Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/10/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
904 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER QUICKLY IS PASSING THROUGH WITH LIGHT SNOW
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. AN ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CATSKILLS WITH BACK END OF THE LGT SNOW
MOVING INTO WESTERN NJ AS OF 02Z. AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL PA IS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO OUR REGION WITH DOWNSLOPE AND SUPPORT FROM
LAST SEVERAL HRRR AND RAPID REFRESH RUNS. SNOW TOTALS RIGHT
AROUND AN INCH. VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FOR NYC AND
AREAS NORTH AND WEST.
QUICKLY ENDING SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS SEEN IN HRRR AND
SUPPORTED BY RADAR. THEN JUST A CHC OF A FLURRY WITH THE COLD
FROPA.
LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED SLIGHT TO FOLLOW TRENDS AND LATEST LAMP
DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY AND CONTINUED COLD WEATHER. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIPRES TUE-WED WILL BRING FAIR WX TO THE CWA. FCST TEMPS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE.
MAIN FOCUS IS THEN THE POTENTIAL STORM IN THE WED NGT THRU THU TIME
PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE BEST FIT TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS SLOWER...WEAKER AND FURTHER E THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH INCLUDED A VERY DEEP GEM. AS A RESULT...FCST HAS
BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS A COLDER...OFFSHORE TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING A
SNOWSTORM TO THE CWA WITH PERHAPS THE SERN COASTS AS AN EXCEPTION.
UPPED POPS TO 54 PERCENT...BUT KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
POTENTIAL STORM IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO BE CERTAIN OF THE EXACT
TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY. REINSERTED MODERATE PCPN INTENSITY
INTO THE GRIDS.
USED ECMWF DEWPOINTS AS A SFC TEMP INDICATOR. MODEL TEMP FIELDS AND
GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM IN A STRONG VERTICAL MOTION SCENARIO WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOLLOW THE STORM QUICKLY WITH A SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN...ON FRI OR FRI NGT. LOW CHC POPS
INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THIS. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM THRU OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF NOW DELAYS IT
TIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED SCHC POPS LATE SAT
INTO SUN CLOSE TO THE CONSISTENT GFS SOLN.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS OF 02Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
EXPECT ALL BUT A FEW FLURRIES AFT 04Z IN THE NY METRO. SNOW ENDS
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS BY OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT (KGON). VFR
QUICKLY DEVELOPS AS WINDS VEER TO NW.
SNOWFALL TOTALS RIGHT AROUND 1 INCH AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING QUICKLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT LOCAL.
VFR WITH NW FLOW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MOST OF THE DAY....BUT ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET. FOR THE NY METRO - WIND DIRECTION AVERAGES JUST
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON NGT-TUE...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT ON TUE.
.WED...VFR.
.WED NGT-THU NGT...IFR IN SN TO START...THEN PCPN TYPE UNCERTAIN
ALONG COAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THU DEPENDING ON LOW TRACT. POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SN. GUSTY E-NE WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS OCEAN WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. ANY SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK ITO INTO THE AREA.
HIPRES WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE N AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A FEW MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER
THE ERN OCEAN AS THIS OCCURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA
LVLS.
LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INVOF THE WATERS WED NGT-THU. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES TO THE REGION.
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS ON FRI...CONTINUING ON SUN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN ICE
BUILD UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 1/10TH OF AN INCH...IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.
ORGANIZED PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRES DURING THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX...AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS MORNING. 00Z
NAM SOUNDINGS DO MOISTEN UP THE MID AND UPPER COLUMN...BUT KEEP
THE LOWER LEVELS DRY. HOWEVER...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY
EXIST IN THE SOUTH. SO...THINK BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE ATL METRO. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO KEEP
THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH.
NO CHANGES TO POPS/TEMPS NEEDED. THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014/
.PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA DUE TO
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. OVERALL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST TREND OF KEEPING THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THAT AREA. MODELS SHOW
THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN GEORGIA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND WILL EXIT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
8-9AM SATURDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA RAIN-FREE BY
THE AFTERNOON. DRY MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INITIALLY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VIRGA...AND THAT AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
MOISTENS...WILL GRADUALLY SEE PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT STILL
EXPECT PORTIONS OF NORTH AND WESTERN GEORGIA TO DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE AREAS
THAT HAVE A TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT WINTER PRECIPITATION
ARE NOT THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
IF PRECIPITATION IS ENOUGH TO WET SURFACES ACROSS FAR NORTH
GEORGIA...WHERE LOWS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...VERY PATCHY
BLACK ICE WILL BE A CONCERN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL
IMPACTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
/SPSFFC/.
CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES...WITH MID
50S TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY...AND SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.
31
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT LOOKS TO BE
LARGELY ON TRACK. SOME INDICATION FOR LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL IN
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
CONSISTENCY TO INCLUDE IN FUTURE UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
BAKER
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014/
NO EASY FORECASTING FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODEL DIFFERENCES AND COLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OVER N GA MAKE PRECIP TYPE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST.
MODELS CONSISTENT MOVING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED BUT COULD CAUSE SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES OVER MAINLY N GA.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY HOWEVER THE EUROPEAN DOES BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
ACROSS N GA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO N GA AS WELL.
EUROPEAN WETTER ON MONDAY SPREADING MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS IS DRY WITH MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
N. FOR NOW KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE N. BOTH MODELS
INDICATING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GFS NOW
WETTER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT COULD CAUSE A RAIN
SNOW OR EVEN SLEET MIX. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FAVORING THE EUROPEAN MODEL WITH A CAD AIRMASS AND
OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETTING UP AND PRODUCING A COLD RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME TYPE OF
WINTER MIX FAVORING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW OF THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO E COAST THURSDAY
MORNING GREATLY DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
AGAIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME TYPE OR MIX
FAVORING RAIN AND SNOW.
BDL
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CSG TO
MCN AND SOUTH. SOME LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH GA BEFORE 13Z...INCLUDING ATL. CEILINGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3
THSD FT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST AFTER 13Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 54 36 59 37 / 0 50 40 5
ATLANTA 50 37 57 39 / 5 40 30 5
BLAIRSVILLE 46 32 51 32 / 5 30 30 5
CARTERSVILLE 48 32 56 32 / 5 30 20 5
COLUMBUS 55 39 59 38 / 5 70 60 5
GAINESVILLE 49 36 54 38 / 5 30 30 5
MACON 56 37 60 37 / 5 80 70 5
ROME 47 30 54 31 / 5 30 20 5
PEACHTREE CITY 52 34 58 33 / 5 60 50 5
VIDALIA 59 44 60 43 / 5 80 70 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
544 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
...Updated for the 00z Taf`s and aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
As the next upper tropospheric jet streak continues to approach
tonight, there will be an increase in the response in the 800-600mb
layer (particularly noted at 700mb) as an increase in deformation
and convergence along the slowly southward moving mid level
baroclinic zone. The latest runs of the HRRR are starting to line up
nicely with other mesoscale models and even coarser global models
with a west-northwest to east-southeast axis of light to moderate
snow. The zone of 700mb frontogenesis will only be strongest over
any one location for about 3 or 4 hours before quickly shifting off
to the east. The fast duration of the event alone will limit
potential accumulations, however during the height of the snowfall,
rates could be on the order of one-half to three-quarters inch per
hour. Placement of the heaviest snow band(s) is also still somewhat
in question, but feel pretty confident it (they) will ultimately lie
somewhere along/north of Highway 50 and south of Highway 4. The
winter weather advisory that was issued midday encompasses this
region of the forecast area for a general 1 to 3 inch accumulation.
Given the expected banded nature of the event and forward motion of
the frontogenesis somewhat parallel to band orientation, some
isolated amounts in excess of 3 inches will be possible. Global and
mesoscale models both show the meso-alpha scale frontogenesis
weakening toward daybreak as it shifts toward south-central Kansas,
so will be going with slightly lower amounts across the
Stafford-Pratt-Barber County zone. We went ahead and removed the
snow out of the forecast for the bulk of the day Monday except for
the very end of the day across far southwest Kansas. The rest of the
forecast was left unchanged as it appeared to be in pretty good
shape (regarding temperatures, wind, etc.)
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough moving
southeastward across the Western High Plains Monday night bringing
precip chances to the region very early in the period. As the
shortwave moves through, surface high pressure across the Upper
Midwest will provide a southeasterly upslope flow near the surface
while surface low pressure develops across New Mexico. This will
set up increased low level convergence across the panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma into portions of southwest Kansas. Although the
flow aloft will be less than favorable, enough low/mid level
forcing will be present, including the presence of some H7
frontogenetic banding, to support light snow development across
the panhandles with snow possibly reaching across the border into
southwest Kansas. Fairly light QPF signals and PW values down
around a quarter inch suggest minimal snow accumulations generally
less than one inch through Tuesday morning. Drier conditions are
then expected through the end of the week as weak upper level
ridging develops across the Intermountain West.
Temperatures will warm up Tuesday as surface high pressure departs
eastern Kansas to the east returning a southerly low level flow
to western Kansas. This will draw slightly warmer air northward
with H85 temperatures ranging from around 5C below across central
Kansas to near 0C in far southwest Kansas. Along with the help of
expected decreased cloud cover, look for highs well up into the
30s(F) Tuesday afternoon with near 40F possible in extreme
southwest Kansas. The warming trend continues into Wednesday with
widespread 40s(F) expected for highs with near 50F possible in far
southwest Kansas. Highs are likely to reach the 50s(F) to near 60F
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Flight conditions will start in the lower MVFR cig categories, but
will quickly lower into the IFR category in both cigs and vsbys.
Light snow will be increasing as the night progresses, taking cigs
down to LIFR and vsbys into the 1-2sm -sn br category. Winds will
remain from the northeast and under 10 mph. The short wave will
move through rapidly, and the light snow should end toward 12z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 8 16 4 32 / 80 20 20 0
GCK 8 18 6 34 / 80 10 20 0
EHA 12 24 12 40 / 30 20 30 10
LBL 12 21 8 36 / 40 20 20 10
HYS 5 13 0 30 / 60 20 10 0
P28 9 17 4 30 / 80 60 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Monday FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-076>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1027 AM MST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT FEB 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A
CHANGING FLOW PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC REMAINS AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE. SINCE THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH HAVE PULLED
FURTHER WEST...THIS HAS ALLOWED A NEARLY ZONAL AND FAST/PROGRESSIVE
FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE ATLANTIC. NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS MODIFIED OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE SNOWFIELD AND CLOUD COVER
CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID
LEVELS...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE ECMWF...UKMET...CANADIAN
AND GFS DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE
WIND PRESSURE FIELD. IT WAS HANDLING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST
VERY WELL. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE NAM WAS DOING THE WORST. MODELS TENDED
TO NOT HAVE THE COLD AIR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH. HRRR AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING
ON. BOTH OF THESE ARE SHOWING FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
PORTION THROUGH LATE MORNING. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET MOVES
INTO/ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
AT THIS TIME...ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE EVENING.
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE WITH THIS INITIAL JET AND MID LEVEL
LIFT. SO KEPT FLURRIES IN THIS AREA. STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS INTO
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OR JET AXIS
MOVES INTO OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION VERY QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU USE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE COULD BE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST
PORTION BY 12Z. DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ESTABLISHES ITSELF
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AFTER 06Z AND IN THE FAR
NORTH.
SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE DEPTH AND LIFT SUPPORT GOING CHANCE IN THE NORTH
AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND FLURRIES IN THE FAR
SOUTH. PRIOR TO THE AIR MASS GETTING COLD ENOUGH AND GETTING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE...THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW...SOUNDING PROFILE...AND
MORE THAN ONE MODEL INDICATE THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
SO ADDED THAT IN.
TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE. ONE
TREND THAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE YESTERDAY IS THEY ARE WARMER...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF. PER INITIAL ANALYSIS AND
CONSISTENCY BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS THE RIGHT IDEA ON THE ARRIVAL OF
A PRESSURE/COOL SURGE BY LATE MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTH AND EAST
WILL REMAIN IN THE COOL AIR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SNOW COVER...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETS DOWNSLOPE WINDS. HOWEVER IT WILL
STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER AND SNOWFIELD.
GOING BY WHAT WENT ON YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TO OUR WEST...
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO WARM. SO TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET SHIFTS TO OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LIFT COMBINED WITH THE SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT HAVING NORTHEAST HALF HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE MORNING. MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. SO FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW. COLD
AIR ADVECTION...UPSLOPE WINDS/CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH AND LOWERED MAXES OR KEPT THEM
LOW. POSSIBLE THAT I STILL MAY BE TOO WARM.
RIGHT BEHIND FIRST JET COMES IN ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
ANOTHER JET. BY 06Z...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET AND THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE NEW SOUTHERN JET COMING IN. THEY KEEP THIS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH AND
SATURATION CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND REALLY IS THE BEST OUT OF ANY
SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALSO THE THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE VERY CLOSE TO
ZERO. SO ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...RAISED POPS TO A HIGH CHANCE. POPS
MAY STILL NEED TO BE RAISED SOME MORE.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET STRUCTURE OR RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BY 18Z AND
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA...MOSTLY SOUTH. ABOVE MENTIONED JET LIFT
LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. SO KEPT SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING WITH FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
NIGHT LOOKS DRY. NOTHING REALLY SHOWS VERY MUCH WARMING FOR MAXES.
SO LOWERED MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE
VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A LINGERING SNOW FIELD...ADDITIONAL
COOLING OF MAXES MAY BE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT FEB 8 2014
FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A PLUME OF
1000-500MB MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE MODELS DISAGREE
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL AFFECT NOT ONLY
PRECIP. CHANCES BUT ALSO COLD FRONT ARRIVAL BOTH MID WEEK AND LATE
WEEK. AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH PRECIP. CHANCES FOR THURS NIGHT BUT
THE MEAN OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAVORING THE ECMWF 500MB
PATTERN THURS. NIGHT. WITH ECMWF QPF FAVORING THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT
AM INCLINED TO GO WITH CONSENSUS WHICH PLACES PRECIP. CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE GENERAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND WARM
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY WARMING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DUE TO DISCREPANCIES IN
FRONTAL TIMING AFTER TUESDAY...HARD TO TREND TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
CONSENSUS OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST SAT FEB 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THEN WORSEN TO
IFR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
448 AM MST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT FEB 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A
CHANGING FLOW PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC REMAINS AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE. SINCE THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH HAVE PULLED
FURTHER WEST...THIS HAS ALLOWED A NEARLY ZONAL AND FAST/PROGRESSIVE
FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE ATLANTIC. NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS MODIFIED OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE SNOWFIELD AND CLOUD COVER
CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID
LEVELS...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE ECMWF...UKMET...CANADIAN
AND GFS DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE
WIND PRESSURE FIELD. IT WAS HANDLING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST
VERY WELL. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE NAM WAS DOING THE WORST. MODELS TENDED
TO NOT HAVE THE COLD AIR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH. HRRR AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING
ON. BOTH OF THESE ARE SHOWING FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
PORTION THROUGH LATE MORNING. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET MOVES
INTO/ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
AT THIS TIME...ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE EVENING.
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE WITH THIS INITIAL JET AND MID LEVEL
LIFT. SO KEPT FLURRIES IN THIS AREA. STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS INTO
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OR JET AXIS
MOVES INTO OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION VERY QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU USE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE COULD BE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST
PORTION BY 12Z. DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ESTABLISHES ITSELF
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AFTER 06Z AND IN THE FAR
NORTH.
SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE DEPTH AND LIFT SUPPORT GOING CHANCE IN THE NORTH
AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND FLURRIES IN THE FAR
SOUTH. PRIOR TO THE AIR MASS GETTING COLD ENOUGH AND GETTING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE...THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW...SOUNDING PROFILE...AND
MORE THAN ONE MODEL INDICATE THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
SO ADDED THAT IN.
TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE. ONE
TREND THAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE YESTERDAY IS THEY ARE WARMER...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF. PER INITIAL ANALYSIS AND
CONSISTENCY BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS THE RIGHT IDEA ON THE ARRIVAL OF
A PRESSURE/COOL SURGE BY LATE MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTH AND EAST
WILL REMAIN IN THE COOL AIR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SNOW COVER...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETS DOWNSLOPE WINDS. HOWEVER IT WILL
STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER AND SNOWFIELD.
GOING BY WHAT WENT ON YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TO OUR WEST...
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO WARM. SO TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET SHIFTS TO OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LIFT COMBINED WITH THE SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT HAVING NORTHEAST HALF HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE MORNING. MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. SO FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW. COLD
AIR ADVECTION...UPSLOPE WINDS/CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH AND LOWERED MAXES OR KEPT THEM
LOW. POSSIBLE THAT I STILL MAY BE TOO WARM.
RIGHT BEHIND FIRST JET COMES IN ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
ANOTHER JET. BY 06Z...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET AND THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE NEW SOUTHERN JET COMING IN. THEY KEEP THIS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH AND
SATURATION CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND REALLY IS THE BEST OUT OF ANY
SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALSO THE THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE VERY CLOSE TO
ZERO. SO ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...RAISED POPS TO A HIGH CHANCE. POPS
MAY STILL NEED TO BE RAISED SOME MORE.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET STRUCTURE OR RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BY 18Z AND
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA...MOSTLY SOUTH. ABOVE MENTIONED JET LIFT
LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. SO KEPT SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING WITH FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
NIGHT LOOKS DRY. NOTHING REALLY SHOWS VERY MUCH WARMING FOR MAXES.
SO LOWERED MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE
VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A LINGERING SNOW FIELD...ADDITIONAL
COOLING OF MAXES MAY BE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT FEB 8 2014
FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A PLUME OF
1000-500MB MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE MODELS DISAGREE
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL AFFECT NOT ONLY
PRECIP. CHANCES BUT ALSO COLD FRONT ARRIVAL BOTH MID WEEK AND LATE
WEEK. AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH PRECIP. CHANCES FOR THURS NIGHT BUT
THE MEAN OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAVORING THE ECMWF 500MB
PATTERN THURS. NIGHT. WITH ECMWF QPF FAVORING THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT
AM INCLINED TO GO WITH CONSENSUS WHICH PLACES PRECIP. CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE GENERAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND WARM
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY WARMING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DUE TO DISCREPANCIES IN
FRONTAL TIMING AFTER TUESDAY...HARD TO TREND TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
CONSENSUS OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MST SAT FEB 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THAT FRONT LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP. BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT OR NEAR KMCK BEGINNING AT 06Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
523 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
09Z water vapor imagery shows a general west to northwest flow
across the country with several weak waves within it. One shortwave
can be seen moving across IA with another right on its heels. At the
surface, a surface ridge to the east of the area is gradually
weakening with an area of low pressure gradually deepening over the
northern and central high plains. This has allowed relatively warmer
and more moist air to move into central and eastern KS.
For today the models show the isentropic lift associated with the
warm air advection pattern to gradually weaken. So think the light
flurries will end across eastern KS by mid morning. Overall with the
northwest flow persisting and the occasional weak disturbance moving
through it, it becomes difficult to rule out precip chances even
though forcing and vertical motion progged by the models would only
support light precipitation with mainly trace accumulations. Most
solutions now bring the next cold front through the area overnight
with some mid level frontogenesis. While moisture could be better
with the front, have left some slight chance pops in the forecast
late tonight in case a small band of light snow is able to form. Am
not to sure there will be more flurries tonight ahead of the front
as model forecast soundings show the better warm air advection
lifting above the stratus deck with little vertical motion within
the cloud. So think the better opportunity for precip will be driven
by any mid level frontogenesis along the frontal boundary. Temps
this morning have been gradually rising due to overcast skies and
weak warm air advection. Think the weak warm air advection will
persist through the day today with temps gradually rising. However
highs around 30 may be a little optimistic since the stratus is
likely to hang in through the day limiting insolation. Because of
this have trended temps down a degree or two with mid 20s expected
along the NEB state line and highs around 30 in east central KS.
Lows Sunday morning should fall into the teens as cold air advection
increases behind the front.
Wolters
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
Next chances of snow Sunday and Monday remain light overall with
minor changes made to the previous forecast. Model consistency
between runs due to the very active however weak flow pattern
continues to create difficulty in handling precipitation chances and
temperatures.
Within the active quasi zonal flow pattern, the next wave in a
series of embedded shortwave troughs is progged to impact the area
Sunday afternoon. Most guidance has been somewhat consistent in a PV
anomaly translating southeast across the northern plains into the
Great Lakes region. Strength and timing of this trough continues to
change between runs. The ECMWF is the most robust with another
progressive trough quickly following behind the first. This
particular wave is further south, resulting in stronger forcing and
much higher QPF values than all other guidance across our area.
Consensus though depicts this wave translating across the northern
plains instead so left in the lighter liquid precipitation values on
Sunday afternoon. Saturation is also in question as drier air
advecting southward keeps the column from complete saturation,
unless we reach wetbulb temperatures. The NAM would suggest little
to no precip for much of the area while models generate varying
amounts to decipher. Regardless of the above factors, believe weak
frontogenetical forcing and gradual saturation in the column will
result in light snowfall during the day. Highest chances were placed
mainly along and north of Interstate 70. Locations near the Nebraska
and Kansas border can expect snowfall accumulations near an inch
with lesser amounts anticipated further south. Left slight chances
for light snow Sunday evening with highest chances Monday as another
PV anomaly develops over the Rockies, tracking eastward into Kansas.
This system may produce snowfall up to an inch for areas south of
Interstate 70. Precipitation chances then come to an end by Monday
evening.
The passing wave to our north on Sunday will steepen the pressure
gradient and result in gusty north winds during the afternoon.
Steady cold air advection into the area under overcast skies should
drag highs back down in the upper teens to lower 20s before the
surface arctic high builds southward, falling temps to the single
digits Monday morning. Wind chill readings range from 5 to 12 below
zero. Center of the 1040 MB surface ridge gradually moves eastward
Monday with one final day of highs in the teens Tuesday morning and
lows in the single digits.
Forecast from Tuesday through Friday remains dry as moisture
availability is almost non-existent despite the active upper flow
pattern. Southerly flow returns on the backside of the ridge, where
a gradual warm up commences. Models may be too cool on Tuesday highs
dependent on how strong the southwest winds are. Temperatures should
definitely reach above freezing by Wednesday, increasing to the 40s
on Thursday and Friday as warm air advection increases from the southwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
Low level inversion is expected to prevent stratus from mixing out
today. Even if it does the RAP and NAM show steep low level lapse
rates conducive for stratocu to form. So the forecast maintains MVFR
CIGS. There is some uncertainty in whether the CIG remains below
2KFT or rises above it. The RAP and NAM are fairly quick to lower
CIGS this afternoon, and I don`t have a good reason for this. Any
measurable precip look unlikely, but there may be a slight chance
overnight with the FROPA and some increasing frontogenesis.
However confidence in precip is to low to include in the forecast
at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
411 AM MST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT FEB 8 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A
CHANGING FLOW PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC REMAINS AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE. SINCE THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH HAVE PULLED
FURTHER WEST...THIS HAS ALLOWED A NEARLY ZONAL AND FAST/PROGRESSIVE
FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE ATLANTIC. NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS MODIFIED OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE SNOWFIELD AND CLOUD COVER
CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID
LEVELS...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE ECMWF...UKMET...CANADIAN
AND GFS DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE
WIND PRESSURE FIELD. IT WAS HANDLING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST
VERY WELL. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THE NAM WAS DOING THE WORST. MODELS TENDED
TO NOT HAVE THE COLD AIR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH. HRRR AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING
ON. BOTH OF THESE ARE SHOWING FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
PORTION THROUGH LATE MORNING. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET MOVES
INTO/ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
AT THIS TIME...ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE EVENING.
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE WITH THIS INITIAL JET AND MID LEVEL
LIFT. SO KEPT FLURRIES IN THIS AREA. STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS INTO
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OR JET AXIS
MOVES INTO OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION VERY QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU USE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE COULD BE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST
PORTION BY 12Z. DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ESTABLISHES ITSELF
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AFTER 06Z AND IN THE FAR
NORTH.
SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE DEPTH AND LIFT SUPPORT GOING CHANCE IN THE NORTH
AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND FLURRIES IN THE FAR
SOUTH. PRIOR TO THE AIR MASS GETTING COLD ENOUGH AND GETTING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE...THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW...SOUNDING PROFILE...AND
MORE THAN ONE MODEL INDICATE THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
SO ADDED THAT IN.
TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE. ONE
TREND THAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE YESTERDAY IS THEY ARE WARMER...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF. PER INITIAL ANALYSIS AND
CONSISTENCY BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS THE RIGHT IDEA ON THE ARRIVAL OF
A PRESSURE/COOL SURGE BY LATE MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTH AND EAST
WILL REMAIN IN THE COOL AIR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SNOW COVER...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETS DOWNSLOPE WINDS. HOWEVER IT WILL
STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER AND SNOWFIELD.
GOING BY WHAT WENT ON YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TO OUR WEST...
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO WARM. SO TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET SHIFTS TO OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LIFT COMBINED WITH THE SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT HAVING NORTHEAST HALF HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE MORNING. MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. SO FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW. COLD
AIR ADVECTION...UPSLOPE WINDS/CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH AND LOWERED MAXES OR KEPT THEM
LOW. POSSIBLE THAT I STILL MAY BE TOO WARM.
RIGHT BEHIND FIRST JET COMES IN ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
ANOTHER JET. BY 06Z...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET AND THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE NEW SOUTHERN JET COMING IN. THEY KEEP THIS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH AND
SATURATION CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND REALLY IS THE BEST OUT OF ANY
SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALSO THE THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE VERY CLOSE TO
ZERO. SO ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...RAISED POPS TO A HIGH CHANCE. POPS
MAY STILL NEED TO BE RAISED SOME MORE.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET STRUCTURE OR RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BY 18Z AND
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA...MOSTLY SOUTH. ABOVE MENTIONED JET LIFT
LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. SO KEPT SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING WITH FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
NIGHT LOOKS DRY. NOTHING REALLY SHOWS VERY MUCH WARMING FOR MAXES.
SO LOWERED MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE
VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A LINGERING SNOW FIELD...ADDITIONAL
COOLING OF MAXES MAY BE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT FEB 8 2014
FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A PLUME OF
1000-500MB MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE MODELS DISAGREE
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL AFFECT NOT ONLY
PRECIP. CHANCES BUT ALSO COLD FRONT ARRIVAL BOTH MID WEEK AND LATE
WEEK. AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH PRECIP. CHANCES FOR THURS NIGHT BUT
THE MEAN OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAVORING THE ECMWF 500MB
PATTERN THURS. NIGHT. WITH ECMWF QPF FAVORING THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT
AM INCLINED TO GO WITH CONSENSUS WHICH PLACES PRECIP. CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE GENERAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND WARM
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY WARMING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DUE TO DISCREPANCIES IN
FRONTAL TIMING AFTER TUESDAY...HARD TO TREND TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
CONSENSUS OUTPUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
GLD WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ARE EXPECTED WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWER CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND 6
MILES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 04Z SATURDAY EVENING AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
MCK WILL BE VFR TROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SATURDAY EVENING AS MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. BY 02Z...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR
WITH VISIBILITY DECREASING TO AROUND 3 MILES AND CEILINGS BECOMING
LESS THAN 2K FT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
436 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL
BE LIMITED RISK OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH UNTIL MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE OF SOME COLD LIGHT RAIN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. LASTLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD.
LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW COMBINED WITH SOME SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. READINGS ACROSS THE REGION WERE GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER
30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. AREA RADAR SHOWS THAT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS EXITING THE EAST. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RETURNS OVER LOUISIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING
TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS.
FOR THIS MORNING THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOWS SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. SO WITH COOL
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN ANY
ACCUMULATION OF WINTER PRECIP...BUT WITH SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDMORNING WHEN
TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. SO WILL PUT IN TEEN POPS SINCE COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRYER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY....EXPECT A DRYER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD
AS WE START TO GET A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY AS WE WILL
START TO GET SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK IN AS WE GET HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE BRINGS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
TO THE REGION. THE NAM...EURO...UK...CANADIAN AND SREF SHOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN COMING INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS WAS DRY. SO WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION OPTED TO GO WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND KEEP IT
JUST COOL LIGHT RAIN. LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE
30S NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTHEAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE ON COOLER
TEMPS FOR TODAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT MORNING WINTER
PRECIP AROUND. FOR TONIGHT WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE. FOR SUNDAY
WENT CLOSER TO THE MILDER GMOS GUIDANCE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WENT WITH
A MILDER BLEND OF THE NAM AND MAV GUIDANCE.
AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH LOW POPS DUE TO LIMITED RADAR
COVERAGE APPROACHING FROM LOUISIANA. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND
OF WET NAM AND DRY MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOW END POPS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER WET AND WINTRY LONG
TERM LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE ARKLAMISS. A COOL CLOUDY DAMP DAY WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
PREVAILS...BUT INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE DELTA. THIS COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS WITH THE GFS EVEN COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT TRANSITIONING TO
MORE OF A MIXED BAG FURTHER SOUTH AND MAINLY RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZRA ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS WARMER SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
THIS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
A WINTRY MIX LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH RAIN CONTINUING FURTHER SOUTH. THE MODELS
BEGIN TO WARM THE MID LAYERS LATE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SO
EXPECT A TRANSITION TO MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD FOR THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR WITH LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING FURTHER
SOUTH. BOTH OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...THUS EXPECT A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THERE SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF ENDING THE PRECIP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE THE GFS LINGERS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL DIFFER TO THE DRIER ECMWF AND END THE
LIGHT RAIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A WARMER PERIOD LATER IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT DID CUT BELOW GUIDANCE HIGHS ON TUESDAY. ALSO STUCK
PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID CUT POPS
BELOW GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO END THE LIGHT RAIN./15/
&&
.AVIATION...PRIOR TO DAWN MOSTLY GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WAS NOTED
ACROSS THE REGION. AREA RADARS WERE SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
EXITING THE REGION. EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY COVERAGE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM THE WEST. WILL BRIEFLY MENTION -FZRA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAFS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS BY LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 50 37 61 44 / 15 4 2 20
MERIDIAN 50 35 63 43 / 17 6 1 18
VICKSBURG 50 37 60 43 / 15 3 3 21
HATTIESBURG 54 40 66 46 / 15 8 5 18
NATCHEZ 54 40 61 44 / 15 3 4 21
GREENVILLE 42 34 54 34 / 15 3 1 21
GREENWOOD 44 32 55 37 / 16 4 1 21
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-
019-025>042.
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
LAZ007>009.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-
075.
&&
$$
17/15/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1119 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 806 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2014
Quick update to the forecast to boost POPs generally north of
Interstate 70 after midnight where both RAP and latest NAM show
area of light snow developing ahead of the approaching shortwave
in weak warm advection. Up to a tenth of an inch of liquid could
lead to an inch of snow for locations along a Mexico, Bowling
Green, White Hall line. Outside of this area lighter snow totals
of less than a half of an inch are expected from Columbia to the
northern St. Louis Metro. Will continue to monitor radar trends
and adjust short term grids accordingly.
CVKING
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2014
This afternoon: a pair of well-sheared upper level shortwave
disturbances exist, one to our north and the other to our south in
what is largely a zonal flow regime over the central U.S. The core
of the Arctic airmass continues to dominate our region but is now to
our east over SW Indiana as a 1032mb hi pressure. An extensive area
of clouds once again exists mainly to our W and S, but unlike 24hrs
ago, these clouds will be invading to stay for a while, with many
areas already cloudy now. Temps have been able to get into the
teens today, with areas able to remain sunny the longest likely to
hit 20F before sundown.
The well-sheared shortwave disturbances will remain to our north and
south and have no effect on our wx, exiting to the east by midnight.
However, another stronger shortwave TROF over the west TX panhandle
will shoot east, interacting with the tail end of the first southern
wave, with some decent potential of a period or two of light snow
for late this evening and the early part of the overnight. Yet
another shortwave, currently over the Pac NW, will make an approach
to our northern CWA towards 12z with increasing PoPs for light snow
there.
What is left in-between for much of tonight will be a gradually
lowering deck of clouds in a broadscale, weak WAA regime. We have
had lo chance PoPs in place for sometime now and cannot rule out
areas of light snow developing, especially given how KMCI has had a
couple hours of flurries this afternoon. Will leave these lo PoPs
in place to maintain the mention with localized dustings of snow
possible.
Cloudy skies and gradually increasing S flow are expected to result
in min temps at many locations being hit during the evening with
steady or slightly rising temps overnight. Generally went at or
below the lowest MOS values for IL sites and northeast MO, with more
of a MOS blend elsewhere where the clouds are more firmly
established.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2014
Low-mid level waa is expected on Saturday ahead of a shortwave and
associated weak surface low which will move ewd through IA and nrn
IL. It appears that most of the snow will remain n-ne of our
forecast area ahead and north of the track of the vort max/sfc
low, but there may be a little light snow over nern MO and w cntrl
IL and flurries elsewhere. Could also not rule out a little
drizzle or freezing drizzle as some of the forecast soundings
indicate shallow moisture/cloud cover with a lack of ice crystals
in this low level cloud deck at times. S-swly sfc/low level winds
ahead of the weak surface low and trailing cold front will lead to
warmer temperatures on Saturday, likely rising above the freezing
mark across portions of cntrl and sern MO. The models were a
little slower with the progression of the cold front dropping sewd
through our forecast area Saturday night and Sunday mrng. The
models lag the 850 mb front well behind the sfc cold front with
continued low-mid level waa over the surface cold front Saturday
ngt and Sunday mrng mainly across the srn portion of our forecast
area. The models, particularly the NAM also depict some low-mid
level frontogenesis across our area late Saturday ngt and Sunday.
The models qpf forecast also seem to be hinting at a possible W-E
band of snow moving swd through our forecast area from late
Saturday ngt through Sunday evng. Still a lot of uncertainty in
the precipitation forecast for Saturday ngt through Sunday ngt,
but there may be the potential for some areas to pick up 1-3 inches
of snow. Colder air will filter slowly swd into our forecast area
Sunday and Sunday ngt as a strong 1035-1040 mb surface ridge
builds sewd into our area. Wind chills will drop to around 15 to
20 below zero late Sunday ngt and early Monday mrng across nern MO
and w cntrl IL. There may still be a chance of snow across
portions of sern MO and swrn IL on Monday as weak nw flow
shortwaves continue to drop sewd through our region and a storm
system passes to our south, but most of the precipitation should be
south of the forecast area by Monday as the cold and dry air mass
continues to build s-sewd through MO and IL. The extended forecast
appears dry as the models keep the shortwave energy either well
north or south of our forecast area. As sly surface winds return
later in the work week as the surface high shifts east of the
region we should see warmer temperatures by Wednesday and
Thursday.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2014
Shortwave sliding east through Missouri as of 05z, helping to
generate some light snow. So added mention of mvfr cigs/vsbys for
taf sites along I-70 corridor and just flurries at KUIN. Snow to
taper off by sunrise as shortwave exits region. Then next system
to slide southeast through region during the day with best chances
of snow just northeast of taf sites, so kept mvfr cigs/vsbys at
KUIN and dry elsewhere. Mvfr cigs to persist through rest of
forecast period. As for winds, southeast to south winds veering to
the west then northwest as next weak frontal boundary moves
through Saturday evening.
Specifics for KSTL:
Shortwave sliding east through Missouri as of 05z, helping to
generate some light snow. So added mention of mvfr cigs/vsbys for
metro area by 08z Saturday. Snow to taper off by 12z Saturday as
shortwave exits region. Then next system to slide southeast
through region during the day with best chances of snow just
northeast of metro area, so kept taf dry. Mvfr cigs to persist
through rest of forecast period. As for winds, southeast to veer
to the south by 12z Saturday then to the northwest as next weak
frontal boundary moves through around 10z Sunday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 CST SAT FEB 8 2014
COMPLEX CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROF HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA/DISSIPATED. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY SPREADING CLOUDS
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION. A 130KT JET DIVES INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/UVV/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS SPREAD A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
THE HOPWRF SEEMS TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE SNOW. LOOKS LIKE
SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 22Z-02Z THE
FRONTOGENESIS MAY FOCUS ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WHERE A QUICK INCH
COULD FALL. WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SNOW ENDING IN THE MORNING AND CHANCES RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. LOOKED LIKE THE NORTH MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS...SO TWEAKED HIGHS DOWNWARD...HOWEVER IN
THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY POPS MAIN ISSUE...MAINLY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SOUTH TODAY AND MIN TEMPS BY
MONDAY MORNING OTHER CONCERNS.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW...MOSTLY FLURRIES...HAVE BEEN PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT...RADAR RETURNS HAD INCREASED SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z IN
NERN ZONES. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF COMPACT AND WELL DEFINED VORT
MAX OVER NCNTRL NEBR/SCNTRL SD VICINITY AT 07Z PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z THUS WOULD SUSPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP NRN/ECNTRL
ZONES WOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY EVEN BE
MOSTLY E OF FA BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO CLEARING OUT
LOW CLOUDS PARTS OF WRN/NRN NEBR...BUT WITH TRAILING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...IT WAS HAVING LESS SUCCESS CLEARING LOW CLOUDS OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SHORT RANGE HRRR BASICALLY LEFT THESE LOW CLOUDS
IN ALL DAY SO DELAYED CLEARING FAR SOUTH. ALSO WITH SLOWER
CLEARING PARTS OF THE EAST/SOUTH...LOWERED HIGHS A BIT.
LIKEWISE...RAISED MINS TO AROUND 10 SOUTH FOR TONIGHT AS COLD
ADVECTION ONLY MODEST BEHIND FRONT.
FAST UPPER FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES AND TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z NAM/GFS AND ECMWF IN QPF PLACEMENT CREATE
A OVER-SMOOTHED OR OVER-SIMPLIFIED PRECIP FORECAST POTENTIAL. BUT
OTHER THAN GOING FOR AN ALL-OR-NOTHING BY FOLLOWING ONE
PARTICULAR MODEL...IT PROBABLY IS ABOUT THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
IT. THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS WRN ZONES LATE THIS AFTN PER GFS
AND THEN INCREASED THEM TO CHC CATEGORY ACROSS A WIDE WEST TO
EAST SWATH THIS EVENING PER MODELS BUT ALSO MENTIONED SMALL
CHANCES N TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FARTHER N ECMWF. THEN FOR SUNDAY
INCREASED POPS BACK INTO CHC CATEGORY S USING MORE OF THE ECMWF.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTED SHOWED THAT MODEL COMING IN
DRIER THAN ITS PRIOR RUN AND LOOKING MORE LIKE THE DRY 00Z GFS.
THUS MADE A FEW LAST MINUTE CHANGES...MAINLY LOWERED AFTN POPS
QUICKER.
AIRMASS PRESSING DOWN BEHIND WAVE ON SUNDAY IS PRETTY COLD AND
WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING DOWN THE MO RIVER VALLEY...POTENTIAL
FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL EXISTS. MAIN CAVEAT WOULD BE IF
MID CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER AREA PER 00Z GFS...FOR THAT REASON
KEPT ERN ZONES THE COLDEST BUT BLENDED WRN COUNTIES INTO WARMER
NEIGHBORS NUMBERS WHICH RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS FOR POTENTIAL MODEL SOLUTION FLIP-FLOPPING
WITH ECMWF A GOOD EXAMPLE. YDA THE 00Z RUN SUGGESTED A MIDWEEK
WAVE WOULD PUSH A MODEST COLD FRONT INTO FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY...BUT MOST RECENT 00Z RUN HAD A TRAILING WAVE SPREADING
DECENT WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
COOL ADVECTION WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW GOOD MIXING AND VERY MILD
TEMPS BY AFTN. MEANWHILE...GFS WAS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND MUCH COLDER WITH FORECAST HIGHS.
THUS...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN A BLEND OF PRIOR RUN/PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES AND HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS WHEN MODELS BECOME
MORE IN-LINE AND CONSISTENT. DID LOWER LOWS ACROSS THE EAST TUE AM
SINCE THAT AREA WILL BE LAST TO FEEL OVERNIGHT IMPACTS OF RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PER GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS. AS FOR
PRECIP...ADDED SLIGHT CHC SNOW POPS TO FRIDAY OTHERWISE EXTENDED
WAS DRY. YDAS 12Z ECMWF WAS FAIRLY STRONG WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
ACTING ON A STALLING COLD FRONT GENERATING A LARGE SWATH OF
MODESTLY HIGH QPF ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA. ALTHOUGH 00Z RUN BACKED
MARKEDLY OFF THAT SOLUTION...IT DID KEEP A WEAK WAVE MOVG TOWARD
AREA BY 00Z SAT WITH A SCATTERING OF LIGHT QPF OVER PLAINS WITH
SOME HINT OF SAME PER 00Z GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 CST SAT FEB 8 2014
COMPLEX CLOUD/PRECIPITATION FORECAST TODAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS
EXITING THE AREA AND KOMA AND KLNK ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE MVFR
CIGS AND KOMA HAS HAD A PATCH OF MVFR VSBYS WITH LIGHT SNOW. KLNK
HAS SCATTERED OUT AND KOFK WAS CLEAR. MID CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
ALREADY THICKENING FROM FL060-100 AND HAVE ADVANCED ACROSS
NEBRASKA. BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBYS DUE TO THE LOWERING CLOUDS AND FLURRIES. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW. THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z...WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS. SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
5-10KTS BECOME NORTH AND INCREASE 10-15KTS AFTER 09Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY POPS MAIN ISSUE...MAINLY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SOUTH TODAY AND MIN TEMPS BY
MONDAY MORNING OTHER CONCERNS.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW...MOSTLY FLURRIES...HAVE BEEN PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT...RADAR RETURNS HAD INCREASED SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z IN
NERN ZONES. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF COMPACT AND WELL DEFINED VORT
MAX OVER NCNTRL NEBR/SCNTRL SD VICINITY AT 07Z PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z THUS WOULD SUSPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP NRN/ECNTRL
ZONES WOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY EVEN BE
MOSTLY E OF FA BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO CLEARING OUT
LOW CLOUDS PARTS OF WRN/NRN NEBR...BUT WITH TRAILING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...IT WAS HAVING LESS SUCCESS CLEARING LOW CLOUDS OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SHORT RANGE HRRR BASICALLY LEFT THESE LOW CLOUDS
IN ALL DAY SO DELAYED CLEARING FAR SOUTH. ALSO WITH SLOWER
CLEARING PARTS OF THE EAST/SOUTH...LOWERED HIGHS A BIT.
LIKEWISE...RAISED MINS TO AROUND 10 SOUTH FOR TONIGHT AS COLD
ADVECTION ONLY MODEST BEHIND FRONT.
FAST UPPER FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES AND TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z NAM/GFS AND ECMWF IN QPF PLACEMENT CREATE
A OVER-SMOOTHED OR OVER-SIMPLIFIED PRECIP FORECAST POTENTIAL. BUT
OTHER THAN GOING FOR AN ALL-OR-NOTHING BY FOLLOWING ONE
PARTICULAR MODEL...IT PROBABLY IS ABOUT THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
IT. THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS WRN ZONES LATE THIS AFTN PER GFS
AND THEN INCREASED THEM TO CHC CATEGORY ACROSS A WIDE WEST TO
EAST SWATH THIS EVENING PER MODELS BUT ALSO MENTIONED SMALL
CHANCES N TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FARTHER N ECMWF. THEN FOR SUNDAY
INCREASED POPS BACK INTO CHC CATEGORY S USING MORE OF THE ECMWF.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTED SHOWED THAT MODEL COMING IN
DRIER THAN ITS PRIOR RUN AND LOOKING MORE LIKE THE DRY 00Z GFS.
THUS MADE A FEW LAST MINUTE CHANGES...MAINLY LOWERED AFTN POPS
QUICKER.
AIRMASS PRESSING DOWN BEHIND WAVE ON SUNDAY IS PRETTY COLD AND
WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING DOWN THE MO RIVER VALLEY...POTENTIAL
FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL EXISTS. MAIN CAVEAT WOULD BE IF
MID CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER AREA PER 00Z GFS...FOR THAT REASON
KEPT ERN ZONES THE COLDEST BUT BLENDED WRN COUNTIES INTO WARMER
NEIGHBORS NUMBERS WHICH RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS FOR POTENTIAL MODEL SOLUTION FLIP-FLOPPING
WITH ECMWF A GOOD EXAMPLE. YDA THE 00Z RUN SUGGESTED A MIDWEEK
WAVE WOULD PUSH A MODEST COLD FRONT INTO FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY...BUT MOST RECENT 00Z RUN HAD A TRAILING WAVE SPREADING
DECENT WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
COOL ADVECTION WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW GOOD MIXING AND VERY MILD
TEMPS BY AFTN. MEANWHILE...GFS WAS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND MUCH COLDER WITH FORECAST HIGHS.
THUS...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN A BLEND OF PRIOR RUN/PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES AND HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS WHEN MODELS BECOME
MORE IN-LINE AND CONSISTENT. DID LOWER LOWS ACROSS THE EAST TUE AM
SINCE THAT AREA WILL BE LAST TO FEEL OVERNIGHT IMPACTS OF RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PER GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS. AS FOR
PRECIP...ADDED SLIGHT CHC SNOW POPS TO FRIDAY OTHERWISE EXTENDED
WAS DRY. YDAS 12Z ECMWF WAS FAIRLY STRONG WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
ACTING ON A STALLING COLD FRONT GENERATING A LARGE SWATH OF
MODESTLY HIGH QPF ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA. ALTHOUGH 00Z RUN BACKED
MARKEDLY OFF THAT SOLUTION...IT DID KEEP A WEAK WAVE MOVG TOWARD
AREA BY 00Z SAT WITH A SCATTERING OF LIGHT QPF OVER PLAINS WITH
SOME HINT OF SAME PER 00Z GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS WAS APPROACHING KOFK AT 12Z AND SHOULD
CLEAR BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 22Z. NOT AS CLEAR CUT FOR KOMA AND KLNK WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY TO HOLD UNTIL NEAR 18Z WITH A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH
06Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 06Z-12Z AS HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY POPS MAIN ISSUE...MAINLY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SOUTH TODAY AND MIN TEMPS BY
MONDAY MORNING OTHER CONCERNS.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW...MOSTLY FLURRIES...HAVE BEEN PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT...RADAR RETURNS HAD INCREASED SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z IN
NERN ZONES. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF COMPACT AND WELL DEFINED VORT
MAX OVER NCNTRL NEBR/SCNTRL SD VICINITY AT 07Z PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z THUS WOULD SUSPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP NRN/ECNTRL
ZONES WOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY EVEN BE
MOSTLY E OF FA BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO CLEARING OUT
LOW CLOUDS PARTS OF WRN/NRN NEBR...BUT WITH TRAILING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...IT WAS HAVING LESS SUCCESS CLEARING LOW CLOUDS OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SHORT RANGE HRRR BASICALLY LEFT THESE LOW CLOUDS
IN ALL DAY SO DELAYED CLEARING FAR SOUTH. ALSO WITH SLOWER
CLEARING PARTS OF THE EAST/SOUTH...LOWERED HIGHS A BIT.
LIKEWISE...RAISED MINS TO AROUND 10 SOUTH FOR TONIGHT AS COLD
ADVECTION ONLY MODEST BEHIND FRONT.
FAST UPPER FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES AND TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z NAM/GFS AND ECMWF IN QPF PLACEMENT CREATE
A OVER-SMOOTHED OR OVER-SIMPLIFIED PRECIP FORECAST POTENTIAL. BUT
OTHER THAN GOING FOR AN ALL-OR-NOTHING BY FOLLOWING ONE
PARTICULAR MODEL...IT PROBABLY IS ABOUT THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
IT. THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS WRN ZONES LATE THIS AFTN PER GFS
AND THEN INCREASED THEM TO CHC CATEGORY ACROSS A WIDE WEST TO
EAST SWATH THIS EVENING PER MODELS BUT ALSO MENTIONED SMALL
CHANCES N TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FARTHER N ECMWF. THEN FOR SUNDAY
INCREASED POPS BACK INTO CHC CATEGORY S USING MORE OF THE ECMWF.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTED SHOWED THAT MODEL COMING IN
DRIER THAN ITS PRIOR RUN AND LOOKING MORE LIKE THE DRY 00Z GFS.
THUS MADE A FEW LAST MINUTE CHANGES...MAINLY LOWERED AFTN POPS
QUICKER.
AIRMASS PRESSING DOWN BEHIND WAVE ON SUNDAY IS PRETTY COLD AND
WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING DOWN THE MO RIVER VALLEY...POTENTIAL
FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL EXISTS. MAIN CAVEAT WOULD BE IF
MID CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER AREA PER 00Z GFS...FOR THAT REASON
KEPT ERN ZONES THE COLDEST BUT BLENDED WRN COUNTIES INTO WARMER
NEIGHBORS NUMBERS WHICH RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS FOR POTENTIAL MODEL SOLUTION FLIP-FLOPPING
WITH ECMWF A GOOD EXAMPLE. YDA THE 00Z RUN SUGGESTED A MIDWEEK
WAVE WOULD PUSH A MODEST COLD FRONT INTO FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY...BUT MOST RECENT 00Z RUN HAD A TRAILING WAVE SPREADING
DECENT WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
COOL ADVECTION WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW GOOD MIXING AND VERY MILD
TEMPS BY AFTN. MEANWHILE...GFS WAS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND MUCH COLDER WITH FORECAST HIGHS.
THUS...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN A BLEND OF PRIOR RUN/PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES AND HANDLE ANY ADJUSTMENTS WHEN MODELS BECOME
MORE IN-LINE AND CONSISTENT. DID LOWER LOWS ACROSS THE EAST TUE AM
SINCE THAT AREA WILL BE LAST TO FEEL OVERNIGHT IMPACTS OF RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PER GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS. AS FOR
PRECIP...ADDED SLIGHT CHC SNOW POPS TO FRIDAY OTHERWISE EXTENDED
WAS DRY. YDAS 12Z ECMWF WAS FAIRLY STRONG WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
ACTING ON A STALLING COLD FRONT GENERATING A LARGE SWATH OF
MODESTLY HIGH QPF ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA. ALTHOUGH 00Z RUN BACKED
MARKEDLY OFF THAT SOLUTION...IT DID KEEP A WEAK WAVE MOVG TOWARD
AREA BY 00Z SAT WITH A SCATTERING OF LIGHT QPF OVER PLAINS WITH
SOME HINT OF SAME PER 00Z GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
LIGHT FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AT KOMA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...BUT
HAVE ENDED AT KLNK AND THIS SHOULD BE IT FOR ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO ALL BUT KOMA AND
WE SHOULD SEE THE CIGS LOWER THERE SOON. THE MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON ON SAT BEFORE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW FOR SOME OF THIS TO BE SCATTERED OUT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR CIGS AGAIN STARTING ON SAT EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WE MAY NEED TO INCLUDE SOME -SN AT
KOMA/KOFK AS WELL ON SAT EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
326 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING VALLEY RAINS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
FALL IN THE VALLEY AREAS INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHOWERS BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HOWEVER MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RADAR IS FAIRLY CLEAR AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE FILLING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER
BATCH OF MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
IS SPILLING OVER INTO PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. RAIN WILL
AGAIN BE PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME DEPICTS ENHANCED CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...PRESSING EAST INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA. EMBEDDED
IN THE CLOUDS IS A VORT MAX...WHICH IS ALSO BEING SHOWN IN THE
RUC13...GFS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE FEATURE...700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE 1 TO 2.5 DEGREES C BY LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE THE SNOW LEVEL
FORECAST DIFFICULT...WITH ERRORS OF 500 FEET MAKING A BIG DIFFERENCE.
DECIDED TO ISSUE IMPACT BASED ADVISORIES FOR 5500-6000 FEET ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW...MAYBE 1
TO 2 OR 3 INCHES...BUT IT WILL AFFECT TRAVEL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER PASSES AND SUMMITS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON...HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THOUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE
FREEZING FOG SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BUT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT CLOUDINESS TO PREVENT FORMATION. WILL
PASS ONTO LATER SHIFTS REGARDING THIS LINE OF THINKING.
ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC WILL IMPACT
THE WEST COAST....BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE GRIDS
JUST YET. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED ALLOWING ENERGY AND
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS NORTH
OF THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR WILL BE THE LOCATIONS AFFECTED. IT
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM EVENT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH
OF RIDGE AND TIMING OF TROUGH COMING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA LATE
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VERY MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH PW`S 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AND INTEGRATED WV TRANSPORT 5 TO 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS AIRMASS WILL BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NEVADA...THUS INCREASED POPS ON THURSDAY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES
WITH ZONAL FLOW. FRIDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE STREAM AND
PRECIPITATION NORTH TO NEAR THE STATE BORDER.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BROAD RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ALL SHOW
TROUGH DEEPENING A BIT ACROSS EASTERN PACIFIC AND MOVING OVER NEVADA
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACT TIMING AND HOW
DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE...WHICH IS INFLUENCING THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE AT KEKO AND KELY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS AND VIS
WILL BE MVFR WHEN RAIN OCCURS OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF RAIN BANDS. KTPH SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A 10 TO 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST MONDAY
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST MONDAY
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST MONDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST MONDAY
ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.
&&
$$
86/90/90
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
241 PM PST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING VALLEY RAINS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
MORE MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SHOWERS MAKING
A RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON IS DEPICTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CLOUDS PUSHING EAST
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RADAR IS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA AS MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA. LATEST 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG 250MB JET OF ABOUT 130+ KNOTS JUST
OVER THE NEVADA BORDER OF UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A VORT MAX IN THE FLOW THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
AS POPS LOOK GOOD. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR
THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MODERATE SNOW GOING
ON THERE AT THIS TIME.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST FLOW ON SUNDAY. NAEFS MEAN
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT FORECAST SHOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE REGION. HAVE KEPT POPS AT OR NEAR 100
NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. MOISTURE STARTS TO WANE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASING WEST TO EAST.
HEIGHTS START TO BUILD DURING THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY THEN DIFFERENCES EMERGE WITH EC A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALSO
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AFTER THURSDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW WITH VERY BROAD RIDGE
WILL BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NEVADA WITH PW`S
2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...ALSO THE INTEGRATED WV
TRANSPORT SHOWS 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. I OPTED TO
INCREASE POPS QUITE A BIT AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL AS CLIMO POPS AROUND 40
PERCENT WITH THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL LIFT PRECIPITATION TO NEAR NORTHERN
NEVADA BORDER.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS ON 700MB TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION DURING PERIOD SO DID NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER EXPECT MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN POSSIBLE WITH TROUGH DIGGING A BIT IN EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL DIG AT THIS POINT THUS
INFLUENCING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS AT KEKO KWMC AND KELY LIKELY. KTPH EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.
&&
$$
86/90/90
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1055 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NORTH. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ICE AND RAIN EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SATELLITE IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL
IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES AN UPPER LEVEL OPAQUE DECK OF CLOUDINESS
MOVING LIKE A BAT OUT OF HELL...HAVING JUST ABOUT EXITED THE ILM
CWA TO THE EAST...AND OUT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CURRENT MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE ILM CWA AT THE
MOMENT...AND IT TOO IS TRAVELING AT A DECENT SPEED. WILL HAVE TO
UPDATE SKY CONDITIONS FOR LESS CLOUDS AT THE START. WILL STILL
ADVERTISE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK AFTER THE CFP. NOT EXPECTING
ANY PCPN ACCOMPANYING ITS PASSAGE. OVERALL...LOOKING AT BASICALLY
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITION OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR SFC WIND FIELD
INDICATES THE COLD FRONT TO DROP...NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE ILM
CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HOURS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP LATE TONIGHT...BEST SEEN WITH MODEL 925 MB
TEMP FIELDS. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMBING A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DURING THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...MORE THAN LIKELY WE
WILL SEE MIN TEMPS OCCURRING RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. STILL
ENOUGH OF A CLOUD DECK AND WEAK MIXING AT THE SFC TO KEEP ANY
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO A MINIMUM...AND THUS MINIMIZING ANY
AREAS/WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT
APPEARS TO BE BREWING FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL UNRESOLVED QUESTIONS:
- HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE WILL
END UP...
- WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR WITHIN THE WARM
NOSE ALOFT (3000-7000 FT) ENDS UP...
- WHEN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS TUESDAY...
IF YOU ARE READING THIS YOU HAVE PROBABLY ALREADY REVIEWED THE 12Z
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS HAS THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE ON
THE MASS FIELDS (FRONTAL POSITIONS, HIGHS, LOWS) AND IS THE DEFAULT
MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS STORM. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO VEER LOW LEVEL
WINDS TOO MUCH TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH TOO MUCH WARMING
OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 00Z AND NOW THE 12Z RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE INTERESTING IN THAT THEY ATTEMPT TO BRING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE GULF UP INTO THE COLD AIR WEDGE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE TECHNICALLY BEYOND THE TIME FRAME
COVERED BY THE MON-TUE NIGHT PERIOD...THE ECMWF SOLUTION TYPICALLY
DOES NOT OCCUR AND MAY BE A CLUE THE ECMWF MAY NOT HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE THIS TIME.
AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY DAY MONDAY (HIGHS: 50S TO NEAR 60)
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERCAST SKIES DEVELOPING. COLD DRY AIR PUSHED SOUTH BY 1037 MB
ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER IOWA WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
295-310K SURFACES (A DEEP LAYER FROM 9000-18000 FT AGL) WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z GFS INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE
GENERALLY SLOWER THAN THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIP TUESDAY...BUT 80+% OF THEM STILL SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID 30S UP UNTIL SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION OCCURS TO INDUCE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AT WHICH POINT TEMPS
WILL DIVE DOWN TO FREEZING ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE
TO MARION...WHITEVILLE AND BURGAW.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW...HOWEVER ABOVE-FREEZING AIR ARRIVING AT 850 MB ACROSS
SOUTH CAROLINA AND ALONG THE COAST WILL TRANSITION PRECIP OVER TO
RAIN OR SLEET DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COOL DRY AIR BENEATH
THE WARM NOSE ALOFT. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS BENEATH THE
WARM NOSE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ENSURE A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR TO
OFFSET LATENT HEATING INCURRED FROM SLEET FORMATION...AND THE
ALL-SNOW LINE MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO SNEAK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
BENNETTSVILLE...LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN WITH SNOW + SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS OF WILMINGTON AND MYRTLE BEACH...
YOU ARE VERY CLOSE TO SIGNIFICANT GRADIENTS IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SMALL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES
COULD MAKE TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE OUTCOME FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WED WHILE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO RIDE ACROSS A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE GA COAST WED MORNING WHICH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHARPEN THE WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH UP THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST RIGHT EAST OF OUR
LOCAL AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA ENCOMPASSING THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE RUNNING UP FROM GA INTO NC
THROUGH WED WHILE CONVECTIVE PCP SHOULD DEVELOP IN CONVERGENCE
LOCATED ALONG TROUGH AXIS OFF SHORE. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATER QPF
OFF THE COAST. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPS AND WEATHER TYPE AND TOTAL QPF AND WILL
NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. OVERALL WILL HAVE
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER EVENT HEADING INTO WED WITH MIXED PCP
CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING COOLER WED
THROUGH WED NIGHT.
BY THURS THE LOW WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LINGERING
PCP THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN THAN MIXED AS
AIR MASS WARMS SLIGHTLY BUT PLACES WELL INLAND MAY CONTINUE TO MIX
UNTIL LATE DAY. PLENTY OF DRY AND COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BACK THURS NIGHT AHEAD
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY FRI
SWEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
ON FRI. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL SCOUR OUT ALL CLOUDS
AND PCP LEADING TO A DRIER WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART. SHOULD SEE
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE GFS DOES HINT AT
A SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PRODUCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO PATCHY AREAS FOG OVERNIGHT...AS
WELL AS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR MONDAY EVENING DUE TO LOWERED CIGS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INFILTRATING
INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO INDICATING MARGINAL MVFR FOG AT
KCRE...THUS HAVE KEPT IN FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT IT WILL STICK AROUND FOR A LONG DURATION. OTHERWISE...VFR
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. INTO MONDAY...CLOUD COVER
INCREASES TO BKN/OVC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR LOW CIGS TO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
EVENING. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO AOB 10
KTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY MORNING. PREDOMINATELY IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
THURSDAY EVENING...THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SW TO W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH...WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MONDAY HOURS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS BY OR SEVERAL HRS AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE CAA COMBINED
WITH A TIGHTENING POST CFP SFC PG...WILL YIELD W TO NW WINDS 10-15
KT...BECOMING N-NE AROUND 15 KT LIKELY SEVERAL HRS AFTER DAYBREAK
MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4
FOOTERS POSSIBLE OFF CAPE FEAR. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PRIMARILY BE COMPRISED OF A 2 TO 3 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9
TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. BUOYS WITHIN AND NEARBY THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS...41108 AND 41013 AND 41004... ILLUSTRATE THIS DOMINATING
GROUND SWELL. AS A RESULT...DOMINATING PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9
SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEST WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL PUSH COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO
25-30 KT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND POTENTIALLY
LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL.
OUR WAVE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE BASED HEAVILY ON THE LOCAL SWAN
MODEL...BUT WITH ONE IMPORTANT CHANGE. THE SWAN HAS A KNOWN BIAS
OF BUILDING SEAS TOO QUICKLY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. THEREFORE I
HAVE TRIMMED BACK ITS FORECASTS BY 1-2 FEET MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
NORTHEAST SURGE BEGINS. OTHERWISE ITS OUTPUT LOOKS ACCEPTABLE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST WED INTO THURS ENHANCING THE WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE WILL SEE NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND AND TROUGH/LOW OFF THE COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS TUES WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
TUES THROUGH WED NIGHT NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS. SHOULD REMAIN
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF LOW WHILE WATERS WELL OFF SHORE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LATEST WNA MODEL KEEPS SEAS AS HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS ON
WED AS LOW RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHARPENING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE A SOLID 25 TO 30 KTS AND MAY SEE WINDS
REACHING GALE FORCE OFF SHORE. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURS WITH
N-NW WINDS BACKING TO W-NW BY THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW TO N THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WATERS AND FURTHER OFF SHORE LATE FRI. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THURS NIGHT INTO FRI IN DECREASING OFF SHORE FLOW HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
810 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NORTH. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ICE AND RAIN EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SATELLITE IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL
IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES AN UPPER LEVEL OPAQUE DECK OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE ILM SC CWA...AND PORTIONS OF THE ILM NC CWA. MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE ILM NC CWA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL
EITHER LOOKING AT A PARTLY OR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITION.
LATEST HRRR SFC WIND FIELD INDICATES THE COLD FRONT TO DROP
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY
HOURS. THE POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO BOTH DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING DAYLIGHT MONDAY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP OVERNIGHT...BEST SEEN WITH MODEL
925 MB TEMP FIELDS. MORE THAN LIKELY WILL SEE MIN TEMPS OCCURRING
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS CFP. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH OF A CLOUD DECK AT VARIOUS HEIGHTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL KEEP RAD COOLING TO A MINIMUM AND ALSO ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................................
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED WITH MID LEVELS DRYING OUT
DUE TO POST SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE. COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION HAS PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THINK HIGHS WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THESE
AREAS WITH LOW 60S STILL ON TRACK. CLOSER TO THE COAST THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND THE RESULTING
ONSHORE FLOW HAS HELD LOWS A LITTLE COOLER. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A
LATE DAY INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS SC BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ABOVE
MID 50S FOR THE COAST.
ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS IS NOW SLIDING OFFSHORE SO SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW PULLS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AS THE PERIOD IS ENDING. ALONG THE FRONT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BUT DEEPER MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT ARE DISPLACED NORTH. NOT WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS. WARM
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
FRONT LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION PROFILE DATA DOES SHOW SOME
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ARE LIKELY TO END UP NEAR
CLIMO WHILE SOUTHERN TIER COULD END UP SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT
APPEARS TO BE BREWING FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL UNRESOLVED QUESTIONS:
- HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE WILL
END UP...
- WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR WITHIN THE WARM
NOSE ALOFT (3000-7000 FT) ENDS UP...
- WHEN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS TUESDAY...
IF YOU ARE READING THIS YOU HAVE PROBABLY ALREADY REVIEWED THE 12Z
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS HAS THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE ON
THE MASS FIELDS (FRONTAL POSITIONS, HIGHS, LOWS) AND IS THE DEFAULT
MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS STORM. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO VEER LOW LEVEL
WINDS TOO MUCH TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH TOO MUCH WARMING
OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 00Z AND NOW THE 12Z RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE INTERESTING IN THAT THEY ATTEMPT TO BRING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE GULF UP INTO THE COLD AIR WEDGE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE TECHNICALLY BEYOND THE TIME FRAME
COVERED BY THE MON-TUE NIGHT PERIOD...THE ECMWF SOLUTION TYPICALLY
DOES NOT OCCUR AND MAY BE A CLUE THE ECMWF MAY NOT HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE THIS TIME.
AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY DAY MONDAY (HIGHS: 50S TO NEAR 60)
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERCAST SKIES DEVELOPING. COLD DRY AIR PUSHED SOUTH BY 1037 MB
ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER IOWA WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
295-310K SURFACES (A DEEP LAYER FROM 9000-18000 FT AGL) WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z GFS INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE
GENERALLY SLOWER THAN THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIP TUESDAY...BUT 80+% OF THEM STILL SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID 30S UP UNTIL SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION OCCURS TO INDUCE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AT WHICH POINT TEMPS
WILL DIVE DOWN TO FREEZING ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE
TO MARION...WHITEVILLE AND BURGAW.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW...HOWEVER ABOVE-FREEZING AIR ARRIVING AT 850 MB ACROSS
SOUTH CAROLINA AND ALONG THE COAST WILL TRANSITION PRECIP OVER TO
RAIN OR SLEET DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COOL DRY AIR BENEATH
THE WARM NOSE ALOFT. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS BENEATH THE
WARM NOSE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ENSURE A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR TO
OFFSET LATENT HEATING INCURRED FROM SLEET FORMATION...AND THE
ALL-SNOW LINE MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO SNEAK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
BENNETTSVILLE...LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN WITH SNOW + SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS OF WILMINGTON AND MYRTLE BEACH...
YOU ARE VERY CLOSE TO SIGNIFICANT GRADIENTS IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SMALL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES
COULD MAKE TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE OUTCOME FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WED WHILE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO RIDE ACROSS A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE GA COAST WED MORNING WHICH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHARPEN THE WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH UP THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST RIGHT EAST OF OUR
LOCAL AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA ENCOMPASSING THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE RUNNING UP FROM GA INTO NC
THROUGH WED WHILE CONVECTIVE PCP SHOULD DEVELOP IN CONVERGENCE
LOCATED ALONG TROUGH AXIS OFF SHORE. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATER QPF
OFF THE COAST. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPS AND WEATHER TYPE AND TOTAL QPF AND WILL
NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. OVERALL WILL HAVE
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER EVENT HEADING INTO WED WITH MIXED PCP
CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING COOLER WED
THROUGH WED NIGHT.
BY THURS THE LOW WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LINGERING
PCP THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN THAN MIXED AS
AIR MASS WARMS SLIGHTLY BUT PLACES WELL INLAND MAY CONTINUE TO MIX
UNTIL LATE DAY. PLENTY OF DRY AND COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BACK THURS NIGHT AHEAD
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY FRI
SWEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
ON FRI. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL SCOUR OUT ALL CLOUDS
AND PCP LEADING TO A DRIER WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART. SHOULD SEE
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE GFS DOES HINT AT
A SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PRODUCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO PATCHY AREAS FOG OVERNIGHT...AS
WELL AS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR MONDAY EVENING DUE TO LOWERED CIGS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INFILTRATING
INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO INDICATING MARGINAL MVFR FOG AT
KCRE...THUS HAVE KEPT IN FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT IT WILL STICK AROUND FOR A LONG DURATION. OTHERWISE...VFR
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. INTO MONDAY...CLOUD COVER
INCREASES TO BKN/OVC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR LOW CIGS TO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
EVENING. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO AOB 10
KTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY MORNING. PREDOMINATELY IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
THURSDAY EVENING...THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SW WIND AROUND 10 KT. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH...WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. THE CAA COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING POST CFP SFC PG...WILL
YIELD W TO NW WINDS 10-15 KT...BECOMING N-NE AROUND OR UP TO
SEVERAL HRS AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN
GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OFF CAPE FEAR. THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE COMPRISED OF A 2 TO 3 FOOT
EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. BUOYS WITHIN AND
NEARBY THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...41108 AND 41013 AND 41004...
ILLUSTRATE THIS DOMINATING GROUND SWELL. AS A RESULT...DOMINATING
PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEST WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL PUSH COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO
25-30 KT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND POTENTIALLY
LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL.
OUR WAVE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE BASED HEAVILY ON THE LOCAL SWAN
MODEL...BUT WITH ONE IMPORTANT CHANGE. THE SWAN HAS A KNOWN BIAS
OF BUILDING SEAS TOO QUICKLY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. THEREFORE I
HAVE TRIMMED BACK ITS FORECASTS BY 1-2 FEET MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
NORTHEAST SURGE BEGINS. OTHERWISE ITS OUTPUT LOOKS ACCEPTABLE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST WED INTO THURS ENHANCING THE WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE WILL SEE NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND AND TROUGH/LOW OFF THE COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS TUES WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
TUES THROUGH WED NIGHT NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS. SHOULD REMAIN
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF LOW WHILE WATERS WELL OFF SHORE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LATEST WNA MODEL KEEPS SEAS AS HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS ON
WED AS LOW RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHARPENING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE A SOLID 25 TO 30 KTS AND MAY SEE WINDS
REACHING GALE FORCE OFF SHORE. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURS WITH
N-NW WINDS BACKING TO W-NW BY THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW TO N THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WATERS AND FURTHER OFF SHORE LATE FRI. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THURS NIGHT INTO FRI IN DECREASING OFF SHORE FLOW HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/III
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TODAY... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SAVANNA RIVER VALLEY
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ENE AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY MIDDAY.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SUPPORT WHAT THE HRRR AND THE WRF-
ARW SHOWED YESTERDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRECIP HUGGING THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...OWING TO THE CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING FROM A COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW-MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE. WITH PRECIP CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS...THERE WILL BE NO P-TYPE ISSUES...WITH ALL
RAIN WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER
SAMPSON...WAYNE COUNTIES.
BY 18Z...LOW-LEVEL VEERING AROUND TO WESTERLY WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING SPREADING EASTWARD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 40
TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST SW. -CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (NOW WELL BACK OVER THE ROCKIES)
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOTHER SURGE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WITH THIS APPEARS TO ZIP BY QUICKLY TO OUR NORTH... THERE LOOKS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FOOTHILLS/WRN PIEDMONT FOR A
SMALL CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EXTREME NW AND NRN CWA...
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS... THE HIGH-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD
ENSURE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... IF NOT
OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. DESPITE THE CLOUDS... THE INCREASING SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO DRAW IN SOME MILDER
AIR WITH THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... RESULTING IN WHAT MAY
BE THE WARMEST (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AFTER LOWS OF 29-34... EXPECT HIGHS OF 53-60. AS THE STILL-WEAK BUT
STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH NC... SETTLING
WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS SRN NC... WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW SPEEDS UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP IN
THE 34-38 RANGE. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN CAPTURING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK...NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW (I.E. POLAR VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER NUNAVUT)
SINKING S/SE TO HUDSON BAY AND FAR NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO SUN-WED
WILL ALLOW ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PLUNGE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY...PROGRESSING INTO THE CAROLINAS AS A DRY ARCTIC COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST EAST
OF THE ROCKIES MON-SAT...WITH A SERIES OF SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL LIKELY
EMANATE FROM A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC (JUST SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON)...A MATTER FURTHER COMPLICATED BY A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE POLAR VORTEX BY
EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE
IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO
CENTRAL NC LATE MON/MON NIGHT...AND THAT A MILLER-A TYPE CYCLONE
SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST TUE/WED. HOWEVER...FORECAST SPECIFICS
REMAIN ELUSIVE...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY MORE THAN 1) CENTRAL NC
SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK AND 2)
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST SOME
(IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC BETWEEN TUE MORNING AND WED NIGHT. IN
SUCH A PATTERN...IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO ACCEPT ANY MODEL SOLUTION AT
FACE VALUE 72+ HRS OUT. SIMILARLY...ANY ASSERTION RELATING TO
PTYPE/ACCUM/IMPACT IS SIMPLY BEYOND THE SCIENCE AT THIS TIME...AND
ANY STATEMENT TO THAT END WOULD BE SPECULATION AT BEST. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 6 TO 15KFT WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT A
FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER
FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AREAWIDE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL NOT
CARRY ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS FORECAST...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE DECREASES TENFOLD BEYOND
MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEWD TO SOUTHEAST COAST COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINTRY MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TODAY... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...
TODAY:
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SAVANNA RIVER
VALLEY WILL QUICKLY MOVE ENE AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY MIDDAY.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SUPPORT WHAT THE HRRR AND THE WRF-
ARW SHOWED YESTERDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRECIP HUGGING THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...OWING TO THE CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING FROM A COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW-MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE. WITH PRECIP CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS...THERE WILL BE NO P-TYPE ISSUES...WITH ALL
RAIN WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER
SAMPSON...WAYNE COUNTIES.
BY 18Z...LOW-LEVEL VEERING AROUND TO WESTERLY WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING SPREADING EASTWARD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 40
TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST SW. -CBL
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (NOW
WELL BACK OVER THE ROCKIES) CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING... ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURGE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS APPEARS TO ZIP BY QUICKLY
TO OUR NORTH... THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/WRN PIEDMONT FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
EXTREME NW AND NRN CWA... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS... THE
HIGH-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD ENSURE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY... IF NOT OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS... THE INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ON SUNDAY IS
LIKELY TO DRAW IN SOME MILDER AIR WITH THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL... RESULTING IN WHAT MAY BE THE WARMEST (RELATIVELY SPEAKING)
DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER LOWS OF 29-34... EXPECT HIGHS OF
53-60. AS THE STILL-WEAK BUT STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NC... SETTLING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS SRN NC... WHILE
MID LEVEL FLOW SPEEDS UP AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP IN THE 34-38 RANGE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS SC DURING THE DAY. LACKING MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND DWINDLING ANAFRONTAL PRECIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO
TRACK ON THE BOUNDARY. CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY
FILLED BACK IN BY INCREASING SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. COLD ADVECTION...WHILE NOT VERY STRONG
INITIALLY...WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING TO MUCH MORE THAN THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROVE LOWS
BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
US... WITH A SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO BUILD FROM THE MID WEST TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN
STREAM...AND CURRENTLY POORLY SAMPLED SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN US AS VARIOUS PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM
STREAM ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM WILL BE TO WHAT...IF ANY...DEGREE THESE WAVES PHASE...AND
THE TRACK OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. WPC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LEAN AWAY FROM THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF... AND TOWARD MORE THE SUPPRESSED MILLER
A TYPE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OF THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS.
CONSIDERING THIS...IT SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO APPROACH THE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS TO FOCUS ON HOW THE SYSTEMS MAY EVOLVE: 1) WITH THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND THE FLOW INITIALLY LESS AMPLIFIED...MOISTURE
AND POP SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NORTH. 2) AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BECOMES A PLAYER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...AND
IF PHASING/AMPLIFICATION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OCCURS...THEN
A COASTAL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP AND PTYPE WOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED DISTRIBUTION...WITH A WINTRY MIX MORE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND RAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE EXTENT OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL ALSO BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY HOW
LONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST US HOLDS IN PLACE.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND TO KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
TO INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY MORNING AND TO
EXPAND THE RAIN/SNOW AREA A BIT. HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 40 TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 6 TO 15KFT WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT A
FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER
FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AREAWIDE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL NOT
CARRY ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS FORECAST...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE DECREASES TENFOLD BEYOND
MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEWD TO SOUTHEAST COAST COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINTRY MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1229 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST...REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. A BRIEF WARM-UP IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS HAS BEEN REMARKABLE AT BORING
STRAIGHT DOWN THROUGH ALL THE MID CLOUDS...LETTING SUNSHINE BREAK
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. I HAVE RAISED HIGHS A BIT ACROSS
THE PEE DEE REGION AS A RESULT AND HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS PUSHING ACROSS CAPE FEAR IN
THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. NEXT ORDER OF BUSINESS WILL BE TO WEIGH THE
POTENTIAL THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE CLEARING SKIES
BUT FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 930 AM FOLLOWS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 220
MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THIS LOW IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF
GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IT IS A COLD
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE 06Z NAM APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE THERMAL STRUCTURE
AND WINDS WITHIN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH IT HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION ALOFT WHEN COMPARED TO THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT CHS AND MHX. THE LAST SEVERAL RUC AND HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING
MODERATE TO MAJOR INITIALIZATION ISSUES THAT ARE MAKING THEM
UNUSABLE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. EAST OF I-95 RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A TAPERING OFF TREND EXPECTED BETWEEN
1-3 PM FROM WEST TO EAST. WEST OF I-95 MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH
MORE SPORADIC WITH MAINLY LIGHT SPITS OF RAIN OBSERVED SO FAR. THIS
SHOWS UP IN MY QPF GRIDS WHICH RANGE FROM ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN DARLINGTON AND BENNETTSVILLE TO JUST OVER ONE-THIRD OF
AN INCH ALONG THE COAST.
I HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS DOWNWARD BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE RAIN WILL PERSIST LONGEST...WITH
LESSER ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S IN WILMINGTON...TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE GRAND
STRAND...CONWAY...WHITEVILLE...AND LUMBERTON. ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND
SANTEE RIVER REGION ASSUMING RAIN SHUTS OFF ON SCHEDULE HIGHS COULD
REACH 50-52 BRIEFLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT AS
LONG AS RAIN CONTINUES TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BALANCING ANY WEAK
INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A RAIN-FREE AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY EXPECTED DUE
TO NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. TEMPS GET LOWERED A NOTCH ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS VERY POORLY AGREED
UPON BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SEEMING OUTLYING WRF EVEN
SHOWS A SLOW ENOUGH FROPA FOR A MILD AFTERNOON. FROPA ITSELF WILL BE
TOO MOISTURE STARVED TO LEAD TO ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CROP UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WARM AIR BEGINS
TO OVERRUN THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AS TUESDAY WEARS ON
DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFF THE
COAST. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER THERE IS A SHORT BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN SIMILAR LOCATION. THIS LOOKING
RATHER IMPORTANT AS TEMP PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME
WINTRY PTYPE. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF IN ITS DEPICTION OF THIS SYSTEM
BENEFITING FROM GOMEX MOISTURE WHILE THE ECMWF STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
WET. ALSO FAIRLY NEW IS THE MUCH SLOWER TIMING IN THE GFS SHOWING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NOT UNTIL THURSDAY. WILL STICK MORE IN LINE
WITH PREV FCST DUE TO SUPPORT FROM ECMWF BUT SHOW VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A MODERATING TREND SHOULD
GET UNDERWAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BACK END OF PRECIP WILL EXIT THE REGION AROUND 19-20Z.
IFR CEILINGS LURKING TO THE SOUTH. WILL INTRODUCE AN INTERMITTENT
MVFR CEILING FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IT WILL BE NEAR
IFR. THIS EVENING...SKIES MAY SCATTER FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH ALL
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG IS A POSSIBILITY EVEN
THOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM ENTHUSED BY IT. BEST TIME WILL BE
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME DRYING AFTER THAT. SUNDAY...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A
MID CLOUD CEILING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...WINDS ARE PERHAPS COMING DOWN A BIT FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. SEAS ARE STILL 4-6 FT AT THE TWO DATA BUOYS WITHIN
OUR WATERS...BUT WITHOUT REASONABLY STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON THESE SEAS MAY FLATTEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BUT MAY BE
DROPPED EARLY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. 12Z MODELS ARE IN AND SHOULD
HELP ANSWER THIS QUESTION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 930 AM FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT THAT BISECTS
FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS PRODUCING NE WINDS 15-25 KT ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS CURRENTLY. THE 06Z NAM APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENTLY SITUATION AND IS OUR MODEL OF CHOICE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 1
PM...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING IN
SPEED SLIGHTLY DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS A
NEARLY SOLID SHIELD OF RAIN EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
WHICH WILL TAKE ITS TIME CLEARING THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT
RAIN...OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY...TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 6 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY TO 4 FEET AT THE CAPE FEAR HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WIND BECOMES LIGHT ON SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED OFFSHORE FLOW
DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH A POSSIBLE BACKING FROM NW TO SW.
LATE DAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO SHOULD BRING A 5KT OR SO INC IN SPEEDS.
SEAS TO BUILD BUT ONLY ABOUT A FT AND AWAY FROM SHORE IN THE
COAST-PARALLEL FLOW. SHARP VEER TO N ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. ADD ANOTHER FT TO SEAS BUT STILL FALLING SHY
OF HEADLINES. HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING A
TURN TO THE NE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE TO E WINDS ON TUESDAY TO STRENGTHEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. FLAT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TO HOLD THE GRADIENT CLOSE TO THE COAST AND TIGHTEN
IT JUST ENOUGH TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND AND SEAS
FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WAVE MAY TAKE A SIMILAR
TRACK ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO FAIRLY UNCHANGED MARINE ENVIRONMENT
AND ADVISORY STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
957 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TODAY... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...
TODAY:
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SAVANNA RIVER
VALLEY WILL QUICKLY MOVE ENE AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY MIDDAY.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SUPPORT WHAT THE HRRR AND THE WRF-
ARW SHOWED YESTERDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRECIP HUGGING THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...OWING TO THE CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL FORCING FROM A COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW-MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE. WITH PRECIP CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS...THERE WILL BE NO P-TYPE ISSUES...WITH ALL
RAIN WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER
SAMPSON...WAYNE COUNTIES.
BY 18Z...LOW-LEVEL VEERING AROUND TO WESTERLY WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES AS FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING SPREADING EASTWARD. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 40
TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST SW. -CBL
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (NOW
WELL BACK OVER THE ROCKIES) CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING... ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURGE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS APPEARS TO ZIP BY QUICKLY
TO OUR NORTH... THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/WRN PIEDMONT FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
EXTREME NW AND NRN CWA... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS... THE
HIGH-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD ENSURE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY... IF NOT OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS... THE INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ON SUNDAY IS
LIKELY TO DRAW IN SOME MILDER AIR WITH THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL... RESULTING IN WHAT MAY BE THE WARMEST (RELATIVELY SPEAKING)
DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER LOWS OF 29-34... EXPECT HIGHS OF
53-60. AS THE STILL-WEAK BUT STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NC... SETTLING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS SRN NC... WHILE
MID LEVEL FLOW SPEEDS UP AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP IN THE 34-38 RANGE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS SC DURING THE DAY. LACKING MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND DWINDLING ANAFRONTAL PRECIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO
TRACK ON THE BOUNDARY. CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY
FILLED BACK IN BY INCREASING SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. COLD ADVECTION...WHILE NOT VERY STRONG
INITIALLY...WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING TO MUCH MORE THAN THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROVE LOWS
BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
US... WITH A SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO BUILD FROM THE MID WEST TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN
STREAM...AND CURRENTLY POORLY SAMPLED SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN US AS VARIOUS PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM
STREAM ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM WILL BE TO WHAT...IF ANY...DEGREE THESE WAVES PHASE...AND
THE TRACK OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. WPC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LEAN AWAY FROM THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF... AND TOWARD MORE THE SUPPRESSED MILLER
A TYPE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OF THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS.
CONSIDERING THIS...IT SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO APPROACH THE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS TO FOCUS ON HOW THE SYSTEMS MAY EVOLVE: 1) WITH THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND THE FLOW INITIALLY LESS AMPLIFIED...MOISTURE
AND POP SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NORTH. 2) AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BECOMES A PLAYER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...AND
IF PHASING/AMPLIFICATION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OCCURS...THEN
A COASTAL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP AND PTYPE WOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED DISTRIBUTION...WITH A WINTRY MIX MORE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND RAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE EXTENT OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL ALSO BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY HOW
LONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST US HOLDS IN PLACE.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND TO KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY
TO INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY MORNING AND TO
EXPAND THE RAIN/SNOW AREA A BIT. HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 40 TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...
NOT A HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS MORNING... AS THERE ARE
DIFFERING SIGNALS AS TO THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
THAT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT FORMS OFF
THE COAST. WE DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS
MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES... AND WHILE THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS SUPPORT CIGS REMAINING VFR WITH DRIER
AIR IN THE LOWEST 4000 FT AGL... THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT CIGS
COULD DROP TO MVFR... ALONG WITH POSSIBLE 6SM VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT FAY/INT/GSO... BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 13Z AND 20Z. AFTER 20Z... HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL RETURN AS THE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW BOTH EXIT
THE AREA QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE... BUT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST OR ENE... THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING... FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
BELOW AVERAGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY AT INT/GSO... ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AREAWIDE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW/FRONT WILL BRING A RISK OF MVFR CIGS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1202 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST...REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. A BRIEF WARM-UP IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THIS LOW IS
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
INVERSION IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. IT IS A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE 06Z NAM APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE THERMAL STRUCTURE
AND WINDS WITHIN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH IT HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION ALOFT WHEN COMPARED TO THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT CHS AND MHX. THE LAST SEVERAL RUC AND HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING
MODERATE TO MAJOR INITIALIZATION ISSUES THAT ARE MAKING THEM
UNUSABLE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. EAST OF I-95 RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A TAPERING OFF TREND EXPECTED BETWEEN
1-3 PM FROM WEST TO EAST. WEST OF I-95 MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH
MORE SPORADIC WITH MAINLY LIGHT SPITS OF RAIN OBSERVED SO FAR. THIS
SHOWS UP IN MY QPF GRIDS WHICH RANGE FROM ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN DARLINGTON AND BENNETTSVILLE TO JUST OVER ONE-THIRD OF
AN INCH ALONG THE COAST.
I HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS DOWNWARD BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE RAIN WILL PERSIST LONGEST...WITH
LESSER ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S IN WILMINGTON...TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE GRAND
STRAND...CONWAY...WHITEVILLE...AND LUMBERTON. ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND
SANTEE RIVER REGION ASSUMING RAIN SHUTS OFF ON SCHEDULE HIGHS COULD
REACH 50-52 BRIEFLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT AS
LONG AS RAIN CONTINUES TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BALANCING ANY WEAK
INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A RAIN-FREE AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY EXPECTED DUE
TO NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. TEMPS GET LOWERED A NOTCH ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS VERY POORLY AGREED
UPON BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SEEMING OUTLYING WRF EVEN
SHOWS A SLOW ENOUGH FROPA FOR A MILD AFTERNOON. FROPA ITSELF WILL BE
TOO MOISTURE STARVED TO LEAD TO ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CROP UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WARM AIR BEGINS
TO OVERRUN THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AS TUESDAY WEARS ON
DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFF THE
COAST. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER THERE IS A SHORT BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN SIMILAR LOCATION. THIS LOOKING
RATHER IMPORTANT AS TEMP PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME
WINTRY PTYPE. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF IN ITS DEPICTION OF THIS SYSTEM
BENEFITING FROM GOMEX MOISTURE WHILE THE ECMWF STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
WET. ALSO FAIRLY NEW IS THE MUCH SLOWER TIMING IN THE GFS SHOWING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NOT UNTIL THURSDAY. WILL STICK MORE IN LINE
WITH PREV FCST DUE TO SUPPORT FROM ECMWF BUT SHOW VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A MODERATING TREND SHOULD
GET UNDERWAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BACK END OF PRECIP WILL EXIT THE REGION AROUND 19-20Z.
IFR CEILINGS LURKING TO THE SOUTH. WILL INTRODUCE AN INTERMITTENT
MVFR CEILING FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IT WILL BE NEAR
IFR. THIS EVENING...SKIES MAY SCATTER FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH ALL
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG IS A POSSIBILITY EVEN
THOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM ENTHUSED BY IT. BEST TIME WILL BE
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME DRYING AFTER THAT. SUNDAY...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A
MID CLOUD CEILING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT THAT BISECTS FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS PRODUCING NE WINDS
15-25 KT ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS CURRENTLY. THE 06Z NAM
APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENTLY SITUATION AND IS
OUR MODEL OF CHOICE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 1
PM...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING IN
SPEED SLIGHTLY DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS A
NEARLY SOLID SHIELD OF RAIN EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
WHICH WILL TAKE ITS TIME CLEARING THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT
RAIN...OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY...TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 6 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY TO 4 FEET AT THE CAPE FEAR HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WIND BECOMES LIGHT ON SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED OFFSHORE FLOW
DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH A POSSIBLE BACKING FROM NW TO SW.
LATE DAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO SHOULD BRING A 5KT OR SO INC IN SPEEDS.
SEAS TO BUILD BUT ONLY ABOUT A FT AND AWAY FROM SHORE IN THE
COAST-PARALLEL FLOW. SHARP VEER TO N ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. ADD ANOTHER FT TO SEAS BUT STILL FALLING SHY
OF HEADLINES. HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING A
TURN TO THE NE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE TO E WINDS ON TUESDAY TO STRENGTHEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. FLAT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TO HOLD THE GRADIENT CLOSE TO THE COAST AND TIGHTEN
IT JUST ENOUGH TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND AND SEAS
FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WAVE MAY TAKE A SIMILAR
TRACK ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO FAIRLY UNCHANGED MARINE ENVIRONMENT
AND ADVISORY STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
946 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST...REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. A BRIEF WARM-UP IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THIS LOW IS
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
INVERSION IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. IT IS A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE 06Z NAM APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE THERMAL STRUCTURE
AND WINDS WITHIN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH IT HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION ALOFT WHEN COMPARED TO THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT CHS AND MHX. THE LAST SEVERAL RUC AND HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING
MODERATE TO MAJOR INITIALIZATION ISSUES THAT ARE MAKING THEM
UNUSABLE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. EAST OF I-95 RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A TAPERING OFF TREND EXPECTED BETWEEN
1-3 PM FROM WEST TO EAST. WEST OF I-95 MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH
MORE SPORADIC WITH MAINLY LIGHT SPITS OF RAIN OBSERVED SO FAR. THIS
SHOWS UP IN MY QPF GRIDS WHICH RANGE FROM ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN DARLINGTON AND BENNETTSVILLE TO JUST OVER ONE-THIRD OF
AN INCH ALONG THE COAST.
I HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS DOWNWARD BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS
COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE RAIN WILL PERSIST LONGEST...WITH
LESSER ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S IN WILMINGTON...TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE GRAND
STRAND...CONWAY...WHITEVILLE...AND LUMBERTON. ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND
SANTEE RIVER REGION ASSUMING RAIN SHUTS OFF ON SCHEDULE HIGHS COULD
REACH 50-52 BRIEFLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT AS
LONG AS RAIN CONTINUES TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BALANCING ANY WEAK
INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A RAIN-FREE AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY EXPECTED DUE
TO NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. TEMPS GET LOWERED A NOTCH ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS VERY POORLY AGREED
UPON BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SEEMING OUTLYING WRF EVEN
SHOWS A SLOW ENOUGH FROPA FOR A MILD AFTERNOON. FROPA ITSELF WILL BE
TOO MOISTURE STARVED TO LEAD TO ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CROP UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WARM AIR BEGINS
TO OVERRUN THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AS TUESDAY WEARS ON
DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFF THE
COAST. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER THERE IS A SHORT BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN SIMILAR LOCATION. THIS LOOKING
RATHER IMPORTANT AS TEMP PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME
WINTRY PTYPE. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF IN ITS DEPICTION OF THIS SYSTEM
BENEFITING FROM GOMEX MOISTURE WHILE THE ECMWF STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
WET. ALSO FAIRLY NEW IS THE MUCH SLOWER TIMING IN THE GFS SHOWING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NOT UNTIL THURSDAY. WILL STICK MORE IN LINE
WITH PREV FCST DUE TO SUPPORT FROM ECMWF BUT SHOW VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A MODERATING TREND SHOULD
GET UNDERWAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS...INFLUENCED BY THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF THE JET
STREAM. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT (THREW THE HRRR OUT
ALTOGETHER). THE NAM SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE BEST...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOOK FOR LOWERING CEILINGS
THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. LOOKING FOR MVFR
AFTER 14Z...HOWEVER IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. VISIBILITIES
COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH TWO MILES...BUT SHOULD BE FOUR OR HIGHER THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARD EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT THAT BISECTS FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS PRODUCING NE WINDS
15-25 KT ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS CURRENTLY. THE 06Z NAM
APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENTLY SITUATION AND IS
OUR MODEL OF CHOICE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 1
PM...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING IN
SPEED SLIGHTLY DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS A
NEARLY SOLID SHIELD OF RAIN EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
WHICH WILL TAKE ITS TIME CLEARING THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT
RAIN...OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY...TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 6 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY TO 4 FEET AT THE CAPE FEAR HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WIND BECOMES LIGHT ON SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED OFFSHORE FLOW
DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH A POSSIBLE BACKING FROM NW TO SW.
LATE DAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO SHOULD BRING A 5KT OR SO INC IN SPEEDS.
SEAS TO BUILD BUT ONLY ABOUT A FT AND AWAY FROM SHORE IN THE
COAST-PARALLEL FLOW. SHARP VEER TO N ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. ADD ANOTHER FT TO SEAS BUT STILL FALLING SHY
OF HEADLINES. HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING A
TURN TO THE NE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE TO E WINDS ON TUESDAY TO STRENGTHEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. FLAT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TO HOLD THE GRADIENT CLOSE TO THE COAST AND TIGHTEN
IT JUST ENOUGH TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND AND SEAS
FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WAVE MAY TAKE A SIMILAR
TRACK ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO FAIRLY UNCHANGED MARINE ENVIRONMENT
AND ADVISORY STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...
PASSING WELL EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A BRIEF WARM-UP IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SATURDAY...RAIN WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE NEAR DAYBREAK.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY AND
THEN BEGIN TO TREND QUICKLY LOWER...FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD LASTLY
ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION.
ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ABOUT 275 MILES S OF THE
MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE...PASSING WELL
OFF THE COAST TODAY WHILE REMAINING WEAK. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WAS NE TO N THROUGH 3-4 KFT. ABOVE THAT
LEVEL...THE FLOW WAS SW OR WSW AND STRONG. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE THE MOIST SW
FLOW ATOP THE RESIDUAL CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BACK TO THE N TONIGHT...REINFORCING THE CHILLY AIR AT THE
SURFACE.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY COME TO
AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND HELPS TO
USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THE RAIN EVENT LOOKS
MOST SIGNIFICANT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE PERSISTS THE LONGEST. WE ARE FORECASTING AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH ALONG THE COAST. AS YOU MOVE INLAND...THE MOISTURE RETURN
BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY ANEMIC AND WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN FROM LBT TO FLO WESTWARD. THE RAIN
WILL PERSIST LONGEST AT THE COAST.
THICK CLOUDS TODAY WILL ERODE LATE DAY AND THIS EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO NOSE DOWN THE COAST IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL BE DRY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN. AS THE COLUMN COOLS...A PRONOUNCED SURFACE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE WORST OF THE FOG IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY RESTRICTED DUE TO FOG AND IN FACT...FOG MAY BE DENSE
IN MANY PLACES.
THE THICK CLOUDS AND CHILLY RAINFALL WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MAINLY MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A RAIN-FREE AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY EXPECTED DUE
TO NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. TEMPS GET LOWERED A NOTCH ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS VERY POORLY AGREED
UPON BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SEEMING OUTLYING WRF EVEN
SHOWS A SLOW ENOUGH FROPA FOR A MILD AFTERNOON. FROPA ITSELF WILL BE
TOO MOISTURE STARVED TO LEAD TO ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CROP UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WARM AIR BEGINS
TO OVERRUN THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AS TUESDAY WEARS ON
DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFF THE
COAST. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER THERE IS A SHORT BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN SIMILAR LOCATION. THIS LOOKING
RATHER IMPORTANT AS TEMP PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME
WINTRY PTYPE. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF IN ITS DEPICTION OF THIS SYSTEM
BENEFITING FROM GOMEX MOISTURE WHILE THE ECMWF STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
WET. ALSO FAIRLY NEW IS THE MUCH SLOWER TIMING IN THE GFS SHOWING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NOT UNTIL THURSDAY. WILL STICK MORE IN LINE
WITH PREV FCST DUE TO SUPPORT FROM ECMWF BUT SHOW VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A MODERATING TREND SHOULD
GET UNDERWAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS...INFLUENCED BY THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF THE JET
STREAM. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT (THREW THE HRRR OUT
ALTOGETHER). THE NAM SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE BEST...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOOK FOR LOWERING CEILINGS
THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. LOOKING FOR MVFR
AFTER 14Z...HOWEVER IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. VISIBILITIES
COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH TWO MILES...BUT SHOULD BE FOUR OR HIGHER THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARD EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SATURDAY...WEAK ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE...MOVING NE...WILL
PASS WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD
OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE HIGHEST WINDS THIS
PERIOD ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BACK TO N BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN FROM THE N TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING...REACHING UP TO 4 TO 6 FT...AGAIN
HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
STEADILY SUBSIDE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE N.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WIND BECOMES LIGHT ON SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED OFFSHORE FLOW
DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH A POSSIBLE BACKING FROM NW TO SW.
LATE DAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO SHOULD BRING A 5KT OR SO INC IN SPEEDS.
SEAS TO BUILD BUT ONLY ABOUT A FT AND AWAY FROM SHORE IN THE
COAST-PARALLEL FLOW. SHARP VEER TO N ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. ADD ANOTHER FT TO SEAS BUT STILL FALLING SHY
OF HEADLINES. HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING A
TURN TO THE NE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE TO E WINDS ON TUESDAY TO STRENGTHEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. FLAT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TO HOLD THE GRADIENT CLOSE TO THE COAST AND TIGHTEN
IT JUST ENOUGH TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND AND SEAS
FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WAVE MAY TAKE A SIMILAR
TRACK ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO FAIRLY UNCHANGED MARINE ENVIRONMENT
AND ADVISORY STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND
INTENSIFY AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A BRIEF WARM-UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND GIVE WAY TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ABOUT 275
MILES S OF THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. THE LOW WILL MOVE
NE...PASSING WELL OFF THE COAST TODAY WHILE REMAINING WEAK. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WAS EASTERLY THROUGH 3-4
KFT. ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THE FLOW WAS SW OR WSW AND STRONG. A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR RAIN TODAY
WILL BE THE MOIST SW FLOW ATOP THE RESIDUAL CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE N TONIGHT...REINFORCING THE
CHILLY AIR AT THE SURFACE.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY COME TO
AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND HELPS TO
USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THE RAIN EVENT LOOKS
MOST SIGNIFICANT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE PERSISTS THE LONGEST. WE ARE FORECASTING UP TO A THIRD OF
AN INCH ALONG THE COAST. AS YOU MOVE INLAND...THE MOISTURE RETURN
BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY ANEMIC AND WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN FROM LBT TO FLO WESTWARD. THE RAIN
WILL PERSIST LONGEST AT THE COAST.
THICK CLOUDS TODAY WILL ERODE LATE DAY AND THIS EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO NOSE DOWN THE COAST IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL BE DRY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN. AS THE COLUMN COOLS...A PRONOUNCED SURFACE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE WORST OF THE FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
RESTRICTED DUE TO FOG AND IN FACT...FOG MAY BE DENSE IN MANY PLACES.
THE THICK CLOUDS AND CHILLY RAINFALL WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MAINLY MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A RAIN-FREE AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY EXPECTED DUE
TO NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. TEMPS GET LOWERED A NOTCH ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS VERY POORLY AGREED
UPON BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SEEMING OUTLYING WRF EVEN
SHOWS A SLOW ENOUGH FROPA FOR A MILD AFTERNOON. FROPA ITSELF WILL BE
TOO MOISTURE STARVED TO LEAD TO ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CROP UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WARM AIR BEGINS
TO OVERRUN THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AS TUESDAY WEARS ON
DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFF THE
COAST. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER THERE IS A SHORT BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN SIMILAR LOCATION. THIS LOOKING
RATHER IMPORTANT AS TEMP PROFILES SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME
WINTRY PTYPE. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF IN ITS DEPICTION OF THIS SYSTEM
BENEFITING FROM GOMEX MOISTURE WHILE THE ECMWF STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
WET. ALSO FAIRLY NEW IS THE MUCH SLOWER TIMING IN THE GFS SHOWING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NOT UNTIL THURSDAY. WILL STICK MORE IN LINE
WITH PREV FCST DUE TO SUPPORT FROM ECMWF BUT SHOW VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A MODERATING TREND SHOULD
GET UNDERWAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS...INFLUENCED BY THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF THE JET
STREAM. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT (THREW THE HRRR OUT
ALTOGETHER). THE NAM SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE BEST...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOOK FOR LOWERING CEILINGS
THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. LOOKING FOR MVFR
AFTER 14Z...HOWEVER IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. VISIBILITIES
COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH TWO MILES...BUT SHOULD BE FOUR OR HIGHER THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARD EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE...MOVING NE...WILL PASS WELL
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE HIGHEST WINDS THIS
PERIOD ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. ENE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BACK TO N BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN FROM THE N TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING...REACHING UP TO 4 TO 6 FT...AGAIN
HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
STEADILY SUBSIDE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE N.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WIND BECOMES LIGHT ON SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED OFFSHORE FLOW
DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH A POSSIBLE BACKING FROM NW TO SW.
LATE DAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO SHOULD BRING A 5KT OR SO INC IN SPEEDS.
SEAS TO BUILD BUT ONLY ABOUT A FT AND AWAY FROM SHORE IN THE
COAST-PARALLEL FLOW. SHARP VEER TO N ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. ADD ANOTHER FT TO SEAS BUT STILL FALLING SHY
OF HEADLINES. HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING A
TURN TO THE NE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE TO E WINDS ON TUESDAY TO STRENGTHEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. FLAT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TO HOLD THE GRADIENT CLOSE TO THE COAST AND TIGHTEN
IT JUST ENOUGH TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND AND SEAS
FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WAVE MAY TAKE A SIMILAR
TRACK ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO FAIRLY UNCHANGED MARINE ENVIRONMENT
AND ADVISORY STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1231 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND INTENSIFY AS
IT ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BRIEF WARM-UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND GIVE WAY TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON SAT
IMAGERY...HAVE UPDATED SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF BECOMING COMPLETELY
OVC DURING THE PRE-DAWN SAT HOURS. FAST EASTWARD MOVING MID-LEVEL
SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROF...WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PAN HANDLE BY
DAYBREAK SAT. PLENTY OF ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE AVBL AS
OVERRUNNING CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS AND PUSHES OVERHEAD MAINLY IN
EARNEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES STRATIFORM
RAINS TO BREAKOUT AND/OR PUSH INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE
PRE-DAWN SAT HOURS. BY DAYBREAK...THE MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL OF
THE ILM CWA...WILL HAVE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE STRATIFORM TYPE
RAINS FALLING/OCCURRING. LATEST WINTER TYPE PCPN PARAMETERS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE TO AN ALL LIQUID RAIN EVENT...IE. NO P-TYPE ISSUES FOR
THE ILM CWA. RE-ADJUSTED TONIGHTS LOWS TO OCCUR AROUND OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY STEADY TEMPS THERE-AFTER AS CLDS AND
PCPN OVERTAKE THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY
STALLED OFF THE FL EAST COAST FRI NIGHT THEN TRACK NORTHEAST JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL PASS OFF THE
COAST IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD RAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AS THE PERIOD BEINGS WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW DEEPENS TAPPING INTO ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AND LIFT
STRONGEST...PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BE QUICK TO HUSTLE THE LOW NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SAT AND BY
EVENING IT WILL BE WELL EAST OF HATTERAS WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION. COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...RAIN...AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
CLIMO SAT. MANY AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKLY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE
REGION SO THERE WILL BE NO COLD ADVECTION SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS INTO SUN...KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY BUT MOISTURE IS
SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. AFOREMENTIONED
LACK OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO SAT
NIGHT.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSES OVERHEAD SUN MORNING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE AND MIXING HELPING TO ERODE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT BUT THE BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE REGION AS THE PERIOD ENDS. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL LACK
PRECIP IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY BUT WITH A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ZONAL WITH A DECENT W-SW COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THEREFORE THE
SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REINFORCE THE WEDGE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP DEVELOPING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SLOWLY INCREASES BY THE END
OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND FRONT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A DRY DAY FOR MONDAY...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUDS.
BY EARLY TUES ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LEADING
TO CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHC OF RAIN. BY LATE TUES INTO WED A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE
WEDGE PATTERN SHARPENING THE COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDING UP
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE BEST LIFT WILL COME AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CLOUDS AND PCP OVER THE AREA FROM TUES
THROUGH EARLY THURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOL AIR IN PLACE TO
PRODUCE SOME MIXED PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPS REMAIN BORDERLINE.
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PCP ON THURS BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL
FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND TO PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF PCP BY THURS NIGHT.
CLOUDS MAY NOT HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CLEAR BEFORE THIS NEXT SYSTEM
COMES BUT BY FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF SHORE
ALLOWING A DEEP DRY AND COOL NW FLOW TO DEVELOP SCOURING OUT ALL
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AFTER SUNRISE
DUE TO LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE THE
INFILTRATION OF HIGH CLOUDS. ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE BECOMING BKN WITH MID CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING IN AS WELL
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SET TO MOVE UP THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO
AOB 10 KT. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DEVELOPING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ATTM WOULD ANTICIPATE
RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE HOURS
AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE EVE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...
WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
MAINLAND LATE TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO MODIFY DURING THE PRE-DAWN SAT HOURS...WITH LIGHT NE
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT THEIR LOWEST THIS
EVENING...WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DURING THE PRE-DAWN SAT HRS IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
LOOKING AT SIG SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY
DAYBREAK SAT...WITH SOME 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OFF CAPE FEAR AND/OR
OFF THE MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RUN JUST SHY OF
5.0 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
DEVELOPING LOW PASSES JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL PUSH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
END UP JUST SHORT OF SCA THINK SEAS WILL EXCEED 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS
AND WILL RAISE A 12 HOUR SCA FOR ALL ZONES. TIME DURATION IS LIKELY
A LITTLE LONG ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ADVISORY BUT IT CAN BE
CANCELLED EARLY IF NEED BE.
ONCE THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEPARTS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT THE
GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK AND ILL DEFINED. BY MIDNIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE UNDER 10 KT AND SEAS DROP TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SUN MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST MAINTAINS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO SUN
BEFORE WINDS FLOP TO SOUTHERLY WITH WEAK RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUN
INCREASES SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 KT. FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT. IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION...ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WINDS
WILL HAVE MORE OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT. INCREASE IN SPEEDS SUN
PUSHES 2 TO 3 FT SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH EARLY MON WILL
PRODUCE A SHARP SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MID WEEK AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDES ACROSS THE GULF COAST ENHANCING THE COASTAL TROUGH
UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS. WILL SEE NORTHEAST FLOW
SHARPENING UP BY TUES NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND TROUGH OFF THE COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS INTO MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUES THROUGH WED
NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS. WINDS IN LOCAL WATERS MAY REMAIN
NORTHEAST BUT THE SHARPENING TROUGH MAY BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO
THE OUTER WATERS ON WED. THE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY
EARLY THURS LEAVING A LIGHTER NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND. SEAS OF 2-3
FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON MONDAY WILL RISE STEADILY...BECOMING 4-6
FT THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WED BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING BY EARLY
THURS AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ON TRACK. SKY COVER THE
TRICKIEST TO FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FAR WEST AND NORTH...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS NORTH LATER ON TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS SOUTHEAST...AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL WAVES. ALSO
ADDED FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST BASED ON BOWMAN RADAR AND BAKER MT
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WILL
GENERATE MAINLY AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF ISOLATED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG TO BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY.
MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO TWEAK DAYTIME HIGHS
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INCREASE
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON LATEST 12Z MODELS
NOW COMING INTO OUR SYSTEMS. FEEL THE INCREASED SKY COVER TONIGHT
WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST FROM
DROPPING AS EARLIER THOUGHT. STILL ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED
LOWS WEST AND NORTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS STILL FORECAST.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT FOR SUNDAY...BUT
STILL COLD WITH HIGHS 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE BUMPS UP HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES COULD BE REALIZED.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL THE LOWER GUIDANCE/PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL LIKELY VERIFY. THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I THINK THE
THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN NORTH MOST OF THE DAY. FOR THIS
REASON I WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE THE 07 UTC RAP BRINGS IN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH.SNOW FLURRIES AND EVEN A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AREN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT H5 WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD...AND COULD SEE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST WHERE WIND CHILLS VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S
BELOW ZERO.
WEST / NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION / SNOW. IT
APPEARS THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS / ECMWF THAT A
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD BE THE STRONGEST OF THE
CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY AS THE EXTENDED
PROGRESSES WITH PERIODS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WAVES. GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE
ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE SOME OF THE POTENTIAL TIMING DIFFICULTIES OF THE WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND LOWER CEILINGS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THOUGH THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN...EACH TAF SITE MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY DAYTIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AC/NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1009 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WILL
GENERATE MAINLY AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF ISOLATED
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG TO BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY.
MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO TWEAK DAYTIME HIGHS
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...AND INCREASE
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON LATEST 12Z MODELS
NOW COMING INTO OUR SYSTEMS. FEEL THE INCREASED SKY COVER TONIGHT
WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST FROM
DROPPING AS EARLIER THOUGHT. STILL ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED
LOWS WEST AND NORTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS STILL FORECAST.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT FOR SUNDAY...BUT
STILL COLD WITH HIGHS 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE BUMPS UP HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES COULD BE REALIZED.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL THE LOWER GUIDANCE/PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL LIKELY VERIFY. THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I THINK THE
THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN NORTH MOST OF THE DAY. FOR THIS
REASON I WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE THE 07 UTC RAP BRINGS IN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH.SNOW FLURRIES AND EVEN A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AREN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT H5 WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD...AND COULD SEE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST WHERE WIND CHILLS VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S
BELOW ZERO.
WEST / NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION / SNOW. IT
APPEARS THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS / ECMWF THAT A
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD BE THE STRONGEST OF THE
CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY AS THE EXTENDED
PROGRESSES WITH PERIODS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WAVES. GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE
ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE SOME OF THE POTENTIAL TIMING DIFFICULTIES OF THE WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS IN EASTERN MONTANA HAVE ONLY MADE SLOW PROGRESS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY A CEILING AROUND 3KFT
AT KISN AND KMOT STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT KEEP THE OTHER
TERMINALS VFR. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
650 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE BUMPS UP HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES COULD BE REALIZED.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL THE LOWER GUIDANCE/PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL LIKELY VERIFY. THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I THINK THE
THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN NORTH MOST OF THE DAY. FOR THIS
REASON I WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE THE 07 UTC RAP BRINGS IN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH.SNOW FLURRIES AND EVEN A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AREN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT H5 WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD...AND COULD SEE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST WHERE WIND CHILLS VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S
BELOW ZERO.
WEST / NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION / SNOW. IT
APPEARS THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS / ECMWF THAT A
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD BE THE STRONGEST OF THE
CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY AS THE EXTENDED
PROGRESSES WITH PERIODS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WAVES. GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE
ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE SOME OF THE POTENTIAL TIMING DIFFICULTIES OF THE WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS IN EASTERN MONTANA HAVE ONLY MADE SLOW PROGRESS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY A CEILING AROUND 3KFT
AT KISN AND KMOT STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT KEEP THE OTHER
TERMINALS VFR. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
350 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE BUMPS UP HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES COULD BE REALIZED.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL THE LOWER GUIDANCE/PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL LIKELY VERIFY. THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I THINK THE
THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN NORTH MOST OF THE DAY. FOR THIS
REASON I WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE THE 07 UTC RAP BRINGS IN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH.SNOW FLURRIES AND EVEN A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AREN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT H5 WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD...AND COULD SEE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST WHERE WIND CHILLS VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S
BELOW ZERO.
WEST / NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION / SNOW. IT
APPEARS THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS / ECMWF THAT A
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD BE THE STRONGEST OF THE
CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY AS THE EXTENDED
PROGRESSES WITH PERIODS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WAVES. GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE
ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE SOME OF THE POTENTIAL TIMING DIFFICULTIES OF THE WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE
THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD BR...FG...AND VERY LOW CEILINGS COVER MOST OF OK AND
SOME PARTS OF N TX AT NOON TODAY. CLEARING FROM W AND SW TX HAS
BEEN EXTREMELY SLOW IN ITS PROGRESS TOWARD THE E AND N. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT KGAG AND KSPS MAY SEE TEMPORARY CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT ALL SITES WILL LIKELY GO
BACK TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
FILL BACK IN TO AREAS THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE S ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...BRINGING GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS... FZFG CONTINUES...
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE MORNING AS 2 TO 3SM FZFG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON...
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MOIST...SERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE
REGION... THE MOST SEVERE FZFG OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WRN N TX ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TX
ESCARPMENT. KOUN 12Z SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY SHALLOW COLD LAYER AT
THE SURFACE WITH A STEEP INVERSION STARTING NEAR 920MB. LATEST
SOLUTION FROM THE RAP IS SLOW TO WARM THE SFC/CUT AWAY AT THE
INVERSION... PER BUFKIT... WHICH COLLABORATES WELL WITH CURRENT
THOUGHTS. MORNING RUNS OF THE H-TRIP ARE ON BOARD AS WELL...
KEEPING PRETTY MUCH ALL OF OK/WRN N TX SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH CLOUDS HANGING ON... THIS IS GOING TO WREAK
HAVOC WITH TEMPS TODAY. CURRENTLY BROUGHT DOWN HIGHS QUITE A FEW
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN OK.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE NUISANCE FZFG AND TEMPS... MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEED.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
AVIATION...
LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE BY MID-DAY AND DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. FOG WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITY FROM
AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE THIS MORNING. AFTER 090600 FOG IS LIKELY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE 091200.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT FOG SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING, BUT THE SUN WILL
BE SLOW IN COMING UNTIL AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE
ABOVE THOSE OF THE LAST WEEK FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TO MORE THAN 50 IN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS.
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY BRINGS A COLDER AIRMASS- BUT NOT AS COLD AS
THE ONE EARLIER THIS WEEK. THROUGH TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE DAYTIME. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST, WILL APPROACH OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 WHERE GREATER MOISTURE
WILL BE. MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY COULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WAVE, THE MEAN FLOW GAINS MUCH MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NORMALS AND EVEN ABOVE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 25 32 19 / 0 0 10 20
HOBART OK 37 26 30 19 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 42 30 40 22 / 0 10 10 0
GAGE OK 34 16 23 13 / 0 0 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 34 20 26 15 / 0 0 20 30
DURANT OK 43 25 43 28 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS... FZFG CONTINUES...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE MORNING AS 2 TO 3SM FZFG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON...
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MOIST...SERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE
REGION... THE MOST SEVERE FZFG OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WRN N TX ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TX
ESCARPMENT. KOUN 12Z SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY SHALLOW COLD LAYER AT
THE SURFACE WITH A STEEP INVERSION STARTING NEAR 920MB. LATEST
SOLUTION FROM THE RAP IS SLOW TO WARM THE SFC/CUT AWAY AT THE
INVERSION... PER BUFKIT... WHICH COLLABORATES WELL WITH CURRENT
THOUGHTS. MORNING RUNS OF THE H-TRIP ARE ON BOARD AS WELL...
KEEPING PRETTY MUCH ALL OF OK/WRN N TX SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH CLOUDS HANGING ON... THIS IS GOING TO WREAK
HAVOC WITH TEMPS TODAY. CURRENTLY BROUGHT DOWN HIGHS QUITE A FEW
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN OK.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE NUISANCE FZFG AND TEMPS... MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEED.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
AVIATION...
LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE BY MID-DAY AND DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. FOG WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITY FROM
AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE THIS MORNING. AFTER 090600 FOG IS LIKELY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE 091200.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT FOG SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING, BUT THE SUN WILL
BE SLOW IN COMING UNTIL AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE
ABOVE THOSE OF THE LAST WEEK FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TO MORE THAN 50 IN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS.
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY BRINGS A COLDER AIRMASS- BUT NOT AS COLD AS
THE ONE EARLIER THIS WEEK. THROUGH TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE DAYTIME. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST, WILL APPROACH OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 WHERE GREATER MOISTURE
WILL BE. MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY COULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WAVE, THE MEAN FLOW GAINS MUCH MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NORMALS AND EVEN ABOVE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 25 32 19 / 0 0 10 20
HOBART OK 37 26 30 19 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 42 30 40 22 / 0 10 10 0
GAGE OK 34 16 23 13 / 0 0 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 34 20 26 15 / 0 0 20 30
DURANT OK 43 25 43 28 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
1020 AM PST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE THIRD SYSTEM IN A ONE-TWO-THREE PUNCH OF WINTRY
WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WILL PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTIONS
BEING THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF LANE COUNTY. SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MAJOR ICE STORM FOR SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS
SALEM SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. ENOUGH COLD AIR
REMAINS ENTRENCHED FOR MOST PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW NORTH OF A
SALEM TO TILLAMOOK LINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING
WITH JUST SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY. GRADUALLY
MILDER AIR MOVES IN BY MONDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE MORE POTENTIAL ICING
IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE. ONSHORE FLOW AND A CONSOLIDATED PACIFIC JET
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.UPDATE...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH WITH RATES OF 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
THE REST OF THE MORNING. SEE NOWPQR. HAVE ENDED THE WINTER WX
ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR FZDZ. HEAVY SNOW AGAIN STARTING A
BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. ROADS WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS VERY QUICKLY
FROM THIS POINT FORWARD.
ALSO CHANGED THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND THE NORTH OREGON CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. TO AN ICE STORM WARNING. WHILE THERE
WILL BE CONTINUED SNOW TODAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL DOMINATE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SALEM SOUTHWARD. FIGURED THIS WAS THE
HIGHER THREAT EVEN THOUGH POINTS NORTH MAY JUST MIX WITH FZRA LATER
TODAY. THIS IS ALL SEMANTICS AND WAS IN THE WORDING OF THE WSW
EARLIER...BUT WANTED TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA ESPECIALLY AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL STILL
MENTION THE INITIAL SNOW IN THE PRODUCT.
REST OF THE UPDATE UNCHANGED...THE NAM BUFR AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WILL
LIKELY TURN BACK TO FZRA AFTER SNOW THIS MORNING. 12Z SLE SOUNDING
SHOWS THE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND 900 MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 33F
AT THIS LEVEL. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ONLY GETS WARMER THROUGH THE
DAY. IF YOU FOLLOW RAP 925 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE A REASONABLE
GRASP ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM NOSE...THIS PUSHES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL VALLEY AND EVEN NORTH THROUGH THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO. IF YOU BELIEVE MOS AND
RAP...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL VALLEY. WITH A NORTH GRADIENT FEEDING THE LOWER LEVEL COLD
AIR FEEL THIS ISOVERDONE.
AM CONSIDERING CONVERTING THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND THE NORTH OREGON
FOOTHILLS TO AN ICE STORM WARNING. THERE IS A PRETTY HEAVY BAND OF
SNOWFALL THAT THE MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SETTING UP OVER
PORTLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS KEEP
THE PORTLAND AREA ALL SNOW OR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY REASONABLE THAT THE SOUTH METRO AREA COULD GET IN ON THE
FREEZING RAIN. THIS COULD MAKE FOR A DISASTROUS SITUATION FOR THE
METRO AREA. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED
THIS FAR NORTH INITIALLY DUE TO SNOW AND SLEET WITH THE REINFORCING
FEED OF COLD AIR COMING.
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY BUT CONFIRMS FEELINGS IN THE
LAST SENTENCE IS THE WELL PERFORMING ECMWF OF THE LAST FEW DAYS KEEP
THINGS ALL SNOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT NORTH OF SALEM AND
WITH THE COLD AIR GETTING REPLENISHED AS THE OFFSHORE LOW ARRIVES AND
STRENGTHENS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH THE WARM NOSE NOT
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTH UNTIL AFTER HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION PUSHES
THROUGH...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SLEET FREEZING RAIN MIX TOMORROW
MORNING IN LIGHTER PRECIPITATION. .
THOSE OF YOU CONSIDERING TRAVEL TODAY SHOULD RECONSIDER IF IT ALL
POSSIBLE ...AS THERE IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANT ICING AS FAR NORTH AS
ALBANY...AND IT IS LIKELY THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
EITHER WAY FOR POINTS NORTH THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLUG OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EITHER WAY...MOST MODELS SUGGEST A MIX OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY. STILL ROADS WILL BE MESSY. POINTS FARTHER SOUTH WILL BEGIN
TO FINALLY THAW AND REMAIN RAIN.
/KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOCUSES ON THE SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THIS WILL BE THE
BIG SHOW IN TOWN. A MAJOR RE-SHUFFLING OF WATCHES WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES WAS DONE FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE...HENCE THE VERY LATE
DISCUSSION ONCE AGAIN. APOLOGIES FOR THAT.
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A HIGH-IMPACT...MULTI FACETED
WINTER STORM WHICH WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST OREGON AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WITH HEAVY SNOW...ICE...AND EVEN WIND NEAR THE
COLUMBIA GORGE. AREAS FROM THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO NORTHWARD
WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW...AND IT WILL BE HEAVY FOR A PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS FROM SALEM SOUTHWARD WILL SEE PRIMARILY
FREEZING RAIN WITH MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FAIRLY RAPIDLY...SO THE LINN/LANE COUNTY CASCADES MAY SEE A QUICK
CHANGE TO RAIN AND VALLEY FREEZING RAIN AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW.
CASCADES NORTH OF SANTIAM PASS WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW...WITH UP TO A FOOT NEAR MOUNT HOOD.
THIS DISCUSSION WOULD GROW AS LARGE AS A NOVEL IF I WERE TO EXPLAIN
ALL THE METEOROLOGICAL REASONING BEHIND THESE DECISIONS. BELOW I WILL
FOCUS ON THE RATIONALE BEHIND WHAT WE CONSIDER THE MOST DANGEROUS
THREATS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE MOST CONCERNING ISSUE WITH THIS
INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BE THE HEAVY ICE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWLANDS...
PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
42N/132W...HEADING E-NE TOWARD THE OREGON COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONGER THAN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW
TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WARM ADVECTION OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN IT WAS WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO
SYSTEMS...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 950-800 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH A WARM NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR WELL
NORTH INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND IN FACT THAT IS ALREADY
HAPPENING WITH -FZRA BEING REPORTED AT EUGENE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
DECENT SUBTROPICAL TAP THAT EXTENDS SW TOWARD HAWAII...WHICH WILL
FEED PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR.
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IS BEING LOCKED IN BY INCREASING EASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A DEEP COLD POOL EAST OF THE CASCADES. AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW...NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
ALSO INCREASING UP THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE ENTIRE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BELOW FREEZING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EVENT...WHILE
LOCALLY 0.35-0.75 INCH OF QPF FALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON.
WITH SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME HEAVIER
BANDS WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO QPF LOCALLY OVER ONE INCH. 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET...06Z NAM/GFS...ALL SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS OCCURRING.
SOUTH OF SALEM...WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALMOST ALL FREEZING
RAIN...NEARLY ALL OF THIS AMOUNT WILL FREEZE ON TREES... POWER
LINES...AND ROADS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. AS
A RESULT...WE OPTED FOR AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN VALLEYS
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. AREAS SALEM SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER
FROM.
FARTHER NORTH...IN THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO...THE WARM NOSE WILL
HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WORKING ITS WAY TO THE COLUMN. THIS DUE TO
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD POOL EAST OF THE CASCADES...FILTERING COLD AIR
WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES. THE RELATIVELY LOWER TERRAIN
BETWEEN MOUNT ADAMS AND MOUNT HOOD WILL ALLOW THIS COLD AIR TO PUSH
FREELY WESTWARD INTO THE PDX/VUO METRO. IF THERE IS ANY QUESTION AS
TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS COLD AIR...IT IS ONLY 10 DEGREES AT
GOVERNMENT CAMP. BASED ON REPORTS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST IT APPEARS
THIS COLD POOL IS ABOUT 5000 FEET DEEP.
SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL BE STUBBORN IN THE PDX/VUO METRO...EXPECT
MOST PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. BASED ON THE QPF EXPECT GENERAL
4-8 INCH TOTALS WHERE PCPN REMAINS SNOW...LIGHTER AMOUNTS NORTH OF
CLARK COUNTY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED CSI BANDING SETS
UP...SOME SPOTS IN THE METRO AREA COULD SEE A FOOT OF NEW SNOW. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE WESTERN WASHINGTON AND YAMHILL COUNTY
WHERE EASTERLY FLOW OFTEN GETS A LITTLE OROGRAPHIC BOOST.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. IF THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL AND
ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION DOES NOT REMAIN AS DEEP THROUGH THE
CASCADES...THERE IS A CHANCE ENOUGH OF THE COLUMN MAY WARM ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO SLEET IN THE PDX/VUO METRO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WOULD CONSIDERABLY CUT DOWN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN THE NORTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WILL BE IN CLACKAMAS COUNTY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE PDX/VUO METRO AREA.
ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOW OFFSHORE COULD CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...PUSHING UP THE COAST AND DRAGGING WITH IT MORE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IF IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WOULD CHANGE
EUGENE TO RAIN EARLY AND CONSIDERABLY CUT BACK ON THEIR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY PUTTING THE PDX/VUO METRO IN THE
CROSSHAIRS FOR A MAJOR ICE EVENT. THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY...AS THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS NEAR THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...AND THIS
IS OFTEN WHERE LOWS TEND TO TRACK. MORE LIKELY THE LOW WILL APPROACH
THE COAST AND OCCLUDE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG COLD POOL
ENTRENCHED OVER NW OREGON.
THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES EARLY SUN MORNING AND
PRECIP WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS THEREAFTER. IT IS LIKELY TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE JUST A BIT SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY ENOUGH TO START THAWING
OUT SOME AREAS THAT GET HIT HARD BY SNOW AND ICE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BUCKLE YOUR SEAT BELTS FOLKS...ITS GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING RIDE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAGLE
.MEDIUM AND LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST ALL AREAS WILL
BE MILDER BY MON AM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...WILL
STILL HAVE COLD AIR BLEEDING INTO THE GORGE. WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...MILDER AIR WILL FINALLY REACH THOSE
AREAS...WITH GRADUAL WARM UP.
MODELS ALL INDICATE A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING RAIN...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER CASCADES. SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS REGION TUE NIGHT/WED WITH
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT ON THU. THESE WILL BRING FAIRLY DECENT ROUND OF
RAIN. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...THEN SETTLE AROUND 3500
TO 4500 FT. LOOKS GOOD FOR BUILDING CASCADES SNOWPACK. ROCKEY.
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY
MVFR TO LOW-END VFR AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
INTO IFR THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION AFTER 18Z...STARTING IN THE
SOUTH AND SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE A CHALLENGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -FZRA IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS THROUGH 06Z
SUN. NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SW WA LIKELY TO BE IFR IN SNOW
THROUGH 06Z SUN. PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR. ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AND
ICING WILL BECOME MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT ISSUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AS OF 16Z BUT WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER.
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL AROUND 18Z.
CONDITIONS TO DROP INTO IFR IN SNOW. PRECIP TO REMAIN AS SNOW
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z SUN...AND POSSIBLY AS LONG AS 06Z.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING
TO -FZRA. LOOKS LIKE MORE -FZRA AND SLEET THREAT FOR THE TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z SUN...BUT FORTUNATELY PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING. IFR TO
LOW-END MVFR TO PREVAIL AFTER 06Z SUN. WEISHAAR
&&
.MARINE...EAST OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES THIS MORNING. STILL GETTING
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AT BUOY 029. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN THE NORTH WATERS
THROUGH 22Z. GFS WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE 20-25 KT S-SW WIND ACROSS
THE FAR SRN WATERS LATE TODAY. NAM AND ECMWF MAINTAIN EAST WIND
AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS
SUN NIGHT AND MON. A STRONGER SYSTEM TUE NIGHT AND WED COULD
PRODUCE GALES.
SEAS RUNNING A COUPLE FEET HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. NRN
BUOYS AT 7-8 FT...DESPITE THE EAST WIND. HAVE NUDGED SEAS UP A
FOOT OR SO TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH
MON NIGHT. SWELL THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SHORT
PERIOD FRESH SWELL FROM THE S TO SW. SEAS MAY APPROACH MID TEENS
WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AND TUE NIGHT. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR GREATER PORTLAND
METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE
COUNTY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE
FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR LOWER
COLUMBIA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
OREGON COAST.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR I-5 CORRIDOR
IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
846 AM PST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE THIRD SYSTEM IN A ONE-TWO-THREE PUNCH OF WINTRY
WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WILL PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTIONS
BEING THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF LANE COUNTY. SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MAJOR ICE STORM FOR SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS
SALEM SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. ENOUGH COLD AIR
REMAINS ENTRENCHED FOR MOST PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW NORTH OF A
SALEM TO TILLAMOOK LINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING
WITH JUST SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY. GRADUALLY
MILDER AIR MOVES IN BY MONDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE MORE POTENTIAL ICING
IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE. ONSHORE FLOW AND A CONSOLIDATED PACIFIC JET
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.UPDATE...THE NAM BUFR AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TO
FZRA AFTER SNOW THIS MORNING. 12Z SLE SOUNDING SHOWS THE WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 900 MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 33F AT THIS LEVEL.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ONLY GETS WARMER THROUGH THE DAY. IF YOU
FOLLOW RAP 925 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE A REASONABLE GRASP ON THE
LOCATION OF THE WARM NOSE...THIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND EVEN NORTH THROUGH THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. THE BIG QUESTION IS
WHAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO. IF YOU BELIEVE MOS AND RAP...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
WITH A NORTH GRADIENT FEEDING THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR FEEL THIS IS
OVERDONE.
AM CONSIDERING CONVERTING THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND THE NORTH OREGON
FOOTHILLS TO AN ICE STORM WARNING. THERE IS A PRETTY HEAVY BAND OF
SNOWFALL THAT THE MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SETTING UP OVER
PORTLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS KEEP
THE PORTLAND AREA ALL SNOW OR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY REASONABLE THAT THE SOUTH METRO AREA COULD GET IN ON THE
FREEZING RAIN. THIS COULD MAKE FOR A DISASTROUS SITUATION FOR THE
METRO AREA. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED
THIS FAR NORTH INITIALLY DUE TO SNOW AND SLEET WITH THE REINFORCING
FEED OF COLD AIR COMING.
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY BUT CONFIRMS FEELINGS IN THE
LAST SENTENCE IS THE WELL PERFORMING ECMWF OF THE LAST FEW DAYS KEEP
THINGS ALL SNOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT NORTH OF SALEM AND
WITH THE COLD AIR GETTING REPLENISHED AS THE OFFSHORE LOW ARRIVES AND
STRENGTHENS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH THE WARM NOSE NOT
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTH UNTIL AFTER HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION PUSHES
THROUGH...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SLEET FREEZING RAIN MIX TOMORROW
MORNING IN LIGHTER PRECIPITATION. .
THOSE OF YOU CONSIDERING TRAVEL TODAY SHOULD RECONSIDER IF IT ALL
POSSIBLE ...AS THERE IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANT ICING AS FAR NORTH AS
ALBANY...AND IT IS LIKELY THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
EITHER WAY FOR POINTS NORTH THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLUG OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EITHER WAY...MOST MODELS SUGGEST A MIX OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY. STILL ROADS WILL BE MESSY. POINTS FARTHER SOUTH WILL BEGIN
TO FINALLY THAW AND REMAIN RAIN.
/KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOCUSES ON THE SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THIS WILL BE THE
BIG SHOW IN TOWN. A MAJOR RE-SHUFFLING OF WATCHES WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES WAS DONE FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE...HENCE THE VERY LATE
DISCUSSION ONCE AGAIN. APOLOGIES FOR THAT.
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A HIGH-IMPACT...MULTI FACETED
WINTER STORM WHICH WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST OREGON AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WITH HEAVY SNOW...ICE...AND EVEN WIND NEAR THE
COLUMBIA GORGE. AREAS FROM THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO NORTHWARD
WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW...AND IT WILL BE HEAVY FOR A PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS FROM SALEM SOUTHWARD WILL SEE PRIMARILY
FREEZING RAIN WITH MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FAIRLY RAPIDLY...SO THE LINN/LANE COUNTY CASCADES MAY SEE A QUICK
CHANGE TO RAIN AND VALLEY FREEZING RAIN AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW.
CASCADES NORTH OF SANTIAM PASS WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW...WITH UP TO A FOOT NEAR MOUNT HOOD.
THIS DISCUSSION WOULD GROW AS LARGE AS A NOVEL IF I WERE TO EXPLAIN
ALL THE METEOROLOGICAL REASONING BEHIND THESE DECISIONS. BELOW I WILL
FOCUS ON THE RATIONALE BEHIND WHAT WE CONSIDER THE MOST DANGEROUS
THREATS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE MOST CONCERNING ISSUE WITH THIS
INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BE THE HEAVY ICE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWLANDS...
PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
42N/132W...HEADING E-NE TOWARD THE OREGON COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONGER THAN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW
TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WARM ADVECTION OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN IT WAS WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO
SYSTEMS...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 950-800 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH A WARM NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR WELL
NORTH INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND IN FACT THAT IS ALREADY
HAPPENING WITH -FZRA BEING REPORTED AT EUGENE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
DECENT SUBTROPICAL TAP THAT EXTENDS SW TOWARD HAWAII...WHICH WILL
FEED PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR.
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IS BEING LOCKED IN BY INCREASING EASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A DEEP COLD POOL EAST OF THE CASCADES. AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW...NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
ALSO INCREASING UP THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE ENTIRE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BELOW FREEZING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EVENT...WHILE
LOCALLY 0.35-0.75 INCH OF QPF FALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON.
WITH SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME HEAVIER
BANDS WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO QPF LOCALLY OVER ONE INCH. 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET...06Z NAM/GFS...ALL SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS OCCURRING.
SOUTH OF SALEM...WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALMOST ALL FREEZING
RAIN...NEARLY ALL OF THIS AMOUNT WILL FREEZE ON TREES... POWER
LINES...AND ROADS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. AS
A RESULT...WE OPTED FOR AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN VALLEYS
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. AREAS SALEM SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER
FROM.
FARTHER NORTH...IN THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO...THE WARM NOSE WILL
HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WORKING ITS WAY TO THE COLUMN. THIS DUE TO
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD POOL EAST OF THE CASCADES...FILTERING COLD AIR
WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES. THE RELATIVELY LOWER TERRAIN
BETWEEN MOUNT ADAMS AND MOUNT HOOD WILL ALLOW THIS COLD AIR TO PUSH
FREELY WESTWARD INTO THE PDX/VUO METRO. IF THERE IS ANY QUESTION AS
TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS COLD AIR...IT IS ONLY 10 DEGREES AT
GOVERNMENT CAMP. BASED ON REPORTS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST IT APPEARS
THIS COLD POOL IS ABOUT 5000 FEET DEEP.
SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL BE STUBBORN IN THE PDX/VUO METRO...EXPECT
MOST PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. BASED ON THE QPF EXPECT GENERAL
4-8 INCH TOTALS WHERE PCPN REMAINS SNOW...LIGHTER AMOUNTS NORTH OF
CLARK COUNTY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED CSI BANDING SETS
UP...SOME SPOTS IN THE METRO AREA COULD SEE A FOOT OF NEW SNOW. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE WESTERN WASHINGTON AND YAMHILL COUNTY
WHERE EASTERLY FLOW OFTEN GETS A LITTLE OROGRAPHIC BOOST.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. IF THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL AND
ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION DOES NOT REMAIN AS DEEP THROUGH THE
CASCADES...THERE IS A CHANCE ENOUGH OF THE COLUMN MAY WARM ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO SLEET IN THE PDX/VUO METRO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WOULD CONSIDERABLY CUT DOWN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN THE NORTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WILL BE IN CLACKAMAS COUNTY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE PDX/VUO METRO AREA.
ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOW OFFSHORE COULD CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...PUSHING UP THE COAST AND DRAGGING WITH IT MORE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IF IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WOULD CHANGE
EUGENE TO RAIN EARLY AND CONSIDERABLY CUT BACK ON THEIR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY PUTTING THE PDX/VUO METRO IN THE
CROSSHAIRS FOR A MAJOR ICE EVENT. THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY...AS THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS NEAR THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...AND THIS
IS OFTEN WHERE LOWS TEND TO TRACK. MORE LIKELY THE LOW WILL APPROACH
THE COAST AND OCCLUDE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG COLD POOL
ENTRENCHED OVER NW OREGON.
THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES EARLY SUN MORNING AND
PRECIP WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS THEREAFTER. IT IS LIKELY TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE JUST A BIT SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY ENOUGH TO START THAWING
OUT SOME AREAS THAT GET HIT HARD BY SNOW AND ICE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BUCKLE YOUR SEAT BELTS FOLKS...ITS GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING RIDE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAGLE
.MEDIUM AND LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST ALL AREAS WILL
BE MILDER BY MON AM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...WILL
STILL HAVE COLD AIR BLEEDING INTO THE GORGE. WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...MILDER AIR WILL FINALLY REACH THOSE
AREAS...WITH GRADUAL WARM UP.
MODELS ALL INDICATE A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING RAIN...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER CASCADES. SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS REGION TUE NIGHT/WED WITH
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT ON THU. THESE WILL BRING FAIRLY DECENT ROUND OF
RAIN. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...THEN SETTLE AROUND 3500
TO 4500 FT. LOOKS GOOD FOR BUILDING CASCADES SNOWPACK. ROCKEY.
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY
MVFR TO LOW-END VFR AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
INTO IFR THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION AFTER 18Z...STARTING IN THE
SOUTH AND SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE A CHALLENGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -FZRA IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS THROUGH 06Z
SUN. NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SW WA LIKELY TO BE IFR IN SNOW
THROUGH 06Z SUN. PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR. ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AND
ICING WILL BECOME MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT ISSUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AS OF 16Z BUT WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER.
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL AROUND 18Z.
CONDITIONS TO DROP INTO IFR IN SNOW. PRECIP TO REMAIN AS SNOW
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z SUN...AND POSSIBLY AS LONG AS 06Z.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING
TO -FZRA. LOOKS LIKE MORE -FZRA AND SLEET THREAT FOR THE TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z SUN...BUT FORTUNATELY PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING. IFR TO
LOW-END MVFR TO PREVAIL AFTER 06Z SUN. WEISHAAR
&&
.MARINE...EAST OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES THIS MORNING. STILL GETTING
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AT BUOY 029. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WILL
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN THE NORTH WATERS
THROUGH 22Z. GFS WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE 20-25 KT S-SW WIND ACROSS
THE FAR SRN WATERS LATE TODAY. NAM AND ECMWF MAINTAIN EAST WIND
AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS
SUN NIGHT AND MON. A STRONGER SYSTEM TUE NIGHT AND WED COULD
PRODUCE GALES.
SEAS RUNNING A COUPLE FEET HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. NRN
BUOYS AT 7-8 FT...DESPITE THE EAST WIND. HAVE NUDGED SEAS UP A
FOOT OR SO TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH
MON NIGHT. SWELL THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SHORT
PERIOD FRESH SWELL FROM THE S TO SW. SEAS MAY APPROACH MID TEENS
WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AND TUE NIGHT. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR GREATER PORTLAND
METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE
COUNTY-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE
FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR LOWER
COLUMBIA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
OREGON COAST.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR I-5 CORRIDOR
IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
745 AM PST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE THIRD SYSTEM IN A ONE-TWO-THREE PUNCH OF WINTRY
WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WILL PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTIONS
BEING THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF LANE COUNTY. SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MAJOR ICE STORM FOR SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS
SALEM SOUTHWARD. ENOUGH COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED FOR MOST
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW NORTH OF A SALEM TO TILLAMOOK LINE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY. GRADUALLY MILDER AIR MOVES IN BY
MONDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE MORE POTENTIAL ICING IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE.
ONSHORE FLOW AND A CONSOLIDATED PACIFIC JET WILL BRING A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
&&
.UPDATE...THE NAM BUFR AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TO
FZRA AFTER SNOW THIS MORNING. 12Z SLE SOUNDING SHOWS THE WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 900 MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 33F AT THIS LEVEL.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ONLY GETS WARMER THROUGH THE DAY. IF YOU
FOLLOW RAP 925 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE A REASONABLE GRASP ON THE
LOCATION OF THE WARM NOSE...THIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND EVEN NORTH THROUGH THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. THE BIG QUESTION IS
WHAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO. IF YOU BELIEVE MOS AND RAP...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
WITH A NORTH GRADIENT FEEDING THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR FEEL THIS IS
OVERDONE.
AM CONSIDERING CONVERTING THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND THE NORTH OREGON
FOOTHILLS TO AN ICE STORM WARNING. THERE IS A PRETTY HEAVY BAND OF
SNOWFALL THAT THE MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SETTING UP OVER
PORTLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS KEEP
THE PORTLAND AREA ALL SNOW OR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY REASONABLE THAT THE SOUTH METRO AREA COULD GET IN ON THE
FREEZING RAIN . THIS COULD MAKE FOR A DISASTROUS SITUATION FOR THE
METRO AREA. THOSE OF YOU CONSIDERING TRAVEL TODAY SHOULD RECONSIDER
IF IT ALL POSSIBLE...AS THERE IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANT ICING AS FAR
NORTH AS ALBANY...AND IT IS LIKELY THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE SOME DECISIONS SOON.
/KMD
.SHORT TERM...THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOCUSES ON THE SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THIS WILL BE THE
BIG SHOW IN TOWN. A MAJOR RE-SHUFFLING OF WATCHES WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES WAS DONE FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE...HENCE THE VERY LATE
DISCUSSION ONCE AGAIN. APOLOGIES FOR THAT.
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A HIGH-IMPACT...MULTI FACETED
WINTER STORM WHICH WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST OREGON AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WITH HEAVY SNOW...ICE...AND EVEN WIND NEAR THE
COLUMBIA GORGE. AREAS FROM THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO NORTHWARD
WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW...AND IT WILL BE HEAVY FOR A PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS FROM SALEM SOUTHWARD WILL SEE PRIMARILY
FREEZING RAIN WITH MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FAIRLY RAPIDLY...SO THE LINN/LANE COUNTY CASCADES MAY SEE A QUICK
CHANGE TO RAIN AND VALLEY FREEZING RAIN AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW.
CASCADES NORTH OF SANTIAM PASS WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW...WITH UP TO A FOOT NEAR MOUNT HOOD.
THIS DISCUSSION WOULD GROW AS LARGE AS A NOVEL IF I WERE TO EXPLAIN
ALL THE METEOROLOGICAL REASONING BEHIND THESE DECISIONS. BELOW I WILL
FOCUS ON THE RATIONALE BEHIND WHAT WE CONSIDER THE MOST DANGEROUS
THREATS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE MOST CONCERNING ISSUE WITH THIS
INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BE THE HEAVY ICE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWLANDS...
PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
42N/132W...HEADING E-NE TOWARD THE OREGON COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONGER THAN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW
TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WARM ADVECTION OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN IT WAS WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO
SYSTEMS...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 950-800 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH A WARM NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR WELL
NORTH INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND IN FACT THAT IS ALREADY
HAPPENING WITH -FZRA BEING REPORTED AT EUGENE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
DECENT SUBTROPICAL TAP THAT EXTENDS SW TOWARD HAWAII...WHICH WILL
FEED PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR.
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IS BEING LOCKED IN BY INCREASING EASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A DEEP COLD POOL EAST OF THE CASCADES. AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW...NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
ALSO INCREASING UP THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE ENTIRE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BELOW FREEZING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EVENT...WHILE
LOCALLY 0.35-0.75 INCH OF QPF FALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON.
WITH SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME HEAVIER
BANDS WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO QPF LOCALLY OVER ONE INCH. 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET...06Z NAM/GFS...ALL SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS OCCURRING.
SOUTH OF SALEM...WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALMOST ALL FREEZING
RAIN...NEARLY ALL OF THIS AMOUNT WILL FREEZE ON TREES... POWER
LINES...AND ROADS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. AS
A RESULT...WE OPTED FOR AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN VALLEYS
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. AREAS SALEM SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER
FROM.
FARTHER NORTH...IN THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO...THE WARM NOSE WILL
HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WORKING ITS WAY TO THE COLUMN. THIS DUE TO
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD POOL EAST OF THE CASCADES...FILTERING COLD AIR
WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES. THE RELATIVELY LOWER TERRAIN
BETWEEN MOUNT ADAMS AND MOUNT HOOD WILL ALLOW THIS COLD AIR TO PUSH
FREELY WESTWARD INTO THE PDX/VUO METRO. IF THERE IS ANY QUESTION AS
TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS COLD AIR...IT IS ONLY 10 DEGREES AT
GOVERNMENT CAMP. BASED ON REPORTS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST IT APPEARS
THIS COLD POOL IS ABOUT 5000 FEET DEEP.
SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL BE STUBBORN IN THE PDX/VUO METRO...EXPECT
MOST PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. BASED ON THE QPF EXPECT GENERAL
4-8 INCH TOTALS WHERE PCPN REMAINS SNOW...LIGHTER AMOUNTS NORTH OF
CLARK COUNTY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED CSI BANDING SETS
UP...SOME SPOTS IN THE METRO AREA COULD SEE A FOOT OF NEW SNOW. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE WESTERN WASHINGTON AND YAMHILL COUNTY
WHERE EASTERLY FLOW OFTEN GETS A LITTLE OROGRAPHIC BOOST.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. IF THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL AND
ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION DOES NOT REMAIN AS DEEP THROUGH THE
CASCADES...THERE IS A CHANCE ENOUGH OF THE COLUMN MAY WARM ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO SLEET IN THE PDX/VUO METRO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WOULD CONSIDERABLY CUT DOWN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN THE NORTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WILL BE IN CLACKAMAS COUNTY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE PDX/VUO METRO AREA.
ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOW OFFSHORE COULD CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...PUSHING UP THE COAST AND DRAGGING WITH IT MORE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IF IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WOULD CHANGE
EUGENE TO RAIN EARLY AND CONSIDERABLY CUT BACK ON THEIR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY PUTTING THE PDX/VUO METRO IN THE
CROSSHAIRS FOR A MAJOR ICE EVENT. THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY...AS THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS NEAR THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...AND THIS
IS OFTEN WHERE LOWS TEND TO TRACK. MORE LIKELY THE LOW WILL APPROACH
THE COAST AND OCCLUDE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG COLD POOL
ENTRENCHED OVER NW OREGON.
THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES EARLY SUN MORNING AND
PRECIP WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS THEREAFTER. IT IS LIKELY TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE JUST A BIT SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY ENOUGH TO START THAWING
OUT SOME AREAS THAT GET HIT HARD BY SNOW AND ICE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BUCKLE YOUR SEAT BELTS FOLKS...ITS GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING RIDE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAGLE
.MEDIUM AND LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST ALL AREAS WILL
BE MILDER BY MON AM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...WILL
STILL HAVE COLD AIR BLEEDING INTO THE GORGE. WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...MILDER AIR WILL FINALLY REACH THOSE
AREAS...WITH GRADUAL WARM UP.
MODELS ALL INDICATE A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING RAIN...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER CASCADES. SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS REGION TUE NIGHT/WED WITH
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT ON THU. THESE WILL BRING FAIRLY DECENT ROUND OF
RAIN. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...THEN SETTLE AROUND 3500
TO 4500 FT. LOOKS GOOD FOR BUILDING CASCADES SNOWPACK. ROCKEY.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MVFR IN THE N. THROUGH THE MORNING...
18Z...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SIMILAR WITH IFR CONDITIONS S AND
MVFR PREDOMINANTLY N. AFTER SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING
IN THE N AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE S... PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
RETURN TO SNOW IN THE N THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE LATER TODAY...AFTER 18Z...ACROSS THE S...AND
AS SNOW PICKS UP IN THE N A RETURN TO PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS LIKELY TO
BE AM IX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW. OVERALL THIS MORNING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY MVFR...WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AFTER 18Z SNOW IS LIKELY TO RETURN...AND AS
THAT HAPPENS VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THIS EVENING...06Z.
&&
.MARINE...EASTERLY OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME TODAY...
BRINGING AN END TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK INTO SMALL
CRAFT RANGE WITH A FRONT MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND
MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TUE.
SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SWELL THROUGH
MON NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SHORT PERIOD FRESH SWELL FROM THE S
TO SW. SEAS MAY APPROACH MID TEENS WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. &&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE
COUNTY-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE
FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR LOWER
COLUMBIA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
THIS EVENING FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR I-5 CORRIDOR
IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60
NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1142 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
LATEST RUC AND SREF BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH THE SREF GOING SO FAR AS TO SUGGEST CERTAINTY
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WHITE RIVER. THEREFORE...ADDED A CHANCE
MENTION OF POPS FOR SOUTHERN JONES/LYMAN COUNTIES. NO OTHER
CHANGES OF NOTE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SMALL AND COMPACT VORT MAX IS SPINNING ITS WAY EASTWARD RIGHT
ALONG I-90 ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT IS PRODUCING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY SOON
AND OFF INTO FSD CWA. A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ON WEB CAMS AND IT APPEARS ACCUMS HAVE BEEN RATHER
LIGHT.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS QUIET AND COLD WHICH IS
NOTHING NEW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT GET PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SETTLING OVER
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY MORNING
MAY ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO REACH 20 BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM SEEMS TO FAVOR A LOW
AMPLITUDE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN...IE A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE EAST. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. THERE IS ALSO SOME CHANCE FOR PCPN...PARTICULARLY
IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...DEPENDING UPON
THE MODEL YOU USE. ALL MODELS INDICATE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF
ENERGY. THESE DIFFERENCES MEAN STICKING TO A MODEL BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST IS THE BEST FORECAST MOVE. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL VS RECENT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MAY
SNEAK INTO THE KPIR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION TO VSBYS AT THIS POINT. THE REMAINING TAF
SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT AN AREA OF MVFR
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION TONIGHT. 5
TO 10 KT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SERR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1050 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
LATEST RUC AND SREF BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH THE SREF GOING SO FAR AS TO SUGGEST CERTAINTY
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WHITE RIVER. THEREFORE...ADDED A CHANCE
MENTION OF POPS FOR SOUTHERN JONES/LYMAN COUNTIES. NO OTHER
CHANGES OF NOTE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SMALL AND COMPACT VORT MAX IS SPINNING ITS WAY EASTWARD RIGHT
ALONG I-90 ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT IS PRODUCING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY SOON
AND OFF INTO FSD CWA. A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ON WEB CAMS AND IT APPEARS ACCUMS HAVE BEEN RATHER
LIGHT.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS QUIET AND COLD WHICH IS
NOTHING NEW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT GET PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SETTLING OVER
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY MORNING
MAY ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO REACH 20 BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM SEEMS TO FAVOR A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN...IE A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE EAST. THIS OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
THERE IS ALSO SOME CHANCE FOR PCPN...PARTICULARLY IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL YOU
USE. ALL MODELS INDICATE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF ENERGY. THESE
DIFFERENCES MEAN STICKING TO A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST IS THE
BEST FORECAST MOVE. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL VS RECENT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KPIR THIS MORNING OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A BATCH OF MVFR STRATUS
FLOWING NORTH MAY AFFECT KATY FOR A FEW HOUR THIS MORNING BEFORE
MOVING EAST. THE REMAINING TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1231 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND
PROFILES INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE WHICH PRODUCED THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. A VERY SUBTLE BUT WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE IS
LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AS OF 10 AM
CST...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S NORTH OF I-40 AND UPPER 20S
TO MAINLY LOWER 30S ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. VISIBLE
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ATTM. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ROUGHLY NORTH OF A
TUNICA TO CORINTH LINE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE A LITTLE BIT OF WARM AIR HAS
SNUCK IN BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NE AR TO LOWER 30S TOWARD MONROE COUNTY MS. SO FAR MANY
PLACES HAVE RECEIVED ABOUT AN 1/2 INCH TO AN INCH WITH UP TO 2
INCHES IN A BAND FROM POINSETT AND CROSS TOWARD TIPTON AND
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES.
TODAY...LATEST NAM AND HRRR SHOWS SOME PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
MID MORNING. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
THE TN/MS LINE AND A MIXTURE OF PRECIP TYPES TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP
MAY WIND DOWN AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. AS A RESULT
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST. EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TEMPS
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH GUIDANCE NUMBERS SO UNDERCUT THEM
SUBSTANTIALLY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL HANG IN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FREE
FALLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY...NEXT ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE WHILE TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER NE AR TO LOWER
50S OVER NE MS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED AND COLD PERIOD ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERS IN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
JOINED THE GFS AND KEEPS ANY SURFACE WAVE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WELL
TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SMALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF THE WINTER VARIETY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER NOW WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RESULTING IN HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH BUT FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN THE FREEZER BY MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTER
WEATHER WILL BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH
GOOD MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT PUSHES THROUGH. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING LESSER AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS ALSO PICKING UP
THIS DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW WITH
SOME SLEET POSSIBLE SOUTH. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
LOOSES ITS GRIP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS START TO
WARM. A POTENT UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINING EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOT
GREAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOOKS DRY AND MILDER WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (08/18Z-09/18Z)
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AT KMEM AROUND 19Z...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. THIS WILL LEAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 09/09Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR AROUND
09/15Z EXCEPT REMAINING IFR AT KJBR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. WINDS
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 33 30 47 28 / 30 0 10 30
MKL 32 26 46 26 / 40 0 10 30
JBR 28 25 39 22 / 20 0 10 30
TUP 39 31 53 35 / 40 0 10 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1058 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND
PROFILES INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE WHICH PRODUCED THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. A VERY SUBTLE BUT WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE IS
LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AS OF 10 AM
CST...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S NORTH OF I-40 AND UPPER 20S
TO MAINLY LOWER 30S ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. VISIBLE
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ATTM. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ROUGHLY NORTH OF A
TUNICA TO CORINTH LINE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE A LITTLE BIT OF WARM AIR HAS
SNUCK IN BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NE AR TO LOWER 30S TOWARD MONROE COUNTY MS. SO FAR MANY
PLACES HAVE RECEIVED ABOUT AN 1/2 INCH TO AN INCH WITH UP TO 2
INCHES IN A BAND FROM POINSETT AND CROSS TOWARD TIPTON AND
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES.
TODAY...LATEST NAM AND HRRR SHOWS SOME PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
MID MORNING. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
THE TN/MS LINE AND A MIXTURE OF PRECIP TYPES TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP
MAY WIND DOWN AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. AS A RESULT
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST. EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TEMPS
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH GUIDANCE NUMBERS SO UNDERCUT THEM
SUBSTANTIALLY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL HANG IN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FREE
FALLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY...NEXT ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE WHILE TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER NE AR TO LOWER
50S OVER NE MS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED AND COLD PERIOD ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERS IN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
JOINED THE GFS AND KEEPS ANY SURFACE WAVE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WELL
TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SMALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF THE WINTER VARIETY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER NOW WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RESULTING IN HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH BUT FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN THE FREEZER BY MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTER
WEATHER WILL BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH
GOOD MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT PUSHES THROUGH. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING LESSER AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS ALSO PICKING UP
THIS DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW WITH
SOME SLEET POSSIBLE SOUTH. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
LOOSES ITS GRIP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS START TO
WARM. A POTENT UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINING EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOT
GREAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOOKS DRY AND MILDER WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
VARIED CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH THE LOWEST/IFR
CONDITIONS AT MEM AND MKL. FEEL THAT MORE UNIFORM MVFR CIGS WILL
SETUP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
THIS DECK WILL REMAIN DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO HAVE
GONE VFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST MVFR CIGS MAY EASILY RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP NEAR JBR AND MEM BY 09/12Z. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THIS OCCURRING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST...THEN TURN EITHER CALM OR VARIABLE LATE.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 33 30 47 28 / 30 10 10 30
MKL 32 26 46 26 / 40 10 10 30
JBR 28 25 39 22 / 20 10 10 30
TUP 39 31 53 35 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
519 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ATTM. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ROUGHLY NORTH OF A
TUNICA TO CORINTH LINE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE A LITTLE BIT OF WARM AIR HAS
SNUCK IN BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NE AR TO LOWER 30S TOWARD MONROE COUNTY MS. SO FAR MANY
PLACES HAVE RECEIVED ABOUT AN 1/2 INCH TO AN INCH WITH UP TO 2
INCHES IN A BAND FROM POINSETT AND CROSS TOWARD TIPTON AND
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES.
TODAY...LATEST NAM AND HRRR SHOWS SOME PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
MID MORNING. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
THE TN/MS LINE AND A MIXTURE OF PRECIP TYPES TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP
MAY WIND DOWN AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. AS A RESULT
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST. EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TEMPS
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH GUIDANCE NUMBERS SO UNDERCUT THEM
SUBSTANTIALLY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL HANG IN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FREE
FALLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY...NEXT ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE WHILE TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER NE AR TO LOWER
50S OVER NE MS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED AND COLD PERIOD ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERS IN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
JOINED THE GFS AND KEEPS ANY SURFACE WAVE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WELL
TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SMALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF THE WINTER VARIETY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER NOW WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RESULTING IN HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH BUT FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN THE FREEZER BY MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTER
WEATHER WILL BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH
GOOD MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT PUSHES THROUGH. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING LESSER AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS ALSO PICKING UP
THIS DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW WITH
SOME SLEET POSSIBLE SOUTH. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
LOOSES ITS GRIP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS START TO
WARM. A POTENT UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINING EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOT
GREAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOOKS DRY AND MILDER WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
VARIED CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH THE LOWEST/IFR
CONDITIONS AT MEM AND MKL. FEEL THAT MORE UNIFORM MVFR CIGS WILL
SETUP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
THIS DECK WILL REMAIN DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO HAVE
GONE VFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST MVFR CIGS MAY EASILY RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP NEAR JBR AND MEM BY 09/12Z. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THIS OCCURRING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST...THEN TURN EITHER CALM OR VARIABLE LATE.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 33 30 47 28 / 30 10 10 30
MKL 32 26 46 26 / 40 10 10 30
JBR 28 25 39 22 / 20 10 10 30
TUP 39 31 53 35 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-
BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
YALOBUSHA.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON
TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
401 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ATTM. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ROUGHLY NORTH OF A
TUNICA TO CORINTH LINE WITH A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE A LITTLE BIT OF WARM AIR HAS
SNUCK IN BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NE AR TO LOWER 30S TOWARD MONROE COUNTY MS. SO FAR MANY
PLACES HAVE RECEIVED ABOUT AN 1/2 INCH TO AN INCH WITH UP TO 2
INCHES IN A BAND FROM POINSETT AND CROSS TOWARD TIPTON AND
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES.
TODAY...LATEST NAM AND HRRR SHOWS SOME PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
MID MORNING. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
THE TN/MS LINE AND A MIXTURE OF PRECIP TYPES TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP
MAY WIND DOWN AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. AS A RESULT
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST. EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TEMPS
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH GUIDANCE NUMBERS SO UNDERCUT THEM
SUBSTANTIALLY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL HANG IN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FREE
FALLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY...NEXT ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE WHILE TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER NE AR TO LOWER
50S OVER NE MS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED AND COLD PERIOD ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERS IN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
JOINED THE GFS AND KEEPS ANY SURFACE WAVE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WELL
TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SMALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF THE WINTER VARIETY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER NOW WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
RESULTING IN HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH BUT FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN THE FREEZER BY MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTER
WEATHER WILL BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH
GOOD MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT PUSHES THROUGH. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING LESSER AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS ALSO PICKING UP
THIS DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW WITH
SOME SLEET POSSIBLE SOUTH. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
LOOSES ITS GRIP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS START TO
WARM. A POTENT UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINING EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOT
GREAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOOKS DRY AND MILDER WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. LOOKS LIKE NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST BANDS THUS HAVE LOWERED
VSBYS AND CIGS AT KTUP. ALSO WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS
TOMORROW. LEFT IFR CONDITIONS AT KMEM AND KMKL THROUGH 00Z AND 20Z
AT KTUP. THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
KRM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 33 30 47 28 / 30 10 10 30
MKL 32 26 46 26 / 40 10 10 30
JBR 28 25 39 22 / 20 10 10 30
TUP 39 31 53 35 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-
BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
YALOBUSHA.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON
TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1104 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 921 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WILL AT LEAST SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW NEAR AN INCH WITH
ISOLATED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING A BIT MORE. TO ADDRESS THIS...HAVE
ISSUED A NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
AND SREF GUIDANCE...ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
INCREASE BANDING OF SNOW...LEADING TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
AS THE WAVE SWINGS THROUGH...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF ROADS BECOMING SNOW
COVERED...MAINLY IN POINSETT AND CROSS COUNTIES IN EASTERN
ARKANSAS...AND EVEN A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY TENNESSEE.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE MID-SOUTH.
NEW ZONES AND UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.
AC3
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE AN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS OF 3 PM CST
WITH TEMPERATURES PREDOMINANTLY IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S NORTH
OF I-40 AND UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. WINTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. THIS HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS. 290-295K SURFACES SHOW INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT
TERM TRENDS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHWEST AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA MAY MOVE
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING ONE INCH WILL BE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40...EAST ARKANSAS SOUTH OF I-40...PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. ONE INCH TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS EAST
ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHORT MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST HEADLINES IF NECESSARY.
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
INTO THE 40S SOUTH OF I-40 ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A VERY COMPLEX
PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-40 IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS
SNOW...WITH A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION /FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...SNOW/ LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 12Z MODELS
DISAGREE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION TYPES/AMOUNTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION
TYPES/AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WHEN MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION SOUTH OF I-40 BY
TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OCCURRING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES MAY
STILL REMAIN WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. LOOKS LIKE NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST BANDS THUS HAVE LOWERED
VSBYS AND CIGS AT KTUP. ALSO WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS
TOMORROW. LEFT IFR CONDITIONS AT KMEM AND KMKL THROUGH 00Z AND 20Z
AT KTUP. THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
KRM
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 24 40 28 44 / 70 10 10 10
MKL 21 38 23 41 / 60 10 10 10
JBR 19 33 23 38 / 70 10 10 10
TUP 26 46 28 49 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR ALCORN-
BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
YALOBUSHA.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1201 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
WILL LET THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED DRASTICALLY THE PAST HOUR IN CHILDRESS AS WEST WINDS
ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN AND PROVIDE FOR SOME DEEPER MIXING.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
WINDS A FEW MPH ON THE CAPROCK AS SPEEDS HAVE COME UP INTO THE
20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH.
&&
.AVIATION...
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY/GUSTY AT KLBB WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT
KLBB...KCDS WILL STILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO LIFT WHILE VISIBILITIES HAVE COME
UP INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. WILL LEAVE PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS IN
THROUGH 19Z BEFORE INTRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AS WINDS SHOULD COME
AROUND TO THE WEST AND HELP MIX MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS OUT.
QUESTIONS ARISE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER SUB-
VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP...BUT HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN
PREVAILING VFR CRITERIA AT THIS TIME WHILE MENTIONING A SCATTERED
DECK BELOW FL010.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
DESPITE STEADY SW WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...A SURFACE
TROUGH STRUGGLED TO MAKE HEADWAY OFF THE CAPROCK AND AS A RESULT
OUR NERN COUNTIES WERE INVADED BY MOIST SE WINDS COMPLETE WITH
STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG. CONSIDERING WE HAVE NO MEANINGFUL
IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH TODAY IN THIS FLAT NW UPPER FLOW
REGIME...ANY EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HEAVILY
DEPEND ON DAYTIME MIXING. SUCH FEATS USUALLY DON/T COME EASY OFF
THE CAPROCK WHEN STRATUS IS ALREADY ENTRENCHED...SO WE WILL GIVE
THE NOD TO THE HRRR WHICH KEEPS CHILDRESS AND SURROUNDING LOCALES
SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS UNTIL CLOSE TO NOON. EARLIER CALL TO MEMPHIS
INDICATED VIS OF JUST 1.5 BLOCKS. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING
ENOUGH AT CHILDRESS AND WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL EXPANDING SLOWLY
SOUTH PER 11-3.9 IMAGERY...HAVE OPTED FOR A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL 16Z FOR OUR NERN COUNTIES.
THE OTHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS MAX TEMPS. ANYONE VIEWING OUR MAX
TEMP GRID IN NDFD MIGHT THINK WE/RE PAYING HOMAGE TO PICASSO...
BUT THIS IS SOLELY THE RESULT OF A STUBBORN SNOWPACK/HIGH ALBEDO
FROM GRAHAM NORTHEAST TO GUTHRIE. FARTHER WEST...DRY SOILS AND
15-20 MPH WEST WINDS BY PEAK HEATING WILL EASILY PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN 70 IN A FEW SPOTS. ALONG THESE LINES...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT THE
SHORT DURATION OF THESE LOW HUMIDITIES /90 MIN OR LESS/ SEEMS
UNSUPPORTIVE OF EVEN A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AT THIS
TIME.
EXPECT EVEN MILDER LOWS TONIGHT UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WINDS AOA 10 MPH.
LONG TERM...
BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE CHANGED TO A
DRIER FORECAST THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THE INCOMING 06Z RUNS ARE
GOING BACK TOWARDS A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE 00Z RUNS DID. PART
OF THIS APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED SLOWER TREND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE WAVE. ONLY SIMILARITY IN THE GRIDS IS THAT THERE IS A MEAGER
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM SO ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WITH ADDED
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING...OPTED TO KEEP THE POP GRIDS UNCHANGED
FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING
THE WAVE DOWN OR IF THEY SPEED THE TIMING UP ONCE AGAIN. OTHER
CHANCE WAS IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUIDANCE COMING
IN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVING ON LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AND A CONTINUED NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE ERODING
THE COLD AIR TOO FAST AND UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE AND REMAINED CLOSE
TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD.
BEYOND TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WEAK LEE SURFACE TROFING TO
TAKE PLACE AND BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 31 59 20 38 19 / 0 0 10 10 30
TULIA 30 56 20 33 17 / 0 10 10 10 30
PLAINVIEW 30 59 21 34 18 / 0 10 10 10 30
LEVELLAND 33 67 23 40 20 / 0 0 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 32 63 22 38 19 / 0 0 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 35 70 24 43 22 / 0 0 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 33 69 24 41 20 / 0 0 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 27 40 21 31 17 / 0 10 10 10 20
SPUR 22 49 23 34 19 / 0 0 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 29 59 24 35 21 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR AT LBB WITH SUSTAINED WEST WINDS TICKING UP TO NEARLY 20
KNOTS BY MIDDAY. CDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN
WITH STRATUS AND DENSE FOG FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. RATHER
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDS WILL RAPIDLY COMMENCE AROUND
18Z FOLLOWING A SURFACE TROUGH WITH DRIER WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
DESPITE STEADY SW WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...A SURFACE
TROUGH STRUGGLED TO MAKE HEADWAY OFF THE CAPROCK AND AS A RESULT
OUR NERN COUNTIES WERE INVADED BY MOIST SE WINDS COMPLETE WITH
STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG. CONSIDERING WE HAVE NO MEANINGFUL
IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH TODAY IN THIS FLAT NW UPPER FLOW
REGIME...ANY EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HEAVILY
DEPEND ON DAYTIME MIXING. SUCH FEATS USUALLY DON/T COME EASY OFF
THE CAPROCK WHEN STRATUS IS ALREADY ENTRENCHED...SO WE WILL GIVE
THE NOD TO THE HRRR WHICH KEEPS CHILDRESS AND SURROUNDING LOCALES
SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS UNTIL CLOSE TO NOON. EARLIER CALL TO MEMPHIS
INDICATED VIS OF JUST 1.5 BLOCKS. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING
ENOUGH AT CHILDRESS AND WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL EXPANDING SLOWLY
SOUTH PER 11-3.9 IMAGERY...HAVE OPTED FOR A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL 16Z FOR OUR NERN COUNTIES.
THE OTHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS MAX TEMPS. ANYONE VIEWING OUR MAX
TEMP GRID IN NDFD MIGHT THINK WE/RE PAYING HOMAGE TO PICASSO...
BUT THIS IS SOLELY THE RESULT OF A STUBBORN SNOWPACK/HIGH ALBEDO
FROM GRAHAM NORTHEAST TO GUTHRIE. FARTHER WEST...DRY SOILS AND
15-20 MPH WEST WINDS BY PEAK HEATING WILL EASILY PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN 70 IN A FEW SPOTS. ALONG THESE LINES...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT THE
SHORT DURATION OF THESE LOW HUMIDITIES /90 MIN OR LESS/ SEEMS
UNSUPPORTIVE OF EVEN A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AT THIS
TIME.
EXPECT EVEN MILDER LOWS TONIGHT UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WINDS AOA 10 MPH.
LONG TERM...
BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE CHANGED TO A
DRIER FORECAST THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THE INCOMING 06Z RUNS ARE
GOING BACK TOWARDS A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE 00Z RUNS DID. PART
OF THIS APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED SLOWER TREND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE WAVE. ONLY SIMILARITY IN THE GRIDS IS THAT THERE IS A MEAGER
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM SO ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WITH ADDED
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING...OPTED TO KEEP THE POP GRIDS UNCHANGED
FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING
THE WAVE DOWN OR IF THEY SPEED THE TIMING UP ONCE AGAIN. OTHER
CHANCE WAS IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUIDANCE COMING
IN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVING ON LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AND A CONTINUED NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE ERODING
THE COLD AIR TOO FAST AND UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE AND REMAINED CLOSE
TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD.
BEYOND TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WEAK LEE SURFACE TROFING TO
TAKE PLACE AND BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 31 59 20 38 / 0 0 0 10 10
TULIA 62 30 56 20 33 / 0 0 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 64 30 59 21 34 / 0 0 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 68 33 67 23 40 / 0 0 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 32 63 22 38 / 0 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 68 35 70 24 43 / 0 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 68 33 69 24 41 / 0 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 48 27 40 21 31 / 0 0 10 10 10
SPUR 51 22 49 23 34 / 0 0 0 10 10
ASPERMONT 64 29 59 24 35 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ024>026-031-032.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
445 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...
DESPITE STEADY SW WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...A SURFACE
TROUGH STRUGGLED TO MAKE HEADWAY OFF THE CAPROCK AND AS A RESULT
OUR NERN COUNTIES WERE INVADED BY MOIST SE WINDS COMPLETE WITH
STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG. CONSIDERING WE HAVE NO MEANINGFUL
IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH TODAY IN THIS FLAT NW UPPER FLOW
REGIME...ANY EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HEAVILY
DEPEND ON DAYTIME MIXING. SUCH FEATS USUALLY DON/T COME EASY OFF
THE CAPROCK WHEN STRATUS IS ALREADY ENTRENCHED...SO WE WILL GIVE
THE NOD TO THE HRRR WHICH KEEPS CHILDRESS AND SURROUNDING LOCALES
SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS UNTIL CLOSE TO NOON. EARLIER CALL TO MEMPHIS
INDICATED VIS OF JUST 1.5 BLOCKS. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING
ENOUGH AT CHILDRESS AND WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL EXPANDING SLOWLY
SOUTH PER 11-3.9 IMAGERY...HAVE OPTED FOR A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL 16Z FOR OUR NERN COUNTIES.
THE OTHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS MAX TEMPS. ANYONE VIEWING OUR MAX
TEMP GRID IN NDFD MIGHT THINK WE/RE PAYING HOMAGE TO PICASSO...
BUT THIS IS SOLELY THE RESULT OF A STUBBORN SNOWPACK/HIGH ALBEDO
FROM GRAHAM NORTHEAST TO GUTHRIE. FARTHER WEST...DRY SOILS AND
15-20 MPH WEST WINDS BY PEAK HEATING WILL EASILY PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN 70 IN A FEW SPOTS. ALONG THESE LINES...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS...BUT THE
SHORT DURATION OF THESE LOW HUMIDITIES /90 MIN OR LESS/ SEEMS
UNSUPPORTIVE OF EVEN A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AT THIS
TIME.
EXPECT EVEN MILDER LOWS TONIGHT UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WINDS AOA 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM...
BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE CHANGED TO A
DRIER FORECAST THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THE INCOMING 06Z RUNS ARE
GOING BACK TOWARDS A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE 00Z RUNS DID. PART
OF THIS APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED SLOWER TREND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE WAVE. ONLY SIMILARITY IN THE GRIDS IS THAT THERE IS A MEAGER
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM SO ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WITH ADDED
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING...OPTED TO KEEP THE POP GRIDS UNCHANGED
FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING
THE WAVE DOWN OR IF THEY SPEED THE TIMING UP ONCE AGAIN. OTHER
CHANCE WAS IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUIDANCE COMING
IN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVING ON LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AND A CONTINUED NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE ERODING
THE COLD AIR TOO FAST AND UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE AND REMAINED CLOSE
TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD.
BEYOND TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WEAK LEE SURFACE TROFING TO
TAKE PLACE AND BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 31 59 20 38 / 0 0 0 10 10
TULIA 62 30 56 20 33 / 0 0 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 64 30 59 21 34 / 0 0 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 68 33 67 23 40 / 0 0 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 32 63 22 38 / 0 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 68 35 70 24 43 / 0 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 68 33 69 24 41 / 0 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 48 27 40 21 31 / 0 0 10 10 10
SPUR 51 22 49 23 34 / 0 0 0 10 10
ASPERMONT 64 29 59 24 35 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ024>026-031-032.
&&
$$
93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1124 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ONLY UPDATE AT THIS TIME WILL BE TO GO AHEAD AND MENTION PATCHY
FREEZING FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST AND THE CHANCES FOR PATCHY ARE LOOKING A BIT BETTER.
WE STILL DO NOT BELIEVE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE...BUT JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON CARS...TABLES...AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES IN AREAS THAT IT MAY FORM. OTHERWISE THE GRIDS
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CHALLENGES OVERNIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE EAST WILL
BE TOP DOWN DRYING WITH SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTING
AND A LIGHT SSE WINDS. HRRR AND NAM12 BOTH HIT ON SOME FG/FZFG
POTENTIAL WEST OF I-35 BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE CHALLENGE IS WILL
THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOUTH WINDS STAYING UP AROUND
5 KTS BE ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBYS UP. HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD HERE AND WILL INTRODUCE IFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT KEEP VSBYS 2-3
SM ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS AROUND MORNING WITH THE THOUGH ANY DENSE
FZFG MORE OF A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE SHALLOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO MVFR BY MID MORNING AS WAA ENSUES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THE WAA SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX OUT CIGS FOR
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS BY 18Z/AFTER.
TOMORROW NIGHT IT APPEARS BETTER FOR FG WITH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
VERY SHALLOW WITH CONTINUED WAA OVER THE TOP. LESS CLOUDS AROUND
WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WINDS TO DROP TO LESS THAN 5
KTS AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
05/
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM AS
SCHEDULED. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SWINGING EAST
ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE RADAR INDICATES PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE WILL STILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF
FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.
THE NEXT THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND CLOUDS ERODE FROM
WEST TO EAST. FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH PATCHY FOG...FEELING THAT
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WILL MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF FOG DOES BECOME MORE DENSE OR
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...WE WOULD NEED TO CONSIDER A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS AFFECTED. HOPEFULLY FOG WILL REMAIN
PATCHY AND LIGHT...BUT STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES A WE HEAD
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A BAND OF SNOWFALL
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES TODAY AND
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST. SO FAR MEASURABLE
SNOW HAS BEEN CONFINED THE REGION FROM OLNEY TO BOWIE TO
SHERMAN...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW NOT
SEEING MUCH OF ANYTHING. WE MAY CANCEL A FEW OF THESE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE DRY
SLOT THAT WILL BE ROTATING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHORTLY.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX...THE STRONG
FORCING IS SQUEEZING OUT A FEW SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES/SLEET
PELLETS...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS VERY
LIGHT ACTIVITY.
SOME SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AVAILABLE FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHEAST ZONES BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM...BUT SINCE AGREEMENT IS
POOR THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EITHER CANCEL THE ADVISORY
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES EARLY OR EXTEND IT THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM.
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 6 PM AND WATCH TRENDS TO MAKE
THE CALL ON THAT. SO YES IT IS POSSIBLE A BATCH OF SNOW/SLEET WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST ZONES...WHICH WILL
NECESSITATE EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 9 PM OR SO.
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES...THE ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE CONTINUES AS WELL. THE HEAVIER AND ACCUMULATING FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT RADAR SHOWS ONE MORE
BATCH OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. WILL LIKELY CLEAR A FEW SOUTHEASTERN MOST
COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY...BUT BELL AND MCLENNAN
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL SHUT DOWN RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE AREA EARLY TO MID EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
ATTEMPT TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT THIS CLEARING WILL LOSE
ITS GUSTO AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE FAIRLY STOUT EAST OF
I-35. IN AREAS WHERE IT CLEARS...CONTINUED TOP DOWN DRYING VIA
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS MAY ALLOW
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...FOG IF IT BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH WOULD RESULT IN SOME ICE
ACCRETION. SINCE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 5 MPH...IT MAY BE
TOO WINDY FOR THIS FOG TO BECOME DENSE ENOUGH FOR A FREEZING FOG
RISK. WILL NOT FORECAST FREEZING FOG YET...AND THE OVERNIGHT
SHIFT CAN WATCH THE TRENDS CLOSELY.
ASIDE FROM MORNING FOG...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. ANOTHER
COOL AND TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL DATA IS
SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS FOR DENSE FOG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-20. AGAIN THERE IS A CONCERN THAT WITH TEMPS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...FREEZING FOG COULD OCCUR.
ON SUNDAY THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH A FOGGY
START ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND
MIDDAY THERE...THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY CHILLY.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS MEANS
TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPS TUMBLING BACK INTO THE 30S.
THE SUNDAY FRONT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW INITIALLY WITH NEARLY
SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT UP AND OVER THE COLD
DOME. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING...THIS
DRIZZLE WOULD POSE A LIGHT ICING RISK. THE FRONTAL LAYER WILL
DEEPEN AND DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DRIZZLE OR
RAIN CHANCES LIKELY ENDING. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY MORNING THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FORECAST OF
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK. THE FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND THAT SUPPORTS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS
FORECASTING THE PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN A COLD RAIN. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
WINTER MIX. RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR
WINTER STORM...BUT ANY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP WILL CAUSE SOME ISSUES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...RAPID DRYING AND WARMING WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO
SHIFT NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE JET
STREAM SHOULD MOVE FARTHER NORTH AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC INTENSIFIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO
TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. FOR NORTH TEXAS WE WILL LIKELY
SEE FREQUENT MID-FEBRUARY PACIFIC FRONTS...BUT UNFORTUNATELY
RIDGING EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE SONORA DESERT WILL PUT US IN A
DRIER FLOW ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 27 55 33 58 31 / 10 0 0 10 10
WACO, TX 26 64 37 70 36 / 10 0 0 10 10
PARIS, TX 26 49 30 55 35 / 10 0 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 25 50 29 53 30 / 10 0 0 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 25 51 29 55 31 / 10 0 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 28 55 35 59 31 / 10 0 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 27 55 33 61 33 / 10 0 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 28 59 38 65 36 / 10 0 0 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 26 64 39 72 37 / 10 0 0 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 24 56 31 56 30 / 5 0 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1116 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CHALLENGES OVERNIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE EAST WILL
BE TOP DOWN DRYING WITH SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTING
AND A LIGHT SSE WINDS. HRRR AND NAM12 BOTH HIT ON SOME FG/FZFG
POTENTIAL WEST OF I-35 BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE CHALLENGE IS WILL
THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOUTH WINDS STAYING UP AROUND
5 KTS BE ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBYS UP. HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD HERE AND WILL INTRODUCE IFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT KEEP VSBYS 2-3
SM ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS AROUND MORNING WITH THE THOUGH ANY DENSE
FZFG MORE OF A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE SHALLOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO MVFR BY MID MORNING AS WAA ENSUES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THE WAA SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX OUT CIGS FOR
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS BY 18Z/AFTER.
TOMORROW NIGHT IT APPEARS BETTER FOR FG WITH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
VERY SHALLOW WITH CONTINUED WAA OVER THE TOP. LESS CLOUDS AROUND
WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WINDS TO DROP TO LESS THAN 5
KTS AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM AS
SCHEDULED. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SWINGING EAST
ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE RADAR INDICATES PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE WILL STILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF
FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.
THE NEXT THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND CLOUDS ERODE FROM
WEST TO EAST. FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH PATCHY FOG...FEELING THAT
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WILL MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF FOG DOES BECOME MORE DENSE OR
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...WE WOULD NEED TO CONSIDER A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS AFFECTED. HOPEFULLY FOG WILL REMAIN
PATCHY AND LIGHT...BUT STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES A WE HEAD
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A BAND OF SNOWFALL
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES TODAY AND
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST. SO FAR MEASURABLE
SNOW HAS BEEN CONFINED THE REGION FROM OLNEY TO BOWIE TO
SHERMAN...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW NOT
SEEING MUCH OF ANYTHING. WE MAY CANCEL A FEW OF THESE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE DRY
SLOT THAT WILL BE ROTATING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHORTLY.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX...THE STRONG
FORCING IS SQUEEZING OUT A FEW SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES/SLEET
PELLETS...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS VERY
LIGHT ACTIVITY.
SOME SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AVAILABLE FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHEAST ZONES BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM...BUT SINCE AGREEMENT IS
POOR THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EITHER CANCEL THE ADVISORY
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES EARLY OR EXTEND IT THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM.
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 6 PM AND WATCH TRENDS TO MAKE
THE CALL ON THAT. SO YES IT IS POSSIBLE A BATCH OF SNOW/SLEET WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST ZONES...WHICH WILL
NECESSITATE EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 9 PM OR SO.
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES...THE ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE CONTINUES AS WELL. THE HEAVIER AND ACCUMULATING FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT RADAR SHOWS ONE MORE
BATCH OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. WILL LIKELY CLEAR A FEW SOUTHEASTERN MOST
COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY...BUT BELL AND MCLENNAN
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL SHUT DOWN RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE AREA EARLY TO MID EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
ATTEMPT TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT THIS CLEARING WILL LOSE
ITS GUSTO AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE FAIRLY STOUT EAST OF
I-35. IN AREAS WHERE IT CLEARS...CONTINUED TOP DOWN DRYING VIA
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS MAY ALLOW
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...FOG IF IT BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH WOULD RESULT IN SOME ICE
ACCRETION. SINCE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 5 MPH...IT MAY BE
TOO WINDY FOR THIS FOG TO BECOME DENSE ENOUGH FOR A FREEZING FOG
RISK. WILL NOT FORECAST FREEZING FOG YET...AND THE OVERNIGHT
SHIFT CAN WATCH THE TRENDS CLOSELY.
ASIDE FROM MORNING FOG...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. ANOTHER
COOL AND TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL DATA IS
SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS FOR DENSE FOG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-20. AGAIN THERE IS A CONCERN THAT WITH TEMPS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...FREEZING FOG COULD OCCUR.
ON SUNDAY THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH A FOGGY
START ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND
MIDDAY THERE...THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY CHILLY.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS MEANS
TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPS TUMBLING BACK INTO THE 30S.
THE SUNDAY FRONT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW INITIALLY WITH NEARLY
SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT UP AND OVER THE COLD
DOME. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING...THIS
DRIZZLE WOULD POSE A LIGHT ICING RISK. THE FRONTAL LAYER WILL
DEEPEN AND DRY OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DRIZZLE OR
RAIN CHANCES LIKELY ENDING. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY MORNING THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FORECAST OF
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK. THE FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND THAT SUPPORTS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS
FORECASTING THE PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN A COLD RAIN. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
WINTER MIX. RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR
WINTER STORM...BUT ANY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP WILL CAUSE SOME ISSUES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...RAPID DRYING AND WARMING WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO
SHIFT NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE JET
STREAM SHOULD MOVE FARTHER NORTH AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC INTENSIFIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO
TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. FOR NORTH TEXAS WE WILL LIKELY
SEE FREQUENT MID-FEBRUARY PACIFIC FRONTS...BUT UNFORTUNATELY
RIDGING EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE SONORA DESERT WILL PUT US IN A
DRIER FLOW ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 27 55 33 58 31 / 10 0 0 10 10
WACO, TX 26 64 37 70 36 / 10 0 0 10 10
PARIS, TX 26 49 30 55 35 / 10 0 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 25 50 29 53 30 / 10 0 0 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 25 51 29 55 31 / 10 0 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 28 55 35 59 31 / 10 0 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 27 55 33 61 33 / 10 0 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 28 59 38 65 36 / 10 0 0 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 26 64 39 72 37 / 10 0 0 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 24 56 31 56 30 / 5 0 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
846 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...SOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME THE FOCUS OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM SUNDAY...
PUSH OF COLDER AIR SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW...
WITH UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RR QUAD OF JET. BELIEVE
THIS BOOST OF ENERGY WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FOR
THE WRN SLOPES AND WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT TO INDICATE THIS. STILL
BELIEVE IT TO BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT SO JUST A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL.
ALSO BUMPED WINDS UP A BIT EARLY ON...BUT THEY WILL BE SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT.
...PREVIOUS AFD...
FOR MONDAY...FORECAST HAS FLIPPED FROM DRY TO WET...ESP AREAS
SOUTH OF 460. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE SHOW YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY.
THIS SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MTNS MONDAY
MORNING. NARROW RIBBON OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA
IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF VIRGINIA ROUTE 460...OR SOUTH OF A
BLF-ROA-LYH LINE...IMPACTING OUR VA/NC BORDER COUNTIES. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING ABOUT A TENTH /0.10/ OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH TRANSLATES TO ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW IF IT
ALL CAN STICK. FAIRLY CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
OF NC AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY WILL BE
PLENTY COLD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS SHOULD ADHERE TO THE
SURFACE. EAST OF THE MTNS...NOT AS CONFIDENT...ESP SINCE
TEMPERATURES REACHED 50 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIP EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY FALL AS WHITE RAIN...SNOW THAT MELTS ON
CONTACT. THAT SAID...FORECAST WILL REFLECT 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...TRENDING TO AN INCH OR LESS
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BEST LIFT FOR PRECIP PRODUCTION
MOVES THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 12-16Z (7-11AM) THEN ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FROM 16-21Z (11AM-5PM). AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LITTLE OR
NO THREAT OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
TEMPERED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP IN THE AREA. DON`T
FORESEE THEM GETTING OUT OF THE 30S...WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
REMAINING IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SUNDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING...TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT COLD. AT THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
STALLED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...NOW BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
ATTENTION AS ENERGY FROM THE WEST COAST CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THEN BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND THE DEEP
SOUTH...TRANSLATING INTO A COASTAL STORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTION WITH
REGARDS TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM AND IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. AS NEIGHBORING OFFICE GSP
POINTED OUT SUCCINCTLY...THE CIPS ANALOG SHOWS THAT THE BEST DATE
MATCH FOR THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREDICTED
WEDNESDAY...LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION
DEPICTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF. ALTHOUGH FORECASTERS TYPICALLY LIKE TO
SEE EVERY MODEL SHOWING A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR IMPACTFUL
STORMS...THE CONSISTENCY AND SKILL OF THE ECMWF AND THE CLUES FROM
THE CIPS ANALOG SITE VERY WELL MAY TRUMP THAT NEED. THE STRUGGLES
OF THE GFS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND THE POOR PERFORMANCE
OF THE NAM AT 78-84 HRS CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED. MANY OF THE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ARE IN
PLACE...CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN SE
CANADA...WHICH SLOWS SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
PHASING AND/OR EVENTUAL NEGATIVE TILT...AND A STRONG WEDGING
SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE BEFORE THE PRECIP SHIELD
ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF NEW ENGLAND
LATER WEDNESDAY...BY THAT TIME THE WEDGE WILL BE OF AN IN SITU
VARIETY...WITH A COLD ENOUGH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOCKED IN TO
KEEP AN ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING JUST BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN ICE STORM EARLIER THIS SEASON...THIS IS PROBABLY
THE STRONGEST SIGNAL WE`VE SEEN ALL WINTER THIS MANY DAYS
AWAY...WITH REGARDS TO AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM. STILL
THOUGH...NEED TO SEE THIS EVENT FULLY MOVE INTO THE 72 HR WINDOW
BEFORE TURNING THE FORECAST STRONGLY TOWARDS A WINTER STORM.
WEDNESDAY WOULD SEEM TO BE THE DAY THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WITH A SHOT OF SUB -10C H85 AIR MAY ARRIVE DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW SEEMS TO QUICKLY TURN MORE
ZONAL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST ALLOWING FOR QUICK WAA TO CLOSE
NEXT WEEKEND. SOME UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SE WEST VA
BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THURSDAY ALSO APPEARS TO BE A
CALMER DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 731 PM EST SUNDAY...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO IFR CIGS AT BLF AS SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ENDING. IFR CIGS AT BLF MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST. FURTHER NORTH...LWB SHOULD AT LEAST HOLD
ONTO CURRENT MVFR CIG TOO.
GFS AND NAM 12Z RUNS ARE BOTH ADVERTISING SOME PRECIP RUNNING ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SHOWS LIGHT SNOW IN DAN AS EARLY AS 16Z AND CIGS MAY AT LEAST FALL
TO MVFR WHEN THE SNOW BEGINS TOMORROW MORNING AT DAN. LIGHT SNOW
MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEINGS STRETCHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY.
MODELS STILL ADVERTISING POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FROM OUR GENERAL
AREA SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST TUE-THU WITH A STRONGER LOW FORMING
ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME SNOW WOULD BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE
OVER OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLY RAIN MIXING IN AT DAN. THERE COULD BE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY TO THE LOW
TRACK...STAY TUNED...BUT TRAVEL BY AIR OVERALL DOES NO LOOK
FAVORABLE MIDWEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...KM/PM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...CF/KM/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1137 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO CUTTING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF COLDER AIR...INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST FRIDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO FILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. 18Z WRF...LATEST RUC AND
LATEST HRRR DO NOT HAVE THE SNOW BEGINNING IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL AFTER 08Z/3AM AND SPREADING AT LEAST AS
FAR EAST AS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND NEW RIVER VALLEY BY 7AM.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BEFORE 7AM WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BASED ON
9PM OBSERVATIONS AND GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE.
AS OF 304 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS RATHER CONSISTENT FROM LAST NIGHT`S RUN WITH REGARDS TO LIGHT
SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT AND PART OF SATURDAY MORNING. SOME CLOUDS
REMAINING THIS AFTERNOON HAS SERVED TO INCUBATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND NOT LET DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BECOME TOO LARGE. THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH VIRGA/QPF IS NEEDED TO
SATURATE THE LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...AND HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY
MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL BE MORE MOIST
SO THIS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. NONETHELESS...WITH ONLY
BETWEEN 0.02" AND 0.10" OF LIQUID FORECAST...IT MAY ONLY MEAN THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TRACE OF ACCUM AND A HALF INCH MOST SPOTS.
GROUND IS NOT SUPER COLD SO THAT MOST OF THE SNOW MAY IN FACT MELT
ALONG THE ROADS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...RESERVING
MOST LIGHT ACCUMS TO THE GRASS.
STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A SPLIT BETWEEN THE MOISTURE THAT IS NW
OF THE COASTAL LOW...AND THE SNOW THAT IS PRODUCED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. COULD SEE PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND SW VA
FALLING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF PRECIP...AND JUST ENDING UP
WITH FLURRIES. THAT AREA IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT...SO WE WILL JUST GO
WITH A FEW TENTHS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
MORE RECENTLY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TARGETING THE VA
PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH REGION FOR JUST UNDER A TENTH OF
LIQUID TOMORROW MORNING...AND THIS COULD PUT DOWN A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME
TOTAL 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ABOVE
3000 FEET.
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS QUICKLY AND WITH WIDESPREAD SINKING MOTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE MET LATE AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIP AROUND SATURDAY MORNING...WENT
WITH A SLOWER RISE IN TEMPS THAN DIURNAL WOULD SUGGEST FOR THAT
PART OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SE WEST VA THROUGH
AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE FLOW GETTING UNDERWAY LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...
WITH START SATURDAY NIGHT OFF WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY DRAW
ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...
HOWEVER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOT THE IDEAL WIND DIRECTION TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS AS THE FLOW RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
RIDGE LINES. MAY SEE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY AS
WIND FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER
OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ABOUT AN INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...TAPERING DOWN TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
IT DOES NOT TAKE LONG FOR WINDS TO BACK SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A SHORT
LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHERE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...UP TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.
SUNDAY EVENING IS THE POINT WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONCERNING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE GFS FORECAST MODEL IS FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...BRINGING IT
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE NAM AND THE ECMWF HANG
THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH...AND DRAG THE FRONT MORE SLOWLY ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. CONSIDERING THE NEARLY STRAIGHT
WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MORE INCLINED TO FOLLOW THE
NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALSO OPENS OUR AREA FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX FURTHER SOUTH. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY EVENING...AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP A HIGHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
TUESDAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS
A FURTHER SOUTH POSITION AND TRACK WITH THE LOW CENTER COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF. THE 00Z ECMWF STILL DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS PUSHES MOST OF THE
MOISTURE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ECMWF IS INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS STORM.
LEANED POPS TOWARDS HPCGUIDE SHAPED BY PREFERRED AVERAGE OF THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. TOO MUCH VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS WINTER
STORM TO WORK OUT EXACT DETAILS AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...COASTAL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START COLD AND SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEN...A COOLING TEND IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EST FRIDAY...
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOWER VFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
UNTIL AFTER 08Z/3AM AT KBLF AND KLWB.
EVENING SOUNDING AT RNK SHOWED THERE WAS STILL SOME DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
IFR CIG/VIS IN -SN THAT MOVES TO LWB/BLF BETWEEN 09Z/4AM AND
15Z/10AM. QPF IS MOST CONCENTRATED OVER LWB...SO THEY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF IFR CIG/VIS AND POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW.
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SOME OF IT
MAY DRY UP AND FAIL TO IMPACT BCB/ROA/LYH GREATLY. LOW CONFIDENCE
OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THESE SITES. DAN WILL BE
NEARER TO THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH BEGINNING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND WARMING TO ALLOW FOR RAIN MIXING
BY NOON AT DAN.
FOR ALL SITES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY MORNING
EVENT WITH SOME CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT LWB. CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT POSSIBLY
SPREADING SOME MVFR CIGS INTO LWB/BLF BY DAWN SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS
LWB/BLF. DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING EAST OF
THE MTNS WITH VFR BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE WAS RATHER
DIVERGENT ON HOW UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT
NEARBY OVER THE CAROLINAS...AND HOW FAR NORTH IT SPREADS WINTER
PRECIP INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND POSSIBLE IFR...IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS TRANQUIL BUT COLD WEATHER
BACK FOR TUESDAY...IT`S EVENTUAL POSITION OVER SE CANADA OR NEW
ENGLAND MAY PROVIDE A COLD DOME FOR WHICH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
IS ABLE TO OVERSPREAD NEXT WEDNESDAY....WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KM/RAB
NEAR TERM...AMS/KM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
355 PM PST Sun Feb 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will see a break in the prolonged stretch of
winter weather tonight however that will come to an end by Monday
as a strong warm front moves into the area. The warm front will
begin to scour the cold air out of the valleys but before another
round of light to moderate snow is dumped across much of the
region. More fronts will track the region during the week. Each
will deliver periods of precipitation...however the valleys will
finally change from snow to rain as temperatures climb above
freezing for the first time this month. Meanwhile...significant
snows are expected to fall over most of the mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Weather scenario for tonight will be markedly quieter
and drier than what we have experienced over the past several
nights. The latest satellite pictures continue to show a broad
plume of cloudiness covering most of the Inland Northwest save a
small portion of extreme NE Washington and the northern Panhandle
of Idaho. Meanwhile radar was only detecting a smattering of light
precipitation echoes over the SE corner of Washington and NC
Idaho. These echoes were the result of mid-level moisture and low-
level isentropic ascent combining for very light snow. The radar
echoes were finally reflecting what some of the model guidance was
showing...unlike earlier today. Both the NAM and HRRR were showing
this region of light precipitation persisting through mid-evening
before being shunted to the south. QPF amounts from this activity
should be very light with snowfall accumulations generally be an
inch or less. In most cases much less. Meanwhile the focus for the
later half of tonight will revolve around diffuse warm front
currently sweeping through SW Washington. This band of
precipitation will move into the northern Cascades before midnight
as it travels to the northeast. Not sure how far the precipitation
will cross over the Cascades as the isentropic ascent isn`t
terribly strong. Nonetheless we will raise precipitation chances
overnight for most of the Cascades and the Okanogan
Valley/Highlands. Once again precipitation amounts will remain
light. fx
Monday through Tuesday night...A very active and progressively wet
pattern will affect the region for the first part of the work week.
Two systems will impact the Inland Northwest with little evidence of
a break separating them. The first round of precipitation will start
Monday as a warm front spreads light snow across the forecast area.
Cold air will be in place at the surface but will eventually be
overrun by warm air in the mid levels being pushed into the area on
southerly flow. Initial light snow may change over to sleet or
freezing rain in the lower basin Monday evening. This threat will
spread north to the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area and Waterville
Plateau overnight. Warm air will eventually make it to the surface
across the southern valleys but p-type should remain snow for the
valleys north of I-90. We could see advisory snowfall amounts
accumulating for the east slopes of the Cascades and northeast
zones. The moisture plume is not as impressive as earlier advertised
with p-wats closer to normal for this first system so reaching
winter highlight criteria in the valleys is not a slam dunk. There
is not a true cold front with this system, but rather a wind shift
to the west that may bring a brief respite to the basin.
The second system follows right on the heels of the first and has a
much more impressive tap into deep Pacific moisture. QPF potential
will be in the 0.25 to 0.75 inches in the valleys with 1 to 2 inches
or even higher amounts in the mountains. The Palouse will see most
of this as rain. We will be watching local rivers carefully for
possible ice breakup and resultant flooding. The warm front will
push more warm air in from the south, changing precip over to rain
for the southern third of the forecast area Tuesday. Snow levels
will be on the rise and even the northernmost valleys could change
over to rain by Tuesday night. The mountain zones will likely
receive heavy snow from this extended event and the passes will be
affected. Winter highlights will likely be needed for portions of
the forecast area for this second system. Winds will strengthen
and become gusty starting Tuesday afternoon and continuing through
Wednesday. Warm air advection and gusty winds will aid in bringing
temperatures back up to normal readings and possibly above by
Tuesday night. /Kelch
Wednesday: Models still agree on a progressive unsettled weather
period through the remainder of the work week. Models are still
differing a bit on the details. Looks like a surface low coupled
with a wave riding along the westerly flow and a 120 kt upper
level jet streak will be moving through the Inland Northwest
Wednesday. Models do agree the heavier precipitation will fall
during the morning hours and by afternoon the heavier precip will
reside across the crest of the Cascade mountains and most of north
ID. This surface low is moving in from the southwest and will
therefore be ushering some slightly warmer temperatures. Warm
enough that most valley locations will not cool to below freezing
temps Wed morning...so the Wed event should be a rain event for a
pretty widespread area. The exception to this would be the
northern WA and ID valleys such as Omak, Republic, Colville and
Sandpoint where they could see wet snow before changing over to
rain sometime in the morning. The pressure gradient still looks
packed together to create south to west winds...mainly for
portions of the Columbia Basin, Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas.
Wednesday night through Thursday: Strong westerly flow prevails
which will keep showers in the forecast. There will be some dry
periods across portions of the Basin north through the Okanogan
Valley and Highlands because of downsloping off the Cascades.
Otherwise mostly cloudy with temperatures around average for this
time of the year. Southwest winds will remain elevated for the
Palouse and into portions of Spokane County.
Thursday night and Friday: We get an influx of moisture moving
into the area as a broad ridge builds over the Pac NW and a trough
moves towards southern Canada. The 12z EC as well as the 18Z GFS
have slowed the timing down a bit, but it looks as though sometime
Friday a front moves through. Currently models suggest some good
upslope flow into the Cascade valleys and Basin ahead of the front
Friday morning. Then by afternoon the Basin gets shadowed out as
the precipitation is more confined to eastern WA and north ID...and
the Cascade crest. Once again temps remain quite mild before the
front passes and so most valley locations should see rain. Once
again winds will be on the breezy side for portions of the Basin,
Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas. /Nisbet
Friday night through Sunday: A zonal flow pattern is expected to
keep this period pretty active. With a wave of precip exiting late
Friday, another wave is predicted to pass through the region
Saturday afternoon bringing another round of precip. There is a
slight warming trend with this pattern. Warmer temps could
generate a rain/snow mix for the lower Columbia Basin and some of
the valleys among the mountains if precip occurs during the day.
Snow is expected for the region for precip during the evening
hours. Winds will be breezy in the Palouse and Camas Prairie
regions with gusts around the mid 20s MPH. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Confidence is high that clouds will cover all forecast
sites through the period with MVFR cigs generally predominant at PUW
GEG SFF COE this evening. Higher cigs are expected at the other
sites. However beyond that...its hard to tell what will happen as a
several rounds of precipitation are poised to strike the area during
the next 24 hrs. The first round will occur this evening and only
impact LWS and possibly PUW. Any snow which falls will result in
brief IFR vsbys...and lowered cigs. This round will end around 03z
or so with another batch of light snow possible around 07z per the
HRRR model. This second round will generally form east of the
forecast points however it could briefly impact COE and PUW with IFR
vsbys. The final round will move into EAT first around 18z and
spread over the remaining sites after that. This batch of
precipitation will be the most widespread and heaviest one and will
generally deliver a good chance of IFR vsbys and possibly cigs to
all sites. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 29 27 36 33 38 / 20 70 50 70 80 80
Coeur d`Alene 19 31 28 36 32 38 / 30 80 60 80 90 80
Pullman 22 34 31 39 35 41 / 40 70 50 70 90 80
Lewiston 26 39 34 42 37 44 / 40 60 50 60 80 60
Colville 16 30 26 36 32 41 / 20 70 60 80 90 70
Sandpoint 18 30 27 35 32 38 / 30 80 80 80 100 90
Kellogg 20 31 29 35 32 37 / 80 80 80 80 100 90
Moses Lake 17 29 27 38 34 42 / 10 40 30 50 60 40
Wenatchee 20 29 26 38 32 39 / 10 60 40 50 60 40
Omak 18 30 22 35 30 39 / 20 60 40 60 60 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
921 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will spread light snow across far southern
Washington and the lower Idaho Panhandle tonight into Saturday morning.
There will be chances for wintry precipitation through much of
next week. Temperatures will moderate back to seasonal readings.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As low pressure system brings clouds and snow and passes quite
close to the southern edge of the forecast area the locations to
the north are still quite void of clouds and have a cold air mass
along with snow on the ground. This has caused the minimum
forecast temperatures for tonight to be complex, and as such have
updated again to cool them further north and this time the cooling
has impacted the zone wording enough to warrant an update.
Otherwise per most models and a number of recent HRRR model runs
the winter weather advisory highlighting the accumulating snow to
the south remains valid. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Low pressure system passage skirting across the southern
edge of the aviation area will impact KLWS and KPUW with snow
tonight into tomorrow producing IFR ceilings and visibilities while
most other aviation locations further north will likely not have
any snow from it but may have radiation fog and low stratus
primarily during the overnight and early morning hours. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 4 22 9 24 18 28 / 10 30 10 30 40 60
Coeur d`Alene -1 23 9 25 19 31 / 10 20 10 30 40 60
Pullman 13 24 14 28 22 32 / 20 70 20 40 50 60
Lewiston 16 30 22 33 28 37 / 70 80 40 40 40 50
Colville 1 27 9 28 17 33 / 10 10 10 20 30 60
Sandpoint 5 24 10 25 19 31 / 10 10 10 20 30 60
Kellogg 6 24 12 27 21 32 / 10 40 30 40 60 70
Moses Lake 9 25 14 26 18 30 / 20 50 20 20 30 40
Wenatchee 12 24 16 27 20 31 / 20 60 20 30 30 30
Omak 4 26 12 27 19 31 / 10 10 0 10 20 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Lewis and
Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Lower
Garfield and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
934 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND BRING LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE
HIGH SIERRA. IN ITS WAKE...PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY WITH RESIDUAL CLOUDS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DISTRICT
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE..
DECAYING MOISTURE PLUME IS SAGGING SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH VORT MAX NOTED NORTH OF SACRAMENTO. SHOWERS HAVE
INCREASED IN COVERAGE THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS A RESULT OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT WORKING ON A SATURATED CHUNK OF AIR. HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED USING IT AND SAT/RADAR
TRENDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT
BE THAT GREAT. BASED ON THAT...OPTED EARLIER TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AS ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WERE FURTHER
ADJUSTED DOWN...TO ABOUT 4-8 INCHES.
SPEAKING OF SNOW...WE QUERIED SNOTEL SITES EARLIER THIS EVENING AND
PUSHED OUT LSRS AND A PNS WITH THE ESTIMATED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE
STORM SO FAR. THE AMOUNTS WERE NOT THAT GREAT...GENERALLY 4-7
INCHES...DUE TO US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME BUT ALSO THE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE SNOTEL AT
11KFT EVEN BRIEFLY ROSE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE PAST DAY.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST
FOR THE NEXT 5-7 HOURS THEN QUICKLY DECREASE AS FOLKS WAKE UP
TOMORROW MORNING. WE/LL STILL HAVE SOME GOOD CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AS THE MOIST AIR GETS
BANKED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS S/E OF BAKERSFIELD. SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP SOME BUT NOT MUCH BELOW 7KFT SO NO TRAVEL CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PASSES FOR MONDAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PASSES AND INTO THE DESERTS IN
KERN COUNTY INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXISTING WIND ADVISORY COVERS THAT
WELL THOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO MONITOR IF WINDS DECAY AS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING.
INIGUEZ
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ISSUED 2PM SUNDAY
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE NIGHT)...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NW FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DENSE FOG FORMATION
IS PROBABLE IN THE SJ VLY WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AND
THIS COULD SLOW MORNING COMMUTERS TUESDAY WITH A RECURRENCE OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD INTO
CENTRAL CA WITH DRY WEATHER AND MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS
AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THU. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INCLUDING
FROM ANY RAIN THAT FALLS TONIGHT/MONDAY...WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG TO CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY NORTH OF
KERN COUNTY WED AM. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DUE TO MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE DRY FOR THIS PERIOD AS RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA...WHILE MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS PICKING UP IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SOME REDUCTION IN VIS AND LOWERING OF CIGS...THOUGH OVERALL DON/T
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW MVFR. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE
MONDAY MORNING/AFTER 19Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 02-09 71:2012 45:1923 56:1987 27:1891
KFAT 02-10 75:1961 44:1894 54:1916 29:1965
KFAT 02-11 73:1925 46:2001 53:1970 28:1948
KBFL 02-09 77:2012 42:1919 58:1975 24:1929
KBFL 02-10 79:1961 47:1967 54:1973 23:1929
KBFL 02-11 81:1925 45:1989 56:1925 20:1901
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR
THE CAZ096.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST MONDAY
CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC AND AVN/SHORT TERM...DURFEE
FIRE WEATHER/LONG TERM...INIGUEZ
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
443 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 02 UTC regional surface analysis showed a weak trough from the
Piedmont through Southeast AL, a 1020 mb high pressure system
centered in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and an approaching cold
front from the TN-GA border through central MS. Vapor imagery and
upper air data showed a broad, very shallow trough over much of
the eastern CONUS, with several minor impulses embedded in the
fast westerly flow. A potent trough was moving ashore CA, and this
system will help drive a potentially significant winter storm
across portions of the South (but not our area) mid week.
So far fog has been very spotty, but some of the NWP guidance
(mainly the HRRR) forecasts a little more fog development by dawn,
especially across North FL and South Central GA. Any fog that
develops should dissipate by mid to late morning. The
aforementioned cold front will limp into Southeast AL and
Southwest GA later this afternoon, with only slight rain chances
(and light QPF). Other than an increase in clouds, the front will
have little impact on our weather today. Highs will range from
about average (mid 60s) around Dothan and Albany, to slightly
above average in FL (lower 70s).
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The main issue for our local area through the short term will be
the track and strength of the approaching surface low which is
forecast to move through the area on Wednesday. Ahead of it,
increasing moisture and lift along a warm frontal boundary will
favor increased rain chances over the northwest half of the area
starting on Tuesday. This will gradually spread over the rest of
the area Tuesday night and especially Wednesday. There are some
model differences with respect to the track of the surface low
along the Gulf coast with the 10/00z GFS a southern outlier south
of Apalachicola and the 10/00z NAM much farther to the north
tracking through southern Georgia. This makes a difference for
thunderstorm chances in our area as a farther north track would
open part of the area to the warm sector and give an increased
risk for a stronger storm or two. The ECMWF sided more with the
NAM to the north, and the UKMET was a compromise between the
NAM/ECMWF and GFS, tracking near Apalachicola. We gave a slight
preference to the more northern tracks, but not quite as far north
as the NAM/ECMWF. This forecast would bring the warm sector just
inland from the coast, and as a result a mention of thunderstorms
was maintained in the forecast on Wednesday for coastal counties
as well as the marine area. Forecast shear values are rather
strong and there does appear to be a small sliver of SBCAPE in the
warm sector, so a stronger storm or two can`t be ruled out near
the coast if the warm sector penetrates inland. However, most
areas will just see a soaking rain. The high temperature forecast
on Wednesday is more uncertain than normal due to the different
low tracks and the extent to which the cold air damming north of
the area may sneak into some of our Georgia counties.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Strong shortwave will cross SE region Wed night into Thurs
strengthening low. By sunrise Thurs...this low has lifted well
Newd to Carolina coast dragging cold front to S/Cntrl FL. 30-60%
W-E POPS Wed night. Proximity of warm boundary and wrap around
moisture will keep small chance POPs east in forecast into Thus.
With enhanced wedge...some guidance shows temps approaching
freezing by sunrise at Nrn most sites so future shifts will
monitor for possible wintry mix mainly nrn most GA counties. In
its wake...Ern trough moves offshore and zonal flow reestablishes
itself by Fri night. At surface...high pressure builds in across
Gulf of Mex. Under light winds and clearing skies...sunrise temps
will approach freezing by sunrise Fri at the coldest locations. As
the high moves ESE...temps should rebound Fri into the weekend
with max temps reaching the 70s on Sat.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06z Tuesday] The main forecast challenge is fog potential.
The latest NWP/MOS guidance offer conflicting forecasts, while the
02 UTC HRRR forecasts fog development mainly at KVLD and KECP. This
run has actually initialized well so far and has been used more for
this forecast, while still maintaining some continuity with our
previous forecasts. We expect periods of IFR Vis at KVLD, KTLH, and
KECP, with possibly even VLIFR Vis at KVLD and KECP. VFR conditions
will return areawide by mid to late morning. By afternoon MVFR cigs
will develop at KDHN as a cold front moves into the region.
Although the PoP will increase over the next 24 hours, it was too
low to mention on this TAF package.
&&
.Marine...
Low winds and seas are expected to continue through Tuesday as the
pressure gradient remains weak. However, an area of low pressure
will move along the Gulf coast Tuesday night and Wednesday and
sweep a strong cold front through the area. Winds behind the
front are expected to increase to exercise caution levels late on
Wednesday with advisory level winds possible Wednesday night into
Thursday.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least Wednesday.
&&
.Hydrology...
The bulk of our next rain event will be Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday night. Storm total accumulations are currently projected
to range from around 0.75 inches across the southeast big bend to
just over 2 inches across the far northwest part of the area.
While such values could cause an increase in flow/stage levels,
flooding is not expected to be a significant concern.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 71 47 70 49 64 / 0 10 20 50 90
Panama City 65 52 65 51 63 / 10 30 40 70 90
Dothan 66 47 54 42 58 / 20 60 80 80 90
Albany 67 46 55 40 52 / 10 50 70 80 90
Valdosta 70 45 68 47 61 / 0 10 20 50 90
Cross City 71 43 74 51 70 / 0 0 10 20 70
Apalachicola 64 49 67 52 65 / 0 20 20 40 90
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
...Updated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
As the next upper tropospheric jet streak continues to approach
tonight, there will be an increase in the response in the 800-600mb
layer (particularly noted at 700mb) as an increase in deformation
and convergence along the slowly southward moving mid level
baroclinic zone. The latest runs of the HRRR are starting to line up
nicely with other mesoscale models and even coarser global models
with a west-northwest to east-southeast axis of light to moderate
snow. The zone of 700mb frontogenesis will only be strongest over
any one location for about 3 or 4 hours before quickly shifting off
to the east. The fast duration of the event alone will limit
potential accumulations, however during the height of the snowfall,
rates could be on the order of one-half to three-quarters inch per
hour. Placement of the heaviest snow band(s) is also still somewhat
in question, but feel pretty confident it (they) will ultimately lie
somewhere along/north of Highway 50 and south of Highway 4. The
winter weather advisory that was issued midday encompasses this
region of the forecast area for a general 1 to 3 inch accumulation.
Given the expected banded nature of the event and forward motion of
the frontogenesis somewhat parallel to band orientation, some
isolated amounts in excess of 3 inches will be possible. Global and
mesoscale models both show the meso-alpha scale frontogenesis
weakening toward daybreak as it shifts toward south-central Kansas,
so will be going with slightly lower amounts across the
Stafford-Pratt-Barber County zone. We went ahead and removed the
snow out of the forecast for the bulk of the day Monday except for
the very end of the day across far southwest Kansas. The rest of the
forecast was left unchanged as it appeared to be in pretty good
shape (regarding temperatures, wind, etc.)
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014
The extended forecast looks dry with an upper level ridge building
across the western US this week then shifting eastward to the Plains
this weekend. A series of upper level shortwave are progged to move
through the Northern Plains this week but look to only affect the
wind direction and a slight increase in clouds across western
Kansas. A downslope component of the wind is expected this week into
the weekend with winds meandering from the southwest to northwest as
the aforementioned upper level disturbances move through the
Northern Plains. A warming trend is expected during the extended
period with highs starting out Tuesday ranging from the upper 20s
across central Kansas to around 40 degrees across the KS/CO border
then warming into the upper 50s and lower 60s by this weekend. Lows
will start out Wednesday morning in the upper teens and lower 20s
increasing into the 30s by this weekend. One caveat with the
increased temperatures is how quickly the snowpack across the region
will melt. Any snowpack remaining by late this week could decrease
temperatures across that area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
An area of light snow will continue to propagate through western
and central Kansas through the early morning hours. During the
first few hours of this TAF period, look for MVFR to IFR ceilings
and IFR visibilities to prevail. The area of snow will be moving
out of western Kansas after 10z. Visibilities should improve into
the MVFR/VFR categories. MVFR ceilings and visibilities can be
expected, however there may be a period between 12z and 15z of
IFR visibilities in mist. Later in the period, we are expecting
ceilings to lower into the IFR category once again.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 16 6 30 20 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 18 8 33 21 / 10 20 0 0
EHA 24 14 40 26 / 20 30 10 0
LBL 21 10 35 22 / 20 20 10 0
HYS 13 2 28 20 / 20 10 0 0
P28 17 7 28 17 / 60 20 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-076>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1156 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
As the next upper tropospheric jet streak continues to approach
tonight, there will be an increase in the response in the 800-600mb
layer (particularly noted at 700mb) as an increase in deformation
and convergence along the slowly southward moving mid level
baroclinic zone. The latest runs of the HRRR are starting to line up
nicely with other mesoscale models and even coarser global models
with a west-northwest to east-southeast axis of light to moderate
snow. The zone of 700mb frontogenesis will only be strongest over
any one location for about 3 or 4 hours before quickly shifting off
to the east. The fast duration of the event alone will limit
potential accumulations, however during the height of the snowfall,
rates could be on the order of one-half to three-quarters inch per
hour. Placement of the heaviest snow band(s) is also still somewhat
in question, but feel pretty confident it (they) will ultimately lie
somewhere along/north of Highway 50 and south of Highway 4. The
winter weather advisory that was issued midday encompasses this
region of the forecast area for a general 1 to 3 inch accumulation.
Given the expected banded nature of the event and forward motion of
the frontogenesis somewhat parallel to band orientation, some
isolated amounts in excess of 3 inches will be possible. Global and
mesoscale models both show the meso-alpha scale frontogenesis
weakening toward daybreak as it shifts toward south-central Kansas,
so will be going with slightly lower amounts across the
Stafford-Pratt-Barber County zone. We went ahead and removed the
snow out of the forecast for the bulk of the day Monday except for
the very end of the day across far southwest Kansas. The rest of the
forecast was left unchanged as it appeared to be in pretty good
shape (regarding temperatures, wind, etc.)
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough moving
southeastward across the Western High Plains Monday night bringing
precip chances to the region very early in the period. As the
shortwave moves through, surface high pressure across the Upper
Midwest will provide a southeasterly upslope flow near the surface
while surface low pressure develops across New Mexico. This will
set up increased low level convergence across the panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma into portions of southwest Kansas. Although the
flow aloft will be less than favorable, enough low/mid level
forcing will be present, including the presence of some H7
frontogenetic banding, to support light snow development across
the panhandles with snow possibly reaching across the border into
southwest Kansas. Fairly light QPF signals and PW values down
around a quarter inch suggest minimal snow accumulations generally
less than one inch through Tuesday morning. Drier conditions are
then expected through the end of the week as weak upper level
ridging develops across the Intermountain West.
Temperatures will warm up Tuesday as surface high pressure departs
eastern Kansas to the east returning a southerly low level flow
to western Kansas. This will draw slightly warmer air northward
with H85 temperatures ranging from around 5C below across central
Kansas to near 0C in far southwest Kansas. Along with the help of
expected decreased cloud cover, look for highs well up into the
30s(F) Tuesday afternoon with near 40F possible in extreme
southwest Kansas. The warming trend continues into Wednesday with
widespread 40s(F) expected for highs with near 50F possible in far
southwest Kansas. Highs are likely to reach the 50s(F) to near 60F
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
An area of light snow will continue to propagate through western
and central Kansas through the early morning hours. During the
first few hours of this TAF period, look for MVFR to IFR ceilings
and IFR visibilities to prevail. The area of snow will be moving
out of western Kansas after 10z. Visibilities should improve into
the MVFR/VFR categories. MVFR ceilings and visibilities can be
expected, however there may be a period between 12z and 15z of
IFR visibilities in mist. Later in the period, we are expecting
ceilings to lower into the IFR category once again.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 8 16 4 32 / 80 20 20 0
GCK 8 18 6 34 / 80 10 20 0
EHA 12 24 12 40 / 30 20 30 10
LBL 12 21 8 36 / 40 20 20 10
HYS 5 13 0 30 / 60 20 10 0
P28 9 17 4 30 / 80 60 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Monday FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-076>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
445 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES COULD
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...VERY PERSISTENT SFC TROF HAS REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE. OCNL
BOUTS OF HEAVIER SNFL HAVE ROTATED INTO THE COAST BASED ON RADAR
OBS. HAVE UPDATED POP TO REFLECT THIS TREND CONTINUING THRU
12Z...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST FROM KPWM SWD TO JUST N OF
KENNEBUNK. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR THIS MORNING/S COMMUTE...AS THIS
SNFL WILL ALIGN ALONG TURNPIKE AND INTO KPWM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SNFL THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FOCUSED WITHIN
INVERTED SFC TROF...ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE NH/ME BORDER SEWD INTO
THE GULF OF ME. WLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT ISON3 AND
KPSM...QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NWLY AT BUOY 44030 AND WELLS
BEACH...AND NELY FROM KPWM NEWD UP THE COAST. THIS LLVL
CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED IN INTENSIFYING THE SNFL WITHIN THE WIND
SHIFT ZONE. STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST INVOF OF KPWM AND S FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. VERY RECENT
REPORT OF 3.5 INCHES AT KENNEBUNK CONFIRMS THAT A SMALL ZONE OF
3-4 INCH TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. A BLEND OF THE
NERFC...NAM12...AND HRRR QPF ACHIEVED AMOUNTS VERY CLOSE TO THIS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLD 5 INCH REPORT NEAR CAPE
ELIZABETH. SMALL AREAL EXTENT OF THESE HIGHER SNFL TOTALS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY.
WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ME THIS MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EWD. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN -SN FROM W TO
E. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY SLOWING
DOWN THE MORNING COMMUTE. AS WLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA....DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BREAK UP THE CLOUDS SE OF THE MTNS.
THIS SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20S SHOULD HELP THE ROAD
TREATMENT MELT ANY REMAINING SN ON THE ROADS THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CWFA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
THE ST. LAWRENCE. LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT OVER
THE MTNS WILL PRODUCE SOME SHSN THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST
PART OF TUE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
WITH HIGH PRES STILL BUILDING IN MON NIGHT...GRADIENT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT. EVEN A LIGHT BREEZE WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL COOLING. FEEL THE MAV IS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE BRINGING MIN
TEMPS TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA. INSTEAD CHOSE TO
BLEND THE WARMER MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE...AS BEST POTENTIAL COLD LOOKS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN.
THIS INCONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO YIELD A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
FOR THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EURO AND NAM CAMPS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT BY HUGGING THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE CANADIAN
THEN BECOMES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND THE GFS
WHICH IS WELL OFFSHORE.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO AWAIT THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR IMPROVED RAOB SAMPLING IN AND AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR
AN IMPROVED CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN ANY CASE...THERE COULD BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST IF WARMER AIR MAKES IT INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MAINE/NEW
HAMPSHIRE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS FROM W TO E THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM KPWM
AND NEWD. WLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE MTNS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHSN
GOING INVOF KHIE INTO TUE...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO LIFR AND IFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS BRIEFLY
THIS MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ME. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN TUE.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
435 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING STALLED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THAT FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES FROM NEAR THE GULF COAST
TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS PLACES SFC CD FRONT ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WALLOPS TO AKQ TO AHOSKIE NC. SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN MISSOURI VALLEY.
MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE DAY WILL BE WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES S OF THE FA, AS A COLDER AIRMASS
SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE RGN FM THE NNW. WEAKENING/SHEARING S/W ALOFT
WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING INTO ERY
AFTN WITH VERY WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE W/SW.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT MUCH OF LIFT REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT
LATEST RAP DOES DEPICT ENOUGH LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SNEAK OUT A FEW
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE BEST LIFT SHUNTS SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SN...THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A MIX
OF RA/SN ALG SRN EDGE OF PCPN IN COASTAL NE NC. OTW...MCLDY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH...CLDY S. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HI TEMPS TO
BE ACHIEVED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...RANGING FROM THE L/M30S N
(HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 FAR NORTH)...TO M/U30S
S. COULD PICK UP A QUICK DUSTING ON GRASSY SFCS OVER SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE AREA.
SFC HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK TO THE SOUTH. QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE,
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH, MID 20S TO NEAR 30 CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES WELL TO THE NR THE GULF COAST BY 12Z TUE
MRNG...AS SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THERE MAY SOME INCRS IN CLDNS ACRS FAR
SRN VA/NE NC TUE AFTN...OTRW PCLDY AND COLD WX XPCD TUE AS WEAK
CAD STRUCTURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M30S N...TO THE
M/U30S S.
MDLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDWEEK. A ECMWF/UKMET/GGEM
BLEND HAS BEEN USED FOR THIS SYSTEM. OVERALL, LOW PRES IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUE NGT...EVENTUALLY
TRACKING E-NE TO A POSITION NR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY WED.
MOISTURE WILL BE GATHERING S OF THE FA DURING THAT PD...SPREADING
GRADUALLY NNE. THE PREFERRED BLENDED FORECAST TAKES SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MIDDAY WED ALONG THE
NC/VA COASTAL PLAIN TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY THURSDAY MORNING. BY
CONTRAST, THE 00Z/10 GFS CONTINUES WITH A BIT OF A DIFFERENT
SOLUTION...TAKING THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW NEAR CHS WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH
THIS LOW SLIDING OFFSHORE THROUGH THU MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS, CONTINUE TO BELIEVE GFS IS TRENDING
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED CONSENSUS SOLN. IN A
YEAR OF SEVERAL `ATYPICAL` MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEMS...CIPS ANALOGS AND
MODEL CONSENSUS ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL MIXED
BAG TYPE SOLUTION FOR THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ALL MDLS
SHOW COLD SFC HI PRES AREA RETREATING THROUGH NEW ENG (AND TO THE
NE). TRIED HARD TO LEAVE SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE FORECAST WITH SO
MANY QUESTIONS LEFT TO BE ANSWERED (A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY AND
MDL AGREEMENT IS NEEDED AND THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THAT). STILL,
ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM TO WARRANT POPS BEING
SHUNTED INTO LIKELY RANGE WED NGT/THU. HIGHEST POPS RIGHT NOW WILL
BE CONFINED TO SRN PORTIONS TUE NGT (SN)...AND SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS ON WED (SN EVENTUALLY BECOMING MIXED PHASE PTYPE).
CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE THE LONGEST OVER THE PIEDMONT...IF IT OCCURS
AT ALL.IT IS THIS AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL HEADLINES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PACKAGES.
FOR TEMPS, RODE THE LOWER ENVELOP OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE TEENS TO ARND 20F N AND NW...W/
M20S TO ARND 30F SE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L30S NW TO L40S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ENERGY
PHASING INTO A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF STATES LATE WEDS INTO
THURS. STRONG SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...EJECTING THE FEATURE NEWD THURS MORNING. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL BE ONGOING TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. SFC LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS WED NIGHT INTO THURS
MORNING. BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE IN STRONGEST
RETURN FLOW...BUT EXPECT MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO GO ALONG
WITH UVM PROVIDED BY INCREASING FLOW ALOFT (DIVERGENCE) AND HEIGHT
FALLS (SHORTWAVE). HAVE INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WED NIGHT-THURS MORNING AS CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.
WHILE THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE IS WARMER THAN ITS GFS
COUNTERPART...A BLEND OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REVEAL A MIXED BAG OF
PTYPES OVER THE REGION. TO BACK UP WARMER GUIDANCE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NE COAST (RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW) AS
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT-THURS
MORNING (TEMPS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL). EXPECT THE COAST TO
REMAIN RAIN WHILE INLAND WILL TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN-SNOW WITH
SOME SLEET TO ALL RAIN BY THURS AFTERNOON. STILL TO EARLY TO
DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WEDS-WEDS
NIGHT WILL LIKELY MELT THURS. SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND LIFT
NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE THURS...ALLOWING PRECIP TO COME TO AN
END OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
A WINTRY MIX OVER THE NE THRU THURS NIGHT. CAA LIKELY ARRIVES TO
LATE TO POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS INDICATED IN THE
ECMWF. WPC QPF FORECAST FROM OVER AN INCH SE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH
NW FROM WEDS MORNING THRU FRI MORNING. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE 40S THURS AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP PREVENT TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THEREAFTER...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL NRN STREAM ENERGY IMPACTS
THE EAST. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE ERN SEABOARD
FRI-SAT...LIKELY PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...AS IT TYPICAL WITH NRN STREAM
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL ALSO REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NW TO LOW-MID 50S SE FRI-SUN.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
MID 30S SE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING DESPITE THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
SYSTEM LACKS MOISTURE LEAVING MOST OF THE CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K TO 6K
FT. BEHIND THE FRONT...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES
TO CLEAR THE SKY BRIEFLY.
HOWEVER...THE WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SEND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.
ANOTHER OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOK DRY SO EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO A LOW CHANCE...BUT IF IT DOES
FROM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WOULD BE ORF/ECG...WHERE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY IF THE PCPN FORMS.
AFTER 2Z...THE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE CLEARED THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO INVADE TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION/POOR
AVIATION CONDITIONS DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWLY SLID SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT..CLEARING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GETTING DOWN JUST NORTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER THIS MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE
WINDS A LITTLE THIS MORNING...DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. AT
THIS TIME...LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 8Z AND 9Z...ARE NOT
SHOWING A STRONG INCREASE AT THIS TIME. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION STILL MOVING IN...EXPECT
TO SEE SOME LOW END SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR WINDS.
THE SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO CALM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUT NOT CERTAIN THEY WILL STAY UP AS LONG A CURRENT COASTAL
ADVISORIES INDICATE. BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ADVISORIES WITH CURRENT
TIMING...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
CONDITIONS DO BEGIN TO IMPROVED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD LIGHTER WINDS...BUT WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE TO THE
NE...COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE SWELL BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY FROM WED INTO THURSDAY AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WOULD COMBINE WITH A RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND TO GREATLY INCREASE THE WINDS AND THE SEAS. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW AND WOULD
LIKELY LEAD TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER
TO THE WEST AND THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG...BUT THE PERSISTENT NE
FLOW WILL LIKELY STILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FT. SO FOR
NOW...HAVE INCREASE THE SEAS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT INCREASES THE WINDS AS AN OFF SHORE TRACK
WOULD LEAD TO WINDS NEAR WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT WOULD STILL
SUPPORT THE INCREASED SEAS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ630>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...SAM/WRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
253 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
GO FIGURE! NORTHERN LAKES ONCE AGAIN WELCOMING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WITH HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING
-20C H8 TEMPERATURE PUSHING INTO OUR AREA...AND EVEN COLDER READINGS
JUST UPSTREAM (MID -20S H8 OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR).
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT JUST AS COLD...ESPECIALLY UPWIND OF THE
BIG PONDS...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON THE BAD SIDE
OF ZERO ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ONTARIO. COLD AIR AND WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOING THEIR BEST TO DRUM UP SOME RESPECTABLE LAKE RESPONSE.
LAKE ICE SAYS OTHERWISE...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY...WITH EMPHASIS
PLACED ON LAKE SNOW...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
LAKE SNOWS SET TO CONTINUE TODAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES
ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN
BACKGROUND MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. FLOW ESSENTIALLY
REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS MENTIONED FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...LAKE
ICE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK BOTH SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER NOW RELEGATED TO AN
AREA WEST OF LEELANAU PENINSULA AND POINTS SOUTH (EVEN
HERE...EARLIER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF FLOATING ICE).
COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND H8 INVERSION LEVELS WILL FURTHER
NEGATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY. UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
NORTH...LAKE SUPERIOR ALL BUT FROZEN...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED OPEN
POCKETS OF WATER...SUGGESTING JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING SUN WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DAYTIME EXPANSION
TO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT NO BIG DEAL
FOR SURE. BIGGER STORY TODAY LIKELY TO BE THE TEMPERATURES...WITH
PERSISTENT CAA AND LIMITED LAKE MODIFICATION KEEPING MANY AREAS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. WINDS DON`T GET TOO OUT OF
HAND...BUT ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILL READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO (BUT SHORT OF ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA).
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS TAKING THEIR
COLLECTIVE TOLL ON LAKE PROCESSES HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY...AND ONE STRICTLY BASED OFF
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS GOING CALM/LIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH DECAYING LAKE PROCESSES AND LIGHT
WINDS...FEEL AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND INTERIOR UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS...ALLOWING READINGS TO TANK. WILL
CONTINUE TREND SET FORTH BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS...UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES. WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS
(-20?) EXPECTED WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOWS A TOUCH "WARMER"
ELSEWHERE...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
SOMEWHAT LENGTHY PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN IT/S WAKE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REBOUND...TUE AND TUE NIGHT STILL
LOOK QUITE COLD. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS ON A SLIGHT UPWARD
SWING...BUT ALONG WITH THAT COME SOME CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW.
PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TUESDAY...AT THE START OF THE DAY...WEAK (5-10KT) NW 1000-85MB FLOW
IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY EAST OF
LAKE HURON...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER MINUS TEENS. THOSE WINDS
WILL BACK SW OVER LAKE MI AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z...AND WILL BE
SSW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI BY 00Z. BY THEN...850MB TEMPS WILL
HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER MINUS TEENS. HOWEVER...VERY COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BELOW THAT...WITH 925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER
MINUS TEENS EVEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WON/T PLAY OUT HERE ON TERRA FIRMA. ONCE AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SHSN IN THE MORNING...BUT AS THE COLD AIR GETS SHALLOWER THAT
SHOULD SEGUE INTO JUST FLURRIES IN THE PM IN THE SW FLOW REGIME.
TUE NIGHT/WED...LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THRU THESE PERIODS...OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY WORKS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON. THE SW FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY...BUT A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS IOWA/WI/UPPER MI
TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF FADING OUT...THE PRE-FRONTAL
WILL TEND TO DO LIKEWISE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MI.
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR BELOW 800MB WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FOR TUE NIGHT...CHANCY POPS CAN
BE CONFINED TO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES VERY LATE. PRECIP SHOULD
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH AND MOMENTUM TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS IN
EASTERN UPPER WED MORNING (ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OR SO)...WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN MI...AND NO PRECIP
SE OF AN HTL-APN LINE.
PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR CLEARING AWAY FROM LAKE MI TUE NIGHT...BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE VERY LATE. SO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SUB-ZERO MINS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS
CLOSER TO LAKE MI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
20F...WITH A SOMEWHAT BRISK S TO SW WIND.
REST OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN 1000-850MB
WINDS AND TEMP ADVECTION WED NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT DIES
OVERHEAD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ON TIMING A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPPER MI.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL OF COURSE HINDERED BY A LACK OF OPEN WATER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN MAX TEMPS NEED TO A
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO. BACK INTO THE TEENS THRU THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN (TVC AND
MBL) TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR IS REINFORCED IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THRU
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
342 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
Another band of snow is moving across southwest Missouri this
morning. The band looks to be associated with a subtle shortwave
headed east-southeast through Kansas into western Missouri at this
time. RAP is showing some weak to moderate low level frontogenesis
over southwest Missouri and the left exit region of an upper level
jet streak is likely adding some divergence aloft to aid in lift.
These features all wash out by mid morning. Still think we could
see a dusting across our far southern counties before the band falls
apart. Elsewhere and otherwise...a 1035mb high is building across
the Midwest bringing another surge of Arctic air. Should see
decreasing clouds this afternoon...but with cold advection
continuing went near or just below coldest guidance numbers across
the area. Wind chill advisory still looks to be in good shape so
will let it continue as is. Will see a clear or mostly clear sky
tonight as the under the influence of the Arctic high. There may be
some mid/high clouds to contend with, but for the most part there
should be excellent radiational cooling conditions...especially over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois closest to the center
of the high where the wind will be light and variable or calm.
Generally undercut guidance by a few degrees everywhere, but went 5
to 6 degrees colder up north. If there`s any wind whatsoever we
might need another wind chill advisory tonight up north, but will
let the day shift make that determination.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
After the cold start Tuesday morning we`ll be hard pressed to
break out of the teens and lower 20s Tuesday afternoon. Another
trof of low pressure will dip into the Midwest Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. While the shortwave looks pretty stout,
it looks like moisture will be lacking, so have stuck with only
slight chance pops. Increasing clouds and southerly flow should
keep temperatures up a little in relation to Tuesday morning`s
lows. Still, stuck pretty close to the coldest guidance for
Wednesday morning lows.
Temperatures still look to moderate for the latter half of the week
with highs Wednesday near or even a bit above freezing, especially
across the eastern Ozarks down the I-44 corridor. Stout
south-southwest flow on Thursday south of a clipper which will move
across the Upper Midwest should push temperatures into the upper 30s
to mid 40s. The cold front associated with the clipper will sweep
through the area Thursday night, providing a brief cool down
primarily for the northern half of the CWFA on Friday. Southerly
flow is reestablished Saturday ahead of another clipper keeping
temps up mainly in the 40s. Some timing differences in the medium
range models on when the clipper will pass and how much cold
advection there will be behind it for Sunday. For now have stuck
pretty close to guidance which keeps temps in the 40s.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
VFR conditions expected to continue thru the forecast period.
Winds will remain nly around 10 kts or less.
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
RECORD MINS AND LOW MAXES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
STL COU UIN
RECORD MINS 2/10 -9/1982 -12/1899 -10/1982
2/11 -9/1899 -21/1899 -12/1981
LO MAXES 2/10 7/1889 4/1899 8/1936
2/11 5/1981 1/1899 1/1981
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 13 -1 19 10 / 5 0 0 0
Quincy 8 -11 13 5 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 13 -2 19 11 / 5 5 0 0
Jefferson City 16 0 21 9 / 5 5 0 0
Salem 15 1 19 9 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 18 1 22 8 / 20 5 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1139 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Have raised PoPs over the far southwestern portion of the CWA for
late tonight to just after sunrise. Area of snow over KS is handled
best by the latest RAP and GFS while NAM is a tad too far south.
Radar trends/trajectories also support the slightly more northern
track of the RAP and GFS, taking the snow through west central MO,
possibly just grazing the far southwest part of the KC Metro.
Slightly higher than average snow ratios could yield around half an
inch of snow over the far southwestern counties.
UPDATE Issued at 940 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
The colder/drier arctic air is undercutting the fairly extensive mid
cloud deck and oozing south through the CWA. Dewpoints have already
fallen below zero over the far northeastern part of the CWA. The next
shortwave progged to streak out of CO tonight will have to battle
the southward surge of drier air. 00z models are tracking this
feature and its elongated jet streak a bit further south. As such
believe any measurable snow poses a threat to mainly the far
southwestern counties. So have chipped away at the northern extent
of PoPs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Tonight - Tomorrow:
An area of strong but mostly transient frontogenesis in roughly the
750 to 650 mb layer has led TO a quick inch+ of snow across eastern
Kansas and western through central Missouri. This all is associated
with a fast moving upper shortwave trough currently moving through
the Central Plains. This wave is expected to track east of the area
tonight but it will continue to lead to A strong baroclinic region
across the area. Additionally, modest Q-vector divergence associated
with the right rear quadrant of the upper level jet will ensure that
light snow continues along the baroclinic band through the night.
This should mainly occur over southern Missouri but light snow is
possible as far north as the southern Kansas City Metropolitan area.
Snow should diminish/slide south as colder and drier air moves into
the region from another strong area of high pressure sliding south
through the Plains. The combination of northerly winds, before the
high pressure settles into the area, and bitterly cold temperatures
below zero across portions of northern/northeastern Missouri, will
lead to wind chill values in the -15 to -20 degree range. So the wind
chill advisory is in good shape with no plans to change it with this
forecast.
Tuesday - Wednesday:
The aforementioned high pressure area will settle over the area
Tuesday with bitterly cold temperatures expected Tuesday. Low
temperatures Tuesday morning should be around -10 to -12 over
northern Missouri where the center of the high pressure should
settle overnight. This will lead to clear/mostly clear skies and
calm winds and with many areas still with deep snow cover, strong
radiational cooling will occur leading to those well below zero
readings. Afternoon temperatures will struggle into the teens and
lower 20s. The surface high will shift to the east allowing for
southerly flow to return. There is a fair amount of uncertainty
about just how warm we might get due to snow cover over our area as
well as to our southwest. But highs in the lower to middle 30s still
look reasonable and it still looks like by early afternoon the
Kansas City area will climb above freezing for the first time in
well over a week.
The only noticeable change to the going forecast was to add some
light snow during the day over the eastern portions of the forecast
area. The trailing vorticity maximum from a clipper system tracking
through the Upper Midwest will move through the area and may be
enough to lead to light snow. Confidence isn`t especially high at
this point so have only mentioned a slight chance for snow.
Thursday - Saturday:
Once temperatures warm on Wednesday, it looks like they will stay
warmer through the end of the week. However, there is a fair amount
of uncertainty as the ECMWF does not plunge any colder air back into
the region like the GFS does by the Thursday night/Friday. The GEM
supports the ECMWF notion of keeping temperatures in the upper 30s
to middle 40s and the forecast more closely follows the the GEM/ECMWF
notion.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Band of snow over central KS is associated with the next shortwave
tracking ese out of CO. This snow will pass through east central KS
and parts of west central MO between midnight and shortly after
sunrise. The snow will miss all 3 terminals. Much drier air is
filtering southward and preventing any clouds lower than 7-8k ft agl
to form. So, will maintain the VFR forecast. Will gradually see
these mid clouds scatter out from north to south Monday morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM to 11 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ003-
005>008-015>017-024-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
909 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 5000
FEET ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...AND TO 6000 FEET ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. SHOWERS END IN MOST AREAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY
ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND GROUND TRUTH MEASUREMENTS SHOWING NAM AND
HRRR MODELS DOING BETTER WITH SNOW LEVELS AND QPF AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...UPDATED WEATHER...POP...QPF...SNOW LEVEL...AND
SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS TO CAPTURE THE EXPECTED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST TO INCLUDE ALL OF
LANDER EUREKA AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 326 PM /
SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING VALLEY RAINS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
FALL IN THE VALLEY AREAS INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHOWERS BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HOWEVER MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RADAR IS FAIRLY CLEAR AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE FILLING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER
BATCH OF MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
IS SPILLING OVER INTO PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. RAIN WILL
AGAIN BE PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME DEPICTS ENHANCED CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...PRESSING EAST INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA. EMBEDDED
IN THE CLOUDS IS A VORT MAX...WHICH IS ALSO BEING SHOWN IN THE
RUC13...GFS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE FEATURE...700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE 1 TO 2.5 DEGREES C BY LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE THE SNOW LEVEL
FORECAST DIFFICULT...WITH ERRORS OF 500 FEET MAKING A BIG DIFFERENCE.
DECIDED TO ISSUE IMPACT BASED ADVISORIES FOR 5500-6000 FEET ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW...MAYBE 1
TO 2 OR 3 INCHES...BUT IT WILL AFFECT TRAVEL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER PASSES AND SUMMITS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON...HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THOUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE
FREEZING FOG SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...BUT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT CLOUDINESS TO PREVENT FORMATION. WILL
PASS ONTO LATER SHIFTS REGARDING THIS LINE OF THINKING.
ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC WILL IMPACT
THE WEST COAST....BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE GRIDS
JUST YET. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED ALLOWING ENERGY AND
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS NORTH
OF THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR WILL BE THE LOCATIONS AFFECTED. IT
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM EVENT WITH VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH
OF RIDGE AND TIMING OF TROUGH COMING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA LATE
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VERY MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH PW`S 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AND INTEGRATED WV TRANSPORT 5 TO 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS AIRMASS WILL BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NEVADA...THUS INCREASED POPS ON THURSDAY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES
WITH ZONAL FLOW. FRIDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE STREAM AND
PRECIPITATION NORTH TO NEAR THE STATE BORDER.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BROAD RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHERN BORDER. MODELS ALL SHOW
TROUGH DEEPENING A BIT ACROSS EASTERN PACIFIC AND MOVING OVER NEVADA
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACT TIMING AND HOW
DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE...WHICH IS INFLUENCING THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE AT KEKO AND KELY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS AND VIS
WILL BE MVFR WHEN RAIN OCCURS OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF RAIN BANDS. KTPH SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A 10 TO 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST MONDAY
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST MONDAY
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST MONDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST MONDAY
ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.
&&
$$
96
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1242 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...
STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM NORTH. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY... BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SATELLITE IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL
IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES AN UPPER LEVEL OPAQUE DECK OF CLOUDINESS
MOVING LIKE A BAT OUT OF HELL...HAVING JUST ABOUT EXITED THE ILM
CWA TO THE EAST...AND OUT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CURRENT MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE ILM CWA AT THE
MOMENT...AND IT TOO IS TRAVELING AT A DECENT SPEED. WILL HAVE TO
UPDATE SKY CONDITIONS FOR LESS CLOUDS AT THE START. WILL STILL
ADVERTISE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK AFTER THE CFP. NOT EXPECTING
ANY PCPN ACCOMPANYING ITS PASSAGE. OVERALL...LOOKING AT BASICALLY
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITION OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR SFC WIND FIELD
INDICATES THE COLD FRONT TO DROP...NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE ILM
CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HOURS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP LATE TONIGHT...BEST SEEN WITH MODEL 925 MB
TEMP FIELDS. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMBING A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DURING THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...MORE THAN LIKELY WE
WILL SEE MIN TEMPS OCCURRING RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. STILL
ENOUGH OF A CLOUD DECK AND WEAK MIXING AT THE SFC TO KEEP ANY
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO A MINIMUM...AND THUS MINIMIZING ANY
AREAS/WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT
APPEARS TO BE BREWING FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL UNRESOLVED QUESTIONS:
- HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE WILL
END UP...
- WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR WITHIN THE WARM
NOSE ALOFT (3000-7000 FT) ENDS UP...
- WHEN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS TUESDAY...
IF YOU ARE READING THIS YOU HAVE PROBABLY ALREADY REVIEWED THE 12Z
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS HAS THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE ON
THE MASS FIELDS (FRONTAL POSITIONS, HIGHS, LOWS) AND IS THE DEFAULT
MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS STORM. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO VEER LOW LEVEL
WINDS TOO MUCH TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH TOO MUCH WARMING
OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 00Z AND NOW THE 12Z RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE INTERESTING IN THAT THEY ATTEMPT TO BRING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE GULF UP INTO THE COLD AIR WEDGE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE TECHNICALLY BEYOND THE TIME FRAME
COVERED BY THE MON-TUE NIGHT PERIOD...THE ECMWF SOLUTION TYPICALLY
DOES NOT OCCUR AND MAY BE A CLUE THE ECMWF MAY NOT HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE THIS TIME.
AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY DAY MONDAY (HIGHS: 50S TO NEAR 60)
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERCAST SKIES DEVELOPING. COLD DRY AIR PUSHED SOUTH BY 1037 MB
ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER IOWA WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
295-310K SURFACES (A DEEP LAYER FROM 9000-18000 FT AGL) WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z GFS INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE
GENERALLY SLOWER THAN THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIP TUESDAY...BUT 80+% OF THEM STILL SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID 30S UP UNTIL SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION OCCURS TO INDUCE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AT WHICH POINT TEMPS
WILL DIVE DOWN TO FREEZING ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE
TO MARION...WHITEVILLE AND BURGAW.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW...HOWEVER ABOVE-FREEZING AIR ARRIVING AT 850 MB ACROSS
SOUTH CAROLINA AND ALONG THE COAST WILL TRANSITION PRECIP OVER TO
RAIN OR SLEET DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COOL DRY AIR BENEATH
THE WARM NOSE ALOFT. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS BENEATH THE
WARM NOSE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ENSURE A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR TO
OFFSET LATENT HEATING INCURRED FROM SLEET FORMATION...AND THE
ALL-SNOW LINE MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO SNEAK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
BENNETTSVILLE...LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN WITH SNOW + SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS OF WILMINGTON AND MYRTLE BEACH...
YOU ARE VERY CLOSE TO SIGNIFICANT GRADIENTS IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SMALL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES
COULD MAKE TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE OUTCOME FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WED WHILE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO RIDE ACROSS A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE GA COAST WED MORNING WHICH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHARPEN THE WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH UP THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST RIGHT EAST OF OUR
LOCAL AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA ENCOMPASSING THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE RUNNING UP FROM GA INTO NC
THROUGH WED WHILE CONVECTIVE PCP SHOULD DEVELOP IN CONVERGENCE
LOCATED ALONG TROUGH AXIS OFF SHORE. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATER QPF
OFF THE COAST. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPS AND WEATHER TYPE AND TOTAL QPF AND WILL
NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. OVERALL WILL HAVE
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER EVENT HEADING INTO WED WITH MIXED PCP
CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING COOLER WED
THROUGH WED NIGHT.
BY THURS THE LOW WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LINGERING
PCP THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN THAN MIXED AS
AIR MASS WARMS SLIGHTLY BUT PLACES WELL INLAND MAY CONTINUE TO MIX
UNTIL LATE DAY. PLENTY OF DRY AND COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BACK THURS NIGHT AHEAD
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY FRI
SWEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
ON FRI. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL SCOUR OUT ALL CLOUDS
AND PCP LEADING TO A DRIER WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART. SHOULD SEE
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE GFS DOES HINT AT
A SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHICH
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PRODUCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
TO MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CIGS...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGH CLOUDS INFILTRATING INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER...MID AND HIGH...INCREASES TO
BKN/OVC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR LOW CIGS TO
CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY EVENING. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT
NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULD NOT RULE OUT -RA ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY FROZEN PRECIP AT KLBT...THOUGH
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY MORNING. PREDOMINATELY IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
THURSDAY EVENING...THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SW TO W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH...WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MONDAY HOURS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS BY OR SEVERAL HRS AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE CAA COMBINED
WITH A TIGHTENING POST CFP SFC PG...WILL YIELD W TO NW WINDS 10-15
KT...BECOMING N-NE AROUND 15 KT LIKELY SEVERAL HRS AFTER DAYBREAK
MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4
FOOTERS POSSIBLE OFF CAPE FEAR. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PRIMARILY BE COMPRISED OF A 2 TO 3 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9
TO 10 SECOND PERIODS. BUOYS WITHIN AND NEARBY THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS...41108 AND 41013 AND 41004... ILLUSTRATE THIS DOMINATING
GROUND SWELL. AS A RESULT...DOMINATING PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9
SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEST WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL PUSH COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO
25-30 KT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND POTENTIALLY
LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL.
OUR WAVE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE BASED HEAVILY ON THE LOCAL SWAN
MODEL...BUT WITH ONE IMPORTANT CHANGE. THE SWAN HAS A KNOWN BIAS
OF BUILDING SEAS TOO QUICKLY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. THEREFORE I
HAVE TRIMMED BACK ITS FORECASTS BY 1-2 FEET MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
NORTHEAST SURGE BEGINS. OTHERWISE ITS OUTPUT LOOKS ACCEPTABLE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST WED INTO THURS ENHANCING THE WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE WILL SEE NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND AND TROUGH/LOW OFF THE COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS TUES WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
TUES THROUGH WED NIGHT NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS. SHOULD REMAIN
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF LOW WHILE WATERS WELL OFF SHORE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LATEST WNA MODEL KEEPS SEAS AS HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS ON
WED AS LOW RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHARPENING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE A SOLID 25 TO 30 KTS AND MAY SEE WINDS
REACHING GALE FORCE OFF SHORE. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURS WITH
N-NW WINDS BACKING TO W-NW BY THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW TO N THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WATERS AND FURTHER OFF SHORE LATE FRI. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THURS NIGHT INTO FRI IN DECREASING OFF SHORE FLOW HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
306 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES EARLY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES TUESDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NE KY AND S WV AS OF 06Z. AREA OF MID LEVEL LIFT
MAXIMIZED OVER E KY AND THE S COAL FIELDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN A BIT
NEXT SEVERAL HRS BY LATEST RUC. HRRR AGREES...WEAKENING OVERALL
MESO BAND AND SHIFTING IT SE BY 10Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM NW.
HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS LAWRENCE CO KY...WITH
HALF AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE. THINK AROUND AN INCH ON AVG
ACROSS NE KY/S WV BEFORE EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN. MAY SEE SOME
LOLLIPOP 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS...IN PARTICULAR S
MINGO AND S LOGAN CO. HAVE AN SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS AND SLICK
TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BREAK OUT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY WITH
JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU. NE KY/S WV/SW VA IN CROSS-HAIRS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE W. EVEN HERE THOUGH...SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT WITH MANY PLACES UNDER A FAIR SKY.
FOR TEMPS...RAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LATEST LAMP/HRRR WHICH
RESULTED IN SHAVING OFF A TICK OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GENERALLY 20S OUTSIDE OF MTNS...WITH SOME TEENS AOA 3KFT. FOR
TONIGHT...QUITE COLD WITH SOME DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BLO
ZERO READINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH WITH PERRY CO PROBABLY
BEING THE COLD SPOT YET AGAIN. GENERALLY LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE
WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SUSPECT SOME N LOWLAND COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO AS
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD IS THEN
CONSIDERABLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET
WOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OVER THE REGION. GFS/SREF
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF HAS HAD
A HABIT OF ADVERTISING THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM NUMEROUS TIMES IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...BUT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER ALWAYS BACKS
OFF. GFS HAS HAD A MUCH BETTER TRACK RECORD WITH NOT SHOWING THE BIG
ONE. IN ADDITION...THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE WEST...AND HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST AS A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION. JUST BE AWARE...THAT THE EXTREMES ARE POSSIBLE...AS
IN MAJOR STORM...OR NO STORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EITHER UP...OR OFF...THE E COAST...ON THU.
THE SYSTEM DEPENDS UPON A NEGATIVE TILT S/W TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST CAN THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOW MUCH IT CLOSES OFF
/HOW INTENSE IT BECOMES/...AND THEREFORE...HOW MUCH THE STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS A WEAKER S/W TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN DIGGING FEATURE. THIS MAY SHUNT THE SYSTEM EWD LONGER
WED NT...SO THAT...EVEN IT IT DOES THEN TURN N THU MORNING...IT
WILL HAVE ALREADY OUT-FLANKED...OR MOVED AROUND...THE FCST AREA...BY
THEN.
THE GEM IS MOST INTENSE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWFHIRES IS
FARTHEST W...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR W AS AT LEAST ITS LAST THREE
RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS E OF THE OHIO RIVER WED NT INTO THU TO REFLECT
THE COMPROMISE/WPC SOLN HERE...WITH ONLY A SCHC FARTHER W.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE OUT W...BUT THE PATTERN ALSO REMAINS NOT
VERY AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE THE FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE COLD
OUTBREAKS NOT THAT COLD. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS...THIS
LIKELY FAVORS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE WED NT-THU E COAST
SYSTEM. IT ALSO MEANS THAT SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT.
A COLD FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY A S/W TROUGH AS THE
L/W ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT THEN. THE FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS ITSELF
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT INCREASE WITH FCST PROJECTION TIME...SO
THAT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND NATURE OF ANY
SYSTEM TRAVERSING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL AND A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS IN SOME CASES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
AREA OF -SN CONT ACROSS NE KY/S WV AS OF 06Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
WIND DOWN PREDAWN. IN MEANTIME...HAVE GENERAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH
SOME TEMPO IFR ACROSS KCRW/KBKW IN SN. DRIER AIR WORKS IN LATER
THIS MORNING HELPING TO SCT OUT THE MVFR CIGS AS SN ENDS ACROSS
THE S...FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY AMID SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONT.
WNW LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WITH 5 TO 15 KT NW SURFACE
FLOW...SLACKENING TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 02/10/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H L H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M L L L L L
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE
PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30
EQUIPMENT...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
147 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES EARL MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NE KY AND S WV AS OF 06Z. AREA OF MID LEVEL LIFT
MAXIMIZED OVER E KY AND THE S COAL FIELDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN A BIT
NEXT SEVERAL HRS BY LATEST RUC. HRRR AGREES...WEAKENING OVERALL
MESO BAND AND SHIFTING IT SE BY 10Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM NW.
HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS LAWRENCE CO KY...WITH
HALF AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE. THINK AROUND AN INCH ON AVG
ACROSS NE KY/S WV BEFORE EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN. MAY SEE SOME
LOLLIPOP 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS...IN PARTICULAR S
MINGO AND S LOGAN CO. HAVE AN SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS AND SLICK
TRAVEL ON UNTREATED RDS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BREAK OUT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY WITH
JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU. NE KY/S WV/SW VA IN CROSS-HAIRS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE W. EVEN HERE THOUGH...SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT WITH MANY PLACES UNDER A FAIR SKY.
FOR TEMPS...RAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LATEST LAMP/HRRR WHICH
RESULTED IN SHAVING OFF A TICK OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GENERALLY 20S OUTSIDE OF MTNS...WITH SOME TEENS AOA 3KFT. FOR
TONIGHT...QUITE COLD WITH SOME DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BLO
ZERO READINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH WITH PERRY CO PROBABLY
BEING THE COLD SPOT YET AGAIN. GENERALLY LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE
WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SUSPECT SOME N LOWLAND COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO AS
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PROVIDING COLD
NIGHTS..WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD IMPROVE OVER 32 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION NOTICED BY MODELS AT H85. THESE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS IN RESPONSE OF AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN H5 VORTICITY CHARTS.
THE AREA AND MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EXIST ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASS BY...AND THE SFC LOW
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED SREF...GFS MOS AND PERSISTENCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KEPT QUITE COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH PORTIONS OF SE OH...SPECIFICALLY PERRY CO...ONCE AGAIN
GOING BELOW ZERO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EITHER UP...OR OFF...THE E COAST...ON THU.
THE SYSTEM DEPENDS UPON A NEGATIVE TILT S/W TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST CAN THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOW MUCH IT CLOSES OFF
/HOW INTENSE IT BECOMES/...AND THEREFORE...HOW MUCH THE STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS A WEAKER S/W TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN DIGGING FEATURE. THIS MAY SHUNT THE SYSTEM EWD LONGER
WED NT...SO THAT...EVEN IT IT DOES THEN TURN N THU MORNING...IT
WILL HAVE ALREADY OUT-FLANKED...OR MOVED AROUND...THE FCST AREA...BY
THEN.
THE GEM IS MOST INTENSE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWFHIRES IS
FARTHEST W...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR W AS AT LEAST ITS LAST THREE
RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS E OF THE OHIO RIVER WED NT INTO THU TO REFLECT
THE COMPROMISE/WPC SOLN HERE...WITH ONLY A SCHC FARTHER W.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE OUT W...BUT THE PATTERN ALSO REMAINS NOT
VERY AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE THE FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE COLD
OUTBREAKS NOT THAT COLD. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS...THIS
LIKELY FAVORS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE WED NT-THU E COAST
SYSTEM. IT ALSO MEANS THAT SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT.
A COLD FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY A S/W TROUGH AS THE
L/W ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT THEN. THE FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS ITSELF
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT INCREASE WITH FCST PROJECTION TIME...SO
THAT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND NATURE OF ANY
SYSTEM TRAVERSING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL AND A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS IN SOME CASES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
AREA OF -SN CONT ACROSS NE KY/S WV AS OF 06Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
WIND DOWN PREDAWN. IN MEANTIME...HAVE GENERAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH
SOME TEMPO IFR ACROSS KCRW/KBKW IN SN. DRIER AIR WORKS IN LATER
THIS MORNING HELPING TO SCT OUT THE MVFR CIGS AS SN ENDS ACROSS
THE S...FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY AMID SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONT.
WNW LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WITH 5 TO 15 KT NW SURFACE
FLOW...SLACKENING TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 02/10/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H L H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M L L L L L
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE
PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1152 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 10/06Z TAF CYCLE.
SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARED ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING, WHICH
ALLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BEGIN. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINS HAS HELD DEWPOINTS UP AND FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM IN
THE VALLEYS. FOG IS ALREADY IN PLACE AT KOTH AND THINK THIS WILL
DEVELOP WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS AT KMFR AND KRBG AS WELL. IT
IS EVEN POSSIBLE AT KLMT. HAVE UPDATED 10/06Z TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST BY DAWN AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIFT FOG INTO STRATUS AT KOTH. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
MID MORNING MONDAY. RAIN CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS THERE AS SKIES CLEAR. -WRIGHT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING. CAN`T RULE OUT
A STRAY SHOWER HERE AND THERE OVER OUR OREGON ZONES (IN FACT, ONE
JUST PASSED THROUGH THE ROGUE VALLEY), BUT THE BULK OF TONIGHT
WILL BE DRY OVER SW OREGON. IT IS STILL RAINING ACROSS EASTERN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES, AND THE 10/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND
GFS WANT TO HOLD ONTO RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THESE
AREAS. HOWEVER, RADAR SHOWS RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND I`LL SIDE WITH RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE MODELS. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN ONTO THE
NORTH COAST TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT WILL BE MORE OF A NUISANCE
THAN ANYTHING IMPORTANT. THE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND WIND
STORM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. -WRIGHT
MARINE...THE WATERS ARE IN A LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALSO LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND WEST SWELL TRAINS
THAT ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE COMBINED SEAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS LIGHT RAIN TO
THE WATERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
WITH HIGH AND VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ONE OF SEVERAL
FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUED STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS AND
PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL
AND RADAR RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHERN CAL. THE RAP SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS EVENING, BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THEN A FEW TICKS ON
THE RAIN GAGE. THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL QUICKLY ZIP EAST AND
WE`LL SEE STEADY PRECIPITATION DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, I`M NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION. WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY IN
SOUTHERN OREGON.
A WEAK FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST RANGE...NORTHWEST DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND NORTHERN CASCADES. NORTHERN CAL AND MUCH OF THE EASTSIDE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG
UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE I`M FAIRLY
CONFIDENT WE`LL REMAIN DRY.
OF BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY AND TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION AIMED
RIGHT AT US. THE GFS SHOWS 925 MB WINDS PUSHING 65 KTS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. IF THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT, THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING A
HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTH COAST.
AT THE SAME TIME, MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE
COAST RANGE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO HAVE PRECIP AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
RANGE, 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. KEEP IN MID THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND THE
SPECIFICS OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD CHANGE. EVEN THOUGH RIVER
FLOWS HAVE BEEN LOW, THEY WILL COME UP AND IF WE GET A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION, THEY WILL COME UP AND
IF NOTHING ELSE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAPID RISES ALONG SOME OF
THE SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
HIGH (BETWEEN 7500 AND 8000 FEET) ON WEDNESDAY -PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
FRONTS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE WET AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND A LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE 12Z MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE PACNW EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, MODELS ARE
ALSO INDICATING A PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AIMED
AT THE AREA. THE GFS AND GEFS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ORIGINATING FROM NEAR HAWAII AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HIGH
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS, MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. ALSO
AS THE STRONG FRONT MOVES INLAND, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SUMMER LAKE AND SHASTA VALLEY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IN PARTICULAR LINGERS THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD MOISTURE WOULD PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GEFS
PUSH THE FRONT INLAND FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
THEN ON SATURDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER MODERATE TO
STRONG FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA. THE GFS, GEFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST EARLY SATURDAY
THEN INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EMCWF DEPICTS THE LOW CENTER FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND WOULD SUPPORT AND INCREASED CHANCE FOR
STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, POSSIBLY DOWN TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
815 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING. CAN`T RULE OUT
A STRAY SHOWER HERE AND THERE OVER OUR OREGON ZONES (IN FACT, ONE
JUST PASSED THROUGH THE ROGUE VALLEY), BUT THE BULK OF TONIGHT
WILL BE DRY OVER SW OREGON. IT IS STILL RAINING ACROSS EASTERN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES, AND THE 10/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND
GFS WANT TO HOLD ONTO RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THESE
AREAS. HOWEVER, RADAR SHOWS RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND I`LL SIDE WITH RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE MODELS. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN ONTO THE
NORTH COAST TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IT WILL BE MORE OF A NUISANCE
THAN ANYTHING IMPORTANT. THE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND WIND
STORM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. -WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IT
IS CREATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KRBG.
MEANTIME...BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS A MIX OF VFR CEILINGS AND IFR
COAST AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OVERNIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STABILIZATION
BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. A NEW FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST ON MONDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES INCLUDING KRBG. OTHERWISE...VALLEY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
&&
.MARINE...THE WATERS ARE IN A LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALSO LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND WEST SWELL TRAINS THAT
ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE COMBINED SEAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS LIGHT RAIN TO THE WATERS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH HIGH AND
VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ONE OF SEVERAL FRONTS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE CONTINUED STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS AND PERIODS OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL
AND RADAR RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHERN CAL. THE RAP SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS EVENING, BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THEN A FEW TICKS ON
THE RAIN GAGE. THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL QUICKLY ZIP EAST AND
WE`LL SEE STEADY PRECIPITATION DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, I`M NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION. WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY IN
SOUTHERN OREGON.
A WEAK FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST RANGE...NORTHWEST DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND NORTHERN CASCADES. NORTHERN CAL AND MUCH OF THE EASTSIDE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG
UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE I`M FAIRLY
CONFIDENT WE`LL REMAIN DRY.
OF BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY AND TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION AIMED
RIGHT AT US. THE GFS SHOWS 925 MB WINDS PUSHING 65 KTS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. IF THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT, THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING A
HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTH COAST.
AT THE SAME TIME, MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE
COAST RANGE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO HAVE PRECIP AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
RANGE, 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. KEEP IN MID THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND THE
SPECIFICS OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD CHANGE. EVEN THOUGH RIVER
FLOWS HAVE BEEN LOW, THEY WILL COME UP AND IF WE GET A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION, THEY WILL COME UP AND
IF NOTHING ELSE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAPID RISES ALONG SOME OF
THE SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
HIGH (BETWEEN 7500 AND 8000 FEET) ON WEDNESDAY -PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
FRONTS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE WET AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND A LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE 12Z MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE PACNW EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, MODELS ARE
ALSO INDICATING A PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AIMED
AT THE AREA. THE GFS AND GEFS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ORIGINATING FROM NEAR HAWAII AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HIGH
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS, MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. ALSO
AS THE STRONG FRONT MOVES INLAND, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SUMMER LAKE AND SHASTA VALLEY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IN PARTICULAR LINGERS THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD MOISTURE WOULD PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GEFS
PUSH THE FRONT INLAND FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
THEN ON SATURDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER MODERATE TO
STRONG FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA. THE GFS, GEFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST EARLY SATURDAY
THEN INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EMCWF DEPICTS THE LOW CENTER FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND WOULD SUPPORT AND INCREASED CHANCE FOR
STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, POSSIBLY DOWN TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1146 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY AND
THEN BECOME THE FOCUS OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM SUNDAY...
PUSH OF COLDER AIR SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW...
WITH UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RR QUAD OF JET. BELIEVE
THIS BOOST OF ENERGY WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FOR
THE WRN SLOPES AND WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT TO INDICATE THIS. STILL
BELIEVE IT TO BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT SO JUST A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL.
ALSO BUMPED WINDS UP A BIT EARLY ON...BUT THEY WILL BE SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...FORECAST HAS FLIPPED FROM DRY TO WET...ESP AREAS
SOUTH OF 460. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE SHOW YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY.
THIS SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MTNS MONDAY
MORNING. NARROW RIBBON OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA
IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF VIRGINIA ROUTE 460...OR SOUTH OF A
BLF-ROA-LYH LINE...IMPACTING OUR VA/NC BORDER COUNTIES.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ABOUT A TENTH /0.10/ OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH TRANSLATES TO ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOW IF IT ALL CAN STICK. FAIRLY CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY OF NC AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY WILL BE PLENTY COLD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS SHOULD
ADHERE TO THE SURFACE. EAST OF THE MTNS...NOT AS CONFIDENT...ESP
SINCE TEMPERATURES REACHED 50 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE
PRECIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY FALL AS WHITE RAIN...SNOW THAT
MELTS ON CONTACT. THAT SAID...FORECAST WILL REFLECT 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...TRENDING TO AN INCH OR LESS
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BEST LIFT FOR PRECIP PRODUCTION MOVES THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 12-16Z (7-11AM) THEN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
FROM 16-21Z (11AM-5PM). AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...SHOULD
SEE PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE TEMPERED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP IN THE AREA. DON`T FORESEE THEM GETTING OUT OF THE
30S...WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINING IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SUNDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING...TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT COLD. AT THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
STALLED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...NOW BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
ATTENTION AS ENERGY FROM THE WEST COAST CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THEN BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND THE DEEP
SOUTH...TRANSLATING INTO A COASTAL STORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTION WITH
REGARDS TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM AND IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. AS NEIGHBORING OFFICE GSP
POINTED OUT SUCCINCTLY...THE CIPS ANALOG SHOWS THAT THE BEST DATE
MATCH FOR THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREDICTED
WEDNESDAY...LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION
DEPICTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF. ALTHOUGH FORECASTERS TYPICALLY LIKE TO
SEE EVERY MODEL SHOWING A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR IMPACTFUL
STORMS...THE CONSISTENCY AND SKILL OF THE ECMWF AND THE CLUES FROM
THE CIPS ANALOG SITE VERY WELL MAY TRUMP THAT NEED. THE STRUGGLES
OF THE GFS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND THE POOR PERFORMANCE
OF THE NAM AT 78-84 HRS CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED.
MANY OF THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ARE IN
PLACE...CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN SE
CANADA...WHICH SLOWS SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
PHASING AND/OR EVENTUAL NEGATIVE TILT...AND A STRONG WEDGING
SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE BEFORE THE PRECIP SHIELD
ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF NEW ENGLAND
LATER WEDNESDAY...BY THAT TIME THE WEDGE WILL BE OF AN IN SITU
VARIETY...WITH A COLD ENOUGH LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOCKED IN TO
KEEP AN ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING JUST BELOW FREEZING.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ICE STORM EARLIER THIS SEASON...THIS IS
PROBABLY THE STRONGEST SIGNAL WE`VE SEEN ALL WINTER THIS MANY DAYS
AWAY...WITH REGARDS TO AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM. STILL
THOUGH...NEED TO SEE THIS EVENT FULLY MOVE INTO THE 72 HR WINDOW
BEFORE TURNING THE FORECAST STRONGLY TOWARDS A WINTER STORM.
WEDNESDAY WOULD SEEM TO BE THE DAY THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WITH A SHOT OF SUB -10C H85 AIR MAY ARRIVE DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW SEEMS TO QUICKLY TURN MORE
ZONAL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST ALLOWING FOR QUICK WAA TO CLOSE
NEXT WEEKEND. SOME UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SE WEST VA
BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THURSDAY ALSO APPEARS TO BE A
CALMER DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM EST SUNDAY...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO IFR CIGS AT BLF. AREA
RADARS WERE SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT KBLF AND SOON KLWB TO HAVE IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.
GFS AND NAM 12Z RUNS ARE BOTH ADVERTISING SOME PRECIP RUNNING ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SHOWS LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN KDAN AS EARLY AS
16Z AND CIGS MAY AT LEAST FALL TO MVFR WHEN THE SNOW BEGINS.
LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER INTO MONDAY EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEINGS STRETCHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MODELS STILL ADVERTISING POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF ALONG THE FRONT THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME SNOW WOULD BE
THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE OVER OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLY RAIN MIXING IN AT
DAN. THERE COULD BE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE LOW TRACK...STAY TUNED...BUT TRAVEL BY AIR
OVERALL DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...KM/PM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
656 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED THE DENSE FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO "EXPIRE".
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF MOIST WAVES IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WRN
COLORADO TODAY. RAP MODEL SHOW WIDESPREAD PCPN AND UPDATED POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING AND ACTIVITY WANES THIS
AFTERNOON. DID MAKE ON ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR
THE FAR SOUTH. IN HOUSE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL GUIDANCE AND THE DAY
ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS FROM MONUMENT
VALLEY TO DURANGO. INTRODUCED AFTERNOON THUNDER IN THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
REGARDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WRN COLORADO VALLEYS...APPEARS
THERE WILL BE NO NEED TO EXTEND IT AS RAIN AS CAUSED MIXING WITH
VISIBILITY ABOVE 1 MILE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE NEXT WAVE IN THIS MOIST PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS ARRIVING TO OUR
WESTERN DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE 00Z
RAOB PUSHING ABOVE THE HALF INCH MARK THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING. UNFORTUNATELY THE LIFT WAS NOT VERY ORGANIZED TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION REPORTS FOR THE MOST
PART WERE ON THE LOW SIDE. MOST REPORTING SITES AND WEB CAMS HAVE
SHOWN LULL THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CONSIDERED LOWERING OR REPLACING
HEADLINES FOR TODAY. HOWEVER IN THE END WITH ROAD CONDITIONS STILL
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY DECIDED TO LEAVE AS IS. THE
SAN JUANS WILL BE DROPPING OUT THIS MORNING...AND THOUGH THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY AIDED SNOW EVENT ON MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY
FLOW...DECIDED AGAINST ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AND THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
WITH THE UPPER WAVE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE WITH SOME HIGH AMOUNTS LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE HIGHER PEAKS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING
THROUGH OUR WEST CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE ROTATING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE JET TAKES A DIP SOUTHWARD. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING A DISTINCT DARKENING THIS MORNING MARKING A DIP IN THE TROP
AS AN ILL DEFINED COUPLED JET MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. BOTH
GFS/NAM SHOW THE AXIS OF DILITATION IN THE 650MB REGION FAVORABLE
FOR TIGHTENING THE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVER OUR WEST
CENTRAL CWA...BUT VARY IN WHERE THIS EXACTLY SETS UP. WITH THE
INSTABILITY ARRIVING WITH THE PUSH OF THE LOWERING TROP...SOME BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION/SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVZY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TAVAPUTS AND NORTHERN UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE MONITORED. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON FAVORING THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO END THIS LONG TERM
EVENT. THERE IS CAA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LIKE THE THERMAL
PROFILE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THOUGH PASSING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP SOME HEAVIER SNOW. BEHIND THE WAVE THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY DRIES OUT AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES COOL AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD DROP HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH THE NEW AIR MASS
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WILL SETTLE IN
FOR TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
ON THE HEELS OF A POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT LASTS INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CONUS AND PLACES UTAH AND COLORADO IN WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS THE PREFERRED WIND DIRECTION FOR OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAIN AREAS (PARK/GORE RANGES).
FIRST SHORT WAVE BARELY SKIRTS NRN ROUTT COUNTY ON TUESDAY EVENING...
BUT THE SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE THAT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
STRONGER WITH TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW. PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING
SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC SNOWS FOR THE PARK/GORE RANGES. BUT THERE
ARE TAKEAWAYS...THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS ANTICYCLONIC AND GRADIENT
FLOW WANES WITH TIME. WARMING ALOFT ALLOWS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGIME TO EXIST ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION. QG DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. WILL MONITOR QPF PROGS AND ENSEMBLE
CHARTS TO ASSESS SNOW POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY FOR THE COLORADO NWRN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH PASS. THE CHANCE OF SNOW DIMINISHES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM AND GRADIENT
FLOW LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WARM RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO BY SATURDAY
AND RESULTS IN TEMPS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MEX MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...BUT BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS LIKELY RUNNING TOO COLD GIVEN THE COOL
REGIME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (MOST NOTABLY THE NRN/CENTRAL
VALLEYS...LESS SO FOR THE SRN VALLEYS). HAVE BLENDED THESE VALUES
THAT ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. THE RESULT IS TEMPS ROUGHLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THAT RESEMBLES EARLY SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
WIDESPREAD -RA/-SN WITH SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 6K-7K FEET BRING IFR
CIGS/VIS TO THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z. FOR DESERT VALLEY
TAF SITES...LOCAL VIS BELOW 3SM IN BR IS POSSIBLE WITH OCNL -RA
THROUGH 18Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT -RA/-SN
TAPER OFF TO SCT -SHRA/-SHSN WITH SNOW LEVEL AROUND 5K-6K FEET.
AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING...MOUNTAIN -SHSN WILL BE ENDING WITH VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES. LOCAL PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS OR
VALLEY BOTTOMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
COZ004-010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
622 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF MOIST WAVES IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WRN
COLORADO TODAY. RAP MODEL SHOW WIDESPREAD PCPN AND UPDATED POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING AND ACTIVITY WANES THIS
AFTERNOON. DID MAKE ON ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR
THE FAR SOUTH. IN HOUSE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL GUIDANCE AND THE DAY
ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS FROM MONUMENT
VALLEY TO DURANGO. INTRODUCED AFTERNOON THUNDER IN THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
REGARDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WRN COLORADO VALLEYS...APPEARS
THERE WILL BE NO NEED TO EXTEND IT AS RAIN AS CAUSED MIXING WITH
VISIBILITY ABOVE 1 MILE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE NEXT WAVE IN THIS MOIST PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS ARRIVING TO OUR
WESTERN DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE 00Z
RAOB PUSHING ABOVE THE HALF INCH MARK THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING. UNFORTUNATELY THE LIFT WAS NOT VERY ORGANIZED TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION REPORTS FOR THE MOST
PART WERE ON THE LOW SIDE. MOST REPORTING SITES AND WEB CAMS HAVE
SHOWN LULL THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CONSIDERED LOWERING OR REPLACING
HEADLINES FOR TODAY. HOWEVER IN THE END WITH ROAD CONDITIONS STILL
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY DECIDED TO LEAVE AS IS. THE
SAN JUANS WILL BE DROPPING OUT THIS MORNING...AND THOUGH THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY AIDED SNOW EVENT ON MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY
FLOW...DECIDED AGAINST ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AND THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
WITH THE UPPER WAVE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE WITH SOME HIGH AMOUNTS LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE HIGHER PEAKS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING
THROUGH OUR WEST CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE ROTATING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE JET TAKES A DIP SOUTHWARD. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING A DISTINCT DARKENING THIS MORNING MARKING A DIP IN THE TROP
AS AN ILL DEFINED COUPLED JET MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. BOTH
GFS/NAM SHOW THE AXIS OF DILITATION IN THE 650MB REGION FAVORABLE
FOR TIGHTENING THE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVER OUR WEST
CENTRAL CWA...BUT VARY IN WHERE THIS EXACTLY SETS UP. WITH THE
INSTABILITY ARRIVING WITH THE PUSH OF THE LOWERING TROP...SOME BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION/SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVZY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TAVAPUTS AND NORTHERN UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE MONITORED. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON FAVORING THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO END THIS LONG TERM
EVENT. THERE IS CAA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LIKE THE THERMAL
PROFILE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THOUGH PASSING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP SOME HEAVIER SNOW. BEHIND THE WAVE THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY DRIES OUT AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES COOL AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD DROP HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH THE NEW AIR MASS
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WILL SETTLE IN
FOR TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
ON THE HEELS OF A POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT LASTS INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CONUS AND PLACES UTAH AND COLORADO IN WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS THE PREFERRED WIND DIRECTION FOR OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAIN AREAS (PARK/GORE RANGES).
FIRST SHORT WAVE BARELY SKIRTS NRN ROUTT COUNTY ON TUESDAY EVENING...
BUT THE SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE THAT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
STRONGER WITH TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW. PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING
SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC SNOWS FOR THE PARK/GORE RANGES. BUT THERE
ARE TAKEAWAYS...THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS ANTICYCLONIC AND GRADIENT
FLOW WANES WITH TIME. WARMING ALOFT ALLOWS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGIME TO EXIST ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION. QG DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. WILL MONITOR QPF PROGS AND ENSEMBLE
CHARTS TO ASSESS SNOW POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY FOR THE COLORADO NWRN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH PASS. THE CHANCE OF SNOW DIMINISHES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM AND GRADIENT
FLOW LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WARM RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO BY SATURDAY
AND RESULTS IN TEMPS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MEX MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...BUT BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS LIKELY RUNNING TOO COLD GIVEN THE COOL
REGIME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (MOST NOTABLY THE NRN/CENTRAL
VALLEYS...LESS SO FOR THE SRN VALLEYS). HAVE BLENDED THESE VALUES
THAT ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. THE RESULT IS TEMPS ROUGHLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THAT RESEMBLES EARLY SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
WIDESPREAD -RA/-SN WITH SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 6K-7K FEET BRING IFR
CIGS/VIS TO THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z. FOR DESERT VALLEY
TAF SITES...LOCAL VIS BELOW 3SM IN BR IS POSSIBLE WITH OCNL -RA
THROUGH 18Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT -RA/-SN
TAPER OFF TO SCT -SHRA/-SHSN WITH SNOW LEVEL AROUND 5K-6K FEET.
AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING...MOUNTAIN -SHSN WILL BE ENDING WITH VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES. LOCAL PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS OR
VALLEY BOTTOMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ009.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MST THIS MORNING COZ006-011-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
COZ004-010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
522 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEFORE A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DESCENDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...THIN HIGH CLOUD SPREADING OVER THE REGION WITH QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. GOES FOG PRODUCTS STARTING TO HINT AT
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH GEORGIA. WE HAVE
ADDED A SMALL AREA OF PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FROM STATESBORO TO
HINESVILLE AND GLENNVILLE. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES
THIS MORNING GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDING
TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL.WE HAVE SEEN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT AND COLDER INLAND AREAS WERE FALLING INTO THE
30S.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BANK UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
LATER TODAY WHILE THE PRES PATTERN BUCKLES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. WE ARE GOING TO SQUEAK OUT ONE LAST
MILD DAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR INVADES THE REGION INTO MID WEEK.
OUR SKY COVER FORECAST BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM/GEM PROGS TODAY
WHICH INDICATE A BIT OF AN AFTERNOON BREAK BETWEEN THE HIGHER CLOUDS
EARLY AND INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS LATE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
THE MOST PART TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS LIKELY TO REACH 70 IN SOME OF
OUR COASTAL SE GEORGIA ZONES AND SOLID MID 60S IN SOUTH CAROLINA.
WE FOLLOWED RAP/HRRR POSITIONS OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHILE A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC REGION EXPANDS OVER THE SE
STATES AS A CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS. RAPIDLY
LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST RAINS
WILL BREAK OUT NORTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE NEARING DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL DO A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL
OVERNIGHT...MOST NOTABLE OVER NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT STALLING JUST SOUTH THE AREA. ENHANCED FORCING FROM AN H5
SHORTWAVE ENTERING FROM OUR WEST AND A FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE H25
JET ALOFT SUGGEST RAIN WILL EXPAND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WHILE DEEP
MOISTURE EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY OVER INLAND LOCATIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND RAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOW 40 TEMPS INLAND AND LOW/MID 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPS APPROACH FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE WEDGE OF HIGH
INLAND. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...BUT A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE TO
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING MID LVL TROUGH RESULTS IN
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DEEPENING AND SHIFTING
QUICKLY NORTHEAST FROM THE AREA INTO EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN ISSUE OVER THE PERIOD WILL BE WHEN TEMPS DROP NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING WEDGE WILL WARM LITTLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP WARM NOSE
ALOFT TO SUFFICIENTLY MELT ANY ICE CRYSTALS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AROUND FREEZING WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES.
SINCE MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE THE WEDGE ALL THAT WELL...THE
POTENTIAL IS EVEN THERE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR CLOSER TO
THE COAST. AT THIS TIME...OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES COULD EXPERIENCE
UP TO 1/4 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINE BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
DEPARTING SFC LOW AND TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AS A RESULT TO THE
EXPECTED EVENT...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR INLAND
COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
STARTING AT 12 AM WEDNESDAY AND ENDING THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS CLOSELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINE OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW
THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD POSSIBLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY...BEFORE PEAKING IN THE LOW/MID 60S ON
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID
40S THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. LOW END RISK OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT
THE TERMINALS. BUT FOG STABILITY INDICES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE
AND WE WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED OUR CROSS-OVER TEMPS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PREVAILING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE AREA WHILE CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ON THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY AND IS
REPLACED BY BROADER HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
QUITE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AHEAD OF A BIG
WEATHER CHANGE MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS RATHER VARIABLE WITH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS TODAY WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SOME FAIRLY LARGE SECOND
PERIOD MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING THE NE SURGE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
TIMING THE SURGE SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BECOMES
VERY TRICKY AND BETTER SURGING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST MAY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
BE ISSUED OFF THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH AREAS LATER TODAY ONCE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. WITH THE PINCHED
GRADIENT AND SURGING NE FLOW...SEAS WILL BUILD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FROM NORTHERN WATERS TO SOUTHERN WATERS
TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES BETWEEN A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND AND A SFC LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WESTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN GENERAL...WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK BETWEEN 25-30 KT OVER THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHILE SEAS BUILD UP TO
7-9 FT...HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS ON FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1039 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES COULD
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...SFC TROF MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED AS A RESULT. SEE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...ANY SUN
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LINGERING SFC CONVERGENCE
PERSISTS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS GT GOING.
PREVIOUSLY...
UPDATE...LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME NOW PULLING AWAY TO THE E. AS
IT DOES SO WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO NWLY...AND STUBBORN SFC TROF
IS EXITING COASTAL ME. MEANINGFUL SN IS WINDING DOWN ATTM...SO SPS
FOR ADDITIONAL SN DURING THE COMMUTE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 13Z
AS PLANNED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SNFL THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FOCUSED WITHIN
INVERTED SFC TROF...ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE NH/ME BORDER SEWD INTO
THE GULF OF ME. WLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT ISON3 AND
KPSM...QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NWLY AT BUOY 44030 AND WELLS
BEACH...AND NELY FROM KPWM NEWD UP THE COAST. THIS LLVL
CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED IN INTENSIFYING THE SNFL WITHIN THE WIND
SHIFT ZONE. STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST INVOF OF KPWM AND S FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. VERY RECENT
REPORT OF 3.5 INCHES AT KENNEBUNK CONFIRMS THAT A SMALL ZONE OF
3-4 INCH TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. A BLEND OF THE
NERFC...NAM12...AND HRRR QPF ACHIEVED AMOUNTS VERY CLOSE TO THIS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLD 5 INCH REPORT NEAR CAPE
ELIZABETH. SMALL AREAL EXTENT OF THESE HIGHER SNFL TOTALS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY.
WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ME THIS MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EWD. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN -SN FROM W TO
E. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY SLOWING
DOWN THE MORNING COMMUTE. AS WLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA....DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BREAK UP THE CLOUDS SE OF THE MTNS.
THIS SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20S SHOULD HELP THE ROAD
TREATMENT MELT ANY REMAINING SN ON THE ROADS THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CWFA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
THE ST. LAWRENCE. LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT OVER
THE MTNS WILL PRODUCE SOME SHSN THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST
PART OF TUE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
WITH HIGH PRES STILL BUILDING IN MON NIGHT...GRADIENT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT. EVEN A LIGHT BREEZE WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL COOLING. FEEL THE MAV IS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE BRINGING MIN
TEMPS TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA. INSTEAD CHOSE TO
BLEND THE WARMER MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE...AS BEST POTENTIAL COLD LOOKS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN.
THIS INCONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO YIELD A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
FOR THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EURO AND NAM CAMPS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT BY HUGGING THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE CANADIAN
THEN BECOMES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND THE GFS
WHICH IS WELL OFFSHORE.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO AWAIT THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR IMPROVED RAOB SAMPLING IN AND AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR
AN IMPROVED CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN ANY CASE...THERE COULD BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST IF WARMER AIR MAKES IT INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MAINE/NEW
HAMPSHIRE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS FROM W TO E THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM KPWM
AND NEWD. WLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE MTNS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHSN
GOING INVOF KHIE INTO TUE...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO LIFR AND IFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS BRIEFLY
THIS MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ME. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN TUE.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
729 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES COULD
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME NOW PULLING AWAY TO THE E. AS
IT DOES SO WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO NWLY...AND STUBBORN SFC TROF
IS EXITING COASTAL ME. MEANINGFUL SN IS WINDING DOWN ATTM...SO SPS
FOR ADDITIONAL SN DURING THE COMMUTE WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 13Z
AS PLANNED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SNFL THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FOCUSED WITHIN
INVERTED SFC TROF...ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE NH/ME BORDER SEWD INTO
THE GULF OF ME. WLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT ISON3 AND
KPSM...QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NWLY AT BUOY 44030 AND WELLS
BEACH...AND NELY FROM KPWM NEWD UP THE COAST. THIS LLVL
CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED IN INTENSIFYING THE SNFL WITHIN THE WIND
SHIFT ZONE. STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST INVOF OF KPWM AND S FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. VERY RECENT
REPORT OF 3.5 INCHES AT KENNEBUNK CONFIRMS THAT A SMALL ZONE OF
3-4 INCH TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. A BLEND OF THE
NERFC...NAM12...AND HRRR QPF ACHIEVED AMOUNTS VERY CLOSE TO THIS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLD 5 INCH REPORT NEAR CAPE
ELIZABETH. SMALL AREAL EXTENT OF THESE HIGHER SNFL TOTALS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY WINTER WX ADVISORY.
WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ME THIS MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EWD. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN -SN FROM W TO
E. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY SLOWING
DOWN THE MORNING COMMUTE. AS WLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA....DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BREAK UP THE CLOUDS SE OF THE MTNS.
THIS SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20S SHOULD HELP THE ROAD
TREATMENT MELT ANY REMAINING SN ON THE ROADS THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CWFA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
THE ST. LAWRENCE. LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT OVER
THE MTNS WILL PRODUCE SOME SHSN THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST
PART OF TUE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
WITH HIGH PRES STILL BUILDING IN MON NIGHT...GRADIENT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT. EVEN A LIGHT BREEZE WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL COOLING. FEEL THE MAV IS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE BRINGING MIN
TEMPS TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA. INSTEAD CHOSE TO
BLEND THE WARMER MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE...AS BEST POTENTIAL COLD LOOKS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN.
THIS INCONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO YIELD A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
FOR THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EURO AND NAM CAMPS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT BY HUGGING THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE CANADIAN
THEN BECOMES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND THE GFS
WHICH IS WELL OFFSHORE.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO AWAIT THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR IMPROVED RAOB SAMPLING IN AND AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR
AN IMPROVED CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN ANY CASE...THERE COULD BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST IF WARMER AIR MAKES IT INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MAINE/NEW
HAMPSHIRE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS FROM W TO E THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM KPWM
AND NEWD. WLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE MTNS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHSN
GOING INVOF KHIE INTO TUE...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO LIFR AND IFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS BRIEFLY
THIS MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ME. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN TUE.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
707 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING STALLED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THAT FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES FROM NEAR THE GULF COAST
TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS PLACES SFC CD FRONT ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WALLOPS TO AKQ TO AHOSKIE NC. SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN MISSOURI VALLEY.
MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE DAY WILL BE WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES S OF THE FA, AS A COLDER AIRMASS
SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE RGN FM THE NNW. WEAKENING/SHEARING S/W ALOFT
WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING INTO ERY
AFTN WITH VERY WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE W/SW.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT MUCH OF LIFT REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT
LATEST RAP DOES DEPICT ENOUGH LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SNEAK OUT A FEW
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE BEST LIFT SHUNTS SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SN...THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A MIX
OF RA/SN ALG SRN EDGE OF PCPN IN COASTAL NE NC. OTW...MCLDY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH...CLDY S. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HI TEMPS TO
BE ACHIEVED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...RANGING FROM THE L/M30S N
(HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 FAR NORTH)...TO M/U30S
S. COULD PICK UP A QUICK DUSTING ON GRASSY SFCS OVER SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE AREA.
SFC HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK TO THE SOUTH. QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE,
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH, MID 20S TO NEAR 30 CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES WELL TO THE NR THE GULF COAST BY 12Z TUE
MRNG...AS SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THERE MAY SOME INCRS IN CLDNS ACRS FAR
SRN VA/NE NC TUE AFTN...OTRW PCLDY AND COLD WX XPCD TUE AS WEAK
CAD STRUCTURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M30S N...TO THE
M/U30S S.
MDLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDWEEK. A ECMWF/UKMET/GGEM
BLEND HAS BEEN USED FOR THIS SYSTEM. OVERALL, LOW PRES IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUE NGT...EVENTUALLY
TRACKING E-NE TO A POSITION NR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY WED.
MOISTURE WILL BE GATHERING S OF THE FA DURING THAT PD...SPREADING
GRADUALLY NNE. THE PREFERRED BLENDED FORECAST TAKES SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MIDDAY WED ALONG THE
NC/VA COASTAL PLAIN TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY THURSDAY MORNING. BY
CONTRAST, THE 00Z/10 GFS CONTINUES WITH A BIT OF A DIFFERENT
SOLUTION...TAKING THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW NEAR CHS WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH
THIS LOW SLIDING OFFSHORE THROUGH THU MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS, CONTINUE TO BELIEVE GFS IS TRENDING
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED CONSENSUS SOLN. IN A
YEAR OF SEVERAL `ATYPICAL` MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEMS...CIPS ANALOGS AND
MODEL CONSENSUS ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL MIXED
BAG TYPE SOLUTION FOR THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ALL MDLS
SHOW COLD SFC HI PRES AREA RETREATING THROUGH NEW ENG (AND TO THE
NE). TRIED HARD TO LEAVE SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE FORECAST WITH SO
MANY QUESTIONS LEFT TO BE ANSWERED (A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY AND
MDL AGREEMENT IS NEEDED AND THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THAT). STILL,
ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM TO WARRANT POPS BEING
SHUNTED INTO LIKELY RANGE WED NGT/THU. HIGHEST POPS RIGHT NOW WILL
BE CONFINED TO SRN PORTIONS TUE NGT (SN)...AND SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS ON WED (SN EVENTUALLY BECOMING MIXED PHASE PTYPE).
CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE THE LONGEST OVER THE PIEDMONT...IF IT OCCURS
AT ALL.IT IS THIS AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL HEADLINES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PACKAGES.
FOR TEMPS, RODE THE LOWER ENVELOP OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE TEENS TO ARND 20F N AND NW...W/
M20S TO ARND 30F SE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L30S NW TO L40S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ENERGY
PHASING INTO A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF STATES LATE WEDS INTO
THURS. STRONG SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...EJECTING THE FEATURE NEWD THURS MORNING. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL BE ONGOING TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. SFC LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS WED NIGHT INTO THURS
MORNING. BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE IN STRONGEST
RETURN FLOW...BUT EXPECT MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO GO ALONG
WITH UVM PROVIDED BY INCREASING FLOW ALOFT (DIVERGENCE) AND HEIGHT
FALLS (SHORTWAVE). HAVE INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WED NIGHT-THURS MORNING AS CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.
WHILE THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE IS WARMER THAN ITS GFS
COUNTERPART...A BLEND OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REVEAL A MIXED BAG OF
PTYPES OVER THE REGION. TO BACK UP WARMER GUIDANCE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NE COAST (RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW) AS
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT-THURS
MORNING (TEMPS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL). EXPECT THE COAST TO
REMAIN RAIN WHILE INLAND WILL TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN-SNOW WITH
SOME SLEET TO ALL RAIN BY THURS AFTERNOON. STILL TO EARLY TO
DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WEDS-WEDS
NIGHT WILL LIKELY MELT THURS. SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND LIFT
NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE THURS...ALLOWING PRECIP TO COME TO AN
END OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
A WINTRY MIX OVER THE NE THRU THURS NIGHT. CAA LIKELY ARRIVES TO
LATE TO POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS INDICATED IN THE
ECMWF. WPC QPF FORECAST FROM OVER AN INCH SE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH
NW FROM WEDS MORNING THRU FRI MORNING. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE 40S THURS AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP PREVENT TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THEREAFTER...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL NRN STREAM ENERGY IMPACTS
THE EAST. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE ERN SEABOARD
FRI-SAT...LIKELY PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...AS IT TYPICAL WITH NRN STREAM
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL ALSO REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NW TO LOW-MID 50S SE FRI-SUN.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
MID 30S SE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SAGGED SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SEND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD AND KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS OFF THE COAST. AT THAT
POINT...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TOIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION/POOR
AVIATION CONDITIONS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWLY SLID SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT..CLEARING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GETTING DOWN JUST NORTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER THIS MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE
WINDS A LITTLE THIS MORNING...DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. AT
THIS TIME...LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 8Z AND 9Z...ARE NOT
SHOWING A STRONG INCREASE AT THIS TIME. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION STILL MOVING IN...EXPECT
TO SEE SOME LOW END SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR WINDS.
THE SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO CALM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUT NOT CERTAIN THEY WILL STAY UP AS LONG A CURRENT COASTAL
ADVISORIES INDICATE. BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ADVISORIES WITH CURRENT
TIMING...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
CONDITIONS DO BEGIN TO IMPROVED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD LIGHTER WINDS...BUT WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE TO THE
NE...COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE SWELL BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY FROM WED INTO THURSDAY AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WOULD COMBINE WITH A RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND TO GREATLY INCREASE THE WINDS AND THE SEAS. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW AND WOULD
LIKELY LEAD TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER
TO THE WEST AND THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG...BUT THE PERSISTENT NE
FLOW WILL LIKELY STILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FT. SO FOR
NOW...HAVE INCREASE THE SEAS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT INCREASES THE WINDS AS AN OFF SHORE TRACK
WOULD LEAD TO WINDS NEAR WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT WOULD STILL
SUPPORT THE INCREASED SEAS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ630>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ESS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
932 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AROUND AND WEST OF OSCODA...AND ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. PLENTY OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS
WELL ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO (THE NORM FOR THIS WINTER). NOT MUCH
WIND SO WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GETTING OUT OF LINE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY...FORECAST UPDATES FOR CURRENT
TRENDS ONLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
THOUGH THE BAND IS BECOMING LESS VISIBLE...GRB RADAR INDICATES THE
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE LES BAND HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARD THE
COAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AT LEAST AT FKS IT AS AT THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY 1 1/4SM VSBY. THIS BAND WAS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NEARLY 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES...BACK WHEN IT EXITED
THE COAST NEAR MBL LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOSS OF THE BAND ON
GRB RADAR (AND IT/S LACK OF APPEARANCE ON APX) PERHAPS MEANS THIS
BAND IS WEAKENING...BUT THIS IS NOT A SAFE ASSUMPTION GIVEN THE
DISTANCE FROM THE TWO RADARS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WE ARE
GRADUALLY ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE REGIME FOR GOOD SNOW
RATIOS...AS 850MB ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LOWERING BELOW -20C.
STILL...WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SNEAKY/FLUFFY INCH OR 2 THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST FROM
THE DUNES SOUTHWARD.
HAVE AMPED UP SNOW WORDING ALONG THAT PART OF THE LAKE MI COAST.
OTHERWISE...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS...WITH SOME
PERIODIC BREAKS IN NE LOWER AND WESTERN MACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
GO FIGURE! NORTHERN LAKES ONCE AGAIN WELCOMING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WITH HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING
-20C H8 TEMPERATURE PUSHING INTO OUR AREA...AND EVEN COLDER READINGS
JUST UPSTREAM (MID -20S H8 OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR).
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT JUST AS COLD...ESPECIALLY UPWIND OF THE
BIG PONDS...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON THE BAD SIDE
OF ZERO ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ONTARIO. COLD AIR AND WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOING THEIR BEST TO DRUM UP SOME RESPECTABLE LAKE RESPONSE.
LAKE ICE SAYS OTHERWISE...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY...WITH EMPHASIS
PLACED ON LAKE SNOW...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
LAKE SNOWS SET TO CONTINUE TODAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES
ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN
BACKGROUND MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. FLOW ESSENTIALLY
REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS MENTIONED FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...LAKE
ICE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK BOTH SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER NOW RELEGATED TO AN
AREA WEST OF LEELANAU PENINSULA AND POINTS SOUTH (EVEN
HERE...EARLIER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF FLOATING ICE).
COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND H8 INVERSION LEVELS WILL FURTHER
NEGATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY. UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
NORTH...LAKE SUPERIOR ALL BUT FROZEN...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED OPEN
POCKETS OF WATER...SUGGESTING JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING SUN WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DAYTIME EXPANSION
TO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT NO BIG DEAL
FOR SURE. BIGGER STORY TODAY LIKELY TO BE THE TEMPERATURES...WITH
PERSISTENT CAA AND LIMITED LAKE MODIFICATION KEEPING MANY AREAS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. WINDS DON`T GET TOO OUT OF
HAND...BUT ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILL READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO (BUT SHORT OF ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA).
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS TAKING THEIR
COLLECTIVE TOLL ON LAKE PROCESSES HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY...AND ONE STRICTLY BASED OFF
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS GOING CALM/LIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH DECAYING LAKE PROCESSES AND LIGHT
WINDS...FEEL AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND INTERIOR UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS...ALLOWING READINGS TO TANK. WILL
CONTINUE TREND SET FORTH BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS...UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES. WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS
(-20?) EXPECTED WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOWS A TOUCH "WARMER"
ELSEWHERE...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
SOMEWHAT LENGTHY PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN IT/S WAKE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REBOUND...TUE AND TUE NIGHT STILL
LOOK QUITE COLD. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS ON A SLIGHT UPWARD
SWING...BUT ALONG WITH THAT COME SOME CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW.
PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TUESDAY...AT THE START OF THE DAY...WEAK (5-10KT) NW 1000-85MB FLOW
IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY EAST OF
LAKE HURON...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER MINUS TEENS. THOSE WINDS
WILL BACK SW OVER LAKE MI AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z...AND WILL BE
SSW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI BY 00Z. BY THEN...850MB TEMPS WILL
HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER MINUS TEENS. HOWEVER...VERY COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BELOW THAT...WITH 925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER
MINUS TEENS EVEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WON/T PLAY OUT HERE ON TERRA FIRMA. ONCE AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SHSN IN THE MORNING...BUT AS THE COLD AIR GETS SHALLOWER THAT
SHOULD SEGUE INTO JUST FLURRIES IN THE PM IN THE SW FLOW REGIME.
TUE NIGHT/WED...LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THRU THESE PERIODS...OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY WORKS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON. THE SW FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY...BUT A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS IOWA/WI/UPPER MI
TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF FADING OUT...THE PRE-FRONTAL
WILL TEND TO DO LIKEWISE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MI.
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR BELOW 800MB WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FOR TUE NIGHT...CHANCY POPS CAN
BE CONFINED TO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES VERY LATE. PRECIP SHOULD
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH AND MOMENTUM TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS IN
EASTERN UPPER WED MORNING (ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OR SO)...WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN MI...AND NO PRECIP
SE OF AN HTL-APN LINE.
PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR CLEARING AWAY FROM LAKE MI TUE NIGHT...BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE VERY LATE. SO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SUB-ZERO MINS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS
CLOSER TO LAKE MI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
20F...WITH A SOMEWHAT BRISK S TO SW WIND.
REST OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN 1000-850MB
WINDS AND TEMP ADVECTION WED NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT DIES
OVERHEAD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ON TIMING A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPPER MI.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL OF COURSE HINDERED BY A LACK OF OPEN WATER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN MAX TEMPS NEED TO A
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO. BACK INTO THE TEENS THRU THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
MOSTLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR AT MBL (AND PERIODS OF IFR THIS MORNING).
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION ON A LIGHTISH NW WIND. NOT
MUCH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE SHSN...BUT TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL WILL
REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME FLURRIES/SHSN. FOR MBL...AN EARLIER
DOMINANT BAND IS STARTING TO BACK UP TOWARD THE COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY INDUCE IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATOCU OUT THERE...MOSTLY VFR (WOULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES THOUGH).
LIGHT NW WIND BY MIDDAY TODAY...BECOMING NEARLY CALM AGAIN
TONIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
651 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
THOUGH THE BAND IS BECOMING LESS VISIBLE...GRB RADAR INDICATES THE
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE LES BAND HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARD THE
COAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AT LEAST AT FKS IT AS AT THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY 1 1/4SM VSBY. THIS BAND WAS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NEARLY 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES...BACK WHEN IT EXITED
THE COAST NEAR MBL LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOSS OF THE BAND ON
GRB RADAR (AND IT/S LACK OF APPEARANCE ON APX) PERHAPS MEANS THIS
BAND IS WEAKENING...BUT THIS IS NOT A SAFE ASSUMPTION GIVEN THE
DISTANCE FROM THE TWO RADARS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WE ARE
GRADUALLY ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE REGIME FOR GOOD SNOW
RATIOS...AS 850MB ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LOWERING BELOW -20C.
STILL...WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SNEAKY/FLUFFY INCH OR 2 THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST FROM
THE DUNES SOUTHWARD.
HAVE AMPED UP SNOW WORDING ALONG THAT PART OF THE LAKE MI COAST.
OTHERWISE...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS...WITH SOME
PERIODIC BREAKS IN NE LOWER AND WESTERN MACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
GO FIGURE! NORTHERN LAKES ONCE AGAIN WELCOMING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WITH HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING
-20C H8 TEMPERATURE PUSHING INTO OUR AREA...AND EVEN COLDER READINGS
JUST UPSTREAM (MID -20S H8 OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR).
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT JUST AS COLD...ESPECIALLY UPWIND OF THE
BIG PONDS...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON THE BAD SIDE
OF ZERO ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ONTARIO. COLD AIR AND WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOING THEIR BEST TO DRUM UP SOME RESPECTABLE LAKE RESPONSE.
LAKE ICE SAYS OTHERWISE...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY...WITH EMPHASIS
PLACED ON LAKE SNOW...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
LAKE SNOWS SET TO CONTINUE TODAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES
ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN
BACKGROUND MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. FLOW ESSENTIALLY
REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS MENTIONED FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...LAKE
ICE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK BOTH SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER NOW RELEGATED TO AN
AREA WEST OF LEELANAU PENINSULA AND POINTS SOUTH (EVEN
HERE...EARLIER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF FLOATING ICE).
COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND H8 INVERSION LEVELS WILL FURTHER
NEGATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY. UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
NORTH...LAKE SUPERIOR ALL BUT FROZEN...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED OPEN
POCKETS OF WATER...SUGGESTING JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING SUN WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DAYTIME EXPANSION
TO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT NO BIG DEAL
FOR SURE. BIGGER STORY TODAY LIKELY TO BE THE TEMPERATURES...WITH
PERSISTENT CAA AND LIMITED LAKE MODIFICATION KEEPING MANY AREAS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. WINDS DON`T GET TOO OUT OF
HAND...BUT ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILL READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO (BUT SHORT OF ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA).
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS TAKING THEIR
COLLECTIVE TOLL ON LAKE PROCESSES HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY...AND ONE STRICTLY BASED OFF
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS GOING CALM/LIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH DECAYING LAKE PROCESSES AND LIGHT
WINDS...FEEL AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND INTERIOR UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS...ALLOWING READINGS TO TANK. WILL
CONTINUE TREND SET FORTH BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS...UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES. WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS
(-20?) EXPECTED WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOWS A TOUCH "WARMER"
ELSEWHERE...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
SOMEWHAT LENGTHY PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN IT/S WAKE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REBOUND...TUE AND TUE NIGHT STILL
LOOK QUITE COLD. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS ON A SLIGHT UPWARD
SWING...BUT ALONG WITH THAT COME SOME CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW.
PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TUESDAY...AT THE START OF THE DAY...WEAK (5-10KT) NW 1000-85MB FLOW
IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY EAST OF
LAKE HURON...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER MINUS TEENS. THOSE WINDS
WILL BACK SW OVER LAKE MI AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z...AND WILL BE
SSW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI BY 00Z. BY THEN...850MB TEMPS WILL
HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER MINUS TEENS. HOWEVER...VERY COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BELOW THAT...WITH 925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER
MINUS TEENS EVEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WON/T PLAY OUT HERE ON TERRA FIRMA. ONCE AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SHSN IN THE MORNING...BUT AS THE COLD AIR GETS SHALLOWER THAT
SHOULD SEGUE INTO JUST FLURRIES IN THE PM IN THE SW FLOW REGIME.
TUE NIGHT/WED...LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THRU THESE PERIODS...OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY WORKS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON. THE SW FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY...BUT A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS IOWA/WI/UPPER MI
TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF FADING OUT...THE PRE-FRONTAL
WILL TEND TO DO LIKEWISE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MI.
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR BELOW 800MB WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FOR TUE NIGHT...CHANCY POPS CAN
BE CONFINED TO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES VERY LATE. PRECIP SHOULD
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH AND MOMENTUM TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS IN
EASTERN UPPER WED MORNING (ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OR SO)...WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN MI...AND NO PRECIP
SE OF AN HTL-APN LINE.
PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR CLEARING AWAY FROM LAKE MI TUE NIGHT...BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE VERY LATE. SO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SUB-ZERO MINS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS
CLOSER TO LAKE MI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
20F...WITH A SOMEWHAT BRISK S TO SW WIND.
REST OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN 1000-850MB
WINDS AND TEMP ADVECTION WED NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT DIES
OVERHEAD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ON TIMING A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPPER MI.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL OF COURSE HINDERED BY A LACK OF OPEN WATER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN MAX TEMPS NEED TO A
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO. BACK INTO THE TEENS THRU THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
MOSTLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR AT MBL (AND PERIODS OF IFR THIS MORNING).
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION ON A LIGHTISH NW WIND. NOT
MUCH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE SHSN...BUT TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL WILL
REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME FLURRIES/SHSN. FOR MBL...AN EARLIER
DOMINANT BAND IS STARTING TO BACK UP TOWARD THE COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY INDUCE IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATOCU OUT THERE...MOSTLY VFR (WOULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES THOUGH).
LIGHT NW WIND BY MIDDAY TODAY...BECOMING NEARLY CALM AGAIN
TONIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
540 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
Another band of snow is moving across southwest Missouri this
morning. The band looks to be associated with a subtle shortwave
headed east-southeast through Kansas into western Missouri at this
time. RAP is showing some weak to moderate low level frontogenesis
over southwest Missouri and the left exit region of an upper level
jet streak is likely adding some divergence aloft to aid in lift.
These features all wash out by mid morning. Still think we could
see a dusting across our far southern counties before the band falls
apart. Elsewhere and otherwise...a 1035mb high is building across
the Midwest bringing another surge of Arctic air. Should see
decreasing clouds this afternoon...but with cold advection
continuing went near or just below coldest guidance numbers across
the area. Wind chill advisory still looks to be in good shape so
will let it continue as is. Will see a clear or mostly clear sky
tonight as the under the influence of the Arctic high. There may be
some mid/high clouds to contend with, but for the most part there
should be excellent radiational cooling conditions...especially over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois closest to the center
of the high where the wind will be light and variable or calm.
Generally undercut guidance by a few degrees everywhere, but went 5
to 6 degrees colder up north. If there`s any wind whatsoever we
might need another wind chill advisory tonight up north, but will
let the day shift make that determination.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
After the cold start Tuesday morning we`ll be hard pressed to
break out of the teens and lower 20s Tuesday afternoon. Another
trof of low pressure will dip into the Midwest Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. While the shortwave looks pretty stout,
it looks like moisture will be lacking, so have stuck with only
slight chance pops. Increasing clouds and southerly flow should
keep temperatures up a little in relation to Tuesday morning`s
lows. Still, stuck pretty close to the coldest guidance for
Wednesday morning lows.
Temperatures still look to moderate for the latter half of the week
with highs Wednesday near or even a bit above freezing, especially
across the eastern Ozarks down the I-44 corridor. Stout
south-southwest flow on Thursday south of a clipper which will move
across the Upper Midwest should push temperatures into the upper 30s
to mid 40s. The cold front associated with the clipper will sweep
through the area Thursday night, providing a brief cool down
primarily for the northern half of the CWFA on Friday. Southerly
flow is reestablished Saturday ahead of another clipper keeping
temps up mainly in the 40s. Some timing differences in the medium
range models on when the clipper will pass and how much cold
advection there will be behind it for Sunday. For now have stuck
pretty close to guidance which keeps temps in the 40s.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 454 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
A ripple in the flow has produced a band of snow overnight from SE
KS into SW MO. Model guidance indicates this band should weaken as
it progresses east...but there could be some light snow and/or
flurries across the ern Ozarks this morning. Otherwise expect
decreasing cloudiness and nrly winds aob 10 kts thru the period.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR fcst with rising CIGs this morning and N/NE winds aob 10 kts
thru the prd.
2%
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
RECORD MINS AND LOW MAXES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
STL COU UIN
RECORD MINS 2/10 -9/1982 -12/1899 -10/1982
2/11 -9/1899 -21/1899 -12/1981
LO MAXES 2/10 7/1889 4/1899 8/1936
2/11 5/1981 1/1899 1/1981
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 13 -1 19 10 / 5 0 0 0
Quincy 8 -11 13 5 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 13 -2 19 11 / 5 5 0 0
Jefferson City 16 0 21 9 / 5 5 0 0
Salem 15 1 19 9 / 0 0 0 0
Farmington 18 1 22 8 / 20 5 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
907 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES EARLY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES TUESDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NE KY AND S WV AS OF 06Z. AREA OF MID LEVEL
LIFT MAXIMIZED OVER E KY AND THE S COAL FIELDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN A
BIT NEXT SEVERAL HRS BY LATEST RUC. HRRR AGREES...WEAKENING
OVERALL MESO BAND AND SHIFTING IT SE BY 10Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS
IN FROM NW. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS LAWRENCE
CO KY...WITH HALF AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE. THINK AROUND AN INCH
ON AVG ACROSS NE KY/S WV BEFORE EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN. MAY SEE
SOME LOLLIPOP 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS...IN
PARTICULAR S MINGO AND S LOGAN CO. HAVE AN SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS
AND SLICK TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BREAK OUT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY WITH
JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU. NE KY/S WV/SW VA IN CROSS-HAIRS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE W. EVEN HERE THOUGH...SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT WITH MANY PLACES UNDER A FAIR SKY.
FOR TEMPS...RAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LATEST LAMP/HRRR WHICH
RESULTED IN SHAVING OFF A TICK OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GENERALLY 20S OUTSIDE OF MTNS...WITH SOME TEENS AOA 3KFT. FOR
TONIGHT...QUITE COLD WITH SOME DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BLO
ZERO READINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH WITH PERRY CO PROBABLY
BEING THE COLD SPOT YET AGAIN. GENERALLY LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE
WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SUSPECT SOME N LOWLAND COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO AS
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD IS THEN
CONSIDERABLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET
WOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OVER THE REGION. GFS/SREF
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF HAS HAD
A HABIT OF ADVERTISING THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM NUMEROUS TIMES IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...BUT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER ALWAYS BACKS
OFF. GFS HAS HAD A MUCH BETTER TRACK RECORD WITH NOT SHOWING THE BIG
ONE. IN ADDITION...THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE WEST...AND HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST AS A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION. JUST BE AWARE...THAT THE EXTREMES ARE POSSIBLE...AS
IN MAJOR STORM...OR NO STORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EITHER UP...OR OFF...THE E COAST...ON THU.
THE SYSTEM DEPENDS UPON A NEGATIVE TILT S/W TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST CAN THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOW MUCH IT CLOSES OFF
/HOW INTENSE IT BECOMES/...AND THEREFORE...HOW MUCH THE STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS A WEAKER S/W TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN DIGGING FEATURE. THIS MAY SHUNT THE SYSTEM EWD LONGER
WED NT...SO THAT...EVEN IT IT DOES THEN TURN N THU MORNING...IT
WILL HAVE ALREADY OUT-FLANKED...OR MOVED AROUND...THE FCST AREA...BY
THEN.
THE GEM IS MOST INTENSE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWFHIRES IS
FARTHEST W...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR W AS AT LEAST ITS LAST THREE
RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS E OF THE OHIO RIVER WED NT INTO THU TO REFLECT
THE COMPROMISE/WPC SOLN HERE...WITH ONLY A SCHC FARTHER W.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE OUT W...BUT THE PATTERN ALSO REMAINS NOT
VERY AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE THE FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE COLD
OUTBREAKS NOT THAT COLD. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS...THIS
LIKELY FAVORS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE WED NT-THU E COAST
SYSTEM. IT ALSO MEANS THAT SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT.
A COLD FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY A S/W TROUGH AS THE
L/W ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT THEN. THE FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS ITSELF
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT INCREASE WITH FCST PROJECTION TIME...SO
THAT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND NATURE OF ANY
SYSTEM TRAVERSING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL AND A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS IN SOME CASES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
MESO BAND OF -SN WILL CONT TO WEAKEN TO JUST FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING AFTER 12Z ACROSS S COAL FIELDS AND SE WV PLATEAU. DRIER
AIR WORKS IN THIS MORNING HELPING TO SCT OUT THE MVFR CIGS FOR A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TDY AMID SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S
TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR STRATOCU REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
N TERMINALS MIDDAY ONWARD. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
WNW LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WITH 5 TO 15 KT NW SURFACE
FLOW...SLACKENING TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE
PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
548 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES EARLY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES TUESDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE... MESO BAND WEAKENING AS EXPECTED OVER THE S COAL
FIELDS AND SE WV PLATEAU. EXPECT CONT WEAKENING TO JUST SOME
FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING AROUND SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS POINT. RE-UPPED THE SPS EARLIER FOR
POSSIBLE SLICK TRAVEL FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NE KY AND S WV AS OF 06Z. AREA OF MID LEVEL
LIFT MAXIMIZED OVER E KY AND THE S COAL FIELDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN A
BIT NEXT SEVERAL HRS BY LATEST RUC. HRRR AGREES...WEAKENING
OVERALL MESO BAND AND SHIFTING IT SE BY 10Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS
IN FROM NW. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS LAWRENCE
CO KY...WITH HALF AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE. THINK AROUND AN INCH
ON AVG ACROSS NE KY/S WV BEFORE EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN. MAY SEE
SOME LOLLIPOP 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS...IN
PARTICULAR S MINGO AND S LOGAN CO. HAVE AN SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS
AND SLICK TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BREAK OUT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY WITH
JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU. NE KY/S WV/SW VA IN CROSS-HAIRS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE W. EVEN HERE THOUGH...SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT WITH MANY PLACES UNDER A FAIR SKY.
FOR TEMPS...RAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LATEST LAMP/HRRR WHICH
RESULTED IN SHAVING OFF A TICK OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GENERALLY 20S OUTSIDE OF MTNS...WITH SOME TEENS AOA 3KFT. FOR
TONIGHT...QUITE COLD WITH SOME DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BLO
ZERO READINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH WITH PERRY CO PROBABLY
BEING THE COLD SPOT YET AGAIN. GENERALLY LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE
WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SUSPECT SOME N LOWLAND COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO AS
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD IS THEN
CONSIDERABLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET
WOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OVER THE REGION. GFS/SREF
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF HAS HAD
A HABIT OF ADVERTISING THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM NUMEROUS TIMES IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...BUT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER ALWAYS BACKS
OFF. GFS HAS HAD A MUCH BETTER TRACK RECORD WITH NOT SHOWING THE BIG
ONE. IN ADDITION...THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE WEST...AND HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST AS A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION. JUST BE AWARE...THAT THE EXTREMES ARE POSSIBLE...AS
IN MAJOR STORM...OR NO STORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EITHER UP...OR OFF...THE E COAST...ON THU.
THE SYSTEM DEPENDS UPON A NEGATIVE TILT S/W TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST CAN THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOW MUCH IT CLOSES OFF
/HOW INTENSE IT BECOMES/...AND THEREFORE...HOW MUCH THE STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS A WEAKER S/W TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN DIGGING FEATURE. THIS MAY SHUNT THE SYSTEM EWD LONGER
WED NT...SO THAT...EVEN IT IT DOES THEN TURN N THU MORNING...IT
WILL HAVE ALREADY OUT-FLANKED...OR MOVED AROUND...THE FCST AREA...BY
THEN.
THE GEM IS MOST INTENSE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWFHIRES IS
FARTHEST W...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR W AS AT LEAST ITS LAST THREE
RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS E OF THE OHIO RIVER WED NT INTO THU TO REFLECT
THE COMPROMISE/WPC SOLN HERE...WITH ONLY A SCHC FARTHER W.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE OUT W...BUT THE PATTERN ALSO REMAINS NOT
VERY AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE THE FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE COLD
OUTBREAKS NOT THAT COLD. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS...THIS
LIKELY FAVORS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE WED NT-THU E COAST
SYSTEM. IT ALSO MEANS THAT SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT.
A COLD FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY A S/W TROUGH AS THE
L/W ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT THEN. THE FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS ITSELF
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT INCREASE WITH FCST PROJECTION TIME...SO
THAT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND NATURE OF ANY
SYSTEM TRAVERSING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL AND A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS IN SOME CASES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
MESO BAND OF -SN WILL CONT TO WEAKEN TO JUST FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING AFTER 12Z ACROSS S COAL FIELDS AND SE WV PLATEAU. DRIER
AIR WORKS IN THIS MORNING HELPING TO SCT OUT THE MVFR CIGS FOR A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TDY AMID SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S
TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR STRATOCU REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
N TERMINALS MIDDAY ONWARD. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
WNW LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WITH 5 TO 15 KT NW SURFACE
FLOW...SLACKENING TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M H M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE
PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1140 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SPOTTER REPORTS IN THE GUNNISON AREA NOW UP
OVER 6 INCHES WITH HEAVY SNOW STILL FALLING. HAVE ADDED THIS AREA
TO THE MIX OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS WE GO MORE CONVECTIVE. HAVE ALSO ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUANS AS ENERGY ON THE TAIL END OF PASSING WAVE DRAGS
THROUGH AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS SHORTLY. NEGATIVE MOTIONS MOVE IN
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON...SO
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED THE DENSE FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO "EXPIRE".
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF MOIST WAVES IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WRN
COLORADO TODAY. RAP MODEL SHOW WIDESPREAD PCPN AND UPDATED POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING AND ACTIVITY WANES THIS
AFTERNOON. DID MAKE ON ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR
THE FAR SOUTH. IN HOUSE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL GUIDANCE AND THE DAY
ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS FROM MONUMENT
VALLEY TO DURANGO. INTRODUCED AFTERNOON THUNDER IN THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
REGARDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WRN COLORADO VALLEYS...APPEARS
THERE WILL BE NO NEED TO EXTEND IT AS RAIN AS CAUSED MIXING WITH
VISIBILITY ABOVE 1 MILE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE NEXT WAVE IN THIS MOIST PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS ARRIVING TO OUR
WESTERN DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE 00Z
RAOB PUSHING ABOVE THE HALF INCH MARK THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING. UNFORTUNATELY THE LIFT WAS NOT VERY ORGANIZED TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION REPORTS FOR THE MOST
PART WERE ON THE LOW SIDE. MOST REPORTING SITES AND WEB CAMS HAVE
SHOWN LULL THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CONSIDERED LOWERING OR REPLACING
HEADLINES FOR TODAY. HOWEVER IN THE END WITH ROAD CONDITIONS STILL
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY DECIDED TO LEAVE AS IS. THE
SAN JUANS WILL BE DROPPING OUT THIS MORNING...AND THOUGH THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY AIDED SNOW EVENT ON MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY
FLOW...DECIDED AGAINST ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AND THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
WITH THE UPPER WAVE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE WITH SOME HIGH AMOUNTS LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE HIGHER PEAKS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING
THROUGH OUR WEST CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE ROTATING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE JET TAKES A DIP SOUTHWARD. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING A DISTINCT DARKENING THIS MORNING MARKING A DIP IN THE TROP
AS AN ILL DEFINED COUPLED JET MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. BOTH
GFS/NAM SHOW THE AXIS OF DILITATION IN THE 650MB REGION FAVORABLE
FOR TIGHTENING THE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVER OUR WEST
CENTRAL CWA...BUT VARY IN WHERE THIS EXACTLY SETS UP. WITH THE
INSTABILITY ARRIVING WITH THE PUSH OF THE LOWERING TROP...SOME BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION/SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVZY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TAVAPUTS AND NORTHERN UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE MONITORED. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON FAVORING THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO END THIS LONG TERM
EVENT. THERE IS CAA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LIKE THE THERMAL
PROFILE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THOUGH PASSING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP SOME HEAVIER SNOW. BEHIND THE WAVE THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY DRIES OUT AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES COOL AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD DROP HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH THE NEW AIR MASS
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WILL SETTLE IN
FOR TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
ON THE HEELS OF A POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT LASTS INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CONUS AND PLACES UTAH AND COLORADO IN WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS THE PREFERRED WIND DIRECTION FOR OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAIN AREAS (PARK/GORE RANGES).
FIRST SHORT WAVE BARELY SKIRTS NRN ROUTT COUNTY ON TUESDAY EVENING...
BUT THE SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE THAT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
STRONGER WITH TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW. PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING
SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC SNOWS FOR THE PARK/GORE RANGES. BUT THERE
ARE TAKEAWAYS...THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS ANTICYCLONIC AND GRADIENT
FLOW WANES WITH TIME. WARMING ALOFT ALLOWS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGIME TO EXIST ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION. QG DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. WILL MONITOR QPF PROGS AND ENSEMBLE
CHARTS TO ASSESS SNOW POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY FOR THE COLORADO NWRN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH PASS. THE CHANCE OF SNOW DIMINISHES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM AND GRADIENT
FLOW LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WARM RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO BY SATURDAY
AND RESULTS IN TEMPS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MEX MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...BUT BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS LIKELY RUNNING TOO COLD GIVEN THE COOL
REGIME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (MOST NOTABLY THE NRN/CENTRAL
VALLEYS...LESS SO FOR THE SRN VALLEYS). HAVE BLENDED THESE VALUES
THAT ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. THE RESULT IS TEMPS ROUGHLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THAT RESEMBLES EARLY SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
SNOW LEVEL CURRENTLY AROUND 6000 FT MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATER THIS
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING DRIVES THE SNOW LEVEL UP.
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED IN EASTERN UT AND WILL CONTINUE TO STOP
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN CO AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING TODAY WITH
UNSTABLE AIR STILL PRESENT. FOG WILL DRIVE DOWN VSBYS TONIGHT AS
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
MOST SITES...BUT PARTICULARLY AT KGJT...KMTJ...AND KCNY. MTNS WILL
BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED DUE TO FOG.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING COZ018-019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
COZ004-010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED THE DENSE FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO "EXPIRE".
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF MOIST WAVES IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WRN
COLORADO TODAY. RAP MODEL SHOW WIDESPREAD PCPN AND UPDATED POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING AND ACTIVITY WANES THIS
AFTERNOON. DID MAKE ON ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR
THE FAR SOUTH. IN HOUSE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL GUIDANCE AND THE DAY
ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS FROM MONUMENT
VALLEY TO DURANGO. INTRODUCED AFTERNOON THUNDER IN THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
REGARDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WRN COLORADO VALLEYS...APPEARS
THERE WILL BE NO NEED TO EXTEND IT AS RAIN AS CAUSED MIXING WITH
VISIBILITY ABOVE 1 MILE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
THE NEXT WAVE IN THIS MOIST PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS ARRIVING TO OUR
WESTERN DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE 00Z
RAOB PUSHING ABOVE THE HALF INCH MARK THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING. UNFORTUNATELY THE LIFT WAS NOT VERY ORGANIZED TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION REPORTS FOR THE MOST
PART WERE ON THE LOW SIDE. MOST REPORTING SITES AND WEB CAMS HAVE
SHOWN LULL THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CONSIDERED LOWERING OR REPLACING
HEADLINES FOR TODAY. HOWEVER IN THE END WITH ROAD CONDITIONS STILL
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY DECIDED TO LEAVE AS IS. THE
SAN JUANS WILL BE DROPPING OUT THIS MORNING...AND THOUGH THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY AIDED SNOW EVENT ON MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY
FLOW...DECIDED AGAINST ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AND THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
WITH THE UPPER WAVE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE WITH SOME HIGH AMOUNTS LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE HIGHER PEAKS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING
THROUGH OUR WEST CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE ROTATING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE JET TAKES A DIP SOUTHWARD. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING A DISTINCT DARKENING THIS MORNING MARKING A DIP IN THE TROP
AS AN ILL DEFINED COUPLED JET MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. BOTH
GFS/NAM SHOW THE AXIS OF DILITATION IN THE 650MB REGION FAVORABLE
FOR TIGHTENING THE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVER OUR WEST
CENTRAL CWA...BUT VARY IN WHERE THIS EXACTLY SETS UP. WITH THE
INSTABILITY ARRIVING WITH THE PUSH OF THE LOWERING TROP...SOME BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION/SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVZY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TAVAPUTS AND NORTHERN UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAUS...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE MONITORED. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON FAVORING THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO END THIS LONG TERM
EVENT. THERE IS CAA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT LIKE THE THERMAL
PROFILE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THOUGH PASSING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP SOME HEAVIER SNOW. BEHIND THE WAVE THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY DRIES OUT AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMING AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES COOL AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD DROP HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH THE NEW AIR MASS
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WILL SETTLE IN
FOR TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
ON THE HEELS OF A POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT LASTS INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CONUS AND PLACES UTAH AND COLORADO IN WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS THE PREFERRED WIND DIRECTION FOR OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAIN AREAS (PARK/GORE RANGES).
FIRST SHORT WAVE BARELY SKIRTS NRN ROUTT COUNTY ON TUESDAY EVENING...
BUT THE SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE THAT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
STRONGER WITH TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW. PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING
SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC SNOWS FOR THE PARK/GORE RANGES. BUT THERE
ARE TAKEAWAYS...THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS ANTICYCLONIC AND GRADIENT
FLOW WANES WITH TIME. WARMING ALOFT ALLOWS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGIME TO EXIST ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION. QG DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. WILL MONITOR QPF PROGS AND ENSEMBLE
CHARTS TO ASSESS SNOW POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY FOR THE COLORADO NWRN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH PASS. THE CHANCE OF SNOW DIMINISHES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM AND GRADIENT
FLOW LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WARM RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO BY SATURDAY
AND RESULTS IN TEMPS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MEX MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...BUT BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS LIKELY RUNNING TOO COLD GIVEN THE COOL
REGIME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (MOST NOTABLY THE NRN/CENTRAL
VALLEYS...LESS SO FOR THE SRN VALLEYS). HAVE BLENDED THESE VALUES
THAT ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. THE RESULT IS TEMPS ROUGHLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THAT RESEMBLES EARLY SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
SNOW LEVEL CURRENTLY AROUND 6000 FT MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATER THIS
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING DRIVES THE SNOW LEVEL UP.
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED IN EASTERN UT AND WILL CONTINUE TO STOP
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN CO AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING TODAY WITH
UNSTABLE AIR STILL PRESENT. FOG WILL DRIVE DOWN VSBYS TONIGHT AS
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
MOST SITES...BUT PARTICULARLY AT KGJT...KMTJ...AND KCNY. MTNS WILL
BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED DUE TO FOG.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
COZ004-010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
954 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED JUST ENOUGH TO LET THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS
EXPECTED...SO WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH NOON. ON THE
PLAINS...RADAR ECHOES HAVE INCREASED ON THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS...SINCE IT SHOULD ONLY SNOW FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AT BEST. THE LATEST RAP MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS BY
ABOUT 21Z AS THE DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
OKAY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...HAVE BEGUN TO SEE INDICATIONS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL
BE RAPIDLY IMPROVING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS...WE SHOULD SEE INCREASED
VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK UP THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS TRAPPING ALL THE FOG OVER THE AREA. A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES MAY MOVE OVER THE AIRPORTS THROUGH ABOUT 22Z...BUT
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...SNOWFALL AND WINDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH LET UP IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY AT THIS HOUR WITH THE FCST AREA IN BETWEEN WAVES OF
MOISTURE RICH PACIFIC AIR. MTN CAMS HARDLY SHOWING ANY SNOWFALL
ON THE PASSES AND UP AT THE EISENHOWER TUNNEL. THAT WILL LIKELY
CHANGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
WAVES OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WAVE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP CURRENTLY PASSING OVER NORTHERN
UTAH/SWRN WYOMING. AT ITS CURRENT SPEED...BEST MOISTURE AND QG
LIFT WILL PASS OVER THE NRN MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS OF COLORADO
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. IT WILL BE A QUICK SHOT WITH NOT MUCH
WIND AS THE STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
LOCAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL INPUTTING THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS...
6.5C/KM LAPSE RATE...275 DEG 25KT 700-500MB MEAN WIND...NEG 3 QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY...MOIST LAYER TO 600 MBS AND A SNOW-WATER RATIO
OF 13:1...GENERATED A 9 HR SNOW TOTAL OF 4-7 INCHES FOR THE MTN
ZONES 31...33 AND 34 ENDING AT 19Z TODAY. THIS BARELY MEETS THE
CRITERIA FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. BUT WITH SO MUCH SNOW
ALREADY ON THE ROADS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...THOUGHT WISE TO ADVISE
THAT MORE SNOW WAS ON THE WAY...ALBEIT NOT MUCH COMPARED TO WHAT
FELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. AGAIN...WIND NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
BIG PROBLEM WITH THIS LAST SHOT OF SNOW. BY AFTERNOON..BELIEVE
WE/LL SEE RATHER QUICK IMPROVEMENT WITH DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ON THE PLAINS...DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG...
SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL DENVER TO FORT
COLLINS. VISIBILITIES IN THIS AREA OF FOG VARYING FROM 1/4 TO
1/16 MILE WHICH IS NOW BEING REPORTED AT DIA. DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA MOMENTARILY AND WILL RUN UNTIL 16Z
THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...PASSING WAVE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS EXPECTED TO FILL SKIES OVER THE PLAINS WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
CAPABLE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER.
OTHERWISE IT/LL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY.
TONIGHT...DRY UP CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
WRAPPING UP IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE. HOWEVER...MODEL SFC AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE AN AREA OF SATURATED AIR
ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DENVER METRO
AREA FROM MID-EVENING ONWARD. THEREFORE WILL ADD FOG TO THIS THIS
AREA IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST.
LONG TERM...THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL STILL BE UNDER A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THEN A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL
BRUSH NORTHERN COLORADO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE
THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES BUT UNDER 50KT.
BIGGER CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR LATE
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AM OVER EAST SLOPES. NAM CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASING TO 60-80KT WED
EVENING WITH STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY DEVELOPING IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PERIOD. SHEAR PROFILE ALSO LOOKS GOOD FOR AMPLIFYING
MOUNTAIN WAVE. TOO EARLY FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH BUT CERTAINLY ONE
MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER SHIFTS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW BUT INITIAL LAPSE RATES WILL
INITIALLY BE ON THE LOW SIDE. MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...DOWNSLOPE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
LEAD TO DRY AND QUITE MILD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. OCCASIONAL WAVE CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK.
BY THIS WEEKEND...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SPREAD BUILD OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY DRY AND MILD OVER THE STATE. STILL COULD
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AVIATION...LIFR VSBYS IN FOG RANGING FROM 1/4 MILE AND BELOW AT
DENVER AREA TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 15Z...
SUSPECT WE/LL SEE RATHER QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS AS DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWN FROM THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SHOULD GO FROM
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AND REMAIN MVFR WITH
3000-5000 FOOT CLOUD BASES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
DENVER AREA SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z WITH
SHALLOW POCKETS OF FOG FORMING IN LOW LYING AREAS AFTER 06Z. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
400 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
...Updated for long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
Models were in good agreement with moving an upper level
disturbance from Nevada to the central Rockies by late this
afternoon. This upper level disturbance will then cross the
central high plains early tonight. As this upper level disturbance
approaches mid level frontogenesis will improve along the 700mb
baroclinic zone. This improving mid level forcing along with a
moist upslope flow in the lower levels will likely result snow
redeveloping by late day west of highway 83. The 700mb baroclinic
zone is initially forecast to remain nearly stationary early this
evening as the upper level disturbance approaches the area from the
west. Given that this forcing is expected to remain nearly
stationary for 3-5 hours as upper level dynamics improve early
this evening the potential exists for a band of snow accumulations
of 2 to 3 inches. At this time however the exact location of where
this band of heavier snowfall will set up is unclear with each
model offering slightly different solution. At this time based on
the latest trend of the HRRR and RAP have decided to lean towards
the slightly further south solution and therefore will issue a
winter weather advisory for locations along south southwest of a
Dodge City to Garden City line.
The snow will taper off from west to east after midnight as the
upper level disturbance crosses western Kansas. low level moisture
and weak southeast winds may give rise to lingering low clouds and
possible areas of fog. Given expected cloud cover overnight will
stay close to the previous forecast for all but the west central
Kansas where the potential for some clearing towards daybreak
appears more likely.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
The mid to high level flow will remain fairly zonal through the
extended period, with embedded shortwave troughs bringing periodic
weak cold fronts through western Kansas. The main problem with the
temperature forecast is the effect of snow cover. Melting will be
a slow process, especially since ground temperatures are below
freezing. A gradual warming trend can be expected through Saturday
as the snow melt continues, with highs possibly reaching into the
60s or even low 70s by Saturday, depending on snow cover by then.
After a brief cooldown Sunday and Monday in the wake of a shortwave
trough, the models indicate low amplitude but deep upper troughing
off of the west coast by Feb 18-19Th. This pattern would result in
broad west-southwest mid to high level flow across the high plains,
with lee troughing and very mild temperatures. Highs could reach
well into the 60s and 70s by February 19th.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014
Improving mid level forcing ahead of quick moving upper level
disturbance will produce favorable conditions for a period of
steady snow at GCK and DDC early tonight. Low MVFR or IFR ceilings
and/or visibilities will be possible with this steadier snowfall
between roughly 21z and 06z. Prior to snow developing VFR
conditions can be expected. East/southeast winds at 10kts or less
will gradually veer more south/southeast overnight as a surface
ridge axis moves southeast across Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 4 28 14 33 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 5 30 16 37 / 80 0 0 0
EHA 10 38 21 49 / 80 10 0 0
LBL 7 32 20 38 / 80 10 0 0
HYS 3 26 14 36 / 30 0 0 0
P28 7 24 14 37 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR
KSZ043-044-061>064-075>081-086>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1239 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
...Updated Synopsis and short term discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
At 12z Monday a 500mb -39c upper level trough was located near
the western Great Lakes with another upper level low located off
the west coast of British Columbia. In between these two systems a
weaker upper level disturbance was observed over Nevada and
southern Idaho. A +90kt 300mb jet streak extended east from the
base of the Nevada upper level disturbance into southeast
Colorado. Another 300mb jet steak appear to extend from southeast
Wyoming into northern Kansas. A 700mb temperature gradient was
located across western Kansas at 12z Monday with temperatures
ranging from +2c at Amarillo to -5c at Dodge City to -10c at North
Platte. An 850mb ridge axis was located over western Kansas this
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
Models were in good agreement with moving an upper level
disturbance from Nevada to the central Rockies by late this
afternoon. This upper level disturbance will then cross the
central high plains early tonight. As this upper level disturbance
approaches mid level frontogenesis will improve along the 700mb
baroclinic zone. This improving mid level forcing along with a
moist upslope flow in the lower levels will likely result snow
redeveloping by late day west of highway 83. The 700mb baroclinic
zone is initially forecast to remain nearly stationary early this
evening as the upper level disturbance approaches the area from the
west. Given that this forcing is expected to remain nearly
stationary for 3-5 hours as upper level dynamics improve early
this evening the potential exists for a band of snow accumulations
of 2 to 3 inches. At this time however the exact location of where
this band of heavier snowfall will set up is unclear with each
model offering slightly different solution. At this time based on
the latest trend of the HRRR and RAP have decided to lean towards
the slightly further south solution and therefore will issue a
winter weather advisory for locations along south southwest of a
Dodge City to Garden City line.
The snow will taper off from west to east after midnight as the
upper level disturbance crosses western Kansas. low level moisture
and weak southeast winds may give rise to lingering low clouds and
possible areas of fog. Given expected cloud cover overnight will
stay close to the previous forecast for all but the west central
Kansas where the potential for some clearing towards daybreak
appears more likely.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014
The extended forecast looks dry with an upper level ridge building
across the western US this week then shifting eastward to the Plains
this weekend. A series of upper level shortwave are progged to move
through the Northern Plains this week but look to only affect the
wind direction and a slight increase in clouds across western
Kansas. A downslope component of the wind is expected this week into
the weekend with winds meandering from the southwest to northwest as
the aforementioned upper level disturbances move through the
Northern Plains. A warming trend is expected during the extended
period with highs starting out Tuesday ranging from the upper 20s
across central Kansas to around 40 degrees across the KS/CO border
then warming into the upper 50s and lower 60s by this weekend. Lows
will start out Wednesday morning in the upper teens and lower 20s
increasing into the 30s by this weekend. One caveat with the
increased temperatures is how quickly the snowpack across the region
will melt. Any snowpack remaining by late this week could decrease
temperatures across that area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014
Improving mid level forcing ahead of quick moving upper level
disturbance will produce favorable conditions for a period of
steady snow at GCK and DDC early tonight. Low MVFR or IFR ceilings
and/or visibilities will be possible with this steadier snowfall
between roughly 21z and 06z. Prior to snow developing VFR
conditions can be expected. East/southeast winds at 10kts or less
will gradually veer more south/southeast overnight as a surface
ridge axis moves southeast across Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 4 28 20 35 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 5 30 21 36 / 80 0 0 0
EHA 10 38 26 49 / 80 10 0 0
LBL 7 32 22 38 / 80 10 0 0
HYS 3 26 20 36 / 30 0 0 0
P28 7 24 17 37 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ this afternoon
to 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-075>081-
086>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1251 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
JUST THE USUAL NUISANCE TYPE FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH LAKE INDUCED/DIURNALLY ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD EASTERN UPPER EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT HAS
BEEN THINNING WITH TIME WITH STRONGER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ONGOING. NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST...JUST SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL
IMPACT. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AROUND AND WEST OF OSCODA...AND ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. PLENTY OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS
WELL ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO (THE NORM FOR THIS WINTER). NOT MUCH
WIND SO WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GETTING OUT OF LINE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY...FORECAST UPDATES FOR CURRENT
TRENDS ONLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
THOUGH THE BAND IS BECOMING LESS VISIBLE...GRB RADAR INDICATES THE
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE LES BAND HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARD THE
COAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AT LEAST AT FKS IT AS AT THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY 1 1/4SM VSBY. THIS BAND WAS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NEARLY 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES...BACK WHEN IT EXITED
THE COAST NEAR MBL LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOSS OF THE BAND ON
GRB RADAR (AND IT/S LACK OF APPEARANCE ON APX) PERHAPS MEANS THIS
BAND IS WEAKENING...BUT THIS IS NOT A SAFE ASSUMPTION GIVEN THE
DISTANCE FROM THE TWO RADARS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WE ARE
GRADUALLY ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE REGIME FOR GOOD SNOW
RATIOS...AS 850MB ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LOWERING BELOW -20C.
STILL...WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SNEAKY/FLUFFY INCH OR 2 THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST FROM
THE DUNES SOUTHWARD.
HAVE AMPED UP SNOW WORDING ALONG THAT PART OF THE LAKE MI COAST.
OTHERWISE...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS...WITH SOME
PERIODIC BREAKS IN NE LOWER AND WESTERN MACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
GO FIGURE! NORTHERN LAKES ONCE AGAIN WELCOMING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WITH HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING
-20C H8 TEMPERATURE PUSHING INTO OUR AREA...AND EVEN COLDER READINGS
JUST UPSTREAM (MID -20S H8 OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR).
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT JUST AS COLD...ESPECIALLY UPWIND OF THE
BIG PONDS...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON THE BAD SIDE
OF ZERO ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ONTARIO. COLD AIR AND WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOING THEIR BEST TO DRUM UP SOME RESPECTABLE LAKE RESPONSE.
LAKE ICE SAYS OTHERWISE...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY...WITH EMPHASIS
PLACED ON LAKE SNOW...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
LAKE SNOWS SET TO CONTINUE TODAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES
ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN
BACKGROUND MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. FLOW ESSENTIALLY
REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS MENTIONED FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...LAKE
ICE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK BOTH SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER NOW RELEGATED TO AN
AREA WEST OF LEELANAU PENINSULA AND POINTS SOUTH (EVEN
HERE...EARLIER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF FLOATING ICE).
COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND H8 INVERSION LEVELS WILL FURTHER
NEGATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY. UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
NORTH...LAKE SUPERIOR ALL BUT FROZEN...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED OPEN
POCKETS OF WATER...SUGGESTING JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING SUN WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DAYTIME EXPANSION
TO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT NO BIG DEAL
FOR SURE. BIGGER STORY TODAY LIKELY TO BE THE TEMPERATURES...WITH
PERSISTENT CAA AND LIMITED LAKE MODIFICATION KEEPING MANY AREAS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. WINDS DON`T GET TOO OUT OF
HAND...BUT ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILL READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO (BUT SHORT OF ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA).
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS TAKING THEIR
COLLECTIVE TOLL ON LAKE PROCESSES HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY...AND ONE STRICTLY BASED OFF
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS GOING CALM/LIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH DECAYING LAKE PROCESSES AND LIGHT
WINDS...FEEL AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND INTERIOR UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS...ALLOWING READINGS TO TANK. WILL
CONTINUE TREND SET FORTH BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS...UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES. WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS
(-20?) EXPECTED WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOWS A TOUCH "WARMER"
ELSEWHERE...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
SOMEWHAT LENGTHY PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN IT/S WAKE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REBOUND...TUE AND TUE NIGHT STILL
LOOK QUITE COLD. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS ON A SLIGHT UPWARD
SWING...BUT ALONG WITH THAT COME SOME CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW.
PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TUESDAY...AT THE START OF THE DAY...WEAK (5-10KT) NW 1000-85MB FLOW
IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY EAST OF
LAKE HURON...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER MINUS TEENS. THOSE WINDS
WILL BACK SW OVER LAKE MI AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z...AND WILL BE
SSW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI BY 00Z. BY THEN...850MB TEMPS WILL
HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER MINUS TEENS. HOWEVER...VERY COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BELOW THAT...WITH 925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER
MINUS TEENS EVEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WON/T PLAY OUT HERE ON TERRA FIRMA. ONCE AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SHSN IN THE MORNING...BUT AS THE COLD AIR GETS SHALLOWER THAT
SHOULD SEGUE INTO JUST FLURRIES IN THE PM IN THE SW FLOW REGIME.
TUE NIGHT/WED...LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THRU THESE PERIODS...OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY WORKS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON. THE SW FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY...BUT A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS IOWA/WI/UPPER MI
TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF FADING OUT...THE PRE-FRONTAL
WILL TEND TO DO LIKEWISE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MI.
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR BELOW 800MB WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FOR TUE NIGHT...CHANCY POPS CAN
BE CONFINED TO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES VERY LATE. PRECIP SHOULD
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH AND MOMENTUM TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS IN
EASTERN UPPER WED MORNING (ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OR SO)...WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN MI...AND NO PRECIP
SE OF AN HTL-APN LINE.
PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR CLEARING AWAY FROM LAKE MI TUE NIGHT...BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE VERY LATE. SO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SUB-ZERO MINS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS
CLOSER TO LAKE MI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
20F...WITH A SOMEWHAT BRISK S TO SW WIND.
REST OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN 1000-850MB
WINDS AND TEMP ADVECTION WED NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT DIES
OVERHEAD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ON TIMING A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPPER MI.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL OF COURSE HINDERED BY A LACK OF OPEN WATER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN MAX TEMPS NEED TO A
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO. BACK INTO THE TEENS THRU THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014
VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE/
DIURNAL CLOUDS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS
AT TVC/MBL. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT OF APN THIS EVENING...
BUT PERSIST AT WESTERN TERMINALS MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
SNOW SHOWERS AT MBL.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1146 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER AND A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
JUST THE USUAL NUISANCE TYPE FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH LAKE INDUCED/DIURNALLY ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD EASTERN UPPER EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT HAS
BEEN THINNING WITH TIME WITH STRONGER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ONGOING. NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST...JUST SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH MINIMAL
IMPACT. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AROUND AND WEST OF OSCODA...AND ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. PLENTY OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS
WELL ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO (THE NORM FOR THIS WINTER). NOT MUCH
WIND SO WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GETTING OUT OF LINE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY...FORECAST UPDATES FOR CURRENT
TRENDS ONLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
THOUGH THE BAND IS BECOMING LESS VISIBLE...GRB RADAR INDICATES THE
LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE LES BAND HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARD THE
COAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AT LEAST AT FKS IT AS AT THE
COAST...AS EVIDENCED BY 1 1/4SM VSBY. THIS BAND WAS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NEARLY 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES...BACK WHEN IT EXITED
THE COAST NEAR MBL LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOSS OF THE BAND ON
GRB RADAR (AND IT/S LACK OF APPEARANCE ON APX) PERHAPS MEANS THIS
BAND IS WEAKENING...BUT THIS IS NOT A SAFE ASSUMPTION GIVEN THE
DISTANCE FROM THE TWO RADARS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WE ARE
GRADUALLY ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE REGIME FOR GOOD SNOW
RATIOS...AS 850MB ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LOWERING BELOW -20C.
STILL...WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SNEAKY/FLUFFY INCH OR 2 THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST FROM
THE DUNES SOUTHWARD.
HAVE AMPED UP SNOW WORDING ALONG THAT PART OF THE LAKE MI COAST.
OTHERWISE...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS...WITH SOME
PERIODIC BREAKS IN NE LOWER AND WESTERN MACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
GO FIGURE! NORTHERN LAKES ONCE AGAIN WELCOMING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WITH HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING
-20C H8 TEMPERATURE PUSHING INTO OUR AREA...AND EVEN COLDER READINGS
JUST UPSTREAM (MID -20S H8 OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR).
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT JUST AS COLD...ESPECIALLY UPWIND OF THE
BIG PONDS...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON THE BAD SIDE
OF ZERO ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ONTARIO. COLD AIR AND WEAK MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOING THEIR BEST TO DRUM UP SOME RESPECTABLE LAKE RESPONSE.
LAKE ICE SAYS OTHERWISE...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MANY...WITH EMPHASIS
PLACED ON LAKE SNOW...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
LAKE SNOWS SET TO CONTINUE TODAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES
ACROSS THE LAKES. WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN
BACKGROUND MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. FLOW ESSENTIALLY
REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS MENTIONED FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...LAKE
ICE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK BOTH SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER NOW RELEGATED TO AN
AREA WEST OF LEELANAU PENINSULA AND POINTS SOUTH (EVEN
HERE...EARLIER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF FLOATING ICE).
COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND H8 INVERSION LEVELS WILL FURTHER
NEGATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY. UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
NORTH...LAKE SUPERIOR ALL BUT FROZEN...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED OPEN
POCKETS OF WATER...SUGGESTING JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING SUN WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DAYTIME EXPANSION
TO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT NO BIG DEAL
FOR SURE. BIGGER STORY TODAY LIKELY TO BE THE TEMPERATURES...WITH
PERSISTENT CAA AND LIMITED LAKE MODIFICATION KEEPING MANY AREAS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. WINDS DON`T GET TOO OUT OF
HAND...BUT ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILL READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO (BUT SHORT OF ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA).
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS TAKING THEIR
COLLECTIVE TOLL ON LAKE PROCESSES HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY...AND ONE STRICTLY BASED OFF
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS GOING CALM/LIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH DECAYING LAKE PROCESSES AND LIGHT
WINDS...FEEL AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND INTERIOR UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS...ALLOWING READINGS TO TANK. WILL
CONTINUE TREND SET FORTH BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS...UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES. WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS
(-20?) EXPECTED WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOWS A TOUCH "WARMER"
ELSEWHERE...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A
SOMEWHAT LENGTHY PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN IT/S WAKE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REBOUND...TUE AND TUE NIGHT STILL
LOOK QUITE COLD. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS ON A SLIGHT UPWARD
SWING...BUT ALONG WITH THAT COME SOME CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW.
PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TUESDAY...AT THE START OF THE DAY...WEAK (5-10KT) NW 1000-85MB FLOW
IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY EAST OF
LAKE HURON...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER MINUS TEENS. THOSE WINDS
WILL BACK SW OVER LAKE MI AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z...AND WILL BE
SSW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI BY 00Z. BY THEN...850MB TEMPS WILL
HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER MINUS TEENS. HOWEVER...VERY COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BELOW THAT...WITH 925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER
MINUS TEENS EVEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WON/T PLAY OUT HERE ON TERRA FIRMA. ONCE AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NW FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SHSN IN THE MORNING...BUT AS THE COLD AIR GETS SHALLOWER THAT
SHOULD SEGUE INTO JUST FLURRIES IN THE PM IN THE SW FLOW REGIME.
TUE NIGHT/WED...LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THRU THESE PERIODS...OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY WORKS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON. THE SW FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY...BUT A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS IOWA/WI/UPPER MI
TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF FADING OUT...THE PRE-FRONTAL
WILL TEND TO DO LIKEWISE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MI.
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR BELOW 800MB WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FOR TUE NIGHT...CHANCY POPS CAN
BE CONFINED TO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES VERY LATE. PRECIP SHOULD
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH AND MOMENTUM TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS IN
EASTERN UPPER WED MORNING (ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH OR SO)...WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN MI...AND NO PRECIP
SE OF AN HTL-APN LINE.
PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR CLEARING AWAY FROM LAKE MI TUE NIGHT...BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE VERY LATE. SO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SUB-ZERO MINS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS
CLOSER TO LAKE MI. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
20F...WITH A SOMEWHAT BRISK S TO SW WIND.
REST OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN 1000-850MB
WINDS AND TEMP ADVECTION WED NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT DIES
OVERHEAD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF ON TIMING A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPPER MI.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL OF COURSE HINDERED BY A LACK OF OPEN WATER.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN MAX TEMPS NEED TO A
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO. BACK INTO THE TEENS THRU THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014
MOSTLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR AT MBL (AND PERIODS OF IFR THIS MORNING).
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION ON A LIGHTISH NW WIND. NOT
MUCH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE SHSN...BUT TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL WILL
REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME FLURRIES/SHSN. FOR MBL...AN EARLIER
DOMINANT BAND IS STARTING TO BACK UP TOWARD THE COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY INDUCE IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATOCU OUT THERE...MOSTLY VFR (WOULD NOT
RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES THOUGH).
LIGHT NW WIND BY MIDDAY TODAY...BECOMING NEARLY CALM AGAIN
TONIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JB
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1048 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
Another band of snow is moving across southwest Missouri this
morning. The band looks to be associated with a subtle shortwave
headed east-southeast through Kansas into western Missouri at this
time. RAP is showing some weak to moderate low level frontogenesis
over southwest Missouri and the left exit region of an upper level
jet streak is likely adding some divergence aloft to aid in lift.
These features all wash out by mid morning. Still think we could
see a dusting across our far southern counties before the band falls
apart. Elsewhere and otherwise...a 1035mb high is building across
the Midwest bringing another surge of Arctic air. Should see
decreasing clouds this afternoon...but with cold advection
continuing went near or just below coldest guidance numbers across
the area. Wind chill advisory still looks to be in good shape so
will let it continue as is. Will see a clear or mostly clear sky
tonight as the under the influence of the Arctic high. There may be
some mid/high clouds to contend with, but for the most part there
should be excellent radiational cooling conditions...especially over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois closest to the center
of the high where the wind will be light and variable or calm.
Generally undercut guidance by a few degrees everywhere, but went 5
to 6 degrees colder up north. If there`s any wind whatsoever we
might need another wind chill advisory tonight up north, but will
let the day shift make that determination.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
After the cold start Tuesday morning we`ll be hard pressed to
break out of the teens and lower 20s Tuesday afternoon. Another
trof of low pressure will dip into the Midwest Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. While the shortwave looks pretty stout,
it looks like moisture will be lacking, so have stuck with only
slight chance pops. Increasing clouds and southerly flow should
keep temperatures up a little in relation to Tuesday morning`s
lows. Still, stuck pretty close to the coldest guidance for
Wednesday morning lows.
Temperatures still look to moderate for the latter half of the week
with highs Wednesday near or even a bit above freezing, especially
across the eastern Ozarks down the I-44 corridor. Stout
south-southwest flow on Thursday south of a clipper which will move
across the Upper Midwest should push temperatures into the upper 30s
to mid 40s. The cold front associated with the clipper will sweep
through the area Thursday night, providing a brief cool down
primarily for the northern half of the CWFA on Friday. Southerly
flow is reestablished Saturday ahead of another clipper keeping
temps up mainly in the 40s. Some timing differences in the medium
range models on when the clipper will pass and how much cold
advection there will be behind it for Sunday. For now have stuck
pretty close to guidance which keeps temps in the 40s.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1034 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2014
Strong surface ridge extending from ern ND s-se into nrn MO will
shift e-sewd through the forecast period. The n-nwly surface wind
will veer around to a n-nely direction this evng and become light,
then to an e-nely direction Tuesday mrng albeit still weak. Just
some VFR, mid-high level cloudiness advecting sewd through the
region through the period.
Specifics for KSTL: N-nwly surface wind will veer around to a nly
direction this evng and become fairly light, then continue to veer
around to an ely direction Tuesday aftn albeit still quite weak.
Just VFR, mid-high level clouds through the period.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
RECORD MINS AND LOW MAXES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
STL COU UIN
RECORD MINS 2/10 -9/1982 -12/1899 -10/1982
2/11 -9/1899 -21/1899 -12/1981
LO MAXES 2/10 7/1889 4/1899 8/1936
2/11 5/1981 1/1899 1/1981
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 13 -1 19 10 / 10 0 0 0
Quincy 8 -11 13 5 / 5 0 0 0
Columbia 13 -2 19 11 / 10 5 0 0
Jefferson City 16 0 21 9 / 10 5 0 0
Salem 15 1 19 9 / 10 0 0 0
Farmington 18 1 22 8 / 10 5 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 PM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MAINLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AFTER TONIGHT...WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL
ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS...AT LEAST WEST OF THE STRATUS DECK IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST CONTINUE
TO ERODE...THOUGH THEY MAY NOT COMPLETELY GO AWAY...VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME HOLES WILL DEVELOP AND LOCALLY WARM
IT UP A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION HAS FORMED IN BOTH SE CO AND
NORTHERN AZ LATE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NM OVERNIGHT. EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO
POP UP IN NW NM. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN VORT MAX WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM...WHERE LESS MOISTURE RESIDES...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MAIN
SNOW BAND WILL STAY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER THIS
EVENING... THOUGH THE LOCAL WRF AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
EITHER SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT NE NM...OR THAT ANOTHER
WEAKER BAND WILL DEVELOP IN NE NM. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NE FOR THIS REASON. THIS BAND LIKELY WOULD NOT GET MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN A SPRINGER TO CLAYTON LINE...THOUGH COULD SEE LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. HI RES MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL...VERY LIGHT... BAND OF PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NEAR
CORONA EASTWARD TOWARD PORTALES. INTERESTINGLY THOUGH...THIS BAND IS
ABSENT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF...THOUGH SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS HAD BEEN
ADVERTISING IT. AT BEST...WOULD THINK ONLY A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW
COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NE EITHER. WILL CONTINUE THE SPS AND
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST. FREEZING FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT...THOUGH AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY AROUND KLVS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP SOME ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...THOUGH
GENERALLY WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY...ALL AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WARM TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT EARLY FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN THE EAST A FEW
DEGREES...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AND TUE MORN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NE HALF OF NM AND THE CURRENT COLDER THAN NORMAL
AIR OVER THE EAST LINGERING INTO TUE...IT LOOKS LIKE A LONG PERIOD
OF NO PRECIPITATION AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST A LITTLE BEYOND.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXISTS MAINLY FOR THU IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
NEAR TERM THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PULLED UP NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
NEAR RATON TO JUST WEST OF SANTA ROSA TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF DUNKEN
IN FAR SW CHAVES COUNTY. THE POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ERODED TO A PRETTY GOOD DEGREE BUT WILL LIKELY THICKEN AND MAY
SPREAD A BIT FARTHER WEST TONIGHT COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORN AS THE
COLD FRONT MAKES IT TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND PERHAPS BELOW LOWER
CANYONS INTO SOME PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH THAT WILL
BE A FAIRLY MODEST EAST WIND MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN 10 TO 20 MPH
AND EVEN THOSE WINDS WILL DIE OUT BETWEEN DAWN AND MID MORN TUE.
CHANCE OF THE FRONT MAKING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AND LARGE
IS UNDER 50 PERCENT. OF COURSE EAST OF THE FRONT RH RECOVERIES WILL
BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND ALMOST THAT GOOD FARTHER WEST
EXCEPT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM BERNALILLO COUNTY ON SOUTH.
RECOVERIES ONLY IN THE POOR TO ONLY LOCALLY GOOD RANGE MOST AREAS
FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS THEREAFTER. VENT RATES TO BE GENERALLY FAIR TO
GOOD TUE AND WED WITH A FEW VERY GOOD POCKETS IN CENTRAL AND NE
NM...THEN A MAJOR IMPROVEMENT THU WHERE MUCH OF AREA WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. UNFORTUNATELY IT DROPS BACK AGAIN FRI AND SAT BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO SOME DEGREE SUN...BUT NOT AS IMPRESSIVELY AS THU.
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING MIDWEEK SOME MIN RH VALUES OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
15 PERCENT POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON...WHEN A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AND ADJACENT TO DE BACA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WED THROUGH SUN...THERE
WILL BE SOME RISK OF PERIODIC SHORT TERM MARGINALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS IN EASTERN NM...FAVORING WED AND SUN AFTN.
43
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LARGE MASS OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS AT 18Z NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM RATON TO SANTA ROSA TO DUNKEN IN FAR SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY
WILL ERODE SOME TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTN WITH SOME HOLES
POSSIBLY BEING PUNCHED THROUGH THE CLOUD MASS EVEN FARTHER EAST.
CLOUD BASES WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR MOST AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER DOES
NOT COMPLETELY ERODE. ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL NM THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTN...GENERALLY IN VFR CATEGORY.
EXPECT SOME MT OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES ACROSS N THIRD TO PERHAPS
HALF OF THE STATE...MORE SO TONIGHT THAN THIS AFTN HOWEVER. BACK
DOOR FRONT TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY JUST WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE THIS AFTN SHOULD THEN DRIFT A LITTLE WAYS BACK WEST
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT WILL PUSH
INTO ALL OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT OR ONLY MAKE A FEW
TENTATIVE INROADS BELOW THE LOWER GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. AT
WORST EXPECTING ONLY A 3 TO 6 HOUR MODERATE E WIND POTENTIAL
AFFECTING ABQ. CIGS LIKELY TO LOWER AND EXPAND SOME AGAIN THIS
EVE ACROSS THE E AS CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE INCREASE. OVER CENTRAL AND WRN NM CHANCES FOR
SPOTTY AND MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS UPR TROF MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN WITH
ISOLD TO SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 10/23Z AND 11/08Z.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 27 52 23 55 / 10 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 16 48 14 49 / 30 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 22 48 18 51 / 20 10 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 19 55 14 58 / 10 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 19 50 16 54 / 20 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 18 54 17 58 / 10 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 23 51 24 56 / 30 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 31 65 23 67 / 10 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 12 41 12 44 / 50 10 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 47 26 50 / 30 10 0 0
PECOS........................... 24 47 25 50 / 20 10 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 13 41 13 43 / 60 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 18 38 13 41 / 70 10 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 15 42 10 45 / 60 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 20 48 18 48 / 40 5 0 0
MORA............................ 20 46 23 49 / 40 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 27 55 22 56 / 20 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 50 24 52 / 30 10 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 26 53 25 54 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 30 55 30 57 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 56 31 59 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 26 58 25 61 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 28 57 29 60 / 20 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 29 58 24 62 / 20 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 58 30 61 / 20 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 35 61 31 65 / 20 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 26 49 27 53 / 20 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 27 51 29 54 / 20 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 22 51 23 55 / 20 10 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 21 49 25 52 / 30 20 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 23 51 30 56 / 20 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 29 55 29 60 / 20 10 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 27 51 30 55 / 30 20 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 16 44 22 47 / 70 10 0 0
RATON........................... 18 50 19 53 / 70 10 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 18 49 20 54 / 50 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 18 48 23 55 / 30 10 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 14 43 25 52 / 60 10 0 0
ROY............................. 16 47 23 53 / 40 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 17 48 28 57 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 17 50 29 61 / 20 20 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 13 44 24 57 / 20 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 15 40 25 55 / 30 20 5 0
PORTALES........................ 14 41 25 57 / 30 20 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 18 44 28 58 / 30 20 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 23 45 26 63 / 20 30 5 0
PICACHO......................... 21 49 31 58 / 20 30 5 0
ELK............................. 24 49 32 57 / 20 30 5 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1156 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE STRATUS DECK IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY REACHED PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST HIGHS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN TRICKY ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH WARM AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ERODE THIS AFTN. THE HARD PART WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW FAR. STILL THINK AT LEAST THE EASTERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WILL STAY OVERCAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AND
PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
ALSO BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TODAY...AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
ACROSS THE NW. LOCAL WRF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW AND THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH EITHER.
NAM IS HANGING ON WITH AROUND 0.01 OF QPF...WHICH IS NOT
PROMISING EITHER. ALSO REMOVED THE FZDZ AND FZFG ACROSS THE EAST
THIS AFTN AS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST CIGS HAVE LIFTED A BIT. WX/QPF/SKY
HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR THESE TRENDS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1115 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LARGE MASS OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS AT 18Z NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM RATON TO SANTA ROSA TO DUNKEN IN FAR SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY
WILL ERODE SOME TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTN WITH SOME HOLES
POSSIBLY BEING PUNCHED THROUGH THE CLOUD MASS EVEN FARTHER EAST.
CLOUD BASES WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR MOST AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER DOES
NOT COMPLETELY ERODE. ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL NM THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTN...GENERALLY IN VFR CATEGORY.
EXPECT SOME MT OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES ACROSS N THIRD TO PERHAPS
HALF OF THE STATE...MORE SO TONIGHT THAN THIS AFTN HOWEVER. BACK
DOOR FRONT TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY JUST WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE THIS AFTN SHOULD THEN DRIFT A LITTLE WAYS BACK WEST
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT WILL PUSH
INTO ALL OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT OR ONLY MAKE A FEW
TENTATIVE INROADS BELOW THE LOWER GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. AT
WORST EXPECTING ONLY A 3 TO 6 HOUR MODERATE E WIND POTENTIAL
AFFECTING ABQ. CIGS LIKELY TO LOWER AND EXPAND SOME AGAIN THIS
EVE ACROSS THE E AS CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE INCREASE. OVER CENTRAL AND WRN NM CHANCES FOR
SPOTTY AND MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS UPR TROF MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN WITH
ISOLD TO SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 10/23Z AND 11/08Z.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO SOME AREAS OF THE STATE WHILE A
COLDER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WHILE THE WEST HOVERS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE EXITS NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY...A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH BOUTS OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EACH DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND BATCHES OF FREEZING FOG ARE ADVANCING WESTWARD TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN LOWEST AT CLAYTON AND RATON BETWEEN A HALF AND A
QUARTER OF A MILE. THIS WILL POSE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WITH SOME
DEPOSITION OF ICE ON SOME ROAD SURFACES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT FOG
IS NOT DENSE AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. WILL REISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO ERODE
AWAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING. HAVE
UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN
THE EASTERN ZONES...AND OUR WEST TX NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO BE DOING
THE SAME. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BENEATH THIS
STUBBORN STRATUS DECK...POSSIBLY OF A DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
VARIETY WHERE POCKETS OF ONLY SUPERCOOLED CLOUD WATER EXISTS. IN
THE WESTERN ZONES TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN INCREASING IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES.
TONIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL OVERTAKE NM...DRAGGING SOME FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTHEAST. QPF IS STILL UNIMPRESSIVE DUE
TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED JET OR
ISENTROPIC LIFTING AIDS. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME BANDED MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION...BUT CONTINUITY HAS BEEN
LACKING BETWEEN MEMBERS AND TEMPORAL RUNS. GFS HAS ADVERTISED ONE
IN NORTHEAST NM...GENERALLY FROM THE RATON RIDGE EASTWARD INTO
UNION COUNTY WHILE THE NAM HAS BOUGHT ON AN ISOLATED BAND OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LONE BAND
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS BY EARLY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST...BUT THE CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION IS ABSENT. OVERALL...SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.
TROUGH REMNANTS WILL EXIT THE STATE TUESDAY AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...BUT THOSE READINGS WILL STILL BE LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THE
MORE NOTABLE WARM UP WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA RISING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN A PATTERN DEFINED
BY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. SOME BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE PATTERN REMAINS
DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANY STORMS BEING DEFLECTED
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SEEPED FARTHER
WEST AND SOUTH ATTM WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH THE PECOS
VALLEY AT ROSWELL NORTH THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS AREA AND TO RATON.
MODELS DON/T INDICATE IT WILL MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS
WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IT COULD REACH CLINES
CORNERS BEFORE THE WESTERN EXTENT ERODES A LITTLE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. EXPECT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO PERSIST OVER
THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT THOUGH...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10
TO OVER 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST
WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN USUAL TODAY.
A DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE SHOWN ADVECTING INTO NV AND AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM THE WEST AND KABQ 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED AT .42 PW WHICH
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY IS AROUND 200 PCT OF NORMAL. WHETHER THIS
TRANSLATES INTO MEASURABLE PCPN...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE GREAT BASIN...APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO THE TX BORDER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHERE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME INSTAB
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL PREDICTED SO PERHAPS MORE
SHOWERY PCPN THERE. SOME OF THE MODELS STILL HINTING THERE WILL ALSO
BE A BAND OF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AS WELL TONIGHT. MODELS DON/T INDICATE AN EAST WIND
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE RGV SO COLDER AIR SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DON/T APPEAR TO BE FACTORS.
HIGHS REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE EAST TUESDAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE WEST AS
THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OUT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. PERSISTENT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE MAY RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES BECOME ONLY FAIR TO EVEN POOR OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER RGV
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TREND PERSISTS INTO THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE POOR RECOVERIES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME MIN RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 15 PERCENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
VENT RATES TODAY WILL BE POOR EAST AND MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
WEST. TUESDAYS RATES WILL REMAIN POOR OVER MOST OF THE EAST WITH
MOSTLY GOOD WEST AND CENTRAL. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY GOOD
RATES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST WITH POOR TO FAIR VALUES
AT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
&&
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1247 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES EARLY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES TUESDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
TRACKING THE LIGHT BAND OF SNOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES. WILL UP POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NE KY AND S WV AS OF 06Z. AREA OF MID LEVEL
LIFT MAXIMIZED OVER E KY AND THE S COAL FIELDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN A
BIT NEXT SEVERAL HRS BY LATEST RUC. HRRR AGREES...WEAKENING
OVERALL MESO BAND AND SHIFTING IT SE BY 10Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS
IN FROM NW. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS LAWRENCE
CO KY...WITH HALF AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE. THINK AROUND AN INCH
ON AVG ACROSS NE KY/S WV BEFORE EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN. MAY SEE
SOME LOLLIPOP 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS...IN
PARTICULAR S MINGO AND S LOGAN CO. HAVE AN SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS
AND SLICK TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BREAK OUT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY WITH
JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU. NE KY/S WV/SW VA IN CROSS-HAIRS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE W. EVEN HERE THOUGH...SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT WITH MANY PLACES UNDER A FAIR SKY.
FOR TEMPS...RAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LATEST LAMP/HRRR WHICH
RESULTED IN SHAVING OFF A TICK OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GENERALLY 20S OUTSIDE OF MTNS...WITH SOME TEENS AOA 3KFT. FOR
TONIGHT...QUITE COLD WITH SOME DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BLO
ZERO READINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH WITH PERRY CO PROBABLY
BEING THE COLD SPOT YET AGAIN. GENERALLY LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE
WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SUSPECT SOME N LOWLAND COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO AS
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD IS THEN
CONSIDERABLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET
WOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OVER THE REGION. GFS/SREF
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF HAS HAD
A HABIT OF ADVERTISING THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM NUMEROUS TIMES IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...BUT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER ALWAYS BACKS
OFF. GFS HAS HAD A MUCH BETTER TRACK RECORD WITH NOT SHOWING THE BIG
ONE. IN ADDITION...THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE WEST...AND HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST AS A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION. JUST BE AWARE...THAT THE EXTREMES ARE POSSIBLE...AS
IN MAJOR STORM...OR NO STORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EITHER UP...OR OFF...THE E COAST...ON THU.
THE SYSTEM DEPENDS UPON A NEGATIVE TILT S/W TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST CAN THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOW MUCH IT CLOSES OFF
/HOW INTENSE IT BECOMES/...AND THEREFORE...HOW MUCH THE STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS A WEAKER S/W TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN DIGGING FEATURE. THIS MAY SHUNT THE SYSTEM EWD LONGER
WED NT...SO THAT...EVEN IT IT DOES THEN TURN N THU MORNING...IT
WILL HAVE ALREADY OUT-FLANKED...OR MOVED AROUND...THE FCST AREA...BY
THEN.
THE GEM IS MOST INTENSE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWFHIRES IS
FARTHEST W...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAR W AS AT LEAST ITS LAST THREE
RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS E OF THE OHIO RIVER WED NT INTO THU TO REFLECT
THE COMPROMISE/WPC SOLN HERE...WITH ONLY A SCHC FARTHER W.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE OUT W...BUT THE PATTERN ALSO REMAINS NOT
VERY AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE THE FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE COLD
OUTBREAKS NOT THAT COLD. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS...THIS
LIKELY FAVORS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE WED NT-THU E COAST
SYSTEM. IT ALSO MEANS THAT SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT.
A COLD FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY A S/W TROUGH AS THE
L/W ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT THEN. THE FAST FLOW ALSO LENDS ITSELF
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT INCREASE WITH FCST PROJECTION TIME...SO
THAT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND NATURE OF ANY
SYSTEM TRAVERSING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STAYED CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL AND A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS IN SOME CASES.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECONDARY MESO BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRAVERS THE SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AREA...BUT WILL NOT AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SUCH AS
BKW. STRATUS CONTINUES TO LIFT AND DISSOLVE...AND SHOULD BE A NON
FACTOR BY 20Z. SKY WILL BE PRIMARILY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTH. MAY SEE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT IN MVFR MIST...AS SUPPORTED
BY LAMP GUIDANCE. HAVE A FEW HOURS OF IFR AT BKW.
ONE CONCERN IS THAT WE MAY HAVE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FOG
TONIGHT...ADDING IT TO TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE CATEGORIES TO
IFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TEMPOS FOR IFR MIST/FOG TONIGHT. MAY
NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE PREVAILING FOG CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE
PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
413 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
NUISANCE MINOR SNOW TONIGHT WITH UPPER SYSTEM.
AMPLE MODEL TO MODEL & WITHIN MODEL DIFFERENCES.
12Z WRF WAS INITALLY DRY EXCEPT OSAGE COUNTY...
18Z WRF NOW PAINTS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
TULSA METRO INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GFS SNOW
LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING AND ECMWF AS DRY AS
12Z WRF. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AND REGIONAL RADAR
SUGGEST A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF SNOW. EARLIER
ADVISORY EXPANDED A TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH TO
INCLUDE TULSA METRO AREA. DOUBT AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL ONE INCH
SNOW OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION BUT WILL LEAVE
CURRENT ADVISORY ALONE... EXCEPT TO ADD CHOCTAW
COUNTY TO AVOID A DONUT HOLE. EVENING SHIFT CAN
WRESTLE WITH ANY HEADLINES WHEN PRECIP ACTUALLY
STARTS IN CWA.
BIG NEWS IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BEGINS AT
MID WEEK..THE END OF WINTER HERE? AS MEAN RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE ROCKIES. NEXT WEEKEND DRY / ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 14 29 17 41 / 50 10 0 0
FSM 24 33 20 42 / 50 20 10 0
MLC 21 30 17 44 / 40 20 10 0
BVO 12 26 12 39 / 50 10 0 0
FYV 14 31 12 38 / 40 10 0 10
BYV 12 29 14 38 / 40 10 0 10
MKO 18 28 18 41 / 60 10 10 0
MIO 10 27 16 38 / 40 0 0 10
F10 17 27 17 43 / 60 10 10 0
HHW 25 34 23 46 / 40 40 20 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR
OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
OKZ076.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR
ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
116 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
THE PLUME OF SNOW HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER NORTHERN SWISHER
AND CASTRO COUNTIES. PERHAPS STILL LINGERING FLURRIES...BUT EVENT
APPEARS TO BE OVER. WE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A
LITTLE EARLY AS A RESULT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014/
UPDATE...
A BAND OF SNOW EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE NEAR A POWER
PLANT NEAR BORGER HAS SPREAD OVER AMARILLO AND THICKENED AS IT
MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN SWISHER AND NORTHEASTERN CASTRO
COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAD SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS HAPPY BY
1015 THIS MORNING. RADAR ALSO INDICATED VERY LIGHT SNOW HAD SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN SWISHER...NORTHWESTERN HALE...AND EASTERN LAMB
COUNTIES THOUGH QUESTIONABLE IF THIS WAS RELATED TO THE PLUME FROM
THE PANHANDLE. ANYWAY...WE HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH 21Z FOR CASTRO AND SWISHER COUNTIES AND WILL REASSESS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL PLUME SHOULD STEER SLIGHTLY
MORE TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...IF IT
REMAINS THAT LONG. RMCQUEEN
AVIATION...
A COLD AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
LATEST LOOKS AT SATELLITE AND THE SHORT-TERM RAP MODEL CAST DOUBTS
ABOUT THE ABILITY FOR THIS LAYER TO BREAK COMPLETELY THOUGH SHOULD
AT LEAST THIN BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z. THEN...THIS LAYER ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LIFT SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AND
MAY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOOKS
TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING SNOW AS DOMINANT WEATHER....THOUGH MAY
VALIDATE SNOW SHOWER MENTION AT BOTH TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO REMAIN INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR BOTH SITES...PERHAPS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014/
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS ARE ON TRACK TO IMPROVE BY MID-DAY AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES ON NELY WINDS...BEFORE RESUMING IFR AND MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
LBB SHOULD SEE -FZDZ AND FLURRIES END THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY IFR
CIGS RISING TO MVFR. SOME TEMPO VFR BREAKS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTN...BUT WE/LL KEEP MVFR THE PREDOMINANT MODE AS ANY VFR BREAKS
SHOULD QUICKLY END TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ANYWHERE FROM LBB TO
CDS...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS THIS COVERAGE
MAY PROVE TOO SPARSE AND COMPLETELY MISS THE TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...
COLD AND DREARY MONDAY WILL THANKFULLY BE THE LOW-LIGHT OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A MILDER PATTERN IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER. UNTIL THEN...
MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE WINDS COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT STRATUS
WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO LEAVE THE REGION TODAY AS A STUBBORN AXIS
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS NOTED UPSTREAM OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
HELP LIFT LOW CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING AND ULTIMATELY RID THE
REGION OF ITS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO FAR...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
OF -FZDZ HAVE YIELDED A THIN GLAZE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. AREA ROADS
ARE FARING VERY WELL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WINTER WX ADVISORY
ATTM FOR ANY WIDESPREAD TRAVEL ISSUES.
HOWEVER BY LATE TONIGHT...A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY HAVE A BIT MORE
MERIT AS A MODEST UPPER TROUGH /PRESENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT
BASIN/ SHARPENS A TOUCH BEFORE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS BY TUE
MORNING. CONSIDERING WE WILL RETAIN STRATUS OVERNIGHT...A MODEST
INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD
EASILY GARNER A FEW SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES. THE GREATEST CAVEAT
WE SEE INVOLVES THE EXTENT OF THIS DEEPER MOISTENING AND LIFT AS
THIS PARTICULAR OPEN WAVE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SOME SERIOUS
MOISTURE DEFICITS ALOFT BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED. THIS SERIOUSLY
LIMITS THE WINDOW FOR BOTH THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP...
SO THIS IS WHY WE ARE RELUCTANT TO RAISE POPS ABOVE THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW. POPS BEFORE 06Z WERE SCALED BACK MARKEDLY AS
LIFT AND MOISTENING WILL MERELY BE IN THEIR INFANCY BEFORE THE
TROUGH ARRIVES CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. REGARDING PRECIP PHASE...A WARM
NOSE IS STILL EVIDENT ON MOST SOUNDINGS DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIP...SO WE HAVE KEPT A PELLET AND LIGHT SNOW MIX INTACT
ACROSS OUR SRN AND ERN ZONES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY 12Z TUE
APPEAR QUITE LIGHT - GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONSIDERING TEMPS ARE FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN THE PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THE EXTENT OF STRATUS TODAY...MAX TEMPS WERE PULLED
BACK TO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES.
LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE NM STATE LINE APPEAR MORE PRONE TO EROSION JUST
AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE
TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
LONG TERM...
AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING RIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN UNUSUALLY
CONSISTENT IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BAND. AS NOTED
ABOVE...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE QUITE A DEPTH OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE SHOULD BECOME SATURATED BY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND. ALSO TAKING PLACE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING OF A WARM
NOSE UP AROUND 5-7KFT SO THAT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPROCK
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. WARM NOSE TAKES A WHILE LONGER
TO ERODE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO ALL BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...ALL OF
THE SNOW AMOUNT SREF MEMBERS /AS SHOWN ON THE SPC PLUMES FOR KLBB/
SHOW AMOUNTS UNDER ONE INCH...AND EVEN THE MOST OPTIMISTIC OF
MODELS KEEP LIQUID AMOUNTS AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH SO WE
SHOULD SEE ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING BUT AS THE TROF AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
MAY HELP TO BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TIMING OF THE TROF IS A BIT FASTER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SO WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH TO GET HIGHS OUT
OF THE 30S FOR PART OF THE AREA.
ONCE WE GET PAST TUESDAY...WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE WARM-UP DOWN A BIT. MODELS WERE TAKING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE COOLED BACK DOWN
IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS. TEMPS WARM UP A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT STALLS THE WARM UP ON FRIDAY.
END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS A LITTLE BIT MORE INTERESTING AS FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF TRIES TO WORK NORTHWARD. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TRIES TO
BACK DOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY IN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW ALLOW MOISTURE LEVELS TO
INCREASE SOME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS A LEE SURFACE TROF
DEVELOPS INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SOME. JUST PAST THE END OF
THE FORECAST...A QUICK MOVING TROF ON MONDAY MAY DRIVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE. WAAAAAAY TO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS COULD GIVE US
SOME PRECIP BUT WE WILL KEEP THE FINGERS CROSSED AND HOPE THE
FORECAST PANS OUT.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 18 37 24 57 33 / 40 20 0 0 0
TULIA 18 35 22 54 32 / 40 30 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 18 36 22 54 32 / 40 30 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 20 37 25 57 33 / 40 30 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 20 36 24 56 32 / 40 30 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 23 38 27 60 35 / 30 20 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 22 37 25 58 34 / 30 20 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 20 31 20 51 30 / 30 40 0 0 0
SPUR 22 32 22 54 32 / 30 40 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 23 32 22 53 32 / 30 40 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1102 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014
.UPDATE...
A BAND OF SNOW EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE NEAR A POWER
PLANT NEAR BORGER HAS SPREAD OVER AMARILLO AND THICKENED AS IT
MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN SWISHER AND NORTHEASTERN CASTRO
COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAD SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS HAPPY BY
1015 THIS MORNING. RADAR ALSO INDICATED VERY LIGHT SNOW HAD SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN SWISHER...NORTHWESTERN HALE...AND EASTERN LAMB
COUNTIES THOUGH QUESTIONABLE IF THIS WAS RELATED TO THE PLUME FROM
THE PANHANDLE. ANYWAY...WE HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH 21Z FOR CASTRO AND SWISHER COUNTIES AND WILL REASSESS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL PLUME SHOULD STEER SLIGHTLY
MORE TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...IF IT
REMAINS THAT LONG. RMCQUEEN
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
LATEST LOOKS AT SATELLITE AND THE SHORT-TERM RAP MODEL CAST DOUBTS
ABOUT THE ABILITY FOR THIS LAYER TO BREAK COMPLETELY THOUGH SHOULD
AT LEAST THIN BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z. THEN...THIS LAYER ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LIFT SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AND
MAY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOOKS
TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING SNOW AS DOMINANT WEATHER....THOUGH MAY
VALIDATE SNOW SHOWER MENTION AT BOTH TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO REMAIN INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR BOTH SITES...PERHAPS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014/
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS ARE ON TRACK TO IMPROVE BY MID-DAY AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES ON NELY WINDS...BEFORE RESUMING IFR AND MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
LBB SHOULD SEE -FZDZ AND FLURRIES END THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY IFR
CIGS RISING TO MVFR. SOME TEMPO VFR BREAKS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTN...BUT WE/LL KEEP MVFR THE PREDOMINANT MODE AS ANY VFR BREAKS
SHOULD QUICKLY END TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ANYWHERE FROM LBB TO
CDS...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS THIS COVERAGE
MAY PROVE TOO SPARSE AND COMPLETELY MISS THE TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...
COLD AND DREARY MONDAY WILL THANKFULLY BE THE LOW-LIGHT OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A MILDER PATTERN IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER. UNTIL THEN...
MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE WINDS COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT STRATUS
WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO LEAVE THE REGION TODAY AS A STUBBORN AXIS
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS NOTED UPSTREAM OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
HELP LIFT LOW CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING AND ULTIMATELY RID THE
REGION OF ITS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO FAR...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
OF -FZDZ HAVE YIELDED A THIN GLAZE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. AREA ROADS
ARE FARING VERY WELL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WINTER WX ADVISORY
ATTM FOR ANY WIDESPREAD TRAVEL ISSUES.
HOWEVER BY LATE TONIGHT...A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY HAVE A BIT MORE
MERIT AS A MODEST UPPER TROUGH /PRESENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT
BASIN/ SHARPENS A TOUCH BEFORE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS BY TUE
MORNING. CONSIDERING WE WILL RETAIN STRATUS OVERNIGHT...A MODEST
INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD
EASILY GARNER A FEW SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES. THE GREATEST CAVEAT
WE SEE INVOLVES THE EXTENT OF THIS DEEPER MOISTENING AND LIFT AS
THIS PARTICULAR OPEN WAVE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SOME SERIOUS
MOISTURE DEFICITS ALOFT BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED. THIS SERIOUSLY
LIMITS THE WINDOW FOR BOTH THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP...
SO THIS IS WHY WE ARE RELUCTANT TO RAISE POPS ABOVE THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW. POPS BEFORE 06Z WERE SCALED BACK MARKEDLY AS
LIFT AND MOISTENING WILL MERELY BE IN THEIR INFANCY BEFORE THE
TROUGH ARRIVES CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. REGARDING PRECIP PHASE...A WARM
NOSE IS STILL EVIDENT ON MOST SOUNDINGS DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIP...SO WE HAVE KEPT A PELLET AND LIGHT SNOW MIX INTACT
ACROSS OUR SRN AND ERN ZONES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY 12Z TUE
APPEAR QUITE LIGHT - GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONSIDERING TEMPS ARE FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN THE PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THE EXTENT OF STRATUS TODAY...MAX TEMPS WERE PULLED
BACK TO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES.
LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE NM STATE LINE APPEAR MORE PRONE TO EROSION JUST
AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE
TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
LONG TERM...
AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING RIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN UNUSUALLY
CONSISTENT IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BAND. AS NOTED
ABOVE...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE QUITE A DEPTH OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE SHOULD BECOME SATURATED BY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND. ALSO TAKING PLACE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING OF A WARM
NOSE UP AROUND 5-7KFT SO THAT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPROCK
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. WARM NOSE TAKES A WHILE LONGER
TO ERODE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO ALL BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...ALL OF
THE SNOW AMOUNT SREF MEMBERS /AS SHOWN ON THE SPC PLUMES FOR KLBB/
SHOW AMOUNTS UNDER ONE INCH...AND EVEN THE MOST OPTIMISTIC OF
MODELS KEEP LIQUID AMOUNTS AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH SO WE
SHOULD SEE ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING BUT AS THE TROF AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
MAY HELP TO BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TIMING OF THE TROF IS A BIT FASTER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SO WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH TO GET HIGHS OUT
OF THE 30S FOR PART OF THE AREA.
ONCE WE GET PAST TUESDAY...WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SLOW THE WARM-UP DOWN A BIT. MODELS WERE TAKING HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE COOLED BACK DOWN
IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS. TEMPS WARM UP A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT STALLS THE WARM UP ON FRIDAY.
END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS A LITTLE BIT MORE INTERESTING AS FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF TRIES TO WORK NORTHWARD. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TRIES TO
BACK DOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY IN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW ALLOW MOISTURE LEVELS TO
INCREASE SOME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS A LEE SURFACE TROF
DEVELOPS INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SOME. JUST PAST THE END OF
THE FORECAST...A QUICK MOVING TROF ON MONDAY MAY DRIVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE. WAAAAAAY TO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS COULD GIVE US
SOME PRECIP BUT WE WILL KEEP THE FINGERS CROSSED AND HOPE THE
FORECAST PANS OUT.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 32 18 37 24 57 / 10 40 20 0 0
TULIA 25 18 35 22 54 / 40 40 30 0 0
PLAINVIEW 26 18 36 22 54 / 10 40 30 0 0
LEVELLAND 30 20 37 25 57 / 10 40 30 0 0
LUBBOCK 28 20 36 24 56 / 10 40 30 0 0
DENVER CITY 33 23 38 27 60 / 10 30 20 0 0
BROWNFIELD 30 22 37 25 58 / 10 30 20 0 0
CHILDRESS 27 20 31 20 51 / 10 30 40 0 0
SPUR 27 22 32 22 54 / 10 30 40 0 0
ASPERMONT 27 23 32 22 53 / 10 30 40 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022-023.
&&
$$
05/99/05