Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/31/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
618 PM PST THU JAN 30 2014 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 6:09 PM THURSDAY...WILL ISSUE AN EVENING UPDATE FOR ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES. LAST VISIBLE SHOTS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED CLOUD MASS WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO. SOME OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. ADMITTEDLY LEANING ON THE RAP SHORT TERM MODEL FOR THIS UPDATE AS WELL AS CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. KMUX-88D IS STARTING TO PICK UP SOME RETURNS OUT WEST OF THE FARALLONES. THE AIRMASS IS NOW MUCH COLDER ALOFT AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/FORCING ALOFT. UPSHOT IS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE INCREASED POPS...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND SANTA CRUZ MTNS AS WELL AS THE BIG SUR COAST. THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WAS VERY MEAGER IN ITS RAIN AMOUNTS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WE CAN OFTEN GET SOME OF OUR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN SHOWERS IN THE POST-FRONTAL/NW ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD. ANYWAY...GIVEN THE RAINFALL DEFICITS WILL TAKE ANYTHING WE CAN SO FORECAST POPS AND QPF WERE MASSAGED FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. CURRENT SET-UP LOOKS LIKE THE NORTH BAY WILL MOSTLY BE MISSED. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND BE DONE BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH NW ONSHORE WINDS. NEXT FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE INCOMING UPPER LOW THAT MAY SKIRT THE COAST ROUGHLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH BIG SUR. GEM AND ECMWF ARE WETTEST AND MOST BULLISH WHILE LATEST NAM AND GFS REMAIN WEAKER WITH SYSTEM MORE OFFSHORE. LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER FOR A WHILE NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST THERE IS SOME HINT OF MORE POTENTIAL STORMS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1:43 PM PST THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT A BETTER CHANCE ON SUNDAY WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AFTER A WET START TO THE MORNING...THE SUN CAME OUT FOR MUCH OF THE BAY AREA. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE REGION HAS EXITED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...MOST LOCATIONS ARE WITH IN A FEW DEGREES OF YESTERDAY OR A TAD COOLER UNDER THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION. THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE MOST NOTABLE ONE IS LOCATED NEAR 40N 135W. SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-SUNDAY)... FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PASSING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FORECAST. THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND EVEN SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. THE CONSENSUS IN THE OFFICE IS THAT THE INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE OVER DONE. NAM HAS RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGH SFC CAPE BEING FORECAST TONIGHT. IF PRECIP DOES FALL OVERNIGHT NOT EXPECTING MUCH...ONLY A FEW ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN. HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS OUT AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF AK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD PASSING THE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. DEFINITELY NOT THE EASIEST FORECAST GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN SOME CASES...THIS FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BRING THE BEST PRECIP TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OR TWO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INLAND EARLY MONDAY. BY THIS POINT ALL PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED. LONG TERM(MONDAY-THURSDAY)... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING MORE LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MIDWEEK BUT CONF IS TO LOW TO ADD ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD....NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE MODELS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AGAIN AND BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST SOLUTION WITH THE GFS KEEPING MORE PRECIP NORTH. ULTIMATELY...THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT THE PATTERN IS CHANGING AND MORE STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION...AS OF 6:15 PM PST THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND SRN MRY BAY ARE OCCASIONALLY GETTING INTO SFO. BELIEVE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE DUE TO EVENING CCOLING AND SHOULD DISSAPPEAR IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE APPEARING ON THE RADAR AND THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA 06Z-12Z. VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS ABOVE 4000 FEET BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS DOWN TO 1700 FEET THROUGH 04Z. POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 06Z-12Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH 06Z. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS 07Z=15Z. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 10 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION: W PI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
609 PM PST THU JAN 30 2014 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 6:09 PM THURSDAY...WILL ISSUE AN EVENING UPDATE FOR ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES. LAST VISIBLE SHOTS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED CLOUD MASS WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO. SOME OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. ADMITTEDLY LEANING ON THE RAP SHORT TERM MODEL FOR THIS UPDATE AS WELL AS CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. KMUX-88D IS STARTING TO PICK UP SOME RETURNS OUT WEST OF THE FARALLONES. THE AIRMASS IS NOW MUCH COLDER ALOFT AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/FORCING ALOFT. UPSHOT IS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE INCREASED POPS...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND SANTA CRUZ MTNS AS WELL AS THE BIG SUR COAST. THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WAS VERY MEAGER IN ITS RAIN AMOUNTS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WE CAN OFTEN GET SOME OF OUR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN SHOWERS IN THE POST-FRONTAL/NW ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD. ANYWAY...GIVEN THE RAINFALL DEFICITS WILL TAKE ANYTHING WE CAN SO FORECAST POPS AND QPF WERE MASSAGED FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. CURRENT SET-UP LOOKS LIKE THE NORTH BAY WILL MOSTLY BE MISSED. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND BE DONE BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH NW ONSHORE WINDS. NEXT FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE INCOMING UPPER LOW THAT MAY SKIRT THE COAST ROUGHLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH BIG SUR. GEM AND ECMWF ARE WETTEST AND MOST BULLISH WHILE LATEST NAM AND GFS REMAIN WEAKER WITH SYSTEM MORE OFFSHORE. LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER FOR A WHILE NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST THERE IS SOME HINT OF MORE POTENTIAL STORMS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1:43 PM PST THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT A BETTER CHANCE ON SUNDAY WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AFTER A WET START TO THE MORNING...THE SUN CAME OUT FOR MUCH OF THE BAY AREA. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE REGION HAS EXITED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...MOST LOCATIONS ARE WITH IN A FEW DEGREES OF YESTERDAY OR A TAD COOLER UNDER THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION. THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE MOST NOTABLE ONE IS LOCATED NEAR 40N 135W. SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-SUNDAY)... FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PASSING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FORECAST. THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND EVEN SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. THE CONSENSUS IN THE OFFICE IS THAT THE INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE OVER DONE. NAM HAS RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGH SFC CAPE BEING FORECAST TONIGHT. IF PRECIP DOES FALL OVERNIGHT NOT EXPECTING MUCH...ONLY A FEW ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN. HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS OUT AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF AK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD PASSING THE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. DEFINITELY NOT THE EASIEST FORECAST GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN SOME CASES...THIS FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BRING THE BEST PRECIP TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OR TWO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INLAND EARLY MONDAY. BY THIS POINT ALL PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED. LONG TERM(MONDAY-THURSDAY)... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING MORE LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MIDWEEK BUT CONF IS TO LOW TO ADD ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD....NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE MODELS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AGAIN AND BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST SOLUTION WITH THE GFS KEEPING MORE PRECIP NORTH. ULTIMATELY...THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT THE PATTERN IS CHANGING AND MORE STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CIGS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF MVFR CIGS PERSISTING OVER SOUTHERN MRY COUNTY. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 3000 FEET. POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 06Z-12Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH 06Z. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS 07Z=15Z. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 10 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION: W PI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
556 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 547 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. BROUGHT IN THE LATEST GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. CONCERN FOR FORECAST THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY WHERE RUC13 AND GFS ARE SHOWING ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY/MONUMENT HILL AREA...AND NAM12 SHOWS VERY LITTLE. WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHERE THE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER UPGLIDE SETS UP. RADAR TRENDS FOCUSING HEAVIER SNOWFALL FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST CO/DENVER AREA WHICH APPEARS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM12 AND HRRR...SO WILL HOLD THE COURSE AND WAIT FOR LATEST 00Z RUNS. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 ...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONTDVD... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AMPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING WIDESPREAD ECHOES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO IMPINGING ON THE CONTDVD...WITH ECHOES SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN FREMONT AND WESTERN TELLER COUNTY AT THIS TIME. AT SFC...A LOW NEAR RATON HAS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME. SOME EARLY TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AND BETWEEN 5 AND 15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN RECORDED ACROSS THE CONTDVD...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER AND NEAR THE CENTRAL MTS. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS MOIST JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG AND MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONTDVD. MODEL QPFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE CONTDVD AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE THE CONTDVD...GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHER WEST FACING PEAKS. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW FALL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MTS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AS THE JET CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS THE STATE...WITH GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND ONLY A FEW INCHES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LATEST HIGHER RES MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER NORTH AND SLOW DOWN SNOW ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...LOOKS LIKE WILL SEE SNOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS CURRENT ECHOES ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. ONLY EXPECTED LIGHT ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FLURRIES AND FOG CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING...AS SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. LATEST MODELS DO INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES REGION AGAIN INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN ONLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EL PASO COUNTY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 ...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS 4 SYSTEMS ARE BEING TRACKED... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEY WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE FCST AREA. WITH THE PRIMARY JET TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON THE PLAINS EACH DAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS LOCATED OVER NE CO AS I WRITE WILL BE LOCATED OVER SE CO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE THE PALMER DIVIDE IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR ACCUM SNOW. AT THIS TIME I HAVE ABOUT 3-6" OF SNOW AFFECTING NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/TELLER COUNTY WITH 1-3" FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS S EL PASO COUNTY. OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT SNOW WILL BE ALL THAT HEAVY...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH. IT IS POSSIBLE OTERO AND KIOWA COUNTIES COULD SEE A BIT MORE (1-2"). SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS FORECAST AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. WINTER WX HILITES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONTDVD FRIDAY NITE. HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS THE W SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS...ESPECIALLY S OF WOLF CREEK PASS S TO THE CO/NM BORDER. BASED ON THIS...I HAVE EXTENDED THE WSW FOR AREAS ALONG THE CONTDVD OUT TO 06Z SAT (11 PM FRI NITE). DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...SIMULATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION/E SLOPES OF S MTNS SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS IN LOW END SCATTERED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. OVER THE MTNS...SNOW WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND WILL GRADUALLY BE DECREASING. SUNDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUED COOL. A WX SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NM...BUT IT APPEARS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE AREA ANY PRECIP. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH IT THOUGH. THE 3RD WEATHER SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS LATER ON MONDAY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE GFS QPF FIELDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE WETTER THAN THE EC. IF THIS STORM DOES DEVELOP AS THE SIMULATIONS INDICATE...THEN WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER DROUGHT STRICKEN SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FCST TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THU. FOR NOW JUST MENTIONED WIDESPREAD LIGHT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. BOTH SIMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS OFF BY ABOUT 12H. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 MVFR CONDITIONS AT COS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW...WITH ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. EXPECTING LOWERING CIGS WITH LIGHT FLURRIES AND FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS AT PUB THROUGH 06Z WITH LOWERING CIGS AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT ALS WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ064-066- 067. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ058>061-068. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ062-063. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...HODANISH/MW AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
911 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY AS A STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER RETURNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 905 AM UPDATE...CORRECTED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. REPORTS SO FAR INDICATE WIDESPREAD 2-5 INCH TOTALS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS...AND ABOUT 1 INCH BACK TO I-95 CORRIDOR. BACK EDGE OF SNOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD COAST. MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS AFFECTING NANTUCKET BUT WAS NARROWING AS IT HEADS E. HRRR HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON RADAR TRENDS AND IS WEIGHED HEAVILY INTO FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON CAPE COD/NANTUCKET BEFORE SNOW ENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING WAS ALREADY WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL REACH COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS IN TEENS AND 20S ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING LESS COLD AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MAKE ROOM FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WHICH MEANS A FEW MORE CLOUDS. WE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT YIELDS NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND TEENS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY CLIMB TO AROUND -16C TO -17C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY - A STORM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...EXACT OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN - COLD AND DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK - ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK */ OVERVIEW... HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR ROUND WHICH INCIPIENT DISTURBANCES WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CONSIDERING NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NORTHERN STREAM POLAR WAVES REMAIN MOISTURE DEPRIVED BY THE MORE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME...WHEREAS SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC WAVES ARE ABLE TO USURP WARM-MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD THEREBY ENHANCING THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WEST. CONSEQUENTIAL INSIDE-RUNNER PATTERN OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULT IN INITIAL PRECIP-TYPE CHALLENGES AS WARMER AIR OVERRUNS LINGERING ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE...BUT SEEMINGLY AS COLDER AIR IS SCOURED OUT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER-WET WEATHER TRENDS...FOLLOWED BY THE REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REAR. */ MODEL PREFERENCE... MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INCONSISTENCIES...NEVERTHELESS TRENDS ARE WELL-ESTABLISHED AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED BLEND IS PREFERRED OUT THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT... THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE HELD UP FROM PROGRESSING FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE LOW CENTER SO FAR NORTH AND MODEST WAA / SOUTHERLY FLOW STIFLES THE SAG OF THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC IS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST. WITH BEST DYNAMICS / FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE /MORE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS/ HAVE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF OUTCOMES FORCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/ MAINLY THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE /FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME/. WILL PUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS N/W MA AND S NH CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. LIGHT ACCUMS IF ANY. BLUSTERY SOUTH WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WEST WINDS AND CAA. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... A PAIRING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WHICH DO NOT APPEAR TO PHASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE TWO SEEMINGLY INDICATES THAT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR WAVE RACES AHEAD CUTTING OFF FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE FLOW TO WHICH THE SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC WAVE WITHIN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET RETAINS. SUBSEQUENTLY...PER INDICATIONS...THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION ACROSS THE NE CONUS. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INCONSISTENCIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE LEND TO UNCERTAINTY. INITIAL CHALLENGES INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE INITIAL WARM-FRONT AND PRECIP-TYPE CONSIDERATIONS /COULD BE TOO DRY OR PERHAPS PRECIP WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT HEADLINES INITIALLY...NEVERTHELESS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE PREVAILED SUCH CONDITIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST/. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS PREFERRED AS BRANCHING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INVOKES A MODEST WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF REGION INTO THE NE CONUS /SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS GETTING TO THE SURFACE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE/...THIS LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. AGAIN...PRECIP- TYPES AN ISSUE. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND INVOCATION OF A COASTAL LOW IN PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE BETTER BAROCLINIC ZONE...SHOULD SEE AN END TO ACTIVITY BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. COLD-AIR DAMMING SETUP EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER INSIDE-RUNNER LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. MIDWEEK... A SECOND INSIDE-RUNNER LOW. LIKELY SOME INITIAL PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. WILL ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW AS THE GREATEST DISPARITY AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS MAINLY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF OUTCOMES. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1405Z UPDATE: IFR/LIFR GRADUALLY IMPROVES ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS SPREAD E. W WINDS GUST O AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY WHILE VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY. VFR CONTINUES. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LEFTOVER -SN ENDS BY LATE MORNING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR / IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH -SN. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH BLUSTERY S WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY W WINDS TO THE REAR. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DETERIORATING WITH PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES. BLUSTERY S/SW WINDS WITH POTENTIAL LLWS IMPACTS...ALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING OUT TO SEA. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN AREA OF SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITY TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN WATERS. AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THIS WIND WILL HELP BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS...LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BLUSTERY S WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR TURBULENT SEAS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINING BREEZY. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WATERS. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. STORM LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS WILL RENEW BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURNING. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>024. NH...NONE. RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...JWD MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
907 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY AS A STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER RETURNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 905 AM UPDATE... REPORTS SO FAR INDICATE WIDESPREAD 2-5 INCH TOTALS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS...AND ABOUT 1 INCH BACK TO I-95 CORRIDOR. BACK EDGE OF SNOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD COAST. MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS AFFECTING NANTUCKET BUT WAS NARROWING AS IT HEADS E. HRRR HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON RADAR TRENDS AND IS WEIGHED HEAVILY INTO FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON CAPE COD/NANTUCKET BEFORE SNOW ENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING WAS ALREADY WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL REACH COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS IN TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING LESS COLD AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MAKE ROOM FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WHICH MEANS A FEW MORE CLOUDS. WE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT YIELDS NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND TEENS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY CLIMB TO AROUND -16C TO -17C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY - A STORM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...EXACT OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN - COLD AND DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK - ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK */ OVERVIEW... HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR ROUND WHICH INCIPIENT DISTURBANCES WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CONSIDERING NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NORTHERN STREAM POLAR WAVES REMAIN MOISTURE DEPRIVED BY THE MORE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME...WHEREAS SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC WAVES ARE ABLE TO USURP WARM-MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD THEREBY ENHANCING THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WEST. CONSEQUENTIAL INSIDE-RUNNER PATTERN OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULT IN INITIAL PRECIP-TYPE CHALLENGES AS WARMER AIR OVERRUNS LINGERING ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE...BUT SEEMINGLY AS COLDER AIR IS SCOURED OUT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER-WET WEATHER TRENDS...FOLLOWED BY THE REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REAR. */ MODEL PREFERENCE... MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INCONSISTENCIES...NEVERTHELESS TRENDS ARE WELL-ESTABLISHED AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED BLEND IS PREFERRED OUT THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT... THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE HELD UP FROM PROGRESSING FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE LOW CENTER SO FAR NORTH AND MODEST WAA / SOUTHERLY FLOW STIFLES THE SAG OF THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC IS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST. WITH BEST DYNAMICS / FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE /MORE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS/ HAVE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF OUTCOMES FORCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/ MAINLY THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE /FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME/. WILL PUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS N/W MA AND S NH CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. LIGHT ACCUMS IF ANY. BLUSTERY SOUTH WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WEST WINDS AND CAA. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... A PAIRING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WHICH DO NOT APPEAR TO PHASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE TWO SEEMINGLY INDICATES THAT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR WAVE RACES AHEAD CUTTING OFF FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE FLOW TO WHICH THE SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC WAVE WITHIN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET RETAINS. SUBSEQUENTLY...PER INDICATIONS...THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION ACROSS THE NE CONUS. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INCONSISTENCIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE LEND TO UNCERTAINTY. INITIAL CHALLENGES INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE INITIAL WARM-FRONT AND PRECIP-TYPE CONSIDERATIONS /COULD BE TOO DRY OR PERHAPS PRECIP WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT HEADLINES INITIALLY...NEVERTHELESS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE PREVAILED SUCH CONDITIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST/. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS PREFERRED AS BRANCHING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INVOKES A MODEST WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF REGION INTO THE NE CONUS /SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS GETTING TO THE SURFACE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE/...THIS LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. AGAIN...PRECIP- TYPES AN ISSUE. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND INVOCATION OF A COASTAL LOW IN PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE BETTER BAROCLINIC ZONE...SHOULD SEE AN END TO ACTIVITY BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. COLD-AIR DAMMING SETUP EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER INSIDE-RUNNER LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. MIDWEEK... A SECOND INSIDE-RUNNER LOW. LIKELY SOME INITIAL PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. WILL ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW AS THE GREATEST DISPARITY AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS MAINLY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF OUTCOMES. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1405Z UPDATE: IFR/LIFR GRADUALLY IMPROVES ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS SPREAD E. W WINDS GUST O AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY WHILE VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY. VFR CONTINUES. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LEFTOVER -SN ENDS BY LATE MORNING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR / IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH -SN. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH BLUSTERY S WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY W WINDS TO THE REAR. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DETERIORATING WITH PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES. BLUSTERY S/SW WINDS WITH POTENTIAL LLWS IMPACTS...ALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING OUT TO SEA. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN AREA OF SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITY TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN WATERS. AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THIS WIND WILL HELP BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS...LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BLUSTERY S WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR TURBULENT SEAS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINING BREEZY. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WATERS. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. STORM LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS WILL RENEW BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURNING. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>024. NH...NONE. RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...JWD MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
540 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... 09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING...CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DEEP DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP PLUME OF SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH IS NOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF SEEMS TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SUNCOAST CURRENTLY...HOWEVER THE DROP IN DEWPOINTS IS LAGGING A BIG BEHIND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A MUCH COOLER...DAMP...CLOUDY...AND SHOWERY PATTERN DESCENDING ON THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS...A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S IS OCCURRING UP BY CHIEFLAND. A COLD AND STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DRAIN MORE COLDER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO THE PENINSULA TODAY...AND WITH THE SHOWERS FALLING...IT WILL BE QUITE A COOL DAY FOR FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF I-4. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... TODAY/TONIGHT...A RATHER MESSY PATTERN OF MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL... WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOUR OR SO (PERHAPS LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES). THIS TYPE OF PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PUT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL IN THE FORECAST...BUT DID THE BEST WE COULD TO ADD SOME DECISION MAKING VALUE. THE ISSUE WILL BE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS NOT A SINGLE SHORTWAVE ENTITY MOVING THROUGH...BUT RATHER A SERIES OF IMPULSES...SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS...THAT WILL BRING THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND BATCHES OF SHOWERS. SO...THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME IN ANY ONE AREA (ACTUALLY FAR FROM IT)...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A WETTING RAIN AT SOME POINT...AND HENCE THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. BACKED AWAY FROM THE TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY ACTUALLY. MOST OF THE RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...BOTH FROM NCEP AND LOCALLY RUN...SHOW THE BEST SHOWERS CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER THE NATURE COAST...WITH THE I-4 CORRIDOR BEING THE TRANSITION ZONES TO LESS SHOWER COVERAGE. USED THIS CONSENSUS AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NATURE COAST AND THEN TAPER RAIN CHANCES DOWN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS MAKES SINCE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE FIRST PASSING SHORTWAVE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...ALONG WITH THE BETTER POSITIONS UNDERNEATH THE RRQ OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER JET. LATER IN THE DAY...WOULD EXPECT BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SUNCOAST AND INLAND INTERIOR ZONES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE NOT MOVING MUCH TODAY. IN FACT...IF ANYTHING WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME DROP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RAINFALL WILL BE DESCENDING INTO A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE NORTH AND RESULT IN PERIODIC WET-BULB INFLUENCES. TONIGHT...MORE SHOWERS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING BY...AND EVEN CLOSER THAN THE ONE TODAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A BROAD SWATH OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE/SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SEEING THIS SETUP AS WELL...AS MOST OF THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE THE BEST RAIN COVERAGE AFTER DARK. HAVE ESSENTIALLY JUST GIVEN A WIDESPREAD 60-70% RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA. DO NOT LIKE TO "BROAD BRUSH" THE FORECAST THAT MUCH...BUT THE PATTERN ALMOST INSISTS UPON IT. SO...IT WILL BE A COOL...SHOWERY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S...WITH NEAR 50 DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND IN THE 30S UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY. AS WAS TALKED ABOUT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WET-BULB EFFECTS BRING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE UP TOWARD CHIEFLAND EVER SO CLOSE TO SOME FREEZING RAIN POCKETS. SPENT ANOTHER NIGHT SEARCHING OVER SOUNDING AFTER SOUNDING...AND IT SEEMS THAT FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL STILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHILE ANY PRECIP IS FALLING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ONE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ACTUALLY A DECENT PIECE OF ENERGY...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER DECENT SWATH OF SYNOPTIC FORCING PASSING OVER THE PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST...SO THE TREND WILL BE TO TAPER THE POPS OFF THROUGH THE DAY TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL STAY IN THE SHOWER ZONES WHERE THIS LIFT ENCOUNTERS STILL PLENTIFUL COLUMN MOISTURE. FINALLY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL PASS BY AND ALLOW LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO FINALLY MOVE OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-4 DURING THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN END RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A BIG WARMUP TAKES PLACE QUICKLY AFTER A COUPLE OF COOL FLORIDA DAY. MANY SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOME 10-15 OR MORE DEGREES BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE TALKING 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80 SOUTH UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS LOOK ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS FROM THE WESTERN TO THE CENTRAL CONUS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER FL AND CUBA FROM THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC RIDGES TO THE SE U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WAVY TROUGH LIKE FEATURE LIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS FL. FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES DOWN OVER CENTRAL FL AS A FRONT SAGS IN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...GENERALLY STAYING NORTH OF THE FL STATE LINE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...FROM 29/00Z...ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FL REGION. THE WAVY TROUGH BRINGS ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT AND SUN... MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS MOISTURE DEPARTS MON-TUE AND ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE HIGHS REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION... 29/06Z-30/06Z: EXPECT IFR TO LCL LIFR/IN A MIXTURE OF BR/FG WITH STRATUS/ AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND LATE NIGHT HOURS. BKN BANDS OF SHRA...ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL...WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY BUT LIMITED TO JUST VCSH. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHIFT THROUGH THE WEST AND NW TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY TONIGHT. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CLEAR THE FORECAST WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG ALONG THE SUNCOAST WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT TO ADVISORY LEVELS WITH BUILDING SEAS. THESE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A MUCH COOLER...DAMP...AND SHOWERY PATTERN FOR THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. MIXING HEIGHTS AND RESULTING LDSI VALUES WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY. FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS WILL END WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERABLE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER NO DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 58 44 58 51 / 60 70 60 20 FMY 69 52 68 59 / 60 60 60 30 GIF 62 44 58 52 / 60 70 60 20 SRQ 62 46 62 54 / 60 70 60 20 BKV 55 42 55 46 / 60 70 50 10 SPG 60 47 59 53 / 60 70 60 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-DESOTO-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
756 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING AN END TO THE WINTER STORM. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND...AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... IN-SITU ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEAST GA FINALLY DROPPED BELOW FREEZING JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TODAY WHILE CONTINUED PRECIP OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF WITH SOME SLEET MIXING IN. FARTHER NORTH WE HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW WITH A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN. THERE WAS A LULL IN THE PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT A SECONDARY BAND HAS SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE UP THE SC/GA COAST THIS MORNING. WITH DEEP-LAYERED DRYING ACROSS INTERIOR GA/SC AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS FAR INTERIOR ZONES...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM STATESBORO TO HAMPTON TO ST GEORGE. CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS...THE FINAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST. WE ARE SHOWING UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG OUR COAST. THE BRUNT OF ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS...AND EVEN MORE SO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS... ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE NEAR-TERM PROGS. EVEN THE RUC13 IS NOT INITIALIZING THE SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA BEING AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WE DO NOT SEE MUCH HOPE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...ONLY PARTIAL MELTING IS EXPECTED FOR EXISTING ACCUMULATIONS. TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. FARTHER INLAND WE EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER WINDS AND THUS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS INLAND AND CLOSE TO 30 AT THE COAST. THUS...ANY MELTED WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL RE-FREEZE MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING AT LEAST UNTIL THE CURRENT PRECIP TAPERS OFF. THERE IS A CHANCE WE WILL REPLACE THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SIGNIFICANT BLACK ICE ISSUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM ONE THAT HAS BEEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LATELY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE GULF...AND THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A 130 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET...WILL ASSIST IN TRIGGERING ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL EAST OF THE SE COAST. WHILE THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE...ITS FORMATION DOES PREVENT THE DEEPER DRIER AIR FROM PENETRATING TO OUR IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS FOUND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND ARCTIC HIGH. GIVEN THAT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD THERE BE ANY SHIFT WEST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE...THERE COULD BE A SMALL RISK FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OF BIGGER CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE MORNING WHERE THE STANDING MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER WILL CREATE A SITUATION WHERE BLACK ICE WILL BE COMMON ON UNTREATED SURFACES. OTHERWISE...THE AIR MASS DOES START DRYING OUT WELL INLAND UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SPRAWLING RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AND THAT ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION INLAND WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLY WARMER DAY...BUT STILL FAR BELOW TYPICAL LATE JANUARY NORMS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SHOVE THE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER EAST...WHICH IN TURN FORCES THE DRIER AIR TO PUSH FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS INLAND FROM US-17. RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE AIR MASS...AND THAT ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND RISING HEIGHTS WITH A ZONAL FLOW UPSTAIRS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE AREA WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC...WHOSE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL STRETCH WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES. THIS POSITION OF THE HIGH ALLOWS FOR A COASTAL TROUGH TO FORM OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM...STUCK FROM SHIFTING WEST BY THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. THE ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE RISE IN TEMPS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS OUR REASONING FOR SHOWING SMALL POPS ON SATURDAY...THANKFULLY IN LIQUID FORM. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A DE-AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ALOFT...WITH A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS...WHILE A SPLIT FLOW FORMS OUT WEST. WE/LL BE SITUATED WITHIN A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY THE COASTAL TROUGH FALLS APART AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. A SOUTH AND SW FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED INCREASED IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONGER WIND FIELDS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS. WARM ADVECTION IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AND WE/LL ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS REACHING 70 IN SOME PLACES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST...ALBEIT A LOW END ONE...WILL BE THE RISK FOR SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND EVENTUALLY MORE HUMID AIR OVER-RIDES THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TIMING IS SLOWER THAN WE SAW THIS TIME YESTERDAY ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW HAVING DELAYED IT ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT KSAV AND KCHS THIS MORNING...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF. CEILINGS WILL TEETER NEAR THE MVFR/IFR RANGE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE VFR WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND...OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. && .MARINE... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE BETWEEN A STALLED FRONT A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SE COAST AND AN ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE EAST AND SE STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED WITH AS MUCH AS A 2-3 MB SPREAD FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THAT ALONG WITH BOUTS OF COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THE 0-20 NM WATERS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT COULD FALL JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY. ON AVERAGE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH 20-25 KT AND GUSTY BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT AND 8-9 FT NEAR 60 NM OUT TODAY...BEFORE DROPPING AROUND A FOOT OR TWO TONIGHT/THURSDAY. AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL 0-20 NM LEGS WILL COME DOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR LESS THAN 15-20 KT KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT A MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE VASTLY IMPROVED DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE LOCAL WATERS GENERALLY INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM OVER OR NEARBY...AND WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM VEERING TOO QUICKLY. BUT ONCE WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY...THERE IS A LOW END RISK FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT. MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...BUT TIMING OF THE ACTUAL PASSAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION THIS FAR IN ADVANCE WITH BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF IT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WE FELL JUST SHY OF THE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE...PEAKING AROUND 6.85 FT MLLW. TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES...SUGGESTING THAT SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MAY STILL YET OCCUR WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 29TH... KCHS...41 SET IN 2000. KCHL...36 SET IN 1897. KSAV...33 SET IN 1897. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ087- 088-099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ040- 042>045-047>052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352- 354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JRL SHORT TERM...33/RJB LONG TERM...33 AVIATION...33 MARINE...33 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
328 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS MORNING. THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO ALL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AHEAD OF THIS TRANSITION LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THIS SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST SPC WRF INDICATED SNOW ENDING IN THE WEST PART BETWEEN 400 AM AND 600 AM...AND THE EAST PART DURING THE 600 AM TO 900 AM TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW AND GETTING BELOW THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 200 AM TO 600 AM TIME FRAME...SO THE SNOW MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER AND POSSIBLY BECOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIPITATION-TYPE EVENT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM MCCORMICK TO SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA TO AIKEN TO COLUMBIA PLUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS FROM CAMDEN TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECASTED. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG AND ORANGEBURG...TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH. THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT- OVER SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE. SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES TONIGHT...WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROF LEVELS OUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 40 TO 45 WITH 50 TO 55 FRIDAY AND AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND IN THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER TX. LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST THRU THE LOWER MS VALLEY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN IFR/MVFR AS SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. OBSERVATIONS FROM SITES TO OUR WEST WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED SHOW VFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015- 018-020-021-025-026. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016- 022-027>031-035>038-041. GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040- 063>065. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ077. && $$ 02/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
113 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS MORNING. THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO ALL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AHEAD OF THIS TRANSITION LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THIS SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST SPC WRF INDICATED SNOW ENDING IN THE WEST PART BETWEEN 400 AM AND 600 AM...AND THE EAST PART DURING THE 600 AM TO 900 AM TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW AND GETTING BELOW THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 200 AM TO 600 AM TIME FRAME...SO THE SNOW MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER AND POSSIBLY BECOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIPITATION-TYPE EVENT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM MCCORMICK TO SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA TO AIKEN TO COLUMBIA PLUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS FROM CAMDEN TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECASTED. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG AND ORANGEBURG...TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH. THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT- OVER SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE. SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES TONIGHT...WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH READINGS BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GFS SHOWING INDICATING BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH. CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN IFR/MVFR AS SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. OBSERVATIONS FROM SITES TO OUR WEST WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED SHOW VFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015- 016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040- 063>065-077. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
647 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014 A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID EVENING...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION WILL DIMINISH INTO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014 FORECAST BEING UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER EAST WITH FAST MOVING BAND OF SNOW. HAVE NOT HEARD MANY REPORTS YET BUT BASED ON OBSERVATION OF SNOWFALL HERE AT THE OFFICE MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO A HALF MILE OR LESS IN SOME AREAS. SPS ISSUED TO HELP HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW AS UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. MOST HIGH RES MODELS HANDLING THE OVERALL SETUP POORLY WITH THE RAP BEING THE ONLY ONE CAPTURING THE CURRENT PICTURE. AS A RESULT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH AFTER 6Z FAR NW AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH 11Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND PRECIP ENDING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014 SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. RADAR COMPOSITE AND SFC OBS SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS IL ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS IT MOVES EAST AND LEAVES POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN QUESTION OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES REMAIN WEST AND NORTH WITH BEST RADAR DEPICTION AND DYNAMICS WITH AN INCH EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE UP TO TWO INCHES WITH ANY ENHANCEMENTS BUT DELTA TS NOT THAT FAVORABLE. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST HAVE KEPT AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO HALF INCH. STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT 12Z SOUNDINGS LOOKED DRIER IN LOWER LEVELS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS. FRONT WILL SAG JUST SOUTH OF CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH LATER IN DAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. FGEN FORCING AND OVERRUNNING DEVELOP WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST CLOSER TO BETTER FGEN BAND. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014 STORMY SW FLW PATTN DVLPG THIS PD. DVRG ASSOCD/W TRAILING SFC WAVE DVLPMNT FRI NIGHT-SAT REMAINS CONCERNING GIVEN INTER MODEL SPREAD AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. HIGHRES/SPECTRAL SPLIT REMAINS W/HIGHRES SOLUTIONS COLDER ALOFT AND SPECTRAL SOLUTIONS WARMER ALOFT YET BOTH CAMPS SIGLY WETTER. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OF LTL HELP EITHER IN SWINGING THE PENDULUM EITHER WAY ALTHOUGH DOES ILLUSTRATE THE SIG SPREAD. MOST DIFFICULT ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITHIN MOST LIKELY TRANSITION ZONE THROUGH THE SW-NE CENTER OF THE CWA ON SAT ALTHOUGH EASIEST POSITION TO TAKE WAS TO EVENLY SPLIT GUIDANCE DIFFS AND LET THE GRIDS FALL OUT FROM THERE. THIS MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION OBVIATES A NEED FOR A WATCH SE HALF AS ANY FURTHER INCORPORATION OF LARGER SPECTRAL CONSENSUS FVRS RAIN EVEN FURTHER NWWD ACRS IN W/ONLY SW MI STAYING AOB 0C ALOFT FOR PREDOMINANT SNOW PTYPE. THUS AT THIS JUNCTURE WILL SIDE W/A SMALLER WATCH ISSUANCE EVEN THOUGH HIGHRES THERMO SIGNALS MAY BE A BTR FIT GIVEN XPCD LG ADIABATIC EFFECTS SAT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES SHLD RAPIDLY NARROW TWD A MORE SOLIDIFIED CONSENSUS. AT ANY RATE SIG PCPN ASSURED LTR FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS DOWNSTREAM MSTR FLUX BLOSSOMS NEWD OF EJECTING SFC WAVE. ROBUST LL WAA SHLD BE HELD IN CHECK W/WIDESPREAD CLDS/PRECIP/AND SNOW COVER AND XPC SNOWPACK TO ABSORB MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN SE ESP AS WINDOW OF ABV FREEZING TEMPS IS SHRT LIVED AND SFC TDS JUMP INTO THE MID 30S AT BEST. AREAS NW OF SFC LOW TRACK XPCD TO STAY PRIMARILY SNOW AS WK SFC DVLPMNT HERALDS A TIGHT RAIN/MIX/SNOW LINE. HERE XPC A GENERAL 6-8 INCH ACCUM CNTRD ALG A LAPORTE TO CASSOPOLIS LINE. AMTS DROP QUICKLY SEWD W/1-2 XPCD SE OF A LOGANSPORT TO DEFIANCE LINE. INBTWN REMAINS THE TOSS UP DEPENDENT ON BOTH EXTENT AND DURATION OF WARMING ALOFT HWVR THAT WINDOW APPEARS BRIEF <6HRS AND LIKELY BORDERED EITHER SIDE W/A PD OF MOD-HVY MIXED PRECIP. ROBUST LL CAA WING FOLLOWS IN WAKE OF THIS SYS SUN-MON AS POLAR RIDGE BLDS SEWD OUT OF SRN CANADA. ATTN THEN SHIFTS TWD A STG SWRN US DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OUT OVR THE NPAC. QUITE AGREEABLE GUIDANCE TRENDS ALG W/CONSIDERABLE TRACK CONSENSUS SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SIG WINTER STORM LIKELY ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY TUE-WED. WILL BUMP POPS ACCORDINGLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014 MAIN BAND OF SNOW HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM KSBN AND NOW TAKING AIM ON KFWA WITH A BURST OF MVFR/UPPER END IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. CAN`T COMPELTELY RULE OUT DROP TO MILE OR LESS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FORM COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BUT HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW. BEHIND THE MAIN BAND PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS IL/WI STILL SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW AND EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT KSBN BUT LEAVE OUT OF KFWA FOR NOW AS MAIN THREAT LOKS TO REMAIN NW OF THE AIRPORT. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 6 AND 10Z FRI WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND ANY PRECIP MOVING OUT. A FEW MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD ARRIVE BY 18Z FRI WITH BETTER CHANCES EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 18Z WITH TAFS REFLECTING THIS TREND. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR INZ003>005. MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MIZ077>079. OH...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...FISHER SYNOPSIS...MURPHY SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...T AVIATION...FISHER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
514 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N ON FRIDAY...AND STALLS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...IT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 515PM UPDATE... HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POP FORECAST. VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WESTERLY WINDS CAUSE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS IN COORDINATION WITH A PASSING TROUGH. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LOWS TO BE BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE COASTLINE. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL APPROACH 20 BELOW IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ISOLATED...SO WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY... ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH MILDER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP UP TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE OVERALL +PNA PATTERN AT 500 MB CONTINUES...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE MEAN TROUGHINESS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS EVERY DAY OR TWO...BUT NO BIG STORMS IN SIGHT. THE RIDGING REACHING POLEWARD ACROSS ALASKA WILL CUT OFF THE COLDEST HEMISPHERIC AIR...HOLDING OVER SIBERIA INTO NEXT WEEK. SO...IT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE TRENDING TO A PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WE GET INTO SOME STAGNANT FLOW AT LOW LEVELS... AND THE MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WELL LINED UP. A WEAKENING 500 MB WAVE TRACKS JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE... WHERE IT LOOKS TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY... WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS... MAINLY IN THE NORTH. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY... WHICH IS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION... WHICH WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW... EXCEPT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WITH SOME COOLER AIR IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR ON FRIDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON... PERSISTING THRU MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WITH GRADIENT INCREASING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...WILL LEAVE SCAS UP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM...SCA WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH ON FRIDAY... WITH FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF WINTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
303 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N ON FRIDAY...AND STALLS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...IT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LOWS TO BE BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE COASTLINE. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL APPROACH 20 BELOW IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ISOLATED...SO WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH MILDER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP UP TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE OVERALL +PNA PATTERN AT 500 MB CONTINUES...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE MEAN TROUGHINESS IN PLACE OVER ERN NOAM...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS EVERY DAY OR TWO...BUT NO BIG STORMS IN SIGHT. THE RIDGING REACHING POLEWARD ACROSS ALASKA WILL CUT OFF THE COLDEST HEMISPHERIC AIR...HOLDING OVER SIBERIA INTO NEXT WEEK. SO...IT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE TRENDING TO A PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WE GET INTO SOME STAGNANT FLOW AT LOW LVLS...AND THE MID-HIGH LVL FLOW BECOMES WELL LINED UP. A WEAKENING 500 MB WAVE TRACKS JUST TO OUR N LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SF COLD FRONT S INTO NRN ME...WHERE IT LOOKS TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY....WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHSN...MAINLY IN THE N. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK EWD ALONG THE FRONT LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH IS THE BETTER CHC FOR PRECIP...WHICH WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...EXCEPT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME COOLER AIR IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS SFC TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE S. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR ON FRI...THEN POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER IN SN SAT NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SUN AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THRU MON. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WITH GRADIENT INCREASING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...WILL LEAVE SCAS UP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM...SCA WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH ON FRI...WITH FAIRLY QUIET CONDS FOR THE MIDDLE OF WINTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1217 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... LAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ARE NOW OFF THE COASTLINE. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING FOR FULL SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE MAINLAND AS OF 14Z. THIS PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 27 BELOW LAST NIGHT AT PITTSTON FARM. PREV DISC... UPDATED TO INCREASE CHC OF PRCP CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH NOW PUTS PSM INTO A SLGT CHC. A FEW FLURRIES FELL EARLIER AND CIG HAS LOWERED DUE TO PRCP FROM OCEAN LOW AND FNT TO THE SE. THE LOW AND FNT ARE STILL WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACT SHOULD STAY OFF THE COAST. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NE BRINGING THE FNT OUT TO SEA WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONT TO HIGH AND SOME MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS TO THE N AND W...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN SYSTEM. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRCP FROM THE OCEAN SYSTEM SINCE IT IS SO FAR AWAY AND AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. ANY PRCP SHOWING UP ON RADAR WILL REMAIN ALOFT OVER OUR COASTAL AND ADJACENT INTERIOR ZONES. SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE SW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 FOR NRN AREAS AND LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. LGT WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG...THOUGH IT WILL CREATE A BIT OF A WIND CHILL IT WON`T BE ANY WHERE NEAR CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TNGT THEN SLIDES OFF SHORE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME MOSTLY LGT AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLR THOUGH PARTIAL CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. A FEW COLDER SPORTS UP NORTH COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS IN THE SOUTH DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST WE GET A RETURN FLOW OF S SW WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WARMING SW FLOW ALOFT TO GIVE US MILDER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND IN THE 20S SOUTH. SOME COASTAL TOWNS MAY APPROACH 30 DEGREES. THE WX SHOULD STAY DRY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SERIES OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. THE COLD WILL EASE BUT WE`LL ALSO TURN WETTER AND STORMIER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TODAY AND TNGT THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. PASSING OCEAN LOW AND FNT TODAY WILL NOT IMPACT THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT IT HAS PRODUCED MVFR CIG AT PSM WHICH WILL CONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN IMPROVE. LONG TERM... FRI...SCT MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. SAT PM - SUN AM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. ISSUED AN SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATER TNGT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TNGT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATER ENHANCES WIND GUSTS. WINDS DROP OFF LATE TNGT AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL PICK UP TODAY THEN DROP OFF LATE TNGT...MORE SO OVER THE OPEN WATERS THAN OVER THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY... THOUGH THE RETURN FLOW OF S SW WINDS PICKS UP LATER IN THE DAY AND MAY CREATE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. WILL FCST LGT FREEZING SPRAY TODAY AND TNGT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZING SPRAY ADV. LONG TERM... FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SAT PM - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
915 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... LAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE COASTLINE AS OF THE MID MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE MAINLAND AS OF 14Z. THIS PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 27 BELOW LAST NIGHT AT PITTSTON FARM. PREV DISC... UPDATED TO INCREASE CHC OF PRCP CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH NOW PUTS PSM INTO A SLGT CHC. A FEW FLURRIES FELL EARLIER AND CIG HAS LOWERED DUE TO PRCP FROM OCEAN LOW AND FNT TO THE SE. THE LOW AND FNT ARE STILL WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACT SHOULD STAY OFF THE COAST. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NE BRINGING THE FNT OUT TO SEA WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONT TO HIGH AND SOME MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS TO THE N AND W...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN SYSTEM. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRCP FROM THE OCEAN SYSTEM SINCE IT IS SO FAR AWAY AND AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. ANY PRCP SHOWING UP ON RADAR WILL REMAIN ALOFT OVER OUR COASTAL AND ADJACENT INTERIOR ZONES. SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE SW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 FOR NRN AREAS AND LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. LGT WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG...THOUGH IT WILL CREATE A BIT OF A WIND CHILL IT WON`T BE ANY WHERE NEAR CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TNGT THEN SLIDES OFF SHORE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME MOSTLY LGT AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLR THOUGH PARTIAL CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. A FEW COLDER SPORTS UP NORTH COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS IN THE SOUTH DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST WE GET A RETURN FLOW OF S SW WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WARMING SW FLOW ALOFT TO GIVE US MILDER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND IN THE 20S SOUTH. SOME COASTAL TOWNS MAY APPROACH 30 DEGREES. THE WX SHOULD STAY DRY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SERIES OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. THE COLD WILL EASE BUT WE`LL ALSO TURN WETTER AND STORMIER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TODAY AND TNGT THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. PASSING OCEAN LOW AND FNT TODAY WILL NOT IMPACT THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT IT HAS PRODUCED MVFR CIG AT PSM WHICH WILL CONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN IMPROVE. LONG TERM... FRI...SCT MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. SAT PM - SUN AM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. ISSUED AN SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATER TNGT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TNGT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATER ENHANCES WIND GUSTS. WINDS DROP OFF LATE TNGT AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL PICK UP TODAY THEN DROP OFF LATE TNGT...MORE SO OVER THE OPEN WATERS THAN OVER THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY... THOUGH THE RETURN FLOW OF S SW WINDS PICKS UP LATER IN THE DAY AND MAY CREATE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. WILL FCST LGT FREEZING SPRAY TODAY AND TNGT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZING SPRAY ADV. LONG TERM... FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SAT PM - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1014 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISEE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SAT PIX AND SFC OBS SHOWED LAYER OF LWR SC (1500 FT-3000 FT) PUSHING INTO THE MD/VA ERN SHR AND INTO SE VA AND NE NC. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF MOIST LO LVL FLOW ARND WEAK LO PRES OFF THE SE CST. LATEST RDR ALSO INDICATED A FEW LGT SHOWERS (RA-/IP-?) MOVNG ENE ALNG THE SC/NC CST INTO SRN VA BEACH AREA. TEMPS DOWN IN THESE LOCATIONS WERE IN THE LWR 30S AND WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO THE UPR 20S TWD MORNG DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE ADDED A SLGT CHC OF R-/IP- IN THOSE AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE OVRNGT. OTHRWISE...MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LWR 20S. PREVIOUS DISCN: A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (EXTENDING FROM WELL OFF THE SE COAST TO SRN FLORIDA) AND SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS EVENING... WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO FAR SE VA OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD INSULATE THE ATMOSPHERE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO LIKE EARLY THIS MORNING IN THOSE AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 20S HERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE VERY LIGHT PRECIP UNDER THIS CLOUD SHIELD BUT AM ONLY ANTICIPATING LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF ANY PRECIP DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 15-20 DEGREES. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WAS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO SUBLIMATION OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS SHALLOW SFC INVERSIONS DEVELOP...BUT DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITY OR TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM IT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. SHALLOW SFC INVERSIONS SHOULD BREAK SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING TWD VALUES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STAY ON THE COLD SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS) WITH REMNANT SNOWPACK IN THE AREA. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 20S (NEAR 30 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AREA FALLS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AS MOISTURE STAYS CONFINED TO THE OHIO VALLEY LOW AS WELL AS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE COAST. THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE SE STATES IS ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING PULLED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL BE WELL UNDER WAY... ESPECIALLY AS S-SW WINDS BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO READINGS AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD TREND UPWARD IF THE WINDS INCREASE IN CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW TRACKS INTO THE ERN ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH BALMY LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID-UPPER 40S FAR SE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN AND RECENT SNOWMELT WILL SATURATE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS SFC INVERSIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN...BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID 50S NW AND IN THE LOW-MID 60S SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS RESULTS IN RELAXATION OF THE VERY COLD CONDS THROUGH LT NEXT WK...BUT ALSO INTRODUCES PTNTL INCRSG STORMINESS AND FORECAST CHALLENGES. WHILE A RETURN TO EXTREMELY COLD CONDS NOT XPCD THROUGH BALANCE OF NEXT WK...PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL RMN IN SRN CANADA...WHICH MAY ADD TO ANY STM/PCPN CHALLENGES. AS SFC CDFNT SETTLES S OF THE RGN SUN NGT INTO MON...WK WAVE OF LO PRES TRACKING ALG IT BRINGS CLDS AND CHC PCPN (PSBL LGT MIX ACRS FAR NRN COUNTIES...OTRW RA). DRYING OUT MON NGT INTO TUE. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE RETURNS DURING TUE AS NEXT/COMPLEX STM SYS EJECTS FM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY (TUE)...THEN CONTG TO TRACK TO THE NE WED. MDLS CONTG TO SUGGEST LO LVL CAD AHD OF THAT SYS (PREVENTING ANY QUICK WARMING). SCOURING OUT THE LO LVL CAD ON WED MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FAR INLAND (TEMPS IN THE 40S)...WHILE WARMING OCCURS ELSW (TO THE 50S/60S). ALSO...WILL CONT W/ CHC POPS (RA) AHD OF...AND W/ PASSAGE OF CDFNT (ON WED). COLDER (SEASONABLE)/DRIER WX XPCD THU. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT ORF AND ECG...HOWEVER IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED. FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT THE IMPACTS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A HAZE THAN TRUE FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PCPN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA. THE SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FETCH MAY PRODUCE SEAS OF 5 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TOO WEAK FOR SCA CONDITIONS. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS INDICATE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SCA CONDITIONS. && .CLIMATE... * NORFOLK HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 6 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 10 F IN 1934. THIS IS THE COLDEST READING SINCE IT WAS 5 DEG ON JAN 19, 1994. * ELIZABETH CITY HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 7 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 9 F IN 1934. * SALISBURY HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -6 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS IN 1940. * WALLOPS ISLAND HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 3 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 13 F IN 1986. * RICHMOND HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 4 F THIS MORNING. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY IS -3 F FROM 1940. * WFO WAKEFIELD DROPPED TO -5 F THIS MORNING. THIS IS ONLY THE THIRD TIME THAT AKQ HAS BEEN BELOW ZERO SINCE THE OFFICE OPENED (NEARLY 20 YEARS). OTHER BELOW ZERO READINGS WERE -5 F ON JAN 28, 2000...AND -4 F ON FEB 05, 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...BMD/JDM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...DAP MARINE...DAP/LSA CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
745 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (EXTENDING FROM WELL OFF THE SE COAST TO SRN FLORIDA) AND SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS EVENING... WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO FAR SE VA OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD INSULATE THE ATMOSPHERE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO LIKE EARLY THIS MORNING IN THOSE AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 20S HERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE VERY LIGHT PRECIP UNDER THIS CLOUD SHIELD BUT AM ONLY ANTICIPATING LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF ANY PRECIP DOES OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 15-20 DEGREES. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WAS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO SUBLIMATION OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS SHALLOW SFC INVERSIONS DEVELOP...BUT DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITY OR TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM IT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. SHALLOW SFC INVERSIONS SHOULD BREAK SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING TWD VALUES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STAY ON THE COLD SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS) WITH REMNANT SNOWPACK IN THE AREA. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 20S (NEAR 30 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AREA FALLS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AS MOISTURE STAYS CONFINED TO THE OHIO VALLEY LOW AS WELL AS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE COAST. THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE SE STATES IS ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING PULLED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL BE WELL UNDER WAY... ESPECIALLY AS S-SW WINDS BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO READINGS AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD TREND UPWARD IF THE WINDS INCREASE IN CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW TRACKS INTO THE ERN ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH BALMY LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID-UPPER 40S FAR SE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN AND RECENT SNOWMELT WILL SATURATE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS SFC INVERSIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN...BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID 50S NW AND IN THE LOW-MID 60S SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS RESULTS IN RELAXATION OF THE VERY COLD CONDS THROUGH LT NEXT WK...BUT ALSO INTRODUCES PTNTL INCRSG STORMINESS AND FORECAST CHALLENGES. WHILE A RETURN TO EXTREMELY COLD CONDS NOT XPCD THROUGH BALANCE OF NEXT WK...PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL RMN IN SRN CANADA...WHICH MAY ADD TO ANY STM/PCPN CHALLENGES. AS SFC CDFNT SETTLES S OF THE RGN SUN NGT INTO MON...WK WAVE OF LO PRES TRACKING ALG IT BRINGS CLDS AND CHC PCPN (PSBL LGT MIX ACRS FAR NRN COUNTIES...OTRW RA). DRYING OUT MON NGT INTO TUE. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE RETURNS DURING TUE AS NEXT/COMPLEX STM SYS EJECTS FM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY (TUE)...THEN CONTG TO TRACK TO THE NE WED. MDLS CONTG TO SUGGEST LO LVL CAD AHD OF THAT SYS (PREVENTING ANY QUICK WARMING). SCOURING OUT THE LO LVL CAD ON WED MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FAR INLAND (TEMPS IN THE 40S)...WHILE WARMING OCCURS ELSW (TO THE 50S/60S). ALSO...WILL CONT W/ CHC POPS (RA) AHD OF...AND W/ PASSAGE OF CDFNT (ON WED). COLDER (SEASONABLE)/DRIER WX XPCD THU. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT ORF AND ECG...HOWEVER IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED. FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT THE IMPACTS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A HAZE THAN TRUE FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PCPN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA. THE SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FETCH MAY PRODUCE SEAS OF 5 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TOO WEAK FOR SCA CONDITIONS. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS INDICATE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SCA CONDITIONS. && .CLIMATE... * NORFOLK HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 6 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 10 F IN 1934. THIS IS THE COLDEST READING SINCE IT WAS 5 DEG ON JAN 19, 1994. * ELIZABETH CITY HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 7 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 9 F IN 1934. * SALISBURY HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -6 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS IN 1940. * WALLOPS ISLAND HAS BROKEN A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 3 F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 13 F IN 1986. * RICHMOND HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 4 F THIS MORNING. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY IS -3 F FROM 1940. * WFO WAKEFIELD DROPPED TO -5 F THIS MORNING. THIS IS ONLY THE THIRD TIME THAT AKQ HAS BEEN BELOW ZERO SINCE THE OFFICE OPENED (NEARLY 20 YEARS). OTHER BELOW ZERO READINGS WERE -5 F ON JAN 28, 2000...AND -4 F ON FEB 05, 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM NEAR TERM...BMD/JDM SHORT TERM...BMD/JDM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...DAP/LSA MARINE...LSA CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1235 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 THE COLD WEATHER WILL EASE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 TODAY...THEN INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SNOW WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BUT MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MID DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS NORTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS BY THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 A DECENT AMOUNT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ONGOING AT MIDDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN A CORRIDOR DOWNWIND OF THE LONGEST FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO...FROM HOLLAND AND MUSKEGON TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH GRAND RAPIDS AND IONIA OVER TOWARDS ALMA WE ARE SEEING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. THE HRRR SHOWS THE GUSTS SETTLING DOWN EACH HOUR THOUGH AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY 400PM IT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED DOWN QUITE A BIT...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING GUSTS COMING DOWN UNDER 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. GIVEN THE WIND IS AT ITS PEAK TODAY WILL NOT HOIST ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE FOR THE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY FALLING SNOW AND WE HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 7 MILES ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...IONIA IS AT 3/4 OF A MILE. LOCALLY VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOR AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DOWN WIND OF OPEN FIELDS. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...IN TERMS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL BE LOOKING INTO THIS FURTHER THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THERE WILL STILL BE ISSUES WITH DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS TODAY...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL. THE WIND CHILL WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE EXTENDED BITTER COLD. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT SPARKED THE INCREASED COVERAGE LATE LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED EAST. MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WAVE IS VERY SHALLOW...AND ALONG WITH LIMITED LIFT...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH. OPEN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES WITH A SW WIND GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. IT SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET TONIGHT AS WE WARM ALOFT AND SEE THE LAST OF ANY LAKE EFFECT END. THE ONLY ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF THE BRISK SSW WINDS STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY MID DAY THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT MOVES IN RIGHT AROUND THE EVENING COMMUTE TIME WHEN THE STEADIEST SNOWS SHOULD BE OCCURRING. ON TOP OF THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN THE GUSTY SSW WINDS...MAKING FOR CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THE WINDS DO FINALLY DROP OFF AS THE BAGGY GRADIENT MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH SOME WSW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD PUT DOWN 3 TO 5 INCHES WEST AND NORTH OF GRR...AND GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE EVENT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM ROUGHLY MID THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT CROSS THE CWA...SO HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY SOUTH OF I-96. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE HAVE A SHOT AT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DROPPING SNOW ON SATURDAY AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR 4 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND PROBABLY BEYOND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 THE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WINDS AND RESULTING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AS OF 17Z THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF WIND MOVES OUT. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF INLAND THIS EVENING FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER CORE OF WIND WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP EVERYONE ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z THU AND INCREASE TO 35+ KNOTS BY THEN. VSBYS ARE NOT REALLY BEING IMPACTED PER THE LATEST OBS AROUND THE AREA. KGRR IS REPORTING 4SM WITH BLSN. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY HOW MUCH VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED. WE HAVE TRENDED VSBYS DOWN WITH BLSN IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND THU IN CONCERT WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 2500 FT REMAINS AT THE TERMINALS NORTH OF I-94 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. SOME HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THU...BUT AFTER THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS SET OF FCSTS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 EXTENDED THE SCA AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING INTO TONIGHT. THEN WE SHOULD REACH SSW GALES BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 333 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 NO REAL CHANGES REGARDING HYDRO ISSUES. A FEW SITES ARE SHOWING SOME ICE AFFECTED SPIKES OCCASIONALLY...BUT ALL RIVER GAGING SITES ARE SHOWING FLAT GRAPHS WELL BELOW ADVISORY STAGE. THE ICE IS LOCKED IN AND NOT CHANGING MUCH GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WE ARE GROWING IT. GIVEN THE CONSTANT COLD WEATHER RIVER ICE IS EXPANDING IN DEPTH WHICH MAY BECOME A PROBLEM WHEN WE WARM UP DOWN THE ROAD. THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY RISE WAS ROCKFORD WHICH JUMPED 2 FEET YESTERDAY AND THEN LEVELED OFF. WE ARE MONITORING THAT SPOT...BUT ALL OTHERS ARE STABLE. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849. GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...DUKE SYNOPSIS...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...NJJ HYDROLOGY...DUKE MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 THE COLD WEATHER WILL EASE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 TODAY...THEN INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SNOW WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BUT MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MID DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS NORTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS BY THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 A DECENT AMOUNT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ONGOING AT MIDDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN A CORRIDOR DOWNWIND OF THE LONGEST FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO...FROM HOLLAND AND MUSKEGON TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH GRAND RAPIDS AND IONIA OVER TOWARDS ALMA WE ARE SEEING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. THE HRRR SHOWS THE GUSTS SETTLING DOWN EACH HOUR THOUGH AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY 400PM IT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED DOWN QUITE A BIT...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING GUSTS COMING DOWN UNDER 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. GIVEN THE WIND IS AT ITS PEAK TODAY WILL NOT HOIST ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE FOR THE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY FALLING SNOW AND WE HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 7 MILES ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...IONIA IS AT 3/4 OF A MILE. LOCALLY VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOR AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DOWN WIND OF OPEN FIELDS. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...IN TERMS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL BE LOOKING INTO THIS FURTHER THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THERE WILL STILL BE ISSUES WITH DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS TODAY...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL. THE WIND CHILL WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE EXTENDED BITTER COLD. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT SPARKED THE INCREASED COVERAGE LATE LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED EAST. MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WAVE IS VERY SHALLOW...AND ALONG WITH LIMITED LIFT...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH. OPEN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES WITH A SW WIND GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. IT SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET TONIGHT AS WE WARM ALOFT AND SEE THE LAST OF ANY LAKE EFFECT END. THE ONLY ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF THE BRISK SSW WINDS STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY MID DAY THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT MOVES IN RIGHT AROUND THE EVENING COMMUTE TIME WHEN THE STEADIEST SNOWS SHOULD BE OCCURRING. ON TOP OF THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN THE GUSTY SSW WINDS...MAKING FOR CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THE WINDS DO FINALLY DROP OFF AS THE BAGGY GRADIENT MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH SOME WSW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD PUT DOWN 3 TO 5 INCHES WEST AND NORTH OF GRR...AND GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE EVENT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM ROUGHLY MID THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT CROSS THE CWA...SO HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY SOUTH OF I-96. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE HAVE A SHOT AT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DROPPING SNOW ON SATURDAY AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR 4 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND PROBABLY BEYOND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO FLURRIES AND DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WEST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING GOING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 EXTENDED THE SCA AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING INTO TONIGHT. THEN WE SHOULD REACH SSW GALES BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 333 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 NO REAL CHANGES REGARDING HYDRO ISSUES. A FEW SITES ARE SHOWING SOME ICE AFFECTED SPIKES OCCASIONALLY...BUT ALL RIVER GAGING SITES ARE SHOWING FLAT GRAPHS WELL BELOW ADVISORY STAGE. THE ICE IS LOCKED IN AND NOT CHANGING MUCH GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WE ARE GROWING IT. GIVEN THE CONSTANT COLD WEATHER RIVER ICE IS EXPANDING IN DEPTH WHICH MAY BECOME A PROBLEM WHEN WE WARM UP DOWN THE ROAD. THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY RISE WAS ROCKFORD WHICH JUMPED 2 FEET YESTERDAY AND THEN LEVELED OFF. WE ARE MONITORING THAT SPOT...BUT ALL OTHERS ARE STABLE. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849. GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...DUKE SYNOPSIS...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...OSTUNO HYDROLOGY...DUKE MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
318 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH A BROAD DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NAMERICA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE AROUND -25C...LES CONTINUES OFF MAINLY NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A W-WSW WIND FLOW WHERE VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF OPEN WATER. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE ICE-COVERED EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A NARROW PORTION JUST WEST OF THE KEWEENAW ALTHOUGH WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN FM NRN ONTARIO MAKING IT HARDER TO DISCERN ICE COVERAGE OVER WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KCMX HAS REPORTED OCCASIONAL VSBY OF 1/2SM OR LOWER...VSBY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW BASED ON WEBCAMS. THUS...DECIDED TO CANCEL LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY ON MORNING UPDATE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN UP TO NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AS NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WIND CHILLS AT KCMX ARE STILL SOLIDLY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY (-30F OR LOWER) WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25F HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS. AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE ADDING BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES...SO COUNTIES FROM BARAGA AND IRON WESTWARD WILL BE IN ADVISORIES THROUGH 16Z WED. PORTIONS OF WRN MQT COUNTY COULD REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT BUT MOST OF THE COUNTY SHOULD STAY ABV -25F SO DECIDED AGAINST HEADLINE THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE OR JUST ABV ADVISORY CRITERIA. COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT A BIG FALL IN TEMPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SW CWA NEAR THE WI BDR WHERE LOWS COULD APPROACH -12F IN A FEW SPOTS. RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FROM THE RECENT BELOW ZERO HIGHS...NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. OUR STREAK OF DAYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONTINUES...WITH TODAY BEING THE 54TH DAY IN A ROW. LOOKING AT LONG TERM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE DATA...NONE OF THE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND ONLY A RUN OR TWO NEAR DAY 15. THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WE WILL BE NEARING THE RECORD OF 72 DAYS (SET IN 1978-1979) WHEN WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z THURSDAY AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO JAMES BAY BY 18Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND DEPART THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT (WHICH AFFECTS MUCH OF THE U.P.) WILL BE A LITTLE MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY NEAR EACH OTHER THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING OVER THE WEST HALF...BUT IF THE INTENSITY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (MUCH OF THE FORCING/CLOUD IN THE DGZ). BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P. AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -16C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH ICE COVER BUILDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT THAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND LOW END DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE GFS IS STARTING TO COME AROUND TO IT. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE SLIGHT POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERLY WIND BELTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 VERY COLD AIR AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT KCMX...FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS...THROUGH WED MORNING. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VSBY BLO AIRFIELD MINIMUMS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER AT SAW OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BLO VFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 314 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. INITIAL GALES TO 40KTS WILL LINGER INTO MID MONRNING E...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS CENTRAL EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL DRIFT E...WHILE BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. A LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TRACKS W-E ACROSS ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A TROUGH ACROSS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT S-SW GALES TO 40KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE E HALF. ANOTHER HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SE FROM ALBERTA TO THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE KEEPING A WEAK RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THEN ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001>004-009-010-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001- 003. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1206 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH A BROAD DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NAMERICA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE AROUND -25C...LES CONTINUES OFF MAINLY NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A W-WSW WIND FLOW WHERE VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF OPEN WATER. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE ICE-COVERED EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A NARROW PORTION JUST WEST OF THE KEWEENAW ALTHOUGH WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN FM NRN ONTARIO MAKING IT HARDER TO DISCERN ICE COVERAGE OVER WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KCMX HAS REPORTED OCCASIONAL VSBY OF 1/2SM OR LOWER...VSBY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW BASED ON WEBCAMS. THUS...DECIDED TO CANCEL LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY ON MORNING UPDATE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN UP TO NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AS NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WIND CHILLS AT KCMX ARE STILL SOLIDLY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY (-30F OR LOWER) WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25F HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS. AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE ADDING BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES...SO COUNTIES FROM BARAGA AND IRON WESTWARD WILL BE IN ADVISORIES THROUGH 16Z WED. PORTIONS OF WRN MQT COUNTY COULD REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT BUT MOST OF THE COUNTY SHOULD STAY ABV -25F SO DECIDED AGAINST HEADLINE THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE OR JUST ABV ADVISORY CRITERIA. COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT A BIG FALL IN TEMPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SW CWA NEAR THE WI BDR WHERE LOWS COULD APPROACH -12F IN A FEW SPOTS. RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FROM THE RECENT BELOW ZERO HIGHS...NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. OUR STREAK OF DAYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONTINUES...WITH TODAY BEING THE 54TH DAY IN A ROW. LOOKING AT LONG TERM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE DATA...NONE OF THE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND ONLY A RUN OR TWO NEAR DAY 15. THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WE WILL BE NEARING THE RECORD OF 72 DAYS (SET IN 1978-1979) WHEN WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z THURSDAY AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO JAMES BAY BY 18Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND DEPART THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT (WHICH AFFECTS MUCH OF THE U.P.) WILL BE A LITTLE MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY NEAR EACH OTHER THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING OVER THE WEST HALF...BUT IF THE INTENSITY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (MUCH OF THE FORCING/CLOUD IN THE DGZ). BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P. AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -16C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH ICE COVER BUILDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT THAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND LOW END DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE GFS IS STARTING TO COME AROUND TO IT. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE SLIGHT POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERLY WIND BELTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 VERY COLD AIR AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT KCMX...FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS...THROUGH WED MORNING. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VSBY BLO AIRFIELD MINIMUMS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER AT SAW OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BLO VFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. EXPECT WSW GALES TO 40 KTS OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS AGAIN SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE E. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001>004-009-010-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001- 003. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-263- 264. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .UPDATE... 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SLIGHTLY EXTENDED SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SNOW MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE ROBUST. OUR PRIMARY SUSPECT IN THIS CASE CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H4-H3 PV ANALYSIS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE WASH/BC BORDER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME IN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT SURROUNDING AROUND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. AS FOR THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...MODELS SIMILAR WITH SHOWING THE WASH/BC PV FEATURE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THURSDAY MORNING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK HEADING FOR IOWA...SO WE WILL BE ADDING LEFT EXIT DYNAMICS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING. AT THE SFC...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ALBERTA WILL HAVE FOUND ITS WAY INTO NRN IOWA AND UP INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. OF MICH BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER FORCING CATCHES UP WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY...WE SEE A GOOD AREA OF LIFT BLOSSOM ALONG THE 295K THETA AS WARM AIR GETS PULLED UP AND OVER THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THE 295K SFC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT THE BEST FORCING IS CENTERED DOWN ALONG THE IA BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 15Z. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE PV FEATURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS. TO NO SURPRISE... SRN MN...BETWEEN ABOUT ST. PETER AND THE IA BORDER IS WHERE ALL MODELS SHOW THE MOST QPF FALLING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF QPF FALLING DOWN THERE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL SREF MEMBERS SHOW OVER A HALF INCH OF QPF FALLING IN THIS AREA AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWS /6 INCHES/ DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE 29.03 SREF IS UP OVER 60 PERCENT DOWN BETWEEN ST. PETER AND IA. WHAT WAS DONE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO BOOST POPS EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND USED A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR QPF. THIS RESULTED AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW DOWN IN SRN MN...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES UP IN THE METRO THAT WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING RUSH ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CERTAINLY SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH HERE WILL NOT CAUSE AS MANY PROBLEMS AS THE 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EVENING RUSH IN ATLANTA DID YESTERDAY. WE DID HAVE SOME HEALTHY DISCUSSION THIS MORNING WITH DMX AND ARX ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVY FOR THIS EVENT FOR A FEW REASONS. NUMBER ONE...TIMING WISE THIS WILL IMPACT MORNING DRIVES INTO WORK/SCHOOL. IN ADDITION...IF WE DO END UP SEEING SNOWFALL TOTALS UP CLOSER TO THE 5 INCH MARK...THEN THAT MEANS WE WOULD BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES UP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR. FINALLY...ON THE BACK END OF THE SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MEANING THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONCERNS AS WELL. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH AS TO JUST HOW MUCH QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW THIS WILL PRODUCE...AS A RESULT WE DECIDED THAT THERE WAS ENOUGH TIME WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET ONE MORE LOOK AT MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 PAST THURSDAY/S SYSTEM...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHGS SOME. THE MAIN CHG IS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH A MORE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FOR MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS ANOTHER CHG RELATED TO THE UPPER JET WHICH HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN JET COMPARED TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION QUIET. ALTHOUGH TWO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK...THIS IS MAINLY REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. AS PER THE STRONGER SOUTHERN JET TAKING PLACE THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOKING AT NORMALIZED ANOMALY EXTREMES OFF THE GEFS FOR 92/85/70H TEMPS...NO BIG COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED WITH ONLY THE TEMPORARY TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BLW ZERO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ABV ZERO. THIS IS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEKS. IF YOU COMPARE THESE EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY WHERE TEMPS FELL TO -23 AT MSP...THESE EXTREME VALUES WERE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. NEXT WEEK THESE EXTREME VALUES ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL REMAIN ON TRACK TO BEGIN GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY CLIMBED AS EXPECTED...AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MOST HEAVILY IMPACTING THE TC METRO AND AREAS SOUTH TO THE IOWA BORDER. TERMINALS IN THIS REGION CAN GENERALLY EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...PRIMARILY COMING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW. CIGS WILL LIKELY TO DROP TO LIFR FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME PERIOD. STC AND AXN REMAIN A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TO BE AS HEAVILY IMPACTED...AND WILL SEE LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS AND BETTER OVERALL CIGS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE INCOMING FRONT. THE SNOW WILL END BY ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY AND VFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY RETURN UNDER CAA AND CLEARING SKIES WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS. KMSP...1230Z TO 1500Z LOOKS TO BE LIFR WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY HAS INCREASED OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS INCOMING SNOW. DO EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN TO BELOW 1K FT DURING THIS PERIOD. TOMORROW AFTN WILL SEE MAJOR IMPROVEMENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS. TURNING COLD. FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5KTS EARLY BCMG NW AT 10G15KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
536 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .UPDATE... 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SLIGHTLY EXTENDED SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SNOW MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE ROBUST. OUR PRIMARY SUSPECT IN THIS CASE CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H4-H3 PV ANALYSIS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE WASH/BC BORDER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME IN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT SURROUNDING AROUND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. AS FOR THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...MODELS SIMILAR WITH SHOWING THE WASH/BC PV FEATURE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THURSDAY MORNING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK HEADING FOR IOWA...SO WE WILL BE ADDING LEFT EXIT DYNAMICS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING. AT THE SFC...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ALBERTA WILL HAVE FOUND ITS WAY INTO NRN IOWA AND UP INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. OF MICH BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER FORCING CATCHES UP WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY...WE SEE A GOOD AREA OF LIFT BLOSSOM ALONG THE 295K THETA AS WARM AIR GETS PULLED UP AND OVER THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THE 295K SFC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT THE BEST FORCING IS CENTERED DOWN ALONG THE IA BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 15Z. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE PV FEATURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS. TO NO SURPRISE... SRN MN...BETWEEN ABOUT ST. PETER AND THE IA BORDER IS WHERE ALL MODELS SHOW THE MOST QPF FALLING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF QPF FALLING DOWN THERE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL SREF MEMBERS SHOW OVER A HALF INCH OF QPF FALLING IN THIS AREA AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWS /6 INCHES/ DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE 29.03 SREF IS UP OVER 60 PERCENT DOWN BETWEEN ST. PETER AND IA. WHAT WAS DONE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO BOOST POPS EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND USED A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR QPF. THIS RESULTED AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW DOWN IN SRN MN...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES UP IN THE METRO THAT WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING RUSH ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CERTAINLY SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH HERE WILL NOT CAUSE AS MANY PROBLEMS AS THE 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EVENING RUSH IN ATLANTA DID YESTERDAY. WE DID HAVE SOME HEALTHY DISCUSSION THIS MORNING WITH DMX AND ARX ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVY FOR THIS EVENT FOR A FEW REASONS. NUMBER ONE...TIMING WISE THIS WILL IMPACT MORNING DRIVES INTO WORK/SCHOOL. IN ADDITION...IF WE DO END UP SEEING SNOWFALL TOTALS UP CLOSER TO THE 5 INCH MARK...THEN THAT MEANS WE WOULD BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES UP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR. FINALLY...ON THE BACK END OF THE SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MEANING THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONCERNS AS WELL. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH AS TO JUST HOW MUCH QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW THIS WILL PRODUCE...AS A RESULT WE DECIDED THAT THERE WAS ENOUGH TIME WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET ONE MORE LOOK AT MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 PAST THURSDAY/S SYSTEM...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHGS SOME. THE MAIN CHG IS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH A MORE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FOR MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS ANOTHER CHG RELATED TO THE UPPER JET WHICH HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN JET COMPARED TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION QUIET. ALTHOUGH TWO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK...THIS IS MAINLY REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. AS PER THE STRONGER SOUTHERN JET TAKING PLACE THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOKING AT NORMALIZED ANOMALY EXTREMES OFF THE GEFS FOR 92/85/70H TEMPS...NO BIG COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED WITH ONLY THE TEMPORARY TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BLW ZERO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ABV ZERO. THIS IS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEKS. IF YOU COMPARE THESE EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY WHERE TEMPS FELL TO -23 AT MSP...THESE EXTREME VALUES WERE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. NEXT WEEK THESE EXTREME VALUES ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE SPENT WITH VFR CONDS AND INCREASING SW WINDS AS THE REGION SITS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND ACROSS MN AND INTO WI OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER...SNOW WILL START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. FOR THE SNOW...USED TIMING FROM THE SREF/NAM TO BRING SNOW IN TO TERMINALS. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO IF DRY AIR CAN BE OVERCOME AT AXN AND STC FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUGH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REST OF TERMINALS SEEING SNOW. THIS WILL BE A QUICK HITTER...THOUGH HEAVY BURST OF SNOW. SNOW DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST MUCH MORE THAN 6 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR FOR ABOUT 3 OF THOSE HOURS. KMSP...SNOW COMING IN THU MORNING LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. ONCE IT DOES MOVE IN...SHOULD WASTE NO TIME IN GETTING IFR VSBYS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR MSP...MOST OF THIS TIMED PERFECTLY WITH THE MORNING PUSH WITH RATES IN THE 3/4 INCH PER HOUR RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. FROPA WILL COME IN THE 8-10Z PERIOD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY TURNING TO THE NW IN ITS WAKE. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...BCMG VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS. FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5KTS EARLY BCMG NW AT 10G15KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045- 047>053-055>063-065>070-075>078-083>085-093. WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016- 023>028. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SLIGHTLY EXTENDED SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SNOW MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE ROBUST. OUR PRIMARY SUSPECT IN THIS CASE CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H4-H3 PV ANALYSIS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE WASH/BC BORDER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME IN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT SURROUNDING AROUND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. AS FOR THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...MODELS SIMILAR WITH SHOWING THE WASH/BC PV FEATURE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THURSDAY MORNING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK HEADING FOR IOWA...SO WE WILL BE ADDING LEFT EXIT DYNAMICS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING. AT THE SFC...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ALBERTA WILL HAVE FOUND ITS WAY INTO NRN IOWA AND UP INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. OF MICH BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER FORCING CATCHES UP WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY...WE SEE A GOOD AREA OF LIFT BLOSSOM ALONG THE 295K THETA AS WARM AIR GETS PULLED UP AND OVER THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THE 295K SFC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT THE BEST FORCING IS CENTERED DOWN ALONG THE IA BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 15Z. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE PV FEATURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS. TO NO SURPRISE... SRN MN...BETWEEN ABOUT ST. PETER AND THE IA BORDER IS WHERE ALL MODELS SHOW THE MOST QPF FALLING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF QPF FALLING DOWN THERE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL SREF MEMBERS SHOW OVER A HALF INCH OF QPF FALLING IN THIS AREA AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWS /6 INCHES/ DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE 29.03 SREF IS UP OVER 60 PERCENT DOWN BETWEEN ST. PETER AND IA. WHAT WAS DONE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO BOOST POPS EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND USED A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR QPF. THIS RESULTED AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW DOWN IN SRN MN...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES UP IN THE METRO THAT WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING RUSH ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CERTAINLY SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH HERE WILL NOT CAUSE AS MANY PROBLEMS AS THE 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EVENING RUSH IN ATLANTA DID YESTERDAY. WE DID HAVE SOME HEALTHY DISCUSSION THIS MORNING WITH DMX AND ARX ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVY FOR THIS EVENT FOR A FEW REASONS. NUMBER ONE...TIMING WISE THIS WILL IMPACT MORNING DRIVES INTO WORK/SCHOOL. IN ADDITION...IF WE DO END UP SEEING SNOWFALL TOTALS UP CLOSER TO THE 5 INCH MARK...THEN THAT MEANS WE WOULD BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES UP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR. FINALLY...ON THE BACK END OF THE SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MEANING THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONCERNS AS WELL. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH AS TO JUST HOW MUCH QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW THIS WILL PRODUCE...AS A RESULT WE DECIDED THAT THERE WAS ENOUGH TIME WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET ONE MORE LOOK AT MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 PAST THURSDAY/S SYSTEM...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHGS SOME. THE MAIN CHG IS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH A MORE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FOR MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS ANOTHER CHG RELATED TO THE UPPER JET WHICH HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN JET COMPARED TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION QUIET. ALTHOUGH TWO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK...THIS IS MAINLY REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. AS PER THE STRONGER SOUTHERN JET TAKING PLACE THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOKING AT NORMALIZED ANOMALY EXTREMES OFF THE GEFS FOR 92/85/70H TEMPS...NO BIG COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED WITH ONLY THE TEMPORARY TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BLW ZERO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ABV ZERO. THIS IS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEKS. IF YOU COMPARE THESE EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY WHERE TEMPS FELL TO -23 AT MSP...THESE EXTREME VALUES WERE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. NEXT WEEK THESE EXTREME VALUES ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014 CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL FILL WITH HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SNOW PUSHING INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AND GUST TO 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KMSP...LITTLE CONCERNS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF WHEN SNOW BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR/-SN WITH IFR/LIFR AND SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS. FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS W BECOMING NW AT 10G15KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045- 047>053-055>063-065>070-075>078-083>085-093. WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016- 023>028. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
928 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2014 .UPDATE: Issued at 913 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2014 Quick update to adjust POPs overnight based on latest guidance. Main change was to shift higher POPs further to the S based on latest RAP trends. The RAP and HRRR suggest a brief, quick shot of SN late tonight into Fri morning along and just N of I70 as a weak s/w passes thru the region. These mdls quickly have this area of precip moving thru the region with forcing diminishing. However, confidence in precip waning during this period is somewhat low as lower level forcing shud be increasing during the morning hours. That said, precip intensity shud be less than what these areas shud see Fri evening into Sat. With only the 00z NAM in so far, POPs for Fri afternoon may need to be increased across SE and E central MO, perhaps into SW IL. However, will allow the next shift to analyze all of the 00z guidance and latest sat and RADAR trends and adjust as needed. Tilly && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2014 The fcst for late this aftn and tonight was in pretty good order until the Quincy arpt reported snow earlier this aftn. Have had to increase POPs for late this aftn and early evening and added a few tenths of an inch of snow. This band should work east thru the evening and be in e cntrl IL by midnight. This band of precip is due to frontogenesis assoc with an approaching cold front. The front is fcst to push thru the CWA overnight and then get hung up across SE MO and sthrn IL on Friday. A band of WAA snow should begin to move into NE MO prior to 12Z. There is some question as to how far east this precip will make it prior to 12Z. Current thinking is it should make it to at least the MS R with a dusting expected by sunrise. Precip should be all snow overnight. There could be some -FZDZ in cntrl MO prior to 12Z...but best chances are later in the mrng. 2% .LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2014 (Friday through Sunday) This is a messy forecast, with the low to mid level thermal gradient draped across the area for the entire event. The forecast is likely to change again as we move through Friday into Friday night and Saturday. First wave of wintry precip should begin Friday morning. Cyclogenesis over the southwest Plains will cause the low level jet to ramp up over the area. The primary baroclinic zone looks to be over Oklahoma so the lift will be relatively weak. Forecast soundings and critical thickness forecasts show there may be a variety of precip types along and south of the I-70 corridor, but it should be cold enough for all snow up in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Precipitation up there may be further enhanced by a pasing vortmax and divergence aloft from the increasing upper level jet. Areas/patches of very light snow or freezing drizzle will be likely further south with warming temperatures in the warm advection turning the precip to a mostly rain or snow mix during the afternoon. Low level warm advection continues Friday night, but with increasing mid and upper level support. Should see precipitation intensity increase during the evening as a wave forms on the front and frontogenesis increases over the region. The upper level jet streak will also continue to increase aiding in lift. Current indications are that there will be a band of snow across northern portions of the CWFA as the low level wave travels northeast along the baroclinic zone. Further south, primarily warm advection precip will continue Saturday ahead of the front as it oozes south. Primary concern for areas along and south of I-70 will be a sleet/freezing rain mix due to the shallow nature of the cold air. Precipitation should be ending by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Am issuing a winter weather advisory for parts of central Missouri beginning at 12Z Friday morning and continuing until the precip ends Saturday afternoon...primarily for the potential of light glazing with the freezing drizzle, and then the mixed precip Friday night into Saturday. For northeast Missouri and west central Illinois will likewise issue an advisory for the snow. Am holding off at this time for areas further east and south due to the uncertainty of start times and precip types. Carney (Sunday night through Thursday night) It appears that the precipitation will shift s-se of our forecast area by Sunday night as a surface ridge builds sewd into the area. Temperatures will be quite cold, especially across nern MO and w cntrl IL with the models forecasting 850 mb temperatures of -7 to -10 C across this area Sunday night. Will see warmer temperatures Monday and Monday night as the surface/850 mb ridge shifts east of our area and the surface/low level winds become sely/sly. The next round of precipitation should spread ewd into at least the wrn half of our forecast area late Monday ngt as a sly low level jet brings fairly strong low level waa and increasing moisture into the region ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Both the ECMWF and GFS models have precipitation across the entire forecast area on Tuesday with the 850 mb low tracking newd through sern MO and srn IL Tuesday aftn and evng, and the surface low moving newd through wrn portions of TN and KY Tuesday aftn and evng. The models were also depicting relatively strong upper level divergence on Tuesday over our area ahead of the approaching upper level trough. The ECMWF model is a little cooler than the GFS model. The precipitation type should be all snow north and west of STL, but a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain south and east of STL based on the 850 mb temperature and partial thickness forecasts. The waa, warm conveyor type precipitation should shift east of our area Tuesday night with a dry slot moving newd into sern MO and swrn IL, but deformation zone snow should impact mainly nern MO and w cntrl IL Tuesday night based on the current forecast track of this winter storm system. The snow should taper off to flurries on Wednesday as the upper level trough shifts east of our area, and a strong surface ridge builds sewd into the region. Although there is still a lot of uncertainty as to the exact track of the storm system, it currently appears that the highest snowfall amounts will occur across nern MO and w cntrl IL, north and west of STL where the precipitation type will be all snow and the snowfall duration will be the longest due to the first wave of waa snows late Monday night and Tuesday followed by the deformation snows Tuesday night. Very cold air will filter sewd into the region on Wednesday, and this coupled with new snow on the ground across most of the forecast area will lead to unseasonably cold temperatures for Wednesday through Thursday night. GKS && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2014 VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru tonight and for at least much of Friday morning. A cold front is working its way thru the UIN-COU axis now and should complete these two sites early this evening with it then moving thru STL metro sites around midnight. Pcpn looks very spotty at best with this front and too lo probability to place in TAFs. A much better chance for pcpn will occur late Friday morning for UIN as broader scale lift commences north of the now stalled front south of STL metro. Pcpn- type should initially be snow for all TAF sites and be primarily for UIN, but there is decent evidence of a short-lived but likely occurrence of pcpn for COU and the STL metro sites Friday afternoon. A brief intermission in the pcpn expected late on Friday but should get going again during Friday evening but will mainly be for UIN once again, but COU and STL metro likely to get in on the act as well. Deteriorating conditions can then be expected during the day on Friday going from VFR to IFR at all sites. Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions expected thru at least midday Friday before deteriorating conditions to IFR, especially by Friday evening. In the meantime, a cold front still expected for around midnight to shift winds out of the NW and continue veering to NE overnight and E on Friday. A brief shot of pcpn is likely on late Friday afternoon, as predominantly snow, but as it intermittently continues into Friday night, will transition to sleet, then into liquid. The liquid phase for later Friday night will be a very fine line between FZRA and RA with sfc temps expected to be around 32F. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO- Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
903 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 903 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ONE JET SEGMENT WAS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE HAD 40 TO 90 METER HEIGHT FALLS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SE COLORADO...AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THAT...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE EXITING WAVE HAD ALLOWED SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS GENERALLY BETWEEN I70 AND I80. MEANWHILE...FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED MOISTURE AT H85...IT REMAINS QUITE DRY ABOVE THAT. IT`S THIS DRY AIR THAT WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP DO TRY TO TO DEVELOP THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EAST SOUTHEAST...BUT LOSING A FIGHTING BATTLE AGAINST THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. BELIEVE THE HEAVIER SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN NE/KS BORDER REGION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. NEW 00Z NAM ALSO SUPPORTS THIS TREND WITH BEST POPS POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO NEBRASKA CITY TO RED OAK IOWA WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE... TAPERING TO JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW FURTHER NORTH FROM NORFOLK EAST SOUTHEAST TO OMAHA...AND NOTHING FURTHER NORTH OF THAT. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL CA. THIS WAVE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 120 KT H25 JET AND A 110 M H5 HEIGHT FALL AT KOAK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK EWD THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. LEAD SHORT WAVE THROUGH...NOW OVER WI HAS ALLOWED FOR A STRONG MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH +4 C AT KDDC TO -12 C AT KABR. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE FLOW INTO THIS GRADIENT AND CREATE AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INITIALLY OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST NEB/NW KS THIS EVENING. CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS INDICATE FAIRLY WEAK STATIC STABILITY IN THIS AREA WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES AROUND 1-2. THIS FRONTAL BAND WILL LIFT NEWD LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT THIS BAND WILL BE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND AS IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY REACHING OMA BY DAY BREAK...BUT LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER THAT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT TO THE PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED BY THE DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE SOME -SN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN. WE STILL GENERALLY EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIP FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH ABOUT 06Z SAT AS THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...AND BEFORE FORCING FROM THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED ON GLOBAL MODELS AND WE STRONGLY PREFER THE GFS/EC/GEM OVER THE WEAKER MORE SUPPRESSED NAM. THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN ACT TO INCREASE THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER UVV WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE WEAKER STABILITY INDICATED ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES EVEN NEGATIVE JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/NEB BORDER. DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO HAVE LESS OF A NEGATIVE EFFECT DURING THIS SYSTEM AND THE GFS/EC INDICATE AROUND 3-4 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY TO WORK WITH FRI NIGHT. COBB OUTPUT AND THERMAL PROFILES FROM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS OF 11-13. THUS WE FEEL 1-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG I-80 AND 2-4 IN THE FAR SOUTH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LESS AMOUNTS...GENERALLY UNDER AND INCH IN THE NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WINDS DURING THE TIME OF SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SAT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. WITHOUT FALLING SNOW THE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO CAUSE MANY ISSUES...BUT WE WILL SEE COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED GOING LOWS...BUT ACTUAL LOWS WILL DEPEND ON IF SKIES ARE CLEAR UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH OR NOT WITH SOME TEMPS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER OUR REGION TO SUPPORT LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BRING FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. WITH CONTINUED UPPER SUPPORT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET TO BE WORKED OUT AS THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS OUT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WELL SOUTH OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK LIKE IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW AS LONG AS DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH DOESN`T WIN. A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A 1040MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH THIS COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 518 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AT KLNK BY 08-11Z...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 20-21Z BEFORE IT ENDS. SNOW CHANCES AT KOMA/KOFK INCREASE BY 11-13Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT`S LESS OF A CERTAINTY AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS DUE TO A DRY PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. SNOW FORECAST UP TO AN INCH AT KOMA...LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH AT KOFK...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES AT KLNK. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO DEVELOP ONCE THE SNOW ARRIVES. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DEWALD SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NO ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT A MOSAIC OF 88D RADARS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...PCPN COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOME SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN ACTIVITY LIES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD TO AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THE 0 TO 6KM LAYER MAX WET-BULB TEMP FROM THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST IDEA WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE FOR ALL SNOW AND THE WINTRY MIX RESIDES WITH SFC OBS FROM ACROSS THE FA CONFIRMING. GOING WITH THIS IDEA...LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT WX TYPE FOR THE ILM CWA BY DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME SNOW BANDING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AT THE MOMENT. THE QUESTION NOW RESIDES IS WHETHER THE REMAINING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER UP A SNOW-BURST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA BEFORE IT ALL FINALLY COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS LIKE WILL COVER IT. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...UP TO 4 INCHES...REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND DO NOT SEE MUCH MELTING TO OCCUR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ROADWAYS THAT ARE TREATED BY YOUR LOCAL AND STATE DOT. BUT EVEN THESE TREATED AREAS MAY FREEZE BACK UP TONIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT WINTER STORM THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE OF THE NORM...MOST WANT TO KNOW ABOUT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE SHORT ANSWER FOR MOST PLACES IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MID TO UPPER 30S THE MELTING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE WELL OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FLUNG TOWARDS THE COAST YIELDING A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND THEY MAY HAVE SOME DIURNAL VARIATION IN PTYPE...BUT WITH SUCH DRY MID LEVELS THEY SHOULD ALSO BE TRACE AMOUNTS IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE SNOWPACK/SLEET SHEET COMFORTABLY IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD KEEP NC COASTAL COUNTIES FROM GROWING AS COLD AS OTHER REGIONS...STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. IT SEEMS MORE LIKE FRIDAY THAT WE HAVE TO LOOK TO FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT...IF NOT TOTAL MELTING OF THE SNOW AND ICE AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM UP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50. MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH SOLAR INSOLATION GOING TO MELTING FOR PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF HIGH OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A WARMUP. MID LEVEL RIDGE ALSO OFFSHORE GIVING A WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE OTHERWISE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND THIS COULD YIELD SOME DEEPER MOISTURE FLUX BUT STILL FEEL SATURDAY REMAINS DRY IN THE ABSENCE OF LIFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND PROBABLY ONLY SLOWLY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AT A VERY GRADUAL PACE. NO ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND SO TEMPERATURES MERELY GET KNOCKED DOWN FROM THE WEEKEND WARMTH BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...AS WINTRY PRECIP TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WINTRY PRECIP...MAINLY -SN/-PL...WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...WITH -SNPL CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT KFLO...AND -SN AT KILM/KCRE. GIVEN LIGHT INTENSITY DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ATTM...BUT COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PATCH. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF LOW CIGS WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS...NORTH WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL INLAND...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY. WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATE TODAY. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS BREACHING GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED ACROSS THE ILM WATERS TODAY...THEN RELAX ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO DROP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH MAINLY A NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...SIGNIFICANT SEA GROWTH IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DUE TO THE LIMITED FETCH FROM THIS OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION. THE SEAS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING ROUGHLY IN THE 4 TO 8 FOOT RANGE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO WHERE SCEC HEADLINES ARE NEEDED DUE TO 5 FT SEAS ON THURSDAY. THE WATERS WILL FIND THEMSELVES BETWEEN STRONG AREA OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A WAVE MOVING UP ARCTIC BOUNDARY A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE. THE OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE WAVE SHADOWING HOWEVER AND THE 5 FT SEAS MAY NOT TAKE UP ENOUGH OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO WARRANT THE HEADLINES...USUALLY RESERVED FOR A 4 TO 5 FT FCST. THE WAVE SHADOWING IN OTHER WORDS WILL FAVOR 3 TO 5 FT. THE EXIT OF THE WAVE AND THE INCREASED PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH BY FRIDAY WILL DECREASE AND BACK THE WINDS AND ALLOW SEAS TO EASE MAINLY IN THE PREVIOUSLY STIRRED UP OUTER REACHES OF THE 20 NM FCST ZONES. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE ARCTIC HIGH APPEARS TO WASH OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE MAIN CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WELL EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS THE WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY BUT VERY SLOWLY AND THE DAYTIME CHANGE IN WIND/SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL. BOTH SHOULD RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017- 023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087- 096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
516 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NO ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT A MOSAIC OF 88D RADARS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...PCPN COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOME SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN ACTIVITY LIES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD TO AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THE 0 TO 6KM LAYER MAX WET-BULB TEMP FROM THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST IDEA WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE FOR ALL SNOW AND THE WINTRY MIX RESIDES WITH SFC OBS FROM ACROSS THE FA CONFIRMING. GOING WITH THIS IDEA...LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT WX TYPE FOR THE ILM CWA BY DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME SNOW BANDING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AT THE MOMENT. THE QUESTION NOW RESIDES IS WHETHER THE REMAINING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER UP A SNOW-BURST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA BEFORE IT ALL FINALLY COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS LIKE WILL COVER IT. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...UP TO 4 INCHES...REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND DO NOT SEE MUCH MELTING TO OCCUR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ROADWAYS THAT ARE TREATED BY YOUR LOCAL AND STATE DOT. BUT EVEN THESE TREATED AREAS MAY FREEZE BACK UP TONIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT WINTER STORM THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE OF THE NORM...MOST WANT TO KNOW ABOUT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE SHORT ANSWER FOR MOST PLACES IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MID TO UPPER 30S THE MELTING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE WELL OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FLUNG TOWARDS THE COAST YIELDING A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND THEY MAY HAVE SOME DIURNAL VARIATION IN PTYPE...BUT WITH SUCH DRY MID LEVELS THEY SHOULD ALSO BE TRACE AMOUNTS IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE SNOWPACK/SLEET SHEET COMFORTABLY IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD KEEP NC COASTAL COUNTIES FROM GROWING AS COLD AS OTHER REGIONS...STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. IT SEEMS MORE LIKE FRIDAY THAT WE HAVE TO LOOK TO FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT...IF NOT TOTAL MELTING OF THE SNOW AND ICE AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM UP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50. MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH SOLAR INSOLATION GOING TO MELTING FOR PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF HIGH OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A WARMUP. MID LEVEL RIDGE ALSO OFFSHORE GIVING A WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE OTHERWISE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND THIS COULD YIELD SOME DEEPER MOISTURE FLUX BUT STILL FEEL SATURDAY REMAINS DRY IN THE ABSENCE OF LIFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND PROBABLY ONLY SLOWLY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AT A VERY GRADUAL PACE. NO ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND SO TEMPERATURES MERELY GET KNOCKED DOWN FROM THE WEEKEND WARMTH BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...RADAR...SURFACE OBS AND PUBLIC REPORTS INDICATE SNOW IS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AT KLBT/KFLO...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT -SN TO CONTINUE AT KLBT AND KFLO THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER AREAS OF SNOW. SLEET WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A BRIEF SLEET/SNOW MIX AT KILM...KCRE AND KMYR BY 12Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS IN MODERATE SLEET/SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ALONG THE COAST BY 15Z OR SO. NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT. VFR WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES BY 00Z THURSDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY. WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATE TODAY. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS BREACHING GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED ACROSS THE ILM WATERS TODAY...THEN RELAX ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO DROP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH MAINLY A NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...SIGNIFICANT SEA GROWTH IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DUE TO THE LIMITED FETCH FROM THIS OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION. THE SEAS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING ROUGHLY IN THE 4 TO 8 FOOT RANGE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO WHERE SCEC HEADLINES ARE NEEDED DUE TO 5 FT SEAS ON THURSDAY. THE WATERS WILL FIND THEMSELVES BETWEEN STRONG AREA OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A WAVE MOVING UP ARCTIC BOUNDARY A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE. THE OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE WAVE SHADOWING HOWEVER AND THE 5 FT SEAS MAY NOT TAKE UP ENOUGH OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO WARRANT THE HEADLINES...USUALLY RESERVED FOR A 4 TO 5 FT FCST. THE WAVE SHADOWING IN OTHER WORDS WILL FAVOR 3 TO 5 FT. THE EXIT OF THE WAVE AND THE INCREASED PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH BY FRIDAY WILL DECREASE AND BACK THE WINDS AND ALLOW SEAS TO EASE MAINLY IN THE PREVIOUSLY STIRRED UP OUTER REACHES OF THE 20 NM FCST ZONES. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE ARCTIC HIGH APPEARS TO WASH OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE MAIN CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WELL EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS THE WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY BUT VERY SLOWLY AND THE DAYTIME CHANGE IN WIND/SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL. BOTH SHOULD RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017- 023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087- 096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
220 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING... WHEN A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY... WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE UNCHANGED THIS EVENING. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND REGIONAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY VALUES BLOSSOMED AND INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING...AS A PAIR OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAKS (INCLUDING A MEASURED 175 KTS IN THE NORTHERN ONE OVER KBNA) BECOME INCREASINGLY PHASED FROM THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE WAS EARLIER CONCERN THAT SNOW TOTALS MAY BE TOO HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS...WHERE A 700-850 MB WARM NOSE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 3 DEGREES NOSED INTO THOSE AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN PRECIPITATION FELL PRIMARILY AS SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF COOLING OF THE WARM NOSE EVIDENT IN FORECAST THICKNESSES...BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND MOST RECENTLY ACTUAL OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THESE AREAS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM THERE...WITH CONTINUED ALL SNOW ELSEWHERE. WHILE THE NEW/00Z NAM HAS VERIFIED TOO HIGH BY ABOUT DOUBLE WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS...THE HRRR AND RUC HAVE VERIFIED MUCH BETTER AND INDICATE AN AVERAGE OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 1 AM AND 5 AM...YIELDING A TOTAL OF AN TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT EAST OF A WADESBORO TO RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF I- 95. THESE LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WOULD WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN SNOW RATIOS OF 8-15:1...LOWEST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED RELATIVE WARMTH IN THE H7-850 LAYER RESIDES. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WADESBORO TO RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS LINE - A LINE THAT NOT SURPRISINGLY COINCIDES WITH THE H85 TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS - MAY EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 1 OR 2 AM...WHERE A SATURATED LAYER DEPTH IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE NUCLEATION/MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. THIS ALREADY SHALLOW SATURATION WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...INCLUDING THE TRIAD. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT WILL BE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS...WHEN COMBINED WITH A 5-15 MPH WIND...WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. DURING OUR MULTIPLE SNOW MEASURING TRIPS OUTSIDE HERE ON NCSU CENTENNIAL CAMPUS...THE COMBINATION OF COLD...WIND...AND DAMPNESS HAS INDEED BEEN BONE- CHILLING. ALL OBSERVED SNOW REPORTS CAN BE FOUND IN BOTH THE LSR AND PNS PRODUCTS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENTLY UPDATED AS NEW REPORTS COME IN...THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... THE WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE ARA IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MID MORNING. A LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHEAR EASTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EAST AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY BUT VERY COLD CONDITIONS. SOME CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL YIELD TO A PERIOD OF HIGH OVERCAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER AND COLD AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SUBFREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FALL WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND LITTLE WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HINTED THAT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BACK INLAND ACROSS THE NC COAST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TOUGH AXIS. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS TOO MUCH BUT AM CONCERNED THAT SOME CIRRUS MAY INHIBIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES. CONTINUED COLD BUT NOT AS COLD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 16-24 RANGE WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. -BLAES && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A WELCOME WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL EDGE UP INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...AND A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MINS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING TO THE MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES OFFSHORE AND WE ENJOY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY 40 TO 45. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE = NEAR ZONAL AS THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SEASONABLY MILD HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST...AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER EXTENDED FORECAST...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. CONCURRENTLY... THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ALIGNING MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A COUPLE OF CLOUDY AND DAMP DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...NO ARCTIC AIR IS IN THE PIPELINE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE BOTH DAYS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY... INT/GSO IS SEEING VFR CONDITIONS AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AT RDU... CURRENT MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL HOLD ON UNTIL AROUND 11-12Z... WHEN PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING INCLUDING A TREND TO JUST HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. AT FAY/RWI... CURRENT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN SNOWFALL WILL HOLD EVEN LONGER... THROUGH 14- 16Z... WITH AVIATION CONDITIONS TRENDING TO PRIMARILY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFTER THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT THESE LOCATIONS AFTER 18Z... WITH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN FROM THE NNE THROUGH 12Z BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NNW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON... UNDER 10 KTS AT INT/GSO/RDU BUT AROUND 10-12 KTS AT RWI/FAY. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THU EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE REGION. A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS MAINLY AT FAY/RWI THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME BY MIDDAY FRI EVERYWHERE... THEN MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN FRI EVENING/NIGHT MAINLY AT FAY/RDU/RWI. IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO SUN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. -GIH && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR JANUARY 30TH GSO 4 DEGREES SET IN 1966 RDU 7 DEGREES SET IN 1977 FAY 8 DEGREES SET IN 1934 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ008>011- 025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007- 021>024-038-039-073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...HARTFIELD CLIMATE...ELLIS/TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
326 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND COLD NORTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAW...BUT RECENT TRENDS HAVE PUSHED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH. 19UTC RAP/HR RR ARE EVEN FARTHER NORTH PUSHING NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VERY LIGHT RETURNS...LIKELY NOT HITTING THE GROUND ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...AS WELL AS FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA...HINTING THE FARTHER NORTH MESCAL MODELS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. 12 UTC NAM/GS BU FR DATA INDICATE A PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WITHIN A WELL SATURATED LAYER. THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE PRECIPITATION AREA FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS/PF AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING GOLVA...HETTINGER...MARMARTH AND BOWMAN. AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF BOWMAN COUNTY. AMOUNTS TAPER TO AROUND AN INCH FROM BEACH TO DICKINSON...EL GIN AND ASHLEY. AND A HALF INCH OR LESS FROM WAT FORD CITY TO BISMARCK AND ELLEN DALE. ACROSS THE NORTH..COLD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. FOR NOW WILL ONLY GO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL COUNTIES SOUTH AND WEST ADDED ON AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE COLD WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE REGIONS WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL REINFORCING COLD INFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE H500 IMPULSES WILL MAINTAIN A COLD EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY REGIME IN THE EXTENDED. COLD WIND CHILLS...CLOSE TO AND WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA...LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS INTO THE MORNING THROUGH THE EXTENDED STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AREAS ALONG...NORTH...AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD GET WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TADS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 COLD FR NT HAS MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WILLISTON AND MINOT AROUND 18Z...BUT HAVE ALREADY SCATTERED OUT. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS YET THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT A SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. 12 UTC MODEL SUITE KEEP ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IN LIGHT SNOW WAS ADDED TO KDIK AROUND 03-08 UTC. WILL INFORM THE EVENING SHIFT OF CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND AND POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS INTO KISN AND KB IS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ND001>005-010>013-023-025. && $$ SHORT TERM...TWA LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...TWA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
114 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 114 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR ROSEAU TO CROOKSTON TO CASSELTON WHILE THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH ITS LEADING EDGE FROM CAVALIER TO NEAR CARRINGTON. NORTHWEST WIND ALONG AND RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS WAS THE CASE AT DEVILS LAKE...RUGBY AND CARRINGTON. HOWEVER...RAP 925 HPA WINDS STILL DECREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS BY MID-AFTERNOON...SO SURFACE WINDS IN THE 15 O 25 MPH RANGE SEEM REASONABLE. COULD BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW...BUT ASOS/AWOS VISIBILITY GENERALLY 10 SM. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT WHEREAS AREAS DOWNSTREAM WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ONCE SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 14 UTC RAP STILL SHOWING 925 HPA SOUTHWEST WIND FROM 45 TO 50 KTS CUTTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18 UTC AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY LATEST WSR-88D VAD PROFILE WHICH SHOWS 50 KTS AT 2000 FT AGL. LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...HOWEVER...IS TOO STRONG SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS TO REFLECT MUCH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 900 HPA THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING WINDS DROP TO AROUND 25 KTS...SO HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND TODAY TO BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF EASTERN ND. DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES/WIND/SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 A FEW AREAS REMAIN IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 12Z...BUT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AND ALLOWED ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL NOT SURE HOW DEEP WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAP HAS INCREASED 950MB-925MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA (INDICATING 925MB WINDS 45-50 KNOTS). SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 WIND CHILLS STILL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...BUT STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXPIRATION OF 12Z. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL PLACE THE REGION IN A WARMER AIRMASS TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE MINOR CONCERNS WITH WIND SPEED. FIRST...IN THE WARM SECTOR...MODELS INDICATE THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 925MB WINDS WILL BE 40-50 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS (SUCH AS EAST OF THE VALLEY) MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. WILL MONITOR...BUT EVEN IF SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST...ADDITIONAL HAZARDS WOULD BE MINOR. SECOND...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS INDICATE BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT 925MB WINDS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS. WITH EACH SCENARIO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW (ALTHOUGH DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE). REGION IS BACK IN A COLDER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL AGAIN BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THAT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ESCORT A SERIES OF DRY FROPAS FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SHOTS OF CANADIAN AIRMASSES. AS A RESULT A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STORM TRACK AND ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 114 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH NO RESTRICTION TO VSBY AND VFR CIGS. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTION TO VSBY AS GUSTY S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT SWITCH TO THE NW FROM W-E ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ROGERS SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/JK AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
957 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 957 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 14 UTC RAP STILL SHOWING 925 HPA SOUTHWEST WIND FROM 45 TO 50 KTS CUTTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18 UTC AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY LATEST WSR-88D VAD PROFILE WHICH SHOWS 50 KTS AT 2000 FT AGL. LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...HOWEVER...IS TOO STRONG SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS TO REFLECT MUCH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 900 HPA THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING WINDS DROP TO AROUND 25 KTS...SO HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND TODAY TO BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF EASTERN ND. DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES/WIND/SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 A FEW AREAS REMAIN IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 12Z...BUT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AND ALLOWED ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL NOT SURE HOW DEEP WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAP HAS INCREASED 950MB-925MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA (INDICATING 925MB WINDS 45-50 KNOTS). SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 WIND CHILLS STILL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...BUT STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXPIRATION OF 12Z. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL PLACE THE REGION IN A WARMER AIRMASS TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE MINOR CONCERNS WITH WIND SPEED. FIRST...IN THE WARM SECTOR...MODELS INDICATE THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 925MB WINDS WILL BE 40-50 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS (SUCH AS EAST OF THE VALLEY) MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. WILL MONITOR...BUT EVEN IF SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST...ADDITIONAL HAZARDS WOULD BE MINOR. SECOND...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS INDICATE BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT 925MB WINDS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS. WITH EACH SCENARIO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW (ALTHOUGH DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE). REGION IS BACK IN A COLDER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL AGAIN BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THAT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ESCORT A SERIES OF DRY FROPAS FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SHOTS OF CANADIAN AIRMASSES. AS A RESULT A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STORM TRACK AND ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND WIND SHIFT TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ROGERS SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/JK AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 A FEW AREAS REMAIN IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 12Z...BUT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AND ALLOWED ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL NOT SURE HOW DEEP WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAP HAS INCREASED 950MB-925MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA (INDICATING 925MB WINDS 45-50 KNOTS). SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 WIND CHILLS STILL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...BUT STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXPIRATION OF 12Z. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL PLACE THE REGION IN A WARMER AIRMASS TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE MINOR CONCERNS WITH WIND SPEED. FIRST...IN THE WARM SECTOR...MODELS INDICATE THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 925MB WINDS WILL BE 40-50 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS (SUCH AS EAST OF THE VALLEY) MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. WILL MONITOR...BUT EVEN IF SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST...ADDITIONAL HAZARDS WOULD BE MINOR. SECOND...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS INDICATE BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT 925MB WINDS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS. WITH EACH SCENARIO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW (ALTHOUGH DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE). REGION IS BACK IN A COLDER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL AGAIN BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THAT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ESCORT A SERIES OF DRY FROPAS FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SHOTS OF CANADIAN AIRMASSES. AS A RESULT A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STORM TRACK AND ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND WIND SHIFT TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/JK AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
256 PM PST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER AIR IS MOVING IN ALOFT...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER. EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT PASS LEVEL WHERE RAIN WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL THIS EVENING TO CHANGE TO SNOW. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH... THEN DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN DRY BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER BLUSTERY MUCH OF THE DAY AS S-N PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE WITH THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING A RESURGENCE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS CLARK COUNTY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN CLACKAMAS AND MARION COUNTIES. NO THUNDER YET...AND THUNDER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW WITH TOPS UP TO 12-15KFT...NOT HIGH OR COLD ENOUGH FOR GOOD CHARGE SEPARATION. BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SQUALLS...BUT THERE JUST IS NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO FULLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE FOR THESE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. OTHER THAN THE LINES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS... EXPECT MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWERING IN THE CASCADES...WHERE WESTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR MORE PERSISTENT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW IS INCREASING ABOVE 4500-5500 FT ALREADY...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REACH THE PASSES THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS REACHING 2000-2500 FT BY THU MORNING. FOR NOW IT APPEARS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADE PASSES AND 4-8 INCHES UP ABOVE PASS ELEVATIONS BEFORE PRECIP WINDS DOWN THU MORNING. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT APPEARS TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES COME DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA IN BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER FOOTHILL ELEVATIONS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY AS THE MAIN PACIFIC JET SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. WEAGLE .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE/SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BURGESS && .AVIATION....BREEZY VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO 10-15 KT AFTER 06Z THU. EXPECT A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR PREVAILING...BUT SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THURSDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS 2500-3500 FT THROUGH 06Z THU. CIGS MAY DROP TO 1500 FT BY 10Z LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 04Z-06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 15 KT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. /27 && .MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL JET HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35-38 KT TO THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING THE GUSTS TO STAY PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL. OVERALL WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...DROPPING BELOW 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS BY 06Z THU. GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS...SEVERAL 5 TO 9 FT SWELLS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK SO EXPECT A RATHER CHAOTIC SEA DURING THIS TIME. THE END RESULT WILL BE COMBINED SEAS HOVERING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS. /NEUMAN/27 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT.. HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1248 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY ADJUSTED GRIDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS LOWERING TEMPS A FEW NOTCHES WHILE ALSO RELAXING WINDS SLIGHTLY. NOT MUCH EFFECT ON WIND CHILL INDEX SO ADVISORY STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS. WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN COOLER. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE REGION. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM EST WEDNESDAY... TAFS ARE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAINLY WEST WINDS WILL BE LESSENING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST TO THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAINING LIGHT AND NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .CLIMATE... THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE REGION EXPERIENCES SOME RELIEF. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 30TH... TEMP YEAR ROANOKE31966 LYNCHBURG41934 DANVILLE81966 BLACKSBURG-101966 BLUEFIELD-111966 LEWISBURG 7 2004 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/PC SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...NF/PC CLIMATE...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1105 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY ADJUSTED GRIDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS LOWERING TEMPS A FEW NOTCHES WHILE ALSO RELAXING WINDS SLIGHTLY. NOT MUCH EFFECT ON WIND CHILL INDEX SO ADVISORY STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS. WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN COOLER. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE REGION. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY... RADAR INDICATES THAT ORGANIZED SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS. EVEN THESE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL...AND SHOULD SEE SKC CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. KBLF WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND PINS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY AROUND 15Z. MAY EXPERIENCE THE OCCASIONAL 15KT GUST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH VFR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN A SOUTHERLY SHIFT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .CLIMATE... THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE REGION EXPERIENCES SOME RELIEF. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 30TH... TEMP YEAR ROANOKE31966 LYNCHBURG41934 DANVILLE81966 BLACKSBURG-101966 BLUEFIELD-111966 LEWISBURG 7 2004 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/PC SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...NF/PM CLIMATE...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1005 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY ADJUSTED GRIDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS LOWERING TEMPS A FEW NOTCHES WHILE ALSO RELAXING WINDS SLIGHTLY. NOT MUCH EFFECT ON WIND CHILL INDEX SO ADVISORY STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS. WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN COOLER. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE REGION. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY... RADAR INDICATES THAT ORGANIZED SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS. EVEN THESE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL...AND SHOULD SEE SKC CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. KBLF WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND PINS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY AROUND 15Z. MAY EXPERIENCE THE OCCASIONAL 15KT GUST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH VFR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN A SOUTHERLY SHIFT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/PC SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...NF/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
603 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS. WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN COOLER. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE REGION. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY... RADAR INDICATES THAT ORGANIZED SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS. EVEN THESE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL...AND SHOULD SEE SKC CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. KBLF WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND PINS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY AROUND 15Z. MAY EXPERIENCE THE OCCASIONAL 15KT GUST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH VFR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN A SOUTHERLY SHIFT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...NF/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
431 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS. WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN COOLER. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE REGION. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 115 AM EST WEDNESDAY... LAST BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW EAST OF KDAN AND KLYH THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THROUGH 29/09Z. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IS WORKING IN AND CEILINGS FOR MOST STATIONS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH SUNRISE. KBLF WILL MAINTAIN IFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS AS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS LOW CEILINGS AND THE OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRY THAT REDUCES VISIBILITY... HOWEVER THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ABATE BY SUNRISE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ONCE AREA AIRPORTS SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN...EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 29/06Z TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TOWARD 15 KT DURING THE DAY DUE TO DECENT PRESSURE RISES OVER THE AREA. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...NF/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
945 PM PST THU JAN 30 2014 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 6:09 PM THURSDAY...WILL ISSUE AN EVENING UPDATE FOR ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES. LAST VISIBLE SHOTS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED CLOUD MASS WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO. SOME OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. ADMITTEDLY LEANING ON THE RAP SHORT TERM MODEL FOR THIS UPDATE AS WELL AS CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. KMUX-88D IS STARTING TO PICK UP SOME RETURNS OUT WEST OF THE FARALLONES. THE AIRMASS IS NOW MUCH COLDER ALOFT AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/FORCING ALOFT. UPSHOT IS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE INCREASED POPS...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND SANTA CRUZ MTNS AS WELL AS THE BIG SUR COAST. THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WAS VERY MEAGER IN ITS RAIN AMOUNTS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WE CAN OFTEN GET SOME OF OUR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN SHOWERS IN THE POST-FRONTAL/NW ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD. ANYWAY...GIVEN THE RAINFALL DEFICITS WILL TAKE ANYTHING WE CAN SO FORECAST POPS AND QPF WERE MASSAGED FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. CURRENT SET-UP LOOKS LIKE THE NORTH BAY WILL MOSTLY BE MISSED. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND BE DONE BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH NW ONSHORE WINDS. NEXT FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE INCOMING UPPER LOW THAT MAY SKIRT THE COAST ROUGHLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH BIG SUR. GEM AND ECMWF ARE WETTEST AND MOST BULLISH WHILE LATEST NAM AND GFS REMAIN WEAKER WITH SYSTEM MORE OFFSHORE. LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER FOR A WHILE NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST THERE IS SOME HINT OF MORE POTENTIAL STORMS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1:43 PM PST THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT A BETTER CHANCE ON SUNDAY WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AFTER A WET START TO THE MORNING...THE SUN CAME OUT FOR MUCH OF THE BAY AREA. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE REGION HAS EXITED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...MOST LOCATIONS ARE WITH IN A FEW DEGREES OF YESTERDAY OR A TAD COOLER UNDER THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION. THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE MOST NOTABLE ONE IS LOCATED NEAR 40N 135W. SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-SUNDAY)... FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND PASSING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FORECAST. THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND EVEN SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. THE CONSENSUS IN THE OFFICE IS THAT THE INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE OVER DONE. NAM HAS RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGH SFC CAPE BEING FORECAST TONIGHT. IF PRECIP DOES FALL OVERNIGHT NOT EXPECTING MUCH...ONLY A FEW ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN. HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS OUT AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF AK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD PASSING THE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. DEFINITELY NOT THE EASIEST FORECAST GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN SOME CASES...THIS FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BRING THE BEST PRECIP TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OR TWO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INLAND EARLY MONDAY. BY THIS POINT ALL PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED. LONG TERM(MONDAY-THURSDAY)... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING MORE LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MIDWEEK BUT CONF IS TO LOW TO ADD ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD....NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE MODELS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AGAIN AND BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST SOLUTION WITH THE GFS KEEPING MORE PRECIP NORTH. ULTIMATELY...THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT THE PATTERN IS CHANGING AND MORE STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST THURSDAY...MORE RAIN IS BEING PICKED UP OFFSHORE BY THE RADAR AND MORE MVFR CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND ARE ALSO PICKING UP WITH SFO REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS TO 20 KT. MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINANT UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES WHICH WILL BE AROUD 12Z. SHOULD CLEAR UP FOR THE MORNING RUSH BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. VICINITY OF KSFO...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. WEST WINDS TO 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT AFTER 12Z. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS 08Z=15Z. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION: W PI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 908 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW WITH CDOT SHOWING HIGHWAY 50 CLOSED OVER MONARCH PASS. THIS BAND EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS CHAFFEE LAKE COUNTIES AND ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. ECHOES LOOK PRETTY INTENSE ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO TOO...BUT WEB CAMS NOT LOOKING TO BAD YET AS TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. AM STARTING TO SEE SNOW COVER AT MONUMENT HILL CAM. MODELS STILL ON TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING THROUGH 2 AM...THEN DECREASING AS THE FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT...AND GFS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES. RAP HAS BACKED OFF A BIT AND IS SHOWING UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH UP TO AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. THIS SEEMS MORE IN LINE AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY. -KT UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. BROUGHT IN THE LATEST GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. CONCERN FOR FORECAST THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY WHERE RUC13 AND GFS ARE SHOWING ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY/MONUMENT HILL AREA...AND NAM12 SHOWS VERY LITTLE. WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHERE THE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER UPGLIDE SETS UP. RADAR TRENDS FOCUSING HEAVIER SNOWFALL FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST CO/DENVER AREA WHICH APPEARS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM12 AND HRRR...SO WILL HOLD THE COURSE AND WAIT FOR LATEST 00Z RUNS. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 ...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONTDVD... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AMPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING WIDESPREAD ECHOES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO IMPINGING ON THE CONTDVD...WITH ECHOES SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN FREMONT AND WESTERN TELLER COUNTY AT THIS TIME. AT SFC...A LOW NEAR RATON HAS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME. SOME EARLY TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AND BETWEEN 5 AND 15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN RECORDED ACROSS THE CONTDVD...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER AND NEAR THE CENTRAL MTS. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS MOIST JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG AND MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONTDVD. MODEL QPFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE CONTDVD AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE THE CONTDVD...GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHER WEST FACING PEAKS. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW FALL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MTS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AS THE JET CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS THE STATE...WITH GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND ONLY A FEW INCHES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LATEST HIGHER RES MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER NORTH AND SLOW DOWN SNOW ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...LOOKS LIKE WILL SEE SNOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS CURRENT ECHOES ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. ONLY EXPECTED LIGHT ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FLURRIES AND FOG CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING...AS SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. LATEST MODELS DO INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES REGION AGAIN INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN ONLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EL PASO COUNTY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 ...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS 4 SYSTEMS ARE BEING TRACKED... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEY WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE FCST AREA. WITH THE PRIMARY JET TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON THE PLAINS EACH DAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS LOCATED OVER NE CO AS I WRITE WILL BE LOCATED OVER SE CO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE THE PALMER DIVIDE IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR ACCUM SNOW. AT THIS TIME I HAVE ABOUT 3-6" OF SNOW AFFECTING NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/TELLER COUNTY WITH 1-3" FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS S EL PASO COUNTY. OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT SNOW WILL BE ALL THAT HEAVY...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH. IT IS POSSIBLE OTERO AND KIOWA COUNTIES COULD SEE A BIT MORE (1-2"). SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS FORECAST AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. WINTER WX HILITES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONTDVD FRIDAY NITE. HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS THE W SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS...ESPECIALLY S OF WOLF CREEK PASS S TO THE CO/NM BORDER. BASED ON THIS...I HAVE EXTENDED THE WSW FOR AREAS ALONG THE CONTDVD OUT TO 06Z SAT (11 PM FRI NITE). DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...SIMULATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION/E SLOPES OF S MTNS SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS IN LOW END SCATTERED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. OVER THE MTNS...SNOW WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND WILL GRADUALLY BE DECREASING. SUNDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUED COOL. A WX SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NM...BUT IT APPEARS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE AREA ANY PRECIP. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH IT THOUGH. THE 3RD WEATHER SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS LATER ON MONDAY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE GFS QPF FIELDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE WETTER THAN THE EC. IF THIS STORM DOES DEVELOP AS THE SIMULATIONS INDICATE...THEN WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER DROUGHT STRICKEN SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FCST TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THU. FOR NOW JUST MENTIONED WIDESPREAD LIGHT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. BOTH SIMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS OFF BY ABOUT 12H. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 KCOS WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WAVES OF SNOW MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES. COULD SEE UP 1/2 INCH TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION AT THE TERMINAL...WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING THROUGH 09Z. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND COULD SEE A WINDOW OF UPPER END LIFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS 12Z IN BR. CIGS WILL INCREASE A BIT INTO THE LOW END MVFR CATEGORY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF SNOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BOUTS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KCOS COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SECOND ROUND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS MORE LIKELY TO MISS THE KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES TONIGHT THOUGH WILL CARRY A VCSH GROUP AT KALS OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THERE. CIGS WILL STAY VFR AT KALS...AND MVFR AT KPUB. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT KPUB WILL LIKELY CAUSE CIGS TO DROP TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER END IFR CIGS WITH FOG TOWARDS 12Z. CIGS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING A PASSING -SHSN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE SECOND WAVE MOVING IN. KALS WILL LIKELY STAY VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS SPREADING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS AND LIFR CONDITIONS IN +SN BLSN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ064-066- 067. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ058>061-068. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ062-063. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...HODANISH/MW AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
924 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 908 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW WITH CDOT SHOWING HIGHWAY 50 CLOSED OVER MONARCH PASS. THIS BAND EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS CHAFFEE LAKE COUNTIES AND ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. ECHOES LOOK PRETTY INTENSE ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO TOO...BUT WEB CAMS NOT LOOKING TO BAD YET AS TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. AM STARTING TO SEE SNOW COVER AT MONUMENT HILL CAM. MODELS STILL ON TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING THROUGH 2 AM...THEN DECREASING AS THE FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT...AND GFS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES. RAP HAS BACKED OFF A BIT AND IS SHOWING UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH UP TO AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. THIS SEEMS MORE IN LINE AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY. -KT UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. BROUGHT IN THE LATEST GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. CONCERN FOR FORECAST THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY WHERE RUC13 AND GFS ARE SHOWING ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY/MONUMENT HILL AREA...AND NAM12 SHOWS VERY LITTLE. WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHERE THE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER UPGLIDE SETS UP. RADAR TRENDS FOCUSING HEAVIER SNOWFALL FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST CO/DENVER AREA WHICH APPEARS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM12 AND HRRR...SO WILL HOLD THE COURSE AND WAIT FOR LATEST 00Z RUNS. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 ...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONTDVD... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AMPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING WIDESPREAD ECHOES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO IMPINGING ON THE CONTDVD...WITH ECHOES SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN FREMONT AND WESTERN TELLER COUNTY AT THIS TIME. AT SFC...A LOW NEAR RATON HAS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME. SOME EARLY TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AND BETWEEN 5 AND 15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN RECORDED ACROSS THE CONTDVD...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER AND NEAR THE CENTRAL MTS. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS MOIST JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG AND MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONTDVD. MODEL QPFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE CONTDVD AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE THE CONTDVD...GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHER WEST FACING PEAKS. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW FALL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MTS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AS THE JET CONTINUES TO SAG ACROSS THE STATE...WITH GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND ONLY A FEW INCHES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LATEST HIGHER RES MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER NORTH AND SLOW DOWN SNOW ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...LOOKS LIKE WILL SEE SNOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS CURRENT ECHOES ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. ONLY EXPECTED LIGHT ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FLURRIES AND FOG CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING...AS SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. LATEST MODELS DO INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES REGION AGAIN INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN ONLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EL PASO COUNTY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 ...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS 4 SYSTEMS ARE BEING TRACKED... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEY WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE FCST AREA. WITH THE PRIMARY JET TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON THE PLAINS EACH DAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS LOCATED OVER NE CO AS I WRITE WILL BE LOCATED OVER SE CO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE THE PALMER DIVIDE IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR ACCUM SNOW. AT THIS TIME I HAVE ABOUT 3-6" OF SNOW AFFECTING NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/TELLER COUNTY WITH 1-3" FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS S EL PASO COUNTY. OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT SNOW WILL BE ALL THAT HEAVY...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH. IT IS POSSIBLE OTERO AND KIOWA COUNTIES COULD SEE A BIT MORE (1-2"). SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS FORECAST AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. WINTER WX HILITES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONTDVD FRIDAY NITE. HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS THE W SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS...ESPECIALLY S OF WOLF CREEK PASS S TO THE CO/NM BORDER. BASED ON THIS...I HAVE EXTENDED THE WSW FOR AREAS ALONG THE CONTDVD OUT TO 06Z SAT (11 PM FRI NITE). DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...SIMULATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION/E SLOPES OF S MTNS SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS IN LOW END SCATTERED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. OVER THE MTNS...SNOW WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND WILL GRADUALLY BE DECREASING. SUNDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUED COOL. A WX SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NM...BUT IT APPEARS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE AREA ANY PRECIP. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH IT THOUGH. THE 3RD WEATHER SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS LATER ON MONDAY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. BOTH EC AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE GFS QPF FIELDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE WETTER THAN THE EC. IF THIS STORM DOES DEVELOP AS THE SIMULATIONS INDICATE...THEN WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER DROUGHT STRICKEN SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FCST TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THU. FOR NOW JUST MENTIONED WIDESPREAD LIGHT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. BOTH SIMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS OFF BY ABOUT 12H. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 MVFR CONDITIONS AT COS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW...WITH ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. EXPECTING LOWERING CIGS WITH LIGHT FLURRIES AND FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS AT PUB THROUGH 06Z WITH LOWERING CIGS AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT ALS WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ064-066- 067. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ058>061-068. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ062-063. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...HODANISH/MW AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
251 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)... THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS PERSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY INDICATES A GRADUAL DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS S FL/KEYS/STRAITS THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD OVER THE STATE TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REFLECT THIS DRYING TREND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AFTER ANOTHER WET START THIS MORNING. MODEL PWS DECREASE FROM AROUND AND JUST UNDER THE 2" MARK THIS MORNING TO THE 1-1.5" RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH THIS DRYING TREND WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM EAST TO WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG WARMER THAN AVERAGE EACH DAY. FOG WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLEARING...NEAR CALM WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NAM12 CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REFLECT THIS AND ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SREF PROBABILITY OF VSBYS DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE RANGE FROM 60-90%. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)... THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND INDICATES DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY AND LOWS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 60S EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS (LOW 70S FOR COASTAL/METRO LOCATIONS). GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND STALLING NORTH OF OUR AREA. && .MARINE... A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY/ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 80 69 83 69 / 40 20 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 81 71 82 73 / 40 20 10 10 MIAMI 82 71 83 72 / 40 20 10 10 NAPLES 79 66 84 66 / 40 20 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG AVIATION/RADAR...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
305 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WAS KEEPING MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND CLEAR...BUT SOME CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE RAP DOES SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND TWENTY BELOW AS OF 3 AM...WITH THE CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS UP AS THEY MOVE IN. SOME FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED AS WELL OUT OF THESE CLOUDS AND WE WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TODAY. WE WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL GOING ACROSS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS MAY BE CANCELLED AROUND 10 AM. A SHORTWAVE AND WAA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE INCREASED POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT...AND EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE...AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN CAUSING TEMPS TO RISE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...MAINLY UNDER AN INCH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO THE TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE E/NE SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL US. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NRN WI THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL CONUS BY TUE AND LIFT TO THE NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY WED. THE NWD EXTEND OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS STILL IN QUESTION AND COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHLAND...AND WILL LIKELY JUST LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. THE OTHER CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES LIKELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH MAINLY VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 2 -11 14 -11 / 0 30 40 10 INL 1 -14 6 -18 / 10 20 20 10 BRD 4 -8 14 -16 / 0 40 40 0 HYR 5 -14 20 -13 / 0 10 40 20 ASX 7 -10 18 -8 / 0 10 30 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021- 025-026-033>038. WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
339 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2014 ...Active Weather Pattern Through Next Week... .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tomorrow) Issued at 258 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 Very tricky forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours due to a surface front in the area and two waves of precipitation moving through. Temperatures and precip type is going to be challenging today through tomorrow with a degree or two making a huge difference if precip will be frozen or not. There is a front basically near the I-44 corridor with temperatures just below freezing north of that front and in the middle 30s south of that front with the only exception over towards West Plains where temperatures are actually in the middle 20s due to some localized clear skies. Ceilings are slowly dropping and radar is starting to show some light echos developing across southwest Missouri indicating that low level moisture is beginning to move in. The initial wave will develop very light precip in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle this morning through the afternoon. The RUC models suggest that areas north of the spine of the Ozark Plateau will likely stay in the lower 30s today and areas south of the Plateau across far southern Missouri getting into the lower 40s. There will be a tight temperatures gradient across the CWA today. Patchy freezing drizzle will be possible this morning for areas north of I-44 through the early afternoon. Areas along the Highway 54 corridor will remain close to that freezing mark for most of the day and will have the best potential of seeing either light freezing rain or freezing drizzle through the afternoon hours. An area of low pressure will ride up and along the front tonight along with the main upper level wave moving through tonight. The low pressure will move from southwest Missouri to east central Missouri by Saturday morning. The best chance of precipitation will be across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks tonight through tomorrow with lesser pops across the southwest corner of the state and in southeast Kansas. Expecting the best potential for freezing rain and sleet mix will be across the Highway 54 corridor late tonight into tomorrow morning where about a tenth of an inch of ice will be possible and a dusting of light sleet or light snow when the precip wraps up late Saturday morning. Areas along and north of I-44 will have a window of seeing light freezing rain or light sleet mix perhaps some light snow to end with tomorrow morning ending from west to east Saturday afternoon. Again...a light glaze of ice possible and a dusting of light sleet or snow. At this time will let the current winter weather advisory continue because of the threat of patchy freezing drizzle this morning through early afternoon and then the risk for winter weather late tonight into early Saturday morning. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 258 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 Cold Canadian airmass will settle in for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Have followed the ECMWF closely with the latest trends from Sunday through the end of next week. There will be an upper level wave moving south of the area Sunday afternoon. There has been a slight trend to bring some precip northward into southern Missouri Sunday afternoon. Will mention light snow possible for extreme southern Missouri with best chances south of our area. A light dusting may be possible for areas of far southern Missouri. The potential is increasing of a significant winter storm will move in Monday night through Tuesday night. Models are converging on a solution but still have some minor differences on thermal profiles and amounts. Snow will begin to develop and move in late Monday night into Tuesday morning with Tuesday morning through early afternoon being the prime time for snow and some of it looks like it could be heavy at times. There maybe some a wintry mix of sleet and snow for areas over far southern Missouri. Will start mentioning some decent accumulating snow looks increasing likely for the Ozarks with this system. QPF will be on the order of half an inch to an inch. At least several inches of snowfall if not more seem very likely. This winter storm potential will need to be watched closely through the weekend for forecast trends. That storm system will move out of the area Tuesday night. Very cold airmass moves in for middle and end of next week with fresh snow cover expected and high pressure overhead...temperatures will be very cold and especially overnight lows. Long range models are still indicating the potential of another significant winter storm sometime by the end of next week as well. Very active weather pattern starting this weekend through end of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1122 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 Dry lower levels will continue to saturate overnight and on Friday with lowering ceilings. Precipitation will eventually reach the ground. Expecting VFR conditions to deteriorate into MVFR towards daybreak with IFR conditions possibly by late in the day. Precipitation type could begin as light freezing rain, however models show freezing line shifting to along the CWA northern edge during the late morning so should change over to all rain. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Saturday FOR MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>081-088>091-094. KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Saturday FOR KSZ073-097- 101. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2014 .UPDATE: Issued at 913 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2014 Quick update to adjust POPs overnight based on latest guidance. Main change was to shift higher POPs further to the S based on latest RAP trends. The RAP and HRRR suggest a brief, quick shot of SN late tonight into Fri morning along and just N of I70 as a weak s/w passes thru the region. These mdls quickly have this area of precip moving thru the region with forcing diminishing. However, confidence in precip waning during this period is somewhat low as lower level forcing shud be increasing during the morning hours. That said, precip intensity shud be less than what these areas shud see Fri evening into Sat. With only the 00z NAM in so far, POPs for Fri afternoon may need to be increased across SE and E central MO, perhaps into SW IL. However, will allow the next shift to analyze all of the 00z guidance and latest sat and RADAR trends and adjust as needed. Tilly && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2014 The fcst for late this aftn and tonight was in pretty good order until the Quincy arpt reported snow earlier this aftn. Have had to increase POPs for late this aftn and early evening and added a few tenths of an inch of snow. This band should work east thru the evening and be in e cntrl IL by midnight. This band of precip is due to frontogenesis assoc with an approaching cold front. The front is fcst to push thru the CWA overnight and then get hung up across SE MO and sthrn IL on Friday. A band of WAA snow should begin to move into NE MO prior to 12Z. There is some question as to how far east this precip will make it prior to 12Z. Current thinking is it should make it to at least the MS R with a dusting expected by sunrise. Precip should be all snow overnight. There could be some -FZDZ in cntrl MO prior to 12Z...but best chances are later in the mrng. 2% .LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2014 (Friday through Sunday) This is a messy forecast, with the low to mid level thermal gradient draped across the area for the entire event. The forecast is likely to change again as we move through Friday into Friday night and Saturday. First wave of wintry precip should begin Friday morning. Cyclogenesis over the southwest Plains will cause the low level jet to ramp up over the area. The primary baroclinic zone looks to be over Oklahoma so the lift will be relatively weak. Forecast soundings and critical thickness forecasts show there may be a variety of precip types along and south of the I-70 corridor, but it should be cold enough for all snow up in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Precipitation up there may be further enhanced by a pasing vortmax and divergence aloft from the increasing upper level jet. Areas/patches of very light snow or freezing drizzle will be likely further south with warming temperatures in the warm advection turning the precip to a mostly rain or snow mix during the afternoon. Low level warm advection continues Friday night, but with increasing mid and upper level support. Should see precipitation intensity increase during the evening as a wave forms on the front and frontogenesis increases over the region. The upper level jet streak will also continue to increase aiding in lift. Current indications are that there will be a band of snow across northern portions of the CWFA as the low level wave travels northeast along the baroclinic zone. Further south, primarily warm advection precip will continue Saturday ahead of the front as it oozes south. Primary concern for areas along and south of I-70 will be a sleet/freezing rain mix due to the shallow nature of the cold air. Precipitation should be ending by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Am issuing a winter weather advisory for parts of central Missouri beginning at 12Z Friday morning and continuing until the precip ends Saturday afternoon...primarily for the potential of light glazing with the freezing drizzle, and then the mixed precip Friday night into Saturday. For northeast Missouri and west central Illinois will likewise issue an advisory for the snow. Am holding off at this time for areas further east and south due to the uncertainty of start times and precip types. Carney (Sunday night through Thursday night) It appears that the precipitation will shift s-se of our forecast area by Sunday night as a surface ridge builds sewd into the area. Temperatures will be quite cold, especially across nern MO and w cntrl IL with the models forecasting 850 mb temperatures of -7 to -10 C across this area Sunday night. Will see warmer temperatures Monday and Monday night as the surface/850 mb ridge shifts east of our area and the surface/low level winds become sely/sly. The next round of precipitation should spread ewd into at least the wrn half of our forecast area late Monday ngt as a sly low level jet brings fairly strong low level waa and increasing moisture into the region ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Both the ECMWF and GFS models have precipitation across the entire forecast area on Tuesday with the 850 mb low tracking newd through sern MO and srn IL Tuesday aftn and evng, and the surface low moving newd through wrn portions of TN and KY Tuesday aftn and evng. The models were also depicting relatively strong upper level divergence on Tuesday over our area ahead of the approaching upper level trough. The ECMWF model is a little cooler than the GFS model. The precipitation type should be all snow north and west of STL, but a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain south and east of STL based on the 850 mb temperature and partial thickness forecasts. The waa, warm conveyor type precipitation should shift east of our area Tuesday night with a dry slot moving newd into sern MO and swrn IL, but deformation zone snow should impact mainly nern MO and w cntrl IL Tuesday night based on the current forecast track of this winter storm system. The snow should taper off to flurries on Wednesday as the upper level trough shifts east of our area, and a strong surface ridge builds sewd into the region. Although there is still a lot of uncertainty as to the exact track of the storm system, it currently appears that the highest snowfall amounts will occur across nern MO and w cntrl IL, north and west of STL where the precipitation type will be all snow and the snowfall duration will be the longest due to the first wave of waa snows late Monday night and Tuesday followed by the deformation snows Tuesday night. Very cold air will filter sewd into the region on Wednesday, and this coupled with new snow on the ground across most of the forecast area will lead to unseasonably cold temperatures for Wednesday through Thursday night. GKS && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2014 VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the remainder of tonight and for at least much of Friday morning. A cold front is working its way thru the northwestern STL metro area now and should be thru all metro TAF sites by around 07z. Some snow is snaking eastward from Kansas and some of this may edge COU and the STL metro sites early Friday morning, but probs of it happening remain lo enough to preclude mention at this time. A much better chance for pcpn will occur late Friday morning for UIN as broader scale lift commences north of the now stalled front south of STL metro. This area of pcpn should expand further south into COU and STL metro sites by late Friday afternoon and continue at least intermittently thru much of Friday night. Pcpn-type should initially be snow for all TAF sites but warm air aloft, and in the case of STL metro sites, surface temps expected to poke above 32F, should transition pcpn thru some sleet and eventually settle on either FZRA or RA. COU looks more favorable for FZRA and went with just RA for now at the STL metro sites. Deteriorating conditions can be expected on Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening, going from VFR to IFR at all sites. Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions expected thru at least midday Friday before deteriorating conditions to IFR, especially by Friday evening. In the meantime, a cold front will push thru at the beginning of the period and shift winds out of the NW, and veering still further to NE by daybreak Friday and E later on Friday. A small chance for snow exists early Friday morning, between 12-15z, but probs too lo for mention in TAF. Better chances of at least intermittent pcpn will be from late Friday afternoon thru the night. Pcpn-types should start out as frozen SN and PL, eventually turning to liquid RA as both air aloft and surface temps rise thru Friday night. The liquid phase for Friday night looks more favorable for plain rain, but the 32F line will be lingering not too far off to the northwest, so will be close. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO- Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
253 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 253 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER. THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT THIS MORNING AS IT TRANSLATES EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 15Z- 18Z. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST WITH THIS EVOLUTION AND MANY SOLNS QUICKLY DISSOLVE THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOW BAND AS IT MOVES OFF THE COLO HIGH PLAINS. THE ARF AND NMM MESOSCALE SOLNS ARE THE BEST PRESERVING THE SNOW BAND BUT STILL DISSOLVE IT ONCE IT CLEARS MCCOOK. SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES STILL LOOKS PROMISING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SNOW BAND STRUCTURES SUGGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO SOME CSI. THE NAM WINDS SUGGEST THIS WHILE THE RAP MODEL DOES NOT. ACCORDING TO THE NAM...THE H700MB WIND SPEED MAX WORKING THROUGH NCNTL NEB SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z AND THEN DECAY. NONETHELESS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS THESE SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH. THE TEXTURE OF THE SNOW WITH THIS EVENTS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME RIMING AND IS GREASY UNDERFOOT PRODUCING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS FCST. FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE. A MODEL BLENDED SOLN PRODUCES A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA INCLUDING CUSTER COUNTY. SOME MODEL SOLNS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND KEEP THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE BIFURCATED ONCE AGAIN AND THE GFS...NAM AND GEM PRODUCE A SECOND WEAK BAND OF SNOW NORTH OF THE MAIN BAND PASSING THROUGH KS. THE ECM...SREF AND SOME OF THE ARF/NMM SOLNS DO NOT SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT. SO THE SNOW FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS UNCERTAIN. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AS ANOTHER PORTION OF THIS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS COULD SET UP RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT SO THAT PORTION OF THE FCST AREA USES THE COOL MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEWLY FORMED SNOW FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 20S TODAY WITH WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW FELL AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 253 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE ONE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST...HOWEVER THE NEXT CLIPPER TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL UNDERCUT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS BRINGS SOME CONCERN ABOUT MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE. SO NO REASONS TO DISCOUNT THIS AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THUS FORECAST KEEPS SLGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. WITH THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTION SOUTH...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO WARM. THE USUALLY WARMER SW HAS BEEN TRENDED COOLER AS THE THIS MORNING SNOWFALL WILL STILL BE AROUND TO HELP LIMIT WARMING. ONLY KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE BLEND...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AND A TREND DOWN MAY BE NEEDED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. DID CONTINUE TO TREND THE SW DOWN. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT RETURN SW FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT...AND MIGHT SEE WARMING TEMPS TOWARDS MORNING...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS. BY MONDAY MODELS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY...MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS. THE COMBINATION OF RETURN SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. THE MODELS FOCUS THE BEST LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE /AND GREATEST QPF/ FROM SE COLORADO INTO NW IOWA. MIGHT SEE ACTIVITY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS WILL BE TIME TO SATURATE WITH MAYBE SOME FLURRIES IF ANYTHING. EXPECTING THE BETTER DYNAMICS TO COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS EXPECT COLD AIR...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND AN ACTIVE PATTERN. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE/SUBTLE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW POPS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR AS EXPECTING TIMING WILL BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 SNOW IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1SM OR LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT AND...EVENTUALLY...CEILING IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 15Z. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z SOUTH AND EAST OF A BBW- LBF-OGA LINE. FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE PROBABILITY OF INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS NOT HIGH. STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED 12-18Z WITH VISIBILITY GENERALLY 2-3SM AND CEILING 1000-1500 FEET AGL. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED AT IML WITH THREE TO FOUR INCHES AT LBF AND OGA. OTHER AIRPORTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL NOT HAVE MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR NEZ022-056>059-069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 903 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ONE JET SEGMENT WAS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE HAD 40 TO 90 METER HEIGHT FALLS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SE COLORADO...AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THAT...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE EXITING WAVE HAD ALLOWED SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS GENERALLY BETWEEN I70 AND I80. MEANWHILE...FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED MOISTURE AT H85...IT REMAINS QUITE DRY ABOVE THAT. IT`S THIS DRY AIR THAT WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP DO TRY TO TO DEVELOP THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EAST SOUTHEAST...BUT LOSING A FIGHTING BATTLE AGAINST THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. BELIEVE THE HEAVIER SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN NE/KS BORDER REGION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. NEW 00Z NAM ALSO SUPPORTS THIS TREND WITH BEST POPS POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO NEBRASKA CITY TO RED OAK IOWA WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE... TAPERING TO JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW FURTHER NORTH FROM NORFOLK EAST SOUTHEAST TO OMAHA...AND NOTHING FURTHER NORTH OF THAT. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL CA. THIS WAVE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 120 KT H25 JET AND A 110 M H5 HEIGHT FALL AT KOAK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK EWD THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. LEAD SHORT WAVE THROUGH...NOW OVER WI HAS ALLOWED FOR A STRONG MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH +4 C AT KDDC TO -12 C AT KABR. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE FLOW INTO THIS GRADIENT AND CREATE AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INITIALLY OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST NEB/NW KS THIS EVENING. CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS INDICATE FAIRLY WEAK STATIC STABILITY IN THIS AREA WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES AROUND 1-2. THIS FRONTAL BAND WILL LIFT NEWD LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT THIS BAND WILL BE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND AS IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY REACHING OMA BY DAY BREAK...BUT LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER THAT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT TO THE PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED BY THE DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE SOME -SN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN. WE STILL GENERALLY EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIP FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH ABOUT 06Z SAT AS THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...AND BEFORE FORCING FROM THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED ON GLOBAL MODELS AND WE STRONGLY PREFER THE GFS/EC/GEM OVER THE WEAKER MORE SUPPRESSED NAM. THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN ACT TO INCREASE THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER UVV WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE WEAKER STABILITY INDICATED ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES EVEN NEGATIVE JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/NEB BORDER. DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO HAVE LESS OF A NEGATIVE EFFECT DURING THIS SYSTEM AND THE GFS/EC INDICATE AROUND 3-4 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY TO WORK WITH FRI NIGHT. COBB OUTPUT AND THERMAL PROFILES FROM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS OF 11-13. THUS WE FEEL 1-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG I-80 AND 2-4 IN THE FAR SOUTH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LESS AMOUNTS...GENERALLY UNDER AND INCH IN THE NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WINDS DURING THE TIME OF SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SAT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. WITHOUT FALLING SNOW THE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO CAUSE MANY ISSUES...BUT WE WILL SEE COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED GOING LOWS...BUT ACTUAL LOWS WILL DEPEND ON IF SKIES ARE CLEAR UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH OR NOT WITH SOME TEMPS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER OUR REGION TO SUPPORT LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BRING FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. WITH CONTINUED UPPER SUPPORT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET TO BE WORKED OUT AS THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS OUT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WELL SOUTH OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK LIKE IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW AS LONG AS DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH DOESN`T WIN. A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A 1040MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH THIS COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 SNOW CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTING TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD. FIRST BATCH OF SNOW WAS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DRY AIR HAS LIMITED EASTWARD EXTENT. CLOUD BASES HAVE DROPPED TO 8000-10000 FEET...AND WITH ADDITIONAL SATURATION...COULD SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES WHEN CLOUD BASES DROP TO 5000 FEET OR LESS...AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION SNOW ONCE CEILINGS REACH MVFR. SNOW SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING AT KLNK...WITH TEMPORARY CONDITIONS AT KOMA...BUT HAVE DOUBTS THAT IT MAY MAKE IT TO KOFK. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP AT TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BY 01/03-06Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DEWALD SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST THU JAN 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OVER OREGON BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. LOOK FOR DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM... SCATTERED SHOWERS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR...CONTINUED OVER THE CWA. THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND MUCH OF THE OLYMPICS REMAINED DRY. MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM A SURFACE LOW NW OF CAPE FLATTERY TO ACROSS THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND INTO THE NORTH CASCADES. THERE WAS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH OF THIS FRONT. ALSO...WINDS HAVE KICKED UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THOSE AREAS PRONE TO FRASER OUTFLOW SUCH AS SUMAS AND BELLINGHAM. THE CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE WET BULB COOLING EFFECTS OCCURRING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THE RUC INDICATED MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OVER THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDMORNING FRI. THE NAM SUGGESTED THAT THE PRECIP MIGHT TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS TO INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE LOWLANDS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT OR FRI MORNING. EXPECT THE WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA TO MOVE INTO OREGON BY MIDDAY FRI. INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN DRYING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT FOR DRY CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BEING THE MOST ACTIVE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY FOR A THREAT OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. .LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION... THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LITTLE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT... THE WRFGFS HAPPENS TO SHOW A BIT IN THE METRO AREA. BUT POPS ARE LOW AND DRY WEATHER IS AN EVEN BETTER BET...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA IS PRETTY MODEST AND MAY NOT GIVE MORE THAN A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. FOR NOW A GOOD FORECAST FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK IS COOL AND DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES...CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY. OVERALL THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW BENIGN WEATHER...BUT IT IS A WEATHER PATTERN WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY TREND IN THE MODELS TOWARD A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AND DID HAVE A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST 18Z GFS WAS DRY TUE-THU. && .AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHERLY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON WHILE A TROUGH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEAKENS. AIR MASS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. KSEA...LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT...PROBABLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP A BIT LATER FRIDAY. SOUTH WIND 4-8 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND FRIDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER && .MARINE...A TROUGH FROM JUST SOUTH OF VANCOUVER ISLAND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL PUGET SOUND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA BUILDS SOUTH INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INLAND WITH A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1025 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 903 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE CHEYENNE AREA AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER IN NORTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AT 9 PM. LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR HAS SNOW ENDING IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW RIGHT AROUND THE CHEYENNE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SNOW ADVISORIES OUT WEST AND UP TO THE NORTH OF CHEYENNE THIS EVENING. WILL WAIT ANOTHER HOUR OR SO TO SEE WHAT THAT SURFACE WAVE DOES BEFORE DEALING WITH THE WINTER HEADLINES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT STILL ON TRACK TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL QPF OVER THE PAST DAY THAT DEFINITELY CAUSES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG JET EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO COLORADO WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN UTAH. SFC FRONT HAS MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND IT IN THE UPSLOPE. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO THIS EVENING...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW THE BEST QG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. IN ADDITION...MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS OVER NORTHERN COLORADO FROM 00-06Z...SO THE HIGHEST QPF WOULD BE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...OR WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH ONLY UPSLOPE AND LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A LACK OF REALLY ANY OTHER FORCING MECHANISM FOR DEEP ASCENT...BEGINNING TO WONDER HOW HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REALLY BE. A LOOK AT THE MODEL TREND IN QPF OVER THE PAST DAY IS ALSO NOT ENCOURAGING FOR LARGER AMOUNTS. YESTERDAY THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF WAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND NOW WITH THE 12Z RUN IT IS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO. CONSIDERING ALL THESE FACTORS...REDUCED THE SNOWFALL TOTALS BY ABOUT 2 INCHES IN MOST AREAS FOR THE EVENT. THIS LEAVES MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH GENERALLY 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. SINCE UPSLOPE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ITS ADJACENT EASTERN FOOTHILLS...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW MORE INCHES THERE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS GOING...BUT THEY ARE REALLY BEGINNING TO LOOK MARGINAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 15 MPH AND BLOWING SNOW NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 12Z FRI AS THE LIFT DECREASES CONSIDERABLY. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TOMORROW...BUT TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BEST FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN OVER COLORADO WITH THE QPF LARGELY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. DID INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE ON SAT. SAT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP IN HIGHS AS 700MB TEMPS FALL TO -16C BY THE AFTN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ONLY ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS 700 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 30 TO 35 KTS. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY MOVING UP INTO COLORADO AHEAD OF THE DIGGING LOW. CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER COLORADO THROUGH THIS TIME WILL INDUCE NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. ENERGETIC NW FLOW WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PRODUCE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOVING OFF ONTO THE NEARBY EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL OVERALL REMAIN QUITE COLD THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 AREA OF SNOW PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM SIDNEY TO CHEYENNE AND IN THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO INCLUDE KBFF AND KAIA. LATEST HRRR FORECAST KEEPS IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z HERE AT KCYS AND MAYBE A LITTLE LATER IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 300 PM MST THU JAN 30 2014 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL ALSO BE WEAK. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ112-114- 116>119. NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ020-054. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ003-019-021- 055-096. && $$ UPDATE...CLAYCOMB SHORT TERM...FINCH LONG TERM...RJM AVIATION...CLAYCOMB FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
947 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 .UPDATE... HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED SURFACE BASED INVERSION THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY MEAGER BUT WITH APPROACH OF THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADD TO SOME OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS. THE HRRR INITIALIZED VERY WELL THIS MORNING AND SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 16Z MOSTLY EAST OF U.S. 27 AND NORTH OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. THIS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING AND THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT HOWEVER VERY IMPRESSIVE SO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY THREAT AT THIS TIME. KOB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014/ AVIATION... FEEL THAT BY 12Z...EASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE IN MVFR CIGS...WITH NAPLES CLINGING TO IFR STRATUS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING...AND WENT ACROSS-THE-BOARD VFR BY 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BEYOND 6 HOURS OUT...CONFIDENCE WASNT QUITE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER VCSH WORDING. TONIGHT...MODELS HINTING AT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS EPISODE OVER AT LEAST INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT EASTERN TERMINALS RESTRICTION-FREE...BUT KTMB WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. AT NAPLES...VSBY AND CIGS BOTH LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 6Z OR SO SATURDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND NORTHEAST TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. /SK PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)... THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS PERSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY INDICATES A GRADUAL DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS S FL/KEYS/STRAITS THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD OVER THE STATE TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REFLECT THIS DRYING TREND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AFTER ANOTHER WET START THIS MORNING. MODEL PWS DECREASE FROM AROUND AND JUST UNDER THE 2" MARK THIS MORNING TO THE 1-1.5" RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH THIS DRYING TREND WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM EAST TO WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG WARMER THAN AVERAGE EACH DAY. FOG WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLEARING...NEAR CALM WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NAM12 CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REFLECT THIS AND ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SREF PROBABILITY OF VSBYS DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE RANGE FROM 60-90%. LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)... THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND INDICATES DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY AND LOWS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 60S EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS (LOW 70S FOR COASTAL/METRO LOCATIONS). GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND STALLING NORTH OF OUR AREA. MARINE... A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY/ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 80 69 83 69 / 40 20 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 81 71 82 73 / 40 20 10 10 MIAMI 82 71 83 72 / 40 20 10 10 NAPLES 79 66 84 66 / 40 20 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
632 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 .AVIATION... FEEL THAT BY 12Z...EASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE IN MVFR CIGS...WITH NAPLES CLINGING TO IFR STRATUS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING...AND WENT ACROSS-THE-BOARD VFR BY 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BEYOND 6 HOURS OUT...CONFIDENCE WASNT QUITE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER VCSH WORDING. TONIGHT...MODELS HINTING AT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS EPISODE OVER AT LEAST INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT EASTERN TERMINALS RESTRICTION-FREE...BUT KTMB WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. AT NAPLES...VSBY AND CIGS BOTH LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 6Z OR SO SATURDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND NORTHEAST TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. /SK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)... THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS PERSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY INDICATES A GRADUAL DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS S FL/KEYS/STRAITS THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD OVER THE STATE TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REFLECT THIS DRYING TREND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AFTER ANOTHER WET START THIS MORNING. MODEL PWS DECREASE FROM AROUND AND JUST UNDER THE 2" MARK THIS MORNING TO THE 1-1.5" RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH THIS DRYING TREND WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM EAST TO WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG WARMER THAN AVERAGE EACH DAY. FOG WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLEARING...NEAR CALM WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NAM12 CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REFLECT THIS AND ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SREF PROBABILITY OF VSBYS DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE RANGE FROM 60-90%. LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)... THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND INDICATES DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY AND LOWS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 60S EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS (LOW 70S FOR COASTAL/METRO LOCATIONS). GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND STALLING NORTH OF OUR AREA. MARINE... A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY/ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 80 69 83 69 / 40 20 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 81 71 82 73 / 40 20 10 10 MIAMI 82 71 83 72 / 40 20 10 10 NAPLES 79 66 84 66 / 40 20 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
530 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 530 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WAS KEEPING MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND CLEAR...BUT SOME CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE RAP DOES SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND TWENTY BELOW AS OF 3 AM...WITH THE CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS UP AS THEY MOVE IN. SOME FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED AS WELL OUT OF THESE CLOUDS AND WE WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TODAY. WE WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL GOING ACROSS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS MAY BE CANCELLED AROUND 10 AM. A SHORTWAVE AND WAA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE INCREASED POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT...AND EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE...AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN CAUSING TEMPS TO RISE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...MAINLY UNDER AN INCH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO THE TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE E/NE SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL US. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NRN WI THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL CONUS BY TUE AND LIFT TO THE NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY WED. THE NWD EXTEND OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS STILL IN QUESTION AND COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHLAND...AND WILL LIKELY JUST LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. THE OTHER CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES LIKELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 530 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING BEFORE A PUSH OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NW...COMBINING WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BACKING TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 2 -11 14 -11 / 0 30 40 10 INL 1 -14 6 -18 / 10 20 20 10 BRD 4 -8 14 -16 / 0 40 40 0 HYR 5 -14 20 -13 / 0 10 40 20 ASX 7 -10 18 -8 / 0 10 30 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021- 025-026-033>038. WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
542 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tomorrow) Issued at 258 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 Very tricky forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours due to a surface front in the area and two waves of precipitation moving through. Temperatures and precip type is going to be challenging today through tomorrow with a degree or two making a huge difference if precip will be frozen or not. There is a front basically near the I-44 corridor with temperatures just below freezing north of that front and in the middle 30s south of that front with the only exception over towards West Plains where temperatures are actually in the middle 20s due to some localized clear skies. Ceilings are slowly dropping and radar is starting to show some light echos developing across southwest Missouri indicating that low level moisture is beginning to move in. The initial wave will develop very light precip in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle this morning through the afternoon. The RUC models suggest that areas north of the spine of the Ozark Plateau will likely stay in the lower 30s today and areas south of the Plateau across far southern Missouri getting into the lower 40s. There will be a tight temperatures gradient across the CWA today. Patchy freezing drizzle will be possible this morning for areas north of I-44 through the early afternoon. Areas along the Highway 54 corridor will remain close to that freezing mark for most of the day and will have the best potential of seeing either light freezing rain or freezing drizzle through the afternoon hours. An area of low pressure will ride up and along the front tonight along with the main upper level wave moving through tonight. The low pressure will move from southwest Missouri to east central Missouri by Saturday morning. The best chance of precipitation will be across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks tonight through tomorrow with lesser pops across the southwest corner of the state and in southeast Kansas. Expecting the best potential for freezing rain and sleet mix will be across the Highway 54 corridor late tonight into tomorrow morning where about a tenth of an inch of ice will be possible and a dusting of light sleet or light snow when the precip wraps up late Saturday morning. Areas along and north of I-44 will have a window of seeing light freezing rain or light sleet mix perhaps some light snow to end with tomorrow morning ending from west to east Saturday afternoon. Again...a light glaze of ice possible and a dusting of light sleet or snow. At this time will let the current winter weather advisory continue because of the threat of patchy freezing drizzle this morning through early afternoon and then the risk for winter weather late tonight into early Saturday morning. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 258 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 Cold Canadian airmass will settle in for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Have followed the ECMWF closely with the latest trends from Sunday through the end of next week. There will be an upper level wave moving south of the area Sunday afternoon. There has been a slight trend to bring some precip northward into southern Missouri Sunday afternoon. Will mention light snow possible for extreme southern Missouri with best chances south of our area. A light dusting may be possible for areas of far southern Missouri. The potential is increasing of a significant winter storm will move in Monday night through Tuesday night. Models are converging on a solution but still have some minor differences on thermal profiles and amounts. Snow will begin to develop and move in late Monday night into Tuesday morning with Tuesday morning through early afternoon being the prime time for snow and some of it looks like it could be heavy at times. There maybe some a wintry mix of sleet and snow for areas over far southern Missouri. Will start mentioning some decent accumulating snow looks increasing likely for the Ozarks with this system. QPF will be on the order of half an inch to an inch. At least several inches of snowfall if not more seem very likely. This winter storm potential will need to be watched closely through the weekend for forecast trends. That storm system will move out of the area Tuesday night. Very cold airmass moves in for middle and end of next week with fresh snow cover expected and high pressure overhead...temperatures will be very cold and especially overnight lows. Long range models are still indicating the potential of another significant winter storm sometime by the end of next week as well. Very active weather pattern starting this weekend through end of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 538 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 Pilots can expect deteriorating flight conditions at area terminals today. A front will remain stalled along the Interstate corridor through tonight while moisture increases. Ceilings will lower today and become prevailing MVFR. Areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle will impact area terminals. Precipitation will develop later tonight int Saturday morning as surface low pressure tracks across the region. Expect IFR ceilings to increase in coverage tonight and persist into Saturday morning. Low level wind shear will develop late tonight. Surface winds will shift to the west and northwest Saturday morning as the low pressure system and front move to the east. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Saturday FOR MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>081-088>091-094. KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Saturday FOR KSZ073-097- 101. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
533 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 253 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER. THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT THIS MORNING AS IT TRANSLATES EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 15Z- 18Z. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST WITH THIS EVOLUTION AND MANY SOLNS QUICKLY DISSOLVE THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOW BAND AS IT MOVES OFF THE COLO HIGH PLAINS. THE ARF AND NMM MESOSCALE SOLNS ARE THE BEST PRESERVING THE SNOW BAND BUT STILL DISSOLVE IT ONCE IT CLEARS MCCOOK. SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES STILL LOOKS PROMISING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SNOW BAND STRUCTURES SUGGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO SOME CSI. THE NAM WINDS SUGGEST THIS WHILE THE RAP MODEL DOES NOT. ACCORDING TO THE NAM...THE H700MB WIND SPEED MAX WORKING THROUGH NCNTL NEB SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z AND THEN DECAY. NONETHELESS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS THESE SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH. THE TEXTURE OF THE SNOW WITH THIS EVENTS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME RIMING AND IS GREASY UNDERFOOT PRODUCING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS FCST. FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE. A MODEL BLENDED SOLN PRODUCES A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA INCLUDING CUSTER COUNTY. SOME MODEL SOLNS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND KEEP THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE BIFURCATED ONCE AGAIN AND THE GFS...NAM AND GEM PRODUCE A SECOND WEAK BAND OF SNOW NORTH OF THE MAIN BAND PASSING THROUGH KS. THE ECM...SREF AND SOME OF THE ARF/NMM SOLNS DO NOT SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT. SO THE SNOW FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS UNCERTAIN. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AS ANOTHER PORTION OF THIS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS COULD SET UP RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT SO THAT PORTION OF THE FCST AREA USES THE COOL MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEWLY FORMED SNOW FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 20S TODAY WITH WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW FELL AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 253 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE ONE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST...HOWEVER THE NEXT CLIPPER TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL UNDERCUT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS BRINGS SOME CONCERN ABOUT MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE. SO NO REASONS TO DISCOUNT THIS AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THUS FORECAST KEEPS SLGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. WITH THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTION SOUTH...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO WARM. THE USUALLY WARMER SW HAS BEEN TRENDED COOLER AS THE THIS MORNING SNOWFALL WILL STILL BE AROUND TO HELP LIMIT WARMING. ONLY KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE BLEND...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AND A TREND DOWN MAY BE NEEDED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. DID CONTINUE TO TREND THE SW DOWN. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT RETURN SW FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT...AND MIGHT SEE WARMING TEMPS TOWARDS MORNING...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS. BY MONDAY MODELS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY...MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS. THE COMBINATION OF RETURN SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. THE MODELS FOCUS THE BEST LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE /AND GREATEST QPF/ FROM SE COLORADO INTO NW IOWA. MIGHT SEE ACTIVITY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS WILL BE TIME TO SATURATE WITH MAYBE SOME FLURRIES IF ANYTHING. EXPECTING THE BETTER DYNAMICS TO COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS EXPECT COLD AIR...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND AN ACTIVE PATTERN. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE/SUBTLE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW POPS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR AS EXPECTING TIMING WILL BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 533 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 THIS MORNING. CIGS AND VSBY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AFTER 18Z WITH THE EXIT OF THE STORM SYSTEM ONGOING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. THEN...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRUSHES THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW. THIS IS A FAIRLY MINOR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. STILL...MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG OR SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WITH THE TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR NEZ022-056>059-069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
641 AM PST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. && .UPDATE...UPDATED CURRENT GRIDS TO REFLECT ONGOING WEATHER IN NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. PERSISTANT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL IN THIS AREA...WHICH INCLUDES THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE AREA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS. ALL GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 338 AM / SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RADAR THIS MORNING IS DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. THE REMOTE SITE IN WINNEMUCCA IS NOW SHOWING A VISIBILITY OF 4 MILES...AND HAS BEEN IMPROVING. COOP OBSERVER IN WINNEMUCCA REPORTED A QUICK 0.8 INCHES WITH THE MIDNIGHT OBSERVATION. RUC13 IS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF WEAK LIFT IN THE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND OUT AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH. MODELS THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WEST OF NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT FROM NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA INTO ELKO COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NEVADA. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIP SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...GOING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THEN ARIZONA...WITH THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW EXITING EARLY SATURDAY. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE TROUGH WITH TH 500 MB COLD POOL TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD DROP A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY FORM...ALONG WITH SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRYING TO PUSH ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS A LITTLE STRONG WITH ENERGY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS DRY AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH QUIET CONDITIONS DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH AREA MONDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH TO NORTHWEST BY END OF PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW...THUS INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. EC SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY A BIT A WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...BUT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. AVIATION...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KELY SEEING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY. && $$ 86/90
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS ELKO NV
338 AM PST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RADAR THIS MORNING IS DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. THE REMOTE SITE IN WINNEMUCCA IS NOW SHOWING A VISIBILITY OF 4 MILES...AND HAS BEEN IMPROVING. COOP OBSERVER IN WINNEMUCCA REPORTED A QUICK 0.8 INCHES WITH THE MIDNIGHT OBSERVATION. RUC13 IS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF WEAK LIFT IN THE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND OUT AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH. MODELS THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WEST OF NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT FROM NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA INTO ELKO COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NEVADA. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIP SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...GOING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THEN ARIZONA...WITH THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW EXITING EARLY SATURDAY. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE TROUGH WITH TH 500 MB COLD POOL TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD DROP A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY FORM...ALONG WITH SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRYING TO PUSH ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS A LITTLE STRONG WITH ENERGY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS DRY AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH QUIET CONDITIONS DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH AREA MONDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH TO NORTHWEST BY END OF PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW...THUS INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. EC SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY A BIT A WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...BUT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KELY SEEING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 86/90
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
318 AM PST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RADAR THIS MORNING IS DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. THE REMOTE SITE IN WINNEMUCCA IS NOW SHOWING A VISIBILITY OF 4 MILES...AND HAS BEEN IMPROVING. COOP OBSERVER IN WINNEMUCCA REPORTED A QUICK 0.8 INCHES WITH THE MIDNIGHT OBSERVATION. RUC13 IS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF WEAK LIFT IN THE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND OUT AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH. MODELS THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WEST OF NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT FROM NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA INTO ELKO COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NEVADA. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIP SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...GOING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THEN ARIZONA...WITH THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW EXITING EARLY SATURDAY. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE TROUGH WITH TH 500 MB COLD POOL TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD DROP A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY FORM...ALONG WITH SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRYING TO PUSH ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS A LITTLE STRONG WITH ENERGY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS DRY AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH QUIET CONDITIONS DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH AREA MONDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH TO NORTHWEST BY END OF PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW...THUS INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. EC SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY A BIT A WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...BUT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KELY SEEING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NONE. && $$ 86/90
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
942 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 940 AM FRIDAY... THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SLACK GRADIENT OVER THE STATE UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSES WERE DRY AT 850MB...WITH BETTER 850MB MOISTURE LOCATED NOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...AND DRY AT 700MB...WITH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AT 500MB. THERE WAS A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NOTED AT 250MB OVER THE GULF COAST...AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE GOOD JET ALOFT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP AND CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH CLOUDS NUDGING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD GENERALLY STAY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KFAY AND KCTZ...WHILE MORE NOTICEABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT U.S. 64 PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES STILL SHOWED A LOT OF TRANSPARENCY TO THE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF THEM OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO RESULT IN A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...OR SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH MANY OBSERVATIONS WELL INTO THE 20S AND EVEN CLOSE TO FREEZING AT 9 AM. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES FOR KGSO SUGGEST HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S... BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED MIXING ON RAP SOUNDINGS AND THE GOOD INVERSION PRESENT ON THE KGSO 12Z SOUNDING THINK THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE...OR A BLEND BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET...ARE REASONABLE...AND ONLY SHADED TEMPERATURES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE EARLY MORNING TRENDS. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATIVE WOULD BE WARMER...AND WILL WATCH THE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL STAY LOW...SO DESPITE THE WARMTH...SHADED AREAS WILL LIKELY STILL SHOW ONLY A SLOW SNOW MELT. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS FOR A LARGE PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH A RETURN OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET...LOWS WILL BE DICTATED PRIMARILY BY RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS...THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER MIN TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY... THE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER... SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC BACK ACROSS NC/SC INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WAA PATTERN ALOFT RAMPS UP SATURDAY A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 50S (POSSIBLY MAY TOUCH 60 IN THE SOUTH) LATE. VERY MILD AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. A GOOD PART OF SUNDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE DRY AND WARM. HOWEVER... THE CHANCE OFF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMING PARTY SUNNY SUNDAY. THEN OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S EXCEPT 55-60 NW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... IT APPEARS THAT THE TREND IN THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE WARMER WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY. THIS WOULD PLACE MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE SYSTEMS WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LOW PRESSURES PASSAGE MONDAY. THE FAVORED NW PIEDMONT MAY REMAIN IN A CAD PATTERN. IN ADDITION... THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND LEFT (NORTHWEST) OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS WOULD PLACE THE NW PIEDMONT IN THE HIGHEST QPF (0.50 TO 1 INCH) WITH LESSER AMOUNTS (TO LESS THAN 0.25) IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN FOR THE STORM TOTALS. THESE WARMER TRENDS ALSO STRONGLY FAVOR ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN FACT... THERE MAY EVEN BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE WAVE ON MONDAY. THEREFORE... RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. LOWS 35-40 NW... RANGING TO NEAR 50 SE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S NW RANGING TO NEAR 60 SE. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO STAY VERY ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH STORM SYSTEM. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY... THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGIONS BY 12Z/WED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NC. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID CAD EVENT IN THE FAVORED PIEDMONT REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED DRIVEN BY A PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032+ MB OVER NEW ENGLAND 12Z/TUE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE OFFSHORE AS THE STORM LIFTS UP THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THIS PATTERN STRONGLY SUGGESTS CAD BREAKING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE NIGHT WITH A STRONG CAD BOUNDARY LIKELY DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE PIEDMONT. P- TYPE CONCERNS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PIEDMONT TUESDAY - WITH THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED TO BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE PRECIPITATION ONSET. CURRENT LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECASTS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARGUE FOR WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY 30-32 AT THE ONSET IN THE TRIAD TO ROXBORO TUESDAY. THERE ARE A LOT OF IFS AT THE CURRENT TIME (A COUPLE OF WHICH INCLUDE TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL DRAIN INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY. THEREFORE... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FREEZING RAIN... BUT HIGH FOR RAIN DURING THIS EVENT. STAY TUNED. FOR NOW... WE WILL MAINTAIN THE ALL LIQUID FORECAST WITH LOWS 30-35 TUE AND HIGHS 36- 50. INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO WED. LOWS WED 36-48. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 45 NW TO 68 SE. THE ACTIVE PATTERN GETS EVEN MORE INTERESTING LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH FORM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THU-FRI. THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HANG BACK OVER THE PLAINS. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE VERY COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE INTO OUR REGION COURTESY OF LINGERING UPPER RIDGING OVER FL/GA. HOWEVER... SOME MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR CLASSICAL CAD BY FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF HEADED NE. THIS IS THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS THE PIEDMONT OR MOUNTAINS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR P-TYPE ISSUES IN SUCH A PATTERN IF CLASSICAL CAD DEVELOPS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FOR NOW... WE WILL CARRY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY. COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. INCREASING CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. CLOUDY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN. WE WILL OMIT THE CHANCE OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN FOR NOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND THE TIMING OF PRECIP. HIGHS 30S NW TO 40S SE. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 940 AM FRIDAY... THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS ABOVE AVERAGE AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT/MON AND THE SECOND TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ GULF COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WED NIGHT/THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...DJF/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1034 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FRONT STALLS IN OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING ALONG IT SATURDAY. MUCH MILDER SATURDAY. COLD FRONT BRINGS MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SENT AN UPDATE TO INCREASE HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A NON DIURNAL TREND WAS NOTICED OVERNIGHT AND IT WAS 40 DEGREES ALREADY AT 1030 AM. USED SFC OBS AND LAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. POPULATED WIND FROM THE RAP HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS STARTING WITH LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES EXTRAPOLATING WITH NAM WINDS AND BLENDING WITH THE CMC MODEL CLOUD COVER OUTPUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 550 AM UPDATE. RADICALLY ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT MINS AND HOURLIES THIS MORNING UPWARD..AS CLOUDS AND WIND HAVE PREVENTED ANY FREE FALL. STILL BELIEVE MOSTLY A VIRGA SCENARIO WITH ECHOES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...SO HAVE ONLY MORNING FLURRIES UP NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS HAVE A DRY AND WEAK COLD FRONT STALLING AS IT SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY...THEN LIFTING BACK AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR HAS BECOME HISTORY...AND THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS NEW FRONT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF US AS THE WINDS TURN FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE ON TEMP TRENDS DURING THIS MODIFICATION PROCESS...WILL LEAN ON THE WARMER GUIDANCE TODAY...EXCEPT CUT A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THAT IN THE NORTH WHERE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PREVAILING. THE ONE THING ABOUT THE ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LOSE IS THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL CONTINUE DRY THRU TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE TODAY WHILE THE TEMPS RECOVER. FOR TONIGHT...DESPITE THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...THE MODELS APPEAR TOO LOW ON MIN TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND A SOUTHEASTERLY PUFF. WILL LEAN AGAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WAS TEMPTED TO TAKE THE POPS OUT OF PERRY/MORGAN COUNTIES AT THE BREAK POINT FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AT 12Z SATURDAY...BUT THE MODELS LEAVE TOO MUCH EVIDENCE OTHERWISE. LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE EURO IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY...WILL EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A RESURGENCE OF THE MOISTURE IN WHAT WILL BEGIN A PRIMARILY WET PATTERN WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS ORIGINATING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREAS. GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE MOISTURE THAT WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE LOWLAND AREAS ON THE DRIER SIDE. WILL SET THIS MODEL ASIDE FOR NOW...CAUTIOUSLY. SREF SIDES WITH THE GFS. WILL BE CONCERNED WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH IN THE MOISTURE PUSH THAT WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. IN TYPICAL FASHION...THERE WILL BE A SHARP DIVIDING LINE IN THE RAIN SNOW LINE...AND THE TRICK FOR THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TIMING HOW LONG IT TAKES TO GET THE COLD AIR TO TAKE HOLD AND IF IT COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE. AS OF RIGHT NOW...NAM AND EURO ARE GIVING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE SREF PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS LOW. THIS IS LEADING TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK THIS MORNING. FROM A PERSONAL FORECASTING PREFERENCE STAND POINT...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT SREF ON BOARD...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE SOME DAY 3 SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THERE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY LOWERING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW STILL EXIST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS. GFS HAS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN A BIT EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF AND HPC SO THE TIMING OF THIS IS SUSPECT. LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT WV ON TUESDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS...HOWEVER HPC IS SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING OVER CENTRAL WV AND THE LOCATION OF THE LOW COULD HAVE AN AFFECT ON WHETHER WE SEE MOSTLY SNOW OR MOSTLY RAIN. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY... A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS TODAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH LATER TONIGHT. VFR WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 7000-15000 FEET NORTH WITH A FEW MORNING FLURRIES...TO SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE IN SE OHIO SAT. IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SPREADING SEWD THROUGH THE AREA SAT NT AND THEN CONTINUING SEWD...OUT OF THE AREA...DURING SUN. && .EQUIPMENT... PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JMV EQUIPMENT...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1022 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. ALONG WITH THE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL COME SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TEMPS SNEAKING TO FZG NOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST BUT CLOUDS ARE LOWERING A BIT TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP THE 20 POP FOR THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING OVER THE WEST AND EVEN 30 POPS IN THE FAR NW. BUT...AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS WILL BE REAL LIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL JUST BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. PREV... UPDATE AT 830 AM TO ADD IN MENTIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW IN THE FAR SE...WHERE TAIL END OF LLVL JET STREAK...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS MUST BE TEAMING UP TO CREATE A BAND OF VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP OVER YORK/LANC COS. SOME ACCUMS REPORTED. LOW LAYERS OF ATMOS STILL DRY THOUGH...WITH ALL THIS FALLING FROM 5KFT ALOFT. RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS SAY THAT IT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH NOON. UNTIL WINDS BECOME DECIDEDLY WESTERLY. TO BORROW THE EXPRESSION...INTERESTING OR IS IT CONFOUNDING. PREV... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GR LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN PART OF THE CWA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW CREEPING INTO NWRN AREAS LATER TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES MANAGING TO TOP FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. THE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... A DEEPENING LOW WILL SPEED DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH A SURGE OF PRECIP SLIDING UP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF MY FCST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER MY NWRN ZONES WHERE A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE TO JUST RAIN AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 40 IN MOST AREAS. DESPITE THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH...MODEL PROGGED STABILITY AND A STRONG NE LOW LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC WIND INDICATE WE WILL STAY COOL AIR DAMMED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A POTENT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...THE HIGHS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE DAY TO OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DOMINATE THE LOWER 48 TROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIR STAYS ENTRENCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GR LAKES AND NERN US...WITH PA SITTING RIGHT ON THE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE AND NORTHERN CHILL. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LOW WILL PASS SUNDAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DIFFERENCES ARISE QUICKLY FROM THERE WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A LOW THRU VA MONDAY...IMPLYING A GENERAL 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL FOR ABOUT THE SERN 1/2 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA AS IT SPEEDS OFF THE MID ATL COAST. THE GFS/GEFS KEEP THIS WAVE WEAKER AND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THE NAM RUNS OUT OF PANELS WHEN THINGS GET INTERESTING...BUT EARLY MONDAY IT SHOWS MORE OF A LOW THAN THE GFS/GEFS...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE ECMWF. SO I INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY. FROM THERE A MORE IMPORTANT CYCLONE IS MADE TO APPROACH FOR WED...AND THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS. THE ECMWF HAS ITS LOW TRACKING INTO WESTERN PA...BEFORE REDEVELOPING QUICKLY OFF THE MID ATL COAST. THE GFS/GEFS ARE BOTH FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH THE GEFS BEING THE MOST EAST AND THUS THE COLDEST SET OF SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX IS INDICATED BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTCOMES AS WARM AIR FLOODS IN ALOFT...BUT WITH SO MUCH SNOW COVER AND COLD AIR OVER THE GR LAKES AND NE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK WANDERS CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TODAY AT BFD. -SN ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL REACH INTO FAR NW PA THEN BOUNCE BACK N THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING AND WINDS BACKING TO THE S AS THE MINOR RIDGE SLIDES EAST. PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER LATE TONIGHT AT BFD. MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY...AS THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE NRN BORDER. BY AFTERNOON TEMPS WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA BY THEN. SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SE. SOME SNOW LOOKS LIKE A HIGH CHC ACROSS THE SE ON MONDAY...AS FAST MOVING SYSTEMS LIFT NE FROM THE SW STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA. THUS...IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MDT/LNS. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TUE INTO WED...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTS NE IN AN ACTIVE SW FLOW. PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW...BUT AT THE CURRENT TIME...THE COLD AIR IS LIMITED. OUTLOOK... SUN...MVFR/IFR AM. CFROPA. NW FLOW/LOW CLOUDS POSS PM. BREEZY. MON...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT SN AND MVFR/IFR POSS S. TUE...MAINLY VFR...LOWERING CLOUDS AND PRECIP POSS LATE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
851 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. ALONG WITH THE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL COME SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE AT 830 AM TO ADD IN MENTIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW IN THE FAR SE...WHERE TAIL END OF LLVL JET STREAK...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS MUST BE TEAMING UP TO CREATE A BAND OF VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP OVER YORK/LANC COS. SOME ACCUMS REPORTED. LOW LAYERS OF ATMOS STILL DRY THOUGH...WITH ALL THIS FALLING FROM 5KFT ALOFT. RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS SAY THAT IT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH NOON. UNTIL WINDS BECOME DECIDEDLY WESTERLY. TO BORROW THE EXPRESSION...INTERESTING OR IS IT CONFOUNDING. PREV... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GR LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN PART OF THE CWA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW CREEPING INTO NWRN AREAS LATER TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES MANAGING TO TOP FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. THE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... A DEEPENING LOW WILL SPEED DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH A SURGE OF PRECIP SLIDING UP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF MY FCST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER MY NWRN ZONES WHERE A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE TO JUST RAIN AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 40 IN MOST AREAS. DESPITE THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH...MODEL PROGGED STABILITY AND A STRONG NE LOW LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC WIND INDICATE WE WILL STAY COOL AIR DAMMED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A POTENT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...THE HIGHS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE DAY TO OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DOMINATE THE LOWER 48 TROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIR STAYS ENTRENCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GR LAKES AND NERN US...WITH PA SITTING RIGHT ON THE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE AND NORTHERN CHILL. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LOW WILL PASS SUNDAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DIFFERENCES ARISE QUICKLY FROM THERE WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A LOW THRU VA MONDAY...IMPLYING A GENERAL 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL FOR ABOUT THE SERN 1/2 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA AS IT SPEEDS OFF THE MID ATL COAST. THE GFS/GEFS KEEP THIS WAVE WEAKER AND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THE NAM RUNS OUT OF PANELS WHEN THINGS GET INTERESTING...BUT EARLY MONDAY IT SHOWS MORE OF A LOW THAN THE GFS/GEFS...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE ECMWF. SO I INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY. FROM THERE A MORE IMPORTANT CYCLONE IS MADE TO APPROACH FOR WED...AND THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS. THE ECMWF HAS ITS LOW TRACKING INTO WESTERN PA...BEFORE REDEVELOPING QUICKLY OFF THE MID ATL COAST. THE GFS/GEFS ARE BOTH FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH THE GEFS BEING THE MOST EAST AND THUS THE COLDEST SET OF SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX IS INDICATED BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTCOMES AS WARM AIR FLOODS IN ALOFT...BUT WITH SO MUCH SNOW COVER AND COLD AIR OVER THE GR LAKES AND NE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK WANDERS CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TODAY AT BFD. -SN ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT MDT AND LNS...BUT THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. COLD FRONT MOVING SE TODAY WILL WORK BACK TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...THUS MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER LATE TONIGHT AT BFD. MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE. AGAIN...PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA EARLY...THEN BY AFTERNOON TEMPS WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA BY THEN. SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SE. SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE ON MONDAY...AS FAST MOVING SYSTEMS LIFT NE FROM THE SW STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TUE INTO WED...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTS NE IN AN ACTIVE SW FLOW. PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW...BUT AT THE CURRENT TIME...THE COLD AIR IS LIMITED. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE NW...AND AGAIN LATE. SUN...MVFR/IFR AM. CFROPA. NW FLOW/LOW CLOUDS POSS PM. BREEZY. MON...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT SN AND MVFR/IFR POSS S. TUE...MAINLY VFR...LOWERING CLOUDS AND PRECIP POSS LATE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1252 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 .AVIATION... THE LOW STRATUS CEILINGS THAT PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO LIFT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. GRADUAL CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON HEATING FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ALL TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCSH THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MAINLY FOR ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ASSIGN VCTS. BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SATURATED GROUNDS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY INTERIOR AND WEST WITH TERMINALS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED INCLUDING KTMB AND KAPF AND INCLUDED IN THOSE TAF`S. 60 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014/ UPDATE... HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED SURFACE BASED INVERSION THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY MEAGER BUT WITH APPROACH OF THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADD TO SOME OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS. THE HRRR INITIALIZED VERY WELL THIS MORNING AND SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 16Z MOSTLY EAST OF U.S. 27 AND NORTH OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. THIS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING AND THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT HOWEVER VERY IMPRESSIVE SO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY THREAT AT THIS TIME. KOB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014/ AVIATION... FEEL THAT BY 12Z...EASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE IN MVFR CIGS...WITH NAPLES CLINGING TO IFR STRATUS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING...AND WENT ACROSS-THE-BOARD VFR BY 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BEYOND 6 HOURS OUT...CONFIDENCE WASNT QUITE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER VCSH WORDING. TONIGHT...MODELS HINTING AT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS EPISODE OVER AT LEAST INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT EASTERN TERMINALS RESTRICTION-FREE...BUT KTMB WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. AT NAPLES...VSBY AND CIGS BOTH LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 6Z OR SO SATURDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND NORTHEAST TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. /SK PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)... THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS PERSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY INDICATES A GRADUAL DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS S FL/KEYS/STRAITS THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD OVER THE STATE TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REFLECT THIS DRYING TREND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AFTER ANOTHER WET START THIS MORNING. MODEL PWS DECREASE FROM AROUND AND JUST UNDER THE 2" MARK THIS MORNING TO THE 1-1.5" RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH THIS DRYING TREND WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM EAST TO WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG WARMER THAN AVERAGE EACH DAY. FOG WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLEARING...NEAR CALM WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NAM12 CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REFLECT THIS AND ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SREF PROBABILITY OF VSBYS DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE RANGE FROM 60-90%. LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)... THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND INDICATES DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY AND LOWS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 60S EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS (LOW 70S FOR COASTAL/METRO LOCATIONS). GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND STALLING NORTH OF OUR AREA. MARINE... A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY/ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 69 83 69 82 / 20 10 10 - FORT LAUDERDALE 71 82 73 82 / 20 10 10 - MIAMI 71 83 72 82 / 20 10 10 - NAPLES 66 84 66 84 / 20 10 10 - && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
255 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 .DISCUSSION... 1046 AM CST THE NEW 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN ALL SNOW AND A MIX WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR STREATOR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO. THIS WILL MAKE THINGS TRICKY IN TERMS OF TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE METRO CHICAGO AREA...AS IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FROM JUST NORTH OF THE TRANSITION LINE...TROUGH THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO. A QUICK LOOK AT MODEL DERIVED CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY SNOW. THE MOST NOTABLE IS THE STRONG BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN PROXIMITY TO A DECENT LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV. SIMILARLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DGZ...WITH EVEN A LITTLE CAPE NOTED FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650 MB. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE BAND OF STRONG FGEN...WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS SATURDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700 MB AROUND 0 TO -4 DEGREES CELSIUS...SUGGESTS THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF GOOD AGGREGATION OF SNOW FLAKES...WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW. ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE ALL OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAINLY HEAVY SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AREAS COULD RUN IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WINTER MIX IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY MORNING...SO AMOUNTS COULD BE TAMPERED SOME THERE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE WARING UPGRADE IS ACROSS WINNEBAGO AND BOONE COUNTIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE AMOUNTS MAY REMAIN JUST UNDER 6 INCHES. FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES WE WILL GO TO AN ADVISORY. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IN EXCESS OF 0.25" IN ADDITION TO SNOW WILL RESULT IN AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LIVINGSTON...KANKAKEE COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS AND LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES IN INDIANA. SOUTH OF THESE COUNTIES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW LONG SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL THAT BY THE TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BEGINS SATURDAY MORNING THESE AREAS COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...THUS LIMITING THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE SOME DECENT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND SOME SNOW TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WE CHOSE TO LEAVE THESE AREAS IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH...AND WE WILL REASSESS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. KJB //PREV DISCUSSION... 342 AM CST THIS MORNING... THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO UNFOLD...WITH THE FOCUS TURNING AWAY FROM THE PARADE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MORE CLASSIC-STYLE WINTER SYSTEMS. THE MORNING WILL START WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL/IN. TEMPS TO THE NORTH ARE IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S AND SOUTH MUCH WARMER AIR WAS PRESENT WITH SFC OBS IN THE LOW 30S. IR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME COOLING WITH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE SUGGESTIVE OF ANY PRECIP BEFORE 12Z. SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN IOWA...AND HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE THIS FEATURE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AID IN SHARPENING UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN IL BECOME NORTHERLY AND BY TONIGHT TURN NORTHEASTERLY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE THROUGH THE AFTN FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF A LASALLE TO KANKAKEE LINE. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A SLOWER DEPARTURE TO THE SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WOULD LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO A SLOWER/STRONGER EVOLUTION TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS SOME PACIFIC ORIGINS...THE QPF ASSOCIATED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE REFLECTED WITH HIGHER VALUES. MODELS OF LATE HAVE STRUGGLED WITH MAX TEMPS...AND TODAY IS A CHALLENGE WITH HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. THAT BEING SAID...FEEL TEMPS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPR TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWFA...LOW 20S NORTH OF I-80...AND NEARING MID 20S SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO KANKAKEE LINE. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP FOR THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOWER DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO STEADILY DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE AFTN...WITH JUST MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MID-EVENING. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATE LESS THAN 1" NORTH OF I-80 AND TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 1-2" THROUGH LATE AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL DEMONSTRATE COLD ENOUGH TEMPS IN THE LLVLS TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH AFTN...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHARPENING BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE...HIGH. TONIGHT... SFC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE HAS A LOBE OF VORTICITY ROUNDING THE AXIS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW OVER THE OZARKS LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION PROCESS...AND PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6-9Z SAT...EXPECT ALL PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN AS SNOW. SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER SOME WARMING IS NOTED IN PROFILES NEAR PNT/IKK/LAF. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPR LEVELS. SO HAVE TEMPS REMAINING NEAR STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS JUST FALLING A FEW DEGREES. THEN AFT 9Z IT APPEARS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWFA...ALLOWING SOME FREEZING RAIN TO MIX INTO THE SNOW. IN ADDITION SOME BETTER FORCING DOES TAKE SHAPE SOUTH OF I-88...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF UP TO 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. SATURDAY... FURTHER NORTH TREND CONTINUES TO BE DEMONSTRATED AMONGST THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS. HI-RES LOCAL WRF HAS THE SFC LOW ARRIVING OVER CENTRAL IL JUST AFT DAYBREAK SAT...WITH THE 850MB LOW WELL NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LASALLE TO CRYSTAL LAKE. IF THIS FURTHER NORTH PATH VERIFIES...THE AXIS OF BETTER SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY BE DISPLACED NORTH FROM ITS CURRENT PATH...AND SETUP FROM LEE/OGLE COUNTIES STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE/NORTHERN COOK COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS ARND 6-8". SOUTH OF THIS AXIS TEMPS APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A RESULT...AND THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. COULD SEE IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWFA A PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN SAT LATE MORNING...HOWEVER GIVEN FROZEN SUB-SFC CONDS...ANY LIQUID WOULD LIKELY FREEZE ON IMPACT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE CONSISTENT...WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE SAT IN THE FAVORED SOUTHEAST AREAS. BY EARLY AFTN THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR MAY EXTEND FROM LASALLE TO GARY AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THE BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SAT AFTN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD AID IN EJECTING THE WINTER STORM TO THE EAST WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SAT EVENING. ANY LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE SAT AFTN SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO LIGHT SNOW. OPTED TO HOLD ONTO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH A LITTLE LONGER. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL BE LOOKING AT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ARND 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES. WITH THE NORTHWARD TREND IN SOLUTIONS...THIS COULD RESULT IN NEEDING THE WARNING FURTHER NORTH...AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE WATCH GOING TO AN ADVISORY. SO WITH THE LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO THE WATCH A LITTLE LONGER AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO MAKE SOME FURTHER ASSESSMENT. TEMPS SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWFA...TO NEAR 30 FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOW/MID 30S FOR SOUTHEAST CWFA. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. BEACHLER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET ALBEIT COLD WEATHER THIS PERIOD. H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C SUNDAY...THEN WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO MONDAY MORNING UNDER A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE TEENS. TUESDAY... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE NORTH PAC SOUTH OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS SOCAL/BAJA EARLY MONDAY...THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND LIFT FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WIDE OPEN GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE GEFS INDICATES AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATION PWATS...BUT THIS HIGH MOISTURE STAYS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE LOW TRACK IN GENERAL IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR SEEING HEAVY SNOW INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. BROAD AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG MIDLEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE COLUMN...HOWEVER SUSPECT THAT GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING MOISTURE IN THE DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE RESULTING QPF...WHICH FALLS WELL NORTH OF THE H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS NOTED MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE EVENING AND MIGHT BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE UPPER WAVE COMES IN POSITIVELY TILTED WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DPVA. CONCEPTUALLY...SEEMS THAT GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY OVERDOING THE LOCAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. STILL A WAYS OUT THOUGH AND AM CONCERNED THAT THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED WHICH MAY THEN LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS...THOUGH THIS SEEMS MORE OFTEN TO BE THE CASE WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ANOTHER STRONG AND COLD HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ON WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE EXPECTED. SHOULD BE DRY THOUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN PER GFS/GEFS. DEUBELBEISS && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIG ABOVE 1500 FT THIS AFTERNOON. * SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY-MID-EVENING...INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. * IFR VIS/CIG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SNOW ROUGHLY 10Z-16/17Z. * LOW CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF SLEET AT MDW SAT MORNING...MORE LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH AT GYY. * LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY AT/UNDER 10 KT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT LATER IN THE DAY. RATZER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WHICH STRETCHES SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG THIS ZONE THIS AFTERNOON MAY DRIFT NORTH SLOWLY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT DOES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW THREAT OF REACHING THE TERMINALS BEFORE NIGHTFALL. SNOW DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP BY MID-EVENING AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW PERSISTING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST/MOST PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIP PRODUCTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY 10Z-18Z OR SO...WITH A PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RELATIVELY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG A SWATH FROM KVYS TO THE CHICAGO METRO TERMINALS. RFD TO THE NORTH HAS A LOWER VLIFR POTENTIAL...WHILE GYY MAY SEE SNOW CHANGE TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A TIME MID/LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VIS AS LOW AS 1/4SM-1/2SM AND CIGS AROUND 500 FT POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIEST SNOW SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW INTENSITY THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS FORCING WEAKENS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SATURDAYS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AT/BELOW 10 KT THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WAVE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WINDS WILL THEN VEER MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BECOMING STRONGER WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. RATZER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ONSET TIME. MDW LIKELY TO BE 1-2 HRS EARLIER THAN ORD. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOWEST CIG/VIS AND BEST ACCUMULATION WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z-17Z SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR OCCURRING. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN SLEET OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS MDW/ORD. * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS/SPEEDS THROUGH PERIOD. RATZER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES EARLY. MVFR IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVE. SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR LIKELY. TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY DURING A PERIOD IN THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW. THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY. MTF && .MARINE... 255 PM CST HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THEN MERGE WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE MUCH CALMER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PAST SEVERAL WEEK. ALSO...EXTENSIVE BROKEN ICE COVER OVER THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE LAKE WILL KEEP WAVES NEARLY CALM WHILE SOLID ICE OVER THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE WILL ELIMINATE ANY WAVE ACTION. MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE LAKE WILL STILL SEE WAVE ACTION AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FT AS MODERATE...GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP...POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE FORCE BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012- ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032...9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004...9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY. IN...WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002...9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 231 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 215 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2014 Band of light snow extending west through east over about the northern one half of the forecast area associated with persistent isentropic lift noted on the 290k surface early this afternoon. With time, the band will shift slowly north and east while the weather system taking shape over the southern plains moves into eastern OK by late tonight. Accumulations with this band of snow from this morning into early this afternoon have been in the 1 to locally 2 inch range. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday Significant snow and ice over parts of central and west central Illinois late tonight into Saturday the main forecast challenge during this period. A Winter Storm Warning will be in effect from late this evening through Saturday for areas roughly along and west of a Jacksonville to Lincoln to Bloomington line. Further to the south and east will add an advisory for late this evening through the noon hour of Saturday for the threat of a wintry mix which will change to rain by afternoon. Models this period in decent agreement with the surface boundary expected to make a trip north tonight into Saturday morning. The GFS appears to be too fast with the NAM, ECMWF and SREF all clustered over parts of east central Illinois. The northward trend continues from previous model runs resulting in a north and west adjustment to the freezing rain area late tonight and especially during the morning hours of Saturday. Still appears that around a quarter of an inch of ice will be possible from Jacksonville to Lincoln to near Bloomington. Further to the northwest, the threat for heavy snow continues, especially north and west of Peoria where 6 to 8 inches of snow will accumulate by late Saturday afternoon. Further to the southeast, it appears enough warm air will advect north into south central and southeast Illinois to change any wintry mix to rain Saturday morning with afternoon tempertures along and south of I70 closing in on 50 degrees! If the low should continue its north and west adjustment in future runs, we will have to shift the threat for significant ice and snow further northwest as well. One parameter models have been rather consistent on is the depiction of a coupled jet structure at 300 mb tomorrow morning into the early afternoon hours which would enhance the lift over west central and central illinois with a corresponding increase in precip rates. 4km hi res model radar simulations seem to pick up on this later tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours with a more "convective" look to the banded precip as it tracks quickly to the northeast early in the afternoon. Models suggest lingering rain and snow in the east and southeast tomorrow evening as the upper wave shifts away from the area. Not liking what the lastest ECMWF is depicting as it keeps the frontal boundary further west with additional wave development along the front with precip holding thru the night in southeast IL. Will have to see if other models follow its solution for later Sat. night. If they do, we will need to keep precip going longer across far east central and southeast Illinois into Sunday morning. But for now, since this was not showing up on previous runs, will side more with the progressive GFS solution in taking the precip to the east of our forecast area by late Saturday evening. Colder weather settles in for the remainder of the period as another Polar high shifts southeast into the region. Temperatures more of a challenge later in the weekend, especially if we have a decent snow cover across the area. Tried to go at or below most of the guidance during this period with the coldest morning temperatures late Sunday night into Monday when the high is positioned right over our area. LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday Major storm system expected to affect parts of the area Tuesday into Tuesday night...followed by another very cold air mass for the end of the week. Next system is expected to move out of the Southern Plains and into the Tennessee Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night. Thermal profiles suggest that precipitation should be mostly snow. There remains some substantial spread in the solutions, but it is looking like significant amounts of snow may be possible over a portion of central or southeast Illinois. Run to run consistency has been poor and the forecast will be honed as Tuesday approaches. Cold air will advect in behind the system with overnight lows around zero or lower north of U.S. Highway 36 Thursday and Friday mornings. Short Term...Smith Long Term....Barker && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1102 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2014 Latest NAM and HRRR continue to indicate weak disturbances enhancing general area of lift over forecast area. They both suggest a lull this afternoon prior to next wave bringing in precip this evening. Another lull after 06z is suggected before main event on Saturday. Models have trended warmer and suggest that a variety of precip types will be possible. Will generally follow precip type suggested by NAM, but with a slightly warmer scenario given the model trends. Will keep generally MVFR with occasional IFR Cigs today and then keep IFR conditions in place beginning this evening with the next wave of precip. Wind direction will depend on how far north front pushes ahead of the Saturday`s sfc system which remains in flux. However, speeds should be on the low side. Barker && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>050. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to Noon CST Saturday FOR ILZ044>046-051>057-061. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1153 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 .DISCUSSION... 1046 AM CST THE NEW 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN ALL SNOW AND A MIX WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR STREATOR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO. THIS WILL MAKE THINGS TRICKY IN TERMS OF TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE METRO CHICAGO AREA...AS IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FROM JUST NORTH OF THE TRANSITION LINE...TROUGH THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO. A QUICK LOOK AT MODEL DERIVED CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY SNOW. THE MOST NOTABLE IS THE STRONG BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN PROXIMITY TO A DECENT LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV. SIMILARLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DGZ...WITH EVEN A LITTLE CAPE NOTED FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650 MB. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE BAND OF STRONG FGEN...WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS SATURDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700 MB AROUND 0 TO -4 DEGREES CELSIUS...SUGGESTS THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF GOOD AGGREGATION OF SNOW FLAKES...WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW. ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE ALL OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAINLY HEAVY SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AREAS COULD RUN IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WINTER MIX IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY MORNING...SO AMOUNTS COULD BE TAMPERED SOME THERE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE WARING UPGRADE IS ACROSS WINNEBAGO AND BOONE COUNTIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE AMOUNTS MAY REMAIN JUST UNDER 6 INCHES. FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES WE WILL GO TO AN ADVISORY. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IN EXCESS OF 0.25" IN ADDITION TO SNOW WILL RESULT IN AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LIVINGSTON...KANKAKEE COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS AND LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES IN INDIANA. SOUTH OF THESE COUNTIES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW LONG SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL THAT BY THE TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BEGINS SATURDAY MORNING THESE AREAS COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...THUS LIMITING THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE SOME DECENT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND SOME SNOW TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WE CHOSE TO LEAVE THESE AREAS IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH...AND WE WILL REASSESS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. KJB //PREV DISCUSSION... 342 AM CST THIS MORNING... THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO UNFOLD...WITH THE FOCUS TURNING AWAY FROM THE PARADE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MORE CLASSIC-STYLE WINTER SYSTEMS. THE MORNING WILL START WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL/IN. TEMPS TO THE NORTH ARE IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S AND SOUTH MUCH WARMER AIR WAS PRESENT WITH SFC OBS IN THE LOW 30S. IR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME COOLING WITH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE SUGGESTIVE OF ANY PRECIP BEFORE 12Z. SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN IOWA...AND HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE THIS FEATURE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AID IN SHARPENING UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN IL BECOME NORTHERLY AND BY TONIGHT TURN NORTHEASTERLY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE THROUGH THE AFTN FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF A LASALLE TO KANKAKEE LINE. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A SLOWER DEPARTURE TO THE SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WOULD LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO A SLOWER/STRONGER EVOLUTION TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS SOME PACIFIC ORIGINS...THE QPF ASSOCIATED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE REFLECTED WITH HIGHER VALUES. MODELS OF LATE HAVE STRUGGLED WITH MAX TEMPS...AND TODAY IS A CHALLENGE WITH HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. THAT BEING SAID...FEEL TEMPS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPR TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWFA...LOW 20S NORTH OF I-80...AND NEARING MID 20S SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO KANKAKEE LINE. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP FOR THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOWER DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO STEADILY DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE AFTN...WITH JUST MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MID-EVENING. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATE LESS THAN 1" NORTH OF I-80 AND TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 1-2" THROUGH LATE AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL DEMONSTRATE COLD ENOUGH TEMPS IN THE LLVLS TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH AFTN...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHARPENING BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE...HIGH. TONIGHT... SFC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE HAS A LOBE OF VORTICITY ROUNDING THE AXIS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW OVER THE OZARKS LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION PROCESS...AND PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6-9Z SAT...EXPECT ALL PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN AS SNOW. SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT THIS...HOWEVER SOME WARMING IS NOTED IN PROFILES NEAR PNT/IKK/LAF. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPR LEVELS. SO HAVE TEMPS REMAINING NEAR STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS JUST FALLING A FEW DEGREES. THEN AFT 9Z IT APPEARS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWFA...ALLOWING SOME FREEZING RAIN TO MIX INTO THE SNOW. IN ADDITION SOME BETTER FORCING DOES TAKE SHAPE SOUTH OF I-88...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF UP TO 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. SATURDAY... FURTHER NORTH TREND CONTINUES TO BE DEMONSTRATED AMONGST THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS. HI-RES LOCAL WRF HAS THE SFC LOW ARRIVING OVER CENTRAL IL JUST AFT DAYBREAK SAT...WITH THE 850MB LOW WELL NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LASALLE TO CRYSTAL LAKE. IF THIS FURTHER NORTH PATH VERIFIES...THE AXIS OF BETTER SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY BE DISPLACED NORTH FROM ITS CURRENT PATH...AND SETUP FROM LEE/OGLE COUNTIES STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE/NORTHERN COOK COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS ARND 6-8". SOUTH OF THIS AXIS TEMPS APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A RESULT...AND THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. COULD SEE IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWFA A PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN SAT LATE MORNING...HOWEVER GIVEN FROZEN SUB-SFC CONDS...ANY LIQUID WOULD LIKELY FREEZE ON IMPACT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE CONSISTENT...WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE SAT IN THE FAVORED SOUTHEAST AREAS. BY EARLY AFTN THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR MAY EXTEND FROM LASALLE TO GARY AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THE BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SAT AFTN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD AID IN EJECTING THE WINTER STORM TO THE EAST WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SAT EVENING. ANY LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE SAT AFTN SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO LIGHT SNOW. OPTED TO HOLD ONTO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH A LITTLE LONGER. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL BE LOOKING AT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ARND 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES. WITH THE NORTHWARD TREND IN SOLUTIONS...THIS COULD RESULT IN NEEDING THE WARNING FURTHER NORTH...AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE WATCH GOING TO AN ADVISORY. SO WITH THE LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO THE WATCH A LITTLE LONGER AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO MAKE SOME FURTHER ASSESSMENT. TEMPS SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWFA...TO NEAR 30 FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOW/MID 30S FOR SOUTHEAST CWFA. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. BEACHLER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET ALBEIT COLD WEATHER THIS PERIOD. H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C SUNDAY...THEN WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO MONDAY MORNING UNDER A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE TEENS. TUESDAY... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE NORTH PAC SOUTH OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS SOCAL/BAJA EARLY MONDAY...THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND LIFT FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WIDE OPEN GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE GEFS INDICATES AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATION PWATS...BUT THIS HIGH MOISTURE STAYS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE LOW TRACK IN GENERAL IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR SEEING HEAVY SNOW INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. BROAD AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG MIDLEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE COLUMN...HOWEVER SUSPECT THAT GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING MOISTURE IN THE DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE RESULTING QPF...WHICH FALLS WELL NORTH OF THE H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE. STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS NOTED MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE EVENING AND MIGHT BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE UPPER WAVE COMES IN POSITIVELY TILTED WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DPVA. CONCEPTUALLY...SEEMS THAT GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY OVERDOING THE LOCAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. STILL A WAYS OUT THOUGH AND AM CONCERNED THAT THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED WHICH MAY THEN LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS...THOUGH THIS SEEMS MORE OFTEN TO BE THE CASE WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ANOTHER STRONG AND COLD HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ON WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE EXPECTED. SHOULD BE DRY THOUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN PER GFS/GEFS. DEUBELBEISS && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY-MID-EVENING...INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. * IFR VIS/CIG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SNOW ROUGHLY 10Z-16/17Z. * LOW CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF SLEET AT MDW SAT MORNING...MORE LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH AT GYY. * LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY AT/UNDER 10 KT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT LATER IN THE DAY. RATZER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WHICH STRETCHES SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG THIS ZONE THIS AFTERNOON MAY DRIFT NORTH SLOWLY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT DOES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW THREAT OF REACHING THE TERMINALS BEFORE NIGHTFALL. SNOW DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP BY MID-EVENING AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW PERSISTING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST/MOST PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIP PRODUCTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY 10Z-18Z OR SO...WITH A PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RELATIVELY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG A SWATH FROM KVYS TO THE CHICAGO METRO TERMINALS. RFD TO THE NORTH HAS A LOWER VLIFR POTENTIAL...WHILE GYY MAY SEE SNOW CHANGE TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A TIME MID/LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VIS AS LOW AS 1/4SM-1/2SM AND CIGS AROUND 500 FT POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIEST SNOW SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW INTENSITY THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS FORCING WEAKENS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SATURDAYS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AT/BELOW 10 KT THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WAVE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WINDS WILL THEN VEER MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BECOMING STRONGER WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. RATZER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ONSET TIME. MDW LIKELY TO BE 1-2 HRS EARLIER THAN ORD. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOWEST CIG/VIS AND BEST ACCUMULATION WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z-17Z SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR OCCURRING. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN SLEET OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS MDW/ORD. * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS/SPEEDS THROUGH PERIOD. RATZER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES EARLY. MVFR IMPROVING THROUGH THE EVE. SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR LIKELY. TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY DURING A PERIOD IN THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW. THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY. MTF && .MARINE... 208 AM CST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT QUIET OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO MUCH OF THIS WINTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE BY AFTERNOON EASING WIND SPEEDS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FROM THE OZARKS LATER TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ITS BACKSIDE WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SHORE...MUCH OF THE WAVE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT QUITE A LOT OF ICE STILL EXISTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN A DAMPENING OF THE FULL FETCH DOWN THE LAKE. THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE AND WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER WAVES LIKELY MORE IN THE 4-7 FT AREA...NAMELY ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. BUT UNTIL A BETTER ESTIMATE CAN BE MADE...NAMELY FROM SATELLITE /MEANING THE NEED FOR A CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKY/...WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE THE BEST FORECAST FROM THE MOST RECENT ICE COVERAGE. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THERE HAS BEEN SIGNAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF A DEEPENING LOW MOVING FROM THE MID- SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE IN THAT TIME. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012- ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032...9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004...9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. WINTER STORM WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039...MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. IN...WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002...9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. WINTER STORM WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1102 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 934 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2014 Have made changes to grids and zones this morning to reflect earlier saturation and onset of precip and have tweeked other elements to reflect. Light overrunning precipitation across cold front over southern Illinois will continue today. Boundary Layer has saturadted faster than earlier model indicated and snow is reaching ground throughout central Illinois. Have updated to reflect this as well as increase accumulation for today - still an inch or less though. Barker && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1102 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2014 Latest NAM and HRRR continue to indicate weak disturbances enhancing general area of lift over forecast area. They both suggest a lull this afternoon prior to next wave bringing in precip this evening. Another lull after 06z is suggected before main event on Saturday. Models have trended warmer and suggest that a variety of precip types will be possible. Will generally follow precip type suggested by NAM, but with a slightly warmer scenario given the model trends. Will keep generally MVFR with occasional IFR Cigs today and then keep IFR conditions in place beginning this evening with the next wave of precip. Wind direction will depend on how far north front pushes ahead of the Saturday`s sfc system which remains in flux. However, speeds should be on the low side. Barker && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 330 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2014 Will continue the winter storm watch along and north of I-72 from 9 pm this Friday evening until 6 pm Saturday. 00Z models continue to shift mixed precipitation further nw and continued to adjust the forecast in that direction with heaviest snowfall of 5-7 inches nw of the IL river while heaviest ice band of two to three tenths is between I-55 and I-72. Mainly rain over southeast IL tonight and Saturday with little or no snow/ice accumulations south of I-70. SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Early morning surface map shows frontal boundary over central IN into southeast IL near I-70 and into southern MO and extends to 997 mb low pressure over along the northern TX/NM border. Weak 1022 mb high pressure was near the IA/SD border. Temps early this morning range from upper teens nw of the IL river to the mid 30s from I-70 se. Radar mosaic shows very light snow bands or flurries over northern MO and moving east into west central IL. Frontal boundary near I-70 to push slowly south through southeast IL during the morning and then be quasi-stationary for a time this afternoon nw of the Ohio river and south of highway 50 before starting to lift back north into southeast IL tonight. Weak isentropic lift to occur north of this boundary today to help develop light snow during the day and be more likely in the afternoon and mainly occur north of I-70. If light precipitation occurs in southeast IL this afternoon would be some light rain too. Any snow accumulations today should less than 1 inch and mainly from I-72 north. Highs today contrast from around 20F by Galesburg to near 40F at Lawrenceville. Low pressure near the TX/NM border to eject ne into the Ozarks by 12Z/6 am Sat with 1006 mb low pressure and into central IL by 18Z/noon Sat and to the southern lower MI border by 00Z/6 pm Sat. More widespread and heavier precipitation to develop during tonight from sw to ne especially overnight and Saturday morning. Most of precipitation starts as snow this evening north of I-72 with a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow south of I-72 while mainly rain south of I-70. Mixed precipitation shifts nw toward the IL river by Saturday morning while just rain falls south of I-72 for a time Saturday morning while a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow north of I-72 to the IL river. Mainly snow falls nw by Knox and Stark counties during this event. Colder air starts moving in from the w/nw during Saturday afternoon changing the mix precipitation back to snow west of I-55 though still a mix over east central IL east of I-55 and rain in southeast IL. Snowfall amounts of 4-7 inches over the IL river valley while 1-3 inches over central CWA. Potential is there for a quarter inch or more of ice se of the IL river to along I-72 while ice accumulations less than a tenth inch from Charleston/Mattoon south with little or no snow or ice south of I-70. Highs Sat range from around 30F nw of IL river to near 50F far se at Lawrenceville. Light precipitation changes to light snow Saturday evening over eastern IL as it diminishes with less than 1 inch of accumulations. Most of light snow to be east of IL overnight Sat night as colder air ushers in. 1033 mb high pressure moves over central IL by midnight Sunday night and ensures dry and colder weather from Sunday through Monday. Highs Sunday contrast from 10-15F over IL river valley to 25-30F in southeast IL. Lows to get to zero to 5 below zero northern counties Sunday night where snow pack expected while 10-15F southeast of I-70. Highs Monday range from upper teens north of I-70 to upper 20s to around 30F in southeast IL. LONG TERM...Monday night through Thursday night Extended models show a fairly strong southern stream storm system ejecting ne from the southern plains into central KY/TN by sunset Tue. Potential is there for another winter storm to impact parts of central and southeast IL where mostly snow to fall this time around Tue and Tue night with several inches while mixed precipitation appears to be se of highway 50 on Tuesday. Storm system pulls away on Wed as snow diminishes during Wed morning and ushers in another arctic air mass as temps slip into the single digits below zero Wed night and Thu night over much of central IL. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH from 9 PM CST this evening through Saturday afternoon FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1258 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 HAVE JUST SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO ALLOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH TEMPS NOW GENERALLY AROUND ZERO...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES ABOVE 20 BELOW. TONIGHT...WILL BE EVALUATING THE NEED FOR YET ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE AREA...EVEN AS SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WAS KEEPING MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND CLEAR...BUT SOME CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE RAP DOES SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND TWENTY BELOW AS OF 3 AM...WITH THE CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS UP AS THEY MOVE IN. SOME FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED AS WELL OUT OF THESE CLOUDS AND WE WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TODAY. WE WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL GOING ACROSS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS MAY BE CANCELLED AROUND 10 AM. A SHORTWAVE AND WAA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE INCREASED POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT...AND EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE...AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN CAUSING TEMPS TO RISE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...MAINLY UNDER AN INCH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO THE TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE E/NE SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL US. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NRN WI THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL CONUS BY TUE AND LIFT TO THE NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY WED. THE NWD EXTEND OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS STILL IN QUESTION AND COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHLAND...AND WILL LIKELY JUST LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. THE OTHER CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES LIKELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 VFR UNTIL 09Z WHEN MVFR CIGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BEGINS TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. THE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM W TO E AFTER 15Z FOLLOWED BY AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -11 14 -11 5 / 30 40 10 0 INL -14 6 -18 3 / 20 20 10 0 BRD -8 14 -16 7 / 40 40 0 0 HYR -14 20 -13 6 / 10 40 20 0 ASX -10 18 -8 7 / 10 30 20 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LE SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1132 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WAS KEEPING MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND CLEAR...BUT SOME CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE RAP DOES SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND TWENTY BELOW AS OF 3 AM...WITH THE CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS UP AS THEY MOVE IN. SOME FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED AS WELL OUT OF THESE CLOUDS AND WE WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TODAY. WE WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL GOING ACROSS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS MAY BE CANCELLED AROUND 10 AM. A SHORTWAVE AND WAA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE INCREASED POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT...AND EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE...AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN CAUSING TEMPS TO RISE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...MAINLY UNDER AN INCH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO THE TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE E/NE SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL US. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NRN WI THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL CONUS BY TUE AND LIFT TO THE NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY WED. THE NWD EXTEND OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS STILL IN QUESTION AND COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHLAND...AND WILL LIKELY JUST LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. THE OTHER CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES LIKELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 VFR UNTIL 09Z WHEN MVFR CIGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BEGINS TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. THE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM W TO E AFTER 15Z FOLLOWED BY AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 2 -11 14 -11 / 0 30 40 10 INL 1 -14 6 -18 / 10 20 20 10 BRD 4 -8 14 -16 / 0 40 40 0 HYR 5 -14 20 -13 / 0 10 40 20 ASX 7 -10 18 -8 / 0 10 30 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021- 025-026-033>038. WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1021 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 .UPDATE... LOW STRATUS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/W OF I-55. STRONGER WINDS/SLOWER MOISTURE RETURN/HIGHER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT KEPT FOG FROM FORMING SO WE ONLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING OUT AND CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT TO THE W/NW TODAY WHERE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY COLDER IN THE E DUE TO A H925 TEMPERATURE TROUGH BUT RUC INDICATES TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 8-10 DEG C RANGE. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLEARING SKIES TODAY WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN THE N TO LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS ABOVE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE. DID NOT MODIFY HIGHS AS THEY LOOK CURRENTLY ON TRACK. SLIGHTLY MODIFIED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE E CURRENTLY AND MIXING OUT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN CENTRAL/E MS TODAY. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/ && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH BKN/OVC040 STRATUS DECK OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TAF SITES WITH LESS CLOUD COVER FOR EAST TERMINALS AT KGTR/KMEI/KHBG. STRATUS DECK WILL MIX OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO SCT/BKN040-050 ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR KHBG/KMEI/KGTR DOWN TO 3SM. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IF VIS CAN POTENTIALLY GET LOWER...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KHBG. /ALLEN/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOR THE PERIOD THE ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE THE WARMING TREND WITH SOME CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ENTRANCE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN POPS AND TEMPS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE REGION...WHICH WAS PUSHING A MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE ARKLAMISS. THERE WAS GOOD MIXING OCCURRING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO DAWN ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WAS REDUCING OUR CHANCES OF ANY FOG ISSUES FOR THIS MORNING. SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ANY MORNING PATCHY FOG. ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WAS AIDING IN SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS TO REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. REGIONAL CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO PICK UP ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. LVORI SHOWED SOME WIDESPREAD 10S ACROSS THE REGION. WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHWEST DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WAS PICKED UP TO A LIMITED EXTENT BY THE LOCAL WRF. PWATS IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND .80 OF AN INCH. SO KEPT MID TEEN POPS THERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S WEST TO THE 40S EAST. FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREVALENT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION DURING SATURDAY. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND ONE INCH. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SLOWLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE RATHER MILD AS 925 MB TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 11-14C RANGE. SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE DELTA REGION LATE. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. THIS WAS VERIFIED BY NATIONAL WRF MODELS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT ITS A LITTLE EARLY TO MENTION THAT FOR NOW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. FOR TONIGHT MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MILDER SREF GUIDANCE AS MOS LOOKED TO BE TOO COOL WITH THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLAY. FOR SATURDAY WENT CLOSER TO A BLEND OF GMOS AND SREF GUIDANCE AS MAV LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL WHILE THE NAM WAS TOO WARM. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND CURRENT FORECAST. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WENT CLOSE TO CURRENT LOW POPS IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION AS MAV POPS LOOKED A LITTLE DRY...WHILE THE NAM POPS WERE TOO WET. FOR SATURDAY WENT WITH THE SAME CURRENT FORECAST POPS WITH THE SAME BIASES FOR THE MAV AND NAM POPS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV POPS. /17/ LONG TERM...THIS MED RANGE/LONG TERM IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE PREV EXTENDED FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO OFFER AN UP/DOWN TEMP REGIME ALONG WITH A WETTER PERIOD FOR SUN-WED WHILE VARIOUS FRONTS LINGER IN THE AREA. WHAT HAS INCREASED IS CONFIDENCE IN WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE SE HALF SUN THEN ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA TUE. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING ON BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A S/WV INCREASING WAA OVER TOP OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STARTING SUNDAY...LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE INTO THE FAR NW CWA WITH A SLOW STEADY SE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL SLOW WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AS DEEPER WAA FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING S/WV EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS...THE SE HALF OF THE AREA WILL GET QUITE WARM AND FAVORED THE WARMER NAM GUID TO MAX TEMPS. WHILE PRECIP WILL EXIST MOST OF THE DAY...IT WON`T BE A WASH OUT. EXPECT A COUPLE PERIODS OF PRECIP AND MOST OF IT ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. ALSO LOOK FOR PRECIP TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT INCREASES. HIGHER POPS WILL EXIST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE MORE FOCUSED S/WV MOVING OVER THE CWA. WHILE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD BE POSSIBLE...IT SEEMS LIKE A DECENT .5 TO 1.0 IN TYPE RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR. THIS WILL BE WELCOME SINCE THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS HAVE BEEN DRY. IN THE WAKE OF THE S/WV...THE SFC FRONT WILL GET A PUSH SE AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN. MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS PESKY CLOUDS WILL LINGER. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S(NW) TO MID 50S(SE). MONDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE PERIOD WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MET BEFORE READINGS WARM THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW LEVELS RESPOND TO AN APPROACHING S/WV WHICH WILL BE MORE POTENT THAN THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. THROUGH EARLY TUE...A FRONTAL FEATURE WILL SHARPEN AND REALLY SET UP A NICE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY OVER A PART OF THE NW CWA. THE INCREASING LIFT AND WAA OVERNIGHT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN A FEW TSRA OVER THE NW AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE TUE. ON TUE...WE WILL REALLY SEE A TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EVOLVING FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS...PIVOTS AS A SFC LOW RIDES NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS ON THE WARM (SE) SECTOR WILL REACH THE 70-74 RANGE WHILE AREAS ON THE NW SIDE WILL HOLD IN THE 40S. MOST PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NW OF THE FRONT WHILE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED. THIS CAPPING SIGNAL HAS BEEN EVIDENT BY ALL GUID FOR THE PAST COUPLE RUNS. BY TUE EVE...THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE AND THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TUE NIGHT. ONE WOULD THINK SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUCH A SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE THIS IS A POSSIBILITY...CONFIDENCE IN STRONG ACTIVITY OCCURRING IS ON THE LOW SIDE. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE MAIN ZONE OF LIFT MISSING OUR AREA TO THE NW/N. WHILE SOME DECENT INGREDIENTS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DISCONNECT WITH THE BEST LIFT AND THAT COMBINING WITH SVR WX PARAMETERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT IS WHERE CONFIDENCE WANES AND THE FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THERE WILL BE AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC SFC HIGH TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE CORE OF THIS COLD WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP IT LOCKED UP FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND CONTAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF ARCTIC AIR (COLD/DRY). WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE MID/UPPER FLOW. THE EURO MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE SW FLOW WHILE THE GFS IS FLATTER AND HAS THE ENERGY FURTHER W/SW. THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE CONSISTENT EURO WHICH IS ALSO WHAT HPC HAS FOLLOWED. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLDER TEMPS WED-FRI ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WHAT WILL COMPLICATE MATTERS IS THE COLD AIR BEING IN PLACE WITH PRECIP MOVING IN. SOME SORT OF WINTRY PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND WILL HAVE A MENTION OF SUCH ACROSS THE NORTH THU NIGHT. /CME/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 61 49 65 54 / 3 9 19 25 MERIDIAN 60 45 63 52 / 3 9 20 21 VICKSBURG 63 52 67 50 / 9 11 17 31 HATTIESBURG 63 50 67 57 / 3 12 20 21 NATCHEZ 62 52 68 55 / 9 9 16 23 GREENVILLE 56 52 65 41 / 10 15 23 51 GREENWOOD 56 50 64 44 / 10 13 18 46 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ DC/ALLEN/17/CME
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1123 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tomorrow) Issued at 258 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 Very tricky forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours due to a surface front in the area and two waves of precipitation moving through. Temperatures and precip type is going to be challenging today through tomorrow with a degree or two making a huge difference if precip will be frozen or not. There is a front basically near the I-44 corridor with temperatures just below freezing north of that front and in the middle 30s south of that front with the only exception over towards West Plains where temperatures are actually in the middle 20s due to some localized clear skies. Ceilings are slowly dropping and radar is starting to show some light echos developing across southwest Missouri indicating that low level moisture is beginning to move in. The initial wave will develop very light precip in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle this morning through the afternoon. The RUC models suggest that areas north of the spine of the Ozark Plateau will likely stay in the lower 30s today and areas south of the Plateau across far southern Missouri getting into the lower 40s. There will be a tight temperatures gradient across the CWA today. Patchy freezing drizzle will be possible this morning for areas north of I-44 through the early afternoon. Areas along the Highway 54 corridor will remain close to that freezing mark for most of the day and will have the best potential of seeing either light freezing rain or freezing drizzle through the afternoon hours. An area of low pressure will ride up and along the front tonight along with the main upper level wave moving through tonight. The low pressure will move from southwest Missouri to east central Missouri by Saturday morning. The best chance of precipitation will be across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks tonight through tomorrow with lesser pops across the southwest corner of the state and in southeast Kansas. Expecting the best potential for freezing rain and sleet mix will be across the Highway 54 corridor late tonight into tomorrow morning where about a tenth of an inch of ice will be possible and a dusting of light sleet or light snow when the precip wraps up late Saturday morning. Areas along and north of I-44 will have a window of seeing light freezing rain or light sleet mix perhaps some light snow to end with tomorrow morning ending from west to east Saturday afternoon. Again...a light glaze of ice possible and a dusting of light sleet or snow. At this time will let the current winter weather advisory continue because of the threat of patchy freezing drizzle this morning through early afternoon and then the risk for winter weather late tonight into early Saturday morning. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 258 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 Cold Canadian airmass will settle in for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Have followed the ECMWF closely with the latest trends from Sunday through the end of next week. There will be an upper level wave moving south of the area Sunday afternoon. There has been a slight trend to bring some precip northward into southern Missouri Sunday afternoon. Will mention light snow possible for extreme southern Missouri with best chances south of our area. A light dusting may be possible for areas of far southern Missouri. The potential is increasing of a significant winter storm will move in Monday night through Tuesday night. Models are converging on a solution but still have some minor differences on thermal profiles and amounts. Snow will begin to develop and move in late Monday night into Tuesday morning with Tuesday morning through early afternoon being the prime time for snow and some of it looks like it could be heavy at times. There maybe some a wintry mix of sleet and snow for areas over far southern Missouri. Will start mentioning some decent accumulating snow looks increasing likely for the Ozarks with this system. QPF will be on the order of half an inch to an inch. At least several inches of snowfall if not more seem very likely. This winter storm potential will need to be watched closely through the weekend for forecast trends. That storm system will move out of the area Tuesday night. Very cold airmass moves in for middle and end of next week with fresh snow cover expected and high pressure overhead...temperatures will be very cold and especially overnight lows. Long range models are still indicating the potential of another significant winter storm sometime by the end of next week as well. Very active weather pattern starting this weekend through end of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1103 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 Expect IFR and occasional LIFR conditions to impact Southwestern Missouri airfields for the duration of the TAF forecast period. A weak to moderate strength winter storm system approaching from the west is pulling gulf moisture northward. This pattern coupled with a Canadian high pressure system to the northeast pushing a cold and dry air flow to the south will generate low ceilings...drizzle and occasional light rain over the area the rest of today into early Saturday morning. A cold front will move through the area later Saturday Morning bringing a good shot at LIFR ceilings...and a period of rain changing to sleet and snow toward late morning and mid day. Included low level wind shear at all three airfields later tonight and early tomorrow due to a low level southwesterly jet developing over the area. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Saturday FOR MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>081-088>091-094. KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Saturday FOR KSZ073-097- 101. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Colucci
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1200 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 253 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER. THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT THIS MORNING AS IT TRANSLATES EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 15Z- 18Z. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST WITH THIS EVOLUTION AND MANY SOLNS QUICKLY DISSOLVE THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOW BAND AS IT MOVES OFF THE COLO HIGH PLAINS. THE ARF AND NMM MESOSCALE SOLNS ARE THE BEST PRESERVING THE SNOW BAND BUT STILL DISSOLVE IT ONCE IT CLEARS MCCOOK. SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES STILL LOOKS PROMISING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SNOW BAND STRUCTURES SUGGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO SOME CSI. THE NAM WINDS SUGGEST THIS WHILE THE RAP MODEL DOES NOT. ACCORDING TO THE NAM...THE H700MB WIND SPEED MAX WORKING THROUGH NCNTL NEB SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z AND THEN DECAY. NONETHELESS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS THESE SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH. THE TEXTURE OF THE SNOW WITH THIS EVENTS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME RIMING AND IS GREASY UNDERFOOT PRODUCING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS FCST. FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE. A MODEL BLENDED SOLN PRODUCES A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA INCLUDING CUSTER COUNTY. SOME MODEL SOLNS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND KEEP THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE BIFURCATED ONCE AGAIN AND THE GFS...NAM AND GEM PRODUCE A SECOND WEAK BAND OF SNOW NORTH OF THE MAIN BAND PASSING THROUGH KS. THE ECM...SREF AND SOME OF THE ARF/NMM SOLNS DO NOT SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT. SO THE SNOW FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS UNCERTAIN. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE MODELS SHOW SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AS ANOTHER PORTION OF THIS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS COULD SET UP RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT SO THAT PORTION OF THE FCST AREA USES THE COOL MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEWLY FORMED SNOW FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 20S TODAY WITH WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW FELL AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 253 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE ONE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST...HOWEVER THE NEXT CLIPPER TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL UNDERCUT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS BRINGS SOME CONCERN ABOUT MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE. SO NO REASONS TO DISCOUNT THIS AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THUS FORECAST KEEPS SLGHT CHC OF SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. WITH THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTION SOUTH...EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO WARM. THE USUALLY WARMER SW HAS BEEN TRENDED COOLER AS THE THIS MORNING SNOWFALL WILL STILL BE AROUND TO HELP LIMIT WARMING. ONLY KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE BLEND...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AND A TREND DOWN MAY BE NEEDED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. DID CONTINUE TO TREND THE SW DOWN. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT RETURN SW FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT...AND MIGHT SEE WARMING TEMPS TOWARDS MORNING...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS. BY MONDAY MODELS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY...MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS. THE COMBINATION OF RETURN SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. THE MODELS FOCUS THE BEST LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE /AND GREATEST QPF/ FROM SE COLORADO INTO NW IOWA. MIGHT SEE ACTIVITY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS WILL BE TIME TO SATURATE WITH MAYBE SOME FLURRIES IF ANYTHING. EXPECTING THE BETTER DYNAMICS TO COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS EXPECT COLD AIR...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND AN ACTIVE PATTERN. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE/SUBTLE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW POPS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR AS EXPECTING TIMING WILL BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL END THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT MVFR AND PERHAPS LOCAL IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NEZ022-056>059-069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
1058 AM PST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE ON TAP FOR EASTERN NEVADA TODAY. DRY AND CONTINUED COLD CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. && .UPDATE...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LANDER AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST SO HAVE CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 848 AM / SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE ON TAP FOR EASTERN NEVADA TODAY. DRY AND CONTINUED COLD CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN LANDER AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO EAST CENTRAL NV LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO REFLECT THIS. VALLEYS ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS TODAY. WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF -12C TO -14C MANY AREAS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET ABOVE THE MID 30S. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 641 AM / SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATE...UPDATED CURRENT GRIDS TO REFLECT ONGOING WEATHER IN NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. PERSISTANT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL IN THIS AREA...WHICH INCLUDES THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE AREA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS. ALL GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 338 AM / SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RADAR THIS MORNING IS DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. THE REMOTE SITE IN WINNEMUCCA IS NOW SHOWING A VISIBILITY OF 4 MILES...AND HAS BEEN IMPROVING. COOP OBSERVER IN WINNEMUCCA REPORTED A QUICK 0.8 INCHES WITH THE MIDNIGHT OBSERVATION. RUC13 IS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF WEAK LIFT IN THE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND OUT AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH. MODELS THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WEST OF NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT FROM NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA INTO ELKO COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NEVADA. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIP SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...GOING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THEN ARIZONA...WITH THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW EXITING EARLY SATURDAY. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE TROUGH WITH TH 500 MB COLD POOL TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD DROP A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY FORM...ALONG WITH SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRYING TO PUSH ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS A LITTLE STRONG WITH ENERGY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS DRY AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH QUIET CONDITIONS DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH AREA MONDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH TO NORTHWEST BY END OF PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW...THUS INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. EC SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY A BIT A WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...BUT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. AVIATION...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KELY SEEING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 91/86/90
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
848 AM PST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE ON TAP FOR EASTERN NEVADA TODAY. DRY AND CONTINUED COLD CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. && .UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN LANDER AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO EAST CENTRAL NV LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO REFLECT THIS. VALLEYS ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS TODAY. WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF -12C TO -14C MANY AREAS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET ABOVE THE MID 30S. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 641 AM / SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATE...UPDATED CURRENT GRIDS TO REFLECT ONGOING WEATHER IN NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. PERSISTANT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL IN THIS AREA...WHICH INCLUDES THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE AREA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS. ALL GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 338 AM / SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RADAR THIS MORNING IS DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. THE REMOTE SITE IN WINNEMUCCA IS NOW SHOWING A VISIBILITY OF 4 MILES...AND HAS BEEN IMPROVING. COOP OBSERVER IN WINNEMUCCA REPORTED A QUICK 0.8 INCHES WITH THE MIDNIGHT OBSERVATION. RUC13 IS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF WEAK LIFT IN THE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND OUT AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH. MODELS THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WEST OF NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT FROM NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA INTO ELKO COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE MORNING AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NEVADA. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIP SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...GOING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THEN ARIZONA...WITH THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW EXITING EARLY SATURDAY. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE TROUGH WITH TH 500 MB COLD POOL TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD DROP A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY FORM...ALONG WITH SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRYING TO PUSH ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS A LITTLE STRONG WITH ENERGY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS DRY AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH QUIET CONDITIONS DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH AREA MONDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH TO NORTHWEST BY END OF PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW...THUS INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. EC SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY A BIT A WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...BUT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. AVIATION...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KELY SEEING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY. && $$ 91/86/90
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
107 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 940 AM FRIDAY... THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SLACK GRADIENT OVER THE STATE UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSES WERE DRY AT 850MB...WITH BETTER 850MB MOISTURE LOCATED NOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...AND DRY AT 700MB...WITH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AT 500MB. THERE WAS A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NOTED AT 250MB OVER THE GULF COAST...AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE GOOD JET ALOFT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP AND CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH CLOUDS NUDGING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD GENERALLY STAY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KFAY AND KCTZ...WHILE MORE NOTICEABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT U.S. 64 PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES STILL SHOWED A LOT OF TRANSPARENCY TO THE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF THEM OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO RESULT IN A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...OR SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH MANY OBSERVATIONS WELL INTO THE 20S AND EVEN CLOSE TO FREEZING AT 9 AM. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES FOR KGSO SUGGEST HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S... BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED MIXING ON RAP SOUNDINGS AND THE GOOD INVERSION PRESENT ON THE KGSO 12Z SOUNDING THINK THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE...OR A BLEND BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET...ARE REASONABLE...AND ONLY SHADED TEMPERATURES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE EARLY MORNING TRENDS. THE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATIVE WOULD BE WARMER...AND WILL WATCH THE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL STAY LOW...SO DESPITE THE WARMTH...SHADED AREAS WILL LIKELY STILL SHOW ONLY A SLOW SNOW MELT. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS FOR A LARGE PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH A RETURN OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET...LOWS WILL BE DICTATED PRIMARILY BY RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS...THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER MIN TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY... THE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER... SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC BACK ACROSS NC/SC INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WAA PATTERN ALOFT RAMPS UP SATURDAY A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 50S (POSSIBLY MAY TOUCH 60 IN THE SOUTH) LATE. VERY MILD AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. A GOOD PART OF SUNDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE DRY AND WARM. HOWEVER... THE CHANCE OFF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMING PARTY SUNNY SUNDAY. THEN OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S EXCEPT 55-60 NW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... IT APPEARS THAT THE TREND IN THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE WARMER WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY. THIS WOULD PLACE MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE SYSTEMS WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LOW PRESSURES PASSAGE MONDAY. THE FAVORED NW PIEDMONT MAY REMAIN IN A CAD PATTERN. IN ADDITION... THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND LEFT (NORTHWEST) OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS WOULD PLACE THE NW PIEDMONT IN THE HIGHEST QPF (0.50 TO 1 INCH) WITH LESSER AMOUNTS (TO LESS THAN 0.25) IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN FOR THE STORM TOTALS. THESE WARMER TRENDS ALSO STRONGLY FAVOR ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN FACT... THERE MAY EVEN BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE WAVE ON MONDAY. THEREFORE... RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. LOWS 35-40 NW... RANGING TO NEAR 50 SE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S NW RANGING TO NEAR 60 SE. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO STAY VERY ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH STORM SYSTEM. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY... THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGIONS BY 12Z/WED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NC. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID CAD EVENT IN THE FAVORED PIEDMONT REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED DRIVEN BY A PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032+ MB OVER NEW ENGLAND 12Z/TUE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE OFFSHORE AS THE STORM LIFTS UP THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THIS PATTERN STRONGLY SUGGESTS CAD BREAKING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE NIGHT WITH A STRONG CAD BOUNDARY LIKELY DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE PIEDMONT. P- TYPE CONCERNS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PIEDMONT TUESDAY - WITH THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED TO BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE PRECIPITATION ONSET. CURRENT LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECASTS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARGUE FOR WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY 30-32 AT THE ONSET IN THE TRIAD TO ROXBORO TUESDAY. THERE ARE A LOT OF IFS AT THE CURRENT TIME (A COUPLE OF WHICH INCLUDE TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL DRAIN INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY. THEREFORE... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FREEZING RAIN... BUT HIGH FOR RAIN DURING THIS EVENT. STAY TUNED. FOR NOW... WE WILL MAINTAIN THE ALL LIQUID FORECAST WITH LOWS 30-35 TUE AND HIGHS 36- 50. INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO WED. LOWS WED 36-48. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 45 NW TO 68 SE. THE ACTIVE PATTERN GETS EVEN MORE INTERESTING LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH FORM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THU-FRI. THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HANG BACK OVER THE PLAINS. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE VERY COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE INTO OUR REGION COURTESY OF LINGERING UPPER RIDGING OVER FL/GA. HOWEVER... SOME MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR CLASSICAL CAD BY FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF HEADED NE. THIS IS THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS THE PIEDMONT OR MOUNTAINS WOULD BE FAVORED FOR P-TYPE ISSUES IN SUCH A PATTERN IF CLASSICAL CAD DEVELOPS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FOR NOW... WE WILL CARRY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY. COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. INCREASING CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. CLOUDY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN. WE WILL OMIT THE CHANCE OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN FOR NOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND THE TIMING OF PRECIP. HIGHS 30S NW TO 40S SE. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 105 PM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. THE SREF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST FROM THAT MODEL SEEMS SO HIGH...ESPECIALLY COMPARING THE MODEL FORECAST WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW THAT GUIDANCE. THERE IS A LITTLE MOIST ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ...AND WHILE LEFT THE TAF THERE VFR FOR NOW...AND GUIDANCE IS ALL VFR...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LOWER AVIATION CONDITIONS TOWARD THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WITH A LIGHT FLOW AGAIN SATURDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS IN THE EAST-TO-SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE CIRCLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS...THINK THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY...THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST OVERALL FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
217 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND CONSIDERATION OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES. RECENT OBS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF WEAK REFLECTIVITY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 13KM RAP ARE INDICATING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF. WILL MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES TONIGHT...TRENDING FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND A NORTHWEST WIND AT 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE NORTH. AM EXPECTING WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. ON SATURDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORNING LOWS AS THE COLD POCKET SETTLES OVER NORTH DAKOTA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... SUCCESSIVE POCKETS OF COLD AIR/SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE COLD AIR WITH WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS LIKELY HOISTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LOOKS MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD COVERING ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THE COLDEST SURGE OF H85 TEMPS ARRIVE...BETWEEN -24C TO -27C. WITH THAT SAID...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH BILLINGS AND RAPID CITY...UNDERCUT THE ALLBLEND LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING PRECEDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF FRIGID AIR. ELSEWHERE...COLD/FRIGID AIR DOMINATES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH MAINLY MVFR STRATUS AROUND 2000 FT AGL. THESE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KDIK AROUND 03Z...KMOT AROUND 04Z...KBIS AROUND 07Z AND FINALLY KJMS AROUND 11Z SATURDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY LONG TERM...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1254 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FRONT STALLS IN OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING ALONG IT SATURDAY. MUCH MILDER SATURDAY. COLD FRONT BRINGS MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SENT AN UPDATE TO INCREASE HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A NON DIURNAL TREND WAS NOTICED OVERNIGHT AND IT WAS 40 DEGREES ALREADY AT 1030 AM. USED SFC OBS AND LAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. POPULATED WIND FROM THE RAP HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS STARTING WITH LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES EXTRAPOLATING WITH NAM WINDS AND BLENDING WITH THE CMC MODEL CLOUD COVER OUTPUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 550 AM UPDATE. RADICALLY ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT MINS AND HOURLIES THIS MORNING UPWARD..AS CLOUDS AND WIND HAVE PREVENTED ANY FREE FALL. STILL BELIEVE MOSTLY A VIRGA SCENARIO WITH ECHOES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...SO HAVE ONLY MORNING FLURRIES UP NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS HAVE A DRY AND WEAK COLD FRONT STALLING AS IT SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY...THEN LIFTING BACK AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR HAS BECOME HISTORY...AND THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS NEW FRONT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF US AS THE WINDS TURN FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE ON TEMP TRENDS DURING THIS MODIFICATION PROCESS...WILL LEAN ON THE WARMER GUIDANCE TODAY...EXCEPT CUT A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THAT IN THE NORTH WHERE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PREVAILING. THE ONE THING ABOUT THE ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LOSE IS THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL CONTINUE DRY THRU TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE TODAY WHILE THE TEMPS RECOVER. FOR TONIGHT...DESPITE THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...THE MODELS APPEAR TOO LOW ON MIN TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND A SOUTHEASTERLY PUFF. WILL LEAN AGAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WAS TEMPTED TO TAKE THE POPS OUT OF PERRY/MORGAN COUNTIES AT THE BREAK POINT FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AT 12Z SATURDAY...BUT THE MODELS LEAVE TOO MUCH EVIDENCE OTHERWISE. LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE EURO IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY...WILL EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A RESURGENCE OF THE MOISTURE IN WHAT WILL BEGIN A PRIMARILY WET PATTERN WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS ORIGINATING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREAS. GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE MOISTURE THAT WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE LOWLAND AREAS ON THE DRIER SIDE. WILL SET THIS MODEL ASIDE FOR NOW...CAUTIOUSLY. SREF SIDES WITH THE GFS. WILL BE CONCERNED WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH IN THE MOISTURE PUSH THAT WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. IN TYPICAL FASHION...THERE WILL BE A SHARP DIVIDING LINE IN THE RAIN SNOW LINE...AND THE TRICK FOR THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TIMING HOW LONG IT TAKES TO GET THE COLD AIR TO TAKE HOLD AND IF IT COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE. AS OF RIGHT NOW...NAM AND EURO ARE GIVING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE SREF PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS LOW. THIS IS LEADING TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK THIS MORNING. FROM A PERSONAL FORECASTING PREFERENCE STAND POINT...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT SREF ON BOARD...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE SOME DAY 3 SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THERE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY LOWERING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW STILL EXIST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS. GFS HAS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN A BIT EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF AND HPC SO THE TIMING OF THIS IS SUSPECT. LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT WV ON TUESDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS...HOWEVER HPC IS SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING OVER CENTRAL WV AND THE LOCATION OF THE LOW COULD HAVE AN AFFECT ON WHETHER WE SEE MOSTLY SNOW OR MOSTLY RAIN. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DECK ABOUT 5 KFT MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WV AND KY BORDER. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL REACH CRW BY 19Z...BKW AROUND 21Z...AND CKB AND EKB ABOUT 22Z. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS IN AND OH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH FRONT...AND A FLAT VORTICITY MAX RIDING ON TOP OF IT NOTICEABLE AT H5 Y THE NAM WILL KEEP CLOUD DECK TO THICKEN TOWARD THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...CODED LOWER CEILINGS AT PKB FROM 5 KFT THROUGH 22Z...LOWERING TO 2.5 KFT BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TO PROVIDE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE IN SE OHIO SAT. IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SPREADING SEWD THROUGH THE AREA SAT NT AND THEN CONTINUING SEWD...OUT OF THE AREA...DURING SUN. && .EQUIPMENT... PKB ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MALFUNCTIONS...RESULTING IN SOME MISSING OR INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM AND PARTS ARE BEING ACQUIRED. FOR NOW...OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN AUGMENTED AT THE SITE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...ARJ EQUIPMENT...
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. THE BACK EDGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. LOOKING UPSTREAM...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS DIGGING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS PRODUCING LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO. AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH THESE SHORTWAVES...PRECIP AND SNOW CHANCES/IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE STATE AT THE START OF THE EVENING...WITH ONLY SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING WHICH WILL SET UP A PERIOD OF GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. HAVE DROPPED LOWS ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN WHERE HAVE CONCERNS DIDNT GO COLD ENOUGH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. SNOW WILL BE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THINK PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE IN CASE TIMING IS TOO SLOW. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE LATE WITH THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS DETROIT. STRONG FGEN BAND ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SE WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT MODELS POINT TOWARDS ENOUGH SATURATION ALONG WITH QG FORCING FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. PRECIP SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS ALL BUT NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODEL QPF ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND USED A GENERAL BLEND AS IN INPUT INTO THE FORECAST. WITH SNOW RATIOS OF 16 OR 17 TO 1...LOOKING AT ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF A MARSHFIELD TO MARINETTE LINE...HIGHEST OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY. MAIN PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 9AM AND 3PM...BEFORE PRECIP PULLS OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW STORMS...WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO A MINIMUM. WITHOUT THE WIND RELATED IMPACTS...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC AIR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. MAIN SNOW CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH. BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH SYSTEM BASED ON 850MB THERMAL PROFILE WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD AND HALT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE SNOW. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON FINAL STORM TRACK AND THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WERE TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST NIGHTS AND TAILOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO DEPICT OUR USUAL WARM SPOTS. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD FLYING WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOOKING AT 1-3 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR NEAR MANITOWOC AND POINTS SOUTH. VSBYS TO FALL TO IFR OR HIGH END LIFR ONCE THE SNOW ARRIVES. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......MPC