Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE ABNORMALLY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SHARP
HEIGHT RISES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE
BUILDING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED IN TX IS ALSO LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BACK-BUILDING CU FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL MOTION IS GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES NO POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0
PERCENT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FLAT RIDGING AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BETWEEN 576DM AND 582DM WITH H8 TEMPERATURES REACHING
TOWARDS A +12C TO +15C RANGE. THIS COMBINATION NEARLY MIRRORS
CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE/END OF JANUARY...AND
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE
AMPLIFYING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE DEFINED IN THE WAVE
STRUCTURE. REGARDLESS...IMPACTS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA IN THE FORM OF SCT SHOWERS...WITH ONLY AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDING THE SETUP FOR SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS
(THOUGH NOTHING UNSEASONABLY STRONG).
THEREAFTER...CONTINUED RIDGING AND BROAD WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS UNUSUALLY LOW
CONSIDERING THE WINTER SEASON WITH H5 HEIGHTS NOT FAR FROM 580DM
THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. H8 TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH
ABOVE THE +15C MARK...WITH AFTERNOON 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
ECLIPSING 139DM. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH OR EXCEED 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...WITH
MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS EXCEEDING THE 80F THRESHOLD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...MID TO HIGH
LEVEL SCT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-CLR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CIGS TO
RETURN ON SAT AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE
MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA BEGINS TO PUSH ANOTHER BATCH OF MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO
KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS IN DIRECTION AND SPEEDS.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY CLOUDS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL ONLY BE FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND HAVE
BASES AOA 10K FEET. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CIGS TO RETURN ON SAT AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL
CA BEGINS TO PUSH ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CIGS TO RETURN ON SAT AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA BEGINS TO
PUSH ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNTIL DRIER AIR FOLLOWS AFTER A
WEAK TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME
BREEZY WINDS...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE CO RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE INTO THE TEENS AFTER MONDAY WHILE
TEMPERATURES RISE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE ABNORMALLY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SHARP
HEIGHT RISES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE
BUILDING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED IN TX IS ALSO LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BACK-BUILDING CU FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL MOTION IS GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES NO POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0
PERCENT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FLAT RIDGING AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BETWEEN 576DM AND 582DM WITH H8 TEMPERATURES REACHING
TOWARDS A +12C TO +15C RANGE. THIS COMBINATION NEARLY MIRRORS
CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE/END OF JANUARY...AND
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE
AMPLIFYING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE DEFINED IN THE WAVE
STRUCTURE. REGARDLESS...IMPACTS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA IN THE FORM OF SCT SHOWERS...WITH ONLY AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDING THE SETUP FOR SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS
(THOUGH NOTHING UNSEASONABLY STRONG).
THEREAFTER...CONTINUED RIDGING AND BROAD WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS UNUSUALLY LOW
CONSIDERING THE WINTER SEASON WITH H5 HEIGHTS NOT FAR FROM 580DM
THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. H8 TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH
ABOVE THE +15C MARK...WITH AFTERNOON 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
ECLIPSING 139DM. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH OR EXCEED 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...WITH
MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS EXCEEDING THE 80F THRESHOLD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LINGERING CIGS BETWEEN 6-8K FEET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNTIL DRIER AIR FOLLOWS AFTER A
WEAK TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME
BREEZY WINDS...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE CO RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE INTO THE TEENS AFTER MONDAY WHILE
TEMPERATURES RISE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1124 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO START SNOW IN SW CO NOW GIVEN 06Z METAR
REPORTS OF SNOW AT CORTEZ AND PAGOSA AND LOWERING CLOUDS AT
DURANGO AND NUCLA. ANTICIPATING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM CORTEZ TO
PAGOSA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
CROSSES AZ.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 831 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH SNOW
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. HAVE UPDATED ALL
ZONES TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...IN MOST
CASES INCREASING VALUES. LATEST HI-RES AND RAP MODELS ALL SUGGEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS BECOMING A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS WE MOVE INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL UTAH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
REALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRIDAY MORNING.
NEW ADVISORIES OUT FOR THE SAN JUANS AND ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
FROM GLENWOOD SPRINGS EAST STARTING TONIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DOWNGRADED WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES FOR THE GRAND MESA AND
NIXED THE WARNING FOR THE ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. VERY LITTLE
FORCING IS INVOLVED WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH HAS MADE THE FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT. WITH
WARM AIR OVERRUNNING COLD AIR POOL AT THE SFC ON FRIDAY...THE
CHANCE REMAINS FOR LIGHT SNOW AROUND MUCH OF THE REGION. KEPT LOW POPS
IN THE GRAND VALLEY AS THE WESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORABLE WITH
OVERRUNNING INVOLVED BUT WITHOUT ANY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AM
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT ON THE SCENARIO PANNING OUT DUE TO THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE PATTERN AND MODELS GREATLY
UNDER PERFORMING FOR TODAYS FORECAST. PWATS ARE INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FRIDAY (0.2 TO 0.3)...WHICH IS WHY
SNOW AMTS IN THE FORECAST HAVE DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
700 MB FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...WHICH WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
IN THE BIG PICTURE...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STREAM REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. MOISTURE WILL FLUCTUATE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AT TIMES AS THE POSITION OF THE JET SHIFTS FROM OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES PASS. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
GENERAL SOLUTION...BUT THE DETAILS HAVE BEEN FAR MORE PROBLEMATIC.
ON SAT A 120+KT UPPER JET CORE WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A DEEPER SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN INCREASED OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER
OTHER LIFTING MECHANISMS REMAIN WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
HINTED AT EARLY SAT...BUT THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AND UNIMPRESSIVE.
THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY...SO
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
THAT SAID...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHICS WILL
BECOME EXCELLENT. THEREFORE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY...AIDED BY SOME DIURNAL HEATING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT. ALSO
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FINALLY DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTERNOON AS
HEIGHTS LOWER. WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY SUNDAY AS THE JET
DROPS SOUTHWARD. BUT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DUE TO COOLING ALOFT...GOOD MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL
CONTINUE. BUT BEFORE ANY COOLING DEVELOPS SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS...EVEN IN THE FAR NORTH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PASS LATE MON/MON NIGHT...KEEPING SNOW LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS.
MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
DUE TO THE MOIST UNSETTLED FLOW. THE WARM AND UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE COLD VALLEYS TO APPROACH MORE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
EACH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL SNOW AND FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. KGJT/KMTJ/KDRO/KCNY SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
AFTER 19Z FRI. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KGJT/KCNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SATURDAY COZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SATURDAY COZ004-010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT
COZ018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MST SATURDAY
COZ008.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH SNOW
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. HAVE UPDATED ALL
ZONES TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...IN MOST
CASES INCREASING VALUES. LATEST HI-RES AND RAP MODELS ALL SUGGEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS BECOMING A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS WE MOVE INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL UTAH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
REALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRIDAY MORNING.
NEW ADVISORIES OUT FOR THE SAN JUANS AND ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
FROM GLENWOOD SPRINGS EAST STARTING TONIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DOWNGRADED WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES FOR THE GRAND MESA AND
NIXED THE WARNING FOR THE ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. VERY LITTLE
FORCING IS INVOLVED WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH HAS MADE THE FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT. WITH
WARM AIR OVERRUNNING COLD AIR POOL AT THE SFC ON FRIDAY...THE
CHANCE REMAINS FOR LIGHT SNOW AROUND MUCH OF THE REGION. KEPT LOW POPS
IN THE GRAND VALLEY AS THE WESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORABLE WITH
OVERRUNNING INVOLVED BUT WITHOUT ANY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AM
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT ON THE SCENARIO PANNING OUT DUE TO THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE PATTERN AND MODELS GREATLY
UNDER PERFORMING FOR TODAYS FORECAST. PWATS ARE INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FRIDAY (0.2 TO 0.3)...WHICH IS WHY
SNOW AMTS IN THE FORECAST HAVE DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
700 MB FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...WHICH WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
IN THE BIG PICTURE...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STREAM REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. MOISTURE WILL FLUCTUATE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AT TIMES AS THE POSITION OF THE JET SHIFTS FROM OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES PASS. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
GENERAL SOLUTION...BUT THE DETAILS HAVE BEEN FAR MORE PROBLEMATIC.
ON SAT A 120+KT UPPER JET CORE WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A DEEPER SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN INCREASED OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER
OTHER LIFTING MECHANISMS REMAIN WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
HINTED AT EARLY SAT...BUT THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AND UNIMPRESSIVE.
THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY...SO
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
THAT SAID...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHICS WILL
BECOME EXCELLENT. THEREFORE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY...AIDED BY SOME DIURNAL HEATING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT. ALSO
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FINALLY DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTERNOON AS
HEIGHTS LOWER. WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY SUNDAY AS THE JET
DROPS SOUTHWARD. BUT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DUE TO COOLING ALOFT...GOOD MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL
CONTINUE. BUT BEFORE ANY COOLING DEVELOPS SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS...EVEN IN THE FAR NORTH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PASS LATE MON/MON NIGHT...KEEPING SNOW LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS.
MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
DUE TO THE MOIST UNSETTLED FLOW. THE WARM AND UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE COLD VALLEYS TO APPROACH MORE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
EACH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL SNOW AND FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. KGJT/KMTJ/KDRO/KCNY SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
AFTER 19Z FRI. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KGJT/KCNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SATURDAY COZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SATURDAY COZ004-010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT
COZ018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MST SATURDAY
COZ008.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
106 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL
BE COLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON EST...AMPLE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. KTYX RADAR REFLECTIVITIES
ARE VERY LIGHT AND HAVE REDUCED THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE...CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER OVER LAKE ONTARIO WHICH TOO
WILL HAVE LIMITS ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN
THE H2O VAPOR LOOP WAS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIMITED
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE NEW
ESTF SKY GRID FORECAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS LOOK GREAT WITH MINOR
HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.
PREV DISC...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND IS DOING LITTLE
SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF CLOUDS AND
SOME FLURRIES AS IT PASSES.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. DESPITE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND THE LACK
OF A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...THE LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND...AND AN
INLAND EXTENT REACHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE BAND IS KEEPING THE HEAVIEST ECHOES TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS BAND WILL
SLOWLY START TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS MOSTLY UNINHABITED
FOREST PRESERVE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DISRUPT THE FLOW ENOUGH BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THIS BAND.
BEFORE THAT OCCURS...AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS MOVEMENT AND
WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE 09Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST PRODUCT...AS WELL AS THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF.
BY THE AFTN...WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST SNOW BY THAT POINT LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
SOME SHELTERED AREAS THAT HAD NO WIND AND HAD MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GOT
VERY COLD THIS MORNING...SUCH AS IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE
IT DROPPED AS LOW AS -13 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WERE NEAR
ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...TEMPS WILL
STEADILY WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS
AREA...AND SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT.
THURSDAY AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE
SURFACE. ALOFT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS. HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
SOUTH TO WEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KPSF WITH SOME GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH
WESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE
DRY OR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL. ITS TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL
BE COLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON EST...AMPLE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. KTYX RADAR REFLECTIVITIES
ARE VERY LIGHT AND HAVE REDUCED THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE...CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER OVER LAKE ONTARIO WHICH TOO
WILL HAVE LIMITS ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN
THE H2O VAPOR LOOP WAS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIMITED
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE NEW
ESTF SKY GRID FORECAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS LOOK GREAT WITH MINOR
HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.
PREV DISC...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND IS DOING LITTLE
SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF CLOUDS AND
SOME FLURRIES AS IT PASSES.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. DESPITE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND THE LACK
OF A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...THE LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND...AND AN
INLAND EXTENT REACHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE BAND IS KEEPING THE HEAVIEST ECHOES TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS BAND WILL
SLOWLY START TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS MOSTLY UNINHABITED
FOREST PRESERVE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DISRUPT THE FLOW ENOUGH BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THIS BAND.
BEFORE THAT OCCURS...AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS MOVEMENT AND
WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE 09Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST PRODUCT...AS WELL AS THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF.
BY THE AFTN...WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST SNOW BY THAT POINT LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
SOME SHELTERED AREAS THAT HAD NO WIND AND HAD MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GOT
VERY COLD THIS MORNING...SUCH AS IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE
IT DROPPED AS LOW AS -13 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WERE NEAR
ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...TEMPS WILL
STEADILY WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS
AREA...AND SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN STRATOCU AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE MOISTURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ONLY SOME FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AROUND 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. MOST SITES LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE
DRY OR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL. ITS TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
827 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL
BE COLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND IS DOING LITTLE
SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF CLOUDS AND
SOME FLURRIES AS IT PASSES.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. DESPITE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND THE LACK
OF A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...THE LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND...AND AN
INLAND EXTENT REACHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE BAND IS KEEPING THE HEAVIEST ECHOES TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS BAND WILL
SLOWLY START TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS MOSTLY UNINHABITED
FOREST PRESERVE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DISRUPT THE FLOW ENOUGH BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THIS BAND.
BEFORE THAT OCCURS...AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS MOVEMENT AND
WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE 09Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST PRODUCT...AS WELL AS THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF.
BY THE AFTN...WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST SNOW BY THAT POINT LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
SOME SHELTERED AREAS THAT HAD NO WIND AND HAD MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GOT
VERY COLD THIS MORNING...SUCH AS IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE
IT DROPPED AS LOW AS -13 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WERE NEAR
ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...TEMPS WILL
STEADILY WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS
AREA...AND SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN STRATOCU AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE MOISTURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ONLY SOME FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AROUND 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. MOST SITES LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE
DRY OR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL. ITS TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
627 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY COLD WEATHER...WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 626 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY. THIS NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND
IS DOING LITTLE SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLEAR FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. DESPITE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND THE LACK
OF A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...THE LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND...AND AN
INLAND EXTENT REACHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE BAND IS KEEPING THE HEAVIEST ECHOES TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS BAND WILL
SLOWLY START TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS MOSTLY UNINHABITED
FOREST PRESERVE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DISRUPT THE FLOW ENOUGH BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THIS BAND.
BEFORE THAT OCCURS...AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS MOVEMENT AND
WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE 09Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST PRODUCT...AS WELL AS THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF.
BY THE AFTN...WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST SNOW BY THAT POINT LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
SOME SHELTERED AREAS THAT HAD NO WIND AND HAD MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GOT
VERY COLD THIS MORNING...SUCH AS IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE
IT DROPPED AS LOW AS -13 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WERE NEAR
ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...TEMPS WILL
STEADILY WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS
AREA...AND SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN STRATOCU AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE MOISTURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AROUND 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD. MOST SITES LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE
DRY OR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL. ITS TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
331 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY COLD WEATHER...WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS
NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND IS DOING
LITTLE SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS IS
ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE LACK OF A
MULTI LAKE CONNECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 1.5 KM
WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INLAND EXTENT OF THE BAND. THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN IN THE 04Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FORECAST
PRODUCT...AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF...WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS BAND TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY /NORTH OF OLD FORGE/...SO WE HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO FOR THAT AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS...LOOKS TO DISRUPT THE FLOW AND DIMINISH THE
INTENSITY/EXTENT OF THE LAKE BAND BY THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY MORNING /MINS AROUND ZERO IN MANY AREAS/...TEMPS
WILL WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS /SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS AREA...AND
SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AROUND
10 KTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT
KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. MOST SITES
LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE
DRY OR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL. ITS TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
309 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY COLD WEATHER...WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS
NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND IS DOING
LITTLE SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS IS
ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE LACK OF A
MULTI LAKE CONNECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 1.5 KM
WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INLAND EXTENT OF THE BAND. THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN IN THE 04Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FORECAST
PRODUCT...AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF...WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS BAND TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY /NORTH OF OLD FORGE/...SO WE HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO FOR THAT AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS...LOOKS TO DISRUPT THE FLOW AND DIMINISH THE
INTENSITY/EXTENT OF THE LAKE BAND BY THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY MORNING /MINS AROUND ZERO IN MANY AREAS/...TEMPS
WILL WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS /SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS AREA...AND
SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AROUND
10 KTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT
KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. MOST SITES
LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SN.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE
DRY OR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
244 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY COLD WEATHER...WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS
NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND IS DOING
LITTLE SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS IS
ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE LACK OF A
MULTI LAKE CONNECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 1.5 KM
WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INLAND EXTENT OF THE BAND. THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN IN THE 04Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FORECAST
PRODUCT...AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF...WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS BAND TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY /NORTH OF OLD FORGE/...SO WE HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO FOR THAT AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS...LOOKS TO DISRUPT THE FLOW AND DIMINISH THE
INTENSITY/EXTENT OF THE LAKE BAND BY THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY MORNING /MINS AROUND ZERO IN MANY AREAS/...TEMPS
WILL WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS /SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS AREA...AND
SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AROUND
10 KTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT
KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. MOST SITES
LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SN.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
951 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.UPDATE...STRONG HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE TN VALLEY
AROUND 1035 MB AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SRN PARTS OF
FL. INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES OFFSHORE OF THE FL EAST COAST WITH
WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS. A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS IN THE REGION UP TO ABOUT 2000 FT WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
OUT TO THE NE OVER SE GA BUT OTHERWISE SOME NVA EXPECTED UP UNTIL
ABOUT 21Z WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
IMPACT OUR SW PORTION OF ZONES. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS FROM BRUNSWICK GA TO LIVE OAK SWD ASSOCIATED WITH OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS ATOP THE COOL BOUNDARY. RADAR SHOWERS A FEW SHOWERS AND
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER THE SRN ZONES.
FOR REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...BELIEVE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN GRADUALLY AS LOW PRES OFFSHORE OF FL EAST COAST MOVES NWD TO
THE ABOUT THE LATITUDE OF JAX TO AROUND 180 NM. EXPECT INCREASED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WE INCREASE POPS LATER TODAY SE PARTS BUT NOT HIGHER THAN CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECT THAT TONIGHT GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE AND QPF OVER SE GA. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S COAST TO AROUND 60
INLAND AND CURRENT TEMP FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR NE FL TAFS. PREVAILING VFR CIGS AROUND
3500-5000 FT AT SSI BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR BY MID AFTN THROUGH EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN MORE NELY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATE REGION WIDE TONIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND OCNL VSBY 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND BR.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ARE IN THE SCA RANGE BOTH NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
SO RAISED SCA FOR NEAR-SHORE WATERS S OF MAYPORT TIL THIS AFTN AND
EXTENDED OFFSHORE SCA INTO EVENING. WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
ENE THEN NE LATER TONIGHT AND SAT AS SFC LOW NEARS OUR WATERS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXTENT AND DURATION OF SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS
DUE TO APPROACHING SFC LOW.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH SIDE SHORE OR ONSHORE FLOW
AND EAST SWELLS. LOW TO MODERATE RISK SATURDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 59 45 62 39 / 10 90 50 0
SSI 54 48 58 46 / 20 90 80 10
JAX 56 48 62 46 / 20 90 80 10
SGJ 59 54 61 50 / 30 70 90 10
GNV 59 52 63 44 / 20 70 80 10
OCF 62 54 65 48 / 20 50 90 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
SHASHY/TRABERT/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.UPDATE...
TEMP AND POP FORECAST TODAY REMAINS THE CHALLENGE AS THE
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY PERSISTS OVER THE STATE. A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN FROM CITRUS COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH HILLSBOROUGH
AND POLK. HOWEVER...RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO AND 12Z HRRR RUN SUGGEST THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE
OVER THE COMING HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA AS A LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES...THE EXCEPTION BEING FAR SW ZONES WHERE A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE APPEARS LIKELY LATER TODAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN DESIRED FOR THE NEAR TERM.
FOR NOW...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS MADE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE THIS MORNING. VICINITY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AND IFR CEILINGS LIKELY
RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 02Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 66 57 66 54 / 40 20 70 20
FMY 80 62 80 60 / 20 10 30 30
GIF 66 57 69 54 / 40 20 50 30
SRQ 68 59 69 55 / 30 20 50 20
BKV 65 54 64 46 / 30 30 80 20
SPG 67 60 67 57 / 40 20 70 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...24/COLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1239 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.AVIATION...IFR WITH LOW CIGS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT
KAPF WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING
AT KAPF. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KPBI, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED VCSH THERE. CALM WINDS WILL BECOME EAST NEAR
5 KT THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014/
UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE OOZ SOUNDING DID INDICATE THAT THE
PWAT HAD DECREASED RELATIVE TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. THERE ARE LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE AND IS INDICATED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST...BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LAKE AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AND THEN THE ONLY REAL THREAT FOR IFR WILL BE AT KAPF.
THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ABOUT
DEVELOPING LOW CIGS OVER THE INTERIOR AND ADVECTING ACROSS THE
KAPF TERMINAL AFT 05Z AND NOT LIFTING UNTIL AROUND 15Z.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS, CANNOT DENY THIS COULD EASILY HAPPEN.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KTMB LATE IN THE
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR THAT LOCATION. THE SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR AND NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY.
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SREF IS SHOWING
NEAR 100 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT FROM SOUTH
OF NAPLES AND ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. DENSE SEA FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF WATERS...THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
THAT SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE FOG THERE. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THEN PUSH INTO THE
METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST. SO PUSHED THE PATCHY FOG CHANCE TO THE COAST AND AREAS OF
FOG INTO THE METRO AREAS FOR TONIGHT. DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY BACK NORTHWARD ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOME SLIGHT DRYING IS FORECAST TO TAKE
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY...BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES
BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH...AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. IT WILL BE WARM THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND HEAT INDICES NEARING 90.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AFFECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DROP 5-10 DEGREES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THE DRY AND
COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. IN TURN...MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH.
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...MAINLY FOR
REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS AT SITE APF AND INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCES AROUND PBI. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
INDICATE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SETTING UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHERN LOCATIONS FROM THE LAKE TO THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE PBI SITE...ANY EWD SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS COULD RESULT
IN REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND AROUND ANY ACTIVITY. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LAST NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS
DUE FOG WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN...MAINLY FOR SITE APF AND
POSSIBLY TMB. THIS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS FRIDAY
BEFORE BURNING OFF OR LIFTING. 85/AG
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT
OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 83 68 83 / 10 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 80 69 83 / 10 30 40 20
MIAMI 71 83 69 84 / 10 30 30 20
NAPLES 66 81 66 81 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
924 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS SHOWING A DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SOLUTIONS INITIATED WELL WITH PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM AND TRACK IT ALONG THE WA/OR BORDER
OVERNIGHT. MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE IN QPF AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/SNOW AMOUNTS MOSTLY ON THE FRONT AND BACK
ENDS AS THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT IS A BIT DELAYED ACROSS SW IDAHO
ZONES AND WILL LIKELY END ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY
5AM MST FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE CONTINUING THROUGH MID-DAY IN
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. THAT SAID STILL LOOKING AT 1-2 INCHES
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 IN THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY BY NOON FRIDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES OR LONG
TERM ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. MVFR/IFR SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO END BY 12Z EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
IDAHO WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT DETERIORATING CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MORE IFR-MVFR SNOW. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END
SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SURFACE
WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ALOFT...WEST AROUND 40 KTS AT 10K FT
MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH SATURDAY. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORIES FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA UP TO A WARNING BECAUSE OF THE LONG DURATION
COMBINED WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ALSO BECAUSE THERE WILL BE SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEAST OREGON THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND INTO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. ADVISORIES
STILL COVER THE TREASURE VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE MAIN THING TO KNOW ABOUT THIS IS THAT THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN
PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW...ONE TONIGHT AS AN INITIAL WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND A SECOND ONE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS A SECOND...STRONGER...WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IN
ADDITION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING MORE
SNOW TO THE TOTAL. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 MPH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE
DRIFTING SNOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR ROAD CREWS
TO KEEP THE ROADS CLEAR. THIS IS ANOTHER REASON TO UPGRADE FROM
ADVISORY TO WARNING. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. TEMPS HAVE BARELY RISEN OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION OF THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS SQUEEZED THROUGH THE PASSES
AND MOVED WESTWARD THROUGH ROCKIES AND INTO OUR AREA...SNOW ON THE
GROUND...AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL. WE HAVE GONE WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE AGAIN TOMORROW...EVEN AFTER TONIGHT/S WARM FRONT...
BETTING THE SAME BASIC THING WILL HAPPEN. ON SATURDAY...AFTER THE
SECOND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS COULD THEORETICALLY WARM
INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WE DID NOT PUT THIS IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE WE BELIEVE
THAT THE SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL INHIBIT WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO REACH WELL BELOW NORMAL AS WELL...EVEN THOUGH
THERE IS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. POPS WERE RAISED AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE PRECIP EVENT IS EXTREMELY HIGH NOW.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE BREAKS IN THE PRECIP FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL MOST FOLKS
WILL SEE SNOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITHIN EACH DAY/NIGHT
PERIOD IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. FINALLY...THE TIMING OF THE
WARMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH IS IMPORTANT. WE HAVE
SNOW CHANGING TO A MIX OR TO ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
LONGER IT TAKES FOR THIS TO HAPPEN...THE MORE SNOW WILL PILE UP
BEFORE IT STARTS TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE RAIN. EVEN AFTER IT
CHANGES TO RAIN...FOR MANY BACK ROADS THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE FROM
SNOW AND ICE...TO WATER-COVERED ICE...WHICH IS MANY TIMES EVEN
MORE SLICK. BE SAFE OUT THERE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MILD MOIST PACIFIC AIR INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE LEAST
CONSISTENT ON TIMING INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...SO OUR FORECAST RELIES ON
BLENDS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE EUROPEAN MODELS. THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE
SNOW IS STILL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
2-4 INCHES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS
WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY IDZ015-016-029-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY
IDZ011>014-028-033.
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ SATURDAY
ORZ061-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY ORZ064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ062.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/TB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
832 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
PREVIOUS THINKING STILL APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART BUT
HAVE TRIMMED SNOW AMOUNTS AND POPS INTO CENTRAL IA AS DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE REDUCING NRN EXTENT. THIS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATES
MENTION IN IMMEDIATE DES MOINES AREA...ALTHOUGH SNOW IS IN
PROGRESS JUST TO THE SOUTH IN WARREN CO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST RAISING
POPS TONIGHT SO NOW HAVE CATEGORICAL WORDING GOING SOUTH VS
LIKELIES. ALSO NUDGED SNOW AMOUNTS UP A BIT BASED ON HIGHER RATIOS
BUT THE SAME QPF. 18Z NAM/GFS COBB OUTPUT SUGGESTS AT LEAST UPPER
TEENS. MORNING RATIOS WERE 20 TO 30:1...HIGHER IN SPOTS...SO
CANNOT SEE CONDITIONS CHANGING THAT MUCH IN THAT SHORT OF TIME.
12Z HOPWRF RUNS AND LATEST RAP POINTED TOWARD HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
WELL. STATIC STABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LOWER TOO SO FULLY EXPECT
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO BE LOCALIZED. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY NARROW
NATURE OF THE SNOW BAND...FULLY EXPECT FORECAST ERRORS ON THE HIGH
AND LOW END OF THINGS. TEKAMAH VISIBILITIES WERE LOCALLY DOWN TO A
HALF MILE FOR INSTANCE WITH SURROUND SITES STILL AT SEVERAL MILES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST AND INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. A RIBBON OF THERMODYNAMIC FORCING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE WITH AN INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPING AROUND
700 MB. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BAND AS
FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE ARRIVES. SHOULD HAVE AN AREA OF
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING FOCUSED IN
THE -17C TO -25C RANGE AND SATURATION NOT COMPLETE...MAY HAVE
DENDRITES DEVELOP BUT THE PRIMARY FLAKES WILL BE LOWER SNOW RATIO
SMALL PLATES. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN SPILL INTO THE STATE LATE.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH AND COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 MPH...WILL PUSH WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20 TO
25 BELOW ZERO THERE. WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THE FAR
NORTH.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE MARKED BY QUIET BUT VERY COLD
WEATHER AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE...MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA ON SUNDAY
BUT VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AND ONLY DOWN NEAR THE
MISSOURI BORDER. THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE POLAR AIR
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS DURING THE DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
MORNING LOWS FAR BELOW ZERO EACH DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING AND AN EXTENSIVE
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE TO COVER THIS THREAT.
LATE ON TUESDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES AND USHERING IN A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEW PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THROUGH WHICH A SERIES OF COMPACT BUT
FAIRLY ROBUST 500 MB TROUGHS WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
TURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN EACH DAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND PROVIDING INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. FOR
NOW IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN THE PRECISE TIMING OF
ANY SNOW THAT WILL FALL...AS THESE QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEMS ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THAT EXACTLY SO MANY DAYS OUT...BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THERE IS MUCH THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...09/00Z
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE BAND OF SNOW AFFECTING KDSM/KOTM TONIGHT.
EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY FOR A
PERIOD JUST SOUTH OF KDSM TOWARD KOTM. COULD EVEN SEE LOWER
BRIEFLY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THERE TO INJECT AS OF YET. SNOW SHOULD
THEN END AROUND 09Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AREA WIDE. WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO SUN...ESSENTIALLY REMAINING NLY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CERRO
GORDO-EMMET-HANCOCK-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WINNEBAGO-WORTH.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
630 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST RAISING
POPS TONIGHT SO NOW HAVE CATEGORICAL WORDING GOING SOUTH VS
LIKELIES. ALSO NUDGED SNOW AMOUNTS UP A BIT BASED ON HIGHER RATIOS
BUT THE SAME QPF. 18Z NAM/GFS COBB OUTPUT SUGGESTS AT LEAST UPPER
TEENS. MORNING RATIOS WERE 20 TO 30:1...HIGHER IN SPOTS...SO
CANNOT SEE CONDITIONS CHANGING THAT MUCH IN THAT SHORT OF TIME.
12Z HOPWRF RUNS AND LATEST RAP POINTED TOWARD HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
WELL. STATIC STABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LOWER TOO SO FULLY EXPECT
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO BE LOCALIZED. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY NARROW
NATURE OF THE SNOW BAND...FULLY EXPECT FORECAST ERRORS ON THE HIGH
AND LOW END OF THINGS. TEKAMAH VISIBILITIES WERE LOCALLY DOWN TO A
HALF MILE FOR INSTANCE WITH SURROUND SITES STILL AT SEVERAL MILES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST AND INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. A RIBBON OF THERMODYNAMIC FORCING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE WITH AN INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPING AROUND
700 MB. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BAND AS
FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE ARRIVES. SHOULD HAVE AN AREA OF
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING FOCUSED IN
THE -17C TO -25C RANGE AND SATURATION NOT COMPLETE...MAY HAVE
DENDRITES DEVELOP BUT THE PRIMARY FLAKES WILL BE LOWER SNOW RATIO
SMALL PLATES. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN SPILL INTO THE STATE LATE.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH AND COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 MPH...WILL PUSH WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20 TO
25 BELOW ZERO THERE. WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THE FAR
NORTH.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE MARKED BY QUIET BUT VERY COLD
WEATHER AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE...MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA ON SUNDAY
BUT VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AND ONLY DOWN NEAR THE
MISSOURI BORDER. THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE POLAR AIR
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS DURING THE DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
MORNING LOWS FAR BELOW ZERO EACH DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING AND AN EXTENSIVE
HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE TO COVER THIS THREAT.
LATE ON TUESDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES AND USHERING IN A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEW PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THROUGH WHICH A SERIES OF COMPACT BUT
FAIRLY ROBUST 500 MB TROUGHS WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
TURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN EACH DAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND PROVIDING INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. FOR
NOW IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN THE PRECISE TIMING OF
ANY SNOW THAT WILL FALL...AS THESE QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEMS ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THAT EXACTLY SO MANY DAYS OUT...BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THERE IS MUCH THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...09/00Z
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE BAND OF SNOW AFFECTING KDSM/KOTM TONIGHT.
EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY FOR A
PERIOD JUST SOUTH OF KDSM TOWARD KOTM. COULD EVEN SEE LOWER
BRIEFLY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THERE TO INJECT AS OF YET. SNOW SHOULD
THEN END AROUND 09Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AREA WIDE. WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO SUN...ESSENTIALLY REMAINING NLY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CERRO
GORDO-EMMET-HANCOCK-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WINNEBAGO-WORTH.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
547 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
This afternoon a longer wave length upper level trough was located
across the upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes. The mid and
upper level flow across the plains was from the northwest.
A minor upper level trough over west central Canada and MT will dig
southeast across the plains on Sunday. Low-level CAA across the
northern plains will cause a cold front to push southward across the
CWA later tonight. Ahead of the front there may be enough isentropic
lift at the 280K surface for some light flurries or light patchy
freezing drizzle. I only kept a slight chance since condensation
pressure deficits on the 280K surface will increase and the layer
may dry enough to prevent freezing drizzle from reaching the
surface. Overnight lows will occur around sunrise after the colder
airmass moves south across the CWA.
Sunday, stronger ascent ahead of the H5 trough moving southeast
across the central plains will cause light snow to develop from
northwest to southeast across the CWA. Both the 12Z NAM and 12Z
ECMWF show the greater chances for snowfall across the the northern
counties of the CWA where perhaps up to an inch of snow may fall
through the day. Along and south of I-70 only occasional show
showers are expected with perhaps a dusting of snowfall. The 12Z GFS
model had the higher QPF across the central portions of the CWA.
Highs behind the cold front will be colder than Today`s highs, as a
1036 MB surface ridge axis builds southward across the CWA by late
afternoon. The snow should end across north central KS by the late
afternoon hours. North winds will increase to 15 to 20 MPH with
gusts of 25 to 30 MPH during the mid morning hours and last into the
afternoon, so there may be some blowing and drifting of the snow
already on the ground. Highs will only reach the mid teens across
the northern counties to the lower to mid 20s across east central
KS. Temperatures across the southeast counties will probably hold
steady if not slowly fall through the day.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
By Sunday night, a mid-level trough will be centered over the Great
Lakes region, with northwesterly flow over the Central Plains.
Models continue to show the potential for a few very weak embedded
waves to develop within this flow Sunday night into Monday. One of
these waves should be just east of the area by Sunday night, however
some models have trended a little slower with this wave in which
some light precipitation may potentially linger over far eastern
Kansas early in the evening, so will need to continue watching that
feature. Otherwise, a second wave is progged to track southeastward
from northwest to southeast Kansas overnight through Monday. The
GFS/ECMWF/GEM have trended a bit further south with this wave,
having it barely skimming our far southern counties. However the NAM
along with the hi-res ARW/NMM have the wave tracking further north,
bringing better chances for light snow from north central to east
central Kansas. Due to this uncertainty in tracking, still have only
slight to chance PoPs in for Sunday night through Monday. Even if
this wave ends up tracking further north and clipping parts of the
forecast area, there doesn`t seem to be much lift available to
support decent snow development. In fact, have kept QPF values low
with upwards of 0.5 to near 1 inch of snow possible over central to
east central Kansas Sunday night through Monday. With the surface
high pressure centered over the Northern Plains spilling southward
into the Central Plain, temperatures will remain cool with lows
Sunday night in the single digits and Monday highs only reaching
into the teens with northeasterly winds and mostly cloudy skies in
place.
Monday night through Wednesday this surface high will gradually
shift toward the southeastern U.S. The center of the high looks to
pass just east of the area Tuesday morning, and models continue to
vary greatly in just how cold surface temperatures will get as the
surface high strengthens. The ECMWF remains noticeably colder (like
yesterday`s 12z run), however today the GEM 12z run has gone even
colder than the ECMWF. Still not confident in this extreme cold
actually occurring even though a decent snow pack will still be in
place and skies will begin to clear by Tuesday morning. At the same
time, feel the GFS still may be a bit too warm, so have trended
closer to the NAM with Tuesday morning low temperatures which puts
the region near the 0 degree mark. This colder trend in temperatures
in the ECMWF/GEM continues through Tuesday, but with winds shifting
to the southwest due to the surface high tracking southeast of the
area, feel that high temperatures should be able to reach into the
low/mid 20s. Models are in agreement that the pressure gradient
should increase over the region Tuesday night into Wednesday,
resulting in increased southwesterly flow and better waa into the
region. This waa combined with mostly clear skies should help to
boost lows Tuesday night into the teens and Wednesday highs into the
30s. However, with several inches of snow still on the ground, we
will have to monitor how the melting snow affects temperatures through the
latter part of the week.
Models continue to be very inconsistent for the latter part of the
week into the weekend with the tracking of the next couple of
systems. Models are in agreement in showing an area of low pressure
tracking eastward over the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes
region with an associated cold front extending southward and tracking across
the area. The GFS remains the fastest in bringing the front through
Thursday morning, but the ECMWF/GEM have the front moving in faster
than previous runs, bringing it through Thursday afternoon and
evening. A second surface low follows a very similar track across
the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday with another cold front
expected to move through the region, but this time the ECMWF is
faster than the GFS. With these timing differences in the frontal
passages, confidence remains low for the temperature/wind forecast
towards the end of the week into the weekend. There doesn`t look to
be much available moisture with these frontal passages, with only
the ECMWF ramping up precip along the second front as it exits the
region. Removed the mention of slight PoPs that the consensus blend
had for eastern Kansas Friday night due to the model uncertainty.
While the temperature forecast is a bit uncertain, the temperature
trends within the models show that there shouldn`t be much cold air
moving in behind these fronts. In fact, could see temperatures
moderating into the 40s by the end of the week, which will certainly
aid in melting the snow across the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
Some limitations should rule this forecast, and IFR to even lower
conditions possible. Weak SW winds ahead of cold front bringing
better low level moisture into the terminals. This along with
diurnal trends should allow cigs to drop to IFR in the next few
hours. NAM and RAP similar with area of near-surface moisture
convergence along and behind approaching front and could see FZDZ
result around 06Z. Believe this will clear out a bit by 10Z as
drier air moves in. Of course the deep snow on the ground makes
boundary layer forecasts tricky. Next wave may produce -SN late in
the forecast.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1008 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
UPDATE TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE. WIND CHILL READINGS
HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME A PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND AND WHAT TO DO WITH THE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED FLOW
OVER THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD TROUGHINESS AND FAST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY. SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
MOVING EAST. TWO STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES ARE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS HAS MODIFIED SOME BUT IS STILL COLD AND MOIST.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF DID THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
THIS WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
FIRST THE MODELS...EVEN THE MESOSCALE ONES...HAVING A HARD TIME THIS
MORNING RESOLVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. SECOND IS THE MODELS DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING
UPPER JET FEATURES AND SURFACE/LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IN REGARDS TO CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE HIGHLIGHT HAVE VERIFIED WITH THE
REMAINING AREA NOT THAT FAR AWAY. CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LET
TEMPERATURES DROP MUCH MORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST WHICH
HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE NIGHT. AM NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
MUCH MORE OF THE ADVISORY VERIFYING BUT ANY SMALL SHIFT OF THE WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEN A
STRONGER LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. GOING BY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. THAT COMBINED WITH THE JET
LIFT IS CAUSING FLURRIES THIS MORNING. ALSO IN THE RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WAS
NOT CAUGHT BY ANYTHING EARLIER BUT NOW THE HRRR HAS RECENTLY CAUGHT
ON TO THIS IDEA A LITTLE. SO WILL HAVE FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG PER
REALITY AND 00Z SOUNDINGS FOR THIS MORNING.
AM THINKING THE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST IF NOT THE
ENTIRE DAY WITH MAYBE THE EXCEPTION IN THE FAR WEST. SO TENDED TO
COOL MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EASTERN PORTION BEING
THE COLDEST.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH STARTS MOVING THROUGH
EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY SO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD START IN DROPPING AND GETTING COLDER.
HOWEVER...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TENDED TO NOT CHANGE THE MINS VERY MUCH. NEXT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
CAN SEE FOG...ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT HAS HAPPENED THIS MORNING...BUT
THINK THE MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO REMOVED
THAT AND KEPT THE FOG.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY START SHOWING
THEMSELVES HEAR. MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION AND STRUCTURE OF A
COMPLICATED JET WHICH HAS DIFFERENT CONSEQUENCES IN THE FORECAST. AT
THIS TIME THE BEST LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET AND PV ANOMALY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SCARCE WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF LIFT...REMOVED PRECIPITATION
FROM THE MORNING AND KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS FLURRIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT PLUS THE
REAL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SO
ALSO KEPT THE NIGHT POPS WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
UNCERTAINTY BUT THINK POPS MAY BE OVERDONE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH
FOR THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INDICATED 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE...BREEZY
AND MORE LIKELY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
AND IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE DAY. AS SPECIFIED ABOVE THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER WEAKER BOUNDARY/PRELIMINARY COLD PUSH MOVING INTO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS...DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CAN GO
EITHER WAY BUT THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING IN THIS COOLER AIR. CONSIDERING WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...LIKE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD AIR. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE TEMPERATURES AND IN SOME
CASES SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE MODELS BLAST THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH A MODEL OR TWO RETREATING THE FRONT AND THEN
BRING IT BACK THROUGH OR BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THERE ARE EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS AND WENT COLDER.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUR AREA TENDS TO
REMAIN BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT JET SEGMENTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHEN
BY LATE IN THE DAY A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS INDICATED. THEN THE
BRUNT OF THIS AND OTHER LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES GET BETTER DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL. SOUNDINGS
START MOISTENING UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND REALLY ONLY BECOME
SATURATED DURING THE NIGHT.
SO BELIEVE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH NEIGHBORS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY. SO MADE TWO ADJUSTMENTS PER
REASONING ABOVE. SPLIT SUNDAY POPS INTO A MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. MODELS DISAGREE WHEN IT WILL
HAPPEN...BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT RECEIVING SNOW AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND
THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BRINGING WARMER
AIR OVER THE AREA. EVEN IF THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IS FURTHER
WEST...WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...AM THINKING FLURRIES ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND DEEPENS EAST OF
THE AREA WHERE PRECIP. CHANCES WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
OTHERWISE THE LAMINAR NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY NUDGES EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL START OUT AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS THE
COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 959 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
A BIT OF A MESSY START TO THE TAF PERIOD REGARDING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FOR BOTH TAF SITES. BOTH KMCK AND KGLD ARE
EXPERIENCING LOW CEILINGS AND HAZE...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITH A BREAK IN
THE CLOUD COVER. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT FOR BOTH TAF
SITES...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH LOW MVFR
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR BOTH TAF SITES FOR
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE
CO...NONE
NE...NONE
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
445 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND AND WHAT TO DO WITH THE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED FLOW
OVER THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD TROUGHINESS AND FAST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY. SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
MOVING EAST. TWO STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES ARE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS HAS MODIFIED SOME BUT IS STILL COLD AND MOIST.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF DID THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
THIS WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
FIRST THE MODELS...EVEN THE MESOSCALE ONES...HAVING A HARD TIME THIS
MORNING RESOLVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. SECOND IS THE MODELS DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING
UPPER JET FEATURES AND SURFACE/LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IN REGARDS TO CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE HIGHLIGHT HAVE VERIFIED WITH THE
REMAINING AREA NOT THAT FAR AWAY. CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LET
TEMPERATURES DROP MUCH MORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST WHICH
HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE NIGHT. AM NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
MUCH MORE OF THE ADVISORY VERIFYING BUT ANY SMALL SHIFT OF THE WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEN A
STRONGER LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. GOING BY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. THAT COMBINED WITH THE JET
LIFT IS CAUSING FLURRIES THIS MORNING. ALSO IN THE RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WAS
NOT CAUGHT BY ANYTHING EARLIER BUT NOW THE HRRR HAS RECENTLY CAUGHT
ON TO THIS IDEA A LITTLE. SO WILL HAVE FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG PER
REALITY AND 00Z SOUNDINGS FOR THIS MORNING.
AM THINKING THE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST IF NOT THE
ENTIRE DAY WITH MAYBE THE EXCEPTION IN THE FAR WEST. SO TENDED TO
COOL MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EASTERN PORTION BEING
THE COLDEST.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH STARTS MOVING THROUGH
EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY SO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD START IN DROPPING AND GETTING COLDER.
HOWEVER...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TENDED TO NOT CHANGE THE MINS VERY MUCH. NEXT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
CAN SEE FOG...ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT HAS HAPPENED THIS MORNING...BUT
THINK THE MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO REMOVED
THAT AND KEPT THE FOG.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY START SHOWING
THEMSELVES HEAR. MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION AND STRUCTURE OF A
COMPLICATED JET WHICH HAS DIFFERENT CONSEQUENCES IN THE FORECAST. AT
THIS TIME THE BEST LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET AND PV ANOMALY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SCARCE WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF LIFT...REMOVED PRECIPITATION
FROM THE MORNING AND KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS FLURRIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT PLUS THE
REAL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SO
ALSO KEPT THE NIGHT POPS WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
UNCERTAINTY BUT THINK POPS MAY BE OVERDONE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH
FOR THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INDICATED 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE...BREEZY
AND MORE LIKELY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
AND IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE DAY. AS SPECIFIED ABOVE THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER WEAKER BOUNDARY/PRELIMINARY COLD PUSH MOVING INTO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS...DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CAN GO
EITHER WAY BUT THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING IN THIS COOLER AIR. CONSIDERING WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...LIKE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD AIR. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE TEMPERATURES AND IN SOME
CASES SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE MODELS BLAST THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH A MODEL OR TWO RETREATING THE FRONT AND THEN
BRING IT BACK THROUGH OR BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THERE ARE EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS AND WENT COLDER.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUR AREA TENDS TO
REMAIN BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT JET SEGMENTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHEN
BY LATE IN THE DAY A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS INDICATED. THEN THE
BRUNT OF THIS AND OTHER LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES GET BETTER DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL. SOUNDINGS
START MOISTENING UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND REALLY ONLY BECOME
SATURATED DURING THE NIGHT.
SO BELIEVE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH NEIGHBORS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY. SO MADE TWO ADJUSTMENTS PER
REASONING ABOVE. SPLIT SUNDAY POPS INTO A MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. MODELS DISAGREE WHEN IT WILL
HAPPEN...BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT RECEIVING SNOW AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND
THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BRINGING WARMER
AIR OVER THE AREA. EVEN IF THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IS FURTHER
WEST...WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...AM THINKING FLURRIES ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND DEEPENS EAST OF
THE AREA WHERE PRECIP. CHANCES WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
OTHERWISE THE LAMINAR NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY NUDGES EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL START OUT AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS THE
COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
TRICKY SET OF TAFS ESPECIALLY CURRENT MODEL SUITE CATCHING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL FIELD VERY WELL. FOR KGLD...MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z. THEN PRECIPITATION AND FOG
ENDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS LASTING LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR KMCK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BECOME MVFR AROUND 06Z. BY 09Z VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
511 AM CST Fri Feb 7 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
09Z water vapor imagery shows a low amplitude shortwave coming
across NM while a closed low spins off the British Columbia coast
with another shortwave rotating around the low towards ID. Meanwhile
surface obs show an expansive ridge of high pressure centered over
the middle MS river valley. Surface winds have already started to
show southerly flow returning to central KS. Cloud cover has
prevented temps from falling below zero for most areas. This
combined with calm winds means wind chill values are not quite as
low as originally forecast.
For today and tonight, the forecast area is expected to generally
remain in between the main two shortwaves with the southern wave
moving across OK and TX today while the wave near ID moves from the
northern plains into IA overnight. So in general large scale forcing
for precip appears to be pretty marginal. There remains some
indications for some weak isentropic upglide through the day and
into the evening within the low level warm air advection pattern on
the back side of the departing surface ridge. However the isentropic
upglide never really looks robust. Model forecast soundings continue
to suggest the stratus layer will be around -12C through at least
the day. So with the likelihood for ice within the cloud think trace
amounts of light snow would be the most likely precip today.
Overnight the cloud layer becomes relatively warmer so ice becomes
less likely. However models show only very weak vertical motion if
there is any at all. The 00Z NAM was the most robust with the low
level vertical motion tonight, but was also considered an outlier on
the strong side in amplifying the northern shortwave. The 06Z NAM
has trended less amplified with the wave and also shows less
vertical motion within the cloud overnight. So think chances for
measurable precip are less than 20 percent and have lowered POPs. Am
not that excited about freezing drizzle chances either, but will
keep a mention across southern counties where mid levels are most
likely to dry out leaving only super cooled water in the cloud.
Tweaked highs today down a degree from the previous forecast due
mainly to overcast skies expected through the day. Still with the
weak warm air advection, highs should manage the middle teens. Do
not think there will be much of a diurnal change between today`s
highs and Saturday`s lows with southerly winds and overcast skies
persisting through the night. Therefore the forecast has Lows
Saturday morning in the 10 to 15 degree range.
Wolters
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
An upper trough on Saturday continues to deepen as it migrates
southeastward towards the Mississippi Valley. A trailing surface low
will force a cold front into northeast Kansas on Saturday afternoon.
Could see some decent warming ahead of the wind shift with clearing
skies and temperatures peaking into the upper 20s/lower 30s. Cold
air advection quickly spreads behind the front, falling temperatures
through the afternoon and evening. Models deviate somewhat on how
far south the 1040 MB surface high spreads southward behind the
departing trough. Overnight lows Sunday morning were averaged in the
single digits to low teens, however if the ECMWF were to verify
spreading the ridge axis further south, actual temperatures Sunday
could be much lower. The arctic high pressure influence Saturday
through Tuesday will keep temperatures below normal. Highs overall
range in the teens and lower 20s with overnight lows in the single
digits, close to zero degrees near the Nebraska and Kansas border.
Wind chills at this time do not appear to be much lower as high
pressure maintains light wind speeds. On Wednesday, upper shortwave
trough entering the Pacific Northwest deepens across the Northern
Plains. Meanwhile, the accompanying h85 trough backs winds to the
southwest, advecting much needed warm air into northeast Kansas for
Wednesday and especially Thursday. Wednesday highs range at and just
above the freezing mark and Thursday is currently progged in the 40s
allowing for ample melting of the snow to occur.
Focus turns to precipitation chances where confidence in each event
is low due to the very active and weak zonal flow in the mid levels.
The aforementioned shortwave trough expected to bring a cold front
through on Saturday, also develops a strong PV anomaly over eastern
Nebraska into southern Iowa. While ample lift is prevalent just to
our northeast, could still some light snow across far northeast
Kansas. Therefore kept the previous forecast with little to no
accumulations expected. The 500 HPA jet increases southward into the
area with increasing isentropic lift in the 850-700 MB layer. Saturation
is difficult to achieve dependent on the model, NAM remaining dry in
the dendritic layer while the GFS saturates the column by early
Sunday. Regardless, forcing on either model is not particularly
strong to warrant several inches of accumulating snow. Snow ratios
do appear more on the higher side between 15 and 20:1 translating to
near an inch of new snowfall on Sunday. Pops were increased ten percent
into the chance category for this period. Models differ greatly by
Monday as the ECMWF is slower than the GFS by a day with the next
shortwave trough coming off the California coast. The GFS also keeps
the PV anomaly over the Southern Plains with some minor QPF values
over the southern half of the CWA. Have therefore kept the slight
chances for snow Monday through Tuesday with no expectations of snow
accumulating at this point. Forecast becomes dry Wednesday onward.
Another system following a similar track across the Intermountain
West deepens over Nebraska on Wednesday evening. Confidence is too
low for mentioning precipitation; trends of the models will be
monitored for consistency in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 511 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
Models show stratus hanging in through Saturday morning as low
level warm air advection brings relatively moist air into the
area. Main uncertainty is when CIGS might lower to MVFR. RAP has
tended to be aggressive with low level RH and the NAM seems to be
the slowest in bringing the lower CIGS into the terminals. So used
a compromise in timing with the RAP/NAM/GFS which was pretty close
to the prev forecast. Low level vertical motion continues to look
meager so any precip should be very light. Any VSBY restrictions
should remain above 3SM due to expected light nature to any
flurries or very light mist and some mixing in the boundary layer.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND AND WHAT TO DO WITH THE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED FLOW
OVER THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD TROUGHINESS AND FAST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY. SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
MOVING EAST. TWO STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES ARE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS HAS MODIFIED SOME BUT IS STILL COLD AND MOIST.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF DID THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
THIS WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
FIRST THE MODELS...EVEN THE MESOSCALE ONES...HAVING A HARD TIME THIS
MORNING RESOLVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. SECOND IS THE MODELS DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING
UPPER JET FEATURES AND SURFACE/LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IN REGARDS TO CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE HIGHLIGHT HAVE VERIFIED WITH THE
REMAINING AREA NOT THAT FAR AWAY. CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LET
TEMPERATURES DROP MUCH MORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST WHICH
HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE NIGHT. AM NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
MUCH MORE OF THE ADVISORY VERIFYING BUT ANY SMALL SHIFT OF THE WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEN A
STRONGER LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. GOING BY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. THAT COMBINED WITH THE JET
LIFT IS CAUSING FLURRIES THIS MORNING. ALSO IN THE RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WAS
NOT CAUGHT BY ANYTHING EARLIER BUT NOW THE HRRR HAS RECENTLY CAUGHT
ON TO THIS IDEA A LITTLE. SO WILL HAVE FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG PER
REALITY AND 00Z SOUNDINGS FOR THIS MORNING.
AM THINKING THE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST IF NOT THE
ENTIRE DAY WITH MAYBE THE EXCEPTION IN THE FAR WEST. SO TENDED TO
COOL MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EASTERN PORTION BEING
THE COLDEST.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH STARTS MOVING THROUGH
EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY SO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD START IN DROPPING AND GETTING COLDER.
HOWEVER...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TENDED TO NOT CHANGE THE MINS VERY MUCH. NEXT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
CAN SEE FOG...ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT HAS HAPPENED THIS MORNING...BUT
THINK THE MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO REMOVED
THAT AND KEPT THE FOG.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY START SHOWING
THEMSELVES HEAR. MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION AND STRUCTURE OF A
COMPLICATED JET WHICH HAS DIFFERENT CONSEQUENCES IN THE FORECAST. AT
THIS TIME THE BEST LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET AND PV ANOMALY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SCARCE WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF LIFT...REMOVED PRECIPITATION
FROM THE MORNING AND KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS FLURRIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT PLUS THE
REAL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SO
ALSO KEPT THE NIGHT POPS WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
UNCERTAINTY BUT THINK POPS MAY BE OVERDONE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH
FOR THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INDICATED 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE...BREEZY
AND MORE LIKELY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
AND IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE DAY. AS SPECIFIED ABOVE THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER WEAKER BOUNDARY/PRELIMINARY COLD PUSH MOVING INTO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS...DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CAN GO
EITHER WAY BUT THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING IN THIS COOLER AIR. CONSIDERING WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...LIKE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD AIR. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE TEMPERATURES AND IN SOME
CASES SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE MODELS BLAST THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH A MODEL OR TWO RETREATING THE FRONT AND THEN
BRING IT BACK THROUGH OR BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THERE ARE EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS AND WENT COLDER.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUR AREA TENDS TO
REMAIN BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT JET SEGMENTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHEN
BY LATE IN THE DAY A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS INDICATED. THEN THE
BRUNT OF THIS AND OTHER LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES GET BETTER DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL. SOUNDINGS
START MOISTENING UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND REALLY ONLY BECOME
SATURATED DURING THE NIGHT.
SO BELIEVE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH NEIGHBORS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY. SO MADE TWO ADJUSTMENTS PER
REASONING ABOVE. SPLIT SUNDAY POPS INTO A MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. MODELS DISAGREE WHEN IT WILL
HAPPEN...BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT RECEIVING SNOW AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND
THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BRINGING WARMER
AIR OVER THE AREA. EVEN IF THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IS FURTHER
WEST...WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...AM THINKING FLURRIES ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND DEEPENS EAST OF
THE AREA WHERE PRECIP. CHANCES WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
OTHERWISE THE LAMINAR NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY NUDGES EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL START OUT AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS THE
COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
GLD MAY SEE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 13-15Z...
OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH MCK AND GLD DUE MAINLY TO LOW CLOUDS. AFTER
00-03Z...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN DISSIPATING WITH AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
838 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKER OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA SO WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED MIN
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO RUC VALUES.
GRIDS UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
UPDATE...THE EVENING LCH SOUNDING SHOWS THE INVERSION REMAINS
SOLID BELOW 3100 FT WHILE SUBSIDENCE HAS PRODUCED A DRY ATMOSPHERE
ABOVE THIS LAYER. THE PREVIOUS AIRMASS HAD AN ADDITIONAL LAYER OF
MOISTURE UP TO 5K FT. WHAT HAD BEEN A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW HAS COME
ABOUT TO AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH MOISTURE MAKING ENROADS NEAR THE
SURFACE.
THE LATEST MAV IS SHOWING A STRONG FOG SIGNAL AND VIS IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO LOWER AT BPT AND POINTS WEST. WILL GO WITH WIDESPREAD
FOG FORMATION BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND LINGERING UNTIL MID- MORNING
SUNDAY. WE MAY NEED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXCEPT THAT
LOW CIGS MAY DELAY OR IMPEDE THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG. ADJUSTED
TEMPS HIGHER NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DUE TO THE APPROACHING
SATURATION.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
AVIATION...
CLOUD SHIELD FALLING APART BUT WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVE WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY...WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SET UP ACROSS SE TX/SW
LA THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY BKN/OVC ~2500FT OBSERVED FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH A FEW AREAS OF SHORT LIVED CLEARING ACROSS C AND SC
LA. OTHERWISE...TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON.
CLEARING NOT LOOKING AS PROMISING AS BEFORE...AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION LAYER. WHILE
EXPECTING SOME MIXING...WILL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS
EVENING...BECOMING PREDOMINATELY MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
REMAINING INTO SUN. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S SUN MORNING.
WITH CONTINUED WAA...HIGHS SUN EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S.
ALONG WITH THE WAA...HIGHER DEWPTS IN THE 50S AND EVENTUALLY 60S
WILL ADVECT OVER THE COOLER WATERS OFF THE SE TX/LA COAST AND
LAKES/BAYS (RUNNING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S). THUS...PATCHY MARINE
FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET SUN...LIKELY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER MID THRU NOON MON.
THE NEXT SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION MON-WED. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STALLING ACROSS THE NW GULF TUE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES/SFC LOWS TO MOVE NE DURING THE
DAY TUE/EARLY WED. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT
TODAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW LINGERING THE PRECIP WELL INTO WED
MORNING...WITH THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF NOW A BIT QUICKER AND ENDING
THE PRECIP LATE TUE EVENING. BOTH SHOWING SFC TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
30S FOR TUE MORNING...BUT SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR WED MORNING (WITH
THE ECMWF COLDER WITH MORE CAA AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION).
TO SUMMARIZE THIS...UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE IS SEEN...OPTED TO KEEP
INHERITED TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WED MORNING ACROSS INLAND SE
TX/C LA...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ENDING WED MORNING. OF
COURSE...ANY SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPS DOWNWARD WOULD DICTATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN PRECIP FOR THIS REGION...BUT AGAIN...JUST NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS PRECIP FREE AS ANOTHER
WEAKER FRONT EXPECTED TO RE-INFORCE THE DRY CONDITIONS ON THU.
DML
MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...THEN
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS ONE
OR MORE FRONTAL WAVES DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 46 68 54 61 40 / 0 10 20 40 50
KBPT 46 71 54 60 40 / 0 10 20 40 50
KAEX 42 66 50 54 35 / 0 10 20 40 60
KLFT 46 69 54 62 40 / 0 10 10 40 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
941 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
941 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF CLOUD COVER IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FIRST IS A BKN DECK AROUND 5K FT AGL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE THAT IS MOVING OFF THE ST LAWRENCE. THE SECOND IS A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AT AROUND 4K FT
AGL THAT COVER THE AREA ALONG THE NY/VT BORDER WITH QUEBEC AND
EXTEND INTO MAINE. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING ACROSS
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE THIRD AREA OF
CLOUDS ARE CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS DOWNEAST AND INTO CENTRAL MAINE.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. AS OF 9 PM THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE A LITTLE BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NW AROOSTOOK COUNTY. DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS
TO THE LOWS...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WHERE A FEW SPOTS
WERE ALREADY VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS. OTHERWISE ONLY A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BKN SC AND SCT FLURRIES ACROSS THE N SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVE
AS WINDS DECREASE. WITH THE SFC HI APCHG LATER TNGT AND THEN
CRESTING OVR THE FA BY SUN MORN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
DECOUPLING OF WINDS OVR SPCLY NRN/CNTRL VLY LCTNS BY LATE TNGT
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WENT SIG BLO
MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVRNGT LOWS OVR NRN VLYS AND SOMEWHAT BLO
ELSEWHERE. MODELS INDICATE CLDNSS TO ADVANCE INTO SW PTNS OF THE
FA LATE TNGT INTO SUN MORN AS A WEAK SUB-SYNOPTIC S/WV FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LKS MOVES E INTO THE GULF OF ME. IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE SIG LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE FA...SO WE DID
NOT GO WITH ANY POPS ABV 14 PERCENT ATTM...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED OVRNGT.
MOST OF THE CLDNSS OVR SRN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD THEN EXIT BY ERLY
SUN AFTN...BEFORE CLDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR WRN AND SRN PTNS OF THE
FA BY SUN EVE AHEAD OF A MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE S/WV FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LKS. IT APPEARS...THAT ANY LGT SN WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR FA
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN NGT. OTHERWISE...AFT CHILLY MORN LOWS...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N...TEMPS SHOULD THEN RECOVER TO SIMILAR HI TEMPS SUN
AS THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STEADIEST SNOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA WHERE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LESSER SNOWS WILL
OCCUR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS THE FIRST LOW IS EITHER IN THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO OR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF GEORGIA. THE SECOND
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE SRN LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP
THE EAST COAST. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE
THUR AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND GEM THOUGH THEY DO NOT SHOW A CLOSED
LOW...INDICATE THAT SOMETHING WILL BE IN THE SAME AREA AS THE
ECMWF. AT THIS TIME THE RIDGE WILL HAVE BUILD EAST OF THE
AREA...THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN
CANADA WILL BE EXTENDED NE TO SW ACROSS QUEBEC...THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO NRN IL. THUR EVNG...THE ECMWF LOW MOVES
NE INTO SW NOVA SCOTIA...THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SOMETHING IN THE SAME AREA...THE TROUGH MOVES SE AND THE LOW OVER
NOVA SCOTIA AND THE TROUGH BEGIN TO INTERACT ACROSS MAINE AND NEW
BRUNSWICK. FRI MRNG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM DIFFER ON THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MOVES THE TROUGH SOUTH TO THE GULF
OF MAINE...WRAPS THE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT LOW INTO A NEW ONE
OVER BAR HARBOR...THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER LOW OVR NRN
PA...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING THE ORIGINAL LOW NOW WELL EAST OF THE
AREA ENTERING THE WRN CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GEM MAINTAINS THE
ORIGINAL LOW MOVES IT INTO THE MARITIMES...ALSO MAINTAINS THE
TROUGH ACROSS NRN MAINE...BACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO A NEW
LOW OVER LAKE HURON. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...A
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH LA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SAT EVEN THE
LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC...THE FRONT INTO WRN
MAINE...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW MOVES INTO ERN
QUEBEC...THE FRONT MOVES EAST INTO WRN NEW BRUNSWICK.
LOADED THE SUPERBLEND FOR GRIDS. OVRNGT WED THRU THURS LOADED TWO
SUPERBLEND AND 1 ECMWF FOR POPS..THIS WILL GIVE A BIT MORE WEIGHT
TO THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WITHOUT A COMPLETE
CHANGE FROM THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 20 TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 30 PERCENT
OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HRRR HAS AT TIMES
BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP LOW STRATUS ALONG AND NEAR THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER TOWARD MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND WILL
MAINTAIN A VFR FCST ATTM AT THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATER THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD FOR THE NEAR TERM. THE COMBO OF WNW OF 10
TO 15 KT...SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S AND SSTA`S IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S RESULTED IN LGT FZSPY OVR OUR WATERS TNGT INTO ERLY SUN
MORN...AFTERWHICH WINDS DROP ENOUGH FOR FZSPY TO NO LONGER BE AN
ISSUE LATE SUN MORN ONWARD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF OPNL/MOS MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR WINDS...AND WENT ABOUT A HLF FOOT HIGHER THAN WW3 WV
GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...CB/VJN/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1024 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A COLD...WESTERLY
FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...BINOVC HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION. H5 SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER LK ERIE WILL MOVE INTO WRN NY
SHORTLY BRINGING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO
CNTRL/NRN PTN OF FA OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SLIGHTLY OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
JUST MINOR ADJ.
640 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NRN PA BUT SFC OBS INDICATE JUST MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
PASSING FLURRY AT WILLIAMSPORT PA AND WELLSVILLE NY. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THE ACTIVITY WEAKENING FURTHER. UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE
OVER SRN MI APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJ TO POPS/TEMPS.
230 PM UPDATE... 1029 MB SFC HIPRES LOCATED ACRS OH VLY WITH VRY
WEAK SFC LOW DOWN ACRS WRN NC WITH INVERTED TROF AXIS EXTENDING UP
NR THE MASON-DIXON LINE BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO VA AND WV. MODELS
SUGGESTING THIS CONVERGENCE LINE NOSES NORTH THIS EVNG POSSIBLY
BRINGING LGT FLURRIES TO SW AREAS EARLY ON.
MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE WV APPCHG FM IOWA TONIGHT AND WHAT AFFECT,
IF ANY, THIS WL HV ON FA. IF S/WV MAINTAINS CURRENT SPEED, EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO MV INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA BFR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSED WITH LIFT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON 270K LYR PER 12Z NAM FOR SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVR ERN IOWA IS SHOWING SOME LIFT IN MOISTURE AREA WHERE
SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING AND FOLLOWING THIS AREA EASTWARD TWD NY
STATE OVERNIGHT IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF NEUTRAL LIFT AND/OR
DOWNGLIDE AS WV HEADS INTO WRN NY AT 06Z. THUS, DO THINK THAT THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS WRN ZONES TONIGHT WITH
JUST FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. IN THESE AREAS, EXPECT JUST UNDER 1/2 INCH
ACCUMS.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLD CVR EXPECTED TONIGHT, ONLY EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
DROP DOWN TWD 10F BY MRNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
ANOTHER WV WL ZIP THRU THE UPR MIDWEST TOMORROW MRNG SPREADING LGT
SNOW INTO THE CWA BY AFTN. THIS WV IS CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS IT HEADS EAST, POPS WL INCREASE AFTER 16Z
WITH CATEGORICAL EXPECTED DRG THE AFTN HRS. EXPECT ARND 1 INCH OF
SNOW TOMORROW AFTN, MAINLY WEST OF I-81 CORRIDOR PROCEEDING EAST FM
THERE.
WV WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACRS CWA TOMORROW NGT WITH SNOW EXITING MOST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NW FLOW KICKS IN BHND WITH H8 TEMPS APPCHG -18C AND
INVERSION HGTS INCRS TO NR 750MB EXPECT GOOD BAND OF LK EFFECT SNOW
TO GET GOING BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY ON 290 FLOW. MAX OMEGA IS
PROGGED TO BE IN DENDRITE ZONE WITH BTWN 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE THRU
THIS TIME.
LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY MON WITH FLOW BTWN
280-290 DRG THE DAY, KEYING IN ON SYRACUSE AREA AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW TO FALL BTWN 12Z AND 18Z THEN
BCMG SCATTERED DUE TO DIURNAL HTG AFT THIS TIME. LK EFFECT WL
CONTINUE THRU 18Z TUE BFR HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA, SHIFTING FLOW
ARND TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING IN SHORT FETCH ACRS LK ONTARIO,
RESULTING IN DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST WITH WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN WITH
LOWS REACHING AS FAR AS NEGATIVE TEN BELOW. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ISSUED ATTM.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DECIDED TO
GO CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AS THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES IN THE EXTENDED. BUT THE MAIN PICTURE OF THE
EXTENDED IS THAT ANOTHER UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA LATE TUES/WEDNESDAY AND START TO PUSH THE SFC RIDGE
EAST AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND A SFC LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE CAST WED NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURS MORNING. IF THIS
OCCURS THE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE GFS
SHOWS THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHICH WILL PREVENT THE SFC
LOW FROM IMPACTING THE CWA.
THE FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST THE MORE MESSY THE FORECAST BECOMES.
THE GFS BRINGS A SYSTEM THROUGH OUR CWA THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW... HOWEVER THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH
A DAY LATER AND POSSIBLY RAIN/SNOW MIX. THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM
THIS COMING WEEKEND... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTS OR TIMING
SO JUST KEPT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE, SO IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH COVERAGE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS LOGIC IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR REF PROGS, WHICH SHOWS
VERY WEAK RETURNS IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
A BETTER LOOKING WAVE REACHES THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MID AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL. TEMPO IFR VISIBILITY IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z AS
COVERAGE MAXIMIZES UNDER BETTER UL SUPPORT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY SUNDAY DECREASING TO MVFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN OCCASIONAL LGT SNOW.
MON/TUE...MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE FOR THE CNY TERMINALS...IN LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SHWRS. VFR KAVP.
WED/THURS...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
644 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A COLD...WESTERLY
FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NRN PA BUT SFC OBS INDICATE JUST MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
PASSING FLURRY AT WILLIAMSPORT PA AND WELLSVILLE NY. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THE ACTIVITY WEAKENING FURTHER. UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE
OVER SRN MI APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJ TO POPS/TEMPS.
230 PM UPDATE... 1029 MB SFC HIPRES LOCATED ACRS OH VLY WITH VRY
WEAK SFC LOW DOWN ACRS WRN NC WITH INVERTED TROF AXIS EXTENDING UP
NR THE MASON-DIXON LINE BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO VA AND WV. MODELS
SUGGESTING THIS CONVERGENCE LINE NOSES NORTH THIS EVNG POSSIBLY
BRINGING LGT FLURRIES TO SW AREAS EARLY ON.
MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE WV APPCHG FM IOWA TONIGHT AND WHAT AFFECT,
IF ANY, THIS WL HV ON FA. IF S/WV MAINTAINS CURRENT SPEED, EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO MV INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA BFR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSED WITH LIFT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON 270K LYR PER 12Z NAM FOR SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVR ERN IOWA IS SHOWING SOME LIFT IN MOISTURE AREA WHERE
SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING AND FOLLOWING THIS AREA EASTWARD TWD NY
STATE OVERNIGHT IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF NEUTRAL LIFT AND/OR
DOWNGLIDE AS WV HEADS INTO WRN NY AT 06Z. THUS, DO THINK THAT THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS WRN ZONES TONIGHT WITH
JUST FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. IN THESE AREAS, EXPECT JUST UNDER 1/2 INCH
ACCUMS.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLD CVR EXPECTED TONIGHT, ONLY EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
DROP DOWN TWD 10F BY MRNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
ANOTHER WV WL ZIP THRU THE UPR MIDWEST TOMORROW MRNG SPREADING LGT
SNOW INTO THE CWA BY AFTN. THIS WV IS CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS IT HEADS EAST, POPS WL INCREASE AFTER 16Z
WITH CATEGORICAL EXPECTED DRG THE AFTN HRS. EXPECT ARND 1 INCH OF
SNOW TOMORROW AFTN, MAINLY WEST OF I-81 CORRIDOR PROCEEDING EAST FM
THERE.
WV WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACRS CWA TOMORROW NGT WITH SNOW EXITING MOST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NW FLOW KICKS IN BHND WITH H8 TEMPS APPCHG -18C AND
INVERSION HGTS INCRS TO NR 750MB EXPECT GOOD BAND OF LK EFFECT SNOW
TO GET GOING BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY ON 290 FLOW. MAX OMEGA IS
PROGGED TO BE IN DENDRITE ZONE WITH BTWN 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE THRU
THIS TIME.
LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY MON WITH FLOW BTWN
280-290 DRG THE DAY, KEYING IN ON SYRACUSE AREA AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW TO FALL BTWN 12Z AND 18Z THEN
BCMG SCATTERED DUE TO DIURNAL HTG AFT THIS TIME. LK EFFECT WL
CONTINUE THRU 18Z TUE BFR HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA, SHIFTING FLOW
ARND TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING IN SHORT FETCH ACRS LK ONTARIO,
RESULTING IN DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST WITH WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN WITH
LOWS REACHING AS FAR AS NEGATIVE TEN BELOW. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ISSUED ATTM.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DECIDED TO
GO CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AS THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES IN THE EXTENDED. BUT THE MAIN PICTURE OF THE
EXTENDED IS THAT ANOTHER UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA LATE TUES/WEDNESDAY AND START TO PUSH THE SFC RIDGE
EAST AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND A SFC LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE CAST WED NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURS MORNING. IF THIS
OCCURS THE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE GFS
SHOWS THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHICH WILL PREVENT THE SFC
LOW FROM IMPACTING THE CWA.
THE FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST THE MORE MESSY THE FORECAST BECOMES.
THE GFS BRINGS A SYSTEM THROUGH OUR CWA THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW... HOWEVER THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH
A DAY LATER AND POSSIBLY RAIN/SNOW MIX. THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM
THIS COMING WEEKEND... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTS OR TIMING
SO JUST KEPT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE, SO IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH COVERAGE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS LOGIC IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR REF PROGS, WHICH SHOWS
VERY WEAK RETURNS IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
A BETTER LOOKING WAVE REACHES THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MID AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL. TEMPO IFR VISIBILITY IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z AS
COVERAGE MAXIMIZES UNDER BETTER UL SUPPORT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY SUNDAY DECREASING TO MVFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN OCCASIONAL LGT SNOW.
MON/TUE...MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE FOR THE CNY TERMINALS...IN LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SHWRS. VFR KAVP.
WED/THURS...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
617 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A COLD...WESTERLY
FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
1029 MB SFC HIPRES LOCATED ACRS OH VLY WITH VRY WEAK SFC LOW DOWN
ACRS WRN NC WITH INVERTED TROF AXIS EXTENDING UP NR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO VA AND WV. MODELS SUGGESTING THIS
CONVERGENCE LINE NOSES NORTH THIS EVNG POSSIBLY BRINGING LGT
FLURRIES TO SW AREAS EARLY ON.
MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE WV APPCHG FM IOWA TONIGHT AND WHAT AFFECT,
IF ANY, THIS WL HV ON FA. IF S/WV MAINTAINS CURRENT SPEED, EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO MV INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA BFR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSED WITH LIFT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON 270K LYR PER 12Z NAM FOR SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVR ERN IOWA IS SHOWING SOME LIFT IN MOISTURE AREA WHERE
SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING AND FOLLOWING THIS AREA EASTWARD TWD NY
STATE OVERNIGHT IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF NEUTRAL LIFT AND/OR
DOWNGLIDE AS WV HEADS INTO WRN NY AT 06Z. THUS, DO THINK THAT THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS WRN ZONES TONIGHT WITH
JUST FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. IN THESE AREAS, EXPECT JUST UNDER 1/2 INCH
ACCUMS.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLD CVR EXPECTED TONIGHT, ONLY EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
DROP DOWN TWD 10F BY MRNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
ANOTHER WV WL ZIP THRU THE UPR MIDWEST TOMORROW MRNG SPREADING LGT
SNOW INTO THE CWA BY AFTN. THIS WV IS CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS IT HEADS EAST, POPS WL INCREASE AFTER 16Z
WITH CATEGORICAL EXPECTED DRG THE AFTN HRS. EXPECT ARND 1 INCH OF
SNOW TOMORROW AFTN, MAINLY WEST OF I-81 CORRIDOR PROCEEDING EAST FM
THERE.
WV WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACRS CWA TOMORROW NGT WITH SNOW EXITING MOST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NW FLOW KICKS IN BHND WITH H8 TEMPS APPCHG -18C AND
INVERSION HGTS INCRS TO NR 750MB EXPECT GOOD BAND OF LK EFFECT SNOW
TO GET GOING BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY ON 290 FLOW. MAX OMEGA IS
PROGGED TO BE IN DENDRITE ZONE WITH BTWN 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE THRU
THIS TIME.
LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY MON WITH FLOW BTWN
280-290 DRG THE DAY, KEYING IN ON SYRACUSE AREA AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW TO FALL BTWN 12Z AND 18Z THEN
BCMG SCATTERED DUE TO DIURNAL HTG AFT THIS TIME. LK EFFECT WL
CONTINUE THRU 18Z TUE BFR HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA, SHIFTING FLOW
ARND TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING IN SHORT FETCH ACRS LK ONTARIO,
RESULTING IN DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST WITH WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN WITH
LOWS REACHING AS FAR AS NEGATIVE TEN BELOW. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ISSUED ATTM.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DECIDED TO
GO CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AS THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES IN THE EXTENDED. BUT THE MAIN PICTURE OF THE
EXTENDED IS THAT ANOTHER UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA LATE TUES/WEDNESDAY AND START TO PUSH THE SFC RIDGE
EAST AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND A SFC LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE CAST WED NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURS MORNING. IF THIS
OCCURS THE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE GFS
SHOWS THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHICH WILL PREVENT THE SFC
LOW FROM IMPACTING THE CWA.
THE FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST THE MORE MESSY THE FORECAST BECOMES.
THE GFS BRINGS A SYSTEM THROUGH OUR CWA THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW... HOWEVER THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH
A DAY LATER AND POSSIBLY RAIN/SNOW MIX. THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM
THIS COMING WEEKEND... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTS OR TIMING
SO JUST KEPT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE, SO IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH COVERAGE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS LOGIC IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR REF PROGS, WHICH SHOWS
VERY WEAK RETURNS IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
A BETTER LOOKING WAVE REACHES THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MID AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL. TEMPO IFR VISIBILITY IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z AS
COVERAGE MAXIMIZES UNDER BETTER UL SUPPORT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY SUNDAY DECREASING TO MVFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN OCCASIONAL LGT SNOW.
MON/TUE...MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE FOR THE CNY TERMINALS...IN LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SHWRS. VFR KAVP.
WED/THURS...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PORTLAND OR
634 PM PST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE. LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS RAIN IN THE SOUTH...A MIX FARTHER NORTH AND SNOW OR A MIX
IN THE GORGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE
RAIN FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM EAST COUNTY AND THE GORGE WHERE SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN HANG ON. ONSHORE FLOW AND A CONSOLIDATED PACIFIC
JET WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
OCCASIONAL WINDY PERIODS.
&&
UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN EARLY
THIS EVENING AROUND THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREA AND WE
HAVE BEEN RECEIVING SPOTTER REPORTS OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AND HAVE CONVERTED THE WINTER STORM WARNING
TO AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR THE METRO AREA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GORGE AND KEEPING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DESPITE THE WARMING AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE ALSO BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND THE WILLAPA HILLS. LIKE ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH THE SNOW TONIGHT.
HARTLEY
.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... IF
YOU CAN AVOID TRAVELING THIS EVENING...IT IS IN YOUR BEST INTEREST
TO DO SO. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS INCREASING. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ICE GLAZES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. AREAS NEAR THE GORGE HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
REMAINING SNOW/SLEET.
THE WARM NOSE IS PUSHING ITS WAY UP THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION SOUTH OF
PORTLAND METRO...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN
TO PORTLAND AS WELL NOW. HEAR AT THE OFFICE BETWEEN THE PDX AIRPORT
AND TROUTDALE WITH MORE OF A GORGE INFLUENCE...WE ARE BOUNCING
BETWEEN SNOW AND SLEET. THE WARM NOSE IS NOT EVIDENT ON THE KPTV
TOWER TEMPS SUCH YET AS THE LOWEST LEVELS ARE A BIT COLDER...BUT HAS
REALLY BEEN CENTERED BETWEEN 925 AND 850 MB...SO BETWEEN 2500 AND
3500 FEET. MEANWHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM TTD TO DLS HAS
INCREASED TO A WHOPPING 10.8 MB...REINFORCING THAT FEED OF COLDER LOW
LEVEL AIR. THERE IS STILL A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT FROM PORTLAND TO
EUGENE THUS SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE NOT WARMED AND
CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT EVEN IN THIS AREA.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE OREGON COAST. IT IS AMAZING THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS IN PLACE. NORTH BEND IS 57 WITH A DEWPOINT OF
55...ROSEBURG IS 56 WITH A DEWPOINT OF 48. MEANWHILE IT IS 30 OVER 28
AT EUGENE. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...EXPECT A SOUTH GRADIENT
TO TAKE HOLD IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND END THE FREEZING RAIN
AND ICE THREAT FOR THESE AREAS. TOWARDS SALEM SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR DOES NOT GET ERODED...WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL
OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE. FOR THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA...HAVE TO NOW FOLLOW THE RAP FOR THE SITUATION
THAT WOULD SUGGEST THIS WARM NOSE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME ICE COATING POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE METRO AREA THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD ICING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR KEEPING A DEEP LOWER
LAYER...BUT LIGHT GLAZING ON TOP THE SNOW TODAY WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. THAT BEING SAID...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INLAND ADDITIONAL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL MEAN THE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS MAY MEAN ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE MESSAGE FROM EARLIER STILL HOLDS...IF
YOU CAN AVOID TRAVELING THIS EVENING...IT IS IN YOUR SAFETY TO DO
JUST THAT.
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE OFF THE COAST AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN MUCH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION EXCEPT IN THE CASCADES. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND WE GET IN ON LIGHTER DEFORMATION PRECIP WITH
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY GRAZING THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM
EUGENE NORTH TO SALEM LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN...FROM ABOUT SALEM
NORTH IT LOOKS LIKE THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT STILL EXISTS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THEN RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. THE COLD AIR HANGS ON IN THE NORTH TO THE PORTLAND METRO
AREA. PRECIP RATES DO LOOK LIGHTER.
THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED WAVE COMES IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. MOST AREAS AWAY FROM EAST COUNTY AND THE GORGE SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH OF AN SOUTH GRADIENT BY THIS TIME TO CONVERT TO RAIN. MORE
SOLID PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE PORTLAND
AND TROUTDALE COULD BE RAIN OR POSSIBLY STILL FREEZING RAIN. THE
GORGE REMAINS FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW INTO THIS SYSTEM. /KMD
.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST ALL AREAS WILL BE MILDER
BY MON AM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WITH COLD
AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...SUB FREEZING AIR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE GORGE. THIS KEEP AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON...MILDER AIR WILL FINALLY REACH THOSE AREAS...WITH GRADUAL
WARM UP. PORTIONS OF THE PORTLAND-VANCOUVER METRO AREA...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE GORGE MAY STILL SEE SOME WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN. FORTUNATELY THERE AREAS SHOULD BE IN
A PCPN LULL AT THAT TIME SO ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ALL INDICATE A MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WET PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING RAIN...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES. WITH SUCH A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MODELS WILL LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY TIMING THE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES.WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT TIMING OF THE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES PASSING ACROSS REGION ON TUE/WED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT ON THU AND AGAIN SAT. THESE WILL BRING FAIRLY DECENT
ROUND OF RAIN. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF PCPN WITH
THE LOWLAND RECEIVING AN INCH OR TWO IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. SNOW
LEVELS LIKELY VARY BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. IT LOOKS GOOD FOR
BUILDING THE SNOWPACK IN THE CASCADES./MH
&&
.UPDATED AVIATION...PRECIPITATION HAS SWITCHED OVER TO FREEZING RAIN
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
FAIRLY HEAVILY THROUGH 06Z OR 07Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MORE
HIGH-END MVFR TO LOW-END VFR OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED AND ICING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A WARM NOSE ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY IN WHILE
SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER 06Z. IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY...THE SWITCHOVER
TO RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SOMETIME DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
EXPECT ALL RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FOR MOST OF THE
METRO AREA. EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE FALLING AT A MODERATE RATE THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS OF HIGH END MVFR OR LOW
END VFR. EXPECT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN MORNING. KTTD- KDLS GRADIENT HAS SPIKED TO NEARLY -11 MB AT 22Z
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST. EXPECT
EAST WIND 20G30KT AT THE TERMINAL AND GUSTS 30-40KT AT KTTD FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW ABOUT 100 NM WEST OF FLORENCE AT
21Z CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACK E-NE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
PROLONGED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND OVER THE NRN WATERS AND
INCREASED WIND OVER THE SRN WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND OVER THE NRN WATERS THROUGH 06Z SUN
AND PUT UP AN ADVISORY FOR THE SRN WATERS THROUGH 03Z. MODELS SHOW
THE LOW MAKING LANDFALL AROUND 03Z SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NEWPORT AND
JUST S OF TILLAMOOK. WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR INCREASING SOUTH WIND
OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS SHOWS 20-25
KT S-SW WIND ACROSS THE FAR SRN WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WIND IS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...FOLLOWED BY AN
EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM TUE NIGHT AND WED THAT COULD PRODUCE GALES.
SEAS RUNNING A COUPLE FEET HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. BUOY
REPORTS AT 22Z SHOWING 6-7 FT...DESPITE THE EAST WIND. HAVE
NUDGED SEAS UP A FOOT OR SO TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR SQUARE-SEAS...SUCH AS 8 FT AT 8 SECONDS...RESULTING IN STEEP
WAVES REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SWELL THROUGH MON NIGHT
WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SHORT PERIOD FRESH SWELL FROM THE S TO SW.
LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS BUILDING TO THE MID TEENS NEXT
TUE. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE
COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE
FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR GREATER PORTLAND
METRO AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR LOWER
COLUMBIA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
OREGON COAST.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR GREATER VANCOUVER
AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR I-5 CORRIDOR
IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
409 PM PST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE. LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS RAIN IN THE SOUTH...A MIX FARTHER NORTH AND SNOW OR A MIX
IN THE GORGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE
RAIN FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM EAST COUNTY AND THE GORGE WHERE SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN HANG ON. ONSHORE FLOW AND A CONSOLIDATED PACIFIC
JET WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
OCCASIONAL WINDY PERIODS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
IF YOU CAN AVOID TRAVELING THIS EVENING...IT IS IN YOUR BEST INTEREST
TO DO SO. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS INCREASING. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ICE GLAZES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. AREAS NEAR THE GORGE HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
REMAINING SNOW/SLEET.
THE WARM NOSE IS PUSHING ITS WAY UP THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION SOUTH OF
PORTLAND METRO...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN
TO PORTLAND AS WELL NOW. HEAR AT THE OFFICE BETWEEN THE PDX AIRPORT
AND TROUTDALE WITH MORE OF A GORGE INFLUENCE...WE ARE BOUNCING
BETWEEN SNOW AND SLEET. THE WARM NOSE IS NOT EVIDENT ON THE KPTV
TOWER TEMPS SUCH YET AS THE LOWEST LEVELS ARE A BIT COLDER...BUT HAS
REALLY BEEN CENTERED BETWEEN 925 AND 850 MB...SO BETWEEN 2500 AND
3500 FEET. MEANWHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM TTD TO DLS HAS
INCREASED TO A WHOPPING 10.8 MB...REINFORCING THAT FEED OF COLDER LOW
LEVEL AIR. THERE IS STILL A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT FROM PORTLAND TO
EUGENE THUS SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE NOT WARMED AND
CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT EVEN IN THIS AREA.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE OREGON COAST. IT IS AMAZING THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS IN PLACE. NORTH BEND IS 57 WITH A DEWPOINT OF
55...ROSEBURG IS 56 WITH A DEWPOINT OF 48. MEANWHILE IT IS 30 OVER 28
AT EUGENE. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...EXPECT A SOUTH GRADIENT
TO TAKE HOLD IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND END THE FREEZING RAIN
AND ICE THREAT FOR THESE AREAS. TOWARDS SALEM SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR DOES NOT GET ERODED...WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL
OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE. FOR THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA...HAVE TO NOW FOLLOW THE RAP FOR THE SITUATION
THAT WOULD SUGGEST THIS WARM NOSE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME ICE COATING POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE METRO AREA THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD ICING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR KEEPING A DEEP LOWER
LAYER...BUT LIGHT GLAZING ON TOP THE SNOW TODAY WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. THAT BEING SAID...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INLAND ADDITIONAL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL MEAN THE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS MAY MEAN ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE MESSAGE FROM EARLIER STILL HOLDS...IF
YOU CAN AVOID TRAVELING THIS EVENING...IT IS IN YOUR SAFETY TO DO
JUST THAT.
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE OFF THE COAST AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN MUCH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION EXCEPT IN THE CASCADES. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND WE GET IN ON LIGHTER DEFORMATION PRECIP WITH
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY GRAZING THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM
EUGENE NORTH TO SALEM LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN...FROM ABOUT SALEM
NORTH IT LOOKS LIKE THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT STILL EXISTS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THEN RAIN WILL START TO MIX IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. THE COLD AIR HANGS ON IN THE NORTH TO THE PORTLAND METRO
AREA. PRECIP RATES DO LOOK LIGHTER.
THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED WAVE COMES IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. MOST AREAS AWAY FROM EAST COUNTY AND THE GORGE SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH OF AN SOUTH GRADIENT BY THIS TIME TO CONVERT TO RAIN. MORE
SOLID PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE PORTLAND
AND TROUTDALE COULD BE RAIN OR POSSIBLY STILL FREEZING RAIN. THE
GORGE REMAINS FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW INTO THIS SYSTEM. /KMD
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST ALL AREAS WILL BE MILDER BY MON
AM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR STILL
LOCKED IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...SUB FREEZING AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE GORGE. THIS KEEP AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE GORGE AND UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...MILDER AIR WILL
FINALLY REACH THOSE AREAS...WITH GRADUAL WARM UP. PORTIONS OF THE
PORTLAND-VANCOUVER METRO AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GORGE MAY STILL
SEE SOME WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN. FORTUNATELY
THERE AREAS SHOULD BE IN A PCPN LULL AT THAT TIME SO ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE LIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ALL INDICATE A MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WET PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING RAIN...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES. WITH SUCH A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MODELS WILL LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY TIMING THE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES.WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT TIMING OF THE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES PASSING ACROSS REGION ON TUE/WED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT ON THU AND AGAIN SAT. THESE WILL BRING FAIRLY DECENT
ROUND OF RAIN. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF PCPN WITH
THE LOWLAND RECEIVING AN INCH OR TWO IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. SNOW
LEVELS LIKELY VARY BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. IT LOOKS GOOD FOR
BUILDING THE SNOWPACK IN THE CASCADES./MH
&&
.AVIATION...WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE MORE MVFR TO LOW-END VFR AFTER 08Z
SUN. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -FZRA IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON CASCADE
FOOTHILLS THROUGH 06Z SUN. NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SW WA
LIKELY TO BE IFR IN SNOW THROUGH 06Z SUN. PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER
06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR. ELEVATED TERRAIN
WILL BE OBSCURED AND ICING WILL BECOME MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FLIGHT ISSUE THROUGH SUN MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN PART OF
THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A COUPLE BANDS OF SNOW ON KRTX DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL AND APPROACHES THROUGH 00Z.
EXPECT MAINLY IFR TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z...THEN A MIX OF MVFR TO
LOW-END VFR THEREAFTER. PRECIP TO REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST
03Z SUN...AND POSSIBLY AS LONG AS 06Z. CHANGE TO -FZRA LIKELY
AFTER 06Z BUT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AS LATE AS 12Z. FORTUNATELY
PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT HAS
SPIKED TO NEARLY -11 MB AT 22Z AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS IT
GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST. EXPECT EAST WIND 20G30KT AT THE TERMINAL
AND GUSTS 30-40KT AT KTTD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. WEISHAAR
&&
.MARINE...A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW ABOUT 100 NM WEST OF FLORENCE AT
21Z CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACK E-NE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
PROLONGED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND OVER THE NRN WATERS AND
INCREASED WIND OVER THE SRN WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND OVER THE NRN WATERS THROUGH 06Z SUN
AND PUT UP AN ADVISORY FOR THE SRN WATERS THROUGH 03Z. MODELS SHOW
THE LOW MAKING LANDFALL AROUND 03Z SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NEWPORT AND
JUST S OF TILLAMOOK. WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR INCREASING SOUTH WIND
OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS SHOWS 20-25
KT S-SW WIND ACROSS THE FAR SRN WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WIND IS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...FOLLOWED BY AN
EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM TUE NIGHT AND WED THAT COULD PRODUCE GALES.
SEAS RUNNING A COUPLE FEET HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. BUOY
REPORTS AT 22Z SHOWING 6-7 FT...DESPITE THE EAST WIND. HAVE
NUDGED SEAS UP A FOOT OR SO TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR SQUARE-SEAS...SUCH AS 8 FT AT 8 SECONDS...RESULTING IN STEEP
WAVES REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SWELL THROUGH MON NIGHT
WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SHORT PERIOD FRESH SWELL FROM THE S TO SW.
LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS BUILDING TO THE MID TEENS NEXT
TUE. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE
COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-COAST RANGE OF
NORTHWEST OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE
FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR LOWER
COLUMBIA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
OREGON COAST.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR I-5 CORRIDOR
IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PORTLAND OR
1034 AM PST FRI FEB 7 2014
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS
.SYNOPSIS...THE SECOND SYSTEM IN A ONE-TWO-THREE PUNCH OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR NORTHWEST OREGON IS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE...AND WILL SPREAD
SNOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF OUR NORTHWEST OREGON ZONES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WITH MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AFFECTED. THE THIRD SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR AREA
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEMS IMPACTS WILL REACH. OVERALL A VERY
COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE A TURN
TOWARD MORE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN.
&&
.UPDATE...SNOW IS PROGRESING UP THE VALLEY...AND SPED UP THE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN SOONER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST. ALSO...CAMERAS IN NEWPORT SHOW LIQUID PRECIP AND TEMPS ARE
AROUND 30. EXPECT SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS...AND UP
TO A TENTH INCH HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SILETZ. FARTHER INLAND STILL
THINK SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AS THE RAWS STATIONS ARE
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THAT SAID THE RAP 925 TEMPERATURE IS
TRACKING FAIRLY WELL IF NOT A LITTLE SNOW FOR THE WARM NOSE. IF THE
RAP IS TRUE...THIS WOULD SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUING HEDGING THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION. THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST NEAR FLORENCE SHOULD BE
JUST RAIN BASED ON OBS AND CAMERAS. NOWCAST COMING OUT SOON.
/KMD
REST OF THE MORNING UPDATE UNCHAGED...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. SNOW HAS STARTED TO FALL IN EUGENE BASED ON REPORTS WITH A
FRESH COATING EARLIER AND NOW COMING DOWN HARDER. EXPECT THIS IS LOW
LEVEL FORCED AS THE UPPER FORCING IS STILL A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WHILE SNOW IS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SHOULD BE FOR A
WHILE IN THE SOUTH... AS MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM NOSE AT 925/850
STAYS SOUTH THROUGH 0Z. SO INITIAL CONCERNS FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE
TOO HIGH JUST YET. THAT SAID... CONCERNS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR
FREEZING RAIN/ICING SITUATION AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...COAST RANGE...SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND THE LOWER
VALLEYS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW A THICK DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN WARMER
SURFACE AIR AT THE COAST WHERE IT IS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AT
WALDPORT...YACHATS AND FLORENCE...MEANWHILE OFFSHORE FLOW MAINTAINS
COLDER AIR FROM NEWPORT NORTH. A SIMILIAR STORY IS THE CASE WHERE IT
IS 40 AND RAINING IN ROSEBURG AND 21 IN EUGENE. MEANWHILE...A
TELLING TALE OF WHAT TO MONITOR TODAY MAY BE THE RAWS STATIONS IN
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE. HIGH POINT AND GOODWIN PEAK ARE GOOD
ONES AT JUST UNDER 2000 FT...AND ARE LOCATED AT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
EUGENE. THESE STATIONS SIT AT AROUND 32 DEGREES WITH SIMILAR
DEWPOINT VALUES AND MAINTAIN A WEAK OR A SOUTH WIND. NOW THESE
STATIONS WERE A LITTLE WARMER LAST EVENING WHEN FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN. MEANWHILE VILLAGE CREEK AND WILKINSON RIDGE RAWS JUST A BIT
FARTHER NORTH IN THE COAST RANGE...WHICH ARE LOCATED BETWEEN EUGENE
AND CORVALLIS AND AT 1500 FT ELEVATION...SIT AT 25 AND 26. THIS IS
POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER...EVEN THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A UNIQUE SITUATION IN THAT IT IS NOT COMMON FOR
OUR AREA TO GO FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AND BACK TO SNOW...THUS THE
CONCERN...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A FIRST FOR EVERYTHING. THE MODELS
ARE ALREADY BRINING THE LOWEST LEVEL COLD AIR TOO FAST...BUT AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS IN IT LOOKS LIKE THE COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN IF THE LOW GOES.
SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH OF...BUT THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER NEAR THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND WHERE THE CURRENT DOMINATING SURFACE LOW IS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE JET ENERGY TO THE SOUTH WILL
ALLOW THE LOW MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE AND TO THE SOUTH TO DOMINATE.
WHERE THEY DIFFER IS HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR SPREADS.
THIS MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A BUNCH OF ICE FROM NEWPORT NORTH
WITH THE SECOND PUNCH COMING IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY THAT THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT IN THE VALLEY REMAINS FROM SALEM SOUTH. IF YOU BELIEVE
NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND THE RAW MOS GUIDANCE...EUGENE WILL SWITCH TO
RAIN. DONT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN. MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT
AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE
VALLEY REMAINS FROM SALEM SOUTH. THAT IS NOT A GUARANTEE AS GFS/NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS BRING THE WARM NOSE AWFULLY CLOSE...BUT THE CURRENT
FEELING RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A CHANCE THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS BRING THE WARM NOSE AWFULLY
CLOSE.
NOT TO IGNORE AREAS FARTHER NORTH...PROFILES ARE ALL SNOW,. THERE IS
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH IS MORE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED OFFSHORE BUT WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AS
THE CLASH OF THE COLD AND MILD PACIFIC AIR COMMENCES AGAIN FARTHER
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO GET GOING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN EXPECT BANDING TO OCCUR...LIKELY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. /KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...AGAIN OUR APOLOGIES FOR THE TARDINESS OF THIS
DISCUSSION... THIS SHIFT HAS BEEN VERY BUSY ON MANY FRONTS...BOTH
LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY.
FIRST THINGS FIRST...AS MOST OF US KNOW BY NOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AS MUCH AS A FOOT OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLOSE TO THAT IN THE COAST RANGE. LOW PRESSURE
TOOK THE PERFECT TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT OF MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR OCCLUDING
AS IT MOVED INTO A BURLY ARCTIC AIR MASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THIS SYSTEM HAVE ENDED IN
OUR FORECAST AREA...AS THIS SYSTEM HAS SINCE SHIFTED ITS FOCUS EAST
INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SPOKANE AREA.
THE REASON FOR THE RECAP IS THAT THIS IS ALMOST EXACTLY WHAT WILL
HAPPEN AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND WESTWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC. A VORT LOBE IS POSITIONED NEAR 47N/133W...ALMOST EXACTLY
WHERE THURSDAYS VORT LOBE WAS POSITIONED THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MSAS
ANALYSIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATE A SURFACE REFLECTION VERY NEARBY AT
ABOUT 45N/132W. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH A NARROW PLUME EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ALL THE WAY TO HAWAII. AS A RESULT MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE IMPRESSIVE
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A STRONGER SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EUGENE AREA AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FAR SW
OREGON... THIS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
VORT LOBE TEAMS UP WITH
THIS WILL BE A COMPLEX PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST...WITH COLD AIR
TRAPPED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TO SHOW THE CONTRAST...AT 5 AM THE
TEMPERATURE WAS 21 DEGREES IN EUGENE AND 40 DEGREES IN ROSEBURG.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
SO THIS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE SOON.
USING 4KM UW WRFGFS SOUNDINGS ALONE...IT WOULD SEEM ENOUGH WARM AIR
WOULD ADVECT INTO EUGENE TO PUSH THEIR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S AND
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN MORE
DRAMATIC WARMUP. HOWEVER...AS LONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY REMAIN NORTHERLY...THERE WILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT OF FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. WITH QPF INCREASING
RAPIDLY...WE FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO GO AGAINST MOST GUIDANCE AND
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OUT SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE
COMBINATION THREAT OF SNOW AND ICE. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 20S AT
NEWPORT...SO A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR THEM...AS LONG AS GRADIENTS
REMAIN OFFSHORE IT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO GIVE THEM THE ALL
CLEAR. AREAS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST...TILLAMOOK AND LINCOLN
CITY...WILL STAY SNOW LONGER THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH.
FARTHER NORTH IT IS PERHAPS A BIT EASIER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
COLD AIR IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...AND ALTHOUGH EASTERLY GRADIENTS HAVE
RELAXED THROUGH THE GORGE...THEY WILL RAMP UP AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE PROVERBIAL
FREEZER DOOR OPEN...REPLENESHING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WITH COLD AIR. THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL IS DEEP...PROBABLY ABOUT
4000-6000FT DEEP...SO ANY WARM NOSE TRYING TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO
PORTLAND WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING ANY TEMPERATURES IN
THE COLUMN ABOVE FREEZING. IN FACT...MILDER PACIFIC AIR PUSHING INTO
THE PORTLAND METRO WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS
A SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN MOIST AND MILD PACIFIC AIR AND THE
ARCTIC AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CREATE LIFT AND ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION...THE 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW THIS PRETTY WELL...WHICH THEY
DID WITH YESTERDAYS SYSTEM.
A LOT OF WORDS TO SIMPLY SAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT
TODAY TO THE ONE THAT PLAYED OUT THURSDAY. OVERALL TIMING WILL BE A
FEW HOURS LATER...AND THE TIMING OF THE WARNINGS REFLECT THIS. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE WARMER AIR HAVING
A LITTLE MORE SUCCESS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES ONSHORE.
ANOTHER SIMILAR WAVE IS ON TAP FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THOUGH WITH FAST FLOW AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN THE NE PACIFIC
CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING IS LOW. 06Z GFS/NAM PAINT A SIMILAR
STRIPE OF QPF ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE MOUNTAINS ARE NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...OVERALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE
CASCADES WILL SEE A MUCH-NEEDED BOOST TO THEIR SNOWPACK. THE UW
WRF-GFS...NAM...GEM...GFS...ALL HAVE SNOW MEASURED IN FEET FOR THEM
OVER THE COMING DAYS. AFTER A LONG WAIT...IT APPEARS THE HOPES FOR
SNOW IN THE CASCADES ARE FINALLY COMING TO FRUITION. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REGION BEGINS TO SIT
SQUARE UNDER THE STORM TRACK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. BROAD LOW PRESSURE
WILL SET UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED JUST
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES TO PROGRESS ALONG JET STREAM AND BRING MORE FREQUENT PERIODS
OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AND FEWER PERIOD OF DRY PERIODS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5500
FEET DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PASSING SHORT WAVES PUSH LEADING WARMER
AIR SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. OVERALL...THIS APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
PATTERN FOR PRODUCING SNOW PACKS HIGHER IN THE CASCADES AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW FREEZING. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES. PRECIP NOW
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...MID-DAY TUESDAY/
TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN THURSDAY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELED QPF AMOUNTS VARY...NOT SURPRISINGLY...BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE PACNW
WILL BE IN THE CROSS HAIRS OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED. THUS DO NOT
FEEL OVERLY COMFORTABLE REGARDING THE NATURE OF ANY ONE SPECIFIC
SYSTEM. FORTUNATELY...THERE DO APPEAR TO BE AROUND 12 HOUR BREAKS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. /JBONK
&&
.AVIATION...NEXT ROUND OF SNOW HAS PROGRESSED INLAND ABOUT TO REACH
AS FAR NORTH AS KSLE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS BAND DRIFT NORTH
REACHING KHIO...KPDX...AND KTTD BY 20Z IF NOT A BIT SOONER AND KAST
AN HOUR OR SO LATER. THIS IS ALL FASTER THAN MODELS HAVE INDICATED
AND HAVE ADAPTED TAFS TO MATCH. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE PROBABLE
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE
TRANSITION AT KONP. MODERATE SNOW AT KEUG WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY
WITH THE BEST GUESS OCCURRING AT 22Z AND AT KSLE AT 23Z. EXPECT TO
SEE A TENTH OR TWO OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF THE ONGOING SNOW.
DEEPER EAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH CASCADES SHOULD LIMIT THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FREEZING RAIN DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRST GUESS TODAY MAY SEE KHIO KTTD AND KPDX CHANGE TO FZRA AROUND
09/03 Z SATURDAY EVENING BUT IT APPEARS THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD
END BY THEN. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING ICE IS STILL LIKELY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH THE FIELD
AROUND 20Z AS TODAY`S PRECIP BAND DRIFTS NORTHWARD. PEAK SNOW WILL
INTENSIFY BEGINNING CLOSER TO 00Z WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED 08/00 TO 08/03Z. ALSO EXPECT BLSN TO OBSCURE NEAR SURFACE
VSBY AT THAT TIME. CONTINUE TO EXPECT AROUND 3 INCHES OF TOTAL
ACCUMULATION BY LATER EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE SHOWERY. CURRENT THOUGHTS BRING FIRST FZRA POSSIBILITY
TO KPDX AROUND 09/03Z.
&&
.MARINE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NE PAC...WITH HIGH PRES WILL
INLAND. GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS STRONGER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS ARE GUSTING 20 TO
25 KT OVER THE N WATERS AT BUOY 29 AND WILL APPEAR TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
COVER. NEAR SHORE WINDS ARE NOT SUPPORTING AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH COLDER DENSER AIR KEEPING THE WINDS OFF THE COAST RANGE
ELEVATED UNTIL FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING RAIN IS
OCCURRING NEAR NEWPORT AND WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD UP THE COAST
TODAY...PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR AS KAST BUT MORE LIKELY SEASIDE
AND SOUTH. COULD PICK UP A TENTH OR TWO OF ICE ACCUMULATION. SEAS
HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 25
TO 40 KT TUES...WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 10 FT. /JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER PORTLAND
METRO AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CASCADE
FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN
OREGON-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CASCADES IN
LANE COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
COAST.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER
AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
1010 AM PST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE SECOND SYSTEM IN A ONE-TWO-THREE PUNCH OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR NORTHWEST OREGON IS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE...AND WILL SPREAD
SNOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF OUR NORTHWEST OREGON ZONES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WITH MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AFFECTED. THE THIRD SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR AREA
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEMS IMPACTS WILL REACH. OVERALL A VERY
COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE A TURN
TOWARD MORE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN.
&&
.UPDATE...SNOW IS PROGRESING UP THE VALLEY...AND SPED UP THE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN SOONER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST. ALSO...CAMERAS IN NEWPORT SHOW LIQUID PRECIP AND TEMPS ARE
AROUND 30.EXPECT SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS...AND UP
TO A TENTH INCH HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SILETZ. FARTHER INLAND STILL
THINK SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AS THE RAWS STATIONS ARE
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THAT SAID THE RAP 925 TEMPERATURE IS
TRACKING FAIRLY WELL IF NOT A LITTLE SNOW FOR THE WARM NOSE. IF THE
RAP IS TRUE...THIS WOULD SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUING HEDGING THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION. THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST NEAR FLORENCE SHOULD BE
JUST RAIN BASED ON OBS AND CAMERAS. NOWCAST COMING OUT SOON.
/KMD
REST OF THE MORNING UPDATE UNCHAGED...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. SNOW HAS STARTED TO FALL IN EUGENE BASED ON REPORTS WITH A
FRESH COATING EARLIER AND NOW COMING DOWN HARDER. EXPECT THIS IS LOW
LEVEL FORCED AS THE UPPER FORCING IS STILL A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WHILE SNOW IS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SHOULD BE FOR A
WHILE IN THE SOUTH... AS MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM NOSE AT 925/850
STAYS SOUTH THROUGH 0Z. SO INITIAL CONCERNS FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE
TOO HIGH JUST YET. THAT SAID... CONCERNS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR
FREEZING RAIN/ICING SITUATION AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...COAST RANGE...SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND THE LOWER
VALLEYS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW A THICK DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN WARMER
SURFACE AIR AT THE COAST WHERE IT IS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AT
WALDPORT...YACHATS AND FLORENCE...MEANWHILE OFFSHORE FLOW MAINTAINS
COLDER AIR FROM NEWPORT NORTH. A SIMILIAR STORY IS THE CASE WHERE IT
IS 40 AND RAINING IN ROSEBURG AND 21 IN EUGENE. MEANWHILE...A
TELLING TALE OF WHAT TO MONITOR TODAY MAY BE THE RAWS STATIONS IN
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE. HIGH POINT AND GOODWIN PEAK ARE GOOD
ONES AT JUST UNDER 2000 FT...AND ARE LOCATED AT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
EUGENE. THESE STATIONS SIT AT AROUND 32 DEGREES WITH SIMILAR
DEWPOINT VALUES AND MAINTAIN A WEAK OR A SOUTH WIND. NOW THESE
STATIONS WERE A LITTLE WARMER LAST EVENING WHEN FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN. MEANWHILE VILLAGE CREEK AND WILKINSON RIDGE RAWS JUST A BIT
FARTHER NORTH IN THE COAST RANGE...WHICH ARE LOCATED BETWEEN EUGENE
AND CORVALLIS AND AT 1500 FT ELEVATION...SIT AT 25 AND 26. THIS IS
POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER...EVEN THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A UNIQUE SITUATION IN THAT IT IS NOT COMMON FOR
OUR AREA TO GO FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AND BACK TO SNOW...THUS THE
CONCERN...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A FIRST FOR EVERYTHING. THE MODELS
ARE ALREADY BRINING THE LOWEST LEVEL COLD AIR TOO FAST...BUT AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS IN IT LOOKS LIKE THE COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN IF THE LOW GOES.
SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH OF...BUT THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER NEAR THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND WHERE THE CURRENT DOMINATING SURFACE LOW IS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE JET ENERGY TO THE SOUTH WILL
ALLOW THE LOW MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE AND TO THE SOUTH TO DOMINATE.
WHERE THEY DIFFER IS HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR SPREADS.
THIS MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A BUNCH OF ICE FROM NEWPORT NORTH
WITH THE SECOND PUNCH COMING IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY THAT THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT IN THE VALLEY REMAINS FROM SALEM SOUTH. IF YOU BELIEVE
NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND THE RAW MOS GUIDANCE...EUGENE WILL SWITCH TO
RAIN. DONT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN. MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT
AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE
VALLEY REMAINS FROM SALEM SOUTH. THAT IS NOT A GUARANTEE AS GFS/NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS BRING THE WARM NOSE AWFULLY CLOSE...BUT THE CURRENT
FEELING RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A CHANCE THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS BRING THE WARM NOSE AWFULLY
CLOSE.
NOT TO IGNORE AREAS FARTHER NORTH...PROFILES ARE ALL SNOW,. THERE IS
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH IS MORE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED OFFSHORE BUT WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AS
THE CLASH OF THE COLD AND MILD PACIFIC AIR COMMENCES AGAIN FARTHER
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO GET GOING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN EXPECT BANDING TO OCCUR...LIKELY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING.
AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION TO BE UPDATED WITH THE TAF
PACKAGE. /KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...AGAIN OUR APOLOGIES FOR THE TARDINESS OF THIS
DISCUSSION... THIS SHIFT HAS BEEN VERY BUSY ON MANY FRONTS...BOTH
LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY.
FIRST THINGS FIRST...AS MOST OF US KNOW BY NOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AS MUCH AS A FOOT OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLOSE TO THAT IN THE COAST RANGE. LOW PRESSURE
TOOK THE PERFECT TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT OF MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR OCCLUDING
AS IT MOVED INTO A BURLY ARCTIC AIR MASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THIS SYSTEM HAVE ENDED IN
OUR FORECAST AREA...AS THIS SYSTEM HAS SINCE SHIFTED ITS FOCUS EAST
INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SPOKANE AREA.
THE REASON FOR THE RECAP IS THAT THIS IS ALMOST EXACTLY WHAT WILL
HAPPEN AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND WESTWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC. A VORT LOBE IS POSITIONED NEAR 47N/133W...ALMOST EXACTLY
WHERE THURSDAYS VORT LOBE WAS POSITIONED THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MSAS
ANALYSIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATE A SURFACE REFLECTION VERY NEARBY AT
ABOUT 45N/132W. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH A NARROW PLUME EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ALL THE WAY TO HAWAII. AS A RESULT MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE IMPRESSIVE
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A STRONGER SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EUGENE AREA AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FAR SW
OREGON... THIS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
VORT LOBE TEAMS UP WITH
THIS WILL BE A COMPLEX PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST...WITH COLD AIR
TRAPPED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TO SHOW THE CONTRAST...AT 5 AM THE
TEMPERATURE WAS 21 DEGREES IN EUGENE AND 40 DEGREES IN ROSEBURG.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
SO THIS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE SOON.
USING 4KM UW WRFGFS SOUNDINGS ALONE...IT WOULD SEEM ENOUGH WARM AIR
WOULD ADVECT INTO EUGENE TO PUSH THEIR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S AND
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN MORE
DRAMATIC WARMUP. HOWEVER...AS LONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY REMAIN NORTHERLY...THERE WILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT OF FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. WITH QPF INCREASING
RAPIDLY...WE FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO GO AGAINST MOST GUIDANCE AND
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OUT SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE
COMBINATION THREAT OF SNOW AND ICE. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 20S AT
NEWPORT...SO A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR THEM...AS LONG AS GRADIENTS
REMAIN OFFSHORE IT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO GIVE THEM THE ALL
CLEAR. AREAS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST...TILLAMOOK AND LINCOLN
CITY...WILL STAY SNOW LONGER THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH.
FARTHER NORTH IT IS PERHAPS A BIT EASIER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
COLD AIR IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...AND ALTHOUGH EASTERLY GRADIENTS HAVE
RELAXED THROUGH THE GORGE...THEY WILL RAMP UP AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE PROVERBIAL
FREEZER DOOR OPEN...REPLENESHING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WITH COLD AIR. THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL IS DEEP...PROBABLY ABOUT
4000-6000FT DEEP...SO ANY WARM NOSE TRYING TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO
PORTLAND WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING ANY TEMPERATURES IN
THE COLUMN ABOVE FREEZING. IN FACT...MILDER PACIFIC AIR PUSHING INTO
THE PORTLAND METRO WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS
A SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN MOIST AND MILD PACIFIC AIR AND THE
ARCTIC AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CREATE LIFT AND ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION...THE 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW THIS PRETTY WELL...WHICH THEY
DID WITH YESTERDAYS SYSTEM.
A LOT OF WORDS TO SIMPLY SAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT
TODAY TO THE ONE THAT PLAYED OUT THURSDAY. OVERALL TIMING WILL BE A
FEW HOURS LATER...AND THE TIMING OF THE WARNINGS REFLECT THIS. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE WARMER AIR HAVING
A LITTLE MORE SUCCESS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES ONSHORE.
ANOTHER SIMILAR WAVE IS ON TAP FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THOUGH WITH FAST FLOW AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN THE NE PACIFIC
CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING IS LOW. 06Z GFS/NAM PAINT A SIMILAR
STRIPE OF QPF ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE MOUNTAINS ARE NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...OVERALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE
CASCADES WILL SEE A MUCH-NEEDED BOOST TO THEIR SNOWPACK. THE UW
WRF-GFS...NAM...GEM...GFS...ALL HAVE SNOW MEASURED IN FEET FOR THEM
OVER THE COMING DAYS. AFTER A LONG WAIT...IT APPEARS THE HOPES FOR
SNOW IN THE CASCADES ARE FINALLY COMING TO FRUITION. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REGION BEGINS TO SIT
SQUARE UNDER THE STORM TRACK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. BROAD LOW PRESSURE
WILL SET UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED JUST
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES TO PROGRESS ALONG JET STREAM AND BRING MORE FREQUENT PERIODS
OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AND FEWER PERIOD OF DRY PERIODS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5500
FEET DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PASSING SHORT WAVES PUSH LEADING WARMER
AIR SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. OVERALL...THIS APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
PATTERN FOR PRODUCING SNOW PACKS HIGHER IN THE CASCADES AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW FREEZING. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES. PRECIP NOW
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...MID-DAY TUESDAY/
TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN THURSDAY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELED QPF AMOUNTS VARY...NOT SURPRISINGLY...BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE PACNW
WILL BE IN THE CROSS HAIRS OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED. THUS DO NOT
FEEL OVERLY COMFORTABLE REGARDING THE NATURE OF ANY ONE SPECIFIC
SYSTEM. FORTUNATELY...THERE DO APPEAR TO BE AROUND 12 HOUR BREAKS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. /JBONK
&&
.AVIATION...WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS...WITH IFR AND MVFR OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND MOSTLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR ALONG THE COAST.
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS AM...THOUGH INTERIOR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR THIS AM. HOWEVER...SNOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN AFTER 18Z OVER LANE COUNTY...AND SPREAD N.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK INTO IFR AFTER 20Z...WITH MTNS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN S OF A KONP TO KEUG LINE AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...FEW FLURRIES AROUND THIS AM...BUT OVERALL
DRY WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS UNTIL
12Z OR 13Z. BY AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH INTO OPS AREA FROM
THE S AND SW. LIKELY TO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE ON THU
AFTERNOON...WITH IFR AFT 21Z AND PERSISTING TO 08Z. LIKELY 2 TO 4
INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT AIRPORT DURING THAT TIME. ROCKEY. &&
.MARINE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NE PAC...WITH HIGH PRES WILL
INLAND. GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS STRONGER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS MAY GUST AGAIN AT 20
TO 25 KT OVER THE N WATERS NEAR SHORE LATE TODAY THROUGH SAT...BUT
FEEL MAY NOT QUITE REACH THAT. SO WILL OPT GO WITH NO ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME. SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 25
TO 40 KT TUES...WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 10 FT. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM SAT FOR...
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 6 PM SAT FOR...
CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TODAY TO 10 AM SAT FOR...
LOWER COLUMBIA.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 6 PM SAT FOR...
CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING EUGENE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM TODAY FOR...
CENTRAL OREGON COAST...INCLUDING NEWPORT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 AM SAT FOR...
NORTH OREGON COAST.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM SAT FOR...
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING SALEM
COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM TODAY TO 10 AM SAT FOR...
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING PORTLAND METRO AREA.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM TODAY TO 10 AM SAT FOR...
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
CLARK COUNTY INCLUDING GREATER VANCOUVER AREA
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TODAY TO 10 AM SAT FOR...
I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY INCLUDING KELSO
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
742 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWING LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DEVELOPING OR SPREADING WEST FROM OFF THE
CAPROCK TO NEAR A TEXAS COUNTY OKLAHOMA TO CLARENDON TEXAS LINE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS AS A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY ONCE
AGAIN BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. ALSO...THE
FREEZING FOG MAY SPREAD FURTHER WEST INTO THE AMARILLO AND CANYON
AREAS AND ANOTHER UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...WILL BRING THE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG AS FAR WEST...FOR THE MOMENT...TO A TEXAS
COUNTY TO CLARENDON LINE AND WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON A FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY WITH THE STIPULATION THAT ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATER ON.
ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY. LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GUYMON TAF SITE AROUND 08Z
TO 11Z SUNDAY...ACROSS THE AMARILLO AND DALHART TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
TO 20 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY WILL BECOME IFR TO MVFR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND DROPPING TO VLIFR TO LIFR AT THE GUYMON TAF SITE AFTER
12Z TO 14Z SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY 63 DEGREES AT THE NWS AMARILLO OFFICE...FIRST TIME
AMARILLO HAS BEEN ABOVE 50 OR 60 DEGREES SINCE JANUARY 30. MOST OF
THE AREA IS WARM EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PANHANDLES. THE WARMING IN THESE LOCATIONS IS BEING INHIBITED BY
SNOW PACK...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THESE AREAS AS THEY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT
ISSUE A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE LAST NIGHT
LOCATIONS WITH A 6 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION RECEIVED FOG BUT
MOISTER AREAS DID NOT. MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT TILL WE SEE THE WHITES OF
THE FREEZING FOGS EYES TO SEE WHERE PATCHY FOG MIGHT SET UP.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH IN THE EARLY AM HOURS TOMORROW AND KNOCK
BACK TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN
THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TOMORROW BUT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY DRY. MODELS ARE STILL COMING IN WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS MOST OF OUR AREA DRY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. IF SNOW DOES FALL IN OUR AREA IT LOOKS TO BE VERY
LIGHT.
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE FIFTIES AND SIXTIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
AREA OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD PERSIST OVER SE TX THROUGH
SUNSET AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. RECENT
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY LAST THROUGH 19Z AT KCLL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BIG HOUSTON AIRPORTS NORTHWARD AND
MVFR SOUTHWARD. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS.
CEILINGS LOOK TO LIFT AT KCLL AND KUTS...AND POSSIBLY FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH. IF SO...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE LATEST NAM INDICATES THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND GIVEN THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE...EXPECT IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH 18Z.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THOUGH WARMING...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME RETURNS WHICH COULD
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...MOST LIKELY AS DRIZZLE. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND...AGAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE...MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT. ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL
BE LIGHT BUT STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
THREAT OF WET BULBING ALSO A CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ANY
PRECIP WHERE READINGS ARE CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WENT AHEAD
AND EXTENDED WW ADVSY UNTIL NOON WHICH MATCHES UP W/ NEIGHBORING
OFFICES TOO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE AND RADAR
TRENDS AND POSSIBLY FURTHER EXTEND THIS ADVISORY IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO ADJUST TEMPS TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS. NAM12, TX TECH WRF & HRRR SUGGEST INCREASING LIGHT
PRECIP COVERAGE 2-9 PM ACROSS THE REGION AS INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE BECOMES FELT AND LLVLS FURTHER SATURATE. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 36 32 63 43 66 / 40 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 40 34 63 47 68 / 40 40 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 40 60 53 65 / 30 40 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
MADISON...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1133 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.AVIATION...
KLBB AND KCDS SHOULD BOTH REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL PREVAIL AT KLBB THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP FAIRLY QUICKLY...WHILE KCDS WILL SEE A LOW
DECK HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF OR ALL OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH
WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
UPDATE...
REPORTS OF SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE
TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SEEMS TO
CORRELATE WELL WITH THE 12Z MAF RAOB SHOWING A DISTINCT WARM NOSE
FILTERING IN ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATOP A WELL BELOW FREEZING
BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECTING A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP
TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WITH MAINLY 30S
EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE LAST IN A STRING OF MINOR TROUGHS WILL ENTER THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS A.M.
INDICATED PERIODS OF UNMEASURABLE SNOW FROM AMARILLO SOUTH TO
LUBBOCK. RECENT HRRR AND NAM APPEAR ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF
SUSTAINED LIFT TAKING SHAPE FROM THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE FAR
SRN SOUTH PLAINS NEAR SUNRISE. THIS REGION IS ALREADY BENEFITING
FROM PROLONGED /ALBEIT WEAK/ ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STOUT 120 KNOT UPPER JET. BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING APPEARS A BIT TOO HARD TO
COME BY IN THIS SETUP. SO WE HAVE PULLED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FAVOR
OF FLURRIES BEFORE NIXING THIS MENTION ALTOGETHER BY THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE WILL TUG
MILDER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAPROCK...BUT STUBBORN S-SE WINDS OFF
THE CAPROCK AND A LINGERING SNOW PACK IN PLACES WILL KEEP HIGHS HERE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER. EXPECT A BIT MORE UNIFORMITY TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA.
LONG TERM...
AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...WITH A BROAD MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST...RIDGE WEST...AND WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. TWO
PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOMETIME SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MONDAY/TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM ACROSS THE AREA...AS BREEZY
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 60S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND. FROM HERE...THE
BIG QUESTION MARK REMAINS THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH. OPTED TO
SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS... AS DAYTIME FROPAS TEND
TO BE SLOWED BY DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF THEM. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING WESTERLIES WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY... WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A SHARP COOLDOWN.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED AS WELL THAT WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
SUNDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT MONDAY
AND MOST LIKELY TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE REGARDING THE TIMING OF
YET ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW
ALOFT. THE GFS CURRENTLY DEPICTS A FASTER... MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED...AND WEAKER WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...WITH A TIMING DIFFERENCE
OF ALMOST A FULL 24 HOURS. OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE GFS
DEPICTION... WITH ENHANCED POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEGINNING
MONDAY EVENING. ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MOST OF THE RAIN MENTION...AS LATEST
FORECAST TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. STILL...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THIS UPPER WAVE DEPARTS...
BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ALLOW A PLEASANT WARMING TREND
TO CARRY US INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 27 59 29 59 24 / 0 0 0 0 10
TULIA 24 57 29 57 20 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 24 59 30 60 21 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 27 62 31 62 25 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 26 60 30 60 24 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 28 66 32 66 26 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 28 61 30 63 25 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 21 53 23 42 22 / 0 0 0 0 10
SPUR 21 51 24 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 25 59 30 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1023 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.UPDATE...
REPORTS OF SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE
TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SEEMS TO
CORRELATE WELL WITH THE 12Z MAF RAOB SHOWING A DISTINCT WARM NOSE
FILTERING IN ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATOP A WELL BELOW FREEZING
BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECTING A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP
TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WITH MAINLY 30S
EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -SN AT LBB THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDS AND BREEZY SW WINDS BY MIDDAY BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH. AT
MOST WE EXPECT ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...SO WILL FOREGO AN AIRPORT
WX WARNING.
VFR CONDS WILL BE DELAYED AT CDS UNTIL AT LEAST MID-AFTN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THRU THE EVENING
UNTIL DRIER SWLY WINDS FINALLY EMERGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE LAST IN A STRING OF MINOR TROUGHS WILL ENTER THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS A.M.
INDICATED PERIODS OF UNMEASURABLE SNOW FROM AMARILLO SOUTH TO
LUBBOCK. RECENT HRRR AND NAM APPEAR ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF
SUSTAINED LIFT TAKING SHAPE FROM THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE FAR
SRN SOUTH PLAINS NEAR SUNRISE. THIS REGION IS ALREADY BENEFITING
FROM PROLONGED /ALBEIT WEAK/ ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STOUT 120 KNOT UPPER JET. BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING APPEARS A BIT TOO HARD TO
COME BY IN THIS SETUP. SO WE HAVE PULLED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FAVOR
OF FLURRIES BEFORE NIXING THIS MENTION ALTOGETHER BY THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE WILL TUG
MILDER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAPROCK...BUT STUBBORN S-SE WINDS OFF
THE CAPROCK AND A LINGERING SNOW PACK IN PLACES WILL KEEP HIGHS HERE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER. EXPECT A BIT MORE UNIFORMITY TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA.
LONG TERM...
AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...WITH A BROAD MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST...RIDGE WEST...AND WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. TWO
PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOMETIME SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MONDAY/TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM ACROSS THE AREA...AS BREEZY
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 60S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND. FROM HERE...THE
BIG QUESTION MARK REMAINS THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH. OPTED TO
SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS... AS DAYTIME FROPAS TEND
TO BE SLOWED BY DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF THEM. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING WESTERLIES WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY... WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A SHARP COOLDOWN.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED AS WELL THAT WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
SUNDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT MONDAY
AND MOST LIKELY TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE REGARDING THE TIMING OF
YET ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW
ALOFT. THE GFS CURRENTLY DEPICTS A FASTER... MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED...AND WEAKER WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...WITH A TIMING DIFFERENCE
OF ALMOST A FULL 24 HOURS. OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE GFS
DEPICTION... WITH ENHANCED POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEGINNING
MONDAY EVENING. ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MOST OF THE RAIN MENTION...AS LATEST
FORECAST TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. STILL...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THIS UPPER WAVE DEPARTS...
BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ALLOW A PLEASANT WARMING TREND
TO CARRY US INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 41 27 59 29 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 38 24 57 29 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 39 24 59 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 43 27 62 31 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 41 26 60 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 42 28 66 32 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 42 28 61 30 63 / 60 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 29 21 53 23 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 34 21 51 24 55 / 60 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 34 25 59 30 55 / 60 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THOUGH WARMING...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME RETURNS WHICH COULD
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...MOST LIKELY AS DRIZZLE. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND...AGAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE...MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT. ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL
BE LIGHT BUT STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
THREAT OF WET BULBING ALSO A CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ANY
PRECIP WHERE READINGS ARE CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WENT AHEAD
AND EXTENDED WW ADVSY UNTIL NOON WHICH MATCHES UP W/ NEIGHBORING
OFFICES TOO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE AND RADAR
TRENDS AND POSSIBLY FURTHER EXTEND THIS ADVISORY IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO ADJUST TEMPS TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS. NAM12, TX TECH WRF & HRRR SUGGEST INCREASING LIGHT
PRECIP COVERAGE 2-9 PM ACROSS THE REGION AS INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE BECOMES FELT AND LLVLS FURTHER SATURATE. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 36 32 63 43 66 / 40 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 40 34 63 47 68 / 40 40 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 40 60 53 65 / 30 40 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
MADISON...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
517 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -SN AT LBB THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDS AND BREEZY SW WINDS BY MIDDAY BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH. AT
MOST WE EXPECT ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...SO WILL FOREGO AN AIRPORT
WX WARNING.
VFR CONDS WILL BE DELAYED AT CDS UNTIL AT LEAST MID-AFTN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THRU THE EVENING
UNTIL DRIER SWLY WINDS FINALLY EMERGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE LAST IN A STRING OF MINOR TROUGHS WILL ENTER THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS A.M.
INDICATED PERIODS OF UNMEASURABLE SNOW FROM AMARILLO SOUTH TO
LUBBOCK. RECENT HRRR AND NAM APPEAR ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF
SUSTAINED LIFT TAKING SHAPE FROM THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE FAR
SRN SOUTH PLAINS NEAR SUNRISE. THIS REGION IS ALREADY BENEFITING
FROM PROLONGED /ALBEIT WEAK/ ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STOUT 120 KNOT UPPER JET. BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING APPEARS A BIT TOO HARD TO
COME BY IN THIS SETUP. SO WE HAVE PULLED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FAVOR
OF FLURRIES BEFORE NIXING THIS MENTION ALTOGETHER BY THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE WILL TUG
MILDER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAPROCK...BUT STUBBORN S-SE WINDS OFF
THE CAPROCK AND A LINGERING SNOW PACK IN PLACES WILL KEEP HIGHS HERE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER. EXPECT A BIT MORE UNIFORMITY TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA.
LONG TERM...
AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...WITH A BROAD MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST...RIDGE WEST...AND WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. TWO
PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOMETIME SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MONDAY/TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM ACROSS THE AREA...AS BREEZY
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 60S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND. FROM HERE...THE
BIG QUESTION MARK REMAINS THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH. OPTED TO
SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS... AS DAYTIME FROPAS TEND
TO BE SLOWED BY DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF THEM. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING WESTERLIES WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY... WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A SHARP COOLDOWN.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED AS WELL THAT WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
SUNDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT MONDAY
AND MOST LIKELY TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE REGARDING THE TIMING OF
YET ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW
ALOFT. THE GFS CURRENTLY DEPICTS A FASTER... MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED...AND WEAKER WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...WITH A TIMING DIFFERENCE
OF ALMOST A FULL 24 HOURS. OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE GFS
DEPICTION... WITH ENHANCED POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEGINNING
MONDAY EVENING. ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MOST OF THE RAIN MENTION...AS LATEST
FORECAST TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. STILL...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THIS UPPER WAVE DEPARTS...
BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ALLOW A PLEASANT WARMING TREND
TO CARRY US INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 41 27 59 29 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 38 24 57 29 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 39 24 59 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 43 27 62 31 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 41 26 60 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 42 28 66 32 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 42 28 61 30 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 29 21 53 23 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 34 21 51 24 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 34 25 59 30 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/93/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
409 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
THE LAST IN A STRING OF MINOR TROUGHS WILL ENTER THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS A.M.
INDICATED PERIODS OF UNMEASURABLE SNOW FROM AMARILLO SOUTH TO
LUBBOCK. RECENT HRRR AND NAM APPEAR ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF
SUSTAINED LIFT TAKING SHAPE FROM THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE FAR
SRN SOUTH PLAINS NEAR SUNRISE. THIS REGION IS ALREADY BENEFITING
FROM PROLONGED /ALBEIT WEAK/ ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STOUT 120 KNOT UPPER JET. BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING APPEARS A BIT TOO HARD TO
COME BY IN THIS SETUP. SO WE HAVE PULLED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FAVOR
OF FLURRIES BEFORE NIXING THIS MENTION ALTOGETHER BY THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE WILL TUG
MILDER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAPROCK...BUT STUBBORN S-SE WINDS OFF
THE CAPROCK AND A LINGERING SNOW PACK IN PLACES WILL KEEP HIGHS HERE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER. EXPECT A BIT MORE UNIFORMITY TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...
AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...WITH A BROAD MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST...RIDGE WEST...AND WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. TWO
PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOMETIME SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MONDAY/TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM ACROSS THE AREA...AS BREEZY
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 60S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND. FROM HERE...THE
BIG QUESTION MARK REMAINS THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH. OPTED TO
SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS... AS DAYTIME FROPAS TEND
TO BE SLOWED BY DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF THEM. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING WESTERLIES WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY... WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A SHARP COOLDOWN.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED AS WELL THAT WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
SUNDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT MONDAY
AND MOST LIKELY TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE REGARDING THE TIMING OF
YET ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW
ALOFT. THE GFS CURRENTLY DEPICTS A FASTER... MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED...AND WEAKER WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...WITH A TIMING DIFFERENCE
OF ALMOST A FULL 24 HOURS. OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE GFS
DEPICTION... WITH ENHANCED POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEGINNING
MONDAY EVENING. ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MOST OF THE RAIN MENTION...AS LATEST
FORECAST TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. STILL...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THIS UPPER WAVE DEPARTS...
BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ALLOW A PLEASANT WARMING TREND
TO CARRY US INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 41 27 59 29 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 38 24 57 29 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 39 24 59 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 43 27 62 31 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 41 26 60 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 42 28 66 32 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 42 28 61 30 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 29 21 53 23 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 34 21 51 24 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 34 25 59 30 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014
.AVIATION...
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT DOING ANYTHING TO HELP CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS GAVE THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE CHANGES.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN ONE TERMINAL OVER ANOTHER IS QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. FOR ALL SITES...AM GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING HOURS.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...AND THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION A
BIT LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE
06Z TAFS...BUT IS A POSSIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
UPPER STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
FOX
&&
.UPDATE...
AS ONE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS...ANOTHER ONE CAN
BE SEEN ON THIS EVENING/S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWINGING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND IS PROGGED TO REACH WEST TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN SWING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE BEST OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES OVERHEAD...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN OVER
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO CANTON LINE.
FARTHER NORTH...LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE ADDITION OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS
INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE. WITH MODEST LIFT
ALREADY PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE....SOME LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD
BE AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
METROPLEX. ONE POSSIBLE REASON FOR THIS COULD BE THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ACQUIRING ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE JUST BEFORE ACCELERATING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WHATEVER THE CASE MAY BE...THE ONE UPDATE
THIS EVENING HAS BEEN TO BUMP POPS UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX AND ADD SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS. THIS KEEPS DALLAS FORT
WORTH PROPER IN THE DUSTING TO 0.2 INCH RANGE WHICH SHOULD NOT
REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR UPDATES
TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS WERE NEEDED.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014/
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY HAS MOVED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST
BUT THE NEXT ONE IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL RAPIDLY
MOVE EAST AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SYSTEM
VERY WELL...BUT THE BETTER PERFORMERS WERE THE NAM AND RAP AND
THEREFORE WILL BE LEANING IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TOMORROWS FORECAST IS VERY LOW GIVEN OUR
FORECAST OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIP IS NOT REALLY SUPPORTED IN
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT WE ARE WARY OF THE
STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM ALSO BEING UNDERESTIMATED.
ONCE AGAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONG BUT THE MAIN ISSUE IS
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
ACTUALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT HIGH MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL
SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION
AND BANDED SNOWFALL IN THE AREA OF THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR 500 TO
600MB OR NEAR 18-22 THOUSAND FEET. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ON AREA RADARS. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON JUST HOW DRY THE AIRMASS WILL BE IN A LAYER NEAR 700 TO 850MB
OR ABOUT 5-10 THOUSAND FEET. WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF
AND ONE SREF MEMBER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FALLING
SNOW WILL SUBLIMATE WHEN IT REACHES THIS DRY LAYER AND NOT REACH
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AM NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS JUST YET...AT
LEAST NOT UNTIL WE CAN SEE THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM THE EVENING
RAOBS AT MAF AND DRT. OBVIOUSLY THERE WAS A LOT MORE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN THE AREA THAN WAS FORECAST TODAY AND IT IS LIKELY
STILL HANGING AROUND. SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM INDICATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SNOW PRODUCING AREA
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL INTENSITY...BELIEVE MORE SATURATION
WILL OCCUR FROM TOP DOWN THAN MODELS INDICATE. THUS WILL FORECAST
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20
TOMORROW...WITH POPS FOR MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AT 20 PERCENT
AND ACCUMULATIONS AT JUST A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL BE BRINGING WARMER AIR AND RICH GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN A HURRY AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW SUBTLE LIFT OCCURRING NEAR 925MB
WHICH WOULD CORRESPOND TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE DAY
BREAK. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE BELOW FREEZING.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THIS OCCURS. MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK TO
WARM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD IN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH IF ANY. HOWEVER WHEN THE PRECIP STARTS IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL TRY TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SO IT MAY START AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN BUT SHOULD TRANSITION
TO REGULAR DRIZZLE OR RAIN DURING THE EVENT. AFTER A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF VERY COLD SUBFREEZING TEMPS...ROAD SURFACES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD STICK ON IMPACT. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION OF ICE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STILL THIS CAN BE A MAJOR TRAFFIC HAZARD
ESPECIALLY IF PEOPLE ARE NOT AWARE OF ICE ON ROADS. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO GET THE WORD OUT ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL TRAVEL ISSUES TOMORROW. THANKS TO WFO EWX/HGX/SHV
FOR THE COORDINATION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DOWN SLOPE WESTERLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER
ECMWF/GFS FORECASTS WITH THIS FRONT...AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE
SHALLOW AND WANT TO SPILL SOUTH DUE TO ITS HIGHER DENSITY.
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST WILL FEATURE INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE SUNDAY FRONT WILL SETTLE IN
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD DOME AND WE
SHOULD SEE CHANCES OF PRECIP STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASING INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OUTPUT
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TAME.
FURTHERMORE THE GFS/CANADIAN WOULD SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD WINTER MIX
EVENT FOR THE REGION...BUT AGAIN THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS. FOR
NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME WINTER PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THE
REGION THAT IS MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TO SEE WINTER PRECIP
AND WITH MODEL AGREEMENT LOW...IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP THE WINTER
MIX UP THERE AND SPREAD IT SOUTH SHOULD THE ECMWF COME IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 21 34 29 57 34 / 10 30 10 0 0
WACO, TX 23 35 29 64 38 / 20 20 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 21 33 25 53 33 / 10 30 20 0 0
DENTON, TX 19 33 26 56 30 / 10 30 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 21 33 26 55 31 / 10 30 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 22 34 30 57 37 / 10 30 10 0 0
TERRELL, TX 23 34 27 57 34 / 10 20 10 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 24 34 30 60 38 / 10 30 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 24 35 29 65 38 / 20 30 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 19 37 26 60 31 / 10 20 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ156>160-174-175.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ122-
135-146>148-161-162.
&&
$$
14/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1034 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014
.UPDATE...
AS ONE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS...ANOTHER ONE CAN
BE SEEN ON THIS EVENING/S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWINGING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND IS PROGGED TO REACH WEST TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN SWING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE BEST OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES OVERHEAD...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN OVER
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO CANTON LINE.
FARTHER NORTH...LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE ADDITION OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS
INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE. WITH MODEST LIFT
ALREADY PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE....SOME LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD
BE AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
METROPLEX. ONE POSSIBLE REASON FOR THIS COULD BE THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ACQUIRING ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE JUST BEFORE ACCELERATING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WHATEVER THE CASE MAY BE...THE ONE UPDATE
THIS EVENING HAS BEEN TO BUMP POPS UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX AND ADD SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS. THIS KEEPS DALLAS FORT
WORTH PROPER IN THE DUSTING TO 0.2 INCH RANGE WHICH SHOULD NOT
REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR UPDATES
TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS WERE NEEDED.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
INTERESTING FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW. FOR THE
TAFS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST SKIES...WITH CEILINGS
HOVERING AROUND 030BKN/OVC. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AROUND 10KNOTS.
THE BIG QUESTIONS OCCUR TOMORROW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTH AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN OR A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS DOESN`T OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN
THE FORECAST...ROUGHLY AROUND 18Z. IN THE NORTH...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE METROPLEX AREA
TAFS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
FLURRIES AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
TAKING A PEEK AT THE INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE BONE DRY. HOWEVER...LIKE TODAY...THERE IS MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF LIFT. NEWEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A HINT AT ELEVATED
CAPE WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE MESOSCALE BANDS IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...HAVE YET TO SEE THE FULL
RESOLUTION SOUNDINGS SO AM NOT YET SURE IF THIS IS AN ACCURATE
INTERPRETATION OF THE AVAILABLE DATA.
LOCAL WRF OUTPUT SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE BANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MODEL ALSO PICKED UP ON THE
BANDING FEATURES THIS MORNING...BUT DID NOT PLACE THEM IN THE
RIGHT SPOT. SO...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A FEW THINGS.
FIRST...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER SHOT AT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. EXACTLY WHERE THE BANDS SET
UP IS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. SECOND...THE LOCAL WRF...THE 21Z
SREF...AND THE LATEST 00Z NAM ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT OUR CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH WHAT THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE GIVES US.
FOX
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014/
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY HAS MOVED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST
BUT THE NEXT ONE IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL RAPIDLY
MOVE EAST AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SYSTEM
VERY WELL...BUT THE BETTER PERFORMERS WERE THE NAM AND RAP AND
THEREFORE WILL BE LEANING IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TOMORROWS FORECAST IS VERY LOW GIVEN OUR
FORECAST OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIP IS NOT REALLY SUPPORTED IN
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT WE ARE WARY OF THE
STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM ALSO BEING UNDERESTIMATED.
ONCE AGAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONG BUT THE MAIN ISSUE IS
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
ACTUALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT HIGH MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL
SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION
AND BANDED SNOWFALL IN THE AREA OF THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR 500 TO
600MB OR NEAR 18-22 THOUSAND FEET. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ON AREA RADARS. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON JUST HOW DRY THE AIRMASS WILL BE IN A LAYER NEAR 700 TO 850MB
OR ABOUT 5-10 THOUSAND FEET. WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF
AND ONE SREF MEMBER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FALLING
SNOW WILL SUBLIMATE WHEN IT REACHES THIS DRY LAYER AND NOT REACH
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AM NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS JUST YET...AT
LEAST NOT UNTIL WE CAN SEE THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM THE EVENING
RAOBS AT MAF AND DRT. OBVIOUSLY THERE WAS A LOT MORE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN THE AREA THAN WAS FORECAST TODAY AND IT IS LIKELY
STILL HANGING AROUND. SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM INDICATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SNOW PRODUCING AREA
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL INTENSITY...BELIEVE MORE SATURATION
WILL OCCUR FROM TOP DOWN THAN MODELS INDICATE. THUS WILL FORECAST
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20
TOMORROW...WITH POPS FOR MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AT 20 PERCENT
AND ACCUMULATIONS AT JUST A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL BE BRINGING WARMER AIR AND RICH GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN A HURRY AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW SUBTLE LIFT OCCURRING NEAR 925MB
WHICH WOULD CORRESPOND TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE DAY
BREAK. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE BELOW FREEZING.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THIS OCCURS. MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK TO
WARM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD IN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH IF ANY. HOWEVER WHEN THE PRECIP STARTS IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL TRY TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SO IT MAY START AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN BUT SHOULD TRANSITION
TO REGULAR DRIZZLE OR RAIN DURING THE EVENT. AFTER A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF VERY COLD SUBFREEZING TEMPS...ROAD SURFACES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD STICK ON IMPACT. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION OF ICE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STILL THIS CAN BE A MAJOR TRAFFIC HAZARD
ESPECIALLY IF PEOPLE ARE NOT AWARE OF ICE ON ROADS. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO GET THE WORD OUT ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL TRAVEL ISSUES TOMORROW. THANKS TO WFO EWX/HGX/SHV
FOR THE COORDINATION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DOWN SLOPE WESTERLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER
ECMWF/GFS FORECASTS WITH THIS FRONT...AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE
SHALLOW AND WANT TO SPILL SOUTH DUE TO ITS HIGHER DENSITY.
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST WILL FEATURE INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE SUNDAY FRONT WILL SETTLE IN
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD DOME AND WE
SHOULD SEE CHANCES OF PRECIP STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASING INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OUTPUT
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TAME.
FURTHERMORE THE GFS/CANADIAN WOULD SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD WINTER MIX
EVENT FOR THE REGION...BUT AGAIN THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS. FOR
NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME WINTER PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THE
REGION THAT IS MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TO SEE WINTER PRECIP
AND WITH MODEL AGREEMENT LOW...IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP THE WINTER
MIX UP THERE AND SPREAD IT SOUTH SHOULD THE ECMWF COME IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 21 34 29 57 34 / 10 20 10 0 0
WACO, TX 23 35 29 64 38 / 20 20 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 21 33 25 53 33 / 10 20 20 0 0
DENTON, TX 19 33 26 56 30 / 10 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 21 33 26 55 31 / 10 20 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 22 34 30 57 37 / 10 20 10 0 0
TERRELL, TX 23 34 27 57 34 / 10 20 10 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 24 34 30 60 38 / 10 30 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 24 35 29 65 38 / 20 30 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 19 37 26 60 31 / 10 20 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ156>160-174-175.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ122-
135-146>148-161-162.
&&
$$
/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
530 PM PST SAT FEB 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE AIR WILL WARM OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A MILD WET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD INTO GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY. RADAR AND THE RUC13 MODEL SHOW
1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS MAKING IT NORTHWARD TO THE HOOD CANAL AREA
AND TO ABOUT THE PIERCE-KING COUNTY LINE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR THE TACOMA AREA...THE HOOD CANAL AREA...THE LOWER
CHEHALIS VALLEY...AND THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST UNTIL 4 AM AS A
RESULT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT VERY STRONG EASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIER SNOW FROM MOVING INTO KING OR
SNOHOMISH COUNTIES...SO EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH AT MOST THERE. WILL
BE MONITORING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS FOR
THE THREAT OF ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THE
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CUT BACK AMOUNTS. ALBRECHT
FROM THE AFTERNOON SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A WEATHER SYSTEM IS
MOVING INTO WRN WA THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING AND MANY LOCATIONS IN WESTERN
WILL FINALLY SEE SOME SNOWFALL TONIGHT. AT 3PM THE SEA-YKM GRADIENT
IS ARND -9MB AND THE OLM-BLI GRADIENT IS ARND -4MB SO I DO NOT HAVE
A GREAT DEAL OF SNOWFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ONLY HAVE A CHANCE IN
THE NORTH...BUT OVERNIGHT THE GRADIENTS WILL GIVE OUT AND THE WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY OVERWHELM THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
AT 3PM SNOW IS FALLING AROUND TOLEDO AND SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTH SOUND. SNOW FALLING INTO THIS AIR MASS WILL SEE
A GOOD EVAPORATIVE COOLING/DEW POINT COOLING EFFECT...DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON AVERAGE AROUND 20 DEGREES...LOWER IN THE NORTH. ON SUNDAY
IT WILL WARM UP AND AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING ANOTHER SURGE
OF WARMER AIR WILL TAKE 850MB TEMPS OUT OF THE RANGE WHERE SNOW IS A
CONCERN AT ALL IN THE LOWLANDS. I DO NOT SEE MUCH TROUBLE SCOURING
OUT THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN WESTERN WA...EXCEPT FOR THE APPROACHES
TO THE CASCADE PASSES. WET MILD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AND IT IS LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY WEATHER ARE ON TAP FOR THE
LOWLANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FOR THE MOUNTAINS THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
UP AND DOWN...BUT IT OUGHT TO AVERAGE AROUND 3000 FEET. A LOOK AT
THE LATEST 18Z GFS DOES NOT SHOW ANY WINDSTORMS. THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT I SEE IN THE 12Z ECMWF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL WAVE
THAT MOVES INTO WESTERN OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO IF THAT WAVE WERE
STRONGER AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAT MIGHT BE AN INTERESTING STORM
BUT THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THAT FRONTAL WAVE AND TIMING ANY
SHORTWAVES AND FRONTS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS LEAD TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL/N
OREGON COAST THIS EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD N INTO THE SRN HALF OF WRN WA THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE N PORTION. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SW WA THIS
EVENING...REACHING KHQM AND KOLM 03-05Z...THEN REACHING KSEA/KBFI
AFTER 06Z. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES FROM KHQM TO KOLM SWD AND A
TRACE TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE UP TO KSEA/KBFI BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS FROM KPAE NWD...AND MVFR DEVELOPING S OF
KPAE TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
KSEA...LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER
06Z AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING (A 60
PERCENT CHANCE). A TRACE TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. A CHANCE
OVER FROM SNOW SHOWERS TO RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. VFR CIGS WITH MID/
HIGH CLOUDS....THEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. NE WIND
6-12 KT BECOMING SE WIND 5-8 KT AFTER 16Z. DTM
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND E OF THE
CASCADES TODAY. LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. GALES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS/CENTRAL STRAIT/ AND N INLAND
WATERS.
A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON MON. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM ON TUE. THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. DTM
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...TACOMA AREA...
HOOD CANAL AREA...LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY...AND CENTRAL COAST
UNTIL 4 AM SUN.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOST COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND NORTH INLAND WATERS.
GALE WARNING NORTH INNER COAST ZONE...AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
550 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
WHERE TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY RISEN ABOVE ZERO. WILL LET THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SCOTTS BLUFF
AND MORRILL COUNTIES WHERE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO
THE WARMER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAVE SEEN A
STEADY AND WELCOME TREND UPWARD OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINED ON THE BREEZY SIDE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TODAY WILL SEE FURTHER WARMING DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND AS
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO
ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
REGARDING THE WINDS...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND WILL
STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD INDUCE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE ARLINGTON AREA WITH 700 MB WINDS
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 50 KTS THROUGH THIS TIME. THE HIGH WINDS SHOULD
THEN SPREAD INTO THE BORDEAUX AREA AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EASTWARD
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
WINDS OVERALL DO LOOK TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING 50 KT WINDS AT 700 MB TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING. THEREFORE...HIGH WINDS MAY
PERSIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. A STRONGER JET AND SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...WITH 700 MB WINDS PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SO...THINK HIGH WINDS
WILL RETURN BY MID SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS. FELT IT REASONABLE TO JUST EXTEND THE
CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SECOND SURGE OF HIGH
WINDS. THE ONE QUESTION THAT REMAINS TO BE ANSWERED IS JUST HOW
STRONG WINDS AT THE BORDEAUX SITE WILL BECOME DURING THIS SECONDARY
SURGE OF HIGH WINDS. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BACK INTO THE CWA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. IF THE
BOUNDARY SURGES ALL THE WAY TO THE LARAMIE RANGE...DOUBT BORDEAUX
WILL SEE THE STRONG WINDS AND THUS MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WARNING
HERE EARLY. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS MAY JUST KEEP THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AT BAY LONG
ENOUGH FOR THE GAP WINDS TO IMPACT THE I-25 CORRIDOR NEAR BORDEAUX.
THE OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE CWA. UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND STARTED IT AT NOON
TODAY AS AN INITIAL JETLET WILL SLAM INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES AND
LIKELY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNSET.
THEN AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...THE SECOND STRONGER JET WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD AND WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS CAREFULLY FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL. THINKING 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AT
SARATOGA AND ARLINGTON TODAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC
FORCING AND THE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SNOW ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE STRONGER JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. BLOWING SNOW WILL DEFINITELY BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND IF ARLINGTON RECEIVES THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE ENERGETIC JET WILL COME A BETTER FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE AS WELL. STILL LOOKS TO SEE INCREASING SNOW
POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTHERN LARAMIE EASTWARD INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING
FRONTOGENESIS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH WHERE THE AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP ON SATURDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING FURTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE CWA WHILE
THE NAM AND ECMWF SHIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD JET DYNAMICS AND LIFT
FROM THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF ZONES. EXPECT ENHANCED SNOW AMOUNTS WHEREVER THE FRONTOGENESIS
BAND SETS UP BUT ITS TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT WHERE THAT WILL BE.
WOULD FAVOR THE FURTHER NORTHWARD POSITION INITIALLY DUE TO THE
STRONG WESTERLY MIDLEVEL WINDS IN PLACE. SO...STILL THINKING 3 TO 6
INCHES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 6 TO 10 IN THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH THIS EVENT. AS A SFC HIGH DIVES SOUTH INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE SNOW BAND TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM WITH SNOW
CHANCES/LOCATIONS INITIALLY...THEN WINDS LATER NEXT WEEK BEING THE
FORECAST CHALLENGES.
STARTING OFF SUNDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SUNDAY MORNING LAYING ALONG A LINE FROM SIDNEY TO DOUGLAS
SUNDAY MORNING AND BOTH ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH QPF LOCATION AND
OUTPUT. GFS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON QPF THOUGH. NAM IS WAY TOO
DRY AND IS CONSIDERED THE OUTLIER ON THIS EVENT. IT WILL STILL BE
WINDY OUT WEST AS THE GFS KEEPS 700MB WINDS 50KTS OR GREATER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT BLOWING SNOW GOING OUT THAT WAY.
THIS BOUNDARY THEN LAYS UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY.
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WE HAVE ANOTHER JET MAX MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING WITH THE CWFA IN A FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
JET MAX. 700MB TEMPERATURES -10 TO -14C. PRETTY MOIST PROFILES
SEEN ON GFS SOUNDINGS FOR VARIOUS POINTS IN THE CWFA AS
WELL...WITH MOISTURE UP THROUGH 300MBS. FAIRLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE -10 TO -20C LAYER WITH 8-10 MICROBAR UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITIES HERE AT CHEYENNE. WITH SNOW RATIOS 20:1 OR HIGHER IN THIS
SETUP...WE COULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD SNOW EVENT BEING WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.
DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CWFA. WITH THIS MORNINGS RUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND MAYBE THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH LARAMIE AND
I-25 CORRIDOR UP TO WHEATLAND.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
SLOWLY AS WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST WITH SNOW
ENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES.
700MB WINDS REALLY BEGIN RAMPING UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING
TO 55KTS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING...INCREASING TO 65KTS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS STAY STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SO WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH WIND HEADLINES FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT KRWL AND KLAR LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASING AND SNOW BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
KRWL WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 35KT RANGE WHICH WILL
CREATE THE BLOWING SNOW. KLAR A LITTLE LATER FOR THE WINDS TO COME
UP. HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS OVER SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. VFR EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SNOW
BEGINNING IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
WYZ112-114.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
WYZ110.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR WYZ106-116.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ002-003-
020-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
358 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
...Updated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Areas of locally dense freezing fog that developed over parts of
central and western Kansas after sunset were propagating southwest
behind the front into the far southwest part of the state early this
morning. The last few runs of the RUC and HRRR visibility progs have
been pretty consistent in moving the fog south and west into
southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles by 12z. This
looks reasonable given the dry air advection that is currently
ongoing from north central into southwest Kansas. The dense fog
advisory goes until 12z and will let it ride but continue to monitor
for any areal or temporal extensions.
Per SREF analysis and water vapor imagery, the first upper speed max
was currently moving into the upper Mississippi Valley early this
morning. The subsequent speed maxes will move out along the Kansas
Nebraska border today and out over Kansas tonight. Associated mid
level frontogenetic forcing will move out across Nebraska and far
northern Kansas this morning and over Kansas tonight. Regional radar
mosaic shows light snow already moving out of Wyoming into the
Nebraska Panhandle and this will continue eastward across northern
Kansas and Nebraska today. The current forecast has chance pops for
light snow along the I-70 corridor today. Think any measurable snow
will be north of the Dodge City forecast area today. The system
moving out tonight should bring some accumulating snow to west
central and parts of southwest and south central Kansas tonight. The
models have been consistent with this so have increased pops well
into the likely category tonight. The NAM is showing a swath of 1-2
inch snowfall generally north of Highway 50 tonight. Have increased
snowfall amounts a little but for now think we will not see enough
to warrant a winter weather advisory.
Temperatures will not rise much, if at all, today given the ongoing
cold air advection. Temperatures tonight should fall well down into
the single digits above zero with a few low teens possible around
Elkhart and Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
A weak shortwave trough will move through the Central Rockies along
the zonal flow late Sunday. This shortwave will then move through
Kansas on Monday. Convergence and mid level moisture will increase
as this feature approaches. Mostly cloudy skies are anticipated
throughout the day Monday with light to moderate snow showers.
Precipitation chances end from west to east Monday evening into
Monday night. Snow totals remain around 1 to 2 inches across the
area. However, a few areas across west central and south central
Kansas could see over 2 inches by the time the system exits
the area. Surrounding offices and DDC have decided to not go with a
winter weather advisory at this time and have the day shift see what
the next model run suggests. Cloudy skies should continue Monday
night with some clearing possible across west central Kansas towards
sunrise. Winds will generally be from a northeasterly direction
Monday as high pressure builds into the Plains. With the cloud cover
and shot of cold air advection across the area, temperatures Monday
are not expected to increase much from the morning lows. Highs
Monday are forecasted to range from the lower teens across central
Kansas to lower 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Lows Tuesday
morning are expected to range from the negative single digits across
central Kansas to around 10 degrees across far southwestern Kansas.
However, if more clearing occurs overnight, temperatures could end
up lower than what the current forecast depicts.
The dome of high pressure moves east of the area on Tuesday shifting
winds to the southwest. A few low level clouds may continue in the
morning across south central Kansas Tuesday morning. Otherwise
expect partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. The Central High
Plains will then be stuck in between an upper level ridge across the
western US and an upper level long wave trough across the eastern
United states throughout the remainder of the forecast period. A few
weak shortwaves are progged to move north of the area, but do not
look to bring any precipitation across southwest Kansas at this
time. Only a few clouds are expected to be observed throughout this
period with dry conditions. Winds will generally be from the west
but shift slightly to the north or south as the aforementioned
shortwaves move north of southwest Kansas. We will finally begin the
slow warming up process Tuesday through Saturday, however the
snowpack across much of the region will need to be knocked out quite
a bit before we realize maximum potential based on typical downslope
mix-down scenarios.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
IFR to LIFR ceilings will continue at the TAF sites in southwest
and central Kansas through the overnight hours. Visibilities will
stay in the 1/4 to 1/2 mile range at Garden City and Dodge City
with visibilities remaining around 4-6 miles at Hays through the
overnight hours. Conditions should improve somewhat into the MVFR
category by mid to late Sunday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 8 15 3 / 20 60 50 30
GCK 19 8 17 5 / 30 60 50 20
EHA 24 12 23 11 / 20 30 30 20
LBL 23 12 20 7 / 20 40 40 20
HYS 17 5 12 -1 / 30 60 40 20
P28 23 9 16 3 / 30 60 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this morning
FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>078-084>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
345 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
...Updated synopsis and short term discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
This evenings upper air analysis showed strong west northwest mid to
upper level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern and central Plains and Ohio Valley. The 250 millibar
analysis showed 120+ knot speed maxes over Wyoming, and moving
onshore into the Pacific Northwest. Another speed max was
approaching the west coast. The 850-700 millibar baroclinic zone
extended from Wyoming to along the Kansas/Nebraska border. At the
surface, a reinforcing shot of arctic air was pushing south through
Nebraska early this morning behind a cold front which has pushed
south through all of western Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Areas of locally dense freezing fog that developed over parts of
central and western Kansas after sunset were propagating southwest
behind the front into the far southwest part of the state early this
morning. The last few runs of the RUC and HRRR visibility progs have
been pretty consistent in moving the fog south and west into
southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles by 12z. This
looks reasonable given the dry air advection that is currently
ongoing from north central into southwest Kansas. The dense fog
advisory goes until 12z and will let it ride but continue to monitor
for any areal or temporal extensions.
Per SREF analysis and water vapor imagery, the first upper speed max
was currently moving into the upper Mississippi Valley early this
morning. The subsequent speed maxes will move out along the Kansas
Nebraska border today and out over Kansas tonight. Associated mid
level frontogenetic forcing will move out across Nebraska and far
northern Kansas this morning and over Kansas tonight. Regional radar
mosaic shows light snow already moving out of Wyoming into the
Nebraska Panhandle and this will continue eastward across northern
Kansas and Nebraska today. The current forecast has chance pops for
light snow along the I-70 corridor today. Think any measurable snow
will be north of the Dodge City forecast area today. The system
moving out tonight should bring some accumulating snow to west
central and parts of southwest and south central Kansas tonight. The
models have been consistent with this so have increased pops well
into the likely category tonight. The NAM is showing a swath of 1-2
inch snowfall generally north of Highway 50 tonight. Have increased
snowfall amounts a little but for now think we will not see enough
to warrant a winter weather advisory.
Temperatures will not rise much, if at all, today given the ongoing
cold air advection. Temperatures tonight should fall well down into
the single digits above zero with a few low teens possible around
Elkhart and Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
Sunday Night through Tuesday:
One last renewed arctic air shot will affect western Kansas during
this time frame...and along with it will be an increased chance for
some light snow. A shortwave trough will be approaching the Colorado
Rockies along the zonal flow pattern late Sunday. Deformation and
convergence will slowly increase along a pre-existing baroclinic
zone around 700mb with the lower-mid troposphere moistening
overnight Sunday Night. Using primarily the ECMWF as guidance in the
forecast, the mid-level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly will move
from Utah into southern Colorado early Monday. Ahead of it, 700mb
frontogenesis will increase, despite the overall westerly component
to the flow at this level. On the mesoscale, there will most likely
be subtleties within the broad baroclinic zone, but these little
nuances are impossible to predict a couple days out, so the forecast
will reflect a general ramp up in POPs late Sunday Night with a
plateau of around 50 POPs for much of the day Monday before
decreasing later in the afternoon once the main body of the
disturbance moves east-southeast of the southwest Kansas region. As
far as snow totals go, we are looking at roughly an 18-hr period of
total accumulations in the 1 to 2 inch range.
Given the clouds and precipitation Monday and the core of the fresh
arctic airmass amidst the region, temperatures will not rise much at
all. We have lowered the maximum temperature 4 or 5 degrees for
most locations across the forecast area, in line with the ECMWF
2-meter temperatures. Monday Night should prove to be very cold with
a fresh coat of snow, however questions about how fast clouds will
clear out will have huge implication on overnight low. We would
likely see widespread temperatures at or below zero, especially
north of the Arkansas River, should low clouds clear out by midnight
or so. The surface high will move off to the east Tuesday, however
the surface flow will still be influence by the high which will be
recirculating cold trajectories despite a south or south-southeast
wind. We have lowered the high forecast across the eastern half of
the forecast area Tuesday by a few degrees, and this may not even be
enough. Meanwhile, out toward the Colorado border (especially
Elkhart), temperatures may approach 40 by late afternoon.
Rest of the work-week:
We will finally begin the slow warming up process, however the
snowpack across much of the region will need to be knocked out quite
a bit before we realize maximum potential based on typical downslope
mix-down scenarios. The Allblend guidance was left untouched for
this forecast, however the general feeling is that the warm-up may
be a bit too ambitious by the guidance and feel these daytime highs
will be lowered in subsequent updates along/east of Highway 283 and
especially toward central Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
IFR to LIFR ceilings will continue at the TAF sites in southwest
and central Kansas through the overnight hours. Visibilities will
stay in the 1/4 to 1/2 mile range at Garden City and Dodge City
with visibilities remaining around 4-6 miles at Hays through the
overnight hours. Conditions should improve somewhat into the MVFR
category by mid to late Sunday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 8 15 3 / 20 60 50 30
GCK 19 8 17 5 / 30 60 50 20
EHA 24 12 23 11 / 20 30 30 20
LBL 23 12 20 7 / 20 40 40 20
HYS 17 5 12 -1 / 30 60 40 20
P28 23 9 16 3 / 30 60 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this morning
FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>078-084>088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
331 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES,
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND PRECIP CHANCES.
A LLVL INVERSION HAS SETUP OVER THE REGION W/TEMPERATURES REALLY
DROPPING OFF IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE RIVERS. TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS COULD BOTTOM OUT IN A RANGE OF 15 TO 20 BELOW BY 7 AM
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES UP SOME. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR
STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AS
IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST HRRR AND THE RAP. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS LLVL MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
BURN OFF AND LIFT AFTER SUNRISE W/THE INVERSION BREAKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RAP MODEL WAS HANDLING THE PRECIP SHIELD
WELL PER 06Z ANALYSIS.
THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE
COLUMN MOISTENING UP THROUGH 500MBS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE FROM NYS. THIS MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO MAKE ITS WAY
UP INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE ESPECIALLY W/THE GFS. THE BEST LIFT AND
ANY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY) ALL TO WAY TO THE COAST.
SNOW RATIOS WILL MAKE SNOWFALL A CHALLENGE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 18-22:1 & QPF LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. ATTM, THE DECISION
HERE WAS TO STAY W/THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THE BEST SNOWFALL
WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND ESPECIALLY THE COAST WHERE TOTALS
BY MONDAY COULD HIT 3-4 INCHES. DECIDED ON NO ADVISORY ATTM SINCE
THIS EVENT WILL STRETCH INTO MONDAY. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD UP AFTER FALLING OFF THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SUCH AS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
COULD DROP BACK TO BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF W/THE INCREASING
CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
EARLY MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AND PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THE MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST
EC TRACKS THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND UP ALONG THE MAINE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS BY FAR AN
OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE NOT
DEVIATED FROM SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM TODAY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH KQPI AND KFVE. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST LATER TONIGHT
W/KBGR AND KBHB SEEING MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR BY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN -SN EARLY MONDAY...THEN MAINLY
VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS
W/SEAS RUNNING 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
107 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
107 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AS READINGS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS ARE DROPPING OFF FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FCST. DECIDED TO DROP THE OVERNIGHT MINS A CATEGORY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH PUTS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN MAINE IN
A RANGE OF 15 TO 20 BELOW BY 12Z. MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES, BUT
STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AND PERHAPS BELOW ZERO IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. RAP AND HRRR
SHOWING SOME LLVL MOISTURE SETTING UP EARLY THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVERS AND VALLEYS IN THE FORM OF FOG OR
STRATUS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
MOST OF THE CLDNSS OVR SRN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD THEN EXIT BY ERLY
SUN AFTN...BEFORE CLDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR WRN AND SRN PTNS OF THE
FA BY SUN EVE AHEAD OF A MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE S/WV FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LKS. IT APPEARS...THAT ANY LGT SN WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR FA
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN NGT. OTHERWISE...AFT CHILLY MORN LOWS...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N...TEMPS SHOULD THEN RECOVER TO SIMILAR HI TEMPS SUN
AS THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STEADIEST SNOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA WHERE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LESSER SNOWS WILL
OCCUR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS THE FIRST LOW IS EITHER IN THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO OR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF GEORGIA. THE SECOND
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE SRN LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP
THE EAST COAST. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE
THUR AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND GEM THOUGH THEY DO NOT SHOW A CLOSED
LOW...INDICATE THAT SOMETHING WILL BE IN THE SAME AREA AS THE
ECMWF. AT THIS TIME THE RIDGE WILL HAVE BUILD EAST OF THE
AREA...THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN
CANADA WILL BE EXTENDED NE TO SW ACROSS QUEBEC...THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO NRN IL. THUR EVNG...THE ECMWF LOW MOVES
NE INTO SW NOVA SCOTIA...THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SOMETHING IN THE SAME AREA...THE TROUGH MOVES SE AND THE LOW OVER
NOVA SCOTIA AND THE TROUGH BEGIN TO INTERACT ACROSS MAINE AND NEW
BRUNSWICK. FRI MRNG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM DIFFER ON THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MOVES THE TROUGH SOUTH TO THE GULF
OF MAINE...WRAPS THE ENERGY FROM THE CURRENT LOW INTO A NEW ONE
OVER BAR HARBOR...THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER LOW OVR NRN
PA...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING THE ORIGINAL LOW NOW WELL EAST OF THE
AREA ENTERING THE WRN CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GEM MAINTAINS THE
ORIGINAL LOW MOVES IT INTO THE MARITIMES...ALSO MAINTAINS THE
TROUGH ACROSS NRN MAINE...BACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO A NEW
LOW OVER LAKE HURON. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...A
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH LA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SAT EVEN THE
LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC...THE FRONT INTO WRN
MAINE...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW MOVES INTO ERN
QUEBEC...THE FRONT MOVES EAST INTO WRN NEW BRUNSWICK.
LOADED THE SUPERBLEND FOR GRIDS. OVRNGT WED THRU THURS LOADED TWO
SUPERBLEND AND 1 ECMWF FOR POPS..THIS WILL GIVE A BIT MORE WEIGHT
TO THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WITHOUT A COMPLETE
CHANGE FROM THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 20 TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 30 PERCENT
OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HRRR HAS AT TIMES
BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP LOW STRATUS ALONG AND NEAR THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER TOWARD MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND WILL
MAINTAIN A VFR FCST ATTM AT THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATER THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD FOR THE NEAR TERM. THE COMBO OF WNW OF 10
TO 15 KT...SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S AND SSTA`S IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S RESULTED IN LGT FZSPY OVR OUR WATERS TNGT INTO ERLY SUN
MORN...AFTERWHICH WINDS DROP ENOUGH FOR FZSPY TO NO LONGER BE AN
ISSUE LATE SUN MORN ONWARD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF OPNL/MOS MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR WINDS...AND WENT ABOUT A HLF FOOT HIGHER THAN WW3 WV
GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
336 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS TO THE SW OF CORE OF ARCTIC AIR SITUATED OVER QUEBEC.
RIBBON OF MUCH STRONGER W FLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE S 2/3 OF THE
CONUS. A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS FASTER FLOW IS
MOVING THRU CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MRNG. ACCOMPANYING PCPN HAS
REACHED AS FAR N AS GRB OR SO...BUT OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT NO HIER THAN 0.10 TO 0.15 INCH IS LIMITING THE IMPACT OVER
UPR MI TO JUST SOME MID CLD DESPITE PRESENCE OF AREA OF ACCOMPANYING
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC. LGT WINDS AND LO PWAT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
FALL BLO ZERO AT MOST PLACES DESPITE THESE CLDS. THERE ARE SOME LK
CLDS NEAR SUPERIOR WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -20C DESPITE LGT NW FEED OF
DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER. THE
MQT RADAR DOES SHOW A FEW HIER RETURNS OVER SCENTRAL LK SUP...SO
THERE ARE PROBABLY SOME ISOLD -SHSN DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES FOR LES.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN AND
ANOTHER DROPPING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LIMITED POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH ARRAY OF SHRTWVS MENTIONED ABOVE AND TEMPS.
TODAY..AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING TO THE S
IS FCST TO MOVE E THIS MRNG AND EXIT THE AREA SOON AFTER SUNRISE. SO
ACCOMPANYING MID CLD COVER SHOULD SHIFT TO THE E AS DRIER MID LVL
AIR FOLLOWS. BUT THE SHRTWV OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO TRACK
INTO SCENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC
ARRIVING THIS AFTN OVER UPR MI. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW
WITH LLVL NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING FIRST DISTURBANCE...
SUSPECT THE IMPACT FOR THE CWA WL BE THE SAME AS WHAT IS HAPPENING
NOW...JUST SOME MID CLD. SO HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE POPS...AT LEAST
AWAY FM LK SUP. THE MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH LK EFFECT PCPN THERE
MAY OR MAY NOT BE. MOST OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING NO PCPN
NEAR THE LK THRU THE DAY...WITH ICE COVER...ABSENCE OF CYC FLOW /IN
FACT SHOWING ACYC FLOW/...AND LLVL DRY ADVECTION SUPPRESSING THIS
ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHE HAND...THE LOWER RES GFS/ECMWF LIGHT QPF
SUGGEST SOME SHSN IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS. THE GFS ICE ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER OVER CENTRAL LK SUP WHILE THE
NAM/GEM INDICATE A COMPLETELY COVERED LK. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
BREAKS IN THE ICE RECENTLY AND THERE ARE AND HAVE BEEN SOME LGT SHSN
AS WELL...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO RES MODELS AND INCLUDE SOME LO CHC
POPS IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS THRU THE DAY AS THE LLVL NW FLOW DROPS
H85 TEMPS TO ARND -23C BY 00Z MON OVER THE W. THIS CAD SHOULD KEEP
MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN YDAY...WITH THE HIER TEMPS OVER THE SCENTRAL
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PROBABLY SOME SUNSHINE BTWN THE SHRTWVS.
TNGT...SHRTWV NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO DROP SEWD AND OVER
UPR MI BY 12Z MON AS WI DISTURBANCE SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER LKS. THIS
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SHRTWVS IS FCST TO MAINTAIN SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC THRU THE NGT...SO THERE WL PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT OF
AT LEAST MID/HI CLD EVEN OVER THE INTERIOR EVEN THOUGH LLVL DRYING
SHOULD PREVENT ANY PCPN THERE. CLOSER TO LK SUP...WL MAINTAIN SOME
LOWER CHC POPS FOR LES WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -24C DESPITE
FCST NEUTRAL/ACYC NW FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER. THE GFS SHOWS
STRONGER LLVL WINDS THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT OUT OF PHASE
SHRTWVS/EXTENSIVE ICE COVER THAT WL LIMIT PRES FALLS OVER THE OPEN
WATER AND SHARPNESS OF THE PRES GRADIENT INDICATE THE WEAKER WINDS
SHOWN BY THE BULK OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THIS
DIFFERENCE IN WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHETHER
WIND CHILLS WL REACH ADVY THRESHOLDS AS SFC TEMPS FALL WELL BLO
ZERO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF. WITH THE WEAKER WINDS...EXPECT
NEITHER THE WIND CHILLS NOR THE WIND SPEEDS WL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ADVY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
AFTER STARTING THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER A COLD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...IT/S DEPARTURE ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WARMER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS (-24C) UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ON
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE OPEN WATER. BUT MODIS SATELLITE FROM
TODAY SHOWS THAT THOSE AREAS ARE VERY LIMITED...BUT THERE WERE
STILL PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OVER THE LAST DAY.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS SHIFTS OF SLIGHT AND CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT...ALONG WITH LIMITED
OPEN WATER...DON/T THINK SNOW WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH...UNLESS SOME
WATER OPENS UP MORE THAN CURRENTLY SEEN. SINCE THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA (CURRENTLY BETWEEN
LAKE WINNIPEG AND HUDSON BAY)...WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER DAYS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEST IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND MID-UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE HIGH SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR...WARMING ALOFT...AND
WEAKENING/BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SNOW CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
DRY RIDGE MOVING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE INLAND
TEMPERATURES REALLY FALL WERE SKIES CLEAR OUT. GOING FORECAST HAS
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER NEAR -20F AND THAT SEEMS
FAIRLY REASONABLE. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THOSE VALUES...SINCE
SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS EVEN HAVE VALUES AROUND -24F AND BASED
OFF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS IT DOESN/T SEEM
TOO UNREASONABLE. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH
FOR WIND CHILLS TO NOSE INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT WITH WINDS
LOOKING TO BE WELL BELOW 10MPH...SHOULD NOT NEED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AND LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
START A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER...BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL...FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS ON THE WHERE THE PIECES OF ENERGY
TRACK...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR SOME ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY TO SWEEP THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA
FOR A WEST TO EAST PUSH OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE CWA.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY AND ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THIS
TIME...THE GFS/GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
INTENSIFYING THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TRACKS A WEAKER LOW FARTHER
SOUTH AND SLOWER THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TRADITIONAL FASTER
GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS USUALLY MERGING AND SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCES...THINK THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE NEAR
ADVISORY SNOWFALL AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
WILL KEEP POPS AT THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...MODELS SHOW A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCE A DRY FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES AS VARIABLE WINDS
SHIFT NW BTWN 08-14Z THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE...IT IS HARD TO FCST VSBY
LOWER THAN VFR AS NW WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG AND SHOULDN/T
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH BLOWING SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THRU MID WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS MOST OF THE TIME.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON MON...WHEN NW WINDS
MAY BE AS HI AS 25 KTS AHEAD OF HI PRES MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STRONGER S-SW WIND UP TO 25 KTS MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ON TUE NIGHT UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HI MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND A LO PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. ALTHOUGH VERY COLD
AIR WILL LINGER THRU TUE...EXPECT LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
SPRAY WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1049 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AMARILLO TAF
UNTIL AROUND 18Z TO 21Z SUNDAY AND AROUND 14Z TO 17Z SUNDAY AT THE
DALHART TAF SITE...BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO IFR OR VLIFR TO IFR AT
THE GUYMON TAF SITE BY 10Z TO 13Z SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG WILL SPREAD WEST AND SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
UPDATE...
ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWING LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DEVELOPING OR SPREADING WEST FROM OFF THE
CAPROCK TO NEAR A TEXAS COUNTY OKLAHOMA TO CLARENDON TEXAS LINE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS AS A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY ONCE
AGAIN BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. ALSO...THE
FREEZING FOG MAY SPREAD FURTHER WEST INTO THE AMARILLO AND CANYON
AREAS AND ANOTHER UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...WILL BRING THE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG AS FAR WEST...FOR THE MOMENT...TO A TEXAS
COUNTY TO CLARENDON LINE AND WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON A FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY WITH THE STIPULATION THAT ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATER ON.
ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY. LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GUYMON TAF SITE AROUND 08Z
TO 11Z SUNDAY...ACROSS THE AMARILLO AND DALHART TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
TO 20 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY WILL BECOME IFR TO MVFR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND DROPPING TO VLIFR TO LIFR AT THE GUYMON TAF SITE AFTER
12Z TO 14Z SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SAT FEB 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY 63 DEGREES AT THE NWS AMARILLO OFFICE...FIRST TIME
AMARILLO HAS BEEN ABOVE 50 OR 60 DEGREES SINCE JANUARY 30. MOST OF
THE AREA IS WARM EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PANHANDLES. THE WARMING IN THESE LOCATIONS IS BEING INHIBITED BY
SNOW PACK...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THESE AREAS AS THEY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT
ISSUE A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE LAST NIGHT
LOCATIONS WITH A 6 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION RECEIVED FOG BUT
MOISTER AREAS DID NOT. MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT TILL WE SEE THE WHITES OF
THE FREEZING FOGS EYES TO SEE WHERE PATCHY FOG MIGHT SET UP.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH IN THE EARLY AM HOURS TOMORROW AND KNOCK
BACK TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN
THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TOMORROW BUT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL STAY DRY. MODELS ARE STILL COMING IN WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS MOST OF OUR AREA DRY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. IF SNOW DOES FALL IN OUR AREA IT LOOKS TO BE VERY
LIGHT.
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE FIFTIES AND SIXTIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER.
&&
$$
11/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
359 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EST SUNDAY...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO WRN TN WITH AREA
OF RETURNS ON RADAR...BUT PER SFC OBS...NOT MUCH OF THIS REACHING
THE GROUND. LATEST HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE WELL...AND THE
00Z ECMWF SNAGGED IT BETTER THAN THE NAM/GFS...WITH THE LOCAL WRF
NOT TOO BAD EITHER. NONETHELESS..THE MODELS SEEM TO FADE THIS
FEATURE AS IT HEADS EAST. HOWEVER...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
WRN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BRING A BETTER CONVERGENT
PATTERN WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT TO THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY. KEPT
POPS HIGHER IN THE NW...THEN SHIFT THEM TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT IN
THE NW NC PIEDMONT. THIS SEEMS TO BE A CASE WHERE THE BEST LIFT
SHIFTS ACROSS THE MTNS OF WV/ALLEGHANYS AND THE ENE INTO NRN
VA...AS UPPER PATTERN SHOWS SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES.
SOUNDINGS FORECASTING MAINLY SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME SUPPORT TO INCLUDE ICE PELLETS
EXISTS...ALTHOUGH SHORT LIVED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW
VA/NW NC THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STAYING UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WRN GREENBRIER TOPPING OUT WITH 2...WHILE REST OF
THE WRN SLOPES WILL GET AN INCH OR SO...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
NC MTNS. MODELS HINT AT EVEN AREAS NORTH OF ROANOKE AND LYNCHBURG
ALONG THE RIDGES COULD SEE A DUSTING TO JUST UNDER AN INCH.
AGAIN...THE CMC/NAM FAVOR CLEARING BEHIND THIS WAVE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS PIEDMONT. LEANED
TOWARD A CLOUDIER SOLUTION...AS THESE MODELS DID NOT PICK
INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE ONGOING SAT TRENDS...SO LEANED MY SKY
COVER FORECAST TOWARD A LOCAL WRF/MOSGUIDE SOLUTION. STILL COULD
SEE ENOUGH SUN IN THE SOUTHEAST TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 50S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HINDER TEMPS. TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE
TRICKY GIVEN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AND TIMING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV TO MID 40S NEW RIVER VALLEY/NC MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ROA-LYH...MID 50S SOUTHSIDE VA...NW NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT.
DECENT ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SEE GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE FAVORING WRN SLOPES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS POSSIBLE WRN GREENBRIER AND
LESS ELSEWHERE THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH A NORFOLK VA
TO ATL GA LINE OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING DUE TO PARALLEL UPPER
FLOW.
SKIES STAY CLOUDY IN THE WEST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME BREAKS
OUT EAST. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS SE WV...TO LOWER
30S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. HOW FAR SOUTH DOES
THIS FRONT GO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS
QUESTIONABLE...CONSIDERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE
UNDER ZONAL FLOW. ALL 00Z MODELS ARE PUSHING THE FRONT DOWN INTO
THE GULF. JUST INLAND AND BEHIND THE FRONT...A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF STATES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN US MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER WAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE FOOT STEPS OF THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. IF
MOISTURE DOES ADVANCE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30 PERCENT) WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
NC/VA BORDER. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER PLAYER TO THIS GAME. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MID WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
THEN WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING COLD AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW TO HAVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW. THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...OUR
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE COLD DRY HIGH. THEREFORE I KEPT
ANY POPS IN THE PERIOD LOW AND TO THE SOUTH.
IT IS THE SECOND STRONGER WAVE THAT HAS ME MORE CONCERN. EVEN
THOUGH THIS WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE GULF STATES...OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE AND WARM NOSE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE P-TYPE
ISSUES FOR THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PER
00Z ECM. SINCE MODELS HAVE A DIFFERENT OPINION OF WHERE THE SECOND
WAVE TRACKS AND BEHAVES...WILL WAIT AND TACKLE THIS PROBLEM AT A
LATER TIME.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE PASSING OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST VARY GREATLY. GFSMOS FOR DANVILLE HAS A HIGH OF 46F WHILE THE
NAMMOS IS COLDER AT 38F. SINCE THE FRONT IS A SLOW MOVER AND A
WEST WIND DEVELOPS QUICKLY...LEANED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
WARMER GFSMOS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. ON TUESDAY...UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. I WENT EVEN COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE
WITH A COLD WEDGE IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST FRIDAY...
BECAUSE OF THE GREAT VARIABILITY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTION...WILL LEAN TOWARDS HPCGUIDE SHAPED AWAY FROM THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF...AND MORE TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRACKS OF THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/CMC MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS
AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE...COMPARED TO GFS BEING SLOWER
AND WARMER WITH MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS WINTER STORM...HARD TO WORK OUT THE EXACT
DETAILS OF TIMING...TRACK AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. IN THIS PROGRESSIVE FLOW...A
COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START
COLD AND SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN...A
COOLING TEND IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EST SATURDAY...
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATE TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE MOUNTAINS. KBLF AND KLWB WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL CROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL KEEP
VFR CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AROUND KDAN AS THIS
WAVE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD AT
KBCB IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE SNOW FROM SATURDAY MORNING
HAS MELTED LEAVING THE GROUND WET. THERE MAY BE PATCHES OF MVFR
FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY
16Z/11AM...BUT NO IMPROVEMENT AT KLWB AND KBLF. THIS SHORT WAVE
PUSHES A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRONT THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT A RETURN OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THANKS TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SAME NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL YIELD DOWNSLOPE CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.
UPSLOPE AREAS MAY OCCASIONALLY HAVE MVFR CLOUDS BUT THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SETUP OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE POSSIBLY THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. SOME MODELS OFFER A
SOLUTION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FOR A LEAST A GENEROUS
PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME. OTHERS DO NOT OFFER SUCH A WET
SOLUTION BUT HAVE PIECES OF ENERGY GIVING GLANCING BLOWS OF
WEATHER AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THIS EVENING, PASSING OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY.
STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST MONDAY MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WEDNESDAY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, TRACKING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA AT LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AROUND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. CONTINUE TO LIKE THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PA. TIMING IN THE LATEST HRRR AND SPC 4KM
WRF INDICATE THE ONSET OF STEADIER PRECIP/SNOW TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA, WITH THE SPC WRF BEING THE
FASTER OF THE TWO. HIGHEST POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
CENTERED AROUND THE 21Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME, AND THIS LOOKS IN LINE
WITH LASTEST GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS, BUT MAX TEMPERATURES
LOOK ON TRACK.
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND THE WEAK SURFACE INFLECTION IT HAS SPAWNED. EXPECT
TODAY TO BE FILLED WITH LOTS OF STRATOCU HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. A BLEND OF THE
MET/MAVMOS LOOKED GOOD THOUGH DID LIKE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV IN
SPOTS SO USED A HEAVIER WEIGHTING FOR HIGHS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO BACK ALL THE WAY AROUND
TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON.
LIKED THE TIMING OFF THE SREF AND NAM FOR POPS TODAY THOUGH DID
SPEED THEM UP A LITTLE JUST GIVEN HOW FLAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS AND
QUICKLY THE WAVE SHOULD PUSH THROUGH. THE OVERALL QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE DOWNWARD BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF NOTHING...
PROBABILISTICALLY SHOWING AT LEAST A TENTH IN MOST SPOTS WITH A
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE BETTER RATIOS, SOMEWHERE AROUND
12-14:1...BETTER RATIOS FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3-4 INCHES
FURTHER NORTH JUST GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND BETTER BANDING
POTENTIAL WITH THE WAVE PASSING OVERHEAD. EXPECTING LESS SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA WITH THE LACK OF QPF AND MARGINAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.
WITH THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM TODAY, AND MOSTLY
SUB-ADVISORY AMOUNTS, WE DID NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DROPPING VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE AT TIMES, BUT FIGURED
THAT A COUPLE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS COULD HANDLE THIS AS WE
TRACK THE BANDS/SQUALLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD RAPIDLY DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO CLEAR.
WINDS TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THE COLD AIR IS
A LITTLE SLOW TO ARRIVE...LOOKS LIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BETTER
OVERNIGHT MIXING DO NOT LOOK TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF
TOO MUCH, THOUGH THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP
WITH THE DECOUPLING PROCESS. USED A HEAVY BLEND OFF THE MAV FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOW-20S IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***RATHER COLD MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A POSSIBLE NOREASTER
EARLY THURSDAY***
500 MB: THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
GENERATE PRECIPITATION HERE FROM TIME TO TIME BEGINNING DURING MID
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THEN NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL
THURSDAY ONWARD.
AUTOMATED CONFIDENCE IMAGERY IS GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS 2M
TEMPS FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THEREAFTER THE 00Z/9 GFS 2M TEMPERATURES
HAVE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AND SO CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS A SLIGHT COLD BIAS IN ITS 2 METER TEMPS AND NCEP ADAPTED
MOS TEMP GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA (SNOW-ICE COVER RELATED?). AM NOT
USING THE ECMWF 2M TEMPS NOR ITS MOS VERBATIM. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO
ACCURATELY HIGHLIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS VERY NICELY
(BETTER THAN THE GFS) BUT ON THOSE SAME NIGHTS..IF THERE IS WIND
IN THE HILLS...THE ECMWF IS THEN TOO COLD AND THE GFS APPEARS TO
BE MORE ACCURATE...AT LEAST RECENTLY.
THE DAILIES IN BRIEF BELOW...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COLD WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND 15 MPH TUESDAY. THE COLDEST READINGS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND OR JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH TO
THE TEENS IN THE FAR SOUTH. THE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE RECORDS
FOR THE DATE. THE WARMER 00Z/9 MET TEMPS WERE USED MONDAY...THE
COLDER MAV MONDAY NIGHT AND 50 50 BLEND OF NCEP MOS WAS USED TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHTS TEMP FCST IS CONTINUITY FROM THE DAYSHIFT YDY AS
THE GFS LOOKED TOO WARM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AS ITS
PREDECESSOR CYCLES REMAINS CONSISTENT IN RACING A NOREASTER UP
THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GEFS IS NOW FASTER
AND WPC BOUGHT INTO THE THE FASTER SOLN AS DID WE. WHILE THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING...THE GREATER UNKNOWNS ARE
HOW MUCH SNOW AND RAIN. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL DETERMINE
THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES AND PTYPE. FOR NOW WE HAVE A MIXED
BAG AND YES...THERE IS A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
WHILE WE DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN...IT IS PART
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR THE MOST PART IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL
BE A FRONT END SNOW EVENT TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTN THURSDAY. WHILE WE MAY WISH MORE
DECISIVE INFORMATION...THE SOLUTIONS ARE TOO VARIED AND SO THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION WORDING. SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH COLD AIR IN
ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NW OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
THE TEMPERATURE FCST WEDNESDAY WAS CONTINUITY FROM YDYS FCST AND
THEN THE WED NIGHT FCST IS THE 0522Z/9 WPC GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH
THE 2M ECMWF TEMP FROM THE 00Z/9 RUN. THE ECMWF HAS THIS AS A
COASTAL HUGGER AND WARMER THAN ANY OTHER RELIABLE MODEL WE USE
FOR OUR AREA. WE EXPECT THE GFS TO CONTINUALLY DRIFT NW AND FASTER
WITH TIME AS DID THE 06Z/9 GFS SOLN WHICH NOW AT LEAST BRINGS QPF
INTO OUR AREA WED NIGHT AND THU... SNOW NW OF I95 AND SNOW TO RAIN
OR MIXED SE OF I95.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PROBABLY A QUIET INTERLUDE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE DEAL WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW I THINK WE NEED TO CONCENTRATE ON THE WED NIGHT-THURSDAY EVENT
BEFORE LOOKING FOR ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND
FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF 5000 FOOT STRATOCU IS PUSHING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS VFR
DECK FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY WHILE A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST- NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE TO BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BY EVENING AND THERE COULD BE A COUPLE HOURS
OF MORE MODERATE SNOWFALL DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE
BEFORE QUICKLY JUMPING BACK UP TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CLIMB BACK TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS
THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. WINDS WILL BACK FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEST
VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THE
CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KT
MONDAY AND 15 KT TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS TO START WITH A CHANCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE DAY AS SNOW SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
WIND MOSTLY EAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH A
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING. POSSIBLE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPING.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS TODAY WITH
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND TURNING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FOR A BIT
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS, THOUGH IT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER IN
THE DELAWARE BAY AND OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AS THE NORTHWEST WINDS
FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. STRONGEST WIND EARLY IN THE DAY FOR WHAT
MAY BECOME ONLY A MARGINAL SCA EVENT.
MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 2O KNOTS. CHANCE
FREEZING SPRAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
BUT FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NW TO N WINDS.
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DEPENDING UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY GALE
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NW LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THAT MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF
BEING WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF RECORD IF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED
WEDNESDAY MORNING FEBRUARY 12. RIGHT NOW WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS
TO REMAIN ABOVE THESE VALUES.
ABE -6 1979
RDG -4 1934
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
9 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT SLOWED DOWN/STALLED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BUILDING
DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A COOL NORTHERLY WINDFLOW WAS BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LATEST RUC 500MB
PROG HAS THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ADVANCING EAST DURING THE DAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING THAT
THE SKIES WERE CLEAR NORTH OF SOUTH BREVARD OSCEOLA AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTHERN PART OF BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA.
MORNING UPDATE WILL INCLUDE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND GRIDS AND TAKING
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHS DUE TO THE COOLER AIR MASS MOVING DOWN
THE PENINSULA.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD INTO THE REGION WL
PRODUCE DRYING ALONG WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON.
REASONABLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE IS EXPECTED
DUE TO IMPROVED SFC HEATING AFTER MORNING FOG AND SOME LOWER
CLOUDS BREAK. SLOWLY VEERING WINDS DURING AFTERNOON WL BRING A
SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS FOR HIGHS. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING A COOLER NIGHT WITH READINGS AVERAGING
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH SOME UPR 40S WEST OF I-4. SOME GROUND FOG WL
DEVELOP EARLY MON BY DAYBREAK...HOWEVER DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
MON-MON NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE AND SKIES
MOSTLY SUNNY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY ALIGNING ITSELF EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND
THE NORTH GOMEX. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
WITH SPEEDS BELOW 10 MPH AS A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT UPPER 50S AND PERHAPS
LOWER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND BARRIER ISLANDS. WINDS WILL
FALL TO LIGHT OR CALM DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT ADD TO THE GRIDS/ZONES JUST YET.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
GULF AND WILL LIE NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK WED
MORNING. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
STILL LIE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST
FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GOMEX. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR CALM WINDS TUE
MORNING BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND THIS TREND GRADUALLY
WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TUE
EVENING WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 5 MPH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE GRADUAL
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP FOR
LATE OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO COVER FOR A STRAY SHOWER
POSSIBILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.
WED-WED NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
DEEP SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TAPERING BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. HAVE ADDED 40 TO 50 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF STILL DISAGREE WITH
FEATURE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH AS THE SURFACE LOW RACES NORTHEAST UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHOWER
WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW LEAVING ABSENT THUNDER MENTION.
EXPECT SOUTHEAST EARLY MORNING WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST OR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHS ON WED PRE-FRONTAL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80
DEGREES TO LOWER 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE FROM NEAR ORLANDO AND
SOUTHWARD. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY START TO INFILTRATE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH VERY LATE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH 60 DEGREE
READINGS SOUTH OF HERE EXPECTED.
THU-SAT...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON THU AS
THE LATEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILL
KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES FOR THU WITH MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING THE AREA STILL. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
DOMINATE ON THU. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES ON THU/FRI...ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT INTO SAT. WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST FRI AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THU GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
FRI-SAT WITH SEASONAL HIGHS FRI AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR SAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...THE BKN-OVC VFR SKIES FROM KMLB SOUTH BECOME FEW-SCT IN
THE AFTERNOON. NO FOG ISSUES THIS MORNING JUST LIFR/IFR CEILINGS
THAT LIFTED AROUND 13Z.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUOY 009 WAS
RECORDING NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 5 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO
NEARSHORE SCRIPPS BUOYS WERE RECORDING 2 TO 4 FEET. THE NORTHERLY
WIND PUSHING AGAINST THE GULF STREAM WILL GENERATE SEAS TO 6 FEET IN
AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
WATER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
MEASURED SEA HGHTS AT OUTER BUOYS ARE BELOW 6 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER COUNTERING WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WL LIKELY
PRODUCE HIGHER SEAS NEAR THE GULF STREAM THROUGH LATE MORNING. WL
KEEP MENTION OF CAUTION FOR THE GULFSTREAM IN THE MORNING PKG.
ELSEWHERE SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE NEAR WATERS AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING.
MON-THU...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUE AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GOMEX.
THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE ON WED INTO EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS THRU WED
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND SPEEDS 15-17 KTS WED AFTERNOON OFFSHORE...POTENTIALLY
INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS WED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS TO HOW STRONG THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WED OVERNIGHT INTO THU DUE TO POOR MODEL
CONSISTENCY HERE.
SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT INTO TUE...2-3 FT TUE NIGHT...INCREASING AGAIN
TO 3-5 FT WED AFTERNOON...4-6 FT WED NIGHT OFFSHORE AND POTENTIALLY
5-8 FT OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET INTO THU. AGAIN CONFIDENCE
IS A LITTLE LOW LATER IN THE PERIOD FOR THE HIGHER SEAS. AT LEAST
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS SEEM LIKELY AROUND THIS STORM SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY SCA CONDITIONS.
DRIER CONDITIONS MON-TUE...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WED AND
THU. SHOWERS MID-WEEK WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING AND FAIRLY QUICK. THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THAT LATER SHIFTS MAY ADD ISOLD THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR LATE WED AND EARLY THU.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MON...DRIER CONDITIONS ON MON MAY ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR A FEW
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWARD FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY.
DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE RATHER POOR DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 48 73 51 / 10 0 0 10
MCO 73 52 77 53 / 10 0 0 10
MLB 73 56 76 57 / 10 0 0 10
VRB 75 55 77 56 / 10 0 0 10
LEE 71 50 75 51 / 10 0 0 10
SFB 72 51 76 52 / 10 0 0 10
ORL 72 53 76 54 / 10 0 0 10
FPR 75 57 77 57 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
557 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW AT THIS
TIME IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER. FURTHER
SOUTH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING. GOING BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO
MY SOUTH AND THE 12Z DDC SOUNDING...SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
NEAR THE DENDRITIC ZONE WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ABOVE THIS.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH WHAT MODEL SOUNDINGS HAD INDICATED.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN SNOW BAND EXPECT WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON TO
CONTINUE WHICH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
AFTER THIS BAND OF SNOW LEAVES...MESOSCALE OUTPUT INDICATING
LITTLE IF ANY MORE SNOW WILL FALL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND NOT TO CHANGE THAT...EXPECT
THE FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
ADJUSTED MAXES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
THE WINDS PER TRENDS AND LATEST RUC WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT IS
CATCHING THIS THE BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MONDAY...HOW COLD TO MAKE IT TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY/RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PACIFIC. BECAUSE THE UPPER FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST
THAT LEAVES A FAST AND NEARLY ZONAL FROM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE WERE SOME MODERATION IN THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS AS SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW DID OCCUR. HOWEVER ANOTHER VERY
COLD AIR MASS IN PUSHING THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS ARE NOT GETTING THE POSITION OF THE MAIN
JETS...THE ONE OVER OUR AREA RIGHT NOW AND THE ONE COMING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL AT THIS TIME THE GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING
THE BEST. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WAS DOING BETTER IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING THE SAME PROBLEMS IN
POSITION OF FEATURES AS AT THE JET LEVEL. MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND EAST WITH FEATURES. OVERALL THE GFS AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE ECMWF IS
DOING WAY BETTER THAN EVERYTHING ELSE ON THE SURFACE PATTERN...
ESPECIALLY THE LOCATION OF THIS CURRENT COLD SURGE AND THE SURFACE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST JET
STARTS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE DAY. THIS JET SEGMENT RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH BY 18Z AND IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THEN. THIS IS AT THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS. THE BRUNT OF LIFT LOOKS TO BE OUR NORTH. MODEL DEPICTION
LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTH
AND THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO NO LIFT IS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE MORE OF A PROBLEM TODAY. MODELS NOT AS
SATURATED IN THE COLUMN AS WAS SHOWN TODAY. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE IT
LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW IS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MY AREA ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE ICE IN THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY DOWN LOW...BUT MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WARM LAYER NOT TOO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. ALSO THE THIS
AFTERNOON THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LIFT OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIGHT AND COULD BE A
MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE RISE. PROBLEM IS MODELS LOOK TO BE STARTING
OUT TOO COLD. HOWEVER DID TEND GO TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS INITIAL
COUPLET MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG PV ANOMALY
APPROACHES DURING THE EVENING. MESOSCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
ORGANIZED. ICE LOOKS TO GET INTO THE COLUMN WITH THETA-E LAPSE
RATES SO SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE PHASE. FAVORED AREA FOR THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST HALF. MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH LATE IN THE NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH DUE TO THICK CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AS STATED ABOVE FIRST COUPLET APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE MODELS DEVELOP A
SECONDARY NORTHERN JET STREAK JUST TO OUR NORTH AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE DAY. ANOTHER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTHWEST
OF OUR AREA AT 12Z WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK COUPLET TO OUR WEST. THIS
NORTHERN JET STREAK/RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. SO INCREASED POPS TO A LOW CHANCE IN THE MORNING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT IS STARTING MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA. SHOULD HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE WINDS SO
LITTLE CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THERE LOOKS TO BE LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE EARLY SO HAVE A MENTION
OF FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. BECAUSE OF VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND A
SNOWFIELD...THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED A FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO COLD.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET APPROACHES THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE
WESTERN THIRD TO HALF BY 06Z. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY MOVE
THIS FEATURE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
AFFECT SOME PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT...
MAINLY EAST. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL DRY
LAYER. SO WILL ONLY EXPECT A THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WITH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD REMAINING DRY.
AIR MASS WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS SPREADING OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. AT FIRST GLANCE THE NWP APPEARS TO WARM. THE 2
METER TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND THEY DID DO BETTER
YESTERDAY IN A SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS ONCE. ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXES WITH THE COOLEST IN THE EAST AND WARMEST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN US WITH WESTERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO NW
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MEAN STORM TRACK REMAINING ALONG THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL ON PAST
MODEL RUNS TO EVEN HINT AT LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES...HOWEVER EVEN IT HAS
TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT. GFS/GEFS/GEM ALL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
WEAKER SHORTWAVES (AND LESS OF AN IMPACT IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS OVER
OUR CWA AS A RESULT). THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND BY THE LATEST ECMWF
TO KEEP BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS FURTHER NORTH (IN LINE WITH OTHER
GUIDANCE)...WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY IMPACT OF THESE TROUGH PASSAGES...
AND KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE. AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN NON
MEASURABLE PRECIP HINTED AT BY ECMWF THU NIGHT-FRI (WHICH I HAVE VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN BASED ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN) IT LOOKS LIKE WE
ARE ABOUT TO ENTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON WED IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
FOR KGLD...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. FROM 18Z TO 06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. FROM NEAR 06Z TO THE END OF THE PERIOD...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR KMCK...PREVAILING CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WILL BE MVFR. HOWEVER
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND SNOW WILL OCCUR. FROM 18Z TO
06Z MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR
AROUND 06Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
552 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Areas of locally dense freezing fog that developed over parts of
central and western Kansas after sunset were propagating southwest
behind the front into the far southwest part of the state early this
morning. The last few runs of the RUC and HRRR visibility progs have
been pretty consistent in moving the fog south and west into
southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles by 12z. This
looks reasonable given the dry air advection that is currently
ongoing from north central into southwest Kansas. The dense fog
advisory goes until 12z and will let it ride but continue to monitor
for any areal or temporal extensions.
Per SREF analysis and water vapor imagery, the first upper speed max
was currently moving into the upper Mississippi Valley early this
morning. The subsequent speed maxes will move out along the Kansas
Nebraska border today and out over Kansas tonight. Associated mid
level frontogenetic forcing will move out across Nebraska and far
northern Kansas this morning and over Kansas tonight. Regional radar
mosaic shows light snow already moving out of Wyoming into the
Nebraska Panhandle and this will continue eastward across northern
Kansas and Nebraska today. The current forecast has chance pops for
light snow along the I-70 corridor today. Think any measurable snow
will be north of the Dodge City forecast area today. The system
moving out tonight should bring some accumulating snow to west
central and parts of southwest and south central Kansas tonight. The
models have been consistent with this so have increased pops well
into the likely category tonight. The NAM is showing a swath of 1-2
inch snowfall generally north of Highway 50 tonight. Have increased
snowfall amounts a little but for now think we will not see enough
to warrant a winter weather advisory.
Temperatures will not rise much, if at all, today given the ongoing
cold air advection. Temperatures tonight should fall well down into
the single digits above zero with a few low teens possible around
Elkhart and Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
A weak shortwave trough will move through the Central Rockies along
the zonal flow late Sunday. This shortwave will then move through
Kansas on Monday. Convergence and mid level moisture will increase
as this feature approaches. Mostly cloudy skies are anticipated
throughout the day Monday with light to moderate snow showers.
Precipitation chances end from west to east Monday evening into
Monday night. Snow totals remain around 1 to 2 inches across the
area. However, a few areas across west central and south central
Kansas could see over 2 inches by the time the system exits
the area. Surrounding offices and DDC have decided to not go with a
winter weather advisory at this time and have the day shift see what
the next model run suggests. Cloudy skies should continue Monday
night with some clearing possible across west central Kansas towards
sunrise. Winds will generally be from a northeasterly direction
Monday as high pressure builds into the Plains. With the cloud cover
and shot of cold air advection across the area, temperatures Monday
are not expected to increase much from the morning lows. Highs
Monday are forecasted to range from the lower teens across central
Kansas to lower 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Lows Tuesday
morning are expected to range from the negative single digits across
central Kansas to around 10 degrees across far southwestern Kansas.
However, if more clearing occurs overnight, temperatures could end
up lower than what the current forecast depicts.
The dome of high pressure moves east of the area on Tuesday shifting
winds to the southwest. A few low level clouds may continue in the
morning across south central Kansas Tuesday morning. Otherwise
expect partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. The Central High
Plains will then be stuck in between an upper level ridge across the
western US and an upper level long wave trough across the eastern
United states throughout the remainder of the forecast period. A few
weak shortwaves are progged to move north of the area, but do not
look to bring any precipitation across southwest Kansas at this
time. Only a few clouds are expected to be observed throughout this
period with dry conditions. Winds will generally be from the west
but shift slightly to the north or south as the aforementioned
shortwaves move north of southwest Kansas. We will finally begin the
slow warming up process Tuesday through Saturday, however the
snowpack across much of the region will need to be knocked out quite
a bit before we realize maximum potential based on typical downslope
mix-down scenarios.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
IFR conditions will be found across the GCK and DDC terminals for
the next couple of hours due to lowered visibilities. Thereafter,
MVFR conditions look to prevail for the remainder of the day with
overcast conditions AOA015. Winds will generally be from the
northeast around 10 knots shifting to more of an easterly
direction this afternoon. The chance of snow and lowered
visibilities is likely this evening as the next system moves in
from the west. However, I have left the mention of it out of the
TAFs since it is more than 6 hours out of TAF issuance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 8 15 3 / 20 60 60 20
GCK 19 8 17 5 / 30 60 50 20
EHA 24 12 23 11 / 20 30 30 20
LBL 23 12 20 7 / 20 40 40 20
HYS 17 5 12 -1 / 30 60 40 20
P28 23 9 16 3 / 30 60 60 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this morning
FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>078-084>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
514 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Northwest flow is seen to persist on the 09Z water vapor imagery.
Profiler data suggest there are a few weak waves within the flow and
think this is the main reason for the areas of light snow moving
across northern KS early this morning. All of the model guidance
continues to point towards a weak band of snow moving across north
central and northeast KS through the day today. This appears to be
driven mainly be mid level frontogenesis and possibly some weak
vorticity advection. Since there is not much disagreement in models,
have cautiously bumped up pops with a narrow axis of likely pops
from Concordia to Topeka. The progressive nature of the snow and
little or no instability suggests amounts will only be around an
inch.
Surface obs show the latest cold front has pushed through the
forecast area and we are seeing dewpoint temps slowly fall. Think
this dry air advection will eventually cause the light freezing mist
or freezing drizzle across east central KS to come to an end over
the next few hours. However temps remain relatively mild behind the
immediate wind shift. Because of this have bumped today`s highs up a
couple degrees thinking the better cold air advection will occur
late in the day and this evening as the arctic ridge really starts
to build in. Generally have highs close to or a degree warmer than
current readings. With overcast skies and a north wind, I don`t
expect temps to see much of a diurnal warm up. So have nearly steady
temps for most of the day.
Tonight, models suggest another weak wave will move through the
area. Although it looks like the better frontogenesis will have set
up further south with the band of snow more likely across central
and southern KS. Nevertheless will continue with a chance POPs
across the southwestern portions of the forecast area. Continued
cold air advection as the next arctic ridge builds into the central
plains should push lows Monday morning down into the single digits.
May need to watch out for some wind chills as north winds remain up
around 5 MPH. At this point wind chill readings remain above
advisory criteria of -15F.
Wolters
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Behind the surface cold front, another reinforcing source of lift is
progged to quickly translate eastward from the Colorado Rockies on
Monday. Cross sections and profilers suggest the majority of the
frontogenetical forcing coinciding with the dendritic ice growth is
centered in the 700-500 MB layer. The saturated column remains well
below 0C with snow being the primary precip type. Based on the
consensus of models tracking the trough axis through central Kansas,
light snow is possible over portions of north central and east
central areas. Best chances were kept south of Interstate 70 during
the morning and early afternoon, gradually tapering off by the
evening. The meager amounts of moisture and short duration of
maximized lift with this system suggest near a half of an inch or
less. The cloud cover and steady cold advection from the 1040 MB
arctic ridge hold h85 temps between 10 and 12C below zero at 12Z.
This should drop highs back down into the teens.
As the ridge axis edges eastward Tuesday, temperatures begin near 0
degrees F before the slow warm up commences. Surface flow becomes
southerly as a thermal axis builds over Colorado. Within the very
western periphery of the ridge by afternoon, highs should recover
to the lower 20s across the area. As this thermal axis begins to
migrate eastward Wednesday/Thursday, guidance begins to differ on
upper flow pattern resulting in contrasting temperatures. The
GFS/ECMWF on Wednesday try to bring a weak and progressive wave
southeast across the region. Although consistent for this run, I am
not inclined to add precip chances just yet until better consistency
between runs is seen. Behind the departing surface trough, a cold
front passes southeast Wednesday-Wednesday evening time frame. The
recent ECMWF is trending as the outlier, bringing a narrow corridor
of much colder air behind the front, while other guidance depicts a
embedded trough developing over the northern plains, shunting the
colder air eastward. While the ECMWF cannot be completely ruled out,
have kept with the consensus blend for now; hesitant to increase
temperatures Wednesday-Thursday. For now middle 30s are reasonable
for Wednesday highs, increasing to low 40s on Thursday as the h85
thermal axis spreads across the area.
On Friday, another strong, but narrow shortwave trough dips
southeast into the Mississippi Valley. Decided to remove precip
chances for Friday as confidence is too low with both GFS and ECMWF
depicting the precip to develop further north and east. Kept highs
in the 40s on Friday instead of increasing further, as cloud cover
from the upper wave may hinder the warmer bias. Lastly on Saturday,
winds begin to shift back towards the north as a cold front enters
from Nebraska. Timing appears late in the day, still allowing for
highs to reach the low to middle 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 514 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Dry air advection has started to erode away at the MVFR CIGS.
However think MVFR conditions may move back in with models still
showing a band of light snow forming near the terminals. Until the
band forms, do not have enough confidence to mention IFR
conditions, but if the RAP is correct there may be some due to
moderate snowfall. This will need to be monitored. Otherwise
think conditions will generally be improving due to continued dry
air advection once the band of snow moves east. Overnight, models
are showing the better frontogenesis setting up to the southwest of
the terminals, so will not mention any snow overnight and think
VFR conditions will prevail. This is contingent on the second band
of snow remaining to the southwest.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
612 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
607 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING. THIS IN RESPONSE TO
35KT JET STREAK AT 700MBS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ON THE IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY W/A BAND OF ENHANCED CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. THESE CLOUDS WILL PULL OUT THIS
MORNING W/SUNSHINE RETURNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
SW TO NE. STRONG LLVL INVERSION AS SEEN FROM THE LATEST LAPS
SOUNDINGS HAS SETUP. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT EVEN MORE
W/READINGS ATTM ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS NEAR 20
BELOW W/EVEN 10-15 AROUND THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND THE CARIBOU-
PRESQUE ISLE REGION.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LLVL MOISTURE THIS MORNING.
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BURN OFF AND LIFT AFTER SUNRISE W/THE
INVERSION BREAKING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL
OF SNOW UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RAP MODEL WAS HANDLING THE
PRECIP SHIELD WELL PER 06Z ANALYSIS.
THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE
COLUMN MOISTENING UP THROUGH 500MBS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE FROM NYS. THIS MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO MAKE ITS WAY
UP INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE ESPECIALLY W/THE GFS. THE BEST LIFT AND
ANY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS(SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY) ALL TO WAY TO THE COAST.
SNOW RATIOS WILL MAKE SNOWFALL A CHALLENGE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 18-22:1 & QPF LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. ATTM, THE DECISION
HERE WAS TO STAY W/THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THE BEST SNOWFALL
WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND ESPECIALLY THE COAST WHERE TOTALS
BY MONDAY COULD HIT 3-4 INCHES. DECIDED ON NO ADVISORY ATTM SINCE
THIS EVENT WILL STRETCH INTO MONDAY. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD UP AFTER FALLING OFF THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SUCH AS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
COULD DROP BACK TO BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF W/THE INCREASING
CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
EARLY MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AND PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THE MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST
EC TRACKS THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND UP ALONG THE MAINE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS BY FAR AN
OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE NOT
DEVIATED FROM SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM TODAY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH KQPI AND KFVE. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST LATER TONIGHT
W/KBGR AND KBHB SEEING MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR BY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN -SN EARLY MONDAY...THEN MAINLY
VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS
W/SEAS RUNNING 2-3 FT RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
703 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS TO THE SW OF CORE OF ARCTIC AIR SITUATED OVER QUEBEC.
RIBBON OF MUCH STRONGER W FLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE S 2/3 OF THE
CONUS. A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS FASTER FLOW IS
MOVING THRU CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MRNG. ACCOMPANYING PCPN HAS
REACHED AS FAR N AS GRB OR SO...BUT OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT NO HIER THAN 0.10 TO 0.15 INCH IS LIMITING THE IMPACT OVER
UPR MI TO JUST SOME MID CLD DESPITE PRESENCE OF AREA OF ACCOMPANYING
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC. LGT WINDS AND LO PWAT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
FALL BLO ZERO AT MOST PLACES DESPITE THESE CLDS. THERE ARE SOME LK
CLDS NEAR SUPERIOR WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -20C DESPITE LGT NW FEED OF
DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER. THE
MQT RADAR DOES SHOW A FEW HIER RETURNS OVER SCENTRAL LK SUP...SO
THERE ARE PROBABLY SOME ISOLD -SHSN DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES FOR LES.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN AND
ANOTHER DROPPING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LIMITED POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH ARRAY OF SHRTWVS MENTIONED ABOVE AND TEMPS.
TODAY..AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING TO THE S
IS FCST TO MOVE E THIS MRNG AND EXIT THE AREA SOON AFTER SUNRISE. SO
ACCOMPANYING MID CLD COVER SHOULD SHIFT TO THE E AS DRIER MID LVL
AIR FOLLOWS. BUT THE SHRTWV OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO TRACK
INTO SCENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC
ARRIVING THIS AFTN OVER UPR MI. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW
WITH LLVL NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING FIRST DISTURBANCE...
SUSPECT THE IMPACT FOR THE CWA WL BE THE SAME AS WHAT IS HAPPENING
NOW...JUST SOME MID CLD. SO HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE POPS...AT LEAST
AWAY FM LK SUP. THE MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH LK EFFECT PCPN THERE
MAY OR MAY NOT BE. MOST OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING NO PCPN
NEAR THE LK THRU THE DAY...WITH ICE COVER...ABSENCE OF CYC FLOW /IN
FACT SHOWING ACYC FLOW/...AND LLVL DRY ADVECTION SUPPRESSING THIS
ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHE HAND...THE LOWER RES GFS/ECMWF LIGHT QPF
SUGGEST SOME SHSN IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS. THE GFS ICE ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER OVER CENTRAL LK SUP WHILE THE
NAM/GEM INDICATE A COMPLETELY COVERED LK. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
BREAKS IN THE ICE RECENTLY AND THERE ARE AND HAVE BEEN SOME LGT SHSN
AS WELL...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO RES MODELS AND INCLUDE SOME LO CHC
POPS IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS THRU THE DAY AS THE LLVL NW FLOW DROPS
H85 TEMPS TO ARND -23C BY 00Z MON OVER THE W. THIS CAD SHOULD KEEP
MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN YDAY...WITH THE HIER TEMPS OVER THE SCENTRAL
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PROBABLY SOME SUNSHINE BTWN THE SHRTWVS.
TNGT...SHRTWV NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO DROP SEWD AND OVER
UPR MI BY 12Z MON AS WI DISTURBANCE SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER LKS. THIS
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SHRTWVS IS FCST TO MAINTAIN SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC THRU THE NGT...SO THERE WL PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT OF
AT LEAST MID/HI CLD EVEN OVER THE INTERIOR EVEN THOUGH LLVL DRYING
SHOULD PREVENT ANY PCPN THERE. CLOSER TO LK SUP...WL MAINTAIN SOME
LOWER CHC POPS FOR LES WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -24C DESPITE
FCST NEUTRAL/ACYC NW FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER. THE GFS SHOWS
STRONGER LLVL WINDS THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT OUT OF PHASE
SHRTWVS/EXTENSIVE ICE COVER THAT WL LIMIT PRES FALLS OVER THE OPEN
WATER AND SHARPNESS OF THE PRES GRADIENT INDICATE THE WEAKER WINDS
SHOWN BY THE BULK OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THIS
DIFFERENCE IN WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHETHER
WIND CHILLS WL REACH ADVY THRESHOLDS AS SFC TEMPS FALL WELL BLO
ZERO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF. WITH THE WEAKER WINDS...EXPECT
NEITHER THE WIND CHILLS NOR THE WIND SPEEDS WL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ADVY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
AFTER STARTING THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER A COLD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...IT/S DEPARTURE ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WARMER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS (-24C) UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ON
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE OPEN WATER. BUT MODIS SATELLITE FROM
TODAY SHOWS THAT THOSE AREAS ARE VERY LIMITED...BUT THERE WERE
STILL PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OVER THE LAST DAY.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS SHIFTS OF SLIGHT AND CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT...ALONG WITH LIMITED
OPEN WATER...DON/T THINK SNOW WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH...UNLESS SOME
WATER OPENS UP MORE THAN CURRENTLY SEEN. SINCE THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA (CURRENTLY BETWEEN
LAKE WINNIPEG AND HUDSON BAY)...WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER DAYS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEST IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND MID-UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE HIGH SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR...WARMING ALOFT...AND
WEAKENING/BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SNOW CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
DRY RIDGE MOVING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE INLAND
TEMPERATURES REALLY FALL WERE SKIES CLEAR OUT. GOING FORECAST HAS
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER NEAR -20F AND THAT SEEMS
FAIRLY REASONABLE. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THOSE VALUES...SINCE
SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS EVEN HAVE VALUES AROUND -24F AND BASED
OFF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS IT DOESN/T SEEM
TOO UNREASONABLE. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH
FOR WIND CHILLS TO NOSE INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT WITH WINDS
LOOKING TO BE WELL BELOW 10MPH...SHOULD NOT NEED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AND LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
START A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER...BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL...FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS ON THE WHERE THE PIECES OF ENERGY
TRACK...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR SOME ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY TO SWEEP THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA
FOR A WEST TO EAST PUSH OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE CWA.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY AND ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THIS
TIME...THE GFS/GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
INTENSIFYING THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TRACKS A WEAKER LOW FARTHER
SOUTH AND SLOWER THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TRADITIONAL FASTER
GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS USUALLY MERGING AND SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCES...THINK THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE NEAR
ADVISORY SNOWFALL AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
WILL KEEP POPS AT THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...MODELS SHOW A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCE A DRY FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
COLD NW FLOW AND PASSING DISTURBANCES WL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLD
THIS FCST PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME GENERALLY LGT SHSN...THE INTENSITY
OF WHICH WL BE LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE ICE ON LK SUP AND RELATIVELY DRY
LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH THIS DRY AIR WL CAUSE
PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE UNDER
FAIRLY LO INVRN. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THRU MID WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS MOST OF THE TIME.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON MON...WHEN NW WINDS
MAY BE AS HI AS 25 KTS AHEAD OF HI PRES MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STRONGER S-SW WIND UP TO 25 KTS MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ON TUE NIGHT UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HI MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND A LO PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. ALTHOUGH VERY COLD
AIR WILL LINGER THRU TUE...EXPECT LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
SPRAY WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1000 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS
LED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NWS ILN FORECAST AREA. WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH (WHERE COLD
ADVECTION IS BEGINNING) HAS LED TO SOME SMALL AREAS OF
ENHANCEMENT. ONE BAND THAT SET UP ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA PRODUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE AND QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO (EVEN UP TO THREE) INCHES. ASIDE FROM JUST
THE SNOW...VISIBILITIES ARE LOW AROUND THE AREA ANYWAY...WITH SOME
MIST OR FOG ALSO PRESENT. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE
SATURATED AS THE SNOW HAS BEGUN...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO HAVE
ENDED.
THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL OHIO QUITE NICELY...AND SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WERE MINOR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY SNOWFALL IS NOW
ENTERING THE ILN CWA...THOUGH FLURRIES ARE NOTED ON SURFACE OBS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF INDIANA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL START OUT THE NEAR TERM. SNOW EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN CLEAR OFF TO THE
EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF
I-70 WHERE FORCING IS A BIT BETTER AND SNOW MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES THERE. FURTHER SOUTH SNOW WILL ONLY
OCCUR FOR A BRIEF TIME AND MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS HEADING SOUTH WITH ONLY A
DUSTING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS FORECAST CLOSE TO MOS
CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
IMPULSE TONIGHT SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS COLDER GFS MOS. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND
EVEN JUST LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND
AMPLIFICATION OF SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SYSTEM PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS
TIMING UNCERTAINTY WHETHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MODERATE ALTHOUGH STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS
CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING TO THE
MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE IFR TO LIFR
CATEGORIES THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
ADDITIONAL LOWER CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES KCVG
AND KLUK DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
848 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
.UPDATE...
A quick forecast update was sent out to bring current temperatures
back in line with recent trends. Temperatures remain near freezing
along the I-10 corridor with a mixture of 30s and 40s across most of
the remaining counties. However, the leading edge of a strong cold
front has moved into the Big Country, dropping temperatures to near
30 degrees across Haskell, Throckmorton, and Shackelford Counties.
We continue to receive reports of freezing fog across this area but
as temperatures slowly warm, the potential for additional ice
accumulations will decrease. Visibilities should slowly improve so
no dense fog advisory will be issued. I also increased sky cover to
account for the increase in high clouds. Max temps were left alone
for now but I`ll continue to watch the progress of the cold front
and adjust forecast temperatures as needed.
Johnson
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected today at the TAF sites. An initial
cold front will sag south to KABI 17Z-18Z, resulting in a shift
to northeast winds 5-10 KT. Any fog this morning and low cloud
cover today are expected to remain north of Abilene. For the
other TAF sites, winds today will be generally southwest at
6-12 KT. A reinforced cold front will push south across central and
southern sections of West Central Texas tonight. The front should
arrive at KSJT 02-03Z, and should reach the Interstate 10 corridor
07Z-08Z. Winds will shift to the northeast with the frontal passage.
A degradation of conditions from VFR to IFR and possibly LIFR is
expected, from north to south tonight. This will occur as low
cloud cover expands to the south behind the front, with areas of
drizzle and freezing drizzle developing.
19
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A nearly stationary surface boundary extends from the eastern Texas
Panhandle south to just northeast of Jayton, then east across
Haskell and Throckmorton Counties. Temperatures are colder behind
east/north of this boundary, where low cloudiness has filled in with
areas of freezing fog. A strong cold front is moving south across
Kansas. The NAM12 and RUC13 models appear to have the best handle on
this boundary...and have it sagging south as a cold front to the
Interstate 20 corridor by 11 AM to Noon, and then drifting a little
farther south early this afternoon. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
strong cold front will quickly move south today, entering the Big
Country this afternoon and overtaking the lead boundary by late
afternoon or evening.
Carrying the inherited mention of fog early this morning across the
area roughly north of a Rotan to Albany line, with freezing fog in
the northern parts of Haskell and Throckmorton Counties where
temperatures are at or just below freezing. With the marginally
freezing temperatures and visibility with the fog to stay above one
mile, not expecting any road ice problems this morning aross that
area. Low cloud cover will be persistent through the day today
across Haskell and Throckmorton counties.
Temperature forecast today is tricky across the Big Country (area
along/north of Interstate 20) with the initial frontal boundary.
Made reductions across that area, where highs should be reached
early this afternoon before temperatures level off and then slowly
drop. Highs across that area are expected to range from the upper
30s/near 40 in Haskell and Throckmorton Counties, to the mid to
upper 50s along Interstate 20 and 60s just south of I-20. Farther to
the south, temperatures will be warm again today, with afternoon
highs in the 70s to near 80 with mostly sunny skies.
This evening and tonight, the reinforced cold front will push south
through our central and southern counties, reaching the Interstate
10 corridor by 2 AM. Model boundary layer moisture fields indicate
extensive low cloud cover developing south across West Central Texas
behind the cold front, with areas of drizzle developing. With strong
cold air advection, temperatures will drop to below freezing tonight
across our northern and central counties, to the mid/upper 30s along
and south of Interstate 10. With a weak overrunning pattern setting
up and given the extent of boundary layer moistening, carrying areas
of drizzle and freezing drizzle tonight until mid-morning Monday,
with freezing drizzle mentioned where temperatures drop below
freezing.
19
LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
.Winter precipitation possible Monday night and Tuesday...
A cold surface ridge will be entrenched across the area Monday
into Tuesday with temperatures remaining well below normal. An
upper level trough will approach the area on Monday and move
across the area on Tuesday. Still looks like the best chance
for precipitation will be on Tuesday when lift from the upper
trough will be greatest. Temperatures will be cold Monday and
Tuesday with highs both days in the 30s across much of the area
with the exception of far southern counties where some low to
mid 40s are expected. Temperatures will fall into the 20s areawide
Monday night.
Made only minor changes to the forecast Monday night and Tuesday,
mainly for precipitation type. Model forecast soundings continue
to show a substantial warm layer aloft for much of this time
period and a lack of moisture within the dendritic growth zone.
This type of profile will favor a combination of freezing rain and
sleet Monday night into Tuesday morning, with rain across southern
sections and a winter mix across northern sections by Tuesday
afternoon. Profiles due appear a bit more favorable for some snow
to mix in mainly north of I-20 on Tuesday. At the present time,
precipitation amounts are expected to be very light for this
event, generally one tenth inch or less water equivalent with
only minor snow and ice accumulations.
Dry and warmer weather returns to the area Wednesday through
Saturday with above normal temperatures through the period. The
only mentionable feature will be a weak front on Saturday, with
only slightly cooler temperatures into Sunday.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 25 36 23 37 / 5 10 10 20 30
San Angelo 79 30 41 26 39 / 0 10 10 20 30
Junction 79 37 45 29 42 / 0 10 20 20 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected today at the TAF sites. An initial
cold front will sag south to KABI 17Z-18Z, resulting in a shift
to northeast winds 5-10 KT. Any fog this morning and low cloud
cover today are expected to remain north of Abilene. For the
other TAF sites, winds today will be generally southwest at
6-12 KT. A reinforced cold front will push south across central and
southern sections of West Central Texas tonight. The front should
arrive at KSJT 02-03Z, and should reach the Interstate 10 corridor
07Z-08Z. Winds will shift to the northeast with the frontal passage.
A degradation of conditions from VFR to IFR and possibly LIFR is
expected, from north to south tonight. This will occur as low
cloud cover expands to the south behind the front, with areas of
drizzle and freezing drizzle developing.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A nearly stationary surface boundary extends from the eastern Texas
Panhandle south to just northeast of Jayton, then east across
Haskell and Throckmorton Counties. Temperatures are colder behind
east/north of this boundary, where low cloudiness has filled in with
areas of freezing fog. A strong cold front is moving south across
Kansas. The NAM12 and RUC13 models appear to have the best handle on
this boundary...and have it sagging south as a cold front to the
Interstate 20 corridor by 11 AM to Noon, and then drifting a little
farther south early this afternoon. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
strong cold front will quickly move south today, entering the Big
Country this afternoon and overtaking the lead boundary by late
afternoon or evening.
Carrying the inherited mention of fog early this morning across the
area roughly north of a Rotan to Albany line, with freezing fog in
the northern parts of Haskell and Throckmorton Counties where
temperatures are at or just below freezing. With the marginally
freezing temperatures and visibility with the fog to stay above one
mile, not expecting any road ice problems this morning aross that
area. Low cloud cover will be persistent through the day today
across Haskell and Throckmorton counties.
Temperature forecast today is tricky across the Big Country (area
along/north of Interstate 20) with the initial frontal boundary.
Made reductions across that area, where highs should be reached
early this afternoon before temperatures level off and then slowly
drop. Highs across that area are expected to range from the upper
30s/near 40 in Haskell and Throckmorton Counties, to the mid to
upper 50s along Interstate 20 and 60s just south of I-20. Farther to
the south, temperatures will be warm again today, with afternoon
highs in the 70s to near 80 with mostly sunny skies.
This evening and tonight, the reinforced cold front will push south
through our central and southern counties, reaching the Interstate
10 corridor by 2 AM. Model boundary layer moisture fields indicate
extensive low cloud cover developing south across West Central Texas
behind the cold front, with areas of drizzle developing. With strong
cold air advection, temperatures will drop to below freezing tonight
across our northern and central counties, to the mid/upper 30s along
and south of Interstate 10. With a weak overrunning pattern setting
up and given the extent of boundary layer moistening, carrying areas
of drizzle and freezing drizzle tonight until mid-morning Monday,
with freezing drizzle mentioned where temperatures drop below
freezing.
19
LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
..Winter precipitation possible Monday night and Tuesday...
A cold surface ridge will be entrenched across the area Monday
into Tuesday with temperatures remaining well below normal. An
upper level trough will approach the area on Monday and move
across the area on Tuesday. Still looks like the best chance
for precipitation will be on Tuesday when lift from the upper
trough will be greatest. Temperatures will be cold Monday and
Tuesday with highs both days in the 30s across much of the area
with the exception of far southern counties where some low to
mid 40s are expected. Temperatures will fall into the 20s areawide
Monday night.
Made only minor changes to the forecast Monday night and Tuesday,
mainly for precipitation type. Model forecast soundings continue
to show a substantial warm layer aloft for much of this time
period and a lack of moisture within the dendritic growth zone.
This type of profile will favor a combination of freezing rain and
sleet Monday night into Tuesday morning, with rain across southern
sections and a winter mix across northern sections by Tuesday
afternoon. Profiles due appear a bit more favorable for some snow
to mix in mainly north of I-20 on Tuesday. At the present time,
precipitation amounts are expected to be very light for this
event, generally one tenth inch or less water equivalent with
only minor snow and ice accumulations.
Dry and warmer weather returns to the area Wednesday through
Saturday with above normal temperatures through the period. The
only mentionable feature will be a weak front on Saturday, with
only slightly cooler temperatures into Sunday.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 25 36 23 37 / 5 10 10 20 30
San Angelo 79 30 41 26 39 / 0 10 10 20 30
Junction 79 37 45 29 42 / 0 10 20 20 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected today at the TAF sites. An initial
cold front will sag south to KABI 17Z-18Z, resulting in a shift
to northeast winds 5-10 KT. Any fog this morning and low cloud
cover today are expected to remain north of Abilene. For the
other TAF sites, winds today will be generally southwest at
6-12 KT. A reinforced cold front will push south across central
and southern sections of West Central Texas tonight. A degradation
of conditions is expected through the night, from north to south.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A nearly stationary surface boundary extends from the eastern Texas
Panhandle south to just northeast of Jayton, then east across
Haskell and Throckmorton Counties. Temperatures are colder behind
east/north of this boundary, where low cloudiness has filled in with
areas of freezing fog. A strong cold front is moving south across
Kansas. The NAM12 and RUC13 models appear to have the best handle on
this boundary...and have it sagging south as a cold front to the
Interstate 20 corridor by 11 AM to Noon, and then drifting a little
farther south early this afternoon. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
strong cold front will quickly move south today, entering the Big
Country this afternoon and overtaking the lead boundary by late
afternoon or evening.
Carrying the inherited mention of fog early this morning across the
area roughly north of a Rotan to Albany line, with freezing fog in
the northern parts of Haskell and Throckmorton Counties where
temperatures are at or just below freezing. With the marginally
freezing temperatures and visibility with the fog to stay above one
mile, not expecting any road ice problems this morning aross that
area. Low cloud cover will be persistent through the day today
across Haskell and Throckmorton counties.
Temperature forecast today is tricky across the Big Country (area
along/north of Interstate 20) with the initial frontal boundary.
Made reductions across that area, where highs should be reached
early this afternoon before temperatures level off and then slowly
drop. Highs across that area are expected to range from the upper
30s/near 40 in Haskell and Throckmorton Counties, to the mid to
upper 50s along Interstate 20 and 60s just south of I-20. Farther to
the south, temperatures will be warm again today, with afternoon
highs in the 70s to near 80 with mostly sunny skies.
This evening and tonight, the reinforced cold front will push south
through our central and southern counties, reaching the Interstate
10 corridor by 2 AM. Model boundary layer moisture fields indicate
extensive low cloud cover developing south across West Central Texas
behind the cold front, with areas of drizzle developing. With strong
cold air advection, temperatures will drop to below freezing tonight
across our northern and central counties, to the mid/upper 30s along
and south of Interstate 10. With a weak overrunning pattern setting
up and given the extent of boundary layer moistening, carrying areas
of drizzle and freezing drizzle tonight until mid-morning Monday,
with freezing drizzle mentioned where temperatures drop below
freezing.
19
LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
..Winter precipitation possible Monday night and Tuesday...
A cold surface ridge will be entrenched across the area Monday
into Tuesday with temperatures remaining well below normal. An
upper level trough will approach the area on Monday and move
across the area on Tuesday. Still looks like the best chance
for precipitation will be on Tuesday when lift from the upper
trough will be greatest. Temperatures will be cold Monday and
Tuesday with highs both days in the 30s across much of the area
with the exception of far southern counties where some low to
mid 40s are expected. Temperatures will fall into the 20s areawide
Monday night.
Made only minor changes to the forecast Monday night and Tuesday,
mainly for precipitation type. Model forecast soundings continue
to show a substantial warm layer aloft for much of this time
period and a lack of moisture within the dendritic growth zone.
This type of profile will favor a combination of freezing rain and
sleet Monday night into Tuesday morning, with rain across southern
sections and a winter mix across northern sections by Tuesday
afternoon. Profiles due appear a bit more favorable for some snow
to mix in mainly north of I-20 on Tuesday. At the present time,
precipitation amounts are expected to be very light for this
event, generally one tenth inch or less water equivalent with
only minor snow and ice accumulations.
Dry and warmer weather returns to the area Wednesday through
Saturday with above normal temperatures through the period. The
only mentionable feature will be a weak front on Saturday, with
only slightly cooler temperatures into Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 25 36 23 37 / 5 10 10 20 30
San Angelo 79 30 41 26 39 / 0 10 10 20 30
Junction 79 37 45 29 42 / 0 10 20 20 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
459 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A nearly stationary surface boundary extends from the eastern Texas
Panhandle south to just northeast of Jayton, then east across
Haskell and Throckmorton Counties. Temperatures are colder behind
east/north of this boundary, where low cloudiness has filled in with
areas of freezing fog. A strong cold front is moving south across
Kansas. The NAM12 and RUC13 models appear to have the best handle on
this boundary...and have it sagging south as a cold front to the
Interstate 20 corridor by 11 AM to Noon, and then drifting a little
farther south early this afternoon. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
strong cold front will quickly move south today, entering the Big
Country this afternoon and overtaking the lead boundary by late
afternoon or evening.
Carrying the inherited mention of fog early this morning across the
area roughly north of a Rotan to Albany line, with freezing fog in
the northern parts of Haskell and Throckmorton Counties where
temperatures are at or just below freezing. With the marginally
freezing temperatures and visibility with the fog to stay above one
mile, not expecting any road ice problems this morning aross that
area. Low cloud cover will be persistent through the day today
across Haskell and Throckmorton counties.
Temperature forecast today is tricky across the Big Country (area
along/north of Interstate 20) with the initial frontal boundary.
Made reductions across that area, where highs should be reached
early this afternoon before temperatures level off and then slowly
drop. Highs across that area are expected to range from the upper
30s/near 40 in Haskell and Throckmorton Counties, to the mid to
upper 50s along Interstate 20 and 60s just south of I-20. Farther to
the south, temperatures will be warm again today, with afternoon
highs in the 70s to near 80 with mostly sunny skies.
This evening and tonight, the reinforced cold front will push south
through our central and southern counties, reaching the Interstate
10 corridor by 2 AM. Model boundary layer moisture fields indicate
extensive low cloud cover developing south across West Central Texas
behind the cold front, with areas of drizzle developing. With strong
cold air advection, temperatures will drop to below freezing tonight
across our northern and central counties, to the mid/upper 30s along
and south of Interstate 10. With a weak overrunning pattern setting
up and given the extent of boundary layer moistening, carrying areas
of drizzle and freezing drizzle tonight until mid-morning Monday,
with freezing drizzle mentioned where temperatures drop below
freezing.
19
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
...Winter precipitation possible Monday night and Tuesday...
A cold surface ridge will be entrenched across the area Monday
into Tuesday with temperatures remaining well below normal. An
upper level trough will approach the area on Monday and move
across the area on Tuesday. Still looks like the best chance
for precipitation will be on Tuesday when lift from the upper
trough will be greatest. Temperatures will be cold Monday and
Tuesday with highs both days in the 30s across much of the area
with the exception of far southern counties where some low to
mid 40s are expected. Temperatures will fall into the 20s areawide
Monday night.
Made only minor changes to the forecast Monday night and Tuesday,
mainly for precipitation type. Model forecast soundings continue
to show a substantial warm layer aloft for much of this time
period and a lack of moisture within the dendritic growth zone.
This type of profile will favor a combination of freezing rain and
sleet Monday night into Tuesday morning, with rain across southern
sections and a winter mix across northern sections by Tuesday
afternoon. Profiles due appear a bit more favorable for some snow
to mix in mainly north of I-20 on Tuesday. At the present time,
precipitation amounts are expected to be very light for this
event, generally one tenth inch or less water equivalent with
only minor snow and ice accumulations.
Dry and warmer weather returns to the area Wednesday through
Saturday with above normal temperatures through the period. The
only mentionable feature will be a weak front on Saturday, with
only slightly cooler temperatures into Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 25 36 23 37 / 5 10 10 20 30
San Angelo 79 30 41 26 39 / 0 10 10 20 30
Junction 79 37 45 30 42 / 0 10 20 20 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
704 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EST SUNDAY...
TN/KY RADAR SHOWING HIGHER REFLECTIVITY WITH PRECIP AND SNOW BEING
REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KY. HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A FULL
HANDLE ON THIS...BUT THEN IT DIMINISHES IT AS IT MOVES IT INTO WV
BY LATE MORNING. 12Z RNK SOUNDING COMING IN SHOWING LOW LVL
MOISTURE. OUR RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS FADING ACROSS THE
MTNS OF CRAIG COUNTY. COULD STILL SEE OVER TOWARD WV/ALLEGHANYS
SOME PATCHY FZDZ OR DZ THIS MORNING. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
ARRIVING INTO THE MTNS OF WV EAST TOWARD HSP AROUND BY NOON...BUT
TAPERED POPS OFF SOME THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST RADAR/MODEL
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WRN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
BRING A BETTER CONVERGENT PATTERN WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT TO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY. KEPT POPS HIGHER IN THE NW...THEN SHIFT THEM
TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT. THIS SEEMS TO BE A
CASE WHERE THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS ACROSS THE MTNS OF WV/ALLEGHANYS
AND THE ENE INTO NRN VA...AS UPPER PATTERN SHOWS SPLIT BETWEEN TWO
SHORTWAVES. SOUNDINGS FORECASTING MAINLY SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SUPPORT TO INCLUDE ICE PELLETS
EXISTS...ALTHOUGH SHORT LIVED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW
VA/NW NC THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STAYING UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WRN GREENBRIER TOPPING OUT WITH 2...WHILE REST OF
THE WRN SLOPES WILL GET AN INCH OR SO...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
NC MTNS. MODELS HINT AT EVEN AREAS NORTH OF ROANOKE AND LYNCHBURG
ALONG THE RIDGES COULD SEE A DUSTING TO JUST UNDER AN INCH.
AGAIN...THE CMC/NAM FAVOR CLEARING BEHIND THIS WAVE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS PIEDMONT. LEANED
TOWARD A CLOUDIER SOLUTION...AS THESE MODELS DID NOT PICK
INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE ONGOING SAT TRENDS...SO LEANED MY SKY
COVER FORECAST TOWARD A LOCAL WRF/MOSGUIDE SOLUTION. STILL COULD
SEE ENOUGH SUN IN THE SOUTHEAST TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 50S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HINDER TEMPS. TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE
TRICKY GIVEN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AND TIMING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV TO MID 40S NEW RIVER VALLEY/NC MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ROA-LYH...MID 50S SOUTHSIDE VA...NW NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT.
DECENT ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SEE GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE FAVORING WRN SLOPES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS POSSIBLE WRN GREENBRIER AND
LESS ELSEWHERE THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH A NORFOLK VA
TO ATL GA LINE OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING DUE TO PARALLEL UPPER
FLOW.
SKIES STAY CLOUDY IN THE WEST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME BREAKS
OUT EAST. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS SE WV...TO LOWER
30S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. HOW FAR SOUTH DOES
THIS FRONT GO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS
QUESTIONABLE...CONSIDERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE
UNDER ZONAL FLOW. ALL 00Z MODELS ARE PUSHING THE FRONT DOWN INTO
THE GULF. JUST INLAND AND BEHIND THE FRONT...A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF STATES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN US MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER WAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE FOOT STEPS OF THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. IF
MOISTURE DOES ADVANCE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30 PERCENT) WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
NC/VA BORDER. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER PLAYER TO THIS GAME. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MID WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
THEN WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING COLD AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW TO HAVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW. THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...OUR
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE COLD DRY HIGH. THEREFORE I KEPT
ANY POPS IN THE PERIOD LOW AND TO THE SOUTH.
IT IS THE SECOND STRONGER WAVE THAT HAS ME MORE CONCERN. EVEN
THOUGH THIS WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE GULF STATES...OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE AND WARM NOSE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE P-TYPE
ISSUES FOR THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PER
00Z ECM. SINCE MODELS HAVE A DIFFERENT OPINION OF WHERE THE SECOND
WAVE TRACKS AND BEHAVES...WILL WAIT AND TACKLE THIS PROBLEM AT A
LATER TIME.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE PASSING OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST VARY GREATLY. GFSMOS FOR DANVILLE HAS A HIGH OF 46F WHILE THE
NAMMOS IS COLDER AT 38F. SINCE THE FRONT IS A SLOW MOVER AND A
WEST WIND DEVELOPS QUICKLY...LEANED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
WARMER GFSMOS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. ON TUESDAY...UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. I WENT EVEN COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE
WITH A COLD WEDGE IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST FRIDAY...
BECAUSE OF THE GREAT VARIABILITY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTION...WILL LEAN TOWARDS HPCGUIDE SHAPED AWAY FROM THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF...AND MORE TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRACKS OF THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/CMC MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS
AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE...COMPARED TO GFS BEING SLOWER
AND WARMER WITH MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS WINTER STORM...HARD TO WORK OUT THE EXACT
DETAILS OF TIMING...TRACK AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. IN THIS PROGRESSIVE FLOW...A
COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START
COLD AND SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN...A
COOLING TEND IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEEPING LOW CIGS AT BLF THIS MORNING AS UPSTREAM METARS INDICATE
AROUND 1-2KFT CIGS...AND BLF BEING HIGHER UP SHOULD SEE THE LOWER
SIDE OF THIS. MVFR CIGS AT BCB/LWB THIS MORNING AS WELL. PATCHY
FZDZ/DZ POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB UNTIL 15Z...BUT SFC OBS INDICATE
NOTHING...SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS. SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS
APPROACH ROANOKE THIS MORNING AND WILL SEE A FEW HOURS BEFORE
COMING BACK UP TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
MODELS ARE MAINLY KEEPING THREAT OF PRECIP IN LWB/BLF...WITH LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW. KEPT CIGS SUB VFR IN THE MTNS TODAY WHILE FROM BCB EAST
TOOK TO VFR. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP AND SHIFT FROM
VRB TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING TO WEST BETWEEN 17Z BLF/LWB TO 01Z
AT DAN. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ROA/BCB.
TONIGHT...THE UPSLOPE WEST FLOW WILL HAVE BLF/LWB AND BCB MVFR AND
LOWER. EAST OF THE MTNS...SHOULD BE VFR WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS.
FRONT SLOWS DOWN/STALLS SOUTH OF US MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING ALONG IT. AT THIS TIME...PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD BE LOW MONDAY...AND CIGS WILL BE MVFR WEST TO VFR EAST.
MODELS STILL ADVERTISING POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FROM OUR GENERAL
AREA SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST TUE-THU WITH A STRONGER LOW FORMING
ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME SNOW WOULD BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE
OVER OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLY RAIN MIXING IN AT DAN. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE LOW TRACK...STAY TUNED...BUT TRAVEL BY AIR
OVERALL DOES NO LOOK FAVORABLE MIDWEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
119 PM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW AT THIS
TIME IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER. FURTHER
SOUTH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING. GOING BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO
MY SOUTH AND THE 12Z DDC SOUNDING...SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
NEAR THE DENDRITIC ZONE WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ABOVE THIS.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH WHAT MODEL SOUNDINGS HAD INDICATED.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN SNOW BAND EXPECT WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON TO
CONTINUE WHICH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
AFTER THIS BAND OF SNOW LEAVES...MESOSCALE OUTPUT INDICATING
LITTLE IF ANY MORE SNOW WILL FALL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND NOT TO CHANGE THAT...EXPECT
THE FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
ADJUSTED MAXES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
THE WINDS PER TRENDS AND LATEST RUC WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT IS
CATCHING THIS THE BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MONDAY...HOW COLD TO MAKE IT TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY/RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PACIFIC. BECAUSE THE UPPER FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST
THAT LEAVES A FAST AND NEARLY ZONAL FROM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE WERE SOME MODERATION IN THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS AS SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW DID OCCUR. HOWEVER ANOTHER VERY
COLD AIR MASS IN PUSHING THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS ARE NOT GETTING THE POSITION OF THE MAIN
JETS...THE ONE OVER OUR AREA RIGHT NOW AND THE ONE COMING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL AT THIS TIME THE GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING
THE BEST. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WAS DOING BETTER IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING THE SAME PROBLEMS IN
POSITION OF FEATURES AS AT THE JET LEVEL. MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND EAST WITH FEATURES. OVERALL THE GFS AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE ECMWF IS
DOING WAY BETTER THAN EVERYTHING ELSE ON THE SURFACE PATTERN...
ESPECIALLY THE LOCATION OF THIS CURRENT COLD SURGE AND THE SURFACE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST JET
STARTS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE DAY. THIS JET SEGMENT RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH BY 18Z AND IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THEN. THIS IS AT THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS. THE BRUNT OF LIFT LOOKS TO BE OUR NORTH. MODEL DEPICTION
LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTH
AND THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO NO LIFT IS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE MORE OF A PROBLEM TODAY. MODELS NOT AS
SATURATED IN THE COLUMN AS WAS SHOWN TODAY. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE IT
LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW IS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MY AREA ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE ICE IN THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY DOWN LOW...BUT MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WARM LAYER NOT TOO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. ALSO THE THIS
AFTERNOON THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LIFT OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIGHT AND COULD BE A
MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE RISE. PROBLEM IS MODELS LOOK TO BE STARTING
OUT TOO COLD. HOWEVER DID TEND GO TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS INITIAL
COUPLET MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG PV ANOMALY
APPROACHES DURING THE EVENING. MESOSCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
ORGANIZED. ICE LOOKS TO GET INTO THE COLUMN WITH THETA-E LAPSE
RATES SO SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE PHASE. FAVORED AREA FOR THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST HALF. MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH LATE IN THE NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH DUE TO THICK CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AS STATED ABOVE FIRST COUPLET APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE MODELS DEVELOP A
SECONDARY NORTHERN JET STREAK JUST TO OUR NORTH AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE DAY. ANOTHER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTHWEST
OF OUR AREA AT 12Z WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK COUPLET TO OUR WEST. THIS
NORTHERN JET STREAK/RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. SO INCREASED POPS TO A LOW CHANCE IN THE MORNING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT IS STARTING MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA. SHOULD HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE WINDS SO
LITTLE CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THERE LOOKS TO BE LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE EARLY SO HAVE A MENTION
OF FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. BECAUSE OF VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND A
SNOWFIELD...THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED A FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO COLD.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET APPROACHES THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE
WESTERN THIRD TO HALF BY 06Z. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY MOVE
THIS FEATURE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
AFFECT SOME PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT...
MAINLY EAST. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL DRY
LAYER. SO WILL ONLY EXPECT A THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WITH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD REMAINING DRY.
AIR MASS WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS SPREADING OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. AT FIRST GLANCE THE NWP APPEARS TO WARM. THE 2
METER TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND THEY DID DO BETTER
YESTERDAY IN A SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS ONCE. ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXES WITH THE COOLEST IN THE EAST AND WARMEST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONCERNS A SHIFT IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM AN ACTIVE...COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN TO A
MUCH WARMER...DRY PATTERN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE WEAK RIDGE MAY LAST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND. THIS WOULD MEAN WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS AND INITIAL BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE GIVES JUST THAT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LAST TWO OF A SERIES OF WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING A COUPLE LAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
SNOW. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR BOTH
DISTURBANCES...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THESE
TWO WAVES DO NOT POSSESS THE STRONGER CHARACTERISTICS NEEDED TO
EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
THE WARMING TREND ALLUDED TO EARLIER BEGINS TUESDAY. WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THE TWO DISTURBANCES...WARMING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...HIGHS FOR TUESDAY SHOULD APPROACH
NORMAL LEVELS. THE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND COMPLICATES THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUT THERE WERE ENOUGH SIGNS TO MAINTAIN A TEMP
FORECAST IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY...LIKELY DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SNOW ON THE GROUND. ENDED UP LOWERING TEMPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST RUNS BUT THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW SHOULD MELT
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCAL CHANGES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND AT THE PRESENT TIME.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
FORECAST IS ADVERTISED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S. THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS CONTINUED ITS
TREND OF WARMING OVER THIS TIME FRAME. THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS NOW
WARMER THAN THE GFS...A BIG CHANGE FROM THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL RUN
YESTERDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VIS AND CIGS
IMPROVING SOME AT KGLD AND KMCK. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING DOWN TO
LIFR TOWARD MORNING WITH FOG REDEVELOPMENT AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
218 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
As the next upper tropospheric jet streak continues to approach
tonight, there will be an increase in the response in the 800-600mb
layer (particularly noted at 700mb) as an increase in deformation
and convergence along the slowly southward moving mid level
baroclinic zone. The latest runs of the HRRR are starting to line up
nicely with other mesoscale models and even coarser global models
with a west-northwest to east-southeast axis of light to moderate
snow. The zone of 700mb frontogenesis will only be strongest over
any one location for about 3 or 4 hours before quickly shifting off
to the east. The fast duration of the event alone will limit
potential accumulations, however during the height of the snowfall,
rates could be on the order of one-half to three-quarters inch per
hour. Placement of the heaviest snow band(s) is also still somewhat
in question, but feel pretty confident it (they) will ultimately lie
somewhere along/north of Highway 50 and south of Highway 4. The
winter weather advisory that was issued midday encompasses this
region of the forecast area for a general 1 to 3 inch accumulation.
Given the expected banded nature of the event and forward motion of
the frontogenesis somewhat parallel to band orientation, some
isolated amounts in excess of 3 inches will be possible. Global and
mesoscale models both show the meso-alpha scale frontogenesis
weakening toward daybreak as it shifts toward south-central Kansas,
so will be going with slightly lower amounts across the
Stafford-Pratt-Barber County zone. We went ahead and removed the
snow out of the forecast for the bulk of the day Monday except for
the very end of the day across far southwest Kansas. The rest of the
forecast was left unchanged as it appeared to be in pretty good
shape (regarding temperatures, wind, etc.)
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough moving
southeastward across the Western High Plains Monday night bringing
precip chances to the region very early in the period. As the
shortwave moves through, surface high pressure across the Upper
Midwest will provide a southeasterly upslope flow near the surface
while surface low pressure develops across New Mexico. This will
set up increased low level convergence across the panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma into portions of southwest Kansas. Although the
flow aloft will be less than favorable, enough low/mid level
forcing will be present, including the presence of some H7
frontogenetic banding, to support light snow development across
the panhandles with snow possibly reaching across the border into
southwest Kansas. Fairly light QPF signals and PW values down
around a quarter inch suggest minimal snow accumulations generally
less than one inch through Tuesday morning. Drier conditions are
then expected through the end of the week as weak upper level
ridging develops across the Intermountain West.
Temperatures will warm up Tuesday as surface high pressure departs
eastern Kansas to the east returning a southerly low level flow
to western Kansas. This will draw slightly warmer air northward
with H85 temperatures ranging from around 5C below across central
Kansas to near 0C in far southwest Kansas. Along with the help of
expected decreased cloud cover, look for highs well up into the
30s(F) Tuesday afternoon with near 40F possible in extreme
southwest Kansas. The warming trend continues into Wednesday with
widespread 40s(F) expected for highs with near 50F possible in far
southwest Kansas. Highs are likely to reach the 50s(F) to near 60F
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Latest indications are that ceilings will remain in the IFR
category with average ceiling in the 600 to 1000 foot range at DDC
and GCK. HYS will likely stay in MVFR for the remainder of the day
until light snow begins to affect the terminal this evening. Light
to occasionally moderate snow will move in mid-evening and persist
for a 6-9 hour period across portions of southwest Kansas, including
GCK and DDC terminals. During the heaviest period of snow, flight
category of LIFR or perhaps briefly VLIFR can be expected overnight.
Following the snow early Monday morning, ceiling will remain a
problem with flight category likely staying in IFR, especially GCK
and DDC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 8 16 4 32 / 80 20 20 0
GCK 8 18 6 34 / 80 10 20 0
EHA 12 24 12 40 / 30 20 30 10
LBL 12 21 8 36 / 40 20 20 10
HYS 5 13 0 30 / 60 20 10 0
P28 9 17 4 30 / 80 60 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening to
9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Monday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
076>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
148 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
...Updated short term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
As the next upper tropospheric jet streak continues to approach
tonight, there will be an increase in the response in the 800-600mb
layer (particularly noted at 700mb) as an increase in deformation
and convergence along the slowly southward moving mid level
baroclinic zone. The latest runs of the HRRR are starting to line up
nicely with other mesoscale models and even coarser global models
with a west-northwest to east-southeast axis of light to moderate
snow. The zone of 700mb frontogenesis will only be strongest over
any one location for about 3 or 4 hours before quickly shifting off
to the east. The fast duration of the event alone will limit
potential accumulations, however during the height of the snowfall,
rates could be on the order of one-half to three-quarters inch per
hour. Placement of the heaviest snow band(s) is also still somewhat
in question, but feel pretty confident it (they) will ultimately lie
somewhere along/north of Highway 50 and south of Highway 4. The
winter weather advisory that was issued midday encompasses this
region of the forecast area for a general 1 to 3 inch accumulation.
Given the expected banded nature of the event and forward motion of
the frontogenesis somewhat parallel to band orientation, some
isolated amounts in excess of 3 inches will be possible. Global and
mesoscale models both show the meso-alpha scale frontogenesis
weakening toward daybreak as it shifts toward south-central Kansas,
so will be going with slightly lower amounts across the
Stafford-Pratt-Barber County zone. We went ahead and removed the
snow out of the forecast for the bulk of the day Monday except for
the very end of the day across far southwest Kansas. The rest of the
forecast was left unchanged as it appeared to be in pretty good
shape (regarding temperatures, wind, etc.)
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
A weak shortwave trough will move through the Central Rockies along
the zonal flow late Sunday. This shortwave will then move through
Kansas on Monday. Convergence and mid level moisture will increase
as this feature approaches. Mostly cloudy skies are anticipated
throughout the day Monday with light to moderate snow showers.
Precipitation chances end from west to east Monday evening into
Monday night. Snow totals remain around 1 to 2 inches across the
area. However, a few areas across west central and south central
Kansas could see over 2 inches by the time the system exits
the area. Surrounding offices and DDC have decided to not go with a
winter weather advisory at this time and have the day shift see what
the next model run suggests. Cloudy skies should continue Monday
night with some clearing possible across west central Kansas towards
sunrise. Winds will generally be from a northeasterly direction
Monday as high pressure builds into the Plains. With the cloud cover
and shot of cold air advection across the area, temperatures Monday
are not expected to increase much from the morning lows. Highs
Monday are forecasted to range from the lower teens across central
Kansas to lower 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Lows Tuesday
morning are expected to range from the negative single digits across
central Kansas to around 10 degrees across far southwestern Kansas.
However, if more clearing occurs overnight, temperatures could end
up lower than what the current forecast depicts.
The dome of high pressure moves east of the area on Tuesday shifting
winds to the southwest. A few low level clouds may continue in the
morning across south central Kansas Tuesday morning. Otherwise
expect partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. The Central High
Plains will then be stuck in between an upper level ridge across the
western US and an upper level long wave trough across the eastern
United states throughout the remainder of the forecast period. A few
weak shortwaves are progged to move north of the area, but do not
look to bring any precipitation across southwest Kansas at this
time. Only a few clouds are expected to be observed throughout this
period with dry conditions. Winds will generally be from the west
but shift slightly to the north or south as the aforementioned
shortwaves move north of southwest Kansas. We will finally begin the
slow warming up process Tuesday through Saturday, however the
snowpack across much of the region will need to be knocked out quite
a bit before we realize maximum potential based on typical downslope
mix-down scenarios.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Latest indications are that ceilings will remain in the IFR
category with average ceiling in the 600 to 1000 foot range at DDC
and GCK. HYS will likely stay in MVFR for the remainder of the day
until light snow begins to affect the terminal this evening. Light
to occasionally moderate snow will move in mid-evening and persist
for a 6-9 hour period across portions of southwest Kansas, including
GCK and DDC terminals. During the heaviest period of snow, flight
category of LIFR or perhaps briefly VLIFR can be expected overnight.
Following the snow early Monday morning, ceiling will remain a
problem with flight category likely staying in IFR, especially GCK
and DDC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 8 16 4 32 / 80 20 20 0
GCK 8 18 6 34 / 80 10 20 0
EHA 12 24 12 40 / 30 20 30 10
LBL 12 21 8 36 / 40 20 20 10
HYS 5 13 0 30 / 60 20 10 0
P28 9 17 4 30 / 80 60 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening to
9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Monday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
076>081-088>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW AT THIS
TIME IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER. FURTHER
SOUTH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING. GOING BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO
MY SOUTH AND THE 12Z DDC SOUNDING...SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
NEAR THE DENDRITIC ZONE WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ABOVE THIS.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH WHAT MODEL SOUNDINGS HAD INDICATED.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN SNOW BAND EXPECT WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON TO
CONTINUE WHICH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
AFTER THIS BAND OF SNOW LEAVES...MESOSCALE OUTPUT INDICATING
LITTLE IF ANY MORE SNOW WILL FALL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND NOT TO CHANGE THAT...EXPECT
THE FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
ADJUSTED MAXES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
THE WINDS PER TRENDS AND LATEST RUC WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT IS
CATCHING THIS THE BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MONDAY...HOW COLD TO MAKE IT TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY/RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PACIFIC. BECAUSE THE UPPER FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST
THAT LEAVES A FAST AND NEARLY ZONAL FROM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE WERE SOME MODERATION IN THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS AS SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW DID OCCUR. HOWEVER ANOTHER VERY
COLD AIR MASS IN PUSHING THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS ARE NOT GETTING THE POSITION OF THE MAIN
JETS...THE ONE OVER OUR AREA RIGHT NOW AND THE ONE COMING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL AT THIS TIME THE GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING
THE BEST. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WAS DOING BETTER IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING THE SAME PROBLEMS IN
POSITION OF FEATURES AS AT THE JET LEVEL. MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND EAST WITH FEATURES. OVERALL THE GFS AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE ECMWF IS
DOING WAY BETTER THAN EVERYTHING ELSE ON THE SURFACE PATTERN...
ESPECIALLY THE LOCATION OF THIS CURRENT COLD SURGE AND THE SURFACE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE CANADIAN AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST JET
STARTS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE DAY. THIS JET SEGMENT RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH BY 18Z AND IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THEN. THIS IS AT THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS. THE BRUNT OF LIFT LOOKS TO BE OUR NORTH. MODEL DEPICTION
LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTH
AND THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO NO LIFT IS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE MORE OF A PROBLEM TODAY. MODELS NOT AS
SATURATED IN THE COLUMN AS WAS SHOWN TODAY. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE IT
LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW IS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MY AREA ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE ICE IN THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY DOWN LOW...BUT MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WARM LAYER NOT TOO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. ALSO THE THIS
AFTERNOON THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LIFT OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIGHT AND COULD BE A
MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE RISE. PROBLEM IS MODELS LOOK TO BE STARTING
OUT TOO COLD. HOWEVER DID TEND GO TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS INITIAL
COUPLET MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG PV ANOMALY
APPROACHES DURING THE EVENING. MESOSCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
ORGANIZED. ICE LOOKS TO GET INTO THE COLUMN WITH THETA-E LAPSE
RATES SO SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE PHASE. FAVORED AREA FOR THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST HALF. MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH LATE IN THE NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH DUE TO THICK CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AS STATED ABOVE FIRST COUPLET APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE MODELS DEVELOP A
SECONDARY NORTHERN JET STREAK JUST TO OUR NORTH AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE DAY. ANOTHER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTHWEST
OF OUR AREA AT 12Z WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK COUPLET TO OUR WEST. THIS
NORTHERN JET STREAK/RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. SO INCREASED POPS TO A LOW CHANCE IN THE MORNING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT IS STARTING MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA. SHOULD HAVE THICK CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE WINDS SO
LITTLE CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THERE LOOKS TO BE LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE EARLY SO HAVE A MENTION
OF FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. BECAUSE OF VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND A
SNOWFIELD...THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN.
SUFFICE TO SAY THE LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED A FEW DAYS...THE MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO COLD.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET APPROACHES THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE
WESTERN THIRD TO HALF BY 06Z. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY MOVE
THIS FEATURE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
AFFECT SOME PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT...
MAINLY EAST. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL DRY
LAYER. SO WILL ONLY EXPECT A THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
DECK WITH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD REMAINING DRY.
AIR MASS WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS SPREADING OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. AT FIRST GLANCE THE NWP APPEARS TO WARM. THE 2
METER TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND THEY DID DO BETTER
YESTERDAY IN A SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS ONCE. ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXES WITH THE COOLEST IN THE EAST AND WARMEST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN US WITH WESTERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO NW
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MEAN STORM TRACK REMAINING ALONG THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL ON PAST
MODEL RUNS TO EVEN HINT AT LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES...HOWEVER EVEN IT HAS
TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT. GFS/GEFS/GEM ALL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
WEAKER SHORTWAVES (AND LESS OF AN IMPACT IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS OVER
OUR CWA AS A RESULT). THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND BY THE LATEST ECMWF
TO KEEP BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS FURTHER NORTH (IN LINE WITH OTHER
GUIDANCE)...WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY IMPACT OF THESE TROUGH PASSAGES...
AND KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE. AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN NON
MEASURABLE PRECIP HINTED AT BY ECMWF THU NIGHT-FRI (WHICH I HAVE VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN BASED ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN) IT LOOKS LIKE WE
ARE ABOUT TO ENTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD/DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON WED IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VIS AND CIGS
IMPROVING SOME AT KGLD AND KMCK. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING DOWN TO
LIFR TOWARD MORNING WITH FOG REDEVELOPMENT AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1051 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2014
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation sections...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
The hemispheric pattern was characterized by a high zonal index with
a couple of identifiable synoptic scale jet streaks within the
pattern across the western third of the CONUS. The first of these
jet streaks across the Northern Rockies led to light/moderate snow
across western and central Nebraska this morning, as increased
deformation acted on a tight baroclinic zone at 700mb (-18C at Rapid
City vs. -2C at Denver). A cold front at 850mb was analyzed from the
far northeastern portion of New Mexico through the southern Texas
Panhandle into northern Oklahoma. Cold advection continued across
southwest Kansas behind this front. The next upper level jet streak
was quick on the heels of the aforementioned Northern Rockies jet
streak...entering the Great Basin region this morning. This second
jet streak will have an impact on southwestern Kansas weather
tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Areas of locally dense freezing fog that developed over parts of
central and western Kansas after sunset were propagating southwest
behind the front into the far southwest part of the state early this
morning. The last few runs of the RUC and HRRR visibility progs have
been pretty consistent in moving the fog south and west into
southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles by 12z. This
looks reasonable given the dry air advection that is currently
ongoing from north central into southwest Kansas. The dense fog
advisory goes until 12z and will let it ride but continue to monitor
for any areal or temporal extensions.
Per SREF analysis and water vapor imagery, the first upper speed max
was currently moving into the upper Mississippi Valley early this
morning. The subsequent speed maxes will move out along the Kansas
Nebraska border today and out over Kansas tonight. Associated mid
level frontogenetic forcing will move out across Nebraska and far
northern Kansas this morning and over Kansas tonight. Regional radar
mosaic shows light snow already moving out of Wyoming into the
Nebraska Panhandle and this will continue eastward across northern
Kansas and Nebraska today. The current forecast has chance pops for
light snow along the I-70 corridor today. Think any measurable snow
will be north of the Dodge City forecast area today. The system
moving out tonight should bring some accumulating snow to west
central and parts of southwest and south central Kansas tonight. The
models have been consistent with this so have increased pops well
into the likely category tonight. The NAM is showing a swath of 1-2
inch snowfall generally north of Highway 50 tonight. Have increased
snowfall amounts a little but for now think we will not see enough
to warrant a winter weather advisory.
Temperatures will not rise much, if at all, today given the ongoing
cold air advection. Temperatures tonight should fall well down into
the single digits above zero with a few low teens possible around
Elkhart and Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
A weak shortwave trough will move through the Central Rockies along
the zonal flow late Sunday. This shortwave will then move through
Kansas on Monday. Convergence and mid level moisture will increase
as this feature approaches. Mostly cloudy skies are anticipated
throughout the day Monday with light to moderate snow showers.
Precipitation chances end from west to east Monday evening into
Monday night. Snow totals remain around 1 to 2 inches across the
area. However, a few areas across west central and south central
Kansas could see over 2 inches by the time the system exits
the area. Surrounding offices and DDC have decided to not go with a
winter weather advisory at this time and have the day shift see what
the next model run suggests. Cloudy skies should continue Monday
night with some clearing possible across west central Kansas towards
sunrise. Winds will generally be from a northeasterly direction
Monday as high pressure builds into the Plains. With the cloud cover
and shot of cold air advection across the area, temperatures Monday
are not expected to increase much from the morning lows. Highs
Monday are forecasted to range from the lower teens across central
Kansas to lower 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Lows Tuesday
morning are expected to range from the negative single digits across
central Kansas to around 10 degrees across far southwestern Kansas.
However, if more clearing occurs overnight, temperatures could end
up lower than what the current forecast depicts.
The dome of high pressure moves east of the area on Tuesday shifting
winds to the southwest. A few low level clouds may continue in the
morning across south central Kansas Tuesday morning. Otherwise
expect partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. The Central High
Plains will then be stuck in between an upper level ridge across the
western US and an upper level long wave trough across the eastern
United states throughout the remainder of the forecast period. A few
weak shortwaves are progged to move north of the area, but do not
look to bring any precipitation across southwest Kansas at this
time. Only a few clouds are expected to be observed throughout this
period with dry conditions. Winds will generally be from the west
but shift slightly to the north or south as the aforementioned
shortwaves move north of southwest Kansas. We will finally begin the
slow warming up process Tuesday through Saturday, however the
snowpack across much of the region will need to be knocked out quite
a bit before we realize maximum potential based on typical downslope
mix-down scenarios.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
Latest indications are that ceilings will remain in the IFR
category with average ceiling in the 600 to 1000 foot range at DDC
and GCK. HYS will likely stay in MVFR for the remainder of the day
until light snow begins to affect the terminal this evening. Light
to occasionally moderate snow will move in mid-evening and persist
for a 6-9 hour period across portions of southwest Kansas, including
GCK and DDC terminals. During the heaviest period of snow, flight
category of LIFR or perhaps briefly VLIFR can be expected overnight.
Following the snow early Monday morning, ceiling will remain a
problem with flight category likely staying in IFR, especially GCK
and DDC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 20 8 15 4 / 20 60 60 20
GCK 20 8 17 6 / 30 60 50 20
EHA 24 12 23 12 / 20 30 30 20
LBL 23 12 20 8 / 20 40 40 20
HYS 18 5 12 0 / 30 60 40 20
P28 25 9 16 4 / 30 60 60 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Monday FOR KSZ043>046-062>066-077>081.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1240 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS TO THE SW OF CORE OF ARCTIC AIR SITUATED OVER QUEBEC.
RIBBON OF MUCH STRONGER W FLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE S 2/3 OF THE
CONUS. A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS FASTER FLOW IS
MOVING THRU CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MRNG. ACCOMPANYING PCPN HAS
REACHED AS FAR N AS GRB OR SO...BUT OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT NO HIER THAN 0.10 TO 0.15 INCH IS LIMITING THE IMPACT OVER
UPR MI TO JUST SOME MID CLD DESPITE PRESENCE OF AREA OF ACCOMPANYING
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC. LGT WINDS AND LO PWAT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
FALL BLO ZERO AT MOST PLACES DESPITE THESE CLDS. THERE ARE SOME LK
CLDS NEAR SUPERIOR WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -20C DESPITE LGT NW FEED OF
DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER. THE
MQT RADAR DOES SHOW A FEW HIER RETURNS OVER SCENTRAL LK SUP...SO
THERE ARE PROBABLY SOME ISOLD -SHSN DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES FOR LES.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN AND
ANOTHER DROPPING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LIMITED POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH ARRAY OF SHRTWVS MENTIONED ABOVE AND TEMPS.
TODAY..AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING TO THE S
IS FCST TO MOVE E THIS MRNG AND EXIT THE AREA SOON AFTER SUNRISE. SO
ACCOMPANYING MID CLD COVER SHOULD SHIFT TO THE E AS DRIER MID LVL
AIR FOLLOWS. BUT THE SHRTWV OVER SW SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO TRACK
INTO SCENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC
ARRIVING THIS AFTN OVER UPR MI. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW
WITH LLVL NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING FIRST DISTURBANCE...
SUSPECT THE IMPACT FOR THE CWA WL BE THE SAME AS WHAT IS HAPPENING
NOW...JUST SOME MID CLD. SO HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE POPS...AT LEAST
AWAY FM LK SUP. THE MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH LK EFFECT PCPN THERE
MAY OR MAY NOT BE. MOST OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING NO PCPN
NEAR THE LK THRU THE DAY...WITH ICE COVER...ABSENCE OF CYC FLOW /IN
FACT SHOWING ACYC FLOW/...AND LLVL DRY ADVECTION SUPPRESSING THIS
ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHE HAND...THE LOWER RES GFS/ECMWF LIGHT QPF
SUGGEST SOME SHSN IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS. THE GFS ICE ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER OVER CENTRAL LK SUP WHILE THE
NAM/GEM INDICATE A COMPLETELY COVERED LK. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
BREAKS IN THE ICE RECENTLY AND THERE ARE AND HAVE BEEN SOME LGT SHSN
AS WELL...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO RES MODELS AND INCLUDE SOME LO CHC
POPS IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS THRU THE DAY AS THE LLVL NW FLOW DROPS
H85 TEMPS TO ARND -23C BY 00Z MON OVER THE W. THIS CAD SHOULD KEEP
MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN YDAY...WITH THE HIER TEMPS OVER THE SCENTRAL
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PROBABLY SOME SUNSHINE BTWN THE SHRTWVS.
TNGT...SHRTWV NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO DROP SEWD AND OVER
UPR MI BY 12Z MON AS WI DISTURBANCE SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER LKS. THIS
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SHRTWVS IS FCST TO MAINTAIN SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC THRU THE NGT...SO THERE WL PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT OF
AT LEAST MID/HI CLD EVEN OVER THE INTERIOR EVEN THOUGH LLVL DRYING
SHOULD PREVENT ANY PCPN THERE. CLOSER TO LK SUP...WL MAINTAIN SOME
LOWER CHC POPS FOR LES WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -24C DESPITE
FCST NEUTRAL/ACYC NW FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER. THE GFS SHOWS
STRONGER LLVL WINDS THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT OUT OF PHASE
SHRTWVS/EXTENSIVE ICE COVER THAT WL LIMIT PRES FALLS OVER THE OPEN
WATER AND SHARPNESS OF THE PRES GRADIENT INDICATE THE WEAKER WINDS
SHOWN BY THE BULK OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THIS
DIFFERENCE IN WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHETHER
WIND CHILLS WL REACH ADVY THRESHOLDS AS SFC TEMPS FALL WELL BLO
ZERO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF. WITH THE WEAKER WINDS...EXPECT
NEITHER THE WIND CHILLS NOR THE WIND SPEEDS WL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ADVY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
AFTER STARTING THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER A COLD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...IT/S DEPARTURE ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WARMER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS (-24C) UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ON
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE OPEN WATER. BUT MODIS SATELLITE FROM
TODAY SHOWS THAT THOSE AREAS ARE VERY LIMITED...BUT THERE WERE
STILL PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OVER THE LAST DAY.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS SHIFTS OF SLIGHT AND CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT...ALONG WITH LIMITED
OPEN WATER...DON/T THINK SNOW WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH...UNLESS SOME
WATER OPENS UP MORE THAN CURRENTLY SEEN. SINCE THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA (CURRENTLY BETWEEN
LAKE WINNIPEG AND HUDSON BAY)...WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER DAYS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEST IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND MID-UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE HIGH SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR...WARMING ALOFT...AND
WEAKENING/BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SNOW CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
DRY RIDGE MOVING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE INLAND
TEMPERATURES REALLY FALL WERE SKIES CLEAR OUT. GOING FORECAST HAS
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER NEAR -20F AND THAT SEEMS
FAIRLY REASONABLE. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THOSE VALUES...SINCE
SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS EVEN HAVE VALUES AROUND -24F AND BASED
OFF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS IT DOESN/T SEEM
TOO UNREASONABLE. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH
FOR WIND CHILLS TO NOSE INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT WITH WINDS
LOOKING TO BE WELL BELOW 10MPH...SHOULD NOT NEED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AND LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
START A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER...BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL...FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS ON THE WHERE THE PIECES OF ENERGY
TRACK...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR SOME ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY TO SWEEP THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA
FOR A WEST TO EAST PUSH OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE CWA.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY AND ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THIS
TIME...THE GFS/GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
INTENSIFYING THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TRACKS A WEAKER LOW FARTHER
SOUTH AND SLOWER THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TRADITIONAL FASTER
GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS USUALLY MERGING AND SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCES...THINK THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE NEAR
ADVISORY SNOWFALL AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
WILL KEEP POPS AT THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...MODELS SHOW A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCE A DRY FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW PUSH OF WIND TOWARD IWD SHOULD ALLOW
MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PUSH N OF THE SITE WITH MVFR CEILINGS
REMAINING DOMINANT. CMX WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AND
LOWER VIS WITH -SHSN AS SAW IS IN A MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WITH
THIS WIND DIRECTION. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL STILL KEEP VFR TO
HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS OFF AND ON AT BOTH IWD AND SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
1239 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS DUE TO THE WINDS
LINGERING AROUND 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MAINLY DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD TONIGHT...A HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE. EXPECT A RIDGE TO
SET UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MAIN HIGH SINKS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY...AND EXITS
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT NE TO S HUDSON BAY WHILE DRAGGING A
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1233 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS
LED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NWS ILN FORECAST AREA. WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH (WHERE COLD
ADVECTION IS BEGINNING) HAS LED TO SOME SMALL AREAS OF
ENHANCEMENT. ONE BAND THAT SET UP ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA PRODUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE AND QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO (EVEN UP TO THREE) INCHES. ASIDE FROM JUST
THE SNOW...VISIBILITIES ARE LOW AROUND THE AREA ANYWAY...WITH SOME
MIST OR FOG ALSO PRESENT. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE
SATURATED AS THE SNOW HAS BEGUN...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO HAVE
ENDED.
THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL OHIO QUITE NICELY...AND SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WERE MINOR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY SNOWFALL IS NOW
ENTERING THE ILN CWA...THOUGH FLURRIES ARE NOTED ON SURFACE OBS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF INDIANA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL START OUT THE NEAR TERM. SNOW EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN CLEAR OFF TO THE
EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF
I-70 WHERE FORCING IS A BIT BETTER AND SNOW MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES THERE. FURTHER SOUTH SNOW WILL ONLY
OCCUR FOR A BRIEF TIME AND MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS HEADING SOUTH WITH ONLY A
DUSTING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS FORECAST CLOSE TO MOS
CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
IMPULSE TONIGHT SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS COLDER GFS MOS. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND
EVEN JUST LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND
AMPLIFICATION OF SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SYSTEM PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS
TIMING UNCERTAINTY WHETHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MODERATE ALTHOUGH STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY 18Z...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES. WHILE LIGHT SNOW MAY KEEP SLIGHTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT COLUMBUS...THE REST OF
THE TAFS WILL REMAIN DRY.
CLEARING IS WORKING INTO INDIANA...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE VFR
CEILING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE TAFS IS A LITTLE BIT
UNCERTAIN...BUT FORECAST TRENDS ARE POINTING TOWARD A SCOURING OF
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE ONLY PATCHES OF MVFR
CLOUDS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
249 PM PST SUN FEB 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL
AND RADAR RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHERN CAL. THE RAP SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF SNEAKING INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS EVENING, BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THEN A FEW TICKS ON
THE RAIN GAGE. THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL QUICKLY ZIP EAST AND
WE`LL SEE STEADY PRECIPITATION DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, I`M NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION. WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY IN
SOUTHERN OREGON.
A WEAK FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST RANGE...NORTHWEST DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND NORTHERN CASCADES. NORTHERN CAL AND MUCH OF THE EASTSIDE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG
UP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE I`M FAIRLY
CONFIDENT WE`LL REMAIN DRY.
OF BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY AND TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION AIMED
RIGHT AT US. THE GFS SHOWS 925 MB WINDS PUSHING 65 KTS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. IF THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT, THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING A
HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTH COAST.
AT THE SAME TIME, MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE
COAST RANGE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO HAVE PRECIP AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
RANGE, 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. KEEP IN MID THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND THE
SPECIFICS OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD CHANGE. EVEN THOUGH RIVER
FLOWS HAVE BEEN LOW, THEY WILL COME UP AND IF WE GET A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION, THEY WILL COME UP AND
IF NOTHING ELSE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT RAPID RISES ALONG SOME OF
THE SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
HIGH (BETWEEN 7500 AND 8000 FEET) ON WEDNESDAY -PETRUCELLI
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
FRONTS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE WET AS THE JET STREAM
REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND A LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE 12Z MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE PACNW EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, MODELS ARE
ALSO INDICATING A PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AIMED
AT THE AREA. THE GFS AND GEFS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ORIGINATING FROM NEAR HAWAII AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HIGH
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS, MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. ALSO
AS THE STRONG FRONT MOVES INLAND, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SUMMER LAKE AND SHASTA VALLEY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IN PARTICULAR LINGERS THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD MOISTURE WOULD PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GEFS
PUSH THE FRONT INLAND FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
THEN ON SATURDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER MODERATE TO
STRONG FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA. THE GFS, GEFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST EARLY SATURDAY
THEN INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EMCWF DEPICTS THE LOW CENTER FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND WOULD SUPPORT AND INCREASED CHANCE FOR
STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, POSSIBLY DOWN TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET. /CC
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 09/18Z TAF CYCLE.
A LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING BUT VALLEYS IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS EVENING AND CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
ALSO EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. /CC
&&
.MARINE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH AND A LOW WILL MOVING INLAND TO THE
SOUTH. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY. THEN EXPECT SEVERAL STRONGER FRONTS TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
GRADUALLY LOWER ON THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING CONTINUED
VERY STEEP TO STEEP SEAS TO THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
FRONTS ARE POSSIBLY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
900 AM PST SUN FEB 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL KEEP A COLD EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE GORGE INTO MON MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IN AND NEAR THE
GORGE. MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL RETURN LATER MON AND REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES IN OFF THE PACIFIC BRINGING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN.
&&
.UPDATE...ALSO WILL ADD THE FOG INTO THE GRIDS AND CUT TEMPS. WARM
ADVECTION OVER COLD SNOW PACK WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FOG AND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. PLUS WITH NO SE GRADIENT UNTIL
OVERNIGHT THERE IS NO REAL WARM UP EXPECTED UNLESS THERE WERE CLOUD
BREAKS WHICH LOOK UNLIKELY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR OTHER PARTS OF
THE VALLEY FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS FAR AS FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES...INCLUDING ANY COLD AIR BANKED UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY.
925 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN AN EAST WEST
ORIENTATION EXTENDING FROM ABOUT SALEM/PORTLAND WESTWARD TO WELL
OFFSHORE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS A BIT MORE DIFFUSE FARTHER
SOUTH...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH PACIFIC ENERGY THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY 31-34....AND CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM
SALEM NORTHWARD WHERE READINGS ARE STILL GENERALLY IN THE 20S. THE
SALEM SOUNDING DOES SHOW A VERY LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WITH THE TOP OF
THE MOIST LAYER AT -7C SO NOT VERY DEEP SATURATION...AND KPTV TOWER
TEMP AT 1800 FEET SHOWS 34F...SO AT LEAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN
PRECIP TYPE BEING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
APPROACHING SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
GRAZE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHAT
TEMPERATURES WILL DO. NOW FORTUNATELY MOST MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT QPF
WITH THIS...FROM VERY LITTLE TO UP TO MAYBE 0.05".LATEST RAP AND HRRR
KEEP THE DRIZZLE/LIGHT PRECIP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN AS THE WAVE OFFSHORE MOVES CLOSER THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO WILL EXTEND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO POCKETS OF COLD AIR STILL TRAPPED IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS OF THE COAST RANGE...WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA SO WILL ALSO
HAVE THE ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AS THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES. THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS
THE DAY TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH NOT MUCH. MEANWHILE WITH
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SNOW PACK THERE IS SOME FOG AND VERY LOW
STRATUS IN PLACE..WITH DENSE FOG AROUND EUGENE. AND FOG INCREASING
THROUGH THE VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE MOISTURE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND THEN WE GET A BREAK FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS IN
PORTLAND SUGGEST THAT INITIAL P-TYPE MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST 7 AM. YOU COULD REASONABLY ARGUE THAT THERE STILL
COULD BE POCKETS OF TRAPPED COLD LOW LEVEL AIR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
THAT WILL NOT BE SCOURED OUT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM COMES IN...WITH A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD NORTH. THE MORNING PRECIP IS LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH BUT COULD FEASIBLY BE ALL FREEZING RAIN IN THE EAST METRO
AREA...AND CONFINED EAST OF I-205 BY LATER MORNING. RAW SOUNDING
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN SUSPECT TO THIS POINT WITH THE LOW LEVEL AIR
WOULD SUGGEST THIS THREAT GOES AWAY BETWEEN 15Z-18Z AS THE PRECIP IS
GOING IN...BUT THERE IS STILL AN EAST GRADIENT THROUGH THE
GORGE...SO IT IS THE MORNING PERIOD THAT IS IN QUESTION. IT COULD
BE SOONER BUT WELL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTH GRADIENT.
THE GORGE CONTINUES A CHANCE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE EAST
GRADIENT GETS WASHED AWAY. /KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE CREPT BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING IN EUGENE THOUGH...BUT SOUTH WINDS HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE
AND REALIZE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. CONSIDERING MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SCOUR OUT OF THIS COLD
POOL POORLY AROUND EUGENE...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE WARM UP ACROSS
THE REST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY REMAINS LOW.
NONETHELESS...WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 31F TO 32F
RANGE FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTHWARD...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN
FURTHER NORTH THAT MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
LATER THIS MORNING.
CLOSER TO PORTLAND...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS MORE TRICKY WITH
COLD AIR CONTINUING TO POOR OUT OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S. THE KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE
GRADIENT JUST DIPPED UNDER 5MB. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL LOWER CLOSER
TO 2MB THIS MORNING...WHICH IS LIKELY OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT...I KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE PORTLAND AIRPORT BELOW FREEZING...WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB WARM FRONT APPROACHES...PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH MAY ALSO CAUSE COLD
AIR TO BANK UP AGAINST THE COAST RANGE IN WESTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTY...AND PERHAPS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS MCMINNVILLE. THIS COULD MAKE
THESE LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO STAYING BELOW FREEZING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE. AS A RESULT...I KEPT A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
IN THE MEANTIME...DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AREA AND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. AS A RESULT...A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE METRO...AND A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WHERE GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE RESIDES. ICE OR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT...LIKELY ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST...BUT
THIS WILL NONETHELESS CONTINUE TO ADD THE MESS ALREADY IN PLACE.
/NEUMAN
WHATEVER COLD AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD ON IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY
AND THROUGH THE GORGE IS LIKELY TO FINALLY BE OVERWHELMED DURING THE
DAY MON. OFFSHORE PRES GRADIENTS WHICH HOLD ON IN MOST MODELS
THROUGH 12Z MON RELAX CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES INLAND AND A SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS DEVELOPS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION HOWEVER APPEAR HEADED N OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
POPS THOUGH MON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILS THE WARM FRONT AND DIPS
INTO NW OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS SOME THREAT OF RAIN IN MON NIGHT AND TUE.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY TUE AS MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER A DEEP MOIST LAYER SEEN ON 290K AND
300K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. WITH A MORE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN MON INTO
TUE...WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LIKE TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH A ZONAL FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS EFFECTIVELY SHOULD
BRING WET WEATHER AT TIMES WITH TEMPS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A RATHER WET LOOKING
SYSTEM IN TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS LIKE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTS. A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW TRACK LIKE THE 06Z
GFS RUN WOULD BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST...BUT
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT REMAINS AT THIS POINT DUE TO MODEL VARIANCES.
ANOTHER WET SYSTEM IS AGREED UPON AROUND THU NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH
HIGHEST POPS FOR THESE TWO SYSTEMS. BEYOND THAT MODELS STRUGGLE A
BIT WITH AGREEING ON DETAILS...BUT OVERALL FEEL FROM THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED IS THAT WEAKER SYSTEMS WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...PLENTY OF IFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT MAINTAINING NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH AREAS
OF -FZDZ IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS NORTH OF KSLE. THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE LOWER LAYER COLDER AIR
TODAY...CONFINING ANY FREEZING PRECIP TO NEAR THE COLUMBIA
GORGE...KPDX AND INTO SW WA. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR AND LOW-END VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO MVFR OR
IFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIFR. MTNS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TONIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z. INTERMITTENT -FZDZ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS
LOOK TO IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AND POSSIBLY TO LOW-END
VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A RETURN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...AND THEN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT -5 MB AT
16Z AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND THAT VALUE THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING
IN 20-30KT GUSTS AT THE WEST END OF THE GORGE. WEISHAAR
&&
.MARINE...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN TO 15 KT OR LESS AND WILL STAY AT OR BELOW
THAT LEVEL THROUGH THIS EVENING. NEXT WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE
WATERS THIS EVENING...AND BY MIDNIGHT SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS RAMP
UP TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ALREADY IN PLACE. MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM ENTERS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTERNOON WITH SOLID GALES DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING. COULD
SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 KT WITH THIS ONE. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH-
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR EVEN GALE WIND SPEEDS.
SEAS TO STAY AROUND 5-6 FT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT RISE ABOUT 10 FT
TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS PUSHING NEAR 15 FT THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST TODAY FOR GREATER
PORTLAND METRO AREA...LOWER COLUMBIA...NORTH OREGON COAST
RANGE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST TODAY FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA...WILLAPA HILLS...AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR
IN COWLITZ COUNTY.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM
PST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
841 AM PST SUN FEB 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING OVER THE REGION. SEXTON SUMMIT REPORTED LIGHT RAIN LAST
HOUR, BUT NOTHING IN THE MOST RECENT REPORT. THE 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP RUN SHOWS LITTLE OF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER OREGON, BUT
INCREASING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT WAVE
REACHES THE COAST. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR ALL AREAS THIS
MORNING AND MAINLY OVER OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S GOING TO BE A
FINE LINE FROM NEARLY NOTHING TO STEADY RAIN ALONG THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM KEEP MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN CAL TONIGHT AND NOT
MUCH ELSE ON OREGON. WE`LL LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DETAIL THIS
MORNING. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.MARINE...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM PST SUN FEB 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...TWO-DAY LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA
ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST AND COAST RANGES WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
GENERALLY 0.50-1.00 INCH OF RAIN FELL OVER THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE
CASCADES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHILE
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH WERE OBSERVED OVER MANY OF THE
VALLEYS/BASINS OF THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WHILE
THIS WAS MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION, IT REALLY HASN`T PUT MUCH OF A
DENT IN THE DEFICITS SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER. WE`LL NEED SEVERAL
MORE OF THESE EVENTS IN THE NEXT MONTH OR SO TO REALLY MAKE UP FOR
LOST TIME.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY
RESULTING IN SOME MORE RAIN FOR AREAS THAT BADLY NEED IT.
WE`VE SEEN SNOW LEVELS RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE 6000 FEET IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, BUT THEY`RE AROUND 5000-5500 FEET IN SW OREGON. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN OMINOUS-LOOKING SHIELD OF MID-
HIGH CLOUD MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME IS DIRECTED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THIS TIME AROUND WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE OR/CA
BORDER. RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN SNEAKING
NORTHWARD INTO SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS RAIN SHIELD TO EXPAND ACROSS NORCAL DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE ACROSS SW OREGON AND
DON`T EXPECT MUCH TO HIT THE RAIN GAUGES IN THE VALLEYS WITH A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE. THERE MAY BE A TENTH TO TWO-
TENTHS IN THE COAST RANGES, SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN EXPECTED IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO THIS
EVENING THEN MOVE INTO NEVADA BY MONDAY MORNING...EFFECTIVELY
SHUTTING OFF THE FAUCET FOR A WHILE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONT TO THE COAST MONDAY, BUT IT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS FROM BROOKINGS NORTHWARD, BUT SHOWERS CHANCES
DIMINISH FARTHER INLAND AND PROBABLY DO NOT GET MUCH PAST THE
CASCADE CREST. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SERIES OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AT THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN THE FIRST
SYSTEM, PREFERRING TO BRING IT ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO, HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS HERE TO SLOW THINGS DOWN
A BIT. SPILDE
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM OVER THE REGION AS WELL AS
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FRONTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVE LOWS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH FOR THIS EVENT, GENERALLY AT
OR ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE FIRST OF THESE LOWS MOVES INLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THEN ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THIS SECOND LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MSLP FIELD. SO HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL EXPECT THESE
SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MODELS SHOW A WESTERLY 700 MB JET OF 55 TO
75 KT MOVING OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY EVENING ANOTHER JET OF 50 TO
60 KT IS POSSIBLE. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE SUMMER LAKE AND SHASTA VALLEY
AREAS.
VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES THURSDAY WITH THE GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BUILD THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, LOWERING TO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BRING A BRIEF DRYING TREND
THOUGH. ON SATURDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MOVING INLAND. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET THEN LOWER
BEHIND THE FRONT, POSSIBLY DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET. AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A UPPER LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA,
EXPECT THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE BEYOND SATURDAY. /CC
AVIATION...CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR
OR BETTER EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH LOCAL IFR IS EXPECTED AT
THE COAST, ESPECIALLY FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTH. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING SPREADING PRECIPITATION
INTO SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO
IT WILL BE RAIN. THIS COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR LATER THIS
MORNING IN SOME AREAS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OR/CA BORDER. -WRIGHT/SPILDE
MARINE...ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER TODAY WITH WIND WAVE
DOMINATED SEAS HAVING TRANSITIONED TO A FRESH SOUTHWEST SWELL. THIS
SWELL IS MODERATE, HAS A SHORT PERIOD, AND WILL MIX WITH A SHORT
PERIOD WEST SWELL TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
REMAIN MODERATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN ADDITIONAL
FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
-WRIGHT/SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1122 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
The cold front has moved through KABI with north winds around 12
kts. Low clouds and fog to the north of this front have moved to
within 20 nm of KABI but seemed to have stalled over the past half
hour. With peak heating nigh, my gut says the clouds will generally
remain north of KABI through mid-afternoon. I did include a tempo
beginning at 20z for BKN004, however, just in case these clouds do
slip a bit farther south. Once insolation begins to wane, this front
will accelerate south, moving across the remainder of the area
during the evening hours. These low clouds and fog will follow suit,
with IFR (or worse) conditions anticipated areawide overnight
through 18z Monday. I did include freezing drizzle at KABI, KSJT,
and KBBD beginning late evening with visibilities of 3 miles or
less. Accumulations are expected to be light, but present,
nonetheless.
Johnson
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/
UPDATE...
A quick forecast update was sent out to bring current temperatures
back in line with recent trends. Temperatures remain near freezing
along the I-10 corridor with a mixture of 30s and 40s across most of
the remaining counties. However, the leading edge of a strong cold
front has moved into the Big Country, dropping temperatures to near
30 degrees across Haskell, Throckmorton, and Shackelford Counties.
We continue to receive reports of freezing fog across this area but
as temperatures slowly warm, the potential for additional ice
accumulations will decrease. Visibilities should slowly improve so
no dense fog advisory will be issued. I also increased sky cover to
account for the increase in high clouds. Max temps were left alone
for now but I`ll continue to watch the progress of the cold front
and adjust forecast temperatures as needed.
Johnson
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected today at the TAF sites. An initial
cold front will sag south to KABI 17Z-18Z, resulting in a shift
to northeast winds 5-10 KT. Any fog this morning and low cloud
cover today are expected to remain north of Abilene. For the
other TAF sites, winds today will be generally southwest at
6-12 KT. A reinforced cold front will push south across central and
southern sections of West Central Texas tonight. The front should
arrive at KSJT 02-03Z, and should reach the Interstate 10 corridor
07Z-08Z. Winds will shift to the northeast with the frontal passage.
A degradation of conditions from VFR to IFR and possibly LIFR is
expected, from north to south tonight. This will occur as low
cloud cover expands to the south behind the front, with areas of
drizzle and freezing drizzle developing.
19
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A nearly stationary surface boundary extends from the eastern Texas
Panhandle south to just northeast of Jayton, then east across
Haskell and Throckmorton Counties. Temperatures are colder behind
east/north of this boundary, where low cloudiness has filled in with
areas of freezing fog. A strong cold front is moving south across
Kansas. The NAM12 and RUC13 models appear to have the best handle on
this boundary...and have it sagging south as a cold front to the
Interstate 20 corridor by 11 AM to Noon, and then drifting a little
farther south early this afternoon. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
strong cold front will quickly move south today, entering the Big
Country this afternoon and overtaking the lead boundary by late
afternoon or evening.
Carrying the inherited mention of fog early this morning across the
area roughly north of a Rotan to Albany line, with freezing fog in
the northern parts of Haskell and Throckmorton Counties where
temperatures are at or just below freezing. With the marginally
freezing temperatures and visibility with the fog to stay above one
mile, not expecting any road ice problems this morning aross that
area. Low cloud cover will be persistent through the day today
across Haskell and Throckmorton counties.
Temperature forecast today is tricky across the Big Country (area
along/north of Interstate 20) with the initial frontal boundary.
Made reductions across that area, where highs should be reached
early this afternoon before temperatures level off and then slowly
drop. Highs across that area are expected to range from the upper
30s/near 40 in Haskell and Throckmorton Counties, to the mid to
upper 50s along Interstate 20 and 60s just south of I-20. Farther to
the south, temperatures will be warm again today, with afternoon
highs in the 70s to near 80 with mostly sunny skies.
This evening and tonight, the reinforced cold front will push south
through our central and southern counties, reaching the Interstate
10 corridor by 2 AM. Model boundary layer moisture fields indicate
extensive low cloud cover developing south across West Central Texas
behind the cold front, with areas of drizzle developing. With strong
cold air advection, temperatures will drop to below freezing tonight
across our northern and central counties, to the mid/upper 30s along
and south of Interstate 10. With a weak overrunning pattern setting
up and given the extent of boundary layer moistening, carrying areas
of drizzle and freezing drizzle tonight until mid-morning Monday,
with freezing drizzle mentioned where temperatures drop below
freezing.
19
LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Winter precipitation possible Monday night and Tuesday...
A cold surface ridge will be entrenched across the area Monday
into Tuesday with temperatures remaining well below normal. An
upper level trough will approach the area on Monday and move
across the area on Tuesday. Still looks like the best chance
for precipitation will be on Tuesday when lift from the upper
trough will be greatest. Temperatures will be cold Monday and
Tuesday with highs both days in the 30s across much of the area
with the exception of far southern counties where some low to
mid 40s are expected. Temperatures will fall into the 20s areawide
Monday night.
Made only minor changes to the forecast Monday night and Tuesday,
mainly for precipitation type. Model forecast soundings continue
to show a substantial warm layer aloft for much of this time
period and a lack of moisture within the dendritic growth zone.
This type of profile will favor a combination of freezing rain and
sleet Monday night into Tuesday morning, with rain across southern
sections and a winter mix across northern sections by Tuesday
afternoon. Profiles due appear a bit more favorable for some snow
to mix in mainly north of I-20 on Tuesday. At the present time,
precipitation amounts are expected to be very light for this
event, generally one tenth inch or less water equivalent with
only minor snow and ice accumulations.
Dry and warmer weather returns to the area Wednesday through
Saturday with above normal temperatures through the period. The
only mentionable feature will be a weak front on Saturday, with
only slightly cooler temperatures into Sunday.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 25 36 23 37 / 0 10 10 20 30
San Angelo 79 30 41 26 39 / 0 10 10 20 30
Junction 79 37 45 29 42 / 0 10 20 20 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
235 PM PST Sun Feb 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will see a break in the prolonged stretch of
winter weather tonight however that will come to an end by Monday
as a strong warm front moves into the area. The warm front will
begin to scour the cold air out of the valleys but before another
round of light to moderate snow is dumped across much of the
region. More fronts will track the region during the week. Each
will deliver periods of precipitation...however the valleys will
finally change from snow to rain as temperatures climb above
freezing for the first time this month. Meanwhile...significant
snows are expected to fall over most of the mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Weather scenario for tonight will be markedly quieter
and drier than what we have experienced over the past several
nights. The latest satellite pictures continue to show a broad
plume of cloudiness covering most of the Inland Northwest save a
small portion of extreme NE Washington and the northern Panhandle
of Idaho. Meanwhile radar was only detecting a smattering of light
precipitation echoes over the SE corner of Washington and NC
Idaho. These echoes were the result of mid-level moisture and low-
level isentropic ascent combining for very light snow. The radar
echoes were finally reflecting what some of the model guidance was
showing...unlike earlier today. Both the NAM and HRRR were showing
this region of light precipitation persisting through mid-evening
before being shunted to the south. QPF amounts from this activity
should be very light with snowfall accumulations generally be an
inch or less. In most cases much less. Meanwhile the focus for the
later half of tonight will revolve around diffuse warm front
currently sweeping through SW Washington. This band of
precipitation will move into the northern Cascades before midnight
as it travels to the northeast. Not sure how far the precipitation
will cross over the Cascades as the isentropic ascent isn`t
terribly strong. Nonetheless we will raise precipitation chances
overnight for most of the Cascades and the Okanogan
Valley/Highlands. Once again precipitation amounts will remain
light. fx
Monday through Tuesday night...A very active and progressively wet
pattern will affect the region for the first part of the work week.
Two systems will impact the Inland Northwest with little evidence of
a break separating them. The first round of precipitation will start
Monday as a warm front spreads light snow across the forecast area.
Cold air will be in place at the surface but will eventually be
overrun by warm air in the mid levels being pushed into the area on
southerly flow. Initial light snow may change over to sleet or
freezing rain in the lower basin Monday evening. This threat will
spread north to the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area and Waterville
Plateau overnight. Warm air will eventually make it to the surface
across the southern valleys but p-type should remain snow for the
valleys north of I-90. We could see advisory snowfall amounts
accumulating for the east slopes of the Cascades and northeast
zones. The moisture plume is not as impressive as earlier advertised
with p-wats closer to normal for this first system so reaching
winter highlight criteria in the valleys is not a slam dunk. There
is not a true cold front with this system, but rather a wind shift
to the west that may bring a brief respite to the basin.
The second system follows right on the heels of the first and has a
much more impressive tap into deep Pacific moisture. QPF potential
will be in the 0.25 to 0.75 inches in the valleys with 1 to 2 inches
or even higher amounts in the mountains. The Palouse will see most
of this as rain. We will be watching local rivers carefully for
possible ice breakup and resultant flooding. The warm front will
push more warm air in from the south, changing precip over to rain
for the southern third of the forecast area Tuesday. Snow levels
will be on the rise and even the northernmost valleys could change
over to rain by Tuesday night. The mountain zones will likely
receive heavy snow from this extended event and the passes will be
affected. Winter highlights will likely be needed for portions of
the forecast area for this second system. Winds will strengthen
and become gusty starting Tuesday afternoon and continuing through
Wednesday. Warm air advection and gusty winds will aid in bringing
temperatures back up to normal readings and possibly above by
Tuesday night. /Kelch
Wednesday: Models still agree on a progressive unsettled weather
period through the remainder of the work week. Models are still
differing a bit on the details. Looks like a surface low coupled
with a wave riding along the westerly flow and a 120 kt upper
level jet streak will be moving through the Inland Northwest
Wednesday. Models do agree the heavier precipitation will fall
during the morning hours and by afternoon the heavier precip will
reside across the crest of the Cascade mountains and most of north
ID. This surface low is moving in from the southwest and will
therefore be ushering some slightly warmer temperatures. Warm
enough that most valley locations will not cool to below freezing
temps Wed morning...so the Wed event should be a rain event for a
pretty widespread area. The exception to this would be the
northern WA and ID valleys such as Omak, Republic, Colville and
Sandpoint where they could see wet snow before changing over to
rain sometime in the morning. The pressure gradient still looks
packed together to create south to west winds...mainly for
portions of the Columbia Basin, Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas.
Wednesday night through Thursday: Strong westerly flow prevails
which will keep showers in the forecast. There will be some dry
periods across portions of the Basin north through the Okanogan
Valley and Highlands because of downsloping off the Cascades.
Otherwise mostly cloudy with temperatures around average for this
time of the year. Southwest winds will remain elevated for the
Palouse and into portions of Spokane County.
Thursday night and Friday: We get an influx of moisture moving
into the area as a broad ridge builds over the Pac NW and a trough
moves towards southern Canada. The 12z EC as well as the 18Z GFS
have slowed the timing down a bit, but it looks as though sometime
Friday a front moves through. Currently models suggest some good
upslope flow into the Cascade valleys and Basin ahead of the front
Friday morning. Then by afternoon the Basin gets shadowed out as
the precipitation is more confined to eastern WA and north ID...and
the Cascade crest. Once again temps remain quite mild before the
front passes and so most valley locations should see rain. Once
again winds will be on the breezy side for portions of the Basin,
Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas. /Nisbet
Friday night through Sunday: A zonal flow pattern is expected to
keep this period pretty active. With a wave of precip exiting late
Friday, another wave is predicted to pass through the region
Saturday afternoon bringing another round of precip. There is a
slight warming trend with this pattern. Warmer temps could
generate a rain/snow mix for the lower Columbia Basin and some of
the valleys among the mountains if precip occurs during the day.
Snow is expected for the region for precip during the evening
hours. Winds will be breezy in the Palouse and Camas Prairie
regions with gusts around the mid 20s MPH. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Very low confidence forecast as model guidance is
quite poor with extremely variable conditions over short
distances. Case in point the GEG-COE corridor. GEG was seeing
light snow and LIFR cigs while not far away COE was seeing no
snow and VFR cigs. In between SFF was seeing VFR conditions and
light snow. Meanwhile BUFKIT data for GEG EAT and PUW was showing
periods of snow through at least the first half of the
forecast...while SFF and COE are only expected to see several
hours of snow. Generally speaking the obs were not matching the
guidance...not even close. Best we can do is track the weather to
the shortwave trough currently over SC BC. This feature will pass
most of the sites between 21-23z...and we will keep a mention of
-SN or VCSH at least until it passes. Conditions will generally be
MVFR by brief IFR is possible mainly at GEG. At MWH and EAT
conditions will generally vary with cigs remaining between 025-050
ft. Hard to have much confidence in tonight`s forecast given the
track record of the models in the short-term. Suspect stratus clouds
will remain firmly entrenched over all sites through the night
however PUW and LWS could see some improvement as winds turn
increasingly offshore. The next round of precipitation will arrive
just after 18z Mon...but could impact EAT a little earlier than
that. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 18 29 27 36 33 38 / 20 70 50 70 80 80
Coeur d`Alene 19 31 28 36 32 38 / 30 80 60 80 90 80
Pullman 22 34 31 39 35 41 / 40 70 50 70 90 80
Lewiston 26 39 34 42 37 44 / 40 60 50 60 80 60
Colville 16 30 26 36 32 41 / 20 70 60 80 90 70
Sandpoint 18 30 27 35 32 38 / 30 80 80 80 100 90
Kellogg 20 31 29 35 32 37 / 80 80 80 80 100 90
Moses Lake 17 29 27 38 34 42 / 10 40 30 50 60 40
Wenatchee 20 29 26 38 32 39 / 10 60 40 50 60 40
Omak 18 30 22 35 30 39 / 20 60 40 60 60 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$