Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/05/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT BUT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...WELL EAST OF
PHOENIX. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE
FOCUSED EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY TODAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TWO VORT MAXES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE APPARENT ON
SATELLITE...ONE ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AND ANOTHER ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA. LATEST HI-RES HRRR INDICATES THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN-MOST VORT IN SE AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
QUITE LOW. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND AS
LOW AS THE LOWER TEENS NEAR GILA BEND.
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT...VIRGA HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN A FEW SPOTS.
POPS WERE LOWERED FOR THIS EVENING...THOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW SPRINKLES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MINOR SHORT WAVES PASSING
OVER OUR AREA EMBEDDED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS ONLY SLIGHT WARMING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE IDEA OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EXITING SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM. THE
ECMWF IS TAKES IT DEEPER INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS WITH
THE GEM BEING EVEN WEAKER AND FASTER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
RESPECT TO ITS 12Z RUN AS WELL AS ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM 12Z. THE
GFS IS CLOSER TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT THAT IS OFTEN THE CASE GIVEN
THE SMALLER NUMBER OF PERTURBATIONS IN THE GEFS. TAKING A BLENDED
APPROACH...AND IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...NUDGED
POPS UPWARD FOR FRIDAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY OVER ZONE
24. TURNS OUT THAT DESPITE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS
THERE ARE SIMILARITIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF...AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY THOUGH. BY THAT SAME TOKEN...DECREASED POPS OVER OUR
WESTERN AREAS PER MODEL AGREEMENT. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY OF THE MODELS WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
OVERLAND TRACK. BUT WITH COLD AIR AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE...PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL BE IMPROVED. THE COLDEST
MORNINGS SHOULD BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH UPPER 20S POSSIBLE ON
THE COLDEST LOW ELEVATION DESERTS...NEAR 30 POSSIBLE COLDEST METRO
LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT
LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO PHOENIX AREA
WILL REMAIN INTO TONIGHT. BROKEN CLOUDS WITH DECKS BETWEEN 8-10K
FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO JUST FEW TO SCATTERED BY THIS
EVENING BUT LAST INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AND SHOULD GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND ANY CLOUDS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL ONLY BE FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND HAVE BASES
AROUND 10K FEET. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITIES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON A RATHER LARGE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX...POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER
DESERTS AS WELL. COULD ALSO SEE SOME RIDGE-TOP BREEZINESS WITH THIS
LOW ON FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWING THIS LOW NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITIES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS EUREKA CA
429 AM PST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AROUND MID-WEEK AS
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PRESENTLY DIVING SSE OVER THE
AREA IN THE BROADER SCALE TROF WHICH EXTENDS FROM W CANADA TO S
CA. THIS FEATURE APPEARED TO LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AS IT
HEADED INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A LINE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPED AS IT APPROACHED THE S REDWOOD COAST AND A FEW MORE
SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR AND N OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THE LATEST RUC HAS A FAIR HANDLE ON THIS PRECIP...AND
HAVE USED IT TO POPULATE THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE POP AND CLOUD
GRIDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WANE AS WE PROCEED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON WED. MODELS ARE STRETCHING THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW END CHANCE
CATEGORY OVER LAND WITH HIGHEST POPS AIMED MORE AT THE S 1/2 OF
THE AREA. THIS IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WX PLAYER OF THE WEEK WILL WARM FRONTAL RAINS
WHICH TAP INTO A DECENT MOISTURE FEED FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
THIS WEEKEND. SOME HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE STORM TOTALS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SO FAR THIS
WINTER. HOWEVER...MODELS DO BUILD A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE W COAST
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN FACT...THIS RIDGE WILL PLAY A LARGE
PART IN HOW MUCH MOUNTAIN SNOWS OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SOME GOOD SNOWS WILL OCCUR...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON
THE RISE AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE E MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE LAST TO WARM...AND COLDER AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN SOME OF
THE HIGH VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN
PRODUCTS EITHER TODAY OR TONIGHT. /SEC
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT KCEC...KACV AND KUKI. PATCHY FOG MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KUKI EARLY THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
HIGHER WINDS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TODAY
DUE TO INCREASING WINDS.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM TODAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1255 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
ADDED COLORADO ZONE 21 TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
REMOVED SOME LOWER VALLEY ADVISORIES AND EXTEND SOME HIGHER VALLEY
ADVISORIES UNTIL 5 PM.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
VERY SLICK ROADS IS THE THEME THIS MORNING WITH 2-5 INCHES
REPORTED ACROSS THE GRAND VALLEY. AT 830 AM THE RADAR LOOKS
CONVECTIVE WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS SHIFTING
QUICKLY EAST OF A LINE FORM NORWOOD TO DEBEQUE. SO PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT TRAVEL ON I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
THE TROUGH IS OVERHEAD AND LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FINAL VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW-SE BACKSIDE JET LIFTS THROUGH SE UTAH-
WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON ADDING SOME DYNAMICAL LIFT.
MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT WAS LEAKING INTO NW COLORADO THIS
MORNING WITH LADORE RAWS WINDS GUSTY FROM THE NORTH. THE 12Z NAM
AND RAP MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH NW COLORADO TODAY
AND HANG UP ALONG THE ROAN-FLATTOPS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEN
RETREATING NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT AS THE VORT MAX/JET PASS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE LATEST MODELS ARE PRODUCING
AROUND 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE ROAN/FLATTOPS/GRAND MESA/NW SAN
JUANS WITH AROUND 3 INCHES ON THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. MOST
VALLEYS LIMITED TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES...THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL YIELD SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
AFTER A BREAK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SNOWFALL RETURNS TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
NO CHANGE TO THE VARIOUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...DESPITE THE SLOW START TO THE SNOW IN GRAND
JCT AS OF 300 AM.
UPPER LOW OVER SRN NM WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY
WHILE ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NW CURVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WY. THIS
WILL TEND TO PIVOT THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO
OVER CO TODAY WHILE ALLOWING AN ARCTIC FRONT TO SAG IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER BROAD UPPER DIVERGENCE
TOWARD 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE NAM/EC MODELS FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE Q-G VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMUMS
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG IN THE MODELS AS
IN PREVIOUS RUNS TO REALLY FOCUS HEAVIER SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...TEMPS
IN THE MOIST LAYER REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AND OROGRAPHICS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE LIFT.
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES IN FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE TINGE TO THE SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ON THE DECLINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DOESN`T CLEAR THE NORTH UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER...SO SNOW SHOULD PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER THE NRN
MTNS TONIGHT. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO MANY VALLEYS TONIGHT FROM
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND DESPITE COLDER AIR BRINGING IN LOWER
DEWPOINTS. EXPECT SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS NW CO.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DOWN DAY FOR PRECIPITATION. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING THE FLOW INTO
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE
MTNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS FOR THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY FOR SE UT AND FAR SW CO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS AN ELONGATED E-W TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CWA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE EXAMINATION OF UPPER LEVELS INDICATES
MINIMAL JET SUPPORT AND ATTENDANT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHES TO
CAUSE SNOW FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS
BEING FAVORED. AS THIS OCCURS...A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CLOSES OFF OVER WASHINGTON STATE FRIDAY MORNING AND DUE TO ITS
CYCLONIC FLOW...WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
PAC NW AND REACH ERN UT AND WRN CO. ATTM...BOTH GFS AND EC NOT
REALLY SHOWING AN APPRECIABLE BREAK BETWEEN THESE TWO WX MAKERS
WITH PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ON THE
LOW SIDE BEFORE PICKING UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHLIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AS HIGHLIGHTS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR CURRENT
STORM.
A VERY BRIEF REPRIEVE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER SHOT OF WINTER WX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH
EVENT SO FAR OUT...BLENDED POPS GIVING SCHC TO CHC -SN FOR MAINLY
HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 850 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
EXPECT IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON FOR VALLEY TAF SITES WHILE MTN
TAFS ESPECIALLY KSBS...KASE...KEGE AND KTEX WILL LIKELY SEE LOW
CIGS/VIS ALL DAY WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNSET.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UT AND
WESTERN CO THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD VFR AND ONLY LOCAL MTN
OBSCURATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUD CIGS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE VFR THOUGH MTN TOPS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING BELOW 7500
FEET FOR COZ017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 7500
FEET FOR COZ017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING COZ010-012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING
COZ009-013-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
COZ001-002-007-008-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 6000
FEET FOR COZ021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING COZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ005.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON UTZ023-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING BELOW 7500
FEET FOR UTZ028.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 7500
FEET FOR UTZ028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 AM MST MON FEB 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST MON FEB 3 2014
NRN AND SRN STREAM HAS MERGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AERA...BASICALLY ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR WITH STEADY LIGHT
SNOW PERSISTANT ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENS
THIS AFTERNOON AND FALLS APART LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SUGGESTING SOME UPDRAFTS
WITH CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF SNOW. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CHANGE FROM A
STRATIFORM SNOWFALL TO TERRAIN HUGGING SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS THIS TRANSITION BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW WILL BE
EXPANDING AS THE UPSTREAM NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH SLIDES TOWARD UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME SERN
UTAH. WILL BE CONSIDERING ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT NO DECISION HAS BEEN MADE YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MST MON FEB 3 2014
A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA WILL SWING ACROSS SRN AZ/NM TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE SPREADING SNOW INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. BEST Q-G FORCING STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WARM ADVECTION ON THE 295K/300K THETA
SURFACES AHEAD OF THE LOW TAPERS OFF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER
MODELS INDICATE A DEEP MOIST LAYER MOVING OVERHEAD. THE FAIRLY
BROAD THOUGH WEAK OMEGA AND SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW SHOULD STILL
GENERATE MTN SNOW TODAY WITH AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS SWRN VALLEYS IN
THE UPSLOPE FLOW. FORCING SHOULD ALSO TAP POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY FOR SOME HEAVIER EMBEDDED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN DISTURBANCES TONIGHT AS THE SRN CA LOW
HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NE UT/NW CO
ON TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AND THE FOCUS OF SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. MOISTURE CONTENT LIMITED WITH THIS NW
SYSTEM AS MODELS SHOW 700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNDER 3 G/KG...BUT
TEMPS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH GIVEN GOOD
DYNAMIC AND FRONTAL FORCING. THIS SHOULD DRIVE SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY
FLOORS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. LATER SHIFTS CAN REASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY HIGHLIGHTS.
CONTINUED WITH THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS. ADDED THE
ROAN/TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS (CO ZONE 3) AND THE ELKHEAD/PARK MTNS (CO
ZONE 4) AS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...STARTING AT NOON FOR ZONE 3
AND THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 4. THE ELKHEAD/PARK MTNS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY BUT BELIEVE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH THE NORTHWEST DISTURBANCE. THINKING
5-10 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE ADVISORIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MST MON FEB 3 2014
MODELS ALL SHOW THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ELONGATING TO THE
WEST AND DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING...WITH A
COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AND
THEN PLUNGING SOUTH ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE. A VORT MAX AND JET
SPEED MAXIMA OFF THE OR COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED MOVES SOUTH OVER
NRN CA AND NRN NV...INDUCING A WAVE OVER NV ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA WED
NGT AND THU MORNING. THIS LOW KEEPS WHAT WILL BE A WARM FRONT
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AND FRI...THEN AS IT SLIDES SE FRI
AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT ITS COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRI NGT AND SAT.
FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
MOUNTAIN PRECIP...AND PERIODS OF VALLEY PRECIP. SAT NGT AND SUN
SHOULD SEE MUCH LESS CLOUD AND PRECIP AS THE STRONG TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DRIER RIDGING AND NW FLOW ALOFT TAKE
OVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST MON FEB 3 2014
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PERIODIC OR INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY SKY
COUNTRY AIRPORTS. PASSING BANDS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATED TAF SITES AS WELL. THEIR WILL BE POCKETS OF VFR THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
WITH SNOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST TUESDAY COZ010-012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR
COZ017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST TUESDAY COZ009-013-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
TUESDAY COZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET
FOR COZ003.
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR
UTZ028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1001 PM MST SUN FEB 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 PM MST SUN FEB 2 2014
UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES OF WESTERN COLORADO AND THE MOUNTAINS OF
SE UTAH. THIS WAS MAINLY DONE BECAUSE THE ONSET TIMES FOR SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST PERIOD...LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE WARNED MOUNTAIN ZONES STILL SEEM
REASONABLE.
WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OTHER ZONES WHERE WE PRESENTLY
HAVE BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST SUN FEB 2 2014
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS BLEND TOGETHER TO FORM THE NEXT WINTER STORM
TO IMPACT THE REGION. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA ON
MONDAY. A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS OVER WEST CENTRAL COLORADO
WHERE THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MEGRE. HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING LATE
TONIGHT. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS THE THREAT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN
SLOPE MOUNTAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT DYNAMICAL ASCENT
DOES NOT REACH SOUTHWEST COLORADO UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
EXPANDS AND ENCOMPASSES THE MOUNTAIN AREAS BY NOONTIME MONDAY.
STATIC STABILITY IS LOW WITH MODEL DATA DEPICTING SOME CAPE
VALUES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPING SNOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME
UPDRAFTS THAT SHOULD ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMICAL
COMPONENTS. SURFACE PROGS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...BELIEVE
THAT HOISTING THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS THE PRUDENT THING TO DO.
HIGH COUNTRY QPF VALUES SUPPORT AREAS OF WARNING CRITERIA BEING
REACHED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME SNOW TO EXPAND INTO THE
LOWER VALLEYS AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST SUN FEB 2 2014
AN AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC/ALASKAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP A BROAD...ACTIVE TROF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS WEEK. THE PACIFIC JET IN THE BASE OF
THIS TROF WILL DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEFORE ARCING BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. MORE ORGANIZED PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL FORCE THE JET TO BECOME MORE CYCLONICALLY CURVED NEAR THE 4
CORNERS AT EACH END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL ADD SOME
ADDITIONAL ASCENT OVER OUR REGION. WITH THE JET TO OUR
SOUTH...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. PIECES OF UNORGANIZED AND ORGANIZED ENERGY AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE PUSHED ALONG WITH THE JET WILL ALSO BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OUR CWA MOUNTAINS WITH VALLEYS LIKELY
TO SEE SOME WHITE STUFF AS WELL.
TUESDAY MORNING THE FIRST OF THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEMS WILL BE OVER
THE CWA. THE PACIFIC WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY SUNRISE...BUT THE UPSTREAM ARCTIC WAVE WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
THE WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY. 290K
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THIS WAVE BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND PWAT TOPS OUT AT NEAR .25 INCH. THIS IS HALF OF LAST
WEEK BUT WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW NEG EPV NEAR MOUNTAIN LEVEL
WITH WESTERLY OROGRAPHICS HELPING TO RELEASE THIS INSTABILITY.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL BE GIVING THE TRUE ARCTIC FRONT
A SHOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE MID TEENS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40 AFTER MID DAY. THIS FRONT WOULD ALSO SERVE AS
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SNOW IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WHERE
DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW DENSITY
SNOW PRODUCTION.
A SHORT LULL CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE. THETA SURFACES REVEAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ENTRAINING IN THE FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS THROUGH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY LOOKS TO KEEP LIGHT SNOW PROCESSES GOING...WITH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY BOOSTING RATES AT TIMES. IT COULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MANY AREAS BUT AT THIS TIME UNSURE OF IMPACTS
SUITED FOR WINTER HEADLINES. LARGE SCALE ASCENT...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALL GET A STRONG BOOST BY FRIDAY AS AGAIN WEST COAST
ENERGY MERGES OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW THE REGION THROUGH GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS STORM IS MUCH COLDER AND NOT AS MOIST BUT
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THE LOWER DENSITY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO PILE
UP. THERE IS ALSO A DEEPER FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING...STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 959 PM MST SUN FEB 2 2014
CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE 4 CORNERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A COMPACT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG
THE CA COAST SWINGS ACROSS AZ ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL 09Z TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR OVER THE SAN
JUANS MTNS BY 12Z-14Z MONDAY INCLUDING KTEX...AND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z MONDAY. KASE/KRIL/KEGE/KMTJ MAY SEE PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AFTER 18Z MONDAY FROM PASSING -SHSN...AND KGJT HAS A 40%
CHANCE OF -SN. KVEL WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 11 PM MST TUESDAY
COZ009-013-018-019.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 11 PM MST TUESDAY ABOVE
7500 FEET FOR COZ017.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 11 PM MST TUESDAY
COZ010-012.
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 11 PM MST TUESDAY ABOVE
7500 FEET FOR UTZ028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRP
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1017 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE
THIS WEEK INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
*** SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ***
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SAME FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF ANY SNOWFALL TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS MARYLAND AND PA
AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
EXPECT PRECIP TO QUICKLY ARRIVE TO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL STARTING TO REACH CT AND WESTERN MA BY AROUND
09Z.
AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED THIS WILL BE MAINLY AN ALL SNOW
EVENT TONIGHT WITH A GOOD THUMP OF SNOW AT THE ONSET OF THIS
SYSTEM. THERE MAX AMOUNT OF LIFT IS WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION
AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AS WELL EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
REGION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR BETWEEN 9Z TO 12Z...AHEAD OF THE
MORNING COMMUTE. 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE IN
THE LINE OF OUR THINKING...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM STILL IS THE
FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION AND BRING THE WARM NOSE IT TO FAR NORTH AS
WELL. WONDER IF IT IS STILL RECEIVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THIS
RUN AS PER THE 12Z AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
*** HEAVY SNOW FOR THE WED MORNING COMMUTE ***
*** SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR ***
* MODEL GUIDANCE/OVERVIEW...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON PARENT LOW MOVING INTO OH VALLEY TONIGHT...
THEN FILLING/WEAKENING AND GIVING WAY TO A NEW AREA OF LOW
PRES/CYCLOGENESIS OFF DELMARVA WED AM...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NANTUCKET LATE WED. MAIN MODEL ISSUE WAS THE STRENGTH AND
LATITUDE POSITION OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL JET TOMORROW WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE 12Z NAM APPEARED TO BE A
NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH ITS 850MB JET MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND STRONGER
THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN THE NAM OFFERING
A WARMER SOLUTION. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES AS LIGHTNING BECOMES WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS WE DISCARDED THE NAM AND FOLLOWED
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS DOESN/T RESULT IN MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING SNOWFALL AND PTYPE. HENCE
HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
* TIMING...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 2 AM AND
5 AM FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SAY BY 6-7 AM THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SNOW WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO
AN INCH PER HOUR. SNOW WILL THEN BECOME MUCH LIGHTER BETWEEN NOON AND
2 PM AS DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA WHERE PRECIP MAY TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AS SNOW GROWTH REGION DRIES OUT. FOR THE AFTERNOON
STEADIER SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN MA /NORTH OF MA
PIKE/ INTO SOUTHWEST NH WHERE COMMA-HEAD ROTATES THRU THIS REGION.
THUS MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE MUCH MORE HAZARDOUS THAN THE LATE
DAY DRIVE. THE EXCEPTION AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAY LINGER UNTIL 4-7 PM.
ALSO LIGHTER OCEAN EFFECT SNOW OR MIX SNOW/RAIN MAY LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN MA AS NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES.
* P-TYPE...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON MID LEVEL WARMING FOCUSED AROUND 800 MB AND
THE OC ISOTHERM IN THIS LAYER LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE CT/MA/RI
BORDER /JUST SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE/ AROUND 18Z...AND THEN SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS RAIN/SNOW/SLEET LINE WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AND
COMING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AROUND 14Z/15Z. DESPITE THIS TRANSITION
PERIOD FROM 15Z-18Z MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL PRIOR TO THE
CHANGEOVER. THUS A FRONT END THUMP OF HEAVY SNOW BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MA
PIKE INTO SOUTHWEST NH.
* QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS...
ORIGINS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOW UP NICELY ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GULF STATES
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A ROBUST CLOSED WAVE THAT OPENS UP AND RACES
NORTHEAST AS IT ENTERS VERY FAST CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES. DESPITE SYSTEM BECOMING VERY PROGRESSIVE IT EJECTS A
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF +3 STD PWATS FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WED. THIS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE COMBINES WITH MODEST FGEN ON
THE NOSE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL JET ALONG WITH GOOD QG FORCING FROM
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO YIELD WIDESPREAD QPF OF 0.75 TO 1.0
INCHES. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THESE VALUES FROM 12Z ECMWF/GFS AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THIS CORRESPONDS TO A LARGE SWATH OF 7-10 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF MA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 /INCLUDING GREATER BOSTON AREA/ INTO
SOUTHWEST NH. THIS HEAVY SWATH MAY EXTEND INTO NORTHERN CT AND RI
PENDING EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF TRANSITION TO SLEET IN RESPONSE TO
MID LEVEL WARMING.
MUCH OF THE OMEGA DURING THE MORNING IS LOCATED IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION /-12C TO -18C/. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST TO LARGE SNOW
FLAKES /DENDRITES/ YIELDING HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
/SLR/. THEREFORE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...SAY 12-14 INCHES.
ALSO AT 12Z MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST BANDING SIGNATURE ACROSS
NORTHERN CT-RI INTO THE MA PIKE AREA. HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LACKING
SO ANY BANDING WILL YIELD MODEST SNOWFALL RATES.
NOT A BLOCKBUSTER STORM BUT HIGH IMPACT WITH ABOUT 6 HRS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW COINCIDING WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE.
AMOUNTS TAPER DOWNWARD TO 5-8 INCHES FOR HFD/PVD/TAN...THEN DOWNWARD
TO 3-6 INCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. REALIZE THESE AMOUNTS ARE SUB WARNING CRITERIA BUT THE
COMBINATION OF 3-6 INCHES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT JUSTIFIES A WINTER STORM WARNING.
* FORECAST CONCERNS...
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST ON HOW FAST WARM TONGUE ALOFT TRAVERSES
NORTHWARD AND HOW MUCH QPF FALLS BEFORE THIS OCCURS. A SLOWER
TRANSITION YIELDS MORE SNOW...QUICKER TRANSITION LESS SNOW. ALSO
TIMING OF DRY SLOT IS CRITICAL AS HEAVY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AS SNOW
GROWTH REGION DRIES OUT...LIKELY AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
* ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AND MON
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM /BASICALLY
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK/. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS DOWN.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TROUGHING
SETS UP ONCE AGAIN IN THE GREAT LAKES. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS /12Z/ AND ECMWF /00Z/ ARE SPREAD APART IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH BOTH ARE INDICATIVE
OF A FAIRLY STRONG /980-990MB/ SYSTEM. THE GFS TRACK DEVELOPS THE
LOW FARTHER NORTH OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND THEN TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE ECMWF TRACK DEVELOPS THE LOW
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SC COAST AND THEN TRACKS IT
NORTHEASTWARD OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK. LOOKING AT BOTH THE GEFS
AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS WELL AS READING THE EXTENDED
DISCUSSION FROM WPC...THERE IS A HUGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK
OF INSIDE RUNNER TRACKS TO TRACKS OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
AT THIS RANGE...WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE DRY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
REGION INTO THE MARITIMES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT OVER THE THREE DAYS SO EXPECT LITTLE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS STATED ABOVE THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
THEREFORE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM. THERE
IS DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THERE BEING A STRONG STORM IN THIS TIME
FRAME BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS. THERMAL PROFILES DO
LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
STORM...WITH THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT THERE TO
BE A FEW MORE FACETS WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING WIND AND POSSIBLY
SOME COASTAL FLOODING...THOUGH THIS WILL BE TEMPERED BY
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE...FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE NAM APPEARS TO
BE A WARM OUTLIER AND HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING CONVECTION OVER
GULF STATES.
CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE ON TIMING AND PTYPE.
AFTER 00Z...
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION BETWEEN 07Z-10Z /2AM-5AM/ FROM WEST TO
EAST. HEAVY SNOW /AN INCH OR GREATER PER HOUR/ ARRIVES BETWEEN
09Z-12Z /4AM-7AM/ FROM WEST TO EAST.
WEDNESDAY...
HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
CONTINUING UNTIL 15Z-18Z...THEN TAPERING TO LIGHTER SNOW
THEREAFTER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE /I-90/
INTO SOUTHWEST NH WHERE MODERATE SNOW MAY LINGER UNTIL 21Z-00Z.
SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND
POSSIBLY SLEET AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE 15Z-18Z. SNOW
TOTALS OF 6-12 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTION OF CT-RI INTO CENTRAL-NORTHERN MA INCLUDING THE
MA PIKE AND INTO BOSTON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. HEAVIEST SNOW 10Z-16Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. HEAVIEST SNOW 09Z-15Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE GRADUALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXCEPTION MAY BE ON CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE OCEAN EFFECT
CLOUDS AND SNOW MAY LINGER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER STORM. SNOW LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
QUIET/TRANQUIL WEATHER AND THEN NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SNOW OVERSPREAD THE WATERS 4-7 AM FROM WEST TO EAST.
WED...
LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. SNOW CHANGES TO
SLEET AND THEN RAIN DURING THE MORNING...EXCEPT STAYS ALL SNOW NORTH
OF CAPE COD. VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MARITIMES. SEAS
SLOWLY DIMINISH.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FIVE FOOT SEAS LINGER JUST OUTSIDE OUR COASTAL
WATERS BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.
SUNDAY...SEAS BUILD QUICKLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTAL
WATERS. NORTHEASTERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-
026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ023.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
015.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ235-237-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1250 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONT WILL PASS WELL
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE AROUND NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1245 PM UPDATE...
STEADY LIGHT SNOW HAS MADE IT A BIT FURTHER N THAN ANTICIPATED
WITH VSBYS DOWN TO A MILE UP TO ROUTE 2. BUT HEAVIER SNOW CONFINED
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. BEST BANDING SIGNATURE ASSOCD WITH THE
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS MOSTLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES EXTEND NWD INTO
CT/RI AND SE MA WHERE MODERATE SNOW NOTED. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
AND HRRR SHOW STEADIEST SNOW THROUGH 21Z THEN TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST.
HIRES WRF AND RAP QPF 0.25" CT/RI/MA BORDER TO 0.50" ALONG THE S
COAST WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.10" ROUTE 2 NWD. ADJUSTED THE 1-2"
AMOUNTS NWD TO MASS PIKE REGION...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. SLR
CLOSER TO 8-10:1 NEAR THE S COAST WHERE HEAVIER QPF WHICH
SUGGESTS UP TO 4-5" POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA THIS EVENING. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SNOW
OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS IN THIS
AREA DURING THE START OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT AND MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY. EXPECT A CLEARING TREND
TONIGHT AND FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT TUESDAY...WHEN MIXED...WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
- BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS AND DRY FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
- ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER STORM AROUND SUNDAY
*/ OVERVIEW...
CONFLUENCE OF THE SPLIT-FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
SEEMINGLY PREVAILS AS RIDGING OVER SIBERIA KEEPS THE POLAR LOW IN
PLAY ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS TROUGHING
IS PREFERRED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. INDIVIDUAL PACIFIC- AND POLAR-
ORIGIN DISTURBANCES WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
STORMS BOTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
*/ MODEL PREFERENCE...
A CONSENSUS BLEND WAS PREFERRED AS ALL FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MILLER-B STORM-TYPE SETUP FOR THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...ENSEMBLE
MEANS WERE GREATLY CONSIDERED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
*/ DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE ELONGATES THROUGH THE CONFLUENCE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS TO INVOKE A MILLER-B STORM-TYPE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. WITH CERTAINTY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS ALONG THE
WESTERN APPALACHAINS...IT RENEWS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE IN
VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA / SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE
AS AN ATTENDANT H85 CLOSED LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
TAKING PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MIDDAY. THE
WARM-MOIST CONVEYER BELT IS DRAWN NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE H85
LOW THE EAST-WEST TRACK OF WHICH IS A ROUGH APPROXIMATION OF
ANTICIPATED THERMAL-PACKING AND DEFORMATION OCCURRING WITH HEIGHT
FURTHER NORTH. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL / ISENTROPIC FORCING IS
STRONGEST WITHIN REGIONS OF GREATEST DEFORMATION...AND SUCH
SIGNALS OCCURRING BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET /CENTERED
AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY/ WILL YIELD STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE /COLLOCATED WITH REGIONS OF STEEP H3-7 LAPSE RATES/
RESULTING IN PSEUDO EAST-WEST MESOSCALE SNOW-BANDING ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. WHILE COLD-AIR
DAMMING IS LIKELY TO PROCEED DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE TRANSITION...THE DRAINAGE FLOW IS NOT FROM ARCTIC SOURCE
REGIONS. THUS ANTICIPATING SNOW-TO- LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 1:10
TO 1:15 DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS /LESS OF A FLUFFY SNOW AND MORE
OF A WET SNOW/.
YET WITH WOBBLES AMONG THE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TRACK
AND POSITIONING OF THE LOW THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILES /THICKNESSES/ AND WHERE SPECIFICALLY
BOTH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. WHILE THE
BROAD-SCALE PATTERN IS APPARENT THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS
IRONING OUT THE SMALL DETAILS.
GETTING A FEEL FOR POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...TOP 5 CIPS ANALOGS BASED OFF
THE 03.0Z GFS EXHIBIT AN EAST-WEST SWATH OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 12+ CENTERED AROUND THE MA-VT-NH BORDER
/CONSIDERING THOSE ANALOGS WITH AN H85 CLOSED LOW AND SIMILAR
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PATTERN/. YET EVEN THE VARIETY OF OBSERVED
SNOWFALLS EXHIBITS THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT OUTCOMES. SREF
MEANS SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR 1-INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
AS WELL AS GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING WINTER WEATHER
WARNING CRITERIA FOR AREAS AROUND THE MA-NH-VT BORDER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICING TO THE SOUTH. BUT ALSO DECIPHERED FROM THE SREF
IS THE DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE TRANSITION ZONE AS EMPHASIZED BY
THE LOWERED PROBABILITIES AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER REGION FOR ALL
WINTER WEATHER POSSIBILITIES.
SO WITH THE FORECAST...HAVE WEIGHED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
WET-BULB WITH EQUAL CONSIDERATION TOWARDS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT.
TAKING A CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH WEIGHS MORE TOWARDS THE NON-ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...ANTICIPATING ALL PRECIPITATION TO START OFF AS SNOW
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION NORTH OF A
WINTRY MIX /SNOW-SLEET-FREEZING RAIN/ FROM THE SHORELINE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...TO ROUGHLY THE MASS-PIKE BY MIDDAY. FROM THE
MORNING INTO MIDDAY...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF RHODE ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN-TIER OF BRISTOL AND
PLYMOUTH COUNTY MA AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE AN EAST-TO-WEST SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX TO
THE AROUND AND TO THE SOUTH THAT MAY SEE AROUND 8 TO 10 INCHES...
PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ICING ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OR TWO WITH
THIS FORECAST. WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF STORM IMPACTS AND THE
POTENTIALS NOTED ABOVE WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS /INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND/.
PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS CONCERNING
POTENTIAL COASTAL HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERS TO THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
ANTICIPATE BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS.
NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND...
CONTINUED VARIABILITY AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN HANDLING ENERGY
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. GREAT DISCREPANCIES APPARENT WITH
REGARDS TO A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND WHETHER AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE MEAN OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEANS IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN...BUT WITH THE WIDE DISPLACEMENT AND
DISPARITY BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...HAVE LITTLE TO
NO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WITH VFR/MVFR TO THE N. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SNOW COVERED
RUNWAYS EXPECTED ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TUE...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT. IFR-VLIFR WITH
+SN. WINTRY MIX /SLEET AND FZRA/ POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS AROUND
THE MA-CT-RI BORDER WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR SOUTH-COASTAL
TERMINALS. BY MIDDAY ACTIVITY SWINGS OUT WHILE TRANSITIONING BACK
TO SNOW FOR THOSE TERMINALS OTHERWISE. INCREASING E/NE FLOW
STRONGEST ALONG THE E/SE SHORE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVING VFR. -SN LINGERS INITIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST TERMINALS WITH
POTENTIAL IFR IMPACTS. OTHERWISE CIGS/VSBYS LIFTING. BRISK W/NW
WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS...BUT THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE OUTER
WATERS. PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE
WATERS SOUTH OF BOSTON. POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS REDUCED TO 1-2 MILES
IN RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MASS.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. ANY RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE OUT TO
SEA EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH
FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOW INITIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX BY
MORNING TO PLAIN RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WATERS.
SHOULD REMAIN A SNOW TO WINTRY MIX FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. BRISK
E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS TURNING N LATE. INCREASING WAVE
HEIGHTS OVER ALL WATERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON GALES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. W/NW FLOW BRISK AT TIMES AND COLDER AIR
BUILDING OVER THE WATERS ALONG WITH WAVE ACTION WILL PRESENT A SMALL
THREAT FOR FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH TODAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SPLASHOVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY STRONG...SO SURGE VALUES OF LESS THAN 1 FOOT ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY STORM...EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. HIGH TIDES WILL BE LOWER THAN
ASTRONOMICAL PEAK PRESENTLY ONGOING. SURGE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1
FOOT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST SHORES. CONSIDERING ALL FACTORS
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ020>022.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ003>007.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
747 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GA WILL BEGIN LIFTING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS WITH WEDGE
CONDITION HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. NEALY STEADY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
RISE TOWARD DAWN AS THE WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST. GFS/NAM AND RUC BUFKIT INDICATING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG WORDING AT THIS TIME.
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST TOWARD
MORNING.
EVENING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR BRINGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LIFTING NORTH AWAY
FROM THE REGION. SPC HAS EASTERN AREAS IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT
WEDGE IN PLACE SHOULD HANG IN LONG ENOUGH BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TO KEEP ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT STABLE. THINKING ANY THUNDER WILL BE
EAST TOWARD THE COAST SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SC
MIDLANDS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHUT OFF PRECIP WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS A SMALL THREAT FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT LEAST 2 SHORTWAVES ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TIMING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY STILL IN QUESTION FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
FOR THE FIRST FEATURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE...ECMWF AND GFS DRY WITH THIS
FEATURE. GOING FORECAST HAS 30 POPS MOST AREAS...TRENDED A LITTLE
DRIER TO 20 POPS WITH NAM BEING WET OUTLIER. BETTER SHOT AT RAIN
APPEARS TO BE THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT YET CONVERGED ON STRENGTH AND TIMING
YET. CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROVIDE
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS COMMON NORTH OF A RETREATING WEDGE
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO LESS THAN A MILE BY AROUND 06Z. ALSO
DURING THIS TIME...STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PROMOTE WIND SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 40 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
ROTATE FROM ENE TO SW WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND 18Z.
EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR EXPECTED
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
658 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
...DENSE FOG AND RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND WEST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS DUE TO AT LEAST ONE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIFFICULT AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND DECAYS.
EARLY EVENING ISALLOBARIC FALLS NOTED ACROSS THE CORE OF THE
WEDGE SIGNAL THE DECAY OF THE WEDGE HIGH IS IN PROGRESS WITH
WINDS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO VEER. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY COME
THROUGH IN PIECES. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY JUMP OVER
THE COLDER...MORE DENSE SHELF WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RISE LATE AS THE SECOND AND MORE ROBUST THERMAL FRONT ADVECTS
NORTH. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
AND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON VARIOUS ASPECTS OF THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL 1-3 MORE DEGREES
BEFORE LEVELING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
OUTPUT SUCH AS THE RAP AND H3R ARE MUCH SLOWER IN THE DEPICTION OF
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHILE THEY REMAIN IN THE MID 60S IN THE
SAVANNAH-LUDOWICI CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED LOWS DOWN IN A FEW LOCATIONS
PER CURRENT THERMAL TRENDS...BUT STILL SHOW TEMPERATURE RISING
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FORM MIDNIGHT ON. BY SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER-MID 60S JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY PIN DOWN...BUT TRENDED TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO A RAP/H3R BLEND.
FOG...FOG IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN A NUMBER OF AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SEA FOG ALREADY AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS FROM
HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH TO SAINT SIMONS ISLAND. LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING AS STRATUS BUILD DOWN PROCESSES
TAKE HOLD...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW LOW VSBYS WILL BECOME.
MODELS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE 35-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY LIMIT
THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL TO AREAS EAST OF I-95 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND U.S. 17 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE MORE OF A SEA FOG
INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE OBSERVED
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. SINCE SEA FOG HAS ALREADY PENETRATED AREAS
TO THE INTRACOASTAL...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED
NORTH AND WEST TO INCLUDE INLAND CHATHAM...INLAND BRYAN...INLAND
MCINTOSH AS WELL AS COASTAL JASPER AND BEAUFORT AND EXTENDED UNTIL
5 AM. THE ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO COASTAL
COLLETON...TIDAL BERKLEY AND CHARLESTON LATER THIS EVENING AS SEA
FOG DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND.
RAIN CHANCES...HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND ARE LIKELY PICKING
UP MORE ON THE DRIZZLE. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY TO 20-40 PERCENT...
HIGHEST EAST OF I-95 WHERE THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT WILL BE
OBSERVED. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR DRIZZLE WHERE SHOWERS DO NOT
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AROUND DAYBREAK THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
AREA GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXITING THE COAST BY 7 PM. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT A SOLID/STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA BUT AT LEAST NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. SHEAR LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT INSTABILITY
IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE. THE BEST COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SC COASTAL AREA NEAR CHARLESTON WHERE
THERE IS A 5 PERCENT RISK AREA OUTLINED BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.
DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR
SOME FOG AROUND DAYBREAK INLAND AND SEA FOG OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC
WATERS...THE LATTER OF WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S INLAND.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING
RAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING UPPER FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE UPPER JET. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 50S MOST AREAS EXCEPT LOWER 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 40S
NEAR THE COAST.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RISK OF MORE
OVERRUNNING RAINFALL...HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
50S MOST LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THIS MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD HAS DECREASED THANKS TO INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES
OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE MODELS SEEMED TO BE CONVERGING ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM 24 HOURS AGO...THEY ARE
NOW QUITE DIFFERENT. THE ECMWF HAS GONE FROM A LOW TRACK ACROSS
THE UPSTATE AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO NOW BEING JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A PAIR OF LOWS
MOVING THROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY PHASE AND BECOME A SINGLE LOW OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA LINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STILL
QUITE WET...THOUGH PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY NOW. THE GFS IS VERY DRY
AND WOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND WERE TO HIGHLIGHT
SATURDAY A BIT MORE FROM A RAINFALL STANDPOINT. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT BOTH KCHS/KSAV OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS
AND/OR CIGS LIKELY DROPPING BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND POSSIBLY
AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. OPTED TO HOLD CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS GIVEN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET COULD KEEP CIGS/VSBYS UP
JUST A TAD...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS
COULD EASILY DROP BELOW 1/2SM AND 200 FT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MAINTAINED WIND SHEAR IN BOTH
TERMINALS FROM ROUGHLY 02-03Z TO 11-12Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER 20Z. LIMITED
IMPACTS TO MVFR FOR NOW WITH A MENTION OF TSRA...BUT LOWER
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FRI-SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SEA FOG IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SO THE MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AND EXTENDED THROUGH 5 AM. KEPT THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE HARBOR LATER THIS EVENING. VSBYS WILL
BE 1/4 NM OR LESS...AND CLOSE TO ZERO IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.
THE WATERS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND AND A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY. AN
INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND WILL RESULT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ENHANCED BEFORE THE STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL
WATERS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD LATE AND WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN MORE AS A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET ENTERS THE WATERS
FROM THE WEST LATE. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AND
APPROACH 6 FT IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY...THEN IN NORTHERN SC
WATERS LATE. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS STARTING EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERN SC WATERS WHEN THE LOW LVL JET PASSES OVER THE WATERS
LATE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF IT IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR WINDS/SEAS DURING THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS
WILL FALL BACK BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...THOUGH REMAINING ELEVATED
THANKS TO AN INCREASING NORTHEAST GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA FOG IS PROBABLE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. MUCH WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHAT DEVELOPS
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IF FOG GETS GOING IT WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S MOVE ACROSS THE COOL SHELF WATERS.
AS WINDS VEER TO MORE WESTERLY LATE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN...ANY
LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ116>119-
138>141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ048-051.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
948 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS
SHOWERS. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE UPSTATE/NRN MIDLANDS SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL GA. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR WERE GOOD IN SHOWING THAT THE
SHOWERS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
900 AM TO 1000 AM TIME FRAME. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASING THEREAFTER...THIS ALSO SEEMS TO BE THE
TREND LOOKING AT THE PAST HOUR OF RADAR DATA. SATELLITE TRENDS
WITH THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS SHIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUPPORT THE MODEL FORECAST OF A LOSS OF UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. WE
FORECASTED LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST PART AND JUST CHANCE POPS IN
THE EAST PART TODAY.
SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH H85 WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. THE NAM KEEPS SURFACE-BASED LI/S GREATER THAN 1 AND
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MID-LEVEL
CAPPING. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY RISING H5 HEIGHTS TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. BASED ON THE GFS LAMP
AND THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND EXPECTED MIXING BELIEVE SOME
WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. WE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE RAIN CHANCE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT BUT IS LIKELY TOO WARM TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE
PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER ECMWF MOS AND
FORECASTED LIKELY POPS BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATED LOWER POPS AND THIS MAY BE
CORRECT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST WEDNESDAY IS LOW. THE MODELS SHOW
JUST WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS SO AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM START...
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70.
THE MODELS SHOW BRIEF DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...BUT A
RETURN TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DUE TO MIXING AND CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AROUND 14Z TO 15Z WITH
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE INDICATED SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO CROSS
THE TAF SITES IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME-FRAME. BY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOP
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WEDGE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. WEDGE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
600 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS AND MIXING SHOULD
LIMIT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS
SHOWERS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR INDICATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
WEST PART OF THE FORECAST DURING THE 900 AM TO 1000 AM TIME FRAME.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASING
THEREAFTER. SATELLITE TRENDS WITH THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS SHIFTING
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUPPORT THE MODEL FORECAST OF A
LOSS OF UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. WE FORECASTED LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST
PART AND JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST PART TODAY.
SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH H85 WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. THE NAM KEEPS SURFACE-BASED LI/S GREATER THAN 1 AND
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MID-LEVEL
CAPPING. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY RISING H5 HEIGHTS TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. BASED ON THE GFS LAMP
AND THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND EXPECTED MIXING BELIEVE SOME
WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. WE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE RAIN CHANCE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT BUT IS LIKELY TOO WARM TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE
PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER ECMWF MOS AND
FORECASTED LIKELY POPS BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATED LOWER POPS AND THIS MAY BE
CORRECT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST WEDNESDAY IS LOW. THE MODELS SHOW
JUST WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS SO AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM START...
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70.
THE MODELS SHOW BRIEF DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...BUT A
RETURN TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DUE TO MIXING AND CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AROUND 14Z WITH SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE
INDICATED SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE 18Z-21Z TIME-FRAME. BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WEDGE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. WEDGE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
335 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS AND MIXING SHOULD
LIMIT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS
SHOWERS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR INDICATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
WEST PART OF THE FORECAST DURING THE 900 AM TO 1000 AM TIME FRAME.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASING
THEREAFTER. SATELLITE TRENDS WITH THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS SHIFTING
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUPPORT THE MODEL FORECAST OF A
LOSS OF UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. WE FORECASTED LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST
PART AND JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST PART TODAY.
SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH H85 WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. THE NAM KEEPS SURFACE-BASED LI/S GREATER THAN 1 AND
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MID-LEVEL
CAPPING. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY RISING H5 HEIGHTS TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. BASED ON THE GFS LAMP
AND THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND EXPECTED MIXING BELIEVE SOME
WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. WE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE RAIN CHANCE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT BUT IS LIKELY TOO WARM TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE
PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER ECMWF MOS AND
FORECASTED LIKELY POPS BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATED LOWER POPS AND THIS MAY BE
CORRECT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST WEDNESDAY IS LOW. THE MODELS SHOW
JUST WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS SO AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM START...
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70.
THE MODELS SHOW BRIEF DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...BUT A
RETURN TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL
EXPECTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE.
DUE TO MIXING AND CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT WORST
EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AROUND 14Z
WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE INDICATED SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE TAF
SITES IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME-FRAME. BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WEDGE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEDGE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
325 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS AND MIXING SHOULD
LIMIT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS
SHOWERS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR INDICATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
WEST PART OF THE FORECAST DURING THE 900 AM TO 1000 AM TIME FRAME.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASING
THEREAFTER. SATELLITE TRENDS WITH THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS SHIFTING
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUPPORT THE MODEL FORECAST OF A
LOSS OF UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. WE FORECASTED LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST
PART AND JUST CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST PART TODAY.
SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH H85 WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. THE NAM KEEPS SURFACE-BASED LI/S GREATER THAN 1 AND
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MID-LEVEL
CAPPING. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY RISING H5 HEIGHTS TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. BASED ON THE GFS LAMP
AND THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND EXPECTED MIXING BELIEVE SOME
WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. WE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE RAIN CHANCE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT BUT IS LIKELY TOO WARM TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE
PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER ECMWF MOS AND
FORECASTED LIKELY POPS BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATED LOWER POPS AND THIS MAY BE
CORRECT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST WEDNESDAY IS LOW. THE MODELS SHOW
JUST WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS SO AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM START...
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70.
THE MODELS SHOW BRIEF DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...BUT A
RETURN TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL
EXPECTING SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 10Z-11Z AS
INDICATED BY MANY OF THE MODELS. RESTRICTION MAY BE PRIMARILY DUE TO
CIGS RATHER THAN VSBY. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 14Z
WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HAVE INDICATED SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE TAF
SITES IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME-FRAME. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WEDGE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEDGE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
958 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE EVENING UPDATE INCLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND
SPEEDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH TONIGHT AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL. LOW
OVERCAST WILL BUFFER JUST HOW COLD WE GET BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN -15 AND -25 BY MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH 8 OR 9 AM. THE WIND IS NOT CAUSING
VISIBILITY ISSUES UP NORTH AND THERE IS LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED TO
FALL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS NOT NEEDED BUT OPEN AREAS MAY SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER WAVE IS LIFTING MAINLY
EAST SO WE WILL MISS OUT ON THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FOR THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT BUT THE RAP AND THE NAM HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE
SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA SO WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 4 TO 6 MORE
HOURS OF MODERATELY ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. RADAR IS SHOWING A
DEFORMATION ZONE TRYING TO SET UP BUT IT IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AND REALLY HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING
ESTABLISHED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT BUT THE WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE BLOWING ALL NIGHT AND PUSHING THE SNOW AROUND. THE
SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL DICTATE THE HEADLINES TOMORROW AS THE WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
SNOW ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WITH WIDE SPREAD
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO ONE MILE OR LESS DUE TO SNOW. GENERAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE DES MOINES METRO REGION. CURRENT SNOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD QG FORCING AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH AND GOOD MOISTURE OVERRUNNING INTO THE REGION. THE BULK OF
THIS FORCING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
THUS HAVE NOT HAD THE PEAK SNOW RATIOS YET.
THE WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO TWO DEFINED
DEFORMATION ZONES WITH THE PRIMARY TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH A SECONDARY
DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 30. THE DEPTH OF THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE LAYER. THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WITH RANGE FROM NEAR 950 MB TO 600 MB BY 6 PM. SNOW
RATIOS WILL APPROACH 20 TO 1 FOR A PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW FALL RATES EXCEEDING ONE INCH PER HOUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FOCUSED ON THE HIGHWAY 30 TO
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDORS. THEREFORE OVERALL EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL
RATES NEAR ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR INCREASING TO ONE INCH PER HOUR
FOR A PERIOD. DUE TO THIS...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS LIKELY
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAVE LIFTED TO WINTER STORM WARNING
TO INCLUDE BOONE...STORY AND MARSHALL COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DRIVES SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERAL HOURS OF NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH IS EXPECTED CAUSING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE NEW FLUFFY SNOW. POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPS
FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS MASON CITY AND WAVERLY THAT ALREADY HAVE
SNOW IN PLACE BUT ARE OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY. FINALLY WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL DIP TO 20 TO 25 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. HAVE OPTED TO
NOT ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR THIS. MAY BE ABLE TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR WIND CHILLS AND AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW...IF IT DEVELOPS NORTH.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH LINGERING SNOW CHANCES TOMORROW AND
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/SREF
TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY...THEN GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDED BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLE FLURRIES TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SKIRTS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND KEEPS IOWA WITHIN THE CAA REGIME. THE 850MB
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO -20C BY 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS
LOOK TO RANGE IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW RANGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. ESPECIALLY WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 12 TO 18 BELOW ZERO RANGE.
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH AS THE 12Z MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND ALLOWS FOR SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW BY FRIDAY. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE WAA DEVELOPS PAST 06Z.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ECMWF
IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
SATURDAY. THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ABOVE THE DENDRITIC LAYER
BUT THE MCW/ALO/DSM GFS SOUNDINGS DEEPLY SATURATED IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 750MB BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS...SO BLSN SEEMS
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CAA CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND AN EVEN
COLDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS PLANTING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER IOWA BY 12Z MONDAY. TRENDED COLDER FOR LOW
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...05/00Z
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
AREAS OF SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH 12-15Z. THERE
WILL BE LESS SNOW FURTHER NORTH BUT STRONG WINDS SHOULD STILL REDUCE
VSBYS IN BLSN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF IOWA. NORTHERN IOWA WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR
BUT ONCE BLOWING SNOW STARTS WILL SEE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.
SFC WIND WILL REMAIN N TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15KTS AFT 18Z BUT MAY STILL BE GUSTY ACROSS EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BOONE-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-JASPER-
LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR AUDUBON-
BLACK HAWK-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HARDIN-SAC-TAMA-WEBSTER.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CERRO GORDO-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
319 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. A ZONALLY ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES INTO MINNESOTA WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY AS THE COL
BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS TRANSECTS THE STATE. THESE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A WEDGE OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS REFLECTED IN THE 12Z/18Z NAM AND 18Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA.
THE LATEST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
WINTER STORM TOMORROW MORNING BY ABOUT 4-6 HOURS...WHICH ISN`T
SURPRISING GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AS
IT MOVED INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA LAST NIGHT. THE 300 MB WAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AFTER 06Z AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...BUT DISJOINTED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AS IT
REACHES THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT 12Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOISTURE ALREADY POOLING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA AFTER
06Z.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RIBBON OF 800-850
MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR HAS GREATLY BACKED OFF ON THE OVERNIGHT QPF...MOSTLY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER. IN
FACT...THE QPF THAT IS BEING GENERATED BY THE NAM MAY JUST BE AN
ARTIFACT OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND COULD VANISH BY THE 00Z RUN.
THE GFS 280K ANALYSIS ALSO AGREES WITH THIS THINKING. DESPITE
SHARP ASCENT FROM 880 TO 800 MB OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA...MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED WITH CDEFS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 50 TO 150 MB.
THUS...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REVOLVED
AROUND WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT OVER THE
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PLUME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE NAM IN BACKING
OFF ON POPS SUBSTANTIALLY...AND THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014
THE WINTER STORM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS AN INTERESTING
STORM ON MANY LEVELS. IT WILL BRING WITH IT SEVERAL ELEMENTS OF A
WINTER STORM...SNOW THEN WIND FOLLOWED BY BITER COLD. LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE ONGOING FROM A WEAK WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
ARE SOME QUESTIONS REMAINING FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS TO HOW QUICKLY
WE CAN SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE AND HOW FAR SOUTH THAT WILL OCCUR.
THERE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH
18Z OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...NEAR THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHILE DECENT FORCING LIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF A BREAK...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM.
ONE CONCERN IS THAT MOST OF THE FORCING THAT OCCURS HAPPENS ABOVE
THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND WE STILL HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH SATURATION AT
18Z. BY 21Z THOUGH WE SATURATE TO AT LEAST 700 MB AND SOME FORCING
DOES MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THIS
IS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. AS YOU GO TOWARDS THE I-80
CORRIDOR THE FORCING IS NOT AS GOOD FOR AS LONG A PERIOD OF TIME
BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.
AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL MOVE FROM
ABOUT 14 TO 1 CLOSER TO 18 OR 19 TO 1. THIS WILL HELP GIVE HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE SNOW SHOULD BE FLUFFY AND EASILY BLOWN
AROUND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE WIND WITH IT BUT AGAIN THE WIND WILL NOT
BE EXTREMELY STRONG NOR WILL IT BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST
SNOWFALL. SO WHILE NOT A PERFECT SITUATION IT SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS TRAVEL... ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTH. UP
TOWARDS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CONDITIONS ARE STILL GOOD BUT NOT AS GOOD
AS FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM AND BY
THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 INCHES ON THE GROUND. SINCE TRAVEL
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AS IT WILL HAPPEN
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE I HAVE PUT THE WINTER STORM WARNING UP TO
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE TO SEE IF SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS PAN OUT BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND DURING THE DRIVE
HOME WARRANTING THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL BUT WILL STILL SEE
BRISK WINDS AND COLD TEMPS. IN FACT WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
WIND CHILL ISSUES BEYOND THE WINTER STORM. I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 20 AND HIGHWAY 30.
THESE AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND
COMBINED WITH SOME WIND I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL
ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEYOND TUESDAY...MID WEEK WILL BE BITTER COLD WITH SUB ZERO LOWS AND
SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS. BY FRIDAY A STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
TEMPERATURES...WHILE STILL COLD...WILL MODERATE INTO THE TEENS.
NONE OF THE MODELS NOW MATURE THIS INTO A CLOSED LOW BUT THEY STILL
VARY ON THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE AND THUS TIMING ISSUES ARISE AS
THE MORE DIGGING THAT OCCURS THE SLOWER THE WAVE LIFTS OUT. THE GFS
IS STILL THE MOST BULLISH IN BRINGING PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH WHILE
THE EURO KEEP IT FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW I KEEP THE CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO LOW VFR LEVELS TOWARDS
SUNRISE TOMORROW. STORM SYSTEM OUT TO THE WEST HAS SLOWED AND WILL
BE WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...SO HAVE IMPROVED THE
TAF FORECASTS FOR TUE MORNING WITH CONFIDENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS LOW. STILL EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE WEST
AFTER 09Z THAT COULD LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ADAIR-CASS-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-POLK-
POWESHIEK-WARREN.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-MARSHALL-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MONROE-RINGGOLD-
TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SKOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
856 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
EVENING. OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
LATEST HRRR...CONSSHORT AND NAM GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT HAS WIDESPREAD -10 TO -15...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS
-20...TEMPERATURES BY THE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THOUGHT THIS WAS A LITTLE EXTREME SO TEMPERED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
CONSSHORT AND THE LATEST NAM. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WATCHING WIND
CHILLS VERY CLOSELY AS WE COULD APPROACH TO BRIEFLY EXCEED WIND
CHILL WARNING CRITERIA IF THESE TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE WINTER STORM IS BEGINNING TO RELEASE ITS GRIP ON THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS EVENING. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS
WELL AS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL REDUCE
THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE.
DECIDED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE MILE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. ISSUED A
NOWCAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE STILL
MAY BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF VISIBILITIES AT TO JUST BELOW ONE
MILE.
IN OTHER NEWS...TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WENT AHEAD AS PLANNED WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ONLY
CHANGE WAS TO MAKE THE BEGINNING TIME AS 7 PM CST...6 PM MST. SOME
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SPECIFICALLY...KGLD WAS AT -15...KITR WAS AT -15 ...YUMA COLORADO
WAS AT -16...AND A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS WERE NEAR CRITERIA. THOSE
WOULD BE KMCK AT -13 AND KHLC AT -12. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
WATCH ON TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS WE MAY FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS WIND CHILLS 25 BELOW ZERO. LATEST
GUIDANCE AS OF 18Z CAME IN A LITTLE COLD SO REFLECTED THAT IN THE
GRIDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW LOOK QUITE COLD...HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
JUST ABOVE ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
SATELLITE AND RADAR RETURNS SHOW DECREASING TREND MATCHING MODEL
GUIDANCE. OBS STILL REPORTING LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY REPORTED BETWEEN 1/2SM TO 2SM. ACTUAL SNOW INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY.
THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF LIGHT SNOW
COMBINING WITH WIND/BLOWING SNOW.
LINGERING LIFT/MOISTURE COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING AS THE INITIAL MID LEVEL WAVE EXITS. WITH
FORCING/MOISTURE MUCH WEAKER/LESS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIMITED. WE MIGHT SEE ANOTHER HALF IN TO ONE INCH IN THE FAR
EAST THIS EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET...SO WHILE DRIFTING OR MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING VISIBILITIES OVERALL
SHOULD BE IMPROVING. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE
EXPIRATION OF THE ADVISORY THROUGH 03Z FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WHILE EXPIRING THE ADVISORY IN THE WEST WHEN THE TIME COMES.
THIS IS IF CONDITIONS ARE SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE EAST WHERE
WINDS MAY BE STRONGER. AT THIS POINT I AM PLANNING NO CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY...WITH EVERYTHING ON TRACK.
OTHER THAN BUMPING UP POPS SOME IN THE EVENING...I DID ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PASSES NORTH.
ANY ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAYBE A
DUSTING POSSIBLE (AT THE MOST).
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S
DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS...AND THE PLAN IS
TO WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT WSW IS EXPIRED TO AVOID CONFUSION
REGARDING THE WSW STATEMENTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUDY BUT DRY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY
STAY NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL STAY
CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW. WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY BRING A
LIGHT DUSTING OF AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW SNOW. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SYSTEM MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING TO 20
BELOW...BUT STILL EXPECTING THEM TO REACH THE 10 TO 15 BELOW
RANGE. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW RETURN WITH DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING...MORE WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IS NOT LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE JET
STREAMS ARE NO LONGER PHASED AND IT COMES OUT IN TWO PIECES. THE
FIRST ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS TOO FAR SOUTH BUT THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON SATURDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SNOWPACK...BUT MODELS INDICATE UP TO 40KTS IN THE 0-1KM LAYER
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH NEW SNOW ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES AND IF THE OLD SNOWPACK CAN
ICE OVER ON A DAY WITH SOME SUN. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW COMES ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN THE
NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG DEAL AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
A WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT BOTH TAF SIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE STORM MOVES EAST
AND THUS THE LOW VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING SNOW SHOULD IMPROVE.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG AT KGLD AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET. HOWEVER...A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE...THE
SREF AND NAM...SUGGEST THERE WILL NOT BE ANY REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES. WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS ALREADY INCLUDED IN
FORECAST...WENT AHEAD AND PLACED AN MVFR VIS IN THE KGLD TAF.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH AT KMCK THAT LIGHT FOG
SHOULD NOT BECOME A PROBLEM. CEILINGS IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY
TOMORROW ABOVE FUEL ALTERNATE CRITERIA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
121 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH
JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SW FLOW ADVECTING PLUME OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN US BORDER.
WINTER STORM ON TRACK TO IMPACT OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER
FOR SW PART OF THE CWA...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...AS TROUGH OVER WESTERN US ROUNDS THE BASE ON THE
ROCKIES IT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TWO COLD FRONTS
DROPPING SOUTH. THE FIRST WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
INITIALLY SNOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TIED TO LOBE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER SW COLORADO...WHICH WILL SHIFT NORTH AS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTH OVER KANSAS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
INSTABILITY IN THE SATURATED LAYER IN SNOW BAND THAT FORMS OVER
COLORADO...WHICH COULD SUPPORT MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATES ACROSS THE SW
PART OF OUR CWA. A CLOSED H7 LOW WILL FORM OVER KANSAS AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INDICATION OF A DEFORMATION BAND
FORMING ALONG THIS 700MB LOW...WITH DIFFERENCES IN ORIENTATION. THIS
DEFORMATION BAND WOULD BE THE MAIN SNOW PRODUCER FOR EASTERN
LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE
INITIAL BAND OVER COLORADO SHOULD WEAKEN AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS EAST...WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW OVERSPREADING
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEAKENING TREND...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE BAND IN SW COLORADO MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NORTH (CURRENTLY INDICATED BY 12Z NAM). IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR WE
WOULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA FURTHER NORTH IN THE CWA. AS IT STANDS
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE LOCATIONS
IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE BAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WOULD SEE 6-8
INCHES TOTAL...AND THIS IS WHERE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...BLOWING SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WE MAY NOT SEE THE HIGHEST
WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EAST...THOUGH WE COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA WITH AT LEAST
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...BUT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. AS THE SNOW ENDS ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
BRUTAL...ONE OF THE COLDEST STRETCHES IN RECENT MEMORY. WIND
CHILL WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EVERY DAY.
SOME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE SET...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND SKIES
CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND 15 BELOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
ZERO. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES. FINALLY START TO SEE SOME RIDGING ALOFT
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING NEXT MONDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MST MON FEB 3 2014
AT KGLD...IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY BECOME PREVALENT AND LOWER.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...CIGS MAY LOWER TO VLIFR AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE VIS REDUCTIONS IN PATCHY FOG. OVERNIGHT...SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VLIFR EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME A CONCERN BY MID TUESDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
AT KMCK...MID CLOUD DECK WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IFR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AS SNOW BEGINS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY
MORNING VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH LOW CIGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-
013>016-028-029.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 5
PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ027-041-042.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ090-091.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR COZ092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
124 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
SNOW IS STARTING TO MIX IN FURTHER SOUTH NOW...WITH REPORTS OF MIXING
AS FAR SOUTH AS CAMPTON. HAVE MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
WILL LEAVE EVERYTHING ELSE INTACT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST...INCLUDING SNOW AMOUNTS. THIS ALSO
INVOLVED ADDING IN SLEET AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FOR TIMES OF
LIGHTER PCPN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS
FORECAST IS THAT THE NEXT SURGE OF PCPN WILL TELL THE TALE AND
DETERMINE THE SNOW AMOUNTS AS IT BRINGS IN COPIOUS MOISTURE AND A
COLDER COLUMN OF AIR. THE LATEST NAM12 STILL PRINTS OUT ENOUGH FOR A
HALF FOOT OF SNOW THROUGH THE WARNING AREA WITH A POTENTIAL CLOSE TO
DOUBLE DIGITS. AS SUCH...HAVE NOT HAD TO ADJUST THE SNOW TOTALS
MUCH...JUST A TOUCH MORE FOR NORTHERN PULASKI AND SLIGHTLY LOWER IN
THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE WARNING BLOCK. THIS WILL BE A QUITE
INTERESTING NIGHT AS THAT SURGE MOVES THROUGH WITH COOLING CLOUD
TOPS NOW SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE AND A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. STILL SEE SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY DURING A WINDOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 AM ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. THE UPDATED GRIDS...HEADLINES AND ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT WITH ALL
THIS IN MIND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS HAS BENT THE WIND FLOW
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. ACCORDINGLY...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE BREADTH OF THE AREA WHILE A FEW 40S REMAIN
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF PCPN IS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY WITH MOSTLY RAIN
BUT SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AND HIGHER RETURNS SEEN IN THE RADAR
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH THE
ADDITION OF MORE OF A SLOUGH ZONE FOR SLEET AND EVEN PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN. FOR THE MOST PART...SNOW WILL BE P-TYPE LATER THIS EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT FOR THE WARNING COUNTIES ONCE THE NEXT SURGE ARRIVES.
UNTIL THEN...THOUGH SLEET AND SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN DEPENDING ON
THE HEAVINESS OF EACH SHOWER.
THE NEXT SURGE WILL BRING HEFTIER QPF AND RESULT IN QUICKLY
ACCUMULATING SNOWS DUE TO THE ISOTHERMAL SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHEN IT ARRIVES. RATES OF TWO INCHES AN
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ALONG WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF THUNDER.
TO THE SOUTHEAST...IT WILL BE MORE TRICKY WITH THE COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BENEATH THE WARM NOSE MAKING PATCHY FREEZING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY WHEN TEMPS APPROACH 32. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT
BE A HARD FREEZE SO ANY GLAZING IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE
ELEVATED SFC LIKE RAILINGS AND CAR HOODS/ROOFS RATHER THAN IMPACTING
THE ROADS. OF COURSE...THE USUAL CAVEATS OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
APPLY. FOR THESE AREAS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WITH
THE ICING POTENTIAL A COMPONENT TO THE HAZARD.
OF NOTE...NORTHERN PARTS OF PULASKI...LAUREL AND CLAY COUNTY MAY SEE
AMOUNTS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA PER THE LATEST HRRR AND 18Z
NAM12. WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNS THAT THE COLDER AIR
COLUMN MAKES IT TO THESE PARTS AHEAD OF FORECAST AND AFFECT OUR SNOW
TOTALS THERE ACCORDINGLY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ALL THE HEADLINES AS
THEY ARE AND HOLD PAT WITH THE ZONES...THOUGH DID FINE TUNE THE WX...
T...AND TD GRIDS THROUGH 06Z. THESE GRIDDED UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AND PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM MARTIN COUNTY...BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO MCCREARY COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH ON THROUGH
THE LAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THEIR RATHER QUICK DECENT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO OUR
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO EXPECTED VALUES.
MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY LOADING UP UPSTREAM...WITH
RADAR RETURNS RAMPING UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED AT THE ONSET. WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH...WE COULD SEE SNOW AT THE
ONSET. A STRONG FRONTOGENTICAL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WITH IMPRESSIVE OMEGA EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A CROSS SECTION ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY REVEALS A NEGATIVE AREA OF SATURATED EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE...SUGGESTING SOME POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AS THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW TAKES
PLACE. THUS...GIVEN THE EXPECT 0.75 TO 0.90 OF LIQUID MODELS ARE
PUTTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH...A BAND OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS EVEN LIKELY. BASED ON UPSTREAM
TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE I-64 CORRIDOR SEEMS TO THE BE THE TARGET
GROUND FOR THE BEST SNOWFALL. PLAN TO INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
WORDING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. NO CHANGES PLANNED
TO CURRENT HEADLINES.
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT WITH SNOWFALL
TONIGHT AS THE THE COLD AIR BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...SLOWLY
CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER. THIS CHANGEOVER MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL VERY
LATE TONIGHT...IF AT ALL...WITH SOUTHEAST AREAS POSSIBLY STAYING RAIN
OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A HUGE IMPACT
HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL TO JUST AROUND 32 BY 7 AM
MONDAY MORNING...AND WITH RECENT MILD WEATHER...MAY NOT BE A BIG
IMPACT. REGARDLESS...A FEW SLICK SPOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AND
PLAN TO RIDE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY MAY ONLY SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE COMING TO AN END
ACROSS THE EAST BY MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE HELD DOWN
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE FRESH SNOW...WHILE AREAS IN THE SOUTH MAY
RECOVER BACK TO AROUND 40 BY THE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY NIGHT...FRESH
SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW A QUICK DROP OFF IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKELY FALLING
INTO THE LOW 20S FOR LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH ON THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING SOUTH FROM COLORADO TO THE THE SONORA
DESSERT. THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IDAHO TO UTAH ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ANOTHER FRONT LIES
ALONG THE GULF COAST. A LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT OVER
LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WITH STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT ALSO DIP TO THE
SOUTH. THE UPPER LOWS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PHASING AND THIS WILL
BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE
LOW THAT WAS ORIGINALLY OVER LOUISIANA...WILL PUMP SOME MOISTURE UP
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE PHASING UPPER TROUGHS AND THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME INITIAL
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOLLOW BY SOME HIGH RIVERS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND
THEN BECOME ALL SNOW AS A LAST GASP AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. VERY LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS THE LAST OF THE SNOW MOVES INTO VIRGINIA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .
THE UPPER AIR BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BY FRIDAY
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
IFR OR WORSE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 12Z
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW...GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 10Z. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL ALIGN BETWEEN THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I-64...WITH AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY TOWARDS THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80
CORRIDORS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
12 AND 15Z...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
104-106-108-111.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ079-
080-083>088-110-113-115>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ068-069-107-109-
112-114.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
UPDATE...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING...WITH BETWEEN 1.5 AND
2.5 INCHES PER HOUR THE NORM ACROSS MUSKINGUM COUNTY. WHILE RATES
THIS IMPRESSIVE GIVE PAUSE...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY
SHOWS SIGNS OF BRIGHT BANDING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MEANING A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SAID CORRIDOR OF BRIGHT BANDING RUNS UP TOWARD
THE WHEELING AREA AS OF 930 PM...AND OBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF THE
CORRIDOR SUPPORT A MIXED PHASE EVENT ALREADY ONGOING GIVEN THE
MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL/UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION AT
THE MORGANTOWN ASOS SITE. THAT SAID...OTHER THAN TO NOMINALLY
INCREASE SNOW TOTALS AROUND ZANESVILLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THE NEWLY
ARRIVED 00Z NAM SUPPORTS THE CURRENT PROJECTION OF
ONSET/CHANGEOVER/P-TYPE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. NO
FURTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. FRIES
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SPRAWLING WINTER STORM WILL TAKE
AIM ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE
MOMENT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY OCCLUDING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS. A VERY WELL
DEVELOPED WARM CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLICING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...WITH A RAPIDLY EVOLVING DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL COME INTO PLAY FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 OR SO HOURS.
SO LET`S BREAK IT DOWN...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST TONGUE IS SET TO DRIVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EVIDENT IN ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN THE 295-305K LAYER WITH MIXING RATIOS LIKELY TO TOP 6
G/KG IN THE LIFTED LAYER BY MORNING. AS SUCH...WHILE PROFILES MAY
INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...RAPID WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP A STRONG WARM TONGUE ALOFT AND TRANSITION
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN BASICALLY
EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES IN OHIO...AS WELL AS THE AREAS ALMOST AS FAR NORTH AS I-80
WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO DO THIS...SO THEY WILL SEE HEAVIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH...REALLY ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO
OF SNOW IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGEOVERS START TO OCCUR. NAM AND
GFS 18Z SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SUPPORT FROM THE RAP SUGGEST THAT WARM
ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 12Z RUNS
FAVORED. GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...A SURFACE LOW TRACK
RIGHT OVER THE CWA...AS WELL AS A LOW LEVEL JET TOPPING 70
KTS...AND LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
RIDGES...RAPID TRANSITIONS DO SEEM LIKELY. HOWEVER...GIVE THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AFTER THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW WILL BE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY IN THE INTRA-
RIDGE AREAS OF FAYETTE/WESTMORELAND...AS WELL AS IN GARRETT
COUNTY. IN THESE AREAS...A HALF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN CERTAINLY
IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...A
SECONDARY CORRIDOR OF HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIKELY ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO STRADDLE JUST BELOW FREEZING
LONGER...THIS WOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY ZANESVILLE TO ARMSTRONG
COUNTY.
BECAUSE OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE WARM
TONGUE EVOLVES QUICKLY AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS INTENSE ON
THE NOSE OF SAID FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE DRY SLOT
EVOLVING SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ABUNDANT
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IN
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/RAIN WOULD NOT BE ALL THAT SHOCKING. THAT
SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER EARLY ON...THAT
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY HIGH FOR A PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. COMBINING THAT WITH A CURRENTLY FROZEN AND/OR SNOW
COVERED GROUND OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THE RATIO OF QPF
THAT TRANSLATES INTO ICE ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL...EVEN WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITATION RATES. FARTHER
NORTH...WITH A COLDER COLUMN...THIS FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE
FAVORED WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION.
A SECONDARY CONSEQUENCE OF THE RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE DRY SLOT
INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RAPID DRYING OF THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CUT OFF RAPID SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND LIKELY END PRECIPITATION
AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE IMMEDIATELY
POST FRONTAL DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
BEHIND. HOWEVER...BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD
ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN
INCREASE...SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SEEM LIKELY TO RETURN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS FOR THE
MOMENT...HOWEVER ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS WERE GENERALLY TRENDED
MORE HEAVILY TOWARD ICE THAN SNOW FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT THE VERY
FARTHEST NORTH COUNTIES IN THE AREA. IN PARTICULAR...GARRETT
COUNTY COULD BE VERY HARD HIT BY FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/MV/MD AS NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES. ALTHOUGH
LAKE ERIE WILL BE MOSTLY FROZEN...BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
TO SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AS SUBSIDENCE TAKE PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARD LATER THURSDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LACK OF CONTINUITY DECREED USE OF AN ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM PD...HENCE THE PRUDENCE OF TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE. POPS WERE
THUS LTD TO THE CHC CATEGORY...BUT GENLY TRENDED UPWARD FOR EARLY
NXT WEEK GIVEN INDICATIONS OF TROUGH PASSAGE. TEMPS WERE TRENDED
COLDER FOR THE SAME PD...ALTHOUGH THE COLDER ECMWF MOS WAS
REFERENCED AS OPPOSED TO THE NR ZERO WPC NMBRS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAPIDLY ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS
TO IFR AFTER 04Z AND THROUGH MOST OF WED. A WIDE MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES FROM SOUTHERN PORTS TO NORTH. MGW WILL GO RAIN FIRST WITH A
TRANSITION LINE MOVING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. FKL AND DUJ WILL STAY
SNOW THE LONGEST.
.OUTLOOK..../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A SERIES OF
WEEKEND DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ058-059-068-069.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ068-
069.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
020>023-029-073-074-076.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
015-016.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ029-031-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ031-
075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>003.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ002>004-012-
021>023-041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ004-
023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
810 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
A SPRAWLING WINTER STORM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE MOMENT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
RAPIDLY OCCLUDING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
EASTERN KANSAS. A VERY WELL DEVELOPED WARM CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURE
IS EVIDENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLICING THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WITH A RAPIDLY EVOLVING DRY
SLOT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL
COME INTO PLAY FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 24 OR SO HOURS.
SO LET`S BREAK IT DOWN...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST TONGUE IS SET TO DRIVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EVIDENT IN ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN THE 295-305K LAYER WITH MIXING RATIOS LIKELY TO TOP 6
G/KG IN THE LIFTED LAYER BY MORNING. AS SUCH...WHILE PROFILES MAY
INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...RAPID WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP A STRONG WARM TONGUE ALOFT AND TRANSITION
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN BASICALLY
EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES IN OHIO...AS WELL AS THE AREAS ALMOST AS FAR NORTH AS I-80
WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO DO THIS...SO THEY WILL SEE HEAVIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH...REALLY ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO
OF SNOW IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGEOVERS START TO OCCUR. NAM AND
GFS 18Z SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SUPPORT FROM THE RAP SUGGEST THAT WARM
ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 12Z RUNS
FAVORED. GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...A SURFACE LOW TRACK
RIGHT OVER THE CWA...AS WELL AS A LOW LEVEL JET TOPPING 70
KTS...AND LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
RIDGES...RAPID TRANSITIONS DO SEEM LIKELY. HOWEVER...GIVE THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AFTER THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW WILL BE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY IN THE INTRA-
RIDGE AREAS OF FAYETTE/WESTMORELAND...AS WELL AS IN GARRETT
COUNTY. IN THESE AREAS...A HALF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN CERTAINLY
IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...A
SECONDARY CORRIDOR OF HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIKELY ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO STRADDLE JUST BELOW FREEZING
LONGER...THIS WOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY ZANESVILLE TO ARMSTRONG
COUNTY.
BECAUSE OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE WARM
TONGUE EVOLVES QUICKLY AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS INTENSE ON
THE NOSE OF SAID FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE DRY SLOT
EVOLVING SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ABUNDANT
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IN
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/RAIN WOULD NOT BE ALL THAT SHOCKING. THAT
SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER EARLY ON...THAT
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY HIGH FOR A PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. COMBINING THAT WITH A CURRENTLY FROZEN AND/OR SNOW
COVERED GROUND OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THE RATIO OF QPF
THAT TRANSLATES INTO ICE ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL...EVEN WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITATION RATES. FARTHER
NORTH...WITH A COLDER COLUMN...THIS FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE
FAVORED WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION.
A SECONDARY CONSEQUENCE OF THE RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE DRY SLOT
INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RAPID DRYING OF THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CUT OFF RAPID SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND LIKELY END PRECIPITATION
AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE IMMEDIATELY
POST FRONTAL DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
BEHIND. HOWEVER...BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD
ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN
INCREASE...SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SEEM LIKELY TO RETURN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS FOR THE
MOMENT...HOWEVER ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS WERE GENERALLY TRENDED
MORE HEAVILY TOWARD ICE THAN SNOW FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT THE VERY
FARTHEST NORTH COUNTIES IN THE AREA. IN PARTICULAR...GARRETT
COUNTY COULD BE VERY HARD HIT BY FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/MV/MD AS NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES. ALTHOUGH
LAKE ERIE WILL BE MOSTLY FROZEN...BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
TO SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AS SUBSIDENCE TAKE PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARD LATER THURSDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LACK OF CONTINUITY DECREED USE OF AN ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM PD...HENCE THE PRUDENCE OF TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE. POPS WERE
THUS LTD TO THE CHC CATEGORY...BUT GENLY TRENDED UPWARD FOR EARLY
NXT WEEK GIVEN INDICATIONS OF TROUGH PASSAGE. TEMPS WERE TRENDED
COLDER FOR THE SAME PD...ALTHOUGH THE COLDER ECMWF MOS WAS
REFERENCED AS OPPOSED TO THE NR ZERO WPC NMBRS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAPIDLY ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS
TO IFR AFTER 04Z AND THROUGH MOST OF WED. A WIDE MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES FROM SOUTHERN PORTS TO NORTH. MGW WILL GO RAIN FIRST WITH A
TRANSITION LINE MOVING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. FKL AND DUJ WILL STAY
SNOW THE LONGEST.
.OUTLOOK..../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A SERIES OF
WEEKEND DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ058-059-068-069.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ068-
069.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
020>023-029-073-074-076.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
015-016.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ029-031-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ031-
075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>003.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ002>004-012-
021>023-041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ004-
023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
752 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS...UPDATED GRIDS
TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA THIS EVENING. EVEN GOT
A REPORT OF SOME IP (GRAUPEL) MIXING IT AT ONSET ACROSS NE NC PAST
HR. OTW...PCPN EXPECTED TO SHIFT N AND W THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAY
BECOME MORE LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE SCENARIO.
PVS DSCN:
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1034 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK CAD RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ALOFT, WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...HEADED TOWARDS IN/IL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT TOWARDS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP HAS
CAPTURED TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WELL...AND FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING WILL HAVE A SIMILAR FLAVOR AS BEST LIFT (290-300K
ISENTROPIC SFC) SLIPS NORTH. GENERALLY, SHRAS WILL PUSH ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC THROUGH 23Z OR SO, WITH BEST SLUG
OF MOISTURE HEADED TOWARDS RIC/EZF AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.
INITIALLY, BEST MOISTURE IS IN THE SUB-CLOUD LYR, WITH DRIER AIR
REMAINING ALOFT. THUS, EXPECT RAIN TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
SPOTTY DZ EARLY ON...BECOMING MORE STEADY AS LIFT IMPROVES LATER
ON IN THE EVENING. PCPN ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT, THOUGH EXPECT
PATCHY DZ TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LLVLS REMAIN MOIST. ALSO
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE
VA INTO NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN OH VLY AND
WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN WARMING
TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT BEST LIFT TO
CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW FLIRT WITH ANY FZRA
POTENTIAL (WHICH WILL LIE JUST NW OF OUR CWA BORDERS). MINIMA WILL
LIKELY BE ACHIEVED EARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING
STEADY THEN SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTH, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY SHUNTING THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE A
130-150KT JET STREAK WILL KEEP BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, EXPECT ENOUGH UVM/FGEN FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE LIKELY SHOWERS COINCIDING WITH THE
FROPA. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, RETURN
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. SREF PROBS SHOWING 50-60% CHC OF MLCAPE VALUES REACHING
500 J/KG...SO EXPECT EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS FAR SE ZONES. COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
(THOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT).
REGARDLESS, CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE COULD BRING
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WED AFTN.
CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE QUICKLY W-E BY AFTERNOON...AS DOWNSLOPE WNW
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SCOURS OUT MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE...LOW 50S NW...TO MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE SE. STORM TOTAL QPF WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH (UP TO
ONE HALF INCH) AND ALONG THE COAST (BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH).
LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
STRONG 1042+MB HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, SHUNTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FARTHER
OFFSHORE AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ENSUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. DRY WX IS EXPECTED THU/FRI AS SFC HI PRES BRIEFLY
SLIDES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPR 30S OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE TO THE LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVR THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN STARTING SATURDAY
WITH THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM ON A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING THE CONUS. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COAST SATURDAY. THE ECMWF PUSHES QPF WEST INTO SE VA AND EVEN
CENTRAL VA SATURDAY. A BLEND OF THE TWO PUSHES CHANCE POPS INTO
CENTRAL VA SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 50% ACROSS NE NC
AND SE VA TO 35% ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS SAT DEPEND HIGHLY ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HAVE TENDED ON THE COOL SIDE....BUT SHOULD
THERE BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
ONCE THIS FIRST COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY EXISTS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...WILL BE DRY FOR A PERIOD UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
SUNDAY. A STRONGER WAVE DEVELOPS SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER HIGHLY ON
THIS SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF RUNNING FASTER AND COLDER. A BLEND OF
THE MODELS MODELS INTRODUCES A RAIN SNOW MIX SUNDAY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND MD SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR
ANY REAL ACCUMULATION IN AREAS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURS.
EXPECT ALL RAIN SUNDAY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW (MIXED
WITH SOME RAIN) COULD SPREAD EAST TO THE COAST...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF AS DRY AIR MOVES IN RAPIDLY.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO
SE/S BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TO SW DURING THE DAY. PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDS OVER SE PORTIONS
WILL SPREAD N/W DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
SPREADS NARROW. CONDS ONLY IMPROVE SLOWLY DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE N/NW. DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING MORE RAIN/IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...SEAS CONTINUING NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES MAY SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT
BUILD TO 5 FT OR HIGHER WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. USING CURRENT FCSTS...SEAS BUILD IN THE
REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. WITH THESE
THINGS IN MIND...HAVE SET UP SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND NORTH FROM CAPE CHARLES NORTH
THROUGH THE MD COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT 11Z IN THE MORNING. THE
ABOVE SCA CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z THURSDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCA CONTINUES THIS EVENING JUST FOR THE NC WATERS WHERE SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO FALL BELOW 5 TO 6 FT WITH THE NLY WINDS. SEAS WILL
DECREASE TO 5 FT OR LESS LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE WAVES AND
SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
AS THE PRES GRAD RELAXED SLIGHTLY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT THEN LIST NE TO THE DELMARVA BY WED
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SLY FLOW WED MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB SCA FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND BAY AT THIS TIME. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SCA CRITERIA SOME
TIME WED MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HOVER...SLY WIND EVENTS
TEND TO BE OVER PREDICTED IN THE MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO
THE COLD WATERS. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS OVERNIGHT IN CASE A SCA IS
NEEDED FOR WED.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS WED NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS ALL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. THE BEST NLY
SURGE WITH THIS FRONT WILL OCCUR FROM 06Z-16Z THURSDAY. SCA COND ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS NLY SURGE.
HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION LATE THUR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING CALMER WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.
THE PATTEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND STARTING LATE SATURDAY.
THIS PERIOD OF INCREASED WIND AND SEAS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH SCA COND LIKELY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA/JAO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
623 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS...UPDATED GRIDS
TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA THIS EVENING. EVEN GOT
A REPORT OF SOME IP (GRAUPEL) MIXING IT AT ONSET ACROSS NE NC PAST
HR. OTW...PCPN EXPECTED TO SHIFT N AND W THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAY
BECOME MORE LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE SCENARIO.
PVS DSCN:
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1034 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK CAD RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ALOFT, WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...HEADED TOWARDS IN/IL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT TOWARDS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP HAS
CAPTURED TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WELL...AND FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING WILL HAVE A SIMILAR FLAVOR AS BEST LIFT (290-300K
ISENTROPIC SFC) SLIPS NORTH. GENERALLY, SHRAS WILL PUSH ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC THROUGH 23Z OR SO, WITH BEST SLUG
OF MOISTURE HEADED TOWARDS RIC/EZF AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.
INITIALLY, BEST MOISTURE IS IN THE SUB-CLOUD LYR, WITH DRIER AIR
REMAINING ALOFT. THUS, EXPECT RAIN TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
SPOTTY DZ EARLY ON...BECOMING MORE STEADY AS LIFT IMPROVES LATER
ON IN THE EVENING. PCPN ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT, THOUGH EXPECT
PATCHY DZ TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LLVLS REMAIN MOIST. ALSO
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE
VA INTO NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN OH VLY AND
WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN WARMING
TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT BEST LIFT TO
CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW FLIRT WITH ANY FZRA
POTENTIAL (WHICH WILL LIE JUST NW OF OUR CWA BORDERS). MINIMA WILL
LIKELY BE ACHIEVED EARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING
STEADY THEN SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTH, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY SHUNTING THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE A
130-150KT JET STREAK WILL KEEP BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, EXPECT ENOUGH UVM/FGEN FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE LIKELY SHOWERS COINCIDING WITH THE
FROPA. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, RETURN
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. SREF PROBS SHOWING 50-60% CHC OF MLCAPE VALUES REACHING
500 J/KG...SO EXPECT EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS FAR SE ZONES. COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
(THOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT).
REGARDLESS, CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE COULD BRING
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WED AFTN.
CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE QUICKLY W-E BY AFTERNOON...AS DOWNSLOPE WNW
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SCOURS OUT MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE...LOW 50S NW...TO MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE SE. STORM TOTAL QPF WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH (UP TO
ONE HALF INCH) AND ALONG THE COAST (BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH).
LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
STRONG 1042+MB HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, SHUNTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FARTHER
OFFSHORE AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ENSUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. DRY WX IS EXPECTED THU/FRI AS SFC HI PRES BRIEFLY
SLIDES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPR 30S OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE TO THE LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVR THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN STARTING SATURDAY
WITH THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM ON A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING THE CONUS. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COAST SATURDAY. THE ECMWF PUSHES QPF WEST INTO SE VA AND EVEN
CENTRAL VA SATURDAY. A BLEND OF THE TWO PUSHES CHANCE POPS INTO
CENTRAL VA SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 50% ACROSS NE NC
AND SE VA TO 35% ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS SAT DEPEND HIGHLY ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HAVE TENDED ON THE COOL SIDE....BUT SHOULD
THERE BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
ONCE THIS FIRST COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY EXISTS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...WILL BE DRY FOR A PERIOD UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
SUNDAY. A STRONGER WAVE DEVELOPS SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER HIGHLY ON
THIS SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF RUNNING FASTER AND COLDER. A BLEND OF
THE MODELS MODELS INTRODUCES A RAIN SNOW MIX SUNDAY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND MD SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR
ANY REAL ACCUMULATION IN AREAS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURS.
EXPECT ALL RAIN SUNDAY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW (MIXED
WITH SOME RAIN) COULD SPREAD EAST TO THE COAST...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF AS DRY AIR MOVES IN RAPIDLY.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK OF 600-2000 FT AGL WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
FARTHER INLAND FROM THE COAST TODAY WHILE CTRL VA STAYS RELATIVELY
CLOUD-FREE. THIS ALL ENDS AFTER 05/0000Z TONIGHT AS LOW CIGS
(ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT) LIFT NORTH FROM THE SE STATES TWD
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THIS TIME AND OVERSPREAD
THE REGION BY 05/0600Z. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE PRECIP
AND WARM FRONT WILL LOWER CIGS TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND WILL ALSO
LOWER VISIBILITIES TO ROUGHLY 2SM...POSSIBLY DOWN TO 1SM DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NW OF
THE REGION ON WED...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WED
AFTN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN
WITH SHOWERS EXITING THE COAST BY EARLY WED EVENING. SOLID
OVERCAST SKIES BEGIN TO BREAK UP BEHIND THE FROPA AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WED NIGHT/THU. POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NNW.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES THIS EVENING JUST FOR THE NC WATERS WHERE SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO FALL BELOW 5 TO 6 FT WITH THE NLY WINDS. SEAS WILL
DECREASE TO 5 FT OR LESS LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE WAVES AND
SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
AS THE PRES GRAD RELAXED SLIGHTLY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST OVERNIGHT THEN LIST NE TO THE DELMARVA BY WED MORNING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SLY FLOW WED MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB SCA FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAY AT
THIS TIME. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SCA CRITERIA SOME TIME WED
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HOVER...SLY WIND EVENTS TEND TO BE
OVER PREDICTED IN THE MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE COLD
WATERS. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS OVERNIGHT IN CASE A SCA IS NEEDED FOR
WED.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS WED NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS ALL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. THE BEST NLY
SURGE WITH THIS FRONT WILL OCCUR FROM 06Z-16Z THURSDAY. SCA COND ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS NLY SURGE.
HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION LATE THUR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING CALMER WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.
THE PATTEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND STARTING LATE SATURDAY.
THIS PERIOD OF INCREASED WIND AND SEAS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH SCA COND LIKELY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ALB/BMD
MARINE...BMD/JAO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
802 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
WITH A STEADY N WIND E OF BLDG HI PRES IN THE PLAINS DRAWING SOME LO
CLDS IN OFF LK SUP AND QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD ON THE NRN FLANK OF LO
PRES IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY IMPACTING INLAND LOCATIONS THRU MUCH OF
THE NGT...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
THROUGH KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH THIS DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING NORTH WITH THE LEADING EDGE REACHING INTO
NE WI AND SCNTRL UPPER MI. THIS ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS IT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING FM HIGH CENTERED OVER ALBERTA HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES OVER THE NW AND ERN FCST AREA DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN WNW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY REACHED INTO THE
TEENS WITH A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH GENERALLY
A NNW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE ASSOC SFC LOW WITH SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. EVEN WITH LIMITED HEAT/MOISTURE
FLUX ACROSS THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE...SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING LES
WILL REMAIN FROM MUNISING EASTWARD WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
AROUND AN INCH. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ACCUMULATING LES AS NOTED ON
NAM AND WRF-ARW SNDGS WILL BE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INVERSION HGTS LOWERING TO 3-4 KFT.
THE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM SYSTEM ADVANCING FM SOUTH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST
WITH READINGS GENERALLY FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. OVER THE WEST...TEMPS
COULD STILL FALL AROUND -5F.
WINDS BACKING AGAIN TO THE WNW WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING
LIGHT LES INTO ERN ALGER AND NRN LUCE COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE ICE
COVERAGE WEST SHOULD LIMIT LES THERE TO NO MORE THAN FLURRIES BY WED
AFTERNOON GIVEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HGTS.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST
TO LOWER/MID TEENS SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
VERY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE U.P. WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME VERY WEAK TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THANKS TO AN EQUALLY
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. SYSTEM MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS ICE COVERED THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY REMAINS STATIONARY.
THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FLOW
ALOFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE ABSENTS OF MOISTURE AND ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS EXPECTING LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ALSO DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FAR AS THE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS...THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE WRAPPED UP THAN THE
EC AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH AS IT SHIFTS THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EC/GEM ARE MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED AND A BIT SLOWER/
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NEVER REALLY DEVELOP A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
WEST TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT LES DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN U.P.
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ALOFT...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE N TNGT E OF HI PRES BLDG INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT CLDS OVER LK SUP TO SHIFT BACK OVER UPR MI. WITH AN
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT IWD AND SAW...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREDOMINATE. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT CMX
WITH A LESS FVRBL WIND. ON WED...THE WINDS WL BACK STEADILY TO THE
NW. AT SAW...THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN COMBINATION OF LOWERING INVRN
BASE SHOULD BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF VFR WX. WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND AT
IWD AND CMX...HI END MVFR TO VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL. EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LK SUP WL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HEAVIER SHSN/IFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CONTINUED ARCTIC COLD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WED
COINCIDING WITH A LOW MOVING THROUGH HUDSON BAY. AS A RESULT...A
BRIEF PERIODS OF WSW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WED
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND NCNTRL PORTION OF THE LAKE. WITH MUCH OF
THE LAKE ICE COVERED...THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CONCERN FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. A POCKET OF OPEN WATER NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND
MARAIS MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
628 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
THROUGH KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH THIS DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING NORTH WITH THE LEADING EDGE REACHING INTO
NE WI AND SCNTRL UPPER MI. THIS ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS IT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING FM HIGH CENTERED OVER ALBERTA HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES OVER THE NW AND ERN FCST AREA DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN WNW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY REACHED INTO THE
TEENS WITH A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH GENERALLY
A NNW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE ASSOC SFC LOW WITH SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. EVEN WITH LIMITED HEAT/MOISTURE
FLUX ACROSS THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE...SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING LES
WILL REMAIN FROM MUNISING EASTWARD WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
AROUND AN INCH. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ACCUMULATING LES AS NOTED ON
NAM AND WRF-ARW SNDGS WILL BE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INVERSION HGTS LOWERING TO 3-4 KFT.
THE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM SYSTEM ADVANCING FM SOUTH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST
WITH READINGS GENERALLY FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. OVER THE WEST...TEMPS
COULD STILL FALL AROUND -5F.
WINDS BACKING AGAIN TO THE WNW WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING
LIGHT LES INTO ERN ALGER AND NRN LUCE COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE ICE
COVERAGE WEST SHOULD LIMIT LES THERE TO NO MORE THAN FLURRIES BY WED
AFTERNOON GIVEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HGTS.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST
TO LOWER/MID TEENS SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
VERY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE U.P. WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME VERY WEAK TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THANKS TO AN EQUALLY
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. SYSTEM MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS ICE COVERED THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY REMAINS STATIONARY.
THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FLOW
ALOFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE ABSENTS OF MOISTURE AND ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS EXPECTING LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ALSO DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FAR AS THE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS...THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE WRAPPED UP THAN THE
EC AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH AS IT SHIFTS THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EC/GEM ARE MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED AND A BIT SLOWER/
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NEVER REALLY DEVELOP A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
WEST TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT LES DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN U.P.
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ALOFT...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE N TNGT E OF HI PRES BLDG INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT CLDS OVER LK SUP TO SHIFT BACK OVER UPR MI. WITH AN
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT IWD AND SAW...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREDOMINATE. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT CMX
WITH A LESS FVRBL WIND. ON WED...THE WINDS WL BACK STEADILY TO THE
NW. AT SAW...THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN COMBINATION OF LOWERING INVRN
BASE SHOULD BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF VFR WX. WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND AT
IWD AND CMX...HI END MVFR TO VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL. EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LK SUP WL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HEAVIER SHSN/IFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CONTINUED ARCTIC COLD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WED
COINCIDING WITH A LOW MOVING THROUGH HUDSON BAY. AS A RESULT...A
BRIEF PERIODS OF WSW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WED
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND NCNTRL PORTION OF THE LAKE. WITH MUCH OF
THE LAKE ICE COVERED...THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CONCERN FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. A POCKET OF OPEN WATER NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND
MARAIS MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
THROUGH KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH THIS DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING NORTH WITH THE LEADING EDGE REACHING INTO
NE WI AND SCNTRL UPPER MI. THIS ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS IT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING FM HIGH CENTERED OVER ALBERTA HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES OVER THE NW AND ERN FCST AREA DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN WNW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY REACHED INTO THE
TEENS WITH A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH GENERALLY
A NNW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE ASSOC SFC LOW WITH SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. EVEN WITH LIMITED HEAT/MOISTURE
FLUX ACROSS THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE...SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING LES
WILL REMAIN FROM MUNISING EASTWARD WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
AROUND AN INCH. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ACCUMULATING LES AS NOTED ON
NAM AND WRF-ARW SNDGS WILL BE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INVERSION HGTS LOWERING TO 3-4 KFT.
THE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM SYSTEM ADVANCING FM SOUTH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST
WITH READINGS GENERALLY FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. OVER THE WEST...TEMPS
COULD STILL FALL AROUND -5F.
WINDS BACKING AGAIN TO THE WNW WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING
LIGHT LES INTO ERN ALGER AND NRN LUCE COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE ICE
COVERAGE WEST SHOULD LIMIT LES THERE TO NO MORE THAN FLURRIES BY WED
AFTERNOON GIVEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HGTS.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST
TO LOWER/MID TEENS SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
VERY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE U.P. WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME VERY WEAK TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THANKS TO AN EQUALLY
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. SYSTEM MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS ICE COVERED THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY REMAINS STATIONARY.
THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FLOW
ALOFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE ABSENTS OF MOISTURE AND ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS EXPECTING LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ALSO DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FAR AS THE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS...THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE WRAPPED UP THAN THE
EC AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH AS IT SHIFTS THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EC/GEM ARE MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED AND A BIT SLOWER/
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NEVER REALLY DEVELOP A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
WEST TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT LES DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN U.P.
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ALOFT...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
WITH A CHILLY UPSLOPE NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR DEVELOPING...EXPECT
PREDOMINANT HIGH END MVFR TO DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD TO SAW TO LOWER TO HIGH END
MVFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT DRAWS LAKE
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WED
COINCIDING WITH A LOW MOVING THROUGH HUDSON BAY. AS A RESULT...A
BRIEF PERIODS OF WSW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WED
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND NCNTRL PORTION OF THE LAKE. WITH MUCH OF
THE LAKE ICE COVERED...THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CONCERN FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. A POCKET OF OPEN WATER NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND
MARAIS MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1242 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MAINLY ZONAL NRN STREAM
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED AS AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES
BUILDS TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP
OFF INTO THE -10 TO -23 RANGE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY TO AROUND ZERO OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI AS AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS MOVES THROUGH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 900-850 MB RH FCST
SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS WILL DEPART THE CWA BY 12Z LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SFC-850 MB TROUGH MOVING FROM MN
TOWARD UPPER MI. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE MAY ALSO BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPPER MI AS AN AREA OF 270K-275K ISENTROPIC LIFT (900-800 MB)
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BTWN 21Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LES AS THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND 850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -15C TO
-18C RANGE OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF TOO FAR AS MIN READINGS FALL TO AROUND ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
BENIGN WEATHER PATTER IS EXPECTED FROM TUE THROUGH SUN AS FLOW IS
MOSTLY ZONAL AND EXTENT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR LIMITS LES
COVERAGE/CHANCES.
REALLY...NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY PART OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH JUST LOW 30 POPS BEING THE HIGHEST
POP IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS. THU LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS W TO THE LOW TEENS E. MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME BLOW SNOW TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THU AND
FRI. W-WSW WINDS LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 25KTS AT THAT TIME...AND
WITH ICE COVERING MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW IS ESPECIALLY
EXPOSED TO BLOWING SNOW. USED CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO START THE PERIOD...BUT AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING
CEILINGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW LOW THEY
WILL GO. LOOKING UPSTREAM IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...AND NORTH DAKOTA...MOST SITES ARE AT VFR WITH AN
OCCASIONAL HIGH END MVFR WITH A SNOW SHOWER. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED
THAT IDEA FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION -SHSN FOR KIWD/KCMX DUE
TO THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. SINCE MUCH OF THE WESTERN LAKE IS ICE
COVERED...HELD OFF ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE LIMITED
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEK. GALES
ARE NOT EXPECTED. SOME OCCASIONAL FREEZING SPRAY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON THE LAKE CONTINUES TO
EXPAND...EVEN OVER EASTERN PORTIONS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
504 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MAINLY ZONAL NRN STREAM
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED AS AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES
BUILDS TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP
OFF INTO THE -10 TO -23 RANGE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY TO AROUND ZERO OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI AS AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS MOVES THROUGH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 900-850 MB RH FCST
SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS WILL DEPART THE CWA BY 12Z LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SFC-850 MB TROUGH MOVING FROM MN
TOWARD UPPER MI. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE MAY ALSO BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPPER MI AS AN AREA OF 270K-275K ISENTROPIC LIFT (900-800 MB)
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BTWN 21Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LES AS THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND 850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -15C TO
-18C RANGE OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF TOO FAR AS MIN READINGS FALL TO AROUND ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
BENIGN WEATHER PATTER IS EXPECTED FROM TUE THROUGH SUN AS FLOW IS
MOSTLY ZONAL AND EXTENT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR LIMITS LES
COVERAGE/CHANCES.
REALLY...NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY PART OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH JUST LOW 30 POPS BEING THE HIGHEST
POP IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS. THU LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS W TO THE LOW TEENS E. MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME BLOW SNOW TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THU AND
FRI. W-WSW WINDS LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 25KTS AT THAT TIME...AND
WITH ICE COVERING MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW IS ESPECIALLY
EXPOSED TO BLOWING SNOW. USED CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME SC WITH HI END MVFR/LO VFR CIGS MAY IMPACT CMX FOR A
COUPLE HRS EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT A DRY WSW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK
OF HI PRES MOVING THRU THE LOWER LKS TO BRING PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 SITES THRU THIS AFTN. A WEAK LO PRES TROF WL
ARRIVE THIS EVNG. GIVEN RATHER LIMITED AND SHALLOW MSTR...THE BEST
CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE
W WIND COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEK. GALES
ARE NOT EXPECTED. SOME OCCASIONAL FREEZING SPRAY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON THE LAKE CONTINUES TO
EXPAND...EVEN OVER EASTERN PORTIONS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
555 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A MINOR UPDATE FOR
TEMPERATURE AND SKY TRENDS COMING SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AND NNW TO NW FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
RELATIVELY QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING CLOUD COVER...BUT I
LEANED ON THE GFS AND RAP13 WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUNNIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. I SUSPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND THE AMOUNT COULD AFFECT
THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ALSO...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SE FORECAST
AREA...AND THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING THESE CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD
COVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR PARTS OF
NE MINNESOTA...BUT SINCE I AM NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CLOUD
COVER...I HELD OFF ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT REEVALUATE.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
IN IRON COUNTY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MORE
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. I EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE
WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL BECOME WESTERLY TOMORROW...ENDING THE
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK COLD AND RELATIVELY QUIET.
AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NOT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE NORTHLAND.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. A FEW OTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT TIMES AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS
POINT.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES...THEY ALSO APPEAR LOW FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF ICE...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME OPEN
AREAS. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SHORE IF MORE OF
THE LAKE OPENS UP DUE TO STRONGER WINDS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY
REMAIN FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AFFECTING KINL...KHIB AND KDLH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOST OF
THE NIGHT. FACTORS FOR EITHER DECREASING OR INCREASING CLOUDS TOO
WEAK TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING LIKELY...THOUGH THERE ARE HOLES
IN THE CLOUD COVER AND THESE SHOULD LINGER. SO...HAVE MADE MAINLY
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY...BUT AT LEAST VFR. NEW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN THE SAME GENERAL
HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR HEIGHT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -11 6 -14 7 / 0 0 10 10
INL -18 2 -19 5 / 0 0 10 20
BRD -12 5 -17 6 / 0 0 0 0
HYR -9 8 -14 6 / 0 0 0 0
ASX -5 9 -10 8 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
302 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AND NNW TO NW FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
RELATIVELY QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING CLOUD COVER...BUT I
LEANED ON THE GFS AND RAP13 WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUNNIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. I SUSPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND THE AMOUNT COULD AFFECT
THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ALSO...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SE FORECAST
AREA...AND THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING THESE CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD
COVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR PARTS OF
NE MINNESOTA...BUT SINCE I AM NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CLOUD
COVER...I HELD OFF ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT REEVALUATE.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
IN IRON COUNTY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MORE
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. I EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE
WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL BECOME WESTERLY TOMORROW...ENDING THE
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK COLD AND RELATIVELY QUIET.
AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NOT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE NORTHLAND.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. A FEW OTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT TIMES AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS
POINT.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES...THEY ALSO APPEAR LOW FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF ICE...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME OPEN
AREAS. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SHORE IF MORE OF
THE LAKE OPENS UP DUE TO STRONGER WINDS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY
REMAIN FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
2500-4000FT CEILINGS WILL MAINLY IMPACT NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 7000FT DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE
LOWER CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -11 6 -14 7 / 0 0 10 10
INL -18 2 -19 5 / 0 0 10 20
BRD -12 5 -17 6 / 0 0 0 0
HYR -9 8 -14 6 / 0 0 0 0
ASX -5 9 -10 8 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
302 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS CLOUD COVER SINCE THE
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING IT WELL...AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. I LEANED ON THE CLOUDIER SIDE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING SINCE THE OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND UPSTREAM IN CANADA APPEAR TO BE HANGING ON. HOWEVER...I THINK
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL PARTIAL CLEARING TREND LATER TONIGHT DUE
TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT. IF THE PARTIAL CLEARING PANS OUT...THEN THE
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL FAIRLY WELL. I LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT AND WHICH
WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY LOOKS COLDER WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014
A RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN BACK WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGE
FROM TODAY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF ICE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SOME OPEN AREAS IN SPOTS. WE ADDED A MENTION OF
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATION. A SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE TOO LIMITED TO GET ANY SNOW SO
WE KEPT THOSE AREAS DRY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT MAINLY FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE DID ADD
SOME SMALL POPS FOR THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT FRIDAY
DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THAT EXTEND FURTHER
SOUTH BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS
LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
WE KEPT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY. THERE ARE A COUPLE
MORE SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION...BUT THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE
WAVES AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER UPDATES TO ADD ANY POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
CEILINGS FROM AROUND 3000FT TO 4500 FT WERE OCCURRING OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND THEY SHOULD EXPAND TOWARD THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WAS ALSO OCCURRING
UNDER THESE CEILINGS. THE RAP SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -8 6 -12 5 / 0 0 10 10
INL -19 1 -20 2 / 10 0 10 10
BRD -13 5 -13 5 / 0 0 10 10
HYR -8 15 -8 8 / 0 0 10 10
ASX -4 12 -5 8 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ010-011-018-019-025-026-033>035.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1148 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND TEMPERATURES
AND SKY COVER. DRY PATTERN CONTINUES EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COLD
CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER WI AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A DRY/WEAK TROUGH MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS SFC FEATURE WILL MAINLY ACT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
TODAY...WITH NO REAL THREAT OF SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. THE SFC FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST TODAY AND
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER S/W NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THAT
COULD BRUSH THE NRN COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE A
CHALLENGE. WENT WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT.
THERE IS A VERY WEAK WAA SIGNAL INDICATED IN THE 850MB TEMP LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
WILL ALLOW A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS. A WEAK PUSH A COLD AIR MASS TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE IN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. THE AIR MASS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. LOWER TO MID TEENS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NRN WI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
OVERALL QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE REGION AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A H85 LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE DLH CWA
TUES/WED...KEEPING THE ACCUM SNOW ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/IOWA/ILLINOIS
CORRIDOR.
A REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATING AROUND A CUT OFF LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL SINK INTO THE BORDERLAND THURS. A FAST MOVING VORT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE BORDERLAND/ONTARIO THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY...TRIGGERING
VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUM. HAVE KEPT THE FCST
DRY ATTM AS TIMING THESE SMALL DISTURBANCES IS DIFFICULT AND THE
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MORE THAN A TRACE/DUSTING OF SNOW LOOKS TO
REMAINS NORTH OF THE IN TL BORDER.
LATEST GFS/ECM BOTH SUGGEST A LONG WAVE TROUGH/H50 LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE NRN STREAM WAVE/VORT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS THE MOISTURE AND MAIN
AREA OF FORCING REMAINS FOCUS AROUND A STRONG VORT MAX WITH H85
CYCLOGENESIS SITUATED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
CEILINGS FROM AROUND 3000FT TO 4500 FT WERE OCCURRING OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND THEY SHOULD EXPAND TOWARD THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WAS ALSO OCCURRING
UNDER THESE CEILINGS. THE RAP SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 13 -7 8 -11 / 0 0 0 10
INL 11 -17 0 -19 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 14 -9 7 -14 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 17 -4 13 -9 / 0 0 10 10
ASX 17 -2 13 -5 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
922 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 915 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
Updated/raised pops for the overnight hours as upper level vort
slides east through forecast area. Best chances of snow will be
mainly along and north of Missouri River, exiting region after
12z. South of Missouri River will still see some light snow with
patchy freezing drizzle possible, with just a light glazing
expected in this area. As for additional snowfall, another one to
three inches is possible north of Missouri River with highest storm
totals from central MO northeast into west central IL. Lesser
amounts to the south.
Byrd
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
No changes will be made to going warnings/advisories with some
minor changes to snowfall amounts, mainly to account for incoming
reports. The snow spread into the eastern counties this afternoon
with some minor accumulations reported in Fayette county. Some
sleet was reported mixing in with the snow down in Fredericktown
around 1230 pm and more recently in Maeystown in Monroe county
Illinois. Still expect this mix to continue over southeast
Missouri into south central Illinois into mid evening based on
most recent RAP soundings.
To the north and west, moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues
across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois
where visibilities at the observation sites remain in the 1/4 to 1/2
mile range. Latest runs of the HRRR and RAP show that the
deformation zone will continue to produce accumulating snow over the
warning area of into late tonight before the deformation zone lifts
out of the area. Just to the south, snow has been falling since
late morning over parts of southeast and east central Missouri,
though pockets of dry air in the lower atmosphere has hampered it`s
eastward progress. Now dry air is moving in from the southwest
which will begin to cut down on snowfall rates. Have left freezing
drizzle in overnight over the southern half of the CWA overnight has
deep ascent moves out leaving some low level ascent in deep
moisture. Still do not expected there to be enough ice accretion to
include any mention at this point. Also left area of blowing and
drifting snow in the warning area late tonight where the winds will
pick of late tonight. System will lift out of the area early on
Wednesday. Have just a chance of snow over northeastern half of the
CWA on Wednesday morning.
Went on the cooler side of guidance tonight and tomorrow for
temperatures where the deeper snow cover will be.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
The upper flow will deamplify in the wake of the current storm
system with a more progressive flow featuring broad troffing
dominating through at least the end of the week. This will assist
the expansive 1040+ mb Arctic high building into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. The biggest issue during this time
frame is the temperatures. There is quite a range in the MOS with
much of the model 2m temperatures siding with the colder MAV.
Given the amount of fresh snow cover that will reside across the
CWA have sided towards the colder numbers even though ideal
radiational cooling conditions (i.e. light winds) won`t exist in
this time frame. The low ambient air temperatures and even modest
wind will result in dangerous bitterly cold wind chills of -15 to
-25 late Wednesday night-Thursday morning generally along and
north of I-70. Collaboration with surrounding offices resulted in
holding off on wind chill headlines, but these will ultimately be
needed and likely issued once the current storm exits. We will
continue to hammer the message of this bitter cold in the
remainder of our produce suite.
The Arctic high will shift quickly eastward on Thursday night-Friday
night due to the progressive flow. There will also be a good deal of
cloudiness within this flow that will create some havoc with
temperatures and lead to lower confidence in the mins on Thursday
night/Friday morning. We have been carrying some low pops on Thursday
night and I have kept some low/slight chance pops in the forecast
generally along and south of I-70. The NAM, local WRF, and SREF all
show some light QPF associated with a weak impulse in the flow aloft
and attendant weak WAA/lift, while the NAMX and other models dry up
any precipitation as it attempts to spread east from the
southern/central Plains.
The forecast for this weekend is still highly questionable with a
good deal of uncertainty. Model continuity and agreement has been
quite poor and the general pattern the models were showing yesterday
with an amplifying upper trof/low moving through the
southern/central Plains into the lower/mid MS valley region is no
longer present. The general solution today is less amplified overall
and shifted north, with any advertised upper low now over Iowa on
Saturday night. Our forecast represents a multi-model blend with
greater weighting towards the ECMWF and CMC GEM. This would suggest
potential for 2 waves of snow - the first would be a chance of snow
area-wide Friday night due to a lead progressive wave and attendant
WAA, and then another chance Saturday/Saturday night more focused
across the northern CWA associated with the more northern upper
trof/low. Yet another shortwave within the progressive flow could
bring a chance of snow late Monday night-Tuesday. One thing that we
have high confidence in for the extended forecast is that the cold
weather will persist through early next week with a continuation of
below average temperatures.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 812 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
Snow beginning to expand ahead of the upper level disturbance now
entering southwest Missouri. Will see IFR conditions continue at
all terminals overnight with some additional snow accumulation.
Northeast wind to become northwest and become gusty as the system
moves east of the area early Wednesday morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
A band of light to moderate snow has developed across the terminal
and will persist for the next few hours with visibility reduced
below one mile. Another band of snow further southwest near
Springfield will lift northeast and affect the terminal with
similar conditions after 09Z. Finally the upper level disturbance
will bring the last bout of light snow to the terminal around 12Z.
Another one or two inches of snow can be expected through 12Z.
Northeast wind will become northwest as the system passes by.
Gusts to 25 kt possible Wednesday morning.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City
MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-
Fayette IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
820 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
No changes will be made to going warnings/advisories with some
minor changes to snowfall amounts, mainly to account for incoming
reports. The snow spread into the eastern counties this afternoon
with some minor accumulations reported in Fayette county. Some
sleet was reported mixing in with the snow down in Fredericktown
around 1230 pm and more recently in Maeystown in Monroe county
Illinois. Still expect this mix to continue over southeast
Missouri into south central Illinois into mid evening based on
most recent RAP soundings.
To the north and west, moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues
across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois
where visibilities at the observation sites remain in the 1/4 to 1/2
mile range. Latest runs of the HRRR and RAP show that the
deformation zone will continue to produce accumulating snow over the
warning area of into late tonight before the deformation zone lifts
out of the area. Just to the south, snow has been falling since
late morning over parts of southeast and east central Missouri,
though pockets of dry air in the lower atmosphere has hampered it`s
eastward progress. Now dry air is moving in from the southwest
which will begin to cut down on snowfall rates. Have left freezing
drizzle in overnight over the southern half of the CWA overnight has
deep ascent moves out leaving some low level ascent in deep
moisture. Still do not expected there to be enough ice accretion to
include any mention at this point. Also left area of blowing and
drifting snow in the warning area late tonight where the winds will
pick of late tonight. System will lift out of the area early on
Wednesday. Have just a chance of snow over northeastern half of the
CWA on Wednesday morning.
Went on the cooler side of guidance tonight and tomorrow for
temperatures where the deeper snow cover will be.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
The upper flow will deamplify in the wake of the current storm
system with a more progressive flow featuring broad troffing
dominating through at least the end of the week. This will assist
the expansive 1040+ mb Arctic high building into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. The biggest issue during this time
frame is the temperatures. There is quite a range in the MOS with
much of the model 2m temperatures siding with the colder MAV.
Given the amount of fresh snow cover that will reside across the
CWA have sided towards the colder numbers even though ideal
radiational cooling conditions (i.e. light winds) won`t exist in
this time frame. The low ambient air temperatures and even modest
wind will result in dangerous bitterly cold wind chills of -15 to
-25 late Wednesday night-Thursday morning generally along and
north of I-70. Collaboration with surrounding offices resulted in
holding off on wind chill headlines, but these will ultimately be
needed and likely issued once the current storm exits. We will
continue to hammer the message of this bitter cold in the
remainder of our produce suite.
The Arctic high will shift quickly eastward on Thursday night-Friday
night due to the progressive flow. There will also be a good deal of
cloudiness within this flow that will create some havoc with
temperatures and lead to lower confidence in the mins on Thursday
night/Friday morning. We have been carrying some low pops on Thursday
night and I have kept some low/slight chance pops in the forecast
generally along and south of I-70. The NAM, local WRF, and SREF all
show some light QPF associated with a weak impulse in the flow aloft
and attendant weak WAA/lift, while the NAMX and other models dry up
any precipitation as it attempts to spread east from the
southern/central Plains.
The forecast for this weekend is still highly questionable with a
good deal of uncertainty. Model continuity and agreement has been
quite poor and the general pattern the models were showing yesterday
with an amplifying upper trof/low moving through the
southern/central Plains into the lower/mid MS valley region is no
longer present. The general solution today is less amplified overall
and shifted north, with any advertised upper low now over Iowa on
Saturday night. Our forecast represents a multi-model blend with
greater weighting towards the ECMWF and CMC GEM. This would suggest
potential for 2 waves of snow - the first would be a chance of snow
area-wide Friday night due to a lead progressive wave and attendant
WAA, and then another chance Saturday/Saturday night more focused
across the northern CWA associated with the more northern upper
trof/low. Yet another shortwave within the progressive flow could
bring a chance of snow late Monday night-Tuesday. One thing that we
have high confidence in for the extended forecast is that the cold
weather will persist through early next week with a continuation of
below average temperatures.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 812 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
Snow beginning to expand ahead of the upper level disturbance now
entering southwest Missouri. Will see IFR conditions continue at
all terminals overnight with some additional snow accumulation.
Northeast wind to become northwest and become gusty as the system
moves east of the area early Wednesday morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
A band of light to moderate snow has developed across the terminal
and will persist for the next few hours with visibility reduced
below one mile. Another band of snow further southwest near
Springfield will lift northeast and affect the terminal with
similar conditions after 09Z. Finally the upper level disturbance
will bring the last bout of light snow to the terminal around 12Z.
Another one or two inches of snow can be expected through 12Z.
Northeast wind will become northwest as the system passes by.
Gusts to 25 kt possible Wednesday morning.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City
MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-
Fayette IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
454 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
No changes will be made to going warnings/advisories with some
minor changes to snowfall amounts, mainly to account for incoming
reports. The snow spread into the eastern counties this afternoon
with some minor accumulations reported in Fayette county. Some
sleet was reported mixing in with the snow down in Fredericktown
around 1230 pm and more recently in Maeystown in Monroe county
Illinois. Still expect this mix to continue over southeast
Missouri into south central Illinois into mid evening based on
most recent RAP soundings.
To the north and west, moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues
across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois
where visibilities at the observation sites remain in the 1/4 to 1/2
mile range. Latest runs of the HRRR and RAP show that the
deformation zone will continue to produce accumulating snow over the
warning area of into late tonight before the deformation zone lifts
out of the area. Just to the south, snow has been falling since
late morning over parts of southeast and east central Missouri,
though pockets of dry air in the lower atmosphere has hampered it`s
eastward progress. Now dry air is moving in from the southwest
which will begin to cut down on snowfall rates. Have left freezing
drizzle in overnight over the southern half of the CWA overnight has
deep ascent moves out leaving some low level ascent in deep
moisture. Still do not expected there to be enough ice accretion to
include any mention at this point. Also left area of blowing and
drifting snow in the warning area late tonight where the winds will
pick of late tonight. System will lift out of the area early on
Wednesday. Have just a chance of snow over northeastern half of the
CWA on Wednesday morning.
Went on the cooler side of guidance tonight and tomorrow for
temperatures where the deeper snow cover will be.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
The upper flow will deamplify in the wake of the current storm
system with a more progressive flow featuring broad troffing
dominating through at least the end of the week. This will assist
the expansive 1040+ mb Arctic high building into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. The biggest issue during this time
frame is the temperatures. There is quite a range in the MOS with
much of the model 2m temperatures siding with the colder MAV.
Given the amount of fresh snow cover that will reside across the
CWA have sided towards the colder numbers even though ideal
radiational cooling conditions (i.e. light winds) won`t exist in
this time frame. The low ambient air temperatures and even modest
wind will result in dangerous bitterly cold wind chills of -15 to
-25 late Wednesday night-Thursday morning generally along and
north of I-70. Collaboration with surrounding offices resulted in
holding off on wind chill headlines, but these will ultimately be
needed and likely issued once the current storm exits. We will
continue to hammer the message of this bitter cold in the
remainder of our produce suite.
The Arctic high will shift quickly eastward on Thursday night-Friday
night due to the progressive flow. There will also be a good deal of
cloudiness within this flow that will create some havoc with
temperatures and lead to lower confidence in the mins on Thursday
night/Friday morning. We have been carrying some low pops on Thursday
night and I have kept some low/slight chance pops in the forecast
generally along and south of I-70. The NAM, local WRF, and SREF all
show some light QPF associated with a weak impulse in the flow aloft
and attendant weak WAA/lift, while the NAMX and other models dry up
any precipitation as it attempts to spread east from the
southern/central Plains.
The forecast for this weekend is still highly questionable with a
good deal of uncertainty. Model continuity and agreement has been
quite poor and the general pattern the models were showing yesterday
with an amplifying upper trof/low moving through the
southern/central Plains into the lower/mid MS valley region is no
longer present. The general solution today is less amplified overall
and shifted north, with any advertised upper low now over Iowa on
Saturday night. Our forecast represents a multi-model blend with
greater weighting towards the ECMWF and CMC GEM. This would suggest
potential for 2 waves of snow - the first would be a chance of snow
area-wide Friday night due to a lead progressive wave and attendant
WAA, and then another chance Saturday/Saturday night more focused
across the northern CWA associated with the more northern upper
trof/low. Yet another shortwave within the progressive flow could
bring a chance of snow late Monday night-Tuesday. One thing that we
have high confidence in for the extended forecast is that the cold
weather will persist through early next week with a continuation of
below average temperatures.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 434 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
Dry mid level air wrapping around the storm system from the
south/southwest has led to a decrease in snow intensity across
southwest and south central Missouri. This trend should continue
eastward across the remainder of southern Missouri and into southern
Illinois early this evening as the first part of the storm system
shifts east of the forecast area. Light snow or flurries will
continue across the southern zones, with light additional
accumulation.
Meanwhile, moderate to heavy snow will continue along and north of
Interstate 70 this evening as the upper level disturbance moves
due east across the region. Here deformation snow will bring
significant additional accumulation that will affect terminals
with IFR conditions and snow plowing operations.
Snow will taper to flurries and snow showers on Wednesday with
northwest wind increasing and becoming gusty.
Specifics for KSTL:
Moderate snow will taper to light snow early this evening as dry
air at the mid levels of the atmosphere works its way east across
the terminal ahead of the upper level disturbance. Periods of
light snow are expected to continue tonight, with snow showers or
flurries on Wednesday. An east wind will become northwest
overnight and become gusty on Wednesday. An additional inch or two of
snow accumulation is expected tonight.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City
MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1152 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2014
Cold high pressure will control our weather today, with a gradual
increase of high clouds expected during the afternoon. No major
changes to going temp trends, although did shave a couple of degrees
off on mid Missouri and the eastern Ozarks due to the cold start and
the increase of high clouds during the time of "max heating"...such
as it is in early February beneath a Canadian high...
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 459 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2014
There are four primary forecast issues during this period: a winter
storm for Tu/Tu night, another Arctic air mass for W/Th, a weak vort
max moving across the area on Th/F, and another potential storm
system for Sa/Su.
Issue #1, winter storm for Tu/Tu night: Early morning water vapor
imagery and recent RAP analyses of the 1.5 PVU surface all show a
strong low pressure system just off the SoCal coast. The system was
partially sampled by 03/00z RAOBs in CA, but this feature`s path
through northern Mexico will likely preclude full sampling until it
reaches western TX around 12z Tu. This means that 1) models will
likely struggle to capture the true strength of the system, 2)
model depictions of the H5/H85/sfc low tracks may shift around a
bit, leading to changes in the forecast onset of precipitation as
well as changes to ptypes across southeast MO/southern IL, and 3)
last minute forecast adjustments to the axis of heaviest snowfall
may be required after the 12z models come in on Tue because those
runs will have incorporated the most recent upper air
observations.
Recent SREF/NAM/WRF/ECMWF/GEM runs depict H85 low tracks which match
very well with local climatology studies for heavy snowfall across
the northwest 1/3 of the CWA. BUFKIT soundings at KUIN, for example,
show a favorable cross-hair signature of rising motion within or
just below the DGZ occurring in an environment that is saturated wrt
ice. With at least ~50% confidence in heavy snow somewhere in the
northern or western part of the CWA, we have issued a Winter Storm
Watch (includes the Quincy and Columbia areas) from 12z Tue
through 12z Wed. The combination of initial WAA snow on Tue
followed by enhanced precipitation in the deformation zone on Tue
night could lead to snowfall totals of 6+" in or near this area.
Lesser snowfall totals (1-5") are possible across the rest of the
CWA (including the St. Louis metro area) due to WAA snow. Mixed
precipitation (including freezing rain and sleet) remains possible
on Tue, especially across the southeastern one-quarter of the CWA.
Any occurrence of sleet or freezing rain will reduce snowfall
totals. At this time, ice accretion of between a light glaze and
0.10" appears possible across the extreme southeastern CWA. Please
see the winter snow & ice graphics at
www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=stormtotalsnow for details.
Snow should taper off from west to east on late Tue night with some
lingering flurries possible on Wed afternoon.
Issue #2, Arctic air mass for W/Th: A 1040+ hPa surface high will
slide into the Plains on Tue night into Wed. The coldest
temperatures are expected from late Wed night into Thu morning,
especially over areas which will have received fresh snow cover.
Wind chill headlines may eventually be needed for northern portions
of the CWA due to wind chill values between -20 and -15 deg F from
late Wed night into Thu morning.
Issue #3, weak vort max for Th/F: Most models hint at a weak vort
max zipping through confluent flow aloft on Thu/Fri. There may be
enough forcing to squeeze out some light precipitation.
Issue #4, potential storm system for Sa/Su: ECMWF/GFS/GEM depict
the development of a highly elongated E-W trough/shear zone
spanning from OR to ME. A vort max peels off the western end near
WA/OR on Thu night and dives southeastward before swinging through
the south central CONUS over the weekend. This is a different
scenario compared to previous model runs which brought the
shortwave onshore from the Pacific. Chc PoPs are acceptable albeit
not preferable given this level of uncertainty at the end of the
extended forecast period.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2014
VFR flight conditions and light east-northeast flow will continue
to prevail for the rest of the day and for at least the majority
of tonight. A storm system will move from the Great Plains into
the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. IFR flight conditions in low
stratus and snow will overspread the area from the west through
the day. Timing and intensity remains uncertain, but the lowest
conditions/most intense snow will likely occur along and north of
the I-44/I-70 corridor. Further south, there will be a mix of
freezing rain and snow. Once precipitation begins, expect IFR
flight conditions to prevail at least into the daytime hours of
Wednesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions and light east-northeast flow will continue
to prevail at Lambert through at least Tuesday morning. A storm
system will move from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley
on Tuesday. IFR flight conditions in low stratus and snow will
overspread the area from the west through the day. Timing and
intensity remains uncertain, but the lowest conditions/most intense
snow will likely occur along and north of the I-44/I-70 corridor.
For Lambert, it appears that snow will begin during the early
afternoon. Latest guidance indicates that there will be an initial
burst of intense snow in the afternoon, and then the intensity
will decrease in the evening. Once the snow starts, expect IFR
conditions to prevail at least into the daytime hours of
Wednesday.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
night FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
night FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
534 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2014
Cold high pressure will control our weather today, with a gradual
increase of high clouds expected during the afternoon. No major
changes to going temp trends, although did shave a couple of degrees
off on mid Missouri and the eastern Ozarks due to the cold start and
the increase of high clouds during the time of "max heating"...such
as it is in early February beneath a Canadian high...
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 459 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2014
There are four primary forecast issues during this period: a winter
storm for Tu/Tu night, another Arctic air mass for W/Th, a weak vort
max moving across the area on Th/F, and another potential storm
system for Sa/Su.
Issue #1, winter storm for Tu/Tu night: Early morning water vapor
imagery and recent RAP analyses of the 1.5 PVU surface all show a
strong low pressure system just off the SoCal coast. The system was
partially sampled by 03/00z RAOBs in CA, but this feature`s path
through northern Mexico will likely preclude full sampling until it
reaches western TX around 12z Tu. This means that 1) models will
likely struggle to capture the true strength of the system, 2)
model depictions of the H5/H85/sfc low tracks may shift around a
bit, leading to changes in the forecast onset of precipitation as
well as changes to ptypes across southeast MO/southern IL, and 3)
last minute forecast adjustments to the axis of heaviest snowfall
may be required after the 12z models come in on Tue because those
runs will have incorporated the most recent upper air
observations.
Recent SREF/NAM/WRF/ECMWF/GEM runs depict H85 low tracks which match
very well with local climatology studies for heavy snowfall across
the northwest 1/3 of the CWA. BUFKIT soundings at KUIN, for example,
show a favorable cross-hair signature of rising motion within or
just below the DGZ occurring in an environment that is saturated wrt
ice. With at least ~50% confidence in heavy snow somewhere in the
northern or western part of the CWA, we have issued a Winter Storm
Watch (includes the Quincy and Columbia areas) from 12z Tue
through 12z Wed. The combination of initial WAA snow on Tue
followed by enhanced precipitation in the deformation zone on Tue
night could lead to snowfall totals of 6+" in or near this area.
Lesser snowfall totals (1-5") are possible across the rest of the
CWA (including the St. Louis metro area) due to WAA snow. Mixed
precipitation (including freezing rain and sleet) remains possible
on Tue, especially across the southeastern one-quarter of the CWA.
Any occurrence of sleet or freezing rain will reduce snowfall
totals. At this time, ice accretion of between a light glaze and
0.10" appears possible across the extreme southeastern CWA. Please
see the winter snow & ice graphics at
www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=stormtotalsnow for details.
Snow should taper off from west to east on late Tue night with some
lingering flurries possible on Wed afternoon.
Issue #2, Arctic air mass for W/Th: A 1040+ hPa surface high will
slide into the Plains on Tue night into Wed. The coldest
temperatures are expected from late Wed night into Thu morning,
especially over areas which will have received fresh snow cover.
Wind chill headlines may eventually be needed for northern portions
of the CWA due to wind chill values between -20 and -15 deg F from
late Wed night into Thu morning.
Issue #3, weak vort max for Th/F: Most models hint at a weak vort
max zipping through confluent flow aloft on Thu/Fri. There may be
enough forcing to squeeze out some light precipitation.
Issue #4, potential storm system for Sa/Su: ECMWF/GFS/GEM depict
the development of a highly elongated E-W trough/shear zone
spanning from OR to ME. A vort max peels off the western end near
WA/OR on Thu night and dives southeastward before swinging through
the south central CONUS over the weekend. This is a different
scenario compared to previous model runs which brought the
shortwave onshore from the Pacific. Chc PoPs are acceptable albeit
not preferable given this level of uncertainty at the end of the
extended forecast period.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2014
VFR conditions will hold throughout this TAF cycle as Canadian
high slowly drifts east, with light northeast to east winds aob 6 kts.
There should be an increase in high level clouds this afternoon
and into tonight, but all ceilings should remain aoa 8kft. Early
indications are that cigs/vsbys will deteriorate fairly rapidly
into IFR over mid Missouri in the 12-15z time frame on Tuesday
with the developing snow, with these lower conditions pushing into
UIN by late morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Just a few afternoon cirrus clouds and
and north to northeast winds aob 6kts are expected today as the
Canadian high pushes into the lower Great Lakes. VFR conditions
will continue tonight as mid level clouds gradually thicken in
advance of Tuesday`s storm system, but at this time it appears that
the onset of the snow (and IFR cigs/vsbys) in STL may be delayed
until midday Tuesday as strong mid level lift will have to
saturate some very dry low level air before precip reaches the
ground. Snow still appears to be the dominate ptype, although some
sleet cannot totally be ruled out as models often seem to underestimate
the strength of the lower tropospheric WAA.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
night FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
night FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
509 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2014
Cold high pressure will control our weather today, with a gradual
increase of high clouds expected during the afternoon. No major
changes to going temp trends, although did shave a couple of degrees
off on mid Missouri and the eastern Ozarks due to the cold start and
the increase of high clouds during the time of "max heating"...such
as it is in early February beneath a Canadian high...
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 459 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2014
There are four primary forecast issues during this period: a winter
storm for Tu/Tu night, another Arctic air mass for W/Th, a weak vort
max moving across the area on Th/F, and another potential storm
system for Sa/Su.
Issue #1, winter storm for Tu/Tu night: Early morning water vapor
imagery and recent RAP analyses of the 1.5 PVU surface all show a
strong low pressure system just off the SoCal coast. The system was
partially sampled by 03/00z RAOBs in CA, but this feature`s path
through northern Mexico will likely preclude full sampling until it
reaches western TX around 12z Tu. This means that 1) models will
likely struggle to capture the true strength of the system, 2)
model depictions of the H5/H85/sfc low tracks may shift around a
bit, leading to changes in the forecast onset of precipitation as
well as changes to ptypes across southeast MO/southern IL, and 3)
last minute forecast adjustments to the axis of heaviest snowfall
may be required after the 12z models come in on Tue because those
runs will have incorporated the most recent upper air
observations.
Recent SREF/NAM/WRF/ECMWF/GEM runs depict H85 low tracks which match
very well with local climatology studies for heavy snowfall across
the northwest 1/3 of the CWA. BUFKIT soundings at KUIN, for example,
show a favorable cross-hair signature of rising motion within or
just below the DGZ occurring in an environment that is saturated wrt
ice. With at least ~50% confidence in heavy snow somewhere in the
northern or western part of the CWA, we have issued a Winter Storm
Watch (includes the Quincy and Columbia areas) from 12z Tue
through 12z Wed. The combination of initial WAA snow on Tue
followed by enhanced precipitation in the deformation zone on Tue
night could lead to snowfall totals of 6+" in or near this area.
Lesser snowfall totals (1-5") are possible across the rest of the
CWA (including the St. Louis metro area) due to WAA snow. Mixed
precipitation (including freezing rain and sleet) remains possible
on Tue, especially across the southeastern one-quarter of the CWA.
Any occurrence of sleet or freezing rain will reduce snowfall
totals. At this time, ice accretion of between a light glaze and
0.10" appears possible across the extreme southeastern CWA. Please
see the winter snow & ice graphics at
www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=stormtotalsnow for details.
Snow should taper off from west to east on late Tue night with some
lingering flurries possible on Wed afternoon.
Issue #2, Arctic air mass for W/Th: A 1040+ hPa surface high will
slide into the Plains on Tue night into Wed. The coldest
temperatures are expected from late Wed night into Thu morning,
especially over areas which will have received fresh snow cover.
Wind chill headlines may eventually be needed for northern portions
of the CWA due to wind chill values between -20 and -15 deg F from
late Wed night into Thu morning.
Issue #3, weak vort max for Th/F: Most models hint at a weak vort
max zipping through confluent flow aloft on Thu/Fri. There may be
enough forcing to squeeze out some light precipitation.
Issue #4, potential storm system for Sa/Su: ECMWF/GFS/GEM depict
the development of a highly elongated E-W trough/shear zone
spanning from OR to ME. A vort max peels off the western end near
WA/OR on Thu night and dives southeastward before swinging through
the south central CONUS over the weekend. This is a different
scenario compared to previous model runs which brought the
shortwave onshore from the Pacific. Chc PoPs are acceptable albeit
not preferable given this level of uncertainty at the end of the
extended forecast period.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1014 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2014
Mid-high level cloudiness has shifted se of UIN and COU this evng
and will continue to clear from nw to se late tgt out of the St
Louis metro area as the storm system s/se of our region shifts
further se, and a surface ridge extending from nern KS ne into
swrn WI and nwrn IL shifts slowly sewd. The broken low level
stratus clouds around 1300 ft in CPS should dissipate or advect
further se as the boundary layer moisture becomes more shallow.
Nly surface wind at STL and CPS will continue to weaken and become
lgt late tgt as they have already at the other taf sites, then
veer around to an e-nely direction Monday as the surface ridge
shifts east of the region. Mid-high level clouds will spread back
into the area Monday evng.
Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will shift e-se of
STL late tgt. Nly surface wind will become lgt late tgt, then
veer around to an e-nely direction by Monday aftn or evng, albeit
remaining weak. Mid-high level clouds will spread back into the
area Monday evng with the cloud ceiling lowering late Monday ngt.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
night FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
night FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1200 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLATTE VALLEY THIS MORNING NEAR KOGA/NEDOR CAM AT OGALLALA. THE SNOW
FIELD HAS DEFIED ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS AND MAINTAINED A WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. NOT EVEN THE
RAP13 CAPTURES THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING. SO DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR KEITH AND DEUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z THIS AM.
A WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING BUT IT IS ACROSS ERN
COLO/NWRN KS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO WRN NEB
LATER TODAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EDMONTON
ALBERTA...MOVES INTO MT. THIS FRONT WILL MERELY RECYCLE COLD AIR
NORTH WITH SOUTHEAST WIND AND VERY LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING.
BUT THERE IS MORE. THE NAM...GEM REGIONAL...RAP13 AND HRRR POOL
MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PRODUCE SNOW AS THE FRONT LIFTS
INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SUGGEST
FLURRIES WHILE THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS. HMMM...GIVEN THAT THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE CORRECTLY
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR ON THE SNOW COVER AND SKY CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR GROUND FOG...THE FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN
TODAY BUT WE WILL TRY A 30 POP FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. FORECAST ERRORS COULD BE LARGE WITH THIS ONE.
FCST HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST
TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND EAST WHERE NO SNOW IS ON THE GROUND.
FOR TONIGHT...GET READY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST
AREA. THE FRONT IS A SLOW MOVER AND SFC WINDS BACK AROUND AND BECOME
NORTHEAST PRODUCING UPSLOPE WINDS AND A RAPID INCREASE IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 700 MB. TEMPERATURES 850MB-700MB FALL TO AROUND -14C
BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTING SNOW GROWTH WHILE THE UPSLOPE WINDS
PRODUCE WEAK LIFT. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 50 PERCENT BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND 15F
SOUTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CENTERS ON A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW MID-WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE WILL ROTATE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST QPF AND BEST
SNOW POTENTIAL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. HOWEVER
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORT OF INCREASING DPVA AND WEAK UPGLIDE
TARGETING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST ANTICIPATED QPF ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BE FOUND
FROM SW NEB THROUGH SOUTHERN CUSTER COUNTY...BUT AT THAT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS ONLY SUGGESTS ~0.15" TOTAL QPF /WHICH IS DEEMED TOO
HIGH/. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THIS AREA REVEAL A FAIRLY
EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCING PROFILE AS A LARGE COLUMN OF SATURATED
AIR WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITHIN OMEGA AND FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES OF
-10 TO -18C. USING A 15-17:1 SLR INDICATES TWO OR THREE INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
FURTHER WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS REGION...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM USHERS A TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. QPF WILL BE
LIGHTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH SLR/S AND THE
POTENTIAL OF 12+ HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW...AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT
SNOW...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY. ATTM THE STRONGEST GUSTS /UP TO 25 MPH/
TUESDAY LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
DRY AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE AND FORCING
SPREADS EAST.
ONTO TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEEK...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS OF ONLY 8-15 ABOVE
ZERO. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM COMPARED TO THE OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...H85 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 22 OR
COLDER WILL BE ATOP THE REGION...WITH WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO SFC
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...AND POSSIBLY THIS ENTIRE WINTER
SEASON. RIGHT NOW MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF
MINUS 5 TO MINUS 15 FROM EAST TO WEST RESPECTIVELY...WHICH MAY BE
WARM GIVEN THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH AND POTENTIAL
FRESH SNOWPACK. TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME TOWARD THE BCGEMREG /DUE TO ITS RECENT
PERFORMANCE/ AND THE ADJMEXBC AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE HEADING IN THE
RIGHT DIRECTION. WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ANY AMOUNT OF
WIND WOULD ALLOW FOR CRITICALLY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS TROUGH IS SHOWN TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH MOST OF
IT/S ENERGY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
AFTERNOON DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW.
WINDS NOT THAT STRONG JUST YET AND LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED FROM
THE SNOW AS CIGS/VSBY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR. OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW A TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATION SNOW. COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG IN
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE START
TIME OF THE SNOW UNCERTAIN AS A MID DRY LAYER WILL HAVE TO BE
OVERCOME FIRST...OTHERWISE CIGS AND VSBY DROP TO MVFR AND AT
TIMES IFR WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
530 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLATTE VALLEY THIS MORNING NEAR KOGA/NEDOR CAM AT OGALLALA. THE SNOW
FIELD HAS DEFIED ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS AND MAINTAINED A WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. NOT EVEN THE
RAP13 CAPTURES THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING. SO DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR KEITH AND DEUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z THIS AM.
A WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING BUT IT IS ACROSS ERN
COLO/NWRN KS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO WRN NEB
LATER TODAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EDMONTON
ALBERTA...MOVES INTO MT. THIS FRONT WILL MERELY RECYCLE COLD AIR
NORTH WITH SOUTHEAST WIND AND VERY LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING.
BUT THERE IS MORE. THE NAM...GEM REGIONAL...RAP13 AND HRRR POOL
MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PRODUCE SNOW AS THE FRONT LIFTS
INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SUGGEST
FLURRIES WHILE THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS. HMMM...GIVEN THAT THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE CORRECTLY
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR ON THE SNOW COVER AND SKY CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR GROUND FOG...THE FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN
TODAY BUT WE WILL TRY A 30 POP FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. FORECAST ERRORS COULD BE LARGE WITH THIS ONE.
FCST HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST
TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND EAST WHERE NO SNOW IS ON THE GROUND.
FOR TONIGHT...GET READY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST
AREA. THE FRONT IS A SLOW MOVER AND SFC WINDS BACK AROUND AND BECOME
NORTHEAST PRODUCING UPSLOPE WINDS AND A RAPID INCREASE IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 700 MB. TEMPERATURES 850MB-700MB FALL TO AROUND -14C
BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTING SNOW GROWTH WHILE THE UPSLOPE WINDS
PRODUCE WEAK LIFT. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 50 PERCENT BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND 15F
SOUTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CENTERS ON A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW MID-WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE WILL ROTATE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST QPF AND BEST
SNOW POTENTIAL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. HOWEVER
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORT OF INCREASING DPVA AND WEAK UPGLIDE
TARGETING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST ANTICIPATED QPF ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BE FOUND
FROM SW NEB THROUGH SOUTHERN CUSTER COUNTY...BUT AT THAT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS ONLY SUGGESTS ~0.15" TOTAL QPF /WHICH IS DEEMED TOO
HIGH/. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THIS AREA REVEAL A FAIRLY
EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCING PROFILE AS A LARGE COLUMN OF SATURATED
AIR WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITHIN OMEGA AND FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES OF
-10 TO -18C. USING A 15-17:1 SLR INDICATES TWO OR THREE INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
FURTHER WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS REGION...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM USHERS A TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. QPF WILL BE
LIGHTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH SLR/S AND THE
POTENTIAL OF 12+ HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW...AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT
SNOW...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY. ATTM THE STRONGEST GUSTS /UP TO 25 MPH/
TUESDAY LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
DRY AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE AND FORCING
SPREADS EAST.
ONTO TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEEK...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS OF ONLY 8-15 ABOVE
ZERO. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM COMPARED TO THE OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...H85 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 22 OR
COLDER WILL BE ATOP THE REGION...WITH WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO SFC
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...AND POSSIBLY THIS ENTIRE WINTER
SEASON. RIGHT NOW MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF
MINUS 5 TO MINUS 15 FROM EAST TO WEST RESPECTIVELY...WHICH MAY BE
WARM GIVEN THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH AND POTENTIAL
FRESH SNOWPACK. TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME TOWARD THE BCGEMREG /DUE TO ITS RECENT
PERFORMANCE/ AND THE ADJMEXBC AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE HEADING IN THE
RIGHT DIRECTION. WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ANY AMOUNT OF
WIND WOULD ALLOW FOR CRITICALLY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS TROUGH IS SHOWN TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH MOST OF
IT/S ENERGY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN SOME WAYS TODAY. ONE IS THAT THE
MODELS ARE FCST WIDESPREAD MVFR TODAY BUT THERE IS NONE SHOWN ON
THE SATELLITE CURRENTLY. ANOTHER WAY IS THE BANK OF OVC060 CLOUDS
OVER KLBF ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH...EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND PRODUCE MVFR AND LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST TODAY IS FOR AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING ACROSS NCNTL
NEB EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH LOCAL IFR IN SHSN. THE LIFR ACROSS
KOGA SHOW LIFT TO VFR 15Z-16Z. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY.
TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS SRN ALBERTA WILL BE ROLLING
THROUGH THE FCST AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LIGHT
SNOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD WITH THIS PORTION FOR THE
AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ056-057.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
402 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLATTE VALLEY THIS MORNING NEAR KOGA/NEDOR CAM AT OGALLALA. THE SNOW
FIELD HAS DEFIED ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS AND MAINTAINED A WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. NOT EVEN THE
RAP13 CAPTURES THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING. SO DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR KEITH AND DEUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z THIS AM.
A WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING BUT IT IS ACROSS ERN
COLO/NWRN KS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO WRN NEB
LATER TODAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EDMONTON
ALBERTA...MOVES INTO MT. THIS FRONT WILL MERELY RECYCLE COLD AIR
NORTH WITH SOUTHEAST WIND AND VERY LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING.
BUT THERE IS MORE. THE NAM...GEM REGIONAL...RAP13 AND HRRR POOL
MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PRODUCE SNOW AS THE FRONT LIFTS
INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SUGGEST
FLURRIES WHILE THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS. HMMM...GIVEN THAT THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE CORRECTLY
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR ON THE SNOW COVER AND SKY CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR GROUND FOG...THE FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN
TODAY BUT WE WILL TRY A 30 POP FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. FORECAST ERRORS COULD BE LARGE WITH THIS ONE.
FCST HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST
TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND EAST WHERE NO SNOW IS ON THE GROUND.
FOR TONIGHT...GET READY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST
AREA. THE FRONT IS A SLOW MOVER AND SFC WINDS BACK AROUND AND BECOME
NORTHEAST PRODUCING UPSLOPE WINDS AND A RAPID INCREASE IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 700 MB. TEMPERATURES 850MB-700MB FALL TO AROUND -14C
BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTING SNOW GROWTH WHILE THE UPSLOPE WINDS
PRODUCE WEAK LIFT. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 50 PERCENT BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND 15F
SOUTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CENTERS ON A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW MID-WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE WILL ROTATE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST QPF AND BEST
SNOW POTENTIAL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. HOWEVER
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORT OF INCREASING DPVA AND WEAK UPGLIDE
TARGETING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST ANTICIPATED QPF ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BE FOUND
FROM SW NEB THROUGH SOUTHERN CUSTER COUNTY...BUT AT THAT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS ONLY SUGGESTS ~0.15" TOTAL QPF /WHICH IS DEEMED TOO
HIGH/. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THIS AREA REVEAL A FAIRLY
EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCING PROFILE AS A LARGE COLUMN OF SATURATED
AIR WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITHIN OMEGA AND FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES OF
-10 TO -18C. USING A 15-17:1 SLR INDICATES TWO OR THREE INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
FURTHER WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS REGION...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM USHERS A TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. QPF WILL BE
LIGHTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH SLR/S AND THE
POTENTIAL OF 12+ HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW...AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT
SNOW...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY. ATTM THE STRONGEST GUSTS /UP TO 25 MPH/
TUESDAY LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
DRY AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE AND FORCING
SPREADS EAST.
ONTO TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WEEK...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS OF ONLY 8-15 ABOVE
ZERO. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM COMPARED TO THE OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...H85 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 22 OR
COLDER WILL BE ATOP THE REGION...WITH WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO SFC
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...AND POSSIBLY THIS ENTIRE WINTER
SEASON. RIGHT NOW MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF
MINUS 5 TO MINUS 15 FROM EAST TO WEST RESPECTIVELY...WHICH MAY BE
WARM GIVEN THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH AND POTENTIAL
FRESH SNOWPACK. TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME TOWARD THE BCGEMREG /DUE TO ITS RECENT
PERFORMANCE/ AND THE ADJMEXBC AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE HEADING IN THE
RIGHT DIRECTION. WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ANY AMOUNT OF
WIND WOULD ALLOW FOR CRITICALLY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS TROUGH IS SHOWN TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH MOST OF
IT/S ENERGY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES. CEILINGS WILL LOWER FURTHER ON
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. BY MONDAY EVENING...CEILINGS WILL
APPROACH MVFR LEVELS WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE KVTN TERMINAL AFTER 02Z
TUESDAY. VISBYS MAY DROP DOWN TO 4SM WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW WHICH
FALLS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ056-057.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...HOURLY RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH
ALABAMA/GEORGIA EXTENDING OFF THE COAST AND LIFTING GRADUALLY
NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH THE EXCEPT THAT THE SREF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER INLAND WITH THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
PERIOD WILL START WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE AREA WITH
EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WITH COASTAL TROUGHING WARM FRONT TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...GIVING US A NON-STANDARD TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH COOLEST
TEMPERATURES AROUND 4 TO 5Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE TYPE CURVE IN THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG INVERSION CONTINUES
FOR OVERCAST SKIES. SOUNDINGS SHOW BREAKING OUT OF THIS AROUND
SUNRISE AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY WITH STRATFORM RAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUE...WILL GET OUT OF THE WEDGE TYPE SCENARIO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SATURATED
SOUNDINGS SO SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SHOWERY AS FRONT GETS CLOSER. SOME INSTABILITY EVIDENT WITH WEAK
LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE 5H FLOW. BREEZES WILL PICK UP
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. FRONT WILL STAY WEST
OF AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING OFFSHORE AND
SURFACE RIDGE BUILD EAST...THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE NICEST DAY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RESUME BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE NAM12 IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER
SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHC
POPS FRIDAY...WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. BY
SATURDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA WITH THE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. GOOD FLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA
ON SUNDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN CWA AND HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER THERE...IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY...WITH HIGH CHANCE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OFFSHORE WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL NO BETTER THAN MVFR. WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST. SOME SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN TAF SITES ON FRIDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. BY SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...PRESENTLY WINDS ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND
10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS ARE AVERAGING 6-7 FEET. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
VEER TO SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN
AND FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE SUNRISE AS WATERS COME
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND WILL RUN 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PAMLICO SOUND MAY
REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE SCA AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL...SEAS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z FRIDAY AND HAVE EXTENDED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO COVER THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...SEAS BUILD ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST
SATURDAY AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/CTC
MARINE...HSA/CGG/CTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER AIR.
THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN RETURN
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER TODAY AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH REACHING THE
CAPE FEAR COAST AROUND SUNSET.
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRODUCING GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP AROUND 70 MOST PLACES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THIS WARMER MOISTURE RICH
AIR MOVING OVER THE COOLER COASTAL WATERS PRODUCED SOME DENSE FOG
OVER THE WATERS AND JUST ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITIES JUST ALONG
THE COAST REMAINED VARIABLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WERE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO A MORE W-SW DIRECTION WHICH WILL HELP TO
PUSH SEA FOG AWAY FROM THE COAST. PLACES FURTHER INLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT
WILL ALSO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS A MORE CONVECTIVE
TYPE ATMOSPHERE EXISTS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FAIRLY DECENT
CAP PRESENT UP AROUND 15K FT. HRRR DEPICTING THE EVOLUTION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY QUITE WELL SO FAR AND IT DOES SHOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OUT AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT ALONG
FRONT ITSELF. THIS SHOULD REACH INTO OUR NW PORTIONS OF CWA INTO
ROBESON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES BY 4PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST REACHING THE CAPE FEAR COAST AROUND SUNSET.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT ITSELF AS ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT
BASICALLY LOW TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST IN THE BENNETTSVILLE-LUMBERTON AREA AND LOWEST
ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER.
FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF OUR PATTERN...ANOTHER
LOW QUICKLY FOLLOWS IN ITS PATH. THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN INTO
TEXAS BY EARLY TUES MORNING WILL ACT TO BUILD THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHARPENING THE FLOW ALOFT AND MAINTAINING A
PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT. A VERY STEEP INVERSION WILL SET UP WITH
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING THE WAY TO LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT
POPS AS IS WHICH DEPICT THE PROGRESSION OF THE PCP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT VERY WELL AND THEN ALLOW FOR OVERRUNNING OF WARM HUMID AIR
OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR TO PRODUCE MORE STABLE PCP OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES MORNING.
TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD 20 TO 30 DEGREES IN SHALLOW CAA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH DOWN JUST BELOW 40 OVER MOST
INLAND AND NORTH CAROLINA ZONES BUT WHILE DOWN ALONG THE NORTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM GRAND STRAND SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM MONDAY...A VERY PROGRESSIVE SERIES OF FRONTAL
PASSAGES WILL KEEP IN THE CHANCES FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION THROUGH
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE SHORT TERM. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN OVER-
RUNNING PATTERN IN PLACE...BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR TUESDAY. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PATTERN WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE ON TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONFIRM
WHAT ONE WOULD EXPECT IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHUT
DOWN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA...WITH P/W
VALUES DROPPING FROM THE 1.25 INCH RANGE PRE-FROPA TO UNDER A HALF
AN INCH POST-FROPA.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW WIDE SWINGS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER AND MID 50S ALONG THE COAST AS
A COOL AND MOIST WEDGE HOLDS ON OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A COMPLEX AND
LONG-LASTING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...CREATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. WHILE THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A WEDGE-
TYPE RIDGE...TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMO THANKS TO CAA
BEHIND A STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS ATOP THE STRENGTHENING WEDGE. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...BUT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MORE INTENSE
FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCES DUE TO STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SW FLOW
DOWNWIND OF A DEEPENING 5H TROUGH WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE MTN
WEST BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE NATION AND
SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DURING THE WKND. MODELS
SUGGEST A MILLER-B TYPE SCENARIO SAT-MON...AND ALTHOUGH TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AMONG THE GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS A VERY
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER AND PERIODS OF RAINFALL...POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. WPC
HAS PAINTED 1-2" OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY...AND MOS
P-NUMBERS ARE ALREADY IN THE LIKELY RANGE. WILL RAISE POP TO HIGH-
CHC/LOW LKLY FOR THE WKND AS IT DOES LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION. COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM DURING MONDAY...CLEARING
THINGS OUT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT WITH A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SEA FOG/STRATUS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE
CWA IS PREDOMINATELY IFR...HOWEVER POCKETS OF VFR ARE OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COAST. LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...DRAGGING ACROSS A WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...COVERAGE LIMITED. A WEDGE SETS UP TONIGHT WITH
MORE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
WITH THE FROPA...JUST AFTER 00Z. TUESDAY...CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY
IFR WITH A NORTHEAST WIND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT IFR CIGS WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR CWA. VFR THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH REACHING THE CAROLINAS COAST
JUST AROUND SUNSET. TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS UP AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE ANY DENSE SEA FOG AWAY FROM THE
COAST DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGH LATE DAY.
PRECAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS SEAS AWAY FROM SHORE REMAIN UP AROUND 4-5 FEET AND WINDS REMAIN
UP NEAR 20 KTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SHALLOW COOL AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH N WINDS TURNING NE AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME FROM ALL POINTS
OF THE COMPASS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A COMPLEX SERIES OF FRONTS
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. DUE TO THE SPEED AND NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS...IT IS BEST TO CONSULT THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST
UPDATED DETAILS ON WIND SPEED/DIRECTION AND SEA STATE.
HOWEVER...IT DOE LOOK LIKE WE COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BUILD SEAS
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. RAIN...DRIZZLE AND RAINSHOWERS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM MONDAY...DEVELOPING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREATE RATHER UNIFORM NE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST
THURSDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE SETUP BY FRIDAY. THIS DRIVES
STRENGTHENING NE WINDS TO 15-20 KTS MUCH OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COASTAL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT NE WINDS
ONGOING SATURDAY...BUT WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT DRIVING SLIGHTLY
DECREASED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD WITH A NE WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT...BUT MUCH LOWER WAVE
AMPLITUDES ARE LIKELY SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE NE WIND WAVES
ARE SHADOWED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
GULF COAST STORM MAY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER TODAY AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH REACHING THE
CAPE FEAR COAST AROUND SUNSET.
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRODUCING GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP AROUND 70 MOST PLACES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THIS WARMER MOISTURE RICH
AIR MOVING OVER THE COOLER COASTAL WATERS PRODUCED SOME DENSE FOG
OVER THE WATERS AND JUST ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITIES JUST ALONG
THE COAST REMAINED VARIABLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WERE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO A MORE W-SW DIRECTION WHICH WILL HELP TO
PUSH SEA FOG AWAY FROM THE COAST. PLACES FURTHER INLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS LIFTING AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT
WILL ALSO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS A MORE CONVECTIVE
TYPE ATMOSPHERE EXISTS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FAIRLY DECENT
CAP PRESENT UP AROUND 15K FT. HRRR DEPICTING THE EVOLUTION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY QUITE WELL SO FAR AND IT DOES SHOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OUT AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT ALONG
FRONT ITSELF. THIS SHOULD REACH INTO OUR NW PORTIONS OF CWA INTO
ROBESON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES BY 4PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST REACHING THE CAPE FEAR COAST AROUND SUNSET.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT ITSELF AS ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT
BASICALLY LOW TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST IN THE BENNETTSVILLE-LUMBERTON AREA AND LOWEST
ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER.
FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF OUR PATTERN...ANOTHER
LOW QUICKLY FOLLOWS IN ITS PATH. THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN INTO
TEXAS BY EARLY TUES MORNING WILL ACT TO BUILD THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHARPENING THE FLOW ALOFT AND MAINTAINING A
PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT. A VERY STEEP INVERSION WILL SET UP WITH
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING THE WAY TO LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT
POPS AS IS WHICH DEPICT THE PROGRESSION OF THE PCP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT VERY WELL AND THEN ALLOW FOR OVERRUNNING OF WARM HUMID AIR
OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR TO PRODUCE MORE STABLE PCP OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES MORNING.
TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD 20 TO 30 DEGREES IN SHALLOW CAA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH DOWN JUST BELOW 40 OVER MOST
INLAND AND NORTH CAROLINA ZONES BUT WHILE DOWN ALONG THE NORTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM GRAND STRAND SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...TUE WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL IN THE CAROLINAS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
NEAR SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP LIGHT RAIN A POSSIBILITY
TUE. WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE TUE AS SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID LEVEL WAVE HELPS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOP ON A FRONT STALLED ALONG THE TX COAST TUE MORNING. THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY TUE EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST IT DRAGS THE
FRONT/TROUGH STALLED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT. TIMING THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
TEMPERATURES TUE AND TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE HIGH TEMP
ON TUE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE LOW OCCURRING TUE
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
THE SAME. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RISE TUE NIGHT ENDING UP AROUND
60 WED MORNING.
DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WED TEMPS WILL END UP WELL ABOVE CLIMO
WITH MANY AREAS RISING INTO THE 70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTION.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL JET IS RATHER
WEAK...AND GROWING WEAKER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT THIS POINT
STRONG STORMS SEEM LIKE A LONG SHOT LET ALONE ANYTHING SEVERE. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAN TAP INTO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. THINK A BROKEN LINE OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER CONVECTION...CONTAINING A LITTLE MORE
THUNDER...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
STILL DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER
IS CONCERNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE FRONT WED NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. DEEP DRY AIR SPREADS OVER
THE REGION WED NIGHT THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AS WELL AS SOME
MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUE WITH WEDGE SETTING UP FRI AND LASTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THU APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY DAY OF THE PERIOD
WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE PREVALENT...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
END UP BELOW CLIMO. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE WED WILL CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON BUT IN A WEAKENED
STATE. HIGHS THU WILL END UP AROUND 50 IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS THU
NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPS WED NIGHT MAY LEVEL
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
AS MENTIONED WEDGE SETS UP EARLY FRI AND HOLDS STRONG THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 3K FT WILL PUMP PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUN. INCREASING ISENTROPIC AS EARLY
AS MIDDAY FRI TAPS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE...GENERATING LIGHT RAIN IN
THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EMERGE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST LATE SAT AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH SUN. STILL UNCERTAIN IF THE
WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OR IF A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL FORM ALONG OR
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. EITHER SOLUTION WILL KEEP
THE REGION CLOUDY WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH TEMP
DIFFERENCE WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A WET FORECAST WITH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SEA FOG/STRATUS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE
CWA IS PREDOMINATELY IFR...HOWEVER POCKETS OF VFR ARE OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COAST. LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...DRAGGING ACROSS A WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...COVERAGE LIMITED. A WEDGE SETS UP TONIGHT WITH
MORE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
WITH THE FROPA...JUST AFTER 00Z. TUESDAY...CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY
IFR WITH A NORTHEAST WIND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT IFR CIGS WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR CWA. VFR THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH REACHING THE CAROLINAS COAST
JUST AROUND SUNSET. TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS UP AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE ANY DENSE SEA FOG AWAY FROM THE
COAST DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGH LATE DAY.
PRECAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS SEAS AWAY FROM SHORE REMAIN UP AROUND 4-5 FEET AND WINDS REMAIN
UP NEAR 20 KTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SHALLOW COOL AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH N WINDS TURNING NE AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DECREASE FROM 15 TO 20 KT AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD TO 10 TO 15 KT TUE EVENING AS COASTAL TROUGH
MOVES TO THE COAST. ONCE THIS FEATURE MOVES ONSHORE...TUE
NIGHT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. SPEEDS START OUT 10 TO
15 KT BUT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT AND VEER TO SOUTHWEST BY WED
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO A SOLID 20 KT JUST BEFORE THE FRONT
REACHES THE COAST. FRONT IS QUICK TO MOVE OFFSHORE...PUSHING EAST OF
THE WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. PINCHED GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KT AS THEY VEER TO
FIRST WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ON TUE START TO
BUILD TUE NIGHT ONCE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 6 FT DURING THE DAY WED AND IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR A SCA
HEADLINE IS LIKELY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND A FRONT/TROUGH STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A
PINCHED GRADIENT ALONG THE EAST COAST. EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON THU TO 3 TO 5 FT
WITH ISOLATED 6 FT ON FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
309 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A GULF
COAST STORM MAY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH ACROSS ALABAMA WILL SWEEP EAST...
CROSSING THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT IS BEING PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS THAT WILL MOVE INTO WEST VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING. 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
BUT WILL HAVE ONLY LIMITED SUCCESS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT HOLDS THE FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS EXPECTED TODAY DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AND MORNING FOG. FOG MAY EVEN BECOME DENSE ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY
BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE INTO THE
70S AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CLEAR BUT BEFORE A SHOT OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC
LIFT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE CLOUDS SCATTERED SHOWERS. IF
ALL WORKS AS PLANNED...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. 850 MB TEMPS AS HIGH AS +13C THIS MORNING
CERTAINLY LEND SUPPORT TO THESE TEMPERATURES. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE
WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY THE LARGEST
POTENTIAL FOR ERROR IS AGAIN WITH TIMING THE BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A RIBBON OF 300-305K ISENTROPIC
LIFT (AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME MODEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY) WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...
REACHING THE COAST BEFORE SUNSET. SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 700 MB SHOULD
PRODUCE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVECTIVE CAP TO PREVENT SHOWERS FROM
GROWING INTO DEEPER THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
THEN SHOULD STRENGTHEN LATE AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF COAST STRENGTHENS OUR LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND BEGINS
TO LIFT INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...TUE WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL IN THE CAROLINAS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
NEAR SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP LIGHT RAIN A POSSIBILITY
TUE. WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE TUE AS SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID LEVEL WAVE HELPS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOP ON A FRONT STALLED ALONG THE TX COAST TUE MORNING. THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY TUE EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST IT DRAGS THE
FRONT/TROUGH STALLED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT. TIMING THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
TEMPERATURES TUE AND TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE HIGH TEMP
ON TUE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE LOW OCCURRING TUE
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
THE SAME. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RISE TUE NIGHT ENDING UP AROUND
60 WED MORNING.
DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WED TEMPS WILL END UP WELL ABOVE CLIMO
WITH MANY AREAS RISING INTO THE 70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTION.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL JET IS RATHER
WEAK...AND GROWING WEAKER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AT THIS POINT
STRONG STORMS SEEM LIKE A LONG SHOT LET ALONE ANYTHING SEVERE. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAN TAP INTO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. THINK A BROKEN LINE OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER CONVECTION...CONTAINING A LITTLE MORE
THUNDER...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
STILL DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER
IS CONCERNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE FRONT WED NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. DEEP DRY AIR SPREADS OVER
THE REGION WED NIGHT THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AS WELL AS SOME
MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUE WITH WEDGE SETTING UP FRI AND LASTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THU APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY DAY OF THE PERIOD
WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE PREVALENT...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
END UP BELOW CLIMO. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE WED WILL CONTINUE INTO THU AFTERNOON BUT IN A WEAKENED
STATE. HIGHS THU WILL END UP AROUND 50 IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS THU
NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPS WED NIGHT MAY LEVEL
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
AS MENTIONED WEDGE SETS UP EARLY FRI AND HOLDS STRONG THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 3K FT WILL PUMP PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUN. INCREASING ISENTROPIC AS EARLY
AS MIDDAY FRI TAPS INTO DEEPER MOISTURE...GENERATING LIGHT RAIN IN
THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EMERGE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST LATE SAT AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH SUN. STILL UNCERTAIN IF THE
WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OR IF A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL FORM ALONG OR
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. EITHER SOLUTION WILL KEEP
THE REGION CLOUDY WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH TEMP
DIFFERENCE WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A WET FORECAST WITH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PATCHES OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND TONIGHT...
WITH LIFR VSBYS EARLIER REPORTED AT KLBT AND KFLO. MEANWHILE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE KEPT VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW
VFR LEVELS. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE BEFORE DAYBREAK...LIKELY HELPING VSBYS IMPROVE TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AS FOG LIFTS INTO MORE OF A STRATUS LAYER. 11-3.9U SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SEA FOG/STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH THE HRRR DEPICTS
AS SPREADING UP THE COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THEREFORE...WILL STILL INCLUDE IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE COASTAL TERMS
BY 09Z.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE DAY...AND SO WILL KEEP VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS FOLLOWING FROPA...WHICH WILL
OCCUR AFTER 21Z INLAND AND 00Z ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT POST-FRONTAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...LOWEST
AT THE COASTAL TERMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT IFR CIGS WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR CWA. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH ACROSS ALABAMA WILL SWEEP EAST...REACHING THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. AS THIS HUMID AIR CROSSES THE VERY COLD NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. WIND DIRECTIONS TURNING MORE WESTERLY NEAR
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION
OF THE FOG.
AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS MORNING...SEAS AWAY FROM
SHORE SHOULD BUILD TO 4-5 FEET. WITH SHORT WAVE PERIODS AND A LARGE
AREA OF 5 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT BEYOND 5-10 MILES FROM
SHORE...AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE TACKED ONTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BUILDING SOUTHWARD. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD PUSH THE FRONT DOWN INTO GEORGIA OR EVEN FLORIDA BUT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST SHOULD HOLD THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH N WINDS
TURNING NE AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DECREASE FROM 15 TO 20 KT AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD TO 10 TO 15 KT TUE EVENING AS COASTAL TROUGH
MOVES TO THE COAST. ONCE THIS FEATURE MOVES ONSHORE...TUE
NIGHT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. SPEEDS START OUT 10 TO
15 KT BUT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT AND VEER TO SOUTHWEST BY WED
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO A SOLID 20 KT JUST BEFORE THE FRONT
REACHES THE COAST. FRONT IS QUICK TO MOVE OFFSHORE...PUSHING EAST OF
THE WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. PINCHED GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KT AS THEY VEER TO
FIRST WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ON TUE START TO
BUILD TUE NIGHT ONCE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 6 FT DURING THE DAY WED AND IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR A SCA
HEADLINE IS LIKELY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND A FRONT/TROUGH STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A
PINCHED GRADIENT ALONG THE EAST COAST. EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON THU TO 3 TO 5 FT
WITH ISOLATED 6 FT ON FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
237 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SUNDAY...
PRECIP STREAMING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ONCE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOW MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTS TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z. THE 00Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS THAT THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. THE 50KT
PREFRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET ANALYZED UPSTREAM IS ADVECTING BETTER
MOISTURE OUR WAY...BUT ISENTROPIC FIELDS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
PRECIP WILL VERY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT UNTIL
THE FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 15Z. THUS
HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE RAP STILL SHOWS A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKING
NORTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...BUT FORCING OUTSIDE OF THE
LLJ/WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
FRONT...SO ANY THUNDER WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. OVER THER
EAST...LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND AND THINNER HIGH CLOUDS MAY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. LOWS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP AND THICKER CLOUD COVER KICKS IN. WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS BASED ON CURRENT READINGS...WITH MID 50S
WEST AND MID/UPPER 40S EAST.
MONDAY...
PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING MAINLY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
POSSIBLY SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTH TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING.
EXPECT A SHARP DROP OFF IN PRECIP AMOUNTS...AROUND 0.75" NORTH TO
WELL UNDER 0.25" SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
INITIALLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND THEN HOLD NEARLY STEADY INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SE BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL THE FRONT AND PRECIP COOLS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
50S. -SMITH/CBL
MONDAY NIGHT:
A ~1030MB OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
COULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIP MONDAY EVENING BEFORE WE ALREADY TO START
TO HAVE IMPACTS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A RESURGENCE OF SHALLOW
SOUTHERLY 295K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE..BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z...WITH
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT P-TYPE CONCERNS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S
SOUTH. -CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD FOR EARLY TUESDAY HAS BEEN THE VERY LOW
POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE (IN THE FAR NW-N ONLY). AS
IT HAS LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS... THIS RUN OF THE MODELS ESSENTIALLY
DEPICTS THE SAME (NO IMPACTS FROM WINTER WEATHER). HOWEVER... THE
EXPECTED HYBRID CAD WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
KEEPING TEMPS LOW IN THE DAMMING REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
THE MAIN BULK OF THE COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH OF
OUR REGION FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE MAIN SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE TX/LA COAST
AROUND 12Z/TUE THEN TRACK NE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY 00Z/WED...
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS STORM TRACK
WILL AGAIN KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTH... AND
WILL PLACE A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NC INTO THE WARM
SECTOR WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR 70 FROM FAYETTEVILLE
TO GOLDSBORO. BACK OVER THE PIEDMONT... A HYBRID CAD WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW OVERCAST
CEILINGS... OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE... AND POOR VISIBILITIES.
TEMPERATURES BACK ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LINGER CAD BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES IF NOT MORE COOLER THAN IN THE SE. HIGH
IN THE TRIAD MAY STAY AT OR BELOW 50 WEDNESDAY.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 13Z-15Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER... QPF
LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH.
SENSIBLE WEATHER... CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM MID MORNING ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS ONLY UPPER 30S NORTH AND WEST TO AROUND 50 SE. LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE LIKELY MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG.
LOWS HOLDING STEADY. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH A SOME LIGHT RAIN
LIKELY WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SE. HIGHS 50 NW TO 70 SE.
CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 219 AM MONDAY...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION AS WELL. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN STORM TRACK MAY
HOLD TRUE AGAIN (GULF TO APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND) EVEN FOR THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM PROJECTED BY LATE WEEK. IF THIS VERIFIES... THE
THE WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW FOR CENTRAL
NC.
ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND... THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS WITH THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD
AIR DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS VERY WIDE
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WHICH RANGES FROM HARDLY ANY STORM TO A
NOR`EASTER. WITH SUCH SPREAD NOTED... WPC SUGGESTS USING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE TWO ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS AND
THE EC. OF IMPORTANCE FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NC... THE POLAR
JET FLOW ALSO SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD AND THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT
PART IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
FOR NOW... WE WILL RELY ON THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TEH GEFS MEAN
PER WPC. RECENT 90-DAY VERIFICATION SHOWED THE ECENS MEAN AND GEFS
MEAN ARE THE BEST PERFORMING MODELS AT DAY 7 OVER THE CONUS. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD YIELD ANOTHER MILLER TYPE-B STORM TRACKING TOO FAR
INLAND FOR SNOW FOR CENTRAL NC... YET LEAVES OPEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WINTERY MIX IN THE PIEDMONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT (IF A
PARENT COLD HIGH BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES OR NEW
ENGLAND AND EXTENDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FAR ENOUGH). TOO MAY
IF`S TO ADD ANYTHING FROZEN OR FREEZING INTO OUR FORECASTS LATE WEEK
OR FOR THE WEEKEND.
SENSIBLE WEATHER... THE COLD HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THU.
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MAINLY CLEAR AND CHILLY THU
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SE. INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S. A CHANCE
OF RAIN SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S NW/SE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK QUICKLY ENE FROM WESTERN NC TO
OFFSHORE TIDEWATER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE/LIFR-IFR CEILINGS AND MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF
RAIN...MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSING SURFACE LOW. LASTLY...THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE LIGHT SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KTS AT 2000 FT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE
SCATTERING TO VFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP IN DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AS WARM AND MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE RIDES ATOP A POLAR SURFACE HIGH AT THE SURFACE.
OUTLOOK: COLD AIR DAMMING AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
229 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SUNDAY...
PRECIP STREAMING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ONCE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOW MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTS TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z. THE 00Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS THAT THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. THE 50KT
PREFRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET ANALYZED UPSTREAM IS ADVECTING BETTER
MOISTURE OUR WAY...BUT ISENTROPIC FIELDS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
PRECIP WILL VERY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT UNTIL
THE FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 15Z. THUS
HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE RAP STILL SHOWS A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKING
NORTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...BUT FORCING OUTSIDE OF THE
LLJ/WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
FRONT...SO ANY THUNDER WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. OVER THER
EAST...LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND AND THINNER HIGH CLOUDS MAY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. LOWS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP AND THICKER CLOUD COVER KICKS IN. WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS BASED ON CURRENT READINGS...WITH MID 50S
WEST AND MID/UPPER 40S EAST.
MONDAY...
PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING MAINLY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
POSSIBLY SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTH TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING.
EXPECT A SHARP DROP OFF IN PRECIP AMOUNTS...AROUND 0.75" NORTH TO
WELL UNDER 0.25" SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
INITIALLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND THEN HOLD NEARLY STEADY INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SE BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL THE FRONT AND PRECIP COOLS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
50S. -SMITH/CBL
MONDAY NIGHT:
A ~1030MB OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
COULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIP MONDAY EVENING BEFORE WE ALREADY TO START
TO HAVE IMPACTS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A RESURGENCE OF SHALLOW
SOUTHERLY 295K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE..BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z...WITH
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT P-TYPE CONCERNS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S
SOUTH. -CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD.
ON TUESDAY...A PARENT SURFACE HIGH (1030+ MB) WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NEW ENGLAND...NOSING SWD ITO THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE A S/W IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE LIFTING ENE ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW IN THE 925-850MB LAYER
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL
PULL WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE COOL DRY STABLE AIRMASS NEAR THE
SURFACE...ESTABLISHING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AND ASSOCIATED HYBRID
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE. EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF PRECIP WERE TO START PRIOR TO
15Z ACROSS THE TRIAD REGION...COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS PATCHY
FREEZING RAIN (PER PARTIAL THICKNESSES). HOWEVER MODEL TREND HAS
FAVORED A LATER STARTING TIME...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING
THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS THEN LIFTING NWD INTO THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.
DUE TO EXPECTED ONSET OF CAD CONDITIONS...EXPECT TEMPS TO AVERAGE
WELL BELOW NORMAL. WHILE THIS IS REFLECTED IN MOS GUIDANCE...
GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE TOO WARM BY TWO CATEGORIES... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. MAX TEMPS UPPER 30S NW TO MID-UPPER 40S SE.
PRECIP SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AS MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM IS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LITTLE SUPPORT/LIFT FROM JET DYNAMICS.
MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ADVANCE INTO VIRGINIA TUESDAY
EVENING. EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC TO BECOME MORE
PATCHY...AND LIKELY BE MORE DRIZZLE THAN LIGHT RAIN BY LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHILE A WEAKER
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAD BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF OUR
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS LOW LIFTS NEWD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES THE
PRIMARY LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY...EXITING THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT
WET WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...TRANSITIONING TO MORE RAIN
EAST VERSUS WEST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE PIEDMONT. NW
FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL AID TO SCOUR OUT THE RESIDUAL CAD
AIRMASS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS WEDNESDAY VERSUS
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S/60 NW TO UPPER 60S/70
SE.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD CANADIAN
AIR BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE N-NW. MIN TEMPS NEAR 30 NW TO
NEAR 40 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...
ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PERSIST INTO THE LONG TERM WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR TEH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY PERIOD.
COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BUT EXTEND
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THEN SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS PATTERN
USUALLY SIGNALS VERY SHALLOW COLD DRY AIR MOVING INTO AND SETTLING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER THURSDAY THOUGH MUCH
COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPS MID 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN U.S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MINOR AND
WEAKENS AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHILE GFS
KEEPS PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT ANEMIC ON THE ECMWF
SO THINK THAT THE PRECIP IS OVERDONE. WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY
AND HAVE A SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NC FRIDAY. IF
RAIN DOES MATERIALIZE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT...PRECIP MAY START OUT AS WINTRY MIX.
SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM A PARENT HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A
STRONGER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
INDUCE ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT...COMMENCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER A CLASSICAL DAMMING EVENT. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXTENT/DEPTH OF THE SFC BASED COLD DRY AIR.
PARTIAL THICKNESSES OFF THE COLDER GFS WOULD SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX
(SLEET/FREEZING RAIN) WHILE ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD RAIN. THIS FAR
OUT...FAVOR A COLD RAIN AND MAINTAIN A WATCH ON MODEL TRENDS NEXT
DAY OR TWO. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS TEH SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE. SLIGHTLY BETTER
SUPPORT ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGEST HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY UPEPR 30S
NW TO MID 40S BE...AND LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE SAT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK QUICKLY ENE FROM WESTERN NC TO
OFFSHORE TIDEWATER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE/LIFR-IFR CEILINGS AND MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF
RAIN...MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSING SURFACE LOW. LASTLY...THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE LIGHT SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KTS AT 2000 FT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE
SCATTERING TO VFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP IN DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AS WARM AND MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE RIDES ATOP A POLAR SURFACE HIGH AT THE SURFACE.
OUTLOOK: COLD AIR DAMMING AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1235 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A GULF
COAST STORM MAY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MOVING NORTH INTO GEORGETOWN NOW...AND APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH
BETWEEN 2-3 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
FOG WAS PATCHY...BUT AT TIMES DENSE THIS EVE ACROSS SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WAS ADVECTING NORTH AND MAY MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND A FEW HOURS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NEAR ZERO ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TOWARD
MORNING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A TENDENCY FOR FOG TO LIFT INTO A LOW
STRATUS NEARER TO DAYBREAK. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPING SEA
FOG. THIS FOG MAY MOVE ONTO THE COAST AND MAY BE DENSE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS AND ON MONDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK WITH INLAND AREAS PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED AS COMPARED TO MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS. STILL...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE RESIDUAL DRY AIR
ABOVE 1500 FT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL STABILIZE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S THIS EVE AND THEN
BEGIN RISING OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AND HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT REACH THE AREA AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS LATER ON MONDAY AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL
REMAIN IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RISE STEADILY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REACH NEAR 70 FOR TEMPS AND UP
TO MID 50 TO AROUND 60 DEWPOINTS. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD THE WAY TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF AREA...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED. MAY BE
TRICKIER IF FOG LIFTS AND SUNSHINE INCREASES BUT IT LOOKS LIKE FOG
AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LLJ UP TO
35 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE W-SW BY
EARLY AFTN AS FRONT NEARS THE AREA. EXPECT SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE LUMBERTON AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST MOVING OFF THE
GRAND STRAND BY LATE AFTN.
SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRONT WITH A 20 DEGREE DROP
IN TEMPS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT IN CAA. THE COOL N-NE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVERRUN BY W-SW WINDS ALOFT AS
RIDGE HOLDS ON OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD THE WAY TO
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASING INTO TUES.
A MORE TYPICAL WEDGE TYPE SCENARIO WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS
WHILE LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT TO BE
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES INTO TUES
NIGHT WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S
MOST PLACES.
BY LATE TUES ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUE EVENING.
AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IT WILL LIFT THE LINGERING
FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO INCREASING TEMPS
TOWARD WED MORNING IN INCREASED WAA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO DOMINATE THE EXTENDED
WITH A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA. FIRST OF
THESE OCCURS WEDNESDAY...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC DRIVES A POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WHILE
THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL COME CRASHING DOWN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
THIS FROPA. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN WINTER...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING...AND EVEN SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL WEDNESDAY...SO STRONG
CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR TSTMS WED AFTN/EVE...AND CURRENT LIKELY POP WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE RENEWED
WEDGE SETUP DEVELOPS FRIDAY. THIS CREATES AT LEAST ONE MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMO THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER FRIDAY THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AS
THIS TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MUCH OF THE
WINTER CONTINUES.
NEXT WKND LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE
TRIES TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND CREATE AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST. WHILE INITIALLY SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE WKND. WITH SUCH A COMPLICATED PRESSURE
PATTERN...AND IT BEING D6/D7...WILL NOT FOCUS ON DETAILS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE INHERITED TREND OF RAMPING POP UPWARDS
FOR NEXT WKND WITH TEMPS AROUND CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PATCHES OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND TONIGHT...
WITH LIFR VSBYS EARLIER REPORTED AT KLBT AND KFLO. MEANWHILE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE KEPT VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW
VFR LEVELS. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE BEFORE DAYBREAK...LIKELY HELPING VSBYS IMPROVE TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AS FOG LIFTS INTO MORE OF A STRATUS LAYER. 11-3.9U SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SEA FOG/STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH THE HRRR DEPICTS
AS SPREADING UP THE COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THEREFORE...WILL STILL INCLUDE IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE COASTAL TERMS
BY 09Z.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE DAY...AND SO WILL KEEP VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS FOLLOWING FROPA...WHICH WILL
OCCUR AFTER 21Z INLAND AND 00Z ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT POST-FRONTAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...LOWEST
AT THE COASTAL TERMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT IFR CIGS WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR CWA. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
STRATUS AND DENSE FOG JUST GETTING INTO GEORGETOWN...AND SPREADING
NORTH ALONG THE COAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MARINERS IN THE MYRTLE
BEACH VICINITY CAN EXPECT A REDUCTION VISIBILITY BETWEEN 2-3
AM...WITH SEA FOG SPREADING NORTH TOWARD CAPE FEAR BY 4 AM. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
SPECIAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG SPREADING NORTH FROM AREAS TO
OUR SOUTH THIS EVE. AS DEWPOINTS CREEP THROUGH THE 50S IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT THIS FOG TO ADVECT OR DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
WATERS. THUS HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS AND
EXPECT THIS FOG TO RESTRICT THE VISIBILITIES TO 1 NM OR LESS LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO MON. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM
THE SSW AND SW AT 10 KT OR LESS...BUT INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
WILL ALSO REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT...INCREASING
ON MON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW UP AROUND 15 KTS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE N BEHIND COLD
FRONT BY MON EVE. THE SW PUSH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH SEAS UP
TO 3 TO 5 FT REACHING INTO PRECAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FROM MID
MORNING MONDAY UP LATE AFTN. MAY SEE SOME 6 FTERS PRODUCING
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS BUT THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE A DECENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT KEEPING GREATEST SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF LOCAL
WATERS...BEYOND 20 NM. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO TO THE N-NE THROUGH TUES 10 TO 15 KTS IN CAA. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP THROUGH TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE RUNS DOWN THROUGH INLAND
CAROLINAS AND LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH BECOMES MORE WELL
DEFINED...SHIFTING CLOSER TO COAST BY TUES NIGHT. EXPECT NORTHEAST
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY VERY END OF PERIOD INTO WED MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE RIDES UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DRAGGING THIS
LINGERING FRONT BACK NORTH. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH RISE TOWARD THE END UP CLOSE TO 6 FT BY
WED MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...PRE-FRONTAL REGIME TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LEAVES GUSTY S/SW
WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY...AT SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS...DRIVING SEAS TO 4-6
FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. SUDDEN WIND SHIFT OCCURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW AND THEN NORTH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SPEEDS CONTINUING 15-20 KTS. WINDS BECOME NE THURSDAY
AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...AND THESE
PERSIST ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER SPEEDS. ANY HEADLINES SHOULD
EXPIRE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FETCH CAUSES DECREASING
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH SEAS BECOMING 2-4 FT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE AREA...AND TEMPS WILL
BECOME STEADY ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE. IT IS STILL CLEAR IN THE FAR
EAST AND SOUTHEAST...SO LOWS HERE WILL FALL BELOW ZERO.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO DEPENDING
ON IF ANY CLEAR SPOTS DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
21 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM DEVILS
LAKE TO BISMARCK WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WILLISTON TO
DICKINSON. OVERCAST SKIES UPSTREAM FROM THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST
MT INTO SASKATCHEWAN NOT WELL RESOLVED IN GLOBAL MODELS...BOTH
SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THEY MOVE EAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FEW BREAKS AND WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...SEE NO REASON CLOUDS WILL
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. WILL FOLLOW RAP 925 HPA RH OUTPUT WHICH
MOVES LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS A RESULT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DESPITE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXACT TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...
BUT STILL THINK MOST AREAS SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO. NO NEED FOR
WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
MONDAY WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS 1040 HPA PLUS SURFACE HIGH TAKES UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014
STORM TRACK TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY NORMALS UNDER PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES PLUS OR MINUS THE ZERO MARK WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS DIPPING
WELL INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS WIND CHILL THREAT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP REGION DRY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WELL BLO AVERAGE.
MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEKEND ON SOLUTIONS BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE
STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH FA REMAINING DRY BUT BLO
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014
CIGS BETWEEN 3 AND 4KFT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE
DOING A POOR JOB WITH THESE CLOUDS...BUT HAVE KEPT IT CLOUDY IN
ALL AREAS ONCE THEY OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
650 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. THEY HEAVIEST SNOWS
WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THOSE DRIVING IN THE CAPITOL DISTRICT...YORK AND LANCASTER
WILL NEED TO PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER DRIVING
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONGER AND MORE DYNAMIC WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE. DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINISH OUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS WINTER. MAIN IMPACT FROM
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY
RAIN WILL QUICKLY TURN OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING LAST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW A SHORT PERIOD OF
VERY HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS SE QUARTER OF CWA AND EXPANDED THE WSW
INTO THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE QUITE
TREACHEROUS ACROSS THIS AREA AS HEAVIEST SNOWS LOOK TO FALL DURING
THIS PERIOD. TOUGHEST PART OF FORECAST WILL BE FORECASTING SNOW
FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWN A
SHARP CUTOFF IN INTENSITIES NORTH OF A CAMBRIA THROUGH CENTRE
COUNTY LINE. SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTH OF THIS LINE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
THIS LINE SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SO FAR IT HAS NOT. WAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST OF CWA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET NIGHT TO THE AREA WITH COLDER
LOWS GIVEN THE COLDER AIR MASS AND DECENT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AFTER A QUIET WEATHER DAY ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
RETREATS NE AND THE NEXT WINTER STORM APPROACHES THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
COLD STORM WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS
POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. WIDE RANGE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. GEFS GUIDANCE
HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN OR PLAIN RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IN THE CENTRAL ZONES
INCLUDING THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...PRECIP TYPES VERY CHALLENGING
WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN TO ADD TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST.
AS YOU HEAD TO THE NORTHERN ZONES THE CHANCES OF THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINING ENTIRELY AS SNOW INCREASE. FOR NOW HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS STORM GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
THAT SILL EXISTS. AFTER THE STORM EXITS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE DAY BREAK...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE COLD TO END THE WORK WEEK...LIKELY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SOMETIME
NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. LATEST GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO PUSH IT BACK INTO THE SUNDAY OR MONDAY TIME FRAME.
THERMAL PROFILES AGAIN COLD WITH THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT ANOTHER
CHALLENGING FORECAST NARROWING DOWN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THAT EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNITL LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND EARLY AFT
ACROSS THE EAST. LIFR.
SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS EASTWARD. SOME HINTS OF SOME LOWER CLDS AND FOG
COULD LINGER AT JST INTO TONIGHT.
TUESDAY STARTS OFF WITH LOTS OF SUN...BUT CLDS COME IN
FAST...AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NE TOWARD THE
OH VLY.
A FAST MOVING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME VARIATION IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FAST AND
A LOT OF WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING IN AT MID LVLS...THUS
SLEET COULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.
HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SOME SNOW...RAIN...
AND FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER WED...AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...WIDESPREAD IFR LIKELY IN MIXED PCPN.
THU-FRI...MVFR W AND N WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024>028-050-052-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. THEY HEAVIEST SNOWS
WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THOSE DRIVING IN THE CAPITOL DISTRICT...YORK AND LANCASTER
WILL NEED TO PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER DRIVING
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONGER AND MORE DYNAMIC WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE. DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINISH OUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630AM UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGES TO FORECAST AS SNOW QUICKLY BECOMING
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT MOD-HVY SNOW FOR THE
CAP CITY REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NORTHERN EDGE OF SNOW
INTO CENTRE COUNTY.
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS WINTER. MAIN IMPACT FROM
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY
RAIN WILL QUICKLY TURN OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING LAST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW A SHORT PERIOD OF
VERY HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS SE QUARTER OF CWA AND EXPANDED THE WSW
INTO THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE QUITE
TREACHEROUS ACROSS THIS AREA AS HEAVIEST SNOWS LOOK TO FALL DURING
THIS PERIOD. TOUGHEST PART OF FORECAST WILL BE FORECASTING SNOW
FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWN A
SHARP CUTOFF IN INTENSITIES NORTH OF A CAMBRIA THROUGH CENTRE
COUNTY LINE. SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTH OF THIS LINE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
THIS LINE SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SO FAR IT HAS NOT. WAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST OF CWA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET NIGHT TO THE AREA WITH COLDER
LOWS GIVEN THE COLDER AIR MASS AND DECENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AFTER A QUIET WEATHER DAY ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
RETREATS NE AND THE NEXT WINTER STORM APPROACHES THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
COLD STORM WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS
POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. WIDE RANGE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. GEFS GUIDANCE
HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN OR PLAIN RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IN THE CENTRAL ZONES INCLUDING
THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...PRECIP TYPES VERY CHALLENGING WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN MIXED IN TO ADD TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST. AS YOU
HEAD TO THE NORTHERN ZONES THE CHANCES OF THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINING ENTIRELY AS SNOW INCREASE. FOR NOW HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS STORM GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
THAT SILL EXISTS. AFTER THE STORM EXITS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THERE WILL BE A COUPLE DAY BREAK...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE COLD TO END THE WORK WEEK...LIKELY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. LATEST
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO PUSH IT BACK INTO THE SUNDAY OR MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THERMAL PROFILES AGAIN COLD WITH THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST NARROWING DOWN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THAT EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AS OF 09Z.
EXPECT POOR CONDITIONS TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS AFT...AS STORM TRACKING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF PA MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.
09Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
FIRST OF THE SNOW WITH THE APPROACHING STORM NOW INVADING
SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW TO INCREASE RAPIDLY...AND BECOME
HEAVY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AIRFIELDS.
LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE QPF AND RESULTANT SNOW.
EXPECTING A WINDOW OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW IN SOUTHERN
AIRFIELDS TOMORROW FROM ABOUT 12Z TO 16Z. HAVE ADJUSTED TAFS TO
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS.
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE 00Z
TUESDAY.
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...WIDESPREAD IFR LIKELY IN MIXED PCPN.
THU...MVFR W AND N WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024>028-050-052-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
458 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. THEY HEAVIEST SNOWS
WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THOSE DRIVING IN THE CAPITOL DISTRICT...YORK AND LANCASTER
WILL NEED TO PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER DRIVING
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONGER AND MORE DYNAMIC WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE. DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINISH OUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS WINTER. MAIN IMPACT FROM
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY
RAIN WILL QUICKLY TURN OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING LAST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW A SHORT PERIOD OF
VERY HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS SE QUARTER OF CWA AND EXPANDED THE WSW
INTO THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE QUITE
TREACHEROUS ACROSS THIS AREA AS HEAVIEST SNOWS LOOK TO FALL DURING
THIS PERIOD. TOUGHEST PART OF FORECAST WILL BE FORECASTING SNOW
FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWN A
SHARP CUTOFF IN INTENSITIES NORTH OF A CAMBRIA THROUGH CENTRE
COUNTY LINE. SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTH OF THIS LINE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
THIS LINE SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SO FAR IT HAS NOT. WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF CWA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET NIGHT TO THE AREA WITH COLDER
LOWS GIVEN THE COLDER AIR MASS AND DECENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AFTER A QUIET WEATHER DAY ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
RETREATS NE AND THE NEXT WINTER STORM APPROACHES THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
COLD STORM WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS
POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. WIDE RANGE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. GEFS GUIDANCE
HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN OR PLAIN RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IN THE CENTRAL ZONES INCLUDING
THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...PRECIP TYPES VERY CHALLENGING WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN MIXED IN TO ADD TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST. AS YOU
HEAD TO THE NORTHERN ZONES THE CHANCES OF THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINING ENTIRELY AS SNOW INCREASE. FOR NOW HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS STORM GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
THAT SILL EXISTS. AFTER THE STORM EXITS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THERE WILL BE A COUPLE DAY BREAK...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE COLD TO END THE WORK WEEK...LIKELY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. LATEST
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO PUSH IT BACK INTO THE SUNDAY OR MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THERMAL PROFILES AGAIN COLD WITH THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST NARROWING DOWN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THAT EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AS OF 09Z.
EXPECT POOR CONDITIONS TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS AFT...AS STORM TRACKING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF PA MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA.
09Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
FIRST OF THE SNOW WITH THE APPROACHING STORM NOW INVADING
SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW TO INCREASE RAPIDLY...AND BECOME
HEAVY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AIRFIELDS.
LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE QPF AND RESULTANT SNOW.
EXPECTING A WINDOW OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW IN SOUTHERN
AIRFIELDS TOMORROW FROM ABOUT 12Z TO 16Z. HAVE ADJUSTED TAFS TO
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS.
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE 00Z
TUESDAY.
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...WIDESPREAD IFR LIKELY IN MIXED PCPN.
THU...MVFR W AND N WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024>028-050-052-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
431 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. THEY HEAVIEST SNOWS
WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THOSE DRIVING IN THE CAPITOL DISTRICT...YORK AND LANCASTER
WILL NEED TO PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER DRIVING
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONGER AND MORE DYNAMIC WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE. DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINISH OUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS WINTER. MAIN IMPACT FROM
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY
RAIN WILL QUICKLY TURN OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING LAST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW A SHORT PERIOD OF
VERY HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS SE QUARTER OF CWA AND EXPANDED THE WSW
INTO THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE QUITE
TREACHEROUS ACROSS THIS AREA AS HEAVIEST SNOWS LOOK TO FALL DURING
THIS PERIOD. TOUGHEST PART OF FORECAST WILL BE FORECASTING SNOW
FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWN A
SHARP CUTOFF IN INTENSITIES NORTH OF A CAMBRIA THROUGH CENTRE
COUNTY LINE. SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTH OF THIS LINE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
THIS LINE SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SO FAR IT HAS NOT. WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF CWA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET NIGHT TO THE AREA WITH COLDER
LOWS GIVEN THE COLDER AIR MASS AND DECENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AFTER A QUIET WEATHER DAY ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
RETREATS NE AND THE NEXT WINTER STORM APPROACHES THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
COLD STORM WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS
POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. WIDE RANGE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. GEFS GUIDANCE
HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN OR PLAIN RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. IN THE CENTRAL ZONES INCLUDING
THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...PRECIP TYPES VERY CHALLENGING WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN MIXED IN TO ADD TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST. AS YOU
HEAD TO THE NORTHERN ZONES THE CHANCES OF THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINING ENTIRELY AS SNOW INCREASE. FOR NOW HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS STORM GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
THAT SILL EXISTS. AFTER THE STORM EXITS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THERE WILL BE A COUPLE DAY BREAK...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE COLD TO END THE WORK WEEK...LIKELY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. LATEST
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO PUSH IT BACK INTO THE SUNDAY OR MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THERMAL PROFILES AGAIN COLD WITH THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST NARROWING DOWN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THAT EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION NOW ALMOST TO INTERSTATE 80.
STILL ON THE MILD SIDE ACROSS THE SE...WILL TAKE SEVERAL
MORE HOURS FOR RAIN TO GO OVER TO SNOW.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH LATE.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID
AFT...IF NOT SOONER.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
FIRST OF THE SNOW WITH THE APPROACHING STORM NOW INVADING
SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW TO INCREASE RAPIDLY...AND BECOME
HEAVY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AIRFIELDS.
LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE QPF AND RESULTANT SNOW.
EXPECTING A WINDOW OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW IN SOUTHERN
AIRFIELDS TOMORROW FROM ABOUT 12Z TO 16Z. HAVE ADJUSTED TAFS TO
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS.
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE 00Z
TUESDAY.
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...WIDESPREAD IFR LIKELY IN MIXED PCPN.
THU...MVFR W AND N WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024>028-050-052-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
716 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...VERY SUBTLE MESOSCALE FEATURES AFFECTING
WEATHER ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS
TONIGHT. SFC OBS SHOW SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO AT LEAST
PARTS OF NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN, WITH 33 DEGS AND 33.5 DEGS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT CLARKSVILLE AND DOVER, RESPECTIVELY. THUS, EXPECT THE
FREEZING RAIN TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT,
WHEN COLD FRONT SHOULD START TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND SWEEP
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND HEAVIEST RAIN EAST OF NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN.
HOWEVER, LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
(AS INDICATED BY CURRENT GRIDS).
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO MORE CLOSELY REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS,
INCLUDING PUTTING IN A MIX OF ZR AND R IN OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
WILL RE-RUN OUR SUITE OF TEXT PRODUCTS (INCLUDING ZFP) TO REFLECT
THESE UPDATES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ006-022-
023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ005.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE LATE WINTER WINTER PATTERN THIS WEEK. MIDAFTERNOON GOES
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING TO A NEUTRAL ORIENTATION...BEHIND A 100KT 250MB
SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX ENTERING WEST TX FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS...ABUNDANT MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT SUBFREEZING TEMPS OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WINTRY
WEATHER APPEARS A GOOD BET. 12Z NAM SOUNDING SHOWED A REASONABLY
STRONG SIGNATURE FOR FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF JONESBORO MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN DEPICTED A SOUNDING MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SLEET. IN ANY CASE...WITH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS BOTH DEVELOP
0.4 TO 0.6 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
WESTERN BOOTHEEL...WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH PREVIOUS ADVISORY LEVEL FORECASTED ICE AMOUNTS ALREADY
BUMPING UP TO WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA...HAVE UPGRADED
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND INCREASED
FORECAST ICE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY... NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP CONVECTION MAY ROOT NEAR 750MB...RESULTING IN POCKETS OF
SMALL HAIL OVER THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA. GIVEN THE
HAIL/SLEET POTENTIAL...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE PROGGED 0.6
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL NOT BE ENTIRELY CONVERTED INTO
FREEZING RAIN...BUT THERE ARE BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCES OF
EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF ICE.
FOR THE ADVISORY AREAS... TEMPS MAY REACH OR JUST EXCEED FREEZING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LIMITING ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS. GIVEN
HOW CLOSE THE THRESHOLDS WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM... THE ADVISORY
MAY BE ABLE TO BE PULLED EARLY...OR NEED TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN WEST TN OF EXPECTED WARMING DOES NOT OCCUR. THE
EVENT SHOULD END WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
MIDWEEK PERIODS MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
OTHERWISE QUIET AND COLD.
NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND. ECMWF MODEL
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS AND WAS PREFERRED
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH MIXED MODE WINTRY PRECIP WE/VE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT... THE UPPER LOW AND DEFORMATION ZONE PASS OVER THE
MIDSOUTH... PERHAPS OFFERING MIDSOUTHERNERS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SNOW THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
LATEST RAP SHOWING IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KMEM...KMKL...AND
KTUP THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ACTUALLY BEGINNING TO REBUILD TO THE WEST
INSTEAD OF PUSHING EAST. EXPECT KJBR TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL 3-4Z
TONIGHT WHEN CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO IFR. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO KJBR...KMEM...AND KTUP AROUND
16Z. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS FZRA OR PL AT KJBR BUT SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO RA AROUND 18Z. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FZRAPL MENTION THROUGH
END OF THIS TAF SET. KMEM SHOULD STAY ALL RA WHILE SOME TSRA COULD
OCCUR AT KTUP. NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DIRECTION MAY CHANGE TO THE SE AFTER
12Z AT KTUP.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR DUNKLIN.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR DYER-
LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1109 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS UPDATE...JUST AS ONE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS EXPIRING ANOTHER ONE IS NEEDED.
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS TO THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR TUPELO. NORTH WIND CONTINUES TO
USHER COLDER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY
NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER...FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN
ABRUPT CLEARING LINE FROM NEAR BLYTHEVILLE TO NEAR FORREST CITY
SHIFTING TO THE EAST. MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE SUNSHINE
TODAY...SOAK IT IN...BECAUSE IT MAY NOT MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE
THE REST OF THE WEEK...OR LONGER. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
NEAR FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE.
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
TONIGHT...A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST
TEXAS RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A BROAD
130-140KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ENHANCING LIFT AND RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS EAST TEXAS SHIFTING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AS LOW AS THE MID 20S IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ALOFT...WITH THE NAM INDICATING A WARM LAYER
MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM WOULD DEFINITELY
INDICATE A FREEZING RAIN EVENT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS WHAT COULD
BE A RAIN SLEET/SNOW MIX. DURING THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM...BUT MAY NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS
ONLY 32 DEGREES IN RANDOLPH COUNTY. HPC WWD GRAPHICS INDICATE 1
TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS
JONESBORO ARKANSAS WITH UP TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
FARTHER NORTH. AS A STARTING POINT FOR THIS NEXT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE COUNTY
TN...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THIS AREA
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AND OR EXTENDED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
AGAIN AS A STARTING POINT...EXPECTING UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF ICE OVERSPREAD BY 1-2 INCHES OF A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET. THESE
TOTALS MAY NEED ADJUSTING AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK COLD AND DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CREEP INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WITH THURSDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM 13 TO 23 DEGREES.
HIGHS THURSDAY MIGHT NOT RISE ABOVE 25 DEGREES IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...WHILE NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE LOW
40S.
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...FOCUS YOUR ATTENTION ON THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE
LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF AND TRACKING IT NORTHEAST SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THEN INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA OR GEORGIA BY
SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...IT COULD BE A WINTRY MESS FOR
THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF LAGS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FARTHER
WEST...THUS THE LOW DOESN`T DEEPEN NEARLY AS FAST NOR DEEP...AND
IT ALSO TAKES THE LOW FARTHER EAST RESULTING IN LESS IMPACT ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH SNOW ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
MIDSOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
LATEST RAP SHOWING IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KMEM...KMKL...AND
KTUP THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ACTUALLY BEGINNING TO REBUILD TO THE WEST
INSTEAD OF PUSHING EAST. EXPECT KJBR TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL 3-4Z
TONIGHT WHEN CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO IFR. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO KJBR...KMEM...AND KTUP AROUND
16Z. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS FZRA OR PL AT KJBR BUT SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO RA AROUND 18Z. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FZRAPL MENTION THROUGH
END OF THIS TAF SET. KMEM SHOULD STAY ALL RA WHILE SOME TSRA COULD
OCCUR AT KTUP. NE WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DIRECTION MAY CHANGE TO THE SE AFTER
12Z AT KTUP.
KRM
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 35 30 41 30 / 0 10 100 70
MKL 32 29 41 31 / 0 10 100 80
JBR 28 25 33 27 / 0 10 100 40
TUP 39 36 52 37 / 0 10 100 90
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LAKE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
850 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OVER EASTERN LAND AREAS OF CWA. FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT...MAINLY DEALING WITH DEWPOINTS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
THE SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS FORECAST TO ADVECT THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY HAVE GENERALLY STAYED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP DEWPOINTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BY ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HRRR AND RUC BOTH SUGGEST THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD SOMEWHAT STEADY IN THIS REGION BEFORE THE
FRONT. DUE TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOR
CLEAR SKIES...HAVE EXPANDED THE FORECAST EXTENT OF FOG AND DENSE
FOG A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS LAGGING BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT BY A FEW HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 43 60 38 42 39 / 0 0 20 30 30
VICTORIA 39 56 33 41 35 / 0 0 10 30 20
LAREDO 44 66 38 43 36 / 0 0 20 20 10
ALICE 42 62 36 41 37 / 0 0 20 30 30
ROCKPORT 45 57 40 43 39 / 0 0 20 30 30
COTULLA 39 59 35 42 33 / 0 0 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 42 62 38 42 38 / 0 0 20 30 30
NAVY CORPUS 47 58 42 44 41 / 0 0 20 30 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
IB/90...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
623 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT...MAINLY DEALING WITH DEWPOINTS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
THE SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS FORECAST TO ADVECT THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY HAVE GENERALLY STAYED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP DEWPOINTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BY ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HRRR AND RUC BOTH SUGGEST THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD SOMEWHAT STEADY IN THIS REGION BEFORE THE
FRONT. DUE TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOR
CLEAR SKIES...HAVE EXPANDED THE FORECAST EXTENT OF FOG AND DENSE
FOG A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS LAGGING BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT BY A FEW HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED FROM W TO E ACROSS MUCH
OF S TX WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CIRRUS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE
SFC COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS STILL LOOK LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A HEBBRONVILLE TO
TILDEN LINE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH S TX
WED MORNING LEADING TO IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS THE VCT AREA AROUND 12Z
THEN FARTHER S BY AROUND 13Z OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MOD GUSTY
N TO NE WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS ALL MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL MARINE ZONES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CLEARING IS TAKING
PLACE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MODELS ANTICIPATED...BUT THE CLEARING
LINE HAS REACHED THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND WILL SEE CLEARING
OCCURRING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SLOWER CLEARING/DRYING TEMPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ARE LOWER AND DEW POINTS HIGHER THAN MODELS
INDICATED. COMBINED WITH THE CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...THIS
SHOULD SET UP A FOG SCENARIO ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY...COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER PRE-FRONTAL WINDS TURNING NORTH
MAY HELP IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES IN FOG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA MID MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS INLAND AND WINDY
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.
CLOUDS RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
UPGLIDE DEVELOPS. A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
COULD DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COLD FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY HAVE MAX TEMPS RUN 25 TO NEARLY 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THICK LLVL CLOUD COVER KEEPS MODIFIED CANADIAN
AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THURS
MAY ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS NE ZONES BRIEFLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR PRIMARILY SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT FOR DAYTIME HRS.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO DEEPEN COASTAL TROUGHING DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY /ECMWF MORESO THAN GFS/ AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WEAK S/W
TROUGH SKIRTING NORTH OF THE REGION THERE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS FOR FRI. S/W TROUGH
KICKS EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH MODIFICATION OF TEMPS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH CAA OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE WEAKER WITH STRENGTH OF WEEKEND FROPA...BUT SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS 1040MB HIGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. LLVL WAA REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 43 60 38 42 39 / 0 0 20 30 30
VICTORIA 39 56 33 41 35 / 0 0 10 30 20
LAREDO 44 66 38 43 36 / 0 0 20 20 10
ALICE 42 62 36 41 37 / 0 0 20 30 30
ROCKPORT 45 57 40 43 39 / 0 0 20 30 30
COTULLA 39 59 35 42 33 / 0 0 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 42 62 38 42 38 / 0 0 20 30 30
NAVY CORPUS 47 58 42 44 41 / 0 0 20 30 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
IB/90...SHORT TERM
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1254 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST BY LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EST SUNDAY...
THE AFTERNOON MODELS...INCLUDING MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...AND
THE TRENDS IN THE BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM TO THE
SOUTHWEST...ARE ALL SHOWING INDICATIONS THAT PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER...WITH
MANY LOCATIONS WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...WITH OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OR EVEN
CLOSE TO TWO INCHES LOCALLY. ALL OF THIS WILL FALL MAINLY IN A 6-8
HOUR PERIOD FROM ABOUT 2 AM TO THE MID MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THIS
IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE 6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND WITH THE
GROUND FROZEN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND EVEN A LITTLE SNOW PACK
LEFT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...THE RUNOFF WIL OCCUR QUICKLY.
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE ESPECIALLY HIGH...SO THINK
FLASH FLOODING IS A RELATIVELY LOW THREAT...BUT AM CONCERNED ABOUT
MINOR FLOODING OF STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME
LARGER RIVERS SUCH AS THE GREENBRIER AND BLUESTONE. ICE BREAKING
UP ON THESE RIVERS AND STREAMS IS ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND NOW RAINFALL ON TOP. THEREFORE..DECIDED TO GO
WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN COUNTIES FROM TAZEWELL UP THROUGH
GREENBRIER AND BATH...WITH GREENBRIER REALLY BEING THE HIGHEST
THREAT AREA AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN BULLSEYE COMBINING WITH THE
LOCATION WHERE THE MOST SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND. RAN THIS
THROUGH 6PM MONDAY WELL AFTER THE RAIN WILL HAVE TAPERING
OFF...BUT IF ANY FLOODING DOES OCCUR IT MAY LINGER BEYOND THIS.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN RUNNING MILDER THAN EXPECTED
ANAD GUIDANCE...AND WITH TRENDS IN MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR...BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEG OVERNIGHT AND RESULTING IN A LITTLE LESS AREA WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
HOWEVER...THOSE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THAT DO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MAY
AHVE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES...ALBEIT A FAIRLY WET HEAVY SNOW...SO
ENDED UP INCREASING THE AMOUNTS BUT OVER SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA.
MAY SEE A QUICK BURST OF 2-3 INCHES IN WRN GREENBRIER OR THE
HIGHEST RIDGES OF BATH EARLY IN THE MORNING...LINGERING THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING. BUT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THIS LOOK TO SEE ONLY
COLD RAIN...BUT PERHAPS MORE OF THAT.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 505 PM EST SUNDAY...
MINOR UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING IN WEST AS PRECIP TAKING
ITS TIME TO ADVANCE INTO RELATIVDELY DRY AIRMASS. RADAR MOSAIC AND
LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIP MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING. TWEAKED SKY COVER AS WELL TO ADJUST
FOR PARTIAL CLEARING IN EAST WHICH MAY NOT THICKEN BACK UP UNTIL
LATE EVENING AS WELL. VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS PER LATEST
CONDITIONS...SLOWING DOWN EVENING COOLING A BIT. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 235 PM EST SUNDAY...
MODELS SHOWING A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND LACK OF KICKER UPSTREAM. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER TX/OK
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PUSHING THE FRONT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHERE IT STALLS FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE VA
PIEDMONT. STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A 6-8 HOUR
WINDOW OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE WV MTNS AND SPREADING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT BY DAWN. GOING
TO BE A TRICKY SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NRN/NWRN FRINGE OF THE CWA FROM
GREENBRIER TO AMHERST AS MODEL FLIRTING WITH THE 8H ZERO ISOTHERM
SHIFTING SE ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES EAST AFTER 12Z. QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH QPF IS LEFT. AT THIS TIME WPC FAVORS LOW SNOW AMOUNTS. NOT
SEEING ANY ICE ISSUES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT COULD SEE SLEET INTO
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF TAZEWELL. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER AND
BATH INTO THE BLUE RIDGE COULD PICK UP A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS NOT OF THE QUESTION...BUT SWEET SPOT
FOR SNOW LOVERS WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OF US. JUST A COLD RAIN FOR 95
PERCENT OF OUR AREA.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AS CLOUDS
START TO ENVELOP THE REGION THIS EVENING...HOLDING TEMPS UP. WE WILL
SEE DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS WELL WITH THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOISTENING THE LOW LVLS...AND SCOURING OUT ANY RESIDUAL DRY AIR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE HIGHER RIDGES
OF AMHERST TO GREENBRIER WITH MID TO UPPER 30S I-81 CORRIDOR AND
EAST TO LYH WHILE SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NC COUNTIES DROP TO LOWER
40S.
CLOUDS/PRECIP TOMORROW LIMIT HEATING. SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE TOO LATE
IN HELPING IN THE WEST BUT GIVEN A LACK OF DECENT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...WILL SEE TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
SEASONAL NORMS BUT NOT ARCTIC COLD....RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO THE ALLEGHANYS...TO LOWER TO MID 40S
FROM LYNCHBURG TO ROANOKE...ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WHILE SOUTHSIDE VA AND NW NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 257 PM EST SUNDAY...
WEDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE NAM/MET...WHICH USUALLY DOES BEST WITH THERMAL
STRUCTURE IN WEDGES...COOLED OFF A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. JUDGING
BY THE STRENGTH AND THE DIRECTION OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT...AND
THE SURFACE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WINDS...THERE`S A FAIR CHANCE
THAT SUBFREEZING AIR TEMPS ARE IN PLACE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM SW VA INTO NW NC LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY FROM EASTERN
ASHE/WATAUGA CREEPING UP TO FLOYD COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING
THESE EVENTS...THE WEDGE IS TYPICALLY STRONGEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT TEMPS RIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TYPICALLY
FALL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A WET AND WARM
GROUND WOULD PROBABLY PRECLUDE ANY LIGHT ICING ON THE ROADS...MAINLY
IN THE TREES AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ONLY HAVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...NOTHING TO BE TOO CONCERNED ABOUT AS OF
YET...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY IF THE 2M NAM TEMPS
CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER AND STAY BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY AND INTO A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY EVENING...TEMPS MAY
FALL TO FREEZING IN EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...AND
PERHAPS ALSO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...IN AND OUT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FROM
SW TO NE BY LATE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN BODY OF
PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD TURN
RAIN TO SNOW WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -9C LATE DAY IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER. MUCH OF THE RAIN MAY BE OVER WITH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ELSEWHERE. AS THE WEDGE BREAKS WEDNESDAY MORNING...CUSTOMARY GUSTS
FROM THE SSE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE OBSERVED IN THE
BLF/JFX/MKJ CORRIDOR. MORE WINTERLIKE AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SUNDAY...
WILL START THURSDAY MORNING OFF WITH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND THEN
PUSHES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE WIND
FLOW WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHSIDE TO WARM INTO THE MID 40S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...HOWEVER INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR BUILDING IN
WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS STUCK IN THE
30S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE EVENING WILL HELP LIMIT
COOLING OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOOKING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS TO
HOLD IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN A COOL EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ALL THAT MUCH
WARMING. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS AS TO HOW STRONG
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH WILL BE...AND HOW MUCH RESULTING PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA. THE ECMWF FORECAST MODEL APPEARS VERY BULLISH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION...AND OVERDONE CONSIDERING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR VERY STRONG. THEREFORE...STICKING A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS MODEL AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BELIEVE WE WILL START THE DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
THAT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES AS BOTH TIMING AND THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DIFFER AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH WARMER GULF AIR INTO OUR AREA JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKING AT A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING...FREEZING RAIN NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR...AND THEN SNOW FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CAUSING NEARLY
ALL PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM EST MONDAY...
RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS HAVE REACHED BOTH BLF AND LWB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE AT BCB AND ROA BY 08Z...THEN LYH BY 09 OR
10Z...BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 12Z BEFORE REACHING DAN...AT LEAST
THE IFR CIGS MAY TAKE THAT LONG. HEAVIER PRECIP WILL LAST AT
WESTERN SITES UNTIL 13 OR 14Z...AND THEN MAY MIX IN WITH SNOW OR
SLEET AT BLF AND LWB BY ABOUT 15 OR 16Z BEFORE ENDING EARLY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SOONER. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW AT LWB AROUND 13 TO 15Z...BUT MOST
LIKELY WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN. AS RAIN BEGINS...INSITU DAMMING WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH SFC WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAY
GET OVER 10 KTS AT LYH AND DAN.
MODERATE RAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. IFR CIGS MAY LAST AT WESTERN SITES IN WEAK
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF AFTERNOON BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. LOW CONFIDENT
FCST IN TERMS OF POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
WEDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN DURING THE EVENING. KLWB
MOST LIKELY TO FINALLY GET A VFR CIG BY EVENING...AND MAYBE BLF
TOO...BUT CONCERNED THAT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS MAINTAIN LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC FLOW. MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING THIS SO AS WE GET CLOSER MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT THESE TO
VFR AT SOME POINT...AND ESPECIALLY BLF AND LWB SHOULD GO VFR FOR
AWHILE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TUES OR TUESDAY
NIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD THREAT OF PRECIP AND
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER CAOLD AIR DAMMING AGAIN...BUT THIS WILL BREAK DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS...AND
THEN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT WED TAF SITES LATER IN THE DAY WED.
ANOTHER BREAK BY WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A
VERY COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...AS
TIMING...PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND PRECIP TYPE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...
THREAT OF FLOODING ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL LOOKING
LOW...ALTHOUGH THE FROZEN...SOME THAWING GROUND...PLUS REPORTS OF
RIVER/STREAM ICE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATE PROBLEMS. FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THIS FIRST SYSTEM TONIGHT-MONDAY ARE INDICATING
GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE UPPER
ROANOKE BASIN AND PORTIONS AND JAMES. FORECASTS FROM SURROUNDING
RIVER FORECAST CENTERS SHOWING RIVERS COMING UP TO JUST UNDER ACTION
STAGES. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ALSO INDICATING LOW RISK OF FLOODING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LESS
ON PRECIP AMOUNTS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-019-020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/WP
NEAR TERM...SK/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...SK/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
943 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. SLOWED/REMOVED CHANCES OF
SNOW FOR TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. LIGHT SNOW NOW JUST GETTING
INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI. DRY AIR LIMITING NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. WENT
MORE WITH MESO MODELS TONIGHT WHICH KEEP AREA DRY. WINDS ALONG
LAKE SHORE STILL A BIT OFFSHORE...WITH MODELS SHOWING A BIT TOO
MUCH SHEAR IN LOW LEVELS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LOWER CEILINGS SEEN ALONG
LAKE MI THOUGH. LAKE CLOUDS ALSO GETTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI.
THIS WILL LIMIT/SLOW TEMP FALL THUS MADE FEW ADJUSTMENT THERE ALSO.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
COLD BUT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
THE LARGE POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE NERN PAC THAT HAS
BEEN ANCHORING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM FOR THE PAST 6-8
WEEKS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WERE SPLITTING ARND THE FEATURE...THEN MERGING BACK
TOGETHER OVER NOAM. THE TREND DURING THE FCST PERIOD WL BE FOR
THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW OVER NOAM TO GRADUALLY LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE AND
BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS THE MEAN TROF POSN SHIFTS INTO ERN
NOAM.
THIS PATTERN WL SUPPORT A FEW LGT PCPN EVENTS AT MOST...SO AMNTS
WL END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL AS
COLD CANADIAN AIR DOMINATES THE REGION. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME RECOVERY OF TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
DON/T REALLY SEE ANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABV
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION PRECIP IS PUSHING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE CYCLONE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT HAS
SLOWED ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT RUNS INTO DRY ARCTIC AIR. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE RESUMED THEIR NORTHWARD PUSH AND ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED
OUT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
A WEAK ARCTIC FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH IT NORTHEAST OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE COMMA HEAD WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO THE CLOUD COVER SINCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING NORTH WINDS
AND A STRONG INVERSION SHOULD CAUSE LAKE CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO
MOVE WELL INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL BRING LIGHT
QPF INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...MOST MESO MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH...SUGGESTING
INCREASING DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY. AM THINKING
THIS IS THE WAY TO GO SINCE MESO MODELS USUALLY DO A BETTER JOB
WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE DRY AIR. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE
MANITOWOC COUNTY WHERE NE FLOW MAY LEAD TO LAKE SNOW BANDS IMPACTING
THAT COUNTY. BUT THINK ICE COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW BANDS. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE...BUT AGAIN THINK ACCUMS WILL BE UNDER A HALF
INCH.
WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL BE IMPACTING THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
OF E-C WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD END BY
MID-MORNING AS WINDS TURN TOO NORTHERLY. THEN COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUNSHINE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETS STRETCHED OUT
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
SOME CONCERN THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WED NGT COULD SUPPORT
FLURRIES. BUT GIVEN THE DRY LAYER ARND 850 MB ON MOST OF THE
MODELS...WL HOLD OFF ADDING THOSE FOR NOW. THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN
WL BE DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS THREW A NEW WRINKLE INTO THE
MIX...WITH A MORE NLY TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV AS IT
PARTIALLY PHASES WITH THE NRN STREAM. AS A RESULT... THE GFS
GENERATED CONSIDERABLE PCPN ACRS THE AREA. BUT THAT DOES NOT HAVE
SUPPORT FM THE OTHER MODELS OR SEEM FIT WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...SO WL DISREGARD AS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW.
TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL...PROBABLY AVERAGING 10-18 F DEG BLO
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. ANY MORNINGS WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS
WILL GET QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS COULD ALSO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. BUT SUSPECT MOST PEOPLE PROBABLY WON/T PERCEIVE
IT AS BEING EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AFTER SOME OF THE WX WE HAD BACK IN
JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST CROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. LOOK
FOR INCREASING...LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SHARP
CUT-OFF TO SNOW WITH MAIN AREA FALLING SOUTH OF TAF SITES AS SNOW BAND
WILL BE FIGHTING VERY DRY AIR ARCTIC AIR. WILL KEEP SMALL MENTION
OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO APPLETON. ANY ACCUMS
WILL BE UNDER AN INCH. SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING IN THE MORNING ON
WED WITH COLD AIR SURGING IN LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
LAKE MI BRINGING SOME LOW CIGS INTO LAKESHORE AND SOUTHERN FOX
VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
FLURRIES THESE AREAS DUE TO ICE ON LAKE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........TE
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
538 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
COLD BUT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
THE LARGE POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE NERN PAC THAT HAS
BEEN ANCHORING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM FOR THE PAST 6-8
WEEKS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WERE SPLITTING ARND THE FEATURE...THEN MERGING BACK
TOGETHER OVER NOAM. THE TREND DURING THE FCST PERIOD WL BE FOR
THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW OVER NOAM TO GRADUALLY LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE AND
BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS THE MEAN TROF POSN SHIFTS INTO ERN
NOAM.
THIS PATTERN WL SUPPORT A FEW LGT PCPN EVENTS AT MOST...SO AMNTS
WL END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL AS
COLD CANADIAN AIR DOMINATES THE REGION. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME RECOVERY OF TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
DON/T REALLY SEE ANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABV
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION PRECIP IS PUSHING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE CYCLONE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT HAS
SLOWED ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT RUNS INTO DRY ARCTIC AIR. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE RESUMED THEIR NORTHWARD PUSH AND ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED
OUT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
A WEAK ARCTIC FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH IT NORTHEAST OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE COMMA HEAD WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO THE CLOUD COVER SINCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING NORTH WINDS
AND A STRONG INVERSION SHOULD CAUSE LAKE CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO
MOVE WELL INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL BRING LIGHT
QPF INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...MOST MESO MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH...SUGGESTING
INCREASING DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY. AM THINKING
THIS IS THE WAY TO GO SINCE MESO MODELS USUALLY DO A BETTER JOB
WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE DRY AIR. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE
MANITOWOC COUNTY WHERE NE FLOW MAY LEAD TO LAKE SNOW BANDS IMPACTING
THAT COUNTY. BUT THINK ICE COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW BANDS. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE...BUT AGAIN THINK ACCUMS WILL BE UNDER A HALF
INCH.
WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL BE IMPACTING THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
OF E-C WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD END BY
MID-MORNING AS WINDS TURN TOO NORTHERLY. THEN COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUNSHINE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETS STRETCHED OUT
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
SOME CONCERN THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WED NGT COULD SUPPORT
FLURRIES. BUT GIVEN THE DRY LAYER ARND 850 MB ON MOST OF THE
MODELS...WL HOLD OFF ADDING THOSE FOR NOW. THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN
WL BE DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS THREW A NEW WRINKLE INTO THE
MIX...WITH A MORE NLY TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV AS IT
PARTIALLY PHASES WITH THE NRN STREAM. AS A RESULT... THE GFS
GENERATED CONSIDERABLE PCPN ACRS THE AREA. BUT THAT DOES NOT HAVE
SUPPORT FM THE OTHER MODELS OR SEEM FIT WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...SO WL DISREGARD AS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW.
TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL...PROBABLY AVERAGING 10-18 F DEG BLO
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. ANY MORNINGS WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS
WILL GET QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS COULD ALSO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. BUT SUSPECT MOST PEOPLE PROBABLY WON/T PERCEIVE
IT AS BEING EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AFTER SOME OF THE WX WE HAD BACK IN
JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST CROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. LOOK
FOR INCREASING...LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SHARP
CUT-OFF TO SNOW WITH MAIN AREA FALLING SOUTH OF TAF SITES AS SNOW BAND
WILL BE FIGHTING VERY DRY AIR ARCTIC AIR. WILL KEEP SMALL MENTION
OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO APPLETON. ANY ACCUMS
WILL BE UNDER AN INCH. SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING IN THE MORNING ON
WED WITH COLD AIR SURGING IN LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
LAKE MI BRINGING SOME LOW CIGS INTO LAKESHORE AND SOUTHERN FOX
VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
FLURRIES THESE AREAS DUE TO ICE ON LAKE. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
COLD BUT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
THE LARGE POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE NERN PAC THAT HAS
BEEN ANCHORING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM FOR THE PAST 6-8
WEEKS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WERE SPLITTING ARND THE FEATURE...THEN MERGING BACK
TOGETHER OVER NOAM. THE TREND DURING THE FCST PERIOD WL BE FOR
THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW OVER NOAM TO GRADUALLY LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE AND
BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS THE MEAN TROF POSN SHIFTS INTO ERN
NOAM.
THIS PATTERN WL SUPPORT A FEW LGT PCPN EVENTS AT MOST...SO AMNTS
WL END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL AS
COLD CANADIAN AIR DOMINATES THE REGION. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME RECOVERY OF TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
DON/T REALLY SEE ANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABV
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION PRECIP IS PUSHING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE CYCLONE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT HAS
SLOWED ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT RUNS INTO DRY ARCTIC AIR. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE RESUMED THEIR NORTHWARD PUSH AND ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED
OUT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
A WEAK ARCTIC FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH IT NORTHEAST OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE COMMA HEAD WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO THE CLOUD COVER SINCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING NORTH WINDS
AND A STRONG INVERSION SHOULD CAUSE LAKE CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO
MOVE WELL INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL BRING LIGHT
QPF INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...MOST MESO MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH...SUGGESTING
INCREASING DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY. AM THINKING
THIS IS THE WAY TO GO SINCE MESO MODELS USUALLY DO A BETTER JOB
WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE DRY AIR. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE
MANITOWOC COUNTY WHERE NE FLOW MAY LEAD TO LAKE SNOW BANDS IMPACTING
THAT COUNTY. BUT THINK ICE COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW BANDS. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE...BUT AGAIN THINK ACCUMS WILL BE UNDER A HALF
INCH.
WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL BE IMPACTING THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
OF E-C WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD END BY
MID-MORNING AS WINDS TURN TOO NORTHERLY. THEN COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUNSHINE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETS STRETCHED OUT
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
SOME CONCERN THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WED NGT COULD SUPPORT
FLURRIES. BUT GIVEN THE DRY LAYER ARND 850 MB ON MOST OF THE
MODELS...WL HOLD OFF ADDING THOSE FOR NOW. THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN
WL BE DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS THREW A NEW WRINKLE INTO THE
MIX...WITH A MORE NLY TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV AS IT
PARTIALLY PHASES WITH THE NRN STREAM. AS A RESULT... THE GFS
GENERATED CONSIDERABLE PCPN ACRS THE AREA. BUT THAT DOES NOT HAVE
SUPPORT FM THE OTHER MODELS OR SEEM FIT WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...SO WL DISREGARD AS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW.
TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL...PROBABLY AVERAGING 10-18 F DEG BLO
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. ANY MORNINGS WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS
WILL GET QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS COULD ALSO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. BUT SUSPECT MOST PEOPLE PROBABLY WON/T PERCEIVE
IT AS BEING EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AFTER SOME OF THE WX WE HAD BACK IN
JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GRADUALLY LOWERING TO LOW END VFR. SOME MODELS BRING
LIGHT SNOW INTO AN AREA SOUTH OF A MARSHFIELD TO GREEN BAY LINE.
THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FIGHTING VERY DRY AIR ARCTIC AIR AND THINK
THIS MAY BE TOO AMBITIOUS. WILL EXAMINE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
RAPIDS TO APPLETON. ANY ACCUMS WILL BE UNDER AN INCH. IF THE SNOW
MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH...WILL BE DEPARTING BY 15Z AND CIGS WILL BE
GRADUALLY LIFTING. THIS MAY NOT BE TRUE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP A LOW MVFR BKN
DECK IN PLACE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING OVERCAST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
STRONG INVERSTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SEEN ON RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LATER TONIGHT...LESS SO ON THE NAM AND GFS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO DROP
QUICKLY...BEFORE MORE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
WENT COOLER THAN THE CONSENSUS SHORT TERM MODELS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE. BROUGHT HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 20S TUESDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA.
KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTH...LOWER TO THE NORTH...WITH PUSH OF MODEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE AND STRONG Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATING BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH
COULD DELAY THE START TIME OF THE SNOW IN THE SOUTH. IT APPREAS THAT
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTHENING UPPER JET FROM
AROUND 185 KNOTS JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS RESULTS IN WEAK TO MODERATE UPWARD DURING THE EVENING...WITH
WEAK UPWARD MOTION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER DYNAMICS APPEARS TO BE THE REASON FOR THE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION OF THE MODELS SO FAR NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. THE
12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A LOW FROM ARKANSAS
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE REACHING JUST EAST OF LAKE EIRE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
GIVEN THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A WIDE
AREA OF MODERATE SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF LINGERING THE SNOW
LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
24 HOUR NAM QPF VALUES ARE AROUND 0.20 FROM LONE ROCK TO
SHEBOYGAN TO 0.32 OVER RACINE AND KENOSHA. THERE IS SOME LAKE
ENHANCMENT FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA AND ACROSS WALWORTH
COUNTY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IS AROUND HALF THE QPF FROM THE
NAM.
WITH RATHER HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 15 TO 1...
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY...AND ADVISORIES FOR SNOW
WOULD BE NEEDED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
CONSENSUS OF QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE SHORTWAVE REACHES A CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW THAT FLATTENS AND
WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
700 MB LAYERS DO NOT DRY MUCH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB LAYER
DOES. 950 MB RH IS RATHER HIGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
DUE TO A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL BY NOON AS THE 850 MB DRIESAND
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE 700 MB RH
DECREASES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
ANOTHER COLD PERIOD. WIND CHILLS MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY AND EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE 00Z ECMWF SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 06Z
DGEX IS SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.
THE GFS/DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND DGEX ARE SLOWER BRINGING THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND NOW DO NOT CLOSE OFF
THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE 12Z GFS IS STILL THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WITH A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE THAT HAS A SECOND LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS TENNESSEE AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF HAS A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. THE 06Z
DGEX IN IN BETWEEN...BUT EVEN THE NORTHERN GFS ONLY BRUSHES THE
KENOSHA AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH OVERCAST CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN SPEED LATE IN THE DAY. ANY SNOW
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH PASSING
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING HIGH WAVES NEAR THE SHORE IN
ICE FREE AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1133 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014
FAIRLY QUIET MID-WINTER WX WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT TIMES.
THE FLOW OVER THE NERN PAC WL BECOME INCREASINGLY BLOCKY AS STG
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY GRADUALLY RETROGRADES TOWARD THE
DATELINE. THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH SRN AND
NRN STREAMS UNDERCUTTING AND FLOWING ARND THE NERN PAC BLOCK
/RESP/ BEFORE MERGING BACK TOGETHER OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE FCST
AREA HAS BECOME POSITIONED WITHIN THE CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE
MERGING STREAMS...AND THAT SHOULD CONT FOR THE FCST PERIOD. THAT
WL DIRECT THE MAIN WX PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARND THE AREA TO THE N AND
S...LEADING TO FAIRLY TRANQUIL MIX-WINTER WX. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES AT TIMES AS THE FCST AREA GETS GRAZED BY THE TAIL OF
NRN STREAM SHRTWVS OR THE NRN FRINGE OF SRN STREAM CYCLONES...BUT
THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIG PCPN EVENTS. TEMPS WL REMAIN WELL
BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS BRUTALLY COLD AS THEY WERE AT TIMES DURING
JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS IS MOVING
JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE
MAY JUST BRUSH NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS
FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVAILING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...AND UPSTREAM AS WELL OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS A RESULT...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL AND INCLUDE MAINLY TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. RATHER THIN LOW STRATUS DECK WILL GRAZE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. 1000-850MB WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 20
KTS...WHICH IS TYPICALLY MARGINAL FOR DECOUPLING. BUT A RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH WILL SUPPORT WINDS
DROPPING OFF. THINK CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL HAVE A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR THIS TO OCCUR...BUT DROPPED TEMPS EVERYWHERE SINCE IT WONT TAKE
VERY LONG FOR TEMPS TO TANK. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS...TEMPS FELL TO
20 BELOW WHERE WINDS WENT CALM...BUT GENERALLY STAYED BETWEEN 5 AND
10 BELOW WHERE WINDS REMAINED 3-5 KTS. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THIS
RANGE...WITH A FEW COLDER TEMPS IN THE COLD SPOTS.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OVER ONTARIO
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A WARMER DAY DESPITE A VERY COLD START.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014
LITTLE CHG TO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF WX EVENTS SINCE YDA. FCST
AREA WL BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF CYCLONE HEADED THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATL STATES TUE NGT/WED. THE EXACT POSN OF
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD IS TOUGH TO GAUGE...SO KEPT CHC
POPS ACRS ABOUT THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA WED. UNLESS THERE IS
SUDDENLY A BIG SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM /WHICH SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT/ THINK THE VERY MOST WE/D BE ABLE TO DO IS
SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER THE FAR SE PART OF THE
FCST AREA. KEPT POPS IN CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE HEADED ENEWD FM THE PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS WERE FURTHER N WITH THAT SYSTEM...BUT THEN AGAIN
EARLY MODEL RUNS WERE TOO FAR N WITH YDAS SYSTEM AND WL LIKELY
END UP BEING TOO FAR N WITH THE SYSTEM FOR TUE NGT/WED INTIALLY AS
WELL.
TEMPS WL PROBABLY AVERAGE 8-16 F DEG BLO NORMAL. THATS
SIGNIFICANT...BUT NOTHING SPECIAL AFTER THE 2 BRUTALLY COLD SNAPS
BACK IN JANUARY. AS TYPICAL...OVERNIGHT LOWS WL DEPEND HEAVILY ON
CLDS AND WINDS. THE AIR MASS WL EASILY SUPPORT DOUBLE DIGIT BLO
ZERO MINS ON ANY NIGHTS WITH SEVERAL HRS OF CLR SKIES AND LGT
WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE STATE MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TROF MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A WK COLD FRONT THROUGH STATE MON
EVENING. NO PCPN ECPECTED...THOUGH LOOK FOR SOME INCREASING MID
AND HIGH MOISTURE MON EVENING AHEAD OF SYSTEM PASSING TO THE
SOUTH OF STATE TUE TIMEFRAME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
426 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS WELL AS A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT COLD WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ***
400 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. A LARGE SWATH OF
SNOW IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE
INDICATING THIS STORM IS STRENGTHENING. SEVERAL SITES IN CT ARE DOWN
TO A HALF OF A MILE AND MODERATELY SNOWING. IN FACT NEWARK AIRPORT
HAS RECEIVED 2 INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR TO HOUR AN A HALF.
TODAY...
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH OPEN 700 MB WAVE TO MOVE FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER TODAY. ONGOING SNOW
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT 12Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK FRONT END THUMP OF SNOW. WITH THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH EXCELLENT
SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECT SNOW FALL RATES BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR. THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND REDUCE VSBYS
AT OR BELOW A HALF OF A MILE.
AS THE DAY PROGRESS...APPEARS THAT A GOOD 800 MB WARM NOSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 13-15Z. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST OF THE
MODELS PUSHING A 3C WARM NOSE WITHIN THE THERMAL LAYER...WHERE AS
THE GFS IS ONLY A 1.5C WARM NOSE. REGARDLESS THERE IS A WARM NOSE
INTRUDING INTO THE LAYER WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL ALTER SNOWFALL TOTALS AND TRY TO SHOW THAT WITHIN THE
FORECAST. BEST LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
MA/RI/CT BORDER WHERE ICE ACCRETION MAY REACH BETWEEN AN TRACE
AND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS CENTRAL CT AND SOUTHERN RI. BELIEVE SLEET
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCE JUST SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE THE WARM
NOSE WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCE AND HYDROMETEORS WILL STRUGGLE TO
MELT FULLY. NORTH OF THE PIKE...WILL BE ALL SNOW.
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE WARM AIR WILL INCREASE SURFACE TEMPS
ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO JUST RAIN. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE NORTH OF THE PIKE. THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REALLY DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE BY 18Z BUT FEEL THAT THIS MAY BE TO QUICKLY ESP
LOOKING AT THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM. ONE THING TO NOTE AS PREV
FORECASTER DID IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
AT 700 MB...A DRY SLOT. THIS MAY SHUT DOWN THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW
SOUTH OF THE MA/CT/RI BORDER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER
BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...AND DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS IT COULD BE MORE OF A
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO.
BECAUSE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS SNOW STORMS EXPECT A 10:1
SNOW RATIO WITH THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL A GOOD AMOUNT
OF VARIABLES...BELIEVE THAT A LARGE SWATH OF 8-12 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF PIKE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEARING 14 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE MA/CT/RI BORDER BELIEVE 5-9 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING THIS MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET EVENT. CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS EXPECT 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH PERHAPS A TRACE TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE. KEPT CURRENT HEADLINES AS THIS TIME FOR MORE OF
AN THREAT AND IMPACT FACTOR ESP AS THE HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL RIGHT
AT THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE ICE
ACCRETION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TODAY WILL EJECT
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. CAA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION QUICKLY
AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY DUE TO THE DEPARTING LOW. A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR SOME
SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY...BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE...ESP NORTH OF
THE PIKE. SOUTH OF THE PIKE APPEARS THAT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE SO MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY SET UP IS POSSIBLE.
THIS MAY WARRANT AN EXTENSION IN THE ADVISORY...BUT BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY HELD OFF FOR NOW.
MODELS SEEM TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
MOISTURE AND SNOW WITHIN SAID REGION OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS ANOTHER HALF
INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY WEAK
OCEAN EFFECTS. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE TO 850MB TEMP SPREAD IS NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE...A DIFFERENCE OF 10C.
OVERALL ANTICIPATE THE STORM TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN BY THE EVENING
HOURS AND LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST LINE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BELOW AVERAGE...NEARING SINGLE DIGITS HOWEVER UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A
TAD AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER KEEPING TEMPS FROM RADIATING
OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND COLD WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
* ANOTHER WINTER STORM "POSSIBLE" SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
DETAILS...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY WILL RESULT IN COLD WEATHER INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...THE TRUE
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THERE MAY BE JUST A FEW LEFT OVER OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST THU MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WE HAVE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THIS TIME. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DIVING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES ARE
STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CAUSING THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK INSIDE THE BENCHMARK. MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SHARP WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
IN SUMMARY...THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT WILL EVOLVE.
WHILE MOST MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...THEY HINT AT AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP. THIS MEANS
THAT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW PULLED WESTWARD...EVEN IF THE LOW
TRACKS WELL TOO OUR EAST. ALSO...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AT IT WILL BE LOADED WITH MOISTURE...GIVEN ITS SOUTHERN
ORIGINS. IF IT ENDS UP TRENDING FURTHER WEST THAN A LOT OF THE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS TONIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT WOULD OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME RANGE...WE STILL NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE.
TUESDAY...
DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE ON TIMING AND PTYPE.
TODAY... VFR TO START BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR IN
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO PER
HOUR STARTING AT 11Z AND LASTING UNTIL 15Z-18Z...THEN TAPERING TO
LIGHTER SNOW THEREAFTER. HOWEVER NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND INTO
SOUTHWEST NH MODERATE SNOW WILL LINGER UNTIL TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SLEET
AND SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE 14Z-18Z. PLOWABLE SNOW WILL
OCCUR ACROSS ALL SITES WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 6-12 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTION OF CT-RI INTO CENTRAL-NORTHERN MA INCLUDING THE
MA PIKE AND INTO BOSTON.
TONIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING HOWEVER EXPECT LINGERING
IFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. HEAVIEST SNOW 11Z-16Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. HEAVIEST SNOW 09Z-15Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME
SNOW. TIMING/INTENSITY AND POSSIBLE DURATION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...
LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. SNOW CHANGES
TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN DURING THE MORNING...EXCEPT NORTH OF CAPE
COD WHERE PRECIP SHOULD STAY AT ALL SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE
ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TONIGHT...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LOW DEPARTS TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES. WINDS WILL BE NEAR 25KTS AND SEAS NEAR 7FT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LINGERING SCA SEAS FROM LEFT OVER SWELL EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY FLOW
AND COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SEAS AND NORTHEAST WINDS MAY INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT ONLY IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002>022-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ023.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-
012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ001>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE AWAY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND SHARPER AT 850MB
THAN THE WRF-NMMB. THEY BOTH LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AT 925MB. ALTHOUGH IN
REAL TIME WE COULD NOT FIND A MODEL THAT WAS HANDLING THE PTYPE OR
SURFACE TEMPS WELL. THE HRRR WAS COMING THE CLOSEST WITH THE LATTER,
BUT EVEN ITS SNOWFALL FORECASTS WHICH HAVE DONE WELL THIS WINTER ARE
TOO INFLATED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 78.
IN TERMS OF ICE ASOS BASED MEASUREMENTS ARE 0.2 TO 0.25 AT PTW AND
TTN RESPECTIVELY. POWER OUTAGES IN OUR CWA ARE OCCURRING FROM
MONMOUTH AND I95 CORRIDOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SERN PA AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE. ROUGH ESTIMATE BASED ON UTILITY WEB SITES ARE SEVERAL
THOUSAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER SUSQ VLY IS GETTING HIT HARDER
WITH OUTAGES PRESENTLY.
IN TERMS OF WINTRY PTYPE DETAILS, EVEN AT THIS LATE STAGE CONFIDENCE
IS LESS THAN USUAL. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG
THE I80 CORRIDOR AS THE SECONDARY TAKES OVER. MODELING IS STILL
SHOWING PLENTY OF SUBZERO TEMPS AT 925MB IN THE PHL NRN SUBURBS AND
RARITAN BASIN EVEN WITH THE SURGE OF 850MB TEMPS GOING FARTHER NORTH.
PCPN INTENSITY HAS CHANGED THE PCPN BACK TO SLEET AND EVEN SNOW, BUT
THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE LEAVING OUR CWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
SO OUR FAR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WE HAVE FALLEN BACK TO SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOKING FOR IT TO REMAIN MAINLY SNOW. ONCE WE GET INTO
THE I78 AND I80 CORRIDORS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SHAKIER AS IT COULD
VERY WELL BE MORE SLEET. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS LESS FREEZING RAIN
IN THAT AREA. WE LOWERED ICE AMOUNTS THERE. FOR THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TEMPERATURES ARE
TEETERING CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS HAS HELPED HOLD DOWN ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AS HAS THE HEAVY RAIN. PROBLEM IS THE HEAVIER PCPN IS
MOVING AWAY (LESS WARM RAIN TO RAISE TEMPS AND ALSO FALL QUICKER
BEFORE FREEZING ON EXPOSED SURFACES) AND THE SECONDARY HAS FORMED.
WINDS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH FROM SNOW COVERED AREAS BASED ON THE
TRENDS IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP A STATUS QUO. SO UNTIL WE GET
INDIRECT SUNLIGHT TO PUSH US OVER THE EDGE, NONE OF THE PRESENT
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED. WE KEPT ICE ACCUMULATION
VALUES BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES IN THE AXIS FROM THE PHL NW SUBURBS
INTO THE RARITAN BASIN.
THERE IS SOME DPVA TO STILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THIS EVENT SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES, COLDER AIR STARTS MOVING
BACK IN ALOFT AND ANY LATE IN THE DAY PCPN NORTH SHOULD BE SNOW.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF OUR CWA AND BEING
FORTUNATE TO HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, THE ICE SHOULD START
MELTING OFF OF EXPOSED SURFACES AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
EXACERBATE POWER OUTAGES. GFS MOS IS FAIRLY WARM AND LOOKS TOO WARM
GIVEN THE SNOW COVER AROUND THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
STILL ANOTHER SHOT OF PVA TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH THIS EVENING AND WE
KEPT THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS THIS EVENING, TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE AS THE SECONDARY, OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD THEN
BE A PROBLEM IF ICE REMAINS ON ANY TREES OR WIRES. MIN TEMPS WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND FREEZE ANY UNTREATED
STANDING WATER OR SLUSH.
THEN A QUIET, BUT COLD DAY FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
EASES EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK RELATIVELY DRY, SO SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO CLOUDY BASED ON THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING, EVEN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING TREACHEROUS WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM DID NOT
TOUCH THE LONGTERM GRIDS THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUSLY...
AS ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED...ANOTHER WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S GFS AND EC MODELS
DEPICT TWO SEPARATE BATCHES OF ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE W/CENTRAL
US TROUGH. SINCE THE BATCHES OF ENERGY ARE SEPARATE...THIS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING A BLOCKBUSTER STORM (AS SOME OF
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT). THE FIRST AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NGT BRINGING AN
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO (MOSTLY) THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER ACTIONS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, THEN A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH/WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD BE A RAINS/SNOW MIXTURE...ENDING AS SOME
STEADY SNOW EARLY MON MORNING. AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY HAVE MOSTLY
SNOW...WHILE MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE POPS/WX FOR
THE WEEKEND ON THE CONTINUITY `RAILS` AND KEEP HI CHC/LOW LIKELY
POPS FROM SAT NIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THE TWO SYSTEMS
DO AGAIN MERGE...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER STORM COULD STILL
EVOLVE...SO WE ARE STILL ADVISING PARTNERS TO BE PREPARED FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND. WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THE
AFTERNOON WILL CARRY ON AS BEFORE.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY AND LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS MORNING...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET, WITH SOME SNOW
MIXED IN AROUND RDG AND ABE, ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW THIS MORNING, IFR OR WORSE, AS WE SLOWLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING PUTTING AN END TO THE FREEZING RAIN AND GIVING US JUST
PLAIN RAIN. THE TWO QUESTIONABLE SPOTS WILL BE RDG AND ABE IN TERMS
OF THE PLAIN RAIN TRANSITION WHICH COULD TAKE UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF OF DELMARVA MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE CIGS AND VSBYS
AS THE RAIN SLOWLY TAPERS OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND WE TURN THE WINDS MORE TOWARDS THE
WEST. THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE LOW-LEVELS AND WE SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND GUST UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU LATE FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED.
SAT MORNING THRU SUN...MOSTLY MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS SNOW/RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN ZONES NOW THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, MOSTLY FOR SEAS AT THIS POINT, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCA GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ADDED
THE DELAWARE BAY FOR GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FUNNELING OF
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP ACHIEVE SCA GUSTS. UN-SURE OF HOW
LONG PAST TONIGHT THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA
AS THE COASTAL LOW PROVIDING THE HIGHER SEAS AND GUSTS QUICKLY MOVES
OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST.
OUTLOOK...
THU THRU SAT NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUN MORNING
THRU TUE MORNING...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. GALES
POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
055.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ060>062-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ009-
010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ020>022-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
013-015>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-
015-019-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1140 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE EVENING UPDATE INCLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND
SPEEDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH TONIGHT AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL. LOW
OVERCAST WILL BUFFER JUST HOW COLD WE GET BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN -15 AND -25 BY MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH 8 OR 9 AM. THE WIND IS NOT CAUSING
VISIBILITY ISSUES UP NORTH AND THERE IS LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED TO
FALL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS NOT NEEDED BUT OPEN AREAS MAY SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER WAVE IS LIFTING MAINLY
EAST SO WE WILL MISS OUT ON THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FOR THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT BUT THE RAP AND THE NAM HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE
SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA SO WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 4 TO 6 MORE
HOURS OF MODERATELY ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. RADAR IS SHOWING A
DEFORMATION ZONE TRYING TO SET UP BUT IT IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AND REALLY HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING
ESTABLISHED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT BUT THE WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE BLOWING ALL NIGHT AND PUSHING THE SNOW AROUND. THE
SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL DICTATE THE HEADLINES TOMORROW AS THE WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
SNOW ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WITH WIDE SPREAD
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO ONE MILE OR LESS DUE TO SNOW. GENERAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE DES MOINES METRO REGION. CURRENT SNOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD QG FORCING AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH AND GOOD MOISTURE OVERRUNNING INTO THE REGION. THE BULK OF
THIS FORCING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
THUS HAVE NOT HAD THE PEAK SNOW RATIOS YET.
THE WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO TWO DEFINED
DEFORMATION ZONES WITH THE PRIMARY TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH A SECONDARY
DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 30. THE DEPTH OF THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE LAYER. THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WITH RANGE FROM NEAR 950 MB TO 600 MB BY 6 PM. SNOW
RATIOS WILL APPROACH 20 TO 1 FOR A PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW FALL RATES EXCEEDING ONE INCH PER HOUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FOCUSED ON THE HIGHWAY 30 TO
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDORS. THEREFORE OVERALL EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL
RATES NEAR ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR INCREASING TO ONE INCH PER HOUR
FOR A PERIOD. DUE TO THIS...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS LIKELY
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAVE LIFTED TO WINTER STORM WARNING
TO INCLUDE BOONE...STORY AND MARSHALL COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DRIVES SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERAL HOURS OF NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH IS EXPECTED CAUSING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE NEW FLUFFY SNOW. POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPS
FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS MASON CITY AND WAVERLY THAT ALREADY HAVE
SNOW IN PLACE BUT ARE OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY. FINALLY WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL DIP TO 20 TO 25 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. HAVE OPTED TO
NOT ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR THIS. MAY BE ABLE TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH FOR WIND CHILLS AND AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW...IF IT DEVELOPS NORTH.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH LINGERING SNOW CHANCES TOMORROW AND
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/SREF
TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY...THEN GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDED BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLE FLURRIES TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SKIRTS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND KEEPS IOWA WITHIN THE CAA REGIME. THE 850MB
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO -20C BY 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS
LOOK TO RANGE IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW RANGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. ESPECIALLY WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 12 TO 18 BELOW ZERO RANGE.
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH AS THE 12Z MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND ALLOWS FOR SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW BY FRIDAY. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE WAA DEVELOPS PAST 06Z.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ECMWF
IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
SATURDAY. THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ABOVE THE DENDRITIC LAYER
BUT THE MCW/ALO/DSM GFS SOUNDINGS DEEPLY SATURATED IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 750MB BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS...SO BLSN SEEMS
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CAA CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND AN EVEN
COLDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS PLANTING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER IOWA BY 12Z MONDAY. TRENDED COLDER FOR LOW
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
AREAS OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH
09-12Z THOUGH RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF SNOW DIMINISHING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12Z. SFC WIND WILL REMAIN N TO
NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 15KTS AFT 18Z BUT MAY
STILL BE GUSTY ACROSS EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BOONE-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-JASPER-
LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR AUDUBON-
BLACK HAWK-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HARDIN-SAC-TAMA-WEBSTER.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CERRO GORDO-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1100 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
UPGRADED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO A WIND
CHILL WARNING. WE HAVE EXCEEDED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...WIND
CHILL READINGS 25 BELOW ZERO OR LESS...ALREADY AT KGLD WITH A
READING AROUND 1030 PM MST OF 27 BELOW ZERO. WE HAVE FLIRTED WITH
CRITERIA ALREADY AT KITR IN ADDITION TO A FEW OTHER SITES SO
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE. WINDS ARE STAYING UP A COUPLE KNOTS
HIGHER LONGER THAN EXPECTED SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO UPGRADE.
WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO ARE NOW EXPECTED BY
THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS
OCCURRING NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
EVENING. OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
LATEST HRRR...CONSSHORT AND NAM GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT HAS WIDESPREAD -10 TO -15...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS
-20...TEMPERATURES BY THE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THOUGHT THIS WAS A LITTLE EXTREME SO TEMPERED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
CONSSHORT AND THE LATEST NAM. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WATCHING WIND
CHILLS VERY CLOSELY AS WE COULD APPROACH TO BRIEFLY EXCEED WIND
CHILL WARNING CRITERIA IF THESE TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE WINTER STORM IS BEGINNING TO RELEASE ITS GRIP ON THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS EVENING. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS
WELL AS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL REDUCE
THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE.
DECIDED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE MILE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. ISSUED A
NOWCAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE STILL
MAY BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF VISIBILITIES AT TO JUST BELOW ONE
MILE.
IN OTHER NEWS...TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WENT AHEAD AS PLANNED WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ONLY
CHANGE WAS TO MAKE THE BEGINNING TIME AS 7 PM CST...6 PM MST. SOME
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SPECIFICALLY...KGLD WAS AT -15...KITR WAS AT -15 ...YUMA COLORADO
WAS AT -16...AND A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS WERE NEAR CRITERIA. THOSE
WOULD BE KMCK AT -13 AND KHLC AT -12. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
WATCH ON TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS WE MAY FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS WIND CHILLS 25 BELOW ZERO. LATEST
GUIDANCE AS OF 18Z CAME IN A LITTLE COLD SO REFLECTED THAT IN THE
GRIDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW LOOK QUITE COLD...HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
JUST ABOVE ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
SATELLITE AND RADAR RETURNS SHOW DECREASING TREND MATCHING MODEL
GUIDANCE. OBS STILL REPORTING LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY REPORTED BETWEEN 1/2SM TO 2SM. ACTUAL SNOW INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY.
THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF LIGHT SNOW
COMBINING WITH WIND/BLOWING SNOW.
LINGERING LIFT/MOISTURE COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING AS THE INITIAL MID LEVEL WAVE EXITS. WITH
FORCING/MOISTURE MUCH WEAKER/LESS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIMITED. WE MIGHT SEE ANOTHER HALF IN TO ONE INCH IN THE FAR
EAST THIS EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET...SO WHILE DRIFTING OR MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING VISIBILITIES OVERALL
SHOULD BE IMPROVING. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE
EXPIRATION OF THE ADVISORY THROUGH 03Z FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WHILE EXPIRING THE ADVISORY IN THE WEST WHEN THE TIME COMES.
THIS IS IF CONDITIONS ARE SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE EAST WHERE
WINDS MAY BE STRONGER. AT THIS POINT I AM PLANNING NO CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY...WITH EVERYTHING ON TRACK.
OTHER THAN BUMPING UP POPS SOME IN THE EVENING...I DID ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PASSES NORTH.
ANY ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAYBE A
DUSTING POSSIBLE (AT THE MOST).
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S
DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS...AND THE PLAN IS
TO WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT WSW IS EXPIRED TO AVOID CONFUSION
REGARDING THE WSW STATEMENTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUDY BUT DRY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY
STAY NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL STAY
CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW. WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY BRING A
LIGHT DUSTING OF AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW SNOW. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SYSTEM MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING TO 20
BELOW...BUT STILL EXPECTING THEM TO REACH THE 10 TO 15 BELOW
RANGE. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW RETURN WITH DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING...MORE WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IS NOT LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE JET
STREAMS ARE NO LONGER PHASED AND IT COMES OUT IN TWO PIECES. THE
FIRST ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS TOO FAR SOUTH BUT THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON SATURDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SNOWPACK...BUT MODELS INDICATE UP TO 40KTS IN THE 0-1KM LAYER
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH NEW SNOW ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES AND IF THE OLD SNOWPACK CAN
ICE OVER ON A DAY WITH SOME SUN. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW COMES ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN THE
NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG DEAL AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST...SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY TAPERED OFF AT KGLD AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AT KMCK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BEHIND THE
SNOWFALL...MIST HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SNOW PACK SO HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VISIBILITY AT KGLD TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. KMCK WILL START
OUT IFR WITH SNOWFALL AND BECOME MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
SNOWFALL ENDS AT 09Z. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS LAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW WITH VISIBILITY RETURNING TO VFR
IN THE MORNING AROUND 12Z. LOW OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD BECOME VFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 0Z FOR KMCK AND 3Z FOR KGLD.
THE CLEARING TOMORROW EVENING IS REFLECTED IN GFS MOS GUIDANCE
AND SEEMS MOST PROBABLE CONSIDERING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE
DEPARTING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016-029-042.
CO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ079-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
923 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
EVENING. OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
LATEST HRRR...CONSSHORT AND NAM GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER
AS IT HAS WIDESPREAD -10 TO -15...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS
-20...TEMPERATURES BY THE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THOUGHT THIS WAS A LITTLE EXTREME SO TEMPERED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
CONSSHORT AND THE LATEST NAM. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WATCHING WIND
CHILLS VERY CLOSELY AS WE COULD APPROACH TO BRIEFLY EXCEED WIND
CHILL WARNING CRITERIA IF THESE TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE WINTER STORM IS BEGINNING TO RELEASE ITS GRIP ON THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS EVENING. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS
WELL AS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL REDUCE
THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE.
DECIDED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE MILE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. ISSUED A
NOWCAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE STILL
MAY BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF VISIBILITIES AT TO JUST BELOW ONE
MILE.
IN OTHER NEWS...TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WENT AHEAD AS PLANNED WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ONLY
CHANGE WAS TO MAKE THE BEGINNING TIME AS 7 PM CST...6 PM MST. SOME
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SPECIFICALLY...KGLD WAS AT -15...KITR WAS AT -15 ...YUMA COLORADO
WAS AT -16...AND A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS WERE NEAR CRITERIA. THOSE
WOULD BE KMCK AT -13 AND KHLC AT -12. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
WATCH ON TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS WE MAY FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS WIND CHILLS 25 BELOW ZERO. LATEST
GUIDANCE AS OF 18Z CAME IN A LITTLE COLD SO REFLECTED THAT IN THE
GRIDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW LOOK QUITE COLD...HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
JUST ABOVE ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
SATELLITE AND RADAR RETURNS SHOW DECREASING TREND MATCHING MODEL
GUIDANCE. OBS STILL REPORTING LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY REPORTED BETWEEN 1/2SM TO 2SM. ACTUAL SNOW INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY.
THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF LIGHT SNOW
COMBINING WITH WIND/BLOWING SNOW.
LINGERING LIFT/MOISTURE COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING AS THE INITIAL MID LEVEL WAVE EXITS. WITH
FORCING/MOISTURE MUCH WEAKER/LESS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIMITED. WE MIGHT SEE ANOTHER HALF IN TO ONE INCH IN THE FAR
EAST THIS EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET...SO WHILE DRIFTING OR MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING VISIBILITIES OVERALL
SHOULD BE IMPROVING. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE
EXPIRATION OF THE ADVISORY THROUGH 03Z FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WHILE EXPIRING THE ADVISORY IN THE WEST WHEN THE TIME COMES.
THIS IS IF CONDITIONS ARE SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE EAST WHERE
WINDS MAY BE STRONGER. AT THIS POINT I AM PLANNING NO CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY...WITH EVERYTHING ON TRACK.
OTHER THAN BUMPING UP POPS SOME IN THE EVENING...I DID ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PASSES NORTH.
ANY ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH MAYBE A
DUSTING POSSIBLE (AT THE MOST).
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S
DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS...AND THE PLAN IS
TO WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT WSW IS EXPIRED TO AVOID CONFUSION
REGARDING THE WSW STATEMENTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUDY BUT DRY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY
STAY NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL STAY
CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW. WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY BRING A
LIGHT DUSTING OF AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW SNOW. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SYSTEM MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING TO 20
BELOW...BUT STILL EXPECTING THEM TO REACH THE 10 TO 15 BELOW
RANGE. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW RETURN WITH DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING...MORE WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IS NOT LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE JET
STREAMS ARE NO LONGER PHASED AND IT COMES OUT IN TWO PIECES. THE
FIRST ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS TOO FAR SOUTH BUT THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON SATURDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SNOWPACK...BUT MODELS INDICATE UP TO 40KTS IN THE 0-1KM LAYER
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH NEW SNOW ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES AND IF THE OLD SNOWPACK CAN
ICE OVER ON A DAY WITH SOME SUN. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW COMES ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN THE
NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG DEAL AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST...SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY TAPERED OFF AT KGLD AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AT KMCK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BEHIND THE
SNOWFALL...MIST HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SNOW PACK SO HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VISIBILITY AT KGLD TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. KMCK WILL START
OUT IFR WITH SNOWFALL AND BECOME MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
SNOWFALL ENDS AT 09Z. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS LAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW WITH VISIBILITY RETURNING TO VFR
IN THE MORNING AROUND 12Z. LOW OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD BECOME VFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 0Z FOR KMCK AND 3Z FOR KGLD.
THE CLEARING TOMORROW EVENING IS REFLECTED IN GFS MOS GUIDANCE
AND SEEMS MOST PROBABLE CONSIDERING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE
DEPARTING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1249 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH WARMER AIR BEING JUST A
TOUCH SLOWER MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THINK THIS MAY DELAY A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO SOUTH AND EAST OF
PITTSBURGH...BUT OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WERE ON TARGET AND EXPECT
THAT GENERAL PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE AS
FORECASTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
930PM UPDATE...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING...WITH BETWEEN
1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR THE NORM ACROSS MUSKINGUM COUNTY.
WHILE RATES THIS IMPRESSIVE GIVE PAUSE...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWS SIGNS OF BRIGHT BANDING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MEANING A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SAID CORRIDOR OF BRIGHT BANDING RUNS UP TOWARD
THE WHEELING AREA AS OF 930 PM...AND OBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF THE
CORRIDOR SUPPORT A MIXED PHASE EVENT ALREADY ONGOING GIVEN THE
MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL/UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION AT
THE MORGANTOWN ASOS SITE. THAT SAID...OTHER THAN TO NOMINALLY
INCREASE SNOW TOTALS AROUND ZANESVILLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THE NEWLY
ARRIVED 00Z NAM SUPPORTS THE CURRENT PROJECTION OF
ONSET/CHANGEOVER/P-TYPE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. NO
FURTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. FRIES
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SPRAWLING WINTER STORM WILL TAKE
AIM ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE
MOMENT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY OCCLUDING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS. A VERY WELL
DEVELOPED WARM CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLICING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...WITH A RAPIDLY EVOLVING DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL COME INTO PLAY FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 OR SO HOURS.
SO LET`S BREAK IT DOWN...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST TONGUE IS SET TO DRIVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EVIDENT IN ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN THE 295-305K LAYER WITH MIXING RATIOS LIKELY TO TOP 6
G/KG IN THE LIFTED LAYER BY MORNING. AS SUCH...WHILE PROFILES MAY
INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...RAPID WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP A STRONG WARM TONGUE ALOFT AND TRANSITION
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN BASICALLY
EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES IN OHIO...AS WELL AS THE AREAS ALMOST AS FAR NORTH AS I-80
WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO DO THIS...SO THEY WILL SEE HEAVIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH...REALLY ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO
OF SNOW IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGEOVERS START TO OCCUR. NAM AND
GFS 18Z SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SUPPORT FROM THE RAP SUGGEST THAT WARM
ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 12Z RUNS
FAVORED. GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...A SURFACE LOW TRACK
RIGHT OVER THE CWA...AS WELL AS A LOW LEVEL JET TOPPING 70
KTS...AND LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
RIDGES...RAPID TRANSITIONS DO SEEM LIKELY. HOWEVER...GIVE THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AFTER THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW WILL BE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY IN THE INTRA-
RIDGE AREAS OF FAYETTE/WESTMORELAND...AS WELL AS IN GARRETT
COUNTY. IN THESE AREAS...A HALF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN CERTAINLY
IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...A
SECONDARY CORRIDOR OF HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIKELY ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SEEM POISED TO STRADDLE JUST BELOW FREEZING
LONGER...THIS WOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY ZANESVILLE TO ARMSTRONG
COUNTY.
BECAUSE OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE WARM
TONGUE EVOLVES QUICKLY AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS INTENSE ON
THE NOSE OF SAID FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE DRY SLOT
EVOLVING SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ABUNDANT
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IN
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/RAIN WOULD NOT BE ALL THAT SHOCKING. THAT
SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER EARLY ON...THAT
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY HIGH FOR A PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. COMBINING THAT WITH A CURRENTLY FROZEN AND/OR SNOW
COVERED GROUND OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THE RATIO OF QPF
THAT TRANSLATES INTO ICE ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL...EVEN WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITATION RATES. FARTHER
NORTH...WITH A COLDER COLUMN...THIS FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE
FAVORED WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION.
A SECONDARY CONSEQUENCE OF THE RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE DRY SLOT
INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RAPID DRYING OF THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CUT OFF RAPID SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND LIKELY END PRECIPITATION
AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE IMMEDIATELY
POST FRONTAL DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
BEHIND. HOWEVER...BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD
ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN
INCREASE...SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SEEM LIKELY TO RETURN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS FOR THE
MOMENT...HOWEVER ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS WERE GENERALLY TRENDED
MORE HEAVILY TOWARD ICE THAN SNOW FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT THE VERY
FARTHEST NORTH COUNTIES IN THE AREA. IN PARTICULAR...GARRETT
COUNTY COULD BE VERY HARD HIT BY FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/MV/MD AS NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES. ALTHOUGH
LAKE ERIE WILL BE MOSTLY FROZEN...BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
TO SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AS SUBSIDENCE TAKE PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARD LATER THURSDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LACK OF CONTINUITY DECREED USE OF AN ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM PD...HENCE THE PRUDENCE OF TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE. POPS WERE
THUS LTD TO THE CHC CATEGORY...BUT GENLY TRENDED UPWARD FOR EARLY
NXT WEEK GIVEN INDICATIONS OF TROUGH PASSAGE. TEMPS WERE TRENDED
COLDER FOR THE SAME PD...ALTHOUGH THE COLDER ECMWF MOS WAS
REFERENCED AS OPPOSED TO THE NR ZERO WPC NMBRS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WL CONT TO SPREAD IFR...LIFR WITH
SN...FZRA...PL...AND RA OVR UPR OH VALLEY TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MRNG. IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED BY AFTN...BUT MVFR STRATOCU ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVE AS COLD ADVCTN ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING LOW.
.OUTLOOK..../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A SERIES OF
WEEKEND DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ058-059-068-069.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ068-069.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ013-
014-020>023-029-073-074-076.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ029-031-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ031-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ001>003.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ002>004-012-021>023-
041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ004-023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1241 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
WITH A STEADY N WIND E OF BLDG HI PRES IN THE PLAINS DRAWING SOME LO
CLDS IN OFF LK SUP AND QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD ON THE NRN FLANK OF LO
PRES IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY IMPACTING INLAND LOCATIONS THRU MUCH OF
THE NGT...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE
THROUGH KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH THIS DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING NORTH WITH THE LEADING EDGE REACHING INTO
NE WI AND SCNTRL UPPER MI. THIS ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS IT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING FM HIGH CENTERED OVER ALBERTA HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES OVER THE NW AND ERN FCST AREA DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN WNW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY REACHED INTO THE
TEENS WITH A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH GENERALLY
A NNW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE ASSOC SFC LOW WITH SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. EVEN WITH LIMITED HEAT/MOISTURE
FLUX ACROSS THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE...SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING LES
WILL REMAIN FROM MUNISING EASTWARD WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
AROUND AN INCH. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ACCUMULATING LES AS NOTED ON
NAM AND WRF-ARW SNDGS WILL BE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INVERSION HGTS LOWERING TO 3-4 KFT.
THE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM SYSTEM ADVANCING FM SOUTH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST
WITH READINGS GENERALLY FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. OVER THE WEST...TEMPS
COULD STILL FALL AROUND -5F.
WINDS BACKING AGAIN TO THE WNW WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING
LIGHT LES INTO ERN ALGER AND NRN LUCE COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE ICE
COVERAGE WEST SHOULD LIMIT LES THERE TO NO MORE THAN FLURRIES BY WED
AFTERNOON GIVEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HGTS.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST
TO LOWER/MID TEENS SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
VERY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE U.P. WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME VERY WEAK TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THANKS TO AN EQUALLY
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. SYSTEM MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS ICE COVERED THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY REMAINS STATIONARY.
THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 35 KNOTS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FLOW
ALOFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE ABSENTS OF MOISTURE AND ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS EXPECTING LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ALSO DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FAR AS THE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS...THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE WRAPPED UP THAN THE
EC AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH AS IT SHIFTS THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EC/GEM ARE MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED AND A BIT SLOWER/
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NEVER REALLY DEVELOP A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
WEST TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT LES DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN U.P.
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ALOFT...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND E OF ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT
SAW/IWD THRU AT LEAST MID MRNG. SINCE THIS WIND DOES NOT PRESENT AS
FVRBL AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT CMX...THE NEAR SFC LYR IS RATHER DRY
PER UPSTREAM OBS/00Z INL RAOB...AND THERE IS EXTENSIVE ICE COVER
OVER LK SUP...VFR TO AT TIMES MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT CMX.
AS THE HI IN THE PLAINS DRIFTS SEWD THIS AFTN/EVNG...THE LLVL FLOW
WL BACK TOWARD THE W WITH TIME. THIS DOWNSLOPE WIND DIRECTION WL
CAUSE CONDITIONS AT SAW TO IMPROVE TO VFR. WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND AT
IWD AND CMX...HI END MVFR CIGS WL BE MORE LIKELY. EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LK SUP WL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HEAVIER SHSN/
PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CONTINUED ARCTIC COLD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WED
COINCIDING WITH A LOW MOVING THROUGH HUDSON BAY. AS A RESULT...A
BRIEF PERIODS OF WSW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WED
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND NCNTRL PORTION OF THE LAKE. WITH MUCH OF
THE LAKE ICE COVERED...THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CONCERN FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. A POCKET OF OPEN WATER NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND
MARAIS MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HIBBING HAS ALREADY REPORTED A
27 BELOW WINDCHILL AS OF 11PM...AND GRAND MARAIS HAS HAD A 28
BELOW. SO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR NOW. MUCH DEPENDS
ON THE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...AND THEY ARE MOVING VERY VERY SLOWLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FAIRLY WELL THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SOME
OVERCAST SKIES OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE STRATUS OVER CANADA IS
MAKING A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH...SO THE BORDERLANDS SHOULD WARM
BACK UP AGAIN HERE ONCE IT MOVES IN. WINDS HAVE REMAINED LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME NEAR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY VALUES ALREADY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO DROP WE SHOULD GET SOME WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 25
BELOW HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND UNTIL 10AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A MARGINAL
ADVISORY...BUT JUST ENOUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A MINOR UPDATE FOR
TEMPERATURE AND SKY TRENDS COMING SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AND NNW TO NW FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
RELATIVELY QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING CLOUD COVER...BUT I
LEANED ON THE GFS AND RAP13 WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUNNIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. I SUSPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND THE AMOUNT COULD AFFECT
THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ALSO...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SE FORECAST
AREA...AND THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING THESE CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD
COVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR PARTS OF
NE MINNESOTA...BUT SINCE I AM NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CLOUD
COVER...I HELD OFF ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT REEVALUATE.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
IN IRON COUNTY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MORE
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. I EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE
WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL BECOME WESTERLY TOMORROW...ENDING THE
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK COLD AND RELATIVELY QUIET.
AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NOT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE NORTHLAND.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. A FEW OTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT TIMES AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS
POINT.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES...THEY ALSO APPEAR LOW FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF ICE...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME OPEN
AREAS. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SHORE IF MORE OF
THE LAKE OPENS UP DUE TO STRONGER WINDS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY
REMAIN FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
CLOUDS REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WITH A LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...EXTENDING INTO THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE IS ALSO
PRODUCINE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE...WHICH ARE AFFECTING KHYR SO FAR. OTHER LOCATIONS
ARE CURRENTLY VFR. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EAST SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO KINL HERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AND ALSO TO KHIB BY 16Z AND KDLH BY 17Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT FASTER MOVEMENT AND THIS WILL BE
MONITORED. WE SHOULD ALSO GET SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME
BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO KBRD AND KHYR AS WELL. SOME CLEARING ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN MORE TO THE WEST AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -11 6 -14 7 / 0 0 10 10
INL -18 2 -19 5 / 0 0 10 20
BRD -12 5 -17 6 / 0 0 0 0
HYR -9 8 -14 6 / 0 0 0 0
ASX -5 9 -10 8 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-035-037.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1010 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FAIRLY WELL THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SOME
OVERCAST SKIES OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE STRATUS OVER CANADA IS
MAKING A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH...SO THE BORDERLANDS SHOULD WARM
BACK UP AGAIN HERE ONCE IT MOVES IN. WINDS HAVE REMAINED LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME NEAR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY VALUES ALREADY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO DROP WE SHOULD GET SOME WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 25
BELOW HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND UNTIL 10AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A MARGINAL
ADVISORY...BUT JUST ENOUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A MINOR UPDATE FOR
TEMPERATURE AND SKY TRENDS COMING SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AND NNW TO NW FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
RELATIVELY QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING CLOUD COVER...BUT I
LEANED ON THE GFS AND RAP13 WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUNNIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. I SUSPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND THE AMOUNT COULD AFFECT
THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
ALSO...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SE FORECAST
AREA...AND THE GFS AND HRRR ARE SUGGESTING THESE CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD
COVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR PARTS OF
NE MINNESOTA...BUT SINCE I AM NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CLOUD
COVER...I HELD OFF ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT REEVALUATE.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
IN IRON COUNTY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MORE
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. I EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE
WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL BECOME WESTERLY TOMORROW...ENDING THE
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK COLD AND RELATIVELY QUIET.
AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NOT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE NORTHLAND.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. A FEW OTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT TIMES AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS
POINT.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES...THEY ALSO APPEAR LOW FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF ICE...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME OPEN
AREAS. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SHORE IF MORE OF
THE LAKE OPENS UP DUE TO STRONGER WINDS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY
REMAIN FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AFFECTING KINL...KHIB AND KDLH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOST OF
THE NIGHT. FACTORS FOR EITHER DECREASING OR INCREASING CLOUDS TOO
WEAK TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING LIKELY...THOUGH THERE ARE HOLES
IN THE CLOUD COVER AND THESE SHOULD LINGER. SO...HAVE MADE MAINLY
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY...BUT AT LEAST VFR. NEW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN THE SAME GENERAL
HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR HEIGHT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -11 6 -14 7 / 0 0 10 10
INL -18 2 -19 5 / 0 0 10 20
BRD -12 5 -17 6 / 0 0 0 0
HYR -9 8 -14 6 / 0 0 0 0
ASX -5 9 -10 8 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-035-037.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1113 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 915 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
Updated/raised pops for the overnight hours as upper level vort
slides east through forecast area. Best chances of snow will be
mainly along and north of Missouri River, exiting region after
12z. South of Missouri River will still see some light snow with
patchy freezing drizzle possible, with just a light glazing
expected in this area. As for additional snowfall, another one to
three inches is possible north of Missouri River with highest storm
totals from central MO northeast into west central IL. Lesser
amounts to the south.
Byrd
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
No changes will be made to going warnings/advisories with some
minor changes to snowfall amounts, mainly to account for incoming
reports. The snow spread into the eastern counties this afternoon
with some minor accumulations reported in Fayette county. Some
sleet was reported mixing in with the snow down in Fredericktown
around 1230 pm and more recently in Maeystown in Monroe county
Illinois. Still expect this mix to continue over southeast
Missouri into south central Illinois into mid evening based on
most recent RAP soundings.
To the north and west, moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues
across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois
where visibilities at the observation sites remain in the 1/4 to 1/2
mile range. Latest runs of the HRRR and RAP show that the
deformation zone will continue to produce accumulating snow over the
warning area of into late tonight before the deformation zone lifts
out of the area. Just to the south, snow has been falling since
late morning over parts of southeast and east central Missouri,
though pockets of dry air in the lower atmosphere has hampered it`s
eastward progress. Now dry air is moving in from the southwest
which will begin to cut down on snowfall rates. Have left freezing
drizzle in overnight over the southern half of the CWA overnight has
deep ascent moves out leaving some low level ascent in deep
moisture. Still do not expected there to be enough ice accretion to
include any mention at this point. Also left area of blowing and
drifting snow in the warning area late tonight where the winds will
pick of late tonight. System will lift out of the area early on
Wednesday. Have just a chance of snow over northeastern half of the
CWA on Wednesday morning.
Went on the cooler side of guidance tonight and tomorrow for
temperatures where the deeper snow cover will be.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
The upper flow will deamplify in the wake of the current storm
system with a more progressive flow featuring broad troffing
dominating through at least the end of the week. This will assist
the expansive 1040+ mb Arctic high building into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. The biggest issue during this time
frame is the temperatures. There is quite a range in the MOS with
much of the model 2m temperatures siding with the colder MAV.
Given the amount of fresh snow cover that will reside across the
CWA have sided towards the colder numbers even though ideal
radiational cooling conditions (i.e. light winds) won`t exist in
this time frame. The low ambient air temperatures and even modest
wind will result in dangerous bitterly cold wind chills of -15 to
-25 late Wednesday night-Thursday morning generally along and
north of I-70. Collaboration with surrounding offices resulted in
holding off on wind chill headlines, but these will ultimately be
needed and likely issued once the current storm exits. We will
continue to hammer the message of this bitter cold in the
remainder of our produce suite.
The Arctic high will shift quickly eastward on Thursday night-Friday
night due to the progressive flow. There will also be a good deal of
cloudiness within this flow that will create some havoc with
temperatures and lead to lower confidence in the mins on Thursday
night/Friday morning. We have been carrying some low pops on Thursday
night and I have kept some low/slight chance pops in the forecast
generally along and south of I-70. The NAM, local WRF, and SREF all
show some light QPF associated with a weak impulse in the flow aloft
and attendant weak WAA/lift, while the NAMX and other models dry up
any precipitation as it attempts to spread east from the
southern/central Plains.
The forecast for this weekend is still highly questionable with a
good deal of uncertainty. Model continuity and agreement has been
quite poor and the general pattern the models were showing yesterday
with an amplifying upper trof/low moving through the
southern/central Plains into the lower/mid MS valley region is no
longer present. The general solution today is less amplified overall
and shifted north, with any advertised upper low now over Iowa on
Saturday night. Our forecast represents a multi-model blend with
greater weighting towards the ECMWF and CMC GEM. This would suggest
potential for 2 waves of snow - the first would be a chance of snow
area-wide Friday night due to a lead progressive wave and attendant
WAA, and then another chance Saturday/Saturday night more focused
across the northern CWA associated with the more northern upper
trof/low. Yet another shortwave within the progressive flow could
bring a chance of snow late Monday night-Tuesday. One thing that we
have high confidence in for the extended forecast is that the cold
weather will persist through early next week with a continuation of
below average temperatures.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014
Upper level disturbance now rotating across Kansas City will move
east overnight providing additional light snow and freezing
drizzle to the area, especially along and north of I-70. IFR
conditions will continue. North wind will become northwest by
morning with snow ending, ceiling lifting to 1500 ft and winds
becoming gusty.
Specifics for KSTL:
IFR conditions to continue overnight with light snow and freezing
drizzle. Snow should end by 15Z with ceiling lifting and winds
gusting out of the northwets.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City
MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-
Fayette IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING -SN ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WITH THE BACK EDGE
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF KCDR TO KHYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING TIMING/PLACEMENT RATHER WELL...AND PUSHES THE -SN OUT
OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME...WIND CHILL INDICES
HAVE PLUMMETED TO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE. EXPECT VALUES TO REMAIN AS
SUCH THRU MID MORNING UNTIL WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND CHILL ADV UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF
TEMP RECOVERY AND WILL ON THE WHOLE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ALSO GOOD
AGREEMENT ADDITIONAL SN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS PART OF NEXT WEEK. FRI AFTN...GFS/CMC/ECM ALL
POINT TO SN DEVELOPING IN KS ASSOC WITH MID LYR FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...THEN EXPANDING NWD INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. COLD
AND DRY THEN UNTIL MONDAY WHEN NEXT SN CHANCE COMES. GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 700-500MB QG FORCING..THIS WOULD PLACE THE SW/SRN CWA
AT HIGHEST RISK FOR SN ACCUM THRU AT LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE WITH STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS EVENING AND THAT TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE AS THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF. SOME CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO THE
KOFK AREA...BUT THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY. CLOUDS BELOW 3000 FEET
MAY SCATTER OUT AT KLNK AND KOMA LATE TONIGHT. BUT...THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN A LITTLE SLOWER
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE IN THE 2000 TO
3000 FOOT LAYER PREVAILING BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 21Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
241 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING -SN ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WITH THE BACK EDGE
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF KCDR TO KHYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING TIMING/PLACEMENT RATHER WELL...AND PUSHES THE -SN OUT
OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME...WIND CHILL INDICES
HAVE PLUMMETED TO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE. EXPECT VALUES TO REMAIN AS
SUCH THRU MID MORNING UNTIL WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND CHILL ADV UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF
TEMP RECOVERY AND WILL ON THE WHOLE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ALSO GOOD
AGREEMENT ADDITIONAL SN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS PART OF NEXT WEEK. FRI AFTN...GFS/CMC/ECM ALL
POINT TO SN DEVELOPING IN KS ASSOC WITH MID LYR FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...THEN EXPANDING NWD INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. COLD
AND DRY THEN UNTIL MONDAY WHEN NEXT SN CHANCE COMES. GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 700-500MB QG FORCING..THIS WOULD PLACE THE SW/SRN CWA
AT HIGHEST RISK FOR SN ACCUM THRU AT LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE WITH STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS EVENING AND THAT TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE AS THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF. SOME CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO THE
KOFK AREA...BUT THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY. CLOUDS BELOW 3000 FEET
MAY SCATTER OUT AT KLNK AND KOMA LATE TONIGHT. BUT...THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN A LITTLE SLOWER
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE IN THE 2000 TO
3000 FOOT LAYER PREVAILING BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 21Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065-066-078-088-089.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND DURATION OF STORM IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL
CRNT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8
INCHES CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING STRONG
LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT...WHICH
SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE NOTICED AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO
COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH 1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA
LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED
RH/LIFT FROM S/W ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN
BAND. THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF
PRECIP. THIS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z
THIS MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H CIRCULATION.
THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN
TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND
EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM
WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT
IN STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50
TO 0.75" CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY
NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW WL
QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES DEVELOPING
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW PACK WL
RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER VALLEYS.
WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR THURS
INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT WITH A
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 10/11Z AT ALL TAF SITES...THEN SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE DOWN TO
LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR/IFR SHOULD START AROUND 15/16Z TODAY.
EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 1SM AFTER 15Z WITH
CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST
AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL
SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1202 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS
AND ADJUST TIMING OF PRECIP ARRIVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM
AIR CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE MS VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LATEST TRENDS HAVE THIS LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND NOSE OF LLVL JET WL MAINLY IMPACT OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA THRU THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHTER SNOW
FURTHER NORTH ACRS NNY INTO N VT. EXPECT SNOW TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. LATEST RAP13
AND HRRR HAVE SNOW ARRIVING BTWN 07-09Z NNY AND BTWN 08Z-11Z
CPV/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT...AND INTO NORTHERN VT BY 12Z. EXPECTING
A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING RUSH DEPENDING UPON
LOCATION...WHICH IS COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST. OTHERWISE...LOWS
HAVE BEEN REACHED WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND OR NEAR STEADY TEMPS
EXPECTED AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ARRIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...A SOLID MODERATE SNOWFALL EVENT (BY
VERMONT/NRN NY STANDARDS THAT IS) THEN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST NEAR 40N LATITUDE. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVER GIVEN FAIRLY FAST CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. NONETHELESS...AMPLE MOISTURE...LIFT AND
A DEEPER THAN NORMAL SNOW GROWTH REGION ALL FAVOR A SOLID 12-16
HOUR EVENT WITH A 4-8 HOUR CORE OF STEADIER/HEAVIER SNOW FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST QG FORCING AND LOW
TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FIELDS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS (6-12 INCHES OR SO)
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FURTHER NORTH STILL A SOLID EVENT BUT TOTALS
WILL BE LESS THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTL
BORDER. ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY GIVEN LATEST QPF TRENDS IN THE MODELS...BUT
I DID OPT TO OMIT THE HEAVIER NAM/WRF QPF WHICH APPEARS SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND LACK OF CONCERTED CLOSED CENTER
AT 700 MB. CURRENT THINKING OFFERS A GENERAL 6-12 INCHES
CENTRAL/SOUTH...4-8 INCHES IN A STRIPE JUST NORTH OF THERE
INCLUDING THE KSLK/KBTV/KMVL/K1V4 REGION...AND A 2-5/3-6 INCH
ADVSY LEVEL EVENT FOR THE ST LAWRENCE AND FAR NRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. OF COURSE...SOME SUBTLE VARIABILITY IS ALWAYS INHERENT
IN PREDICTING EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THESE ARE MY BEST
ESTIMATES GIVEN THE CURRENT INFORMATION.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY EAST INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN ENDING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS SKIES GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS
LATE. SOME LIGHT ADDL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT OVERALL
IDEA WILL BE FOR A DRYING TREND AS LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY
EAST.
THEN A FAIRLY NICE AND QUIET MID-WINTER DAY ON TAP FOR OUR AREA
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION BUILDS GRADUALLY EASTWARD. STILL COULD SEE SOME
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE DAY...ESP NRN
NY/NRN MTNS WHERE THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER H5 TROUGH SAGGING
SOUTH FROM SRN CANADA MAY SPARK A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN HERE
AND THERE BY AFTERNOON. BEST SHOT OF SHSN APPEARS TO OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS HOWEVER AS MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
INTERACTS WITH MARGINALLY WARM +2C WATERS. HIGHS SEASONABLY COLD
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S FOR MOST SPOTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 10/11Z AT ALL TAF SITES...THEN SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE DOWN TO
LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR/IFR SHOULD START AROUND 15/16Z TODAY.
EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 1SM AFTER 15Z WITH
CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST
AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL
SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1202 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS
AND ADJUST TIMING OF PRECIP ARRIVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM
AIR CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE MS VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LATEST TRENDS HAVE THIS LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND NOSE OF LLVL JET WL MAINLY IMPACT OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA THRU THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHTER SNOW
FURTHER NORTH ACRS NNY INTO N VT. EXPECT SNOW TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. LATEST RAP13
AND HRRR HAVE SNOW ARRIVING BTWN 07-09Z NNY AND BTWN 08Z-11Z
CPV/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT...AND INTO NORTHERN VT BY 12Z. EXPECTING
A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING RUSH DEPENDING UPON
LOCATION...WHICH IS COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST. OTHERWISE...LOWS
HAVE BEEN REACHED WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND OR NEAR STEADY TEMPS
EXPECTED AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ARRIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...A SOLID MODERATE SNOWFALL EVENT (BY
VERMONT/NRN NY STANDARDS THAT IS) THEN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST NEAR 40N LATITUDE. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVER GIVEN FAIRLY FAST CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. NONETHELESS...AMPLE MOISTURE...LIFT AND
A DEEPER THAN NORMAL SNOW GROWTH REGION ALL FAVOR A SOLID 12-16
HOUR EVENT WITH A 4-8 HOUR CORE OF STEADIER/HEAVIER SNOW FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST QG FORCING AND LOW
TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FIELDS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS IS WHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS (6-12 INCHES OR SO)
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FURTHER NORTH STILL A SOLID EVENT BUT TOTALS
WILL BE LESS THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTL
BORDER. ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY GIVEN LATEST QPF TRENDS IN THE MODELS...BUT
I DID OPT TO OMIT THE HEAVIER NAM/WRF QPF WHICH APPEARS SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND LACK OF CONCERTED CLOSED CENTER
AT 700 MB. CURRENT THINKING OFFERS A GENERAL 6-12 INCHES
CENTRAL/SOUTH...4-8 INCHES IN A STRIPE JUST NORTH OF THERE
INCLUDING THE KSLK/KBTV/KMVL/K1V4 REGION...AND A 2-5/3-6 INCH
ADVSY LEVEL EVENT FOR THE ST LAWRENCE AND FAR NRN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. OF COURSE...SOME SUBTLE VARIABILITY IS ALWAYS INHERENT
IN PREDICTING EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THESE ARE MY BEST
ESTIMATES GIVEN THE CURRENT INFORMATION.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY EAST INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN ENDING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS SKIES GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS
LATE. SOME LIGHT ADDL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT OVERALL
IDEA WILL BE FOR A DRYING TREND AS LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY
EAST.
THEN A FAIRLY NICE AND QUIET MID-WINTER DAY ON TAP FOR OUR AREA
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION BUILDS GRADUALLY EASTWARD. STILL COULD SEE SOME
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE DAY...ESP NRN
NY/NRN MTNS WHERE THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER H5 TROUGH SAGGING
SOUTH FROM SRN CANADA MAY SPARK A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN HERE
AND THERE BY AFTERNOON. BEST SHOT OF SHSN APPEARS TO OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS HOWEVER AS MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
INTERACTS WITH MARGINALLY WARM +2C WATERS. HIGHS SEASONABLY COLD
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S FOR MOST SPOTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL CONT TO FEATURE
FAST CONFLUENT FLW ACRS THE CONUS WITH A STRONG S/W TROF MOVING
FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WL FEATURE 1030MB
SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS IN THE FAST FLW ALOFT ALONG
WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LVL RH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MTN FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED. IF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP...WITH FRESH
SNOW PACK...A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT...A WIDE RANGE IN LOWS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM -10F COLDEST VALLEYS TO +15F WARMEST AREAS
FOR LOWS AND MAINLY TEENS TO L/M 20S FOR HIGHS. FOR LOWS WL USE
SUPERBLEND WHICH IS A NICE COMPROMISE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORT ROUNDING
TROF BASE. GFS SHOWS GOOD PHASING BTWN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO CAPTURE SFC LOW PRES AND KEEPS
SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR
OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLES
SHOWS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM GETTING SHEARED OUT IN THE
FAST FLW ALOFT...RESULTING IN WEAKER SFC LOW PRES PASSING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS SOLUTION...WHICH IS
FAVORED BY WPC WOULD KEEP BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR REGION...WITH JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
5H TROF. WL LEAN TWD THIS SCENARIO ATTM...GIVEN TRENDS THIS
WINTER AND MENTION CHC POPS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. MODELS SHOULD
START CAPTURING SYSTEM BETTER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN CONUS AND IS BETTER SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR
DATA ACRS THE CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 10/11Z AT ALL TAF SITES...THEN SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE DOWN TO
LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR/IFR SHOULD START AROUND 15/16Z TODAY.
EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 1SM AFTER 15Z WITH
CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST
AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL
SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS/NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1154 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTEND A RIDGE EAST OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP TYPE AND
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE 00Z/05 NAM IS FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN THE 12Z RUN AND TAKES THE SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...TO JUST SOUTH OF PIT BY 15Z. THE RUC IS
HOLDING ONTO A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAT PULLS MORE WARM
AIR NORTH WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS YNG. REGIONAL RADARS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPANDING FROM CENTRAL OHIO NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES DEVELOP SO NUDGED
ACCUMULATIONS BACK UP IN THIS AREA. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS COULD ACTUALLY END UP IN THE SOUTHEAST IF
THE MIX DOES NOT OCCUR TOWARDS DAWN. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS TOWARDS
TOLEDO. NORTHERN AREA STILL EXPECTED TO SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LINGERS WITH FAVORABLE MID-
LEVEL DEFORMATION AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS SQUEAK OUT UP TO 4
INCHES IN THE SNOWBELT WHICH WILL PUSH ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE
FORECAST RANGE. THERE WILL BE MORE BREAKS IN THE SNOW DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHEN SNOW DIMINISHES.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...HERE IT COMES. THE NOW NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP STEAM AT THIS TIME AND MAKE A BEE
LINE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK
HAS BEEN WAVERING BACK AND FORTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH A FEW MILES
WITH SOME WHAT OF A GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE DIFFERENCE NOW IS HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ENTRAINMENT WILL TAKE PLACE AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
SNOW TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM APPROXIMATELY
EASTERN MARION COUNTY TO JUST SOUTH OF MANSFIELD INCLUDING
AKRON...CANTON...AND YOUNGSTOWN. THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY REDUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER...WE ALL AGREE THAT AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES DURING
THE NIGHT...WE WILL SEE SNOWFALL RATES OF BETWEEN 1 INCH AND ONE AND
ONE HALF INCH AN HOUR IN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND.
FURTHER NORTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED WE WILL LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW AND
THIS INCLUDES THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREA OVER TO THE CLEVELAND
AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THESE AREAS COULD SEE MORE SNOW
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING IF THE NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN LAKE
ERIE IS ENHANCED BY MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE LAKE. THERE ARE SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT CRACKS IN THE ICE THAT SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT FOR SOME
REVERSE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO
UP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHWEST AND
LAKE SHORE AND WARM TO AROUND 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVER NIGHT AS THEY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW THAT WILL CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING AND AT THIS TIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS IS WHEN THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THIS SHOULD ABSORB THE OHIO
VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MID DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SO FAR...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY
FLOW EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY SET UP A LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE
FETCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ALSO SHIFT THE FLOW TO MORE
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AS WARMER AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY MORNING WE COULD
SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN IN
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. ONCE LOW MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT LOWS AGAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A CHANCE OF SNOW ALREADY IN FOR SATURDAY.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHEN AND WHERE A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE EAST COAST. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT FOR SOME AREAS OF
SNOW. SO...WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW PRECIP CHANCES ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AS THE LOW TO
THE EAST SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
BE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA. SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE NW FLOW BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WIN OUT
ON TUESDAY AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TO THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOWS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AS IT GETS OVER TAKEN
BY THE DRY SLOT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPWARD
MOTION IS TOTALLY EAST. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ALOFT THAT SOME SLEET OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE AT KCAK AND KYNG WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EAST NORTHEAST
WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND SOME BLOWING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY. NON VFR
REDEVELOPING AGAIN ON SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
NE FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THEN BECOME N AND EVENTUALLY NW AS
THIS HAPPENS. A RIDGE WILL SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR A
COUPLE DAYS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE THE
FLOW TO RETURN TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS
THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KEC/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1044 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FG HAS DVLPD ACROSS THE VCT TAF
SITE AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO ALI AND CRP OVERNIGHT. ONE
FACTOR THAT MAY HINDER FOG DVLPMNT ACROSS ALI AND CRP IS THE
CIRRUS MOVG ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE ALSO IS NOT GOING AS LOW
FOR ALI AND CRP. THEREFORE DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW WITH THE VSBY
OR CIG FOR CRP...BUT KEPT THE LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALI BASED ON
BEING RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE CIRRUS DECK. CONDITIONS COULD
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FOR CRP AS WELL IF THE CIRRUS EXITS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO S TX WED MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOR VCT AROUND 11Z AND FOR CRP AND
ALI BY 13Z OR SO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OVER EASTERN LAND AREAS OF CWA. FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT...MAINLY DEALING WITH DEWPOINTS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
THE SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS FORECAST TO ADVECT THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY HAVE GENERALLY STAYED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP DEWPOINTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BY ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HRRR AND RUC BOTH SUGGEST THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD SOMEWHAT STEADY IN THIS REGION BEFORE THE
FRONT. DUE TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOR
CLEAR SKIES...HAVE EXPANDED THE FORECAST EXTENT OF FOG AND DENSE
FOG A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS LAGGING BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT BY A FEW HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 43 60 38 42 39 / 0 0 20 30 30
VICTORIA 39 56 33 41 35 / 0 0 10 30 20
LAREDO 44 66 38 43 36 / 0 0 20 20 10
ALICE 42 62 36 41 37 / 0 0 20 30 30
ROCKPORT 45 57 40 43 39 / 0 0 20 30 30
COTULLA 39 59 35 42 33 / 0 0 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 42 62 38 42 38 / 0 0 20 30 30
NAVY CORPUS 47 58 42 44 41 / 0 0 20 30 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1050 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. SLOWED/REMOVED CHANCES OF
SNOW FOR TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. LIGHT SNOW NOW JUST GETTING
INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI. DRY AIR LIMITING NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. WENT
MORE WITH MESO MODELS TONIGHT WHICH KEEP AREA DRY. WINDS ALONG
LAKE SHORE STILL A BIT OFFSHORE...WITH MODELS SHOWING A BIT TOO
MUCH SHEAR IN LOW LEVELS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LOWER CEILINGS SEEN ALONG
LAKE MI THOUGH. LAKE CLOUDS ALSO GETTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI.
THIS WILL LIMIT/SLOW TEMP FALL THUS MADE FEW ADJUSTMENT THERE ALSO.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
COLD BUT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
THE LARGE POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE NERN PAC THAT HAS
BEEN ANCHORING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM FOR THE PAST 6-8
WEEKS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WERE SPLITTING ARND THE FEATURE...THEN MERGING BACK
TOGETHER OVER NOAM. THE TREND DURING THE FCST PERIOD WL BE FOR
THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW OVER NOAM TO GRADUALLY LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE AND
BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS THE MEAN TROF POSN SHIFTS INTO ERN
NOAM.
THIS PATTERN WL SUPPORT A FEW LGT PCPN EVENTS AT MOST...SO AMNTS
WL END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL AS
COLD CANADIAN AIR DOMINATES THE REGION. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME RECOVERY OF TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
DON/T REALLY SEE ANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABV
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION PRECIP IS PUSHING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE CYCLONE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT HAS
SLOWED ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT RUNS INTO DRY ARCTIC AIR. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE RESUMED THEIR NORTHWARD PUSH AND ARE NOW MOVING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED
OUT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
A WEAK ARCTIC FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH IT NORTHEAST OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE COMMA HEAD WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO THE CLOUD COVER SINCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING NORTH WINDS
AND A STRONG INVERSION SHOULD CAUSE LAKE CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO
MOVE WELL INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE EC/GFS/GEM ALL BRING LIGHT
QPF INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...MOST MESO MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH...SUGGESTING
INCREASING DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY. AM THINKING
THIS IS THE WAY TO GO SINCE MESO MODELS USUALLY DO A BETTER JOB
WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE DRY AIR. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE
MANITOWOC COUNTY WHERE NE FLOW MAY LEAD TO LAKE SNOW BANDS IMPACTING
THAT COUNTY. BUT THINK ICE COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW BANDS. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE...BUT AGAIN THINK ACCUMS WILL BE UNDER A HALF
INCH.
WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL BE IMPACTING THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
OF E-C WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD END BY
MID-MORNING AS WINDS TURN TOO NORTHERLY. THEN COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUNSHINE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETS STRETCHED OUT
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
SOME CONCERN THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WED NGT COULD SUPPORT
FLURRIES. BUT GIVEN THE DRY LAYER ARND 850 MB ON MOST OF THE
MODELS...WL HOLD OFF ADDING THOSE FOR NOW. THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN
WL BE DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS THREW A NEW WRINKLE INTO THE
MIX...WITH A MORE NLY TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV AS IT
PARTIALLY PHASES WITH THE NRN STREAM. AS A RESULT... THE GFS
GENERATED CONSIDERABLE PCPN ACRS THE AREA. BUT THAT DOES NOT HAVE
SUPPORT FM THE OTHER MODELS OR SEEM FIT WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...SO WL DISREGARD AS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW.
TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL...PROBABLY AVERAGING 10-18 F DEG BLO
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. ANY MORNINGS WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS
WILL GET QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS COULD ALSO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. BUT SUSPECT MOST PEOPLE PROBABLY WON/T PERCEIVE
IT AS BEING EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AFTER SOME OF THE WX WE HAD BACK IN
JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST CROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. LOOK
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT SHARP CUT-
OFF TO SNOW WITH MAIN AREA FALLING SOUTH OF TAF SITES AS SNOW BAND
WILL BE FIGHTING VERY DRY AIR ARCTIC AIR. HAVE BACKED OFF FURTHER
ON HOW FAR NORTH SNOW WILL MOVE AS STILL ONLY IN FAR SOUTHERN WI.
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING IN THE MORNING ON WED WITH COLD AIR SURGING
IN LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MI BRINGING SOME LOW
CIGS INTO LAKESHORE AND SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY ATTM. ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY FLURRIES THESE AREAS DUE TO
ICE ON LAKE. LOW CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE SNUCK IN TO NORTH
CENTRAL WI. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS INTO RHI FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........TE
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
605 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HEAVY SNOW AS WELL AS A TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR
TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** VERY HEAVY SNOW WITH 1 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS MORNING COMMUTE ***
605 AM UPDATE...
A CLASSIC FRONT END THUMP OF VERY HEAVY SNOW IS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WAS
RESULTING IN TREMENDOUS OMEGA IN THE SNOWGROWTH REGION...WITH 1 TO 3
INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. ROADWAYS ARE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
MESSY AND DANGEROUS MORNING RUSH HOUR. HAVE EVEN HEARD OF SOME ISOLATED
REPORTS OF THUNDER.
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAST THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
CHANGE PLACES OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. DUAL POL RADAR
INDICATING THAT TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WAS MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTH ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST
THROUGH 7 AM. THIS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEAST MA BETWEEN 8 AND 11 AM. GIVEN THAT ITS SNOWING SO
HARD...A SMALL TIMING ERROR IN THERMAL PROFILES WILL MAKE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN ACCUMULATIONS. WE STILL LIKE OUR CURRENT
SNOWFALL FORECAST WITH A GENERAL 5 TO 9 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
PIKE...EXCEPT LESS ON CAPE/ISLANDS. EXPECTING 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH
PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO THE NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE
FORM OF SNOW NORTH OF THE PIKE. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PIKE...TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN. A TENTH TO UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CT/WESTERN RI LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
ENOUGH TO CHANGE FAR SOUTHEAST MA/SOUTHERN RI TO ALL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW/MIXED PRECIP WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH OPEN 700 MB WAVE TO MOVE FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER TODAY. ONGOING SNOW
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT 12Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK FRONT END THUMP OF SNOW. WITH THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH EXCELLENT
SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECT SNOW FALL RATES BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR. THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND REDUCE VSBYS
AT OR BELOW A HALF OF A MILE.
AS THE DAY PROGRESS...APPEARS THAT A GOOD 800 MB WARM NOSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 13-15Z. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST OF THE
MODELS PUSHING A 3C WARM NOSE WITHIN THE THERMAL LAYER...WHERE AS
THE GFS IS ONLY A 1.5C WARM NOSE. REGARDLESS THERE IS A WARM NOSE
INTRUDING INTO THE LAYER WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL ALTER SNOWFALL TOTALS AND TRY TO SHOW THAT WITHIN THE
FORECAST. BEST LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
MA/RI/CT BORDER WHERE ICE ACCRETION MAY REACH BETWEEN AN TRACE
AND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS CENTRAL CT AND SOUTHERN RI. BELIEVE SLEET
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCE JUST SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE THE WARM
NOSE WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCE AND HYDROMETEORS WILL STRUGGLE TO
MELT FULLY. NORTH OF THE PIKE...WILL BE ALL SNOW.
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE WARM AIR WILL INCREASE SURFACE TEMPS
ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO JUST RAIN. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE NORTH OF THE PIKE. THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REALLY DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE BY 18Z BUT FEEL THAT THIS MAY BE TO QUICKLY ESP
LOOKING AT THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM. ONE THING TO NOTE AS PREV
FORECASTER DID IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
AT 700 MB...A DRY SLOT. THIS MAY SHUT DOWN THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW
SOUTH OF THE MA/CT/RI BORDER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER
BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...AND DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS IT COULD BE MORE OF A
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO.
BECAUSE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS SNOW STORMS EXPECT A 10:1
SNOW RATIO WITH THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL A GOOD AMOUNT
OF VARIABLES...BELIEVE THAT A LARGE SWATH OF 8-12 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF PIKE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEARING 14 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE MA/CT/RI BORDER BELIEVE 5-9 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING THIS MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET EVENT. CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND
ISLANDS EXPECT 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH PERHAPS A TRACE TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE. KEPT CURRENT HEADLINES AS THIS TIME FOR MORE OF
AN THREAT AND IMPACT FACTOR ESP AS THE HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL RIGHT
AT THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE ICE
ACCRETION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TODAY WILL EJECT
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. CAA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION QUICKLY
AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY DUE TO THE DEPARTING LOW. A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR SOME
SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY...BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE...ESP NORTH OF
THE PIKE. SOUTH OF THE PIKE APPEARS THAT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE SO MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY SET UP IS POSSIBLE.
THIS MAY WARRANT AN EXTENSION IN THE ADVISORY...BUT BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY HELD OFF FOR NOW.
MODELS SEEM TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
MOISTURE AND SNOW WITHIN SAID REGION OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS ANOTHER HALF
INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY WEAK
OCEAN EFFECTS. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE TO 850MB TEMP SPREAD IS NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE...A DIFFERENCE OF 10C.
OVERALL ANTICIPATE THE STORM TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN BY THE EVENING
HOURS AND LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST LINE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BELOW AVERAGE...NEARING SINGLE DIGITS HOWEVER UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A
TAD AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER KEEPING TEMPS FROM RADIATING
OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND COLD WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
* ANOTHER WINTER STORM "POSSIBLE" SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
DETAILS...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY WILL RESULT IN COLD WEATHER INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...THE TRUE
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THERE MAY BE JUST A FEW LEFT OVER OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST THU MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WE HAVE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THIS TIME. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DIVING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES ARE
STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CAUSING THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK INSIDE THE BENCHMARK. MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SHARP WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
IN SUMMARY...THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT WILL EVOLVE.
WHILE MOST MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...THEY HINT AT AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP. THIS MEANS
THAT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW PULLED WESTWARD...EVEN IF THE LOW
TRACKS WELL TOO OUR EAST. ALSO...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AT IT WILL BE LOADED WITH MOISTURE...GIVEN ITS SOUTHERN
ORIGINS. IF IT ENDS UP TRENDING FURTHER WEST THAN A LOT OF THE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS TONIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT WOULD OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME RANGE...WE STILL NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE.
TUESDAY...
DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE ON TIMING AND PTYPE.
TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS
MORNING. PTYPE TRANSITIONS TO WINTRY MIX BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z SOUTH
OF MA TURNPIKE...BUT REMAINS SNOW NORTH OF THE PIKE. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CT/WESTERN RI.
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND INTO SOUTHWEST NH MODERATE SNOW WILL
LINGER UNTIL TONIGHT. SNOW TOTALS OF 6-12 INCHES ACROSS MOST
AREAS...WITH LESS ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
TONIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING HOWEVER EXPECT LINGERING
IFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH 17Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH 14Z
THEN A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. PTYPE CHANGES BACK TO
LIGHT SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME
SNOW. TIMING/INTENSITY AND POSSIBLE DURATION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...
LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. SNOW CHANGES
TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN DURING THE MORNING...EXCEPT NORTH OF CAPE
COD WHERE PRECIP SHOULD STAY AT ALL SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE
ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TONIGHT...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LOW DEPARTS TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES. WINDS WILL BE NEAR 25KTS AND SEAS NEAR 7FT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LINGERING SCA SEAS FROM LEFT OVER SWELL EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY FLOW
AND COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SEAS AND NORTHEAST WINDS MAY INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT ONLY IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002>022-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ023.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-
012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ001>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN/FRANK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
819 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE AWAY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
NJ HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THUS ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD NO LONGER FREEZE
WHEN IT MAKES CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE...SO THE ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
WARNINGS IN EASTERN PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF NJ REMAIN INTACT
FOR NOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION AS THE DAY
WEARS ON AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WARNING REGIME AS NECESSARY.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
TO THE NORTH THE ADVANCE OF WARMER AIR IS HITTING THE WALL WITH
THE POCONOS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AND THE PTYPE BATTLE ZONE
NEAR I80. IN THE PHL NW SUBURBS, TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING CLOSER
TO FREEZING, COUPLED WITH INDIRECT SUN, ADDITIONAL ICING
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH. WE HAVE UPPED SNOW AMOUNTS
IN THE POCONOS. THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE LIFTING NE INTO NY STATE BY ABOUT 15Z.
THIS SHOULD BE THE BACK
GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND SHARPER AT 850MB
THAN THE WRF-NMMB. THEY BOTH LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AT 925MB. ALTHOUGH
IN REAL TIME WE COULD NOT FIND A MODEL THAT WAS HANDLING THE PTYPE
OR SURFACE TEMPS WELL. THE HRRR WAS COMING THE CLOSEST WITH THE
LATTER, BUT EVEN ITS SNOWFALL FORECASTS WHICH HAVE DONE WELL THIS
WINTER ARE TOO INFLATED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 78.
IN TERMS OF ICE ASOS BASED MEASUREMENTS ARE 0.2 TO 0.25 AT PTW AND
TTN RESPECTIVELY. POWER OUTAGES IN OUR CWA ARE OCCURRING FROM
MONMOUTH AND I95 CORRIDOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SERN PA AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE. ROUGH ESTIMATE BASED ON UTILITY WEB SITES ARE SEVERAL
THOUSAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER SUSQ VLY IS GETTING HIT HARDER
WITH OUTAGES PRESENTLY.
IN TERMS OF WINTRY PTYPE DETAILS, EVEN AT THIS LATE STAGE CONFIDENCE
IS LESS THAN USUAL. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG
THE I80 CORRIDOR AS THE SECONDARY TAKES OVER. MODELING IS STILL
SHOWING PLENTY OF SUBZERO TEMPS AT 925MB IN THE PHL NRN SUBURBS AND
RARITAN BASIN EVEN WITH THE SURGE OF 850MB TEMPS GOING FARTHER NORTH.
PCPN INTENSITY HAS CHANGED THE PCPN BACK TO SLEET AND EVEN SNOW, BUT
THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE LEAVING OUR CWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
SO OUR FAR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WE HAVE FALLEN BACK TO SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOKING FOR IT TO REMAIN MAINLY SNOW. ONCE WE GET INTO
THE I78 AND I80 CORRIDORS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SHAKIER AS IT COULD
VERY WELL BE MORE SLEET. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS LESS FREEZING RAIN
IN THAT AREA. WE LOWERED ICE AMOUNTS THERE. FOR THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TEMPERATURES ARE
TEETERING CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS HAS HELPED HOLD DOWN ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AS HAS THE HEAVY RAIN. PROBLEM IS THE HEAVIER PCPN IS
MOVING AWAY (LESS WARM RAIN TO RAISE TEMPS AND ALSO FALL QUICKER
BEFORE FREEZING ON EXPOSED SURFACES) AND THE SECONDARY HAS FORMED.
WINDS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH FROM SNOW COVERED AREAS BASED ON THE
TRENDS IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP A STATUS QUO. SO UNTIL WE GET
INDIRECT SUNLIGHT TO PUSH US OVER THE EDGE, NONE OF THE PRESENT
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED. WE KEPT ICE ACCUMULATION
VALUES BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES IN THE AXIS FROM THE PHL NW SUBURBS
INTO THE RARITAN BASIN.
THERE IS SOME DPVA TO STILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THIS EVENT SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES, COLDER AIR STARTS MOVING
BACK IN ALOFT AND ANY LATE IN THE DAY PCPN NORTH SHOULD BE SNOW.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF OUR CWA AND BEING
FORTUNATE TO HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, THE ICE SHOULD START
MELTING OFF OF EXPOSED SURFACES AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
EXACERBATE POWER OUTAGES. GFS MOS IS FAIRLY WARM AND LOOKS TOO WARM
GIVEN THE SNOW COVER AROUND THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
STILL ANOTHER SHOT OF PVA TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH THIS EVENING AND WE
KEPT THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS THIS EVENING, TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE AS THE SECONDARY, OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD THEN
BE A PROBLEM IF ICE REMAINS ON ANY TREES OR WIRES. MIN TEMPS WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND FREEZE ANY UNTREATED
STANDING WATER OR SLUSH.
THEN A QUIET, BUT COLD DAY FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
EASES EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK RELATIVELY DRY, SO SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO CLOUDY BASED ON THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING, EVEN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING TREACHEROUS WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM DID NOT
TOUCH THE LONGTERM GRIDS THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUSLY...
AS ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED...ANOTHER WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S GFS AND EC MODELS
DEPICT TWO SEPARATE BATCHES OF ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE W/CENTRAL
US TROUGH. SINCE THE BATCHES OF ENERGY ARE SEPARATE...THIS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING A BLOCKBUSTER STORM (AS SOME OF
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT). THE FIRST AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NGT BRINGING AN
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO (MOSTLY) THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER ACTIONS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, THEN A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH/WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD BE A RAINS/SNOW MIXTURE...ENDING AS SOME
STEADY SNOW EARLY MON MORNING. AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY HAVE MOSTLY
SNOW...WHILE MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE POPS/WX FOR
THE WEEKEND ON THE CONTINUITY `RAILS` AND KEEP HI CHC/LOW LIKELY
POPS FROM SAT NIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THE TWO SYSTEMS
DO AGAIN MERGE...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER STORM COULD STILL
EVOLVE...SO WE ARE STILL ADVISING PARTNERS TO BE PREPARED FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND. WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THE
AFTERNOON WILL CARRY ON AS BEFORE.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY AND LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS MORNING...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET, WITH SOME SNOW
MIXED IN AROUND RDG AND ABE, ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW THIS MORNING, IFR OR WORSE, AS WE SLOWLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING PUTTING AN END TO THE FREEZING RAIN AND GIVING US JUST
PLAIN RAIN. THE TWO QUESTIONABLE SPOTS WILL BE RDG AND ABE IN TERMS
OF THE PLAIN RAIN TRANSITION WHICH COULD TAKE UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF OF DELMARVA MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE CIGS AND VSBYS
AS THE RAIN SLOWLY TAPERS OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND WE TURN THE WINDS MORE TOWARDS THE
WEST. THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE LOW-LEVELS AND WE SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND GUST UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU LATE FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED.
SAT MORNING THRU SUN...MOSTLY MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS SNOW/RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN ZONES NOW THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, MOSTLY FOR SEAS AT THIS POINT, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCA GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ADDED
THE DELAWARE BAY FOR GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FUNNELING OF
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP ACHIEVE SCA GUSTS. UN-SURE OF HOW
LONG PAST TONIGHT THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA
AS THE COASTAL LOW PROVIDING THE HIGHER SEAS AND GUSTS QUICKLY MOVES
OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST.
OUTLOOK...
THU THRU SAT NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUN MORNING
THRU TUE MORNING...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. GALES
POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
055.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ060>062-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ009-
010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
015.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/IOVINO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
614 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE AWAY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE ESTF UPDATE WE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND PTYPES MAINLY
FROM AROUND I95 SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THIS AREA, WE ARE STILL HEARING
REPORTS OF NEW TREES COMING DOWN. POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT OUR
AREA HAVE CLIMBED TO 200,000 CUSTOMERS. SO WE WILL KEEP THE TWO
LOWER TIER ADVISORY AND WARNINGS GOING.
TO THE NORTH THE ADVANCE OF WARMER AIR IS HITTING THE WALL WITH
THE POCONOS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AND THE PTYPE BATTLE ZONE
NEAR I80. IN THE PHL NW SUBURBS, TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING CLOSER
TO FREEZING, COUPLED WITH INDIRECT SUN, ADDITIONAL ICING
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH. WE HAVE UPPED SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS. THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE LIFTING NE INTO NY STATE BY ABOUT
15Z. THIS SHOULD BE THE BACK
GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND SHARPER AT 850MB
THAN THE WRF-NMMB. THEY BOTH LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AT 925MB. ALTHOUGH
IN REAL TIME WE COULD NOT FIND A MODEL THAT WAS HANDLING THE PTYPE
OR SURFACE TEMPS WELL. THE HRRR WAS COMING THE CLOSEST WITH THE
LATTER, BUT EVEN ITS SNOWFALL FORECASTS WHICH HAVE DONE WELL THIS
WINTER ARE TOO INFLATED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 78.
IN TERMS OF ICE ASOS BASED MEASUREMENTS ARE 0.2 TO 0.25 AT PTW AND
TTN RESPECTIVELY. POWER OUTAGES IN OUR CWA ARE OCCURRING FROM
MONMOUTH AND I95 CORRIDOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SERN PA AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE. ROUGH ESTIMATE BASED ON UTILITY WEB SITES ARE SEVERAL
THOUSAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER SUSQ VLY IS GETTING HIT HARDER
WITH OUTAGES PRESENTLY.
IN TERMS OF WINTRY PTYPE DETAILS, EVEN AT THIS LATE STAGE CONFIDENCE
IS LESS THAN USUAL. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG
THE I80 CORRIDOR AS THE SECONDARY TAKES OVER. MODELING IS STILL
SHOWING PLENTY OF SUBZERO TEMPS AT 925MB IN THE PHL NRN SUBURBS AND
RARITAN BASIN EVEN WITH THE SURGE OF 850MB TEMPS GOING FARTHER NORTH.
PCPN INTENSITY HAS CHANGED THE PCPN BACK TO SLEET AND EVEN SNOW, BUT
THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE LEAVING OUR CWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
SO OUR FAR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WE HAVE FALLEN BACK TO SOME HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOKING FOR IT TO REMAIN MAINLY SNOW. ONCE WE GET INTO
THE I78 AND I80 CORRIDORS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SHAKIER AS IT COULD
VERY WELL BE MORE SLEET. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS LESS FREEZING RAIN
IN THAT AREA. WE LOWERED ICE AMOUNTS THERE. FOR THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TEMPERATURES ARE
TEETERING CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS HAS HELPED HOLD DOWN ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AS HAS THE HEAVY RAIN. PROBLEM IS THE HEAVIER PCPN IS
MOVING AWAY (LESS WARM RAIN TO RAISE TEMPS AND ALSO FALL QUICKER
BEFORE FREEZING ON EXPOSED SURFACES) AND THE SECONDARY HAS FORMED.
WINDS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH FROM SNOW COVERED AREAS BASED ON THE
TRENDS IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP A STATUS QUO. SO UNTIL WE GET
INDIRECT SUNLIGHT TO PUSH US OVER THE EDGE, NONE OF THE PRESENT
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED. WE KEPT ICE ACCUMULATION
VALUES BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES IN THE AXIS FROM THE PHL NW SUBURBS
INTO THE RARITAN BASIN.
THERE IS SOME DPVA TO STILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THIS EVENT SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES, COLDER AIR STARTS MOVING
BACK IN ALOFT AND ANY LATE IN THE DAY PCPN NORTH SHOULD BE SNOW.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF OUR CWA AND BEING
FORTUNATE TO HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, THE ICE SHOULD START
MELTING OFF OF EXPOSED SURFACES AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
EXACERBATE POWER OUTAGES. GFS MOS IS FAIRLY WARM AND LOOKS TOO WARM
GIVEN THE SNOW COVER AROUND THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
STILL ANOTHER SHOT OF PVA TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH THIS EVENING AND WE
KEPT THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS THIS EVENING, TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE AS THE SECONDARY, OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD THEN
BE A PROBLEM IF ICE REMAINS ON ANY TREES OR WIRES. MIN TEMPS WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND FREEZE ANY UNTREATED
STANDING WATER OR SLUSH.
THEN A QUIET, BUT COLD DAY FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
EASES EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK RELATIVELY DRY, SO SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO CLOUDY BASED ON THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING, EVEN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING TREACHEROUS WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM DID NOT
TOUCH THE LONGTERM GRIDS THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUSLY...
AS ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED...ANOTHER WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S GFS AND EC MODELS
DEPICT TWO SEPARATE BATCHES OF ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE W/CENTRAL
US TROUGH. SINCE THE BATCHES OF ENERGY ARE SEPARATE...THIS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING A BLOCKBUSTER STORM (AS SOME OF
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT). THE FIRST AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NGT BRINGING AN
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO (MOSTLY) THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER ACTIONS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, THEN A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH/WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD BE A RAINS/SNOW MIXTURE...ENDING AS SOME
STEADY SNOW EARLY MON MORNING. AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY HAVE MOSTLY
SNOW...WHILE MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE POPS/WX FOR
THE WEEKEND ON THE CONTINUITY `RAILS` AND KEEP HI CHC/LOW LIKELY
POPS FROM SAT NIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IF THE TWO SYSTEMS
DO AGAIN MERGE...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER STORM COULD STILL
EVOLVE...SO WE ARE STILL ADVISING PARTNERS TO BE PREPARED FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND. WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THE
AFTERNOON WILL CARRY ON AS BEFORE.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY AND LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS MORNING...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET, WITH SOME SNOW
MIXED IN AROUND RDG AND ABE, ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW THIS MORNING, IFR OR WORSE, AS WE SLOWLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING PUTTING AN END TO THE FREEZING RAIN AND GIVING US JUST
PLAIN RAIN. THE TWO QUESTIONABLE SPOTS WILL BE RDG AND ABE IN TERMS
OF THE PLAIN RAIN TRANSITION WHICH COULD TAKE UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF OF DELMARVA MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE CIGS AND VSBYS
AS THE RAIN SLOWLY TAPERS OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND WE TURN THE WINDS MORE TOWARDS THE
WEST. THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE LOW-LEVELS AND WE SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND GUST UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU LATE FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED.
SAT MORNING THRU SUN...MOSTLY MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS SNOW/RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN ZONES NOW THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, MOSTLY FOR SEAS AT THIS POINT, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME SCA GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ADDED
THE DELAWARE BAY FOR GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FUNNELING OF
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP ACHIEVE SCA GUSTS. UN-SURE OF HOW
LONG PAST TONIGHT THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA
AS THE COASTAL LOW PROVIDING THE HIGHER SEAS AND GUSTS QUICKLY MOVES
OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST.
OUTLOOK...
THU THRU SAT NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUN MORNING
THRU TUE MORNING...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. GALES
POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
055.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ060>062-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ009-
010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ020>022-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
013-015>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-
015-019-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
933 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
925 AM CST
CHALLENGING MORNING AS DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR PITTSBURGH AND THE TRAILING
HIGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS MORNING WITH MANY SHORELINE SITES REPORTING GUSTS AROUND
35 KT. THIS IS RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS RIGHT ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP UP THE
WISCONSIN SHORE AS LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES TAKE OVER AND A WELL
ORGANIZED BAND OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW IS DEVELOPING AND
WORKING DOWN THE SOUTHEAST WI SHORELINE AND DEVELOPING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NE ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY AROUND
TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE AS
THE CONVERGENCE BAND PIVOTS EASTWARD. THIS IS KEY IN THAT THIS
WILL LIKELY BE WHAT IT TAKES FOR WINDS ALONG THE LAKEFRONT TO
DIMINISH BUT ALSO ELIMINATE THE OPEN FETCH OF BLOWING SNOW OFF THE
EXPANSIVE ICE PACK ON THE LAKE. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND. CURRENT TRENDS
SHOW IT MOVING STEADILY SO RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA
LOOKS SHORT BUT SNOW INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH...RESULTING IN
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR AREAS IT PASSES
OVER.
HAVE HAD EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION REGARDING HEADLINES FOR LAKESHORE
AREAS. HAVE DECIDED TO SPLIT LAKE/COOK/LAKE/PORTER AND EXTEND THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 2 PM.WHICH MAY BE A
LITTLE LONG...WHILE LEAVING THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN UNTIL NOON
AND LEAVING THE WARNING AS-IS. IN TERMS OF THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE 30-35 AND OCCASIONALLY 40 MPH
GUSTS IS VERY LIMITED BASED ON REPORTS AND LAKESHORE OBS VS. INLAND
OBS...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25 AND OCCASIONALLY 30 MPH ARE OCCURRING
INLAND. WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
OR SO AND CONFINED TO THE LAKEFRONT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY VS. ANY KIND OF UPGRADE. WINDS ONSHORE ARE BEGINNING TO
TURN NORTHERLY AND EASE UP ON SPEED WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION
EASTWARD TO THE LAKEFRONT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE LATE THIS
MORNING. THE APPROACHING SNOW BAND WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IN A SHORT TIME BUT WITH THE CONVERGENCE PASSING
OVERHEAD WINDS MAY SHIFT NNW AND EASE IN SPEED AS THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ARRIVES. TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS AND COOK
COUNTY ARE ALREADY AROUND 6 INCHES...IN MORE THAN THE 12 HOUR
WARNING CRITERIA...BUT WILL LIKELY PUSH 8 INCHES IN SPOTS BY
MIDDAY. WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND THE EXTENT OF THE
WORST CONDITIONS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER A FEW HOUR PERIOD
FELT THAT CONTINUING THE ADVISORY WOULD BE THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WITH UPDATED WORDING FOR LAKEFRONT AREAS.
MDB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRST AND FOREMOST ON THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT HAS BROUGHT NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE TO AT LEAST A PART OF 35 OF 50 STATES. AS THIS
MASSIVE SYSTEM EXITS EAST WE WILL THEN TURN ATTENTION TO A ONCE
AGAIN VERY COLD PATTERN FOR FEBRUARY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING IS CENTERED ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENTS. NORMALLY WHEN UNDER SUCH A PATH AND UPPER FORCING
WITHIN A WINTER STORM...SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...BUT AS
EXPECTED THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING YESTERDAY STRUGGLED TO SATURATE
AND A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DID NOT HAVE MUCH FOR EFFICIENT
SNOW THROUGH MID-EVE. BUT NOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BEST
DYNAMICS...THE CURRENT COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO SPORADIC HEAVY SNOW...WITH LIKELY
THE BETTER RATES EASING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF MESOSCALE BANDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTED THROUGH THAT BEST TIME...INCLUDING OVER
CHICAGO...SUPPORTING TEMPORARY RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...AS
EVIDENCED BY AT TIMES ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY AND EARLIER
REPORTS. SO CERTAINLY ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY MID-LATE MORNING BUT LIKELY STILL BE
OCCURRING IN MANY EASTERN AREAS...AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS OF
SNOW STILL FALLING ALL THE WAY BACK TO WESTERN IA.
THERE HAS BEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BASED ON RADAR
DATA INTO ALL OUR LAKE COUNTIES...BUT ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY IL AND
COOK COUNTY. THE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL SLOWLY POINT MORE TOWARD NW IN BY LATE MORNING. SOME HIGHER
TOTALS WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS COVERED IN THE
ADVISORY. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS JUST ABOVE SIX
INCHES BASED ON RADAR PERSISTENCE SEEN OVERNIGHT...NAMELY IN
NORTHERN COOK/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VERY LIKELY NOT END UP IN A NICE NORTH
TO SOUTH SWATH...BUT A BROAD 3-6 SHOULD SPEAK FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING...AND THEN AGAIN AS MENTIONED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE
PERSISTENT BANDING FURTHER NORTH. FOR HEADLINES...THE ONLY CHANGE
WAS TO DOWNGRADE LIVINGSTON COUNTY BASED ON SNOWFALL NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SIX INCHES AND RATES OF SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME DRY SLOT IMPINGEMENT. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND OBSERVED SOME ON IDOT WEBCAMS
SO FEEL COMFORTABLE THAT THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN OPEN AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST IN
THOUGH THE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...AND WITH THE DEEP
SYNOPTIC SATURATION AND EXISTING FORCING WORKING EAST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT INTENSE. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH
BLOWING SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING IN OPEN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE
MOST FRESH SNOW. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING
WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS ADVECTION
OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS A POTENT 1047MB HIGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS FROM THE
ROCKIES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER DARK
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WHILE NOT AS GREAT OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPS IN ADVECTION SCHEMES...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVE AND MAYBE INTO OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A BETTER
WESTERLY PUSH IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE
GONE MORE TOWARD CLEAR THEN WITH DROPPING TEMPS IN THAT TIME. FRI
MORNING TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED IN ALL OUTLYING AREAS IF
THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...WITH POSSIBLY A GOOD PART OF THE CHICAGO
METRO TOO. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL IL ON THIS SHIFT...BUT WITH CLOUD
CHALLENGES AND AMPLE CURRENT HEADLINES OPTED TO ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT A BETTER CHANCE TO ASSESS PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOWEST
WIND CHILLS.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE...WITH
THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INDICATING ROCKFORD REMAINING
BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY! NOT SOLD THAT IT WILL BE THAT COLD...BUT
CERTAINLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ARE VERY PROBABLE...POSSIBLY
COMPROMISING RECORD COLD HIGHS. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE CLEARING CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER CHANNELED VORTICITY
WITHIN SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IF A PERSISTENT CLEAR SKY THROUGH
THU NIGHT...THEN THAT COULD RESULT IN VERY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN THE 925MB VALUES. RIGHT NOW THAT IS
MOST FAVORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR ACTIVE WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...ALMOST CLIPPER-LIKE...CROSSING THE REGION SAT/SAT
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO BOOST POPS DURING THIS
TIME ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS IN THIS WAVE BEING STRONGER AND HAVING FOCUSED
FORCING. CERTAINLY PLACEMENT AND EVEN TIMING ISSUES LIKELY EXIST
WITH WHAT WILL PAN OUT...BUT BELIEVED THE MODEL BLEND IN POPS
SEEMED TOO LOW. PLUS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS WISE WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERY 72 HOURS HAVING HAPPENED FOR ABOUT TWO
MONTHS NOW...SO SEE NO REASON TO DOWNPLAY AN AGREED POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD INTO THE START OF THE SECOND
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
600 AM CST
RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6TH:
CHICAGO: 4 DEGREES (1982)
ROCKFORD: 3 DEGREES (1982)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING BY
LATE MORNING AND ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* PREVAILING IFR VIS THROUGH LATE MORNING. OCNL BURSTS OF LIFR VIS
POSSIBLE.
* GUSTY NNE WINDS BACKING TO THE NNW THIS AFTERNOON.
* PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. FORCING REALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER AROUND 13-14Z FOR
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
SNOW GROWTH ZONE COMBINED WITH SOME VERY MODEST ASCENT IN THE WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW TENTHS. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR OR OUR LOCAL 8KM WRF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED OR BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT AND QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE FLUX.
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTS ALREADY THIS MORNING ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THROUGH TODAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS THIS MORNING...LOW-
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING END OF SNOWFALL.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
WIND DIRECTION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING TO NNWLY.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHC OF SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BACKING
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT...WHILE A STRONGER LOW
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN STATES THEN LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-
ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL NOON
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 2 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 2 PM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
811 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRST AND FOREMOST ON THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT HAS BROUGHT NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE TO AT LEAST A PART OF 35 OF 50 STATES. AS THIS
MASSIVE SYSTEM EXITS EAST WE WILL THEN TURN ATTENTION TO A ONCE
AGAIN VERY COLD PATTERN FOR FEBRUARY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING IS CENTERED ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENTS. NORMALLY WHEN UNDER SUCH A PATH AND UPPER FORCING
WITHIN A WINTER STORM...SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...BUT AS
EXPECTED THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING YESTERDAY STRUGGLED TO SATURATE
AND A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DID NOT HAVE MUCH FOR EFFICIENT
SNOW THROUGH MID-EVE. BUT NOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BEST
DYNAMICS...THE CURRENT COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO SPORADIC HEAVY SNOW...WITH LIKELY
THE BETTER RATES EASING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF MESOSCALE BANDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTED THROUGH THAT BEST TIME...INCLUDING OVER
CHICAGO...SUPPORTING TEMPORARY RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...AS
EVIDENCED BY AT TIMES ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY AND EARLIER
REPORTS. SO CERTAINLY ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY MID-LATE MORNING BUT LIKELY STILL BE
OCCURRING IN MANY EASTERN AREAS...AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS OF
SNOW STILL FALLING ALL THE WAY BACK TO WESTERN IA.
THERE HAS BEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BASED ON RADAR
DATA INTO ALL OUR LAKE COUNTIES...BUT ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY IL AND
COOK COUNTY. THE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL SLOWLY POINT MORE TOWARD NW IN BY LATE MORNING. SOME HIGHER
TOTALS WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS COVERED IN THE
ADVISORY. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS JUST ABOVE SIX
INCHES BASED ON RADAR PERSISTENCE SEEN OVERNIGHT...NAMELY IN
NORTHERN COOK/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VERY LIKELY NOT END UP IN A NICE NORTH
TO SOUTH SWATH...BUT A BROAD 3-6 SHOULD SPEAK FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING...AND THEN AGAIN AS MENTIONED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE
PERSISTENT BANDING FURTHER NORTH. FOR HEADLINES...THE ONLY CHANGE
WAS TO DOWNGRADE LIVINGSTON COUNTY BASED ON SNOWFALL NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SIX INCHES AND RATES OF SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME DRY SLOT IMPINGEMENT. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND OBSERVED SOME ON IDOT WEBCAMS
SO FEEL COMFORTABLE THAT THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN OPEN AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST IN
THOUGH THE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...AND WITH THE DEEP
SYNOPTIC SATURATION AND EXISTING FORCING WORKING EAST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT INTENSE. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH
BLOWING SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING IN OPEN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE
MOST FRESH SNOW. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING
WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS ADVECTION
OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS A POTENT 1047MB HIGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS FROM THE
ROCKIES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER DARK
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WHILE NOT AS GREAT OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPS IN ADVECTION SCHEMES...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVE AND MAYBE INTO OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A BETTER
WESTERLY PUSH IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE
GONE MORE TOWARD CLEAR THEN WITH DROPPING TEMPS IN THAT TIME. FRI
MORNING TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED IN ALL OUTLYING AREAS IF
THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...WITH POSSIBLY A GOOD PART OF THE CHICAGO
METRO TOO. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL IL ON THIS SHIFT...BUT WITH CLOUD
CHALLENGES AND AMPLE CURRENT HEADLINES OPTED TO ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT A BETTER CHANCE TO ASSESS PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOWEST
WIND CHILLS.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE...WITH
THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INDICATING ROCKFORD REMAINING
BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY! NOT SOLD THAT IT WILL BE THAT COLD...BUT
CERTAINLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ARE VERY PROBABLE...POSSIBLY
COMPROMISING RECORD COLD HIGHS. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE CLEARING CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER CHANNELED VORTICITY
WITHIN SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IF A PERSISTENT CLEAR SKY THROUGH
THU NIGHT...THEN THAT COULD RESULT IN VERY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN THE 925MB VALUES. RIGHT NOW THAT IS
MOST FAVORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR ACTIVE WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...ALMOST CLIPPER-LIKE...CROSSING THE REGION SAT/SAT
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO BOOST POPS DURING THIS
TIME ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS IN THIS WAVE BEING STRONGER AND HAVING FOCUSED
FORCING. CERTAINLY PLACEMENT AND EVEN TIMING ISSUES LIKELY EXIST
WITH WHAT WILL PAN OUT...BUT BELIEVED THE MODEL BLEND IN POPS
SEEMED TOO LOW. PLUS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS WISE WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERY 72 HOURS HAVING HAPPENED FOR ABOUT TWO
MONTHS NOW...SO SEE NO REASON TO DOWNPLAY AN AGREED POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD INTO THE START OF THE SECOND
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
600 AM CST
RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6TH:
CHICAGO: 4 DEGREES (1982)
ROCKFORD: 3 DEGREES (1982)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING BY
LATE MORNING AND ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* PREVAILING IFR VIS THROUGH LATE MORNING. OCNL BURSTS OF LIFR VIS
POSSIBLE.
* GUSTY NNE WINDS BACKING TO THE NNW THIS AFTERNOON.
* PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. FORCING REALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER AROUND 13-14Z FOR
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
SNOW GROWTH ZONE COMBINED WITH SOME VERY MODEST ASCENT IN THE WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW TENTHS. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR OR OUR LOCAL 8KM WRF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED OR BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT AND QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE FLUX.
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTS ALREADY THIS MORNING ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THROUGH TODAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS THIS MORNING...LOW-
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING END OF SNOWFALL.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
WIND DIRECTION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING TO NNWLY.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHC OF SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BACKING
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT...WHILE A STRONGER LOW
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN STATES THEN LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032
UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
713 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRST AND FOREMOST ON THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT HAS BROUGHT NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE TO AT LEAST A PART OF 35 OF 50 STATES. AS THIS
MASSIVE SYSTEM EXITS EAST WE WILL THEN TURN ATTENTION TO A ONCE
AGAIN VERY COLD PATTERN FOR FEBRUARY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING IS CENTERED ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENTS. NORMALLY WHEN UNDER SUCH A PATH AND UPPER FORCING
WITHIN A WINTER STORM...SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...BUT AS
EXPECTED THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING YESTERDAY STRUGGLED TO SATURATE
AND A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DID NOT HAVE MUCH FOR EFFICIENT
SNOW THROUGH MID-EVE. BUT NOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BEST
DYNAMICS...THE CURRENT COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO SPORADIC HEAVY SNOW...WITH LIKELY
THE BETTER RATES EASING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF MESOSCALE BANDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTED THROUGH THAT BEST TIME...INCLUDING OVER
CHICAGO...SUPPORTING TEMPORARY RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...AS
EVIDENCED BY AT TIMES ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY AND EARLIER
REPORTS. SO CERTAINLY ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY MID-LATE MORNING BUT LIKELY STILL BE
OCCURRING IN MANY EASTERN AREAS...AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS OF
SNOW STILL FALLING ALL THE WAY BACK TO WESTERN IA.
THERE HAS BEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BASED ON RADAR
DATA INTO ALL OUR LAKE COUNTIES...BUT ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY IL AND
COOK COUNTY. THE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL SLOWLY POINT MORE TOWARD NW IN BY LATE MORNING. SOME HIGHER
TOTALS WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS COVERED IN THE
ADVISORY. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS JUST ABOVE SIX
INCHES BASED ON RADAR PERSISTENCE SEEN OVERNIGHT...NAMELY IN
NORTHERN COOK/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VERY LIKELY NOT END UP IN A NICE NORTH
TO SOUTH SWATH...BUT A BROAD 3-6 SHOULD SPEAK FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING...AND THEN AGAIN AS MENTIONED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE
PERSISTENT BANDING FURTHER NORTH. FOR HEADLINES...THE ONLY CHANGE
WAS TO DOWNGRADE LIVINGSTON COUNTY BASED ON SNOWFALL NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SIX INCHES AND RATES OF SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME DRY SLOT IMPINGEMENT. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND OBSERVED SOME ON IDOT WEBCAMS
SO FEEL COMFORTABLE THAT THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN OPEN AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST IN
THOUGH THE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...AND WITH THE DEEP
SYNOPTIC SATURATION AND EXISTING FORCING WORKING EAST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT INTENSE. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH
BLOWING SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING IN OPEN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE
MOST FRESH SNOW. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING
WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS ADVECTION
OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS A POTENT 1047MB HIGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS FROM THE
ROCKIES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER DARK
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WHILE NOT AS GREAT OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPS IN ADVECTION SCHEMES...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVE AND MAYBE INTO OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A BETTER
WESTERLY PUSH IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE
GONE MORE TOWARD CLEAR THEN WITH DROPPING TEMPS IN THAT TIME. FRI
MORNING TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED IN ALL OUTLYING AREAS IF
THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...WITH POSSIBLY A GOOD PART OF THE CHICAGO
METRO TOO. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL IL ON THIS SHIFT...BUT WITH CLOUD
CHALLENGES AND AMPLE CURRENT HEADLINES OPTED TO ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT A BETTER CHANCE TO ASSESS PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOWEST
WIND CHILLS.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE...WITH
THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INDICATING ROCKFORD REMAINING
BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY! NOT SOLD THAT IT WILL BE THAT COLD...BUT
CERTAINLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ARE VERY PROBABLE...POSSIBLY
COMPROMISING RECORD COLD HIGHS. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE CLEARING CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER CHANNELED VORTICITY
WITHIN SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IF A PERSISTENT CLEAR SKY THROUGH
THU NIGHT...THEN THAT COULD RESULT IN VERY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN THE 925MB VALUES. RIGHT NOW THAT IS
MOST FAVORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR ACTIVE WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...ALMOST CLIPPER-LIKE...CROSSING THE REGION SAT/SAT
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO BOOST POPS DURING THIS
TIME ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS IN THIS WAVE BEING STRONGER AND HAVING FOCUSED
FORCING. CERTAINLY PLACEMENT AND EVEN TIMING ISSUES LIKELY EXIST
WITH WHAT WILL PAN OUT...BUT BELIEVED THE MODEL BLEND IN POPS
SEEMED TOO LOW. PLUS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS WISE WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERY 72 HOURS HAVING HAPPENED FOR ABOUT TWO
MONTHS NOW...SO SEE NO REASON TO DOWNPLAY AN AGREED POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD INTO THE START OF THE SECOND
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
600 AM CST
RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6TH:
CHICAGO: 4 DEGREES (1982)
ROCKFORD: 3 DEGREES (1982)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW EASING SOME EARLY
TO MID MORNING AND DIMINISHING COMPLETELY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NE WINDS BACKING TO THE NNW THIS AFTERNOON.
* PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS...TEMPO DOWN TO IFR THIS MORNING. IMPROVING
TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. FORCING REALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER AROUND 13-14Z FOR
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
SNOW GROWTH ZONE COMBINED WITH SOME VERY MODEST ASCENT IN THE WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW TENTHS. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR OR OUR LOCAL 8KM WRF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED OR BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT AND QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE FLUX.
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTS ALREADY THIS MORNING ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THROUGH TODAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS THIS MORNING...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING END OF SNOWFALL.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTION.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHC OF SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BACKING
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT...WHILE A STRONGER LOW
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN STATES THEN LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032
UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
535 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRST AND FOREMOST ON THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT HAS BROUGHT NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE TO AT LEAST A PART OF 35 OF 50 STATES. AS THIS
MASSIVE SYSTEM EXITS EAST WE WILL THEN TURN ATTENTION TO A ONCE
AGAIN VERY COLD PATTERN FOR FEBRUARY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING IS CENTERED ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENTS. NORMALLY WHEN UNDER SUCH A PATH AND UPPER FORCING
WITHIN A WINTER STORM...SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...BUT AS
EXPECTED THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING YESTERDAY STRUGGLED TO SATURATE
AND A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DID NOT HAVE MUCH FOR EFFICIENT
SNOW THROUGH MID-EVE. BUT NOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BEST
DYNAMICS...THE CURRENT COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO SPORADIC HEAVY SNOW...WITH LIKELY
THE BETTER RATES EASING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF MESOSCALE BANDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTED THROUGH THAT BEST TIME...INCLUDING OVER
CHICAGO...SUPPORTING TEMPORARY RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...AS
EVIDENCED BY AT TIMES ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY AND EARLIER
REPORTS. SO CERTAINLY ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY MID-LATE MORNING BUT LIKELY STILL BE
OCCURRING IN MANY EASTERN AREAS...AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS OF
SNOW STILL FALLING ALL THE WAY BACK TO WESTERN IA.
THERE HAS BEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BASED ON RADAR
DATA INTO ALL OUR LAKE COUNTIES...BUT ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY IL AND
COOK COUNTY. THE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL SLOWLY POINT MORE TOWARD NW IN BY LATE MORNING. SOME HIGHER
TOTALS WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS COVERED IN THE
ADVISORY. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS JUST ABOVE SIX
INCHES BASED ON RADAR PERSISTENCE SEEN OVERNIGHT...NAMELY IN
NORTHERN COOK/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VERY LIKELY NOT END UP IN A NICE NORTH
TO SOUTH SWATH...BUT A BROAD 3-6 SHOULD SPEAK FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING...AND THEN AGAIN AS MENTIONED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE
PERSISTENT BANDING FURTHER NORTH. FOR HEADLINES...THE ONLY CHANGE
WAS TO DOWNGRADE LIVINGSTON COUNTY BASED ON SNOWFALL NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SIX INCHES AND RATES OF SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME DRY SLOT IMPINGEMENT. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND OBSERVED SOME ON IDOT WEBCAMS
SO FEEL COMFORTABLE THAT THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN OPEN AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST IN
THOUGH THE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...AND WITH THE DEEP
SYNOPTIC SATURATION AND EXISTING FORCING WORKING EAST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT INTENSE. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH
BLOWING SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING IN OPEN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE
MOST FRESH SNOW. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING
WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS ADVECTION
OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS A POTENT 1047MB HIGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS FROM THE
ROCKIES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER DARK
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WHILE NOT AS GREAT OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPS IN ADVECTION SCHEMES...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVE AND MAYBE INTO OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A BETTER
WESTERLY PUSH IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE
GONE MORE TOWARD CLEAR THEN WITH DROPPING TEMPS IN THAT TIME. FRI
MORNING TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED IN ALL OUTLYING AREAS IF
THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...WITH POSSIBLY A GOOD PART OF THE CHICAGO
METRO TOO. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL IL ON THIS SHIFT...BUT WITH CLOUD
CHALLENGES AND AMPLE CURRENT HEADLINES OPTED TO ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT A BETTER CHANCE TO ASSESS PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOWEST
WIND CHILLS.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE...WITH
THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INDICATING ROCKFORD REMAINING
BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY! NOT SOLD THAT IT WILL BE THAT COLD...BUT
CERTAINLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ARE VERY PROBABLE...POSSIBLY
COMPROMISING RECORD COLD HIGHS. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE CLEARING CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER CHANNELED VORTICITY
WITHIN SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IF A PERSISTENT CLEAR SKY THROUGH
THU NIGHT...THEN THAT COULD RESULT IN VERY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN THE 925MB VALUES. RIGHT NOW THAT IS
MOST FAVORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR ACTIVE WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...ALMOST CLIPPER-LIKE...CROSSING THE REGION SAT/SAT
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO BOOST POPS DURING THIS
TIME ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS IN THIS WAVE BEING STRONGER AND HAVING FOCUSED
FORCING. CERTAINLY PLACEMENT AND EVEN TIMING ISSUES LIKELY EXIST
WITH WHAT WILL PAN OUT...BUT BELIEVED THE MODEL BLEND IN POPS
SEEMED TOO LOW. PLUS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS WISE WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERY 72 HOURS HAVING HAPPENED FOR ABOUT TWO
MONTHS NOW...SO SEE NO REASON TO DOWNPLAY AN AGREED POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD INTO THE START OF THE SECOND
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW EASING SOME EARLY
TO MID MORNING AND DIMINISHING COMPLETELY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NE WINDS BACKING TO THE NNW THIS AFTERNOON.
* PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS...TEMPO DOWN TO IFR THIS MORNING. IMPROVING
TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. FORCING REALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER AROUND 13-14Z FOR
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
SNOW GROWTH ZONE COMBINED WITH SOME VERY MODEST ASCENT IN THE WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW TENTHS. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR OR OUR LOCAL 8KM WRF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED OR BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT AND QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE FLUX.
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTS ALREADY THIS MORNING ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THROUGH TODAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS THIS MORNING...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING END OF SNOWFALL.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTION.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHC OF SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BACKING
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT...WHILE A STRONGER LOW
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN STATES THEN LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032
UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
546 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO EXPAND THE WIND CHILL WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GET AND HOW
COLD WIND CHILL READINGS DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER
CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AT THIS
TIME. EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF AND GFS DID THE BEST ON THE JET THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS DID FINE
WITH THE SREF AND NAM THE WORST WHILE THE REMAINING OUTPUT WAS ABOUT
THE SAME. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND SREF
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST
HALF OF THE NIGHT THIS MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH AND AFFECTS MORE OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN HALF MORE UNDER
SUBSIDENCE.
FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO
PROVIDE LIFT. WHEN THE AIR MASS GETS THIS COLD THE MODELS TEND TO
OVERPRODUCE CLOUD COVER SO AM REALLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH THERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY BUT COULD
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EVENING SHIFT HAD TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE EAST OF THAT. THOSE
ARE IN AFFECT UNTIL 18Z. CURRENTLY THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY ARE DOING WELL AND WILL NOT CHANGE. CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS PARAMOUNT TO WHAT KIND OF WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHT AND HOW LONG TO MAKE IT. PER REASONING GIVEN...MODELS
ARE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER RIGHT NOW WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. CURRENTLY THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE RAP ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FIELD WELL...WHICH IS
SCARY.
PER THAT PLUS SNOWFIELD...VERY COLD AIR MASS AND START TO THE DAY...
AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. IF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST
FOR KGLD IS -1 WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR THE DAY. AS
STATED ABOVE...CURRENT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...
IF CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST PANS OUT...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS THIS FURTHER.
DURING THE NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTING A SATURATED AIR MASS FROM 700
MB DOWN WHICH IS IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED THAT ACCORDINGLY. MODELS FORECASTING
VERY COLD MINS AS SURFACE RIDGE COMES IN DURING THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING...
CONTINUED THE VERY COLD FORECAST BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE. AS RESULT...ANOTHER WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED
WITH ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AND THE
COMPLEXITY/UNCERTAINTY OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS AFTER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT IS DONE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP AT JET LEVEL WITH A
COUPLE OF MODELS SHOWING THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT AND A COUPLE OF THEM
IN THE RIGHT REAR THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
REMAIN AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE
DEPTH OF SATURATED AIR MASS DECREASES BUT IT STILL IS IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE. SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS...CLOUD COVER AND A SNOWFIELD
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY COLD ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER. DURING THE NIGHT MODELS REDEVELOP OR KEEP A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MOISTURE GETS
MUCH MORE SHALLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME WILL
CONFINE THE FLURRIES TO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WARMS WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ONLY
THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LATE IN THE NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER JET STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER WITH ALL THE MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 700 MB
AND MAYBE SOME VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY END UP BEING
STRATUS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM UP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH. BECAUSE OF THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER...
SNOW FIELD...AND MODELS TENDENCY TO SCOUR OUT ARCTIC AIR TOO FAST...
WENT TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SMALL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP. TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE MONDAY AS LESS DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 1000-500MB MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING SOME
PRECIP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ONCE THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MODELS ARE OVERPREDICTING THE COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW LOW
THOSE CEILINGS ARE. IN SUCH AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS...THE
MODELS THINK THERE IS CLOUD COVER BECAUSE OF THAT. SO HAVE NOT PUT
IN THE LOW CEILINGS THEY ARE PREDICTING AND KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH AND WEST OF KGLD. SO CHOSE NOT TO MENTION
ANY SNOW AT EITHER TAF SITE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
444 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GET AND HOW
COLD WIND CHILL READINGS DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER
CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AT THIS
TIME. EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF AND GFS DID THE BEST ON THE JET THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS DID FINE
WITH THE SREF AND NAM THE WORST WHILE THE REMAINING OUTPUT WAS ABOUT
THE SAME. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND SREF
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST
HALF OF THE NIGHT THIS MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH AND AFFECTS MORE OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN HALF MORE UNDER
SUBSIDENCE.
FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO
PROVIDE LIFT. WHEN THE AIR MASS GETS THIS COLD THE MODELS TEND TO
OVERPRODUCE CLOUD COVER SO AM REALLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH THERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY BUT COULD
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EVENING SHIFT HAD TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE EAST OF THAT. THOSE
ARE IN AFFECT UNTIL 18Z. CURRENTLY THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY ARE DOING WELL AND WILL NOT CHANGE. CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS PARAMOUNT TO WHAT KIND OF WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHT AND HOW LONG TO MAKE IT. PER REASONING GIVEN...MODELS
ARE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER RIGHT NOW WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. CURRENTLY THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE RAP ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FIELD WELL...WHICH IS
SCARY.
PER THAT PLUS SNOWFIELD...VERY COLD AIR MASS AND START TO THE DAY...
AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. IF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST
FOR KGLD IS -1 WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR THE DAY. AS
STATED ABOVE...CURRENT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...
IF CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST PANS OUT...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS THIS FURTHER.
DURING THE NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTING A SATURATED AIR MASS FROM 700
MB DOWN WHICH IS IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED THAT ACCORDINGLY. MODELS FORECASTING
VERY COLD MINS AS SURFACE RIDGE COMES IN DURING THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING...
CONTINUED THE VERY COLD FORECAST BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE. AS RESULT...ANOTHER WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED
WITH ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AND THE
COMPLEXITY/UNCERTAINTY OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS AFTER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT IS DONE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP AT JET LEVEL WITH A
COUPLE OF MODELS SHOWING THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT AND A COUPLE OF THEM
IN THE RIGHT REAR THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
REMAIN AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE
DEPTH OF SATURATED AIR MASS DECREASES BUT IT STILL IS IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE. SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS...CLOUD COVER AND A SNOWFIELD
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY COLD ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER. DURING THE NIGHT MODELS REDEVELOP OR KEEP A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MOISTURE GETS
MUCH MORE SHALLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME WILL
CONFINE THE FLURRIES TO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WARMS WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ONLY
THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LATE IN THE NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER JET STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER WITH ALL THE MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 700 MB
AND MAYBE SOME VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY END UP BEING
STRATUS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM UP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH. BECAUSE OF THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER...
SNOW FIELD...AND MODELS TENDENCY TO SCOUR OUT ARCTIC AIR TOO FAST...
WENT TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SMALL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP. TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE MONDAY AS LESS DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 1000-500MB MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING SOME
PRECIP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ONCE THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MODELS ARE OVERPREDICTING THE COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW LOW
THOSE CEILINGS ARE. IN SUCH AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS...THE
MODELS THINK THERE IS CLOUD COVER BECAUSE OF THAT. SO HAVE NOT PUT
IN THE LOW CEILINGS THEY ARE PREDICTING AND KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH AND WEST OF KGLD. SO CHOSE NOT TO MENTION
ANY SNOW AT EITHER TAF SITE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
029-042.
CO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GET AND HOW
COLD WIND CHILL READINGS DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER
CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AT THIS
TIME. EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF AND GFS DID THE BEST ON THE JET THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS DID FINE
WITH THE SREF AND NAM THE WORST WHILE THE REMAINING OUTPUT WAS ABOUT
THE SAME. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND SREF
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST
HALF OF THE NIGHT THIS MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH AND AFFECTS MORE OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN HALF MORE UNDER
SUBSIDENCE.
FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO
PROVIDE LIFT. WHEN THE AIR MASS GETS THIS COLD THE MODELS TEND TO
OVERPRODUCE CLOUD COVER SO AM REALLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH THERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY BUT COULD
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EVENING SHIFT HAD TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE EAST OF THAT. THOSE
ARE IN AFFECT UNTIL 18Z. CURRENTLY THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY ARE DOING WELL AND WILL NOT CHANGE. CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS PARAMOUNT TO WHAT KIND OF WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHT AND HOW LONG TO MAKE IT. PER REASONING GIVEN...MODELS
ARE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER RIGHT NOW WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. CURRENTLY THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE RAP ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FIELD WELL...WHICH IS
SCARY.
PER THAT PLUS SNOWFIELD...VERY COLD AIR MASS AND START TO THE DAY...
AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. IF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST
FOR KGLD IS -1 WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR THE DAY. AS
STATED ABOVE...CURRENT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...
IF CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST PANS OUT...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS THIS FURTHER.
DURING THE NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTING A SATURATED AIR MASS FROM 700
MB DOWN WHICH IS IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED THAT ACCORDINGLY. MODELS FORECASTING
VERY COLD MINS AS SURFACE RIDGE COMES IN DURING THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING...
CONTINUED THE VERY COLD FORECAST BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE. AS RESULT...ANOTHER WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED
WITH ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AND THE
COMPLEXITY/UNCERTAINTY OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS AFTER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT IS DONE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP AT JET LEVEL WITH A
COUPLE OF MODELS SHOWING THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT AND A COUPLE OF THEM
IN THE RIGHT REAR THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
REMAIN AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE
DEPTH OF SATURATED AIR MASS DECREASES BUT IT STILL IS IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE. SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS...CLOUD COVER AND A SNOWFIELD
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY COLD ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER. DURING THE NIGHT MODELS REDEVELOP OR KEEP A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MOISTURE GETS
MUCH MORE SHALLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME WILL
CONFINE THE FLURRIES TO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WARMS WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ONLY
THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LATE IN THE NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER JET STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER WITH ALL THE MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 700 MB
AND MAYBE SOME VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY END UP BEING
STRATUS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM UP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH. BECAUSE OF THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER...
SNOW FIELD...AND MODELS TENDENCY TO SCOUR OUT ARCTIC AIR TOO FAST...
WENT TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SMALL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP. TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE MONDAY AS LESS DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 1000-500MB MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING SOME
PRECIP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ONCE THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST...SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY TAPERED OFF AT KGLD AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AT KMCK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BEHIND THE
SNOWFALL...MIST HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SNOW PACK SO HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VISIBILITY AT KGLD TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. KMCK WILL START
OUT IFR WITH SNOWFALL AND BECOME MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
SNOWFALL ENDS AT 09Z. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS LAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW WITH VISIBILITY RETURNING TO VFR
IN THE MORNING AROUND 12Z. LOW OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD BECOME VFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 0Z FOR KMCK AND 3Z FOR KGLD.
THE CLEARING TOMORROW EVENING IS REFLECTED IN GFS MOS GUIDANCE
AND SEEMS MOST PROBABLE CONSIDERING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE
DEPARTING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
953 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE TODAY...AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE LOW TRACKS
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT...AND THE SNOW WINDS
DOWN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALSO...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO CROSS
NORTHERNMOST NEW YORK STATE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AS OF 1445Z.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL RATES TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE NOW EXPECT 6
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IN NORTHERN COOS COUNTY...NORTHERN
OXFORD AS WELL AS NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY FROM THIS MESOSCALE
FEATURE. THIS NOW PLACES ALL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY.
LASTEST HRRR RUN SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL IN THIS REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 21Z.
LATEST PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO BRING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW
FOR PORTLAND MAINE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT
WE HAVE HAD A ONE FOOT SNOWSTORM...AND WE ONLY AVERAGE A ONE FOOT
SNOWSTORM ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. HERE ARE THE DATES FOR THIS YEAR...
12/14-15/13...12.4 INCHES
1/1-2/14......11.9 INCHES (JUST MISSED!)
2/5/14........12.0 INCHES TODAY???
PREV DISC...SNOW HAS MOVED INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. AS THE SNOW BEGINS IT BECOMES QUITE INTENSE VERY QUICKLY.
MANY OBSERVATIONS RECORDED SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2
MILE WITHIN 20 MINUTES OF THE FIRST SNOW BEING OBSERVED. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BROAD
AREA OF SNOW... SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATION OF 0.07 LIQUID EQUIVALENT
IN ABOUT 40 MINUTES AT CONCORD. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE
WARM ADVECTION LIFTING MOVES EAST TODAY.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE AREA... BUT IT IS
FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN IN SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA BY 5-6 AM OR SO WITH SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD TO PORTLAND
BY 7-8 AM. ONCE SNOW BEGINS IT WILL BECOME HEAVY FAIRLY QUICKLY...
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR OR MORE LASTING THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AREA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MAINE. LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
ALTHOUGH SOME BANDING MAY CAUSE LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES...
THE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS SPREAD ACROSS A WIDE AREA
ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD... THOUGH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND 850 MB
LIFTING. SNOW RATIOS WILL VARY FROM 12-1 TO 20-1 ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW COMES TO AN END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SNOW MAY
LAST A BIT LONGER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED AND THE WARNING/ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE OPTED NOT TO DO THIS
YET AND WAIT FOR RADAR TRENDS TODAY BEFORE MAKING THIS CALL.
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S BY THE COAST AND UPPER
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TENDS TO HOLD ONTO THE +PNA CONFIGURATION...
ALTHOUGH IT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED... AS REX BLOCKING OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. ALL IN ALL... THIS WILL
LEAD TO A TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW... AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL.
ONLY ISSUE WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME... AS 500
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. 00Z GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO
TREND TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM... AS SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES DO NOT PHASE. HAVE HELD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD AS MODELS SUGGESTING INVERTED TROUGHING COULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN FIRST WAVE AND MAIN 500MB TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SNOW BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES IN SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY.
VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY FALL TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES DURING THE
MORNING AT PORTLAND AND PORTSMOUTH AND POTENTIALLY AT CONCORD...
AUGUSTA... AND ROCKLAND AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE WEST.
LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-
008-018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ012>014-019>022-024>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
622 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
THE WINTER STORM THAT LIKELY BROUGHT GENERALLY 2-6 INCHES OF WIND-
SWEPT SNOW TO THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (HIGHEST SOUTH AND
EAST...LOWEST NORTH AND WEST) IS MAKING A STEADY DEPARTURE EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES TO TAKE
CENTER STAGE THESE NEXT FEW MORNINGS/NIGHTS. IN TERMS OF ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES THESE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ARE LOOKING LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN IN 3-4 YEARS...SEE
SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR EVIDENCE OF THIS PER GRAND ISLAND
DATA.
STARTING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED LINE OF
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES QUICKLY VACATING THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS SNOW HAS ENDED/MOVED OUT...WINDS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ON THE DECLINE FROM WEST-TO-EAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 111Z/5AM NOW RANGING FROM GENERALLY ONLY 10-15 MPH IN WESTERN
COUNTIES...TO 15-20 MPH/HIGHER GUSTS IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIMITED/MINOR...NEAR-GROUND BLOWING SNOW COULD STILL LINGER
THIS MORNING...THE VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS HAVE
ENDED...AND THUS EARLIER LET GO OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY/WARNING. HOWEVER...A CWA-WIDE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 17Z/11 AM TO COVER A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF -15 TO NEAR -20 VALUES. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE AREA ARE NOT
TECHNICALLY MEETING LOCAL CWA CRITERIA OF -20...MOST PLACES ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT NEIGHBORING
KS OFFICES UTILIZE A -15 CRITERIA. 11Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH PRESSURE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA
CURRENTLY AROUND 1038 MILLIBARS...BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 1051MB
IN CENTRAL MT. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CONFIRMS THAT THE
PRIMARY DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ZIPPED
WELL-EASTWARD TO THE IL/IN BORDER AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
ZERO AND -5 DEGREES...AND MAYBE COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS AS
WIDESPREAD CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS...OTHER THAN THE OBVIOUS WIND CHILL
CONCERNS YET THIS MORNING...THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
ACTUALLY TURNING OUT TO BE SKY COVER. AS IS SOMETIMES THE
CASE...EARLIER MODEL/GUIDANCE RUNS WERE APPARENTLY WAY TOO EAGER
TO HOLD ONTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TODAY...BUT A GLANCE AT
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS SUCH AS
FROM THE HRRR ARE NOW STRONGLY-SUGGESTIVE THAT THERE WILL BE QUITE
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN EARLIER-EXPECTED...CERTAINLY NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY DESPITE SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. BOTTOM
LINE...SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL UPDATES TO SKY COVER GRIDS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUN...IT WILL STILL BE A VERY COLD DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF -20C. ALTHOUGH AM A BIT LEARY
THAT FORECAST HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY PROVE TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO
COLD GIVEN THE SUN...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
HIGHS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA CLIMBING NO HIGHER THAN 6-8 DEGREES.
AS A WHOLE...SUSTAINED NORTH BREEZES TODAY WILL AVERAGE SOMEWHERE
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH. EVEN AFTER THE WIND
CHILL HEADLINE EXPIRES...VERY COLD CHILL VALUES OF GENERALLY -5 TO
-12 WILL PERSIST EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS TODAY...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST.
TURNING TO TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PICTURE INVOLVES
CONTINUED...FAIRLY FLAT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST INTO TX...AND ALSO FOCUSED
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET TO THE EAST...IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HOWEVER...AM
EXPECTING ANY ASSOCIATED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO REMAIN AT A
COUNTY OR TWO WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ANY PRECIP MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL PROMOTE NEAR-CALM
TO LIGHT BREEZES ONLY UP TO AROUND 5 MPH BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.
OBVIOUSLY...IF SKIES WERE TO REMAIN CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY
IDEAL SETUP FOR A MAJOR TEMP CRASH GIVEN THE SNOW COVER.
HOWEVER...WITH MID CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE ON THE INCREASE...THINK
LOWS WILL PROBABLY FALL A BIT SHORT OF MAX-COLD POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. OVERALL...USED A GUIDANCE BLEND TO ONLY MAKE
MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE -6 TO -11
RANGE. AM A BIT CONCERNED THOUGH THAT LOWS MAY FALL A BIT FARTHER
THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THUS SUPPOSE SOME ISOLATED -15 READINGS ARE PROBABLY
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. NO
MATTER WHAT...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL NEED ISSUED TONIGHT...AS CURRENTLY HAVE CHILLS
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF -20 OR COLDER NORTHEAST OF A
LEXINGTON-HEBRON LINE. STRONGLY CONSIDERED ISSUING THIS WIND CHILL
HEADLINE ON THIS SHIFT...BUT GIVEN THAT ONE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
FOR THIS MORNING...AND THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING LOW TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS...WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFT TO
POTENTIALLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY AND WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
NO HUGE ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST AND WILL BE PRETTY MUCH A FORECAST
FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES.
WE WILL LIE WITHIN VERY PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL LOW-AMPLITUDE
FLOW...WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL NOT BE MOVING OUT
ANYTIME SOON AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE MUCH
OF OUR WEATHER.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL BRINGING A QUICK SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM. I
REDUCED ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO MERE FLURRIES AS
EACH OF THESE WAVES ARE VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE...AND FOCUSED MORE TO THE
SOUTH. A BIT MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL ARRIVE IN THE PLAINS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT PERHAPS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE
AREA. A FINGER OF THE UPPER JET STREAM MAY JUST MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HELP INDUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT OUR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE DRY...SO KEPT CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY.
BY MONDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS ADVERTISED AMONG ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL RUNS THAT SHOULD HIT THE ROCKIES WITH A POSITIVE TILT.
A SURFACE HIGH SHOULD HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME
RETURN FLOW...AND INCREASED MOISTURE...TO GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. ALSO...WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH WIND CHILL FOR NOT
ONLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. I GENERALLY USED
ENSEMBLE TRENDS FOR TEMPERATURES AND FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND INITIALIZED GRIDS AND PERFORMED MINOR VARIATIONS FROM THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE 6 HOURS AGO...CONFIDENCE IN
PREVAILING VFR CEILING HAS RISEN CONSIDERABLY...AS SEVERAL EARLIER
MODEL RUNS/GUIDANCE APPARENTLY DID A RATHER POOR JOB HOLDING ONTO
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILING WELL INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS IN SOME CASES.
THAT BEING SAID...SUPPOSE A FEW LIMITED PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TODAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING A BRIEF
MVFR CEILING. HOWEVER...WITH THE EVIDENCE NOW LARGELY POINTING
TOWARD VFR CEILING AND IN FACT VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
WHATSOEVER...HAVE DITCHED ANY MENTION OF MVFR FROM THE LATEST
TAF. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL AVERAGE AROUND
15KT FROM THE NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS...WITH OVERNIGHT
BREEZES DECREASING TO AROUND 7KT OR LESS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE ARE LIKELY GETTING INTO A FEW OF THE COLDEST
DAYS/NIGHTS WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE IN TERMS OF ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE. HERE ARE A FEW TIDBITS ABOUT THE LAST TIME HIGHS/LOWS
WERE NEAR/BELOW OUR CURRENT FORECAST VALUES AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
DATA SITE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT:
- WEDNESDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE: 6 DEGREES
- THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 6 DEGREES
OR COLDER: FEB. 1, 2011 (6 DEGREES)
- THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN
5 DEGREES: JAN. 7, 2010 (3 DEGREES)
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURS MORNING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE: -9 DEGREES
- THE LAST TIME THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER
THAN -9 DEGREES: JAN. 23, 2011: (-10 DEGREES)
- THE LAST TIME THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER
THAN -15 DEGREES: JAN. 9, 2010: (-16 DEGREES)
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
THE WINTER STORM THAT LIKELY BROUGHT GENERALLY 2-6 INCHES OF WIND-
SWEPT SNOW TO THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (HIGHEST SOUTH AND
EAST...LOWEST NORTH AND WEST) IS MAKING A STEADY DEPARTURE EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES TO TAKE
CENTER STAGE THESE NEXT FEW MORNINGS/NIGHTS. IN TERMS OF ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES THESE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ARE LOOKING LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN IN 3-4 YEARS...SEE
SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR EVIDENCE OF THIS PER GRAND ISLAND
DATA.
STARTING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED LINE OF
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES QUICKLY VACATING THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS SNOW HAS ENDED/MOVED OUT...WINDS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ON THE DECLINE FROM WEST-TO-EAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 111Z/5AM NOW RANGING FROM GENERALLY ONLY 10-15 MPH IN WESTERN
COUNTIES...TO 15-20 MPH/HIGHER GUSTS IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIMITED/MINOR...NEAR-GROUND BLOWING SNOW COULD STILL LINGER
THIS MORNING...THE VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS HAVE
ENDED...AND THUS EARLIER LET GO OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY/WARNING. HOWEVER...A CWA-WIDE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 17Z/11 AM TO COVER A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF -15 TO NEAR -20 VALUES. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE AREA ARE NOT
TECHNICALLY MEETING LOCAL CWA CRITERIA OF -20...MOST PLACES ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT NEIGHBORING
KS OFFICES UTILIZE A -15 CRITERIA. 11Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH PRESSURE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA
CURRENTLY AROUND 1038 MILLIBARS...BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 1051MB
IN CENTRAL MT. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CONFIRMS THAT THE
PRIMARY DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ZIPPED
WELL-EASTWARD TO THE IL/IN BORDER AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
ZERO AND -5 DEGREES...AND MAYBE COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS AS
WIDESPREAD CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS...OTHER THAN THE OBVIOUS WIND CHILL
CONCERNS YET THIS MORNING...THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
ACTUALLY TURNING OUT TO BE SKY COVER. AS IS SOMETIMES THE
CASE...EARLIER MODEL/GUIDANCE RUNS WERE APPARENTLY WAY TOO EAGER
TO HOLD ONTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TODAY...BUT A GLANCE AT
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS SUCH AS
FROM THE HRRR ARE NOW STRONGLY-SUGGESTIVE THAT THERE WILL BE QUITE
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN EARLIER-EXPECTED...CERTAINLY NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY DESPITE SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. BOTTOM
LINE...SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL UPDATES TO SKY COVER GRIDS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUN...IT WILL STILL BE A VERY COLD DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF -20C. ALTHOUGH AM A BIT LEARY
THAT FORECAST HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY PROVE TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO
COLD GIVEN THE SUN...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
HIGHS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA CLIMBING NO HIGHER THAN 6-8 DEGREES.
AS A WHOLE...SUSTAINED NORTH BREEZES TODAY WILL AVERAGE SOMEWHERE
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH. EVEN AFTER THE WIND
CHILL HEADLINE EXPIRES...VERY COLD CHILL VALUES OF GENERALLY -5 TO
-12 WILL PERSIST EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS TODAY...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST.
TURNING TO TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PICTURE INVOLVES
CONTINUED...FAIRLY FLAT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST INTO TX...AND ALSO FOCUSED
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET TO THE EAST...IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HOWEVER...AM
EXPECTING ANY ASSOCIATED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO REMAIN AT A
COUNTY OR TWO WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ANY PRECIP MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL PROMOTE NEAR-CALM
TO LIGHT BREEZES ONLY UP TO AROUND 5 MPH BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.
OBVIOUSLY...IF SKIES WERE TO REMAIN CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY
IDEAL SETUP FOR A MAJOR TEMP CRASH GIVEN THE SNOW COVER.
HOWEVER...WITH MID CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE ON THE INCREASE...THINK
LOWS WILL PROBABLY FALL A BIT SHORT OF MAX-COLD POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. OVERALL...USED A GUIDANCE BLEND TO ONLY MAKE
MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE -6 TO -11
RANGE. AM A BIT CONCERNED THOUGH THAT LOWS MAY FALL A BIT FARTHER
THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THUS SUPPOSE SOME ISOLATED -15 READINGS ARE PROBABLY
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. NO
MATTER WHAT...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL NEED ISSUED TONIGHT...AS CURRENTLY HAVE CHILLS
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF -20 OR COLDER NORTHEAST OF A
LEXINGTON-HEBRON LINE. STRONGLY CONSIDERED ISSUING THIS WIND CHILL
HEADLINE ON THIS SHIFT...BUT GIVEN THAT ONE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
FOR THIS MORNING...AND THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING LOW TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS...WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFT TO
POTENTIALLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY AND WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
NO HUGE ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST AND WILL BE PRETTY MUCH A FORECAST
FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES.
WE WILL LIE WITHIN VERY PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL LOW-AMPLITUDE
FLOW...WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL NOT BE MOVING OUT
ANYTIME SOON AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE MUCH
OF OUR WEATHER.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL BRINGING A QUICK SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM. I
REDUCED ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO MERE FLURRIES AS
EACH OF THESE WAVES ARE VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE...AND FOCUSED MORE TO THE
SOUTH. A BIT MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL ARRIVE IN THE PLAINS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT PERHAPS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE
AREA. A FINGER OF THE UPPER JET STREAM MAY JUST MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HELP INDUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT OUR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE DRY...SO KEPT CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY.
BY MONDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS ADVERTISED AMONG ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL RUNS THAT SHOULD HIT THE ROCKIES WITH A POSITIVE TILT.
A SURFACE HIGH SHOULD HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME
RETURN FLOW...AND INCREASED MOISTURE...TO GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. ALSO...WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH WIND CHILL FOR NOT
ONLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. I GENERALLY USED
ENSEMBLE TRENDS FOR TEMPERATURES AND FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND INITIALIZED GRIDS AND PERFORMED MINOR VARIATIONS FROM THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING VISIBILITIES OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...THIS REMAINS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST REGARDING WHEN CEILING WILL CONSISTENTLY RETURN TO VFR
LEVELS. INITIALLY...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT FALLING SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR CATEGORY FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 4 HOURS...BEFORE THE ENDING
OF FALLING SNOW BRINGS VFR VISIBILITY BACK INTO PLAY BEFORE
SUNRISE. AS MENTIONED...CEILING TRENDS ARE A MUCH BIGGER QUESTION
MARK...AS SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE BRING BACK VFR MUCH SOONER THAN
OTHERS. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO PLAY CLOSER TOWARD
WHAT IS LIKELY THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF THINGS...AND MAINTAIN
PREVAILING HIGH-END MVFR THROUGH THE FIRST 16 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR COULD MATERIALIZE
WELL-BEFORE THAT TIME...SO PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING IS POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS EARLY
THIS MORNING DECREASING TO AROUND 15KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS...AND THEN TO UNDER 10KT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE ARE LIKELY GETTING INTO A FEW OF THE COLDEST
DAYS/NIGHTS WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE IN TERMS OF ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE. HERE ARE A FEW TIDBITS ABOUT THE LAST TIME HIGHS/LOWS
WERE NEAR/BELOW OUR CURRENT FORECAST VALUES AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
DATA SITE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT:
- WEDNESDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE: 6 DEGREES
- THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 6 DEGREES
OR COLDER: FEB. 1, 2011 (6 DEGREES)
- THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN
5 DEGREES: JAN. 7, 2010 (3 DEGREES)
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURS MORNING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE: -9 DEGREES
- THE LAST TIME THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER
THAN -9 DEGREES: JAN. 23, 2011: (-10 DEGREES)
- THE LAST TIME THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER
THAN -15 DEGREES: JAN. 9, 2010: (-16 DEGREES)
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING -SN ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WITH THE BACK EDGE
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF KCDR TO KHYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING TIMING/PLACEMENT RATHER WELL...AND PUSHES THE -SN OUT
OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME...WIND CHILL INDICES
HAVE PLUMMETED TO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE. EXPECT VALUES TO REMAIN AS
SUCH THRU MID MORNING UNTIL WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND CHILL ADV UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF
TEMP RECOVERY AND WILL ON THE WHOLE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ALSO GOOD
AGREEMENT ADDITIONAL SN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS PART OF NEXT WEEK. FRI AFTN...GFS/CMC/ECM ALL
POINT TO SN DEVELOPING IN KS ASSOC WITH MID LYR FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...THEN EXPANDING NWD INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. COLD
AND DRY THEN UNTIL MONDAY WHEN NEXT SN CHANCE COMES. GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 700-500MB QG FORCING..THIS WOULD PLACE THE SW/SRN CWA
AT HIGHEST RISK FOR SN ACCUM THRU AT LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE WITH STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT ALL 3
TAF SITES AND THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR VISBY IN BLOWING SNOW.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES DURING THE MORNING WE WILL SEE
THE BLOWING SNOW DECREASE AS WELL. MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT KOMA/KLNK
AND WILL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CIGS INCREASE TO
VFR...BUT BKN VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL 3 SITES BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME SCT AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1006 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS
OBSERVED ON AREA RADARS...NOTE KBUF RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE...AND
SURFACE OBS LATE THIS MORNING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THIS WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK 15-19Z AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK 18-21Z. WHILE WE ONLY SAW 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE FRONT
END OF THE STORM THIS MORNING...BETTER DYNAMICS AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR BETTER SNOW PRODUCTION WITHIN THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
CROSSING OUR REGION FROM LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 18:1 SHOULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL 5-8 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME RATES AS HIGH AS AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR
CENTERED AROUND NOONTIME.
AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM TRANSFERS TO A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH TOWARD
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW TO THE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...INLAND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY WHICH WILL HOLD ON LONGER INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE NIGHT UNDER MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...JUST BELOW ZERO IN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND IN THE LOW TEENS
JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM HUDSON BAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC...MAINTAINING A COLD WSW FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A GOOD BREEZE DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING A LITTLE WIND
CHILL AND BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. OTHERWISE FROM A SYNOPTIC
STANDPOINT IT WILL BE BENIGN WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP OUTSIDE OF
LAKE EFFECT AREAS. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MESOSCALE.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE LAKE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY. EXPECT JUST A FEW DISORGANIZED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY IN THE MORNING TO LIFT
TOWARDS WATERTOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS. COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -18C.
THIS WILL YIELD LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 7-8K FEET FOR
A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING LATER FRIDAY. THE FLOW
APPEARS WELL ALIGNED FROM THE WSW...AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS
FORECAST IN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE SUNY STONY BROOK WORKSTATION WRF SHOWS A WELL
DEVELOPED BAND FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SETUP...AND THIS BAND MAY
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN
FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WILL HOIST A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FROM LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUGGEST MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOULD FOCUS ON SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF LEWIS COUNTY...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OSWEGO COUNTY.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
OF COURSE LAKE ERIE IS LARGELY FROZEN...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MAY VERY WELL DEVELOP A FEW OPENINGS
IN THE LAKE ICE. IN ADDITION...INCREASING WSW FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME
FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE AT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE LAKE...WITH
DIFFERENCES IN FRICTION BETWEEN THE SMOOTH ICE COVERED LAKE AND
ROUGH LAND FORCING CONVERGENCE. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AT TIMES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH A LOW CHANCE POP TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT ANY OPENINGS IN
THE ICE COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THIS LATEST
BATCH OF COLD PEAKING ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE
MID TEENS IN MANY AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENED STATE BY THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 20S.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LIKELIHOOD OF A
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION DURING THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BACK OFF FROM
EARLIER AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS...NOW TAKING A RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE STRONGER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
WELL TO OUR EAST. THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIETY IN THE 00Z
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WITH A FEW STILL SUPPORTING A STRONGER
SOLUTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SNOW...BUT HOW SIGNIFICANT
THIS IS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
REGARDLESS OF LOW TRACK...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. THIS WILL BRING MORE COLD WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING VIS TO 1/4SM AT TIMES WITH SOME BLSN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 21Z BUT MAY REMAIN IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH IFR POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
A BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH OF SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBUF WSR-88D IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO AN EQUIPMENT
FAILURE EARLIER THIS EVENING. NEW PARTS ARE ON ORDER...HOWEVER THE
RADAR WILL REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL THESE PARTS ARRIVE AND
APPROPRIATE REPAIRS CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ005-
006-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ001>004-010-011-013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ012-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH
EQUIPMENT...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
927 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS AS OF 900 AM WAS TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD DATA AND
BLEND INTO LATEST RAP/LAMP GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPS
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO LEANED IN
THIS DIRECTION. MAINLY NOISE-LEVEL CHANGES HOWEVER AS FORECAST
PANNING OUT NICELY AT THIS POINT. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF STORM
IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL CRNT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8 INCHES
CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING
STRONG LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY
SLOT...WHICH SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE
NOTICED AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H
CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH
1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED RH/LIFT FROM S/W
ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN BAND. THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF PRECIP. THIS
IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z THIS
MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H
CIRCULATION. THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST
AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING
BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH
CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT IN STORM TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50 TO 0.75"
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM 2 TO
5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
WL QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES
DEVELOPING AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW
PACK WL RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER
VALLEYS. WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR
THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT
WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS
ACRS THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
1/2SM AND 1SM MUCH OF THE DAY WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT
TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
651 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS
MORNING...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 100% ENTIRE CWA AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS/DWPTS BASED ON CRNT OBS. CRNT SHOWS LIGHT SNOW ACRS OUR FA
WITH BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT WITH VIS BLW
1/2SM ATTM. EXPECT THESE BANDS TO MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ZNS THRU MIDDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL
MODERATE BANDS OF SNOW WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN. THESE WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL INTO THE EVENING HRS. OVERALL...FCST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY GOOD...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z MODEL DATA. SNOW
RATIOS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE ARE RUNNING NEAR 10 TO
1 HERE AT THE AIRPORT AS OF 5 AM WITH 0.8" OF SNOW TO 0.08" OF
WATER. THE COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACRS THE NORTHERN CPV IS
RESULTING IN FINER FLAKES...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE THRU THE DAY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF STORM
IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL CRNT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8 INCHES
CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING
STRONG LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY
SLOT...WHICH SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE
NOTICED AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H
CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH
1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED RH/LIFT FROM S/W
ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN BAND. THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF PRECIP. THIS
IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z THIS
MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H
CIRCULATION. THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST
AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING
BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH
CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT IN STORM TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50 TO 0.75"
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM 2 TO
5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
WL QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES
DEVELOPING AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW
PACK WL RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER
VALLEYS. WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR
THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT
WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS
ACRS THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
1/2SM AND 1SM MUCH OF THE DAY WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT
TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
615 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 100% ENTIRE CWA AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DWPTS BASED
ON CRNT OBS. CRNT SHOWS LIGHT SNOW ACRS OUR FA WITH BANDS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT WITH VIS BLW 1/2SM ATTM.
EXPECT THESE BANDS TO MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ZNS THRU
MIDDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL MODERATE
BANDS OF SNOW WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN. THESE WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
INTO THE EVENING HRS. OVERALL...FCST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY
GOOD...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z MODEL DATA. SNOW
RATIOS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE ARE RUNNING NEAR 10 TO
1 HERE AT THE AIRPORT AS OF 5 AM WITH 0.8" OF SNOW TO 0.08" OF
WATER. THE COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACRS THE NORTHERN CPV IS
RESULTING IN FINER FLAKES...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE THRU THE DAY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF STORM
IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL CRNT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8 INCHES
CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING STRONG
LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT...WHICH
SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE NOTICED AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO
COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH 1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA
LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED
RH/LIFT FROM S/W ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN
BAND. THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF
PRECIP. THIS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z
THIS MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H CIRCULATION.
THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN
TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND
EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM
WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT
IN STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50
TO 0.75" CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY
NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW WL
QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES DEVELOPING
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW PACK WL
RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER VALLEYS.
WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR THURS
INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT WITH A
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 10/11Z AT ALL TAF SITES...THEN SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE DOWN TO
LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR/IFR SHOULD START AROUND 15/16Z TODAY.
EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 1SM AFTER 15Z WITH
CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST
AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL
SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1002 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.UPDATE...
A COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS DESPITE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP QUITE
NICELY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC HAS IT ANALYZED STRONGER
THAN ANY OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY
HAVE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT FOR TOMORROW. THESE CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW ON THURSDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
MVFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE OVER ALL AREA AIRPORTS TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
INDICATED THAT CIGS SHOULD CLEAR THE DFW AREA BY 16Z...HOWEVER
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DID SHOW SOME RAGGED REDEVELOPMENT ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK...SO KEPT CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH
18Z FOR NOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 2
KFT...LIMITING THE IMPACT TO OPERATIONS TO SOME DEGREE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH ALL DAY TODAY AT 15 TO
20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE
MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF HIGH MVFR STRATUS BY THE MID-MORNING
HOURS OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE DFW AREA AS A STRONG...BUT
FAST MOVING...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH
MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
METROPLEX AS LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH CAUSES THE ATMOSPHERE TO
SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN. WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE KDFW
TAF FOR TOMORROW. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AT AREA
AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014/
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED THE REGION AND WILL SURGE THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL GLIDE SOUTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
TONIGHT...AND OUR NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED
OVERNIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PLUNGING INTO THE TEENS...
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CISCO AND WEATHERFORD...TO
MCKINNEY AND BONHAM. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
DESPITE BEING STRONGLY SHEARED...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
STILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURE...GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN TIMING (AS WELL AS PLACEMENT). BUT THE AMOUNT OF
FORCING VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS...
AND THUS QPF OUTPUT RUNS THE GAMUT. REGARDLESS...THE LIFT IS MORE
THAN ADEQUATE TO SATURATE A DEEP LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...AND WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER TO OVERCOME...IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS OF AN IMPEDIMENT
THAN IS TYPICAL WITH SUCH A PATTERN. WITH SNOW-PRODUCTION PROCESSES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND WILL BE SNOW.
THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF THE AMOUNT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...BUT THE NEW 06Z RUN HAS DISPLACED ITS
PERFECT-PROG PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS...
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF (THOUGH THE LATTER HAS LESSER
AMOUNTS). WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE IMPULSE...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN AREAS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
RED RIVER TO NEAR 30 PERCENT BUT MAINTAINED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER ONE INCH. ADDED A BUFFER ZONE OF FLURRIES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH INCLUDES THE METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE FAR FROM WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF AMOUNTS ARE MORE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED FROM THEIR MINIMUM IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME LOW-
LYING LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS (DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER). A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH
LITTLE TIME FOR SUFFICIENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT...IT
WILL BE LIFTING A DRIER COLUMN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO RE-INTRODUCE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 28 17 28 19 35 / 0 10 10 5 10
WACO, TX 33 20 36 20 39 / 0 10 10 5 10
PARIS, TX 28 15 27 18 36 / 0 10 30 10 10
DENTON, TX 26 16 25 16 34 / 0 10 20 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 28 16 27 17 34 / 0 10 20 5 10
DALLAS, TX 28 17 29 20 37 / 0 10 10 5 10
TERRELL, TX 32 18 30 19 37 / 0 10 10 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 32 21 34 22 38 / 0 5 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 34 21 35 21 39 / 0 5 10 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 26 14 26 15 35 / 0 10 10 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091>094-100>104-115>117-129-130.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
520 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WAS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WAS TRYING TO EDGE NORTH TO ALONG THE I-90.
DRY AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH WAS KEEPING THE SNOW FROM MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE NORTH.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY BECOMING ALL
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF. BITTERLY COLD AIR
PUSHES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION. THE OVERNIGHT LOW
FORECAST IS A BIT CHALLENGING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER OVER THESE AREAS
INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND MAY
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY TANKING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUDS LINGER. TEMPERATURES
OVER THESE AREA MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND EVENTUALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS
THE COLDER AIR BUILDS IN AND CLOUDS LIFT OFF TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY STARTING FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING STARTING AT 9 PM OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
BITTERLY COLD WINDS CHILLS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD DAY IS
IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
HOVERING RIGHT AROUND -20 C. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...PRODUCING WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO POSSIBLY
-30. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GEM AND GFS PRODUCE A SWATCH OF
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES...WITH
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A LAYER NEARLY 300
TO 350 MB DEEP. THE ECMWF OFFERS A SOLUTION THAT IS FURTHER SOUTH
AND WOULD TAKE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT IN THE
GUIDANCE BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED SNOW CHANCES INTO THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER COLD SHOT IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
-20 TO -22 C RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN ON
THE COLD SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO
OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. THE SAME STORY FOR
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS THE HIGHER RETURNS ARE MAKING SLOW STEADY
PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. THE 05.07Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SNOW THIS MORNING AND SUGGESTS BOTH
SITES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OCCURRING BEFORE 15Z.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND UP STREAM OBSERVATIONS...SHOWED KRST
COMING UP TO VFR AROUND 13Z AND KLSE AT 14Z. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR
CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY ARE REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT WITH THE CONTINUED PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTH...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONDITIONS ONCE
THE SNOW ENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL BACK
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. NOT EXPECTING THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS AND ANY CLEARING TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 06.06Z AND
SINCE THE FORECAST IS ALREADY VFR...DID NOT INCLUDE ANOTHER TIME
GROUP SO SHOW THIS OCCURRING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ079-088-096.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR IAZ011-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
503 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED
EAST INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO THE MINUS
TEENS TO MINUS 20S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS HAVE BECOME
DANGEROUSLY COLD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 3 AM OBS AT THE
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS RANGED FROM 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...SO WENT AHEAD
AND UPGRADED TO A WIND CHILL WARNING HERE AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
UNCHANGED. THE WIND CHILL WARNING ISSUED ON THE WYOMING SIDE WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON AS GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A SLOW
WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGH THE MORNING.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR...SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE ACROSS WYOMING THROUGH SUNRISE. PATCHY
FOG AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THIS BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS AS WELL. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY TO BARELY
MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVERHEAD IN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH MEAGER MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS
OBS. COULD SEE TANKING TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING THO AS SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ONCE THE
CURRENT SUITE ENDS THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AND WILL HELP PUSH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG FOR
THURSDAY IN THIS WAA PATTERN WITH WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING BREEZY
IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OUT WEST.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS THE
ARCTIC FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD AND A DEEPER FETCH OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DO SHOW SOME VARIABILITY
WITH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL ACCUMULATE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE MORE LIKELY TREND BEING CONTINUAL LIGHT SNOW
RATES THROUGH THIS TIME WITH FINER ICE CRYSTALS DUE TO THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. THEREFORE ACCUMULATIONS IN GENERAL DO NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM WITH SNOW CHANCES
JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY.
STARTING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
KEEP AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THIS BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA
AND BECOME QUITE STRONG LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. GFS SHOWING 700MB WINDS 45 TO 50KTS WITH THE 700MB CRAIG TO
CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT AROUND 90 METERS. COULD BE DEALING WITH A
HIGH WIND EVENT FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY LATE MORNING. GFS
WINDS INCREASE TO 60KTS 12Z SATURDAY. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED BLOWING
SNOW TO THE FORECAST WITH THESE STRONG WINDS.
STRONG JET REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THEY DO NOT LOOK LIKE
STRONG SYSTEMS...JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. PROBABLY GOING TO NEED SOME WINTER
HEADLINES FOR THEM. STRONGEST OF THE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO.
LATEST ECMWF HAS THIS LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND IS
MORE BULLISH ON QPF. IF THIS SOLUTION HLDS TRUE...WE WOULD
DEFINITELY NEED WINTER HEADLINES FOR THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 0455 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
GETTING SOME FOG DEVELOPING AROUND CHEYENNE THIS MORNING THAT WILL
MOST LIKELY DECREASE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR A COUPLE HOURS
THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR FORECAST DID VERY WELL ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT...SO WENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE. IT BRINGS IFR CONDITIONS
BACK INTO THE AREA LATE MORNING AND BECOMES WIDESPREAD AS OUR NEXT
SNOW EVENT GETS GOING FOR KCYS...KLAR AND KRWL LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 500 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK DUE TO A PERSISTENT SNOW PACK
AND CHANCES FOR MORE SNOWFALL INTO THIS WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIR WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ101-102-104>111-
115>119.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A STRONGER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN AZ.
CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING VIRGA/SPRINKLES HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA. THIS CREATED AN AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THAT QUICKLY FILLED IN THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE IN THIS AREA...THOUGH MODEST FORCING FOR
UVM HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED VORT MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING TREND TO FOLLOW FOR THIS
EVENING.
FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BE ANOTHER WEAK
PACIFIC TROUGH FOR THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE SUITE OF LOCAL HI-RES WRFS SUGGEST THAT
SPRINKLES MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS POINT TO NORTHERN AZ FOR THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE AND SHARP HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND STAY THERE THROUGH TUESDAY DESPITE A PASSING SHORT
WAVE MONDAY. WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR...LOW TEMPS WILL BE AT
THEIR COOLEST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH CLEARING OF LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...NOT AS
INTENSE OF A SYSTEM AS FIRST THOUGHT A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT
NONETHELESS IT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD SEE
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN ACROSS THE
DESERTS OF THE PHOENIX AREA. ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS WOULD BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TOTAL. FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS STRONG DRY ADVECTION
THAT WAS FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY. ELEVATED
HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...NOTHING
TOO STRONG EVEN WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY...TYPICAL DIURNAL
DRAINAGE/UPSLOPE PATTERNS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY AND
ISOLATED SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A STRONGER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS
ISOLATED RETURNS IN THE 5 TO 15 DBZ RANGE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS FALLING IS LIKELY EVAPORATING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND EVEN A LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY NEAR SCOTTSDALE AND FOUNTAIN HILLS.
HI-RES WRFS STILL INDICATE THAT MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WILL TAKE PLACE A BIT
FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ AND MARICOPA
COUNTIES. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...SKY AND QPF ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE AFTERNOON PRECIP.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING MORE QPF WITH THIS ONE THAN THE ONE FOR
TODAY AND NOW THE GFS AGREES BUT WITH LOWER AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE THE
NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON THE DEPTH OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERALL...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...LESS SO OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE AND PRECEDING
SHORT WAVES LEAVING BEHIND SOME MOISTURE IT WILL BE A LITTLE EASIER
TO PRODUCE PRECIP SLIGHT CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY START THURSDAY
MORNING...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE BIT FASTER WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE
AND THUS MODIFIED THE POPS TO START EARLIER AND EXIT SOONER. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DIP BELOW 5500 FEET BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 5000
FEET OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH VERY MODEST PRECIP AND RELATIVELY
HIGH SNOW LEVELS...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW TO MENTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND STAY THERE THROUGH TUESDAY DESPITE A PASSING SHORT
WAVE MONDAY. WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR...LOW TEMPS WILL BE AT
THEIR COOLEST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH CLEARING OF LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...NOT AS
INTENSE OF A SYSTEM AS FIRST THOUGHT A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT
NONETHELESS IT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD SEE
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN ACROSS THE
DESERTS OF THE PHOENIX AREA. ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS WOULD BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TOTAL. FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS STRONG DRY ADVECTION
THAT WAS FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY. ELEVATED
HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...NOTHING
TOO STRONG EVEN WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY...TYPICAL DIURNAL
DRAINAGE/UPSLOPE PATTERNS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY AND
ISOLATED SPRINKLES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A STRONGER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS
ISOLATED RETURNS IN THE 5 TO 15 DBZ RANGE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS FALLING IS LIKELY EVAPORATING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND EVEN A LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY NEAR SCOTTSDALE AND FOUNTAIN HILLS.
HI-RES WRFS STILL INDICATE THAT MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WILL TAKE PLACE A BIT
FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ AND MARICOPA
COUNTIES. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...SKY AND QPF ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE AFTERNOON PRECIP.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING MORE QPF WITH THIS ONE THAN THE ONE FOR
TODAY AND NOW THE GFS AGREES BUT WITH LOWER AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE THE
NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON THE DEPTH OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERALL...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...LESS SO OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE AND PRECEDING
SHORT WAVES LEAVING BEHIND SOME MOISTURE IT WILL BE A LITTLE EASIER
TO PRODUCE PRECIP SLIGHT CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY START THURSDAY
MORNING...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE BIT FASTER WITH THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE
AND THUS MODIFIED THE POPS TO START EARLIER AND EXIT SOONER. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DIP BELOW 5500 FEET BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 5000
FEET OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH VERY MODEST PRECIP AND RELATIVELY
HIGH SNOW LEVELS...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW TO MENTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND STAY THERE THROUGH TUESDAY DESPITE A PASSING SHORT
WAVE MONDAY. WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR...LOW TEMPS WILL BE AT
THEIR COOLEST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD 6-8KFT CIGS THROUGH APPROX 18Z...WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AT ANY
OF THE TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOME VIRGA OR A SPRINKLE AT WORST. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CIGS AROUND 12KFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
AFTER 18Z. PRECIP NOT EXPECTED ANY EITHER TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...NOT AS
INTENSE OF A SYSTEM AS FIRST THOUGHT A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT
NONETHELESS IT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD SEE
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN ACROSS THE
DESERTS OF THE PHOENIX AREA. ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS WOULD BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TOTAL. FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS STRONG DRY ADVECTION
THAT WAS FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY. ELEVATED
HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR WINDS...NOTHING
TOO STRONG EVEN WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY...TYPICAL DIURNAL
DRAINAGE/UPSLOPE PATTERNS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1008 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
925 AM CST
CHALLENGING MORNING AS DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR PITTSBURGH AND THE TRAILING
HIGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS MORNING WITH MANY SHORELINE SITES REPORTING GUSTS AROUND
35 KT. THIS IS RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS RIGHT ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP UP THE
WISCONSIN SHORE AS LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES TAKE OVER AND A WELL
ORGANIZED BAND OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW IS DEVELOPING AND
WORKING DOWN THE SOUTHEAST WI SHORELINE AND DEVELOPING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NE ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY AROUND
TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE AS
THE CONVERGENCE BAND PIVOTS EASTWARD. THIS IS KEY IN THAT THIS
WILL LIKELY BE WHAT IT TAKES FOR WINDS ALONG THE LAKEFRONT TO
DIMINISH BUT ALSO ELIMINATE THE OPEN FETCH OF BLOWING SNOW OFF THE
EXPANSIVE ICE PACK ON THE LAKE. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND. CURRENT TRENDS
SHOW IT MOVING STEADILY SO RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA
LOOKS SHORT BUT SNOW INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH...RESULTING IN
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR AREAS IT PASSES
OVER.
HAVE HAD EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION REGARDING HEADLINES FOR LAKESHORE
AREAS. HAVE DECIDED TO SPLIT LAKE/COOK/LAKE/PORTER AND EXTEND THE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 2 PM.WHICH MAY BE A
LITTLE LONG...WHILE LEAVING THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN UNTIL NOON
AND LEAVING THE WARNING AS-IS. IN TERMS OF THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE 30-35 AND OCCASIONALLY 40 MPH
GUSTS IS VERY LIMITED BASED ON REPORTS AND LAKESHORE OBS VS. INLAND
OBS...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25 AND OCCASIONALLY 30 MPH ARE OCCURRING
INLAND. WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
OR SO AND CONFINED TO THE LAKEFRONT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY VS. ANY KIND OF UPGRADE. WINDS ONSHORE ARE BEGINNING TO
TURN NORTHERLY AND EASE UP ON SPEED WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION
EASTWARD TO THE LAKEFRONT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE LATE THIS
MORNING. THE APPROACHING SNOW BAND WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IN A SHORT TIME BUT WITH THE CONVERGENCE PASSING
OVERHEAD WINDS MAY SHIFT NNW AND EASE IN SPEED AS THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ARRIVES. TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS AND COOK
COUNTY ARE ALREADY AROUND 6 INCHES...IN MORE THAN THE 12 HOUR
WARNING CRITERIA...BUT WILL LIKELY PUSH 8 INCHES IN SPOTS BY
MIDDAY. WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND THE EXTENT OF THE
WORST CONDITIONS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER A FEW HOUR PERIOD
FELT THAT CONTINUING THE ADVISORY WOULD BE THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WITH UPDATED WORDING FOR LAKEFRONT AREAS.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRST AND FOREMOST ON THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT HAS BROUGHT NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE TO AT LEAST A PART OF 35 OF 50 STATES. AS THIS
MASSIVE SYSTEM EXITS EAST WE WILL THEN TURN ATTENTION TO A ONCE
AGAIN VERY COLD PATTERN FOR FEBRUARY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING IS CENTERED ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENTS. NORMALLY WHEN UNDER SUCH A PATH AND UPPER FORCING
WITHIN A WINTER STORM...SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...BUT AS
EXPECTED THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING YESTERDAY STRUGGLED TO SATURATE
AND A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DID NOT HAVE MUCH FOR EFFICIENT
SNOW THROUGH MID-EVE. BUT NOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BEST
DYNAMICS...THE CURRENT COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO SPORADIC HEAVY SNOW...WITH LIKELY
THE BETTER RATES EASING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF MESOSCALE BANDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTED THROUGH THAT BEST TIME...INCLUDING OVER
CHICAGO...SUPPORTING TEMPORARY RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...AS
EVIDENCED BY AT TIMES ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY AND EARLIER
REPORTS. SO CERTAINLY ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY MID-LATE MORNING BUT LIKELY STILL BE
OCCURRING IN MANY EASTERN AREAS...AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS OF
SNOW STILL FALLING ALL THE WAY BACK TO WESTERN IA.
THERE HAS BEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BASED ON RADAR
DATA INTO ALL OUR LAKE COUNTIES...BUT ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY IL AND
COOK COUNTY. THE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL SLOWLY POINT MORE TOWARD NW IN BY LATE MORNING. SOME HIGHER
TOTALS WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS COVERED IN THE
ADVISORY. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS JUST ABOVE SIX
INCHES BASED ON RADAR PERSISTENCE SEEN OVERNIGHT...NAMELY IN
NORTHERN COOK/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VERY LIKELY NOT END UP IN A NICE NORTH
TO SOUTH SWATH...BUT A BROAD 3-6 SHOULD SPEAK FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING...AND THEN AGAIN AS MENTIONED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE
PERSISTENT BANDING FURTHER NORTH. FOR HEADLINES...THE ONLY CHANGE
WAS TO DOWNGRADE LIVINGSTON COUNTY BASED ON SNOWFALL NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SIX INCHES AND RATES OF SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME DRY SLOT IMPINGEMENT. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW AND OBSERVED SOME ON IDOT WEBCAMS
SO FEEL COMFORTABLE THAT THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN OPEN AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST IN
THOUGH THE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...AND WITH THE DEEP
SYNOPTIC SATURATION AND EXISTING FORCING WORKING EAST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT INTENSE. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WITH
BLOWING SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING IN OPEN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE
MOST FRESH SNOW. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING
WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS ADVECTION
OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS A POTENT 1047MB HIGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS FROM THE
ROCKIES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER DARK
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WHILE NOT AS GREAT OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPS IN ADVECTION SCHEMES...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVE AND MAYBE INTO OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A BETTER
WESTERLY PUSH IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE
GONE MORE TOWARD CLEAR THEN WITH DROPPING TEMPS IN THAT TIME. FRI
MORNING TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED IN ALL OUTLYING AREAS IF
THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...WITH POSSIBLY A GOOD PART OF THE CHICAGO
METRO TOO. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL IL ON THIS SHIFT...BUT WITH CLOUD
CHALLENGES AND AMPLE CURRENT HEADLINES OPTED TO ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT A BETTER CHANCE TO ASSESS PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOWEST
WIND CHILLS.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE...WITH
THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS INDICATING ROCKFORD REMAINING
BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY! NOT SOLD THAT IT WILL BE THAT COLD...BUT
CERTAINLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ARE VERY PROBABLE...POSSIBLY
COMPROMISING RECORD COLD HIGHS. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE CLEARING CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER CHANNELED VORTICITY
WITHIN SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IF A PERSISTENT CLEAR SKY THROUGH
THU NIGHT...THEN THAT COULD RESULT IN VERY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS GIVEN THE 925MB VALUES. RIGHT NOW THAT IS
MOST FAVORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO APPEAR ACTIVE WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...ALMOST CLIPPER-LIKE...CROSSING THE REGION SAT/SAT
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO BOOST POPS DURING THIS
TIME ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS IN THIS WAVE BEING STRONGER AND HAVING FOCUSED
FORCING. CERTAINLY PLACEMENT AND EVEN TIMING ISSUES LIKELY EXIST
WITH WHAT WILL PAN OUT...BUT BELIEVED THE MODEL BLEND IN POPS
SEEMED TOO LOW. PLUS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS WISE WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERY 72 HOURS HAVING HAPPENED FOR ABOUT TWO
MONTHS NOW...SO SEE NO REASON TO DOWNPLAY AN AGREED POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD INTO THE START OF THE SECOND
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
600 AM CST
RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6TH:
CHICAGO: 4 DEGREES (1982)
ROCKFORD: 3 DEGREES (1982)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN TAPERING OFF TO SCT FLURRIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
* PREVAILING IFR VIS THROUGH AROUND NOON. OCNL BURSTS OF LIFR VIS
POSSIBLE.
* GUSTY NNE WINDS BACKING TO THE NNW THIS AFTERNOON.
* PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. BRIEF
PERIODS IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. FORCING REALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER AROUND 13-14Z FOR
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
SNOW GROWTH ZONE COMBINED WITH SOME VERY MODEST ASCENT IN THE WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW TENTHS. SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR OR OUR LOCAL 8KM WRF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED OR BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LATER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT AND QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE FLUX.
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTS ALREADY THIS MORNING ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THROUGH TODAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS THIS MORNING...LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING END OF SNOWFALL.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
WIND DIRECTION...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND
DIRECTION SHIFTING TO NNWLY.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHC OF SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BACKING
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT...WHILE A STRONGER LOW
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN STATES THEN LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-
ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL NOON
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 2 PM WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 2 PM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL STILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO KEPT THINGS SIMPLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GET AND HOW
COLD WIND CHILL READINGS DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER
CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AT THIS
TIME. EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF AND GFS DID THE BEST ON THE JET THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS DID FINE
WITH THE SREF AND NAM THE WORST WHILE THE REMAINING OUTPUT WAS ABOUT
THE SAME. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND SREF
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST
HALF OF THE NIGHT THIS MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH AND AFFECTS MORE OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN HALF MORE UNDER
SUBSIDENCE.
FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO
PROVIDE LIFT. WHEN THE AIR MASS GETS THIS COLD THE MODELS TEND TO
OVERPRODUCE CLOUD COVER SO AM REALLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH THERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY BUT COULD
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EVENING SHIFT HAD TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE EAST OF THAT. THOSE
ARE IN AFFECT UNTIL 18Z. CURRENTLY THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY ARE DOING WELL AND WILL NOT CHANGE. CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS PARAMOUNT TO WHAT KIND OF WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHT AND HOW LONG TO MAKE IT. PER REASONING GIVEN...MODELS
ARE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER RIGHT NOW WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. CURRENTLY THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE RAP ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FIELD WELL...WHICH IS
SCARY.
PER THAT PLUS SNOWFIELD...VERY COLD AIR MASS AND START TO THE DAY...
AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. IF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST
FOR KGLD IS -1 WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR THE DAY. AS
STATED ABOVE...CURRENT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...
IF CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST PANS OUT...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS THIS FURTHER.
DURING THE NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTING A SATURATED AIR MASS FROM 700
MB DOWN WHICH IS IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED THAT ACCORDINGLY. MODELS FORECASTING
VERY COLD MINS AS SURFACE RIDGE COMES IN DURING THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING...
CONTINUED THE VERY COLD FORECAST BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE. AS RESULT...ANOTHER WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED
WITH ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AND THE
COMPLEXITY/UNCERTAINTY OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS AFTER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT IS DONE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP AT JET LEVEL WITH A
COUPLE OF MODELS SHOWING THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT AND A COUPLE OF THEM
IN THE RIGHT REAR THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
REMAIN AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE
DEPTH OF SATURATED AIR MASS DECREASES BUT IT STILL IS IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE. SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS...CLOUD COVER AND A SNOWFIELD
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY COLD ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER. DURING THE NIGHT MODELS REDEVELOP OR KEEP A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MOISTURE GETS
MUCH MORE SHALLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME WILL
CONFINE THE FLURRIES TO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WARMS WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ONLY
THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LATE IN THE NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER JET STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER WITH ALL THE MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 700 MB
AND MAYBE SOME VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY END UP BEING
STRATUS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM UP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH. BECAUSE OF THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER...
SNOW FIELD...AND MODELS TENDENCY TO SCOUR OUT ARCTIC AIR TOO FAST...
WENT TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SMALL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP. TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE MONDAY AS LESS DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 1000-500MB MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING SOME
PRECIP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ONCE THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE
TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS MILD.
LIGHT WIND SHIFTS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DIRECTION
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH. KGLD WILL EXPERIENCE A SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT AGREED FROM
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MODEL FORECASTS MAY BE NOT HANDLING CLOUD/FOG
FORECAST WELL DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...LEFT OUT THE FOG FOR
NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1028 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO EXPAND THE WIND CHILL WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GET AND HOW
COLD WIND CHILL READINGS DROP. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND
RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER
CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AT THIS
TIME. EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF AND GFS DID THE BEST ON THE JET THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS DID FINE
WITH THE SREF AND NAM THE WORST WHILE THE REMAINING OUTPUT WAS ABOUT
THE SAME. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND SREF
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST
HALF OF THE NIGHT THIS MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH AND AFFECTS MORE OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN HALF MORE UNDER
SUBSIDENCE.
FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO
PROVIDE LIFT. WHEN THE AIR MASS GETS THIS COLD THE MODELS TEND TO
OVERPRODUCE CLOUD COVER SO AM REALLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH THERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY BUT COULD
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EVENING SHIFT HAD TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE EAST OF THAT. THOSE
ARE IN AFFECT UNTIL 18Z. CURRENTLY THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY ARE DOING WELL AND WILL NOT CHANGE. CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS PARAMOUNT TO WHAT KIND OF WIND
CHILL HIGHLIGHT AND HOW LONG TO MAKE IT. PER REASONING GIVEN...MODELS
ARE OVERDOING THE CLOUD COVER RIGHT NOW WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. CURRENTLY THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE RAP ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FIELD WELL...WHICH IS
SCARY.
PER THAT PLUS SNOWFIELD...VERY COLD AIR MASS AND START TO THE DAY...
AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. IF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST
FOR KGLD IS -1 WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR THE DAY. AS
STATED ABOVE...CURRENT WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...
IF CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST PANS OUT...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS THIS FURTHER.
DURING THE NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACTING A SATURATED AIR MASS FROM 700
MB DOWN WHICH IS IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED THAT ACCORDINGLY. MODELS FORECASTING
VERY COLD MINS AS SURFACE RIDGE COMES IN DURING THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING...
CONTINUED THE VERY COLD FORECAST BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE. AS RESULT...ANOTHER WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED
WITH ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT AND THE
COMPLEXITY/UNCERTAINTY OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE DAY SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS AFTER THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT IS DONE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP AT JET LEVEL WITH A
COUPLE OF MODELS SHOWING THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT AND A COUPLE OF THEM
IN THE RIGHT REAR THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
REMAIN AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE
DEPTH OF SATURATED AIR MASS DECREASES BUT IT STILL IS IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE. SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS...CLOUD COVER AND A SNOWFIELD
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY COLD ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER. DURING THE NIGHT MODELS REDEVELOP OR KEEP A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MOISTURE GETS
MUCH MORE SHALLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME WILL
CONFINE THE FLURRIES TO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET REMAINS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WARMS WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH ONLY
THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LATE IN THE NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER JET STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER WITH ALL THE MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 700 MB
AND MAYBE SOME VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY END UP BEING
STRATUS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM UP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH. BECAUSE OF THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER...
SNOW FIELD...AND MODELS TENDENCY TO SCOUR OUT ARCTIC AIR TOO FAST...
WENT TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SMALL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP. TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE MONDAY AS LESS DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 1000-500MB MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR RECEIVING SOME
PRECIP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ONCE THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST WED FEB 5 2014
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE
TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS MILD.
LIGHT WIND SHIFTS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DIRECTION
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH. KGLD WILL EXPERIENCE A SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT AGREED FROM
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MODEL FORECASTS MAY BE NOT HANDLING CLOUD/FOG
FORECAST WELL DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...LEFT OUT THE FOG FOR
NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
410 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BASED ON CURRENT BANDING OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THIS FORMED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OVER THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS IN REGION OF GOOD FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. WILL HAVE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST FOR ALL
AREAS...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDED PRECIP.
BACK EDGE TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TO MAINE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. NORMALLY...PRECIPITATION WOULD SHUT OFF QUICK THAN THIS AS
DOWNSLOPING WOULD NORMALLY KICK IN WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF CAPE
COD THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NORTH...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE COASTLINE.
SNOW TOTALS...WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO OUR
EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE. POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ON RADAR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WILL MOST LIKELY CALL THE TOP AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 8-12 INCH
RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A COULD TOWNS WITH LOCALLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BAND OF SNOW EARLIER TODAY HELPED THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS PICK UP SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
LATEST PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO BRING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW
FOR PORTLAND MAINE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT
WE HAVE HAD A ONE FOOT SNOWSTORM...AND WE ONLY AVERAGE A ONE FOOT
SNOWSTORM ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. HERE ARE THE DATES FOR THIS
YEAR...
12/14-15/13...12.4 INCHES
1/1-2/14......11.9 INCHES (JUST MISSED!)
2/5/14........???? INCHES (MISSED AGAIN?)
OTHERWISE...LATEST HRRR HAS THE PRECIP ENDING AROUND 00Z IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND BY 20Z IN MAINE. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THERAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN IMPULSE WILL
RACE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BEFORE EXITING THE
MID ATLANTIC IN THE LATE SUNDAY - EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
ITS EVENTUAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THIS SYSTEM...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET HERE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
LONG TERM...
SUN PM - MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SCAS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...
FRI PM - SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-
008-012-018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ013-
014-019>022-024>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
JC/ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
248 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BACK EDGE TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TO MAINE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. NORMALLY...PRECIPITATION WOULD SHUT OFF QUICK THAN THIS AS
DOWNSLOPING WOULD NORMALLY KICK IN WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF CAPE
COD THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NORTH...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE COASTLINE.
SNOW TOTALS...WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO OUR
EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE. POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ON RADAR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WILL MOST LIKELY CALL THE TOP AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 8-12 INCH
RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A COULD TOWNS WITH LOCALLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BAND OF SNOW EARLIER TODAY HELPED THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS PICK UP SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
LATEST PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO BRING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW
FOR PORTLAND MAINE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT
WE HAVE HAD A ONE FOOT SNOWSTORM...AND WE ONLY AVERAGE A ONE FOOT
SNOWSTORM ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. HERE ARE THE DATES FOR THIS
YEAR...
12/14-15/13...12.4 INCHES
1/1-2/14......11.9 INCHES (JUST MISSED!)
2/5/14........???? INCHES (MISSED AGAIN?)
OTHERWISE...LATEST HRRR HAS THE PRECIP ENDING AROUND 00Z IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND BY 20Z IN MAINE. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THERAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN IMPULSE WILL
RACE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BEFORE EXITING THE
MID ATLANTIC IN THE LATE SUNDAY - EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
ITS EVENTUAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THIS SYSTEM...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET HERE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
LONG TERM...
SUN PM - MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SCAS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...
FRI PM - SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-
008-012-018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ013-
014-019>022-024>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
JC/ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
211 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BACK EDGE TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TO MAINE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. NORMALLY...PRECIPITATION WOULD SHUT OFF QUICK THAN THIS AS
DOWNSLOPING WOULD NORMALLY KICK IN WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF CAPE
COD THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NORTH...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE COASTLINE.
SNOW TOTALS...WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO OUR
EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE. POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ON RADAR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WILL MOST LIKELY CALL THE TOP AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 8-12 INCH
RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A COULD TOWNS WITH LOCALLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BAND OF SNOW EARLIER TODAY HELPED THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS PICK UP SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
LATEST PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO BRING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW
FOR PORTLAND MAINE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT
WE HAVE HAD A ONE FOOT SNOWSTORM...AND WE ONLY AVERAGE A ONE FOOT
SNOWSTORM ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. HERE ARE THE DATES FOR THIS
YEAR...
12/14-15/13...12.4 INCHES
1/1-2/14......11.9 INCHES (JUST MISSED!)
2/5/14........???? INCHES (MISSED AGAIN?)
OTHERWISE...LATEST HRRR HAS THE PRECIP ENDING AROUND 00Z IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND BY 20Z IN MAINE. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THERAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN IMPULSE WILL
RACE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BEFORE EXITING THE
MID ATLANTIC IN THE LATE SUNDAY - EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
ITS EVENTUAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THIS SYSTEM...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET HERE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
LONG TERM...
SUN PM - MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SCAS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...
FRI PM - SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-
008-018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ012>014-019>022-024>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
JC/ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
106 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE TODAY...AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE LOW TRACKS
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT...AND THE SNOW WINDS
DOWN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALSO...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO CROSS
NORTHERNMOST NEW YORK STATE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AS OF 18Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL RATES TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE NOW EXPECT 6 INCHES
OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IN NORTHERN COOS COUNTY...NORTHERN OXFORD AS
WELL AS NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY FROM THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE. THIS
NOW PLACES ALL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY.
LASTEST HRRR RUN SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL IN THIS REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 21Z.
LATEST PLUME DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO BRING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW
FOR PORTLAND MAINE. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR THAT
WE HAVE HAD A ONE FOOT SNOWSTORM...AND WE ONLY AVERAGE A ONE FOOT
SNOWSTORM ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. HERE ARE THE DATES FOR THIS YEAR...
12/14-15/13...12.4 INCHES
1/1-2/14......11.9 INCHES (JUST MISSED!)
2/5/14........??? INCHES
PREV DISC...SNOW HAS MOVED INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. AS THE SNOW BEGINS IT BECOMES QUITE INTENSE VERY QUICKLY.
MANY OBSERVATIONS RECORDED SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2
MILE WITHIN 20 MINUTES OF THE FIRST SNOW BEING OBSERVED. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BROAD
AREA OF SNOW... SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATION OF 0.07 LIQUID EQUIVALENT
IN ABOUT 40 MINUTES AT CONCORD. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE
WARM ADVECTION LIFTING MOVES EAST TODAY.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE AREA... BUT IT IS
FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN IN SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA BY 5-6 AM OR SO WITH SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD TO PORTLAND
BY 7-8 AM. ONCE SNOW BEGINS IT WILL BECOME HEAVY FAIRLY QUICKLY...
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR OR MORE LASTING THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AREA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MAINE. LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.
ALTHOUGH SOME BANDING MAY CAUSE LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES...
THE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS SPREAD ACROSS A WIDE AREA
ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD... THOUGH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND 850 MB
LIFTING. SNOW RATIOS WILL VARY FROM 12-1 TO 20-1 ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW COMES TO AN END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SNOW MAY
LAST A BIT LONGER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED AND THE WARNING/ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE OPTED NOT TO DO THIS
YET AND WAIT FOR RADAR TRENDS TODAY BEFORE MAKING THIS CALL.
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S BY THE COAST AND UPPER
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TENDS TO HOLD ONTO THE +PNA CONFIGURATION...
ALTHOUGH IT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED... AS REX BLOCKING OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. ALL IN ALL... THIS WILL
LEAD TO A TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW... AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL.
ONLY ISSUE WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME... AS 500
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. 00Z GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO
TREND TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM... AS SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES DO NOT PHASE. HAVE HELD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD AS MODELS SUGGESTING INVERTED TROUGHING COULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN FIRST WAVE AND MAIN 500MB TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SNOW BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES IN SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY.
VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY FALL TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES DURING THE
MORNING AT PORTLAND AND PORTSMOUTH AND POTENTIALLY AT CONCORD...
AUGUSTA... AND ROCKLAND AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE WEST.
LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-
008-018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ012>014-019>022-024>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
OVER SE NODAK THAT EXTENDS SE ACROSS MN. MOST ATMO /WITH RESPECT TO
ICE/ COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THIS WAVE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD...THOUGH VERY LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SRN MN TODAY. HAVE HANDLED THIS SNOW
WITH A HEALTHY FLURRY MENTION AND HAVE SLOWLY MARCHED THIS MENTION
EAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DOES LIKEWISE.
THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS LED TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HOW LOW
APPARENT TEMPS WILL GET. DOES LOOK LIKE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT EAST OF THE MS RIVER...AND IT IS HERE THAT THE LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WERE TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM...WHICH HOLDS LOWS TONIGHT OVER
WRN WI ABOVE ZERO. THIS RESULTED IN A GOOD 5 DEGREES OF WARMING OF
LOWS FOR WRN WI TONIGHT. WE SAW THE IMPACTS OF THIS CLOUD COVER OVER
WRN WI LAST NIGHT...WHEN CLOUD COVER PUT THE SKIDS ON TEMP DROPS
FROM EAU CLAIRE THROUGH RUSK COUNTIES...WHERE LOWS OVERNIGHT
REMAINED ABOVE ZERO. THE 05.12 NAM SHOWED THIS HAPPENING AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT AS LOW AS THEY ARE
TODAY...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A DROP TO GET BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT.
AS FOR THE WIND CHILL HEADLINE...UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON ENDED UP
HOLDING THE APPARENT TEMPS ABOVE THE -25 THRESHOLD FOR WRN WI...BUT
WITH THE PRODUCT ALREADY OUT...FELT THE CONFUSION THAT WOULD ENSUE
WITH CANCELING IT BEFORE WE GET TONIGHT WAS NOT WORTH IT. NOT TO
MENTION...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICK TONIGHT...THEN LOWS
AND APPARENT TEMPS WOULD BE CLOSER TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD.
FOR THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY...BUT
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO FORECAST HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY ARE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FROM WHAT WE SAW FOR TODAY. SO
WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...A GOOD 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
TRULY ARCTIC AIR FROM NORTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHWARD WILL BE IN PLACE
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE BIG STORM TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS MISSED US WITH ITS PRECIP PUNCH...BUT IT
CERTAINLY AFFECTED OUR WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
INDIRECTLY. FIRST GLANCE AT VISIBLE SATELLITE TODAY REVEALS A SOLID
SNOW PACK NOW EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IT WAS JUST A FEW DAYS AGO THAT OUR SOUTH DAKOTA
AND IOWA NEIGHBORS HAD VAST AREAS OF BARE GROUND...WHICH THIS TIME
OF YEAR BECOMES INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT AS THE SUN ANGLE QUICKLY
RISES. THE LOW ALBEDO OF THE BARE GROUND ALLOWED FOR THE SUNS
RADIATION TO BE EFFICIENTLY ABSORBED. WHAT THAT MEANT FOR US WAS A
SW WIND WOULD WARM THINGS UP RAPIDLY AT THE SURFACE AS THE WARM AIR
OVER THE BARE GROUND WOULD BE CARRIED INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WE
DID OBSERVE THIS AT TIMES IN JANUARY...AND EQUAL OR TOPPED 32
DEGREES AT MSP 8 TIMES. NOW...THE ENTIRE MIDWEST IS COVERED IN
SNOW...HENCE THE ALBEDO IS MUCH HIGHER AND THE SUNS RADIATION WILL
BE EFFICIENTLY REFLECTED RATHER THAN ABSORBED. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM US UP LIKE THEY DID IN JANUARY UNTIL THAT
SNOW PACK ERODES...MEANING ITS JUST GOING TO BE HARDER YET TO GET
WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WE DO HAVE A POTENTIAL SNOWFALL EVENT ON THE HORIZON FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. YESTERDAY...THE GFS BEGAN INDICATING A CLOSED
SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE GFS HAS NOT BACKED DOWN FROM THIS AND OTHER MODELS HAVE
BEGUN SHIFTING TO A SOLUTION MORE SIMILAR OF THE GFS. THE NAM NOW
IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THIS EVENT IS LOOKING MORE VIGOROUS AT
THIS POINT. FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA REALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG THETA E ADVECTION...DECENT
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD ADIABATIC OMEGA. AT THIS
POINT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 285K THETA SURFACE ALSO LOOKS STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI. THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN MN...SO WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY AT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE METRO. MOISTURE WILL BE A QUESTION
BUT GIVEN THE FORCING...THE DRY AIR SHOULD BE OVERCOME FRIDAY NIGHT
BY THE FALLING SNOW.
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH FILLS IN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
THE MAIN CONCERN THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL AN INDICATION
THAT A BRIEF WARM UP WILL OCCUR NEXT WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS REDEVELOPING LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BEYOND THAT
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
PAIR OF SHORTWAVES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE OVER SE NODAK AND NEAR
AXN HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT LIFT WITH OUR MOIST /WITH RESPECT TO
ICE/ ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE LOTS OF LIGHT SNOW. HAVE FOLLOWED OBS
TRENDS ALONG WITH RAP/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATIONS OF -SN TO
TIME -SN IN TAFS. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO CIG
HEIGHTS. MVFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO EXPAND RECENTLY AS THE RAP HAD
BEEN SHOWING...SO HAVE MVFR CIGS AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THEY WILL GO
AWAY. FOR NOW...STAYED CLOSE TO LAMP TIMING FOR GOING BACK TO VFR
CIGS...WHICH IS MORE OR LESS TIED TO WHEN THE -SN IS FORECAST TO
END AT A PARTICULAR SITE. CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST IS HIGH AND
ALSO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF
THE TAF...THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW LONG DO THE CIGS HANG
AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.
KMSP...MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW WILL BE WITH US THROUGH AT LEAST
22Z TO AS LATE AS 00Z...WITH FLURRIES LINGERING OUT TO AS LATE AS
3Z. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS AFTER FLURRIES END IN TERMS OF
CIGS WITH WHETHER MVFR CIGS GO AWAY WITH THE SNOW OR LINGER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR CONDS BY
THE TIME TRAFFIC RAMPS UP THU MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SN POSSIBLE. WINDS W AT 5KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>067-073>077-082>085-
091>093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ053-060>063-068>070-078.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE OCCLUDED REMNANTS OF THE
STORM WERE EVIDENT BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MN/WI...WITH
THE DEEPER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT LOCATED
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS BREAKING ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS
RIDGE LED TO A 1053MB SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING ALONG ALBERTA.
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS RELATIVELY NEUTRAL
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AS H850 TEMPS OF -20C WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -35F THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...AND
AS A RESULT HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THOUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THE QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THESE PARTS THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ACCOMPANY
SOUTHEASTWARD MIGRATING SURFACE RIDGES. THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK TO
THE SOUTH WILL ALSO EASE WITH TIME AS THESE RIDGES BUILD DEEPER
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO WILL ENSURE A VERY COLD FIRST HALF OF
FEBRUARY.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WITHIN THE GENERAL TRANQUIL PERIOD COMES LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE
SURFACE RIDGES...SO MOISTURE WILL BE A CONCERN. THE UPPER DYNAMICS
APPEAR IMPRESSIVE THOUGH WITH A SHARPENING TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ON
THE GFS. THE EC...GEM...AND NAM ARE A BIT WEAKER ALOFT...AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION. HOWEVER...EC AND GEM HAVE BEGUN
TO DISPLAY SOME QPF DESPITE NO DEFINED SURFACE LOW. THIS IS AN
IMPROVEMENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY
AGREEABLE...ALTHOUGH THE SPACIAL SPREAD IS A BIT HIGH. THEREFORE...
THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS SOME MERIT AND FELT THE NEED TO INCREASE
POPS WHILE SHIFTING THEM NORTH A BIT TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE ISSUES...BUT THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE A WAY OF SNEAKING UP ON FORECASTERS SO IT WILL BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEK
AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS CRASH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE SYSTEMS
APPEAR WEAK BUT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MILDER PATTERN IN A
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
PAIR OF SHORTWAVES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE OVER SE NODAK AND NEAR
AXN HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT LIFT WITH OUR MOIST /WITH RESPECT TO
ICE/ ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE LOTS OF LIGHT SNOW. HAVE FOLLOWED OBS
TRENDS ALONG WITH RAP/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATIONS OF -SN TO
TIME -SN IN TAFS. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO CIG
HEIGHTS. MVFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO EXPAND RECENTLY AS THE RAP HAD
BEEN SHOWING...SO HAVE MVFR CIGS AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THEY WILL GO
AWAY. FOR NOW...STAYED CLOSE TO LAMP TIMING FOR GOING BACK TO VFR
CIGS...WHICH IS MORE OR LESS TIED TO WHEN THE -SN IS FORECAST TO
END AT A PARTICULAR SITE. CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST IS HIGH AND
ALSO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF
THE TAF...THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW LONG DO THE CIGS HANG
AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.
KMSP...MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW WILL BE WITH US THROUGH AT LEAST
22Z TO AS LATE AS 00Z...WITH FLURRIES LINGERING OUT TO AS LATE AS
3Z. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS AFTER FLURRIES END IN TERMS OF
CIGS WITH WHETHER MVFR CIGS GO AWAY WITH THE SNOW OR LINGER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR CONDS BY
THE TIME TRAFFIC RAMPS UP THU MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SN POSSIBLE. WINDS W AT 5KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>067-073>077-082>085-
091>093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ053-060>063-068>070-078.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
142 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING -SN ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WITH THE BACK EDGE
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF KCDR TO KHYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING TIMING/PLACEMENT RATHER WELL...AND PUSHES THE -SN OUT
OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME...WIND CHILL INDICES
HAVE PLUMMETED TO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE. EXPECT VALUES TO REMAIN AS
SUCH THRU MID MORNING UNTIL WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND CHILL ADV UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF
TEMP RECOVERY AND WILL ON THE WHOLE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ALSO GOOD
AGREEMENT ADDITIONAL SN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS PART OF NEXT WEEK. FRI AFTN...GFS/CMC/ECM ALL
POINT TO SN DEVELOPING IN KS ASSOC WITH MID LYR FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...THEN EXPANDING NWD INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. COLD
AND DRY THEN UNTIL MONDAY WHEN NEXT SN CHANCE COMES. GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 700-500MB QG FORCING..THIS WOULD PLACE THE SW/SRN CWA
AT HIGHEST RISK FOR SN ACCUM THRU AT LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE WITH STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH A FEW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 12-18KTS AND
HIGHER GUSTS 20 TO 25KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 6KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
140 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING -SN ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION WITH THE BACK EDGE
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF KCDR TO KHYS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING TIMING/PLACEMENT RATHER WELL...AND PUSHES THE -SN OUT
OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME...WIND CHILL INDICES
HAVE PLUMMETED TO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE. EXPECT VALUES TO REMAIN AS
SUCH THRU MID MORNING UNTIL WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND CHILL ADV UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF
TEMP RECOVERY AND WILL ON THE WHOLE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ALSO GOOD
AGREEMENT ADDITIONAL SN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS PART OF NEXT WEEK. FRI AFTN...GFS/CMC/ECM ALL
POINT TO SN DEVELOPING IN KS ASSOC WITH MID LYR FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...THEN EXPANDING NWD INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. COLD
AND DRY THEN UNTIL MONDAY WHEN NEXT SN CHANCE COMES. GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 700-500MB QG FORCING..THIS WOULD PLACE THE SW/SRN CWA
AT HIGHEST RISK FOR SN ACCUM THRU AT LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE WITH STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH A FEW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 12-18KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS 20 TO 25KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 6KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1144 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
THE WINTER STORM THAT LIKELY BROUGHT GENERALLY 2-6 INCHES OF WIND-
SWEPT SNOW TO THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (HIGHEST SOUTH AND
EAST...LOWEST NORTH AND WEST) IS MAKING A STEADY DEPARTURE EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES TO TAKE
CENTER STAGE THESE NEXT FEW MORNINGS/NIGHTS. IN TERMS OF ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES THESE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ARE LOOKING LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN IN 3-4 YEARS...SEE
SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR EVIDENCE OF THIS PER GRAND ISLAND
DATA.
STARTING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED LINE OF
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES QUICKLY VACATING THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS SNOW HAS ENDED/MOVED OUT...WINDS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ON THE DECLINE FROM WEST-TO-EAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 111Z/5AM NOW RANGING FROM GENERALLY ONLY 10-15 MPH IN WESTERN
COUNTIES...TO 15-20 MPH/HIGHER GUSTS IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH
SOME LIMITED/MINOR...NEAR-GROUND BLOWING SNOW COULD STILL LINGER
THIS MORNING...THE VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS HAVE
ENDED...AND THUS EARLIER LET GO OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY/WARNING. HOWEVER...A CWA-WIDE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 17Z/11 AM TO COVER A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF -15 TO NEAR -20 VALUES. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE AREA ARE NOT
TECHNICALLY MEETING LOCAL CWA CRITERIA OF -20...MOST PLACES ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT NEIGHBORING
KS OFFICES UTILIZE A -15 CRITERIA. 11Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH PRESSURE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA
CURRENTLY AROUND 1038 MILLIBARS...BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 1051MB
IN CENTRAL MT. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CONFIRMS THAT THE
PRIMARY DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ZIPPED
WELL-EASTWARD TO THE IL/IN BORDER AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
ZERO AND -5 DEGREES...AND MAYBE COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS AS
WIDESPREAD CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS...OTHER THAN THE OBVIOUS WIND CHILL
CONCERNS YET THIS MORNING...THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
ACTUALLY TURNING OUT TO BE SKY COVER. AS IS SOMETIMES THE
CASE...EARLIER MODEL/GUIDANCE RUNS WERE APPARENTLY WAY TOO EAGER
TO HOLD ONTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TODAY...BUT A GLANCE AT
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS SUCH AS
FROM THE HRRR ARE NOW STRONGLY-SUGGESTIVE THAT THERE WILL BE QUITE
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN EARLIER-EXPECTED...CERTAINLY NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY DESPITE SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE
INCREASING SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. BOTTOM
LINE...SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL UPDATES TO SKY COVER GRIDS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUN...IT WILL STILL BE A VERY COLD DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF -20C. ALTHOUGH AM A BIT LEARY
THAT FORECAST HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY PROVE TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO
COLD GIVEN THE SUN...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
HIGHS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA CLIMBING NO HIGHER THAN 6-8 DEGREES.
AS A WHOLE...SUSTAINED NORTH BREEZES TODAY WILL AVERAGE SOMEWHERE
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH. EVEN AFTER THE WIND
CHILL HEADLINE EXPIRES...VERY COLD CHILL VALUES OF GENERALLY -5 TO
-12 WILL PERSIST EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS TODAY...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST.
TURNING TO TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PICTURE INVOLVES
CONTINUED...FAIRLY FLAT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST INTO TX...AND ALSO FOCUSED
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET TO THE EAST...IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HOWEVER...AM
EXPECTING ANY ASSOCIATED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO REMAIN AT A
COUNTY OR TWO WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ANY PRECIP MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL PROMOTE NEAR-CALM
TO LIGHT BREEZES ONLY UP TO AROUND 5 MPH BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.
OBVIOUSLY...IF SKIES WERE TO REMAIN CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY
IDEAL SETUP FOR A MAJOR TEMP CRASH GIVEN THE SNOW COVER.
HOWEVER...WITH MID CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE ON THE INCREASE...THINK
LOWS WILL PROBABLY FALL A BIT SHORT OF MAX-COLD POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. OVERALL...USED A GUIDANCE BLEND TO ONLY MAKE
MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE -6 TO -11
RANGE. AM A BIT CONCERNED THOUGH THAT LOWS MAY FALL A BIT FARTHER
THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THUS SUPPOSE SOME ISOLATED -15 READINGS ARE PROBABLY
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. NO
MATTER WHAT...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL NEED ISSUED TONIGHT...AS CURRENTLY HAVE CHILLS
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF -20 OR COLDER NORTHEAST OF A
LEXINGTON-HEBRON LINE. STRONGLY CONSIDERED ISSUING THIS WIND CHILL
HEADLINE ON THIS SHIFT...BUT GIVEN THAT ONE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
FOR THIS MORNING...AND THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING LOW TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS...WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFT TO
POTENTIALLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY AND WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
NO HUGE ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST AND WILL BE PRETTY MUCH A FORECAST
FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES.
WE WILL LIE WITHIN VERY PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL LOW-AMPLITUDE
FLOW...WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL NOT BE MOVING OUT
ANYTIME SOON AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE MUCH
OF OUR WEATHER.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL BRINGING A QUICK SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM. I
REDUCED ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO MERE FLURRIES AS
EACH OF THESE WAVES ARE VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE...AND FOCUSED MORE TO THE
SOUTH. A BIT MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL ARRIVE IN THE PLAINS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT PERHAPS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE
AREA. A FINGER OF THE UPPER JET STREAM MAY JUST MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HELP INDUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT OUR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE DRY...SO KEPT CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY.
BY MONDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS ADVERTISED AMONG ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL RUNS THAT SHOULD HIT THE ROCKIES WITH A POSITIVE TILT.
A SURFACE HIGH SHOULD HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME
RETURN FLOW...AND INCREASED MOISTURE...TO GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. ALSO...WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH WIND CHILL FOR NOT
ONLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. I GENERALLY USED
ENSEMBLE TRENDS FOR TEMPERATURES AND FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND INITIALIZED GRIDS AND PERFORMED MINOR VARIATIONS FROM THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT THE TERMINAL BY LATE EVENING AS THIS RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
OTHER THAN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER 06/06Z...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY. COULD SEE A FLURRY AT THE TERMINAL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING OR AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED
CIGS OR VSBYS NOT EXPECTED SO DID NOT HINT AT THIS IN CURRENT TAF.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE ARE LIKELY GETTING INTO A FEW OF THE COLDEST
DAYS/NIGHTS WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE IN TERMS OF ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE. HERE ARE A FEW TIDBITS ABOUT THE LAST TIME HIGHS/LOWS
WERE NEAR/BELOW OUR CURRENT FORECAST VALUES AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
DATA SITE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT:
- WEDNESDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE: 6 DEGREES
- THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 6 DEGREES
OR COLDER: FEB. 1, 2011 (6 DEGREES)
- THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN
5 DEGREES: JAN. 7, 2010 (3 DEGREES)
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURS MORNING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE: -9 DEGREES
- THE LAST TIME THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER
THAN -9 DEGREES: JAN. 23, 2011: (-10 DEGREES)
- THE LAST TIME THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER
THAN -15 DEGREES: JAN. 9, 2010: (-16 DEGREES)
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
229 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS AS OF 900 AM WAS TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD DATA AND
BLEND INTO LATEST RAP/LAMP GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPS
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO LEANED IN
THIS DIRECTION. MAINLY NOISE-LEVEL CHANGES HOWEVER AS FORECAST
PANNING OUT NICELY AT THIS POINT. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF STORM
IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL CRNT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8 INCHES
CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING
STRONG LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY
SLOT...WHICH SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE
NOTICED AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H
CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH
1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED RH/LIFT FROM S/W
ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN BAND. THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF PRECIP. THIS
IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z THIS
MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H
CIRCULATION. THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST
AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING
BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH
CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT IN STORM TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50 TO 0.75"
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM 2 TO
5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
WL QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES
DEVELOPING AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW
PACK WL RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER
VALLEYS. WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR
THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT
WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS
ACRS THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE PERIOD
ON SATURDAY WITH W TO SW FLOW POSSIBLY CREATING SOME LGT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...INTO THE SLV AND ADKS.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST SATURDAY
NGT...WITH AN UPPER LVL VORT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING CHC FOR SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HAVING FASTER TRACK...MOVES
THIS UPPER TROUGH EWD FASTER...DRYING THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
SUNDAY NGT.
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN COOL
NW FLOW. WEEKEND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO M20S WILL COOL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
TUESDAY NGT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPS. UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCES KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BRIEF BREAK IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITH A
RETURN OF SNOW WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL BRINGING IFR/LIFR VSBYS
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...ANY HEAVY BANDS
OF SNOW THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF VLIFR
CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS PRECIP SHIELD SLOWLY EXITS
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT KMSS/23Z...KSLK/00Z...CPV AND KRUT AT 02Z
AND KMPV AFTER 03Z. EXPECT PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 04Z
AND 09Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE N TO NE THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT MORE NNW
OVERNGT AND EVENTUALLY W-NW THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS
AND MVFR AT TIMES AT KSLK.
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR
REGION WITH CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
12Z MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1242 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS AS OF 900 AM WAS TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD DATA AND
BLEND INTO LATEST RAP/LAMP GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPS
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO LEANED IN
THIS DIRECTION. MAINLY NOISE-LEVEL CHANGES HOWEVER AS FORECAST
PANNING OUT NICELY AT THIS POINT. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF STORM
IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL CRNT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8 INCHES
CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING
STRONG LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY
SLOT...WHICH SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE
NOTICED AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H
CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH
1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED RH/LIFT FROM S/W
ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN BAND. THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF PRECIP. THIS
IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z THIS
MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H
CIRCULATION. THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST
AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING
BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH
CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT IN STORM TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50 TO 0.75"
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM 2 TO
5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
WL QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES
DEVELOPING AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW
PACK WL RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER
VALLEYS. WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR
THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT
WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS
ACRS THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BRIEF BREAK IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITH A
RETURN OF SNOW WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL BRINGING IFR/LIFR VSBYS
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...ANY HEAVY BANDS
OF SNOW THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF VLIFR
CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS PRECIP SHIELD SLOWLY EXITS
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT KMSS/23Z...KSLK/00Z...CPV AND KRUT AT 02Z
AND KMPV AFTER 03Z. EXPECT PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 04Z
AND 09Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE N TO NE THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT MORE NNW
OVERNGT AND EVENTUALLY W-NW THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS
AND MVFR AT TIMES AT KSLK.
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR
REGION WITH CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
12Z MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ003>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1148 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOW TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TODAY WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE TREACHEROUS AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF INTERSTATE 81. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STORM
SYSTEM MAY PASS NEARBY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIXED BAG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS AT MIDDAY WILL
RACE QUICKLY TO THE NE AND TAPER TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OF
SLEET AND SNOW /OR EVEN A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN/ BETWEEN 17-19Z AS
A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA...LEAVING A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD OF JUST SHALLOW/WARMER LOW CLOUDS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME SRN MICHIGAN WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE
ENE AND OUR FAR NWRN ZONES WITH ANOTHER ONE-FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
ADDITIONAL LIGHT-MDT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST RUC AND HRRR INDICATES THAT ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE INVOF KBFD AND POINTS WEST...WHILE NOTHING MORE THAN AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NCENT
MTNS.
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES...PLENTY OF STRATO CU WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL QPF THIS AFTERNOON.
LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS..AROUND 30 FROM KJST TO KUNV AND
KIPT...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FURTHER TO THE SE ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHSN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW BRIEF
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
1044MB HIGH SHOVES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AND EXPANDS
INTO THE REGION VEERING THE WIND TO THE N TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DIP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT IN THE NW...AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT
A JET SPEED MAX WILL ROLL THROUGH THE WRLY FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY
AND MAKE CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE FAR W. THE FORCING MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE ABOUT 10F DURING THE DAY...BUT ALMOST NO ONE IN CENTRAL PA
WILL GET UP TO FZG ON THURSDAY AS 8H TEMPS INCH DOWNWARD THRU THE
DAY - DIPPING TO -16C IN THE NW AND -9C IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEM WEDGING INTO MONTANA AND BUILDING
DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY/WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EWD
ACRS THE OH VLY/NRN MID-ATL THURS-FRI AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A MAINLY
DRY BUT COLD WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH
A DOMINANT RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST...TO A FLATTER/WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH AN EVENTUAL PACIFIC INFLUENCE BY NEXT WEEK 11 FEB
2014. PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD RELOAD AN
INTRUSION OF ABNORMALLY COLD...CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A RELATIVELY COLD MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR
DAYS 3-7. CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST SPLIT-STREAM ENERGY PROGRESSING EWD
FROM THE PLAINS/MIDWEST MAY SUPPORT A BROAD EAST-WEST SWATH OF LGT
PCPN FROM IA/IL TO OH/PA SAT NGT WITHIN A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE...ON THE NRN EDGE OF LLVL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE MORE
INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THIS PERIOD IS A SFC LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVE UP ALONG/OFF THE EAST COAST
SUN/D6 AND MON D7...THEN EXIT NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
TUE D8. MDL DIAGNOSTICS SHOW THE 04/12Z GFS/GEFS ARE MUCH STRONGER
AND SLOWER THAN THE 12Z CMC/UKMET AND 12Z EC/ECENS...OWING TO A
SHARPER/NEGATIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH. THE 12Z NAEFS COULD BE A DECENT
COMPROMISE AT THIS STAGE. NEVERTHELESS..THE SCREAMING MESSAGE IS
THAT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN A POTENTIAL WEEKEND WINTER STORM DUE
TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LARGE MODEL SPREAD. THEREFORE...CONTINUED
THE TO BLEND THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH THE LATEST 12Z CONSENSUS GUID.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT MOST CENTRAL AND NRN PENN AIRFIELDS. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN CIGS AND VSBYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
BY LATE TONIGHT THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE MAINLY
VFR...WITH A TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR TAKING PLACE FROM KJST
NORTH TO KBFD BETWEEN 06Z-08Z THURSDAY.
AS THE STORM DEPARTS TO THE NE...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WIND WILL INCREASE STEADILY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT MIDDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...AND COULD GUST OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES /FIRST OVER THE
LAURELS AND NW MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
THIS EVENING...UNTIL AROUND 06Z THU.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...MVFR W AND N WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR TO VFR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
SUN...LIGHT SNOW WITH RESTRICTIONS POSS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 5...
HARRISBURG...... 8.5 INCHES IN 1907
WILLIAMSPORT.... 7.8 INCHES IN 1908
STATE COLLEGE... 6.5 INCHES IN 1908
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ017>019-024>028-033>035-049>053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
VERY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS COLD WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL SOMETIME FRIDAY...WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO. RUC ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
HAS CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED THAT THIS FEATURE IS STRONGER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE IMAGERY ITSELF WHICH SHOWS A COMPACT POTENT VORTEX DIGGING
ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA. AS IT MOVES INTO THE BIG BEND
REGION LATER TONIGHT...SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE FROM BOTH THE
TOP DOWN AND FROM LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION AS 850MB FLOW
VEERS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THE THERMAL PROFILE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
SO PRECIP TYPE IS REALLY NOT IN QUESTION THIS TIME AROUND.
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS INDICATES A DEEP SATURATED LAYER BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY PRESENT. AS FORCING INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT...AREAS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME BANDING OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY MENTIONED EARLIER AND
THIS HAS EVEN BEEN INDICATED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE 3KM
TTU WRF. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THE
COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATIOS OF GREATER THAN
10 TO 1. THIS ISNT TYPICAL FOR NORTH TEXAS AS WE USUALLY WIND UP
DEALING WITH HEAVY WET SNOW. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...WE THINK 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE METROPLEX. ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD END QUICKLY BY MIDDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AS TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
AS SOON AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...ANOTHER IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
FOR FRIDAY AND THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE THE DAY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 20S EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED BY THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ANALYSIS OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS POSSIBLY PLAYING OUT.
THE LEAST FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR A QUICK RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ALOFT...AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE SNOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DOWN LOW...IT IS LIKELY
TO BE IN THE FORM OF SUPER COOLED WATER DROPLETS...WHICH LEADS TO
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND
GROUND TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY COLD...ICE WOULD LIKELY RAPIDLY
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION
BUT WILL HAVE 20 POPS FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY...MODELS DIFFER WITH FRONTAL TIMING ON MONDAY WITH
THE ECMWF BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH AND GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND
SHOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MON/TUE TIMEFRAME.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 17 27 20 35 28 / 10 50 5 20 10
WACO, TX 20 34 22 38 29 / 10 20 5 20 10
PARIS, TX 19 27 22 37 27 / 10 50 5 20 10
DENTON, TX 17 25 17 35 26 / 10 70 5 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 16 27 18 34 26 / 10 50 5 20 10
DALLAS, TX 18 29 21 36 28 / 10 50 5 20 10
TERRELL, TX 20 30 21 37 28 / 10 30 5 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 21 35 25 38 30 / 10 20 5 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 22 35 22 39 31 / 10 10 5 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 16 26 18 35 25 / 20 70 5 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091>094-100>104-115>117-129-130.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1132 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO THE CLEAR OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT
DAL/GKY/ACT TO GO VFR IN AN HOUR OR SO. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN
OVER THE REGION. MVFR CIGS MAY SETTLE BACK IN OVER THE METROPLEX
THIS EVENING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING OCCURS AND THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MOIST. CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH...BUT MOS AND NAM SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATING THIS SO WILL BRING BKN025 IN AROUND 6Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING
LIFT/MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE METROPLEX. BEST LIFT AND
SNOWFALL WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX...BUT WILL INDICATE
6SM -SN FROM 15Z TO 18Z. WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING...WHATEVER
FALLS WILL NOT MELT AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
METROPLEX AIRPORTS.
TR.92
&&
.UPDATE...
A COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS DESPITE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP QUITE
NICELY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC HAS IT ANALYZED STRONGER
THAN ANY OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY
HAVE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT FOR TOMORROW. THESE CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014/
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED THE REGION AND WILL SURGE THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL GLIDE SOUTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
TONIGHT...AND OUR NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED
OVERNIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PLUNGING INTO THE TEENS...
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CISCO AND WEATHERFORD...TO
MCKINNEY AND BONHAM. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
DESPITE BEING STRONGLY SHEARED...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
STILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURE...GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN TIMING (AS WELL AS PLACEMENT). BUT THE AMOUNT OF
FORCING VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS...
AND THUS QPF OUTPUT RUNS THE GAMUT. REGARDLESS...THE LIFT IS MORE
THAN ADEQUATE TO SATURATE A DEEP LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...AND WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER TO OVERCOME...IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS OF AN IMPEDIMENT
THAN IS TYPICAL WITH SUCH A PATTERN. WITH SNOW-PRODUCTION PROCESSES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND WILL BE SNOW.
THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF THE AMOUNT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...BUT THE NEW 06Z RUN HAS DISPLACED ITS
PERFECT-PROG PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS...
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF (THOUGH THE LATTER HAS LESSER
AMOUNTS). WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE IMPULSE...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN AREAS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
RED RIVER TO NEAR 30 PERCENT BUT MAINTAINED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER ONE INCH. ADDED A BUFFER ZONE OF FLURRIES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH INCLUDES THE METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE FAR FROM WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF AMOUNTS ARE MORE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED FROM THEIR MINIMUM IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME LOW-
LYING LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS (DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER). A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH
LITTLE TIME FOR SUFFICIENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT...IT
WILL BE LIFTING A DRIER COLUMN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO RE-INTRODUCE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 28 17 28 19 35 / 0 10 10 5 10
WACO, TX 33 20 36 20 39 / 0 10 10 5 10
PARIS, TX 28 15 27 18 36 / 0 10 30 10 10
DENTON, TX 26 16 25 16 34 / 0 10 20 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 28 16 27 17 34 / 0 10 20 5 10
DALLAS, TX 28 17 29 20 37 / 0 10 10 5 10
TERRELL, TX 32 18 30 19 37 / 0 10 10 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 32 21 34 22 38 / 0 5 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 34 21 35 21 39 / 0 5 10 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 26 14 26 15 35 / 0 10 10 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091>094-100>104-115>117-129-130.
&&
$$
/