Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/12/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
934 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND BRING LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE
HIGH SIERRA. IN ITS WAKE...PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY WITH RESIDUAL CLOUDS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DISTRICT
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE..
DECAYING MOISTURE PLUME IS SAGGING SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH VORT MAX NOTED NORTH OF SACRAMENTO. SHOWERS HAVE
INCREASED IN COVERAGE THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS A RESULT OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT WORKING ON A SATURATED CHUNK OF AIR. HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED USING IT AND SAT/RADAR
TRENDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT
BE THAT GREAT. BASED ON THAT...OPTED EARLIER TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AS ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WERE FURTHER
ADJUSTED DOWN...TO ABOUT 4-8 INCHES.
SPEAKING OF SNOW...WE QUERIED SNOTEL SITES EARLIER THIS EVENING AND
PUSHED OUT LSRS AND A PNS WITH THE ESTIMATED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE
STORM SO FAR. THE AMOUNTS WERE NOT THAT GREAT...GENERALLY 4-7
INCHES...DUE TO US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME BUT ALSO THE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE SNOTEL AT
11KFT EVEN BRIEFLY ROSE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE PAST DAY.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST
FOR THE NEXT 5-7 HOURS THEN QUICKLY DECREASE AS FOLKS WAKE UP
TOMORROW MORNING. WE/LL STILL HAVE SOME GOOD CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AS THE MOIST AIR GETS
BANKED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS S/E OF BAKERSFIELD. SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP SOME BUT NOT MUCH BELOW 7KFT SO NO TRAVEL CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PASSES FOR MONDAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PASSES AND INTO THE DESERTS IN
KERN COUNTY INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXISTING WIND ADVISORY COVERS THAT
WELL THOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO MONITOR IF WINDS DECAY AS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING.
INIGUEZ
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ISSUED 2PM SUNDAY
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE NIGHT)...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DENSE FOG FORMATION
IS PROBABLE IN THE SJ VLY WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AND
THIS COULD SLOW MORNING COMMUTERS TUESDAY WITH A RECURRENCE OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD INTO
CENTRAL CA WITH DRY WEATHER AND MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS
AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THU. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INCLUDING
FROM ANY RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT/MONDAY...WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG TO CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY NORTH OF
KERN COUNTY WED AM. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DUE TO MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE DRY FOR THIS PERIOD AS RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA...WHILE MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS PICKING UP IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SOME REDUCTION IN VIS AND LOWERING OF CIGS...THOUGH OVERALL DON/T
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW MVFR. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE
MONDAY MORNING/AFTER 19Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 02-09 71:2012 45:1923 56:1987 27:1891
KFAT 02-10 75:1961 44:1894 54:1916 29:1965
KFAT 02-11 73:1925 46:2001 53:1970 28:1948
KBFL 02-09 77:2012 42:1919 58:1975 24:1929
KBFL 02-10 79:1961 47:1967 54:1973 23:1929
KBFL 02-11 81:1925 45:1989 56:1925 20:1901
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR
THE CAZ096.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST MONDAY
CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC AND AVN/SHORT TERM...DURFEE
FIRE WEATHER/LONG TERM...INIGUEZ
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1140 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SPOTTER REPORTS IN THE GUNNISON AREA NOW UP
OVER 6 INCHES WITH HEAVY SNOW STILL FALLING. HAVE ADDED THIS AREA
TO THE MIX OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS WE GO MORE CONVECTIVE. HAVE ALSO ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUANS AS ENERGY ON THE TAIL END OF PASSING WAVE DRAGS
THROUGH AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS SHORTLY. NEGATIVE MOTIONS MOVE IN
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON...SO
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED THE DENSE FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO "EXPIRE".
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF MOIST WAVES IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WRN
COLORADO TODAY. RAP MODEL SHOW WIDESPREAD PCPN AND UPDATED POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING AND ACTIVITY WANES THIS
AFTERNOON. DID MAKE ON ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR
THE FAR SOUTH. IN HOUSE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL GUIDANCE AND THE DAY
ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS FROM MONUMENT
VALLEY TO DURANGO. INTRODUCED AFTERNOON THUNDER IN THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
REGARDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WRN COLORADO VALLEYS...APPEARS
THERE WILL BE NO NEED TO EXTEND IT AS RAIN AS CAUSED MIXING WITH
VISIBILITY ABOVE 1 MILE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE NEXT WAVE IN THIS MOIST PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS ARRIVING TO OUR
WESTERN DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE 00Z
RAOB PUSHING ABOVE THE HALF INCH MARK THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING. UNFORTUNATELY THE LIFT WAS NOT VERY ORGANIZED TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION REPORTS FOR THE MOST
PART WERE ON THE LOW SIDE. MOST REPORTING SITES AND WEB CAMS HAVE
SHOWN LULL THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CONSIDERED LOWERING OR REPLACING
HEADLINES FOR TODAY. HOWEVER IN THE END WITH ROAD CONDITIONS STILL
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY DECIDED TO LEAVE AS IS. THE
SAN JUANS WILL BE DROPPING OUT THIS MORNING...AND THOUGH THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY AIDED SNOW EVENT ON MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY
FLOW...DECIDED AGAINST ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AND THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
WITH THE UPPER WAVE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE WITH SOME HIGH AMOUNTS LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE HIGHER PEAKS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING
THROUGH OUR WEST CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE ROTATING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE JET TAKES A DIP SOUTHWARD. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING A DISTINCT DARKENING THIS MORNING MARKING A DIP IN THE TROP
AS AN ILL DEFINED COUPLED JET MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. BOTH
GFS/NAM SHOW THE AXIS OF DILITATION IN THE 650MB REGION FAVORABLE
FOR TIGHTENING THE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVER OUR WEST
CENTRAL CWA...BUT VARY IN WHERE THIS EXACTLY SETS UP. WITH THE
INSTABILITY ARRIVING WITH THE PUSH OF THE LOWERING TROP...SOME BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION/SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVZY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TAVAPUTS AND NORTHERN UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE MONITORED. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON FAVORING THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO END THIS LONG TERM
EVENT. THERE IS CAA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LIKE THE THERMAL
PROFILE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THOUGH PASSING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP SOME HEAVIER SNOW. BEHIND THE WAVE THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY DRIES OUT AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES COOL AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD DROP HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH THE NEW AIR MASS
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WILL SETTLE IN
FOR TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
ON THE HEELS OF A POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT LASTS INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CONUS AND PLACES UTAH AND COLORADO IN WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS THE PREFERRED WIND DIRECTION FOR OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAIN AREAS (PARK/GORE RANGES).
FIRST SHORT WAVE BARELY SKIRTS NRN ROUTT COUNTY ON TUESDAY EVENING...
BUT THE SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE THAT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
STRONGER WITH TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW. PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING
SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC SNOWS FOR THE PARK/GORE RANGES. BUT THERE
ARE TAKEAWAYS...THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS ANTICYCLONIC AND GRADIENT
FLOW WANES WITH TIME. WARMING ALOFT ALLOWS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGIME TO EXIST ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION. QG DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. WILL MONITOR QPF PROGS AND ENSEMBLE
CHARTS TO ASSESS SNOW POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY FOR THE COLORADO NWRN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH PASS. THE CHANCE OF SNOW DIMINISHES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM AND GRADIENT
FLOW LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WARM RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO BY SATURDAY
AND RESULTS IN TEMPS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MEX MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...BUT BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS LIKELY RUNNING TOO COLD GIVEN THE COOL
REGIME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (MOST NOTABLY THE NRN/CENTRAL
VALLEYS...LESS SO FOR THE SRN VALLEYS). HAVE BLENDED THESE VALUES
THAT ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. THE RESULT IS TEMPS ROUGHLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THAT RESEMBLES EARLY SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
SNOW LEVEL CURRENTLY AROUND 6000 FT MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATER THIS
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING DRIVES THE SNOW LEVEL UP.
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED IN EASTERN UT AND WILL CONTINUE TO STOP
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN CO AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING TODAY WITH
UNSTABLE AIR STILL PRESENT. FOG WILL DRIVE DOWN VSBYS TONIGHT AS
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
MOST SITES...BUT PARTICULARLY AT KGJT...KMTJ...AND KCNY. MTNS WILL
BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED DUE TO FOG.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING COZ018-019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
COZ004-010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED THE DENSE FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO "EXPIRE".
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF MOIST WAVES IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WRN
COLORADO TODAY. RAP MODEL SHOW WIDESPREAD PCPN AND UPDATED POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING AND ACTIVITY WANES THIS
AFTERNOON. DID MAKE ON ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR
THE FAR SOUTH. IN HOUSE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL GUIDANCE AND THE DAY
ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS FROM MONUMENT
VALLEY TO DURANGO. INTRODUCED AFTERNOON THUNDER IN THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
REGARDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WRN COLORADO VALLEYS...APPEARS
THERE WILL BE NO NEED TO EXTEND IT AS RAIN AS CAUSED MIXING WITH
VISIBILITY ABOVE 1 MILE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE NEXT WAVE IN THIS MOIST PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS ARRIVING TO OUR
WESTERN DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE 00Z
RAOB PUSHING ABOVE THE HALF INCH MARK THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING. UNFORTUNATELY THE LIFT WAS NOT VERY ORGANIZED TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION REPORTS FOR THE MOST
PART WERE ON THE LOW SIDE. MOST REPORTING SITES AND WEB CAMS HAVE
SHOWN LULL THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CONSIDERED LOWERING OR REPLACING
HEADLINES FOR TODAY. HOWEVER IN THE END WITH ROAD CONDITIONS STILL
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY DECIDED TO LEAVE AS IS. THE
SAN JUANS WILL BE DROPPING OUT THIS MORNING...AND THOUGH THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY AIDED SNOW EVENT ON MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY
FLOW...DECIDED AGAINST ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AND THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
WITH THE UPPER WAVE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE WITH SOME HIGH AMOUNTS LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE HIGHER PEAKS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING
THROUGH OUR WEST CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE ROTATING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE JET TAKES A DIP SOUTHWARD. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING A DISTINCT DARKENING THIS MORNING MARKING A DIP IN THE TROP
AS AN ILL DEFINED COUPLED JET MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. BOTH
GFS/NAM SHOW THE AXIS OF DILITATION IN THE 650MB REGION FAVORABLE
FOR TIGHTENING THE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVER OUR WEST
CENTRAL CWA...BUT VARY IN WHERE THIS EXACTLY SETS UP. WITH THE
INSTABILITY ARRIVING WITH THE PUSH OF THE LOWERING TROP...SOME BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION/SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVZY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TAVAPUTS AND NORTHERN UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE MONITORED. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON FAVORING THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO END THIS LONG TERM
EVENT. THERE IS CAA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LIKE THE THERMAL
PROFILE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THOUGH PASSING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP SOME HEAVIER SNOW. BEHIND THE WAVE THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY DRIES OUT AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES COOL AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD DROP HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH THE NEW AIR MASS
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WILL SETTLE IN
FOR TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
ON THE HEELS OF A POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT LASTS INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CONUS AND PLACES UTAH AND COLORADO IN WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS THE PREFERRED WIND DIRECTION FOR OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAIN AREAS (PARK/GORE RANGES).
FIRST SHORT WAVE BARELY SKIRTS NRN ROUTT COUNTY ON TUESDAY EVENING...
BUT THE SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE THAT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
STRONGER WITH TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW. PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING
SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC SNOWS FOR THE PARK/GORE RANGES. BUT THERE
ARE TAKEAWAYS...THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS ANTICYCLONIC AND GRADIENT
FLOW WANES WITH TIME. WARMING ALOFT ALLOWS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGIME TO EXIST ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION. QG DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. WILL MONITOR QPF PROGS AND ENSEMBLE
CHARTS TO ASSESS SNOW POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY FOR THE COLORADO NWRN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH PASS. THE CHANCE OF SNOW DIMINISHES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM AND GRADIENT
FLOW LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WARM RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO BY SATURDAY
AND RESULTS IN TEMPS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MEX MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...BUT BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS LIKELY RUNNING TOO COLD GIVEN THE COOL
REGIME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (MOST NOTABLY THE NRN/CENTRAL
VALLEYS...LESS SO FOR THE SRN VALLEYS). HAVE BLENDED THESE VALUES
THAT ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. THE RESULT IS TEMPS ROUGHLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THAT RESEMBLES EARLY SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
SNOW LEVEL CURRENTLY AROUND 6000 FT MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATER THIS
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING DRIVES THE SNOW LEVEL UP.
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED IN EASTERN UT AND WILL CONTINUE TO STOP
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN CO AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING TODAY WITH
UNSTABLE AIR STILL PRESENT. FOG WILL DRIVE DOWN VSBYS TONIGHT AS
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
MOST SITES...BUT PARTICULARLY AT KGJT...KMTJ...AND KCNY. MTNS WILL
BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED DUE TO FOG.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
COZ004-010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
954 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED JUST ENOUGH TO LET THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS
EXPECTED...SO WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH NOON. ON THE
PLAINS...RADAR ECHOES HAVE INCREASED ON THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS...SINCE IT SHOULD ONLY SNOW FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AT BEST. THE LATEST RAP MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS BY
ABOUT 21Z AS THE DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
OKAY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...HAVE BEGUN TO SEE INDICATIONS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL
BE RAPIDLY IMPROVING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS...WE SHOULD SEE INCREASED
VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK UP THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS TRAPPING ALL THE FOG OVER THE AREA. A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES MAY MOVE OVER THE AIRPORTS THROUGH ABOUT 22Z...BUT
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...SNOWFALL AND WINDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH LET UP IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY AT THIS HOUR WITH THE FCST AREA IN BETWEEN WAVES OF
MOISTURE RICH PACIFIC AIR. MTN CAMS HARDLY SHOWING ANY SNOWFALL
ON THE PASSES AND UP AT THE EISENHOWER TUNNEL. THAT WILL LIKELY
CHANGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
WAVES OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WAVE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP CURRENTLY PASSING OVER NORTHERN
UTAH/SWRN WYOMING. AT ITS CURRENT SPEED...BEST MOISTURE AND QG
LIFT WILL PASS OVER THE NRN MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS OF COLORADO
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. IT WILL BE A QUICK SHOT WITH NOT MUCH
WIND AS THE STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
LOCAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL INPUTTING THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS...
6.5C/KM LAPSE RATE...275 DEG 25KT 700-500MB MEAN WIND...NEG 3 QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY...MOIST LAYER TO 600 MBS AND A SNOW-WATER RATIO
OF 13:1...GENERATED A 9 HR SNOW TOTAL OF 4-7 INCHES FOR THE MTN
ZONES 31...33 AND 34 ENDING AT 19Z TODAY. THIS BARELY MEETS THE
CRITERIA FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. BUT WITH SO MUCH SNOW
ALREADY ON THE ROADS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...THOUGHT WISE TO ADVISE
THAT MORE SNOW WAS ON THE WAY...ALBEIT NOT MUCH COMPARED TO WHAT
FELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. AGAIN...WIND NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
BIG PROBLEM WITH THIS LAST SHOT OF SNOW. BY AFTERNOON..BELIEVE
WE/LL SEE RATHER QUICK IMPROVEMENT WITH DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ON THE PLAINS...DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG...
SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL DENVER TO FORT
COLLINS. VISIBILITIES IN THIS AREA OF FOG VARYING FROM 1/4 TO
1/16 MILE WHICH IS NOW BEING REPORTED AT DIA. DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA MOMENTARILY AND WILL RUN UNTIL 16Z
THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...PASSING WAVE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS EXPECTED TO FILL SKIES OVER THE PLAINS WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
CAPABLE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER.
OTHERWISE IT/LL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY.
TONIGHT...DRY UP CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
WRAPPING UP IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE. HOWEVER...MODEL SFC AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE AN AREA OF SATURATED AIR
ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DENVER METRO
AREA FROM MID-EVENING ONWARD. THEREFORE WILL ADD FOG TO THIS THIS
AREA IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST.
LONG TERM...THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL STILL BE UNDER A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THEN A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL
BRUSH NORTHERN COLORADO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE
THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES BUT UNDER 50KT.
BIGGER CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR LATE
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AM OVER EAST SLOPES. NAM CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASING TO 60-80KT WED
EVENING WITH STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY DEVELOPING IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PERIOD. SHEAR PROFILE ALSO LOOKS GOOD FOR AMPLIFYING
MOUNTAIN WAVE. TOO EARLY FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH BUT CERTAINLY ONE
MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER SHIFTS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW BUT INITIAL LAPSE RATES WILL
INITIALLY BE ON THE LOW SIDE. MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...DOWNSLOPE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
LEAD TO DRY AND QUITE MILD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. OCCASIONAL WAVE CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK.
BY THIS WEEKEND...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SPREAD BUILD OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD OVER THE STATE. STILL COULD
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AVIATION...LIFR VSBYS IN FOG RANGING FROM 1/4 MILE AND BELOW AT
DENVER AREA TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 15Z...
SUSPECT WE/LL SEE RATHER QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS AS DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWN FROM THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SHOULD GO FROM
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AND REMAIN MVFR WITH
3000-5000 FOOT CLOUD BASES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
DENVER AREA SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z WITH
SHALLOW POCKETS OF FOG FORMING IN LOW LYING AREAS AFTER 06Z. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
656 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED THE DENSE FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO "EXPIRE".
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF MOIST WAVES IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WRN
COLORADO TODAY. RAP MODEL SHOW WIDESPREAD PCPN AND UPDATED POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING AND ACTIVITY WANES THIS
AFTERNOON. DID MAKE ON ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR
THE FAR SOUTH. IN HOUSE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL GUIDANCE AND THE DAY
ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS FROM MONUMENT
VALLEY TO DURANGO. INTRODUCED AFTERNOON THUNDER IN THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
REGARDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WRN COLORADO VALLEYS...APPEARS
THERE WILL BE NO NEED TO EXTEND IT AS RAIN AS CAUSED MIXING WITH
VISIBILITY ABOVE 1 MILE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE NEXT WAVE IN THIS MOIST PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS ARRIVING TO OUR
WESTERN DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE 00Z
RAOB PUSHING ABOVE THE HALF INCH MARK THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING. UNFORTUNATELY THE LIFT WAS NOT VERY ORGANIZED TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION REPORTS FOR THE MOST
PART WERE ON THE LOW SIDE. MOST REPORTING SITES AND WEB CAMS HAVE
SHOWN LULL THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CONSIDERED LOWERING OR REPLACING
HEADLINES FOR TODAY. HOWEVER IN THE END WITH ROAD CONDITIONS STILL
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY DECIDED TO LEAVE AS IS. THE
SAN JUANS WILL BE DROPPING OUT THIS MORNING...AND THOUGH THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY AIDED SNOW EVENT ON MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY
FLOW...DECIDED AGAINST ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AND THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
WITH THE UPPER WAVE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE WITH SOME HIGH AMOUNTS LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE HIGHER PEAKS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING
THROUGH OUR WEST CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE ROTATING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE JET TAKES A DIP SOUTHWARD. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING A DISTINCT DARKENING THIS MORNING MARKING A DIP IN THE TROP
AS AN ILL DEFINED COUPLED JET MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. BOTH
GFS/NAM SHOW THE AXIS OF DILITATION IN THE 650MB REGION FAVORABLE
FOR TIGHTENING THE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVER OUR WEST
CENTRAL CWA...BUT VARY IN WHERE THIS EXACTLY SETS UP. WITH THE
INSTABILITY ARRIVING WITH THE PUSH OF THE LOWERING TROP...SOME BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION/SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVZY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TAVAPUTS AND NORTHERN UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE MONITORED. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON FAVORING THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO END THIS LONG TERM
EVENT. THERE IS CAA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LIKE THE THERMAL
PROFILE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THOUGH PASSING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP SOME HEAVIER SNOW. BEHIND THE WAVE THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY DRIES OUT AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES COOL AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD DROP HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH THE NEW AIR MASS
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WILL SETTLE IN
FOR TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
ON THE HEELS OF A POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT LASTS INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CONUS AND PLACES UTAH AND COLORADO IN WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS THE PREFERRED WIND DIRECTION FOR OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAIN AREAS (PARK/GORE RANGES).
FIRST SHORT WAVE BARELY SKIRTS NRN ROUTT COUNTY ON TUESDAY EVENING...
BUT THE SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE THAT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
STRONGER WITH TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW. PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING
SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC SNOWS FOR THE PARK/GORE RANGES. BUT THERE
ARE TAKEAWAYS...THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS ANTICYCLONIC AND GRADIENT
FLOW WANES WITH TIME. WARMING ALOFT ALLOWS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGIME TO EXIST ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION. QG DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. WILL MONITOR QPF PROGS AND ENSEMBLE
CHARTS TO ASSESS SNOW POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY FOR THE COLORADO NWRN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH PASS. THE CHANCE OF SNOW DIMINISHES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM AND GRADIENT
FLOW LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WARM RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO BY SATURDAY
AND RESULTS IN TEMPS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MEX MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...BUT BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS LIKELY RUNNING TOO COLD GIVEN THE COOL
REGIME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (MOST NOTABLY THE NRN/CENTRAL
VALLEYS...LESS SO FOR THE SRN VALLEYS). HAVE BLENDED THESE VALUES
THAT ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. THE RESULT IS TEMPS ROUGHLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THAT RESEMBLES EARLY SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
WIDESPREAD -RA/-SN WITH SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 6K-7K FEET BRING IFR
CIGS/VIS TO THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z. FOR DESERT VALLEY
TAF SITES...LOCAL VIS BELOW 3SM IN BR IS POSSIBLE WITH OCNL -RA
THROUGH 18Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT -RA/-SN
TAPER OFF TO SCT -SHRA/-SHSN WITH SNOW LEVEL AROUND 5K-6K FEET.
AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING...MOUNTAIN -SHSN WILL BE ENDING WITH VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES. LOCAL PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS OR
VALLEY BOTTOMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
COZ004-010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
622 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF MOIST WAVES IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WRN
COLORADO TODAY. RAP MODEL SHOW WIDESPREAD PCPN AND UPDATED POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING AND ACTIVITY WANES THIS
AFTERNOON. DID MAKE ON ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR
THE FAR SOUTH. IN HOUSE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL GUIDANCE AND THE DAY
ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS FROM MONUMENT
VALLEY TO DURANGO. INTRODUCED AFTERNOON THUNDER IN THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
REGARDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WRN COLORADO VALLEYS...APPEARS
THERE WILL BE NO NEED TO EXTEND IT AS RAIN AS CAUSED MIXING WITH
VISIBILITY ABOVE 1 MILE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE NEXT WAVE IN THIS MOIST PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS ARRIVING TO OUR
WESTERN DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE 00Z
RAOB PUSHING ABOVE THE HALF INCH MARK THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING. UNFORTUNATELY THE LIFT WAS NOT VERY ORGANIZED TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION REPORTS FOR THE MOST
PART WERE ON THE LOW SIDE. MOST REPORTING SITES AND WEB CAMS HAVE
SHOWN LULL THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CONSIDERED LOWERING OR REPLACING
HEADLINES FOR TODAY. HOWEVER IN THE END WITH ROAD CONDITIONS STILL
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY DECIDED TO LEAVE AS IS. THE
SAN JUANS WILL BE DROPPING OUT THIS MORNING...AND THOUGH THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY AIDED SNOW EVENT ON MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY
FLOW...DECIDED AGAINST ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AND THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
WITH THE UPPER WAVE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE WITH SOME HIGH AMOUNTS LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE HIGHER PEAKS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING
THROUGH OUR WEST CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE ROTATING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE JET TAKES A DIP SOUTHWARD. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING A DISTINCT DARKENING THIS MORNING MARKING A DIP IN THE TROP
AS AN ILL DEFINED COUPLED JET MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. BOTH
GFS/NAM SHOW THE AXIS OF DILITATION IN THE 650MB REGION FAVORABLE
FOR TIGHTENING THE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVER OUR WEST
CENTRAL CWA...BUT VARY IN WHERE THIS EXACTLY SETS UP. WITH THE
INSTABILITY ARRIVING WITH THE PUSH OF THE LOWERING TROP...SOME BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION/SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVZY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TAVAPUTS AND NORTHERN UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE MONITORED. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON FAVORING THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO END THIS LONG TERM
EVENT. THERE IS CAA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LIKE THE THERMAL
PROFILE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THOUGH PASSING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP SOME HEAVIER SNOW. BEHIND THE WAVE THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY DRIES OUT AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES COOL AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD DROP HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH THE NEW AIR MASS
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WILL SETTLE IN
FOR TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
ON THE HEELS OF A POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT LASTS INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CONUS AND PLACES UTAH AND COLORADO IN WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS THE PREFERRED WIND DIRECTION FOR OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAIN AREAS (PARK/GORE RANGES).
FIRST SHORT WAVE BARELY SKIRTS NRN ROUTT COUNTY ON TUESDAY EVENING...
BUT THE SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE THAT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
STRONGER WITH TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW. PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING
SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC SNOWS FOR THE PARK/GORE RANGES. BUT THERE
ARE TAKEAWAYS...THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS ANTICYCLONIC AND GRADIENT
FLOW WANES WITH TIME. WARMING ALOFT ALLOWS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGIME TO EXIST ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION. QG DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. WILL MONITOR QPF PROGS AND ENSEMBLE
CHARTS TO ASSESS SNOW POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY FOR THE COLORADO NWRN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH PASS. THE CHANCE OF SNOW DIMINISHES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM AND GRADIENT
FLOW LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WARM RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO BY SATURDAY
AND RESULTS IN TEMPS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MEX MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...BUT BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS LIKELY RUNNING TOO COLD GIVEN THE COOL
REGIME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (MOST NOTABLY THE NRN/CENTRAL
VALLEYS...LESS SO FOR THE SRN VALLEYS). HAVE BLENDED THESE VALUES
THAT ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. THE RESULT IS TEMPS ROUGHLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THAT RESEMBLES EARLY SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
WIDESPREAD -RA/-SN WITH SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 6K-7K FEET BRING IFR
CIGS/VIS TO THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z. FOR DESERT VALLEY
TAF SITES...LOCAL VIS BELOW 3SM IN BR IS POSSIBLE WITH OCNL -RA
THROUGH 18Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT -RA/-SN
TAPER OFF TO SCT -SHRA/-SHSN WITH SNOW LEVEL AROUND 5K-6K FEET.
AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING...MOUNTAIN -SHSN WILL BE ENDING WITH VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES. LOCAL PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS OR
VALLEY BOTTOMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ009.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MST THIS MORNING COZ006-011-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
COZ004-010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
925 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014
.UPDATE...
A NORTHEAST SURGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...HAS RESULTED IN LOW
STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AS AN AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADS FROM
THE WEST. SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS NEAR THE FL/GA LINE AT 02Z. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR STEADY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK NORTH A BIT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
LOW...BUT COULD TREND DOWN ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FAR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH VSBYS 1-3SM
IN FOG AT THE JACKSONVILLE TAF SITES. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NAM12 AND RUC MODELS
SHOW NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GNV
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY 18Z AS FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH. EXPECT
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR 13Z-17Z.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH/NORTHEAST SURGE CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST THIS NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE DECREASING SOMEWHAT TOWARD MORNING...AS THE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURGE HAS RESULTED IN FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE NEARSHORE. EXPECT NEARSHORE VISIBILITIES TO BE
RESTRICTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIFTING AS RAIN BEGINS TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 37 43 34 55 / 50 90 80 10
SSI 43 52 39 53 / 50 80 80 10
JAX 46 61 44 57 / 40 80 80 10
SGJ 51 69 48 57 / 30 70 70 20
GNV 49 73 46 59 / 20 70 70 10
OCF 51 77 51 61 / 10 70 70 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ST AUGUSTINE TO
FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
STRUBLE/ZIBURA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
443 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 02 UTC regional surface analysis showed a weak trough from the
Piedmont through Southeast AL, a 1020 mb high pressure system
centered in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and an approaching cold
front from the TN-GA border through central MS. Vapor imagery and
upper air data showed a broad, very shallow trough over much of
the eastern CONUS, with several minor impulses embedded in the
fast westerly flow. A potent trough was moving ashore CA, and this
system will help drive a potentially significant winter storm
across portions of the South (but not our area) mid week.
So far fog has been very spotty, but some of the NWP guidance
(mainly the HRRR) forecasts a little more fog development by dawn,
especially across North FL and South Central GA. Any fog that
develops should dissipate by mid to late morning. The
aforementioned cold front will limp into Southeast AL and
Southwest GA later this afternoon, with only slight rain chances
(and light QPF). Other than an increase in clouds, the front will
have little impact on our weather today. Highs will range from
about average (mid 60s) around Dothan and Albany, to slightly
above average in FL (lower 70s).
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The main issue for our local area through the short term will be
the track and strength of the approaching surface low which is
forecast to move through the area on Wednesday. Ahead of it,
increasing moisture and lift along a warm frontal boundary will
favor increased rain chances over the northwest half of the area
starting on Tuesday. This will gradually spread over the rest of
the area Tuesday night and especially Wednesday. There are some
model differences with respect to the track of the surface low
along the Gulf coast with the 10/00z GFS a southern outlier south
of Apalachicola and the 10/00z NAM much farther to the north
tracking through southern Georgia. This makes a difference for
thunderstorm chances in our area as a farther north track would
open part of the area to the warm sector and give an increased
risk for a stronger storm or two. The ECMWF sided more with the
NAM to the north, and the UKMET was a compromise between the
NAM/ECMWF and GFS, tracking near Apalachicola. We gave a slight
preference to the more northern tracks, but not quite as far north
as the NAM/ECMWF. This forecast would bring the warm sector just
inland from the coast, and as a result a mention of thunderstorms
was maintained in the forecast on Wednesday for coastal counties
as well as the marine area. Forecast shear values are rather
strong and there does appear to be a small sliver of SBCAPE in the
warm sector, so a stronger storm or two can`t be ruled out near
the coast if the warm sector penetrates inland. However, most
areas will just see a soaking rain. The high temperature forecast
on Wednesday is more uncertain than normal due to the different
low tracks and the extent to which the cold air damming north of
the area may sneak into some of our Georgia counties.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Strong shortwave will cross SE region Wed night into Thurs
strengthening low. By sunrise Thurs...this low has lifted well
Newd to Carolina coast dragging cold front to S/Cntrl FL. 30-60%
W-E POPS Wed night. Proximity of warm boundary and wrap around
moisture will keep small chance POPs east in forecast into Thus.
With enhanced wedge...some guidance shows temps approaching
freezing by sunrise at Nrn most sites so future shifts will
monitor for possible wintry mix mainly nrn most GA counties. In
its wake...Ern trough moves offshore and zonal flow reestablishes
itself by Fri night. At surface...high pressure builds in across
Gulf of Mex. Under light winds and clearing skies...sunrise temps
will approach freezing by sunrise Fri at the coldest locations. As
the high moves ESE...temps should rebound Fri into the weekend
with max temps reaching the 70s on Sat.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06z Tuesday] The main forecast challenge is fog potential.
The latest NWP/MOS guidance offer conflicting forecasts, while the
02 UTC HRRR forecasts fog development mainly at KVLD and KECP. This
run has actually initialized well so far and has been used more for
this forecast, while still maintaining some continuity with our
previous forecasts. We expect periods of IFR Vis at KVLD, KTLH, and
KECP, with possibly even VLIFR Vis at KVLD and KECP. VFR conditions
will return areawide by mid to late morning. By afternoon MVFR cigs
will develop at KDHN as a cold front moves into the region.
Although the PoP will increase over the next 24 hours, it was too
low to mention on this TAF package.
&&
.Marine...
Low winds and seas are expected to continue through Tuesday as the
pressure gradient remains weak. However, an area of low pressure
will move along the Gulf coast Tuesday night and Wednesday and
sweep a strong cold front through the area. Winds behind the
front are expected to increase to exercise caution levels late on
Wednesday with advisory level winds possible Wednesday night into
Thursday.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least Wednesday.
&&
.Hydrology...
The bulk of our next rain event will be Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday night. Storm total accumulations are currently projected
to range from around 0.75 inches across the southeast big bend to
just over 2 inches across the far northwest part of the area.
While such values could cause an increase in flow/stage levels,
flooding is not expected to be a significant concern.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 71 47 70 49 64 / 0 10 20 50 90
Panama City 65 52 65 51 63 / 10 30 40 70 90
Dothan 66 47 54 42 58 / 20 60 80 80 90
Albany 67 46 55 40 52 / 10 50 70 80 90
Valdosta 70 45 68 47 61 / 0 10 20 50 90
Cross City 71 43 74 51 70 / 0 0 10 20 70
Apalachicola 64 49 67 52 65 / 0 20 20 40 90
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
745 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014
...SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WITH BOTH
SYSTEMS TRACKING NORTHEAST OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TUESDAY EVENING...PER ONGOING RADAR TRENDS RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP COVERAGE WILL STILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE POISED TO CROSS THE
SANTEE RIVER INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN...LATEST RUC13 GUIDANCE DEPICTS SURFACE WET
BULB TEMPERATURES 32F OR COLDER SPREADING AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...INTO CHARLESTON COUNTY EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-16 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
SAVANNAH BY DAYBREAK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR GREATER AREAL
COVERAGE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS PROGRESS OF
COLD AIR AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINE EXPANSION.
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY LATE AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO
INTERACT AND PHASE WITH A VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION LATE IN THE FORM OF DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET THAT STRETCHES FROM EAST TENNESSEE TO
WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE...THE WELL
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
MATURE AS A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE. FROM
A PRECIPITATION PERSPECTIVE...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
BREAK IN COVERAGE THAT EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST ALL THE WAY TO THE
ARKLATEX. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME NVA IN THE WAKE OF
THE CURRENT PASSING SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF THE ORGANIZING SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. AS SUCH...WE WILL SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THE ONLY CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL DRYING IN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE DEEP
FORCING AND PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW A LULL INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH LATE
EVENING...RAMPING UP TO CATEGORICAL LATE.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TONIGHT REVOLVES AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING. THE WELL
PLACED DAMMING HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY COLD
AIR. IN FACT...CURRENT UPSTREAM OBS SHOW THAT THE FREEZING LINE IS
ONLY A FEW COUNTIES AWAY TO THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...THE INITIAL
FALL TO AND AROUND FREEZING WILL OCCUR DURING THE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN
VERY LATE TONIGHT...FROM ABOUT 3-4AM AND AFTER...RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TRENDS OF THE 11/12Z NAM WHICH HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THE TIME. BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...THE FREEZING
LINE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS AN AREA THAT RUNS ROUGHLY FROM
JAMESTOWN...TO NORTH CHARLESTON...TO WALTERBORO...TO HAMPTON...AND
MILLEN. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR FAR
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH WILL SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. WE DO NOT EXPECT TO REACH ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
WATCH/WARNING CONFIGURATION HAVE BEEN MADE BASED ON ACCUMULATIONS
EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A ICE STORM
WARNING FOR CANDLER AND BULLOCH COUNTIES...AND THE WATCH HAS BEEN
CONVERTED TO A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST
SC/GA...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RIDE EAST INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHEAST FL/GA
COAST NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THESE LOWS SHOULD TRACK SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUT SOME OF OUR GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF A
SHARP/DEEP UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE
1-2 INCHES OF QPF IS LIKELY. OF COURSE THE BIG CHALLENGE IS IN
REGARDS TO TEMPS AND THUS THE ULTIMATE AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN. OUR
LATEST THINKING IS MOST IN LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH KEEPS TEMPS AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL OR MOST OF THE DAY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO SAINT STEPHEN TO ALLENDALE TO MILLEN.
FARTHER EAST OF THIS LINE TOWARD CHARLESTON...GREYS AND CLAXTON
TEMPS SHOULD START OUT AROUND FREEZING IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS...BEFORE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE TOWARD THE COAST WE EXPECT JUST A
COLD RAIN. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE COULD ACCUMULATE WELL
INLAND DURING THE DAY AND THIS IS WHERE THE ICE STORM WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WARNING AREA FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND CHARLESTON TO TARBORO TO
CLAXTON AND REIDSVILLE.
WE EXPECT THE FREEZING LINE TO MIGRATE EAST TOWARD THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM CHARLESTON TO BEAUFORT TO SAVANNAH. THE
HEAVIER/STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS WELL INLAND.
THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TAKING ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE WITH IT AND THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY AND CHILLY
DAY WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND RANGING
TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A MILDER RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AROUND 60
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
INTO TO START OFF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY
WHILE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS THEN ON THE HORIZON AS WE BEGIN TO SEE
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE PEAKING IN THE LOW/MID 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE 09Z-15Z WED TIME
PERIOD AT KSAV...AND BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED
MORNING AT KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PREVAILING IFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE REGION. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN AT
THE CHS TERMINAL...MAINLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIKELY PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ONGOING HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
TONIGHT...THE PINCHED NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BECOME FURTHER
ENHANCED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE AND OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HIGHER END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOCAL PINCHING
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE THE GALE
WATCH WAS PREVIOUSLY PLACED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WINDS ACROSS
THIS ZONE WILL GUST TO 35 KT STARTING LATE TONIGHT...AND THE WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE
FOR NEEDING ADDITIONAL GALE WARNINGS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN UPGRADE. THE HARBOR WILL ALSO SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT THERE. THANKS TO THE STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW...SEAS HAVE REMAINED WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 6-9 FT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR 20 NM...AND UP TO 10 FEET FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DEVELOPING LOW THAT THE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT MORE
LAX AND CORRESPONDING WINDS A LITTLE BIT LESS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VERY POOR MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES INLAND AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST MAINLY EAST OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
ULTIMATELY THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW AND/OR LOWS BUT FOR NOW WE THINK THE WORST CONDITIONS
WILL BE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS
NEAR 35 KT ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FEET. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE GALES BUT ADVISORIES STILL APPEAR
LIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND COLD
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH COULD
BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.
HIGH SURF...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-10 FEET OVER THE SC NEAR
SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS PEAK WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS COULD PRODUCE
BREAKING WAVES OF AT LEAST 5 FT AT THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CHARLESTON COUNTY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS COULD PUSH TIDE LEVELS HIGH
ENOUGH TO CREATE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST. THUS...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR GAZ101-114-115.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR GAZ087-088-099-100.
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR SCZ047-050-052.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/RJB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
522 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEFORE A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DESCENDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...THIN HIGH CLOUD SPREADING OVER THE REGION WITH QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. GOES FOG PRODUCTS STARTING TO HINT AT
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH GEORGIA. WE HAVE
ADDED A SMALL AREA OF PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FROM STATESBORO TO
HINESVILLE AND GLENNVILLE. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES
THIS MORNING GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDING
TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL.WE HAVE SEEN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT AND COLDER INLAND AREAS WERE FALLING INTO THE
30S.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BANK UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
LATER TODAY WHILE THE PRES PATTERN BUCKLES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. WE ARE GOING TO SQUEAK OUT ONE LAST
MILD DAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR INVADES THE REGION INTO MID WEEK.
OUR SKY COVER FORECAST BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM/GEM PROGS TODAY
WHICH INDICATE A BIT OF AN AFTERNOON BREAK BETWEEN THE HIGHER CLOUDS
EARLY AND INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS LATE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
THE MOST PART TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS LIKELY TO REACH 70 IN SOME OF
OUR COASTAL SE GEORGIA ZONES AND SOLID MID 60S IN SOUTH CAROLINA.
WE FOLLOWED RAP/HRRR POSITIONS OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHILE A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC REGION EXPANDS OVER THE SE
STATES AS A CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS. RAPIDLY
LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST RAINS
WILL BREAK OUT NORTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE NEARING DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DO A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL
OVERNIGHT...MOST NOTABLE OVER NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT STALLING JUST SOUTH THE AREA. ENHANCED FORCING FROM AN H5
SHORTWAVE ENTERING FROM OUR WEST AND A FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE H25
JET ALOFT SUGGEST RAIN WILL EXPAND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WHILE DEEP
MOISTURE EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY OVER INLAND LOCATIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND RAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOW 40 TEMPS INLAND AND LOW/MID 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPS APPROACH FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE WEDGE OF HIGH
INLAND. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...BUT A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE TO
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING MID LVL TROUGH RESULTS IN
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DEEPENING AND SHIFTING
QUICKLY NORTHEAST FROM THE AREA INTO EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN ISSUE OVER THE PERIOD WILL BE WHEN TEMPS DROP NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING WEDGE WILL WARM LITTLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP WARM NOSE
ALOFT TO SUFFICIENTLY MELT ANY ICE CRYSTALS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AROUND FREEZING WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES.
SINCE MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE THE WEDGE ALL THAT WELL...THE
POTENTIAL IS EVEN THERE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR CLOSER TO
THE COAST. AT THIS TIME...OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES COULD EXPERIENCE
UP TO 1/4 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINE BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
DEPARTING SFC LOW AND TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AS A RESULT TO THE
EXPECTED EVENT...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR INLAND
COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
STARTING AT 12 AM WEDNESDAY AND ENDING THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS CLOSELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINE OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW
THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD POSSIBLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY...BEFORE PEAKING IN THE LOW/MID 60S ON
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID
40S THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. LOW END RISK OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT
THE TERMINALS. BUT FOG STABILITY INDICES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE
AND WE WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED OUR CROSS-OVER TEMPS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PREVAILING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE AREA WHILE CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ON THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY AND IS
REPLACED BY BROADER HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
QUITE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AHEAD OF A BIG
WEATHER CHANGE MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS RATHER VARIABLE WITH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS TODAY WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SOME FAIRLY LARGE SECOND
PERIOD MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING THE NE SURGE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
TIMING THE SURGE SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BECOMES
VERY TRICKY AND BETTER SURGING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST MAY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
BE ISSUED OFF THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH AREAS LATER TODAY ONCE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. WITH THE PINCHED
GRADIENT AND SURGING NE FLOW...SEAS WILL BUILD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FROM NORTHERN WATERS TO SOUTHERN WATERS
TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES BETWEEN A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND AND A SFC LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WESTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN GENERAL...WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK BETWEEN 25-30 KT OVER THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHILE SEAS BUILD UP TO
7-9 FT...HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS ON FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
721 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
A weak cold front/surface boundary will drop south across
Nebraska overnight as an upper level trough crosses the Rockies
and moves out into the northern plains. NAM and GFS indicated an
increase in cloud cover will precede this upper level disturbance
so given the increase in cloud cover and a southwest wind at 10 to
15 mph will continue to favor the previous forecast with lows
overnight mainly in the teens for western Kansas. The cooler
temperatures will be where the heavier snowfall fell Monday night.
There will also be a chance for some freezing fog overnight based
on the south/slightly southeast wind direction during the first
half of the night along with mostly clear skies. HRRR also was
suggesting a period of reduced visibilities across south central
and portions of western Kansas until the winds begin to veer more
to the west after midnight. At this time dense fog is not
anticipated.
Morning clouds will give way to mostly sunny conditions on
Wednesday as the upper level disturbance moves into the Mid
Mississippi Valley. The weak cold front/surface boundary will
briefly move into the western Kansas early in the day. Despite the
frontal passage the 925mb to 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday
will be 2c to 4c warmer when compared to temperatures at 00z
Wednesday. Using this as a guide for highs and taking into account
snow cover across much of western Kansas the afternoon
temperatures are expected to range from the mid 30s to upper 40s.
The upper 40s will be mainly confined to extreme southwest Kansas
where there is little to no cover.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
The mid to high level flow will remain fairly zonal through the
extended period, with embedded shortwave troughs bringing periodic
weak cold fronts through western Kansas. The main problem with the
temperature forecast is the effect of snow cover. Melting will be a
slow process, especially since ground temperatures are below
freezing. The warming trend will be interrupted by a pacific cold
front that will knock highs in the 60s Saturday into the 50s by
Sunday and Monday.
The models indicate low amplitude but deep upper troughing off
of the west coast by Feb 18-19th. This pattern would result in broad
west-southwest mid to high level flow regime across the high plains,
with lee troughing and very mild temperatures. Highs could reach
well into the 60s and 70s by February 18th.
The models are advertising a deep upper level trough in the western
United States by Feb 20th, with strong lee troughing by Feb
19th-20th. Highs will be in the 70s south of a frontal boundary over
the southern plains and probably extending into southern Kansas, with
cooler 60s across the central Plains. Persistent low level flow
from the Gulf of Mexico will result in 55-60F dewpoints into the
southern plains by Feb 19-20th. Eventually as the upper level trough
approaches the plains by the Feb 21st-23rd time frame,
thunderstorms could develop. Unless the system closes off and
moves very slowly, climatology suggests that the moist axis will
be over eastern Kansas, with drier air further west. However,
recall that an upper level trough and moisture return on February
23, 2007 resulted in severe weather, including F1 tornadoes in
Ford and Meade counties and 1 inch hail in Seward county. But
severe weather in February is exceedingly rare across western
Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 718 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
Visibility may fall into the IFR range under 3 miles at the local
terminals for a few hours overnight. If this does occur, it is not
expected to last long as surface winds will be shifting west and
then northerly following a weak surface cold front by around 10
UTC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 16 35 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 16 36 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 23 50 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 17 42 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 17 34 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
P28 10 35 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
455 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014
AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MORNING STRATUS LINGERING
AND MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM COLORADO. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 40S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS STRENGTHENING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE THE
TIMING OF THE LEE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FROM MELTING SNOW...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT FREEZING FOG WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHEN THE LEE TROUGH MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT...WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE FOG BY
MIXING IN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE HRRR...NAM AND LAMP GUIDANCE ALL
SUGGEST FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...BUT FOR VARYING LOCATIONS. SIDED WITH
THE HRRR ON FOG CHANCES AS THE LOCATIONS MORE ACCURATELY REFLECTED
THE ANTICIPATED SCENARIO. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SETTLE DOWN BEHIND THE LEE TROUGH BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE TIME TO WATCH CLOSELY WILL
BE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THESE
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY KANSAS. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
FOR TOMORROW...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. AS WITH TODAY...IT WAS
HARD TO PINPOINT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH THE SNOW FIELD
REMAINING BUT WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES. BASICALLY TOOK A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH A ONE DEGREE NUDGE UP FOR TOMORROW.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF CLOUDINESS ANTICIPATED. THIS COULD LIMIT WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON MAY HELP OVERCOME SOME OF THE INCOMING CLOUDINESS. FARTHER
EAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WARMING AS THEY
WILL HAVE PASSED OVER MANY MILES OF SNOW COVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY MUNDANE IN REGARD TO PRECIP. CHANCES AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE
MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE NAILING DOWN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS SEVERAL FRONTS MOVE THROUGH IN ADDITION TO
ESTIMATING HOW MUCH SNOW PACK WILL BE LEFT TO AFFECT TEMPERATES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WARMING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THREE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ACCOMPANYING EACH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WILL BE A COLD FRONT. BEHIND
EACH SHORT WAVE TROUGH A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HELPING TO NEGATE THE
EFFECTS OF THE BRIEF SPELL OF COOLER AIR. AFTER MONDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH MCK AND GLD WITH AREAS OF MVFR DUE
TO HAZE/FOG AND OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES OF 3-5 MILES BETWEEN 00Z-
06Z.
WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH SNOWMELT HAS OCCURRED. AND
WITH THE DENSE HIGHER CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO TANK IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING SUNSET. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AREAS
OF HAZE AND VISIBILITY OF 5-7 MILES TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO FROST
OUT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 3-5 MILES. AFTER 13Z...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR WITH
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AFTER 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
400 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
...Updated for long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
Models were in good agreement with moving an upper level
disturbance from Nevada to the central Rockies by late this
afternoon. This upper level disturbance will then cross the
central high plains early tonight. As this upper level disturbance
approaches mid level frontogenesis will improve along the 700mb
baroclinic zone. This improving mid level forcing along with a
moist upslope flow in the lower levels will likely result snow
redeveloping by late day west of highway 83. The 700mb baroclinic
zone is initially forecast to remain nearly stationary early this
evening as the upper level disturbance approaches the area from the
west. Given that this forcing is expected to remain nearly
stationary for 3-5 hours as upper level dynamics improve early
this evening the potential exists for a band of snow accumulations
of 2 to 3 inches. At this time however the exact location of where
this band of heavier snowfall will set up is unclear with each
model offering slightly different solution. At this time based on
the latest trend of the HRRR and RAP have decided to lean towards
the slightly further south solution and therefore will issue a
winter weather advisory for locations along south southwest of a
Dodge City to Garden City line.
The snow will taper off from west to east after midnight as the
upper level disturbance crosses western Kansas. low level moisture
and weak southeast winds may give rise to lingering low clouds and
possible areas of fog. Given expected cloud cover overnight will
stay close to the previous forecast for all but the west central
Kansas where the potential for some clearing towards daybreak
appears more likely.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
The mid to high level flow will remain fairly zonal through the
extended period, with embedded shortwave troughs bringing periodic
weak cold fronts through western Kansas. The main problem with the
temperature forecast is the effect of snow cover. Melting will be
a slow process, especially since ground temperatures are below
freezing. A gradual warming trend can be expected through Saturday
as the snow melt continues, with highs possibly reaching into the
60s or even low 70s by Saturday, depending on snow cover by then.
After a brief cooldown Sunday and Monday in the wake of a shortwave
trough, the models indicate low amplitude but deep upper troughing
off of the west coast by Feb 18-19Th. This pattern would result in
broad west-southwest mid to high level flow across the high plains,
with lee troughing and very mild temperatures. Highs could reach
well into the 60s and 70s by February 19th.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014
Improving mid level forcing ahead of quick moving upper level
disturbance will produce favorable conditions for a period of
steady snow at GCK and DDC early tonight. Low MVFR or IFR ceilings
and/or visibilities will be possible with this steadier snowfall
between roughly 21z and 06z. Prior to snow developing VFR
conditions can be expected. East/southeast winds at 10kts or less
will gradually veer more south/southeast overnight as a surface
ridge axis moves southeast across Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 4 28 14 33 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 5 30 16 37 / 80 0 0 0
EHA 10 38 21 49 / 80 10 0 0
LBL 7 32 20 38 / 80 10 0 0
HYS 3 26 14 36 / 30 0 0 0
P28 7 24 14 37 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR
KSZ043-044-061>064-075>081-086>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1239 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
...Updated Synopsis and short term discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
At 12z Monday a 500mb -39c upper level trough was located near
the western Great Lakes with another upper level low located off
the west coast of British Columbia. In between these two systems a
weaker upper level disturbance was observed over Nevada and
southern Idaho. A +90kt 300mb jet streak extended east from the
base of the Nevada upper level disturbance into southeast
Colorado. Another 300mb jet steak appear to extend from southeast
Wyoming into northern Kansas. A 700mb temperature gradient was
located across western Kansas at 12z Monday with temperatures
ranging from +2c at Amarillo to -5c at Dodge City to -10c at North
Platte. An 850mb ridge axis was located over western Kansas this
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
Models were in good agreement with moving an upper level
disturbance from Nevada to the central Rockies by late this
afternoon. This upper level disturbance will then cross the
central high plains early tonight. As this upper level disturbance
approaches mid level frontogenesis will improve along the 700mb
baroclinic zone. This improving mid level forcing along with a
moist upslope flow in the lower levels will likely result snow
redeveloping by late day west of highway 83. The 700mb baroclinic
zone is initially forecast to remain nearly stationary early this
evening as the upper level disturbance approaches the area from the
west. Given that this forcing is expected to remain nearly
stationary for 3-5 hours as upper level dynamics improve early
this evening the potential exists for a band of snow accumulations
of 2 to 3 inches. At this time however the exact location of where
this band of heavier snowfall will set up is unclear with each
model offering slightly different solution. At this time based on
the latest trend of the HRRR and RAP have decided to lean towards
the slightly further south solution and therefore will issue a
winter weather advisory for locations along south southwest of a
Dodge City to Garden City line.
The snow will taper off from west to east after midnight as the
upper level disturbance crosses western Kansas. low level moisture
and weak southeast winds may give rise to lingering low clouds and
possible areas of fog. Given expected cloud cover overnight will
stay close to the previous forecast for all but the west central
Kansas where the potential for some clearing towards daybreak
appears more likely.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014
The extended forecast looks dry with an upper level ridge building
across the western US this week then shifting eastward to the Plains
this weekend. A series of upper level shortwave are progged to move
through the Northern Plains this week but look to only affect the
wind direction and a slight increase in clouds across western
Kansas. A downslope component of the wind is expected this week into
the weekend with winds meandering from the southwest to northwest as
the aforementioned upper level disturbances move through the
Northern Plains. A warming trend is expected during the extended
period with highs starting out Tuesday ranging from the upper 20s
across central Kansas to around 40 degrees across the KS/CO border
then warming into the upper 50s and lower 60s by this weekend. Lows
will start out Wednesday morning in the upper teens and lower 20s
increasing into the 30s by this weekend. One caveat with the
increased temperatures is how quickly the snowpack across the region
will melt. Any snowpack remaining by late this week could decrease
temperatures across that area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014
Improving mid level forcing ahead of quick moving upper level
disturbance will produce favorable conditions for a period of
steady snow at GCK and DDC early tonight. Low MVFR or IFR ceilings
and/or visibilities will be possible with this steadier snowfall
between roughly 21z and 06z. Prior to snow developing VFR
conditions can be expected. East/southeast winds at 10kts or less
will gradually veer more south/southeast overnight as a surface
ridge axis moves southeast across Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 4 28 20 35 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 5 30 21 36 / 80 0 0 0
EHA 10 38 26 49 / 80 10 0 0
LBL 7 32 22 38 / 80 10 0 0
HYS 3 26 20 36 / 30 0 0 0
P28 7 24 17 37 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ this afternoon
to 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-075>081-
086>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
...Updated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
As the next upper tropospheric jet streak continues to approach
tonight, there will be an increase in the response in the 800-600mb
layer (particularly noted at 700mb) as an increase in deformation
and convergence along the slowly southward moving mid level
baroclinic zone. The latest runs of the HRRR are starting to line up
nicely with other mesoscale models and even coarser global models
with a west-northwest to east-southeast axis of light to moderate
snow. The zone of 700mb frontogenesis will only be strongest over
any one location for about 3 or 4 hours before quickly shifting off
to the east. The fast duration of the event alone will limit
potential accumulations, however during the height of the snowfall,
rates could be on the order of one-half to three-quarters inch per
hour. Placement of the heaviest snow band(s) is also still somewhat
in question, but feel pretty confident it (they) will ultimately lie
somewhere along/north of Highway 50 and south of Highway 4. The
winter weather advisory that was issued midday encompasses this
region of the forecast area for a general 1 to 3 inch accumulation.
Given the expected banded nature of the event and forward motion of
the frontogenesis somewhat parallel to band orientation, some
isolated amounts in excess of 3 inches will be possible. Global and
mesoscale models both show the meso-alpha scale frontogenesis
weakening toward daybreak as it shifts toward south-central Kansas,
so will be going with slightly lower amounts across the
Stafford-Pratt-Barber County zone. We went ahead and removed the
snow out of the forecast for the bulk of the day Monday except for
the very end of the day across far southwest Kansas. The rest of the
forecast was left unchanged as it appeared to be in pretty good
shape (regarding temperatures, wind, etc.)
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014
The extended forecast looks dry with an upper level ridge building
across the western US this week then shifting eastward to the Plains
this weekend. A series of upper level shortwave are progged to move
through the Northern Plains this week but look to only affect the
wind direction and a slight increase in clouds across western
Kansas. A downslope component of the wind is expected this week into
the weekend with winds meandering from the southwest to northwest as
the aforementioned upper level disturbances move through the
Northern Plains. A warming trend is expected during the extended
period with highs starting out Tuesday ranging from the upper 20s
across central Kansas to around 40 degrees across the KS/CO border
then warming into the upper 50s and lower 60s by this weekend. Lows
will start out Wednesday morning in the upper teens and lower 20s
increasing into the 30s by this weekend. One caveat with the
increased temperatures is how quickly the snowpack across the region
will melt. Any snowpack remaining by late this week could decrease
temperatures across that area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
An area of light snow will continue to propagate through western
and central Kansas through the early morning hours. During the
first few hours of this TAF period, look for MVFR to IFR ceilings
and IFR visibilities to prevail. The area of snow will be moving
out of western Kansas after 10z. Visibilities should improve into
the MVFR/VFR categories. MVFR ceilings and visibilities can be
expected, however there may be a period between 12z and 15z of
IFR visibilities in mist. Later in the period, we are expecting
ceilings to lower into the IFR category once again.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 16 6 30 20 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 18 8 33 21 / 10 20 0 0
EHA 24 14 40 26 / 20 30 10 0
LBL 21 10 35 22 / 20 20 10 0
HYS 13 2 28 20 / 20 10 0 0
P28 17 7 28 17 / 60 20 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-076>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1156 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
As the next upper tropospheric jet streak continues to approach
tonight, there will be an increase in the response in the 800-600mb
layer (particularly noted at 700mb) as an increase in deformation
and convergence along the slowly southward moving mid level
baroclinic zone. The latest runs of the HRRR are starting to line up
nicely with other mesoscale models and even coarser global models
with a west-northwest to east-southeast axis of light to moderate
snow. The zone of 700mb frontogenesis will only be strongest over
any one location for about 3 or 4 hours before quickly shifting off
to the east. The fast duration of the event alone will limit
potential accumulations, however during the height of the snowfall,
rates could be on the order of one-half to three-quarters inch per
hour. Placement of the heaviest snow band(s) is also still somewhat
in question, but feel pretty confident it (they) will ultimately lie
somewhere along/north of Highway 50 and south of Highway 4. The
winter weather advisory that was issued midday encompasses this
region of the forecast area for a general 1 to 3 inch accumulation.
Given the expected banded nature of the event and forward motion of
the frontogenesis somewhat parallel to band orientation, some
isolated amounts in excess of 3 inches will be possible. Global and
mesoscale models both show the meso-alpha scale frontogenesis
weakening toward daybreak as it shifts toward south-central Kansas,
so will be going with slightly lower amounts across the
Stafford-Pratt-Barber County zone. We went ahead and removed the
snow out of the forecast for the bulk of the day Monday except for
the very end of the day across far southwest Kansas. The rest of the
forecast was left unchanged as it appeared to be in pretty good
shape (regarding temperatures, wind, etc.)
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough moving
southeastward across the Western High Plains Monday night bringing
precip chances to the region very early in the period. As the
shortwave moves through, surface high pressure across the Upper
Midwest will provide a southeasterly upslope flow near the surface
while surface low pressure develops across New Mexico. This will
set up increased low level convergence across the panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma into portions of southwest Kansas. Although the
flow aloft will be less than favorable, enough low/mid level
forcing will be present, including the presence of some H7
frontogenetic banding, to support light snow development across
the panhandles with snow possibly reaching across the border into
southwest Kansas. Fairly light QPF signals and PW values down
around a quarter inch suggest minimal snow accumulations generally
less than one inch through Tuesday morning. Drier conditions are
then expected through the end of the week as weak upper level
ridging develops across the Intermountain West.
Temperatures will warm up Tuesday as surface high pressure departs
eastern Kansas to the east returning a southerly low level flow
to western Kansas. This will draw slightly warmer air northward
with H85 temperatures ranging from around 5C below across central
Kansas to near 0C in far southwest Kansas. Along with the help of
expected decreased cloud cover, look for highs well up into the
30s(F) Tuesday afternoon with near 40F possible in extreme
southwest Kansas. The warming trend continues into Wednesday with
widespread 40s(F) expected for highs with near 50F possible in far
southwest Kansas. Highs are likely to reach the 50s(F) to near 60F
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
An area of light snow will continue to propagate through western
and central Kansas through the early morning hours. During the
first few hours of this TAF period, look for MVFR to IFR ceilings
and IFR visibilities to prevail. The area of snow will be moving
out of western Kansas after 10z. Visibilities should improve into
the MVFR/VFR categories. MVFR ceilings and visibilities can be
expected, however there may be a period between 12z and 15z of
IFR visibilities in mist. Later in the period, we are expecting
ceilings to lower into the IFR category once again.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 8 16 4 32 / 80 20 20 0
GCK 8 18 6 34 / 80 10 20 0
EHA 12 24 12 40 / 30 20 30 10
LBL 12 21 8 36 / 40 20 20 10
HYS 5 13 0 30 / 60 20 10 0
P28 9 17 4 30 / 80 60 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Monday FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-076>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1039 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES COULD
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...SFC TROF MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED AS A RESULT. SEE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...ANY SUN
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LINGERING SFC CONVERGENCE
PERSISTS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS GT GOING.
PREVIOUSLY...
UPDATE...LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME NOW PULLING AWAY TO THE E. AS
IT DOES SO WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO NWLY...AND STUBBORN SFC TROF
IS EXITING COASTAL ME. MEANINGFUL SN IS WINDING DOWN ATTM...SO SPS
FOR ADDITIONAL SN DURING THE COMMUTE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 13Z
AS PLANNED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SNFL THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FOCUSED WITHIN
INVERTED SFC TROF...ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE NH/ME BORDER SEWD INTO
THE GULF OF ME. WLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT ISON3 AND
KPSM...QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NWLY AT BUOY 44030 AND WELLS
BEACH...AND NELY FROM KPWM NEWD UP THE COAST. THIS LLVL
CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED IN INTENSIFYING THE SNFL WITHIN THE WIND
SHIFT ZONE. STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST INVOF OF KPWM AND S FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. VERY RECENT
REPORT OF 3.5 INCHES AT KENNEBUNK CONFIRMS THAT A SMALL ZONE OF
3-4 INCH TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. A BLEND OF THE
NERFC...NAM12...AND HRRR QPF ACHIEVED AMOUNTS VERY CLOSE TO THIS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLD 5 INCH REPORT NEAR CAPE
ELIZABETH. SMALL AREAL EXTENT OF THESE HIGHER SNFL TOTALS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY.
WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ME THIS MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EWD. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN -SN FROM W TO
E. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY SLOWING
DOWN THE MORNING COMMUTE. AS WLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA....DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BREAK UP THE CLOUDS SE OF THE MTNS.
THIS SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20S SHOULD HELP THE ROAD
TREATMENT MELT ANY REMAINING SN ON THE ROADS THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CWFA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
THE ST. LAWRENCE. LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT OVER
THE MTNS WILL PRODUCE SOME SHSN THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST
PART OF TUE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
WITH HIGH PRES STILL BUILDING IN MON NIGHT...GRADIENT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT. EVEN A LIGHT BREEZE WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL COOLING. FEEL THE MAV IS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE BRINGING MIN
TEMPS TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA. INSTEAD CHOSE TO
BLEND THE WARMER MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE...AS BEST POTENTIAL COLD LOOKS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN.
THIS INCONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO YIELD A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
FOR THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EURO AND NAM CAMPS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT BY HUGGING THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE CANADIAN
THEN BECOMES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND THE GFS
WHICH IS WELL OFFSHORE.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO AWAIT THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR IMPROVED RAOB SAMPLING IN AND AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR
AN IMPROVED CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN ANY CASE...THERE COULD BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST IF WARMER AIR MAKES IT INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MAINE/NEW
HAMPSHIRE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS FROM W TO E THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM KPWM
AND NEWD. WLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE MTNS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHSN
GOING INVOF KHIE INTO TUE...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO LIFR AND IFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS BRIEFLY
THIS MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ME. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN TUE.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
729 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES COULD
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME NOW PULLING AWAY TO THE E. AS
IT DOES SO WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO NWLY...AND STUBBORN SFC TROF
IS EXITING COASTAL ME. MEANINGFUL SN IS WINDING DOWN ATTM...SO SPS
FOR ADDITIONAL SN DURING THE COMMUTE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 13Z
AS PLANNED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SNFL THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FOCUSED WITHIN
INVERTED SFC TROF...ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE NH/ME BORDER SEWD INTO
THE GULF OF ME. WLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT ISON3 AND
KPSM...QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NWLY AT BUOY 44030 AND WELLS
BEACH...AND NELY FROM KPWM NEWD UP THE COAST. THIS LLVL
CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED IN INTENSIFYING THE SNFL WITHIN THE WIND
SHIFT ZONE. STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST INVOF OF KPWM AND S FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. VERY RECENT
REPORT OF 3.5 INCHES AT KENNEBUNK CONFIRMS THAT A SMALL ZONE OF
3-4 INCH TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. A BLEND OF THE
NERFC...NAM12...AND HRRR QPF ACHIEVED AMOUNTS VERY CLOSE TO THIS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLD 5 INCH REPORT NEAR CAPE
ELIZABETH. SMALL AREAL EXTENT OF THESE HIGHER SNFL TOTALS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY.
WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ME THIS MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EWD. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN -SN FROM W TO
E. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY SLOWING
DOWN THE MORNING COMMUTE. AS WLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA....DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BREAK UP THE CLOUDS SE OF THE MTNS.
THIS SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20S SHOULD HELP THE ROAD
TREATMENT MELT ANY REMAINING SN ON THE ROADS THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CWFA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
THE ST. LAWRENCE. LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT OVER
THE MTNS WILL PRODUCE SOME SHSN THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST
PART OF TUE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
WITH HIGH PRES STILL BUILDING IN MON NIGHT...GRADIENT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT. EVEN A LIGHT BREEZE WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL COOLING. FEEL THE MAV IS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE BRINGING MIN
TEMPS TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA. INSTEAD CHOSE TO
BLEND THE WARMER MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE...AS BEST POTENTIAL COLD LOOKS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN.
THIS INCONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO YIELD A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
FOR THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EURO AND NAM CAMPS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT BY HUGGING THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE CANADIAN
THEN BECOMES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND THE GFS
WHICH IS WELL OFFSHORE.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO AWAIT THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR IMPROVED RAOB SAMPLING IN AND AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR
AN IMPROVED CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN ANY CASE...THERE COULD BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST IF WARMER AIR MAKES IT INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MAINE/NEW
HAMPSHIRE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS FROM W TO E THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM KPWM
AND NEWD. WLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE MTNS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHSN
GOING INVOF KHIE INTO TUE...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO LIFR AND IFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS BRIEFLY
THIS MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ME. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN TUE.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
445 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES COULD
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...VERY PERSISTENT SFC TROF HAS REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE. OCNL
BOUTS OF HEAVIER SNFL HAVE ROTATED INTO THE COAST BASED ON RADAR
OBS. HAVE UPDATED POP TO REFLECT THIS TREND CONTINUING THRU
12Z...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST FROM KPWM SWD TO JUST N OF
KENNEBUNK. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR THIS MORNING/S COMMUTE...AS THIS
SNFL WILL ALIGN ALONG TURNPIKE AND INTO KPWM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SNFL THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FOCUSED WITHIN
INVERTED SFC TROF...ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE NH/ME BORDER SEWD INTO
THE GULF OF ME. WLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT ISON3 AND
KPSM...QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NWLY AT BUOY 44030 AND WELLS
BEACH...AND NELY FROM KPWM NEWD UP THE COAST. THIS LLVL
CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED IN INTENSIFYING THE SNFL WITHIN THE WIND
SHIFT ZONE. STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST INVOF OF KPWM AND S FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. VERY RECENT
REPORT OF 3.5 INCHES AT KENNEBUNK CONFIRMS THAT A SMALL ZONE OF
3-4 INCH TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. A BLEND OF THE
NERFC...NAM12...AND HRRR QPF ACHIEVED AMOUNTS VERY CLOSE TO THIS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLD 5 INCH REPORT NEAR CAPE
ELIZABETH. SMALL AREAL EXTENT OF THESE HIGHER SNFL TOTALS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY.
WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ME THIS MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EWD. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN -SN FROM W TO
E. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY SLOWING
DOWN THE MORNING COMMUTE. AS WLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA....DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BREAK UP THE CLOUDS SE OF THE MTNS.
THIS SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20S SHOULD HELP THE ROAD
TREATMENT MELT ANY REMAINING SN ON THE ROADS THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CWFA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
THE ST. LAWRENCE. LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT OVER
THE MTNS WILL PRODUCE SOME SHSN THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST
PART OF TUE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
WITH HIGH PRES STILL BUILDING IN MON NIGHT...GRADIENT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT. EVEN A LIGHT BREEZE WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL COOLING. FEEL THE MAV IS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE BRINGING MIN
TEMPS TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA. INSTEAD CHOSE TO
BLEND THE WARMER MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE...AS BEST POTENTIAL COLD LOOKS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN.
THIS INCONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO YIELD A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
FOR THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EURO AND NAM CAMPS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT BY HUGGING THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE CANADIAN
THEN BECOMES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND THE GFS
WHICH IS WELL OFFSHORE.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO AWAIT THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR IMPROVED RAOB SAMPLING IN AND AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR
AN IMPROVED CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN ANY CASE...THERE COULD BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST IF WARMER AIR MAKES IT INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MAINE/NEW
HAMPSHIRE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS FROM W TO E THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM KPWM
AND NEWD. WLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE MTNS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHSN
GOING INVOF KHIE INTO TUE...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO LIFR AND IFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS BRIEFLY
THIS MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ME. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN TUE.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
707 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING STALLED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THAT FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES FROM NEAR THE GULF COAST
TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS PLACES SFC CD FRONT ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WALLOPS TO AKQ TO AHOSKIE NC. SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN MISSOURI VALLEY.
MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE DAY WILL BE WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES S OF THE FA, AS A COLDER AIRMASS
SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE RGN FM THE NNW. WEAKENING/SHEARING S/W ALOFT
WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING INTO ERY
AFTN WITH VERY WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE W/SW.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT MUCH OF LIFT REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT
LATEST RAP DOES DEPICT ENOUGH LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SNEAK OUT A FEW
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE BEST LIFT SHUNTS SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SN...THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A MIX
OF RA/SN ALG SRN EDGE OF PCPN IN COASTAL NE NC. OTW...MCLDY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH...CLDY S. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HI TEMPS TO
BE ACHIEVED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...RANGING FROM THE L/M30S N
(HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 FAR NORTH)...TO M/U30S
S. COULD PICK UP A QUICK DUSTING ON GRASSY SFCS OVER SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE AREA.
SFC HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK TO THE SOUTH. QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE,
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH, MID 20S TO NEAR 30 CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES WELL TO THE NR THE GULF COAST BY 12Z TUE
MRNG...AS SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THERE MAY SOME INCRS IN CLDNS ACRS FAR
SRN VA/NE NC TUE AFTN...OTRW PCLDY AND COLD WX XPCD TUE AS WEAK
CAD STRUCTURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M30S N...TO THE
M/U30S S.
MDLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDWEEK. A ECMWF/UKMET/GGEM
BLEND HAS BEEN USED FOR THIS SYSTEM. OVERALL, LOW PRES IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUE NGT...EVENTUALLY
TRACKING E-NE TO A POSITION NR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY WED.
MOISTURE WILL BE GATHERING S OF THE FA DURING THAT PD...SPREADING
GRADUALLY NNE. THE PREFERRED BLENDED FORECAST TAKES SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MIDDAY WED ALONG THE
NC/VA COASTAL PLAIN TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY THURSDAY MORNING. BY
CONTRAST, THE 00Z/10 GFS CONTINUES WITH A BIT OF A DIFFERENT
SOLUTION...TAKING THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW NEAR CHS WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH
THIS LOW SLIDING OFFSHORE THROUGH THU MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS, CONTINUE TO BELIEVE GFS IS TRENDING
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED CONSENSUS SOLN. IN A
YEAR OF SEVERAL `ATYPICAL` MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEMS...CIPS ANALOGS AND
MODEL CONSENSUS ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL MIXED
BAG TYPE SOLUTION FOR THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ALL MDLS
SHOW COLD SFC HI PRES AREA RETREATING THROUGH NEW ENG (AND TO THE
NE). TRIED HARD TO LEAVE SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE FORECAST WITH SO
MANY QUESTIONS LEFT TO BE ANSWERED (A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY AND
MDL AGREEMENT IS NEEDED AND THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THAT). STILL,
ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM TO WARRANT POPS BEING
SHUNTED INTO LIKELY RANGE WED NGT/THU. HIGHEST POPS RIGHT NOW WILL
BE CONFINED TO SRN PORTIONS TUE NGT (SN)...AND SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS ON WED (SN EVENTUALLY BECOMING MIXED PHASE PTYPE).
CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE THE LONGEST OVER THE PIEDMONT...IF IT OCCURS
AT ALL.IT IS THIS AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL HEADLINES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PACKAGES.
FOR TEMPS, RODE THE LOWER ENVELOP OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE TEENS TO ARND 20F N AND NW...W/
M20S TO ARND 30F SE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L30S NW TO L40S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ENERGY
PHASING INTO A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF STATES LATE WEDS INTO
THURS. STRONG SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...EJECTING THE FEATURE NEWD THURS MORNING. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL BE ONGOING TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. SFC LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS WED NIGHT INTO THURS
MORNING. BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE IN STRONGEST
RETURN FLOW...BUT EXPECT MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO GO ALONG
WITH UVM PROVIDED BY INCREASING FLOW ALOFT (DIVERGENCE) AND HEIGHT
FALLS (SHORTWAVE). HAVE INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WED NIGHT-THURS MORNING AS CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.
WHILE THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE IS WARMER THAN ITS GFS
COUNTERPART...A BLEND OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REVEAL A MIXED BAG OF
PTYPES OVER THE REGION. TO BACK UP WARMER GUIDANCE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NE COAST (RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW) AS
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT-THURS
MORNING (TEMPS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL). EXPECT THE COAST TO
REMAIN RAIN WHILE INLAND WILL TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN-SNOW WITH
SOME SLEET TO ALL RAIN BY THURS AFTERNOON. STILL TO EARLY TO
DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WEDS-WEDS
NIGHT WILL LIKELY MELT THURS. SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND LIFT
NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE THURS...ALLOWING PRECIP TO COME TO AN
END OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
A WINTRY MIX OVER THE NE THRU THURS NIGHT. CAA LIKELY ARRIVES TO
LATE TO POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS INDICATED IN THE
ECMWF. WPC QPF FORECAST FROM OVER AN INCH SE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH
NW FROM WEDS MORNING THRU FRI MORNING. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE 40S THURS AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP PREVENT TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THEREAFTER...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL NRN STREAM ENERGY IMPACTS
THE EAST. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE ERN SEABOARD
FRI-SAT...LIKELY PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...AS IT TYPICAL WITH NRN STREAM
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL ALSO REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NW TO LOW-MID 50S SE FRI-SUN.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
MID 30S SE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SAGGED SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SEND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD AND KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS OFF THE COAST. AT THAT
POINT...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TOIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION/POOR
AVIATION CONDITIONS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWLY SLID SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT..CLEARING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GETTING DOWN JUST NORTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER THIS MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE
WINDS A LITTLE THIS MORNING...DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. AT
THIS TIME...LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 8Z AND 9Z...ARE NOT
SHOWING A STRONG INCREASE AT THIS TIME. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION STILL MOVING IN...EXPECT
TO SEE SOME LOW END SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR WINDS.
THE SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO CALM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUT NOT CERTAIN THEY WILL STAY UP AS LONG A CURRENT COASTAL
ADVISORIES INDICATE. BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ADVISORIES WITH CURRENT
TIMING...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
CONDITIONS DO BEGIN TO IMPROVED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD LIGHTER WINDS...BUT WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE TO THE
NE...COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE SWELL BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY FROM WED INTO THURSDAY AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WOULD COMBINE WITH A RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND TO GREATLY INCREASE THE WINDS AND THE SEAS. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW AND WOULD
LIKELY LEAD TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER
TO THE WEST AND THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG...BUT THE PERSISTENT NE
FLOW WILL LIKELY STILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FT. SO FOR
NOW...HAVE INCREASE THE SEAS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT INCREASES THE WINDS AS AN OFF SHORE TRACK
WOULD LEAD TO WINDS NEAR WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT WOULD STILL
SUPPORT THE INCREASED SEAS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ630>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ESS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
435 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING STALLED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THAT FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES FROM NEAR THE GULF COAST
TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS PLACES SFC CD FRONT ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WALLOPS TO AKQ TO AHOSKIE NC. SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN MISSOURI VALLEY.
MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE DAY WILL BE WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES S OF THE FA, AS A COLDER AIRMASS
SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE RGN FM THE NNW. WEAKENING/SHEARING S/W ALOFT
WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING INTO ERY
AFTN WITH VERY WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE W/SW.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT MUCH OF LIFT REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT
LATEST RAP DOES DEPICT ENOUGH LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SNEAK OUT A FEW
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE BEST LIFT SHUNTS SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SN...THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A MIX
OF RA/SN ALG SRN EDGE OF PCPN IN COASTAL NE NC. OTW...MCLDY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH...CLDY S. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HI TEMPS TO
BE ACHIEVED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...RANGING FROM THE L/M30S N
(HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 FAR NORTH)...TO M/U30S
S. COULD PICK UP A QUICK DUSTING ON GRASSY SFCS OVER SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE AREA.
SFC HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK TO THE SOUTH. QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE,
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH, MID 20S TO NEAR 30 CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES WELL TO THE NR THE GULF COAST BY 12Z TUE
MRNG...AS SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THERE MAY SOME INCRS IN CLDNS ACRS FAR
SRN VA/NE NC TUE AFTN...OTRW PCLDY AND COLD WX XPCD TUE AS WEAK
CAD STRUCTURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M30S N...TO THE
M/U30S S.
MDLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDWEEK. A ECMWF/UKMET/GGEM
BLEND HAS BEEN USED FOR THIS SYSTEM. OVERALL, LOW PRES IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUE NGT...EVENTUALLY
TRACKING E-NE TO A POSITION NR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY WED.
MOISTURE WILL BE GATHERING S OF THE FA DURING THAT PD...SPREADING
GRADUALLY NNE. THE PREFERRED BLENDED FORECAST TAKES SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MIDDAY WED ALONG THE
NC/VA COASTAL PLAIN TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY THURSDAY MORNING. BY
CONTRAST, THE 00Z/10 GFS CONTINUES WITH A BIT OF A DIFFERENT
SOLUTION...TAKING THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW NEAR CHS WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH
THIS LOW SLIDING OFFSHORE THROUGH THU MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS, CONTINUE TO BELIEVE GFS IS TRENDING
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED CONSENSUS SOLN. IN A
YEAR OF SEVERAL `ATYPICAL` MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEMS...CIPS ANALOGS AND
MODEL CONSENSUS ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL MIXED
BAG TYPE SOLUTION FOR THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ALL MDLS
SHOW COLD SFC HI PRES AREA RETREATING THROUGH NEW ENG (AND TO THE
NE). TRIED HARD TO LEAVE SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE FORECAST WITH SO
MANY QUESTIONS LEFT TO BE ANSWERED (A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY AND
MDL AGREEMENT IS NEEDED AND THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THAT). STILL,
ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM TO WARRANT POPS BEING
SHUNTED INTO LIKELY RANGE WED NGT/THU. HIGHEST POPS RIGHT NOW WILL
BE CONFINED TO SRN PORTIONS TUE NGT (SN)...AND SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS ON WED (SN EVENTUALLY BECOMING MIXED PHASE PTYPE).
CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE THE LONGEST OVER THE PIEDMONT...IF IT OCCURS
AT ALL.IT IS THIS AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL HEADLINES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PACKAGES.
FOR TEMPS, RODE THE LOWER ENVELOP OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE TEENS TO ARND 20F N AND NW...W/
M20S TO ARND 30F SE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L30S NW TO L40S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ENERGY
PHASING INTO A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF STATES LATE WEDS INTO
THURS. STRONG SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...EJECTING THE FEATURE NEWD THURS MORNING. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL BE ONGOING TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. SFC LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS WED NIGHT INTO THURS
MORNING. BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE IN STRONGEST
RETURN FLOW...BUT EXPECT MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO GO ALONG
WITH UVM PROVIDED BY INCREASING FLOW ALOFT (DIVERGENCE) AND HEIGHT
FALLS (SHORTWAVE). HAVE INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WED NIGHT-THURS MORNING AS CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.
WHILE THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE IS WARMER THAN ITS GFS
COUNTERPART...A BLEND OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REVEAL A MIXED BAG OF
PTYPES OVER THE REGION. TO BACK UP WARMER GUIDANCE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NE COAST (RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW) AS
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT-THURS
MORNING (TEMPS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL). EXPECT THE COAST TO
REMAIN RAIN WHILE INLAND WILL TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN-SNOW WITH
SOME SLEET TO ALL RAIN BY THURS AFTERNOON. STILL TO EARLY TO
DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WEDS-WEDS
NIGHT WILL LIKELY MELT THURS. SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND LIFT
NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE THURS...ALLOWING PRECIP TO COME TO AN
END OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
A WINTRY MIX OVER THE NE THRU THURS NIGHT. CAA LIKELY ARRIVES TO
LATE TO POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS INDICATED IN THE
ECMWF. WPC QPF FORECAST FROM OVER AN INCH SE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH
NW FROM WEDS MORNING THRU FRI MORNING. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE 40S THURS AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP PREVENT TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THEREAFTER...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL NRN STREAM ENERGY IMPACTS
THE EAST. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE ERN SEABOARD
FRI-SAT...LIKELY PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...AS IT TYPICAL WITH NRN STREAM
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL ALSO REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NW TO LOW-MID 50S SE FRI-SUN.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
MID 30S SE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING DESPITE THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
SYSTEM LACKS MOISTURE LEAVING MOST OF THE CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K TO 6K
FT. BEHIND THE FRONT...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES
TO CLEAR THE SKY BRIEFLY.
HOWEVER...THE WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SEND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.
ANOTHER OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOK DRY SO EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO A LOW CHANCE...BUT IF IT DOES
FROM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WOULD BE ORF/ECG...WHERE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY IF THE PCPN FORMS.
AFTER 2Z...THE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE CLEARED THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO INVADE TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION/POOR
AVIATION CONDITIONS DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWLY SLID SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT..CLEARING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GETTING DOWN JUST NORTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER THIS MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE
WINDS A LITTLE THIS MORNING...DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. AT
THIS TIME...LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 8Z AND 9Z...ARE NOT
SHOWING A STRONG INCREASE AT THIS TIME. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION STILL MOVING IN...EXPECT
TO SEE SOME LOW END SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR WINDS.
THE SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO CALM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUT NOT CERTAIN THEY WILL STAY UP AS LONG A CURRENT COASTAL
ADVISORIES INDICATE. BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ADVISORIES WITH CURRENT
TIMING...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
CONDITIONS DO BEGIN TO IMPROVED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD LIGHTER WINDS...BUT WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE TO THE
NE...COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE SWELL BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY FROM WED INTO THURSDAY AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WOULD COMBINE WITH A RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND TO GREATLY INCREASE THE WINDS AND THE SEAS. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW AND WOULD
LIKELY LEAD TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER
TO THE WEST AND THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG...BUT THE PERSISTENT NE
FLOW WILL LIKELY STILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FT. SO FOR
NOW...HAVE INCREASE THE SEAS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT INCREASES THE WINDS AS AN OFF SHORE TRACK
WOULD LEAD TO WINDS NEAR WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT WOULD STILL
SUPPORT THE INCREASED SEAS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ630>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...SAM/WRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1251 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
JUST THE USUAL NUISANCE TYPE FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH LAKE INDUCED/DIURNALLY ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD EASTERN UPPER EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT HAS
BEEN THINNING WITH TIME WITH STRONGER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ONGOING. NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST...JUST SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL
IMPACT. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AROUND AND WEST OF OSCODA...AND ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. PLENTY OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS
WELL ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO (THE NORM FOR THIS WINTER). NOT MUCH
WIND SO WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GETTING OUT OF LINE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY...FORECAST UPDATES FOR CURRENT
TRENDS ONLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
THOUGH THE BAND IS BECOMING LESS VISIBLE...GRB RADAR INDICATES THE
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE LES BAND HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARD THE
COAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AT LEAST AT FKS IT AS AT THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY 1 1/4SM VSBY. THIS BAND WAS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NEARLY 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES...BACK WHEN IT EXITED
THE COAST NEAR MBL LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOSS OF THE BAND ON
GRB RADAR (AND IT/S LACK OF APPEARANCE ON APX) PERHAPS MEANS THIS
BAND IS WEAKENING...BUT THIS IS NOT A SAFE ASSUMPTION GIVEN THE
DISTANCE FROM THE TWO RADARS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WE ARE
GRADUALLY ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE REGIME FOR GOOD SNOW
RATIOS...AS 850MB ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LOWERING BELOW -20C.
STILL...WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SNEAKY/FLUFFY INCH OR 2 THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST FROM
THE DUNES SOUTHWARD.
HAVE AMPED UP SNOW WORDING ALONG THAT PART OF THE LAKE MI COAST.
OTHERWISE...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS...WITH SOME
PERIODIC BREAKS IN NE LOWER AND WESTERN MACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
GO FIGURE! NORTHERN LAKES ONCE AGAIN WELCOMING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WITH HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING
-20C H8 TEMPERATURE PUSHING INTO OUR AREA...AND EVEN COLDER READINGS
JUST UPSTREAM (MID -20S H8 OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR).
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT JUST AS COLD...ESPECIALLY UPWIND OF THE
BIG PONDS...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON THE BAD SIDE
OF ZERO ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ONTARIO. COLD AIR AND WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOING THEIR BEST TO DRUM UP SOME RESPECTABLE LAKE RESPONSE.
LAKE ICE SAYS OTHERWISE...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY...WITH EMPHASIS
PLACED ON LAKE SNOW...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
LAKE SNOWS SET TO CONTINUE TODAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES
ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN
BACKGROUND MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. FLOW ESSENTIALLY
REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS MENTIONED FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...LAKE
ICE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK BOTH SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER NOW RELEGATED TO AN
AREA WEST OF LEELANAU PENINSULA AND POINTS SOUTH (EVEN
HERE...EARLIER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF FLOATING ICE).
COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND H8 INVERSION LEVELS WILL FURTHER
NEGATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY. UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
NORTH...LAKE SUPERIOR ALL BUT FROZEN...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED OPEN
POCKETS OF WATER...SUGGESTING JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING SUN WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DAYTIME EXPANSION
TO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT NO BIG DEAL
FOR SURE. BIGGER STORY TODAY LIKELY TO BE THE TEMPERATURES...WITH
PERSISTENT CAA AND LIMITED LAKE MODIFICATION KEEPING MANY AREAS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. WINDS DON`T GET TOO OUT OF
HAND...BUT ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILL READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO (BUT SHORT OF ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA).
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS TAKING THEIR
COLLECTIVE TOLL ON LAKE PROCESSES HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY...AND ONE STRICTLY BASED OFF
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS GOING CALM/LIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH DECAYING LAKE PROCESSES AND LIGHT
WINDS...FEEL AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND INTERIOR UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS...ALLOWING READINGS TO TANK. WILL
CONTINUE TREND SET FORTH BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS...UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES. WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS
(-20?) EXPECTED WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOWS A TOUCH "WARMER"
ELSEWHERE...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
SOMEWHAT LENGTHY PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN IT/S WAKE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REBOUND...TUE AND TUE NIGHT STILL
LOOK QUITE COLD. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS ON A SLIGHT UPWARD
SWING...BUT ALONG WITH THAT COME SOME CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW.
PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TUESDAY...AT THE START OF THE DAY...WEAK (5-10KT) NW 1000-85MB FLOW
IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY EAST OF
LAKE HURON...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER MINUS TEENS. THOSE WINDS
WILL BACK SW OVER LAKE MI AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z...AND WILL BE
SSW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI BY 00Z. BY THEN...850MB TEMPS WILL
HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER MINUS TEENS. HOWEVER...VERY COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BELOW THAT...WITH 925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER
MINUS TEENS EVEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WON/T PLAY OUT HERE ON TERRA FIRMA. ONCE AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SHSN IN THE MORNING...BUT AS THE COLD AIR GETS SHALLOWER THAT
SHOULD SEGUE INTO JUST FLURRIES IN THE PM IN THE SW FLOW REGIME.
TUE NIGHT/WED...LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THRU THESE PERIODS...OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY WORKS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON. THE SW FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY...BUT A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS IOWA/WI/UPPER MI
TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF FADING OUT...THE PRE-FRONTAL
WILL TEND TO DO LIKEWISE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MI.
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR BELOW 800MB WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FOR TUE NIGHT...CHANCY POPS CAN
BE CONFINED TO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES VERY LATE. PRECIP SHOULD
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH AND MOMENTUM TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS IN
EASTERN UPPER WED MORNING (ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OR SO)...WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN MI...AND NO PRECIP
SE OF AN HTL-APN LINE.
PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR CLEARING AWAY FROM LAKE MI TUE NIGHT...BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE VERY LATE. SO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SUB-ZERO MINS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS
CLOSER TO LAKE MI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
20F...WITH A SOMEWHAT BRISK S TO SW WIND.
REST OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN 1000-850MB
WINDS AND TEMP ADVECTION WED NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT DIES
OVERHEAD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ON TIMING A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPPER MI.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL OF COURSE HINDERED BY A LACK OF OPEN WATER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN MAX TEMPS NEED TO A
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO. BACK INTO THE TEENS THRU THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014
VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE/
DIURNAL CLOUDS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS
AT TVC/MBL. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT OF APN THIS EVENING...
BUT PERSIST AT WESTERN TERMINALS MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
SNOW SHOWERS AT MBL.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1146 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
JUST THE USUAL NUISANCE TYPE FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH LAKE INDUCED/DIURNALLY ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD EASTERN UPPER EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT HAS
BEEN THINNING WITH TIME WITH STRONGER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ONGOING. NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST...JUST SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL
IMPACT. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AROUND AND WEST OF OSCODA...AND ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. PLENTY OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS
WELL ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO (THE NORM FOR THIS WINTER). NOT MUCH
WIND SO WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GETTING OUT OF LINE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY...FORECAST UPDATES FOR CURRENT
TRENDS ONLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
THOUGH THE BAND IS BECOMING LESS VISIBLE...GRB RADAR INDICATES THE
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE LES BAND HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARD THE
COAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AT LEAST AT FKS IT AS AT THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY 1 1/4SM VSBY. THIS BAND WAS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NEARLY 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES...BACK WHEN IT EXITED
THE COAST NEAR MBL LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOSS OF THE BAND ON
GRB RADAR (AND IT/S LACK OF APPEARANCE ON APX) PERHAPS MEANS THIS
BAND IS WEAKENING...BUT THIS IS NOT A SAFE ASSUMPTION GIVEN THE
DISTANCE FROM THE TWO RADARS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WE ARE
GRADUALLY ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE REGIME FOR GOOD SNOW
RATIOS...AS 850MB ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LOWERING BELOW -20C.
STILL...WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SNEAKY/FLUFFY INCH OR 2 THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST FROM
THE DUNES SOUTHWARD.
HAVE AMPED UP SNOW WORDING ALONG THAT PART OF THE LAKE MI COAST.
OTHERWISE...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS...WITH SOME
PERIODIC BREAKS IN NE LOWER AND WESTERN MACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
GO FIGURE! NORTHERN LAKES ONCE AGAIN WELCOMING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WITH HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING
-20C H8 TEMPERATURE PUSHING INTO OUR AREA...AND EVEN COLDER READINGS
JUST UPSTREAM (MID -20S H8 OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR).
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT JUST AS COLD...ESPECIALLY UPWIND OF THE
BIG PONDS...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON THE BAD SIDE
OF ZERO ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ONTARIO. COLD AIR AND WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOING THEIR BEST TO DRUM UP SOME RESPECTABLE LAKE RESPONSE.
LAKE ICE SAYS OTHERWISE...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY...WITH EMPHASIS
PLACED ON LAKE SNOW...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
LAKE SNOWS SET TO CONTINUE TODAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES
ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN
BACKGROUND MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. FLOW ESSENTIALLY
REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS MENTIONED FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...LAKE
ICE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK BOTH SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER NOW RELEGATED TO AN
AREA WEST OF LEELANAU PENINSULA AND POINTS SOUTH (EVEN
HERE...EARLIER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF FLOATING ICE).
COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND H8 INVERSION LEVELS WILL FURTHER
NEGATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY. UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
NORTH...LAKE SUPERIOR ALL BUT FROZEN...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED OPEN
POCKETS OF WATER...SUGGESTING JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING SUN WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DAYTIME EXPANSION
TO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT NO BIG DEAL
FOR SURE. BIGGER STORY TODAY LIKELY TO BE THE TEMPERATURES...WITH
PERSISTENT CAA AND LIMITED LAKE MODIFICATION KEEPING MANY AREAS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. WINDS DON`T GET TOO OUT OF
HAND...BUT ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILL READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO (BUT SHORT OF ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA).
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS TAKING THEIR
COLLECTIVE TOLL ON LAKE PROCESSES HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY...AND ONE STRICTLY BASED OFF
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS GOING CALM/LIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH DECAYING LAKE PROCESSES AND LIGHT
WINDS...FEEL AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND INTERIOR UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS...ALLOWING READINGS TO TANK. WILL
CONTINUE TREND SET FORTH BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS...UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES. WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS
(-20?) EXPECTED WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOWS A TOUCH "WARMER"
ELSEWHERE...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
SOMEWHAT LENGTHY PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN IT/S WAKE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REBOUND...TUE AND TUE NIGHT STILL
LOOK QUITE COLD. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS ON A SLIGHT UPWARD
SWING...BUT ALONG WITH THAT COME SOME CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW.
PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TUESDAY...AT THE START OF THE DAY...WEAK (5-10KT) NW 1000-85MB FLOW
IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY EAST OF
LAKE HURON...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER MINUS TEENS. THOSE WINDS
WILL BACK SW OVER LAKE MI AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z...AND WILL BE
SSW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI BY 00Z. BY THEN...850MB TEMPS WILL
HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER MINUS TEENS. HOWEVER...VERY COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BELOW THAT...WITH 925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER
MINUS TEENS EVEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WON/T PLAY OUT HERE ON TERRA FIRMA. ONCE AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SHSN IN THE MORNING...BUT AS THE COLD AIR GETS SHALLOWER THAT
SHOULD SEGUE INTO JUST FLURRIES IN THE PM IN THE SW FLOW REGIME.
TUE NIGHT/WED...LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THRU THESE PERIODS...OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY WORKS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON. THE SW FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY...BUT A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS IOWA/WI/UPPER MI
TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF FADING OUT...THE PRE-FRONTAL
WILL TEND TO DO LIKEWISE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MI.
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR BELOW 800MB WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FOR TUE NIGHT...CHANCY POPS CAN
BE CONFINED TO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES VERY LATE. PRECIP SHOULD
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH AND MOMENTUM TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS IN
EASTERN UPPER WED MORNING (ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OR SO)...WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN MI...AND NO PRECIP
SE OF AN HTL-APN LINE.
PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR CLEARING AWAY FROM LAKE MI TUE NIGHT...BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE VERY LATE. SO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SUB-ZERO MINS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS
CLOSER TO LAKE MI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
20F...WITH A SOMEWHAT BRISK S TO SW WIND.
REST OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN 1000-850MB
WINDS AND TEMP ADVECTION WED NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT DIES
OVERHEAD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ON TIMING A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPPER MI.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL OF COURSE HINDERED BY A LACK OF OPEN WATER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN MAX TEMPS NEED TO A
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO. BACK INTO THE TEENS THRU THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
MOSTLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR AT MBL (AND PERIODS OF IFR THIS MORNING).
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION ON A LIGHTISH NW WIND. NOT
MUCH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE SHSN...BUT TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL WILL
REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME FLURRIES/SHSN. FOR MBL...AN EARLIER
DOMINANT BAND IS STARTING TO BACK UP TOWARD THE COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY INDUCE IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATOCU OUT THERE...MOSTLY VFR (WOULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES THOUGH).
LIGHT NW WIND BY MIDDAY TODAY...BECOMING NEARLY CALM AGAIN
TONIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JB
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
932 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AROUND AND WEST OF OSCODA...AND ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. PLENTY OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS
WELL ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO (THE NORM FOR THIS WINTER). NOT MUCH
WIND SO WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GETTING OUT OF LINE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY...FORECAST UPDATES FOR CURRENT
TRENDS ONLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
THOUGH THE BAND IS BECOMING LESS VISIBLE...GRB RADAR INDICATES THE
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE LES BAND HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARD THE
COAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AT LEAST AT FKS IT AS AT THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY 1 1/4SM VSBY. THIS BAND WAS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NEARLY 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES...BACK WHEN IT EXITED
THE COAST NEAR MBL LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOSS OF THE BAND ON
GRB RADAR (AND IT/S LACK OF APPEARANCE ON APX) PERHAPS MEANS THIS
BAND IS WEAKENING...BUT THIS IS NOT A SAFE ASSUMPTION GIVEN THE
DISTANCE FROM THE TWO RADARS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WE ARE
GRADUALLY ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE REGIME FOR GOOD SNOW
RATIOS...AS 850MB ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LOWERING BELOW -20C.
STILL...WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SNEAKY/FLUFFY INCH OR 2 THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST FROM
THE DUNES SOUTHWARD.
HAVE AMPED UP SNOW WORDING ALONG THAT PART OF THE LAKE MI COAST.
OTHERWISE...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS...WITH SOME
PERIODIC BREAKS IN NE LOWER AND WESTERN MACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
GO FIGURE! NORTHERN LAKES ONCE AGAIN WELCOMING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WITH HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING
-20C H8 TEMPERATURE PUSHING INTO OUR AREA...AND EVEN COLDER READINGS
JUST UPSTREAM (MID -20S H8 OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR).
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT JUST AS COLD...ESPECIALLY UPWIND OF THE
BIG PONDS...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON THE BAD SIDE
OF ZERO ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ONTARIO. COLD AIR AND WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOING THEIR BEST TO DRUM UP SOME RESPECTABLE LAKE RESPONSE.
LAKE ICE SAYS OTHERWISE...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY...WITH EMPHASIS
PLACED ON LAKE SNOW...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
LAKE SNOWS SET TO CONTINUE TODAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES
ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN
BACKGROUND MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. FLOW ESSENTIALLY
REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS MENTIONED FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...LAKE
ICE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK BOTH SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER NOW RELEGATED TO AN
AREA WEST OF LEELANAU PENINSULA AND POINTS SOUTH (EVEN
HERE...EARLIER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF FLOATING ICE).
COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND H8 INVERSION LEVELS WILL FURTHER
NEGATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY. UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
NORTH...LAKE SUPERIOR ALL BUT FROZEN...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED OPEN
POCKETS OF WATER...SUGGESTING JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING SUN WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DAYTIME EXPANSION
TO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT NO BIG DEAL
FOR SURE. BIGGER STORY TODAY LIKELY TO BE THE TEMPERATURES...WITH
PERSISTENT CAA AND LIMITED LAKE MODIFICATION KEEPING MANY AREAS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. WINDS DON`T GET TOO OUT OF
HAND...BUT ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILL READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO (BUT SHORT OF ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA).
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS TAKING THEIR
COLLECTIVE TOLL ON LAKE PROCESSES HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY...AND ONE STRICTLY BASED OFF
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS GOING CALM/LIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH DECAYING LAKE PROCESSES AND LIGHT
WINDS...FEEL AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND INTERIOR UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS...ALLOWING READINGS TO TANK. WILL
CONTINUE TREND SET FORTH BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS...UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES. WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS
(-20?) EXPECTED WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOWS A TOUCH "WARMER"
ELSEWHERE...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
SOMEWHAT LENGTHY PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN IT/S WAKE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REBOUND...TUE AND TUE NIGHT STILL
LOOK QUITE COLD. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS ON A SLIGHT UPWARD
SWING...BUT ALONG WITH THAT COME SOME CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW.
PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TUESDAY...AT THE START OF THE DAY...WEAK (5-10KT) NW 1000-85MB FLOW
IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY EAST OF
LAKE HURON...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER MINUS TEENS. THOSE WINDS
WILL BACK SW OVER LAKE MI AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z...AND WILL BE
SSW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI BY 00Z. BY THEN...850MB TEMPS WILL
HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER MINUS TEENS. HOWEVER...VERY COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BELOW THAT...WITH 925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER
MINUS TEENS EVEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WON/T PLAY OUT HERE ON TERRA FIRMA. ONCE AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SHSN IN THE MORNING...BUT AS THE COLD AIR GETS SHALLOWER THAT
SHOULD SEGUE INTO JUST FLURRIES IN THE PM IN THE SW FLOW REGIME.
TUE NIGHT/WED...LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THRU THESE PERIODS...OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY WORKS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON. THE SW FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY...BUT A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS IOWA/WI/UPPER MI
TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF FADING OUT...THE PRE-FRONTAL
WILL TEND TO DO LIKEWISE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MI.
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR BELOW 800MB WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FOR TUE NIGHT...CHANCY POPS CAN
BE CONFINED TO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES VERY LATE. PRECIP SHOULD
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH AND MOMENTUM TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS IN
EASTERN UPPER WED MORNING (ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OR SO)...WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN MI...AND NO PRECIP
SE OF AN HTL-APN LINE.
PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR CLEARING AWAY FROM LAKE MI TUE NIGHT...BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE VERY LATE. SO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SUB-ZERO MINS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS
CLOSER TO LAKE MI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
20F...WITH A SOMEWHAT BRISK S TO SW WIND.
REST OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN 1000-850MB
WINDS AND TEMP ADVECTION WED NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT DIES
OVERHEAD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ON TIMING A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPPER MI.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL OF COURSE HINDERED BY A LACK OF OPEN WATER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN MAX TEMPS NEED TO A
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO. BACK INTO THE TEENS THRU THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
MOSTLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR AT MBL (AND PERIODS OF IFR THIS MORNING).
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION ON A LIGHTISH NW WIND. NOT
MUCH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE SHSN...BUT TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL WILL
REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME FLURRIES/SHSN. FOR MBL...AN EARLIER
DOMINANT BAND IS STARTING TO BACK UP TOWARD THE COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY INDUCE IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATOCU OUT THERE...MOSTLY VFR (WOULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES THOUGH).
LIGHT NW WIND BY MIDDAY TODAY...BECOMING NEARLY CALM AGAIN
TONIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
651 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
THOUGH THE BAND IS BECOMING LESS VISIBLE...GRB RADAR INDICATES THE
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE LES BAND HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARD THE
COAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AT LEAST AT FKS IT AS AT THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY 1 1/4SM VSBY. THIS BAND WAS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NEARLY 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES...BACK WHEN IT EXITED
THE COAST NEAR MBL LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOSS OF THE BAND ON
GRB RADAR (AND IT/S LACK OF APPEARANCE ON APX) PERHAPS MEANS THIS
BAND IS WEAKENING...BUT THIS IS NOT A SAFE ASSUMPTION GIVEN THE
DISTANCE FROM THE TWO RADARS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WE ARE
GRADUALLY ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE REGIME FOR GOOD SNOW
RATIOS...AS 850MB ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LOWERING BELOW -20C.
STILL...WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SNEAKY/FLUFFY INCH OR 2 THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST FROM
THE DUNES SOUTHWARD.
HAVE AMPED UP SNOW WORDING ALONG THAT PART OF THE LAKE MI COAST.
OTHERWISE...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS...WITH SOME
PERIODIC BREAKS IN NE LOWER AND WESTERN MACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
GO FIGURE! NORTHERN LAKES ONCE AGAIN WELCOMING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WITH HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING
-20C H8 TEMPERATURE PUSHING INTO OUR AREA...AND EVEN COLDER READINGS
JUST UPSTREAM (MID -20S H8 OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR).
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT JUST AS COLD...ESPECIALLY UPWIND OF THE
BIG PONDS...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON THE BAD SIDE
OF ZERO ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ONTARIO. COLD AIR AND WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOING THEIR BEST TO DRUM UP SOME RESPECTABLE LAKE RESPONSE.
LAKE ICE SAYS OTHERWISE...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY...WITH EMPHASIS
PLACED ON LAKE SNOW...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
LAKE SNOWS SET TO CONTINUE TODAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES
ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN
BACKGROUND MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. FLOW ESSENTIALLY
REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS MENTIONED FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...LAKE
ICE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK BOTH SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER NOW RELEGATED TO AN
AREA WEST OF LEELANAU PENINSULA AND POINTS SOUTH (EVEN
HERE...EARLIER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF FLOATING ICE).
COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND H8 INVERSION LEVELS WILL FURTHER
NEGATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY. UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
NORTH...LAKE SUPERIOR ALL BUT FROZEN...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED OPEN
POCKETS OF WATER...SUGGESTING JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING SUN WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DAYTIME EXPANSION
TO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT NO BIG DEAL
FOR SURE. BIGGER STORY TODAY LIKELY TO BE THE TEMPERATURES...WITH
PERSISTENT CAA AND LIMITED LAKE MODIFICATION KEEPING MANY AREAS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. WINDS DON`T GET TOO OUT OF
HAND...BUT ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILL READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO (BUT SHORT OF ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA).
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS TAKING THEIR
COLLECTIVE TOLL ON LAKE PROCESSES HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY...AND ONE STRICTLY BASED OFF
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS GOING CALM/LIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH DECAYING LAKE PROCESSES AND LIGHT
WINDS...FEEL AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND INTERIOR UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS...ALLOWING READINGS TO TANK. WILL
CONTINUE TREND SET FORTH BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS...UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES. WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS
(-20?) EXPECTED WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOWS A TOUCH "WARMER"
ELSEWHERE...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
SOMEWHAT LENGTHY PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN IT/S WAKE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REBOUND...TUE AND TUE NIGHT STILL
LOOK QUITE COLD. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS ON A SLIGHT UPWARD
SWING...BUT ALONG WITH THAT COME SOME CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW.
PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TUESDAY...AT THE START OF THE DAY...WEAK (5-10KT) NW 1000-85MB FLOW
IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY EAST OF
LAKE HURON...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER MINUS TEENS. THOSE WINDS
WILL BACK SW OVER LAKE MI AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z...AND WILL BE
SSW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI BY 00Z. BY THEN...850MB TEMPS WILL
HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER MINUS TEENS. HOWEVER...VERY COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BELOW THAT...WITH 925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER
MINUS TEENS EVEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WON/T PLAY OUT HERE ON TERRA FIRMA. ONCE AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SHSN IN THE MORNING...BUT AS THE COLD AIR GETS SHALLOWER THAT
SHOULD SEGUE INTO JUST FLURRIES IN THE PM IN THE SW FLOW REGIME.
TUE NIGHT/WED...LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THRU THESE PERIODS...OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY WORKS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON. THE SW FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY...BUT A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS IOWA/WI/UPPER MI
TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF FADING OUT...THE PRE-FRONTAL
WILL TEND TO DO LIKEWISE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MI.
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR BELOW 800MB WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FOR TUE NIGHT...CHANCY POPS CAN
BE CONFINED TO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES VERY LATE. PRECIP SHOULD
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH AND MOMENTUM TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS IN
EASTERN UPPER WED MORNING (ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OR SO)...WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN MI...AND NO PRECIP
SE OF AN HTL-APN LINE.
PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR CLEARING AWAY FROM LAKE MI TUE NIGHT...BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE VERY LATE. SO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SUB-ZERO MINS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS
CLOSER TO LAKE MI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
20F...WITH A SOMEWHAT BRISK S TO SW WIND.
REST OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN 1000-850MB
WINDS AND TEMP ADVECTION WED NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT DIES
OVERHEAD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ON TIMING A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPPER MI.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL OF COURSE HINDERED BY A LACK OF OPEN WATER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN MAX TEMPS NEED TO A
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO. BACK INTO THE TEENS THRU THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
MOSTLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR AT MBL (AND PERIODS OF IFR THIS MORNING).
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION ON A LIGHTISH NW WIND. NOT
MUCH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE SHSN...BUT TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL WILL
REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME FLURRIES/SHSN. FOR MBL...AN EARLIER
DOMINANT BAND IS STARTING TO BACK UP TOWARD THE COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY INDUCE IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATOCU OUT THERE...MOSTLY VFR (WOULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES THOUGH).
LIGHT NW WIND BY MIDDAY TODAY...BECOMING NEARLY CALM AGAIN
TONIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
253 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
GO FIGURE! NORTHERN LAKES ONCE AGAIN WELCOMING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WITH HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING
-20C H8 TEMPERATURE PUSHING INTO OUR AREA...AND EVEN COLDER READINGS
JUST UPSTREAM (MID -20S H8 OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR).
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT JUST AS COLD...ESPECIALLY UPWIND OF THE
BIG PONDS...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON THE BAD SIDE
OF ZERO ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ONTARIO. COLD AIR AND WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOING THEIR BEST TO DRUM UP SOME RESPECTABLE LAKE RESPONSE.
LAKE ICE SAYS OTHERWISE...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY...WITH EMPHASIS
PLACED ON LAKE SNOW...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
LAKE SNOWS SET TO CONTINUE TODAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES
ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN
BACKGROUND MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. FLOW ESSENTIALLY
REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS MENTIONED FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...LAKE
ICE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK BOTH SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER NOW RELEGATED TO AN
AREA WEST OF LEELANAU PENINSULA AND POINTS SOUTH (EVEN
HERE...EARLIER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF FLOATING ICE).
COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND H8 INVERSION LEVELS WILL FURTHER
NEGATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY. UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
NORTH...LAKE SUPERIOR ALL BUT FROZEN...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED OPEN
POCKETS OF WATER...SUGGESTING JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING SUN WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DAYTIME EXPANSION
TO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT NO BIG DEAL
FOR SURE. BIGGER STORY TODAY LIKELY TO BE THE TEMPERATURES...WITH
PERSISTENT CAA AND LIMITED LAKE MODIFICATION KEEPING MANY AREAS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. WINDS DON`T GET TOO OUT OF
HAND...BUT ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILL READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO (BUT SHORT OF ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA).
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS TAKING THEIR
COLLECTIVE TOLL ON LAKE PROCESSES HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY...AND ONE STRICTLY BASED OFF
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS GOING CALM/LIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH DECAYING LAKE PROCESSES AND LIGHT
WINDS...FEEL AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND INTERIOR UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS...ALLOWING READINGS TO TANK. WILL
CONTINUE TREND SET FORTH BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS...UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES. WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS
(-20?) EXPECTED WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOWS A TOUCH "WARMER"
ELSEWHERE...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
SOMEWHAT LENGTHY PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN IT/S WAKE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REBOUND...TUE AND TUE NIGHT STILL
LOOK QUITE COLD. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS ON A SLIGHT UPWARD
SWING...BUT ALONG WITH THAT COME SOME CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW.
PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TUESDAY...AT THE START OF THE DAY...WEAK (5-10KT) NW 1000-85MB FLOW
IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY EAST OF
LAKE HURON...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER MINUS TEENS. THOSE WINDS
WILL BACK SW OVER LAKE MI AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z...AND WILL BE
SSW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI BY 00Z. BY THEN...850MB TEMPS WILL
HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER MINUS TEENS. HOWEVER...VERY COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BELOW THAT...WITH 925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER
MINUS TEENS EVEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WON/T PLAY OUT HERE ON TERRA FIRMA. ONCE AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SHSN IN THE MORNING...BUT AS THE COLD AIR GETS SHALLOWER THAT
SHOULD SEGUE INTO JUST FLURRIES IN THE PM IN THE SW FLOW REGIME.
TUE NIGHT/WED...LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THRU THESE PERIODS...OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY WORKS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON. THE SW FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY...BUT A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS IOWA/WI/UPPER MI
TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF FADING OUT...THE PRE-FRONTAL
WILL TEND TO DO LIKEWISE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MI.
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR BELOW 800MB WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FOR TUE NIGHT...CHANCY POPS CAN
BE CONFINED TO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES VERY LATE. PRECIP SHOULD
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH AND MOMENTUM TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS IN
EASTERN UPPER WED MORNING (ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OR SO)...WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN MI...AND NO PRECIP
SE OF AN HTL-APN LINE.
PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR CLEARING AWAY FROM LAKE MI TUE NIGHT...BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE VERY LATE. SO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SUB-ZERO MINS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS
CLOSER TO LAKE MI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
20F...WITH A SOMEWHAT BRISK S TO SW WIND.
REST OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN 1000-850MB
WINDS AND TEMP ADVECTION WED NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT DIES
OVERHEAD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ON TIMING A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPPER MI.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL OF COURSE HINDERED BY A LACK OF OPEN WATER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN MAX TEMPS NEED TO A
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO. BACK INTO THE TEENS THRU THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN (TVC AND
MBL) TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR IS REINFORCED IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
843 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
.UPDATE...EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON
OBSERVATION AND RADAR DATA. THIS EXPANSION INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE
JACKSON METRO AREA. ALSO EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WARMING IN THE COLUMN...
FROM NEARING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF...LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER E MS/AL
AND NOT PIVOT SO MUCH WESTWARD INTO THE REST OF MS. OTHER THAN SOME
SLIGHT MOVEMENT IN TEMPERATURE OVER THE EAST...ELSEWHERE THEY HAVE
NOT BUDGED MUCH FROM THE AFTERNOON./26
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/
.POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE ARKLAMISS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
SHORT TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING..
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE REGION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONG
UPPER S/WV IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BEHIND THE S/WV THAT BROUGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLD TODAY AS LAPS
INDICATES H925 TEMPS AROUND 0 TO -1 DEG C FROM ALONG/NW OF A LINE
FROM WINNSBORO TO COLUMBUS. SURFACE FREEZING TEMPERATURE/WET BULB
LINE RUNS FROM SW/NE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE H925 LINE INDICATED
BEFORE. THIS IS ALL INDICATING TEMPERATURES IN THE W/NW WILL ONLY
BARELY RISE OR STAY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. GFS/EURO/NAM BUFFER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN THE FAR NW DELTA...AND CURRENT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REPORTS COMING
IN ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THAT POTENTIAL.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AS LOCAL WRF/HRRR
AND GLOBAL MODEL SUITE...ECMWF/GFS...INDICATE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING ICING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE DELTA LATER TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE SOME TRANSITION TO SNOW AND HI-RES HRRR INDICATES POTENTIAL
OF QPF APPROACHING 0.1-0.25 INCHES BY 02Z TONIGHT. THUS...INTRODUCED
CHANCE SNOW/SLEET IN THE FAR NW DELTA. ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE 00Z WILL
BE LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH. ALSO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED A TIER OF COUNTIES SE DUE TO TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING IN THESE AREAS AND LIKELY NOT TO RISE MUCH...IF AT
ALL...LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THERE IS SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT ICING IN THESE LOCATIONS ALONG/NW OF A LINE FROM
FERRIDAY TO JACKSON TO NEAR MACON. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE FREEZING
RAIN IN THESE AREAS UNTIL 6Z WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WENT CLOSE TO BLEND OF
MAV/MEN FOR LOWS/POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
ENOUGH FOR A VARIETY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. FROM AREAS SE OF A LINE
FROM CROSSETT TO GREENWOOD...MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SLEET/ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MELTING LAYER APPROACHING 2000-5000
FT DEEP WILL SUPPORT SOME PARTIAL AND FULL MELT SCENARIOS. AREAS IN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING COUNTIES WILL HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NW. ACCUMULATIONS
OF ICE TONIGHT WILL APPROACH 0.5-1.0 INCHES...WHICH WILL CAUSE
HEAVY ICING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER
OUTAGES. UPPER S/WV WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL
AID IN A SW TO NE ORIENTED FREEZING LINE. A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL BE PRESENT AS H85 FLOW CONVERGES IN THE FAR NW. THE COMBINATION
OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...AS DEPICTED IN PRECIP ON THE FAR NW SIDE
OF THE 1010MB SURFACE LOW...AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD APPROACH 1-3 INCHES AND SOME HI-RES HRRR RUNS WERE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...EXPECTING A COMBINATION OF SLEET/SNOW TO
CUT DOWN SNOW TOTAL IN THIS REGION. WENT NEAR MAV/MEN FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. WENT NEAR MAV
POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT KEPT HIGHER POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...WHICH IS MAINLY IN N/NE MS.
AS THE UPPER S/WV MOVES OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE LOW MOVES
E....TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL AND MIXED PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MORE RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SNOW/MIX IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL/E
MS AS THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION TO ONLY TRANSITION FOR A SHORT PERIOD FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WILL EXTEND UNTIL 6Z THURSDAY BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE REGION. 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND LOWS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S. AREAS IN THE W/NW THAT RECEIVE
SNOWFALL/ICE WILL LIKELY KEEP THAT AROUND UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WENT NEAR MAV/MEN BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY...LEADING TO A NICE AND MUCH
WARMER AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WENT NEAR MAVMOS FOR
HIGHS THURSDAY. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WARMER AS SOME CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WENT NEAR MAVMOS. PREVIOUS
RELEVANT PORTION OF LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL THANKFULLY LOOKING
WARMER AND RELATIVELY UNEXCITING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN OUR GENERAL
VICINITY AND ALONG OUR LATITUDE SHOULD TREND QUICKLY TO ZONAL FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE RENEWED EAST PACIFIC JET SLAMMING ENERGY INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE BULK OF THE WINTER THUS
FAR AND WILL BE KEEPING ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP FURTHER NORTH.
REGARDLESS...A COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO COME THROUGH FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS TILL THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT OFFICIAL RAIN MENTION FOR FRIDAY OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
FORECAST.
BY THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH
AROUND TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FROPA WITH MARGINAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
POTENTIAL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REALLY BE TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL IN WIDESPREAD FASHION. OPERATIONAL GFS-BASED MAX
GUIDANCE LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH BOTH TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR AT KGLH/KGWO
AFTER 12/00Z AS FZRA MOVES INTO THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AT KGTR...BUT ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS WILL MEAN JUST RAIN AS A
WEATHER TYPE THERE. IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE
RULE OVERNIGHT AT KJAN/KHKS/KMEI/KHBG. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
FZRA AT KJAN/KHKS...BUT CHANGE TO RA AFTER 12/06Z. /26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 29 38 26 53 / 100 36 14 0
MERIDIAN 33 44 26 57 / 100 78 24 0
VICKSBURG 27 36 25 54 / 100 26 4 0
HATTIESBURG 34 47 30 56 / 99 44 15 0
NATCHEZ 28 36 26 56 / 100 24 2 0
GREENVILLE 26 32 24 51 / 95 40 7 0
GREENWOOD 29 36 25 52 / 96 70 15 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ030-031-
033-038-039-044>046-049>051-054>056-061.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>029-032-034>037-040>043-047-048-053-059-060.
LA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
529 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED TEMPS AND WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT VALUES
AND TRENDS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WINTER WX ADVISORY
WHERE WINTRY PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DUE TO NEARING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. REST
OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK./26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/
..POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE ARKLAMISS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
SHORT TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING..
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE REGION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONG
UPPER S/WV IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BEHIND THE S/WV THAT BROUGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLD TODAY AS LAPS
INDICATES H925 TEMPS AROUND 0 TO -1 DEG C FROM ALONG/NW OF A LINE
FROM WINNSBORO TO COLUMBUS. SURFACE FREEZING TEMPERATURE/WET BULB
LINE RUNS FROM SW/NE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE H925 LINE INDICATED
BEFORE. THIS IS ALL INDICATING TEMPERATURES IN THE W/NW WILL ONLY
BARELY RISE OR STAY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. GFS/EURO/NAM BUFFER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN THE FAR NW DELTA...AND CURRENT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REPORTS COMING
IN ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THAT POTENTIAL.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AS LOCAL WRF/HRRR
AND GLOBAL MODEL SUITE...ECMWF/GFS...INDICATE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING ICING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE DELTA LATER TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE SOME TRANSITION TO SNOW AND HI-RES HRRR INDICATES POTENTIAL
OF QPF APPROACHING 0.1-0.25 INCHES BY 02Z TONIGHT. THUS...INTRODUCED
CHANCE SNOW/SLEET IN THE FAR NW DELTA. ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE 00Z WILL
BE LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH. ALSO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED A TIER OF COUNTIES SE DUE TO TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING IN THESE AREAS AND LIKELY NOT TO RISE MUCH...IF AT
ALL...LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THERE IS SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT ICING IN THESE LOCATIONS ALONG/NW OF A LINE FROM
FERRIDAY TO JACKSON TO NEAR MACON. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE FREEZING
RAIN IN THESE AREAS UNTIL 6Z WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WENT CLOSE TO BLEND OF
MAV/MEN FOR LOWS/POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
ENOUGH FOR A VARIETY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. FROM AREAS SE OF A LINE
FROM CROSSETT TO GREENWOOD...MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SLEET/ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MELTING LAYER APPROACHING 2000-5000
FT DEEP WILL SUPPORT SOME PARTIAL AND FULL MELT SCENARIOS. AREAS IN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING COUNTIES WILL HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NW. ACCUMULATIONS
OF ICE TONIGHT WILL APPROACH 0.5-1.0 INCHES...WHICH WILL CAUSE
HEAVY ICING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER
OUTAGES. UPPER S/WV WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL
AID IN A SW TO NE ORIENTED FREEZING LINE. A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL BE PRESENT AS H85 FLOW CONVERGES IN THE FAR NW. THE COMBINATION
OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...AS DEPICTED IN PRECIP ON THE FAR NW SIDE
OF THE 1010MB SURFACE LOW...AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD APPROACH 1-3 INCHES AND SOME HI-RES HRRR RUNS WERE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...EXPECTING A COMBINATION OF SLEET/SNOW TO
CUT DOWN SNOW TOTAL IN THIS REGION. WENT NEAR MAV/MEN FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. WENT NEAR MAV
POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT KEPT HIGHER POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...WHICH IS MAINLY IN N/NE MS.
AS THE UPPER S/WV MOVES OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE LOW MOVES
E....TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL AND MIXED PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MORE RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SNOW/MIX IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL/E
MS AS THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION TO ONLY TRANSITION FOR A SHORT PERIOD FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WILL EXTEND UNTIL 6Z THURSDAY BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE REGION. 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND LOWS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S. AREAS IN THE W/NW THAT RECEIVE
SNOWFALL/ICE WILL LIKELY KEEP THAT AROUND UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WENT NEAR MAV/MEN BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY...LEADING TO A NICE AND MUCH
WARMER AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WENT NEAR MAVMOS FOR
HIGHS THURSDAY. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WARMER AS SOME CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WENT NEAR MAVMOS. PREVIOUS
RELEVANT PORTION OF LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL THANKFULLY LOOKING
WARMER AND RELATIVELY UNEXCITING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN OUR GENERAL
VICINITY AND ALONG OUR LATITUDE SHOULD TREND QUICKLY TO ZONAL FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE RENEWED EAST PACIFIC JET SLAMMING ENERGY INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE BULK OF THE WINTER THUS
FAR AND WILL BE KEEPING ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP FURTHER NORTH.
REGARDLESS...A COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO COME THROUGH FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS TILL THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT OFFICIAL RAIN MENTION FOR FRIDAY OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
FORECAST.
BY THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH
AROUND TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FROPA WITH MARGINAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
POTENTIAL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REALLY BE TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL IN WIDESPREAD FASHION. OPERATIONAL GFS-BASED MAX
GUIDANCE LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH BOTH TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR AT KGLH/KGWO
AFTER 12/00Z AS FZRA MOVES INTO THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AT KGTR...BUT ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS WILL MEAN JUST RAIN AS A
WEATHER TYPE THERE. IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE
RULE OVERNIGHT AT KJAN/KHKS/KMEI/KHBG. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
FZRA AT KJAN/KHKS...BUT CHANGE TO RA AFTER 12/06Z. /26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 31 38 26 53 / 100 36 14 0
MERIDIAN 32 44 26 57 / 100 78 24 0
VICKSBURG 31 36 25 54 / 100 26 4 0
HATTIESBURG 37 47 30 56 / 99 44 15 0
NATCHEZ 30 36 26 56 / 100 24 2 0
GREENVILLE 30 32 24 51 / 95 40 7 0
GREENWOOD 31 36 25 52 / 96 70 15 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ029>033-
037>039-043-044-048-053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>028-034>036-040>042-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ045-
049-050-054-059-060.
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ024-025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LAZ026.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1048 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
Another band of snow is moving across southwest Missouri this
morning. The band looks to be associated with a subtle shortwave
headed east-southeast through Kansas into western Missouri at this
time. RAP is showing some weak to moderate low level frontogenesis
over southwest Missouri and the left exit region of an upper level
jet streak is likely adding some divergence aloft to aid in lift.
These features all wash out by mid morning. Still think we could
see a dusting across our far southern counties before the band falls
apart. Elsewhere and otherwise...a 1035mb high is building across
the Midwest bringing another surge of Arctic air. Should see
decreasing clouds this afternoon...but with cold advection
continuing went near or just below coldest guidance numbers across
the area. Wind chill advisory still looks to be in good shape so
will let it continue as is. Will see a clear or mostly clear sky
tonight as the under the influence of the Arctic high. There may be
some mid/high clouds to contend with, but for the most part there
should be excellent radiational cooling conditions...especially over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois closest to the center
of the high where the wind will be light and variable or calm.
Generally undercut guidance by a few degrees everywhere, but went 5
to 6 degrees colder up north. If there`s any wind whatsoever we
might need another wind chill advisory tonight up north, but will
let the day shift make that determination.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
After the cold start Tuesday morning we`ll be hard pressed to
break out of the teens and lower 20s Tuesday afternoon. Another
trof of low pressure will dip into the Midwest Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. While the shortwave looks pretty stout,
it looks like moisture will be lacking, so have stuck with only
slight chance pops. Increasing clouds and southerly flow should
keep temperatures up a little in relation to Tuesday morning`s
lows. Still, stuck pretty close to the coldest guidance for
Wednesday morning lows.
Temperatures still look to moderate for the latter half of the week
with highs Wednesday near or even a bit above freezing, especially
across the eastern Ozarks down the I-44 corridor. Stout
south-southwest flow on Thursday south of a clipper which will move
across the Upper Midwest should push temperatures into the upper 30s
to mid 40s. The cold front associated with the clipper will sweep
through the area Thursday night, providing a brief cool down
primarily for the northern half of the CWFA on Friday. Southerly
flow is reestablished Saturday ahead of another clipper keeping
temps up mainly in the 40s. Some timing differences in the medium
range models on when the clipper will pass and how much cold
advection there will be behind it for Sunday. For now have stuck
pretty close to guidance which keeps temps in the 40s.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1034 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
Strong surface ridge extending from ern ND s-se into nrn MO will
shift e-sewd through the forecast period. The n-nwly surface wind
will veer around to a n-nely direction this evng and become light,
then to an e-nely direction Tuesday mrng albeit still weak. Just
some VFR, mid-high level cloudiness advecting sewd through the
region through the period.
Specifics for KSTL: N-nwly surface wind will veer around to a nly
direction this evng and become fairly light, then continue to veer
around to an ely direction Tuesday aftn albeit still quite weak.
Just VFR, mid-high level clouds through the period.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
RECORD MINS AND LOW MAXES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
STL COU UIN
RECORD MINS 2/10 -9/1982 -12/1899 -10/1982
2/11 -9/1899 -21/1899 -12/1981
LO MAXES 2/10 7/1889 4/1899 8/1936
2/11 5/1981 1/1899 1/1981
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 13 -1 19 10 / 10 0 0 0
Quincy 8 -11 13 5 / 5 0 0 0
Columbia 13 -2 19 11 / 10 5 0 0
Jefferson City 16 0 21 9 / 10 5 0 0
Salem 15 1 19 9 / 10 0 0 0
Farmington 18 1 22 8 / 10 5 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
540 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
Another band of snow is moving across southwest Missouri this
morning. The band looks to be associated with a subtle shortwave
headed east-southeast through Kansas into western Missouri at this
time. RAP is showing some weak to moderate low level frontogenesis
over southwest Missouri and the left exit region of an upper level
jet streak is likely adding some divergence aloft to aid in lift.
These features all wash out by mid morning. Still think we could
see a dusting across our far southern counties before the band falls
apart. Elsewhere and otherwise...a 1035mb high is building across
the Midwest bringing another surge of Arctic air. Should see
decreasing clouds this afternoon...but with cold advection
continuing went near or just below coldest guidance numbers across
the area. Wind chill advisory still looks to be in good shape so
will let it continue as is. Will see a clear or mostly clear sky
tonight as the under the influence of the Arctic high. There may be
some mid/high clouds to contend with, but for the most part there
should be excellent radiational cooling conditions...especially over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois closest to the center
of the high where the wind will be light and variable or calm.
Generally undercut guidance by a few degrees everywhere, but went 5
to 6 degrees colder up north. If there`s any wind whatsoever we
might need another wind chill advisory tonight up north, but will
let the day shift make that determination.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
After the cold start Tuesday morning we`ll be hard pressed to
break out of the teens and lower 20s Tuesday afternoon. Another
trof of low pressure will dip into the Midwest Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. While the shortwave looks pretty stout,
it looks like moisture will be lacking, so have stuck with only
slight chance pops. Increasing clouds and southerly flow should
keep temperatures up a little in relation to Tuesday morning`s
lows. Still, stuck pretty close to the coldest guidance for
Wednesday morning lows.
Temperatures still look to moderate for the latter half of the week
with highs Wednesday near or even a bit above freezing, especially
across the eastern Ozarks down the I-44 corridor. Stout
south-southwest flow on Thursday south of a clipper which will move
across the Upper Midwest should push temperatures into the upper 30s
to mid 40s. The cold front associated with the clipper will sweep
through the area Thursday night, providing a brief cool down
primarily for the northern half of the CWFA on Friday. Southerly
flow is reestablished Saturday ahead of another clipper keeping
temps up mainly in the 40s. Some timing differences in the medium
range models on when the clipper will pass and how much cold
advection there will be behind it for Sunday. For now have stuck
pretty close to guidance which keeps temps in the 40s.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 454 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
A ripple in the flow has produced a band of snow overnight from SE
KS into SW MO. Model guidance indicates this band should weaken as
it progresses east...but there could be some light snow and/or
flurries across the ern Ozarks this morning. Otherwise expect
decreasing cloudiness and nrly winds aob 10 kts thru the period.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR fcst with rising CIGs this morning and N/NE winds aob 10 kts
thru the prd.
2%
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
RECORD MINS AND LOW MAXES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
STL COU UIN
RECORD MINS 2/10 -9/1982 -12/1899 -10/1982
2/11 -9/1899 -21/1899 -12/1981
LO MAXES 2/10 7/1889 4/1899 8/1936
2/11 5/1981 1/1899 1/1981
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 13 -1 19 10 / 5 0 0 0
Quincy 8 -11 13 5 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 13 -2 19 11 / 5 5 0 0
Jefferson City 16 0 21 9 / 5 5 0 0
Salem 15 1 19 9 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 18 1 22 8 / 20 5 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
342 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
Another band of snow is moving across southwest Missouri this
morning. The band looks to be associated with a subtle shortwave
headed east-southeast through Kansas into western Missouri at this
time. RAP is showing some weak to moderate low level frontogenesis
over southwest Missouri and the left exit region of an upper level
jet streak is likely adding some divergence aloft to aid in lift.
These features all wash out by mid morning. Still think we could
see a dusting across our far southern counties before the band falls
apart. Elsewhere and otherwise...a 1035mb high is building across
the Midwest bringing another surge of Arctic air. Should see
decreasing clouds this afternoon...but with cold advection
continuing went near or just below coldest guidance numbers across
the area. Wind chill advisory still looks to be in good shape so
will let it continue as is. Will see a clear or mostly clear sky
tonight as the under the influence of the Arctic high. There may be
some mid/high clouds to contend with, but for the most part there
should be excellent radiational cooling conditions...especially over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois closest to the center
of the high where the wind will be light and variable or calm.
Generally undercut guidance by a few degrees everywhere, but went 5
to 6 degrees colder up north. If there`s any wind whatsoever we
might need another wind chill advisory tonight up north, but will
let the day shift make that determination.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
After the cold start Tuesday morning we`ll be hard pressed to
break out of the teens and lower 20s Tuesday afternoon. Another
trof of low pressure will dip into the Midwest Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. While the shortwave looks pretty stout,
it looks like moisture will be lacking, so have stuck with only
slight chance pops. Increasing clouds and southerly flow should
keep temperatures up a little in relation to Tuesday morning`s
lows. Still, stuck pretty close to the coldest guidance for
Wednesday morning lows.
Temperatures still look to moderate for the latter half of the week
with highs Wednesday near or even a bit above freezing, especially
across the eastern Ozarks down the I-44 corridor. Stout
south-southwest flow on Thursday south of a clipper which will move
across the Upper Midwest should push temperatures into the upper 30s
to mid 40s. The cold front associated with the clipper will sweep
through the area Thursday night, providing a brief cool down
primarily for the northern half of the CWFA on Friday. Southerly
flow is reestablished Saturday ahead of another clipper keeping
temps up mainly in the 40s. Some timing differences in the medium
range models on when the clipper will pass and how much cold
advection there will be behind it for Sunday. For now have stuck
pretty close to guidance which keeps temps in the 40s.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
VFR conditions expected to continue thru the forecast period.
Winds will remain nly around 10 kts or less.
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
RECORD MINS AND LOW MAXES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
STL COU UIN
RECORD MINS 2/10 -9/1982 -12/1899 -10/1982
2/11 -9/1899 -21/1899 -12/1981
LO MAXES 2/10 7/1889 4/1899 8/1936
2/11 5/1981 1/1899 1/1981
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 13 -1 19 10 / 5 0 0 0
Quincy 8 -11 13 5 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 13 -2 19 11 / 5 5 0 0
Jefferson City 16 0 21 9 / 5 5 0 0
Salem 15 1 19 9 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 18 1 22 8 / 20 5 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1139 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Have raised PoPs over the far southwestern portion of the CWA for
late tonight to just after sunrise. Area of snow over KS is handled
best by the latest RAP and GFS while NAM is a tad too far south.
Radar trends/trajectories also support the slightly more northern
track of the RAP and GFS, taking the snow through west central MO,
possibly just grazing the far southwest part of the KC Metro.
Slightly higher than average snow ratios could yield around half an
inch of snow over the far southwestern counties.
UPDATE Issued at 940 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
The colder/drier arctic air is undercutting the fairly extensive mid
cloud deck and oozing south through the CWA. Dewpoints have already
fallen below zero over the far northeastern part of the CWA. The next
shortwave progged to streak out of CO tonight will have to battle
the southward surge of drier air. 00z models are tracking this
feature and its elongated jet streak a bit further south. As such
believe any measurable snow poses a threat to mainly the far
southwestern counties. So have chipped away at the northern extent
of PoPs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Tonight - Tomorrow:
An area of strong but mostly transient frontogenesis in roughly the
750 to 650 mb layer has led TO a quick inch+ of snow across eastern
Kansas and western through central Missouri. This all is associated
with a fast moving upper shortwave trough currently moving through
the Central Plains. This wave is expected to track east of the area
tonight but it will continue to lead to A strong baroclinic region
across the area. Additionally, modest Q-vector divergence associated
with the right rear quadrant of the upper level jet will ensure that
light snow continues along the baroclinic band through the night.
This should mainly occur over southern Missouri but light snow is
possible as far north as the southern Kansas City Metropolitan area.
Snow should diminish/slide south as colder and drier air moves into
the region from another strong area of high pressure sliding south
through the Plains. The combination of northerly winds, before the
high pressure settles into the area, and bitterly cold temperatures
below zero across portions of northern/northeastern Missouri, will
lead to wind chill values in the -15 to -20 degree range. So the wind
chill advisory is in good shape with no plans to change it with this
forecast.
Tuesday - Wednesday:
The aforementioned high pressure area will settle over the area
Tuesday with bitterly cold temperatures expected Tuesday. Low
temperatures Tuesday morning should be around -10 to -12 over
northern Missouri where the center of the high pressure should
settle overnight. This will lead to clear/mostly clear skies and
calm winds and with many areas still with deep snow cover, strong
radiational cooling will occur leading to those well below zero
readings. Afternoon temperatures will struggle into the teens and
lower 20s. The surface high will shift to the east allowing for
southerly flow to return. There is a fair amount of uncertainty
about just how warm we might get due to snow cover over our area as
well as to our southwest. But highs in the lower to middle 30s still
look reasonable and it still looks like by early afternoon the
Kansas City area will climb above freezing for the first time in
well over a week.
The only noticeable change to the going forecast was to add some
light snow during the day over the eastern portions of the forecast
area. The trailing vorticity maximum from a clipper system tracking
through the Upper Midwest will move through the area and may be
enough to lead to light snow. Confidence isn`t especially high at
this point so have only mentioned a slight chance for snow.
Thursday - Saturday:
Once temperatures warm on Wednesday, it looks like they will stay
warmer through the end of the week. However, there is a fair amount
of uncertainty as the ECMWF does not plunge any colder air back into
the region like the GFS does by the Thursday night/Friday. The GEM
supports the ECMWF notion of keeping temperatures in the upper 30s
to middle 40s and the forecast more closely follows the the GEM/ECMWF
notion.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Band of snow over central KS is associated with the next shortwave
tracking ese out of CO. This snow will pass through east central KS
and parts of west central MO between midnight and shortly after
sunrise. The snow will miss all 3 terminals. Much drier air is
filtering southward and preventing any clouds lower than 7-8k ft agl
to form. So, will maintain the VFR forecast. Will gradually see
these mid clouds scatter out from north to south Monday morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM to 11 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ003-
005>008-015>017-024-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
909 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 5000
FEET ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...AND TO 6000 FEET ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. SHOWERS END IN MOST AREAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY
ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND GROUND TRUTH MEASUREMENTS SHOWING NAM AND
HRRR MODELS DOING BETTER WITH SNOW LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...UPDATED WEATHER...POP...QPF...SNOW LEVEL...AND
SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS TO CAPTURE THE EXPECTED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST TO INCLUDE ALL OF
LANDER EUREKA AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 326 PM /
SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING VALLEY RAINS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
FALL IN THE VALLEY AREAS INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHOWERS BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HOWEVER MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RADAR IS FAIRLY CLEAR AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE FILLING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER
BATCH OF MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
IS SPILLING OVER INTO PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. RAIN WILL
AGAIN BE PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME DEPICTS ENHANCED CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...PRESSING EAST INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA. EMBEDDED
IN THE CLOUDS IS A VORT MAX...WHICH IS ALSO BEING SHOWN IN THE
RUC13...GFS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE FEATURE...700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE 1 TO 2.5 DEGREES C BY LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE THE SNOW LEVEL
FORECAST DIFFICULT...WITH ERRORS OF 500 FEET MAKING A BIG DIFFERENCE.
DECIDED TO ISSUE IMPACT BASED ADVISORIES FOR 5500-6000 FEET ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW...MAYBE 1
TO 2 OR 3 INCHES...BUT IT WILL AFFECT TRAVEL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER PASSES AND SUMMITS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON...HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THOUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE
FREEZING FOG SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BUT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT CLOUDINESS TO PREVENT FORMATION. WILL
PASS ONTO LATER SHIFTS REGARDING THIS LINE OF THINKING.
ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC WILL IMPACT
THE WEST COAST....BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE GRIDS
JUST YET. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED ALLOWING ENERGY AND
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS NORTH
OF THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR WILL BE THE LOCATIONS AFFECTED. IT
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM EVENT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH
OF RIDGE AND TIMING OF TROUGH COMING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA LATE
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VERY MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH PW`S 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AND INTEGRATED WV TRANSPORT 5 TO 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS AIRMASS WILL BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NEVADA...THUS INCREASED POPS ON THURSDAY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES
WITH ZONAL FLOW. FRIDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE STREAM AND
PRECIPITATION NORTH TO NEAR THE STATE BORDER.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BROAD RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ALL SHOW
TROUGH DEEPENING A BIT ACROSS EASTERN PACIFIC AND MOVING OVER NEVADA
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACT TIMING AND HOW
DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE...WHICH IS INFLUENCING THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE AT KEKO AND KELY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS AND VIS
WILL BE MVFR WHEN RAIN OCCURS OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF RAIN BANDS. KTPH SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A 10 TO 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST MONDAY
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST MONDAY
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST MONDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST MONDAY
ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.
&&
$$
96
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 PM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MAINLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AFTER TONIGHT...WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL
ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS...AT LEAST WEST OF THE STRATUS DECK IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST CONTINUE
TO ERODE...THOUGH THEY MAY NOT COMPLETELY GO AWAY...VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME HOLES WILL DEVELOP AND LOCALLY WARM
IT UP A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION HAS FORMED IN BOTH SE CO AND
NORTHERN AZ LATE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NM OVERNIGHT. EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO
POP UP IN NW NM. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN VORT MAX WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM...WHERE LESS MOISTURE RESIDES...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MAIN
SNOW BAND WILL STAY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER THIS
EVENING... THOUGH THE LOCAL WRF AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
EITHER SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT NE NM...OR THAT ANOTHER
WEAKER BAND WILL DEVELOP IN NE NM. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NE FOR THIS REASON. THIS BAND LIKELY WOULD NOT GET MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN A SPRINGER TO CLAYTON LINE...THOUGH COULD SEE LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. HI RES MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL...VERY LIGHT... BAND OF PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NEAR
CORONA EASTWARD TOWARD PORTALES. INTERESTINGLY THOUGH...THIS BAND IS
ABSENT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF...THOUGH SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS HAD BEEN
ADVERTISING IT. AT BEST...WOULD THINK ONLY A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW
COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NE EITHER. WILL CONTINUE THE SPS AND
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST. FREEZING FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT...THOUGH AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY AROUND KLVS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP SOME ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...THOUGH
GENERALLY WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY...ALL AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WARM TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT EARLY FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN THE EAST A FEW
DEGREES...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AND TUE MORN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NE HALF OF NM AND THE CURRENT COLDER THAN NORMAL
AIR OVER THE EAST LINGERING INTO TUE...IT LOOKS LIKE A LONG PERIOD
OF NO PRECIPITATION AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST A LITTLE BEYOND.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXISTS MAINLY FOR THU IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
NEAR TERM THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PULLED UP NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
NEAR RATON TO JUST WEST OF SANTA ROSA TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF DUNKEN
IN FAR SW CHAVES COUNTY. THE POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ERODED TO A PRETTY GOOD DEGREE BUT WILL LIKELY THICKEN AND MAY
SPREAD A BIT FARTHER WEST TONIGHT COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORN AS THE
COLD FRONT MAKES IT TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND PERHAPS BELOW LOWER
CANYONS INTO SOME PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH THAT WILL
BE A FAIRLY MODEST EAST WIND MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN 10 TO 20 MPH
AND EVEN THOSE WINDS WILL DIE OUT BETWEEN DAWN AND MID MORN TUE.
CHANCE OF THE FRONT MAKING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AND LARGE
IS UNDER 50 PERCENT. OF COURSE EAST OF THE FRONT RH RECOVERIES WILL
BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND ALMOST THAT GOOD FARTHER WEST
EXCEPT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM BERNALILLO COUNTY ON SOUTH.
RECOVERIES ONLY IN THE POOR TO ONLY LOCALLY GOOD RANGE MOST AREAS
FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS THEREAFTER. VENT RATES TO BE GENERALLY FAIR TO
GOOD TUE AND WED WITH A FEW VERY GOOD POCKETS IN CENTRAL AND NE
NM...THEN A MAJOR IMPROVEMENT THU WHERE MUCH OF AREA WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. UNFORTUNATELY IT DROPS BACK AGAIN FRI AND SAT BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO SOME DEGREE SUN...BUT NOT AS IMPRESSIVELY AS THU.
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING MIDWEEK SOME MIN RH VALUES OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
15 PERCENT POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON...WHEN A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AND ADJACENT TO DE BACA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WED THROUGH SUN...THERE
WILL BE SOME RISK OF PERIODIC SHORT TERM MARGINALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS IN EASTERN NM...FAVORING WED AND SUN AFTN.
43
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LARGE MASS OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS AT 18Z NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM RATON TO SANTA ROSA TO DUNKEN IN FAR SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY
WILL ERODE SOME TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTN WITH SOME HOLES
POSSIBLY BEING PUNCHED THROUGH THE CLOUD MASS EVEN FARTHER EAST.
CLOUD BASES WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR MOST AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER DOES
NOT COMPLETELY ERODE. ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL NM THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTN...GENERALLY IN VFR CATEGORY.
EXPECT SOME MT OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES ACROSS N THIRD TO PERHAPS
HALF OF THE STATE...MORE SO TONIGHT THAN THIS AFTN HOWEVER. BACK
DOOR FRONT TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY JUST WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE THIS AFTN SHOULD THEN DRIFT A LITTLE WAYS BACK WEST
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT WILL PUSH
INTO ALL OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT OR ONLY MAKE A FEW
TENTATIVE INROADS BELOW THE LOWER GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. AT
WORST EXPECTING ONLY A 3 TO 6 HOUR MODERATE E WIND POTENTIAL
AFFECTING ABQ. CIGS LIKELY TO LOWER AND EXPAND SOME AGAIN THIS
EVE ACROSS THE E AS CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE INCREASE. OVER CENTRAL AND WRN NM CHANCES FOR
SPOTTY AND MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS UPR TROF MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN WITH
ISOLD TO SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 10/23Z AND 11/08Z.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 27 52 23 55 / 10 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 16 48 14 49 / 30 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 22 48 18 51 / 20 10 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 19 55 14 58 / 10 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 19 50 16 54 / 20 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 18 54 17 58 / 10 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 23 51 24 56 / 30 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 31 65 23 67 / 10 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 12 41 12 44 / 50 10 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 47 26 50 / 30 10 0 0
PECOS........................... 24 47 25 50 / 20 10 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 13 41 13 43 / 60 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 18 38 13 41 / 70 10 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 15 42 10 45 / 60 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 20 48 18 48 / 40 5 0 0
MORA............................ 20 46 23 49 / 40 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 27 55 22 56 / 20 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 50 24 52 / 30 10 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 26 53 25 54 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 30 55 30 57 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 56 31 59 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 26 58 25 61 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 28 57 29 60 / 20 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 29 58 24 62 / 20 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 58 30 61 / 20 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 35 61 31 65 / 20 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 26 49 27 53 / 20 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 27 51 29 54 / 20 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 22 51 23 55 / 20 10 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 21 49 25 52 / 30 20 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 23 51 30 56 / 20 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 29 55 29 60 / 20 10 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 27 51 30 55 / 30 20 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 16 44 22 47 / 70 10 0 0
RATON........................... 18 50 19 53 / 70 10 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 18 49 20 54 / 50 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 18 48 23 55 / 30 10 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 14 43 25 52 / 60 10 0 0
ROY............................. 16 47 23 53 / 40 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 17 48 28 57 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 17 50 29 61 / 20 20 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 13 44 24 57 / 20 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 15 40 25 55 / 30 20 5 0
PORTALES........................ 14 41 25 57 / 30 20 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 18 44 28 58 / 30 20 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 23 45 26 63 / 20 30 5 0
PICACHO......................... 21 49 31 58 / 20 30 5 0
ELK............................. 24 49 32 57 / 20 30 5 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1156 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE STRATUS DECK IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY REACHED PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST HIGHS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN TRICKY ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH WARM AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ERODE THIS AFTN. THE HARD PART WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW FAR. STILL THINK AT LEAST THE EASTERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WILL STAY OVERCAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AND
PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
ALSO BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TODAY...AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
ACROSS THE NW. LOCAL WRF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW AND THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH EITHER.
NAM IS HANGING ON WITH AROUND 0.01 OF QPF...WHICH IS NOT
PROMISING EITHER. ALSO REMOVED THE FZDZ AND FZFG ACROSS THE EAST
THIS AFTN AS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST CIGS HAVE LIFTED A BIT. WX/QPF/SKY
HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR THESE TRENDS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1115 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LARGE MASS OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS AT 18Z NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM RATON TO SANTA ROSA TO DUNKEN IN FAR SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY
WILL ERODE SOME TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTN WITH SOME HOLES
POSSIBLY BEING PUNCHED THROUGH THE CLOUD MASS EVEN FARTHER EAST.
CLOUD BASES WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR MOST AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER DOES
NOT COMPLETELY ERODE. ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL NM THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTN...GENERALLY IN VFR CATEGORY.
EXPECT SOME MT OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES ACROSS N THIRD TO PERHAPS
HALF OF THE STATE...MORE SO TONIGHT THAN THIS AFTN HOWEVER. BACK
DOOR FRONT TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY JUST WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE THIS AFTN SHOULD THEN DRIFT A LITTLE WAYS BACK WEST
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT WILL PUSH
INTO ALL OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT OR ONLY MAKE A FEW
TENTATIVE INROADS BELOW THE LOWER GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. AT
WORST EXPECTING ONLY A 3 TO 6 HOUR MODERATE E WIND POTENTIAL
AFFECTING ABQ. CIGS LIKELY TO LOWER AND EXPAND SOME AGAIN THIS
EVE ACROSS THE E AS CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE INCREASE. OVER CENTRAL AND WRN NM CHANCES FOR
SPOTTY AND MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS UPR TROF MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN WITH
ISOLD TO SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 10/23Z AND 11/08Z.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO SOME AREAS OF THE STATE WHILE A
COLDER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WHILE THE WEST HOVERS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE EXITS NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY...A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH BOUTS OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EACH DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND BATCHES OF FREEZING FOG ARE ADVANCING WESTWARD TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN LOWEST AT CLAYTON AND RATON BETWEEN A HALF AND A
QUARTER OF A MILE. THIS WILL POSE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WITH SOME
DEPOSITION OF ICE ON SOME ROAD SURFACES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT FOG
IS NOT DENSE AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. WILL REISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO ERODE
AWAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING. HAVE
UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE EASTERN ZONES...AND OUR WEST TX NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO BE DOING
THE SAME. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BENEATH THIS
STUBBORN STRATUS DECK...POSSIBLY OF A DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
VARIETY WHERE POCKETS OF ONLY SUPERCOOLED CLOUD WATER EXISTS. IN
THE WESTERN ZONES TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN INCREASING IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES.
TONIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL OVERTAKE NM...DRAGGING SOME FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTHEAST. QPF IS STILL UNIMPRESSIVE DUE
TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED JET OR
ISENTROPIC LIFTING AIDS. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME BANDED MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION...BUT CONTINUITY HAS BEEN
LACKING BETWEEN MEMBERS AND TEMPORAL RUNS. GFS HAS ADVERTISED ONE
IN NORTHEAST NM...GENERALLY FROM THE RATON RIDGE EASTWARD INTO
UNION COUNTY WHILE THE NAM HAS BOUGHT ON AN ISOLATED BAND OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LONE BAND
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS BY EARLY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST...BUT THE CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION IS ABSENT. OVERALL...SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.
TROUGH REMNANTS WILL EXIT THE STATE TUESDAY AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...BUT THOSE READINGS WILL STILL BE LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THE
MORE NOTABLE WARM UP WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA RISING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN A PATTERN DEFINED
BY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. SOME BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE PATTERN REMAINS
DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANY STORMS BEING DEFLECTED
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SEEPED FARTHER
WEST AND SOUTH ATTM WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH THE PECOS
VALLEY AT ROSWELL NORTH THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS AREA AND TO RATON.
MODELS DON/T INDICATE IT WILL MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS
WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IT COULD REACH CLINES
CORNERS BEFORE THE WESTERN EXTENT ERODES A LITTLE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. EXPECT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO PERSIST OVER
THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT THOUGH...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10
TO OVER 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST
WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN USUAL TODAY.
A DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE SHOWN ADVECTING INTO NV AND AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM THE WEST AND KABQ 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED AT .42 PW WHICH
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY IS AROUND 200 PCT OF NORMAL. WHETHER THIS
TRANSLATES INTO MEASURABLE PCPN...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE GREAT BASIN...APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO THE TX BORDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHERE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME INSTAB
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL PREDICTED SO PERHAPS MORE
SHOWERY PCPN THERE. SOME OF THE MODELS STILL HINTING THERE WILL ALSO
BE A BAND OF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AS WELL TONIGHT. MODELS DON/T INDICATE AN EAST WIND
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE RGV SO COLDER AIR SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DON/T APPEAR TO BE FACTORS.
HIGHS REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE EAST TUESDAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE WEST AS
THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OUT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. PERSISTENT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE MAY RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES BECOME ONLY FAIR TO EVEN POOR OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER RGV
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TREND PERSISTS INTO THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE POOR RECOVERIES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME MIN RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 15 PERCENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
VENT RATES TODAY WILL BE POOR EAST AND MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
WEST. TUESDAYS RATES WILL REMAIN POOR OVER MOST OF THE EAST WITH
MOSTLY GOOD WEST AND CENTRAL. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY GOOD
RATES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST WITH POOR TO FAIR VALUES
AT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
&&
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1242 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...
STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM NORTH. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY... BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SATELLITE IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL
IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES AN UPPER LEVEL OPAQUE DECK OF CLOUDINESS
MOVING LIKE A BAT OUT OF HELL...HAVING JUST ABOUT EXITED THE ILM
CWA TO THE EAST...AND OUT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CURRENT MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE ILM CWA AT THE
MOMENT...AND IT TOO IS TRAVELING AT A DECENT SPEED. WILL HAVE TO
UPDATE SKY CONDITIONS FOR LESS CLOUDS AT THE START. WILL STILL
ADVERTISE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK AFTER THE CFP. NOT EXPECTING
ANY PCPN ACCOMPANYING ITS PASSAGE. OVERALL...LOOKING AT BASICALLY
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITION OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR SFC WIND FIELD
INDICATES THE COLD FRONT TO DROP...NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE ILM
CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HOURS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP LATE TONIGHT...BEST SEEN WITH MODEL 925 MB
TEMP FIELDS. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMBING A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DURING THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...MORE THAN LIKELY WE
WILL SEE MIN TEMPS OCCURRING RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. STILL
ENOUGH OF A CLOUD DECK AND WEAK MIXING AT THE SFC TO KEEP ANY
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO A MINIMUM...AND THUS MINIMIZING ANY
AREAS/WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT
APPEARS TO BE BREWING FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL UNRESOLVED QUESTIONS:
- HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE WILL
END UP...
- WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR WITHIN THE WARM
NOSE ALOFT (3000-7000 FT) ENDS UP...
- WHEN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS TUESDAY...
IF YOU ARE READING THIS YOU HAVE PROBABLY ALREADY REVIEWED THE 12Z
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS HAS THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE ON
THE MASS FIELDS (FRONTAL POSITIONS, HIGHS, LOWS) AND IS THE DEFAULT
MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS STORM. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO VEER LOW LEVEL
WINDS TOO MUCH TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH TOO MUCH WARMING
OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 00Z AND NOW THE 12Z RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE INTERESTING IN THAT THEY ATTEMPT TO BRING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE GULF UP INTO THE COLD AIR WEDGE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE TECHNICALLY BEYOND THE TIME FRAME
COVERED BY THE MON-TUE NIGHT PERIOD...THE ECMWF SOLUTION TYPICALLY
DOES NOT OCCUR AND MAY BE A CLUE THE ECMWF MAY NOT HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE THIS TIME.
AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY DAY MONDAY (HIGHS: 50S TO NEAR 60)
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERCAST SKIES DEVELOPING. COLD DRY AIR PUSHED SOUTH BY 1037 MB
ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER IOWA WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
295-310K SURFACES (A DEEP LAYER FROM 9000-18000 FT AGL) WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z GFS INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE
GENERALLY SLOWER THAN THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIP TUESDAY...BUT 80+% OF THEM STILL SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID 30S UP UNTIL SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION OCCURS TO INDUCE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AT WHICH POINT TEMPS
WILL DIVE DOWN TO FREEZING ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE
TO MARION...WHITEVILLE AND BURGAW.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW...HOWEVER ABOVE-FREEZING AIR ARRIVING AT 850 MB ACROSS
SOUTH CAROLINA AND ALONG THE COAST WILL TRANSITION PRECIP OVER TO
RAIN OR SLEET DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COOL DRY AIR BENEATH
THE WARM NOSE ALOFT. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS BENEATH THE
WARM NOSE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ENSURE A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR TO
OFFSET LATENT HEATING INCURRED FROM SLEET FORMATION...AND THE
ALL-SNOW LINE MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO SNEAK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
BENNETTSVILLE...LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN WITH SNOW + SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS OF WILMINGTON AND MYRTLE BEACH...
YOU ARE VERY CLOSE TO SIGNIFICANT GRADIENTS IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SMALL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES
COULD MAKE TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE OUTCOME FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WED WHILE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO RIDE ACROSS A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE GA COAST WED MORNING WHICH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHARPEN THE WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH UP THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST RIGHT EAST OF OUR
LOCAL AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA ENCOMPASSING THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE RUNNING UP FROM GA INTO NC
THROUGH WED WHILE CONVECTIVE PCP SHOULD DEVELOP IN CONVERGENCE
LOCATED ALONG TROUGH AXIS OFF SHORE. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATER QPF
OFF THE COAST. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPS AND WEATHER TYPE AND TOTAL QPF AND WILL
NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. OVERALL WILL HAVE
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER EVENT HEADING INTO WED WITH MIXED PCP
CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING COOLER WED
THROUGH WED NIGHT.
BY THURS THE LOW WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LINGERING
PCP THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN THAN MIXED AS
AIR MASS WARMS SLIGHTLY BUT PLACES WELL INLAND MAY CONTINUE TO MIX
UNTIL LATE DAY. PLENTY OF DRY AND COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BACK THURS NIGHT AHEAD
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY FRI
SWEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
ON FRI. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL SCOUR OUT ALL CLOUDS
AND PCP LEADING TO A DRIER WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART. SHOULD SEE
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE GFS DOES HINT AT
A SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PRODUCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
TO MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CIGS...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGH CLOUDS INFILTRATING INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER...MID AND HIGH...INCREASES TO
BKN/OVC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR LOW CIGS TO
CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY EVENING. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT
NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULD NOT RULE OUT -RA ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY FROZEN PRECIP AT KLBT...THOUGH
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY MORNING. PREDOMINATELY IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
THURSDAY EVENING...THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SW TO W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH...WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MONDAY HOURS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS BY OR SEVERAL HRS AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE CAA COMBINED
WITH A TIGHTENING POST CFP SFC PG...WILL YIELD W TO NW WINDS 10-15
KT...BECOMING N-NE AROUND 15 KT LIKELY SEVERAL HRS AFTER DAYBREAK
MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4
FOOTERS POSSIBLE OFF CAPE FEAR. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PRIMARILY BE COMPRISED OF A 2 TO 3 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9
TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. BUOYS WITHIN AND NEARBY THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS...41108 AND 41013 AND 41004... ILLUSTRATE THIS DOMINATING
GROUND SWELL. AS A RESULT...DOMINATING PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9
SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEST WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL PUSH COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO
25-30 KT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND POTENTIALLY
LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL.
OUR WAVE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE BASED HEAVILY ON THE LOCAL SWAN
MODEL...BUT WITH ONE IMPORTANT CHANGE. THE SWAN HAS A KNOWN BIAS
OF BUILDING SEAS TOO QUICKLY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. THEREFORE I
HAVE TRIMMED BACK ITS FORECASTS BY 1-2 FEET MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
NORTHEAST SURGE BEGINS. OTHERWISE ITS OUTPUT LOOKS ACCEPTABLE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST WED INTO THURS ENHANCING THE WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE WILL SEE NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND AND TROUGH/LOW OFF THE COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS TUES WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
TUES THROUGH WED NIGHT NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS. SHOULD REMAIN
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF LOW WHILE WATERS WELL OFF SHORE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LATEST WNA MODEL KEEPS SEAS AS HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS ON
WED AS LOW RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHARPENING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE A SOLID 25 TO 30 KTS AND MAY SEE WINDS
REACHING GALE FORCE OFF SHORE. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURS WITH
N-NW WINDS BACKING TO W-NW BY THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW TO N THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WATERS AND FURTHER OFF SHORE LATE FRI. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THURS NIGHT INTO FRI IN DECREASING OFF SHORE FLOW HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1247 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES EARLY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES TUESDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
TRACKING THE LIGHT BAND OF SNOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES. WILL UP POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NE KY AND S WV AS OF 06Z. AREA OF MID LEVEL
LIFT MAXIMIZED OVER E KY AND THE S COAL FIELDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN A
BIT NEXT SEVERAL HRS BY LATEST RUC. HRRR AGREES...WEAKENING
OVERALL MESO BAND AND SHIFTING IT SE BY 10Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS
IN FROM NW. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS LAWRENCE
CO KY...WITH HALF AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE. THINK AROUND AN INCH
ON AVG ACROSS NE KY/S WV BEFORE EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN. MAY SEE
SOME LOLLIPOP 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS...IN
PARTICULAR S MINGO AND S LOGAN CO. HAVE AN SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS
AND SLICK TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BREAK OUT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY WITH
JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU. NE KY/S WV/SW VA IN CROSS-HAIRS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE W. EVEN HERE THOUGH...SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT WITH MANY PLACES UNDER A FAIR SKY.
FOR TEMPS...RAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LATEST LAMP/HRRR WHICH
RESULTED IN SHAVING OFF A TICK OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GENERALLY 20S OUTSIDE OF MTNS...WITH SOME TEENS AOA 3KFT. FOR
TONIGHT...QUITE COLD WITH SOME DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BLO
ZERO READINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH WITH PERRY CO PROBABLY
BEING THE COLD SPOT YET AGAIN. GENERALLY LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE
WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SUSPECT SOME N LOWLAND COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO AS
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD IS THEN
CONSIDERABLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET
WOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OVER THE REGION. GFS/SREF
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF HAS HAD
A HABIT OF ADVERTISING THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM NUMEROUS TIMES IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...BUT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER ALWAYS BACKS
OFF. GFS HAS HAD A MUCH BETTER TRACK RECORD WITH NOT SHOWING THE BIG
ONE. IN ADDITION...THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE WEST...AND HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST AS A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION. JUST BE AWARE...THAT THE EXTREMES ARE POSSIBLE...AS
IN MAJOR STORM...OR NO STORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EITHER UP...OR OFF...THE E COAST...ON THU.
THE SYSTEM DEPENDS UPON A NEGATIVE TILT S/W TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST CAN THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOW MUCH IT CLOSES OFF
/HOW INTENSE IT BECOMES/...AND THEREFORE...HOW MUCH THE STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS A WEAKER S/W TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN DIGGING FEATURE. THIS MAY SHUNT THE SYSTEM EWD LONGER
WED NT...SO THAT...EVEN IT IT DOES THEN TURN N THU MORNING...IT
WILL HAVE ALREADY OUT-FLANKED...OR MOVED AROUND...THE FCST AREA...BY
THEN.
THE GEM IS MOST INTENSE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWFHIRES IS
FARTHEST W...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR W AS AT LEAST ITS LAST THREE
RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS E OF THE OHIO RIVER WED NT INTO THU TO REFLECT
THE COMPROMISE/WPC SOLN HERE...WITH ONLY A SCHC FARTHER W.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE OUT W...BUT THE PATTERN ALSO REMAINS NOT
VERY AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE THE FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE COLD
OUTBREAKS NOT THAT COLD. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS...THIS
LIKELY FAVORS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE WED NT-THU E COAST
SYSTEM. IT ALSO MEANS THAT SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT.
A COLD FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY A S/W TROUGH AS THE
L/W ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT THEN. THE FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS ITSELF
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT INCREASE WITH FCST PROJECTION TIME...SO
THAT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND NATURE OF ANY
SYSTEM TRAVERSING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL AND A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS IN SOME CASES.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECONDARY MESO BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRAVERS THE SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AREA...BUT WILL NOT AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SUCH AS
BKW. STRATUS CONTINUES TO LIFT AND DISSOLVE...AND SHOULD BE A NON
FACTOR BY 20Z. SKY WILL BE PRIMARILY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTH. MAY SEE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT IN MVFR MIST...AS SUPPORTED
BY LAMP GUIDANCE. HAVE A FEW HOURS OF IFR AT BKW.
ONE CONCERN IS THAT WE MAY HAVE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FOG
TONIGHT...ADDING IT TO TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE CATEGORIES TO
IFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TEMPOS FOR IFR MIST/FOG TONIGHT. MAY
NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE PREVAILING FOG CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE
PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
907 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES EARLY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES TUESDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NE KY AND S WV AS OF 06Z. AREA OF MID LEVEL
LIFT MAXIMIZED OVER E KY AND THE S COAL FIELDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN A
BIT NEXT SEVERAL HRS BY LATEST RUC. HRRR AGREES...WEAKENING
OVERALL MESO BAND AND SHIFTING IT SE BY 10Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS
IN FROM NW. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS LAWRENCE
CO KY...WITH HALF AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE. THINK AROUND AN INCH
ON AVG ACROSS NE KY/S WV BEFORE EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN. MAY SEE
SOME LOLLIPOP 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS...IN
PARTICULAR S MINGO AND S LOGAN CO. HAVE AN SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS
AND SLICK TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BREAK OUT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY WITH
JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU. NE KY/S WV/SW VA IN CROSS-HAIRS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE W. EVEN HERE THOUGH...SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT WITH MANY PLACES UNDER A FAIR SKY.
FOR TEMPS...RAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LATEST LAMP/HRRR WHICH
RESULTED IN SHAVING OFF A TICK OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GENERALLY 20S OUTSIDE OF MTNS...WITH SOME TEENS AOA 3KFT. FOR
TONIGHT...QUITE COLD WITH SOME DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BLO
ZERO READINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH WITH PERRY CO PROBABLY
BEING THE COLD SPOT YET AGAIN. GENERALLY LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE
WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SUSPECT SOME N LOWLAND COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO AS
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD IS THEN
CONSIDERABLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET
WOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OVER THE REGION. GFS/SREF
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF HAS HAD
A HABIT OF ADVERTISING THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM NUMEROUS TIMES IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...BUT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER ALWAYS BACKS
OFF. GFS HAS HAD A MUCH BETTER TRACK RECORD WITH NOT SHOWING THE BIG
ONE. IN ADDITION...THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE WEST...AND HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST AS A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION. JUST BE AWARE...THAT THE EXTREMES ARE POSSIBLE...AS
IN MAJOR STORM...OR NO STORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EITHER UP...OR OFF...THE E COAST...ON THU.
THE SYSTEM DEPENDS UPON A NEGATIVE TILT S/W TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST CAN THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOW MUCH IT CLOSES OFF
/HOW INTENSE IT BECOMES/...AND THEREFORE...HOW MUCH THE STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS A WEAKER S/W TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN DIGGING FEATURE. THIS MAY SHUNT THE SYSTEM EWD LONGER
WED NT...SO THAT...EVEN IT IT DOES THEN TURN N THU MORNING...IT
WILL HAVE ALREADY OUT-FLANKED...OR MOVED AROUND...THE FCST AREA...BY
THEN.
THE GEM IS MOST INTENSE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWFHIRES IS
FARTHEST W...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR W AS AT LEAST ITS LAST THREE
RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS E OF THE OHIO RIVER WED NT INTO THU TO REFLECT
THE COMPROMISE/WPC SOLN HERE...WITH ONLY A SCHC FARTHER W.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE OUT W...BUT THE PATTERN ALSO REMAINS NOT
VERY AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE THE FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE COLD
OUTBREAKS NOT THAT COLD. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS...THIS
LIKELY FAVORS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE WED NT-THU E COAST
SYSTEM. IT ALSO MEANS THAT SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT.
A COLD FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY A S/W TROUGH AS THE
L/W ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT THEN. THE FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS ITSELF
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT INCREASE WITH FCST PROJECTION TIME...SO
THAT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND NATURE OF ANY
SYSTEM TRAVERSING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL AND A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS IN SOME CASES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
MESO BAND OF -SN WILL CONT TO WEAKEN TO JUST FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING AFTER 12Z ACROSS S COAL FIELDS AND SE WV PLATEAU. DRIER
AIR WORKS IN THIS MORNING HELPING TO SCT OUT THE MVFR CIGS FOR A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TDY AMID SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S
TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR STRATOCU REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
N TERMINALS MIDDAY ONWARD. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
WNW LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WITH 5 TO 15 KT NW SURFACE
FLOW...SLACKENING TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE
PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
548 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES EARLY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES TUESDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE... MESO BAND WEAKENING AS EXPECTED OVER THE S COAL
FIELDS AND SE WV PLATEAU. EXPECT CONT WEAKENING TO JUST SOME
FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING AROUND SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS POINT. RE-UPPED THE SPS EARLIER FOR
POSSIBLE SLICK TRAVEL FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NE KY AND S WV AS OF 06Z. AREA OF MID LEVEL
LIFT MAXIMIZED OVER E KY AND THE S COAL FIELDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN A
BIT NEXT SEVERAL HRS BY LATEST RUC. HRRR AGREES...WEAKENING
OVERALL MESO BAND AND SHIFTING IT SE BY 10Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS
IN FROM NW. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS LAWRENCE
CO KY...WITH HALF AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE. THINK AROUND AN INCH
ON AVG ACROSS NE KY/S WV BEFORE EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN. MAY SEE
SOME LOLLIPOP 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS...IN
PARTICULAR S MINGO AND S LOGAN CO. HAVE AN SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS
AND SLICK TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BREAK OUT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY WITH
JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU. NE KY/S WV/SW VA IN CROSS-HAIRS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE W. EVEN HERE THOUGH...SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT WITH MANY PLACES UNDER A FAIR SKY.
FOR TEMPS...RAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LATEST LAMP/HRRR WHICH
RESULTED IN SHAVING OFF A TICK OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GENERALLY 20S OUTSIDE OF MTNS...WITH SOME TEENS AOA 3KFT. FOR
TONIGHT...QUITE COLD WITH SOME DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BLO
ZERO READINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH WITH PERRY CO PROBABLY
BEING THE COLD SPOT YET AGAIN. GENERALLY LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE
WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SUSPECT SOME N LOWLAND COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO AS
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD IS THEN
CONSIDERABLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET
WOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OVER THE REGION. GFS/SREF
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF HAS HAD
A HABIT OF ADVERTISING THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM NUMEROUS TIMES IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...BUT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER ALWAYS BACKS
OFF. GFS HAS HAD A MUCH BETTER TRACK RECORD WITH NOT SHOWING THE BIG
ONE. IN ADDITION...THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE WEST...AND HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST AS A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION. JUST BE AWARE...THAT THE EXTREMES ARE POSSIBLE...AS
IN MAJOR STORM...OR NO STORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EITHER UP...OR OFF...THE E COAST...ON THU.
THE SYSTEM DEPENDS UPON A NEGATIVE TILT S/W TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST CAN THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOW MUCH IT CLOSES OFF
/HOW INTENSE IT BECOMES/...AND THEREFORE...HOW MUCH THE STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS A WEAKER S/W TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN DIGGING FEATURE. THIS MAY SHUNT THE SYSTEM EWD LONGER
WED NT...SO THAT...EVEN IT IT DOES THEN TURN N THU MORNING...IT
WILL HAVE ALREADY OUT-FLANKED...OR MOVED AROUND...THE FCST AREA...BY
THEN.
THE GEM IS MOST INTENSE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWFHIRES IS
FARTHEST W...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR W AS AT LEAST ITS LAST THREE
RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS E OF THE OHIO RIVER WED NT INTO THU TO REFLECT
THE COMPROMISE/WPC SOLN HERE...WITH ONLY A SCHC FARTHER W.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE OUT W...BUT THE PATTERN ALSO REMAINS NOT
VERY AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE THE FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE COLD
OUTBREAKS NOT THAT COLD. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS...THIS
LIKELY FAVORS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE WED NT-THU E COAST
SYSTEM. IT ALSO MEANS THAT SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT.
A COLD FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY A S/W TROUGH AS THE
L/W ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT THEN. THE FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS ITSELF
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT INCREASE WITH FCST PROJECTION TIME...SO
THAT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND NATURE OF ANY
SYSTEM TRAVERSING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL AND A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS IN SOME CASES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
MESO BAND OF -SN WILL CONT TO WEAKEN TO JUST FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING AFTER 12Z ACROSS S COAL FIELDS AND SE WV PLATEAU. DRIER
AIR WORKS IN THIS MORNING HELPING TO SCT OUT THE MVFR CIGS FOR A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TDY AMID SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S
TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR STRATOCU REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
N TERMINALS MIDDAY ONWARD. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
WNW LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WITH 5 TO 15 KT NW SURFACE
FLOW...SLACKENING TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M H M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE
PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
306 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES EARLY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES TUESDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NE KY AND S WV AS OF 06Z. AREA OF MID LEVEL LIFT
MAXIMIZED OVER E KY AND THE S COAL FIELDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN A BIT
NEXT SEVERAL HRS BY LATEST RUC. HRRR AGREES...WEAKENING OVERALL
MESO BAND AND SHIFTING IT SE BY 10Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM NW.
HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS LAWRENCE CO KY...WITH
HALF AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE. THINK AROUND AN INCH ON AVG
ACROSS NE KY/S WV BEFORE EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN. MAY SEE SOME
LOLLIPOP 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS...IN PARTICULAR S
MINGO AND S LOGAN CO. HAVE AN SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS AND SLICK
TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BREAK OUT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY WITH
JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU. NE KY/S WV/SW VA IN CROSS-HAIRS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE W. EVEN HERE THOUGH...SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT WITH MANY PLACES UNDER A FAIR SKY.
FOR TEMPS...RAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LATEST LAMP/HRRR WHICH
RESULTED IN SHAVING OFF A TICK OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GENERALLY 20S OUTSIDE OF MTNS...WITH SOME TEENS AOA 3KFT. FOR
TONIGHT...QUITE COLD WITH SOME DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BLO
ZERO READINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH WITH PERRY CO PROBABLY
BEING THE COLD SPOT YET AGAIN. GENERALLY LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE
WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SUSPECT SOME N LOWLAND COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO AS
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD IS THEN
CONSIDERABLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET
WOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OVER THE REGION. GFS/SREF
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF HAS HAD
A HABIT OF ADVERTISING THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM NUMEROUS TIMES IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...BUT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER ALWAYS BACKS
OFF. GFS HAS HAD A MUCH BETTER TRACK RECORD WITH NOT SHOWING THE BIG
ONE. IN ADDITION...THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE WEST...AND HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST AS A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION. JUST BE AWARE...THAT THE EXTREMES ARE POSSIBLE...AS
IN MAJOR STORM...OR NO STORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EITHER UP...OR OFF...THE E COAST...ON THU.
THE SYSTEM DEPENDS UPON A NEGATIVE TILT S/W TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST CAN THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOW MUCH IT CLOSES OFF
/HOW INTENSE IT BECOMES/...AND THEREFORE...HOW MUCH THE STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS A WEAKER S/W TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN DIGGING FEATURE. THIS MAY SHUNT THE SYSTEM EWD LONGER
WED NT...SO THAT...EVEN IT IT DOES THEN TURN N THU MORNING...IT
WILL HAVE ALREADY OUT-FLANKED...OR MOVED AROUND...THE FCST AREA...BY
THEN.
THE GEM IS MOST INTENSE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWFHIRES IS
FARTHEST W...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR W AS AT LEAST ITS LAST THREE
RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS E OF THE OHIO RIVER WED NT INTO THU TO REFLECT
THE COMPROMISE/WPC SOLN HERE...WITH ONLY A SCHC FARTHER W.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE OUT W...BUT THE PATTERN ALSO REMAINS NOT
VERY AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE THE FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE COLD
OUTBREAKS NOT THAT COLD. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS...THIS
LIKELY FAVORS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE WED NT-THU E COAST
SYSTEM. IT ALSO MEANS THAT SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT.
A COLD FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY A S/W TROUGH AS THE
L/W ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT THEN. THE FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS ITSELF
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT INCREASE WITH FCST PROJECTION TIME...SO
THAT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND NATURE OF ANY
SYSTEM TRAVERSING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL AND A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS IN SOME CASES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
AREA OF -SN CONT ACROSS NE KY/S WV AS OF 06Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
WIND DOWN PREDAWN. IN MEANTIME...HAVE GENERAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH
SOME TEMPO IFR ACROSS KCRW/KBKW IN SN. DRIER AIR WORKS IN LATER
THIS MORNING HELPING TO SCT OUT THE MVFR CIGS AS SN ENDS ACROSS
THE S...FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY AMID SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONT.
WNW LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WITH 5 TO 15 KT NW SURFACE
FLOW...SLACKENING TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 02/10/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H L H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M L L L L L
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE
PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30
EQUIPMENT...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
147 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES EARL MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NE KY AND S WV AS OF 06Z. AREA OF MID LEVEL LIFT
MAXIMIZED OVER E KY AND THE S COAL FIELDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN A BIT
NEXT SEVERAL HRS BY LATEST RUC. HRRR AGREES...WEAKENING OVERALL
MESO BAND AND SHIFTING IT SE BY 10Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM NW.
HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS LAWRENCE CO KY...WITH
HALF AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE. THINK AROUND AN INCH ON AVG
ACROSS NE KY/S WV BEFORE EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN. MAY SEE SOME
LOLLIPOP 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS...IN PARTICULAR S
MINGO AND S LOGAN CO. HAVE AN SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS AND SLICK
TRAVEL ON UNTREATED RDS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BREAK OUT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY WITH
JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU. NE KY/S WV/SW VA IN CROSS-HAIRS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE W. EVEN HERE THOUGH...SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT WITH MANY PLACES UNDER A FAIR SKY.
FOR TEMPS...RAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LATEST LAMP/HRRR WHICH
RESULTED IN SHAVING OFF A TICK OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GENERALLY 20S OUTSIDE OF MTNS...WITH SOME TEENS AOA 3KFT. FOR
TONIGHT...QUITE COLD WITH SOME DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BLO
ZERO READINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH WITH PERRY CO PROBABLY
BEING THE COLD SPOT YET AGAIN. GENERALLY LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE
WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SUSPECT SOME N LOWLAND COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO AS
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PROVIDING COLD
NIGHTS..WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD IMPROVE OVER 32 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION NOTICED BY MODELS AT H85. THESE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS IN RESPONSE OF AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN H5 VORTICITY CHARTS.
THE AREA AND MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EXIST ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASS BY...AND THE SFC LOW
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED SREF...GFS MOS AND PERSISTENCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KEPT QUITE COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH PORTIONS OF SE OH...SPECIFICALLY PERRY CO...ONCE AGAIN
GOING BELOW ZERO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EITHER UP...OR OFF...THE E COAST...ON THU.
THE SYSTEM DEPENDS UPON A NEGATIVE TILT S/W TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST CAN THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOW MUCH IT CLOSES OFF
/HOW INTENSE IT BECOMES/...AND THEREFORE...HOW MUCH THE STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS A WEAKER S/W TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN DIGGING FEATURE. THIS MAY SHUNT THE SYSTEM EWD LONGER
WED NT...SO THAT...EVEN IT IT DOES THEN TURN N THU MORNING...IT
WILL HAVE ALREADY OUT-FLANKED...OR MOVED AROUND...THE FCST AREA...BY
THEN.
THE GEM IS MOST INTENSE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWFHIRES IS
FARTHEST W...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR W AS AT LEAST ITS LAST THREE
RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS E OF THE OHIO RIVER WED NT INTO THU TO REFLECT
THE COMPROMISE/WPC SOLN HERE...WITH ONLY A SCHC FARTHER W.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE OUT W...BUT THE PATTERN ALSO REMAINS NOT
VERY AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE THE FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE COLD
OUTBREAKS NOT THAT COLD. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS...THIS
LIKELY FAVORS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE WED NT-THU E COAST
SYSTEM. IT ALSO MEANS THAT SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT.
A COLD FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY A S/W TROUGH AS THE
L/W ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT THEN. THE FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS ITSELF
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT INCREASE WITH FCST PROJECTION TIME...SO
THAT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND NATURE OF ANY
SYSTEM TRAVERSING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL AND A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS IN SOME CASES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
AREA OF -SN CONT ACROSS NE KY/S WV AS OF 06Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
WIND DOWN PREDAWN. IN MEANTIME...HAVE GENERAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH
SOME TEMPO IFR ACROSS KCRW/KBKW IN SN. DRIER AIR WORKS IN LATER
THIS MORNING HELPING TO SCT OUT THE MVFR CIGS AS SN ENDS ACROSS
THE S...FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY AMID SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONT.
WNW LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WITH 5 TO 15 KT NW SURFACE
FLOW...SLACKENING TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 02/10/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H L H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M L L L L L
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE
PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
413 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
NUISANCE MINOR SNOW TONIGHT WITH UPPER SYSTEM.
AMPLE MODEL TO MODEL & WITHIN MODEL DIFFERENCES.
12Z WRF WAS INITALLY DRY EXCEPT OSAGE COUNTY...
18Z WRF NOW PAINTS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
TULSA METRO INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GFS SNOW
LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING AND ECMWF AS DRY AS
12Z WRF. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AND REGIONAL RADAR
SUGGEST A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF SNOW. EARLIER
ADVISORY EXPANDED A TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH TO
INCLUDE TULSA METRO AREA. DOUBT AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL ONE INCH
SNOW OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION BUT WILL LEAVE
CURRENT ADVISORY ALONE... EXCEPT TO ADD CHOCTAW
COUNTY TO AVOID A DONUT HOLE. EVENING SHIFT CAN
WRESTLE WITH ANY HEADLINES WHEN PRECIP ACTUALLY
STARTS IN CWA.
BIG NEWS IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BEGINS AT
MID WEEK..THE END OF WINTER HERE? AS MEAN RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE ROCKIES. NEXT WEEKEND DRY / ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 14 29 17 41 / 50 10 0 0
FSM 24 33 20 42 / 50 20 10 0
MLC 21 30 17 44 / 40 20 10 0
BVO 12 26 12 39 / 50 10 0 0
FYV 14 31 12 38 / 40 10 0 10
BYV 12 29 14 38 / 40 10 0 10
MKO 18 28 18 41 / 60 10 10 0
MIO 10 27 16 38 / 40 0 0 10
F10 17 27 17 43 / 60 10 10 0
HHW 25 34 23 46 / 40 40 20 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR
OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
OKZ076.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR
ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1152 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 10/06Z TAF CYCLE.
SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARED ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING, WHICH
ALLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BEGIN. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINS HAS HELD DEWPOINTS UP AND FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM IN
THE VALLEYS. FOG IS ALREADY IN PLACE AT KOTH AND THINK THIS WILL
DEVELOP WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS AT KMFR AND KRBG AS WELL. IT
IS EVEN POSSIBLE AT KLMT. HAVE UPDATED 10/06Z TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST BY DAWN AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIFT FOG INTO STRATUS AT KOTH. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
MID MORNING MONDAY. RAIN CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS THERE AS SKIES CLEAR. -WRIGHT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING. CAN`T RULE OUT
A STRAY SHOWER HERE AND THERE OVER OUR OREGON ZONES (IN FACT, ONE
JUST PASSED THROUGH THE ROGUE VALLEY), BUT THE BULK OF TONIGHT
WILL BE DRY OVER SW OREGON. IT IS STILL RAINING ACROSS EASTERN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES, AND THE 10/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND
GFS WANT TO HOLD ONTO RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THESE
AREAS. HOWEVER, RADAR SHOWS RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND I`LL SIDE WITH RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE MODELS. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN ONTO THE
NORTH COAST TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT WILL BE MORE OF A NUISANCE
THAN ANYTHING IMPORTANT. THE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND WIND
STORM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. -WRIGHT
MARINE...THE WATERS ARE IN A LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALSO LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND WEST SWELL TRAINS
THAT ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE COMBINED SEAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS LIGHT RAIN TO
THE WATERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
WITH HIGH AND VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ONE OF SEVERAL
FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUED STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS AND
PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL
AND RADAR RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHERN CAL. THE RAP SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS EVENING, BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THEN A FEW TICKS ON
THE RAIN GAGE. THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL QUICKLY ZIP EAST AND
WE`LL SEE STEADY PRECIPITATION DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, I`M NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION. WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY IN
SOUTHERN OREGON.
A WEAK FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST RANGE...NORTHWEST DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND NORTHERN CASCADES. NORTHERN CAL AND MUCH OF THE EASTSIDE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG
UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE I`M FAIRLY
CONFIDENT WE`LL REMAIN DRY.
OF BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY AND TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION AIMED
RIGHT AT US. THE GFS SHOWS 925 MB WINDS PUSHING 65 KTS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. IF THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT, THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING A
HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTH COAST.
AT THE SAME TIME, MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE
COAST RANGE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO HAVE PRECIP AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
RANGE, 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. KEEP IN MID THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND THE
SPECIFICS OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD CHANGE. EVEN THOUGH RIVER
FLOWS HAVE BEEN LOW, THEY WILL COME UP AND IF WE GET A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION, THEY WILL COME UP AND
IF NOTHING ELSE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAPID RISES ALONG SOME OF
THE SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
HIGH (BETWEEN 7500 AND 8000 FEET) ON WEDNESDAY -PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
FRONTS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE WET AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND A LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE 12Z MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE PACNW EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, MODELS ARE
ALSO INDICATING A PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AIMED
AT THE AREA. THE GFS AND GEFS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ORIGINATING FROM NEAR HAWAII AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HIGH
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS, MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. ALSO
AS THE STRONG FRONT MOVES INLAND, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SUMMER LAKE AND SHASTA VALLEY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IN PARTICULAR LINGERS THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD MOISTURE WOULD PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GEFS
PUSH THE FRONT INLAND FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
THEN ON SATURDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER MODERATE TO
STRONG FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA. THE GFS, GEFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST EARLY SATURDAY
THEN INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EMCWF DEPICTS THE LOW CENTER FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND WOULD SUPPORT AND INCREASED CHANCE FOR
STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, POSSIBLY DOWN TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
815 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING. CAN`T RULE OUT
A STRAY SHOWER HERE AND THERE OVER OUR OREGON ZONES (IN FACT, ONE
JUST PASSED THROUGH THE ROGUE VALLEY), BUT THE BULK OF TONIGHT
WILL BE DRY OVER SW OREGON. IT IS STILL RAINING ACROSS EASTERN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES, AND THE 10/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND
GFS WANT TO HOLD ONTO RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THESE
AREAS. HOWEVER, RADAR SHOWS RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND I`LL SIDE WITH RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE MODELS. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN ONTO THE
NORTH COAST TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT WILL BE MORE OF A NUISANCE
THAN ANYTHING IMPORTANT. THE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND WIND
STORM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. -WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IT
IS CREATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KRBG.
MEANTIME...BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS A MIX OF VFR CEILINGS AND IFR
COAST AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OVERNIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STABILIZATION
BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. A NEW FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST ON MONDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES INCLUDING KRBG. OTHERWISE...VALLEY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
&&
.MARINE...THE WATERS ARE IN A LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALSO LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND WEST SWELL TRAINS THAT
ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE COMBINED SEAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS LIGHT RAIN TO THE WATERS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH HIGH AND
VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ONE OF SEVERAL FRONTS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE CONTINUED STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS AND PERIODS OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL
AND RADAR RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHERN CAL. THE RAP SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS EVENING, BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THEN A FEW TICKS ON
THE RAIN GAGE. THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL QUICKLY ZIP EAST AND
WE`LL SEE STEADY PRECIPITATION DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, I`M NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION. WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY IN
SOUTHERN OREGON.
A WEAK FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST RANGE...NORTHWEST DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND NORTHERN CASCADES. NORTHERN CAL AND MUCH OF THE EASTSIDE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG
UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE I`M FAIRLY
CONFIDENT WE`LL REMAIN DRY.
OF BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY AND TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION AIMED
RIGHT AT US. THE GFS SHOWS 925 MB WINDS PUSHING 65 KTS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. IF THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT, THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING A
HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTH COAST.
AT THE SAME TIME, MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE
COAST RANGE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO HAVE PRECIP AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
RANGE, 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. KEEP IN MID THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND THE
SPECIFICS OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD CHANGE. EVEN THOUGH RIVER
FLOWS HAVE BEEN LOW, THEY WILL COME UP AND IF WE GET A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION, THEY WILL COME UP AND
IF NOTHING ELSE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAPID RISES ALONG SOME OF
THE SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
HIGH (BETWEEN 7500 AND 8000 FEET) ON WEDNESDAY -PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
FRONTS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE WET AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND A LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE 12Z MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE PACNW EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, MODELS ARE
ALSO INDICATING A PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AIMED
AT THE AREA. THE GFS AND GEFS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ORIGINATING FROM NEAR HAWAII AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HIGH
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS, MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. ALSO
AS THE STRONG FRONT MOVES INLAND, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SUMMER LAKE AND SHASTA VALLEY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IN PARTICULAR LINGERS THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD MOISTURE WOULD PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GEFS
PUSH THE FRONT INLAND FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
THEN ON SATURDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER MODERATE TO
STRONG FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA. THE GFS, GEFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST EARLY SATURDAY
THEN INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EMCWF DEPICTS THE LOW CENTER FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND WOULD SUPPORT AND INCREASED CHANCE FOR
STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, POSSIBLY DOWN TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1000 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EAST COAST
STORM IS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVR THE AREA WILL PRODUCE IDEAL CONDS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH A CLEAR SKY...CALM WIND AND SNOW
COVER. LATE EVENING IR LOOP SHOWS EARLIER STRATOCU HAS CLEARED UP
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED BY FALLING TO -2F AT
KBFD AT 03Z.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO...FEEL CONFIDENT IN UNDERCUTTING MOS MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES. RAP OUTPUT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...INDICATING
LOWS MOSTLY BTWN 5-10 BLW ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR ZERO IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE CYCLE CONTINUES TO PLACE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. POOR MAN`S ENSEMBLE
OF CMC/NAM/GFS STILL FAVOR...PERHAPS AT THEIR PERIL...AN OFFSHORE
TRACK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER QPF THAN THEIR EUROPEAN
COUNTERPART. HOWEVER...A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z NAM...WHICH
INCORPORATED DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT LEVEL DATA FROM AIR FORCE RECON
OVR THE GULF OF MEX...CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN OFFSHORE SFC LOW
TRACK WITH THE HVY SNOW THREAT FROM HARRISBURG SEWRD. CHALLENGE
FOR OUR AREA IS HANDLING THE SHARP GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK AND RESOLVING THE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN LIQUID OUTPUT FROM THESE TWO CAMPS.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR LOUISIANA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF RESULTANT DEEP CONVECTION WILL
LARGELY DETERMINE HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE SFC LOW CAN TRACK.
LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST WITH THE SFC LOW
TRACK PLACING A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL PA INTO THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT SNOWFALL THURSDAY. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY OFF
ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT HAVE WEIGHTED PREVIOUS QPF AND SNOWFALL 20%
OF THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH JOGS OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THE
WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE...UPGRADED WATCHES
TO WARNINGS FOR LANCASTER YORK AND ADAMS...AND ISSUED WATCHES FOR
SCHUYLKILL LEBANON DAUPHIN PERRY CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON AND
BEDFORD COUNTIES. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF STATE COLLEGE AND JOHNSTOWN...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT YET FOR THESE AREAS AND THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THESE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT.
SNOWFALL SHOULD LAST A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY OVER THE EAST
BEFORE TAPERING OFF...PERHAPS AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES INVOF THE SFC LOW TRACK...
WHICH MAY DRY SLOT THE PIEDMONT REGION. STILL MANY DETAILS TO WORK
OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT TREND IS FOR RAMPING UP SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY AND *PERHAPS* A MORE WESTERN SFC LOW TRACK AS PER ECMWF.
HAVE NOT COMPLETELY BOUGHT OFF ON ECMWF DETAILS...BUT ITS
CONSISTENCY AND POTENCY ARE UNDENIABLE AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE
WESTWARD TREND CONTINUE...WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND WATCHES NORTHWARD
EVEN FURTHER...ANOTHER ARGUMENT FOR HOLDING OFF ON ADVISORY
ISSUANCES ON THIS TIME TO ALLOW FLEXIBILITY TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THU
NIGHT. LEFT SOME SNOW IN FOR THU EVENING...MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN IS FAR EASTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS.
DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THE PERIOD OF FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST.
NW FLOW WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
ON SAT.
SOME HINTS OF WEAK SYSTEMS DROPPING SE SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS
WENT WITH CHC POPS.
LEFT MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
RIDGE LOCATION.
SOME VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO TUE. WEIGHTED FCST CLOSER TO WPC GRAPHICS. GFS LOOKS
A LITTLE FAST.
SOME HINTS OF A MILDER PATTERN AS ONE GETS OUT IN TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
WEAKENING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO LINGERING A FEW
MORE HOURS ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES/BFD...BEFORE CLEARING SETS IN.
ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD...DRY ARCTIC HIGH IN CONTROL.
AN EAST COAST STORM WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH REDUCTIONS
LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT-THU...MVFR N TO IFR/LIFR SE IN SN.
FRI- SUN...MVFR TO IFR WITH SCT SHSN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
807 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EAST COAST
STORM IS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVR THE AREA WILL PRODUCE IDEAL CONDS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH A CLEAR SKY...CALM WIND AND SNOW
COVER. EVENING IR LOOP SHOWING LINGERING STRATOCU BREAKING UP OVR
THE NW MTNS. ARRIVAL OF SFC HIGH AND FALLING INVERSION HGTS SHOULD
PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES UP THERE BY ARND 03Z.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO...FEEL CONFIDENT IN UNDERCUTTING MOS MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES. RAP OUTPUT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...INDICATING
LOWS MOSTLY BTWN 5-10 BLW ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR ZERO OVR IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
SNOW THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY
WITH EARLIER WATCHES NOW UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOR LANCASTER YORK
AND ADAMS COUNTIES. POOR MAN`S ENSEMBLE OF CMC/NAM/GFS STILL
FAVOR...PERHAPS AT THEIR PERIL...AN OFFSHORE TRACK WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER QPF THAN THEIR EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. THE
CHALLENGE FOR OUR AREA IS HANDLING THE SHARP GRADIENT ON THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK AND RESOLVING THE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN LIQUID OUTPUT FROM THESE TWO CAMPS.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR LOUISIANA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF RESULTANT DEEP CONVECTION WILL
LARGELY DETERMINE HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE SFC LOW CAN TRACK.
LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST WITH THE SFC LOW
TRACK PLACING A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL PA INTO THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT SNOWFALL THURSDAY. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY OFF
ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT HAVE WEIGHTED PREVIOUS QPF AND SNOWFALL
20% OF THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH JOGS OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THE
WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE...UPGRADED WATCHES
TO WARNINGS FOR LANCASTER YORK AND ADAMS...AND ISSUED WATCHES FOR
SCHUYLKILL LEBANON DAUPHIN PERRY CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON AND
BEDFORD COUNTIES. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF STATE COLLEGE AND JOHNSTOWN...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT YET FOR THESE AREAS AND THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THESE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT.
SNOWFALL SHOULD LAST A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY OVER THE EAST
BEFORE TAPERING OFF...PERHAPS AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES INVOF THE SFC LOW TRACK...
WHICH MAY DRY SLOT THE PIEDMONT REGION. STILL MANY DETAILS TO WORK
OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT TREND IS FOR RAMPING UP SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY AND *PERHAPS* A MORE WESTERN SFC LOW TRACK AS PER ECMWF.
HAVE NOT COMPLETELY BOUGHT OFF ON ECMWF DETAILS...BUT ITS
CONSISTENCY AND POTENCY ARE UNDENIABLE AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE
WESTWARD TREND CONTINUE...WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND WATCHES NORTHWARD
EVEN FURTHER...ANOTHER ARGUMENT FOR HOLDING OFF ON ADVISORY
ISSUANCES ON THIS TIME TO ALLOW FLEXIBILITY TO FUTURE (EVENING AND
MIDNIGHT) SHIFTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THU
NIGHT. LEFT SOME SNOW IN FOR THU EVENING...MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN IS FAR EASTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS.
DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THE PERIOD OF FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST.
NW FLOW WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
ON SAT.
SOME HINTS OF WEAK SYSTEMS DROPPING SE SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS
WENT WITH CHC POPS.
LEFT MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
RIDGE LOCATION.
SOME VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO TUE. WEIGHTED FCST CLOSER TO WPC GRAPHICS. GFS LOOKS
A LITTLE FAST.
SOME HINTS OF A MILDER PATTERN AS ONE GETS OUT IN TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
WEAKENING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO LINGERING A FEW
MORE HOURS ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES/BFD...BEFORE CLEARING SETS IN.
ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD...DRY ARCTIC HIGH IN CONTROL.
AN EAST COAST STORM WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH REDUCTIONS
LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT-THU...MVFR N TO IFR/LIFR SE IN SN.
FRI- SUN...MVFR TO IFR WITH SCT SHSN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
739 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EAST COAST
STORM IS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVR THE AREA WILL PRODUCE IDEAL CONDS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH A CLEAR SKY...CALM WIND AND SNOW
COVER. EVENING IR LOOP SHOWING LINGERING STRATOCU BREAKING UP OVR
THE NW MTNS. ARRIVAL OF SFC HIGH AND FALLING INVERSION HGTS SHOULD
PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES UP THERE BY ARND 03Z.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO...FEEL CONFIDENT IN UNDERCUTTING MOS MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES. RAP OUTPUT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...INDICATING
LOWS MOSTLY BTWN 5-10 BLW ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR ZERO OVR IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
SNOW THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY
WITH EARLIER WATCHES NOW UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOR LANCASTER YORK
AND ADAMS COUNTIES. POOR MAN`S ENSEMBLE OF CMC/NAM/GFS STILL
FAVOR...PERHAPS AT THEIR PERIL...AN OFFSHORE TRACK WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER QPF THAN THEIR EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. THE
CHALLENGE FOR OUR AREA IS HANDLING THE SHARP GRADIENT ON THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK AND RESOLVING THE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN LIQUID OUTPUT FROM THESE TWO CAMPS.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR LOUISIANA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF RESULTANT DEEP CONVECTION WILL
LARGELY DETERMINE HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE SFC LOW CAN TRACK.
LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST WITH THE SFC LOW
TRACK PLACING A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL PA INTO THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT SNOWFALL THURSDAY. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY OFF
ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT HAVE WEIGHTED PREVIOUS QPF AND SNOWFALL
20% OF THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH JOGS OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THE
WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE...UPGRADED WATCHES
TO WARNINGS FOR LANCASTER YORK AND ADAMS...AND ISSUED WATCHES FOR
SCHUYLKILL LEBANON DAUPHIN PERRY CUMBLERAND FRANKLIN FULTON AND
BEDFORD COUNTIES. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF STATE COLLEGE AND JOHNSTOWN...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT YET FOR THESE AREAS AND THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THESE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT.
SNOWFALL SHOULD LAST A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY OVER THE EAST
BEFORE TAPERING OFF...PERHAPS AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES INVOF THE SFC LOW TRACK...
WHICH MAY DRY SLOT THE PIEDMONT REGION. STILL MANY DETAILS TO WORK
OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT TREND IS FOR RAMPING UP SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY AND *PERHAPS* A MORE WESTERN SFC LOW TRACK AS PER ECMWF.
HAVE NOT COMPLETELY BOUGHT OFF ON ECMWF DETAILS...BUT ITS
CONSISTENCY AND POTENCY ARE UNDENIABLE AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE
WESTWARD TREND CONTINUE...WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND WATCHES NORTHWARD
EVEN FURTHER...ANOTHER ARGUMENT FOR HOLDING OFF ON ADVISORY
ISSUANCES ON THIS TIME TO ALLOW FLEXIBILITY TO FUTURE (EVENING AND
MIDNIGHT) SHIFTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THU
NIGHT. LEFT SOME SNOW IN FOR THU EVENING...MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN IS FAR EASTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS.
DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THE PERIOD OF FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST.
NW FLOW WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
ON SAT.
SOME HINTS OF WEAK SYSTEMS DROPPING SE SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS
WENT WITH CHC POPS.
LEFT MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
RIDGE LOCATION.
SOME VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO TUE. WEIGHTED FCST CLOSER TO WPC GRAPHICS. GFS LOOKS
A LITTLE FAST.
SOME HINTS OF A MILDER PATTERN AS ONE GETS OUT IN TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAKENING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LINGERING MVFR/IFR STRATOCU DECK
AND LOWER CIGS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SFC HIGH AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO FLOW
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRIMARILY VFR.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL EMCOMPASS ALL OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE.
AN EAST COAST STORM WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH REDUCTIONS
LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED NGT-THU...MVFR N TO IFR/LIFR SE IN SN.
FRI-SUN...MVFR TO IFR WITH SCT SHSN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
639 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEGINNING TO INTERACT ALONG GULF COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING ALONG
GULF COAST. PRECIP HAS BROKEN OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS
AND ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO MISSISSIPPI AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
TONIGHT. HRRR HAS WINTRY PRECIP SKIRTING SOUTHERN BORDER AROUND
12Z WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE
MID STATE BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF AN INCH OR MORE
ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
PLATEAU WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERWESTERN AREAS OF THE MID
STATE INCLUDING NASHVILLE WILL BE ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE SNOW
AREA BUT UP TO ONE HALF INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE. THINK
CLARKSVILLE COULD SEE A DUSTING WITH CROSSVILLE GETTING A COUPLE OF
INCHES AND POSSIBLY THREE BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ011-032>034-065-066-077>080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TNZ061>064-075-093>095.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
720 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Per GOES satellite imagery, the back edge of the low cloud field
at 7 PM extends from near Lubbock to Lamesa to just west of Big
Lake, and south across western Crockett County. The clearing has
been advancing to the east, but has slowed down. The NAM and GFS
do not have a good handle on the westward extent of this low cloud
field. The latest RUC13 model shows a halt in the eastward
clearing this evening, with the low cloud cover persisting across
most if not all of our area until at least 3 AM, and then has
boundary layer moisture beginning to decrease across our western
counties after 3 AM. For now, going with a scenario of gradual
clearing from west to east tonight. If clearing does occur, some
light fog could develop. We have patchy freezing fog mentioned
after Midnight. A forecast update was made to bring current sky
condition and temperatures in line with recent trends, and to
delay the clearing tonight. Also made a few tweaks to overnight
lows, as the current temperature at Sweetwater was just a degree
above the forecast low. Will monitor and make any updates as
needed tonight.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
The Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire at 6 PM this
evening as precipitation has ended across the area, and visibilities
are not rising across the area as well. However, roads will remain
very slick and hazardous throughout the night tonight as some ice
remained on the roads all day, and any melting that did occur
earlier today will likely refreeze overnight, resulting in continued
very hazardous travel conditions across the area.
Also, see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
20
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Low end MVFR to high end IFR ceilings will continue to
affect area TAFS through the next 3 to 6 hours this evening.
Clearing is expected to take place later tonight, and the clearing
line can be seen moving east toward our TAF sites, but it is still
several hours away at this point. Later tonight, due to clear
skies, and cooling temperatures, there is a possibility of some
light fog developing, so have inserted a TEMPO for 3SM BR towards
sunrise tomorrow morning. By 9 AM, the area should be free of low
ceilings or visibility obstructions for the rest of the TAF period
through tomorrow evening. West winds of less than 10 knots will
develop by late morning.
20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)
Temperatures across most of the West Central Texas this afternoon
remain in the 20s. Extensive stratus continues, which has helped
to keep temperatures from rising very much. Areas of freezing
drizzle, freezing fog and some light sleet continue across much of
the region, and is forecast to steadily shift east this evening.
Skies will clear from west to east, with most areas becoming
partly cloudy to clear by midnight. In the meantime, surface high
pressure will settle across the area, with winds becoming light.
Light winds, clear skies, and dewpoint temperatures in the lower
20s will result in ideal radiational cooling conditions. A very
cold morning is forecast, with lows generally in the lower to mid
20s. I would not be surprised to see a few low lying locations or
river valleys drop into the upper teens. In addition, as
temperatures drop to near the dewpoint temperature, and winds
remain light, areas of freezing fog could develop. I have included
patchy freezing fog in the grids for now, and depending on trends
tonight, a freezing fog advisory may be needed if the fog becomes
more widespread than currently forecast. Residents are urged to
remain cautious overnight as any ice that has melted, will likely
refreeze as temperatures remain in the 20s.
Any fog that does form during the early morning hours will begin
to dissipate by 9 am, with temperatures rising above freezing by
late morning. This should allow for improving road conditions by
mid to late morning. The raw start to the morning, will lead to a
very nice afternoon, with highs generally in the mid 50s to lower
60s.
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through early next week)
Once we get past the current storm system, all quiet for the next
week. Main upper level system shifts into the Southeast US,
leaving the Southern Plains in northwest flow into the weekend.
This is a dry pattern in the cool season, and see nothing to
suggest anything different this time around. Surface high pressure
shifts east as well, so south and southwest flow and lots of sun
will lead to much warmer temperatures. Models suggest that we will
pushing the 80 degree mark for much of the area over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 21 54 34 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 22 60 33 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Junction 22 60 32 70 39 / 5 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
720 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Per GOES satellite imagery, the back edge of the low cloud field
at 7 PM extends from near Lubbock to Lamesa to just west of Big
Lake, and south across western Crockett County. The clearing has
been advancing to the east, but has slowed down. The NAM and GFS
do not have a good handle on the westward extent of this low cloud
field. The latest RUC13 model shows a halt in the eastward
clearing this evening, with the low cloud cover persisting across
most if not all of our area until at least 3 AM, and then has
boundary layer moisture beginning to decrease across our western
counties after 3 AM. For now, going with a scenario of gradual
clearing from west to east tonight. If clearing does occur, some
light fog could develop. We have patchy freezing fog mentioned
after Midnight. A forecast update was made to bring current sky
condition and temperatures in line with recent trends, and to
delay the clearing tonight. Also made a few tweaks to overnight
lows, as the current temperature at Sweetwater was just a degree
above the forecast low. Will monitor and make any updates as
needed tonight.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
The Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire at 6 PM this
evening as precipitation has ended across the area, and visibilities
are not rising across the area as well. However, roads will remain
very slick and hazardous throughout the night tonight as some ice
remained on the roads all day, and any melting that did occur
earlier today will likely refreeze overnight, resulting in continued
very hazardous travel conditions across the area.
Also, see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
20
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Low end MVFR to high end IFR ceilings will continue to
affect area TAFS through the next 3 to 6 hours this evening.
Clearing is expected to take place later tonight, and the clearing
line can be seen moving east toward our TAF sites, but it is still
several hours away at this point. Later tonight, due to clear
skies, and cooling temperatures, there is a possibility of some
light fog developing, so have inserted a TEMPO for 3SM BR towards
sunrise tomorrow morning. By 9 AM, the area should be free of low
ceilings or visibility obstructions for the rest of the TAF period
through tomorrow evening. West winds of less than 10 knots will
develop by late morning.
20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)
Temperatures across most of the West Central Texas this afternoon
remain in the 20s. Extensive stratus continues, which has helped
to keep temperatures from rising very much. Areas of freezing
drizzle, freezing fog and some light sleet continue across much of
the region, and is forecast to steadily shift east this evening.
Skies will clear from west to east, with most areas becoming
partly cloudy to clear by midnight. In the meantime, surface high
pressure will settle across the area, with winds becoming light.
Light winds, clear skies, and dewpoint temperatures in the lower
20s will result in ideal radiational cooling conditions. A very
cold morning is forecast, with lows generally in the lower to mid
20s. I would not be surprised to see a few low lying locations or
river valleys drop into the upper teens. In addition, as
temperatures drop to near the dewpoint temperature, and winds
remain light, areas of freezing fog could develop. I have included
patchy freezing fog in the grids for now, and depending on trends
tonight, a freezing fog advisory may be needed if the fog becomes
more widespread than currently forecast. Residents are urged to
remain cautious overnight as any ice that has melted, will likely
refreeze as temperatures remain in the 20s.
Any fog that does form during the early morning hours will begin
to dissipate by 9 am, with temperatures rising above freezing by
late morning. This should allow for improving road conditions by
mid to late morning. The raw start to the morning, will lead to a
very nice afternoon, with highs generally in the mid 50s to lower
60s.
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through early next week)
Once we get past the current storm system, all quiet for the next
week. Main upper level system shifts into the Southeast US,
leaving the Southern Plains in northwest flow into the weekend.
This is a dry pattern in the cool season, and see nothing to
suggest anything different this time around. Surface high pressure
shifts east as well, so south and southwest flow and lots of sun
will lead to much warmer temperatures. Models suggest that we will
pushing the 80 degree mark for much of the area over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 21 54 34 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 22 60 33 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Junction 22 60 32 70 39 / 5 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
116 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
THE PLUME OF SNOW HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER NORTHERN SWISHER
AND CASTRO COUNTIES. PERHAPS STILL LINGERING FLURRIES...BUT EVENT
APPEARS TO BE OVER. WE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A
LITTLE EARLY AS A RESULT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014/
UPDATE...
A BAND OF SNOW EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE NEAR A POWER
PLANT NEAR BORGER HAS SPREAD OVER AMARILLO AND THICKENED AS IT
MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN SWISHER AND NORTHEASTERN CASTRO
COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAD SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS HAPPY BY
1015 THIS MORNING. RADAR ALSO INDICATED VERY LIGHT SNOW HAD SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN SWISHER...NORTHWESTERN HALE...AND EASTERN LAMB
COUNTIES THOUGH QUESTIONABLE IF THIS WAS RELATED TO THE PLUME FROM
THE PANHANDLE. ANYWAY...WE HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH 21Z FOR CASTRO AND SWISHER COUNTIES AND WILL REASSESS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL PLUME SHOULD STEER SLIGHTLY
MORE TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...IF IT
REMAINS THAT LONG. RMCQUEEN
AVIATION...
A COLD AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
LATEST LOOKS AT SATELLITE AND THE SHORT-TERM RAP MODEL CAST DOUBTS
ABOUT THE ABILITY FOR THIS LAYER TO BREAK COMPLETELY THOUGH SHOULD
AT LEAST THIN BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z. THEN...THIS LAYER ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LIFT SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AND
MAY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOOKS
TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING SNOW AS DOMINANT WEATHER....THOUGH MAY
VALIDATE SNOW SHOWER MENTION AT BOTH TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO REMAIN INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR BOTH SITES...PERHAPS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014/
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS ARE ON TRACK TO IMPROVE BY MID-DAY AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES ON NELY WINDS...BEFORE RESUMING IFR AND MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
LBB SHOULD SEE -FZDZ AND FLURRIES END THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY IFR
CIGS RISING TO MVFR. SOME TEMPO VFR BREAKS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTN...BUT WE/LL KEEP MVFR THE PREDOMINANT MODE AS ANY VFR BREAKS
SHOULD QUICKLY END TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ANYWHERE FROM LBB TO
CDS...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS THIS COVERAGE
MAY PROVE TOO SPARSE AND COMPLETELY MISS THE TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...
COLD AND DREARY MONDAY WILL THANKFULLY BE THE LOW-LIGHT OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A MILDER PATTERN IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER. UNTIL THEN...
MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE WINDS COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT STRATUS
WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO LEAVE THE REGION TODAY AS A STUBBORN AXIS
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS NOTED UPSTREAM OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
HELP LIFT LOW CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING AND ULTIMATELY RID THE
REGION OF ITS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO FAR...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
OF -FZDZ HAVE YIELDED A THIN GLAZE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. AREA ROADS
ARE FARING VERY WELL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WINTER WX ADVISORY
ATTM FOR ANY WIDESPREAD TRAVEL ISSUES.
HOWEVER BY LATE TONIGHT...A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY HAVE A BIT MORE
MERIT AS A MODEST UPPER TROUGH /PRESENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT
BASIN/ SHARPENS A TOUCH BEFORE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS BY TUE
MORNING. CONSIDERING WE WILL RETAIN STRATUS OVERNIGHT...A MODEST
INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD
EASILY GARNER A FEW SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES. THE GREATEST CAVEAT
WE SEE INVOLVES THE EXTENT OF THIS DEEPER MOISTENING AND LIFT AS
THIS PARTICULAR OPEN WAVE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SOME SERIOUS
MOISTURE DEFICITS ALOFT BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED. THIS SERIOUSLY
LIMITS THE WINDOW FOR BOTH THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP...
SO THIS IS WHY WE ARE RELUCTANT TO RAISE POPS ABOVE THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW. POPS BEFORE 06Z WERE SCALED BACK MARKEDLY AS
LIFT AND MOISTENING WILL MERELY BE IN THEIR INFANCY BEFORE THE
TROUGH ARRIVES CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. REGARDING PRECIP PHASE...A WARM
NOSE IS STILL EVIDENT ON MOST SOUNDINGS DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIP...SO WE HAVE KEPT A PELLET AND LIGHT SNOW MIX INTACT
ACROSS OUR SRN AND ERN ZONES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY 12Z TUE
APPEAR QUITE LIGHT - GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONSIDERING TEMPS ARE FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN THE PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THE EXTENT OF STRATUS TODAY...MAX TEMPS WERE PULLED
BACK TO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES.
LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE NM STATE LINE APPEAR MORE PRONE TO EROSION JUST
AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE
TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
LONG TERM...
AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING RIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN UNUSUALLY
CONSISTENT IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BAND. AS NOTED
ABOVE...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE QUITE A DEPTH OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE SHOULD BECOME SATURATED BY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND. ALSO TAKING PLACE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING OF A WARM
NOSE UP AROUND 5-7KFT SO THAT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPROCK
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. WARM NOSE TAKES A WHILE LONGER
TO ERODE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO ALL BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...ALL OF
THE SNOW AMOUNT SREF MEMBERS /AS SHOWN ON THE SPC PLUMES FOR KLBB/
SHOW AMOUNTS UNDER ONE INCH...AND EVEN THE MOST OPTIMISTIC OF
MODELS KEEP LIQUID AMOUNTS AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH SO WE
SHOULD SEE ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING BUT AS THE TROF AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
MAY HELP TO BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TIMING OF THE TROF IS A BIT FASTER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SO WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH TO GET HIGHS OUT
OF THE 30S FOR PART OF THE AREA.
ONCE WE GET PAST TUESDAY...WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE WARM-UP DOWN A BIT. MODELS WERE TAKING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE COOLED BACK DOWN
IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS. TEMPS WARM UP A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT STALLS THE WARM UP ON FRIDAY.
END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS A LITTLE BIT MORE INTERESTING AS FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF TRIES TO WORK NORTHWARD. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TRIES TO
BACK DOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY IN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW ALLOW MOISTURE LEVELS TO
INCREASE SOME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS A LEE SURFACE TROF
DEVELOPS INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SOME. JUST PAST THE END OF
THE FORECAST...A QUICK MOVING TROF ON MONDAY MAY DRIVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE. WAAAAAAY TO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS COULD GIVE US
SOME PRECIP BUT WE WILL KEEP THE FINGERS CROSSED AND HOPE THE
FORECAST PANS OUT.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 18 37 24 57 33 / 40 20 0 0 0
TULIA 18 35 22 54 32 / 40 30 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 18 36 22 54 32 / 40 30 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 20 37 25 57 33 / 40 30 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 20 36 24 56 32 / 40 30 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 23 38 27 60 35 / 30 20 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 22 37 25 58 34 / 30 20 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 20 31 20 51 30 / 30 40 0 0 0
SPUR 22 32 22 54 32 / 30 40 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 23 32 22 53 32 / 30 40 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1102 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
A BAND OF SNOW EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE NEAR A POWER
PLANT NEAR BORGER HAS SPREAD OVER AMARILLO AND THICKENED AS IT
MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN SWISHER AND NORTHEASTERN CASTRO
COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAD SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS HAPPY BY
1015 THIS MORNING. RADAR ALSO INDICATED VERY LIGHT SNOW HAD SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN SWISHER...NORTHWESTERN HALE...AND EASTERN LAMB
COUNTIES THOUGH QUESTIONABLE IF THIS WAS RELATED TO THE PLUME FROM
THE PANHANDLE. ANYWAY...WE HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH 21Z FOR CASTRO AND SWISHER COUNTIES AND WILL REASSESS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL PLUME SHOULD STEER SLIGHTLY
MORE TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...IF IT
REMAINS THAT LONG. RMCQUEEN
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
LATEST LOOKS AT SATELLITE AND THE SHORT-TERM RAP MODEL CAST DOUBTS
ABOUT THE ABILITY FOR THIS LAYER TO BREAK COMPLETELY THOUGH SHOULD
AT LEAST THIN BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z. THEN...THIS LAYER ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LIFT SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AND
MAY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOOKS
TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING SNOW AS DOMINANT WEATHER....THOUGH MAY
VALIDATE SNOW SHOWER MENTION AT BOTH TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO REMAIN INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR BOTH SITES...PERHAPS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014/
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS ARE ON TRACK TO IMPROVE BY MID-DAY AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES ON NELY WINDS...BEFORE RESUMING IFR AND MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
LBB SHOULD SEE -FZDZ AND FLURRIES END THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY IFR
CIGS RISING TO MVFR. SOME TEMPO VFR BREAKS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTN...BUT WE/LL KEEP MVFR THE PREDOMINANT MODE AS ANY VFR BREAKS
SHOULD QUICKLY END TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ANYWHERE FROM LBB TO
CDS...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS THIS COVERAGE
MAY PROVE TOO SPARSE AND COMPLETELY MISS THE TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...
COLD AND DREARY MONDAY WILL THANKFULLY BE THE LOW-LIGHT OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A MILDER PATTERN IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER. UNTIL THEN...
MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE WINDS COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT STRATUS
WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO LEAVE THE REGION TODAY AS A STUBBORN AXIS
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS NOTED UPSTREAM OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
HELP LIFT LOW CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING AND ULTIMATELY RID THE
REGION OF ITS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO FAR...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
OF -FZDZ HAVE YIELDED A THIN GLAZE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. AREA ROADS
ARE FARING VERY WELL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WINTER WX ADVISORY
ATTM FOR ANY WIDESPREAD TRAVEL ISSUES.
HOWEVER BY LATE TONIGHT...A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY HAVE A BIT MORE
MERIT AS A MODEST UPPER TROUGH /PRESENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT
BASIN/ SHARPENS A TOUCH BEFORE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS BY TUE
MORNING. CONSIDERING WE WILL RETAIN STRATUS OVERNIGHT...A MODEST
INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD
EASILY GARNER A FEW SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES. THE GREATEST CAVEAT
WE SEE INVOLVES THE EXTENT OF THIS DEEPER MOISTENING AND LIFT AS
THIS PARTICULAR OPEN WAVE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SOME SERIOUS
MOISTURE DEFICITS ALOFT BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED. THIS SERIOUSLY
LIMITS THE WINDOW FOR BOTH THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP...
SO THIS IS WHY WE ARE RELUCTANT TO RAISE POPS ABOVE THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW. POPS BEFORE 06Z WERE SCALED BACK MARKEDLY AS
LIFT AND MOISTENING WILL MERELY BE IN THEIR INFANCY BEFORE THE
TROUGH ARRIVES CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. REGARDING PRECIP PHASE...A WARM
NOSE IS STILL EVIDENT ON MOST SOUNDINGS DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIP...SO WE HAVE KEPT A PELLET AND LIGHT SNOW MIX INTACT
ACROSS OUR SRN AND ERN ZONES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY 12Z TUE
APPEAR QUITE LIGHT - GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONSIDERING TEMPS ARE FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN THE PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THE EXTENT OF STRATUS TODAY...MAX TEMPS WERE PULLED
BACK TO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES.
LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE NM STATE LINE APPEAR MORE PRONE TO EROSION JUST
AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE
TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
LONG TERM...
AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING RIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN UNUSUALLY
CONSISTENT IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BAND. AS NOTED
ABOVE...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE QUITE A DEPTH OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE SHOULD BECOME SATURATED BY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND. ALSO TAKING PLACE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING OF A WARM
NOSE UP AROUND 5-7KFT SO THAT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPROCK
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. WARM NOSE TAKES A WHILE LONGER
TO ERODE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO ALL BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...ALL OF
THE SNOW AMOUNT SREF MEMBERS /AS SHOWN ON THE SPC PLUMES FOR KLBB/
SHOW AMOUNTS UNDER ONE INCH...AND EVEN THE MOST OPTIMISTIC OF
MODELS KEEP LIQUID AMOUNTS AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH SO WE
SHOULD SEE ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING BUT AS THE TROF AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
MAY HELP TO BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TIMING OF THE TROF IS A BIT FASTER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SO WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH TO GET HIGHS OUT
OF THE 30S FOR PART OF THE AREA.
ONCE WE GET PAST TUESDAY...WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE WARM-UP DOWN A BIT. MODELS WERE TAKING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE COOLED BACK DOWN
IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS. TEMPS WARM UP A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT STALLS THE WARM UP ON FRIDAY.
END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS A LITTLE BIT MORE INTERESTING AS FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF TRIES TO WORK NORTHWARD. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TRIES TO
BACK DOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY IN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW ALLOW MOISTURE LEVELS TO
INCREASE SOME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS A LEE SURFACE TROF
DEVELOPS INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SOME. JUST PAST THE END OF
THE FORECAST...A QUICK MOVING TROF ON MONDAY MAY DRIVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE. WAAAAAAY TO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS COULD GIVE US
SOME PRECIP BUT WE WILL KEEP THE FINGERS CROSSED AND HOPE THE
FORECAST PANS OUT.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 32 18 37 24 57 / 10 40 20 0 0
TULIA 25 18 35 22 54 / 40 40 30 0 0
PLAINVIEW 26 18 36 22 54 / 10 40 30 0 0
LEVELLAND 30 20 37 25 57 / 10 40 30 0 0
LUBBOCK 28 20 36 24 56 / 10 40 30 0 0
DENVER CITY 33 23 38 27 60 / 10 30 20 0 0
BROWNFIELD 30 22 37 25 58 / 10 30 20 0 0
CHILDRESS 27 20 31 20 51 / 10 30 40 0 0
SPUR 27 22 32 22 54 / 10 30 40 0 0
ASPERMONT 27 23 32 22 53 / 10 30 40 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022-023.
&&
$$
05/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1146 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY AND
THEN BECOME THE FOCUS OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM SUNDAY...
PUSH OF COLDER AIR SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW...
WITH UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RR QUAD OF JET. BELIEVE
THIS BOOST OF ENERGY WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FOR
THE WRN SLOPES AND WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT TO INDICATE THIS. STILL
BELIEVE IT TO BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT SO JUST A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL.
ALSO BUMPED WINDS UP A BIT EARLY ON...BUT THEY WILL BE SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...FORECAST HAS FLIPPED FROM DRY TO WET...ESP AREAS
SOUTH OF 460. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE SHOW YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY.
THIS SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MTNS MONDAY
MORNING. NARROW RIBBON OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA
IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF VIRGINIA ROUTE 460...OR SOUTH OF A
BLF-ROA-LYH LINE...IMPACTING OUR VA/NC BORDER COUNTIES.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ABOUT A TENTH /0.10/ OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH TRANSLATES TO ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOW IF IT ALL CAN STICK. FAIRLY CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY OF NC AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY WILL BE PLENTY COLD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS SHOULD
ADHERE TO THE SURFACE. EAST OF THE MTNS...NOT AS CONFIDENT...ESP
SINCE TEMPERATURES REACHED 50 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE
PRECIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY FALL AS WHITE RAIN...SNOW THAT
MELTS ON CONTACT. THAT SAID...FORECAST WILL REFLECT 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...TRENDING TO AN INCH OR LESS
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BEST LIFT FOR PRECIP PRODUCTION MOVES THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 12-16Z (7-11AM) THEN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
FROM 16-21Z (11AM-5PM). AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...SHOULD
SEE PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE TEMPERED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP IN THE AREA. DON`T FORESEE THEM GETTING OUT OF THE
30S...WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINING IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SUNDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING...TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT COLD. AT THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
STALLED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...NOW BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
ATTENTION AS ENERGY FROM THE WEST COAST CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THEN BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND THE DEEP
SOUTH...TRANSLATING INTO A COASTAL STORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTION WITH
REGARDS TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM AND IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. AS NEIGHBORING OFFICE GSP
POINTED OUT SUCCINCTLY...THE CIPS ANALOG SHOWS THAT THE BEST DATE
MATCH FOR THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREDICTED
WEDNESDAY...LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION
DEPICTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF. ALTHOUGH FORECASTERS TYPICALLY LIKE TO
SEE EVERY MODEL SHOWING A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR IMPACTFUL
STORMS...THE CONSISTENCY AND SKILL OF THE ECMWF AND THE CLUES FROM
THE CIPS ANALOG SITE VERY WELL MAY TRUMP THAT NEED. THE STRUGGLES
OF THE GFS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND THE POOR PERFORMANCE
OF THE NAM AT 78-84 HRS CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED.
MANY OF THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ARE IN
PLACE...CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN SE
CANADA...WHICH SLOWS SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
PHASING AND/OR EVENTUAL NEGATIVE TILT...AND A STRONG WEDGING
SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE BEFORE THE PRECIP SHIELD
ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF NEW ENGLAND
LATER WEDNESDAY...BY THAT TIME THE WEDGE WILL BE OF AN IN SITU
VARIETY...WITH A COLD ENOUGH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOCKED IN TO
KEEP AN ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING JUST BELOW FREEZING.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ICE STORM EARLIER THIS SEASON...THIS IS
PROBABLY THE STRONGEST SIGNAL WE`VE SEEN ALL WINTER THIS MANY DAYS
AWAY...WITH REGARDS TO AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM. STILL
THOUGH...NEED TO SEE THIS EVENT FULLY MOVE INTO THE 72 HR WINDOW
BEFORE TURNING THE FORECAST STRONGLY TOWARDS A WINTER STORM.
WEDNESDAY WOULD SEEM TO BE THE DAY THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WITH A SHOT OF SUB -10C H85 AIR MAY ARRIVE DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW SEEMS TO QUICKLY TURN MORE
ZONAL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST ALLOWING FOR QUICK WAA TO CLOSE
NEXT WEEKEND. SOME UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SE WEST VA
BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THURSDAY ALSO APPEARS TO BE A
CALMER DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM EST SUNDAY...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO IFR CIGS AT BLF. AREA
RADARS WERE SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT KBLF AND SOON KLWB TO HAVE IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.
GFS AND NAM 12Z RUNS ARE BOTH ADVERTISING SOME PRECIP RUNNING ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SHOWS LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN KDAN AS EARLY AS
16Z AND CIGS MAY AT LEAST FALL TO MVFR WHEN THE SNOW BEGINS.
LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER INTO MONDAY EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEINGS STRETCHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MODELS STILL ADVERTISING POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF ALONG THE FRONT THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME SNOW WOULD BE
THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE OVER OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLY RAIN MIXING IN AT
DAN. THERE COULD BE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE LOW TRACK...STAY TUNED...BUT TRAVEL BY AIR
OVERALL DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...KM/PM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/KM
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1017 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014
.AVIATION...SOME CONCERN REGARDING THE IMPACT OF AN AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY IMPACT
THE WINDS AT KDEN. COULD SEE WINDS BECOME NELY FOR A TIME AFTER
10Z...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRATUS MAKING IT INTO DENVER BUT WL
STILL NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON THINGS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014/
UPDATE...RADAR INDICATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW DROPPING ACROSS
SERN WY/WRN NEBRASKA...WITH THE RUC MOVES THIS AREA OF PCPN INTO
OUR NERN PLAINS ZONES OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED CHC/SLGT CHC POPS
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO LAST CHANCE TNGT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014/
UPDATE...LATEST CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS TOWARDS 00Z THU AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 19Z THU. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR ZONES 35 AND 36.
AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH S/SWLY WINDS FOR KDEN AND
KAPA THE MOST PART...MORE WLY AT KBJC. STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR KBJC LATE WED AFTN/EVNG THAT THOSE REFLECTED IN THE
CURRENT TAF...SO WL LIKELY ADJUST THAT STARTING AROUND 21-22Z WED
AFTN AT THE 06Z ISSUANCE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014/
SHORT TERM...THE RAP...NAM AND GFS MODELS ALL INDICATE A SHORT
PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. RADAR DATA
FROM SALT LAKE CITY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN ECHOES OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPARENTLY BE JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE MENTIONED UP TO A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES NOW.
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND FOOTHILL AREAS WILL
BE THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND UP TO 55 MPH OVER PARTS OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL WINDS UP TO 120 KNOTS
WILL BE DRIVING THE WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE MOUNTAIN WAVE COMES DOWN OVER THE
FOOTHILLS. ON THE PLAINS...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE
EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOWER 20S. THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN WARMING TODAY UNDER THE BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SO THE VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A
THING OF THE PAST.
LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE PRETTY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE JET MAXIMUM IS
PROGGED TO BE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THOSE FIVE PERIODS.
THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE VERY LITTLE UPWARD MOTION FOR
ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE TIME WEAK DOWNWARD ENERGY IS PROGGED. FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. CONCERNING MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF HAS CONSIDERABLE LESS DURING THAT TIME. THE NAM IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON ALL THE MODELS. THE QPF FIELDS DO SHOW
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES
ALL FIVE PERIOD. SO CONCERNING POPS AND THE MOUNTAINS HIGHLIGHTS
.MOISTURE IS GOOD ON THE GFS...POOR ON THE ECMWF. THERE IS WARM
AIR ADVECTION MUCH OF THE TIME AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN
THEY SHOULD BE FOR OPTIMUM CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
THERE IS PRETTY DECENT WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION TO AID IN
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HOWEVER. THERE IS LITTLE HELP IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY DEPARTMENT AND THE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE. QPF FIELDS POINT TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS...MAYBE. WILL
LEAVE WATCH HIGHLIGHTS ALONE AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED ZERO POPS FOR
THE PLAINS. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE
3-5 C WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE A TAD COOLER ON
FRIDAY. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAIRLY
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT DECREASES A BIT AND IS MOSTLY
WESTERLY. THERE IS SOME ALPINE MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
.BUT NOTHING GREAT. THE REST OF THE DAYS ARE PRETTY DRY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ALL FOUR DAYS.
AVIATION...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN UNLIMITED.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COZ035-036.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ031-033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
948 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014
.UPDATE...RADAR INDICATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW DROPPING ACROSS
SERN WY/WRN NEBRASKA...WITH THE RUC MOVES THIS AREA OF PCPN INTO
OUR NERN PLAINS ZONES OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED CHC/SLGT CHC POPS
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO LAST CHANCE TNGT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014/
UPDATE...LATEST CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS TOWARDS 00Z THU AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 19Z THU. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR ZONES 35 AND 36.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH S/SWLY WINDS FOR KDEN AND
KAPA THE MOST PART...MORE WLY AT KBJC. STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR KBJC LATE WED AFTN/EVNG THAT THOSE REFLECTED IN THE
CURRENT TAF...SO WL LIKELY ADJUST THAT STARTING AROUND 21-22Z WED
AFTN AT THE 06Z ISSUANCE.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014/
SHORT TERM...THE RAP...NAM AND GFS MODELS ALL INDICATE A SHORT
PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. RADAR DATA
FROM SALT LAKE CITY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN ECHOES OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPARENTLY BE JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE MENTIONED UP TO A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES NOW.
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND FOOTHILL AREAS WILL
BE THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND UP TO 55 MPH OVER PARTS OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL WINDS UP TO 120 KNOTS
WILL BE DRIVING THE WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE MOUNTAIN WAVE COMES DOWN OVER THE
FOOTHILLS. ON THE PLAINS...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE
EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOWER 20S. THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN WARMING TODAY UNDER THE BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SO THE VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A
THING OF THE PAST.
LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE PRETTY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE JET MAXIMUM IS
PROGGED TO BE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THOSE FIVE PERIODS.
THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE VERY LITTLE UPWARD MOTION FOR
ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE TIME WEAK DOWNWARD ENERGY IS PROGGED. FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. CONCERNING MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF HAS CONSIDERABLE LESS DURING THAT TIME. THE NAM IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON ALL THE MODELS. THE QPF FIELDS DO SHOW
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES
ALL FIVE PERIOD. SO CONCERNING POPS AND THE MOUNTAINS HIGHLIGHTS
..MOISTURE IS GOOD ON THE GFS...POOR ON THE ECMWF. THERE IS WARM
AIR ADVECTION MUCH OF THE TIME AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN
THEY SHOULD BE FOR OPTIMUM CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
THERE IS PRETTY DECENT WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION TO AID IN
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HOWEVER. THERE IS LITTLE HELP IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY DEPARTMENT AND THE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE. QPF FIELDS POINT TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS...MAYBE. WILL
LEAVE WATCH HIGHLIGHTS ALONE AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED ZERO POPS FOR
THE PLAINS. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE
3-5 C WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE A TAD COOLER ON
FRIDAY. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAIRLY
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT DECREASES A BIT AND IS MOSTLY
WESTERLY. THERE IS SOME ALPINE MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
..BUT NOTHING GREAT. THE REST OF THE DAYS ARE PRETTY DRY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ALL FOUR DAYS.
AVIATION...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN UNLIMITED.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COZ035-036.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ031-033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM....RJK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
259 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2014
...Updated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
A weak cold front/surface boundary will drop south across
Nebraska overnight as an upper level trough crosses the Rockies
and moves out into the northern plains. NAM and GFS indicated an
increase in cloud cover will precede this upper level disturbance
so given the increase in cloud cover and a southwest wind at 10 to
15 mph will continue to favor the previous forecast with lows
overnight mainly in the teens for western Kansas. The cooler
temperatures will be where the heavier snowfall fell Monday night.
There will also be a chance for some freezing fog overnight based
on the south/slightly southeast wind direction during the first
half of the night along with mostly clear skies. HRRR also was
suggesting a period of reduced visibilities across south central
and portions of western Kansas until the winds begin to veer more
to the west after midnight. At this time dense fog is not
anticipated.
Morning clouds will give way to mostly sunny conditions on
Wednesday as the upper level disturbance moves into the Mid
Mississippi Valley. The weak cold front/surface boundary will
briefly move into the western Kansas early in the day. Despite the
frontal passage the 925mb to 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday
will be 2c to 4c warmer when compared to temperatures at 00z
Wednesday. Using this as a guide for highs and taking into account
snow cover across much of western Kansas the afternoon
temperatures are expected to range from the mid 30s to upper 40s.
The upper 40s will be mainly confined to extreme southwest Kansas
where there is little to no cover.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
The extended period will consist of an upper level ridge building
across the western United States for the remainder of the week
shifting eastward across the Rockies and Plains this weekend. A few
embedded shortwave troughs will move through this flow helping push
a few weak surface cold fronts through western Kansas. The main
problem with the temperature forecast is the effect of snow cover.
Melting will be a slow process, especially since ground temperatures
are below freezing. Nevertheless, temperatures are expected to
generally reach into the 60s by Saturday. The warming trend will
then be interrupted by a pacific cold front that will knock highs
into the 50s by Sunday and Monday. Temperatures then warm back up
into the 60s on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. South to
southwest winds at the beginning of the period will switch to the
northwest to north between 09z-12z as a weak cold front moves
through central and southwest Kansas. Winds could be gusty to
20-25 knots behind the front during the morning hours but winds
should decrease and become more westerly by afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 21 43 30 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 37 22 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 49 30 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 42 23 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 35 20 45 30 / 0 0 0 0
P28 36 20 45 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1046 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014
AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MORNING STRATUS LINGERING
AND MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM COLORADO. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 40S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS STRENGTHENING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE THE
TIMING OF THE LEE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FROM MELTING SNOW...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT FREEZING FOG WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHEN THE LEE TROUGH MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT...WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE FOG BY
MIXING IN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE HRRR...NAM AND LAMP GUIDANCE ALL
SUGGEST FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...BUT FOR VARYING LOCATIONS. SIDED WITH
THE HRRR ON FOG CHANCES AS THE LOCATIONS MORE ACCURATELY REFLECTED
THE ANTICIPATED SCENARIO. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SETTLE DOWN BEHIND THE LEE TROUGH BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE TIME TO WATCH CLOSELY WILL
BE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THESE
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY KANSAS. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
FOR TOMORROW...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. AS WITH TODAY...IT WAS
HARD TO PINPOINT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH THE SNOW FIELD
REMAINING BUT WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES. BASICALLY TOOK A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH A ONE DEGREE NUDGE UP FOR TOMORROW.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF CLOUDINESS ANTICIPATED. THIS COULD LIMIT WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON MAY HELP OVERCOME SOME OF THE INCOMING CLOUDINESS. FARTHER
EAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WARMING AS THEY
WILL HAVE PASSED OVER MANY MILES OF SNOW COVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY MUNDANE IN REGARD TO PRECIP. CHANCES AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE
MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE NAILING DOWN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS SEVERAL FRONTS MOVE THROUGH IN ADDITION TO
ESTIMATING HOW MUCH SNOW PACK WILL BE LEFT TO AFFECT TEMPERATES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WARMING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THREE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ACCOMPANYING EACH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WILL BE A COLD FRONT. BEHIND
EACH SHORT WAVE TROUGH A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HELPING TO NEGATE THE
EFFECTS OF THE BRIEF SPELL OF COOLER AIR. AFTER MONDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014
CONDITIONS AT MCK AND GLD WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
BETWEEN 06Z-08Z. WINDS WILL SLACKEN BY MORNING AND TURN SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 22Z AS ANOTHER THROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1139 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
A weak cold front/surface boundary will drop south across
Nebraska overnight as an upper level trough crosses the Rockies
and moves out into the northern plains. NAM and GFS indicated an
increase in cloud cover will precede this upper level disturbance
so given the increase in cloud cover and a southwest wind at 10 to
15 mph will continue to favor the previous forecast with lows
overnight mainly in the teens for western Kansas. The cooler
temperatures will be where the heavier snowfall fell Monday night.
There will also be a chance for some freezing fog overnight based
on the south/slightly southeast wind direction during the first
half of the night along with mostly clear skies. HRRR also was
suggesting a period of reduced visibilities across south central
and portions of western Kansas until the winds begin to veer more
to the west after midnight. At this time dense fog is not
anticipated.
Morning clouds will give way to mostly sunny conditions on
Wednesday as the upper level disturbance moves into the Mid
Mississippi Valley. The weak cold front/surface boundary will
briefly move into the western Kansas early in the day. Despite the
frontal passage the 925mb to 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday
will be 2c to 4c warmer when compared to temperatures at 00z
Wednesday. Using this as a guide for highs and taking into account
snow cover across much of western Kansas the afternoon
temperatures are expected to range from the mid 30s to upper 40s.
The upper 40s will be mainly confined to extreme southwest Kansas
where there is little to no cover.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
The mid to high level flow will remain fairly zonal through the
extended period, with embedded shortwave troughs bringing periodic
weak cold fronts through western Kansas. The main problem with the
temperature forecast is the effect of snow cover. Melting will be a
slow process, especially since ground temperatures are below
freezing. The warming trend will be interrupted by a pacific cold
front that will knock highs in the 60s Saturday into the 50s by
Sunday and Monday.
The models indicate low amplitude but deep upper troughing off
of the west coast by Feb 18-19th. This pattern would result in broad
west-southwest mid to high level flow regime across the high plains,
with lee troughing and very mild temperatures. Highs could reach
well into the 60s and 70s by February 18th.
The models are advertising a deep upper level trough in the western
United States by Feb 20th, with strong lee troughing by Feb
19th-20th. Highs will be in the 70s south of a frontal boundary over
the southern plains and probably extending into southern Kansas, with
cooler 60s across the central Plains. Persistent low level flow
from the Gulf of Mexico will result in 55-60F dewpoints into the
southern plains by Feb 19-20th. Eventually as the upper level trough
approaches the plains by the Feb 21st-23rd time frame,
thunderstorms could develop. Unless the system closes off and
moves very slowly, climatology suggests that the moist axis will
be over eastern Kansas, with drier air further west. However,
recall that an upper level trough and moisture return on February
23, 2007 resulted in severe weather, including F1 tornadoes in
Ford and Meade counties and 1 inch hail in Seward county. But
severe weather in February is exceedingly rare across western
Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. South to
southwest winds at the beginning of the period will switch to the
northwest to north between 09z-12z as a weak cold front moves
through central and southwest Kansas. Winds could be gusty to
20-25 knots behind the front during the morning hours but winds
should decrease and become more westerly by afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 15 35 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 16 36 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 23 50 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 17 42 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 17 34 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
P28 10 35 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
448 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK UP THE EAST
COAST AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND PASS NEAR CAPE COD ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY QUIET IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS FELL TO 20 BELOW OVER
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH OUR VERY DRY AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW COVER.
EXPECT READING TO REBOUND QUICKLY TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SLOWLY EASING OFF THE COASTLINE.
RELIED HEAVILY ON THE NAM12 FOR WINDS AND TEMPS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS STRENGTHENING STORM HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE TRACK CONTINUES
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. INITIALLY...THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTER SOME
INITIALLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE COLUMN EARLY.
THIS WESTWARD SHIFT MAY ALLOW A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR TO
REACH THE COASTLINE...BRINGING SLEET AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF RAIN
TO THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE
PRECIP TO EASE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE EURO/GFS FOR QPF.
RAN THE WIND EFFECTS TOOL TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS. THE SNOWFALL MAX WILL MOST LIKELY END UP OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COMPLEX COASTAL LOW WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FCST THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MRNG. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A FIRST SHOT OF HEAVY
WAA SNWOWFALL INTO THE REGION THU EVENG. AS THE DEEPENING CENTER
OF LOW PRES APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI...ENOUGH WAA IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CHANGEOVER
THE PTYPE TO A MIX OF SLEET AT TIMES OVER COASTAL AND SOME
ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AND WILL PUT A LIMIT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS.
OVERALL PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENT. ALL MODELS AGREE
ON OVER 1.0+ OF QPF WITH SOME APPROACHING CLOSER TO 2.0 INCHES OF
QPF. THE HVIEST QPF IS ALG THE COASTAL FNT AND BEST ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. BUT DUE TO ORGRAPHIC
LIFT AND PTYPE STAYING ALL SNOW AND HIGHER RATIOS HIGHER ACCUMS
ARE PSBL IN THE MTNS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW SYSTEM WILL
PLAY OUT AND CONSIDERING ITS LATE 3RD AND INTO 4TH PDS OF OUR FCST
WE HAVE OPTED KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY
FRI AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVES THRU ON SAT WITH
SOME SCT SNW SHWRS EXPECTED WITH SOME LGT ACCUMS PSBL IN THE MTNS.
A SFC/UPR RDG SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR SUN AND MON WITH TEMPS
REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUES AND MAY BRING
WARMER TEMPS AND A MIXED BAG OF PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AND LIFR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN HEAVY SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME MIX OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...LIFR CONDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THEN BECOMING
VFR BY FRI AFTN. POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR ON SATURDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
TO A GALE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS...AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS PSBL THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS THE THE LOW PASSES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT AND PSBLY HIGHER BY FRI MRNG. AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW EXITS QUICKLY FRI AFTN WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ018-019-023-024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-025>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ003>010-013-014.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1140 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
SNOW CONTINUED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING...AND HAS MADE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. CLEARING
WILL WORK INTO INTERNATIONAL FALLS BY 0830Z...THEN CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RAP HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS INTENSIFYING AS MID LVL TROF/1004MB SFC LOW
APPROACH THE CWA. PVC CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED INTO THE WRN HALF OF
THE CWA AS OF MID AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED
OVER NRN/WRN CWA. LATEST VWPDLH SHOWS 20/25KT WINDS AROUND THE TOP
OF THE MIXING LAYER AT THIS TIME. AREA OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN DISORGANIZED AND LIGHT SO
FAR. A BRIEF SNOWSHOWER OCCURRED AT KFOZ OTHERWISE ITS HAS BEEN
MAINLY DRY UNDERNEATH HIGHER LVL RADAR RETURNS OVER KOOCH/ITASCA
COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 CST TUE FEB 11 2014
TONIGHT..CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO BIFURCATE THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM WITH THE SFC LOW REDEVELOPING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
THIS REDUCES THE POTENTIAL BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ACTUAL SFC LOW. AS A RESULT WE SHOULD HAVE AN ELONGATED
PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONTAL BDRY PROVIDING A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIFT AS
IT PASSES ANY GIVEN LOCATION. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
ABOUT 3 TO 4 HRS OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH AREAL AVG QPF
OF .05"/.10"... AND A SLR OF 17:1 TO 20:1...SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BE
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY...OR SLOW TO FALL
UNTIL FROPA.
TOMORROW...FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN. MOST PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY OVER NWRN WISC
IN THE MORNING. TIME HEIGHT XSECTS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN AND
REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 CST TUE FEB 11 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. HAVE BROKEN GRIDS INTO
3 HOUR INCREMENTS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...TO APPLY BETTER TIMING AND
RESOLUTION. WILL INCREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH LIKELY TO 80 PLUS POPS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATER IN
THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THAT AN ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT. SREF PLUME
MEAN VALUES ARE INDICATING SOLID ADVISORY AMOUNTS WITH 2 TO 5 ACROSS
THE CWA. THE HIGHEST LOOKS TO BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND ALSO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER TYPE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL MN...AND INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A
SWATH OF GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AMOUNTS MAY ACTUALLY SNEAK
TOWARD THE 6 INCH MARK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH
REGARD TO A WEAK SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL STICK
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD AFFECT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO THE 30S ON MONDAY BUT BACK OFF A BIT TO THE
20S ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING. CLEARING WAS MOVING TOWARD THE KINL
AREA...AND SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 0830Z. THE CLEARING OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
ALSO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN BACK LATE IN THE PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER
WILL START TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY
AFTER 06Z ON THE 13TH. THIS CLIPPER IS STRONGER AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH IT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 3 12 5 20 / 80 10 80 90
INL -7 5 -1 11 / 90 10 90 60
BRD 2 12 8 21 / 80 10 90 40
HYR 4 19 9 26 / 80 20 80 80
ASX 7 18 7 24 / 70 20 70 80
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1054 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS AS DRY AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ALOFT...BLANKETS OF CIRRUS WILL CROSS. AN EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EARLY WED MORNING IN THE LOWER PECOS RIVER
VALLEY AROUND KROW...WHERE THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE NAILING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS. THE MODEL IS
ACTUALLY CALLING FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING CIRRUS
SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH AROUND KROW TO PREVENT THE
VSBY FM DROPPING MUCH BELOW 1 MILE. WINDS IN THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE N OR NW AROUND
12-14Z...WHEN THE RESULTANT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE FOG TO
DIMINISH. MUCH DRIER AIR THAT ARRIVES WED AND PERSISTENT NW FLOW
WILL PREVENT FOG FROM RETURNING TO KROW THURS NIGHT.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...302 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY PATTERN AND WARMING TREND WILL SET THE PACE FOR THE NEW
MEXICO WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
WELL ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS...BEFORE SOME COOLER AIR INVADES
THE EAST TO START NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TROUGH ALOFT THAT SWEPT THROUGH NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
NOW LIES EAST OF THE STATE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY. FLOW OVERHEAD HAS VEERED TO THE NORTHWEST...AS
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOVES BACK
TO THE EAST EN ROUTE TO TEXAS.
MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
OVER THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND SYSTEM STRENGTHENING IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL DIG TROUGH TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK...FORCING
FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE HEART OF
THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AS NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVERHEAD. A LITTLE COOLER WEST...A LITTLE WARMER
EAST...WITH SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH.
FOR WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AS SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST BREEZES
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST HIGH COUNTRY...EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BROAD
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY.
FOR THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVERHEAD...AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TO A NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS PANHANDLE
AXIS. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING SPEED. LOW
HUMIDITIES AND SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY PRODUCE SOME FIRE CONCERNS
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARMING TREND WILL PUSH EASTERN TEMPERATURES
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS...WITH 5 TO 15 DEGREE
WARM DEPARTURES IN THE WEST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY DAY BREAK
FOR FRIDAY...COOL PUSH OVERSPREADING EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL KNOCK
A HALF DOZEN DEGREES OFF OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AS WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE IN THE WEST. CONTINUED
SUNNY AND DRY.
OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WARM WEEKEND ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES BROADLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY
NORMALS AS RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE STATE AND THEN SHEARS
RAPIDLY EASTWARD BY LATE SUNDAY. COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE STATE MONDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO WITHIN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE WORK WEEK KICKS OFF. WESTERLY BREEZES
DEVELOPING EACH WEEKEND AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EASTERN SLOPES AND NEARBY PLAINS...WITH EASTERN WINDS SHIFTING
EAST AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD. DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. THEREAFTER THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
FAIR TO VERY GOOD RH RECOVERIES MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWER DEW POINTS
WED AND THU WITH WINDS INCREASING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE E HALF
OF THE STATE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN AN HOUR OR TWO
OF VERY MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS WED IN A VERY SMALL AREA JUST W
AND N OF SANTA ROSA. VENT RATES IMPROVE FOR MOST OF THE EAST...
GENERALLY IN THE GOOD TO VERY GOOD RANGE...FAIR TO GOOD MOST OF THE
WEST. AFTN TEMPS WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM EVEN ACROSS
THE EAST WHERE THE BIG CHILL HAS RECENTLY DOMINATED.
VENT RATES IMPROVE TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER MOST OF THE REGION THU
AS W AND NW WINDS BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND SOME DISTANCE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE EAST WILL REACH 10 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE PLAINS. MUCH POORER RH
RECOVERIES WED NIGHT OVER THE LOWER RGV AND A GOOD PORTION OF EAST
NM. WITH WARM AFTN TEMPS AND INCREASING WINDS A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH
OF SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FROM JUST SOUTH
OF THE LAS VEGAS AREA THROUGH PORTIONS OF GUADALUPE AND DE BACA
COUNTIES. DUE TO THIS CRITICAL RISK AREA BEING RATHER NARROW AND
HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 3...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
ON FRIDAY...A WIND SHIFT IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS MAY COOL TEMPS A
BIT...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
NOT BE CRITICAL CONDITIONS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL COULD
BE CLOSE IN A FEW SPOTS OUT EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. VENT RATES WILL
REMAIN GOOD OR BETTER FROM THE CHUSKA MTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH OTHER AREAS SEEING AT LEAST SPOTTY FAIR
VALUES.
HIGHS REMAIN A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
EXPECTED NEXT MONDAY WILL COOL IT DOWN SOME...MAINLY EAST.
43
&&
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EAST COAST
STORM IS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVR THE AREA WILL PRODUCE IDEAL CONDS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH A CLEAR SKY...CALM WIND AND SNOW
COVER. LATE EVENING IR LOOP SHOWS EARLIER STRATOCU HAS CLEARED UP
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED BY FALLING TO -2F AT
KBFD AT 03Z.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO...FEEL CONFIDENT IN UNDERCUTTING MOS MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES. RAP OUTPUT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...INDICATING
LOWS MOSTLY BTWN 5-10 BLW ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR ZERO IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE CYCLE CONTINUES TO PLACE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. POOR MAN`S ENSEMBLE
OF CMC/NAM/GFS STILL FAVOR...PERHAPS AT THEIR PERIL...AN OFFSHORE
TRACK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER QPF THAN THEIR EUROPEAN
COUNTERPART. HOWEVER...A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z NAM...WHICH
INCORPORATED DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT LEVEL DATA FROM AIR FORCE RECON
OVR THE GULF OF MEX...CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN OFFSHORE SFC LOW
TRACK WITH THE HVY SNOW THREAT FROM HARRISBURG SEWRD. CHALLENGE
FOR OUR AREA IS HANDLING THE SHARP GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK AND RESOLVING THE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN LIQUID OUTPUT FROM THESE TWO CAMPS.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR LOUISIANA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF RESULTANT DEEP CONVECTION WILL
LARGELY DETERMINE HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE SFC LOW CAN TRACK.
LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST WITH THE SFC LOW
TRACK PLACING A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL PA INTO THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT SNOWFALL THURSDAY. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY OFF
ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT HAVE WEIGHTED PREVIOUS QPF AND SNOWFALL 20%
OF THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH JOGS OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THE
WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE...UPGRADED WATCHES
TO WARNINGS FOR LANCASTER YORK AND ADAMS...AND ISSUED WATCHES FOR
SCHUYLKILL LEBANON DAUPHIN PERRY CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON AND
BEDFORD COUNTIES. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH AND EAST OF STATE COLLEGE AND JOHNSTOWN...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT YET FOR THESE AREAS AND THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THESE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT.
SNOWFALL SHOULD LAST A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY OVER THE EAST
BEFORE TAPERING OFF...PERHAPS AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES INVOF THE SFC LOW TRACK...
WHICH MAY DRY SLOT THE PIEDMONT REGION. STILL MANY DETAILS TO WORK
OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT TREND IS FOR RAMPING UP SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY AND *PERHAPS* A MORE WESTERN SFC LOW TRACK AS PER ECMWF.
HAVE NOT COMPLETELY BOUGHT OFF ON ECMWF DETAILS...BUT ITS
CONSISTENCY AND POTENCY ARE UNDENIABLE AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE
WESTWARD TREND CONTINUE...WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND WATCHES NORTHWARD
EVEN FURTHER...ANOTHER ARGUMENT FOR HOLDING OFF ON ADVISORY
ISSUANCES ON THIS TIME TO ALLOW FLEXIBILITY TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THU
NIGHT. LEFT SOME SNOW IN FOR THU EVENING...MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN IS FAR EASTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS.
DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THE PERIOD OF FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST.
NW FLOW WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
ON SAT.
SOME HINTS OF WEAK SYSTEMS DROPPING SE SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS
WENT WITH CHC POPS.
LEFT MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
RIDGE LOCATION.
SOME VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO TUE. WEIGHTED FCST CLOSER TO WPC GRAPHICS. GFS LOOKS
A LITTLE FAST.
SOME HINTS OF A MILDER PATTERN AS ONE GETS OUT IN TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE
COLD...DRY ARCTIC HIGH IN CONTROL.
AN EAST COAST STORM WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH REDUCTIONS
LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT-THU...MVFR N TO IFR/LIFR SE IN SN.
FRI- SUN...MVFR TO IFR WITH SCT SHSN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
315 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD BETTER
CHANCES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY
AREAS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. BELIEVE THIS THREAT OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL
CARRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
SOUTH OF I-40 AND TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SHARP
BACK WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME PRONOUNCED BY
LATE MORNING...WITH THE MEMPHIS METRO LIKELY TO BE IN THIS
TRANSITION ZONE. THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTER IN
QPF...THAN THE GFS AND EURO...WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE DEFINED
BACK EDGE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A MORE HRRR/EURO/GFS
BLEND WITH QPF AMOUNTS TIMING...AND LOCATION OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. THESE MODELS INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION
FALLING IN THE 8 AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA. FORTUNATELY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...SO OVERALL WINDCHILLS WILL BE MILD
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO TODAY...AS THEY MAY HOVER
JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...HOLDING BACK
AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT CAN ACCUMULATE. BASED ON
HOPEFUL STORM REPORTS A FEW COUNTIES IN THE WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE
DROPPED TO AN ADVISORY.
THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AFTER 5PM...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES BY 9PM. PARTIALLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FALLEN SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SEND CLIPPER DISTURBANCES
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WILL SWING THROUGH ON
FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS
LIGHT...BUT IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES
WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...AS A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL GENERATE A SURFACE
LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...TRACKING IT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY. STRONGER WAA AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S WITH WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ON
MONDAY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
...WHICH MAY GENERATE A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER OUR
SOUTH AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE SWINGS MORE NEUTRAL.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR JONESBORO FOR FORECAST PERIOD.
MEMPHIS AND JACKSON...TENNESSEE...WILL BE VFR WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOR TUPELO...RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION AROUND
STATION...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN A HOUR OR
SO...PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW. THEN
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES WILL LOWER TO IFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING. TLSJR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 33 24 47 34 / 70 0 10 10
MKL 33 19 46 32 / 60 0 10 10
JBR 32 20 42 30 / 10 0 10 10
TUP 36 24 48 32 / 100 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-
BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON
TN-CARROLL-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-SHELBY-
TIPTON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE MID-STATE. TOOK LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THE REST OF TONIGHT`S FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. SNOW
MAY SNEAK INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE
12Z...HOWEVER POPS EXPECTED TO REALLY SPIKE SOUTH OF I-40 AFTER
12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO
FALL AS SNOW THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z TEMPERATURES BECOME AN ISSUE
AS THE MET AND MOS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
CSV AND BNA. THIS DOESN`T MEAN SNOW WON`T FALL...MAY JUST SLOW
DOWN ACCUMULATION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THEY HAVE
DRIER AIR AND BETTER CHANCES OF SUNSHINE...SO ADDED A LITTLE
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT ADJUSTING SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR TOMORROW. STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF THE EXTREME EASTERN
BOUNDARY OF OUR CWA TO SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND 4 INCHES. EVEN
THE NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS SHOWS
TOTALS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
..FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEGINNING TO INTERACT ALONG GULF COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING ALONG
GULF COAST. PRECIP HAS BROKEN OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS
AND ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO MISSISSIPPI AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
TONIGHT. HRRR HAS WINTRY PRECIP SKIRTING SOUTHERN BORDER AROUND
12Z WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE
MID STATE BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF AN INCH OR MORE
ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE
PLATEAU WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERWESTERN AREAS OF THE MID
STATE INCLUDING NASHVILLE WILL BE ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE SNOW
AREA BUT UP TO ONE HALF INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE. THINK
CLARKSVILLE COULD SEE A DUSTING WITH CROSSVILLE GETTING A COUPLE OF
INCHES AND POSSIBLY THREE BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TNZ011-032>034-065-066-077>080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TNZ061>064-075-093>095.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
353 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...
WARMER TODAY BY ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS...THIS
DESPITE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE TO NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE RETURNING
TO THE SRN PLAINS...BUT ALSO TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
AS MUCH OF THE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST
AREA IS REPLACED BY FLAT RIDGING. STILL...WILL FAVOR LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE FOR AFTN HIGHS. SFC WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND SW OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE GIVEN RECENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION.
OF NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM IS SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. HRRR SHOWING SOME SMALL PATCHES OF LOWER
VSBY BTWN 06Z AND 18Z. MESONET OBS SHOWING SOME SCATTERED DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO BUT WITH VEERING WINDS TO THE SW SHOULD SEE
SOME MODEST DRY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OF INTEREST...SO ATTM NOT
ANTICIPATING THE NEED TO INSERT A MENTION INTO THE FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM...
A QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY MILD PATTERN IS STILL A GUARANTEE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. EVEN THE HANDFUL OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL
SLIDE INTO THE REGION /COURTESY OF SHALLOW AND TROUGHS GRAZING THE
REGION/ SHOW NO ABILITY TO PUSH OUR HIGHS BLO CLIMO OR EVEN
GENERATE ANY LOW CLOUDS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE FIRST OF THESE
FRONTS ARRIVES FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND CONDITIONAL FROPA SAT NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A THIRD COME MONDAY. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS JUST
HOW MUCH TEMPS WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. FEEL MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN BEING TOO GENEROUS WITH
DEWPOINTS /PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND/...SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
QUITE A BIT WHICH RESULTS IN VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. ADD TO
THIS 15-20 MPH WINDS AND A FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE
SETTING FOOT IN THE RING. ONLY BY MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK DOES THIS
ZONAL FLOW REGIME BEGIN AMPLIFYING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IN THE FORM
OF L/W TROUGHING TO OUR W-NW WHICH HINTS AT INCREASINGLY WINDY
AND DUSTY CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS. SOME GOMEX MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD BY THIS TIME...THOUGH SHOULD BE SWEPT TO OUR
EAST UNLESS THE SWLY UPPER FLOW CAN TREND MORE MERIDIONAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 31 71 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 50 30 68 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 52 30 71 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 56 32 73 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 55 31 72 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 57 32 72 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 57 33 74 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 49 27 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 52 31 70 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 50 30 68 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1141 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Low clouds are having a hard time clearing out of our area late
tonight, and are hanging on much longer than guidance has
suggested. Will keep MVFR to intermittent IFR conditions going
through most of the overnight hours at all sites. These low clouds
are still expected to make slow progress eastward throughout the
night. And if they do, and skies clear, temperatures would quickly
cool, and could possible lead to fog, so have also continued to
carry a TEMPO for fog around sunrise. Low clouds and fog will
quickly clear out before 18Z. Light and variable winds overnight
will turn northwest at around 10 knots by midday Wednesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Per GOES satellite imagery, the back edge of the low cloud field
at 7 PM extends from near Lubbock to Lamesa to just west of Big
Lake, and south across western Crockett County. The clearing has
been advancing to the east, but has slowed down. The NAM and GFS
do not have a good handle on the westward extent of this low cloud
field. The latest RUC13 model shows a halt in the eastward
clearing this evening, with the low cloud cover persisting across
most if not all of our area until at least 3 AM, and then has
boundary layer moisture beginning to decrease across our western
counties after 3 AM. For now, going with a scenario of gradual
clearing from west to east tonight. If clearing does occur, some
light fog could develop. We have patchy freezing fog mentioned
after Midnight. A forecast update was made to bring current sky
condition and temperatures in line with recent trends, and to
delay the clearing tonight. Also made a few tweaks to overnight
lows, as the current temperature at Sweetwater was just a degree
above the forecast low. Will monitor and make any updates as
needed tonight.
19
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
The Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire at 6 PM
this evening as precipitation has ended across the area, and
visibilities are not rising across the area as well. However,
roads will remain very slick and hazardous throughout the night
tonight as some ice remained on the roads all day, and any melting
that did occur earlier today will likely refreeze overnight,
resulting in continued very hazardous travel conditions across the
area.
Also, see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
20
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Low end MVFR to high end IFR ceilings will continue to affect
area TAFS through the next 3 to 6 hours this evening. Clearing is
expected to take place later tonight, and the clearing line can be
seen moving east toward our TAF sites, but it is still several
hours away at this point. Later tonight, due to clear skies, and
cooling temperatures, there is a possibility of some light fog
developing, so have inserted a TEMPO for 3SM BR towards sunrise
tomorrow morning. By 9 AM, the area should be free of low ceilings
or visibility obstructions for the rest of the TAF period through
tomorrow evening. West winds of less than 10 knots will develop by
late morning.
20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)
Temperatures across most of the West Central Texas this afternoon
remain in the 20s. Extensive stratus continues, which has helped
to keep temperatures from rising very much. Areas of freezing
drizzle, freezing fog and some light sleet continue across much of
the region, and is forecast to steadily shift east this evening.
Skies will clear from west to east, with most areas becoming
partly cloudy to clear by midnight. In the meantime, surface high
pressure will settle across the area, with winds becoming light.
Light winds, clear skies, and dewpoint temperatures in the lower
20s will result in ideal radiational cooling conditions. A very
cold morning is forecast, with lows generally in the lower to mid
20s. I would not be surprised to see a few low lying locations or
river valleys drop into the upper teens. In addition, as
temperatures drop to near the dewpoint temperature, and winds
remain light, areas of freezing fog could develop. I have included
patchy freezing fog in the grids for now, and depending on trends
tonight, a freezing fog advisory may be needed if the fog becomes
more widespread than currently forecast. Residents are urged to
remain cautious overnight as any ice that has melted, will likely
refreeze as temperatures remain in the 20s.
Any fog that does form during the early morning hours will begin
to dissipate by 9 am, with temperatures rising above freezing by
late morning. This should allow for improving road conditions by
mid to late morning. The raw start to the morning, will lead to a
very nice afternoon, with highs generally in the mid 50s to lower
60s.
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through early next week)
Once we get past the current storm system, all quiet for the next
week. Main upper level system shifts into the Southeast US,
leaving the Southern Plains in northwest flow into the weekend.
This is a dry pattern in the cool season, and see nothing to
suggest anything different this time around. Surface high pressure
shifts east as well, so south and southwest flow and lots of sun
will lead to much warmer temperatures. Models suggest that we will
pushing the 80 degree mark for much of the area over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 21 54 34 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 22 60 33 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Junction 22 60 32 70 39 / 5 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
349 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
AT 3 AM...TWO AREAS OF SNOW WAS SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 900 TO
800 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN AREA OF SNOW WHICH
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE TWIN CITIES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 800 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE 12.00Z AND
12.06Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TWO AREAS WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TOGETHER. WITH THE NMM...ARW...AND RAP HAVING SIMILAR TIMING
TRENDED THE SNOW CHANCES TOWARD THEM. WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
LOOKING A BIT LOWER...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED TO AROUND AN
INCH.
FOR LATE TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION OCCURS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS.
SINCE THIS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS...RAISED THE
SNOW CHANCES UP SOME MORE. WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES...ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE NAM CONTINUES TO KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM... AND ECMWF HAS ITS
PRECIPITATION MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINKING THAT THE NAM IS
TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS SNOW AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE TOO FAR
SOUTH...SO WENT WITH A BLEND. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF
MEASURAB;E SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE UP TO AN
INCH.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 12.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
IOWA. THIS TRACK IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN IT WAS IN 11.00Z
AND 11.12Z MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE LOOKS MUCH
STRONGER THAN IT DID IN EITHER OF THESE RUNS...SO IT MAKES SENSE
THAT THERE WOULD BE A SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN ITS TRACK. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...TOOK OUT THE SNOW CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...
AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED NEAR
150 DEGREE WEST LONGITUDE. AS THIS OCCURS...OUR WINDS SHIFT A BIT
MORE NORTHERLY ALLOWING COLD AIR FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -8 TO -12C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
IN ADDITION WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE ON SATURDAY...
THE POLAR JET HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DECREASED THE SNOW CHANCES FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ABOUT 150 MB OF DENDRITIC GROWTH BETWEEN 700 AND 550 MB. THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO AROUND 18:1. WITH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RUNNING BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.15 INCHES...
EXPECT SNOW TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS AN OPEN WAVE
MOVING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION...THUS A WEAK LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF INITIALLY HAS A SIMILAR
UPPER WAVE STRUCTURE INITIALLY. HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
STRONG WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS RESULT IN STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS WEST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
CIGS HAVE DROPPED INTO MVFR AT KRST...AND WILL DO SO SHORTLY AT
KLSE. TIMING ON ASSOCIATED SNOW IS POSING SOME PROBLEMS. LOBE OF
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST MN/NORTHWEST WI. NOT MUCH OFF A SOUTHWEST
EXTENT. MORE GOING ON OVER SD...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IN THIS SETUP...MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH
WOULD STAY THERE...WITH THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING SNOW MOVING IN CLOSER
TO 12Z. RAP13/NAM12/HRRR FAVORING THIS SOLUTION. THAT SAID...SOME
SOLUTIONS ALSO FAVORING A DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE
AS THE SNOW MOVES IN...WHICH WOULD HAVE IMPACTS ON VSBY AND AMOUNTS.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL TREND THE TAFS THIS WAY...MAKING
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS. ACCUMULATIONS
MIGHT BE CLOSER TO 1 INCH.
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL EXIT BY 18Z...BUT THE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER
THROUGH WED EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL...BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE CLOUDS. GOING TO HOLD THE
MVFR CIGS FOR NOW...BUT SEE THIS AS AN AREA WHERE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
45-50 KT 2 KFT LOW LEVEL JET GOING TO HOLD INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL CONTINUE LLWS MENTION FOR AT KRST/KLSE. AT THE SFC...A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP IN THIS AFTERNOON...SWINGING WINDS TO THE WEST FOR
A WHILE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WORKS IN FOR THE EVENING...RESULTING
IN LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
QUICKLY APPROACHES...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FETCH. WINDS WILL
PICK UP QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT AT KRST...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
948 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
RADAR HAS RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT MID
MORNING...BUT IT IS IN THE FORM OF VIRGA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN LINE
WITH MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR PERSISTING A WHILE
LONGER. NEW 12Z NAM HAS SHOWN UP WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...BUT STILL SUPPORTING MAINTAINING CURRENT HEADLINES.
WILL WAIT TO EVALUATE THE 12Z GFS ONCE IT ARRIVES BEFORE MAKING
CHANGES TO THE PRECIP FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON MORNING CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INTO THE
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS. LOOKING AT THE 06Z RUNS AND LATEST HRRR IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST FOR HEAVY SNOW IS ON TRACK FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TOWARD THE ECMWF AND AS SUCH ARE
HOLDING IN THE SNOW A BIT LONGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE STORM
ALSO SHOWS SIGNS OF RUNNING A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A SECONDARY SURGE SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST GFS
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND SEE IF IT THE
GFS IS ON TO SOMETHING OR JUST AN OFF RUN QUIRK. THE HRRR WOULD PUT
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z...JUST A
BIT DELAYED FROM OUR TIMING GRAPHIC...BUT THERE ARE ALSO SOME DECENT
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN TENNESSEE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THIS IS PUSHING UP AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BENEATH A DOME OF VERY COLD
AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
NATION. ON SATELLITE...A BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS ALREADY TAKEN SHAPE
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THIS HAS SPREAD SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THE THIN CLOUD COVER IN
MOST PLACES IS NOT HINDERING THE DROP OFF IN TEMPS THIS NIGHT...
PARTICULARLY NORTH WHERE READINGS ARE APPROACHING THE SINGLE
DIGITS. TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS ARE A BIT MILDER WITH VALUES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. RIGHT ALONG THE TRI-BORDER
AREA WITH TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S.
DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN AIR TEMPERATURE IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RUNNING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR SOUTH. THIS INDICATES THAT IT WILL TAKE A BIT
OF TIME TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND FOR PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE PRETTY MUCH LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TO START THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEY START TO VARY LATER TODAY WITH THE
ALL TOO CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH
THIS AS ITS LOW REMAINS OPEN. THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS
CONTINUITY AS THE STRONGEST MODEL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. GIVEN THE GOOD CONTINUITY...AND
MODEL TRENDS...HAVE USED A BLEND THAT FAVORS THE LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME DETAILS FROM THE NAM12...ENHANCED AND
TRANSLATED NORTHWESTWARD. THE DEVELOPING LOW SWINGS THROUGH WITH
PLENTY OF ENERGY AT MID LEVELS...SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER EAST
KENTUCKY...AND A DEPARTING DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE AT 300MB...LATE THIS
EVENING. THESE ALL WILL WORK TO ENHANCE THIS WAVE AND DRIVE THE
EVOLVING WINTER STORM. THE LOW AND TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH THE MODELS HOLDING TO THEIR DIFFERENCES. ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY THIS RESULTS IN A RELAXING OF THE LOW HEIGHTS AND A
TEMPORARY DEAMPLIFICATION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE MAJOR WINTER STORM LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
SWEEP A COMMA HEAD OF PCPN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA STARTING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAXIMIZING ITS EXTENT...BOTH AERIALLY TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW FALL RATES...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 5 AM. EXPECT THE WESTERN BOUNDARY TO REACH TOWARD THE BLUEGRASS
REGION...BUT THE BULK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PCPN AS ALL SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
THAT DOES SEE PCPN. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
CUTTING INTO SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS AREA AND LIKELY KEEPING THEM IN
ADVISORY CATEGORY SNOWS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT
GRADIENT TO THE SNOW TOTALS WITH THE BEST MODEL BLEND SOLUTION
KEEPING ANYTHING MORE THAN 4 INCHES IN THE FAR EAST ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. THE HIGHER RIDGES NEAR THE BORDER COULD ACTUALLY
PICK UP SIX OR MORE INCHES BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TO THE IMMEDIATE
NORTHWEST THE TOTALS WILL FALL OFF QUICK WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
EXPECTED...TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY THE SECOND TIER OF
COUNTIES AWAY FROM VA. THE WSWS HAVE BEEN SET UP WITH THIS IN
MIND...BUT THERE IS THE CAVEAT THAT IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING MOST
CORRECT THE AMOUNTS WOULD END UP MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BY ABOUT 20 OR
40 MILES...WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO A FOOT IN THE HIGHEST PARTS OF
HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF TO LIGHT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING
FOR EVEN SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
NEW SNOW AND LIMITED CAA IN THE STORM/S WAKE WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY.
USED A MODIFIED COOLER VERSION OF THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ACCOUNTING FOR THE WETBULBING WITH THE SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...THE BCCONSSHORT WAS USED FOR TD AND WINDS
BEFORE A HAND OFF TO THE BCCONSALL. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST
SIMILAR TO THE HIGHER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE BACK EDGE OF THE POTENT SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE UPPER AIR...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEMS AND SURE ENOUGH...THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE MIXED BAG OF RAIN AND SNOW
THAT WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY EVENING...THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE MODELS HOLD
TOGETHER...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LOW END ADVISORY. WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STAYING IN PLACE ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THE MODELS AND THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FAVOR A FASTER SYSTEM WITH
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF PREFERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS AN EFFORT
TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN...HOWEVER WANTED TO SLOW IT DOWN EVEN
MORE...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO SHOW TOO LARGE A DIFFERENCE WITH THE
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THERE IS A GRADUAL WARMING SO THE SUBSEQUENT
CLIPPERS WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOW EXCEPT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH SNOW
FROM THE LAST TWO CLIPPERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH
MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR A TIME INTO THE NIGHT IN
MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE BLUEGRASS AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR. THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND AT SJS WHERE THE SNOW
WILL BE A TAD MORE SUBSTANTIAL. IFR OR EVEN SOME LIFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE THERE SHOULD THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WORK FAR ENOUGH
WEST...HAVE ADDED A BEEFIER TEMPO FOR THIS WITH THIS UPDATE. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ084>086-
110-113-115>117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
715 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INTO THE
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS. LOOKING AT THE 06Z RUNS AND LATEST HRRR IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST FOR HEAVY SNOW IS ON TRACK FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TOWARD THE ECMWF AND AS SUCH ARE
HOLDING IN THE SNOW A BIT LONGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE STORM
ALSO SHOWS SIGNS OF RUNNING A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A SECONDARY SURGE SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST GFS
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND SEE IF IT THE
GFS IS ON TO SOMETHING OR JUST AN OFF RUN QUIRK. THE HRRR WOULD PUT
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z...JUST A
BIT DELAYED FROM OUR TIMING GRAPHIC...BUT THERE ARE ALSO SOME DECENT
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN TENNESSEE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THIS IS PUSHING UP AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BENEATH A DOME OF VERY COLD
AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
NATION. ON SATELLITE...A BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS ALREADY TAKEN SHAPE
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THIS HAS SPREAD SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THE THIN CLOUD COVER IN
MOST PLACES IS NOT HINDERING THE DROP OFF IN TEMPS THIS NIGHT...
PARTICULARLY NORTH WHERE READINGS ARE APPROACHING THE SINGLE
DIGITS. TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS ARE A BIT MILDER WITH VALUES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. RIGHT ALONG THE TRI-BORDER
AREA WITH TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S.
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN AIR TEMPERATURE IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RUNNING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR SOUTH. THIS INDICATES THAT IT WILL TAKE A BIT
OF TIME TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND FOR PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE PRETTY MUCH LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TO START THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEY START TO VARY LATER TODAY WITH THE
ALL TOO CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH
THIS AS ITS LOW REMAINS OPEN. THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS
CONTINUITY AS THE STRONGEST MODEL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. GIVEN THE GOOD CONTINUITY...AND
MODEL TRENDS...HAVE USED A BLEND THAT FAVORS THE LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME DETAILS FROM THE NAM12...ENHANCED AND
TRANSLATED NORTHWESTWARD. THE DEVELOPING LOW SWINGS THROUGH WITH
PLENTY OF ENERGY AT MID LEVELS...SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER EAST
KENTUCKY...AND A DEPARTING DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE AT 300MB...LATE THIS
EVENING. THESE ALL WILL WORK TO ENHANCE THIS WAVE AND DRIVE THE
EVOLVING WINTER STORM. THE LOW AND TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH THE MODELS HOLDING TO THEIR DIFFERENCES. ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY THIS RESULTS IN A RELAXING OF THE LOW HEIGHTS AND A
TEMPORARY DEAMPLIFICATION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE MAJOR WINTER STORM LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
SWEEP A COMMA HEAD OF PCPN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA STARTING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAXIMIZING ITS EXTENT...BOTH AERIALLY TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW FALL RATES...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 5 AM. EXPECT THE WESTERN BOUNDARY TO REACH TOWARD THE BLUEGRASS
REGION...BUT THE BULK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PCPN AS ALL SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
THAT DOES SEE PCPN. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
CUTTING INTO SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS AREA AND LIKELY KEEPING THEM IN
ADVISORY CATEGORY SNOWS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT
GRADIENT TO THE SNOW TOTALS WITH THE BEST MODEL BLEND SOLUTION
KEEPING ANYTHING MORE THAN 4 INCHES IN THE FAR EAST ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. THE HIGHER RIDGES NEAR THE BORDER COULD ACTUALLY
PICK UP SIX OR MORE INCHES BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TO THE IMMEDIATE
NORTHWEST THE TOTALS WILL FALL OFF QUICK WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
EXPECTED...TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY THE SECOND TIER OF
COUNTIES AWAY FROM VA. THE WSWS HAVE BEEN SET UP WITH THIS IN
MIND...BUT THERE IS THE CAVEAT THAT IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING MOST
CORRECT THE AMOUNTS WOULD END UP MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BY ABOUT 20 OR
40 MILES...WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO A FOOT IN THE HIGHEST PARTS OF
HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF TO LIGHT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING
FOR EVEN SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
NEW SNOW AND LIMITED CAA IN THE STORM/S WAKE WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY.
USED A MODIFIED COOLER VERSION OF THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ACCOUNTING FOR THE WETBULBING WITH THE SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...THE BCCONSSHORT WAS USED FOR TD AND WINDS
BEFORE A HAND OFF TO THE BCCONSALL. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST
SIMILAR TO THE HIGHER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE BACK EDGE OF THE POTENT SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE UPPER AIR...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEMS AND SURE ENOUGH...THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE MIXED BAG OF RAIN AND SNOW
THAT WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY EVENING...THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE MODELS HOLD
TOGETHER...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LOW END ADVISORY. WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STAYING IN PLACE ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THE MODELS AND THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FAVOR A FASTER SYSTEM WITH
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF PREFERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS AN EFFORT
TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN...HOWEVER WANTED TO SLOW IT DOWN EVEN
MORE...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO SHOW TOO LARGE A DIFFERENCE WITH THE
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THERE IS A GRADUAL WARMING SO THE SUBSEQUENT
CLIPPERS WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOW EXCEPT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH SNOW
FROM THE LAST TWO CLIPPERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH
MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR A TIME INTO THE NIGHT IN
MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE BLUEGRASS AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR. THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND AT SJS WHERE THE SNOW
WILL BE A TAD MORE SUBSTANTIAL. IFR OR EVEN SOME LIFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE THERE SHOULD THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WORK FAR ENOUGH
WEST...HAVE ADDED A BEEFIER TEMPO FOR THIS WITH THIS UPDATE. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
KYZ087-088-118-120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
KYZ084>086-110-113-115>117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
829 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK UP THE EAST
COAST AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND PASS NEAR CAPE COD ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
830AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TREND FROM LATEST OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES. A COLD START THIS MORNING MAY BE SLOW TO WARM UP AT
FIRST. BUT EVENTUALLY 20S WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
630AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH VERY COLD
CONDITIONS. A FRESH SNOWPACK...THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TO WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND DEW POINTS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST FOR IMPROVED SKY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS FELL TO 20 BELOW OVER
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH OUR VERY DRY AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW COVER.
EXPECT READING TO REBOUND QUICKLY TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SLOWLY EASING OFF THE COASTLINE.
RELIED HEAVILY ON THE NAM12 FOR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS STRENGTHENING STORM HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE TRACK CONTINUES
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. INITIALLY...THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTER SOME
INITIALLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE COLUMN EARLY.
THIS WESTWARD SHIFT MAY ALLOW A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR TO
REACH THE COASTLINE...BRINGING SLEET AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF RAIN
TO THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO EASE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A PERIOD THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE EURO/GFS FOR QPF.
RAN THE WIND EFFECTS TOOL TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS. THE SNOWFALL MAX WILL MOST LIKELY END UP OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COMPLEX COASTAL LOW WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A FIRST
SHOT OF HEAVY WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING. AS THE DEEPENING CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...
ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CHANGEOVER THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO A MIX OF SLEET AT TIMES OVER COASTAL AND
SOME ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AND WILL PUT A LIMIT ON SNOWFALL
TOTALS. OVERALL PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENT. ALL
MODELS AGREE ON OVER 1.0+ OF QPF WITH SOME APPROACHING CLOSER TO
2.0 INCHES OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST QPF IS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT AND
BEST ENHANCEMENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUT DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE
STAYING ALL SNOW AND HIGHER RATIOS HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW SYSTEM WILL
PLAY OUT AND CONSIDERING ITS LATE 3RD AND INTO 4TH PERIODS OF OUR
FORECAST WE HAVE OPTED KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THRU ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND MAY
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AND LIFR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN HEAVY SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME MIX OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
THEN BECOMING VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR ON
SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. VFR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
TO A GALE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS...AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE THE LOW PASSES THRU THE
GULF OF MAINE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW EXITS QUICKLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ018-019-023-024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-025>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ003>010-013-014.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
636 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK UP THE EAST
COAST AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND PASS NEAR CAPE COD ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH VERY COLD
CONDITIONS. A FRESH SNOWPACK...THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TO WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND DEW POINTS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST FOR IMPROVED SKY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREV DISC...
VERY QUIET IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS FELL TO 20 BELOW OVER
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH OUR VERY DRY AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW COVER.
EXPECT READING TO REBOUND QUICKLY TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SLOWLY EASING OFF THE COASTLINE.
RELIED HEAVILY ON THE NAM12 FOR WINDS AND TEMPS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS STRENGTHENING STORM HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE TRACK CONTINUES
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. INITIALLY...THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTER SOME
INITIALLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE COLUMN EARLY.
THIS WESTWARD SHIFT MAY ALLOW A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR TO
REACH THE COASTLINE...BRINGING SLEET AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF RAIN
TO THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE
PRECIP TO EASE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE EURO/GFS FOR QPF.
RAN THE WIND EFFECTS TOOL TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS. THE SNOWFALL MAX WILL MOST LIKELY END UP OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COMPLEX COASTAL LOW WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FCST THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MRNG. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A FIRST SHOT OF HEAVY
WAA SNWOWFALL INTO THE REGION THU EVENG. AS THE DEEPENING CENTER
OF LOW PRES APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI...ENOUGH WAA IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CHANGEOVER
THE PTYPE TO A MIX OF SLEET AT TIMES OVER COASTAL AND SOME
ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AND WILL PUT A LIMIT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS.
OVERALL PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENT. ALL MODELS AGREE
ON OVER 1.0+ OF QPF WITH SOME APPROACHING CLOSER TO 2.0 INCHES OF
QPF. THE HVIEST QPF IS ALG THE COASTAL FNT AND BEST ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. BUT DUE TO ORGRAPHIC
LIFT AND PTYPE STAYING ALL SNOW AND HIGHER RATIOS HIGHER ACCUMS
ARE PSBL IN THE MTNS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW SYSTEM WILL
PLAY OUT AND CONSIDERING ITS LATE 3RD AND INTO 4TH PDS OF OUR FCST
WE HAVE OPTED KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY
FRI AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVES THRU ON SAT WITH
SOME SCT SNW SHWRS EXPECTED WITH SOME LGT ACCUMS PSBL IN THE MTNS.
A SFC/UPR RDG SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR SUN AND MON WITH TEMPS
REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUES AND MAY BRING
WARMER TEMPS AND A MIXED BAG OF PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AND LIFR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN HEAVY SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME MIX OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...LIFR CONDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THEN BECOMING
VFR BY FRI AFTN. POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR ON SATURDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
TO A GALE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS...AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS PSBL THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS THE THE LOW PASSES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT AND PSBLY HIGHER BY FRI MRNG. AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW EXITS QUICKLY FRI AFTN WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ018-019-023-024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-025>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ003>010-013-014.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM IS THE LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEN LATER TONIGHT THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MORE
WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD EXIT THE CWA
AROUND 15Z. THIS TIMING MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND THE
06Z HOPWRF...ALONG WITH THE 06Z NAMWRF. THIS WILL LEAVE AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SOME WIND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST CWA FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES MOVE
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN DIFFICULT WITH
RATHER STRONG CAA PATTERN THIS MORNING. SHOULD DROP OFF TO AROUND
ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE MAKING SOME MEAGER
RECOVERY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE SNOW EXIT WITH CLOUDS
FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS MOST AREAS.
LATER TONIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE 00Z-06Z OUT
WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z THU.
THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
AFTER 03Z AS MODELS DO INDICATE RATHER QUICK MOISTENING BECAUSE OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SPREADS RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA AFTER 06Z AND WE SHOULD SEE DECENT LIGHT SNOW AGAIN...WITH AN
INCH OR SO THROUGH 12Z THU. WINDS WILL BECOME A FACTOR IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS. INSERTED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DURING THE NIGHT
OVER THE WESTERN AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE EVENING AGAIN...AND RISE THROUGH THE 20S OVER THE WEST THROUGH
12Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CIRCA 995MB STRADDLING THE INTERSECTION OF LK
SUPERIOR/MN/WI ON THURSDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY SEE WRAP-AROUND
SNOW UNTIL AROUND 18Z GENERALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE ENDING OVER WEST CENTRAL MN....NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST...SO HAVE REMOVED SNOW CHANCES
FROM ALL BUT FAR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
FRIDAY TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID TEENS...BUT
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WAVE
WILL YIELD SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. IN
FACT...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE
OF A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THIS WAVE ON SATURDAY...SO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTAT 94.
TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS/20S.
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
IFR CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH THE SNOW THIS MORNING. WILL
LIKELY AFFECT THE WISCONSIN SITES FOR A FEW HOURS YET THIS
MORNING. FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS IF MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORITON OF THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST HIGHER LEVEL
HUMIDITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH KMSP WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE EDGE. SREF PROBS FOR MVFR CIGS REMAIN HIGH TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH AS WELL..AND WHATEVER IS LEFTOVER WILL LIKELY
BY LIFTED NORTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP TO THE WEST THROUGH 14Z OR SO...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN BY EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WEST
AROUND 03Z WITH -SN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST CWA
OVERNIGHT. KMSP WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW....WITH DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z...THEN INTO
WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT AS IT SAGES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT...LESS THAN 7
KTS. AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE...GUSTY TO THE WEST DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
KMSP...CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE 15-2000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON TOTAL CLEARING OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS...WITH MODELS INDICATING KMSP WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF
THE MVFR CIGS. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT DID
GO VFR AROUND 18Z. COULD SEE THESE MVFR CIGS LIFT BACK NORTH INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z. SHOULD SEE THIS
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 15Z THU. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AND WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN THIS EVENING AND INCREASE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. N WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI...VFR. N WIND AROUND 5 KT BCMG W.
FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS PSBL LATE. CHC -SN. S WIND 10-15 KT.
SAT...MVFR CONDS PSBL. CHC -SN. S WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING N.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM IS THE LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEN LATER TONIGHT THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MORE
WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD EXIT THE CWA
AROUND 15Z. THIS TIMING MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND THE
06Z HOPWRF...ALONG WITH THE 06Z NAMWRF. THIS WILL LEAVE AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SOME WIND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST CWA FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES MOVE
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN DIFFICULT WITH
RATHER STRONG CAA PATTERN THIS MORNING. SHOULD DROP OFF TO AROUND
ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE MAKING SOME MEAGER
RECOVERY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE SNOW EXIT WITH CLOUDS
FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS MOST AREAS.
LATER TONIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE 00Z-06Z OUT
WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z THU.
THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
AFTER 03Z AS MODELS DO INDICATE RATHER QUICK MOISTENING BECAUSE OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SPREADS RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA AFTER 06Z AND WE SHOULD SEE DECENT LIGHT SNOW AGAIN...WITH AN
INCH OR SO THROUGH 12Z THU. WINDS WILL BECOME A FACTOR IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS. INSERTED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DURING THE NIGHT
OVER THE WESTERN AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE EVENING AGAIN...AND RISE THROUGH THE 20S OVER THE WEST THROUGH
12Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CIRCA 995MB STRADDLING THE INTERSECTION OF LK
SUPERIOR/MN/WI ON THURSDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY SEE WRAP-AROUND
SNOW UNTIL AROUND 18Z GENERALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE ENDING OVER WEST CENTRAL MN....NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST...SO HAVE REMOVED SNOW CHANCES
FROM ALL BUT FAR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
FRIDAY TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID TEENS...BUT
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WAVE
WILL YIELD SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. IN
FACT...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE
OF A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THIS WAVE ON SATURDAY...SO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTAT 94.
TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS/20S.
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
CEILINGS HAVE QUITE THE VARIETY AT 06Z INITIALIZATION AS ONE BATCH
OF -SN HAS PUSHED THRU MN ON INTO WRN WI...WITH SOME OF THE OB
SITES REPORTING VSBY AS LOW AS 1SM. VSBYS HAVE COME UP...ALONG
WITH CEILINGS...BUT SHORT TERM MODELS /HOPWRF...RAP...HRRR/
GENERALLY INDICATE ANOTHER SWATH OF -SN...MAINLY S OF KAXN-KSTC
AND W OF KRWF...TO IMPACT ERN MN AND WRN WI IN THE 08Z-13Z
TIMEFRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HOW
THIS WOULD IMPACT AIRPORT ACTIVITY AROUND SUNRISE. CONDS THEN GO
TO VFR FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE THIS MRNG AND LOOK TO REMAIN AS VFR
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES LATE WED EVE SO
LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY -SN CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE SHOWN
THE TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW. DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO
TIME...GENERALLY VEERING FROM S-SW TO W BY DAYBREAK THEN NW BY
LATE MRNG BEFORE BACKING TO S AGAIN WED EVE.
KMSP...CIGS HAVE RISEN TO VFR BUT AM NOT EXPECTING THAT TO LAST
GIVEN MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM SO WILL LOOK FOR A COUPLE HRS OF VFR
BEFORE CIGS FALL TO MVFR THRU THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS. IN
ADDITION...A MORE SOLID ROUND OF -SN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MORNING PUSH BUT UNCERTAINTY IN ITS DURATION...HENCE THE TEMPO
GROUP ARND THE 11Z HOUR. CONDS THEN IMPROVE STEADILY BY LATE MRNG
AND VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MVFR CIGS RETURN TNGT
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL CHCS OF -SN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS PSBL EARLY. NW WIND 10-15 KT.
THU NIGHT...VFR. N WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI...VFR. N WIND AROUND 5 KT BCMG W.
FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS PSBL LATE. CHC -SN. S WIND 10-15 KT.
SAT...MVFR CONDS PSBL. CHC -SN. S WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING N.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
304 AM MST WED FEB 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL START TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE IN SOME AREAS OF THE STATE...NAMELY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE A WEAK FRONT COOLS READINGS
DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE PATTERN THAT HAS
FORCED OLD MAN WINTER TO TAKE A VACATION AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO.
WHILE HE WREAKS HAVOC ON THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS LEADING
TO A PRONOUNCED WARM-UP. SCATTERED BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS WILL BE
OBSERVED PERIODICALLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD POSE NO MAJOR IMPACT TO
THE WARMING. HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST HIGHS WITH WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE BY A FEW DEGREES IN SOME EASTERN ZONES.
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS THEY COULD ON A CALM/CLEAR NIGHT. THIS
WILL ONLY ACT TO HASTEN THE WARM-UP DURING THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY SURMOUNT THE DIURNAL RISE OF TODAY.
THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DECAMETERS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WITH H7 TEMPERATURES SKYROCKETING...ESPECIALLY
TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE DOWNSLOPING WINDS
AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL TAKE EFFECT. SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY
BE IN JEOPARDY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER.
THE WINDS AT H7 OR RIDGE TOP LEVEL STAY QUITE STRONG THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LESSEN SOME INTO THE DAYTIME
FRIDAY. ALSO...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...SETTING TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD ECLIPSE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID FEBRUARY.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THIS WILL MODERATE SPEEDS
ALOFT WITH ANOTHER LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE
SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL ONLY INTENSIFY INTO SUNDAY
WHILE GAINING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN STRONGER WESTERLIES
THROUGH THE H7-H5 LAYER. EVIDENCE OF SOME SCANT HIGH LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALSO APPROACHES NM LATE SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HAVE KEPT
FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE 00Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF DOES CARVE THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE OUT IN A MORE AGGRESSIVE
MANNER...POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY NORTHERN TIER
PRECIPITATION. WILL NOT SNATCH THE DANGLING CARROT JUST YET.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS TO
BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEW POINTS HAVE CRATERED ON AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS
AGO CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH LESSER DROPS CLOSER TO THE TX BORDER IN
THE PLAINS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND
COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST LOWER RH VALUES MAY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CLINES
CORNERS TO LAS VEGAS AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW HAINES FORECAST OVERALL.
VENT RATES TO BE GOOD OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH A MIX
OF FAIR TO GOOD WEST.
WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
AND INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND SOME NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. POOR RH RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HRS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER A WIDER
AREA...MOST OF GUADALUPE AND DE BACA COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A WATCH FOR ZONE 108 ALTHOUGH FORECAST
HAINES STILL LOW. EASTERN PARTS OF ZONE 109 COULD ALSO SEE A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS BUT NOT INCLUDING THEM IN THE WATCH
AT THIS TIME. VENT RATES GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS THURSDAY.
VENT RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH REMAIN MOSTLY GOOD. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT BY SO MUCH...WITH A 5 TO 15
DEGREE COOL DOWN IN THE EAST DUE TO A SURFACE FRONT. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR FROM THE LOWER RGV INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGHS REMAIN A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD LEAD
TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST...WHERE FORECAST HAINES IS HIGH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FRONT MONDAY...WHICH COOLS HIGHS DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
BUT IT LOOKS DRY. MODELS INDICATE A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE THE
FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS AS DRY AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ALOFT...BLANKETS OF CIRRUS WILL CROSS. AN EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EARLY WED MORNING IN THE LOWER PECOS RIVER
VALLEY AROUND KROW...WHERE THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE NAILING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS. THE MODEL IS
ACTUALLY CALLING FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING CIRRUS
SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH AROUND KROW TO PREVENT THE
VSBY FM DROPPING MUCH BELOW 1 MILE. WINDS IN THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE N OR NW AROUND
12-14Z...WHEN THE RESULTANT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE FOG TO
DIMINISH. MUCH DRIER AIR THAT ARRIVES WED AND PERSISTENT NW FLOW
WILL PREVENT FOG FROM RETURNING TO KROW THURS NIGHT.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 53 28 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 17 52 21 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 50 19 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 56 23 64 26 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 53 25 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 56 26 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 57 26 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 66 32 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 45 16 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 30 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 51 30 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 17 51 22 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 15 44 19 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 16 51 21 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 49 19 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 51 27 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 56 27 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 29 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 29 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 35 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 59 38 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 32 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 33 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 33 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 35 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 64 36 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 29 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 55 31 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 28 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 33 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 34 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 35 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 55 30 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 56 26 66 29 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 56 24 67 30 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 57 27 67 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 33 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 58 34 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 57 32 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 59 37 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 39 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 33 76 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 57 34 73 38 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 58 33 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 37 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 65 34 80 39 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 62 37 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 60 37 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ108.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1045 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. SEVERE DAMAGE FROM HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE WORST OF IT LIKELY TO OCCUR
ACROSS OUR MORE INLAND COMMUNITIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW FREEZING LONGEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL TURN UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
EVENING AND INTENSIFY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...THE 2ND PART OF THIS WINTER STORM IS JUST
BEGINNING ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A
MAJOR...IF NOT UNPRECEDENTED...ICING EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS.
NATIONAL SCALE WV AND IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A TEXTBOOK BAROCLINIC LEAF
SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING FROM A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. THIS CYCLOGENESIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
POTENT VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. AS THIS
IMPULSE DROPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND CLOSES OFF TONIGHT...SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE...IN A
MILLER-B TYPE SETUP. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
WEDGING DOWN THE COAST WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR DUE TO AGEOSTROPHIC
DRAINAGE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE. CONFLUENCE ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF THE
VORTICITY IMPULSE IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY...BUT WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO RETREAT SLOWLY.
THIS MORNING`S 12Z SOUNDING FROM KMHX SUGGESTS THE COLD DOME IS ONLY
ABOUT 2000 FT DEEP...BUT QUITE INTENSE. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
EXTREMELY DRY LAYER IS NOTED AT 925MB WITH A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF
30C! AFTER COLLABORATION WITH FORECASTERS AT MHX...IT IS BELIEVED
THAT DRY LAYER IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT A SIGNAL FOR CONCERN
NONETHELESS DUE TO POTENTIAL DRY AIR ADVECTION TODAY...EVEN AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST AS NOTED ABOVE. THIS IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE DEWPOINT TEMPS UPSTREAM (ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE NC) ARE ONLY
IN THE MID TEENS...SO AS THIS DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
ILM CWA...IT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AS
PRECIP STREAMS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL HELP OFFSET THE WARMING DUE TO
LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF FREEZING AT THE SURFACE (DUE TO FREEZING RAIN
ACCRETION) AND THUS ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AND EFFICIENT
ACCRETION (RATES) THROUGH THE EVENT.
SO ONE THING IS CERTAIN...A MAJOR ICING EVENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. THAT DOES NOT MAKE FOR AN EASY FORECAST HOWEVER. AS
PRECIP CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY...IT WILL WARM ALOFT
SUCH THAT PRECIP WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO ALL
FREEZING RAIN. ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES VERY INTENSE THIS AFTN AND
EVE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 45-55KTS OF WIND ADVECTING ACROSS ABOUT 70MB
OF SLOPE ALONG THE 290K THETA-SURFACE JUST WITHIN THE CWA THIS
EVE...WITH IMPRESSIVE UVV`S OCCURRING AS THE LLJ NOSES INTO THE
REGION. THIS IS A SIGNAL FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES...LIKELY MUCH OF WHICH WILL FALL INTO A SUBFREEZING SURFACE
LAYER. IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT AREAS WEST OF ABOUT A
KINGSTREE...TO WHITEVILLE...TO ELIZABETHTOWN WILL SEE AN HISTORIC
ICING EVENT TODAY. WHILE HEAVY RAIN RATES TYPICALLY DO NOT ACCRETE
EFFICIENTLY (QPF TO ICE IS USUALLY A LOW PERCENTAGE)...HEAVY RATES
INTO TEMPS IN THE MID 20S INLAND COULD LEAD TO INCREDIBLE ACCRETION
RATES OF 0.04 - 0.08 INCHES PER HOUR...IF NOT SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THIS
IS WHY FORECAST ICE TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1.00 INCHES IS EXPECTED WEST OF
THE LINE MENTIONED.
THE TRICKIER PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE. GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT THAT WARM AIR WILL NOSE NW
TODAY...TURNING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO RAIN THIS AFTN. NOTE
THAT LAPS ANALYSIS SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPS ARE COLDER THAN ANY
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE (AS OF THIS WRITING 12Z NAM AND 14Z RUC)...WHICH
SUGGESTS THE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK TO CHANGEOVER FROM EAST TO
WEST. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY N/NE WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION. IF WINDS CAN REMAIN MORE N THAN NE...A LONGER
DURATION ICING EVENT WILL UNFOLD...AND ILM OBS HAVE FLUCTUATED
020-030 ALL MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...IF SURFACE LOW TRACK ENDS UP
JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...MORE COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST ICE ACCRETIONS ACROSS THE EAST (EXTREME COASTAL ZONES
EXCLUDED) TO 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES.
SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...WHEW...EXPECT A FULL DAY OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH FREEZING RAIN SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND MOVING WEST THEREAFTER.
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE EXPANDED TO THIS EVE AT THE
COAST...AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING INLAND. FREEZING RAIN OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES DUE
TO TREES DOWN AND WIRES DOWN. ROADS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS...IF NOT
IMPASSABLE...AND TRAVEL SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN ONLY IF ABSOLUTELY
NECESSARY. WHILE PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN WILL EASE EFFECTS SOMEWHAT
AT THE COAST...EVEN THERE IMPACTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. INLAND...AN
HISTORIC EVENT IS LIKELY UNFOLDING WHICH CAN REALLY ONLY BE COMPARED
TO JANUARY 2004 LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...ONE MUST LOOK TO OTHER PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY FOR COMPARABLE FREEZING RAIN ACCRETIONS.
TEMPS WILL WARM ONLY VERY SLOWLY TODAY...RISING TO THE UPPER 30S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (HIGH TEMPS WILL BE REACHED TONIGHT)...AND
LOW 30S INLAND. THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY THURS LIFTING FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS WELL INLAND WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING TO START THE
DAY AND THEREFORE ANY LINGERING PCP MAY COME IN THE WAY OF FREEZING
RAIN. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURS AFTN
AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES
ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLD AND DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ALL PCP TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NW FLOW OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL DEVELOP AS THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST LATE THURS AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON THURS
INTO EARLY FRI.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE
HIGH WILL RIDGE UP FROM THE SOUTH THURS NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH
NW WINDS BUT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING CLOSER TO
60. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRI SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
LATEST GFS SHOWING A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO PRODUCE GREATER CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP...MAINLY FRI NIGHT.
AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THE
DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL SCOUR OUT ALL CLOUDS AND PCP
LEADING TO A DRIER AND COOLER FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUN THAN CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE UP
FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PRODUCE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FORM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS AHEAD OF
FRONT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
CLOUDS MAINLY AFFECTING THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN ON TUES AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL START OUT
COOLER BUT WILL END UP IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FZRA AND IP...
IS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE VFR BUT MVFR IS
DEVELOPING FROM S-N AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES. MVFR WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH IFR LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. ONCE IFR DEVELOPS IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM. FZRA/IP SHOULD
BECOME ALL RAIN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. AT KFLO FZRA/IP SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN MID-LATE AFTERNOON
WHILE FZRA MAY CONTINUE AT KLBT UNTIL THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR AND
NAM MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND INLAND THIS EVENING. DESPITE
THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR...IF PRECIPITATION DECREASES AS SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK UP THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINTRY PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THUR EVENING. FRI EVENING A
CHANCE OF TEMPO SNOW SHOWERS/IFR. VFR SAT AND SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE UP
THE EAST COAST...CREATING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED DOWN THE COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEARS... THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATER THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS
UP TO 7 TO 11 FT WITH 12 FT SEAS AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK AROUND AND
LIGHTEN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 KTS
THROUGH LATE THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES UP FROM THE GULF COAST.
SEAS UP AROUND 6 TO 8 FT EARLY THURS WILL DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WATERS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT AFTN
INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SAT
NIGHT...RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE N WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS GRADIENT
RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFF SHORE LATE MON INTO TUES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT SAT MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
3 FT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND REMAINING BENIGN THROUGH MON AFTN.
THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH MON NIGHT INTO TUES WILL PUSH SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 5 FT AGAIN.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053-055.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106>110.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
649 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. SEVERE DAMAGE FROM HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE WORST OF IT LIKELY TO OCCUR
ACROSS OUR MORE INLAND COMMUNITIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW FREEZING LONGEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL TURN UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
EVENING AND INTENSIFY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...A LARGE SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THERE WERE
REPORTS OF SLEET MIXING IN FROM TIME TO TIME.
SEVERE TO DESTRUCTIVE ICING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS PERIOD. THE WORST OF THE ICING IS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE ALONG THE COAST. FOR MORE INLAND AREAS...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AND THE WORST OF THE ICING TODAY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
ICE ACCRETION OF AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REACH UP TO AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS W. WE
ARE EXPECTING TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
DAMAGE IN THOSE AREAS WHERE ICING EXCEEDS A HALF INCH. THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL BRING STRONG N TO NE WINDS TO THE AREA.
THESE WINDS...UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN GUSTS AND 35 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE HEAVY ICING WILL BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES. WE DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD DAMAGE IN MOST AREAS WITH PERHAPS THE
WORST OF THE DAMAGE ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE THE GREATEST ICE
ACCRETION IS EXPECTED. POWER OUTAGES MAY LINGER FOR DAYS IF NOT A
WEEK OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
A SPECIAL SOUNDING AT CHS OVERNIGHT CONFIRMS THE CURRENT FORECAST
AND THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE SUBFREEZING LAYER BELOW
THE BROAD WARM NOSE DOES NOT EXCEED 1500 TO 2000 FT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER IT CROSSES N FL THIS EVE AND TURNS
UP THE COAST. A LARGE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BLOSSOM FURTHER AS THE MOIST AND COMPARATIVELY WARM AIRMASS TO
OUR S IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW...SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE. THE TRUE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT
AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...STRENGTHENING MORE
ONSHORE FLOW LATE DAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPS
OFFSHORE ONTO THE COAST...CHANGING FREEZING RAIN TO JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THIS SPELLS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINLY MODERATE TO PERHAPS AT
TIMES HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING...MELTING PRECIPITATION BELOW THE WARM NOSE WILL FREEZE AS
IT COMES IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND AND EXPOSED SURFACES. THUS THE
FORECAST OF SEVERE TO DESTRUCTIVE ICE. ACROSS OUR NW ZONES...SNOW
AND SLEET MAY AMOUNT TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
THIS MORNING BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS THE DEPTH OF
THE SUBFREEZING LAYER BELOW THE WARM NOSE SHRINKS CLOSER TO THE
GROUND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HOLD STEADY NEAR 30 DEGREES. HOWEVER...ALONG
THE COAST...WE DO EXPECT READINGS TO INCH TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING...
ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE TO DO SO.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
BEGINS TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE AS IT BECOMES AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
OVERWHELMED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THE FLOW WILL BACK FROM NE TO N
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY THURS LIFTING FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS WELL INLAND WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING TO START THE
DAY AND THEREFORE ANY LINGERING PCP MAY COME IN THE WAY OF FREEZING
RAIN. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURS AFTN
AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES
ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLD AND DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ALL PCP TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NW FLOW OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL DEVELOP AS THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST LATE THURS AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON THURS
INTO EARLY FRI.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE
HIGH WILL RIDGE UP FROM THE SOUTH THURS NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH
NW WINDS BUT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING CLOSER TO
60. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRI SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
LATEST GFS SHOWING A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO PRODUCE GREATER CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP...MAINLY FRI NIGHT.
AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THE
DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL SCOUR OUT ALL CLOUDS AND PCP
LEADING TO A DRIER AND COOLER FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUN THAN CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE UP
FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PRODUCE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FORM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS AHEAD OF
FRONT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
CLOUDS MAINLY AFFECTING THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN ON TUES AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL START OUT
COOLER BUT WILL END UP IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FZRA AND IP...
IS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE VFR BUT MVFR IS
DEVELOPING FROM S-N AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES. MVFR WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH IFR LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. ONCE IFR DEVELOPS IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM. FZRA/IP SHOULD
BECOME ALL RAIN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. AT KFLO FZRA/IP SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN MID-LATE AFTERNOON
WHILE FZRA MAY CONTINUE AT KLBT UNTIL THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR AND
NAM MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND INLAND THIS EVENING. DESPITE
THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR...IF PRECIPITATION DECREASES AS SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK UP THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINTRY PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THUR EVENING. FRI EVENING A
CHANCE OF TEMPO SNOW SHOWERS/IFR. VFR SAT AND SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH
WILL CREATE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT
ACTUALLY BECOMES PINCHED FOR A TIME. THIS WILL PRODUCE GALE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS...
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATER THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE GALE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE
THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 7 TO 11 FT
WITH 12 FT SEAS AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK AROUND AND
LIGHTEN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 KTS
THROUGH LATE THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES UP FROM THE GULF COAST.
SEAS UP AROUND 6 TO 8 FT EARLY THURS WILL DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WATERS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT AFTN
INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SAT
NIGHT...RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE N WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS GRADIENT
RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFF SHORE LATE MON INTO TUES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT SAT MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
3 FT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND REMAINING BENIGN THROUGH MON AFTN.
THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH MON NIGHT INTO TUES WILL PUSH SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 5 FT AGAIN.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053-055.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106>110.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
553 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
PERIOD OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND THE HRRR AND RAP...WENT AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ENDING
TIMING A BIT. THINKING SNOW MOVES OUT OF SIOUX FALLS RIGHT AROUND
12Z...AND EXITS NORTHWEST IOWA CLOSER TO 14Z OR 15Z. STILL LOOKING
AT AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING TWO INCHES.
SNOW WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND MAY STILL BE IMPACTING THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS...INTERSTATE 90 EAST OF
SIOUX FALLS AND NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...SO USE
CAUTION IF TRAVELING IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING A QUICK EVENING DROP IN TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP. THUS DID LOWER LOWS IN THE
EAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS LIKELY. HOWEVER WILL THEN SEE
RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE...WITH 20S AND 30S COMMON BY
MORNING. BEST FORCING WITH THIS WAVE STILL LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS
WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. 925 MB WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND 25 TO 35 KTS OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA. THUS SHOULD BE A BREEZY ONE AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
GUSTING TO 40 MPH SEEM LIKELY. WITH THE RECENT SNOW...AM WORRIED
ABOUT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SO WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW INTO THE GRIDS. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER WE WILL NEED A HEADLINE. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BUT THE ADDITIONAL NEW SNOW MAY HELP MAKE
THINGS A BIT WORSE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THINGS AND DECIDE IF ANY WINTER HEADLINES FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE BUT MODELS NOW
COMING BACK AROUND TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR. THURSDAY HAS BEEN A TOUGH DECISION ALL ALONG WITH VERY STANDARD
DEVIATIONS IN THE MODELS SO WILL TEMPER THE COLDER SURGE AND WHAT
WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER WINDS WITH SOME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER. BEHIND THIS COLD SURGE IS A DECENT
LITTLE WAVE AND EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION. BACKED OFF ON THE THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION
OR SLEET AS THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD BE IN THE COLDER AIR AND
NOW WITH THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER COLD AIR THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IS NOT
AS PREVALENT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH HOWEVER AS STATED ABOVE AS
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT FLAKY WITH THIS COLD SURGE.
THE COLD AIR LOCKS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WITH THE LOW
LEVELS JUST A BIT COLDER THIS GO AROUND DROPPED LOWS AND HIGHS A
TOUCH.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED
ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WHAT SHOULD MAINLY BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE ON
SATURDAY INCREASED POPS JUST A TOUCH AND DROPPED HIGHS DOWN JUST A
LITTLE. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL STRONG AS THE MODELS IN THIS FAIRLY FAST
FLOW AND SOMEWHAT TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ENVIRONMENT HAS A LOT OF
ROOM FOR ERROR. AFTER THIS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 40S OR BETTER.
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE HARDEST TIME WITH A LITTLE MORE
SNOW COVER. COOLER AIR SURGES IN ON MONDAY BUT MIXY CONDITIONS
SHOULD STILL YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LITTLE MODEL
DISCREPANCY COMES INTO PLAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE
STUBBORN ON LOCKING IN SOME COLDER AIR BUT IT HAS HAS OVERDONE THIS
A BIT LATELY SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES TOO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KFSD BY 14Z...WITH THE SNOW LASTING TO
AROUND 15Z OR 16Z ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR VISIBILITY AND BRIEF DROPS TO LIFR. WILL
KEEP THE TREND OF KEEPING MVFR STRATUS AT KSUX THROUGH THE DAY...AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYS UP AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WASH
OUT. THEN TONIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE...WHICH MAY ACT TO
BRING THIS AREA OF LEFTOVER STRATUS BACK NORTH. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS THINK THIS WILL STAY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...SO REMOVED THE
MENTION IN THE KHON TAF. HOWEVER WILL BRING THE MVFR STRATUS BACK
INTO KFSD THIS EVENING...CLEARING LATER TONIGHT AS THE WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH....AS IT
IS ALWAYS TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT THIS WINTER TIME STRATUS...AS MODELS
TEND TO OVERDO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BUT FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
SIGNAL TO KEEP THE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. ALSO COULD SEE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS THE WINDS PICK UP...BUT NOT EXPECTING
THIS TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
411 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
PERIOD OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND THE HRRR AND RAP...WENT AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ENDING
TIMING A BIT. THINKING SNOW MOVES OUT OF SIOUX FALLS RIGHT AROUND
12Z...AND EXITS NORTHWEST IOWA CLOSER TO 14Z OR 15Z. STILL LOOKING
AT AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING TWO INCHES.
SNOW WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND MAY STILL BE IMPACTING THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS...INTERSTATE 90 EAST OF
SIOUX FALLS AND NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...SO USE
CAUTION IF TRAVELING IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING A QUICK EVENING DROP IN TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP. THUS DID LOWER LOWS IN THE
EAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS LIKELY. HOWEVER WILL THEN SEE
RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE...WITH 20S AND 30S COMMON BY
MORNING. BEST FORCING WITH THIS WAVE STILL LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS
WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. 925 MB WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND 25 TO 35 KTS OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA. THUS SHOULD BE A BREEZY ONE AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
GUSTING TO 40 MPH SEEM LIKELY. WITH THE RECENT SNOW...AM WORRIED
ABOUT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SO WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW INTO THE GRIDS. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER WE WILL NEED A HEADLINE. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BUT THE ADDITIONAL NEW SNOW MAY HELP MAKE
THINGS A BIT WORSE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THINGS AND DECIDE IF ANY WINTER HEADLINES FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE BUT MODELS NOW
COMING BACK AROUND TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR. THURSDAY HAS BEEN A TOUGH DECISION ALL ALONG WITH VERY STANDARD
DEVIATIONS IN THE MODELS SO WILL TEMPER THE COLDER SURGE AND WHAT
WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER WINDS WITH SOME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER. BEHIND THIS COLD SURGE IS A DECENT
LITTLE WAVE AND EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION. BACKED OFF ON THE THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION
OR SLEET AS THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD BE IN THE COLDER AIR AND
NOW WITH THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER COLD AIR THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IS NOT
AS PREVALENT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH HOWEVER AS STATED ABOVE AS
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT FLAKY WITH THIS COLD SURGE.
THE COLD AIR LOCKS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WITH THE LOW
LEVELS JUST A BIT COLDER THIS GO AROUND DROPPED LOWS AND HIGHS A
TOUCH.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED
ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WHAT SHOULD MAINLY BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE ON
SATURDAY INCREASED POPS JUST A TOUCH AND DROPPED HIGHS DOWN JUST A
LITTLE. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL STRONG AS THE MODELS IN THIS FAIRLY FAST
FLOW AND SOMEWHAT TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ENVIRONMENT HAS A LOT OF
ROOM FOR ERROR. AFTER THIS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 40S OR BETTER.
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE HARDEST TIME WITH A LITTLE MORE
SNOW COVER. COOLER AIR SURGES IN ON MONDAY BUT MIXY CONDITIONS
SHOULD STILL YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LITTLE MODEL
DISCREPANCY COMES INTO PLAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE
STUBBORN ON LOCKING IN SOME COLDER AIR BUT IT HAS HAS OVERDONE THIS
A BIT LATELY SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014
BAND OF SNOW JUST WEST OF A KHON TO K9V9 LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT WITH THIS
BAND...EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
SOME SNOW THROUGH 12Z. EXPECTED EVOLUTION IS THAT AS SNOW MOVES IN
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE...1 TO 2SM FOR VSBYS AND CIGS
OF 1000 TO 2000 FT. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND NORTH OF A KMHE TO
KSPW LINE...INCLUDING KFSD...COULD SEE VSBYS FALL BELOW 1SM AND
CIGS LESS THAN 1000 FT FOR BRIEF PERIODS. AFTER 2 OR 3
HOURS...SNOW SHOULD END WITH VSBYS RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO GREATER
THAN 6 MILES. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO RISE AS LOW CLOUDS TRAIL THE
SNOWFALL FOR A BIT SUCH THAT BOTH KFSD AND KHON LIKELY WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BECOMING VFR. FOR KSUX...THE
RAPID APPROACH OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DECREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND EXPECT THAT THE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER KSUX MEANING CIGS OF 1500 TO 2500 FEET FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRENGTHENING
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KSUX THROUGH 06Z AND THESE SAME
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO KFSD AND KHON AFTER 00Z. THERE IS
A SMALL PROBABILITY THAT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSE AND THE
MOISTURE IS FORCED INTO A SMALLER LAYER...LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP
AND CIGS COULD FALL BELOW 1000 FT. GIVEN THAT THIS WOULD BE TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF...DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
950 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.UPDATE...
PER REPORTS RECEIVED OF SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING ACCUMULATING
ICE DUE TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT TO REFLECT SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION THRU TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/
UPDATE...12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWED A 1 TO 2 DEG WARM NOSE BTWN
925MB AND 850MB AND, BASED ON THE REPORTS OF IP AND ZR COMING IN
FROM OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BELIEVE THIS SAME TEMP PROFILE IS
PROBABLY VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER MORE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE AS WELL. THE EXACT FUTURE EXISTENCE OF
THIS WARM NOSE, THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IS
FAR FROM CERTAIN. AM NOT YET READY TO INVEST VERY MUCH IN THE THE
CONTINUED 925 WARMING FORECAST BY THE RUC THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND
WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THAT MILD, BUT
VERY DRY, LAYER WILL EVENTUALLY COOL THE LAYER CLOSER TO THE
FREEZING MARK. IN ADDITION, AFTER 925 FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS GEORGIA, DO NOT
KNOW EXACTLY WHY 925 TEMPS WOULD WARM. THUS, HAVE ADDED A WINTRY
MIX INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING, BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
FURTHER JUDGE THINGS TO SEE HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IF, INDEED, THE WARM NOSE PERSISTS LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, BLV AMENDING PRECIP
TYPE FOR THIS MORNING IS A PRUDENT AND SUFFICIENT STEP FOR NOW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-
032>034-065-066-077>080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TNZ061>064-075-093>095.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
922 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. ALSO ADDED ALL WEATHER TYPES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WITHIN A
DEFORMATION BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. A STOUT WARM LAYER BETWEEN 5-6C WAS NOTED FROM
12Z BMX AND JAN SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING AND THIS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO WORK IN ALOFT ABOVE A VERY COLD NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO MIDDLE
20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING COLDER
AIR ALOFT TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE SNOW
TO MIX IN BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A WINTRY
MIX OF ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. DUE TO THE INCREASED ICE POTENTIAL...HAVE INCREASED
ICE TOTALS TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE WINTER
STORM WARNING AREA AND AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
HAZAROUS TRAVEL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS ALL WARNING
AND ADVISORY AREAS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ICY
ROADS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...HAZARDS...AND HAZAROUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE
ALL UPDATED. PLEASE REMEMBER TO PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF SNOW OR
ICE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/
IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD
BETTER CHANCES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY AREAS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. BELIEVE THIS THREAT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL CARRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-40 AND TO THE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SHARP BACK WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME PRONOUNCED BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE MEMPHIS METRO
LIKELY TO BE IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE. THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHTER IN QPF...THAN THE GFS AND EURO...WITH THE NAM KEEPING
THE DEFINED BACK EDGE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A MORE
HRRR/EURO/GFS BLEND WITH QPF AMOUNTS TIMING...AND LOCATION OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THESE MODELS INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE 8 AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA. FORTUNATELY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...SO OVERALL WINDCHILLS WILL
BE MILD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO TODAY...AS THEY
MAY HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...HOLDING BACK AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT CAN ACCUMULATE.
BASED ON HOPEFUL STORM REPORTS A FEW COUNTIES IN THE WARNING MAY
HAVE TO BE DROPPED TO AN ADVISORY.
THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AFTER 5PM...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES BY 9PM. PARTIALLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FALLEN SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SEND CLIPPER DISTURBANCES
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WILL SWING THROUGH ON
FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS
LIGHT...BUT IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES
WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...AS A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL GENERATE A SURFACE
LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...TRACKING IT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY. STRONGER WAA AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S WITH WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ON
MONDAY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WHICH MAY GENERATE A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER OUR
SOUTH AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE SWINGS MORE NEUTRAL.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. MAIN BAND CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG TN/MS BORDER. THUS
FAR VSBYS HAVE NOT BEEN REDUCED AT KMEM BUT MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED
IN. LOOKING AT LATEST MODELS...KEEP MOST OF PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST
OF KMEM THUS THINKING WHEN THIS BAND MOVES OUT BY 16Z THAT IT MIGHT
BE IT FOR PRECIP AT KMEM. KTUP WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES ALTHOUGH THEY ARE IN A DRY SLOT RIGHT NOW. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL BANDS TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 15-20Z. NNE WINDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL BECOME N AT 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT.
KRM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 30 24 47 34 / 80 0 10 10
MKL 30 19 46 32 / 80 0 10 10
JBR 29 20 42 30 / 30 0 10 10
TUP 32 24 48 32 / 100 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-
CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-
BENTON MS-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-
TISHOMINGO-UNION.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON
TN-CARROLL-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
631 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.UPDATE...12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWED A 1 TO 2 DEG WARM NOSE BTWN
925MB AND 850MB AND, BASED ON THE REPORTS OF IP AND ZR COMING IN
FROM OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BELIEVE THIS SAME TEMP PROFILE IS
PROBABLY VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER MORE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE AS WELL. THE EXACT FUTURE EXISTENCE OF
THIS WARM NOSE, THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IS
FAR FROM CERTAIN. AM NOT YET READY TO INVEST VERY MUCH IN THE THE
CONTINUED 925 WARMING FORECAST BY THE RUC THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND
WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THAT MILD, BUT
VERY DRY, LAYER WILL EVENTUALLY COOL THE LAYER CLOSER TO THE
FREEZING MARK. IN ADDITION, AFTER 925 FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS GEORGIA, DO NOT
KNOW EXACTLY WHY 925 TEMPS WOULD WARM. THUS, HAVE ADDED A WINTRY
MIX INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING, BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
FURTHER JUDGE THINGS TO SEE HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IF, INDEED, THE WARM NOSE PERSISTS LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, BLV AMENDING PRECIP
TYPE FOR THIS MORNING IS A PRUDENT AND SUFFICIENT STEP FOR NOW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-
032>034-065-066-077>080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TNZ061>064-075-093>095.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.UPDATE..
UPDATED TO ADD CRITTENDON COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AND TO TAKE A FEW NORTH MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES OUT OF THE WARNING AND
PLACE THEM IN THE ADVISORY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS MORNING BAND IN THE MEMPHIS METRO EXTENDING
BACK INTO CRITTENDON COUNTY...SO HAVE ADDED THEM TO THE ADVISORY.
ALSO LATEST HRRR MODEL TRENDS AND 06Z MODEL RUNS THE DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL INITIALIZE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COUNTIES OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI STILL
SEEING UP TO THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL...BUT
LAFAYETTE...YALOBUSHA...TALLAHATCHIE...CALHOUN...CHICKASAW...AND MONROE
COUNTIES LESSER AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED. BASED OFF LATEST
REGIONAL UPPER AIR DATA SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ADVISORY AND WARNING
AREAS.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/
IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD
BETTER CHANCES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY AREAS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. BELIEVE THIS THREAT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL CARRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-40 AND TO THE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SHARP BACK WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME PRONOUNCED BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE MEMPHIS METRO
LIKELY TO BE IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE. THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHTER IN QPF...THAN THE GFS AND EURO...WITH THE NAM KEEPING
THE DEFINED BACK EDGE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A MORE
HRRR/EURO/GFS BLEND WITH QPF AMOUNTS TIMING...AND LOCATION OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THESE MODELS INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE 8 AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA. FORTUNATELY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...SO OVERALL WINDCHILLS WILL
BE MILD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO TODAY...AS THEY
MAY HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...HOLDING BACK AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT CAN ACCUMULATE.
BASED ON HOPEFUL STORM REPORTS A FEW COUNTIES IN THE WARNING MAY
HAVE TO BE DROPPED TO AN ADVISORY.
THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AFTER 5PM...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES BY 9PM. PARTIALLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FALLEN SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SEND CLIPPER DISTURBANCES
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WILL SWING THROUGH ON
FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS
LIGHT...BUT IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES
WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...AS A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL GENERATE A SURFACE
LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...TRACKING IT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY. STRONGER WAA AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S WITH WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ON
MONDAY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
.WHICH MAY GENERATE A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER OUR
SOUTH AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE SWINGS MORE NEUTRAL.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. MAIN BAND CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG TN/MS BORDER. THUS
FAR VSBYS HAVE NOT BEEN REDUCED AT KMEM BUT MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED
IN. LOOKING AT LATEST MODELS...KEEP MOST OF PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST
OF KMEM THUS THINKING WHEN THIS BAND MOVES OUT BY 16Z THAT IT MIGHT
BE IT FOR PRECIP AT KMEM. KTUP WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES ALTHOUGH THEY ARE IN A DRY SLOT RIGHT NOW. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL BANDS TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 15-20Z. NNE WINDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL BECOME N AT 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT.
KRM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 31 24 47 34 / 70 0 10 10
MKL 31 19 46 32 / 80 0 10 10
JBR 29 20 42 30 / 10 0 10 10
TUP 35 24 48 32 / 100 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
CRITTENDEN.
MO...NONE.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-
CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-
BENTON MS-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-
TISHOMINGO-UNION.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON
TN-CARROLL-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-SHELBY-
TIPTON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
533 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/
IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD
BETTER CHANCES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY AREAS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. BELIEVE THIS THREAT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL CARRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-40 AND TO THE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SHARP BACK WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME PRONOUNCED BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE MEMPHIS METRO
LIKELY TO BE IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE. THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHTER IN QPF...THAN THE GFS AND EURO...WITH THE NAM KEEPING
THE DEFINED BACK EDGE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A MORE
HRRR/EURO/GFS BLEND WITH QPF AMOUNTS TIMING...AND LOCATION OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THESE MODELS INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE 8 AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA. FORTUNATELY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...SO OVERALL WINDCHILLS WILL
BE MILD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO TODAY...AS THEY
MAY HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...HOLDING BACK AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT CAN ACCUMULATE.
BASED ON HOPEFUL STORM REPORTS A FEW COUNTIES IN THE WARNING MAY
HAVE TO BE DROPPED TO AN ADVISORY.
THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AFTER 5PM...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES BY 9PM. PARTIALLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FALLEN SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SEND CLIPPER DISTURBANCES
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WILL SWING THROUGH ON
FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS
LIGHT...BUT IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES
WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...AS A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL GENERATE A SURFACE
LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...TRACKING IT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY. STRONGER WAA AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S WITH WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ON
MONDAY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
..WHICH MAY GENERATE A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER OUR
SOUTH AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE SWINGS MORE NEUTRAL.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. MAIN BAND CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG TN/MS BORDER. THUS
FAR VSBYS HAVE NOT BEEN REDUCED AT KMEM BUT MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED
IN. LOOKING AT LATEST MODELS...KEEP MOST OF PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST
OF KMEM THUS THINKING WHEN THIS BAND MOVES OUT BY 16Z THAT IT MIGHT
BE IT FOR PRECIP AT KMEM. KTUP WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES ALTHOUGH THEY ARE IN A DRY SLOT RIGHT NOW. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL BANDS TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 15-20Z. NNE WINDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL BECOME N AT 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT.
KRM
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 33 24 47 34 / 70 0 10 10
MKL 33 19 46 32 / 60 0 10 10
JBR 32 20 42 30 / 10 0 10 10
TUP 36 24 48 32 / 100 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-
BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON
TN-CARROLL-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-SHELBY-
TIPTON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
512 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR visibilities in fog will persist at KCNM and KHOB until at
least 12/14Z before lifting. Fog will be much more spotty near the
other TAF sites, so will not take them down. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail areawide through the day. Aside from high
clouds streaming over the region, a cold front will move into the
area with little fanfare, but will result in winds veering 360
degrees in the next 24 hours. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through Saturday before
turning zonal Sunday through the middle of next week. In the
short term, areas of dense freezing fog continue to develop
across the extreme eastern Permian Basin. The RUC13 model
is handling the surface relative humidity the best in these
locations in the short term. We will issue a freezing fog advisory
through mid morning for the extreme eastern Permian Basin. Some
freezing fog is also occurring across the southeast New Mexico
plains and northwest Permian Basin but the approach of high clouds
should keep the fog from becoming dense their. After the fog burns
off this morning temperatures will warm to near normal values
this afternoon due to a decent amount of sunshine and warming 850
millibar temperatures. A very warm and dry day is expected
Thursday due to a surface lee trough and low level thermal ridging
and downslope developing.
The northwest flow aloft will drive a dry cold front through the
forecast area late Thursday night and Friday. High temperatures will
be knocked back to near normal values Friday north of the Pecos
river but remain above normal south and west of the Pecos. Another
surface lee trough/low is expected to develop Saturday and Sunday
with much above normal temperatures developing again in the low
level thermal ridging and downslope flow.
A weak upper level trough will move across the plains and drive
a weak and dry cold front through the forecast area Monday.
Temperatures will still remain well above normal Monday through
next Wednesday with no precipitation expected.
FIRE WEATHER...
Near normal temperatures will prevail today after a chilly start.
Although minimum afternoon rh/s could drop to near 15 percent
around the Presidio Valley and Big Bend Region, 20 foot winds
will remain below 20 mph. Recovery tonight will be fair over the
higher terrain, but good or better elsewhere. Near critical fire
weather conditions will be possible Thursday afternoon, especially
in and near the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where 20 foot wind
speeds will be stronger. Will not issue a fire weather watch at
this time since conditions appear too marginal. Another cold
front will move through most of the area Friday. With rh/s
dropping to near 15 percent near the Rio Grande River.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 59 36 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 59 33 75 39 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 31 82 38 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 68 39 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 45 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 56 42 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 33 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 64 26 74 33 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 34 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 61 36 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 65 31 79 37 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
Scurry.
&&
$$
67/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
510 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MINOR
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BUT APPEARS
ENOUGH DRY ADVECTION ON LIGHT SW WINDS TO KEEP THAT FROM
HAPPENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY 15Z WITH NORTH WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY POST-FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/
SHORT TERM...
WARMER TODAY BY ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS...THIS
DESPITE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE TO NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE RETURNING
TO THE SRN PLAINS...BUT ALSO TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
AS MUCH OF THE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST
AREA IS REPLACED BY FLAT RIDGING. STILL...WILL FAVOR LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE FOR AFTN HIGHS. SFC WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND SW OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE GIVEN RECENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION.
OF NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM IS SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. HRRR SHOWING SOME SMALL PATCHES OF LOWER
VSBY BTWN 06Z AND 18Z. MESONET OBS SHOWING SOME SCATTERED DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO BUT WITH VEERING WINDS TO THE SW SHOULD SEE
SOME MODEST DRY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OF INTEREST...SO ATTM NOT
ANTICIPATING THE NEED TO INSERT A MENTION INTO THE FCST.
LONG TERM...
A QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY MILD PATTERN IS STILL A GUARANTEE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. EVEN THE HANDFUL OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL
SLIDE INTO THE REGION /COURTESY OF SHALLOW AND TROUGHS GRAZING THE
REGION/ SHOW NO ABILITY TO PUSH OUR HIGHS BLO CLIMO OR EVEN
GENERATE ANY LOW CLOUDS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE FIRST OF THESE
FRONTS ARRIVES FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND CONDITIONAL FROPA SAT NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A THIRD COME MONDAY. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS JUST
HOW MUCH TEMPS WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. FEEL MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN BEING TOO GENEROUS WITH
DEWPOINTS /PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND/...SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
QUITE A BIT WHICH RESULTS IN VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. ADD TO
THIS 15-20 MPH WINDS AND A FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE
SETTING FOOT IN THE RING. ONLY BY MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK DOES THIS
ZONAL FLOW REGIME BEGIN AMPLIFYING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IN THE FORM
OF L/W TROUGHING TO OUR W-NW WHICH HINTS AT INCREASINGLY WINDY
AND DUSTY CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS. SOME GOMEX MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD BY THIS TIME...THOUGH SHOULD BE SWEPT TO OUR
EAST UNLESS THE SWLY UPPER FLOW CAN TREND MORE MERIDIONAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 31 71 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 50 30 68 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 52 30 71 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 56 32 73 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 55 31 72 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 57 32 72 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 57 33 74 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 49 27 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 52 31 70 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 50 30 68 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/93/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
413 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through Saturday before
turning zonal Sunday through the middle of next week. In the
short term, areas of dense freezing fog continue to develop
across the extreme eastern Permian Basin. The RUC13 model
is handling the surface relative humidity the best in these
locations in the short term. We will issue a freezing fog advisory
through mid morning for the extreme eastern Permian Basin. Some
freezing fog is also occurring across the southeast New Mexico
plains and northwest Permian Basin but the approach of high clouds
should keep the fog from becoming dense their. After the fog burns
off this morning temperatures will warm to near normal values
this afternoon due to a decent amount of sunshine and warming 850
millibar temperatures. A very warm and dry day is expected
Thursday due to a surface lee trough and low level thermal ridging
and downslope developing.
The northwest flow aloft will drive a dry cold front through the
forecast area late Thursday night and Friday. High temperatures will
be knocked back to near normal values Friday north of the Pecos
river but remain above normal south and west of the Pecos. Another
surface lee trough/low is expected to develop Saturday and Sunday
with much above normal temperatures developing again in the low
level thermal ridging and downslope flow.
A weak upper level trough will move across the plains and drive
a weak and dry cold front through the forecast area Monday.
Temperatures will still remain well above normal Monday through
next Wednesday with no precipitation expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Near normal temperatures will prevail today after a chilly start.
Although minimum afternoon rh/s could drop to near 15 percent
around the Presidio Valley and Big Bend Region, 20 foot winds
will remain below 20 mph. Recovery tonight will be fair over the
higher terrain, but good or better elsewhere. Near critical fire
weather conditions will be possible Thursday afternoon, especially
in and near the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where 20 foot wind
speeds will be stronger. Will not issue a fire weather watch at
this time since conditions appear too marginal. Another cold
front will move through most of the area Friday. With rh/s
dropping to near 15 percent near the Rio Grande River.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 59 36 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 59 33 75 39 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 31 82 38 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 68 39 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 45 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 56 42 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 33 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 64 26 74 33 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 34 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 61 36 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 65 31 79 37 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
Scurry.
&&
$$
67/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
550 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
AT 3 AM...TWO AREAS OF SNOW WAS SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 900 TO
800 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN AREA OF SNOW WHICH
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE TWIN CITIES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 800 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE 12.00Z AND
12.06Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TWO AREAS WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TOGETHER. WITH THE NMM...ARW...AND RAP HAVING SIMILAR TIMING
TRENDED THE SNOW CHANCES TOWARD THEM. WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
LOOKING A BIT LOWER...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED TO AROUND AN
INCH.
FOR LATE TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION OCCURS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS.
SINCE THIS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS...RAISED THE
SNOW CHANCES UP SOME MORE. WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES...ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE NAM CONTINUES TO KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM... AND ECMWF HAS ITS
PRECIPITATION MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINKING THAT THE NAM IS
TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS SNOW AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE TOO FAR
SOUTH...SO WENT WITH A BLEND. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE UP TO AN
INCH.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 12.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
IOWA. THIS TRACK IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN IT WAS IN 11.00Z
AND 11.12Z MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE LOOKS MUCH
STRONGER THAN IT DID IN EITHER OF THESE RUNS...SO IT MAKES SENSE
THAT THERE WOULD BE A SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN ITS TRACK. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...TOOK OUT THE SNOW CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...
AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED NEAR
150 DEGREE WEST LONGITUDE. AS THIS OCCURS...OUR WINDS SHIFT A BIT
MORE NORTHERLY ALLOWING COLD AIR FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -8 TO -12C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
IN ADDITION WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE ON SATURDAY...
THE POLAR JET HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DECREASED THE SNOW CHANCES FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ABOUT 150 MB OF DENDRITIC GROWTH BETWEEN 700 AND 550 MB. THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO AROUND 18:1. WITH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RUNNING BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.15 INCHES...
EXPECT SNOW TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS AN OPEN WAVE
MOVING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION...THUS A WEAK LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF INITIALLY HAS A SIMILAR
UPPER WAVE STRUCTURE INITIALLY. HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
STRONG WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS RESULT IN STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS WEST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SNOW THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND
HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET THIS MORNING. THE LEADING BAND THAT
RUNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA IS...AT ITS LOWEST...2SM AND THEN
JUMPS UP TO AROUND 4SM RIGHT BEHIND IT. SO...EXPECT THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END...IT WILL TAKE A
FEW HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND HELP TO BRING
WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH HOW
LONG THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON FOR...BUT FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED
IT PESSIMISTIC WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GETS STUCK UNDER A STRONG INVERSION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
451 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH ONGOING MIXTURE OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND IMPACTS ON ALREADY
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...TREES/LIMBS DOWN...AND ROAD CONDITIONS.
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE MAINTAINS CAA FROM THE STRONG 1032MB PARENT HIGH
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS HAS BEEN FIGHTING DIABATIC
EFFECTS FROM THE OVERRUNNING GULF MOISTURE AND FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.
WHILE PREVIOUS UPSTREAM SLUG OF MOISTURE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF MAY
HAVE LIMITED PREVIOUS DAYTIME QPF...THE HRRR VERIFIED WELL DURING
THIS TIME AND WAS CONSISTENT WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT FILLING BACK IN
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BEFORE THE EXITING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY GOOD ISENTROPIC FORCING AGAINST THE WEDGE AND UPPER
FORCING FROM GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND INCREASING PVA WITH THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED POPS CLOSE
TO THIS SOLUTION UNTIL NEAR 06Z THEN CLOSE TO BLEND OF GENERAL
GUIDANCE AS THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE BAROCLINIC LEAF OF THE
DEEPENING LOW IMPACTS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES AND TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA HAS SUPPORTED A SMALLER
SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN...WHICH COULD EASILY BE MIXED WITH
SLEET AT TIMES. THE NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE PREVIOUS ICE STORM
WARNING LOOKS TO PRIMARILY GET A SLEET AND SNOW MIX SO HAVE
TRANSITIONED THE COUNTIES NORTH OF I-20 INTO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AND OUT OF THE ICE STORM ZONE. THE REST OF THE NORTH HAS
RECENTLY HAD A MIXTURE OF MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW WITH SOME MORE
CONVECTIVE LOOKING BANDS...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO
ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP WITH THE LOW
SWINGING THROUGH. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A MORE APPARENT 700MB
TROWAL ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEAR 06Z. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SOME SNOW BANDING MAY REACH AND
COULD DROP A QUICK 1-2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GA.
FOR ICE AND SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE TONED ICE AMOUNTS DOWN TO AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER OR UP TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE WARNING AREA AND
HAVE GONE WITH SIMILAR ADVERTISED SNOW AMOUNTS BEING MAXIMIZED IN
THE NORTHEAST OF AN ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES...AND 1-3 INCHES IN A SW
TO NE SWATH FROM A LAGRANGE TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS ZONE.. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE UNDERCUT BY SOME SLEET AT TIMES.
FOR TEMPS...HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TRENDS WITH EVENT BUT
HAVE HAD LOCAL RISES AND FALLS BY 1-2 DEGREES. SHOULD STILL REACH
OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS SO WILL
POSE A MAJOR THREAT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXED PRECIP FREEZING
TOGETHER. ANY MELTING THAT OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY AREAS
PROGGED TO REACH THE LOW 40S WILL ALSO POSE A DANGER FOR FALLING
PIECES OF ICE.
GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD STILL BE ENHANCED THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND LINGERING HIGH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE LIMBS AND TREES TO FALL ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES
LIKELY.
ALL-IN-ALL THE PRIMARY THREATS OF THE WINTER STORM AND ICE CONTINUE
BUT ACROSS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ZONES...EVEN THOUGH SOME ICE AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED LOWER. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PLEASE STAY PUT AND REMAIN OFF THE ROADS AND IN
A SAFE LOCATION!
BAKER
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS PAST THURSDAY RIGHT NOW. FAST
MOVING SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY
THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING OF SNOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS PRECIPITATION SO LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER FOR CHANGES IN EXPECTED IMPACTS.
ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT MAY BE AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH THAT STILL
HAVE ICE/SNOW LINGERING FROM THE CURRENT STORM.
20
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 339 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ASSOCIATE MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY INTO N GA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF N GA WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE FOR FAR N FULTON COUNTY
AND NE TO THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS RATHER INCONSISTENT BRINGING MOISTURE ACROSS N GA SATURDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
GFS AND EUROPEAN DIFFERING WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS
MUCH FASTER BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME FAVORING THE WPC POP GRID FOR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GA. THIS COULD CHANGE GREATLY WITH OTHER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME
AIRMASS SEEMS TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS ONLY.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WINTRY MIX OF PREDOMINATELY FZRA WITH SOME PL/SN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE
TAF SITES...THROUGH 12Z WITH PL/SN BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANT AFTER
00Z. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 10-16Z. GENERALLY
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...
IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12-18Z
MOST AREAS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 8-12KTS BY 00-06Z AND
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 27 42 31 49 / 100 30 0 20
ATLANTA 28 43 34 52 / 100 20 0 20
BLAIRSVILLE 29 40 25 45 / 100 30 5 60
CARTERSVILLE 31 43 30 51 / 100 20 0 30
COLUMBUS 32 48 36 59 / 80 10 0 10
GAINESVILLE 28 43 32 49 / 100 30 0 20
MACON 30 46 32 57 / 90 20 0 10
ROME 31 43 29 50 / 100 20 5 60
PEACHTREE CITY 29 44 30 54 / 100 20 0 20
VIDALIA 32 47 35 61 / 100 20 0 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CLAYTON...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...GLASCOCK...
GREENE...HANCOCK...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...PEACH...PIKE...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TREUTLEN...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WILKINSON.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...HARRIS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...
SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...FANNIN...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...
JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...TOWNS...UNION...
WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....BDL/20
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014
...MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH CRIPPLING EFFECTS STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SURGE OF MOISTURE AND DIABATIC EFFECTS FIGHTING THE
CAA FROM THE REINFORCED CAD WEDGE RESULTED IN 0.1-0.25 INCHES OF
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN
TIER WITH SOME SLEET OBSERVED BETWEEN. TRENDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
LOWER QPF SIDE LIKELY DUE TO AN ENHANCED SLUG OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTH GA AND NORTH FL...ALLOWING FOR A MOMENTARY LULL WITH
ONLY LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE HAD PRIMARILY RAIN. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS
CONSISTENTLY INDICATED PRECIP FILLING BACK IN AND A DECENT BAND OF
DEVELOPMENT STARTING BACK BY 21-00Z...AND HAS VERIFIED WELL WITH
BREAKS IN THE ACTION SO NOT WANTING TO ADJUST TOTALS TOO MUCH AT
THE MOMENT. STILL FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY
DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES MAINLY IN A NW TO SE SWATH
FROM NEAR CARROLLTON...THROUGH ATLANTA...THEN WITHIN THE I-20 TO
I-16 CORRIDOR. STILL STRONG ISENTROPIC FORCING FORECAST AGAINST
THE WEDGE COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMIC FORCING. WILL STAY THE
COURSE WITH THE MAIN FORECAST BUT COULD END UP ADJUSTING TOTALS A
BIT WITH FRESH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 339 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/
WE ARE WATCHING A WINTER STORM OF HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE BEGINNING
TO UNFOLD ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT. REPORTS OF SNOW AND SLEET
ALREADY COMING IN ACROSS THE METRO AREA AS CAD WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH HAS JUST CROSSED THE
APPALACHIANS SO THE AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT IS KICKING IN...AND CAD
SHOULD BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THAT...
IT WILL BE A MATTER OF COMPETING EFFECTS OF HORIZONTAL THERMAL
ADVECTION /CAA IN SURFACE LAYER AND WAA ALOFT/ WITH LATENT HEAT
EFFECTS. IN A NUTSHELL...SNOW FALLING INTO AN ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER
WILL COOL THE LAYER FROM LATENT HEAT OF MELTING...AND RAIN FALLING
INTO A SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL WARM THE LAYER FROM LATENT
HEAT OF FREEZING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH ADVECTION TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS
AND AT TIMES EVEN SURPASS THE DIABATIC EFFECTS.
NO SURPRISE ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC FIELDS. SURFACE CAD...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INITIALLY AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND CUTS OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BEFORE PUSHING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CAUSING MORE
PROBLEMS UP THAT WAY. ECMWF AND GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT
ECMWF REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC LIFT
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WE ARE SOLIDLY IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
THINK THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN QPF FIELDS ON
NAM/GFS BUT OVERALL SOLUTION IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES QPF ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
WITH AROUND AN INCH LIQUID ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER. AS THE WEATHER
ENTERPRISE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT
MAINLY SNOW EXTREME NORTH...SNOW/SLEET/FZRA MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE
METRO AREA...WITH MAINLY FZRA ON THE SOUTH SIDE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THIS IS A STORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS WITH POTENTIALLY
CATASTROPHIC...CRIPPLING IMPACTS.
SNOW RATIOS UP NORTH RUN BETWEEN 6:1 AND 10:1 WHICH LINES UP WITH
WITH OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL 8:1. OVERALL A WET SNOW /VERY GOOD FOR
SNOWBALLS FOR THE KIDS HOME FOR SCHOOL...AND OF COURSE SOME PARENTS
HOME FROM WORK/. IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLING...EXPECTING
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME SLEET
FROM GENERALLY ATLANTA TO ATHENS AND POINTS NORTH. A LARGE SWATH OF
GREATER THAN 6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TOTALS UPWARDS OF A FOOT IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
ZONES.
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE SNOWFALL IS...AND MAKE NO MISTAKE THESE ARE
SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS...IT IS THE ICE THAT WILL HAVE THE
CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS. A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ICE. FOR EXAMPLE AT AHN...THE GFS WARM NOSE IS A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING
RAIN. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DEPTH OF THE WARM NOSE...AM STILL
LEANING TOWARD KEEPING QUITE A BIT OF FZRA IN THAT AREA. SO WITH
THAT...ICE TOTALS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OUT BUT
THINK THE 1/4 INCH LINE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MAX TOTALS
ALONG THE EAST I-20 CORRIDOR ARE BUMPED UP A LITTLE TO OVER AN INCH.
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN CASE IT HASNT BEEN
MADE CLEAR ALREADY...THESE ARE CATASTROPHIC AND CRIPPLING TOTALS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR
DAYS. IF RESIDENTS HAVE NOT COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS IT MAY BE
TOO LATE.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRETTY BREEZY...GENERALLY 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 OR POSSIBLY 30. ADD THESE WINDS TO THE AMOUNT OF ICE
EXPECTED AND THAT WILL JUST EXACERBATE THE POWER LOSS ISSUES.
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FZRA RESULTING IN A GLAZE...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN PLACE. WILL START THE ADVISORY A LITTLE
EARLIER JUST TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE THIS MORNING.
AS IF ALL THAT WASNT ENOUGH...STRENGTH OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT PRETTY IMPRESSIVE...AND WITH THAT THERE IS
SOME NEGATIVE SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON TOP OF IT.
THOSE ARE BIG GEEKY WORDS BUT BASICALLY IT MEANS THERE COULD BE SOME
EMBEDDED /SYMMETRIC/ INSTABILITY TO DEAL WITH AND SO CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME EMBEDDED CLAPS OF THUNDER. NOT ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO ADD TO
THE GRIDS BUT IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS THAT COULD EASILY AND
QUICKLY CHANGE THE P-TYPE. TRYING TO CATCH HOURLY P-TYPE IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE IN AN EVENT LIKE THIS SO IT IS BEST TO JUST FOCUS ON
PREDOMINANT P-TYPE.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS...LAPSE RATES INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DECREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE P-TYPE TO ALL SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE. LUCKILY ON THURSDAY
THE TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. I WANT TO ADD A CAVEAT THAT GUIDANCE IS HORRIBLE AT
TEMPERATURES WITH SNOWPACK...SO WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS TONIGHT IT
IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT LOW TEMPS MIGHT BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
THAN CURRENT FORECASTS ARE ADVERTISING /LIKE WHAT HAPPENED A COUPLE
OF WEEKS AGO/...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY BE KEPT LOWER. WILL
REEVALUATE THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS.
PRETTY SURE THAT THERE ARE SOME THINGS I HAVENT COVERED HERE BUT
HOPEFULLY THIS LIGHT READING MATERIAL IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GET
EVERYONES DAY STARTED. THE BOTTOM LINE...AS THE ENTIRE WEATHER
ENTERPRISE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW...
THIS-IS-AN-EVENT-OF-HISTORICAL-PROPORTIONS!!
CATASTROPHIC...CRIPPLING...PARALYZING...CHOOSE YOUR ADJECTIVE. THIS
IS A VERY VERY BIG DEAL ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA EAST ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY ANYWHERE SOUTH OF I-85 AND NORTH OF I-16
WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICE TOTALS ARE FORECAST. STAY SAFE OUT
THERE!
TDP
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 339 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ASSOCIATE MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY INTO N GA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF N GA WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE FOR FAR N FULTON COUNTY
AND NE TO THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS RATHER INCONSISTENT BRINGING MOISTURE ACROSS N GA SATURDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
GFS AND EUROPEAN DIFFERING WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS
MUCH FASTER BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME FAVORING THE WPC POP GRID FOR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GA. THIS COULD CHANGE GREATLY WITH OTHER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME
AIRMASS SEEMS TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS ONLY.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WINTRY MIX OF PREDOMINATELY FZRA WITH SOME PL/SN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE
TAF SITES...THROUGH 12Z WITH PL/SN BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANT AFTER
00Z. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 10-16Z. GENERALLY
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...
IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12-18Z
MOST AREAS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 8-12KTS BY 00-06Z AND
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 29 28 40 31 / 100 100 40 0
ATLANTA 33 27 41 34 / 100 100 20 0
BLAIRSVILLE 29 29 39 25 / 100 100 40 5
CARTERSVILLE 33 29 42 30 / 100 100 20 0
COLUMBUS 37 30 48 36 / 100 100 10 0
GAINESVILLE 29 27 41 32 / 100 100 40 0
MACON 33 29 45 32 / 100 100 20 0
ROME 35 29 43 29 / 100 100 20 5
PEACHTREE CITY 34 27 43 30 / 100 100 20 0
VIDALIA 35 31 48 35 / 100 100 20 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MADISON...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PEACH...PIKE...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALIAFERRO...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WILKES...WILKINSON.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...HARRIS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...
SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...FANNIN...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...
JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PICKENS...
POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TDP/BAKER
LONG TERM...BDL
AVIATION...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1117 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
...MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH CRIPPLING EFFECTS STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SURGE OF MOISTURE AND DIABATIC EFFECTS FIGHTING THE
CAA FROM THE REINFORCED CAD WEDGE RESULTED IN 0.1-0.25 INCHES OF
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN
TIER WITH SOME SLEET OBSERVED BETWEEN. TRENDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
LOWER QPF SIDE LIKELY DUE TO AN ENHANCED SLUG OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTH GA AND NORTH FL...ALLOWING FOR A MOMENTARY LULL WITH
ONLY LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE HAD PRIMARILY RAIN. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS
CONSISTENTLY INDICATED PRECIP FILLING BACK IN AND A DECENT BAND OF
DEVELOPMENT STARTING BACK BY 21-00Z...AND HAS VERIFIED WELL WITH
BREAKS IN THE ACTION SO NOT WANTING TO ADJUST TOTALS TOO MUCH AT
THE MOMENT. STILL FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY
DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES MAINLY IN A NW TO SE SWATH
FROM NEAR CARROLLTON...THROUGH ATLANTA...THEN WITHIN THE I-20 TO
I-16 CORRIDOR. STILL STRONG ISENTROPIC FORCING FORECAST AGAINST
THE WEDGE COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMIC FORCING. WILL STAY THE
COURSE WITH THE MAIN FORECAST BUT COULD END UP ADJUSTING TOTALS A
BIT WITH FRESH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 339 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/
WE ARE WATCHING A WINTER STORM OF HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE BEGINNING
TO UNFOLD ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT. REPORTS OF SNOW AND SLEET
ALREADY COMING IN ACROSS THE METRO AREA AS CAD WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH HAS JUST CROSSED THE
APPALACHIANS SO THE AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT IS KICKING IN...AND CAD
SHOULD BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THAT...
IT WILL BE A MATTER OF COMPETING EFFECTS OF HORIZONTAL THERMAL
ADVECTION /CAA IN SURFACE LAYER AND WAA ALOFT/ WITH LATENT HEAT
EFFECTS. IN A NUTSHELL...SNOW FALLING INTO AN ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER
WILL COOL THE LAYER FROM LATENT HEAT OF MELTING...AND RAIN FALLING
INTO A SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL WARM THE LAYER FROM LATENT
HEAT OF FREEZING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH ADVECTION TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS
AND AT TIMES EVEN SURPASS THE DIABATIC EFFECTS.
NO SURPRISE ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC FIELDS. SURFACE CAD...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INITIALLY AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND CUTS OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BEFORE PUSHING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CAUSING MORE
PROBLEMS UP THAT WAY. ECMWF AND GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT
ECMWF REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC LIFT
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WE ARE SOLIDLY IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
THINK THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN QPF FIELDS ON
NAM/GFS BUT OVERALL SOLUTION IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES QPF ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
WITH AROUND AN INCH LIQUID ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER. AS THE WEATHER
ENTERPRISE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT
MAINLY SNOW EXTREME NORTH...SNOW/SLEET/FZRA MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE
METRO AREA...WITH MAINLY FZRA ON THE SOUTH SIDE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THIS IS A STORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS WITH POTENTIALLY
CATASTROPHIC...CRIPPLING IMPACTS.
SNOW RATIOS UP NORTH RUN BETWEEN 6:1 AND 10:1 WHICH LINES UP WITH
WITH OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL 8:1. OVERALL A WET SNOW /VERY GOOD FOR
SNOWBALLS FOR THE KIDS HOME FOR SCHOOL...AND OF COURSE SOME PARENTS
HOME FROM WORK/. IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLING...EXPECTING
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME SLEET
FROM GENERALLY ATLANTA TO ATHENS AND POINTS NORTH. A LARGE SWATH OF
GREATER THAN 6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TOTALS UPWARDS OF A FOOT IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
ZONES.
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE SNOWFALL IS...AND MAKE NO MISTAKE THESE ARE
SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS...IT IS THE ICE THAT WILL HAVE THE
CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS. A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ICE. FOR EXAMPLE AT AHN...THE GFS WARM NOSE IS A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING
RAIN. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DEPTH OF THE WARM NOSE...AM STILL
LEANING TOWARD KEEPING QUITE A BIT OF FZRA IN THAT AREA. SO WITH
THAT...ICE TOTALS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OUT BUT
THINK THE 1/4 INCH LINE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MAX TOTALS
ALONG THE EAST I-20 CORRIDOR ARE BUMPED UP A LITTLE TO OVER AN INCH.
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN CASE IT HASNT BEEN
MADE CLEAR ALREADY...THESE ARE CATASTROPHIC AND CRIPPLING TOTALS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR
DAYS. IF RESIDENTS HAVE NOT COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS IT MAY BE
TOO LATE.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRETTY BREEZY...GENERALLY 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 OR POSSIBLY 30. ADD THESE WINDS TO THE AMOUNT OF ICE
EXPECTED AND THAT WILL JUST EXACERBATE THE POWER LOSS ISSUES.
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FZRA RESULTING IN A GLAZE...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN PLACE. WILL START THE ADVISORY A LITTLE
EARLIER JUST TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE THIS MORNING.
AS IF ALL THAT WASNT ENOUGH...STRENGTH OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT PRETTY IMPRESSIVE...AND WITH THAT THERE IS
SOME NEGATIVE SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON TOP OF IT.
THOSE ARE BIG GEEKY WORDS BUT BASICALLY IT MEANS THERE COULD BE SOME
EMBEDDED /SYMMETRIC/ INSTABILITY TO DEAL WITH AND SO CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME EMBEDDED CLAPS OF THUNDER. NOT ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO ADD TO
THE GRIDS BUT IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS THAT COULD EASILY AND
QUICKLY CHANGE THE P-TYPE. TRYING TO CATCH HOURLY P-TYPE IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE IN AN EVENT LIKE THIS SO IT IS BEST TO JUST FOCUS ON
PREDOMINANT P-TYPE.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS...LAPSE RATES INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DECREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE P-TYPE TO ALL SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE. LUCKILY ON THURSDAY
THE TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. I WANT TO ADD A CAVEAT THAT GUIDANCE IS HORRIBLE AT
TEMPERATURES WITH SNOWPACK...SO WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS TONIGHT IT
IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT LOW TEMPS MIGHT BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
THAN CURRENT FORECASTS ARE ADVERTISING /LIKE WHAT HAPPENED A COUPLE
OF WEEKS AGO/...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY BE KEPT LOWER. WILL
REEVALUATE THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS.
PRETTY SURE THAT THERE ARE SOME THINGS I HAVENT COVERED HERE BUT
HOPEFULLY THIS LIGHT READING MATERIAL IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GET
EVERYONES DAY STARTED. THE BOTTOM LINE...AS THE ENTIRE WEATHER
ENTERPRISE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW...
THIS-IS-AN-EVENT-OF-HISTORICAL-PROPORTIONS!!
CATASTROPHIC...CRIPPLING...PARALYZING...CHOOSE YOUR ADJECTIVE. THIS
IS A VERY VERY BIG DEAL ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA EAST ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY ANYWHERE SOUTH OF I-85 AND NORTH OF I-16
WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICE TOTALS ARE FORECAST. STAY SAFE OUT
THERE!
TDP
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 339 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ASSOCIATE MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY INTO N GA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF N GA WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE FOR FAR N FULTON COUNTY
AND NE TO THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS RATHER INCONSISTENT BRINGING MOISTURE ACROSS N GA SATURDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
GFS AND EUROPEAN DIFFERING WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS
MUCH FASTER BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME FAVORING THE WPC POP GRID FOR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GA. THIS COULD CHANGE GREATLY WITH OTHER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME
AIRMASS SEEMS TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS ONLY.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
FZRA WAS FALLING IN ATL AREA ALONG WITH AHN. CSG AND MCN SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO FZRA BY 13/14Z...HOWEVER CSG WILL SWITCH BACK TO RAIN
AS THE SURFACE LOW EDGES A LITTLE CLOSER BRINGING IN SOME WARMER
AIR. THE FZRA WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST/NORTHEAST UP TO 30KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. IFR/MVFR CLOUDS WILL BECOME
ALL IFR AND REMAIN IFR INTO TONIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 29 28 40 31 / 100 100 40 0
ATLANTA 33 27 41 34 / 100 100 20 0
BLAIRSVILLE 29 29 39 25 / 100 100 40 5
CARTERSVILLE 33 29 42 30 / 100 100 20 0
COLUMBUS 37 30 48 36 / 100 100 10 0
GAINESVILLE 29 27 41 32 / 100 100 40 0
MACON 33 29 45 32 / 100 100 20 0
ROME 35 29 43 29 / 100 100 20 5
PEACHTREE CITY 34 27 43 30 / 100 100 20 0
VIDALIA 35 31 48 35 / 100 100 20 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MADISON...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PEACH...PIKE...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALIAFERRO...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WILKES...WILKINSON.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...HARRIS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...
SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...FANNIN...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...
JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PICKENS...
POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TDP/BAKER
LONG TERM...BDL
AVIATION...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1130 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK UP THE EAST
COAST AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND PASS NEAR CAPE COD ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1130AM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING LOWER THAN FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO LOWER DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE.
830AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TREND FROM LATEST OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES. A COLD START THIS MORNING MAY BE SLOW TO WARM UP AT
FIRST. BUT EVENTUALLY 20S WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
630AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH VERY COLD
CONDITIONS. A FRESH SNOWPACK...THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TO WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND DEW POINTS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST FOR IMPROVED SKY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS FELL TO 20 BELOW OVER
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH OUR VERY DRY AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW COVER.
EXPECT READING TO REBOUND QUICKLY TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SLOWLY EASING OFF THE COASTLINE.
RELIED HEAVILY ON THE NAM12 FOR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS STRENGTHENING STORM HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE TRACK CONTINUES
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. INITIALLY...THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTER SOME
INITIALLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE COLUMN EARLY.
THIS WESTWARD SHIFT MAY ALLOW A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR TO
REACH THE COASTLINE...BRINGING SLEET AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF RAIN
TO THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO EASE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A PERIOD THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE EURO/GFS FOR QPF.
RAN THE WIND EFFECTS TOOL TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS. THE SNOWFALL MAX WILL MOST LIKELY END UP OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COMPLEX COASTAL LOW WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A FIRST
SHOT OF HEAVY WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING. AS THE DEEPENING CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...
ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CHANGEOVER THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO A MIX OF SLEET AT TIMES OVER COASTAL AND
SOME ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AND WILL PUT A LIMIT ON SNOWFALL
TOTALS. OVERALL PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENT. ALL
MODELS AGREE ON OVER 1.0+ OF QPF WITH SOME APPROACHING CLOSER TO
2.0 INCHES OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST QPF IS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT AND
BEST ENHANCEMENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUT DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE
STAYING ALL SNOW AND HIGHER RATIOS HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW SYSTEM WILL
PLAY OUT AND CONSIDERING ITS LATE 3RD AND INTO 4TH PERIODS OF OUR
FORECAST WE HAVE OPTED KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THRU ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND MAY
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AND LIFR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN HEAVY SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME MIX OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
THEN BECOMING VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR ON
SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. VFR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
TO A GALE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS...AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE THE LOW PASSES THRU THE
GULF OF MAINE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW EXITS QUICKLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ018-019-023-024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-025>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ003>010-013-014.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1252 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM IS THE LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEN LATER TONIGHT THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MORE
WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD EXIT THE CWA
AROUND 15Z. THIS TIMING MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND THE
06Z HOPWRF...ALONG WITH THE 06Z NAMWRF. THIS WILL LEAVE AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SOME WIND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST CWA FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES MOVE
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN DIFFICULT WITH
RATHER STRONG CAA PATTERN THIS MORNING. SHOULD DROP OFF TO AROUND
ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE MAKING SOME MEAGER
RECOVERY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE SNOW EXIT WITH CLOUDS
FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS MOST AREAS.
LATER TONIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE 00Z-06Z OUT
WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z THU.
THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
AFTER 03Z AS MODELS DO INDICATE RATHER QUICK MOISTENING BECAUSE OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SPREADS RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA AFTER 06Z AND WE SHOULD SEE DECENT LIGHT SNOW AGAIN...WITH AN
INCH OR SO THROUGH 12Z THU. WINDS WILL BECOME A FACTOR IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS. INSERTED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DURING THE NIGHT
OVER THE WESTERN AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE EVENING AGAIN...AND RISE THROUGH THE 20S OVER THE WEST THROUGH
12Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CIRCA 995MB STRADDLING THE INTERSECTION OF LK
SUPERIOR/MN/WI ON THURSDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY SEE WRAP-AROUND
SNOW UNTIL AROUND 18Z GENERALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE ENDING OVER WEST CENTRAL MN....NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST...SO HAVE REMOVED SNOW CHANCES
FROM ALL BUT FAR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
FRIDAY TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID TEENS...BUT
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WAVE
WILL YIELD SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. IN
FACT...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE
OF A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THIS WAVE ON SATURDAY...SO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS/20S.
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014
THE SHORT TERM PROBLEM IS DETERMINING HOW FAST TO CLEAR THE MVFR
CEILINGS OUT OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. SO FAR THE WEAK WINDS
HAVE KEPT THE CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH. IT`S STILL POSSIBLE THEY COULD
LINGER EVEN LONGER THAN WHAT`S CURRENTLY IN THE TAF. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW ON SPECIFIC TIMING. BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THE SNOW WILL THEN MOVE IN LATE
TONIGHT...AND AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END...STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL
FORM. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MN.
KMSP...
GETTING A HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF GETTING ABOVE 1700 FT CEILINGS
HAS BEEN TOUGH. THE WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE IN CLEARING THE
STRATUS OUT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...BUT WE ARE LIKELY STILL A BIT TOO FAST
IN CLEARING THINGS OUT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. N WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI...VFR. N WIND AROUND 5 KT BCMG W.
FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS PSBL LATE. CHC -SN. S WIND 10-15 KT.
SAT...MVFR CONDS PSBL. CHC -SN. S WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING N.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014
Very fast northwest flow aloft will dominate the upper flow west of
the Mississippi River through Saturday. There will be no fewer than
3 clipper type systems which will be embedded within this flow and
will pass close or through the CWA during this period. And the long
awaited thaw, which normally comes in January, will finally arrive.
In the very short term a shortwave trough will exit the CWA this
evening on its way towards enhancing the winter storm which is
ongoing over the southeastern U.S. A weak cold front currently over
northwest MO will likely fall apart over the CWA tonight. This will
present a forecast challenge as a band of low clouds has followed
the passage of this front. With very weak winds behind the front
plus some residual moisture from today`s snowmelt it`s possible
these low clouds will linger well into the night...and thus keep
temperatures from falling too far.
First in the series of clipper systems will pass through the Dakotas
and MN tonight/Thursday. Pressure falls east of the Rockies will
allow moderately strong warm air advection to spread through the
region tomorrow and allow above freezing temperatures. The extensive
and deep snow cover plus increasing high level clouds will temper
the warmup but highs in the 40s seem reasonable for most.
A stronger system will track further south Thursday night and Friday
and bring a good chance for precipitation to at least the northeast
half of the CWA. Models are all on the same page but with some
timing differences. The combination of an increasing nw-se oriented
baroclinic zone over the CWA with a deepening upper system justifies
increasing PoPs this area with measurable snowfall likely. Have gone
conservative on snow amounts with this package but one could argue
for somewhat higher amounts due to the strength of the warm air
advection. The frontal boundary associated with this system will
likely pass through the CWA on Friday and knock temperatures back
down below seasonal averages.
The third clipper system will arrive for the start of the weekend
but pass further north than Fridays system. Another surge of warm
air advection south of this upper system will result in a warm front
lifting northeast through the CWA during the day. Should be able to
wring out some elevated precipitation northeast of this boundary
with most of the precipitation falling north and east of the CWA.
Most favorable region in the CWA for chance PoPs will be over the
northeastern counties with snow the most likely precipitation type.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014
Conditions continue to look favorable for a period of warm weather
for our section of the country. The break down of the ridge over the
West Coast recently will allow a more zonal like flow to develop
across the nation during this period. While significant troughs are
still moving through the adjusted flow, the Polar express that has
been feeding the center of the country with Arctic air will take some
time off. Therefore, the warming trend that is beginning this week
will persist into next week, with the occasional dip in temperatures
as fast moving shortwave troughs zip through the flattened flow
across the nation.
Confidence in the overall upward trend in temperatures through next
week is rather high, though the specifics of those warmer
temperatures will be very hard to forecast with precision due to the
melting snow pack. This may introduce significant errors in forecast
highs for late in the weekend and early next work week. So,
confidence in above freezing, snow melting, weather is high with
readings ranging through the 40s and 50s for much of the next work
week, with a mid week appearance of 60s possible as advertised
850mb temperatures stay above zero. However, as a cautionary tail
that winter isn`t done yet, current models also advertise a return
of the highly amplified pattern just past the following weekend,
with a return of the cold Arctic air.
Otherwise, one of the troughs moving through will arrive in our
area Monday, and with the expectation of above freezing temperatures
current thoughts are that we might have some rain to start the next
work week. Rainfall amounts wont be very high however owing to poor
moisture from the Gulf, but every little bit will help.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
Upstream band of MVFR ceilings stretching from southern MN through
central KS have been slow to move into northwest MO. RAP has
performed the best in handling these cloud trends. Still expect MVFR
ceilings to spread through northwest and west central MO and eastern
KS later this evening. A weak cold front will precede the arrival of
these clouds with a weakening area of high pressure in its wake. The
weak post frontal wind field plus moisture from the melting of the
snow pack causes some concern as to how long will the MVFR ceilings
linger. Current thinking is that once they arrive they will be slow
to clear. Will push their departure time back to around midnight with
the possibility the MVFR ceilings could linger through the entire
night. May not be able to address that until after sunset to see how
the cloud band responds.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions on Thursday with increasing south-
southwest winds.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1148 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
Quick update to increase PoPs near the MO/IA border where snow
showers have formed resulting in quick snow-bursts which drop
visibilities down to less than a mile. A dusting...one to two tenths
of an inch...of snow is likely with these snow showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
Forecast remains on track with only minor updates in this package.
An upper trough will move through the region today, with a
relatively unimpressive short period for light precipitation. A
brief window exists with sufficient vertical saturation and weak
ascent for a couple hours of light snow, primarily across far
northern Missouri. With limited moisture and the short duration,
overall snowfall amounts will be light, with less than one-half inch
over far northern Missouri. Otherwise, temperatures will gradually
moderate today into Thursday. Highs today may finally flirt with the
freezing mark in Kansas City, with temperatures reaching the lower
to middle 40s by Thursday afternoon with ample sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
Increasing temperatures are still the main story for the long-range
forecast period as longwave ridging transitions into the central
CONUS during the weekend and into early next week. A cold front will
sweep through the area early Friday morning, knocking temperatures
down just a bit from Thursday, but warming will be fairly continual
for Saturday through at least middle next week. Highs by early next
week should be several degrees above normal, potentially reaching
the mid 50s on Tuesday.
There will be a few slight chances of snow for: 1) late Thursday
night into early Friday morning as a shortwave trough cuts through
the CWA, and 2) Saturday morning into the afternoon as another
clipper system dips into far northeast Missouri. Snow amounts from
both of these systems will be light, due to limited moisture and the
location of better forcing to our north. Light rain showers are also
possible late Sunday night through Monday as a slightly stronger
shortwave trough lifts out of the central Plains, but low moisture
availability will again limit potential rainfall accumulations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
Upstream band of MVFR ceilings stretching from southern MN through
central KS have been slow to move into northwest MO. RAP has
performed the best in handling these cloud trends. Still expect MVFR
ceilings to spread through northwest and west central MO and eastern
KS later this evening. A weak cold front will precede the arrival of
these clouds with a weakening area of high pressure in its wake. The
weak post frontal wind field plus moisture from the melting of the
snow pack causes some concern as to how long will the MVFR ceilings
linger. Current thinking is that once they arrive they will be slow
to clear. Will push their departure time back to around midnight with
the possibility the MVFR ceilings could linger through the entire
night. May not be able to address that until after sunset to see how
the cloud band responds.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions on Thursday with increasing south-
southwest winds.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
322 PM MST WED FEB 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY THANKS TO A STRONG
MID LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WOUND UP OVER NE MONTANA HELPED PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA COMBINED WITH 700MB FLOW AROUND
70 KTS. THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS HAVE WORKED OUT WELL THROUGH THE DAY.
LIVINGSTON HAS GUSTED AS HIGH AS 76 MPH...63 MPH AT JUDITH GAP AND
62 MPH AT BIG TIMBER. SUSTAINED WINDS HIT AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES
ACROSS THE WEST. IN ADDITION...SOME APPARENT MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION
OVER THE BIG HORNS PRODUCED WINDS GUSTING UP TO 75 MPH AT DAYTON
IN SHERIDAN COUNTY OF WYOMING. WE TYPICALLY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW
OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY HIT THE SHERIDAN AREA AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE PRESSURE RISES WORK INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...WILL ADD A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SHERIDAN THROUGH 8 PM. THE REST OF OUR
HIGHLIGHTS GO UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS
DO WE NEED TO EXTEND THEM INTO THURSDAY. THE RAP MODEL HAS
PRESSURE RISES DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA JUST AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO
DIMINISH BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. HOWEVER...PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR
AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. DATA FROM THE NAM SUGGEST PARAMETERS FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN AT BIG TIMBER BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...BUT LIVINGSTON WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG.
THEREFORE...OUR PLAN IS TO HOLD ON TO THE HIGHLIGHTS AS THEY ARE
NOW...AND ADVISE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS TO CONSIDER ADVISORY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR BIG TIMBER TOMORROW AND PERHAPS DOWNGRADING OR
RE-ISSUING LIVINGSTON/NYE AS AN ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING
LIKE TODAYS AS THE THREAT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME DECENT SNOWFALL FELL IN THE COOKE
CITY VICINITY TODAY WITH UP TO 8 INCHES AT THE FISHER CREEK
SNOTEL. A LITTLE MORE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT THE NEXT
WAVE TO IMPACT THE HIGH COUNTRY COMES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WHEN ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES MAY PILE UP ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
ANOTHER GOOD WAVE WILL HIT THE HIGH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
PLEASE NOTE THE AVALANCHE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COOKE
CITY AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.
GOOD MIXING TOMORROW SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH PACIFIC ENERGY LATE
SAT/SUN BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AND SCATTERED
LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SUN AFTN
INTO EVENING PERIOD AS MAIN TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH. AS WITH EACH
OF THE SHORTWAVES THIS WEEK...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
PRE-FRONTAL GAP WINDS FOLLOWED BY SOME POST-FRONTAL WIND. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE GAP AREAS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SAT NITE. TEMPS SAT/SUN WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S...WITH SAT OFFERING THE WARMER AIRMASS BUT SUN THE
BETTER MIXED DAY.
TROF DIGGING OFF THE PAC COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY WX MON/TUE. SHOULD POINT OUT THAT
TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND KEEP HEIGHTS ON THE
ORDER OF 550DAM OVER OUR REGION...AND AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL
DOWNSLOPE WARMING DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SNOW COVER
SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SHOULD
SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WITH TUE BEING THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS. HAVE STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE HERE.
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE GAP WIND POTENTIAL...BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO 50-55
KTS AND A TIGHT SFC GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
GAP AREAS...IE LIVINGSTON TO NYE. HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
AREAS TO SHOW GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD THAT PAC TROF WILL MOVE INLAND AND BEGIN
TO IMPACT OUR AREA TUE NITE OR WED...THOUGH DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN...AS YOU WOULD EXPECT AT DAYS 7/8. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS BROADBRUSHED TUE NITE AND WED...HIGHEST OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL TAKE A STEP DOWN BUT COLDER CANADIAN AIR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THU/FRI.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS. EXPECT GUSTS OF 50-60 KTS AT KLVM...
40-50 KTS AT K3HT...AND 30-40 KTS AS FAR EAST AS KBIL AND KSHR.
WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW THOUGH WITH GUSTS NOT QUITE AS HIGH. OTHERWISE...
PCPN OVER THE MTNS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. ANOTHER PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE MTN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.
JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/048 028/043 031/045 037/049 032/049 037/052 031/042
12/W 12/W 31/B 23/W 20/N 00/B 12/W
LVM 037/052 032/046 031/051 040/049 033/050 037/052 031/046
23/W 14/W 32/W 25/W 21/N 11/N 23/W
HDN 027/048 026/045 029/048 031/052 028/052 031/053 032/045
14/W 14/W 31/B 13/W 20/U 00/B 12/W
MLS 022/042 024/040 025/043 029/048 028/047 030/049 034/043
14/W 12/W 50/U 23/W 10/U 00/B 12/W
4BQ 029/045 025/045 027/047 030/052 028/052 029/055 034/047
13/W 11/B 40/B 13/W 30/U 00/U 02/W
BHK 019/036 021/038 022/039 025/045 024/043 029/046 028/044
16/W 21/B 50/U 12/W 10/U 00/U 01/B
SHR 030/046 025/044 027/049 030/052 024/050 027/054 029/046
12/W 11/B 30/B 14/W 40/U 00/B 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 28-63-65-66.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
41.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
ZONE 99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
512 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY EARLY FRIDAY. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 PM UPDATE...SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...NOT HAVING MOVED TOO
MUCH SINCE LAST UPDATE AND NOW BEING CENTERED OVER PANAMA CITY FL.
WARM NOSE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWFA...WITH MIXED PTYPES NOW
EVIDENT FROM OBS AND DUAL POL ANALYSIS MORE OR LESS UP TO I-85
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN ACTIVITY IN THE SAME
AREA...APPARENTLY DUE TO WEAKER WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WEDGE AS
NOTED ON 850MB RUC FIELDS. THE GRADIENT AT THIS LEVEL TIGHTENS AGAIN
BY 00Z AND PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN BY THAT TIME. NOTE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALSO MOVING THRU CENTRAL GA IN OUR DIRECTION PER
RADAR MOSAIC.
WRT PRECIP TYPES...18Z NAM BETTER REFLECTED EXTENT OF WARM NOSE AND
AREA OF SLEET/FZRA...JUDGING BY SPOTTER REPORTS AROUND 4 PM AND
THERMAL FIELDS OBTAINED FROM TOP DOWN TECHNIQUE WITH 18Z NAM AS
INPUT. THE RESULT IS FOR A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FZRA THRU THE EVENING
UP TO THE METRO AREAS ALONG I-85 WHICH LATER CHANGES BACK TO SNOW AS
THE SFC LOW PASSES.
AS OF 245 PM...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL
DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE
GA...SOURCED FROM 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL...LOWERING TO
1009 MB. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ANOTHER COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WEST TO AL. 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLVL JET...WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6Z. THE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH A POOL OF HIGH
PW...SHOWN ON THE BLENDED PW...SUPPORTING A SHIELD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL BANDS OF
-EPV WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE FORMATION OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS. A LARGE FIELD OF MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAKING 12Z
THURS. THE OVERLAP OF LLVL AND MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
THE GREATEST SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A VERY INTERESTING
DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND 18Z THURS...PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH OF QPF. THE MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS
FEATURE. I WILL NOD TO THE SPECTRAL MODELS AND CONTINUE POPS WELL
INTO THURS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LESSER QPF. OVERALL...ADDITIONAL QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.9 ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY.
PRECIP TYPE IS COMPLICATED BY SUSPECT ABSENCE OF ICE NUCLEI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE GFS AND NAM. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS
MOISTURE AND OVERALL COLD LLVL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...I BELIEVE THAT ICE NUCLEI WILL BE PRESENT.
HOWEVER...DOPPLER VELOCITY AND DUAL POL AGREE WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH DEVELOPING AN H85 WARM NOSE OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT. THE WARMING ALONG THE EASTERN TIER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...YIELDING A BLEND OF SLEET AND FZRA.
EVENTUALLY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY...AIDING DRYING FROM SW TO NE. POPS WILL DECREASE WITHIN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HOLDING ON THE LONGEST ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST
ACCUMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERLAP OF DEEP MOISTURE...SYNOPTIC
FORCING...AND POTENTIAL BANDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM...UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT THU NITE AS THE STRONG UPPER
LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. A RELATIVELY STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA SAT NITE.
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AGAIN ON SAT. AT THE SFC...EXPECT DRY BUT COLD
WX THU NITE...BUT PRECIP TO RETURN LATE FRI AS MOISTURE AND THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. THIS
PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRI EVENING THEN DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST PRECIP CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE WLY
UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND FORCING LOOK DEEP ENUF
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. TEMPS FALL ACROSS THE MTNS AS CAA KICKS IN LATE FRI INTO FRI
NITE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE TO SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD
APPROACH ADV LEVEL FRI NITE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ATTM. COULD BE SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER...
BUT THOSE WOULD END QUICKLY BEFORE NOON. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD FOR EACH PERIOD. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LINGERING SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EST WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER HEALTHY LOOKING H5 SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE FCST AREA WHILE A FAIRLY STEEP UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS LATER ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS RECOVERING A BIT ON MONDAY.
BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE WRT THE
PROGRESSION/APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE NEWER 12Z RUN
OF THE GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTH BY LATE
MON/EARLY TUES WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HRS SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE FEATURE. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT AFTER THE 2ND
SHORTWAVE PASSES...THE PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN OUT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF WEAK MESO
LOW JUST TO OUR WEST BY THE START OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BUT
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IF ANY. THE FEATURE DISSIPATES QUICKLY AND
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS BACK OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS THRU AT
LEAST MONDAY. THE GFS HAS THE NEXT FRONT MOVING THRU LATE MON/EARLY
TUES BUT THE ECMWF FROPA IS ABOUT 24 HRS LATER. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FCST WITH MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUN OVER PORTIONS OF NW HALF OF THE CWFA AND
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE
STRONGER...MORE MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS SHOULD STEADILY
WARM THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY DAYS 6
AND 7.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 1 PM KGSP AND TCLT RADARS INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW LIFTING NORTH SOUTH OF THE CLT METRO AREAS. THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE INTENSE BAND WILL LIKELY REACH THE CLT TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT
HALF HOUR...REMAINING UNTIL 3 PM. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE 1.5 INCHES
PER HOUR. THE SNOW SHOULD REDUCE VIS TO 1/4 MILE IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINAL IN
THE WAKE OF THE BAND...REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A PERIOD
OF SLEET AND FZRA IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15
GUSTING TO THE MID 20 KTS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. IFR VIS WITH MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW AND
SLEET. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 15 GUSTING TO THE MID 20 KTS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS
DEVELOP DURING LATE THU MORNING.
OUTLOOK...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...AND
MAY BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS/PRECIP TO KAVL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
22-04Z 04-10Z 10-16Z 16-22Z
KCLT MED 69% MED 63% MED 70% HIGH 88%
KGSP MED 67% MED 62% MED 69% MED 76%
KAVL MED 70% MED 77% MED 77% MED 79%
KHKY MED 70% LOW 58% MED 60% MED 75%
KGMU MED 70% MED 62% MED 70% LOW 58%
KAND MED 63% MED 69% MED 69% MED 74%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY FEB 12TH...
AVL...2.8 IN 2010
CLT...5.1 IN 1899
GSP...5.0 IN 1895
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014-
019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1153 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
PERIOD OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND THE HRRR AND RAP...WENT AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ENDING
TIMING A BIT. THINKING SNOW MOVES OUT OF SIOUX FALLS RIGHT AROUND
12Z...AND EXITS NORTHWEST IOWA CLOSER TO 14Z OR 15Z. STILL LOOKING
AT AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING TWO INCHES.
SNOW WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND MAY STILL BE IMPACTING THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS...INTERSTATE 90 EAST OF
SIOUX FALLS AND NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...SO USE
CAUTION IF TRAVELING IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING A QUICK EVENING DROP IN TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP. THUS DID LOWER LOWS IN THE
EAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS LIKELY. HOWEVER WILL THEN SEE
RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE...WITH 20S AND 30S COMMON BY
MORNING. BEST FORCING WITH THIS WAVE STILL LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS
WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. 925 MB WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND 25 TO 35 KTS OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA. THUS SHOULD BE A BREEZY ONE AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
GUSTING TO 40 MPH SEEM LIKELY. WITH THE RECENT SNOW...AM WORRIED
ABOUT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SO WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW INTO THE GRIDS. QUESTION
BECOMES WHETHER WE WILL NEED A HEADLINE. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BUT THE ADDITIONAL NEW SNOW MAY HELP MAKE
THINGS A BIT WORSE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THINGS AND DECIDE IF ANY WINTER HEADLINES FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE BUT MODELS NOW
COMING BACK AROUND TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR. THURSDAY HAS BEEN A TOUGH DECISION ALL ALONG WITH VERY STANDARD
DEVIATIONS IN THE MODELS SO WILL TEMPER THE COLDER SURGE AND WHAT
WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER WINDS WITH SOME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER. BEHIND THIS COLD SURGE IS A DECENT
LITTLE WAVE AND EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION. BACKED OFF ON THE THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION
OR SLEET AS THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD BE IN THE COLDER AIR AND
NOW WITH THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER COLD AIR THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IS NOT
AS PREVALENT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH HOWEVER AS STATED ABOVE AS
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT FLAKY WITH THIS COLD SURGE.
THE COLD AIR LOCKS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WITH THE LOW
LEVELS JUST A BIT COLDER THIS GO AROUND DROPPED LOWS AND HIGHS A
TOUCH.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED
ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WHAT SHOULD MAINLY BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE ON
SATURDAY INCREASED POPS JUST A TOUCH AND DROPPED HIGHS DOWN JUST A
LITTLE. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL STRONG AS THE MODELS IN THIS FAIRLY FAST
FLOW AND SOMEWHAT TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ENVIRONMENT HAS A LOT OF
ROOM FOR ERROR. AFTER THIS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 40S OR BETTER.
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE HARDEST TIME WITH A LITTLE MORE
SNOW COVER. COOLER AIR SURGES IN ON MONDAY BUT MIXY CONDITIONS
SHOULD STILL YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LITTLE MODEL
DISCREPANCY COMES INTO PLAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE
STUBBORN ON LOCKING IN SOME COLDER AIR BUT IT HAS HAS OVERDONE THIS
A BIT LATELY SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
CURRENT CEILINGS NEAR 1K FEET...WITH SOME BELOW 1K FEET...IN
NORTHWEST IA AND PART OF SOUTHWEST MN SHOULD BE SLOWLY ERODED THE
REST OF THE DAY BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL GO FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THEN OUT OF SUX
TAF SITE AS THEY ARE JUST EAST OF THERE NOW...AND THEY SHOULD BE
OUT OF NORTHWEST IA BY 13/00Z. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH 13/03Z. FROM 13/03Z TO 13/12Z...STRONG
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE LOCAL VISIBILITIES 1-3SM IN
BLOWING SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF FSD...MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE
BUFFALO RIDGE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN. THESE WINDS MAY GUST TO OVER
30 KTS. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS STRONG AFTER 12Z AS THEY BECOME
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND THE BLOWING SNOW SHOULD
ABATE...LEAVING VFR AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1131 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. ALSO ADDED ALL WEATHER TYPES.
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WITHIN A
DEFORMATION BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. A STOUT WARM LAYER BETWEEN 5-6C WAS NOTED FROM
12Z BMX AND JAN SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING AND THIS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO WORK IN ALOFT ABOVE A VERY COLD NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO MIDDLE
20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING COLDER
AIR ALOFT TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE SNOW
TO MIX IN BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A WINTRY
MIX OF ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. DUE TO THE INCREASED ICE POTENTIAL...HAVE INCREASED
ICE TOTALS TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE WINTER
STORM WARNING AREA AND AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS ALL WARNING
AND ADVISORY AREAS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ICY
ROADS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...HAZARDS...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE
ALL UPDATED. PLEASE REMEMBER TO PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF SNOW OR
ICE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.
JLH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/
IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD
BETTER CHANCES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY AREAS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. BELIEVE THIS THREAT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL CARRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-40 AND TO THE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SHARP BACK WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME PRONOUNCED BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE MEMPHIS METRO
LIKELY TO BE IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE. THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHTER IN QPF...THAN THE GFS AND EURO...WITH THE NAM KEEPING
THE DEFINED BACK EDGE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A MORE
HRRR/EURO/GFS BLEND WITH QPF AMOUNTS TIMING...AND LOCATION OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THESE MODELS INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE 8 AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA. FORTUNATELY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...SO OVERALL WIND CHILLS WILL
BE MILD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO TODAY...AS THEY
MAY HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...HOLDING BACK AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT CAN ACCUMULATE.
BASED ON HOPEFUL STORM REPORTS A FEW COUNTIES IN THE WARNING MAY
HAVE TO BE DROPPED TO AN ADVISORY.
THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AFTER 5PM...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES BY 9PM. PARTIALLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FALLEN SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SEND CLIPPER DISTURBANCES
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WILL SWING THROUGH ON
FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS
LIGHT...BUT IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES
WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...AS A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL GENERATE A SURFACE
LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...TRACKING IT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY. STRONGER WAA AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S WITH WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ON
MONDAY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WHICH MAY GENERATE A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER OUR
SOUTH AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE SWINGS MORE NEUTRAL.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KJBR FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CURRENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER TAFS SITES WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS
RETURNING TO VFR LEVEL LATE TONIGHT. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 30 24 47 34 / 80 0 10 10
MKL 30 19 46 32 / 80 0 10 10
JBR 29 20 42 30 / 30 0 10 10
TUP 32 24 48 32 / 100 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-
CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-
BENTON MS-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-
TISHOMINGO-UNION.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON
TN-CARROLL-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1037 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO RAISE TEMPS
ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION
AS THEY HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED EXPECTED HIGHS. STILL EXPECTING
TEMPS TO LOWER TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 950 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/
UPDATE...
PER REPORTS RECEIVED OF SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING ACCUMULATING
ICE DUE TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT TO REFLECT SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION THRU TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/
UPDATE...12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWED A 1 TO 2 DEG WARM NOSE BTWN
925MB AND 850MB AND, BASED ON THE REPORTS OF IP AND ZR COMING IN
FROM OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BELIEVE THIS SAME TEMP PROFILE IS
PROBABLY VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER MORE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE AS WELL. THE EXACT FUTURE EXISTENCE OF
THIS WARM NOSE, THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IS
FAR FROM CERTAIN. AM NOT YET READY TO INVEST VERY MUCH IN THE THE
CONTINUED 925 WARMING FORECAST BY THE RUC THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND
WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THAT MILD, BUT
VERY DRY, LAYER WILL EVENTUALLY COOL THE LAYER CLOSER TO THE
FREEZING MARK. IN ADDITION, AFTER 925 FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS GEORGIA, DO NOT
KNOW EXACTLY WHY 925 TEMPS WOULD WARM. THUS, HAVE ADDED A WINTRY
MIX INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING, BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
FURTHER JUDGE THINGS TO SEE HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IF, INDEED, THE WARM NOSE PERSISTS LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, BLV AMENDING PRECIP
TYPE FOR THIS MORNING IS A PRUDENT AND SUFFICIENT STEP FOR NOW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-
032>034-065-066-077>080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TNZ061>064-075-093>095.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/
SHORT TERM...
WARMER TODAY BY ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS...THIS
DESPITE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE TO NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE RETURNING
TO THE SRN PLAINS...BUT ALSO TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
AS MUCH OF THE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST
AREA IS REPLACED BY FLAT RIDGING. STILL...WILL FAVOR LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE FOR AFTN HIGHS. SFC WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND SW OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE GIVEN RECENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION.
OF NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM IS SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. HRRR SHOWING SOME SMALL PATCHES OF LOWER
VSBY BTWN 06Z AND 18Z. MESONET OBS SHOWING SOME SCATTERED DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO BUT WITH VEERING WINDS TO THE SW SHOULD SEE
SOME MODEST DRY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OF INTEREST...SO ATTM NOT
ANTICIPATING THE NEED TO INSERT A MENTION INTO THE FCST.
LONG TERM...
A QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY MILD PATTERN IS STILL A GUARANTEE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. EVEN THE HANDFUL OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL
SLIDE INTO THE REGION /COURTESY OF SHALLOW AND TROUGHS GRAZING THE
REGION/ SHOW NO ABILITY TO PUSH OUR HIGHS BLO CLIMO OR EVEN
GENERATE ANY LOW CLOUDS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE FIRST OF THESE
FRONTS ARRIVES FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND CONDITIONAL FROPA SAT NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A THIRD COME MONDAY. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS JUST
HOW MUCH TEMPS WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. FEEL MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN BEING TOO GENEROUS WITH
DEWPOINTS /PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND/...SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
QUITE A BIT WHICH RESULTS IN VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. ADD TO
THIS 15-20 MPH WINDS AND A FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE
SETTING FOOT IN THE RING. ONLY BY MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK DOES THIS
ZONAL FLOW REGIME BEGIN AMPLIFYING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IN THE FORM
OF L/W TROUGHING TO OUR W-NW WHICH HINTS AT INCREASINGLY WINDY
AND DUSTY CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS. SOME GOMEX MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD BY THIS TIME...THOUGH SHOULD BE SWEPT TO OUR
EAST UNLESS THE SWLY UPPER FLOW CAN TREND MORE MERIDIONAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 31 71 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 50 30 68 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 52 30 71 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 56 32 73 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 55 31 73 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 57 32 72 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 57 33 74 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 49 27 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 52 31 70 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 50 30 68 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
AT 3 AM...TWO AREAS OF SNOW WAS SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 900 TO
800 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN AREA OF SNOW WHICH
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE TWIN CITIES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 800 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE 12.00Z AND
12.06Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TWO AREAS WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TOGETHER. WITH THE NMM...ARW...AND RAP HAVING SIMILAR TIMING
TRENDED THE SNOW CHANCES TOWARD THEM. WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
LOOKING A BIT LOWER...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED TO AROUND AN
INCH.
FOR LATE TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION OCCURS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS.
SINCE THIS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS...RAISED THE
SNOW CHANCES UP SOME MORE. WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES...ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE NAM CONTINUES TO KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM... AND ECMWF HAS ITS
PRECIPITATION MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINKING THAT THE NAM IS
TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS SNOW AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE TOO FAR
SOUTH...SO WENT WITH A BLEND. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE UP TO AN
INCH.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 12.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
IOWA. THIS TRACK IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN IT WAS IN 11.00Z
AND 11.12Z MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE LOOKS MUCH
STRONGER THAN IT DID IN EITHER OF THESE RUNS...SO IT MAKES SENSE
THAT THERE WOULD BE A SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN ITS TRACK. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...TOOK OUT THE SNOW CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...
AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED NEAR
150 DEGREE WEST LONGITUDE. AS THIS OCCURS...OUR WINDS SHIFT A BIT
MORE NORTHERLY ALLOWING COLD AIR FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -8 TO -12C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
IN ADDITION WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE ON SATURDAY...
THE POLAR JET HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DECREASED THE SNOW CHANCES FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ABOUT 150 MB OF DENDRITIC GROWTH BETWEEN 700 AND 550 MB. THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO AROUND 18:1. WITH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RUNNING BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.15 INCHES...
EXPECT SNOW TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS AN OPEN WAVE
MOVING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION...THUS A WEAK LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF INITIALLY HAS A SIMILAR
UPPER WAVE STRUCTURE INITIALLY. HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
STRONG WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS RESULT IN STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS WEST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
MORNING SNOW IMPACTS HAVE EXITED KRST/KLSE AREA WITH THE MAIN
CHALLENGE IN THE PERIOD FOCUSED ON CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
NORTHERN IOWA...AND THIS HAS SLOWLY MOVED EAST. A 1000 TO 1500 FT
STRATUS DECK HAS BECOME TRAPPED IN AN INVERSION ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED MOTIONLESS THIS MORNING.
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD WILL BECOME BAGGY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY MIXING TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDS WITH A DECENT CLEARING LINE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE NEAR TERM AND HI-RES
MODELS...KEEPING THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR CLOUDS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK UP IN EARNEST OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SUSTAINED 20 KT WINDS
AT KRST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
QUICK HITTING SHOT OF SNOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z AT BOTH TAF SITES.
HAVE INTRODUCED A MVFR RESTRICTION AT THIS POINT...AS THE FAST
MOVEMENT ALONG WITH THE BETTER FORCING TO THE NORTH SHOULD LIMIT
CHANCES OF IFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AT KRST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW GIVEN TODAY/S SNOW AND FORECAST SNOW TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1102 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
.UPDATE...KMKX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW LIGHT SNOW HAS
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES
HAVE NOT BEEN HINDERED TOO MUCH BY THE LIGHT SNOW...WITH LOWEST
VIS BEING REPORTED AT 1 TO 1 3/4 MILES AT 10 AM...THAT IS
INDICATIVE OF A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR OR LESS SNOWFALL RATES. MAIN
CONCERN IS POPS/WX IN THE ONGOING TODAY PERIOD AND TIMING THE SNOW
AS IT EXITS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RESOLUTION DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM TO VARY IN REGARD TO
HOW IT HANDLES THE SNOW AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
BE UNDERDOING ITS COVERAGE THE MOST...ESPECIALLY EARLIER
RUNS...WITH TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. VARIOUS FLAVORS
OF WRF SEEM TO HANDLE THE CURRENT LIGHT SNOW BETTER.
AS SUCH...LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE SOLUTIONS OF WRF THAT WERE
AVAILABLE AND THE CONSENSUS SHORT MODEL BLEND...ESPECIALLY FOR
WHEN THE SNOW EXITS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY WHILE PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 6 PM...THOUGH SNOW MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE GUIDANCE AND SFC OBS/RADAR TRENDS...POPS WERE INCREASED
EARLIER THIS MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS AND QPF WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY
AS WELL. OTHERWISE...TEMPS...WINDS...AND SKIES WERE ON TRACK AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.
ET
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END AT MADISON BETWEEN 19Z AND
20Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EASTERN SITES ENDING BETWEEN 22Z
WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. THE LAST FEW HOURS AT THE EASTERN
SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED AT
MADISON...WITH AROUND 1/2 INCH AT THE EASTERN SITES. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE UP TO 1/4 INCH PER HOUR AT MADISON...LOWER AT THE
EASTERN SITES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT SOUTH
TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE INTO THURSDAY...AS A
FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 2000 TO 3000 FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS.
IF THE LIGHT SNOW OCCURS...APPEARS ANY ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE UP
TO 1/2 INCH OR SO AT THIS TIME.
WOOD
&&
.MARINE...FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD...TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ON THURSDAY. IT SHOULD THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD BRING
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY...VEERING WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING MOST OF THIS PERIOD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
ICE COVERED WATERS WILL LIMIT WAVE ACTION.
WOOD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS MORNING. 290 DEGREE KELVIN ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWS THE 700 MB LAYER MOISTENS WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 5 MB. HOWEVER THIS OCCURS IN A NARROW
BAND THAT SHRINKS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO THE UPWARD ISENTROPIC OMEGA IS RATHER WEAK AND THE AREA OF
WINDS THAT ARE PERPENDICULAR TO THE NIGHT CONTOURS OCCUR ALONG THE
TROUGH WHERE THE HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE SPACED FAIRLY FAR APART.
250 MB DIVERGENCE IS WEAK TODAY WITH WEAK UPWARD VELOCITY AT 700 MB
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 850/700 MB LAYER DOES
SATURATE BUT THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL WIND MAX OF 35 KNOTS OVER WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY THE TIME IT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THAT AREA IS ONLY 25 KNOTS AND IS
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION.
THEREFORE EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING BUT WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
SO...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...LOWERING POPS QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FAR
SOUTHEAST MAY NOT SEE MUCH. SHOULD SEE AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE DELLS...MONTELLO AND FOND DU LAC...UP TO 1/2 INCH IN MILWAUKEE
AND A FEW TENTHS AT BEST IN KENOSHA.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES WITH THE BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION IN
THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN SURFACE/850 LOW CENTERS TRACK ACRS NRN WI
AND THE U.P. INFLUENCE OF 250 MILLIBAR JET DYNAMICS ARE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN...SO NOT AS FAVORABLE. HOWEVER THE 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX LOOKS FAIRLY POTENT. 850-700 MILLIBAR
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS MDT/STG. THE QPF IS HIGHER NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE SFC/850 LOW CENTERS...WITH AN AXIS OF LIGHTER QPF EXTENDING
SOUTH ACRS SRN WI WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION. THE NAM IS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTS A FEW
TENTHS WITH THIS QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. AGAIN...MAIN INFLUENCE TO
OUR NORTH.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
COLDER AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE/850 LOWS
SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ALLOWS THE NNW WINDS TO TAP
INTO THE COLDER 925 TEMPS OF -10 TO -14C.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
YET ANOTHER WAVE RIDES IN. THIS ONE TRACKS THROUGH IOWA INTO
ILLINOIS. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE GFS/ECMWF TO DRIFT THE QPF
MAX FURTHER SOUTHWEST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF ACROSS THE CWA. THE
00Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER WITH A MUCH STRONGER LOW AND FURTHER
NORTH INTO NRN ILLINOIS VERSUS THE WEAKER AND SKEWED SOUTH
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CWA...THOUGH AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THESE AMOUNTS STILL IN
QUESTION DUE TO SHIFTING MODEL SOLUTIONS.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. THERMAL TROUGH
AND LINGERING SURFACE/850 RIDGING GETS SHUNTED EAST WITH TIME AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA KICKS BACK IN. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
ON THE 850 WARMING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.
THE GFS SHOWS A VERY PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT WHISKS THROUGH HERE ON
MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS...AND THE GEM TENDS TO SIDE WITH
THIS...A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO TUESDAY WITH A MORE
DEVELOPED LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A MORE PROLONGED PRECIP
EVENT INTO TUESDAY. THE PROGS DO AGREE ON SOME PRECIP MONDAY WITH
WITH FAIRLY 850 TEMPS OF 1-3C...SO MIXY PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION ALLOWS THE TAPPING OF COLDER AIR FOR PRECIP
TO BECOME PURE SNOW MON NGT/TUE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS DRY WEATHER
WITH WARM ADVECTION GETTING UNDERWAY. PLENTY OF VARIATION AND
LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS SO WILL GO WITH ALLBLEND
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS AND
MVFR/IFR VSBYS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER SUNRISE.
THE BAND OF SNOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS.
SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR CIGS
EXPECTED.
MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEN DIMINISHING LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
A STRONG LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND HURON.
MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WIND DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET/WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR