Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/29/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1019 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... IN TERMS OF KEY LOW-MID LEVEL FEATURES THE 01Z RUC/00Z NAM/21Z SREF WHERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR THIS UPDATE. KEY TO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS INTERACTION BETWEEN 700 HPA VORTICITY MINIMUM OVER THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE AND A 700 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST TO ITS N AND W. THIS COUPLED PAIR IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE - WITH THE VORTICITY MINIMUM TRACKING JUST E OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACKING ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND FROM 8-12Z. THE RESULTING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION BETWEEN THE VORTICITY MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER SUFFOLK COUNTY LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THIS...APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE LIMITED TO WEAK 700-500 HPA Q-G AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY FOCUSED FROM AROUND NYC NE INTO NE CT. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION TO THE NW OF THIS LINE DUE TO THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS AS PER KOKX AND KALY 00Z SOUNDINGS. AT 2Z...NORTHERN EDGE OF SNOW WAS FROM KOXB-KADW-KCJR AND WAS LIFTING NE. RADAR TRAJECTORY SUPPORTS GENERALLY COVERAGE AREA OUTLINED ABOVE FOR SNOW VS. NO SNOW. UPDATED FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS DRY AS 01Z RUC/00Z HRRR NOR AS WET AS THE 00Z NAM...AND DEFINITELY NOT AS EXPANSIVE IN SNOW COVER AS THE 21Z SREF - AS OBS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE N AND W EDGE OF THE SNOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO USED WAS AROUND 20:1 PER LATEST GUIDANCE. HAVE LEFT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER SUFFOLK COUNTY - WITH HIGHEST TOTALS OVER THE S FORK. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR 1-2" INCHES OF SNOW FROM NEW LONDON COUNTY SE INTO NASSAU COUNTY AND S PARTS OF NYC. EXPECT NO SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR SW CT AND THE N 1/2 OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING N PORTIONS OF NYC. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN EXACT N AND W EDGE OF SNOW AND TIMING WILL HOLD OFF IN ISSUING AN SPS FOR AREAS EXPECTING 1-2" OF SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...WITH TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER - MIGHT END UP NEEDING OVER EASTERN AREAS BECAUSE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE 1ST PART OF RUSH HOUR. UPDATED TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF LAV GUIDANCE AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE HANDLED LATEST TRENDS WELL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... RAPID CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AS WEDNESDAY MORNING PROGRESSES. ONGOING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END DURING OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE ON LONG ISLAND...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER FURTHER WEST. WE EXPECT SLIPPERY CONDITIONS FOR THE RUSH EVEN IF THE SNOW ENDS BY THEN. SUNNY SKIES RETURN FOR MID MORNING ONWARD WITH CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPERATURES. FAIR AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF A FLURRY WITH THIS...ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES ON FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MILDER CONDITIONS...CAUSING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SNOW INLAND AND RAIN ALONG THE COAST...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE INLAND WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION FOR THE COAST IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME CHANGES ARE LIKELY AS WE MOVE FORWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATER ON SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S TO AROUND 30. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WED. VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD THEN DEVELOP WITH LIFR VSBY AT KISP/KGON...AND IFR VSBY MOST ELSEWHERE EXCEPT KSWF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY/VFR. EXPECT RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 2 INCHES FROM KISP-KGON SOUTH/EAST...UP TO AN INCH AT KJFK...LESS THAN AN INCH AT MOST OTHER TERMINALS...AND NO ACCUMULATION AT KSWF. CONDITIONS BECOME SKC WED AFT THE SNOW ENDS. NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 6-7 KT OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. W WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE WED AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING W WINDS. .THU...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15G20KT. .FRI...CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AT 10-20KT. .SAT...CHC OF MIXED PRECIP OR LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS BECOMING S. .SUN...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS. && .MARINE... MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH CAA IN IT/S WAKE POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MARGINAL SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVE. HELD OFF ON SCA AT THIS TIME DUE TO MARGINAL NATURE. SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... LIGHT PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS NE NJ AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO UP TO 2/10 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVEN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS ARCTIC AIR PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ICE JAM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED FLOW. && .EQUIPMENT... THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE. DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE. DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ078>081. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLE/FIG NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...MLE LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...MALOIT/MLE/FIG HYDROLOGY...MLE/FIG EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS THE ECMWF VERIFIED THE BEST AT 00Z. IN TERMS OF GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF THE SNOW REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH 00Z THE GFS VERIFIED THE CLOSEST. THE CANADIAN MODELS HAD THE MOST EGREGIOUS ERRORS. COMPARING THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB FCST SOUNDINGS VS THE ACTUAL IAD AND WAL SOUNDING, THE GFS WAS CLOSER, BOTH MODELS WERE TOO WARM AT WAL A BIT. AT IAD THE WRF-NMMB WAS 100MB TOO SATURATED (DOWN TO 900MB VS 800MB) WITH THE COLUMN. THIS EXPLAINS THE STRUGGLE OF THE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST BAND TO REACH THE GROUND SO FAR IN THE DC AREA. AT 500MB NATIONWIDE, THE 500MB TROF WAS VERIFYING SLIGHTLY WEAKER, BUT THE RIDGING OUT WEST SLIGHTLY STRONGER, SO WE WILL CALL THIS A WASH. WHERE DEW POINTS BOUNCE UP ABOVE ZERO, THE SNOW STARTS REACHING THE GROUND. WE STILL HAVE A DRY POCKET ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR, SO THE DRIER SOLUTIONS OF THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HAD LEGS SO FAR THIS EVENING. THEIR SOLUTIONS PIVOTS MEASURABLE SNOW INTO THE I95 CORRIDOR (NAM SLIGHTLY MORE NW) BEFORE IT EASES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. IF THIS VERIFIES, PROPS TO THE SPC AND NSSL WRFS FOR HAVING THIS SOLUTION FROM LAST NIGHT. FOR THIS UPDATE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MEASURABLE SNOW GETTING TO THE FALL LINE AND STRUGGLING ANYWHERE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE KEPT. THE LATEST WRF CONTINUES THE DRYING TREND THAT STARTED WITH ITS 18Z RUN IN THAT REGARD. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE BACKING OFF OF PCPN ACROSS OUR SERN CWA AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST (AND WE OBSERVE) SOME FGEN BANDING AS WELL AS REMAINING IN THE OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH CROSS HAIRS. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT ACCUM FORECAST. TRAFFIC CAMS IN DELAWARE ARE SHOWING A SOLID COATING (IF NOT MORE) ALREADY. NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS WERE MADE. IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM WE HAD TO LOWER DEW POINTS WHERE SNOW HAS YET TO BEGIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR EAST TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY, THEREFORE ANY LINGERING SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE RATHER COLD, HOWEVER SOME WARMING IS FORECAST ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AT THE SURFACE GETTING INTO THE 20S FOR MANY PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS AT TIMES AND THIS WILL PRODUCE RATHER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. OVERALL, WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD SEE DECENT CLEARING FAIRLY QUICK IN THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ONE MORE DAY OF COLD WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BEFORE A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST, FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THE BROAD TROUGH THAT HAS DOMINATED THE EAST COAST FOR SO LONG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL, OR EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW THICKNESSES BEGIN TO RISE, ALLOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND. ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY ON HOW THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AS THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND TEMPORARILY STALL OUR FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, WE INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, BEFORE PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST, AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP FRIDAY DRY, BUT RATHER LIFT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN NORTHWARD AS THEY LIFT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA, THEN BRING IN MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS, WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, A RANGE OF P-TYPES COULD FALL. WITH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUR IN THE THERMAL PROFILES, WE WILL KEEP A RAIN, SNOW, OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE UNTIL WE GET CLOSER WITH MORE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SHOWS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASSING TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS PRETTY FAR IN THE FUTURE, WE WILL NOT INCREASE POPS JUST YET AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS PROGRESSES. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A PRETTY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN MOVING TOWARD OUR ARE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AT THE END AND JUST PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY POTENT SYSTEM. FOR NOW WE HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY SINCE THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SNOW SHIELD WILL EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. WHILE THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE SNOW GETS, SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR A TIME AT KTTN, KPHL/KPNE AND KILG. THE STEADIER AND MORE PRONOUNCED SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND KACY. THEREFORE, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED AT ALL THESE TERMINALS, WITH THE LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. AS OF NOW, NO SNOW WAS INCLUDED AT KRDG AND KABE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, WITH EVEN SOME TERMINALS HAVING THE WIND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY EARLY AS SNOW ENDS, OTHERWISE VFR WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AND CLEARING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW. && .MARINE... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS ALLOWED THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SOME LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, HOWEVER IT MAY BE MARGINAL REGARDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS OF NOW, WE HELD WINDS JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA /25 KNOTS/. AS THE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN, SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY DEVELOP ALTHOUGH AS OF NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT-ADVISORY CONDITIONS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... ALL RIVERS IN THE HSA REPORT AT LEAST SOME ICE COVER...WITH MANY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED. MANY GAGE READINGS SHOW ICE EFFECTS. WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT, SO THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SITUATION WILL BE REASSESSED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR NEARBY STREAMS AND RIVERS AND NOTIFY THE APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL IF YOU SHOULD SEE ANY FLOODING AND/OR AN ICE JAM OCCURRING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ020>022-025>027. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ023-024. DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ002. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ012- 015-019-020. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...GIGI SHORT TERM...GORSE LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...GORSE/ROBERTSON MARINE...GORSE/ROBERTSON HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
623 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE 18Z MODEL SUITE AS WELL AS THE LAST COUPLE OF RAP AND HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN ERODING THE SNOW/PCPN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WHILE SHOWING LESS OF A DOWNWARD TREND TOWARD THE COAST. THE 18Z MODELS DID HAVE FGEN FORCING AFFECTING THE SERN QUARTER OF OUR CWA AS WELL AS REMAINING BEING IN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AREA. SFC DEW POINT RESPONSE WI OUR CWA HAS BEEN SLOW, BUT WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND THE SUPPLY OF FRESH DRY AIR IS WEAKENING. ABOVE ZERO DEW POINTS ARE CORRESPONDING TO WHERE THE SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND WHILE IFR SNOW IS BEST CORRESPONDING TO DEW POINTS TOWARD 10F. BASICALLY THIS CONTINUES THE IDEA OF A SLOW SNOW GO FOR THE START OF THE EVENING AND A BETTER RAMP UP OVERNIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO LOWER SOME IMMEDIATE POPS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS IS THIS SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING EASTWARD WILL KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD. THIS INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS, HOWEVER AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHWARD, THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIME AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER THOUGH, THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CAN CHANGE THINGS UP AND THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER EXAMPLE. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE SLOWING SOME MORE, WHICH LEADS TO THE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTATION CHANGING SOME. THIS THEREFORE AFFECTS THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW SUCH THAT ASSOCIATED LIFT ESPECIALLY IN THE 700-850 MB LAYER SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A RIBBON OF 700-850 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS LIFT ALSO REACHES INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. AN EXAMINATION OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE AIRMASS BELOW 700 MB MOISTENING UP WITH TIME. DESPITE RATHER LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS, SOME SNOW HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWED THE MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB HOWEVER BELOW THIS LEVEL IT IS VERY DRY. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS AS THE MOISTURE ABOVE IS SQUEEZED OUT. IN ADDITION, THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS LOWER TO THE GROUND AND THE MAXIMUM LIFT INTERSECTS INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER FLUFFY SNOWFALL, AND POTENTIALLY AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. ONE OF THE CHALLENGES THOUGH PERTAINS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD REGARDING HOW MUCH ENDS UP NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THE NAM MAY BE TO WET ESPECIALLY ON ITS NORTHWEST EDGE AND ITS HIGHER THAN REALITY DEW POINTS COULD BE A FACTOR IN ITS HIGHER QPF ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTHWEST. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A SHARP WESTERN EDGE FROM SNOW TO NO SNOW, AND WE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN OUR POPS/QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. IT IS VERY COLD, THEREFORE THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY STICK TO ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AMONG THE MODELS AND AFTER COLLABORATION THIS AFTERNOON, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED WEST AND NORTHWARD A TIER OR SO OF COUNTIES/ZONES. BASED ON THE QPF FORECAST AND USING HIGHER RATIOS, WE UPGRADED SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE AND CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. THE START TIME IS A BIT IFFY AS IT MAY A TAKE LONGER FOR THE SNOW TO REALLY GET GOING ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. FOR THE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ADVISORY IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATES, HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN EDGE ALONG WITH RATIOS. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE FARTHER WEST, WE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS ATTM IN THE ADVISORY AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND THEN MADE SOME MAINLY MINOR TWEAKS. THE HOURLY GRIDS INCORPORATED THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE INTO THIS EVENING TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR EAST TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY, THEREFORE ANY LINGERING SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE RATHER COLD, HOWEVER SOME WARMING IS FORECAST ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AT THE SURFACE GETTING INTO THE 20S FOR MANY PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS AT TIMES AND THIS WILL PRODUCE RATHER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. OVERALL, WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD SEE DECENT CLEARING FAIRLY QUICK IN THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ONE MORE DAY OF COLD WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BEFORE A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST, FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THE BROAD TROUGH THAT HAS DOMINATED THE EAST COAST FOR SO LONG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL, OR EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW THICKNESSES BEGIN TO RISE, ALLOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND. ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY ON HOW THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AS THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND TEMPORARILY STALL OUR FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, WE INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, BEFORE PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST, AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP FRIDAY DRY, BUT RATHER LIFT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN NORTHWARD AS THEY LIFT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA, THEN BRING IN MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS, WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, A RANGE OF P-TYPES COULD FALL. WITH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUR IN THE THERMAL PROFILES, WE WILL KEEP A RAIN, SNOW, OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE UNTIL WE GET CLOSER WITH MORE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SHOWS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASSING TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS PRETTY FAR IN THE FUTURE, WE WILL NOT INCREASE POPS JUST YET AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS PROGRESSES. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A PRETTY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN MOVING TOWARD OUR ARE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AT THE END AND JUST PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY POTENT SYSTEM. FOR NOW WE HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY SINCE THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SNOW SHIELD WILL EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. WHILE THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE SNOW GETS, SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR A TIME AT KTTN, KPHL/KPNE AND KILG. THE STEADIER AND MORE PRONOUNCED SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND KACY. THEREFORE, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED AT ALL THESE TERMINALS, WITH THE LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. AS OF NOW, NO SNOW WAS INCLUDED AT KRDG AND KABE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, WITH EVEN SOME TERMINALS HAVING THE WIND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY EARLY AS SNOW ENDS, OTHERWISE VFR WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AND CLEARING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW. && .MARINE... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS ALLOWED THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SOME LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, HOWEVER IT MAY BE MARGINAL REGARDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS OF NOW, WE HELD WINDS JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA /25 KNOTS/. AS THE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN, SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY DEVELOP ALTHOUGH AS OF NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT-ADVISORY CONDITIONS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... ALL RIVERS IN THE HSA REPORT AT LEAST SOME ICE COVER...WITH MANY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED. MANY GAGE READINGS SHOW ICE EFFECTS. WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT, SO THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SITUATION WILL BE REASSESSED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR NEARBY STREAMS AND RIVERS AND NOTIFY THE APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL IF YOU SHOULD SEE ANY FLOODING AND/OR AN ICE JAM OCCURRING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ020>022-025>027. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ023-024. DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ002. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ012- 015-019-020. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE SHORT TERM...GORSE LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...GORSE/ROBERTSON MARINE...GORSE/ROBERTSON HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .UPDATE... CURRENT...LOCAL 88D IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWER BAND ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OSCEOLA/BREVARD COS AS OF 15Z/10AM. EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THE BAND HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AND LAY OUT W-E AS ITS SOUTHWARD TACK HAS LOST CONSIDERABLE STEAM. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD COVER ALONG/NORTH OF THE TROUGH/SHOWER BAND...WHILE SKIES ARE MCLEAR TO THE SOUTH. H20 VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANLYS SHOO ONE H50 IMPULSE DEPARTING OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST...WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING INTO THE PENINSULA FROM THE GOMEX. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS NORTH VS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA WERE NEAR 60F WHILE THE LAKE OKEE/JUPITER REGION WAS ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE M70S. MORNING RAOBS SHOW BOTH LOW LEVEL AND MEAN MOISTURE HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS PROGGED WITH PWATS ABOUT 1.3 TO 1.4" REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE WEAK WILL DAMPEN OUT TODAY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FL BECOMING THE MAIN WX FEATURE. WEAK VORT ENERGY ALOFT WILL ZIP ACROSS THE PENINSULA...REACHING THE ATLC SIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREMISE FOR PRECIP LOOKS ISOLATED AT BEST. CLOUDS TO THE NORTH WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AS NRLY FLOW SLOWLY BACKS AROUND TO WSW-SW....WHILE TO THE SOUTH...WARM SWRLY FLOW WILL EASILY PUSH MAXES IN THE L80S...COMPARED TO M-U70S TO THE NORTH. && .AVIATION...SEVERAL AMDS NEEDED ACROSS LEE-SFB-DAB FOR STUBBORN IFR CIGS BKN-OVC006-008...AND IT APPEARS THESE CLOUDS WILL NEED A COUPLE MORE HRS TO BREAK UP AND LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. && .MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO WRLY BREEZE WILL KEEP SEAS 1-2FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNSET. TOWARD THIS END...SHAVED JUST A BIT OFF THE HIGH END OF SEA HGT GRIDS. && SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014/ TUESDAY...ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE ATLC COAST WITH A TRAILING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS WITH SOME FILTERED SUN ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLGT CHC CENTRAL ZONES AND DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LWR-MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S/LWR 80S ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND PULL THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. PREVALENT POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE TWD NRN SECTIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM KISSIMMEE TO CAPE CANAVERAL. WILL AGAIN KEEP A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AND DRY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. LOWS MID 50S FAR NORTH AND LWR-MID 60S FOR THE TREASURE COAST. WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL. EXPECT LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S FROM LEESBURG TO DAYTONA BEACH...AROUND 70 IN MELBOURNE AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY. WED NIGHT...GFS HINTS AT LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH N-NE LOW LVL FLOW FROM THE SFC-H9...LOW LVL WAA AT H8 AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING H2 THROUGH AND FAVORABLE RR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF RAIN SOME POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME. SOME COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO NRN LAKE/INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH LOWS AROUND 40 DEGS. FOR RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE A COLD RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY PRECIP IF GFS/NAM TEMP PROFILES VERIFY. THU...00Z GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THU WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY LEANING TWD THE GFS AT THIS POINT. IF GFS SLOW DOWN CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION MAY HAVE TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE PRECIP PULLS OFFSHORE. HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO LWR-MID 70S SOUTH. FRI-SUN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GA TO START THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC WITH VEERING LOW LVL FLOW AND RISING MID LVL HEIGHTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS BY SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80/LWR 80S SRN SECTIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH NEAR SHORE OCEAN TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S. ENOUGH LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED BY SAT AFTN AND SUNDAY TO INSERT SOME SLGT SHOWER CHANCES. && .AVIATION...NORTH OF MLB VSBYS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME TEMPO IFR. OCCASIONAL -RA POSSIBLE FROM ISM/MLB NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL CAUSE BRIEF LOWER VSBYS. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TODAY TO 10-15 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT TO 1-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE BUT WITH PERIODS 9-10 SECONDS ONLY CHOP WILL BE FROM WINDS. TUE-FRI...VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME S-SW TUE NIGHT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND A FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY REQUIRED FOR MID WEEK. WINDS WILL VEER AND LIGHTEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOW FOR MUCH BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
328 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .DISCUSSION... TODAY-TONIGHT...WIND PROFILER SHOWS DEEPENING S/SW FLOW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHICH HAS ASSISTED IN INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG MOSTLY NORTH OF MELBOURNE. DON`T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY LOW VISIBILITIES SO THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY EVEN ALTHOUGH IT BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL KEEP LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDINESS IN THE FORECAST PARTICULARLY FROM ABOUT OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES NORTHWARD. RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT RECORD HIGHS AREN`T EXPECTED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY BUT CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE LEFT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. NEITHER WIDESPREAD NOR SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TUESDAY...ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE ALTC COAST WITH A TRAILING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS WITH SOME FILTERED SUN ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLGT CHC CENTRAL ZONES AND DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LWR-MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S/LWR 80S ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND PULL THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. PREVALENT POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE TWD NRN SECTIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM KISSIMMEE TO CAPE CANAVERAL. WILL AGAIN KEEP A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AND DRY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. LOWS MID 50S FAR NORTH AND LWR-MID 60S FOR THE TREASURE COAST. WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL. EXPECT LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S FROM LEESBURG TO DAYTONA BEACH...AROUND 70 IN MELBOURNE AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY. WED NIGHT...GFS HINTS AT LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH N-NE LOW LVL FLOW FROM THE SFC-H9...LOW LVL WAA AT H8 AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING H2 THROUGH AND FAVORABLE RR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF RAIN SOME POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME. SOME COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO NRN LAKE/INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH LOWS AROUND 40 DEGS. FOR RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE A COLD RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY PRECIP IF GFS/NAM TEMP PROFILES VERIFY. THU...00Z GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THU WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY LEANING TWD THE GFS AT THIS POINT. IF GFS SLOW DOWN CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION MAY HAVE TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE PRECIP PULLS OFFSHORE. HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO LWR-MID 70S SOUTH. FRI-SUN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GA TO START THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC WITH VEERING LOW LVL FLOW AND RISING MID LVL HEIGHTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS BY SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80/LWR 80S SRN SECTIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH NEAR SHORE OCEAN TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S. ENOUGH LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED BY SAT AFTN AND SUNDAY TO INSERT SOME SLGT SHOWER CHANCES. && .AVIATION...NORTH OF MLB VISYBS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME TEMPO IFR. OCCASIONAL -RA POSSIBLE FROM ISM/MLB NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL CAUSE BRIEF LOWER VISBYS. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TODAY TO 10-15 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT TO 1-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE BUT WITH PERIODS 9-10 SECONDS ONLY CHOP WILL BE FROM WINDS. TUE-FRI...VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME S-SW TUE NIGHT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND A FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY REQUIRED FOR MID WEEK. WINDS WILL VEER AND LIGHTEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOW FOR MUCH BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 56 73 55 / 30 10 30 40 MCO 76 57 78 59 / 20 10 20 30 MLB 79 59 77 63 / 20 10 10 20 VRB 79 57 79 62 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 74 56 75 53 / 30 10 20 40 SFB 76 57 76 57 / 30 10 20 30 ORL 75 58 77 58 / 30 10 20 30 FPR 79 56 79 63 / 20 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BOWEN LONG TERM....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1006 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO ALL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AHEAD OF THIS TRANSITION LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THIS SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST SPC WRF INDICATED SNOW ENDING IN THE WEST PART BETWEEN 400 AM AND 600 AM...AND THE EAST PART DURING THE 600 AM TO 900 AM TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW AND GETTING BELOW THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 200 AM TO 600 AM TIME FRAME...SO THE SNOW MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER AND POSSIBLY BECOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIPITATION-TYPE EVENT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM MCCORMICK TO SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA TO AIKEN TO COLUMBIA PLUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS FROM CAMDEN TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECASTED. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG AND ORANGEBURG...TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH. THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT- OVER SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE. SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH READINGS BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GFS SHOWING INDICATING BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH. CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEGUN TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AS MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS TRANSITIONED INTO SNOW AT THE CSRA AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS SITES...CAE/CUB/DNL/AGS. AT OGB...EXPECT THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO MAINLY SNOW BY AROUND 06Z WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AT THAT TIME. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF IN THE FAR WESTERN MIDLANDS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AROUND 10Z AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A RETURN TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016- 018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040- 063>065-077. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
930 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO ALL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AHEAD OF THIS TRANSITION LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THIS SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST SPC WRF INDICATED SNOW ENDING IN THE WEST PART BETWEEN 400 AM AND 600 AM...AND THE EAST PART DURING THE 600 AM TO 900 AM TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW AND GETTING BELOW THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 200 AM TO 600 AM TIME FRAME...SO THE SNOW MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER AND POSSIBLY BECOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIPITATION-TYPE EVENT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM MCCORMICK TO SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA TO AIKEN TO COLUMBIA PLUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS FROM CAMDEN TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECASTED. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG AND ORANGEBURG...TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH. THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT- OVER SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE. SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH READINGS BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GFS SHOWING INDICATING BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH. CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. USED THE GFS LAMP AND RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR THE TIMING. OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MIXED PRECIPITATIONS SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. USED THE RAP FOR THE TIMING. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN BEGINNING AROUND 10Z AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A RETURN TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016- 018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040- 063>065-077. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
740 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW WAS OCCURRING NORTHWEST OF AN AUGUSTA...COLUMBIA AND CHESTERFIELD LINE AT 700 PM. ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE IT WAS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS LINE HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING AND THE LATEST RAP INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE LATER. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST SPCA RF INDICATED SNOW ENDING IN THE WEST PART BETWEEN 400 AM AND 600 AM...AND THE EAST PART DURING THE 600 AM TO 900 AM TIME FRAME. MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIPITATION-TYPE EVENT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM MCCORMICK TO SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA TO AIKEN TO COLUMBIA PLUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS FROM CAMDEN TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECASTED. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG AND ORANGEBURG...TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACCUMULATION FORECAST DUE TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AND SMALL CHANGES IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE CAN HAVE PROFOUND INFLUENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT WE WILL REACH THE WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW...OR AT LEAST 1/4 OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT-OVER SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE. SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH READINGS BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GFS SHOWING INDICATING BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH. CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. USED THE GFS LAMP AND RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR THE TIMING. OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MIXED PRECIPITATIONS SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. USED THE RAP FOR THE TIMING. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN BEGINNING AROUND 10Z AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A RETURN TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016- 018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040- 063>065-077. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
646 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE UP THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE WINTER STORM IS RAPIDLY RAMPING UP EARLY THIS EVENING. FREEZING RAIN WAS BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE NORTH OF I-16. A MESOSCALE BAND EVIDENT FROM YEMASSEE TO SUMMERVILLE TO HUGER...SOME SLEET MIXING IN ALONG IT WITH HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN REPORTED. HEAVIER PCPN NOW INCREASING NORTH OF A COBBTOWN TO NEWINGTON LINE AT 630 PM. WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXING WITH LIQUID RAIN SINCE THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. OUR 00Z SOUNDING CONFIRMED WHAT THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE ABOVE A 2000 FT DEEP SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER. RUC13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE DOING FAIRLY WELL AT TRACKING THE THERMAL PROFILE THIS EVENING. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE PROFILE WILL TRANSITION TO A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SC AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARD COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA...RAIN WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SLEET OCCASIONALLY MIXING IN. THEN THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPES PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BY LATE THIS EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS THE GA BEACHES. THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A POTENT UPPER VORT LIFTS NORTHEAST...COINCIDENT WITH A POTENT UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. LATE THIS EVENING THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS OUR INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES COOL ENOUGH THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET. THIS TREND WILL TREK STEADILY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY DAYBREAK. FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OUR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA ZONES WILL MAINLY EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...IT IS OF COURSE VERY CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION SINCE THE PRECIP WILL BE TRANSITIONING CONSTANTLY. ALSO...SINCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THE QPF MAY FALL AS SLEET RATHER THAN SNOW...THIS DECREASES THE LIQUID TO SOLID CONVERSION RATIO. OUR LATEST FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BEING 2-3 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SC...ALONG WITH THE GREATER ICE ACCRETION UP TO HALF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE THE TOTALS WILL DIMINISH AS ONE MOVES SOUTH AND WEST...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL OCCUR. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS. IT IS UNCLEAR IF WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA ICE OR SNOW/SLEET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GA. HOWEVER TRAVEL WILL CERTAINLY BE HAMPERED AND EVERYONE IN THE WARNING IS ADVISED TO AVOID TRAVELING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WE STILL EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE 18Z NAM AND GFS KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...A BIT FARTHER BACK INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SNOW WITH A LITTLE SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE. ASSUMING WE HAVE SOME ICE ON THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING MUCH. WE WILL PROBABLY NOT BREAK FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHILE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 34-35F DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING. MUCH OF THE ICE THAT REMAINS AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS WILL PROBABLY NOT MELT VERY MUCH ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE RESULTING LIGHT WINDS...WHEN COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...WILL SUPPORT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT. CONSIDERING THE ALREADY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE THAT SUPPRESSED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. A BAROCLINIC ZONE PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS. WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY MONITOR NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AS A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AN ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO PUSH LOCALLY ONSHORE. THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE OFFSHORE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ANY PRECIPITATION LINGERING NEAR THE COAST DURING THE MORNING WILL ALSO SHIFT INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINING BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE TRANSITIONING SURFACE PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE...YET STILL BE SUPPRESSED WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE 40 DEGREE RANGE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES STILL ABLE TO FALL INTO THE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AND FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A WARMING TREND...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...HEIGHTS BUILD WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT ONLY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KCHS...FREEZING RAIN HAS SET IN AT THE TERMINAL AND PERIODS OF HEAVIER FZRA WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. MUCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR CIGS INTO THE MID MORNING BUT COLD DRIER AIR TO NORTH CONTINUES TO MAKE CIGS A TOUCH AND GO FORECAST ELEMENT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ALSO LIKELY THIS EVENING. THE FREEZING RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING BUT OUR CONFIDENCE HAS NOT CHANGED ENOUGH TO ALTER THE OVERALL MIXED PCPN TREND IN THE TAFS. MVFR CIGS OR LOWER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WED. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN EPISODES. KSAV...STILL WAITING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO ARRIVE AT THE TERMINAL BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS STILL BRING IT IN BY MID EVENING. WE HAVE FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 02Z AND SLEET COULD BE MIXED IN AT TIMES BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LINGERING SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF WEDNESDAY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SYSTEM. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTH WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED...AND THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE NEARSHORE AND 8 TO 10 FT OFFSHORE. A CONSTANT INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND/OR EVEN CHANGE OVER TO SOME FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EAST AND SHOULD KEEP ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FAR TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THERE WILL STILL BE A SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEARSHORE WATERS AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE ZONES. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS AS THE SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY...THEN SHIFTS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WINDS/SEAS WILL AGAIN CLIMB TOWARD POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... DUE TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES THERE IS A RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 29TH... KCHS...41 SET IN 2000. KCHL...36 SET IN 1897. KSAV...33 SET IN 1897. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ040- 042>045-047>052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352- 354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JRL/WMS LONG TERM...33/WMS AVIATION... MARINE...JRL/WMS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
311 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 .DISCUSSION... 255 PM CST THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE /DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE SO WITH A WARNING. THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN ANY ONE LOCATION. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30 TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY MORNING. MTF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY. THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT SNOW FOR EVERYONE. FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY. WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY. JEE && .CLIMATE... DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS: CHICAGO ROCKFORD JAN 27... RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13 RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2 JAN 28... RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22 RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5 JAN 29... RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20 RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9 DEUBELBEISS && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRIFTING...BUT IMPACTS TO VSBY INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. * GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25KT. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES LEADING TO VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30 KT RANGE...AND WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BLOWING SNOW IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE WAVES OF BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NIGHT LEADING TO VSBY BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE VERTICAL VISIBILITIES RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CIGS. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * LOW CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO VSBY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SPEED/TRENDS. * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. FRIDAY...VFR...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. RATZER && .MARINE... 244 AM CST CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WHILE STILL SEEING REPORTS OF GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW GALES BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT WILL THEN REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 25-30KT RANGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH 30 KT WINDS...A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION MIDWEEK MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING AT LEAST A BRIEF LULL IN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY. WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY. WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742- LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872- LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364- LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743- NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
245 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 .DISCUSSION... 255 PM CST THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE /DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE SO WITH A WARNING. THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN ANY ONE LOCATION. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30 TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY MORNING. MTF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY. THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT SNOW FOR EVERYONE. FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY. WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY. JEE && .CLIMATE... DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS: CHICAGO ROCKFORD JAN 27... RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13 RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2 JAN 28... RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22 RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5 JAN 29... RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20 RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9 DEUBELBEISS && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VSBY AT TIMES. * GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EASING THIS EVENING. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES LEADING TO VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30 KT RANGE...AND WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BLOWING SNOW IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE WAVES OF BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NIGHT LEADING TO VSBY BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE VERTICAL VISIBILITIES RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CIGS. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING VSBY CHANGES OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VARIABLE VSBY IN WAVES OF BLOWING SNOW. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SPEED/TRENDS. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. FRIDAY...VFR...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. RATZER && .MARINE... 244 AM CST CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WHILE STILL SEEING REPORTS OF GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW GALES BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT WILL THEN REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 25-30KT RANGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH 30 KT WINDS...A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION MIDWEEK MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING AT LEAST A BRIEF LULL IN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY. WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY. WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742- LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872- LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364- LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743- NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1147 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... 255 PM CST THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE /DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE SO WITH A WARNING. THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN ANY ONE LOCATION. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30 TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY MORNING. MTF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY. THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT SNOW FOR EVERYONE. FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY. WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY. JEE && .CLIMATE... DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS: CHICAGO ROCKFORD JAN 27... RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13 RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2 JAN 28... RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22 RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5 JAN 29... RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20 RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9 DEUBELBEISS && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VSBY AT TIMES. * GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EASING THIS EVENING. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES LEADING TO VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30 KT RANGE...AND WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BLOWING SNOW IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE WAVES OF BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NIGHT LEADING TO VSBY BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE VERTICAL VISIBILITIES RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CIGS. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING VSBY CHANGES OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VARIABLE VSBY IN WAVES OF BLOWING SNOW. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SPEED/TRENDS. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. FRIDAY...VFR...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. RATZER && .MARINE... 151 PM CST WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING...RELATIVELY LIGHTER SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY. ALTHOUGH...A QUICKLY APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY HAS SINCE CHANGED THESE CONDITIONS...AND REPLACED THEM WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE. 20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED PRIMARILY OVER THE NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...BUT WITH THIS QUICKLY CHANGING AS SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH GALES QUICKLY BEING OBSERVED OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE AND NEARSHORE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST GALES CAN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LINGERING INTO THE REST OF THE DAY MONDAY. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING GALES COULD LINGER SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN THE CURRENT GALE WARNING THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WITH REGARDS TO THE POSSIBILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINE END TIME AND JUST MENTION GALE FORCE GUSTS. A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BUT ALSO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY. WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023...3 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY. IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...3 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY. WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019...3 AM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742- LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872- LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364- LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743- NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1152 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014 RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WINDS...SNOW...AND DIVING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND CAUSE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY START TO WARM BACK UP. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WITH THE EXTREME COLD WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES FOR SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 825 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014 MILD EVENING BY RECENT STANDARDS AS TEMPS REMAIN FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AT 01Z. DO NOT BE FOOLED AS THIS VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE CLUTCHES OF OLD MAN WINTER WILL END ABRUPTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. A NUMBER OF ISSUES TO DELVE INTO AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT LOCATION AT 01Z IS FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN/ CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE REASONABLY WELL TO THIS POINT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL USE IT AS A GENERAL GUIDE FOR TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... GENERALLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. TO THIS POINT...SNOW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE BEEN HEAVIEST OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN IOWA. PRECIP HAS ACTUALLY STARTED AS LIGHT RAIN FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD AT ONSET FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS BACK INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN HERE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF INDY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS INITIALLY. AS STATED IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT RAIN AT ONSET...EXPECT IT TO BE VERY BRIEF AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES SHOULD ENABLE LOW LEVEL SATURATION WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN RAPIDLY FALLS BELOW FREEZING. CURRENT HRRR CONTINUES TO BRING SQUALLS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AFTER 02Z...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST QUICKLY. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHALLOW BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 900MB AND A THIN LAYER OF INSTABILITY TO BOOT FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH 40-50KTS NOTED AT ABOUT 3KFT...THE PRESENCE OF AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ANTICIPATE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THE SQUALLS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONE WILL ONLY BE AN INCH OR SO AT MOST...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL BRING A RENEWED PERIOD OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS THE SQUALLS PASS ALONG WITH DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE SQUALLS NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE-BLOOMINGTON- COLUMBUS LINE...AND WILL LIKELY ADD A STRONGLY WORDED SPS THAT FOCUSES STRICTLY ON THE IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW SQUALLS TO GO ALONG WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AT THIS POINT AND WILL MAKE ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS. RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE RULE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED 300-400 MILES BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE INTENSE COLD ADVECTION AND EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ENABLE ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE ADDITIONAL PROBLEM COURTESY OF OUR RAPID THAW TODAY AND REFREEZE TONIGHT AS TEMPS TUMBLE...ICY SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO FORM WHERE ROADS EXPERIENCED MELTING. ALL IN ALL...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND CREATE YET ANOTHER DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR ZERO BY DAYBREAK WITH WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -10F. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014 EXTREME COLD WILL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH THE MORNING TO COVER WIND CHILLS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ANY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE BUT CLOUD COVER CLEARING OUT. BY LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD START A BIG DESCENT AND AFTER THE SUN SETS THEY WILL PLUMMET. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -26C HAVE CUT FROM EVEN COLDEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH THEIR CLIMO BIAS AND WENT NEAR THE RAW MODEL NUMBERS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS. THIS YIELDED LOW TEMPERATURES FROM -18 IN THE NORTH TO -4 IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING FROM DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE 10-20 MPH AND THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF -30 TO -40 FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -25 IN THE SOUTH. THUS WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY SOUTH. WILL START THESE PRODUCTS AT THE SAME TIME /17Z/ AS THE END OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA UNTIL AROUND 0Z TUESDAY BUT WILL SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WILL RUN THE ADVISORY IN THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WHEN WIND CHILLS WILL GET ABOVE CRITERIA /-15/ AND STAY THERE. IN THE NORTH THOUGH EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO GET A LITTLE BETTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT...SO FOR NOW WILL RUN THE WARNING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THIS COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY...BUT TRYING TO KEEP HEADLINES AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE. FOR TUESDAY KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST RATHER THAN GOING WITH WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT SHOW MUCH WARMING AND THINK CLIMO BIAS IS BUMPING NUMBERS UP TOO MUCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN USED RAW MODEL NUMBERS KEEPING LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH TO 20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. WARMING STARTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND CONSALL HANDLED THIS WELL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014 MODELS AGREE THAT LATE NEXT WEEK A SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING A MORE WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. ALSO...FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEEK AND THEN POSSIBLY LIFT BACK NORTH WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE BY SATURDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING LEVEL WITH ALL THICKNESSES ALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. SO...WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 32 DEGREES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES INCREASE A BIT AGAIN FRIDAY WITH THE SOUTH LOOKING MORE LIKE RAIN AND THE NORTH RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS NOT THAT GREAT THIS FAR OUT WITH POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO BE A BIG KEY. FOR NOW WILL JUST ACCEPT REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRENDS BUT NOT AS MUCH THE EXACT NUMBERS AS MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH THE FINE DETAILS ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND THUS IMPULSES COMING AND GOING QUICKLY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014 WINDS ARE A MAJOR IMPACT TO OPERATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTS DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD MAY REMAIN ABOVE 40KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. FRONT IS THROUGH ALL SITES...OR SHOULD BE AT ISSUANCE TIME...AND WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED OF 25+KT WITH GUSTS OF 40+KT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...AND GUSTS TOMORROW MAY ONLY BE TO NEAR 25-30KT. MAY SEE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS BUT TOO TRANSIENT TO BOTHER WITH INCLUSION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS IN THE COLD ADVECTION TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW HAVE BACKED OFF TO SCT025 WITH A BKN040 DECK. SREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AND GUSTS WILL END IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057. WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-065. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ051>053-060>064-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...NIELD VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1124 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 Will be updating the forecast to clear out some of the northern counties from the wind advisory. All but a hand full of observations mainly across east central KS have seen winds gradually diminish. With both the RAP and NAM progging the pressure gradient to weaken as the night progresses, the wind speeds should continue a gradual weakening trend overnight and should remain below advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 351 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 Current surface analysis at 20Z shows a prefrontal trough located across southern NE, while the cold front was not far behind in central NE. The pressure gradient behind the front is rather impressive as well as a 20 degree drop in temperature. Given the current southward speed of the front as well as agreement between the latest RAP and HRRR it should enter the forecast area around 23Z. By 01Z the front should stretch along a line from Abilene to Leavenworth, and finally exiting the forecast area around 03Z. Directly behind this front will be a rapid increase in winds gusting 40 to 50 mph across the entire area. There is the possibility across the eastern half of the forecast area that gusts reach 50 to 55 mph directly behind the front. Latest forecast soundings are also suggesting an isolated rain or snow shower along the front. The light precip combined with the strong winds could cause brief periods of low visibilities...no accumulation is expected. Winds will gradually decrease through the overnight hours still sustained around 15 to 20 mph at sunrise. Overnight lows reach the single digits causing wind chills to drop to 15 below zero. Given the latest forecast trends have will make no changes to the wind and wind chill advisories. Tomorrow high pressure continues to build into the region and highs only reach the mid to upper 20s. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 351 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 For much of Monday night into Tuesday morning, some of the coldest air of the season will be holding strong over the area while surface high pressure dominates the region...centered on the northeast corner of Kansas. Expect mostly clear skies through the overnight hours as well, which along with nearly calm winds indicates a very cold night is in store. It is climatologically very difficult to fall below zero without snow cover, but it certainly seems possible on Tuesday morning, especially in northeast KS. Will then have the base of an upper trough rotate through the area during the day on Tuesday with some indication of enough moisture and ascent to support light snow...mainly over central KS. Will have to see how it plays out as it doesn`t look like much of a precip maker at this point. Even without precip, could see cloud cover building in after the very cold morning which may keep daytime temps lower despite warm advection. Beyond Tuesday, the upper level flow pattern attempts a gradual change away from the sharp northerly flow currently in place. A series of weak disturbances will move through the more zonal flow pattern, but they are so weak, fast moving, and somewhat lacking of deep moisture that any precip chances appear very small locally with each disturbance passing. One such small chance appears to be maximized on Friday, while another is in store for Sunday. The late weekend/early next week storm system has better access to deep moisture with southwesterly upper flow and some Gulf of Mexico influence but the main question is if the storm track will come overhead or hold south of the area. Temperatures through the long term appear fairly stable, and near normal or a bit colder than normal. Also of note, the short wave troughs in the long term do not look nearly as windy as the clipper systems of the past two weeks. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 VFR conditions should persist through the day Monday as a dry arctic airmass builds into the area. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ034-035-037-040- 054>056-058-059. WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 4 AM to 11 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ010>012. && $$ UPDATE...Wolters SHORT TERM...Sanders LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1135 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance. UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 Will be updating shortly to expire the Wind Advisory. Some gusts 35 to 40 mph will be possible for a few more hours mainly over southeast Missouri and adjacent portions of southern Illinois and west Kentucky. As for the gridded forecast, skies, winds and temperatures are reasonable shape, but the dewpoints have just mixed down below zero over much of the area in the last hour. Don`t usually mention dewpoints mixing down at sunrise, but this isn`t an ordinary situation. Will attempt to adjust to the exceedingly dry air, but all guidance is struggling to catch up to it as well. UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 No changes to headlines are planned with this forecast. The Arctic cold front has cleared the entire area. A brief period of gusts 40 to 50 mph developed right behind the front, but winds have dropped off quite a bit in most locations. The LAMP guidance is generating near advisory level winds through 12Z over southeast Missouri generally in a zone from Cape Girardeau to New Madrid, so will plan on leaving the Wind Advisory alone. The 12Z expiration should workout well. The RUC has been doing well with temperature trends behind the front, so have followed it fairly closely through the day today. It is never a comfortable feeling when the current temperatures are considerably higher than the forecast high temperatures, but that is rightfully the case this morning. Should see temperatures bottom out around 15Z when they will range from 8 or 9 along I-64, to 19 or 20 near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. A slight moderating trend is expected through mid-afternoon, but a band of fairly solid mid-level clouds will hamper it, especially in the south. May see more recovery in the north than in the south. Wind chills will also bottom out around 15Z, but current forecast wind chills are only expected to range from -6 to -10 in the Advisory area. Will let the wind chill advisory continue with slightly higher than preferred wind chills. There is enough uncertainty in the wind and temperature forecasts to allow a little buffer in case conditions are worse than currently forecast. Regardless, wind chills in the north through the afternoon are not likely to reach above zero, and only single digits above zero are expected in the south. For lows tonight, the latest guidance is warmer (relative term) than the previous forecast. I tried to blend the two, which results in sub-zero temperatures only along and north of I-64. The 00Z NAM and GFS each show a swath of mid-clouds coming back north across the southern half of the area overnight, which should help hold up temperatures there, especially over southeast Missouri. Some portions of southeast Missouri may not drop into the single digits. Wind chills will continue to be below zero through the night in the north and eventually will get there through the entire area. Some portions of the I-64 corridor may touch -10 again, but winds are expected to drop off considerably in that region, so it may just be cold with actual temperatures dropping to near zero. Will let the day shift take a look at things before deciding whether another advisory is warranted for tonight and early Tuesday. Will issue another SPS to address the extent of the cold conditions today through Wednesday morning. Should see good coverage of mid-cloud as the primary large-scale trough moves through the region Tuesday. With the main low-level cold pool overhead during the day temperatures will only warm into the teens. For Tuesday night, the GFS is the slowest to develop a pressure gradient over the region, and really keeps winds light or calm through the night. The NAM and ECMWF are more aggressive with the return of southerly winds across the area overnight. Decided to lean toward the GFS, and took lows down to or a bit below MAV numbers. With sub-zero dewpoints across the area and highs only in the teens, it may not be that far-fetched for some at least isolated areas to drop close to zero overnight. The low-level cold pool pushes east of the area Wednesday, and decent southwest low-level flow develops. This will allow temperatures to warm up into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with portions of southeast Missouri maybe actually reaching the freezing mark. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 By the start of the extended forecast period, the ECMWF/GFS ensemble means appear to be in reasonable agreement in solutions showing the wrn U.S. mid/upper trof finally breaking down and eventually being replaced by a longwave trof. This will put the PAH forecast area into swrly flow aloft. The smaller scale details are more uncertain, though at least the 00z GFS/ECMWF operational runs agree fairly well. Highs are expected to get above freezing through the period. Early Fri, it appears the PAH forecast area will be in the warm sector of an approaching sfc low pressure system. "Warm" is relative, though, as temps and the vertical profile still appear to be cold enough for snow, and perhaps sleet during the day Fri near the AR/TN borders. Fri night, a sfc trof of low pressure should cross our region somewhere in the vicinity, depending on model solution. Low level warm air advection should keep pcpn liquid for most of the region, except perhaps the I-64 corridor where snow/sleet is more probable. An attendant cold front is forecast to move through the PAH forecast area sometime early Sat, and pcpn may be snow in the nrn third of the region, transitioning to rain further south. The latest GFS/ECMWF runs show dry high pressure in place by Sat night, but the initialization blend still contained chance PoPs all the way through Sun. This was left in the forecast at this time because of recent instability in the models. If pcpn does occur, it may be a wintry mix for roughly the nrn half of the our region Sat night and Sun. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Northerly winds at 12-14 knots gusting to 18-24 knots will continue through 00Z, then drop to aob 10 knots for the remainder of the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
609 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 608 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 Will be updating shortly to expire the Wind Advisory. Some gusts 35 to 40 mph will be possible for a few more hours mainly over southeast Missouri and adjacent portions of southern Illinois and west Kentucky. As for the gridded forecast, skies, winds and temperatures are reasonable shape, but the dewpoints have just mixed down below zero over much of the area in the last hour. Don`t usually mention dewpoints mixing down at sunrise, but this isn`t an ordinary situation. Will attempt to adjust to the exceedingly dry air, but all guidance is struggling to catch up to it as well. UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 No changes to headlines are planned with this forecast. The Arctic cold front has cleared the entire area. A brief period of gusts 40 to 50 mph developed right behind the front, but winds have dropped off quite a bit in most locations. The LAMP guidance is generating near advisory level winds through 12Z over southeast Missouri generally in a zone from Cape Girardeau to New Madrid, so will plan on leaving the Wind Advisory alone. The 12Z expiration should workout well. The RUC has been doing well with temperature trends behind the front, so have followed it fairly closely through the day today. It is never a comfortable feeling when the current temperatures are considerably higher than the forecast high temperatures, but that is rightfully the case this morning. Should see temperatures bottom out around 15Z when they will range from 8 or 9 along I-64, to 19 or 20 near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. A slight moderating trend is expected through mid-afternoon, but a band of fairly solid mid-level clouds will hamper it, especially in the south. May see more recovery in the north than in the south. Wind chills will also bottom out around 15Z, but current forecast wind chills are only expected to range from -6 to -10 in the Advisory area. Will let the wind chill advisory continue with slightly higher than preferred wind chills. There is enough uncertainty in the wind and temperature forecasts to allow a little buffer in case conditions are worse than currently forecast. Regardless, wind chills in the north through the afternoon are not likely to reach above zero, and only single digits above zero are expected in the south. For lows tonight, the latest guidance is warmer (relative term) than the previous forecast. I tried to blend the two, which results in sub-zero temperatures only along and north of I-64. The 00Z NAM and GFS each show a swath of mid-clouds coming back north across the southern half of the area overnight, which should help hold up temperatures there, especially over southeast Missouri. Some portions of southeast Missouri may not drop into the single digits. Wind chills will continue to be below zero through the night in the north and eventually will get there through the entire area. Some portions of the I-64 corridor may touch -10 again, but winds are expected to drop off considerably in that region, so it may just be cold with actual temperatures dropping to near zero. Will let the day shift take a look at things before deciding whether another advisory is warranted for tonight and early Tuesday. Will issue another SPS to address the extent of the cold conditions today through Wednesday morning. Should see good coverage of mid-cloud as the primary large-scale trough moves through the region Tuesday. With the main low-level cold pool overhead during the day temperatures will only warm into the teens. For Tuesday night, the GFS is the slowest to develop a pressure gradient over the region, and really keeps winds light or calm through the night. The NAM and ECMWF are more aggressive with the return of southerly winds across the area overnight. Decided to lean toward the GFS, and took lows down to or a bit below MAV numbers. With sub-zero dewpoints across the area and highs only in the teens, it may not be that far-fetched for some at least isolated areas to drop close to zero overnight. The low-level cold pool pushes east of the area Wednesday, and decent southwest low-level flow develops. This will allow temperatures to warm up into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with portions of southeast Missouri maybe actually reaching the freezing mark. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 By the start of the extended forecast period, the ECMWF/GFS ensemble means appear to be in reasonable agreement in solutions showing the wrn U.S. mid/upper trof finally breaking down and eventually being replaced by a longwave trof. This will put the PAH forecast area into swrly flow aloft. The smaller scale details are more uncertain, though at least the 00z GFS/ECMWF operational runs agree fairly well. Highs are expected to get above freezing through the period. Early Fri, it appears the PAH forecast area will be in the warm sector of an approaching sfc low pressure system. "Warm" is relative, though, as temps and the vertical profile still appear to be cold enough for snow, and perhaps sleet during the day Fri near the AR/TN borders. Fri night, a sfc trof of low pressure should cross our region somewhere in the vicinity, depending on model solution. Low level warm air advection should keep pcpn liquid for most of the region, except perhaps the I-64 corridor where snow/sleet is more probable. An attendant cold front is forecast to move through the PAH forecast area sometime early Sat, and pcpn may be snow in the nrn third of the region, transitioning to rain further south. The latest GFS/ECMWF runs show dry high pressure in place by Sat night, but the initialization blend still contained chance PoPs all the way through Sun. This was left in the forecast at this time because of recent instability in the models. If pcpn does occur, it may be a wintry mix for roughly the nrn half of the our region Sat night and Sun. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 Latest guidance is keeping mid-level ceilings over the entire region throughout the period, with little chance of any lower cloud decks. Very gusty north winds will be strongest at the beginning of the period for just a few hours and then a gradual diminishing trend is expected through the remainder of the period. The strongest winds this morning are likely to be at KCGI where some gusts up to 35kts will still be possible for a few hours. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ075>078- 080>087. MO...NONE. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KYZ014-018- 019. && $$ UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
535 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 No changes to headlines are planned with this forecast. The Arctic cold front has cleared the entire area. A brief period of gusts 40 to 50 mph developed right behind the front, but winds have dropped off quite a bit in most locations. The LAMP guidance is generating near advisory level winds through 12Z over southeast Missouri generally in a zone from Cape Girardeau to New Madrid, so will plan on leaving the Wind Advisory alone. The 12Z expiration should workout well. The RUC has been doing well with temperature trends behind the front, so have followed it fairly closely through the day today. It is never a comfortable feeling when the current temperatures are considerably higher than the forecast high temperatures, but that is rightfully the case this morning. Should see temperatures bottom out around 15Z when they will range from 8 or 9 along I-64, to 19 or 20 near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. A slight moderating trend is expected through mid-afternoon, but a band of fairly solid mid-level clouds will hamper it, especially in the south. May see more recovery in the north than in the south. Wind chills will also bottom out around 15Z, but current forecast wind chills are only expected to range from -6 to -10 in the Advisory area. Will let the wind chill advisory continue with slightly higher than preferred wind chills. There is enough uncertainty in the wind and temperature forecasts to allow a little buffer in case conditions are worse than currently forecast. Regardless, wind chills in the north through the afternoon are not likely to reach above zero, and only single digits above zero are expected in the south. For lows tonight, the latest guidance is warmer (relative term) than the previous forecast. I tried to blend the two, which results in sub-zero temperatures only along and north of I-64. The 00Z NAM and GFS each show a swath of mid-clouds coming back north across the southern half of the area overnight, which should help hold up temperatures there, especially over southeast Missouri. Some portions of southeast Missouri may not drop into the single digits. Wind chills will continue to be below zero through the night in the north and eventually will get there through the entire area. Some portions of the I-64 corridor may touch -10 again, but winds are expected to drop off considerably in that region, so it may just be cold with actual temperatures dropping to near zero. Will let the day shift take a look at things before deciding whether another advisory is warranted for tonight and early Tuesday. Will issue another SPS to address the extent of the cold conditions today through Wednesday morning. Should see good coverage of mid-cloud as the primary large-scale trough moves through the region Tuesday. With the main low-level cold pool overhead during the day temperatures will only warm into the teens. For Tuesday night, the GFS is the slowest to develop a pressure gradient over the region, and really keeps winds light or calm through the night. The NAM and ECMWF are more aggressive with the return of southerly winds across the area overnight. Decided to lean toward the GFS, and took lows down to or a bit below MAV numbers. With sub-zero dewpoints across the area and highs only in the teens, it may not be that far-fetched for some at least isolated areas to drop close to zero overnight. The low-level cold pool pushes east of the area Wednesday, and decent southwest low-level flow develops. This will allow temperatures to warm up into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with portions of southeast Missouri maybe actually reaching the freezing mark. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 By the start of the extended forecast period, the ECMWF/GFS ensemble means appear to be in reasonable agreement in solutions showing the wrn U.S. mid/upper trof finally breaking down and eventually being replaced by a longwave trof. This will put the PAH forecast area into swrly flow aloft. The smaller scale details are more uncertain, though at least the 00z GFS/ECMWF operational runs agree fairly well. Highs are expected to get above freezing through the period. Early Fri, it appears the PAH forecast area will be in the warm sector of an approaching sfc low pressure system. "Warm" is relative, though, as temps and the vertical profile still appear to be cold enough for snow, and perhaps sleet during the day Fri near the AR/TN borders. Fri night, a sfc trof of low pressure should cross our region somewhere in the vicinity, depending on model solution. Low level warm air advection should keep pcpn liquid for most of the region, except perhaps the I-64 corridor where snow/sleet is more probable. An attendant cold front is forecast to move through the PAH forecast area sometime early Sat, and pcpn may be snow in the nrn third of the region, transitioning to rain further south. The latest GFS/ECMWF runs show dry high pressure in place by Sat night, but the initialization blend still contained chance PoPs all the way through Sun. This was left in the forecast at this time because of recent instability in the models. If pcpn does occur, it may be a wintry mix for roughly the nrn half of the our region Sat night and Sun. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 Latest guidance is keeping mid-level ceilings over the entire region throughout the period, with little chance of any lower cloud decks. Very gusty north winds will be strongest at the beginning of the period for just a few hours and then a gradual diminishing trend is expected through the remainder of the period. The strongest winds this morning are likely to be at KCGI where some gusts up to 35kts will still be possible for a few hours. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR ILZ075>078- 080>094. WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ075>078- 080>087. MO...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR INZ081-082- 085>088. WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR KYZ001>022. WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KYZ014-018- 019. && $$ UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
359 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 No changes to headlines are planned with this forecast. The Arctic cold front has cleared the entire area. A brief period of gusts 40 to 50 mph developed right behind the front, but winds have dropped off quite a bit in most locations. The LAMP guidance is generating near advisory level winds through 12Z over southeast Missouri generally in a zone from Cape Girardeau to New Madrid, so will plan on leaving the Wind Advisory alone. The 12Z expiration should workout well. The RUC has been doing well with temperature trends behind the front, so have followed it fairly closely through the day today. It is never a comfortable feeling when the current temperatures are considerably higher than the forecast high temperatures, but that is rightfully the case this morning. Should see temperatures bottom out around 15Z when they will range from 8 or 9 along I-64, to 19 or 20 near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. A slight moderating trend is expected through mid-afternoon, but a band of fairly solid mid-level clouds will hamper it, especially in the south. May see more recovery in the north than in the south. Wind chills will also bottom out around 15Z, but current forecast wind chills are only expected to range from -6 to -10 in the Advisory area. Will let the wind chill advisory continue with slightly higher than preferred wind chills. There is enough uncertainty in the wind and temperature forecasts to allow a little buffer in case conditions are worse than currently forecast. Regardless, wind chills in the north through the afternoon are not likely to reach above zero, and only single digits above zero are expected in the south. For lows tonight, the latest guidance is warmer (relative term) than the previous forecast. I tried to blend the two, which results in sub-zero temperatures only along and north of I-64. The 00Z NAM and GFS each show a swath of mid-clouds coming back north across the southern half of the area overnight, which should help hold up temperatures there, especially over southeast Missouri. Some portions of southeast Missouri may not drop into the single digits. Wind chills will continue to be below zero through the night in the north and eventually will get there through the entire area. Some portions of the I-64 corridor may touch -10 again, but winds are expected to drop off considerably in that region, so it may just be cold with actual temperatures dropping to near zero. Will let the day shift take a look at things before deciding whether another advisory is warranted for tonight and early Tuesday. Will issue another SPS to address the extent of the cold conditions today through Wednesday morning. Should see good coverage of mid-cloud as the primary large-scale trough moves through the region Tuesday. With the main low-level cold pool overhead during the day temperatures will only warm into the teens. For Tuesday night, the GFS is the slowest to develop a pressure gradient over the region, and really keeps winds light or calm through the night. The NAM and ECMWF are more aggressive with the return of southerly winds across the area overnight. Decided to lean toward the GFS, and took lows down to or a bit below MAV numbers. With sub-zero dewpoints across the area and highs only in the teens, it may not be that far-fetched for some at least isolated areas to drop close to zero overnight. The low-level cold pool pushes east of the area Wednesday, and decent southwest low-level flow develops. This will allow temperatures to warm up into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with portions of southeast Missouri maybe actually reaching the freezing mark. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 By the start of the extended forecast period, the ECMWF/GFS ensemble means appear to be in reasonable agreement in solutions showing the wrn U.S. mid/upper trof finally breaking down and eventually being replaced by a longwave trof. This will put the PAH forecast area into swrly flow aloft. The smaller scale details are more uncertain, though at least the 00z GFS/ECMWF operational runs agree fairly well. Highs are expected to get above freezing through the period. Early Fri, it appears the PAH forecast area will be in the warm sector of an approaching sfc low pressure system. "Warm" is relative, though, as temps and the vertical profile still appear to be cold enough for snow, and perhaps sleet during the day Fri near the AR/TN borders. Fri night, a sfc trof of low pressure should cross our region somewhere in the vicinity, depending on model solution. Low level warm air advection should keep pcpn liquid for most of the region, except perhaps the I-64 corridor where snow/sleet is more probable. An attendant cold front is forecast to move through the PAH forecast area sometime early Sat, and pcpn may be snow in the nrn third of the region, transitioning to rain further south. The latest GFS/ECMWF runs show dry high pressure in place by Sat night, but the initialization blend still contained chance PoPs all the way through Sun. This was left in the forecast at this time because of recent instability in the models. If pcpn does occur, it may be a wintry mix for roughly the nrn half of the our region Sat night and Sun. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 By the effective time of the 06z Monday TAF issuance, all of the TAF locations will see the strong northwest winds in excess of 30 knots sustained and around 45 knot gusts. There will be a short period behind the front where post frontal ceilings will fall into the 2-2.5kft AGL range before lifting back to VFR category ceilings. Transitioned remainder of forecast to reflect gradual decrease in wind speeds. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR ILZ075>078- 080>094. WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ075>078- 080>087. MO...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR INZ081-082- 085>088. WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR KYZ001>022. WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KYZ014-018- 019. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
514 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 22Z. COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PLUNGE EASTWARD ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS DURING THE LAST HOUR HAVE BEEN OVER 30 KTS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL STILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL RUNS BRING RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO THE MOUNTAINS DESPITE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THROUGH TUESDAY. PREV DISC...COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND IS GENERALLY ALONG A CARIBOU/FARMINGTON/CONCORD LINE. WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUING OVER THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH PW VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR STATION 50 YR MINIMUMS. THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL INHIBIT THE COOLING PROCESSES SOMEWHAT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -30 F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN EXPECTING LOWS NEAR ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND -5 F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TOMORROW WILL BE COLD WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WSW WILL BE GUSTY BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THEY WILL BE THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND INTO THE TEENS SOUTH IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE MODERATED SLIGHTLY BUT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS COLD ACROSS THE NORTH. STILL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MEAN L/WV TROF POSITION OVER THE GT LAKES WILL BE VERY SLOWLY RETROGRADING LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A MORE ZONAL WSWLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH ONLY MINOR S/WVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW. NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. THE DEEP ARCTIC AMS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA WILL RETREAT AND REMAIN OVER CANADA. WITH THIS PATTERN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND MODEL GUID FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND REMAIN GUSTY WELL AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXCEPT PSBLY MVFR IN SCT SNW SHWRS THU NIGHT OR FRI. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS. THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE E ALLOWING INCREASING S SW FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. A COLD FNT MOVES THRU FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING AT SCA LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ012-013. NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001>003. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ004. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ151-153. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1235 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TODAY AND DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE 1225L: STRONG WAA AHEAD OF LOW PASSING JUST NW OF THE AREA HAS PUSHED MILD ABV FREEZING SFC TEMPS TO A NE-SW LINE FROM KHUL TO JUST NW OF KBGR... HAVE UPDATED HRLY TEMPS AND WX GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. HAVE ALSO DROPPED THE WNTR WX ADV FOR ZNS 15>17 AND 11/32 AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABV FREEZING AND NO LONGER A THREAT OF FZRA... UPDATE 0930L: SNOW ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ATTM AS SFC LOW PRES OVR SRN QUEBEC LIFTS NEWRD TOWARD THE AREA... STRONG WAA ON THE E SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND UP ACROSS OUR AREA RESULTING IN BIG TEMP DIFFS W/ TEMPS RANGING FROM JUST BLO ZERO FAR N TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COAST. GETTING SOME COLD AIR DAMMING INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THIS LEADING TO SOME PATCHY LGT FZRA BEING RPTD AT KBGR LAST HR. HAVE UPDATE OUR GRIDS TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF SOME LGT FZRA INTERIOR DOWNEAST THRU OUR CENTRAL ZNS TIL AROUND NOON AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. ANY ICE ACCUMS SHOULD BE LGT (<.05) BUT WILL ISSUE AN ADV NONETHELESS FOR ZNS 15>17 AND 11/31/32. 7AM UPDATE... REDUCED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON WARM ADVECTION. GOOD BANDING STILL APPEARS TO BE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING IN NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALL IN NORTHERN ZONES AS IT CROSSES. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC WILL BRING A CLIPPER TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND CREATE A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL FEATURE OVERRUNNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION AS A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 80 KT WINDS NEAR H850 BY MIDDAY. THIS LLJ WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM SUBZERO READINGS IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET. IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER OF MAINE. UPSLOPE FACTORS WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN ZONE 10 AND GREENVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MONTICELLO AND MARS HILL. AM FAVORING THE REGIONAL GEMS AND NAM...AS WELL AS THE HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEV ELOPEMENT IN NE MAINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDING STRETCHING FROM NE AROOSTOOK TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE ENTRANCE AREA OF A 170 KT UPPER JET WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE SNOW RATES IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW RATES MAY REACH OVER AN INCH AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BANDING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AS THE EVENT ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1 THROUGH 6 AND ZONE 10 INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN NE AROOSTOOK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE 31 IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND ZONE 11 IN PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR INCLUSION TO THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 2 APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS BANGOR...THE OVERRUNNING SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD EQUATE TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON THEIR WAY TO THE UPPER 30S A NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOW SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYBREAK DOWN EAST.&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIRLY QUIET AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE END OF JANUARY. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR WED EVENING...BUT THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION THU MORNING AND THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE MERCURY BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU PM. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S NORTH AND M/U 20S DOWNEAST. THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS A WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE CANADIAN AND LATEST 00Z/27TH ECMWF HAVE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAN AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE CANADIAN ONLY HAS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR THIS MORNING...LIFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL WITH VIS IN SNOW DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 50KT AT FL020...BECOMING SW LATER IN THE DAY. VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY FVE DUE TO MVFR CIGS. SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRI. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY LATE WED IN ISO -SHSN AND AGAIN FRI AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISO TO SCT -SHSN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SEAS REACHING AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN SCA THIS EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE IN WEST FLOW THAT WILL TURN MORE SW TUE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUB ADVISORY WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING OVER THE WATERS THU. ANOTHER SCA LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-031. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...KHW/MCW/CB MARINE...KHW/MCW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
957 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TODAY AND DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE 0930L: SNOW ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ATTM AS SFC LOW PRES OVR SRN QUEBEC LIFTS NEWRD TOWARD THE AREA... STRONG WAA ON THE E SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND UP ACROSS OUR AREA RESULTING IN BIG TEMP DIFFS W/ TEMPS RANGING FROM JUST BLO ZERO FAR N TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COAST. GETTING SOME COLD AIR DAMMING INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THIS LEADING TO SOME PATCHY LGT FZRA BEING RPTD AT KBGR LAST HR. HAVE UPDATE OUR GRIDS TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF SOME LGT FZRA INTERIOR DOWNEAST THRU OUR CENTRAL ZNS TIL AROUND NOON AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. ANY ICE ACCUMS SHOULD BE LGT (<.05) BUT WILL ISSUE AN ADV NONETHELESS FOR ZNS 15>17 AND 11/31/32. 7AM UPDATE... REDUCED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON WARM ADVECTION. GOOD BANDING STILL APPEARS TO BE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING IN NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALL IN NORTHERN ZONES AS IT CROSSES. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC WILL BRING A CLIPPER TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND CREATE A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL FEATURE OVERRUNNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION AS A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 80 KT WINDS NEAR H850 BY MIDDAY. THIS LLJ WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM SUBZERO READINGS IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET. IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER OF MAINE. UPSLOPE FACTORS WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN ZONE 10 AND GREENVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MONTICELLO AND MARS HILL. AM FAVORING THE REGIONAL GEMS AND NAM...AS WELL AS THE HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEV ELOPEMENT IN NE MAINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDING STRETCHING FROM NE AROOSTOOK TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE ENTRANCE AREA OF A 170 KT UPPER JET WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE SNOW RATES IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW RATES MAY REACH OVER AN INCH AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BANDING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AS THE EVENT ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1 THROUGH 6 AND ZONE 10 INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN NE AROOSTOOK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE 31 IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND ZONE 11 IN PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR INCLUSION TO THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 2 APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS BANGOR...THE OVERRUNNING SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD EQUATE TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON THEIR WAY TO THE UPPER 30S A NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOW SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYBREAK DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIRLY QUIET AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE END OF JANUARY. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR WED EVENING...BUT THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION THU MORNING AND THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE MERCURY BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU PM. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S NORTH AND M/U 20S DOWNEAST. THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS A WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE CANADIAN AND LATEST 00Z/27TH ECMWF HAVE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAN AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE CANADIAN ONLY HAS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR THIS MORNING...LIFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL WITH VIS IN SNOW DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 50KT AT FL020...BECOMING SW LATER IN THE DAY. VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY FVE DUE TO MVFR CIGS. SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRI. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY LATE WED IN ISO -SHSN AND AGAIN FRI AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISO TO SCT -SHSN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SEAS REACHING AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN SCA THIS EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE IN WEST FLOW THAT WILL TURN MORE SW TUE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUB ADVISORY WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING OVER THE WATERS THU. ANOTHER SCA LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ015>017. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...KHW/MCW/CB MARINE...KHW/MCW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
655 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TODAY AND DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 7AM UPDATE... REDUCED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON WARM ADVECTION. GOOD BANDING STILL APPEARS TO BE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING IN NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALL IN NORTHERN ZONES AS IT CROSSES. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC WILL BRING A CLIPPER TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND CREATE A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL FEATURE OVERRUNNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION AS A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 80 KT WINDS NEAR H850 BY MIDDAY. THIS LLJ WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM SUBZERO READINGS IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET. IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER OF MAINE. UPSLOPE FACTORS WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN ZONE 10 AND GREENVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MONTICELLO AND MARS HILL. AM FAVORING THE REGIONAL GEMS AND NAM...AS WELL AS THE HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEV ELOPEMENT IN NE MAINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDING STRETCHING FROM NE AROOSTOOK TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE ENTRANCE AREA OF A 170 KT UPPER JET WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE SNOW RATES IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW RATES MAY REACH OVER AN INCH AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BANDING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AS THE EVENT ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1 THROUGH 6 AND ZONE 10 INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN NE AROOSTOOK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE 31 IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND ZONE 11 IN PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR INCLUSION TO THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 2 APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS BANGOR...THE OVERRUNNING SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD EQUATE TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON THEIR WAY TO THE UPPER 30S A NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOW SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYBREAK DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIRLY QUIET AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE END OF JANUARY. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR WED EVENING...BUT THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION THU MORNING AND THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE MERCURY BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU PM. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S NORTH AND M/U 20S DOWNEAST. THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS A WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE CANADIAN AND LATEST 00Z/27TH ECMWF HAVE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAN AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE CANADIAN ONLY HAS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR THIS MORNING...LIFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL WITH VIS IN SNOW DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 50KT AT FL020...BECOMING SW LATER IN THE DAY. VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY FVE DUE TO MVFR CIGS. SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRI. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY LATE WED IN ISO -SHSN AND AGAIN FRI AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISO TO SCT -SHSN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SEAS REACHING AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN SCA THIS EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE IN WEST FLOW THAT WILL TURN MORE SW TUE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUB ADVISORY WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING OVER THE WATERS THU. ANOTHER SCA LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...MCW/CB MARINE...MCW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
404 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TODAY AND DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC WILL BRING A CLIPPER TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND CREATE A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL FEATURE OVERRUNNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION AS A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 80 KT WINDS NEAR H850 BY MIDDAY. THIS LLJ WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM SUBZERO READINGS IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET. IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER OF MAINE. UPSLOPE FACTORS WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN ZONE 10 AND GREENVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MONTICELLO AND MARS HILL. AM FAVORING THE REGIONAL GEMS AND NAM...AS WELL AS THE HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEV ELOPEMENT IN NE MAINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDING STRETCHING FROM NE AROOSTOOK TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE ENTRANCE AREA OF A 170 KT UPPER JET WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE SNOW RATES IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW RATES MAY REACH OVER AN INCH AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BANDING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AS THE EVENT ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1 THROUGH 6 AND ZONE 10 INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN NE AROOSTOOK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE 31 IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND ZONE 11 IN PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR INCLUSION TO THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 2 APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS BANGOR...THE OVERRUNNING SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD EQUATE TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON THEIR WAY TO THE UPPER 30S A NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOW SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYBREAK DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIRLY QUIET AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE END OF JANUARY. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR WED EVENING...BUT THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION THU MORNING AND THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE MERCURY BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU PM. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S NORTH AND M/U 20S DOWNEAST. THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS A WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE CANADIAN AND LATEST 00Z/27TH ECMWF HAVE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAN AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE CANADIAN ONLY HAS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR THIS MORNING...LIFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL WITH VIS IN SNOW DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 50KT AT FL020...BECOMING SW LATER IN THE DAY. VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY FVE DUE TO MVFR CIGS. SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRI. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY LATE WED IN ISO -SHSN AND AGAIN FRI AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISO TO SCT -SHSN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SEAS REACHING AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN SCA THIS EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE IN WEST FLOW THAT WILL TURN MORE SW TUE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUB ADVISORY WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING OVER THE WATERS THU. ANOTHER SCA LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...MCW/CB MARINE...MCW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1020 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 840 PM...FCST/WARNINGS/ADVSYS LUK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST RDR/SAT PIX/SFC OBS INDICATING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVNG UP THRU ERN/NE NC AND SE VA...WITH GENERALLY LGT SNOW FALLING N AND W OF A CAMBRIDGE TO PETERSBURG TO SOUTH HILL LINE. LATEST RUC SHOWS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER OVER EXTRM SE VA INTO NE AND ERN NC. THE RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVR THIS SAME AREA INTO VERY EARLY WED MORNG...AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH ONE INCH PER HOUR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH IDEAL FOR SNOW...IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SFC LATE THIS AFTN. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE RANGE OF 10 ABOVE ZERO SE TO 10 BELOW ZERO NW. WEAK RADAR ECHO RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS AFTN AS THE COASTAL LOW SHIFTS TO A LOCATION ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. RIGHT NOW IT IS EASIER TO SEE THE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW VIA THE CC AND ZDR DUAL POL PRODUCTS. DURING THIS EVENING A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL GET UNDER WAY. THIS WILL ALL WORK TOGETHER TO ENHANCE LIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CREATING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER WARM NOSE BTWN 850-750 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST ENOUGH MELTING ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF SLEET OR A SLEET/SNOW MIX TO OCCUR THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY IN NE NC CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET MIX WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANGE TO SLEET HAS LOWERED SNOW RATIOS AND STORM TOTAL SNOW ESTIMATES BY SEVERAL INCHES IN THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF NE NC...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TOTALS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL STILL AVERAGE OUT TO 6 TO 12 INCHES (JUST THE DISTRIBUTION HAS CHANGED). AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING NEAR THE COAST LATE WED MORNING/EARLY WED AFTN. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT THIS EVENING AS SNOW QUICKLY ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS WITHIN THE AREAS UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES/STORM WARNINGS. POOR ROAD CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ON WED WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT INTO WED MORNING/AFTN. ASIDE FROM A DELAYED START TO SNOWFALL TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE ONGOING WINTER HEADLINES. PORTIONS OF THE NRN NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE WERE UPGRADED FROM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. ALSO...CAROLINE AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES WERE ADDED TO ONGOING WINTER ADVISORY HEADLINES. PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING TEXT PRODUCT (WBCWSWAKQ) FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TIMING...AND IMPACTS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. CLEARING SKIES ON WED WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WED NIGHT AS RECENT SNOWFALL AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TWD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO BY THU MORNING (10-15 DEGREES IMMEDIATE COAST). TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY AS WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO GRADUALLY ADVECTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING SNOWPACK MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM WARMING TOO MUCH ON THU. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RELAXATION OF THE VERY COLD PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WKND...THOUGH CONDS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WK. WARM FRONT LIFT N OF THE RGN FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES TRACKS TO THE ERN LAKES. TRAILING CDFNT FOLLOWS INTO/ACRS THE FA SUN BRINGING INCRSD PCPN CHCS (RA). GRADUAL DRYING (THOUGH CLDNS MAY HANG ON OVR SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA)/SEASONABLE WX LT SUN INTO MON...THEN MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCRS/RETURN BY TUE AS NEXT STM SYS EJECTS FM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER NE NC EXTENDING NORTH TO NORTHERN VA. ACCUM SO FAR HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM 2-4 INCHES ACROSS NC AND SE VA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. WINDS ARE N 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTY...AND VSBY 1/2-3 MI IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SNOWFALL RATES INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/2SM TO 1SM (POSSIBLY 1/4SM AT TIMES) SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NE NC AND FAR SE VA DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS KECG/KORF/KPHF. NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL COME INTO EFFECT FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVING NE. EXPECT WINDS TO AVG 20-25 KT GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS BY LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST WINDS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT (HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN THE CWF/MWW BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREQUENT GUSTS TO STAYED W/ SCA HEADLINES RATHER THAN GALE WARNINGS). SEAS WILL AVG 5-6 FT N TO 6-9 FT S AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS SUBSIDE TO15-20 KT OR LESS BY WED AFTN...BUT SEAS WILL TEND TO STAY UP AT 5 FT OR GREATER OUT 20 NM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN OR EVENING SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN. SNOW (MODERATE TO HEAVY TIMES) WILL ADD TO REDUCED VSBYS TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER WED NIGHT-FRI WITH IMPROVING/SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE N WINDS BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AFTN AND THEN SSW ON FRI. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 15 KT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ023>025. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021- 022. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012>014- 030. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ015>017- 031-032-102. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ078- 084>094-096-099-100. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ095-097- 098. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ060- 063>068-070>077-079>083. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631- 633-635>638-650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...SAM MARINE...JDM/LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
852 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 840 PM...FCST/WARNINGS/ADVSYS LUK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST RDR/SAT PIX/SFC OBS INDICATING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVNG UP THRU ERN/NE NC AND SE VA...WITH GENERALLY LGT SNOW FALLING N AND W OF A CAMBRIDGE TO PETERSBURG TO SOUTH HILL LINE. LATEST RUC SHOWS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER OVER EXTRM SE VA INTO NE AND ERN NC. THE RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVR THIS SAME AREA INTO VERY EARLY WED MORNG...AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH ONE INCH PER HOUR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH IDEAL FOR SNOW...IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SFC LATE THIS AFTN. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE RANGE OF 10 ABOVE ZERO SE TO 10 BELOW ZERO NW. WEAK RADAR ECHO RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS AFTN AS THE COASTAL LOW SHIFTS TO A LOCATION ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. RIGHT NOW IT IS EASIER TO SEE THE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW VIA THE CC AND ZDR DUAL POL PRODUCTS. DURING THIS EVENING A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL GET UNDER WAY. THIS WILL ALL WORK TOGETHER TO ENHANCE LIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CREATING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER WARM NOSE BTWN 850-750 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST ENOUGH MELTING ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF SLEET OR A SLEET/SNOW MIX TO OCCUR THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY IN NE NC CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET MIX WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANGE TO SLEET HAS LOWERED SNOW RATIOS AND STORM TOTAL SNOW ESTIMATES BY SEVERAL INCHES IN THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF NE NC...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TOTALS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL STILL AVERAGE OUT TO 6 TO 12 INCHES (JUST THE DISTRIBUTION HAS CHANGED). AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING NEAR THE COAST LATE WED MORNING/EARLY WED AFTN. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT THIS EVENING AS SNOW QUICKLY ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS WITHIN THE AREAS UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES/STORM WARNINGS. POOR ROAD CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ON WED WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT INTO WED MORNING/AFTN. ASIDE FROM A DELAYED START TO SNOWFALL TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE ONGOING WINTER HEADLINES. PORTIONS OF THE NRN NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE WERE UPGRADED FROM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. ALSO...CAROLINE AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES WERE ADDED TO ONGOING WINTER ADVISORY HEADLINES. PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING TEXT PRODUCT (WBCWSWAKQ) FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TIMING...AND IMPACTS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. CLEARING SKIES ON WED WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WED NIGHT AS RECENT SNOWFALL AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TWD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO BY THU MORNING (10-15 DEGREES IMMEDIATE COAST). TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY AS WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO GRADUALLY ADVECTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING SNOWPACK MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM WARMING TOO MUCH ON THU. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RELAXATION OF THE VERY COLD PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WKND...THOUGH CONDS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WK. WARM FRONT LIFT N OF THE RGN FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES TRACKS TO THE ERN LAKES. TRAILING CDFNT FOLLOWS INTO/ACRS THE FA SUN BRINGING INCRSD PCPN CHCS (RA). GRADUAL DRYING (THOUGH CLDNS MAY HANG ON OVR SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA)/SEASONABLE WX LT SUN INTO MON...THEN MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCRS/RETURN BY TUE AS NEXT STM SYS EJECTS FM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS (OVC SKIES 5-7K FT) PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. NLY WINDS INLAND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20 KT ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RESULTING IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON AND IFR BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NC...INCLUDING KECG. EXPECT PL TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE FOR NE NC...PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SNOW WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/2SM TO 1SM (POSSIBLY 1/4SM AT TIMES) SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NE NC AND FAR SE VA DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS KECG/KORF/KPHF. NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL COME INTO EFFECT FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVING NE. EXPECT WINDS TO AVG 20-25 KT GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS BY LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST WINDS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT (HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN THE CWF/MWW BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREQUENT GUSTS TO STAYED W/ SCA HEADLINES RATHER THAN GALE WARNINGS). SEAS WILL AVG 5-6 FT N TO 6-9 FT S AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS SUBSIDE TO15-20 KT OR LESS BY WED AFTN...BUT SEAS WILL TEND TO STAY UP AT 5 FT OR GREATER OUT 20 NM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN OR EVENING SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN. SNOW (MODERATE TO HEAVY TIMES) WILL ADD TO REDUCED VSBYS TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER WED NIGHT-FRI WITH IMPROVING/SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE N WINDS BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AFTN AND THEN SSW ON FRI. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 15 KT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ023>025. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021- 022. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012>014- 030. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ015>017- 031-032-102. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ078- 084>094-096-099-100. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ095-097- 098. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ060- 063>068-070>077-079>083. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631- 635>637-650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...JDM/SAM MARINE...JDM/LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
706 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH A BROAD DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NAMERICA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE AROUND -25C...LES CONTINUES OFF MAINLY NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A W-WSW WIND FLOW WHERE VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF OPEN WATER. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE ICE-COVERED EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A NARROW PORTION JUST WEST OF THE KEWEENAW ALTHOUGH WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN FM NRN ONTARIO MAKING IT HARDER TO DISCERN ICE COVERAGE OVER WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KCMX HAS REPORTED OCCASIONAL VSBY OF 1/2SM OR LOWER...VSBY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW BASED ON WEBCAMS. THUS...DECIDED TO CANCEL LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY ON MORNING UPDATE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN UP TO NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AS NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WIND CHILLS AT KCMX ARE STILL SOLIDLY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY (-30F OR LOWER) WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25F HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS. AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE ADDING BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES...SO COUNTIES FROM BARAGA AND IRON WESTWARD WILL BE IN ADVISORIES THROUGH 16Z WED. PORTIONS OF WRN MQT COUNTY COULD REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT BUT MOST OF THE COUNTY SHOULD STAY ABV -25F SO DECIDED AGAINST HEADLINE THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE OR JUST ABV ADVISORY CRITERIA. COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT A BIG FALL IN TEMPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SW CWA NEAR THE WI BDR WHERE LOWS COULD APPROACH -12F IN A FEW SPOTS. RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FROM THE RECENT BELOW ZERO HIGHS...NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. OUR STREAK OF DAYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONTINUES...WITH TODAY BEING THE 54TH DAY IN A ROW. LOOKING AT LONG TERM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE DATA...NONE OF THE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND ONLY A RUN OR TWO NEAR DAY 15. THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WE WILL BE NEARING THE RECORD OF 72 DAYS (SET IN 1978-1979) WHEN WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z THURSDAY AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO JAMES BAY BY 18Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND DEPART THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT (WHICH AFFECTS MUCH OF THE U.P.) WILL BE A LITTLE MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY NEAR EACH OTHER THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING OVER THE WEST HALF...BUT IF THE INTENSITY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (MUCH OF THE FORCING/CLOUD IN THE DGZ). BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P. AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -16C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH ICE COVER BUILDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT THAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND LOW END DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE GFS IS STARTING TO COME AROUND TO IT. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE SLIGHT POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERLY WIND BELTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 704 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD AT KCMX...FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE...WINDS WILL VEER SOME TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN -SHSN/BLSN THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF DISTURBANCE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. RAPIDLY EXPANDING ICE COVER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT -SHSN INTENSITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BLO VFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. EXPECT WSW GALES TO 40 KTS OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS AGAIN SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE E. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>004-009-010-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263- 264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EDGE OF EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR OR SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C. WITH BEST FORCING ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE NOW EAST OF THE CWA...LES BANDS ON RADAR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND BECOME MORE SPACED APART DUE TO INFLUX OF DRIER AIR UPSTREAM. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE ERN SHORELINE PRODUCING OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND CHILLS CONTINUE IN THE -23 TO -30F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO THE -30F TO -35F RANGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK WESTERLY BY LATE EVENING...FOCUSING LES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE ERN SHORE FROM AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION COULD ENHANCED LES TONIGHT OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE AREAS WHERE LES ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EAST AND INTO TUE MORNING OVER THE KEWEENAW. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE AND LACK OF A DGZ. HOWEVER...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING VSBY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WHERE LES IS OCCURRING. WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE BECAUSE A STEADY WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED MORE OVER THE AREA INSTEAD OF OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT THAT WON`T BE THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER ALONG THE WRN INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO -30 TO -45F OVER MUCH OF AREA AND CONTINUE INTO TUE MORNING. THIS WILL WARRANT CONTINUED WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FAR EAST CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK WEST OR WSW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LES OFFSHORE OF THE ERN SHORELINE AREAS BY EARLY TUE AND GRADUALLY PUSH LES INTO MAINLY KEWEENAW COUNTY OVER THE NW BY TUE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEN...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SNOW BELTS TO START TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. BUT AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE DETRIMENTAL AFFECTS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH 875MB TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND -24C...THE WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WILL END UP LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE LAKE EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH...A FAIRLY NICE BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER MOVING EAST THROUGH ONTARIO) TO SWEEP ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL SINK...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW. MUCH OF THE CLOUD/FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ...SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE IF SNOW OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A LIGHT DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P. AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -17C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE 12Z GFS FAILS TO SHOW A LOW. WAS HOPING THAT EACH MODELS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD LEAD TO SOME SUPPORT IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT THEY ALL WERE AROUND 50/50 ON WHETHER A LOW WILL OCCUR. THUS...WILL FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND BELTS THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY WRLY WIND FLOW OR SPECIFICALLY KCMX. HOWEVER...GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL STILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO MVFR AT KSAW AND POSSIBLY IFR AT KIWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT KCMX...EXPECT GENERALLY PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE W THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...RESULTING IN MORE VIS RESTRICTION FROM BLSN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES TO 40 KTS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TO 35 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW GALES TO 35 KT WED NIGHT WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THU INTO FRI MORNING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>014-084. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266- 267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244- 245-248-264-265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 527 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMES BAY. CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS NOW SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -31C 850MB TEMPS INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -33C OVER FAR NE MN. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...MESOLOW...MDT/HVY LES AND STRONG WINDS MOVED ONSHORE IN ALGER COUNTY LAST NIGHT AS EXPECTED. SEVERAL BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ALGER COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SHIFTING STEADILY E AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK. THESE MAIN LES BANDS ARE NOW EAST OF MUNISING. THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH LES WEST OF THESE HEAVIER LES BANDS OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN ALLOWED THE BROKEN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SOLIDIFY. HOWEVER...IN THE LAST HR OR TWO...KMQT RADAR IS SHOWING LES BANDS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AND STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...A SIGN THAT ICE MAY BE OPENING UP AGAIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T TAKE MUCH OPEN WATER TO GET LES GOING... ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. OUT W...KCMX/KIWD HAVE HAD VIS GENERALLY BTWN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM IN -SHSN/BLSN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE THRU NE MN WILL HELP MAINTAIN HEAVIER LES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A NOTABLE DECLINE IN LES INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE HEAVIER LES EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE VERY COLD AIR KEEPING THE COLUMN FREE OF THE DGZ. WILL ALLOW ONGOING HEADLINES PERTAINING TO LES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER COUNTY WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOME AND HEAVIER LES DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS E. THAT SAID...BLSN WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM DURING THE AFTN IN OPEN AREAS. ADDED LES ADVY TO LUCE COUNTY AS BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES AND VERY POOR VIS SHIFT ACROSS THE COUNTY... ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE LES/BLSN WILL BECOME CONFINED MAINLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY. OUT W...LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. CERTAINLY SHSN...SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AS THIS MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE AS OF 5 AM EST OVER MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI...AND A FEW SPOTS OUT W ARE NEARING -35F NOW. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...EXPECT WIND CHILLS AT MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL TO OR BLO -35F DURING THE MORNING HRS. WINDS BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT...SHIFTING LES TO BE CONFINED MORE TO NW UPPER MI...KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHORE FROM AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE THE USUAL CONVERGENCE INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION...BUT IT`S A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP DUE TO AREAS OF ICE ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ALTERING THE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. IN ANY EVENT...DID HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS SHIFTING N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN. WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DIDN`T GO CRAZY WITH LOW TEMPS AS A STEADY WIND WILL BE BLOWING. IF HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT THAT`S NOT THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO -30 TO -45F. ON A SIDE NOTE...NAM MOS SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY COLD MINS TONIGHT (-30F AT KSAW/-23F AT KCMX/-16F AT KP59 FOR EXAMPLE)...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE MODEL INCORRECTLY DEPICTING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS TOTALLY ICE COVERED. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEN...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SNOW BELTS TO START TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. BUT AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE DETRIMENTAL AFFECTS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH 875MB TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND -24C...THE WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WILL END UP LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE LAKE EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH...A FAIRLY NICE BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER MOVING EAST THROUGH ONTARIO) TO SWEEP ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL SINK...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW. MUCH OF THE CLOUD/FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ...SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE IF SNOW OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A LIGHT DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P. AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -17C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE 12Z GFS FAILS TO SHOW A LOW. WAS HOPING THAT EACH MODELS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD LEAD TO SOME SUPPORT IN EITHER DIRECTION...BUT THEY ALL WERE AROUND 50/50 ON WHETHER A LOW WILL OCCUR. THUS...WILL FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND BELTS THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY WRLY WIND FLOW OR SPECIFICALLY KCMX. HOWEVER...GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL STILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO MVFR AT KSAW AND POSSIBLY IFR AT KIWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT KCMX...EXPECT GENERALLY PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE W THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...RESULTING IN MORE VIS RESTRICTION FROM BLSN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES OF 35-45KTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINLING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...ANOTHE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN HUDSON BAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OF EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>014-084. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266- 267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244- 245-248-264-265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
107 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 527 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMES BAY. CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS NOW SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -31C 850MB TEMPS INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -33C OVER FAR NE MN. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...MESOLOW...MDT/HVY LES AND STRONG WINDS MOVED ONSHORE IN ALGER COUNTY LAST NIGHT AS EXPECTED. SEVERAL BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ALGER COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SHIFTING STEADILY E AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK. THESE MAIN LES BANDS ARE NOW EAST OF MUNISING. THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH LES WEST OF THESE HEAVIER LES BANDS OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN ALLOWED THE BROKEN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SOLIDIFY. HOWEVER...IN THE LAST HR OR TWO...KMQT RADAR IS SHOWING LES BANDS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AND STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...A SIGN THAT ICE MAY BE OPENING UP AGAIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T TAKE MUCH OPEN WATER TO GET LES GOING... ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. OUT W...KCMX/KIWD HAVE HAD VIS GENERALLY BTWN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM IN -SHSN/BLSN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE THRU NE MN WILL HELP MAINTAIN HEAVIER LES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A NOTABLE DECLINE IN LES INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE HEAVIER LES EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE VERY COLD AIR KEEPING THE COLUMN FREE OF THE DGZ. WILL ALLOW ONGOING HEADLINES PERTAINING TO LES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER COUNTY WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOME AND HEAVIER LES DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS E. THAT SAID...BLSN WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM DURING THE AFTN IN OPEN AREAS. ADDED LES ADVY TO LUCE COUNTY AS BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES AND VERY POOR VIS SHIFT ACROSS THE COUNTY... ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE LES/BLSN WILL BECOME CONFINED MAINLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY. OUT W...LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. CERTAINLY SHSN...SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AS THIS MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE AS OF 5 AM EST OVER MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI...AND A FEW SPOTS OUT W ARE NEARING -35F NOW. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...EXPECT WIND CHILLS AT MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL TO OR BLO -35F DURING THE MORNING HRS. WINDS BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT...SHIFTING LES TO BE CONFINED MORE TO NW UPPER MI...KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHORE FROM AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE THE USUAL CONVERGENCE INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION...BUT IT`S A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP DUE TO AREAS OF ICE ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ALTERING THE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. IN ANY EVENT...DID HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS SHIFTING N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN. WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DIDN`T GO CRAZY WITH LOW TEMPS AS A STEADY WIND WILL BE BLOWING. IF HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT THAT`S NOT THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO -30 TO -45F. ON A SIDE NOTE...NAM MOS SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY COLD MINS TONIGHT (-30F AT KSAW/-23F AT KCMX/-16F AT KP59 FOR EXAMPLE)...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE MODEL INCORRECTLY DEPICTING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS TOTALLY ICE COVERED. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 522 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 ICE COVER...OR THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER LIKELY BEING CALCULATED IN SOME OF THE FCST MODELS IS HAVING AN IMPACT. RECENT HIGH WINDS HAVE BROKEN UP MUCH OF THE ICE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED...AS WELL AS THE SMALL-SCALE MODELS THAT USE THE NAM AS A BASELINE. SKY COVER...QPF...AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW IN ONSHORE WIND SCENARIOS...AND WINDS COULD BE TOO LOW OR TOO STRONG. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FCST PROCESS. RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MORE HAND EDITING AS NEEDED TO FIT THE CONCEPTUAL MODELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST NATIONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 20S. WE WILL NOT BE REACHING NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TO START OUT TUESDAY...WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. W-SW WINDS 10-15MPH AND TEMPS AROUND -10 TO -20F WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30 TO NEAR 45 BELOW ZERO RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING. THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W HALF...FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. WILL HOWEVER NEED NEW HEADLINES FOR ALGER/N SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS CURRENT SNOW HEADLINES EXPIRE LATER TODAY. FOR TUESDAY UPPER MI WILL REMAIN LOCKED BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER S HUDSON BAY THROUGH N QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. HAVE INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR STEADY W-NW FLOW OF COLD AIR...BEFORE SW WINDS SHIFT ANY LINGERING LES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RISING FROM AN AVERAGE -25C TO -10C BY 00Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE FCST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS 15-20F. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOULD CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A 3-4HR DIFFERENCE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER TO TURN THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND BRING BACK LES. ASSUMING THAT THE STRONG WINDS OF 20-30KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TOO MUCH ICE FROM FORMING OVER THE LAKE...CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE LES POTENTIAL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND EAST OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DGZ EVEN MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS...AND WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLL IN HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS STILL JUST ABOVE THE DGZ. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY WRLY WIND FLOW OR SPECIFICALLY KCMX. HOWEVER...GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL STILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO MVFR AT KSAW AND POSSIBLY IFR AT KIWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT KCMX...EXPECT GENERALLY PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE W THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...RESULTING IN MORE VIS RESTRICTION FROM BLSN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES OF 35-45KTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINLING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...ANOTHE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN HUDSON BAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OF EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>014-084. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ009. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263- 266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244- 245-248-264-265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 527 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMES BAY. CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS NOW SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -31C 850MB TEMPS INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -33C OVER FAR NE MN. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...MESOLOW...MDT/HVY LES AND STRONG WINDS MOVED ONSHORE IN ALGER COUNTY LAST NIGHT AS EXPECTED. SEVERAL BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ALGER COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SHIFTING STEADILY E AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK. THESE MAIN LES BANDS ARE NOW EAST OF MUNISING. THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH LES WEST OF THESE HEAVIER LES BANDS OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN ALLOWED THE BROKEN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SOLIDIFY. HOWEVER...IN THE LAST HR OR TWO...KMQT RADAR IS SHOWING LES BANDS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AND STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...A SIGN THAT ICE MAY BE OPENING UP AGAIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T TAKE MUCH OPEN WATER TO GET LES GOING... ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. OUT W...KCMX/KIWD HAVE HAD VIS GENERALLY BTWN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM IN -SHSN/BLSN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE THRU NE MN WILL HELP MAINTAIN HEAVIER LES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A NOTABLE DECLINE IN LES INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE HEAVIER LES EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE VERY COLD AIR KEEPING THE COLUMN FREE OF THE DGZ. WILL ALLOW ONGOING HEADLINES PERTAINING TO LES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER COUNTY WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOME AND HEAVIER LES DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS E. THAT SAID...BLSN WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM DURING THE AFTN IN OPEN AREAS. ADDED LES ADVY TO LUCE COUNTY AS BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES AND VERY POOR VIS SHIFT ACROSS THE COUNTY... ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE LES/BLSN WILL BECOME CONFINED MAINLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY. OUT W...LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. CERTAINLY SHSN...SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AS THIS MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE AS OF 5 AM EST OVER MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI...AND A FEW SPOTS OUT W ARE NEARING -35F NOW. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...EXPECT WIND CHILLS AT MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL TO OR BLO -35F DURING THE MORNING HRS. WINDS BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT...SHIFTING LES TO BE CONFINED MORE TO NW UPPER MI...KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHORE FROM AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE THE USUAL CONVERGENCE INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION...BUT IT`S A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP DUE TO AREAS OF ICE ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ALTERING THE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. IN ANY EVENT...DID HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS SHIFTING N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN. WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DIDN`T GO CRAZY WITH LOW TEMPS AS A STEADY WIND WILL BE BLOWING. IF HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT THAT`S NOT THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO -30 TO -45F. ON A SIDE NOTE...NAM MOS SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY COLD MINS TONIGHT (-30F AT KSAW/-23F AT KCMX/-16F AT KP59 FOR EXAMPLE)...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE MODEL INCORRECTLY DEPICTING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS TOTALLY ICE COVERED. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 522 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 ICE COVER...OR THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER LIKELY BEING CALCULATED IN SOME OF THE FCST MODELS IS HAVING AN IMPACT. RECENT HIGH WINDS HAVE BROKEN UP MUCH OF THE ICE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED...AS WELL AS THE SMALL-SCALE MODELS THAT USE THE NAM AS A BASELINE. SKY COVER...QPF...AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW IN ONSHORE WIND SCENARIOS...AND WINDS COULD BE TOO LOW OR TOO STRONG. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FCST PROCESS. RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MORE HAND EDITING AS NEEDED TO FIT THE CONCEPTUAL MODELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST NATIONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 20S. WE WILL NOT BE REACHING NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TO START OUT TUESDAY...WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. W-SW WINDS 10-15MPH AND TEMPS AROUND -10 TO -20F WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30 TO NEAR 45 BELOW ZERO RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING. THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W HALF...FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. WILL HOWEVER NEED NEW HEADLINES FOR ALGER/N SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS CURRENT SNOW HEADLINES EXPIRE LATER TODAY. FOR TUESDAY UPPER MI WILL REMAIN LOCKED BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER S HUDSON BAY THROUGH N QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. HAVE INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR STEADY W-NW FLOW OF COLD AIR...BEFORE SW WINDS SHIFT ANY LINGERING LES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RISING FROM AN AVERAGE -25C TO -10C BY 00Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE FCST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS 15-20F. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOULD CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A 3-4HR DIFFERENCE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER TO TURN THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND BRING BACK LES. ASSUMING THAT THE STRONG WINDS OF 20-30KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TOO MUCH ICE FROM FORMING OVER THE LAKE...CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE LES POTENTIAL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND EAST OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DGZ EVEN MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS...AND WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLL IN HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS STILL JUST ABOVE THE DGZ. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 701 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NW TO W...SNOW SHOWERS WILL END AT KIWD TODAY. UNTIL THEN...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL TREND TO MVFR BY AFTN THEN TO VFR BY LATE AFTN. AT KCMX... EXPECT CONDITIONS VARYING BTWN IFR AND LIFR THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A TREND TO PREVAILING LIFR FOR THE AFTN AND TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE W AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...RESULTING IN MORE VIS RESTRICTION FROM BLSN. NW TO W WINDS WILL BE THE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR -SHSN AT KSAW WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. EXPECT CONDITIONS VARYING BTWN VFR AND MVFR TODAY WITH VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT UNDER DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES OF 35-45KTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINLING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...ANOTHE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN HUDSON BAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OF EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>014-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-014-085. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263- 266-267. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244- 245-248-264-265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
529 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 527 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMES BAY. CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS NOW SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -31C 850MB TEMPS INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -33C OVER FAR NE MN. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...MESOLOW...MDT/HVY LES AND STRONG WINDS MOVED ONSHORE IN ALGER COUNTY LAST NIGHT AS EXPECTED. SEVERAL BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ALGER COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SHIFTING STEADILY E AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK. THESE MAIN LES BANDS ARE NOW EAST OF MUNISING. THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH LES WEST OF THESE HEAVIER LES BANDS OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN ALLOWED THE BROKEN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SOLIDIFY. HOWEVER...IN THE LAST HR OR TWO...KMQT RADAR IS SHOWING LES BANDS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AND STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...A SIGN THAT ICE MAY BE OPENING UP AGAIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T TAKE MUCH OPEN WATER TO GET LES GOING... ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. OUT W...KCMX/KIWD HAVE HAD VIS GENERALLY BTWN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM IN -SHSN/BLSN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE THRU NE MN WILL HELP MAINTAIN HEAVIER LES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A NOTABLE DECLINE IN LES INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE HEAVIER LES EARLY THIS MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE VERY COLD AIR KEEPING THE COLUMN FREE OF THE DGZ. WILL ALLOW ONGOING HEADLINES PERTAINING TO LES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER COUNTY WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOME AND HEAVIER LES DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS E. THAT SAID...BLSN WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM DURING THE AFTN IN OPEN AREAS. ADDED LES ADVY TO LUCE COUNTY AS BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES AND VERY POOR VIS SHIFT ACROSS THE COUNTY... ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE LES/BLSN WILL BECOME CONFINED MAINLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY. OUT W...LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. CERTAINLY SHSN...SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AS THIS MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE AS OF 5 AM EST OVER MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI...AND A FEW SPOTS OUT W ARE NEARING -35F NOW. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...EXPECT WIND CHILLS AT MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL TO OR BLO -35F DURING THE MORNING HRS. WINDS BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT...SHIFTING LES TO BE CONFINED MORE TO NW UPPER MI...KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHORE FROM AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE THE USUAL CONVERGENCE INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION...BUT IT`S A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP DUE TO AREAS OF ICE ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ALTERING THE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. IN ANY EVENT...DID HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS SHIFTING N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN. WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DIDN`T GO CRAZY WITH LOW TEMPS AS A STEADY WIND WILL BE BLOWING. IF HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT THAT`S NOT THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO -30 TO -45F. ON A SIDE NOTE...NAM MOS SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY COLD MINS TONIGHT (-30F AT KSAW/-23F AT KCMX/-16F AT KP59 FOR EXAMPLE)...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE MODEL INCORRECTLY DEPICTING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS TOTALLY ICE COVERED. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 522 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 ICE COVER...OR THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER LIKELY BEING CALCULATED IN SOME OF THE FCST MODELS IS HAVING AN IMPACT. RECENT HIGH WINDS HAVE BROKEN UP MUCH OF THE ICE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED...AS WELL AS THE SMALL-SCALE MODELS THAT USE THE NAM AS A BASELINE. SKY COVER...QPF...AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW IN ONSHORE WIND SCENARIOS...AND WINDS COULD BE TOO LOW OR TOO STRONG. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FCST PROCESS. RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MORE HAND EDITING AS NEEDED TO FIT THE CONCEPTUAL MODELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST NATIONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 20S. WE WILL NOT BE REACHING NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TO START OUT TUESDAY...WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. W-SW WINDS 10-15MPH AND TEMPS AROUND -10 TO -20F WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30 TO NEAR 45 BELOW ZERO RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING. THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W HALF...FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. WILL HOWEVER NEED NEW HEADLINES FOR ALGER/N SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS CURRENT SNOW HEADLINES EXPIRE LATER TODAY. FOR TUESDAY UPPER MI WILL REMAIN LOCKED BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER S HUDSON BAY THROUGH N QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. HAVE INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR STEADY W-NW FLOW OF COLD AIR...BEFORE SW WINDS SHIFT ANY LINGERING LES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RISING FROM AN AVERAGE -25C TO -10C BY 00Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE FCST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS 15-20F. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOULD CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A 3-4HR DIFFERENCE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER TO TURN THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND BRING BACK LES. ASSUMING THAT THE STRONG WINDS OF 20-30KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TOO MUCH ICE FROM FORMING OVER THE LAKE...CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE LES POTENTIAL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND EAST OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DGZ EVEN MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS...AND WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLL IN HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS STILL JUST ABOVE THE DGZ. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX THROUGH TODAY AS WINDS BACK TO A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR THE FINE FLAKE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THAT WOULD LEAD TO AIRFIELD LANDING MINS. ALTHOUGH THE SLOW BACKING TREND WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO IWD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY IFR VSBY UNTIL MORNING WHEN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR LES AT KSAW WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE SITE. SO...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CIGS EVEN LIFTING TO VFR AT TIMES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES OF 35-45KTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINLING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...ANOTHE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN HUDSON BAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OF EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-014-085. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ014. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263- 266-267. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244- 245-248-264-265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1130 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 WE ADDED POPS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WE WILL CANCEL THE REST OF THE ADVISORY SHORTLY...EXCEPT FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES WHICH WE EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z. A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT REGIONS OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND GUSTY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING GOING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...AND WE EXTENDED THE MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND OF SNOW WAS STARTING TO DIMINISH...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE RAP13 SUGGESTED WOULD HAPPEN ABOUT THIS TIME. WINDS WERE STARTING TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH. WE WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GO UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND ARE LEANING TOWARD EXTENDING IT FOR BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. THOSE AREAS WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGHER ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WE`LL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE MAKING OUR DECISION. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THEM TONIGHT. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH THE LOWEST READING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUED OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A GRAVITY WAVE IN THE KDLH RADAR IMAGES. THE RAP SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z...SO WE WILL INCREASE POPS/SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS/BAYFIELD COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS ELSEWHERE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THE ONSET OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EWD THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVER NE MN AND MUCH OF NW WI THIS EVENING. A STRONG INFLUX OF COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH NRN BAYFIELD...AND ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES INTO NRN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. THE STRONG NW WINDS...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND. THE LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR WHERE HIGHER SNOW AMTS FELL LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS COINCIDE. THIS WILL BE APPROXIMATELY FROM THE LEECH LAKE/BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS/I-35 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A STRONG PUSH OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE N/NW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AND PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES -35 TO -45. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BACK DOWN LATE MONDAY. A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MODERATION EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 35 BELOW IN THE NORTH TO 25 TO 30 BELOW IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA. WE EVEN WENT WITH SOME 30 BELOW READINGS IN PORTIONS OF NW WI. WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 BELOW RANGE IN THE NORTH...AND 40 TO 50 BELOW RANGE IN THE SOUTH. THIS COULD EASILY BE ONE OF OUR COLDER NIGHTS OF THE WINTER. H85 TEMPS ALREADY START TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY...CLIMBING TO -16 TO -19C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG WAA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ON TUESDAY...THEY SHOULD REACH INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL DURING THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY VERY MINOR SYSTEMS. THE SIX TO TEN AND EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY FORECASTS CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH SOUNDS REASONABLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND AS THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING IN SPOTS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN OTHERS IN SNOW SHOWERS. WE EXPECT VARIABLE CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING MOSTLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WE ALSO EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH LATE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN WE WILL SEE A MVFR DECK OF CU DEVELOP ON MONDAY...BUT WE DID NOT ADD ANY CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -23 -13 -29 -6 / 60 10 0 0 INL -27 -17 -33 -5 / 40 10 0 0 BRD -24 -13 -31 -3 / 30 10 0 0 HYR -21 -12 -32 -4 / 60 10 0 0 ASX -17 -11 -26 -2 / 80 30 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ012- 019>021-037. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021- 025-026-033>038. WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001- 002-006>009. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ003-004. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
919 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 919 AM EST MONDAY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES NEEDED TO TODAY`S FORECAST THIS MORNING MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TEMP AND RADAR TRENDS. SNOW STILL HOLDING BACK IN THE SLV AS OF 9AM BUT WILL BE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT HAVE SHOT UP ABOVE 40 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND INTO CPV BTWN 15Z- 17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z. VALUES OFF THE SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ`S MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED. GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA. PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55 TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES. HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30 KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL BE ACRS SLV/DACKS. ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHWEST FLW. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...ALLOWING FOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 5 ABOVE AND 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MILDEST READINGS WILL BE IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS DUE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. COLD SPOTS WILL BE THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS BOTH PERIODS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS 25 TO 30 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...BUT THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. GFS MAINTAINS ZONAL FLOW AND SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE WHICH TRACKS OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE WITH 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AROUND 30. BOTH MODELS INDICATE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z WITH BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT FROPA IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 15Z-16Z AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER AT MPV/RUT. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON... EXCEPT AT SLK WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS QUITE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY WITH W-SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 610 AM EST MONDAY...FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FASTER WITH PRECIP ARRIVING/DEPARTING OUR CWA TODAY...WITH CRNT RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE SLV. THIS WL EXPAND INTO THE DACKS BY 12Z AND INTO THE CPV BTWN 13Z-15Z TODAY. ALSO...EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACRS THE MTNS OF VT BY 14Z TODAY. HAVE INCREASED TIMING BY 1 TO 2 HRS ON HRLY POP GRIDS...BUT KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THE SAME. HAVE NOTED SNINCR`S AT ROC/BUF OF 1 INCH IN 1 HR ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND THE ACCOMPANYING SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WITH VIS BRIEFLY < 1/4SM. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACRS PARTS OF OUR CWA TODAY. ALSO...HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES BEFORE FROPA OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN CPV. OTHERWISE...TEMPS QUICKLY FALL THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND INTO CPV BTWN 15Z- 17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z. VALUES OFF THE SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ`S MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED. GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA. PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55 TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES. HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30 KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL BE ACRS SLV/DACKS. ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHWEST FLW. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...ALLOWING FOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 5 ABOVE AND 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MILDEST READINGS WILL BE IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS DUE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. COLD SPOTS WILL BE THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS BOTH PERIODS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS 25 TO 30 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...BUT THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. GFS MAINTAINS ZONAL FLOW AND SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE WHICH TRACKS OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE WITH 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AROUND 30. BOTH MODELS INDICATE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AT BTV...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOSE TO 30 KTS AT BTV/MSS/SLK BY 12Z. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY 14-18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE W-SW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH W-SW WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH W-SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A FEW MVFR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
412 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE BACK ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND USHER IN A RETURN TO BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY. AT 400 AM...THE FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO BUFFALO...WITH THIS BOUNDARY FORECAST TO RACE EASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND WATERTOWN AROUND DAYBREAK...AND EXITING EAST OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATION...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE...GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS COMBINED WITH A SNOW BURST OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW WILL END ABRUPTLY FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LEANED ON THE HRRR FOR THE ULTRA-SHORT RANGE THROUGH MID-MORNING...DUE TO ITS EXCELLENT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATELLITE HINTS THAT A DRY SLOT OF AIR WILL MOVE IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PARTY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION...AND IT IS ALSO LIKELY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS...EXPECT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND UPSLOPING TO PRODUCE A GENERAL MODERATE SNOWFALL...FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN FACE OF THE TUG HILL. AFTER THIS...WINDS WILL DROP OFF A BIT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A CONVERGENCE BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE MOISTURE...AND CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO MEANDER NORTH AHEAD OF IT...AND THEN DROP SOUTH WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BAND WILL STAY FOCUSED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN PLACE. OUTSIDE OF THIS...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...SINCE LAKE ERIE IS PRIMARILY FROZEN. OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD AIR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWING A RELATIVELY WARM START EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING WINDS TONIGHT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 30 BELOW TONIGHT. WITH A CONVERGENCE BAND FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT WINDS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO STAY MORE WEST WHICH WILL ALLOW THE COLDEST AIR TO REACH THESE AREAS AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL WARNING TO THESE ZONES AS WELL...BUT KEPT THE ADVISORY IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY MORNING WILL START SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED US BY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO START THE DAY BELOW ZERO...WITH AROUND ZERO AND BELOW ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A SOUTHWEST WIND STILL 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS...WITH WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUING AS OUTLINED BELOW. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...SOME 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALSO ONGOING TUESDAY WILL BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL LOWER LAKE INSTABILITY FROM EXTREME TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WARMING WILL ALSO LOWER THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM AND CAPE VALUES...THOUGH THAT SAID THE LAKE BAND OF SNOW WILL STILL BE DUMPING SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH POSSIBLY NOT AT THE RATE IT WAS DOING MONDAY NIGHT...AS IT ALSO LOSES ITS UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EXPANDS EASTWARD...AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK SOME THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SUCH THAT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL LIFT FROM OSWEGO COUNTY BACK INTO JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THIS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. CONTINUED WEAKENING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR DIMINISHES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING. A STILL BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND COMBINED WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL COLD WIND CHILLS WITH HEADLINES AGAIN LIKELY. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANY LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE WATERTOWN AND NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE LAKE. WITH WINDS NOW SOUTHERLY...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT OUR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF ZERO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN NOAM REGION WILL SLIP NORTHEASTWARD AND MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS. A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVES TROUGHS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CANADA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE INTEGRITY OF THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. THE ONE SUBTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS THAT THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 20S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LIKELY TIMER PERIOD FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY...THOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS TO MOST TAF SITES. AFTER THIS...EXPECT GUSTY WIND TO CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW...WITH THIS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS TAPER OFF A BIT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF ART THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR TO IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WILL UPGRADE TO GALES ON LAKE ERIE...FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP ON LAKE ONTARIO AS A CLIPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ARCTIC AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THE GALES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TODAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE COMING WEEK. && .CLIMATE... THIS PAST STRETCH OF THREE MONTHS (NOVEMBER...DECEMBER...JANUARY TO DATE) HAVE THUS FAR BEEN VERY COLD...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT WINTER SEASONS. BUT HOW DOES THIS WINTER STRETCH COMPARE TO SOME OF THE HISTORICAL COLD WINTERS OVER THIS SAME NOVEMBER TO JANUARY STRETCH? BELOW IS A RANKING OF COLD WINTER STRETCHES BASED ON THEIR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY MEAN TEMPERATURES. AGAIN FOR THIS LIST THE WINTER STRETCH IS DEFINED AS NOVEMBER, DECEMBER AND JANUARY FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. BUFFALO RANK SEASON MEAN TEMPERATURE 1 1976-77 23.3 2 1917-18 23.3 3 1880-81 23.8 4 1919-20 25.8 5 1876-77 26.6 .. 10 1904-05 27.6 .. 12 1995-96 27.8 .. 20 1958-59 28.7 21 2013-14 28.8 (VALUE THROUGH 1/26) RECENT NOVEMBER-JANUARY STRETCHES... SEASON MEAN TEMPERATURE 2010-11 29.7 2011-12 37.4 2012-13 35.2 ROCHESTER RANK SEASON MEAN TEMPERATURE 1 1917-18 23.3 2 1976-77 24.8 3 1872-73 24.9 4 1880-81 25.6 5 1919-20 26.1 .. 10 1876-77 26.7 .. 19 1995-96 28.0 20 1942-43 28.1 .. 30 1970-71 28.8 31 2002-03 29.0 32 2013-14 29.1 (VALUE THROUGH 1/26) RECENT NOVEMBER-JANUARY STRETCHES... SEASON MEAN TEMPERATURE 2010-11 29.3 2011-12 37.1 2012-13 35.2 AS WE CAN SEE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS HAVE BEEN VERY COLD, ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT WINTER SEASONS. IN FACT THIS 3 MONTH STRETCH WILL BE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE PAST 2 YEARS OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING THERE HAVE BEEN MANY STRETCHES IN WINTER (NOVEMBER- DECEMBER- JANUARY) THAT HAVE BEEN COLDER. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JANUARY...AND THIS RANKING WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THIS STRETCH OF THREE MONTHS WILL BE THE COLDEST SINCE THE NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY STRETCH OF 1995-96. RECORDS FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO 1871. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-019-020-085. WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006>008. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-041. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042>045-062>065. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043>045- 063>065. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...THOMAS AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND INTO CPV BTWN 15Z- 17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z. VALUES OFF THE SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ`S MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED. GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA. PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55 TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES. HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30 KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL BE ACRS SLV/DACKS. ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHWEST FLW. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...ALLOWING FOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 5 ABOVE AND 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MILDEST READINGS WILL BE IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS DUE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. COLD SPOTS WILL BE THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS BOTH PERIODS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS 25 TO 30 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...BUT THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. GFS MAINTAINS ZONAL FLOW AND SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE WHICH TRACKS OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE WITH 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AROUND 30. BOTH MODELS INDICATE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AT BTV...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOSE TO 30 KTS AT BTV/MSS/SLK BY 12Z. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY 14-18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE W-SW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH W-SW WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH W-SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A FEW MVFR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND INTO CPV BTWN 15Z- 17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z. VALUES OFF THE SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ`S MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED. GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA. PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55 TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES. HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30 KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL BE ACRS SLV/DACKS. ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHWEST FLW. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NEWD ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ENOUGH WSWLY FLOW MAY PERSIST TO BRING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z GFS. A LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE SRN PORTIONS OF ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...DESPITE DEVELOPING SWLY WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A LIGHT SOUTH/SW WIND WILL PREVAIL IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS...KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING QUICKLY IN THOSE AREAS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS...TO 0 TO -8F ELSEWHERE WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS. MID-UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO WSWLY THURSDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME S-SW AS WELL. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...FROM -20C TO -22C AT 18Z WEDNESDAY...UP TO AROUND -10C BY 18Z THU. THIS - IN TURN - WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE MID-UPR 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THU-SUN. DECAYING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BUT IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVES STAY GENERALLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION IN 12Z GFS/ECMWF. HAVE TRENDED CONDITIONS DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST 20-30 POPS FOR -SW ACTIVITY. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AT BTV...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOSE TO 30 KTS AT BTV/MSS/SLK BY 12Z. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY 14-18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE W-SW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH W-SW WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH W-SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A FEW MVFR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...RJS/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1036 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY... WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE UNCHANGED THIS EVENING. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND REGIONAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY VALUES BLOSSOMED AND INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING...AS A PAIR OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAKS (INCLUDING A MEASURED 175 KTS IN THE NORTHERN ONE OVER KBNA) BECOME INCREASINGLY PHASED FROM THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE WAS EARLIER CONCERN THAT SNOW TOTALS MAY BE TOO HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS...WHERE A 700-850 MB WARM NOSE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 3 DEGREES NOSED INTO THOSE AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN PRECIPITATION FELL PRIMARILIY AS SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF COOLING OF THE WARM NOSE EVIDENT IN FORECAST THICKNESSES...BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND MOST RECENTLY ACTUAL OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THESE AREAS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM THERE...WITH CONTINUED ALL SNOW ELSEWHERE. WHILE THE NEW/00Z NAM HAS VERIFIED TOO HIGH BY ABOUT DOUBLE WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS...THE HRRR AND RUC HAVE VERIFIED MUCH BETTER AND INDICATE AN AVERAGE OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 1 AM AND 5 AM...YIELDING A TOTAL OF AN TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT EAST OF A WADESBORO TO RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF I- 95. THESE LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WOULD WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN SNOW RATIOS OF 8-15:1...LOWEST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS WHERE THE AFORMENTIONED RELATIVE WARMTH IN THE H7-850 LAYER RESIDES. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE AFOREMTNIONED WADESBORO TO RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS LINE - A LINE THAT NOT SURPRISINGLY COINCIDES WITH THE H85 TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS - MAY EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 1 OR 2 AM...WHERE A SATURATED LAYER DEPTH IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE NUCLEATION/MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. THIS ALREADY SHALLOW SAURATION WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...INCLUDING THE TRIAD. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT WILL BE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS...WHEN COMBINED WITH A 5-15 MPH WIND...WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. DURING OUR MULTIPLE SNOW MEASURING TRIPS OUTSIDE HERE ON NCSU CENTENNIAL CAMPUS...THE COMBINATION OF COLD...WIND...AND DAMPNESS HAS INDEED BEEN BONE- CHILLING. ALL OBSERVED SNOW REPORTS CAN BE FOUND IN BOTH THE LSR AND PNS PRODUCTS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENTLY UPDATED AS NEW REPORTS COME IN...THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... THE WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE ARA IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MID MORNING. A LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHEAR EASTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EAST AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY BUT VERY COLD CONDITIONS. SOME CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL YIELD TO A PERIOD OF HIGH OVERCAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER AND COLD AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SUBFREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FALL WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND LITTLE WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HINTED THAT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BACK INLAND ACROSS THE NC COAST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TOUGH AXIS. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS TOO MUCH BUT AM CONCERNED THAT SOME CIRRUS MAY INHIBIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES. CONTINUED COLD BUT NOT AS COLD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 16-24 RANGE WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. -BLAES && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A WELCOME WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL EDGE UP INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...AND A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MINS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING TO THE MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES OFFSHORE AND WE ENJOY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY 40 TO 45. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE = NEAR ZONAL AS THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SEASONABLY MILD HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST...AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER EXTENDED FORECAST...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. CONCURRENTLY... THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ALIGNING MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A COUPLE OF CLOUDY AND DAMP DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...NO ARCTIC AIR IS IN THE PIPELINE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE BOTH DAYS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: WINTER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN CLEARING OUT BACK TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS IT IS LIGHT AT ALL SITES AT THIS POINT WITH SNOW AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KFAY WHERE FZRA IS BEING REPORTED. THAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AFTER 3Z OR SO. THEREAFTER ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BUT CANT RULE OUT PL FOR KFAY AND KRWI. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CEASE AFTER 6Z WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING AS LATE AS 12Z WITH EASTERN SITES SEEING PRECIPITATION LAST LONGER THAN WESTERN SITES. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING HAS SUBSIDED AT THIS HOUR SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AND 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE TONIGHT BUT ANYTHING FROM VFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE AND THE SAME GOES FOR VISIBILITIES. VISIBILITIES HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR GOING TO IFR WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL. AFTER SUNRISE BOTH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LONG TERM: HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SATURDAY THAT COULD CAUSE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR JANUARY 30TH GSO 4 DEGREES SET IN 1966 RDU 7 DEGREES SET IN 1977 FAY 8 DEGREES SET IN 1934 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ008>011- 025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007- 021>024-038-039-073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...ELLIS CLIMATE...ELLIS/TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
906 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS BUT PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STILL FALLING. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT READINGS WILL STEADY OUT BY MIDDAY AND THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY MINOR DIURNAL BUMP. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS WHICH MAY DELAY WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE SUB -25 RANGE. BUT DO NOT PLAN ON ANY CHANGES TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING. MID CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE HEART OF THE BITTER COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSES IN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL LKLY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON RANGING FROM -16 OVER THE NW TO -7 SE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACRS THE NW AND STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SE. STRONG WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR THESE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. THERE WILL LKLY BE A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTN WHERE WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE ABOVE THE -25 WARNING CRITERIA AND ABOVE -10 OVER THE SOUTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BUT THESE READINGS WILL DROP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER BITTER COLD NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS IN 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WIND CHILL HEADLINES THRU THE DAY TUESDAY THRU WED MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE BUT STILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR LESS PRECIPITATION. BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN SHARPEN UP LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW IN THE NORTH BUT A MIX AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AS A STRONG COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT SOUTHERN TAF SITES CVG LUK AND ILN...WHILE NORTHERN SITES DAY CMH AND LCK WILL SEE SCT MID CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077-080. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077-080. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ078-079-081-082-088. KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073-074. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073-074. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS BUT PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FOCUS TODAY IS ON BITTER COLD OUTBREAK AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR FLOW WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM S CNTRL CANADA WILL DROP SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WORKING TO AMPLIFY THE TROF OVER THE REGION. SFC LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO TRACK TO THE NE WITH WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN OHIO...EASTERN KY. STG PRESSURE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET HAD EARLY RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FROPA. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ATTM. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED WIND ADVISORY. STRONG CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS WAS RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING TO READINGS FROM THE SINGLE DIGEST NW TO UPPER TEENS SE BY SUNRISE. BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POOL OF 8H TEMPS OF -23 TO -28 C TO PUSH INTO OHIO THIS AFTN AND ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS WITH FALLING TEMPS TODAY WITH READINGS BY LATE AFTN BELOW ZERO NW TO SINGLE DIGITS SE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. SO HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WIND CHILL REACHING -10 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACRS THE NW 2 THIRDS THIS MORNING. SO HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY FOR THIS AREA THRU THE MORNING. WITH WIND CHILLS PLUNGING BY EVENING TO 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW EXPECT TO START TO APPROACH WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE KEPT WINCH CHILL WARNING BEGINNING AT NOON. ACRS THE FAR SOUTH HAVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY STARTING AT NOON WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING 10 BELOW LATE IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE HEART OF THE BITTER COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSES IN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL LKLY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON RANGING FROM -16 OVER THE NW TO -7 SE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACRS THE NW AND STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SE. STRONG WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR THESE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. THERE WILL LKLY BE A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTN WHERE WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE ABOVE THE -25 WARNING CRITERIA AND ABOVE -10 OVER THE SOUTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BUT THESE READINGS WILL DROP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER BITTER COLD NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS IN 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WIND CHILL HEADLINES THRU THE DAY TUESDAY THRU WED MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE BUT STILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR LESS PRECIPITATION. BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN SHARPEN UP LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW IN THE NORTH BUT A MIX AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AS A STRONG COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT SOUTHERN TAF SITES CVG LUK AND ILN...WHILE NORTHERN SITES DAY CMH AND LCK WILL SEE SCT MID CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077-080. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077-080. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ078-079-081-082-088. KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073-074. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073-074. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
313 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBS...AND WEBCAMS SHOW A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM ERN MT THROUGH NERN WY INTO SWRN SD. THIS BAND WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET THAT WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE SWRN CWA OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE NOT GONE TOO LOW WITH MIN TEMPS THERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING LATE TNGT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. SOME OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE RAP MODEL INDICATE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER BLKHLS OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT WARRANTED GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES AS WELL AS PWAT NEAR 0.05 INCHES. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON TUESDAY AS SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ENSUES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NERN WY IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA WITH INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THAT AREA...ROUGHLY A 5-MB DIFFERENCE FROM KECS TO KSPF. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED...BUT MAY NEED TO DO SO EVEN MORE IN LATER SHIFTS. IT ALSO WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH PARTS OF THE NERN FOOTHILLS STAYING IN THE 20S MOST OF THE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014 ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FOR A BRIEF TIME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT THIS POINT...UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OVER NORTHEASTERN WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW....THOUGH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ALSO LOOK TO BE LIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BUNKERS LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT STILL IN THE RANGE OF 15 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN ENTERS CENTRAL MEXICO. FOR LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. DUE TO THE LOW POP OF 10 PERCENT...WILL NOT MENTION IT FOR KAUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOVE MENTIONED NEARS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...LOW POPS REMAIN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014/ AVIATION... VFR IS BEING FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO 35 KT BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ARCTIC FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF AUS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SAT BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. GUSTS TO OVER 30 KT WILL SOON FOLLOW THE FROPA. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT SO HAVE INCLUDED MAINLY CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF FORECAST. HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW SOME HIGHER RH VALUES AROUND 850MB LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME DECKS AT THIS LEVEL BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST HAS LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AROUND THE AUS AREA...BUT WITH POP SO LOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE AUS TAF AT THIS TIME. SAME REASONING GOES WITH SAT/SSF LATER ON TUE WITH LOW CHANCE POP FOR -FZRA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THREE HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6MB HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ONGOING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER... CAN/T RULE OUT GUSTY CONDITIONS WEST OF I-35 AS WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN NAM12 AND RUC13 TRENDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TONIGHT...BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND CALL FOR A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW. ANY SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO. THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO CUERO LINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AND SLEET REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY... WHILE A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS LOW...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON... BUT GIVEN A NARROW REGION OF ORGANIZED LIFT...WE/LL ALSO MENTION SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA COULD SEE STRONGER LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND BOOSTED QPF A LITTLE. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR TUESDAY EVENING. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND COASTAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCREASE... A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS STILL IN QUESTION AND WE/LL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 32 36 26 45 30 / 20 20 10 10 - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 30 36 22 43 25 / 20 20 10 10 - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 31 35 22 42 25 / 10 30 10 10 - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 27 36 22 44 29 / 20 20 10 10 - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 37 46 30 49 34 / 10 10 10 10 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 28 35 23 43 28 / 20 20 10 10 - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 33 39 24 48 27 / 10 20 20 10 - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 31 35 22 43 25 / 10 20 10 10 - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 32 34 26 42 31 / 10 40 10 10 - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 35 37 27 45 31 / 10 20 20 10 - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 35 38 27 45 30 / 10 20 20 10 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET... CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO... GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR... KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS... UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
538 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 .AVIATION... VFR IS BEING FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO 35 KT BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ARCTIC FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF AUS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SAT BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. GUSTS TO OVER 30 KT WILL SOON FOLLOW THE FROPA. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT SO HAVE INCLUDED MAINLY CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF FORECAST. HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW SOME HIGHER RH VALUES AROUND 850MB LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME DECKS AT THIS LEVEL BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST HAS LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AROUND THE AUS AREA...BUT WITH POP SO LOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE AUS TAF AT THIS TIME. SAME REASONING GOES WITH SAT/SSF LATER ON TUE WITH LOW CHANCE POP FOR -FZRA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THREE HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6MB HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ONGOING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER... CAN/T RULE OUT GUSTY CONDITIONS WEST OF I-35 AS WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN NAM12 AND RUC13 TRENDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TONIGHT...BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND CALL FOR A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW. ANY SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO. THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO CUERO LINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AND SLEET REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY... WHILE A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS LOW...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON... BUT GIVEN A NARROW REGION OF ORGANIZED LIFT...WE/LL ALSO MENTION SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA COULD SEE STRONGER LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND BOOSTED QPF A LITTLE. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR TUESDAY EVENING. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND COASTAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCREASE... A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS STILL IN QUESTION AND WE/LL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 32 36 26 45 / - 20 20 10 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 30 36 22 43 / - 20 20 10 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 31 35 22 42 / - 10 30 10 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 44 27 36 22 44 / - 20 20 10 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 55 37 46 30 49 / 0 10 10 10 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 28 35 23 43 / - 20 20 10 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 33 39 24 48 / 0 10 20 20 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 47 31 35 22 43 / - 10 20 10 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 32 34 26 42 / - 10 40 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 51 35 37 27 45 / - 10 20 20 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 38 27 45 / - 10 20 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET... CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO... GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR... KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS... UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
403 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THREE HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6MB HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ONGOING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER... CAN/T RULE OUT GUSTY CONDITIONS WEST OF I-35 AS WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN NAM12 AND RUC13 TRENDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TONIGHT...BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND CALL FOR A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW. ANY SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO. THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO CUERO LINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AND SLEET REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY... WHILE A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS LOW...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON... BUT GIVEN A NARROW REGION OF ORGANIZED LIFT...WE/LL ALSO MENTION SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA COULD SEE STRONGER LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND BOOSTED QPF A LITTLE. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR TUESDAY EVENING. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND COASTAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCREASE... A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS STILL IN QUESTION AND WE/LL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 32 36 26 45 / - 20 20 10 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 30 36 22 43 / - 20 20 10 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 31 35 22 42 / - 10 30 10 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 44 27 36 22 44 / - 20 20 10 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 55 37 46 30 49 / 0 10 10 10 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 28 35 23 43 / - 20 20 10 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 33 39 24 48 / 0 10 20 20 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 47 31 35 22 43 / - 10 20 10 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 32 34 26 42 / - 10 40 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 51 35 37 27 45 / - 10 20 20 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 38 27 45 / - 10 20 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET... CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO... GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR... KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS... UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
328 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS MORNING. THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO ALL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AHEAD OF THIS TRANSITION LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THIS SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST SPC WRF INDICATED SNOW ENDING IN THE WEST PART BETWEEN 400 AM AND 600 AM...AND THE EAST PART DURING THE 600 AM TO 900 AM TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW AND GETTING BELOW THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 200 AM TO 600 AM TIME FRAME...SO THE SNOW MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER AND POSSIBLY BECOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIPITATION-TYPE EVENT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM MCCORMICK TO SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA TO AIKEN TO COLUMBIA PLUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS FROM CAMDEN TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECASTED. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG AND ORANGEBURG...TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH. THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT- OVER SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE. SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES TONIGHT...WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROF LEVELS OUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 40 TO 45 WITH 50 TO 55 FRIDAY AND AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND IN THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER TX. LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST THRU THE LOWER MS VALLEY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN IFR/MVFR AS SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. OBSERVATIONS FROM SITES TO OUR WEST WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED SHOW VFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015- 018-020-021-025-026. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016- 022-027>031-035>038-041. GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040- 063>065. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ077. && $$ 02/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
113 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS MORNING. THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO ALL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AHEAD OF THIS TRANSITION LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THIS SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST SPC WRF INDICATED SNOW ENDING IN THE WEST PART BETWEEN 400 AM AND 600 AM...AND THE EAST PART DURING THE 600 AM TO 900 AM TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW AND GETTING BELOW THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 200 AM TO 600 AM TIME FRAME...SO THE SNOW MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER AND POSSIBLY BECOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIPITATION-TYPE EVENT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM MCCORMICK TO SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA TO AIKEN TO COLUMBIA PLUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS FROM CAMDEN TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECASTED. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG AND ORANGEBURG...TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH. THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT- OVER SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE. SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES TONIGHT...WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH READINGS BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GFS SHOWING INDICATING BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH. CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN IFR/MVFR AS SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. OBSERVATIONS FROM SITES TO OUR WEST WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED SHOW VFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015- 016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040- 063>065-077. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
318 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH A BROAD DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NAMERICA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE AROUND -25C...LES CONTINUES OFF MAINLY NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A W-WSW WIND FLOW WHERE VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF OPEN WATER. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE ICE-COVERED EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A NARROW PORTION JUST WEST OF THE KEWEENAW ALTHOUGH WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN FM NRN ONTARIO MAKING IT HARDER TO DISCERN ICE COVERAGE OVER WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KCMX HAS REPORTED OCCASIONAL VSBY OF 1/2SM OR LOWER...VSBY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW BASED ON WEBCAMS. THUS...DECIDED TO CANCEL LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY ON MORNING UPDATE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN UP TO NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AS NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WIND CHILLS AT KCMX ARE STILL SOLIDLY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY (-30F OR LOWER) WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25F HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS. AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE ADDING BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES...SO COUNTIES FROM BARAGA AND IRON WESTWARD WILL BE IN ADVISORIES THROUGH 16Z WED. PORTIONS OF WRN MQT COUNTY COULD REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT BUT MOST OF THE COUNTY SHOULD STAY ABV -25F SO DECIDED AGAINST HEADLINE THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE OR JUST ABV ADVISORY CRITERIA. COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT A BIG FALL IN TEMPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SW CWA NEAR THE WI BDR WHERE LOWS COULD APPROACH -12F IN A FEW SPOTS. RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FROM THE RECENT BELOW ZERO HIGHS...NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. OUR STREAK OF DAYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONTINUES...WITH TODAY BEING THE 54TH DAY IN A ROW. LOOKING AT LONG TERM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE DATA...NONE OF THE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND ONLY A RUN OR TWO NEAR DAY 15. THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WE WILL BE NEARING THE RECORD OF 72 DAYS (SET IN 1978-1979) WHEN WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z THURSDAY AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO JAMES BAY BY 18Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND DEPART THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT (WHICH AFFECTS MUCH OF THE U.P.) WILL BE A LITTLE MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY NEAR EACH OTHER THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING OVER THE WEST HALF...BUT IF THE INTENSITY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (MUCH OF THE FORCING/CLOUD IN THE DGZ). BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P. AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -16C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH ICE COVER BUILDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT THAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND LOW END DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE GFS IS STARTING TO COME AROUND TO IT. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE SLIGHT POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERLY WIND BELTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 VERY COLD AIR AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT KCMX...FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS...THROUGH WED MORNING. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VSBY BLO AIRFIELD MINIMUMS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER AT SAW OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BLO VFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 314 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. INITIAL GALES TO 40KTS WILL LINGER INTO MID MONRNING E...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS CENTRAL EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL DRIFT E...WHILE BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. A LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TRACKS W-E ACROSS ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A TROUGH ACROSS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT S-SW GALES TO 40KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE E HALF. ANOTHER HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SE FROM ALBERTA TO THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE KEEPING A WEAK RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THEN ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001>004-009-010-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001- 003. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1206 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH A BROAD DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NAMERICA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE AROUND -25C...LES CONTINUES OFF MAINLY NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A W-WSW WIND FLOW WHERE VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF OPEN WATER. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE ICE-COVERED EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A NARROW PORTION JUST WEST OF THE KEWEENAW ALTHOUGH WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN FM NRN ONTARIO MAKING IT HARDER TO DISCERN ICE COVERAGE OVER WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KCMX HAS REPORTED OCCASIONAL VSBY OF 1/2SM OR LOWER...VSBY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW BASED ON WEBCAMS. THUS...DECIDED TO CANCEL LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY ON MORNING UPDATE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN UP TO NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AS NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WIND CHILLS AT KCMX ARE STILL SOLIDLY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY (-30F OR LOWER) WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25F HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS. AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE ADDING BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES...SO COUNTIES FROM BARAGA AND IRON WESTWARD WILL BE IN ADVISORIES THROUGH 16Z WED. PORTIONS OF WRN MQT COUNTY COULD REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT BUT MOST OF THE COUNTY SHOULD STAY ABV -25F SO DECIDED AGAINST HEADLINE THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE OR JUST ABV ADVISORY CRITERIA. COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT A BIG FALL IN TEMPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SW CWA NEAR THE WI BDR WHERE LOWS COULD APPROACH -12F IN A FEW SPOTS. RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FROM THE RECENT BELOW ZERO HIGHS...NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. OUR STREAK OF DAYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONTINUES...WITH TODAY BEING THE 54TH DAY IN A ROW. LOOKING AT LONG TERM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE DATA...NONE OF THE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND ONLY A RUN OR TWO NEAR DAY 15. THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WE WILL BE NEARING THE RECORD OF 72 DAYS (SET IN 1978-1979) WHEN WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z THURSDAY AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO JAMES BAY BY 18Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND DEPART THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT (WHICH AFFECTS MUCH OF THE U.P.) WILL BE A LITTLE MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY NEAR EACH OTHER THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING OVER THE WEST HALF...BUT IF THE INTENSITY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (MUCH OF THE FORCING/CLOUD IN THE DGZ). BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P. AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -16C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH ICE COVER BUILDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT THAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND LOW END DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE GFS IS STARTING TO COME AROUND TO IT. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE SLIGHT POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERLY WIND BELTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 VERY COLD AIR AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT KCMX...FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS...THROUGH WED MORNING. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VSBY BLO AIRFIELD MINIMUMS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER AT SAW OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BLO VFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. EXPECT WSW GALES TO 40 KTS OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS AGAIN SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE E. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001>004-009-010-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001- 003. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-263- 264. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
220 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING... WHEN A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY... WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE UNCHANGED THIS EVENING. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND REGIONAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY VALUES BLOSSOMED AND INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING...AS A PAIR OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAKS (INCLUDING A MEASURED 175 KTS IN THE NORTHERN ONE OVER KBNA) BECOME INCREASINGLY PHASED FROM THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE WAS EARLIER CONCERN THAT SNOW TOTALS MAY BE TOO HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS...WHERE A 700-850 MB WARM NOSE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 3 DEGREES NOSED INTO THOSE AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN PRECIPITATION FELL PRIMARILY AS SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF COOLING OF THE WARM NOSE EVIDENT IN FORECAST THICKNESSES...BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND MOST RECENTLY ACTUAL OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THESE AREAS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM THERE...WITH CONTINUED ALL SNOW ELSEWHERE. WHILE THE NEW/00Z NAM HAS VERIFIED TOO HIGH BY ABOUT DOUBLE WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS...THE HRRR AND RUC HAVE VERIFIED MUCH BETTER AND INDICATE AN AVERAGE OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 1 AM AND 5 AM...YIELDING A TOTAL OF AN TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT EAST OF A WADESBORO TO RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF I- 95. THESE LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WOULD WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN SNOW RATIOS OF 8-15:1...LOWEST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED RELATIVE WARMTH IN THE H7-850 LAYER RESIDES. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WADESBORO TO RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS LINE - A LINE THAT NOT SURPRISINGLY COINCIDES WITH THE H85 TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS - MAY EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 1 OR 2 AM...WHERE A SATURATED LAYER DEPTH IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE NUCLEATION/MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. THIS ALREADY SHALLOW SATURATION WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...INCLUDING THE TRIAD. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT WILL BE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS...WHEN COMBINED WITH A 5-15 MPH WIND...WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. DURING OUR MULTIPLE SNOW MEASURING TRIPS OUTSIDE HERE ON NCSU CENTENNIAL CAMPUS...THE COMBINATION OF COLD...WIND...AND DAMPNESS HAS INDEED BEEN BONE- CHILLING. ALL OBSERVED SNOW REPORTS CAN BE FOUND IN BOTH THE LSR AND PNS PRODUCTS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENTLY UPDATED AS NEW REPORTS COME IN...THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... THE WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE ARA IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MID MORNING. A LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHEAR EASTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EAST AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY BUT VERY COLD CONDITIONS. SOME CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL YIELD TO A PERIOD OF HIGH OVERCAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER AND COLD AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SUBFREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FALL WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND LITTLE WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HINTED THAT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BACK INLAND ACROSS THE NC COAST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TOUGH AXIS. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS TOO MUCH BUT AM CONCERNED THAT SOME CIRRUS MAY INHIBIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES. CONTINUED COLD BUT NOT AS COLD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 16-24 RANGE WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. -BLAES && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A WELCOME WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL EDGE UP INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...AND A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MINS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING TO THE MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES OFFSHORE AND WE ENJOY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY 40 TO 45. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE = NEAR ZONAL AS THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SEASONABLY MILD HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST...AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER EXTENDED FORECAST...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. CONCURRENTLY... THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ALIGNING MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A COUPLE OF CLOUDY AND DAMP DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...NO ARCTIC AIR IS IN THE PIPELINE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE BOTH DAYS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY... INT/GSO IS SEEING VFR CONDITIONS AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AT RDU... CURRENT MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL HOLD ON UNTIL AROUND 11-12Z... WHEN PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING INCLUDING A TREND TO JUST HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. AT FAY/RWI... CURRENT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN SNOWFALL WILL HOLD EVEN LONGER... THROUGH 14- 16Z... WITH AVIATION CONDITIONS TRENDING TO PRIMARILY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFTER THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT THESE LOCATIONS AFTER 18Z... WITH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN FROM THE NNE THROUGH 12Z BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NNW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON... UNDER 10 KTS AT INT/GSO/RDU BUT AROUND 10-12 KTS AT RWI/FAY. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THU EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE REGION. A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS MAINLY AT FAY/RWI THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME BY MIDDAY FRI EVERYWHERE... THEN MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN FRI EVENING/NIGHT MAINLY AT FAY/RDU/RWI. IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO SUN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. -GIH && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR JANUARY 30TH GSO 4 DEGREES SET IN 1966 RDU 7 DEGREES SET IN 1977 FAY 8 DEGREES SET IN 1934 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ008>011- 025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007- 021>024-038-039-073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...HARTFIELD CLIMATE...ELLIS/TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
431 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS. WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN COOLER. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE REGION. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 115 AM EST WEDNESDAY... LAST BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW EAST OF KDAN AND KLYH THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THROUGH 29/09Z. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IS WORKING IN AND CEILINGS FOR MOST STATIONS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH SUNRISE. KBLF WILL MAINTAIN IFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS AS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS LOW CEILINGS AND THE OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRY THAT REDUCES VISIBILITY... HOWEVER THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ABATE BY SUNRISE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ONCE AREA AIRPORTS SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN...EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 29/06Z TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TOWARD 15 KT DURING THE DAY DUE TO DECENT PRESSURE RISES OVER THE AREA. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...NF/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
911 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY AS A STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER RETURNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 905 AM UPDATE...CORRECTED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. REPORTS SO FAR INDICATE WIDESPREAD 2-5 INCH TOTALS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS...AND ABOUT 1 INCH BACK TO I-95 CORRIDOR. BACK EDGE OF SNOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD COAST. MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS AFFECTING NANTUCKET BUT WAS NARROWING AS IT HEADS E. HRRR HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON RADAR TRENDS AND IS WEIGHED HEAVILY INTO FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON CAPE COD/NANTUCKET BEFORE SNOW ENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING WAS ALREADY WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL REACH COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS IN TEENS AND 20S ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING LESS COLD AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MAKE ROOM FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WHICH MEANS A FEW MORE CLOUDS. WE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT YIELDS NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND TEENS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY CLIMB TO AROUND -16C TO -17C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY - A STORM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...EXACT OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN - COLD AND DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK - ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK */ OVERVIEW... HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR ROUND WHICH INCIPIENT DISTURBANCES WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CONSIDERING NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NORTHERN STREAM POLAR WAVES REMAIN MOISTURE DEPRIVED BY THE MORE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME...WHEREAS SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC WAVES ARE ABLE TO USURP WARM-MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD THEREBY ENHANCING THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WEST. CONSEQUENTIAL INSIDE-RUNNER PATTERN OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULT IN INITIAL PRECIP-TYPE CHALLENGES AS WARMER AIR OVERRUNS LINGERING ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE...BUT SEEMINGLY AS COLDER AIR IS SCOURED OUT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER-WET WEATHER TRENDS...FOLLOWED BY THE REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REAR. */ MODEL PREFERENCE... MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INCONSISTENCIES...NEVERTHELESS TRENDS ARE WELL-ESTABLISHED AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED BLEND IS PREFERRED OUT THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT... THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE HELD UP FROM PROGRESSING FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE LOW CENTER SO FAR NORTH AND MODEST WAA / SOUTHERLY FLOW STIFLES THE SAG OF THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC IS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST. WITH BEST DYNAMICS / FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE /MORE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS/ HAVE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF OUTCOMES FORCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/ MAINLY THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE /FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME/. WILL PUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS N/W MA AND S NH CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. LIGHT ACCUMS IF ANY. BLUSTERY SOUTH WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WEST WINDS AND CAA. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... A PAIRING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WHICH DO NOT APPEAR TO PHASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE TWO SEEMINGLY INDICATES THAT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR WAVE RACES AHEAD CUTTING OFF FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE FLOW TO WHICH THE SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC WAVE WITHIN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET RETAINS. SUBSEQUENTLY...PER INDICATIONS...THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION ACROSS THE NE CONUS. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INCONSISTENCIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE LEND TO UNCERTAINTY. INITIAL CHALLENGES INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE INITIAL WARM-FRONT AND PRECIP-TYPE CONSIDERATIONS /COULD BE TOO DRY OR PERHAPS PRECIP WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT HEADLINES INITIALLY...NEVERTHELESS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE PREVAILED SUCH CONDITIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST/. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS PREFERRED AS BRANCHING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INVOKES A MODEST WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF REGION INTO THE NE CONUS /SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS GETTING TO THE SURFACE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE/...THIS LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. AGAIN...PRECIP- TYPES AN ISSUE. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND INVOCATION OF A COASTAL LOW IN PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE BETTER BAROCLINIC ZONE...SHOULD SEE AN END TO ACTIVITY BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. COLD-AIR DAMMING SETUP EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER INSIDE-RUNNER LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. MIDWEEK... A SECOND INSIDE-RUNNER LOW. LIKELY SOME INITIAL PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. WILL ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW AS THE GREATEST DISPARITY AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS MAINLY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF OUTCOMES. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1405Z UPDATE: IFR/LIFR GRADUALLY IMPROVES ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS SPREAD E. W WINDS GUST O AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY WHILE VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY. VFR CONTINUES. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LEFTOVER -SN ENDS BY LATE MORNING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR / IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH -SN. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH BLUSTERY S WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY W WINDS TO THE REAR. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DETERIORATING WITH PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES. BLUSTERY S/SW WINDS WITH POTENTIAL LLWS IMPACTS...ALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING OUT TO SEA. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN AREA OF SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITY TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN WATERS. AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THIS WIND WILL HELP BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS...LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BLUSTERY S WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR TURBULENT SEAS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINING BREEZY. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WATERS. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. STORM LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS WILL RENEW BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURNING. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>024. NH...NONE. RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...JWD MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
907 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY AS A STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER RETURNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 905 AM UPDATE... REPORTS SO FAR INDICATE WIDESPREAD 2-5 INCH TOTALS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS...AND ABOUT 1 INCH BACK TO I-95 CORRIDOR. BACK EDGE OF SNOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD COAST. MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS AFFECTING NANTUCKET BUT WAS NARROWING AS IT HEADS E. HRRR HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON RADAR TRENDS AND IS WEIGHED HEAVILY INTO FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON CAPE COD/NANTUCKET BEFORE SNOW ENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING WAS ALREADY WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL REACH COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS IN TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING LESS COLD AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MAKE ROOM FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WHICH MEANS A FEW MORE CLOUDS. WE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT YIELDS NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND TEENS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY CLIMB TO AROUND -16C TO -17C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY - A STORM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...EXACT OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN - COLD AND DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK - ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK */ OVERVIEW... HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR ROUND WHICH INCIPIENT DISTURBANCES WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CONSIDERING NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NORTHERN STREAM POLAR WAVES REMAIN MOISTURE DEPRIVED BY THE MORE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME...WHEREAS SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC WAVES ARE ABLE TO USURP WARM-MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD THEREBY ENHANCING THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WEST. CONSEQUENTIAL INSIDE-RUNNER PATTERN OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULT IN INITIAL PRECIP-TYPE CHALLENGES AS WARMER AIR OVERRUNS LINGERING ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE...BUT SEEMINGLY AS COLDER AIR IS SCOURED OUT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER-WET WEATHER TRENDS...FOLLOWED BY THE REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REAR. */ MODEL PREFERENCE... MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INCONSISTENCIES...NEVERTHELESS TRENDS ARE WELL-ESTABLISHED AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED BLEND IS PREFERRED OUT THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT... THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE HELD UP FROM PROGRESSING FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE LOW CENTER SO FAR NORTH AND MODEST WAA / SOUTHERLY FLOW STIFLES THE SAG OF THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC IS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST. WITH BEST DYNAMICS / FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE /MORE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS/ HAVE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF OUTCOMES FORCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/ MAINLY THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE /FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME/. WILL PUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS N/W MA AND S NH CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. LIGHT ACCUMS IF ANY. BLUSTERY SOUTH WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WEST WINDS AND CAA. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... A PAIRING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WHICH DO NOT APPEAR TO PHASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE TWO SEEMINGLY INDICATES THAT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR WAVE RACES AHEAD CUTTING OFF FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE FLOW TO WHICH THE SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC WAVE WITHIN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET RETAINS. SUBSEQUENTLY...PER INDICATIONS...THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION ACROSS THE NE CONUS. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INCONSISTENCIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE LEND TO UNCERTAINTY. INITIAL CHALLENGES INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE INITIAL WARM-FRONT AND PRECIP-TYPE CONSIDERATIONS /COULD BE TOO DRY OR PERHAPS PRECIP WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT HEADLINES INITIALLY...NEVERTHELESS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE PREVAILED SUCH CONDITIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST/. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS PREFERRED AS BRANCHING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INVOKES A MODEST WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF REGION INTO THE NE CONUS /SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS GETTING TO THE SURFACE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE/...THIS LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. AGAIN...PRECIP- TYPES AN ISSUE. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND INVOCATION OF A COASTAL LOW IN PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE BETTER BAROCLINIC ZONE...SHOULD SEE AN END TO ACTIVITY BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. COLD-AIR DAMMING SETUP EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER INSIDE-RUNNER LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. MIDWEEK... A SECOND INSIDE-RUNNER LOW. LIKELY SOME INITIAL PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. WILL ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW AS THE GREATEST DISPARITY AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS MAINLY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF OUTCOMES. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1405Z UPDATE: IFR/LIFR GRADUALLY IMPROVES ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS SPREAD E. W WINDS GUST O AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY WHILE VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY. VFR CONTINUES. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LEFTOVER -SN ENDS BY LATE MORNING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR / IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH -SN. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH BLUSTERY S WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY W WINDS TO THE REAR. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DETERIORATING WITH PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES. BLUSTERY S/SW WINDS WITH POTENTIAL LLWS IMPACTS...ALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING OUT TO SEA. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN AREA OF SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITY TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN WATERS. AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THIS WIND WILL HELP BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS...LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BLUSTERY S WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR TURBULENT SEAS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINING BREEZY. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WATERS. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. STORM LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS WILL RENEW BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURNING. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>024. NH...NONE. RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...JWD MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
540 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... 09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING...CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DEEP DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP PLUME OF SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH IS NOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF SEEMS TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SUNCOAST CURRENTLY...HOWEVER THE DROP IN DEWPOINTS IS LAGGING A BIG BEHIND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A MUCH COOLER...DAMP...CLOUDY...AND SHOWERY PATTERN DESCENDING ON THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS...A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S IS OCCURRING UP BY CHIEFLAND. A COLD AND STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DRAIN MORE COLDER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO THE PENINSULA TODAY...AND WITH THE SHOWERS FALLING...IT WILL BE QUITE A COOL DAY FOR FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF I-4. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... TODAY/TONIGHT...A RATHER MESSY PATTERN OF MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL... WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOUR OR SO (PERHAPS LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES). THIS TYPE OF PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PUT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL IN THE FORECAST...BUT DID THE BEST WE COULD TO ADD SOME DECISION MAKING VALUE. THE ISSUE WILL BE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS NOT A SINGLE SHORTWAVE ENTITY MOVING THROUGH...BUT RATHER A SERIES OF IMPULSES...SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS...THAT WILL BRING THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND BATCHES OF SHOWERS. SO...THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME IN ANY ONE AREA (ACTUALLY FAR FROM IT)...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A WETTING RAIN AT SOME POINT...AND HENCE THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. BACKED AWAY FROM THE TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY ACTUALLY. MOST OF THE RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...BOTH FROM NCEP AND LOCALLY RUN...SHOW THE BEST SHOWERS CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER THE NATURE COAST...WITH THE I-4 CORRIDOR BEING THE TRANSITION ZONES TO LESS SHOWER COVERAGE. USED THIS CONSENSUS AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NATURE COAST AND THEN TAPER RAIN CHANCES DOWN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS MAKES SINCE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE FIRST PASSING SHORTWAVE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...ALONG WITH THE BETTER POSITIONS UNDERNEATH THE RRQ OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER JET. LATER IN THE DAY...WOULD EXPECT BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SUNCOAST AND INLAND INTERIOR ZONES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE NOT MOVING MUCH TODAY. IN FACT...IF ANYTHING WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME DROP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RAINFALL WILL BE DESCENDING INTO A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE NORTH AND RESULT IN PERIODIC WET-BULB INFLUENCES. TONIGHT...MORE SHOWERS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING BY...AND EVEN CLOSER THAN THE ONE TODAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A BROAD SWATH OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE/SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SEEING THIS SETUP AS WELL...AS MOST OF THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE THE BEST RAIN COVERAGE AFTER DARK. HAVE ESSENTIALLY JUST GIVEN A WIDESPREAD 60-70% RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA. DO NOT LIKE TO "BROAD BRUSH" THE FORECAST THAT MUCH...BUT THE PATTERN ALMOST INSISTS UPON IT. SO...IT WILL BE A COOL...SHOWERY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S...WITH NEAR 50 DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND IN THE 30S UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY. AS WAS TALKED ABOUT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WET-BULB EFFECTS BRING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE UP TOWARD CHIEFLAND EVER SO CLOSE TO SOME FREEZING RAIN POCKETS. SPENT ANOTHER NIGHT SEARCHING OVER SOUNDING AFTER SOUNDING...AND IT SEEMS THAT FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL STILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHILE ANY PRECIP IS FALLING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ONE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ACTUALLY A DECENT PIECE OF ENERGY...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER DECENT SWATH OF SYNOPTIC FORCING PASSING OVER THE PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST...SO THE TREND WILL BE TO TAPER THE POPS OFF THROUGH THE DAY TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL STAY IN THE SHOWER ZONES WHERE THIS LIFT ENCOUNTERS STILL PLENTIFUL COLUMN MOISTURE. FINALLY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL PASS BY AND ALLOW LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO FINALLY MOVE OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-4 DURING THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN END RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A BIG WARMUP TAKES PLACE QUICKLY AFTER A COUPLE OF COOL FLORIDA DAY. MANY SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOME 10-15 OR MORE DEGREES BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE TALKING 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80 SOUTH UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS LOOK ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS FROM THE WESTERN TO THE CENTRAL CONUS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER FL AND CUBA FROM THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC RIDGES TO THE SE U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WAVY TROUGH LIKE FEATURE LIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS FL. FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES DOWN OVER CENTRAL FL AS A FRONT SAGS IN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...GENERALLY STAYING NORTH OF THE FL STATE LINE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...FROM 29/00Z...ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FL REGION. THE WAVY TROUGH BRINGS ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT AND SUN... MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS MOISTURE DEPARTS MON-TUE AND ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE HIGHS REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION... 29/06Z-30/06Z: EXPECT IFR TO LCL LIFR/IN A MIXTURE OF BR/FG WITH STRATUS/ AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND LATE NIGHT HOURS. BKN BANDS OF SHRA...ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL...WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY BUT LIMITED TO JUST VCSH. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHIFT THROUGH THE WEST AND NW TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY TONIGHT. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CLEAR THE FORECAST WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG ALONG THE SUNCOAST WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT TO ADVISORY LEVELS WITH BUILDING SEAS. THESE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A MUCH COOLER...DAMP...AND SHOWERY PATTERN FOR THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. MIXING HEIGHTS AND RESULTING LDSI VALUES WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY. FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS WILL END WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERABLE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER NO DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 58 44 58 51 / 60 70 60 20 FMY 69 52 68 59 / 60 60 60 30 GIF 62 44 58 52 / 60 70 60 20 SRQ 62 46 62 54 / 60 70 60 20 BKV 55 42 55 46 / 60 70 50 10 SPG 60 47 59 53 / 60 70 60 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-DESOTO-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
756 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING AN END TO THE WINTER STORM. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND...AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... IN-SITU ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEAST GA FINALLY DROPPED BELOW FREEZING JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TODAY WHILE CONTINUED PRECIP OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF WITH SOME SLEET MIXING IN. FARTHER NORTH WE HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW WITH A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN. THERE WAS A LULL IN THE PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT A SECONDARY BAND HAS SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE UP THE SC/GA COAST THIS MORNING. WITH DEEP-LAYERED DRYING ACROSS INTERIOR GA/SC AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS FAR INTERIOR ZONES...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM STATESBORO TO HAMPTON TO ST GEORGE. CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS...THE FINAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST. WE ARE SHOWING UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG OUR COAST. THE BRUNT OF ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS...AND EVEN MORE SO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS... ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE NEAR-TERM PROGS. EVEN THE RUC13 IS NOT INITIALIZING THE SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA BEING AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WE DO NOT SEE MUCH HOPE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...ONLY PARTIAL MELTING IS EXPECTED FOR EXISTING ACCUMULATIONS. TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. FARTHER INLAND WE EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER WINDS AND THUS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS INLAND AND CLOSE TO 30 AT THE COAST. THUS...ANY MELTED WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL RE-FREEZE MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING AT LEAST UNTIL THE CURRENT PRECIP TAPERS OFF. THERE IS A CHANCE WE WILL REPLACE THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SIGNIFICANT BLACK ICE ISSUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM ONE THAT HAS BEEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LATELY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE GULF...AND THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A 130 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET...WILL ASSIST IN TRIGGERING ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL EAST OF THE SE COAST. WHILE THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE...ITS FORMATION DOES PREVENT THE DEEPER DRIER AIR FROM PENETRATING TO OUR IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS FOUND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND ARCTIC HIGH. GIVEN THAT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD THERE BE ANY SHIFT WEST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE...THERE COULD BE A SMALL RISK FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OF BIGGER CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE MORNING WHERE THE STANDING MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER WILL CREATE A SITUATION WHERE BLACK ICE WILL BE COMMON ON UNTREATED SURFACES. OTHERWISE...THE AIR MASS DOES START DRYING OUT WELL INLAND UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SPRAWLING RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AND THAT ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION INLAND WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLY WARMER DAY...BUT STILL FAR BELOW TYPICAL LATE JANUARY NORMS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SHOVE THE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER EAST...WHICH IN TURN FORCES THE DRIER AIR TO PUSH FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS INLAND FROM US-17. RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE AIR MASS...AND THAT ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND RISING HEIGHTS WITH A ZONAL FLOW UPSTAIRS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE AREA WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC...WHOSE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL STRETCH WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES. THIS POSITION OF THE HIGH ALLOWS FOR A COASTAL TROUGH TO FORM OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM...STUCK FROM SHIFTING WEST BY THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. THE ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE RISE IN TEMPS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS OUR REASONING FOR SHOWING SMALL POPS ON SATURDAY...THANKFULLY IN LIQUID FORM. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A DE-AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ALOFT...WITH A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS...WHILE A SPLIT FLOW FORMS OUT WEST. WE/LL BE SITUATED WITHIN A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY THE COASTAL TROUGH FALLS APART AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. A SOUTH AND SW FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED INCREASED IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONGER WIND FIELDS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS. WARM ADVECTION IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AND WE/LL ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS REACHING 70 IN SOME PLACES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST...ALBEIT A LOW END ONE...WILL BE THE RISK FOR SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND EVENTUALLY MORE HUMID AIR OVER-RIDES THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TIMING IS SLOWER THAN WE SAW THIS TIME YESTERDAY ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW HAVING DELAYED IT ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT KSAV AND KCHS THIS MORNING...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF. CEILINGS WILL TEETER NEAR THE MVFR/IFR RANGE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE VFR WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND...OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. && .MARINE... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE BETWEEN A STALLED FRONT A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SE COAST AND AN ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE EAST AND SE STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED WITH AS MUCH AS A 2-3 MB SPREAD FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THAT ALONG WITH BOUTS OF COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THE 0-20 NM WATERS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT COULD FALL JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY. ON AVERAGE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH 20-25 KT AND GUSTY BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT AND 8-9 FT NEAR 60 NM OUT TODAY...BEFORE DROPPING AROUND A FOOT OR TWO TONIGHT/THURSDAY. AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL 0-20 NM LEGS WILL COME DOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR LESS THAN 15-20 KT KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT A MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE VASTLY IMPROVED DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE LOCAL WATERS GENERALLY INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM OVER OR NEARBY...AND WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM VEERING TOO QUICKLY. BUT ONCE WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY...THERE IS A LOW END RISK FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT. MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...BUT TIMING OF THE ACTUAL PASSAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION THIS FAR IN ADVANCE WITH BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF IT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WE FELL JUST SHY OF THE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE...PEAKING AROUND 6.85 FT MLLW. TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES...SUGGESTING THAT SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MAY STILL YET OCCUR WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 29TH... KCHS...41 SET IN 2000. KCHL...36 SET IN 1897. KSAV...33 SET IN 1897. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ087- 088-099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ040- 042>045-047>052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352- 354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JRL SHORT TERM...33/RJB LONG TERM...33 AVIATION...33 MARINE...33 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
915 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... LAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE COASTLINE AS OF THE MID MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE MAINLAND AS OF 14Z. THIS PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 27 BELOW LAST NIGHT AT PITTSTON FARM. PREV DISC... UPDATED TO INCREASE CHC OF PRCP CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH NOW PUTS PSM INTO A SLGT CHC. A FEW FLURRIES FELL EARLIER AND CIG HAS LOWERED DUE TO PRCP FROM OCEAN LOW AND FNT TO THE SE. THE LOW AND FNT ARE STILL WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACT SHOULD STAY OFF THE COAST. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NE BRINGING THE FNT OUT TO SEA WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONT TO HIGH AND SOME MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS TO THE N AND W...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN SYSTEM. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRCP FROM THE OCEAN SYSTEM SINCE IT IS SO FAR AWAY AND AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. ANY PRCP SHOWING UP ON RADAR WILL REMAIN ALOFT OVER OUR COASTAL AND ADJACENT INTERIOR ZONES. SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE SW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 FOR NRN AREAS AND LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. LGT WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG...THOUGH IT WILL CREATE A BIT OF A WIND CHILL IT WON`T BE ANY WHERE NEAR CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TNGT THEN SLIDES OFF SHORE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME MOSTLY LGT AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLR THOUGH PARTIAL CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. A FEW COLDER SPORTS UP NORTH COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS IN THE SOUTH DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST WE GET A RETURN FLOW OF S SW WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WARMING SW FLOW ALOFT TO GIVE US MILDER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND IN THE 20S SOUTH. SOME COASTAL TOWNS MAY APPROACH 30 DEGREES. THE WX SHOULD STAY DRY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SERIES OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. THE COLD WILL EASE BUT WE`LL ALSO TURN WETTER AND STORMIER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TODAY AND TNGT THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. PASSING OCEAN LOW AND FNT TODAY WILL NOT IMPACT THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT IT HAS PRODUCED MVFR CIG AT PSM WHICH WILL CONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN IMPROVE. LONG TERM... FRI...SCT MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. SAT PM - SUN AM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. ISSUED AN SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATER TNGT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TNGT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATER ENHANCES WIND GUSTS. WINDS DROP OFF LATE TNGT AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL PICK UP TODAY THEN DROP OFF LATE TNGT...MORE SO OVER THE OPEN WATERS THAN OVER THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY... THOUGH THE RETURN FLOW OF S SW WINDS PICKS UP LATER IN THE DAY AND MAY CREATE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. WILL FCST LGT FREEZING SPRAY TODAY AND TNGT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZING SPRAY ADV. LONG TERM... FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SAT PM - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
536 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .UPDATE... 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SLIGHTLY EXTENDED SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SNOW MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE ROBUST. OUR PRIMARY SUSPECT IN THIS CASE CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H4-H3 PV ANALYSIS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE WASH/BC BORDER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME IN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT SURROUNDING AROUND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. AS FOR THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...MODELS SIMILAR WITH SHOWING THE WASH/BC PV FEATURE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THURSDAY MORNING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK HEADING FOR IOWA...SO WE WILL BE ADDING LEFT EXIT DYNAMICS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING. AT THE SFC...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ALBERTA WILL HAVE FOUND ITS WAY INTO NRN IOWA AND UP INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. OF MICH BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER FORCING CATCHES UP WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY...WE SEE A GOOD AREA OF LIFT BLOSSOM ALONG THE 295K THETA AS WARM AIR GETS PULLED UP AND OVER THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THE 295K SFC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT THE BEST FORCING IS CENTERED DOWN ALONG THE IA BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 15Z. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE PV FEATURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS. TO NO SURPRISE... SRN MN...BETWEEN ABOUT ST. PETER AND THE IA BORDER IS WHERE ALL MODELS SHOW THE MOST QPF FALLING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF QPF FALLING DOWN THERE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL SREF MEMBERS SHOW OVER A HALF INCH OF QPF FALLING IN THIS AREA AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWS /6 INCHES/ DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE 29.03 SREF IS UP OVER 60 PERCENT DOWN BETWEEN ST. PETER AND IA. WHAT WAS DONE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO BOOST POPS EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND USED A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR QPF. THIS RESULTED AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW DOWN IN SRN MN...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES UP IN THE METRO THAT WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING RUSH ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CERTAINLY SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH HERE WILL NOT CAUSE AS MANY PROBLEMS AS THE 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EVENING RUSH IN ATLANTA DID YESTERDAY. WE DID HAVE SOME HEALTHY DISCUSSION THIS MORNING WITH DMX AND ARX ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVY FOR THIS EVENT FOR A FEW REASONS. NUMBER ONE...TIMING WISE THIS WILL IMPACT MORNING DRIVES INTO WORK/SCHOOL. IN ADDITION...IF WE DO END UP SEEING SNOWFALL TOTALS UP CLOSER TO THE 5 INCH MARK...THEN THAT MEANS WE WOULD BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES UP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR. FINALLY...ON THE BACK END OF THE SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MEANING THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONCERNS AS WELL. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH AS TO JUST HOW MUCH QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW THIS WILL PRODUCE...AS A RESULT WE DECIDED THAT THERE WAS ENOUGH TIME WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET ONE MORE LOOK AT MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 PAST THURSDAY/S SYSTEM...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHGS SOME. THE MAIN CHG IS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH A MORE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FOR MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS ANOTHER CHG RELATED TO THE UPPER JET WHICH HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN JET COMPARED TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION QUIET. ALTHOUGH TWO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK...THIS IS MAINLY REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. AS PER THE STRONGER SOUTHERN JET TAKING PLACE THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOKING AT NORMALIZED ANOMALY EXTREMES OFF THE GEFS FOR 92/85/70H TEMPS...NO BIG COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED WITH ONLY THE TEMPORARY TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BLW ZERO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ABV ZERO. THIS IS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEKS. IF YOU COMPARE THESE EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY WHERE TEMPS FELL TO -23 AT MSP...THESE EXTREME VALUES WERE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. NEXT WEEK THESE EXTREME VALUES ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE SPENT WITH VFR CONDS AND INCREASING SW WINDS AS THE REGION SITS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND ACROSS MN AND INTO WI OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER...SNOW WILL START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. FOR THE SNOW...USED TIMING FROM THE SREF/NAM TO BRING SNOW IN TO TERMINALS. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO IF DRY AIR CAN BE OVERCOME AT AXN AND STC FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUGH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REST OF TERMINALS SEEING SNOW. THIS WILL BE A QUICK HITTER...THOUGH HEAVY BURST OF SNOW. SNOW DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST MUCH MORE THAN 6 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR FOR ABOUT 3 OF THOSE HOURS. KMSP...SNOW COMING IN THU MORNING LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. ONCE IT DOES MOVE IN...SHOULD WASTE NO TIME IN GETTING IFR VSBYS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR MSP...MOST OF THIS TIMED PERFECTLY WITH THE MORNING PUSH WITH RATES IN THE 3/4 INCH PER HOUR RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. FROPA WILL COME IN THE 8-10Z PERIOD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY TURNING TO THE NW IN ITS WAKE. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...BCMG VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS. FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5KTS EARLY BCMG NW AT 10G15KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045- 047>053-055>063-065>070-075>078-083>085-093. WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016- 023>028. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SLIGHTLY EXTENDED SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SNOW MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE ROBUST. OUR PRIMARY SUSPECT IN THIS CASE CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H4-H3 PV ANALYSIS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE WASH/BC BORDER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME IN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT SURROUNDING AROUND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. AS FOR THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...MODELS SIMILAR WITH SHOWING THE WASH/BC PV FEATURE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THURSDAY MORNING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK HEADING FOR IOWA...SO WE WILL BE ADDING LEFT EXIT DYNAMICS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING. AT THE SFC...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ALBERTA WILL HAVE FOUND ITS WAY INTO NRN IOWA AND UP INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. OF MICH BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER FORCING CATCHES UP WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY...WE SEE A GOOD AREA OF LIFT BLOSSOM ALONG THE 295K THETA AS WARM AIR GETS PULLED UP AND OVER THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THE 295K SFC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT THE BEST FORCING IS CENTERED DOWN ALONG THE IA BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 15Z. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE PV FEATURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS. TO NO SURPRISE... SRN MN...BETWEEN ABOUT ST. PETER AND THE IA BORDER IS WHERE ALL MODELS SHOW THE MOST QPF FALLING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF QPF FALLING DOWN THERE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL SREF MEMBERS SHOW OVER A HALF INCH OF QPF FALLING IN THIS AREA AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWS /6 INCHES/ DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE 29.03 SREF IS UP OVER 60 PERCENT DOWN BETWEEN ST. PETER AND IA. WHAT WAS DONE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO BOOST POPS EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND USED A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR QPF. THIS RESULTED AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW DOWN IN SRN MN...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES UP IN THE METRO THAT WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING RUSH ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CERTAINLY SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH HERE WILL NOT CAUSE AS MANY PROBLEMS AS THE 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EVENING RUSH IN ATLANTA DID YESTERDAY. WE DID HAVE SOME HEALTHY DISCUSSION THIS MORNING WITH DMX AND ARX ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVY FOR THIS EVENT FOR A FEW REASONS. NUMBER ONE...TIMING WISE THIS WILL IMPACT MORNING DRIVES INTO WORK/SCHOOL. IN ADDITION...IF WE DO END UP SEEING SNOWFALL TOTALS UP CLOSER TO THE 5 INCH MARK...THEN THAT MEANS WE WOULD BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES UP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR. FINALLY...ON THE BACK END OF THE SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MEANING THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONCERNS AS WELL. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH AS TO JUST HOW MUCH QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW THIS WILL PRODUCE...AS A RESULT WE DECIDED THAT THERE WAS ENOUGH TIME WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET ONE MORE LOOK AT MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 PAST THURSDAY/S SYSTEM...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHGS SOME. THE MAIN CHG IS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH A MORE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FOR MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS ANOTHER CHG RELATED TO THE UPPER JET WHICH HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN JET COMPARED TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION QUIET. ALTHOUGH TWO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK...THIS IS MAINLY REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. AS PER THE STRONGER SOUTHERN JET TAKING PLACE THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOKING AT NORMALIZED ANOMALY EXTREMES OFF THE GEFS FOR 92/85/70H TEMPS...NO BIG COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED WITH ONLY THE TEMPORARY TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BLW ZERO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ABV ZERO. THIS IS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEKS. IF YOU COMPARE THESE EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY WHERE TEMPS FELL TO -23 AT MSP...THESE EXTREME VALUES WERE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. NEXT WEEK THESE EXTREME VALUES ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014 CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL FILL WITH HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SNOW PUSHING INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AND GUST TO 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KMSP...LITTLE CONCERNS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF WHEN SNOW BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR/-SN WITH IFR/LIFR AND SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS. FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS W BECOMING NW AT 10G15KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045- 047>053-055>063-065>070-075>078-083>085-093. WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016- 023>028. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NO ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT A MOSAIC OF 88D RADARS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...PCPN COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOME SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN ACTIVITY LIES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD TO AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THE 0 TO 6KM LAYER MAX WET-BULB TEMP FROM THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST IDEA WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE FOR ALL SNOW AND THE WINTRY MIX RESIDES WITH SFC OBS FROM ACROSS THE FA CONFIRMING. GOING WITH THIS IDEA...LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT WX TYPE FOR THE ILM CWA BY DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME SNOW BANDING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AT THE MOMENT. THE QUESTION NOW RESIDES IS WHETHER THE REMAINING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER UP A SNOW-BURST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA BEFORE IT ALL FINALLY COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS LIKE WILL COVER IT. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...UP TO 4 INCHES...REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND DO NOT SEE MUCH MELTING TO OCCUR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ROADWAYS THAT ARE TREATED BY YOUR LOCAL AND STATE DOT. BUT EVEN THESE TREATED AREAS MAY FREEZE BACK UP TONIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT WINTER STORM THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE OF THE NORM...MOST WANT TO KNOW ABOUT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE SHORT ANSWER FOR MOST PLACES IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MID TO UPPER 30S THE MELTING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE WELL OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FLUNG TOWARDS THE COAST YIELDING A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND THEY MAY HAVE SOME DIURNAL VARIATION IN PTYPE...BUT WITH SUCH DRY MID LEVELS THEY SHOULD ALSO BE TRACE AMOUNTS IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE SNOWPACK/SLEET SHEET COMFORTABLY IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD KEEP NC COASTAL COUNTIES FROM GROWING AS COLD AS OTHER REGIONS...STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. IT SEEMS MORE LIKE FRIDAY THAT WE HAVE TO LOOK TO FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT...IF NOT TOTAL MELTING OF THE SNOW AND ICE AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM UP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50. MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH SOLAR INSOLATION GOING TO MELTING FOR PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF HIGH OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A WARMUP. MID LEVEL RIDGE ALSO OFFSHORE GIVING A WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE OTHERWISE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND THIS COULD YIELD SOME DEEPER MOISTURE FLUX BUT STILL FEEL SATURDAY REMAINS DRY IN THE ABSENCE OF LIFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND PROBABLY ONLY SLOWLY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AT A VERY GRADUAL PACE. NO ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND SO TEMPERATURES MERELY GET KNOCKED DOWN FROM THE WEEKEND WARMTH BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...AS WINTRY PRECIP TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WINTRY PRECIP...MAINLY -SN/-PL...WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...WITH -SNPL CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT KFLO...AND -SN AT KILM/KCRE. GIVEN LIGHT INTENSITY DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ATTM...BUT COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PATCH. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF LOW CIGS WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS...NORTH WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL INLAND...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY. WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATE TODAY. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS BREACHING GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED ACROSS THE ILM WATERS TODAY...THEN RELAX ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO DROP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH MAINLY A NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...SIGNIFICANT SEA GROWTH IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DUE TO THE LIMITED FETCH FROM THIS OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION. THE SEAS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING ROUGHLY IN THE 4 TO 8 FOOT RANGE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO WHERE SCEC HEADLINES ARE NEEDED DUE TO 5 FT SEAS ON THURSDAY. THE WATERS WILL FIND THEMSELVES BETWEEN STRONG AREA OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A WAVE MOVING UP ARCTIC BOUNDARY A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE. THE OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE WAVE SHADOWING HOWEVER AND THE 5 FT SEAS MAY NOT TAKE UP ENOUGH OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO WARRANT THE HEADLINES...USUALLY RESERVED FOR A 4 TO 5 FT FCST. THE WAVE SHADOWING IN OTHER WORDS WILL FAVOR 3 TO 5 FT. THE EXIT OF THE WAVE AND THE INCREASED PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH BY FRIDAY WILL DECREASE AND BACK THE WINDS AND ALLOW SEAS TO EASE MAINLY IN THE PREVIOUSLY STIRRED UP OUTER REACHES OF THE 20 NM FCST ZONES. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE ARCTIC HIGH APPEARS TO WASH OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE MAIN CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WELL EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS THE WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY BUT VERY SLOWLY AND THE DAYTIME CHANGE IN WIND/SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL. BOTH SHOULD RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017- 023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087- 096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
516 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NO ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT A MOSAIC OF 88D RADARS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...PCPN COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOME SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN ACTIVITY LIES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD TO AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THE 0 TO 6KM LAYER MAX WET-BULB TEMP FROM THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST IDEA WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE FOR ALL SNOW AND THE WINTRY MIX RESIDES WITH SFC OBS FROM ACROSS THE FA CONFIRMING. GOING WITH THIS IDEA...LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT WX TYPE FOR THE ILM CWA BY DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME SNOW BANDING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AT THE MOMENT. THE QUESTION NOW RESIDES IS WHETHER THE REMAINING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER UP A SNOW-BURST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA BEFORE IT ALL FINALLY COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS LIKE WILL COVER IT. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...UP TO 4 INCHES...REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND DO NOT SEE MUCH MELTING TO OCCUR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ROADWAYS THAT ARE TREATED BY YOUR LOCAL AND STATE DOT. BUT EVEN THESE TREATED AREAS MAY FREEZE BACK UP TONIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT WINTER STORM THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE OF THE NORM...MOST WANT TO KNOW ABOUT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE SHORT ANSWER FOR MOST PLACES IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MID TO UPPER 30S THE MELTING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE WELL OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FLUNG TOWARDS THE COAST YIELDING A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND THEY MAY HAVE SOME DIURNAL VARIATION IN PTYPE...BUT WITH SUCH DRY MID LEVELS THEY SHOULD ALSO BE TRACE AMOUNTS IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE SNOWPACK/SLEET SHEET COMFORTABLY IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD KEEP NC COASTAL COUNTIES FROM GROWING AS COLD AS OTHER REGIONS...STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. IT SEEMS MORE LIKE FRIDAY THAT WE HAVE TO LOOK TO FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT...IF NOT TOTAL MELTING OF THE SNOW AND ICE AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM UP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50. MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH SOLAR INSOLATION GOING TO MELTING FOR PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF HIGH OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A WARMUP. MID LEVEL RIDGE ALSO OFFSHORE GIVING A WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE OTHERWISE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND THIS COULD YIELD SOME DEEPER MOISTURE FLUX BUT STILL FEEL SATURDAY REMAINS DRY IN THE ABSENCE OF LIFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND PROBABLY ONLY SLOWLY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AT A VERY GRADUAL PACE. NO ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND SO TEMPERATURES MERELY GET KNOCKED DOWN FROM THE WEEKEND WARMTH BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...RADAR...SURFACE OBS AND PUBLIC REPORTS INDICATE SNOW IS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AT KLBT/KFLO...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT -SN TO CONTINUE AT KLBT AND KFLO THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER AREAS OF SNOW. SLEET WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A BRIEF SLEET/SNOW MIX AT KILM...KCRE AND KMYR BY 12Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS IN MODERATE SLEET/SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ALONG THE COAST BY 15Z OR SO. NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT. VFR WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES BY 00Z THURSDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY. WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATE TODAY. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS BREACHING GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED ACROSS THE ILM WATERS TODAY...THEN RELAX ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO DROP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH MAINLY A NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...SIGNIFICANT SEA GROWTH IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DUE TO THE LIMITED FETCH FROM THIS OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION. THE SEAS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING ROUGHLY IN THE 4 TO 8 FOOT RANGE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO WHERE SCEC HEADLINES ARE NEEDED DUE TO 5 FT SEAS ON THURSDAY. THE WATERS WILL FIND THEMSELVES BETWEEN STRONG AREA OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A WAVE MOVING UP ARCTIC BOUNDARY A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE. THE OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE WAVE SHADOWING HOWEVER AND THE 5 FT SEAS MAY NOT TAKE UP ENOUGH OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO WARRANT THE HEADLINES...USUALLY RESERVED FOR A 4 TO 5 FT FCST. THE WAVE SHADOWING IN OTHER WORDS WILL FAVOR 3 TO 5 FT. THE EXIT OF THE WAVE AND THE INCREASED PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH BY FRIDAY WILL DECREASE AND BACK THE WINDS AND ALLOW SEAS TO EASE MAINLY IN THE PREVIOUSLY STIRRED UP OUTER REACHES OF THE 20 NM FCST ZONES. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE ARCTIC HIGH APPEARS TO WASH OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE MAIN CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WELL EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS THE WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY BUT VERY SLOWLY AND THE DAYTIME CHANGE IN WIND/SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL. BOTH SHOULD RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017- 023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087- 096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
957 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 957 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 14 UTC RAP STILL SHOWING 925 HPA SOUTHWEST WIND FROM 45 TO 50 KTS CUTTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18 UTC AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY LATEST WSR-88D VAD PROFILE WHICH SHOWS 50 KTS AT 2000 FT AGL. LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...HOWEVER...IS TOO STRONG SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS TO REFLECT MUCH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 900 HPA THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING WINDS DROP TO AROUND 25 KTS...SO HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND TODAY TO BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF EASTERN ND. DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES/WIND/SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 A FEW AREAS REMAIN IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 12Z...BUT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AND ALLOWED ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL NOT SURE HOW DEEP WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAP HAS INCREASED 950MB-925MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA (INDICATING 925MB WINDS 45-50 KNOTS). SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 WIND CHILLS STILL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...BUT STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXPIRATION OF 12Z. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL PLACE THE REGION IN A WARMER AIRMASS TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE MINOR CONCERNS WITH WIND SPEED. FIRST...IN THE WARM SECTOR...MODELS INDICATE THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 925MB WINDS WILL BE 40-50 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS (SUCH AS EAST OF THE VALLEY) MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. WILL MONITOR...BUT EVEN IF SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST...ADDITIONAL HAZARDS WOULD BE MINOR. SECOND...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS INDICATE BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT 925MB WINDS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS. WITH EACH SCENARIO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW (ALTHOUGH DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE). REGION IS BACK IN A COLDER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL AGAIN BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THAT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ESCORT A SERIES OF DRY FROPAS FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SHOTS OF CANADIAN AIRMASSES. AS A RESULT A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STORM TRACK AND ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND WIND SHIFT TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ROGERS SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/JK AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 A FEW AREAS REMAIN IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 12Z...BUT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AND ALLOWED ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL NOT SURE HOW DEEP WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAP HAS INCREASED 950MB-925MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA (INDICATING 925MB WINDS 45-50 KNOTS). SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 WIND CHILLS STILL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...BUT STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXPIRATION OF 12Z. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL PLACE THE REGION IN A WARMER AIRMASS TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE MINOR CONCERNS WITH WIND SPEED. FIRST...IN THE WARM SECTOR...MODELS INDICATE THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 925MB WINDS WILL BE 40-50 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS (SUCH AS EAST OF THE VALLEY) MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. WILL MONITOR...BUT EVEN IF SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST...ADDITIONAL HAZARDS WOULD BE MINOR. SECOND...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS INDICATE BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT 925MB WINDS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS. WITH EACH SCENARIO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW (ALTHOUGH DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE). REGION IS BACK IN A COLDER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL AGAIN BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THAT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ESCORT A SERIES OF DRY FROPAS FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SHOTS OF CANADIAN AIRMASSES. AS A RESULT A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STORM TRACK AND ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND WIND SHIFT TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/JK AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1105 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY ADJUSTED GRIDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS LOWERING TEMPS A FEW NOTCHES WHILE ALSO RELAXING WINDS SLIGHTLY. NOT MUCH EFFECT ON WIND CHILL INDEX SO ADVISORY STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS. WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN COOLER. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE REGION. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY... RADAR INDICATES THAT ORGANIZED SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS. EVEN THESE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL...AND SHOULD SEE SKC CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. KBLF WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND PINS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY AROUND 15Z. MAY EXPERIENCE THE OCCASIONAL 15KT GUST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH VFR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN A SOUTHERLY SHIFT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .CLIMATE... THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE REGION EXPERIENCES SOME RELIEF. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 30TH... TEMP YEAR ROANOKE31966 LYNCHBURG41934 DANVILLE81966 BLACKSBURG-101966 BLUEFIELD-111966 LEWISBURG 7 2004 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/PC SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...NF/PM CLIMATE...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1005 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY ADJUSTED GRIDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS LOWERING TEMPS A FEW NOTCHES WHILE ALSO RELAXING WINDS SLIGHTLY. NOT MUCH EFFECT ON WIND CHILL INDEX SO ADVISORY STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS. WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN COOLER. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE REGION. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY... RADAR INDICATES THAT ORGANIZED SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS. EVEN THESE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL...AND SHOULD SEE SKC CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. KBLF WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND PINS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY AROUND 15Z. MAY EXPERIENCE THE OCCASIONAL 15KT GUST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH VFR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN A SOUTHERLY SHIFT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/PC SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...NF/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
603 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS. WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN COOLER. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE REGION. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY... RADAR INDICATES THAT ORGANIZED SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS. EVEN THESE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL...AND SHOULD SEE SKC CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. KBLF WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND PINS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY AROUND 15Z. MAY EXPERIENCE THE OCCASIONAL 15KT GUST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH VFR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN A SOUTHERLY SHIFT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...NF/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
514 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N ON FRIDAY...AND STALLS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...IT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 515PM UPDATE... HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POP FORECAST. VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WESTERLY WINDS CAUSE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS IN COORDINATION WITH A PASSING TROUGH. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LOWS TO BE BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE COASTLINE. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL APPROACH 20 BELOW IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ISOLATED...SO WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY... ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH MILDER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP UP TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE OVERALL +PNA PATTERN AT 500 MB CONTINUES...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE MEAN TROUGHINESS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS EVERY DAY OR TWO...BUT NO BIG STORMS IN SIGHT. THE RIDGING REACHING POLEWARD ACROSS ALASKA WILL CUT OFF THE COLDEST HEMISPHERIC AIR...HOLDING OVER SIBERIA INTO NEXT WEEK. SO...IT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE TRENDING TO A PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WE GET INTO SOME STAGNANT FLOW AT LOW LEVELS... AND THE MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WELL LINED UP. A WEAKENING 500 MB WAVE TRACKS JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE... WHERE IT LOOKS TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY... WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS... MAINLY IN THE NORTH. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY... WHICH IS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION... WHICH WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW... EXCEPT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WITH SOME COOLER AIR IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR ON FRIDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON... PERSISTING THRU MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WITH GRADIENT INCREASING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...WILL LEAVE SCAS UP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM...SCA WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH ON FRIDAY... WITH FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF WINTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
303 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N ON FRIDAY...AND STALLS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...IT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LOWS TO BE BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE COASTLINE. WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL APPROACH 20 BELOW IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ISOLATED...SO WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. IT WILL FEEL MUCH MILDER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP UP TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE OVERALL +PNA PATTERN AT 500 MB CONTINUES...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE MEAN TROUGHINESS IN PLACE OVER ERN NOAM...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS EVERY DAY OR TWO...BUT NO BIG STORMS IN SIGHT. THE RIDGING REACHING POLEWARD ACROSS ALASKA WILL CUT OFF THE COLDEST HEMISPHERIC AIR...HOLDING OVER SIBERIA INTO NEXT WEEK. SO...IT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE TRENDING TO A PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WE GET INTO SOME STAGNANT FLOW AT LOW LVLS...AND THE MID-HIGH LVL FLOW BECOMES WELL LINED UP. A WEAKENING 500 MB WAVE TRACKS JUST TO OUR N LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SF COLD FRONT S INTO NRN ME...WHERE IT LOOKS TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY....WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHSN...MAINLY IN THE N. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK EWD ALONG THE FRONT LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH IS THE BETTER CHC FOR PRECIP...WHICH WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...EXCEPT SOME RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME COOLER AIR IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS SFC TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE S. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR ON FRI...THEN POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER IN SN SAT NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SUN AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THRU MON. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WITH GRADIENT INCREASING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...WILL LEAVE SCAS UP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM...SCA WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH ON FRI...WITH FAIRLY QUIET CONDS FOR THE MIDDLE OF WINTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1217 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... LAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ARE NOW OFF THE COASTLINE. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING FOR FULL SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE MAINLAND AS OF 14Z. THIS PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 27 BELOW LAST NIGHT AT PITTSTON FARM. PREV DISC... UPDATED TO INCREASE CHC OF PRCP CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH NOW PUTS PSM INTO A SLGT CHC. A FEW FLURRIES FELL EARLIER AND CIG HAS LOWERED DUE TO PRCP FROM OCEAN LOW AND FNT TO THE SE. THE LOW AND FNT ARE STILL WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACT SHOULD STAY OFF THE COAST. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NE BRINGING THE FNT OUT TO SEA WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONT TO HIGH AND SOME MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS TO THE N AND W...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN SYSTEM. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRCP FROM THE OCEAN SYSTEM SINCE IT IS SO FAR AWAY AND AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. ANY PRCP SHOWING UP ON RADAR WILL REMAIN ALOFT OVER OUR COASTAL AND ADJACENT INTERIOR ZONES. SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE SW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 FOR NRN AREAS AND LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. LGT WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG...THOUGH IT WILL CREATE A BIT OF A WIND CHILL IT WON`T BE ANY WHERE NEAR CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TNGT THEN SLIDES OFF SHORE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME MOSTLY LGT AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLR THOUGH PARTIAL CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. A FEW COLDER SPORTS UP NORTH COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS IN THE SOUTH DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST WE GET A RETURN FLOW OF S SW WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WARMING SW FLOW ALOFT TO GIVE US MILDER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND IN THE 20S SOUTH. SOME COASTAL TOWNS MAY APPROACH 30 DEGREES. THE WX SHOULD STAY DRY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SERIES OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. THE COLD WILL EASE BUT WE`LL ALSO TURN WETTER AND STORMIER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TODAY AND TNGT THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. PASSING OCEAN LOW AND FNT TODAY WILL NOT IMPACT THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT IT HAS PRODUCED MVFR CIG AT PSM WHICH WILL CONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN IMPROVE. LONG TERM... FRI...SCT MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. SAT PM - SUN AM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. ISSUED AN SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATER TNGT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TNGT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATER ENHANCES WIND GUSTS. WINDS DROP OFF LATE TNGT AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL PICK UP TODAY THEN DROP OFF LATE TNGT...MORE SO OVER THE OPEN WATERS THAN OVER THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY... THOUGH THE RETURN FLOW OF S SW WINDS PICKS UP LATER IN THE DAY AND MAY CREATE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. WILL FCST LGT FREEZING SPRAY TODAY AND TNGT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZING SPRAY ADV. LONG TERM... FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SAT PM - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1235 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 THE COLD WEATHER WILL EASE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 TODAY...THEN INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SNOW WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BUT MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MID DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS NORTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS BY THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 A DECENT AMOUNT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ONGOING AT MIDDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN A CORRIDOR DOWNWIND OF THE LONGEST FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO...FROM HOLLAND AND MUSKEGON TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH GRAND RAPIDS AND IONIA OVER TOWARDS ALMA WE ARE SEEING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. THE HRRR SHOWS THE GUSTS SETTLING DOWN EACH HOUR THOUGH AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY 400PM IT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED DOWN QUITE A BIT...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING GUSTS COMING DOWN UNDER 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. GIVEN THE WIND IS AT ITS PEAK TODAY WILL NOT HOIST ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE FOR THE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY FALLING SNOW AND WE HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 7 MILES ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...IONIA IS AT 3/4 OF A MILE. LOCALLY VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOR AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DOWN WIND OF OPEN FIELDS. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...IN TERMS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL BE LOOKING INTO THIS FURTHER THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THERE WILL STILL BE ISSUES WITH DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS TODAY...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL. THE WIND CHILL WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE EXTENDED BITTER COLD. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT SPARKED THE INCREASED COVERAGE LATE LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED EAST. MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WAVE IS VERY SHALLOW...AND ALONG WITH LIMITED LIFT...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH. OPEN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES WITH A SW WIND GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. IT SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET TONIGHT AS WE WARM ALOFT AND SEE THE LAST OF ANY LAKE EFFECT END. THE ONLY ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF THE BRISK SSW WINDS STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY MID DAY THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT MOVES IN RIGHT AROUND THE EVENING COMMUTE TIME WHEN THE STEADIEST SNOWS SHOULD BE OCCURRING. ON TOP OF THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN THE GUSTY SSW WINDS...MAKING FOR CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THE WINDS DO FINALLY DROP OFF AS THE BAGGY GRADIENT MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH SOME WSW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD PUT DOWN 3 TO 5 INCHES WEST AND NORTH OF GRR...AND GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE EVENT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM ROUGHLY MID THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT CROSS THE CWA...SO HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY SOUTH OF I-96. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE HAVE A SHOT AT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DROPPING SNOW ON SATURDAY AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR 4 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND PROBABLY BEYOND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 THE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WINDS AND RESULTING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AS OF 17Z THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF WIND MOVES OUT. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF INLAND THIS EVENING FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER CORE OF WIND WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP EVERYONE ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z THU AND INCREASE TO 35+ KNOTS BY THEN. VSBYS ARE NOT REALLY BEING IMPACTED PER THE LATEST OBS AROUND THE AREA. KGRR IS REPORTING 4SM WITH BLSN. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY HOW MUCH VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED. WE HAVE TRENDED VSBYS DOWN WITH BLSN IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND THU IN CONCERT WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 2500 FT REMAINS AT THE TERMINALS NORTH OF I-94 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. SOME HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THU...BUT AFTER THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS SET OF FCSTS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 EXTENDED THE SCA AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING INTO TONIGHT. THEN WE SHOULD REACH SSW GALES BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 333 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 NO REAL CHANGES REGARDING HYDRO ISSUES. A FEW SITES ARE SHOWING SOME ICE AFFECTED SPIKES OCCASIONALLY...BUT ALL RIVER GAGING SITES ARE SHOWING FLAT GRAPHS WELL BELOW ADVISORY STAGE. THE ICE IS LOCKED IN AND NOT CHANGING MUCH GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WE ARE GROWING IT. GIVEN THE CONSTANT COLD WEATHER RIVER ICE IS EXPANDING IN DEPTH WHICH MAY BECOME A PROBLEM WHEN WE WARM UP DOWN THE ROAD. THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY RISE WAS ROCKFORD WHICH JUMPED 2 FEET YESTERDAY AND THEN LEVELED OFF. WE ARE MONITORING THAT SPOT...BUT ALL OTHERS ARE STABLE. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849. GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...DUKE SYNOPSIS...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...NJJ HYDROLOGY...DUKE MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 THE COLD WEATHER WILL EASE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 TODAY...THEN INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SNOW WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BUT MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MID DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS NORTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS BY THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 A DECENT AMOUNT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ONGOING AT MIDDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN A CORRIDOR DOWNWIND OF THE LONGEST FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO...FROM HOLLAND AND MUSKEGON TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH GRAND RAPIDS AND IONIA OVER TOWARDS ALMA WE ARE SEEING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. THE HRRR SHOWS THE GUSTS SETTLING DOWN EACH HOUR THOUGH AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY 400PM IT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED DOWN QUITE A BIT...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING GUSTS COMING DOWN UNDER 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. GIVEN THE WIND IS AT ITS PEAK TODAY WILL NOT HOIST ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE FOR THE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY FALLING SNOW AND WE HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 7 MILES ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...IONIA IS AT 3/4 OF A MILE. LOCALLY VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOR AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DOWN WIND OF OPEN FIELDS. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...IN TERMS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL BE LOOKING INTO THIS FURTHER THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THERE WILL STILL BE ISSUES WITH DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS TODAY...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL. THE WIND CHILL WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE EXTENDED BITTER COLD. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT SPARKED THE INCREASED COVERAGE LATE LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED EAST. MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WAVE IS VERY SHALLOW...AND ALONG WITH LIMITED LIFT...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH. OPEN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES WITH A SW WIND GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. IT SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET TONIGHT AS WE WARM ALOFT AND SEE THE LAST OF ANY LAKE EFFECT END. THE ONLY ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF THE BRISK SSW WINDS STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY MID DAY THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT MOVES IN RIGHT AROUND THE EVENING COMMUTE TIME WHEN THE STEADIEST SNOWS SHOULD BE OCCURRING. ON TOP OF THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN THE GUSTY SSW WINDS...MAKING FOR CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THE WINDS DO FINALLY DROP OFF AS THE BAGGY GRADIENT MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH SOME WSW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD PUT DOWN 3 TO 5 INCHES WEST AND NORTH OF GRR...AND GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE EVENT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM ROUGHLY MID THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT CROSS THE CWA...SO HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY SOUTH OF I-96. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE HAVE A SHOT AT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DROPPING SNOW ON SATURDAY AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR 4 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND PROBABLY BEYOND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO FLURRIES AND DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WEST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING GOING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 EXTENDED THE SCA AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING INTO TONIGHT. THEN WE SHOULD REACH SSW GALES BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 333 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 NO REAL CHANGES REGARDING HYDRO ISSUES. A FEW SITES ARE SHOWING SOME ICE AFFECTED SPIKES OCCASIONALLY...BUT ALL RIVER GAGING SITES ARE SHOWING FLAT GRAPHS WELL BELOW ADVISORY STAGE. THE ICE IS LOCKED IN AND NOT CHANGING MUCH GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WE ARE GROWING IT. GIVEN THE CONSTANT COLD WEATHER RIVER ICE IS EXPANDING IN DEPTH WHICH MAY BECOME A PROBLEM WHEN WE WARM UP DOWN THE ROAD. THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY RISE WAS ROCKFORD WHICH JUMPED 2 FEET YESTERDAY AND THEN LEVELED OFF. WE ARE MONITORING THAT SPOT...BUT ALL OTHERS ARE STABLE. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849. GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...DUKE SYNOPSIS...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...OSTUNO HYDROLOGY...DUKE MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .UPDATE... 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SLIGHTLY EXTENDED SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SNOW MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE ROBUST. OUR PRIMARY SUSPECT IN THIS CASE CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H4-H3 PV ANALYSIS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE WASH/BC BORDER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME IN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT SURROUNDING AROUND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. AS FOR THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...MODELS SIMILAR WITH SHOWING THE WASH/BC PV FEATURE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THURSDAY MORNING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK HEADING FOR IOWA...SO WE WILL BE ADDING LEFT EXIT DYNAMICS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING. AT THE SFC...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ALBERTA WILL HAVE FOUND ITS WAY INTO NRN IOWA AND UP INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. OF MICH BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER FORCING CATCHES UP WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY...WE SEE A GOOD AREA OF LIFT BLOSSOM ALONG THE 295K THETA AS WARM AIR GETS PULLED UP AND OVER THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THE 295K SFC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT THE BEST FORCING IS CENTERED DOWN ALONG THE IA BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 15Z. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE PV FEATURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS. TO NO SURPRISE... SRN MN...BETWEEN ABOUT ST. PETER AND THE IA BORDER IS WHERE ALL MODELS SHOW THE MOST QPF FALLING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF QPF FALLING DOWN THERE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL SREF MEMBERS SHOW OVER A HALF INCH OF QPF FALLING IN THIS AREA AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWS /6 INCHES/ DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE 29.03 SREF IS UP OVER 60 PERCENT DOWN BETWEEN ST. PETER AND IA. WHAT WAS DONE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO BOOST POPS EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND USED A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR QPF. THIS RESULTED AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW DOWN IN SRN MN...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES UP IN THE METRO THAT WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING RUSH ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CERTAINLY SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH HERE WILL NOT CAUSE AS MANY PROBLEMS AS THE 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EVENING RUSH IN ATLANTA DID YESTERDAY. WE DID HAVE SOME HEALTHY DISCUSSION THIS MORNING WITH DMX AND ARX ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVY FOR THIS EVENT FOR A FEW REASONS. NUMBER ONE...TIMING WISE THIS WILL IMPACT MORNING DRIVES INTO WORK/SCHOOL. IN ADDITION...IF WE DO END UP SEEING SNOWFALL TOTALS UP CLOSER TO THE 5 INCH MARK...THEN THAT MEANS WE WOULD BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES UP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR. FINALLY...ON THE BACK END OF THE SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MEANING THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONCERNS AS WELL. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH AS TO JUST HOW MUCH QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW THIS WILL PRODUCE...AS A RESULT WE DECIDED THAT THERE WAS ENOUGH TIME WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET ONE MORE LOOK AT MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 PAST THURSDAY/S SYSTEM...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHGS SOME. THE MAIN CHG IS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH A MORE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FOR MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS ANOTHER CHG RELATED TO THE UPPER JET WHICH HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN JET COMPARED TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION QUIET. ALTHOUGH TWO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK...THIS IS MAINLY REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. AS PER THE STRONGER SOUTHERN JET TAKING PLACE THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOOKING AT NORMALIZED ANOMALY EXTREMES OFF THE GEFS FOR 92/85/70H TEMPS...NO BIG COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED WITH ONLY THE TEMPORARY TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BLW ZERO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ABV ZERO. THIS IS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEKS. IF YOU COMPARE THESE EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY WHERE TEMPS FELL TO -23 AT MSP...THESE EXTREME VALUES WERE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. NEXT WEEK THESE EXTREME VALUES ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL REMAIN ON TRACK TO BEGIN GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY CLIMBED AS EXPECTED...AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MOST HEAVILY IMPACTING THE TC METRO AND AREAS SOUTH TO THE IOWA BORDER. TERMINALS IN THIS REGION CAN GENERALLY EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...PRIMARILY COMING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW. CIGS WILL LIKELY TO DROP TO LIFR FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME PERIOD. STC AND AXN REMAIN A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TO BE AS HEAVILY IMPACTED...AND WILL SEE LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS AND BETTER OVERALL CIGS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE INCOMING FRONT. THE SNOW WILL END BY ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY AND VFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY RETURN UNDER CAA AND CLEARING SKIES WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS. KMSP...1230Z TO 1500Z LOOKS TO BE LIFR WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY HAS INCREASED OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS INCOMING SNOW. DO EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN TO BELOW 1K FT DURING THIS PERIOD. TOMORROW AFTN WILL SEE MAJOR IMPROVEMENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS. TURNING COLD. FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5KTS EARLY BCMG NW AT 10G15KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
326 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND COLD NORTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAW...BUT RECENT TRENDS HAVE PUSHED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH. 19UTC RAP/HR RR ARE EVEN FARTHER NORTH PUSHING NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VERY LIGHT RETURNS...LIKELY NOT HITTING THE GROUND ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...AS WELL AS FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA...HINTING THE FARTHER NORTH MESCAL MODELS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. 12 UTC NAM/GS BU FR DATA INDICATE A PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WITHIN A WELL SATURATED LAYER. THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE PRECIPITATION AREA FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS/PF AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING GOLVA...HETTINGER...MARMARTH AND BOWMAN. AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF BOWMAN COUNTY. AMOUNTS TAPER TO AROUND AN INCH FROM BEACH TO DICKINSON...EL GIN AND ASHLEY. AND A HALF INCH OR LESS FROM WAT FORD CITY TO BISMARCK AND ELLEN DALE. ACROSS THE NORTH..COLD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. FOR NOW WILL ONLY GO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL COUNTIES SOUTH AND WEST ADDED ON AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE COLD WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE REGIONS WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL REINFORCING COLD INFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE H500 IMPULSES WILL MAINTAIN A COLD EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY REGIME IN THE EXTENDED. COLD WIND CHILLS...CLOSE TO AND WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA...LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS INTO THE MORNING THROUGH THE EXTENDED STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AREAS ALONG...NORTH...AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD GET WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TADS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 COLD FR NT HAS MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WILLISTON AND MINOT AROUND 18Z...BUT HAVE ALREADY SCATTERED OUT. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS YET THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT A SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. 12 UTC MODEL SUITE KEEP ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IN LIGHT SNOW WAS ADDED TO KDIK AROUND 03-08 UTC. WILL INFORM THE EVENING SHIFT OF CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND AND POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS INTO KISN AND KB IS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ND001>005-010>013-023-025. && $$ SHORT TERM...TWA LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...TWA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
114 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 114 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR ROSEAU TO CROOKSTON TO CASSELTON WHILE THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH ITS LEADING EDGE FROM CAVALIER TO NEAR CARRINGTON. NORTHWEST WIND ALONG AND RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS WAS THE CASE AT DEVILS LAKE...RUGBY AND CARRINGTON. HOWEVER...RAP 925 HPA WINDS STILL DECREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS BY MID-AFTERNOON...SO SURFACE WINDS IN THE 15 O 25 MPH RANGE SEEM REASONABLE. COULD BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW...BUT ASOS/AWOS VISIBILITY GENERALLY 10 SM. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT WHEREAS AREAS DOWNSTREAM WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ONCE SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 14 UTC RAP STILL SHOWING 925 HPA SOUTHWEST WIND FROM 45 TO 50 KTS CUTTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18 UTC AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY LATEST WSR-88D VAD PROFILE WHICH SHOWS 50 KTS AT 2000 FT AGL. LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...HOWEVER...IS TOO STRONG SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS TO REFLECT MUCH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 900 HPA THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING WINDS DROP TO AROUND 25 KTS...SO HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND TODAY TO BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF EASTERN ND. DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES/WIND/SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 A FEW AREAS REMAIN IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 12Z...BUT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AND ALLOWED ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL NOT SURE HOW DEEP WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAP HAS INCREASED 950MB-925MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA (INDICATING 925MB WINDS 45-50 KNOTS). SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 WIND CHILLS STILL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...BUT STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXPIRATION OF 12Z. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL PLACE THE REGION IN A WARMER AIRMASS TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE MINOR CONCERNS WITH WIND SPEED. FIRST...IN THE WARM SECTOR...MODELS INDICATE THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 925MB WINDS WILL BE 40-50 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS (SUCH AS EAST OF THE VALLEY) MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. WILL MONITOR...BUT EVEN IF SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST...ADDITIONAL HAZARDS WOULD BE MINOR. SECOND...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS INDICATE BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT 925MB WINDS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS. WITH EACH SCENARIO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW (ALTHOUGH DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE). REGION IS BACK IN A COLDER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014 THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL AGAIN BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THAT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ESCORT A SERIES OF DRY FROPAS FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SHOTS OF CANADIAN AIRMASSES. AS A RESULT A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STORM TRACK AND ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 114 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014 COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE DRY WITH NO RESTRICTION TO VSBY AND VFR CIGS. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTION TO VSBY AS GUSTY S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT SWITCH TO THE NW FROM W-E ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ROGERS SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/JK AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
256 PM PST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER AIR IS MOVING IN ALOFT...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER. EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT PASS LEVEL WHERE RAIN WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL THIS EVENING TO CHANGE TO SNOW. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH... THEN DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN DRY BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER BLUSTERY MUCH OF THE DAY AS S-N PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE WITH THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING A RESURGENCE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS CLARK COUNTY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN CLACKAMAS AND MARION COUNTIES. NO THUNDER YET...AND THUNDER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW WITH TOPS UP TO 12-15KFT...NOT HIGH OR COLD ENOUGH FOR GOOD CHARGE SEPARATION. BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SQUALLS...BUT THERE JUST IS NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO FULLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE FOR THESE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. OTHER THAN THE LINES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS... EXPECT MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWERING IN THE CASCADES...WHERE WESTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR MORE PERSISTENT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW IS INCREASING ABOVE 4500-5500 FT ALREADY...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REACH THE PASSES THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS REACHING 2000-2500 FT BY THU MORNING. FOR NOW IT APPEARS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADE PASSES AND 4-8 INCHES UP ABOVE PASS ELEVATIONS BEFORE PRECIP WINDS DOWN THU MORNING. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT APPEARS TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES COME DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA IN BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER FOOTHILL ELEVATIONS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY AS THE MAIN PACIFIC JET SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. WEAGLE .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE/SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BURGESS && .AVIATION....BREEZY VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO 10-15 KT AFTER 06Z THU. EXPECT A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR PREVAILING...BUT SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THURSDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS 2500-3500 FT THROUGH 06Z THU. CIGS MAY DROP TO 1500 FT BY 10Z LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 04Z-06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 15 KT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. /27 && .MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL JET HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35-38 KT TO THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING THE GUSTS TO STAY PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL. OVERALL WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...DROPPING BELOW 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS BY 06Z THU. GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS...SEVERAL 5 TO 9 FT SWELLS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK SO EXPECT A RATHER CHAOTIC SEA DURING THIS TIME. THE END RESULT WILL BE COMBINED SEAS HOVERING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS. /NEUMAN/27 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT.. HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1248 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY ADJUSTED GRIDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS LOWERING TEMPS A FEW NOTCHES WHILE ALSO RELAXING WINDS SLIGHTLY. NOT MUCH EFFECT ON WIND CHILL INDEX SO ADVISORY STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS. WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN COOLER. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE REGION. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM EST WEDNESDAY... TAFS ARE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAINLY WEST WINDS WILL BE LESSENING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST TO THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAINING LIGHT AND NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .CLIMATE... THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE REGION EXPERIENCES SOME RELIEF. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 30TH... TEMP YEAR ROANOKE31966 LYNCHBURG41934 DANVILLE81966 BLACKSBURG-101966 BLUEFIELD-111966 LEWISBURG 7 2004 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/PC SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...NF/PC CLIMATE...CF