Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/11/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

855 PM MST MON FEB 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS APPROACHING...OR
EVEN EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY EARLIER THIS EVENING SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION /PROBABLY SPRINKLES OR VIRGA/ TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THESE
SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS REMAINING.
MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER NOTED ON
SATELLITE ALTHOUGH TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGEST THE
LEADING EDGE HAS BEEN THINNING OUT.

FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...LOOK FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH AND
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL TURN OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE TROUGH AS WEAK DRY ADVECTION COMMENCES
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NAM AND RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW
INVERSION WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT /NO SURPRISE/ BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 25KTS AROUND 1500-1800FT AGL. NOT TALKING ABOUT
ANYTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY...BUT I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT IN THE EAST VALLEY FROM APACHE JUNCTION
THROUGH EAST MESA...AND NORTHWARD INTO SCOTTSDALE AND CAVE-CREEK
WHERE THE PBL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE
ALWAYS TOUGH CASES...IF WINDS CALM DOWN EVEN FOR AN HOUR OR
SO...TEMPS WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY. IF THEY REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR THESE LOCATIONS TO SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
INSTEAD OF LOW 50S.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE TO A EVEN WARMER REGIME IS STILL IN THE
CARDS...BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT THAT VERY STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD INLAND OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AS THE MAIN LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE CENTRAL US FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. BASICALLY ALL MODEL SUITES...AND ALL OF THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PUSH 500MB HEIGHTS AOA 582DM BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 19-21C RANGE OVER
SOUTHERN AZ AND SE CA BY THEN. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE ALSO KEEPING OUR SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN REMAINING AOA
250MB...LEADING TO NEARLY IDEAL DAYTIME MIXING AND INSOLATION
CONDITIONS...THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOWER DESERT HIGHS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO BREAK MANY DAILY
RECORDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME RECORDS FOR THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURE
ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY WEAKENS...BUT MOST LOWER DESERTS WILL STILL SEE HIGHS RISING
IN THE 80S EACH DAY...WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
LOW AT ALL SITES. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY CIGS BELOW 25KFT AT ANY POINT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL TAKE ON A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
OVERNIGHT AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND 15-20KTS OVERNIGHT
/ESPECIALLY AT KSDL/...OTHERWISE EXPECT THE USUAL DIURNAL
SPEEDS/DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR LATER THIS WEEK:

DATE PHOENIX YUMA
---- ------- ----
2/13 88 IN 1957 93 IN 1957
2/14 85 IN 1957 94 IN 1957
2/15 83 IN 1977 87 IN 1947
2/16 84 IN 1977 88 IN 1981

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES REACHING RECORD
LEVELS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL COMMONLY FALL INTO THE
TEENS...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH SOME AFTERNOON UPSLOPE BREEZINESS
POSSIBLE.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE

CA...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
CLIMATE...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1030 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THIS EVENING, PASSING OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY.
STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST MONDAY MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WEDNESDAY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, TRACKING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA AT LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AROUND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. CONTINUE TO LIKE THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PA. TIMING IN THE LATEST HRRR AND SPC 4KM
WRF INDICATE THE ONSET OF STEADIER PRECIP/SNOW TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA, WITH THE SPC WRF BEING THE
FASTER OF THE TWO. HIGHEST POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
CENTERED AROUND THE 21Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME, AND THIS LOOKS IN LINE
WITH LASTEST GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS, BUT MAX TEMPERATURES
LOOK ON TRACK.

MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND THE WEAK SURFACE INFLECTION IT HAS SPAWNED. EXPECT
TODAY TO BE FILLED WITH LOTS OF STRATOCU HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. A BLEND OF THE
MET/MAVMOS LOOKED GOOD THOUGH DID LIKE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV IN
SPOTS SO USED A HEAVIER WEIGHTING FOR HIGHS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO BACK ALL THE WAY AROUND
TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON.

LIKED THE TIMING OFF THE SREF AND NAM FOR POPS TODAY THOUGH DID
SPEED THEM UP A LITTLE JUST GIVEN HOW FLAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS AND
QUICKLY THE WAVE SHOULD PUSH THROUGH. THE OVERALL QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE DOWNWARD BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF NOTHING...
PROBABILISTICALLY SHOWING AT LEAST A TENTH IN MOST SPOTS WITH A
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE BETTER RATIOS, SOMEWHERE AROUND
12-14:1...BETTER RATIOS FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3-4 INCHES
FURTHER NORTH JUST GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND BETTER BANDING
POTENTIAL WITH THE WAVE PASSING OVERHEAD. EXPECTING LESS SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA WITH THE LACK OF QPF AND MARGINAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM TODAY, AND MOSTLY
SUB-ADVISORY AMOUNTS, WE DID NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DROPPING VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE AT TIMES, BUT FIGURED
THAT A COUPLE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS COULD HANDLE THIS AS WE
TRACK THE BANDS/SQUALLS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD RAPIDLY DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO CLEAR.
WINDS TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THE COLD AIR IS
A LITTLE SLOW TO ARRIVE...LOOKS LIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BETTER
OVERNIGHT MIXING DO NOT LOOK TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF
TOO MUCH, THOUGH THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP
WITH THE DECOUPLING PROCESS. USED A HEAVY BLEND OFF THE MAV FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOW-20S IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***RATHER COLD MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A POSSIBLE NOREASTER
EARLY THURSDAY***

500 MB: THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
GENERATE PRECIPITATION HERE FROM TIME TO TIME BEGINNING DURING MID
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THEN NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL
THURSDAY ONWARD.

AUTOMATED CONFIDENCE IMAGERY IS GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS 2M
TEMPS FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEREAFTER THE 00Z/9 GFS 2M TEMPERATURES
HAVE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AND SO CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE ECMWF HAS A SLIGHT COLD BIAS IN ITS 2 METER TEMPS AND NCEP ADAPTED
MOS TEMP GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA (SNOW-ICE COVER RELATED?). AM NOT
USING THE ECMWF 2M TEMPS NOR ITS MOS VERBATIM. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO
ACCURATELY HIGHLIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS VERY NICELY
(BETTER THAN THE GFS) BUT ON THOSE SAME NIGHTS..IF THERE IS WIND
IN THE HILLS...THE ECMWF IS THEN TOO COLD AND THE GFS APPEARS TO
BE MORE ACCURATE...AT LEAST RECENTLY.

THE DAILIES IN BRIEF BELOW...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COLD WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND 15 MPH TUESDAY. THE COLDEST READINGS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND OR JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH TO
THE TEENS IN THE FAR SOUTH. THE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE RECORDS
FOR THE DATE. THE WARMER 00Z/9 MET TEMPS WERE USED MONDAY...THE
COLDER MAV MONDAY NIGHT AND 50 50 BLEND OF NCEP MOS WAS USED TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHTS TEMP FCST IS CONTINUITY FROM THE DAYSHIFT YDY AS
THE GFS LOOKED TOO WARM.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AS ITS
PREDECESSOR CYCLES REMAINS CONSISTENT IN RACING A NOREASTER UP
THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GEFS IS NOW FASTER
AND WPC BOUGHT INTO THE THE FASTER SOLN AS DID WE. WHILE THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING...THE GREATER UNKNOWNS ARE
HOW MUCH SNOW AND RAIN. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL DETERMINE
THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES AND PTYPE. FOR NOW WE HAVE A MIXED
BAG AND YES...THERE IS A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
WHILE WE DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN...IT IS PART
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR THE MOST PART IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL
BE A FRONT END SNOW EVENT TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTN THURSDAY. WHILE WE MAY WISH MORE
DECISIVE INFORMATION...THE SOLUTIONS ARE TOO VARIED AND SO THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION WORDING. SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH COLD AIR IN
ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NW OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE TEMPERATURE FCST WEDNESDAY WAS CONTINUITY FROM YDYS FCST AND
THEN THE WED NIGHT FCST IS THE 0522Z/9 WPC GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH
THE 2M ECMWF TEMP FROM THE 00Z/9 RUN. THE ECMWF HAS THIS AS A
COASTAL HUGGER AND WARMER THAN ANY OTHER RELIABLE MODEL WE USE
FOR OUR AREA. WE EXPECT THE GFS TO CONTINUALLY DRIFT NW AND FASTER
WITH TIME AS DID THE 06Z/9 GFS SOLN WHICH NOW AT LEAST BRINGS QPF
INTO OUR AREA WED NIGHT AND THU... SNOW NW OF I95 AND SNOW TO RAIN
OR MIXED SE OF I95.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PROBABLY A QUIET INTERLUDE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE DEAL WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR NOW I THINK WE NEED TO CONCENTRATE ON THE WED NIGHT-THURSDAY EVENT
BEFORE LOOKING FOR ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND
FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER.

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF 5000 FOOT STRATOCU IS PUSHING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS VFR
DECK FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY WHILE A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST- NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE TO BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BY EVENING AND THERE COULD BE A COUPLE HOURS
OF MORE MODERATE SNOWFALL DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE
BEFORE QUICKLY JUMPING BACK UP TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST.

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CLIMB BACK TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS
THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. WINDS WILL BACK FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST
VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THE
CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KT
MONDAY AND 15 KT TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS TO START WITH A CHANCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE DAY AS SNOW SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
WIND MOSTLY EAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH A
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING. POSSIBLE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPING.

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS TODAY WITH
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND TURNING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FOR A BIT
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS, THOUGH IT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER IN
THE DELAWARE BAY AND OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AS THE NORTHWEST WINDS
FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. STRONGEST WIND EARLY IN THE DAY FOR WHAT
MAY BECOME ONLY A MARGINAL SCA EVENT.

MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 2O KNOTS. CHANCE
FREEZING SPRAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
BUT FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NW TO N WINDS.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DEPENDING UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY GALE
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NW LATE THURSDAY.

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THAT MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF
BEING WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF RECORD IF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED
WEDNESDAY MORNING FEBRUARY 12. RIGHT NOW WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS
TO REMAIN ABOVE THESE VALUES.

ABE -6 1979

RDG -4 1934

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

9 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT SLOWED DOWN/STALLED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BUILDING
DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A COOL NORTHERLY WINDFLOW WAS BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LATEST RUC 500MB
PROG HAS THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ADVANCING EAST DURING THE DAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING THAT
THE SKIES WERE CLEAR NORTH OF SOUTH BREVARD OSCEOLA AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTHERN PART OF BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA.

MORNING UPDATE WILL INCLUDE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND GRIDS AND TAKING
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHS DUE TO THE COOLER AIR MASS MOVING DOWN
THE PENINSULA.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD INTO THE REGION WL
PRODUCE DRYING ALONG WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON.
REASONABLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE IS EXPECTED
DUE TO IMPROVED SFC HEATING AFTER MORNING FOG AND SOME LOWER
CLOUDS BREAK. SLOWLY VEERING WINDS DURING AFTERNOON WL BRING A
SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS FOR HIGHS. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING A COOLER NIGHT WITH READINGS AVERAGING
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH SOME UPR 40S WEST OF I-4. SOME GROUND FOG WL
DEVELOP EARLY MON BY DAYBREAK...HOWEVER DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.

MON-MON NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE AND SKIES
MOSTLY SUNNY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY ALIGNING ITSELF EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND
THE NORTH GOMEX. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
WITH SPEEDS BELOW 10 MPH AS A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT UPPER 50S AND PERHAPS
LOWER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND BARRIER ISLANDS. WINDS WILL
FALL TO LIGHT OR CALM DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT ADD TO THE GRIDS/ZONES JUST YET.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
GULF AND WILL LIE NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK WED
MORNING. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
STILL LIE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST
FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GOMEX. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR CALM WINDS TUE
MORNING BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND THIS TREND GRADUALLY
WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TUE
EVENING WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 5 MPH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE GRADUAL
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP FOR
LATE OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO COVER FOR A STRAY SHOWER
POSSIBILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
DEEP SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TAPERING BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. HAVE ADDED 40 TO 50 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF STILL DISAGREE WITH
FEATURE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH AS THE SURFACE LOW RACES NORTHEAST UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHOWER
WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW LEAVING ABSENT THUNDER MENTION.
EXPECT SOUTHEAST EARLY MORNING WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST OR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.

HIGHS ON WED PRE-FRONTAL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80
DEGREES TO LOWER 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE FROM NEAR ORLANDO AND
SOUTHWARD. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY START TO INFILTRATE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH VERY LATE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH 60 DEGREE
READINGS SOUTH OF HERE EXPECTED.

THU-SAT...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON THU AS
THE LATEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILL
KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES FOR THU WITH MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING THE AREA STILL. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
DOMINATE ON THU. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES ON THU/FRI...ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT INTO SAT. WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST FRI AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THU GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
FRI-SAT WITH SEASONAL HIGHS FRI AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR SAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO.

.AVIATION...THE BKN-OVC VFR SKIES FROM KMLB SOUTH BECOME FEW-SCT IN
THE AFTERNOON. NO FOG ISSUES THIS MORNING JUST LIFR/IFR CEILINGS
THAT LIFTED AROUND 13Z.

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUOY 009 WAS
RECORDING NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 5 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO
NEARSHORE SCRIPPS BUOYS WERE RECORDING 2 TO 4 FEET. THE NORTHERLY
WIND PUSHING AGAINST THE GULF STREAM WILL GENERATE SEAS TO 6 FEET IN
AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
WATER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
MEASURED SEA HGHTS AT OUTER BUOYS ARE BELOW 6 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER COUNTERING WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WL LIKELY
PRODUCE HIGHER SEAS NEAR THE GULF STREAM THROUGH LATE MORNING. WL
KEEP MENTION OF CAUTION FOR THE GULFSTREAM IN THE MORNING PKG.
ELSEWHERE SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE NEAR WATERS AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING.

MON-THU...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUE AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GOMEX.
THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE ON WED INTO EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS THRU WED
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND SPEEDS 15-17 KTS WED AFTERNOON OFFSHORE...POTENTIALLY
INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS WED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS TO HOW STRONG THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WED OVERNIGHT INTO THU DUE TO POOR MODEL
CONSISTENCY HERE.

SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT INTO TUE...2-3 FT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING AGAIN
TO 3-5 FT WED AFTERNOON...4-6 FT WED NIGHT OFFSHORE AND POTENTIALLY
5-8 FT OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET INTO THU. AGAIN CONFIDENCE
IS A LITTLE LOW LATER IN THE PERIOD FOR THE HIGHER SEAS. AT LEAST
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS SEEM LIKELY AROUND THIS STORM SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY SCA CONDITIONS.

DRIER CONDITIONS MON-TUE...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WED AND
THU. SHOWERS MID-WEEK WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING AND FAIRLY QUICK. THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THAT LATER SHIFTS MAY ADD ISOLD THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR LATE WED AND EARLY THU.

.FIRE WEATHER...
MON...DRIER CONDITIONS ON MON MAY ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR A FEW
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWARD FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY.
DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE RATHER POOR DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 48 73 51 / 10 0 0 10
MCO 73 52 77 53 / 10 0 0 10
MLB 73 56 76 57 / 10 0 0 10
VRB 75 55 77 56 / 10 0 0 10
LEE 71 50 75 51 / 10 0 0 10
SFB 72 51 76 52 / 10 0 0 10
ORL 72 53 76 54 / 10 0 0 10
FPR 75 57 77 57 / 10 0 0 10

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

508 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

Models were in good agreement with moving an upper level
disturbance from Nevada to the central Rockies by late this
afternoon. This upper level disturbance will then cross the
central high plains early tonight. As this upper level disturbance
approaches mid level frontogenesis will improve along the 700mb
baroclinic zone. This improving mid level forcing along with a
moist upslope flow in the lower levels will likely result snow
redeveloping by late day west of highway 83. The 700mb baroclinic
zone is initially forecast to remain nearly stationary early this
evening as the upper level disturbance approaches the area from the
west. Given that this forcing is expected to remain nearly
stationary for 3-5 hours as upper level dynamics improve early
this evening the potential exists for a band of snow accumulations
of 2 to 3 inches. At this time however the exact location of where
this band of heavier snowfall will set up is unclear with each
model offering slightly different solution. At this time based on
the latest trend of the HRRR and RAP have decided to lean towards
the slightly further south solution and therefore will issue a
winter weather advisory for locations along south southwest of a
Dodge City to Garden City line.

The snow will taper off from west to east after midnight as the
upper level disturbance crosses western Kansas. low level moisture
and weak southeast winds may give rise to lingering low clouds and
possible areas of fog. Given expected cloud cover overnight will
stay close to the previous forecast for all but the west central
Kansas where the potential for some clearing towards daybreak
appears more likely.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

The mid to high level flow will remain fairly zonal through the
extended period, with embedded shortwave troughs bringing periodic
weak cold fronts through western Kansas. The main problem with the
temperature forecast is the effect of snow cover. Melting will be
a slow process, especially since ground temperatures are below
freezing. A gradual warming trend can be expected through Saturday
as the snow melt continues, with highs possibly reaching into the
60s or even low 70s by Saturday, depending on snow cover by then.

After a brief cooldown Sunday and Monday in the wake of a shortwave
trough, the models indicate low amplitude but deep upper troughing
off of the west coast by Feb 18-19Th. This pattern would result in
broad west-southwest mid to high level flow across the high plains,
with lee troughing and very mild temperatures. Highs could reach
well into the 60s and 70s by February 19th.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

An upper level short wave is currently crossing from northwest to
southeast across the TAF sites, MVFR cigs should hold out through
midnight, but vsbys will linger in the IFR category at times, due
to the combination of falling snow and fog. This system is moving
southeast rather quickly, and IFR cigs should develop in the cold
air around 05 to 06Z

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 4 28 14 33 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 5 30 16 37 / 80 0 0 0
EHA 10 38 21 49 / 80 10 0 0
LBL 7 32 20 38 / 80 10 0 0
HYS 3 26 14 36 / 30 0 0 0
P28 7 24 14 37 / 60 10 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR
KSZ043-044-061>064-075>081-086>090.

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

119 PM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW AT THIS
TIME IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER. FURTHER
SOUTH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING. GOING BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO
MY SOUTH AND THE 12Z DDC SOUNDING...SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
NEAR THE DENDRITIC ZONE WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ABOVE THIS.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH WHAT MODEL SOUNDINGS HAD INDICATED.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN SNOW BAND EXPECT WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON TO
CONTINUE WHICH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
AFTER THIS BAND OF SNOW LEAVES...MESOSCALE OUTPUT INDICATING
LITTLE IF ANY MORE SNOW WILL FALL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND NOT TO CHANGE THAT...EXPECT
THE FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.

ADJUSTED MAXES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
THE WINDS PER TRENDS AND LATEST RUC WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT IS
CATCHING THIS THE BEST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MONDAY...HOW COLD TO MAKE IT TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY/RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PACIFIC. BECAUSE THE UPPER FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST
THAT LEAVES A FAST AND NEARLY ZONAL FROM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE WERE SOME MODERATION IN THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS AS SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW DID OCCUR. HOWEVER ANOTHER VERY
COLD AIR MASS IN PUSHING THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS ARE NOT GETTING THE POSITION OF THE MAIN
JETS...THE ONE OVER OUR AREA RIGHT NOW AND THE ONE COMING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL AT THIS TIME THE GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING
THE BEST. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WAS DOING BETTER IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING THE SAME PROBLEMS IN
POSITION OF FEATURES AS AT THE JET LEVEL. MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND EAST WITH FEATURES. OVERALL THE GFS AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE ECMWF IS
DOING WAY BETTER THAN EVERYTHING ELSE ON THE SURFACE PATTERN...
ESPECIALLY THE LOCATION OF THIS CURRENT COLD SURGE AND THE SURFACE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST JET
STARTS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE DAY. THIS JET SEGMENT RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH BY 18Z AND IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THEN. THIS IS AT THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS. THE BRUNT OF LIFT LOOKS TO BE OUR NORTH. MODEL DEPICTION
LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTH
AND THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO NO LIFT IS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE DAY.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE MORE OF A PROBLEM TODAY. MODELS NOT AS
SATURATED IN THE COLUMN AS WAS SHOWN TODAY. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE IT
LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW IS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MY AREA ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE ICE IN THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY DOWN LOW...BUT MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WARM LAYER NOT TOO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. ALSO THE THIS
AFTERNOON THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LIFT OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIGHT AND COULD BE A
MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE RISE. PROBLEM IS MODELS LOOK TO BE STARTING
OUT TOO COLD. HOWEVER DID TEND GO TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS INITIAL
COUPLET MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG PV ANOMALY
APPROACHES DURING THE EVENING. MESOSCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
ORGANIZED. ICE LOOKS TO GET INTO THE COLUMN WITH THETA-E LAPSE
RATES SO SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE PHASE. FAVORED AREA FOR THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST HALF. MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH LATE IN THE NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH DUE TO THICK CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AS STATED ABOVE FIRST COUPLET APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE MODELS DEVELOP A
SECONDARY NORTHERN JET STREAK JUST TO OUR NORTH AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE DAY. ANOTHER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTHWEST
OF OUR AREA AT 12Z WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK COUPLET TO OUR WEST. THIS
NORTHERN JET STREAK/RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. SO INCREASED POPS TO A LOW CHANCE IN THE MORNING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT IS STARTING MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA. SHOULD HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE WINDS SO
LITTLE CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE EARLY SO HAVE A MENTION
OF FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. BECAUSE OF VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND A
SNOWFIELD...THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED A FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO COLD.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET APPROACHES THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE
WESTERN THIRD TO HALF BY 06Z. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY MOVE
THIS FEATURE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
AFFECT SOME PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT...
MAINLY EAST. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL DRY
LAYER. SO WILL ONLY EXPECT A THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WITH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD REMAINING DRY.

AIR MASS WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS SPREADING OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. AT FIRST GLANCE THE NWP APPEARS TO WARM. THE 2
METER TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND THEY DID DO BETTER
YESTERDAY IN A SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS ONCE. ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXES WITH THE COOLEST IN THE EAST AND WARMEST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONCERNS A SHIFT IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM AN ACTIVE...COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN TO A
MUCH WARMER...DRY PATTERN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE WEAK RIDGE MAY LAST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND. THIS WOULD MEAN WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS AND INITIAL BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE GIVES JUST THAT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LAST TWO OF A SERIES OF WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING A COUPLE LAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
SNOW. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR BOTH
DISTURBANCES...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THESE
TWO WAVES DO NOT POSSESS THE STRONGER CHARACTERISTICS NEEDED TO
EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE WARMING TREND ALLUDED TO EARLIER BEGINS TUESDAY. WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THE TWO DISTURBANCES...WARMING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...HIGHS FOR TUESDAY SHOULD APPROACH
NORMAL LEVELS. THE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND COMPLICATES THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUT THERE WERE ENOUGH SIGNS TO MAINTAIN A TEMP
FORECAST IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY...LIKELY DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SNOW ON THE GROUND. ENDED UP LOWERING TEMPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST RUNS BUT THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW SHOULD MELT
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCAL CHANGES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
FORECAST IS ADVERTISED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S. THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS CONTINUED ITS
TREND OF WARMING OVER THIS TIME FRAME. THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS NOW
WARMER THAN THE GFS...A BIG CHANGE FROM THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL RUN
YESTERDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VIS AND CIGS
IMPROVING SOME AT KGLD AND KMCK. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING DOWN TO
LIFR TOWARD MORNING WITH FOG REDEVELOPMENT AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

218 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

As the next upper tropospheric jet streak continues to approach
tonight, there will be an increase in the response in the 800-600mb
layer (particularly noted at 700mb) as an increase in deformation
and convergence along the slowly southward moving mid level
baroclinic zone. The latest runs of the HRRR are starting to line up
nicely with other mesoscale models and even coarser global models
with a west-northwest to east-southeast axis of light to moderate
snow. The zone of 700mb frontogenesis will only be strongest over
any one location for about 3 or 4 hours before quickly shifting off
to the east. The fast duration of the event alone will limit
potential accumulations, however during the height of the snowfall,
rates could be on the order of one-half to three-quarters inch per
hour. Placement of the heaviest snow band(s) is also still somewhat
in question, but feel pretty confident it (they) will ultimately lie
somewhere along/north of Highway 50 and south of Highway 4. The
winter weather advisory that was issued midday encompasses this
region of the forecast area for a general 1 to 3 inch accumulation.
Given the expected banded nature of the event and forward motion of
the frontogenesis somewhat parallel to band orientation, some
isolated amounts in excess of 3 inches will be possible. Global and
mesoscale models both show the meso-alpha scale frontogenesis
weakening toward daybreak as it shifts toward south-central Kansas,
so will be going with slightly lower amounts across the
Stafford-Pratt-Barber County zone. We went ahead and removed the
snow out of the forecast for the bulk of the day Monday except for
the very end of the day across far southwest Kansas. The rest of the
forecast was left unchanged as it appeared to be in pretty good
shape (regarding temperatures, wind, etc.)

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough moving
southeastward across the Western High Plains Monday night bringing
precip chances to the region very early in the period. As the
shortwave moves through, surface high pressure across the Upper
Midwest will provide a southeasterly upslope flow near the surface
while surface low pressure develops across New Mexico. This will
set up increased low level convergence across the panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma into portions of southwest Kansas. Although the
flow aloft will be less than favorable, enough low/mid level
forcing will be present, including the presence of some H7
frontogenetic banding, to support light snow development across
the panhandles with snow possibly reaching across the border into
southwest Kansas. Fairly light QPF signals and PW values down
around a quarter inch suggest minimal snow accumulations generally
less than one inch through Tuesday morning. Drier conditions are
then expected through the end of the week as weak upper level
ridging develops across the Intermountain West.

Temperatures will warm up Tuesday as surface high pressure departs
eastern Kansas to the east returning a southerly low level flow
to western Kansas. This will draw slightly warmer air northward
with H85 temperatures ranging from around 5C below across central
Kansas to near 0C in far southwest Kansas. Along with the help of
expected decreased cloud cover, look for highs well up into the
30s(F) Tuesday afternoon with near 40F possible in extreme
southwest Kansas. The warming trend continues into Wednesday with
widespread 40s(F) expected for highs with near 50F possible in far
southwest Kansas. Highs are likely to reach the 50s(F) to near 60F
Thursday afternoon.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

Latest indications are that ceilings will remain in the IFR
category with average ceiling in the 600 to 1000 foot range at DDC
and GCK. HYS will likely stay in MVFR for the remainder of the day
until light snow begins to affect the terminal this evening. Light
to occasionally moderate snow will move in mid-evening and persist
for a 6-9 hour period across portions of southwest Kansas, including
GCK and DDC terminals. During the heaviest period of snow, flight
category of LIFR or perhaps briefly VLIFR can be expected overnight.
Following the snow early Monday morning, ceiling will remain a
problem with flight category likely staying in IFR, especially GCK
and DDC.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 8 16 4 32 / 80 20 20 0
GCK 8 18 6 34 / 80 10 20 0
EHA 12 24 12 40 / 30 20 30 10
LBL 12 21 8 36 / 40 20 20 10
HYS 5 13 0 30 / 60 20 10 0
P28 9 17 4 30 / 80 60 20 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening to
9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Monday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
076>081-088>090.

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

148 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

A weak shortwave trough will move through the Central Rockies along
the zonal flow late Sunday. This shortwave will then move through
Kansas on Monday. Convergence and mid level moisture will increase
as this feature approaches. Mostly cloudy skies are anticipated
throughout the day Monday with light to moderate snow showers.
Precipitation chances end from west to east Monday evening into
Monday night. Snow totals remain around 1 to 2 inches across the
area. However, a few areas across west central and south central
Kansas could see over 2 inches by the time the system exits
the area. Surrounding offices and DDC have decided to not go with a
winter weather advisory at this time and have the day shift see what
the next model run suggests. Cloudy skies should continue Monday
night with some clearing possible across west central Kansas towards
sunrise. Winds will generally be from a northeasterly direction
Monday as high pressure builds into the Plains. With the cloud cover
and shot of cold air advection across the area, temperatures Monday
are not expected to increase much from the morning lows. Highs
Monday are forecasted to range from the lower teens across central
Kansas to lower 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Lows Tuesday
morning are expected to range from the negative single digits across
central Kansas to around 10 degrees across far southwestern Kansas.
However, if more clearing occurs overnight, temperatures could end
up lower than what the current forecast depicts.

The dome of high pressure moves east of the area on Tuesday shifting
winds to the southwest. A few low level clouds may continue in the
morning across south central Kansas Tuesday morning. Otherwise
expect partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. The Central High
Plains will then be stuck in between an upper level ridge across the
western US and an upper level long wave trough across the eastern
United states throughout the remainder of the forecast period. A few
weak shortwaves are progged to move north of the area, but do not
look to bring any precipitation across southwest Kansas at this
time. Only a few clouds are expected to be observed throughout this
period with dry conditions. Winds will generally be from the west
but shift slightly to the north or south as the aforementioned
shortwaves move north of southwest Kansas. We will finally begin the
slow warming up process Tuesday through Saturday, however the
snowpack across much of the region will need to be knocked out quite
a bit before we realize maximum potential based on typical downslope
mix-down scenarios.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening to
9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Monday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
076>081-088>090.

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1053 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

ADJUSTED MAXES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
THE WINDS PER TRENDS AND LATEST RUC WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT IS
CATCHING THIS THE BEST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN US WITH WESTERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO NW
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MEAN STORM TRACK REMAINING ALONG THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL ON PAST
MODEL RUNS TO EVEN HINT AT LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES...HOWEVER EVEN IT HAS
TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT. GFS/GEFS/GEM ALL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
WEAKER SHORTWAVES (AND LESS OF AN IMPACT IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS OVER
OUR CWA AS A RESULT). THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND BY THE LATEST ECMWF
TO KEEP BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS FURTHER NORTH (IN LINE WITH OTHER
GUIDANCE)...WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY IMPACT OF THESE TROUGH PASSAGES...
AND KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE. AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN NON
MEASURABLE PRECIP HINTED AT BY ECMWF THU NIGHT-FRI (WHICH I HAVE VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN BASED ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN) IT LOOKS LIKE WE
ARE ABOUT TO ENTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON WED IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1051 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2014

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

The hemispheric pattern was characterized by a high zonal index with
a couple of identifiable synoptic scale jet streaks within the
pattern across the western third of the CONUS. The first of these
jet streaks across the Northern Rockies led to light/moderate snow
across western and central Nebraska this morning, as increased
deformation acted on a tight baroclinic zone at 700mb (-18C at Rapid
City vs. -2C at Denver). A cold front at 850mb was analyzed from the
far northeastern portion of New Mexico through the southern Texas
Panhandle into northern Oklahoma. Cold advection continued across
southwest Kansas behind this front. The next upper level jet streak
was quick on the heels of the aforementioned Northern Rockies jet
streak...entering the Great Basin region this morning. This second
jet streak will have an impact on southwestern Kansas weather
tonight.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

Areas of locally dense freezing fog that developed over parts of
central and western Kansas after sunset were propagating southwest
behind the front into the far southwest part of the state early this
morning. The last few runs of the RUC and HRRR visibility progs have
been pretty consistent in moving the fog south and west into
southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles by 12z. This
looks reasonable given the dry air advection that is currently
ongoing from north central into southwest Kansas. The dense fog
advisory goes until 12z and will let it ride but continue to monitor
for any areal or temporal extensions.

Per SREF analysis and water vapor imagery, the first upper speed max
was currently moving into the upper Mississippi Valley early this
morning. The subsequent speed maxes will move out along the Kansas
Nebraska border today and out over Kansas tonight. Associated mid
level frontogenetic forcing will move out across Nebraska and far
northern Kansas this morning and over Kansas tonight. Regional radar
mosaic shows light snow already moving out of Wyoming into the
Nebraska Panhandle and this will continue eastward across northern
Kansas and Nebraska today. The current forecast has chance pops for
light snow along the I-70 corridor today. Think any measurable snow
will be north of the Dodge City forecast area today. The system
moving out tonight should bring some accumulating snow to west
central and parts of southwest and south central Kansas tonight. The
models have been consistent with this so have increased pops well
into the likely category tonight. The NAM is showing a swath of 1-2
inch snowfall generally north of Highway 50 tonight. Have increased
snowfall amounts a little but for now think we will not see enough
to warrant a winter weather advisory.

Temperatures will not rise much, if at all, today given the ongoing
cold air advection. Temperatures tonight should fall well down into
the single digits above zero with a few low teens possible around
Elkhart and Liberal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 20 8 15 4 / 20 60 60 20
GCK 20 8 17 6 / 30 60 50 20
EHA 24 12 23 12 / 20 30 30 20
LBL 23 12 20 8 / 20 40 40 20
HYS 18 5 12 0 / 30 60 40 20
P28 25 9 16 4 / 30 60 60 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Monday FOR KSZ043>046-062>066-077>081.

SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

557 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

ADJUSTED MAXES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
THE WINDS PER TRENDS AND LATEST RUC WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT IS
CATCHING THIS THE BEST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014

FOR KGLD...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. FROM 18Z TO 06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. FROM NEAR 06Z TO THE END OF THE PERIOD...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR KMCK...PREVAILING CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WILL BE MVFR. HOWEVER
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND SNOW WILL OCCUR. FROM 18Z TO
06Z MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR
AROUND 06Z.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

552 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

IFR conditions will be found across the GCK and DDC terminals for
the next couple of hours due to lowered visibilities. Thereafter,
MVFR conditions look to prevail for the remainder of the day with
overcast conditions AOA015. Winds will generally be from the
northeast around 10 knots shifting to more of an easterly
direction this afternoon. The chance of snow and lowered
visibilities is likely this evening as the next system moves in
from the west. However, I have left the mention of it out of the
TAFs since it is more than 6 hours out of TAF issuance.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 8 15 3 / 20 60 60 20
GCK 19 8 17 5 / 30 60 50 20
EHA 24 12 23 11 / 20 30 30 20
LBL 23 12 20 7 / 20 40 40 20
HYS 17 5 12 -1 / 30 60 40 20
P28 23 9 16 3 / 30 60 60 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this morning
FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>078-084>088.

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

514 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

Northwest flow is seen to persist on the 09Z water vapor imagery.
Profiler data suggest there are a few weak waves within the flow and
think this is the main reason for the areas of light snow moving
across northern KS early this morning. All of the model guidance
continues to point towards a weak band of snow moving across north
central and northeast KS through the day today. This appears to be
driven mainly be mid level frontogenesis and possibly some weak
vorticity advection. Since there is not much disagreement in models,
have cautiously bumped up pops with a narrow axis of likely pops
from Concordia to Topeka. The progressive nature of the snow and
little or no instability suggests amounts will only be around an
inch.

Surface obs show the latest cold front has pushed through the
forecast area and we are seeing dewpoint temps slowly fall. Think
this dry air advection will eventually cause the light freezing mist
or freezing drizzle across east central KS to come to an end over
the next few hours. However temps remain relatively mild behind the
immediate wind shift. Because of this have bumped today`s highs up a
couple degrees thinking the better cold air advection will occur
late in the day and this evening as the arctic ridge really starts
to build in. Generally have highs close to or a degree warmer than
current readings. With overcast skies and a north wind, I don`t
expect temps to see much of a diurnal warm up. So have nearly steady
temps for most of the day.

Tonight, models suggest another weak wave will move through the
area. Although it looks like the better frontogenesis will have set
up further south with the band of snow more likely across central
and southern KS. Nevertheless will continue with a chance POPs
across the southwestern portions of the forecast area. Continued
cold air advection as the next arctic ridge builds into the central
plains should push lows Monday morning down into the single digits.
May need to watch out for some wind chills as north winds remain up
around 5 MPH. At this point wind chill readings remain above
advisory criteria of -15F.

Wolters

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

Behind the surface cold front, another reinforcing source of lift is
progged to quickly translate eastward from the Colorado Rockies on
Monday. Cross sections and profilers suggest the majority of the
frontogenetical forcing coinciding with the dendritic ice growth is
centered in the 700-500 MB layer. The saturated column remains well
below 0C with snow being the primary precip type. Based on the
consensus of models tracking the trough axis through central Kansas,
light snow is possible over portions of north central and east
central areas. Best chances were kept south of Interstate 70 during
the morning and early afternoon, gradually tapering off by the
evening. The meager amounts of moisture and short duration of
maximized lift with this system suggest near a half of an inch or
less. The cloud cover and steady cold advection from the 1040 MB
arctic ridge hold h85 temps between 10 and 12C below zero at 12Z.
This should drop highs back down into the teens.

As the ridge axis edges eastward Tuesday, temperatures begin near 0
degrees F before the slow warm up commences. Surface flow becomes
southerly as a thermal axis builds over Colorado. Within the very
western periphery of the ridge by afternoon, highs should recover
to the lower 20s across the area. As this thermal axis begins to
migrate eastward Wednesday/Thursday, guidance begins to differ on
upper flow pattern resulting in contrasting temperatures. The
GFS/ECMWF on Wednesday try to bring a weak and progressive wave
southeast across the region. Although consistent for this run, I am
not inclined to add precip chances just yet until better consistency
between runs is seen. Behind the departing surface trough, a cold
front passes southeast Wednesday-Wednesday evening time frame. The
recent ECMWF is trending as the outlier, bringing a narrow corridor
of much colder air behind the front, while other guidance depicts a
embedded trough developing over the northern plains, shunting the
colder air eastward. While the ECMWF cannot be completely ruled out,
have kept with the consensus blend for now; hesitant to increase
temperatures Wednesday-Thursday. For now middle 30s are reasonable
for Wednesday highs, increasing to low 40s on Thursday as the h85
thermal axis spreads across the area.

On Friday, another strong, but narrow shortwave trough dips
southeast into the Mississippi Valley. Decided to remove precip
chances for Friday as confidence is too low with both GFS and ECMWF
depicting the precip to develop further north and east. Kept highs
in the 40s on Friday instead of increasing further, as cloud cover
from the upper wave may hinder the warmer bias. Lastly on Saturday,
winds begin to shift back towards the north as a cold front enters
from Nebraska. Timing appears late in the day, still allowing for
highs to reach the low to middle 40s.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 514 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

Dry air advection has started to erode away at the MVFR CIGS.
However think MVFR conditions may move back in with models still
showing a band of light snow forming near the terminals. Until the
band forms, do not have enough confidence to mention IFR
conditions, but if the RAP is correct there may be some due to
moderate snowfall. This will need to be monitored. Otherwise
think conditions will generally be improving due to continued dry
air advection once the band of snow moves east. Overnight, models
are showing the better frontogenesis setting up to the southwest of
the terminals, so will not mention any snow overnight and think
VFR conditions will prevail. This is contingent on the second band
of snow remaining to the southwest.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

358 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014

IFR to LIFR ceilings will continue at the TAF sites in southwest
and central Kansas through the overnight hours. Visibilities will
stay in the 1/4 to 1/2 mile range at Garden City and Dodge City
with visibilities remaining around 4-6 miles at Hays through the
overnight hours. Conditions should improve somewhat into the MVFR
category by mid to late Sunday morning.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 8 15 3 / 20 60 50 30
GCK 19 8 17 5 / 30 60 50 20
EHA 24 12 23 11 / 20 30 30 20
LBL 23 12 20 7 / 20 40 40 20
HYS 17 5 12 -1 / 30 60 40 20
P28 23 9 16 3 / 30 60 50 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this morning
FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>078-084>088.

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Gerard

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

345 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2014

...Updated synopsis and short term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

This evenings upper air analysis showed strong west northwest mid to
upper level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern and central Plains and Ohio Valley. The 250 millibar
analysis showed 120+ knot speed maxes over Wyoming, and moving
onshore into the Pacific Northwest. Another speed max was
approaching the west coast. The 850-700 millibar baroclinic zone
extended from Wyoming to along the Kansas/Nebraska border. At the
surface, a reinforcing shot of arctic air was pushing south through
Nebraska early this morning behind a cold front which has pushed
south through all of western Kansas.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014

Sunday Night through Tuesday:
One last renewed arctic air shot will affect western Kansas during
this time frame...and along with it will be an increased chance for
some light snow. A shortwave trough will be approaching the Colorado
Rockies along the zonal flow pattern late Sunday. Deformation and
convergence will slowly increase along a pre-existing baroclinic
zone around 700mb with the lower-mid troposphere moistening
overnight Sunday Night. Using primarily the ECMWF as guidance in the
forecast, the mid-level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly will move
from Utah into southern Colorado early Monday. Ahead of it, 700mb
frontogenesis will increase, despite the overall westerly component
to the flow at this level. On the mesoscale, there will most likely
be subtleties within the broad baroclinic zone, but these little
nuances are impossible to predict a couple days out, so the forecast
will reflect a general ramp up in POPs late Sunday Night with a
plateau of around 50 POPs for much of the day Monday before
decreasing later in the afternoon once the main body of the
disturbance moves east-southeast of the southwest Kansas region. As
far as snow totals go, we are looking at roughly an 18-hr period of
total accumulations in the 1 to 2 inch range.

Given the clouds and precipitation Monday and the core of the fresh
arctic airmass amidst the region, temperatures will not rise much at
all. We have lowered the maximum temperature 4 or 5 degrees for
most locations across the forecast area, in line with the ECMWF
2-meter temperatures. Monday Night should prove to be very cold with
a fresh coat of snow, however questions about how fast clouds will
clear out will have huge implication on overnight low. We would
likely see widespread temperatures at or below zero, especially
north of the Arkansas River, should low clouds clear out by midnight
or so. The surface high will move off to the east Tuesday, however
the surface flow will still be influence by the high which will be
recirculating cold trajectories despite a south or south-southeast
wind. We have lowered the high forecast across the eastern half of
the forecast area Tuesday by a few degrees, and this may not even be
enough. Meanwhile, out toward the Colorado border (especially
Elkhart), temperatures may approach 40 by late afternoon.

Rest of the work-week:
We will finally begin the slow warming up process, however the
snowpack across much of the region will need to be knocked out quite
a bit before we realize maximum potential based on typical downslope
mix-down scenarios. The Allblend guidance was left untouched for
this forecast, however the general feeling is that the warm-up may
be a bit too ambitious by the guidance and feel these daytime highs
will be lowered in subsequent updates along/east of Highway 283 and
especially toward central Kansas.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this morning
FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>078-084>088.

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Gerard

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

612 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
607 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING. THIS IN RESPONSE TO
35KT JET STREAK AT 700MBS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ON THE IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY W/A BAND OF ENHANCED CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. THESE CLOUDS WILL PULL OUT THIS
MORNING W/SUNSHINE RETURNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
SW TO NE. STRONG LLVL INVERSION AS SEEN FROM THE LATEST LAPS
SOUNDINGS HAS SETUP. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT EVEN MORE
W/READINGS ATTM ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS NEAR 20
BELOW W/EVEN 10-15 AROUND THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND THE CARIBOU-
PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LLVL MOISTURE THIS MORNING.
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BURN OFF AND LIFT AFTER SUNRISE W/THE
INVERSION BREAKING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL
OF SNOW UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RAP MODEL WAS HANDLING THE
PRECIP SHIELD WELL PER 06Z ANALYSIS.

THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE
COLUMN MOISTENING UP THROUGH 500MBS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE FROM NYS. THIS MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO MAKE ITS WAY
UP INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE ESPECIALLY W/THE GFS. THE BEST LIFT AND
ANY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY) ALL TO WAY TO THE COAST.
SNOW RATIOS WILL MAKE SNOWFALL A CHALLENGE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 18-22:1 & QPF LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. ATTM, THE DECISION
HERE WAS TO STAY W/THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THE BEST SNOWFALL
WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND ESPECIALLY THE COAST WHERE TOTALS
BY MONDAY COULD HIT 3-4 INCHES. DECIDED ON NO ADVISORY ATTM SINCE
THIS EVENT WILL STRETCH INTO MONDAY. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD UP AFTER FALLING OFF THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SUCH AS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
COULD DROP BACK TO BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF W/THE INCREASING
CLOUDS.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
EARLY MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AND PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THE MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST
EC TRACKS THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND UP ALONG THE MAINE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS BY FAR AN
OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE NOT
DEVIATED FROM SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM TODAY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH KQPI AND KFVE. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST LATER TONIGHT
W/KBGR AND KBHB SEEING MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR BY MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN -SN EARLY MONDAY...THEN MAINLY
VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS
W/SEAS RUNNING 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

331 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES,
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLVL INVERSION HAS SETUP OVER THE REGION W/TEMPERATURES REALLY
DROPPING OFF IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE RIVERS. TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS COULD BOTTOM OUT IN A RANGE OF 15 TO 20 BELOW BY 7 AM
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES UP SOME. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR
STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AS
IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST HRRR AND THE RAP. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS LLVL MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
BURN OFF AND LIFT AFTER SUNRISE W/THE INVERSION BREAKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RAP MODEL WAS HANDLING THE PRECIP SHIELD
WELL PER 06Z ANALYSIS.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM TODAY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH KQPI AND KFVE. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST LATER TONIGHT
W/KBGR AND KBHB SEEING MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR BY MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN -SN EARLY MONDAY...THEN MAINLY
VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS
W/SEAS RUNNING 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

107 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
107 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AS READINGS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS ARE DROPPING OFF FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FCST. DECIDED TO DROP THE OVERNIGHT MINS A CATEGORY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH PUTS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN MAINE IN
A RANGE OF 15 TO 20 BELOW BY 12Z. MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES, BUT
STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AND PERHAPS BELOW ZERO IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. RAP AND HRRR
SHOWING SOME LLVL MOISTURE SETTING UP EARLY THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVERS AND VALLEYS IN THE FORM OF FOG OR
STRATUS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

MOST OF THE CLDNSS OVR SRN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD THEN EXIT BY ERLY
SUN AFTN...BEFORE CLDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR WRN AND SRN PTNS OF THE
FA BY SUN EVE AHEAD OF A MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE S/WV FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LKS. IT APPEARS...THAT ANY LGT SN WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR FA
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN NGT. OTHERWISE...AFT CHILLY MORN LOWS...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N...TEMPS SHOULD THEN RECOVER TO SIMILAR HI TEMPS SUN
AS THIS AFTN.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STEADIEST SNOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA WHERE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LESSER SNOWS WILL
OCCUR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS THE FIRST LOW IS EITHER IN THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO OR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF GEORGIA. THE SECOND
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE SRN LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP
THE EAST COAST. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE
THUR AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND GEM THOUGH THEY DO NOT SHOW A CLOSED
LOW...INDICATE THAT SOMETHING WILL BE IN THE SAME AREA AS THE
ECMWF. AT THIS TIME THE RIDGE WILL HAVE BUILD EAST OF THE
AREA...THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN
CANADA WILL BE EXTENDED NE TO SW ACROSS QUEBEC...THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO NRN IL. THUR EVNG...THE ECMWF LOW MOVES
NE INTO SW NOVA SCOTIA...THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SOMETHING IN THE SAME AREA...THE TROUGH MOVES SE AND THE LOW OVER
NOVA SCOTIA AND THE TROUGH BEGIN TO INTERACT ACROSS MAINE AND NEW
BRUNSWICK. FRI MRNG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM DIFFER ON THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MOVES THE TROUGH SOUTH TO THE GULF
OF MAINE...WRAPS THE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT LOW INTO A NEW ONE
OVER BAR HARBOR...THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER LOW OVR NRN
PA...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING THE ORIGINAL LOW NOW WELL EAST OF THE
AREA ENTERING THE WRN CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GEM MAINTAINS THE
ORIGINAL LOW MOVES IT INTO THE MARITIMES...ALSO MAINTAINS THE
TROUGH ACROSS NRN MAINE...BACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO A NEW
LOW OVER LAKE HURON. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...A
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH LA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SAT EVEN THE
LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC...THE FRONT INTO WRN
MAINE...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW MOVES INTO ERN
QUEBEC...THE FRONT MOVES EAST INTO WRN NEW BRUNSWICK.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND FOR GRIDS. OVRNGT WED THRU THURS LOADED TWO
SUPERBLEND AND 1 ECMWF FOR POPS..THIS WILL GIVE A BIT MORE WEIGHT
TO THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WITHOUT A COMPLETE
CHANGE FROM THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 20 TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 30 PERCENT
OVER THE WATERS.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HRRR HAS AT TIMES
BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP LOW STRATUS ALONG AND NEAR THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER TOWARD MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND WILL
MAINTAIN A VFR FCST ATTM AT THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATER THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD FOR THE NEAR TERM. THE COMBO OF WNW OF 10
TO 15 KT...SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S AND SSTA`S IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S RESULTED IN LGT FZSPY OVR OUR WATERS TNGT INTO ERLY SUN
MORN...AFTERWHICH WINDS DROP ENOUGH FOR FZSPY TO NO LONGER BE AN
ISSUE LATE SUN MORN ONWARD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF OPNL/MOS MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR WINDS...AND WENT ABOUT A HLF FOOT HIGHER THAN WW3 WV
GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1240 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS TO THE SW OF CORE OF ARCTIC AIR SITUATED OVER QUEBEC.
RIBBON OF MUCH STRONGER W FLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE S 2/3 OF THE
CONUS. A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS FASTER FLOW IS
MOVING THRU CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MRNG. ACCOMPANYING PCPN HAS
REACHED AS FAR N AS GRB OR SO...BUT OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT NO HIER THAN 0.10 TO 0.15 INCH IS LIMITING THE IMPACT OVER
UPR MI TO JUST SOME MID CLD DESPITE PRESENCE OF AREA OF ACCOMPANYING
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC. LGT WINDS AND LO PWAT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
FALL BLO ZERO AT MOST PLACES DESPITE THESE CLDS. THERE ARE SOME LK
CLDS NEAR SUPERIOR WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -20C DESPITE LGT NW FEED OF
DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER. THE
MQT RADAR DOES SHOW A FEW HIER RETURNS OVER SCENTRAL LK SUP...SO
THERE ARE PROBABLY SOME ISOLD -SHSN DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES FOR LES.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN AND
ANOTHER DROPPING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LIMITED POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH ARRAY OF SHRTWVS MENTIONED ABOVE AND TEMPS.

TODAY..AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING TO THE S
IS FCST TO MOVE E THIS MRNG AND EXIT THE AREA SOON AFTER SUNRISE. SO
ACCOMPANYING MID CLD COVER SHOULD SHIFT TO THE E AS DRIER MID LVL
AIR FOLLOWS. BUT THE SHRTWV OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO TRACK
INTO SCENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC
ARRIVING THIS AFTN OVER UPR MI. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW
WITH LLVL NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING FIRST DISTURBANCE...
SUSPECT THE IMPACT FOR THE CWA WL BE THE SAME AS WHAT IS HAPPENING
NOW...JUST SOME MID CLD. SO HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE POPS...AT LEAST
AWAY FM LK SUP. THE MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH LK EFFECT PCPN THERE
MAY OR MAY NOT BE. MOST OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING NO PCPN
NEAR THE LK THRU THE DAY...WITH ICE COVER...ABSENCE OF CYC FLOW /IN
FACT SHOWING ACYC FLOW/...AND LLVL DRY ADVECTION SUPPRESSING THIS
ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHE HAND...THE LOWER RES GFS/ECMWF LIGHT QPF
SUGGEST SOME SHSN IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS. THE GFS ICE ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER OVER CENTRAL LK SUP WHILE THE
NAM/GEM INDICATE A COMPLETELY COVERED LK. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
BREAKS IN THE ICE RECENTLY AND THERE ARE AND HAVE BEEN SOME LGT SHSN
AS WELL...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO RES MODELS AND INCLUDE SOME LO CHC
POPS IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS THRU THE DAY AS THE LLVL NW FLOW DROPS
H85 TEMPS TO ARND -23C BY 00Z MON OVER THE W. THIS CAD SHOULD KEEP
MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN YDAY...WITH THE HIER TEMPS OVER THE SCENTRAL
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PROBABLY SOME SUNSHINE BTWN THE SHRTWVS.

TNGT...SHRTWV NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO DROP SEWD AND OVER
UPR MI BY 12Z MON AS WI DISTURBANCE SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER LKS. THIS
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SHRTWVS IS FCST TO MAINTAIN SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC THRU THE NGT...SO THERE WL PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT OF
AT LEAST MID/HI CLD EVEN OVER THE INTERIOR EVEN THOUGH LLVL DRYING
SHOULD PREVENT ANY PCPN THERE. CLOSER TO LK SUP...WL MAINTAIN SOME
LOWER CHC POPS FOR LES WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -24C DESPITE
FCST NEUTRAL/ACYC NW FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER. THE GFS SHOWS
STRONGER LLVL WINDS THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT OUT OF PHASE
SHRTWVS/EXTENSIVE ICE COVER THAT WL LIMIT PRES FALLS OVER THE OPEN
WATER AND SHARPNESS OF THE PRES GRADIENT INDICATE THE WEAKER WINDS
SHOWN BY THE BULK OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THIS
DIFFERENCE IN WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHETHER
WIND CHILLS WL REACH ADVY THRESHOLDS AS SFC TEMPS FALL WELL BLO
ZERO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF. WITH THE WEAKER WINDS...EXPECT
NEITHER THE WIND CHILLS NOR THE WIND SPEEDS WL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ADVY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

AFTER STARTING THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER A COLD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...IT/S DEPARTURE ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WARMER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS (-24C) UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ON
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE OPEN WATER. BUT MODIS SATELLITE FROM
TODAY SHOWS THAT THOSE AREAS ARE VERY LIMITED...BUT THERE WERE
STILL PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OVER THE LAST DAY.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS SHIFTS OF SLIGHT AND CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT...ALONG WITH LIMITED
OPEN WATER...DON/T THINK SNOW WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH...UNLESS SOME
WATER OPENS UP MORE THAN CURRENTLY SEEN. SINCE THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA (CURRENTLY BETWEEN
LAKE WINNIPEG AND HUDSON BAY)...WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER DAYS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEST IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND MID-UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE HIGH SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR...WARMING ALOFT...AND
WEAKENING/BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SNOW CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
DRY RIDGE MOVING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE INLAND
TEMPERATURES REALLY FALL WERE SKIES CLEAR OUT. GOING FORECAST HAS
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER NEAR -20F AND THAT SEEMS
FAIRLY REASONABLE. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THOSE VALUES...SINCE
SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS EVEN HAVE VALUES AROUND -24F AND BASED
OFF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS IT DOESN/T SEEM
TOO UNREASONABLE. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH
FOR WIND CHILLS TO NOSE INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT WITH WINDS
LOOKING TO BE WELL BELOW 10MPH...SHOULD NOT NEED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AND LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
START A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER...BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL...FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS ON THE WHERE THE PIECES OF ENERGY
TRACK...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR SOME ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY TO SWEEP THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA
FOR A WEST TO EAST PUSH OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE CWA.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY AND ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THIS
TIME...THE GFS/GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
INTENSIFYING THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TRACKS A WEAKER LOW FARTHER
SOUTH AND SLOWER THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TRADITIONAL FASTER
GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS USUALLY MERGING AND SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCES...THINK THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE NEAR
ADVISORY SNOWFALL AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
WILL KEEP POPS AT THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...MODELS SHOW A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCE A DRY FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW PUSH OF WIND TOWARD IWD SHOULD ALLOW
MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PUSH N OF THE SITE WITH MVFR CEILINGS
REMAINING DOMINANT. CMX WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AND
LOWER VIS WITH -SHSN AS SAW IS IN A MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WITH
THIS WIND DIRECTION. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL STILL KEEP VFR TO
HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS OFF AND ON AT BOTH IWD AND SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
1239 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS DUE TO THE WINDS
LINGERING AROUND 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MAINLY DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD TONIGHT...A HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE. EXPECT A RIDGE TO
SET UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MAIN HIGH SINKS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY...AND EXITS
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT NE TO S HUDSON BAY WHILE DRAGGING A
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

703 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LIMITED POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH ARRAY OF SHRTWVS MENTIONED ABOVE AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

COLD NW FLOW AND PASSING DISTURBANCES WL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLD
THIS FCST PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME GENERALLY LGT SHSN...THE INTENSITY
OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE ICE ON LK SUP AND RELATIVELY DRY
LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH THIS DRY AIR WL CAUSE
PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE UNDER
FAIRLY LO INVRN. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THRU MID WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS MOST OF THE TIME.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON MON...WHEN NW WINDS
MAY BE AS HI AS 25 KTS AHEAD OF HI PRES MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STRONGER S-SW WIND UP TO 25 KTS MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ON TUE NIGHT UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HI MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND A LO PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. ALTHOUGH VERY COLD
AIR WILL LINGER THRU TUE...EXPECT LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
SPRAY WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

336 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LIMITED POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH ARRAY OF SHRTWVS MENTIONED ABOVE AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014

EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES AS VARIABLE WINDS
SHIFT NW BTWN 08-14Z THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE...IT IS HARD TO FCST VSBY
LOWER THAN VFR AS NW WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG AND SHOULDN/T
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH BLOWING SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

757 PM MST MON FEB 10 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WDSPR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED E OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TONIGHT AND WELL INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY ALSO EFFECT THE E. THE N
MTS...NE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MORE PERSISTENT SNOW. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE N MTS...WITH AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CO BORDER FROM KRTN TO KCAO. SPOTTIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID DAY
TUESDAY...AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS E OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MST MON FEB 10 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MAINLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AFTER TONIGHT...WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL
ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS...AT LEAST WEST OF THE STRATUS DECK IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST CONTINUE
TO ERODE...THOUGH THEY MAY NOT COMPLETELY GO AWAY...VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME HOLES WILL DEVELOP AND LOCALLY WARM
IT UP A BIT.

LOOKS LIKE SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION HAS FORMED IN BOTH SE CO AND
NORTHERN AZ LATE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NM OVERNIGHT. EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO
POP UP IN NW NM. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN VORT MAX WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM...WHERE LESS MOISTURE RESIDES...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MAIN
SNOW BAND WILL STAY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER THIS
EVENING... THOUGH THE LOCAL WRF AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
EITHER SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT NE NM...OR THAT ANOTHER
WEAKER BAND WILL DEVELOP IN NE NM. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NE FOR THIS REASON. THIS BAND LIKELY WOULD NOT GET MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN A SPRINGER TO CLAYTON LINE...THOUGH COULD SEE LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. HI RES MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL...VERY LIGHT... BAND OF PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NEAR
CORONA EASTWARD TOWARD PORTALES. INTERESTINGLY THOUGH...THIS BAND IS
ABSENT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF...THOUGH SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS HAD BEEN
ADVERTISING IT. AT BEST...WOULD THINK ONLY A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW
COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NE EITHER. WILL CONTINUE THE SPS AND
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST. FREEZING FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT...THOUGH AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY AROUND KLVS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP SOME ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...THOUGH
GENERALLY WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY...ALL AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WARM TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT EARLY FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN THE EAST A FEW
DEGREES...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.FIRE WEATHER...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AND TUE MORN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NE HALF OF NM AND THE CURRENT COLDER THAN NORMAL
AIR OVER THE EAST LINGERING INTO TUE...IT LOOKS LIKE A LONG PERIOD
OF NO PRECIPITATION AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST A LITTLE BEYOND.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXISTS MAINLY FOR THU IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

NEAR TERM THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PULLED UP NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
NEAR RATON TO JUST WEST OF SANTA ROSA TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF DUNKEN
IN FAR SW CHAVES COUNTY. THE POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ERODED TO A PRETTY GOOD DEGREE BUT WILL LIKELY THICKEN AND MAY
SPREAD A BIT FARTHER WEST TONIGHT COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORN AS THE
COLD FRONT MAKES IT TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND PERHAPS BELOW LOWER
CANYONS INTO SOME PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH THAT WILL
BE A FAIRLY MODEST EAST WIND MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN 10 TO 20 MPH
AND EVEN THOSE WINDS WILL DIE OUT BETWEEN DAWN AND MID MORN TUE.
CHANCE OF THE FRONT MAKING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AND LARGE
IS UNDER 50 PERCENT. OF COURSE EAST OF THE FRONT RH RECOVERIES WILL
BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND ALMOST THAT GOOD FARTHER WEST
EXCEPT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM BERNALILLO COUNTY ON SOUTH.
RECOVERIES ONLY IN THE POOR TO ONLY LOCALLY GOOD RANGE MOST AREAS
FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS THEREAFTER. VENT RATES TO BE GENERALLY FAIR TO
GOOD TUE AND WED WITH A FEW VERY GOOD POCKETS IN CENTRAL AND NE
NM...THEN A MAJOR IMPROVEMENT THU WHERE MUCH OF AREA WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. UNFORTUNATELY IT DROPS BACK AGAIN FRI AND SAT BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO SOME DEGREE SUN...BUT NOT AS IMPRESSIVELY AS THU.

WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING MIDWEEK SOME MIN RH VALUES OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
15 PERCENT POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON...WHEN A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AND ADJACENT TO DE BACA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WED THROUGH SUN...THERE
WILL BE SOME RISK OF PERIODIC SHORT TERM MARGINALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS IN EASTERN NM...FAVORING WED AND SUN AFTN.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

703 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WHERE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE FLURRIES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. TOMORROW EVENING AND WEDNESDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...CNRT FCST IN FINE SHAPE. LAKE BAND TRYING TO
ORGANIZE OFF ONTARIO INTO NRN ONONDAGA. HRRR HAS THE BEST FCST FOR
THE CRNT PSN OF THE BAND...BUT THEN QUICKLY WITHDRAWS THE BAND
BACK TO THE LAKE BY 03Z. WRF IS TOO FAR SOUTH...BUT MAINTAINS THE
BAND WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE...BUT FOR IT TO
WORK...MOST BE A BLEND OF THE TWO SHRT TERM MODELS WITH PSN AND
DURATION.

OTRW...JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO THE TEMPS. PRVS DISC BLO.

330 PM EST UPDATE...
RADAR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND FAR NORTHERN PA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
WE LOSE HEATING FROM THE SUN SINCE THESE SHOWERS ARE CONVECTIVE
BASED. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AND
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THEY MAY RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING... CLOUD COVERAGE WILL START TO
DISSIPATE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECT WHERE THE SINGLE LAKE
EFFECT BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE LOW LVL MEAN FLOW WILL BE
NEAR 300 DEGREES AND THERE IS ENOUGH OF A TEMP CONTRAST FROM THE
LAKE TO 700 MB THAT A LE BAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SINGLE BAND WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER
THE COUNTIES OF CAYUGA... ONONDAGA... MADISON AND SOUTHERN ONEIDA
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME THAT FELT THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY
WAS NECESSARY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWEST 5000 FT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. DUE
TO LIMITED MOISTURE... DECIDED TO KEEP AT ADVISORY LEVEL AND NOT
WARNING AS ONLY 4-7 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN TUESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE
QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING SKY
COVERAGE DECREASING FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY
CLEAR. WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY MAKING IT A BEAUTIFUL DAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF WL BE MVG THRU THE SRN PLAIN AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACRS
THE NRN GULF BY 18Z WED. LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN TWO DIFFERENT
CAMPS WITH NEWD MVMNT OF IMPENDING COASTAL STORM. ALL MODELS
INDICATE A GNRLY MVMNT WITH THE SFC LOW FM PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AT
00Z THUR TO CAPE COD BY 00Z FRIDAY, SKIRTING THE NC COAST 12Z
THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES REVOLVE ARND HOW FAR WEST THE PCPN CAN WRAP
BACK ARND. 12Z GFS AND NAM HOLD ONTO DRY AIR FM THE SFC HIGH
LONGER THAN DOES THE EC AND CMC. EC IS ALSO MORE BULLISH WITH H5
LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT GOES NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITH DEFORMATION
BAND PROGGED ACRS PORTION OF THE AREA THUR AFTN. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT EURO HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING QUITE A BIT OVR THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS WHILE GFS HAS STAYED THE COURSE WITH A FURTHER EAST
TRACK. HWVR, SYSTEM IN QUESTION STILL HAS NOT COME ONSHORE ACRS
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND IS NOT YET IN THE UPR AIR NETWORK
SO ALL OF THIS CUD CHANGE.

AS IT STANDS NOW, HV BLENDED IN THE GMOS WITH THE EURO FOR THE
GRIDS, WHICH INDICATES LKLY POPS ACRS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW, HV CALLED IT SNOW AND WL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
PIN DOWN PTYPE FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT, WHICH WE ARE NOT EVEN SURE
WE WILL RECEIVE YET.

AFT THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THUR NGT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON NW FLOW. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER CLIPPER MVG IN
FRI NGT. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONT INTO THE WEEKEND, THO BRIEF
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVRHD ON SUNDAY AND SHUT PCPN OFF.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ON NW FLOW. THINKING IS THAT MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT AT KSYR AND KRME THROUGH MORNING WITH
OCNL IFR VSBYS EXPECTED. IFR FIRST SEVERAL HRS AT KSYR BEFORE BAND
BECOMES MORE CELLULAR DURING PEAK HEATING AND LIFTS NORTH. BAND
LOOKS TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO KSYR AFTER 00Z TONIGHT, PRODUCING IFR
SNOW THROUGH 08Z. AFTER THIS TIME, MVFR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME, THOUGH RETRACTING BACK TOWARD THE
LAKE SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON LEAVING JUST MVFR CIGS IN ITS WAKE.

AT KRME, EXPECT IFR VSBYS FROM 20Z-24Z AS BAND LIFTS TO THE NORTH,
THEN MVFR AFTER 00Z THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AT KITH
THROUGH 02Z WILL BECOME VFR WITH NO SNOW AS FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM
CAYUGA LAKE THOUGH STILL A SCT 2500FT DECK. KELM AND KBGM SHOULD
SEE MVFR SNOW THROUGH 23Z OR SO AS DIURNAL BLOSSOMING OF SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURS. KAVP EXPECTED TO BE VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.

WNW WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT/WED...VFR.

LATE WED NGT/THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR ITS TRACK. BEST
CHANCE KAVP.

FRI/FRI NGT...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES.

SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN, MAINLY CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ017-
018-036-037.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

932 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GROUND
TRUTH REPORTS INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2
OR 3 HOURS. THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TO OUR
WEST AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY BECOMES HEAVIER AND WIDESPREAD BY
MORNING. BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THINK MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET. GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAP...3KM HRRR AND EMC
WRF SHOWING PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD NEAR THE COAST
AROUND 09Z TO 10Z OR SO. DID REMOVE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER THE CWA
BEFORE MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR FREEZING AND CONTINUED
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THERE. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS CURRENT WARNING/WATCH STATUS REMAINS THE
SAME.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE VORTICITY ALOFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE
MENTION OF SLEET/SNOW MIX PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND ADD IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 7/8 AM TUES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRYING OF THE -12 TO -20 C SNOW GROWTH REGION AROUND 06-12Z.
OVERALL QPF APPEARS VERY LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH SURFACE WEDGE IN EFFECT...TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FA...AND SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. PTYPE WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW OR SNOW AND SLEET MIX OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS...AS MODEL SNDGS INDICATE A SATURATED COLUMN NEAR OR
BELOW 0C. QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUE WHERE HIGH PRES WILL BE RIDGING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION AND THEREFORE PRECIP PRODUCTION WILL BE SPENT IN
SATURATING THE COLUMN HERE. FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SNOW SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS THRU TUESDAY EVENING
WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY BE 1-2 INCHES NORTH WHERE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT, AND 2-4 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA WHERE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS POSTED.

MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK POSSIBLE
IN THE WINTER PRECIP LATE TUE EVENING INTO EARLY WED MORNING...AS
MAIN AREA OF WAA LIFT SHUNTS EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST. ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT NW OF THE SFC LOW TRACK WILL PUSH THRU
THE FORECAST AREA WED MORNING. WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN AS
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. EXPECT A TRANSITION
OF PRECIP TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE FORENOON WEDNESDAY THEN
TO RAIN FROM COASTAL SECTIONS TO INLAND AREAS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WED AFTN HAVE HELD ONTO A SLEET RAIN MIX OVER FAR INLAND AREA IN
CASE SOME RESIDUAL COLDER AIR FAILS TO SCOUR OUT. THE MAIN THREAT
FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED LATE TUE NIGHT THRU MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY WITH ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF ICE ACCRETION, HEAVIEST OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS.

PTYPE LOOKS TO BECOME ALL RAIN BY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE COUPLED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS MIX IN WITH RAIN AS
TEMPS FALL THU AFTN BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN FURTHER FINE TUNE
DETAILS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SUNDAY.
THESE SYSTEMS MAY BE MOISTURE STARVED...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM FRIDAY
LOOKS THE MOST SATURATED OUT OF THE TWO. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAINLY A
DRY SYSTEM SUNDAY WITH NO POPS MENTIONED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. ANTICIPATE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...EXCEPT FOR KISO.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AND THE KPGV TAF SITE. THINK THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIP MOVING TO THE
SOUTHERN AREAS BY 06Z TO 08Z. EXPECT ANY LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO SNOW/SLEET TUESDAY MORNING. PGV/ISO LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN
SNOW WHILE OAJ/EWN COULD SEE GREATER DURATION OF SLEET. COULD SEE
VSBYS FALL BELOW MVFR LEVELS DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS (WITH PERIODS OF IFR) THRU WED MORNING
THEN IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE A
FAIRLY DRY TAF PERIOD WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ONLY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
HENCE...VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM MON...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS. DIAMOND BUOY GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS WITH HATTERAS
COAST GUARD STATION GUSTING TO 24 KNOTS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 6
FOOT RANGE. THESE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH INTO TUESDAY.
MADE NO BIG CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THRU THURSDAY. THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE WEST AROUND 10-15KTS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. SEAS 3-5FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-103-104.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/LEP
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/BTC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1233 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS
LED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NWS ILN FORECAST AREA. WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH (WHERE COLD
ADVECTION IS BEGINNING) HAS LED TO SOME SMALL AREAS OF
ENHANCEMENT. ONE BAND THAT SET UP ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA PRODUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE AND QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO (EVEN UP TO THREE) INCHES. ASIDE FROM JUST
THE SNOW...VISIBILITIES ARE LOW AROUND THE AREA ANYWAY...WITH SOME
MIST OR FOG ALSO PRESENT. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE
SATURATED AS THE SNOW HAS BEGUN...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO HAVE
ENDED.

THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL OHIO QUITE NICELY...AND SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WERE MINOR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY SNOWFALL IS NOW
ENTERING THE ILN CWA...THOUGH FLURRIES ARE NOTED ON SURFACE OBS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF INDIANA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL START OUT THE NEAR TERM. SNOW EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN CLEAR OFF TO THE
EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF
I-70 WHERE FORCING IS A BIT BETTER AND SNOW MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES THERE. FURTHER SOUTH SNOW WILL ONLY
OCCUR FOR A BRIEF TIME AND MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS HEADING SOUTH WITH ONLY A
DUSTING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS FORECAST CLOSE TO MOS
CONSENSUS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
IMPULSE TONIGHT SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS COLDER GFS MOS. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND
EVEN JUST LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND
AMPLIFICATION OF SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SYSTEM PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS
TIMING UNCERTAINTY WHETHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MODERATE ALTHOUGH STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY 18Z...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES. WHILE LIGHT SNOW MAY KEEP SLIGHTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT COLUMBUS...THE REST OF
THE TAFS WILL REMAIN DRY.

CLEARING IS WORKING INTO INDIANA...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE VFR
CEILING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE TAFS IS A LITTLE BIT
UNCERTAIN...BUT FORECAST TRENDS ARE POINTING TOWARD A SCOURING OF
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE ONLY PATCHES OF MVFR
CLOUDS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1000 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS
CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING TO THE
MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE IFR TO LIFR
CATEGORIES THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
ADDITIONAL LOWER CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES KCVG
AND KLUK DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

511 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KMLC... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL OTHER SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR AT OKLAHOMA SITES AND MVFR TO IFR AT ARKANSAS SITES OVERNIGHT
AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NUISANCE MINOR SNOW TONIGHT WITH UPPER SYSTEM.
AMPLE MODEL TO MODEL & WITHIN MODEL DIFFERENCES.
12Z WRF WAS INITIALLY DRY EXCEPT OSAGE COUNTY...
18Z WRF NOW PAINTS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
TULSA METRO INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GFS SNOW
LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING AND ECMWF AS DRY AS
12Z WRF. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AND REGIONAL RADAR
SUGGEST A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF SNOW. EARLIER
ADVISORY EXPANDED A TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH TO
INCLUDE TULSA METRO AREA. DOUBT AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL ONE INCH
SNOW OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION BUT WILL LEAVE
CURRENT ADVISORY ALONE... EXCEPT TO ADD CHOCTAW
COUNTY TO AVOID A DONUT HOLE. EVENING SHIFT CAN
WRESTLE WITH ANY HEADLINES WHEN PRECIP ACTUALLY
STARTS IN CWA.

BIG NEWS IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BEGINS AT
MID WEEK..THE END OF WINTER HERE? AS MEAN RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE ROCKIES. NEXT WEEKEND DRY / ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR
OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR
ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

249 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL
AND RADAR RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHERN CAL. THE RAP SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS EVENING, BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THEN A FEW TICKS ON
THE RAIN GAGE. THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL QUICKLY ZIP EAST AND
WE`LL SEE STEADY PRECIPITATION DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, I`M NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION. WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY IN
SOUTHERN OREGON.

A WEAK FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST RANGE...NORTHWEST DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND NORTHERN CASCADES. NORTHERN CAL AND MUCH OF THE EASTSIDE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG
UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE I`M FAIRLY
CONFIDENT WE`LL REMAIN DRY.

OF BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY AND TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION AIMED
RIGHT AT US. THE GFS SHOWS 925 MB WINDS PUSHING 65 KTS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. IF THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT, THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING A
HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTH COAST.

AT THE SAME TIME, MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE
COAST RANGE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO HAVE PRECIP AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
RANGE, 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. KEEP IN MID THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND THE
SPECIFICS OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD CHANGE. EVEN THOUGH RIVER
FLOWS HAVE BEEN LOW, THEY WILL COME UP AND IF WE GET A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION, THEY WILL COME UP AND
IF NOTHING ELSE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAPID RISES ALONG SOME OF
THE SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
HIGH (BETWEEN 7500 AND 8000 FEET) ON WEDNESDAY -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
FRONTS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE WET AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND A LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA.

THE 12Z MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE PACNW EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, MODELS ARE
ALSO INDICATING A PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AIMED
AT THE AREA. THE GFS AND GEFS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ORIGINATING FROM NEAR HAWAII AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HIGH
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS, MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. ALSO
AS THE STRONG FRONT MOVES INLAND, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SUMMER LAKE AND SHASTA VALLEY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IN PARTICULAR LINGERS THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD MOISTURE WOULD PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GEFS
PUSH THE FRONT INLAND FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

THEN ON SATURDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER MODERATE TO
STRONG FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA. THE GFS, GEFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST EARLY SATURDAY
THEN INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EMCWF DEPICTS THE LOW CENTER FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND WOULD SUPPORT AND INCREASED CHANCE FOR
STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, POSSIBLY DOWN TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET. /CC

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 09/18Z TAF CYCLE.

A LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING BUT VALLEYS IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS EVENING AND CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
ALSO EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. /CC

.MARINE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH AND A LOW WILL MOVING INLAND TO THE
SOUTH. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY. THEN EXPECT SEVERAL STRONGER FRONTS TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
GRADUALLY LOWER ON THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING CONTINUED
VERY STEEP TO STEEP SEAS TO THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
FRONTS ARE POSSIBLY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. /CC

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

900 AM PST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL KEEP A COLD EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE GORGE INTO MON MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IN AND NEAR THE
GORGE. MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL RETURN LATER MON AND REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES IN OFF THE PACIFIC BRINGING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN.
&&

.UPDATE...ALSO WILL ADD THE FOG INTO THE GRIDS AND CUT TEMPS. WARM
ADVECTION OVER COLD SNOW PACK WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FOG AND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. PLUS WITH NO SE GRADIENT UNTIL
OVERNIGHT THERE IS NO REAL WARM UP EXPECTED UNLESS THERE WERE CLOUD
BREAKS WHICH LOOK UNLIKELY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR OTHER PARTS OF
THE VALLEY FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS FAR AS FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES...INCLUDING ANY COLD AIR BANKED UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY.

925 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN AN EAST WEST
ORIENTATION EXTENDING FROM ABOUT SALEM/PORTLAND WESTWARD TO WELL
OFFSHORE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS A BIT MORE DIFFUSE FARTHER
SOUTH...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH PACIFIC ENERGY THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY 31-34....AND CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM
SALEM NORTHWARD WHERE READINGS ARE STILL GENERALLY IN THE 20S. THE
SALEM SOUNDING DOES SHOW A VERY LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WITH THE TOP OF
THE MOIST LAYER AT -7C SO NOT VERY DEEP SATURATION...AND KPTV TOWER
TEMP AT 1800 FEET SHOWS 34F...SO AT LEAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN
PRECIP TYPE BEING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

THE QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
APPROACHING SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
GRAZE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHAT
TEMPERATURES WILL DO. NOW FORTUNATELY MOST MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT QPF
WITH THIS...FROM VERY LITTLE TO UP TO MAYBE 0.05".LATEST RAP AND HRRR
KEEP THE DRIZZLE/LIGHT PRECIP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN AS THE WAVE OFFSHORE MOVES CLOSER THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO WILL EXTEND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO POCKETS OF COLD AIR STILL TRAPPED IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS OF THE COAST RANGE...WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA SO WILL ALSO
HAVE THE ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AS THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES. THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS
THE DAY TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH NOT MUCH. MEANWHILE WITH
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SNOW PACK THERE IS SOME FOG AND VERY LOW
STRATUS IN PLACE..WITH DENSE FOG AROUND EUGENE. AND FOG INCREASING
THROUGH THE VALLEY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE MOISTURE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND THEN WE GET A BREAK FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS IN
PORTLAND SUGGEST THAT INITIAL P-TYPE MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST 7 AM. YOU COULD REASONABLY ARGUE THAT THERE STILL
COULD BE POCKETS OF TRAPPED COLD LOW LEVEL AIR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
THAT WILL NOT BE SCOURED OUT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM COMES IN...WITH A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD NORTH. THE MORNING PRECIP IS LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH BUT COULD FEASIBLY BE ALL FREEZING RAIN IN THE EAST METRO
AREA...AND CONFINED EAST OF I-205 BY LATER MORNING. RAW SOUNDING
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN SUSPECT TO THIS POINT WITH THE LOW LEVEL AIR
WOULD SUGGEST THIS THREAT GOES AWAY BETWEEN 15Z-18Z AS THE PRECIP IS
GOING IN...BUT THERE IS STILL AN EAST GRADIENT THROUGH THE
GORGE...SO IT IS THE MORNING PERIOD THAT IS IN QUESTION. IT COULD
BE SOONER BUT WELL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTH GRADIENT.

THE GORGE CONTINUES A CHANCE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE EAST
GRADIENT GETS WASHED AWAY. /KMD

.SHORT TERM...DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE CREPT BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING IN EUGENE THOUGH...BUT SOUTH WINDS HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE
AND REALIZE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. CONSIDERING MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SCOUR OUT OF THIS COLD
POOL POORLY AROUND EUGENE...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE WARM UP ACROSS
THE REST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY REMAINS LOW.
NONETHELESS...WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 31F TO 32F
RANGE FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTHWARD...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN
FURTHER NORTH THAT MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
LATER THIS MORNING.

CLOSER TO PORTLAND...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS MORE TRICKY WITH
COLD AIR CONTINUING TO POOR OUT OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S. THE KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE
GRADIENT JUST DIPPED UNDER 5MB. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL LOWER CLOSER
TO 2MB THIS MORNING...WHICH IS LIKELY OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT...I KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE PORTLAND AIRPORT BELOW FREEZING...WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB WARM FRONT APPROACHES...PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH MAY ALSO CAUSE COLD
AIR TO BANK UP AGAINST THE COAST RANGE IN WESTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTY...AND PERHAPS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS MCMINNVILLE. THIS COULD MAKE
THESE LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO STAYING BELOW FREEZING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE. AS A RESULT...I KEPT A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

IN THE MEANTIME...DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AREA AND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. AS A RESULT...A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE METRO...AND A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WHERE GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE RESIDES. ICE OR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT...LIKELY ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST...BUT
THIS WILL NONETHELESS CONTINUE TO ADD THE MESS ALREADY IN PLACE.
/NEUMAN

WHATEVER COLD AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD ON IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY
AND THROUGH THE GORGE IS LIKELY TO FINALLY BE OVERWHELMED DURING THE
DAY MON. OFFSHORE PRES GRADIENTS WHICH HOLD ON IN MOST MODELS
THROUGH 12Z MON RELAX CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES INLAND AND A SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS DEVELOPS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION HOWEVER APPEAR HEADED N OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
POPS THOUGH MON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILS THE WARM FRONT AND DIPS
INTO NW OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS SOME THREAT OF RAIN IN MON NIGHT AND TUE.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY TUE AS MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER A DEEP MOIST LAYER SEEN ON 290K AND
300K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. WITH A MORE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN MON INTO
TUE...WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LIKE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH A ZONAL FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS EFFECTIVELY SHOULD
BRING WET WEATHER AT TIMES WITH TEMPS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A RATHER WET LOOKING
SYSTEM IN TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS LIKE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTS. A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW TRACK LIKE THE 06Z
GFS RUN WOULD BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST...BUT
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT REMAINS AT THIS POINT DUE TO MODEL VARIANCES.
ANOTHER WET SYSTEM IS AGREED UPON AROUND THU NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH
HIGHEST POPS FOR THESE TWO SYSTEMS. BEYOND THAT MODELS STRUGGLE A
BIT WITH AGREEING ON DETAILS...BUT OVERALL FEEL FROM THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED IS THAT WEAKER SYSTEMS WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...PLENTY OF IFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT MAINTAINING NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH AREAS
OF -FZDZ IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS NORTH OF KSLE. THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE LOWER LAYER COLDER AIR
TODAY...CONFINING ANY FREEZING PRECIP TO NEAR THE COLUMBIA
GORGE...KPDX AND INTO SW WA. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR AND LOW-END VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO MVFR OR
IFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIFR. MTNS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z. INTERMITTENT -FZDZ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS
LOOK TO IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AND POSSIBLY TO LOW-END
VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...AND THEN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT -5 MB AT
16Z AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND THAT VALUE THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING
IN 20-30KT GUSTS AT THE WEST END OF THE GORGE. WEISHAAR

.MARINE...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN TO 15 KT OR LESS AND WILL STAY AT OR BELOW
THAT LEVEL THROUGH THIS EVENING. NEXT WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE
WATERS THIS EVENING...AND BY MIDNIGHT SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS RAMP
UP TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ALREADY IN PLACE. MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM ENTERS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTERNOON WITH SOLID GALES DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING. COULD
SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 KT WITH THIS ONE. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH-
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR EVEN GALE WIND SPEEDS.

SEAS TO STAY AROUND 5-6 FT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT RISE ABOUT 10 FT
TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS PUSHING NEAR 15 FT THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. WEISHAAR

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST TODAY FOR GREATER
PORTLAND METRO AREA...LOWER COLUMBIA...NORTH OREGON COAST
RANGE.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST TODAY FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA...WILLAPA HILLS...AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR
IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM
PST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

841 AM PST SUN FEB 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING OVER THE REGION. SEXTON SUMMIT REPORTED LIGHT RAIN LAST
HOUR, BUT NOTHING IN THE MOST RECENT REPORT. THE 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP RUN SHOWS LITTLE OF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER OREGON, BUT
INCREASING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT WAVE
REACHES THE COAST. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR ALL AREAS THIS
MORNING AND MAINLY OVER OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S GOING TO BE A
FINE LINE FROM NEARLY NOTHING TO STEADY RAIN ALONG THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM KEEP MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN CAL TONIGHT AND NOT
MUCH ELSE ON OREGON. WE`LL LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DETAIL THIS
MORNING. -PETRUCELLI

.AVIATION...

.MARINE...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM PST SUN FEB 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...TWO-DAY LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA
ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST AND COAST RANGES WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
GENERALLY 0.50-1.00 INCH OF RAIN FELL OVER THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE
CASCADES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHILE
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH WERE OBSERVED OVER MANY OF THE
VALLEYS/BASINS OF THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WHILE
THIS WAS MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION, IT REALLY HASN`T PUT MUCH OF A
DENT IN THE DEFICITS SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER. WE`LL NEED SEVERAL
MORE OF THESE EVENTS IN THE NEXT MONTH OR SO TO REALLY MAKE UP FOR
LOST TIME.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY
RESULTING IN SOME MORE RAIN FOR AREAS THAT BADLY NEED IT.
WE`VE SEEN SNOW LEVELS RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE 6000 FEET IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, BUT THEY`RE AROUND 5000-5500 FEET IN SW OREGON. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN OMINOUS-LOOKING SHIELD OF MID-
HIGH CLOUD MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME IS DIRECTED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THIS TIME AROUND WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE OR/CA
BORDER. RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN SNEAKING
NORTHWARD INTO SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS RAIN SHIELD TO EXPAND ACROSS NORCAL DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE ACROSS SW OREGON AND
DON`T EXPECT MUCH TO HIT THE RAIN GAUGES IN THE VALLEYS WITH A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE. THERE MAY BE A TENTH TO TWO-
TENTHS IN THE COAST RANGES, SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN EXPECTED IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO THIS
EVENING THEN MOVE INTO NEVADA BY MONDAY MORNING...EFFECTIVELY
SHUTTING OFF THE FAUCET FOR A WHILE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONT TO THE COAST MONDAY, BUT IT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS FROM BROOKINGS NORTHWARD, BUT SHOWERS CHANCES
DIMINISH FARTHER INLAND AND PROBABLY DO NOT GET MUCH PAST THE
CASCADE CREST. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SERIES OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AT THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN THE FIRST
SYSTEM, PREFERRING TO BRING IT ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO, HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS HERE TO SLOW THINGS DOWN
A BIT. SPILDE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM OVER THE REGION AS WELL AS
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FRONTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVE LOWS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH FOR THIS EVENT, GENERALLY AT
OR ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE FIRST OF THESE LOWS MOVES INLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THEN ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THIS SECOND LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MSLP FIELD. SO HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL EXPECT THESE
SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MODELS SHOW A WESTERLY 700 MB JET OF 55 TO
75 KT MOVING OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY EVENING ANOTHER JET OF 50 TO
60 KT IS POSSIBLE. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE SUMMER LAKE AND SHASTA VALLEY
AREAS.

VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES THURSDAY WITH THE GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BUILD THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, LOWERING TO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BRING A BRIEF DRYING TREND
THOUGH. ON SATURDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MOVING INLAND. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET THEN LOWER
BEHIND THE FRONT, POSSIBLY DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET. AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A UPPER LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA,
EXPECT THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE BEYOND SATURDAY. /CC

AVIATION...CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR
OR BETTER EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH LOCAL IFR IS EXPECTED AT
THE COAST, ESPECIALLY FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTH. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING SPREADING PRECIPITATION
INTO SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO
IT WILL BE RAIN. THIS COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR LATER THIS
MORNING IN SOME AREAS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OR/CA BORDER. -WRIGHT/SPILDE

MARINE...ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER TODAY WITH WIND WAVE
DOMINATED SEAS HAVING TRANSITIONED TO A FRESH SOUTHWEST SWELL. THIS
SWELL IS MODERATE, HAS A SHORT PERIOD, AND WILL MIX WITH A SHORT
PERIOD WEST SWELL TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
REMAIN MODERATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN ADDITIONAL
FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
-WRIGHT/SPILDE

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1122 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The cold front has moved through KABI with north winds around 12
kts. Low clouds and fog to the north of this front have moved to
within 20 nm of KABI but seemed to have stalled over the past half
hour. With peak heating nigh, my gut says the clouds will generally
remain north of KABI through mid-afternoon. I did include a tempo
beginning at 20z for BKN004, however, just in case these clouds do
slip a bit farther south. Once insolation begins to wane, this front
will accelerate south, moving across the remainder of the area
during the evening hours. These low clouds and fog will follow suit,
with IFR (or worse) conditions anticipated areawide overnight
through 18z Monday. I did include freezing drizzle at KABI, KSJT,
and KBBD beginning late evening with visibilities of 3 miles or
less. Accumulations are expected to be light, but present,
nonetheless.

Johnson

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/

UPDATE...
A quick forecast update was sent out to bring current temperatures
back in line with recent trends. Temperatures remain near freezing
along the I-10 corridor with a mixture of 30s and 40s across most of
the remaining counties. However, the leading edge of a strong cold
front has moved into the Big Country, dropping temperatures to near
30 degrees across Haskell, Throckmorton, and Shackelford Counties.
We continue to receive reports of freezing fog across this area but
as temperatures slowly warm, the potential for additional ice
accumulations will decrease. Visibilities should slowly improve so
no dense fog advisory will be issued. I also increased sky cover to
account for the increase in high clouds. Max temps were left alone
for now but I`ll continue to watch the progress of the cold front
and adjust forecast temperatures as needed.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected today at the TAF sites. An initial
cold front will sag south to KABI 17Z-18Z, resulting in a shift
to northeast winds 5-10 KT. Any fog this morning and low cloud
cover today are expected to remain north of Abilene. For the
other TAF sites, winds today will be generally southwest at
6-12 KT. A reinforced cold front will push south across central and
southern sections of West Central Texas tonight. The front should
arrive at KSJT 02-03Z, and should reach the Interstate 10 corridor
07Z-08Z. Winds will shift to the northeast with the frontal passage.
A degradation of conditions from VFR to IFR and possibly LIFR is
expected, from north to south tonight. This will occur as low
cloud cover expands to the south behind the front, with areas of
drizzle and freezing drizzle developing.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A nearly stationary surface boundary extends from the eastern Texas
Panhandle south to just northeast of Jayton, then east across
Haskell and Throckmorton Counties. Temperatures are colder behind
east/north of this boundary, where low cloudiness has filled in with
areas of freezing fog. A strong cold front is moving south across
Kansas. The NAM12 and RUC13 models appear to have the best handle on
this boundary...and have it sagging south as a cold front to the
Interstate 20 corridor by 11 AM to Noon, and then drifting a little
farther south early this afternoon. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
strong cold front will quickly move south today, entering the Big
Country this afternoon and overtaking the lead boundary by late
afternoon or evening.

Carrying the inherited mention of fog early this morning across the
area roughly north of a Rotan to Albany line, with freezing fog in
the northern parts of Haskell and Throckmorton Counties where
temperatures are at or just below freezing. With the marginally
freezing temperatures and visibility with the fog to stay above one
mile, not expecting any road ice problems this morning aross that
area. Low cloud cover will be persistent through the day today
across Haskell and Throckmorton counties.

Temperature forecast today is tricky across the Big Country (area
along/north of Interstate 20) with the initial frontal boundary.
Made reductions across that area, where highs should be reached
early this afternoon before temperatures level off and then slowly
drop. Highs across that area are expected to range from the upper
30s/near 40 in Haskell and Throckmorton Counties, to the mid to
upper 50s along Interstate 20 and 60s just south of I-20. Farther to
the south, temperatures will be warm again today, with afternoon
highs in the 70s to near 80 with mostly sunny skies.

This evening and tonight, the reinforced cold front will push south
through our central and southern counties, reaching the Interstate
10 corridor by 2 AM. Model boundary layer moisture fields indicate
extensive low cloud cover developing south across West Central Texas
behind the cold front, with areas of drizzle developing. With strong
cold air advection, temperatures will drop to below freezing tonight
across our northern and central counties, to the mid/upper 30s along
and south of Interstate 10. With a weak overrunning pattern setting
up and given the extent of boundary layer moistening, carrying areas
of drizzle and freezing drizzle tonight until mid-morning Monday,
with freezing drizzle mentioned where temperatures drop below
freezing.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Winter precipitation possible Monday night and Tuesday...

A cold surface ridge will be entrenched across the area Monday
into Tuesday with temperatures remaining well below normal. An
upper level trough will approach the area on Monday and move
across the area on Tuesday. Still looks like the best chance
for precipitation will be on Tuesday when lift from the upper
trough will be greatest. Temperatures will be cold Monday and
Tuesday with highs both days in the 30s across much of the area
with the exception of far southern counties where some low to
mid 40s are expected. Temperatures will fall into the 20s areawide
Monday night.

Made only minor changes to the forecast Monday night and Tuesday,
mainly for precipitation type. Model forecast soundings continue
to show a substantial warm layer aloft for much of this time
period and a lack of moisture within the dendritic growth zone.
This type of profile will favor a combination of freezing rain and
sleet Monday night into Tuesday morning, with rain across southern
sections and a winter mix across northern sections by Tuesday
afternoon. Profiles due appear a bit more favorable for some snow
to mix in mainly north of I-20 on Tuesday. At the present time,
precipitation amounts are expected to be very light for this
event, generally one tenth inch or less water equivalent with
only minor snow and ice accumulations.

Dry and warmer weather returns to the area Wednesday through
Saturday with above normal temperatures through the period. The
only mentionable feature will be a weak front on Saturday, with
only slightly cooler temperatures into Sunday.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 25 36 23 37 / 0 10 10 20 30
San Angelo 79 30 41 26 39 / 0 10 10 20 30
Junction 79 37 45 29 42 / 0 10 20 20 30

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

848 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.UPDATE...
A quick forecast update was sent out to bring current temperatures
back in line with recent trends. Temperatures remain near freezing
along the I-10 corridor with a mixture of 30s and 40s across most of
the remaining counties. However, the leading edge of a strong cold
front has moved into the Big Country, dropping temperatures to near
30 degrees across Haskell, Throckmorton, and Shackelford Counties.
We continue to receive reports of freezing fog across this area but
as temperatures slowly warm, the potential for additional ice
accumulations will decrease. Visibilities should slowly improve so
no dense fog advisory will be issued. I also increased sky cover to
account for the increase in high clouds. Max temps were left alone
for now but I`ll continue to watch the progress of the cold front
and adjust forecast temperatures as needed.

Johnson

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

.Winter precipitation possible Monday night and Tuesday...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 25 36 23 37 / 5 10 10 20 30
San Angelo 79 30 41 26 39 / 0 10 10 20 30
Junction 79 37 45 29 42 / 0 10 20 20 30

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

600 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

..Winter precipitation possible Monday night and Tuesday...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 25 36 23 37 / 5 10 10 20 30
San Angelo 79 30 41 26 39 / 0 10 10 20 30
Junction 79 37 45 29 42 / 0 10 20 20 30

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

600 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

..Winter precipitation possible Monday night and Tuesday...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 25 36 23 37 / 5 10 10 20 30
San Angelo 79 30 41 26 39 / 0 10 10 20 30
Junction 79 37 45 29 42 / 0 10 20 20 30

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

459 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

...Winter precipitation possible Monday night and Tuesday...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 25 36 23 37 / 5 10 10 20 30
San Angelo 79 30 41 26 39 / 0 10 10 20 30
Junction 79 37 45 30 42 / 0 10 20 20 30

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

19/24

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

1049 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AMARILLO TAF
UNTIL AROUND 18Z TO 21Z SUNDAY AND AROUND 14Z TO 17Z SUNDAY AT THE
DALHART TAF SITE...BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO IFR OR VLIFR TO IFR AT
THE GUYMON TAF SITE BY 10Z TO 13Z SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG WILL SPREAD WEST AND SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SCHNEIDER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/

UPDATE...
ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWING LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DEVELOPING OR SPREADING WEST FROM OFF THE
CAPROCK TO NEAR A TEXAS COUNTY OKLAHOMA TO CLARENDON TEXAS LINE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS AS A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY ONCE
AGAIN BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. ALSO...THE
FREEZING FOG MAY SPREAD FURTHER WEST INTO THE AMARILLO AND CANYON
AREAS AND ANOTHER UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...WILL BRING THE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG AS FAR WEST...FOR THE MOMENT...TO A TEXAS
COUNTY TO CLARENDON LINE AND WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON A FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY WITH THE STIPULATION THAT ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATER ON.

ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY. LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GUYMON TAF SITE AROUND 08Z
TO 11Z SUNDAY...ACROSS THE AMARILLO AND DALHART TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
TO 20 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY WILL BECOME IFR TO MVFR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND DROPPING TO VLIFR TO LIFR AT THE GUYMON TAF SITE AFTER
12Z TO 14Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY 63 DEGREES AT THE NWS AMARILLO OFFICE...FIRST TIME
AMARILLO HAS BEEN ABOVE 50 OR 60 DEGREES SINCE JANUARY 30. MOST OF
THE AREA IS WARM EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PANHANDLES. THE WARMING IN THESE LOCATIONS IS BEING INHIBITED BY
SNOW PACK...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THESE AREAS AS THEY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT
ISSUE A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE LAST NIGHT
LOCATIONS WITH A 6 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION RECEIVED FOG BUT
MOISTER AREAS DID NOT. MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT TILL WE SEE THE WHITES OF
THE FREEZING FOGS EYES TO SEE WHERE PATCHY FOG MIGHT SET UP.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH IN THE EARLY AM HOURS TOMORROW AND KNOCK
BACK TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN
THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TOMORROW BUT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY DRY. MODELS ARE STILL COMING IN WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS MOST OF OUR AREA DRY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. IF SNOW DOES FALL IN OUR AREA IT LOOKS TO BE VERY
LIGHT.

REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE FIFTIES AND SIXTIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER.

11/08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

704 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EST SUNDAY...

TN/KY RADAR SHOWING HIGHER REFLECTIVITY WITH PRECIP AND SNOW BEING
REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KY. HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A FULL
HANDLE ON THIS...BUT THEN IT DIMINISHES IT AS IT MOVES IT INTO WV
BY LATE MORNING. 12Z RNK SOUNDING COMING IN SHOWING LOW LVL
MOISTURE. OUR RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS FADING ACROSS THE
MTNS OF CRAIG COUNTY. COULD STILL SEE OVER TOWARD WV/ALLEGHANYS
SOME PATCHY FZDZ OR DZ THIS MORNING. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
ARRIVING INTO THE MTNS OF WV EAST TOWARD HSP AROUND BY NOON...BUT
TAPERED POPS OFF SOME THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST RADAR/MODEL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WRN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
BRING A BETTER CONVERGENT PATTERN WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT TO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY. KEPT POPS HIGHER IN THE NW...THEN SHIFT THEM
TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT. THIS SEEMS TO BE A
CASE WHERE THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS ACROSS THE MTNS OF WV/ALLEGHANYS
AND THE ENE INTO NRN VA...AS UPPER PATTERN SHOWS SPLIT BETWEEN TWO
SHORTWAVES. SOUNDINGS FORECASTING MAINLY SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SUPPORT TO INCLUDE ICE PELLETS
EXISTS...ALTHOUGH SHORT LIVED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW
VA/NW NC THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STAYING UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WRN GREENBRIER TOPPING OUT WITH 2...WHILE REST OF
THE WRN SLOPES WILL GET AN INCH OR SO...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
NC MTNS. MODELS HINT AT EVEN AREAS NORTH OF ROANOKE AND LYNCHBURG
ALONG THE RIDGES COULD SEE A DUSTING TO JUST UNDER AN INCH.

AGAIN...THE CMC/NAM FAVOR CLEARING BEHIND THIS WAVE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS PIEDMONT. LEANED
TOWARD A CLOUDIER SOLUTION...AS THESE MODELS DID NOT PICK
INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE ONGOING SAT TRENDS...SO LEANED MY SKY
COVER FORECAST TOWARD A LOCAL WRF/MOSGUIDE SOLUTION. STILL COULD
SEE ENOUGH SUN IN THE SOUTHEAST TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 50S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HINDER TEMPS. TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE
TRICKY GIVEN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AND TIMING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV TO MID 40S NEW RIVER VALLEY/NC MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ROA-LYH...MID 50S SOUTHSIDE VA...NW NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT.

DECENT ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SEE GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THROUGH

TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE FAVORING WRN SLOPES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS POSSIBLE WRN GREENBRIER AND
LESS ELSEWHERE THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH A NORFOLK VA
TO ATL GA LINE OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING DUE TO PARALLEL UPPER
FLOW.

SKIES STAY CLOUDY IN THE WEST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME BREAKS
OUT EAST. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS SE WV...TO LOWER
30S PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. HOW FAR SOUTH DOES
THIS FRONT GO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS
QUESTIONABLE...CONSIDERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE
UNDER ZONAL FLOW. ALL 00Z MODELS ARE PUSHING THE FRONT DOWN INTO
THE GULF. JUST INLAND AND BEHIND THE FRONT...A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF STATES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN US MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER WAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE FOOT STEPS OF THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. IF
MOISTURE DOES ADVANCE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30 PERCENT) WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
NC/VA BORDER. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER PLAYER TO THIS GAME. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MID WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
THEN WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING COLD AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW TO HAVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW. THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...OUR
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE COLD DRY HIGH. THEREFORE I KEPT
ANY POPS IN THE PERIOD LOW AND TO THE SOUTH.

IT IS THE SECOND STRONGER WAVE THAT HAS ME MORE CONCERN. EVEN
THOUGH THIS WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE GULF STATES...OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE AND WARM NOSE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE P-TYPE
ISSUES FOR THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PER
00Z ECM. SINCE MODELS HAVE A DIFFERENT OPINION OF WHERE THE SECOND
WAVE TRACKS AND BEHAVES...WILL WAIT AND TACKLE THIS PROBLEM AT A
LATER TIME.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE PASSING OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST VARY GREATLY. GFSMOS FOR DANVILLE HAS A HIGH OF 46F WHILE THE
NAMMOS IS COLDER AT 38F. SINCE THE FRONT IS A SLOW MOVER AND A
WEST WIND DEVELOPS QUICKLY...LEANED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
WARMER GFSMOS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. ON TUESDAY...UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. I WENT EVEN COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE
WITH A COLD WEDGE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST FRIDAY...

BECAUSE OF THE GREAT VARIABILITY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTION...WILL LEAN TOWARDS HPCGUIDE SHAPED AWAY FROM THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF...AND MORE TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRACKS OF THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/CMC MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS
AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE...COMPARED TO GFS BEING SLOWER
AND WARMER WITH MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS WINTER STORM...HARD TO WORK OUT THE EXACT
DETAILS OF TIMING...TRACK AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. IN THIS PROGRESSIVE FLOW...A
COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START
COLD AND SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN...A
COOLING TEND IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EST SUNDAY...

KEEPING LOW CIGS AT BLF THIS MORNING AS UPSTREAM METARS INDICATE
AROUND 1-2KFT CIGS...AND BLF BEING HIGHER UP SHOULD SEE THE LOWER
SIDE OF THIS. MVFR CIGS AT BCB/LWB THIS MORNING AS WELL. PATCHY
FZDZ/DZ POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB UNTIL 15Z...BUT SFC OBS INDICATE
NOTHING...SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS. SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS
APPROACH ROANOKE THIS MORNING AND WILL SEE A FEW HOURS BEFORE
COMING BACK UP TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
MODELS ARE MAINLY KEEPING THREAT OF PRECIP IN LWB/BLF...WITH LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW. KEPT CIGS SUB VFR IN THE MTNS TODAY WHILE FROM BCB EAST
TOOK TO VFR. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP AND SHIFT FROM
VRB TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING TO WEST BETWEEN 17Z BLF/LWB TO 01Z
AT DAN. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ROA/BCB.

TONIGHT...THE UPSLOPE WEST FLOW WILL HAVE BLF/LWB AND BCB MVFR AND
LOWER. EAST OF THE MTNS...SHOULD BE VFR WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS.

FRONT SLOWS DOWN/STALLS SOUTH OF US MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING ALONG IT. AT THIS TIME...PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD BE LOW MONDAY...AND CIGS WILL BE MVFR WEST TO VFR EAST.

MODELS STILL ADVERTISING POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FROM OUR GENERAL
AREA SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST TUE-THU WITH A STRONGER LOW FORMING
ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME SNOW WOULD BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE
OVER OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLY RAIN MIXING IN AT DAN. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE LOW TRACK...STAY TUNED...BUT TRAVEL BY AIR
OVERALL DOES NO LOOK FAVORABLE MIDWEEK.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

359 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EST SUNDAY...

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO WRN TN WITH AREA
OF RETURNS ON RADAR...BUT PER SFC OBS...NOT MUCH OF THIS REACHING
THE GROUND. LATEST HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE WELL...AND THE
00Z ECMWF SNAGGED IT BETTER THAN THE NAM/GFS...WITH THE LOCAL WRF
NOT TOO BAD EITHER. NONETHELESS..THE MODELS SEEM TO FADE THIS
FEATURE AS IT HEADS EAST. HOWEVER...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
WRN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BRING A BETTER CONVERGENT
PATTERN WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT TO THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY. KEPT
POPS HIGHER IN THE NW...THEN SHIFT THEM TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT IN
THE NW NC PIEDMONT. THIS SEEMS TO BE A CASE WHERE THE BEST LIFT
SHIFTS ACROSS THE MTNS OF WV/ALLEGHANYS AND THE ENE INTO NRN
VA...AS UPPER PATTERN SHOWS SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES.
SOUNDINGS FORECASTING MAINLY SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME SUPPORT TO INCLUDE ICE PELLETS
EXISTS...ALTHOUGH SHORT LIVED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW
VA/NW NC THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SEE GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THROUGH

SKIES STAY CLOUDY IN THE WEST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME BREAKS
OUT EAST. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS SE WV...TO LOWER
30S PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SATURDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST FRIDAY...

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EST SATURDAY...

EXPECT A TREND TOWARD LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATE TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE MOUNTAINS. KBLF AND KLWB WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL CROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL KEEP
VFR CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AROUND KDAN AS THIS
WAVE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD AT
KBCB IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE SNOW FROM SATURDAY MORNING
HAS MELTED LEAVING THE GROUND WET. THERE MAY BE PATCHES OF MVFR
FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY
16Z/11AM...BUT NO IMPROVEMENT AT KLWB AND KBLF. THIS SHORT WAVE
PUSHES A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRONT THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT A RETURN OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THANKS TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SAME NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL YIELD DOWNSLOPE CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.
UPSLOPE AREAS MAY OCCASIONALLY HAVE MVFR CLOUDS BUT THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SETUP OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE POSSIBLY THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. SOME MODELS OFFER A
SOLUTION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FOR A LEAST A GENEROUS
PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME. OTHERS DO NOT OFFER SUCH A WET
SOLUTION BUT HAVE PIECES OF ENERGY GIVING GLANCING BLOWS OF
WEATHER AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/DS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

235 PM PST Sun Feb 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will see a break in the prolonged stretch of
winter weather tonight however that will come to an end by Monday
as a strong warm front moves into the area. The warm front will
begin to scour the cold air out of the valleys but before another
round of light to moderate snow is dumped across much of the
region. More fronts will track the region during the week. Each
will deliver periods of precipitation...however the valleys will
finally change from snow to rain as temperatures climb above
freezing for the first time this month. Meanwhile...significant
snows are expected to fall over most of the mountains.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Weather scenario for tonight will be markedly quieter
and drier than what we have experienced over the past several
nights. The latest satellite pictures continue to show a broad
plume of cloudiness covering most of the Inland Northwest save a
small portion of extreme NE Washington and the northern Panhandle
of Idaho. Meanwhile radar was only detecting a smattering of light
precipitation echoes over the SE corner of Washington and NC
Idaho. These echoes were the result of mid-level moisture and low-
level isentropic ascent combining for very light snow. The radar
echoes were finally reflecting what some of the model guidance was
showing...unlike earlier today. Both the NAM and HRRR were showing
this region of light precipitation persisting through mid-evening
before being shunted to the south. QPF amounts from this activity
should be very light with snowfall accumulations generally be an
inch or less. In most cases much less. Meanwhile the focus for the
later half of tonight will revolve around diffuse warm front
currently sweeping through SW Washington. This band of
precipitation will move into the northern Cascades before midnight
as it travels to the northeast. Not sure how far the precipitation
will cross over the Cascades as the isentropic ascent isn`t
terribly strong. Nonetheless we will raise precipitation chances
overnight for most of the Cascades and the Okanogan
Valley/Highlands. Once again precipitation amounts will remain
light. fx

Monday through Tuesday night...A very active and progressively wet
pattern will affect the region for the first part of the work week.
Two systems will impact the Inland Northwest with little evidence of
a break separating them. The first round of precipitation will start
Monday as a warm front spreads light snow across the forecast area.
Cold air will be in place at the surface but will eventually be
overrun by warm air in the mid levels being pushed into the area on
southerly flow. Initial light snow may change over to sleet or
freezing rain in the lower basin Monday evening. This threat will
spread north to the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area and Waterville
Plateau overnight. Warm air will eventually make it to the surface
across the southern valleys but p-type should remain snow for the
valleys north of I-90. We could see advisory snowfall amounts
accumulating for the east slopes of the Cascades and northeast
zones. The moisture plume is not as impressive as earlier advertised
with p-wats closer to normal for this first system so reaching
winter highlight criteria in the valleys is not a slam dunk. There
is not a true cold front with this system, but rather a wind shift
to the west that may bring a brief respite to the basin.

The second system follows right on the heels of the first and has a
much more impressive tap into deep Pacific moisture. QPF potential
will be in the 0.25 to 0.75 inches in the valleys with 1 to 2 inches
or even higher amounts in the mountains. The Palouse will see most
of this as rain. We will be watching local rivers carefully for
possible ice breakup and resultant flooding. The warm front will
push more warm air in from the south, changing precip over to rain
for the southern third of the forecast area Tuesday. Snow levels
will be on the rise and even the northernmost valleys could change
over to rain by Tuesday night. The mountain zones will likely
receive heavy snow from this extended event and the passes will be
affected. Winter highlights will likely be needed for portions of
the forecast area for this second system. Winds will strengthen
and become gusty starting Tuesday afternoon and continuing through
Wednesday. Warm air advection and gusty winds will aid in bringing
temperatures back up to normal readings and possibly above by
Tuesday night. /Kelch

Wednesday: Models still agree on a progressive unsettled weather
period through the remainder of the work week. Models are still
differing a bit on the details. Looks like a surface low coupled
with a wave riding along the westerly flow and a 120 kt upper
level jet streak will be moving through the Inland Northwest
Wednesday. Models do agree the heavier precipitation will fall
during the morning hours and by afternoon the heavier precip will
reside across the crest of the Cascade mountains and most of north
ID. This surface low is moving in from the southwest and will
therefore be ushering some slightly warmer temperatures. Warm
enough that most valley locations will not cool to below freezing
temps Wed morning...so the Wed event should be a rain event for a
pretty widespread area. The exception to this would be the
northern WA and ID valleys such as Omak, Republic, Colville and
Sandpoint where they could see wet snow before changing over to
rain sometime in the morning. The pressure gradient still looks
packed together to create south to west winds...mainly for
portions of the Columbia Basin, Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas.

Wednesday night through Thursday: Strong westerly flow prevails
which will keep showers in the forecast. There will be some dry
periods across portions of the Basin north through the Okanogan
Valley and Highlands because of downsloping off the Cascades.
Otherwise mostly cloudy with temperatures around average for this
time of the year. Southwest winds will remain elevated for the
Palouse and into portions of Spokane County.

Thursday night and Friday: We get an influx of moisture moving
into the area as a broad ridge builds over the Pac NW and a trough
moves towards southern Canada. The 12z EC as well as the 18Z GFS
have slowed the timing down a bit, but it looks as though sometime
Friday a front moves through. Currently models suggest some good
upslope flow into the Cascade valleys and Basin ahead of the front
Friday morning. Then by afternoon the Basin gets shadowed out as
the precipitation is more confined to eastern WA and north ID...and
the Cascade crest. Once again temps remain quite mild before the
front passes and so most valley locations should see rain. Once
again winds will be on the breezy side for portions of the Basin,
Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas. /Nisbet

Friday night through Sunday: A zonal flow pattern is expected to
keep this period pretty active. With a wave of precip exiting late
Friday, another wave is predicted to pass through the region
Saturday afternoon bringing another round of precip. There is a
slight warming trend with this pattern. Warmer temps could
generate a rain/snow mix for the lower Columbia Basin and some of
the valleys among the mountains if precip occurs during the day.
Snow is expected for the region for precip during the evening
hours. Winds will be breezy in the Palouse and Camas Prairie
regions with gusts around the mid 20s MPH. /JDC

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Very low confidence forecast as model guidance is
quite poor with extremely variable conditions over short
distances. Case in point the GEG-COE corridor. GEG was seeing
light snow and LIFR cigs while not far away COE was seeing no
snow and VFR cigs. In between SFF was seeing VFR conditions and
light snow. Meanwhile BUFKIT data for GEG EAT and PUW was showing
periods of snow through at least the first half of the
forecast...while SFF and COE are only expected to see several
hours of snow. Generally speaking the obs were not matching the
guidance...not even close. Best we can do is track the weather to
the shortwave trough currently over SC BC. This feature will pass
most of the sites between 21-23z...and we will keep a mention of
-SN or VCSH at least until it passes. Conditions will generally be
MVFR by brief IFR is possible mainly at GEG. At MWH and EAT
conditions will generally vary with cigs remaining between 025-050
ft. Hard to have much confidence in tonight`s forecast given the
track record of the models in the short-term. Suspect stratus clouds
will remain firmly entrenched over all sites through the night
however PUW and LWS could see some improvement as winds turn
increasingly offshore. The next round of precipitation will arrive
just after 18z Mon...but could impact EAT a little earlier than
that. fx

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 29 27 36 33 38 / 20 70 50 70 80 80
Coeur d`Alene 19 31 28 36 32 38 / 30 80 60 80 90 80
Pullman 22 34 31 39 35 41 / 40 70 50 70 90 80
Lewiston 26 39 34 42 37 44 / 40 60 50 60 80 60
Colville 16 30 26 36 32 41 / 20 70 60 80 90 70
Sandpoint 18 30 27 35 32 38 / 30 80 80 80 100 90
Kellogg 20 31 29 35 32 37 / 80 80 80 80 100 90
Moses Lake 17 29 27 38 34 42 / 10 40 30 50 60 40
Wenatchee 20 29 26 38 32 39 / 10 60 40 50 60 40
Omak 18 30 22 35 30 39 / 20 60 40 60 60 40

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1149 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

VFR ceilings at the beginning of this TAF period could fall back
into the MVFR category through the remainder of the overnight
hours. Have added tempo groups to the KGCK, KDDC and KHYS TAFs to
account for this. There is also some potential for mist and fog to
develop around KDDC around 12z. Conditions should improve to VFR
at all the TAF sites after about 15z. Southerly winds should
increase into the 10 to 20 knot range during the day as high
pressure continues over eastern Kansas and low pressure develops
in the lee of the Rockies.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 4 28 14 33 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 5 30 16 37 / 80 0 0 0
EHA 10 38 21 49 / 80 10 0 0
LBL 7 32 20 38 / 80 10 0 0
HYS 3 26 14 36 / 30 0 0 0
P28 7 24 14 37 / 60 10 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Gerard

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

413 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG/DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWAT UNDER 0.10 INCH OVER THE UPR LKS IN WNW FLOW ALF
BTWN CLOSED LO OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND LO AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MRNG.
COMBINATION OF THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING UPR RDG/ACYC LLVL FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS IS BRINGING TRANQUIL
WX TO THE AREA THIS MRNG. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE LK...
THE ONLY NOTICEABLE OPEN AREAS ARE NEAR THE NW SHORE NEXT TO MN AND
CANADA...THERE ARE SOME LINGERING LK CLDS/PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES IN
ONTONAGON COUNTY AND OVER THE ERN CWA WITH LLVL NW FLOW TO THE NE OF
THE HI CENTER. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY AOB -20F OVER THE INTERIOR
W AND CNTRL WHERE SKIES ARE MOCLR/WINDS LGT UNDER THE DRY AIRMASS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM... SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER MN...BUT SOME HI CLDS ARE
STREAMING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING INTO
SASKATCHEWAN OVER ROCKIES RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS NI THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TEMPS TDAY AND THEN
POPS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...SFC HI CENTER OVER IOWA IS FCST TO MOVE TO THE SE GREAT LKS
AND SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN CANADA IS PROGGED TO REACH
NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 00Z WED. THE LLVL FLOW WL BACK STEADILY TO THE
SW THRU THE DAY. SO ANY LINGERING LK CLDS/FLURRIES OVER MAINLY THE
ERN CWA THIS MRNG WL LIFT OUT INTO THE OPEN LK AS H85 TEMPS RECOVER
TOWARD -10C. OTRW...EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS UNDER
MOSUNNY SKIES. A STEADY SSW WIND WL DVLP THIS AFTN OVER ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI AND
APRCHG LO/ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AT 00Z.

TNGT...SHRTWV OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NW
ONTARIO DURING THE NGT...WITH ATTENDANT COMMA TAIL MSTR RIBBON/AXIS
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CVNGC SHIFTING W-E ACRS THE CWA. STRENGTHENING
SW FLOW...WITH H85 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 50KTS TO THE S OF SHARP PRES
FALL CENTER IN ONTARIO...IS FCST BY 00Z NAM/GFS TO DRAW MOISTER AIR
WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO 1.5-2 G/KG INTO THE CWA OVERNGT. WL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS ARRIVING OVER THE W ARND MIDNGT AND THEN
SHIFTING TO THE E. FOR EXPECTED 3-6 HR PERIOD OF SN...EXPECT AROUND
AN INCH OF SN AT MOST PLACES TO PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES AT SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH INCRSG SW WINDS/CLDS AND MSTR...EXPECT A MODEST
DIURNAL TEMP FALL WITH MIN TEMPS OCCURRING RELATIVELY EARLY. THE
BEST CHC FOR A SHARPER EVNG TEMP FALL WL BE OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE
THE DEEPER MSTR/STRONGER WINDS WL ARRIVE LATER. THE STEADY SW WIND
WL MAKE THE AIR FELL COLDER AND CAUSE SOME BLSN WHERE WINDS ARE A
BIT STRONGER NEAR THE SHORELINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

TO START THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
SNOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN CWA WILL BE AROUND 1-1.5IN...BUT GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CREATE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE
TO BLOWING SNOW. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS VERY THIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THERE SHOULD BE A QUICK END TO THE SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA AND JUST SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE AIDED BY SOME BREAKS IN THE ICE ON
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AREAS...BUT WITH THE FAIRLY LARGE
ICE COVERAGE ON THE LAKE...THINK THE ASSISTANCE WILL BE LIMITED.
PLUS...THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES AND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BEINGS TO
DEPART ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SETS UP THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FACT THAT THERE ARE ONLY SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SINCE THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES AT PLAY WITH THIS EVENT. THE FIRST WAVE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE TROUGH
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IMPACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THESE TWO OTHER FEATURES COME TO PLAY IN THE LOW
THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT LARGELY NOT UNTIL THE
LOW IS DEPARTING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBTILE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW TRACK...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING (850-500MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TRACK) ALL POINT TOWARDS THE BEST SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASING POP/QPF GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA.
TIMING FOR THE EVENT HAS THE SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1.5-4.5IN
RANGE...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY AND
THE HIGHEST OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY. AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FALLS THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT IT SHOULDN/T HAVE TOO
MUCH IMPACT ON CONDITIONS.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...COLDER AIR WILL FLOW SOUTHEAST UNDER
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER WINDS BY ABOUT 3 HOURS
BASED OFF THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. STRENGTH AND DIRECTION STILL
DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT STILL EXPECT A
FAVORABLE PERIOD OF 25-30KT WINDS SURGING IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS
WILL LIKELY CREATE A PERIOD OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE ICE WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION AND PLENTY OF OPEN SPACE FOR SNOW TO BE PICKED
UP. THINK THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW
AND FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD. THIS WIND WILL BE OFFSET FROM THE MAIN
SNOW...SO THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL MAINLY COME FROM THE
BLOWING SNOW AND BE LIMITED TO OPEN AREAS.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE LOW (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -18C)...ANY GAPS IN THE ICE COVER WOULD SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS BUT WOULDN/T EXPECT TO SEE
ANYTHING STRONGER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH THE REGION WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY EVENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BEFORE ENTERING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA (HIGHEST NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER). A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ON MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS/FLURRIES AT KCMX INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ALL THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SOME LIGHT SNOW
COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES LATE TUE NIGHT TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...S TO SW WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTN/NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES TROF.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES TONIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE
COVERED...LEADING TO A MORE STABLE TEMP PROFILE...MAIN AREA OF PRES
FALLS PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE AN ENHANCING FACTOR
FOR STRONGER WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED WITH PASSAGE OF LOW PRES
TROF. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS WED NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKS E...CROSSING
THE UPPER LAKES LATE THU. A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
IS LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW THU...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHERLY GALES OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH W TO E FRI AFTN/NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING INTO SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

411 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS NI THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TEMPS TDAY AND THEN
POPS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

344 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA... WITH RETURN FLOW JUST BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL TRY TO BE PULLED NORTH AND EASTWARD THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SETS UP FROM 850-700MB. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE
MOVING INTO DRIER AIR... AND SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REMAINING
AS EXTENSIVE. HOWEVER... WE WILL SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN
MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA AND WE BEGIN TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
ALBERTA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND HELP TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN CLIMB ABOVE ZERO FOR A
TIME OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE THINGS SATURATE
AND COOL BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING. WE DON/T APPEAR TO SATURATE
THROUGH THE LAYER UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS... WHEN A MODEST BAND OF
900-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND DPVA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA. MODEL PCPN AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY FROM 0.05-0.15 INCHES... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
THE SHORT WINDOW OF SATURATION AND FORCING. SNOW RATIOS SHOULDN/T BE
TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM CLIMATOLOGY AS WE WARM AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
AND FORECAST PROFILES DON/T SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE DENDRITIC LAYER.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA... WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF
FOCUS SLIGHTLY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS... LOOK TO HAVE THE POOREST
RATIOS DUE TO WARMER PROFILES. SO... OVERALL NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
OF AN ISSUE WITH THE SNOW TONIGHT... GENERALLY IN THE 0.5 TO 1.5
INCH RANGE. PRIOR TO THE FALLING SNOW... WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RECENT SNOWFALL... IT/S TOUGH TO
SAY WHETHER MUCH WILL BLOW AROUND... BUT GIVEN EXPECTED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS ABOVE 25 OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DECIDED
TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF IT. WINDS WILL QUIET DOWN TONIGHT AS THE
ACTUAL SNOWFALL WORKS INTO THE AREA... SO IT SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT IN TERMS OF CONTRIBUTING TO PARTICULARLY LOW VISIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

LONGER TERM CONTINUES TO FEATURE FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS ALONG
WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND.

INITIAL FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA
THROUGH 15Z WED. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A COOLING TREND INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES SATURATE THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE
CWA MAINLY AFTER 06Z THU...SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE TYPE POPS
FOR THIS. APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR TO THE TWIN CITIES AREA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING TH DAY THURSDAY. MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN
NAMWRF FARTHEST NORTH AND THE GFS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO...RIDING MAINLY
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS TREND...AS THIS MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE NAMWRF IS
ALLOWING A STRONGER WAVE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE ECMWF/GEM
AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS...WERE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
DURING THAT PERIOD FOR NOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THEN, SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE
CLIPPER...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT COOLER THAT THE GFS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR P-TYPE TRENDS INTO THE WEEK FOR THIS SYSTEM. WE DID
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY.

LONGER TERM SHOULD BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EAST. SOME
INDICATION OF ANOTHER...POSSIBLY MIXED TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THINKING FROM 00Z TAFS DEALS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TUE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THERE IS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NEB AND AS SRLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED THE RAP AND HRRR
START PUSHING THIS MOISTURE NORTH TOWARD MN. FOR NOW...ADDED SOME
SCT CLOUD WORDING AROUND 025-030 FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM RWF/STC
EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE BATTLING SOME VERY DRY AIR TO GET INTO
MN...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE NEXT SHIFT TO WATCH. AS FOR
SNOW...00Z NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW IMPACTING ALL
TERMINALS TUE NIGHT. THE NAM CAME IN ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER THAN ITS
18Z COUNTERPART WHILE THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED A SIMILAR TIMING. FOR
THESE TAFS...JUST PUSHED BACK ANY SNOW MENTION AN HOUR OR
TWO...SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. HAVE KEPT
CONDS MVFR WITH SNOW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL WINDOW WHERE IFR
VIS IS SEEN WITH -SN.

KMSP...MAY SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AROUND 00Z BASED ON RAPS HANDLING
OF CIGS CURRENTLY DOWN IN CENTRAL NEB...BUT CONFIDENCE TO LOW IN
THEM SURVIVING DRY TO MENTION IN TAF. 00Z NAM HAS SNOW STARTING
AT 7Z...WITH THE 00Z GFS STILL GOING WITH 3Z. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
WITH THIS TAF WITH A 5Z START TIME. MAY LINGER PAST 9Z...BUT STILL
LOOKS GOOD TO BE DONE BY 12Z. IN ADDITION...WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE HOUR WINDOW WHERE VIS GETS DOWN INTO IFR LEVELS...BUT WE
HAVE TIME TO PIN DOWN THAT TIMING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/-SN EARLY. BCMG VFR. WINDS BCMG W 5-10 KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR CIGS AND -SN. WINDS WSW 10-15KTS IN MORNING...BCMG
NW 15-20KTS IN AFTERNOON.
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
047>059-064>068-073>076-082>084-091.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014.

SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1055 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.UPDATE...

6Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO... WITH A FEW OF THE
COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLE SNEAKING DOWN BELOW -20. WE WILL START TO SEE
SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH KICK IN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT... AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CWFA TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT... BUT WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO
DROP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL GREET MOST FOLKS AS THEY
VENTURE OUT IN THE MORNING. A QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER TUESDAY... AND WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF MINNESOTA TUESDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE SOME PCPN OUT
AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...
THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... WITH AN INCREASE IN
MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE WARM ADVECTION OUT OF AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

THE ARCTIC WAVE TRAIN WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WITH
BRIEF COOL DOWNS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE QUICK MOVING ALBERTA
CLIPPERS.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN SPLIT FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A BROAD
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING OUT AHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WARMER THAN IDEAL PROFILE FOR HIGH SNOW RATIOS...WITH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE CONFINED TO THE 700-600MB LAYER. MODEL
GENERATED QPF IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES...SO
EXPECT TO SEE AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS RELAX AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG I-94 THURSDAY...SPREADING SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MN. THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE ORGANIZED BASED OFF THE
THERMAL FIELDS AND FRONTOGENIC/FRONTOLYTIC COUPLED FORCING. THE
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT SO MUCH THE SNOW...SINCE THE
MAJORITY WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT MORE SO THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN BOTH MODELS AND
RUNS...BUT THERE IS INDICATION THAT WIND GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER COULD REACH 40KTS...WHICH COULD REALISTICALLY
TRANSLATE TO AROUND 40MPH AT THE SURFACE. THE SNOW PACK IS FAIRLY
MATURE...AND THE DURATION OF THE WINDS WILL BE ONLY A FEW
HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS THIS BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WITH A
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE IN THE COMING DAYS.

SIMILAR TO THE GOLDILOCKS FAIRY TALE...THE THIRD CLIPPER ON
SATURDAY IS JUST RIGHT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE CWA AS IT
TAKES A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY WITH
THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP BAND RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM 10.12 ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS PRECIP. THE GFS IS A BIT WARMER...SO BUMPED
IT DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHEN USING ITS THERMAL PROFILE TO GENERATE
THE WEATHER GRIDS. ALSO INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THIS MAY BE ONLY HALF AS MUCH AS IS
ACTUALLY NECESSARY FOR THIS EVENT IF IT REMAINS ON TRACK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ043>045-049>053-057>059-065>068-073>076-082>084-091.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ041-042-047-
048-054>056-064.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ014.

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1022 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...RUNNING A BIT LATE WITH THE UPDATE THIS EVENING...AS
WE HAVE BEEN WAITING TO SEE AS MUCH OF THE 00Z MODEL DATA AS
POSSIBLE. WE DID MAKE ONE ADJUSTMENT TO HEADLINES TO EXPAND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE CLAIBORNE...NEWTON AND LAUDERDALE
COUNTIES. IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHERNMOST ADVISORY GROUPING...BUT THE 21Z SREF FREEZING RAIN
PROBS JUMPED UP A TICK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH MEAN QPF GREATER
THAN 1/2 INCH NOW NORTH OF I-20. LATEST RAP SURFACE TEMPS ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THIS FORECAST...SHOW THE FREEZING LINE DIPPING INTO
THESE AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS GAVE US ENOUGH CONCERN TO ADD A
FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT WSW
CONFIGURATION. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT QPF MAY
BE MORE LIMITED THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW
GUIDANCE SUITE TO COME IN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
BEFORE CONSIDERING FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

WILL ALSO BACK OFF A BIT ON SNOW WORDING IN THE WX GRIDS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SHOW MUCH MORE
IN THE WAY OF SLEET POTENTIAL FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP...WITH
SNOW REMAINING MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. UPDATES
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /DL/

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AERODROME WHERE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
AND KEEP VISIBILITIES AT MAINLY MVFR AS WELL. ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR AT THESE LOCATION WHERE
RAINFALL CAN BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY. OVER THE NORTHERN AREODROME TAF
POINTS...A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
ZR...IP...AND SN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD REDUCING THE
VISIBILITIS TO MVFR BUT ALLOWING CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
12Z...LOWERING TO MVFR THEREAFTER./26/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 524 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014/

WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVING EAST. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WE ARE SEEING BACKING OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ABOVE A
SHALLOW POLAR AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE ENTIRE ARKLAMISS TONIGHT...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA FOR HEAVIER
QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN UPPER
JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST.

MEANWHILE...VERY COLD AIR IS FUNNELING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO KEEP UP
WITH THE COOLING IN THE ARKLAMISS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES NEVER
EXCEED 32F IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION...AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S WERE OBSERVED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR IN NE LA. THIS IS FURTHER REFLECTED IN COOLER FORECAST
GUIDANCE FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED
COOLER IN THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

AS HAS BEEN INDICATED THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GREATEST RISK FOR UP TO
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR
WITH ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. FARTHER
SOUTH...A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL
FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE CAN FALL BELOW FREEZING
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE COMBINATION OF
PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR (GREATEST SUB-FREEZING DURATION) WILL
MAXIMIZE OVER NE LA INTO WEST CENTRAL MS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAST
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN THIS AREA...STILL EXPECT THAT TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY COULD EXCEED ONE INCH. HAVE EXTENDED THE
WARNING SOUTH OVER NE LA INCLUDING FRANKLIN/MADISON PARISHES. HEAVY
ICE POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THERE ROUGHLY ALONG THE 33RD
PARALLEL INTO EAST CENTRAL MS WHERE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE
EXTENDED THE WARNING AREA SOUTHWARD INTO WINSTON/NOXUBEE COUNTIES.
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD DEVELOP THERE IF MORE FREEZING RAIN OCCURS
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WE ARE NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT OF THAT HAPPENING
ATTM.

FARTHER SOUTH...IT IS STILL A VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THE FREEZING LINE FORECAST
IS NOT GREAT...THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG A
JACKSON TO DEKALB LINE. ONE THING WE HAVE NOTICED THOUGH AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER OVERALL AS IT STRUGGLES TO KEEP
UP WITH LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. THIS STRUGGLE COULD CONTINUE RIGHT UP
UNTIL DAYBREAK...BUT FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW COOLER TREND IN
THE FORECAST AND HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH AND INDICATED SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
ICE IN THIS AREA. IT APPEARS THE 600 TO 900 AM TIME FRAME WILL BE
WHEN COOLING MAXIMIZES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF THIS RISK. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THE WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN SOME OF THE HEAVIER QPF
SHOWING UP THEN.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DAYS HAVE CONTINUED TO EMPHASIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
QUICKLY APPROACHES. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING OVER NE LA TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING PRECIP
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED...PERHAPS EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT AN ADVISORY COULD BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE RIGHT NOW.

AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION AXIS TO SET UP WITH SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING
PERHAPS...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THIS IS BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD...MORE ON THIS LATER. /EC/

LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

AFTER WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD GETS
MUCH LESS COMPLICATED AND FEATURES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND MOST
PROMINENTLY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL OF COURSE BE CHILLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...BUT AFTER THAT POINT THE AMOUNT OF
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REGION IS VERY LIMITED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE WARMING TREND IS THE RESULT OF LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGES AFOOT FOR NORTH AMERICA...MOST NOTABLY THE LOSS OF
CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS
CHANGE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC SURGES INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT MEAN COLD FRONTS ARE A THING OF THE
PAST. ONE SUCH COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VERY
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED. EURO MODEL ACTUALLY A LITTLE
STOUTER THAN THE OP GFS WITH THE TEMPORARY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND I TRENDED MEXMOS TEMPS THAT DIRECTION. NEXT SHOT AT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOULD COME AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. /BB/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 32 37 33 38 / 90 89 91 45
MERIDIAN 33 37 35 44 / 89 90 91 54
VICKSBURG 31 34 31 35 / 89 84 91 27
HATTIESBURG 38 43 38 48 / 80 90 88 53
NATCHEZ 34 37 32 37 / 88 90 92 28
GREENVILLE 26 33 27 34 / 90 75 88 30
GREENWOOD 27 34 28 34 / 89 75 88 39

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ027>033-
035>039-042.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ040-041.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025-026-034-043>053.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ024-025.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

DL/26/EC/BB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1048 PM MST MON FEB 10 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WDSPR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED E OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TONIGHT AND WELL INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY ALSO EFFECT THE E. THE N
MTS...NE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MORE PERSISTENT SNOW. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE N MTS...WITH AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CO BORDER FROM KRTN TO KCAO. SPOTTIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE CONTDVD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID DAY TUESDAY...AS THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS E OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
THEN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON A FEW SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP
OVER THE N MTS.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

404 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BITTER COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
DUE ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEDGE OF CLEARING SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE SPREADING BACK FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO
BACK THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDENCE THINS OUT THE CLOUDS. FLURRIES
WILL PERSIST MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT BUT A FLAKE OR TWO POSSIBLE
WHERE THE CLOUDS RETURN. VERY COLD TODAY WITH THE ARCTIC AIR IN
PLACE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL
TO RADIATE DOWN TO SOME REALLY COLD LOW TEMPS. SOME OF THE MODELS
INDICATE A WIND SHIFT TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH A PERSISTENT 4-6
KNOT BREEZE IN WHICH CASE THERE WOULD NOT BE MUCH CHANCE TO DECOUPLE
AND GET REALLY COLD. WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE COLD SIDE
GIVEN THE HISTORY OF THIS AIR MASS BUT WILL NOT FORECAST THE COLDEST
POSSIBLE (WHICH WOULD BE NEGATIVE TEENS) SINCE THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT WE MAY NOT BOTTOM OUT.

WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST STORM SO THE FRONT WILL WASH
OUT. WE WILL NOT REALLY SEE ANY DIRECT IMPACT EXCEPT AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. WITH RIDGING LINGERING BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS...
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL TO GET COLD AT NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THE LINGERING ARCTIC AND AND DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
AT THE INLAND SPOTS THAT TYPICALLY GET COLD.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. THE GFS TAKES A STRONGER
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THAN MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS. THERE LIKELY WILL JUST BE A PERIOD OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY WITH SOME MORNING SUN
POSSIBLE BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE REFINED POPS TO ONLY HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE IN THE SNOWBELT FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH
CHANCES OF SNOW RETURNING TO NW OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW
SOME SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE GEM OFFERING THE BEST
CONSENSUS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS WOULD BRING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO ALL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COULD BE ON THE WAY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING TROUGH SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S
WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING OVER TO RAIN. THE ECMWF DOES BRING
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR IN BEHIND THE LOW WHILE THE GFS LOOKS MORE
ZONAL. EVEN THE COLDER ECMWF SUGGESTS THE COLD SNAP COULD BE BRIEF
WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. WILL KEEP SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
IF LAST NIGHT WAS ANY INDICATION OF WHAT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT...MAY
HAVE MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING FOR EASTERN OH/NW PA.
LATEST HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
THE EAST AND ALSO POSSIBLY FOR MFD OVER TO FDY IN SOME BR/FG. HAVE
CONTINUED OUR FORECAST THAT TRENDED THAT WAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WIN OVER THE REST OF AREA FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY REDEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL NON VFR AGAIN SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ERIE TODAY THEN TO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY...FINALLY
STARTING TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE BEHIND IT ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THEN WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST OR EAST TO NORTHEAST IF THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE.
LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS BETTER SUPPORT TO THE MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SO TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

1136 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECTING A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS DRIER AIR HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS NE
OH. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO COME AND GO OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
IN MANY AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN ABOVE ZERO SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. WILL WAIT FOR 03Z
OBS BEFORE SENDING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW PA IN THE
MORNING...BUT THE 850 RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON CUTTING OFF THE SNOW. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA THIS TIME TOMORROW THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO BEGIN MODERATING. RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN BUT NOT EXPECTING HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SHOVEL. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY
AND THEN A BREAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A CLIPPER FOR LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE RIDGE EAST AND BRINGS
IN ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY. AT THIS TIME LEANED TOWARD THAT
SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH SO FORECASTING RAIN/SNOW.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY REDEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL NON VFR AGAIN SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
A RIDGE WILL BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OVER LAKE ERIE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE
STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THEY COULD BE BRIEFLY NEAR
GALE FORCE USING THE ECMWF DATA. AT THIS TIME TRENDING TOWARD BEING
BELOW GALE FORCE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE LAKE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KIELTYKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1106 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE`S SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING EAST ALONG THE STATE LINE. THE HIGHEST
REFLECTIVITIES ARE CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ALABAMA...JUST SOUTH OF
THE TN STATE LINE AS EARLIER FORECASTS SUGGESTED. FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO REMAIN IN WAYNE, LAWRENCE, AND GILES
COUNTIES...WHERE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HRRR
CONTINUES TO STAND ALONE AND INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
EXTENDING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS HRRR RUNS WERE SHOWING QUITE A BIT MORE
MOISTURE...BUT HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF. THE ONLY CHANGE TO TONIGHT`S
WX WILL BE THE ADDITION OF FLURRIES FROM THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
NORTH TO I-40 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE EVENT THAT THE PRECIP
HOVERING OVER THE MS/TN BORDER HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE IT MOVES ENE.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED NOT
FORECASTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES. ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
RECENT OBS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
AM FORECASTING VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. INVERTED
TROUGH DOWN ALONG GULF COAST IN A GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SPREAD
PRECIP NORTHWARD THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. 15Z SREF RUN THE ONLY MODEL BRINGING IT INTO SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EVEN THE LATEST H-TRIPLE-R RUN HAS BACKED OFF.
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SREF RUN.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EUREKA CA

409 AM PST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A GENERALLY FAIR DAY TO NW
CALIFORNIA...FOLLOWING VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG THIS MORNING. THIS
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN IN THE EVENING ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MENDOCINO
COUNTY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BUILDING RIDGE FOR NW CALIFORNIA TODAY, WHILE THE NCEP SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS IS CAUSING A VERY LOW LEVEL SURFACE INVERSION THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS THE REASON BEHIND COASTAL AND VALLEY
FOG. ABUNDANT MOISTURE MAY EQUATE TO SOME INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE
ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. AS THE SUN
RISES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM, ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
THE CLOUDS OFF THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING DO NOT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TODAY. WHILE TEMPS
WILL BE PLEASANT, CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES AS TO
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
DELAY THE ONSET UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE THE MORE COARSE
RESOLUTION GFS BRINGS RAIN TO DEL NORTE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE HI-
RES 3KM HRRR ALSO SEEMS TO BE HOLDING OFF THE PRECIP UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE EVER RELIABLE ECMWF IS ALSO HOLDING OFF PRECIP
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH MODELS SEEMINGLY HOLDING OFF PRECIP
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR THE PRE-
MIDNIGHT TIMES THEN RAMPING THEM UP QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN
SPREADING INTO FAR NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY BY MID MORNING. KEPT
QPF TOTALS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE DEL NORTE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW
INCHES IN THE HUMBOLDT MOUNTAINS. TOTALS FOR MENDOCINO COUNTY DO
NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FOCUSED
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. HOWEVER, OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY SQUEEZE OUT
AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER MENDOCINO NATIONAL FOREST. SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH MAKING SNOWFALL A NON EVENT. THE OTHER ISSUE ARE THE
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING 925MB
WINDS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS COASTAL DEL NORTE COUNTY. PRE-FRONTAL DYNAMICS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME OF SOME OF THESE WINDS IN GUSTS. THAT
SAID, MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT
OF THESE HIGHER WINDS, WHETHER THEY OCCUR IN SOUTHERN OREGON OR
DOWN INTO NW CAL. AS SUCH, WILL PUNT TO THE DAY CREW TO MAKE THE
FINAL DECISION AS TO A WIND ADVISORY SINCE IT REMAINS BORDERLINE
WITH OUR CRITERIA. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE BREEZY WED MORNING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES AND BRANCHES ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, SINKING INTO FAR NORTHERN DEL NORTE COUNTY BUT THEN
STALL OUT THERE. THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THU, BUT THEN LIFT OUT AS A WARM
FRONT THU EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI
INTO SAT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE PASSING OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MID NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A
HALF AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO
DRIVE DISTURBANCES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WITH HEIGHTS REMAINING SOMEWHAT HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
DID A MIX OF THE OFFICIAL AND CONSRAW FOR TEMPS THIS WEEK. THIS
CHANGED THE ONGOING FORECAST LITTLE. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO PULL THE BULK OF THE POPS FARTHER NORTH AND
KEEPING MENDOCINO FAIRLY DRY, STICKING WITH THE FOCUS OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. BFG

.AVIATION...EXPECT LIFR ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING DUE TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND VISIBILITIES
IMPROVE. INLAND, EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.

.MARINE...THE FIRST IN SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS TO
LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
LAST INTO WEDNESDAY. ISSUED SCA`S FOR THIS, BUT GALES OR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT TIME OVERNIGHT IF THE
STORM IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE DAY CREW WILL NEED TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM PST WEDNESDAY
PZZ450-475.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST
WEDNESDAY PZZ470.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

926 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL DIRECT COLD AIR
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF
GEORGIA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND BE NEAR
THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BRING WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. DANGEROUS ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION DURING MUCH OF TODAY. BASED ON THE
LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS EXPECT MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF A
SALUDA...COLUMBIA...AND BISHOPVILLE LINE. NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF
THIS LINE EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET. IT SHOULD BE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH PART. RADAR TRENDS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY BUT SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR IN THE
NORTH PART. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA EXTENDING FROM LINCOLNTON TO NEWBERRY TO CAMDEN TO CHERAW.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE GFS AND NAM MODEL
TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS ARE CLOSE AND SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL LIKELY BE FREEZING RAIN. DANGEROUS ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. HAVE TRIED TO STAY CLOSE TO WPC
QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

AVERAGE MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE 1.00 INCH WHICH IS A
CONCERN...SO HAVE RAISED ICING FORECAST TO 0.5 TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA. THERE IS A POSSIBLY OF EVEN GREATER
ICE AMOUNTS IF QPF IS REALIZED. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY
MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ICE ACCUMULATION. THE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES COMBINED WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL LEAD TO POWER
OUTAGES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVES UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST.

USED THE LOCAL WEDGE SCHEME FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE CHARNICK SCHEME PRODUCED LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE POPS OF 20 PERCENT OR
LESS. THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WEDGE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH LIGHT RAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECT CIGS
TO RANGE BETWEEN 700 FEET AND 1200 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VSBYS
WILL LOWER BETWEEN 2 TO 4 MILES BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE PELLETS MIXING WITH THE RAIN AFTER
16Z AT CAE/CUB...AND BY 22Z AT OGB/AGS/DNL. EXPECT THE RAIN/SLEET
MIX TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF FREEZING RAIN
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS...MAINLY TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
CROSSES THE REGION. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-
016-018-020>022-025-026.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

639 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS NI THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TEMPS TDAY AND THEN
POPS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

WITH DRY HI PRES PASSING THRU THE LOWER LKS DOMINATING TODAY...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BUT A STEADY SW WIND BY THE AFTN AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING INTO
SCENTRAL CANADA. GUSTY SSW WINDS WL DVLP THIS EVNG AS THE LO PRES
TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO PASSING THRU ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER AND
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER. FCST SDNGS HINT AT ENUF LLVL
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS...SO REMOVED MENTION OF LLWS.
SOME LGT SN WL ARRIVE TOWARD MIDNGT AT IWD/CMX AND THEN MOVE INTO
SAW IN THE EARLY MRNG HRS. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE SSW FLOW MAY
LIMIT VSBY RESTRICTION TO MVFR RANGE AT CMX/IWD...BUT MORE FVRBL
FLOW FOR SAW INDICATES IFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT THAT SITE. THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF WL DIMINISH THE SN W-E...BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS THRU 12Z WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

921 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE RISING ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE INCREASING.
THEREFORE WIND CHILLS MAY NOT FEEL LIKE THEY ARE IMPROVING BUT
THEY ARE RISING ENOUGH TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE SOME LATE. THEREFORE THERE
COULD BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY WHILE THE
WINDS ARE UP. UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS SO FAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
AND LATEST RAP WOULD KEEP IT PRETTY LIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WILL SEE WHAT OTHER 12Z MODELS HAVE IN STORE BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD STAY PRETTY LIGHT AND MAINLY BE
RESTRICTED TO THE FAR NORTHERN VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE ELEMENTS COVERED AND WILL SEE IF
ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE ONCE THE SNOW MOVES IN.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE SNOW CHANCES/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL SYSTEM TODAY
HOWEVER STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES...MAINLY WITH LOW
TRACK...WITH NEXT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. USED AND
BLEND AND PERSISTENCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED -SN WORKING ACROSS SASK AND MODELS HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING AND SNOW POSITION. SNOW SHOULD
SPREAD INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION MID MORNING EXPANDING
ACROSS NW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH QPF PLACEMENT SO DID NOT NEED TO MAKE MUCH FOR
CHANGES WITH POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN INCH OR
TWO ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DVL-GFK AND PKD. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE AS CLOUDS ADVANCE...MIXING AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES. WIND WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE MID DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH. MODELS
INDICATING 30-40KTS AT 925MB HOWEVER MIXED LAYER SHALLOW AND SHORT
LIVED. STILL WILL SEE A PERIOD OF 20 TO 30KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. NOT SURE ON POTENTIAL FOR BLSN WITH OLD SNOW HOWEVER LEFT
IN TO BE SAFE.

SNOW SHOULD PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NW INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING WITH -SN EXITING MOST OF THE FA NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER IN THE NIGHT
AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICK
WINDS DIMINISH.

NEXT WAVE WILL START TO AFFECT FA MID/LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
UNTIL THEN NOT MUCH FOR RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN SNOW EVENT WITH THIS NEXT WAVE WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON LOW TRACK BUT OVERALL LOOKS
LIKE SAME AREA TO BE AFFECTED. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES NOT ALL
THAT MUCH HIGHER BUT WITH STRONGER WAVE AND DEEPER SFC LOW SNOW
PRODUCTION SHOULD BE MORE EFFICIENT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY NEED
SOME SORT OF HEADLINES HOWEVER WILL NOT ADDRESS NOW.

SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY MID DAY THURSDAY HOWEVER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE
SOUTH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY MINIMUMS WILL CONTINUE TO HINGE ON CLOUD
COVER.

LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FORECAST TO BECOME ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN US AND SOUTHERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO RUN FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF.
WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE THIS PERIOD.

WILL SLOW DOWN PRECIP FOR FRI NIGHT. OTHER CHANGES WERE MINOR.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ON FRI AND SUN AND UP
A DEGREE ON SAT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

-SN WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW FA MID-LATE AM SPREADING SE DURING THE
DAY. DVL-GFK-TVF AND BJI WILL GENERALLY BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF
MAIN SNOW TRACK BUT COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS IN
STRONGER SNOW BANDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECT FROM LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON MAINLY THROUGH THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT
AREAS. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH -SN CONFINED TO
NW MN BY EVENING.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS FORT WORTH TX

526 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...TIMING AND DURATION OF WINTRY PRECIP.

THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS
AND CIGS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 4000 FEET. EXPECT BATCHES OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY AFTER 14Z WITH CIGS
RETURNING TO MVFR DURING PRECIP. AS FOR KACT...CURRENT MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 3500 FEET AS WELL. SOME 88D ECHOES
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KACT AFTER 14Z WITH
ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF -FZRAPL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ALL PRECIP WILL END WEST TO END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FEET PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD 4SM BR FOR
KACT 05-11Z AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD REMAINS SMALL. 75

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE
METROPLEX WHILE SOME LIGHT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM
THE BIG COUNTRY SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FREEZING LINE AS
OF 3 AM EXTENDED FROM PARIS TO CORSICANA TO GEORGETOWN.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE HAS ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND EXTRA ASCENT PROVIDED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AMOUNTS ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY BUT WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THERE WILL BE
IMPACTS. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6 PM. THE 06Z HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A WSW TO ENE ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPING
JUST TO ITS SOUTH. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAS BEEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS
CLOSER...THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL GET THINNER AND THE TEXAS TECH
WRF INDICATES THAT THE WARM NOSE WILL BE ALMOST GONE LATE
AFTERNOON AT DFW. HAVE INDICATED FREEZING RAIN WITH A CHANCE SLEET
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...WITH RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CHANCE OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE RED
RIVER.

AFTER THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COLD START TOMORROW MORNING WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
BUT NOT MUCH COLDER AIR. 58

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 33 26 47 31 60 / 60 10 0 0 0
WACO, TX 34 25 50 29 62 / 60 20 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 33 23 46 29 57 / 50 20 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 32 23 47 28 60 / 60 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 33 24 46 28 58 / 60 20 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 34 27 47 32 60 / 60 20 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 33 24 46 30 58 / 60 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 34 26 47 32 59 / 60 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 34 27 51 31 63 / 60 20 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 31 23 49 29 64 / 60 10 0 0 0

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

75/

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

409 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE
METROPLEX WHILE SOME LIGHT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM
THE BIG COUNTRY SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FREEZING LINE AS
OF 3 AM EXTENDED FROM PARIS TO CORSICANA TO GEORGETOWN.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE HAS ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH CONTINUED
INSENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND EXTRA ASCENT PROVIDED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AMOUNTS ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY BUT WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THERE WILL BE
IMPACTS. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6 PM. THE 06Z HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A WSW TO ENE ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPING
JUST TO ITS SOUTH. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAS BEEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS
CLOSER...THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL GET THINNER AND THE TEXAS TECH
WRF INDICATES THAT THE WARM NOSE WILL BE ALMOST GONE LATE
AFTERNOON AT DFW. HAVE INDICATED FREEZING RAIN WITH A CHANCE SLEET
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...WITH RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CHANCE OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE RED
RIVER.

AFTER THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COLD START TOMORROW MORNING WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE INTHE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
BUT NOT MUCH COLDER AIR.

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

75/58

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

120 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVES UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST.

USED THE LOCAL WEDGE SCHEME FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE CHARNICK SCHEME PRODUCED LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE POPS OF 20 PERCENT OR
LESS. THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINTER STORM SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH RAIN AND
SLEET AT CAE/CUB AND ONLY RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB. CEILINGS HAVE
LOWERED TO HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR WITH FURTHER LOWERING FIRMLY
INTO IFR THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN SURROUNDS FREEZING RAIN WITH
THE ONSET CURRENTLY BEING PUSHED BACK SEVERAL HOURS. LINE BETWEEN
LIQUID AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY A COUPLE MILES NORTH OF
CAE/CUB WITH SOME OCCASIONAL SLEET WORKING INTO CAE/CUB. EXPECT
THE LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND
12/09Z. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN FOR CAE/CUB LOWER THAN OTHER
SITES DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR PRODUCING SLEET
INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN. ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL
BEGIN WITH THE ONSET AND TOTAL ACCUMULATION BY 12/18Z REACHING ONE
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND SLIGHTLY LESS
AT CAE/CUB. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AROUND DAYBREAK
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION CROSS THE REGION. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE STORM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

401 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

A weak cold front/surface boundary will drop south across
Nebraska overnight as an upper level trough crosses the Rockies
and moves out into the northern plains. NAM and GFS indicated an
increase in cloud cover will precede this upper level disturbance
so given the increase in cloud cover and a southwest wind at 10 to
15 mph will continue to favor the previous forecast with lows
overnight mainly in the teens for western Kansas. The cooler
temperatures will be where the heavier snowfall fell Monday night.
There will also be a chance for some freezing fog overnight based
on the south/slightly southeast wind direction during the first
half of the night along with mostly clear skies. HRRR also was
suggesting a period of reduced visibilities across south central
and portions of western Kansas until the winds begin to veer more
to the west after midnight. At this time dense fog is not
anticipated.

Morning clouds will give way to mostly sunny conditions on
Wednesday as the upper level disturbance moves into the Mid
Mississippi Valley. The weak cold front/surface boundary will
briefly move into the western Kansas early in the day. Despite the
frontal passage the 925mb to 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday
will be 2c to 4c warmer when compared to temperatures at 00z
Wednesday. Using this as a guide for highs and taking into account
snow cover across much of western Kansas the afternoon
temperatures are expected to range from the mid 30s to upper 40s.
The upper 40s will be mainly confined to extreme southwest Kansas
where there is little to no cover.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

The mid to high level flow will remain fairly zonal through the
extended period, with embedded shortwave troughs bringing periodic
weak cold fronts through western Kansas. The main problem with the
temperature forecast is the effect of snow cover. Melting will be a
slow process, especially since ground temperatures are below
freezing. The warming trend will be interrupted by a pacific cold
front that will knock highs in the 60s Saturday into the 50s by
Sunday and Monday.

The models indicate low amplitude but deep upper troughing off
of the west coast by Feb 18-19th. This pattern would result in broad
west-southwest mid to high level flow regime across the high plains,
with lee troughing and very mild temperatures. Highs could reach
well into the 60s and 70s by February 18th.

The models are advertising a deep upper level trough in the western
United States by Feb 20th, with strong lee troughing by Feb
19th-20th. Highs will be in the 70s south of a frontal boundary over
the southern plains and probably extending into southern Kansas, with
cooler 60s across the central Plains. Persistent low level flow
from the Gulf of Mexico will result in 55-60F dewpoints into the
southern plains by Feb 19-20th. Eventually as the upper level trough
approaches the plains by the Feb 21st-23rd time frame,
thunderstorms could develop. Unless the system closes off and
moves very slowly, climatology suggests that the moist axis will
be over eastern Kansas, with drier air further west. However,
recall that an upper level trough and moisture return on February
23, 2007 resulted in severe weather, including F1 tornadoes in
Ford and Meade counties and 1 inch hail in Seward county. But
severe weather in February is exceedingly rare across western
Kansas.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

Mid to high level moisture will be on the increase overnight as
an upper level disturbance moves out of the Rockies and into the
northern plains. A weak surface boundary will moves south into
portions of western Kansas by early Wednesday which will result in
southwest winds at around 10 becoming northwest during the early
morning hours. Given the expected wind direction early tonight and
climatology for DDC, GCK and HYS there will be a chance for some fog
during the overnight hours. HRRR also suggesting this trend as
well so introduced a period of MVFR/IFR visibilities with the
lower visibilities being at DDC.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 16 35 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 16 36 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 23 50 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 17 42 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 17 34 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
P28 10 35 22 45 / 0 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

207 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MORNING STRATUS LINGERING
AND MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM COLORADO. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 40S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS STRENGTHENING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE THE
TIMING OF THE LEE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FROM MELTING SNOW...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT FREEZING FOG WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHEN THE LEE TROUGH MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT...WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE FOG BY
MIXING IN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE HRRR...NAM AND LAMP GUIDANCE ALL
SUGGEST FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...BUT FOR VARYING LOCATIONS. SIDED WITH
THE HRRR ON FOG CHANCES AS THE LOCATIONS MORE ACCURATELY REFLECTED
THE ANTICIPATED SCENARIO. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SETTLE DOWN BEHIND THE LEE TROUGH BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE TIME TO WATCH CLOSELY WILL
BE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THESE
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY KANSAS. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR TOMORROW...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. AS WITH TODAY...IT WAS
HARD TO PINPOINT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH THE SNOW FIELD
REMAINING BUT WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES. BASICALLY TOOK A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH A ONE DEGREE NUDGE UP FOR TOMORROW.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF CLOUDINESS ANTICIPATED. THIS COULD LIMIT WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON MAY HELP OVERCOME SOME OF THE INCOMING CLOUDINESS. FARTHER
EAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WARMING AS THEY
WILL HAVE PASSED OVER MANY MILES OF SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY MUNDANE IN REGARD TO PRECIP. CHANCES AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE
MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE NAILING DOWN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS SEVERAL FRONTS MOVE THROUGH IN ADDITION TO
ESTIMATING HOW MUCH SNOW PACK WILL BE LEFT TO AFFECT TEMPERATES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WARMING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THREE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ACCOMPANYING EACH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WILL BE A COLD FRONT. BEHIND
EACH SHORT WAVE TROUGH A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HELPING TO NEGATE THE
EFFECTS OF THE BRIEF SPELL OF COOLER AIR. AFTER MONDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF
SITES. GUIDANCE HINTS THAT FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AT
KMCK. ONE CONCERNING FACTOR ABOUT THIS FORECAST IS THE PASSING OF
A TROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUT UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
NOCTURNAL COOLING. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP AND WOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG. KGLD MAY BE ON
THE EDGE OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT THINKING IS THIS SHOULD
STAY EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITE.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

150 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIODS AS
MILD/DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (IF NOT
LONGER). AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. DOWNSLOPE/CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A PERSISTENT DRY
AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60F THIS WEEKEND (POSSIBLY MID-UPPER 60S USING WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE AND ASSUMING CLEAR SKIES). IN FACT IT APPEARS ALL OF
OUR HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH QUICKLY PASSES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. GFS KEEPS THIS TROUGH MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND MUCH WEAKER. I
DIDNT SEE A REASON TO JUMP ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION SINCE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LIMITS THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION/LIFT AVAILABLE OVER OUR CWA...AND PRECIP WOULD
BE VERY LIGHT IF WE WERE TO SEE ANY. THESE TYPES OF QUICK MOVING
FEATURES ARE TRADITIONALLY HANDLED POORLY AT THIS RANGE BY
GUIDANCE...SO I FAVORED A DRY FORECAST ADVERTISED BY MODEL MEAN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

208 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

The extended forecast looks dry with an upper level ridge building
across the western US this week then shifting eastward to the Plains
this weekend. A series of upper level shortwave are progged to move
through the Northern Plains this week but look to only affect the
wind direction with a slight increase in clouds across western
Kansas. There will generally be a downslope component to the wind
this week with winds meandering from the southwest to northwest as
the aforementioned upper level disturbances move through the
Northern Plains. The main problem with the temperature forecast is
the effect of snow cover. Melting will be a slow process, especially
since ground temperatures are below freezing. Nevertheless, a
gradual warming trend can be expected through Saturday as the snow
melt continues, with highs possibly reaching into the 60s or even
low 70s by Saturday. A brief cooldown is expected Sunday into Monday
in the wake of a shortwave trough.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 17 36 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 16 36 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 23 48 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 17 42 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 17 35 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
P28 12 35 22 45 / 0 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1125 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

At 12z Tuesday a 250mb upper level jet extended from the
northeast Pacific, just off the coast of Washington, into northern
Nevada. An upper level trough was located over Idaho which was
also in the left exit region of the 250mb upper level jet. Further
east a 500mb trough extended from eastern Kansas into eastern New
Mexico and a 850mb high was located over Oklahoma. At the surface
earlier this morning a trough of low pressure/surface boundary was
present along the lee of the Rockies with an area of high pressure
was centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

The mid level shortwave over western Kansas was moving into
central and eastern Kansas early this morning. The snow that had
developed Monday afternoon and evening over southwest Kansas was
poised to move out of south central Kansas early this morning as
evident in the radar mosaic. Have adjusted early morning weather
and pops to diminish and end before sunrise. Low level cloudiness
continues across the central High Plains and over western Kansas.
There will be a few breaks around through sunrise but clouds
should diminish from northwest to southeast across western Kansas
during the morning hours as upper level ridging and subsidence
builds into the central High Plains.

Surface high pressure that continues to nose into the central High
Plains from the Midwest will slowly move east today. Pressure will
be lowering somewhat over eastern Colorado. The resulting pressure
gradient will bring increasing southerly winds to western Kansas
today. In spite of more sunshine and increased low level mixing,
temperatures will be hard pressed to climb out of the mid and
upper 20s from Dodge City east as the cold high pressure continues
its grip. Farther west, temperatures should climb well into the
30s over the far southwest corner where snow cover has been the
lightest.

Overnight low temperatures tonight will be tricky as increasing
high level cloudiness and a westerly downslope component to the
winds will counteract widespread snow cover over much of central
and southwest Kansas. The previous min temperature forecast showed
a bias toward coldest temperatures in the mid teens where snow
cover is the deepest. Have adjusted that area a little to reflect
where significant snowfall occurred Monday night. Elsewhere, lows
could stay in the lower 20s around Elkhart and in the area from Scott
City to Wakeeney.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 28 17 36 23 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 30 16 36 24 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 38 23 48 30 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 32 17 42 25 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 26 17 35 24 / 0 0 0 0
P28 24 12 35 22 / 10 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GAYLORD MI

1227 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

CHANGES THIS HOUR: CONTINUE TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A PRONOUNCED CLEARING TREND
ERODING VERY THIN CLOUDINESS SEEN THIS MORNING. RAP PROFILES
INSIST THAT WITH A LITTLE HEATING WE WILL RE-SATURATE BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FEEL THAT THIS WILL STILL
HAPPEN TO SOME EXTENT GIVEN THAT VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS WE ARE ON
THE VERGE OF SATURATION ATTM...BUT WILL TREND THE FORECAST MORE
PARTLY CLOUDY /THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY/ FOR THE AFTERNOON...SAVE THE
COAST OF NW LOWER FROM MBL TO GTLM4. TEMPS/WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

CHANGES THIS HOUR: WILL GO A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CLOUDS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES NOT IN A HURRY TO
RESPOND...HOWEVER...WITH SOME SPOTS STILL IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. OUTSIDE OF THIS EARLY CLEARING...DO LIKE INHERITED
TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY OR A LITTLE AFTER...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES AS THE COLUMN WARMS SOME /SEE UPSTREAM GRB
SOUNDING/ WITH BETTER INTERSECTION OF THIS MOISTURE AND THE DGZ.
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...LIGHT WNW FLOW RESULTING IN LAKE CLOUDS
ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AND ACROSS NW LOWER FROM
LEELANAU COUNTY SOUTHWARD...WHERE THE FLOW IS COMING IN OFF AREAS
THAT ARE LESS ICE COVERED. STILL THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL
REDEVELOP ALL AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A BIT LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES IS LIKELY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE COLD WHERE IT CLEARED. HERE ARE THE LEADERS THIS
MORNING...INDIAN RIVER (-25F)...PELLSTON AND ATLANTA (-23F)
GAYLORD (-21F).

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER/SYNOPTIC PATTERN: BROAD SHALLOW TROUGHING ALOFT
EXITING WITH SHALLOW RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING STARTING TO TAKE
OVER. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LAST EVENING...AND NOW WEAKENING WINDS
FROM ADVANCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN A LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH WOODS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
ALL OF FAR NRN LOWER AND MUCH OF EASTERN CHIP/MACK IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED IN THESE AREAS...WITH READINGS
NOW DOWN INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. UPSTREAM...MAIN SHORTWAVE
SHALLOW RIDGING NOW POKING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN...WITH MAINLY
JUST SOME WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS AND TEMPS NEAR 20 BELOW. THERE IS A
SHALLOW SHORTWAVE/BATCH OF RAIN ENTERING THE PAC NW...ASSOCIATED
WITH A NRN STREAM JET STREAK OF 120+ KTS.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/WEATHER EXPECTATIONS: SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT AND
RATHER IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE AND FURTHER DRYING STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT DATA SHOWING SIGNS OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE SINKING INVERSION. THE BL DOES NOT APPEAR TO GET
SQUASHED OUT WITH DRYING...AND WEAK FLOW NOT ALLOWING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MIXING. THEN...AFTER LOOKING AT YESTERDAY`S SATELLITE/SKY
COVER SHOWING PRETTY MUCH CLOUDY ALL AREAS (GRANTED...WE WONT HAVE
THE WNW FLOW OFF THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKES)...GOTTA BELIEVE THAT
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES) DEVELOPS. THIS TO LIKELY START AROUND 16-17Z. WINDS DO
INCREASE/SWITCH OUT OF THE SW LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT SEEING THE BL GETTING TOTALLY DRIED OUT...AND
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE SKY
CONDITION. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNDOWN...EXPECT TO SEE AREAS AWAY FROM
THE DOWNWIND LAKES (NE LOWER) TO CLEAR OUT...WHILE SHALLOW MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED. GONNA GO WITH AN EVENTUAL CLEAR SKY IN NE
LOWER...WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE SW FLOW REGIMES.
WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NE LOWER...WHILE THICKER CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WEST OF THERE.
THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INCOMING PAC NW SHORTWAVE...AND
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THAT MAKES IT INTO FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
NOT ENTIRELY SURE ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. BEST FORCING/DEEP LAYER -DIVQ
RIDES NORTH OF US...AND BEST LOWE LEVEL CONVERGENCE WELL WEST WITH
THE FRONT. ALSO...MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO START THINKING
ABOUT SEEDING THE LAKES. ONLY SHOT WILL BE WHERE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THE 40% CHANCE...WESTERN CHIP/MACK. SEE NO VIABLE REASON TO TAKE
THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THERE.

TEMPS STAY COLD...HIGHS IN THE 9 TO 15F RANGE TODAY WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...TO THE SINGLE (DOUBLE DIGITS?) BELOW ZERO EAST IN THE
CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

PACIFIC JET CORES REMAIN AGGRESSIVE...ENSURING A PROGRESSIVE CONUS
FLOW REGIME OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM. ABOVE NOT ONLY
SUPPORTS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN...BUT ONE THAT WILL GIVE A BOOT TO
NOW MULTI-WEEK TREND OF ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASIONS AND ALLOW A
SOMEWHAT "MILDER" PATTERN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THOSE
LONGING FOR SPRING-LIKE WARMTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT...WITH READINGS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE INDICES SUPPORT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE PROGS OF
EVEN MILDER AIR (ABOVE NORMAL?) PERHAPS SPREADING INTO OUR AREA
HEADING THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A LONG WAY
OUT AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES FOR SURE...BUT AN IDEA NEARLY
SHARED BY ALL GUIDANCE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES. WE SHALL SEE!
GETTING A LITTLE TOO FAR AHEAD...WITH PLENTY OF THINGS TO CONSIDER
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES
TO GET SOME MEASURABLE SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS PSEUDO
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. ADDRESSING THE IMPACTS
OF THESE SYSTEMS REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.

SYSTEM ONE SPREADS IN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AS ELONGATED WAVE RACES
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL SUPPORT IS FLEETING...AS IS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT WHICH QUICKLY WASHES OUT HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SIMPLY NOT IMPRESSED WITH EITHER MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS...WITH SHEARING WAVE FOCUSING BETTER LIFT OFF TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST
TIED TO DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST SYSTEM. MID LEVELS LOOK REMARKABLY DRY
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INITIAL WAVE SUPPORT LIKELY
WASTED IN MOISTENING THESE LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...JUST NOT SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT...AND EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AMOUNTS
TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH PERHAPS JUST TRACE AMOUNTS
DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LINGERING SNOWS QUICKLY END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUPPORT STRIPS AWAY.

BREAK IS BRIEF AS MUCH MORE COHERENT AND COMPACT WAVE TAKES IT TURN
CROSSING THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ROCK-STEADY
ECMWF (NOW SUPPORTED BY GFS/GEM/UKMET) PLACES BEST DYNAMICS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...MAINLY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSSES THROUGH THE STRAITS. ONCE AGAIN...INITIAL SURGE OF
RATHER STRONGLY FORCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GOES INTO MOISTENING THE
COLUMN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH A QUICK LOSS OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THEREAFTER AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN ON SOUTH SIDE OF MAIN
WAVE. ABOVE SUGGESTS THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL
REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH TRENDS SUPPORT
THE HEAVIEST...STEADIEST SNOW TARGETING AREAS EVEN FURTHER NORTH.
MID LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS RATHER RESPECTABLE...AND WITH PWATS VALUES
APPROACHING A THIRD OF AN INCH...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN UPPER (ESPECIALLY IF SYSTEM CAN NUDGE
JUST A TOUCH MORE SOUTH). HOWEVER...EVEN A FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION
WOULD NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL GIVEN OVERALL
DEARTH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE THIS SYSTEM
FROM THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SYSTEM BEGINS TO WASH OUT
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS IT APPROACHES MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST
SYSTEM.

DRY START TO THE WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY UNCERTAINTY AS
YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN CONUS. NO NEED TO
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE DETAILS JUST YET...ALTHOUGH HAVE TO SAY MOST
PROGS SUPPORT A PATH TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...KEEPING
MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DEEP
NORTHEAST CONUS/CANADIAN MARITIME LOW DEFINITELY SUPPORTS THIS
FURTHER SOUTH IDEA. PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE HEADING
RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS AND SNOW
CHANCES. TIMING WILL CHANGE...SO NO NEED TO RUN WITH ANYTHING BUT A
CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH.

CONFIDENCE A TOUCH BETTER WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. BRIEF MODERATION INTO THE 20S THURSDAY GIVES WAY TO A
TRANSIENT SHOT OF COLDER (NOT ARCTIC!) AIR TO END THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS. THIS
CORE OF COLD GETS KICKED WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC INFLUENCES BEGIN TO DOMINATE. CURRENT MID RANGE
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME AREAS PUSHING
30...BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A HEAT WAVE INDEED!

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GIVE WAY
TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE COMING
TAF PERIOD.

RESTRICTIONS: MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG TO COAST OF NW LOWER
AND THUS IMPACT MBL. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE...WITH THIS CLOUDINESS
OCCASIONALLY MAKING A RUN AT PLN/TVC THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR AT
APN. TONIGHT EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH A PLUME OF LOWER MVFR CIGS FROM MBL UP ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS PLUME WILL MOVE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING PLN DURING THE MORNING...AND POTENTIALLY
MBL/TVC BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THAT APN WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

SNOW RATES/CHARACTER: ANY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY WILL
BE VERY LIGHT /NO MORE THAN A COATING IN AN HOUR/ AND LIKELY
RESTRICTED TO PLN. SNOW WILL BE DRY/FLUFFY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO WEST 5KTS OR LESS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
5-10KTS TONIGHT /EXCEPT CALM TO LIGHT-VARIABLE AT APN/ BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHENING TO 10G18KTS BY MID/LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

LLWS: 1.5-2.0KFT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 30KTS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING BY LATE EVENING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIXING WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY SHEAR LAYERS.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...ARNOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1221 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS NI THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TEMPS TDAY AND THEN
POPS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

WITH DRY HIGH PRES EXITING THE AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
LINGER AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EVENING...BUT WITH AN INCREASING
SW WIND AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A
LOW PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
BY EVENING WITH JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS RATHER
THAN LLWS. AS THE LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES...A BAND OF -SN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ARRIVING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX AND
THEN A FEW HRS LATER AT KSAW. WITH COMBINATION OF -SN AND SOME
BLSN...VIS WILL PROBABLY DROP TO IFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR A FEW HRS
THOUGH KSAW WOULD BE MOST FAVORED FOR LOW VIS WITH STRONGER WINDS
CREATING MORE BLSN THERE. QUICK ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
DIMINISH THE SNOW FROM W-E...BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL
TERMINALS THRU WED MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GAYLORD MI

1153 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

TEMPERATURES WERE COLD WHERE IT CLEARED. HERE ARE THE LEADERS THIS
MORNING...INDIAN RIVER (-25F)...PELLSTON AND ATLANTA (-23F)
GAYLORD (-21F).

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

LIGHT WNW FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING SPORADIC MVFR
CIGS TO MBL/TVC THROUGH MID MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLOUD
UP AGAIN DUE TO DIURNAL PROCESSES...AT LEAST FOR A CHUNK OF THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD INITIALLY BE MVFR. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON WHETHER OR NOT THE CIGS CAN RETURN TO MVFR TONIGHT AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SW...SCRAPING THE NW LOWER COASTLINE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS HOWEVER.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

434 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE ARKLAMISS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING..

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE REGION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONG
UPPER S/WV IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BEHIND THE S/WV THAT BROUGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLD TODAY AS LAPS
INDICATES H925 TEMPS AROUND 0 TO -1 DEG C FROM ALONG/NW OF A LINE
FROM WINNSBORO TO COLUMBUS. SURFACE FREEZING TEMPERATURE/WET BULB
LINE RUNS FROM SW/NE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE H925 LINE INDICATED
BEFORE. THIS IS ALL INDICATING TEMPERATURES IN THE W/NW WILL ONLY
BARELY RISE OR STAY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. GFS/EURO/NAM BUFFER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN THE FAR NW DELTA...AND CURRENT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REPORTS COMING
IN ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THAT POTENTIAL.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AS LOCAL WRF/HRRR
AND GLOBAL MODEL SUITE...ECMWF/GFS...INDICATE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING ICING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE DELTA LATER TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE SOME TRANSITION TO SNOW AND HI-RES HRRR INDICATES POTENTIAL
OF QPF APPROACHING 0.1-0.25 INCHES BY 02Z TONIGHT. THUS...INTRODUCED
CHANCE SNOW/SLEET IN THE FAR NW DELTA. ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE 00Z WILL
BE LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH. ALSO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED A TIER OF COUNTIES SE DUE TO TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING IN THESE AREAS AND LIKELY NOT TO RISE MUCH...IF AT
ALL...LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THERE IS SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT ICING IN THESE LOCATIONS ALONG/NW OF A LINE FROM
FERRIDAY TO JACKSON TO NEAR MACON. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE FREEZING
RAIN IN THESE AREAS UNTIL 6Z WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WENT CLOSE TO BLEND OF
MAV/MEN FOR LOWS/POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
ENOUGH FOR A VARIETY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. FROM AREAS SE OF A LINE
FROM CROSSETT TO GREENWOOD...MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SLEET/ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MELTING LAYER APPROACHING 2000-5000
FT DEEP WILL SUPPORT SOME PARTIAL AND FULL MELT SCENARIOS. AREAS IN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING COUNTIES WILL HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NW. ACCUMULATIONS
OF ICE TONIGHT WILL APPROACH 0.5-1.0 INCHES...WHICH WILL CAUSE
HEAVY ICING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER
OUTAGES. UPPER S/WV WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL
AID IN A SW TO NE ORIENTED FREEZING LINE. A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL BE PRESENT AS H85 FLOW CONVERGES IN THE FAR NW. THE COMBINATION
OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...AS DEPICTED IN PRECIP ON THE FAR NW SIDE
OF THE 1010MB SURFACE LOW...AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD APPROACH 1-3 INCHES AND SOME HI-RES HRRR RUNS WERE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...EXPECTING A COMBINATION OF SLEET/SNOW TO
CUT DOWN SNOW TOTAL IN THIS REGION. WENT NEAR MAV/MEN FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. WENT NEAR MAV
POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT KEPT HIGHER POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...WHICH IS MAINLY IN N/NE MS.

AS THE UPPER S/WV MOVES OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE LOW MOVES
E....TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL AND MIXED PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MORE RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SNOW/MIX IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL/E
MS AS THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION TO ONLY TRANSITION FOR A SHORT PERIOD FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WILL EXTEND UNTIL 6Z THURSDAY BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE REGION. 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND LOWS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S. AREAS IN THE W/NW THAT RECEIVE
SNOWFALL/ICE WILL LIKELY KEEP THAT AROUND UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WENT NEAR MAV/MEN BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY...LEADING TO A NICE AND MUCH
WARMER AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WENT NEAR MAVMOS FOR
HIGHS THURSDAY. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WARMER AS SOME CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WENT NEAR MAVMOS. PREVIOUS
RELEVANT PORTION OF LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL THANKFULLY LOOKING
WARMER AND RELATIVELY UNEXCITING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN OUR GENERAL
VICINITY AND ALONG OUR LATITUDE SHOULD TREND QUICKLY TO ZONAL FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE RENEWED EAST PACIFIC JET SLAMMING ENERGY INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE BULK OF THE WINTER THUS
FAR AND WILL BE KEEPING ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP FURTHER NORTH.
REGARDLESS...A COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO COME THROUGH FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS TILL THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT OFFICIAL RAIN MENTION FOR FRIDAY OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
FORECAST.

BY THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH
AROUND TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FROPA WITH MARGINAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
POTENTIAL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REALLY BE TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL IN WIDESPREAD FASHION. OPERATIONAL GFS-BASED MAX
GUIDANCE LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH BOTH TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. /BB/

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR AT KGLH/KGWO
AFTER 12/00Z AS FZRA MOVES INTO THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AT KGTR...BUT ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS WILL MEAN JUST RAIN AS A
WEATHER TYPE THERE. IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE
RULE OVERNIGHT AT KJAN/KHKS/KMEI/KHBG. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
FZRA AT KJAN/KHKS...BUT CHANGE TO RA AFTER 12/06Z. /26/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 33 38 26 53 / 100 36 14 0
MERIDIAN 37 44 26 57 / 100 78 24 0
VICKSBURG 32 36 25 54 / 100 26 4 0
HATTIESBURG 38 47 30 56 / 99 44 15 0
NATCHEZ 31 36 26 56 / 100 24 2 0
GREENVILLE 27 32 24 51 / 95 40 7 0
GREENWOOD 29 36 25 52 / 96 70 15 0

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ029>033-
037>039-043-044-048-053.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>028-034>036-040>042-047.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ045-
049-050-054-059-060.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ024-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LAZ026.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

DC/BB/26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1226 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST NAM12 AND RUC13 TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FORECASTS
SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A COLD RAIN FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SLEET
SHOWER AS SOME ENHANCED ECHOES MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECT RAIN AS THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR... MOST LOCATIONS ARE
ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER A FEW SPOTS ARE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
AND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS...SUSPECT THE TEMPERATURE COULD
QUICKLY DROP TO FREEZING IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW... WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO. ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU... WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AS OF NOON.
ICING HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL AND THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN SEVERAL AUTO ACCIDENTS. WE/LL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTACT
HERE AS WELL AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RADZ...WITH -FZDZ/-FZRA/IP WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING NORTH OF A KDRT TO KBAZ TO KGYB LINE...WILL SLOWLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
VSBYS IMPROVE TO VFR AS PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CIGS WILL
ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING VFR. NLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH RUC13 AND NAM12 DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ROCKSPRINGS...KERRVILLE AND
FREDERICKSBURG. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THIS
REGION... WE HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SITES
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE AREA TERMINALS.
THERE IS A WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN ACROSS KAUS...KSAT AND
KSSF BETWEEN 12Z/16Z AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAIN. VSBYS WILL
INCREASE TO VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS KDRT...IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
FOR FEW HOURS (13Z/16Z) BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS WARRANTED FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HWY 90. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY...SHOWING A RELUCTANCE TO
SPREAD SOUTH OF THE ESCARPMENT. FARTHER EAST...THE RECENT
EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS SHOWS LESS CERTAINTY.
NEARLY ALL THE ADVY AREA IS NOW EITHER BELOW FREEZING OR WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING SAVE FOR DEL RIO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THE PRIMARY TYPE HAS BEEN DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WAS EXPECTED UP TO THIS POINT. THE LIGHT AND
SCARCELY REPORTED PRECIP EAST OF I-35 WAS ONE REASON TO EXTEND THE
AREA EAST SINCE THE LACK OF FALLING MOISTURE HAD ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL STEADILY. THE OTHER REASON IS THAT MODEL DATA
AND THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASING TREND TOWARD SOME
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE MORNING UPDATE INTRODUCES SLEET AS A
PRECIP TYPE TO ACCOUNT FOR A DEEPENING COLD LAYER SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. GFS DPROG-DT TRENDS LOOK TO BE
CATCHING UP WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
SHALLOW UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS TX LATE TODAY. AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT IT
DESERVES MENTION THAT SPC HAS A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA
EXTENDING FROM EAST TX WEST TO NEAR A BURNET TO CUERO LINE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SLEET SHOWERS IS ENOUGH REASON TO MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT VALID TIME RUNNING THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH WESTERN
PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO BE CLEARED BY
MIDDAY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE
ACROSS SW COUNTIES TO AS MUCH AS 2/10 INCH OVER CENTRAL TX...WITH
MOST NON-SLEET ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1/10 INCH.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS CLEAR FAST WITH SUBSIDENCE REPLACING THE
PASSING TROUGH...AND NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER 9 PM. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT NE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD
LEAVE POCKETS OF CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. THUS WILL AVOID CHASING THE STEADY COOLING TREND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF GUIDANCES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PATTERN CHANGE
THAT SHOWS LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET LEAVES TX IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SPECIFIC WEATHER
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE VAGUE DUE TO A SMOOTH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 36 31 58 35 68 / 60 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 35 27 57 28 67 / 60 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 36 28 57 30 67 / 50 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 34 26 57 31 67 / 60 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 43 29 65 37 74 / 20 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 34 27 56 31 67 / 70 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 40 27 64 32 72 / 40 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 36 27 57 29 66 / 60 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 37 31 54 33 64 / 70 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 37 30 62 36 70 / 50 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 38 29 61 34 71 / 50 10 0 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...VAL
VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1145 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RADZ...WITH -FZDZ/-FZRA/IP WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING NORTH OF A KDRT TO KBAZ TO KGYB LINE...WILL SLOWLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
VSBYS IMPROVE TO VFR AS PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CIGS WILL
ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING VFR. NLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LEE...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS FORT WORTH TX

1140 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT KACT.

PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AND BEGINNING TO
IMPACT THE AIRPORTS. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND SLEET TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 2-3
PM IN THE METROPLEX. AT THAT TIME...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END BUT SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
6 PM. ALSO...AROUND 3 PM...TEMPERATURES IN THE METROPLEX WILL
REACH NEAR FREEZING AND WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID PRECIP
AND/OR SLEET. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 6 PM. MAY SEE A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AT WACO...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A RAIN/SLEET MIX.
PRECIP SHOULD ALSO END BY 5/6 PM. ALSO AT WACO...MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT.

82/JLD

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET/SNOW CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY WARM
TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN NEARLY ALL COUNTIES. WE STILL
EXPECT IMPACTS FROM THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE...CLEBURNE...DFW TO BONHAM LINE WHERE MOST
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 20S.

THE ONLY AREAS THAT WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MILAM...ROBERTSON...LEON AND ANDERSON
COUNTIES. THEREFORE...WE HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE ADVISORY IN
THESE LOCATIONS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX WITH SLEET IN THESE COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...NO
TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM ICE ARE EXPECTED.

TRAVEL MAY CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AFTER SUNSET ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND RESIDUAL
WATER FREEZES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 33 26 47 31 60 / 50 10 0 0 0
WACO, TX 34 25 50 29 62 / 60 20 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 33 23 46 29 57 / 40 20 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 32 23 47 28 60 / 50 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 33 24 46 28 58 / 50 20 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 34 27 47 32 60 / 50 20 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 33 24 46 30 58 / 50 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 34 26 47 32 59 / 60 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 34 27 51 31 63 / 60 20 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 31 23 49 29 64 / 50 10 0 0 0

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

82/79

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1006 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH RUC13 AND NAM12 DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ROCKSPRINGS...KERRVILLE AND
FREDERICKSBURG. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THIS
REGION... WE HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12