Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/07/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A STRONGER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN AZ.
CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING VIRGA/SPRINKLES HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA. THIS CREATED AN AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THAT QUICKLY FILLED IN THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE IN THIS AREA...THOUGH MODEST FORCING FOR
UVM HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED VORT MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING TREND TO FOLLOW FOR THIS
EVENING.
FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BE ANOTHER WEAK
PACIFIC TROUGH FOR THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE SUITE OF LOCAL HI-RES WRFS SUGGEST THAT
SPRINKLES MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS POINT TO NORTHERN AZ FOR THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE AND SHARP HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND STAY THERE THROUGH TUESDAY DESPITE A PASSING SHORT
WAVE MONDAY. WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR...LOW TEMPS WILL BE AT
THEIR COOLEST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH CLEARING OF LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...NOT AS
INTENSE OF A SYSTEM AS FIRST THOUGHT A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT
NONETHELESS IT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD SEE
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN ACROSS THE
DESERTS OF THE PHOENIX AREA. ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS WOULD BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TOTAL. FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS STRONG DRY ADVECTION
THAT WAS FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY. ELEVATED
HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...NOTHING
TOO STRONG EVEN WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY...TYPICAL DIURNAL
DRAINAGE/UPSLOPE PATTERNS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY AND
ISOLATED SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A STRONGER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS
ISOLATED RETURNS IN THE 5 TO 15 DBZ RANGE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS FALLING IS LIKELY EVAPORATING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND EVEN A LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY NEAR SCOTTSDALE AND FOUNTAIN HILLS.
HI-RES WRFS STILL INDICATE THAT MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WILL TAKE PLACE A BIT
FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ AND MARICOPA
COUNTIES. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...SKY AND QPF ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE AFTERNOON PRECIP.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING MORE QPF WITH THIS ONE THAN THE ONE FOR
TODAY AND NOW THE GFS AGREES BUT WITH LOWER AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE THE
NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON THE DEPTH OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERALL...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...LESS SO OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE AND PRECEDING
SHORT WAVES LEAVING BEHIND SOME MOISTURE IT WILL BE A LITTLE EASIER
TO PRODUCE PRECIP SLIGHT CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY START THURSDAY
MORNING...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE BIT FASTER WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE
AND THUS MODIFIED THE POPS TO START EARLIER AND EXIT SOONER. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DIP BELOW 5500 FEET BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 5000
FEET OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH VERY MODEST PRECIP AND RELATIVELY
HIGH SNOW LEVELS...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW TO MENTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND STAY THERE THROUGH TUESDAY DESPITE A PASSING SHORT
WAVE MONDAY. WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR...LOW TEMPS WILL BE AT
THEIR COOLEST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH CLEARING OF LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...NOT AS
INTENSE OF A SYSTEM AS FIRST THOUGHT A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT
NONETHELESS IT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD SEE
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN ACROSS THE
DESERTS OF THE PHOENIX AREA. ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS WOULD BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TOTAL. FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS STRONG DRY ADVECTION
THAT WAS FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY. ELEVATED
HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...NOTHING
TOO STRONG EVEN WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY...TYPICAL DIURNAL
DRAINAGE/UPSLOPE PATTERNS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY AND
ISOLATED SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A STRONGER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS
ISOLATED RETURNS IN THE 5 TO 15 DBZ RANGE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS FALLING IS LIKELY EVAPORATING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND EVEN A LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY NEAR SCOTTSDALE AND FOUNTAIN HILLS.
HI-RES WRFS STILL INDICATE THAT MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WILL TAKE PLACE A BIT
FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ AND MARICOPA
COUNTIES. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...SKY AND QPF ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE AFTERNOON PRECIP.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING MORE QPF WITH THIS ONE THAN THE ONE FOR
TODAY AND NOW THE GFS AGREES BUT WITH LOWER AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE THE
NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON THE DEPTH OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERALL...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...LESS SO OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE AND PRECEDING
SHORT WAVES LEAVING BEHIND SOME MOISTURE IT WILL BE A LITTLE EASIER
TO PRODUCE PRECIP SLIGHT CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY START THURSDAY
MORNING...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE BIT FASTER WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE
AND THUS MODIFIED THE POPS TO START EARLIER AND EXIT SOONER. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DIP BELOW 5500 FEET BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 5000
FEET OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH VERY MODEST PRECIP AND RELATIVELY
HIGH SNOW LEVELS...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW TO MENTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND STAY THERE THROUGH TUESDAY DESPITE A PASSING SHORT
WAVE MONDAY. WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR...LOW TEMPS WILL BE AT
THEIR COOLEST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD 6-8KFT CIGS THROUGH APPROX 18Z...WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AT ANY
OF THE TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOME VIRGA OR A SPRINKLE AT WORST. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CIGS AROUND 12KFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
AFTER 18Z. PRECIP NOT EXPECTED ANY EITHER TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...NOT AS
INTENSE OF A SYSTEM AS FIRST THOUGHT A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT
NONETHELESS IT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD SEE
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN ACROSS THE
DESERTS OF THE PHOENIX AREA. ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS WOULD BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TOTAL. FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS STRONG DRY ADVECTION
THAT WAS FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY. ELEVATED
HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...NOTHING
TOO STRONG EVEN WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY...TYPICAL DIURNAL
DRAINAGE/UPSLOPE PATTERNS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
841 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH SNOW
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. HAVE UPDATED ALL
ZONES TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...IN MOST
CASES INCREASING VALUES. LATEST HIRES AND RAP MODELS ALL SUGGEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS BECOMING A BIT MORE ACTIVE WE MOVE INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL UTAH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
REALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRIDAY MORNING.
NEW ADVISORIES OUT FOR THE SAN JUANS AND ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
FROM GLENWOOD SPRINGS EAST STARTING TONIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DOWNGRADED WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES FOR THE GRAND MESA AND
NIXED THE WARNING FOR THE ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. VERY LITTLE
FORCING IS INVOLVED WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH HAS MADE THE FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT. WITH
WARM AIR OVERRUNNING COLD AIR POOL AT THE SFC ON FRIDAY...THE
CHANCE REMAINS FOR LIGHT SNOW AROUND MUCH OF THE REGION. KEPT LOW POPS
IN THE GRAND VALLEY AS THE WESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORABLE WITH
OVERRUNNING INVOLVED BUT WITHOUT ANY FRONTOGENICAL FORCING...AM
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT ON THE SCENARIO PANNING OUT DUE TO THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE PATTERN AND MODELS GREATLY
UNDER PERFORMING FOR TODAYS FORECAST. PWATS ARE INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FRIDAY (0.2 TO 0.3)...WHICH IS WHY
SNOW AMTS IN THE FORECAST HAVE DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
700 MB FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...WHICH WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
IN THE BIG PICTURE...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STREAM REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. MOISTURE WILL FLUCTUATE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AT TIMES AS THE POSITION OF THE JET SHIFTS FROM OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES PASS. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
GENERAL SOLUTION...BUT THE DETAILS HAVE BEEN FAR MORE PROBLEMATIC.
ON SAT A 120+KT UPPER JET CORE WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A DEEPER SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN INCREASED OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER
OTHER LIFTING MECHANISMS REMAIN WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
HINTED AT EARLY SAT...BUT THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AND UNIMPRESSIVE.
THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY...SO
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
THAT SAID...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHICS WILL
BECOME EXCELLENT. THEREFORE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY...AIDED BY SOME DIURNAL HEATING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT. ALSO
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FINALLY DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTERNOON AS
HEIGHTS LOWER. WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY SUNDAY AS THE JET
DROPS SOUTHWARD. BUT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DUE TO COOLING ALOFT...GOOD MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL
CONTINUE. BUT BEFORE ANY COOLING DEVELOPS SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS...EVEN IN THE FAR NORTH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PASS LATE MON/MON NIGHT...KEEPING SNOW LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS.
MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
DUE TO THE MOIST UNSETTLED FLOW. THE WARM AND UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE COLD VALLEYS TO APPROACH MORE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
EACH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER VALLEYS...WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 03-06Z. MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SNOW
WILL IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS AT TIMES. AIRPORTS FIRST AFFECTED WILL
BE KASE...KEGE...K5SM...KGUC...KTEX AND THEN AS SNOW SPREADS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT KPSO...KRIL...KMTJ... KDRO...KCEZ WILL
ALSO BE AFFECTED. OTHER AREA AIRPORTS AND TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM MST
SATURDAY COZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SATURDAY COZ004-010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST
FRIDAY NIGHT COZ018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MST SATURDAY
COZ008.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
605 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HEAVY SNOW AS WELL AS A TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR
TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** VERY HEAVY SNOW WITH 1 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS MORNING COMMUTE ***
605 AM UPDATE...
A CLASSIC FRONT END THUMP OF VERY HEAVY SNOW IS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WAS
RESULTING IN TREMENDOUS OMEGA IN THE SNOWGROWTH REGION...WITH 1 TO 3
INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. ROADWAYS ARE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
MESSY AND DANGEROUS MORNING RUSH HOUR. HAVE EVEN HEARD OF SOME ISOLATED
REPORTS OF THUNDER.
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAST THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
CHANGE PLACES OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. DUAL POL RADAR
INDICATING THAT TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WAS MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTH ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST
THROUGH 7 AM. THIS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEAST MA BETWEEN 8 AND 11 AM. GIVEN THAT ITS SNOWING SO
HARD...A SMALL TIMING ERROR IN THERMAL PROFILES WILL MAKE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN ACCUMULATIONS. WE STILL LIKE OUR CURRENT
SNOWFALL FORECAST WITH A GENERAL 5 TO 9 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
PIKE...EXCEPT LESS ON CAPE/ISLANDS. EXPECTING 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH
PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO THE NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE
FORM OF SNOW NORTH OF THE PIKE. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PIKE...TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN. A TENTH TO UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CT/WESTERN RI LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
ENOUGH TO CHANGE FAR SOUTHEAST MA/SOUTHERN RI TO ALL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW/MIXED PRECIP WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH OPEN 700 MB WAVE TO MOVE FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER TODAY. ONGOING SNOW
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT 12Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK FRONT END THUMP OF SNOW. WITH THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH EXCELLENT
SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECT SNOW FALL RATES BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR. THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND REDUCE VSBYS
AT OR BELOW A HALF OF A MILE.
AS THE DAY PROGRESS...APPEARS THAT A GOOD 800 MB WARM NOSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 13-15Z. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST OF THE
MODELS PUSHING A 3C WARM NOSE WITHIN THE THERMAL LAYER...WHERE AS
THE GFS IS ONLY A 1.5C WARM NOSE. REGARDLESS THERE IS A WARM NOSE
INTRUDING INTO THE LAYER WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL ALTER SNOWFALL TOTALS AND TRY TO SHOW THAT WITHIN THE
FORECAST. BEST LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
MA/RI/CT BORDER WHERE ICE ACCRETION MAY REACH BETWEEN AN TRACE
AND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS CENTRAL CT AND SOUTHERN RI. BELIEVE SLEET
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCE JUST SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE THE WARM
NOSE WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCE AND HYDROMETEORS WILL STRUGGLE TO
MELT FULLY. NORTH OF THE PIKE...WILL BE ALL SNOW.
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE WARM AIR WILL INCREASE SURFACE TEMPS
ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO JUST RAIN. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE NORTH OF THE PIKE. THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REALLY DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE BY 18Z BUT FEEL THAT THIS MAY BE TO QUICKLY ESP
LOOKING AT THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM. ONE THING TO NOTE AS PREV
FORECASTER DID IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
AT 700 MB...A DRY SLOT. THIS MAY SHUT DOWN THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW
SOUTH OF THE MA/CT/RI BORDER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER
BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...AND DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS IT COULD BE MORE OF A
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO.
BECAUSE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS SNOW STORMS EXPECT A 10:1
SNOW RATIO WITH THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL A GOOD AMOUNT
OF VARIABLES...BELIEVE THAT A LARGE SWATH OF 8-12 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF PIKE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEARING 14 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE MA/CT/RI BORDER BELIEVE 5-9 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING THIS MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET EVENT. CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS EXPECT 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH PERHAPS A TRACE TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE. KEPT CURRENT HEADLINES AS THIS TIME FOR MORE OF
AN THREAT AND IMPACT FACTOR ESP AS THE HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL RIGHT
AT THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE ICE
ACCRETION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TODAY WILL EJECT
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. CAA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION QUICKLY
AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY DUE TO THE DEPARTING LOW. A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR SOME
SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY...BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE...ESP NORTH OF
THE PIKE. SOUTH OF THE PIKE APPEARS THAT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE SO MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY SET UP IS POSSIBLE.
THIS MAY WARRANT AN EXTENSION IN THE ADVISORY...BUT BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY HELD OFF FOR NOW.
MODELS SEEM TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
MOISTURE AND SNOW WITHIN SAID REGION OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS ANOTHER HALF
INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY WEAK
OCEAN EFFECTS. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE TO 850MB TEMP SPREAD IS NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE...A DIFFERENCE OF 10C.
OVERALL ANTICIPATE THE STORM TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN BY THE EVENING
HOURS AND LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST LINE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BELOW AVERAGE...NEARING SINGLE DIGITS HOWEVER UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A
TAD AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER KEEPING TEMPS FROM RADIATING
OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND COLD WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
* ANOTHER WINTER STORM "POSSIBLE" SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
DETAILS...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY WILL RESULT IN COLD WEATHER INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...THE TRUE
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THERE MAY BE JUST A FEW LEFT OVER OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST THU MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WE HAVE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THIS TIME. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DIVING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES ARE
STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CAUSING THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK INSIDE THE BENCHMARK. MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SHARP WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
IN SUMMARY...THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT WILL EVOLVE.
WHILE MOST MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...THEY HINT AT AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP. THIS MEANS
THAT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW PULLED WESTWARD...EVEN IF THE LOW
TRACKS WELL TOO OUR EAST. ALSO...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AT IT WILL BE LOADED WITH MOISTURE...GIVEN ITS SOUTHERN
ORIGINS. IF IT ENDS UP TRENDING FURTHER WEST THAN A LOT OF THE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS TONIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT WOULD OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME RANGE...WE STILL NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE.
TUESDAY...
DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE ON TIMING AND PTYPE.
TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS
MORNING. PTYPE TRANSITIONS TO WINTRY MIX BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z SOUTH
OF MA TURNPIKE...BUT REMAINS SNOW NORTH OF THE PIKE. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CT/WESTERN RI.
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND INTO SOUTHWEST NH MODERATE SNOW WILL
LINGER UNTIL TONIGHT. SNOW TOTALS OF 6-12 INCHES ACROSS MOST
AREAS...WITH LESS ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
TONIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING HOWEVER EXPECT LINGERING
IFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH 17Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH 14Z
THEN A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. PTYPE CHANGES BACK TO
LIGHT SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME
SNOW. TIMING/INTENSITY AND POSSIBLE DURATION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...
LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. SNOW CHANGES
TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN DURING THE MORNING...EXCEPT NORTH OF CAPE
COD WHERE PRECIP SHOULD STAY AT ALL SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE
ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TONIGHT...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LOW DEPARTS TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES. WINDS WILL BE NEAR 25KTS AND SEAS NEAR 7FT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LINGERING SCA SEAS FROM LEFT OVER SWELL EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY FLOW
AND COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SEAS AND NORTHEAST WINDS MAY INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT ONLY IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002>022-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ023.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-
012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ001>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN/FRANK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
426 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS WELL AS A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT COLD WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ***
400 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. A LARGE SWATH OF
SNOW IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE
INDICATING THIS STORM IS STRENGTHENING. SEVERAL SITES IN CT ARE DOWN
TO A HALF OF A MILE AND MODERATELY SNOWING. IN FACT NEWARK AIRPORT
HAS RECEIVED 2 INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR TO HOUR AN A HALF.
TODAY...
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH OPEN 700 MB WAVE TO MOVE FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER TODAY. ONGOING SNOW
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT 12Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK FRONT END THUMP OF SNOW. WITH THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH EXCELLENT
SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECT SNOW FALL RATES BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR. THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND REDUCE VSBYS
AT OR BELOW A HALF OF A MILE.
AS THE DAY PROGRESS...APPEARS THAT A GOOD 800 MB WARM NOSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 13-15Z. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST OF THE
MODELS PUSHING A 3C WARM NOSE WITHIN THE THERMAL LAYER...WHERE AS
THE GFS IS ONLY A 1.5C WARM NOSE. REGARDLESS THERE IS A WARM NOSE
INTRUDING INTO THE LAYER WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL ALTER SNOWFALL TOTALS AND TRY TO SHOW THAT WITHIN THE
FORECAST. BEST LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
MA/RI/CT BORDER WHERE ICE ACCRETION MAY REACH BETWEEN AN TRACE
AND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS CENTRAL CT AND SOUTHERN RI. BELIEVE SLEET
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCE JUST SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE THE WARM
NOSE WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCE AND HYDROMETEORS WILL STRUGGLE TO
MELT FULLY. NORTH OF THE PIKE...WILL BE ALL SNOW.
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE WARM AIR WILL INCREASE SURFACE TEMPS
ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO JUST RAIN. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE NORTH OF THE PIKE. THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REALLY DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE BY 18Z BUT FEEL THAT THIS MAY BE TO QUICKLY ESP
LOOKING AT THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM. ONE THING TO NOTE AS PREV
FORECASTER DID IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
AT 700 MB...A DRY SLOT. THIS MAY SHUT DOWN THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW
SOUTH OF THE MA/CT/RI BORDER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER
BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...AND DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS IT COULD BE MORE OF A
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO.
BECAUSE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS SNOW STORMS EXPECT A 10:1
SNOW RATIO WITH THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL A GOOD AMOUNT
OF VARIABLES...BELIEVE THAT A LARGE SWATH OF 8-12 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF PIKE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEARING 14 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE MA/CT/RI BORDER BELIEVE 5-9 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING THIS MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET EVENT. CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS EXPECT 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH PERHAPS A TRACE TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE. KEPT CURRENT HEADLINES AS THIS TIME FOR MORE OF
AN THREAT AND IMPACT FACTOR ESP AS THE HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL RIGHT
AT THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE ICE
ACCRETION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TODAY WILL EJECT
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. CAA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION QUICKLY
AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY DUE TO THE DEPARTING LOW. A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR SOME
SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY...BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE...ESP NORTH OF
THE PIKE. SOUTH OF THE PIKE APPEARS THAT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE SO MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY SET UP IS POSSIBLE.
THIS MAY WARRANT AN EXTENSION IN THE ADVISORY...BUT BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY HELD OFF FOR NOW.
MODELS SEEM TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
MOISTURE AND SNOW WITHIN SAID REGION OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS ANOTHER HALF
INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY WEAK
OCEAN EFFECTS. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE TO 850MB TEMP SPREAD IS NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE...A DIFFERENCE OF 10C.
OVERALL ANTICIPATE THE STORM TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN BY THE EVENING
HOURS AND LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST LINE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BELOW AVERAGE...NEARING SINGLE DIGITS HOWEVER UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A
TAD AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER KEEPING TEMPS FROM RADIATING
OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND COLD WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
* ANOTHER WINTER STORM "POSSIBLE" SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
DETAILS...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY WILL RESULT IN COLD WEATHER INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...THE TRUE
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THERE MAY BE JUST A FEW LEFT OVER OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST THU MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WE HAVE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THIS TIME. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DIVING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES ARE
STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CAUSING THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK INSIDE THE BENCHMARK. MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SHARP WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
IN SUMMARY...THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT WILL EVOLVE.
WHILE MOST MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...THEY HINT AT AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP. THIS MEANS
THAT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW PULLED WESTWARD...EVEN IF THE LOW
TRACKS WELL TOO OUR EAST. ALSO...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AT IT WILL BE LOADED WITH MOISTURE...GIVEN ITS SOUTHERN
ORIGINS. IF IT ENDS UP TRENDING FURTHER WEST THAN A LOT OF THE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS TONIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT WOULD OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME RANGE...WE STILL NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE.
TUESDAY...
DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE ON TIMING AND PTYPE.
TODAY... VFR TO START BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR IN
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO PER
HOUR STARTING AT 11Z AND LASTING UNTIL 15Z-18Z...THEN TAPERING TO
LIGHTER SNOW THEREAFTER. HOWEVER NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND INTO
SOUTHWEST NH MODERATE SNOW WILL LINGER UNTIL TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SLEET
AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE 14Z-18Z. PLOWABLE SNOW WILL
OCCUR ACROSS ALL SITES WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 6-12 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTION OF CT-RI INTO CENTRAL-NORTHERN MA INCLUDING THE
MA PIKE AND INTO BOSTON.
TONIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING HOWEVER EXPECT LINGERING
IFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. HEAVIEST SNOW 11Z-16Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. HEAVIEST SNOW 09Z-15Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME
SNOW. TIMING/INTENSITY AND POSSIBLE DURATION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...
LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. SNOW CHANGES
TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN DURING THE MORNING...EXCEPT NORTH OF CAPE
COD WHERE PRECIP SHOULD STAY AT ALL SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE
ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TONIGHT...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LOW DEPARTS TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES. WINDS WILL BE NEAR 25KTS AND SEAS NEAR 7FT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LINGERING SCA SEAS FROM LEFT OVER SWELL EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY FLOW
AND COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SEAS AND NORTHEAST WINDS MAY INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT ONLY IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002>022-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ023.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-
012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ001>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
819 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE AWAY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
NJ HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THUS ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD NO LONGER FREEZE
WHEN IT MAKES CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE...SO THE ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
WARNINGS IN EASTERN PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF NJ REMAIN INTACT
FOR NOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION AS THE DAY
WEARS ON AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WARNING REGIME AS NECESSARY.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
TO THE NORTH THE ADVANCE OF WARMER AIR IS HITTING THE WALL WITH
THE POCONOS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AND THE PTYPE BATTLE ZONE
NEAR I80. IN THE PHL NW SUBURBS, TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING CLOSER
TO FREEZING, COUPLED WITH INDIRECT SUN, ADDITIONAL ICING
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH. WE HAVE UPPED SNOW AMOUNTS
IN THE POCONOS. THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE LIFTING NE INTO NY STATE BY ABOUT 15Z.
THIS SHOULD BE THE BACK
GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND SHARPER AT 850MB
THAN THE WRF-NMMB. THEY BOTH LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AT 925MB. ALTHOUGH
IN REAL TIME WE COULD NOT FIND A MODEL THAT WAS HANDLING THE PTYPE
OR SURFACE TEMPS WELL. THE HRRR WAS COMING THE CLOSEST WITH THE
LATTER, BUT EVEN ITS SNOWFALL FORECASTS WHICH HAVE DONE WELL THIS
WINTER ARE TOO INFLATED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 78.
IN TERMS OF ICE ASOS BASED MEASUREMENTS ARE 0.2 TO 0.25 AT PTW AND
TTN RESPECTIVELY. POWER OUTAGES IN OUR CWA ARE OCCURRING FROM
MONMOUTH AND I95 CORRIDOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SERN PA AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE. ROUGH ESTIMATE BASED ON UTILITY WEB SITES ARE SEVERAL
THOUSAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER SUSQ VLY IS GETTING HIT HARDER
WITH OUTAGES PRESENTLY.
IN TERMS OF WINTRY PTYPE DETAILS, EVEN AT THIS LATE STAGE CONFIDENCE
IS LESS THAN USUAL. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG
THE I80 CORRIDOR AS THE SECONDARY TAKES OVER. MODELING IS STILL
SHOWING PLENTY OF SUBZERO TEMPS AT 925MB IN THE PHL NRN SUBURBS AND
RARITAN BASIN EVEN WITH THE SURGE OF 850MB TEMPS GOING FARTHER NORTH.
PCPN INTENSITY HAS CHANGED THE PCPN BACK TO SLEET AND EVEN SNOW, BUT
THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE LEAVING OUR CWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
SO OUR FAR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WE HAVE FALLEN BACK TO SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOKING FOR IT TO REMAIN MAINLY SNOW. ONCE WE GET INTO
THE I78 AND I80 CORRIDORS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SHAKIER AS IT COULD
VERY WELL BE MORE SLEET. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS LESS FREEZING RAIN
IN THAT AREA. WE LOWERED ICE AMOUNTS THERE. FOR THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TEMPERATURES ARE
TEETERING CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS HAS HELPED HOLD DOWN ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AS HAS THE HEAVY RAIN. PROBLEM IS THE HEAVIER PCPN IS
MOVING AWAY (LESS WARM RAIN TO RAISE TEMPS AND ALSO FALL QUICKER
BEFORE FREEZING ON EXPOSED SURFACES) AND THE SECONDARY HAS FORMED.
WINDS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH FROM SNOW COVERED AREAS BASED ON THE
TRENDS IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP A STATUS QUO. SO UNTIL WE GET
INDIRECT SUNLIGHT TO PUSH US OVER THE EDGE, NONE OF THE PRESENT
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED. WE KEPT ICE ACCUMULATION
VALUES BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES IN THE AXIS FROM THE PHL NW SUBURBS
INTO THE RARITAN BASIN.
THERE IS SOME DPVA TO STILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THIS EVENT SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES, COLDER AIR STARTS MOVING
BACK IN ALOFT AND ANY LATE IN THE DAY PCPN NORTH SHOULD BE SNOW.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF OUR CWA AND BEING
FORTUNATE TO HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, THE ICE SHOULD START
MELTING OFF OF EXPOSED SURFACES AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
EXACERBATE POWER OUTAGES. GFS MOS IS FAIRLY WARM AND LOOKS TOO WARM
GIVEN THE SNOW COVER AROUND THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
STILL ANOTHER SHOT OF PVA TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH THIS EVENING AND WE
KEPT THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS THIS EVENING, TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE AS THE SECONDARY, OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD THEN
BE A PROBLEM IF ICE REMAINS ON ANY TREES OR WIRES. MIN TEMPS WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND FREEZE ANY UNTREATED
STANDING WATER OR SLUSH.
THEN A QUIET, BUT COLD DAY FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
EASES EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK RELATIVELY DRY, SO SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO CLOUDY BASED ON THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING, EVEN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING TREACHEROUS WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM DID NOT
TOUCH THE LONGTERM GRIDS THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUSLY...
AS ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED...ANOTHER WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S GFS AND EC MODELS
DEPICT TWO SEPARATE BATCHES OF ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE W/CENTRAL
US TROUGH. SINCE THE BATCHES OF ENERGY ARE SEPARATE...THIS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING A BLOCKBUSTER STORM (AS SOME OF
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT). THE FIRST AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NGT BRINGING AN
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO (MOSTLY) THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER ACTIONS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, THEN A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH/WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD BE A RAINS/SNOW MIXTURE...ENDING AS SOME
STEADY SNOW EARLY MON MORNING. AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY HAVE MOSTLY
SNOW...WHILE MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE POPS/WX FOR
THE WEEKEND ON THE CONTINUITY `RAILS` AND KEEP HI CHC/LOW LIKELY
POPS FROM SAT NIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THE TWO SYSTEMS
DO AGAIN MERGE...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER STORM COULD STILL
EVOLVE...SO WE ARE STILL ADVISING PARTNERS TO BE PREPARED FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND. WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THE
AFTERNOON WILL CARRY ON AS BEFORE.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY AND LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS MORNING...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET, WITH SOME SNOW
MIXED IN AROUND RDG AND ABE, ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW THIS MORNING, IFR OR WORSE, AS WE SLOWLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING PUTTING AN END TO THE FREEZING RAIN AND GIVING US JUST
PLAIN RAIN. THE TWO QUESTIONABLE SPOTS WILL BE RDG AND ABE IN TERMS
OF THE PLAIN RAIN TRANSITION WHICH COULD TAKE UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF OF DELMARVA MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE CIGS AND VSBYS
AS THE RAIN SLOWLY TAPERS OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND WE TURN THE WINDS MORE TOWARDS THE
WEST. THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE LOW-LEVELS AND WE SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND GUST UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU LATE FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED.
SAT MORNING THRU SUN...MOSTLY MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS SNOW/RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN ZONES NOW THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, MOSTLY FOR SEAS AT THIS POINT, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCA GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ADDED
THE DELAWARE BAY FOR GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FUNNELING OF
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP ACHIEVE SCA GUSTS. UN-SURE OF HOW
LONG PAST TONIGHT THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA
AS THE COASTAL LOW PROVIDING THE HIGHER SEAS AND GUSTS QUICKLY MOVES
OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST.
OUTLOOK...
THU THRU SAT NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUN MORNING
THRU TUE MORNING...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. GALES
POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
055.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ060>062-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ009-
010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
015.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/IOVINO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
614 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE AWAY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE ESTF UPDATE WE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND PTYPES MAINLY
FROM AROUND I95 SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THIS AREA, WE ARE STILL HEARING
REPORTS OF NEW TREES COMING DOWN. POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT OUR
AREA HAVE CLIMBED TO 200,000 CUSTOMERS. SO WE WILL KEEP THE TWO
LOWER TIER ADVISORY AND WARNINGS GOING.
TO THE NORTH THE ADVANCE OF WARMER AIR IS HITTING THE WALL WITH
THE POCONOS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AND THE PTYPE BATTLE ZONE
NEAR I80. IN THE PHL NW SUBURBS, TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING CLOSER
TO FREEZING, COUPLED WITH INDIRECT SUN, ADDITIONAL ICING
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH. WE HAVE UPPED SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS. THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE LIFTING NE INTO NY STATE BY ABOUT
15Z. THIS SHOULD BE THE BACK
GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND SHARPER AT 850MB
THAN THE WRF-NMMB. THEY BOTH LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AT 925MB. ALTHOUGH
IN REAL TIME WE COULD NOT FIND A MODEL THAT WAS HANDLING THE PTYPE
OR SURFACE TEMPS WELL. THE HRRR WAS COMING THE CLOSEST WITH THE
LATTER, BUT EVEN ITS SNOWFALL FORECASTS WHICH HAVE DONE WELL THIS
WINTER ARE TOO INFLATED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 78.
IN TERMS OF ICE ASOS BASED MEASUREMENTS ARE 0.2 TO 0.25 AT PTW AND
TTN RESPECTIVELY. POWER OUTAGES IN OUR CWA ARE OCCURRING FROM
MONMOUTH AND I95 CORRIDOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SERN PA AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE. ROUGH ESTIMATE BASED ON UTILITY WEB SITES ARE SEVERAL
THOUSAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER SUSQ VLY IS GETTING HIT HARDER
WITH OUTAGES PRESENTLY.
IN TERMS OF WINTRY PTYPE DETAILS, EVEN AT THIS LATE STAGE CONFIDENCE
IS LESS THAN USUAL. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG
THE I80 CORRIDOR AS THE SECONDARY TAKES OVER. MODELING IS STILL
SHOWING PLENTY OF SUBZERO TEMPS AT 925MB IN THE PHL NRN SUBURBS AND
RARITAN BASIN EVEN WITH THE SURGE OF 850MB TEMPS GOING FARTHER NORTH.
PCPN INTENSITY HAS CHANGED THE PCPN BACK TO SLEET AND EVEN SNOW, BUT
THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE LEAVING OUR CWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
SO OUR FAR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WE HAVE FALLEN BACK TO SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOKING FOR IT TO REMAIN MAINLY SNOW. ONCE WE GET INTO
THE I78 AND I80 CORRIDORS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SHAKIER AS IT COULD
VERY WELL BE MORE SLEET. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS LESS FREEZING RAIN
IN THAT AREA. WE LOWERED ICE AMOUNTS THERE. FOR THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TEMPERATURES ARE
TEETERING CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS HAS HELPED HOLD DOWN ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AS HAS THE HEAVY RAIN. PROBLEM IS THE HEAVIER PCPN IS
MOVING AWAY (LESS WARM RAIN TO RAISE TEMPS AND ALSO FALL QUICKER
BEFORE FREEZING ON EXPOSED SURFACES) AND THE SECONDARY HAS FORMED.
WINDS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH FROM SNOW COVERED AREAS BASED ON THE
TRENDS IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP A STATUS QUO. SO UNTIL WE GET
INDIRECT SUNLIGHT TO PUSH US OVER THE EDGE, NONE OF THE PRESENT
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED. WE KEPT ICE ACCUMULATION
VALUES BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES IN THE AXIS FROM THE PHL NW SUBURBS
INTO THE RARITAN BASIN.
THERE IS SOME DPVA TO STILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THIS EVENT SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES, COLDER AIR STARTS MOVING
BACK IN ALOFT AND ANY LATE IN THE DAY PCPN NORTH SHOULD BE SNOW.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF OUR CWA AND BEING
FORTUNATE TO HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, THE ICE SHOULD START
MELTING OFF OF EXPOSED SURFACES AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
EXACERBATE POWER OUTAGES. GFS MOS IS FAIRLY WARM AND LOOKS TOO WARM
GIVEN THE SNOW COVER AROUND THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
STILL ANOTHER SHOT OF PVA TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH THIS EVENING AND WE
KEPT THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS THIS EVENING, TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE AS THE SECONDARY, OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD THEN
BE A PROBLEM IF ICE REMAINS ON ANY TREES OR WIRES. MIN TEMPS WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND FREEZE ANY UNTREATED
STANDING WATER OR SLUSH.
THEN A QUIET, BUT COLD DAY FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
EASES EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK RELATIVELY DRY, SO SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO CLOUDY BASED ON THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING, EVEN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING TREACHEROUS WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM DID NOT
TOUCH THE LONGTERM GRIDS THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUSLY...
AS ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED...ANOTHER WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S GFS AND EC MODELS
DEPICT TWO SEPARATE BATCHES OF ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE W/CENTRAL
US TROUGH. SINCE THE BATCHES OF ENERGY ARE SEPARATE...THIS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING A BLOCKBUSTER STORM (AS SOME OF
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT). THE FIRST AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NGT BRINGING AN
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO (MOSTLY) THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER ACTIONS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, THEN A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH/WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD BE A RAINS/SNOW MIXTURE...ENDING AS SOME
STEADY SNOW EARLY MON MORNING. AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY HAVE MOSTLY
SNOW...WHILE MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE POPS/WX FOR
THE WEEKEND ON THE CONTINUITY `RAILS` AND KEEP HI CHC/LOW LIKELY
POPS FROM SAT NIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THE TWO SYSTEMS
DO AGAIN MERGE...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER STORM COULD STILL
EVOLVE...SO WE ARE STILL ADVISING PARTNERS TO BE PREPARED FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND. WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THE
AFTERNOON WILL CARRY ON AS BEFORE.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY AND LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS MORNING...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET, WITH SOME SNOW
MIXED IN AROUND RDG AND ABE, ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW THIS MORNING, IFR OR WORSE, AS WE SLOWLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING PUTTING AN END TO THE FREEZING RAIN AND GIVING US JUST
PLAIN RAIN. THE TWO QUESTIONABLE SPOTS WILL BE RDG AND ABE IN TERMS
OF THE PLAIN RAIN TRANSITION WHICH COULD TAKE UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF OF DELMARVA MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE CIGS AND VSBYS
AS THE RAIN SLOWLY TAPERS OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND WE TURN THE WINDS MORE TOWARDS THE
WEST. THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE LOW-LEVELS AND WE SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND GUST UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU LATE FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED.
SAT MORNING THRU SUN...MOSTLY MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS SNOW/RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN ZONES NOW THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, MOSTLY FOR SEAS AT THIS POINT, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCA GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ADDED
THE DELAWARE BAY FOR GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FUNNELING OF
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP ACHIEVE SCA GUSTS. UN-SURE OF HOW
LONG PAST TONIGHT THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA
AS THE COASTAL LOW PROVIDING THE HIGHER SEAS AND GUSTS QUICKLY MOVES
OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST.
OUTLOOK...
THU THRU SAT NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUN MORNING
THRU TUE MORNING...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. GALES
POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
055.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ060>062-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ009-
010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ020>022-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
013-015>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-
015-019-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE AWAY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND SHARPER AT 850MB
THAN THE WRF-NMMB. THEY BOTH LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AT 925MB. ALTHOUGH IN
REAL TIME WE COULD NOT FIND A MODEL THAT WAS HANDLING THE PTYPE OR
SURFACE TEMPS WELL. THE HRRR WAS COMING THE CLOSEST WITH THE LATTER,
BUT EVEN ITS SNOWFALL FORECASTS WHICH HAVE DONE WELL THIS WINTER ARE
TOO INFLATED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 78.
IN TERMS OF ICE ASOS BASED MEASUREMENTS ARE 0.2 TO 0.25 AT PTW AND
TTN RESPECTIVELY. POWER OUTAGES IN OUR CWA ARE OCCURRING FROM
MONMOUTH AND I95 CORRIDOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SERN PA AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE. ROUGH ESTIMATE BASED ON UTILITY WEB SITES ARE SEVERAL
THOUSAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER SUSQ VLY IS GETTING HIT HARDER
WITH OUTAGES PRESENTLY.
IN TERMS OF WINTRY PTYPE DETAILS, EVEN AT THIS LATE STAGE CONFIDENCE
IS LESS THAN USUAL. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG
THE I80 CORRIDOR AS THE SECONDARY TAKES OVER. MODELING IS STILL
SHOWING PLENTY OF SUBZERO TEMPS AT 925MB IN THE PHL NRN SUBURBS AND
RARITAN BASIN EVEN WITH THE SURGE OF 850MB TEMPS GOING FARTHER NORTH.
PCPN INTENSITY HAS CHANGED THE PCPN BACK TO SLEET AND EVEN SNOW, BUT
THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE LEAVING OUR CWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
SO OUR FAR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WE HAVE FALLEN BACK TO SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOKING FOR IT TO REMAIN MAINLY SNOW. ONCE WE GET INTO
THE I78 AND I80 CORRIDORS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SHAKIER AS IT COULD
VERY WELL BE MORE SLEET. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS LESS FREEZING RAIN
IN THAT AREA. WE LOWERED ICE AMOUNTS THERE. FOR THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TEMPERATURES ARE
TEETERING CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS HAS HELPED HOLD DOWN ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AS HAS THE HEAVY RAIN. PROBLEM IS THE HEAVIER PCPN IS
MOVING AWAY (LESS WARM RAIN TO RAISE TEMPS AND ALSO FALL QUICKER
BEFORE FREEZING ON EXPOSED SURFACES) AND THE SECONDARY HAS FORMED.
WINDS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH FROM SNOW COVERED AREAS BASED ON THE
TRENDS IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP A STATUS QUO. SO UNTIL WE GET
INDIRECT SUNLIGHT TO PUSH US OVER THE EDGE, NONE OF THE PRESENT
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED. WE KEPT ICE ACCUMULATION
VALUES BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES IN THE AXIS FROM THE PHL NW SUBURBS
INTO THE RARITAN BASIN.
THERE IS SOME DPVA TO STILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THIS EVENT SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES, COLDER AIR STARTS MOVING
BACK IN ALOFT AND ANY LATE IN THE DAY PCPN NORTH SHOULD BE SNOW.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF OUR CWA AND BEING
FORTUNATE TO HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, THE ICE SHOULD START
MELTING OFF OF EXPOSED SURFACES AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
EXACERBATE POWER OUTAGES. GFS MOS IS FAIRLY WARM AND LOOKS TOO WARM
GIVEN THE SNOW COVER AROUND THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
STILL ANOTHER SHOT OF PVA TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH THIS EVENING AND WE
KEPT THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS THIS EVENING, TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE AS THE SECONDARY, OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD THEN
BE A PROBLEM IF ICE REMAINS ON ANY TREES OR WIRES. MIN TEMPS WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND FREEZE ANY UNTREATED
STANDING WATER OR SLUSH.
THEN A QUIET, BUT COLD DAY FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
EASES EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK RELATIVELY DRY, SO SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO CLOUDY BASED ON THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING, EVEN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING TREACHEROUS WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM DID NOT
TOUCH THE LONGTERM GRIDS THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUSLY...
AS ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED...ANOTHER WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S GFS AND EC MODELS
DEPICT TWO SEPARATE BATCHES OF ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE W/CENTRAL
US TROUGH. SINCE THE BATCHES OF ENERGY ARE SEPARATE...THIS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING A BLOCKBUSTER STORM (AS SOME OF
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT). THE FIRST AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NGT BRINGING AN
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO (MOSTLY) THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER ACTIONS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, THEN A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH/WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD BE A RAINS/SNOW MIXTURE...ENDING AS SOME
STEADY SNOW EARLY MON MORNING. AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY HAVE MOSTLY
SNOW...WHILE MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE POPS/WX FOR
THE WEEKEND ON THE CONTINUITY `RAILS` AND KEEP HI CHC/LOW LIKELY
POPS FROM SAT NIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THE TWO SYSTEMS
DO AGAIN MERGE...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER STORM COULD STILL
EVOLVE...SO WE ARE STILL ADVISING PARTNERS TO BE PREPARED FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND. WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THE
AFTERNOON WILL CARRY ON AS BEFORE.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY AND LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS MORNING...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET, WITH SOME SNOW
MIXED IN AROUND RDG AND ABE, ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW THIS MORNING, IFR OR WORSE, AS WE SLOWLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING PUTTING AN END TO THE FREEZING RAIN AND GIVING US JUST
PLAIN RAIN. THE TWO QUESTIONABLE SPOTS WILL BE RDG AND ABE IN TERMS
OF THE PLAIN RAIN TRANSITION WHICH COULD TAKE UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF OF DELMARVA MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE CIGS AND VSBYS
AS THE RAIN SLOWLY TAPERS OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND WE TURN THE WINDS MORE TOWARDS THE
WEST. THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE LOW-LEVELS AND WE SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND GUST UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU LATE FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED.
SAT MORNING THRU SUN...MOSTLY MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS SNOW/RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN ZONES NOW THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, MOSTLY FOR SEAS AT THIS POINT, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCA GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ADDED
THE DELAWARE BAY FOR GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FUNNELING OF
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP ACHIEVE SCA GUSTS. UN-SURE OF HOW
LONG PAST TONIGHT THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA
AS THE COASTAL LOW PROVIDING THE HIGHER SEAS AND GUSTS QUICKLY MOVES
OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST.
OUTLOOK...
THU THRU SAT NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUN MORNING
THRU TUE MORNING...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. GALES
POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
055.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ060>062-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ009-
010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ020>022-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
013-015>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-
015-019-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
907 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE OOZ SOUNDING DID INDICATE THAT THE
PWAT HAD DECREASED RELATIVE TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. THERE ARE LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE AND IS INDICATED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST...BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LAKE AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AND THEN THE ONLY REAL THREAT FOR IFR WILL BE AT KAPF.
THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ABOUT
DEVELOPING LOW CIGS OVER THE INTERIOR AND ADVECTING ACROSS THE
KAPF TERMINAL AFT 05Z AND NOT LIFTING UNTIL AROUND 15Z.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS, CANNOT DENY THIS COULD EASILY HAPPEN.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KTMB LATE IN THE
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR THAT LOCATION. THE SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR AND NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY.
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SREF IS SHOWING
NEAR 100 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT FROM SOUTH
OF NAPLES AND ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. DENSE SEA FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF WATERS...THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
THAT SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE FOG THERE. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THEN PUSH INTO THE
METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST. SO PUSHED THE PATCHY FOG CHANCE TO THE COAST AND AREAS OF
FOG INTO THE METRO AREAS FOR TONIGHT. DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY BACK NORTHWARD ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOME SLIGHT DRYING IS FORECAST TO TAKE
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY...BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES
BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH...AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. IT WILL BE WARM THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND HEAT INDICES NEARING 90.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AFFECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DROP 5-10 DEGREES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THE DRY AND
COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. IN TURN...MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH.
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...MAINLY FOR
REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS AT SITE APF AND INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCES AROUND PBI. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
INDICATE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SETTING UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHERN LOCATIONS FROM THE LAKE TO THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE PBI SITE...ANY EWD SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS COULD RESULT
IN REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND AROUND ANY ACTIVITY. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LAST NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS
DUE FOG WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN...MAINLY FOR SITE APF AND
POSSIBLY TMB. THIS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS FRIDAY
BEFORE BURNING OFF OR LIFTING. 85/AG
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT
OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 67 80 68 / 30 30 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 69 78 72 / 20 20 10 10
MIAMI 82 69 80 71 / 20 20 10 10
NAPLES 81 67 81 66 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
625 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AND THEN THE ONLY REAL THREAT FOR IFR WILL BE AT KAPF.
THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ABOUT
DEVELOPING LOW CIGS OVER THE INTERIOR AND ADVECTING ACROSS THE
KAPF TERMINAL AFT 05Z AND NOT LIFTING UNTIL AROUND 15Z.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS, CANNOT DENY THIS COULD EASILY HAPPEN.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KTMB LATE IN THE
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR THAT LOCATION. THE SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR AND NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY.
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SREF IS SHOWING
NEAR 100 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT FROM SOUTH
OF NAPLES AND ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. DENSE SEA FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF WATERS...THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
THAT SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE FOG THERE. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THEN PUSH INTO THE
METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST. SO PUSHED THE PATCHY FOG CHANCE TO THE COAST AND AREAS OF
FOG INTO THE METRO AREAS FOR TONIGHT. DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY BACK NORTHWARD ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOME SLIGHT DRYING IS FORECAST TO TAKE
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY...BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES
BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH...AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. IT WILL BE WARM THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND HEAT INDICES NEARING 90.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AFFECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DROP 5-10 DEGREES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THE DRY AND
COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. IN TURN...MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH.
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...MAINLY FOR
REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS AT SITE APF AND INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCES AROUND PBI. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
INDICATE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SETTING UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHERN LOCATIONS FROM THE LAKE TO THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE PBI SITE...ANY EWD SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS COULD RESULT
IN REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND AROUND ANY ACTIVITY. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LAST NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS
DUE FOG WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN...MAINLY FOR SITE APF AND
POSSIBLY TMB. THIS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS FRIDAY
BEFORE BURNING OFF OR LIFTING. 85/AG
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT
OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 67 80 68 83 / 20 10 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 78 72 80 / 10 10 10 30
MIAMI 69 80 71 83 / 10 10 10 30
NAPLES 67 81 66 81 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1008 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
925 AM CST
CHALLENGING MORNING AS DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR PITTSBURGH AND THE TRAILING
HIGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS MORNING WITH MANY SHORELINE SITES REPORTING GUSTS AROUND
35 KT. THIS IS RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS RIGHT ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP UP THE
WISCONSIN SHORE AS LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES TAKE OVER AND A WELL
ORGANIZED BAND OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW IS DEVELOPING AND
WORKING DOWN THE SOUTHEAST WI SHORELINE AND DEVELOPING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NE ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY AROUND
TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE AS
THE CONVERGENCE BAND PIVOTS EASTWARD. THIS IS KEY IN THAT THIS
WILL LIKELY BE WHAT IT TAKES FOR WINDS ALONG THE LAKEFRONT TO
DIMINISH BUT ALSO ELIMINATE THE OPEN FETCH OF BLOWING SNOW OFF THE
EXPANSIVE ICE PACK ON THE LAKE. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND. CURRENT TRENDS
SHOW IT MOVING STEADILY SO RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA
LOOKS SHORT BUT SNOW INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH...RESULTING IN
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR AREAS IT PASSES
OVER.
HAVE HAD EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION REGARDING HEADLINES FOR LAKESHORE
AREAS. HAVE DECIDED TO SPLIT LAKE/COOK/LAKE/PORTER AND EXTEND THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 2 PM.WHICH MAY BE A
LITTLE LONG...WHILE LEAVING THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN UNTIL NOON
AND LEAVING THE WARNING AS-IS. IN TERMS OF THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE 30-35 AND OCCASIONALLY 40 MPH
GUSTS IS VERY LIMITED BASED ON REPORTS AND LAKESHORE OBS VS. INLAND
OBS...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25 AND OCCASIONALLY 30 MPH ARE OCCURRING
INLAND. WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
OR SO AND CONFINED TO THE LAKEFRONT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY VS. ANY KIND OF UPGRADE. WINDS ONSHORE ARE BEGINNING TO
TURN NORTHERLY AND EASE UP ON SPEED WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION
EASTWARD TO THE LAKEFRONT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE LATE THIS
MORNING. THE APPROACHING SNOW BAND WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IN A SHORT TIME BUT WITH THE CONVERGENCE PASSING
OVERHEAD WINDS MAY SHIFT NNW AND EASE IN SPEED AS THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ARRIVES. TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS AND COOK
COUNTY ARE ALREADY AROUND 6 INCHES...IN MORE THAN THE 12 HOUR
WARNING CRITERIA...BUT WILL LIKELY PUSH 8 INCHES IN SPOTS BY
MIDDAY. WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND THE EXTENT OF THE
WORST CONDITIONS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER A FEW HOUR PERIOD
FELT THAT CONTINUING THE ADVISORY WOULD BE THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WITH UPDATED WORDING FOR LAKEFRONT AREAS.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRST AND FOREMOST ON THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT HAS BROUGHT NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE TO AT LEAST A PART OF 35 OF 50 STATES. AS THIS
MASSIVE SYSTEM EXITS EAST WE WILL THEN TURN ATTENTION TO A ONCE
AGAIN VERY COLD PATTERN FOR FEBRUARY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING IS CENTERED ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENTS. NORMALLY WHEN UNDER SUCH A PATH AND UPPER FORCING
WITHIN A WINTER STORM...SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...BUT AS
EXPECTED THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING YESTERDAY STRUGGLED TO SATURATE
AND A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DID NOT HAVE MUCH FOR EFFICIENT
SNOW THROUGH MID-EVE. BUT NOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BEST
DYNAMICS...THE CURRENT COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO SPORADIC HEAVY SNOW...WITH LIKELY
THE BETTER RATES EASING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF MESOSCALE BANDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTED THROUGH THAT BEST TIME...INCLUDING OVER
CHICAGO...SUPPORTING TEMPORARY RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...AS
EVIDENCED BY AT TIMES ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY AND EARLIER
REPORTS. SO CERTAINLY ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY MID-LATE MORNING BUT LIKELY STILL BE
OCCURRING IN MANY EASTERN AREAS...AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS OF
SNOW STILL FALLING ALL THE WAY BACK TO WESTERN IA.
THERE HAS BEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BASED ON RADAR
DATA INTO ALL OUR LAKE COUNTIES...BUT ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY IL AND
COOK COUNTY. THE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL SLOWLY POINT MORE TOWARD NW IN BY LATE MORNING. SOME HIGHER
TOTALS WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS COVERED IN THE
ADVISORY. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS JUST ABOVE SIX
INCHES BASED ON RADAR PERSISTENCE SEEN OVERNIGHT...NAMELY IN
NORTHERN COOK/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VERY LIKELY NOT END UP IN A NICE NORTH
TO SOUTH SWATH...BUT A BROAD 3-6 SHOULD SPEAK FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING...AND THEN AGAIN AS MENTIONED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE
PERSISTENT BANDING FURTHER NORTH. FOR HEADLINES...THE ONLY CHANGE
WAS TO DOWNGRADE LIVINGSTON COUNTY BASED ON SNOWFALL NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SIX INCHES AND RATES OF SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME DRY SLOT IMPINGEMENT. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND OBSERVED SOME ON IDOT WEBCAMS
SO FEEL COMFORTABLE THAT THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN OPEN AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST IN
THOUGH THE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...AND WITH THE DEEP
SYNOPTIC SATURATION AND EXISTING FORCING WORKING EAST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT INTENSE. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH
BLOWING SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING IN OPEN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE
MOST FRESH SNOW. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING
WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS ADVECTION
OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS A POTENT 1047MB HIGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS FROM THE
ROCKIES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER DARK
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WHILE NOT AS GREAT OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPS IN ADVECTION SCHEMES...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVE AND MAYBE INTO OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A BETTER
WESTERLY PUSH IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE
GONE MORE TOWARD CLEAR THEN WITH DROPPING TEMPS IN THAT TIME. FRI
MORNING TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED IN ALL OUTLYING AREAS IF
THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...WITH POSSIBLY A GOOD PART OF THE CHICAGO
METRO TOO. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL IL ON THIS SHIFT...BUT WITH CLOUD
CHALLENGES AND AMPLE CURRENT HEADLINES OPTED TO ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT A BETTER CHANCE TO ASSESS PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOWEST
WIND CHILLS.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE...WITH
THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INDICATING ROCKFORD REMAINING
BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY! NOT SOLD THAT IT WILL BE THAT COLD...BUT
CERTAINLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ARE VERY PROBABLE...POSSIBLY
COMPROMISING RECORD COLD HIGHS. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE CLEARING CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER CHANNELED VORTICITY
WITHIN SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IF A PERSISTENT CLEAR SKY THROUGH
THU NIGHT...THEN THAT COULD RESULT IN VERY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN THE 925MB VALUES. RIGHT NOW THAT IS
MOST FAVORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR ACTIVE WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...ALMOST CLIPPER-LIKE...CROSSING THE REGION SAT/SAT
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO BOOST POPS DURING THIS
TIME ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS IN THIS WAVE BEING STRONGER AND HAVING FOCUSED
FORCING. CERTAINLY PLACEMENT AND EVEN TIMING ISSUES LIKELY EXIST
WITH WHAT WILL PAN OUT...BUT BELIEVED THE MODEL BLEND IN POPS
SEEMED TOO LOW. PLUS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS WISE WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERY 72 HOURS HAVING HAPPENED FOR ABOUT TWO
MONTHS NOW...SO SEE NO REASON TO DOWNPLAY AN AGREED POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD INTO THE START OF THE SECOND
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
600 AM CST
RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6TH:
CHICAGO: 4 DEGREES (1982)
ROCKFORD: 3 DEGREES (1982)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SCT FLURRIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
* PREVAILING IFR VIS THROUGH AROUND NOON. OCNL BURSTS OF LIFR VIS
POSSIBLE.
* GUSTY NNE WINDS BACKING TO THE NNW THIS AFTERNOON.
* PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. BRIEF
PERIODS IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. FORCING REALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER AROUND 13-14Z FOR
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
SNOW GROWTH ZONE COMBINED WITH SOME VERY MODEST ASCENT IN THE WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW TENTHS. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR OR OUR LOCAL 8KM WRF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED OR BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT AND QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE FLUX.
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTS ALREADY THIS MORNING ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THROUGH TODAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS THIS MORNING...LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING END OF SNOWFALL.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
WIND DIRECTION...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND
DIRECTION SHIFTING TO NNWLY.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHC OF SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BACKING
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT...WHILE A STRONGER LOW
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN STATES THEN LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-
ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL NOON
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 2 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 2 PM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
933 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
925 AM CST
CHALLENGING MORNING AS DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR PITTSBURGH AND THE TRAILING
HIGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS MORNING WITH MANY SHORELINE SITES REPORTING GUSTS AROUND
35 KT. THIS IS RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS RIGHT ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP UP THE
WISCONSIN SHORE AS LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES TAKE OVER AND A WELL
ORGANIZED BAND OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW IS DEVELOPING AND
WORKING DOWN THE SOUTHEAST WI SHORELINE AND DEVELOPING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NE ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY AROUND
TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE AS
THE CONVERGENCE BAND PIVOTS EASTWARD. THIS IS KEY IN THAT THIS
WILL LIKELY BE WHAT IT TAKES FOR WINDS ALONG THE LAKEFRONT TO
DIMINISH BUT ALSO ELIMINATE THE OPEN FETCH OF BLOWING SNOW OFF THE
EXPANSIVE ICE PACK ON THE LAKE. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND. CURRENT TRENDS
SHOW IT MOVING STEADILY SO RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA
LOOKS SHORT BUT SNOW INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH...RESULTING IN
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR AREAS IT PASSES
OVER.
HAVE HAD EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION REGARDING HEADLINES FOR LAKESHORE
AREAS. HAVE DECIDED TO SPLIT LAKE/COOK/LAKE/PORTER AND EXTEND THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 2 PM.WHICH MAY BE A
LITTLE LONG...WHILE LEAVING THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN UNTIL NOON
AND LEAVING THE WARNING AS-IS. IN TERMS OF THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE 30-35 AND OCCASIONALLY 40 MPH
GUSTS IS VERY LIMITED BASED ON REPORTS AND LAKESHORE OBS VS. INLAND
OBS...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25 AND OCCASIONALLY 30 MPH ARE OCCURRING
INLAND. WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
OR SO AND CONFINED TO THE LAKEFRONT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY VS. ANY KIND OF UPGRADE. WINDS ONSHORE ARE BEGINNING TO
TURN NORTHERLY AND EASE UP ON SPEED WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION
EASTWARD TO THE LAKEFRONT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE LATE THIS
MORNING. THE APPROACHING SNOW BAND WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IN A SHORT TIME BUT WITH THE CONVERGENCE PASSING
OVERHEAD WINDS MAY SHIFT NNW AND EASE IN SPEED AS THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ARRIVES. TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS AND COOK
COUNTY ARE ALREADY AROUND 6 INCHES...IN MORE THAN THE 12 HOUR
WARNING CRITERIA...BUT WILL LIKELY PUSH 8 INCHES IN SPOTS BY
MIDDAY. WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND THE EXTENT OF THE
WORST CONDITIONS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER A FEW HOUR PERIOD
FELT THAT CONTINUING THE ADVISORY WOULD BE THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WITH UPDATED WORDING FOR LAKEFRONT AREAS.
MDB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRST AND FOREMOST ON THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT HAS BROUGHT NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE TO AT LEAST A PART OF 35 OF 50 STATES. AS THIS
MASSIVE SYSTEM EXITS EAST WE WILL THEN TURN ATTENTION TO A ONCE
AGAIN VERY COLD PATTERN FOR FEBRUARY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING IS CENTERED ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENTS. NORMALLY WHEN UNDER SUCH A PATH AND UPPER FORCING
WITHIN A WINTER STORM...SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...BUT AS
EXPECTED THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING YESTERDAY STRUGGLED TO SATURATE
AND A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DID NOT HAVE MUCH FOR EFFICIENT
SNOW THROUGH MID-EVE. BUT NOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BEST
DYNAMICS...THE CURRENT COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO SPORADIC HEAVY SNOW...WITH LIKELY
THE BETTER RATES EASING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF MESOSCALE BANDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTED THROUGH THAT BEST TIME...INCLUDING OVER
CHICAGO...SUPPORTING TEMPORARY RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...AS
EVIDENCED BY AT TIMES ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY AND EARLIER
REPORTS. SO CERTAINLY ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY MID-LATE MORNING BUT LIKELY STILL BE
OCCURRING IN MANY EASTERN AREAS...AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS OF
SNOW STILL FALLING ALL THE WAY BACK TO WESTERN IA.
THERE HAS BEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BASED ON RADAR
DATA INTO ALL OUR LAKE COUNTIES...BUT ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY IL AND
COOK COUNTY. THE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL SLOWLY POINT MORE TOWARD NW IN BY LATE MORNING. SOME HIGHER
TOTALS WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS COVERED IN THE
ADVISORY. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS JUST ABOVE SIX
INCHES BASED ON RADAR PERSISTENCE SEEN OVERNIGHT...NAMELY IN
NORTHERN COOK/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VERY LIKELY NOT END UP IN A NICE NORTH
TO SOUTH SWATH...BUT A BROAD 3-6 SHOULD SPEAK FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING...AND THEN AGAIN AS MENTIONED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE
PERSISTENT BANDING FURTHER NORTH. FOR HEADLINES...THE ONLY CHANGE
WAS TO DOWNGRADE LIVINGSTON COUNTY BASED ON SNOWFALL NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SIX INCHES AND RATES OF SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME DRY SLOT IMPINGEMENT. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND OBSERVED SOME ON IDOT WEBCAMS
SO FEEL COMFORTABLE THAT THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN OPEN AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST IN
THOUGH THE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...AND WITH THE DEEP
SYNOPTIC SATURATION AND EXISTING FORCING WORKING EAST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT INTENSE. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH
BLOWING SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING IN OPEN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE
MOST FRESH SNOW. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING
WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS ADVECTION
OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS A POTENT 1047MB HIGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS FROM THE
ROCKIES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER DARK
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WHILE NOT AS GREAT OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPS IN ADVECTION SCHEMES...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVE AND MAYBE INTO OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A BETTER
WESTERLY PUSH IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE
GONE MORE TOWARD CLEAR THEN WITH DROPPING TEMPS IN THAT TIME. FRI
MORNING TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED IN ALL OUTLYING AREAS IF
THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...WITH POSSIBLY A GOOD PART OF THE CHICAGO
METRO TOO. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL IL ON THIS SHIFT...BUT WITH CLOUD
CHALLENGES AND AMPLE CURRENT HEADLINES OPTED TO ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT A BETTER CHANCE TO ASSESS PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOWEST
WIND CHILLS.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE...WITH
THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INDICATING ROCKFORD REMAINING
BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY! NOT SOLD THAT IT WILL BE THAT COLD...BUT
CERTAINLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ARE VERY PROBABLE...POSSIBLY
COMPROMISING RECORD COLD HIGHS. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE CLEARING CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER CHANNELED VORTICITY
WITHIN SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IF A PERSISTENT CLEAR SKY THROUGH
THU NIGHT...THEN THAT COULD RESULT IN VERY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN THE 925MB VALUES. RIGHT NOW THAT IS
MOST FAVORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR ACTIVE WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...ALMOST CLIPPER-LIKE...CROSSING THE REGION SAT/SAT
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO BOOST POPS DURING THIS
TIME ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS IN THIS WAVE BEING STRONGER AND HAVING FOCUSED
FORCING. CERTAINLY PLACEMENT AND EVEN TIMING ISSUES LIKELY EXIST
WITH WHAT WILL PAN OUT...BUT BELIEVED THE MODEL BLEND IN POPS
SEEMED TOO LOW. PLUS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS WISE WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERY 72 HOURS HAVING HAPPENED FOR ABOUT TWO
MONTHS NOW...SO SEE NO REASON TO DOWNPLAY AN AGREED POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD INTO THE START OF THE SECOND
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
600 AM CST
RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6TH:
CHICAGO: 4 DEGREES (1982)
ROCKFORD: 3 DEGREES (1982)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING BY
LATE MORNING AND ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* PREVAILING IFR VIS THROUGH LATE MORNING. OCNL BURSTS OF LIFR VIS
POSSIBLE.
* GUSTY NNE WINDS BACKING TO THE NNW THIS AFTERNOON.
* PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. FORCING REALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER AROUND 13-14Z FOR
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
SNOW GROWTH ZONE COMBINED WITH SOME VERY MODEST ASCENT IN THE WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW TENTHS. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR OR OUR LOCAL 8KM WRF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED OR BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT AND QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE FLUX.
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTS ALREADY THIS MORNING ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THROUGH TODAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS THIS MORNING...LOW-
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING END OF SNOWFALL.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
WIND DIRECTION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING TO NNWLY.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHC OF SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BACKING
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT...WHILE A STRONGER LOW
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN STATES THEN LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-
ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL NOON
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 2 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 2 PM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
811 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRST AND FOREMOST ON THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT HAS BROUGHT NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE TO AT LEAST A PART OF 35 OF 50 STATES. AS THIS
MASSIVE SYSTEM EXITS EAST WE WILL THEN TURN ATTENTION TO A ONCE
AGAIN VERY COLD PATTERN FOR FEBRUARY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING IS CENTERED ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENTS. NORMALLY WHEN UNDER SUCH A PATH AND UPPER FORCING
WITHIN A WINTER STORM...SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...BUT AS
EXPECTED THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING YESTERDAY STRUGGLED TO SATURATE
AND A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DID NOT HAVE MUCH FOR EFFICIENT
SNOW THROUGH MID-EVE. BUT NOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BEST
DYNAMICS...THE CURRENT COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO SPORADIC HEAVY SNOW...WITH LIKELY
THE BETTER RATES EASING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF MESOSCALE BANDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTED THROUGH THAT BEST TIME...INCLUDING OVER
CHICAGO...SUPPORTING TEMPORARY RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...AS
EVIDENCED BY AT TIMES ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY AND EARLIER
REPORTS. SO CERTAINLY ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY MID-LATE MORNING BUT LIKELY STILL BE
OCCURRING IN MANY EASTERN AREAS...AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS OF
SNOW STILL FALLING ALL THE WAY BACK TO WESTERN IA.
THERE HAS BEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BASED ON RADAR
DATA INTO ALL OUR LAKE COUNTIES...BUT ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY IL AND
COOK COUNTY. THE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL SLOWLY POINT MORE TOWARD NW IN BY LATE MORNING. SOME HIGHER
TOTALS WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS COVERED IN THE
ADVISORY. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS JUST ABOVE SIX
INCHES BASED ON RADAR PERSISTENCE SEEN OVERNIGHT...NAMELY IN
NORTHERN COOK/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VERY LIKELY NOT END UP IN A NICE NORTH
TO SOUTH SWATH...BUT A BROAD 3-6 SHOULD SPEAK FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING...AND THEN AGAIN AS MENTIONED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE
PERSISTENT BANDING FURTHER NORTH. FOR HEADLINES...THE ONLY CHANGE
WAS TO DOWNGRADE LIVINGSTON COUNTY BASED ON SNOWFALL NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SIX INCHES AND RATES OF SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME DRY SLOT IMPINGEMENT. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND OBSERVED SOME ON IDOT WEBCAMS
SO FEEL COMFORTABLE THAT THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN OPEN AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST IN
THOUGH THE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...AND WITH THE DEEP
SYNOPTIC SATURATION AND EXISTING FORCING WORKING EAST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT INTENSE. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH
BLOWING SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING IN OPEN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE
MOST FRESH SNOW. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING
WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS ADVECTION
OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS A POTENT 1047MB HIGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS FROM THE
ROCKIES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER DARK
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WHILE NOT AS GREAT OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPS IN ADVECTION SCHEMES...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVE AND MAYBE INTO OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A BETTER
WESTERLY PUSH IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE
GONE MORE TOWARD CLEAR THEN WITH DROPPING TEMPS IN THAT TIME. FRI
MORNING TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED IN ALL OUTLYING AREAS IF
THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...WITH POSSIBLY A GOOD PART OF THE CHICAGO
METRO TOO. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL IL ON THIS SHIFT...BUT WITH CLOUD
CHALLENGES AND AMPLE CURRENT HEADLINES OPTED TO ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT A BETTER CHANCE TO ASSESS PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOWEST
WIND CHILLS.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE...WITH
THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INDICATING ROCKFORD REMAINING
BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY! NOT SOLD THAT IT WILL BE THAT COLD...BUT
CERTAINLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ARE VERY PROBABLE...POSSIBLY
COMPROMISING RECORD COLD HIGHS. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE CLEARING CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER CHANNELED VORTICITY
WITHIN SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IF A PERSISTENT CLEAR SKY THROUGH
THU NIGHT...THEN THAT COULD RESULT IN VERY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN THE 925MB VALUES. RIGHT NOW THAT IS
MOST FAVORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR ACTIVE WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...ALMOST CLIPPER-LIKE...CROSSING THE REGION SAT/SAT
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO BOOST POPS DURING THIS
TIME ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS IN THIS WAVE BEING STRONGER AND HAVING FOCUSED
FORCING. CERTAINLY PLACEMENT AND EVEN TIMING ISSUES LIKELY EXIST
WITH WHAT WILL PAN OUT...BUT BELIEVED THE MODEL BLEND IN POPS
SEEMED TOO LOW. PLUS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS WISE WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERY 72 HOURS HAVING HAPPENED FOR ABOUT TWO
MONTHS NOW...SO SEE NO REASON TO DOWNPLAY AN AGREED POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD INTO THE START OF THE SECOND
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
600 AM CST
RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6TH:
CHICAGO: 4 DEGREES (1982)
ROCKFORD: 3 DEGREES (1982)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING BY
LATE MORNING AND ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* PREVAILING IFR VIS THROUGH LATE MORNING. OCNL BURSTS OF LIFR VIS
POSSIBLE.
* GUSTY NNE WINDS BACKING TO THE NNW THIS AFTERNOON.
* PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. FORCING REALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER AROUND 13-14Z FOR
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
SNOW GROWTH ZONE COMBINED WITH SOME VERY MODEST ASCENT IN THE WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW TENTHS. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR OR OUR LOCAL 8KM WRF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED OR BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT AND QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE FLUX.
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTS ALREADY THIS MORNING ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THROUGH TODAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS THIS MORNING...LOW-
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING END OF SNOWFALL.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
WIND DIRECTION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING TO NNWLY.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHC OF SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BACKING
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT...WHILE A STRONGER LOW
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN STATES THEN LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032
UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
713 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRST AND FOREMOST ON THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT HAS BROUGHT NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE TO AT LEAST A PART OF 35 OF 50 STATES. AS THIS
MASSIVE SYSTEM EXITS EAST WE WILL THEN TURN ATTENTION TO A ONCE
AGAIN VERY COLD PATTERN FOR FEBRUARY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING IS CENTERED ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENTS. NORMALLY WHEN UNDER SUCH A PATH AND UPPER FORCING
WITHIN A WINTER STORM...SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...BUT AS
EXPECTED THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING YESTERDAY STRUGGLED TO SATURATE
AND A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DID NOT HAVE MUCH FOR EFFICIENT
SNOW THROUGH MID-EVE. BUT NOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BEST
DYNAMICS...THE CURRENT COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO SPORADIC HEAVY SNOW...WITH LIKELY
THE BETTER RATES EASING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF MESOSCALE BANDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTED THROUGH THAT BEST TIME...INCLUDING OVER
CHICAGO...SUPPORTING TEMPORARY RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...AS
EVIDENCED BY AT TIMES ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY AND EARLIER
REPORTS. SO CERTAINLY ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY MID-LATE MORNING BUT LIKELY STILL BE
OCCURRING IN MANY EASTERN AREAS...AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS OF
SNOW STILL FALLING ALL THE WAY BACK TO WESTERN IA.
THERE HAS BEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BASED ON RADAR
DATA INTO ALL OUR LAKE COUNTIES...BUT ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY IL AND
COOK COUNTY. THE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL SLOWLY POINT MORE TOWARD NW IN BY LATE MORNING. SOME HIGHER
TOTALS WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS COVERED IN THE
ADVISORY. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS JUST ABOVE SIX
INCHES BASED ON RADAR PERSISTENCE SEEN OVERNIGHT...NAMELY IN
NORTHERN COOK/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VERY LIKELY NOT END UP IN A NICE NORTH
TO SOUTH SWATH...BUT A BROAD 3-6 SHOULD SPEAK FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING...AND THEN AGAIN AS MENTIONED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE
PERSISTENT BANDING FURTHER NORTH. FOR HEADLINES...THE ONLY CHANGE
WAS TO DOWNGRADE LIVINGSTON COUNTY BASED ON SNOWFALL NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SIX INCHES AND RATES OF SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME DRY SLOT IMPINGEMENT. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND OBSERVED SOME ON IDOT WEBCAMS
SO FEEL COMFORTABLE THAT THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN OPEN AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST IN
THOUGH THE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...AND WITH THE DEEP
SYNOPTIC SATURATION AND EXISTING FORCING WORKING EAST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT INTENSE. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH
BLOWING SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING IN OPEN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE
MOST FRESH SNOW. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING
WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS ADVECTION
OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS A POTENT 1047MB HIGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS FROM THE
ROCKIES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER DARK
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WHILE NOT AS GREAT OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPS IN ADVECTION SCHEMES...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVE AND MAYBE INTO OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A BETTER
WESTERLY PUSH IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE
GONE MORE TOWARD CLEAR THEN WITH DROPPING TEMPS IN THAT TIME. FRI
MORNING TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED IN ALL OUTLYING AREAS IF
THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...WITH POSSIBLY A GOOD PART OF THE CHICAGO
METRO TOO. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL IL ON THIS SHIFT...BUT WITH CLOUD
CHALLENGES AND AMPLE CURRENT HEADLINES OPTED TO ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT A BETTER CHANCE TO ASSESS PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOWEST
WIND CHILLS.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE...WITH
THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INDICATING ROCKFORD REMAINING
BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY! NOT SOLD THAT IT WILL BE THAT COLD...BUT
CERTAINLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ARE VERY PROBABLE...POSSIBLY
COMPROMISING RECORD COLD HIGHS. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE CLEARING CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER CHANNELED VORTICITY
WITHIN SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IF A PERSISTENT CLEAR SKY THROUGH
THU NIGHT...THEN THAT COULD RESULT IN VERY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN THE 925MB VALUES. RIGHT NOW THAT IS
MOST FAVORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR ACTIVE WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...ALMOST CLIPPER-LIKE...CROSSING THE REGION SAT/SAT
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO BOOST POPS DURING THIS
TIME ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS IN THIS WAVE BEING STRONGER AND HAVING FOCUSED
FORCING. CERTAINLY PLACEMENT AND EVEN TIMING ISSUES LIKELY EXIST
WITH WHAT WILL PAN OUT...BUT BELIEVED THE MODEL BLEND IN POPS
SEEMED TOO LOW. PLUS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS WISE WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERY 72 HOURS HAVING HAPPENED FOR ABOUT TWO
MONTHS NOW...SO SEE NO REASON TO DOWNPLAY AN AGREED POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD INTO THE START OF THE SECOND
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
600 AM CST
RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6TH:
CHICAGO: 4 DEGREES (1982)
ROCKFORD: 3 DEGREES (1982)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW EASING SOME EARLY
TO MID MORNING AND DIMINISHING COMPLETELY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NE WINDS BACKING TO THE NNW THIS AFTERNOON.
* PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS...TEMPO DOWN TO IFR THIS MORNING. IMPROVING
TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. FORCING REALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER AROUND 13-14Z FOR
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
SNOW GROWTH ZONE COMBINED WITH SOME VERY MODEST ASCENT IN THE WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW TENTHS. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR OR OUR LOCAL 8KM WRF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED OR BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT AND QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE FLUX.
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTS ALREADY THIS MORNING ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THROUGH TODAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS THIS MORNING...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING END OF SNOWFALL.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTION.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHC OF SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BACKING
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT...WHILE A STRONGER LOW
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN STATES THEN LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032
UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
535 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRST AND FOREMOST ON THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT HAS BROUGHT NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE TO AT LEAST A PART OF 35 OF 50 STATES. AS THIS
MASSIVE SYSTEM EXITS EAST WE WILL THEN TURN ATTENTION TO A ONCE
AGAIN VERY COLD PATTERN FOR FEBRUARY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING IS CENTERED ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENTS. NORMALLY WHEN UNDER SUCH A PATH AND UPPER FORCING
WITHIN A WINTER STORM...SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...BUT AS
EXPECTED THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING YESTERDAY STRUGGLED TO SATURATE
AND A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DID NOT HAVE MUCH FOR EFFICIENT
SNOW THROUGH MID-EVE. BUT NOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BEST
DYNAMICS...THE CURRENT COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO SPORADIC HEAVY SNOW...WITH LIKELY
THE BETTER RATES EASING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF MESOSCALE BANDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTED THROUGH THAT BEST TIME...INCLUDING OVER
CHICAGO...SUPPORTING TEMPORARY RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...AS
EVIDENCED BY AT TIMES ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY AND EARLIER
REPORTS. SO CERTAINLY ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY MID-LATE MORNING BUT LIKELY STILL BE
OCCURRING IN MANY EASTERN AREAS...AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS OF
SNOW STILL FALLING ALL THE WAY BACK TO WESTERN IA.
THERE HAS BEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BASED ON RADAR
DATA INTO ALL OUR LAKE COUNTIES...BUT ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY IL AND
COOK COUNTY. THE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL SLOWLY POINT MORE TOWARD NW IN BY LATE MORNING. SOME HIGHER
TOTALS WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS COVERED IN THE
ADVISORY. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS JUST ABOVE SIX
INCHES BASED ON RADAR PERSISTENCE SEEN OVERNIGHT...NAMELY IN
NORTHERN COOK/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VERY LIKELY NOT END UP IN A NICE NORTH
TO SOUTH SWATH...BUT A BROAD 3-6 SHOULD SPEAK FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING...AND THEN AGAIN AS MENTIONED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE
PERSISTENT BANDING FURTHER NORTH. FOR HEADLINES...THE ONLY CHANGE
WAS TO DOWNGRADE LIVINGSTON COUNTY BASED ON SNOWFALL NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SIX INCHES AND RATES OF SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME DRY SLOT IMPINGEMENT. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND OBSERVED SOME ON IDOT WEBCAMS
SO FEEL COMFORTABLE THAT THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN OPEN AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST IN
THOUGH THE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...AND WITH THE DEEP
SYNOPTIC SATURATION AND EXISTING FORCING WORKING EAST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT INTENSE. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH
BLOWING SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING IN OPEN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE
MOST FRESH SNOW. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING
WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS ADVECTION
OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS A POTENT 1047MB HIGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS FROM THE
ROCKIES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER DARK
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WHILE NOT AS GREAT OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPS IN ADVECTION SCHEMES...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVE AND MAYBE INTO OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A BETTER
WESTERLY PUSH IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE
GONE MORE TOWARD CLEAR THEN WITH DROPPING TEMPS IN THAT TIME. FRI
MORNING TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED IN ALL OUTLYING AREAS IF
THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...WITH POSSIBLY A GOOD PART OF THE CHICAGO
METRO TOO. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL IL ON THIS SHIFT...BUT WITH CLOUD
CHALLENGES AND AMPLE CURRENT HEADLINES OPTED TO ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT A BETTER CHANCE TO ASSESS PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOWEST
WIND CHILLS.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE...WITH
THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INDICATING ROCKFORD REMAINING
BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY! NOT SOLD THAT IT WILL BE THAT COLD...BUT
CERTAINLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ARE VERY PROBABLE...POSSIBLY
COMPROMISING RECORD COLD HIGHS. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE CLEARING CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER CHANNELED VORTICITY
WITHIN SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IF A PERSISTENT CLEAR SKY THROUGH
THU NIGHT...THEN THAT COULD RESULT IN VERY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN THE 925MB VALUES. RIGHT NOW THAT IS
MOST FAVORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR ACTIVE WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...ALMOST CLIPPER-LIKE...CROSSING THE REGION SAT/SAT
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO BOOST POPS DURING THIS
TIME ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS IN THIS WAVE BEING STRONGER AND HAVING FOCUSED
FORCING. CERTAINLY PLACEMENT AND EVEN TIMING ISSUES LIKELY EXIST
WITH WHAT WILL PAN OUT...BUT BELIEVED THE MODEL BLEND IN POPS
SEEMED TOO LOW. PLUS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS WISE WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERY 72 HOURS HAVING HAPPENED FOR ABOUT TWO
MONTHS NOW...SO SEE NO REASON TO DOWNPLAY AN AGREED POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD INTO THE START OF THE SECOND
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW EASING SOME EARLY
TO MID MORNING AND DIMINISHING COMPLETELY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NE WINDS BACKING TO THE NNW THIS AFTERNOON.
* PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS...TEMPO DOWN TO IFR THIS MORNING. IMPROVING
TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. FORCING REALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER AROUND 13-14Z FOR
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
SNOW GROWTH ZONE COMBINED WITH SOME VERY MODEST ASCENT IN THE WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW TENTHS. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR OR OUR LOCAL 8KM WRF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED OR BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT AND QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE FLUX.
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTS ALREADY THIS MORNING ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THROUGH TODAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS THIS MORNING...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING END OF SNOWFALL.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTION.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHC OF SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BACKING
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT...WHILE A STRONGER LOW
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN STATES THEN LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032
UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1140 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE EVENING UPDATE INCLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND
SPEEDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH TONIGHT AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL. LOW
OVERCAST WILL BUFFER JUST HOW COLD WE GET BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN -15 AND -25 BY MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH 8 OR 9 AM. THE WIND IS NOT CAUSING
VISIBILITY ISSUES UP NORTH AND THERE IS LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED TO
FALL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS NOT NEEDED BUT OPEN AREAS MAY SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER WAVE IS LIFTING MAINLY
EAST SO WE WILL MISS OUT ON THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FOR THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT BUT THE RAP AND THE NAM HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE
SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA SO WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 4 TO 6 MORE
HOURS OF MODERATELY ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. RADAR IS SHOWING A
DEFORMATION ZONE TRYING TO SET UP BUT IT IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AND REALLY HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING
ESTABLISHED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT BUT THE WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE BLOWING ALL NIGHT AND PUSHING THE SNOW AROUND. THE
SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL DICTATE THE HEADLINES TOMORROW AS THE WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
SNOW ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WITH WIDE SPREAD
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO ONE MILE OR LESS DUE TO SNOW. GENERAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE DES MOINES METRO REGION. CURRENT SNOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD QG FORCING AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH AND GOOD MOISTURE OVERRUNNING INTO THE REGION. THE BULK OF
THIS FORCING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
THUS HAVE NOT HAD THE PEAK SNOW RATIOS YET.
THE WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO TWO DEFINED
DEFORMATION ZONES WITH THE PRIMARY TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH A SECONDARY
DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 30. THE DEPTH OF THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE LAYER. THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WITH RANGE FROM NEAR 950 MB TO 600 MB BY 6 PM. SNOW
RATIOS WILL APPROACH 20 TO 1 FOR A PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW FALL RATES EXCEEDING ONE INCH PER HOUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FOCUSED ON THE HIGHWAY 30 TO
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDORS. THEREFORE OVERALL EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL
RATES NEAR ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR INCREASING TO ONE INCH PER HOUR
FOR A PERIOD. DUE TO THIS...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS LIKELY
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAVE LIFTED TO WINTER STORM WARNING
TO INCLUDE BOONE...STORY AND MARSHALL COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DRIVES SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERAL HOURS OF NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH IS EXPECTED CAUSING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE NEW FLUFFY SNOW. POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPS
FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS MASON CITY AND WAVERLY THAT ALREADY HAVE
SNOW IN PLACE BUT ARE OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY. FINALLY WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL DIP TO 20 TO 25 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. HAVE OPTED TO
NOT ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR THIS. MAY BE ABLE TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR WIND CHILLS AND AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW...IF IT DEVELOPS NORTH.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH LINGERING SNOW CHANCES TOMORROW AND
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/SREF
TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY...THEN GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDED BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLE FLURRIES TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SKIRTS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND KEEPS IOWA WITHIN THE CAA REGIME. THE 850MB
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO -20C BY 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS
LOOK TO RANGE IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW RANGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. ESPECIALLY WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 12 TO 18 BELOW ZERO RANGE.
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH AS THE 12Z MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND ALLOWS FOR SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW BY FRIDAY. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE WAA DEVELOPS PAST 06Z.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ECMWF
IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
SATURDAY. THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ABOVE THE DENDRITIC LAYER
BUT THE MCW/ALO/DSM GFS SOUNDINGS DEEPLY SATURATED IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 750MB BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS...SO BLSN SEEMS
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CAA CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND AN EVEN
COLDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS PLANTING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER IOWA BY 12Z MONDAY. TRENDED COLDER FOR LOW
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
AREAS OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH
09-12Z THOUGH RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF SNOW DIMINISHING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12Z. SFC WIND WILL REMAIN N TO
NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 15KTS AFT 18Z BUT MAY
STILL BE GUSTY ACROSS EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BOONE-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-JASPER-
LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR AUDUBON-
BLACK HAWK-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HARDIN-SAC-TAMA-WEBSTER.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CERRO GORDO-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL STILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO KEPT THINGS SIMPLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GET AND HOW
COLD WIND CHILL READINGS DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER
CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AT THIS
TIME. EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF AND GFS DID THE BEST ON THE JET THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS DID FINE
WITH THE SREF AND NAM THE WORST WHILE THE REMAINING OUTPUT WAS ABOUT
THE SAME. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND SREF
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST
HALF OF THE NIGHT THIS MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH AND AFFECTS MORE OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN HALF MORE UNDER
SUBSIDENCE.
FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO
PROVIDE LIFT. WHEN THE AIR MASS GETS THIS COLD THE MODELS TEND TO
OVERPRODUCE CLOUD COVER SO AM REALLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH THERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY BUT COULD
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EVENING SHIFT HAD TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE EAST OF THAT. THOSE
ARE IN AFFECT UNTIL 18Z. CURRENTLY THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY ARE DOING WELL AND WILL NOT CHANGE. CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS PARAMOUNT TO WHAT KIND OF WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHT AND HOW LONG TO MAKE IT. PER REASONING GIVEN...MODELS
ARE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER RIGHT NOW WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. CURRENTLY THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE RAP ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FIELD WELL...WHICH IS
SCARY.
PER THAT PLUS SNOWFIELD...VERY COLD AIR MASS AND START TO THE DAY...
AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. IF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST
FOR KGLD IS -1 WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR THE DAY. AS
STATED ABOVE...CURRENT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...
IF CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST PANS OUT...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS THIS FURTHER.
DURING THE NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTING A SATURATED AIR MASS FROM 700
MB DOWN WHICH IS IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED THAT ACCORDINGLY. MODELS FORECASTING
VERY COLD MINS AS SURFACE RIDGE COMES IN DURING THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING...
CONTINUED THE VERY COLD FORECAST BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE. AS RESULT...ANOTHER WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED
WITH ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AND THE
COMPLEXITY/UNCERTAINTY OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS AFTER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT IS DONE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP AT JET LEVEL WITH A
COUPLE OF MODELS SHOWING THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT AND A COUPLE OF THEM
IN THE RIGHT REAR THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
REMAIN AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE
DEPTH OF SATURATED AIR MASS DECREASES BUT IT STILL IS IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE. SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS...CLOUD COVER AND A SNOWFIELD
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY COLD ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER. DURING THE NIGHT MODELS REDEVELOP OR KEEP A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MOISTURE GETS
MUCH MORE SHALLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME WILL
CONFINE THE FLURRIES TO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WARMS WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ONLY
THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LATE IN THE NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER JET STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER WITH ALL THE MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 700 MB
AND MAYBE SOME VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY END UP BEING
STRATUS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM UP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH. BECAUSE OF THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER...
SNOW FIELD...AND MODELS TENDENCY TO SCOUR OUT ARCTIC AIR TOO FAST...
WENT TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SMALL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP. TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE MONDAY AS LESS DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 1000-500MB MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING SOME
PRECIP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ONCE THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE
TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS MILD.
LIGHT WIND SHIFTS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DIRECTION
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH. KGLD WILL EXPERIENCE A SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT AGREED FROM
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MODEL FORECASTS MAY BE NOT HANDLING CLOUD/FOG
FORECAST WELL DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...LEFT OUT THE FOG FOR
NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1028 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO EXPAND THE WIND CHILL WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GET AND HOW
COLD WIND CHILL READINGS DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER
CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AT THIS
TIME. EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF AND GFS DID THE BEST ON THE JET THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS DID FINE
WITH THE SREF AND NAM THE WORST WHILE THE REMAINING OUTPUT WAS ABOUT
THE SAME. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND SREF
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST
HALF OF THE NIGHT THIS MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH AND AFFECTS MORE OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN HALF MORE UNDER
SUBSIDENCE.
FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO
PROVIDE LIFT. WHEN THE AIR MASS GETS THIS COLD THE MODELS TEND TO
OVERPRODUCE CLOUD COVER SO AM REALLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH THERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY BUT COULD
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EVENING SHIFT HAD TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE EAST OF THAT. THOSE
ARE IN AFFECT UNTIL 18Z. CURRENTLY THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY ARE DOING WELL AND WILL NOT CHANGE. CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS PARAMOUNT TO WHAT KIND OF WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHT AND HOW LONG TO MAKE IT. PER REASONING GIVEN...MODELS
ARE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER RIGHT NOW WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. CURRENTLY THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE RAP ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FIELD WELL...WHICH IS
SCARY.
PER THAT PLUS SNOWFIELD...VERY COLD AIR MASS AND START TO THE DAY...
AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. IF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST
FOR KGLD IS -1 WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR THE DAY. AS
STATED ABOVE...CURRENT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...
IF CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST PANS OUT...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS THIS FURTHER.
DURING THE NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTING A SATURATED AIR MASS FROM 700
MB DOWN WHICH IS IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED THAT ACCORDINGLY. MODELS FORECASTING
VERY COLD MINS AS SURFACE RIDGE COMES IN DURING THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING...
CONTINUED THE VERY COLD FORECAST BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE. AS RESULT...ANOTHER WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED
WITH ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AND THE
COMPLEXITY/UNCERTAINTY OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS AFTER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT IS DONE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP AT JET LEVEL WITH A
COUPLE OF MODELS SHOWING THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT AND A COUPLE OF THEM
IN THE RIGHT REAR THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
REMAIN AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE
DEPTH OF SATURATED AIR MASS DECREASES BUT IT STILL IS IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE. SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS...CLOUD COVER AND A SNOWFIELD
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY COLD ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER. DURING THE NIGHT MODELS REDEVELOP OR KEEP A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MOISTURE GETS
MUCH MORE SHALLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME WILL
CONFINE THE FLURRIES TO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WARMS WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ONLY
THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LATE IN THE NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER JET STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER WITH ALL THE MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 700 MB
AND MAYBE SOME VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY END UP BEING
STRATUS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM UP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH. BECAUSE OF THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER...
SNOW FIELD...AND MODELS TENDENCY TO SCOUR OUT ARCTIC AIR TOO FAST...
WENT TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SMALL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP. TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE MONDAY AS LESS DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 1000-500MB MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING SOME
PRECIP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ONCE THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE
TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS MILD.
LIGHT WIND SHIFTS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DIRECTION
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH. KGLD WILL EXPERIENCE A SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT AGREED FROM
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MODEL FORECASTS MAY BE NOT HANDLING CLOUD/FOG
FORECAST WELL DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...LEFT OUT THE FOG FOR
NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
546 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO EXPAND THE WIND CHILL WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GET AND HOW
COLD WIND CHILL READINGS DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER
CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AT THIS
TIME. EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF AND GFS DID THE BEST ON THE JET THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS DID FINE
WITH THE SREF AND NAM THE WORST WHILE THE REMAINING OUTPUT WAS ABOUT
THE SAME. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND SREF
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST
HALF OF THE NIGHT THIS MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH AND AFFECTS MORE OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN HALF MORE UNDER
SUBSIDENCE.
FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO
PROVIDE LIFT. WHEN THE AIR MASS GETS THIS COLD THE MODELS TEND TO
OVERPRODUCE CLOUD COVER SO AM REALLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH THERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY BUT COULD
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EVENING SHIFT HAD TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE EAST OF THAT. THOSE
ARE IN AFFECT UNTIL 18Z. CURRENTLY THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY ARE DOING WELL AND WILL NOT CHANGE. CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS PARAMOUNT TO WHAT KIND OF WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHT AND HOW LONG TO MAKE IT. PER REASONING GIVEN...MODELS
ARE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER RIGHT NOW WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. CURRENTLY THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE RAP ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FIELD WELL...WHICH IS
SCARY.
PER THAT PLUS SNOWFIELD...VERY COLD AIR MASS AND START TO THE DAY...
AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. IF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST
FOR KGLD IS -1 WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR THE DAY. AS
STATED ABOVE...CURRENT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...
IF CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST PANS OUT...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS THIS FURTHER.
DURING THE NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTING A SATURATED AIR MASS FROM 700
MB DOWN WHICH IS IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED THAT ACCORDINGLY. MODELS FORECASTING
VERY COLD MINS AS SURFACE RIDGE COMES IN DURING THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING...
CONTINUED THE VERY COLD FORECAST BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE. AS RESULT...ANOTHER WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED
WITH ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AND THE
COMPLEXITY/UNCERTAINTY OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS AFTER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT IS DONE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP AT JET LEVEL WITH A
COUPLE OF MODELS SHOWING THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT AND A COUPLE OF THEM
IN THE RIGHT REAR THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
REMAIN AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE
DEPTH OF SATURATED AIR MASS DECREASES BUT IT STILL IS IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE. SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS...CLOUD COVER AND A SNOWFIELD
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY COLD ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER. DURING THE NIGHT MODELS REDEVELOP OR KEEP A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MOISTURE GETS
MUCH MORE SHALLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME WILL
CONFINE THE FLURRIES TO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WARMS WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ONLY
THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LATE IN THE NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER JET STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER WITH ALL THE MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 700 MB
AND MAYBE SOME VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY END UP BEING
STRATUS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM UP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH. BECAUSE OF THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER...
SNOW FIELD...AND MODELS TENDENCY TO SCOUR OUT ARCTIC AIR TOO FAST...
WENT TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SMALL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP. TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE MONDAY AS LESS DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 1000-500MB MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING SOME
PRECIP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ONCE THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MODELS ARE OVERPREDICTING THE COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW LOW
THOSE CEILINGS ARE. IN SUCH AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS...THE
MODELS THINK THERE IS CLOUD COVER BECAUSE OF THAT. SO HAVE NOT PUT
IN THE LOW CEILINGS THEY ARE PREDICTING AND KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH AND WEST OF KGLD. SO CHOSE NOT TO MENTION
ANY SNOW AT EITHER TAF SITE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
444 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GET AND HOW
COLD WIND CHILL READINGS DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER
CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AT THIS
TIME. EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF AND GFS DID THE BEST ON THE JET THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS DID FINE
WITH THE SREF AND NAM THE WORST WHILE THE REMAINING OUTPUT WAS ABOUT
THE SAME. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND SREF
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST
HALF OF THE NIGHT THIS MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH AND AFFECTS MORE OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN HALF MORE UNDER
SUBSIDENCE.
FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO
PROVIDE LIFT. WHEN THE AIR MASS GETS THIS COLD THE MODELS TEND TO
OVERPRODUCE CLOUD COVER SO AM REALLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH THERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY BUT COULD
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EVENING SHIFT HAD TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE EAST OF THAT. THOSE
ARE IN AFFECT UNTIL 18Z. CURRENTLY THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY ARE DOING WELL AND WILL NOT CHANGE. CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS PARAMOUNT TO WHAT KIND OF WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHT AND HOW LONG TO MAKE IT. PER REASONING GIVEN...MODELS
ARE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER RIGHT NOW WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. CURRENTLY THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE RAP ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FIELD WELL...WHICH IS
SCARY.
PER THAT PLUS SNOWFIELD...VERY COLD AIR MASS AND START TO THE DAY...
AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. IF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST
FOR KGLD IS -1 WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR THE DAY. AS
STATED ABOVE...CURRENT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...
IF CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST PANS OUT...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS THIS FURTHER.
DURING THE NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTING A SATURATED AIR MASS FROM 700
MB DOWN WHICH IS IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED THAT ACCORDINGLY. MODELS FORECASTING
VERY COLD MINS AS SURFACE RIDGE COMES IN DURING THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING...
CONTINUED THE VERY COLD FORECAST BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE. AS RESULT...ANOTHER WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED
WITH ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AND THE
COMPLEXITY/UNCERTAINTY OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS AFTER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT IS DONE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP AT JET LEVEL WITH A
COUPLE OF MODELS SHOWING THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT AND A COUPLE OF THEM
IN THE RIGHT REAR THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
REMAIN AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE
DEPTH OF SATURATED AIR MASS DECREASES BUT IT STILL IS IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE. SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS...CLOUD COVER AND A SNOWFIELD
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY COLD ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER. DURING THE NIGHT MODELS REDEVELOP OR KEEP A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MOISTURE GETS
MUCH MORE SHALLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME WILL
CONFINE THE FLURRIES TO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WARMS WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ONLY
THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LATE IN THE NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER JET STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER WITH ALL THE MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 700 MB
AND MAYBE SOME VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY END UP BEING
STRATUS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM UP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH. BECAUSE OF THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER...
SNOW FIELD...AND MODELS TENDENCY TO SCOUR OUT ARCTIC AIR TOO FAST...
WENT TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SMALL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP. TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE MONDAY AS LESS DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 1000-500MB MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING SOME
PRECIP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ONCE THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MODELS ARE OVERPREDICTING THE COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW LOW
THOSE CEILINGS ARE. IN SUCH AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS...THE
MODELS THINK THERE IS CLOUD COVER BECAUSE OF THAT. SO HAVE NOT PUT
IN THE LOW CEILINGS THEY ARE PREDICTING AND KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH AND WEST OF KGLD. SO CHOSE NOT TO MENTION
ANY SNOW AT EITHER TAF SITE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
029-042.
CO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GET AND HOW
COLD WIND CHILL READINGS DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER
CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AT THIS
TIME. EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF AND GFS DID THE BEST ON THE JET THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS DID FINE
WITH THE SREF AND NAM THE WORST WHILE THE REMAINING OUTPUT WAS ABOUT
THE SAME. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND SREF
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST
HALF OF THE NIGHT THIS MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH AND AFFECTS MORE OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN HALF MORE UNDER
SUBSIDENCE.
FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO
PROVIDE LIFT. WHEN THE AIR MASS GETS THIS COLD THE MODELS TEND TO
OVERPRODUCE CLOUD COVER SO AM REALLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH THERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY BUT COULD
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EVENING SHIFT HAD TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE EAST OF THAT. THOSE
ARE IN AFFECT UNTIL 18Z. CURRENTLY THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY ARE DOING WELL AND WILL NOT CHANGE. CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS PARAMOUNT TO WHAT KIND OF WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHT AND HOW LONG TO MAKE IT. PER REASONING GIVEN...MODELS
ARE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER RIGHT NOW WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. CURRENTLY THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE RAP ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FIELD WELL...WHICH IS
SCARY.
PER THAT PLUS SNOWFIELD...VERY COLD AIR MASS AND START TO THE DAY...
AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. IF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST
FOR KGLD IS -1 WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR THE DAY. AS
STATED ABOVE...CURRENT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...
IF CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST PANS OUT...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS THIS FURTHER.
DURING THE NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTING A SATURATED AIR MASS FROM 700
MB DOWN WHICH IS IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED THAT ACCORDINGLY. MODELS FORECASTING
VERY COLD MINS AS SURFACE RIDGE COMES IN DURING THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING...
CONTINUED THE VERY COLD FORECAST BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE. AS RESULT...ANOTHER WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED
WITH ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AND THE
COMPLEXITY/UNCERTAINTY OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS AFTER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT IS DONE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP AT JET LEVEL WITH A
COUPLE OF MODELS SHOWING THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT AND A COUPLE OF THEM
IN THE RIGHT REAR THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
REMAIN AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE
DEPTH OF SATURATED AIR MASS DECREASES BUT IT STILL IS IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE. SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS...CLOUD COVER AND A SNOWFIELD
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY COLD ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER. DURING THE NIGHT MODELS REDEVELOP OR KEEP A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MOISTURE GETS
MUCH MORE SHALLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME WILL
CONFINE THE FLURRIES TO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WARMS WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ONLY
THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LATE IN THE NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER JET STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER WITH ALL THE MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 700 MB
AND MAYBE SOME VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY END UP BEING
STRATUS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM UP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH. BECAUSE OF THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER...
SNOW FIELD...AND MODELS TENDENCY TO SCOUR OUT ARCTIC AIR TOO FAST...
WENT TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SMALL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP. TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE MONDAY AS LESS DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 1000-500MB MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING SOME
PRECIP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ONCE THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST...SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY TAPERED OFF AT KGLD AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AT KMCK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BEHIND THE
SNOWFALL...MIST HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SNOW PACK SO HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VISIBILITY AT KGLD TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. KMCK WILL START
OUT IFR WITH SNOWFALL AND BECOME MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
SNOWFALL ENDS AT 09Z. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS LAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW WITH VISIBILITY RETURNING TO VFR
IN THE MORNING AROUND 12Z. LOW OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD BECOME VFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 0Z FOR KMCK AND 3Z FOR KGLD.
THE CLEARING TOMORROW EVENING IS REFLECTED IN GFS MOS GUIDANCE
AND SEEMS MOST PROBABLE CONSIDERING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE
DEPARTING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1100 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
UPGRADED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO A WIND
CHILL WARNING. WE HAVE EXCEEDED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...WIND
CHILL READINGS 25 BELOW ZERO OR LESS...ALREADY AT KGLD WITH A
READING AROUND 1030 PM MST OF 27 BELOW ZERO. WE HAVE FLIRTED WITH
CRITERIA ALREADY AT KITR IN ADDITION TO A FEW OTHER SITES SO
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE. WINDS ARE STAYING UP A COUPLE KNOTS
HIGHER LONGER THAN EXPECTED SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO UPGRADE.
WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO ARE NOW EXPECTED BY
THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS
OCCURRING NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
EVENING. OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
LATEST HRRR...CONSSHORT AND NAM GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT HAS WIDESPREAD -10 TO -15...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS
-20...TEMPERATURES BY THE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THOUGHT THIS WAS A LITTLE EXTREME SO TEMPERED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
CONSSHORT AND THE LATEST NAM. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WATCHING WIND
CHILLS VERY CLOSELY AS WE COULD APPROACH TO BRIEFLY EXCEED WIND
CHILL WARNING CRITERIA IF THESE TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE WINTER STORM IS BEGINNING TO RELEASE ITS GRIP ON THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS EVENING. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS
WELL AS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL REDUCE
THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE.
DECIDED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE MILE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. ISSUED A
NOWCAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE STILL
MAY BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF VISIBILITIES AT TO JUST BELOW ONE
MILE.
IN OTHER NEWS...TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WENT AHEAD AS PLANNED WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ONLY
CHANGE WAS TO MAKE THE BEGINNING TIME AS 7 PM CST...6 PM MST. SOME
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SPECIFICALLY...KGLD WAS AT -15...KITR WAS AT -15 ...YUMA COLORADO
WAS AT -16...AND A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS WERE NEAR CRITERIA. THOSE
WOULD BE KMCK AT -13 AND KHLC AT -12. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
WATCH ON TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS WE MAY FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS WIND CHILLS 25 BELOW ZERO. LATEST
GUIDANCE AS OF 18Z CAME IN A LITTLE COLD SO REFLECTED THAT IN THE
GRIDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW LOOK QUITE COLD...HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
JUST ABOVE ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
SATELLITE AND RADAR RETURNS SHOW DECREASING TREND MATCHING MODEL
GUIDANCE. OBS STILL REPORTING LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY REPORTED BETWEEN 1/2SM TO 2SM. ACTUAL SNOW INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY.
THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF LIGHT SNOW
COMBINING WITH WIND/BLOWING SNOW.
LINGERING LIFT/MOISTURE COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING AS THE INITIAL MID LEVEL WAVE EXITS. WITH
FORCING/MOISTURE MUCH WEAKER/LESS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIMITED. WE MIGHT SEE ANOTHER HALF IN TO ONE INCH IN THE FAR
EAST THIS EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET...SO WHILE DRIFTING OR MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING VISIBILITIES OVERALL
SHOULD BE IMPROVING. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE
EXPIRATION OF THE ADVISORY THROUGH 03Z FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WHILE EXPIRING THE ADVISORY IN THE WEST WHEN THE TIME COMES.
THIS IS IF CONDITIONS ARE SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE EAST WHERE
WINDS MAY BE STRONGER. AT THIS POINT I AM PLANNING NO CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY...WITH EVERYTHING ON TRACK.
OTHER THAN BUMPING UP POPS SOME IN THE EVENING...I DID ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PASSES NORTH.
ANY ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAYBE A
DUSTING POSSIBLE (AT THE MOST).
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S
DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS...AND THE PLAN IS
TO WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT WSW IS EXPIRED TO AVOID CONFUSION
REGARDING THE WSW STATEMENTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUDY BUT DRY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY
STAY NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL STAY
CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW. WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY BRING A
LIGHT DUSTING OF AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW SNOW. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SYSTEM MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING TO 20
BELOW...BUT STILL EXPECTING THEM TO REACH THE 10 TO 15 BELOW
RANGE. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW RETURN WITH DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING...MORE WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IS NOT LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE JET
STREAMS ARE NO LONGER PHASED AND IT COMES OUT IN TWO PIECES. THE
FIRST ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS TOO FAR SOUTH BUT THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON SATURDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SNOWPACK...BUT MODELS INDICATE UP TO 40KTS IN THE 0-1KM LAYER
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH NEW SNOW ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES AND IF THE OLD SNOWPACK CAN
ICE OVER ON A DAY WITH SOME SUN. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW COMES ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN THE
NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG DEAL AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST...SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY TAPERED OFF AT KGLD AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AT KMCK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BEHIND THE
SNOWFALL...MIST HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SNOW PACK SO HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VISIBILITY AT KGLD TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. KMCK WILL START
OUT IFR WITH SNOWFALL AND BECOME MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
SNOWFALL ENDS AT 09Z. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS LAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW WITH VISIBILITY RETURNING TO VFR
IN THE MORNING AROUND 12Z. LOW OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD BECOME VFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 0Z FOR KMCK AND 3Z FOR KGLD.
THE CLEARING TOMORROW EVENING IS REFLECTED IN GFS MOS GUIDANCE
AND SEEMS MOST PROBABLE CONSIDERING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE
DEPARTING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016-029-042.
CO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ079-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
923 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
EVENING. OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
LATEST HRRR...CONSSHORT AND NAM GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT HAS WIDESPREAD -10 TO -15...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS
-20...TEMPERATURES BY THE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THOUGHT THIS WAS A LITTLE EXTREME SO TEMPERED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
CONSSHORT AND THE LATEST NAM. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WATCHING WIND
CHILLS VERY CLOSELY AS WE COULD APPROACH TO BRIEFLY EXCEED WIND
CHILL WARNING CRITERIA IF THESE TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE WINTER STORM IS BEGINNING TO RELEASE ITS GRIP ON THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS EVENING. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS
WELL AS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL REDUCE
THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE.
DECIDED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE MILE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. ISSUED A
NOWCAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE STILL
MAY BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF VISIBILITIES AT TO JUST BELOW ONE
MILE.
IN OTHER NEWS...TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WENT AHEAD AS PLANNED WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ONLY
CHANGE WAS TO MAKE THE BEGINNING TIME AS 7 PM CST...6 PM MST. SOME
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SPECIFICALLY...KGLD WAS AT -15...KITR WAS AT -15 ...YUMA COLORADO
WAS AT -16...AND A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS WERE NEAR CRITERIA. THOSE
WOULD BE KMCK AT -13 AND KHLC AT -12. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
WATCH ON TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS WE MAY FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS WIND CHILLS 25 BELOW ZERO. LATEST
GUIDANCE AS OF 18Z CAME IN A LITTLE COLD SO REFLECTED THAT IN THE
GRIDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW LOOK QUITE COLD...HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
JUST ABOVE ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
SATELLITE AND RADAR RETURNS SHOW DECREASING TREND MATCHING MODEL
GUIDANCE. OBS STILL REPORTING LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY REPORTED BETWEEN 1/2SM TO 2SM. ACTUAL SNOW INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY.
THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF LIGHT SNOW
COMBINING WITH WIND/BLOWING SNOW.
LINGERING LIFT/MOISTURE COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING AS THE INITIAL MID LEVEL WAVE EXITS. WITH
FORCING/MOISTURE MUCH WEAKER/LESS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIMITED. WE MIGHT SEE ANOTHER HALF IN TO ONE INCH IN THE FAR
EAST THIS EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET...SO WHILE DRIFTING OR MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING VISIBILITIES OVERALL
SHOULD BE IMPROVING. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE
EXPIRATION OF THE ADVISORY THROUGH 03Z FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WHILE EXPIRING THE ADVISORY IN THE WEST WHEN THE TIME COMES.
THIS IS IF CONDITIONS ARE SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE EAST WHERE
WINDS MAY BE STRONGER. AT THIS POINT I AM PLANNING NO CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY...WITH EVERYTHING ON TRACK.
OTHER THAN BUMPING UP POPS SOME IN THE EVENING...I DID ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PASSES NORTH.
ANY ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAYBE A
DUSTING POSSIBLE (AT THE MOST).
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S
DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS...AND THE PLAN IS
TO WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT WSW IS EXPIRED TO AVOID CONFUSION
REGARDING THE WSW STATEMENTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUDY BUT DRY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY
STAY NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL STAY
CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW. WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY BRING A
LIGHT DUSTING OF AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW SNOW. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SYSTEM MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING TO 20
BELOW...BUT STILL EXPECTING THEM TO REACH THE 10 TO 15 BELOW
RANGE. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW RETURN WITH DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING...MORE WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IS NOT LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE JET
STREAMS ARE NO LONGER PHASED AND IT COMES OUT IN TWO PIECES. THE
FIRST ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS TOO FAR SOUTH BUT THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON SATURDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SNOWPACK...BUT MODELS INDICATE UP TO 40KTS IN THE 0-1KM LAYER
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH NEW SNOW ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES AND IF THE OLD SNOWPACK CAN
ICE OVER ON A DAY WITH SOME SUN. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW COMES ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN THE
NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG DEAL AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST...SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY TAPERED OFF AT KGLD AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AT KMCK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BEHIND THE
SNOWFALL...MIST HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SNOW PACK SO HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VISIBILITY AT KGLD TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. KMCK WILL START
OUT IFR WITH SNOWFALL AND BECOME MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
SNOWFALL ENDS AT 09Z. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS LAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW WITH VISIBILITY RETURNING TO VFR
IN THE MORNING AROUND 12Z. LOW OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD BECOME VFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 0Z FOR KMCK AND 3Z FOR KGLD.
THE CLEARING TOMORROW EVENING IS REFLECTED IN GFS MOS GUIDANCE
AND SEEMS MOST PROBABLE CONSIDERING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE
DEPARTING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
912 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...PRODUCING
A SPELL OF FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OS DATA...NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.
PREV DISC;
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT
AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE WARMER DUR TO THIS INSOLATING
FACTOR WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS TO ABOUT 10
ABOVE AT THE COAST.
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE STREAMERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS SWITCH
TO THE WEST...MOVING THE SNOW SHOWERS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
SHORE...BUT REMAINING WELL OFF THE COASTLINE. A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF ME/NH TOMORROW...WITH LOW CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE BEING HUNG UP
IN THE WNW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS...PUSHING 30 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTLINE WHERE BEST
DIABATIC WARMING TAKES PLACE.
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO ENTER THE NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS IN
THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SCATTERED FLURRIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF IMPULSES
WILL RACE EAST ACROSS THE CONUS BEFORE EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC
IN THE LATE SUNDAY - EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EVENTUAL
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE TREND OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN WEAKER AND LITTLE IF ANY PHASING OF ENERGY
WHICH SUPPORTS A RATHER BENIGN SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...IT`S SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET HERE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
SUN PM - MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS STILL NEAR 5 FEET ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...THE TREND IS DOWN AND WE WILL BE LOWERING THE
SCAS WITH THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
LONG TERM...
SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
410 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BASED ON CURRENT BANDING OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THIS FORMED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OVER THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS IN REGION OF GOOD FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. WILL HAVE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST FOR ALL
AREAS...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDED PRECIP.
BACK EDGE TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TO MAINE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. NORMALLY...PRECIPITATION WOULD SHUT OFF QUICK THAN THIS AS
DOWNSLOPING WOULD NORMALLY KICK IN WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF CAPE
COD THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NORTH...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE COASTLINE.
SNOW TOTALS...WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO OUR
EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE. POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ON RADAR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WILL MOST LIKELY CALL THE TOP AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 8-12 INCH
RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A COULD TOWNS WITH LOCALLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BAND OF SNOW EARLIER TODAY HELPED THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS PICK UP SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
LATEST PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO BRING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW
FOR PORTLAND MAINE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT
WE HAVE HAD A ONE FOOT SNOWSTORM...AND WE ONLY AVERAGE A ONE FOOT
SNOWSTORM ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. HERE ARE THE DATES FOR THIS
YEAR...
12/14-15/13...12.4 INCHES
1/1-2/14......11.9 INCHES (JUST MISSED!)
2/5/14........???? INCHES (MISSED AGAIN?)
OTHERWISE...LATEST HRRR HAS THE PRECIP ENDING AROUND 00Z IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND BY 20Z IN MAINE. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THERAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN IMPULSE WILL
RACE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BEFORE EXITING THE
MID ATLANTIC IN THE LATE SUNDAY - EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
ITS EVENTUAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THIS SYSTEM...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET HERE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
LONG TERM...
SUN PM - MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SCAS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...
FRI PM - SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-
008-012-018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ013-
014-019>022-024>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
JC/ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
248 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BACK EDGE TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TO MAINE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. NORMALLY...PRECIPITATION WOULD SHUT OFF QUICK THAN THIS AS
DOWNSLOPING WOULD NORMALLY KICK IN WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF CAPE
COD THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NORTH...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE COASTLINE.
SNOW TOTALS...WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO OUR
EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE. POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ON RADAR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WILL MOST LIKELY CALL THE TOP AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 8-12 INCH
RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A COULD TOWNS WITH LOCALLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BAND OF SNOW EARLIER TODAY HELPED THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS PICK UP SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
LATEST PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO BRING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW
FOR PORTLAND MAINE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT
WE HAVE HAD A ONE FOOT SNOWSTORM...AND WE ONLY AVERAGE A ONE FOOT
SNOWSTORM ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. HERE ARE THE DATES FOR THIS
YEAR...
12/14-15/13...12.4 INCHES
1/1-2/14......11.9 INCHES (JUST MISSED!)
2/5/14........???? INCHES (MISSED AGAIN?)
OTHERWISE...LATEST HRRR HAS THE PRECIP ENDING AROUND 00Z IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND BY 20Z IN MAINE. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THERAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN IMPULSE WILL
RACE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BEFORE EXITING THE
MID ATLANTIC IN THE LATE SUNDAY - EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
ITS EVENTUAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THIS SYSTEM...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET HERE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
LONG TERM...
SUN PM - MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SCAS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...
FRI PM - SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-
008-012-018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ013-
014-019>022-024>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
JC/ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
211 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BACK EDGE TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TO MAINE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. NORMALLY...PRECIPITATION WOULD SHUT OFF QUICK THAN THIS AS
DOWNSLOPING WOULD NORMALLY KICK IN WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF CAPE
COD THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NORTH...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE COASTLINE.
SNOW TOTALS...WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO OUR
EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE. POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ON RADAR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WILL MOST LIKELY CALL THE TOP AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 8-12 INCH
RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A COULD TOWNS WITH LOCALLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BAND OF SNOW EARLIER TODAY HELPED THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS PICK UP SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
LATEST PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO BRING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW
FOR PORTLAND MAINE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT
WE HAVE HAD A ONE FOOT SNOWSTORM...AND WE ONLY AVERAGE A ONE FOOT
SNOWSTORM ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. HERE ARE THE DATES FOR THIS
YEAR...
12/14-15/13...12.4 INCHES
1/1-2/14......11.9 INCHES (JUST MISSED!)
2/5/14........???? INCHES (MISSED AGAIN?)
OTHERWISE...LATEST HRRR HAS THE PRECIP ENDING AROUND 00Z IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND BY 20Z IN MAINE. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THERAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN IMPULSE WILL
RACE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BEFORE EXITING THE
MID ATLANTIC IN THE LATE SUNDAY - EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
ITS EVENTUAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THIS SYSTEM...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET HERE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
LONG TERM...
SUN PM - MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SCAS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...
FRI PM - SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-
008-018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ012>014-019>022-024>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
JC/ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
106 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE TODAY...AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE LOW TRACKS
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT...AND THE SNOW WINDS
DOWN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALSO...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO CROSS
NORTHERNMOST NEW YORK STATE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AS OF 18Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL RATES TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE NOW EXPECT 6 INCHES
OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IN NORTHERN COOS COUNTY...NORTHERN OXFORD AS
WELL AS NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY FROM THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE. THIS
NOW PLACES ALL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY.
LASTEST HRRR RUN SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL IN THIS REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 21Z.
LATEST PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO BRING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW
FOR PORTLAND MAINE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT
WE HAVE HAD A ONE FOOT SNOWSTORM...AND WE ONLY AVERAGE A ONE FOOT
SNOWSTORM ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. HERE ARE THE DATES FOR THIS YEAR...
12/14-15/13...12.4 INCHES
1/1-2/14......11.9 INCHES (JUST MISSED!)
2/5/14........??? INCHES
PREV DISC...SNOW HAS MOVED INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. AS THE SNOW BEGINS IT BECOMES QUITE INTENSE VERY QUICKLY.
MANY OBSERVATIONS RECORDED SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2
MILE WITHIN 20 MINUTES OF THE FIRST SNOW BEING OBSERVED. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BROAD
AREA OF SNOW... SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATION OF 0.07 LIQUID EQUIVALENT
IN ABOUT 40 MINUTES AT CONCORD. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE
WARM ADVECTION LIFTING MOVES EAST TODAY.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE AREA... BUT IT IS
FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN IN SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA BY 5-6 AM OR SO WITH SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD TO PORTLAND
BY 7-8 AM. ONCE SNOW BEGINS IT WILL BECOME HEAVY FAIRLY QUICKLY...
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR OR MORE LASTING THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AREA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MAINE. LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
ALTHOUGH SOME BANDING MAY CAUSE LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES...
THE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS SPREAD ACROSS A WIDE AREA
ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD... THOUGH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND 850 MB
LIFTING. SNOW RATIOS WILL VARY FROM 12-1 TO 20-1 ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW COMES TO AN END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SNOW MAY
LAST A BIT LONGER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED AND THE WARNING/ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE OPTED NOT TO DO THIS
YET AND WAIT FOR RADAR TRENDS TODAY BEFORE MAKING THIS CALL.
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S BY THE COAST AND UPPER
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TENDS TO HOLD ONTO THE +PNA CONFIGURATION...
ALTHOUGH IT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED... AS REX BLOCKING OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. ALL IN ALL... THIS WILL
LEAD TO A TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW... AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL.
ONLY ISSUE WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME... AS 500
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. 00Z GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO
TREND TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM... AS SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES DO NOT PHASE. HAVE HELD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD AS MODELS SUGGESTING INVERTED TROUGHING COULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN FIRST WAVE AND MAIN 500MB TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SNOW BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES IN SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY.
VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY FALL TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES DURING THE
MORNING AT PORTLAND AND PORTSMOUTH AND POTENTIALLY AT CONCORD...
AUGUSTA... AND ROCKLAND AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE WEST.
LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-
008-018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ012>014-019>022-024>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
953 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE TODAY...AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE LOW TRACKS
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT...AND THE SNOW WINDS
DOWN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALSO...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO CROSS
NORTHERNMOST NEW YORK STATE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AS OF 1445Z.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL RATES TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE NOW EXPECT 6
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IN NORTHERN COOS COUNTY...NORTHERN
OXFORD AS WELL AS NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY FROM THIS MESOSCALE
FEATURE. THIS NOW PLACES ALL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY.
LASTEST HRRR RUN SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL IN THIS REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 21Z.
LATEST PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO BRING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW
FOR PORTLAND MAINE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT
WE HAVE HAD A ONE FOOT SNOWSTORM...AND WE ONLY AVERAGE A ONE FOOT
SNOWSTORM ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. HERE ARE THE DATES FOR THIS YEAR...
12/14-15/13...12.4 INCHES
1/1-2/14......11.9 INCHES (JUST MISSED!)
2/5/14........12.0 INCHES TODAY???
PREV DISC...SNOW HAS MOVED INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. AS THE SNOW BEGINS IT BECOMES QUITE INTENSE VERY QUICKLY.
MANY OBSERVATIONS RECORDED SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2
MILE WITHIN 20 MINUTES OF THE FIRST SNOW BEING OBSERVED. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BROAD
AREA OF SNOW... SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATION OF 0.07 LIQUID EQUIVALENT
IN ABOUT 40 MINUTES AT CONCORD. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE
WARM ADVECTION LIFTING MOVES EAST TODAY.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE AREA... BUT IT IS
FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN IN SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA BY 5-6 AM OR SO WITH SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD TO PORTLAND
BY 7-8 AM. ONCE SNOW BEGINS IT WILL BECOME HEAVY FAIRLY QUICKLY...
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR OR MORE LASTING THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AREA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MAINE. LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
ALTHOUGH SOME BANDING MAY CAUSE LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES...
THE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS SPREAD ACROSS A WIDE AREA
ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD... THOUGH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND 850 MB
LIFTING. SNOW RATIOS WILL VARY FROM 12-1 TO 20-1 ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW COMES TO AN END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SNOW MAY
LAST A BIT LONGER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED AND THE WARNING/ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE OPTED NOT TO DO THIS
YET AND WAIT FOR RADAR TRENDS TODAY BEFORE MAKING THIS CALL.
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S BY THE COAST AND UPPER
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TENDS TO HOLD ONTO THE +PNA CONFIGURATION...
ALTHOUGH IT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED... AS REX BLOCKING OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. ALL IN ALL... THIS WILL
LEAD TO A TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW... AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL.
ONLY ISSUE WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME... AS 500
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. 00Z GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO
TREND TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM... AS SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES DO NOT PHASE. HAVE HELD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD AS MODELS SUGGESTING INVERTED TROUGHING COULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN FIRST WAVE AND MAIN 500MB TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SNOW BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES IN SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY.
VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY FALL TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES DURING THE
MORNING AT PORTLAND AND PORTSMOUTH AND POTENTIALLY AT CONCORD...
AUGUSTA... AND ROCKLAND AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE WEST.
LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-
008-018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ012>014-019>022-024>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1249 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH WARMER AIR BEING JUST A
TOUCH SLOWER MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THINK THIS MAY DELAY A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO SOUTH AND EAST OF
PITTSBURGH...BUT OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WERE ON TARGET AND EXPECT
THAT GENERAL PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE AS
FORECASTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
930PM UPDATE...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING...WITH BETWEEN
1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR THE NORM ACROSS MUSKINGUM COUNTY.
WHILE RATES THIS IMPRESSIVE GIVE PAUSE...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWS SIGNS OF BRIGHT BANDING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MEANING A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SAID CORRIDOR OF BRIGHT BANDING RUNS UP TOWARD
THE WHEELING AREA AS OF 930 PM...AND OBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF THE
CORRIDOR SUPPORT A MIXED PHASE EVENT ALREADY ONGOING GIVEN THE
MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL/UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION AT
THE MORGANTOWN ASOS SITE. THAT SAID...OTHER THAN TO NOMINALLY
INCREASE SNOW TOTALS AROUND ZANESVILLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THE NEWLY
ARRIVED 00Z NAM SUPPORTS THE CURRENT PROJECTION OF
ONSET/CHANGEOVER/P-TYPE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. NO
FURTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. FRIES
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SPRAWLING WINTER STORM WILL TAKE
AIM ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE
MOMENT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY OCCLUDING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS. A VERY WELL
DEVELOPED WARM CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLICING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...WITH A RAPIDLY EVOLVING DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL COME INTO PLAY FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 OR SO HOURS.
SO LET`S BREAK IT DOWN...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST TONGUE IS SET TO DRIVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EVIDENT IN ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN THE 295-305K LAYER WITH MIXING RATIOS LIKELY TO TOP 6
G/KG IN THE LIFTED LAYER BY MORNING. AS SUCH...WHILE PROFILES MAY
INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...RAPID WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP A STRONG WARM TONGUE ALOFT AND TRANSITION
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN BASICALLY
EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES IN OHIO...AS WELL AS THE AREAS ALMOST AS FAR NORTH AS I-80
WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO DO THIS...SO THEY WILL SEE HEAVIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH...REALLY ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO
OF SNOW IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGEOVERS START TO OCCUR. NAM AND
GFS 18Z SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SUPPORT FROM THE RAP SUGGEST THAT WARM
ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 12Z RUNS
FAVORED. GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...A SURFACE LOW TRACK
RIGHT OVER THE CWA...AS WELL AS A LOW LEVEL JET TOPPING 70
KTS...AND LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
RIDGES...RAPID TRANSITIONS DO SEEM LIKELY. HOWEVER...GIVE THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AFTER THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW WILL BE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY IN THE INTRA-
RIDGE AREAS OF FAYETTE/WESTMORELAND...AS WELL AS IN GARRETT
COUNTY. IN THESE AREAS...A HALF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN CERTAINLY
IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...A
SECONDARY CORRIDOR OF HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIKELY ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO STRADDLE JUST BELOW FREEZING
LONGER...THIS WOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY ZANESVILLE TO ARMSTRONG
COUNTY.
BECAUSE OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE WARM
TONGUE EVOLVES QUICKLY AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS INTENSE ON
THE NOSE OF SAID FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE DRY SLOT
EVOLVING SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ABUNDANT
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IN
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/RAIN WOULD NOT BE ALL THAT SHOCKING. THAT
SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER EARLY ON...THAT
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY HIGH FOR A PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. COMBINING THAT WITH A CURRENTLY FROZEN AND/OR SNOW
COVERED GROUND OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THE RATIO OF QPF
THAT TRANSLATES INTO ICE ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL...EVEN WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITATION RATES. FARTHER
NORTH...WITH A COLDER COLUMN...THIS FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE
FAVORED WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION.
A SECONDARY CONSEQUENCE OF THE RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE DRY SLOT
INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RAPID DRYING OF THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CUT OFF RAPID SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND LIKELY END PRECIPITATION
AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE IMMEDIATELY
POST FRONTAL DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
BEHIND. HOWEVER...BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD
ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN
INCREASE...SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SEEM LIKELY TO RETURN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS FOR THE
MOMENT...HOWEVER ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS WERE GENERALLY TRENDED
MORE HEAVILY TOWARD ICE THAN SNOW FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT THE VERY
FARTHEST NORTH COUNTIES IN THE AREA. IN PARTICULAR...GARRETT
COUNTY COULD BE VERY HARD HIT BY FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/MV/MD AS NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES. ALTHOUGH
LAKE ERIE WILL BE MOSTLY FROZEN...BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
TO SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AS SUBSIDENCE TAKE PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARD LATER THURSDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LACK OF CONTINUITY DECREED USE OF AN ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM PD...HENCE THE PRUDENCE OF TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE. POPS WERE
THUS LTD TO THE CHC CATEGORY...BUT GENLY TRENDED UPWARD FOR EARLY
NXT WEEK GIVEN INDICATIONS OF TROUGH PASSAGE. TEMPS WERE TRENDED
COLDER FOR THE SAME PD...ALTHOUGH THE COLDER ECMWF MOS WAS
REFERENCED AS OPPOSED TO THE NR ZERO WPC NMBRS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WL CONT TO SPREAD IFR...LIFR WITH
SN...FZRA...PL...AND RA OVR UPR OH VALLEY TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MRNG. IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED BY AFTN...BUT MVFR STRATOCU ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVE AS COLD ADVCTN ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING LOW.
.OUTLOOK..../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A SERIES OF
WEEKEND DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ058-059-068-069.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ068-069.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ013-
014-020>023-029-073-074-076.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ029-031-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ031-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ001>003.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ002>004-012-021>023-
041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ004-023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1241 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
WITH A STEADY N WIND E OF BLDG HI PRES IN THE PLAINS DRAWING SOME LO
CLDS IN OFF LK SUP AND QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD ON THE NRN FLANK OF LO
PRES IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY IMPACTING INLAND LOCATIONS THRU MUCH OF
THE NGT...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
THROUGH KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH THIS DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING NORTH WITH THE LEADING EDGE REACHING INTO
NE WI AND SCNTRL UPPER MI. THIS ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS IT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING FM HIGH CENTERED OVER ALBERTA HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES OVER THE NW AND ERN FCST AREA DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN WNW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY REACHED INTO THE
TEENS WITH A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH GENERALLY
A NNW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE ASSOC SFC LOW WITH SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. EVEN WITH LIMITED HEAT/MOISTURE
FLUX ACROSS THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE...SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING LES
WILL REMAIN FROM MUNISING EASTWARD WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
AROUND AN INCH. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ACCUMULATING LES AS NOTED ON
NAM AND WRF-ARW SNDGS WILL BE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INVERSION HGTS LOWERING TO 3-4 KFT.
THE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM SYSTEM ADVANCING FM SOUTH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST
WITH READINGS GENERALLY FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. OVER THE WEST...TEMPS
COULD STILL FALL AROUND -5F.
WINDS BACKING AGAIN TO THE WNW WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING
LIGHT LES INTO ERN ALGER AND NRN LUCE COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE ICE
COVERAGE WEST SHOULD LIMIT LES THERE TO NO MORE THAN FLURRIES BY WED
AFTERNOON GIVEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HGTS.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST
TO LOWER/MID TEENS SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
VERY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE U.P. WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME VERY WEAK TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THANKS TO AN EQUALLY
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. SYSTEM MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS ICE COVERED THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY REMAINS STATIONARY.
THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FLOW
ALOFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE ABSENTS OF MOISTURE AND ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS EXPECTING LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ALSO DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FAR AS THE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS...THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE WRAPPED UP THAN THE
EC AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH AS IT SHIFTS THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EC/GEM ARE MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED AND A BIT SLOWER/
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NEVER REALLY DEVELOP A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
WEST TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT LES DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN U.P.
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ALOFT...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND E OF ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT
SAW/IWD THRU AT LEAST MID MRNG. SINCE THIS WIND DOES NOT PRESENT AS
FVRBL AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT CMX...THE NEAR SFC LYR IS RATHER DRY
PER UPSTREAM OBS/00Z INL RAOB...AND THERE IS EXTENSIVE ICE COVER
OVER LK SUP...VFR TO AT TIMES MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT CMX.
AS THE HI IN THE PLAINS DRIFTS SEWD THIS AFTN/EVNG...THE LLVL FLOW
WL BACK TOWARD THE W WITH TIME. THIS DOWNSLOPE WIND DIRECTION WL
CAUSE CONDITIONS AT SAW TO IMPROVE TO VFR. WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND AT
IWD AND CMX...HI END MVFR CIGS WL BE MORE LIKELY. EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LK SUP WL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HEAVIER SHSN/
PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CONTINUED ARCTIC COLD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WED
COINCIDING WITH A LOW MOVING THROUGH HUDSON BAY. AS A RESULT...A
BRIEF PERIODS OF WSW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WED
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND NCNTRL PORTION OF THE LAKE. WITH MUCH OF
THE LAKE ICE COVERED...THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CONCERN FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. A POCKET OF OPEN WATER NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND
MARAIS MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
OVER SE NODAK THAT EXTENDS SE ACROSS MN. MOST ATMO /WITH RESPECT TO
ICE/ COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THIS WAVE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD...THOUGH VERY LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SRN MN TODAY. HAVE HANDLED THIS SNOW
WITH A HEALTHY FLURRY MENTION AND HAVE SLOWLY MARCHED THIS MENTION
EAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DOES LIKEWISE.
THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS LED TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HOW LOW
APPARENT TEMPS WILL GET. DOES LOOK LIKE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT EAST OF THE MS RIVER...AND IT IS HERE THAT THE LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WERE TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM...WHICH HOLDS LOWS TONIGHT OVER
WRN WI ABOVE ZERO. THIS RESULTED IN A GOOD 5 DEGREES OF WARMING OF
LOWS FOR WRN WI TONIGHT. WE SAW THE IMPACTS OF THIS CLOUD COVER OVER
WRN WI LAST NIGHT...WHEN CLOUD COVER PUT THE SKIDS ON TEMP DROPS
FROM EAU CLAIRE THROUGH RUSK COUNTIES...WHERE LOWS OVERNIGHT
REMAINED ABOVE ZERO. THE 05.12 NAM SHOWED THIS HAPPENING AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT AS LOW AS THEY ARE
TODAY...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A DROP TO GET BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT.
AS FOR THE WIND CHILL HEADLINE...UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON ENDED UP
HOLDING THE APPARENT TEMPS ABOVE THE -25 THRESHOLD FOR WRN WI...BUT
WITH THE PRODUCT ALREADY OUT...FELT THE CONFUSION THAT WOULD ENSUE
WITH CANCELING IT BEFORE WE GET TONIGHT WAS NOT WORTH IT. NOT TO
MENTION...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICK TONIGHT...THEN LOWS
AND APPARENT TEMPS WOULD BE CLOSER TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD.
FOR THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY...BUT
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO FORECAST HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY ARE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FROM WHAT WE SAW FOR TODAY. SO
WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...A GOOD 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
TRULY ARCTIC AIR FROM NORTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHWARD WILL BE IN PLACE
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE BIG STORM TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS MISSED US WITH ITS PRECIP PUNCH...BUT IT
CERTAINLY AFFECTED OUR WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
INDIRECTLY. FIRST GLANCE AT VISIBLE SATELLITE TODAY REVEALS A SOLID
SNOW PACK NOW EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IT WAS JUST A FEW DAYS AGO THAT OUR SOUTH DAKOTA
AND IOWA NEIGHBORS HAD VAST AREAS OF BARE GROUND...WHICH THIS TIME
OF YEAR BECOMES INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT AS THE SUN ANGLE QUICKLY
RISES. THE LOW ALBEDO OF THE BARE GROUND ALLOWED FOR THE SUNS
RADIATION TO BE EFFICIENTLY ABSORBED. WHAT THAT MEANT FOR US WAS A
SW WIND WOULD WARM THINGS UP RAPIDLY AT THE SURFACE AS THE WARM AIR
OVER THE BARE GROUND WOULD BE CARRIED INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WE
DID OBSERVE THIS AT TIMES IN JANUARY...AND EQUAL OR TOPPED 32
DEGREES AT MSP 8 TIMES. NOW...THE ENTIRE MIDWEST IS COVERED IN
SNOW...HENCE THE ALBEDO IS MUCH HIGHER AND THE SUNS RADIATION WILL
BE EFFICIENTLY REFLECTED RATHER THAN ABSORBED. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM US UP LIKE THEY DID IN JANUARY UNTIL THAT
SNOW PACK ERODES...MEANING ITS JUST GOING TO BE HARDER YET TO GET
WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WE DO HAVE A POTENTIAL SNOWFALL EVENT ON THE HORIZON FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. YESTERDAY...THE GFS BEGAN INDICATING A CLOSED
SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE GFS HAS NOT BACKED DOWN FROM THIS AND OTHER MODELS HAVE
BEGUN SHIFTING TO A SOLUTION MORE SIMILAR OF THE GFS. THE NAM NOW
IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THIS EVENT IS LOOKING MORE VIGOROUS AT
THIS POINT. FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA REALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG THETA E ADVECTION...DECENT
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD ADIABATIC OMEGA. AT THIS
POINT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 285K THETA SURFACE ALSO LOOKS STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI. THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN MN...SO WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY AT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE METRO. MOISTURE WILL BE A QUESTION
BUT GIVEN THE FORCING...THE DRY AIR SHOULD BE OVERCOME FRIDAY NIGHT
BY THE FALLING SNOW.
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH FILLS IN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
THE MAIN CONCERN THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL AN INDICATION
THAT A BRIEF WARM UP WILL OCCUR NEXT WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BEYOND THAT
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
PAIR OF SHORTWAVES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE OVER SE NODAK AND NEAR
AXN HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT LIFT WITH OUR MOIST /WITH RESPECT TO
ICE/ ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE LOTS OF LIGHT SNOW. HAVE FOLLOWED OBS
TRENDS ALONG WITH RAP/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATIONS OF -SN TO
TIME -SN IN TAFS. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO CIG
HEIGHTS. MVFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO EXPAND RECENTLY AS THE RAP HAD
BEEN SHOWING...SO HAVE MVFR CIGS AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THEY WILL GO
AWAY. FOR NOW...STAYED CLOSE TO LAMP TIMING FOR GOING BACK TO VFR
CIGS...WHICH IS MORE OR LESS TIED TO WHEN THE -SN IS FORECAST TO
END AT A PARTICULAR SITE. CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST IS HIGH AND
ALSO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF
THE TAF...THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW LONG DO THE CIGS HANG
AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.
KMSP...MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW WILL BE WITH US THROUGH AT LEAST
22Z TO AS LATE AS 00Z...WITH FLURRIES LINGERING OUT TO AS LATE AS
3Z. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS AFTER FLURRIES END IN TERMS OF
CIGS WITH WHETHER MVFR CIGS GO AWAY WITH THE SNOW OR LINGER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR CONDS BY
THE TIME TRAFFIC RAMPS UP THU MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SN POSSIBLE. WINDS W AT 5KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>067-073>077-082>085-
091>093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ053-060>063-068>070-078.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE OCCLUDED REMNANTS OF THE
STORM WERE EVIDENT BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MN/WI...WITH
THE DEEPER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT LOCATED
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS BREAKING ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS
RIDGE LED TO A 1053MB SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING ALONG ALBERTA.
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS RELATIVELY NEUTRAL
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AS H850 TEMPS OF -20C WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -35F THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...AND
AS A RESULT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THOUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THE QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THESE PARTS THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ACCOMPANY
SOUTHEASTWARD MIGRATING SURFACE RIDGES. THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK TO
THE SOUTH WILL ALSO EASE WITH TIME AS THESE RIDGES BUILD DEEPER
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO WILL ENSURE A VERY COLD FIRST HALF OF
FEBRUARY.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WITHIN THE GENERAL TRANQUIL PERIOD COMES LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE
SURFACE RIDGES...SO MOISTURE WILL BE A CONCERN. THE UPPER DYNAMICS
APPEAR IMPRESSIVE THOUGH WITH A SHARPENING TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ON
THE GFS. THE EC...GEM...AND NAM ARE A BIT WEAKER ALOFT...AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION. HOWEVER...EC AND GEM HAVE BEGUN
TO DISPLAY SOME QPF DESPITE NO DEFINED SURFACE LOW. THIS IS AN
IMPROVEMENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY
AGREEABLE...ALTHOUGH THE SPACIAL SPREAD IS A BIT HIGH. THEREFORE...
THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS SOME MERIT AND FELT THE NEED TO INCREASE
POPS WHILE SHIFTING THEM NORTH A BIT TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE ISSUES...BUT THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE A WAY OF SNEAKING UP ON FORECASTERS SO IT WILL BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEK
AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS CRASH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE SYSTEMS
APPEAR WEAK BUT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MILDER PATTERN IN A
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
PAIR OF SHORTWAVES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE OVER SE NODAK AND NEAR
AXN HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT LIFT WITH OUR MOIST /WITH RESPECT TO
ICE/ ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE LOTS OF LIGHT SNOW. HAVE FOLLOWED OBS
TRENDS ALONG WITH RAP/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATIONS OF -SN TO
TIME -SN IN TAFS. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO CIG
HEIGHTS. MVFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO EXPAND RECENTLY AS THE RAP HAD
BEEN SHOWING...SO HAVE MVFR CIGS AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THEY WILL GO
AWAY. FOR NOW...STAYED CLOSE TO LAMP TIMING FOR GOING BACK TO VFR
CIGS...WHICH IS MORE OR LESS TIED TO WHEN THE -SN IS FORECAST TO
END AT A PARTICULAR SITE. CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST IS HIGH AND
ALSO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF
THE TAF...THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW LONG DO THE CIGS HANG
AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.
KMSP...MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW WILL BE WITH US THROUGH AT LEAST
22Z TO AS LATE AS 00Z...WITH FLURRIES LINGERING OUT TO AS LATE AS
3Z. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS AFTER FLURRIES END IN TERMS OF
CIGS WITH WHETHER MVFR CIGS GO AWAY WITH THE SNOW OR LINGER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR CONDS BY
THE TIME TRAFFIC RAMPS UP THU MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SN POSSIBLE. WINDS W AT 5KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>067-073>077-082>085-
091>093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ053-060>063-068>070-078.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HIBBING HAS ALREADY REPORTED A
27 BELOW WINDCHILL AS OF 11PM...AND GRAND MARAIS HAS HAD A 28
BELOW. SO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR NOW. MUCH DEPENDS
ON THE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...AND THEY ARE MOVING VERY VERY SLOWLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FAIRLY WELL THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SOME
OVERCAST SKIES OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE STRATUS OVER CANADA IS
MAKING A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH...SO THE BORDERLANDS SHOULD WARM
BACK UP AGAIN HERE ONCE IT MOVES IN. WINDS HAVE REMAINED LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME NEAR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY VALUES ALREADY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO DROP WE SHOULD GET SOME WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 25
BELOW HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND UNTIL 10AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A MARGINAL
ADVISORY...BUT JUST ENOUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A MINOR UPDATE FOR
TEMPERATURE AND SKY TRENDS COMING SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AND NNW TO NW FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
RELATIVELY QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING CLOUD COVER...BUT I
LEANED ON THE GFS AND RAP13 WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUNNIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. I SUSPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND THE AMOUNT COULD AFFECT
THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ALSO...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SE FORECAST
AREA...AND THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING THESE CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD
COVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR PARTS OF
NE MINNESOTA...BUT SINCE I AM NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CLOUD
COVER...I HELD OFF ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT REEVALUATE.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
IN IRON COUNTY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MORE
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. I EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE
WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL BECOME WESTERLY TOMORROW...ENDING THE
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK COLD AND RELATIVELY QUIET.
AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NOT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE NORTHLAND.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. A FEW OTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT TIMES AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS
POINT.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES...THEY ALSO APPEAR LOW FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF ICE...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME OPEN
AREAS. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SHORE IF MORE OF
THE LAKE OPENS UP DUE TO STRONGER WINDS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY
REMAIN FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
CLOUDS REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WITH A LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...EXTENDING INTO THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE IS ALSO
PRODUCINE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE...WHICH ARE AFFECTING KHYR SO FAR. OTHER LOCATIONS
ARE CURRENTLY VFR. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EAST SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO KINL HERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AND ALSO TO KHIB BY 16Z AND KDLH BY 17Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT FASTER MOVEMENT AND THIS WILL BE
MONITORED. WE SHOULD ALSO GET SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME
BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO KBRD AND KHYR AS WELL. SOME CLEARING ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN MORE TO THE WEST AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -11 6 -14 7 / 0 0 10 10
INL -18 2 -19 5 / 0 0 10 20
BRD -12 5 -17 6 / 0 0 0 0
HYR -9 8 -14 6 / 0 0 0 0
ASX -5 9 -10 8 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-035-037.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1010 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FAIRLY WELL THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SOME
OVERCAST SKIES OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE STRATUS OVER CANADA IS
MAKING A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH...SO THE BORDERLANDS SHOULD WARM
BACK UP AGAIN HERE ONCE IT MOVES IN. WINDS HAVE REMAINED LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME NEAR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY VALUES ALREADY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO DROP WE SHOULD GET SOME WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 25
BELOW HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND UNTIL 10AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A MARGINAL
ADVISORY...BUT JUST ENOUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A MINOR UPDATE FOR
TEMPERATURE AND SKY TRENDS COMING SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AND NNW TO NW FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
RELATIVELY QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING CLOUD COVER...BUT I
LEANED ON THE GFS AND RAP13 WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUNNIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. I SUSPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND THE AMOUNT COULD AFFECT
THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ALSO...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SE FORECAST
AREA...AND THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING THESE CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD
COVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR PARTS OF
NE MINNESOTA...BUT SINCE I AM NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CLOUD
COVER...I HELD OFF ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT REEVALUATE.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
IN IRON COUNTY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MORE
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. I EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE
WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL BECOME WESTERLY TOMORROW...ENDING THE
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK COLD AND RELATIVELY QUIET.
AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NOT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE NORTHLAND.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. A FEW OTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT TIMES AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS
POINT.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES...THEY ALSO APPEAR LOW FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF ICE...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME OPEN
AREAS. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SHORE IF MORE OF
THE LAKE OPENS UP DUE TO STRONGER WINDS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY
REMAIN FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AFFECTING KINL...KHIB AND KDLH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOST OF
THE NIGHT. FACTORS FOR EITHER DECREASING OR INCREASING CLOUDS TOO
WEAK TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING LIKELY...THOUGH THERE ARE HOLES
IN THE CLOUD COVER AND THESE SHOULD LINGER. SO...HAVE MADE MAINLY
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY...BUT AT LEAST VFR. NEW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN THE SAME GENERAL
HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR HEIGHT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -11 6 -14 7 / 0 0 10 10
INL -18 2 -19 5 / 0 0 10 20
BRD -12 5 -17 6 / 0 0 0 0
HYR -9 8 -14 6 / 0 0 0 0
ASX -5 9 -10 8 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-035-037.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1113 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 915 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
Updated/raised pops for the overnight hours as upper level vort
slides east through forecast area. Best chances of snow will be
mainly along and north of Missouri River, exiting region after
12z. South of Missouri River will still see some light snow with
patchy freezing drizzle possible, with just a light glazing
expected in this area. As for additional snowfall, another one to
three inches is possible north of Missouri River with highest storm
totals from central MO northeast into west central IL. Lesser
amounts to the south.
Byrd
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
No changes will be made to going warnings/advisories with some
minor changes to snowfall amounts, mainly to account for incoming
reports. The snow spread into the eastern counties this afternoon
with some minor accumulations reported in Fayette county. Some
sleet was reported mixing in with the snow down in Fredericktown
around 1230 pm and more recently in Maeystown in Monroe county
Illinois. Still expect this mix to continue over southeast
Missouri into south central Illinois into mid evening based on
most recent RAP soundings.
To the north and west, moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues
across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois
where visibilities at the observation sites remain in the 1/4 to 1/2
mile range. Latest runs of the HRRR and RAP show that the
deformation zone will continue to produce accumulating snow over the
warning area of into late tonight before the deformation zone lifts
out of the area. Just to the south, snow has been falling since
late morning over parts of southeast and east central Missouri,
though pockets of dry air in the lower atmosphere has hampered it`s
eastward progress. Now dry air is moving in from the southwest
which will begin to cut down on snowfall rates. Have left freezing
drizzle in overnight over the southern half of the CWA overnight has
deep ascent moves out leaving some low level ascent in deep
moisture. Still do not expected there to be enough ice accretion to
include any mention at this point. Also left area of blowing and
drifting snow in the warning area late tonight where the winds will
pick of late tonight. System will lift out of the area early on
Wednesday. Have just a chance of snow over northeastern half of the
CWA on Wednesday morning.
Went on the cooler side of guidance tonight and tomorrow for
temperatures where the deeper snow cover will be.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
The upper flow will deamplify in the wake of the current storm
system with a more progressive flow featuring broad troffing
dominating through at least the end of the week. This will assist
the expansive 1040+ mb Arctic high building into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. The biggest issue during this time
frame is the temperatures. There is quite a range in the MOS with
much of the model 2m temperatures siding with the colder MAV.
Given the amount of fresh snow cover that will reside across the
CWA have sided towards the colder numbers even though ideal
radiational cooling conditions (i.e. light winds) won`t exist in
this time frame. The low ambient air temperatures and even modest
wind will result in dangerous bitterly cold wind chills of -15 to
-25 late Wednesday night-Thursday morning generally along and
north of I-70. Collaboration with surrounding offices resulted in
holding off on wind chill headlines, but these will ultimately be
needed and likely issued once the current storm exits. We will
continue to hammer the message of this bitter cold in the
remainder of our produce suite.
The Arctic high will shift quickly eastward on Thursday night-Friday
night due to the progressive flow. There will also be a good deal of
cloudiness within this flow that will create some havoc with
temperatures and lead to lower confidence in the mins on Thursday
night/Friday morning. We have been carrying some low pops on Thursday
night and I have kept some low/slight chance pops in the forecast
generally along and south of I-70. The NAM, local WRF, and SREF all
show some light QPF associated with a weak impulse in the flow aloft
and attendant weak WAA/lift, while the NAMX and other models dry up
any precipitation as it attempts to spread east from the
southern/central Plains.
The forecast for this weekend is still highly questionable with a
good deal of uncertainty. Model continuity and agreement has been
quite poor and the general pattern the models were showing yesterday
with an amplifying upper trof/low moving through the
southern/central Plains into the lower/mid MS valley region is no
longer present. The general solution today is less amplified overall
and shifted north, with any advertised upper low now over Iowa on
Saturday night. Our forecast represents a multi-model blend with
greater weighting towards the ECMWF and CMC GEM. This would suggest
potential for 2 waves of snow - the first would be a chance of snow
area-wide Friday night due to a lead progressive wave and attendant
WAA, and then another chance Saturday/Saturday night more focused
across the northern CWA associated with the more northern upper
trof/low. Yet another shortwave within the progressive flow could
bring a chance of snow late Monday night-Tuesday. One thing that we
have high confidence in for the extended forecast is that the cold
weather will persist through early next week with a continuation of
below average temperatures.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
Upper level disturbance now rotating across Kansas City will move
east overnight providing additional light snow and freezing
drizzle to the area, especially along and north of I-70. IFR
conditions will continue. North wind will become northwest by
morning with snow ending, ceiling lifting to 1500 ft and winds
becoming gusty.
Specifics for KSTL:
IFR conditions to continue overnight with light snow and freezing
drizzle. Snow should end by 15Z with ceiling lifting and winds
gusting out of the northwets.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City
MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-
Fayette IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
142 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING -SN ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WITH THE BACK EDGE
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF KCDR TO KHYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING TIMING/PLACEMENT RATHER WELL...AND PUSHES THE -SN OUT
OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME...WIND CHILL INDICES
HAVE PLUMMETED TO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE. EXPECT VALUES TO REMAIN AS
SUCH THRU MID MORNING UNTIL WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND CHILL ADV UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF
TEMP RECOVERY AND WILL ON THE WHOLE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ALSO GOOD
AGREEMENT ADDITIONAL SN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS PART OF NEXT WEEK. FRI AFTN...GFS/CMC/ECM ALL
POINT TO SN DEVELOPING IN KS ASSOC WITH MID LYR FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...THEN EXPANDING NWD INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. COLD
AND DRY THEN UNTIL MONDAY WHEN NEXT SN CHANCE COMES. GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 700-500MB QG FORCING..THIS WOULD PLACE THE SW/SRN CWA
AT HIGHEST RISK FOR SN ACCUM THRU AT LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE WITH STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH A FEW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 12-18KTS AND
HIGHER GUSTS 20 TO 25KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 6KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
140 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING -SN ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WITH THE BACK EDGE
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF KCDR TO KHYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING TIMING/PLACEMENT RATHER WELL...AND PUSHES THE -SN OUT
OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME...WIND CHILL INDICES
HAVE PLUMMETED TO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE. EXPECT VALUES TO REMAIN AS
SUCH THRU MID MORNING UNTIL WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND CHILL ADV UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF
TEMP RECOVERY AND WILL ON THE WHOLE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ALSO GOOD
AGREEMENT ADDITIONAL SN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS PART OF NEXT WEEK. FRI AFTN...GFS/CMC/ECM ALL
POINT TO SN DEVELOPING IN KS ASSOC WITH MID LYR FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...THEN EXPANDING NWD INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. COLD
AND DRY THEN UNTIL MONDAY WHEN NEXT SN CHANCE COMES. GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 700-500MB QG FORCING..THIS WOULD PLACE THE SW/SRN CWA
AT HIGHEST RISK FOR SN ACCUM THRU AT LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE WITH STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH A FEW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 12-18KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS 20 TO 25KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 6KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1144 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
THE WINTER STORM THAT LIKELY BROUGHT GENERALLY 2-6 INCHES OF WIND-
SWEPT SNOW TO THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (HIGHEST SOUTH AND
EAST...LOWEST NORTH AND WEST) IS MAKING A STEADY DEPARTURE EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES TO TAKE
CENTER STAGE THESE NEXT FEW MORNINGS/NIGHTS. IN TERMS OF ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES THESE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ARE LOOKING LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN IN 3-4 YEARS...SEE
SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR EVIDENCE OF THIS PER GRAND ISLAND
DATA.
STARTING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED LINE OF
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES QUICKLY VACATING THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS SNOW HAS ENDED/MOVED OUT...WINDS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ON THE DECLINE FROM WEST-TO-EAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 111Z/5AM NOW RANGING FROM GENERALLY ONLY 10-15 MPH IN WESTERN
COUNTIES...TO 15-20 MPH/HIGHER GUSTS IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIMITED/MINOR...NEAR-GROUND BLOWING SNOW COULD STILL LINGER
THIS MORNING...THE VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS HAVE
ENDED...AND THUS EARLIER LET GO OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY/WARNING. HOWEVER...A CWA-WIDE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 17Z/11 AM TO COVER A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF -15 TO NEAR -20 VALUES. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE AREA ARE NOT
TECHNICALLY MEETING LOCAL CWA CRITERIA OF -20...MOST PLACES ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT NEIGHBORING
KS OFFICES UTILIZE A -15 CRITERIA. 11Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH PRESSURE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA
CURRENTLY AROUND 1038 MILLIBARS...BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 1051MB
IN CENTRAL MT. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CONFIRMS THAT THE
PRIMARY DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ZIPPED
WELL-EASTWARD TO THE IL/IN BORDER AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
ZERO AND -5 DEGREES...AND MAYBE COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS AS
WIDESPREAD CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS...OTHER THAN THE OBVIOUS WIND CHILL
CONCERNS YET THIS MORNING...THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
ACTUALLY TURNING OUT TO BE SKY COVER. AS IS SOMETIMES THE
CASE...EARLIER MODEL/GUIDANCE RUNS WERE APPARENTLY WAY TOO EAGER
TO HOLD ONTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TODAY...BUT A GLANCE AT
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS SUCH AS
FROM THE HRRR ARE NOW STRONGLY-SUGGESTIVE THAT THERE WILL BE QUITE
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN EARLIER-EXPECTED...CERTAINLY NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY DESPITE SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. BOTTOM
LINE...SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL UPDATES TO SKY COVER GRIDS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUN...IT WILL STILL BE A VERY COLD DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF -20C. ALTHOUGH AM A BIT LEARY
THAT FORECAST HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY PROVE TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO
COLD GIVEN THE SUN...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
HIGHS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA CLIMBING NO HIGHER THAN 6-8 DEGREES.
AS A WHOLE...SUSTAINED NORTH BREEZES TODAY WILL AVERAGE SOMEWHERE
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH. EVEN AFTER THE WIND
CHILL HEADLINE EXPIRES...VERY COLD CHILL VALUES OF GENERALLY -5 TO
-12 WILL PERSIST EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS TODAY...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST.
TURNING TO TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PICTURE INVOLVES
CONTINUED...FAIRLY FLAT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST INTO TX...AND ALSO FOCUSED
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET TO THE EAST...IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HOWEVER...AM
EXPECTING ANY ASSOCIATED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO REMAIN AT A
COUNTY OR TWO WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ANY PRECIP MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL PROMOTE NEAR-CALM
TO LIGHT BREEZES ONLY UP TO AROUND 5 MPH BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.
OBVIOUSLY...IF SKIES WERE TO REMAIN CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY
IDEAL SETUP FOR A MAJOR TEMP CRASH GIVEN THE SNOW COVER.
HOWEVER...WITH MID CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE ON THE INCREASE...THINK
LOWS WILL PROBABLY FALL A BIT SHORT OF MAX-COLD POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. OVERALL...USED A GUIDANCE BLEND TO ONLY MAKE
MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE -6 TO -11
RANGE. AM A BIT CONCERNED THOUGH THAT LOWS MAY FALL A BIT FARTHER
THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THUS SUPPOSE SOME ISOLATED -15 READINGS ARE PROBABLY
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. NO
MATTER WHAT...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL NEED ISSUED TONIGHT...AS CURRENTLY HAVE CHILLS
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF -20 OR COLDER NORTHEAST OF A
LEXINGTON-HEBRON LINE. STRONGLY CONSIDERED ISSUING THIS WIND CHILL
HEADLINE ON THIS SHIFT...BUT GIVEN THAT ONE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
FOR THIS MORNING...AND THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING LOW TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS...WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFT TO
POTENTIALLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY AND WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
NO HUGE ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST AND WILL BE PRETTY MUCH A FORECAST
FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES.
WE WILL LIE WITHIN VERY PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL LOW-AMPLITUDE
FLOW...WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL NOT BE MOVING OUT
ANYTIME SOON AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE MUCH
OF OUR WEATHER.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL BRINGING A QUICK SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM. I
REDUCED ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO MERE FLURRIES AS
EACH OF THESE WAVES ARE VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE...AND FOCUSED MORE TO THE
SOUTH. A BIT MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL ARRIVE IN THE PLAINS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT PERHAPS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE
AREA. A FINGER OF THE UPPER JET STREAM MAY JUST MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HELP INDUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT OUR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE DRY...SO KEPT CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY.
BY MONDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS ADVERTISED AMONG ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL RUNS THAT SHOULD HIT THE ROCKIES WITH A POSITIVE TILT.
A SURFACE HIGH SHOULD HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME
RETURN FLOW...AND INCREASED MOISTURE...TO GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. ALSO...WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH WIND CHILL FOR NOT
ONLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. I GENERALLY USED
ENSEMBLE TRENDS FOR TEMPERATURES AND FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND INITIALIZED GRIDS AND PERFORMED MINOR VARIATIONS FROM THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT THE TERMINAL BY LATE EVENING AS THIS RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
OTHER THAN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER 06/06Z...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY. COULD SEE A FLURRY AT THE TERMINAL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING OR AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED
CIGS OR VSBYS NOT EXPECTED SO DID NOT HINT AT THIS IN CURRENT TAF.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE ARE LIKELY GETTING INTO A FEW OF THE COLDEST
DAYS/NIGHTS WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE IN TERMS OF ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE. HERE ARE A FEW TIDBITS ABOUT THE LAST TIME HIGHS/LOWS
WERE NEAR/BELOW OUR CURRENT FORECAST VALUES AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
DATA SITE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT:
- WEDNESDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE: 6 DEGREES
- THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 6 DEGREES
OR COLDER: FEB. 1, 2011 (6 DEGREES)
- THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN
5 DEGREES: JAN. 7, 2010 (3 DEGREES)
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURS MORNING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE: -9 DEGREES
- THE LAST TIME THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER
THAN -9 DEGREES: JAN. 23, 2011: (-10 DEGREES)
- THE LAST TIME THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER
THAN -15 DEGREES: JAN. 9, 2010: (-16 DEGREES)
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
622 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
THE WINTER STORM THAT LIKELY BROUGHT GENERALLY 2-6 INCHES OF WIND-
SWEPT SNOW TO THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (HIGHEST SOUTH AND
EAST...LOWEST NORTH AND WEST) IS MAKING A STEADY DEPARTURE EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES TO TAKE
CENTER STAGE THESE NEXT FEW MORNINGS/NIGHTS. IN TERMS OF ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES THESE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ARE LOOKING LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN IN 3-4 YEARS...SEE
SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR EVIDENCE OF THIS PER GRAND ISLAND
DATA.
STARTING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED LINE OF
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES QUICKLY VACATING THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS SNOW HAS ENDED/MOVED OUT...WINDS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ON THE DECLINE FROM WEST-TO-EAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 111Z/5AM NOW RANGING FROM GENERALLY ONLY 10-15 MPH IN WESTERN
COUNTIES...TO 15-20 MPH/HIGHER GUSTS IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIMITED/MINOR...NEAR-GROUND BLOWING SNOW COULD STILL LINGER
THIS MORNING...THE VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS HAVE
ENDED...AND THUS EARLIER LET GO OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY/WARNING. HOWEVER...A CWA-WIDE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 17Z/11 AM TO COVER A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF -15 TO NEAR -20 VALUES. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE AREA ARE NOT
TECHNICALLY MEETING LOCAL CWA CRITERIA OF -20...MOST PLACES ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT NEIGHBORING
KS OFFICES UTILIZE A -15 CRITERIA. 11Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH PRESSURE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA
CURRENTLY AROUND 1038 MILLIBARS...BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 1051MB
IN CENTRAL MT. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CONFIRMS THAT THE
PRIMARY DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ZIPPED
WELL-EASTWARD TO THE IL/IN BORDER AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
ZERO AND -5 DEGREES...AND MAYBE COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS AS
WIDESPREAD CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS...OTHER THAN THE OBVIOUS WIND CHILL
CONCERNS YET THIS MORNING...THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
ACTUALLY TURNING OUT TO BE SKY COVER. AS IS SOMETIMES THE
CASE...EARLIER MODEL/GUIDANCE RUNS WERE APPARENTLY WAY TOO EAGER
TO HOLD ONTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TODAY...BUT A GLANCE AT
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS SUCH AS
FROM THE HRRR ARE NOW STRONGLY-SUGGESTIVE THAT THERE WILL BE QUITE
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN EARLIER-EXPECTED...CERTAINLY NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY DESPITE SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. BOTTOM
LINE...SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL UPDATES TO SKY COVER GRIDS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUN...IT WILL STILL BE A VERY COLD DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF -20C. ALTHOUGH AM A BIT LEARY
THAT FORECAST HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY PROVE TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO
COLD GIVEN THE SUN...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
HIGHS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA CLIMBING NO HIGHER THAN 6-8 DEGREES.
AS A WHOLE...SUSTAINED NORTH BREEZES TODAY WILL AVERAGE SOMEWHERE
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH. EVEN AFTER THE WIND
CHILL HEADLINE EXPIRES...VERY COLD CHILL VALUES OF GENERALLY -5 TO
-12 WILL PERSIST EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS TODAY...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST.
TURNING TO TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PICTURE INVOLVES
CONTINUED...FAIRLY FLAT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST INTO TX...AND ALSO FOCUSED
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET TO THE EAST...IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HOWEVER...AM
EXPECTING ANY ASSOCIATED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO REMAIN AT A
COUNTY OR TWO WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ANY PRECIP MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL PROMOTE NEAR-CALM
TO LIGHT BREEZES ONLY UP TO AROUND 5 MPH BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.
OBVIOUSLY...IF SKIES WERE TO REMAIN CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY
IDEAL SETUP FOR A MAJOR TEMP CRASH GIVEN THE SNOW COVER.
HOWEVER...WITH MID CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE ON THE INCREASE...THINK
LOWS WILL PROBABLY FALL A BIT SHORT OF MAX-COLD POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. OVERALL...USED A GUIDANCE BLEND TO ONLY MAKE
MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE -6 TO -11
RANGE. AM A BIT CONCERNED THOUGH THAT LOWS MAY FALL A BIT FARTHER
THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THUS SUPPOSE SOME ISOLATED -15 READINGS ARE PROBABLY
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. NO
MATTER WHAT...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL NEED ISSUED TONIGHT...AS CURRENTLY HAVE CHILLS
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF -20 OR COLDER NORTHEAST OF A
LEXINGTON-HEBRON LINE. STRONGLY CONSIDERED ISSUING THIS WIND CHILL
HEADLINE ON THIS SHIFT...BUT GIVEN THAT ONE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
FOR THIS MORNING...AND THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING LOW TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS...WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFT TO
POTENTIALLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY AND WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
NO HUGE ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST AND WILL BE PRETTY MUCH A FORECAST
FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES.
WE WILL LIE WITHIN VERY PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL LOW-AMPLITUDE
FLOW...WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL NOT BE MOVING OUT
ANYTIME SOON AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE MUCH
OF OUR WEATHER.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL BRINGING A QUICK SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM. I
REDUCED ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO MERE FLURRIES AS
EACH OF THESE WAVES ARE VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE...AND FOCUSED MORE TO THE
SOUTH. A BIT MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL ARRIVE IN THE PLAINS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT PERHAPS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE
AREA. A FINGER OF THE UPPER JET STREAM MAY JUST MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HELP INDUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT OUR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE DRY...SO KEPT CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY.
BY MONDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS ADVERTISED AMONG ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL RUNS THAT SHOULD HIT THE ROCKIES WITH A POSITIVE TILT.
A SURFACE HIGH SHOULD HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME
RETURN FLOW...AND INCREASED MOISTURE...TO GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. ALSO...WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH WIND CHILL FOR NOT
ONLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. I GENERALLY USED
ENSEMBLE TRENDS FOR TEMPERATURES AND FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND INITIALIZED GRIDS AND PERFORMED MINOR VARIATIONS FROM THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE 6 HOURS AGO...CONFIDENCE IN
PREVAILING VFR CEILING HAS RISEN CONSIDERABLY...AS SEVERAL EARLIER
MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE APPARENTLY DID A RATHER POOR JOB HOLDING ONTO
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILING WELL INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS IN SOME CASES.
THAT BEING SAID...SUPPOSE A FEW LIMITED PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TODAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING A BRIEF
MVFR CEILING. HOWEVER...WITH THE EVIDENCE NOW LARGELY POINTING
TOWARD VFR CEILING AND IN FACT VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
WHATSOEVER...HAVE DITCHED ANY MENTION OF MVFR FROM THE LATEST
TAF. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL AVERAGE AROUND
15KT FROM THE NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS...WITH OVERNIGHT
BREEZES DECREASING TO AROUND 7KT OR LESS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE ARE LIKELY GETTING INTO A FEW OF THE COLDEST
DAYS/NIGHTS WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE IN TERMS OF ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE. HERE ARE A FEW TIDBITS ABOUT THE LAST TIME HIGHS/LOWS
WERE NEAR/BELOW OUR CURRENT FORECAST VALUES AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
DATA SITE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT:
- WEDNESDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE: 6 DEGREES
- THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 6 DEGREES
OR COLDER: FEB. 1, 2011 (6 DEGREES)
- THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN
5 DEGREES: JAN. 7, 2010 (3 DEGREES)
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURS MORNING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE: -9 DEGREES
- THE LAST TIME THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER
THAN -9 DEGREES: JAN. 23, 2011: (-10 DEGREES)
- THE LAST TIME THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER
THAN -15 DEGREES: JAN. 9, 2010: (-16 DEGREES)
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
THE WINTER STORM THAT LIKELY BROUGHT GENERALLY 2-6 INCHES OF WIND-
SWEPT SNOW TO THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (HIGHEST SOUTH AND
EAST...LOWEST NORTH AND WEST) IS MAKING A STEADY DEPARTURE EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES TO TAKE
CENTER STAGE THESE NEXT FEW MORNINGS/NIGHTS. IN TERMS OF ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES THESE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ARE LOOKING LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN IN 3-4 YEARS...SEE
SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR EVIDENCE OF THIS PER GRAND ISLAND
DATA.
STARTING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED LINE OF
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES QUICKLY VACATING THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS SNOW HAS ENDED/MOVED OUT...WINDS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ON THE DECLINE FROM WEST-TO-EAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 111Z/5AM NOW RANGING FROM GENERALLY ONLY 10-15 MPH IN WESTERN
COUNTIES...TO 15-20 MPH/HIGHER GUSTS IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIMITED/MINOR...NEAR-GROUND BLOWING SNOW COULD STILL LINGER
THIS MORNING...THE VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS HAVE
ENDED...AND THUS EARLIER LET GO OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY/WARNING. HOWEVER...A CWA-WIDE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 17Z/11 AM TO COVER A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF -15 TO NEAR -20 VALUES. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE AREA ARE NOT
TECHNICALLY MEETING LOCAL CWA CRITERIA OF -20...MOST PLACES ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT NEIGHBORING
KS OFFICES UTILIZE A -15 CRITERIA. 11Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH PRESSURE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA
CURRENTLY AROUND 1038 MILLIBARS...BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 1051MB
IN CENTRAL MT. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CONFIRMS THAT THE
PRIMARY DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ZIPPED
WELL-EASTWARD TO THE IL/IN BORDER AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
ZERO AND -5 DEGREES...AND MAYBE COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS AS
WIDESPREAD CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS...OTHER THAN THE OBVIOUS WIND CHILL
CONCERNS YET THIS MORNING...THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
ACTUALLY TURNING OUT TO BE SKY COVER. AS IS SOMETIMES THE
CASE...EARLIER MODEL/GUIDANCE RUNS WERE APPARENTLY WAY TOO EAGER
TO HOLD ONTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TODAY...BUT A GLANCE AT
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS SUCH AS
FROM THE HRRR ARE NOW STRONGLY-SUGGESTIVE THAT THERE WILL BE QUITE
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN EARLIER-EXPECTED...CERTAINLY NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY DESPITE SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. BOTTOM
LINE...SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL UPDATES TO SKY COVER GRIDS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUN...IT WILL STILL BE A VERY COLD DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF -20C. ALTHOUGH AM A BIT LEARY
THAT FORECAST HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY PROVE TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO
COLD GIVEN THE SUN...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
HIGHS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA CLIMBING NO HIGHER THAN 6-8 DEGREES.
AS A WHOLE...SUSTAINED NORTH BREEZES TODAY WILL AVERAGE SOMEWHERE
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH. EVEN AFTER THE WIND
CHILL HEADLINE EXPIRES...VERY COLD CHILL VALUES OF GENERALLY -5 TO
-12 WILL PERSIST EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS TODAY...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST.
TURNING TO TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PICTURE INVOLVES
CONTINUED...FAIRLY FLAT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST INTO TX...AND ALSO FOCUSED
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET TO THE EAST...IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HOWEVER...AM
EXPECTING ANY ASSOCIATED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO REMAIN AT A
COUNTY OR TWO WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ANY PRECIP MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL PROMOTE NEAR-CALM
TO LIGHT BREEZES ONLY UP TO AROUND 5 MPH BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.
OBVIOUSLY...IF SKIES WERE TO REMAIN CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY
IDEAL SETUP FOR A MAJOR TEMP CRASH GIVEN THE SNOW COVER.
HOWEVER...WITH MID CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE ON THE INCREASE...THINK
LOWS WILL PROBABLY FALL A BIT SHORT OF MAX-COLD POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. OVERALL...USED A GUIDANCE BLEND TO ONLY MAKE
MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE -6 TO -11
RANGE. AM A BIT CONCERNED THOUGH THAT LOWS MAY FALL A BIT FARTHER
THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THUS SUPPOSE SOME ISOLATED -15 READINGS ARE PROBABLY
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. NO
MATTER WHAT...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL NEED ISSUED TONIGHT...AS CURRENTLY HAVE CHILLS
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF -20 OR COLDER NORTHEAST OF A
LEXINGTON-HEBRON LINE. STRONGLY CONSIDERED ISSUING THIS WIND CHILL
HEADLINE ON THIS SHIFT...BUT GIVEN THAT ONE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
FOR THIS MORNING...AND THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING LOW TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS...WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFT TO
POTENTIALLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY AND WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
NO HUGE ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST AND WILL BE PRETTY MUCH A FORECAST
FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES.
WE WILL LIE WITHIN VERY PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL LOW-AMPLITUDE
FLOW...WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL NOT BE MOVING OUT
ANYTIME SOON AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE MUCH
OF OUR WEATHER.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL BRINGING A QUICK SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM. I
REDUCED ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO MERE FLURRIES AS
EACH OF THESE WAVES ARE VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE...AND FOCUSED MORE TO THE
SOUTH. A BIT MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL ARRIVE IN THE PLAINS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT PERHAPS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE
AREA. A FINGER OF THE UPPER JET STREAM MAY JUST MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HELP INDUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT OUR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE DRY...SO KEPT CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY.
BY MONDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS ADVERTISED AMONG ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL RUNS THAT SHOULD HIT THE ROCKIES WITH A POSITIVE TILT.
A SURFACE HIGH SHOULD HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME
RETURN FLOW...AND INCREASED MOISTURE...TO GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. ALSO...WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH WIND CHILL FOR NOT
ONLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. I GENERALLY USED
ENSEMBLE TRENDS FOR TEMPERATURES AND FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND INITIALIZED GRIDS AND PERFORMED MINOR VARIATIONS FROM THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING VISIBILITIES OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...THIS REMAINS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST REGARDING WHEN CEILING WILL CONSISTENTLY RETURN TO VFR
LEVELS. INITIALLY...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT FALLING SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR CATEGORY FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 4 HOURS...BEFORE THE ENDING
OF FALLING SNOW BRINGS VFR VISIBILITY BACK INTO PLAY BEFORE
SUNRISE. AS MENTIONED...CEILING TRENDS ARE A MUCH BIGGER QUESTION
MARK...AS SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE BRING BACK VFR MUCH SOONER THAN
OTHERS. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO PLAY CLOSER TOWARD
WHAT IS LIKELY THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF THINGS...AND MAINTAIN
PREVAILING HIGH-END MVFR THROUGH THE FIRST 16 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR COULD MATERIALIZE
WELL-BEFORE THAT TIME...SO PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING IS POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS EARLY
THIS MORNING DECREASING TO AROUND 15KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS...AND THEN TO UNDER 10KT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE ARE LIKELY GETTING INTO A FEW OF THE COLDEST
DAYS/NIGHTS WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE IN TERMS OF ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE. HERE ARE A FEW TIDBITS ABOUT THE LAST TIME HIGHS/LOWS
WERE NEAR/BELOW OUR CURRENT FORECAST VALUES AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
DATA SITE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT:
- WEDNESDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE: 6 DEGREES
- THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 6 DEGREES
OR COLDER: FEB. 1, 2011 (6 DEGREES)
- THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN
5 DEGREES: JAN. 7, 2010 (3 DEGREES)
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURS MORNING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE: -9 DEGREES
- THE LAST TIME THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER
THAN -9 DEGREES: JAN. 23, 2011: (-10 DEGREES)
- THE LAST TIME THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER
THAN -15 DEGREES: JAN. 9, 2010: (-16 DEGREES)
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING -SN ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WITH THE BACK EDGE
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF KCDR TO KHYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING TIMING/PLACEMENT RATHER WELL...AND PUSHES THE -SN OUT
OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME...WIND CHILL INDICES
HAVE PLUMMETED TO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE. EXPECT VALUES TO REMAIN AS
SUCH THRU MID MORNING UNTIL WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND CHILL ADV UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF
TEMP RECOVERY AND WILL ON THE WHOLE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ALSO GOOD
AGREEMENT ADDITIONAL SN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS PART OF NEXT WEEK. FRI AFTN...GFS/CMC/ECM ALL
POINT TO SN DEVELOPING IN KS ASSOC WITH MID LYR FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...THEN EXPANDING NWD INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. COLD
AND DRY THEN UNTIL MONDAY WHEN NEXT SN CHANCE COMES. GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 700-500MB QG FORCING..THIS WOULD PLACE THE SW/SRN CWA
AT HIGHEST RISK FOR SN ACCUM THRU AT LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE WITH STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT ALL 3
TAF SITES AND THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR VISBY IN BLOWING SNOW.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES DURING THE MORNING WE WILL SEE
THE BLOWING SNOW DECREASE AS WELL. MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT KOMA/KLNK
AND WILL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CIGS INCREASE TO
VFR...BUT BKN VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL 3 SITES BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME SCT AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING -SN ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WITH THE BACK EDGE
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF KCDR TO KHYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING TIMING/PLACEMENT RATHER WELL...AND PUSHES THE -SN OUT
OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME...WIND CHILL INDICES
HAVE PLUMMETED TO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE. EXPECT VALUES TO REMAIN AS
SUCH THRU MID MORNING UNTIL WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND CHILL ADV UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF
TEMP RECOVERY AND WILL ON THE WHOLE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ALSO GOOD
AGREEMENT ADDITIONAL SN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS PART OF NEXT WEEK. FRI AFTN...GFS/CMC/ECM ALL
POINT TO SN DEVELOPING IN KS ASSOC WITH MID LYR FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...THEN EXPANDING NWD INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. COLD
AND DRY THEN UNTIL MONDAY WHEN NEXT SN CHANCE COMES. GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 700-500MB QG FORCING..THIS WOULD PLACE THE SW/SRN CWA
AT HIGHEST RISK FOR SN ACCUM THRU AT LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE WITH STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS EVENING AND THAT TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE AS THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF. SOME CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO THE
KOFK AREA...BUT THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY. CLOUDS BELOW 3000 FEET
MAY SCATTER OUT AT KLNK AND KOMA LATE TONIGHT. BUT...THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN A LITTLE SLOWER
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE IN THE 2000 TO
3000 FOOT LAYER PREVAILING BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 21Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
241 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING -SN ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WITH THE BACK EDGE
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF KCDR TO KHYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING TIMING/PLACEMENT RATHER WELL...AND PUSHES THE -SN OUT
OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME...WIND CHILL INDICES
HAVE PLUMMETED TO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE. EXPECT VALUES TO REMAIN AS
SUCH THRU MID MORNING UNTIL WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND CHILL ADV UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF
TEMP RECOVERY AND WILL ON THE WHOLE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ALSO GOOD
AGREEMENT ADDITIONAL SN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS PART OF NEXT WEEK. FRI AFTN...GFS/CMC/ECM ALL
POINT TO SN DEVELOPING IN KS ASSOC WITH MID LYR FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...THEN EXPANDING NWD INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. COLD
AND DRY THEN UNTIL MONDAY WHEN NEXT SN CHANCE COMES. GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 700-500MB QG FORCING..THIS WOULD PLACE THE SW/SRN CWA
AT HIGHEST RISK FOR SN ACCUM THRU AT LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE WITH STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS EVENING AND THAT TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE AS THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF. SOME CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO THE
KOFK AREA...BUT THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY. CLOUDS BELOW 3000 FEET
MAY SCATTER OUT AT KLNK AND KOMA LATE TONIGHT. BUT...THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN A LITTLE SLOWER
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE IN THE 2000 TO
3000 FOOT LAYER PREVAILING BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 21Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065-066-078-088-089.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
229 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS AS OF 900 AM WAS TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD DATA AND
BLEND INTO LATEST RAP/LAMP GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPS
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO LEANED IN
THIS DIRECTION. MAINLY NOISE-LEVEL CHANGES HOWEVER AS FORECAST
PANNING OUT NICELY AT THIS POINT. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF STORM
IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL CRNT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8 INCHES
CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING
STRONG LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY
SLOT...WHICH SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE
NOTICED AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H
CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH
1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED RH/LIFT FROM S/W
ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN BAND. THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF PRECIP. THIS
IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z THIS
MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H
CIRCULATION. THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST
AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING
BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH
CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT IN STORM TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50 TO 0.75"
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM 2 TO
5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
WL QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES
DEVELOPING AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW
PACK WL RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER
VALLEYS. WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR
THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT
WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS
ACRS THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE PERIOD
ON SATURDAY WITH W TO SW FLOW POSSIBLY CREATING SOME LGT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...INTO THE SLV AND ADKS.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST SATURDAY
NGT...WITH AN UPPER LVL VORT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING CHC FOR SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HAVING FASTER TRACK...MOVES
THIS UPPER TROUGH EWD FASTER...DRYING THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
SUNDAY NGT.
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN COOL
NW FLOW. WEEKEND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO M20S WILL COOL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
TUESDAY NGT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPS. UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCES KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BRIEF BREAK IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITH A
RETURN OF SNOW WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL BRINGING IFR/LIFR VSBYS
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...ANY HEAVY BANDS
OF SNOW THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF VLIFR
CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS PRECIP SHIELD SLOWLY EXITS
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT KMSS/23Z...KSLK/00Z...CPV AND KRUT AT 02Z
AND KMPV AFTER 03Z. EXPECT PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 04Z
AND 09Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE N TO NE THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT MORE NNW
OVERNGT AND EVENTUALLY W-NW THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS
AND MVFR AT TIMES AT KSLK.
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR
REGION WITH CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
12Z MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1242 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS AS OF 900 AM WAS TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD DATA AND
BLEND INTO LATEST RAP/LAMP GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPS
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO LEANED IN
THIS DIRECTION. MAINLY NOISE-LEVEL CHANGES HOWEVER AS FORECAST
PANNING OUT NICELY AT THIS POINT. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF STORM
IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL CRNT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8 INCHES
CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING
STRONG LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY
SLOT...WHICH SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE
NOTICED AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H
CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH
1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED RH/LIFT FROM S/W
ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN BAND. THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF PRECIP. THIS
IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z THIS
MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H
CIRCULATION. THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST
AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING
BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH
CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT IN STORM TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50 TO 0.75"
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM 2 TO
5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
WL QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES
DEVELOPING AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW
PACK WL RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER
VALLEYS. WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR
THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT
WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS
ACRS THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BRIEF BREAK IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITH A
RETURN OF SNOW WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL BRINGING IFR/LIFR VSBYS
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...ANY HEAVY BANDS
OF SNOW THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF VLIFR
CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS PRECIP SHIELD SLOWLY EXITS
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT KMSS/23Z...KSLK/00Z...CPV AND KRUT AT 02Z
AND KMPV AFTER 03Z. EXPECT PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 04Z
AND 09Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE N TO NE THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT MORE NNW
OVERNGT AND EVENTUALLY W-NW THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS
AND MVFR AT TIMES AT KSLK.
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR
REGION WITH CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
12Z MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1006 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS
OBSERVED ON AREA RADARS...NOTE KBUF RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE...AND
SURFACE OBS LATE THIS MORNING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THIS WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK 15-19Z AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK 18-21Z. WHILE WE ONLY SAW 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM THIS MORNING...BETTER DYNAMICS AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR BETTER SNOW PRODUCTION WITHIN THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
CROSSING OUR REGION FROM LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 18:1 SHOULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL 5-8 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME RATES AS HIGH AS AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR
CENTERED AROUND NOONTIME.
AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM TRANSFERS TO A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH TOWARD
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW TO THE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...INLAND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY WHICH WILL HOLD ON LONGER INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE NIGHT UNDER MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...JUST BELOW ZERO IN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND IN THE LOW TEENS
JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM HUDSON BAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC...MAINTAINING A COLD WSW FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A GOOD BREEZE DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING A LITTLE WIND
CHILL AND BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. OTHERWISE FROM A SYNOPTIC
STANDPOINT IT WILL BE BENIGN WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP OUTSIDE OF
LAKE EFFECT AREAS. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MESOSCALE.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE LAKE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY. EXPECT JUST A FEW DISORGANIZED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY IN THE MORNING TO LIFT
TOWARDS WATERTOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS. COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -18C.
THIS WILL YIELD LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 7-8K FEET FOR
A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING LATER FRIDAY. THE FLOW
APPEARS WELL ALIGNED FROM THE WSW...AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS
FORECAST IN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE SUNY STONY BROOK WORKSTATION WRF SHOWS A WELL
DEVELOPED BAND FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SETUP...AND THIS BAND MAY
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN
FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WILL HOIST A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FROM LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUGGEST MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOULD FOCUS ON SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF LEWIS COUNTY...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OSWEGO COUNTY.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
OF COURSE LAKE ERIE IS LARGELY FROZEN...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MAY VERY WELL DEVELOP A FEW OPENINGS
IN THE LAKE ICE. IN ADDITION...INCREASING WSW FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME
FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE AT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE LAKE...WITH
DIFFERENCES IN FRICTION BETWEEN THE SMOOTH ICE COVERED LAKE AND
ROUGH LAND FORCING CONVERGENCE. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AT TIMES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH A LOW CHANCE POP TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT ANY OPENINGS IN
THE ICE COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THIS LATEST
BATCH OF COLD PEAKING ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE
MID TEENS IN MANY AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENED STATE BY THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 20S.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LIKELIHOOD OF A
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION DURING THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BACK OFF FROM
EARLIER AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS...NOW TAKING A RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE STRONGER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
WELL TO OUR EAST. THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIETY IN THE 00Z
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WITH A FEW STILL SUPPORTING A STRONGER
SOLUTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SNOW...BUT HOW SIGNIFICANT
THIS IS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
REGARDLESS OF LOW TRACK...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. THIS WILL BRING MORE COLD WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING VIS TO 1/4SM AT TIMES WITH SOME BLSN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 21Z BUT MAY REMAIN IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH IFR POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
A BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH OF SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBUF WSR-88D IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO AN EQUIPMENT
FAILURE EARLIER THIS EVENING. NEW PARTS ARE ON ORDER...HOWEVER THE
RADAR WILL REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL THESE PARTS ARRIVE AND
APPROPRIATE REPAIRS CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ005-
006-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ001>004-010-011-013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ012-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH
EQUIPMENT...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
927 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS AS OF 900 AM WAS TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD DATA AND
BLEND INTO LATEST RAP/LAMP GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPS
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO LEANED IN
THIS DIRECTION. MAINLY NOISE-LEVEL CHANGES HOWEVER AS FORECAST
PANNING OUT NICELY AT THIS POINT. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF STORM
IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL CRNT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8 INCHES
CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING
STRONG LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY
SLOT...WHICH SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE
NOTICED AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H
CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH
1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED RH/LIFT FROM S/W
ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN BAND. THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF PRECIP. THIS
IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z THIS
MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H
CIRCULATION. THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST
AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING
BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH
CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT IN STORM TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50 TO 0.75"
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM 2 TO
5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
WL QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES
DEVELOPING AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW
PACK WL RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER
VALLEYS. WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR
THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT
WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS
ACRS THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
1/2SM AND 1SM MUCH OF THE DAY WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT
TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
651 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS
MORNING...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 100% ENTIRE CWA AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS/DWPTS BASED ON CRNT OBS. CRNT SHOWS LIGHT SNOW ACRS OUR FA
WITH BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT WITH VIS BLW
1/2SM ATTM. EXPECT THESE BANDS TO MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ZNS THRU MIDDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL
MODERATE BANDS OF SNOW WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN. THESE WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL INTO THE EVENING HRS. OVERALL...FCST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY GOOD...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z MODEL DATA. SNOW
RATIOS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE ARE RUNNING NEAR 10 TO
1 HERE AT THE AIRPORT AS OF 5 AM WITH 0.8" OF SNOW TO 0.08" OF
WATER. THE COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACRS THE NORTHERN CPV IS
RESULTING IN FINER FLAKES...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE THRU THE DAY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF STORM
IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL CRNT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8 INCHES
CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING
STRONG LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY
SLOT...WHICH SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE
NOTICED AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H
CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH
1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED RH/LIFT FROM S/W
ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN BAND. THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF PRECIP. THIS
IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z THIS
MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H
CIRCULATION. THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST
AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING
BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH
CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT IN STORM TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50 TO 0.75"
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM 2 TO
5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
WL QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES
DEVELOPING AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW
PACK WL RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER
VALLEYS. WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR
THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT
WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS
ACRS THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
1/2SM AND 1SM MUCH OF THE DAY WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT
TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
615 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 100% ENTIRE CWA AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DWPTS BASED
ON CRNT OBS. CRNT SHOWS LIGHT SNOW ACRS OUR FA WITH BANDS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT WITH VIS BLW 1/2SM ATTM.
EXPECT THESE BANDS TO MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ZNS THRU
MIDDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL MODERATE
BANDS OF SNOW WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN. THESE WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
INTO THE EVENING HRS. OVERALL...FCST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY
GOOD...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z MODEL DATA. SNOW
RATIOS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE ARE RUNNING NEAR 10 TO
1 HERE AT THE AIRPORT AS OF 5 AM WITH 0.8" OF SNOW TO 0.08" OF
WATER. THE COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACRS THE NORTHERN CPV IS
RESULTING IN FINER FLAKES...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE THRU THE DAY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF STORM
IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL CRNT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8 INCHES
CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING STRONG
LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT...WHICH
SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE NOTICED AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO
COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH 1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA
LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED
RH/LIFT FROM S/W ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN
BAND. THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF
PRECIP. THIS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z
THIS MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H CIRCULATION.
THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN
TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND
EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM
WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT
IN STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50
TO 0.75" CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY
NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW WL
QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES DEVELOPING
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW PACK WL
RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER VALLEYS.
WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR THURS
INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT WITH A
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 10/11Z AT ALL TAF SITES...THEN SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE DOWN TO
LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR/IFR SHOULD START AROUND 15/16Z TODAY.
EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 1SM AFTER 15Z WITH
CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST
AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL
SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND DURATION OF STORM IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL
CRNT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8
INCHES CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING STRONG
LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT...WHICH
SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE NOTICED AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO
COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH 1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA
LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED
RH/LIFT FROM S/W ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN
BAND. THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF
PRECIP. THIS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z
THIS MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H CIRCULATION.
THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN
TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND
EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM
WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT
IN STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50
TO 0.75" CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY
NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW WL
QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES DEVELOPING
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW PACK WL
RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER VALLEYS.
WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR THURS
INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT WITH A
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 10/11Z AT ALL TAF SITES...THEN SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE DOWN TO
LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR/IFR SHOULD START AROUND 15/16Z TODAY.
EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 1SM AFTER 15Z WITH
CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST
AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL
SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1202 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS
AND ADJUST TIMING OF PRECIP ARRIVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM
AIR CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE MS VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LATEST TRENDS HAVE THIS LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND NOSE OF LLVL JET WL MAINLY IMPACT OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA THRU THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHTER SNOW
FURTHER NORTH ACRS NNY INTO N VT. EXPECT SNOW TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. LATEST RAP13
AND HRRR HAVE SNOW ARRIVING BTWN 07-09Z NNY AND BTWN 08Z-11Z
CPV/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT...AND INTO NORTHERN VT BY 12Z. EXPECTING
A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING RUSH DEPENDING UPON
LOCATION...WHICH IS COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST. OTHERWISE...LOWS
HAVE BEEN REACHED WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND OR NEAR STEADY TEMPS
EXPECTED AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ARRIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...A SOLID MODERATE SNOWFALL EVENT (BY
VERMONT/NRN NY STANDARDS THAT IS) THEN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST NEAR 40N LATITUDE. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVER GIVEN FAIRLY FAST CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. NONETHELESS...AMPLE MOISTURE...LIFT AND
A DEEPER THAN NORMAL SNOW GROWTH REGION ALL FAVOR A SOLID 12-16
HOUR EVENT WITH A 4-8 HOUR CORE OF STEADIER/HEAVIER SNOW FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST QG FORCING AND LOW
TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FIELDS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS (6-12 INCHES OR SO)
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FURTHER NORTH STILL A SOLID EVENT BUT TOTALS
WILL BE LESS THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTL
BORDER. ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY GIVEN LATEST QPF TRENDS IN THE MODELS...BUT
I DID OPT TO OMIT THE HEAVIER NAM/WRF QPF WHICH APPEARS SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND LACK OF CONCERTED CLOSED CENTER
AT 700 MB. CURRENT THINKING OFFERS A GENERAL 6-12 INCHES
CENTRAL/SOUTH...4-8 INCHES IN A STRIPE JUST NORTH OF THERE
INCLUDING THE KSLK/KBTV/KMVL/K1V4 REGION...AND A 2-5/3-6 INCH
ADVSY LEVEL EVENT FOR THE ST LAWRENCE AND FAR NRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. OF COURSE...SOME SUBTLE VARIABILITY IS ALWAYS INHERENT
IN PREDICTING EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THESE ARE MY BEST
ESTIMATES GIVEN THE CURRENT INFORMATION.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY EAST INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN ENDING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS SKIES GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS
LATE. SOME LIGHT ADDL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT OVERALL
IDEA WILL BE FOR A DRYING TREND AS LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY
EAST.
THEN A FAIRLY NICE AND QUIET MID-WINTER DAY ON TAP FOR OUR AREA
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION BUILDS GRADUALLY EASTWARD. STILL COULD SEE SOME
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE DAY...ESP NRN
NY/NRN MTNS WHERE THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER H5 TROUGH SAGGING
SOUTH FROM SRN CANADA MAY SPARK A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN HERE
AND THERE BY AFTERNOON. BEST SHOT OF SHSN APPEARS TO OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS HOWEVER AS MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
INTERACTS WITH MARGINALLY WARM +2C WATERS. HIGHS SEASONABLY COLD
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S FOR MOST SPOTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 10/11Z AT ALL TAF SITES...THEN SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE DOWN TO
LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR/IFR SHOULD START AROUND 15/16Z TODAY.
EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 1SM AFTER 15Z WITH
CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST
AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL
SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1202 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS
AND ADJUST TIMING OF PRECIP ARRIVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM
AIR CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE MS VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LATEST TRENDS HAVE THIS LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND NOSE OF LLVL JET WL MAINLY IMPACT OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA THRU THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHTER SNOW
FURTHER NORTH ACRS NNY INTO N VT. EXPECT SNOW TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. LATEST RAP13
AND HRRR HAVE SNOW ARRIVING BTWN 07-09Z NNY AND BTWN 08Z-11Z
CPV/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT...AND INTO NORTHERN VT BY 12Z. EXPECTING
A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING RUSH DEPENDING UPON
LOCATION...WHICH IS COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST. OTHERWISE...LOWS
HAVE BEEN REACHED WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND OR NEAR STEADY TEMPS
EXPECTED AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ARRIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...A SOLID MODERATE SNOWFALL EVENT (BY
VERMONT/NRN NY STANDARDS THAT IS) THEN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST NEAR 40N LATITUDE. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVER GIVEN FAIRLY FAST CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. NONETHELESS...AMPLE MOISTURE...LIFT AND
A DEEPER THAN NORMAL SNOW GROWTH REGION ALL FAVOR A SOLID 12-16
HOUR EVENT WITH A 4-8 HOUR CORE OF STEADIER/HEAVIER SNOW FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST QG FORCING AND LOW
TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FIELDS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS (6-12 INCHES OR SO)
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FURTHER NORTH STILL A SOLID EVENT BUT TOTALS
WILL BE LESS THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTL
BORDER. ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY GIVEN LATEST QPF TRENDS IN THE MODELS...BUT
I DID OPT TO OMIT THE HEAVIER NAM/WRF QPF WHICH APPEARS SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND LACK OF CONCERTED CLOSED CENTER
AT 700 MB. CURRENT THINKING OFFERS A GENERAL 6-12 INCHES
CENTRAL/SOUTH...4-8 INCHES IN A STRIPE JUST NORTH OF THERE
INCLUDING THE KSLK/KBTV/KMVL/K1V4 REGION...AND A 2-5/3-6 INCH
ADVSY LEVEL EVENT FOR THE ST LAWRENCE AND FAR NRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. OF COURSE...SOME SUBTLE VARIABILITY IS ALWAYS INHERENT
IN PREDICTING EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THESE ARE MY BEST
ESTIMATES GIVEN THE CURRENT INFORMATION.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY EAST INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN ENDING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS SKIES GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS
LATE. SOME LIGHT ADDL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT OVERALL
IDEA WILL BE FOR A DRYING TREND AS LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY
EAST.
THEN A FAIRLY NICE AND QUIET MID-WINTER DAY ON TAP FOR OUR AREA
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION BUILDS GRADUALLY EASTWARD. STILL COULD SEE SOME
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE DAY...ESP NRN
NY/NRN MTNS WHERE THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER H5 TROUGH SAGGING
SOUTH FROM SRN CANADA MAY SPARK A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN HERE
AND THERE BY AFTERNOON. BEST SHOT OF SHSN APPEARS TO OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS HOWEVER AS MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
INTERACTS WITH MARGINALLY WARM +2C WATERS. HIGHS SEASONABLY COLD
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S FOR MOST SPOTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL CONT TO FEATURE
FAST CONFLUENT FLW ACRS THE CONUS WITH A STRONG S/W TROF MOVING
FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WL FEATURE 1030MB
SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS IN THE FAST FLW ALOFT ALONG
WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LVL RH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MTN FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED. IF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP...WITH FRESH
SNOW PACK...A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT...A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM -10F COLDEST VALLEYS TO +15F WARMEST AREAS
FOR LOWS AND MAINLY TEENS TO L/M 20S FOR HIGHS. FOR LOWS WL USE
SUPERBLEND WHICH IS A NICE COMPROMISE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORT ROUNDING
TROF BASE. GFS SHOWS GOOD PHASING BTWN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO CAPTURE SFC LOW PRES AND KEEPS
SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR
OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLES
SHOWS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM GETTING SHEARED OUT IN THE
FAST FLW ALOFT...RESULTING IN WEAKER SFC LOW PRES PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS SOLUTION...WHICH IS
FAVORED BY WPC WOULD KEEP BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR REGION...WITH JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
5H TROF. WL LEAN TWD THIS SCENARIO ATTM...GIVEN TRENDS THIS
WINTER AND MENTION CHC POPS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. MODELS SHOULD
START CAPTURING SYSTEM BETTER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN CONUS AND IS BETTER SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR
DATA ACRS THE CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 10/11Z AT ALL TAF SITES...THEN SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE DOWN TO
LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR/IFR SHOULD START AROUND 15/16Z TODAY.
EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 1SM AFTER 15Z WITH
CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST
AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL
SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS/NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1154 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTEND A RIDGE EAST OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP TYPE AND
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE 00Z/05 NAM IS FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN THE 12Z RUN AND TAKES THE SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...TO JUST SOUTH OF PIT BY 15Z. THE RUC IS
HOLDING ONTO A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAT PULLS MORE WARM
AIR NORTH WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS YNG. REGIONAL RADARS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPANDING FROM CENTRAL OHIO NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES DEVELOP SO NUDGED
ACCUMULATIONS BACK UP IN THIS AREA. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS COULD ACTUALLY END UP IN THE SOUTHEAST IF
THE MIX DOES NOT OCCUR TOWARDS DAWN. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS TOWARDS
TOLEDO. NORTHERN AREA STILL EXPECTED TO SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LINGERS WITH FAVORABLE MID-
LEVEL DEFORMATION AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS SQUEAK OUT UP TO 4
INCHES IN THE SNOWBELT WHICH WILL PUSH ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE
FORECAST RANGE. THERE WILL BE MORE BREAKS IN THE SNOW DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHEN SNOW DIMINISHES.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...HERE IT COMES. THE NOW NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP STEAM AT THIS TIME AND MAKE A BEE
LINE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK
HAS BEEN WAVERING BACK AND FORTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH A FEW MILES
WITH SOME WHAT OF A GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE DIFFERENCE NOW IS HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ENTRAINMENT WILL TAKE PLACE AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
SNOW TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM APPROXIMATELY
EASTERN MARION COUNTY TO JUST SOUTH OF MANSFIELD INCLUDING
AKRON...CANTON...AND YOUNGSTOWN. THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY REDUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER...WE ALL AGREE THAT AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES DURING
THE NIGHT...WE WILL SEE SNOWFALL RATES OF BETWEEN 1 INCH AND ONE AND
ONE HALF INCH AN HOUR IN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND.
FURTHER NORTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED WE WILL LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW AND
THIS INCLUDES THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREA OVER TO THE CLEVELAND
AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THESE AREAS COULD SEE MORE SNOW
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING IF THE NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN LAKE
ERIE IS ENHANCED BY MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE LAKE. THERE ARE SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT CRACKS IN THE ICE THAT SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT FOR SOME
REVERSE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO
UP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHWEST AND
LAKE SHORE AND WARM TO AROUND 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVER NIGHT AS THEY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW THAT WILL CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING AND AT THIS TIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS IS WHEN THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THIS SHOULD ABSORB THE OHIO
VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MID DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SO FAR...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY
FLOW EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY SET UP A LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE
FETCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ALSO SHIFT THE FLOW TO MORE
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AS WARMER AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY MORNING WE COULD
SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN IN
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. ONCE LOW MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT LOWS AGAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A CHANCE OF SNOW ALREADY IN FOR SATURDAY.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHEN AND WHERE A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE EAST COAST. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT FOR SOME AREAS OF
SNOW. SO...WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW PRECIP CHANCES ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AS THE LOW TO
THE EAST SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
BE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA. SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE NW FLOW BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WIN OUT
ON TUESDAY AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TO THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOWS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AS IT GETS OVER TAKEN
BY THE DRY SLOT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPWARD
MOTION IS TOTALLY EAST. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ALOFT THAT SOME SLEET OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE AT KCAK AND KYNG WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EAST NORTHEAST
WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND SOME BLOWING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY. NON VFR
REDEVELOPING AGAIN ON SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NE FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THEN BECOME N AND EVENTUALLY NW AS
THIS HAPPENS. A RIDGE WILL SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR A
COUPLE DAYS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE THE
FLOW TO RETURN TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS
THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KEC/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1148 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOW TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TODAY WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE TREACHEROUS AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF INTERSTATE 81. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STORM
SYSTEM MAY PASS NEARBY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIXED BAG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS AT MIDDAY WILL
RACE QUICKLY TO THE NE AND TAPER TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OF
SLEET AND SNOW /OR EVEN A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN/ BETWEEN 17-19Z AS
A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA...LEAVING A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD OF JUST SHALLOW/WARMER LOW CLOUDS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME SRN MICHIGAN WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE
ENE AND OUR FAR NWRN ZONES WITH ANOTHER ONE-FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
ADDITIONAL LIGHT-MDT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST RUC AND HRRR INDICATES THAT ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE INVOF KBFD AND POINTS WEST...WHILE NOTHING MORE THAN AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NCENT
MTNS.
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES...PLENTY OF STRATO CU WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL QPF THIS AFTERNOON.
LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS..AROUND 30 FROM KJST TO KUNV AND
KIPT...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FURTHER TO THE SE ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHSN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW BRIEF
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
1044MB HIGH SHOVES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AND EXPANDS
INTO THE REGION VEERING THE WIND TO THE N TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DIP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT IN THE NW...AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT
A JET SPEED MAX WILL ROLL THROUGH THE WRLY FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY
AND MAKE CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE FAR W. THE FORCING MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE ABOUT 10F DURING THE DAY...BUT ALMOST NO ONE IN CENTRAL PA
WILL GET UP TO FZG ON THURSDAY AS 8H TEMPS INCH DOWNWARD THRU THE
DAY - DIPPING TO -16C IN THE NW AND -9C IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEM WEDGING INTO MONTANA AND BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY/WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EWD
ACRS THE OH VLY/NRN MID-ATL THURS-FRI AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A MAINLY
DRY BUT COLD WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH
A DOMINANT RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST...TO A FLATTER/WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH AN EVENTUAL PACIFIC INFLUENCE BY NEXT WEEK 11 FEB
2014. PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD RELOAD AN
INTRUSION OF ABNORMALLY COLD...CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A RELATIVELY COLD MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR
DAYS 3-7. CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST SPLIT-STREAM ENERGY PROGRESSING EWD
FROM THE PLAINS/MIDWEST MAY SUPPORT A BROAD EAST-WEST SWATH OF LGT
PCPN FROM IA/IL TO OH/PA SAT NGT WITHIN A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE...ON THE NRN EDGE OF LLVL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE MORE
INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THIS PERIOD IS A SFC LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVE UP ALONG/OFF THE EAST COAST
SUN/D6 AND MON D7...THEN EXIT NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
TUE D8. MDL DIAGNOSTICS SHOW THE 04/12Z GFS/GEFS ARE MUCH STRONGER
AND SLOWER THAN THE 12Z CMC/UKMET AND 12Z EC/ECENS...OWING TO A
SHARPER/NEGATIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH. THE 12Z NAEFS COULD BE A DECENT
COMPROMISE AT THIS STAGE. NEVERTHELESS..THE SCREAMING MESSAGE IS
THAT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN A POTENTIAL WEEKEND WINTER STORM DUE
TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LARGE MODEL SPREAD. THEREFORE...CONTINUED
THE TO BLEND THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH THE LATEST 12Z CONSENSUS GUID.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT MOST CENTRAL AND NRN PENN AIRFIELDS. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN CIGS AND VSBYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
BY LATE TONIGHT THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE MAINLY
VFR...WITH A TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR TAKING PLACE FROM KJST
NORTH TO KBFD BETWEEN 06Z-08Z THURSDAY.
AS THE STORM DEPARTS TO THE NE...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WIND WILL INCREASE STEADILY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT MIDDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...AND COULD GUST OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES /FIRST OVER THE
LAURELS AND NW MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
THIS EVENING...UNTIL AROUND 06Z THU.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...MVFR W AND N WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR TO VFR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
SUN...LIGHT SNOW WITH RESTRICTIONS POSS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 5...
HARRISBURG...... 8.5 INCHES IN 1907
WILLIAMSPORT.... 7.8 INCHES IN 1908
STATE COLLEGE... 6.5 INCHES IN 1908
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017>019-024>028-033>035-049>053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
844 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014
.AVIATION...
INTERESTING FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW. FOR THE
TAFS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST SKIES...WITH CEILINGS
HOVERING AROUND 030BKN/OVC. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AROUND 10KNOTS.
THE BIG QUESTIONS OCCUR TOMORROW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTH AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN OR A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS DOESN`T OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN
THE FORECAST...ROUGHLY AROUND 18Z. IN THE NORTH...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE METROPLEX AREA
TAFS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
FLURRIES AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
TAKING A PEEK AT THE INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE BONE DRY. HOWEVER...LIKE TODAY...THERE IS MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF LIFT. NEWEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A HINT AT ELEVATED
CAPE WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE MESOSCALE BANDS IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...HAVE YET TO SEE THE FULL
RESOLUTION SOUNDINGS SO AM NOT YET SURE IF THIS IS AN ACCURATE
INTERPRETATION OF THE AVAILABLE DATA.
LOCAL WRF OUTPUT SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE BANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MODEL ALSO PICKED UP ON THE
BANDING FEATURES THIS MORNING...BUT DID NOT PLACE THEM IN THE
RIGHT SPOT. SO...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A FEW THINGS.
FIRST...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER SHOT AT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. EXACTLY WHERE THE BANDS SET
UP IS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. SECOND...THE LOCAL WRF...THE 21Z
SREF...AND THE LATEST 00Z NAM ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT OUR CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH WHAT THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE GIVES US.
FOX
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014/
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY HAS MOVED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST
BUT THE NEXT ONE IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL RAPIDLY
MOVE EAST AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SYSTEM
VERY WELL...BUT THE BETTER PERFORMERS WERE THE NAM AND RAP AND
THEREFORE WILL BE LEANING IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TOMORROWS FORECAST IS VERY LOW GIVEN OUR
FORECAST OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIP IS NOT REALLY SUPPORTED IN
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT WE ARE WARY OF THE
STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM ALSO BEING UNDERESTIMATED.
ONCE AGAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONG BUT THE MAIN ISSUE IS
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
ACTUALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT HIGH MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL
SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION
AND BANDED SNOWFALL IN THE AREA OF THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR 500 TO
600MB OR NEAR 18-22 THOUSAND FEET. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ON AREA RADARS. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON JUST HOW DRY THE AIRMASS WILL BE IN A LAYER NEAR 700 TO 850MB
OR ABOUT 5-10 THOUSAND FEET. WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF
AND ONE SREF MEMBER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FALLING
SNOW WILL SUBLIMATE WHEN IT REACHES THIS DRY LAYER AND NOT REACH
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AM NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS JUST YET...AT
LEAST NOT UNTIL WE CAN SEE THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM THE EVENING
RAOBS AT MAF AND DRT. OBVIOUSLY THERE WAS A LOT MORE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN THE AREA THAN WAS FORECAST TODAY AND IT IS LIKELY
STILL HANGING AROUND. SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM INDICATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SNOW PRODUCING AREA
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL INTENSITY...BELIEVE MORE SATURATION
WILL OCCUR FROM TOP DOWN THAN MODELS INDICATE. THUS WILL FORECAST
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20
TOMORROW...WITH POPS FOR MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AT 20 PERCENT
AND ACCUMULATIONS AT JUST A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL BE BRINGING WARMER AIR AND RICH GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN A HURRY AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW SUBTLE LIFT OCCURRING NEAR 925MB
WHICH WOULD CORRESPOND TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE DAY
BREAK. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE BELOW FREEZING.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THIS OCCURS. MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK TO
WARM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD IN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH IF ANY. HOWEVER WHEN THE PRECIP STARTS IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL TRY TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SO IT MAY START AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN BUT SHOULD TRANSITION
TO REGULAR DRIZZLE OR RAIN DURING THE EVENT. AFTER A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF VERY COLD SUBFREEZING TEMPS...ROAD SURFACES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD STICK ON IMPACT. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION OF ICE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STILL THIS CAN BE A MAJOR TRAFFIC HAZARD
ESPECIALLY IF PEOPLE ARE NOT AWARE OF ICE ON ROADS. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO GET THE WORD OUT ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL TRAVEL ISSUES TOMORROW. THANKS TO WFO EWX/HGX/SHV
FOR THE COORDINATION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DOWN SLOPE WESTERLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER
ECMWF/GFS FORECASTS WITH THIS FRONT...AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE
SHALLOW AND WANT TO SPILL SOUTH DUE TO ITS HIGHER DENSITY.
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST WILL FEATURE INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE SUNDAY FRONT WILL SETTLE IN
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD DOME AND WE
SHOULD SEE CHANCES OF PRECIP STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASING INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OUTPUT
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TAME.
FURTHERMORE THE GFS/CANADIAN WOULD SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD WINTER MIX
EVENT FOR THE REGION...BUT AGAIN THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS. FOR
NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME WINTER PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THE
REGION THAT IS MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TO SEE WINTER PRECIP
AND WITH MODEL AGREEMENT LOW...IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP THE WINTER
MIX UP THERE AND SPREAD IT SOUTH SHOULD THE ECMWF COME IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 21 34 29 57 34 / 10 20 10 0 0
WACO, TX 23 35 29 64 38 / 20 20 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 21 33 25 53 33 / 10 20 20 0 0
DENTON, TX 19 33 26 56 30 / 10 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 21 33 26 55 31 / 10 20 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 22 34 30 57 37 / 10 20 10 0 0
TERRELL, TX 23 34 27 57 34 / 10 20 10 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 24 34 30 60 38 / 10 30 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 24 35 29 65 38 / 20 30 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 19 37 26 60 31 / 10 20 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ156>160-174-175.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ122-
135-146>148-161-162.
&&
$$
14/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
VERY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS COLD WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL SOMETIME FRIDAY...WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO. RUC ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
HAS CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED THAT THIS FEATURE IS STRONGER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE IMAGERY ITSELF WHICH SHOWS A COMPACT POTENT VORTEX DIGGING
ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA. AS IT MOVES INTO THE BIG BEND
REGION LATER TONIGHT...SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE FROM BOTH THE
TOP DOWN AND FROM LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION AS 850MB FLOW
VEERS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THE THERMAL PROFILE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
SO PRECIP TYPE IS REALLY NOT IN QUESTION THIS TIME AROUND.
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS INDICATES A DEEP SATURATED LAYER BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY PRESENT. AS FORCING INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT...AREAS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME BANDING OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY MENTIONED EARLIER AND
THIS HAS EVEN BEEN INDICATED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE 3KM
TTU WRF. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THE
COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATIOS OF GREATER THAN
10 TO 1. THIS ISNT TYPICAL FOR NORTH TEXAS AS WE USUALLY WIND UP
DEALING WITH HEAVY WET SNOW. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...WE THINK 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE METROPLEX. ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD END QUICKLY BY MIDDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AS TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
AS SOON AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...ANOTHER IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
FOR FRIDAY AND THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE THE DAY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 20S EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED BY THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ANALYSIS OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS POSSIBLY PLAYING OUT.
THE LEAST FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR A QUICK RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ALOFT...AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE SNOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DOWN LOW...IT IS LIKELY
TO BE IN THE FORM OF SUPER COOLED WATER DROPLETS...WHICH LEADS TO
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND
GROUND TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY COLD...ICE WOULD LIKELY RAPIDLY
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION
BUT WILL HAVE 20 POPS FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY...MODELS DIFFER WITH FRONTAL TIMING ON MONDAY WITH
THE ECMWF BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH AND GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND
SHOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MON/TUE TIMEFRAME.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 17 27 20 35 28 / 10 50 5 20 10
WACO, TX 20 34 22 38 29 / 10 20 5 20 10
PARIS, TX 19 27 22 37 27 / 10 50 5 20 10
DENTON, TX 17 25 17 35 26 / 10 70 5 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 16 27 18 34 26 / 10 50 5 20 10
DALLAS, TX 18 29 21 36 28 / 10 50 5 20 10
TERRELL, TX 20 30 21 37 28 / 10 30 5 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 21 35 25 38 30 / 10 20 5 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 22 35 22 39 31 / 10 10 5 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 16 26 18 35 25 / 20 70 5 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091>094-100>104-115>117-129-130.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1132 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO THE CLEAR OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT
DAL/GKY/ACT TO GO VFR IN AN HOUR OR SO. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN
OVER THE REGION. MVFR CIGS MAY SETTLE BACK IN OVER THE METROPLEX
THIS EVENING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING OCCURS AND THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MOIST. CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH...BUT MOS AND NAM SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATING THIS SO WILL BRING BKN025 IN AROUND 6Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING
LIFT/MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE METROPLEX. BEST LIFT AND
SNOWFALL WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX...BUT WILL INDICATE
6SM -SN FROM 15Z TO 18Z. WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING...WHATEVER
FALLS WILL NOT MELT AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
METROPLEX AIRPORTS.
TR.92
&&
.UPDATE...
A COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS DESPITE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP QUITE
NICELY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC HAS IT ANALYZED STRONGER
THAN ANY OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY
HAVE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT FOR TOMORROW. THESE CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014/
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED THE REGION AND WILL SURGE THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL GLIDE SOUTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
TONIGHT...AND OUR NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED
OVERNIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PLUNGING INTO THE TEENS...
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CISCO AND WEATHERFORD...TO
MCKINNEY AND BONHAM. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
DESPITE BEING STRONGLY SHEARED...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
STILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURE...GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN TIMING (AS WELL AS PLACEMENT). BUT THE AMOUNT OF
FORCING VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS...
AND THUS QPF OUTPUT RUNS THE GAMUT. REGARDLESS...THE LIFT IS MORE
THAN ADEQUATE TO SATURATE A DEEP LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...AND WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER TO OVERCOME...IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS OF AN IMPEDIMENT
THAN IS TYPICAL WITH SUCH A PATTERN. WITH SNOW-PRODUCTION PROCESSES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND WILL BE SNOW.
THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF THE AMOUNT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...BUT THE NEW 06Z RUN HAS DISPLACED ITS
PERFECT-PROG PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS...
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF (THOUGH THE LATTER HAS LESSER
AMOUNTS). WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE IMPULSE...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN AREAS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
RED RIVER TO NEAR 30 PERCENT BUT MAINTAINED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER ONE INCH. ADDED A BUFFER ZONE OF FLURRIES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH INCLUDES THE METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE FAR FROM WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF AMOUNTS ARE MORE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED FROM THEIR MINIMUM IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME LOW-
LYING LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS (DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER). A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH
LITTLE TIME FOR SUFFICIENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT...IT
WILL BE LIFTING A DRIER COLUMN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO RE-INTRODUCE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 28 17 28 19 35 / 0 10 10 5 10
WACO, TX 33 20 36 20 39 / 0 10 10 5 10
PARIS, TX 28 15 27 18 36 / 0 10 30 10 10
DENTON, TX 26 16 25 16 34 / 0 10 20 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 28 16 27 17 34 / 0 10 20 5 10
DALLAS, TX 28 17 29 20 37 / 0 10 10 5 10
TERRELL, TX 32 18 30 19 37 / 0 10 10 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 32 21 34 22 38 / 0 5 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 34 21 35 21 39 / 0 5 10 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 26 14 26 15 35 / 0 10 10 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091>094-100>104-115>117-129-130.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1002 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.UPDATE...
A COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS DESPITE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP QUITE
NICELY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC HAS IT ANALYZED STRONGER
THAN ANY OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY
HAVE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT FOR TOMORROW. THESE CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW ON THURSDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
MVFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE OVER ALL AREA AIRPORTS TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
INDICATED THAT CIGS SHOULD CLEAR THE DFW AREA BY 16Z...HOWEVER
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DID SHOW SOME RAGGED REDEVELOPMENT ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK...SO KEPT CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH
18Z FOR NOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 2
KFT...LIMITING THE IMPACT TO OPERATIONS TO SOME DEGREE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH ALL DAY TODAY AT 15 TO
20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE
MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF HIGH MVFR STRATUS BY THE MID-MORNING
HOURS OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE DFW AREA AS A STRONG...BUT
FAST MOVING...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH
MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
METROPLEX AS LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH CAUSES THE ATMOSPHERE TO
SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN. WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE KDFW
TAF FOR TOMORROW. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AT AREA
AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014/
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED THE REGION AND WILL SURGE THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL GLIDE SOUTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
TONIGHT...AND OUR NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED
OVERNIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PLUNGING INTO THE TEENS...
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CISCO AND WEATHERFORD...TO
MCKINNEY AND BONHAM. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
DESPITE BEING STRONGLY SHEARED...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
STILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURE...GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN TIMING (AS WELL AS PLACEMENT). BUT THE AMOUNT OF
FORCING VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS...
AND THUS QPF OUTPUT RUNS THE GAMUT. REGARDLESS...THE LIFT IS MORE
THAN ADEQUATE TO SATURATE A DEEP LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...AND WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER TO OVERCOME...IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS OF AN IMPEDIMENT
THAN IS TYPICAL WITH SUCH A PATTERN. WITH SNOW-PRODUCTION PROCESSES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND WILL BE SNOW.
THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF THE AMOUNT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...BUT THE NEW 06Z RUN HAS DISPLACED ITS
PERFECT-PROG PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS...
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF (THOUGH THE LATTER HAS LESSER
AMOUNTS). WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE IMPULSE...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN AREAS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
RED RIVER TO NEAR 30 PERCENT BUT MAINTAINED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER ONE INCH. ADDED A BUFFER ZONE OF FLURRIES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH INCLUDES THE METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE FAR FROM WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF AMOUNTS ARE MORE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED FROM THEIR MINIMUM IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME LOW-
LYING LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS (DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER). A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH
LITTLE TIME FOR SUFFICIENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT...IT
WILL BE LIFTING A DRIER COLUMN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO RE-INTRODUCE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 28 17 28 19 35 / 0 10 10 5 10
WACO, TX 33 20 36 20 39 / 0 10 10 5 10
PARIS, TX 28 15 27 18 36 / 0 10 30 10 10
DENTON, TX 26 16 25 16 34 / 0 10 20 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 28 16 27 17 34 / 0 10 20 5 10
DALLAS, TX 28 17 29 20 37 / 0 10 10 5 10
TERRELL, TX 32 18 30 19 37 / 0 10 10 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 32 21 34 22 38 / 0 5 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 34 21 35 21 39 / 0 5 10 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 26 14 26 15 35 / 0 10 10 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091>094-100>104-115>117-129-130.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1044 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FG HAS DVLPD ACROSS THE VCT TAF
SITE AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO ALI AND CRP OVERNIGHT. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY HINDER FOG DVLPMNT ACROSS ALI AND CRP IS THE
CIRRUS MOVG ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE ALSO IS NOT GOING AS LOW
FOR ALI AND CRP. THEREFORE DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW WITH THE VSBY
OR CIG FOR CRP...BUT KEPT THE LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALI BASED ON
BEING RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE CIRRUS DECK. CONDITIONS COULD
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FOR CRP AS WELL IF THE CIRRUS EXITS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO S TX WED MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOR VCT AROUND 11Z AND FOR CRP AND
ALI BY 13Z OR SO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OVER EASTERN LAND AREAS OF CWA. FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT...MAINLY DEALING WITH DEWPOINTS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
THE SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS FORECAST TO ADVECT THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY HAVE GENERALLY STAYED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP DEWPOINTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BY ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HRRR AND RUC BOTH SUGGEST THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD SOMEWHAT STEADY IN THIS REGION BEFORE THE
FRONT. DUE TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOR
CLEAR SKIES...HAVE EXPANDED THE FORECAST EXTENT OF FOG AND DENSE
FOG A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS LAGGING BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT BY A FEW HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 43 60 38 42 39 / 0 0 20 30 30
VICTORIA 39 56 33 41 35 / 0 0 10 30 20
LAREDO 44 66 38 43 36 / 0 0 20 20 10
ALICE 42 62 36 41 37 / 0 0 20 30 30
ROCKPORT 45 57 40 43 39 / 0 0 20 30 30
COTULLA 39 59 35 42 33 / 0 0 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 42 62 38 42 38 / 0 0 20 30 30
NAVY CORPUS 47 58 42 44 41 / 0 0 20 30 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
520 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WAS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WAS TRYING TO EDGE NORTH TO ALONG THE I-90.
DRY AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH WAS KEEPING THE SNOW FROM MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE NORTH.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY BECOMING ALL
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF. BITTERLY COLD AIR
PUSHES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION. THE OVERNIGHT LOW
FORECAST IS A BIT CHALLENGING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER OVER THESE AREAS
INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND MAY
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY TANKING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUDS LINGER. TEMPERATURES
OVER THESE AREA MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND EVENTUALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS
THE COLDER AIR BUILDS IN AND CLOUDS LIFT OFF TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY STARTING FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING STARTING AT 9 PM OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
BITTERLY COLD WINDS CHILLS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD DAY IS
IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
HOVERING RIGHT AROUND -20 C. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...PRODUCING WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO POSSIBLY
-30. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GEM AND GFS PRODUCE A SWATCH OF
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES...WITH
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A LAYER NEARLY 300
TO 350 MB DEEP. THE ECMWF OFFERS A SOLUTION THAT IS FURTHER SOUTH
AND WOULD TAKE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT IN THE
GUIDANCE BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED SNOW CHANCES INTO THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER COLD SHOT IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
-20 TO -22 C RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN ON
THE COLD SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO
OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. THE SAME STORY FOR
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS THE HIGHER RETURNS ARE MAKING SLOW STEADY
PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. THE 05.07Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SNOW THIS MORNING AND SUGGESTS BOTH
SITES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OCCURRING BEFORE 15Z.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND UP STREAM OBSERVATIONS...SHOWED KRST
COMING UP TO VFR AROUND 13Z AND KLSE AT 14Z. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR
CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY ARE REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT WITH THE CONTINUED PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTH...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONDITIONS ONCE
THE SNOW ENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL BACK
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. NOT EXPECTING THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS AND ANY CLEARING TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 06.06Z AND
SINCE THE FORECAST IS ALREADY VFR...DID NOT INCLUDE ANOTHER TIME
GROUP SO SHOW THIS OCCURRING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ079-088-096.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR IAZ011-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1050 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. SLOWED/REMOVED CHANCES OF
SNOW FOR TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. LIGHT SNOW NOW JUST GETTING
INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI. DRY AIR LIMITING NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. WENT
MORE WITH MESO MODELS TONIGHT WHICH KEEP AREA DRY. WINDS ALONG
LAKE SHORE STILL A BIT OFFSHORE...WITH MODELS SHOWING A BIT TOO
MUCH SHEAR IN LOW LEVELS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LOWER CEILINGS SEEN ALONG
LAKE MI THOUGH. LAKE CLOUDS ALSO GETTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI.
THIS WILL LIMIT/SLOW TEMP FALL THUS MADE FEW ADJUSTMENT THERE ALSO.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
COLD BUT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
THE LARGE POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE NERN PAC THAT HAS
BEEN ANCHORING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM FOR THE PAST 6-8
WEEKS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WERE SPLITTING ARND THE FEATURE...THEN MERGING BACK
TOGETHER OVER NOAM. THE TREND DURING THE FCST PERIOD WL BE FOR
THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW OVER NOAM TO GRADUALLY LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE AND
BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS THE MEAN TROF POSN SHIFTS INTO ERN
NOAM.
THIS PATTERN WL SUPPORT A FEW LGT PCPN EVENTS AT MOST...SO AMNTS
WL END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL AS
COLD CANADIAN AIR DOMINATES THE REGION. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME RECOVERY OF TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
DON/T REALLY SEE ANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABV
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION PRECIP IS PUSHING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE CYCLONE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT HAS
SLOWED ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT RUNS INTO DRY ARCTIC AIR. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE RESUMED THEIR NORTHWARD PUSH AND ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED
OUT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
A WEAK ARCTIC FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH IT NORTHEAST OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE COMMA HEAD WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO THE CLOUD COVER SINCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING NORTH WINDS
AND A STRONG INVERSION SHOULD CAUSE LAKE CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO
MOVE WELL INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL BRING LIGHT
QPF INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...MOST MESO MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH...SUGGESTING
INCREASING DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY. AM THINKING
THIS IS THE WAY TO GO SINCE MESO MODELS USUALLY DO A BETTER JOB
WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE DRY AIR. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE
MANITOWOC COUNTY WHERE NE FLOW MAY LEAD TO LAKE SNOW BANDS IMPACTING
THAT COUNTY. BUT THINK ICE COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW BANDS. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE...BUT AGAIN THINK ACCUMS WILL BE UNDER A HALF
INCH.
WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL BE IMPACTING THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
OF E-C WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD END BY
MID-MORNING AS WINDS TURN TOO NORTHERLY. THEN COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUNSHINE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETS STRETCHED OUT
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
SOME CONCERN THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WED NGT COULD SUPPORT
FLURRIES. BUT GIVEN THE DRY LAYER ARND 850 MB ON MOST OF THE
MODELS...WL HOLD OFF ADDING THOSE FOR NOW. THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN
WL BE DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS THREW A NEW WRINKLE INTO THE
MIX...WITH A MORE NLY TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV AS IT
PARTIALLY PHASES WITH THE NRN STREAM. AS A RESULT... THE GFS
GENERATED CONSIDERABLE PCPN ACRS THE AREA. BUT THAT DOES NOT HAVE
SUPPORT FM THE OTHER MODELS OR SEEM FIT WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...SO WL DISREGARD AS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW.
TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL...PROBABLY AVERAGING 10-18 F DEG BLO
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. ANY MORNINGS WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS
WILL GET QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS COULD ALSO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. BUT SUSPECT MOST PEOPLE PROBABLY WON/T PERCEIVE
IT AS BEING EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AFTER SOME OF THE WX WE HAD BACK IN
JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST CROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. LOOK
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT SHARP CUT-
OFF TO SNOW WITH MAIN AREA FALLING SOUTH OF TAF SITES AS SNOW BAND
WILL BE FIGHTING VERY DRY AIR ARCTIC AIR. HAVE BACKED OFF FURTHER
ON HOW FAR NORTH SNOW WILL MOVE AS STILL ONLY IN FAR SOUTHERN WI.
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING IN THE MORNING ON WED WITH COLD AIR SURGING
IN LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MI BRINGING SOME LOW
CIGS INTO LAKESHORE AND SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY ATTM. ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY FLURRIES THESE AREAS DUE TO
ICE ON LAKE. LOW CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE SNUCK IN TO NORTH
CENTRAL WI. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS INTO RHI FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........TE
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
503 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED
EAST INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO THE MINUS
TEENS TO MINUS 20S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS HAVE BECOME
DANGEROUSLY COLD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 3 AM OBS AT THE
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS RANGED FROM 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...SO WENT AHEAD
AND UPGRADED TO A WIND CHILL WARNING HERE AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
UNCHANGED. THE WIND CHILL WARNING ISSUED ON THE WYOMING SIDE WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON AS GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A SLOW
WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGH THE MORNING.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR...SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE ACROSS WYOMING THROUGH SUNRISE. PATCHY
FOG AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THIS BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS AS WELL. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY TO BARELY
MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVERHEAD IN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH MEAGER MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS
OBS. COULD SEE TANKING TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING THO AS SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ONCE THE
CURRENT SUITE ENDS THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AND WILL HELP PUSH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG FOR
THURSDAY IN THIS WAA PATTERN WITH WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING BREEZY
IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OUT WEST.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS THE
ARCTIC FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD AND A DEEPER FETCH OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DO SHOW SOME VARIABILITY
WITH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL ACCUMULATE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE MORE LIKELY TREND BEING CONTINUAL LIGHT SNOW
RATES THROUGH THIS TIME WITH FINER ICE CRYSTALS DUE TO THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. THEREFORE ACCUMULATIONS IN GENERAL DO NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM WITH SNOW CHANCES
JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY.
STARTING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
KEEP AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THIS BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA
AND BECOME QUITE STRONG LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. GFS SHOWING 700MB WINDS 45 TO 50KTS WITH THE 700MB CRAIG TO
CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT AROUND 90 METERS. COULD BE DEALING WITH A
HIGH WIND EVENT FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY LATE MORNING. GFS
WINDS INCREASE TO 60KTS 12Z SATURDAY. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED BLOWING
SNOW TO THE FORECAST WITH THESE STRONG WINDS.
STRONG JET REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THEY DO NOT LOOK LIKE
STRONG SYSTEMS...JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. PROBABLY GOING TO NEED SOME WINTER
HEADLINES FOR THEM. STRONGEST OF THE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
LATEST ECMWF HAS THIS LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND IS
MORE BULLISH ON QPF. IF THIS SOLUTION HLDS TRUE...WE WOULD
DEFINITELY NEED WINTER HEADLINES FOR THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 0455 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
GETTING SOME FOG DEVELOPING AROUND CHEYENNE THIS MORNING THAT WILL
MOST LIKELY DECREASE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HOURS
THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR FORECAST DID VERY WELL ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT...SO WENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE. IT BRINGS IFR CONDITIONS
BACK INTO THE AREA LATE MORNING AND BECOMES WIDESPREAD AS OUR NEXT
SNOW EVENT GETS GOING FOR KCYS...KLAR AND KRWL LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 500 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK DUE TO A PERSISTENT SNOW PACK
AND CHANCES FOR MORE SNOWFALL INTO THIS WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIR WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ101-102-104>111-
115>119.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1124 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO START SNOW IN SW CO NOW GIVEN 06Z METAR
REPORTS OF SNOW AT CORTEZ AND PAGOSA AND LOWERING CLOUDS AT
DURANGO AND NUCLA. ANTICIPATING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM CORTEZ TO
PAGOSA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
CROSSES AZ.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 831 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH SNOW
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. HAVE UPDATED ALL
ZONES TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...IN MOST
CASES INCREASING VALUES. LATEST HI-RES AND RAP MODELS ALL SUGGEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS BECOMING A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS WE MOVE INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL UTAH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
REALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRIDAY MORNING.
NEW ADVISORIES OUT FOR THE SAN JUANS AND ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
FROM GLENWOOD SPRINGS EAST STARTING TONIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DOWNGRADED WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES FOR THE GRAND MESA AND
NIXED THE WARNING FOR THE ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. VERY LITTLE
FORCING IS INVOLVED WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH HAS MADE THE FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT. WITH
WARM AIR OVERRUNNING COLD AIR POOL AT THE SFC ON FRIDAY...THE
CHANCE REMAINS FOR LIGHT SNOW AROUND MUCH OF THE REGION. KEPT LOW POPS
IN THE GRAND VALLEY AS THE WESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORABLE WITH
OVERRUNNING INVOLVED BUT WITHOUT ANY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AM
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT ON THE SCENARIO PANNING OUT DUE TO THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE PATTERN AND MODELS GREATLY
UNDER PERFORMING FOR TODAYS FORECAST. PWATS ARE INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FRIDAY (0.2 TO 0.3)...WHICH IS WHY
SNOW AMTS IN THE FORECAST HAVE DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
700 MB FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...WHICH WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
IN THE BIG PICTURE...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STREAM REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. MOISTURE WILL FLUCTUATE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AT TIMES AS THE POSITION OF THE JET SHIFTS FROM OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES PASS. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
GENERAL SOLUTION...BUT THE DETAILS HAVE BEEN FAR MORE PROBLEMATIC.
ON SAT A 120+KT UPPER JET CORE WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A DEEPER SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN INCREASED OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER
OTHER LIFTING MECHANISMS REMAIN WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
HINTED AT EARLY SAT...BUT THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AND UNIMPRESSIVE.
THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY...SO
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
THAT SAID...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHICS WILL
BECOME EXCELLENT. THEREFORE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY...AIDED BY SOME DIURNAL HEATING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT. ALSO
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FINALLY DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTERNOON AS
HEIGHTS LOWER. WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY SUNDAY AS THE JET
DROPS SOUTHWARD. BUT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DUE TO COOLING ALOFT...GOOD MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL
CONTINUE. BUT BEFORE ANY COOLING DEVELOPS SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS...EVEN IN THE FAR NORTH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PASS LATE MON/MON NIGHT...KEEPING SNOW LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS.
MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
DUE TO THE MOIST UNSETTLED FLOW. THE WARM AND UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE COLD VALLEYS TO APPROACH MORE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
EACH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL SNOW AND FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. KGJT/KMTJ/KDRO/KCNY SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
AFTER 19Z FRI. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KGJT/KCNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SATURDAY COZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SATURDAY COZ004-010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT
COZ018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MST SATURDAY
COZ008.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH SNOW
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. HAVE UPDATED ALL
ZONES TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...IN MOST
CASES INCREASING VALUES. LATEST HI-RES AND RAP MODELS ALL SUGGEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS BECOMING A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS WE MOVE INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL UTAH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
REALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRIDAY MORNING.
NEW ADVISORIES OUT FOR THE SAN JUANS AND ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
FROM GLENWOOD SPRINGS EAST STARTING TONIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DOWNGRADED WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES FOR THE GRAND MESA AND
NIXED THE WARNING FOR THE ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. VERY LITTLE
FORCING IS INVOLVED WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH HAS MADE THE FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT. WITH
WARM AIR OVERRUNNING COLD AIR POOL AT THE SFC ON FRIDAY...THE
CHANCE REMAINS FOR LIGHT SNOW AROUND MUCH OF THE REGION. KEPT LOW POPS
IN THE GRAND VALLEY AS THE WESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORABLE WITH
OVERRUNNING INVOLVED BUT WITHOUT ANY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AM
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT ON THE SCENARIO PANNING OUT DUE TO THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE PATTERN AND MODELS GREATLY
UNDER PERFORMING FOR TODAYS FORECAST. PWATS ARE INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FRIDAY (0.2 TO 0.3)...WHICH IS WHY
SNOW AMTS IN THE FORECAST HAVE DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
700 MB FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...WHICH WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
IN THE BIG PICTURE...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STREAM REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. MOISTURE WILL FLUCTUATE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AT TIMES AS THE POSITION OF THE JET SHIFTS FROM OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES PASS. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
GENERAL SOLUTION...BUT THE DETAILS HAVE BEEN FAR MORE PROBLEMATIC.
ON SAT A 120+KT UPPER JET CORE WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A DEEPER SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN INCREASED OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER
OTHER LIFTING MECHANISMS REMAIN WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
HINTED AT EARLY SAT...BUT THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AND UNIMPRESSIVE.
THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY...SO
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
THAT SAID...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHICS WILL
BECOME EXCELLENT. THEREFORE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY...AIDED BY SOME DIURNAL HEATING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT. ALSO
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FINALLY DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTERNOON AS
HEIGHTS LOWER. WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY SUNDAY AS THE JET
DROPS SOUTHWARD. BUT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DUE TO COOLING ALOFT...GOOD MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL
CONTINUE. BUT BEFORE ANY COOLING DEVELOPS SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS...EVEN IN THE FAR NORTH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PASS LATE MON/MON NIGHT...KEEPING SNOW LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS.
MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
DUE TO THE MOIST UNSETTLED FLOW. THE WARM AND UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE COLD VALLEYS TO APPROACH MORE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
EACH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL SNOW AND FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. KGJT/KMTJ/KDRO/KCNY SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
AFTER 19Z FRI. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KGJT/KCNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SATURDAY COZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SATURDAY COZ004-010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT
COZ018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MST SATURDAY
COZ008.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
331 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY COLD WEATHER...WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS
NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND IS DOING
LITTLE SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS IS
ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE LACK OF A
MULTI LAKE CONNECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 1.5 KM
WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INLAND EXTENT OF THE BAND. THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN IN THE 04Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FORECAST
PRODUCT...AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF...WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS BAND TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY /NORTH OF OLD FORGE/...SO WE HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO FOR THAT AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS...LOOKS TO DISRUPT THE FLOW AND DIMINISH THE
INTENSITY/EXTENT OF THE LAKE BAND BY THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY MORNING /MINS AROUND ZERO IN MANY AREAS/...TEMPS
WILL WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS /SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS AREA...AND
SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AROUND
10 KTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT
KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. MOST SITES
LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE
DRY OR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL. ITS TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
309 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY COLD WEATHER...WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS
NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND IS DOING
LITTLE SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS IS
ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE LACK OF A
MULTI LAKE CONNECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 1.5 KM
WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INLAND EXTENT OF THE BAND. THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN IN THE 04Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FORECAST
PRODUCT...AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF...WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS BAND TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY /NORTH OF OLD FORGE/...SO WE HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO FOR THAT AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS...LOOKS TO DISRUPT THE FLOW AND DIMINISH THE
INTENSITY/EXTENT OF THE LAKE BAND BY THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY MORNING /MINS AROUND ZERO IN MANY AREAS/...TEMPS
WILL WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS /SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS AREA...AND
SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AROUND
10 KTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT
KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. MOST SITES
LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SN.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE
DRY OR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
244 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY COLD WEATHER...WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS
NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND IS DOING
LITTLE SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS IS
ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE LACK OF A
MULTI LAKE CONNECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 1.5 KM
WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INLAND EXTENT OF THE BAND. THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN IN THE 04Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FORECAST
PRODUCT...AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF...WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS BAND TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
STILL...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY /NORTH OF OLD FORGE/...SO WE HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO FOR THAT AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS...LOOKS TO DISRUPT THE FLOW AND DIMINISH THE
INTENSITY/EXTENT OF THE LAKE BAND BY THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY MORNING /MINS AROUND ZERO IN MANY AREAS/...TEMPS
WILL WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS /SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS AREA...AND
SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AROUND
10 KTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT
KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. MOST SITES
LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SN.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1239 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.AVIATION...IFR WITH LOW CIGS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT
KAPF WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING
AT KAPF. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KPBI, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED VCSH THERE. CALM WINDS WILL BECOME EAST NEAR
5 KT THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014/
UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE OOZ SOUNDING DID INDICATE THAT THE
PWAT HAD DECREASED RELATIVE TO THE 12Z SOUNDING. THERE ARE LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE AND IS INDICATED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST...BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LAKE AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AND THEN THE ONLY REAL THREAT FOR IFR WILL BE AT KAPF.
THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ABOUT
DEVELOPING LOW CIGS OVER THE INTERIOR AND ADVECTING ACROSS THE
KAPF TERMINAL AFT 05Z AND NOT LIFTING UNTIL AROUND 15Z.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS, CANNOT DENY THIS COULD EASILY HAPPEN.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KTMB LATE IN THE
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR THAT LOCATION. THE SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR AND NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST THU FEB 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY.
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SREF IS SHOWING
NEAR 100 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT FROM SOUTH
OF NAPLES AND ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. DENSE SEA FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF WATERS...THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
THAT SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE FOG THERE. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THEN PUSH INTO THE
METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST. SO PUSHED THE PATCHY FOG CHANCE TO THE COAST AND AREAS OF
FOG INTO THE METRO AREAS FOR TONIGHT. DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY BACK NORTHWARD ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOME SLIGHT DRYING IS FORECAST TO TAKE
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY...BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES
BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH...AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. IT WILL BE WARM THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND HEAT INDICES NEARING 90.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AFFECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DROP 5-10 DEGREES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THE DRY AND
COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. IN TURN...MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH.
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...MAINLY FOR
REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS AT SITE APF AND INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCES AROUND PBI. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
INDICATE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SETTING UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHERN LOCATIONS FROM THE LAKE TO THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE PBI SITE...ANY EWD SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS COULD RESULT
IN REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND AROUND ANY ACTIVITY. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LAST NIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS
DUE FOG WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN...MAINLY FOR SITE APF AND
POSSIBLY TMB. THIS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS FRIDAY
BEFORE BURNING OFF OR LIFTING. 85/AG
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT
OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 83 68 83 / 10 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 80 69 83 / 10 30 40 20
MIAMI 71 83 69 84 / 10 30 30 20
NAPLES 66 81 66 81 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
924 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS SHOWING A DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SOLUTIONS INITIATED WELL WITH PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM AND TRACK IT ALONG THE WA/OR BORDER
OVERNIGHT. MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE IN QPF AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/SNOW AMOUNTS MOSTLY ON THE FRONT AND BACK
ENDS AS THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT IS A BIT DELAYED ACROSS SW IDAHO
ZONES AND WILL LIKELY END ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY
5AM MST FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE CONTINUING THROUGH MID-DAY IN
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. THAT SAID STILL LOOKING AT 1-2 INCHES
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 IN THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY BY NOON FRIDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES OR LONG
TERM ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. MVFR/IFR SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO END BY 12Z EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
IDAHO WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT DETERIORATING CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MORE IFR-MVFR SNOW. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END
SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SURFACE
WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ALOFT...WEST AROUND 40 KTS AT 10K FT
MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH SATURDAY. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORIES FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA UP TO A WARNING BECAUSE OF THE LONG DURATION
COMBINED WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ALSO BECAUSE THERE WILL BE SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEAST OREGON THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND INTO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. ADVISORIES
STILL COVER THE TREASURE VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE MAIN THING TO KNOW ABOUT THIS IS THAT THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN
PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW...ONE TONIGHT AS AN INITIAL WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND A SECOND ONE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS A SECOND...STRONGER...WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IN
ADDITION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING MORE
SNOW TO THE TOTAL. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 MPH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE
DRIFTING SNOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR ROAD CREWS
TO KEEP THE ROADS CLEAR. THIS IS ANOTHER REASON TO UPGRADE FROM
ADVISORY TO WARNING. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. TEMPS HAVE BARELY RISEN OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION OF THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS SQUEEZED THROUGH THE PASSES
AND MOVED WESTWARD THROUGH ROCKIES AND INTO OUR AREA...SNOW ON THE
GROUND...AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL. WE HAVE GONE WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE AGAIN TOMORROW...EVEN AFTER TONIGHT/S WARM FRONT...
BETTING THE SAME BASIC THING WILL HAPPEN. ON SATURDAY...AFTER THE
SECOND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPS COULD THEORETICALLY WARM
INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WE DID NOT PUT THIS IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE WE BELIEVE
THAT THE SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL INHIBIT WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO REACH WELL BELOW NORMAL AS WELL...EVEN THOUGH
THERE IS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. POPS WERE RAISED AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE PRECIP EVENT IS EXTREMELY HIGH NOW.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE BREAKS IN THE PRECIP FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL MOST FOLKS
WILL SEE SNOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITHIN EACH DAY/NIGHT
PERIOD IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. FINALLY...THE TIMING OF THE
WARMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH IS IMPORTANT. WE HAVE
SNOW CHANGING TO A MIX OR TO ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
LONGER IT TAKES FOR THIS TO HAPPEN...THE MORE SNOW WILL PILE UP
BEFORE IT STARTS TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE RAIN. EVEN AFTER IT
CHANGES TO RAIN...FOR MANY BACK ROADS THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE FROM
SNOW AND ICE...TO WATER-COVERED ICE...WHICH IS MANY TIMES EVEN
MORE SLICK. BE SAFE OUT THERE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MILD MOIST PACIFIC AIR INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE LEAST
CONSISTENT ON TIMING INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...SO OUR FORECAST RELIES ON
BLENDS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE EUROPEAN MODELS. THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE
SNOW IS STILL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
2-4 INCHES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS
WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY IDZ015-016-029-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY
IDZ011>014-028-033.
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ SATURDAY
ORZ061-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY ORZ064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ062.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/TB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014
.AVIATION...
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT DOING ANYTHING TO HELP CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS GAVE THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE CHANGES.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN ONE TERMINAL OVER ANOTHER IS QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. FOR ALL SITES...AM GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING HOURS.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...AND THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION A
BIT LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE
06Z TAFS...BUT IS A POSSIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
UPPER STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
FOX
&&
.UPDATE...
AS ONE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS...ANOTHER ONE CAN
BE SEEN ON THIS EVENING/S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWINGING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND IS PROGGED TO REACH WEST TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN SWING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE BEST OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES OVERHEAD...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN OVER
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO CANTON LINE.
FARTHER NORTH...LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE ADDITION OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS
INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE. WITH MODEST LIFT
ALREADY PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE....SOME LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD
BE AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
METROPLEX. ONE POSSIBLE REASON FOR THIS COULD BE THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ACQUIRING ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE JUST BEFORE ACCELERATING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WHATEVER THE CASE MAY BE...THE ONE UPDATE
THIS EVENING HAS BEEN TO BUMP POPS UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX AND ADD SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS. THIS KEEPS DALLAS FORT
WORTH PROPER IN THE DUSTING TO 0.2 INCH RANGE WHICH SHOULD NOT
REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR UPDATES
TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS WERE NEEDED.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014/
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY HAS MOVED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST
BUT THE NEXT ONE IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL RAPIDLY
MOVE EAST AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SYSTEM
VERY WELL...BUT THE BETTER PERFORMERS WERE THE NAM AND RAP AND
THEREFORE WILL BE LEANING IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TOMORROWS FORECAST IS VERY LOW GIVEN OUR
FORECAST OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIP IS NOT REALLY SUPPORTED IN
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT WE ARE WARY OF THE
STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM ALSO BEING UNDERESTIMATED.
ONCE AGAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONG BUT THE MAIN ISSUE IS
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
ACTUALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT HIGH MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL
SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION
AND BANDED SNOWFALL IN THE AREA OF THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR 500 TO
600MB OR NEAR 18-22 THOUSAND FEET. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ON AREA RADARS. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON JUST HOW DRY THE AIRMASS WILL BE IN A LAYER NEAR 700 TO 850MB
OR ABOUT 5-10 THOUSAND FEET. WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF
AND ONE SREF MEMBER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FALLING
SNOW WILL SUBLIMATE WHEN IT REACHES THIS DRY LAYER AND NOT REACH
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AM NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS JUST YET...AT
LEAST NOT UNTIL WE CAN SEE THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM THE EVENING
RAOBS AT MAF AND DRT. OBVIOUSLY THERE WAS A LOT MORE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN THE AREA THAN WAS FORECAST TODAY AND IT IS LIKELY
STILL HANGING AROUND. SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM INDICATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SNOW PRODUCING AREA
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL INTENSITY...BELIEVE MORE SATURATION
WILL OCCUR FROM TOP DOWN THAN MODELS INDICATE. THUS WILL FORECAST
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20
TOMORROW...WITH POPS FOR MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AT 20 PERCENT
AND ACCUMULATIONS AT JUST A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL BE BRINGING WARMER AIR AND RICH GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN A HURRY AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW SUBTLE LIFT OCCURRING NEAR 925MB
WHICH WOULD CORRESPOND TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE DAY
BREAK. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE BELOW FREEZING.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THIS OCCURS. MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK TO
WARM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD IN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH IF ANY. HOWEVER WHEN THE PRECIP STARTS IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL TRY TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SO IT MAY START AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN BUT SHOULD TRANSITION
TO REGULAR DRIZZLE OR RAIN DURING THE EVENT. AFTER A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF VERY COLD SUBFREEZING TEMPS...ROAD SURFACES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD STICK ON IMPACT. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION OF ICE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STILL THIS CAN BE A MAJOR TRAFFIC HAZARD
ESPECIALLY IF PEOPLE ARE NOT AWARE OF ICE ON ROADS. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO GET THE WORD OUT ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL TRAVEL ISSUES TOMORROW. THANKS TO WFO EWX/HGX/SHV
FOR THE COORDINATION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DOWN SLOPE WESTERLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER
ECMWF/GFS FORECASTS WITH THIS FRONT...AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE
SHALLOW AND WANT TO SPILL SOUTH DUE TO ITS HIGHER DENSITY.
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST WILL FEATURE INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE SUNDAY FRONT WILL SETTLE IN
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD DOME AND WE
SHOULD SEE CHANCES OF PRECIP STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASING INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OUTPUT
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TAME.
FURTHERMORE THE GFS/CANADIAN WOULD SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD WINTER MIX
EVENT FOR THE REGION...BUT AGAIN THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS. FOR
NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME WINTER PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THE
REGION THAT IS MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TO SEE WINTER PRECIP
AND WITH MODEL AGREEMENT LOW...IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP THE WINTER
MIX UP THERE AND SPREAD IT SOUTH SHOULD THE ECMWF COME IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 21 34 29 57 34 / 10 30 10 0 0
WACO, TX 23 35 29 64 38 / 20 20 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 21 33 25 53 33 / 10 30 20 0 0
DENTON, TX 19 33 26 56 30 / 10 30 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 21 33 26 55 31 / 10 30 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 22 34 30 57 37 / 10 30 10 0 0
TERRELL, TX 23 34 27 57 34 / 10 20 10 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 24 34 30 60 38 / 10 30 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 24 35 29 65 38 / 20 30 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 19 37 26 60 31 / 10 20 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ156>160-174-175.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ122-
135-146>148-161-162.
&&
$$
14/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1034 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014
.UPDATE...
AS ONE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS...ANOTHER ONE CAN
BE SEEN ON THIS EVENING/S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWINGING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND IS PROGGED TO REACH WEST TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN SWING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE BEST OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES OVERHEAD...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN OVER
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO CANTON LINE.
FARTHER NORTH...LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE ADDITION OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS
INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE. WITH MODEST LIFT
ALREADY PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE....SOME LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD
BE AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
METROPLEX. ONE POSSIBLE REASON FOR THIS COULD BE THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ACQUIRING ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE JUST BEFORE ACCELERATING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WHATEVER THE CASE MAY BE...THE ONE UPDATE
THIS EVENING HAS BEEN TO BUMP POPS UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX AND ADD SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS. THIS KEEPS DALLAS FORT
WORTH PROPER IN THE DUSTING TO 0.2 INCH RANGE WHICH SHOULD NOT
REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR UPDATES
TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS WERE NEEDED.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
INTERESTING FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW. FOR THE
TAFS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST SKIES...WITH CEILINGS
HOVERING AROUND 030BKN/OVC. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AROUND 10KNOTS.
THE BIG QUESTIONS OCCUR TOMORROW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTH AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN OR A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS DOESN`T OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN
THE FORECAST...ROUGHLY AROUND 18Z. IN THE NORTH...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE METROPLEX AREA
TAFS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
FLURRIES AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
TAKING A PEEK AT THE INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE BONE DRY. HOWEVER...LIKE TODAY...THERE IS MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF LIFT. NEWEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A HINT AT ELEVATED
CAPE WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE MESOSCALE BANDS IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...HAVE YET TO SEE THE FULL
RESOLUTION SOUNDINGS SO AM NOT YET SURE IF THIS IS AN ACCURATE
INTERPRETATION OF THE AVAILABLE DATA.
LOCAL WRF OUTPUT SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE BANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MODEL ALSO PICKED UP ON THE
BANDING FEATURES THIS MORNING...BUT DID NOT PLACE THEM IN THE
RIGHT SPOT. SO...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A FEW THINGS.
FIRST...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER SHOT AT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. EXACTLY WHERE THE BANDS SET
UP IS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. SECOND...THE LOCAL WRF...THE 21Z
SREF...AND THE LATEST 00Z NAM ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT OUR CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH WHAT THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE GIVES US.
FOX
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014/
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY HAS MOVED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST
BUT THE NEXT ONE IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL RAPIDLY
MOVE EAST AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SYSTEM
VERY WELL...BUT THE BETTER PERFORMERS WERE THE NAM AND RAP AND
THEREFORE WILL BE LEANING IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TOMORROWS FORECAST IS VERY LOW GIVEN OUR
FORECAST OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIP IS NOT REALLY SUPPORTED IN
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT WE ARE WARY OF THE
STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM ALSO BEING UNDERESTIMATED.
ONCE AGAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONG BUT THE MAIN ISSUE IS
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
ACTUALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT HIGH MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL
SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION
AND BANDED SNOWFALL IN THE AREA OF THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR 500 TO
600MB OR NEAR 18-22 THOUSAND FEET. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ON AREA RADARS. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON JUST HOW DRY THE AIRMASS WILL BE IN A LAYER NEAR 700 TO 850MB
OR ABOUT 5-10 THOUSAND FEET. WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF
AND ONE SREF MEMBER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FALLING
SNOW WILL SUBLIMATE WHEN IT REACHES THIS DRY LAYER AND NOT REACH
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AM NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS JUST YET...AT
LEAST NOT UNTIL WE CAN SEE THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM THE EVENING
RAOBS AT MAF AND DRT. OBVIOUSLY THERE WAS A LOT MORE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN THE AREA THAN WAS FORECAST TODAY AND IT IS LIKELY
STILL HANGING AROUND. SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM INDICATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SNOW PRODUCING AREA
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL INTENSITY...BELIEVE MORE SATURATION
WILL OCCUR FROM TOP DOWN THAN MODELS INDICATE. THUS WILL FORECAST
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20
TOMORROW...WITH POPS FOR MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AT 20 PERCENT
AND ACCUMULATIONS AT JUST A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL BE BRINGING WARMER AIR AND RICH GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN A HURRY AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW SUBTLE LIFT OCCURRING NEAR 925MB
WHICH WOULD CORRESPOND TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE DAY
BREAK. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE BELOW FREEZING.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THIS OCCURS. MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK TO
WARM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD IN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH IF ANY. HOWEVER WHEN THE PRECIP STARTS IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL TRY TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SO IT MAY START AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN BUT SHOULD TRANSITION
TO REGULAR DRIZZLE OR RAIN DURING THE EVENT. AFTER A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF VERY COLD SUBFREEZING TEMPS...ROAD SURFACES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD STICK ON IMPACT. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION OF ICE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STILL THIS CAN BE A MAJOR TRAFFIC HAZARD
ESPECIALLY IF PEOPLE ARE NOT AWARE OF ICE ON ROADS. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO GET THE WORD OUT ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL TRAVEL ISSUES TOMORROW. THANKS TO WFO EWX/HGX/SHV
FOR THE COORDINATION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DOWN SLOPE WESTERLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER
ECMWF/GFS FORECASTS WITH THIS FRONT...AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE
SHALLOW AND WANT TO SPILL SOUTH DUE TO ITS HIGHER DENSITY.
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST WILL FEATURE INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE SUNDAY FRONT WILL SETTLE IN
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD DOME AND WE
SHOULD SEE CHANCES OF PRECIP STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASING INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OUTPUT
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TAME.
FURTHERMORE THE GFS/CANADIAN WOULD SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD WINTER MIX
EVENT FOR THE REGION...BUT AGAIN THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS. FOR
NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME WINTER PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THE
REGION THAT IS MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TO SEE WINTER PRECIP
AND WITH MODEL AGREEMENT LOW...IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP THE WINTER
MIX UP THERE AND SPREAD IT SOUTH SHOULD THE ECMWF COME IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 21 34 29 57 34 / 10 20 10 0 0
WACO, TX 23 35 29 64 38 / 20 20 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 21 33 25 53 33 / 10 20 20 0 0
DENTON, TX 19 33 26 56 30 / 10 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 21 33 26 55 31 / 10 20 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 22 34 30 57 37 / 10 20 10 0 0
TERRELL, TX 23 34 27 57 34 / 10 20 10 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 24 34 30 60 38 / 10 30 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 24 35 29 65 38 / 20 30 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 19 37 26 60 31 / 10 20 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ156>160-174-175.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ122-
135-146>148-161-162.
&&
$$
/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
827 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL
BE COLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND IS DOING LITTLE
SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF CLOUDS AND
SOME FLURRIES AS IT PASSES.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. DESPITE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND THE LACK
OF A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...THE LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND...AND AN
INLAND EXTENT REACHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE BAND IS KEEPING THE HEAVIEST ECHOES TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS BAND WILL
SLOWLY START TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS MOSTLY UNINHABITED
FOREST PRESERVE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DISRUPT THE FLOW ENOUGH BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THIS BAND.
BEFORE THAT OCCURS...AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS MOVEMENT AND
WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE 09Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST PRODUCT...AS WELL AS THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF.
BY THE AFTN...WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST SNOW BY THAT POINT LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
SOME SHELTERED AREAS THAT HAD NO WIND AND HAD MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GOT
VERY COLD THIS MORNING...SUCH AS IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE
IT DROPPED AS LOW AS -13 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WERE NEAR
ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...TEMPS WILL
STEADILY WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS
AREA...AND SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN STRATOCU AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE MOISTURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ONLY SOME FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AROUND 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. MOST SITES LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE
DRY OR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL. ITS TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
627 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY COLD WEATHER...WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 626 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY. THIS NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND
IS DOING LITTLE SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLEAR FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. DESPITE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND THE LACK
OF A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...THE LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND...AND AN
INLAND EXTENT REACHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE BAND IS KEEPING THE HEAVIEST ECHOES TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS BAND WILL
SLOWLY START TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS MOSTLY UNINHABITED
FOREST PRESERVE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DISRUPT THE FLOW ENOUGH BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THIS BAND.
BEFORE THAT OCCURS...AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS MOVEMENT AND
WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE 09Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST PRODUCT...AS WELL AS THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF.
BY THE AFTN...WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST SNOW BY THAT POINT LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
SOME SHELTERED AREAS THAT HAD NO WIND AND HAD MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GOT
VERY COLD THIS MORNING...SUCH AS IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE
IT DROPPED AS LOW AS -13 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WERE NEAR
ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...TEMPS WILL
STEADILY WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS
AREA...AND SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN STRATOCU AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE MOISTURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AROUND 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD. MOST SITES LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE
DRY OR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL. ITS TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
951 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.UPDATE...STRONG HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE TN VALLEY
AROUND 1035 MB AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SRN PARTS OF
FL. INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES OFFSHORE OF THE FL EAST COAST WITH
WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS. A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS IN THE REGION UP TO ABOUT 2000 FT WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
OUT TO THE NE OVER SE GA BUT OTHERWISE SOME NVA EXPECTED UP UNTIL
ABOUT 21Z WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
IMPACT OUR SW PORTION OF ZONES. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS FROM BRUNSWICK GA TO LIVE OAK SWD ASSOCIATED WITH OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS ATOP THE COOL BOUNDARY. RADAR SHOWERS A FEW SHOWERS AND
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER THE SRN ZONES.
FOR REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...BELIEVE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN GRADUALLY AS LOW PRES OFFSHORE OF FL EAST COAST MOVES NWD TO
THE ABOUT THE LATITUDE OF JAX TO AROUND 180 NM. EXPECT INCREASED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WE INCREASE POPS LATER TODAY SE PARTS BUT NOT HIGHER THAN CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECT THAT TONIGHT GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE AND QPF OVER SE GA. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S COAST TO AROUND 60
INLAND AND CURRENT TEMP FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR NE FL TAFS. PREVAILING VFR CIGS AROUND
3500-5000 FT AT SSI BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR BY MID AFTN THROUGH EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN MORE NELY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATE REGION WIDE TONIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND OCNL VSBY 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND BR.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ARE IN THE SCA RANGE BOTH NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
SO RAISED SCA FOR NEAR-SHORE WATERS S OF MAYPORT TIL THIS AFTN AND
EXTENDED OFFSHORE SCA INTO EVENING. WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
ENE THEN NE LATER TONIGHT AND SAT AS SFC LOW NEARS OUR WATERS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXTENT AND DURATION OF SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS
DUE TO APPROACHING SFC LOW.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH SIDE SHORE OR ONSHORE FLOW
AND EAST SWELLS. LOW TO MODERATE RISK SATURDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 59 45 62 39 / 10 90 50 0
SSI 54 48 58 46 / 20 90 80 10
JAX 56 48 62 46 / 20 90 80 10
SGJ 59 54 61 50 / 30 70 90 10
GNV 59 52 63 44 / 20 70 80 10
OCF 62 54 65 48 / 20 50 90 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
SHASHY/TRABERT/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.UPDATE...
TEMP AND POP FORECAST TODAY REMAINS THE CHALLENGE AS THE
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY PERSISTS OVER THE STATE. A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN FROM CITRUS COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH HILLSBOROUGH
AND POLK. HOWEVER...RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO AND 12Z HRRR RUN SUGGEST THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE
OVER THE COMING HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA AS A LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES...THE EXCEPTION BEING FAR SW ZONES WHERE A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE APPEARS LIKELY LATER TODAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN DESIRED FOR THE NEAR TERM.
FOR NOW...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS MADE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE THIS MORNING. VICINITY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AND IFR CEILINGS LIKELY
RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 02Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 66 57 66 54 / 40 20 70 20
FMY 80 62 80 60 / 20 10 30 30
GIF 66 57 69 54 / 40 20 50 30
SRQ 68 59 69 55 / 30 20 50 20
BKV 65 54 64 46 / 30 30 80 20
SPG 67 60 67 57 / 40 20 70 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...24/COLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
445 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND AND WHAT TO DO WITH THE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED FLOW
OVER THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD TROUGHINESS AND FAST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY. SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
MOVING EAST. TWO STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES ARE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS HAS MODIFIED SOME BUT IS STILL COLD AND MOIST.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF DID THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
THIS WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
FIRST THE MODELS...EVEN THE MESOSCALE ONES...HAVING A HARD TIME THIS
MORNING RESOLVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. SECOND IS THE MODELS DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING
UPPER JET FEATURES AND SURFACE/LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IN REGARDS TO CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE HIGHLIGHT HAVE VERIFIED WITH THE
REMAINING AREA NOT THAT FAR AWAY. CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LET
TEMPERATURES DROP MUCH MORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST WHICH
HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE NIGHT. AM NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
MUCH MORE OF THE ADVISORY VERIFYING BUT ANY SMALL SHIFT OF THE WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEN A
STRONGER LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. GOING BY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. THAT COMBINED WITH THE JET
LIFT IS CAUSING FLURRIES THIS MORNING. ALSO IN THE RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WAS
NOT CAUGHT BY ANYTHING EARLIER BUT NOW THE HRRR HAS RECENTLY CAUGHT
ON TO THIS IDEA A LITTLE. SO WILL HAVE FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG PER
REALITY AND 00Z SOUNDINGS FOR THIS MORNING.
AM THINKING THE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST IF NOT THE
ENTIRE DAY WITH MAYBE THE EXCEPTION IN THE FAR WEST. SO TENDED TO
COOL MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EASTERN PORTION BEING
THE COLDEST.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH STARTS MOVING THROUGH
EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY SO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD START IN DROPPING AND GETTING COLDER.
HOWEVER...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TENDED TO NOT CHANGE THE MINS VERY MUCH. NEXT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
CAN SEE FOG...ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT HAS HAPPENED THIS MORNING...BUT
THINK THE MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO REMOVED
THAT AND KEPT THE FOG.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY START SHOWING
THEMSELVES HEAR. MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION AND STRUCTURE OF A
COMPLICATED JET WHICH HAS DIFFERENT CONSEQUENCES IN THE FORECAST. AT
THIS TIME THE BEST LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET AND PV ANOMALY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SCARCE WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF LIFT...REMOVED PRECIPITATION
FROM THE MORNING AND KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS FLURRIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT PLUS THE
REAL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SO
ALSO KEPT THE NIGHT POPS WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
UNCERTAINTY BUT THINK POPS MAY BE OVERDONE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH
FOR THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INDICATED 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE...BREEZY
AND MORE LIKELY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
AND IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE DAY. AS SPECIFIED ABOVE THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER WEAKER BOUNDARY/PRELIMINARY COLD PUSH MOVING INTO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS...DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CAN GO
EITHER WAY BUT THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING IN THIS COOLER AIR. CONSIDERING WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...LIKE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD AIR. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE TEMPERATURES AND IN SOME
CASES SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE MODELS BLAST THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH A MODEL OR TWO RETREATING THE FRONT AND THEN
BRING IT BACK THROUGH OR BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THERE ARE EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS AND WENT COLDER.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUR AREA TENDS TO
REMAIN BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT JET SEGMENTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHEN
BY LATE IN THE DAY A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS INDICATED. THEN THE
BRUNT OF THIS AND OTHER LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES GET BETTER DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL. SOUNDINGS
START MOISTENING UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND REALLY ONLY BECOME
SATURATED DURING THE NIGHT.
SO BELIEVE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH NEIGHBORS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY. SO MADE TWO ADJUSTMENTS PER
REASONING ABOVE. SPLIT SUNDAY POPS INTO A MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. MODELS DISAGREE WHEN IT WILL
HAPPEN...BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT RECEIVING SNOW AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND
THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BRINGING WARMER
AIR OVER THE AREA. EVEN IF THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IS FURTHER
WEST...WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...AM THINKING FLURRIES ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND DEEPENS EAST OF
THE AREA WHERE PRECIP. CHANCES WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
OTHERWISE THE LAMINAR NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY NUDGES EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL START OUT AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS THE
COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
TRICKY SET OF TAFS ESPECIALLY CURRENT MODEL SUITE CATCHING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL FIELD VERY WELL. FOR KGLD...MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z. THEN PRECIPITATION AND FOG
ENDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS LASTING LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR KMCK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BECOME MVFR AROUND 06Z. BY 09Z VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
511 AM CST Fri Feb 7 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
09Z water vapor imagery shows a low amplitude shortwave coming
across NM while a closed low spins off the British Columbia coast
with another shortwave rotating around the low towards ID. Meanwhile
surface obs show an expansive ridge of high pressure centered over
the middle MS river valley. Surface winds have already started to
show southerly flow returning to central KS. Cloud cover has
prevented temps from falling below zero for most areas. This
combined with calm winds means wind chill values are not quite as
low as originally forecast.
For today and tonight, the forecast area is expected to generally
remain in between the main two shortwaves with the southern wave
moving across OK and TX today while the wave near ID moves from the
northern plains into IA overnight. So in general large scale forcing
for precip appears to be pretty marginal. There remains some
indications for some weak isentropic upglide through the day and
into the evening within the low level warm air advection pattern on
the back side of the departing surface ridge. However the isentropic
upglide never really looks robust. Model forecast soundings continue
to suggest the stratus layer will be around -12C through at least
the day. So with the likelihood for ice within the cloud think trace
amounts of light snow would be the most likely precip today.
Overnight the cloud layer becomes relatively warmer so ice becomes
less likely. However models show only very weak vertical motion if
there is any at all. The 00Z NAM was the most robust with the low
level vertical motion tonight, but was also considered an outlier on
the strong side in amplifying the northern shortwave. The 06Z NAM
has trended less amplified with the wave and also shows less
vertical motion within the cloud overnight. So think chances for
measurable precip are less than 20 percent and have lowered POPs. Am
not that excited about freezing drizzle chances either, but will
keep a mention across southern counties where mid levels are most
likely to dry out leaving only super cooled water in the cloud.
Tweaked highs today down a degree from the previous forecast due
mainly to overcast skies expected through the day. Still with the
weak warm air advection, highs should manage the middle teens. Do
not think there will be much of a diurnal change between today`s
highs and Saturday`s lows with southerly winds and overcast skies
persisting through the night. Therefore the forecast has Lows
Saturday morning in the 10 to 15 degree range.
Wolters
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
An upper trough on Saturday continues to deepen as it migrates
southeastward towards the Mississippi Valley. A trailing surface low
will force a cold front into northeast Kansas on Saturday afternoon.
Could see some decent warming ahead of the wind shift with clearing
skies and temperatures peaking into the upper 20s/lower 30s. Cold
air advection quickly spreads behind the front, falling temperatures
through the afternoon and evening. Models deviate somewhat on how
far south the 1040 MB surface high spreads southward behind the
departing trough. Overnight lows Sunday morning were averaged in the
single digits to low teens, however if the ECMWF were to verify
spreading the ridge axis further south, actual temperatures Sunday
could be much lower. The arctic high pressure influence Saturday
through Tuesday will keep temperatures below normal. Highs overall
range in the teens and lower 20s with overnight lows in the single
digits, close to zero degrees near the Nebraska and Kansas border.
Wind chills at this time do not appear to be much lower as high
pressure maintains light wind speeds. On Wednesday, upper shortwave
trough entering the Pacific Northwest deepens across the Northern
Plains. Meanwhile, the accompanying h85 trough backs winds to the
southwest, advecting much needed warm air into northeast Kansas for
Wednesday and especially Thursday. Wednesday highs range at and just
above the freezing mark and Thursday is currently progged in the 40s
allowing for ample melting of the snow to occur.
Focus turns to precipitation chances where confidence in each event
is low due to the very active and weak zonal flow in the mid levels.
The aforementioned shortwave trough expected to bring a cold front
through on Saturday, also develops a strong PV anomaly over eastern
Nebraska into southern Iowa. While ample lift is prevalent just to
our northeast, could still some light snow across far northeast
Kansas. Therefore kept the previous forecast with little to no
accumulations expected. The 500 HPA jet increases southward into the
area with increasing isentropic lift in the 850-700 MB layer. Saturation
is difficult to achieve dependent on the model, NAM remaining dry in
the dendritic layer while the GFS saturates the column by early
Sunday. Regardless, forcing on either model is not particularly
strong to warrant several inches of accumulating snow. Snow ratios
do appear more on the higher side between 15 and 20:1 translating to
near an inch of new snowfall on Sunday. Pops were increased ten percent
into the chance category for this period. Models differ greatly by
Monday as the ECMWF is slower than the GFS by a day with the next
shortwave trough coming off the California coast. The GFS also keeps
the PV anomaly over the Southern Plains with some minor QPF values
over the southern half of the CWA. Have therefore kept the slight
chances for snow Monday through Tuesday with no expectations of snow
accumulating at this point. Forecast becomes dry Wednesday onward.
Another system following a similar track across the Intermountain
West deepens over Nebraska on Wednesday evening. Confidence is too
low for mentioning precipitation; trends of the models will be
monitored for consistency in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 511 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
Models show stratus hanging in through Saturday morning as low
level warm air advection brings relatively moist air into the
area. Main uncertainty is when CIGS might lower to MVFR. RAP has
tended to be aggressive with low level RH and the NAM seems to be
the slowest in bringing the lower CIGS into the terminals. So used
a compromise in timing with the RAP/NAM/GFS which was pretty close
to the prev forecast. Low level vertical motion continues to look
meager so any precip should be very light. Any VSBY restrictions
should remain above 3SM due to expected light nature to any
flurries or very light mist and some mixing in the boundary layer.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND AND WHAT TO DO WITH THE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED FLOW
OVER THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD TROUGHINESS AND FAST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY. SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
MOVING EAST. TWO STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES ARE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS HAS MODIFIED SOME BUT IS STILL COLD AND MOIST.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF DID THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
THIS WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
FIRST THE MODELS...EVEN THE MESOSCALE ONES...HAVING A HARD TIME THIS
MORNING RESOLVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. SECOND IS THE MODELS DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING
UPPER JET FEATURES AND SURFACE/LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IN REGARDS TO CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE HIGHLIGHT HAVE VERIFIED WITH THE
REMAINING AREA NOT THAT FAR AWAY. CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LET
TEMPERATURES DROP MUCH MORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST WHICH
HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE NIGHT. AM NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
MUCH MORE OF THE ADVISORY VERIFYING BUT ANY SMALL SHIFT OF THE WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEN A
STRONGER LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. GOING BY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. THAT COMBINED WITH THE JET
LIFT IS CAUSING FLURRIES THIS MORNING. ALSO IN THE RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WAS
NOT CAUGHT BY ANYTHING EARLIER BUT NOW THE HRRR HAS RECENTLY CAUGHT
ON TO THIS IDEA A LITTLE. SO WILL HAVE FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG PER
REALITY AND 00Z SOUNDINGS FOR THIS MORNING.
AM THINKING THE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST IF NOT THE
ENTIRE DAY WITH MAYBE THE EXCEPTION IN THE FAR WEST. SO TENDED TO
COOL MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EASTERN PORTION BEING
THE COLDEST.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH STARTS MOVING THROUGH
EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY SO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD START IN DROPPING AND GETTING COLDER.
HOWEVER...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TENDED TO NOT CHANGE THE MINS VERY MUCH. NEXT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
CAN SEE FOG...ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT HAS HAPPENED THIS MORNING...BUT
THINK THE MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO REMOVED
THAT AND KEPT THE FOG.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY START SHOWING
THEMSELVES HEAR. MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION AND STRUCTURE OF A
COMPLICATED JET WHICH HAS DIFFERENT CONSEQUENCES IN THE FORECAST. AT
THIS TIME THE BEST LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET AND PV ANOMALY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SCARCE WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF LIFT...REMOVED PRECIPITATION
FROM THE MORNING AND KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS FLURRIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT PLUS THE
REAL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SO
ALSO KEPT THE NIGHT POPS WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
UNCERTAINTY BUT THINK POPS MAY BE OVERDONE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH
FOR THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INDICATED 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE...BREEZY
AND MORE LIKELY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
AND IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE DAY. AS SPECIFIED ABOVE THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER WEAKER BOUNDARY/PRELIMINARY COLD PUSH MOVING INTO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS...DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CAN GO
EITHER WAY BUT THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING IN THIS COOLER AIR. CONSIDERING WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...LIKE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD AIR. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE TEMPERATURES AND IN SOME
CASES SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE MODELS BLAST THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH A MODEL OR TWO RETREATING THE FRONT AND THEN
BRING IT BACK THROUGH OR BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THERE ARE EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS AND WENT COLDER.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUR AREA TENDS TO
REMAIN BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT JET SEGMENTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHEN
BY LATE IN THE DAY A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS INDICATED. THEN THE
BRUNT OF THIS AND OTHER LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES GET BETTER DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL. SOUNDINGS
START MOISTENING UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND REALLY ONLY BECOME
SATURATED DURING THE NIGHT.
SO BELIEVE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH NEIGHBORS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY. SO MADE TWO ADJUSTMENTS PER
REASONING ABOVE. SPLIT SUNDAY POPS INTO A MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. MODELS DISAGREE WHEN IT WILL
HAPPEN...BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT RECEIVING SNOW AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND
THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BRINGING WARMER
AIR OVER THE AREA. EVEN IF THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IS FURTHER
WEST...WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...AM THINKING FLURRIES ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND DEEPENS EAST OF
THE AREA WHERE PRECIP. CHANCES WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
OTHERWISE THE LAMINAR NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY NUDGES EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL START OUT AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS THE
COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MST THU FEB 6 2014
GLD MAY SEE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 13-15Z...
OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH MCK AND GLD DUE MAINLY TO LOW CLOUDS. AFTER
00-03Z...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN DISSIPATING WITH AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THOUGH WARMING...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME RETURNS WHICH COULD
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...MOST LIKELY AS DRIZZLE. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND...AGAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE...MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT. ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL
BE LIGHT BUT STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
THREAT OF WET BULBING ALSO A CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ANY
PRECIP WHERE READINGS ARE CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WENT AHEAD
AND EXTENDED WW ADVSY UNTIL NOON WHICH MATCHES UP W/ NEIGHBORING
OFFICES TOO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE AND RADAR
TRENDS AND POSSIBLY FURTHER EXTEND THIS ADVISORY IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO ADJUST TEMPS TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS. NAM12, TX TECH WRF & HRRR SUGGEST INCREASING LIGHT
PRECIP COVERAGE 2-9 PM ACROSS THE REGION AS INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE BECOMES FELT AND LLVLS FURTHER SATURATE. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 36 32 63 43 66 / 40 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 40 34 63 47 68 / 40 40 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 40 60 53 65 / 30 40 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
MADISON...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
517 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -SN AT LBB THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDS AND BREEZY SW WINDS BY MIDDAY BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH. AT
MOST WE EXPECT ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...SO WILL FOREGO AN AIRPORT
WX WARNING.
VFR CONDS WILL BE DELAYED AT CDS UNTIL AT LEAST MID-AFTN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THRU THE EVENING
UNTIL DRIER SWLY WINDS FINALLY EMERGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE LAST IN A STRING OF MINOR TROUGHS WILL ENTER THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS A.M.
INDICATED PERIODS OF UNMEASURABLE SNOW FROM AMARILLO SOUTH TO
LUBBOCK. RECENT HRRR AND NAM APPEAR ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF
SUSTAINED LIFT TAKING SHAPE FROM THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE FAR
SRN SOUTH PLAINS NEAR SUNRISE. THIS REGION IS ALREADY BENEFITING
FROM PROLONGED /ALBEIT WEAK/ ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STOUT 120 KNOT UPPER JET. BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING APPEARS A BIT TOO HARD TO
COME BY IN THIS SETUP. SO WE HAVE PULLED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FAVOR
OF FLURRIES BEFORE NIXING THIS MENTION ALTOGETHER BY THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE WILL TUG
MILDER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAPROCK...BUT STUBBORN S-SE WINDS OFF
THE CAPROCK AND A LINGERING SNOW PACK IN PLACES WILL KEEP HIGHS HERE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER. EXPECT A BIT MORE UNIFORMITY TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA.
LONG TERM...
AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...WITH A BROAD MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST...RIDGE WEST...AND WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. TWO
PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOMETIME SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MONDAY/TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM ACROSS THE AREA...AS BREEZY
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 60S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND. FROM HERE...THE
BIG QUESTION MARK REMAINS THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH. OPTED TO
SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS... AS DAYTIME FROPAS TEND
TO BE SLOWED BY DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF THEM. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING WESTERLIES WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY... WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A SHARP COOLDOWN.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED AS WELL THAT WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
SUNDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT MONDAY
AND MOST LIKELY TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE REGARDING THE TIMING OF
YET ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW
ALOFT. THE GFS CURRENTLY DEPICTS A FASTER... MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED...AND WEAKER WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...WITH A TIMING DIFFERENCE
OF ALMOST A FULL 24 HOURS. OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE GFS
DEPICTION... WITH ENHANCED POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEGINNING
MONDAY EVENING. ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MOST OF THE RAIN MENTION...AS LATEST
FORECAST TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. STILL...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THIS UPPER WAVE DEPARTS...
BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ALLOW A PLEASANT WARMING TREND
TO CARRY US INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 41 27 59 29 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 38 24 57 29 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 39 24 59 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 43 27 62 31 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 41 26 60 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 42 28 66 32 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 42 28 61 30 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 29 21 53 23 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 34 21 51 24 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 34 25 59 30 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/93/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
409 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
THE LAST IN A STRING OF MINOR TROUGHS WILL ENTER THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS A.M.
INDICATED PERIODS OF UNMEASURABLE SNOW FROM AMARILLO SOUTH TO
LUBBOCK. RECENT HRRR AND NAM APPEAR ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF
SUSTAINED LIFT TAKING SHAPE FROM THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE FAR
SRN SOUTH PLAINS NEAR SUNRISE. THIS REGION IS ALREADY BENEFITING
FROM PROLONGED /ALBEIT WEAK/ ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STOUT 120 KNOT UPPER JET. BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING APPEARS A BIT TOO HARD TO
COME BY IN THIS SETUP. SO WE HAVE PULLED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FAVOR
OF FLURRIES BEFORE NIXING THIS MENTION ALTOGETHER BY THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE WILL TUG
MILDER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAPROCK...BUT STUBBORN S-SE WINDS OFF
THE CAPROCK AND A LINGERING SNOW PACK IN PLACES WILL KEEP HIGHS HERE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER. EXPECT A BIT MORE UNIFORMITY TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...
AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...WITH A BROAD MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST...RIDGE WEST...AND WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. TWO
PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOMETIME SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MONDAY/TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM ACROSS THE AREA...AS BREEZY
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 60S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND. FROM HERE...THE
BIG QUESTION MARK REMAINS THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH. OPTED TO
SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS... AS DAYTIME FROPAS TEND
TO BE SLOWED BY DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF THEM. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING WESTERLIES WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY... WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A SHARP COOLDOWN.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED AS WELL THAT WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
SUNDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT MONDAY
AND MOST LIKELY TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE REGARDING THE TIMING OF
YET ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW
ALOFT. THE GFS CURRENTLY DEPICTS A FASTER... MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED...AND WEAKER WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...WITH A TIMING DIFFERENCE
OF ALMOST A FULL 24 HOURS. OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE GFS
DEPICTION... WITH ENHANCED POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEGINNING
MONDAY EVENING. ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MOST OF THE RAIN MENTION...AS LATEST
FORECAST TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. STILL...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THIS UPPER WAVE DEPARTS...
BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ALLOW A PLEASANT WARMING TREND
TO CARRY US INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 41 27 59 29 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 38 24 57 29 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 39 24 59 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 43 27 62 31 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 41 26 60 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 42 28 66 32 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 42 28 61 30 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 29 21 53 23 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 34 21 51 24 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 34 25 59 30 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
550 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
WHERE TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY RISEN ABOVE ZERO. WILL LET THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SCOTTS BLUFF
AND MORRILL COUNTIES WHERE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO
THE WARMER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAVE SEEN A
STEADY AND WELCOME TREND UPWARD OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINED ON THE BREEZY SIDE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TODAY WILL SEE FURTHER WARMING DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND AS
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO
ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
REGARDING THE WINDS...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND WILL
STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD INDUCE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE ARLINGTON AREA WITH 700 MB WINDS
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 50 KTS THROUGH THIS TIME. THE HIGH WINDS SHOULD
THEN SPREAD INTO THE BORDEAUX AREA AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EASTWARD
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
WINDS OVERALL DO LOOK TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING 50 KT WINDS AT 700 MB TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING. THEREFORE...HIGH WINDS MAY
PERSIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. A STRONGER JET AND SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...WITH 700 MB WINDS PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SO...THINK HIGH WINDS
WILL RETURN BY MID SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS. FELT IT REASONABLE TO JUST EXTEND THE
CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SECOND SURGE OF HIGH
WINDS. THE ONE QUESTION THAT REMAINS TO BE ANSWERED IS JUST HOW
STRONG WINDS AT THE BORDEAUX SITE WILL BECOME DURING THIS SECONDARY
SURGE OF HIGH WINDS. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BACK INTO THE CWA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. IF THE
BOUNDARY SURGES ALL THE WAY TO THE LARAMIE RANGE...DOUBT BORDEAUX
WILL SEE THE STRONG WINDS AND THUS MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WARNING
HERE EARLY. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS MAY JUST KEEP THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AT BAY LONG
ENOUGH FOR THE GAP WINDS TO IMPACT THE I-25 CORRIDOR NEAR BORDEAUX.
THE OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE CWA. UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND STARTED IT AT NOON
TODAY AS AN INITIAL JETLET WILL SLAM INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES AND
LIKELY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNSET.
THEN AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...THE SECOND STRONGER JET WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD AND WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS CAREFULLY FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL. THINKING 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AT
SARATOGA AND ARLINGTON TODAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC
FORCING AND THE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SNOW ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE STRONGER JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. BLOWING SNOW WILL DEFINITELY BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND IF ARLINGTON RECEIVES THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE ENERGETIC JET WILL COME A BETTER FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE AS WELL. STILL LOOKS TO SEE INCREASING SNOW
POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTHERN LARAMIE EASTWARD INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING
FRONTOGENESIS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH WHERE THE AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP ON SATURDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING FURTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE CWA WHILE
THE NAM AND ECMWF SHIFT IT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD JET DYNAMICS AND LIFT
FROM THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF ZONES. EXPECT ENHANCED SNOW AMOUNTS WHEREVER THE FRONTOGENESIS
BAND SETS UP BUT ITS TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT WHERE THAT WILL BE.
WOULD FAVOR THE FURTHER NORTHWARD POSITION INITIALLY DUE TO THE
STRONG WESTERLY MIDLEVEL WINDS IN PLACE. SO...STILL THINKING 3 TO 6
INCHES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 6 TO 10 IN THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH THIS EVENT. AS A SFC HIGH DIVES SOUTH INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE SNOW BAND TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM WITH SNOW
CHANCES/LOCATIONS INITIALLY...THEN WINDS LATER NEXT WEEK BEING THE
FORECAST CHALLENGES.
STARTING OFF SUNDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SUNDAY MORNING LAYING ALONG A LINE FROM SIDNEY TO DOUGLAS
SUNDAY MORNING AND BOTH ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH QPF LOCATION AND
OUTPUT. GFS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON QPF THOUGH. NAM IS WAY TOO
DRY AND IS CONSIDERED THE OUTLIER ON THIS EVENT. IT WILL STILL BE
WINDY OUT WEST AS THE GFS KEEPS 700MB WINDS 50KTS OR GREATER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT BLOWING SNOW GOING OUT THAT WAY.
THIS BOUNDARY THEN LAYS UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY.
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WE HAVE ANOTHER JET MAX MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING WITH THE CWFA IN A FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
JET MAX. 700MB TEMPERATURES -10 TO -14C. PRETTY MOIST PROFILES
SEEN ON GFS SOUNDINGS FOR VARIOUS POINTS IN THE CWFA AS
WELL...WITH MOISTURE UP THROUGH 300MBS. FAIRLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE -10 TO -20C LAYER WITH 8-10 MICROBAR UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITIES HERE AT CHEYENNE. WITH SNOW RATIOS 20:1 OR HIGHER IN THIS
SETUP...WE COULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD SNOW EVENT BEING WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.
DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CWFA. WITH THIS MORNINGS RUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND MAYBE THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH LARAMIE AND
I-25 CORRIDOR UP TO WHEATLAND.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
SLOWLY AS WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST WITH SNOW
ENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES.
700MB WINDS REALLY BEGIN RAMPING UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING
TO 55KTS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING...INCREASING TO 65KTS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS STAY STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SO WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH WIND HEADLINES FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT KRWL AND KLAR LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASING AND SNOW BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
KRWL WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 35KT RANGE WHICH WILL
CREATE THE BLOWING SNOW. KLAR A LITTLE LATER FOR THE WINDS TO COME
UP. HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS OVER SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. VFR EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 544 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SNOW
BEGINNING IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
WYZ112-114.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
WYZ110.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR WYZ106-116.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ002-003-
020-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE ABNORMALLY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SHARP
HEIGHT RISES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE
BUILDING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED IN TX IS ALSO LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BACK-BUILDING CU FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL MOTION IS GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES NO POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0
PERCENT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FLAT RIDGING AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BETWEEN 576DM AND 582DM WITH H8 TEMPERATURES REACHING
TOWARDS A +12C TO +15C RANGE. THIS COMBINATION NEARLY MIRRORS
CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE/END OF JANUARY...AND
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE
AMPLIFYING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE DEFINED IN THE WAVE
STRUCTURE. REGARDLESS...IMPACTS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA IN THE FORM OF SCT SHOWERS...WITH ONLY AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDING THE SETUP FOR SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS
(THOUGH NOTHING UNSEASONABLY STRONG).
THEREAFTER...CONTINUED RIDGING AND BROAD WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS UNUSUALLY LOW
CONSIDERING THE WINTER SEASON WITH H5 HEIGHTS NOT FAR FROM 580DM
THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. H8 TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH
ABOVE THE +15C MARK...WITH AFTERNOON 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
ECLIPSING 139DM. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH OR EXCEED 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...WITH
MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS EXCEEDING THE 80F THRESHOLD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...MID TO HIGH
LEVEL SCT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-CLR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CIGS TO
RETURN ON SAT AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE
MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA BEGINS TO PUSH ANOTHER BATCH OF MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO
KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS IN DIRECTION AND SPEEDS.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY CLOUDS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL ONLY BE FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND HAVE
BASES AOA 10K FEET. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CIGS TO RETURN ON SAT AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL
CA BEGINS TO PUSH ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CIGS TO RETURN ON SAT AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA BEGINS TO
PUSH ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNTIL DRIER AIR FOLLOWS AFTER A
WEAK TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME
BREEZY WINDS...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE CO RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE INTO THE TEENS AFTER MONDAY WHILE
TEMPERATURES RISE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE ABNORMALLY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SHARP
HEIGHT RISES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE
BUILDING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED IN TX IS ALSO LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BACK-BUILDING CU FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL MOTION IS GENERALLY SUBSIDENT AND
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES NO POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0
PERCENT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FLAT RIDGING AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BETWEEN 576DM AND 582DM WITH H8 TEMPERATURES REACHING
TOWARDS A +12C TO +15C RANGE. THIS COMBINATION NEARLY MIRRORS
CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED DURING THE MIDDLE/END OF JANUARY...AND
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE
AMPLIFYING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE DEFINED IN THE WAVE
STRUCTURE. REGARDLESS...IMPACTS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA IN THE FORM OF SCT SHOWERS...WITH ONLY AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDING THE SETUP FOR SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS
(THOUGH NOTHING UNSEASONABLY STRONG).
THEREAFTER...CONTINUED RIDGING AND BROAD WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS UNUSUALLY LOW
CONSIDERING THE WINTER SEASON WITH H5 HEIGHTS NOT FAR FROM 580DM
THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. H8 TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH
ABOVE THE +15C MARK...WITH AFTERNOON 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
ECLIPSING 139DM. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH OR EXCEED 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...WITH
MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS EXCEEDING THE 80F THRESHOLD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LINGERING CIGS BETWEEN 6-8K FEET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNTIL DRIER AIR FOLLOWS AFTER A
WEAK TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME
BREEZY WINDS...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE CO RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE INTO THE TEENS AFTER MONDAY WHILE
TEMPERATURES RISE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
106 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL
BE COLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON EST...AMPLE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. KTYX RADAR REFLECTIVITIES
ARE VERY LIGHT AND HAVE REDUCED THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE...CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER OVER LAKE ONTARIO WHICH TOO
WILL HAVE LIMITS ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN
THE H2O VAPOR LOOP WAS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIMITED
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE NEW
ESTF SKY GRID FORECAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS LOOK GREAT WITH MINOR
HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.
PREV DISC...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND IS DOING LITTLE
SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF CLOUDS AND
SOME FLURRIES AS IT PASSES.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. DESPITE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND THE LACK
OF A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...THE LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND...AND AN
INLAND EXTENT REACHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE BAND IS KEEPING THE HEAVIEST ECHOES TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS BAND WILL
SLOWLY START TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS MOSTLY UNINHABITED
FOREST PRESERVE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DISRUPT THE FLOW ENOUGH BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THIS BAND.
BEFORE THAT OCCURS...AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS MOVEMENT AND
WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE 09Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST PRODUCT...AS WELL AS THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF.
BY THE AFTN...WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST SNOW BY THAT POINT LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
SOME SHELTERED AREAS THAT HAD NO WIND AND HAD MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GOT
VERY COLD THIS MORNING...SUCH AS IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE
IT DROPPED AS LOW AS -13 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WERE NEAR
ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...TEMPS WILL
STEADILY WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS
AREA...AND SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT.
THURSDAY AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE
SURFACE. ALOFT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS. HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
SOUTH TO WEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KPSF WITH SOME GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH
WESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE
DRY OR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL. ITS TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL
BE COLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON EST...AMPLE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. KTYX RADAR REFLECTIVITIES
ARE VERY LIGHT AND HAVE REDUCED THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE...CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER OVER LAKE ONTARIO WHICH TOO
WILL HAVE LIMITS ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN
THE H2O VAPOR LOOP WAS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIMITED
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE NEW
ESTF SKY GRID FORECAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS LOOK GREAT WITH MINOR
HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.
PREV DISC...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM FEATURE IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND IS DOING LITTLE
SYNOPTICALLY OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME A BATCH OF CLOUDS AND
SOME FLURRIES AS IT PASSES.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT W-SW FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. DESPITE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND THE LACK
OF A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION...THE LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND...AND AN
INLAND EXTENT REACHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE BAND IS KEEPING THE HEAVIEST ECHOES TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS BAND WILL
SLOWLY START TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA...WHICH IS MOSTLY UNINHABITED
FOREST PRESERVE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DISRUPT THE FLOW ENOUGH BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THIS BAND.
BEFORE THAT OCCURS...AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS MOVEMENT AND
WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE 09Z 3KM HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST PRODUCT...AS WELL AS THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF.
BY THE AFTN...WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST SNOW BY THAT POINT LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING /BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAMS OBS IN
CENTRAL NY/...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...ESP IN
AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW.
SOME SHELTERED AREAS THAT HAD NO WIND AND HAD MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GOT
VERY COLD THIS MORNING...SUCH AS IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE
IT DROPPED AS LOW AS -13 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WERE NEAR
ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...TEMPS WILL
STEADILY WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS /TEENS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN/.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION. THERE STILL MAY BE A BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT WINDS
SHOULD START TO BECOME LIGHT BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
BELOW ZERO READINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE ADIRONDACKS...GLENS FALLS
AREA...AND SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL SUITE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AMONG THE GFS/NAM/GEM/
WITH THE GEM/12UTC ECMWF BEING DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE QPF.
AT 500HPA MUCH OF THE EASTERN USA IS IN FAST W-NW FLOW WITH
SHORT WVS RACING ACROSS RGN. INITIALLY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER RGN. AIR MASS OVER RGN IS MOISTURE STARVED.
AT SFC A SERIES OF CDFNTS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST SAT NT INTO SUN RESULTS IN INCRG CLOUDS AND SOME -SN AND
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT -SNSH INTO TUG HILL. BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CDFNT 500HPA SHORT WV PAIR DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH RGN MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MORE THAN -SHSN WITH
MAYBE A MODEST ENHANCEMENT BY LK ONTARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
290-300 VECTORS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S IN ITS WAKE INTO RGN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD FAST 500HPA FLOW SHIFTS FM NW TO W THEN SW AS
SHRTS WV DIG A TROF OVER THE E USA THU. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NT.
THE FIRST TWO DAYS ALL THE GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF/HPC)IS IN AGREEMENT. THURSDAY
AGREEMENT GOES OUT THE WINDOW AS DIVERGE REIGNS.
TUES THE LAST 500HPA SHORT WV IN THE NW FLOW PASSES ACROSS RGN
WITH GFS MAINLY FAIR AND ECMWF SUG MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCT -SHSN.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT THE SFC INTO WED EVNG. STILL A TRANQUIL
MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NT.
THU WHILE ALL THE MDLS CARVE OUT OR BRING A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA
TROF INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SFC IS VERY DIFFERENT
BTWN THEM.
OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM KEEP N BRANCH AND S BRANCH DYNAMICS SEPARATE.
GEM PASSES CSTL LOW WELL S OF RGN AND OUT TO SEA. THE GFS DEVELOPS COASTAL
LOW WELL OFF SHORE...OVER AND EAST OF GULF STREAM...WITH AND ONLY
THE 500HPA SHORT WV AND ITS MODEST CLIPPER IMPACTING THE RGN WITH
SOME -SHSN MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEMS WE`VE BEEN HAVING MOST OF THE
WEEK.
HWVR THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS AMONG THE 10 OR SO IN
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE THAT LEAN TWRD THIS SCENARIO. ITS OTHER 10
MEMBERS HAVE 0.4 TO 1.4 IN QPF MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF DESCRIBED BLO.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CSTL LOW OVER THE VA CAPES WED NT...AND
SENDS IT NE TWRD BOS THU NT...RIGHT INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
IMPLYING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE FCA WITH 0.50-0.60 QPF
ACROSS FCA. OVERNIGHT HPC GUID ALSO LEANS TWRD ECMWF SOLTN...BUT
NOT TOTALLY.
THE MDL DIFFERENCES SEEM TIED AS USUAL TO HOW AND WHERE THE
RESPECTIVE MODELS PHASE VARIOUS 500HPA SHORT WVS INTO THE EASTERN
TROF ON THU. WHILE THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENT 6 DAYS OUT...THERE`S AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE GUID AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD WELL BLOW NORMALS AND
END NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS. AS SUCH WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN STRATOCU AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE MOISTURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ONLY SOME FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AROUND 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. MOST SITES LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL BE
DRY OR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STORM MAY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL. ITS TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1008 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
UPDATE TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE. WIND CHILL READINGS
HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME A PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND AND WHAT TO DO WITH THE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED FLOW
OVER THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD TROUGHINESS AND FAST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY. SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
MOVING EAST. TWO STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES ARE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS HAS MODIFIED SOME BUT IS STILL COLD AND MOIST.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF DID THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
THIS WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
FIRST THE MODELS...EVEN THE MESOSCALE ONES...HAVING A HARD TIME THIS
MORNING RESOLVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. SECOND IS THE MODELS DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING
UPPER JET FEATURES AND SURFACE/LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IN REGARDS TO CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE HIGHLIGHT HAVE VERIFIED WITH THE
REMAINING AREA NOT THAT FAR AWAY. CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LET
TEMPERATURES DROP MUCH MORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST WHICH
HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE NIGHT. AM NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
MUCH MORE OF THE ADVISORY VERIFYING BUT ANY SMALL SHIFT OF THE WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEN A
STRONGER LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. GOING BY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. THAT COMBINED WITH THE JET
LIFT IS CAUSING FLURRIES THIS MORNING. ALSO IN THE RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WAS
NOT CAUGHT BY ANYTHING EARLIER BUT NOW THE HRRR HAS RECENTLY CAUGHT
ON TO THIS IDEA A LITTLE. SO WILL HAVE FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG PER
REALITY AND 00Z SOUNDINGS FOR THIS MORNING.
AM THINKING THE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST IF NOT THE
ENTIRE DAY WITH MAYBE THE EXCEPTION IN THE FAR WEST. SO TENDED TO
COOL MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EASTERN PORTION BEING
THE COLDEST.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH STARTS MOVING THROUGH
EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY SO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD START IN DROPPING AND GETTING COLDER.
HOWEVER...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TENDED TO NOT CHANGE THE MINS VERY MUCH. NEXT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
CAN SEE FOG...ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT HAS HAPPENED THIS MORNING...BUT
THINK THE MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO REMOVED
THAT AND KEPT THE FOG.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY START SHOWING
THEMSELVES HEAR. MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION AND STRUCTURE OF A
COMPLICATED JET WHICH HAS DIFFERENT CONSEQUENCES IN THE FORECAST. AT
THIS TIME THE BEST LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET AND PV ANOMALY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SCARCE WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF LIFT...REMOVED PRECIPITATION
FROM THE MORNING AND KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS FLURRIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT PLUS THE
REAL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SO
ALSO KEPT THE NIGHT POPS WHEN CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
UNCERTAINTY BUT THINK POPS MAY BE OVERDONE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH
FOR THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INDICATED 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE...BREEZY
AND MORE LIKELY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
AND IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE DAY. AS SPECIFIED ABOVE THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER WEAKER BOUNDARY/PRELIMINARY COLD PUSH MOVING INTO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS...DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CAN GO
EITHER WAY BUT THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING IN THIS COOLER AIR. CONSIDERING WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...LIKE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD AIR. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE TEMPERATURES AND IN SOME
CASES SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE MODELS BLAST THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH A MODEL OR TWO RETREATING THE FRONT AND THEN
BRING IT BACK THROUGH OR BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SLOWER. AS A
RESULT THERE ARE EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS AND WENT COLDER.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUR AREA TENDS TO
REMAIN BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT JET SEGMENTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHEN
BY LATE IN THE DAY A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS INDICATED. THEN THE
BRUNT OF THIS AND OTHER LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES GET BETTER DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL. SOUNDINGS
START MOISTENING UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND REALLY ONLY BECOME
SATURATED DURING THE NIGHT.
SO BELIEVE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH NEIGHBORS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY. SO MADE TWO ADJUSTMENTS PER
REASONING ABOVE. SPLIT SUNDAY POPS INTO A MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS INTO THE LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. MODELS DISAGREE WHEN IT WILL
HAPPEN...BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
RIGHT NOW THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT RECEIVING SNOW AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND
THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BRINGING WARMER
AIR OVER THE AREA. EVEN IF THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IS FURTHER
WEST...WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...AM THINKING FLURRIES ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND DEEPENS EAST OF
THE AREA WHERE PRECIP. CHANCES WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
OTHERWISE THE LAMINAR NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY NUDGES EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL START OUT AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS THE
COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 959 AM MST FRI FEB 7 2014
A BIT OF A MESSY START TO THE TAF PERIOD REGARDING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FOR BOTH TAF SITES. BOTH KMCK AND KGLD ARE
EXPERIENCING LOW CEILINGS AND HAZE...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITH A BREAK IN
THE CLOUD COVER. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT FOR BOTH TAF
SITES...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH LOW MVFR
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR BOTH TAF SITES FOR
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE
CO...NONE
NE...NONE
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PORTLAND OR
1034 AM PST FRI FEB 7 2014
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS
.SYNOPSIS...THE SECOND SYSTEM IN A ONE-TWO-THREE PUNCH OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR NORTHWEST OREGON IS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE...AND WILL SPREAD
SNOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF OUR NORTHWEST OREGON ZONES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WITH MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AFFECTED. THE THIRD SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR AREA
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEMS IMPACTS WILL REACH. OVERALL A VERY
COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE A TURN
TOWARD MORE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN.
&&
.UPDATE...SNOW IS PROGRESING UP THE VALLEY...AND SPED UP THE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN SOONER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST. ALSO...CAMERAS IN NEWPORT SHOW LIQUID PRECIP AND TEMPS ARE
AROUND 30. EXPECT SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS...AND UP
TO A TENTH INCH HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SILETZ. FARTHER INLAND STILL
THINK SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AS THE RAWS STATIONS ARE
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THAT SAID THE RAP 925 TEMPERATURE IS
TRACKING FAIRLY WELL IF NOT A LITTLE SNOW FOR THE WARM NOSE. IF THE
RAP IS TRUE...THIS WOULD SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUING HEDGING THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION. THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST NEAR FLORENCE SHOULD BE
JUST RAIN BASED ON OBS AND CAMERAS. NOWCAST COMING OUT SOON.
/KMD
REST OF THE MORNING UPDATE UNCHAGED...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. SNOW HAS STARTED TO FALL IN EUGENE BASED ON REPORTS WITH A
FRESH COATING EARLIER AND NOW COMING DOWN HARDER. EXPECT THIS IS LOW
LEVEL FORCED AS THE UPPER FORCING IS STILL A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WHILE SNOW IS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SHOULD BE FOR A
WHILE IN THE SOUTH... AS MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM NOSE AT 925/850
STAYS SOUTH THROUGH 0Z. SO INITIAL CONCERNS FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE
TOO HIGH JUST YET. THAT SAID... CONCERNS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR
FREEZING RAIN/ICING SITUATION AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...COAST RANGE...SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND THE LOWER
VALLEYS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW A THICK DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN WARMER
SURFACE AIR AT THE COAST WHERE IT IS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AT
WALDPORT...YACHATS AND FLORENCE...MEANWHILE OFFSHORE FLOW MAINTAINS
COLDER AIR FROM NEWPORT NORTH. A SIMILIAR STORY IS THE CASE WHERE IT
IS 40 AND RAINING IN ROSEBURG AND 21 IN EUGENE. MEANWHILE...A
TELLING TALE OF WHAT TO MONITOR TODAY MAY BE THE RAWS STATIONS IN
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE. HIGH POINT AND GOODWIN PEAK ARE GOOD
ONES AT JUST UNDER 2000 FT...AND ARE LOCATED AT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
EUGENE. THESE STATIONS SIT AT AROUND 32 DEGREES WITH SIMILAR
DEWPOINT VALUES AND MAINTAIN A WEAK OR A SOUTH WIND. NOW THESE
STATIONS WERE A LITTLE WARMER LAST EVENING WHEN FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN. MEANWHILE VILLAGE CREEK AND WILKINSON RIDGE RAWS JUST A BIT
FARTHER NORTH IN THE COAST RANGE...WHICH ARE LOCATED BETWEEN EUGENE
AND CORVALLIS AND AT 1500 FT ELEVATION...SIT AT 25 AND 26. THIS IS
POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER...EVEN THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A UNIQUE SITUATION IN THAT IT IS NOT COMMON FOR
OUR AREA TO GO FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AND BACK TO SNOW...THUS THE
CONCERN...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A FIRST FOR EVERYTHING. THE MODELS
ARE ALREADY BRINING THE LOWEST LEVEL COLD AIR TOO FAST...BUT AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS IN IT LOOKS LIKE THE COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN IF THE LOW GOES.
SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH OF...BUT THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER NEAR THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND WHERE THE CURRENT DOMINATING SURFACE LOW IS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE JET ENERGY TO THE SOUTH WILL
ALLOW THE LOW MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE AND TO THE SOUTH TO DOMINATE.
WHERE THEY DIFFER IS HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR SPREADS.
THIS MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A BUNCH OF ICE FROM NEWPORT NORTH
WITH THE SECOND PUNCH COMING IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY THAT THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT IN THE VALLEY REMAINS FROM SALEM SOUTH. IF YOU BELIEVE
NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND THE RAW MOS GUIDANCE...EUGENE WILL SWITCH TO
RAIN. DONT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN. MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT
AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE
VALLEY REMAINS FROM SALEM SOUTH. THAT IS NOT A GUARANTEE AS GFS/NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS BRING THE WARM NOSE AWFULLY CLOSE...BUT THE CURRENT
FEELING RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A CHANCE THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS BRING THE WARM NOSE AWFULLY
CLOSE.
NOT TO IGNORE AREAS FARTHER NORTH...PROFILES ARE ALL SNOW,. THERE IS
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH IS MORE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED OFFSHORE BUT WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AS
THE CLASH OF THE COLD AND MILD PACIFIC AIR COMMENCES AGAIN FARTHER
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO GET GOING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN EXPECT BANDING TO OCCUR...LIKELY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. /KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...AGAIN OUR APOLOGIES FOR THE TARDINESS OF THIS
DISCUSSION... THIS SHIFT HAS BEEN VERY BUSY ON MANY FRONTS...BOTH
LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY.
FIRST THINGS FIRST...AS MOST OF US KNOW BY NOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AS MUCH AS A FOOT OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLOSE TO THAT IN THE COAST RANGE. LOW PRESSURE
TOOK THE PERFECT TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT OF MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR OCCLUDING
AS IT MOVED INTO A BURLY ARCTIC AIR MASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THIS SYSTEM HAVE ENDED IN
OUR FORECAST AREA...AS THIS SYSTEM HAS SINCE SHIFTED ITS FOCUS EAST
INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SPOKANE AREA.
THE REASON FOR THE RECAP IS THAT THIS IS ALMOST EXACTLY WHAT WILL
HAPPEN AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND WESTWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC. A VORT LOBE IS POSITIONED NEAR 47N/133W...ALMOST EXACTLY
WHERE THURSDAYS VORT LOBE WAS POSITIONED THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MSAS
ANALYSIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATE A SURFACE REFLECTION VERY NEARBY AT
ABOUT 45N/132W. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH A NARROW PLUME EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ALL THE WAY TO HAWAII. AS A RESULT MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE IMPRESSIVE
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A STRONGER SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EUGENE AREA AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FAR SW
OREGON... THIS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
VORT LOBE TEAMS UP WITH
THIS WILL BE A COMPLEX PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST...WITH COLD AIR
TRAPPED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TO SHOW THE CONTRAST...AT 5 AM THE
TEMPERATURE WAS 21 DEGREES IN EUGENE AND 40 DEGREES IN ROSEBURG.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
SO THIS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE SOON.
USING 4KM UW WRFGFS SOUNDINGS ALONE...IT WOULD SEEM ENOUGH WARM AIR
WOULD ADVECT INTO EUGENE TO PUSH THEIR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S AND
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN MORE
DRAMATIC WARMUP. HOWEVER...AS LONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY REMAIN NORTHERLY...THERE WILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT OF FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. WITH QPF INCREASING
RAPIDLY...WE FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO GO AGAINST MOST GUIDANCE AND
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OUT SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE
COMBINATION THREAT OF SNOW AND ICE. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 20S AT
NEWPORT...SO A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR THEM...AS LONG AS GRADIENTS
REMAIN OFFSHORE IT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO GIVE THEM THE ALL
CLEAR. AREAS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST...TILLAMOOK AND LINCOLN
CITY...WILL STAY SNOW LONGER THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH.
FARTHER NORTH IT IS PERHAPS A BIT EASIER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
COLD AIR IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...AND ALTHOUGH EASTERLY GRADIENTS HAVE
RELAXED THROUGH THE GORGE...THEY WILL RAMP UP AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE PROVERBIAL
FREEZER DOOR OPEN...REPLENESHING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WITH COLD AIR. THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL IS DEEP...PROBABLY ABOUT
4000-6000FT DEEP...SO ANY WARM NOSE TRYING TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO
PORTLAND WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING ANY TEMPERATURES IN
THE COLUMN ABOVE FREEZING. IN FACT...MILDER PACIFIC AIR PUSHING INTO
THE PORTLAND METRO WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS
A SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN MOIST AND MILD PACIFIC AIR AND THE
ARCTIC AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CREATE LIFT AND ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION...THE 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW THIS PRETTY WELL...WHICH THEY
DID WITH YESTERDAYS SYSTEM.
A LOT OF WORDS TO SIMPLY SAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT
TODAY TO THE ONE THAT PLAYED OUT THURSDAY. OVERALL TIMING WILL BE A
FEW HOURS LATER...AND THE TIMING OF THE WARNINGS REFLECT THIS. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE WARMER AIR HAVING
A LITTLE MORE SUCCESS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES ONSHORE.
ANOTHER SIMILAR WAVE IS ON TAP FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THOUGH WITH FAST FLOW AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN THE NE PACIFIC
CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING IS LOW. 06Z GFS/NAM PAINT A SIMILAR
STRIPE OF QPF ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE MOUNTAINS ARE NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...OVERALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE
CASCADES WILL SEE A MUCH-NEEDED BOOST TO THEIR SNOWPACK. THE UW
WRF-GFS...NAM...GEM...GFS...ALL HAVE SNOW MEASURED IN FEET FOR THEM
OVER THE COMING DAYS. AFTER A LONG WAIT...IT APPEARS THE HOPES FOR
SNOW IN THE CASCADES ARE FINALLY COMING TO FRUITION. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REGION BEGINS TO SIT
SQUARE UNDER THE STORM TRACK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. BROAD LOW PRESSURE
WILL SET UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED JUST
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES TO PROGRESS ALONG JET STREAM AND BRING MORE FREQUENT PERIODS
OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AND FEWER PERIOD OF DRY PERIODS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5500
FEET DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PASSING SHORT WAVES PUSH LEADING WARMER
AIR SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. OVERALL...THIS APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
PATTERN FOR PRODUCING SNOW PACKS HIGHER IN THE CASCADES AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW FREEZING. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES. PRECIP NOW
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...MID-DAY TUESDAY/
TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN THURSDAY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELED QPF AMOUNTS VARY...NOT SURPRISINGLY...BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE PACNW
WILL BE IN THE CROSS HAIRS OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED. THUS DO NOT
FEEL OVERLY COMFORTABLE REGARDING THE NATURE OF ANY ONE SPECIFIC
SYSTEM. FORTUNATELY...THERE DO APPEAR TO BE AROUND 12 HOUR BREAKS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. /JBONK
&&
.AVIATION...NEXT ROUND OF SNOW HAS PROGRESSED INLAND ABOUT TO REACH
AS FAR NORTH AS KSLE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS BAND DRIFT NORTH
REACHING KHIO...KPDX...AND KTTD BY 20Z IF NOT A BIT SOONER AND KAST
AN HOUR OR SO LATER. THIS IS ALL FASTER THAN MODELS HAVE INDICATED
AND HAVE ADAPTED TAFS TO MATCH. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE PROBABLE
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE
TRANSITION AT KONP. MODERATE SNOW AT KEUG WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY
WITH THE BEST GUESS OCCURRING AT 22Z AND AT KSLE AT 23Z. EXPECT TO
SEE A TENTH OR TWO OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF THE ONGOING SNOW.
DEEPER EAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH CASCADES SHOULD LIMIT THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FREEZING RAIN DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRST GUESS TODAY MAY SEE KHIO KTTD AND KPDX CHANGE TO FZRA AROUND
09/03 Z SATURDAY EVENING BUT IT APPEARS THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD
END BY THEN. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING ICE IS STILL LIKELY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH THE FIELD
AROUND 20Z AS TODAY`S PRECIP BAND DRIFTS NORTHWARD. PEAK SNOW WILL
INTENSIFY BEGINNING CLOSER TO 00Z WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED 08/00 TO 08/03Z. ALSO EXPECT BLSN TO OBSCURE NEAR SURFACE
VSBY AT THAT TIME. CONTINUE TO EXPECT AROUND 3 INCHES OF TOTAL
ACCUMULATION BY LATER EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE SHOWERY. CURRENT THOUGHTS BRING FIRST FZRA POSSIBILITY
TO KPDX AROUND 09/03Z.
&&
.MARINE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NE PAC...WITH HIGH PRES WILL
INLAND. GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS STRONGER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS ARE GUSTING 20 TO
25 KT OVER THE N WATERS AT BUOY 29 AND WILL APPEAR TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
COVER. NEAR SHORE WINDS ARE NOT SUPPORTING AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH COLDER DENSER AIR KEEPING THE WINDS OFF THE COAST RANGE
ELEVATED UNTIL FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING RAIN IS
OCCURRING NEAR NEWPORT AND WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD UP THE COAST
TODAY...PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR AS KAST BUT MORE LIKELY SEASIDE
AND SOUTH. COULD PICK UP A TENTH OR TWO OF ICE ACCUMULATION. SEAS
HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 25
TO 40 KT TUES...WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 10 FT. /JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER PORTLAND
METRO AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CASCADE
FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN
OREGON-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CASCADES IN
LANE COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
COAST.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER
AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
1010 AM PST FRI FEB 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE SECOND SYSTEM IN A ONE-TWO-THREE PUNCH OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR NORTHWEST OREGON IS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE...AND WILL SPREAD
SNOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF OUR NORTHWEST OREGON ZONES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WITH MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AFFECTED. THE THIRD SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR AREA
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEMS IMPACTS WILL REACH. OVERALL A VERY
COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE A TURN
TOWARD MORE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN.
&&
.UPDATE...SNOW IS PROGRESING UP THE VALLEY...AND SPED UP THE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN SOONER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST. ALSO...CAMERAS IN NEWPORT SHOW LIQUID PRECIP AND TEMPS ARE
AROUND 30.EXPECT SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS...AND UP
TO A TENTH INCH HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SILETZ. FARTHER INLAND STILL
THINK SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AS THE RAWS STATIONS ARE
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THAT SAID THE RAP 925 TEMPERATURE IS
TRACKING FAIRLY WELL IF NOT A LITTLE SNOW FOR THE WARM NOSE. IF THE
RAP IS TRUE...THIS WOULD SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUING HEDGING THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION. THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST NEAR FLORENCE SHOULD BE
JUST RAIN BASED ON OBS AND CAMERAS. NOWCAST COMING OUT SOON.
/KMD
REST OF THE MORNING UPDATE UNCHAGED...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. SNOW HAS STARTED TO FALL IN EUGENE BASED ON REPORTS WITH A
FRESH COATING EARLIER AND NOW COMING DOWN HARDER. EXPECT THIS IS LOW
LEVEL FORCED AS THE UPPER FORCING IS STILL A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WHILE SNOW IS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SHOULD BE FOR A
WHILE IN THE SOUTH... AS MODELS SUGGEST THE WARM NOSE AT 925/850
STAYS SOUTH THROUGH 0Z. SO INITIAL CONCERNS FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE
TOO HIGH JUST YET. THAT SAID... CONCERNS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR
FREEZING RAIN/ICING SITUATION AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...COAST RANGE...SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND THE LOWER
VALLEYS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW A THICK DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN WARMER
SURFACE AIR AT THE COAST WHERE IT IS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AT
WALDPORT...YACHATS AND FLORENCE...MEANWHILE OFFSHORE FLOW MAINTAINS
COLDER AIR FROM NEWPORT NORTH. A SIMILIAR STORY IS THE CASE WHERE IT
IS 40 AND RAINING IN ROSEBURG AND 21 IN EUGENE. MEANWHILE...A
TELLING TALE OF WHAT TO MONITOR TODAY MAY BE THE RAWS STATIONS IN
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE. HIGH POINT AND GOODWIN PEAK ARE GOOD
ONES AT JUST UNDER 2000 FT...AND ARE LOCATED AT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
EUGENE. THESE STATIONS SIT AT AROUND 32 DEGREES WITH SIMILAR
DEWPOINT VALUES AND MAINTAIN A WEAK OR A SOUTH WIND. NOW THESE
STATIONS WERE A LITTLE WARMER LAST EVENING WHEN FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN. MEANWHILE VILLAGE CREEK AND WILKINSON RIDGE RAWS JUST A BIT
FARTHER NORTH IN THE COAST RANGE...WHICH ARE LOCATED BETWEEN EUGENE
AND CORVALLIS AND AT 1500 FT ELEVATION...SIT AT 25 AND 26. THIS IS
POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER...EVEN THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A UNIQUE SITUATION IN THAT IT IS NOT COMMON FOR
OUR AREA TO GO FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AND BACK TO SNOW...THUS THE
CONCERN...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A FIRST FOR EVERYTHING. THE MODELS
ARE ALREADY BRINING THE LOWEST LEVEL COLD AIR TOO FAST...BUT AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS IN IT LOOKS LIKE THE COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN IF THE LOW GOES.
SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH OF...BUT THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER NEAR THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND WHERE THE CURRENT DOMINATING SURFACE LOW IS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE JET ENERGY TO THE SOUTH WILL
ALLOW THE LOW MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE AND TO THE SOUTH TO DOMINATE.
WHERE THEY DIFFER IS HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR SPREADS.
THIS MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A BUNCH OF ICE FROM NEWPORT NORTH
WITH THE SECOND PUNCH COMING IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY THAT THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT IN THE VALLEY REMAINS FROM SALEM SOUTH. IF YOU BELIEVE
NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND THE RAW MOS GUIDANCE...EUGENE WILL SWITCH TO
RAIN. DONT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN. MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT
AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE
VALLEY REMAINS FROM SALEM SOUTH. THAT IS NOT A GUARANTEE AS GFS/NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS BRING THE WARM NOSE AWFULLY CLOSE...BUT THE CURRENT
FEELING RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A CHANCE THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS BRING THE WARM NOSE AWFULLY
CLOSE.
NOT TO IGNORE AREAS FARTHER NORTH...PROFILES ARE ALL SNOW,. THERE IS
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH IS MORE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED OFFSHORE BUT WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AS
THE CLASH OF THE COLD AND MILD PACIFIC AIR COMMENCES AGAIN FARTHER
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO GET GOING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN EXPECT BANDING TO OCCUR...LIKELY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING.
AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION TO BE UPDATED WITH THE TAF
PACKAGE. /KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...AGAIN OUR APOLOGIES FOR THE TARDINESS OF THIS
DISCUSSION... THIS SHIFT HAS BEEN VERY BUSY ON MANY FRONTS...BOTH
LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY.
FIRST THINGS FIRST...AS MOST OF US KNOW BY NOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AS MUCH AS A FOOT OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLOSE TO THAT IN THE COAST RANGE. LOW PRESSURE
TOOK THE PERFECT TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT OF MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR OCCLUDING
AS IT MOVED INTO A BURLY ARCTIC AIR MASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THIS SYSTEM HAVE ENDED IN
OUR FORECAST AREA...AS THIS SYSTEM HAS SINCE SHIFTED ITS FOCUS EAST
INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SPOKANE AREA.
THE REASON FOR THE RECAP IS THAT THIS IS ALMOST EXACTLY WHAT WILL
HAPPEN AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND WESTWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC. A VORT LOBE IS POSITIONED NEAR 47N/133W...ALMOST EXACTLY
WHERE THURSDAYS VORT LOBE WAS POSITIONED THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MSAS
ANALYSIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATE A SURFACE REFLECTION VERY NEARBY AT
ABOUT 45N/132W. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH A NARROW PLUME EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ALL THE WAY TO HAWAII. AS A RESULT MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE IMPRESSIVE
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A STRONGER SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EUGENE AREA AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FAR SW
OREGON... THIS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
VORT LOBE TEAMS UP WITH
THIS WILL BE A COMPLEX PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST...WITH COLD AIR
TRAPPED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TO SHOW THE CONTRAST...AT 5 AM THE
TEMPERATURE WAS 21 DEGREES IN EUGENE AND 40 DEGREES IN ROSEBURG.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
SO THIS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE SOON.
USING 4KM UW WRFGFS SOUNDINGS ALONE...IT WOULD SEEM ENOUGH WARM AIR
WOULD ADVECT INTO EUGENE TO PUSH THEIR TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S AND
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN MORE
DRAMATIC WARMUP. HOWEVER...AS LONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY REMAIN NORTHERLY...THERE WILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT OF FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. WITH QPF INCREASING
RAPIDLY...WE FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO GO AGAINST MOST GUIDANCE AND
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OUT SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE
COMBINATION THREAT OF SNOW AND ICE. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 20S AT
NEWPORT...SO A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR THEM...AS LONG AS GRADIENTS
REMAIN OFFSHORE IT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO GIVE THEM THE ALL
CLEAR. AREAS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST...TILLAMOOK AND LINCOLN
CITY...WILL STAY SNOW LONGER THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH.
FARTHER NORTH IT IS PERHAPS A BIT EASIER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
COLD AIR IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...AND ALTHOUGH EASTERLY GRADIENTS HAVE
RELAXED THROUGH THE GORGE...THEY WILL RAMP UP AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE PROVERBIAL
FREEZER DOOR OPEN...REPLENESHING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WITH COLD AIR. THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL IS DEEP...PROBABLY ABOUT
4000-6000FT DEEP...SO ANY WARM NOSE TRYING TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO
PORTLAND WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING ANY TEMPERATURES IN
THE COLUMN ABOVE FREEZING. IN FACT...MILDER PACIFIC AIR PUSHING INTO
THE PORTLAND METRO WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS
A SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN MOIST AND MILD PACIFIC AIR AND THE
ARCTIC AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CREATE LIFT AND ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION...THE 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW THIS PRETTY WELL...WHICH THEY
DID WITH YESTERDAYS SYSTEM.
A LOT OF WORDS TO SIMPLY SAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT
TODAY TO THE ONE THAT PLAYED OUT THURSDAY. OVERALL TIMING WILL BE A
FEW HOURS LATER...AND THE TIMING OF THE WARNINGS REFLECT THIS. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE WARMER AIR HAVING
A LITTLE MORE SUCCESS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES ONSHORE.
ANOTHER SIMILAR WAVE IS ON TAP FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THOUGH WITH FAST FLOW AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN THE NE PACIFIC
CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING IS LOW. 06Z GFS/NAM PAINT A SIMILAR
STRIPE OF QPF ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE MOUNTAINS ARE NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...OVERALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE
CASCADES WILL SEE A MUCH-NEEDED BOOST TO THEIR SNOWPACK. THE UW
WRF-GFS...NAM...GEM...GFS...ALL HAVE SNOW MEASURED IN FEET FOR THEM
OVER THE COMING DAYS. AFTER A LONG WAIT...IT APPEARS THE HOPES FOR
SNOW IN THE CASCADES ARE FINALLY COMING TO FRUITION. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REGION BEGINS TO SIT
SQUARE UNDER THE STORM TRACK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. BROAD LOW PRESSURE
WILL SET UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED JUST
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES TO PROGRESS ALONG JET STREAM AND BRING MORE FREQUENT PERIODS
OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AND FEWER PERIOD OF DRY PERIODS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5500
FEET DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PASSING SHORT WAVES PUSH LEADING WARMER
AIR SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. OVERALL...THIS APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
PATTERN FOR PRODUCING SNOW PACKS HIGHER IN THE CASCADES AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW FREEZING. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES. PRECIP NOW
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...MID-DAY TUESDAY/
TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN THURSDAY HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELED QPF AMOUNTS VARY...NOT SURPRISINGLY...BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE PACNW
WILL BE IN THE CROSS HAIRS OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED. THUS DO NOT
FEEL OVERLY COMFORTABLE REGARDING THE NATURE OF ANY ONE SPECIFIC
SYSTEM. FORTUNATELY...THERE DO APPEAR TO BE AROUND 12 HOUR BREAKS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. /JBONK
&&
.AVIATION...WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS...WITH IFR AND MVFR OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND MOSTLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR ALONG THE COAST.
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS AM...THOUGH INTERIOR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR THIS AM. HOWEVER...SNOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN AFTER 18Z OVER LANE COUNTY...AND SPREAD N.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK INTO IFR AFTER 20Z...WITH MTNS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN S OF A KONP TO KEUG LINE AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...FEW FLURRIES AROUND THIS AM...BUT OVERALL
DRY WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS UNTIL
12Z OR 13Z. BY AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH INTO OPS AREA FROM
THE S AND SW. LIKELY TO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE ON THU
AFTERNOON...WITH IFR AFT 21Z AND PERSISTING TO 08Z. LIKELY 2 TO 4
INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT AIRPORT DURING THAT TIME. ROCKEY. &&
.MARINE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NE PAC...WITH HIGH PRES WILL
INLAND. GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS STRONGER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS MAY GUST AGAIN AT 20
TO 25 KT OVER THE N WATERS NEAR SHORE LATE TODAY THROUGH SAT...BUT
FEEL MAY NOT QUITE REACH THAT. SO WILL OPT GO WITH NO ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME. SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 25
TO 40 KT TUES...WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 10 FT. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM SAT FOR...
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 6 PM SAT FOR...
CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TODAY TO 10 AM SAT FOR...
LOWER COLUMBIA.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 6 PM SAT FOR...
CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING EUGENE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM TODAY FOR...
CENTRAL OREGON COAST...INCLUDING NEWPORT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 AM SAT FOR...
NORTH OREGON COAST.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM SAT FOR...
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING SALEM
COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM TODAY TO 10 AM SAT FOR...
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING PORTLAND METRO AREA.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM TODAY TO 10 AM SAT FOR...
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
CLARK COUNTY INCLUDING GREATER VANCOUVER AREA
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TODAY TO 10 AM SAT FOR...
I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY INCLUDING KELSO
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
AREA OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD PERSIST OVER SE TX THROUGH
SUNSET AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. RECENT
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY LAST THROUGH 19Z AT KCLL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BIG HOUSTON AIRPORTS NORTHWARD AND
MVFR SOUTHWARD. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS.
CEILINGS LOOK TO LIFT AT KCLL AND KUTS...AND POSSIBLY FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH. IF SO...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE LATEST NAM INDICATES THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND GIVEN THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE...EXPECT IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH 18Z.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THOUGH WARMING...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME RETURNS WHICH COULD
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...MOST LIKELY AS DRIZZLE. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND...AGAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE...MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT. ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL
BE LIGHT BUT STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
THREAT OF WET BULBING ALSO A CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ANY
PRECIP WHERE READINGS ARE CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WENT AHEAD
AND EXTENDED WW ADVSY UNTIL NOON WHICH MATCHES UP W/ NEIGHBORING
OFFICES TOO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE AND RADAR
TRENDS AND POSSIBLY FURTHER EXTEND THIS ADVISORY IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO ADJUST TEMPS TO MATCH
CURRENT TRENDS. NAM12, TX TECH WRF & HRRR SUGGEST INCREASING LIGHT
PRECIP COVERAGE 2-9 PM ACROSS THE REGION AS INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE BECOMES FELT AND LLVLS FURTHER SATURATE. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 36 32 63 43 66 / 40 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 40 34 63 47 68 / 40 40 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 40 60 53 65 / 30 40 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...
MADISON...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1133 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.AVIATION...
KLBB AND KCDS SHOULD BOTH REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL PREVAIL AT KLBB THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP FAIRLY QUICKLY...WHILE KCDS WILL SEE A LOW
DECK HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF OR ALL OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH
WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
UPDATE...
REPORTS OF SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE
TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SEEMS TO
CORRELATE WELL WITH THE 12Z MAF RAOB SHOWING A DISTINCT WARM NOSE
FILTERING IN ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATOP A WELL BELOW FREEZING
BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECTING A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP
TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WITH MAINLY 30S
EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE LAST IN A STRING OF MINOR TROUGHS WILL ENTER THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS A.M.
INDICATED PERIODS OF UNMEASURABLE SNOW FROM AMARILLO SOUTH TO
LUBBOCK. RECENT HRRR AND NAM APPEAR ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF
SUSTAINED LIFT TAKING SHAPE FROM THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE FAR
SRN SOUTH PLAINS NEAR SUNRISE. THIS REGION IS ALREADY BENEFITING
FROM PROLONGED /ALBEIT WEAK/ ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STOUT 120 KNOT UPPER JET. BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING APPEARS A BIT TOO HARD TO
COME BY IN THIS SETUP. SO WE HAVE PULLED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FAVOR
OF FLURRIES BEFORE NIXING THIS MENTION ALTOGETHER BY THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE WILL TUG
MILDER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAPROCK...BUT STUBBORN S-SE WINDS OFF
THE CAPROCK AND A LINGERING SNOW PACK IN PLACES WILL KEEP HIGHS HERE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER. EXPECT A BIT MORE UNIFORMITY TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA.
LONG TERM...
AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...WITH A BROAD MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST...RIDGE WEST...AND WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. TWO
PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOMETIME SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MONDAY/TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM ACROSS THE AREA...AS BREEZY
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 60S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND. FROM HERE...THE
BIG QUESTION MARK REMAINS THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH. OPTED TO
SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS... AS DAYTIME FROPAS TEND
TO BE SLOWED BY DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF THEM. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING WESTERLIES WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY... WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A SHARP COOLDOWN.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED AS WELL THAT WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
SUNDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT MONDAY
AND MOST LIKELY TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE REGARDING THE TIMING OF
YET ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW
ALOFT. THE GFS CURRENTLY DEPICTS A FASTER... MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED...AND WEAKER WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...WITH A TIMING DIFFERENCE
OF ALMOST A FULL 24 HOURS. OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE GFS
DEPICTION... WITH ENHANCED POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEGINNING
MONDAY EVENING. ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MOST OF THE RAIN MENTION...AS LATEST
FORECAST TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. STILL...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THIS UPPER WAVE DEPARTS...
BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ALLOW A PLEASANT WARMING TREND
TO CARRY US INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 27 59 29 59 24 / 0 0 0 0 10
TULIA 24 57 29 57 20 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 24 59 30 60 21 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 27 62 31 62 25 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 26 60 30 60 24 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 28 66 32 66 26 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 28 61 30 63 25 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 21 53 23 42 22 / 0 0 0 0 10
SPUR 21 51 24 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 25 59 30 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1023 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014
.UPDATE...
REPORTS OF SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE
TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SEEMS TO
CORRELATE WELL WITH THE 12Z MAF RAOB SHOWING A DISTINCT WARM NOSE
FILTERING IN ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATOP A WELL BELOW FREEZING
BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECTING A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP
TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WITH MAINLY 30S
EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -SN AT LBB THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDS AND BREEZY SW WINDS BY MIDDAY BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH. AT
MOST WE EXPECT ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW...SO WILL FOREGO AN AIRPORT
WX WARNING.
VFR CONDS WILL BE DELAYED AT CDS UNTIL AT LEAST MID-AFTN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THRU THE EVENING
UNTIL DRIER SWLY WINDS FINALLY EMERGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE LAST IN A STRING OF MINOR TROUGHS WILL ENTER THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS A.M.
INDICATED PERIODS OF UNMEASURABLE SNOW FROM AMARILLO SOUTH TO
LUBBOCK. RECENT HRRR AND NAM APPEAR ON TRACK WITH AN AXIS OF
SUSTAINED LIFT TAKING SHAPE FROM THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE FAR
SRN SOUTH PLAINS NEAR SUNRISE. THIS REGION IS ALREADY BENEFITING
FROM PROLONGED /ALBEIT WEAK/ ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STOUT 120 KNOT UPPER JET. BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING APPEARS A BIT TOO HARD TO
COME BY IN THIS SETUP. SO WE HAVE PULLED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FAVOR
OF FLURRIES BEFORE NIXING THIS MENTION ALTOGETHER BY THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE WILL TUG
MILDER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAPROCK...BUT STUBBORN S-SE WINDS OFF
THE CAPROCK AND A LINGERING SNOW PACK IN PLACES WILL KEEP HIGHS HERE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER. EXPECT A BIT MORE UNIFORMITY TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AS WESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA.
LONG TERM...
AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL...WITH A BROAD MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST...RIDGE WEST...AND WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. TWO
PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOMETIME SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER WAVE MONDAY/TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM ACROSS THE AREA...AS BREEZY
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 60S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND. FROM HERE...THE
BIG QUESTION MARK REMAINS THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH. OPTED TO
SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS... AS DAYTIME FROPAS TEND
TO BE SLOWED BY DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF THEM. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING WESTERLIES WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY... WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A SHARP COOLDOWN.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED AS WELL THAT WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
SUNDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT MONDAY
AND MOST LIKELY TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE REGARDING THE TIMING OF
YET ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW
ALOFT. THE GFS CURRENTLY DEPICTS A FASTER... MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED...AND WEAKER WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...WITH A TIMING DIFFERENCE
OF ALMOST A FULL 24 HOURS. OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE GFS
DEPICTION... WITH ENHANCED POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEGINNING
MONDAY EVENING. ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MOST OF THE RAIN MENTION...AS LATEST
FORECAST TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. STILL...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THIS UPPER WAVE DEPARTS...
BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ALLOW A PLEASANT WARMING TREND
TO CARRY US INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 41 27 59 29 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 38 24 57 29 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 39 24 59 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 43 27 62 31 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 41 26 60 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 42 28 66 32 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 42 28 61 30 63 / 60 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 29 21 53 23 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 34 21 51 24 55 / 60 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 34 25 59 30 55 / 60 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31