Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/01/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

 947 AM PST THU JAN 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE CARSON CITY AND SIERRA FRONT
FOOTHILLS UNTIL NOON AND ADDED SOUTHERN LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES
TO THE ADVISORY TODAY.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS AS OF MID MORNING AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. FORCING
CONTINUES ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS FRONT IN THE FORM OF SLOWLY
WANING FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE HEAVIER BAND OF
SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN BUT SHOULD DO SO AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS FORCING EXITS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WHERE
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXCEED A FOOT ABOVE 5000 FEET WITH A
WET HALF A FOOT ON SOME VALLEY FLOORS DOWN TO 4500 FOOT. A SUMMARY
STORM REPORT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 AM.

OUR ATTENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT
WHICH THE GFS/NAM ARE HANDLING SIMILARLY NOW. WILL BE ADJUSTING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS AND CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AS
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, BOTH IN THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO
WORK WITH AND THUS HAS POTENTIAL TO IMPACT MANY AREAS. MORE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM PST THU JAN 30 2014/

UPDATE...

WILL BE DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CAZ071 (SIERRA
NORTH OF I-80). BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE THREAT
FOR SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS APPEARS MINIMAL FOR THAT
AREA. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THOUGH.

SNOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE CARSON VALLEY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND BETTER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG COLD FRONT. JUST RECEIVED A SPOTTER REPORT OF 2.5
INCHES IN CARSON CITY. WILL BE UPDATING THE NVZ003 ADVISORY AND
FORECAST TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA INTO 1-3 INCH RANGE
FOR THIS MORNING.

NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SECONDARY AREA OF SNOW
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING QUICKLY AFTER 0Z OVER THE SIERRA AND THEN
PRESSING EASTWARD. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA INCLUDING RENO/CARSON
CITY FOR TONIGHT. A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS GIVEN LOWER SNOW LEVELS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL RESULT IN
SLICK ROADS GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. WE MAY END UP NEEDING
ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR THIS, BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A FRESH
LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECIDING.

UPDATED FORECAST AND ADVISORIES OUT SHORTLY.

CS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM PST THU JAN 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW TODAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS EVIDENCED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE
INFRARED SATELLITE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS, A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WITH MOIST FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE
AIRMASS BRINGING A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN NOTABLE FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND 12Z/4 AM IN
WESTERN NEVADA FROM ABOUT RENO NORTH FOR A FEW RUNS. BASED ON
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT (PER RADAR) AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE
MODELS MAY HAVE BEEN JUST A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE BEST FORCING.
BASED ON UPSTREAM ACTIVITY AND THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR, THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN AREAS BELOW
ABOUT 5500 FEET, LITTLE SNOW IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S (AND NO COLDER OR DRIER AIR TO ADVECT
IN FROM THE NORTH).

STILL, FOR WESTERN NEVADA I WILL LEAVE THE SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE
5000 FEET GOING FOR NOW AS AREAS SOUTH OF RENO IN THE FOOTHILLS
COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. AS FAR
AS THE SIERRA, THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE TAHOE
AREA AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WORKING SOUTH TO THE MAMMOTH AREA
THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND IN THE SIERRA ALTHOUGH WITH
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF AND DAYTIME ROAD HEATING ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

MOVING ON TO THE SECOND ROUND OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL FOR TONIGHT,
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH IT IS RESTRICTED TO NEAR THE SIERRA.
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLDER BY THIS
EVENING SO IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION TO CREATE SOME
SNOWFALL. STILL, I AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOWFALL AS THERE IS
NO LOW LEVEL FORCING EVIDENT TO AID UPPER FORCING WITH THE
DISTURBANCE SO SNOW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OFF INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. STILL, COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PERSIST SO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND -10C TO -12C. SNYDER

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
FOR THE EXTENDED, BOTH SHOWING A DEVELOPING RIDGE AROUND 135W WITH
COOL, DRY NW FLOW OVER THE CA/NV REGION. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF THE
RIDGE FLATTENING PAST FEB 6, WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE ESRL ANALOGS AS AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SEEING ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM IN THE D8-14 PERIOD.

PRIMARY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP SE
ALONG THE CA COASTLINE SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHOWN PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING WEST OF THE SIERRA, BUT THERE
ARE ABOVE NORMAL SPREADS IN THE GEFS/EC ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING AMPLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST EC
SOLUTION IS FURTHER EAST AND BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
SIERRA - SO HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONO CO
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE SYSTEM TRACK FURTHER EAST, THEN
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT.

TEMPERATURES SAT/SUN WILL BE QUITE CHILLY GIVEN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND 700MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -12C OR SO. EVEN WITH SUNSHINE, GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED COOLER FOR SAT/SUN, AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED, SUN MORNING LOWS WILL BE
THE COLDEST WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS IN WRN NV VALLEYS, AND BELOW ZERO
IN THE COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS (WITH SNOWCOVER). REST OF THE EXTENDED
APPEARS LARGELY DRY, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS VARIOUS SMALL SCALE
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THESE COULD GENERATE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS BUT PREDICTABILITY IS LOW - SO I`M MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST MON-WED. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLOW MODERATING TREND. CS

AVIATION...

ONGOING WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. FOLLOWED HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART AS IT`S CAPTURING
CURRENT TRENDS REASONABLY WELL. A SECOND BURST OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOWER. HERE`S THE DETAILS -

FOR RNO/CXP - PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH 18Z/TODAY WITH A MIX OF MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES AS SNOW LEVELS
FALL TO NEAR 4500-4800 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY AT RNO,
BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR CXP IF WE SEE A
PARTICULARLY HEAVY BURST OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 11-15Z. AFTER
18Z, THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SINKS SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD PROVIDE A
BREAK THROUGH 03Z/FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. AFTER 03Z/FRIDAY, A SECOND AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 9-12Z/FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WOULD BE LOWER,
AND IF THIS SNOW PANS OUT IT WOULD LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ADMITTEDLY ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM
RIGHT NOW AS THERE IS STILL VARIABILITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE. BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT COULD IMPACT LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING
FLIGHT OPERATIONS.

FOR TVL/TRK - SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL AT TVL, REMAINING
RAIN AS OF 9Z. THIS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. WITHIN GENERAL AREA OF ONGOING RAIN/SNOW,
HRRR GUIDANCE BRINGS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW BETWEEN 11-15Z. THIS
WILL RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL INCHES SNOW
ACCUMULATION. PRECIP INTENSITY SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER 18Z WITH
SCT SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z-09Z/FRIDAY BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM DUE TO VARIABILITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE.
SHOULD THIS NEXT ROUND OF SNOW PAN OUT, THEN PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
ARE LIKELY.

FOR MMH - STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING AS THE AIRFIELD REMAINS
SHADOWED FROM PRECIPITATION. NAM PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND THESE
WINDS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE AS RAIN/SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER
12Z. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 12Z
AND 00Z/FRIDAY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z AS TEMPERATURES DROP.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FROM
ROUGHLY 6Z-18Z/FRIDAY BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
VARIABILITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE. CS

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR NVZ001.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
     NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET
     FOR CAZ073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

 642 AM PST THU JAN 30 2014

.UPDATE...

WILL BE DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CAZ071 (SIERRA
NORTH OF I-80). BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE THREAT
FOR SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS APPEARS MINIMAL FOR THAT
AREA. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THOUGH.

SNOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE CARSON VALLEY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND BETTER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG COLD FRONT. JUST RECEIVED A SPOTTER REPORT OF 2.5
INCHES IN CARSON CITY. WILL BE UPDATING THE NVZ003 ADVISORY AND
FORECAST TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA INTO 1-3 INCH RANGE
FOR THIS MORNING.

NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SECONDARY AREA OF SNOW
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING QUICKLY AFTER 0Z OVER THE SIERRA AND THEN
PRESSING EASTWARD. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA INCLUDING RENO/CARSON
CITY FOR TONIGHT. A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS GIVEN LOWER SNOW LEVELS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL RESULT IN
SLICK ROADS GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. WE MAY END UP NEEDING
ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR THIS, BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A FRESH
LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECIDING.

UPDATED FORECAST AND ADVISORIES OUT SHORTLY.

CS


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM PST THU JAN 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW TODAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS EVIDENCED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE
INFRARED SATELLITE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS, A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WITH MOIST FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE
AIRMASS BRINGING A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN NOTABLE FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND 12Z/4 AM IN
WESTERN NEVADA FROM ABOUT RENO NORTH FOR A FEW RUNS. BASED ON
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT (PER RADAR) AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE
MODELS MAY HAVE BEEN JUST A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE BEST FORCING.
BASED ON UPSTREAM ACTIVITY AND THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR, THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN AREAS BELOW
ABOUT 5500 FEET, LITTLE SNOW IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S (AND NO COLDER OR DRIER AIR TO ADVECT
IN FROM THE NORTH).

STILL, FOR WESTERN NEVADA I WILL LEAVE THE SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE
5000 FEET GOING FOR NOW AS AREAS SOUTH OF RENO IN THE FOOTHILLS
COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. AS FAR
AS THE SIERRA, THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE TAHOE
AREA AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WORKING SOUTH TO THE MAMMOTH AREA
THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND IN THE SIERRA ALTHOUGH WITH
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF AND DAYTIME ROAD HEATING ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

MOVING ON TO THE SECOND ROUND OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL FOR TONIGHT,
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH IT IS RESTRICTED TO NEAR THE SIERRA.
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLDER BY THIS
EVENING SO IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION TO CREATE SOME
SNOWFALL. STILL, I AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOWFALL AS THERE IS
NO LOW LEVEL FORCING EVIDENT TO AID UPPER FORCING WITH THE
DISTURBANCE SO SNOW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OFF INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. STILL, COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PERSIST SO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND -10C TO -12C. SNYDER

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
FOR THE EXTENDED, BOTH SHOWING A DEVELOPING RIDGE AROUND 135W WITH
COOL, DRY NW FLOW OVER THE CA/NV REGION. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF THE
RIDGE FLATTENING PAST FEB 6, WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE ESRL ANALOGS AS AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SEEING ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM IN THE D8-14 PERIOD.

PRIMARY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP SE
ALONG THE CA COASTLINE SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHOWN PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING WEST OF THE SIERRA, BUT THERE
ARE ABOVE NORMAL SPREADS IN THE GEFS/EC ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING AMPLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST EC
SOLUTION IS FURTHER EAST AND BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
SIERRA - SO HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONO CO
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE SYSTEM TRACK FURTHER EAST, THEN
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT.

TEMPERATURES SAT/SUN WILL BE QUITE CHILLY GIVEN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND 700MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -12C OR SO. EVEN WITH SUNSHINE, GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED COOLER FOR SAT/SUN, AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED, SUN MORNING LOWS WILL BE
THE COLDEST WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS IN WRN NV VALLEYS, AND BELOW ZERO
IN THE COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS (WITH SNOWCOVER). REST OF THE EXTENDED
APPEARS LARGELY DRY, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS VARIOUS SMALL SCALE
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THESE COULD GENERATE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS BUT PREDICTABILITY IS LOW - SO I`M MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST MON-WED. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLOW MODERATING TREND. CS

AVIATION...

ONGOING WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. FOLLOWED HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART AS IT`S CAPTURING
CURRENT TRENDS REASONABLY WELL. A SECOND BURST OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOWER. HERE`S THE DETAILS -

FOR RNO/CXP - PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH 18Z/TODAY WITH A MIX OF MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES AS SNOW LEVELS
FALL TO NEAR 4500-4800 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY AT RNO,
BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR CXP IF WE SEE A
PARTICULARLY HEAVY BURST OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 11-15Z. AFTER
18Z, THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SINKS SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD PROVIDE A
BREAK THROUGH 03Z/FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. AFTER 03Z/FRIDAY, A SECOND AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 9-12Z/FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WOULD BE LOWER,
AND IF THIS SNOW PANS OUT IT WOULD LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ADMITTEDLY ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM
RIGHT NOW AS THERE IS STILL VARIABILITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE. BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT COULD IMPACT LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING
FLIGHT OPERATIONS.

FOR TVL/TRK - SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL AT TVL, REMAINING
RAIN AS OF 9Z. THIS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. WITHIN GENERAL AREA OF ONGOING RAIN/SNOW,
HRRR GUIDANCE BRINGS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW BETWEEN 11-15Z. THIS
WILL RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL INCHES SNOW
ACCUMULATION. PRECIP INTENSITY SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER 18Z WITH
SCT SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z-09Z/FRIDAY BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM DUE TO VARIABILITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE.
SHOULD THIS NEXT ROUND OF SNOW PAN OUT, THEN PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
ARE LIKELY.

FOR MMH - STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING AS THE AIRFIELD REMAINS
SHADOWED FROM PRECIPITATION. NAM PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND THESE
WINDS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE AS RAIN/SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER
12Z. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 12Z
AND 00Z/FRIDAY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z AS TEMPERATURES DROP.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FROM
ROUGHLY 6Z-18Z/FRIDAY BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
VARIABILITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE. CS

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET
     FOR CAZ073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

 327 AM PST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW TODAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS EVIDENCED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE
INFRARED SATELLITE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS, A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WITH MOIST FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE
AIRMASS BRINGING A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN NOTABLE FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND 12Z/4 AM IN
WESTERN NEVADA FROM ABOUT RENO NORTH FOR A FEW RUNS. BASED ON
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT (PER RADAR) AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE
MODELS MAY HAVE BEEN JUST A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE BEST FORCING.
BASED ON UPSTREAM ACTIVITY AND THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR, THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN AREAS BELOW
ABOUT 5500 FEET, LITTLE SNOW IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S (AND NO COLDER OR DRIER AIR TO ADVECT
IN FROM THE NORTH).

STILL, FOR WESTERN NEVADA I WILL LEAVE THE SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE
5000 FEET GOING FOR NOW AS AREAS SOUTH OF RENO IN THE FOOTHILLS
COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. AS FAR
AS THE SIERRA, THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE TAHOE
AREA AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WORKING SOUTH TO THE MAMMOTH AREA
THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND IN THE SIERRA ALTHOUGH WITH
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF AND DAYTIME ROAD HEATING ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST.

MOVING ON TO THE SECOND ROUND OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL FOR TONIGHT,
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH IT IS RESTRICTED TO NEAR THE SIERRA.
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLDER BY THIS
EVENING SO IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION TO CREATE SOME
SNOWFALL. STILL, I AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOWFALL AS THERE IS
NO LOW LEVEL FORCING EVIDENT TO AID UPPER FORCING WITH THE
DISTURBANCE SO SNOW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
OFF INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. STILL, COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PERSIST SO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND -10C TO -12C. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
FOR THE EXTENDED, BOTH SHOWING A DEVELOPING RIDGE AROUND 135W WITH
COOL, DRY NW FLOW OVER THE CA/NV REGION. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF THE
RIDGE FLATTENING PAST FEB 6, WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE ESRL ANALOGS AS AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SEEING ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM IN THE D8-14 PERIOD.

PRIMARY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP SE
ALONG THE CA COASTLINE SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHOWN PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING WEST OF THE SIERRA, BUT THERE
ARE ABOVE NORMAL SPREADS IN THE GEFS/EC ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING AMPLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST EC
SOLUTION IS FURTHER EAST AND BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
SIERRA - SO HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONO CO
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE SYSTEM TRACK FURTHER EAST, THEN
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT.

TEMPERATURES SAT/SUN WILL BE QUITE CHILLY GIVEN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND 700MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -12C OR SO. EVEN WITH SUNSHINE, GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED COOLER FOR SAT/SUN, AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED, SUN MORNING LOWS WILL BE
THE COLDEST WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS IN WRN NV VALLEYS, AND BELOW ZERO
IN THE COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS (WITH SNOWCOVER). REST OF THE EXTENDED
APPEARS LARGELY DRY, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS VARIOUS SMALL SCALE
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THESE COULD GENERATE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS BUT PREDICTABILITY IS LOW - SO I`M MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST MON-WED. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLOW MODERATING TREND. CS
&&

.AVIATION...

ONGOING WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. FOLLOWED HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART AS IT`S CAPTURING
CURRENT TRENDS REASONABLY WELL. A SECOND BURST OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOWER. HERE`S THE DETAILS -

FOR RNO/CXP - PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH 18Z/TODAY WITH A MIX OF MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES AS SNOW LEVELS
FALL TO NEAR 4500-4800 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY AT RNO,
BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR CXP IF WE SEE A
PARTICULARLY HEAVY BURST OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 11-15Z. AFTER
18Z, THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SINKS SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD PROVIDE A
BREAK THROUGH 03Z/FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. AFTER 03Z/FRIDAY, A SECOND AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 9-12Z/FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WOULD BE LOWER,
AND IF THIS SNOW PANS OUT IT WOULD LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ADMITTEDLY ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM
RIGHT NOW AS THERE IS STILL VARIABILITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE. BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT COULD IMPACT LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING
FLIGHT OPERATIONS.

FOR TVL/TRK - SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL AT TVL, REMAINING
RAIN AS OF 9Z. THIS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. WITHIN GENERAL AREA OF ONGOING RAIN/SNOW,
HRRR GUIDANCE BRINGS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW BETWEEN 11-15Z. THIS
WILL RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL INCHES SNOW
ACCUMULATION. PRECIP INTENSITY SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER 18Z WITH
SCT SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z-09Z/FRIDAY BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM DUE TO VARIABILITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE.
SHOULD THIS NEXT ROUND OF SNOW PAN OUT, THEN PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
ARE LIKELY.

FOR MMH - STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING AS THE AIRFIELD REMAINS
SHADOWED FROM PRECIPITATION. NAM PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND THESE
WINDS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE AS RAIN/SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER
12Z. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 12Z
AND 00Z/FRIDAY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z AS TEMPERATURES DROP.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FROM
ROUGHLY 6Z-18Z/FRIDAY BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
VARIABILITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE. CS
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR CAZ071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET
     FOR CAZ073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1157 PM MST WED JAN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 PM MST WED JAN 29 2014

UPDATED TO THROW IN EL PASO AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER
COUNTY AS WELL AS HUERFANO COUNTY INTO THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
TONIGHT. GETTING GUSTS IN THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AREA OF AROUND 65
MPH...AND ALTHOUGH CROSS-SECTIONS OFF THE 00Z NAM12 DID NOT LOOK
ANY MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...THE LOCAL 4KM WRF AND
HRRR HAVE COME IN STRONGER. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE TREND
SO HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE WINDS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CLOSELY AS
THIS AREA MAY SEE HIGH WINDS IF HRRR IS CORRECT. IF SO THESE MAY
MATERIALIZE AROUND 12Z. -KT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM MST WED JAN 29 2014

PIKES PEAK SENSOR REGISTERED A GUST TO 80 MPH AT 530 PM. WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE INCOMING JET...DECIDED
TO ADD THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PIKES PEAK...THE WETS...AND
SANGRES TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND TO BUMP UP THE START TIME TO
NOW. THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL STAY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE MESONET SENSORS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
SEE IF MTN WAVE DEVELOPS AND HELPS TO SPREAD THESE STRONG WINDS
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK REGION.
MTN WAVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST YET...BUT WILL BE MONITORING THE 00Z
RUNS AND HIGH RES MODELS CLOSELY AS THEY ARRIVE. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST WED JAN 29 2014

NOTE...CORRECTION SENT AS THIS MORNINGS SHORT TERM AND AVIATION AFD
SECTIONS WERE ACCIDENTALLY SENT OUT IN THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON AFD
PACKAGE...

...SNOW HEADING FOR THE CONTDVD...

CURRENTLY...A STRONG AND MOIST PACIFIC JET STREAM IS TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION...WITH SNOW
STARTING UP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. FURTHER
EAST...A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WEST OF I-25 TO THE MID
30S IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...WHICH FAILED TO MIX OUT AND
STILL HAS SOME SNOW COVER AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...STRONG JET CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...SPREADING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES REMAINING ON TRACK...THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY INTO AN ADVISORY. STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 18 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTS BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
IN ADDITION...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER PASSES IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING A BRIEF WINDOW OF
WEAK REVERSE SHEAR TO LAMINAR FLOW ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION FROM
AROUND 03Z TO 09Z WITH A BETTER SET UP FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WHERE HAVE UPGRADED THE
CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ZONES 74 AND 75 WITH GUSTS
UP TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH THAT SAID...IT WILL STILL BE WINDY
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN MTS...WITH WEST WINDS OF 20
TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

AS THE JET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW....WILL SEE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...OWNING TO UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS FOR PRECIPITATION THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST WED JAN 29 2014

...HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CONTDVD...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE OTHER
REGIONS...

LATEST SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE FLOW AT MID LVLS WILL TRANSITION FROM WEST TO
WSW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAVY SNOW WHICH WILL BE FALLING OVER
THE C MTNS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE SAN JUANS. WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE CONTDVD WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE
CONTDVD...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT SWD DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
CONTDVD THU NITE.

SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION THU NITE. IT
APPEARS THE OVERALL BEST FORCING WILL BE FROM THE TOP OF THE PALMER
DVD/PIKES PEAK NORTHWARD...SO AT THIS TIME...I AM NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH SNOW FOR FRIDAY MORNINGS RUSH HOUR. HOWEVER 1-3" ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR N EL PASO COUNTY...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
TELLER COUNTY.

I SHOULD NOTE THAT IF THE JET DOES TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN
GUIDANCE INDICATES...THEN MUCH HEAVIER SNOW COULD AFFECT THE PIKES
PEAK REGION. HOWEVER TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE BEST FORCING FARTHER NORTH.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE
CONTDVD. IT STILL WILL SNOW STEADILY (ESPECIALLY OVER THE W FACING
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS (AREAS S OF WOLF CREEK PASS)...BUT THE RATES
WILL DECREASE. OVER THE PLAINS...IT WILL BE COOL. THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THE PALMER DVD AREA WILL HAVE THE
OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR FRI NITE INTO SAT...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD REGION.

SUNDAY IS A BIT TRICKY...EC HAS IT DRY WHILE GFS HAS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW KEPT THE N
PART OF THE CWA DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER
THE S TIER. THIS DISCREPANCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SPEEDS AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES...WITH THE EC BEING A BIT
FASTER THAN THE GFS.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW CONUS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN SHIFTING THIS
DISTURBANCE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE S1/2 OF THE CWA...MAINLY S OF HIGHWAY 50.
FOR NOW HAVE PAINTED SLIGHT POPS OVER THE REGION DURING THE MON-TUE
TIME FRAME. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

OVERALL DURING THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD...TEMPS WILL BELOW NORMAL
EACH DAY OVER THE PLAINS. HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST WED JAN 29 2014

STRONG JET STREAM OVER COLORADO WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY HEAVY
SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN SN BLSN AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL REMAIN VFR BUT WITH SUBSTANTIAL TURBULENCE ALOFT AND POCKETS
OF LLWS ALONG THE LEE OF PIKES PEAK...SANGRES...AND WET MOUNTAINS.
LLWS SHOULD STAY ALONG/WEST OF I-25...AND HAVE THIS IN THE TAF FOR
KCOS THROUGH 13Z. CIGS WILL START TO LOWER AT KCOS DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SN AND BR TOWARDS 00Z. WILL
LIKELY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT KCOS AFTER 06Z BUT THIS IS
JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE AN INCH OF SNOW FALL AT THE
KCOS TERMINAL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. KPUB WILL SEE CIGS DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY THURS EVENING...AND COULD SEE IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH ANY SNOW
APPEARS TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINAL.  KALS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ058>061.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ073>075-080-
082-087.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ064-066-067.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ062-063.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ081-084-085.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 1235 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY
THURSDAY...A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...THE LATEST RUC SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS
SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY
INCREASED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...AND TEMPS HAVE RISEN 2 TO 5
DEGREES. HAVE INCREASED MINS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A
LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES TO SCRAPE EXTREME NRN HERKIMER COUNTY
PER THE KTYX RADAR. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF OLD
FORGE...AND A COATING TO AN INCH NEAR OLD FORGE. THE BAND SHOULD
CRUMBLE PRIOR TO 11Z WITH DRIER AIR...INCREASED SHEAR...AND A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OVERALL...ANOTHER COLD MORNING WITH
LOWS ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
SINGLE DIGITS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

DISCUSSION OF LAKE EFFECT EVOLUTION FOLLOWS...

MAIN ATTENTION HAS BEEN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. CSTAR INLAND EXTENT HAS BEEN PERFORMING OUTSTANDING WITH
THE LIMITS AROUND 55 MILES WHICH PLACES THE BAND RIGHT NEAR THE
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY LINE. AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
IMAGERY...A SMALL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO AS THIS MAY TEMPORARILY RAISE THE INVERSION LEVEL /WHICH
WAS CAPTURED IN THE BUF 00Z SOUNDING/ FOR THE BAND TO MOVE A
LITTLE FURTHER INLAND AS SUGGESTED BY WRF/HRRR EXPERIMENTAL
REFLECTIVITIES AND RUC13 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. SO WE WILL INCREASE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UP TO 2 INCHES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY /IN THE VICINITY OF MOSHIER FALLS/ PER THE CARIBOU SNOW
ACCUMULATION TECHNIQUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE START OF
A WARMING TREND DUE TO A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. COMBINED WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE...MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE WELL INTO THE 20S
DESPITE THE COLD START.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAINLY DUE TO SOUTHERLY
UPSLOPE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHER VALUES WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
SOUTHWEST BREEZE DEVELOPING.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING SEEN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENTS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION AFTER THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN NOAM AND TIGHTENING
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION WILL AID IN A
DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING AND SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT.  THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A SURFACE LOW TRACK TO BE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER...NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO
DISLODGE THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME.  PER
THE THICKNESS MODIFIED SCHEMES...WE WILL LEAN A LITTLE COLDER WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WITHIN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.  THE HEAVIER QPF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SEEMS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS AND CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.  H850 TEMPS
DROP BACK TO BELOW -10C.  SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO CREST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
SUNDAY TO REDUCE LAKE IMPACTS AND GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES.

THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME ELONGATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY.

SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE SKC OR FEW-SCT250 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 7-8 KTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN
S-SW AT 4 TO 8 KTS ON THURSDAY BCMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE.
THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THEN FINALLY START
TO MODERATE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 1231 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY
THURSDAY...A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...THE LATEST RUC SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS
SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY
INCREASED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...AND TEMPS HAVE RISEN 2 TO 5
DEGREES. HAVE INCREASED MINS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A
LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES TO SCRAPE EXTREME NRN HERKIMER COUNTY
PER THE KTYX RADAR. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF OLD
FORGE...AND A COATING TO AN INCH NEAR OLD FORGE. THE BAND SHOULD
CRUMBLE PRIOR TO 11Z WITH DRIER AIR...INCREASED SHEAR...AND A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OVERALL...ANOTHER COLD MORNING WITH
LOWS ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
SINGLE DIGITS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

DISCUSSION OF LAKE EFFECT EVOLUTION FOLLOWS...

MAIN ATTENTION HAS BEEN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. CSTAR INLAND EXTENT HAS BEEN PERFORMING OUTSTANDING WITH
THE LIMITS AROUND 55 MILES WHICH PLACES THE BAND RIGHT NEAR THE
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY LINE. AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
IMAGERY...A SMALL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO AS THIS MAY TEMPORARILY RAISE THE INVERSION LEVEL /WHICH
WAS CAPTURED IN THE BUF 00Z SOUNDING/ FOR THE BAND TO MOVE A
LITTLE FURTHER INLAND AS SUGGESTED BY WRF/HRRR EXPERIMENTAL
REFLECTIVITIES AND RUC13 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. SO WE WILL INCREASE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UP TO 2 INCHES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY /IN THE VICINITY OF MOSHIER FALLS/ PER THE CARIBOU SNOW
ACCUMULATION TECHNIQUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE START OF
A WARMING TREND DUE TO A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. COMBINED WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE...MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE WELL INTO THE 20S
DESPITE THE COLD START.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAINLY DUE TO SOUTHERLY
UPSLOPE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHER VALUES WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
SOUTHWEST BREEZE DEVELOPING.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING SEEN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENTS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION AFTER THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN NOAM AND TIGHTENING
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION WILL AID IN A
DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING AND SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT.  THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A SURFACE LOW TRACK TO BE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER...NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO
DISLODGE THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME.  PER
THE THICKNESS MODIFIED SCHEMES...WE WILL LEAN A LITTLE COLDER WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WITHIN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.  THE HEAVIER QPF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SEEMS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS AND CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.  H850 TEMPS
DROP BACK TO BELOW -10C.  SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO CREST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
SUNDAY TO REDUCE LAKE IMPACTS AND GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES.

THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME ELONGATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTSIDE OF SOME CU/SC OFF LAKE ONTARIO IMPACTING KGFL...NEAR IDEAL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH NO AVIATION OBSTRUCTIONS EXPECTED. RIDGE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE.
THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THEN FINALLY START
TO MODERATE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 528 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

20Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave coming out of southern CA
towards the four corners region. At the surface...obs show an
inverted trough or stalled frontal boundary from the Red River
valley to the MO Ozarks.

Winter weather will spread across the forecast area from west to
east this evening as mid level frontogenesis combines with large
scale forcing from the shortwave. The increasing concern is from the
models bringing a warm dry nose into east central KS overnight. This
is likely to cause a mixed bag of precip to occur across east
central KS for a couple reasons. First it looks like we could lose
the saturation within the dendritic growth zone and if we remain
saturated the warm nose is likely to melt any snow. With the models
trending further northwest with this warm nose, have brought a
mention of sleet with the snow just to the north and west of the KS
turnpike with freezing rain looking more likely for Anderson, Coffey
and Franklin counties. Fortunately QPF amounts are not as high
across east central KS so ice accumulations are forecast to be
around a tenth of an inch. Further to the northwest, the high
resolution models have been consistent in showing an enhanced band
of snow from the frontogenesis with some weak conditional
instability. Because the system appears to be fairly progressive,
think widespread snow amounts will remains below 6 inches. However
think it is not out of the question that a few locations could see 6
inches or slightly more if rates are able to remain high for a
prolonged period of time. Confidence in the event will hinge mainly
on the track of the shortwave coming out of the Rockies and where
the elevated warm nose ends up. So location of amounts have the
lowest confidence. Lows tonight are not expected to fall much from
current readings since there does not appear to be much cold air
advection occurring, and overcast skies preventing any radiational
cooling. Highs Saturday have been trended a little cooler as models
increase low level cold air advection on the back side of a surface
wave lifting northeast and clouds limiting insolation. Think highs
will be mainly in the upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

Surface high pressure sourced from British Columbia works in
Saturday night with winds and clouds decreasing. Lowered temps a
few degrees with the expectations of a snowfield of sufficient and
breadth and depth to cool the boundary layer over at least
northern portions of the area. Sunday looking cold but sunny and
with little wind as the high passes east across Kansas and a
shortwave crosses the Southern Plains. South winds return Sunday
night with cirrus also picking and specific trends of both of
these will be a big player in lows.

Next winter storm system still on track for late Monday into late
Tuesday as the upper low around 45N/150W today is ushered southeast
into southern California then east into the central portions of the
nation. Models are rather similar with good upper QG forcing, the
trough taking a negative tilt as it enters the Plains, and TROWAL
indications. Temps around 800 mb in the far south may approach 0 C
as low level winds back late Monday night into early Tuesday, but at
this point will keep all precip as snow. Still much to be determined
on accumulation details, but amounts commonly in the few-several
inch range remain on target. North winds picking up behind it and
the 1040-1050 mb northern Alaskan-sourced high building in brings
another shot of very cold temps and potential for advisory-level
wind chills into Wednesday. 850 mb temps aren`t quite as low as what
other recent events have had, but model soundings support the very
cold nature of the near-surface airmass, with little opportunity for
airmass modification as the Northern and Central Plains continue to
be or become rather snow-covered.

The next concern comes at the end of the forecast as a trough dives
south along the West Coast then turns east into the region.
Operational and ensemble runs do diverge considerably with this
system, but some chance of precip seems in order for Thursday night
and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 517 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

Main uncertainty is timing when the lower CIGS will move into the
terminals. While the RAP appears to remain to aggressive with the
lower CIGS, the NAM and GFS do not suggest much different timing
than already forecast. Based the onset of SN off the RAP/HRRR/NAM
and included a tempo for some LIFR conditions with moderate SN
since all the objective guidance shows this with the heavier
banded snowfall. Latest model forecast soundings show a mix of
snow and sleet for TOP and FOE later tonight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Saturday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-034>036.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Saturday FOR KSZ026-
037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 1037 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
LATE SATURDAY THEN CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.&

&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1033 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS UPWARD BASED ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBS. A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY THIS EVENING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SPREAD INTO NE MAINE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND SREF
PICK UP ON BAND OF LOW CLOUDS. THIS IN TURN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP AS WELL AND THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE RAISED A CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST LOOK GOOD.

SEE MARINE SECTION AND AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT
TO JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARM ADVECTION SET UP WITH SNOW STILL FORECAST FOR THE NORTH BUT A
MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN EXPECTED OVER DOWNEAST LOCALS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME RAIN/SNOW TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL NOT BE A PARTICULARLY STRONG LOW WITH A DEEP
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE AND AS SUCH LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE BY THE TIME PRECIP ENDS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH SNOW TOTALS OVER THE NORTH WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LESSER AMOUNTS HEADING FARTHER SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WITH FAIR BUT COLDER CONDITIONS BUILDS BACK IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HOLDS
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM, EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THE LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A MAINLY SNOW EVENT...EVEN ALONG
THE COAST. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FAIR AND SEASONALLY COLD
CONDITIONS BUILD IN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT W/A CIG OF 1500-2500 FT IS ALREADY AT KFVE.
THIS WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. IT DOES LOOK
AS THOUGH THIS CIG WILL LIFT AFTER 12Z W/SOME HELP OF THE SUN AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS. KBGR AND KBHB SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

IT LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

SHORT TERM:
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IRF SATURDAY NIGHT AS SNOW IN THE
NORTH AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW SOUTH MOVES IN. THESE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING LATER IN THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY BY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
UPDATE...DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN
BACK TO 4-5 FT AND CONTINUE TO DROP OFF. WINDS ARE RUNNING 10-15
KT.

SHORT TERM: SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING BY TO THE NORTH WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY SUNDAY
ALONG WITH RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG. THESE WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO NW BY LATER SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BUT REMAIN
NEAR SCA LEVELS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 403 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (EXTENDING FROM WELL OFF THE SE COAST
TO SRN FLORIDA) AND SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A
STEADY STREAM OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS EVENING...
WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO FAR SE VA OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INSULATE THE ATMOSPHERE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO LIKE
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THOSE AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 20S HERE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE VERY LIGHT PRECIP UNDER THIS CLOUD
SHIELD BUT AM ONLY ANTICIPATING LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IF ANY PRECIP DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM 15-20 DEGREES. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WAS OBSERVED
EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO SUBLIMATION OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.
PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS SHALLOW SFC
INVERSIONS DEVELOP...BUT DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITY OR TRAVEL
IMPACTS FROM IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHALLOW SFC INVERSIONS SHOULD BREAK SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND
TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING TWD VALUES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STAY ON THE COLD SIDE UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS) WITH
REMNANT SNOWPACK IN THE AREA. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 20S
(NEAR 30 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST).

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AREA FALLS WITHIN A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN AS MOISTURE STAYS CONFINED TO THE OHIO VALLEY LOW AS
WELL AS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE COAST. THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE SE STATES IS ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING PULLED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
EXPERIENCE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL BE WELL UNDER WAY...
ESPECIALLY AS S-SW WINDS BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO READINGS AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND COULD TREND UPWARD IF THE WINDS INCREASE IN CONSECUTIVE MODEL
RUNS. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW TRACKS INTO THE ERN ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH BALMY LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
MID-UPPER 40S FAR SE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN AND RECENT SNOWMELT WILL
SATURATE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS SFC INVERSIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MID
MORNING SUNDAY. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN...BRINGING
A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID 50S NW
AND IN THE LOW-MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS RESULTS IN RELAXATION OF THE
VERY COLD CONDS THROUGH LT NEXT WK...BUT ALSO INTRODUCES PTNTL
INCRSG STORMINESS AND FORECAST CHALLENGES. WHILE A RETURN TO
EXTREMELY COLD CONDS NOT XPCD THROUGH BALANCE OF NEXT WK...PLENTY
OF COLD AIR WILL RMN IN SRN CANADA...WHICH MAY ADD TO ANY STM/PCPN
CHALLENGES.

AS SFC CDFNT SETTLES S OF THE RGN SUN NGT INTO MON...WK WAVE OF LO
PRES TRACKING ALG IT BRINGS CLDS AND CHC PCPN (PSBL LGT MIX ACRS
FAR NRN COUNTIES...OTRW RA). DRYING OUT MON NGT INTO TUE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE RETURNS DURING TUE AS NEXT/COMPLEX STM SYS
EJECTS FM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY (TUE)...THEN CONTG
TO TRACK TO THE NE WED. MDLS CONTG TO SUGGEST LO LVL CAD AHD OF
THAT SYS (PREVENTING ANY QUICK WARMING). SCOURING OUT THE LO LVL
CAD ON WED MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FAR INLAND (TEMPS IN THE
40S)...WHILE WARMING OCCURS ELSW (TO THE 50S/60S). ALSO...WILL
CONT W/ CHC POPS (RA) AHD OF...AND W/ PASSAGE OF CDFNT (ON WED).
COLDER (SEASONABLE)/DRIER WX XPCD THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE THAT THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT ORF AND ECG FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR SUNRISE...HOWEVER IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED. FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT THE IMPACTS
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A HAZE THAN TRUE
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
PCPN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH. VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA. THE SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FETCH MAY
PRODUCE SEAS OF 5 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TOO WEAK
FOR SCA CONDITIONS. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS INDICATE A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
* NORFOLK HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A TEMPERATURE
  OF 6 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 10 F IN 1934. THIS IS THE
  COLDEST READING SINCE IT WAS 5 DEG ON JAN 19, 1994.

* ELIZABETH CITY HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A
  TEMPERATURE OF 7 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 9 F IN 1934.

* SALISBURY HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A
  TEMPERATURE OF -6 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS IN 1940.

* WALLOPS ISLAND HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A
  TEMPERATURE OF 3 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 13 F IN 1986.

* RICHMOND HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 4 F THIS MORNING. THE RECORD
  LOW FOR TODAY IS -3 F FROM 1940.

* WFO WAKEFIELD DROPPED TO -5 F THIS MORNING. THIS IS ONLY THE
  THIRD TIME THAT AKQ HAS BEEN BELOW ZERO SINCE THE OFFICE OPENED
  (NEARLY 20 YEARS). OTHER BELOW ZERO READINGS WERE -5 F ON
  JAN 28, 2000...AND -4 F ON FEB 05, 1996.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
CLIMATE...AKQ









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 147 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRETCHED ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS FROM THE NE TO SE STATES TODAY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE RESULTED IN RECORD-BREAKING LOW
TEMPERATURES EARLIER THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ) HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED AND CONTAINS ADDITIONAL LOW TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR
THIS MORNING. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATED STATEMENT LATE THIS
MORNING SHOWING LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.

SHALLOW SFC INVERSIONS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN AND TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY CLIMBING NICELY. HAD CONSIDERED LOWERING HIGH TEMPS FOR
THIS AFTN BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST INTACT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S. THIS IS ABOUT 1.0-1.5 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE END OF JANUARY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP MELT ICY AND
SNOWPACKED SECONDARY ROADS TODAY. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY (EXTENDING FROM WELL OFF THE SE COAST TO SRN FLORIDA) AND
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS NE NC/FAR SE VA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM/ECMWF AND LATEST SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE A SLIGHT CHC FOR
SOME PRECIP REACHING NE NC TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF
SFC HIGH IN PLACE AND OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...FIND IT HARD TO
BELIEVE ANY PRECIP WOULD REACH THE GROUND. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW AN INCREASE IN STRATUS NEAR THE COAST. CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WX EXPECTED. THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD FINALLY
RETREAT IN ERNEST AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OF THE SE
COAST. S-SW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPS THRU
SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S...THEN UPR 40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS RESULTS IN RELAXATION OF THE
VERY COLD CONDS THROUGH MID NEXT WK...BUT ALSO INTRODUCES PTNTL
INCRSG STORMINESS AND FORECAST CHALLENGES. WHILE A RETURN TO
EXTREMELY COLD CONDS NOT XPCD THROUGH BALANCE OF NEXT WK...PLENTY
OF COLD AIR WILL RMN IN SRN CANADA...WHICH MAY ADD TO ANY STM/PCPN
CHALLENGES.

SFC LO PRES TRACKS FM THE LAKES THROUGH NEW ENG SAT NGT/SUN...W/
ITS TRAILING CDFNT FOLLOWING ACRS THE FA (ON SUN) BRINGING INCRSD
PCPN CHCS (RA). GRADUAL DRYING SUN NGT...THEN A QUICK MOVING SYS
IN SWLY FLO ALOFT ARRIVES MON W/ PCPN CHCS (MNLY RA). ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE RETURNS BY TUE AS NEXT/COMPLEX STM SYS EJECTS FM
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY (TUE)...THEN CONTG TO TRACK
TO THE NE WED. MDLS AT THIS POINT HINTING AT LO LVL CAD AHD OF
THAT SYS (PREVENTING ANY QUICK WARMING).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE THAT THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILLL BRING AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SPREADING INTO SE PORTIONS. INCLUDED
MVFR CIGS AT ORF AND ECG FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. IFR CANNOT
BE RULED OUT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
10-15KT NE WIND EARLY TODAY WILL RELAX BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST...A SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS COULD APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AS CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW. THIS COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY CAA RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS N OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS S OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
N OF THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
* NORFOLK HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A TEMPERATURE
  OF 6 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 10 F IN 1934. THIS IS THE
  COLDEST READING SINCE IT WAS 5 DEG ON JAN 19, 1994.

* ELIZABETH CITY HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A
  TEMPERATURE OF 7 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 9 F IN 1934.

* SALISBURY HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A
  TEMPERATURE OF -6 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS IN 1940.

* WALLOPS ISLAND HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A
  TEMPERATURE OF 3 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 13 F IN 1986.

* RICHMOND HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 4 F THIS MORNING. THE RECORD
  LOW FOR TODAY IS -3 F FROM 1940.

* WFO WAKEFIELD DROPPED TO -5 F THIS MORNING. THIS IS ONLY THE
  THIRD TIME THAT AKQ HAS BEEN BELOW ZERO SINCE THE OFFICE OPENED
  (NEARLY 20 YEARS). OTHER BELOW ZERO READINGS WERE -5 F ON
  JAN 28, 2000...AND -4 F ON FEB 05, 1996.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...BMD/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1242 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

...MUCH OF CNTRL CWA UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH REST OF
THE DAY...

VERY HEALTHY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IMPACTS UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE AFTN...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE CWA. WV
LOOP SHOWS INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WITH COMMA
HEAD BACK OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS STRONG AS
UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WITH JET STREAK OVER
ONTARIO AND ANOTHER SLIDING TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AGEOSTROPIC
RESPONSE ONLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN HELPING
TO INCREASE THE ALREADY PRESENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SNOW THAT ARRIVED
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING WAS MOSTLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AT 285K AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW MOVING TO IWD-MQT CORRIDOR.
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES FROM DICKINSON
THROUGH ALGER COUNTIES PER THE 88D SNOW ALGORITHM USING A SLR OF
18:1. WV LOOP AND RADAR UPSTREAM/SFC OBS INDICATE WE STILL HAVE TO GO
THROUGH A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS AFTN.
RUC13/NAM12 BOTH SHOW THIS FAVORED AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN AND ALSO JUST
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SFC LOW LIFTING INTO NORTHEAST WI. SNOW WILL
ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY H85-H65 FRONTOGENESIS AND PERHAPS SOME
NEGATIVE EPV ATOP THAT FGEN WHICH COULD RESULT IN BANDED SNOW...FURTHER
BOOSTING SNOW TOTALS. OVERALL...EXPECT 3-5 INCHES OVER ROUGHLY THE
EAST 2/3 OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...IN THESE CNTRL CWA AREAS
HIGHLIGHTED...COULD SEE TOTALS OVER 6 INCHES FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO
ESCANABA...NORTH TO GWINN AND MUNISING.

UPGRADED AREAS IN THE CNTRL CWA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR EXPECTED
5-8" OF SNOW FALLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY
IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. OTHER THAN THE FAR EAST... WHERE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ARE STILL RESULTING IN BLSN AND WILL DO SO INTO THE
AFTN...WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR THE OTHER AREAS
AWAY FM THE CNTRL CWA KEPT THE ADVY GOING. ENDING TIME OF THESE
HEADLINES STILL LOOKS GOOD AT 00Z THIS EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN ONTARIO. IN THE BAND OF DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
FEATURE...RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN GOOD RADAR RETURNS FOR THE LAST
FEW HRS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE ERN FCST
AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PROBABLY PREVENTED MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND...AND MDOT WEBCAM/WEATHER STATION AT SENEY
INDICATES NOT MUCH GOING ON THERE DESPITE RADAR RETURNS. FARTHER N
TOWARD GRAND MARAIS...HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE IS SNOW FALLING IN THAT
AREA BASED ON INTENSITY OF RADAR RETURNS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
ONTARIO SYSTEM IS PASSING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE W...
ATTENTION IS ON SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SE SD/NE NEBRASKA
BORDER. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES E...SFC WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY...PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR MUCH
OF UPPER MI.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DEFINITELY TRENDED N AND W WITH SNOW BAND THAT
WILL ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE...AND PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE TRENED UP AS WELL.
OVERALL...A GOOD SNOW EVENT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP TODAY. RATHER
STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS IS INDICATED TO SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH A BAND OF LOW-MID FRONTOGENESIS. AT THE
UPPER LEVELS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME UPPER JET COUPLING BTWN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ONTARIO MID LEVEL LOW
AND LEFT EXIT OF JET ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
COMES TOGETHER RIGHT OVER UPPER MI. MIXING RATIOS OF 2G/KG ARE NOTED
AROUND 700MB...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS NOTED ABOVE...
DEFINITELY HAVE CONCERN THAT AMOUNTS COULD REACH 6 INCHES OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IF FOCUSED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPS. SOME
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR ROUGHLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM IRON RIVER TO MARQUETTE. HOURLY RUC13 MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN BEEFING UP PCPN AMOUNTS. 09Z RUN HAS AROUND 0.5 INCHES
ALONG THE AXIS MENTIONED. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS THE SNOW
AREA BECOMES ORGANIZED AND MORE INTENSE WHILE MOVING INTO UPPER MI.
HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WX ADVY TO COVER ALL BUT NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW
COUNTIES TODAY. FORTUNATELY...THE STRONG WINDS NOW OCCURRING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI WILL BE SUBSIDING AS THE HEAVIER SNOW ARRIVES.
IN THE END...BLSN MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A PLAYER ANYWHERE DURING THE
MAIN PERIOD OF SNOWFALL. FOR SNOWFALL...EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ADVY AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW PROBABLY IN A
WSW TO ENE BAND FROM ERN GOGEBIC/IRON/DICKINSON COUNTIES TO
BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES.

SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END FROM W TO E MID AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING. WNW TO W FLOW LES WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL
TO -16 TO -20C. HOWEVER...SHARP DROP OF INVERSION TO 3-4KFT COMBINED
WITH DRIER AIR SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT INTENSITY OF LES. ICE COVER ON
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE NEGATIVE FACTOR AS WELL. TEMPS ARE TRICKY. IF
WIND DECOUPLE AND CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT SUFFICIENTLY...TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT AREAS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD
EASILY FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE -20S. FCST REFLECTS A CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BELOW
ZERO. TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO OVER THE FAR NE FCST AREA. WIND
CHILL MAY BE NEAR ADVY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE W LATE
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY MORNING. THAT
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SW FLOW FRIDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
MAIN 500MB LOW SHIFTING INTO N HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC...AND THE NEXT WAVE
SINKING IN FROM ONTARIO. QUICKENED THE END TO THE LIKELY POPS OVER
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NEAR/EAST OF GRAND MARAIS FRIDAY AS SFC
WINDS BECOME MORE SW-W CUTTING OFF THE FLOW OF LINGERING MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ICE
COVERAGE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

GIVEN LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -10 TO 0 RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...COULD HAVE A FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 20F WIND CHILL READINGS
OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AVERAGING 5KTS OR
LESS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE...WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE HWO FOR
NOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE OUR WIND FCST TENDS
TO BE TOO HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

THE SW TO NE ORIENTED 500MB TROUGH SET UP FROM UT/CO TO FAR SE
MANITOBA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CUT BACK ON THE S STREAM SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE S
AND E CWA. FCST MODELS LOOK TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON A SFC LOW TRACK
FROM N TX SATURDAY MORNING TO S/CENTRAL IL AT 18Z..AND N IN TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 00Z SUNDAY. WHILE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SE.

COLDER AIR SLIDING IN HOWEVER WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF LES TO THE
W FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ON NW TO WNW WINDS AS 850MB TEMPS SLIDE
BACK INTO THE -15 TO -20C RANGE. WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LES WISE...AS NOTED ABOVE...IT WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF ICE COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR EXTREME /WIND CHILL WARNING/ COLD EVENTS ARE
FIGURED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
SYSTEM SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIP US TO THE S TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW TRACKS UP THE OH VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014

A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS UPPER MI WILL
BRING SNOW TO THE AREA THIS AFTN. EXPECT LIFR/IFR IN OCCASIONALL
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WORST CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT KSAW.
AFTER THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS
EVENING. BEST CHC FOR MORE PERSISTENT SHSN/IFR VIS WILL BE AT THE
MORE EXPOSED KCMX LOCATION WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND FROPA PRESENTING AN
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...BUT ICE COVERAGE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
MIGHT LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THESE SHSN. DOWNSLOPE NATURE
OF THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KSAW THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KIWD OVERNIGHT IF NOT SOONER
AS WINDS BACK SOME. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSILE EARLY THIS MORNING
E. WHILE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIMITED ELSEHWERE DUE
SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERING THE WATER...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN OVER E PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

A LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SHIFT E OF JAMES BAY THIS
EVENING...PULLING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE SE FROM ALBERTA TO S WI BY FRIDAY...WHILE BRINGING A
WEAK RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THEN ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH WILL MOVE
E ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY...WHICH WILL PASS A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005-006-011>013.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ004-007-010-014-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ002-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1055 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

...MUCH OF CNTRL CWA UPGRADED WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH REST OF
THE DAY...

VERY HEALTHY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IMPACTS UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE AFTN...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE CWA. WV
LOOP SHOWS INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WITH COMMA
HEAD BACK OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS STRONG AS
UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WITH JET STREAK OVER
ONTARIO AND ANOTHER SLIDING TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AGEOSTROPIC
RESPONSE ONLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN HELPING
TO INCREASE THE ALREADY PRESENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SNOW THAT ARRIVED
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING WAS MOSTLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AT 285K AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW MOVING TO IWD-MQT CORRIDOR.
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES FROM DICKINSON
THROUGH ALGER COUNTIES PER THE 88D SNOW ALGORITHM USING A SLR OF
18:1. WV LOOP AND RADAR UPSTREAM/SFC OBS INDICATE WE STILL HAVE TO GO
THROUGH A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS AFTN.
RUC13/NAM12 BOTH SHOW THIS FAVORED AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN AND ALSO JUST
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SFC LOW LIFTING INTO NORTHEAST WI. SNOW WILL
ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY H85-H65 FRONTOGENESIS AND PERHAPS SOME
NEGATIVE EPV ATOP THAT FGEN WHICH COULD RESULT IN BANDED SNOW...FURTHER
BOOSTING SNOW TOTALS. OVERALL...EXPECT 3-5 INCHES OVER ROUGHLY THE
EAST 2/3 OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...IN THESE CNTRL CWA AREAS
HIGHLIGHTED...COULD SEE TOTALS OVER 6 INCHES FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO
ESCANABA...NORTH TO GWINN AND MUNISING.

UPGRADED AREAS IN THE CNTRL CWA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR EXPECTED
5-8" OF SNOW FALLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY
IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. OTHER THAN THE FAR EAST... WHERE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ARE STILL RESULTING IN BLSN AND WILL DO SO INTO THE
AFTN...WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR THE OTHER AREAS
AWAY FM THE CNTRL CWA KEPT THE ADVY GOING. ENDING TIME OF THESE
HEADLINES STILL LOOKS GOOD AT 00Z THIS EVENING. &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN ONTARIO. IN THE BAND OF DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
FEATURE...RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN GOOD RADAR RETURNS FOR THE LAST
FEW HRS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE ERN FCST
AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PROBABLY PREVENTED MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND...AND MDOT WEBCAM/WEATHER STATION AT SENEY
INDICATES NOT MUCH GOING ON THERE DESPITE RADAR RETURNS. FARTHER N
TOWARD GRAND MARAIS...HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE IS SNOW FALLING IN THAT
AREA BASED ON INTENSITY OF RADAR RETURNS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
ONTARIO SYSTEM IS PASSING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE W...
ATTENTION IS ON SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SE SD/NE NEBRASKA
BORDER. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES E...SFC WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY...PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR MUCH
OF UPPER MI.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DEFINITELY TRENDED N AND W WITH SNOW BAND THAT
WILL ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE...AND PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE TRENED UP AS WELL.
OVERALL...A GOOD SNOW EVENT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP TODAY. RATHER
STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS IS INDICATED TO SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH A BAND OF LOW-MID FRONTOGENESIS. AT THE
UPPER LEVELS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME UPPER JET COUPLING BTWN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ONTARIO MID LEVEL LOW
AND LEFT EXIT OF JET ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
COMES TOGETHER RIGHT OVER UPPER MI. MIXING RATIOS OF 2G/KG ARE NOTED
AROUND 700MB...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS NOTED ABOVE...
DEFINITELY HAVE CONCERN THAT AMOUNTS COULD REACH 6 INCHES OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IF FOCUSED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPS. SOME
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR ROUGHLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM IRON RIVER TO MARQUETTE. HOURLY RUC13 MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN BEEFING UP PCPN AMOUNTS. 09Z RUN HAS AROUND 0.5 INCHES
ALONG THE AXIS MENTIONED. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS THE SNOW
AREA BECOMES ORGANIZED AND MORE INTENSE WHILE MOVING INTO UPPER MI.
HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WX ADVY TO COVER ALL BUT NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW
COUNTIES TODAY. FORTUNATELY...THE STRONG WINDS NOW OCCURRING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI WILL BE SUBSIDING AS THE HEAVIER SNOW ARRIVES.
IN THE END...BLSN MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A PLAYER ANYWHERE DURING THE
MAIN PERIOD OF SNOWFALL. FOR SNOWFALL...EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ADVY AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW PROBABLY IN A
WSW TO ENE BAND FROM ERN GOGEBIC/IRON/DICKINSON COUNTIES TO
BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES.

SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END FROM W TO E MID AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING. WNW TO W FLOW LES WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL
TO -16 TO -20C. HOWEVER...SHARP DROP OF INVERSION TO 3-4KFT COMBINED
WITH DRIER AIR SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT INTENSITY OF LES. ICE COVER ON
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE NEGATIVE FACTOR AS WELL. TEMPS ARE TRICKY. IF
WIND DECOUPLE AND CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT SUFFICIENTLY...TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT AREAS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD
EASILY FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE -20S. FCST REFLECTS A CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BELOW
ZERO. TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO OVER THE FAR NE FCST AREA. WIND
CHILL MAY BE NEAR ADVY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE W LATE
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY MORNING. THAT
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SW FLOW FRIDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
MAIN 500MB LOW SHIFTING INTO N HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC...AND THE NEXT WAVE
SINKING IN FROM ONTARIO. QUICKENED THE END TO THE LIKELY POPS OVER
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NEAR/EAST OF GRAND MARAIS FRIDAY AS SFC
WINDS BECOME MORE SW-W CUTTING OFF THE FLOW OF LINGERING MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ICE
COVERAGE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

GIVEN LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -10 TO 0 RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...COULD HAVE A FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 20F WIND CHILL READINGS
OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AVERAGING 5KTS OR
LESS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE...WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE HWO FOR
NOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE OUR WIND FCST TENDS
TO BE TOO HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

THE SW TO NE ORIENTED 500MB TROUGH SET UP FROM UT/CO TO FAR SE
MANITOBA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CUT BACK ON THE S STREAM SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE S
AND E CWA. FCST MODELS LOOK TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON A SFC LOW TRACK
FROM N TX SATURDAY MORNING TO S/CENTRAL IL AT 18Z..AND N IN TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 00Z SUNDAY. WHILE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SE.

COLDER AIR SLIDING IN HOWEVER WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF LES TO THE
W FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ON NW TO WNW WINDS AS 850MB TEMPS SLIDE
BACK INTO THE -15 TO -20C RANGE. WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LES WISE...AS NOTED ABOVE...IT WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF ICE COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR EXTREME /WIND CHILL WARNING/ COLD EVENTS ARE
FIGURED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
SYSTEM SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIP US TO THE S TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW TRACKS UP THE OH VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS UPPER MI WILL
BRING SNOW TO THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW MID TO LATE MORNING. HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT KSAW...RESULTING IN SEVERAL HRS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS...MVFR WX WILL RETURN. BEST CHC FOR MORE
PERSISTENT SHSN/IFR VIS WILL BE AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX LOCATION
WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND FROPA PRESENTING AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...
BUT ICE COVERAGE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MIGHT LIMIT THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THESE SHSN. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KSAW THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KIWD OVERNIGHT IF NOT SOONER AS WINDS BACK
SOME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSILE EARLY THIS MORNING
E. WHILE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIMITED ELSEHWERE DUE
SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERING THE WATER...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN OVER E PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

A LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SHIFT E OF JAMES BAY THIS
EVENING...PULLING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE SE FROM ALBERTA TO S WI BY FRIDAY...WHILE BRINGING A
WEAK RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THEN ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH WILL MOVE
E ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY...WHICH WILL PASS A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005-006-011>013.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ004-007-010-014-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ002-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 707 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN ONTARIO. IN THE BAND OF DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
FEATURE...RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN GOOD RADAR RETURNS FOR THE LAST
FEW HRS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE ERN FCST
AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PROBABLY PREVENTED MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND...AND MDOT WEBCAM/WEATHER STATION AT SENEY
INDICATES NOT MUCH GOING ON THERE DESPITE RADAR RETURNS. FARTHER N
TOWARD GRAND MARAIS...HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE IS SNOW FALLING IN THAT
AREA BASED ON INTENSITY OF RADAR RETURNS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
ONTARIO SYSTEM IS PASSING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE W...
ATTENTION IS ON SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SE SD/NE NEBRASKA
BORDER. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES E...SFC WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY...PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR MUCH
OF UPPER MI.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DEFINITELY TRENDED N AND W WITH SNOW BAND THAT
WILL ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE...AND PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE TRENED UP AS WELL.
OVERALL...A GOOD SNOW EVENT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP TODAY. RATHER
STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS IS INDICATED TO SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH A BAND OF LOW-MID FRONTOGENESIS. AT THE
UPPER LEVELS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME UPPER JET COUPLING BTWN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ONTARIO MID LEVEL LOW
AND LEFT EXIT OF JET ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
COMES TOGETHER RIGHT OVER UPPER MI. MIXING RATIOS OF 2G/KG ARE NOTED
AROUND 700MB...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS NOTED ABOVE...
DEFINITELY HAVE CONCERN THAT AMOUNTS COULD REACH 6 INCHES OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IF FOCUSED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPS. SOME
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR ROUGHLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM IRON RIVER TO MARQUETTE. HOURLY RUC13 MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN BEEFING UP PCPN AMOUNTS. 09Z RUN HAS AROUND 0.5 INCHES
ALONG THE AXIS MENTIONED. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS THE SNOW
AREA BECOMES ORGANIZED AND MORE INTENSE WHILE MOVING INTO UPPER MI.
HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WX ADVY TO COVER ALL BUT NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW
COUNTIES TODAY. FORTUNATELY...THE STRONG WINDS NOW OCCURRING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI WILL BE SUBSIDING AS THE HEAVIER SNOW ARRIVES.
IN THE END...BLSN MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A PLAYER ANYWHERE DURING THE
MAIN PERIOD OF SNOWFALL. FOR SNOWFALL...EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ADVY AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW PROBABLY IN A
WSW TO ENE BAND FROM ERN GOGEBIC/IRON/DICKINSON COUNTIES TO
BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES.

SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END FROM W TO E MID AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING. WNW TO W FLOW LES WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL
TO -16 TO -20C. HOWEVER...SHARP DROP OF INVERSION TO 3-4KFT COMBINED
WITH DRIER AIR SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT INTENSITY OF LES. ICE COVER ON
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE NEGATIVE FACTOR AS WELL. TEMPS ARE TRICKY. IF
WIND DECOUPLE AND CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT SUFFICIENTLY...TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT AREAS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD
EASILY FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE -20S. FCST REFLECTS A CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BELOW
ZERO. TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO OVER THE FAR NE FCST AREA. WIND
CHILL MAY BE NEAR ADVY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE W LATE
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY MORNING. THAT
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SW FLOW FRIDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
MAIN 500MB LOW SHIFTING INTO N HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC...AND THE NEXT WAVE
SINKING IN FROM ONTARIO. QUICKENED THE END TO THE LIKELY POPS OVER
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NEAR/EAST OF GRAND MARAIS FRIDAY AS SFC
WINDS BECOME MORE SW-W CUTTING OFF THE FLOW OF LINGERING MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ICE
COVERAGE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

GIVEN LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -10 TO 0 RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...COULD HAVE A FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 20F WIND CHILL READINGS
OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AVERAGING 5KTS OR
LESS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE...WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE HWO FOR
NOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE OUR WIND FCST TENDS
TO BE TOO HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

THE SW TO NE ORIENTED 500MB TROUGH SET UP FROM UT/CO TO FAR SE
MANITOBA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CUT BACK ON THE S STREAM SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE S
AND E CWA. FCST MODELS LOOK TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON A SFC LOW TRACK
FROM N TX SATURDAY MORNING TO S/CENTRAL IL AT 18Z..AND N IN TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 00Z SUNDAY. WHILE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SE.

COLDER AIR SLIDING IN HOWEVER WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF LES TO THE
W FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ON NW TO WNW WINDS AS 850MB TEMPS SLIDE
BACK INTO THE -15 TO -20C RANGE. WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LES WISE...AS NOTED ABOVE...IT WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF ICE COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR EXTREME /WIND CHILL WARNING/ COLD EVENTS ARE
FIGURED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
SYSTEM SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIP US TO THE S TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW TRACKS UP THE OH VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS UPPER MI WILL
BRING SNOW TO THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW MID TO LATE MORNING. HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT KSAW...RESULTING IN SEVERAL HRS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS...MVFR WX WILL RETURN. BEST CHC FOR MORE
PERSISTENT SHSN/IFR VIS WILL BE AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX LOCATION
WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND FROPA PRESENTING AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...
BUT ICE COVERAGE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MIGHT LIMIT THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THESE SHSN. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KSAW THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KIWD OVERNIGHT IF NOT SOONER AS WINDS BACK
SOME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSILE EARLY THIS MORNING
E. WHILE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIMITED ELSEHWERE DUE
SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERING THE WATER...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN OVER E PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

A LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SHIFT E OF JAMES BAY THIS
EVENING...PULLING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE SE FROM ALBERTA TO S WI BY FRIDAY...WHILE BRINGING A
WEAK RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THEN ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH WILL MOVE
E ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY...WHICH WILL PASS A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ004>007-010>014-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ002-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 545 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN ONTARIO. IN THE BAND OF DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
FEATURE...RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN GOOD RADAR RETURNS FOR THE LAST
FEW HRS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE ERN FCST
AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PROBABLY PREVENTED MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND...AND MDOT WEBCAM/WEATHER STATION AT SENEY
INDICATES NOT MUCH GOING ON THERE DESPITE RADAR RETURNS. FARTHER N
TOWARD GRAND MARAIS...HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE IS SNOW FALLING IN THAT
AREA BASED ON INTENSITY OF RADAR RETURNS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
ONTARIO SYSTEM IS PASSING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE W...
ATTENTION IS ON SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SE SD/NE NEBRASKA
BORDER. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES E...SFC WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY...PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR MUCH
OF UPPER MI.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DEFINITELY TRENDED N AND W WITH SNOW BAND THAT
WILL ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE...AND PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE TRENED UP AS WELL.
OVERALL...A GOOD SNOW EVENT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP TODAY. RATHER
STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS IS INDICATED TO SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH A BAND OF LOW-MID FRONTOGENESIS. AT THE
UPPER LEVELS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME UPPER JET COUPLING BTWN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ONTARIO MID LEVEL LOW
AND LEFT EXIT OF JET ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
COMES TOGETHER RIGHT OVER UPPER MI. MIXING RATIOS OF 2G/KG ARE NOTED
AROUND 700MB...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS NOTED ABOVE...
DEFINITELY HAVE CONCERN THAT AMOUNTS COULD REACH 6 INCHES OR
MORE...ESPECIALLY IF FOCUSED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPS. SOME
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR ROUGHLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM IRON RIVER TO MARQUETTE. HOURLY RUC13 MODEL RUNS
HAVE BEEN BEEFING UP PCPN AMOUNTS. 09Z RUN HAS AROUND 0.5 INCHES
ALONG THE AXIS MENTIONED. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS THE SNOW
AREA BECOMES ORGANIZED AND MORE INTENSE WHILE MOVING INTO UPPER MI.
HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WX ADVY TO COVER ALL BUT NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW
COUNTIES TODAY. FORTUNATELY...THE STRONG WINDS NOW OCCURRING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI WILL BE SUBSIDING AS THE HEAVIER SNOW ARRIVES.
IN THE END...BLSN MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A PLAYER ANYWHERE DURING THE
MAIN PERIOD OF SNOWFALL. FOR SNOWFALL...EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ADVY AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW PROBABLY IN A
WSW TO ENE BAND FROM ERN GOGEBIC/IRON/DICKINSON COUNTIES TO
BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES.

SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN/END FROM W TO E MID AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING. WNW TO W FLOW LES WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL
TO -16 TO -20C. HOWEVER...SHARP DROP OF INVERSION TO 3-4KFT COMBINED
WITH DRIER AIR SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT INTENSITY OF LES. ICE COVER ON
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE NEGATIVE FACTOR AS WELL. TEMPS ARE TRICKY. IF
WIND DECOUPLE AND CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT SUFFICIENTLY...TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT AREAS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD
EASILY FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE -20S. FCST REFLECTS A CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BELOW
ZERO. TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO OVER THE FAR NE FCST AREA. WIND
CHILL MAY BE NEAR ADVY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE W LATE
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY MORNING. THAT
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SW FLOW FRIDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
MAIN 500MB LOW SHIFTING INTO N HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC...AND THE NEXT WAVE
SINKING IN FROM ONTARIO. QUICKENED THE END TO THE LIKELY POPS OVER
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NEAR/EAST OF GRAND MARAIS FRIDAY AS SFC
WINDS BECOME MORE SW-W CUTTING OFF THE FLOW OF LINGERING MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ICE
COVERAGE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA.

GIVEN LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -10 TO 0 RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...COULD HAVE A FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 20F WIND CHILL READINGS
OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AVERAGING 5KTS OR
LESS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE...WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE HWO FOR
NOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE OUR WIND FCST TENDS
TO BE TOO HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

THE SW TO NE ORIENTED 500MB TROUGH SET UP FROM UT/CO TO FAR SE
MANITOBA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CUT BACK ON THE S STREAM SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE S
AND E CWA. FCST MODELS LOOK TO BE CONSOLIDATING ON A SFC LOW TRACK
FROM N TX SATURDAY MORNING TO S/CENTRAL IL AT 18Z..AND N IN TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 00Z SUNDAY. WHILE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SE.

COLDER AIR SLIDING IN HOWEVER WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF LES TO THE
W FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ON NW TO WNW WINDS AS 850MB TEMPS SLIDE
BACK INTO THE -15 TO -20C RANGE. WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LES WISE...AS NOTED ABOVE...IT WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF ICE COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR EXTREME /WIND CHILL WARNING/ COLD EVENTS ARE
FIGURED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
SYSTEM SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIP US TO THE S TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW TRACKS UP THE OH VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

GUSTY S-SW WINDS EARLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WILL
DIMINISH BY SUNRISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
SINCE THIS SSW FLOW IS FAIRLY DRY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREDOMINATE UNTIL THE COLD FNT ARRIVES. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG
THE COLD FNT WL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF -SN TO UPR MI THIS MRNG INTO THE
AFTN...RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS...MVFR WX WL RETURN. BEST CHC FOR MORE PERSISTENT SHSN/IFR
VSBYS WL BE AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE
FROPA PRESENTING AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...BUT ICE COVERAGE OVER
WRN LK SUP MIGHT LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THESE SHSN.
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT SAW THIS
EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSILE EARLY THIS MORNING
E. WHILE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE LIMITED ELSEHWERE DUE
SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERING THE WATER...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN OVER E PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

A LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SHIFT E OF JAMES BAY THIS
EVENING...PULLING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE SE FROM ALBERTA TO S WI BY FRIDAY...WHILE BRINGING A
WEAK RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THEN ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH WILL MOVE
E ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY...WHICH WILL PASS A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ004>006-010>013.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ002-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ248-250.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 607 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014

FAST MOVING...THOUGH HARD HITTING SNOW STORM STILL ON TRACK TO
IMPACT THE AREA THIS MORNING. EVENING SHIFT LAST NIGHT DID AN
EXCELLENT JOB IN RAMPING UP POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT
WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT TO SLOW DOWN THE
ONSET OF SNOW ALONG WITH ITS DEPARTURE ALONG WITH NARROWING THE
SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOW/QPF TO REFLECT WHAT IS SEEN WITH THE
HRRR/HOPWRF/RAP...WHICH ARE NEARLY LAYING ON TOP OF EACH OTHER WITH
ABOUT A 50 MILE WIDE BAND OF QPF GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH
STRETCHING FROM MONTEVIDEO...TO THE NRN TWIN CITIES METRO AND OVER
TO LADYSMITH. WITHIN THIS BAND...CURRENT GRIDS HAVE SNOW AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW. YOU GET OUT OF THIS BAND AND AMOUNTS
WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY...WITH JUST 1-3 INCHES CURRENTLY PREDICTED FOR
THE REST OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT THE HEADLINES...THEY STILL LOOK TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TOSS AROUND THE IDEA OF EXTENDING THE
WARNING DUE WEST FROM IT/S CURRENT LOCATION OUT TO THE SODAK
BORDER.  THOUGH WARNING TYPE SNOWS /6 INCHES OR MORE/ WILL BE
ISOLATED...AS THE EVENING SHIFT POINTED OUT...THE SEVERE IMPACTS TO
THE MORNING COMMUTE KEEP THIS A WARRANTED WARNING.

LOOKING AT WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW...A 150 JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY
WORKING ACROSS NRN NEB. TO THE NORTH OF THIS...A POTENT H4 PV
ANOMALY IS MOVING ACROSS SODAK. UPPER DIVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE PV
FEATURE AND WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET HAS LED TO
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN H85-H7 WINDS ACROSS ERN NEB TO UP OVER 60
KTS. THIS IS RESULTING IN INTENSE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THAT AT 3 AM STRETCHED FROM A 992 MB SFC LOW NEAR SIOUX
FALLS UP THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES. THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT /ON THE 295 K
SFC/ IS RUNNING RIGHT INTO A STRENGTHENING BAND OF FGEN THAT HAS
BEEN MOST EVIDENT BY THE SLOWLY DESCENDING CIGS FROM WEST CENTRAL MN
OVER TO THE US-8 CORRIDOR IN WI. THIS FGEN BAND HAS BEEN SPENDING A
COUPLE OF HOURS MOISTENING THE ATMO AND WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE
THOSE EFFORTS PAY OFF...WITH SNOW RAPIDLY EXPANDING ALONG THE FGEN
AFTER ABOUT 230 THIS MORNING. WITH ALL OF THIS HAPPENING...BEST LI/S
OFF THE NAM ARE DOWN AROUND +5...INDICATIVE OF AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
WEAK STABILITY AND PRIMED FOR MESOSCALE BANDING...WHICH IS EXACTLY
WHAT HAVE HAVE BEEN SEEING ON THE KABR RADAR SINCE ABOUT 7Z. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT THIS MORNING...AS THE RAP
ALONG WITH SOME OF THE HOPWRF MEMBERS HAVE BEEN PUMPING OUT SNOWFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND.

THIS SNOW WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLOUDS LOOKING TO DEPART WITH THE SNOW AS WELL. NW WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN TEMPS SLOWLY
FALLING ALL AFTERNOON. FOR THOSE WINDS...WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP
AROUND 30 MPH DOWN THE MN RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS
AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE AGAIN...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES TO WARRANT
KEEPING ANY HEADLINES GOING BEHIND THE SNOW.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM CANADA...AS DO TEMPERATURES
BACK BELOW ZERO. HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RUNNING AROUND -20 IN CENTRAL
MN...-10 IN THE TWIN CITIES AND AROUND -5 ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
TACK ON WINDS UP IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE AND END UP WITH YET ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 BELOW ZERO
AND YET ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVY. DECIDED JUST TO GET THE INEVITABLE
OVER WITH AND ISSUED THE NEXT WIND CHILL ADVY FOR OUR EVER GROWING
STACK. FOR NOW..JUST ISSUED IT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT IT IS A BIT
MORE IFFY DOWN TOWARD SW MN AND THE IA BORDER...SO THE DAY SHIFT CAN
ALWAYS TRIM SOME COUNTIES OFF IF NEED BE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE POSITIVE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN 3/4 OF CANADA. THE ONLY NOTABLE CHGS IN THE UPPER FLOW
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THE INCREASE IN THE RIDGE IN THE
SE U.S. THE MEAN FLOW FROM 85-50H REMAINS FROM THE NORTH POLE SO THE
CONTINUED REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL REMAIN THRU
NEXT WEEK. THE ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AND THE SOUTHERN JET ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...SLIGHT CHC/S OF FLURRIES/-SN WILL ACCOMPANY SATURDAY/S WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS...SO ANY ARCTIC OUTBREAKS SHOULDN/T
BE AS BAD AS IN THE FIRST THREE WEEKS OF JAN. HOWEVER...I DON/T WANT
TO DOWNPLAY THE COLDER WIND CHILL VALUES AS SEVERAL TIMES IN THE
COURSE OF SUN/WED OF NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL FALL BLW -25F.
LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT DEVIATED FROM THE CURRENT LONG-WAVE
PATTERN THRU THE MIDDLE OF FEB. UNTIL THIS PATTERN CHGS...BLW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014

SNOW STARTING TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO A SFC LOW OVER NE IOWA AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED OUT FROM FRM
TO THE SE TWIN CITIES METRO AND RICE LAKE. SNOW HAS BEEN HEAVIEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH TO THIS POINT VSBYS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO GO BELOW 1SM. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE TUMBLED TO UNDER 500 FT FOR
MANY AREAS...SO THINK VIS WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW. WHERE SNOW BROKE
OUT FIRST WILL LIKELY BE WHERE 5-6 INCH TOTALS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING...WHICH MEANS RWF/MSP/RNH WILL BE GETTING THE DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM THIS SNOW. CURRENT TAFS REFLECTED CONDITIONS QUITE
WELL...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE IN
EXISTING TAFS WAS TO REMOVE TEMPO 1/4SM GROUPS AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RESPOND. ALSO HAD TO HOLD ON TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN WRN WI
A LITTLE LONGER. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR QUICK IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR IN
THE WAKE OF THE SNOW WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT.

KMSP...STARTED OUT WITH 1/2SM VIS...THOUGH MAY TAKE TO AS LATE AS
13Z TO GET THERE. AT ANY RATE...WITH MIC ALREADY THERE AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE REGION DROPPING QUICKLY...DECIDED TO JUST COME OUT
THE GATES FIRING WITH THE VIS. WILL BE FAST MOVING...AND HAVE BEEN
FOLLOWING THE HRRR ALL MORNING FOR PUSHING THE SNOW OUT...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRETTY STABLE...ALONG WITH MATCHING TRENDS TO THE WEST.
WITH THE BAND LOOKING TO SET UP RIGHT OVER MSP...GAINING
CONFIDENCE IN MSP SEEING THE HIGHER END OF SNOW TOTALS UP IN THE
AREA OF 5 INCHES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5KTS EARLY BCMG NW AT 10G15KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>050-054>058-064-065-067-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     MNZ053-060>063-067>070-074>078-082>085-091>093.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>066-073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-
     066-068>070.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ026-028.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>025-
     027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1201 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

SIGNIFICANT UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE 00Z NAM HAVE COME
CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH THE
BAND OF SNOW. IT WILL BE A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING SEVERE IMPACTS.

THE LOW CURRENTLY IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD AND WILL TRACK
ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
THE SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN A RELATIVELY DATA SPARSE AREA OF
SOUTHEASTERN MT...BUT MILES CITY HAS REPORTED 1/2-3/4 MILE SNOW
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE ROTATES EASTWARD...THE
700 MB TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER MN AT 12Z AND CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVER WI BY 18Z. DEEP OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ AND A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE FOR LATE JANUARY WITH PW VALUES OF AROUND 0.4 INCHES
/ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE/...SHOULD WORK TO PRODUCE VERY INTENSE
SNOW RATES AT TIMES. THESE SNOW RATES COULD REACH 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT...SURE TO WREAK HAVOC WITH THE
MORNING COMMUTE. THE HOPWRF...HRRR...AND RAP ALL GENERALLY AGREE
WITH THE LOCATION/AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW STRETCHING FROM GLENCOE TO
THE TWIN CITIES AND RICE LAKE. NEW 00Z NAM HAS COME INTO LINE WITH
THIS IDEA AS WELL SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO POST A
WARNING ALONG THIS AXIS AND AN ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. FUTURE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE REST OF THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
IS GENERATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING
TOMORROW.  THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED...AS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO REACH THE METRO FROM ROUGHLY 6AM-9AM.  A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS POSTED AFTER COLLABORATION WITH ARX AND
DMX...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN IN THE ARX CWA.
STILL...ALBERT LEA THROUGH RED WIND...AND OVER TO EAU CLAIRE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ROUGHLY 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE PEAK TRAVEL TIME THURSDAY MORNING.  THE 29.12 RUN
OF THE ECMWF INCREASED QPF TO THE NORTH AND BETTER MATCHES THE NCEP
MODELS.  PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED VERY GOOD...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE...MAINLY TO THE TIMING WHICH DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE SNOW
BY ABOUT TWO HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MN INTO
WESTERN WI.  THE GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
THIS AREA...PRIMARILY FALLING FROM 12Z TO 18Z TOMORROW. THE LIFT
STILL LOOKS GOOD ON THE 295K SURFACE AS THE STRONG UPGLIDE BEGINS TO
COINCIDE WITH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT BY 09Z ACROSS WESTERN MN. FOR
THE METRO...2"-3" STILL LOOKS ON TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION...WITH
CLOSER TO 1"-2" ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND
GET BLUSTERY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW MACHINE SHUTS OFF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

LONGER TERM TRENDS CHANGE LITTLE AS FAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. WE REMAIN LOCKED IN THE
COLDER THAN NORMAL REGIME THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL
ARCTIC COLD FRONTS SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST EXITS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY GENERATE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

THEN ON SATURDAY....THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT MAY STILL
MUSTER ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. MOST DETERMINISTIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHTER QPF IN EASTERN AREA...WITH
THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING TH MAIN FOCUS MORE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
MN DURING THE PERIOD.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS. USED BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...AS WE HAVE BEEN
RUNNING A BIT COLD OF LATE IN VERIFICATION WITH THESE COLD AIR
INTRUSIONS. VERY LITTLE SNOW COVER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
MINNESOTA...SO THERE IS OPPORTUNITY TO WARM A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
AHEAD OF EAST OF THE FRONTS.  WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND FOR NEXT
MONDAY AS WELL...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR SURGE
COMING TOWARD MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

THE CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF MDT-HVY SNOW THURSDAY MORNING IS
VERY HIGH. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z TAFS WITH TIMING
GENERALLY THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS TAFS. THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE
BETWEEN 09-12Z AND QUICKLY BECOME MODERATE OR HEAVY DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES. LIFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR
A PERIOD OF 3-4 HOURS UNTIL IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING.
TOTAL ACCUMS OF 3-6 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY WITH HOURLY RATES AS HIGH
AS 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE. UNTIL THE SNOW ARRIVES...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER THE SNOW
ENDS.

KMSP...THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME AROUND 11Z LATE TONIGHT AND
QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY SHORTLY THEREAFTER UNTIL ABOUT 16Z.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES WILL FALL ON
THE TERMINAL DURING THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5KTS EARLY BCMG NW AT 10G15KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ044-045-067-074>078-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ041>043-
     047>050-054>058-064-065-073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-066-068>070.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
     WIZ026-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>025-027.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 805 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 805 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2014

Surface temps are critical to this forecast. That said, temps are
colder than nearly all available guidance, with the coldest
guidance from the RAP performing the best. Surface cold front has
cleared the southeastern CWA, or SE of SLO-SAR-FAM. However,
evidence is increasing that this front is slowing down and in the
process of stalling out with pres falls in advance of it
effectively nil.

Heading thru late night, the front is expected to buckle back to
the N as a warm front as a wave of lo pres develops and pushes
into far SW MO by 12z/Sat. But it will take much of the night for
any reaction to the front up our way and feel the RAP sfc temps
continue to handle this the best. This would result in sub
freezing temps until between 3 to 6am for STL metro from SE to NW
with a more significant surge expected per previous fcst into Jeff
City and Bowling Green MO.

Pcpn trends mainly remain the same: drizzle until shortly after
midnight when we see a transition to freezing rain beginning in
central MO first, and then expanding eastward into STL metro late
tonight. ACARS soundings from Lambert back this up well with the
key ice nuclei region not being hit until much further up than
usual in the atmosphere: 550-600mb. NE MO and W-Central IL may see
FZRA, but will probably linger with sleet and snow more late
tonight into Saturday and this is also reflective of previous
forecast.

Putting it all together, main adjustment is to extend the winter
wx advisory until 6am from continuing freezing liquid pcpn and
minor ice accums with the understanding that some southern areas
can be cancelled early depending on when that warm surge occurs.
All other headlines remain the same.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2014

This morning`s guidance continued the warming trend across the area
for tonight/Saturday precip.  Occasional light precip, snow/drizzle
will continue to be possible through this evening across the area.
Expect little if any additional accumulation to the snow which has
already fallen across northeast Missouri and West Central Illinois
this evening.  The heavier precip should hold off until after
midnight...most likely until after 300 am.  Precipitation is
expected to generally stay all rain along and south of I-44/I-64
tonight.  A mix of freezing/frozen precipitation types will occur
over most of the rest of the area, with snow predominant across
northern portions of the CWFA.  The freezing line will be creeping
slowly north-northwest through the night as low level warm advection
increases due to the approaching low level shortwave.  As this
happens, precipitation intensity will increase and a significant
amount of sleet/snow/and freezing rain is expected across parts of
central and northeast Missouri as well as west central and southwest
Illinois.  Have upgraded to winter storm warnings in northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois for up to 6 inches of snow as
well as 2 to 3 tenths of an inch of ice.  The heaviest snow should
stay north of a line from Shelbyville MO to Mt. Sterling IL.  Expect
2 to 3 tenths of an inch of ice accumulation in a band from north of
Columbia MO to Meredosia IL, with the higher amounts on the
northeast end of that band.  As the wave moves northeast of the area
late Saturday morning, the cold front will push through bringing the
precip to an end.

Can`t stress enough, this ice accumulation forecast is highly
dependent on surface temps and temps aloft overnight and Saturday.
Small variations will likely cause the forecast to change as the
event unfolds.

Sunday and Monday continue to look dry and cold as another Canadian
high drops into the Mississippi Valley and drifts east into the Ohio
Valley.  Precipitation from a shortwave passing to our south Sunday
night looks should stay suppressed across the Lower Mississippi
Valley by the strong surface ridge.  Temperatures are expected to
remain 10 to 20 degrees below normal through the period.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2014

(Monday night through Friday night)
Precipitation should spread ewd into the wrn portion of the forecast
area late Monday night as a sly low level jet brings low-mid level
waa and increasing low level moisture to MO ahead of an approaching
upper level trough.  This precipitation should spread into the rest
of the forecast area Tuesday mrng as upper level divergence
increases over the entire area as the negatively tilted upper level
trough approaches.  There is still some model differences with
regards to the track and strength of individual shortwaves, the 850
mb low, and surface low.  The ECMWF is further south/southeast with
the track of the main shortwave or vort max, 850 mb low and surface
low, while the GFS is further north/northwest and hence warmer with
its 850 mb temperatures and partial thickness forecasts.  For now
will lean toward the ECMWF solution as it has been pretty consistent
from run to run, although will not disregard the possibility of a
wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain across the srn and sern
portion of our forecast area if its solution turns out to be a
little too cold.  The ECMWF model moves the main vort max quickly
newd through sern MO and srn IL Tuesday evng, with a deepening 850
mb low ahead of it moving newd through sern MO and srn IL Tuesday
aftn into the evng, and a surface low moving newd through wrn
portions of TN and KY late Tuesday aftn and evng.  Snow is expected
across the entire area on Tuesday with the waa, within the warm
conveyor belt.  There should also be freezing rain and sleet across
portions of sern MO and swrn IL, south and east of STL Tuesday into
Tuesday evng.  The dry slot will move newd into sern MO and swrn IL
Tuesday evng shutting down significant precipitation across this
area, but deformation zone snow will occur across nern MO and w
cntrl IL at least Tuesday evng and possibly into the overnight hours
as well.  The highest snow accumulations should occur across nern MO
and w cntrl IL and possibly also into cntrl MO where the
precipitation type should remain all snow, plus duration of the
precipitation will be the longest due to the waa forced snow
followed by the deformation zone snow.  Only lingering flurries are
expected on Wednesday with unseasonably cold air filtering sewd into
the region as a strong 1040-1045 mb surface high builds sewd into
our area with 850 mb temperatures falling to around -9 to -13
degrees C Wednesday night.  It appears that a sw flow shortwave may
bring more snow to our area on Friday and Friday night.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 556 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2014

For COU...Expect FZDZ to continue thru the eve hours with an
increase in intensity to FZRA around 05z. However, brief periods
of SN are possible this eve as nearby obs are currently reporting
SN. FZRA is expected to persist thru Sat morning before changing
to PL and eventually coming to an end during the mid afternoon
hours.

For UIN...Expect SN to persist overnight with brief periods of FZDZ
possible as ice nucleation may be lost briefly. As temps aloft
warm, expect SN to at least mix with PL around sunrise Sat. The
SNPL will probably change entirely over to PL and possibly even
mix with or change to FZRA during the morning. Regardless, precip
shud change over to all SN again around Noon Sat before coming to
and end during the afternoon.

For KSTL/SUS/CPS...Expect FZDZ to persist thru at least the
evening hours. Expect an area of RA to move newd into the region
shortly after Midnight, but sfc temps may still be around
freezing. Will leave as RA for now and continue to monitor trends.
RA will continue thru Sat morning and into the afternoon. Precip
is expected to end as the cold air arrives, but may briefly change
to PL and/or FZRA just before the precip ends.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Saturday FOR Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Jefferson MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-
     St. Louis MO-Washington MO.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Saturday FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Lincoln MO-
     Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Warren MO.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST Saturday FOR Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Saturday FOR Bond IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     St. Clair IL.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Saturday FOR Calhoun IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST Saturday FOR Adams IL-Brown
     IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1138 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

REST OF THE NIGHT: CLOUDY AND MILD. BREEZY E OF HWY 183. S WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 32 KTS AT TIMES.

CLOUDS/LOW TEMPS/WINDS AND WIND GUSTS HAVE ALL BEEN INCREASED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FCST.

THE COLD FRONT IS OVER SRN SD AND NEARING THE NEB BORDER AT 05Z.
ITS PASSAGE WILL BE ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO.
THE 03Z RAP SUGGESTS IT WILL BE NEARING I-80 AT DAYBREAK AND TO THE
NEB-KS BORDER BY 15Z.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE WAVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION INCREASES
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CHANGED THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOR THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME THE WEST LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST RECIPIENT OF
THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION WHILE THE SOUTH
LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL IN
THE TEENS FOR LOWS AND 20S FOR HIGHS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BRING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY THEN WARMER ON SUNDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WAVE. THE GFS HAS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF THAT HAS MORE OF A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS A LITTLE SLOWER. EITHER WAY HAVE KEPT
SOME SNOW CHANCES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

REST OF THE NIGHT: VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. SSW WINDS WILL GUST UP
TO 32 KTS. LLWS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT THRU 09Z WITH THE 50 KTS AS
LOW AS 1K FT. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DECREASE WINDS AROUND
10Z WITH A WSHFT TO WSW. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THU: VFR CIGS AROUND 15K FT. SOME 2500 FT STRATOCU MAY FORM FOR A
TIME...ESPECIALLY 14Z-18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND WILL GUST
24-34 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO NNE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THU EVE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 5K FT BY 05Z. IFR -SN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING. NNE
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1126 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A POTENT WAVE ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A 160 KNOT JET AT 300 MB AND 150M HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SD/NE/WY BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALMOST DUE EAST TONIGHT AS THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES. NEW 00Z NAM AND LATEST SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF THE RAP ALL SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW ALONG THE
NE/SD BORDER THROUGH THE NIGHT. INITIALLY...IT WILL PROBABLY JUST
BE RAIN AS TEMPS AHEAD OF THE LOW REMAIN QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER
30S. STILL COULD BE MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT ALSO AM
THINKING PRECIP MAY EVEN MOVE OUT BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
EITHER WAY...IT`S NOT A VERY BIG SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA WITH FAIRLY
LOW POPS EXPECTED. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THE TRAILING END OF THE
COLD FRONT COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE INCREASE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP
DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH WA. THIS SYSTEM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 120 KT H25
JET AND 130 M H5 HEIGHT FALLS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE A WARM AND BREEZY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK ALONG THE
SD/NEB BORDER OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IA ON THU. AS PREVIOUSLY
NOTED MUCH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GO NORTH OF
OUR FA OVER SD/MN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES BY TONIGHT AND THIS
MAY STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER OUR
EXTREME NORTH...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND NLG TO TQE
TO HNR. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THAT A MIX OF
LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANYTHING FALLS. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY ICE ACCUMULATION ANY ANY SNOWFALL WOULD BE A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF LESS.

A BREAK IN WEATHER SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AS THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ISN`T
EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS NEB/IA OVERNIGHT THU AND ACT ON THE PRE-EXISTING
THERMAL GRADIENT TO PRODUCE ENOUGH FRONTAL CIRCULATION FOR LIGHT
PRECIP. THE THERMAL PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY THIS TIME.
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT WAVE SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY FRI AFTERNOON AS THE CIRCULATION ENDS. AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST 2/3RD OF THE
FA...BUT AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
ANOTHER LITTLE BREAK IS EXPECTED IN THE LIFT IS EXPECTED FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE A BIT STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS...HAVE
BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND STATIC STABILITY APPEARS
WEAKER. THUS A STRONGER FRONTAL CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN FA AND 1-2 INCHES APPEAR
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FA WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH BOTH EVENTS TO ACCUMULATE SNOW DUE TO LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST SNOW TOTALS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NORFOLK TO OMAHA TO
RED OAK. WE DID LINGER SOME POPS INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE COOL AND DRY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE TIME PERIOD LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 14 TO 18 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KOFK. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
ARRIVE AT KOFK BY 13Z...KLNK BY 15Z AND KOMA BY 16Z WHEN WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...THERE WILL ALSO BE
CONVECTIVE NON LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH WINDS
AT 2000 FEET FROM ABOUT 220 DEGREES UP TO 60 KNOTS.

OTHERWISE...MID CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AND GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CLOUDS COULD OCCUR AT
KOFK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE VINCINITY OF KOFK 09-12Z...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
KOMA BY 12-15Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE TAF
SITE. REGIONAL 88D RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME RETURNS MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT THIS IS JUST WHERE THE RADAR BEAM IS
INTERSECTING THE CLOUD BASE AROUND 8000-10000 FEET AND VERY
DOUBTFUL THIS IS REACHING THE SURFACE SINCE IT`S SO DRY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 622 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICE/BLACK ICE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NOON...

...ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...

OVERVIEW: PER THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP DATA...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN TN AT 06Z WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS
ENE TO THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 18Z...PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE TX/LA GULF COAST AT 06Z WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS ESE/SE INTO
THE GOMEX THIS AFT/EVE...THEN EAST TOWARD THE FL GULF COAST BY 12Z
FRI. WEAK DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE REGION TO
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST...IN A REGION OF STRONG
BAROCLINICITY BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE GULF
STREAM. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
OFFSHORE TROUGH /BAROCLINIC ZONE/ TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WEAK DPVA ATTENDANT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES: A VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IS IN PLACE INLAND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY (00Z GSO RAOB/PWAT 0.05"). UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES TOWARD THE COAST PER THE 00Z MHX RAOB AND 06Z
IR/WV SAT IMAGERY...THOUGH EVEN THERE THE LOWEST 10-15 KFT REMAIN
EXCEEDINGLY DRY. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS
WEAK DPVA ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES THE
OFFSHORE SFC TROUGH /BAROCLINIC ZONE/. THE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MOISTURE RECOVERY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION IN EASTERN NC...ESPECIALLY WITH A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE IN THE LOWEST 10-15 KFT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT ANY
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST /OBX/
OR (MORE LIKELY) ENTIRELY OFFSHORE...WHICH IS FORTUNATE GIVEN THAT
THE SURFACE WETBULB PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FZRA.

TEMPERATURES: A VARIETY OF FACTORS WILL INFLUENCE HIGHS TODAY. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO SURFACE
ADVECTION. THOUGH CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT WEST OF I-95...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (15+ KFT CEILINGS) WILL
BE PRESENT EAST OF I-95 THIS MORNING AS THE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS EXPANDS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ENE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRRUS SHOULD
SHIFT EASTWARD BY MID MORNING (~15Z) AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS RAPIDLY
ENE TO THE DELMARVA...THOUGH AN APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD RETARD THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD AND
ALLOW BKN/OVC SKIES TO PERSIST LONGER INTO THE PEAK HEATING CYCLE.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CEILINGS 2500-3500 FT AGL)
COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOC/W 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AFTER PEAK HEATING. ON
TOP OF ALL OF THE ABOVE...SNOW COVER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL CERTAINLY AFFECT HIGHS...ESP EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 IN THE
CENTRAL/NE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE ACCUMULATIONS WERE THE HIGHEST (4-
6"). WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO DECREASE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...ESP IN THE CENTRAL/NE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SNOW COVER IS
GREATER AND INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER MORE LIKELY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE COMPLICATED BY POSSIBLE BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATUS IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN SUNSET-MIDNIGHT...THOUGH CLEARING IS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS WOULD RAPIDLY FALL THEREAFTER...ESP WITH A
SNOWPACK PERSISTING IN THE CENTRAL/NE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER TEENS.

ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED 4-6" OF SNOW (CENTRAL/NE COASTAL PLAIN) AND THAT ARE
LESS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE COMPLETE MELTING. DUE TO THE ONGOING
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON...AND THAT IF AND WHERE AN ADVISORY
IS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON AN ONGOING ASSESSMENT OF
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FEEL THAT IT IS MOST PRUDENT TO
ALLOW A DECISION TO BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH ONE
LAST COLD MORNING WITH RE-FREEZING SATURDAY OF WHAT DOES NOT MELT IN
SHADY AREAS. THE WARMING DURING THE DAY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE INHIBITED BY THE EXPECTED WAA/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SURFACE AND ALOFT. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS OCCURS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

ALTHOUGH A MUCH NEEDED THAW OUT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...QUESTION
MARKS REMAIN WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

THE THEME OF THE MODELS REMAINS A FORECAST MEAN MID/UPPER PATTERN
THAT CONSISTS OF A CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION OVER HUDSON BAY ALONG
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. AN EASTERN
PACIFIC SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO PLOW INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES BY MONDAY...THEN TRACK OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUE-WED. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE PREFERRED OVER THE MAIN
OPERATIONAL MODELS PER WPC.

IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO "BACKDOOR" OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE OVER EASTERN NC
EARLY MONDAY... THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN THE FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES AS IT SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-WEST (1030+ MB). CURRENT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE
MEAN TIMING WOULD PLACE THE BOUNDARY INTO SC BY 12Z MONDAY. IF THIS
OCCURS... P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. THE DEPTH AND
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR THIS FAR OUT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS CONTINUITY AND KEEP ALL
LIQUID FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... HIGHS MAY STAY IN
THE 30S/40S MONDAY NORTH TO SOUTH.

YET ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AGAIN... P-TYPE MAY BECOME MORE
OF A CONCERN IF THE COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS PER SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS... EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE SW-
NE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS... WITH MILLER TYPE B SURFACE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC WED. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR AGAIN
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. -BADGETT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH 12-13Z AT LATEST AT THE RWI
TERMINAL BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT TO VFR. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OFFSHORE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MVFR (PERHAPS IFR) CEILINGS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AT THE
KFAY/KRWI TERMINALS...THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AND ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP WOULD
LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AT KFAY/RWI BETWEEN 00-04Z FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. -VINCENT

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR JANUARY 30TH

GSO 4 DEGREES SET IN 1966
RDU 7 DEGREES SET IN 1977
FAY 8 DEGREES SET IN 1934

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...RAH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 311 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICE/BLACK ICE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NOON...

...ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...

OVERVIEW: PER THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP DATA...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN TN AT 06Z WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS
ENE TO THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 18Z...PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE TX/LA GULF COAST AT 06Z WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS ESE/SE INTO
THE GOMEX THIS AFT/EVE...THEN EAST TOWARD THE FL GULF COAST BY 12Z
FRI. WEAK DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE REGION TO
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST...IN A REGION OF STRONG
BAROCLINICITY BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE GULF
STREAM. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
OFFSHORE TROUGH /BAROCLINIC ZONE/ TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WEAK DPVA ATTENDANT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES: A VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IS IN PLACE INLAND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY (00Z GSO RAOB/PWAT 0.05"). UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES TOWARD THE COAST PER THE 00Z MHX RAOB AND 06Z
IR/WV SAT IMAGERY...THOUGH EVEN THERE THE LOWEST 10-15 KFT REMAIN
EXCEEDINGLY DRY. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS
WEAK DPVA ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES THE
OFFSHORE SFC TROUGH /BAROCLINIC ZONE/. THE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MOISTURE RECOVERY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION IN EASTERN NC...ESPECIALLY WITH A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE IN THE LOWEST 10-15 KFT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT ANY
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST /OBX/
OR (MORE LIKELY) ENTIRELY OFFSHORE...WHICH IS FORTUNATE GIVEN THAT
THE SURFACE WETBULB PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FZRA.

TEMPERATURES: A VARIETY OF FACTORS WILL INFLUENCE HIGHS TODAY. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO SURFACE
ADVECTION. THOUGH CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT WEST OF I-95...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (15+ KFT CEILINGS) WILL
BE PRESENT EAST OF I-95 THIS MORNING AS THE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS EXPANDS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ENE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRRUS SHOULD
SHIFT EASTWARD BY MID MORNING (~15Z) AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS RAPIDLY
ENE TO THE DELMARVA...THOUGH AN APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD RETARD THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD AND
ALLOW BKN/OVC SKIES TO PERSIST LONGER INTO THE PEAK HEATING CYCLE.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CEILINGS 2500-3500 FT AGL)
COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOC/W 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AFTER PEAK HEATING. ON
TOP OF ALL OF THE ABOVE...SNOW COVER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL CERTAINLY AFFECT HIGHS...ESP EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 IN THE
CENTRAL/NE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE ACCUMULATIONS WERE THE HIGHEST (4-
6"). WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO DECREASE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...ESP IN THE CENTRAL/NE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SNOW COVER IS
GREATER AND INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER MORE LIKELY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE COMPLICATED BY POSSIBLE BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATUS IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN SUNSET-MIDNIGHT...THOUGH CLEARING IS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS WOULD RAPIDLY FALL THEREAFTER...ESP WITH A
SNOWPACK PERSISTING IN THE CENTRAL/NE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER TEENS.

ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED 4-6" OF SNOW (CENTRAL/NE COASTAL PLAIN) AND THAT ARE
UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MELTING OF THE ENTIRE SNOW PACK. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH ONE
LAST COLD MORNING WITH RE-FREEZING SATURDAY OF WHAT DOES NOT MELT IN
SHADY AREAS. THE WARMING DURING THE DAY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE INHIBITED BY THE EXPECTED WAA/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SURFACE AND ALOFT. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS OCCURS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

ALTHOUGH A MUCH NEEDED THAW OUT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...QUESTION
MARKS REMAIN WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

THE THEME OF THE MODELS REMAINS A FORECAST MEAN MID/UPPER PATTERN
THAT CONSISTS OF A CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION OVER HUDSON BAY ALONG
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. AN EASTERN
PACIFIC SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO PLOW INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES BY MONDAY...THEN TRACK OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUE-WED. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE PREFERRED OVER THE MAIN
OPERATIONAL MODELS PER WPC.

IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO "BACKDOOR" OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE OVER EASTERN NC
EARLY MONDAY... THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN THE FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES AS IT SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-WEST (1030+ MB). CURRENT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE
MEAN TIMING WOULD PLACE THE BOUNDARY INTO SC BY 12Z MONDAY. IF THIS
OCCURS... P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. THE DEPTH AND
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR THIS FAR OUT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS CONTINUITY AND KEEP ALL
LIQUID FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... HIGHS MAY STAY IN
THE 30S/40S MONDAY NORTH TO SOUTH.

YET ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN BACK TO THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AGAIN... P-TYPE MAY BECOME MORE
OF A CONCERN IF THE COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS PER SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS... EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE SW-
NE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS... WITH MILLER TYPE B SURFACE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC WED. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR AGAIN
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. -BADGETT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06-12Z THIS MORNING...
PRIMARILY AT THE KRWI TERMINAL. THE MOST RECENT OB AT KRWI (0559Z)
REPORTED A 1 3/4SM VISIBILITY WITH FOG...AND THAT WILL BE THE BASIS
FOR A TEMPO GROUP MENTIONING SUB-VFR FREEZING FOG AT KRWI THROUGH
SUNRISE. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION...
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE 925-850 MB RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MVFR (PERHAPS IFR) CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NC BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING (05Z FRI)...PRIMARILY AT THE
KFAY TERMINAL...THOUGH WITH SOME POTENTIAL AT THE KRWI/KRDU
TERMINALS AS WELL. GIVEN THAT THIS WOULD BE AT THE VERY END OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD AND THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE TO INTRODUCE ANY POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. IF ANY SUB-VFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)...
CEILINGS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. -VINCENT

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR JANUARY 30TH

GSO 4 DEGREES SET IN 1966
RDU 7 DEGREES SET IN 1977
FAY 8 DEGREES SET IN 1934

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...ELLIS/TDH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 259 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICE/BLACK ICE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NOON...

...ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...

OVERVIEW: PER THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP DATA...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN TN AT 06Z WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS
ENE TO THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 18Z...PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE TX/LA GULF COAST AT 06Z WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS ESE/SE INTO
THE GOMEX THIS AFT/EVE...THEN EAST TOWARD THE FL GULF COAST BY 12Z
FRI. WEAK DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE REGION TO
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST...IN A REGION OF STRONG
BAROCLINICITY BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE GULF
STREAM. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
OFFSHORE TROUGH /BAROCLINIC ZONE/ TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WEAK DPVA ATTENDANT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES: A VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IS IN PLACE INLAND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY (00Z GSO RAOB/PWAT 0.05"). UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES TOWARD THE COAST PER THE 00Z MHX RAOB AND 06Z
IR/WV SAT IMAGERY...THOUGH EVEN THERE THE LOWEST 10-15 KFT REMAIN
EXCEEDINGLY DRY. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS
WEAK DPVA ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES THE
OFFSHORE SFC TROUGH /BAROCLINIC ZONE/. THE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MOISTURE RECOVERY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION IN EASTERN NC...ESPECIALLY WITH A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE IN THE LOWEST 10-15 KFT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT ANY
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST /OBX/
OR (MORE LIKELY) ENTIRELY OFFSHORE...WHICH IS FORTUNATE GIVEN THAT
THE SURFACE WETBULB PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FZRA.

TEMPERATURES: A VARIETY OF FACTORS WILL INFLUENCE HIGHS TODAY. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO SURFACE
ADVECTION. THOUGH CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT WEST OF I-95...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (15+ KFT CEILINGS) WILL
BE PRESENT EAST OF I-95 THIS MORNING AS THE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS EXPANDS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ENE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRRUS SHOULD
SHIFT EASTWARD BY MID MORNING (~15Z) AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS RAPIDLY
ENE TO THE DELMARVA...THOUGH AN APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD RETARD THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD AND
ALLOW BKN/OVC SKIES TO PERSIST LONGER INTO THE PEAK HEATING CYCLE.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CEILINGS 2500-3500 FT AGL)
COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOC/W 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AFTER PEAK HEATING. ON
TOP OF ALL OF THE ABOVE...SNOW COVER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL CERTAINLY AFFECT HIGHS...ESP EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 IN THE
CENTRAL/NE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE ACCUMULATIONS WERE THE HIGHEST (4-
6"). WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO DECREASE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...ESP IN THE CENTRAL/NE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SNOW COVER IS
GREATER AND INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER MORE LIKELY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE COMPLICATED BY POSSIBLE BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATUS IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN SUNSET-MIDNIGHT...THOUGH CLEARING IS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS WOULD RAPIDLY FALL THEREAFTER...ESP WITH A
SNOWPACK PERSISTING IN THE CENTRAL/NE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER TEENS.

ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED 4-6" OF SNOW (CENTRAL/NE COASTAL PLAIN) AND THAT ARE
UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MELTING OF THE ENTIRE SNOW PACK. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT... WILL SOME WARMING ALOFT AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS.
SNOW MELT WITH UNDOUBTEDLY CUT INTO THE WARMING...SO WILL AGAIN KEEP
HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE...MID 30S AND COOLEST NORTHEAST.

THERE A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SOME ASPECTS OFT HE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM AND GFS SHOW FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...MUCH MORE SO THAN THE
ECMWF. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS LIGHT QPF. IF LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPED IT
WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN.  HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE
CONSENSUS OF SREF MEMBERS.  THE AMOUNT OF STRATUS SHOWN BY THE NAM
AND GFS EVEN SEEMS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THAT THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY.  MOST
OF THE MOISTURE RETURN IS AT 925MB WHERE THE FLOW IS WEAK AS WELL.
IF WE DO GET SOME MOISTURE RETURN BUT NOT THE DEGREE OF STRATUS IN
THE NAM/GFS...THEN THERE MAY BE FOG ENHANCED BY THE LINGER SNOWPACK
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN.  LOWS WILL BE A BE LESS
COLD AS THE OVERALL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE...MID TO UPPER
TEENS MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY...A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MODERATE AS WELL...INCREASING FROM MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT TO
MID 30S TO LOW 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS EXISTS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...
EXPECT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ALIGNING
WITH THE MEAN FLOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE
ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE FROM VA TO SC...HOWEVER THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE LOCATION AND THUS WHERE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH AS OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS WETTER THAN
THE GFS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE THE GFS IS WETTER FOR
TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...
ALBEIT WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION...FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE GFS HINTS AT A POSSIBLE CAD EVENT OVER THE NW FOR TUESDAY BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY MOVES NE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...TRAILING A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT
AND THE POTENTIAL CAD. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE...INCREASING WEDNESDAY...LOW 50S NW TO
LOW 60S SE. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06-12Z THIS MORNING...
PRIMARILY AT THE KRWI TERMINAL. THE MOST RECENT OB AT KRWI (0559Z)
REPORTED A 1 3/4SM VISIBILITY WITH FOG...AND THAT WILL BE THE BASIS
FOR A TEMPO GROUP MENTIONING SUB-VFR FREEZING FOG AT KRWI THROUGH
SUNRISE. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION...
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE 925-850 MB RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MVFR (PERHAPS IFR) CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NC BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING (05Z FRI)...PRIMARILY AT THE
KFAY TERMINAL...THOUGH WITH SOME POTENTIAL AT THE KRWI/KRDU
TERMINALS AS WELL. GIVEN THAT THIS WOULD BE AT THE VERY END OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD AND THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE TO INTRODUCE ANY POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. IF ANY SUB-VFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)...
CEILINGS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. -VINCENT

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR JANUARY 30TH

GSO 4 DEGREES SET IN 1966
RDU 7 DEGREES SET IN 1977
FAY 8 DEGREES SET IN 1934

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...ELLIS/TDH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 947 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE
LATE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN MINOT WERE 24 KNOTS AT
0254Z. NONE OF THE SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CAPTURED JUST HOW
STRONG WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS BY A FEW MPH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE REMAINING WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS HAS JUST ENTERED NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTED TO 24 KNOTS WITH LIGHT FLURRIES AND
LOWERING CEILINGS AT WILLISTON AT 0017Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...GENERATING
BRIEF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED. WIND CHILLS STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TONIGHT...SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND CONSIDERATION OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RECENT OBS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF WEAK
REFLECTIVITY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 13KM
RAP ARE INDICATING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF. WILL MENTION SCATTERED
FLURRIES TONIGHT...TRENDING FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND A
NORTHWEST WIND AT 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE NORTH. AM EXPECTING WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...NOT QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. ON SATURDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORNING LOWS AS THE COLD
POCKET SETTLES OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUCCESSIVE POCKETS OF COLD AIR/SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE COLD AIR WITH WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS LIKELY
HOISTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LOOKS MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD COVERING ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THE
COLDEST SURGE OF H85 TEMPS ARRIVE...BETWEEN -24C TO -27C. WITH THAT
SAID...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH BILLINGS AND RAPID CITY...UNDERCUT
THE ALLBLEND LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING PRECEDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF FRIGID AIR. ELSEWHERE...COLD/FRIGID AIR
DOMINATES WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS...AND CIGS LOWER
TO MVFR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
APPROXIMATELY 4-6 HOURS AFTER FROPA. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
TIMING DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 650 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS HAS JUST ENTERED NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTED TO 24 KNOTS WITH LIGHT FLURRIES AND
LOWERING CEILINGS AT WILLISTON AT 0017Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...GENERATING
BRIEF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED. WIND CHILLS STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TONIGHT...SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND CONSIDERATION OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RECENT OBS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF WEAK
REFLECTIVITY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 13KM
RAP ARE INDICATING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF. WILL MENTION SCATTERED
FLURRIES TONIGHT...TRENDING FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND A
NORTHWEST WIND AT 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE NORTH. AM EXPECTING WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...NOT QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. ON SATURDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORNING LOWS AS THE COLD
POCKET SETTLES OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUCCESSIVE POCKETS OF COLD AIR/SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE COLD AIR WITH WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS LIKELY
HOISTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LOOKS MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD COVERING ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THE
COLDEST SURGE OF H85 TEMPS ARRIVE...BETWEEN -24C TO -27C. WITH THAT
SAID...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH BILLINGS AND RAPID CITY...UNDERCUT
THE ALLBLEND LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING PRECEDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF FRIGID AIR. ELSEWHERE...COLD/FRIGID AIR
DOMINATES WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS...AND CIGS LOWER
TO MVFR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
APPROXIMATELY 4-6 HOURS AFTER FROPA. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
TIMING DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS PORTLAND OR

 229 PM PST THU JAN 30 2014

CORRECTED LONG TERM DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS ARE DOWN INTO THE HIGHER
FOOTHILL ELEVATIONS...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW FOR THE
CASCADE PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM IN THE
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN CONTINUING WELL INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND
SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PORTLAND METRO. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MOVES
SE INTO NORTHERN OREGON.

THERE WERE QUITE A FEW SUNBREAKS TODAY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SPOTS. MEANWHILE TEMPS
ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYZING A -33 DEG C
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR ASTORIA THE PAST HOUR. 12Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS COLD POOL ALOFT WELL...WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 15KFT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF
THE MORE VIGOROUS CELLS WILL REACH 20KFT. BELIEVE THIS IS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...EXPECT THEM TO
BE SHORT-LIVED PERHAPS PRODUCING ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES BEFORE
COLLAPSING. IN THE COOL AIR MASS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL. ALL IN ALL...A TYPICAL WINTER POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE PAC NW.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 2000-2500 FT RANGE AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE
INTO THE CASCADES. 12Z/18Z NAM AND 12Z UW-WRF SUGGEST ABOUT 3-6
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST TOTALS GENERALLY MT HOOD
NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IT APPEARS OROGRAPHICS
WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING...JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CASCADES FROM
GETTING ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT A SNOW ADVISORY. NONETHELESS THE
CASCADE PASSES WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVERED TONIGHT...SO CAUTION IS
ADVISED.

ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...CAUSING SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IN FACT PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY TURN MORE
STRATIFORM FRIDAY MORNING AS TODAYS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
EASTERN OREGON AND THE SECOND ONE PASSES OFFSHORE. 12Z AND 18Z NAM
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A LITTLE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY FRI MORNING...ALSO
POINTING TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT COULD PUSH SOME OF OUR FOOTHILLS
ZONES INTO SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE COOLEST PART OF THE DAY.

AFTER FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WE GRADUALLY DRY OUT...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT ENDING SAT MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...SO THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
SAT MORNING AND AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING. FOR NOW OUR HIGH TEMPS SHOW MID 40S IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS SUNDAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S
IF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FEW CHANGES. UPPER
RIDGE/QUASI-SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. THIS CAUSES MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH
WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THESE FEATURES AND THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
BEYOND MONDAY IS LOW. DESPITE THIS...MODELS DO AGREE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING OVERALL WITH INVERSION CONDITIONS
UNLIKELY. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS LOOKING TO BE 10F BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. BURGESS

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS. AS SHOWERS INCREASE LATER
TODAY AND EVENING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE. MAY EVEN SEE
A PERIOD BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z WHERE PRECIP IS MORE STEADY STATE...
MAINLY N OF A KTMK TO KSLE LINE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD ACROSS REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
INTO FRI AM. CAN NOT ELIMINATE AN ISOLATED TS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER PAC UNTIL 06Z. MTNS FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
SHOWERS INCREASE...WILL SEE CIGS LOWER BACK TO MVFR RANGE...MOSTLY
NEAR 2000 TO 2500 FT AFTER 06Z-08Z.

&&

.MARINE...W TO NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT TODAY. DECENT
GRADIENT OVER THE N COASTAL WATERS...AND COMBINED WITH SHOWERS
SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH THE GUSTS OVER THE N ORE/S WASH
COASTAL WATERS. BUT S OF CASCADE HEAD...WINDS STAY UNDER 20 KT.

SEAS RUNNING 9 TO 11 FT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAY DROP BACK TO
9 FT AT TIMES...BUT WITH NW WINDS BLOWING OVER THE NE PAC THE
FETCH AREA WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 10 FT LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER REGION FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEA SUBSIDING TO 5 OR 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR
  N COASTAL WATERS...OR CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING
  ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
  8 PM THIS EVENING...AND 4 AM TO 8 AM FRI.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 224 PM PST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS ARE DOWN INTO THE HIGHER
FOOTHILL ELEVATIONS...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW FOR THE
CASCADE PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM IN THE
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN CONTINUING WELL INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND
SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PORTLAND METRO. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MOVES
SE INTO NORTHERN OREGON.

THERE WERE QUITE A FEW SUNBREAKS TODAY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SPOTS. MEANWHILE TEMPS
ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYZING A -33 DEG C
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR ASTORIA THE PAST HOUR. 12Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS COLD POOL ALOFT WELL...WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 15KFT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF
THE MORE VIGOROUS CELLS WILL REACH 20KFT. BELIEVE THIS IS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...EXPECT THEM TO
BE SHORT-LIVED PERHAPS PRODUCING ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES BEFORE
COLLAPSING. IN THE COOL AIR MASS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL. ALL IN ALL...A TYPICAL WINTER POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE PAC NW.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 2000-2500 FT RANGE AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE
INTO THE CASCADES. 12Z/18Z NAM AND 12Z UW-WRF SUGGEST ABOUT 3-6
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST TOTALS GENERALLY MT HOOD
NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IT APPEARS OROGRAPHICS
WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING...JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CASCADES FROM
GETTING ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT A SNOW ADVISORY. NONETHELESS THE
CASCADE PASSES WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVERED TONIGHT...SO CAUTION IS
ADVISED.

ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...CAUSING SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. IN FACT PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY TURN MORE
STRATIFORM FRIDAY MORNING AS TODAYS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
EASTERN OREGON AND THE SECOND ONE PASSES OFFSHORE. 12Z AND 18Z NAM
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A LITTLE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY FRI MORNING...ALSO
POINTING TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT COULD PUSH SOME OF OUR FOOTHILLS
ZONES INTO SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE COOLEST PART OF THE DAY.

AFTER FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WE GRADUALLY DRY OUT...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT ENDING SAT MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...SO THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
SAT MORNING AND AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING. FOR NOW OUR HIGH TEMPS SHOW MID 40S IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS SUNDAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S
IF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FEW CHANGES. UPPER
RIDGE/QUASI-SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. THIS MAKES FOR MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...
HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS LOOKING TO
BE AROUND 10F BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. BURGESS

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS. AS SHOWERS INCREASE LATER
TODAY AND EVENING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE. MAY EVEN SEE
A PERIOD BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z WHERE PRECIP IS MORE STEADY STATE...
MAINLY N OF A KTMK TO KSLE LINE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD ACROSS REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
INTO FRI AM. CAN NOT ELIMINATE AN ISOLATED TS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER PAC UNTIL 06Z. MTNS FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
SHOWERS INCREASE...WILL SEE CIGS LOWER BACK TO MVFR RANGE...MOSTLY
NEAR 2000 TO 2500 FT AFTER 06Z-08Z.

&&

.MARINE...W TO NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT TODAY. DECENT
GRADIENT OVER THE N COASTAL WATERS...AND COMBINED WITH SHOWERS
SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH THE GUSTS OVER THE N ORE/S WASH
COASTAL WATERS. BUT S OF CASCADE HEAD...WINDS STAY UNDER 20 KT.

SEAS RUNNING 9 TO 11 FT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAY DROP BACK TO
9 FT AT TIMES...BUT WITH NW WINDS BLOWING OVER THE NE PAC THE
FETCH AREA WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 10 FT LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER REGION FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEA SUBSIDING TO 5 OR 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR
  N COASTAL WATERS...OR CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING
  ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
  8 PM THIS EVENING...AND 4 AM TO 8 AM FRI.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

 1011 PM MST WED JAN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MST WED JAN 29 2014

03Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW CENTER OVER WCNTRL SD WITH SNOW
FALLING FROM THE BLKHLS INTO FAR NWRN SD. K2WX HAS REPORTED
MEASURED 0.07 AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOW LITTLE FALLING ELSEWHERE ON THE
PLAINS. LOTS OF VIRGA ON RADAR AND ITS TAKING SOME TIME TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS BELOW 600MB (SEE 00Z KUNR SOUNDING). EARLY
00Z MODEL RUNS STILL SHOWING THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS ACRS THE
BLKHLS AS WELL AS FAR NWRN SD THROUGH EARLY THU MRNG...AND THOSE
WINTER WX ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL FALL ACRS NERN WY...BUT SOME ADVISORY AMOUNTS MAY FALL
NEAR THE MT BORDER. CURRENT FCST IS IN QUITE GOOD SHAPE AND WILL
ONLY MAKE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDDED FCST AT THIS TIME
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM MST WED JAN 29 2014

HIGHER RES MODELS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND THE 00Z RAP HAVE BEEN
SHOWING MORE SNOWFALL (3-6 INCHES) FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CNTRL/SRN HILLS TONIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF MYSTIC...HILL
CITY...AND CUSTER. THIS IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGHER
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES IN THE SRN HILLS. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS. NOTHING ELSE
CHANGED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST WED JAN 29 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN AB INTO
NORTHEAST MT/NORTHERN ND. WATER VAPOR SHOWED FLAT UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CWA. UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MB MAIN INTEREST
FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN UPPER TROUGH/SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
FROM THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL ON...SPINNING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/SHEAR AXIS SOUTH INTO THE CWA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG CURRENT COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN AB...MOVING
THROUGH CWA TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHWEST IA 12Z THURSDAY. SYNOPTIC
LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY DEPARTING 110KT JET STREAK/RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION...AND APPROACHING 150KT JET STREAK ACROSS THE ROCKIES. VERY
TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND COLD FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. FEATURES SHOULD SYNC UP OVER
SOUTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST SD LEADING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY
THURSDAY MORNING...LIKELY FORMING A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW SOMEWHERE
FROM FAR NORTHEAST WY INTO NORTHWEST SD. BEHIND COLD FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN...WEAK NORTHEAST UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE SD PLAINS. FLOW WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY OVER WESTERN
HALF OF CWA WITH FROUDE NUMBERS ABOVE 1 FOR 6-9 HOURS TONIGHT WITH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS. EXPECT UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOWS OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WILL HOIST APPROPRIATE HEADLINES WITH
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO QUITE CHILLY READINGS
AS COLD AIR OOZES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...BETTER SNOWS PUSH EAST OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE POKES INTO THE DAKOTAS. NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE ALREADY
IMPINGING ON THE ROCKIES WITH LOW FORMING OVER WESTERN WY. LIFT
AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE -SN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST
THIRD OF CWA LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BEST LIFT SHIFTS ACROSS EASTERN WY INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. NOTABLE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO ACCOUNT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
WHETHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST WED JAN 29 2014

ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN SD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE DAY. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW COULD
RETURN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ARCTIC AIR MAKES ANOTHER PUSH INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MST WED JAN 29 2014

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM NERN WY THROUGH THE BLKHLS INTO NWRN SD...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL SD. THESE POOR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR SDZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MST THURSDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012-013-025-028-029.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ057.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ054-056-
     071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 735 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

.UPDATE...
To lower temperatures across the Big country...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is currently located just south of Interstate 20.
Models do not seem to be handling the front very well, and
temperatures across the Northern Big Country have already fallen
to forecast lows at several locations. The HRRR seems to be
handling the front best, and is forecasting the front to remain
stalled across the Big Country, with temperatures falling into the
lower to mid 30s across Haskell and Throckmorton counties, to the
lower to mid 40s for most other locations in the Big Country. I
lowered temperatures mainly north of Interstate 20, and will
continue to monitor this evening. No other changes are needed at
this time.

Daniels

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus to bring MVFR ceilings back to West Central Texas
tonight. Models this cycle indicate the stratus return will begin a
few hours earlier than it did last night, and the coverage will be
slightly farther north. As the previous forecast indicated, I don`t
think the stratus will impact the San Angelo terminal. So, expect
VFR there and at Abilene for the next 24 hours.

Huber

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Broad troughing characterizes the western half of the CONUS this
afternoon with west/southwest flow over Texas. To our west, a
shortwave trough is moving east toward the area along the southern
end of the broad troughing in place. At the surface, a cold front
with a wide range of temperatures on either side of this feature.
The temperature as of 2 PM in Haskell was 50 degrees, while in
Abilene it was 78. The front could be seen on radar imagery
continuing to slowly creep southward. However, with the
aforementioned shortwave trough approaching the area, surface
troughing across higher terrain in New Mexico and west Texas is
expected to intensify, and push this boundary back to just north of
the area overnight, so have kept lows tonight in the lower to mid
40s for areas north of Interstate 20 tonight, and upper 40s to lower
50s for the rest of the area. In any event, the front is expected to
be nearly stationary through the next 24 hours.

For Saturday, with the front stalled in or near our northern
counties, have lowered highs for this area tomorrow. South of the
front, downsloping west winds will pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and we
will see another warm day of highs in the 70s south of a Sterling
City to Brownwood line.

20

LONG TERM...
(Sunday into Friday)

..Wintry Mix possible late Saturday night and Sunday with the Big
Country the main focus of concern....

Cold air will continued flow into the region Saturday night and
Sunday. Lift associated with an upper shortwave may bring a chance
of wintry mix, mainly after 3 AM Sunday morning and continuing
through the day Sunday. GFS model indicates a combination of sleet
and freezing rain, with possible snow mixed in north of I-20. The
main focus of the wintry mix is in the Big Country, although a
mixture of freezing and sleet possible farther south to San Angelo
and Brownwood.

The main area of concern is in Big County, particularly in northern
sections: Fisher, Haskell and Throckmorton. Both the GFS and NAM
models are focusing their highest QFPs of 1/4 inch in this area.
With a 10 to 1 snow/liquid ratio, potential exists for 2-3 inches of
snow, although significant uncertainty remains if and where it may
develop. Northern areas however are more climatologically favorable
for snow. I have put in about 1 inch of snow for Sunday from Roby to
Haskell and to Throckmorton. In addition, there could be a few
hundredths inch of freezing rain/sleet throughout the Big Country.

While snow or freezing rain amounts will likely stay below winter
storm warning criteria, their impact could still be significant due
to falling temperatures into the mid and upper 20s during the day on
Sunday. Well below freezing temperatures the 20s could cause very
icy and hazardous conditions on highways, especially bridges and
overpasses. If any ice does occur, icy conditions may persist into
Monday morning as temperatures fall into the lower 20s. Temperatures
in the Big Country may not rise above freezing until late morning
morning.

A second upper shortwave will affect the region Monday afternoon and
night. Temperatures however are expected to warmer with southeast
winds, and precipitation should fall as rain. It will be still
warmer on Tuesday as a surface low moves across North Texas,
bringing compressional warming and dry westerly winds.

An arctic front still indicated to move through Tuesday night,
keeping the region very cold into Friday. Both the GFS and EC models
indicate a long wave trough approaching from the southwest, and
there it potential for some light precipitation as mid level
moisture aloft is lifted over the cold air at the surface. There is
the potential for snow (the GFS model for Abilene indicates all snow
Thursday and Thursday night). Amounts at this time appear light on
the 12Z EC and GFS models.

04

Fire Weather...

Expect elevated fire weather conditions to continue through Saturday
afternoon, especially south of Interstate 20. With slightly cooler
temperatures expected Saturday, relative humidity values will not be
as low as today, dropping into the 20 to 25 percent range. Winds
should remain below critical thresholds, remaining in the 15 to 20
mph range. MUCH colder air will move in Saturday night into Sunday
with temperatures struggling to reach freezing along and north of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line Sunday, and mid 30s to lower 40s for
the rest of the area.

Elevated to near critical conditions will return Tuesday as west
winds pick up and relative humidity values fall to near 20 percent
for areas south of I-20. Another cold air mass will move into the
area for Wednesday through the rest of the week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  46  62  27  28  22 /   0   5  10  40  10
San Angelo  48  74  31  34  24 /   0   0  10  30  10
Junction  53  76  37  39  27 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1125 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS CIG AT ABT 3K FT ADVANCING NORTHWARD AND ALREADY MOVING
INTO SRN PORTIONS OF CWA. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS MOVG INTO
KSSF/KSAT TAFS AFT 09Z-10Z AND KAUS BY 11Z...BUT CIGS REMAINING
VFR AT KDRT AS STRATUS SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF KDRT. SRLY WNDS
INCREASING TO OVER 15 KTS BY LATE THU MRNG CAUSING MIXING CIGS TO
BECOME VFR AFTER 17Z-18Z. MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG RETURNING
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014/

UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS WAS JUST SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND MOVING NORTH THIS EVENING. EVENING NAM AND RUC RUNS
SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS APPROACHING I-35
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE DUE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL ERODE THE CLOUDS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP MOST OF THE NIGHT REACHING EXPECTED LOWS AND
THEN RISE TOWARD MORNING AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE
ALSO BOOSTED DEWPOINTS TOWARD MORNING. REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF AREA WEAKENS AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE
NORTHWEST. RESULTANT PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z THU AND CONTG
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. SOME SCT CLDS OF 4-5K THU MRNG OVR I-35
TAFS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY THU AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A GROUP OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE GULF. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 30 ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THURSDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGH AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
REGION WHILE SENDING SHORT-WAVE PULSES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL PRODUCE VERY LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY AND STALLING
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE INTERACTING WITH
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS. SINCE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER EACH
RUN...OPTED TO INCREASE POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN COUNTIES. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE RANGING FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
PLUNGE OF COLD AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              30  64  55  76  61 /   0   0   0  -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  23  62  49  75  55 /   0   0   0  -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     25  63  47  76  56 /   0   0   0  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            27  62  48  74  55 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           26  65  42  76  47 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        26  63  52  74  57 /   0   0   0  -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             24  65  44  77  53 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        26  62  48  74  56 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   29  64  55  75  59 /   0   0  10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       29  65  50  76  59 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           28  65  48  78  58 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 725 AM PST Thu Jan 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled and cool conditions will persist today with occasional
snow showers mostly with minor accumulations. A drying and
clearing trend will begin Friday. No major storm systems are
expected for the next seven days...but a cooling trend is likely
by early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to forecast made for today to better account for the
snowfall generated in elongated narrow bands dropping down in a
slow north to south manner over Eastern Washington and Northern
Idaho per recent radar and satellite imagery. Using the trend in
the recent 12Z HRRR but only up to 20Z today cause it seems want
to decrease the shower activity somewhat at that point in time
which I don`t really agree with at the moment. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A broad area of low pressure will remain over the
forecast area through 12Z Friday. The boundary layer is moist
under a nocturnal inversion and this will produce IFR conditions
at least temporarily this morning at most TAF sites. A cold front
will descend from the north and trigger SCT -SHSN during the
afternoon and evening over the KGEG area TAF sites and overnight
at the KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. The KMWH and KEAT TAF sites will
mostly escape these snow showers...and should break out to VFR
conditions during the afternoon. Drier air overnight tonight in
the wake of the cold front will limit fog Friday morning but
stratus layers may re-occur late tonight. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        31  20  30  18  28  17 /  60  40  10   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  33  20  33  17  31  16 /  60  40  10  10  10  10
Pullman        35  26  34  24  33  21 /  50  50  40  10  10  10
Lewiston       39  30  39  27  38  23 /  50  50  30  10  10  10
Colville       32  20  32  13  30  10 /  70  20  10   0  10  10
Sandpoint      33  18  32  15  31  13 /  70  20  10   0  10  10
Kellogg        31  21  31  18  29  15 /  70  60  40  10  20  10
Moses Lake     35  25  35  21  34  20 /  20  40  10   0  10   0
Wenatchee      34  25  35  23  35  20 /  20  50  10   0   0  10
Omak           34  22  32  13  30  16 /  50  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Lewis
     and Southern Nez Perce Counties.

WA...None.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 547 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.  ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. THE BACK EDGE OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS DIGGING OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
IS PRODUCING LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO.  AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
AND INTERACTS WITH THESE SHORTWAVES...PRECIP AND SNOW
CHANCES/IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE STATE AT
THE START OF THE EVENING...WITH ONLY SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
DURING THE EVENING WHICH WILL SET UP A PERIOD OF GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY OVERNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS A RESULT.  HAVE DROPPED LOWS ACROSS N-C
WISCONSIN WHERE HAVE CONCERNS DIDNT GO COLD ENOUGH.  MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.  SNOW WILL BE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THINK PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
12Z...BUT WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE IN CASE TIMING IS TOO SLOW.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE LATE WITH THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS
DETROIT.  STRONG FGEN BAND ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL LEAD TO A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SE WISCONSIN AND
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT MODELS POINT TOWARDS ENOUGH SATURATION ALONG
WITH QG FORCING FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  PRECIP SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MODEL QPF ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT AND USED A GENERAL BLEND AS IN INPUT INTO THE FORECAST.
WITH SNOW RATIOS OF 16 OR 17 TO 1...LOOKING AT ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SOUTH OF A MARSHFIELD TO MARINETTE LINE...HIGHEST OVER
MANITOWOC COUNTY.  MAIN PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 9AM
AND 3PM...BEFORE PRECIP PULLS OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  UNLIKE THE
PAST FEW STORMS...WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO A MINIMUM.  WITHOUT THE WIND RELATED
IMPACTS...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT.  HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC
AIR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. MAIN SNOW CHANCES
FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH SYSTEM
BASED ON 850MB THERMAL PROFILE WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY CONCERN WILL
BE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO
FILTER SOUTHWARD AND HALT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE SNOW.
HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON FINAL STORM TRACK AND
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WERE TO LOWER
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST NIGHTS AND TAILOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO DEPICT OUR USUAL WARM SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD FLYING WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
LOOKING AT 1-3 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA BY THE TIME THE SNOW
ENDS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR NEAR
MANITOWOC AND POINTS SOUTH. VSBYS TO FALL TO IFR LEVELS ONCE THE
SNOW ARRIVES. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TE








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1054 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014

.UPDATE...A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW UPSTREAM IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AS FAR DOWN
AS A 3/4 TO A 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A BAND MOVED THROUGH A BIT AHEAD OF
THIS SWATH HOWEVER...DRY AIR HAS LIMITED HOW MUCH PRECIP COULD MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE. SFC OBS AND VIEW FROM OUR WINDOW SUPPORT ONLY
VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...IF ANYTHING FROM THE RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT BAND. MSAS ANALYZES SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MAIN CONCERNS ARE
POPS/WX AND WINDS TODAY...OF WHICH BOTH ARE ON TRACK AND MATCH WELL
WITH LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES. DRY AIR IMPEDING PRECIP EARLIER IS
SLOWING BECOMING SATURATED AND WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED SWATH
OF SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE CWA SHORTLY. BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW. 1000-850
MEAN LAYER WINDS APPROACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KTS LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DONT HAVE AS STRONG OF
WINDS IN THE MEAN MIXED LAYER. REGARDLESS...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW
STRONG SUPPORT FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND FOR THESE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS...VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY GO DOWN TO AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE...WITH AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW MAY
KEEP VISIBILITIES BELOW 6 MILES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO EASE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
LATE EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA AND CIGS IMPROVE.
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MORE
SNOW THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

IT WILL DEFINITELY BE WINDY AND THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. BASED ON TRACKING OF THE MOVEMENT
OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY SNOW ON AREA RADARS TO THE WEST...HAVE KEPT
CURRENT TIMING OF SNOW INTO THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 14Z-15Z...
REACHING BERLIN...MADISON AND MONROE AROUND 16Z...PLYMOUTH...
WAUKESHA AND LAKE GENEVA AROUND 17Z...AND MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA BY
18Z.

SOME CONCERN WITH LATEST HRRR AND RAP THAT KEEP THE SNOW FROM
MADISON AND WEST THROUGH 18Z...SO WILL MONITOR OBS/RADAR AND ADJUST
IF NECESSARY. LEADING AREA OF RETURNS WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER SRN MN AND N CENTRAL IOWA...BUT NO GROUND TRUTH WITH 9-10K FT
CEILINGS REFLECTING DRY LAYER BELOW 10K FT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THAT WILL HAVE TO SATURATE BEFORE SNOW REACHES GROUND.

HAVE DROPPED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT AS NOT QUITE AS MUCH QPF USING
CONSENSUS MODEL AMOUNTS...WHICH WERE HIGHER THAN WPC...WHICH KEEPS
SNOW TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH
WITH BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED 3 INCH TOTAL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE MAINLY AHEAD OF...AND AT THE ONSET OF THE
SNOW WITH 45-50KT WINDS AT 900-925 MB AHEAD OF LOW. SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH CURRENT OBS REMAINING AT 10SM WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...THINK
DRIFTING ON EAST-WEST ROADS IN OPEN AREAS WILL BE THE BIGGER
PROBLEM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT REACH THESE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING UP TO AROUND 1K FT. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHEST
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...AND GUSTS GENERALLY 30-35
MPH WITH A FEW 40 MPH.

NO HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT EITHER AN
ADVISORY FOR SNOW OR WINDS ALONE...THOUGH A CASE COULD BE MADE FOR A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW/WIND COMBINATION. GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS AND NOT DURING EITHER THE MORNING OR EVENING RUSH HOURS...AND
WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AS SNOW MOVES IN...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE TRICKY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT SPS ISSUANCES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SNOW EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BEHIND COLD FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO BY 12Z FRIDAY...SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AND ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN
THE NORTHWEST HALF. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BETWEEN -5
AND -15.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TRY TO NUDGE LIGHT QPF
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS JUST
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND NAM FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MID LEVELS ARE MOIST...BUT LOW LEVELS ARE DRY. KEPT LOW POPS IN
THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THOUGH THIS COULD END UP BEING A DRY PERIOD.
COOL HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM MODELS THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING SURFACE
LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHERN
OHIO AREA SATURDAY. MODELS BRING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...ALONG WITH DECENT Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE IN THE MID LEVELS. CANADIAN
IS TOO AGGRESSIVE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH QPF...AND FAVORED A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.

MODELS ALL BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION IN DEEP LAYER WITH DENDRITE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEING TAPPED. BROUGHT IN HIGH POPS INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. KEPT SIMILAR POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES NORTHWEST TO 3 TO 4 INCHES SOUTHEAST ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

MAY SEE MORE SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST IF MODELS TREND MORE TO THE
NORTH...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGS DRIER AIR AND QUIET WEATHER INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS COLDER TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

MODELS THEN BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
BRINGS A SWATH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. THESE FEATURES REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF QPF THIS FAR OUT.

FOR NOW...KEPT CONSENSUS BLEND OF POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED LATER ON IF BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT IS REACHED ON THIS SYSTEM. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE. COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER AS WELL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO CONTINUE WITH NEAR 40KT SPEED
DIFFERENTIAL FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 12K TO 14K FEET UNTIL AROUND
15Z AT KMSN...AND BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z AT EASTERN TAF SITES. THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE CURRENT LIGHT
SNOW COVER OVER RUNWAYS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL EASE A BIT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING KMSN BETWEEN
16Z AND 17Z...KUES BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z...AND KMKE AND KENW IN THE
18Z TO 19Z TIME FRAME. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DIP TO MVFR LEVELS WITH
THE ONSET OF THE SNOW...DROPPING WITHIN AN HOUR OT TWO TO IFR WITH
OCCASIONAL LIFR VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN BACK UP TO MVFR CIGS
AND VFR VSBYS AS THE SNOW ENDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER
OUT MID-EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM POLAR ORBITER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWED WEST WINDS HAD SHIFTED BROKEN ICE SHIELD OUT AT LEAST 10
MILES FROM SHORE. STILL NOT MUCH OPEN WATER TO BUILD WAVES...BUT
HEIGHTS CERTAINLY NOT ZERO. BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BORDERLINE GALE...BUT WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL OPEN WATER FOR
MIXING UP TO STRONGER WINDS...WILL KEEP CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GOING AND MENTION A FEW GALE GUSTS...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FROM
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE AS SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THEN FREQUENT WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25
KTS FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND FRONT. CURRENT END
TIME LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 524 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014

UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION AND MARINE SEGMENTS.

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

IT WILL DEFINITELY BE WINDY AND THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. BASED ON TRACKING OF THE MOVEMENT
OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY SNOW ON AREA RADARS TO THE WEST...HAVE KEPT
CURRENT TIMING OF SNOW INTO THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 14Z-15Z...
REACHING BERLIN...MADISON AND MONROE AROUND 16Z...PLYMOUTH...
WAUKESHA AND LAKE GENEVA AROUND 17Z...AND MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA BY
18Z.

SOME CONCERN WITH LATEST HRRR AND RAP THAT KEEP THE SNOW FROM
MADISON AND WEST THROUGH 18Z...SO WILL MONITOR OBS/RADAR AND ADJUST
IF NECESSARY. LEADING AREA OF RETURNS WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER SRN MN AND N CENTRAL IOWA...BUT NO GROUND TRUTH WITH 9-10K FT
CEILINGS REFLECTING DRY LAYER BELOW 10K FT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THAT WILL HAVE TO SATURATE BEFORE SNOW REACHES GROUND.

HAVE DROPPED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT AS NOT QUITE AS MUCH QPF USING
CONSENSUS MODEL AMOUNTS...WHICH WERE HIGHER THAN WPC...WHICH KEEPS
SNOW TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH
WITH BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED 3 INCH TOTAL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE MAINLY AHEAD OF...AND AT THE ONSET OF THE
SNOW WITH 45-50KT WINDS AT 900-925 MB AHEAD OF LOW. SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH CURRENT OBS REMAINING AT 10SM WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...THINK
DRIFTING ON EAST-WEST ROADS IN OPEN AREAS WILL BE THE BIGGER
PROBLEM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT REACH THESE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING UP TO AROUND 1K FT. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHEST
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...AND GUSTS GENERALLY 30-35
MPH WITH A FEW 40 MPH.

NO HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT EITHER AN
ADVISORY FOR SNOW OR WINDS ALONE...THOUGH A CASE COULD BE MADE FOR A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW/WIND COMBINATION. GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS AND NOT DURING EITHER THE MORNING OR EVENING RUSH HOURS...AND
WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AS SNOW MOVES IN...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE TRICKY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT SPS ISSUANCES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SNOW EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BEHIND COLD FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO BY 12Z FRIDAY...SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AND ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN
THE NORTHWEST HALF. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BETWEEN -5
AND -15.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TRY TO NUDGE LIGHT QPF
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS JUST
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND NAM FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MID LEVELS ARE MOIST...BUT LOW LEVELS ARE DRY. KEPT LOW POPS IN
THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THOUGH THIS COULD END UP BEING A DRY PERIOD.
COOL HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM MODELS THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING SURFACE
LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHERN
OHIO AREA SATURDAY. MODELS BRING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...ALONG WITH DECENT Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE IN THE MID LEVELS. CANADIAN
IS TOO AGGRESSIVE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH QPF...AND FAVORED A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.

MODELS ALL BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION IN DEEP LAYER WITH DENDRITE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEING TAPPED. BROUGHT IN HIGH POPS INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. KEPT SIMILAR POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES NORTHWEST TO 3 TO 4 INCHES SOUTHEAST ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

MAY SEE MORE SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST IF MODELS TREND MORE TO THE
NORTH...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGS DRIER AIR AND QUIET WEATHER INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS COLDER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

MODELS THEN BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
BRINGS A SWATH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. THESE FEATURES REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF QPF THIS FAR OUT.

FOR NOW...KEPT CONSENSUS BLEND OF POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED LATER ON IF BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT IS REACHED ON THIS SYSTEM. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE. COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER AS WELL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO CONTINUE WITH NEAR 40KT SPEED
DIFFERENTIAL FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 12K TO 14K FEET UNTIL AROUND
15Z AT KMSN...AND BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z AT EASTERN TAF SITES. THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE CURRENT LIGHT
SNOW COVER OVER RUNWAYS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL EASE A BIT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING KMSN BETWEEN
16Z AND 17Z...KUES BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z...AND KMKE AND KENW IN THE
18Z TO 19Z TIME FRAME. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DIP TO MVFR LEVELS WITH
THE ONSET OF THE SNOW...DROPPING WITHIN AN HOUR OT TWO TO IFR WITH
OCCASIONAL LIFR VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN BACK UP TO MVFR CIGS
AND VFR VSBYS AS THE SNOW ENDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER
OUT MID-EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM POLAR ORBITER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWED WEST WINDS HAD SHIFTED BROKEN ICE SHIELD OUT AT LEAST 10
MILES FROM SHORE. STILL NOT MUCH OPEN WATER TO BUILD WAVES...BUT
HEIGHTS CERTAINLY NOT ZERO. BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BORDERLINE GALE...BUT WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL OPEN WATER FOR
MIXING UP TO STRONGER WINDS...WILL KEEP CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GOING AND MENTION A FEW GALE GUSTS...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FROM
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE AS SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THEN FREQUENT WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25
KTS FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND FRONT. CURRENT END
TIME LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 348 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014

...UPDATED TO ADD TODAY/TONIGHT SECTIONS...

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

IT WILL DEFINITELY BE WINDY AND THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. BASED ON TRACKING OF THE MOVEMENT
OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY SNOW ON AREA RADARS TO THE WEST...HAVE KEPT
CURRENT TIMING OF SNOW INTO THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 14Z-15Z...
REACHING BERLIN...MADISON AND MONROE AROUND 16Z...PLYMOUTH...
WAUKESHA AND LAKE GENEVA AROUND 17Z...AND MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA BY
18Z.

SOME CONCERN WITH LATEST HRRR AND RAP THAT KEEP THE SNOW FROM
MADISON AND WEST THROUGH 18Z...SO WILL MONITOR OBS/RADAR AND ADJUST
IF NECESSARY. LEADING AREA OF RETURNS WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER SRN MN AND N CENTRAL IOWA...BUT NO GROUND TRUTH WITH 9-10K FT
CEILINGS REFLECTING DRY LAYER BELOW 10K FT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THAT WILL HAVE TO SATURATE BEFORE SNOW REACHES GROUND.

HAVE DROPPED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT AS NOT QUITE AS MUCH QPF USING
CONSENSUS MODEL AMOUNTS...WHICH WERE HIGHER THAN WPC...WHICH KEEPS
SNOW TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH
WITH BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED 3 INCH TOTAL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE MAINLY AHEAD OF...AND AT THE ONSET OF THE
SNOW WITH 45-50KT WINDS AT 900-925 MB AHEAD OF LOW. SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH CURRENT OBS REMAINING AT 10SM WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...THINK
DRIFTING ON EAST-WEST ROADS IN OPEN AREAS WILL BE THE BIGGER
PROBLEM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT REACH THESE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING UP TO AROUND 1K FT. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHEST
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...AND GUSTS GENERALLY 30-35
MPH WITH A FEW 40 MPH.

NO HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT EITHER AN
ADVISORY FOR SNOW OR WINDS ALONE...THOUGH A CASE COULD BE MADE FOR A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW/WIND COMBINATION. GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS AND NOT DURING EITHER THE MORNING OR EVENING RUSH HOURS...AND
WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AS SNOW MOVES IN...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE TRICKY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT SPS ISSUANCES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SNOW EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BEHIND COLD FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO BY 12Z FRIDAY...SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AND ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN
THE NORTHWEST HALF. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BETWEEN -5
AND -15.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TRY TO NUDGE LIGHT QPF
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS JUST
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND NAM FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MID LEVELS ARE MOIST...BUT LOW LEVELS ARE DRY. KEPT LOW POPS IN
THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THOUGH THIS COULD END UP BEING A DRY PERIOD.
COOL HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM MODELS THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING SURFACE
LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHERN
OHIO AREA SATURDAY. MODELS BRING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...ALONG WITH DECENT Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE IN THE MID LEVELS. CANADIAN
IS TOO AGGRESSIVE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH QPF...AND FAVORED A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.

MODELS ALL BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION IN DEEP LAYER WITH DENDRITE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEING TAPPED. BROUGHT IN HIGH POPS INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. KEPT SIMILAR POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES NORTHWEST TO 3 TO 4 INCHES SOUTHEAST ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

MAY SEE MORE SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST IF MODELS TREND MORE TO THE
NORTH...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGS DRIER AIR AND QUIET WEATHER INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS COLDER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

MODELS THEN BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
BRINGS A SWATH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. THESE FEATURES REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF QPF THIS FAR OUT.

FOR NOW...KEPT CONSENSUS BLEND OF POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED LATER ON IF BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT IS REACHED ON THIS SYSTEM. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE. COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON...

&&

.MARINE...COMING SOON...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1128 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

29.21Z...22Z AND 23Z RAP CYCLES HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE 29.18Z
NAM/GFS CLOSELY...SUGGESTING MORE QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE RAISED QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. THE NEW UPDATES GET SNOWFALL TOTALS
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE HELD OFF ON A WARNING AT THIS
TIME WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE OVER TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES...BUT CLOSE MONITORING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NEEDED.

REGARDING THE METEOROLOGICAL REASONING FOR THE HIGHER QPF AND
SHIFT NORTH...THE 500MB SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER CENTRAL
MN IS NOW PROGGED TO TAKE A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK AND BE
STRONGER.

CONSIDERED ALSO SEGMENTING THE ADVISORY TO DELAY THE START TIME
FOR MOST WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIME SPLIT WOULD
HAVE ONLY BEEN FOR 2 HOURS...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY TIMES
ALONE. DID SEGMENT THE WSW IN AN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL INTO WISCONSIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

HAVE INCLUDED TAYLOR COUNTY INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
29.18Z NAM/GFS AND 29.12Z ECMWF ALL HAVE SHOWN A NORTHWARD SHIFT
TO THE SNOWFALL TRACK...WITH THE 29.18Z NAM EVEN SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL OF GETTING CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA IN SOME SPOTS. WITH
THE NORTHWARD SHIFT...FELT A NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BY
INCLUDING TAYLOR COUNTY.

ANOTHER ISSUE NOT ADDRESSED RIGHT NOW IN THE HAZARD OR CURRENT
FORECAST IS THE 29.18Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING
OF THE PRECIPITATION. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SNOW MAY START IN THE LSE
AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE...I.E. 8-9 AM. WILL BE
EVALUATING THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF SOME OF THE
ADVISORY START TIMES NEED TO BE DELAYED.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...THE SNOW FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS CURRENTLY
IN CENTRAL MONTANA. VISIBILITIES THERE RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 SM.

ONE LAST ITEM...THE 29.18Z NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE MORE WOUND-UP
LOW COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. IF THIS COMES TRUE...THERE COULD BE A
BIT MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND IMPACT ON MORNING COMMUTE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP/GFS 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TOWARD A STRONGER WAVE CRASHING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES VIA 150-170KT JET OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WAVE IS SET TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WEATHER WILL BEGIN QUIET INITIALLY WITH JUST SOME INCREASE IN
HIGH/MID CLOUD OVERNIGHT  AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST AND STALLS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL WI/SOUTHERN MN. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS. THEN...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A FAIRLY STRONG 700-300MB PV-ANOMALY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY IN
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED
MAINLY IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NAM ALSO INDICATES STRONG OMEGA IN THE
-12 TO -18C LAYER FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH POTENTIAL...BUT BUFKIT IS
ONLY SHOWING SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS MAINLY IN THE 12-15:1 RANGE. THIS
IS PROBABLY DUE TO A SMALLER DGZ LESS THAN 100MB AND GOOD AMOUNT OF
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS LAYER. NONETHELESS...LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC MOTION WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF
140-150KT JET/FRONTOGENESIS/PV-ANOMALY WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY BROAD
AREA OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS LOOKS TO
BE CENTERED ALONG THE I-90/94 CORRIDOR REGION IN THE NWS LA CROSSE
FORECAST AREA INTO EAST CENTRAL WI. THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME
FRAME...OR RIGHT IN THE HEART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE WHEN
VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO 1/2SM AT TIMES. APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE OVER WITH BY MID-AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES FOR AWHILE WITH 15-25
MPH WINDS PUSHING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ANTICIPATED 2-
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL VALID FROM 4 AM THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

FRIGID WIND CHILLS THEN BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20-30 BELOW
RANGE. WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO HOIST ANOTHER ADVISORY TO COVER THIS.
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS DONE TO
AVOID ANY HEADLINE CONFUSION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOCUSED ON THE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOWING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ORIGINATING OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IL. THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST
NORTH WITH A SHIELD OF SNOW NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...PUSHING IT AL
THE WAY INTO THE LA CROSSE FORECAST AREA WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEPING
IT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS POP OF 20-40
PERCENT PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE TRACK AND ADJUST POPS AS NECESSARY. EVEN IF THE ECMWF IS
RIGHT...ONLY LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKING QUIET AND CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CONUS. TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGH THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TENS ABOVE ZERO...WARMING SLIGHTLY
INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON MONDAY.

SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THIS NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLY
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE TIMING IN GENERAL APPEARS TO
AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY LATER. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TAFS TOWARDS A LATER
ARRIVAL...13Z AT RST AND 14Z AT LSE. THERE IS POTENTIAL IT COULD
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR AT LSE. AS THE SNOW MOVES IN...EXPECT THE VFR
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN IN PLACE TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR AS
VISIBILITIES FALL. CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART LOOK TO STAY MVFR.
THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH IN A FEW HOURS...BUT DUMP UPWARDS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES. BY 19Z...EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO BE REDUCED TO
FLURRIES WITH AN MVFR CEILING HOLDING IN PLACE. BLOWING SNOW MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT RST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH TAF
SITES SHOULD GO VFR BY 00Z AS DRIER ARCTIC AIR SCOURS OUT THE
CLOUDS.

WINDS REMAIN A PROBLEM. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE HAS
KEPT RST BREEZY ALL EVENING...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
BOTH SITES. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SOME EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...BUT STILL ENOUGH WIND REMAINS ABOVE THE GROUND
TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THAT WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO END
AROUND 12Z. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND GUST TOWARDS 20-25 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     IAZ008-009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 333 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

TODAY:
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING INTO
MISSOURI NOT LONG AFTER THIS ISSUANCE...AND ON THE WHOLE THAT LOOKS
TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT IS OCCURRING.  A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION
IS BEING OBSERVED AS OF THIS ISSUANCE...AND EXPECT THAT TO PERSIST.
ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIX.  THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR DEVELOP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT THIS IS THE ONLY
GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST THIS.  THUS...HAVE TAPERED POPS TO END ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING.  EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST AND TEMPERATURES TO
BE LIMITED IN UPWARD EXPANSE...HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S
EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

TONIGHT:
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL MAKE MINIMUMS
A BIT TRICKY. WILL SHADE LOWER IN THE NORTH WHERE FRESH SNOW AND
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. IF IT CLEAR AND SMOOTH EARLY...MAY NOT BE
COOL ENOUGH.

SUN-MON:
FAST MOVING SYSTEM ACROSS OK HAS TRENDED SOUTH FROM 24HRS
AGO...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG OK BORDER CONTINUE TO DECR.
HOWEVER STILL EXPECT MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM SHORTWAVE
DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SUN NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN HALF...SO EARLY LOW IS
POSSIBLE. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN EARNEST DURING THE DAY BUT
INFLUX OF CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER WARMUP. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

MODELS OVERALL STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN CHANGE
AND RESULTANT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START WITH FIRST SYSTEM ON MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TUE.
ACCUMULATING/ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW LOOKS PROBABLE AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING AS 1040+MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...OTHERWISE WOULD BE ADAMENT ABOUT DROPPING TEMPERATURES
EVEN MORE FROM THU MORNING-FRI MORNING. SOME TIME ON FRI...MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS...RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH MASSIVE/IMPRESSIVE 850MB RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO
BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THIS EVENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL
SNOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

ALL AREAS TO BE IFR THRU SAT MORNING (12Z-15Z) WITH A WIDESPREAD
WINTRY MIX FREQUENTLY REDUCING VSBYS TO 1-2SM. IN CNTRL KS VSBYS
WOULD BE THE MORE DOMINANT PLAYER IN KSLN & KRSL BEING PLACED IN
IFR STATUS. AS A NE-SW ORIENTED MID-LVL TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH E
TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER SAT AFTERNOON...THE WEAK SFC LOW & COLD
FRONT WILL GET FORCED SE TO BRING WINTRY MIX TO A QUICK END OVER
MOST AREAS BY 12Z...BY WHICH TIME CIGS IN MOST AREAS WILL HAVE
CLEARED THE 1,000FT HURDLE WITH 1,200-1,500FT DECKS PREVALENT FROM
15Z ONWARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    32  12  30  11 /  20  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      32  10  30  11 /  20  10  10   0
NEWTON          31   9  29  10 /  20  10  10   0
ELDORADO        31  11  29   9 /  20  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  14  30  12 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         29   3  29  10 /  10   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      31   5  30  11 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          30   4  30   8 /  20   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       31   8  30  10 /  20   0  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  17  30  15 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         30  14  28   8 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            30  13  27   7 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  14  29  11 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 1059 PM MST FRI JAN 31 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED AGAIN TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY IN THE
ADVISORY AS WELL...IN PARTICULAR THE WESTERN PORTION FROM PRYOR TO
FORT SMITH AS UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOWFALL IS MODERATE TO HEAVY IN
THESE AREAS BASED ON RECENT BLX RADAR IMAGERY. SNOW CONTINUES
OTHERWISE ACROSS OUR WEST AND WILL MAKE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT HEAVIER SNOWFALL
IS GETTING INTO THE RED LODGE AREA NOW AND MOIST UPSLOPE PCPN
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TIL CLOSE TO 17Z PER
THE LATEST RAP. JKL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 916 PM...
UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER TO INCLUDE BILLINGS IN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. RUC MODEL WAS CONSISTENTLY GENERATING .20 PRECIP
LIQUID AMOUNTS WHICH WITH CONSERVATIVE 15 TO 1 SNOW RATIOS WAS
GOING TO YIELD 3 INCHES AND SNOW RATIOS COULD BE HIGHER FOR THE
BILLINGS AREA. ELSEWHERE WEB CAMS AT BIG TIMBER AND RED LODGE SHOW
SNOW IS ACCUMULATING STEADILY SO THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS LOOK
GOOD. NO FURTHER UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

PRESSURE RISES WERE NOSING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
RADAR WAS STARTING TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS N MT WHILE
SPOTTY ECHOES WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A N-S
ORIENTED JET WILL WEAKEN AS IT DIVES S INTO THE REGION AND PUSHES
A SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH IT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT BOTH SHOWED A SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH THE FRONT AND STRONG INSTABILITY
OVER AREAS W AND S OF KBIL. IN ADDITION...FAIRLY STRONG
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROVIDE DECENT FORCING W AND SW OF
KBIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF AMOUNTS WHICH WERE RATHER LOW...BUT
THE GFS HAD HIGHER BULLSEYES OF /.15/ INCHES OVER KLVM AND THE
FOOTHILLS. THE ADVISORIES W OF KBIL AND WARNINGS IN THE FOOTHILLS
WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...ALTHOUGH HAVE RAISED THE SNOW AMOUNTS WITH
BUFKIT SHOWING POSSIBLE SNOW RATIOS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 1. FORCING
DID NOT LOOK VERY COORDINATED FOR KBIL AND BIG HORN COUNTIES SO
LEFT THEM OUT OF THE ADVISORIES. KSHR HAD GOOD INSTABILITY AND WAS
ON THE EDGE OF THE FRONTOGENESIS...HOWEVER THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE NNW WHICH WAS DOWNSLOPE FOR THIS AREA...SO WILL KEEP THEM OUT
OF AN ADVISORY. ALSO LEFT THE NE BIG HORNS JUST UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS THEY HAD JUST A SHORT PERIOD OF LIFT AND LIMITED QPF.

FRONTOGENESIS BAND MOVES QUICKLY S OF THE AREA SAT MORNING AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GOING
POPS...WHICH HAD THE SNOW TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY...WERE IN
GOOD SHAPE.

A NW FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. MOISTURE
FIELDS SUPPORTED THE LOW MOUNTAIN POPS IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT
AND SUN. RAISED POPS OVER THE NW ZONES SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THE NEXT FRONT INTO THE AREA. MODELS ALL HAD QPF DEVELOPING
IN THE NW BY 12Z MON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL VALUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS COLD AND UNSETTLED. SEVERAL
CHANGES WERE MADE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY TO TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD...BUT ALSO TO RAISE POPS FOR ARCTIC SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS PROGGED INTO THE REGION TO START
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN EXTENDED SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARCTIC PUSH. RAISES POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIKELY POPS AROUND RED LODGE...AND
EXTENDED SLIGHT POTENTIAL EASTWARD. KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME...BUT POTENTIAL IN FOOTHILLS COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW...RESPECTABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...DEEP MOISTURE
LAYER...AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS COMBINE AHEAD OF COLDEST AIR TO
BRING IMPROVED POTENTIAL TO THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS INCLUDING RED
LODGE...SO TOTALS COULD CLIMB QUICKLY FOR THIS PERIOD. OVERALL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
850MB TEMPS BELOW -20C FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS BELOW ZERO EXPECT FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER
THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE...AS AM NOT SEEING
ANYTHING TO DRIVE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AT THIS TIME. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

A QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM KBIL WEST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ROUTES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
IN THE SNOW. KLVM WILL SEE CONDITIONS DROP BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS
AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE CONDITIONS AT KBIL
MAY APPROACH AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. AREAS OF MVFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
ROUTES OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KMLS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH VFR BY MID DAY ALL AREAS. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 007/018 007/023 006/013 903/000 910/902 910/007 902/012
    +3/S    00/B    14/S    43/S    21/I    10/B    11/B
LVM 001/018 004/025 002/014 908/903 916/905 911/007 904/015
    +3/S    01/B    14/S    43/S    22/J    11/B    22/S
HDN 008/017 003/022 006/014 903/001 908/902 910/008 902/013
    82/S    10/B    03/S    33/S    21/I    10/B    11/B
MLS 001/013 000/020 000/011 907/901 913/901 911/009 904/010
    10/B    00/B    02/S    22/S    11/I    10/U    11/B
4BQ 004/014 000/021 004/014 904/002 911/901 910/009 901/015
    21/B    10/U    02/S    23/S    21/I    10/B    11/B
BHK 000/007 904/019 903/007 910/902 915/903 913/006 906/010
    10/B    00/B    01/E    12/S    11/I    11/B    12/S
SHR 007/014 901/022 901/014 905/001 911/903 913/008 906/014
    84/S    10/U    03/S    43/S    32/J    10/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35-38>41-64-65.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 56-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 916 PM MST FRI JAN 31 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER TO INCLUDE BILLINGS IN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. RUC MODEL WAS CONSISTENTLY GENERATING .20 PRECIP
LIQUID AMOUNTS WHICH WITH CONSERVATIVE 15 TO 1 SNOW RATIOS WAS
GOING TO YIELD 3 INCHES AND SNOW RATIOS COULD BE HIGHER FOR THE
BILLINGS AREA. ELSEWHERE WEB CAMS AT BIG TIMBER AND RED LODGE SHOW
SNOW IS ACCUMULATING STEADILY SO THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS LOOK
GOOD. NO FURTHER UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

PRESSURE RISES WERE NOSING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
RADAR WAS STARTING TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS N MT WHILE
SPOTTY ECHOES WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A N-S
ORIENTED JET WILL WEAKEN AS IT DIVES S INTO THE REGION AND PUSHES
A SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH IT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT BOTH SHOWED A SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH THE FRONT AND STRONG INSTABILITY
OVER AREAS W AND S OF KBIL. IN ADDITION...FAIRLY STRONG
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROVIDE DECENT FORCING W AND SW OF
KBIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF AMOUNTS WHICH WERE RATHER LOW...BUT
THE GFS HAD HIGHER BULLSEYES OF /.15/ INCHES OVER KLVM AND THE
FOOTHILLS. THE ADVISORIES W OF KBIL AND WARNINGS IN THE FOOTHILLS
WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...ALTHOUGH HAVE RAISED THE SNOW AMOUNTS WITH
BUFKIT SHOWING POSSIBLE SNOW RATIOS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 1. FORCING
DID NOT LOOK VERY COORDINATED FOR KBIL AND BIG HORN COUNTIES SO
LEFT THEM OUT OF THE ADVISORIES. KSHR HAD GOOD INSTABILITY AND WAS
ON THE EDGE OF THE FRONTOGENESIS...HOWEVER THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE NNW WHICH WAS DOWNSLOPE FOR THIS AREA...SO WILL KEEP THEM OUT
OF AN ADVISORY. ALSO LEFT THE NE BIG HORNS JUST UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS THEY HAD JUST A SHORT PERIOD OF LIFT AND LIMITED QPF.

FRONTOGENESIS BAND MOVES QUICKLY S OF THE AREA SAT MORNING AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GOING
POPS...WHICH HAD THE SNOW TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY...WERE IN
GOOD SHAPE.

A NW FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. MOISTURE
FIELDS SUPPORTED THE LOW MOUNTAIN POPS IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT
AND SUN. RAISED POPS OVER THE NW ZONES SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THE NEXT FRONT INTO THE AREA. MODELS ALL HAD QPF DEVELOPING
IN THE NW BY 12Z MON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL VALUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS COLD AND UNSETTLED. SEVERAL
CHANGES WERE MADE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY TO TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD...BUT ALSO TO RAISE POPS FOR ARCTIC SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS PROGGED INTO THE REGION TO START
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN EXTENDED SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARCTIC PUSH. RAISES POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIKELY POPS AROUND RED LODGE...AND
EXTENDED SLIGHT POTENTIAL EASTWARD. KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME...BUT POTENTIAL IN FOOTHILLS COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW...RESPECTABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...DEEP MOISTURE
LAYER...AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS COMBINE AHEAD OF COLDEST AIR TO
BRING IMPROVED POTENTIAL TO THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS INCLUDING RED
LODGE...SO TOTALS COULD CLIMB QUICKLY FOR THIS PERIOD. OVERALL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
850MB TEMPS BELOW -20C FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS BELOW ZERO EXPECT FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER
THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE...AS AM NOT SEEING
ANYTHING TO DRIVE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AT THIS TIME. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

A QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM KBIL WEST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ROUTES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
IN THE SNOW. KLVM WILL SEE CONDITIONS DROP BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS
AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE CONDITIONS AT KBIL
MAY APPROACH AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. AREAS OF MVFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
ROUTES OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KMLS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH VFR BY MID DAY ALL AREAS. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 007/018 007/023 006/013 903/000 910/902 910/007 902/012
    93/S    00/B    14/S    43/S    21/I    10/B    11/B
LVM 001/018 004/025 002/014 908/903 916/905 911/007 904/015
    +3/S    01/B    14/S    43/S    22/J    11/B    22/S
HDN 008/017 003/022 006/014 903/001 908/902 910/008 902/013
    92/S    10/B    03/S    33/S    21/I    10/B    11/B
MLS 902/013 000/020 000/011 907/901 913/901 911/009 904/010
    10/B    00/B    02/S    22/S    11/I    10/U    11/B
4BQ 004/014 000/021 004/014 904/002 911/901 910/009 901/015
    21/B    10/U    02/S    23/S    21/I    10/B    11/B
BHK 905/007 904/019 903/007 910/902 915/903 913/006 906/010
    10/B    00/B    01/E    12/S    11/I    11/B    12/S
SHR 007/014 901/022 901/014 905/001 911/903 913/008 906/014
    83/S    10/U    03/S    43/S    32/J    10/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35-39>41-64-65.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 56-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1248 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MINUS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES FROM THE STRATUS IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...LEFT
IT FOR THE MOST PART OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. FORECAST BLENDED
TO THE 05-06 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE
LATE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN MINOT WERE 24 KNOTS AT
0254Z. NONE OF THE SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CAPTURED JUST HOW
STRONG WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS BY A FEW MPH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE REMAINING WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS HAS JUST ENTERED NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTED TO 24 KNOTS WITH LIGHT FLURRIES AND
LOWERING CEILINGS AT WILLISTON AT 0017Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...GENERATING
BRIEF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED. WIND CHILLS STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TONIGHT...SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND CONSIDERATION OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

RECENT OBS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF WEAK
REFLECTIVITY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 13KM
RAP ARE INDICATING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF. WILL MENTION SCATTERED
FLURRIES TONIGHT...TRENDING FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND A
NORTHWEST WIND AT 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE NORTH. AM EXPECTING WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...NOT QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. ON SATURDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORNING LOWS AS THE COLD
POCKET SETTLES OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUCCESSIVE POCKETS OF COLD AIR/SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE COLD AIR WITH WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS LIKELY
HOISTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LOOKS MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD COVERING ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THE
COLDEST SURGE OF H85 TEMPS ARRIVE...BETWEEN -24C TO -27C. WITH THAT
SAID...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH BILLINGS AND RAPID CITY...UNDERCUT
THE ALLBLEND LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING PRECEDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF FRIGID AIR. ELSEWHERE...COLD/FRIGID AIR
DOMINATES WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

AS OF 06 UTC...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM KHCO THROUGH KJMS TO
KPIR. MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 1135 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

I didn`t make any major changes to the terminals this forecast
cycle. The latest NAM 925 MB relative humidity field indicates
stratus could move into the Big Country later tonight; however, I
believe persistent high clouds will preclude this. Thus, expect VFR
conditions at the Abilene and San Angelo terminals for the next 24
hours. The cold front, which has stalled near our Interstate 20
corridor, will begin to push farther south tomorrow afternoon. By
03Z, plan for north surface winds to dominate West Central Texas.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014/

UPDATE...
To lower temperatures across the Big country...

DISCUSSION...
A cold front is currently located just south of Interstate 20.
Models do not seem to be handling the front very well, and
temperatures across the Northern Big Country have already fallen
to forecast lows at several locations. The HRRR seems to be
handling the front best, and is forecasting the front to remain
stalled across the Big Country, with temperatures falling into the
lower to mid 30s across Haskell and Throckmorton counties, to the
lower to mid 40s for most other locations in the Big Country. I
lowered temperatures mainly north of Interstate 20, and will
continue to monitor this evening. No other changes are needed at
this time.

Daniels

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus to bring MVFR ceilings back to West Central Texas
tonight. Models this cycle indicate the stratus return will begin a
few hours earlier than it did last night, and the coverage will be
slightly farther north. As the previous forecast indicated, I don`t
think the stratus will impact the San Angelo terminal. So, expect
VFR there and at Abilene for the next 24 hours.

Huber

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Broad troughing characterizes the western half of the CONUS this
afternoon with west/southwest flow over Texas. To our west, a
shortwave trough is moving east toward the area along the southern
end of the broad troughing in place. At the surface, a cold front
with a wide range of temperatures on either side of this feature.
The temperature as of 2 PM in Haskell was 50 degrees, while in
Abilene it was 78. The front could be seen on radar imagery
continuing to slowly creep southward. However, with the
aforementioned shortwave trough approaching the area, surface
troughing across higher terrain in New Mexico and west Texas is
expected to intensify, and push this boundary back to just north of
the area overnight, so have kept lows tonight in the lower to mid
40s for areas north of Interstate 20 tonight, and upper 40s to lower
50s for the rest of the area. In any event, the front is expected to
be nearly stationary through the next 24 hours.

For Saturday, with the front stalled in or near our northern
counties, have lowered highs for this area tomorrow. South of the
front, downsloping west winds will pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and we
will see another warm day of highs in the 70s south of a Sterling
City to Brownwood line.

20

LONG TERM...
(Sunday into Friday)

..Wintry Mix possible late Saturday night and Sunday with the Big
Country the main focus of concern....

Cold air will continued flow into the region Saturday night and
Sunday. Lift associated with an upper shortwave may bring a chance
of wintry mix, mainly after 3 AM Sunday morning and continuing
through the day Sunday. GFS model indicates a combination of sleet
and freezing rain, with possible snow mixed in north of I-20. The
main focus of the wintry mix is in the Big Country, although a
mixture of freezing and sleet possible farther south to San Angelo
and Brownwood.

The main area of concern is in Big County, particularly in northern
sections: Fisher, Haskell and Throckmorton. Both the GFS and NAM
models are focusing their highest QFPs of 1/4 inch in this area.
With a 10 to 1 snow/liquid ratio, potential exists for 2-3 inches of
snow, although significant uncertainty remains if and where it may
develop. Northern areas however are more climatologically favorable
for snow. I have put in about 1 inch of snow for Sunday from Roby to
Haskell and to Throckmorton. In addition, there could be a few
hundredths inch of freezing rain/sleet throughout the Big Country.

While snow or freezing rain amounts will likely stay below winter
storm warning criteria, their impact could still be significant due
to falling temperatures into the mid and upper 20s during the day on
Sunday. Well below freezing temperatures the 20s could cause very
icy and hazardous conditions on highways, especially bridges and
overpasses. If any ice does occur, icy conditions may persist into
Monday morning as temperatures fall into the lower 20s. Temperatures
in the Big Country may not rise above freezing until late morning
morning.

A second upper shortwave will affect the region Monday afternoon and
night. Temperatures however are expected to warmer with southeast
winds, and precipitation should fall as rain. It will be still
warmer on Tuesday as a surface low moves across North Texas,
bringing compressional warming and dry westerly winds.

An arctic front still indicated to move through Tuesday night,
keeping the region very cold into Friday. Both the GFS and EC models
indicate a long wave trough approaching from the southwest, and
there it potential for some light precipitation as mid level
moisture aloft is lifted over the cold air at the surface. There is
the potential for snow (the GFS model for Abilene indicates all snow
Thursday and Thursday night). Amounts at this time appear light on
the 12Z EC and GFS models.

04

Fire Weather...

Expect elevated fire weather conditions to continue through Saturday
afternoon, especially south of Interstate 20. With slightly cooler
temperatures expected Saturday, relative humidity values will not be
as low as today, dropping into the 20 to 25 percent range. Winds
should remain below critical thresholds, remaining in the 15 to 20
mph range. MUCH colder air will move in Saturday night into Sunday
with temperatures struggling to reach freezing along and north of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line Sunday, and mid 30s to lower 40s for
the rest of the area.

Elevated to near critical conditions will return Tuesday as west
winds pick up and relative humidity values fall to near 20 percent
for areas south of I-20. Another cold air mass will move into the
area for Wednesday through the rest of the week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  46  62  27  28  22 /   0   5  10  40  10
San Angelo  48  74  31  34  24 /   0   0  10  30  10
Junction  53  76  37  39  27 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/20/Daniels/Huber






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1043 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.  ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. THE BACK EDGE OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS DIGGING OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
IS PRODUCING LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO.  AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
AND INTERACTS WITH THESE SHORTWAVES...PRECIP AND SNOW
CHANCES/IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE STATE AT
THE START OF THE EVENING...WITH ONLY SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
DURING THE EVENING WHICH WILL SET UP A PERIOD OF GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY OVERNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS A RESULT.  HAVE DROPPED LOWS ACROSS N-C
WISCONSIN WHERE HAVE CONCERNS DIDNT GO COLD ENOUGH.  MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.  SNOW WILL BE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THINK PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
12Z...BUT WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE IN CASE TIMING IS TOO SLOW.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE LATE WITH THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS
DETROIT.  STRONG FGEN BAND ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL LEAD TO A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SE WISCONSIN AND
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT MODELS POINT TOWARDS ENOUGH SATURATION ALONG
WITH QG FORCING FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  PRECIP SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MODEL QPF ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT AND USED A GENERAL BLEND AS IN INPUT INTO THE FORECAST.
WITH SNOW RATIOS OF 16 OR 17 TO 1...LOOKING AT ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SOUTH OF A MARSHFIELD TO MARINETTE LINE...HIGHEST OVER
MANITOWOC COUNTY.  MAIN PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 9AM
AND 3PM...BEFORE PRECIP PULLS OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  UNLIKE THE
PAST FEW STORMS...WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO A MINIMUM.  WITHOUT THE WIND RELATED
IMPACTS...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT.  HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC
AIR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. MAIN SNOW CHANCES
FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH SYSTEM
BASED ON 850MB THERMAL PROFILE WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY CONCERN WILL
BE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO
FILTER SOUTHWARD AND HALT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE SNOW.
HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON FINAL STORM TRACK AND
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WERE TO LOWER
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST NIGHTS AND TAILOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO DEPICT OUR USUAL WARM SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH OF STATE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE LATER MORNING HOURS. LOOKING
AT 1-2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF A GRB TO MFI LINE BY
THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL FALL OVER SOUTHERN WI. VSBYS TO FALL INTO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ONCE THE
SNOW ARRIVES. WEAK UPPER TROP MAY BRING MAINLY FLURRIES FURTHER
NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOR IMPROVING TREND.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TE










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

 334 AM PST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT PASSAGES MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW AROUND LEE VINING AND JUNE LAKE APPEARS TO
HAVE ENDED BASED ON MOST RECENT WEB CAMERA AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGES. ONLY OTHER WEATHER CONCERN TODAY IS PATCHY FREEZING FOG
THIS MORNING. SO FAR ONLY KTRK HAS REPORTED ANY REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY. HRRR GUIDANCE FAVORS AN AREA OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
CARSON SINK INCLUDING FALLON DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND
PERSISTING UNTIL MIDDAY. AT THIS TIME, WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA AND PARTS OF THE SNOW COVERED CARSON
VALLEY, ALONG WITH THE USUAL SIERRA VALLEYS NEAR AND NORTH OF
TRUCKEE.

OTHERWISE, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO
SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA, WITH
SNOW COVERED AREAS UP TO 5 DEGREES COOLER.

FOR TONIGHT, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. AHEAD OF THIS LOW, MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE AND THICKEN AS PACIFIC MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SPREADS OVER NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN NV. THIS WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN VALLEYS COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, THIS LOW IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION AREA WILL STAY WEST OF THE SIERRA, A DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE SIERRA LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE CREST. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER AS A SEPARATE WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSHES ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST
US WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST, WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH
ACROSS NEVADA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BACKING INTO MORE OF WESTERN NEVADA. MOST OF THE REGION
ALREADY HAD A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY, WHICH WILL BE
EXTENDED INTO MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON THIS TREND. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN CA/NV. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COLD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
NORTH WINDS LIMITING THE WARMING IN THE VALLEYS. THIS COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL ALSO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INVERSIONS, RESULTING
IN FAVORABLE AIR QUALITY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH THE PAC NW WITH A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS IS ALSO SHOWING
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THAT COULD POSSIBLY BRING
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE VALLEY FLOORS OF NORTHERN NEVADA ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING GOOD PRECIP
AGREEMENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD SHOT OF AIR WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE
20S-30S ON FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT (PRETTY GOOD
FOR THIS FAR OUT) WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE REACHING THE PAC NW AND
NORTHERN CA COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COMES AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALLOWS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE ANOMALY TO SET UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA (NEGATIVE PNA).
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEEING ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IN THE SIERRA FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR FZFG THIS MORNING AT KTRK. ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
FZFG AT KTRK FOR SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THICKER CIRRUS SPREADS INTO THE SIERRA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AT OTHER AREA TERMINALS. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 1023 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
HEAVY SNOW TO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR. AREAS...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A MONTICELLO...WARSAW...ANGOLA INDIAN TO
HILLSDALE MICHIGAN LINE WILL LIKELY SEE ALL THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION BY NEXT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING AND EXTEND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ADVISORY.

AS EXPECTED A MESSY SITUATION WAS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL
SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED ACROSS NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH INCH PER HOUR RATES. SOCIAL MEDIA AND SPOTTER REPORTS
ALREADY SHOWING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN BOTH THE PREVIOUS AND NOW
EXTENDED WARNING AREA AND MORE TO COME. RAP HAD A STELLAR HANDLE
ON THERMAL PROFILES WITH ALL RAIN NOW BEING REPORTED NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF FT WAYNE AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA. AT THE OFFICE WE ENCOUNTERED A PERIOD OF
SILVER DOLLAR SIZE FLAKES THAT QUICKLY ACCUMULATED A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW. REFLECTIVITY VALUES ON THE RADAR ARE CRAZY WITH SOME PUSHING
50 DBZ AS MELTING LAYER AND VERY WET SLEET/SNOWFLAKES BEING PICKED
UP. CHANGES WERE MADE IN SFC TEMPS AND QPF WITH SNOW NOW EXPECTED
MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KNOX TO ELKHART
TO COLDWATER AND A MIXTURE SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE AND NORTHWEST OF
A LOGANSPORT TO FORT WAYNE TO NAPOLEON LINE. SOUTHEAST OF THIS
FINAL LINE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN SE AREAS LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS ARE REPORTING ICING STILL OCCURRING DESPITE TEMPS OF 33
TO 36 DEGREES AS EXTREMELY COLD SURFACES WERE STRUGGLING TO
WARM...AS I HAD FEARED YESTERDAY. ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
18Z TO GIVE TIME FOR THE ICE TO MELT OFF AND WILL RECONSIDER
HEADLINES IN A FEW HOURS.

WHILE UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS DO DECREASE...RUC INDICATES A
REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP AS CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MOVES
EAST AND ALLOWS BETTER FLOW OF THETA E BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL
NEED TO WATCH CHANGE OVER LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING THAT COULD
CAUSE FURTHER ISSUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER NW ARKANSAS WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT INDICATED ON
THE 290K NAM ISENTROPIC SFC. HAVE BLENDED A NUMBER OF MODELS
YIELDING A SFC LOW TRACK FROM SOUTH OF LAF TO NEAR TOL. THERE WILL
BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM BUFKIT PROFILE AT AOH SHOWS THE WARM LAYER AT 5C...WHICH WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL THE SNOW IN THE LOWER LAYERS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER... THE LATEST NAM/06Z RUN KEEPS SBN ALL
SNOW WITH THE ENTIRE PROFILE BELOW 0C. A TIER OF COUNTIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IF THE PROFILE IS
NOT WARM ENOUGH TO MIX AT SBN. CONCERN FOR A FOOT OF SNOW THERE
WITH 295K ISENTROPIC SFC PUSHING 6 G/KG. THE GARCIA METHOD HAS
WORKED VERY WELL WITH THE PAST 2 BIG SNOW EVENTS HERE
RECENTLY...AND NOW SHOWS SNOW AMOUNT COULD BE NEAR A FOOT OVER FAR
SW LOWER MICH INTO NRN INDIANA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW EQUIV POT VORT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR MESOBANDING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MAX LIFT WITH SIGNIFICANT
FRONTOGENESIS BELOW THE EPV. IN THE SHORTER TERM...INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OVER NE IL INDICATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS
INCREASING...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED ON KLOT AND KILX VAD WIND
PROFILES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MIXED...AND THEN CHANGE TO
JUST RAIN WERE SFC TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

QUIET/NIL SENSIBLE WX FOR SUN/MON AS SWRN CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE
SPILLS ALONG SEWD ACRS HIGH PLAINS AND INTO CNTL CONUS DY2...SRN
GRTLKS/MID MS VLY ON DY3. LARGE BREADTH OF DRY/COLD/SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS SUGGESTS SOME GAINS MADE WITH CONTD TREND OF SLIGHTLY COLDER
MIN TEMPS AND CERTAINLY A MORE RAPID EVENING PLUMMET.
LEAD UPSTREAM WAVE /SUBSEQUENT TO NEAR TERM CONSIDERATIONS/IN
VIGOROUS NRN STREAM REGIME TO DIG EWD THROUGH AZ/MM IN HIGHLY
POSITIVE TILT FASHION...WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS SEQUESTERED WELL SOUTH
ALONG SRN GULF SUN/MON. DECISIVELY/PERSISTENT SPECTRAL MODEL
CONSISTENCY WRT STRONG CNTL PAC VORTEX TO IMPINGE ON NRN CAL
COASTLINE BY F48...THEREAFTER PHASING WITH NRN BC AND POLEWARD
VORTICIES DYS3/4. OPTIMAL GOMEX FEED PRESENTS BY MIDDAY TUE WITH
WIDE BREADTH OF 1000-850 MB MIXING RATIOS GTE 4 G/KG FM SRN PLAINS
THROUGH OZARKS EWD THROUGH OHIO VLY TO MIDATL RGN. GIVEN INITIAL
HIGH 925MB CPDS OF 200-300 MB ACRS CWA DAYBREAK TUE HAVE SHIFTED
TIMING OF EVENT START/HIR POPS TO LATTER HALF OF DAY...CULMINATING
WITH BULK OF SNOW EVENT SET FOR OVERNIGHT PD FOLLOWED WITH SOME
TEMPORAL DETAIL OF PULLOUT WED. STORM TRACK CLUSTERING FM LA MIDDAY
TUE THROUGH TN VLY TO UPR OH VLY/SWRN PA BY 12 UTC WED. GFS COBB
GIVES INKLING OF SIG SNOW EVENT AND WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.
WHILE STRICTLY COBB TOTALS ATTM MIGHT SUGGEST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
OF EVENTUAL WARNING EVENT/GTE 8 INCHES/24 HRS WITH 4.5-5.5 DAY
EVENT...CERTAINLY I285-290K ISENT ASCENT/MOISTURE TAP/OPPOSITIONAL
PRE/POST SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW AND DEEP/WEAK STATIC STABILITY WITHIN
UVM PROFILES...ALL BELIES POTNLY SIG AMOUNTS AND BEGS CLOSE ATTN TO
SUBSEQUENT MODEL EVOLUTION. HINT OF GFS I290K TROWAL DEVELOPMENT
ALSO OF NOTE...ESPCLY SHOULD LATER HIR RES MODELS TARGET SIMILARLY.
IN WAKE OF SYSTEM...FAVOR COLDER/LOWER END GUIDANCE AS BROAD NRN
CONUS TROFFING TO AFFORD LONG LIVED ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SPILL FM NRN
HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN CONUS. HAVE QUELLED POPS LATE IN FCST PD WITH
DISCREPANCIES OF EVENTUAL SEWD KICK OF NRN INTMTN REGN STORM
SYSTEM...MORE LIKELY DY8 BYND GIVEN SYSTEM APPEARS CUTOFF INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

CONTD FOCUS ON PRIAMRILY IFR MET CONDS ACRS NRN IN.. AT KSBN AS
HVR SNOW UPSTREAM ARRIVES SFC VSBYS TO PLUMMET. COLDER THERMAL
PROFILE COULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AS PRIMARY PTYPE THROUGH THE DAY.
DEEPENING WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD HOWEVER PROVIDE CHANGEOVER AT
KFWA AROUND 14 UTC WITH ENTIRELY LIQUID BY ERLY AFTN...THEN
TRANSITIONING BACK THROUGH MIXED PRECIP AS COLDER AIR DRAWS IN
BEHIND SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS BTWN KSBN/KFWA THIS AFTN AND THEN INTO
SERN MI.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ006>009-013-015>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>005-012-014.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ081.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 545 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES ON A DOWN TREND...OR HAS
COMPLETELY CEASED. CANCELLING CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER HAS EXITED THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO SEE IF
IT CAN BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS 9AM EXPIRATION TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

TODAY:
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING INTO
MISSOURI NOT LONG AFTER THIS ISSUANCE...AND ON THE WHOLE THAT LOOKS
TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT IS OCCURRING.  A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION
IS BEING OBSERVED AS OF THIS ISSUANCE...AND EXPECT THAT TO PERSIST.
ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIX.  THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR DEVELOP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT THIS IS THE ONLY
GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST THIS.  THUS...HAVE TAPERED POPS TO END ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING.  EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST AND TEMPERATURES TO
BE LIMITED IN UPWARD EXPANSE...HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S
EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

TONIGHT:
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL MAKE MINIMUMS
A BIT TRICKY. WILL SHADE LOWER IN THE NORTH WHERE FRESH SNOW AND
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. IF IT CLEAR AND SMOOTH EARLY...MAY NOT BE
COOL ENOUGH.

SUN-MON:
FAST MOVING SYSTEM ACROSS OK HAS TRENDED SOUTH FROM 24HRS
AGO...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG OK BORDER CONTINUE TO DECR.
HOWEVER STILL EXPECT MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM SHORTWAVE
DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SUN NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN HALF...SO EARLY LOW IS
POSSIBLE. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN EARNEST DURING THE DAY BUT
INFLUX OF CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER WARMUP. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

MODELS OVERALL STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN CHANGE
AND RESULTANT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START WITH FIRST SYSTEM ON MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TUE.
ACCUMULATING/ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW LOOKS PROBABLE AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING AS 1040+MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...OTHERWISE WOULD BE ADAMANT ABOUT DROPPING TEMPERATURES
EVEN MORE FROM THU MORNING-FRI MORNING. SOME TIME ON FRI...MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS...RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH MASSIVE/IMPRESSIVE 850MB RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO
BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THIS EVENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL
SNOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY
ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SOME RESIDUAL FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD STILL
IMPACT KCNU THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THE FREEZING
PRECIP...LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. THE SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT WITH LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. BY TONIGHT...DRYER AIR WILL BE PUSHING IN AT THE LOW
LEVELS...AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR. TAFS ARE PESSIMISTIC WITH
CEILING HEIGHT...SO COULD SEE SOME AMENDMENTS IF CONDITIONS ARE
BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    32  12  30  11 /  20  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      32  10  30  11 /  20  10  10   0
NEWTON          31   9  29  10 /  20  10  10   0
ELDORADO        31  11  29   9 /  20  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  14  30  12 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         29   3  29  10 /  10   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      31   5  30  11 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          30   4  30   8 /  20   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       31   8  30  10 /  20   0  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  17  30  15 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         30  14  28   8 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            30  13  27   7 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  14  29  11 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 1044 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RESULTS IN RAIN OVERNIGHT CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGE HAS OUR AREA BLANKETED IN CLOUD COVER AS
A WARM FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. RADAR STILL IS MORE BARK
THAN BITE...AS MUCH OF THE ECHOES VISIBLE ARE VIRGA AS DRY AIR
REMAINS LOCKED IN FROM SFC TO ABOUT 900MB...EVIDENT FROM THE 12Z
SOUNDING AND THE NEARLY 15 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREAD ON CURRENT OBS.
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS...AM EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO STIFFEN FROM THE SOUTH AND CLEAR AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR
SOUTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW...COMBINED WITH SOME
SUN SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

NO BIG CHANGES IN TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...AT LEAST WITH
THIS ROUND OF UPDATES. MODELS REMAIN LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING AND NOW THAT THE HRRR HAS SOMETHING TO LATCH ONTO...IT
TELLS A SIMILAR STORY IN TIMING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY UNDER DECENT CAA. ALL SIGNS POINT TO MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ERODING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM HOLDS
BACK ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT A FEW HOURS OF RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW COULD
OCCUR AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL THE FRONT IS WELL THROUGH AND
WITH MOISTURE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.

A SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP OUTSIDE OF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGES. EVEN THEN...SNOW WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH ONLY UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE BY NOON ON MONDAY. THAT BEING SAID...IF MODELS
TREND ANY FARTHER NORTH AT ALL THERE WOULD BE MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND WOULD PUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA UNDER THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...AND WOULD LIKELY NEED
TO INCREASE COVERAGE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR NOW OPTED TO JUST
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP AND LOW QPF AMOUNTS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSFER FROM THE RIVER VALLEY LOW TO AN OFFSHORE LOW...WHEN THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS WILL BE KEY TO THE LOCAL IMPACTS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WOULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO START AS RAIN
IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LIKELY TURN OVER TO SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS
AS WELL. 00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW HUGE DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE REGION...SO THIS IS STILL A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SHOW WILDLY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AFTER
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE GONE
WITH FORECASTS WHERE TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHICH
WILL PROBABLY STILL FEEL WARM AFTER THE TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
THIS PAST WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AT ZZV/BVI/FKL. BY THE AFTERNOON ALL SITES WILL HAVE A MID
LEVEL DECK. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THAT
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF RAIN...CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS.

.OUTLOOK..../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY...RAIN COULD POSSIBLY
MIX WITH SNOW. VFR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MGW COULD POSSIBLY SEE RESTRICTIONS AS A SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN AND SNOW WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS ELKO NV

 303 AM PST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT A RETURN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ROLLING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NEVADA...PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTH ARE PRODUCING VERY
LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IN NORTHERN NEVADA SHOWN BY THE RUC13 THAT IS COINCIDENT WITH
THESE SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA TODAY. THERE IS THE NOSE OF A WEAK 250 MB JET...WITH A WEAK VORT
MAX...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEVADA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA. IT WILL BE VERY CHILLY OUT THERE WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12 TO -14C. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH SNOW
COVER IN SOME AREAS. AS EVIDENCED THIS EVENING...ANY CLEARING
RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A TROUGH TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...AND AS A
RESULT...LITTLE TO NO WARMING EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ONCE AGAIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY THOUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE WITH
ENERGY PASSING ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT PROFILE AT THIS
TIME...AND SO ONLY EXPECTING LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS AT LESS THAN
ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN...HOWEVER DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS TO NORTH BY THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
UNSTABLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND
RETROGRADE TO NEAR THE NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER...HOWEVER MODELS
DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH LOW WILL MOVE AND HOW DEEP IT BECOMES
BEFORE WESTERLIES KICK IT EASTWARD. A 700MB FRONTAL ZONE IS DEPICTED
TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL NEVADA AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT...INCREASED POPS BUT
UNCERTAIN ON EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. LOW WILL
MOVE EAST AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY BUT TIMING VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN US.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS ALONG WITH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KELY WHERE PATCHY
FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS SHOULD BECOME VFR AFTER 16Z BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/90/90








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

 302 AM PST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR DIRER CONDITIONS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT A RETURN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ROLLING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NEVADA...PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTH ARE PRODUCING VERY
LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IN NORTHERN NEVADA SHOWN BY THE RUC13 THAT IS COINCIDENT WITH
THESE SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA TODAY. THERE IS THE NOSE OF A WEAK 250 MB JET...WITH A WEAK VORT
MAX...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEVADA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA. IT WILL BE VERY CHILLY OUT THERE WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12 TO -14C. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH SNOW
COVER IN SOME AREAS. AS EVIDENCED THIS EVENING...ANY CLEARING
RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A TROUGH TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...AND AS A
RESULT...LITTLE TO NO WARMING EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ONCE AGAIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY THOUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE WITH
ENERGY PASSING ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT PROFILE AT THIS
TIME...AND SO ONLY EXPECTING LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS AT LESS THAN
ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN...HOWEVER DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS TO NORTH BY THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
UNSTABLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND
RETROGRADE TO NEAR THE NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER...HOWEVER MODELS
DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH LOW WILL MOVE AND HOW DEEP IT BECOMES
BEFORE WESTERLIES KICK IT EASTWARD. A 700MB FRONTAL ZONE IS DEPICTED
TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL NEVADA AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT...INCREASED POPS BUT
UNCERTAIN ON EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. LOW WILL
MOVE EAST AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY BUT TIMING VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN US.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS ALONG WITH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KELY WHERE PATCHY
FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS SHOULD BECOME VFR AFTER 16Z BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/90/90






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 930 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MIDWEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AND ONLY
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND T/TD DATASESTS NEEDED AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LATEST RAP AND INCOMING NAM
CONFIRMING THAT TONIGHT`S SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS AND PERHAPS A WINTRY MIX SOUTH. WITH
A SFC LOW TRACK THROUGH THE SLV IN THE VCNTY OF OTTAWA...SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF NEARLY 50 KTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED
SHADOWING EFFECTS LIKELY IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
TONIGHT. THEREFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS
OF AROUND 1/3 INCH IN THE BTV/PBG VCNTY WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO STREAM THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING...INCR
IN NATURE AS DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SFC LOW MVG UP
ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ATTM...PRECIP IS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO BOUNDARY WITH NONE OUT AHEAD. AS
SFC LOW WORKS NORTH TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...OVERSPREADING MUCH OF AREA BY LATE AFTNOON. WITH
MDLS CARRYING SFC LOW WEST OF THE CWA THRU REST OF DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING/OVERNGT HRS...WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR RAIN/SNOW
MIX...BFR GOING SLOWLY TO ALL LIGHT SNOW DURING THE OVERNGT HRS.
0C 925/850 MB LINES WORK UP INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DACKS
AND ACROSS CENTRAL VT AT PEAK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL.THUS EXPECT SNOW
WITH POSSIBLE MIX OF SLEET IN MOST NORTHERN BORDER ZONES/DACKS.
HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WX ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS...BUT HAVE
DELAYED STARTING TIME BY A FEW HRS AND TRIMMED BACK ON TOTALS ON
ACCUM FROM 4-6" TO 3-5" BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. ELSEWHERE WITH WARM
AIR INTRUSION MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN AND SPOTTY FZRA ARE STILL ON
TAP WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES ACCUM POSSIBLE. HIGHS FOR TODAY IN
THE 30S WITH OVERNGT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SPOT 30S IN THE
CVLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SATURDAY...GOING INTO SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES PUSH THRU THE AREA WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIP GOING OVER
TO ALL -SW AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO AREA. EXPECTING
EARLY HIGHS FOR THE CWA AS TEMPS SLOWLY DROP THRU THE MORNING HRS.
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE ADVISORY IS UP
WITH LESSER AMTS SOUTH. BY SUNDAY AFTNOON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
CLRD THE CWA...LEAVING AREA UNDER WNW FLOW. EXPECTING SOME
LINGERING -SW DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS W/ ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ACCUM...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN. GOING INTO SUN EVENING/NGT...
PRECIP WILL HAVE TAPERED OFF AND GIVE WAY TO STRONG SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION. GENERAL CLRING TREND WILL
ENSUE AND CONTINUE THRU THE MONDAY TIME FRAME PROVIDING AREA A NICE
DAY. OVERALL FOR TEMPS...NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S MONDAY
AND LOWS IN THE TEEN TO SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER CLRING SKIES SUN
NGT. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S EAST AND 20S WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EST SATURDAY...OBJECTIVE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LESS
THAN NORMAL THIS PERIOD PER RELATIVELY SMALL GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD
AT BTV. GOOD SUBJECTIVE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF ALSO
NOTED.

QUIET WX TO START MON NIGHT THRU TUE WITH 1030MB SFC ANTICYCLONE
CRESTING OVER THE NERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT WINDS AND
GOOD PROSPECTS FOR CLEAR SKIES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS TUE IN THE MID-UPR 20S.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM
THE LWR MS RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE
ACROSS THE TN AND UPR OH RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RESULT IN NWD
ADVECTION OF RICH MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OF 1-1.25" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT 12Z WED. IT APPEAR FOR OUR REGION THAT
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LEADING WAA/
PROGRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC SNOWFALL DEVELOPING SW-NE ACROSS OUR
REGION 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD BECOME STEADY QUICKLY GIVEN
STRENGTH OF FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE
ALL SNOW AS PRIMARY LOW WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS INTO PA 18Z WED AND
REDEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY THAT MODELS TREND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
PROSPECTS FOR RAIN MIXING IN. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE COASTAL
REDEVELOPMENT IS CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS THAT WE HAVEN/T
INDICATED ANY MIXED PCPN/RAIN IN THE OFFICIAL FCST. 700MB TROUGH
REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE...SO LIKELY LOOKING AT A ~12 HR PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL PRE-DAWN HOURS WED THRU WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 6"+ OF
SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON STRENGTH OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION IN THIS
MORNING/S HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 26-30F.

THE WORK WEEK ENDS QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TEMPS TREND COLDER WITH NWLY FLOW. HIGHS GENERALLY UPR
TEENS THU/FRI WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THRU 18Z...THEN DEVELOPING MVFR
WITH INTERVALS OF IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING MID AFTN. SKIES HAVE
BRIEFLY CLEARED THIS MORNING WITH SCT200-250 ANTICIPATED THRU 15Z.
ONLY EXCEPTION IS NRN ADIRONDACKS AND KSLK VCNTY...WHERE LOW
STRATUS WILL PERSIST WITH LOCAL CIGS BKN-OVC015-025 WITH HIR TRRN
OBSCD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (CIGS NEAR 10 KFT) WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. APPROACHING WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWS LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD NRN NY 18-21Z
AND ACROSS VT 21-00Z...WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING AT THE TAF
SITES THRU TONIGHT. GENERALLY 1-2SM -SN EXPECTED WITH SOME IMPACT
TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS EXPECTED TOWARD THIS EVENING. MAY
SEE SOME MIX WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT
RUT AND BTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM THE S-SE DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HRS TO AROUND 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS AT BTV.
GRADIENT WIND REMAINS STRONG TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PASSES WEST OF
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 KTS DURING MOST OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT AT MPV/SLK WITH FAVORED
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. DRY AND VFR CONDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. MOISTURE LADEN FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY BRINGS ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND IMPACT TO
AIRPORT GROUND OPS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VTZ002>004-006-007-016.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 951 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TODAY...MOVING NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY. A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS TAKING PLACE FROM THE SOUTH. ALREADY ON THE
12Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING AT KMHX...THERE WAS A NARROW LAYER OF GOOD
MOISTURE JUST BELOW 850MB...AND THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS SHOWED DEW
POINTS AT THAT LEVEL NEAR 10C INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS SOUTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN A COUNTY OF THE BORDER...AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON THE RAP FORECASTS CONTINUED 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION INTO
THE AREA AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 35KT LATE IN THE DAY.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN
A CONTINUED NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. JUST BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND 700MB
THERE IS FORECAST LAYER MUCAPE AROUND 100J/KG...WHICH SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT THE AREAS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY MAKE THE PRECIPITATION
SHOWERY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 1. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
CAP THROUGH THE EVENING JUST ABOVE 700MB SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION JUST A LITTLE
FASTER ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS... AND LEFT TEMPERATURES AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS NORTH
COULD KEEP MAXES FROM REACHING POTENTIAL HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
BASED SIMPLY ON 1000-850MB THICKNESSES.

TONIGHT...THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 0.03-0.08" OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE THE SLIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY GREATER ON THE RAP RELATIVE TO THE REST OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO END FROM
WEST-EAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT (BY ~06Z)...PERHAPS LINGERING AS
LATE AS 06-09Z IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO WHAT THE
00Z HIGH RES WRF-NMM SIM REF PRODUCT SUGGESTS...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY BALMY IN COMPARISON TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER (THOUGH PERHAPS ERODING
IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT NEAR SUNRISE SUN)...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S NW TO LOWER/MID 40S SE.

IN TERMS OF THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL...TOP-DOWN DRYING WILL RAPIDLY
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WSW AND ADVECTS
A DRIER AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR N/NW
PIEDMONT. THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK SUN MORNING...WITH
LITTLE SFC ADVECTION AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT SHALLOW SATURATION
(MOST SHALLOW IN NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT) WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE. IF SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN DRYING OCCURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE AGAIN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG EAST
PARTICULARLY INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE LINGERING SNOW COVER AND
COOL GROUND BELOW INCREASING MOISTURE MAY MAKE SUCH CONDITIONS AS
LEAST AS LIKELY AS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE MSLP
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF A SFC TROUGH /COLD FRONT/
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP WEST OF I-95.
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F IN THE NW
PIEDMONT TO LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

...RAIN EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH OF IMPORTANT FEATURES EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THIS TIME FOR OUR REGION THIS PERIOD. THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO
EJECT EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ARE TAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AS A WELL DEFINED SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT... THEN ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME... A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT THIS HIGH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
COLD ENOUGH AIR INTO NC BEFORE THE MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER... A CAD EVENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AS MUCH OF OUR REGION SAVE THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TRACK. JUST NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A CHILLY RAIN
AND NE FLOW. THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES WITH
RAIN DEVELOPING. LOWS 35-45 NORTH TO SE. RAIN MONDAY... POSSIBLY
HEAVY IN THE MORNING... TAPERING OFF IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. HIGHS
40-45 NORTH... 50-55 SOUTHEAST.

THE CAD EVENT DRIVEN BY THE FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW OFFSHORE
AND CHILLY 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THEN YET ANOTHER "WET" SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A WARM
FRONT WILL TRY TO RETURN INTO OUR CAD OVER THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WAA RAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE. LOWS 33-38. TUESDAY... AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH
RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 38 NW TO 55 SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. RESIDUAL CAD SHOULD LINGER IN THE PIEDMONT... WITH
WARMING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAD BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING IN
THE WEST LATE. LOWS WED NIGHT GENERALLY 38-50. HIGH WEDNESDAY 50 NW
TO 65-70 SE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST IS
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO NC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN. LOWS 25-32. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SE.

FRIDAY... A THIRD WET SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
RAIN BY LATER FRIDAY IF NOT BEFORE. TIMING AND DETAILS ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR A STORM TRACK SIMILAR TO THE TWO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. A
COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AND IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO DELIVER COLD DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. HOWEVER... TAKING A MEAN ENSEMBLE APPROACH
PRODUCES A MILLER TYPE B STORM WITH THE MAIN STORM POSSIBLY TRACKING
JUST TO OUR WEST... AND A NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT IF THERE ARE P-TYPE ISSUES... THEY WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/RAIN. CURRENT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FORECAST
THAT FAR OUT... WITH LOW CONFIDENCE... SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN... WITH A
CHANCE OF THE PRECIPIATION BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IN
THE TRIAD REGION. FOR NOW... WE WILL CARRY LIQUID... WITH A START
TIME AFTER NOON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BUT THE CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH IN THAT CAD WOULD BE LIMITED TO HYBRID
AND NOT CLASSICAL (IN WHICH THERE IS A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF COLD AIR
INTO THE SYSTEM). THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE REFINED AS THESE SYSTEMS
EVOLVE THROUGH THE WEEK.

INC. CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 30-35. A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS 37-45 NW TO SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 950 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CEILINGS ADVECT NORTH INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR (1500-2500 FT AGL)
FROM SOUTH-NORTH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. THEREAFTER...WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL NC AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR (700-1200 FT AGL) AT ALL TERMINALS BY 00-
03Z...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00-06Z...PRIMARILY AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS.
THOUGH TOP-DOWN DRYING WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE WSW...MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE SFC-925 MB LAYER AND
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO LIFR AND/OR
THAT DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 06-12Z SUN.

LOOKING AHEAD: A 10-15 KT SOUTHWEST BREEZE DEVELOPING MID/LATE
SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW
LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO MIX OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
BY 15-18Z...ESPECIALLY AT THE INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS. FURTHER EAST AT
THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER FOR SHALLOW
MOISTURE TO MIX OUT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS
LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS CENTRAL OR
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND TRACK NE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON TUE/WED...WITH A STRONG
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE MTNS AND WIDESPREAD
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NW/NNW WINDS AND A RAPID RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WED/WED NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 144 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
1053 AM CST

WE WILL BE CANCELING HEADLINES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS IT
APPEARS THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A CHICAGO TO MENDOTA LINE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

WE ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME MODERATE PRECIP RATES AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS FGEN CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN FROM PNT...THROUGH IKK TO VPZ AND POINTS SOUTH. STILL
APPEARS THAT ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH UP AROUND A QUARTER INCH
ACROSS THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...SO IT IS
LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR HERE AS
WELL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK IN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE WINTER MIX TO CHANCE BACK OVER TO SNOW. SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THERE.

IN THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH AT MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
THIS COMBINED WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ON THE GROUND ALREADY
COULD PUSH AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 6 INCHES. THEREFORE...I WILL LEAVE THE
WARNING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE CHICAGO AREA MINUS THE NORTHERN
AND FAR WESTERN SUBURBS.

KJB

//PREV DISCUSSION...
333 AM CST

THIS MORNING...

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER A LULL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION UPSTREAM OF THE
FORECAST AREA COUPLED WITH A POTENT LLVL FORCING IS GENERATING A
NARROW CHANNEL OF INTENSE PRECIPITATION.

MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAD A LULL...LARGELY IN PART TO THE
QUASI-STATIONARY SFC RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
RESULTED IN A CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER LLVL AIR INTO NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUDS CONTINUED TO
BE ERODED AS IT PUSHED NORTHEAST INTO THE PESKY ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE. MEANWHILE WELL UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA IN EASTERN
KANSAS/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHERE STRONG FGEN FORCING AND
CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE...A NARROW CHANNEL OF INTENSE
PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED FROM SFC OBS INDICATING M1/4SM VSBYS WITH
+SN. BY 9Z THIS MORNING THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAD QUICKLY EXPANDED
NORTHEAST...AS A LARGE SLUG OF WATER VAPOR PUSHED INTO NORTHEAST
IA/NORTHWEST IL/NORTHEAST MO. LOCAL RADAR NOTED STEADILY INCREASING
RETURNS BY 9Z OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A HANDFUL OF POINTS
ALONG AND WEST OF A STERLING TO PONTIAC LINE BEGINNING TO REPORT LGT
SNOW.

THEN THE CHALLENGE BEGINS FOR MID-MORNING THRU MIDDAY...WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA RECEIVE.
THEN TO THE NORTH OF THIS...HOW MUCH SNOW. DUE TO THE PESKY SFC
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE BETTER PUSH OF WARMER LLVL AIR HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IL WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE HOVERING EARLY
THIS MORNING ARND 32 DEGREES. HOWEVER EXPECT WITH THE RAPID GROWTH
AND EXPANSION OF THE MODERATE SNOW OVERSPREADING NORTHERN IL BY
11-14Z...TEMPS SOUTH OF LASALLE TO KANKAKEE WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO
THE UPR 20S.

MOST GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF TOTALS FOR
TDY...LARGELY DUE TO THE LULL OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE WAVE AT 850MB
REMAINING OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE...THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SOME SENSE.
HOWEVER WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS GOING ON UPSTREAM EARLY THIS
MORNING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES. THE ONE AREA
THAT CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON IS THAT SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
FALL JUST UNDER EARLIER THINKING. HAVE HELD ONTO THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WARNING AND ADVISORIES...BUT FEEL IT WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND 5 TO 8". LOCAL HI-RES WRF OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF BETTER QPF AND SNOWFALL WOULD FALL FURTHER
SOUTH THEN CURRENT THINKING...OR ALONG A LASALLE/PONTIAC TO SOUTH
CHICAGO/MICHIGAN CITY LINE. COBB OUTPUT FOR A HANDFUL OF POINTS
INDICATE GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 7".

AS FOR FREEZING RAIN...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION NOTED EARLY
THIS MORNING UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...IS SHOWING UP IN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. HOWEVER PROFILES ONLY HUG
THE 0 DEG ISOTHERM...SUGGESTING THAT PERHAPS ONLY A PARTIAL MELT
WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING THAT IS ANTICIPATED...WILL
CONTINUE TO OPT FOR A FULL MELT IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA WITH P-TYPE
CHANGING TO FZRA OR A PERIOD OF RA LATER THIS MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTN.

THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL BE SLOWER TO END THIS AFTN FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRIFTS EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD SEE THE NEED FOR LGT SNOW LINGERING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWFA INTO THE LATE AFTN HOURS BEFORE ENDING. TEMPS FOR
THE BULK OF THE CWFA WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 20S...WITH AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF LASALLE TO CHICAGO SEEING TEMPS ARND 30 TO THE
LOWER 30S. CLOSER TO GIBSON CITY TO DEMOTTE TEMPS MAY WARM INTO THE
UPR 30S.

BEACHLER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY ALBEIT COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C AND EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO
ONLY BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TEENS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
NIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR SETTING UP A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP RESULTING IN
LOWS ONCE AGAIN FALLING BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SURFACE HIGH
STAYS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT OUR NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE
TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
CLOSED CIRCULATION READILY APPARENT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS
MORNING WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN LIFT
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN EARLY TUESDAY OVER ARKLATEX THEN LIFT INTO THE
MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS WITH FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS
THIS FAR OUT. TOP-DOWN SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
LOW TUESDAY IN THE WARM ADVECTION...THEN DEFORMATION ZONE WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE TO SUSPECT THAT GUIDANCE IS SPREADING
THE PRECIP TOO FAR NORTHWEST AND EXPECT THAT A SHARPER CUTOFF IN THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR THAN MODELS ARE DEPICTING GIVEN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR THIS REASON PREFER A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE
GEM WHICH KEEPS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR...AGAIN BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTED SURFACE LOW
PATH. WITH THE UPPER WAVE STILL OFFSHORE...WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN THE COMING DAYS SO THERE WILL BE
REFINEMENTS...THOUGH SEVERAL INCHES APPEAR FAVORABLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
STRONG 1040MB+ HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVERHEAD WITH
SOME UNDULATIONS IN THE WEST COAST TROUGH...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

DEUBELBEISS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
  VIS/CIG POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING MVFR
  CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KT GRADUALLY BACKING NORTH-
  NORTHWEST BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE AROUND 10-12 KT
  LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DECATUR IL AT 17Z...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY THIS
EVENING. MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING
ALONG/SOUTH OF A KUIN-KPNT-KJXN...WITH MAINLY LIGHTER SNOW
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN IL TERMINALS AND KGYY. A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ALLOWING PRECIP TO END. FOR THIS AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM VFR/HIGH-END MVFR FAR
NORTHWEST AT KRFD...WITH LOW-MVFR/OCNL IFR AT DPA/ORD/MDW/GYY
WHERE MORE FREQUENT/SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS WILL OCCUR
CLOSER TO LOW TRACK AND ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. OCCASIONAL VIS DOWN
TO 1 TO 1 1/2SM LIKELY FOR ORD/MDW...WITH ANYTHING LOWER THAN THAT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY BRIEF IF IT OCCURS. FORCING GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO
DIMINISH AND CIGS TO IMPROVE TO OVERALL MVFR OR PERHAPS EVEN
MVFR/OCNL VFR.

AS FOR WINDS...WITH THE LOW CENTER PASSING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST...AND EVENTUALLY MORE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 12-15 KT POSSIBLE AS
COOLER AIR SPREADS IN LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TRENDS...AND ASSOCIATED IMPACT ON
  VIS/CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SNOW AND IFR LIKELY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
          NIGHT. EAST FLOW.
WEDNESDAY...CHC OF SNOW AND IFR.
THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY.
FRIDAY...SLGT CHC OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT.

MTF

&&

.MARINE...
255 AM CST

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GET SHOVED NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OZARKS
NORTHEAST TO NEAR LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL DEVELOP A
NORTHERLY WIND BY MIDDAY AND LEAD TO A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE IN
SPEED THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD MAXIMIZE UP TO 25 KT TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LAKE FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW AND AN INCOMING HIGH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE CONDITIONS GENERALLY
TRANQUIL OVER THE LAKE IN THAT TIME. A LARGER SYSTEM HAS BEEN
SHOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL INEVITABLY SHIFT SOME NORTH/SOUTH AT TIMES IN FUTURE
RUNS...BUT EVEN CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
APPROACHING NORTHERLY GALES ACROSS THE LAKE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE BACK ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARED THROUGH
THE VEIL OF CIRRUS THAT ICE COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE LIKELY HAD
SHRUNK SOMEWHAT FROM THE LAST ANALYSIS...PROBABLY AS A RESULT OF
STRONG WINDS ON THURSDAY. DID NOT GET TOO FANCY BUT MINIMIZED THE
ICE COVERAGE SLIGHTLY WHICH RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVES IN
THE OPEN WATER FORECAST. NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL SEE A STRONG
ONSHORE COMPONENT TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY EXIST. WAVES WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY
BE AT LEVEL WITHOUT ICE...BUT WITH ICE COVERAGE DAMPENING THEM
SOME...WILL NOT BE HOISTING AN ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
     SATURDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1158 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2014
Very minor updates to the grids as the low pressure center moves
up and through central Illinois slightly ahead of schedule. With
the track of the low moving up just south of the Interstate 55
corridor, the cold air is wrapping around the storm and dropping
temps to the SW, with Jacksonville dropping over the last two obs.
As a result, have adjusted the wintry mix through the center of
the CWA a touch and extended a bit to the SE for later this
afternoon. Have also extended the NWrn edge of the winter wx
advisory through 00z to cover the mix precip and the cooler air
countering the WAA to the south and east. Delineation btwn
FZRA/SN/RA not as distinct and as a result, the slushy mix and
fzra potential with the cold air moving in behind the low and to
the sw of the center...the potential is increasing. Though the
moisture and radar returns to the west and southwest are
dropping...fzdz will still be an issue. That being said, the NAM
and the HRRR redevelops the precip SE of I-55 through the
afternoon. Update out momentarily.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1115 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2014
Not much in the way of changes overall. Low center moving up and
across the area, wrapping cold air around the storm and possibly
resulting in a quicker change over to fzra or sn at SPI this
afternoon. WAA from south on the east side of IL slowing on its
progression to the north, leaving BMI in fzra through the evening.
Any warm up above freezing will likely be brief. DEC and CMI above
freezing at the sfc. Most TAF sites in Central IL dropped to
LIFR...IFR vis, with some exceptions. Winds eventually coming
around to more N/NWrly as the system moves out this afternoon.
Precip will also switch over to all sn as storm exits btwn 00z and
06z. Maintaining an MVFR cig through 18z per time heights of GFS
and NAM...although there is a brief break in the llvl moisture on HRRR
btwn 12z and 15z. However...should the breaks materialize...vis
drops will be significant problem. Will be watching the t/td
spread to the NW closely through the afternoon...but vis may be a
significant problem after 06z.

HJS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 335 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2014

Models seem to be in fairly good agreement with the current
system, but continue to have timing issues with the next system
early next week...in the first part of the extended. The main
concerns this package do include the system today through tonight,
and then the system for Tuesday and Tue night. Overall, models
agree that a southwest flow will continue through the short term
period and into the long term period as well.

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday

The first system will move through the area today with a mix of
freezing rain and sleet across the mid section, snow north, and
all rain to the southeast where temps are slightly above freezing.
Based on radar trends the heaviest pcpn appears to be along and
north of I-72, with lighter amounts to the south. So the winter
storm warning will continue today with freezing rain, sleet and
snow across the warning area. The winter weather advisory will
also continue for areas along I-72 where minor ice accumulations
will occur. As the system moves northeast into the area,
temperatures will warm causing the freezing rain to change to all
rain. Timing for when this will occur is tricky, though it appears
it will occur toward the later part of the morning. As the system
continues to move northeast, colder air will get pulled around to
the back side of the system and change the pcpn to all snow.
Heaviest snowfall amounts will be along and northwest of the
Illinois river. Beyond tonight, conditions wild be dry as high
pressure builds into the area for the remainder of the weekend.

Temperatures will be warmer today, but then cool again as colder
air moves into the area behind the system and before the next
system.

LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday

The next system will affect the area sometime Tuesday and Tue
night as it approaches from the southwest. Current forecasts
indicate that the pcpn with this system will be all snow. Models
remain slightly different on timing of the snow, but all agree
that its coming, so pops have been increased to likely. Current
indications and forecast tracks would place the heaviest snow band
north of I-72 through the period. Then dry weather will return for
the remainder of the week.

Temperatures through the period will remain cold with coldest
temperatures expected Wed night through Thur night.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>050.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ044-
045-051>053.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1139 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
1053 AM CST

WE WILL BE CANCELING HEADLINES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS IT
APPEARS THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A CHICAGO TO MENDOTA LINE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

WE ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME MODERATE PRECIP RATES AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS FGEN CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN FROM PNT...THROUGH IKK TO VPZ AND POINTS SOUTH. STILL
APPEARS THAT ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH UP AROUND A QUARTER INCH
ACROSS THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...SO IT IS
LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR HERE AS
WELL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK IN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE WINTER MIX TO CHANCE BACK OVER TO SNOW. SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THERE.

IN THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH AT MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
THIS COMBINED WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ON THE GROUND ALREADY
COULD PUSH AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 6 INCHES. THEREFORE...I WILL LEAVE THE
WARNING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE CHICAGO AREA MINUS THE NORTHERN
AND FAR WESTERN SUBURBS.

KJB

//PREV DISCUSSION...
333 AM CST

THIS MORNING...

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER A LULL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION UPSTREAM OF THE
FORECAST AREA COUPLED WITH A POTENT LLVL FORCING IS GENERATING A
NARROW CHANNEL OF INTENSE PRECIPITATION.

MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAD A LULL...LARGELY IN PART TO THE
QUASI-STATIONARY SFC RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
RESULTED IN A CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER LLVL AIR INTO NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUDS CONTINUED TO
BE ERODED AS IT PUSHED NORTHEAST INTO THE PESKY ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE. MEANWHILE WELL UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA IN EASTERN
KANSAS/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHERE STRONG FGEN FORCING AND
CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE...A NARROW CHANNEL OF INTENSE
PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED FROM SFC OBS INDICATING M1/4SM VSBYS WITH
+SN. BY 9Z THIS MORNING THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAD QUICKLY EXPANDED
NORTHEAST...AS A LARGE SLUG OF WATER VAPOR PUSHED INTO NORTHEAST
IA/NORTHWEST IL/NORTHEAST MO. LOCAL RADAR NOTED STEADILY INCREASING
RETURNS BY 9Z OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A HANDFUL OF POINTS
ALONG AND WEST OF A STERLING TO PONTIAC LINE BEGINNING TO REPORT LGT
SNOW.

THEN THE CHALLENGE BEGINS FOR MID-MORNING THRU MIDDAY...WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA RECEIVE.
THEN TO THE NORTH OF THIS...HOW MUCH SNOW. DUE TO THE PESKY SFC
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE BETTER PUSH OF WARMER LLVL AIR HAS REMAINED
WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IL WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE HOVERING EARLY
THIS MORNING ARND 32 DEGREES. HOWEVER EXPECT WITH THE RAPID GROWTH
AND EXPANSION OF THE MODERATE SNOW OVERSPREADING NORTHERN IL BY
11-14Z...TEMPS SOUTH OF LASALLE TO KANKAKEE WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO
THE UPR 20S.

MOST GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF TOTALS FOR
TDY...LARGELY DUE TO THE LULL OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE WAVE AT 850MB
REMAINING OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE...THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SOME SENSE.
HOWEVER WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS GOING ON UPSTREAM EARLY THIS
MORNING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES. THE ONE AREA
THAT CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON IS THAT SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
FALL JUST UNDER EARLIER THINKING. HAVE HELD ONTO THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WARNING AND ADVISORIES...BUT FEEL IT WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND 5 TO 8". LOCAL HI-RES WRF OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF BETTER QPF AND SNOWFALL WOULD FALL FURTHER
SOUTH THEN CURRENT THINKING...OR ALONG A LASALLE/PONTIAC TO SOUTH
CHICAGO/MICHIGAN CITY LINE. COBB OUTPUT FOR A HANDFUL OF POINTS
INDICATE GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 7".

AS FOR FREEZING RAIN...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION NOTED EARLY
THIS MORNING UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...IS SHOWING UP IN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. HOWEVER PROFILES ONLY HUG
THE 0 DEG ISOTHERM...SUGGESTING THAT PERHAPS ONLY A PARTIAL MELT
WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING THAT IS ANTICIPATED...WILL
CONTINUE TO OPT FOR A FULL MELT IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA WITH P-TYPE
CHANGING TO FZRA OR A PERIOD OF RA LATER THIS MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTN.

THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL BE SLOWER TO END THIS AFTN FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRIFTS EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD SEE THE NEED FOR LGT SNOW LINGERING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWFA INTO THE LATE AFTN HOURS BEFORE ENDING. TEMPS FOR
THE BULK OF THE CWFA WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 20S...WITH AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF LASALLE TO CHICAGO SEEING TEMPS ARND 30 TO THE
LOWER 30S. CLOSER TO GIBSON CITY TO DEMOTTE TEMPS MAY WARM INTO THE
UPR 30S.

BEACHLER

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY ALBEIT COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C AND EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO
ONLY BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TEENS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
NIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR SETTING UP A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP RESULTING IN
LOWS ONCE AGAIN FALLING BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SURFACE HIGH
STAYS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT OUR NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE
TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
CLOSED CIRCULATION READILY APPARENT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS
MORNING WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN LIFT
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN EARLY TUESDAY OVER ARKLATEX THEN LIFT INTO THE
MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS WITH FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS
THIS FAR OUT. TOP-DOWN SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
LOW TUESDAY IN THE WARM ADVECTION...THEN DEFORMATION ZONE WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE TO SUSPECT THAT GUIDANCE IS SPREADING
THE PRECIP TOO FAR NORTHWEST AND EXPECT THAT A SHARPER CUTOFF IN THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR THAN MODELS ARE DEPICTING GIVEN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR THIS REASON PREFER A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE
GEM WHICH KEEPS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR...AGAIN BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTED SURFACE LOW
PATH. WITH THE UPPER WAVE STILL OFFSHORE...WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN THE COMING DAYS SO THERE WILL BE
REFINEMENTS...THOUGH SEVERAL INCHES APPEAR FAVORABLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
STRONG 1040MB+ HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVERHEAD WITH
SOME UNDULATIONS IN THE WEST COAST TROUGH...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

DEUBELBEISS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
  VIS/CIG POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING MVFR
  CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KT GRADUALLY BACKING NORTH-
  NORTHWEST BY MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE AROUND 10-12 KT LATE
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DECATUR IL AT 17Z...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY THIS
EVENING. MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING
ALONG/SOUTH OF A KUIN-KPNT-KJXN...WITH MAINLY LIGHTER SNOW
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN IL TERMINALS AND KGYY. A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING AND ALLOWING PRECIP TO END. FOR THIS AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM VFR/HIGH-END MVFR FAR
NORTHWEST AT KRFD...WITH LOW-MVFR/OCNL IFR AT DPA/ORD/MDW/GYY
WHERE MORE FREQUENT/SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS WILL OCCUR
CLOSER TO LOW TRACK AND ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. OCCASIONAL VIS DOWN
TO 1 TO 1 1/2SM LIKELY FOR ORD/MDW...WITH ANYTHING LOWER THAN THAT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY BRIEF IF IT OCCURS. FORCING GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO
DIMINISH AND CIGS TO IMPROVE TO OVERALL MVFR OR PERHAPS EVEN
MVFR/OCNL VFR.

AS FOR WINDS...WITH THE LOW CENTER PASSING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST...AND EVENTUALLY MORE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 12-15 KT POSSIBLE AS
COOLER AIR SPREADS IN LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

RATZER


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TRENDS...AND ASSOCIATED IMPACT ON
  VIS/CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...SNOW AND IFR LIKELY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
          NIGHT. EAST FLOW.
WEDNESDAY...CHC OF SNOW AND IFR.
THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY.
FRIDAY...SLGT CHC OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT.

MTF

&&

.MARINE...
255 AM CST

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GET SHOVED NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OZARKS
NORTHEAST TO NEAR LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL DEVELOP A
NORTHERLY WIND BY MIDDAY AND LEAD TO A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE IN
SPEED THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD MAXIMIZE UP TO 25 KT TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LAKE FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW AND AN INCOMING HIGH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE CONDITIONS GENERALLY
TRANQUIL OVER THE LAKE IN THAT TIME. A LARGER SYSTEM HAS BEEN
SHOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL INEVITABLY SHIFT SOME NORTH/SOUTH AT TIMES IN FUTURE
RUNS...BUT EVEN CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
APPROACHING NORTHERLY GALES ACROSS THE LAKE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE BACK ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARED THROUGH
THE VEIL OF CIRRUS THAT ICE COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE LIKELY HAD
SHRUNK SOMEWHAT FROM THE LAST ANALYSIS...PROBABLY AS A RESULT OF
STRONG WINDS ON THURSDAY. DID NOT GET TOO FANCY BUT MINIMIZED THE
ICE COVERAGE SLIGHTLY WHICH RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVES IN
THE OPEN WATER FORECAST. NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL SEE A STRONG
ONSHORE COMPONENT TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY EXIST. WAVES WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY
BE AT LEVEL WITHOUT ICE...BUT WITH ICE COVERAGE DAMPENING THEM
SOME...WILL NOT BE HOISTING AN ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-
     ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032
     UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM
     SATURDAY.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM
     SATURDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1114 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2014
Very minor updates to the grids as the low pressure center moves
up and through central Illinois slightly ahead of schedule. With
the track of the low moving up just south of the Interstate 55
corridor, the cold air is wrapping around the storm and dropping
temps to the SW, with Jacksonville dropping over the last two obs.
As a result, have adjusted the wintry mix through the center of
the CWA a touch and extended a bit to the SE for later this
afternoon. Have also extended the NWrn edge of the winter wx
advisory through 00z to cover the mix precip and the cooler air
countering the WAA to the south and east. Delineation btwn
FZRA/SN/RA not as distinct and as a result, the slushy mix and
fzra potential with the cold air moving in behind the low and to
the sw of the center...the potential is increasing. Though the
moisture and radar returns to the west and southwest are
dropping...fzdz will still be an issue. That being said, the NAM
and the HRRR redevelops the precip SE of I-55 through the
afternoon. Update out momentarily.


HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 554 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2014

IFR ceilings/visbys expected today, as low pressure tracks through
the area. Precip type will be tricky as warmer air flows northward
ahead of the approaching system. Models continue to show a
pronounced warm layer aloft, resulting in mainly freezing rain at
the KILX TAF sites early this morning. The exception will be KPIA
where snow will be the dominant precip type throughout the entire
event. Given surface temps already approaching the freezing mark,
have transitioned the precip to rain at KDEC/KCMI by 14z and at
KSPI by 15z. Will maintain freezing rain into the afternoon at
KBMI thanks tp slightly colder temps. As low pulls away and winds
become northwesterly, precip will change to light snow across the
board late this afternoon into the evening. Models suggest a
secondary wave moving along the departing front will keep chances
for light snow alive until shortly after midnight when precip
finally tapers off and comes to an end.

Barnes
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 335 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2014

Models seem to be in fairly good agreement with the current
system, but continue to have timing issues with the next system
early next week...in the first part of the extended. The main
concerns this package do include the system today through tonight,
and then the system for Tuesday and Tue night. Overall, models
agree that a southwest flow will continue through the short term
period and into the long term period as well.

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday

The first system will move through the area today with a mix of
freezing rain and sleet across the mid section, snow north, and
all rain to the southeast where temps are slightly above freezing.
Based on radar trends the heaviest pcpn appears to be along and
north of I-72, with lighter amounts to the south. So the winter
storm warning will continue today with freezing rain, sleet and
snow across the warning area. The winter weather advisory will
also continue for areas along I-72 where minor ice accumulations
will occur. As the system moves northeast into the area,
temperatures will warm causing the freezing rain to change to all
rain. Timing for when this will occur is tricky, though it appears
it will occur toward the later part of the morning. As the system
continues to move northeast, colder air will get pulled around to
the back side of the system and change the pcpn to all snow.
Heaviest snowfall amounts will be along and northwest of the
Illinois river. Beyond tonight, conditions wild be dry as high
pressure builds into the area for the remainder of the weekend.

Temperatures will be warmer today, but then cool again as colder
air moves into the area behind the system and before the next
system.

LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday

The next system will affect the area sometime Tuesday and Tue
night as it approaches from the southwest. Current forecasts
indicate that the pcpn with this system will be all snow. Models
remain slightly different on timing of the snow, but all agree
that its coming, so pops have been increased to likely. Current
indications and forecast tracks would place the heaviest snow band
north of I-72 through the period. Then dry weather will return for
the remainder of the week.

Temperatures through the period will remain cold with coldest
temperatures expected Wed night through Thur night.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>050.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ044-
045-051>053.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 547 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW TONIGHT AS
COLDER AIR RETURNS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH COLD DRY WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...YET ANOTHER STORM
MAY BRING MORE SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 20Z AS WARM
ADVECTION HAS DRAWN MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

STARTING OFF A NEW MONTH WITH THE SAME OLD STORY...ANOTHER SHOT OF
WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS BACK INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BUT AT A SLOW PACE AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE MEAN UPPER FLOW. THE RESULT FROM THIS WILL
BE FOR NEAR SURFACE COOLING TO COMMENCE AT A FASTER PACE THAN THE
ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING OVER THE PRECIP SHIELD BEGINNING
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF A
MESSIER TRANSITION PERIOD OF 1-3 HOURS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL
SNOW. CURRENT HRRR EVEN HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING TO
SNOW OVER NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHICH MAY SERVE TO
TRANSFER TO SNOW MORE QUICKLY AND PRODUCE ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMS OF ICE AND SNOW. OTHER
THAN FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... EXPECT PRECIP FALLING AS ALL SNOW
OVER MOST AREAS AFTER 08-09Z. LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT.

HAVE CHOSEN TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR TONIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT
SNOW/ICE ACCUMS AND POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS WITH REFREEZING AS
TEMPS FALL. AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS JUST TOO HIGH TO
WARRANT ISSUING AN ADVISORY AS TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND EXTENT
OF TIME A CERTAIN PRECIP TYPE FALLS WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS. EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST AS NEEDED.

TEMPS...USED NAM HOURLIES FOR TEMPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
THEY FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POPS FOR SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY
WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SHIFT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SHIELD NORTH...WITH
SOME SUGGESTIONS THAT LIGHT SNOW MAY MANAGE TO GET NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT WILL WARRANT
LINGERING POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FROM EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY ON
WITH DEEPER FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFTS NORTH
HOWEVER WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE INTRODUCING LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ORGANIZES
OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF.

TEMPS...GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER MAVMOS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH MATCHED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMALS. COULD
SEE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT NORTH TO SOUTH FOR LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHERE
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND WOULD HELP TEMPS TUMBLE. CLOUD SHIELD FROM
SURFACE WAVE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP A
BIT FROM I-70 SOUTH...POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 20 IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

FOCUS REMAINS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

CONTINUE TO PREFER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LESS RELIANCE ON
SOMEWHAT LESS CONSISTENT GFS. GFS LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST AND EURO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH EURO REMAINS
CONSISTENTLY THE COLDER MODEL AND GFS WARMER ODDLY ENOUGH. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN LOOSELY CLUSTERED BUT AROUND A FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TRACK THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT THIS HAS YET TO TRANSLATE
TO A COLDER SOLUTION IN THE LOW LEVELS.

AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL SNOW MAINLY NORTH/NORTHWEST OF
INDY...WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN A SWATH
SOUTH OF THIS...AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ALL PRECIP
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY LIKELY SNOW OR QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.

MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY AND AS SUCH AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. BANDING WILL BE AN ISSUE WHICH COULD IMPACT
BOTH AMOUNTS AND PRECIP TYPE OWING TO DYNAMIC EFFECTS.

MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME. CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET/ICE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPES AND CHANGE
OVER TIMING AS SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LIFTING OVER THE FRONT CONTINUING
WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH KLAF...WITH SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
SUGGESTING FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REMAINING TAF SITES BY 020200Z. COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER DISAPPEARING WITHING ABOUT 4-6 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SUGGESTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY THAT TIME. WILL USE
THIS THINKING TO TIME THE CHANGEOVER AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS WELL EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE. APPEARS SURFACE FREEZING LINE WILL BE
CLOSE TO KLAF BY ISSUANCE TIME...SO WILL START THAT SITE WITH
FREEZING RAIN.

OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECTING AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH IFR CEILINGS AROUND
005-006 AGL ALONG WITH IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 534 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 526 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY...AND THEN BRING A POTENTIAL OF SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

...MESSY AFTERNOON/EVENING ON TAP FOR THE AREA...

AS OF 230 PM...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A KANKAKEE...TO GOSHEN TO ANGOLA
LINE WERE SEEING ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
NEAR 40 (FAR SOUTHEAST). PRIOR TO MIXING/SWITCHOVER...NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAME IN ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR WHITE COUNTY...A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN
EXPECTED. RUC HAS BEEN HANDLING MANY OF THE FINER DETAILS QUITE WELL
AND WAS USED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY FOR THE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING.
THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT
ALSO SHOWING A FASTER TREND SO PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT CHANGE OVER TIMES
STILL LOOK REASONABLE. AS THE TRANSITION COMMENCES A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. ONCE THIS OCCURS...SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH ADDITIONAL QPF VALUES OF ROUGHLY ONE QUARTER
INCH OR SO IN FAR NW AREAS TO A BAND OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR
MORE IN SE HALF OR SO. MUCH OF THIS HEAVIER PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN...BUT MUCH LIKE FURTHER NW A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN
INCH WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW. JUST AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER
TODAY...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN TRANSITION TO WARRANT ANY
HEADLINE CHANGES. IT COULD BE CLOSE FOR FULL WARNING CRITERIA BEING
MET IN SOME AREAS...BUT WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR A COMBINATION OF
EARLIER SNOW AND EXPECTED SNOW BEHIND THE LOW SO SHOULD WORK OUT FOR
THE MOST PART. FURTHER UPDATES AND REFINEMENTS ARE LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ONCE TEMPS START TO FALL..ROAD CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MESSY AND VERY SLIPPERY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

ENERGETIC IMPULSE LADEN FLW EMBEDDED WITHIN PROJECTED NEG PNA PATTN
ACRS NOAM SPELLS HIGH IMPACT WX ACRS THE OH VALLEY THIS PD. OF NOTE
CONTS TO BE W/SYS SEEN THIS AFTN ON VAPOR OUT NR 42N/137W WHICH DIGS
SEWD INTO NRN BAHA ON MON AND THEN LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE LWR OH
VALLEY AS LARGER SCALE ARCTIC STREAM SW DROPS SWD INTO THE WRN US.

PRONOUNCED POLAR RIDGING BLDG IN WAKE OF SHRT TERM SYS PASSAGE TO
PROVIDE A BRIEF DRY BUT COLD RESPITE FROM WINTERS ONSLAUGHT. HWVR
DEEP SRN PLAINS EJECTION POINT AND STG GOMEX RTN FLW INTO SRN
PERIPHERY OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE LOOK TO PROVIDE FOR SIG CYCLONE
DVLPMNT OVR THE LWR MS VALLEY EARLY TUE AND UP THROUGH THE ERN OH
VALLEY ON WED AS EXEMPLIFIED IN STABLE SPECTRAL TRACK. DETAILS AS
YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT SIG IMPACTS XPCD BOTH W/WIND AND SNOW
PARTICULARLY TUE AFTN-WED AM.

OTRWS ARCTIC RIDGE BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS THU-FRI W/VERY COLD
TEMPS YET LOOKS TO SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER SIG OH VALLEY
CYCLONE NXT WEEKEND AS DEEP WRN TROUGH RELOADS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

PRIMARY AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIP EVENT AND PRECIP TYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING AT KFWA.

A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN INDIANA TO HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED INTO
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA INCLUDING KSBN. THIS WIND
SHIFT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING ALLOWING COLDER AND
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD. A VORT MAX ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL LIFT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ENHANCEMENT OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND SLOW WEST TO
EAST PROGRESSION OF BACK EDGE OF PRECIP. CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW
EXPECTED AT KFWA AROUND THE 01Z TIMEFRAME...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOME SLEET POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOW COULD FALL AT KFWA THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING
OF CHANGEOVER AND ORIENTATION OF POTENTIAL FRONTOGENESIS BANDS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATIONS AT KFWA ARE QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN HIGH INITIAL WET BULB TEMPS. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT
EAST OF KFWA AFTER 06Z. IFR/TEMPO LIFR CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
LOWER END MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY FOR
     INZ003>005-012-014.

MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW TONIGHT AS
COLDER AIR RETURNS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH COLD DRY WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...YET ANOTHER STORM
MAY BRING MORE SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 20Z AS WARM
ADVECTION HAS DRAWN MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

STARTING OFF A NEW MONTH WITH THE SAME OLD STORY...ANOTHER SHOT OF
WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS BACK INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BUT AT A SLOW PACE AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE MEAN UPPER FLOW. THE RESULT FROM THIS WILL
BE FOR NEAR SURFACE COOLING TO COMMENCE AT A FASTER PACE THAN THE
ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING OVER THE PRECIP SHIELD BEGINNING
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF A
MESSIER TRANSITION PERIOD OF 1-3 HOURS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL
SNOW. CURRENT HRRR EVEN HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING TO
SNOW OVER NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHICH MAY SERVE TO
TRANSFER TO SNOW MORE QUICKLY AND PRODUCE ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMS OF ICE AND SNOW. OTHER
THAN FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... EXPECT PRECIP FALLING AS ALL SNOW
OVER MOST AREAS AFTER 08-09Z. LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT.

HAVE CHOSEN TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR TONIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT
SNOW/ICE ACCUMS AND POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS WITH REFREEZING AS
TEMPS FALL. AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS JUST TOO HIGH TO
WARRANT ISSUING AN ADVISORY AS TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND EXTENT
OF TIME A CERTAIN PRECIP TYPE FALLS WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING
SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS. EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST AS NEEDED.

TEMPS...USED NAM HOURLIES FOR TEMPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
THEY FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POPS FOR SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY
WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SHIFT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SHIELD NORTH...WITH
SOME SUGGESTIONS THAT LIGHT SNOW MAY MANAGE TO GET NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT WILL WARRANT
LINGERING POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FROM EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY ON
WITH DEEPER FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ANY ADDITIONAL SHIFTS NORTH
HOWEVER WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE INTRODUCING LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ORGANIZES
OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF.

TEMPS...GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER MAVMOS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH MATCHED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMALS. COULD
SEE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT NORTH TO SOUTH FOR LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHERE
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND WOULD HELP TEMPS TUMBLE. CLOUD SHIELD FROM
SURFACE WAVE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP A
BIT FROM I-70 SOUTH...POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 20 IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

FOCUS REMAINS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

CONTINUE TO PREFER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH LESS RELIANCE ON
SOMEWHAT LESS CONSISTENT GFS. GFS LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST AND EURO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH EURO REMAINS
CONSISTENTLY THE COLDER MODEL AND GFS WARMER ODDLY ENOUGH. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN LOOSELY CLUSTERED BUT AROUND A FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TRACK THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT THIS HAS YET TO TRANSLATE
TO A COLDER SOLUTION IN THE LOW LEVELS.

AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL SNOW MAINLY NORTH/NORTHWEST OF
INDY...WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN A SWATH
SOUTH OF THIS...AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ALL PRECIP
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY LIKELY SNOW OR QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.

MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY AND AS SUCH AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. BANDING WILL BE AN ISSUE WHICH COULD IMPACT
BOTH AMOUNTS AND PRECIP TYPE OWING TO DYNAMIC EFFECTS.

MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME. CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET/ICE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/21Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

FLUCTUATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR
LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND DRAGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE SITES THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY START AROUND 22-00Z AT
LAF...02-03Z IND/HUF...AND AROUND 04-05Z AT BMG.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL COMPLETE IN THOSE FEW HOURS...AND CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE. SNOW WILL END NEAR DAYBREAK MOST SITES..

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/JH

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 339 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
HEAVY SNOW TO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR. AREAS...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A MONTICELLO...WARSAW...ANGOLA INDIAN TO
HILLSDALE MICHIGAN LINE WILL LIKELY SEE ALL THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION BY NEXT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

...MESSY AFTERNOON/EVENING ON TAP FOR THE AREA...

AS OF 230 PM...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A KANKAKEE...TO GOSHEN TO ANGOLA
LINE WERE SEEING ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
NEAR 40 (FAR SOUTHEAST). PRIOR TO MIXING/SWITCHOVER...NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAME IN ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR WHITE COUNTY...A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN
EXPECTED. RUC HAS BEEN HANDLING MANY OF THE FINER DETAILS QUITE WELL
AND WAS USED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY FOR THE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING.
THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT
ALSO SHOWING A FASTER TREND SO PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT CHANGE OVER TIMES
STILL LOOK REASONABLE. AS THE TRANSITION COMMENCES A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. ONCE THIS OCCURS...SEVERAL HOURS OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH ADDITIONAL QPF VALUES OF ROUGHLY ONE QUARTER
INCH OR SO IN FAR NW AREAS TO A BAND OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR
MORE IN SE HALF OR SO. MUCH OF THIS HEAVIER PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN...BUT MUCH LIKE FURTHER NW A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN
INCH WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW. JUST AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER
TODAY...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN TRANSITION TO WARRANT ANY
HEADLINE CHANGES. IT COULD BE CLOSE FOR FULL WARNING CRITERIA BEING
MET IN SOME AREAS...BUT WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR A COMBINATION OF
EARLIER SNOW AND EXPECTED SNOW BEHIND THE LOW SO SHOULD WORK OUT FOR
THE MOST PART. FURTHER UPDATES AND REFINEMENTS ARE LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ONCE TEMPS START TO FALL..ROAD CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MESSY AND VERY SLIPPERY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

ENERGETIC IMPULSE LADEN FLW EMBEDDED WITHIN PROJECTED NEG PNA PATTN
ACRS NOAM SPELLS HIGH IMPACT WX ACRS THE OH VALLEY THIS PD. OF NOTE
CONTS TO BE W/SYS SEEN THIS AFTN ON VAPOR OUT NR 42N/137W WHICH DIGS
SEWD INTO NRN BAHA ON MON AND THEN LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE LWR OH
VALLEY AS LARGER SCALE ARCTIC STREAM SW DROPS SWD INTO THE WRN US.

PRONOUNCED POLAR RIDGING BLDG IN WAKE OF SHRT TERM SYS PASSAGE TO
PROVIDE A BRIEF DRY BUT COLD RESPITE FROM WINTERS ONSLAUGHT. HWVR
DEEP SRN PLAINS EJECTION POINT AND STG GOMEX RTN FLW INTO SRN
PERIPHERY OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE LOOK TO PROVIDE FOR SIG CYCLONE
DVLPMNT OVR THE LWR MS VALLEY EARLY TUE AND UP THROUGH THE ERN OH
VALLEY ON WED AS EXEMPLIFIED IN STABLE SPECTRAL TRACK. DETAILS AS
YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT SIG IMPACTS XPCD BOTH W/WIND AND SNOW
PARTICULARLY TUE AFTN-WED AM.

OTRWS ARCTIC RIDGE BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS THU-FRI W/VERY COLD
TEMPS YET LOOKS TO SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER SIG OH VALLEY
CYCLONE NXT WEEKEND AS DEEP WRN TROUGH RELOADS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

ATTN THIS PD FOCUSED ON NEWD TRANSLATION OF UPSTREAM EMBEDDED JET
MAXIMA ALOFT OVR SWRN MO THIS AFTN. VIGOROUS LL WWA STILL IN
PROGRESS EWD OF EJECTING FLAT SFC WAVE OVR ERN IL AND YIELDING
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS IN MOD-HVY PCPN ACRS THE TERMINALS. WARM NOSE
HAD PUSHED WELL NORTH OF KFWA BUT HOLDING JUST SOUTH OF KSBN AND XPC
LTL CHG THROUGH MID AFTN. HWVR RAPID LL CAA XPCD TO DVLP IN WAKE OF
NEWD PROGRESSING SFC WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHG OVR BACK TO
SNOW THIS EVENING AT KFWA. IN FACT VIGOROUS MID LVL DEFORMATION
XPCD TO DVLP ALOFT THIS EVENING SWD OF EJECTING SPD MAX THROUGH THE
SRN LAKES AND LEAD TO SVRL HR PD OF MOD-HVY SNOW AT KFWA THIS EVENING
AND KSBN THIS AFTN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY FOR
     INZ003>005-012-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ006>008-013-
     015-016-020-022.

MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077>080.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ081.

OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...T


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 1237 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
HEAVY SNOW TO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR. AREAS...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A MONTICELLO...WARSAW...ANGOLA INDIAN TO
HILLSDALE MICHIGAN LINE WILL LIKELY SEE ALL THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION BY NEXT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING AND EXTEND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ADVISORY.

AS EXPECTED A MESSY SITUATION WAS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL
SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED ACROSS NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH INCH PER HOUR RATES. SOCIAL MEDIA AND SPOTTER REPORTS
ALREADY SHOWING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN BOTH THE PREVIOUS AND NOW
EXTENDED WARNING AREA AND MORE TO COME. RAP HAD A STELLAR HANDLE
ON THERMAL PROFILES WITH ALL RAIN NOW BEING REPORTED NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF FT WAYNE AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA. AT THE OFFICE WE ENCOUNTERED A PERIOD OF
SILVER DOLLAR SIZE FLAKES THAT QUICKLY ACCUMULATED A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW. REFLECTIVITY VALUES ON THE RADAR ARE CRAZY WITH SOME PUSHING
50 DBZ AS MELTING LAYER AND VERY WET SLEET/SNOWFLAKES BEING PICKED
UP. CHANGES WERE MADE IN SFC TEMPS AND QPF WITH SNOW NOW EXPECTED
MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KNOX TO ELKHART
TO COLDWATER AND A MIXTURE SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE AND NORTHWEST OF
A LOGANSPORT TO FORT WAYNE TO NAPOLEON LINE. SOUTHEAST OF THIS
FINAL LINE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN SE AREAS LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS ARE REPORTING ICING STILL OCCURRING DESPITE TEMPS OF 33
TO 36 DEGREES AS EXTREMELY COLD SURFACES WERE STRUGGLING TO
WARM...AS I HAD FEARED YESTERDAY. ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
18Z TO GIVE TIME FOR THE ICE TO MELT OFF AND WILL RECONSIDER
HEADLINES IN A FEW HOURS.

WHILE UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS DO DECREASE...RUC INDICATES A
REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP AS CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MOVES
EAST AND ALLOWS BETTER FLOW OF THETA E BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL
NEED TO WATCH CHANGE OVER LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING THAT COULD
CAUSE FURTHER ISSUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER NW ARKANSAS WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT INDICATED ON
THE 290K NAM ISENTROPIC SFC. HAVE BLENDED A NUMBER OF MODELS
YIELDING A SFC LOW TRACK FROM SOUTH OF LAF TO NEAR TOL. THERE WILL
BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM BUFKIT PROFILE AT AOH SHOWS THE WARM LAYER AT 5C...WHICH WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ALL THE SNOW IN THE LOWER LAYERS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER... THE LATEST NAM/06Z RUN KEEPS SBN ALL
SNOW WITH THE ENTIRE PROFILE BELOW 0C. A TIER OF COUNTIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IF THE PROFILE IS
NOT WARM ENOUGH TO MIX AT SBN. CONCERN FOR A FOOT OF SNOW THERE
WITH 295K ISENTROPIC SFC PUSHING 6 G/KG. THE GARCIA METHOD HAS
WORKED VERY WELL WITH THE PAST 2 BIG SNOW EVENTS HERE
RECENTLY...AND NOW SHOWS SNOW AMOUNT COULD BE NEAR A FOOT OVER FAR
SW LOWER MICH INTO NRN INDIANA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW EQUIV POT VORT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR MESOBANDING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MAX LIFT WITH SIGNIFICANT
FRONTOGENESIS BELOW THE EPV. IN THE SHORTER TERM...INCREASING SFC
PRESSURE FALLS OVER NE IL INDICATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS
INCREASING...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED ON KLOT AND KILX VAD WIND
PROFILES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MIXED...AND THEN CHANGE TO
JUST RAIN WERE SFC TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

QUIET/NIL SENSIBLE WX FOR SUN/MON AS SWRN CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE
SPILLS ALONG SEWD ACRS HIGH PLAINS AND INTO CNTL CONUS DY2...SRN
GRTLKS/MID MS VLY ON DY3. LARGE BREADTH OF DRY/COLD/SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS SUGGESTS SOME GAINS MADE WITH CONTD TREND OF SLIGHTLY COLDER
MIN TEMPS AND CERTAINLY A MORE RAPID EVENING PLUMMET.
LEAD UPSTREAM WAVE /SUBSEQUENT TO NEAR TERM CONSIDERATIONS/IN
VIGOROUS NRN STREAM REGIME TO DIG EWD THROUGH AZ/MM IN HIGHLY
POSITIVE TILT FASHION...WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS SEQUESTERED WELL SOUTH
ALONG SRN GULF SUN/MON. DECISIVELY/PERSISTENT SPECTRAL MODEL
CONSISTENCY WRT STRONG CNTL PAC VORTEX TO IMPINGE ON NRN CAL
COASTLINE BY F48...THEREAFTER PHASING WITH NRN BC AND POLEWARD
VORTICIES DYS3/4. OPTIMAL GOMEX FEED PRESENTS BY MIDDAY TUE WITH
WIDE BREADTH OF 1000-850 MB MIXING RATIOS GTE 4 G/KG FM SRN PLAINS
THROUGH OZARKS EWD THROUGH OHIO VLY TO MIDATL RGN. GIVEN INITIAL
HIGH 925MB CPDS OF 200-300 MB ACRS CWA DAYBREAK TUE HAVE SHIFTED
TIMING OF EVENT START/HIR POPS TO LATTER HALF OF DAY...CULMINATING
WITH BULK OF SNOW EVENT SET FOR OVERNIGHT PD FOLLOWED WITH SOME
TEMPORAL DETAIL OF PULLOUT WED. STORM TRACK CLUSTERING FM LA MIDDAY
TUE THROUGH TN VLY TO UPR OH VLY/SWRN PA BY 12 UTC WED. GFS COBB
GIVES INKLING OF SIG SNOW EVENT AND WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.
WHILE STRICTLY COBB TOTALS ATTM MIGHT SUGGEST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
OF EVENTUAL WARNING EVENT/GTE 8 INCHES/24 HRS WITH 4.5-5.5 DAY
EVENT...CERTAINLY I285-290K ISENT ASCENT/MOISTURE TAP/OPPOSITIONAL
PRE/POST SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW AND DEEP/WEAK STATIC STABILITY WITHIN
UVM PROFILES...ALL BELIES POTNLY SIG AMOUNTS AND BEGS CLOSE ATTN TO
SUBSEQUENT MODEL EVOLUTION. HINT OF GFS I290K TROWAL DEVELOPMENT
ALSO OF NOTE...ESPCLY SHOULD LATER HIR RES MODELS TARGET SIMILARLY.
IN WAKE OF SYSTEM...FAVOR COLDER/LOWER END GUIDANCE AS BROAD NRN
CONUS TROFFING TO AFFORD LONG LIVED ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SPILL FM NRN
HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN CONUS. HAVE QUELLED POPS LATE IN FCST PD WITH
DISCREPANCIES OF EVENTUAL SEWD KICK OF NRN INTMTN REGN STORM
SYSTEM...MORE LIKELY DY8 BYND GIVEN SYSTEM APPEARS CUTOFF INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

ATTN THIS PD FOCUSED ON NEWD TRANSLATION OF UPSTREAM EMBEDDED JET
MAXIMA ALOFT OVR SWRN MO THIS AFTN. VIGOROUS LL WWA STILL IN
PROGRESS EWD OF EJECTING FLAT SFC WAVE OVR ERN IL AND YIELDING
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS IN MOD-HVY PCPN ACRS THE TERMINALS. WARM NOSE
HAD PUSHED WELL NORTH OF KFWA BUT HOLDING JUST SOUTH OF KSBN AND XPC
LTL CHG THROUGH MID AFTN. HWVR RAPID LL CAA XPCD TO DVLP IN WAKE OF
NEWD PROGRESSING SFC WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHG OVR BACK TO
SNOW THIS EVENING AT KFWA. IN FACT VIGOROUS MID LVL DEFORMATION
XPCD TO DVLP ALOFT THIS EVENING SWD OF EJECTING SPD MAX THROUGH THE
SRN LAKES AND LEAD TO SVRL HR PD OF MOD-HVY SNOW AT KFWA THIS EVENING
AND KSBN THIS AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ006>009-013-015>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>005-012-014.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ081.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 401 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

At 12z Saturday an upper level trough was located over northern
British Columbia and a closed upper low was located off the coast
of the Pacific Northwest. East of this closed upper low...50 to 70
meter 12hr 500mb height rises were observed along the west coast
of Northern California and Oregon. Further east a 500mb trough
extended from the Northern Plains to southwest Utah/northwest
Arizona. A 700mb baroclinic zone/area of deformation was located
ahead of this upper level trough and stretched from northeast New
Mexico to southern Iowa. A 850mb ridge axis was located across
western Kansas. 850mb temperatures at 12z Saturday ranged from -6c
at Dodge City to -12c at Rapid City, SD and the winds were
northerly at 20 to 30kts. At the surface a stationary front at 12z
was located from central Texas to southeast Missouri.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

RAP, NAM, and GFS were all in good agreement in keeping the 700mb
baroclinic zone nearly stationary through midnight as the upper
level trough approaches western Kansas. Moisture and frontogenesis
will be improving along this baroclinic zone early tonight which
will give way to a chance/slight chance for some light snow across
portions of southwest Kansas. Will therefore mention a chance of
light snow overnight along this baroclinic zone as the upper level
trough crosses the central plains. Any snow accumulations
overnight will be light and average less than one inch.

Breaks of sunshine can be expected by Sunday afternoon as
subsidence and drier air air returns to western Kansas behind the
upper level through that will be moving across eastern Kansas.
Temperatures will still be unseasonably cool based 850mb
temperatures at 00z Monday. Using this as a guide the highs on
Sunday are expected to generally range from the upper 20s to lower
30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

A long wave trough will be generally situated across central and
western North America through February 8th. Individual shortwave
troughs will progress around the southern periphery of the
longwave trough, resulting in periodic bouts of winter weather
for western Kansas. Also, a strong surge of arctic air will slowly
invade the central and northern plains by mid to late next week,
resulting in bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills.

An open shortwave trough will approach from the southwest by
Monday night and Tuesday. Isentropic lift ahead of this feature
should result in widespread snow, with several inches of
accumulation likely. The location of the heaviest snow will surely
change with each model run, and is just not possible to nail down
this far out. However, given that the system is open and fairly
progressive, the best chance for heavier snow should be from Dodge
City eastward, with lesser potential in far western Kansas.
After a seasonal day Sunday with highs in the 30s and 40s, cold
advection and evaporational cooling will result in highs
in the 20s by Tuesday. Much colder air by Wednesday and Thursday
will result in highs in the single digits and teens, especially
since the large scale pattern will be conducive to low level
upslope flow and low clouds. Thus, diurnal ranges should be
fairly small, with lows not getting too out of control due to cloud
cover. After a break Wednesday, isentropic upglide will redevelop
by Wednesday night and persist into early Friday ahead of the next
upper level trough, resulting in areas of light accumulating snow
that will just add to what will already be on the ground. Temperatures
will remain cold through Friday and Saturday. Even after Saturday,
given the snow cover, temperatures will be very slow to moderate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

12z BUFR soundings and 14z HRRR indicating MVFR ceilings can be
expected this afternoon as 900mb to 850mb moisture improves across
western Kansas. These MVFR ceiling will give way to VFR conditions
after 03z as an area of high pressure at the surface builds into
the area from the north and the area of low level moisture moves
south/southwest into southeast Colorado and northern Oklahoma.
North to northeast winds will be at 10 to 15kts today and then
subside to 10kts or less after 00z Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC   9  30  14  38 /  10   0  10  10
GCK   7  29  14  40 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  12  31  17  44 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  11  31  16  42 /  20  10  10  10
HYS   5  28  12  35 /  10   0  10  10
P28  13  30  15  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 158 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

At 12z Saturday an upper level trough was located over northern
British Columbia and a closed upper low was located off the coast
of the Pacific Northwest. East of this closed upper low...50 to 70
meter 12hr 500mb height rises were observed along the west coast
of Northern California and Oregon. Further east a 500mb trough
extended from the Northern Plains to southwest Utah/northwest
Arizona. A 700mb baroclinic zone/area of deformation was located
ahead of this upper level trough and stretched from northeast New
Mexico to southern Iowa. A 850mb ridge axis was located across
western Kansas. 850mb temperatures at 12z Saturday ranged from -6c
at Dodge City to -12c at Rapid City, SD and the winds were
northerly at 20 to 30kts. At the surface a stationary front at 12z
was located from central Texas to southeast Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

RAP, NAM, and GFS were all in good agreement in keeping the 700mb
baroclinic zone nearly stationary through midnight as the upper
level trough approaches western Kansas. Moisture and frontogenesis
will be improving along this baroclinic zone early tonight which
will give way to a chance/slight chance for some light snow across
portions of southwest Kansas. Will therefore mention a chance of
light snow overnight along this baroclinic zone as the upper level
trough crosses the central plains. Any snow accumulations
overnight will be light and average less than one inch.

Breaks of sunshine can be expected by Sunday afternoon as
subsidence and drier air air returns to western Kansas behind the
upper level through that will be moving across eastern Kansas.
Temperatures will still be unseasonably cool based 850mb
temperatures at 00z Monday. Using this as a guide the highs on
Sunday are expected to generally range from the upper 20s to lower
30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

The Monday Night-Tuesday storm continues to be the main focus of the
forecast. The global models are coming into a bit better focus
tracking a mid-level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly from southern
California early Monday to far southwest New Mexico by late Monday
Night...and lifting northeast through West Texas and into western
Oklahoma by midday Tuesday. This is a favorable track for southwest
Kansas moderate-heavy precipitation.  The complicating factor will
be moisture return...as moisture will be poor across Texas. By early
Tuesday, Gulf of Mexico moisture will finally be taken in by the
mid-latitude cyclone and that is when moderate to heavy
precipitation rates will increase.  From a timing standpoint, the
southwest Kansas region will be on the southwest periphery of the
storm by the time adequate moisture becomes involved. Despite the
moisture deficiency for at least half of the event, we are still
looking at a solid 3 to 6 inch event across much of the forecast
area from late Monday Night into Tuesday Afternoon. Strong cold air
advection in the low levels will occur by midday Tuesday, and the
increased pressure rises and gradient will result in an increase in
north surface winds. Wind speeds of 18 to 22 knots sustained will
likely occur by afternoon, especially west of highway 183, and
blowing/drifting snow will likely become an issue. We added some
areas blowing snow in the grids for the afternoon portion of the
Tuesday period.

In other areas of the forecast, Sunday Night and Monday temperatures
were increased given the increase in southerly winds and low level
warm advection ahead of the approaching storm. In fact, Monday could
be quite mild especially across the far southwest region with some
highs in the mid 40s possible in the Elkhart and Liberal areas.
Following the storm, the ECMWF model is suggesting some bitterly
cold temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with 850mb temperatures in
the -17 to -21F range. The fresh arctic airmass and expected snow
cover will lead to limited modification of the airmass.  The latest
AllBlend guidance had highs in the mid teens for both Wednesday and
Thursday...and this may be too warm!  We went ahead and lowered
these a couple degrees, especially considering that the ECMWF model
is suggesting highs both days in the single digits along and north
of the Arkansas River. We should see at least one night with lows
below zero.  With snow cover, this could be setting up for the
coldest days/nights of the winter thus far.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

12z BUFR soundings and 14z HRRR indicating MVFR ceilings can be
expected this afternoon as 900mb to 850mb moisture improves across
western Kansas. These MVFR ceiling will give way to VFR conditions
after 03z as an area of high pressure at the surface builds into
the area from the north and the area of low level moisture moves
south/southwest into southeast Colorado and northern Oklahoma.
North to northeast winds will be at 10 to 15kts today and then
subside to 10kts or less after 00z Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC   9  30  14  36 /  10   0  10  10
GCK   7  29  14  38 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  12  31  17  42 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  11  31  16  40 /  20  10  10  10
HYS   5  28  12  33 /  10   0  10  10
P28  13  30  15  37 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 1143 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUD ENHANCEMENTS FROM UPPER
JET DYNAMICS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND LOOKING AT
TRENDS OF LOCAL RADAR VAD WIND PROFILERS ECHOS IN THE MID-LEVELS
WERE GRADUALLY WORKING DOWNWARD. THIS COULD GIVE WAY TO A SEEDER-
FEEDER PROCESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A TRACE TO A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

TODAY:
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING INTO
MISSOURI NOT LONG AFTER THIS ISSUANCE...AND ON THE WHOLE THAT LOOKS
TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT IS OCCURRING.  A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION
IS BEING OBSERVED AS OF THIS ISSUANCE...AND EXPECT THAT TO PERSIST.
ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIX.  THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR DEVELOP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT THIS IS THE ONLY
GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST THIS.  THUS...HAVE TAPERED POPS TO END ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING.  EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST AND TEMPERATURES TO
BE LIMITED IN UPWARD EXPANSE...HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S
EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

TONIGHT:
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL MAKE MINIMUMS
A BIT TRICKY. WILL SHADE LOWER IN THE NORTH WHERE FRESH SNOW AND
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. IF IT CLEAR AND SMOOTH EARLY...MAY NOT BE
COOL ENOUGH.

SUN-MON:
FAST MOVING SYSTEM ACROSS OK HAS TRENDED SOUTH FROM 24HRS
AGO...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG OK BORDER CONTINUE TO DECR.
HOWEVER STILL EXPECT MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM SHORTWAVE
DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SUN NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN HALF...SO EARLY LOW IS
POSSIBLE. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN EARNEST DURING THE DAY BUT
INFLUX OF CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER WARMUP. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

MODELS OVERALL STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN CHANGE
AND RESULTANT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START WITH FIRST SYSTEM ON MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TUE.
ACCUMULATING/ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW LOOKS PROBABLE AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING AS 1040+MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...OTHERWISE WOULD BE ADAMANT ABOUT DROPPING TEMPERATURES
EVEN MORE FROM THU MORNING-FRI MORNING. SOME TIME ON FRI...MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS...RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH MASSIVE/IMPRESSIVE 850MB RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO
BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THIS EVENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL
SNOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD FOR TODAY AND CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLOWLY FROM MVFR TO VFR CATEGORY BY DARK OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE. MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO GET A
LITTLE UPTICK FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PREVAIL ON SUNDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  12  30  11 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      30  10  30  11 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          29   9  29  10 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        29  11  29   9 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  14  30  12 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         30   3  29  10 /   0  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      30   5  30  11 /   0  10  10   0
SALINA          29   4  30   8 /  10  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       29   8  30  10 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  17  30  15 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         29  14  28   8 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            29  13  27   7 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    30  14  29  11 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 1109 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUD ENHANCEMENTS FROM UPPER
JET DYNAMICS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND LOOKING AT
TRENDS OF LOCAL RADAR VAD WIND PROFILERS ECHOS IN THE MID-LEVELS
WERE GRADUALLY WORKING DOWNWARD. THIS COULD GIVE WAY TO A SEEDER-
FEEDER PROCESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A TRACE TO A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

TODAY:
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING INTO
MISSOURI NOT LONG AFTER THIS ISSUANCE...AND ON THE WHOLE THAT LOOKS
TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT IS OCCURRING.  A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION
IS BEING OBSERVED AS OF THIS ISSUANCE...AND EXPECT THAT TO PERSIST.
ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIX.  THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR DEVELOP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT THIS IS THE ONLY
GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST THIS.  THUS...HAVE TAPERED POPS TO END ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING.  EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST AND TEMPERATURES TO
BE LIMITED IN UPWARD EXPANSE...HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S
EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

TONIGHT:
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL MAKE MINIMUMS
A BIT TRICKY. WILL SHADE LOWER IN THE NORTH WHERE FRESH SNOW AND
CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY. IF IT CLEAR AND SMOOTH EARLY...MAY NOT BE
COOL ENOUGH.

SUN-MON:
FAST MOVING SYSTEM ACROSS OK HAS TRENDED SOUTH FROM 24HRS
AGO...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG OK BORDER CONTINUE TO DECR.
HOWEVER STILL EXPECT MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM SHORTWAVE
DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SUN NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN HALF...SO EARLY LOW IS
POSSIBLE. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN EARNEST DURING THE DAY BUT
INFLUX OF CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER WARMUP. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

MODELS OVERALL STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN CHANGE
AND RESULTANT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START WITH FIRST SYSTEM ON MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TUE.
ACCUMULATING/ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW LOOKS PROBABLE AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING AS 1040+MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...OTHERWISE WOULD BE ADAMANT ABOUT DROPPING TEMPERATURES
EVEN MORE FROM THU MORNING-FRI MORNING. SOME TIME ON FRI...MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS...RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH MASSIVE/IMPRESSIVE 850MB RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO
BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THIS EVENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL
SNOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY
ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. SOME RESIDUAL FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD STILL
IMPACT KCNU THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THE FREEZING
PRECIP...LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. THE SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT WITH LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. BY TONIGHT...DRYER AIR WILL BE PUSHING IN AT THE LOW
LEVELS...AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR. TAFS ARE PESSIMISTIC WITH
CEILING HEIGHT...SO COULD SEE SOME AMENDMENTS IF CONDITIONS ARE
BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  12  30  11 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      30  10  30  11 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          29   9  29  10 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        29  11  29   9 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  14  30  12 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         30   3  29  10 /   0  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      30   5  30  11 /   0  10  10   0
SALINA          29   4  30   8 /  10  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       29   8  30  10 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  17  30  15 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         29  14  28   8 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            29  13  27   7 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    30  14  29  11 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ098>100.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

At 12z Saturday an upper level trough was located over northern
British Columbia and a closed upper low was located off the coast
of the Pacific Northwest. East of this closed upper low...50 to 70
meter 12hr 500mb height rises were observed along the west coast
of Northern California and Oregon. Further east a 500mb trough
extended from the Northern Plains to southwest Utah/northwest
Arizona. A 700mb baroclinic zone/area of deformation was located
ahead of this upper level trough and stretched from northeast New
Mexico to southern Iowa. A 850mb ridge axis was located across
western Kansas. 850mb temperatures at 12z Saturday ranged from -6c
at Dodge City to -12c at Rapid City, SD and the winds were
northerly at 20 to 30kts. At the surface a stationary front at 12z
was located from central Texas to southeast Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

Short range models indicate the upper level trough in the
Intermountain West digging further southeast into the Desert
Southwest today. Meanwhile, near the surface, a large area of
arctic high pressure will sink south-southeastward across the
Dakotas today, then further down into Kansas tonight bringing
colder and much drier air into the region. This will result in
fairly dry conditions across central and much of western Kansas
through Saturday night. However, there is an outside chance
extreme southwest Kansas may see a few flurries this evening
as an easterly upslope flow sets up across southeastern Colorado
and northeastern New Mexico. This will occur where a zone of
increased low level convergence will develop between the arctic
high approaching from the north and a surface low set up from
west Texas into southern New Mexico.

As for temperatures, the arctic high pressure moving southward
across the Dakotas into the Central Plains will help reinforce the
cold air mass already in place across the Western High Plains today.
As a result, similar high temperatures from yesterday are likely
again today with highs only up into the 20s(F) to possibly the lower
to mid 30s(F). The arctic high will center itself across much of
Kansas tonight lowering H85 temperatures even further as clouds
begin to scatter out somewhat from the northeast. Expect lows down
into the single digits(F) north near the I-70 corridor to possibly
the Teens(F) closer to the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

The Monday Night-Tuesday storm continues to be the main focus of the
forecast. The global models are coming into a bit better focus
tracking a mid-level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly from southern
California early Monday to far southwest New Mexico by late Monday
Night...and lifting northeast through West Texas and into western
Oklahoma by midday Tuesday. This is a favorable track for southwest
Kansas moderate-heavy precipitation.  The complicating factor will
be moisture return...as moisture will be poor across Texas. By early
Tuesday, Gulf of Mexico moisture will finally be taken in by the
mid-latitude cyclone and that is when moderate to heavy
precipitation rates will increase.  From a timing standpoint, the
southwest Kansas region will be on the southwest periphery of the
storm by the time adequate moisture becomes involved. Despite the
moisture deficiency for at least half of the event, we are still
looking at a solid 3 to 6 inch event across much of the forecast
area from late Monday Night into Tuesday Afternoon. Strong cold air
advection in the low levels will occur by midday Tuesday, and the
increased pressure rises and gradient will result in an increase in
north surface winds. Wind speeds of 18 to 22 knots sustained will
likely occur by afternoon, especially west of highway 183, and
blowing/drifting snow will likely become an issue. We added some
areas blowing snow in the grids for the afternoon portion of the
Tuesday period.

In other areas of the forecast, Sunday Night and Monday temperatures
were increased given the increase in southerly winds and low level
warm advection ahead of the approaching storm. In fact, Monday could
be quite mild especially across the far southwest region with some
highs in the mid 40s possible in the Elkhart and Liberal areas.
Following the storm, the ECMWF model is suggesting some bitterly
cold temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with 850mb temperatures in
the -17 to -21F range. The fresh arctic airmass and expected snow
cover will lead to limited modification of the airmass.  The latest
AllBlend guidance had highs in the mid teens for both Wednesday and
Thursday...and this may be too warm!  We went ahead and lowered
these a couple degrees, especially considering that the ECMWF model
is suggesting highs both days in the single digits along and north
of the Arkansas River. We should see at least one night with lows
below zero.  With snow cover, this could be setting up for the
coldest days/nights of the winter thus far.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

12z BUFR soundings and 14z HRRR indicating MVFR ceilings can be
expected this afternoon as 900mb to 850mb moisture improves across
western Kansas. These MVFR ceiling will give way to VFR conditions
after 03z as an area of high pressure at the surface builds into
the area from the north and the area of low level moisture moves
south/southwest into southeast Colorado and northern Oklahoma.
North to northeast winds will be at 10 to 15kts today and then
subside to 10kts or less after 00z Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  10  29  14 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  30   9  29  14 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  31  12  29  17 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  31  12  31  16 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  28   5  27  12 /   0  10   0  10
P28  31  12  30  15 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 401 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE AREA...THEN MOVE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO SIG CHGS FROM RECENT PREV FCST UPDATES. HRRR FCST REF SHOWS
STEADY SN OVRSPRDNG WRN PTNS OF THE FA ERLY THIS EVE AND NE AND E
CNTRL PTNS BY LATE EVE. INITIALLY  HRLY TEMPS WILL FALL THIS EVE
WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STEADY SN
CANOPY...THEN SLOWLY RISE OVRNGT WITH INCREASING LLVL WARM ADVCN
WITH SRLY GRAD WINDS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG TO
RN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUN.

STEADY PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN TO RN AND SN SHWRS FROM W TO E ACROSS
THE FA AFT MID SUN MORN...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMULATION ACROSS
MSLY FAR NRN AREAS 1 TO 2 INCHES PRIOR TO LATE SUN MORN...AND
LITTLE OR NONE FURTHER S. HI TEMPS SUN AFTN WILL AGAIN BE SIG ABV
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY EVENING WITH
SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND
DOMINATES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE LONG TERM, ATTENTION TURNS TO A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES NORTH AND EAST TO NEAR
PENNSYLVANIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT IS THEN
EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECONDARY LOW TRACKING FROM NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THIS GENERAL TRACK WILL
KEEP THE AREA ON THE COLD, SNOWY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HOWEVER
AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL
POPS DOWNEAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH WHAT MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING AND TAPERED POPS TO NEAR 50% ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE WHICH LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM`S SNOW SHIELD. THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIR AND
SEASONALLY COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO IFR LATER THIS EVE AS
STEADY SN OVRSPRDS ALL TAF SITES...WITH PERHAPS KBHB HOLDING ON TO
MVFR OVRNGT DUE TO LESS PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPE MSLY RN. FURTHER N...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY SUN WITH KBGR
IMPROVING TO VFR LATER SUN AFTN.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH SUNDAY
EVENING WITH ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR BY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THIS
WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW BY
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH, WITH A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE SCA FOR LATER THIS EVE THRU MOST OF
SUN AS PREVIOUSLY PLANNED. USED A BLEND OF MODEL OPNL AND MOS
WINDS FOR FCST WINDS AND A BLEND OF WW3/SWAN NAM/SWAN GFS FOR WV
HTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR A TIME LATER SUNDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. THESE WINDS WILL
EASE THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
COASTAL LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING INCREASING
WINDS AND WAVES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK. &&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 349 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SNOW TO THE RIDGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGE HAS OUR AREA BLANKETED IN CLOUD COVER AS
A WARM FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. RADAR STILL IS MORE BARK
THAN BITE...AS MUCH OF THE ECHOES VISIBLE ARE VIRGA AS DRY AIR
REMAINS LOCKED IN FROM SFC TO ABOUT 900MB...EVIDENT FROM THE 12Z
SOUNDING AND THE NEARLY 15 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREAD ON CURRENT OBS.
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS...AM EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO STIFFEN FROM THE SOUTH AND CLEAR AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR
SOUTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW...COMBINED WITH SOME
SUN SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

NO BIG CHANGES IN TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...AT LEAST WITH
THIS ROUND OF UPDATES. MODELS REMAIN LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING AND NOW THAT THE HRRR HAS SOMETHING TO LATCH ONTO...IT
TELLS A SIMILAR STORY IN TIMING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY UNDER DECENT CAA. ALL SIGNS POINT TO MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ERODING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM HOLDS
BACK ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT A FEW HOURS OF RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW COULD
OCCUR AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THOUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT WILL STALL
OUT OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SERVE AS THE
TRACK FOR A SW TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT THE MODELS
HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING TO THIS POINT. GUIDANCE ON
PREVIOUS DAYS HAD THE COLD FRONT PUSHING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WITH AMPLE HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN BEHIND IT. THIS HAD HELPED TO
PUSH A POTENTIALLY POTENT WINTER STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS
HAVE WAFFLED ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE TRACK OF THE SW.

NOW THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE CONVERGENCE ON A SOLN THAT KEEPS
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS FRONT IN OUR SE RIDGES WHICH
WILL SERVE TO FUEL THE SYSTEM THAT HAS THE 500MB VORT MAX PASSING
THROUGH WV. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES IT WILL BE AIDED ALOFT BY
STRONG DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING OF THE 300MB JET
STREAKS. SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED
NEAR OUR SE CWA LINE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS PROGGED FOR LWX AND
RLX. WILL CARRY A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW TOTALS IN THIS UPDATE AND CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT TO OUR
AREA STILL A LITTLE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSFER FROM THE RIVER VALLEY LOW TO AN OFFSHORE LOW...WHEN THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS WILL BE KEY TO THE LOCAL IMPACTS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WOULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO START AS RAIN
IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LIKELY TURN OVER TO SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS
AS WELL. 00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW HUGE DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE REGION...SO THIS IS STILL A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SHOW WILDLY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AFTER
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE GONE
WITH FORECASTS WHERE TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHICH
WILL PROBABLY STILL FEEL WARM AFTER THE TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
THIS PAST WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND KDUJ THIS AFTERNOON AS AREA
IS WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW IN SRN IL. AS
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THIS EVENING COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHEAST
WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW THEN CHANGING TO SNOW NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST FROM PRE-DAWN TO EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING QUICKLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT IN RAIN AND MIX PRECIP. AS
FRONT BEGINS TO SLOW SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE MOVING ALONG
FRONT EXPECT KMGW TO BE THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. IFR
CIGS THROUGH SUNDAY. WENT WITH IFR VSBY IN SNOW AS WELL BUT EXACT
TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND LOWER VSBY IS IN DOUBT. WINDS SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MOSTLY
UNDER 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK..../SUNDAY NIGHT THURSDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AT KMGW AS
WAVE MOVING ALONG COLD FRONT SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE MASON DIXON
LINE.

GENERAL VFR TUESDAY...THEN RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND OR SNOW. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 1245 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RESULTS IN RAIN OVERNIGHT CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGE HAS OUR AREA BLANKETED IN CLOUD COVER AS
A WARM FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. RADAR STILL IS MORE BARK
THAN BITE...AS MUCH OF THE ECHOES VISIBLE ARE VIRGA AS DRY AIR
REMAINS LOCKED IN FROM SFC TO ABOUT 900MB...EVIDENT FROM THE 12Z
SOUNDING AND THE NEARLY 15 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREAD ON CURRENT OBS.
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS...AM EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO STIFFEN FROM THE SOUTH AND CLEAR AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR
SOUTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW...COMBINED WITH SOME
SUN SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

NO BIG CHANGES IN TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...AT LEAST WITH
THIS ROUND OF UPDATES. MODELS REMAIN LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING AND NOW THAT THE HRRR HAS SOMETHING TO LATCH ONTO...IT
TELLS A SIMILAR STORY IN TIMING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY UNDER DECENT CAA. ALL SIGNS POINT TO MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ERODING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM HOLDS
BACK ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT A FEW HOURS OF RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW COULD
OCCUR AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW UNTIL THE FRONT IS WELL THROUGH AND
WITH MOISTURE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.

A SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP OUTSIDE OF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGES. EVEN THEN...SNOW WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH ONLY UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE BY NOON ON MONDAY. THAT BEING SAID...IF MODELS
TREND ANY FARTHER NORTH AT ALL THERE WOULD BE MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND WOULD PUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA UNDER THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...AND WOULD LIKELY NEED
TO INCREASE COVERAGE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR NOW OPTED TO JUST
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP AND LOW QPF AMOUNTS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSFER FROM THE RIVER VALLEY LOW TO AN OFFSHORE LOW...WHEN THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS WILL BE KEY TO THE LOCAL IMPACTS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WOULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO START AS RAIN
IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LIKELY TURN OVER TO SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS
AS WELL. 00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW HUGE DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE REGION...SO THIS IS STILL A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SHOW WILDLY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AFTER
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE GONE
WITH FORECASTS WHERE TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHICH
WILL PROBABLY STILL FEEL WARM AFTER THE TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
THIS PAST WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND KDUJ THIS AFTERNOON AS AREA
IS WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW IN SRN IL. AS
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THIS EVENING COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHEAST
WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW THEN CHANGING TO SNOW NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST FROM PRE-DAWN TO EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING QUICKLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT IN RAIN AND MIX PRECIP. AS
FRONT BEGINS TO SLOW SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE MOVING ALONG
FRONT EXPECT KMGW TO BE THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. IFR
CIGS THROUGH SUNDAY. WENT WITH IFR VSBY IN SNOW AS WELL BUT EXACT
TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND LOWER VSBY IS IN DOUBT. WINDS SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MOSTLY
UNDER 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK..../SUNDAY NIGHT THURSDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AT KMGW AS
WAVE MOVING ALONG COLD FRONT SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE MASON DIXON
LINE.

GENERAL VFR TUESDAY...THEN RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND OR SNOW. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1225 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

A SNOWY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES
EXPECTED SOUTH OF A GRAND HAVEN TO ALMA LINE. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING WON`T BE AN ISSUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY GENERATE
ACCUMULATING SNOW MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

THERE IS ALREADY A VERY DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER PRECIP SHOWING UP IN RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE BACKED DOWN ON STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS... FEATURING 4-6 ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR... 3-5
ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR... AND 2 TO 4 NORTH OF THERE. EVEN THIS
MAY BE A BIT AMBITIOUS.

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY ALREADY ACROSS NRN IL AND
SRN WI SO LOOK FOR LIGHTER MORE INTERMITTENT SNOWS AFTER THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW EXITS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING MAY STILL LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
BANDS OF BETTER INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT THE GENERAL
OVERALL TREND UPSTREAM ON RADAR/SATELLITE/SFC OBS IS NOT REALLY
ENCOURAGING FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW.

LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON EVEN
AROUND JXN SO WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF SLEET IN THE FAR SE CWFA.

ALSO WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT NEARLY THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF WATER
EQUIVALENT THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING ALTHOUGH UP TO 0.50 TOTAL
STILL POSSIBLE FROM BTL TO JXN. THAT IS GOOD NEWS AS FAR AS
LOWERING THE AMOUNT ADDITIONAL SNOW LOAD ON ALREADY BURDENED FLAT
ROOFS FROM THE NUMEROUS PREVIOUS EVENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE UNFOLDING SNOW EVENT.

KGRR BEGAN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...A BROADER RADAR DEPICTION REVEALED THAT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS ACTUALLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. I
WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW TO INTENSIFY BY 12Z. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
STRONG LIFT COINCIDING WITH THE DGZ FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. MIXING RATIOS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE 3-4 G/KG WHICH SHOULD
MAKE THIS SNOW A FAIRLY WET AND HEAVY ONE. TWEAKED QPF AND SNOW
RATIOS BUT STILL CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 5-7 INCH SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CWA FROM ALLEGAN TO ALMA. LOWER SNOW RATIOS
OVER THE SRN CWA SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS A BIT.

BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
VERY LIMITED...MORE OF A CHANCE OF SLEET AND SO GRIDS REFLECT THAT.
SNOW ACCUMS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NRN CWA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.

OVERALL...THIS STILL LOOKS TO ME LIKE A HIGH END ADVISORY. THIS
WON/T BE LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN WE SAW 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW AND 40-50 MPH
WINDS. TODAY/S EVENT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH WIND WITH IT AND THUS
IMPACTS WILL BE MUCH LESS.

COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE LOW LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WE/LL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOP BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH AS FETCH DECREASES DUE TO ICE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THE
LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE SNOW TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOW
WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT STORM BUT IT WILL BE MORE
WOUND UP AND SHOULD HAVE A LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH AS THERE IS VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z EURO
AND GFS. WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH.

THE LOW PULLS AWAY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ONCE AGAIN THE DGZ
IS CRASHING TOWARDS THE GROUND AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BELOW 5 KFT AGL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR/MVFR AT KGRR... KAZO AND
KMKG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED TO LIFR
AT OUR SE TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
POTENTIALLY IMPROVING TO VFR TOWARD MIDDAY SUNDAY/SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH 18Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

MOST OF THE NEARSHORE IS ICE COVERED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

WE WILL BE ADDING BETWEEN 0.25-0.50" ONTO THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN
AND 0.50-0.75" ONTO THE GRAND AND ST. JOSEPH RIVER BASINS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME OF THIS QPF ACCOUNTS
FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MAINLY NEAR THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND BY
JACKSON. WE`LL NEED TO MONITOR THE JACKSON GAGE FOR SOME SMALL
RISES...BUT NOTHING MAJOR AT THIS POINT. ELSEWHERE...THIS SNOW WILL
FALL ONTO EXISTING ICE AND SNOW COVERED RIVERS...FURTHER THICKENING
THE COVER THAT IS IN PLACE. THE SNOWPACK AND ICEPACK WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO NEXT WEEK.

STABLE ICE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
COLD WEATHER. THE ICE JAM THREAT IS LOW AND THERE IS NO CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF ANY ICE JAMS ON THE RIVER NETWORK. DUE TO THE EXTREME
COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...RIVER GAGES ARE
FREEZING UP ACROSS THE AREA.  WHEN RIVER GAGES FREEZE UP...THE
READINGS GO FLAT LINED AND NO LONGER REFLECT THE TRUE RIVER LEVELS.
RIVER GAGES THAT HAVE CURRENTLY FLAT LINED ARE THE WHITE RIVER AT
WHITEHALL... BATTLE CREEK AT BATTLE CREEK...THORNAPPLE RIVER NEAR
CALEDONIA...ROGUE RIVER NEAR ROCKFORD... AND THE RED CEDAR RIVER
NEAR WILLIAMSTON.  FOR RIVER GAGES NOT FROZEN...RIVERS LEVELS ARE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA.

AT SOME STATIONS... THE SYSTEMS USED TO SENSE WATER STAGE ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ERRONEOUS READINGS DURING PERIODS OF EXTREME COLD
TEMPERATURES.  STAGE HYDROGRAPHS DURING SUCH TIMES SHOW RAPID
FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS AND SUBSEQUENT RAPID RETURN TO PREVIOUS
LEVELS WHEN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...MEADE










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1116 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

A SNOWY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES
EXPECTED SOUTH OF A GRAND HAVEN TO ALMA LINE. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING WON`T BE AN ISSUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY GENERATE
ACCUMULATING SNOW MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

THERE IS ALREADY A VERY DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER PRECIP SHOWING UP IN RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE BACKED DOWN ON STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS... FEATURING 4-6 ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR... 3-5
ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR... AND 2 TO 4 NORTH OF THERE. EVEN THIS
MAY BE A BIT AMBITIOUS.

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY ALREADY ACROSS NRN IL AND
SRN WI SO LOOK FOR LIGHTER MORE INTERMITTENT SNOWS AFTER THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW EXITS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING MAY STILL LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
BANDS OF BETTER INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT THE GENERAL
OVERALL TREND UPSTREAM ON RADAR/SATELLITE/SFC OBS IS NOT REALLY
ENCOURAGING FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW.

LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON EVEN
AROUND JXN SO WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF SLEET IN THE FAR SE CWFA.

ALSO WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT NEARLY THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF WATER
EQUIVALENT THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING ALTHOUGH UP TO 0.50 TOTAL
STILL POSSIBLE FROM BTL TO JXN. THAT IS GOOD NEWS AS FAR AS
LOWERING THE AMOUNT ADDITIONAL SNOW LOAD ON ALREADY BURDENED FLAT
ROOFS FROM THE NUMEROUS PREVIOUS EVENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE UNFOLDING SNOW EVENT.

KGRR BEGAN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...A BROADER RADAR DEPICTION REVEALED THAT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS ACTUALLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. I
WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW TO INTENSIFY BY 12Z. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
STRONG LIFT COINCIDING WITH THE DGZ FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. MIXING RATIOS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE 3-4 G/KG WHICH SHOULD
MAKE THIS SNOW A FAIRLY WET AND HEAVY ONE. TWEAKED QPF AND SNOW
RATIOS BUT STILL CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 5-7 INCH SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CWA FROM ALLEGAN TO ALMA. LOWER SNOW RATIOS
OVER THE SRN CWA SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS A BIT.

BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
VERY LIMITED...MORE OF A CHANCE OF SLEET AND SO GRIDS REFLECT THAT.
SNOW ACCUMS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NRN CWA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.

OVERALL...THIS STILL LOOKS TO ME LIKE A HIGH END ADVISORY. THIS
WON/T BE LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN WE SAW 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW AND 40-50 MPH
WINDS. TODAY/S EVENT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH WIND WITH IT AND THUS
IMPACTS WILL BE MUCH LESS.

COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE LOW LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WE/LL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOP BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH AS FETCH DECREASES DUE TO ICE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THE
LAKE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE SNOW TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOW
WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT STORM BUT IT WILL BE MORE
WOUND UP AND SHOULD HAVE A LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH AS THERE IS VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z EURO
AND GFS. WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH.

THE LOW PULLS AWAY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ONCE AGAIN THE DGZ
IS CRASHING TOWARDS THE GROUND AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BELOW 5 KFT AGL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

SNOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND SOME LIFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE WORST OF IT SHOULD BE AROUND 20Z TO 24Z. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE EVENING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR.

WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST TODAY AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
BUT AOB 10 KNOTS MOST OF THE TIME.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

MOST OF THE NEARSHORE IS ICE COVERED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

WE WILL BE ADDING BETWEEN 0.25-0.50" ONTO THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN
AND 0.50-0.75" ONTO THE GRAND AND ST. JOSEPH RIVER BASINS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME OF THIS QPF ACCOUNTS
FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MAINLY NEAR THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND BY
JACKSON. WE`LL NEED TO MONITOR THE JACKSON GAGE FOR SOME SMALL
RISES...BUT NOTHING MAJOR AT THIS POINT. ELSEWHERE...THIS SNOW WILL
FALL ONTO EXISTING ICE AND SNOW COVERED RIVERS...FURTHER THICKENING
THE COVER THAT IS IN PLACE. THE SNOWPACK AND ICEPACK WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO NEXT WEEK.

STABLE ICE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
COLD WEATHER. THE ICE JAM THREAT IS LOW AND THERE IS NO CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF ANY ICE JAMS ON THE RIVER NETWORK. DUE TO THE EXTREME
COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...RIVER GAGES ARE
FREEZING UP ACROSS THE AREA.  WHEN RIVER GAGES FREEZE UP...THE
READINGS GO FLAT LINED AND NO LONGER REFLECT THE TRUE RIVER LEVELS.
RIVER GAGES THAT HAVE CURRENTLY FLAT LINED ARE THE WHITE RIVER AT
WHITEHALL... BATTLE CREEK AT BATTLE CREEK...THORNAPPLE RIVER NEAR
CALEDONIA...ROGUE RIVER NEAR ROCKFORD... AND THE RED CEDAR RIVER
NEAR WILLIAMSTON.  FOR RIVER GAGES NOT FROZEN...RIVERS LEVELS ARE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA.

AT SOME STATIONS... THE SYSTEMS USED TO SENSE WATER STAGE ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ERRONEOUS READINGS DURING PERIODS OF EXTREME COLD
TEMPERATURES.  STAGE HYDROGRAPHS DURING SUCH TIMES SHOW RAPID
FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS AND SUBSEQUENT RAPID RETURN TO PREVIOUS
LEVELS WHEN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...MEADE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 307 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ALONG WITH MILD MID-WINTER TEMPERATURES.
A RETURN OF SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 307 PM EST SATURDAY...LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE INCLUDING 18Z
RAP PROGS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINTER PCPN EVENT AFFECTING OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE SLV. FAIRLY ROBUST WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF 50-60KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 JET
ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST LOWER TO MID LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ON THE ORDER OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE SLV/NRN DACKS AND NRN GREENS.
LESSER AMTS ELSEWHERE (0.25 OR LESS)CHAMPLAIN/CT RVR VALLEYS AND
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VT WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED TO A CONSIDERABLE
DEGREE BY DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. PCPN MAY ALSO MIX WITH PERIODS OF
SLEET OR EVEN RAIN AT TIMES...NAMELY AT PCPN ONSET THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN NEAR-SFC TEMPS ARE THE MILDEST...AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WHEN MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE REACHES MOST NORTHWARD EXENT.
NONETHELESS...FEEL WITH SUCH DRY TD VALUES WET BULB PROCESSES WILL
TEND TO DOMINATE OVER TIME AND MOST OF THE PCPN...ESP IN THE ADVSY
AREA WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. LOOKING AT AMOUNTS GENERALLY
IN THE 2-5/3-6 INCH RANGE IN THESE AREAS BY MORNING WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS TO PERHAPS 7/8 INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER ELEV SPOTS.
ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
LOWEST AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHERN VT WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
BEST WAA/DYNAMICS/MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY AFOREMENTIONED SHADOWING
EFFECTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LOCAL MINIMUM IN THE IMMEDIATE
KPBG/KBTV VCNTY...ESP AFTER INITIAL WARM ADVECTION PCPN BURST THIS
EVENING WHEN CORE OF SOUTHWESTERLY 850 JET MOVES INTO THE AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER
CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EST SATURDAY...BY TOMORROW MORNING...SFC LOW WILL BE
QUICKLY EXITING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH ANY
LINGERING LIGHT SNOWS AND/OR MIXED PCPN GENERALLY ENDING BY NOON.
ANY BACK END ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SYSTEM`S SFC COLD
FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA...AND
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WINDS WILL TREND WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
DAYS END. WITH SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS...A NEAR NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS
EXPECTED AS DAYTIME MAXES TOP OUT IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE FOR
MOST SPOTS.

THEREAFTER SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AND SEASONABLE AS BROAD SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIDGED ALOFT BY WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW. THUS PRIOR IDEA OF CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 ABOVE...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY 23 TO 30. DID
OPT TO TREND ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ON MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN CENTER OF 1030+ MB SFC HIGH BUILDS DIRECTLY ATOP
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST READINGS BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE WITH
LOCALIZED COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EST SATURDAY...THE LONG TERM FCST FOCUS IS WEDS INTO
THURS TIME PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. THE
LATEST 12Z NWP GUIDANCE AND BOTH 00Z AND 12Z ENSEMBLE DATA IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEM. THE LATEST TRENDS DO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH PLACES OUR CWA WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE COLD SECTOR
ALONG WITH LESS QPF/SNOWFALL.

LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SETUP SHOWS DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS
THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST WITH POTENT 5H VORT EJECTING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z TUES. THIS WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC
LOW PRES ACRS THE MS VALLEY...WHILE A FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT
CONTS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. SFC LOW PRES WL TRACK TWD THE OHIO
VALLEY BY 06Z WEDS...THEN NEAR PITTSBURGH PA BY 12Z WEDS AND NYC
BY WEDS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND A FAVORABLE DUAL JET STRUCTURE. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL PWS BTWN 0.75" AND 1.25" ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND NO CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATIONS WL PREVENT STORM FROM BEING A BLOCKBUSTER AND MORE OF
A MODERATE PREICP/SNOWFALL EVENT FOR WEDS INTO THURS. THE SHARP
THERMAL PACKING ACRS OUR CWA...INDICATES STRONG LOW TO MID LVL FGEN/WAA
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 40 TO 50 KNOT 85H JET AND RRQ OF
25H JET ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA. RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER
LIFT/MOISTURE...WITH GREATEST IMPACTS ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. VERY
EARLY INDICATIONS SUPPORT QPF RANGING FROM 0.25 INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TO 0.75" RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES...RESULTING IN ADVISORY
TYPE EVENT NEAR THE BORDER AND WARNINGS ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
ZNS. ANY SHIFT FURTHER NORTH OR SOUTH WOULD GREATLY IMPACT THE
AMOUNT OF QPF/SNOWFALL EXPECTED AND LLVL THERMAL PROFILES. WL CONT
TO MENTION CAT POPS FOR WEDS WITH THERMAL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING ALL
SNOW FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. SNOW WL TAPER OFF WEDS NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...BUT DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
OUR REGION. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS...EXCEPT BLW
NORMAL READINGS ON THURS/FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT OUR REGION NEXT
WEEKEND AS ACTIVE STORM PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH POTENTIAL SYSTEMS
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...AVIATION FOCUS WL BE TIMING OF SNOW THIS
AFTN/EVENING AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SNOW WITH BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW QUICKLY MOVING FROM SW TO
NE TWD CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN. LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP IS
FALLING AS VIRGA IS LLVLS ARE VERY DRY WITH SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ACRS OUR REGION. USING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL
TOOL AND LATEST RAP 13 DATA...THINKING SNOW DEVELOPS AT MSS/SLK BTWN
18Z-19Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS BY 20Z. FOR PBG/BTV THINKING SNOW
DEVELOPS BY 21Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR VIS BTWN 1-2SM DEVELOPING
BY 22Z TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH VIS
<1/2SM AND CIGS AROUND 1000 FEET FOR SLK/MSS BTWN 22Z-03Z THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV BY 23Z AND
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT RUT AS BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS
NORTH OF THIS TAF SITE. THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIP WL EXIT
OUR TAF SITES BY 06Z WITH EXCEPTION OF SLK/MSS...WHICH WL CONT TO
SEE PERIODS OF -SN WITH IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THINKING BL
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AT PBG/BTV FOR A MIXTURE OF -RASN BY 06Z WITH
VIS BTWN 3-5SM...ESPECIALLY AS BETTER LIFTS SHIFTS NORTH OF
REGION. A DEVELOPING SW JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS BTWN 2500 AND 3500
FT AGL WL PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS...WITH SOME SFC WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOME LLVL WS
WL BE POSSIBLE AT MSS WITH NE SFC FLW OF 10 KNTS...WHILE FLW ALOFT
IS FROM THE SW.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRNT SWEEPS ACRS OUR
CWA BTWN 15Z-21Z SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP
POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FROM 00Z MONDAY THRU
06Z WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WL
IMPACT OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z WEDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ002>004-
     006-007-016.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-
     034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 305 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MIDWEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1203 PM EST SATURDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO UPGRADE SOUTHWEST
ST LAWRENCE COUNTY IN THE EXISTING WINTER WX ADVSY THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE INCLUDING THE 15Z RAP
ANALYSIS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINTER PCPN EVENT AFFECTING OUR AREA LATER TODAY TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE SLV. FAIRLY ROBUST WARM THERMAL
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF 50-60KT 850 JET ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
PCPN ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE
SLV/NRN DACKS AND NRN GREENS. LESSER AMTS ELSEWHERE (0.25 OR LESS)
CHAMPLAIN/CT RVR VALLEYS AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VT WHICH WILL
BE AFFECTED TO A CONSIDERABLE DEGREE BY DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. PCPN
MAY ALSO MIX WITH PERIODS OF SLEET OR EVEN RAIN AT TIMES...NAMELY
AT PCPN ONSET WHEN NEAR-SFC TEMPS ARE THE MILDEST...AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WHEN MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE REACHES MOST NORTHWARD EXENT.
NONETHELESS...FEEL WITH SUCH DRY TD VALUES WET BULB PROCESSES WILL
TEND TO DOMINATE AND MOST OF THE PCPN...ESP IN THE ADVSY AREA WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. LOOKING AT AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE
2-5/3-6 INCH RANGE IN THE ADVSY AREA BY MORNING WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS TO PERHAPS 7/8 INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER ELEV SPOTS.
ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
LOWEST AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHERN VT WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
BEST WAA/DYNAMICS. AFOREMENTIONED SHADOWING EFFECTS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE A LOCAL MINIMUM IN THE IMMEDIATE KPBG/KBTV VCNTY...ESP
AFTER INITIAL WARM ADVECTION PCPN BURST WHEN CORE OF SOUTHWESTERLY
850 JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
30S...THEN MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SATURDAY...GOING INTO SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES PUSH THRU THE AREA WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIP GOING OVER
TO ALL -SW AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO AREA. EXPECTING
EARLY HIGHS FOR THE CWA AS TEMPS SLOWLY DROP THRU THE MORNING HRS.
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE ADVISORY IS UP
WITH LESSER AMTS SOUTH. BY SUNDAY AFTNOON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
CLRD THE CWA...LEAVING AREA UNDER WNW FLOW. EXPECTING SOME
LINGERING -SW DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS W/ ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ACCUM...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN. GOING INTO SUN EVENING/NGT...
PRECIP WILL HAVE TAPERED OFF AND GIVE WAY TO STRONG SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION. GENERAL CLRING TREND WILL
ENSUE AND CONTINUE THRU THE MONDAY TIME FRAME PROVIDING AREA A NICE
DAY. OVERALL FOR TEMPS...NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S MONDAY
AND LOWS IN THE TEEN TO SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER CLRING SKIES SUN
NGT. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S EAST AND 20S WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EST SATURDAY...THE LONG TERM FCST FOCUS IS WEDS INTO
THURS TIME PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. THE
LATEST 12Z NWP GUIDANCE AND BOTH 00Z AND 12Z ENSEMBLE DATA IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEM. THE LATEST TRENDS DO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH PLACES OUR CWA WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE COLD SECTOR
ALONG WITH LESS QPF/SNOWFALL.

LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SETUP SHOWS DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS
THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST WITH POTENT 5H VORT EJECTING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z TUES. THIS WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC
LOW PRES ACRS THE MS VALLEY...WHILE A FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT
CONTS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. SFC LOW PRES WL TRACK TWD THE OHIO
VALLEY BY 06Z WEDS...THEN NEAR PITTSBURGH PA BY 12Z WEDS AND NYC
BY WEDS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND A FAVORABLE DUAL JET STRUCTURE. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL PWS BTWN 0.75" AND 1.25" ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND NO CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATIONS WL PREVENT STORM FROM BEING A BLOCKBUSTER AND MORE OF
A MODERATE PREICP/SNOWFALL EVENT FOR WEDS INTO THURS. THE SHARP
THERMAL PACKING ACRS OUR CWA...INDICATES STRONG LOW TO MID LVL FGEN/WAA
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 40 TO 50 KNOT 85H JET AND RRQ OF
25H JET ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA. RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER
LIFT/MOISTURE...WITH GREATEST IMPACTS ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. VERY
EARLY INDICATIONS SUPPORT QPF RANGING FROM 0.25 INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TO 0.75" RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES...RESULTING IN ADVISORY
TYPE EVENT NEAR THE BORDER AND WARNINGS ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
ZNS. ANY SHIFT FURTHER NORTH OR SOUTH WOULD GREATLY IMPACT THE
AMOUNT OF QPF/SNOWFALL EXPECTED AND LLVL THERMAL PROFILES. WL CONT
TO MENTION CAT POPS FOR WEDS WITH THERMAL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING ALL
SNOW FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. SNOW WL TAPER OFF WEDS NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...BUT DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
OUR REGION. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS...EXCEPT BLW
NORMAL READINGS ON THURS/FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT OUR REGION NEXT
WEEKEND AS ACTIVE STORM PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH POTENTIAL SYSTEMS
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...AVIATION FOCUS WL BE TIMING OF SNOW THIS
AFTN/EVENING AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SNOW WITH BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW QUICKLY MOVING FROM SW TO
NE TWD CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN. LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP IS
FALLING AS VIRGA IS LLVLS ARE VERY DRY WITH SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ACRS OUR REGION. USING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL
TOOL AND LATEST RAP 13 DATA...THINKING SNOW DEVELOPS AT MSS/SLK BTWN
18Z-19Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS BY 20Z. FOR PBG/BTV THINKING SNOW
DEVELOPS BY 21Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR VIS BTWN 1-2SM DEVELOPING
BY 22Z TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH VIS
<1/2SM AND CIGS AROUND 1000 FEET FOR SLK/MSS BTWN 22Z-03Z THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV BY 23Z AND
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT RUT AS BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS
NORTH OF THIS TAF SITE. THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIP WL EXIT
OUR TAF SITES BY 06Z WITH EXCEPTION OF SLK/MSS...WHICH WL CONT TO
SEE PERIODS OF -SN WITH IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THINKING BL
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AT PBG/BTV FOR A MIXTURE OF -RASN BY 06Z WITH
VIS BTWN 3-5SM...ESPECIALLY AS BETTER LIFTS SHIFTS NORTH OF
REGION. A DEVELOPING SW JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS BTWN 2500 AND 3500
FT AGL WL PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS...WITH SOME SFC WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOME LLVL WS
WL BE POSSIBLE AT MSS WITH NE SFC FLW OF 10 KNTS...WHILE FLW ALOFT
IS FROM THE SW.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRNT SWEEPS ACRS OUR
CWA BTWN 15Z-21Z SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP
POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FROM 00Z MONDAY THRU
06Z WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WL
IMPACT OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z WEDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ002>004-
     006-007-016.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-
     034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 1251 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MIDWEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1203 PM EST SATURDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO UPGRADE SOUTHWEST
ST LAWRENCE COUNTY IN THE EXISTING WINTER WX ADVSY THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE INCLUDING THE 15Z RAP
ANALYSIS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINTER PCPN EVENT AFFECTING OUR AREA LATER TODAY TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE SLV. FAIRLY ROBUST WARM THERMAL
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF 50-60KT 850 JET ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
PCPN ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE
SLV/NRN DACKS AND NRN GREENS. LESSER AMTS ELSEWHERE (0.25 OR LESS)
CHAMPLAIN/CT RVR VALLEYS AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VT WHICH WILL
BE AFFECTED TO A CONSIDERABLE DEGREE BY DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. PCPN
MAY ALSO MIX WITH PERIODS OF SLEET OR EVEN RAIN AT TIMES...NAMELY
AT PCPN ONSET WHEN NEAR-SFC TEMPS ARE THE MILDEST...AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WHEN MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE REACHES MOST NORTHWARD EXENT.
NONETHELESS...FEEL WITH SUCH DRY TD VALUES WET BULB PROCESSES WILL
TEND TO DOMINATE AND MOST OF THE PCPN...ESP IN THE ADVSY AREA WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. LOOKING AT AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE
2-5/3-6 INCH RANGE IN THE ADVSY AREA BY MORNING WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS TO PERHAPS 7/8 INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER ELEV SPOTS.
ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
LOWEST AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHERN VT WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
BEST WAA/DYNAMICS. AFOREMENTIONED SHADOWING EFFECTS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE A LOCAL MINIMUM IN THE IMMEDIATE KPBG/KBTV VCNTY...ESP
AFTER INITIAL WARM ADVECTION PCPN BURST WHEN CORE OF SOUTHWESTERLY
850 JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
30S...THEN MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SATURDAY...GOING INTO SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES PUSH THRU THE AREA WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIP GOING OVER
TO ALL -SW AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO AREA. EXPECTING
EARLY HIGHS FOR THE CWA AS TEMPS SLOWLY DROP THRU THE MORNING HRS.
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE ADVISORY IS UP
WITH LESSER AMTS SOUTH. BY SUNDAY AFTNOON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
CLRD THE CWA...LEAVING AREA UNDER WNW FLOW. EXPECTING SOME
LINGERING -SW DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS W/ ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ACCUM...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN. GOING INTO SUN EVENING/NGT...
PRECIP WILL HAVE TAPERED OFF AND GIVE WAY TO STRONG SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION. GENERAL CLRING TREND WILL
ENSUE AND CONTINUE THRU THE MONDAY TIME FRAME PROVIDING AREA A NICE
DAY. OVERALL FOR TEMPS...NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S MONDAY
AND LOWS IN THE TEEN TO SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER CLRING SKIES SUN
NGT. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S EAST AND 20S WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EST SATURDAY...OBJECTIVE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LESS
THAN NORMAL THIS PERIOD PER RELATIVELY SMALL GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD
AT BTV. GOOD SUBJECTIVE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF ALSO
NOTED.

QUIET WX TO START MON NIGHT THRU TUE WITH 1030MB SFC ANTICYCLONE
CRESTING OVER THE NERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT WINDS AND
GOOD PROSPECTS FOR CLEAR SKIES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS TUE IN THE MID-UPR 20S.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM
THE LWR MS RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE
ACROSS THE TN AND UPR OH RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RESULT IN NWD
ADVECTION OF RICH MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OF 1-1.25" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT 12Z WED. IT APPEAR FOR OUR REGION THAT
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LEADING WAA/
PROGRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC SNOWFALL DEVELOPING SW-NE ACROSS OUR
REGION 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD BECOME STEADY QUICKLY GIVEN
STRENGTH OF FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE
ALL SNOW AS PRIMARY LOW WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS INTO PA 18Z WED AND
REDEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY THAT MODELS TREND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
PROSPECTS FOR RAIN MIXING IN. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE COASTAL
REDEVELOPMENT IS CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS THAT WE HAVEN/T
INDICATED ANY MIXED PCPN/RAIN IN THE OFFICIAL FCST. 700MB TROUGH
REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE...SO LIKELY LOOKING AT A ~12 HR PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL PRE-DAWN HOURS WED THRU WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 6"+ OF
SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON STRENGTH OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION IN THIS
MORNING/S HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 26-30F.

THE WORK WEEK ENDS QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TEMPS TREND COLDER WITH NWLY FLOW. HIGHS GENERALLY UPR
TEENS THU/FRI WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...AVIATION FOCUS WL BE TIMING OF SNOW THIS
AFTN/EVENING AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SNOW WITH BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW QUICKLY MOVING FROM SW TO
NE TWD CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN. LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP IS
FALLING AS VIRGA IS LLVLS ARE VERY DRY WITH SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ACRS OUR REGION. USING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL
TOOL AND LATEST RAP 13 DATA...THINKING SNOW DEVELOPS AT MSS/SLK BTWN
18Z-19Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS BY 20Z. FOR PBG/BTV THINKING SNOW
DEVELOPS BY 21Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR VIS BTWN 1-2SM DEVELOPING
BY 22Z TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH VIS
<1/2SM AND CIGS AROUND 1000 FEET FOR SLK/MSS BTWN 22Z-03Z THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV BY 23Z AND
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT RUT AS BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS
NORTH OF THIS TAF SITE. THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIP WL EXIT
OUR TAF SITES BY 06Z WITH EXCEPTION OF SLK/MSS...WHICH WL CONT TO
SEE PERIODS OF -SN WITH IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THINKING BL
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH AT PBG/BTV FOR A MIXTURE OF -RASN BY 06Z WITH
VIS BTWN 3-5SM...ESPECIALLY AS BETTER LIFTS SHIFTS NORTH OF
REGION. A DEVELOPING SW JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS BTWN 2500 AND 3500
FT AGL WL PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS...WITH SOME SFC WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOME LLVL WS
WL BE POSSIBLE AT MSS WITH NE SFC FLW OF 10 KNTS...WHILE FLW ALOFT
IS FROM THE SW.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRNT SWEEPS ACRS OUR
CWA BTWN 15Z-21Z SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP
POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FROM 00Z MONDAY THRU
06Z WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WL
IMPACT OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z WEDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ002>004-
     006-007-016.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-
     034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...TABER









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 102 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND BRIEFLY STALLS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS TAKING PLACE FROM THE SOUTH. ALREADY ON THE
12Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING AT KMHX...THERE WAS A NARROW LAYER OF GOOD
MOISTURE JUST BELOW 850MB...AND THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS SHOWED DEW
POINTS AT THAT LEVEL NEAR 10C INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS SOUTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN A COUNTY OF THE BORDER...AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON THE RAP FORECASTS CONTINUED 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION INTO
THE AREA AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 35KT LATE IN THE DAY.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN
A CONTINUED NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. JUST BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND 700MB
THERE IS FORECAST LAYER MUCAPE AROUND 100J/KG...WHICH SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT THE AREAS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY MAKE THE PRECIPITATION
SHOWERY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 1. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
CAP THROUGH THE EVENING JUST ABOVE 700MB SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION JUST A LITTLE
FASTER ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS... AND LEFT TEMPERATURES AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS NORTH
COULD KEEP MAXES FROM REACHING POTENTIAL HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
BASED SIMPLY ON 1000-850MB THICKNESSES.

TONIGHT...THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 0.03-0.08" OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE THE SLIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY GREATER ON THE RAP RELATIVE TO THE REST OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO END FROM
WEST-EAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT (BY ~06Z)...PERHAPS LINGERING AS
LATE AS 06-09Z IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO WHAT THE
00Z HIGH RES WRF-NMM SIM REF PRODUCT SUGGESTS...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY BALMY IN COMPARISON TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER (THOUGH PERHAPS ERODING
IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT NEAR SUNRISE SUN)...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S NW TO LOWER/MID 40S SE.

IN TERMS OF THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL...TOP-DOWN DRYING WILL RAPIDLY
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WSW AND ADVECTS
A DRIER AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR N/NW
PIEDMONT. THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK SUN MORNING...WITH
LITTLE SFC ADVECTION AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT SHALLOW SATURATION
(MOST SHALLOW IN NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT) WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE. IF SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN DRYING OCCURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE AGAIN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG EAST
PARTICULARLY INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE LINGERING SNOW COVER AND
COOL GROUND BELOW INCREASING MOISTURE MAY MAKE SUCH CONDITIONS AS
LEAST AS LIKELY AS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE MSLP
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF A SFC TROUGH /COLD FRONT/
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP WEST OF I-95.
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F IN THE NW
PIEDMONT TO LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

...RAIN EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH OF IMPORTANT FEATURES EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THIS TIME FOR OUR REGION THIS PERIOD. THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO
EJECT EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ARE TAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AS A WELL DEFINED SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT... THEN ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME... A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT THIS HIGH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
COLD ENOUGH AIR INTO NC BEFORE THE MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER... A CAD EVENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AS MUCH OF OUR REGION SAVE THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TRACK. JUST NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A CHILLY RAIN
AND NE FLOW. THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES WITH
RAIN DEVELOPING. LOWS 35-45 NORTH TO SE. RAIN MONDAY... POSSIBLY
HEAVY IN THE MORNING... TAPERING OFF IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. HIGHS
40-45 NORTH... 50-55 SOUTHEAST.

THE CAD EVENT DRIVEN BY THE FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW OFFSHORE
AND CHILLY 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THEN YET ANOTHER "WET" SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A WARM
FRONT WILL TRY TO RETURN INTO OUR CAD OVER THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WAA RAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE. LOWS 33-38. TUESDAY... AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH
RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 38 NW TO 55 SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. RESIDUAL CAD SHOULD LINGER IN THE PIEDMONT... WITH
WARMING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAD BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING IN
THE WEST LATE. LOWS WED NIGHT GENERALLY 38-50. HIGH WEDNESDAY 50 NW
TO 65-70 SE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST IS
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO NC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN. LOWS 25-32. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SE.

FRIDAY... A THIRD WET SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
RAIN BY LATER FRIDAY IF NOT BEFORE. TIMING AND DETAILS ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR A STORM TRACK SIMILAR TO THE TWO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. A
COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AND IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO DELIVER COLD DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. HOWEVER... TAKING A MEAN ENSEMBLE APPROACH
PRODUCES A MILLER TYPE B STORM WITH THE MAIN STORM POSSIBLY TRACKING
JUST TO OUR WEST... AND A NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT IF THERE ARE P-TYPE ISSUES... THEY WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/RAIN. CURRENT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FORECAST
THAT FAR OUT... WITH LOW CONFIDENCE... SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN... WITH A
CHANCE OF THE PRECIPIATION BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IN
THE TRIAD REGION. FOR NOW... WE WILL CARRY LIQUID... WITH A START
TIME AFTER NOON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BUT THE CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH IN THAT CAD WOULD BE LIMITED TO HYBRID
AND NOT CLASSICAL (IN WHICH THERE IS A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF COLD AIR
INTO THE SYSTEM). THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE REFINED AS THESE SYSTEMS
EVOLVE THROUGH THE WEEK.

INC. CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 30-35. A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS 37-45 NW TO SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

ON THE STRENGTH OF GOOD 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION...AREAS OF RAIN
WERE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER...
LIKELY DETERIORATING THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 06Z. LESS CONFIDENT IN HOW LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY GET TOWARD THE TRIAD AND FOR THE 18Z VALID TAF
ISSUANCE FORECAST TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS DRYING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE OF
SNOW COVER PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF CLOUDS...THINK THE GREATER
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IS MORE TOWARD THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR AND PARTICULARLY TOWARD KRWI...WITH SOME INCREASING
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE HELPING WITH BETTER...ALBEIT MODEST...
MIXING ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS SHOULD ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI CEILINGS COULD BE SOLIDLY LOW MVFR
EVEN AT THE END OF THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS OFF OF THE
SURFACE NEAR 2000FT WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 25KT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR LLWS.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN A SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND STALLS FOR A TIME...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. THOUGH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN DIMINISH...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF IFR...SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
PROBABILITY OF CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...DJF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1008 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.UPDATE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY DO A
GOOD JOB TO PULL WARMER AIR IN ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE BIG WARM-UP
IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY. BY MID-MORNING, TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN
THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS, AND STILL BELIEVE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TOP OUT ANYWHERE FROM 59 TO 63 DEGREES.

LATEST RUC SHOWS PRECIP STAYING TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH 00Z, AND
HAVE TRIMMED OUR SLIGHT CHANCE AREA TO JUST THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
PART OF STEWART COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19






FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

CONTINUED COLD WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AT TIMES.

THE FLOW ENTERING NOAM HAS BECOME SPLIT...WITH NRN STREAM
DIVERTING ARND STG RIDGE OVER AK AND SRN STREAM UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE AND FLOWING INTO CA/NRN MEXICO. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROF
EXTENDED FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE DESERT W. THE STREAMS REMAINED
SEPARATE AS THE ENTERED THE TROF POSN...THEN MERGED BACK TOGETHER
INTO A STG BROAD SWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FM THE TROF AXIS...FM THE
SRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. CHGS TO THE PATTERN DURING THE FCST
PERIOD WL BE SML...WITH PERHAPS THE EXTENSION OF THE TROF IN THE
SWRN CONUS RETROGRADING A LITTLE AND THE SRN STREAM STRENGTHENING
A BIT.

NLY UPR FLOW ACRS WRN CANADA DOWNSTREAM FM THE AK UPR RIDGE WL
ALLOW A COLD ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE TO RIDGE SWD TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN A CONTINUOUS FEED OF COLD AIR INTO THE FCST
AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN ABOUT 10-18F DEG BLO NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD. THOUGH THE COLD WON/T BE AS SEVERE AS SOME OF THE PERIODS
IN JANUARY...IT MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE PERSISTENT AS LESS
ROLLERCOASTERING OF TEMPS IS EXPECTED. THE FCST AREA IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELDS FM SRN STREAM
SYSTEMS...WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE PASSING BY TO OUR S.
SO...PCPN AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP BLO NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A REINFORCING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.  LIGHT SNOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RECENT UPTICK IN INTENSITY
POSSIBLY SUGGESTS SUPPORT FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.  STILL THINKING THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART BY
THE START OF THE EVENING.  CLEARING IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN THE
SMALL COMMA HEAD OVER NE MINNESOTA WILL LIKELY BRUSH N-C WISCONSIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.   SNOW TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN SHOULD HAVE EXITED BY THE START OF THE EVENING.  MEANWHILE
A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  SOME CLEARING OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS SHOULD ARRIVE INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.  BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN SO KEPT A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING.  COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT AND WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR
DECOUPLING.  COMBINED WITH UNCERTAINTIES WITH CLOUD COVER...THIS
MAKES FOR ANOTHER DIFFICULT TEMP FORECAST.  LIKE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WILL SHOW COLDER TEMPS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING WILL OCCUR.  BUT IF WINDS DROP OFF...TEMPS
COULD TANK LIKE LAST NIGHT.  WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS
ACROSS THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LAST.  WIND CHILLS MAY STILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT ASSUMING WINDS DO NOT BECOME CALM.

SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ORIGINATING FROM AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
PROVIDE A COLD BUT QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PRESENT.  WENT WITH A COMBO OF ECMWF GUIDANCE AND
ALLBLEND FOR HIGHS...WHICH WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO.  THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR THIS DATE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

WITH LITTLE CHG TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ANTICIPATED...LAST
NIGHT WAS A GOOD INDICATOR OF THE PITFALLS OF THE NIGHTTIME TEMP
FCSTS. SINCE THE CORE OF THE COLD WL REMAIN TO OUR NW...TEMPS WL
DEPEND ON CLDS AND WINDS. ONCE THE CLDS DISSIPATED AND WIND WENT
CALM LAST NGT...TEMPS ABSOLUTELY TANKED AND ENDED UP NEARLY AS
COLD AS LAST WEEK WHEN THE CORE OF THE COLD WAS DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. /OF COURSE...WINDS AND HENCE WIND CHILLS WERE NOT NEARLY AS
LOW THIS TIME ARND./ TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A BIT AT TIMES WHEN IT
LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE CLR PERIODS AT NGT. OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO BLEND OF TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE.

PRECIP-WISE...THE M.O. OF THE PAST COUPLE SYSTEMS HAS BEEN FOR
EACH TO LOOK LIKE A BETTER PCPN PRODUCER THAN IT/S PREDECESSOR
WHEN VIEWED FM A FEW DAYS OUT...ONLY TO END UP WITH A SWD SHIFT IN
THE PCPN ON THE MODEL RUNS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. DESPITE SOME
EARLY MODEL RUNS INDICATING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW TDA IN E-C
WI...WE ARE ENDING UP WITH PRETTY MUCH A NUISANCE EVENT. NOW THE
TUE-WED SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER S AS
WELL...WITH THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING LIKE A BETTER PCPN
PRODUCER. HAVE TO WONDER IF LATER EVENTS WILL END UP PRIMARILY
BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE S AS WELL. AS SUCH...USED NOTHING MORE
THAN CHC POPS IN THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON.  INTENSITY AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS ROBUST AS THOUGHT EARLIER AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
WILL BE MINOR.  THEN AN ILL-DEFINED ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING.  A BKN MVFR CLOUD DECK IS POSSIBLE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT THEN SHOULD SEE A CLEARING TREND ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS
ARCTIC AIR RE-FLOODS THE REGION.  THIS AIRMASS IS NOT FREE OF
CLOUDS...SO KEPT SCT-BKN COVERAGE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR GENERALLY.
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD...GOOD FLYING WEATHER SHOULD BE PRESENT TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1151 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. BEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...OR REMAINED
TO THE SOUTH.

THERE IS SOME LINGERING 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE
FIELDS...HELPING DRIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW BANDS IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR RUN HAD ANY REMAINING LIGHT
SNOW/QPF FIELDS WEAKENING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL TREND DOWN
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/2 INCH AT
BEST. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUES. NEED TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES OR
ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP TO
1/2 INCH AT BEST.

VISIBILITIES NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND VFR IN THE
EASTERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MADISON REMAINING VFR. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL BACK NORTHWEST BY 00Z SUNDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE A
BIT ON SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT BY 09Z TO 10Z SUNDAY...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED
AT THIS TIME...AS THE GUSTS MAY NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THEY HAVE ALL CUT BACK ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. THIS IS A FAST
MOVING AND RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL SOUTH...
MOVING OVER CNTRL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT MID DAY...THEN TO LAKE ERIE
BY EVENING. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH ACROSS
ILLINOIS.  DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY FLOW BACK IN AS THE NORTH WINDS
INCREASE WITH THE LOW HEADING EAST OF THE AREA. WE ARE SEEING SOME
DECENT INITIAL SNOWFALL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
LEADING WARM ADVECTION. BUT THAT PUSHES OFF QUICKLY. THE NEXT ROUND
WITH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STARTING
TO SHOW UP UPSTREAM AND THE HEAVIEST IS CLEARING TAKING AIM AT AREAS
SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO BE NEARLY WRAPPED UP IN THE
MADISON AREA BY NOON...BUT LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY 1 TO 2 INCHES AND HAVE PULLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KENOSHA COUNTY AND PUT THEM INTO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. LEFT THE REST OF THE ADVISORY ALONE. ADMITTEDLY...
SOME OF THE COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE TO JUSTIFY THE
ADVISORY...BUT THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT SLICK OUT THERE. SO OUT OF AN
ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAY AS ORIGINALLY
POSTED.

TEMPS WILL WARM WARM INTO THE 20S TODAY.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING TEMPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.  TEMPS WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS EAST TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO WEST OF MADISON.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LOOK FOR BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS INTO SOUTHERN WI. MEANWHILE...A CORE OF COLD
AIR...850MB TEMP OF 14 TO 16 BELOW...WILL DROP INTO WISCONSIN DURING
THE DAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE TO 10 TO 15
DEGREES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... EXPECTING EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE THE RIDGE AND COLD AIR ARE STILL OVERHEAD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE COLDER.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

RELATIVELY WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERN WI BEGINNING MONDAY AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS ARE TRENDING
WARMER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...BUT ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET...VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 700MB UPWARD MOTION WILL BE PRESENT.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SWEEP ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI. USING CONSENSUS QPF AND SNOW RATIOS...IT LOOKS LIKE A
LONG-DURATION 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
MKX FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY HIGHER TOWARD KENOSHA.

THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECASTS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

IT LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER HIGH-MOISTURE SYSTEM BRUSHING
SOUTHERN WI NEXT SATURDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW THROUGH 18Z...THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO KMSN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA BY MID EVENING.  SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING
FARTHER SOUTH. MADISON SHOULD GET 2 TO 3 INCHES...MILWAUKEE ABOUT
3.5 AND AROUND 4 INCHES IN THE KENOSHA AREA. PEAK SNOWFALL WILL BE
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.  WIND WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR WHILE THE
SNOW FALLS...REMAINING BELOW 10KTS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...BACKING TO NORTH THEN NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC