Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/04/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

 1141 AM PST SUN FEB 2 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO EXTEND SCATTERED POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST. BROAD LIFT OCCURRING AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WITH LIGHT BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NV. THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS AND THE SUN CAN BE
SEEN FROM THE WFO RENO OFFICE DESPITE THE CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW. SO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE GOING TO BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY A DUSTING.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS READINGS WERE STRUGGLING TO
REACH 30 IN THE RENO AREA AT MIDDAY. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 AM PST SUN FEB 2 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
COLD CORE/DEFORMATION TO SLIDE ACROSS SIERRA AND SOUTHERN NV.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH DEEP MOIST LAYER WITH
SURFACE LI/S DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO WHICH IS DECENT FOR WINTER. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING HRRR SHOW QPF ALONG SIERRA WITH SPILLOVER INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN NV MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, ESPECIALLY INTO
WESTERN MINERAL COUNTY. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SHOW
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER POPS FOR EASTERN SIERRA DOWN THROUGH MONO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT QPF
EVENT, BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT KMMH AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL PUT IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 18Z TAF. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR KTVL-KTRK WHERE VCSH WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR NOW. HOHMANN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PST SUN FEB 2 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT PASSAGES MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AND INCREASING
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST WITH THE CENTER STAYING OFFSHORE NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THEN NEAR SAN DIEGO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE SIERRA,
A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE SIERRA WILL LEAD TO FORMATION OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD BY MIDDAY.
LATER IN THE DAY, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
MAY SPREAD BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST MAINLY IN
MONO COUNTY BY EARLY EVENING. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO COULD AFFECT FAR WESTERN MONO COUNTY FROM SONORA PASS SOUTH TO
MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN, WITH A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IF A
SNOW BAND SITS OVER THE SAME LOCATION FOR MORE THAN 2 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE OVER EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW IS
EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO POOR MIXING AND THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

FOR MONDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
WEAKER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN WESTERN NEVADA.
THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR, AND A SHORT PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY, DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF
CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE REGION. A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH
LIMITED MIXING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MJD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.

THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN CA AND THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SEEM TO BE TRENDING
FURTHER INTO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME EXTREMELY
COLD AIR ALOFT, AROUND -15C TO -20C AT 700 MB, MEANING THAT SNOW
LEVEL WOULD BE DOWN TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO
FROM COLD TO EVEN COLDER ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. AT THIS TIME, FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO THE SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE COLD AIR IS AT MEDIUM TO HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIP MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. A LOW PRESSURE ANOMALY WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC GETS PINCHED OFF OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS
HAS THE CHANCE OF BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE PAC NW AND
NORTHERN CA NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
COULD RIDE UP INTO THE PAC NW AND MISS THE SIERRA. THESE DETAILS
WILL BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS AS WE GET A BETTER PICTURE.
HOON

AVIATION...

MVFR VIS FROM FZFG EXPECTED AT KTRK THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN MAY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS FOR TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AIR OPERATIONS AT
KTRK, KTVL, AND KMMH. EVEN THOUGH LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, THERE IS AROUND A 30% CHANCE OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH TONIGHT AT KMMH. FARTHER NORTH AT KTRK
AND KTVL THERE IS LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

 910 AM PST SUN FEB 2 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
COLD CORE/DEFORMATION TO SLIDE ACROSS SIERRA AND SOUTHERN NV.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH DEEP MOIST LAYER WITH
SURFACE LI/S DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO WHICH IS DECENT FOR WINTER. ALL
MODELS INCLUDING HRRR SHOW QPF ALONG SIERRA WITH SPILLOVER INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN NV MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, ESPECIALLY INTO
WESTERN MINERAL COUNTY. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SHOW
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER POPS FOR EASTERN SIERRA DOWN THROUGH MONO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT QPF
EVENT, BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT KMMH AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL PUT IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 18Z TAF. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR KTVL-KTRK WHERE VCSH WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR NOW. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PST SUN FEB 2 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT PASSAGES MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AND INCREASING
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST WITH THE CENTER STAYING OFFSHORE NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THEN NEAR SAN DIEGO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE SIERRA,
A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE SIERRA WILL LEAD TO FORMATION OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD BY MIDDAY.
LATER IN THE DAY, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
MAY SPREAD BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST MAINLY IN
MONO COUNTY BY EARLY EVENING. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO COULD AFFECT FAR WESTERN MONO COUNTY FROM SONORA PASS SOUTH TO
MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN, WITH A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IF A
SNOW BAND SITS OVER THE SAME LOCATION FOR MORE THAN 2 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE OVER EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW IS
EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO POOR MIXING AND THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

FOR MONDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
WEAKER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN WESTERN NEVADA.
THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR, AND A SHORT PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY, DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF
CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE REGION. A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH
LIMITED MIXING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MJD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.

THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN CA AND THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SEEM TO BE TRENDING
FURTHER INTO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME EXTREMELY
COLD AIR ALOFT, AROUND -15C TO -20C AT 700 MB, MEANING THAT SNOW
LEVEL WOULD BE DOWN TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO
FROM COLD TO EVEN COLDER ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. AT THIS TIME, FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO THE SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE COLD AIR IS AT MEDIUM TO HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIP MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. A LOW PRESSURE ANOMALY WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC GETS PINCHED OFF OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS
HAS THE CHANCE OF BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE PAC NW AND
NORTHERN CA NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
COULD RIDE UP INTO THE PAC NW AND MISS THE SIERRA. THESE DETAILS
WILL BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS AS WE GET A BETTER PICTURE.
HOON

AVIATION...

MVFR VIS FROM FZFG EXPECTED AT KTRK THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN MAY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS FOR TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AIR OPERATIONS AT
KTRK, KTVL, AND KMMH. EVEN THOUGH LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, THERE IS AROUND A 30% CHANCE OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH TONIGHT AT KMMH. FARTHER NORTH AT KTRK
AND KTVL THERE IS LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 308 PM MST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST SUN FEB 2 2014

TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS BLEND TOGETHER TO FORM THE NEXT WINTER STORM
TO IMPACT THE REGION. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA ON
MONDAY. A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS OVER WEST CENTRAL COLORADO
WHERE THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MEGRE. HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING LATE
TONIGHT. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS THE THREAT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN
SLOPE MOUNTAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT DYNAMICAL ASCENT
DOES NOT REACH SOUTHWEST COLORADO UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
EXPANDS AND ENCOMPASSES THE MOUNTAIN AREAS BY NOONTIME MONDAY.
STATIC STABILITY IS LOW WITH MODEL DATA DEPICTING SOME CAPE
VALUES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPING SNOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME
UPDRAFTS THAT SHOULD ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC AND DYNAMICAL
COMPONENTS. SURFACE PROGS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...BELIEVE
THAT HOISTING THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS THE PRUDENT THING TO DO.
HIGH COUNTRY QPF VALUES SUPPORT AREAS OF WARNING CRITERIA BEING
REACHED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME SNOW TO EXPAND INTO THE
LOWER VALLEYS AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST SUN FEB 2 2014

AN AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC/ALASKAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP A BROAD...ACTIVE TROF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS WEEK. THE PACIFIC JET IN THE BASE OF
THIS TROF WILL DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEFORE ARCING BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. MORE ORGANIZED PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL FORCE THE JET TO BECOME MORE CYCLONICALLY CURVED NEAR THE 4
CORNERS AT EACH END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL ADD SOME
ADDITIONAL ASCENT OVER OUR REGION. WITH THE JET TO OUR
SOUTH...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. PIECES OF UNORGANIZED AND ORGANIZED ENERGY AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE PUSHED ALONG WITH THE JET WILL ALSO BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO OUR CWA MOUNTAINS WITH VALLEYS LIKELY
TO SEE SOME WHITE STUFF AS WELL.

TUESDAY MORNING THE FIRST OF THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEMS WILL BE OVER
THE CWA. THE PACIFIC WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY SUNRISE...BUT THE UPSTREAM ARCTIC WAVE WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
THE WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY. 290K
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THIS WAVE BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND PWAT TOPS OUT AT NEAR .25 INCH. THIS IS HALF OF LAST
WEEK BUT WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW NEG EPV NEAR MOUNTAIN LEVEL
WITH WESTERLY OROGRAPHICS HELPING TO RELEASE THIS INSTABILITY.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL BE GIVING THE TRUE ARCTIC FRONT
A SHOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE MID TEENS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40 AFTER MID DAY. THIS FRONT WOULD ALSO SERVE AS
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SNOW IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WHERE
DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW DENSITY
SNOW PRODUCTION.

A SHORT LULL CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE. THETA SURFACES REVEAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ENTRAINING IN THE FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS THROUGH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY LOOKS TO KEEP LIGHT SNOW PROCESSES GOING...WITH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY BOOSTING RATES AT TIMES. IT COULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MANY AREAS BUT AT THIS TIME UNSURE OF IMPACTS
SUITED FOR WINTER HEADLINES. LARGE SCALE ASCENT...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALL GET A STRONG BOOST BY FRIDAY AS AGAIN WEST COAST
ENERGY MERGES OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW THE REGION THROUGH GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS STORM IS MUCH COLDER AND NOT AS MOIST BUT
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THE LOWER DENSITY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO PILE
UP. THERE IS ALSO A DEEPER FOCUS FOR ASCENT WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST SUN FEB 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL ABOUT 09Z...THEN CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO WITH
INCREASING -SN FORMING OVER THE PEAKS. MOUNTAIN TOPS BECOME
OBSCURED BY 14Z WITH VIS 5SM -SN AT KTEX. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE AT SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE FROM
PASSING BANDS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT SNOW WILL IMPACT LOWER ELEVATED TAF SITES SUCH
AS KGJT...KMTJ AND KRIL AS WELL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 3 AM MST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING COZ009-013-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE COZ017.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     COZ010-012.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 1008 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT...MOVES
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY...THEN EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUE TO TIME FOG BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND NARRE. IMPROVEMENT
IS NOTED IN OBS...AND HAVE DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADV FOR LAND
AREAS. PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND SE
CT...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA WITH THE FRONT
ACROSS MOST OF NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...EXCEPT FOR CHANCE
POPS FAR N/W ORANGE COUNTY. APPEARS WITH BEST FORCING WELL TO THE
N/W...THAT LONG ISLAND SHOULD STAY DRY.

KEPT HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS...SUPPORTING BY HOURLY MOS
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - MAINLY
IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SHORT TERM - WITH THE
REGION BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO
PASS 225-250 MILES SE OF KMTP OR ABOUT 125-150 MILES S OF THE
40N/70W BENCH MARK BY 00Z MONDAY.

THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT IN GENERAL A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SW TRACKS E AND DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST
AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO A
POSITION OVER THE TRI-STATE BY 00Z TUESDAY.

THE MODELS ARE ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT AS A WINTRY MIX LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY BRIEFLY AS A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN OVER THE NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW DRAWING
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

AS A RESULT...THE 24 HOUR HIGH FOR MONDAY LIKELY WILL OCCUR DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH USING A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ADDING GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TO THE BLEND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY - AND
SUBTRACTING A DEGREE OR 2 DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
WET-BULBING/WEIGH TOWARDS THE LOWER GUIDANCE.

THE DIFFERENCES LIE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...AND HENCE EXACTLY HOW MUCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLS ON THE
AREA.

BASED ON ALL THE ABOVE...DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE
CWA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
THAT BY MID- MONDAY MORNING MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR N PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE WHERE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FALLING AT ALL IS ONLY
MODERATE. AS A RESULT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MEASURABLE SNOW
FALL FOR ALL BUT FAR N PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODERATE.

AS FOR SPECIFIC AMOUNTS...STICKING WITH PREVIOUS IDEA OF 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/COASTAL CT/S LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/MOST OF
LONG ISLAND WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TWIN FORKS...WHERE IT WILL TAKE THE
LONGEST TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE THE WARMEST. THIS IS BASED ON USING HPC FORECASTED QPF AND
USING SURFACE TEMPERATURE BASED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...SO
GENERALLY FALL A TAD SHORT OF 10:1 IN MOST AREAS.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF/CMC/SREF
WHICH FORECAST 1/2-3/4 INCHES OF QPF OVER LONG ISLAND/NYC WHERE AS
THE NAM AND GFS ONLY HAVE AROUND 1/4 OF AN INCH. THE SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE GENERALLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS AND THE ECMWF/CMC
CAMPS. GIVEN THIS RANGE OF QPF CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
IS ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOW FALL...ALL 20 PERCENT OF SUB-ADVISORY SNOW...AND A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF NO SNOW AT ALL. THIS LATTER SOLUTION IS
SUPPORTED IS BY 3-4 SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. BASED ON THIS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY IN
THE HWO - INCLUDING THE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE FOR WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z NWP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH A
W-SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING THIS IDEA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A THREAT
OF A STORM SYSTEM EVERY FEW DAYS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW BEHIND MONDAYS SYSTEM WILL COME TO AN END
DURING MON EVE WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
UNDER A NLY FLOW. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE ON TUE AS MID LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK UP THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT
WITH POSSIBLE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.
THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
WHILE THE GFS/EC AND CMC ALL TRACK THE LOW VERY CLOSE/OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK...THE DEVIL REMAINS IN THE DETAILS WITH REGARDS TO
THERMAL PROFILES AND P-TYPES. THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN GAINED IN A WINTRY MIX EVENT. A
PORTION OF THE AREA COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN EVENT AND THUS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA BUILDS
IN WED NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF AND CMC ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS BUT GFS DOES
BECOME A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ARE BUILDING IN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO BE A MAIN PRECIP TYPE.
HOWEVER...WITH UNCERTAINTY AND RUN TO RUN MODEL
FLUCTUATIONS...LIMITED POPS TO 30 PERCENT AT MOST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...GIVING WAY TO BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. FOG DISSIPATING AND BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS. STILL SOME LINGERING
IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME TERMINALS NORTH AND EAST OF
CITY...BUT THESE TOO SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16-17Z. THEREAFTER
FOR THE AFTERNOON THROUGH FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR BUT
THERE COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF MVFR IN -SHRA NEAR KSWF.

ANY -RA MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO -SN AFT 6Z AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND BECOMES WIDESPREAD. IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR/OCCASIONAL VLIFR
SN AFT 12-13Z MON WITH MAIN ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING.

WSW-W BECOMES NW AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTN-EARLY EVE. WIND
SPEED BLW 10KT THRU THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. N WINDS INCREASE 10-15KT
AFT 12Z MON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR REST OF THE DAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR REST OF THE
DAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBILITY OF ADVECTION OF STRATUS/FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR REST OF THE DAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR REST OF THE DAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR REST OF THE
DAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR REST OF THE
DAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MONDAY/EARLY MONDAY EVENING...MODERATE SNOW...POSIBLY MIXED WITH
RAIN AT THE COASTS...WITH IFR/LIFR AND OCCASIONAL VLIFR CONDITIONS.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2-4 INCHES AT THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS...AND 1-3 INCHES AT THE CT/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS.
.LATE MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY...VFR.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING IFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIP.
.WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...IFR EXPECTED. SNOW INLAND AND A
WINTRY MIX AT THE COAST IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN AT THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT KSWF/KHPN.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON NEAR SHORE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS...VISIBILITIES ARE
LESS THAN 1 MILE ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH 1 PM..BUT IT COLD IMPROVE SOONER.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH MONDAY. A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT OVER
ANZ-350 WHERE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS MORNING.

WINDS DO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AND
ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL
LOW PASSING WELL TO THE S...WITH GUSTS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 20
KT ON MONDAY.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
INCREASE AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON WED. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND/BAYS...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY THU AFTN AND REMAINING THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

CURRENTLY FORECASTING FROM 0.1-0.4 INCHES OF QPF FROM N TO S FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS...AND THEY COULD END UP AROUND 1/4-1/3
INCH EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER THAN THOSE AMOUNTS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LATE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF IT WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE
FROZEN OR FREEZING STATE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.

DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.

DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     340-345-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JMC/JM
MARINE...24/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...24/MALOIT
EQUIPMENT...










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 1001 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A STORM
TRACKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH LOOKS TO BRING A SNOWSTORM TO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...AS SURFACE OBS
INDICATE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...THEN GRADUALLY START DROPPING POST-FROPA. WINDS ARE
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...NEITHER IS THE
THERMAL GRADIENT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP ABRUPTLY.

LOCAL HIRES WRF AND HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
BLOSSOM AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...POSSIBLY A RESULT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE. STILL...ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS SO WILL CAP POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT. TEMP PROFILES
INDICATE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ONLY A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY EASE BACK INTO THE 30S LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFT OVER TERRAIN ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL END AS THE
FLOW BECOMES VERY ANTICYCLONIC. THE SKY IN MOST PLACES WILL AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WHICH WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO CLOUDS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES...WHILE STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS...WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S...EXCEPT TEENS AND EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
OUR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL ULTIMATELY SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF ITS PRECIPITATION COULD BRUSH OUR
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR ON
SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN THE
COLUMN...EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.
OUR FORECAST IMPLIES A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. FURTHER NORTH...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...20S FURTHER NORTH. THESE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS...SOME
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACK PARK TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA...10 TO 15 SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO
EXIST FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

EXCEPT FOR THE NAM WHICH HAS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING (AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW)...
THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND
EVENTUAL SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE AIR OVER THE REGION
BEING COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WITH THIS EVENT. OVER THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE TREND OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAS BEEN TO GET
COLDER. EXPECTING SUBSTANTIAL AND WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING PCPN WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT ABOUT 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS EVENT BASED ON QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH...AND EXPECTED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY
WET COMPARED TO RECENT SNOWFALLS (TEN OR TWELVE TO ONE WAS USED TO
GET THE FORECAST SNOW TOTALS). HAVE FORECAST POPS RISING TO
CATEGORICAL AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAINING CATEGORICAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWERS 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS IT HEADS OUT TO SEA.  EXPECT COLDER BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN MOST PLACES TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30.

DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL EITHER AFFECT THE
REGION ON SATURDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. TO FAR OUT TO MAKE ANY
DECISIONS AS TO WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT AT THIS TIME...SO WILL JUST
FORECAST A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SATURDAY FOR NOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS ALONG IT HAVE
NEARLY DISSIPATED OR BECOME ISOLATED. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH A PART OF TODAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z MONDAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR
LESS.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY : HIGH OPERATION IMPACT. SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATION IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND INSIGNIFICANT TO THE WATER
SHEDS. DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF OUR REGION WILL HAVE A SNOWSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. INITIALLY THIS SNOWSTORM WILL HAVE NO REAL
IMPACT ON THE WATER SHEDS.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 555 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION TOMORROW...BRINGING OUR FIRST ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THIS WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BRINGS A
WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  MORE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ONE MORE LOW MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING IN AFFECT FOR THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA WITH
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THIS
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. MORE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

555 PM NOTE: WE ARE REVIEWING GUIDANCE FOR A POTENTIAL SLIGHT
UPGRADE IN AMOUNTS AND SLIGHT EXPANSION NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
WARNING CONFIGURATION AND POSSIBLY ADDING A LAYER OF ADVY ALONG
THE SOUTH BORDER OF THE WARNING. WE`LL HAVE WHATEVER CHANGES WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF...COMPLETED BY 8 PM. THE ONE ZONE WE ARE VERY
CONFIDENT OF UPGRADING TO A WARNING IS WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY TO
BRIDGE WITH THE STATE COLLEGE LATEST UPDATE FOR LANCASTER COUNTY.


THE PSEUDO-ARCTIC FRONT TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, MOSTLY LIQUID AS THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-
LEVEL WARMING TAKING PLACE. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
RAIN TONIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MIX LATER THIS EVENING AS
SOME COLD AIR STARTS TO SEEP INTO THE REGION.

THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT ANY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF VERY PERIOD OF SLEET IN THE
TRANSITION. LATEST 18Z/2 GFS AND NAM THERMAL PROFILES HAVE THE
ENTIRE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE BELOW FREEZING BY 10Z! THE
QUESTION ARE THE MODELS TOO COLD TOO FAST? EVEN THE ECMWF HAS AN
ENTIRELY FREEZING COLUMN AT 11Z!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
**HIGH IMPACT HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED FOR 2 TO 5 HOURS MONDAY MORNING
 IN THE WARNING AREA**

18Z NAM/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN AGREEMENT ON AN AXIS OF LARGE
DENDRITE GROWTH AT 12Z FROM SOUTHEAST PA THROUGH NORTHERN MARYLAND.
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE WE DONT SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
1/4S+ IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. WHILE THIS
IS MODELED GUIDANCE...WE THINK IT PROBABLE SINCE THE TWO NCEP
PRIMARY MODELS WE USE ARE IN AGREEMENT. THIS AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
SLIPS EWD PASSING OFF THE COAST BY 1PM.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS MAY ONLY BE 10 TO 1 AND SO WE WONT INFLATE
AMOUNTS... BUT SW RATIO MAY MAKE THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO REMOVE
AFTER THE STORM.

WE CHECKED THE NAM 21Z TEMPS AND THEY ARE BASICALLY WITHIN 2F OF
THE 18Z PREDICTION ALONG AND N OF I80.

LATEST 21Z/2 RAP HAS 3 NEW INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 9Z AND 15Z IN THE
POCONOS AND 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT NNJ THOUGH ONLY 1 INCH NEAR I95 IN
PHILADELPHIA. IF THE STRONG FGEN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE AS NOW MODELED
THEN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE MARKEDLY LESS BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...
WHILE THE OVERALL SNOW EVENT WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED ANYTHING SPECIAL...
ITS ACCUMULATION WITHIN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAKES THIS
MUCH HIGHER IMPACT.


FROM THE EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW

THE OPEN/STABLE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRUCK ALONG THE STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.

THE NEW 12Z MODELS ARE IN AND THE UPPER AIR INITIALIZATION SHOWS
THEY ARE ALL A TAD DEEPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND COLDER IN THE LOW-LEVELS UPSTREAM...THIS WILL CAUSE A
GREATER UNCERTAINTY TO PTYPE TRANSITION KEEPING THE COLDER AIR
FURTHER WEST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. FROM THE WORDS OF A FAMOUS
WEATHERMAN, "IT`S GON` RAIN, SLEET, SNOW"!, JUST A MATTER OF
LOCATION AND TIMING NOW.

ALL THE MODELS TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK WITH THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE AND
THE SURFACE INFLECTION. FOR THE MOST PART THE NEW GUIDANCE PAINTS A
PRETTY HEFTY AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BAND OF NEARLY
EIGHT TENTHS FROM PHILLY SOUTHWARD, WHERE WE GET CLOSER TO AN INCH.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IS THE
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE FRONT THAT
WILL INCH THROUGH TONIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A TRUE ARCTIC FRONT
AS TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT HAVE NOT PLUMMETED AS FAST AS THEY WOULD
OTHERWISE.

THE NAM HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING ITS BETTER FGEN FORCING FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NEARBY,
MOSTLY OVER PHL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST SNOW GROWTH HAPPENS
LATE MORNING WHEN HELP FROM THE JET DYNAMICS PROPELS THE VVS
STRONGER AND THE BEST OMEGA MOVES IN PLACE. THIS IS WHEN THE BETTER
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AND THERE COULD BE SOME RATES
AROUND AN 1 OR 2 AN HOUR. THAT BEING SAID, THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
LOLLY-GAGGING DOWN TO FIRST, AS IT IT RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY SO ANY
BANDING THAT TAKE PLACE WILL BE TRANSIENT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW LINE PROGRESSES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
AND WE COULD COME CLOSE TO WARNING AMOUNTS OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
WARNING AREAS.

THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PULLS TOWARDS
THE EAST-NORTHEAST PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY UNDER THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL AND THEN DROP ONCE THE HEAVIER QPF KICKS IN. THE
DAYTIME HIGH SHOULD BE REACHED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THE LOW SHOULD OCCUR LATE TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIODS ARE STILL FOCUSED ON TWO MAIN EVENTS.

FIRST...THE LOW LIFTING NE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE TRACK
IS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...ON SHORE FLOW IN THE COLD SECTOR COULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ICING. IF THE TRACK IS BISECTING OUR REGION AS
INDICATED BY THE GFS...THE ICING CONCERNS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN PA...WITH MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND EAST. THIS WILL BE HARD TO RESOLVE
WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW POORLY SOME
MODELS INITIALIZED TODAY WITH FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH SOLUTIONS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOW THE
MOIST LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH REGION IN
THE CLOUD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

BY THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN RELATIVELY QUIET,
BUT ON THE COLD SIDE, AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART,
WE USED WPC TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH A FEW LOCAL
ADJUSTMENTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID
30S SOUTH.

INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS MORE ACTIVE, WITH
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND, INCLUDING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS. IN GENERAL, WE FAVORED THE ECMWF A LITTLE MORE AT THIS TIME,
BUT WE HOPE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME TO REFINE THE DETAILS RELATED TO THIS STORM SYSTEM.
DEPENDING ON STORM TRACK AND TIMING, THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, CREATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR LATE AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION TYPES
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE RAIN, WET SNOW AND PERHAPS
SOME SLEET. THIS HAS BEEN ADDED WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE, AND
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE START TIME IS AVERAGE. WE DID NOT INCLUDE
SLEET AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST
AT 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE BETWEEN THE 12 AND 18Z
TAFS IS THAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ESPECIALLY FOR KPNE AND LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH. THUS...HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TRANSITIONS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE BY TWO HOURS FOR MOST OF THESE TERMINALS TO REFLECT THIS
CHANGE. WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SN
OR RASN. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE THROUGH MID DAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. N-NE
WIND GUST 15 TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RA FOR
KPHL...KPNE...KTTN...KILG...KMIV...AND KACY WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT KRDG AND KABE...EXPECT FZRA REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR...OR POSSIBLY IFR.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING
LATE IN THE DAY...THEN VFR. FZRA SHOULD TRANSITION TO RA MID DAY
WEDNESDAY AT KRDG AND KABE.

THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
THROUGH TODAY, HOWEVER IT SHOULD TEND TO STALL FOR A TIME AS IT
NEARS THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TURNING
MORE WESTERLY TOWARD EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING, HOWEVER MOST OF IT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MAINLY FROM THE COAST OF NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY ON NORTHWARD. THE
FLOW WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TONIGHT AS OUR
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET
ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CONDITIONS AS A LOW
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.

THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...ALL RIVERS IN THE HSA REPORT AT LEAST
SOME ICE COVER, WITH MANY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED. MANY GAGE READINGS
SHOW ICE EFFECTS.

ICE JAMS...SOLID ICE COVER IS NOT NECESSARILY AN ICE JAM. AN ICE JAM
IS DEFINED AS A RESTRICTION. IF WATER IF FLOWING UNDERNEATH THE ICE,
AND NOT CAUSING THE WATER TO BACK UP, THE ICE COVER IS NOT CONSIDERED
A JAM.

ICE BREAK UP...THE TWO MAIN FACTORS THAT QUICKLY CAUSE ICE TO BREAK
UP ARE RUNOFF AND TEMPERATURES, WITH RUNOFF BEING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FACTOR. WHEN WATER LEVELS RISE, IT LIFTS THE ICE, FRACTURES IT, AND
DISLODGES IT FROM THE RIVER BANKS.

SO LET`S TAKE A LOOK AT TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL(WHICH LEADS TO
RUNOFF).

TEMPERATURES...
MONDAY...LOWS IN THE HIGH TEENS TO AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY...LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S.
WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.

RAINFALL...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY RAIN)
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT COULD START OFF AS SNOW AND ICE
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF HSA. EARLY QPF VALUES LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ARE IN EXCESS OF 1.00 INCH WHICH WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
RUNOFF.

FUTURE ICE CONDITIONS...WHILE ICE RELEASES AND POSSIBLE JAMS ARE
HARD TO PREDICT, WE FEEL WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF THIS WEEKEND,
THE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONE WILL NOT BREAK UP THE ICE.
INSTEAD, WE FEEL THE ICE WILL SOFTEN AND MELT.

AT THIS TIME, THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AND A HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

STILL, BECAUSE RIVER ICE IS UNPREDICTABLE, PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR YOUR NEARBY STREAMS AND RIVERS AND NOTIFY THE APPROPRIATE
PERSONNEL IF YOU SHOULD SEE ANY FLOODING AND/OR AN ICE JAM OCCURRING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CLIS FOR 2/2/14 WILL HAVE THE 12Z SNOW DEPTH ADDED AT 130AM EST
MONDAY.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL: WHILE NOT FORECAST ...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
ONE OR 2 OF THESE VALUES "MAY" BE APPROACHED TO WITHIN 1 INCH.

FEBRUARY 3
KABE 7.3 1961
KACY 4.2 1961
KPHL 8.0 1886
KILG 6.7 1961

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-012>015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER 555
SHORT TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER 555
LONG TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/KLINE
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...555







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 330 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW TONIGHT AS
COLDER AIR RETURNS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH COLD DRY WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...YET ANOTHER STORM
MAY BRING MORE SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO PUT OUT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. RADAR SHOWED BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THROUGH CRAWFORDSVILLE...FRANKFORT...AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST
TO MARION INDIANA. 3 INCHES OF SNOW WERE ALREADY REPORTED WITH
THIS BAND AND HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE BAND HOLDING TOGETHER FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA SO THINK 4-5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED 6 IS POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF THIS BAND A MIX OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WERE OCCURRING AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF ENHANCEMENT IN THIS AREA IN A FEW HOURS.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROPPING THOUGHT THIS COULD RESULT IN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS OF TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SNOW...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE AN INCH OR TWO BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED THREE DEPENDING UPON PRECIP TYPE WITH THE ENHANCED WAVE
ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POPS FOR SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY
WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SHIFT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SHIELD NORTH...WITH
SOME SUGGESTIONS THAT LIGHT SNOW MAY MANAGE TO GET NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT WILL WARRANT
LINGERING POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FROM EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY ON
WITH DEEPER FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFTS NORTH
HOWEVER WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE INTRODUCING LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ORGANIZES
OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF.

TEMPS...GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER MAVMOS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH MATCHED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMALS. COULD
SEE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT NORTH TO SOUTH FOR LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHERE
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND WOULD HELP TEMPS TUMBLE. CLOUD SHIELD FROM
SURFACE WAVE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP A
BIT FROM I-70 SOUTH...POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 20 IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST SUN FEB 02 2014

FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT...OUT
TO SEA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANY LINGERING SNOW TO END. LOW POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND LOOKS GOOD. THEN...ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM WESTERN CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THIS TREND IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS AND ALL MODELS KEEP IT DRY FRIDAY. THEN...BIG DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING TAKE PLACE AS THE ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER...AROUND 24 HOURS IN
FACT...SPINNING UP A SOUTHERN STATES SYSTEM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND BRINGING THE SURFACE SYSTEM INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. ECMWF TENDS TO DO BETTER WITH DAYS 6 AND 7 AND
MATCHES UP BETTER WITH THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND THAT HAS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT...SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL
NOT MESS WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AGREE WITH VERY COLD ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES. WITH ARCTIC AIR BUILDING
IN...EXPECTED SNOW COVER AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...CERTAINLY CAN ENVISION BELOW NORMAL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

HEAVIER SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE MOVING IN BY 09Z PER RADAR. WENT WITH
IFR CONDITONS AND MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY GO LOWER. WINDS WILL BE
NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS. EXPECTED THE SNOW TO END TOWARD 12Z AND
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARD 15Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPES
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FIGHTS WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG
A FRONTAL ZONE.

APPEARS RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE...WHICH MAY SERVE TO SLOW DOWN THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TEMPORARILY.

BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KIND/KHUF BY ISSUANCE TIME...WITH A SLOW PUSH TOWARDS
KBMG BY 021000Z. MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE...BUT SO FAR NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF GROUND REPORTS AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECTING IFR CEILINGS/OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW AREAS...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ030-
031-036>049-051>057-060.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 323 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW TONIGHT AS
COLDER AIR RETURNS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH COLD DRY WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...YET ANOTHER STORM
MAY BRING MORE SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO PUT OUT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. RADAR SHOWED BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THROUGH CRAWFORDSVILLE...FRANKFORT...AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST
TO MARION INDIANA. 3 INCHES OF SNOW WERE ALREADY REPORTED WITH
THIS BAND AND HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE BAND HOLDING TOGETHER FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA SO THINK 4-5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED 6 IS POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF THIS BAND A MIX OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WERE OCCURRING AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF ENHANCEMENT IN THIS AREA IN A FEW HOURS.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROPPING THOUGHT THIS COULD RESULT IN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS OF TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SNOW...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE AN INCH OR TWO BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED THREE DEPENDING UPON PRECIP TYPE WITH THE ENHANCED WAVE
ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POPS FOR SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY
WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SHIFT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SHIELD NORTH...WITH
SOME SUGGESTIONS THAT LIGHT SNOW MAY MANAGE TO GET NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT WILL WARRANT
LINGERING POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FROM EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY ON
WITH DEEPER FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFTS NORTH
HOWEVER WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE INTRODUCING LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ORGANIZES
OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF.

TEMPS...GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER MAVMOS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH MATCHED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMALS. COULD
SEE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT NORTH TO SOUTH FOR LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHERE
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND WOULD HELP TEMPS TUMBLE. CLOUD SHIELD FROM
SURFACE WAVE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP A
BIT FROM I-70 SOUTH...POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 20 IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST SUN FEB 02 2014

FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT...OUT
TO SEA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ANY LINGERING SNOW TO END. LOW POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND LOOKS GOOD. THEN...ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM WESTERN CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THIS TREND IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS AND ALL MODELS KEEP IT DRY FRIDAY. THEN...BIG DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING TAKE PLACE AS THE ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER...AROUND 24 HOURS IN
FACT...SPINNING UP A SOUTHERN STATES SYSTEM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND BRINGING THE SURFACE SYSTEM INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. ECMWF TENDS TO DO BETTER WITH DAYS 6 AND 7 AND
MATCHES UP BETTER WITH THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND THAT HAS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT...SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL
NOT MESS WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AGREE WITH VERY COLD ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES. WITH ARCTIC AIR BUILDING
IN...EXPECTED SNOW COVER AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...CERTAINLY CAN ENVISION BELOW NORMAL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPES
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FIGHTS WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG
A FRONTAL ZONE.

APPEARS RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE...WHICH MAY SERVE TO SLOW DOWN THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TEMPORARILY.

BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KIND/KHUF BY ISSUANCE TIME...WITH A SLOW PUSH TOWARDS
KBMG BY 021000Z. MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE...BUT SO FAR NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF GROUND REPORTS AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECTING IFR CEILINGS/OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW AREAS...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ030-
031-036>049-051>057-060.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 126 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 526 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY...AND THEN BRING A POTENTIAL OF SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

SFC REFLECTION HAS NOW TRACKED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ONTARIO ALLOWING
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TO EXPERIENCE WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. PRECIP HAS TRANSITIONED BACK TO SNOW WITH
PERHAPS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW. EXPECTING THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING GIVEN VERY WEAK NATURE TO WARM LAYER ALOFT. MAIN LOW LEVEL
MOIST TONGUE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME PRECIP
CHANGES OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME INITIALLY LOW SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. THIS SHOULD TEMPER ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE PRECIP RATES
AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE FOR SOME MORE
LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. WHILE MOST OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM
WARNING AREA...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THIS HEADLINE FOR NOW GIVEN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF SNOW AND SLUSHY/ICY ROAD CONDITIONS. WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE NOW MORE
SHEARED IN NATURE AND RACING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...MAY TEND
TO SEE LOW LEVEL TROUGH SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT
WHICH ALREADY SEEMS WELL HANDLED IN GRIDDED FORECAST. 00Z RAP
INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON A WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WHICH WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN SOME LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM CROSS
SECTIONS DO ALSO DEPICT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINGERING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE 06Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME. THUS...SOME LOW END CONCERN FOR BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS WHERE SOME WEAK-MODERATE 850-700 HPA FGEN
FORCING IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT IN PROXIMITY TO WEAKER STABILITY
ALOFT. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW SNOW:LIQUID
RATIOS AND DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING EAST OF THE AREA...WILL LIMIT
ACCUMS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES. UPDATED FORECAST SENT TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT POP/TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

...MESSY AFTERNOON/EVENING ON TAP FOR THE AREA...

AS OF 230 PM...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A KANKAKEE...TO GOSHEN TO ANGOLA
LINE WERE SEEING ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
NEAR 40 (FAR SOUTHEAST). PRIOR TO MIXING/SWITCHOVER...NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAME IN ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR WHITE COUNTY...A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN
EXPECTED. RUC HAS BEEN HANDLING MANY OF THE FINER DETAILS QUITE WELL
AND WAS USED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY FOR THE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING.
THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT
ALSO SHOWING A FASTER TREND SO PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT CHANGE OVER TIMES
STILL LOOK REASONABLE. AS THE TRANSITION COMMENCES A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. ONCE THIS OCCURS...SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH ADDITIONAL QPF VALUES OF ROUGHLY ONE QUARTER
INCH OR SO IN FAR NW AREAS TO A BAND OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR
MORE IN SE HALF OR SO. MUCH OF THIS HEAVIER PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN...BUT MUCH LIKE FURTHER NW A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN
INCH WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW. JUST AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER
TODAY...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN TRANSITION TO WARRANT ANY
HEADLINE CHANGES. IT COULD BE CLOSE FOR FULL WARNING CRITERIA BEING
MET IN SOME AREAS...BUT WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR A COMBINATION OF
EARLIER SNOW AND EXPECTED SNOW BEHIND THE LOW SO SHOULD WORK OUT FOR
THE MOST PART. FURTHER UPDATES AND REFINEMENTS ARE LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ONCE TEMPS START TO FALL..ROAD CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MESSY AND VERY SLIPPERY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

ENERGETIC IMPULSE LADEN FLW EMBEDDED WITHIN PROJECTED NEG PNA PATTN
ACRS NOAM SPELLS HIGH IMPACT WX ACRS THE OH VALLEY THIS PD. OF NOTE
CONTS TO BE W/SYS SEEN THIS AFTN ON VAPOR OUT NR 42N/137W WHICH DIGS
SEWD INTO NRN BAHA ON MON AND THEN LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE LWR OH
VALLEY AS LARGER SCALE ARCTIC STREAM SW DROPS SWD INTO THE WRN US.

PRONOUNCED POLAR RIDGING BLDG IN WAKE OF SHRT TERM SYS PASSAGE TO
PROVIDE A BRIEF DRY BUT COLD RESPITE FROM WINTERS ONSLAUGHT. HWVR
DEEP SRN PLAINS EJECTION POINT AND STG GOMEX RTN FLW INTO SRN
PERIPHERY OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE LOOK TO PROVIDE FOR SIG CYCLONE
DVLPMNT OVR THE LWR MS VALLEY EARLY TUE AND UP THROUGH THE ERN OH
VALLEY ON WED AS EXEMPLIFIED IN STABLE SPECTRAL TRACK. DETAILS AS
YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT SIG IMPACTS XPCD BOTH W/WIND AND SNOW
PARTICULARLY TUE AFTN-WED AM.

OTRWS ARCTIC RIDGE BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS THU-FRI W/VERY COLD
TEMPS YET LOOKS TO SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER SIG OH VALLEY
CYCLONE NXT WEEKEND AS DEEP WRN TROUGH RELOADS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROF WAS HELPING TO KEPT LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING AT FWA. THE LATEST 12KM/NAM APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS
SYSTEM REASONABLY WELL...WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON
ENDING THE SNOW AT 08Z AT FWA...ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE TROF LATER THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO END
AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1245 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW TONIGHT AS
COLDER AIR RETURNS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH COLD DRY WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...YET ANOTHER STORM
MAY BRING MORE SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO PUT OUT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. RADAR SHOWED BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THROUGH CRAWFORDSVILLE...FRANKFORT...AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST
TO MARION INDIANA. 3 INCHES OF SNOW WERE ALREADY REPORTED WITH
THIS BAND AND HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE BAND HOLDING TOGETHER FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA SO THINK 4-5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED 6 IS POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF THIS BAND A MIX OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WERE OCCURRING AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF ENHANCEMENT IN THIS AREA IN A FEW HOURS.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROPPING THOUGHT THIS COULD RESULT IN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS OF TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SNOW...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE AN INCH OR TWO BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED THREE DEPENDING UPON PRECIP TYPE WITH THE ENHANCED WAVE
ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POPS FOR SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY
WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SHIFT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SHIELD NORTH...WITH
SOME SUGGESTIONS THAT LIGHT SNOW MAY MANAGE TO GET NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT WILL WARRANT
LINGERING POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FROM EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY ON
WITH DEEPER FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFTS NORTH
HOWEVER WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE INTRODUCING LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ORGANIZES
OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF.

TEMPS...GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER MAVMOS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH MATCHED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMALS. COULD
SEE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT NORTH TO SOUTH FOR LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHERE
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND WOULD HELP TEMPS TUMBLE. CLOUD SHIELD FROM
SURFACE WAVE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP A
BIT FROM I-70 SOUTH...POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 20 IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

FOCUS REMAINS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

CONTINUE TO PREFER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LESS RELIANCE ON
SOMEWHAT LESS CONSISTENT GFS. GFS LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST AND EURO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH EURO REMAINS
CONSISTENTLY THE COLDER MODEL AND GFS WARMER ODDLY ENOUGH. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN LOOSELY CLUSTERED BUT AROUND A FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TRACK THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT THIS HAS YET TO TRANSLATE
TO A COLDER SOLUTION IN THE LOW LEVELS.

AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL SNOW MAINLY NORTH/NORTHWEST OF
INDY...WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN A SWATH
SOUTH OF THIS...AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ALL PRECIP
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY LIKELY SNOW OR QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.

MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY AND AS SUCH AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. BANDING WILL BE AN ISSUE WHICH COULD IMPACT
BOTH AMOUNTS AND PRECIP TYPE OWING TO DYNAMIC EFFECTS.

MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME. CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET/ICE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPES
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FIGHTS WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG
A FRONTAL ZONE.

APPEARS RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE...WHICH MAY SERVE TO SLOW DOWN THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TEMPORARILY.

BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KIND/KHUF BY ISSUANCE TIME...WITH A SLOW PUSH TOWARDS
KBMG BY 021000Z. MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE...BUT SO FAR NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF GROUND REPORTS AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECTING IFR CEILINGS/OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW AREAS...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ030-
031-036>049-051>057-060.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1130 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW TONIGHT AS
COLDER AIR RETURNS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH COLD DRY WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...YET ANOTHER STORM
MAY BRING MORE SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

PRECIPITATION HAVE  ALREADY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW OVER NORTHWEST
SECTIONS AND THIS CHANGEOVER WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH MOST AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET AHEAD OF THE TRANSITION TO SNOW.  RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKER THAN TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AS BUFKIT INDICATES FREEZING RAIN AT INDY MOST OF THE NIGHT.
I BELIEVE THEY ARE OVERDOING THE FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS AND THIS WARM
LAYER ALOFT.  NORMALLY YOU DO NOT GET A BIG FREEZING RAIN EVENT
ALONG A COLD FRONT. SO EVEN THOUGH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR FOR
A FEW HOURS...I EXPECT ONLY VERY LIGHT ICING AT BEST.  SO WILL
CONTINUE TO COVER THIS EVENT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY NOT REACH FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 500 AM.  EXPECT ALL AREAS TO SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WELL UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL
TRACK ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARDS 4 AM AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER THAT.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POPS FOR SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY
WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SHIFT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SHIELD NORTH...WITH
SOME SUGGESTIONS THAT LIGHT SNOW MAY MANAGE TO GET NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT WILL WARRANT
LINGERING POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FROM EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY ON
WITH DEEPER FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFTS NORTH
HOWEVER WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE INTRODUCING LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ORGANIZES
OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF.

TEMPS...GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER MAVMOS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH MATCHED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMALS. COULD
SEE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT NORTH TO SOUTH FOR LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHERE
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND WOULD HELP TEMPS TUMBLE. CLOUD SHIELD FROM
SURFACE WAVE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP A
BIT FROM I-70 SOUTH...POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 20 IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

FOCUS REMAINS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

CONTINUE TO PREFER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LESS RELIANCE ON
SOMEWHAT LESS CONSISTENT GFS. GFS LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST AND EURO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH EURO REMAINS
CONSISTENTLY THE COLDER MODEL AND GFS WARMER ODDLY ENOUGH. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN LOOSELY CLUSTERED BUT AROUND A FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TRACK THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT THIS HAS YET TO TRANSLATE
TO A COLDER SOLUTION IN THE LOW LEVELS.

AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL SNOW MAINLY NORTH/NORTHWEST OF
INDY...WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN A SWATH
SOUTH OF THIS...AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ALL PRECIP
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY LIKELY SNOW OR QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.

MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY AND AS SUCH AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. BANDING WILL BE AN ISSUE WHICH COULD IMPACT
BOTH AMOUNTS AND PRECIP TYPE OWING TO DYNAMIC EFFECTS.

MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME. CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET/ICE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPES
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FIGHTS WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG
A FRONTAL ZONE.

APPEARS RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE...WHICH MAY SERVE TO SLOW DOWN THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TEMPORARILY.

BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KIND/KHUF BY ISSUANCE TIME...WITH A SLOW PUSH TOWARDS
KBMG BY 021000Z. MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE...BUT SO FAR NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF GROUND REPORTS AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECTING IFR CEILINGS/OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW AREAS...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 523 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. A ZONALLY ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES INTO MINNESOTA WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY AS THE COL
BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS TRANSECTS THE STATE. THESE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A WEDGE OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS REFLECTED IN THE 12Z/18Z NAM AND 18Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA.

THE LATEST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
WINTER STORM TOMORROW MORNING BY ABOUT 4-6 HOURS...WHICH ISN`T
SURPRISING GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AS
IT MOVED INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA LAST NIGHT. THE 300 MB WAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AFTER 06Z AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...BUT DISJOINTED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AS IT
REACHES THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT 12Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOISTURE ALREADY POOLING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA AFTER
06Z.

PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RIBBON OF 800-850
MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR HAS GREATLY BACKED OFF ON THE OVERNIGHT QPF...MOSTLY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER. IN
FACT...THE QPF THAT IS BEING GENERATED BY THE NAM MAY JUST BE AN
ARTIFACT OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND COULD VANISH BY THE 00Z RUN.
THE GFS 280K ANALYSIS ALSO AGREES WITH THIS THINKING. DESPITE
SHARP ASCENT FROM 880 TO 800 MB OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA...MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED WITH CDEFS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 50 TO 150 MB.

THUS...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REVOLVED
AROUND WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT OVER THE
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PLUME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE NAM IN BACKING
OFF ON POPS SUBSTANTIALLY...AND THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

THE WINTER STORM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS AN INTERESTING
STORM ON MANY LEVELS.  IT WILL BRING WITH IT SEVERAL ELEMENTS OF A
WINTER STORM...SNOW THEN WIND FOLLOWED BY BITER COLD.  LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE ONGOING FROM A WEAK WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT.  THERE
ARE SOME QUESTIONS REMAINING FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS TO HOW QUICKLY
WE CAN SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE AND HOW FAR SOUTH THAT WILL OCCUR.
THERE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH
18Z OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...NEAR THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHILE DECENT FORCING LIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  AFTER SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF A BREAK...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM.
ONE CONCERN IS THAT MOST OF THE FORCING THAT OCCURS HAPPENS ABOVE
THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND WE STILL HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH SATURATION AT
18Z.  BY 21Z THOUGH WE SATURATE TO AT LEAST 700 MB AND SOME FORCING
DOES MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.  THE BEST AREA TO SEE THIS
IS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES.  AS YOU GO TOWARDS THE I-80
CORRIDOR THE FORCING IS NOT AS GOOD FOR AS LONG A PERIOD OF TIME
BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL MOVE FROM
ABOUT 14 TO 1 CLOSER TO 18 OR 19 TO 1.  THIS WILL HELP GIVE HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE SNOW SHOULD BE FLUFFY AND EASILY BLOWN
AROUND.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE WIND WITH IT BUT AGAIN THE WIND WILL NOT
BE EXTREMELY STRONG NOR WILL IT BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST
SNOWFALL. SO WHILE NOT A PERFECT SITUATION IT SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS TRAVEL... ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTH. UP
TOWARDS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CONDITIONS ARE STILL GOOD BUT NOT AS GOOD
AS FURTHER SOUTH.  WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM AND BY
THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 INCHES ON THE GROUND.  SINCE TRAVEL
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AS IT WILL HAPPEN
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE I HAVE PUT THE WINTER STORM WARNING UP TO
THE I-80 CORRIDOR.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE TO SEE IF SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS PAN OUT BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND DURING THE DRIVE
HOME WARRANTING THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL BUT WILL STILL SEE
BRISK WINDS AND COLD TEMPS.  IN FACT WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
WIND CHILL ISSUES BEYOND THE WINTER STORM.  I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 20 AND HIGHWAY 30.
THESE AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND
COMBINED WITH SOME WIND I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL
ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...MID WEEK WILL BE BITTER COLD WITH SUB ZERO LOWS AND
SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS.  BY FRIDAY A STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
TEMPERATURES...WHILE STILL COLD...WILL MODERATE INTO THE TEENS.
NONE OF THE MODELS NOW MATURE THIS INTO A CLOSED LOW BUT THEY STILL
VARY ON THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE AND THUS TIMING ISSUES ARISE AS
THE MORE DIGGING THAT OCCURS THE SLOWER THE WAVE LIFTS OUT.  THE GFS
IS STILL THE MOST BULLISH IN BRINGING PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH WHILE
THE EURO KEEP IT FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW I KEEP THE CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...04/00Z
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AT
SITES...HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING -SN AND MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS TO SITES BEGINNING NEAR 12Z AT WESTERN SITES
KFOD/KDSM BEFORE AFFECTING OTHER SITES NEAR 00Z. ANTICIPATE IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOWFALL...BUT HAVE TRENDED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LOW END MVFR AND IFR TOWARDS END OF PERIOD
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY HELP
REDUCE VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ADAIR-CASS-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-POLK-
POWESHIEK-WARREN.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-MARSHALL-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MONROE-RINGGOLD-
TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 440 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH
JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SW FLOW ADVECTING PLUME OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN US BORDER.

WINTER STORM ON TRACK TO IMPACT OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER
FOR SW PART OF THE CWA...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...AS TROUGH OVER WESTERN US ROUNDS THE BASE ON THE
ROCKIES IT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TWO COLD FRONTS
DROPPING SOUTH. THE FIRST WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
INITIALLY SNOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TIED TO LOBE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER SW COLORADO...WHICH WILL SHIFT NORTH AS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTH OVER KANSAS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
INSTABILITY IN THE SATURATED LAYER IN SNOW BAND THAT FORMS OVER
COLORADO...WHICH COULD SUPPORT MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATES ACROSS THE SW
PART OF OUR CWA. A CLOSED H7 LOW WILL FORM OVER KANSAS AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INDICATION OF A DEFORMATION BAND
FORMING ALONG THIS 700MB LOW...WITH DIFFERENCES IN ORIENTATION. THIS
DEFORMATION BAND WOULD BE THE MAIN SNOW PRODUCER FOR EASTERN
LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE
INITIAL BAND OVER COLORADO SHOULD WEAKEN AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS EAST...WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW OVERSPREADING
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEAKENING TREND...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE BAND IN SW COLORADO MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NORTH (CURRENTLY INDICATED BY 12Z NAM). IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR WE
WOULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA FURTHER NORTH IN THE CWA. AS IT STANDS
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE LOCATIONS
IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE BAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WOULD SEE 6-8
INCHES TOTAL...AND THIS IS WHERE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

IN ADDITION TO SNOW...BLOWING SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WE MAY NOT SEE THE HIGHEST
WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EAST...THOUGH WE COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA WITH AT LEAST
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...BUT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. AS THE SNOW ENDS ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
BRUTAL...ONE OF THE COLDEST STRETCHES IN RECENT MEMORY. WIND
CHILL WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EVERY DAY.
SOME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE SET...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND SKIES
CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND 15 BELOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
ZERO. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES. FINALLY START TO SEE SOME RIDGING ALOFT
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING NEXT MONDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 423 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS WILL BE LOW CEILINGS...LOW VISIBILITY...AND
SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE TOMORROW. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OVER KMCK WITH KGLD BECOMING MVFR AROUND
03Z. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIFT
IN PLACE...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN FOR KGLD AROUND 06Z AND KMCK AROUND
08Z. GFS GUIDANCE FOR KMCK HAD SNOWFALL STARTING SLIGHTLY LATER
THAN 08Z...SO WILL MONITOR HOW THAT SITUATION DEVELOPS. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS...VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY MID-MORNING...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15
TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
START AT KGLD AND KMCK AROUND 15Z. VISIBILITY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW COULD DROP TO 1/2SM WITH THE BLOWING SNOW. GFS GUIDANCE
HAD VISIBILITY AT 1/2SM...BUT VLIFR COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AS VISIBILITY COULD GO AS LOW AT 1/4SM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
     EVENING TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-
     013>016-028-029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 5
     PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ027-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
     TUESDAY FOR COZ090-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY
     FOR COZ092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
     EVENING TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1234 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TO SRN MN BOOSTING 850-700 MB RH AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 5K-6K FT BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN LES ACROSS ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WAS MOVING INTO NRN LUCE COUNTY
WHERE THE WAS THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER UPSTREAM. FARTHER
WEST...SOME MODERATE NW FLOW LES HAD ALSO DEVELOPED OFFSHORE FROM
MARQUETTE COUNTY WHERE THERE SEEMED TO BE ENOUGH GAPS IN THE ICE
COVER SO THAT LAND BREEZES COULD SUPPORT STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONV.
THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXTENSIVE ENOUGH
SO THAT ONLY LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS.

TODAY...EXPECT THE NW FLOW LES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE SHORE EAST OF
MUNISING. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. AS WINDS BACK AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP THIS
AFTERNOON...THE LES SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NW AND LIFT OFF SHORE
FROM THE NE CWA.

TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER NRN ONTARIO. SOME LES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY OVER NE LUCE COUNTY BEFORE WINDS BACK TO THE SW AND
PUSH THE SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE. WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL
DROP TO 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS ONLY AROUND 5 MPH...WIND CHILLS
WILL NOT BE SIGNFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BENIGN ZONAL FLOW UNTIL WED WHEN
MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT EVEN WITH
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS DEPICTED OVER THE
CWA.

A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IS SHOWN MOVING S OF THE CWA TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP TO THE CWA. THE
00Z/02 NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL FAR ENOUGH N WITH THE SYSTEM TO GIVE
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE CWA...SO THAT WAS CONSIDERED AN
OUTLIER...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS AT THE OF THE MODEL RUN. BESIDE
THAT SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS TO APPROACH THE AREA. WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE FOR WED
THROUGH SAT AND GOOD AGREEMENT /BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/ MON
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...USED A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
TO THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ABOVE ZERO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES AND THIS TREND
WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT TIMES WITH
MVFR TO LOWER VFR CIGS AT KCMX...BUT OTHERWISE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KSAW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LAKE SUPERIOR.
GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME PERIODS OF
FREEZING SPRAY WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER ANY REMAINING OPEN
WATER AREAS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 749 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TO SRN MN BOOSTING 850-700 MB RH AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 5K-6K FT BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN LES ACROSS ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WAS MOVING INTO NRN LUCE COUNTY
WHERE THE WAS THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER UPSTREAM. FARTHER
WEST...SOME MODERATE NW FLOW LES HAD ALSO DEVELOPED OFFSHORE FROM
MARQUETTE COUNTY WHERE THERE SEEMED TO BE ENOUGH GAPS IN THE ICE
COVER SO THAT LAND BREEZES COULD SUPPORT STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONV.
THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXTENSIVE ENOUGH
SO THAT ONLY LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS.

TODAY...EXPECT THE NW FLOW LES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE SHORE EAST OF
MUNISING. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. AS WINDS BACK AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP THIS
AFTERNOON...THE LES SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NW AND LIFT OFF SHORE
FROM THE NE CWA.

TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER NRN ONTARIO. SOME LES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY OVER NE LUCE COUNTY BEFORE WINDS BACK TO THE SW AND
PUSH THE SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE. WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL
DROP TO 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS ONLY AROUND 5 MPH...WIND CHILLS
WILL NOT BE SIGNFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BENIGN ZONAL FLOW UNTIL WED WHEN
MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT EVEN WITH
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS DEPICTED OVER THE
CWA.

A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IS SHOWN MOVING S OF THE CWA TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP TO THE CWA. THE
00Z/02 NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL FAR ENOUGH N WITH THE SYSTEM TO GIVE
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE CWA...SO THAT WAS CONSIDERED AN
OUTLIER...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS AT THE OF THE MODEL RUN. BESIDE
THAT SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS TO APPROACH THE AREA. WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE FOR WED
THROUGH SAT AND GOOD AGREEMENT /BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/ MON
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...USED A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
TO THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ABOVE ZERO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN TAF SITES WHILE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER KSAW. EXPECT
THE VERY LIGHT SNOW AT KSAW TO END THIS MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS DOWNSLOPE NW WINDS AND DRYING INCREASE.
IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT IWD AND FINALLY CMX BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LAKE SUPERIOR.
GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME PERIODS OF
FREEZING SPRAY WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER ANY REMAINING OPEN
WATER AREAS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 455 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TO SRN MN BOOSTING 850-700 MB RH AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 5K-6K FT BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN LES ACROSS ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WAS MOVING INTO NRN LUCE COUNTY
WHERE THE WAS THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER UPSTREAM. FARTHER
WEST...SOME MODERATE NW FLOW LES HAD ALSO DEVELOPED OFFSHORE FROM
MARQUETTE COUNTY WHERE THERE SEEMED TO BE ENOUGH GAPS IN THE ICE
COVER SO THAT LAND BREEZES COULD SUPPORT STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONV.
THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXTENSIVE ENOUGH
SO THAT ONLY LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS.

TODAY...EXPECT THE NW FLOW LES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE SHORE EAST OF
MUNISING. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. AS WINDS BACK AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP THIS
AFTERNOON...THE LES SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NW AND LIFT OFF SHORE
FROM THE NE CWA.

TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER NRN ONTARIO. SOME LES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY OVER NE LUCE COUNTY BEFORE WINDS BACK TO THE SW AND
PUSH THE SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE. WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL
DROP TO 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS ONLY AROUND 5 MPH...WIND CHILLS
WILL NOT BE SIGNFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BENIGN ZONAL FLOW UNTIL WED WHEN
MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT EVEN WITH
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS DEPICTED OVER THE
CWA.

A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IS SHOWN MOVING S OF THE CWA TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP TO THE CWA. THE
00Z/02 NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL FAR ENOUGH N WITH THE SYSTEM TO GIVE
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE CWA...SO THAT WAS CONSIDERED AN
OUTLIER...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS AT THE OF THE MODEL RUN. BESIDE
THAT SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS TO APPROACH THE AREA. WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE FOR WED
THROUGH SAT AND GOOD AGREEMENT /BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/ MON
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...USED A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
TO THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ABOVE ZERO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES WHILE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER KSAW. THE LES HAS BROUGHT IFR CIGS TO
KCMX AND AT TIMES HAS LOWERED VSBYS TO IFR AS WELL AS BETTER LES
BANDS MOVE OVER THAT LOCATION. VERY LIGHT SNOW AT KSAW TO END EARLY
IN THE FORECAST AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE NW
WINDS INCREASE. SNOW WILL NOT RESTRICT VSBYS AT KIWD DUE TO VERY
SHORT FETCH...HOWEVER CIGS TO HOLD IN LOWER MVFR RANGE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK. CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN WITH INCREASING 850-500 MB Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LAKE SUPERIOR.
GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME PERIODS OF
FREEZING SPRAY WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER ANY REMAINING OPEN
WATER AREAS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 1206 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

WINDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT TO 4 OR 5 MPH WITH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
AROUND -10F. SO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN PLACE UNTIL 16Z THIS
MORNING. A CHECK OF THE MESONET SUGGESTS LINCOLN COUNTY IS OKAY
AT THIS POINT WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPS -5F TO -7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLATTE VALLEY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A 100 FT CEILING AT NORTH
PLATTE. THIS THIN VEIL OF MOISTURE...IF IT PERSISTS...SHOULD MIX OUT
AFTER SUNRISE. THE RAP HAS MISPLACED THIS MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE CHEYENNE DIVIDE OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE. SFC OBS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN COLO. REGARDLESS...THE RAP
MOVES THIS MOISTURE EAST PRESUMABLY THRU SWRN NEB SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. ITS POSSIBLE DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE BEFORE SUNRISE.

WIND CHILL READINGS ARE CLOSE TO -20F ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF WINDS CAN
INCREASE THEN A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SNOW FIELD COVERING
SWRN NEB...NRN KS AND ERN NEB IS FCST TO MOVE EAST INTO MO/IL BY
MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH RIDGING FROM THE YUKON
SOUTH THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS
THE SNOW FIELD SOUTH AND 30S ACROSS THE SNOW-FREE NORTH. THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE ATM WELL MIXED TONIGHT AND LOWS FOLLOW IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH TO NEAR 10 ABOVE IN THE NORTH. THE MET GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED SUBZERO LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THIS HAS BEEN
SET ASIDE FOR NOW. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL SHOWS LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST WITH THE ONGOING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ARE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE MOISTURE RETURN IN
ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.  ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH A
140KT UPPER JET MAY TRIGGER SNOW PRODUCTION BY AFTERNOON...SPREADING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  HOWEVER A BETTER
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS SHOWN EARLY ON TUESDAY AS DPVA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SPREADS EAST NORTHEAST AND EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AFTER DAYLIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDERS.  WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE POP FORECAST UPWARD WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH 50-60% POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 TUESDAY.
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN POPS...WILL NOT VENTURE MUCH HIGHER WITH
EXPECTED QPF AS MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES ~0.15" ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS.  SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO NORMS AS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO DESPITE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN A 15:1 /OR HIGHER/ SLR.  FORCING SPREADS TO THE EAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW REMAINING...WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE DAY.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BECOME LIMITED TO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WITH THE UPPER LEVELS
TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL.   THERE IS HOWEVER A BETTER PRECIPITATION
SIGNAL LATE IN THE WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE NEXT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.  BOTH THE EC AND GFS...WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM...THUS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR NOW.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
INFILTRATE THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.  TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER AS H85 TEMPERATURES
FALL TO MINUS 20 OR COLDER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT ONLY IN THE TEENS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS FOR
OUR NORTH.  COLDER YET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.  HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  LOWS
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND QUITE POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
BELOW ZERO AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  NOTE
THAT IF ADDITIONAL FRESH SNOW WERE TO ADD TO THE SNOWPACK...THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD BE ANOMALOUSLY TOO WARM...THIS MAY BE A
CASE WHERE SOME LOCATIONS SEE THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE SEASON.
WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WOULD ALLOW FOR CRITICALLY LOW WIND CHILL
READINGS.  WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 732 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

WINDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT TO 4 OR 5 MPH WITH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
AROUND -10F. SO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN PLACE UNTIL 16Z THIS
MORNING. A CHECK OF THE MESONET SUGGESTS LINCOLN COUNTY IS OKAY
AT THIS POINT WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPS -5F TO -7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLATTE VALLEY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A 100 FT CEILING AT NORTH
PLATTE. THIS THIN VEIL OF MOISTURE...IF IT PERSISTS...SHOULD MIX OUT
AFTER SUNRISE. THE RAP HAS MISPLACED THIS MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE CHEYENNE DIVIDE OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE. SFC OBS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN COLO. REGARDLESS...THE RAP
MOVES THIS MOISTURE EAST PRESUMABLY THRU SWRN NEB SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. ITS POSSIBLE DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE BEFORE SUNRISE.

WIND CHILL READINGS ARE CLOSE TO -20F ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF WINDS CAN
INCREASE THEN A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SNOW FIELD COVERING
SWRN NEB...NRN KS AND ERN NEB IS FCST TO MOVE EAST INTO MO/IL BY
MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH RIDGING FROM THE YUKON
SOUTH THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS
THE SNOW FIELD SOUTH AND 30S ACROSS THE SNOW-FREE NORTH. THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE ATM WELL MIXED TONIGHT AND LOWS FOLLOW IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH TO NEAR 10 ABOVE IN THE NORTH. THE MET GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED SUBZERO LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THIS HAS BEEN
SET ASIDE FOR NOW. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL SHOWS LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST WITH THE ONGOING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ARE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE MOISTURE RETURN IN
ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.  ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH A
140KT UPPER JET MAY TRIGGER SNOW PRODUCTION BY AFTERNOON...SPREADING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  HOWEVER A BETTER
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS SHOWN EARLY ON TUESDAY AS DPVA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SPREADS EAST NORTHEAST AND EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AFTER DAYLIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDERS.  WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE POP FORECAST UPWARD WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH 50-60% POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 TUESDAY.
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN POPS...WILL NOT VENTURE MUCH HIGHER WITH
EXPECTED QPF AS MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES ~0.15" ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS.  SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO NORMS AS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO DESPITE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN A 15:1 /OR HIGHER/ SLR.  FORCING SPREADS TO THE EAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW REMAINING...WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE DAY.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BECOME LIMITED TO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WITH THE UPPER LEVELS
TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL.   THERE IS HOWEVER A BETTER PRECIPITATION
SIGNAL LATE IN THE WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE NEXT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.  BOTH THE EC AND GFS...WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM...THUS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR NOW.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
INFILTRATE THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.  TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER AS H85 TEMPERATURES
FALL TO MINUS 20 OR COLDER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT ONLY IN THE TEENS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS FOR
OUR NORTH.  COLDER YET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.  HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  LOWS
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND QUITE POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
BELOW ZERO AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  NOTE
THAT IF ADDITIONAL FRESH SNOW WERE TO ADD TO THE SNOWPACK...THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD BE ANOMALOUSLY TOO WARM...THIS MAY BE A
CASE WHERE SOME LOCATIONS SEE THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE SEASON.
WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WOULD ALLOW FOR CRITICALLY LOW WIND CHILL
READINGS.  WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO ILLINOIS WITH LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO WRN NEB.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FCST AREA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ038-056-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 511 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLATTE VALLEY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A 100 FT CEILING AT NORTH
PLATTE. THIS THIN VEIL OF MOISTURE...IF IT PERSISTS...SHOULD MIX OUT
AFTER SUNRISE. THE RAP HAS MISPLACED THIS MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE CHEYENNE DIVIDE OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE. SFC OBS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN COLO. REGARDLESS...THE RAP
MOVES THIS MOISTURE EAST PRESUMABLY THRU SWRN NEB SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. ITS POSSIBLE DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE BEFORE SUNRISE.

WIND CHILL READINGS ARE CLOSE TO -20F ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF WINDS CAN
INCREASE THEN A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SNOW FIELD COVERING
SWRN NEB...NRN KS AND ERN NEB IS FCST TO MOVE EAST INTO MO/IL BY
MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH RIDGING FROM THE YUKON
SOUTH THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS
THE SNOW FIELD SOUTH AND 30S ACROSS THE SNOW-FREE NORTH. THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE ATM WELL MIXED TONIGHT AND LOWS FOLLOW IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH TO NEAR 10 ABOVE IN THE NORTH. THE MET GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED SUBZERO LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THIS HAS BEEN
SET ASIDE FOR NOW. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL SHOWS LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST WITH THE ONGOING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ARE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE MOISTURE RETURN IN
ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.  ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH A
140KT UPPER JET MAY TRIGGER SNOW PRODUCTION BY AFTERNOON...SPREADING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  HOWEVER A BETTER
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS SHOWN EARLY ON TUESDAY AS DPVA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SPREADS EAST NORTHEAST AND EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AFTER DAYLIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDERS.  WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE POP FORECAST UPWARD WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH 50-60% POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 TUESDAY.
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN POPS...WILL NOT VENTURE MUCH HIGHER WITH
EXPECTED QPF AS MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES ~0.15" ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS.  SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO NORMS AS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO DESPITE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN A 15:1 /OR HIGHER/ SLR.  FORCING SPREADS TO THE EAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW REMAINING...WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE DAY.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BECOME LIMITED TO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WITH THE UPPER LEVELS
TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL.   THERE IS HOWEVER A BETTER PRECIPITATION
SIGNAL LATE IN THE WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE NEXT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.  BOTH THE EC AND GFS...WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM...THUS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR NOW.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
INFILTRATE THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.  TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER AS H85 TEMPERATURES
FALL TO MINUS 20 OR COLDER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT ONLY IN THE TEENS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS FOR
OUR NORTH.  COLDER YET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.  HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  LOWS
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND QUITE POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
BELOW ZERO AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  NOTE
THAT IF ADDITIONAL FRESH SNOW WERE TO ADD TO THE SNOWPACK...THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD BE ANOMALOUSLY TOO WARM...THIS MAY BE A
CASE WHERE SOME LOCATIONS SEE THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE SEASON.
WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WOULD ALLOW FOR CRITICALLY LOW WIND CHILL
READINGS.  WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO ILLINOIS WITH LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO WRN NEB.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 325 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLATTE VALLEY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A 100 FT CEILING AT NORTH
PLATTE. THIS THIN VEIL OF MOISTURE...IF IT PERSISTS...SHOULD MIX OUT
AFTER SUNRISE. THE RAP HAS MISPLACED THIS MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE CHEYENNE DIVIDE OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE. SFC OBS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN COLO. REGARDLESS...THE RAP
MOVES THIS MOISTURE EAST PRESUMABLY THRU SWRN NEB SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. ITS POSSIBLE DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE BEFORE SUNRISE.

WIND CHILL READINGS ARE CLOSE TO -20F ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF WINDS CAN
INCREASE THEN A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SNOW FIELD COVERING
SWRN NEB...NRN KS AND ERN NEB IS FCST TO MOVE EAST INTO MO/IL BY
MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH RIDGING FROM THE YUKON
SOUTH THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS
THE SNOW FIELD SOUTH AND 30S ACROSS THE SNOW-FREE NORTH. THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE ATM WELL MIXED TONIGHT AND LOWS FOLLOW IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH TO NEAR 10 ABOVE IN THE NORTH. THE MET GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED SUBZERO LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THIS HAS BEEN
SET ASIDE FOR NOW. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL SHOWS LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST WITH THE ONGOING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ARE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE MOISTURE RETURN IN
ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.  ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH A
140KT UPPER JET MAY TRIGGER SNOW PRODUCTION BY AFTERNOON...SPREADING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  HOWEVER A BETTER
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS SHOWN EARLY ON TUESDAY AS DPVA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SPREADS EAST NORTHEAST AND EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AFTER DAYLIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDERS.  WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE POP FORECAST UPWARD WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH 50-60% POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 TUESDAY.
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN POPS...WILL NOT VENTURE MUCH HIGHER WITH
EXPECTED QPF AS MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES ~0.15" ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS.  SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO NORMS AS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO DESPITE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN A 15:1 /OR HIGHER/ SLR.  FORCING SPREADS TO THE EAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW REMAINING...WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE DAY.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BECOME LIMITED TO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WITH THE UPPER LEVELS
TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL.   THERE IS HOWEVER A BETTER PRECIPITATION
SIGNAL LATE IN THE WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE NEXT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.  BOTH THE EC AND GFS...WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM...THUS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR NOW.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
INFILTRATE THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.  TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER AS H85 TEMPERATURES
FALL TO MINUS 20 OR COLDER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT ONLY IN THE TEENS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS FOR
OUR NORTH.  COLDER YET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.  HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  LOWS
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND QUITE POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
BELOW ZERO AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  NOTE
THAT IF ADDITIONAL FRESH SNOW WERE TO ADD TO THE SNOWPACK...THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD BE ANOMALOUSLY TOO WARM...THIS MAY BE A
CASE WHERE SOME LOCATIONS SEE THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE SEASON.
WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WOULD ALLOW FOR CRITICALLY LOW WIND CHILL
READINGS.  WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS SUNDAY
EVENING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 317 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW SHOWERS
THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL AFFECT THE
AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER THEN RETURNS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM BY LATER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SUNDAY...A GENERALLY QUIET NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE
AREA AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE LARGE-SCALE HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY THE
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTH SO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SPRINKLES AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER BEINGS TO
DRY OUT MORE CONSIDERABLY LATER TONIGHT. HIGHEST THREAT OF ANY
PCPN WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST.
GIVEN THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT
LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SHOWING MIN TEMPS IN THE 12
TO 22 RANGE WITH MILDEST READINGS CENTRAL/SOUTH AND COLDEST FAR
NORTH WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIKELY LATE. WINDS LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO NEARLY CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SUNDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WINDS
ALOFT GENERALLY ZONAL/WESTERLY SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
RESEMBLING THE COLD SURGES OF LAST MONTH...BUT NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES OF 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE DAY AND 2 TO 12 ABOVE AT NIGHT
LOOK FAIRLY REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. MOST VARIABILITY LIKELY TO
OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN CENTER OF HIGH BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERNIGHT
AND NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFECTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SLOPE/DRAINAGE
FLOWS WILL BE LIKELY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT LATEST SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN
REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING A FAIRLY ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
SHOULD ENSURE THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...BUT EVIDENCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AMPLE GOMEX
MOISTURE PLUME. THERMAL PROGS ALSO REMAIN PLENTY COLD SO PRIOR IDEA
OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVERSPREADING OUR AREA FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ALREADY ON THE GROUND BY SUNRISE..ESP
SOUTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR MOST SPOTS.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT WL
IMPACT OUR CWA WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT. OVERALL...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE
IS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S 00Z AND YESTERDAY`S 12Z RUNS WITH
EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND BLW AVERAGE
SPREAD...RESULTING IN ABOVE ABOVE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR
UPCOMING SNOW EVENT.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS WL
PROGRESS EAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT HELPS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS SFC LOW
PRES IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM WESTERN TN ON 00Z WEDS TO PITTSBURGH
PA BY 12Z WEDS AND JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY 00Z THURS. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND LATEST 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THIS
TRACK...WHILE 15Z SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE 50 TO 75 MILES FURTHER NORTH
AND SHOW MORE LIFT/MOISTURE AND QPF ACRS OUR CWA. THE CONVECTION
ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES ON TUES WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR POSSIBLE BUILDING OF STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACRS THE SE CONUS...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES. WL KEEP TWD
CONSISTENCY BUT BLEND SOME SREF/NAM QPF FIELDS INTO OUR
GRIDS...WHICH SHOWS AMOUNTS BTWN 0.10 AND 0.25 INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TO 0.50 TO 0.75" RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH TO 6 TO 12 INCHES
SOUTH...WITH DACKS INTO CENTRAL VT GETTING 3 TO 9 INCHES AT FIRST
GUESS. THIS WL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE...AS ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK WL
HAVE IMPACTS ON QPF/SNOWFALL.

GIVEN THE POSITION OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CANADA AND
LOCATION OF BERMUDA HIGH TYPE FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WL
RESULT IN A VERY FAST PROGRESSIVE FLW ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS THRU
DAY 7 AND NO CLOSED 7H/5H CIRCULATION FOR UPCOMING SYSTEM ON WEDS.
IN ADDITION...BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 25H POLAR JET OF 180 TO
200 KNOTS ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH INITIALLY WL HELP WITH
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEPS SYSTEM VERY
PROGRESSIVE. GFS SHOWS BEST PWS OF >0.50" LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND NOW...ALONG WITH STRONG 850 TO 700MB FGEN FORCING AND
LLVL THETA E CONVERGENCE. ALSO...HAVE NOTED STRONGEST CORE OF 85H
WINDS MOVE FROM SOUTHERN PA TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DURING THE
EVENT...WITH BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF 850 TO 500MB RH AVAILABLE ACRS
OUR CWA...ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT FROM POTENT 5H VORT
MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. THINKING HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS EARLY WEDS MORNING AND
TAPERS OFF BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING ON WEDS. SOUNDING PROFILES
SUPPORT A MODERATE FLUFF FACTOR WITH RATIOS AROUND 12 TO 1 VALLEYS
AND 16 TO 1 ABOVE 1500 FEET FOR WEDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C SUPPORT HIGHS TEENS MTNS TO 20S VALLEYS ON WEDS.

FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY...FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT CONTS WITH BROAD
SFC HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NE CONUS.
THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND
SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS. A WEAK 5H VORT MAY PRODUCE A FEW MTN
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. NEXT LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SNOW. BOTH GFS/ECWMF
SHOW PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PROGRESSIVE
MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN CONTINUING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TRACK
OF SFC LOW PRES AND MAGNITUDE OF 5H/7H TROF AS SYSTEM EJECTS
FROM INTER MOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY. WL MENTION CHC POPS LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY AND FINE TUNE FCST AS EVENT BECOMES CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THRU THIS EVENING WL BE
POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AT RUT AND WHEN LOW CLOUD IFR CIGS LIFT AT SLK.
CRNT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRNT ACRS CENTRAL VT INTO
CENTRAL NY ATTM...WITH LATEST GOES IFR PROB SATL IMAGERY SHOWING
LIKELY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACRS THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS AND
PARTS OF THE DACKS. THIS TREND COMBINED WITH LATEST RAP 13 AND
BTV6 SHOWING LLVL RH INCREASING AND LCL FALLING AT RUTLAND BLW
1000 FT SUPPORT IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BTWN 19Z-21Z TODAY. BTV WL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS THIS AFTN. IN
ADDITION...RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WHICH MAY IMPACT
RUT/MPV/SLK TAFS THRU THIS AFTN/EVENING. HAVE USED A TEMPO BTWN
20-24Z TO INDICATE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS IN -RASN. AT SLK WL USE
PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS THRU 00Z...COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS BTWN 19Z-21Z PER LATEST RAP13. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500 FEET...WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION...LLVL DRYING WL OCCUR AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FROM 18Z MONDAY THRU 06Z WEDS. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VIS IN HZ/BR IS POSSIBLE AT SLK TUESDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
SNOW DEVELOPS BTWN 09Z-12Z WEDS WITH IFR AND LOCALLY LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH VIS BLW 1SM AND CIGS BTWN 1000 AND 2500 FT.
CLRING TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURSDAY...AS SYSTEM
RACES NORTHEAST.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 710 PM EST SATURDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS)
AT THE KNAPP STATE AIRPORT IN BARRE-MONTPELIER VERMONT (KMPV) HAS
NOT TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION FROM THIS SITE SINCE 1551Z ON
FEBRUARY 1ST. THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION (FAA) HAS
INFORMED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THAT THIS IS DUE A TELEPHONE
COMMUNICATIONS LINE ISSUE. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE WILL BE RESTORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 1251 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND REMAINS INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
COASTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 913 AM EST SUNDAY...MADE SOME WHOLESALE CHANGES TO POPS/WX AS
WE PROGRESS INTO TODAY/TONIGHT BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC FRONT NOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WITH BEST MOISTURE NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY INTO CENTRAL/SRN NEW ENGLAND.
FEEL WITH LATEST TRENDS IN THE BTV4 AND RAP PROGS...BEST FOCUS FOR
PCPN SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SCT LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MODEST COLD THERMAL ADVECTION ACT WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. IN ALL CASES PCPN WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER BEST
SHOT OF ADDL ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS. ELSEWHERE AN INCH OR LESS AND
MAINLY HIGHER ELEV OF THE DACKS/NRN GREENS. WITH SFC FRONT SAGGING
THROUGH THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE CASE OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...OR GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY FOR CENTRAL/NRN AREAS. BY EARLY EVENING READINGS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH
UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED
SOUTH.

BY TONIGHT ANY LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL BE ENDING AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST FROM SC CANADA/GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT BEST SHOT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND
PERHAPS NRN MTNS...WITH AT LEAST SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER SOUTH.
LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING 5 TO 15 ABOVE NORTH AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
AMT OF CLEARING...AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 ABOVE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST SUNDAY...FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST REGION PROVIDING A NICE 48-HR...PRECIP-
FREE STRETCH. DO EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE AREA STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO
WILL GO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL BY A DEGREE OR TWO AREA-WIDE.
OVERALL....HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 20S WITH SPOTS 30F IN THE
CVLY/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY ZERO TO
10 ABV...WITH SOME NEG SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE DACKS AND FAR NE
KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE 00Z CYCLE AND BELOW AVERAGE SPREAD IN 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEPING THE EXTENDED FCST RELATIVELY STABLE.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EXPECTED SNOWFALL DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06-12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THRU THE DAY. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-MS AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OFF
THE NJ COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...KEEPING LOW-LEVEL NELY TO
NLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE AN
ALL SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS TEMP
PROFILES. WE/VE DISREGARDED THE WARMER 00Z NAM AT THIS
POINT...WHICH TENDS TO HAVE POORER VERIFICATION OF PARENT SYNOPTIC
FEATURES TOWARD 84-HRS. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND QG FORCING ALLOWS SNOW
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW-NE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY. 700MB
TROUGH REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE...THUS SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY QUICK
MOVING WITH SNOWFALL TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD WEDNESDAY
EVENING. GIVEN TRACK OF LOW OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...ANTICIPATED HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODEL QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AROUND 0.25"
NEAR THE INTL BORDER UP TO 0.75" ACROSS SRN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES...WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE BASED ON PW VALUES AND SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM. IF THESE TRENDS HOLD...PROBABLY LOOKING AT A 6-10"
SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT WITH GENERALLY 3-6" IN THE
BTV AREA...NRN VT AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY SEE A BIT LESS
IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHEST REMOVED FROM
ANTICIPATED LOW TRACK. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND POTENTIAL SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM
THE PRE-DAWN HRS WEDNESDAY RIGHT THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS. WE/LL
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID-UPR 20S.

SYNOPTIC LOW DEPARTS QUICKLY EWD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FOLLOWED
BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS THURSDAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE SHIFTING INTO NRN NY BY 12Z THU...SO MAY SEE SOME GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TOWARD DAWN WITH THE EXPECTED FRESH SNOWPACK.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IF
CLEARING OCCURS AS EXPECTED.

GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THU-SAT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING
THRU FROM N-S FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THRU THIS EVENING WL BE
POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AT RUT AND WHEN LOW CLOUD IFR CIGS LIFT AT SLK.
CRNT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRNT ACRS CENTRAL VT INTO
CENTRAL NY ATTM...WITH LATEST GOES IFR PROB SATL IMAGERY SHOWING
LIKELY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACRS THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS AND
PARTS OF THE DACKS. THIS TREND COMBINED WITH LATEST RAP 13 AND
BTV6 SHOWING LLVL RH INCREASING AND LCL FALLING AT RUTLAND BLW
1000 FT SUPPORT IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BTWN 19Z-21Z TODAY. BTV WL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS THIS AFTN. IN
ADDITION...RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WHICH MAY IMPACT
RUT/MPV/SLK TAFS THRU THIS AFTN/EVENING. HAVE USED A TEMPO BTWN
20-24Z TO INDICATE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS IN -RASN. AT SLK WL USE
PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS THRU 00Z...COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS BTWN 19Z-21Z PER LATEST RAP13. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500 FEET...WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION...LLVL DRYING WL OCCUR AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FROM 18Z MONDAY THRU 06Z WEDS. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VIS IN HZ/BR IS POSSIBLE AT SLK TUESDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
SNOW DEVELOPS BTWN 09Z-12Z WEDS WITH IFR AND LOCALLY LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH VIS BLW 1SM AND CIGS BTWN 1000 AND 2500 FT.
CLRING TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURSDAY...AS SYSTEM
RACES NORTHEAST.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 710 PM EST SATURDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS)
AT THE KNAPP STATE AIRPORT IN BARRE-MONTPELIER VERMONT (KMPV) HAS
NOT TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION FROM THIS SITE SINCE 1551Z ON
FEBRUARY 1ST. THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION (FAA) HAS
INFORMED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THAT THIS IS DUE A TELEPHONE
COMMUNICATIONS LINE ISSUE. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE WILL BE RESTORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 913 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND REMAINS INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
COASTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 913 AM EST SUNDAY...MADE SOME WHOLESALE CHANGES TO POPS/WX AS
WE PROGRESS INTO TODAY/TONIGHT BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC FRONT NOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WITH BEST MOISTURE NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY INTO CENTRAL/SRN NEW ENGLAND.
FEEL WITH LATEST TRENDS IN THE BTV4 AND RAP PROGS...BEST FOCUS FOR
PCPN SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SCT LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MODEST COLD THERMAL ADVECTION ACT WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. IN ALL CASES PCPN WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER BEST
SHOT OF ADDL ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS. ELSEWHERE AN INCH OR LESS AND
MAINLY HIGHER ELEV OF THE DACKS/NRN GREENS. WITH SFC FRONT SAGGING
THROUGH THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE CASE OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...OR GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY FOR CENTRAL/NRN AREAS. BY EARLY EVENING READINGS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH
UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED
SOUTH.

BY TONIGHT ANY LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL BE ENDING AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST FROM SC CANADA/GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT BEST SHOT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND
PERHAPS NRN MTNS...WITH AT LEAST SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER SOUTH.
LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING 5 TO 15 ABOVE NORTH AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
AMT OF CLEARING...AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 ABOVE SOUTH.




&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST SUNDAY...FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST REGION PROVIDING A NICE 48-HR...PRECIP-
FREE STRETCH. DO EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE AREA STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO
WILL GO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL BY A DEGREE OR TWO AREA-WIDE.
OVERALL....HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 20S WITH SPOTS 30F IN THE
CVLY/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY ZERO TO
10 ABV...WITH SOME NEG SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE DACKS AND FAR NE
KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE 00Z CYCLE AND BELOW AVERAGE SPREAD IN 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEPING THE EXTENDED FCST RELATIVELY STABLE.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EXPECTED SNOWFALL DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06-12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THRU THE DAY. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-MS AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OFF
THE NJ COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...KEEPING LOW-LEVEL NELY TO
NLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE AN
ALL SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS TEMP
PROFILES. WE/VE DISREGARDED THE WARMER 00Z NAM AT THIS
POINT...WHICH TENDS TO HAVE POORER VERIFICATION OF PARENT SYNOPTIC
FEATURES TOWARD 84-HRS. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND QG FORCING ALLOWS SNOW
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW-NE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY. 700MB
TROUGH REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE...THUS SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY QUICK
MOVING WITH SNOWFALL TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD WEDNESDAY
EVENING. GIVEN TRACK OF LOW OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...ANTICIPATED HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODEL QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AROUND 0.25"
NEAR THE INTL BORDER UP TO 0.75" ACROSS SRN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES...WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE BASED ON PW VALUES AND SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM. IF THESE TRENDS HOLD...PROBABLY LOOKING AT A 6-10"
SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT WITH GENERALLY 3-6" IN THE
BTV AREA...NRN VT AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY SEE A BIT LESS
IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHEST REMOVED FROM
ANTICIPATED LOW TRACK. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND POTENTIAL SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM
THE PRE-DAWN HRS WEDNESDAY RIGHT THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS. WE/LL
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID-UPR 20S.

SYNOPTIC LOW DEPARTS QUICKLY EWD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FOLLOWED
BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS THURSDAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE SHIFTING INTO NRN NY BY 12Z THU...SO MAY SEE SOME GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TOWARD DAWN WITH THE EXPECTED FRESH SNOWPACK.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IF
CLEARING OCCURS AS EXPECTED.

GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THU-SAT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING
THRU FROM N-S FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...OVC W/ LCL IFR CONDS MSS/SLK TIL 15Z. FEW
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AS WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THRU THE REGION
AROUND MIDDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. GENERALLY VFR CIGS ALL TAF
SITES AFT 16Z... EXCEPT LCL MVFR CIGS MPV/SLK. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BECOMING W-NW 5-7 KTS THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FROM 12Z MONDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY.
GENERALLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
NEWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REDEVELOP EAST OF NJ
DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY...AND PERSISTING THRU
THE DAYLIGHT HRS BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WED
EVE/NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH
IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY IFR 09-22Z WEDNESDAY IN LOW
VSBY/CIGS OWING TO SNOWFALL. IMPROVING BACK TO VFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 710 PM EST SATURDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS)
AT THE KNAPP STATE AIRPORT IN BARRE-MONTPELIER VERMONT (KMPV) HAS
NOT TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION FROM THIS SITE SINCE 1551Z ON
FEBRUARY 1ST. THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION (FAA) HAS
INFORMED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THAT THIS IS DUE A TELEPHONE
COMMUNICATIONS LINE ISSUE. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE WILL BE RESTORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 630 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WILL END BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE HEADING INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SURFACE
WAVE THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING HEADWAY EAST ACROSS WESTERN NY...
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TO BEGIN. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS THE FIRST
SURFACE WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS LEAVES AN AREA OF
RETURNS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE STRONGER
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS IN PLACE. MOST OF THIS HAS CHANGED
OVER TO WET SNOW AS OF 11Z...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN IS STILL FOUND
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALLEGANY COUNTY. THIS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITHIN THE
NEXT TWO HOURS.

ANOTHER SUBTLE/WEAK BAROCLINIC WAVE MAY RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
SUGGESTED IN THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN GEM AND HRRR MODEL
RUNS...WITH A NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE PRECIP SHIELD BRIEFLY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES AT THIS TIME...AND HAND 500MB
ANALYSIS VERIFIED THIS FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN POPS AGAIN DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL
REGION. PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME. BETWEEN THE LINGERING
MORNING ACTIVITY AND THE SECONDARY WAVE EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH
ACCUMULATION IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NY.

AS FAR AS HEADLINES GO...THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 15Z. THIS WAS
INITIALLY ISSUED DUE TO SOME REPORTS OF ICY ROADS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT...BUT AFTER THE
FRIGID WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING
BEHIND. THIS ADVISORY WILL COVER ANY LINGERING ICY SPOTS...AND THE
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WHICH MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ICY SPOTS. IF
THE SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE ENDS UP BEING A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SNOWFALL WISE...THIS ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS TO COVER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION COUNTERACTING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LINGERING MID 30S IN CENTRAL
NY.

TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING CLOSER TO
THE PA STATE LINE WHERE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RUN ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST
PLACES AND FEW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES IN THE
MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH A WEAK
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAY GENERATE
SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER
NEW YORK STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE NATION`S INTERIOR.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND REACH THE
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH TOWARD WESTERN PA
TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA FAIRLY
QUICKLY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT AN ENERGETIC WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PATH OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SHOW UP FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE INTEGRITY OF THE
WESTERN PA LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING THE ENERGY TO
A LOW THAT WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS TRANSFER THE ENERGY TO THE COASTAL LOW
SOONER. THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER BY TRACKING THE MAIN CENTER OF
THE LOW MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE FELT ACROSS PA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.
HOWEVER...THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE 850 MB LOW STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...WITH ADVISORY
TYPE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER
GENESEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HWO AND WAIT
FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS.

A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DECREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH A DEEPER MID CONTINENT TROUGH DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM SOME SNOW THAT MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THIS LOW SETTLES OFF THE EAST COAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON INCLUDING KJHW. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY. A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS KBUF-KIAG-KROC
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH SOME LIGHT BR ADDING TO MVFR VSBY AT TIMES.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MVFR CATEGORY.

THE SNOW WILL END THIS AFTERNOON...AND CIGS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE AND
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN SNOW.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE LAKE. LATER TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RARE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS IN MID WINTER. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 328 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WILL END BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE HEADING INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SURFACE
WAVE THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING HEADWAY EAST ACROSS WESTERN NY...
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TO BEGIN. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH AN AREA
OF BETTER RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN NY. MUCH OF THIS IS RAIN AT 08Z...
WITH FAR WESTERN NY NOW OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK IN.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS ARE ALSO SEEING WET SNOW.

LATEST SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST
THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE GENESEE
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 12Z AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS AWAY.
THUS EXPECT THE RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA TO MAINLY END...OR AT LEAST TAPER TO VERY LIGHT
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. FARTHER WEST...ENOUGH
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE OVER TO
ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING AS COLD AIR DEEPENS.

ANOTHER SUBTLE/WEAK BAROCLINIC WAVE MAY RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
SUGGESTED IN THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN GEM AND HRRR MODEL
RUNS...WITH A NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE PRECIP SHIELD BRIEFLY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES AT THIS TIME...AND HAND 500MB
ANALYSIS VERIFIED THIS FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN POPS AGAIN DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL
REGION. PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME. BETWEEN THE LINGERING
MORNING ACTIVITY AND THE SECONDARY WAVE EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH
ACCUMULATION IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NY.

AS FAR AS HEADLINES GO...WILL DROP THE ADVISORY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT STEADIER PRECIP WILL END THERE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE PULLS AWAY. THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 15Z. THIS
WAS INITIALLY ISSUED DUE TO SOME REPORTS OF ICY ROADS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT...BUT AFTER THE
FRIGID WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING
BEHIND. THIS ADVISORY WILL COVER ANY LINGERING ICY SPOTS...AND THE
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WHICH MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ICY SPOTS. IF
THE SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE ENDS UP BEING A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SNOWFALL WISE...THIS ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS TO
COVER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION COUNTERACTING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LINGERING MID 30S IN CENTRAL
NY.

TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING CLOSER TO
THE PA STATE LINE WHERE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RUN ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST
PLACES AND FEW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES IN THE
MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH A WEAK
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAY GENERATE
SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER
NEW YORK STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE NATION`S INTERIOR.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND REACH THE
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH TOWARD WESTERN PA
TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA FAIRLY
QUICKLY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT AN ENERGETIC WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PATH OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SHOW UP FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE INTEGRITY OF THE
WESTERN PA LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING THE ENERGY TO
A LOW THAT WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS TRANSFER THE ENERGY TO THE COASTAL LOW
SOONER. THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER BY TRACKING THE MAIN CENTER OF
THE LOW MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE FELT ACROSS PA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.
HOWEVER...THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE 850 MB LOW STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...WITH ADVISORY
TYPE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER
GENESEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE HWO AND WAIT
FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS.

A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DECREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH A DEEPER MID CONTINENT TROUGH DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM SOME SNOW THAT MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THIS LOW SETTLES OFF THE EAST COAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS WIDESPREAD MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND...WITH
POCKETS OF IFR IN SNOW. AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD PRECIPITATION
IS LARGELY PLAIN RAIN...WITH SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE TUG HILL...AND ALSO JUST TO THE WEST OF NYS ACROSS
THE NIAGARA PENINSULA. EXPECT RAIN TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN
THE TAF CYCLE ACROSS WNY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS JUST PAST DAWN
ACROSS FAR WNY...AND MID MORNING ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THESE CIGS WILL ONLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING BACK TO VFR. AS DRY AIR
FILTERS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SAVE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE LAKE. LATER TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RARE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS IN MID WINTER. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 117 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
CONFIRM THAT THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AT THE SFC ALLOWING DRIER TO MIX IN.
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM...THE MAJORITY OF THE SKIES ACROSS THE FA WILL
OBSERVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE UPPED THIS AFTN MAX TEMP BY 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES. EARLY FEB INSOLATION AND A WESTERLY WIND TO AID IN
PUSHING MAX TEMPS TODAY TO AT LEAST BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES. SEA
FOG HAS YET TO REALLY MATERIALIZE...ALONG WITH THE 60+ DEWPOINTS.
HAVE CANCELED THE DENSE SEA FOG ADV FOR THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT PATCHES OF SEA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THAT
COULD PARTIALLY MOVE ONSHORE BASED ON THE SSW-WSW LOW LEVEL
STEERING WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A 500 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE SE
COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WEST TEXAS MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. HERE AT THE SURFACE THE OLD
ARCTIC FRONT THAT BROUGHT US COLD AND ICE LAST WEEK STALLED DOWN
OVER THE BAHAMAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT HAS RETURNED NORTH TO A
POSITION ABOUT 50-70 MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AS SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

A COOL AND COMPLETELY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS PRODUCED
PLENTY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE TOP OF THIS CLOUD DECK RANGES FROM 2000 FT AGL INLAND
TO NEARLY 10000 FT OVER ILM...BUT SHOULD THIN FROM THE TOP DOWN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. TIMING THE BREAKUP OF THESE LOW CLOUDS IS GOING
TO BE KEY TO GETTING CLOSE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITHOUT
CLOUDS THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S QUITE EASILY. BEYOND 11:00 AM EVERY HOUR WE CAN MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUD COVER WILL CUT A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THAT POTENTIAL. I AM
TENTATIVELY FORECASTING HIGHS TO REACH 60-65 TODAY (WARMEST SOUTH OF
FLORENCE AND CONWAY) BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. 06Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE SAME DIFFERENCES AS THEIR 00Z COUNTERPARTS WITH THE GFS
WARM AND NAM AND RUC MUCH COOLER. AS LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEA FOG BECOMING MORE
PREVALENT. FOR AREAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST WIND IS ONSHORE (NE HORRY AND
BRUNSWICK COUNTIES) THIS MEANS CLOUDS AND FOG COULD PERSIST ALL
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 50S.

PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO REDEVELOP QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COULD BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
FLORENCE AND MARION. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
LOWS SHOULD FALL TO 48-53...WARMEST NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE WAVE PASSING WEST OF THE AREA
DURING MON WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE
IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IT WILL ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING SOUTH. COLD PUSH BEHIND THE
FRONT IS RATHER WEAK AND SURFACE BOUNDARY QUICKLY ENDS UP PARALLEL
TO STEERING FLOW. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE COAST FROM
THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW OVERCAST AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE
DURING THE DAY TUE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY TUE EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY
TUE NIGHT IT LIFTS THE STALLED FRONT/TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUE NIGHT WITH
TEMPS LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. TUE HIGHS...WHICH WILL END UP BELOW
CLIMO IN MOST PLACES...ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT TUE HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
TUE NIGHT LOWS. WEAK CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR TUE
NIGHT BUT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. STILL THE
PRESENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WARRANTS
CONTINUATION OF INHERITED CHC POP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ONGOING STRONG WARM ADVECTION AS THE PERIOD
BEGINS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WED DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING WED BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT LINE SEEM LIKELY JUST AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL JETTING BUT IT IS ON THE WEAK SIDE. AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE CAROLINAS IN WINTER CAPE WILL BE LACKING.
RIGHT NOW THE EVENT APPEARS RATHER BENIGN AS FAR AS STRONGER STORMS
GO BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

IMPRESSIVE PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS WED NIGHT BEHIND THE
EXITING FRONT AND CONTINUES INTO THU AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING.
TEMPS WILL DROP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER WEDGE EVENT LATE
IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EJECTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND TIGHTENING UP THE WEDGE OVER THE EAST COAST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS FRI AND STRENGTHENS SAT. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE LIFT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHC POP FRI AND INCREASE POP TO LOW CHC FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CURRENT TRENDS ARE HOLDING...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
PRESENT SET OF TAFS. LOOK FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME EROSION IN THE CLOUDS DUE TO
SOLAR INSOLATION. THE NAM BELIEVES THERE WILL BE SOME HOLES IN THE
CEILING BY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS US SOCKED IN THE ENTIRE
DAY. THINK WE WILL SEE SOME BROKEN SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...STILL A
MVFR CEILING. RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FEED THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...ANY MVFR CONDITIONS LEFTOVER WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE
COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR ON MONDAY. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
FEATURES THAT COULD RESEMBLE SEA FOG OR LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. BUT FOR MOST PART...IT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED INTO A
COVERAGE THAT IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DENSE
SEA FOG ADV. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE SEA FOG ADV.
WILL RE-LOOK AT ITS POSSIBILITY FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELATIVELY LOOSE GRADIENT TO YIELD
MAINLY A SSW-SW FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NW WILL TIGHTEN THE SFC PG ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE TO A RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 3 TO 4 FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. THE 2 TO 3 FOOT ESE-SE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS...WILL DOMINATE THE SIG.
SEAS SPECTRUM. VERY LITTLE INPUT WILL COME FROM LOCALLY PRODUCED
WIND DRIVEN WAVES UNTIL TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 15 KT MON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST MON EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH IT BUT STRENGTH IS LIMITED
AND INITIALLY SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. GRADIENT
STARTS TO BECOME MORE DEFINED TUE MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED TUE
AS COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS AND SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. AS A RESULT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN A SOLID 15 KT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF 5 FT SEAS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH 25 KT AT TIMES ON WED. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS WED EVENING WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. COMBINATION OF PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT INTO THU AFTERNOON. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN GRADIENT
AND WANING COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP NORTHEAST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. SCA SEAS LINGER INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS ABLE TO KNOCK SEAS BACK TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WE ARE NOW TWO DAYS PAST THE NEW MOON BUT
UNUSUALLY LOW WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AT LOW TIDE TODAY.
ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 3:15 THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
ETSURGE/ESTOFS CONSENSUS IS FOR WATER LEVELS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO
REACH -1.30 FEET MLLW...WITH LESSER DEPARTURES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 1058 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SUNDAY...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO DISPERSE. MOIST
AIR MASS OVER COLD GROUNDS AND CALM WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS DECK TO PERSIST THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS...AND MAY
TAKE UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS INCREASING SW-W WINDS FINALLY
MATERIALIZE AT THE SFC. SEA FOG HAS YET TO FULLY MATERIALIZE DUE TO
THE DELAY OF THE MILDER 60+ DEWPOINTS ADVECTING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE IN THE 40S. VIA VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY
AND SFC OBS...THE COASTAL COUNTIES HAVE BROKEN OUT FROM THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. THE DAYS INSOLATION HAS ALREADY PUSHED SFC TEMPS
WELL UP INTO THE 50S. AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS WILL BE RE-ALIGNED
WITH LOW TO MID 60S BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE UPPED MAX TEMPS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE DELAY OF THE SEA FOG
MATERIALIZING AND PARTIALLY PUSHING ONSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A 500 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE SE
COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WEST TEXAS MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. HERE AT THE SURFACE THE OLD
ARCTIC FRONT THAT BROUGHT US COLD AND ICE LAST WEEK STALLED DOWN
OVER THE BAHAMAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT HAS RETURNED NORTH TO A
POSITION ABOUT 50-70 MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AS SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

A COOL AND COMPLETELY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS PRODUCED
PLENTY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE TOP OF THIS CLOUD DECK RANGES FROM 2000 FT AGL INLAND
TO NEARLY 10000 FT OVER ILM...BUT SHOULD THIN FROM THE TOP DOWN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. TIMING THE BREAKUP OF THESE LOW CLOUDS IS GOING
TO BE KEY TO GETTING CLOSE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITHOUT
CLOUDS THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S QUITE EASILY. BEYOND 11:00 AM EVERY HOUR WE CAN MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUD COVER WILL CUT A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THAT POTENTIAL. I AM
TENTATIVELY FORECASTING HIGHS TO REACH 60-65 TODAY (WARMEST SOUTH OF
FLORENCE AND CONWAY) BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. 06Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE SAME DIFFERENCES AS THEIR 00Z COUNTERPARTS WITH THE GFS
WARM AND NAM AND RUC MUCH COOLER. AS LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEA FOG BECOMING MORE
PREVALENT. FOR AREAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST WIND IS ONSHORE (NE HORRY AND
BRUNSWICK COUNTIES) THIS MEANS CLOUDS AND FOG COULD PERSIST ALL
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 50S.

PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO REDEVELOP QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COULD BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
FLORENCE AND MARION. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
LOWS SHOULD FALL TO 48-53...WARMEST NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE WAVE PASSING WEST OF THE AREA
DURING MON WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE
IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IT WILL ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING SOUTH. COLD PUSH BEHIND THE
FRONT IS RATHER WEAK AND SURFACE BOUNDARY QUICKLY ENDS UP PARALLEL
TO STEERING FLOW. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE COAST FROM
THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW OVERCAST AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE
DURING THE DAY TUE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY TUE EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY
TUE NIGHT IT LIFTS THE STALLED FRONT/TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUE NIGHT WITH
TEMPS LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. TUE HIGHS...WHICH WILL END UP BELOW
CLIMO IN MOST PLACES...ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT TUE HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
TUE NIGHT LOWS. WEAK CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR TUE
NIGHT BUT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. STILL THE
PRESENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WARRANTS
CONTINUATION OF INHERITED CHC POP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ONGOING STRONG WARM ADVECTION AS THE PERIOD
BEGINS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WED DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING WED BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT LINE SEEM LIKELY JUST AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL JETTING BUT IT IS ON THE WEAK SIDE. AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE CAROLINAS IN WINTER CAPE WILL BE LACKING.
RIGHT NOW THE EVENT APPEARS RATHER BENIGN AS FAR AS STRONGER STORMS
GO BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

IMPRESSIVE PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS WED NIGHT BEHIND THE
EXITING FRONT AND CONTINUES INTO THU AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING.
TEMPS WILL DROP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER WEDGE EVENT LATE
IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EJECTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND TIGHTENING UP THE WEDGE OVER THE EAST COAST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS FRI AND STRENGTHENS SAT. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE LIFT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHC POP FRI AND INCREASE POP TO LOW CHC FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CURRENT TRENDS ARE HOLDING...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
PRESENT SET OF TAFS. LOOK FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME EROSION IN THE CLOUDS DUE TO
SOLAR INSOLATION. THE NAM BELIEVES THERE WILL BE SOME HOLES IN THE
CEILING BY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS US SOCKED IN THE ENTIRE
DAY. THINK WE WILL SEE SOME BROKEN SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...STILL A
MVFR CEILING. RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FEED THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...ANY MVFR CONDITIONS LEFTOVER WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE
COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR ON MONDAY. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...THE SLOWLY DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS HAS PREVENTED THE 60+ DEWPOINTS
FROM ADVECTING ACROSS THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...AND THUS DELAYING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEA FOG. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY
DOES SHOW SOME FEATURES THAT COULD RESEMBLE SEA FOG. AS A
RESULT...WILL DROP THE AREA COVERAGE OF THE FOG FROM WIDESPREAD TO
AREAS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND LOOSE GRADIENT TO YIELD MAINLY
A SSW-SW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF
3 TO 4 FT WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS MAINLY OUTER WATERS
OFF CAPE FEAR. THE 10-12 SECOND PERIOD...2 TO 3 FOOT ESE-SE
GROUND SWELL...WILL DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS SPECTRUM. VERY LITTLE
INPUT WILL COME FROM LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A DENSE FOG EVENT IS UNFOLDING AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS BRING RICH MOISTURE IN ACROSS THE VERY COLD NEARSHORE WATERS.
THE PAST FEW WEEKS OF ARCTIC CHILL HAVE TAKEN BEACH WATER
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN WIND SPEEDS
COULD KICK UP CLOSER TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PORTION OF
THAT DUE TO A 10-SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 15 KT MON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST MON EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH IT BUT STRENGTH IS LIMITED
AND INITIALLY SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. GRADIENT
STARTS TO BECOME MORE DEFINED TUE MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED TUE
AS COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS AND SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. AS A RESULT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN A SOLID 15 KT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF 5 FT SEAS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH 25 KT AT TIMES ON WED. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS WED EVENING WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. COMBINATION OF PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT INTO THU AFTERNOON. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN GRADIENT
AND WANING COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP NORTHEAST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. SCA SEAS LINGER INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS ABLE TO KNOCK SEAS BACK TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WE ARE NOW TWO DAYS PAST THE NEW MOON BUT
UNUSUALLY LOW WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AT LOW TIDE TODAY.
ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 3:15 THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
ETSURGE/ESTOFS CONSENSUS IS FOR WATER LEVELS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO
REACH -1.30 FEET MLLW...WITH LESSER DEPARTURES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 622 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A 500 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE SE
COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WEST TEXAS MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. HERE AT THE SURFACE THE OLD
ARCTIC FRONT THAT BROUGHT US COLD AND ICE LAST WEEK STALLED DOWN
OVER THE BAHAMAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT HAS RETURNED NORTH TO A
POSITION ABOUT 50-70 MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AS SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

A COOL AND COMPLETELY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS PRODUCED
PLENTY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE TOP OF THIS CLOUD DECK RANGES FROM 2000 FT AGL INLAND
TO NEARLY 10000 FT OVER ILM...BUT SHOULD THIN FROM THE TOP DOWN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. TIMING THE BREAKUP OF THESE LOW CLOUDS IS GOING
TO BE KEY TO GETTING CLOSE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITHOUT
CLOUDS THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S QUITE EASILY. BEYOND 11:00 AM EVERY HOUR WE CAN MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUD COVER WILL CUT A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THAT POTENTIAL. I AM
TENTATIVELY FORECASTING HIGHS TO REACH 60-65 TODAY (WARMEST SOUTH OF
FLORENCE AND CONWAY) BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. 06Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE SAME DIFFERENCES AS THEIR 00Z COUNTERPARTS WITH THE GFS
WARM AND NAM AND RUC MUCH COOLER. AS LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEA FOG BECOMING MORE
PREVALENT. FOR AREAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST WIND IS ONSHORE (NE HORRY AND
BRUNSWICK COUNTIES) THIS MEANS CLOUDS AND FOG COULD PERSIST ALL
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 50S.

PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO REDEVELOP QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COULD BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
FLORENCE AND MARION. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
LOWS SHOULD FALL TO 48-53...WARMEST NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE WAVE PASSING WEST OF THE AREA
DURING MON WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE
IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IT WILL ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING SOUTH. COLD PUSH BEHIND THE
FRONT IS RATHER WEAK AND SURFACE BOUNDARY QUICKLY ENDS UP PARALLEL
TO STEERING FLOW. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE COAST FROM
THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW OVERCAST AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE
DURING THE DAY TUE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY TUE EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY
TUE NIGHT IT LIFTS THE STALLED FRONT/TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUE NIGHT WITH
TEMPS LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. TUE HIGHS...WHICH WILL END UP BELOW
CLIMO IN MOST PLACES...ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT TUE HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
TUE NIGHT LOWS. WEAK CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR TUE
NIGHT BUT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. STILL THE
PRESENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WARRANTS
CONTINUATION OF INHERITED CHC POP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ONGOING STRONG WARM ADVECTION AS THE PERIOD
BEGINS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WED DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING WED BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT LINE SEEM LIKELY JUST AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL JETTING BUT IT IS ON THE WEAK SIDE. AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE CAROLINAS IN WINTER CAPE WILL BE LACKING.
RIGHT NOW THE EVENT APPEARS RATHER BENIGN AS FAR AS STRONGER STORMS
GO BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

IMPRESSIVE PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS WED NIGHT BEHIND THE
EXITING FRONT AND CONTINUES INTO THU AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING.
TEMPS WILL DROP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER WEDGE EVENT LATE
IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EJECTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND TIGHTENING UP THE WEDGE OVER THE EAST COAST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS FRI AND STRENGTHENS SAT. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE LIFT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHC POP FRI AND INCREASE POP TO LOW CHC FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CURRENT TRENDS ARE HOLDING...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
PRESENT SET OF TAFS. LOOK FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME EROSION IN THE CLOUDS DUE TO
SOLAR INSOLATION. THE NAM BELIEVES THERE WILL BE SOME HOLES IN THE
CEILING BY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS US SOCKED IN THE ENTIRE
DAY. THINK WE WILL SEE SOME BROKEN SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...STILL A
MVFR CEILING. RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FEED THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...ANY MVFR CONDITIONS LEFTOVER WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE
COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR ON MONDAY. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A DENSE FOG EVENT IS UNFOLDING AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS BRING RICH MOISTURE IN ACROSS THE VERY COLD NEARSHORE WATERS.
THE PAST FEW WEEKS OF ARCTIC CHILL HAVE TAKEN BEACH WATER
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN WIND SPEEDS
COULD KICK UP CLOSER TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GOOD PORTION OF
THAT DUE TO A 10-SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 15 KT MON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST MON EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH IT BUT STRENGTH IS LIMITED
AND INITIALLY SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. GRADIENT
STARTS TO BECOME MORE DEFINED TUE MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED TUE
AS COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS AND SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. AS A RESULT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN A SOLID 15 KT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF 5 FT SEAS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH 25 KT AT TIMES ON WED. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS WED EVENING WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. COMBINATION OF PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT INTO THU AFTERNOON. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN GRADIENT
AND WANING COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP NORTHEAST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT WED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. SCA SEAS LINGER INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS ABLE TO KNOCK SEAS BACK TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WE ARE NOW TWO DAYS PAST THE NEW MOON BUT
UNUSUALLY LOW WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AT LOW TIDE TODAY.
ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 3:15 THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
ETSURGE/ESTOFS CONSENSUS IS FOR WATER LEVELS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO
REACH -1.30 FEET MLLW...WITH LESSER DEPARTURES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
AMZ250-252-     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 328 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

21 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM DEVILS
LAKE TO BISMARCK WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WILLISTON TO
DICKINSON. OVERCAST SKIES UPSTREAM FROM THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST
MT INTO SASKATCHEWAN NOT WELL RESOLVED IN GLOBAL MODELS...BOTH
SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THEY MOVE EAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FEW BREAKS AND WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...SEE NO REASON CLOUDS WILL
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. WILL FOLLOW RAP 925 HPA RH OUTPUT WHICH
MOVES LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS A RESULT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DESPITE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXACT TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...
BUT STILL THINK MOST AREAS SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO. NO NEED FOR
WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

MONDAY WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS 1040 HPA PLUS SURFACE HIGH TAKES UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

STORM TRACK TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY NORMALS UNDER PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES PLUS OR MINUS THE ZERO MARK WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS DIPPING
WELL INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS WIND CHILL THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP REGION DRY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WELL BLO AVERAGE.
MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEKEND ON SOLUTIONS BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE
STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH FA REMAINING DRY BUT BLO
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

PATCH OF VFR/ISOLD MVFR CIGS WILL TRACK EAST OF THE VALLEY ACROSS
NW/N CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR AREA IN BETWEEN ANOTHER AREA
OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ENTERING NW CORNER OF ND AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER
WILL REACH FAR NW FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A WSHFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 102 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AS STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO
NORTHWEST MN WITH SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING WEST OF THE RED RIVER.
ALSO RAISED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO BLEND WITH
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

STILL A FEW OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS ROSEAU/LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 25 BELOW...BUT WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES RISING AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE
DAY...LET WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 AM CST.

STRATUS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD PER RAP 925 HPA RH
OUTPUT. DO EXPECT PEAKS OF SUNSHINE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES...MAXIMUM VALUES SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON.

DID ADJUST SKY COVER TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO PULL MORE COUNTIES OUT OF THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
AND ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES CURRENTLY REACHING
WIND CHILL CRITERIA. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR
CURRENT SAT TRENDS AND PUT IN AN ISOLATED FLURRY MENTION AS
SEVERAL SITES HAVE REPORTED -SN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES...MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE CLOUDS AND SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
WHILE THE EASTERN COUNTIES ARE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO THE WEST
HAS STAYED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WIND
CHILLS DROP BELOW CRITERIA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO STAY CLOUDY AND ABOVE
ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS STAYING ABOVE -20 F. WILL TRIM THOSE
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AND MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME MORE
ADJUSTMENTS AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A SFC TROUGH AXIS. THE
MILD WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER CANADA
MOVES OFF INTO ONTARIO. THERE SHOULD BE SOME WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH AND LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE WELL
BELOW ZERO. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN ON MONDAY BUT NEUTRAL TO
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH OF MORE THAN 1040MB SETTLES
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SPREADS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
COLD IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT REALLY
GET INTO THE POSITIVE NUMBERS.

.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...925 MB TEMPS FROM
-20 TO -25C ON WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WINDS BECOME MORE ZONAL...SO A SLOW UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY THOUGH WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REMAINING MAINLY BELOW
ZERO...AND NOT MUCH ABOVE ZERO ON THURSDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DIVERGE MORE BY LATE WEEK. AN UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM THE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR LATE
WEEK. DID KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

PATCH OF VFR/ISOLD MVFR CIGS WILL TRACK EAST OF THE VALLEY ACROSS
NW/N CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR AREA IN BETWEEN ANOTHER AREA
OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ENTERING NW CORNER OF ND AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER
WILL REACH FAR NW FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A WSHFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1018 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

STILL A FEW OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS ROSEAU/LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTIES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 25 BELOW...BUT WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES RISING AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE
DAY...LET WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 AM CST.

STRATUS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD PER RAP 925 HPA RH
OUTPUT. DO EXPECT PEAKS OF SUNSHINE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES...MAXIMUM VALUES SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON.

DID ADJUST SKY COVER TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO PULL MORE COUNTIES OUT OF THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
AND ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES CURRENTLY REACHING
WIND CHILL CRITERIA. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR
CURRENT SAT TRENDS AND PUT IN AN ISOLATED FLURRY MENTION AS
SEVERAL SITES HAVE REPORTED -SN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES...MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE CLOUDS AND SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
WHILE THE EASTERN COUNTIES ARE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO THE WEST
HAS STAYED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
LATER THIS MORNING...SO THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WIND
CHILLS DROP BELOW CRITERIA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO STAY CLOUDY AND ABOVE
ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS STAYING ABOVE -20 F. WILL TRIM THOSE
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AND MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME MORE
ADJUSTMENTS AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A SFC TROUGH AXIS. THE
MILD WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER CANADA
MOVES OFF INTO ONTARIO. THERE SHOULD BE SOME WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH AND LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE WELL
BELOW ZERO. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN ON MONDAY BUT NEUTRAL TO
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH OF MORE THAN 1040MB SETTLES
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SPREADS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
COLD IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT REALLY
GET INTO THE POSITIVE NUMBERS.

.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...925 MB TEMPS FROM
-20 TO -25C ON WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WINDS BECOME MORE ZONAL...SO A SLOW UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY THOUGH WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REMAINING MAINLY BELOW
ZERO...AND NOT MUCH ABOVE ZERO ON THURSDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DIVERGE MORE BY LATE WEEK. AN UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM THE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR LATE
WEEK. DID KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH KTVF BRIEFLY
CLEAR. THE STRATUS HAS SEEMED TO STRADDLE THE LINE BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO THINK THAT ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 1243 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THIS FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE THE
NIGHT IS OVER. AS COLDER AIR BECOMES DEEPER RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW. HAVE ONCE AGAIN DELAYED THIS TRANSITION BY A FEW HOURS SO
THIS WILL MOSTLY AFFECT AREAS FROM DAYTON TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. RECENT RAP AND NAM RUNS ARE INDICATING A BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR THERE. AT THIS
POINT FORECAST IS FOR BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS. BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT
THEN RAPIDLY END DURING THE MORNING AS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONLY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION.

ZONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE FEED THROUGH
THE STATE OF KY INTO WV IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION...EVEN AS THE
SURFACE FRONT DIVES WELL PAST THESE STATES. THE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING THIS STRONG LINGERING MOISTURE FEED HAS INCREASED THE
THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS A VERY DRY OUTLIER...THE LATEST
EUROPEAN HELPS CONFIRM THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME SUN NIGHT BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ON NORTH WINDS. A SMALL SHORTWAVE WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL
CROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AT H5 AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND HELP END ANY
THREAT FOR SNOWFALL IN A RAPID FASHION.

THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEANDER EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE FOR A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DROP OFF AND
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WAS TO ANALYZE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING TUESDAY MORNING AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL ORGANIZE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHICH WILL TRACK UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MEAN EVERYTHING IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

ITS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO FRET OVER EACH MODEL AND ITS RESPECTIVE
RUN AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW HAS BEEN SHIFTING ON THE ORDER OF 30-60
MILES. OF THE 12Z SOLUTIONS...THE CANADIAN CAME IN THE COLDEST...BUT
DPROG/DT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST ERRATIC MODEL AND IT
WAS THUSLY DISCOUNTED. OTHERWISE THE MODELS SEEM TO BE ZEROING IN ON
A TRACK PARALLEL BUT SOUTHEAST OF I-71. AN ANALYSIS OF THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGESTS MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN WEST
CENTRAL OHIO...AND A MOSTLY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. IN BETWEEN IS WHERE IT GETS TRICKY...AND FRANKLY ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE IN PLAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MEANS THAT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE NOTABLE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE. AS THE SREF
TRICKLES IN...IT ALSO SUPPORTS AN I-71 TRANSITION ZONE...WITH
PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DECREASING IN THIS AREA. MODEL
QPF FIELDS SUGGEST A RANGE FROM 0.6 TO 2.0 INCHES. THUS SIGNIFICANT
WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS
IN THE SOUTH. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ADDITIONAL DETAILS WERE ADDED TO THE GRIDS TO REPRESENT
THE FULL MIXED BAG OF PTYPES. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
FOLLOW THE BLEND OF RAW MODELS...WHICH CAPTURES THE BASIC
IDEA...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT COULD BE MUCH TIGHTER DEPENDING ON THE
LOW TRACK AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS PULLED NORTHWARD. THIS IS
DEFINITELY A /STAY TUNED/ TYPE OF WEATHER SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

ON WEDNESDAY...POPS WERE DECREASED MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
LINGER GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BE TRANQUIL BUT COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE THE COLDEST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOME
BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE SUPPORTED IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. A RETURN OF
MOISTURE IS SHOWN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE HIGH.
INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE SYSTEMS TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL START OFF AS ALL RAIN...THEN TRANSITION TO A POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW MIX STARTING AT KDAY AND THEN PROGRESSIVELY
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN DURING THIS TRANSITION TIME MAINLY BETWEEN KDAY AND KILN.
PRECIPITATION MAY THEN TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION IS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK TOWARD KCVG/KLUK LATER IN THE DAY. AT
THIS TIME IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LATTO







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 303 AM PST SUN FEB  2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WILL
BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER CANADIAN AIR WILL SPREAD OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. A MOIST FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS CIRCULATING AROUND THIS LOW IS STREAMING OVER
THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING VIRGA WITHIN
THESE CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED RADIATION COOLING SOUTH OF
MCMINNVILLE...AND INHIBITED FOG. THE SKIES WERE CLEAR OVERNIGHT NORTH
OF MCMINNVILLE AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPED TO BELOW FREEZING.
FOG WAS ABLE TO FORM IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE THE SKIES WERE
CLEAR...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE PATCHY FREEZING FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING.

HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE LOW TO THE SE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF WASHINGTON IS
SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PICK UP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS IT SLIDES TOWARDS OREGON TODAY...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE FOR THE COAST AND OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
SLOPES.

A SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE COLD AIR INTRUSION AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY MONDAY AROUND FREEZING
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MODEL 850
TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8 RANGE WOULD SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS DOWN ANYWHERE
FROM JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR TO ABOUT 1000 FEET. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
MOISTURE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES  MIXED
WITH THE RAIN. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM NW TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY...CLEARING SKIES AND BEGIN TO
USHER MUCH COLDER AIR OVER THE AREA. MODELED 850MB TEMPERATURES -10
TO 12 DEG C COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S.
MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUTDALE TO DALLES SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND -12 MB TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
 HARTLEY

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...ECMWF AND GFS
APPEAR TO BE HONED IN ON AN UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT DRAWS AIR DOWN
FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. THE MAIN THRUST OF COLD AIR IS HEADED DOWN
THE E SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BREAK A TROUGH OUT
TO THE W DRAWING SOME OF THE COLD AIR TO THE W. MODELS IN RECENT RUNS
HAVE PERSISTENTLY BROUGHT H8 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF -18 W OF THE
CASCADE CREST BY THU MORNING. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF CANADA IT SEEMS A LONG WAY TO BRING THE AIR
WESTWARD...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL SUPPORT IT IS DIFFICULT TO NOT GO WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THE WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK
ALSO HELP TO CARVE THE TROUGH WESTWARD. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING THE
COLDEST AIR IN SINCE EARLY DECEMBER...BUT LIKELY DRY GIVEN THE
CONTINENTAL ORIGIN.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAKES
FOR SOME POTENTIALLY INTERESTING WEATHER. A WARMER SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW SAT. COLD AIR IN PLACE FROM LATER THIS
WEEK..AND TEMPORARILY HELD IN PLACE BY LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW COULD
MAKE FOR A MESSY TRANSITION DAY SAT AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR BEFORE FINALLY DISPLACING IT. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL NEED TO MAKE MENTION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG. MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 10000 FT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH OREGON COAST SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND HAS PREVENTED MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING. RADAR SHOWS A SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS FAR NORTH AS KSLE AS OF 10Z.
THE 06Z HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS SOMEWHAT AND BRINGS MORE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FALL AS VIRGA.

COLDER CONTINENTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE BC COAST LATE
DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE ADVANCING BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z MON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES. BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY BUILDING WEST TOWARD
KEUG KTTD AND MAYBE KPDX AROUND 06Z MON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT FOG TO DECREASE THIS MORNING AS THE
10000 FT CLOUD DECK THICKENS. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BY 14Z WITH LOCAL
IFR ON WESTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK PRES GRADIENT PATTERN...WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE
PAC NW. WINDS TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS INTO TUE...THEN STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW ARRIVES WED THAT COULD BRING 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS
THAT MAY LAST INTO LATE WEEK.  SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL
CONTINUE...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH TUE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 930 PM PST SAT FEB  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST SAT
EVENING WILL MOVE SE BRUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUN. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. A SHOT OF COLDER CANADIAN AIR APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NE.

&&

.UPDATE....NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TONIGHT...PRECIP MAY GRAZE THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATER TONIGHT...BUT EVEN THE HRRR WHICH IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WITH THE
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OFFSHORE WILL MAKE IT.EXPECT SOME FROST AND
EVENTUALLY SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG THAT IS CURRENTLY FORMING ALONG THE
LOWER COLUMBIA NEAR KELSO.

MOST OF THE MODIFICATIONS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WERE TO UPDATE SKY
GRIDS FOR TOMORROW AND TO EXPAND THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX WORDING FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT LOWS
EARLY MONDAY RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MAR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER. ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MODEL 850 TEMPS IN THE -6
TO -8 RANGE WOULD SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS DOWN ANYWHERE FROM JUST ABOVE
THE VALLEY FLOOR TO ABOUT 1000 FEET. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
LIGHT AND SCATTERED AS ALLUDED TO BELOW WITH WEAK MOISTURE...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FLAKES MIXED IN BASED ON MOST GUIDANCE
EXCEPT THE EURO.

GFS IS SLOWER TO SPREAD THE COLDEST AIR IN THE OTHER MEDIUM TO LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE MID=LATE WEEK COLD SNAP WHICH WILL ADD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW COLD THINGS WILL BE...BUT IT WILL BE VERY COLD
NONETHELESS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WINDS...AND GIVEN THE FACT IT
HAS BEEN MILD AND THAT AVERAGE HIGHS ARE NOW ALREADY AROUND 50 FOR
THE VALLEY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY IF I HAD TO PICK ONE
RIGHT NOW. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES WAS NEAR 41N
135W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SLIPPING ESE TOWARDS NORTHERN CA. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED NW TO SE HAS SET UP A SHARP DEFORMATION
ZONE ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT ANY POPS
TONIGHT AND SUN TO THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER SOUTHERN WA SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE.

UPPER FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE N SUN NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN CA. TH FIRST SHORTWAVE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN BC SAT AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE PICKING UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON ITS TREK S
DOWN THE COAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW
700 MB SUN NIGHT AND MON...SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY
WITH BEST CHANCES ON THE COAST AND OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES.
WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS FIRST SHOT OF
AIR CROSSING THE YUKON...WITH COLDER AIR SEEPING IN MON NIGHT AND
TUE WITH A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES FOLLOWING AND LOW LEVEL TURNING
OFFSHORE. WITH THE FOLLOWING WAVES HAVING A SLIGHTLY FURTHER E
TRAJECTORY...PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR MON NIGHT
AND TUE.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR TO BE HONED IN ON AN UPPER AIR
PATTERN THAT DRAWS AIR DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. THE MAIN
THRUST OF COLD AIR IS HEADED DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...BUT
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BREAK A TROUGH OUT TO THE W DRAWING SOME OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE W. MODELS IN RECENT RUNS HAVE PERSISTENTLY BROUGHT
H8 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF -16 W OF THE CASCADE CREST BY THU MORNING.
WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA IT SEEMS A
LONG WAY TO BRING THE AIR WESTWARD...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL SUPPORT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO NOT GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE WEAK SHORTWAVES
DROPPING DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK ALSO HELP TO CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING THE COLDEST AIR IN SINCE EARLY
DECEMBER...BUT LIKELY DRY GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAKES
FOR SOME POTENTIALLY INTERESTING WEATHER. A WARMER SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW SAT. COLD AIR IN PLACE FROM LATER THIS
WEEK..AND TEMPORARILY HELD IN PLACE BY LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW COULD
MAKE FOR A MESSY TRANSITION DAY SAT AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR BEFORE FINALLY DISPLACING IT. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL NEED TO MAKE MENTION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF PACKAGE...BRIEF CLEARING AS THE REGION IS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MID CLOUDS ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE CLOSED LOW HEADING SE TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF A KSLE TO KTMK LINE.
AREAS NORTH WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANGE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER
CLEARER SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE PASSING CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT FOG FOR KEUG. RECENT HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRIED TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS KPDX BUT
IT APPEARS THE MOST RECENT RUNS ARE WEAKENING AND MOST TAF
TERMINALS WILL STAY DRY. KEUG MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN AT TIME
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AT BEST.

COLDER CONTINENTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE BC COAST LATE
DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE ADVANCING BETWEEN
03/03Z AND 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES. BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY BUILDING WEST TOWARD
KEUG KTTD AND MAYBE KPDX AROUND 6Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING AT TIMES AFTER
02Z. REASONABLE TO EXPECT LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS AFTER 08Z AS AREAS
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FORM PRIMARILY W AND N OF KPDX. MAY BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO KEEP AREAS TO E OF KPDX RELATIVELY FOG
FREE OVERNIGHT. JBONK/ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEAK PRES
GRADIENT PATTERN...WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE PAC NW. WINDS TO
REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL
CONTINUE...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH TUE.

LOW PRES WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SUN...BUT WILL MOVE TO THE S
OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS IT HEADS INTO N CALIF. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER PAC NW NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 123 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A
MOISTER AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE WEEK IN WEATHER IS COMING WITH A
SERIES OF FRONTS CROSSING OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM...SATELLITE AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A COMPLEX
COMBINATION OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS MORNING. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS OF 945 PM...THE MAIN FCST CONCERN/CHALLENGE FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE IS THE TRENDS IN THE MVFR STRATUS...AND INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS...WHICH MAY AFFECT MIN TEMPS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OFF THE COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SWLY LLVL FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN GULF MOISTURE ATOP A RESIDUAL DRY SFC-BASED
LAYER. THE 00Z FFC SNDG SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER
BETWEEN 900-850 MB...WITH STRONG INVERSION FROM 850-800. MODELS SHOW
THE LLVL FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO MORE WSWLY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS
ENUF TO HAVE DOWNSLOPE AID SCATTERING OUT SOME OF THE FAIRLY THIN
STRATUS. IF THE STRATUS CLEARS IN LARGE ENUF AREAS...SOME LOCATIONS
MAY DEVELOP FOG...WHICH COULD BE DENSE. THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING IN
SRN/CENTRAL GA. WITH THAT SAID...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
ENUF MIXING AND LARGER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS SUCH THAT ANY CLEAR AREAS
WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE LOW STRATUS FILL BACK IN RATHER THAN FOG.
THE RAP IS THE MOST BULLISH ON FOG ACRS THE GA AND SC
PIEDMONT...REACHING THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA BY DAYBREAK. MY
THINKING IS TO LEAN TOWARD ONLY PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE LWR
PIEDMONT SOUTH AND EAST OF I-85. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE IN THIS ASPECT. THE OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO RAISE
MIN TEMPS UP A CATEGORY OR SO IN SPOTS...GIVEN THE LARGE INCREASE IN
DEWPTS...AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO DECREASING
POPS.  LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE BURNING
OFF AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ACTUALLY
REMAIN QUITE MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL AS DENSE SKY COVER INSULATES FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MOST OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN VALLEY LOCATIONS DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...THUS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEY AREAS AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF AND APPROACH SATURATION.  WITH
THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY HIGH IN THAT REGARD AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY
ACROSS MOST THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
POPS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO SOLID CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  AS FOR THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMIDST PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME
A TRANSITION TO A WET/UNSETTLED REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY WILL INITIATE
LOW-LEVEL  CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY...
WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL ACT TO MAXIMIZE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NC AND EAST TENN BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD WILL MOVE  GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW...WHERE QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MAX AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC...WHERE STRONG SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
LIFT...AUGMENTING THE SYNOPTIC FORCING. ELSEWHERE...QPF SHOULD
GENERALLY RANGE FROM .5-1 INCH ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS TO .25-.5 INCH
ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS. WINTRY PRECIP CONTINUES TO APPEAR
LIKE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY EVENT...EVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS...WHERE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALL SOLIDLY IN THE RAIN
SPECTRUM. EVEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF AN
ALL-RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.

FORCING WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY NE OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BRINGING AN END TO WIDESPREAD RAIN. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OOZING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...SPILLING COLD AIR DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SIGNALING THE ONSET OF A PERIOD OF
CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. AS ANOTHER...STRONGER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE MORNING...UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE ABOVE
COLD AIR WEDGE ACROSS OUR AREA...RESULTING IN LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM...
SREF...AND GFS SUGGESTS A RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL OF -FZRA IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE (NORTH OF
I-40) WITHIN CLASSIC CAD REGIME EARLY TUE...AND WE WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF SEVERAL HOURS OF -FZRA OR -RA/-FZRA. FORTUNATELY...
GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE ARRIVED AT A CONSENSUS THAT THE PARENT
HIGH WILL BE TRANSIENT...AND THAT CAD MAY BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE BY
TUE AFTERNOON...WHEN PRECIP RATES WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
THEREFORE...WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY...ICE STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK UNLIKELY ATTM.

AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...CAD EROSION SHOULD GRADUALLY OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED... RESULTING IN DIMINISHING UPGLIDE PRECIP AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BAND. WITH WEAKENING FORCING ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE...MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A DIMINISHING BAND OF PRECIP
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA EARLY WED. HOWEVER...IT IS
LIKELY THAT SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR BY
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRECIP BAND LIKELY BECOMING REINVIGORATED
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THIS UNSTABLE AIR. IF THE COLD FRONT PROVES TO
MOVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED AFTERNOON... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
STILL TOO LOW TO FORECAST TS OCCURRENCE ATTM.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE WARM TREND INTERRUPTED BY VERY COOL CONDITIONS (TEMPS AT LEAST
10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO) WITHIN THE CAD REGIME LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST SAT...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IS HAD IN THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE NW FLOW SN SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF RATHER
QUICKLY WED NIGHT AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE H92/H85 LAYER ON THE FRONT
END OF A DRY AND COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS. THERE SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF
A SE/RN PUSH WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT OUTSIDE THE MTNS THU AS THE MEAN
MLVL FLOW REMAINS SW/LY. THIS SHOULD CREATE A DISPARATE MAX
TEMPERATURE REGIME ACROSS THE FA WITH THE MTN VALLEYS WARMING ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES LESS THAN THE NON/MTNS. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE
HELD ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN GOOD INSOLATION YET COLD
N/LY SFC FLOW.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE FCST BEGINNING THU EVENING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS IS STILL A COLDER AND MORE DYNAMIC OUTLIER THAN
THE CWM/ECMWF SOLNS AND THE MODEL HAS A VERY DIFFERENT ULVL
CONFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE NE CONUS. THE GFS IS PRODUCING A MUCH
STRONGER AND COLDER SFC HIGH THAN THE OTHER OP MODELS AS IT/S
UPPER PATTERN INCLUDES AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BEHIND THE CONFLUENT ZONE.
THE OTHER MODELS HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THIS AREA...THUS THE GFS IS
ABLE TO SUSTAIN STRONGER LLVL SUPPORT.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE INCOMING 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THIS MODEL IS TRENDING
TOWARD THE UPPER PATTERN OF THE GFS...BUT IT STILL HAS A WEAKER SFC
LOW...ALBEIT IN A BETTER CAD POSITION BY 12Z FRI. SOUNDINGS ON THE
GFS ARE SO COLD WITH THE CAD ONSET THAT THEY SHOW ALL SNOW FOR THE
FIRST PART OF FRI CHANGING OVER THE -FZRA IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES. THE OLD ECMWF HAD ALL RAIN...WHILE THE NEW ECMWF
SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH COLDER THROUGH H7. WITH SO MUCH CHANGE OCCURRING
IN THE MODELS AND VARYING AVAILABLE MOISTURE DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS...POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE CHANCE RANGE
WITH A PUSH TOWARD THE HIGHER END. WILL STILL COUNT ON A STRONG WARM
NOSE BUILDING IN FRI AND MAKING THE CASE FOR -FZRA AS THE STRONGER
CAD SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE FAVORED ATTM. IT/S TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
QPF/ICE AMOUNTS AS THE LLVL MASS FIELDS/FLUXES HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
AND NEED TO BE FIGURED OUT...BUT THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN
EYE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE 0Z NAM12 INDICATES THAT A BAND OF LESS THAN 5 MB SFC
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOLLOWING THE OBS TRENDS AND BLEND OF
PREFERRED GUIDANCE...I WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PRE DAWN PERIOD. IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 11Z-16Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MIDDAY AS THE
COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT. LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 3Z. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
KAVL...KGSP...KGMU AND KHKY THROUGH SUNRISE. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MID MORNING. KAND WILL LIKELY
OBSERVE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LIFT AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 3Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  84%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     MED   79%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...NED







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1150 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD PATCHY FOG.

DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW NEAR JONESBORO ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG...DENSE AT TIMES HAS ACCOMPANIED
THE BOUNDARY IN ADDITION TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN ACTIVITY. HAVE
ADDED THE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATT...AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE KEEPING VISIBILTIES HIGHER.

CONCERNING WINTER WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH...THE LATEST NAM AND GFS MODEL
ARE INDICATING SOME TEMPERATURE DISPARITIES FOR TOMORROW
EVENING`S PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE NAM IS NOW
COLDER... SHOWING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN
SLEET LATER IN THE EVENING. WHERE AS THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION
RIGHT AT 33F THROUGH NEARLY THE END OF PRECIPITATION EVENT. LATER
FORECASTS AND TRENDS FROM THE EURO AND HRRR MODELS MAY INDICATE THE
NEED FOR THE MIDNIGHT CREW...OR EVEN THE SUNDAY DAY CREW TO
EXTENT THE CURRENT ADVISORY SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

.CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI...AND BACK THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. ALONG
THE FRONT...RAIN CAN BE FOUND OUT AHEAD OF IT WITH VARIOUS TYPES OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE. RAIN HAS FINALLY
OVERSPREAD INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AS OF 3 PM. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR VARIOUS TYPES OF WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. A COLD FRONT THAT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR IMMEDIATE AND NORTH AND WEST WILL PUSH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL SWIFTLY DROP ACCORDINGLY BY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 30S IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE WITH 40S TO OUR SOUTH. A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN CHANGING OVER
TO FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST IN FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM AS WELL AS WET GROUND.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL. FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO FALL EITHER AS FREEZING RAIN IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SLEET BY LATE
MORNING. SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER SUNDOWN.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES REMAINING COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GOING TO BE PREDOMINANTLY
NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. BY ABOUT NOON TOMORROW...SLEET WILL
BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. AS SUB-FREEZING AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...SLEET WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AFTER
ABOUT 3 PM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN THAT REGION. ACCUMULATIONS
RIGHT NOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITH
APPROXIMATELY 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED FROM THE I-40 CORRIDOR NORTH
TO THE FORECAST AREA BORDER. THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN BOTH
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
TUPELO AREA. SINCE ANY MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BY THE TIME
COLD AIR MAKES ITS WAY DOWN TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI...NO SNOW OR
SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ON THE ROADS. FOR THIS...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA AS WELL AS THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATED. ROADS WILL LIKELY BE SLICK.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME 30S IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. SOME
SNOW MAY STILL BE ON THE GROUND THOUGH. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE COLD AIR
IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW THERE MAY BE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S AS COLD AIR
FUNNELS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COLD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER
WEATHER TO THE MID-SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE MUCH
STRONGER THAN THE ONE WE WILL SEE TOMORROW NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A COLD FRONT POSITIONED BETWEEN KJBR AND KMEM/KMKL WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KJBR AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALSO GONE NORTH AND WILL PICK UP IN SPEED
AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SLEET MIX THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO 1/2SM AT TIMES IN MODERATE SNOW
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL LET
UP IN INTENSITY BY LATE EVENING WITH IMPROVING VSBYS BUT CONTINUED
IFR CIGS.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH KMEM AND KMKL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY
LATER TONIGHT. CIGS WILL ALSO DROP FROM VFR TO IFR WITH RAIN
BECOMING WIDESPREAD. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS NOTED FROM 00Z LZK SOUNDING. A TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 01Z-03Z MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUED IFR CIGS.

KTUP SHOULD SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS NORTHWARD. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF KTUP AFTER SUNRISE WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD. IFR CIGS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  36  38  28  42 /  90  90  80  10
MKL  35  37  28  42 /  90  90  80  10
JBR  32  32  25  36 /  70  80  80  10
TUP  49  49  32  46 /  40  90  80  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-TIPTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-DECATUR-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-
     HENRY-MADISON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1035 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD PATCHY FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW NEAR JONESBORO ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG...DENSE AT TIMES HAS ACCOMPANIED
THE BOUNDARY IN ADDITION TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN ACTIVITY. HAVE
ADDED THE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATT...AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE KEEPING VISIBILTIES HIGHER.

CONCERNING WINTER WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH...THE LATEST NAM AND GFS MODEL
ARE INDICATING SOME TEMPERATURE DISPARITIES FOR TOMORROW
EVENING`S PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE NAM IS NOW
COLDER... SHOWING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN
SLEET LATER IN THE EVENING. WHERE AS THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION
RIGHT AT 33F THROUGH NEARLY THE END OF PRECIPITATION EVENT. LATER
FORECASTS AND TRENDS FROM THE EURO AND HRRR MODELS MAY INDICATE THE
NEED FOR THE MIDNIGHT CREW...OR EVEN THE SUNDAY DAY CREW TO
EXTENT THE CURRENT ADVISORY SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI...AND BACK THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. ALONG
THE FRONT...RAIN CAN BE FOUND OUT AHEAD OF IT WITH VARIOUS TYPES OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE. RAIN HAS FINALLY
OVERSPREAD INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AS OF 3 PM. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR VARIOUS TYPES OF WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. A COLD FRONT THAT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR IMMEDIATE AND NORTH AND WEST WILL PUSH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL SWIFTLY DROP ACCORDINGLY BY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 30S IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE WITH 40S TO OUR SOUTH. A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN CHANGING OVER
TO FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST IN FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM AS WELL AS WET GROUND.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL. FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO FALL EITHER AS FREEZING RAIN IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SLEET BY LATE
MORNING. SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER SUNDOWN.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES REMAINING COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GOING TO BE PREDOMINANTLY
NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. BY ABOUT NOON TOMORROW...SLEET WILL
BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. AS SUB-FREEZING AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...SLEET WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AFTER
ABOUT 3 PM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN THAT REGION. ACCUMULATIONS
RIGHT NOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITH
APPROXIMATELY 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED FROM THE I-40 CORRIDOR NORTH
TO THE FORECAST AREA BORDER. THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN BOTH
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
TUPELO AREA. SINCE ANY MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BY THE TIME
COLD AIR MAKES ITS WAY DOWN TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI...NO SNOW OR
SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ON THE ROADS. FOR THIS...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA AS WELL AS THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATED. ROADS WILL LIKELY BE SLICK.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME 30S IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. SOME
SNOW MAY STILL BE ON THE GROUND THOUGH. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE COLD AIR
IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW THERE MAY BE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S AS COLD AIR
FUNNELS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND COLD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER
WEATHER TO THE MID-SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE MUCH
STRONGER THAN THE ONE WE WILL SEE TOMORROW NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

FOR KJBR...COLD FRONT IS ON THE MOVE AND WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
SITE LATER THIS EVENING WITH CURRENT MVFR CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO
IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 20KTS. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BY SUNRISE...RAIN WILL
BEGIN MIXING WITH SLEET...CHANGING TO A SNOW AND SLEET MIX BY MID
MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
SLOWLY LOWER FROM IFR TO LIFR AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP FROM
SNOWFALL TO LIFR DURING THE DAY.

FOR KMEM...RAIN SHOWER AND LOWERING CIGS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 03Z WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL AROUND 07Z WITH IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD
BECOME WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR KMKL...SIMILAR TO KMEM INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND LOWERING
MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME COMMON LATER THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AROUND 07/08Z WITH NORTH WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AT KMKL LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH IFR CIGS.

FOR KTUP...CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH IFR STRATUS EXPECTED
TO SURGE NORTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALSO DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SITE NEAR SUNRISE WITH IFR CIGS
SLOWLY LOWERING TO LIFR DURING THE DAY AS RAIN INTENSITY INCREASES
TO MODERATE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 8KTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...VEERING NORTHEASTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT.

JLH/JAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  36  38  28  42 /  90  90  80  10
MKL  35  37  28  42 /  90  90  80  10
JBR  32  32  25  36 /  70  80  80  10
TUP  49  49  32  46 /  40  90  80  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-TIPTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-DECATUR-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-
     HENRY-MADISON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 947 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

.UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS ARE DETECTING LIGHT RAIN/ECHOES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THOSE ECHOES ARE MAINLY OVER THE SAN ANTONIO
METRO AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AREAS. THEY ARE MOVING WITHIN A MOIST
LOW LEVEL LAYER BETWEEN 1000 TO 500O FT. SO FAR...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT REPORTED PRECIPITATION DUE TO A SMALL POCKET
OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THE BOTTOM OF THE MOIST LAYER
ABOVE MENTIONED. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES COME UP...THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE. LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS(LAND AND MARITIME) ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SUGGEST A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
BOUNDARY SITTING ALONG THE COAST. RUC13 AGREES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AND BRINGS IT A FEW MILES INLAND OVERNIGHT WHILE A SURFACE LOW
FORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF. WITH THIS SCENARIO...SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL END UP WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...
SUPPORTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG OVER A LARGE AREA.
OVERRUNNING PATTERN ALOFT WILL KEEP THIS PICTURE GOING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS OVERRUNNING PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  71  41  49  29 /  60  30  -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  42  69  34  50  25 /  60  30  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     41  71  36  52  26 /  60  20  -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  67  35  45  23 /  60  20  -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           38  74  39  58  34 /  -    0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  68  37  46  24 /  60  30  -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  76  36  57  30 /  30  10  -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        42  70  36  51  26 /  60  30  -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   44  67  39  52  31 /  60  50  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  74  41  53  31 /  50  20  -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           43  74  39  56  31 /  50  20  -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 1155 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE METROPLEX AT THIS
TIME BUT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AN IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET HAS
DEVELOPED WEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS AND THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
JUST TO THE WEST. THE BATTLE BETWEEN WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO FAVOR MAINLY A
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN PRECIP TYPE IN THE METROPLEX THROUGH AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...TEMPS ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO
COOL. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SOME SLEET IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THINK MAINLY FREEZING RAIN WILL PREVAIL. LITTLE ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND/SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TOO
WARM. SOME LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON EXPOSED SURFACES.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END THIS EVENING AND MVFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST.

AT WACO...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
AS OF 11 AM...THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM SHERMAN THROUGH
FORT WORTH ALLIANCE TO STEPHENVILLE AND COMANCHE. RADAR AND
SURFACE REPORTS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF SLEET FROM CISCO THROUGH
POSSUM KINGDOM TO NORTHWESTERN COOKE COUNTY INTO OKLAHOMA. WE
DID AN UPDATE EARLIER TO ADD JACK AND PALO PINTO COUNTIES TO THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. GIVEN THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH...AM NOT EXPECTING A
DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST TO THE METROPLEX AS
PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGES ARE TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-20 AND TO ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER...MOVING EAST
TOWARDS TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
A PLUME OF DEEP WATER VAPOR WAS OBSERVED DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. A 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED 500 MB TEMPERATURES
OF -18 TO -20 DEG C JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT HAD LIKELY ADVECTED OVER LOCATIONS FROM MIDLAND TO
LUBBOCK...LOWERING STABILITY ALOFT. THIS AREA CORRESPONDED WELL
WITH OBSERVED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CELLULAR CONVECTION OBSERVED ON
REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDING FROM MIDLAND NORTHEAST TO CHILDRESS AT
0930Z. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE 850 MB FREEZING LINE
HOLDING UP IN THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM MOIST AIR MASS ALOFT
OVER NORTH TEXAS AT 10 DEG C. THIS LINE HAD OBVIOUSLY SHIFTED
SOUTH IN THE 10 HRS SINCE THE WEATHER BALLOON OBSERVATIONS AS
LIGHT SNOW WAS OBSERVED AS FAR SOUTH AS SYNDER TX AT 0930Z.

FIRST...A SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST:

WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH TO
INCLUDE MILLS...HAMILTON...BOSQUE...HILL...ELLIS...AND KAUFMAN
COUNTIES. THIS WAS DONE PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED ROAD
SURFACES THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THAT ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO COOPER. THIS
IS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS WE HAVE THE FREEZING LINE CREEPING THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACTIVE OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ABRUPTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A DRY
SLOT KICKS OUT OVER THE REGION ALOFT.

BEFORE THE DRY AIR ALOFT ARRIVES HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHERE WE ALREADY HAD
WINTRY WEATHER ADVISORIES OR A WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT.
FOR LOCATIONS THAT WERE ALREADY INCLUDED IN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS...THERE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OF NOTE WAS AN INCREASE
IN THE AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATION FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH IN A NARROW
BAND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FREEZE LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ICE ACCUMULATION EXTENDS FROM
COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM. THE REASONS FOR THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED
BELOW...BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO ELEVATED SURFACES TODAY. MOST OF THE FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FALL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30-32 DEGREE F
RANGE...MEANING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND/SOIL
TEMPERATURES WE HAVE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DOES NOT
APPLY TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES OF COURSE AS THESE SURFACES WILL
COOL BELOW FREEZING SOON AFTER THE AIR TEMPERATURE DROPS BELOW
FREEZING TODAY.

THE FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO
SHERMAN LINE STILL LOOK TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
MIXED IN. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS A RESULT. IN BETWEEN THE DFW AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO SEE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND A LATE TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW...
AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT AMOUNTS OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AS THIS REPRESENTS THE LIKELY TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN ALL 3
PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. LEFT THESE AREAS IN
AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING AMOUNTS LARGE
ENOUGH OF ANY INDIVIDUAL TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME. SUFFICE TO SAY TRAVEL WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY WEATHER WILL LEAD TO SLICK
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

SECOND...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION REGARDING OUR WINTER WEATHER
EVENT:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY...SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING. AS MENTIONED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
DISCUSSION...DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
REDUCTION IN STABILITY ALOFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY AS WELL. THIS POINT IN PARTICULAR GREATLY COMPLICATES THE
FORECAST BECAUSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BECOME MUCH MORE RESPONSIVE
TO MESOSCALE FORCING AS OPPOSED TO SYNOPTIC SCALE CONSIDERATIONS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CELLULAR CONVECTION MIXED IN BROADER
PRECIPITATION ZONES RESULTING IN LOCALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WHAT IS REFLECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND OUR OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WORKING AGAINST THE SOUTHWARD MOVING CANADIAN AIRMASS IS
WHAT IS DRIVING ALL OF THE DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONSISTENTLY SHOW THAT AIR PARCELS LIFTED
FROM AROUND THE 750 MB LEVEL HAVE POSITIVE CAPE ANYWHERE FROM 100
TO 250 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENT. THIS
UPRIGHT INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY PRETTY HIGH IN THIS PANNING OUT. THE MORE
IMPORTANT QUESTION IS: HOW WILL THIS AFFECT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY? THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS
TRICKY...HOWEVER IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
NOT CHANGE IMPACTS MUCH FROM WHAT WERE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING
IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTRY WEATHER ADVISORIES.

ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA WILL
ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/ACCUMULATION. THESE ARE THE
LOCATIONS WE ALREADY FEEL WILL SUFFER FROM THE WORST ROAD
CONDITIONS...SO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS. WHILE THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS...A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL THE MOST APPROPRIATE WAY TO ADDRESS
THESE IMPACTS AND THAT WILL NOT CHANGE WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

IF WE GET THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM
LINE...WHERE WE EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN...THIS
WILL ONLY MAKE FREEZING RAIN FALL FASTER ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
THIS SOUNDS REALLY BAD...ITS NOT OBVIOUS THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
LIKELY JUST CAUSE MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO RUN OFF AREA
ROADWAYS...AS LONG AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30 O 32 DEGREE F
RANGE. NOW THIS POINT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT...IF TEMPERATURES
WERE TO FALL INTO THE 20S WITH ENHANCED FREEZING RAIN RATES...WE
WOULD BE IN BIG TROUBLE AS ICE WOULD ACCUMULATE VERY RAPIDLY ON
AREA ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THIS 30 TO 32
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE DFW AREA WHILE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING. OBVIOUSLY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CLOSELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

ONCE AGAIN FOR THOSE COUNTIES IN BETWEEN DFW AND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...THIS IS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE GREATEST
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST. EMBEDDED STORMS NOT ONLY
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/RATES...BUT THEY ALSO TEND TO COOL
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THEIR UPDRAFT. THIS MAY
ACTUALLY RESULT IN A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
NEAR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE RESULTING IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET. WE WILL WATCH FOR ANY
PERSISTENT AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY LINE UP IN THIS
TRANSITION ZONE...AND MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SOME OF THESE AREAS TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING IF IT LOOKS LIKE A CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET
OR SNOW.

THIS BRINGS US TO THE LEAST CERTAIN PORTION OF THE FORECAST WHICH
IS THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE. 00Z AND 06Z MODELS HAVE REALLY
BEEN STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP WITH AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE
FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE. THE 00Z NAM WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE 06Z FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE AS EVERY
OTHER MODEL THAT WAS LOOKED AT WAS ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 DEGREES TOO
WARM. THEREFORE...THIS FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM.
NOTABLY...THE 06Z RAP KEPT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALL
DAY ACROSS THE DFW AREA...SO THE EXACT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS AN UNCERTAIN ONE AS OF THIS MORNING.

MODELS /EVEN THE WARMEST ONES/ CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE VERTICAL
THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW
WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...OR
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO SHERMAN LINE. ALSO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE H850 WARM NOSE HOLDING IN PLACE
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ALONG A COMANCHE TO
DFW TO BONHAM LINE...WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE OUR HIGHEST FREEZING
RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST. AS MENTIONED A FEW TIMES
ALREADY...IT IS IN BETWEEN THESE LOCATIONS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS MOST UNCERTAIN. HAVE A WINTRY MIX FORECAST FOR THESE
LOCATIONS DUE TO A VARYING DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR BASED ON YOUR
FAVORITE MODEL OF CHOICE.

IN SUMMARY:

FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS:

2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO SHERMAN LINE.

ONE TENTH OF A INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...MAINLY RESTRICTED TO
ELEVATED ROADWAYS...WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW OR SLEET
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG A COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM
LINE.

IN BETWEEN DFW AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATION COMBINED...AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN/ICE POSSIBLE.

LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXTEND ALONG A GOLDTHWAITE TO
HILLSBORO TO COOPER LINE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR
SLEET IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO COOPER
LINE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID AT THIS
TIME...SO NO WINTRY WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

NOTE: EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION IN ALL OF THESE LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A STRONG DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST RESULTING IN AN
ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT...SO ANY
WET ROADWAYS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE INTO BLACK ICE.
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL PROLONG ANY HAZARDOUS
ROAD CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...MADE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME WITH ALL
OF OUR FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN
ON TRACK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANCES OF
FREEZING RAIN BASED ON 00Z AND 06Z MODEL DATA. ANOTHER WINTER
STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN ON QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS LATE WEEK
STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION...HOWEVER
MODELS WERE AT LEAST TRENDING TOWARDS A LOWER IMPACT EVENT.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  27  42  36  54 /  90  20  10  60  30
WACO, TX              37  28  45  38  61 /  50  10  10  50  30
PARIS, TX             35  25  42  34  48 / 100  30  10  60  50
DENTON, TX            33  24  38  34  52 / 100  20  10  60  30
MCKINNEY, TX          33  25  40  34  51 /  90  20  10  60  30
DALLAS, TX            36  27  44  37  54 /  90  20  10  60  30
TERRELL, TX           35  29  44  36  54 /  90  30  10  60  40
CORSICANA, TX         37  29  48  39  57 /  70  20  10  50  40
TEMPLE, TX            37  28  48  42  63 /  40  10  10  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     33  23  39  34  54 / 100  10  10  60  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-
095-103>106-117>121-129>134-141>145.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>093-
100>102-115-116.


&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1123 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. PRECIP...FOR THE MOST PART IS COMING TO AN
END WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HOU/GLS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. FOG THREAT FOR
GLS SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES WITH IMPROVING
VSBY. STRONG INVERSION SHOULD KEEP LIFR/MVFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST THAT LIFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A VERY STRONG INVERSION. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014/

UPDATE...
AREAWIDE SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD AND LEAVING BEHIND A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO A COUPLE OF A TENTHS OF AN INCH. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE
COLD FRONT ALONG A WHARTON TO HOUSTON TO CLEVELAND LINE...SLOWLY
ADVANCING THROUGH THE CITY DURING THE HOUR AS KIAH IS 52/52...NORTH
WIND AT 14 MPH WITH LIGHT RAIN WHILE KHOU IS 70/66 WITH A SOUTH WIND
AT 7 MPH AND RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN WANE AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BACKING COLD AND DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN. OVERCAST
SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...GROUND HOG DAY`S MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES HAVE ARE ALREADY BEING MET JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE
BOUNDARY...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR STEADILY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY. THE ONLY ISSUES THIS SUPER SUNDAY WILL BE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND A BRIEF WINDOW OF
STRONG COASTAL REGION NORTHERLIES ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FRONT JUST ARRIVED IN KPSX WITH A BRISK 23 MPH NORTH
WIND. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z/4AM...COLD FRONT JUST NW OF A KCXO/KDWH/KTME LINE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 60S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS ABOUT
THAT MUCH. BEHIND THE FRONT KCLL/KUTS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SE TX AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE 40S BY AFTERNOON WITH SHALLOW
COLD ADVECTION. COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY REACH HOUSTON AREA AROUND
16Z OR 10AM AND THEN THE COAST AROUND 18Z OR 12PM. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO STICK AROUND UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DENSE SEA FOG MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LIKE 60 POPS. LATEST
TRENDS IN HRRR SUPPORT THIS NOTION WITH GENERALLY 0.1-0.25 INCHES
OF PRECIP. MAY BE SOME ISO HALF INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE SHOWERS
TRAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE SAME AREAS. POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE BIG BEND MOVES EAST WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING OVER THE AREA. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM KCRP SHOWS A STOUT CAP WITH 850MB TEMP AROUND 20C.
WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN FORECAST AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE ANY STRONG
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE CAP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH 00Z-06Z MON SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END TOWARDS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD AFFECT TX
ON TUESDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD REACH S ROCKIES/WEST TX AROUND 12Z TUE.
IN RESPONSE MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE WITH
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WITH SHOWERS BY 12Z TUE. MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE S
PLAINS WITH NEG TILT DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM IS THAT BEST PVA AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT SHOWERS SO LIKE 50/60 POPS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TROUGH AXIS ROTATES BY THE AREA. MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
WITH SFC FEATURES NAMELY WEAK COASTAL LOW AND WARM FRONT
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE KEEPING WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
COASTAL LOW MOVING ACROSS UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE GULF
BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH CAPPING. ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR
OUT LATE TUE WITH NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ON WED AND TEMPS SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S.

GFS/ECMWF ARE TRYING TO COME INTO SOME CONSENSUS FOR THE END OF
WEEK FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ZONAL WITH
POSSIBLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO JET AFFECTING THE AREA. MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOR SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS FOR THUR BUT LOOKING
LIKE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME ON FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE S ROCKIES AND TX ON
FRI. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND AMPLIFIED. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO SAT
AS TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PASSES THE AREA AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DRY OUT. COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH TRAILING THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS FOR
FRI MORNING. HAVE SOME AREAS WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
FORECAST WILL KEEP RAIN AS PRECIP TYPE BUT VERY WELL COULD BE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BASED ON TOP-DOWN PRECIP METHODOLOGY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP. STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR GOING
FORWARD WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

39

MARINE...
AREAS OF SEA FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SHOULD
MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND MATAGORDA BAY BY MIDDAY AND OFFSHORE AT
GALVESTON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTION STATEMENTS FOR THE BAYS
BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE OVERNIGHT BUT SEA HEIGHTS MAY NECESSITATE
EXTENDING THE ADVISORIES FURTHER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  31  50  42  62 /  70  10  10  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  38  52  45  64 /  80  20  10  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            59  42  50  50  63 /  70  30  10  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 1109 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.UPDATE...
AS OF 11 AM...THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM SHERMAN THROUGH
FORT WORTH ALLIANCE TO STEPHENVILLE AND COMANCHE. RADAR AND
SURFACE REPORTS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF SLEET FROM CISCO THROUGH
POSSUM KINGDOM TO NORTHWESTERN COOKE COUNTY INTO OKLAHOMA. WE
DID AN UPDATE EARLIER TO ADD JACK AND PALO PINTO COUNTIES TO THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. GIVEN THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH...AM NOT EXPECTING A
DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST TO THE METROPLEX AS
PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGES ARE TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-20 AND TO ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINTER
PRECIPITATION TODAY. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR THUNDER TODAY.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. IN THE DFW METROPLEX...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY SNOW
MIXED IN TODAY. TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
IS VERY CHALLENGING. THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AREAS AROUND KAFW ARE ALREADY NEAR 32 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S AS YOU MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
METROPLEX. BASED ON THE OVERNIGHT TRENDS...THINK ALL OF THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL BE OBSERVING -FZRA BY 14Z THIS MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SLEET OR SNOW TO MIX IN WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR COLUMN DEEPENS OVER THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT
KACT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER THE RAIN HAS ENDED
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FALLING
INTO THE 20S.

STRONG NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...
DROPPING BELOW 10 KTS LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE METROPLEX...
CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 1500-3200 FEET BUT WILL PREVAIL
BETWEEN 1000-2000 FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
CIGS TO FALL BELOW 1000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. AT
KACT...CIGS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

82/JLD


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER...MOVING EAST
TOWARDS TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
A PLUME OF DEEP WATER VAPOR WAS OBSERVED DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. A 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED 500 MB TEMPERATURES
OF -18 TO -20 DEG C JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT HAD LIKELY ADVECTED OVER LOCATIONS FROM MIDLAND TO
LUBBOCK...LOWERING STABILITY ALOFT. THIS AREA CORRESPONDED WELL
WITH OBSERVED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CELLULAR CONVECTION OBSERVED ON
REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDING FROM MIDLAND NORTHEAST TO CHILDRESS AT
0930Z. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE 850 MB FREEZING LINE
HOLDING UP IN THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM MOIST AIR MASS ALOFT
OVER NORTH TEXAS AT 10 DEG C. THIS LINE HAD OBVIOUSLY SHIFTED
SOUTH IN THE 10 HRS SINCE THE WEATHER BALLOON OBSERVATIONS AS
LIGHT SNOW WAS OBSERVED AS FAR SOUTH AS SYNDER TX AT 0930Z.

FIRST...A SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST:

WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH TO
INCLUDE MILLS...HAMILTON...BOSQUE...HILL...ELLIS...AND KAUFMAN
COUNTIES. THIS WAS DONE PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED ROAD
SURFACES THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THAT ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO COOPER. THIS
IS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS WE HAVE THE FREEZING LINE CREEPING THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACTIVE OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ABRUPTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A DRY
SLOT KICKS OUT OVER THE REGION ALOFT.

BEFORE THE DRY AIR ALOFT ARRIVES HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHERE WE ALREADY HAD
WINTRY WEATHER ADVISORIES OR A WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT.
FOR LOCATIONS THAT WERE ALREADY INCLUDED IN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS...THERE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OF NOTE WAS AN INCREASE
IN THE AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATION FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH IN A NARROW
BAND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FREEZE LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ICE ACCUMULATION EXTENDS FROM
COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM. THE REASONS FOR THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED
BELOW...BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO ELEVATED SURFACES TODAY. MOST OF THE FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FALL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30-32 DEGREE F
RANGE...MEANING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND/SOIL
TEMPERATURES WE HAVE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DOES NOT
APPLY TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES OF COURSE AS THESE SURFACES WILL
COOL BELOW FREEZING SOON AFTER THE AIR TEMPERATURE DROPS BELOW
FREEZING TODAY.

THE FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO
SHERMAN LINE STILL LOOK TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
MIXED IN. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS A RESULT. IN BETWEEN THE DFW AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO SEE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND A LATE TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW...
AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT AMOUNTS OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AS THIS REPRESENTS THE LIKELY TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN ALL 3
PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. LEFT THESE AREAS IN
AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING AMOUNTS LARGE
ENOUGH OF ANY INDIVIDUAL TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME. SUFFICE TO SAY TRAVEL WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY WEATHER WILL LEAD TO SLICK
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

SECOND...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION REGARDING OUR WINTER WEATHER
EVENT:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY...SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING. AS MENTIONED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
DISCUSSION...DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
REDUCTION IN STABILITY ALOFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY AS WELL. THIS POINT IN PARTICULAR GREATLY COMPLICATES THE
FORECAST BECAUSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BECOME MUCH MORE RESPONSIVE
TO MESOSCALE FORCING AS OPPOSED TO SYNOPTIC SCALE CONSIDERATIONS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CELLULAR CONVECTION MIXED IN BROADER
PRECIPITATION ZONES RESULTING IN LOCALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WHAT IS REFLECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND OUR OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WORKING AGAINST THE SOUTHWARD MOVING CANADIAN AIRMASS IS
WHAT IS DRIVING ALL OF THE DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONSISTENTLY SHOW THAT AIR PARCELS LIFTED
FROM AROUND THE 750 MB LEVEL HAVE POSITIVE CAPE ANYWHERE FROM 100
TO 250 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENT. THIS
UPRIGHT INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY PRETTY HIGH IN THIS PANNING OUT. THE MORE
IMPORTANT QUESTION IS: HOW WILL THIS AFFECT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY? THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS
TRICKY...HOWEVER IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
NOT CHANGE IMPACTS MUCH FROM WHAT WERE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING
IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTRY WEATHER ADVISORIES.

ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA WILL
ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/ACCUMULATION. THESE ARE THE
LOCATIONS WE ALREADY FEEL WILL SUFFER FROM THE WORST ROAD
CONDITIONS...SO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS. WHILE THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS...A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL THE MOST APPROPRIATE WAY TO ADDRESS
THESE IMPACTS AND THAT WILL NOT CHANGE WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

IF WE GET THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM
LINE...WHERE WE EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN...THIS
WILL ONLY MAKE FREEZING RAIN FALL FASTER ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
THIS SOUNDS REALLY BAD...ITS NOT OBVIOUS THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
LIKELY JUST CAUSE MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO RUN OFF AREA
ROADWAYS...AS LONG AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30 O 32 DEGREE F
RANGE. NOW THIS POINT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT...IF TEMPERATURES
WERE TO FALL INTO THE 20S WITH ENHANCED FREEZING RAIN RATES...WE
WOULD BE IN BIG TROUBLE AS ICE WOULD ACCUMULATE VERY RAPIDLY ON
AREA ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THIS 30 TO 32
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE DFW AREA WHILE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING. OBVIOUSLY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CLOSELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

ONCE AGAIN FOR THOSE COUNTIES IN BETWEEN DFW AND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...THIS IS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE GREATEST
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST. EMBEDDED STORMS NOT ONLY
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/RATES...BUT THEY ALSO TEND TO COOL
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THEIR UPDRAFT. THIS MAY
ACTUALLY RESULT IN A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
NEAR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE RESULTING IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET. WE WILL WATCH FOR ANY
PERSISTENT AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY LINE UP IN THIS
TRANSITION ZONE...AND MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SOME OF THESE AREAS TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING IF IT LOOKS LIKE A CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET
OR SNOW.

THIS BRINGS US TO THE LEAST CERTAIN PORTION OF THE FORECAST WHICH
IS THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE. 00Z AND 06Z MODELS HAVE REALLY
BEEN STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP WITH AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE
FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE. THE 00Z NAM WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE 06Z FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE AS EVERY
OTHER MODEL THAT WAS LOOKED AT WAS ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 DEGREES TOO
WARM. THEREFORE...THIS FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM.
NOTABLY...THE 06Z RAP KEPT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALL
DAY ACROSS THE DFW AREA...SO THE EXACT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS AN UNCERTAIN ONE AS OF THIS MORNING.

MODELS /EVEN THE WARMEST ONES/ CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE VERTICAL
THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW
WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...OR
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO SHERMAN LINE. ALSO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE H850 WARM NOSE HOLDING IN PLACE
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ALONG A COMANCHE TO
DFW TO BONHAM LINE...WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE OUR HIGHEST FREEZING
RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST. AS MENTIONED A FEW TIMES
ALREADY...IT IS IN BETWEEN THESE LOCATIONS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS MOST UNCERTAIN. HAVE A WINTRY MIX FORECAST FOR THESE
LOCATIONS DUE TO A VARYING DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR BASED ON YOUR
FAVORITE MODEL OF CHOICE.

IN SUMMARY:

FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS:

2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO SHERMAN LINE.

ONE TENTH OF A INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...MAINLY RESTRICTED TO
ELEVATED ROADWAYS...WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW OR SLEET
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG A COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM
LINE.

IN BETWEEN DFW AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATION COMBINED...AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN/ICE POSSIBLE.

LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXTEND ALONG A GOLDTHWAITE TO
HILLSBORO TO COOPER LINE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR
SLEET IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO COOPER
LINE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID AT THIS
TIME...SO NO WINTRY WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

NOTE: EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION IN ALL OF THESE LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A STRONG DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST RESULTING IN AN
ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT...SO ANY
WET ROADWAYS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE INTO BLACK ICE.
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL PROLONG ANY HAZARDOUS
ROAD CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...MADE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME WITH ALL
OF OUR FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN
ON TRACK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANCES OF
FREEZING RAIN BASED ON 00Z AND 06Z MODEL DATA. ANOTHER WINTER
STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN ON QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS LATE WEEK
STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION...HOWEVER
MODELS WERE AT LEAST TRENDING TOWARDS A LOWER IMPACT EVENT.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  27  42  36  54 /  90  20  10  60  30
WACO, TX              37  28  45  38  61 /  50  10  10  50  30
PARIS, TX             35  25  42  34  48 / 100  30  10  60  50
DENTON, TX            33  24  38  34  52 / 100  20  10  60  30
MCKINNEY, TX          33  25  40  34  51 /  90  20  10  60  30
DALLAS, TX            36  27  44  37  54 /  90  20  10  60  30
TERRELL, TX           35  29  44  36  54 /  90  30  10  60  40
CORSICANA, TX         37  29  48  39  57 /  70  20  10  50  40
TEMPLE, TX            37  28  48  42  63 /  40  10  10  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     33  23  39  34  54 / 100  10  10  60  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-
095-103>106-117>121-129>134-141>145.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>093-
100>102-115-116.


&&

$$

91/58









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1000 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.UPDATE...
AREAWIDE SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD AND LEAVING BEHIND A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO A COUPLE OF A TENTHS OF AN INCH. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE
COLD FRONT ALONG A WHARTON TO HOUSTON TO CLEVELAND LINE...SLOWLY
ADVANCING THROUGH THE CITY DURING THE HOUR AS KIAH IS 52/52...NORTH
WIND AT 14 MPH WITH LIGHT RAIN WHILE KHOU IS 70/66 WITH A SOUTH WIND
AT 7 MPH AND RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN WANE AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BACKING COLD AND DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN. OVERCAST
SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...GROUND HOG DAY`S MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES HAVE ARE ALREADY BEING MET JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE
BOUNDARY...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR STEADILY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY. THE ONLY ISSUES THIS SUPER SUNDAY WILL BE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND A BRIEF WINDOW OF
STRONG COASTAL REGION NORTHERLIES ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FRONT JUST ARRIVED IN KPSX WITH A BRISK 23 MPH NORTH
WIND. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD
BE AT OR JUST NORTH OF CXO BY 12Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR ALL
SITES WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE WITH
REGARDS TO RAINFALL AS LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE EVENING AND REMAINING THERE OVERNIGHT. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z/4AM...COLD FRONT JUST NW OF A KCXO/KDWH/KTME LINE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 60S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS ABOUT
THAT MUCH. BEHIND THE FRONT KCLL/KUTS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SE TX AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE 40S BY AFTERNOON WITH SHALLOW
COLD ADVECTION. COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY REACH HOUSTON AREA AROUND
16Z OR 10AM AND THEN THE COAST AROUND 18Z OR 12PM. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO STICK AROUND UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DENSE SEA FOG MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LIKE 60 POPS. LATEST
TRENDS IN HRRR SUPPORT THIS NOTION WITH GENERALLY 0.1-0.25 INCHES
OF PRECIP. MAY BE SOME ISO HALF INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE SHOWERS
TRAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE SAME AREAS. POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE BIG BEND MOVES EAST WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING OVER THE AREA. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM KCRP SHOWS A STOUT CAP WITH 850MB TEMP AROUND 20C.
WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN FORECAST AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE ANY STRONG
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE CAP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH 00Z-06Z MON SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END TOWARDS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD AFFECT TX
ON TUESDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD REACH S ROCKIES/WEST TX AROUND 12Z TUE.
IN RESPONSE MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE WITH
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WITH SHOWERS BY 12Z TUE. MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE S
PLAINS WITH NEG TILT DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM IS THAT BEST PVA AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT SHOWERS SO LIKE 50/60 POPS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TROUGH AXIS ROTATES BY THE AREA. MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
WITH SFC FEATURES NAMELY WEAK COASTAL LOW AND WARM FRONT
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE KEEPING WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
COASTAL LOW MOVING ACROSS UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE GULF
BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH CAPPING. ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR
OUT LATE TUE WITH NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ON WED AND TEMPS SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S.

GFS/ECMWF ARE TRYING TO COME INTO SOME CONSENSUS FOR THE END OF
WEEK FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ZONAL WITH
POSSIBLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO JET AFFECTING THE AREA. MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOR SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS FOR THUR BUT LOOKING
LIKE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME ON FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE S ROCKIES AND TX ON
FRI. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND AMPLIFIED. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO SAT
AS TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PASSES THE AREA AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DRY OUT. COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH TRAILING THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS FOR
FRI MORNING. HAVE SOME AREAS WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
FORECAST WILL KEEP RAIN AS PRECIP TYPE BUT VERY WELL COULD BE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BASED ON TOP-DOWN PRECIP METHODOLOGY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP. STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR GOING
FORWARD WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

39

MARINE...
AREAS OF SEA FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SHOULD
MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND MATAGORDA BAY BY MIDDAY AND OFFSHORE AT
GALVESTON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTION STATEMENTS FOR THE BAYS
BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE OVERNIGHT BUT SEA HEIGHTS MAY NECESSITATE
EXTENDING THE ADVISORIES FURTHER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  31  50  42  62 /  70  10  10  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  38  52  45  64 /  80  20  10  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            59  42  50  50  63 /  70  30  10  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 558 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINTER
PRECIPITATION TODAY. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR THUNDER TODAY.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. IN THE DFW METROPLEX...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY SNOW
MIXED IN TODAY. TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
IS VERY CHALLENGING. THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AREAS AROUND KAFW ARE ALREADY NEAR 32 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S AS YOU MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
METROPLEX. BASED ON THE OVERNIGHT TRENDS...THINK ALL OF THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL BE OBSERVING -FZRA BY 14Z THIS MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SLEET OR SNOW TO MIX IN WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR COLUMN DEEPENS OVER THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT
KACT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER THE RAIN HAS ENDED
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FALLING
INTO THE 20S.

STRONG NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...
DROPPING BELOW 10 KTS LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE METROPLEX...
CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 1500-3200 FEET BUT WILL PREVAIL
BETWEEN 1000-2000 FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
CIGS TO FALL BELOW 1000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. AT
KACT...CIGS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER...MOVING EAST
TOWARDS TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
A PLUME OF DEEP WATER VAPOR WAS OBSERVED DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. A 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED 500 MB TEMPERATURES
OF -18 TO -20 DEG C JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT HAD LIKELY ADVECTED OVER LOCATIONS FROM MIDLAND TO
LUBBOCK...LOWERING STABILITY ALOFT. THIS AREA CORRESPONDED WELL
WITH OBSERVED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CELLULAR CONVECTION OBSERVED ON
REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDING FROM MIDLAND NORTHEAST TO CHILDRESS AT
0930Z. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE 850 MB FREEZING LINE
HOLDING UP IN THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM MOIST AIR MASS ALOFT
OVER NORTH TEXAS AT 10 DEG C. THIS LINE HAD OBVIOUSLY SHIFTED
SOUTH IN THE 10 HRS SINCE THE WEATHER BALLOON OBSERVATIONS AS
LIGHT SNOW WAS OBSERVED AS FAR SOUTH AS SYNDER TX AT 0930Z.

FIRST...A SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST:

WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH TO
INCLUDE MILLS...HAMILTON...BOSQUE...HILL...ELLIS...AND KAUFMAN
COUNTIES. THIS WAS DONE PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED ROAD
SURFACES THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THAT ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO COOPER. THIS
IS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS WE HAVE THE FREEZING LINE CREEPING THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACTIVE OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ABRUPTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A DRY
SLOT KICKS OUT OVER THE REGION ALOFT.

BEFORE THE DRY AIR ALOFT ARRIVES HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHERE WE ALREADY HAD
WINTRY WEATHER ADVISORIES OR A WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT.
FOR LOCATIONS THAT WERE ALREADY INCLUDED IN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS...THERE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OF NOTE WAS AN INCREASE
IN THE AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATION FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH IN A NARROW
BAND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FREEZE LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ICE ACCUMULATION EXTENDS FROM
COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM. THE REASONS FOR THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED
BELOW...BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO ELEVATED SURFACES TODAY. MOST OF THE FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FALL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30-32 DEGREE F
RANGE...MEANING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND/SOIL
TEMPERATURES WE HAVE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DOES NOT
APPLY TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES OF COURSE AS THESE SURFACES WILL
COOL BELOW FREEZING SOON AFTER THE AIR TEMPERATURE DROPS BELOW
FREEZING TODAY.

THE FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO
SHERMAN LINE STILL LOOK TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
MIXED IN. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS A RESULT. IN BETWEEN THE DFW AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO SEE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND A LATE TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW...
AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT AMOUNTS OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AS THIS REPRESENTS THE LIKELY TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN ALL 3
PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. LEFT THESE AREAS IN
AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING AMOUNTS LARGE
ENOUGH OF ANY INDIVIDUAL TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME. SUFFICE TO SAY TRAVEL WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY WEATHER WILL LEAD TO SLICK
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

SECOND...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION REGARDING OUR WINTER WEATHER
EVENT:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY...SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING. AS MENTIONED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
DISCUSSION...DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
REDUCTION IN STABILITY ALOFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY AS WELL. THIS POINT IN PARTICULAR GREATLY COMPLICATES THE
FORECAST BECAUSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BECOME MUCH MORE RESPONSIVE
TO MESOSCALE FORCING AS OPPOSED TO SYNOPTIC SCALE CONSIDERATIONS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CELLULAR CONVECTION MIXED IN BROADER
PRECIPITATION ZONES RESULTING IN LOCALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WHAT IS REFLECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND OUR OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WORKING AGAINST THE SOUTHWARD MOVING CANADIAN AIRMASS IS
WHAT IS DRIVING ALL OF THE DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONSISTENTLY SHOW THAT AIR PARCELS LIFTED
FROM AROUND THE 750 MB LEVEL HAVE POSITIVE CAPE ANYWHERE FROM 100
TO 250 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENT. THIS
UPRIGHT INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY PRETTY HIGH IN THIS PANNING OUT. THE MORE
IMPORTANT QUESTION IS: HOW WILL THIS AFFECT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY? THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS
TRICKY...HOWEVER IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
NOT CHANGE IMPACTS MUCH FROM WHAT WERE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING
IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTRY WEATHER ADVISORIES.

ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA WILL
ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/ACCUMULATION. THESE ARE THE
LOCATIONS WE ALREADY FEEL WILL SUFFER FROM THE WORST ROAD
CONDITIONS...SO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS. WHILE THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS...A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL THE MOST APPROPRIATE WAY TO ADDRESS
THESE IMPACTS AND THAT WILL NOT CHANGE WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

IF WE GET THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM
LINE...WHERE WE EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN...THIS
WILL ONLY MAKE FREEZING RAIN FALL FASTER ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
THIS SOUNDS REALLY BAD...ITS NOT OBVIOUS THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
LIKELY JUST CAUSE MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO RUN OFF AREA
ROADWAYS...AS LONG AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30 O 32 DEGREE F
RANGE. NOW THIS POINT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT...IF TEMPERATURES
WERE TO FALL INTO THE 20S WITH ENHANCED FREEZING RAIN RATES...WE
WOULD BE IN BIG TROUBLE AS ICE WOULD ACCUMULATE VERY RAPIDLY ON
AREA ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THIS 30 TO 32
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE DFW AREA WHILE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING. OBVIOUSLY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CLOSELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

ONCE AGAIN FOR THOSE COUNTIES IN BETWEEN DFW AND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...THIS IS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE GREATEST
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST. EMBEDDED STORMS NOT ONLY
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/RATES...BUT THEY ALSO TEND TO COOL
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THEIR UPDRAFT. THIS MAY
ACTUALLY RESULT IN A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
NEAR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE RESULTING IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET. WE WILL WATCH FOR ANY
PERSISTENT AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY LINE UP IN THIS
TRANSITION ZONE...AND MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SOME OF THESE AREAS TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING IF IT LOOKS LIKE A CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET
OR SNOW.

THIS BRINGS US TO THE LEAST CERTAIN PORTION OF THE FORECAST WHICH
IS THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE. 00Z AND 06Z MODELS HAVE REALLY
BEEN STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP WITH AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE
FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE. THE 00Z NAM WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE 06Z FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE AS EVERY
OTHER MODEL THAT WAS LOOKED AT WAS ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 DEGREES TOO
WARM. THEREFORE...THIS FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM.
NOTABLY...THE 06Z RAP KEPT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALL
DAY ACROSS THE DFW AREA...SO THE EXACT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS AN UNCERTAIN ONE AS OF THIS MORNING.

MODELS /EVEN THE WARMEST ONES/ CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE VERTICAL
THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW
WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...OR
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO SHERMAN LINE. ALSO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE H850 WARM NOSE HOLDING IN PLACE
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ALONG A COMANCHE TO
DFW TO BONHAM LINE...WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE OUR HIGHEST FREEZING
RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST. AS MENTIONED A FEW TIMES
ALREADY...IT IS IN BETWEEN THESE LOCATIONS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS MOST UNCERTAIN. HAVE A WINTRY MIX FORECAST FOR THESE
LOCATIONS DUE TO A VARYING DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR BASED ON YOUR
FAVORITE MODEL OF CHOICE.

IN SUMMARY:

FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS:

2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO SHERMAN LINE.

ONE TENTH OF A INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...MAINLY RESTRICTED TO
ELEVATED ROADWAYS...WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW OR SLEET
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG A COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM
LINE.

IN BETWEEN DFW AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATION COMBINED...AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN/ICE POSSIBLE.

LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXTEND ALONG A GOLDTHWAITE TO
HILLSBORO TO COOPER LINE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR
SLEET IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO COOPER
LINE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID AT THIS
TIME...SO NO WINTRY WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

NOTE: EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION IN ALL OF THESE LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A STRONG DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST RESULTING IN AN
ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT...SO ANY
WET ROADWAYS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE INTO BLACK ICE.
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL PROLONG ANY HAZARDOUS
ROAD CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...MADE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME WITH ALL
OF OUR FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN
ON TRACK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANCES OF
FREEZING RAIN BASED ON 00Z AND 06Z MODEL DATA. ANOTHER WINTER
STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN ON QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS LATE WEEK
STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION...HOWEVER
MODELS WERE AT LEAST TRENDING TOWARDS A LOWER IMPACT EVENT.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  27  42  36  54 /  90  20  10  60  30
WACO, TX              39  28  45  38  61 /  50  10  10  50  30
PARIS, TX             35  25  42  34  48 / 100  30  10  60  50
DENTON, TX            33  24  38  34  52 / 100  20  10  60  30
MCKINNEY, TX          33  25  40  34  51 /  90  20  10  60  30
DALLAS, TX            36  27  44  37  54 /  90  20  10  60  30
TERRELL, TX           35  29  44  36  54 /  90  30  10  60  40
CORSICANA, TX         39  29  48  39  57 /  70  20  10  50  40
TEMPLE, TX            39  28  48  42  63 /  40  10  10  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     33  23  39  34  54 / 100  10  10  60  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-
095-102>106-116>121-129>134-141>145.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>093-
100-101-115.


&&

$$

82/69






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 542 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD
BE AT OR JUST NORTH OF CXO BY 12Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR ALL
SITES WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE WITH
REGARDS TO RAINFALL AS LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE EVENING AND REMAINING THERE OVERNIGHT. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z/4AM...COLD FRONT JUST NW OF A KCXO/KDWH/KTME LINE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 60S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS ABOUT
THAT MUCH. BEHIND THE FRONT KCLL/KUTS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SE TX AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE 40S BY AFTERNOON WITH SHALLOW
COLD ADVECTION. COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY REACH HOUSTON AREA AROUND
16Z OR 10AM AND THEN THE COAST AROUND 18Z OR 12PM. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO STICK AROUND UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DENSE SEA FOG MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LIKE 60 POPS. LATEST
TRENDS IN HRRR SUPPORT THIS NOTION WITH GENERALLY 0.1-0.25 INCHES
OF PRECIP. MAY BE SOME ISO HALF INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE SHOWERS
TRAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE SAME AREAS. POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE BIG BEND MOVES EAST WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING OVER THE AREA. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM KCRP SHOWS A STOUT CAP WITH 850MB TEMP AROUND 20C.
WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN FORECAST AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE ANY STRONG
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE CAP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH 00Z-06Z MON SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END TOWARDS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD AFFECT TX
ON TUESDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD REACH S ROCKIES/WEST TX AROUND 12Z TUE.
IN RESPONSE MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE WITH
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WITH SHOWERS BY 12Z TUE. MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE S
PLAINS WITH NEG TILT DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM IS THAT BEST PVA AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT SHOWERS SO LIKE 50/60 POPS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TROUGH AXIS ROTATES BY THE AREA. MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
WITH SFC FEATURES NAMELY WEAK COASTAL LOW AND WARM FRONT
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE KEEPING WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
COASTAL LOW MOVING ACROSS UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE GULF
BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH CAPPING. ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR
OUT LATE TUE WITH NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ON WED AND TEMPS SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S.

GFS/ECMWF ARE TRYING TO COME INTO SOME CONSENSUS FOR THE END OF
WEEK FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ZONAL WITH
POSSIBLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO JET AFFECTING THE AREA. MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOR SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS FOR THUR BUT LOOKING
LIKE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME ON FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE S ROCKIES AND TX ON
FRI. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND AMPLIFIED. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO SAT
AS TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PASSES THE AREA AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DRY OUT. COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH TRAILING THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS FOR
FRI MORNING. HAVE SOME AREAS WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
FORECAST WILL KEEP RAIN AS PRECIP TYPE BUT VERY WELL COULD BE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BASED ON TOP-DOWN PRECIP METHODOLOGY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP. STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR GOING
FORWARD WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

39

MARINE...
AREAS OF SEA FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SHOULD
MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND MATAGORDA BAY BY MIDDAY AND OFFSHORE AT
GALVESTON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTION STATEMENTS FOR THE BAYS
BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE OVERNIGHT BUT SEA HEIGHTS MAY NECESSITATE
EXTENDING THE ADVISORIES FURTHER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  31  50  42  62 /  50  10  10  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  37  52  45  64 /  60  20  10  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            57  40  50  50  63 /  60  30  10  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 448 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z/4AM...COLD FRONT JUST NW OF A KCXO/KDWH/KTME LINE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 60S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS ABOUT
THAT MUCH. BEHIND THE FRONT KCLL/KUTS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SE TX AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE 40S BY AFTERNOON WITH SHALLOW
COLD ADVECTION. COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY REACH HOUSTON AREA AROUND
16Z OR 10AM AND THEN THE COAST AROUND 18Z OR 12PM. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO STICK AROUND UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DENSE SEA FOG MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LIKE 60 POPS. LATEST
TRENDS IN HRRR SUPPORT THIS NOTION WITH GENERALLY 0.1-0.25 INCHES
OF PRECIP. MAY BE SOME ISO HALF INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE SHOWERS
TRAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE SAME AREAS. POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE BIG BEND MOVES EAST WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING OVER THE AREA. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM KCRP SHOWS A STOUT CAP WITH 850MB TEMP AROUND 20C.
WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN FORECAST AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE ANY STRONG
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE CAP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH 00Z-06Z MON SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END TOWARDS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD AFFECT TX
ON TUESDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD REACH S ROCKIES/WEST TX AROUND 12Z TUE.
IN RESPONSE MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE WITH
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WITH SHOWERS BY 12Z TUE. MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE S
PLAINS WITH NEG TILT DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM IS THAT BEST PVA AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT SHOWERS SO LIKE 50/60 POPS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TROUGH AXIS ROTATES BY THE AREA. MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
WITH SFC FEATURES NAMELY WEAK COASTAL LOW AND WARM FRONT
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE KEEPING WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
COASTAL LOW MOVING ACROSS UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE GULF
BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH CAPPING. ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR
OUT LATE TUE WITH NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ON WED AND TEMPS SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S.

GFS/ECMWF ARE TRYING TO COME INTO SOME CONSENSUS FOR THE END OF
WEEK FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ZONAL WITH
POSSIBLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO JET AFFECTING THE AREA. MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOR SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS FOR THUR BUT LOOKING
LIKE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME ON FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE S ROCKIES AND TX ON
FRI. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND AMPLIFIED. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO SAT
AS TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PASSES THE AREA AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DRY OUT. COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH TRAILING THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS FOR
FRI MORNING. HAVE SOME AREAS WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
FORECAST WILL KEEP RAIN AS PRECIP TYPE BUT VERY WELL COULD BE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BASED ON TOP-DOWN PRECIP METHODOLOGY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP. STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR GOING
FORWARD WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

39

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF SEA FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SHOULD
MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND MATAGORDA BAY BY MIDDAY AND OFFSHORE AT
GALVESTON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTION STATEMENTS FOR THE BAYS
BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE OVERNIGHT BUT SEA HEIGHTS MAY NECESSITATE
EXTENDING THE ADVISORIES FURTHER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  31  50  42  62 /  50  10  10  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  37  52  45  64 /  60  20  10  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            57  40  50  50  63 /  60  30  10  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 442 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER...MOVING EAST
TOWARDS TEXAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
A PLUME OF DEEP WATER VAPOR WAS OBSERVED DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. A 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED 500 MB TEMPERATURES
OF -18 TO -20 DEG C JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT HAD LIKELY ADVECTED OVER LOCATIONS FROM MIDLAND TO
LUBBOCK...LOWERING STABILITY ALOFT. THIS AREA CORRESPONDED WELL
WITH OBSERVED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CELLULAR CONVECTION OBSERVED ON
REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDING FROM MIDLAND NORTHEAST TO CHILDRESS AT
0930Z. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE 850 MB FREEZING LINE
HOLDING UP IN THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM MOIST AIR MASS ALOFT
OVER NORTH TEXAS AT 10 DEG C. THIS LINE HAD OBVIOUSLY SHIFTED
SOUTH IN THE 10 HRS SINCE THE WEATHER BALLOON OBSERVATIONS AS
LIGHT SNOW WAS OBSERVED AS FAR SOUTH AS SYNDER TX AT 0930Z.

FIRST...A SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST:

WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH TO
INCLUDE MILLS...HAMILTON...BOSQUE...HILL...ELLIS...AND KAUFMAN
COUNTIES. THIS WAS DONE PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED ROAD
SURFACES THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THAT ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO COOPER. THIS
IS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS WE HAVE THE FREEZING LINE CREEPING THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACTIVE OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ABRUPTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A DRY
SLOT KICKS OUT OVER THE REGION ALOFT.

BEFORE THE DRY AIR ALOFT ARRIVES HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHERE WE ALREADY HAD
WINTRY WEATHER ADVISORIES OR A WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT.
FOR LOCATIONS THAT WERE ALREADY INCLUDED IN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS...THERE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OF NOTE WAS AN INCREASE
IN THE AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATION FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH IN A NARROW
BAND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FREEZE LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ICE ACCUMULATION EXTENDS FROM
COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM. THE REASONS FOR THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED
BELOW...BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO ELEVATED SURFACES TODAY. MOST OF THE FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FALL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30-32 DEGREE F
RANGE...MEANING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND/SOIL
TEMPERATURES WE HAVE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DOES NOT
APPLY TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES OF COURSE AS THESE SURFACES WILL
COOL BELOW FREEZING SOON AFTER THE AIR TEMPERATURE DROPS BELOW
FREEZING TODAY.

THE FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO
SHERMAN LINE STILL LOOK TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
MIXED IN. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS A RESULT. IN BETWEEN THE DFW AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO SEE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND A LATE TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW
AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT AMOUNTS OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AS THIS REPRESENTS THE LIKELY TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN ALL 3
PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. LEFT THESE AREAS IN
AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING AMOUNTS LARGE
ENOUGH OF ANY INDIVIDUAL TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME. SUFFICE TO SAY TRAVEL WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY WEATHER WILL LEAD TO SLICK
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

SECOND...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION REGARDING OUR WINTER WEATHER
EVENT:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY...SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING. AS MENTIONED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
DISCUSSION...DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
REDUCTION IN STABILITY ALOFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY AS WELL. THIS POINT IN PARTICULAR GREATLY COMPLICATES THE
FORECAST BECAUSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BECOME MUCH MORE RESPONSIVE
TO MESOSCALE FORCING AS OPPOSED TO SYNOPTIC SCALE CONSIDERATIONS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CELLULAR CONVECTION MIXED IN BROADER
PRECIPITATION ZONES RESULTING IN LOCALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM WHAT IS REFLECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND OUR OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WORKING AGAINST THE SOUTHWARD MOVING CANADIAN AIRMASS IS
WHAT IS DRIVING ALL OF THE DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONSISTENTLY SHOW THAT AIR PARCELS LIFTED
FROM AROUND THE 750 MB LEVEL HAVE POSITIVE CAPE ANYWHERE FROM 100
TO 250 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENT. THIS
UPRIGHT INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY PRETTY HIGH IN THIS PANNING OUT. THE MORE
IMPORTANT QUESTION IS: HOW WILL THIS AFFECT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY? THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS
TRICKY...HOWEVER IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
NOT CHANGE IMPACTS MUCH FROM WHAT WERE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING
IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTRY WEATHER ADVISORIES.

ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA WILL
ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/ACCUMULATION. THESE ARE THE
LOCATIONS WE ALREADY FEEL WILL SUFFER FROM THE WORST ROAD
CONDITIONS...SO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS. WHILE THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS...A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL THE MOST APPROPRIATE WAY TO ADDRESS
THESE IMPACTS AND THAT WILL NOT CHANGE WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

IF WE GET THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM
LINE...WHERE WE EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN...THIS
WILL ONLY MAKE FREEZING RAIN FALL FASTER ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
THIS SOUNDS REALLY BAD...ITS NOT OBVIOUS THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
LIKELY JUST CAUSE MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO RUN OFF AREA
ROADWAYS...AS LONG AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30 O 32 DEGREE F
RANGE. NOW THIS POINT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT...IF TEMPERATURES
WERE TO FALL INTO THE 20S WITH ENHANCED FREEZING RAIN RATES...WE
WOULD BE IN BIG TROUBLE AS ICE WOULD ACCUMULATE VERY RAPIDLY ON
AREA ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THIS 30 TO 32
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE DFW AREA WHILE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING. OBVIOUSLY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CLOSELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

ONCE AGAIN FOR THOSE COUNTIES IN BETWEEN DFW AND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...THIS IS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE GREATEST
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST. EMBEDDED STORMS NOT ONLY
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/RATES...BUT THEY ALSO TEND TO COOL
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THEIR UPDRAFT. THIS MAY
ACTUALLY RESULT IN A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
NEAR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE RESULTING IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET. WE WILL WATCH FOR ANY
PERSISTENT AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY LINE UP IN THIS
TRANSITION ZONE...AND MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SOME OF THESE AREAS TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING IF IT LOOKS LIKE A CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET
OR SNOW.

THIS BRINGS US TO THE LEAST CERTAIN PORTION OF THE FORECAST WHICH
IS THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE. 00Z AND 06Z MODELS HAVE REALLY
BEEN STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP WITH AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE
FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE. THE 00Z NAM WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE 06Z FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE AS EVERY
OTHER MODEL THAT WAS LOOKED AT WAS ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 DEGREES TOO
WARM. THEREFORE...THIS FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM.
NOTABLY...THE 06Z RAP KEPT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALL
DAY ACROSS THE DFW AREA...SO THE EXACT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS AN UNCERTAIN ONE AS OF THIS MORNING.

MODELS /EVEN THE WARMEST ONES/ CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE VERTICAL
THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW
WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...OR
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO SHERMAN LINE. ALSO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE H850 WARM NOSE HOLDING IN PLACE
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ALONG A COMANCHE TO
DFW TO BONHAM LINE...WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE OUR HIGHEST FREEZING
RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST. AS MENTIONED A FEW TIMES
ALREADY...IT IS IN BETWEEN THESE LOCATIONS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS MOST UNCERTAIN. HAVE A WINTRY MIX FORECAST FOR THESE
LOCATIONS DUE TO A VARYING DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR BASED ON YOUR
FAVORITE MODEL OF CHOICE.

IN SUMMARY:

FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS:

2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO SHERMAN LINE.

ONE TENTH OF A INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...MAINLY RESTRICTED TO
ELEVATED ROADWAYS...WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW OR SLEET
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG A COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM
LINE.

IN BETWEEN DFW AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATION COMBINED...AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN/ICE POSSIBLE.

LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXTEND ALONG A GOLDTHWAITE TO
HILLSBORO TO COOPER LINE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR
SLEET IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO COOPER
LINE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID AT THIS
TIME...SO NO WINTRY WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

NOTE: EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION IN ALL OF THESE LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A STRONG DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST RESULTING IN AN
ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT...SO ANY
WET ROADWAYS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE INTO BLACK ICE.
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL PROLONG ANY HAZARDOUS
ROAD CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...MADE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME WITH ALL
OF OUR FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN
ON TRACK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANCES OF
FREEZING RAIN BASED ON 00Z AND 06Z MODEL DATA. ANOTHER WINTER
STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN ON QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS LATE WEEK
STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION...HOWEVER
MODELS WERE AT LEAST TRENDING TOWARDS A LOWER IMPACT EVENT.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  27  42  36  54 /  90  20  10  60  30
WACO, TX              39  28  45  38  61 /  50  10  10  50  30
PARIS, TX             35  25  42  34  48 / 100  30  10  60  50
DENTON, TX            33  24  38  34  52 / 100  20  10  60  30
MCKINNEY, TX          33  25  40  34  51 /  90  20  10  60  30
DALLAS, TX            36  27  44  37  54 /  90  20  10  60  30
TERRELL, TX           35  29  44  36  54 /  90  30  10  60  40
CORSICANA, TX         39  29  48  39  57 /  70  20  10  50  40
TEMPLE, TX            39  28  48  42  63 /  40  10  10  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     33  23  39  34  54 / 100  10  10  60  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-
095-102>106-116>121-129>134-141>145.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>093-
100-101-115.


&&

$$

 /






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1147 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014


.AVIATION...
FRONT IS STILL CRAWLING SOUTHWARD AND HASN`T REACHED CLL YET BUT
SHOULD AROUND 07-08Z. CIGS ARE IFR OR LIFR ACROSS THE AREA (EXCEPT
CLL) AS WAS EXPECTED AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT
WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE FOR CLL AREA BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
HOVER IN THE 1000-1500 FT RANGE THERE. ELSEWHERE CIGS 300-800 WILL
BE COMMON. SEA FOG GETTING THICKER AT TIMES AT GLS AND LL WINDS
STILL BACKED THERE. TOWARD MORNING THOUGH THE WINDS VEER AND SO
VISBY WILL PROBABLY CREEP BACK UP. SPRINKLES CONTINUE IN WAA
PATTERN AND AS LLJ SHIFTS EAST EXPECT THAT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY AFTER 10-12Z AS LL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS THE
REGION PRODUCING DEEPER LIFT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LAYER
OF INSTABILITY ALOFT BUT BY 15Z OR SO THE PROFILE SHOULD JUST
SUPPORT UPGLIDE RAINS THOUGH MAYBE WIDESPREAD. RAINS TAPER OFF IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WINDS PICKUP NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING GUSTY. CIGS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY 21-03Z ACROSS THE
REGION.
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE OVERALL FCST AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
ROUGHLY ON TIME FOR FROPA OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES JUST AFTER MID-
NIGHT...THEN PROGRESSING TO THE COASTLINE BY NOON SUN. MEANWHILE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE ISSUE
(WITH THE MORE DENSE AREAS OF SEA FOG PREVAILING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST/BEACHES). WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC APPEAR TO BE STAYING ON
THE HIGH SIDE (AS PER HGX VAD) SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG/REALLY LOW VISIBILITIES FOR THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE
ATTM. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

AVIATION...VERY MOIST LL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH ESE TO SE
FLOW. A FEW SPRINKLES DOTTING THE AREA BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED
NEAR THE COLD FRONT. AT 01Z THE FRONT WAS CREEPING SOUTH AT ABOUT
7-8 KNOTS AND SHOULD REACH CLL AROUND 07-09Z. CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND
LIKELY DROPPING INTO LIFR 300-500 FT. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT THE CIGS MAY RISE SLIGHTLY BUT LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE
COMMON AND WILL KEEP THE LL MOIST. SEA FOG WAS APPARENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS MOVED ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH GLS VISBY DOWN TO
2-5 MILES. EXPECT THAT VISBY 2-5 MILE VISBY WILL SPREAD INLAND AS
TEMPERATURES VERY SLOW LOWER FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. RR OF UPPER JET TRAVERSES THE AREA SUNDAY AND EXPECT THAT
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. DRYING SETS IN WITH 850
FROPA 00Z IN THE CLL/UTS AREAS AND SHOULD BE THE END OF THE
PRECIP. STRONG INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN AND TRAPPED LL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CIGS OF 1000-1500 IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      46  48  35  51  44 /  40  50  10  10  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  63  39  52  46 /  40  70  20  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            57  61  42  50  50 /  30  70  40  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 1012 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS S TX OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS TO LIFR/IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALI TO
VCT. TEH VSBY AT CRP IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO
ELEVATED WINDS...HOWEVER THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
LEVELS AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VCT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY AROUND 13Z-15Z.
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD IMPROVE 15Z OR SO. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY N WINDS WILL DVLP BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR FRONTAL TIMING
AND AFFECTS. TIMING IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD...BUT MAYBE AN
HOUR OR SO FASTER. BIGGER CHANGE WAS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND LOWERING DPTS FASTER. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING...BUT
MAY BE DECREASING TEMPS TOO QUICKLY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
MID 40S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS INTO THE 50S FOR
EVERYONE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME UPPER 40S NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...SKIES HAVE CLRD OUT ACROSS MUCH OF S TX EXCEPT FOR
AROUND VCT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS S TX OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DVLPG FOG. A MIX OF STRATUS AND
FOG WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING AND IFR/LIFR
OVRNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A HEBBRONVILLE TO TILDEN LINE. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH S TX SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
WSHFT INITIALLY ACROSS THE VCT AREA BETWEEN 13-15Z AND
LRD...ALI...CRP BTWN 15-17Z. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE N
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA`S ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CIGS AT MVFR
LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SOUTHERLY FLOW
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LVLS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE STATE AND BRING DOWN AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA...WITH IT ENTERING
THE THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA RIGHT AROUND 12Z AND IT
PUSHING OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE TRICKY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED IN THE MORNING...AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
SUFFICIENT UPPER LVL SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING TONIGHT AND INCREASING TOMORROW.
KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WILL BE FOR DEVELOPMENT. FOG WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE
TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
EXPECT WINDS OVERLAND TO DIMINISH MORE TONIGHT...AND AREAS OF FOG
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL BEND...PLAINS...AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. FOG OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE MORE
DENSE TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AS WELL...WITH LOWER
WINDS...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE COOL WATERS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM FORECAST A BIT OF
A ROLLER COASTER ON TEMPS AND WX. FORECAST BEGINS WITH COOL
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S ON MONDAY WITH NORTH WIND
WEAKENING AND VEERING NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND DIGGING TROUGH
COMING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND DRAGS BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE AREA WITH DRYING/CLEARING OCCURRING WEST TO EAST. THIS RESULTS
IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES HERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST A
STRONGER RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY DRY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...BUT COOLER WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
THEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS KEEPING
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...PRODUCING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 40S THURSDAY AND UPPER 40S
FRIDAY FOR MANY AREAS. THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...PUSHING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND
ACTUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  67  39  52  49  /  10  30  10  10  40
VICTORIA          58  59  35  53  48  /  20  50  10  10  50
LAREDO            63  66  39  57  48  /  10  20  10  10  20
ALICE             62  67  38  53  47  /  10  30  10  10  40
ROCKPORT          63  67  39  50  50  /  20  40  10  10  50
COTULLA           56  58  35  55  45  /  10  30  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        64  68  39  53  48  /  10  30  10  10  40
NAVY CORPUS       64  67  37  52  51  /  10  30  10  10  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 507 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUCKLING OVER INTO MORE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE TIDEWATER OF
VIRGINIA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 505 PM EST SUNDAY...

MINOR UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING IN WEST AS PRECIP TAKING
ITS TIME TO ADVANCE INTO RELATIVDELY DRY AIRMASS. RADAR MOSAIC AND
LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIP MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING. TWEAKED SKY COVER AS WELL TO ADJUST
FOR PARTIAL CLEARING IN EAST WHICH MAY NOT THICKEN BACK UP UNTIL
LATE EVENING AS WELL. VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS PER LATEST
CONDITIONS...SLOWING DOWN EVENING COOLING A BIT. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 235 PM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS SHOWING A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND LACK OF KICKER UPSTREAM. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER TX/OK
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PUSHING THE FRONT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHERE IT STALLS FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE VA
PIEDMONT. STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A 6-8 HOUR
WINDOW OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE WV MTNS AND SPREADING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT BY DAWN. GOING
TO BE A TRICKY SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NRN/NWRN FRINGE OF THE CWA FROM
GREENBRIER TO AMHERST AS MODEL FLIRTING WITH THE 8H ZERO ISOTHERM
SHIFTING SE ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES EAST AFTER 12Z. QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH QPF IS LEFT. AT THIS TIME WPC FAVORS LOW SNOW AMOUNTS. NOT
SEEING ANY ICE ISSUES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT COULD SEE SLEET INTO
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF TAZEWELL. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER AND
BATH INTO THE BLUE RIDGE COULD PICK UP A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS NOT OF THE QUESTION...BUT SWEET SPOT
FOR SNOW LOVERS WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OF US. JUST A COLD RAIN FOR 95
PERCENT OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AS CLOUDS
START TO ENVELOP THE REGION THIS EVENING...HOLDING TEMPS UP. WE WILL
SEE DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS WELL WITH THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOISTENING THE LOW LVLS...AND SCOURING OUT ANY RESIDUAL DRY AIR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE HIGHER RIDGES
OF AMHERST TO GREENBRIER WITH MID TO UPPER 30S I-81 CORRIDOR AND
EAST TO LYH WHILE SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NC COUNTIES DROP TO LOWER
40S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP TOMORROW LIMIT HEATING. SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE TOO LATE
IN HELPING IN THE WEST BUT GIVEN A LACK OF DECENT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...WILL SEE TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
SEASONAL NORMS BUT NOT ARCTIC COLD....RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO THE ALLEGHANYS...TO LOWER TO MID 40S
FROM LYNCHBURG TO ROANOKE...ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WHILE SOUTHSIDE VA AND NW NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 257 PM EST SUNDAY...

WEDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE NAM/MET...WHICH USUALLY DOES BEST WITH THERMAL
STRUCTURE IN WEDGES...COOLED OFF A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. JUDGING
BY THE STRENGTH AND THE DIRECTION OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT...AND
THE SURFACE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WINDS...THERE`S A FAIR CHANCE
THAT SUBFREEZING AIR TEMPS ARE IN PLACE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM SW VA INTO NW NC LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY FROM EASTERN
ASHE/WATAUGA CREEPING UP TO FLOYD COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING
THESE EVENTS...THE WEDGE IS TYPICALLY STRONGEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT TEMPS RIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TYPICALLY
FALL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A WET AND WARM
GROUND WOULD PROBABLY PRECLUDE ANY LIGHT ICING ON THE ROADS...MAINLY
IN THE TREES AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ONLY HAVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...NOTHING TO BE TOO CONCERNED ABOUT AS OF
YET...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY IF THE 2M NAM TEMPS
CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER AND STAY BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY AND INTO A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY EVENING...TEMPS MAY
FALL TO FREEZING IN EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...AND
PERHAPS ALSO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...IN AND OUT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FROM
SW TO NE BY LATE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN BODY OF
PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD TURN
RAIN TO SNOW WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -9C LATE DAY IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER. MUCH OF THE RAIN MAY BE OVER WITH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ELSEWHERE. AS THE WEDGE BREAKS WEDNESDAY MORNING...CUSTOMARY GUSTS
FROM THE SSE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE OBSERVED IN THE
BLF/JFX/MKJ CORRIDOR. MORE WINTERLIKE AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SUNDAY...

WILL START THURSDAY MORNING OFF WITH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND THEN
PUSHES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE WIND
FLOW WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHSIDE TO WARM INTO THE MID 40S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...HOWEVER INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR BUILDING IN
WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS STUCK IN THE
30S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE EVENING WILL HELP LIMIT
COOLING OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOOKING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS TO
HOLD IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN A COOL EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ALL THAT MUCH
WARMING. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS AS TO HOW STRONG
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH WILL BE...AND HOW MUCH RESULTING PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA. THE ECMWF FORECAST MODEL APPEARS VERY BULLISH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION...AND OVERDONE CONSIDERING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR VERY STRONG. THEREFORE...STICKING A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS MODEL AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BELIEVE WE WILL START THE DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
THAT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES AS BOTH TIMING AND THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DIFFER AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA...BEFORE ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH WARMER GULF AIR INTO OUR AREA JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKING AT A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING...FREEZING RAIN NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR...AND THEN SNOW FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CAUSING NEARLY
ALL PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...

WILL START TO SEE CIGS LOWER THIS AFTERNOON FROM ROANOKE EAST.
ALREADY GETTING CIGS MVFR AT BLF AND WILL EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SOON
AT LWB/BLF BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANCE FOR LOWER THAN 6SM
VSBY...AS RADAR HAS THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS WRN TN AT THIS TIME.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEFORE THEN THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUCH THAT CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR. AS THIS OCCURS AND LIGHT RAIN
BECOMES MORE STEADY VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB VFR CONDITIONS OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE IN SUB MVFR CONDITIONS IS
MODERATE OVER THE REGION...BUT APPEARS WILL SEE THIS AT BLF/LWB
THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT SPREADING TO THE PIEDMONT AND
ROANOKE BY MORNING.

MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MEAGER UPSLOPE MAY
HOLD CLOUDS IN THE BLF AREA LONGER BUT LOOKS VFR AFTER 21-22Z
MONDAY.

THINGS CLEAR OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

ANOTHER BREAK BY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

THREAT OF FLOODING ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL LOOKING
LOW...ALTHOUGH THE FROZEN...SOME THAWING GROUND...PLUS REPORTS OF
RIVER/STREAM ICE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATE PROBLEMS. FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THIS FIRST SYSTEM TONIGHT-MONDAY ARE INDICATING
GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE UPPER
ROANOKE BASIN AND PORTIONS AND JAMES. FORECASTS FROM SURROUNDING
RIVER FORECAST CENTERS SHOWING RIVERS COMING UP TO JUST UNDER ACTION
STAGES. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ALSO INDICATING LOW RISK OF FLOODING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LESS
ON PRECIP AMOUNTS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...WP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 659 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM NEW YORK TO ARKANSAS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOWS PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG
THIS FRONT AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500MB TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET OVERNIGHT. MORE ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVE DOES NOT GET CLOSE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEGINNING OF
COOLING WILL ALSO BE LATE TONIGHT. ANY CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO
SLEET AND SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WOULD NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

DEEP MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. BETTER PUSH TO THE
EAST WILL BE OVERNIGHT. TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PAST FEW MODELS RUNS
BRINGING LEADING EDGE OF RAIN INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AROUND
12Z/7AM TODAY. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ALSO BRING THE RAIN INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN 11Z/6AM AND 14Z/9AM.

SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY INTO NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND HELP ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE INTO THE 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE BY
00Z/7PM TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY SURFACE DEW POINTS SURGE
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GFS AND LOCAL WRF ARE SHOWING AN
AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS FROM AROUND SMYTH/TAZEWELL COUNTIES INTO
ROCKBRIDGE AND AMHERST COUNTIES. COULD HAVE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN ALONG THIS AXIS BY MONDAY MORNING.

GFS BUFKIT WAS SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE BY 12Z
THAN THE NAM. APPEARS ANY MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET WOULD BE AFTER
09Z/4AM TONIGHT AND WOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
INTO BATH COUNTY VIRGINIA.

STARTING OFF RELATIVELY MILD THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...NOT FAR TO REACH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. VERY BROAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD
RESULTING FROM GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IN LOWER 200 MILLIBARS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA FROM
COUPLED JET MAXIMA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO END IN MOST AREAS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

SUFFICIENT COLD AIR MAY BE DRAWN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STORM TO ALLOW FOR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND AS FAR
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST WV...ADJACENT AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST VA...INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY OF VA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS
CONTINUE WITH RECENT TRENDS OF NOT SUPPORTING AN AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH
PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE STORM BEFORE THE
AREA LOSES THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE RUNNING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER. AS A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
MINIMAL...PERHAPS NO MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

WEATHER FOR LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
GOVERNED BY COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AS SURFACE RIDGE ON BACKSIDE OF STORM BUILDS EAST OF OUT THE OHIO
VALLEY...THEN SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS
AS COOL WEDGE IS ESTABLISHED.

NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MAKE A MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PASSING WEST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER/NEAR THE
DELMARVA AREA ON BAROCLINIC ZONE ON EAST SIDE OF COASTAL COOL WEDGE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA...MOST
NOTABLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER
ARRIVAL OF MAIN BODY OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS ON
TUESDAY SUCH THAT ANY GLAZING SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...AND
LOCALIZED TO THE AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF WARM AIR.

FORECAST THU NIGHT-SAT REMAINS COMPLICATED. HOWEVER...THE NEW 12Z
ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER INLAND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTING US FRI-SAT...WHICH TRENDS TOWARD THE
GEFS/ECWMF ENSEMBLE/CMC AND GFS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/CMC/GFS AND WPC.

FIRST...FRONT EXITS EAST GOING INTO WED EVENING WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SE WV...ALTHOUGH SFC FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC
PRETTY FAST AND THIS FAVORS A LIMITED THREAT.

LOOKING DRY HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH 1041 ECWMF/1047 GFS BUILDS ESE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST/WRN OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE THIS
OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAST AND SPLIT WITH SRN JET
SITUATED ACROSS SRN TX INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE NRN STREAM IS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FORECAST PROBLEMS ARISE LATE THU NIGHT-SAT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN INTO THE SW WITH A LIGHT QPF SHOWING UP IN THE
NC MTNS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS IS 10MB STRONG THAN THE ECMWF WHICH
SLOWS THINGS DOWN. HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDER TEMPS OF
THE GFS BUT EDGE PCPN INTO THE NC MTNS AS SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH STARTS TO WEDGE
SOUTHEAST...WHILE SFC FRONT AND LOW FORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS WILL BE
A PERIOD WHERE WILL WATCH PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE NE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND WHERE THE COLDER AIR STAYS
IN THE LOW LVLS WITH A WARM NOSE STARTING TO WORK IN FROM THE SW.
COULD BE A WINTRY MESS FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
CHANGEOVER TOWARD COLD RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR A MORE RAIN/SNOW THREAT...WITH SOME
ICE POTENTIAL.

THE MODELS THEN DRAG THE ROCKIES LOW AND UPPER SYSTEM INTO THE SRN
PLAINS HEADING INTO SAT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. STILL A WEDGE IS INDICATED OFF THE GFS WHILE THE
ECWMF BUMPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MORE OVER WRN VA/NC KEEPING IT
RAIN. GFS SHOWING RAIN AS WELL AS THICKNESSES WARM AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH STRONG SW FLOW...SO SATURDAY WILL BE WET WITH
MAYBE NRN CWA EXPERIENCING A WINTRY MIX.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...THERE IS A TREND TOWARD A WARMER/FURTHER INLAND
TRACK...BUT WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET FOR WINTER WX...AS
STATED FRIDAYS SYSTEM COULD BE ICY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SATURDAY. THE
CABOOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS INLAND AS WELL AS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE NC/VA COAST SAT INTO
SUNDAY...AND HAS A TRACK INLAND OVER THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS IS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. IF THIS OCCURS
WILL BE A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO BEFORE ENDING WHILE THE
NORTHEAST GETS THE HEAVY SNOW. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND
TROUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME WIND AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER
ISSUES SUNDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM EST SUNDAY...

MOISTURE UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS SPREAD
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS INTO SOUTHEAST WV. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER TODAY WITH 3-5KFT VALUES EXPECTED KLYH/KDAN/KROA AND KBCB
BY 20Z/3PM.

TIMING IN THE MODELS OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT. EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN AROUND KLWB AND KBLF JUST AFTER
18Z/1PM...KBCB AROUND 00Z/7PM...AND KROA/KLYH/KDAN AFTER 04Z/11PM.
BY 12Z CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN AND FOG.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN NORTH OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION MAY
POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING NEAR KLWB. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE OF SLEET OR SNOW AT KLWB.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSISTENT TRENDS BRINGING MORE RAIN
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
THE GULF COAST TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
PROLONG THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS SUB VFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN IT DRIES OUT HEADING INTO
WED NIGHT-THU WITH VFR RETURNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 420 AM EST SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY. WITH THE
GROUND FROZEN SOLID...MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL WILL RUNOFF INTO AREA
RIVERS. AT THIS TIME MODERATE WITHIN BACK RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG
MAINSTEM RIVERS.

A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL AND THE
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...KM/WP
AVIATION...AMS/WERT
HYDROLOGY...AMS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 437 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM NEW YORK TO ARKANSAS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOWS PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG
THIS FRONT AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500MB TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET OVERNIGHT. MORE ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVE DOES NOT GET CLOSE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEGINNING OF
COOLING WILL ALSO BE LATE TONIGHT. ANY CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO
SLEET AND SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WOULD NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

DEEP MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. BETTER PUSH TO THE
EAST WILL BE OVERNIGHT. TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PAST FEW MODELS RUNS
BRINGING LEADING EDGE OF RAIN INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AROUND
12Z/7AM TODAY. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ALSO BRING THE RAIN INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN 11Z/6AM AND 14Z/9AM.

SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY INTO NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND HELP ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE INTO THE 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE BY
00Z/7PM TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY SURFACE DEW POINTS SURGE
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GFS AND LOCAL WRF ARE SHOWING AN
AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS FROM AROUND SMYTH/TAZEWELL COUNTIES INTO
ROCKBRIDGE AND AMHERST COUNTIES. COULD HAVE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN ALONG THIS AXIS BY MONDAY MORNING.

GFS BUFKIT WAS SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE BY 12Z
THAN THE NAM. APPEARS ANY MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET WOULD BE AFTER
09Z/4AM TONIGHT AND WOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
INTO BATH COUNTY VIRGINIA.

STARTING OFF RELATIVELY MILD THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...NOT FAR TO REACH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. VERY BROAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD
RESULTING FROM GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IN LOWER 200 MILLIBARS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA FROM
COUPLED JET MAXIMA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO END IN MOST AREAS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

SUFFICIENT COLD AIR MAY BE DRAWN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STORM TO ALLOW FOR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND AS FAR
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST WV...ADJACENT AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST VA...INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY OF VA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS
CONTINUE WITH RECENT TRENDS OF NOT SUPPORTING AN AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH
PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE STORM BEFORE THE
AREA LOSES THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE RUNNING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER. AS A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
MINIMAL...PERHAPS NO MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN GREENBRIWER COUNTY EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

WEATHER FOR LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
GOVERNED BY COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AS SURFACE RIDGE ON BACKSIDE OF STORM BUILDS EAST OF OUT THE OHIO
VALLEY...THEN SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS
AS COOL WEDGE IS ESTABLISHED.

NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MAKE A MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PASSING WEST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER/NEAR THE
DELMARVA AREA ON BAROCLINIC ZONE ON EAST SIDE OF COASTAL COOL WEDGE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA...MOST
NOTABLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER
ARRIVAL OF MAIN BODY OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS ON
TUESDAY SUCH THAT ANY GLAZING SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...AND
LOCALIZED TO THE AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF WARM AIR.

FORECAST THU NIGHT-SAT REMAINS COMPLICATED. HOWEVER...THE NEW 12Z
ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER INLAND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTING US FRI-SAT...WHICH TRENDS TOWARD THE
GEFS/ECWMF ENSEMBLE/CMC AND GFS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/CMC/GFS AND WPC.

FIRST...FRONT EXITS EAST GOING INTO WED EVENING WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SE WV...ALTHOUGH SFC FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC
PRETTY FAST AND THIS FAVORS A LIMITED THREAT.

LOOKING DRY HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH 1041 ECWMF/1047 GFS BUILDS ESE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST/WRN OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE THIS
OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAST AND SPLIT WITH SRN JET
SITUATED ACROSS SRN TX INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE NRN STREAM IS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FORECAST PROBLEMS ARISE LATE THU NIGHT-SAT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN INTO THE SW WITH A LIGHT QPF SHOWING UP IN THE
NC MTNS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS IS 10MB STRONG THAN THE ECMWF WHICH
SLOWS THINGS DOWN. HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDER TEMPS OF
THE GFS BUT EDGE PCPN INTO THE NC MTNS AS SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH STARTS TO WEDGE
SOUTHEAST...WHILE SFC FRONT AND LOW FORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS WILL BE
A PERIOD WHERE WILL WATCH PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE NE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND WHERE THE COLDER AIR STAYS
IN THE LOW LVLS WITH A WARM NOSE STARTING TO WORK IN FROM THE SW.
COULD BE A WINTRY MESS FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
CHANGEOVER TOWARD COLD RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR A MORE RAIN/SNOW THREAT...WITH SOME
ICE POTENTIAL.

THE MODELS THEN DRAG THE ROCKIES LOW AND UPPER SYSTEM INTO THE SRN
PLAINS HEADING INTO SAT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. STILL A WEDGE IS INDICATED OFF THE GFS WHILE THE
ECWMF BUMPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MORE OVER WRN VA/NC KEEPING IT
RAIN. GFS SHOWING RAIN AS WELL AS THICKNESSES WARM AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH STRONG SW FLOW...SO SATURDAY WILL BE WET WITH
MAYBE NRN CWA EXPERIENCING A WINTRY MIX.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...THERE IS A TREND TOWARD A WARMER/FURTHER INLAND
TRACK...BUT WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET FOR WINTER WX...AS
STATED FRIDAYS SYSTEM COULD BE ICY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SATURDAY. THE
CABOOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS INLAND AS WELL AS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE NC/VA COAST SAT INTO
SUNDAY...AND HAS A TRACK INLAND OVER THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS IS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. IF THIS OCCURS
WILL BE A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO BEFORE ENDING WHILE THE
NORTHEAST GETS THE HEAVY SNOW. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND
TROUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME WIND AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER
ISSUES SUNDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST SUNDAY...

SPLIT WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE BLACKSBURG TERMINAL FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
NC/SC COAST...SUPPORTING THE ADVECTION OF CLOUD DECK IN 2-4
THOUSAND FOOT RANGE AS FAR NORTH AS KDAN AND KLYH. THESE CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER INTO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LIKELY TO SPREAD
ANOTHER DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS IN 3-5 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN WV TERMINAL FORECAST SITES BY/AROUND 08Z/3AM...AND TO
SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE 13Z/9AM.

FURTHER NW...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM/BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS
SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. GIVEN THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT ONLY
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SE WITH THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...
WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL WELL AFT DAYBREAK.

WHEN THE PCPN ARRIVES...LOW- LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WELL ABOVE
THE CRITICAL 1310DM VALUE...SO ALL PCPN SHOULD BE LIQUID...NAMELY
-SHRA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY AFT 21Z/4PM ACROSS THE SE WV SITES...
AND NOT UNTIL AFTER THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ELSEWHERE.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO WORSEN TO MVFR TO IFR DUE TO
RESTRICTIONS TO BOTH CEILING AND VSBY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z/1AM MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION MAY POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
AND/OR SLEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING NORTH
OF A KBLF- KROA- KLYH LINE...WITH GREATEST THREAT CONFINED TO
AREAS NEAR KLWB.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL HOLD COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING CONSISTENT TRENDS BRINGING WINTER PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST
TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS SUB VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THEN IT DRIES OUT HEADING INTO WED NIGHT-THU WITH
VFR RETURNING. THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 420 AM EST SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY. WITH THE
GROUND FROZEN SOLID...MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL WILL RUNOFF INTO AREA
RIVERS. AT THIS TIME MODERATE WITHIN BACK RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG
MAINSTEM RIVERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL AND ITS
IMPACT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...KM/WP
AVIATION...KM/RAB/WERT/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 425 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM NEW YORK TO ARKANSAS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOWS PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG
THIS FRONT AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500MB TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL
BE UNDER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET OVERNIGHT. MORE ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVE DOES NOT GET CLOSE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEGINNING OF
COOLING WILL ALSO BE LATE TONIGHT. ANY CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO
SLEET AND SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WOULD NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

DEEP MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. BETTER PUSH TO THE
EAST WILL BE OVERNIGHT. TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PAST FEW MODELS RUNS
BRINGING LEADING EDGE OF RAIN INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AROUND
12Z/7AM TODAY. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ALSO BRING THE RAIN INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN 11Z/6AM AND 14Z/9AM.

SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY INTO NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND HELP ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE INTO THE 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE BY
00Z/7PM TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY SURFACE DEW POINTS SURGE
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GFS AND LOCAL WRF ARE SHOWING AN
AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS FROM AROUND SMYTH/TAZEWELL COUNTIES INTO
ROCKBRIDGE AND AMHERST COUNTIES. COULD HAVE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN ALONG THIS AXIS BY MONDAY MORNING.

GFS BUFKIT WAS SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE BY 12Z
THAN THE NAM. APPEARS ANY MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET WOULD BE AFTER
09Z/4AM TONIGHT AND WOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
INTO BATH COUNTY VIRGINIA.

STARTING OFF RELATIVELY MILD THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...NOT FAR TO REACH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...

MODEL SUITE DID TAKE A RATHER UNITED TURN TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION
FOR OUR AREA...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT`S CUSTOMARY FOR THESE
EVENTS TO SHIFT BACK SOUTH AND TURN COLDER AGAIN INSIDE 24
HOURS...SO DIDN`T TOTALLY BUY WHAT THE MODELS WERE SELLING.
HOWEVER...COULDN`T IGNORE THE WARMER TREND SO NUDGED GRIDS IN THAT
DIRECTION. DID PUSH MUCH OF THE IMPACTFUL FROZEN PCPN INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA. ALSO...AREAS ABOVE 3000 FEET IN CRAIG AND GILES COUNTY
MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE SOME FROZEN PCPN. SEEMS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE
TRYING TO MOVE INTO A WEDGE POSITION...WILL NOT MAKE IT IN TIME TO
LINE UP WITH THE MORE COPIOUS PCPN AMOUNTS...AND THIS OUTCOME
SEEMS TO HAPPEN OFTEN AROUND HERE. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A BIT OF SNOW OR FREEZING
RAIN JUST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...POSSIBLY INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT. ATTM...MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD
FALL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MID MORNING. IF CURRENT
FORECASTED STORM TRACK HOLDS...AND THATS STILL A SIGNIFICANT
IF...MOSTLY LOOKING AT A COLD RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
NAM/GFS AND SOME OF THE SREF SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS. ALSO THE
SREF PROBABILITIES ARE INSIGNIFICANT OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS
MENTIONED ABOVE...AS FAR AS FROZEN PCPN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH AROUND 0.75" POSSIBLE. IN WESTERN GREENBRIER AND THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH...THINKING A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A
WHILE MONDAY MORNING. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LEAVES AND COLDER AIR
SEEPS SOUTH...TEMPS MAY FALL TO 32F AND THERE`S A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE EARLY FOR AMOUNTS...BUT
THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME SLEET WOULD JUSTIFY AN ELEVATION
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH A WATCH
CONSIDERING THE WARMING TREND IN THE MODELS...WHICH IF IT
CONTINUES WILL CUT DOWN AMOUNTS EVEN FURTHER.

DEEPER WEDGE SETS IN MONDAY NIGHT...AND UPSLOPE FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS PATCH FREEZING RAIN
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN NW NC NEAR DAWN TUESDAY. COLD WEDGE HANGS
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THERE AGAIN COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
GREENBRIER AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE THE WARM SURGE SCOURS OUT THE SUBFREEZING BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF WARM AIR.

FORECAST THU NIGHT-SAT REMAINS COMPLICATED. HOWEVER...THE NEW 12Z
ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER INLAND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTING US FRI-SAT...WHICH TRENDS TOWARD THE
GEFS/ECWMF ENSEMBLE/CMC AND GFS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/CMC/GFS AND WPC.

FIRST...FRONT EXITS EAST GOING INTO WED EVENING WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SE WV...ALTHOUGH SFC FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC
PRETTY FAST AND THIS FAVORS A LIMITED THREAT.

LOOKING DRY HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH 1041 ECWMF/1047 GFS BUILDS ESE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST/WRN OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE THIS
OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAST AND SPLIT WITH SRN JET
SITUATED ACROSS SRN TX INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE NRN STREAM IS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FORECAST PROBLEMS ARISE LATE THU NIGHT-SAT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN INTO THE SW WITH A LIGHT QPF SHOWING UP IN THE
NC MTNS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS IS 10MB STRONG THAN THE ECMWF WHICH
SLOWS THINGS DOWN. HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDER TEMPS OF
THE GFS BUT EDGE PCPN INTO THE NC MTNS AS SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH STARTS TO WEDGE
SOUTHEAST...WHILE SFC FRONT AND LOW FORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS WILL BE
A PERIOD WHERE WILL WATCH PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE NE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND WHERE THE COLDER AIR STAYS
IN THE LOW LVLS WITH A WARM NOSE STARTING TO WORK IN FROM THE SW.
COULD BE A WINTRY MESS FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
CHANGEOVER TOWARD COLD RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR A MORE RAIN/SNOW THREAT...WITH SOME
ICE POTENTIAL.

THE MODELS THEN DRAG THE ROCKIES LOW AND UPPER SYSTEM INTO THE SRN
PLAINS HEADING INTO SAT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. STILL A WEDGE IS INDICATED OFF THE GFS WHILE THE
ECWMF BUMPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MORE OVER WRN VA/NC KEEPING IT
RAIN. GFS SHOWING RAIN AS WELL AS THICKNESSES WARM AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH STRONG SW FLOW...SO SATURDAY WILL BE WET WITH
MAYBE NRN CWA EXPERIENCING A WINTRY MIX.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...THERE IS A TREND TOWARD A WARMER/FURTHER INLAND
TRACK...BUT WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET FOR WINTER WX...AS
STATED FRIDAYS SYSTEM COULD BE ICY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SATURDAY. THE
CABOOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS INLAND AS WELL AS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENING OFF THE NC/VA COAST SAT INTO
SUNDAY...AND HAS A TRACK INLAND OVER THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS IS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. IF THIS OCCURS
WILL BE A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO BEFORE ENDING WHILE THE
NORTHEAST GETS THE HEAVY SNOW. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND
TROUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME WIND AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER
ISSUES SUNDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST SUNDAY...

SPLIT WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE BLACKSBURG TERMINAL FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
NC/SC COAST...SUPPORTING THE ADVECTION OF CLOUD DECK IN 2-4
THOUSAND FOOT RANGE AS FAR NORTH AS KDAN AND KLYH. THESE CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER INTO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LIKELY TO SPREAD
ANOTHER DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS IN 3-5 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN WV TERMINAL FORECAST SITES BY/AROUND 08Z/3AM...AND TO
SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE 13Z/9AM.

FURTHER NW...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM/BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS
SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. GIVEN THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT ONLY
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SE WITH THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...
WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL WELL AFT DAYBREAK.

WHEN THE PCPN ARRIVES...LOW- LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WELL ABOVE
THE CRITICAL 1310DM VALUE...SO ALL PCPN SHOULD BE LIQUID...NAMELY
-SHRA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY AFT 21Z/4PM ACROSS THE SE WV SITES...
AND NOT UNTIL AFTER THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ELSEWHERE.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO WORSEN TO MVFR TO IFR DUE TO
RESTRICTIONS TO BOTH CEILING AND VSBY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z/1AM MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION MAY POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
AND/OR SLEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING NORTH
OF A KBLF- KROA- KLYH LINE...WITH GREATEST THREAT CONFINED TO
AREAS NEAR KLWB.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL HOLD COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING CONSISTENT TRENDS BRINGING WINTER PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST
TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS SUB VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THEN IT DRIES OUT HEADING INTO WED NIGHT-THU WITH
VFR RETURNING. THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 420 AM EST SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY. WITH THE
GROUND FROZEN SOLID...MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL WILL RUNOFF INTO AREA
RIVERS. AT THIS TIME MODERATE WITHIN BACK RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG
MAINSTEM RIVERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL AND ITS
IMPACT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM/WP
AVIATION...KM/RAB/WERT/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 944 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

.UPDATE...FOR TNT...TEMPS ARE THE CHALLENGE WITH A THIN...HIGH
CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
LOCALES THAT HAVE DECOUPLED ARE SINGLE DIGITS AT THIS TIME WITH
OTHER LOCATIONS STILL IN THE TEENS. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER SINGLE
DIGIT TEMPS FOR LOWS TNT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AND THINK CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF JUST ENOUGH TO REACH
FORECAST.

LOOKING AT THE LATEST NAM AND PRIOR MODELS...DECIDED TO
DELAY ONSET OF SNOW UNTIL TUE EVENING. SRN WI REMAINS ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND
SNOW LINGERING FOR MUCH OF WED. WILL NOT COMMIT TO JUST THIS
MODEL BUT A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LES FROM MKE SOUTH TO THE
IL BORDER GIVEN A NELY FETCH FOR ABOUT 12 HRS AND COLD 850 MB
TEMPS. ADDED ANOTHER INCH TO THE LES AREA WITH STORM TOTAL UP TO 4
INCHES THERE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TUE AM AND AFTERNOON. SNOW
THEN INVADES FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SNOW TOTALS
FOR KMKE AND KENW. VSBYS OF 1-2 MILES EXPECTED AT KMSN AND KUES TUE
NT WITH THE LGT SNOW WHILE HEAVIER SNOW WILL LEAD TO 3/4-1 MILE
SNOW AT KMKE AND KENW TUE NT INTO WED AM. CIGS WILL DROP TO 1-2 KFT
FOR TUE EVENING INTO WED AM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING OVERCAST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SEEN ON RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LATER TONIGHT...LESS SO ON THE NAM AND GFS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO DROP
QUICKLY...BEFORE MORE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

WENT COOLER THAN THE CONSENSUS SHORT TERM MODELS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE. BROUGHT HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 20S TUESDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA.

KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTH...LOWER TO THE NORTH...WITH PUSH OF MODEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE AND STRONG Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATING BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH
COULD DELAY THE START TIME OF THE SNOW IN THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTHENING UPPER JET FROM
AROUND 185 KNOTS JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS RESULTS IN WEAK TO MODERATE UPWARD DURING THE EVENING...WITH
WEAK UPWARD MOTION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER DYNAMICS APPEARS TO BE THE REASON FOR THE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION OF THE MODELS SO FAR NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. THE
12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A LOW FROM ARKANSAS
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE REACHING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

GIVEN THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A WIDE
AREA OF MODERATE SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF LINGERING THE SNOW
LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

24 HOUR NAM QPF VALUES ARE AROUND 0.20 FROM LONE ROCK TO
SHEBOYGAN TO 0.32 OVER RACINE AND KENOSHA. THERE IS SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA AND ACROSS WALWORTH
COUNTY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IS AROUND HALF THE QPF FROM THE
NAM.

WITH RATHER HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 15 TO 1...
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY...AND ADVISORIES FOR SNOW
WOULD BE NEEDED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
CONSENSUS OF QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS.

THE SHORTWAVE REACHES A CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW THAT FLATTENS AND
WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

700 MB LAYERS DO NOT DRY MUCH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB LAYER
DOES. 950 MB RH IS RATHER HIGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
DUE TO A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL BY NOON AS THE 850 MB DRIESAND
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE 700 MB RH
DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
ANOTHER COLD PERIOD. WIND CHILLS MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY AND EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE 00Z ECMWF SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 06Z
DGEX IS SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

THE GFS/DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND DGEX ARE SLOWER BRINGING THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND NOW DO NOT CLOSE OFF
THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE 12Z GFS IS STILL THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WITH A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE THAT HAS A SECOND LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS TENNESSEE AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF HAS A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. THE 06Z
DGEX IN IN BETWEEN...BUT EVEN THE NORTHERN GFS ONLY BRUSHES THE
KENOSHA AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH OVERCAST CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN SPEED LATE IN THE DAY. ANY SNOW
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH PASSING
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING HIGH WAVES NEAR THE SHORE IN
ICE FREE AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 531 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

QUIET MID-WINTER WX WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE ACRS THE NRN HEMISPHERE WL BE
THE MASSIVE POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WL BE SLOWLY
RETROGRADING AWAY FM AK DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WL SPLIT AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE HIGH/RIDGE...THEN MERGE
BACK TOGETHER OVER NOAM. THE LCN OF THE FCST AREA WITHIN THE
CONFLUENT ZONE WHERE THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS MERGE BACK TOGETHER
WL RESULT IN FAIRLY TRANQUIL MID-WINTER WX FOR THE AREA.

PCPN SHOULD CONSIST OF JUST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT
TIMES AS THE FCST AREA GETS GRAZED BY THE TAIL OF NRN STREAM
SHRTWVS OR THE NRN FRINGE OF SRN STREAM CYCLONES. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WL BE RIDGING FM NW CANADA...SEWD...BENEATH THE UPR
CONFLUENT ZONE. THAT WL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IF THE MED RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPR
PATTERN...AND THEY ARE ALL SHOWING PRETTY MUCH THE SAME
TRENDS...WE WILL FINALLY GET THE NERN PAC UPR RIDGE SHIFTED FAR
ENOUGH W TO ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
BUT THAT PROBABLY WON/T HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA
IS SENDING A RATHER THICK LOOKING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...BAND OF LOW STRATUS
AND FLURRIES ARE MAKING A LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER NE MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE PINE TREE EFFECT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED 25 DEGREES AT
LAND O LAKES AND 22 DEGREES AT EAGLE RIVER. WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORECAST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND TEMPS AND
CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SAGS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TO
WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LITTLE TO ANY TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ALONG
THIS TROUGH AS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
BUT UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
JETSTREAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE SOLID
NATURE TO THEIR APPEARANCE...THINK A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TEMPS
THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS IS UNLIKELY. LOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA WERE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. SO WILL HAVE LOWS IN THAT
SIMILAR RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE BCALLBLEND.

TUESDAY...SUBTLE REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGER OVERHEAD
DURING THE MORNING. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS PROJECTED TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH. NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SUN AS SOME OF THE
MID AND UPPER MOISTURE PEELS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS
COOL OFF SOME BEHIND THE FRONT OVER N-C WISCONSIN...SO WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS THERE...AND THE LOWER 20S OVER
E-C WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

COLD BUT QUIET PATTERN WL CONTINUE. THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA
COULD GET GRAZED BY THE SNOW SHIELD FM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUE NGT INTO WED. THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN STILL IN
DOUBT...SO DIDN/T TAKE POPS BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. EVEN IF PCPN
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA...PROBABLY WOULD NOT GET MORE THAN A
DUSTING. SITN WOULD NORMALLY BE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE-
EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT WITH THE LAKE PROBABLY OVER 50 PCT
ICE COVERED...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THE LAKE-EFFECT WOULD AMOUNT TO
ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES OR SCT LGT SHSN. THE NEXT SRN
STREAM SYSTEM WON/T HEAD EWD FM THE PLAINS UNTIL THE WEEKEND...
AND IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE TUE NGT SYSTEM.

TEMPS WL PROBABLY AVERAGE 10-18 F DEG BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FM NORMAL...BUT IT PROBABLY WON/T
SEEM EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AFTER WHAT WE HAD LAST MONTH. ALSO...WE/VE
NOW GAINED BACK ABOUT 6 WEEKS WORTH OF SUN ANGLE...AND WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THAT ON MAX TEMPS DURING THE DAY.
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN ARE UP IN VILAS
COUNTY...DESPITE THE FACT THAT THEY FELL TO 20 BELOW TO 25 BELOW
ZERO THIS MORNING. STRANGE THOUGH IT MAY SEEM...THIS IS ACTUALLY A
SIGN WE ARE HEADING TOWARD SPRING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH FLOW OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...WILL KEEP A BKN TO OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK OVER THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEARING EXPECTED LATE IN
THE PERIOD OVER THE NORTH.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1052 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

CONTINUED COLD WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AT TIMES.

THE FLOW ENTERING NOAM HAS BECOME SPLIT...WITH NRN STREAM
DIVERTING ARND STG RIDGE OVER AK AND SRN STREAM UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE AND FLOWING INTO CA/NRN MEXICO. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROF
EXTENDED FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE DESERT W. THE STREAMS REMAINED
SEPARATE AS THE ENTERED THE TROF POSN...THEN MERGED BACK TOGETHER
INTO A STG BROAD SWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FM THE TROF AXIS...FM THE
SRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. CHGS TO THE PATTERN DURING THE FCST
PERIOD WL BE SML...WITH PERHAPS THE EXTENSION OF THE TROF IN THE
SWRN CONUS RETROGRADING A LITTLE AND THE SRN STREAM STRENGTHENING
A BIT.

NLY UPR FLOW ACRS WRN CANADA DOWNSTREAM FM THE AK UPR RIDGE WL
ALLOW A COLD ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE TO RIDGE SWD TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN A CONTINUOUS FEED OF COLD AIR INTO THE FCST
AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN ABOUT 10-18F DEG BLO NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD. THOUGH THE COLD WON/T BE AS SEVERE AS SOME OF THE PERIODS
IN JANUARY...IT MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE PERSISTENT AS LESS
ROLLERCOASTERING OF TEMPS IS EXPECTED. THE FCST AREA IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELDS FM SRN STREAM
SYSTEMS...WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE PASSING BY TO OUR S.
SO...PCPN AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP BLO NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A REINFORCING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.  LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RECENT UPTICK IN INTENSITY
POSSIBLY SUGGESTS SUPPORT FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.  STILL THINKING THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART BY
THE START OF THE EVENING.  CLEARING IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN THE
SMALL COMMA HEAD OVER NE MINNESOTA WILL LIKELY BRUSH N-C WISCONSIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.   SNOW TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE EXITED BY THE START OF THE EVENING.  MEANWHILE
A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  SOME CLEARING OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS SHOULD ARRIVE INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.  BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN SO KEPT A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING.  COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT AND WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR
DECOUPLING.  COMBINED WITH UNCERTAINTIES WITH CLOUD COVER...THIS
MAKES FOR ANOTHER DIFFICULT TEMP FORECAST.  LIKE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WILL SHOW COLDER TEMPS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING WILL OCCUR.  BUT IF WINDS DROP OFF...TEMPS
COULD TANK LIKE LAST NIGHT.  WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS
ACROSS THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LAST.  WIND CHILLS MAY STILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT ASSUMING WINDS DO NOT BECOME CALM.

SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ORIGINATING FROM AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
PROVIDE A COLD BUT QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PRESENT.  WENT WITH A COMBO OF ECMWF GUIDANCE AND
ALLBLEND FOR HIGHS...WHICH WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO.  THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR THIS DATE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

WITH LITTLE CHG TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ANTICIPATED...LAST
NIGHT WAS A GOOD INDICATOR OF THE PITFALLS OF THE NIGHTTIME TEMP
FCSTS. SINCE THE CORE OF THE COLD WL REMAIN TO OUR NW...TEMPS WL
DEPEND ON CLDS AND WINDS. ONCE THE CLDS DISSIPATED AND WIND WENT
CALM LAST NGT...TEMPS ABSOLUTELY TANKED AND ENDED UP NEARLY AS
COLD AS LAST WEEK WHEN THE CORE OF THE COLD WAS DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. /OF COURSE...WINDS AND HENCE WIND CHILLS WERE NOT NEARLY AS
LOW THIS TIME ARND./ TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A BIT AT TIMES WHEN IT
LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE CLR PERIODS AT NGT. OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO BLEND OF TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE.

PRECIP-WISE...THE M.O. OF THE PAST COUPLE SYSTEMS HAS BEEN FOR
EACH TO LOOK LIKE A BETTER PCPN PRODUCER THAN IT/S PREDECESSOR
WHEN VIEWED FM A FEW DAYS OUT...ONLY TO END UP WITH A SWD SHIFT IN
THE PCPN ON THE MODEL RUNS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. DESPITE SOME
EARLY MODEL RUNS INDICATING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW TDA IN E-C
WI...WE ARE ENDING UP WITH PRETTY MUCH A NUISANCE EVENT. NOW THE
TUE-WED SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER S AS
WELL...WITH THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING LIKE A BETTER PCPN
PRODUCER. HAVE TO WONDER IF LATER EVENTS WILL END UP PRIMARILY
BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE S AS WELL. AS SUCH...USED NOTHING MORE
THAN CHC POPS IN THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. STILL SOME BKN MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
OF THIS AREA AFTER 09Z FOLLOWED BY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ESB








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 1141 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. A ZONALLY ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES INTO MINNESOTA WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY AS THE COL
BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS TRANSECTS THE STATE. THESE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A WEDGE OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS REFLECTED IN THE 12Z/18Z NAM AND 18Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA.

THE LATEST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
WINTER STORM TOMORROW MORNING BY ABOUT 4-6 HOURS...WHICH ISN`T
SURPRISING GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AS
IT MOVED INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA LAST NIGHT. THE 300 MB WAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AFTER 06Z AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...BUT DISJOINTED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AS IT
REACHES THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT 12Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOISTURE ALREADY POOLING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA AFTER
06Z.

PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RIBBON OF 800-850
MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR HAS GREATLY BACKED OFF ON THE OVERNIGHT QPF...MOSTLY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER. IN
FACT...THE QPF THAT IS BEING GENERATED BY THE NAM MAY JUST BE AN
ARTIFACT OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND COULD VANISH BY THE 00Z RUN.
THE GFS 280K ANALYSIS ALSO AGREES WITH THIS THINKING. DESPITE
SHARP ASCENT FROM 880 TO 800 MB OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA...MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED WITH CDEFS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 50 TO 150 MB.

THUS...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REVOLVED
AROUND WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT OVER THE
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PLUME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE NAM IN BACKING
OFF ON POPS SUBSTANTIALLY...AND THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

THE WINTER STORM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS AN INTERESTING
STORM ON MANY LEVELS.  IT WILL BRING WITH IT SEVERAL ELEMENTS OF A
WINTER STORM...SNOW THEN WIND FOLLOWED BY BITER COLD.  LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE ONGOING FROM A WEAK WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT.  THERE
ARE SOME QUESTIONS REMAINING FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS TO HOW QUICKLY
WE CAN SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE AND HOW FAR SOUTH THAT WILL OCCUR.
THERE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH
18Z OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...NEAR THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHILE DECENT FORCING LIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  AFTER SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF A BREAK...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM.
ONE CONCERN IS THAT MOST OF THE FORCING THAT OCCURS HAPPENS ABOVE
THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND WE STILL HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH SATURATION AT
18Z.  BY 21Z THOUGH WE SATURATE TO AT LEAST 700 MB AND SOME FORCING
DOES MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.  THE BEST AREA TO SEE THIS
IS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES.  AS YOU GO TOWARDS THE I-80
CORRIDOR THE FORCING IS NOT AS GOOD FOR AS LONG A PERIOD OF TIME
BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL MOVE FROM
ABOUT 14 TO 1 CLOSER TO 18 OR 19 TO 1.  THIS WILL HELP GIVE HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE SNOW SHOULD BE FLUFFY AND EASILY BLOWN
AROUND.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE WIND WITH IT BUT AGAIN THE WIND WILL NOT
BE EXTREMELY STRONG NOR WILL IT BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST
SNOWFALL. SO WHILE NOT A PERFECT SITUATION IT SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS TRAVEL... ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTH. UP
TOWARDS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CONDITIONS ARE STILL GOOD BUT NOT AS GOOD
AS FURTHER SOUTH.  WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM AND BY
THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 INCHES ON THE GROUND.  SINCE TRAVEL
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AS IT WILL HAPPEN
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE I HAVE PUT THE WINTER STORM WARNING UP TO
THE I-80 CORRIDOR.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE TO SEE IF SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS PAN OUT BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND DURING THE DRIVE
HOME WARRANTING THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL BUT WILL STILL SEE
BRISK WINDS AND COLD TEMPS.  IN FACT WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH
WIND CHILL ISSUES BEYOND THE WINTER STORM.  I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 20 AND HIGHWAY 30.
THESE AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND
COMBINED WITH SOME WIND I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL
ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...MID WEEK WILL BE BITTER COLD WITH SUB ZERO LOWS AND
SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS.  BY FRIDAY A STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
TEMPERATURES...WHILE STILL COLD...WILL MODERATE INTO THE TEENS.
NONE OF THE MODELS NOW MATURE THIS INTO A CLOSED LOW BUT THEY STILL
VARY ON THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE AND THUS TIMING ISSUES ARISE AS
THE MORE DIGGING THAT OCCURS THE SLOWER THE WAVE LIFTS OUT.  THE GFS
IS STILL THE MOST BULLISH IN BRINGING PRECIP THIS FAR NORTH WHILE
THE EURO KEEP IT FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW I KEEP THE CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

-SN BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
WESTERN SITES KFOD/KDSM NEAR 12Z...BEFORE LIFTING INTO OTHER SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR OR IFR WITH
-SN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN -SN FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO LIFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH LATE IN PERIOD AND WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z. WINDS AND SN
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MVFR OR IFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ADAIR-CASS-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-POLK-
POWESHIEK-WARREN.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-MARSHALL-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MONROE-RINGGOLD-
TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 951 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

CURRENTLY FINISHING AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST. MODELS AND CURRENT
WSR-88D RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE INDICATING A SLOWING IN
THE SNOW ARRIVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE FIRST REPORT OF
SNOW HAS BEEN IN TRINIDAD...COLORADO UNDER THE STRONGER
REFLECTIVITIES ON THE WSR-88D RADAR IN PUEBLO...COLORADO. HAVE
REWORKED THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS SLOWING BUT
MAINTAINED THE MENTIONS OF HEAVY TO MODERATE SNOW ONCE THE HEAVY
BAND REACHES THE REGION. MODERATE SNOW WAS REPORTED IN TRINIDAD SO
THINKING FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL ON. ALSO...WINDS HAVE SEEMED TO
COME DOWN A LITTLE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW. THIS WOULD
REDUCE THE THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW
PROBLEMS IS LOWER. UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE STILL LIKELY DUE TO THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES SO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD STILL BECOME A PROBLEM. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE COOL SPOT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHERE CLOUDS CLEARED OUT EARLIER. DID NOT ADJUST QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...ONE CONCERN
WITH LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WOULD THUS LOWER
AMOUNTS BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE WARNED AREA. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH
JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SW FLOW ADVECTING PLUME OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN US BORDER.

WINTER STORM ON TRACK TO IMPACT OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER
FOR SW PART OF THE CWA...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...AS TROUGH OVER WESTERN US ROUNDS THE BASE ON THE
ROCKIES IT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TWO COLD FRONTS
DROPPING SOUTH. THE FIRST WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
INITIALLY SNOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TIED TO LOBE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER SW COLORADO...WHICH WILL SHIFT NORTH AS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTH OVER KANSAS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
INSTABILITY IN THE SATURATED LAYER IN SNOW BAND THAT FORMS OVER
COLORADO...WHICH COULD SUPPORT MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATES ACROSS THE SW
PART OF OUR CWA. A CLOSED H7 LOW WILL FORM OVER KANSAS AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INDICATION OF A DEFORMATION BAND
FORMING ALONG THIS 700MB LOW...WITH DIFFERENCES IN ORIENTATION. THIS
DEFORMATION BAND WOULD BE THE MAIN SNOW PRODUCER FOR EASTERN
LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE
INITIAL BAND OVER COLORADO SHOULD WEAKEN AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS EAST...WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW OVERSPREADING
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEAKENING TREND...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE BAND IN SW COLORADO MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NORTH (CURRENTLY INDICATED BY 12Z NAM). IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR WE
WOULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA FURTHER NORTH IN THE CWA. AS IT STANDS
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE LOCATIONS
IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE BAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WOULD SEE 6-8
INCHES TOTAL...AND THIS IS WHERE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

IN ADDITION TO SNOW...BLOWING SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WE MAY NOT SEE THE HIGHEST
WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EAST...THOUGH WE COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA WITH AT LEAST
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...BUT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. AS THE SNOW ENDS ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
BRUTAL...ONE OF THE COLDEST STRETCHES IN RECENT MEMORY. WIND
CHILL WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EVERY DAY.
SOME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE SET...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND SKIES
CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND 15 BELOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
ZERO. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES. FINALLY START TO SEE SOME RIDGING ALOFT
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING NEXT MONDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 939 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR TAFS HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. STILL
CONCERNED WITH LOW CEILINGS...VISIBILITY...AND SNOW/BLOWING SNOW.
FOR 06Z TAFS...PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE SNOWFALL SINCE THE
STORM IS MOVING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LOOKING UPSTREAM
AT THE WINTER STORM...CURRENT METARS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAVE JUST
REPORTED SNOW OVER THE PAST HOUR. ALSO INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND LOWERED CEILINGS AT KGLD TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW
CLOUDS AND HAZE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BLOWING SNOW IS STIL
AN ISSUE FOR KGLD TOMORROW AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS...RESULTING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO LIFR. KMCK SHOULD STAY SUSTAINED
AROUND 16 KTS...BUT LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY THERE AS WELL. NEW GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM SUGGEST THE EVENT
SHOULD END AROUND 02/03Z TOMORROW...SO HAVE VISIBILITY INCREASING
AND CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR AT THIS TIME. GIVEN HOW THE MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM SINCE EARLIER...AMMENDMENTS
WILL BE MADE TO ACCOMODATE CHANGES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     KSZ027-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 905 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

CURRENTLY FINISHING AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST. MODELS AND CURRENT
WSR-88D RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE INDICATING A SLOWING IN
THE SNOW ARRIVING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE FIRST REPORT OF
SNOW HAS BEEN IN TRINIDAD...COLORADO UNDER THE STRONGER
REFLECTIVITIES ON THE WSR-88D RADAR IN PUEBLO...COLORADO. HAVE
REWORKED THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS SLOWING BUT
MAINTAINED THE MENTIONS OF HEAVY TO MODERATE SNOW ONCE THE HEAVY
BAND REACHES THE REGION. MODERATE SNOW WAS REPORTED IN TRINIDAD SO
THINKING FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL ON. ALSO...WINDS HAVE SEEMED TO
COME DOWN A LITTLE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW. THIS WOULD
REDUCE THE THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW
PROBLEMS IS LOWER. UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE STILL LIKELY DUE TO THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES SO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD STILL BECOME A PROBLEM. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE COOL SPOT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHERE CLOUDS CLEARED OUT EARLIER. DID NOT ADJUST QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...ONE CONCERN
WITH LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WOULD THUS LOWER
AMOUNTS BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE WARNED AREA. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH
JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SW FLOW ADVECTING PLUME OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN US BORDER.

WINTER STORM ON TRACK TO IMPACT OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER
FOR SW PART OF THE CWA...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...AS TROUGH OVER WESTERN US ROUNDS THE BASE ON THE
ROCKIES IT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TWO COLD FRONTS
DROPPING SOUTH. THE FIRST WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
INITIALLY SNOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TIED TO LOBE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER SW COLORADO...WHICH WILL SHIFT NORTH AS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTH OVER KANSAS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
INSTABILITY IN THE SATURATED LAYER IN SNOW BAND THAT FORMS OVER
COLORADO...WHICH COULD SUPPORT MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATES ACROSS THE SW
PART OF OUR CWA. A CLOSED H7 LOW WILL FORM OVER KANSAS AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INDICATION OF A DEFORMATION BAND
FORMING ALONG THIS 700MB LOW...WITH DIFFERENCES IN ORIENTATION. THIS
DEFORMATION BAND WOULD BE THE MAIN SNOW PRODUCER FOR EASTERN
LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE
INITIAL BAND OVER COLORADO SHOULD WEAKEN AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS EAST...WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTATED AREA OF SNOW OVERSPREADING
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEAKENING TREND...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE BAND IN SW COLORADO MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NORTH (CURRENTLY INDICATED BY 12Z NAM). IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR WE
WOULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA FURTHER NORTH IN THE CWA. AS IT STANDS
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE LOCATIONS
IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE BAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WOULD SEE 6-8
INCHES TOTAL...AND THIS IS WHERE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

IN ADDITION TO SNOW...BLOWING SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WE MAY NOT SEE THE HIGHEST
WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EAST...THOUGH WE COULD SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA WITH AT LEAST
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...BUT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. AS THE SNOW ENDS ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
BRUTAL...ONE OF THE COLDEST STRETCHES IN RECENT MEMORY. WIND
CHILL WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EVERY DAY.
SOME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE SET...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND SKIES
CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND 15 BELOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
ZERO. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES. FINALLY START TO SEE SOME RIDGING ALOFT
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING NEXT MONDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 423 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS WILL BE LOW CEILINGS...LOW VISIBILITY...AND
SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE TOMORROW. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OVER KMCK WITH KGLD BECOMING MVFR AROUND
03Z. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIFT
IN PLACE...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN FOR KGLD AROUND 06Z AND KMCK AROUND
08Z. GFS GUIDANCE FOR KMCK HAD SNOWFALL STARTING SLIGHTLY LATER
THAN 08Z...SO WILL MONITOR HOW THAT SITUATION DEVELOPS. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS...VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY MID-MORNING...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15
TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
START AT KGLD AND KMCK AROUND 15Z. VISIBILITY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW COULD DROP TO 1/2SM WITH THE BLOWING SNOW. GFS GUIDANCE
HAD VISIBILITY AT 1/2SM...BUT VLIFR COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AS VISIBILITY COULD GO AS LOW AT 1/4SM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     KSZ027-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 502 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO
MANITOBA AND SRN SASK AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTING IN WSW
MID/UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...WEAK NW TO N FLOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY INTO ERN UPPER MI AND CNTRL WI.
TO THE WEST...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
THERE WAS ENOUGH TO MOISTURE BELOW THE 4K FT INVERSION FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN ONTARIO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN UPPER MI. WITH 850
MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C...RADAR INDICATED SOME LIGHT LES FROM
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING WHERE GAPS IN THE ICE COVER WERE PRESENT.

TODAY...SINCE A WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ANY ADDITIONAL LES IS EXPECTED WILL BE
DISORGANIZED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INTO THE NE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE LARGER REMAINING AREA OF OPEN WATER. SOME
FLURRIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING
DOWNWIND OF ANOTHER LIMITED STRETCH OF OPEN WATER.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND ACYC NRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN ONTARIO AND A LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. EVEN WITH LIMITED HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE MOSTLY
ICE COVERED LAKE...SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OR
MUNISING WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST
WITH READINGS FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. OVER THE WEST...TEMPS COULD
STILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -10 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN POSSIBLY SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE
MOST PART...RAN WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHICH
LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST FOR PRECIP. WHILE STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP MAY BE ON WED AS SOME HIGHER RES MODELS
INDICATE NNW LES OVER ERN ALGER AND NRN LUCE COUNTIES FROM THE MORE
OPEN WATERS OF FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT NOT SURE EXACTLY WHAT THE
EXTENT AND LOCATION OF THE BEST LES MAY BE. ALSO...WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS A RESULT OF INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR OVER NWRN UPPER MI. A SLOW AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

WITH A CHILLY UPSLOPE NW FLOW OF COLD AIR CONTINUING...EXPECT
PREDOMINANT HI END MVFR TO VFR CIGS TO DOMINATE CMX AND IWD THRU
MUCH OF THIS FCST PERIOD. BEST CHC FOR MORE SUSTAINED LOWER
CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD RESULT IN
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THERE. LATER TODAY...A WSHFT TOWARD THE N
IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS MAY BRING
THE MVFR CIGS INTO IWD/SAW...WHERE THIS WIND WL PRESENT AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT. WITH SOME DRYING AND A LESS FVRBL WIND...EXPECT VFR WX TO
PREVAIL AT CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUEPRIOR AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND WHEN A LOW MOVES THROUGH HUDSON BAY...COULD SEE WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 30KTS ON THURSDAY. WITH MUCH OF THE LAKE ICE
COVERED...SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CONCERN FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A
POCKET OF OPEN WATER NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND MARAIS MICHIGAN WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 917 PM MST MON FEB 3 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TONIGHT TO LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASE
BLOWING SNOW COVERAGE.

SNOW TOTALS FROM TODAY WERE MAINLY AROUND AN INCH WITH A FEW 2
INCH TYPE REPORTS THROWN IN. HOWEVER BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
MADE ACCURATE MEASUREMENTS DIFFICULT AND THERE WERE MANY REPORTS
OF SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING SNOW. WE HAD 0.9 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT
THE OFFICE AS OF 6 PM...AND 0.6 AT THE BILLINGS AIRPORT AS OF 4
PM.

LATEST NAM AND RAP ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT DECREASE IN LIFT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. BOTH MODELS SEEM TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL SO HAVE TRENDED FORECAST
SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS TOMORROW AS
DENDRITIC GROWTH DECREASES ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT.
UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN A MORE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MANNER WHICH IS WHY LIFT IS WEAKER. QG FORCING REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TOMORROW WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE BELOW ZERO BY MORNING. PRESSURE
TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DRIFTING SNOW MAY BE MORE OF A PROBLEM
THAN THE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING SNOW IN RURAL AREAS.
HAVE REPORTS OF DRIFTS SEVERAL FEET DEEP IN SOME AREAS. FOR
TRAVELERS...VEHICLES ARE BLOWING SNOW AROUND CAUSING VERY POOR
VISIBILITY ON HIGHWAYS THIS EVENING SO EXTRA CAUTION IS NEEDED
PASSING AND BEING PASSED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BY LARGER TRUCKS.
WIND CHILLS ALREADY APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS IN MANY AREAS THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD DROP TO UNDER 20 BELOW ZERO BEFORE SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING HIGHLITES
WILL BE TO ADJUST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SOME AREAS...ADD ROSEBUD...TREASURE AND POWDER RIVER TO THE
ADVISORY AND ADD A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR FALLON...CUSTER AND
CARTER COUNTIES. ALSO EMPHASIZED BLOWING SNOW IN AREAS FROM
BILLINGS W AND SW...AS WELL AS ADDED WIND CHILL WORDING TO MOST
SEGMENTS OF THE ADVISORY.

SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ROTATING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SE TONIGHT
THROUGH ID. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO THE
AREA WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS WELL WHILE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS MOVES OUT OF THE SW
PART OF REGION. UPSLOPE FLOW UP TO 7000 FEET WAS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SHOWED OMEGA AND GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THE ABOVE FACTORS
SUPPORTED RAISING SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE STRONG LIFT COULD PRODUCE WARNING SNOW
AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...HAD UP TO 10 INCHES IN THIS AREA.

GUSTY WINDS WERE OCCURRING FROM KBIL TO KLVM THIS AFTERNOON
CREATING BLOWING SNOW. THE WINDS WERE CAUSED BY A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
ID. HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE SW PART OF THE AREA FROM KBIL
SW AND ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH WIND OVER THE AREA TO SUPPORT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW ZERO. THUS ADDED THE
WIND CHILLS TO MOST SEGMENTS OF THE ADVISORY.

ON TUE...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER WY AND DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
BE MUCH LESS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE -20S C. LIGHT
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW ZERO AND THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM KBIL W AND SW DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
IN THIS REGION. WIND CHILLS WILL BE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
AREA.

FORCING WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT UNDER A COLD W TO E
ORIENTED TROUGH. QPF WILL TAPER OFF FROM N TO S OVER THE AREA...SO
CONTINUED THE LOWER POPS. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -20S
C...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME MORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE
NIGHT AS THE 1056 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE ENDING
TIMES ON TUE NIGHT FOR THE ADVISORIES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. ARTHUR


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS PROGG 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND AN
OVERNIGHT LOW NEAR 20 BELOW ZERO. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR BILLINGS AND LIVINGSTON. A VERY SLOW WARNING TREND
WILL BEGIN OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BUT BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS SC/SE MT.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. GFS/ECMWF
CARVE OUT A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES BUT KEEP
ENERGY MOVING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR AND OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS. AREA
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. HOOLEY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 904/902 915/904 919/002 913/011 903/018 003/027 014/033
    ++/S    50/I    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/B    00/B
LVM 905/903 920/903 920/004 910/014 902/020 008/026 019/034
    ++/S    52/J    10/B    01/B    11/U    11/N    11/B
HDN 903/000 914/903 919/002 913/009 905/016 901/028 009/034
    ++/S    50/I    00/B    00/B    01/B    00/B    00/B
MLS 905/901 914/901 916/004 914/010 906/017 903/022 004/027
    +8/S    20/I    00/U    00/B    12/J    11/B    10/B
4BQ 904/000 915/901 918/005 913/014 904/020 901/022 008/030
    ++/S    40/I    00/B    01/B    12/J    00/B    00/B
BHK 907/902 916/903 915/005 912/011 904/018 902/020 003/025
    +7/S    20/I    00/B    01/B    22/J    10/B    00/B
SHR 903/901 916/904 918/004 912/014 904/019 003/025 013/033
    ++/S    61/I    00/B    01/U    00/B    00/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 28-29-42-63.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TUESDAY
      NIGHT FOR ZONES 30-31-34>36-38>41-56>58-64>66.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TUESDAY
      NIGHT FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 454 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE GET RID OF ONE MESSY SYSTEM 24 HOURS AGO...AND STILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH ITS AFTER EFFECTS FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL FROM
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT...IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION OFF THE SURFACE. NEVER A GOOD COMBINATION.

FIRST...LOW LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A SHARP CUT OFF MAINLY JUST
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS HAS WREAKED HAVOC WITH THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS AREAS IN THE CLEAR...SUCH AS ATHENS...BOTTOMED OUT UNDER
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DROPPED INTO THE LOWER
TEENS...WHILE UNDER THE STRATUS...IT COULD NOT DROP OUT OF THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS ALSO ENVELOPED THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH
BKW IN THEM MOST OF THE NIGHT. RAP SUGGESTING THIS WILL BE NOT BE IN
A HURRY TO EXIT TODAY...AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE LAST
EVENING...WILL LIKELY NEED TO PUSH THE ENDING TIME OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER INTO THE DAY AS THE MODELS TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHAT
TO DO WITH THIS MOISTURE. IN TERMS OF SKY COVERAGE...THERE WILL
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE HOWEVER...AS WE ARE ALREADY SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND SHOULD BE OVERCAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...AND HAVE KEPT THE TIMING AHEAD OF THE
MODELS AS IS COMMON WITH THESE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ORIGINATING
STORMS. NOW COMES THE FUN OF DETERMINING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MOS GUIDANCE FROM ANY MODEL WAS LARGELY USELESS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...AND FELT THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...SNOW  PACK AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STIFF ARM
THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO EVENTUALLY SCOUR
OUT THE COOL AIR. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND INTO THE
PLEASANTS AND TYLER COUNTY AREAS...AS WELL AS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. WILL ALSO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF THE WET BULB EFFECT ALOFT AT
THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL NOT HELP MATTERS IN TERMS
OF GETTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. RUNNING THE WEATHER
PROCEDURE USING MODEL ALOFT TEMPERATURES AND THE SURFACE...BASICALLY
IN A TOP DOWN METHOD...PRODUCED MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND JUST ACROSS THE RIVER OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
THIS WAS THE REASON FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. PERRY COUNTY
WAS AN EASY CALL FOR THE UPGRADE TO A WARNING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW ON TOP OF THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.

PER USUAL...WE ARE ON THE GRADIENT. IMAGINE THAT. SO IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT ANY MISSES REGARDING THE TEMPERATURES COULD HAVE HUGE
IMPACT ON THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW LINES AND TIMINGS...AS
WAS THE STRUGGLE LAST NIGHT AS THE SUB FREEZING AIR TRIED MIGHTILY
TO SINK SOUTHWARD. HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
OTHER COUNTIES IN THE MIXED PRECIPITATION. WANTED TO GIVE THE DAY
SHIFT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE SOME MUCH NEEDED FLEXIBILITY FOR SOME LATE
CHANGES TO THESE HEADLINES AS FAR AS EXPANSIONS OR UPGRADES DUE TO A
SOMEWHAT MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

NOW IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THE FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN PLACE.
THERE IS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER CWA WIDE THAT EITHER FELL AS RAIN OR
IS STORED IN SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. WITH A SATURATED
GROUND THAT MAY BE PARTIALLY FROZEN IN AREAS...RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN
THAT WILL FALL OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WILL TEST THE AREA
STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS AS ANOTHER 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FACT THAT THIS RAIN WILL FALL
BASIN WIDE IS THE OTHER TROUBLING PART OF THIS EQUATION. IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF A CONFLICT WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE SLEET AND SNOW ARE A
POSSIBILITY...BUT FEEL THIS FLOOD WATCH IS STILL WELL SERVED IN
THESE PARTS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...A SHARP DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW...SO
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF SOUTHEAST OHIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

NOT DONE YET.

SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW MAKES LIFE DIFFICULT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
CWA. STILL WATCHING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT 925MB WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOW COLD AIR DAMMING THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE.
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW PROMISES TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING...AND WITH THE WARM PUNCH ALOFT IN RAIN...FREEZING RAIN IS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR THE
GREENBRIER AND CHEAT RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS TEMPERATURES WERE NOT AS
BULLISH ON THE COLD BIAS THAT APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLUTION AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THUS...FEAR THAT THE OUTPUT FROM USING THE
WEATHER PROCEDURE WAS MODEST FREEZING RAIN RELEGATED TO THE FAR
EASTERN FRINGES OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. NO HEADLINE YET
HERE. WILL LOOK OVER THIS ONE MORE TIME BEFORE LEAVING FOR THE
NIGHT...BUT HOPING THE NEXT MODEL RUN IS MORE HELPFUL IN THE
TEMPERATURES OUT THAT WAY THAN IT WAS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

THINK THAT IS IT. MY BRAIN IS SHOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STORM SYSTEM IS PULLING OUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXCEPT
FOR THE NAM...OTHER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER TIMING
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FRONT AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE I79 CORRIDOR...WITH CAT POPS IN RAIN
PRECEDING THE FRONT. FRONT WITH THE ORGANIZED RAIN EXITS MOUNTAINS
BY 18Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS HAVE A TYPICAL DRY SLOT FOR THIS
UPPER PATTERN...THIS BEING A STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS...WE HAVE A SLOT OF NO
POPS FOR A TIME BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT BEFORE THE REAL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND GOOD COLD ADVECTION IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
FALLING DURING THE DAY...THE PATTERN IS NOT REALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
POST FRONTAL AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS THAT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A DISTINCTIVE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE
TO THE FLOW...AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE. THUS...WE
WILL CONFINE ANY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THESE WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN THROUGH THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER
SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...BUT MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S. MODERATING TEMPS FRIDAY UNDER SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HARD TO FIGURE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB.  ONLY POPS
WERE SOME TOKEN 20 PERCENTS FOR THE MOST PART.  SO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FIGURED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN BULK OF PCPN FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW.  SEEMS THE HIGHER
PCPN TOTALS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE TO OUR EAST...TOWARD THE COAST.

STILL LEFT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.  INITIAL SET UP ON SATURDAY HAS
MOISTURE MAX OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ANOTHER IN THE MIDWEST.  RATHER
FRAGMENTED LEADING INTO THE MAIN EVENT.

COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE RAP MODEL WHICH HOLDS THE IFR MOISTURE THROUGH
12Z FOR THE MOST PART...DEPENDING ON TERMINAL. PKB WILL LIKELY BE
THE FIRST TO ESCAPE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 15Z AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN
SETTLES IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AND WILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY...CEILINGS FIRST AND THEN VISIBILITIES AS THE LOWEST
LEVELS SATURATE.

BKW TO STAY IN THE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING COULD VARY. TIMING OF IFR
WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 02/04/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE
AWARE OF THE PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...26

EQUIPMENT...









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1246 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH TONIGHT. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...
KEPT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER THIS
DECK LIFTS...OVERCAST REMAINS WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK IS BEING OVERLY PERSISTENT THIS EVENING. WHEN FLOW
SWITCHES AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...THINK THAT
DOWNSLOPING WILL ERODE THE DECK WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SOLUTION FOR THE
BIG WX SYSTEM MIDWEEK. SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER THE
AREA...MOST LIKELY CLOSE TO THE OH RIVER WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK PUTS PORTIONS
OF SE OH...IE PERRY/MORGAN INTO PRECIP TYPE CONUNDRUMS. THROWING OUT
THE NAM SOLUTION AND EVEN DISCARDING THE S TRACK OF GFS...STILL
LEAVES A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT FOR PERRY COUNTY VIA THE
NEW ECMWF RUN.

AFTER SOME COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO
HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF
MORGAN...N ATHENS AND VINTON MAY ALSO GET IN ON THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BEFORE SWITCHING TO RA WHICH MAY BE ADVISORY WORTHY IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. ELSEWHERE...THERMAL PROFILES STILL INDICATE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. EXCEPTION IS THE
E SLOPES PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD CAD SIGNATURE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO IN THE CARDS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SLEET OR SNOW AT ONSET WITH WARM FRONT CROSSING. COULD SEE AN
ADVISORY EVENTUALLY BEING ISSUED FOR THIS. OTHERWISE THE WARM LOW
LEVEL SURGE THE RULE FOR MOST IN WV WITH THOSE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS IN SE OH CLOSE TO WINTRY TYPE PRECIP ON THE COLD SIDE. WILL
INSERT A MENTION IN HWO FOR POCAHONTAS COUNTY AND OTHER SE OH
COUNTIES MENTIONED ABOVE FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TROUBLING ESPECIALLY AFTER
CONSIDERING WHAT JUST HAPPENED. HPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A FEELING THAT
STRONG DOWNSLOPING MAY HELP PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS AND SW VA A
BIT AS FAR AS HIGH QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD THE LOW TRACK UP THE OHIO
RIVER. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AREAWIDE EXCEPT FOR PERRY FOR
RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG WITH AN ICE JAM WORRY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS. A CHANGE TO SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME COATINGS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.

ALSO OF NOTE IS STOUT LLJ DEPICTED ON THE MODELS TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO SHOW ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION TO KEEP MOST IF
OFF THE DECK. STILL ALLOWED FOR SOME 20 KT GUSTS...A BIT HIGHER IN
SE WV.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HARD TO FIGURE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB.  ONLY POPS
WERE SOME TOKEN 20 PERCENTS FOR THE MOST PART.  SO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FIGURED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN BULK OF PCPN FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW.  SEEMS THE HIGHER
PCPN TOTALS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE TO OUR EAST...TOWARD THE COAST.

STILL LEFT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.  INITIAL SET UP ON SATURDAY HAS
MOISTURE MAX OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ANOTHER IN THE MIDWEST.  RATHER
FRAGMENTED LEADING INTO THE MAIN EVENT.

COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUING WITH THE RAP MODEL WHICH HOLDS THE IFR MOISTURE THROUGH
12Z FOR THE MOST PART...DEPENDING ON TERMINAL. PKB WILL LIKELY BE
THE FIRST TO ESCAPE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 15Z AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN
SETTLES IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AND WILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY...CEILINGS FIRST AND THEN VISIBILITIES AS THE LOWEST
LEVELS SATURATE.

BKW TO STAY IN THE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING COULD VARY. TIMING OF IFR
WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/04/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE
AWARE OF THE PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...26

EQUIPMENT...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

 1124 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT WILL BACK...BECOMING
EAST BY SUNRISE.  ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUSTAIN
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SNOW AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.  SURFACE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEFORE NOON
TUESDAY.  CEILINGS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO MVFR RANGE BETWEEN 17Z AND
22Z TUESDAY AS THREAT FOR FURTHER LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES.  CEILINGS
MAY LOWER INTO IFR RANGE AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY AS COLD NORTH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS, FREEZING FOG, AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED
THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST
TEXAS, AND FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ALREADY INCREASING TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST WHERE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY THAT APPEARS TO BE
ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER 1 AM AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST, A SCENARIO
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE TEXAS TECH WRF. THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW A BANDED
SNOW SIGNAL BETWEEN ADRIAN AND AMARILLO, LIKELY TIED TO DEEP, STRONG
UPPER-/LOWER-LEVEL COUPLING AND A TROWAL FEATURE. IF THE BAND
DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST, CLOSER TO AMARILLO, WE`RE CONCERNED THAT THE
MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS AMARILLO COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. WE`LL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY, BUT WE`VE INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADDED DEAF SMITH COUNTY
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WITHIN THIS BAND OF SNOW AN AVERAGE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES IS LIKELY, BUT A
LOCALIZED 5-INCH SNOWFALL TOTAL CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FARTHER NORTH AND EAST, OUR DILEMMA WAS WHETHER TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR BEAVER COUNTY. WE`RE STILL ON THE FENCE WITH THIS,
DESPITE STRONG UPPER-/LOWER-LEVEL COUPLING, A TROWAL MOVING OVER
THIS AREA, AND A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOWFALL. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR
4" SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE FURTHER BEEN REDUCED ON THE 21Z RUN. HOWEVER,
WE FEEL THE SREF IS TOO LOW ON SNOWFALL TOTALS, LIKELY A RESULT OF
ITS SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS BEING BASED ON 2 METER TEMPERATURES. USING
ITS 2 METER TEMPS, SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WOULD BE ABOUT 9.5:1, WHICH
SEEMS FAR TOO LOW IN THIS SETUP (WE`VE USED A 14:1 RATIO). STILL, WE
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS AN ISOLATED 6-INCH AMOUNT IN BEAVER
COUNTY, BUT OVERALL, THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE UNDER 6 INCHES. ONE ADJUSTMENT WE DID MAKE TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES WAS
TO EXTEND IT UNTIL 2 PM AS THE SNOW LIKELY WON`T TAPER OFF UNTIL
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON MANY ELEMENTS
AND ESPECIALLY TIMING THESE ELEMENTS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE AFTER 06Z AS -FZDZ BRIEFLY DEVELOPS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY ALL TERMINALS COULD
BE AT OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS, PARTICULARLY AT KDHT AND KGUY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AT KAMA FIRST, FOLLOWED BY KDHT, AND
FINALLY KGUY.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECASTS CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TONIGHT/
TUESDAY REMAIN QUITE COMPLEX. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE...BUT WILL STILL EXCLUDE DEAF SMITH COUNTY. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO CONVEY VARIED IMPACTS WITH THIS EVENT...AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE /INCLUDING AMARILLO/ WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
LOW-END ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS /UP TO 1-2 INCHES/ WHILE THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE HIGH-END ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS
/3-5 INCHES/.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN RE-NEWED FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOW WILL
DEFINITELY FOCUS ON THE 06-18Z TIMEFRAME. THAT IS WHEN A SHARP AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT AND PROVIDE VERY DEEP
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS SYSTEM...NOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO CURRENTLY HAS AN IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR
REPRESENTATION...AND THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT IT WILL EMERGE DEEPER
THAN PROGGED BY MOST MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS A MATCH FOR THE LAMBERT
TYPE-B SNOW PATTERN IN WEST TEXAS WHICH TENDS TO RESULT IN SOME OF
OUR HEAVIER SNOWFALLS. HOWEVER...MOST NWP CONTINUES PERSISTENT
DEPICTIONS OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PANHANDLE AS JET DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SPREAD NORTHEAST AND FOCUS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ALL
GUIDANCE...ONCE CORRECTED FOR KNOWN BIASES...IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2-5 INCHES NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THIS
INCLUDES THE CIPS ANALOG AND SREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH ONLY
DEPICTS A 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
GUIDANCE LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO PATTERN RECOGNITION CONCEPTUAL MODELS
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE MORE STRINGENT 6 INCH WINTER STORM CRITERIA
COULD BE THREATENED. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS FURTHER EXACERBATED DUE TO
RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS WHICH HAVE SHIFTED THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGEST FORCING/HEAVY SNOW WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL MAINTAIN/EXPAND THE CURRENT
ADVISORY BUT WILL SEGMENT IT TO REFLECT THE VARYING ACCUMULATIONS
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON NEAR WINTER STORM IMPACTS IN THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
LOCALIZED 6 INCH AMOUNTS COULD MATERIALIZE THERE...AND ULTIMATELY
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING UPGRADE.

THERE ARE OTHER TIMEFRAMES OF CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL. ANOTHER INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF TOMORROW/S SYSTEM. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW APPEAR LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET LINGERS ATOP
LIGHT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR BY THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHARP UPPER
AIR TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO TRANSLATE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR WETTING
MOISTURE WILL EXIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK..

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

03/13






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

 1051 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS, FREEZING FOG, AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED
THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST
TEXAS, AND FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ALREADY INCREASING TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST WHERE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY THAT APPEARS TO BE
ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER 1 AM AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST, A SCENARIO
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE TEXAS TECH WRF. THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW A BANDED
SNOW SIGNAL BETWEEN ADRIAN AND AMARILLO, LIKELY TIED TO DEEP, STRONG
UPPER-/LOWER-LEVEL COUPLING AND A TROWAL FEATURE. IF THE BAND
DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST, CLOSER TO AMARILLO, WE`RE CONCERNED THAT THE
MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS AMARILLO COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. WE`LL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY, BUT WE`VE INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADDED DEAF SMITH COUNTY
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WITHIN THIS BAND OF SNOW AN AVERAGE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES IS LIKELY, BUT A
LOCALIZED 5-INCH SNOWFALL TOTAL CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FARTHER NORTH AND EAST, OUR DILEMMA WAS WHETHER TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR BEAVER COUNTY. WE`RE STILL ON THE FENCE WITH THIS,
DESPITE STRONG UPPER-/LOWER-LEVEL COUPLING, A TROWAL MOVING OVER
THIS AREA, AND A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOWFALL. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR
4" SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE FURTHER BEEN REDUCED ON THE 21Z RUN. HOWEVER,
WE FEEL THE SREF IS TOO LOW ON SNOWFALL TOTALS, LIKELY A RESULT OF
ITS SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS BEING BASED ON 2 METER TEMPERATURES. USING
ITS 2 METER TEMPS, SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WOULD BE ABOUT 9.5:1, WHICH
SEEMS FAR TOO LOW IN THIS SETUP (WE`VE USED A 14:1 RATIO). STILL, WE
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS AN ISOLATED 6-INCH AMOUNT IN BEAVER
COUNTY, BUT OVERALL, THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE UNDER 6 INCHES. ONE ADJUSTMENT WE DID MAKE TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES WAS
TO EXTEND IT UNTIL 2 PM AS THE SNOW LIKELY WON`T TAPER OFF UNTIL
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON MANY ELEMENTS
AND ESPECIALLY TIMING THESE ELEMENTS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE AFTER 06Z AS -FZDZ BRIEFLY DEVELOPS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY ALL TERMINALS COULD
BE AT OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS, PARTICULARLY AT KDHT AND KGUY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AT KAMA FIRST, FOLLOWED BY KDHT, AND
FINALLY KGUY.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECASTS CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TONIGHT/
TUESDAY REMAIN QUITE COMPLEX. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE...BUT WILL STILL EXCLUDE DEAF SMITH COUNTY. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO CONVEY VARIED IMPACTS WITH THIS EVENT...AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE /INCLUDING AMARILLO/ WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
LOW-END ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS /UP TO 1-2 INCHES/ WHILE THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE HIGH-END ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS
/3-5 INCHES/.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN RE-NEWED FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOW WILL
DEFINITELY FOCUS ON THE 06-18Z TIMEFRAME. THAT IS WHEN A SHARP AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT AND PROVIDE VERY DEEP
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS SYSTEM...NOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO CURRENTLY HAS AN IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR
REPRESENTATION...AND THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT IT WILL EMERGE DEEPER
THAN PROGGED BY MOST MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS A MATCH FOR THE LAMBERT
TYPE-B SNOW PATTERN IN WEST TEXAS WHICH TENDS TO RESULT IN SOME OF
OUR HEAVIER SNOWFALLS. HOWEVER...MOST NWP CONTINUES PERSISTENT
DEPICTIONS OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PANHANDLE AS JET DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SPREAD NORTHEAST AND FOCUS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ALL
GUIDANCE...ONCE CORRECTED FOR KNOWN BIASES...IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2-5 INCHES NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THIS
INCLUDES THE CIPS ANALOG AND SREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH ONLY
DEPICTS A 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
GUIDANCE LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO PATTERN RECOGNITION CONCEPTUAL MODELS
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE MORE STRINGENT 6 INCH WINTER STORM CRITERIA
COULD BE THREATENED. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS FURTHER EXACERBATED DUE TO
RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS WHICH HAVE SHIFTED THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGEST FORCING/HEAVY SNOW WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL MAINTAIN/EXPAND THE CURRENT
ADVISORY BUT WILL SEGMENT IT TO REFLECT THE VARYING ACCUMULATIONS
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON NEAR WINTER STORM IMPACTS IN THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
LOCALIZED 6 INCH AMOUNTS COULD MATERIALIZE THERE...AND ULTIMATELY
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING UPGRADE.

THERE ARE OTHER TIMEFRAMES OF CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL. ANOTHER INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF TOMORROW/S SYSTEM. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW APPEAR LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET LINGERS ATOP
LIGHT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR BY THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHARP UPPER
AIR TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO TRANSLATE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR WETTING
MOISTURE WILL EXIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK..

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

JC/JJ






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1046 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

QUIET MID-WINTER WX WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE ACRS THE NRN HEMISPHERE WL BE
THE MASSIVE POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WL BE SLOWLY
RETROGRADING AWAY FM AK DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WL SPLIT AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE HIGH/RIDGE...THEN MERGE
BACK TOGETHER OVER NOAM. THE LCN OF THE FCST AREA WITHIN THE
CONFLUENT ZONE WHERE THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS MERGE BACK TOGETHER
WL RESULT IN FAIRLY TRANQUIL MID-WINTER WX FOR THE AREA.

PCPN SHOULD CONSIST OF JUST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT
TIMES AS THE FCST AREA GETS GRAZED BY THE TAIL OF NRN STREAM
SHRTWVS OR THE NRN FRINGE OF SRN STREAM CYCLONES. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WL BE RIDGING FM NW CANADA...SEWD...BENEATH THE UPR
CONFLUENT ZONE. THAT WL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IF THE MED RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPR
PATTERN...AND THEY ARE ALL SHOWING PRETTY MUCH THE SAME
TRENDS...WE WILL FINALLY GET THE NERN PAC UPR RIDGE SHIFTED FAR
ENOUGH W TO ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
BUT THAT PROBABLY WON/T HAPPEN UNTIL BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA
IS SENDING A RATHER THICK LOOKING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...BAND OF LOW STRATUS
AND FLURRIES ARE MAKING A LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER NE MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE PINE TREE EFFECT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED 25 DEGREES AT
LAND O LAKES AND 22 DEGREES AT EAGLE RIVER. WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORECAST CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND TEMPS AND
CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SAGS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TO
WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LITTLE TO ANY TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ALONG
THIS TROUGH AS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
BUT UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
JETSTREAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE SOLID
NATURE TO THEIR APPEARANCE...THINK A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TEMPS
THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS IS UNLIKELY. LOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA WERE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. SO WILL HAVE LOWS IN THAT
SIMILAR RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE BCALLBLEND.

TUESDAY...SUBTLE REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGER OVERHEAD
DURING THE MORNING. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS PROJECTED TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH. NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SUN AS SOME OF THE
MID AND UPPER MOISTURE PEELS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS
COOL OFF SOME BEHIND THE FRONT OVER N-C WISCONSIN...SO WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS THERE...AND THE LOWER 20S OVER
E-C WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

COLD BUT QUIET PATTERN WL CONTINUE. THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA
COULD GET GRAZED BY THE SNOW SHIELD FM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUE NGT INTO WED. THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN STILL IN
DOUBT...SO DIDN/T TAKE POPS BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. EVEN IF PCPN
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA...PROBABLY WOULD NOT GET MORE THAN A
DUSTING. SITN WOULD NORMALLY BE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE-
EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT WITH THE LAKE PROBABLY OVER 50 PCT
ICE COVERED...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THE LAKE-EFFECT WOULD AMOUNT TO
ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES OR SCT LGT SHSN. THE NEXT SRN
STREAM SYSTEM WON/T HEAD EWD FM THE PLAINS UNTIL THE WEEKEND...
AND IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE TUE NGT SYSTEM.

TEMPS WL PROBABLY AVERAGE 10-18 F DEG BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FM NORMAL...BUT IT PROBABLY WON/T
SEEM EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AFTER WHAT WE HAD LAST MONTH. ALSO...WE/VE
NOW GAINED BACK ABOUT 6 WEEKS WORTH OF SUN ANGLE...AND WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THAT ON MAX TEMPS DURING THE DAY.
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN ARE UP IN VILAS
COUNTY...DESPITE THE FACT THAT THEY FELL TO 20 BELOW TO 25 BELOW
ZERO THIS MORNING. STRANGE THOUGH IT MAY SEEM...THIS IS ACTUALLY A
SIGN WE ARE HEADING TOWARD SPRING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH FLOW OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...WILL BRING PERIODS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 659 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO
MANITOBA AND SRN SASK AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTING IN WSW
MID/UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...WEAK NW TO N FLOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY INTO ERN UPPER MI AND CNTRL WI.
TO THE WEST...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
THERE WAS ENOUGH TO MOISTURE BELOW THE 4K FT INVERSION FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN ONTARIO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN UPPER MI. WITH 850
MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C...RADAR INDICATED SOME LIGHT LES FROM
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING WHERE GAPS IN THE ICE COVER WERE PRESENT.

TODAY...SINCE A WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ANY ADDITIONAL LES IS EXPECTED WILL BE
DISORGANIZED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INTO THE NE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE LARGER REMAINING AREA OF OPEN WATER. SOME
FLURRIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING
DOWNWIND OF ANOTHER LIMITED STRETCH OF OPEN WATER.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND ACYC NRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN ONTARIO AND A LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. EVEN WITH LIMITED HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE MOSTLY
ICE COVERED LAKE...SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OR
MUNISING WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST
WITH READINGS FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. OVER THE WEST...TEMPS COULD
STILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -10 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN POSSIBLY SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE
MOST PART...RAN WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHICH
LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST FOR PRECIP. WHILE STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP MAY BE ON WED AS SOME HIGHER RES MODELS
INDICATE NNW LES OVER ERN ALGER AND NRN LUCE COUNTIES FROM THE MORE
OPEN WATERS OF FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT NOT SURE EXACTLY WHAT THE
EXTENT AND LOCATION OF THE BEST LES MAY BE. ALSO...WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS A RESULT OF INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR OVER NWRN UPPER MI. A SLOW AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

WITH UPSLOPE NW FLOW OF COLD AIR CONTINUING...EXPECT PREDOMINANT
HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CIGS TO DOMINATE CMX AND IWD THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FCST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SUSTAINED LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE AT CMX WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD RESULT IN PREDOMINANT
VFR CONDITIONS THERE. LATER TODAY...A WIND SHIFT TOWARD THE N IN
ADVANCE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS MAY BRING THE
MVFR CIGS INTO IWD/SAW...WHERE THIS WIND WILL BRING AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUEPRIOR AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND WHEN A LOW MOVES THROUGH HUDSON BAY...COULD SEE WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 30KTS ON THURSDAY. WITH MUCH OF THE LAKE ICE
COVERED...SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CONCERN FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A
POCKET OF OPEN WATER NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND MARAIS MICHIGAN WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 906 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS POINT TO THE FORECAST. DID
TWEAK THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. WILL BE MAKING DECISIONS LATER TODAY AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT TO ADD NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES TO ANY SORT OF ADVISORY
HEADLINES...AND WHETHER OR NOT TO LEAVE CURRENT ADVISORIES HOISTED
IN OHIO...OR MAKE CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE GET RID OF ONE MESSY SYSTEM 24 HOURS AGO...AND STILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH ITS AFTER EFFECTS FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL FROM
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT...IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION OFF THE SURFACE. NEVER A GOOD COMBINATION.

FIRST...LOW LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A SHARP CUT OFF MAINLY JUST
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS HAS WREAKED HAVOC WITH THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS AREAS IN THE CLEAR...SUCH AS ATHENS...BOTTOMED OUT UNDER
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DROPPED INTO THE LOWER
TEENS...WHILE UNDER THE STRATUS...IT COULD NOT DROP OUT OF THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS ALSO ENVELOPED THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH
BKW IN THEM MOST OF THE NIGHT. RAP SUGGESTING THIS WILL BE NOT BE IN
A HURRY TO EXIT TODAY...AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE LAST
EVENING...WILL LIKELY NEED TO PUSH THE ENDING TIME OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER INTO THE DAY AS THE MODELS TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHAT
TO DO WITH THIS MOISTURE. IN TERMS OF SKY COVERAGE...THERE WILL
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE HOWEVER...AS WE ARE ALREADY SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND SHOULD BE OVERCAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...AND HAVE KEPT THE TIMING AHEAD OF THE
MODELS AS IS COMMON WITH THESE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ORIGINATING
STORMS. NOW COMES THE FUN OF DETERMINING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MOS GUIDANCE FROM ANY MODEL WAS LARGELY USELESS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...AND FELT THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...SNOW  PACK AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STIFF ARM
THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO EVENTUALLY SCOUR
OUT THE COOL AIR. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND INTO THE
PLEASANTS AND TYLER COUNTY AREAS...AS WELL AS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. WILL ALSO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF THE WET BULB EFFECT ALOFT AT
THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL NOT HELP MATTERS IN TERMS
OF GETTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. RUNNING THE WEATHER
PROCEDURE USING MODEL ALOFT TEMPERATURES AND THE SURFACE...BASICALLY
IN A TOP DOWN METHOD...PRODUCED MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND JUST ACROSS THE RIVER OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
THIS WAS THE REASON FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. PERRY COUNTY
WAS AN EASY CALL FOR THE UPGRADE TO A WARNING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW ON TOP OF THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.

PER USUAL...WE ARE ON THE GRADIENT. IMAGINE THAT. SO IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT ANY MISSES REGARDING THE TEMPERATURES COULD HAVE HUGE
IMPACT ON THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW LINES AND TIMINGS...AS
WAS THE STRUGGLE LAST NIGHT AS THE SUB FREEZING AIR TRIED MIGHTILY
TO SINK SOUTHWARD. HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
OTHER COUNTIES IN THE MIXED PRECIPITATION. WANTED TO GIVE THE DAY
SHIFT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE SOME MUCH NEEDED FLEXIBILITY FOR SOME LATE
CHANGES TO THESE HEADLINES AS FAR AS EXPANSIONS OR UPGRADES DUE TO A
SOMEWHAT MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

NOW IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THE FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN PLACE.
THERE IS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER CWA WIDE THAT EITHER FELL AS RAIN OR
IS STORED IN SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. WITH A SATURATED
GROUND THAT MAY BE PARTIALLY FROZEN IN AREAS...RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN
THAT WILL FALL OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WILL TEST THE AREA
STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS AS ANOTHER 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FACT THAT THIS RAIN WILL FALL
BASIN WIDE IS THE OTHER TROUBLING PART OF THIS EQUATION. IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF A CONFLICT WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE SLEET AND SNOW ARE A
POSSIBILITY...BUT FEEL THIS FLOOD WATCH IS STILL WELL SERVED IN
THESE PARTS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...A SHARP DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW...SO
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF SOUTHEAST OHIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

NOT DONE YET.

SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW MAKES LIFE DIFFICULT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
CWA. STILL WATCHING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT 925MB WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOW COLD AIR DAMMING THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE.
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW PROMISES TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING...AND WITH THE WARM PUNCH ALOFT IN RAIN...FREEZING RAIN IS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR THE
GREENBRIER AND CHEAT RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS TEMPERATURES WERE NOT AS
BULLISH ON THE COLD BIAS THAT APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLUTION AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THUS...FEAR THAT THE OUTPUT FROM USING THE
WEATHER PROCEDURE WAS MODEST FREEZING RAIN RELEGATED TO THE FAR
EASTERN FRINGES OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. NO HEADLINE YET
HERE. WILL LOOK OVER THIS ONE MORE TIME BEFORE LEAVING FOR THE
NIGHT...BUT HOPING THE NEXT MODEL RUN IS MORE HELPFUL IN THE
TEMPERATURES OUT THAT WAY THAN IT WAS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

THINK THAT IS IT. MY BRAIN IS SHOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STORM SYSTEM IS PULLING OUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXCEPT
FOR THE NAM...OTHER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER TIMING
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FRONT AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE I79 CORRIDOR...WITH CAT POPS IN RAIN
PRECEDING THE FRONT. FRONT WITH THE ORGANIZED RAIN EXITS MOUNTAINS
BY 18Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS HAVE A TYPICAL DRY SLOT FOR THIS
UPPER PATTERN...THIS BEING A STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS...WE HAVE A SLOT OF NO
POPS FOR A TIME BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT BEFORE THE REAL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND GOOD COLD ADVECTION IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
FALLING DURING THE DAY...THE PATTERN IS NOT REALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
POST FRONTAL AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS THAT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A DISTINCTIVE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE
TO THE FLOW...AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE. THUS...WE
WILL CONFINE ANY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THESE WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN THROUGH THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER
SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...BUT MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S. MODERATING TEMPS FRIDAY UNDER SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HARD TO FIGURE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB.  ONLY POPS
WERE SOME TOKEN 20 PERCENTS FOR THE MOST PART.  SO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FIGURED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN BULK OF PCPN FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW.  SEEMS THE HIGHER
PCPN TOTALS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE TO OUR EAST...TOWARD THE COAST.

STILL LEFT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.  INITIAL SET UP ON SATURDAY HAS
MOISTURE MAX OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ANOTHER IN THE MIDWEST.  RATHER
FRAGMENTED LEADING INTO THE MAIN EVENT.

COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...AND EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR GENERALLY AFTER 16Z TODAY.
BKW IS THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT MAY NOT COME ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS
AND HAVE THE TAF PESSIMISTIC IN THIS CASE. THE RAP MODEL WAS
HANDLING THIS THE BEST.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE
CEILINGS LOWERING AGAIN FROM THE TOP DOWN. EXPECTING IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT IN PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL MAINLY BE RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. PKB MAY BE DEALING WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AT TIMES
WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
LATER TONIGHT.

BRING THE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT IN RAIN WHEN THE WINDS
DROP BELOW 5KTS.

SURFACE FLOW NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AROUND 10KTS FOR THE
LOWLAND TERMINALS OF CRW...PKB...HTS...AND CKB. EKN AND BKW WILL
HAVE A SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WHERE BKW MAY GUST TO
20KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS EROSION MAY VARY. TIMING OF IFR
WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD VARY...AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION ONSET TIMING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE
AWARE OF THE PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...26

EQUIPMENT...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 547 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE GET RID OF ONE MESSY SYSTEM 24 HOURS AGO...AND STILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH ITS AFTER EFFECTS FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL FROM
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT...IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION OFF THE SURFACE. NEVER A GOOD COMBINATION.

FIRST...LOW LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A SHARP CUT OFF MAINLY JUST
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS HAS WREAKED HAVOC WITH THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS AREAS IN THE CLEAR...SUCH AS ATHENS...BOTTOMED OUT UNDER
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DROPPED INTO THE LOWER
TEENS...WHILE UNDER THE STRATUS...IT COULD NOT DROP OUT OF THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS ALSO ENVELOPED THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH
BKW IN THEM MOST OF THE NIGHT. RAP SUGGESTING THIS WILL BE NOT BE IN
A HURRY TO EXIT TODAY...AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE LAST
EVENING...WILL LIKELY NEED TO PUSH THE ENDING TIME OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER INTO THE DAY AS THE MODELS TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHAT
TO DO WITH THIS MOISTURE. IN TERMS OF SKY COVERAGE...THERE WILL
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE HOWEVER...AS WE ARE ALREADY SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND SHOULD BE OVERCAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...AND HAVE KEPT THE TIMING AHEAD OF THE
MODELS AS IS COMMON WITH THESE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ORIGINATING
STORMS. NOW COMES THE FUN OF DETERMINING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MOS GUIDANCE FROM ANY MODEL WAS LARGELY USELESS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...AND FELT THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...SNOW  PACK AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STIFF ARM
THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO EVENTUALLY SCOUR
OUT THE COOL AIR. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND INTO THE
PLEASANTS AND TYLER COUNTY AREAS...AS WELL AS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. WILL ALSO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF THE WET BULB EFFECT ALOFT AT
THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL NOT HELP MATTERS IN TERMS
OF GETTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. RUNNING THE WEATHER
PROCEDURE USING MODEL ALOFT TEMPERATURES AND THE SURFACE...BASICALLY
IN A TOP DOWN METHOD...PRODUCED MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND JUST ACROSS THE RIVER OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
THIS WAS THE REASON FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. PERRY COUNTY
WAS AN EASY CALL FOR THE UPGRADE TO A WARNING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW ON TOP OF THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.

PER USUAL...WE ARE ON THE GRADIENT. IMAGINE THAT. SO IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT ANY MISSES REGARDING THE TEMPERATURES COULD HAVE HUGE
IMPACT ON THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW LINES AND TIMINGS...AS
WAS THE STRUGGLE LAST NIGHT AS THE SUB FREEZING AIR TRIED MIGHTILY
TO SINK SOUTHWARD. HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
OTHER COUNTIES IN THE MIXED PRECIPITATION. WANTED TO GIVE THE DAY
SHIFT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE SOME MUCH NEEDED FLEXIBILITY FOR SOME LATE
CHANGES TO THESE HEADLINES AS FAR AS EXPANSIONS OR UPGRADES DUE TO A
SOMEWHAT MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

NOW IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THE FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN PLACE.
THERE IS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER CWA WIDE THAT EITHER FELL AS RAIN OR
IS STORED IN SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. WITH A SATURATED
GROUND THAT MAY BE PARTIALLY FROZEN IN AREAS...RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN
THAT WILL FALL OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WILL TEST THE AREA
STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS AS ANOTHER 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FACT THAT THIS RAIN WILL FALL
BASIN WIDE IS THE OTHER TROUBLING PART OF THIS EQUATION. IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF A CONFLICT WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE SLEET AND SNOW ARE A
POSSIBILITY...BUT FEEL THIS FLOOD WATCH IS STILL WELL SERVED IN
THESE PARTS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...A SHARP DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW...SO
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF SOUTHEAST OHIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

NOT DONE YET.

SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW MAKES LIFE DIFFICULT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
CWA. STILL WATCHING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT 925MB WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOW COLD AIR DAMMING THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE.
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW PROMISES TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING...AND WITH THE WARM PUNCH ALOFT IN RAIN...FREEZING RAIN IS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR THE
GREENBRIER AND CHEAT RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS TEMPERATURES WERE NOT AS
BULLISH ON THE COLD BIAS THAT APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLUTION AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THUS...FEAR THAT THE OUTPUT FROM USING THE
WEATHER PROCEDURE WAS MODEST FREEZING RAIN RELEGATED TO THE FAR
EASTERN FRINGES OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. NO HEADLINE YET
HERE. WILL LOOK OVER THIS ONE MORE TIME BEFORE LEAVING FOR THE
NIGHT...BUT HOPING THE NEXT MODEL RUN IS MORE HELPFUL IN THE
TEMPERATURES OUT THAT WAY THAN IT WAS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

THINK THAT IS IT. MY BRAIN IS SHOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STORM SYSTEM IS PULLING OUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXCEPT
FOR THE NAM...OTHER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER TIMING
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FRONT AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE I79 CORRIDOR...WITH CAT POPS IN RAIN
PRECEDING THE FRONT. FRONT WITH THE ORGANIZED RAIN EXITS MOUNTAINS
BY 18Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS HAVE A TYPICAL DRY SLOT FOR THIS
UPPER PATTERN...THIS BEING A STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS...WE HAVE A SLOT OF NO
POPS FOR A TIME BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT BEFORE THE REAL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND GOOD COLD ADVECTION IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
FALLING DURING THE DAY...THE PATTERN IS NOT REALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
POST FRONTAL AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS THAT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A DISTINCTIVE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE
TO THE FLOW...AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE. THUS...WE
WILL CONFINE ANY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THESE WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN THROUGH THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER
SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...BUT MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S. MODERATING TEMPS FRIDAY UNDER SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HARD TO FIGURE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB.  ONLY POPS
WERE SOME TOKEN 20 PERCENTS FOR THE MOST PART.  SO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FIGURED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN BULK OF PCPN FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW.  SEEMS THE HIGHER
PCPN TOTALS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE TO OUR EAST...TOWARD THE COAST.

STILL LEFT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.  INITIAL SET UP ON SATURDAY HAS
MOISTURE MAX OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ANOTHER IN THE MIDWEST.  RATHER
FRAGMENTED LEADING INTO THE MAIN EVENT.

COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...AND EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR GENERALLY AFTER 16Z TODAY.
BKW IS THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT MAY NOT COME ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS
AND HAVE THE TAF PESSIMISTIC IN THIS CASE. THE RAP MODEL WAS
HANDLING THIS THE BEST.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE
CEILINGS LOWERING AGAIN FROM THE TOP DOWN. EXPECTING IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT IN PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL MAINLY BE RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. PKB MAY BE DEALING WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AT TIMES
WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
LATER TONIGHT.

BRING THE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT IN RAIN WHEN THE WINDS
DROP BELOW 5KTS.

SURFACE FLOW NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AROUND 10KTS FOR THE
LOWLAND TERMINALS OF CRW...PKB...HTS...AND CKB. EKN AND BKW WILL
HAVE A SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WHERE BKW MAY GUST TO
20KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS EROSION MAY VARY. TIMING OF IFR
WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD VARY...AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION ONSET TIMING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE
AWARE OF THE PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...26

EQUIPMENT...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

 551 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. CIGS MAY
RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURG THE COURSE OF TODAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
FALLING TO IFR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HINTED AT IN LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/

SHORT TERM...SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND COLD TEMPS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TX. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER NORTHERN
OK AND SOUTHERN KS...INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW ARE
LOCATED. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE WILL BE THE
FAVORED AREAS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ALTHOUGH THE RUC HAS THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN KS WHILE THE CURRENT HPC WINTER WX
DESK HAS LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THIS AND THE
LATER ONSET OF SNOW...HAVE TRIMMED SNOWFALL TOTALS A TAD ALTHOUGH
STILL LOOKING TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 5 INCHES. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BEAVER COUNTY AS CONFIDENCE
OF THIS AREA RECEIVING ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF 6+ INCHES IS NOT HIGH.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN OK AND
NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE CAN CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A BLAST OF COLD AIR WITH IT...WHICH
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WIND CHILLS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY AND COLD DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT
CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...IT
APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY BE POTENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET WHERE SUBZERO LOWS IN THE
OK PANHANDLE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE ARE POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW ZERO.

LONG TERM...
CONTINUED COLD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN.

THE SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WINDING
DOWN BY THE EVENING. BY FRIDAY WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST USHERING IN A BRIEF AND SLIGHT WARMUP WHERE HIGHS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO AREAS ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CAPROCK WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 20S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WILL PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT CAN
GENERATE ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS FRONT AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER AND WETTER ECMWF. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST...WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MODEST WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...
     WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

 515 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND COLD TEMPS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TX. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER NORTHERN
OK AND SOUTHERN KS...INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW ARE
LOCATED. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE WILL BE THE
FAVORED AREAS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ALTHOUGH THE RUC HAS THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN KS WHILE THE CURRENT HPC WINTER WX
DESK HAS LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THIS AND THE
LATER ONSET OF SNOW...HAVE TRIMMED SNOWFALL TOTALS A TAD ALTHOUGH
STILL LOOKING TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 5 INCHES. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BEAVER COUNTY AS CONFIDENCE
OF THIS AREA RECEIVING ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF 6+ INCHES IS NOT HIGH.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN OK AND
NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE CAN CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A BLAST OF COLD AIR WITH IT...WHICH
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WIND CHILLS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY AND COLD DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT
CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...IT
APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY BE POTENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET WHERE SUBZERO LOWS IN THE
OK PANHANDLE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE ARE POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...
CONTINUED COLD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN.

THE SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WINDING
DOWN BY THE EVENING. BY FRIDAY WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST USHERING IN A BRIEF AND SLIGHT WARMUP WHERE HIGHS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO AREAS ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CAPROCK WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 20S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WILL PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT CAN
GENERATE ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS FRONT AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER AND WETTER ECMWF. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST...WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MODEST WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                33  10  18   4  14 /  60  10  10  40  40
BEAVER OK                  26   3   9   1  11 / 100  20  10  30  40
BOISE CITY OK              23   2  14   0  16 /  80  30  10  30  40
BORGER TX                  29  11  16   3  15 /  80  10  10  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              33  13  21   8  20 /  60  20  10  40  40
CANYON TX                  33  13  20   6  16 /  50  10  10  40  40
CLARENDON TX               32  13  19   5  12 /  70   5  10  30  40
DALHART TX                 31   9  16   3  19 /  80  20  10  40  40
GUYMON OK                  25   4  10   0  13 /  90  20  10  30  40
HEREFORD TX                32  14  21   7  19 /  50  10  10  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                29   6  10   2  12 / 100  10  10  30  40
PAMPA TX                   29   7  15   2  11 /  80  10  10  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                32  11  16   5  13 /  80  10  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              33  15  18   7  13 /  70   5  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...
     WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 1132 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014
REMOVED SOME LOWER VALLEY ADVISORIES AND EXTEND SOME HIGHER VALLEY
ADVISORIES UNTIL 5 PM.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014

VERY SLICK ROADS IS THE THEME THIS MORNING WITH 2-5 INCHES
REPORTED ACROSS THE GRAND VALLEY. AT 830 AM THE RADAR LOOKS
CONVECTIVE WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS SHIFTING
QUICKLY EAST OF A LINE FORM NORWOOD TO DEBEQUE. SO PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT TRAVEL ON I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE TROUGH IS OVERHEAD AND LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FINAL VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW-SE BACKSIDE JET LIFTS THROUGH SE UTAH-
WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON ADDING SOME DYNAMICAL LIFT.
MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT WAS LEAKING INTO NW COLORADO THIS
MORNING WITH LADORE RAWS WINDS GUSTY FROM THE NORTH. THE 12Z NAM
AND RAP MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH NW COLORADO TODAY
AND HANG UP ALONG THE ROAN-FLATTOPS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEN
RETREATING NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT AS THE VORT MAX/JET PASS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE LATEST MODELS ARE PRODUCING
AROUND 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE ROAN/FLATTOPS/GRAND MESA/NW SAN
JUANS WITH AROUND 3 INCHES ON THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. MOST
VALLEYS LIMITED TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES...THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL YIELD SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

AFTER A BREAK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SNOWFALL RETURNS TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014

NO CHANGE TO THE VARIOUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...DESPITE THE SLOW START TO THE SNOW IN GRAND
JCT AS OF 300 AM.

UPPER LOW OVER SRN NM WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY
WHILE ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NW CURVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WY. THIS
WILL TEND TO PIVOT THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO
OVER CO TODAY WHILE ALLOWING AN ARCTIC FRONT TO SAG IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER BROAD UPPER DIVERGENCE
TOWARD 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE NAM/EC MODELS FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE Q-G VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMUMS
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG IN THE MODELS AS
IN PREVIOUS RUNS TO REALLY FOCUS HEAVIER SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...TEMPS
IN THE MOIST LAYER REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AND OROGRAPHICS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE LIFT.
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES IN FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE TINGE TO THE SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ON THE DECLINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DOESN`T CLEAR THE NORTH UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER...SO SNOW SHOULD PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER THE NRN
MTNS TONIGHT. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO MANY VALLEYS TONIGHT FROM
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND DESPITE COLDER AIR BRINGING IN LOWER
DEWPOINTS. EXPECT SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS NW CO.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DOWN DAY FOR PRECIPITATION. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING THE FLOW INTO
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE
MTNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS FOR THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY FOR SE UT AND FAR SW CO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS AN ELONGATED E-W TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CWA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE EXAMINATION OF UPPER LEVELS INDICATES
MINIMAL JET SUPPORT AND ATTENDANT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHES TO
CAUSE SNOW FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS
BEING FAVORED. AS THIS OCCURS...A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CLOSES OFF OVER WASHINGTON STATE FRIDAY MORNING AND DUE TO ITS
CYCLONIC FLOW...WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
PAC NW AND REACH ERN UT AND WRN CO. ATTM...BOTH GFS AND EC NOT
REALLY SHOWING AN APPRECIABLE BREAK BETWEEN THESE TWO WX MAKERS
WITH PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ON THE
LOW SIDE BEFORE PICKING UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHLIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AS HIGHLIGHTS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR CURRENT
STORM.

A VERY BRIEF REPRIEVE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER SHOT OF WINTER WX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH
EVENT SO FAR OUT...BLENDED POPS GIVING SCHC TO CHC -SN FOR MAINLY
HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 850 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON FOR VALLEY TAF SITES WHILE MTN
TAFS ESPECIALLY KSBS...KASE...KEGE AND KTEX WILL LIKELY SEE LOW
CIGS/VIS ALL DAY WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNSET.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UT AND
WESTERN CO THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD VFR AND ONLY LOCAL MTN
OBSCURATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUD CIGS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE VFR THOUGH MTN TOPS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING BELOW 7500
     FEET FOR COZ017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 7500
     FEET FOR COZ017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING COZ010-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING
     COZ009-013-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     COZ001-002-007-008-011.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING COZ004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ005.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON UTZ023-025.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING BELOW 7500
     FEET FOR UTZ028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 7500
     FEET FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JOE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 850 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014

VERY SLICK ROADS IS THE THEME THIS MORNING WITH 2-5 INCHES
REPORTED ACROSS THE GRAND VALLEY. AT 830 AM THE RADAR LOOKS
CONVECTIVE WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS SHIFTING
QUICKLY EAST OF A LINE FORM NORWOOD TO DEBEQUE. SO PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT TRAVEL ON I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE TROUGH IS OVERHEAD AND LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FINAL VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW-SE BACKSIDE JET LIFTS THROUGH SE UTAH-
WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON ADDING SOME DYNAMICAL LIFT.
MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT WAS LEAKING INTO NW COLORADO THIS
MORNING WITH LADORE RAWS WINDS GUSTY FROM THE NORTH. THE 12Z NAM
AND RAP MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH NW COLORADO TODAY
AND HANG UP ALONG THE ROAN-FLATTOPS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEN
RETREATING NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT AS THE VORT MAX/JET PASS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE LATEST MODELS ARE PRODUCING
AROUND 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE ROAN/FLATTOPS/GRAND MESA/NW SAN
JUANS WITH AROUND 3 INCHES ON THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. MOST
VALLEYS LIMITED TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES...THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL YIELD SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

AFTER A BREAK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SNOWFALL RETURNS TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014

NO CHANGE TO THE VARIOUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...DESPITE THE SLOW START TO THE SNOW IN GRAND
JCT AS OF 300 AM.

UPPER LOW OVER SRN NM WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY
WHILE ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NW CURVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WY. THIS
WILL TEND TO PIVOT THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO
OVER CO TODAY WHILE ALLOWING AN ARCTIC FRONT TO SAG IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER BROAD UPPER DIVERGENCE
TOWARD 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE NAM/EC MODELS FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE Q-G VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMUMS
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG IN THE MODELS AS
IN PREVIOUS RUNS TO REALLY FOCUS HEAVIER SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...TEMPS
IN THE MOIST LAYER REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AND OROGRAPHICS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE LIFT.
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES IN FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE TINGE TO THE SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ON THE DECLINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DOESN`T CLEAR THE NORTH UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER...SO SNOW SHOULD PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER THE NRN
MTNS TONIGHT. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO MANY VALLEYS TONIGHT FROM
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND DESPITE COLDER AIR BRINGING IN LOWER
DEWPOINTS. EXPECT SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS NW CO.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DOWN DAY FOR PRECIPITATION. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING THE FLOW INTO
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE
MTNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS FOR THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY FOR SE UT AND FAR SW CO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS AN ELONGATED E-W TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CWA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE EXAMINATION OF UPPER LEVELS INDICATES
MINIMAL JET SUPPORT AND ATTENDANT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHES TO
CAUSE SNOW FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS
BEING FAVORED. AS THIS OCCURS...A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CLOSES OFF OVER WASHINGTON STATE FRIDAY MORNING AND DUE TO ITS
CYCLONIC FLOW...WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
PAC NW AND REACH ERN UT AND WRN CO. ATTM...BOTH GFS AND EC NOT
REALLY SHOWING AN APPRECIABLE BREAK BETWEEN THESE TWO WX MAKERS
WITH PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ON THE
LOW SIDE BEFORE PICKING UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHLIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AS HIGHLIGHTS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR CURRENT
STORM.

A VERY BRIEF REPRIEVE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER SHOT OF WINTER WX TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH
EVENT SO FAR OUT...BLENDED POPS GIVING SCHC TO CHC -SN FOR MAINLY
HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 850 AM MST TUE FEB 4 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON FOR VALLEY TAF SITES WHILE MTN
TAFS ESPECIALLY KSBS...KASE...KEGE AND KTEX WILL LIKELY SEE LOW
CIGS/VIS ALL DAY WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNSET.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UT AND
WESTERN CO THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD VFR AND ONLY LOCAL MTN
OBSCURATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUD CIGS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE VFR THOUGH MTN TOPS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY
     COZ001-002-006>008-011-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING BELOW 7500
     FEET FOR COZ017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 7500
     FEET FOR COZ017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING COZ010-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING
     COZ009-013-018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING COZ004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON COZ005.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON UTZ023-025.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY UTZ027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING BELOW 7500
     FEET FOR UTZ028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 7500
     FEET FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JOE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 310 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS A DEEP
AND INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WE FIND A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER JET
EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE AND ITS
CYCLOGENESIS REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL/IS SPREADING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS A VAST STRETCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WINTRY
WEATHER IS FAR REMOVED FROM THE CONDITIONS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHERE THE DEEPENING TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR WEST HAVE
ACTUALLY HELPED TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER OUR HEADS.
THE 04/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
WITH A DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 650MB. A FAIRLY MOIST
COLUMN EXISTS BENEATH THIS INVERSION.

AT THE SURFACE...A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WELL
TO OUR WEST WE FIND A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE THAT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVECTION/RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE SEA FOG ONTO THE LAND. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS THE
BEST WAY TO GO. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA-FOG AND POTENTIAL
ADVECTION ONSHORE LOOKS TO BE LATER THAN WAS SEEN MONDAY EVENING.
THE SEA-FOG HAS BEEN PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY AND WILL
NEED TO ALLOW SOME TIME FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE DIURNAL MIXING
IS DONE THIS EVENING. LAST EVENING DENSE FOG WAS ROLLING ASHORE BY
6-7 PM...WHILE THIS EVENING...THIS PROCESS IS LIKELY TO TAKE LONGER
TO OCCUR. TIMING AND FORECASTING OF DENSE FOG IN GENERAL IS...
DIFFICULT...TO SAY THE LEAST. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY BACKED THE TIMING UP BY SEVERAL HOURS TILL AT
LEAST THE LATE EVENING FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM MANATEE COUNTY
NORTHWARD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ADDITIONAL RADIATION FOG AREAS WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...AND DOWN OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. IN THE END...IT ALL ADDS
UP TO A FORECAST OF ANOTHER FOGGY MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AND
ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AS NEEDED...IF NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL BE PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH...HOWEVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE MASS FIELDS WILL STILL
DAMPEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR HEADS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE MORNING...REACHING
THE NATURE COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND BE AROUND I-4...OR JUST
SOUTH OF THERE BY SUNSET. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE OVER US ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING JUST THE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LIFT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWERS...AND ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE LACK OF REAL FORCING SUGGEST ALSO LEAVING ANY
THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT. DEPENDING ON CLOUDS/FOG...THE ATMOSPHERIC POTENTIAL IS
QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND STILL HAVE AN ABOVE NORMAL DAY
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED FOG NEAR THE COAST...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN INLAND BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...THE BIGGEST WEATHER FORECAST ISSUE FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE THE FOG. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST FLOW SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THIS DIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED ADVECTION OF SEA-FOG
ONTO COASTAL AREAS. SO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION
OF LOWERED VISIBILITIES INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SOME PORTIONS OF THE
COAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING THE FOG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER WEDNESDAY/WED EVE WILL HELP
ALLEVIATE SOME OF THESE PROLONGED FOG ISSUES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS NOT A
STRONG FRONT AND WILL NOT HAVE THE IMPACT THAT SOME OF THE FRONTS
HAD DURING PREVIOUS WEEKS. THE BIGGEST COOL DOWN WILL BE SEEN ON THE
NATURE COAST WHERE UPPER 40S TO 50S WILL BE COMMON. SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...STILL GOING WITH LOW TO MID 60S. LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER CHANCES.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...
A GENERALLY CLOUDY PATTERN FOR THURSDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING OVERHEAD. REALLY
THE ONLY THING FOUND IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BETWEEN
295-305K...AND SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITHIN THE RRQ
OF AN EAST COAST JET STREAK. BOTH OF THESE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE
WEAK...AND HENCE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. THERE IS PLENTY
OF COLUMN MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO INTERACT WITH THIS WEAK LIFT TO
SUPPORT THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NATURE
COAST...BUT RAIN FALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT ONCE AGAIN...WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY AND NIGHT JUST OVERCAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIODS...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TIMING AND POSITIONING
DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH RESPECT TO SYNOPTIC FEATURES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND PUSHES IT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BEFORE ALLOWING IT TO STALL OUT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE OTHERHAND
ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BOUNDARY STALLING OUT
THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION. THE
CANADIAN ONCE AGAIN KEEPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND AS A RESULT WILL FOLLOW A
BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
AGAIN SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS...AND WILL HANDLE THESE AGAIN WITH A BLENDED APPROACH. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT FOG TO BEGIN TO
REFORM OVER THE AREA BEGINNING BETWEEN 2Z AND 6Z WITH DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
AROUND 15Z BEFORE LIFTING. EXPECT THE UPCOMING FORECASTS TO TREND TO
MORE IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TERMINALS FROM
SRQ NORTHWARD WILL SEE VCSH BEGINNING AT 15Z AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE STATE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT BY THE LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE FREQUENTLY EXPECTED IN FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE OTHERWISE THE
ONLY MARINE CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE DENSE FOG
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CURRENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RETREAT
EASTWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AND THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND NO CRITICAL
LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOG WILL
LIKELY CONTAIN DENSE PATCHES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE SEA
FOG WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  78  61  69 /  10  40  20  40
FMY  66  82  66  80 /  10  50  40  30
GIF  65  82  60  72 /  10  50  20  40
SRQ  65  75  63  71 /  10  40  20  40
BKV  62  80  57  68 /  10  40  20  40
SPG  65  75  62  69 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AVIATION...BARREN






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 1055 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.UPDATE...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS A DEEP
AND INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WE FIND A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER JET
EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE AND IT
CYCLOGENESIS REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL/IS SPREADING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS A VAST STRETCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WINTRY
WEATHER IS FAR REMOVED FROM THE CONDITIONS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHERE THE DEEPENING TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR WEST HAVE
ACTUALLY HELPED TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER OUR HEADS. THE
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ALSO CONTINUE OUR ISSUES WITH
DENSE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG.

THE 04/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
WITH A DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 650MB. A FAIRLY MOIST
COLUMN EXISTS BENEATH THIS INVERSION.

AT THE SURFACE...A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ON THE
FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WELL TO OUR WEST WE FIND A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE THAT
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE DENSE
FOG SEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED. STILL SOME PATCHES OF
DENSER FOG AROUND PINELLAS COUNTY WITH THE FLOW OFF TAMPA BAY...BUT
EVEN THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AS WE GO INTO
THE MIDDAY HOURS. ELSEWHERE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 70S SOUTH AND 60S NORTH.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A WARM AND PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST LOOKS ON TAP FOR MOST AREAS AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS
ANTICIPATE ENOUGH TERRESTRIAL WARMING TO ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST. THIS DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ACT TO
COOL AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
AIR SOURCE IS OVER THE SHELF WATERS. HOWEVER...INLAND UPPER 70S
NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE.

THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE ADVECTION/RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
DENSE FOG. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SITUATION...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
IS THE BEST WAY TO GO. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE GENERALLY FOG
FREE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THE SEA-BREEZE AND LOSS OF
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW SEA-FOG RE-DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS...ONTO THE COAST FROM MANATEE COUNTY NORTHWARD
THROUGH PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE NATURE COAST. WITH SUNSET...AN
EXPANSION INLAND OF THIS FOG IS ANTICIPATED. TIMING AND FORECASTING
DENSE FOG IN GENERAL IS...DIFFICULT...TO SAY THE LEAST. DID A
LOGICAL PROGRESSION INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING THAT IS SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ADDITIONAL RADIATION
FOG AREAS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. IT
ALL ADDS UP TO A FORECAST OF ANOTHER FOGGY MORNING COMMUTE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AS NEEDED...IF NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL BE PASSING WELL TO OUR
NORTH...HOWEVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE MASS FIELDS WILL STILL DAMPEN
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR HEADS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE MORNING...REACHING
THE NATURE COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND BE AROUND I-4...OR JUST
SOUTH OF THERE BY SUNSET. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE OVER US ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING JUST THE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LIFT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WORKING NORTH TO
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE
SHOWERS...AND ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE LACK OF REAL FORCING
SUGGEST ALSO LEAVING ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ONCE AGAIN...THE BIGGEST WEATHER FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE FOG.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...AS
OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST FLOW SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS
DIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED ADVECTION OF SEA-FOG ONTO
COASTAL AREAS. SO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION OF
LOWERED VISIBILITIES INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SOME PORTIONS OF THE
COAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING THE FOG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP ALLEVIATE SOME OF
THESE PROLONGED FOG ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VSBY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO SET IN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT HELPING TO AGAIN SHIFT SEA FOG OVER
THE TERMINALS. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE FREQUENTLY EXPECTED IN FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE OTHERWISE THE
ONLY MARINE CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE DENSE FOG
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  67  78  63 /  10  10  40  30
FMY  86  68  83  66 /  20  10  50  20
GIF  84  66  82  63 /  20  10  40  30
SRQ  81  65  78  63 /  20  10  40  20
BKV  83  62  80  59 /  10  10  40  30
SPG  80  66  78  63 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
     GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TAMPA
     BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...BARREN






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 1040 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPANNING THE N COAST OF THE GOMEX HAS BEEN HALTED
BY THE SFC/LOW LVL HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. THE RIDGE IS GENERATING A DEEP S/SERLY FLOW ACRS
CENTRAL FL WHICH IS TAPPING A MOIST LOW LVL AIRMASS OVER THE NRN
BAHAMAS AND THE FL STRAITS. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES UPSTREAM
H100-H85 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 75-90PCT. PWATS BTWN 1.2"-1.3" OFF THE
MORNING RAOB MAY APPEAR ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
IS TRAPPED BLOW A TIGHT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H70-H50 LYR.

DYNAMICALLY SPEAKING...THE AIRMASS IS RATHER TORPID WITH NO SIG MID
LVL VORTICITY/UPR LVL DIVERGENCE NOTED ACRS THE REGION. H85-H70
LAPSE RATES OVER SW FL APPROACHING AN IMPRESSIVE 8C/KM...BUT ARE
TRAPPED UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND COLOCATED
WITH THE A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY LOW LVL AIR WITH MEAN RH VALUES
BLO 70PCT. FURTHERMORE...STREAMLINE ANALYSIS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR
SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W FL PENINSULA THIS AFTN.

HI MOISTURE THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WILL REQUIRE SOME MENTION OF
PRECIP AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SRLY FLOW HELPS PUSH AFTN TEMPS
INTO THE L/M80S WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE M/U60S. HOWEVER...THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL REQUIRE BOUNDARY INTERACTION TO SPARK ANY
SHRA ACTIVITY...AND THE PREVAILING DEEP SRLY FLOW DOES NOT SUPPORT A
SEABREEZE MERGER. RADAR HAS PICKED UP BRIEF ISOLD SHRAS ALONG THE
COAST AND DOWNWIND OF THE NRN BAHAMAS...BUT NEITHER RADAR NOR SAT
TRENDS SUGGEST ANYTHING MORE THAN THIS LATER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
N OF KISM-KDAB: S/SE SFC WND BLO 8KTS BCMG S/SW AFT 05/06Z. THRU
04/16Z...AREAS IFR/LCL LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FG AND LOW STRATUS BCMG
VFR. BTWN 04/16Z-05/03Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. AFT 05/08Z...PTCHY
MVFR/LCL IFR VSBYS IN BR.

S OF KISM-KDAB: E/SE SFC WND AOB 10KTS. THRU 04/17Z...AREAS MVFR
CIGS BTWN FL015-025 WITH BRIEF ISOLD IFR SHRAS. BTWN
04/17Z-05/00Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. AFT 05/08Z...PTCHY MVFR/LCL IFR
VSBYS IN BR W OF KTIX-KOBE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE KEEPING THE RIDGE
OF THE SFC/LOW LVL ATLC TROF SUPPRESSED OVER THE S HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS OVERALL AS DATA BUOYS/C-MAN
NETWORK REPORTING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SERLY BREEZE WITH SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE...3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH DOMINANT PDS ARND 10SEC AREAWIDE.
WINDS OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE 15-20KT
RANGE THIS AFTN AS A RELATIVELY TIGHT PGRAD IS LURKING OVER THE
BAHAMA BANK/GREATER ANTILLES...BUT OVERALL NO SIG CHANGES EXPECTED
AS THE FRONT TO THE N APPEARS TO HAVE MADE ITS FURTHEST PENETRATION.
WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABV LATEST OBS...BUT
SUSPECT AN ERLY BACKGROUND SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN
THE OPEN ATLANTIC...UP TO 4FT NEARSHORE AND 5FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW...

                  TUE 2/4   WED 2/5
DAYTONA BEACH     87/1990   86/1989
ORLANDO (MCO)     86/1990   87/1982
MELBOURNE         86/1990   87/2011
VERO BEACH        87/1989   86/1986

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 1223 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION... BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AND RURAL AREAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWSTORM STILL
LOOKS ON TARGET FOR OUR AREA... THOUGH BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RAP FCSTS SUSPECT ONSET MAY BE DELAYED A
BIT. LOWERED HOURLY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTN TO
REFLECT THIS BUT OVERALL THIS HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
WITH SNOW STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA BY 7PM.
12Z MODELS... ESPECIALLY THE NAM... HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LITTLE
MORE INTENSE SYSTEM WITH HIGHER QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS. IN GENERAL
THIS TREND IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN GOING GRIDS WITH POTENTIAL
6-10INCHES OVER SE PORTION OF THE CWA TAPERING OFF TO 3-6 INCHES
NW, SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO SNOWFALL ACCUMS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

ENTIRE FOCUS ON UPGRADE/HEADLINE DELINEATION THIS AM. INITIAL
CONCERN REVOLVED AROUND DOWNTREND IN QPF ESPCLY NAM AS EVENT
DRAWS NIGH. CROSS CHECK OF MODEL SIGNALS HOWEVER CONT TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST LOW END WARNING EVENT FOR ALL BUT FAR NWRN QUARTER OR SO
OF CWA...WITH ADDNL FACTORS SUCH AS...AM COMMUTE/BLSN/DRIFTING TO
LIKELY PROVIDE UPTICK/EXTENSION OF IMPACTS. OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT
BTWN SREF MEAN AND NAM COBB OUTPUT...WITH TREND FOCUSING WIDE BAND
ROUGHLY ALONG/SE OF 24 CORRIDOR. COLLOCATION OF STATIC
INSTABILITY/SATURATED DGZ/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY POCKETS
ALOFT...AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACRS FAR SERN CAN GTE 180 KTS
THIS EVENING TO LIKELY AID IN FGEN RESPONSE WITH BANDED TRANSIENT
ENHANCEMENTS THIS EVENING INTO ERLY TONIGHT. WEAK TROWAL SIGNATURE
AT I290K WITH TRANSITORY AGEO VERT CIRCULATION ENHANCEMENTS PER
TIME/HGHT XSCTIONS SUGGEST FOCUSED BANDING WSW-ENE WELL NW OF
COMMA HEAD OCCLUSAL. ADDITIONALLY...IMR/GARCIA METHODOLOGY
SUPPORTS FULL STEAM AHEAD AS GENEROUS 4 G/KG ON I290K SFC PIVOTS
THROUGH FAR SERN CWA IN 03-09 UTC WED TIMEFRAME WITH 3 G/KG
CONSISTENTLY INTO ROUTE 24 CORRIDOR DURING SAME TIMEFRAME. PWAT
VALUES OF 2SD ABOVE NORMAL PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT BULK MSTR ESPCLY
IN CONSIDERATION OF COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOME INIT CONCERN WRT
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THIS
TO BE RATHER WEAK/QUITE SHALLOW...RESULTING IN A SHORT
LIVED/BASICALLY A 60-90 MINUTE DLAY OF SNOWFALL ONSET AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVHD/STREWN E-W THROUGH SRN GRTLKS RGN...RATHER THAN
LAKE HUR/SRN ONT THAT COULD BE QUITE EROSIVE. GIVEN MESOSCALE
POTNL/MAGNITUDE OF MSTR/DEEP LYR MFLUX CONVERGENCE...WL ERR A BIT
TO HIR SIDE 6-10 SERN THIRD TIERED TO 3-6 FAR NWRN IN ADV...WITH
LESSER 5-8 ACCUM/WARNING SECTION IN BTWN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT  455 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA THIS PERIOD AS CROSS POLAR FLOW CONTINUES. NOTHING TO
BREAK THIS COLD PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT LIMITED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW
AMOUNTS LIGHT. FOR NOW...LEFT LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR A NUMBER OF
PERIODS THIS WEEKEND...BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REFINE THE TIMING BETTER. OTHERWISE...HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN MOST
PERIODS IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN GEM. ONE THIRD
OF THE DAYS AT FT WAYNE SO FAR THIS YEAR HAVE HAD LOWS BELOW
ZERO...SO THE LATEST GFS/MEX MOS WITH MOST LOWS AROUND ZERO TO -9
APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO 12Z TAFS. DELAYED START OF SNOW AT FWA
SLIGHTLY... BUT STILL EXPECT MODERATE SNOW FALLING BY THIS EVE.
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST
CONDITIONS... HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMS AT FWA. SNOW IN DEFORMATION
ZONE AS LOW MOVES AWAY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING AND
COMBINED WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS HELP KEEP VSBYS IN IFR RANGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     INZ005>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     INZ003-004.

MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ079>081.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 1213 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

The 12z data and RAP 2 to 5 degrees too warm at the surface (18z
verification) across west KY. They are OK north and west of the
Ohio. Initial push of precip into west KY with diabatic processes in
play resulting in snow and sleet initially. After that process is
finished, we should transition more toward the overall advertisement
of snow/sleet NW, sleet freezing rain central, rain (wintry mix
possible) SE that we`ve had going.

For now, from Murray over to KHOP, have an SPS out as even there,
travel conditions may be hazardous. Just received a report as the
time of this writing, that roads conditions were not good. An
upgrade to an advisory may be required for this afternoon.

The main focus this afternoon will be on amounts given the
adjustments in QPF rest of today and into this evening.

..Noles..

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for significant snow and
ice accumulations later today into tonight. As a result, a Winter
Storm Warning will be issued shortly to include the entire Quad
State region of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest
Indiana, and all of western Kentucky with the exception of
Calloway, Trigg, Christian, and Todd counties.

A storm system over the southern Rockies was moving east into the
southern Plains early this morning. This energy will rapidly shift
east into the mid Mississippi valley by tonight. The combination of
a saturating atmosphere with increased forcing for lift will cause
precipitation developing over the central and southern Plains to
move into the forecast area later today. The precipitation will
impact mainly southeast Missouri by late morning, then spread
across the rest of the area during the afternoon. Precipitation
will persist into the early evening before tapering off by late
evening and overnight from west to east.

There are still some subtle differences in forecast models with
respect to the temperature profile. This is normally not a big
issue, but with the presence of the freezing line right through
the Heartland, it is a very big deal today. Forecast models have
continued the cooling trend noted yesterday and are now indicating
that more snow and sleet will occur further south.

Forecast thermal profiles indicate mainly snow with some sleet
along and north of a line from roughly Poplar Bluff to Paducah to
Owensboro. In this area, generally 3 to 5 inches of snow is
forecast during the event.

Mainly rain is still forecast south of a line from Mayfield to
Greenville Kentucky. With the existing snow and ice cover in this
area, the forecast of about 1 inch of rain may result in some
minor flooding issues as normal water flow may be blocked or
diverted due to the ice and snow cover.

In between, a band of freezing rain and sleet appears probable.
This zone would encompass communities from New Madrid to Calvert
City and Madisonville. In this area, up to one quarter inch of ice
accretion is possible. The delineations between precipitation
types may need to be shifted north or south as the winter weather
event evolves.

My greatest concern with the current forecast is the precipitation
type over far southern sections of western Kentucky near the
Tennessee border. Even the coldest model guidance continues to
suggest that temperatures in this area will climb above freezing
by this afternoon, and rain will be the result. However, given the
existing snow and ice cover, if temperatures are not able to make
it above the freezing mark, a substantial icing event cannot be
ruled out. This is likely a last minute adjustment that we will
need to make later today as we get a better handle on exactly how
warm temperatures will be.

The main core of precipitation will exit the area by midnight, but
some light snow or freezing drizzle will be possible through early
Wednesday. For this reason, we have decided to extend the Winter
Storm Warning through 6 AM Wednesday. Light snow showers or
flurries will be possible on Wednesday in the wrap-around moisture
on the back side of the departing storm. Expect a trend towards
clearing Wednesday night with a return to those frigid temperatures
that we`ve come to adore this winter...or not.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

No rest for the weary in the long term portion of the forecast.
Unfortunately models not in good agreement on the timing, track,
QPF, etc. associated with the multiple weather features forecast to
affect our CWA during the period.

Thursday should be dry and cold as arctic high pressure builds
across the region. Thursday night models show high pressure centered
directly over the region but bring an almost indiscernible upper
level disturbance across the area with limited moisture. With the
exception of the NAM12 and the ECMWF, the rest of the models keep it
dry, but just in case there are a few flurries will keep schc pops
over the western and northwest sections.

With no upper level support and the arctic high pressure still the
dominant weather feature over the Ohio valley, Friday should be dry
and cold. Better chances for precipitation enter the forecast Friday
night as an approaching short wave interacts with decent moisture to
produce light snow across the area. The Canadian/ECMWF are similar
with this feature but the GFS keeps it dry. If it does snow,
accumulations should be light.

Depending on what model you look at, snow may linger into Saturday,
or not. With there being so much model disagreement decided to just
go with a schc pop. Precipitation type should be all snow with the
exception of the southern Pennyrile region of west Kentucky where
there could be a rain/snow mix. Any snow accumulation should be
light.

Right now the highest pops during the period are Saturday night.
During this period the GFS and Canadian are dry with upper level
moisture and precipitation to the north and west of our CWA. The
ECMWF brings a sharp short wave with one to two tenths of an inch of
QPF across the region which would be in the form of snow with small
accumulations possible. Just in case the ECMWF is too fast, lowered
pops a tad but kept chc pops everywhere.

Ironically enough, the GFS and Canadian bring that same short wave
and moisture across our area on Sunday, so just in case their
solutions pan out, went with schc pops which should again be all
snow with little to no accumulation.

Beyond that arctic high pressure should keep the region dry and
cold. Temperatures throughout the period will remain well below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

All sites should remain VFR through 18z, with conditions slowly
deteriorating from west to east to MVFR with a mixture of
FZRA/PL/SN, and eventually IFR with a continued mixture of
FZRA/PL/SN. Winds will continue out of the northeast aob 10 knots
through 06-07Z, then switching around to the northwest aob 10 knots.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR KYZ001>008-010-
     011-013>016-018>021.

&&

$$











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 1056 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

One of the most difficult forecasts had to deal with in some time.
Latest NAM and RAP data suggesting warmer air into west KY by this
afternoon with a transition to rain...and more of a wintry mix
north and west of the Ohio vs. snow. GFS, while slightly "warmer"
is still the coolest solution (all 12z data). We are seeing mainly
snow over the Ozark foothill region at this time with some sleet.
Sleet was reported along the KY/TN state line into the Murray
area. Initially, diabatic processes will help determine precip
type. Should be mainly a wintry mix / snow.

We are not going to change the Winter Storm Warning at this time.
The southern counties in the Warning are in question if the warmer
solutions pan out. For now, we are shifting the precip type and
amounts more toward what we were looking at yesterday. Once the
precip starts and establishes a baseline for temperatures, we can
watch the trajectories and advection processes near the surface.
Am concerned amount decent icing somewhere of 1/4" or more and
sleet 1/2" or more. Cannot rule out the 4 inch or so (isolated higher)
snow amounts across the NW 1/3 of the area, with some sleet
accumulation possible as well. Mainly rain by afternoon and early
evening near the TN state line (may have to adjust that NW if the
warmer models are correct). The latest model QPF has shifted the
heavy axis farther west. If need be, we will up the wintry precip
amounts. The WSW has been transmitted. The grids have been
updated. Will continue to monitor.

..Noles..

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for significant snow and
ice accumulations later today into tonight. As a result, a Winter
Storm Warning will be issued shortly to include the entire Quad
State region of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest
Indiana, and all of western Kentucky with the exception of
Calloway, Trigg, Christian, and Todd counties.

A storm system over the southern Rockies was moving east into the
southern Plains early this morning. This energy will rapidly shift
east into the mid Mississippi valley by tonight. The combination of
a saturating atmosphere with increased forcing for lift will cause
precipitation developing over the central and southern Plains to
move into the forecast area later today. The precipitation will
impact mainly southeast Missouri by late morning, then spread
across the rest of the area during the afternoon. Precipitation
will persist into the early evening before tapering off by late
evening and overnight from west to east.

There are still some subtle differences in forecast models with
respect to the temperature profile. This is normally not a big
issue, but with the presence of the freezing line right through
the Heartland, it is a very big deal today. Forecast models have
continued the cooling trend noted yesterday and are now indicating
that more snow and sleet will occur further south.

Forecast thermal profiles indicate mainly snow with some sleet
along and north of a line from roughly Poplar Bluff to Paducah to
Owensboro. In this area, generally 3 to 5 inches of snow is
forecast during the event.

Mainly rain is still forecast south of a line from Mayfield to
Greenville Kentucky. With the existing snow and ice cover in this
area, the forecast of about 1 inch of rain may result in some
minor flooding issues as normal water flow may be blocked or
diverted due to the ice and snow cover.

In between, a band of freezing rain and sleet appears probable.
This zone would encompass communities from New Madrid to Calvert
City and Madisonville. In this area, up to one quarter inch of ice
accretion is possible. The delineations between precipitation
types may need to be shifted north or south as the winter weather
event evolves.

My greatest concern with the current forecast is the precipitation
type over far southern sections of western Kentucky near the
Tennessee border. Even the coldest model guidance continues to
suggest that temperatures in this area will climb above freezing
by this afternoon, and rain will be the result. However, given the
existing snow and ice cover, if temperatures are not able to make
it above the freezing mark, a substantial icing event cannot be
ruled out. This is likely a last minute adjustment that we will
need to make later today as we get a better handle on exactly how
warm temperatures will be.

The main core of precipitation will exit the area by midnight, but
some light snow or freezing drizzle will be possible through early
Wednesday. For this reason, we have decided to extend the Winter
Storm Warning through 6 AM Wednesday. Light snow showers or
flurries will be possible on Wednesday in the wrap-around moisture
on the back side of the departing storm. Expect a trend towards
clearing Wednesday night with a return to those frigid temperatures
that we`ve come to adore this winter...or not.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

No rest for the weary in the long term portion of the forecast.
Unfortunately models not in good agreement on the timing, track,
QPF, etc. associated with the multiple weather features forecast to
affect our CWA during the period.

Thursday should be dry and cold as arctic high pressure builds
across the region. Thursday night models show high pressure centered
directly over the region but bring an almost indiscernible upper
level disturbance across the area with limited moisture. With the
exception of the NAM12 and the ECMWF, the rest of the models keep it
dry, but just in case there are a few flurries will keep schc pops
over the western and northwest sections.

With no upper level support and the arctic high pressure still the
dominant weather feature over the Ohio valley, Friday should be dry
and cold. Better chances for precipitation enter the forecast Friday
night as an approaching short wave interacts with decent moisture to
produce light snow across the area. The Canadian/ECMWF are similar
with this feature but the GFS keeps it dry. If it does snow,
accumulations should be light.

Depending on what model you look at, snow may linger into Saturday,
or not. With there being so much model disagreement decided to just
go with a schc pop. Precipitation type should be all snow with the
exception of the southern Pennyrile region of west Kentucky where
there could be a rain/snow mix. Any snow accumulation should be
light.

Right now the highest pops during the period are Saturday night.
During this period the GFS and Canadian are dry with upper level
moisture and precipitation to the north and west of our CWA. The
ECMWF brings a sharp short wave with one to two tenths of an inch of
QPF across the region which would be in the form of snow with small
accumulations possible. Just in case the ECMWF is too fast, lowered
pops a tad but kept chc pops everywhere.

Ironically enough, the GFS and Canadian bring that same short wave
and moisture across our area on Sunday, so just in case their
solutions pan out, went with schc pops which should again be all
snow with little to no accumulation.

Beyond that arctic high pressure should keep the region dry and
cold. Temperatures throughout the period will remain well below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

All sites should remain VFR through 18z, with conditions slowly
deteriorating from west to east to MVFR with a mixture of
FZRA/PL/SN, and eventually IFR with a continued mixture of
FZRA/PL/SN. Winds will continue out of the northeast aob 10 knots
through 06-07Z, then switching around to the northwest aob 10 knots.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR KYZ001>008-010-
     011-013>016-018>021.

&&

$$









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 359 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...PUSHING
A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1034 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK CAD RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ALOFT, WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...HEADED TOWARDS IN/IL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP HAS CAPTURED
TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WELL...AND FORECAST FOR THE EVENING
WILL HAVE A SIMILAR FLAVOR AS BEST LIFT (290-300K ISENTROPIC SFC)
SLIPS NORTH. GENERALLY, SHRAS WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VA/INTERIOR NE NC THROUGH 23Z OR SO, WITH BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE HEADED
TOWARDS RIC/EZF AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. INITIALLY, BEST MOISTURE IS
IN THE SUB-CLOUD LYR, WITH DRIER AIR REMAINING ALOFT. THUS, EXPECT
RAIN TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SPOTTY DZ EARLY ON...BECOMING MORE
STEADY AS LIFT IMPROVES LATER ON IN THE EVENING. PCPN ENDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, THOUGH EXPECT PATCHY DZ TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS LLVLS REMAIN MOIST. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE VA INTO NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN OH VLY AND WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT BEST LIFT TO CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES
IN THE NW FLIRT WITH ANY FZRA POTENTIAL (WHICH WILL LIE JUST NW OF
OUR CWA BORDERS). MINIMA WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED EARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING STEADY THEN SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.
ACROSS THE NORTH, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY SHUNTING THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE A
130-150KT JET STREAK WILL KEEP BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, EXPECT ENOUGH UVM/FGEN FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE LIKELY SHOWERS COINCIDING WITH THE
FROPA. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, RETURN
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. SREF PROBS SHOWING 50-60% CHC OF MLCAPE VALUES REACHING
500 J/KG...SO EXPECT EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS FAR SE ZONES. COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
(THOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT).
REGARDLESS, CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE COULD BRING
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WED AFTN.

CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE QUICKLY W-E BY AFTERNOON...AS DOWNSLOPE WNW
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SCOURS OUT MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE...LOW 50S NW...TO MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE SE. STORM TOTAL QPF WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH (UP TO
ONE HALF INCH) AND ALONG THE COAST (BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH).
LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

STRONG 1042+MB HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, SHUNTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FARTHER
OFFSHORE AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ENSUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. DRY WX IS EXPECTED THU/FRI AS SFC HI PRES BRIEFLY
SLIDES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPR 30S OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE TO THE LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG SFC HI PRES
CENTERED OVR THE OH VALLEY AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOCUS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
TRAVERSING THE CONUS AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES DEVELOPMENT OVR THE
ERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND. DID DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NGT THRU SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THIS WILL MSTLY BE A PLAIN RAIN EVENT...WITH SFC TEMPS AND
TEMPS ALOFT SUGGESTING SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MAY BE PSBL
ESPECIALLY NORTH/WEST OF RIC AT THE VERY ONSET OF THE PRECIP...AND
AT THE END AS THICKNESSES CRASH. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN...WITH AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES PSBL FRI NGT THRU SUN NGT. TEMPS FRI
THRU SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 40S TO LWR
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK OF 600-2000 FT AGL WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
FARTHER INLAND FROM THE COAST TODAY WHILE CTRL VA STAYS RELATIVELY
CLOUD-FREE. THIS ALL ENDS AFTER 05/0000Z TONIGHT AS LOW CIGS
(ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT) LIFT NORTH FROM THE SE STATES TWD
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THIS TIME AND OVERSPREAD
THE REGION BY 05/0600Z. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE PRECIP
AND WARM FRONT WILL LOWER CIGS TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND WILL ALSO
LOWER VISIBILITIES TO ROUGHLY 2SM...POSSIBLY DOWN TO 1SM DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NW OF
THE REGION ON WED...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WED
AFTN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN
WITH SHOWERS EXITING THE COAST BY EARLY WED EVENING. SOLID
OVERCAST SKIES BEGIN TO BREAK UP BEHIND THE FROPA AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WED NIGHT/THU. POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NNW.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...PERSISTENT N-NE WINDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM CAPE
HENRY TO CURRITUCK LIGHT HAS WARRANTED AN EXTENSION TO ONGOING SCA
DUE TO SEAS OF 5-7 FT BEING SLOW TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTN. SCA FOR SRN
COASTAL WATERS IS NOW SET TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM EST TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCAS WILL RMN SLO TO COME DOWN THROUGH THE
MRNG HRS AS NNE WNDS SLO TO DIMINISH. SEAS ON THE OCN WILL TAKE
LONGEST TO SUBSIDE (TO BLO SCA - 5FT)...ESP S OF CAPE CHARLES LGT.
A WARM FRONT TO LIFT N OF THE WTRS TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS
BECOMING S. SFC LO PRES MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MDATLC STATES WED MRNG...THEN CONTS TO THE E WED AFTN...PUSHING A
CDFNT ACRS THE WTRS BY WED EVE. ANOTHER OF SCAS XPCD
TNGT/WED...ESP OVR THE OCN...AS SPEEDS INCRS FM THE SSW (AND SEAS
BUILD TO 5FT)...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINE W/
THE ONE ONGOING ATTM. WINDS SHIFT TO NW WED NGT W/ LO LVL CAD
PTNTTLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDS. SFC HI PRES THEN RETURNS THU
THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ALB/BMD
MARINE...ALB/BMD










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1240 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO
MANITOBA AND SRN SASK AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTING IN WSW
MID/UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...WEAK NW TO N FLOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY INTO ERN UPPER MI AND CNTRL WI.
TO THE WEST...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
THERE WAS ENOUGH TO MOISTURE BELOW THE 4K FT INVERSION FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN ONTARIO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN UPPER MI. WITH 850
MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C...RADAR INDICATED SOME LIGHT LES FROM
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING WHERE GAPS IN THE ICE COVER WERE PRESENT.

TODAY...SINCE A WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ANY ADDITIONAL LES IS EXPECTED WILL BE
DISORGANIZED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INTO THE NE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE LARGER REMAINING AREA OF OPEN WATER. SOME
FLURRIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING
DOWNWIND OF ANOTHER LIMITED STRETCH OF OPEN WATER.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND ACYC NRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN ONTARIO AND A LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. EVEN WITH LIMITED HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE MOSTLY
ICE COVERED LAKE...SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OR
MUNISING WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST
WITH READINGS FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. OVER THE WEST...TEMPS COULD
STILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -10 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN POSSIBLY SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE
MOST PART...RAN WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHICH
LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST FOR PRECIP. WHILE STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP MAY BE ON WED AS SOME HIGHER RES MODELS
INDICATE NNW LES OVER ERN ALGER AND NRN LUCE COUNTIES FROM THE MORE
OPEN WATERS OF FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT NOT SURE EXACTLY WHAT THE
EXTENT AND LOCATION OF THE BEST LES MAY BE. ALSO...WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS A RESULT OF INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR OVER NWRN UPPER MI. A SLOW AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

WITH A CHILLY UPSLOPE NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR DEVELOPING...EXPECT
PREDOMINANT HIGH END MVFR TO DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD TO SAW TO LOWER TO HIGH END
MVFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT DRAWS LAKE
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUEPRIOR AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND WHEN A LOW MOVES THROUGH HUDSON BAY...COULD SEE WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 30KTS ON THURSDAY. WITH MUCH OF THE LAKE ICE
COVERED...SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CONCERN FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A
POCKET OF OPEN WATER NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND MARAIS MICHIGAN WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 320 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014

No changes will be made to going warnings/advisories with some
minor changes to snowfall amounts, mainly to account for incoming
reports. The snow spread into the eastern counties this afternoon
with some minor accumulations reported in Fayette county. Some
sleet was reported mixing in with the snow down in Fredericktown
around 1230 pm and more recently in Maeystown in Monroe county
Illinois. Still expect this mix to continue over southeast
Missouri into south central Illinois into mid evening based on
most recent RAP soundings.

To the north and west, moderate to occasionally heavy snow continues
across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois
where visibilities at the observation sites remain in the 1/4 to 1/2
mile range.  Latest runs of the HRRR and RAP show that the
deformation zone will continue to produce accumulating snow over the
warning area of into late tonight before the deformation zone lifts
out of the area.  Just to the south, snow has been falling since
late morning over parts of southeast and east central Missouri,
though pockets of dry air in the lower atmosphere has hampered it`s
eastward progress.  Now dry air is moving in from the southwest
which will begin to cut down on snowfall rates.  Have left freezing
drizzle in overnight over the southern half of the CWA overnight has
deep ascent moves out leaving some low level ascent in deep
moisture.  Still do not expected there to be enough ice accretion to
include any mention at this point.  Also left area of blowing and
drifting snow in the warning area late tonight where the winds will
pick of late tonight.  System will lift out of the area early on
Wednesday.  Have just a chance of snow over northeastern half of the
CWA on Wednesday morning.

Went on the cooler side of guidance tonight and tomorrow for
temperatures where the deeper snow cover will be.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2014

The upper flow will deamplify in the wake of the current storm
system with a more progressive flow featuring broad troffing
dominating through at least the end of the week. This will assist
the expansive 1040+ mb Arctic high building into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. The biggest issue during this time
frame is the temperatures. There is quite a range in the MOS with
much of the model 2m temperatures siding with the colder MAV.
Given the amount of fresh snow cover that will reside across the
CWA have sided towards the colder numbers even though ideal
radiational cooling conditions (i.e. light winds) won`t exist in
this time frame. The low ambient air temperatures and even modest
wind will result in dangerous bitterly cold wind chills of -15 to
-25 late Wednesday night-Thursday morning generally along and
north of I-70. Collaboration with surrounding offices resulted in
holding off on wind chill headlines, but these will ultimately be
needed and likely issued once the current storm exits. We will
continue to hammer the message of this bitter cold in the
remainder of our produce suite.

The Arctic high will shift quickly eastward on Thursday night-Friday
night due to the progressive flow. There will also be a good deal of
cloudiness within this flow that will create some havoc with
temperatures and lead to lower confidence in the mins on Thursday
night/Friday morning. We have been carrying some low pops on Thursday
night and I have kept some low/slight chance pops in the forecast
generally along and south of I-70. The NAM, local WRF, and SREF all
show some light QPF associated with a weak impulse in the flow aloft
and attendant weak WAA/lift, while the NAMX and other models dry up
any precipitation as it attempts to spread east from the
southern/central Plains.

The forecast for this weekend is still highly questionable with a
good deal of uncertainty. Model continuity and agreement has been
quite poor and the general pattern the models were showing yesterday
with an amplifying upper trof/low moving through the
southern/central Plains into the lower/mid MS valley region is no
longer present. The general solution today is less amplified overall
and shifted north, with any advertised upper low now over Iowa on
Saturday night. Our forecast represents a multi-model blend with
greater weighting towards the ECMWF and CMC GEM. This would suggest
potential for 2 waves of snow - the first would be a chance of snow
area-wide Friday night due to a lead progressive wave and attendant
WAA, and then another chance Saturday/Saturday night more focused
across the northern CWA associated with the more northern upper
trof/low. Yet another shortwave within the progressive flow could
bring a chance of snow late Monday night-Tuesday. One thing that we
have high confidence in for the extended forecast is that the cold
weather will persist through early next week with a continuation of
below average temperatures.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2014

Winter storm impacting the area will produce widespread IFR flight
conditions this afternoon through tonight. A wedge of dry air
along the I-70 corridor in Illinois and down the I-44 corridor in
Missouri is keeping too much snow from developing in those areas,
but I expect it to fill in over the next 2 hours or so. After the
snow begins, expect IFR flight conditions to prevail in light to
moderate snow at least through the evening. Will likely see some
improvement after 06z from southwest to northeast as the storm
lifts northeast away from the region.

Specifics for KSTL:

IFR flight conditions will prevail at Lambert this afternoon into
tonight as a winter storm impacts the region. Snow is having a
little trouble developing initially due to a wedge of dry air over
the STL area. This wedge should fill in over the next hour or so
and I expect snow to continue through tonight. Atmospheric lift is
quite strong so heavier bands of snow with VSBYS down below
alternate minimums is likely. Intensity should slacken this evening
but I think IFR flight conditions will continue through most of
the night.


Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
     Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
     MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Adams IL-Brown
     IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 950 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY
FROM THE NORTH... AS A FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: EARLIER FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO A SLOWER ONSET TIME
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT-DRIVEN LIGHT RAIN STILL LOOKS GOOD. LATEST
SURFACE MAP SHOWS A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER LK ONTARIO NOSING
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN IS JUST NOW EDGING INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL NC... AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEADILY EXPAND NORTHWARD AS THE STRENGTHENING WINDS
ALOFT LEAD TO INCREASED OVERRUNNING AND DEEPENING MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY (CLEARLY EVIDENT ON THE 12Z 925 MB ANALYSIS
ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR NRN SC) AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WILL FOLLOW THE
TIMING OF THE LATEST RAP MODEL... SHOWING HIGH POPS (BUT FAIRLY LOW
TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... WITH BEST COVERAGE FOCUSING ON THE FAR WRN CWA WHERE
THE WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST YIELDING THE MORE INTENSE
UPGLIDE. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 64 PRIOR TO 3 PM... WITH A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH VERY EARLY
EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS RIGHT NEAR THE VA BORDER THIS
MORNING... THE ENTIRE CWA WILL REMAIN BENEATH OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY... ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS AT LEAST INITIALLY WILL BE THIN (AS
SEEN ON AMDAR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING)... ALLOWING AT LEAST
SOME INSOLATION. STILL ON TRACK TO REACH HIGHS OF 40-45... COOLEST
SW AND WARMEST NW AND FAR NORTH. -GIH

TONIGHT: THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...BUT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE SATURATED HYBRID CAD
LAYER LOWERS. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE PROBABLE...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S - A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF JUST 2-5 DEGREES FROM EARLIER
HIGHS. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
ENSURE THE WARM FRONT WILL HOLD TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...DESPITE WHAT
THE NWP GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) SUGGESTS. IN FACT...IT IS
QUITE PROBABLE THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL NEVER GET INTO CENTRAL NC
EVEN ON WED...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW. -MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WITH THE WEDGE HANGING ON IN THE
MORNING...A WEAK LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...USHERED ALONG QUICKLY BY A 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS NC ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE TIMING BECOMING A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE PARENT LOW
RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE FRONT TO LINGER BEHIND. THE
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO KNOCK OUT THE WEDGE
BUT IT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY...AND THUS KEEPING
HIGH TEMPERATURES A LOT LOWER IN THE NW. BEST TIMING AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE AFTER 21Z IN THE TRIAD AND LATER IN THE EVENING FOR
FAYETTEVILLE AND POINTS EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO SET UP A LARGER
DISPARITY IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
HAVING MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE COASTAL FRONT. UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
IN THE NW (AND THIS IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT...REALLY
FEEL LIKE THESE TEMPS COULD BE A LOT LOWER IF THE WEDGE HOLDS IN.)
FOR HIGHS WITH LOW 70S IN THE SE. A WIDESPREAD QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
QPF CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER
TO UPPER 30S NW TO SE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...AND WHILE THE HIGH IS VERY STRONG AT 1042
MB IT IS VERY FAR AWAY...OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START BEFORE
BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY AND MAX TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A WEAK HYBRID DAMMING SCENARIO WILL SET UP
FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL IN GENERAL...LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO NEAR 50 IN THE SE.
WINDS WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S
NW TO SE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS VARYING
WIDELY IN SPACE AND TIME. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE VERY UNSETTLED WITH SOME FORM OF LOW OR LOWS MOVING THROUGH
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THE 00Z RUN SLOWING THINGS
DOWN AND BRINING A MILLER B TYPE SCENARIO THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS SPED THINGS UP
AND HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NOT ONE BUT TWO MILLER A TYPE
LOWS FOLLOWING EACH OTHER. THE FIRST PASSING ALONG THE NC COAST ON
SATURDAY AND A SECOND DOING THE SAME SUNDAY EVENING. WPC IS FAVORING
A SOLUTION LET BY THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
LOW CITING ONLY A LITTLE BIT BETTER CONTINUITY OVERALL. WITH
SPECIFICS VERY MUCH IN DOUBT AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
MAINLY LIQUID AS SUGGESTED BY THICKNESS VALUES. WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS PRECIP BEING OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...IF GFS
SOLUTIONS IS CORRECT...THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN ISSUES IN
THE TRIAD BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HIGHS DURING
THIS TIME IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S SATURDAY AND LOW TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR
HIGHS WITH NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...
OWING TO RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST UPGLIDING
ATOP CHILLY AND MOIST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...RESULTING IN COLD AIR DAMMING. THE CEILINGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/JUST BELOW 1000 FT...BETWEEN 13-16Z...BUT OCCURRENCE
SEEMS TOO SHORT-LIVED OR REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...
THE UPGLIDING FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CLOUD LAYER TO DEEPEN SUCH THAT
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
TODAY...BEFORE TAPERING TO DRIZZLE WITH LOWERING OVERCAST AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS INTO LIFR-IFR RANGE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PROBABLE LATE TO NIGHT-EARLY WED...AS THE WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ACCELERATE TO BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.

OUTLOOK: THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IN COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
IMPROVE ON WED...FIRST AT KFAY AND KRWI WHERE THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT BY MIDDAY WILL RESULT IN LIFTING/SCATTERING TO MVFR-
VFR...FOLLOWED BY THE AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST THAT WILL SCOUR THE DAMP COLD AIR DAMMING AIR MASS AND
BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO DRY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHEAST US COAST MAY
PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON FRI...PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/MWS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...MWS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1255 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS POINT TO THE FORECAST. DID
TWEAK THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. WILL BE MAKING DECISIONS LATER TODAY AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT TO ADD NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES TO ANY SORT OF ADVISORY
HEADLINES...AND WHETHER OR NOT TO LEAVE CURRENT ADVISORIES HOISTED
IN OHIO...OR MAKE CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE GET RID OF ONE MESSY SYSTEM 24 HOURS AGO...AND STILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH ITS AFTER EFFECTS FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL FROM
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT...IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION OFF THE SURFACE. NEVER A GOOD COMBINATION.

FIRST...LOW LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A SHARP CUT OFF MAINLY JUST
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS HAS WREAKED HAVOC WITH THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS AREAS IN THE CLEAR...SUCH AS ATHENS...BOTTOMED OUT UNDER
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DROPPED INTO THE LOWER
TEENS...WHILE UNDER THE STRATUS...IT COULD NOT DROP OUT OF THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS ALSO ENVELOPED THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH
BKW IN THEM MOST OF THE NIGHT. RAP SUGGESTING THIS WILL BE NOT BE IN
A HURRY TO EXIT TODAY...AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE LAST
EVENING...WILL LIKELY NEED TO PUSH THE ENDING TIME OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER INTO THE DAY AS THE MODELS TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHAT
TO DO WITH THIS MOISTURE. IN TERMS OF SKY COVERAGE...THERE WILL
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE HOWEVER...AS WE ARE ALREADY SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND SHOULD BE OVERCAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...AND HAVE KEPT THE TIMING AHEAD OF THE
MODELS AS IS COMMON WITH THESE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ORIGINATING
STORMS. NOW COMES THE FUN OF DETERMINING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MOS GUIDANCE FROM ANY MODEL WAS LARGELY USELESS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...AND FELT THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...SNOW  PACK AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL STIFF ARM
THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO EVENTUALLY SCOUR
OUT THE COOL AIR. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND INTO THE
PLEASANTS AND TYLER COUNTY AREAS...AS WELL AS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY. WILL ALSO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF THE WET BULB EFFECT ALOFT AT
THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL NOT HELP MATTERS IN TERMS
OF GETTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. RUNNING THE WEATHER
PROCEDURE USING MODEL ALOFT TEMPERATURES AND THE SURFACE...BASICALLY
IN A TOP DOWN METHOD...PRODUCED MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND JUST ACROSS THE RIVER OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
THIS WAS THE REASON FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. PERRY COUNTY
WAS AN EASY CALL FOR THE UPGRADE TO A WARNING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW ON TOP OF THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.

PER USUAL...WE ARE ON THE GRADIENT. IMAGINE THAT. SO IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT ANY MISSES REGARDING THE TEMPERATURES COULD HAVE HUGE
IMPACT ON THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW LINES AND TIMINGS...AS
WAS THE STRUGGLE LAST NIGHT AS THE SUB FREEZING AIR TRIED MIGHTILY
TO SINK SOUTHWARD. HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
OTHER COUNTIES IN THE MIXED PRECIPITATION. WANTED TO GIVE THE DAY
SHIFT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE SOME MUCH NEEDED FLEXIBILITY FOR SOME LATE
CHANGES TO THESE HEADLINES AS FAR AS EXPANSIONS OR UPGRADES DUE TO A
SOMEWHAT MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

NOW IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THE FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN PLACE.
THERE IS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER CWA WIDE THAT EITHER FELL AS RAIN OR
IS STORED IN SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. WITH A SATURATED
GROUND THAT MAY BE PARTIALLY FROZEN IN AREAS...RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN
THAT WILL FALL OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WILL TEST THE AREA
STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS AS ANOTHER 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FACT THAT THIS RAIN WILL FALL
BASIN WIDE IS THE OTHER TROUBLING PART OF THIS EQUATION. IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF A CONFLICT WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE SLEET AND SNOW ARE A
POSSIBILITY...BUT FEEL THIS FLOOD WATCH IS STILL WELL SERVED IN
THESE PARTS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...A SHARP DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW...SO
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF SOUTHEAST OHIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

NOT DONE YET.

SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW MAKES LIFE DIFFICULT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
CWA. STILL WATCHING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT 925MB WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOW COLD AIR DAMMING THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE.
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW PROMISES TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING...AND WITH THE WARM PUNCH ALOFT IN RAIN...FREEZING RAIN IS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR THE
GREENBRIER AND CHEAT RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS TEMPERATURES WERE NOT AS
BULLISH ON THE COLD BIAS THAT APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLUTION AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THUS...FEAR THAT THE OUTPUT FROM USING THE
WEATHER PROCEDURE WAS MODEST FREEZING RAIN RELEGATED TO THE FAR
EASTERN FRINGES OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. NO HEADLINE YET
HERE. WILL LOOK OVER THIS ONE MORE TIME BEFORE LEAVING FOR THE
NIGHT...BUT HOPING THE NEXT MODEL RUN IS MORE HELPFUL IN THE
TEMPERATURES OUT THAT WAY THAN IT WAS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

THINK THAT IS IT. MY BRAIN IS SHOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STORM SYSTEM IS PULLING OUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXCEPT
FOR THE NAM...OTHER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER TIMING
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FRONT AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE I79 CORRIDOR...WITH CAT POPS IN RAIN
PRECEDING THE FRONT. FRONT WITH THE ORGANIZED RAIN EXITS MOUNTAINS
BY 18Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS HAVE A TYPICAL DRY SLOT FOR THIS
UPPER PATTERN...THIS BEING A STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS...WE HAVE A SLOT OF NO
POPS FOR A TIME BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT BEFORE THE REAL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND GOOD COLD ADVECTION IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
FALLING DURING THE DAY...THE PATTERN IS NOT REALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
POST FRONTAL AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS THAT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A DISTINCTIVE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE
TO THE FLOW...AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE. THUS...WE
WILL CONFINE ANY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THESE WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN THROUGH THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER
SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...BUT MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S. MODERATING TEMPS FRIDAY UNDER SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HARD TO FIGURE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB.  ONLY POPS
WERE SOME TOKEN 20 PERCENTS FOR THE MOST PART.  SO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FIGURED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN BULK OF PCPN FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW.  SEEMS THE HIGHER
PCPN TOTALS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE TO OUR EAST...TOWARD THE COAST.

STILL LEFT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.  INITIAL SET UP ON SATURDAY HAS
MOISTURE MAX OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ANOTHER IN THE MIDWEST.  RATHER
FRAGMENTED LEADING INTO THE MAIN EVENT.

COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STUBBRON LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME LIFTING TO MVFR/LOW VFR...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH INCLUDING AT KCRW...KBKW. MAY BE HARDER/LATER TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH. REGARDLESS...MAINLY BKN TO OVC SKIES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS AND SOUTHWEST VA...FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND A MIXTURE OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND EASTERN KY...WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AFTER 03Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER
03-06Z...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR AND LOCAL VLIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING 06-14Z...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND GUSTY AT TIMES
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES...BECOMING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 09Z...AND WESTERLY AFTER 14-16Z. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF UP TO 24 KTS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS EROSION MAY VARY. TIMING OF IFR
WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD VARY...AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION ONSET TIMING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME
MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE
AWARE OF THE PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL

EQUIPMENT...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

 157 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAVER COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
WHILE ALLOWING THE REST OF THE COUNTIES EXPIRE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BEAVER COUNTY BEFORE THE SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE
COUNTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1206 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/

UPDATE...
LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA. THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE REMAINS IN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM AS SNOW IS
CONTINUING TO OCCUR. AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF BEAVER AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES WITH LESS AMOUNTS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/

AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE GUY AND AMA
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THE ORGANIZED
SNOW IS MOVING AWAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT AT DHT AND GUY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS AT AMA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS
EVENING INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. CIGS MAY
RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURG THE COURSE OF TODAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
FALLING TO IFR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HINTED AT IN LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/

SHORT TERM...SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND COLD TEMPS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TX. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER NORTHERN
OK AND SOUTHERN KS...INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW ARE
LOCATED. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE WILL BE THE
FAVORED AREAS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ALTHOUGH THE RUC HAS THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN KS WHILE THE CURRENT HPC WINTER WX
DESK HAS LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THIS AND THE
LATER ONSET OF SNOW...HAVE TRIMMED SNOWFALL TOTALS A TAD ALTHOUGH
STILL LOOKING TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 5 INCHES. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BEAVER COUNTY AS CONFIDENCE
OF THIS AREA RECEIVING ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF 6+ INCHES IS NOT HIGH.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN OK AND
NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE CAN CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A BLAST OF COLD AIR WITH IT...WHICH
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WIND CHILLS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY AND COLD DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT
CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...IT
APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY BE POTENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET WHERE SUBZERO LOWS IN THE
OK PANHANDLE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE ARE POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW ZERO.

LONG TERM...
CONTINUED COLD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN.

THE SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WINDING
DOWN BY THE EVENING. BY FRIDAY WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST USHERING IN A BRIEF AND SLIGHT WARMUP WHERE HIGHS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO AREAS ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CAPROCK WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 20S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WILL PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT CAN
GENERATE ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS FRONT AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER AND WETTER ECMWF. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST...WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MODEST WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

15/14






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

 1206 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

.UPDATE...
LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA. THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE REMAINS IN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM AS SNOW IS
CONTINUING TO OCCUR. AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF BEAVER AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES WITH LESS AMOUNTS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/

AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE GUY AND AMA
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THE ORGANIZED
SNOW IS MOVING AWAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT AT DHT AND GUY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS AT AMA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS
EVENING INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. CIGS MAY
RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURG THE COURSE OF TODAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
FALLING TO IFR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HINTED AT IN LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/

SHORT TERM...SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND COLD TEMPS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TX. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER NORTHERN
OK AND SOUTHERN KS...INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW ARE
LOCATED. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE WILL BE THE
FAVORED AREAS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ALTHOUGH THE RUC HAS THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN KS WHILE THE CURRENT HPC WINTER WX
DESK HAS LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THIS AND THE
LATER ONSET OF SNOW...HAVE TRIMMED SNOWFALL TOTALS A TAD ALTHOUGH
STILL LOOKING TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 5 INCHES. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BEAVER COUNTY AS CONFIDENCE
OF THIS AREA RECEIVING ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF 6+ INCHES IS NOT HIGH.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN OK AND
NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE CAN CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A BLAST OF COLD AIR WITH IT...WHICH
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WIND CHILLS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY AND COLD DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT
CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...IT
APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY BE POTENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET WHERE SUBZERO LOWS IN THE
OK PANHANDLE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE ARE POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW ZERO.

LONG TERM...
CONTINUED COLD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN.

THE SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WINDING
DOWN BY THE EVENING. BY FRIDAY WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST USHERING IN A BRIEF AND SLIGHT WARMUP WHERE HIGHS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO AREAS ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CAPROCK WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 20S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WILL PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT CAN
GENERATE ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS FRONT AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER AND WETTER ECMWF. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST...WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MODEST WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/14






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

 1129 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE GUY AND AMA
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THE ORGANIZED
SNOW IS MOVING AWAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT AT DHT AND GUY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS AT AMA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS
EVENING INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. CIGS MAY
RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURG THE COURSE OF TODAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
FALLING TO IFR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HINTED AT IN LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014/

SHORT TERM...SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AND COLD TEMPS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TX. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER NORTHERN
OK AND SOUTHERN KS...INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW ARE
LOCATED. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE WILL BE THE
FAVORED AREAS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ALTHOUGH THE RUC HAS THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN KS WHILE THE CURRENT HPC WINTER WX
DESK HAS LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THIS AND THE
LATER ONSET OF SNOW...HAVE TRIMMED SNOWFALL TOTALS A TAD ALTHOUGH
STILL LOOKING TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 5 INCHES. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BEAVER COUNTY AS CONFIDENCE
OF THIS AREA RECEIVING ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF 6+ INCHES IS NOT HIGH.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN OK AND
NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE CAN CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A BLAST OF COLD AIR WITH IT...WHICH
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WIND CHILLS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY AND COLD DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT
CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...IT
APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY BE POTENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET WHERE SUBZERO LOWS IN THE
OK PANHANDLE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE ARE POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW ZERO.

LONG TERM...
CONTINUED COLD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN.

THE SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WINDING
DOWN BY THE EVENING. BY FRIDAY WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST USHERING IN A BRIEF AND SLIGHT WARMUP WHERE HIGHS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO AREAS ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CAPROCK WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 20S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WILL PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT CAN
GENERATE ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS FRONT AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER AND WETTER ECMWF. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST...WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MODEST WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...
     WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/14






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 417 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...PUSHING
A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1034 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK CAD RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ALOFT, WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...HEADED TOWARDS IN/IL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP HAS CAPTURED
TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WELL...AND FORECAST FOR THE EVENING
WILL HAVE A SIMILAR FLAVOR AS BEST LIFT (290-300K ISENTROPIC SFC)
SLIPS NORTH. GENERALLY, SHRAS WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VA/INTERIOR NE NC THROUGH 23Z OR SO, WITH BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE HEADED
TOWARDS RIC/EZF AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. INITIALLY, BEST MOISTURE IS
IN THE SUB-CLOUD LYR, WITH DRIER AIR REMAINING ALOFT. THUS, EXPECT
RAIN TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SPOTTY DZ EARLY ON...BECOMING MORE
STEADY AS LIFT IMPROVES LATER ON IN THE EVENING. PCPN ENDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, THOUGH EXPECT PATCHY DZ TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS LLVLS REMAIN MOIST. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE VA INTO NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN OH VLY AND WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT BEST LIFT TO CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES
IN THE NW FLIRT WITH ANY FZRA POTENTIAL (WHICH WILL LIE JUST NW OF
OUR CWA BORDERS). MINIMA WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED EARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING STEADY THEN SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.
ACROSS THE NORTH, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY SHUNTING THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE A
130-150KT JET STREAK WILL KEEP BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, EXPECT ENOUGH UVM/FGEN FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE LIKELY SHOWERS COINCIDING WITH THE
FROPA. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, RETURN
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. SREF PROBS SHOWING 50-60% CHC OF MLCAPE VALUES REACHING
500 J/KG...SO EXPECT EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS FAR SE ZONES. COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
(THOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT).
REGARDLESS, CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE COULD BRING
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WED AFTN.

CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE QUICKLY W-E BY AFTERNOON...AS DOWNSLOPE WNW
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SCOURS OUT MUCH OF THE MORNING
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE...LOW 50S NW...TO MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE SE. STORM TOTAL QPF WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH (UP TO
ONE HALF INCH) AND ALONG THE COAST (BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH).
LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

STRONG 1042+MB HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, SHUNTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FARTHER
OFFSHORE AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ENSUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. DRY WX IS EXPECTED THU/FRI AS SFC HI PRES BRIEFLY
SLIDES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPR 30S OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE TO THE LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVR THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN STARTING SATURDAY
WITH THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM ON A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING THE CONUS. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COAST SATURDAY. THE ECMWF PUSHES QPF WEST INTO SE VA AND EVEN
CENTRAL VA SATURDAY. A BLEND OF THE TWO PUSHES CHANCE POPS INTO
CENTRAL VA SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 50% ACROSS NE NC
AND SE VA TO 35% ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS SAT DEPEND HIGHLY ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HAVE TENDED ON THE COOL SIDE....BUT SHOULD
THERE BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.

ONCE THIS FIRST COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY EXISTS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...WILL BE DRY FOR A PERIOD UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
SUNDAY. A STRONGER WAVE DEVELOPS SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER HIGHLY ON
THIS SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF RUNNING FASTER AND COLDER. A BLEND OF
THE MODELS  MODELS INTRODUCES A RAIN SNOW MIX SUNDAY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND MD SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR
ANY REAL ACCUMULATION IN AREAS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURS.
EXPECT ALL RAIN SUNDAY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW (MIXED
WITH SOME RAIN) COULD SPREAD EAST TO THE COAST...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
BRIEF AS DRY AIR MOVES IN RAPIDLY.

BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK OF 600-2000 FT AGL WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
FARTHER INLAND FROM THE COAST TODAY WHILE CTRL VA STAYS RELATIVELY
CLOUD-FREE. THIS ALL ENDS AFTER 05/0000Z TONIGHT AS LOW CIGS
(ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT) LIFT NORTH FROM THE SE STATES TWD
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THIS TIME AND OVERSPREAD
THE REGION BY 05/0600Z. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE PRECIP
AND WARM FRONT WILL LOWER CIGS TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND WILL ALSO
LOWER VISIBILITIES TO ROUGHLY 2SM...POSSIBLY DOWN TO 1SM DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NW OF
THE REGION ON WED...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WED
AFTN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN
WITH SHOWERS EXITING THE COAST BY EARLY WED EVENING. SOLID
OVERCAST SKIES BEGIN TO BREAK UP BEHIND THE FROPA AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WED NIGHT/THU. POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NNW.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES THIS EVENING JUST FOR THE NC WATERS WHERE SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO FALL BELOW 5 TO 6 FT WITH THE NLY WINDS. SEAS WILL
DECREASE TO 5 FT OR LESS LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE WAVES AND
SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
AS THE PRES GRAD RELAXED SLIGHTLY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST OVERNIGHT THEN LIST NE TO THE DELMARVA BY WED MORNING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SLY FLOW WED MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB SCA FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAY AT
THIS TIME. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SCA CRITERIA SOME TIME WED
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HOVER...SLY WIND EVENTS TEND TO BE
OVER PREDICTED IN THE MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE COLD
WATERS. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS OVERNIGHT IN CASE A SCA IS NEEDED FOR
WED.

AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS WED NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS ALL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. THE BEST NLY
SURGE WITH THIS FRONT WILL OCCUR FROM 06Z-16Z THURSDAY. SCA COND ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS NLY SURGE.
HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION LATE THUR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING CALMER WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

THE PATTEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND STARTING LATE SATURDAY.
THIS PERIOD OF INCREASED WIND AND SEAS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH SCA COND LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ALB/BMD
MARINE...BMD/JAO