Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/29/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1019 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
IN TERMS OF KEY LOW-MID LEVEL FEATURES THE 01Z RUC/00Z NAM/21Z
SREF WHERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
FOR THIS UPDATE.
KEY TO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS INTERACTION BETWEEN 700 HPA
VORTICITY MINIMUM OVER THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE AND A 700 HPA
VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST TO ITS N AND W. THIS COUPLED PAIR IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NE - WITH THE VORTICITY MINIMUM TRACKING JUST E
OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
TRACKING ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND FROM 8-12Z. THE RESULTING
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION BETWEEN THE VORTICITY MINIMUM AND
MAXIMUM WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER
SUFFOLK COUNTY LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THIS...APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE LIMITED TO WEAK
700-500 HPA Q-G AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY FOCUSED FROM
AROUND NYC NE INTO NE CT. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION TO THE
NW OF THIS LINE DUE TO THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS AS PER KOKX AND
KALY 00Z SOUNDINGS.
AT 2Z...NORTHERN EDGE OF SNOW WAS FROM KOXB-KADW-KCJR AND WAS
LIFTING NE. RADAR TRAJECTORY SUPPORTS GENERALLY COVERAGE AREA
OUTLINED ABOVE FOR SNOW VS. NO SNOW.
UPDATED FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS DRY AS 01Z RUC/00Z HRRR NOR AS
WET AS THE 00Z NAM...AND DEFINITELY NOT AS EXPANSIVE IN SNOW COVER
AS THE 21Z SREF - AS OBS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHARP CUTOFF
TO THE N AND W EDGE OF THE SNOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO
USED WAS AROUND 20:1 PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
HAVE LEFT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SUFFOLK COUNTY - WITH HIGHEST TOTALS OVER THE S FORK.
ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR 1-2" INCHES OF SNOW FROM NEW LONDON COUNTY
SE INTO NASSAU COUNTY AND S PARTS OF NYC. EXPECT NO SNOW ACROSS
INTERIOR SW CT AND THE N 1/2 OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH A
DUSTING TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING N PORTIONS OF NYC. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN EXACT N AND W EDGE OF SNOW AND
TIMING WILL HOLD OFF IN ISSUING AN SPS FOR AREAS EXPECTING 1-2" OF
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...WITH TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER - MIGHT END UP
NEEDING OVER EASTERN AREAS BECAUSE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE 1ST
PART OF RUSH HOUR.
UPDATED TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF LAV GUIDANCE AND 00Z NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE HANDLED LATEST TRENDS WELL OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAPID CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AS WEDNESDAY MORNING PROGRESSES.
ONGOING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END DURING OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON LONG ISLAND...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER FURTHER
WEST. WE EXPECT SLIPPERY CONDITIONS FOR THE RUSH EVEN IF THE SNOW
ENDS BY THEN. SUNNY SKIES RETURN FOR MID MORNING ONWARD WITH
CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPERATURES. FAIR AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES
FRIDAY. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF A FLURRY WITH THIS...ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES ON FRIDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN MILDER CONDITIONS...CAUSING MAX TEMPERATURES
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH SNOW INLAND AND RAIN ALONG THE COAST...TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE INLAND
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION FOR THE COAST IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...BUT SOME CHANGES ARE LIKELY AS WE MOVE FORWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATER ON SUNDAY INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED...ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO TRACK OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WED.
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD THEN DEVELOP WITH
LIFR VSBY AT KISP/KGON...AND IFR VSBY MOST ELSEWHERE EXCEPT KSWF
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY/VFR. EXPECT RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF UP TO
2 INCHES FROM KISP-KGON SOUTH/EAST...UP TO AN INCH AT KJFK...LESS
THAN AN INCH AT MOST OTHER TERMINALS...AND NO ACCUMULATION
AT KSWF.
CONDITIONS BECOME SKC WED AFT THE SNOW ENDS.
NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 6-7 KT OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
W WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE WED AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING W WINDS.
.THU...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15G20KT.
.FRI...CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE W AT 10-20KT.
.SAT...CHC OF MIXED PRECIP OR LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
WINDS BECOMING S.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS OVER ALL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH CAA IN IT/S WAKE POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR MARGINAL SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVE.
HELD OFF ON SCA AT THIS TIME DUE TO MARGINAL NATURE.
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS. LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH ACROSS NE NJ AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TO UP TO 2/10 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVEN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS ARCTIC AIR PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. ICE JAM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED FLOW.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLE/FIG
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MLE
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MLE/FIG
HYDROLOGY...MLE/FIG
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
AFFECT THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON SURFACE DEW POINTS THE ECMWF VERIFIED THE BEST AT 00Z.
IN TERMS OF GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF THE SNOW REACHING THE GROUND
THROUGH 00Z THE GFS VERIFIED THE CLOSEST. THE CANADIAN MODELS HAD
THE MOST EGREGIOUS ERRORS. COMPARING THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB FCST
SOUNDINGS VS THE ACTUAL IAD AND WAL SOUNDING, THE GFS WAS CLOSER,
BOTH MODELS WERE TOO WARM AT WAL A BIT. AT IAD THE WRF-NMMB WAS
100MB TOO SATURATED (DOWN TO 900MB VS 800MB) WITH THE COLUMN.
THIS EXPLAINS THE STRUGGLE OF THE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST BAND TO
REACH THE GROUND SO FAR IN THE DC AREA. AT 500MB NATIONWIDE, THE
500MB TROF WAS VERIFYING SLIGHTLY WEAKER, BUT THE RIDGING OUT WEST
SLIGHTLY STRONGER, SO WE WILL CALL THIS A WASH.
WHERE DEW POINTS BOUNCE UP ABOVE ZERO, THE SNOW STARTS REACHING
THE GROUND. WE STILL HAVE A DRY POCKET ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR, SO
THE DRIER SOLUTIONS OF THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HAD LEGS SO FAR THIS
EVENING. THEIR SOLUTIONS PIVOTS MEASURABLE SNOW INTO THE I95
CORRIDOR (NAM SLIGHTLY MORE NW) BEFORE IT EASES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
IF THIS VERIFIES, PROPS TO THE SPC AND NSSL WRFS FOR HAVING THIS
SOLUTION FROM LAST NIGHT.
FOR THIS UPDATE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MEASURABLE SNOW GETTING
TO THE FALL LINE AND STRUGGLING ANYWHERE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE KEPT. THE LATEST WRF CONTINUES THE DRYING TREND THAT
STARTED WITH ITS 18Z RUN IN THAT REGARD. ON THE OTHER END OF THE
SPECTRUM, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE BACKING OFF OF PCPN ACROSS OUR
SERN CWA AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST (AND WE OBSERVE) SOME
FGEN BANDING AS WELL AS REMAINING IN THE OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH CROSS
HAIRS. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT ACCUM FORECAST. TRAFFIC
CAMS IN DELAWARE ARE SHOWING A SOLID COATING (IF NOT MORE)
ALREADY.
NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS WERE MADE. IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM WE HAD TO
LOWER DEW POINTS WHERE SNOW HAS YET TO BEGIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR EAST TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY, THEREFORE
ANY LINGERING SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS
WILL STILL BE RATHER COLD, HOWEVER SOME WARMING IS FORECAST ALOFT,
WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AT THE SURFACE GETTING INTO THE 20S
FOR MANY PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS AT
TIMES AND THIS WILL PRODUCE RATHER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. OVERALL, WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE REACHED. OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD SEE DECENT CLEARING FAIRLY QUICK
IN THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE MORE DAY OF COLD WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BEFORE A
WARMING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE FORECAST, FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THE
BROAD TROUGH THAT HAS DOMINATED THE EAST COAST FOR SO LONG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL, OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW THICKNESSES
BEGIN TO RISE, ALLOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY ON HOW
THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT.
FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AS THE GFS
AND NAM SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND TEMPORARILY STALL OUR FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, WE INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, BEFORE PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST, AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE
INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE GFS BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
IT BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP FRIDAY DRY,
BUT RATHER LIFT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN NORTHWARD AS THEY LIFT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA, THEN BRING IN
MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS, WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, A RANGE OF
P-TYPES COULD FALL. WITH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUR IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES, WE WILL KEEP A RAIN, SNOW, OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER WITH MORE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF SHOWS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASSING TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS
PRETTY FAR IN THE FUTURE, WE WILL NOT INCREASE POPS JUST YET AND
WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS PROGRESSES.
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A PRETTY STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THEN MOVING TOWARD OUR ARE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AT
THE END AND JUST PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY POTENT SYSTEM. FOR NOW WE HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY SINCE THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SNOW SHIELD WILL EXPAND NORTH
AND WEST TO ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. WHILE THERE STILL IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE SNOW GETS, SOME SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR A TIME AT KTTN, KPHL/KPNE AND KILG. THE
STEADIER AND MORE PRONOUNCED SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND KACY.
THEREFORE, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED AT ALL THESE TERMINALS,
WITH THE LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. AS OF NOW, NO SNOW WAS INCLUDED AT
KRDG AND KABE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, WITH EVEN
SOME TERMINALS HAVING THE WIND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES MAINLY AT
KMIV AND KACY EARLY AS SNOW ENDS, OTHERWISE VFR WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING AND CLEARING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OF COLD AIR TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAS ALLOWED THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SOME LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, HOWEVER IT MAY BE MARGINAL
REGARDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS OF NOW, WE HELD WINDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA /25 KNOTS/. AS THE WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN, SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY DEVELOP ALTHOUGH AS OF NOW IT DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT-ADVISORY CONDITIONS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ALL RIVERS IN THE HSA REPORT AT LEAST SOME ICE COVER...WITH MANY
COMPLETELY ICE COVERED. MANY GAGE READINGS SHOW ICE EFFECTS. WITH
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT, SO THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS
LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SITUATION WILL BE REASSESSED.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR NEARBY STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
NOTIFY THE APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL IF YOU SHOULD SEE ANY FLOODING
AND/OR AN ICE JAM OCCURRING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ020>022-025>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ023-024.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GORSE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GORSE/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
623 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
AFFECT THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 18Z MODEL SUITE AS WELL AS THE LAST COUPLE OF RAP AND HRRR
RUNS HAVE BEEN ERODING THE SNOW/PCPN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
WHILE SHOWING LESS OF A DOWNWARD TREND TOWARD THE COAST. THE 18Z
MODELS DID HAVE FGEN FORCING AFFECTING THE SERN QUARTER OF OUR
CWA AS WELL AS REMAINING BEING IN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE AREA. SFC DEW POINT RESPONSE WI OUR CWA HAS BEEN SLOW, BUT
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND THE SUPPLY OF FRESH DRY AIR IS
WEAKENING. ABOVE ZERO DEW POINTS ARE CORRESPONDING TO WHERE THE
SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND WHILE IFR SNOW IS BEST CORRESPONDING
TO DEW POINTS TOWARD 10F. BASICALLY THIS CONTINUES THE IDEA OF A
SLOW SNOW GO FOR THE START OF THE EVENING AND A BETTER RAMP UP
OVERNIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
LOWER SOME IMMEDIATE POPS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S
COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN
FOCUS IS THIS SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHARPENING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING EASTWARD WILL KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD. THIS INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS, HOWEVER AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTHWARD, THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIME AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THIS WINTER THOUGH, THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CAN CHANGE
THINGS UP AND THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER EXAMPLE.
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING SOME MORE, WHICH LEADS TO THE TROUGH AXIS
ORIENTATION CHANGING SOME. THIS THEREFORE AFFECTS THE DOWNSTREAM
FLOW SUCH THAT ASSOCIATED LIFT ESPECIALLY IN THE 700-850 MB LAYER
SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A RIBBON OF 700-850 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS LIFT ALSO REACHES INTO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE AIRMASS BELOW
700 MB MOISTENING UP WITH TIME. DESPITE RATHER LOW SURFACE DEW
POINTS, SOME SNOW HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON WELL
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB SHOWED THE MOISTURE
ABOVE 700 MB HOWEVER BELOW THIS LEVEL IT IS VERY DRY. THE ASSOCIATED
LIFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS AS THE MOISTURE ABOVE IS
SQUEEZED OUT. IN ADDITION, THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS LOWER TO THE
GROUND AND THE MAXIMUM LIFT INTERSECTS INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THIS DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER FLUFFY SNOWFALL,
AND POTENTIALLY AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. ONE OF THE
CHALLENGES THOUGH PERTAINS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
SNOW SHIELD REGARDING HOW MUCH ENDS UP NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THE
NAM MAY BE TO WET ESPECIALLY ON ITS NORTHWEST EDGE AND ITS HIGHER
THAN REALITY DEW POINTS COULD BE A FACTOR IN ITS HIGHER QPF
ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTHWEST. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A SHARP
WESTERN EDGE FROM SNOW TO NO SNOW, AND WE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN
OUR POPS/QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. IT IS VERY COLD, THEREFORE THE SNOW
WILL QUICKLY STICK TO ALL UNTREATED SURFACES.
SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AMONG
THE MODELS AND AFTER COLLABORATION THIS AFTERNOON, THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED WEST AND NORTHWARD A TIER OR SO OF
COUNTIES/ZONES. BASED ON THE QPF FORECAST AND USING HIGHER RATIOS,
WE UPGRADED SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE AND CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NEW
JERSEY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. THE START TIME IS A BIT IFFY AS IT
MAY A TAKE LONGER FOR THE SNOW TO REALLY GET GOING ESPECIALLY
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. FOR THE AREAS ADJACENT TO
THE ADVISORY IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATES,
HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN EDGE ALONG WITH RATIOS.
GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE FARTHER WEST, WE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE THESE
AREAS ATTM IN THE ADVISORY AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND THEN MADE SOME
MAINLY MINOR TWEAKS. THE HOURLY GRIDS INCORPORATED THE LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE INTO THIS EVENING TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR EAST TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY, THEREFORE
ANY LINGERING SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS
WILL STILL BE RATHER COLD, HOWEVER SOME WARMING IS FORECAST ALOFT,
WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AT THE SURFACE GETTING INTO THE 20S
FOR MANY PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS AT
TIMES AND THIS WILL PRODUCE RATHER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. OVERALL, WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE REACHED. OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD SEE DECENT CLEARING FAIRLY QUICK
IN THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE MORE DAY OF COLD WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BEFORE A
WARMING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE FORECAST, FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THE
BROAD TROUGH THAT HAS DOMINATED THE EAST COAST FOR SO LONG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL, OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW THICKNESSES
BEGIN TO RISE, ALLOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE AND A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY ON HOW
THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT.
FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AS THE GFS
AND NAM SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND TEMPORARILY STALL OUR FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, WE INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, BEFORE PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST, AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE
INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE GFS BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
IT BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP FRIDAY DRY,
BUT RATHER LIFT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN NORTHWARD AS THEY LIFT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA, THEN BRING IN
MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS, WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, A RANGE OF
P-TYPES COULD FALL. WITH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUR IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES, WE WILL KEEP A RAIN, SNOW, OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER WITH MORE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF SHOWS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASSING TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS
PRETTY FAR IN THE FUTURE, WE WILL NOT INCREASE POPS JUST YET AND
WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS PROGRESSES.
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A PRETTY STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THEN MOVING TOWARD OUR ARE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AT
THE END AND JUST PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY POTENT SYSTEM. FOR NOW WE HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY SINCE THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SNOW SHIELD WILL EXPAND NORTH
AND WEST TO ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. WHILE THERE STILL IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE SNOW GETS, SOME SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR A TIME AT KTTN, KPHL/KPNE AND KILG. THE
STEADIER AND MORE PRONOUNCED SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND KACY.
THEREFORE, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED AT ALL THESE TERMINALS,
WITH THE LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. AS OF NOW, NO SNOW WAS INCLUDED AT
KRDG AND KABE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, WITH EVEN
SOME TERMINALS HAVING THE WIND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES MAINLY AT
KMIV AND KACY EARLY AS SNOW ENDS, OTHERWISE VFR WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING AND CLEARING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OF COLD AIR TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAS ALLOWED THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SOME LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, HOWEVER IT MAY BE MARGINAL
REGARDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS OF NOW, WE HELD WINDS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA /25 KNOTS/. AS THE WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN, SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY DEVELOP ALTHOUGH AS OF NOW IT DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT-ADVISORY CONDITIONS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ALL RIVERS IN THE HSA REPORT AT LEAST SOME ICE COVER...WITH MANY
COMPLETELY ICE COVERED. MANY GAGE READINGS SHOW ICE EFFECTS. WITH
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT, SO THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS
LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SITUATION WILL BE REASSESSED.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR NEARBY STREAMS AND RIVERS AND
NOTIFY THE APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL IF YOU SHOULD SEE ANY FLOODING
AND/OR AN ICE JAM OCCURRING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ020>022-025>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ023-024.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GORSE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GORSE/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENT...LOCAL 88D IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWER BAND ALONG THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OSCEOLA/BREVARD COS AS
OF 15Z/10AM. EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THE BAND HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN
AND LAY OUT W-E AS ITS SOUTHWARD TACK HAS LOST CONSIDERABLE STEAM.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD COVER ALONG/NORTH OF
THE TROUGH/SHOWER BAND...WHILE SKIES ARE MCLEAR TO THE SOUTH. H20
VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANLYS SHOO ONE H50 IMPULSE DEPARTING OFFSHORE THE
FL EAST COAST...WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING INTO THE PENINSULA FROM THE
GOMEX. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS NORTH VS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...NORTH
LAKE/VOLUSIA WERE NEAR 60F WHILE THE LAKE OKEE/JUPITER REGION WAS
ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE M70S. MORNING RAOBS SHOW BOTH LOW LEVEL AND
MEAN MOISTURE HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS PROGGED
WITH PWATS ABOUT 1.3 TO 1.4"
REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE WEAK WILL DAMPEN OUT TODAY WITH THE RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTH FL BECOMING THE MAIN WX FEATURE. WEAK VORT ENERGY
ALOFT WILL ZIP ACROSS THE PENINSULA...REACHING THE ATLC SIDE BY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREMISE FOR PRECIP LOOKS ISOLATED AT BEST.
CLOUDS TO THE NORTH WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AS NRLY FLOW SLOWLY
BACKS AROUND TO WSW-SW....WHILE TO THE SOUTH...WARM SWRLY FLOW
WILL EASILY PUSH MAXES IN THE L80S...COMPARED TO M-U70S TO THE
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...SEVERAL AMDS NEEDED ACROSS LEE-SFB-DAB FOR STUBBORN
IFR CIGS BKN-OVC006-008...AND IT APPEARS THESE CLOUDS WILL NEED
A COUPLE MORE HRS TO BREAK UP AND LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO WRLY BREEZE WILL KEEP SEAS
1-2FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNSET. TOWARD
THIS END...SHAVED JUST A BIT OFF THE HIGH END OF SEA HGT GRIDS.
&&
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014/
TUESDAY...ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE SE ATLC COAST WITH A TRAILING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS WITH SOME FILTERED SUN ACROSS
SRN SECTIONS. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLGT CHC CENTRAL ZONES AND DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LWR-MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S/LWR
80S ACROSS SRN SECTIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND
PULL THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. PREVALENT
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE TWD NRN SECTIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM KISSIMMEE TO CAPE CANAVERAL.
WILL AGAIN KEEP A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
AND DRY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. LOWS MID 50S FAR NORTH AND LWR-MID 60S
FOR THE TREASURE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTENSIVE POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL. EXPECT LIKELY
SHOWERS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S FROM LEESBURG TO DAYTONA
BEACH...AROUND 70 IN MELBOURNE AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MARTIN
COUNTY.
WED NIGHT...GFS HINTS AT LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT WITH N-NE LOW LVL FLOW FROM THE SFC-H9...LOW LVL WAA AT H8 AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING H2 THROUGH AND
FAVORABLE RR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF RAIN SOME POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
FOR A TIME. SOME COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO NRN LAKE/INLAND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES WITH LOWS AROUND 40 DEGS. FOR RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE A COLD
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY
PRECIP IF GFS/NAM TEMP PROFILES VERIFY.
THU...00Z GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THU
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY LEANING TWD THE GFS AT THIS POINT. IF
GFS SLOW DOWN CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION MAY HAVE TO RAISE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE PRECIP PULLS OFFSHORE. HIGHS IN THE
60S NORTH TO LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.
FRI-SUN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GA TO START THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC WITH VEERING LOW LVL FLOW AND RISING MID LVL
HEIGHTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE CLIMO FOR
HIGHS BY SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80/LWR 80S SRN
SECTIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH NEAR SHORE OCEAN
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S. ENOUGH LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED BY SAT AFTN AND SUNDAY TO INSERT SOME SLGT SHOWER CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTH OF MLB VSBYS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH SOME TEMPO IFR. OCCASIONAL -RA POSSIBLE FROM ISM/MLB NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL CAUSE BRIEF LOWER VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TODAY
TO 10-15 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS
INCREASE A BIT TO 1-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE BUT WITH
PERIODS 9-10 SECONDS ONLY CHOP WILL BE FROM WINDS.
TUE-FRI...VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME S-SW
TUE NIGHT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND A FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY REQUIRED FOR MID WEEK. WINDS WILL
VEER AND LIGHTEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOW FOR MUCH
BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
328 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WIND PROFILER SHOWS DEEPENING S/SW FLOW OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS WHICH HAS ASSISTED IN INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES
AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
MOSTLY NORTH OF MELBOURNE. DON`T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY LOW
VISIBILITIES SO THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY EVEN ALTHOUGH IT BEGINS TO
SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL KEEP LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDINESS IN
THE FORECAST PARTICULARLY FROM ABOUT OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES
NORTHWARD. RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT RECORD HIGHS AREN`T
EXPECTED.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO FLORIDA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY BUT CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE
LEFT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. NEITHER WIDESPREAD NOR SIGNIFICANT
FOG IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
TUESDAY...ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE SE ALTC COAST WITH A TRAILING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS WITH SOME FILTERED SUN ACROSS
SRN SECTIONS. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLGT CHC CENTRAL ZONES AND DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LWR-MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S/LWR
80S ACROSS SRN SECTIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND
PULL THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. PREVALENT
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE TWD NRN SECTIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM KISSIMMEE TO CAPE CANAVERAL.
WILL AGAIN KEEP A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
AND DRY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. LOWS MID 50S FAR NORTH AND LWR-MID 60S
FOR THE TREASURE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTENSIVE POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL. EXPECT LIKELY
SHOWERS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S FROM LEESBURG TO DAYTONA
BEACH...AROUND 70 IN MELBOURNE AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MARTIN
COUNTY.
WED NIGHT...GFS HINTS AT LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT WITH N-NE LOW LVL FLOW FROM THE SFC-H9...LOW LVL WAA AT H8 AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING H2 THROUGH AND
FAVORABLE RR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF RAIN SOME POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
FOR A TIME. SOME COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO NRN LAKE/INLAND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES WITH LOWS AROUND 40 DEGS. FOR RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE A COLD
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY
PRECIP IF GFS/NAM TEMP PROFILES VERIFY.
THU...00Z GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THU
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY LEANING TWD THE GFS AT THIS POINT. IF
GFS SLOW DOWN CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION MAY HAVE TO RAISE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE PRECIP PULLS OFFSHORE. HIGHS IN THE
60S NORTH TO LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.
FRI-SUN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GA TO START THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC WITH VEERING LOW LVL FLOW AND RISING MID LVL
HEIGHTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE CLIMO FOR
HIGHS BY SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80/LWR 80S SRN
SECTIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH NEAR SHORE OCEAN
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S. ENOUGH LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED BY SAT AFTN AND SUNDAY TO INSERT SOME SLGT SHOWER CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTH OF MLB VISYBS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH SOME TEMPO IFR. OCCASIONAL -RA POSSIBLE FROM ISM/MLB NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL CAUSE BRIEF LOWER VISBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TODAY
TO 10-15 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS
INCREASE A BIT TO 1-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE BUT WITH
PERIODS 9-10 SECONDS ONLY CHOP WILL BE FROM WINDS.
TUE-FRI...VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME S-SW
TUE NIGHT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND A FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY REQUIRED FOR MID WEEK. WINDS WILL
VEER AND LIGHTEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOW FOR MUCH
BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 56 73 55 / 30 10 30 40
MCO 76 57 78 59 / 20 10 20 30
MLB 79 59 77 63 / 20 10 10 20
VRB 79 57 79 62 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 74 56 75 53 / 30 10 20 40
SFB 76 57 76 57 / 30 10 20 30
ORL 75 58 77 58 / 30 10 20 30
FPR 79 56 79 63 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BOWEN
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1006 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A
STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE
INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO ALL SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AHEAD OF
THIS TRANSITION LINE.
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THIS
SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE BELOW
FREEZING. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE LATEST SPC WRF INDICATED SNOW ENDING IN THE WEST PART BETWEEN
400 AM AND 600 AM...AND THE EAST PART DURING THE 600 AM TO 900 AM
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW
MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW AND GETTING BELOW THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 200 AM TO 600 AM TIME FRAME...SO THE
SNOW MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER AND POSSIBLY BECOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEFORE ENDING.
MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING
THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER
SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN
OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIPITATION-TYPE EVENT.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PIEDMONT...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM MCCORMICK TO
SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA TO AIKEN TO
COLUMBIA PLUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS
FROM CAMDEN TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA A
MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECASTED. THIS
INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG
AND ORANGEBURG...TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH.
THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT-
OVER SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND
FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY
WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER
IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE
REMNANT SNOW/ICE. SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH READINGS BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS SHOWING INDICATING BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...STALLING IT TO
OUR SOUTH. CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEGUN TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AS
MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS TRANSITIONED INTO SNOW AT THE CSRA AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS SITES...CAE/CUB/DNL/AGS. AT OGB...EXPECT THE
TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO MAINLY SNOW BY AROUND 06Z WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AT THAT TIME. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SHOW PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF
IN THE FAR WESTERN MIDLANDS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TAF
SITES BEGINNING AROUND 10Z AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD
AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A RETURN TO MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
930 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A
STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE
INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO ALL SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AHEAD OF
THIS TRANSITION LINE.
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THIS
SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE BELOW
FREEZING. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE LATEST SPC WRF INDICATED SNOW ENDING IN THE WEST PART BETWEEN
400 AM AND 600 AM...AND THE EAST PART DURING THE 600 AM TO 900 AM
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW
MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW AND GETTING BELOW THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 200 AM TO 600 AM TIME FRAME...SO THE
SNOW MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER AND POSSIBLY BECOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEFORE ENDING.
MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING
THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER
SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN
OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIPITATION-TYPE EVENT.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PIEDMONT...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM MCCORMICK TO
SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA TO AIKEN TO
COLUMBIA PLUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS
FROM CAMDEN TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA A
MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECASTED. THIS
INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG
AND ORANGEBURG...TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH.
THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT-
OVER SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND
FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY
WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER
IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE
REMNANT SNOW/ICE. SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH READINGS BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS SHOWING INDICATING BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...STALLING IT TO
OUR SOUTH. CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR THE TIMING. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE COOLING WILL OCCUR
AND MIXED PRECIPITATIONS SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. USED THE RAP FOR
THE TIMING. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN BEGINNING AROUND 10Z AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
THE MAV AND MET MOS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A
RETURN TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
740 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A
STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE
INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SNOW WAS OCCURRING NORTHWEST OF AN AUGUSTA...COLUMBIA AND
CHESTERFIELD LINE AT 700 PM. ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE IT
WAS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS LINE HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING AND THE LATEST RAP INDICATES PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION WHERE THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE LATER.
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE BELOW
FREEZING. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST SPCA
RF INDICATED SNOW ENDING IN THE WEST PART BETWEEN 400 AM AND 600
AM...AND THE EAST PART DURING THE 600 AM TO 900 AM TIME FRAME.
MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING
THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER
SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN
OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIPITATION-TYPE EVENT.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PIEDMONT...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM MCCORMICK TO
SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA TO AIKEN TO
COLUMBIA PLUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS
FROM CAMDEN TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA A
MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECASTED. THIS
INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG
AND ORANGEBURG...TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACCUMULATION FORECAST DUE TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AND SMALL CHANGES IN THE VERTICAL
PROFILE CAN HAVE PROFOUND INFLUENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
ACCUMULATION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT WE WILL REACH THE
WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF
SNOW...OR AT LEAST 1/4 OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.
THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT-OVER
SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND FREEZING
FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY
WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER
IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE
REMNANT SNOW/ICE. SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH READINGS BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS SHOWING INDICATING BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...STALLING IT TO
OUR SOUTH. CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR THE TIMING. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE COOLING WILL OCCUR
AND MIXED PRECIPITATIONS SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. USED THE RAP FOR
THE TIMING. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN BEGINNING AROUND 10Z AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
THE MAV AND MET MOS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A
RETURN TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
646 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE UP
THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE WINTER STORM IS RAPIDLY RAMPING UP EARLY THIS EVENING. FREEZING
RAIN WAS BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE NORTH OF I-16. A MESOSCALE
BAND EVIDENT FROM YEMASSEE TO SUMMERVILLE TO HUGER...SOME SLEET
MIXING IN ALONG IT WITH HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN REPORTED. HEAVIER PCPN
NOW INCREASING NORTH OF A COBBTOWN TO NEWINGTON LINE AT 630 PM.
WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
MIXING WITH LIQUID RAIN SINCE THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. OUR 00Z
SOUNDING CONFIRMED WHAT THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE ABOVE A 2000 FT DEEP
SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER. RUC13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM
TO BE DOING FAIRLY WELL AT TRACKING THE THERMAL PROFILE THIS
EVENING. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE PROFILE WILL TRANSITION TO
A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SC AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA...RAIN WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SLEET OCCASIONALLY MIXING IN. THEN THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPES PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE BY LATE THIS EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS THE GA BEACHES.
THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A
POTENT UPPER VORT LIFTS NORTHEAST...COINCIDENT WITH A POTENT UPPER
JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. LATE THIS
EVENING THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS OUR INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES
COOL ENOUGH THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME
SLEET. THIS TREND WILL TREK STEADILY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DAYBREAK. FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OUR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA
ZONES WILL MAINLY EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET...WITH
SNOW POSSIBLE CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.
AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...IT IS OF COURSE VERY CHALLENGING TO PIN
DOWN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION SINCE THE PRECIP WILL BE TRANSITIONING
CONSTANTLY. ALSO...SINCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THE QPF MAY FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN SNOW...THIS DECREASES THE LIQUID TO SOLID
CONVERSION RATIO. OUR LATEST FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BEING 2-3 INCHES OF
SLEET/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SC...ALONG WITH THE GREATER ICE
ACCRETION UP TO HALF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE THE TOTALS WILL DIMINISH
AS ONE MOVES SOUTH AND WEST...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL STILL OCCUR. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING
IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS. IT IS UNCLEAR IF WE WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA ICE OR SNOW/SLEET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GA. HOWEVER TRAVEL
WILL CERTAINLY BE HAMPERED AND EVERYONE IN THE WARNING IS ADVISED
TO AVOID TRAVELING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE STILL EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH
THE 20S DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE 18Z NAM AND GFS KEEP SOME
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...A BIT FARTHER BACK INTO
COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BRUNT OF
THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SNOW WITH A LITTLE SLEET ALSO
POSSIBLE. ASSUMING WE HAVE SOME ICE ON THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING MUCH. WE WILL
PROBABLY NOT BREAK FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHILE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 34-35F DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING. MUCH OF THE ICE THAT REMAINS
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS WILL PROBABLY NOT MELT VERY MUCH ON
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE RESULTING LIGHT WINDS...WHEN
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...WILL SUPPORT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENVIRONMENT. CONSIDERING THE ALREADY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE
THAT SUPPRESSED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. A BAROCLINIC ZONE PERSISTING
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS.
WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY MONITOR NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AS A
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AN ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO PUSH LOCALLY ONSHORE.
THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE OFFSHORE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ANY PRECIPITATION
LINGERING NEAR THE COAST DURING THE MORNING WILL ALSO SHIFT INTO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINING
BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE TRANSITIONING SURFACE PATTERN WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE...YET STILL BE SUPPRESSED WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE 40 DEGREE
RANGE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES STILL ABLE TO FALL INTO THE 20S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AND FLAT UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH NORTHWARD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A WARMING
TREND...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC...HEIGHTS BUILD WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT ONLY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCHS...FREEZING RAIN HAS SET IN AT THE TERMINAL AND PERIODS OF HEAVIER
FZRA WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. MUCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IFR CIGS INTO THE MID MORNING BUT COLD DRIER AIR TO NORTH CONTINUES
TO MAKE CIGS A TOUCH AND GO FORECAST ELEMENT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ALSO LIKELY THIS EVENING. THE FREEZING RAIN COULD CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING BUT OUR CONFIDENCE HAS NOT CHANGED ENOUGH TO
ALTER THE OVERALL MIXED PCPN TREND IN THE TAFS. MVFR CIGS OR LOWER
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WED. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
FREEZING RAIN EPISODES.
KSAV...STILL WAITING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO ARRIVE AT THE
TERMINAL BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS STILL BRING IT IN BY MID EVENING.
WE HAVE FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 02Z AND SLEET COULD BE
MIXED IN AT TIMES BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LINGERING SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD EAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SYSTEM. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
AND A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTH WINDS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED...AND THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE NEARSHORE
AND 8 TO 10 FT OFFSHORE. A CONSTANT INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION WILL CAUSE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND/OR EVEN CHANGE OVER TO SOME
FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EAST
AND SHOULD KEEP ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FAR TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THERE WILL STILL BE A
SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE ZONES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY...THEN SHIFTS
FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
APPROACH AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WINDS/SEAS WILL AGAIN
CLIMB TOWARD POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES THERE IS A RISK OF SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 29TH...
KCHS...41 SET IN 2000.
KCHL...36 SET IN 1897.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1897.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL/WMS
LONG TERM...33/WMS AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL/WMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
311 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT
WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE
/DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE
SO WITH A WARNING.
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES
UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY
HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A
RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO
SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE
CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA
ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED
THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH
THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN
THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY
BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER
GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND
THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG
CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30
TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING
AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING
AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY
MORNING.
MTF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE
FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER
SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER
PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET
LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT
SNOW FOR EVERYONE.
FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE
PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR
REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND
ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE
THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY.
WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND
MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF
TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRIFTING...BUT IMPACTS TO VSBY
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25KT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
LEADING TO VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW
30 KT RANGE...AND WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BLOWING SNOW IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE WAVES OF
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NIGHT LEADING TO VSBY
BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING AS
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
VERTICAL VISIBILITIES RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CIGS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO VSBY DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SPEED/TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CST
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WHILE STILL SEEING REPORTS OF GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
GALES BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT WILL THEN REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE
25-30KT RANGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH 30 KT WINDS...A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION
MIDWEEK MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING AT LEAST
A BRIEF LULL IN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL
NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
245 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT
WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE
/DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE
SO WITH A WARNING.
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES
UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY
HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A
RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO
SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE
CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA
ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED
THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH
THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN
THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY
BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER
GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND
THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG
CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30
TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING
AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING
AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY
MORNING.
MTF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE
FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER
SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER
PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET
LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT
SNOW FOR EVERYONE.
FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE
PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR
REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND
ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE
THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY.
WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND
MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF
TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VSBY AT TIMES.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EASING THIS EVENING.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
LEADING TO VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW
30 KT RANGE...AND WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BLOWING SNOW IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE WAVES OF
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NIGHT LEADING TO VSBY
BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING AS
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
VERTICAL VISIBILITIES RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CIGS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING VSBY CHANGES OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VARIABLE VSBY IN WAVES OF BLOWING SNOW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SPEED/TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CST
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WHILE STILL SEEING REPORTS OF GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
GALES BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT WILL THEN REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE
25-30KT RANGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH 30 KT WINDS...A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION
MIDWEEK MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING AT LEAST
A BRIEF LULL IN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL
NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1147 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT
WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE
/DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE
SO WITH A WARNING.
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES
UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY
HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A
RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO
SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE
CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA
ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED
THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH
THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN
THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY
BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER
GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND
THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG
CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30
TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING
AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING
AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY
MORNING.
MTF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE
FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER
SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER
PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET
LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT
SNOW FOR EVERYONE.
FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE
PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR
REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND
ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE
THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY.
WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND
MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF
TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VSBY AT TIMES.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EASING THIS EVENING.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
LEADING TO VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW
30 KT RANGE...AND WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BLOWING SNOW IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE WAVES OF
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NIGHT LEADING TO VSBY
BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING AS
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
VERTICAL VISIBILITIES RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CIGS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING VSBY CHANGES OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VARIABLE VSBY IN WAVES OF BLOWING SNOW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SPEED/TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
151 PM CST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...RELATIVELY LIGHTER SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...A QUICKLY APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY HAS SINCE CHANGED THESE CONDITIONS...AND
REPLACED THEM WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE.
20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...BUT WITH THIS QUICKLY
CHANGING AS SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH GALES QUICKLY
BEING OBSERVED OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE AND NEARSHORE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST GALES CAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LINGERING INTO THE
REST OF THE DAY MONDAY. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING GALES
COULD LINGER SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN THE CURRENT GALE WARNING THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WITH REGARDS TO THE
POSSIBILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINE END TIME
AND JUST MENTION GALE FORCE GUSTS. A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BUT ALSO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023...3 AM
MONDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM
MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...3 AM MONDAY
TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019...3 AM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1152 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING WINDS...SNOW...AND DIVING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND CAUSE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY START TO WARM BACK UP. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH THE EXTREME COLD WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES FOR SNOW THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
MILD EVENING BY RECENT STANDARDS AS TEMPS REMAIN FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AT 01Z. DO NOT BE FOOLED AS THIS VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
THE CLUTCHES OF OLD MAN WINTER WILL END ABRUPTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
A NUMBER OF ISSUES TO DELVE INTO AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT
LOCATION AT 01Z IS FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN/
CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE REASONABLY
WELL TO THIS POINT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL USE IT
AS A GENERAL GUIDE FOR TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. TO THIS POINT...SNOW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE BEEN HEAVIEST OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND EASTERN IOWA. PRECIP HAS ACTUALLY STARTED AS LIGHT RAIN FOR A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD AT ONSET FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS BACK INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA. COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN HERE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF
INDY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WITHIN THE LOW
LEVELS INITIALLY. AS STATED IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT RAIN AT
ONSET...EXPECT IT TO BE VERY BRIEF AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES
SHOULD ENABLE LOW LEVEL SATURATION WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE
COLUMN RAPIDLY FALLS BELOW FREEZING.
CURRENT HRRR CONTINUES TO BRING SQUALLS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY AFTER 02Z...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST QUICKLY. THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHALLOW BUT STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 900MB AND A THIN LAYER OF INSTABILITY TO BOOT
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH
40-50KTS NOTED AT ABOUT 3KFT...THE PRESENCE OF AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...ANTICIPATE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER
WITH THE SQUALLS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALONE WILL ONLY BE AN INCH OR SO AT MOST...THE COMBINATION
OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL BRING A RENEWED PERIOD OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS THE SQUALLS PASS ALONG WITH DIFFICULT IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT THE MOST
INTENSE PART OF THE SQUALLS NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE-BLOOMINGTON-
COLUMBUS LINE...AND WILL LIKELY ADD A STRONGLY WORDED SPS THAT
FOCUSES STRICTLY ON THE IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW SQUALLS TO GO ALONG
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AT THIS
POINT AND WILL MAKE ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS.
RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE RULE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED
300-400 MILES BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE INTENSE COLD ADVECTION AND
EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ENABLE ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONE ADDITIONAL PROBLEM COURTESY OF OUR RAPID THAW
TODAY AND REFREEZE TONIGHT AS TEMPS TUMBLE...ICY SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO
FORM WHERE ROADS EXPERIENCED MELTING. ALL IN ALL...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND CREATE YET ANOTHER DIFFICULT
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR ZERO BY
DAYBREAK WITH WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -10F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
EXTREME COLD WILL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH THE MORNING TO COVER WIND CHILLS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ANY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DUE TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE BUT CLOUD COVER
CLEARING OUT. BY LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD START A BIG
DESCENT AND AFTER THE SUN SETS THEY WILL PLUMMET. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -26C HAVE CUT FROM EVEN COLDEST GUIDANCE
NUMBERS WITH THEIR CLIMO BIAS AND WENT NEAR THE RAW MODEL NUMBERS
FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS. THIS YIELDED LOW TEMPERATURES FROM -18 IN
THE NORTH TO -4 IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING FROM DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE 10-20 MPH AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS OF -30 TO -40 FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -25 IN THE SOUTH. THUS WILL GO WITH A WIND
CHILL WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
SOUTH. WILL START THESE PRODUCTS AT THE SAME TIME /17Z/ AS THE END
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...ALTHOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA UNTIL AROUND 0Z TUESDAY BUT WILL
SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY IN THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WHEN WIND CHILLS WILL
GET ABOVE CRITERIA /-15/ AND STAY THERE. IN THE NORTH THOUGH EXPECT
WIND CHILLS TO GET A LITTLE BETTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT...SO FOR NOW WILL RUN THE
WARNING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THIS COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY...BUT
TRYING TO KEEP HEADLINES AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE.
FOR TUESDAY KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST RATHER THAN
GOING WITH WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT SHOW
MUCH WARMING AND THINK CLIMO BIAS IS BUMPING NUMBERS UP TOO MUCH.
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN USED RAW MODEL NUMBERS KEEPING LOWS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH TO
20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. WARMING STARTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND CONSALL HANDLED THIS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
MODELS AGREE THAT LATE NEXT WEEK A SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ALLOWING A MORE WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY. ALSO...FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEEK AND THEN POSSIBLY LIFT BACK NORTH
WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE BY SATURDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING LEVEL WITH ALL THICKNESSES ALL BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES. SO...WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOVE 32 DEGREES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES INCREASE A BIT AGAIN FRIDAY
WITH THE SOUTH LOOKING MORE LIKE RAIN AND THE NORTH RAIN OR SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS NOT THAT GREAT THIS FAR OUT
WITH POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO BE A BIG KEY.
FOR NOW WILL JUST ACCEPT REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRENDS BUT NOT AS MUCH THE EXACT NUMBERS AS
MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH THE FINE DETAILS ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND THUS IMPULSES COMING AND GOING
QUICKLY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
WINDS ARE A MAJOR IMPACT TO OPERATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTS
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD MAY REMAIN ABOVE 40KT
AT TIMES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT IS THROUGH ALL SITES...OR SHOULD BE AT ISSUANCE TIME...AND
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED OF 25+KT WITH GUSTS OF 40+KT
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT...AND GUSTS TOMORROW MAY ONLY BE TO NEAR 25-30KT.
MAY SEE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS BUT TOO TRANSIENT TO
BOTHER WITH INCLUSION.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE COLD ADVECTION TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW HAVE BACKED OFF TO
SCT025 WITH A BKN040 DECK. SREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AND GUSTS WILL END IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-065.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
INZ051>053-060>064-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1124 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
Will be updating the forecast to clear out some of the northern
counties from the wind advisory. All but a hand full of
observations mainly across east central KS have seen winds
gradually diminish. With both the RAP and NAM progging the pressure
gradient to weaken as the night progresses, the wind speeds should
continue a gradual weakening trend overnight and should remain
below advisory criteria.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
Current surface analysis at 20Z shows a prefrontal trough located
across southern NE, while the cold front was not far behind in
central NE. The pressure gradient behind the front is rather
impressive as well as a 20 degree drop in temperature. Given the
current southward speed of the front as well as agreement between
the latest RAP and HRRR it should enter the forecast area around
23Z. By 01Z the front should stretch along a line from Abilene to
Leavenworth, and finally exiting the forecast area around 03Z.
Directly behind this front will be a rapid increase in winds gusting
40 to 50 mph across the entire area. There is the possibility across
the eastern half of the forecast area that gusts reach 50 to 55 mph
directly behind the front. Latest forecast soundings are also
suggesting an isolated rain or snow shower along the front. The
light precip combined with the strong winds could cause brief
periods of low visibilities...no accumulation is expected. Winds
will gradually decrease through the overnight hours still
sustained around 15 to 20 mph at sunrise. Overnight lows reach the
single digits causing wind chills to drop to 15 below zero. Given
the latest forecast trends have will make no changes to the wind and
wind chill advisories. Tomorrow high pressure continues to build
into the region and highs only reach the mid to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
For much of Monday night into Tuesday morning, some of the coldest
air of the season will be holding strong over the area while surface
high pressure dominates the region...centered on the northeast
corner of Kansas. Expect mostly clear skies through the overnight
hours as well, which along with nearly calm winds indicates a very
cold night is in store. It is climatologically very difficult to
fall below zero without snow cover, but it certainly seems possible
on Tuesday morning, especially in northeast KS. Will then have the
base of an upper trough rotate through the area during the day on
Tuesday with some indication of enough moisture and ascent to
support light snow...mainly over central KS. Will have to see how it
plays out as it doesn`t look like much of a precip maker at this
point. Even without precip, could see cloud cover building in after
the very cold morning which may keep daytime temps lower despite
warm advection.
Beyond Tuesday, the upper level flow pattern attempts a gradual
change away from the sharp northerly flow currently in place. A
series of weak disturbances will move through the more zonal flow
pattern, but they are so weak, fast moving, and somewhat lacking of
deep moisture that any precip chances appear very small locally with
each disturbance passing. One such small chance appears to be
maximized on Friday, while another is in store for Sunday. The late
weekend/early next week storm system has better access to deep
moisture with southwesterly upper flow and some Gulf of Mexico
influence but the main question is if the storm track will come
overhead or hold south of the area. Temperatures through the long
term appear fairly stable, and near normal or a bit colder than
normal. Also of note, the short wave troughs in the long term do not
look nearly as windy as the clipper systems of the past two weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
VFR conditions should persist through the day Monday as a dry
arctic airmass builds into the area.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ034-035-037-040-
054>056-058-059.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 4 AM to 11 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ010>012.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1135 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Will be updating shortly to expire the Wind Advisory. Some gusts
35 to 40 mph will be possible for a few more hours mainly over
southeast Missouri and adjacent portions of southern Illinois and
west Kentucky. As for the gridded forecast, skies, winds and
temperatures are reasonable shape, but the dewpoints have just
mixed down below zero over much of the area in the last hour.
Don`t usually mention dewpoints mixing down at sunrise, but this
isn`t an ordinary situation. Will attempt to adjust to the
exceedingly dry air, but all guidance is struggling to catch up to
it as well.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
No changes to headlines are planned with this forecast.
The Arctic cold front has cleared the entire area. A brief period
of gusts 40 to 50 mph developed right behind the front, but winds
have dropped off quite a bit in most locations. The LAMP guidance
is generating near advisory level winds through 12Z over southeast
Missouri generally in a zone from Cape Girardeau to New Madrid,
so will plan on leaving the Wind Advisory alone. The 12Z
expiration should workout well.
The RUC has been doing well with temperature trends behind the
front, so have followed it fairly closely through the day today.
It is never a comfortable feeling when the current temperatures
are considerably higher than the forecast high temperatures, but
that is rightfully the case this morning. Should see temperatures
bottom out around 15Z when they will range from 8 or 9 along I-64,
to 19 or 20 near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. A slight
moderating trend is expected through mid-afternoon, but a band of
fairly solid mid-level clouds will hamper it, especially in the
south. May see more recovery in the north than in the south.
Wind chills will also bottom out around 15Z, but current forecast
wind chills are only expected to range from -6 to -10 in the
Advisory area. Will let the wind chill advisory continue with
slightly higher than preferred wind chills. There is enough
uncertainty in the wind and temperature forecasts to allow a
little buffer in case conditions are worse than currently
forecast. Regardless, wind chills in the north through the
afternoon are not likely to reach above zero, and only single
digits above zero are expected in the south.
For lows tonight, the latest guidance is warmer (relative term)
than the previous forecast. I tried to blend the two, which
results in sub-zero temperatures only along and north of I-64. The
00Z NAM and GFS each show a swath of mid-clouds coming back north
across the southern half of the area overnight, which should help
hold up temperatures there, especially over southeast Missouri.
Some portions of southeast Missouri may not drop into the single
digits.
Wind chills will continue to be below zero through the night in
the north and eventually will get there through the entire area.
Some portions of the I-64 corridor may touch -10 again, but winds
are expected to drop off considerably in that region, so it may
just be cold with actual temperatures dropping to near zero. Will
let the day shift take a look at things before deciding whether
another advisory is warranted for tonight and early Tuesday. Will
issue another SPS to address the extent of the cold conditions
today through Wednesday morning.
Should see good coverage of mid-cloud as the primary large-scale
trough moves through the region Tuesday. With the main low-level
cold pool overhead during the day temperatures will only warm
into the teens. For Tuesday night, the GFS is the slowest to
develop a pressure gradient over the region, and really keeps
winds light or calm through the night. The NAM and ECMWF are more
aggressive with the return of southerly winds across the area
overnight. Decided to lean toward the GFS, and took lows down to
or a bit below MAV numbers. With sub-zero dewpoints across the
area and highs only in the teens, it may not be that far-fetched
for some at least isolated areas to drop close to zero overnight.
The low-level cold pool pushes east of the area Wednesday, and
decent southwest low-level flow develops. This will allow
temperatures to warm up into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with
portions of southeast Missouri maybe actually reaching the
freezing mark.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
By the start of the extended forecast period, the ECMWF/GFS ensemble
means appear to be in reasonable agreement in solutions showing the
wrn U.S. mid/upper trof finally breaking down and eventually being
replaced by a longwave trof. This will put the PAH forecast area
into swrly flow aloft. The smaller scale details are more uncertain,
though at least the 00z GFS/ECMWF operational runs agree fairly well.
Highs are expected to get above freezing through the period.
Early Fri, it appears the PAH forecast area will be in the warm
sector of an approaching sfc low pressure system. "Warm" is
relative, though, as temps and the vertical profile still appear to
be cold enough for snow, and perhaps sleet during the day Fri near
the AR/TN borders. Fri night, a sfc trof of low pressure should
cross our region somewhere in the vicinity, depending on model
solution. Low level warm air advection should keep pcpn liquid for
most of the region, except perhaps the I-64 corridor where
snow/sleet is more probable. An attendant cold front is forecast to
move through the PAH forecast area sometime early Sat, and pcpn may
be snow in the nrn third of the region, transitioning to rain
further south. The latest GFS/ECMWF runs show dry high pressure in
place by Sat night, but the initialization blend still contained
chance PoPs all the way through Sun. This was left in the forecast
at this time because of recent instability in the models. If pcpn
does occur, it may be a wintry mix for roughly the nrn half of the
our region Sat night and Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Northerly
winds at 12-14 knots gusting to 18-24 knots will continue through
00Z, then drop to aob 10 knots for the remainder of the period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
609 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Will be updating shortly to expire the Wind Advisory. Some gusts
35 to 40 mph will be possible for a few more hours mainly over
southeast Missouri and adjacent portions of southern Illinois and
west Kentucky. As for the gridded forecast, skies, winds and
temperatures are reasonable shape, but the dewpoints have just
mixed down below zero over much of the area in the last hour.
Don`t usually mention dewpoints mixing down at sunrise, but this
isn`t an ordinary situation. Will attempt to adjust to the
exceedingly dry air, but all guidance is struggling to catch up to
it as well.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
No changes to headlines are planned with this forecast.
The Arctic cold front has cleared the entire area. A brief period
of gusts 40 to 50 mph developed right behind the front, but winds
have dropped off quite a bit in most locations. The LAMP guidance
is generating near advisory level winds through 12Z over southeast
Missouri generally in a zone from Cape Girardeau to New Madrid,
so will plan on leaving the Wind Advisory alone. The 12Z
expiration should workout well.
The RUC has been doing well with temperature trends behind the
front, so have followed it fairly closely through the day today.
It is never a comfortable feeling when the current temperatures
are considerably higher than the forecast high temperatures, but
that is rightfully the case this morning. Should see temperatures
bottom out around 15Z when they will range from 8 or 9 along I-64,
to 19 or 20 near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. A slight
moderating trend is expected through mid-afternoon, but a band of
fairly solid mid-level clouds will hamper it, especially in the
south. May see more recovery in the north than in the south.
Wind chills will also bottom out around 15Z, but current forecast
wind chills are only expected to range from -6 to -10 in the
Advisory area. Will let the wind chill advisory continue with
slightly higher than preferred wind chills. There is enough
uncertainty in the wind and temperature forecasts to allow a
little buffer in case conditions are worse than currently
forecast. Regardless, wind chills in the north through the
afternoon are not likely to reach above zero, and only single
digits above zero are expected in the south.
For lows tonight, the latest guidance is warmer (relative term)
than the previous forecast. I tried to blend the two, which
results in sub-zero temperatures only along and north of I-64. The
00Z NAM and GFS each show a swath of mid-clouds coming back north
across the southern half of the area overnight, which should help
hold up temperatures there, especially over southeast Missouri.
Some portions of southeast Missouri may not drop into the single
digits.
Wind chills will continue to be below zero through the night in
the north and eventually will get there through the entire area.
Some portions of the I-64 corridor may touch -10 again, but winds
are expected to drop off considerably in that region, so it may
just be cold with actual temperatures dropping to near zero. Will
let the day shift take a look at things before deciding whether
another advisory is warranted for tonight and early Tuesday. Will
issue another SPS to address the extent of the cold conditions
today through Wednesday morning.
Should see good coverage of mid-cloud as the primary large-scale
trough moves through the region Tuesday. With the main low-level
cold pool overhead during the day temperatures will only warm
into the teens. For Tuesday night, the GFS is the slowest to
develop a pressure gradient over the region, and really keeps
winds light or calm through the night. The NAM and ECMWF are more
aggressive with the return of southerly winds across the area
overnight. Decided to lean toward the GFS, and took lows down to
or a bit below MAV numbers. With sub-zero dewpoints across the
area and highs only in the teens, it may not be that far-fetched
for some at least isolated areas to drop close to zero overnight.
The low-level cold pool pushes east of the area Wednesday, and
decent southwest low-level flow develops. This will allow
temperatures to warm up into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with
portions of southeast Missouri maybe actually reaching the
freezing mark.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
By the start of the extended forecast period, the ECMWF/GFS ensemble
means appear to be in reasonable agreement in solutions showing the
wrn U.S. mid/upper trof finally breaking down and eventually being
replaced by a longwave trof. This will put the PAH forecast area
into swrly flow aloft. The smaller scale details are more uncertain,
though at least the 00z GFS/ECMWF operational runs agree fairly well.
Highs are expected to get above freezing through the period.
Early Fri, it appears the PAH forecast area will be in the warm
sector of an approaching sfc low pressure system. "Warm" is
relative, though, as temps and the vertical profile still appear to
be cold enough for snow, and perhaps sleet during the day Fri near
the AR/TN borders. Fri night, a sfc trof of low pressure should
cross our region somewhere in the vicinity, depending on model
solution. Low level warm air advection should keep pcpn liquid for
most of the region, except perhaps the I-64 corridor where
snow/sleet is more probable. An attendant cold front is forecast to
move through the PAH forecast area sometime early Sat, and pcpn may
be snow in the nrn third of the region, transitioning to rain
further south. The latest GFS/ECMWF runs show dry high pressure in
place by Sat night, but the initialization blend still contained
chance PoPs all the way through Sun. This was left in the forecast
at this time because of recent instability in the models. If pcpn
does occur, it may be a wintry mix for roughly the nrn half of the
our region Sat night and Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Latest guidance is keeping mid-level ceilings over the entire
region throughout the period, with little chance of any lower
cloud decks. Very gusty north winds will be strongest at the
beginning of the period for just a few hours and then a gradual
diminishing trend is expected through the remainder of the period.
The strongest winds this morning are likely to be at KCGI where
some gusts up to 35kts will still be possible for a few hours.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
080>087.
MO...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KYZ014-018-
019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
535 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
No changes to headlines are planned with this forecast.
The Arctic cold front has cleared the entire area. A brief period
of gusts 40 to 50 mph developed right behind the front, but winds
have dropped off quite a bit in most locations. The LAMP guidance
is generating near advisory level winds through 12Z over southeast
Missouri generally in a zone from Cape Girardeau to New Madrid,
so will plan on leaving the Wind Advisory alone. The 12Z
expiration should workout well.
The RUC has been doing well with temperature trends behind the
front, so have followed it fairly closely through the day today.
It is never a comfortable feeling when the current temperatures
are considerably higher than the forecast high temperatures, but
that is rightfully the case this morning. Should see temperatures
bottom out around 15Z when they will range from 8 or 9 along I-64,
to 19 or 20 near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. A slight
moderating trend is expected through mid-afternoon, but a band of
fairly solid mid-level clouds will hamper it, especially in the
south. May see more recovery in the north than in the south.
Wind chills will also bottom out around 15Z, but current forecast
wind chills are only expected to range from -6 to -10 in the
Advisory area. Will let the wind chill advisory continue with
slightly higher than preferred wind chills. There is enough
uncertainty in the wind and temperature forecasts to allow a
little buffer in case conditions are worse than currently
forecast. Regardless, wind chills in the north through the
afternoon are not likely to reach above zero, and only single
digits above zero are expected in the south.
For lows tonight, the latest guidance is warmer (relative term)
than the previous forecast. I tried to blend the two, which
results in sub-zero temperatures only along and north of I-64. The
00Z NAM and GFS each show a swath of mid-clouds coming back north
across the southern half of the area overnight, which should help
hold up temperatures there, especially over southeast Missouri.
Some portions of southeast Missouri may not drop into the single
digits.
Wind chills will continue to be below zero through the night in
the north and eventually will get there through the entire area.
Some portions of the I-64 corridor may touch -10 again, but winds
are expected to drop off considerably in that region, so it may
just be cold with actual temperatures dropping to near zero. Will
let the day shift take a look at things before deciding whether
another advisory is warranted for tonight and early Tuesday. Will
issue another SPS to address the extent of the cold conditions
today through Wednesday morning.
Should see good coverage of mid-cloud as the primary large-scale
trough moves through the region Tuesday. With the main low-level
cold pool overhead during the day temperatures will only warm
into the teens. For Tuesday night, the GFS is the slowest to
develop a pressure gradient over the region, and really keeps
winds light or calm through the night. The NAM and ECMWF are more
aggressive with the return of southerly winds across the area
overnight. Decided to lean toward the GFS, and took lows down to
or a bit below MAV numbers. With sub-zero dewpoints across the
area and highs only in the teens, it may not be that far-fetched
for some at least isolated areas to drop close to zero overnight.
The low-level cold pool pushes east of the area Wednesday, and
decent southwest low-level flow develops. This will allow
temperatures to warm up into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with
portions of southeast Missouri maybe actually reaching the
freezing mark.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
By the start of the extended forecast period, the ECMWF/GFS ensemble
means appear to be in reasonable agreement in solutions showing the
wrn U.S. mid/upper trof finally breaking down and eventually being
replaced by a longwave trof. This will put the PAH forecast area
into swrly flow aloft. The smaller scale details are more uncertain,
though at least the 00z GFS/ECMWF operational runs agree fairly well.
Highs are expected to get above freezing through the period.
Early Fri, it appears the PAH forecast area will be in the warm
sector of an approaching sfc low pressure system. "Warm" is
relative, though, as temps and the vertical profile still appear to
be cold enough for snow, and perhaps sleet during the day Fri near
the AR/TN borders. Fri night, a sfc trof of low pressure should
cross our region somewhere in the vicinity, depending on model
solution. Low level warm air advection should keep pcpn liquid for
most of the region, except perhaps the I-64 corridor where
snow/sleet is more probable. An attendant cold front is forecast to
move through the PAH forecast area sometime early Sat, and pcpn may
be snow in the nrn third of the region, transitioning to rain
further south. The latest GFS/ECMWF runs show dry high pressure in
place by Sat night, but the initialization blend still contained
chance PoPs all the way through Sun. This was left in the forecast
at this time because of recent instability in the models. If pcpn
does occur, it may be a wintry mix for roughly the nrn half of the
our region Sat night and Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Latest guidance is keeping mid-level ceilings over the entire
region throughout the period, with little chance of any lower
cloud decks. Very gusty north winds will be strongest at the
beginning of the period for just a few hours and then a gradual
diminishing trend is expected through the remainder of the period.
The strongest winds this morning are likely to be at KCGI where
some gusts up to 35kts will still be possible for a few hours.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
080>087.
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR KYZ001>022.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KYZ014-018-
019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
359 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
No changes to headlines are planned with this forecast.
The Arctic cold front has cleared the entire area. A brief period
of gusts 40 to 50 mph developed right behind the front, but winds
have dropped off quite a bit in most locations. The LAMP guidance
is generating near advisory level winds through 12Z over southeast
Missouri generally in a zone from Cape Girardeau to New Madrid,
so will plan on leaving the Wind Advisory alone. The 12Z
expiration should workout well.
The RUC has been doing well with temperature trends behind the
front, so have followed it fairly closely through the day today.
It is never a comfortable feeling when the current temperatures
are considerably higher than the forecast high temperatures, but
that is rightfully the case this morning. Should see temperatures
bottom out around 15Z when they will range from 8 or 9 along I-64,
to 19 or 20 near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. A slight
moderating trend is expected through mid-afternoon, but a band of
fairly solid mid-level clouds will hamper it, especially in the
south. May see more recovery in the north than in the south.
Wind chills will also bottom out around 15Z, but current forecast
wind chills are only expected to range from -6 to -10 in the
Advisory area. Will let the wind chill advisory continue with
slightly higher than preferred wind chills. There is enough
uncertainty in the wind and temperature forecasts to allow a
little buffer in case conditions are worse than currently
forecast. Regardless, wind chills in the north through the
afternoon are not likely to reach above zero, and only single
digits above zero are expected in the south.
For lows tonight, the latest guidance is warmer (relative term)
than the previous forecast. I tried to blend the two, which
results in sub-zero temperatures only along and north of I-64. The
00Z NAM and GFS each show a swath of mid-clouds coming back north
across the southern half of the area overnight, which should help
hold up temperatures there, especially over southeast Missouri.
Some portions of southeast Missouri may not drop into the single
digits.
Wind chills will continue to be below zero through the night in
the north and eventually will get there through the entire area.
Some portions of the I-64 corridor may touch -10 again, but winds
are expected to drop off considerably in that region, so it may
just be cold with actual temperatures dropping to near zero. Will
let the day shift take a look at things before deciding whether
another advisory is warranted for tonight and early Tuesday. Will
issue another SPS to address the extent of the cold conditions
today through Wednesday morning.
Should see good coverage of mid-cloud as the primary large-scale
trough moves through the region Tuesday. With the main low-level
cold pool overhead during the day temperatures will only warm
into the teens. For Tuesday night, the GFS is the slowest to
develop a pressure gradient over the region, and really keeps
winds light or calm through the night. The NAM and ECMWF are more
aggressive with the return of southerly winds across the area
overnight. Decided to lean toward the GFS, and took lows down to
or a bit below MAV numbers. With sub-zero dewpoints across the
area and highs only in the teens, it may not be that far-fetched
for some at least isolated areas to drop close to zero overnight.
The low-level cold pool pushes east of the area Wednesday, and
decent southwest low-level flow develops. This will allow
temperatures to warm up into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with
portions of southeast Missouri maybe actually reaching the
freezing mark.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
By the start of the extended forecast period, the ECMWF/GFS ensemble
means appear to be in reasonable agreement in solutions showing the
wrn U.S. mid/upper trof finally breaking down and eventually being
replaced by a longwave trof. This will put the PAH forecast area
into swrly flow aloft. The smaller scale details are more uncertain,
though at least the 00z GFS/ECMWF operational runs agree fairly well.
Highs are expected to get above freezing through the period.
Early Fri, it appears the PAH forecast area will be in the warm
sector of an approaching sfc low pressure system. "Warm" is
relative, though, as temps and the vertical profile still appear to
be cold enough for snow, and perhaps sleet during the day Fri near
the AR/TN borders. Fri night, a sfc trof of low pressure should
cross our region somewhere in the vicinity, depending on model
solution. Low level warm air advection should keep pcpn liquid for
most of the region, except perhaps the I-64 corridor where
snow/sleet is more probable. An attendant cold front is forecast to
move through the PAH forecast area sometime early Sat, and pcpn may
be snow in the nrn third of the region, transitioning to rain
further south. The latest GFS/ECMWF runs show dry high pressure in
place by Sat night, but the initialization blend still contained
chance PoPs all the way through Sun. This was left in the forecast
at this time because of recent instability in the models. If pcpn
does occur, it may be a wintry mix for roughly the nrn half of the
our region Sat night and Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
By the effective time of the 06z Monday TAF issuance, all of the
TAF locations will see the strong northwest winds in excess of 30
knots sustained and around 45 knot gusts. There will be a short
period behind the front where post frontal ceilings will fall into
the 2-2.5kft AGL range before lifting back to VFR category ceilings.
Transitioned remainder of forecast to reflect gradual decrease in
wind speeds.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
080>087.
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR KYZ001>022.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KYZ014-018-
019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
514 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF
22Z. COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PLUNGE EASTWARD ON GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS DURING THE LAST HOUR HAVE
BEEN OVER 30 KTS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WILL STILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.
LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL RUNS BRING RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DESPITE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THROUGH
TUESDAY.
PREV DISC...COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND IS GENERALLY ALONG A CARIBOU/FARMINGTON/CONCORD LINE. WE WILL
SEE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE IT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUING OVER THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH PW VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR STATION 50 YR MINIMUMS.
THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL INHIBIT THE COOLING PROCESSES
SOMEWHAT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -30 F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN EXPECTING LOWS NEAR ZERO WITH WIND
CHILLS AROUND -5 F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW WILL BE COLD WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. WSW WILL BE GUSTY BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THEY WILL BE
THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
INTO THE TEENS SOUTH IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AIRMASS WILL
HAVE MODERATED SLIGHTLY BUT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
QUITE AS COLD ACROSS THE NORTH. STILL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAN L/WV TROF POSITION OVER THE GT LAKES WILL BE VERY SLOWLY
RETROGRADING LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS IN
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A MORE
ZONAL WSWLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH ONLY MINOR S/WVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. THE DEEP
ARCTIC AMS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA WILL RETREAT AND REMAIN OVER
CANADA. WITH THIS PATTERN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED.
STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND MODEL GUID FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND REMAIN GUSTY WELL AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXCEPT
PSBLY MVFR IN SCT SNW SHWRS THU NIGHT OR FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS. THE
OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS AND OUTER
WATERS.
LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS. THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE E ALLOWING INCREASING S SW FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WITH
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. A COLD FNT MOVES THRU FRIDAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING AT SCA LEVELS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MEZ007>009.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ012-013.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR NHZ001>003.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NHZ004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1235 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TODAY AND DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1225L: STRONG WAA AHEAD OF LOW PASSING JUST NW OF THE AREA
HAS PUSHED MILD ABV FREEZING SFC TEMPS TO A NE-SW LINE FROM KHUL
TO JUST NW OF KBGR... HAVE UPDATED HRLY TEMPS AND WX GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. HAVE ALSO DROPPED THE WNTR WX
ADV FOR ZNS 15>17 AND 11/32 AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABV FREEZING AND
NO LONGER A THREAT OF FZRA...
UPDATE 0930L: SNOW ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ATTM AS SFC LOW
PRES OVR SRN QUEBEC LIFTS NEWRD TOWARD THE AREA... STRONG WAA ON
THE E SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND UP ACROSS OUR AREA RESULTING IN BIG
TEMP DIFFS W/ TEMPS RANGING FROM JUST BLO ZERO FAR N TO THE LOWER
40S ON THE COAST. GETTING SOME COLD AIR DAMMING INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COAST AND THIS LEADING TO SOME PATCHY LGT FZRA BEING RPTD AT
KBGR LAST HR. HAVE UPDATE OUR GRIDS TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF
SOME LGT FZRA INTERIOR DOWNEAST THRU OUR CENTRAL ZNS TIL AROUND
NOON AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED
TRENDS. ANY ICE ACCUMS SHOULD BE LGT (<.05) BUT WILL ISSUE AN ADV
NONETHELESS FOR ZNS 15>17 AND 11/31/32.
7AM UPDATE...
REDUCED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON WARM ADVECTION. GOOD BANDING STILL APPEARS TO BE
LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING IN NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A
BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALL IN NORTHERN ZONES AS IT CROSSES.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC
WILL BRING A CLIPPER TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATE A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL FEATURE
OVERRUNNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AS A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER WITH A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 80 KT WINDS NEAR H850 BY
MIDDAY. THIS LLJ WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM SUBZERO READINGS IN
THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET.
IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER OF MAINE. UPSLOPE FACTORS
WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW IN ZONE 10 AND GREENVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MONTICELLO
AND MARS HILL. AM FAVORING THE REGIONAL GEMS AND NAM...AS WELL AS
THE HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEV ELOPEMENT IN NE MAINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDING STRETCHING FROM NE AROOSTOOK
TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE
ENTRANCE AREA OF A 170 KT UPPER JET WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW RATES MAY REACH OVER AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BANDING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE EVENT ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT OF ALL
THIS IS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1 THROUGH 6 AND ZONE 10 INTO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN NE AROOSTOOK.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE 31 IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND ZONE 11 IN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR INCLUSION TO THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 2 APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS BANGOR...THE OVERRUNNING SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD EQUATE
TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON THEIR
WAY TO THE UPPER 30S
A NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE
NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOW SINGLE DIGITS
BY DAYBREAK DOWN EAST.&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE END OF JANUARY. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN TUE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR WED EVENING...BUT
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE
THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION THU MORNING AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE MERCURY
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU PM. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
IS SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S NORTH AND M/U 20S DOWNEAST.
THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS A WEAK WAVE THAT
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE CANADIAN AND
LATEST 00Z/27TH ECMWF HAVE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN ONLY HAS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FROM ITS
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR THIS MORNING...LIFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL WITH VIS
IN SNOW DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 50KT AT FL020...BECOMING
SW LATER IN THE DAY. VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT
POSSIBLY FVE DUE TO MVFR CIGS.
SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRI. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY LATE WED IN ISO
-SHSN AND AGAIN FRI AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISO TO
SCT -SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SEAS
REACHING AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN SCA
THIS EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE IN WEST FLOW THAT WILL
TURN MORE SW TUE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUB ADVISORY
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING OVER THE WATERS THU.
ANOTHER SCA LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001>006-010-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/CB
MARINE...KHW/MCW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
957 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TODAY AND DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0930L: SNOW ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ATTM AS SFC LOW
PRES OVR SRN QUEBEC LIFTS NEWRD TOWARD THE AREA... STRONG WAA ON
THE E SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND UP ACROSS OUR AREA RESULTING IN BIG
TEMP DIFFS W/ TEMPS RANGING FROM JUST BLO ZERO FAR N TO THE LOWER
40S ON THE COAST. GETTING SOME COLD AIR DAMMING INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COAST AND THIS LEADING TO SOME PATCHY LGT FZRA BEING RPTD AT
KBGR LAST HR. HAVE UPDATE OUR GRIDS TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF
SOME LGT FZRA INTERIOR DOWNEAST THRU OUR CENTRAL ZNS TIL AROUND
NOON AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED
TRENDS. ANY ICE ACCUMS SHOULD BE LGT (<.05) BUT WILL ISSUE AN ADV
NONETHELESS FOR ZNS 15>17 AND 11/31/32.
7AM UPDATE...
REDUCED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON WARM ADVECTION. GOOD BANDING STILL APPEARS TO BE
LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING IN NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A
BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALL IN NORTHERN ZONES AS IT CROSSES.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC
WILL BRING A CLIPPER TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATE A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL FEATURE
OVERRUNNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AS A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER WITH A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 80 KT WINDS NEAR H850 BY
MIDDAY. THIS LLJ WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM SUBZERO READINGS IN
THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET.
IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER OF MAINE. UPSLOPE FACTORS
WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW IN ZONE 10 AND GREENVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MONTICELLO
AND MARS HILL. AM FAVORING THE REGIONAL GEMS AND NAM...AS WELL AS
THE HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEV ELOPEMENT IN NE MAINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDING STRETCHING FROM NE AROOSTOOK
TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE
ENTRANCE AREA OF A 170 KT UPPER JET WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW RATES MAY REACH OVER AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BANDING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE EVENT ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT OF ALL
THIS IS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1 THROUGH 6 AND ZONE 10 INTO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN NE AROOSTOOK.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE 31 IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND ZONE 11 IN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR INCLUSION TO THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 2 APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS BANGOR...THE OVERRUNNING SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD EQUATE
TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON THEIR
WAY TO THE UPPER 30S
A NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE
NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOW SINGLE DIGITS
BY DAYBREAK DOWN EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE END OF JANUARY. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN TUE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR WED EVENING...BUT
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE
THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION THU MORNING AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE MERCURY
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU PM. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
IS SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S NORTH AND M/U 20S DOWNEAST.
THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS A WEAK WAVE THAT
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE CANADIAN AND
LATEST 00Z/27TH ECMWF HAVE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN ONLY HAS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FROM ITS
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR THIS MORNING...LIFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL WITH VIS
IN SNOW DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 50KT AT FL020...BECOMING
SW LATER IN THE DAY. VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT
POSSIBLY FVE DUE TO MVFR CIGS.
SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRI. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY LATE WED IN ISO
-SHSN AND AGAIN FRI AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISO TO
SCT -SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SEAS
REACHING AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN SCA
THIS EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE IN WEST FLOW THAT WILL
TURN MORE SW TUE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUB ADVISORY
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING OVER THE WATERS THU.
ANOTHER SCA LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ015>017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/CB
MARINE...KHW/MCW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
655 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TODAY AND DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE...
REDUCED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON WARM ADVECTION. GOOD BANDING STILL APPEARS TO BE
LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING IN NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A
BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALL IN NORTHERN ZONES AS IT CROSSES.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC
WILL BRING A CLIPPER TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATE A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL FEATURE
OVERRUNNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AS A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER WITH A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 80 KT WINDS NEAR H850 BY
MIDDAY. THIS LLJ WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM SUBZERO READINGS IN
THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET.
IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER OF MAINE. UPSLOPE FACTORS
WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW IN ZONE 10 AND GREENVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MONTICELLO
AND MARS HILL. AM FAVORING THE REGIONAL GEMS AND NAM...AS WELL AS
THE HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEV ELOPEMENT IN NE MAINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDING STRETCHING FROM NE AROOSTOOK
TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE
ENTRANCE AREA OF A 170 KT UPPER JET WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW RATES MAY REACH OVER AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BANDING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE EVENT ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT OF ALL
THIS IS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1 THROUGH 6 AND ZONE 10 INTO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN NE AROOSTOOK.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE 31 IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND ZONE 11 IN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR INCLUSION TO THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 2 APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS BANGOR...THE OVERRUNNING SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD EQUATE
TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON THEIR
WAY TO THE UPPER 30S
A NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE
NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOW SINGLE DIGITS
BY DAYBREAK DOWN EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE END OF JANUARY. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN TUE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR WED EVENING...BUT
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE
THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION THU MORNING AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE MERCURY
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU PM. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
IS SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S NORTH AND M/U 20S DOWNEAST.
THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS A WEAK WAVE THAT
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE CANADIAN AND
LATEST 00Z/27TH ECMWF HAVE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN ONLY HAS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FROM ITS
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR THIS MORNING...LIFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL WITH VIS
IN SNOW DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 50KT AT FL020...BECOMING
SW LATER IN THE DAY. VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT
POSSIBLY FVE DUE TO MVFR CIGS.
SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRI. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY LATE WED IN ISO
-SHSN AND AGAIN FRI AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISO TO
SCT -SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SEAS
REACHING AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN SCA
THIS EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE IN WEST FLOW THAT WILL
TURN MORE SW TUE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUB ADVISORY
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING OVER THE WATERS THU.
ANOTHER SCA LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
404 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TODAY AND DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC
WILL BRING A CLIPPER TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATE A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL FEATURE
OVERRUNNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AS A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER WITH A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 80 KT WINDS NEAR H850 BY
MIDDAY. THIS LLJ WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM SUBZERO READINGS IN
THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET.
IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER OF MAINE. UPSLOPE FACTORS
WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW IN ZONE 10 AND GREENVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MONTICELLO
AND MARS HILL. AM FAVORING THE REGIONAL GEMS AND NAM...AS WELL AS
THE HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEV ELOPEMENT IN NE MAINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDING STRETCHING FROM NE AROOSTOOK
TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE
ENTRANCE AREA OF A 170 KT UPPER JET WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW RATES MAY REACH OVER AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BANDING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE EVENT ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT OF ALL
THIS IS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1 THROUGH 6 AND ZONE 10 INTO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN NE AROOSTOOK.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE 31 IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND ZONE 11 IN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR INCLUSION TO THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 2 APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS BANGOR...THE OVERRUNNING SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD EQUATE
TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON THEIR
WAY TO THE UPPER 30S
A NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE
NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOW SINGLE DIGITS
BY DAYBREAK DOWN EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE END OF JANUARY. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN TUE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR WED EVENING...BUT
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE
THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION THU MORNING AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE MERCURY
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU PM. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
IS SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S NORTH AND M/U 20S DOWNEAST.
THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS A WEAK WAVE THAT
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE CANADIAN AND
LATEST 00Z/27TH ECMWF HAVE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN ONLY HAS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FROM ITS
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR THIS MORNING...LIFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL WITH VIS
IN SNOW DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 50KT AT FL020...BECOMING
SW LATER IN THE DAY. VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT
POSSIBLY FVE DUE TO MVFR CIGS.
SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRI. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY LATE WED IN ISO
-SHSN AND AGAIN FRI AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISO TO
SCT -SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SEAS
REACHING AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN SCA
THIS EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE IN WEST FLOW THAT WILL
TURN MORE SW TUE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUB ADVISORY
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING OVER THE WATERS THU.
ANOTHER SCA LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1020 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM...FCST/WARNINGS/ADVSYS LUK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
LATEST RDR/SAT PIX/SFC OBS INDICATING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVNG
UP THRU ERN/NE NC AND SE VA...WITH GENERALLY LGT SNOW FALLING N
AND W OF A CAMBRIDGE TO PETERSBURG TO SOUTH HILL LINE. LATEST RUC
SHOWS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER OVER EXTRM
SE VA INTO NE AND ERN NC. THE RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS STRONG
FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVR THIS SAME AREA INTO VERY EARLY WED
MORNG...AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH ONE INCH PER HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH IDEAL FOR SNOW...IS MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SFC LATE THIS AFTN. DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL IN THE RANGE OF 10 ABOVE ZERO SE TO 10 BELOW ZERO NW. WEAK
RADAR ECHO RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS AFTN AS THE
COASTAL LOW SHIFTS TO A LOCATION ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS. RIGHT NOW IT IS EASIER TO SEE THE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
VIA THE CC AND ZDR DUAL POL PRODUCTS. DURING THIS EVENING A
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN
AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL GET UNDER WAY. THIS WILL ALL WORK
TOGETHER TO ENHANCE LIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION RATES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CREATING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER WARM NOSE BTWN 850-750 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
JUST ENOUGH MELTING ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF SLEET OR A SLEET/SNOW
MIX TO OCCUR THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY IN NE NC CLOSER TO THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET MIX WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANGE TO SLEET HAS LOWERED SNOW RATIOS AND
STORM TOTAL SNOW ESTIMATES BY SEVERAL INCHES IN THE FAR SRN
PORTIONS OF NE NC...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TOTALS IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING WILL STILL AVERAGE OUT TO 6 TO 12 INCHES (JUST THE
DISTRIBUTION HAS CHANGED). AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
GUST UP TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
LATE WED MORNING/EARLY WED AFTN. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT THIS
EVENING AS SNOW QUICKLY ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS WITHIN THE AREAS
UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES/STORM WARNINGS. POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ON WED WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT INTO WED MORNING/AFTN.
ASIDE FROM A DELAYED START TO SNOWFALL TODAY...THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO THE ONGOING WINTER HEADLINES. PORTIONS OF THE NRN
NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE
WERE UPGRADED FROM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. ALSO...CAROLINE AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES WERE ADDED TO
ONGOING WINTER ADVISORY HEADLINES. PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING TEXT PRODUCT (WBCWSWAKQ) FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS
REGARDING STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TIMING...AND IMPACTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
CLEARING SKIES ON WED WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WED NIGHT AS
RECENT SNOWFALL AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TWD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO BY THU MORNING (10-15
DEGREES IMMEDIATE COAST). TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY AS
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO GRADUALLY ADVECTS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING SNOWPACK MAY PREVENT
TEMPS FROM WARMING TOO MUCH ON THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RELAXATION OF THE VERY COLD PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WKND...THOUGH
CONDS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WK. WARM FRONT
LIFT N OF THE RGN FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES TRACKS TO THE ERN
LAKES. TRAILING CDFNT FOLLOWS INTO/ACRS THE FA SUN BRINGING INCRSD
PCPN CHCS (RA). GRADUAL DRYING (THOUGH CLDNS MAY HANG ON OVR SRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA)/SEASONABLE WX LT SUN INTO MON...THEN
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCRS/RETURN BY TUE AS NEXT STM SYS EJECTS FM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW OVER NE NC EXTENDING NORTH TO NORTHERN VA. ACCUM SO FAR HAVE
GENERALLY RANGED FROM 2-4 INCHES ACROSS NC AND SE VA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. WINDS ARE N 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTY...AND VSBY
1/2-3 MI IN HEAVIER PRECIP.
SNOWFALL RATES INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFFSHORE. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/2SM TO 1SM
(POSSIBLY 1/4SM AT TIMES) SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NE NC AND
FAR SE VA DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS KECG/KORF/KPHF.
NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR
SE VA/NE NC COAST DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL COME INTO
EFFECT FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW OFF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVING NE. EXPECT WINDS TO AVG 20-25
KT GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS BY LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST
WINDS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT
(HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN THE CWF/MWW BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREQUENT
GUSTS TO STAYED W/ SCA HEADLINES RATHER THAN GALE WARNINGS). SEAS
WILL AVG 5-6 FT N TO 6-9 FT S AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS SUBSIDE
TO15-20 KT OR LESS BY WED AFTN...BUT SEAS WILL TEND TO STAY UP AT
5 FT OR GREATER OUT 20 NM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN OR EVENING SO
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
GIVEN THE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN. SNOW (MODERATE TO HEAVY TIMES) WILL ADD TO
REDUCED VSBYS TONIGHT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER WED NIGHT-FRI WITH
IMPROVING/SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE N WINDS BECOME E/SE THURSDAY
AFTN AND THEN SSW ON FRI. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 15 KT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ023>025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021-
022.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012>014-
030.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
031-032-102.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ078-
084>094-096-099-100.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ095-097-
098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ060-
063>068-070>077-079>083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
633-635>638-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...JDM/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
852 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM...FCST/WARNINGS/ADVSYS LUK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
LATEST RDR/SAT PIX/SFC OBS INDICATING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVNG
UP THRU ERN/NE NC AND SE VA...WITH GENERALLY LGT SNOW FALLING N
AND W OF A CAMBRIDGE TO PETERSBURG TO SOUTH HILL LINE. LATEST RUC
SHOWS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER OVER EXTRM
SE VA INTO NE AND ERN NC. THE RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS STRONG
FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVR THIS SAME AREA INTO VERY EARLY WED
MORNG...AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH ONE INCH PER HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH IDEAL FOR SNOW...IS MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SFC LATE THIS AFTN. DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL IN THE RANGE OF 10 ABOVE ZERO SE TO 10 BELOW ZERO NW. WEAK
RADAR ECHO RETURNS ARE BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS AFTN AS THE
COASTAL LOW SHIFTS TO A LOCATION ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS. RIGHT NOW IT IS EASIER TO SEE THE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
VIA THE CC AND ZDR DUAL POL PRODUCTS. DURING THIS EVENING A
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN
AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL GET UNDER WAY. THIS WILL ALL WORK
TOGETHER TO ENHANCE LIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION RATES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CREATING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER WARM NOSE BTWN 850-750 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
JUST ENOUGH MELTING ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF SLEET OR A SLEET/SNOW
MIX TO OCCUR THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY IN NE NC CLOSER TO THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET MIX WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE CHANGE TO SLEET HAS LOWERED SNOW RATIOS AND
STORM TOTAL SNOW ESTIMATES BY SEVERAL INCHES IN THE FAR SRN
PORTIONS OF NE NC...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TOTALS IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING WILL STILL AVERAGE OUT TO 6 TO 12 INCHES (JUST THE
DISTRIBUTION HAS CHANGED). AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
GUST UP TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
LATE WED MORNING/EARLY WED AFTN. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT THIS
EVENING AS SNOW QUICKLY ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS WITHIN THE AREAS
UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES/STORM WARNINGS. POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ON WED WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT INTO WED MORNING/AFTN.
ASIDE FROM A DELAYED START TO SNOWFALL TODAY...THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO THE ONGOING WINTER HEADLINES. PORTIONS OF THE NRN
NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE
WERE UPGRADED FROM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. ALSO...CAROLINE AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES WERE ADDED TO
ONGOING WINTER ADVISORY HEADLINES. PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING TEXT PRODUCT (WBCWSWAKQ) FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS
REGARDING STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TIMING...AND IMPACTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
CLEARING SKIES ON WED WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WED NIGHT AS
RECENT SNOWFALL AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TWD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO BY THU MORNING (10-15
DEGREES IMMEDIATE COAST). TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY AS
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO GRADUALLY ADVECTS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING SNOWPACK MAY PREVENT
TEMPS FROM WARMING TOO MUCH ON THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RELAXATION OF THE VERY COLD PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WKND...THOUGH
CONDS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WK. WARM FRONT
LIFT N OF THE RGN FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES TRACKS TO THE ERN
LAKES. TRAILING CDFNT FOLLOWS INTO/ACRS THE FA SUN BRINGING INCRSD
PCPN CHCS (RA). GRADUAL DRYING (THOUGH CLDNS MAY HANG ON OVR SRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA)/SEASONABLE WX LT SUN INTO MON...THEN
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCRS/RETURN BY TUE AS NEXT STM SYS EJECTS FM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS (OVC SKIES 5-7K FT) PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. NLY WINDS INLAND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20 KT ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RESULTING IN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON AND IFR BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NE NC...INCLUDING KECG. EXPECT PL TO BE THE PREDOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE FOR NE NC...PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND SNOW WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING.
SNOWFALL RATES INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE.
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/2SM TO 1SM (POSSIBLY
1/4SM AT TIMES) SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NE NC AND FAR SE VA
DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS KECG/KORF/KPHF. NORTH
WINDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...PRODUCING AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE
NC COAST DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL COME INTO
EFFECT FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW OFF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVING NE. EXPECT WINDS TO AVG 20-25
KT GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS BY LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST
WINDS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT
(HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN THE CWF/MWW BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREQUENT
GUSTS TO STAYED W/ SCA HEADLINES RATHER THAN GALE WARNINGS). SEAS
WILL AVG 5-6 FT N TO 6-9 FT S AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS SUBSIDE
TO15-20 KT OR LESS BY WED AFTN...BUT SEAS WILL TEND TO STAY UP AT
5 FT OR GREATER OUT 20 NM THROUGH THE LATE AFTN OR EVENING SO
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
GIVEN THE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN. SNOW (MODERATE TO HEAVY TIMES) WILL ADD TO
REDUCED VSBYS TONIGHT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER WED NIGHT-FRI WITH
IMPROVING/SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE N WINDS BECOME E/SE THURSDAY
AFTN AND THEN SSW ON FRI. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 15 KT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ023>025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021-
022.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012>014-
030.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
031-032-102.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ078-
084>094-096-099-100.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ095-097-
098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ060-
063>068-070>077-079>083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
635>637-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...JDM/SAM
MARINE...JDM/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
706 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH A
BROAD DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NAMERICA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN
THE AROUND -25C...LES CONTINUES OFF MAINLY NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A W-WSW WIND FLOW WHERE VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST
MODIS IMAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF OPEN WATER. MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE ICE-COVERED EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A
NARROW PORTION JUST WEST OF THE KEWEENAW ALTHOUGH WAA MID-HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING
DOWN FM NRN ONTARIO MAKING IT HARDER TO DISCERN ICE COVERAGE OVER
WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KCMX HAS
REPORTED OCCASIONAL VSBY OF 1/2SM OR LOWER...VSBY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW BASED ON WEBCAMS. THUS...DECIDED TO CANCEL LAKE
EFFECT ADVISORY ON MORNING UPDATE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN UP TO
NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AS NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WIND
CHILLS AT KCMX ARE STILL SOLIDLY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY (-30F OR
LOWER) WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25F
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS.
AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL KEEP
CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE
ADDING BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES...SO COUNTIES FROM BARAGA
AND IRON WESTWARD WILL BE IN ADVISORIES THROUGH 16Z WED. PORTIONS OF
WRN MQT COUNTY COULD REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
BUT MOST OF THE COUNTY SHOULD STAY ABV -25F SO DECIDED AGAINST
HEADLINE THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER
INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE OR JUST ABV ADVISORY CRITERIA.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT A BIG FALL
IN TEMPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SW CWA NEAR THE WI BDR WHERE LOWS COULD
APPROACH -12F IN A FEW SPOTS.
RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE IN
THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FROM THE RECENT BELOW ZERO HIGHS...NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY
AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD
BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
OUR STREAK OF DAYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONTINUES...WITH TODAY BEING
THE 54TH DAY IN A ROW. LOOKING AT LONG TERM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA...NONE OF THE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND ONLY A RUN OR TWO NEAR DAY 15. THUS...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL WE WILL BE NEARING THE RECORD OF 72 DAYS (SET IN
1978-1979) WHEN WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z THURSDAY AND
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO JAMES BAY BY 18Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT AND DEPART THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
FRONT (WHICH AFFECTS MUCH OF THE U.P.) WILL BE A LITTLE MOISTURE
STARVED AND WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY NEAR EACH OTHER THERE COULD
BE AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TOWARDS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING
OVER THE WEST HALF...BUT IF THE INTENSITY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (MUCH OF THE
FORCING/CLOUD IN THE DGZ).
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P.
AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -16C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. IN
ADDITION...WITH ICE COVER BUILDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT THAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IS
UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND LOW
END DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND
SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN
THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. 12Z
ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE GFS IS STARTING TO COME AROUND
TO IT. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT
IDEA. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
AND WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE
SLIGHT POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.
BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERLY WIND BELTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW...DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
THIS FCST PERIOD AT KCMX...FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH A PASSING
DISTURBANCE...WINDS WILL VEER SOME TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN -SHSN/BLSN THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF DISTURBANCE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
RAPIDLY EXPANDING ICE COVER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT
-SHSN INTENSITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES
THIS EVENING WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BLO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS
ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. EXPECT WSW GALES TO
40 KTS OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AS WINDS AGAIN SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-010-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263-
264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EDGE OF EXPANSIVE POLAR
VORTEX CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR OR SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. CORE OF THE
COLDEST ARCTIC AIR MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C. WITH BEST FORCING ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE
NOW EAST OF THE CWA...LES BANDS ON RADAR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE
GENERALLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND BECOME MORE SPACED APART DUE TO
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR UPSTREAM.
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE
ERN SHORELINE PRODUCING OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. WIND CHILLS CONTINUE IN THE -23 TO -30F RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS TO FALL TO THE -30F TO -35F RANGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK WESTERLY BY LATE EVENING...FOCUSING LES
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE ERN SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION COULD
ENHANCED LES TONIGHT OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE AREAS WHERE LES ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EAST AND INTO TUE MORNING OVER THE
KEWEENAW. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE AND LACK OF A DGZ.
HOWEVER...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING VSBY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WHERE LES IS OCCURRING.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD EXPECT
GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE BECAUSE A STEADY WIND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED MORE OVER THE AREA
INSTEAD OF OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN
THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT THAT WON`T BE THE CASE TONIGHT.
OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
ALONG THE WRN INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL TO -30 TO -45F OVER MUCH OF AREA AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL WARRANT CONTINUED WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FAR EAST CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR.
WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK WEST OR WSW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LES
OFFSHORE OF THE ERN SHORELINE AREAS BY EARLY TUE AND GRADUALLY PUSH
LES INTO MAINLY KEWEENAW COUNTY OVER THE NW BY TUE AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR HIGHS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY
AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEN...THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT
OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND
LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL
THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SNOW BELTS TO
START TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. BUT AS THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE DETRIMENTAL AFFECTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH 875MB TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND -24C...THE WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER WESTERLY
WINDS WILL END UP LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE
LAKE EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH...A FAIRLY NICE BUT COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER MOVING
EAST THROUGH ONTARIO) TO SWEEP ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL SINK...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD/FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ...SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW
RATIOS TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE IF SNOW
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A LIGHT DUSTING TO AN INCH IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P.
AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -17C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS FOR THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE
EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE
12Z GFS FAILS TO SHOW A LOW. WAS HOPING THAT EACH MODELS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD LEAD TO SOME SUPPORT IN EITHER
DIRECTION...BUT THEY ALL WERE AROUND 50/50 ON WHETHER A LOW WILL
OCCUR. THUS...WILL FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND BELTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY WRLY WIND FLOW OR SPECIFICALLY
KCMX. HOWEVER...GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL STILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO MVFR AT KSAW AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
KIWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT KCMX...EXPECT GENERALLY PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE W THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...RESULTING IN MORE VIS
RESTRICTION FROM BLSN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST
WED MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES TO
40 KTS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TO 35 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW GALES TO 35 KT
WED NIGHT WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THU INTO FRI MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMES BAY. CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS NOW
SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -31C
850MB TEMPS INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -33C OVER FAR NE
MN. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...MESOLOW...MDT/HVY LES
AND STRONG WINDS MOVED ONSHORE IN ALGER COUNTY LAST NIGHT AS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ALGER
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SHIFTING STEADILY E AS WINDS
SLOWLY BACK. THESE MAIN LES BANDS ARE NOW EAST OF MUNISING. THERE
HASN`T BEEN MUCH LES WEST OF THESE HEAVIER LES BANDS OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN ALLOWED THE BROKEN
ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SOLIDIFY. HOWEVER...IN
THE LAST HR OR TWO...KMQT RADAR IS SHOWING LES BANDS BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE AND STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...A
SIGN THAT ICE MAY BE OPENING UP AGAIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T TAKE MUCH OPEN WATER TO GET LES GOING...
ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. OUT W...KCMX/KIWD HAVE HAD
VIS GENERALLY BTWN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM IN -SHSN/BLSN OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE THRU NE MN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN HEAVIER LES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS RIBBON OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A NOTABLE
DECLINE IN LES INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE HEAVIER LES EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE VERY COLD AIR
KEEPING THE COLUMN FREE OF THE DGZ. WILL ALLOW ONGOING HEADLINES
PERTAINING TO LES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOME AND HEAVIER LES
DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS E. THAT SAID...BLSN WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM
DURING THE AFTN IN OPEN AREAS. ADDED LES ADVY TO LUCE COUNTY AS
BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES AND VERY POOR VIS SHIFT ACROSS THE COUNTY...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE LES/BLSN WILL BECOME CONFINED MAINLY
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY. OUT
W...LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.
CERTAINLY SHSN...SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
AS THIS MORNING.
WIND CHILLS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE AS OF 5 AM EST OVER
MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI...AND A FEW SPOTS OUT W ARE NEARING
-35F NOW. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS AT MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL TO OR BLO -35F DURING THE MORNING
HRS.
WINDS BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT...SHIFTING LES TO BE CONFINED MORE TO NW
UPPER MI...KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE THE USUAL CONVERGENCE
INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION...BUT IT`S A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP DUE TO AREAS OF ICE
ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ALTERING THE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. IN ANY
EVENT...DID HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
SHIFTING N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DIDN`T
GO CRAZY WITH LOW TEMPS AS A STEADY WIND WILL BE BLOWING. IF HIGH
PRES WAS OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS
WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT
THAT`S NOT THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE
-10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL
FALL TO -30 TO -45F. ON A SIDE NOTE...NAM MOS SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY COLD
MINS TONIGHT (-30F AT KSAW/-23F AT KCMX/-16F AT KP59 FOR
EXAMPLE)...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE MODEL INCORRECTLY DEPICTING WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AS TOTALLY ICE COVERED. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY
AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEN...THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT
OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND
LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL
THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SNOW BELTS TO
START TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. BUT AS THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE DETRIMENTAL AFFECTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH 875MB TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND -24C...THE WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER WESTERLY
WINDS WILL END UP LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE
LAKE EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH...A FAIRLY NICE BUT COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER MOVING
EAST THROUGH ONTARIO) TO SWEEP ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL SINK...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD/FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ...SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW
RATIOS TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE IF SNOW
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A LIGHT DUSTING TO AN INCH IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P.
AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -17C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS FOR THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE
EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE
12Z GFS FAILS TO SHOW A LOW. WAS HOPING THAT EACH MODELS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD LEAD TO SOME SUPPORT IN EITHER
DIRECTION...BUT THEY ALL WERE AROUND 50/50 ON WHETHER A LOW WILL
OCCUR. THUS...WILL FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND BELTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY WRLY WIND FLOW OR SPECIFICALLY
KCMX. HOWEVER...GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL STILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO MVFR AT KSAW AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
KIWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT KCMX...EXPECT GENERALLY PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE W THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...RESULTING IN MORE VIS
RESTRICTION FROM BLSN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES OF
35-45KTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINLING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...ANOTHE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN HUDSON BAY...AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OF EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
107 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMES BAY. CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS NOW
SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -31C
850MB TEMPS INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -33C OVER FAR NE
MN. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...MESOLOW...MDT/HVY LES
AND STRONG WINDS MOVED ONSHORE IN ALGER COUNTY LAST NIGHT AS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ALGER
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SHIFTING STEADILY E AS WINDS
SLOWLY BACK. THESE MAIN LES BANDS ARE NOW EAST OF MUNISING. THERE
HASN`T BEEN MUCH LES WEST OF THESE HEAVIER LES BANDS OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN ALLOWED THE BROKEN
ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SOLIDIFY. HOWEVER...IN
THE LAST HR OR TWO...KMQT RADAR IS SHOWING LES BANDS BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE AND STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...A
SIGN THAT ICE MAY BE OPENING UP AGAIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T TAKE MUCH OPEN WATER TO GET LES GOING...
ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. OUT W...KCMX/KIWD HAVE HAD
VIS GENERALLY BTWN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM IN -SHSN/BLSN OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE THRU NE MN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN HEAVIER LES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS RIBBON OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A NOTABLE
DECLINE IN LES INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE HEAVIER LES EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE VERY COLD AIR
KEEPING THE COLUMN FREE OF THE DGZ. WILL ALLOW ONGOING HEADLINES
PERTAINING TO LES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOME AND HEAVIER LES
DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS E. THAT SAID...BLSN WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM
DURING THE AFTN IN OPEN AREAS. ADDED LES ADVY TO LUCE COUNTY AS
BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES AND VERY POOR VIS SHIFT ACROSS THE COUNTY...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE LES/BLSN WILL BECOME CONFINED MAINLY
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY. OUT
W...LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.
CERTAINLY SHSN...SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
AS THIS MORNING.
WIND CHILLS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE AS OF 5 AM EST OVER
MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI...AND A FEW SPOTS OUT W ARE NEARING
-35F NOW. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS AT MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL TO OR BLO -35F DURING THE MORNING
HRS.
WINDS BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT...SHIFTING LES TO BE CONFINED MORE TO NW
UPPER MI...KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE THE USUAL CONVERGENCE
INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION...BUT IT`S A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP DUE TO AREAS OF ICE
ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ALTERING THE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. IN ANY
EVENT...DID HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
SHIFTING N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DIDN`T
GO CRAZY WITH LOW TEMPS AS A STEADY WIND WILL BE BLOWING. IF HIGH
PRES WAS OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS
WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT
THAT`S NOT THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE
-10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL
FALL TO -30 TO -45F. ON A SIDE NOTE...NAM MOS SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY COLD
MINS TONIGHT (-30F AT KSAW/-23F AT KCMX/-16F AT KP59 FOR
EXAMPLE)...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE MODEL INCORRECTLY DEPICTING WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AS TOTALLY ICE COVERED. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
ICE COVER...OR THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER LIKELY BEING CALCULATED IN
SOME OF THE FCST MODELS IS HAVING AN IMPACT. RECENT HIGH WINDS HAVE
BROKEN UP MUCH OF THE ICE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
IMPACTED...AS WELL AS THE SMALL-SCALE MODELS THAT USE THE NAM AS A
BASELINE. SKY COVER...QPF...AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW IN
ONSHORE WIND SCENARIOS...AND WINDS COULD BE TOO LOW OR TOO STRONG.
THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FCST PROCESS. RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MORE HAND EDITING AS NEEDED TO FIT THE
CONCEPTUAL MODELS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST
NATIONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 20S. WE WILL NOT BE REACHING NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TO START OUT TUESDAY...WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
W-SW WINDS 10-15MPH AND TEMPS AROUND -10 TO -20F WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30 TO NEAR 45 BELOW ZERO RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W HALF...FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. WILL HOWEVER NEED NEW HEADLINES
FOR ALGER/N SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS CURRENT SNOW HEADLINES EXPIRE LATER
TODAY. FOR TUESDAY UPPER MI WILL REMAIN LOCKED BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER S HUDSON BAY THROUGH N QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
IN OUR STEADY W-NW FLOW OF COLD AIR...BEFORE SW WINDS SHIFT ANY
LINGERING LES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RISING FROM AN AVERAGE -25C TO -10C
BY 00Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS 15-20F.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY NOTHING
MORE THAN A 3-4HR DIFFERENCE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER TO
TURN THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND
BRING BACK LES. ASSUMING THAT THE STRONG WINDS OF 20-30KTS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TOO MUCH ICE FROM FORMING OVER THE
LAKE...CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE LES POTENTIAL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND EAST
OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DGZ EVEN MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS...AND WILL LIKELY PLAY A
ROLL IN HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST MOISTURE IS STILL JUST ABOVE THE DGZ.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY WRLY WIND FLOW OR SPECIFICALLY
KCMX. HOWEVER...GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL STILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO MVFR AT KSAW AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
KIWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT KCMX...EXPECT GENERALLY PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE W THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...RESULTING IN MORE VIS
RESTRICTION FROM BLSN. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES OF
35-45KTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINLING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...ANOTHE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN HUDSON BAY...AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OF EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-
266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMES BAY. CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS NOW
SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -31C
850MB TEMPS INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -33C OVER FAR NE
MN. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...MESOLOW...MDT/HVY LES
AND STRONG WINDS MOVED ONSHORE IN ALGER COUNTY LAST NIGHT AS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ALGER
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SHIFTING STEADILY E AS WINDS
SLOWLY BACK. THESE MAIN LES BANDS ARE NOW EAST OF MUNISING. THERE
HASN`T BEEN MUCH LES WEST OF THESE HEAVIER LES BANDS OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN ALLOWED THE BROKEN
ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SOLIDIFY. HOWEVER...IN
THE LAST HR OR TWO...KMQT RADAR IS SHOWING LES BANDS BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE AND STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...A
SIGN THAT ICE MAY BE OPENING UP AGAIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T TAKE MUCH OPEN WATER TO GET LES GOING...
ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. OUT W...KCMX/KIWD HAVE HAD
VIS GENERALLY BTWN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM IN -SHSN/BLSN OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE THRU NE MN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN HEAVIER LES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS RIBBON OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A NOTABLE
DECLINE IN LES INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE HEAVIER LES EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE VERY COLD AIR
KEEPING THE COLUMN FREE OF THE DGZ. WILL ALLOW ONGOING HEADLINES
PERTAINING TO LES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOME AND HEAVIER LES
DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS E. THAT SAID...BLSN WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM
DURING THE AFTN IN OPEN AREAS. ADDED LES ADVY TO LUCE COUNTY AS
BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES AND VERY POOR VIS SHIFT ACROSS THE COUNTY...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE LES/BLSN WILL BECOME CONFINED MAINLY
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY. OUT
W...LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.
CERTAINLY SHSN...SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
AS THIS MORNING.
WIND CHILLS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE AS OF 5 AM EST OVER
MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI...AND A FEW SPOTS OUT W ARE NEARING
-35F NOW. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS AT MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL TO OR BLO -35F DURING THE MORNING
HRS.
WINDS BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT...SHIFTING LES TO BE CONFINED MORE TO NW
UPPER MI...KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE THE USUAL CONVERGENCE
INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION...BUT IT`S A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP DUE TO AREAS OF ICE
ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ALTERING THE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. IN ANY
EVENT...DID HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
SHIFTING N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DIDN`T
GO CRAZY WITH LOW TEMPS AS A STEADY WIND WILL BE BLOWING. IF HIGH
PRES WAS OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS
WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT
THAT`S NOT THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE
-10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL
FALL TO -30 TO -45F. ON A SIDE NOTE...NAM MOS SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY COLD
MINS TONIGHT (-30F AT KSAW/-23F AT KCMX/-16F AT KP59 FOR
EXAMPLE)...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE MODEL INCORRECTLY DEPICTING WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AS TOTALLY ICE COVERED. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
ICE COVER...OR THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER LIKELY BEING CALCULATED IN
SOME OF THE FCST MODELS IS HAVING AN IMPACT. RECENT HIGH WINDS HAVE
BROKEN UP MUCH OF THE ICE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
IMPACTED...AS WELL AS THE SMALL-SCALE MODELS THAT USE THE NAM AS A
BASELINE. SKY COVER...QPF...AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW IN
ONSHORE WIND SCENARIOS...AND WINDS COULD BE TOO LOW OR TOO STRONG.
THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FCST PROCESS. RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MORE HAND EDITING AS NEEDED TO FIT THE
CONCEPTUAL MODELS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST
NATIONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 20S. WE WILL NOT BE REACHING NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TO START OUT TUESDAY...WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
W-SW WINDS 10-15MPH AND TEMPS AROUND -10 TO -20F WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30 TO NEAR 45 BELOW ZERO RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W HALF...FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. WILL HOWEVER NEED NEW HEADLINES
FOR ALGER/N SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS CURRENT SNOW HEADLINES EXPIRE LATER
TODAY. FOR TUESDAY UPPER MI WILL REMAIN LOCKED BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER S HUDSON BAY THROUGH N QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
IN OUR STEADY W-NW FLOW OF COLD AIR...BEFORE SW WINDS SHIFT ANY
LINGERING LES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RISING FROM AN AVERAGE -25C TO -10C
BY 00Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS 15-20F.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY NOTHING
MORE THAN A 3-4HR DIFFERENCE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER TO
TURN THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND
BRING BACK LES. ASSUMING THAT THE STRONG WINDS OF 20-30KTS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TOO MUCH ICE FROM FORMING OVER THE
LAKE...CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE LES POTENTIAL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND EAST
OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DGZ EVEN MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS...AND WILL LIKELY PLAY A
ROLL IN HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST MOISTURE IS STILL JUST ABOVE THE DGZ.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NW TO W...SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END AT KIWD TODAY. UNTIL THEN...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
WILL TREND TO MVFR BY AFTN THEN TO VFR BY LATE AFTN. AT KCMX...
EXPECT CONDITIONS VARYING BTWN IFR AND LIFR THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
A TREND TO PREVAILING LIFR FOR THE AFTN AND TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK
MORE TO THE W AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...RESULTING IN MORE VIS
RESTRICTION FROM BLSN. NW TO W WINDS WILL BE THE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR
-SHSN AT KSAW WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. EXPECT
CONDITIONS VARYING BTWN VFR AND MVFR TODAY WITH VFR PREVAILING
TONIGHT UNDER DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES OF
35-45KTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINLING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...ANOTHE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN HUDSON BAY...AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OF EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>014-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-014-085.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-
266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
529 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMES BAY. CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS NOW
SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -31C
850MB TEMPS INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -33C OVER FAR NE
MN. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...MESOLOW...MDT/HVY LES
AND STRONG WINDS MOVED ONSHORE IN ALGER COUNTY LAST NIGHT AS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ALGER
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SHIFTING STEADILY E AS WINDS
SLOWLY BACK. THESE MAIN LES BANDS ARE NOW EAST OF MUNISING. THERE
HASN`T BEEN MUCH LES WEST OF THESE HEAVIER LES BANDS OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN ALLOWED THE BROKEN
ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SOLIDIFY. HOWEVER...IN
THE LAST HR OR TWO...KMQT RADAR IS SHOWING LES BANDS BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE AND STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...A
SIGN THAT ICE MAY BE OPENING UP AGAIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T TAKE MUCH OPEN WATER TO GET LES GOING...
ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. OUT W...KCMX/KIWD HAVE HAD
VIS GENERALLY BTWN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM IN -SHSN/BLSN OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE THRU NE MN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN HEAVIER LES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS RIBBON OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A NOTABLE
DECLINE IN LES INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE HEAVIER LES EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE VERY COLD AIR
KEEPING THE COLUMN FREE OF THE DGZ. WILL ALLOW ONGOING HEADLINES
PERTAINING TO LES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOME AND HEAVIER LES
DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS E. THAT SAID...BLSN WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM
DURING THE AFTN IN OPEN AREAS. ADDED LES ADVY TO LUCE COUNTY AS
BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES AND VERY POOR VIS SHIFT ACROSS THE COUNTY...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE LES/BLSN WILL BECOME CONFINED MAINLY
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY. OUT
W...LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.
CERTAINLY SHSN...SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
AS THIS MORNING.
WIND CHILLS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE AS OF 5 AM EST OVER
MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI...AND A FEW SPOTS OUT W ARE NEARING
-35F NOW. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS AT MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL TO OR BLO -35F DURING THE MORNING
HRS.
WINDS BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT...SHIFTING LES TO BE CONFINED MORE TO NW
UPPER MI...KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE THE USUAL CONVERGENCE
INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION...BUT IT`S A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP DUE TO AREAS OF ICE
ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ALTERING THE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. IN ANY
EVENT...DID HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
SHIFTING N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DIDN`T
GO CRAZY WITH LOW TEMPS AS A STEADY WIND WILL BE BLOWING. IF HIGH
PRES WAS OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS
WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT
THAT`S NOT THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE
-10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL
FALL TO -30 TO -45F. ON A SIDE NOTE...NAM MOS SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY COLD
MINS TONIGHT (-30F AT KSAW/-23F AT KCMX/-16F AT KP59 FOR
EXAMPLE)...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE MODEL INCORRECTLY DEPICTING WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AS TOTALLY ICE COVERED. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
ICE COVER...OR THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER LIKELY BEING CALCULATED IN
SOME OF THE FCST MODELS IS HAVING AN IMPACT. RECENT HIGH WINDS HAVE
BROKEN UP MUCH OF THE ICE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
IMPACTED...AS WELL AS THE SMALL-SCALE MODELS THAT USE THE NAM AS A
BASELINE. SKY COVER...QPF...AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW IN
ONSHORE WIND SCENARIOS...AND WINDS COULD BE TOO LOW OR TOO STRONG.
THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FCST PROCESS. RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MORE HAND EDITING AS NEEDED TO FIT THE
CONCEPTUAL MODELS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST
NATIONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 20S. WE WILL NOT BE REACHING NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TO START OUT TUESDAY...WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
W-SW WINDS 10-15MPH AND TEMPS AROUND -10 TO -20F WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30 TO NEAR 45 BELOW ZERO RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W HALF...FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. WILL HOWEVER NEED NEW HEADLINES
FOR ALGER/N SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS CURRENT SNOW HEADLINES EXPIRE LATER
TODAY. FOR TUESDAY UPPER MI WILL REMAIN LOCKED BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER S HUDSON BAY THROUGH N QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
IN OUR STEADY W-NW FLOW OF COLD AIR...BEFORE SW WINDS SHIFT ANY
LINGERING LES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RISING FROM AN AVERAGE -25C TO -10C
BY 00Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS 15-20F.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY NOTHING
MORE THAN A 3-4HR DIFFERENCE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER TO
TURN THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND
BRING BACK LES. ASSUMING THAT THE STRONG WINDS OF 20-30KTS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TOO MUCH ICE FROM FORMING OVER THE
LAKE...CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE LES POTENTIAL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND EAST
OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DGZ EVEN MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS...AND WILL LIKELY PLAY A
ROLL IN HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST MOISTURE IS STILL JUST ABOVE THE DGZ.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX THROUGH TODAY AS WINDS BACK
TO A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR THE FINE FLAKE SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW THAT WOULD LEAD TO AIRFIELD LANDING MINS. ALTHOUGH THE SLOW
BACKING TREND WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO IWD
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY IFR VSBY UNTIL MORNING WHEN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS LIKELY.
THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR LES AT KSAW WITH
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE SITE. SO...MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CIGS EVEN LIFTING TO VFR AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES OF
35-45KTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINLING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...ANOTHE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN HUDSON BAY...AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OF EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-014-085.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-
266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1130 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
WE ADDED POPS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL...PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WE WILL CANCEL THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY SHORTLY...EXCEPT FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES WHICH WE
EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z. A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SNOWBELT REGIONS OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND GUSTY
WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING GOING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND...AND WE EXTENDED THE MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. THE GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND OF SNOW WAS STARTING TO
DIMINISH...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE RAP13 SUGGESTED WOULD HAPPEN ABOUT
THIS TIME.
WINDS WERE STARTING TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35
MPH. WE WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GO UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...AND ARE LEANING TOWARD EXTENDING IT FOR BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON
COUNTIES. THOSE AREAS WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGHER ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WE`LL MONITOR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE MAKING OUR DECISION.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST AND WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THEM TONIGHT. VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH THE LOWEST READING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUED OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A GRAVITY WAVE IN THE KDLH RADAR
IMAGES. THE RAP SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z...SO WE
WILL INCREASE POPS/SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS/BAYFIELD
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. WE ALSO
INCREASED POPS ELSEWHERE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AT LEAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THE ONSET OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EWD THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
TAPER OFF OVER NE MN AND MUCH OF NW WI THIS EVENING. A STRONG
INFLUX OF COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH NRN BAYFIELD...AND
ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES INTO NRN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. THE STRONG
NW WINDS...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER PRETTY MUCH
THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND. THE LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR WHERE HIGHER
SNOW AMTS FELL LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
COINCIDE. THIS WILL BE APPROXIMATELY FROM THE LEECH LAKE/BRAINERD
LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS/I-35 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE NORTH
AND SOUTH SHORES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...A STRONG PUSH OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE N/NW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AND PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES -35 TO -45. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BACK DOWN LATE
MONDAY. A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH MODERATION EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WE
SHOULD SEE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 35 BELOW IN THE
NORTH TO 25 TO 30 BELOW IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA. WE EVEN
WENT WITH SOME 30 BELOW READINGS IN PORTIONS OF NW WI. WIND CHILL
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 BELOW RANGE IN THE
NORTH...AND 40 TO 50 BELOW RANGE IN THE SOUTH. THIS COULD EASILY BE
ONE OF OUR COLDER NIGHTS OF THE WINTER. H85 TEMPS ALREADY START TO
MODERATE ON TUESDAY...CLIMBING TO -16 TO -19C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WAA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NW
TO SE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
VALUES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ON
TUESDAY...THEY SHOULD REACH INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT LITTLE TO NO
SNOWFALL DURING THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY VERY MINOR
SYSTEMS. THE SIX TO TEN AND EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY FORECASTS CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH SOUNDS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND AS THE VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WERE
OCCURRING IN SPOTS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
IN OTHERS IN SNOW SHOWERS. WE EXPECT VARIABLE CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING MOSTLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WE ALSO EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH LATE. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN WE WILL SEE A MVFR DECK OF CU DEVELOP ON
MONDAY...BUT WE DID NOT ADD ANY CEILINGS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -23 -13 -29 -6 / 60 10 0 0
INL -27 -17 -33 -5 / 40 10 0 0
BRD -24 -13 -31 -3 / 30 10 0 0
HYR -21 -12 -32 -4 / 60 10 0 0
ASX -17 -11 -26 -2 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ012-
019>021-037.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
025-026-033>038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
002-006>009.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
919 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED
ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST MONDAY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES NEEDED TO TODAY`S
FORECAST THIS MORNING MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TEMP AND RADAR
TRENDS. SNOW STILL HOLDING BACK IN THE SLV AS OF 9AM BUT WILL BE
RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE SURFACE
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT HAVE SHOT UP ABOVE 40 DEGREES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY
FALLING TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL
IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER
LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE
COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC
COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT
WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND
COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY
DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND
INTO CPV BTWN 15Z- 17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z.
VALUES OFF THE SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS
ALSO DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ`S MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM.
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED.
GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE
CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN
GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW
LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS
MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA.
PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z
TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO
THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO
M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F
HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55
TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT
OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR
REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE
ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES.
HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE
ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED
FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY
ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30
KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY
EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL
BE ACRS SLV/DACKS.
ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS
NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF
PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE
EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C
ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS
VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTHWEST FLW.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND
DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED
VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 5
ABOVE AND 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MILDEST READINGS
WILL BE IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS DUE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. COLD SPOTS WILL BE THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AS IT DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS BOTH
PERIODS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS 25 TO 30 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...BUT THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. GFS MAINTAINS ZONAL FLOW AND SHOWS LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE WHICH TRACKS OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP INTO SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLES PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AROUND 30. BOTH MODELS INDICATE CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z WITH BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT FROPA IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 15Z-16Z AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AT MPV/RUT. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT AT SLK WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.
SOUTH WINDS QUITE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS
EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY WITH W-SW WINDS
GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED
ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EST MONDAY...FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE TIMING OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FASTER WITH PRECIP ARRIVING/DEPARTING OUR CWA
TODAY...WITH CRNT RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE SLV.
THIS WL EXPAND INTO THE DACKS BY 12Z AND INTO THE CPV BTWN 13Z-15Z
TODAY. ALSO...EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACRS THE MTNS OF VT
BY 14Z TODAY. HAVE INCREASED TIMING BY 1 TO 2 HRS ON HRLY POP
GRIDS...BUT KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THE SAME. HAVE NOTED SNINCR`S
AT ROC/BUF OF 1 INCH IN 1 HR ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND THE
ACCOMPANYING SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WITH VIS BRIEFLY < 1/4SM. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACRS PARTS OF OUR CWA TODAY. ALSO...HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES BEFORE FROPA OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN CPV. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
QUICKLY FALL THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL
IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER
LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE
COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC
COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT
WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND
COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY
DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND
INTO CPV BTWN 15Z- 17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z.
VALUES OFF THE SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS
ALSO DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ`S MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM.
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED.
GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE
CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN
GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW
LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS
MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA.
PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z
TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO
THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO
M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F
HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55
TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT
OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR
REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE
ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES.
HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE
ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED
FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY
ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30
KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY
EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL
BE ACRS SLV/DACKS.
ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS
NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF
PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE
EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C
ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS
VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTHWEST FLW.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND
DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED
VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 5
ABOVE AND 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MILDEST READINGS
WILL BE IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS DUE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. COLD SPOTS WILL BE THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AS IT DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS BOTH
PERIODS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS 25 TO 30 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...BUT THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. GFS MAINTAINS ZONAL FLOW AND SHOWS LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE WHICH TRACKS OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP INTO SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLES PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AROUND 30. BOTH MODELS INDICATE CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AT BTV...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOSE TO 30 KTS AT BTV/MSS/SLK BY 12Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY 14-18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE
W-SW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH W-SW WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH W-SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A FEW MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
412 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...ARCTIC
AIR WILL SURGE BACK ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND USHER IN A RETURN
TO BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY. AT 400 AM...THE FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO
BUFFALO...WITH THIS BOUNDARY FORECAST TO RACE EASTWARD TO ROCHESTER
AND WATERTOWN AROUND DAYBREAK...AND EXITING EAST OF THE CWA BY
MID-MORNING. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATION...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 WHERE
TERRAIN WILL HELP ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK IN
PLACE...GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. THIS COMBINED WITH A SNOW BURST OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL PRODUCE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW WILL END ABRUPTLY FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LEANED ON THE HRRR FOR THE ULTRA-SHORT RANGE THROUGH
MID-MORNING...DUE TO ITS EXCELLENT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SATELLITE HINTS THAT A DRY SLOT OF AIR WILL MOVE IN IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PARTY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE REGION...AND IT IS ALSO LIKELY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THIS...EXPECT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND UPSLOPING TO PRODUCE A
GENERAL MODERATE SNOWFALL...FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN FACE OF THE TUG
HILL. AFTER THIS...WINDS WILL DROP OFF A BIT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A CONVERGENCE BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE MOISTURE...AND CAUSE THE
LAKE EFFECT BAND TO MEANDER NORTH AHEAD OF IT...AND THEN DROP SOUTH
WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BAND WILL STAY FOCUSED
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN
PLACE. OUTSIDE OF THIS...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES...SINCE LAKE ERIE IS PRIMARILY FROZEN.
OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY...FOLLOWING A RELATIVELY WARM START EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING
WINDS TONIGHT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 30 BELOW TONIGHT. WITH
A CONVERGENCE BAND FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT
WINDS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO STAY MORE WEST WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
COLDEST AIR TO REACH THESE AREAS AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL WARNING TO THESE ZONES AS WELL...BUT KEPT
THE ADVISORY IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW
OFF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY
MORNING AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED US
BY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO START THE DAY BELOW ZERO...WITH AROUND ZERO
AND BELOW ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A
SOUTHWEST WIND STILL 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS...WITH WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUING AS
OUTLINED BELOW. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...SOME 15 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ALSO ONGOING TUESDAY WILL BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT BEHIND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL LOWER LAKE INSTABILITY
FROM EXTREME TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WARMING WILL ALSO
LOWER THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM AND CAPE VALUES...THOUGH THAT
SAID THE LAKE BAND OF SNOW WILL STILL BE DUMPING SNOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH POSSIBLY NOT AT THE RATE IT WAS DOING MONDAY
NIGHT...AS IT ALSO LOSES ITS UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EXPANDS EASTWARD...AND AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OUR SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK SOME THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SUCH THAT THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL LIFT FROM OSWEGO COUNTY BACK INTO JEFFERSON
AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER THIS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR DIMINISHES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE LAKE EFFECT BAND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING. A STILL BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND
COMBINED WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL COLD WIND CHILLS WITH HEADLINES AGAIN LIKELY.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANY LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ENDING ACROSS
THE WATERTOWN AND NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE LAKE. WITH WINDS NOW
SOUTHERLY...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT OUR LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF ZERO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN NOAM REGION WILL SLIP
NORTHEASTWARD AND MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVES TROUGHS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CANADA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE INTEGRITY OF THE POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. THE ONE SUBTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS THAT THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO
QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
20S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LIKELY
TIMER PERIOD FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY...THOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS TO MOST
TAF SITES. AFTER THIS...EXPECT GUSTY WIND TO CAUSE SOME BLOWING
SNOW...WITH THIS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS TAPER
OFF A BIT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH OF ART THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR TO IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL UPGRADE TO GALES ON LAKE ERIE...FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP ON LAKE
ONTARIO AS A CLIPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ARCTIC AIR
SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THE GALES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TODAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THIS PAST STRETCH OF THREE MONTHS (NOVEMBER...DECEMBER...JANUARY TO
DATE) HAVE THUS FAR BEEN VERY COLD...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO
RECENT WINTER SEASONS. BUT HOW DOES THIS WINTER STRETCH COMPARE TO
SOME OF THE HISTORICAL COLD WINTERS OVER THIS SAME NOVEMBER TO
JANUARY STRETCH?
BELOW IS A RANKING OF COLD WINTER STRETCHES BASED ON THEIR
NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY MEAN TEMPERATURES. AGAIN FOR THIS LIST THE
WINTER STRETCH IS DEFINED AS NOVEMBER, DECEMBER AND JANUARY FOR
BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.
BUFFALO
RANK SEASON MEAN TEMPERATURE
1 1976-77 23.3
2 1917-18 23.3
3 1880-81 23.8
4 1919-20 25.8
5 1876-77 26.6
..
10 1904-05 27.6
..
12 1995-96 27.8
..
20 1958-59 28.7
21 2013-14 28.8 (VALUE THROUGH 1/26)
RECENT NOVEMBER-JANUARY STRETCHES...
SEASON MEAN TEMPERATURE
2010-11 29.7
2011-12 37.4
2012-13 35.2
ROCHESTER
RANK SEASON MEAN TEMPERATURE
1 1917-18 23.3
2 1976-77 24.8
3 1872-73 24.9
4 1880-81 25.6
5 1919-20 26.1
..
10 1876-77 26.7
..
19 1995-96 28.0
20 1942-43 28.1
..
30 1970-71 28.8
31 2002-03 29.0
32 2013-14 29.1 (VALUE THROUGH 1/26)
RECENT NOVEMBER-JANUARY STRETCHES...
SEASON MEAN TEMPERATURE
2010-11 29.3
2011-12 37.1
2012-13 35.2
AS WE CAN SEE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS HAVE BEEN VERY COLD,
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT WINTER SEASONS. IN FACT THIS 3
MONTH STRETCH WILL BE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE PAST 2
YEARS OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING THERE HAVE
BEEN MANY STRETCHES IN WINTER (NOVEMBER- DECEMBER- JANUARY) THAT
HAVE BEEN COLDER. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN
JANUARY...AND THIS RANKING WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS WE CLOSE OUT
THE MONTH...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THIS STRETCH OF THREE MONTHS WILL
BE THE COLDEST SINCE THE NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY STRETCH OF
1995-96. RECORDS FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO 1871.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ001>003-010>012-019-020-085.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ006>008.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ006>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-041.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043>045-
063>065.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED
ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA
TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW
SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP
TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN
VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS
DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL
MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL
HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED
PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL
LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD
FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS
OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND
LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND INTO CPV BTWN 15Z-
17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z. VALUES OFF THE
SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS ALSO
DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS
WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ`S MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS
OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM.
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED.
GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE
CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN
GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW
LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS
MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA.
PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z
TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO
THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO
M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F
HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55
TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT
OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR
REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE
ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES.
HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE
ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED
FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY
ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30
KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY
EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL
BE ACRS SLV/DACKS.
ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS
NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF
PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE
EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C
ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS
VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTHWEST FLW.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND
DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED
VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 5
ABOVE AND 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MILDEST READINGS
WILL BE IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS DUE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. COLD SPOTS WILL BE THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AS IT DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS BOTH
PERIODS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS 25 TO 30 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...BUT THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. GFS MAINTAINS ZONAL FLOW AND SHOWS LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE WHICH TRACKS OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP INTO SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLES PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AROUND 30. BOTH MODELS INDICATE CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AT BTV...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOSE TO 30 KTS AT BTV/MSS/SLK BY 12Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY 14-18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE
W-SW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH W-SW WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH W-SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A FEW MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED
ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA
TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW
SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP
TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN
VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS
DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL
MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL
HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED
PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL
LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD
FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS
OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND
LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND INTO CPV BTWN 15Z-
17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z. VALUES OFF THE
SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS ALSO
DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS
WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ`S MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS
OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM.
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED.
GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE
CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN
GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW
LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS
MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA.
PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z
TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO
THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO
M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F
HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55
TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT
OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR
REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE
ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES.
HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE
ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED
FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY
ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30
KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY
EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL
BE ACRS SLV/DACKS.
ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS
NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF
PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE
EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C
ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS
VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTHWEST FLW.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND
DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED
VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
AVERAGES FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NEWD
ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS
GENERALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ENOUGH WSWLY FLOW MAY PERSIST TO
BRING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SRN ST.
LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z GFS. A LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SRN PORTIONS OF ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...DESPITE DEVELOPING SWLY
WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR GOOD RADIATIVE
COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A LIGHT SOUTH/SW WIND
WILL PREVAIL IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS...KEEPING
TEMPS FROM FALLING QUICKLY IN THOSE AREAS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOW-MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS...TO 0 TO -8F ELSEWHERE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHTER WINDS. MID-UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO WSWLY
THURSDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BECOME S-SW AS WELL. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...FROM -20C TO -22C AT 18Z WEDNESDAY...UP TO AROUND
-10C BY 18Z THU. THIS - IN TURN - WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE MID-UPR 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THU-SUN. DECAYING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
THEREAFTER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BUT IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVES STAY GENERALLY SOUTH OF OUR
REGION IN 12Z GFS/ECMWF. HAVE TRENDED CONDITIONS DRIER FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH JUST 20-30 POPS FOR -SW ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AT BTV...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOSE TO 30 KTS AT BTV/MSS/SLK BY 12Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY 14-18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE
W-SW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH W-SW WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH W-SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A FEW MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1036 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST TONIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE UNCHANGED THIS EVENING.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND REGIONAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY VALUES
BLOSSOMED AND INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING...AS A PAIR OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAKS
(INCLUDING A MEASURED 175 KTS IN THE NORTHERN ONE OVER KBNA) BECOME
INCREASINGLY PHASED FROM THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THERE WAS EARLIER CONCERN THAT SNOW TOTALS MAY BE TOO HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS...WHERE A
700-850 MB WARM NOSE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 3 DEGREES NOSED INTO
THOSE AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
PRECIPITATION FELL PRIMARILIY AS SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF COOLING OF THE WARM NOSE EVIDENT IN
FORECAST THICKNESSES...BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND MOST RECENTLY ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THESE AREAS
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM THERE...WITH
CONTINUED ALL SNOW ELSEWHERE. WHILE THE NEW/00Z NAM HAS VERIFIED TOO
HIGH BY ABOUT DOUBLE WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPIATION
AMOUNTS...THE HRRR AND RUC HAVE VERIFIED MUCH BETTER AND INDICATE AN
AVERAGE OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 1 AM AND 5 AM...YIELDING A TOTAL OF AN TWO TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT EAST OF A WADESBORO TO
RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF I-
95. THESE LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WOULD WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER 2 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN SNOW RATIOS OF 8-15:1...LOWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS
WHERE THE AFORMENTIONED RELATIVE WARMTH IN THE H7-850 LAYER RESIDES.
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE AFOREMTNIONED WADESBORO TO RALEIGH TO
ROANOKE RAPIDS LINE - A LINE THAT NOT SURPRISINGLY COINCIDES WITH
THE H85 TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS - MAY EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 1 OR 2 AM...WHERE A SATURATED LAYER DEPTH
IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE NUCLEATION/MIXED PHASE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. THIS ALREADY SHALLOW SAURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...INCLUDING THE TRIAD.
THE OTHER BIG IMPACT WILL BE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS...WHEN COMBINED WITH A 5-15 MPH WIND...WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. DURING OUR MULTIPLE
SNOW MEASURING TRIPS OUTSIDE HERE ON NCSU CENTENNIAL CAMPUS...THE
COMBINATION OF COLD...WIND...AND DAMPNESS HAS INDEED BEEN BONE-
CHILLING. ALL OBSERVED SNOW REPORTS CAN BE FOUND IN BOTH THE LSR AND
PNS PRODUCTS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENTLY UPDATED AS NEW
REPORTS COME IN...THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THE WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE ARA IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE
DEPARTING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BUT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MID MORNING.
A LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHEAR EASTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY
WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EAST AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY BUT VERY
COLD CONDITIONS. SOME CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL YIELD TO A
PERIOD OF HIGH OVERCAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER
AND COLD AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN
SUBFREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO FALL WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW
PACK AND LITTLE WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HINTED THAT SOME PRECIPITATION
MAY BACK INLAND ACROSS THE NC COAST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TOUGH AXIS. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS TOO MUCH BUT AM CONCERNED
THAT SOME CIRRUS MAY INHIBIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO
FOR NOW WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES.
CONTINUED COLD BUT NOT AS COLD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 16-24 RANGE WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A WELCOME WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL EDGE UP INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...AND A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MINS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING TO THE MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES OFFSHORE AND WE ENJOY SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT.
CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
WELL ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY 40 TO 45. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LOW
AMPLITUDE = NEAR ZONAL AS THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SEASONABLY MILD HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST...AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER EXTENDED
FORECAST...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. CONCURRENTLY...
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ALIGNING MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WOULD
BE CONDUCIVE TO A COUPLE OF CLOUDY AND DAMP DAYS TO START THE WORK
WEEK. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...NO ARCTIC AIR IS IN THE PIPELINE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE BOTH DAYS...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: WINTER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEN CLEARING OUT BACK TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS IT IS LIGHT AT ALL SITES AT THIS
POINT WITH SNOW AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KFAY WHERE FZRA IS BEING
REPORTED. THAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AFTER 3Z OR SO.
THEREAFTER ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT BUT CANT RULE OUT PL FOR KFAY AND KRWI. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
CEASE AFTER 6Z WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING AS LATE AS 12Z WITH
EASTERN SITES SEEING PRECIPITATION LAST LONGER THAN WESTERN SITES.
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING
HAS SUBSIDED AT THIS HOUR SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AND 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE TONIGHT BUT ANYTHING FROM VFR TO IFR IS
POSSIBLE AND THE SAME GOES FOR VISIBILITIES. VISIBILITIES HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR GOING TO IFR WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL. AFTER SUNRISE
BOTH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SATURDAY
THAT COULD CAUSE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR JANUARY 30TH
GSO 4 DEGREES SET IN 1966
RDU 7 DEGREES SET IN 1977
FAY 8 DEGREES SET IN 1934
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007-
021>024-038-039-073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...ELLIS/TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
906 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
FALLING. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT READINGS WILL STEADY OUT BY
MIDDAY AND THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY MINOR DIURNAL
BUMP. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS WHICH MAY DELAY WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE SUB -25 RANGE. BUT DO NOT PLAN ON ANY CHANGES TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING. MID CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE BITTER COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSES IN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL LKLY BE
THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON RANGING FROM -16 OVER THE NW TO -7 SE.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACRS THE NW AND STRUGGLE
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SE.
STRONG WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW
TO 35 BELOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR THESE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
THERE WILL LKLY BE A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTN WHERE WIND CHILLS VALUES
ARE ABOVE THE -25 WARNING CRITERIA AND ABOVE -10 OVER THE SOUTH FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BUT THESE READINGS WILL DROP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER BITTER COLD
NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS IN 5 BELOW TO 10
BELOW ZERO RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THRU THE DAY TUESDAY THRU WED MORNING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE BUT STILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR LESS PRECIPITATION.
BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN SHARPEN UP LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW IN THE NORTH BUT A MIX AND THEN
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AS A STRONG COLD FRONT EXITS
EAST. LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAP MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT SOUTHERN
TAF SITES CVG LUK AND ILN...WHILE NORTHERN SITES DAY CMH AND LCK
WILL SEE SCT MID CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH
SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ078-079-081-082-088.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073-074.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK TO MORE
SEASONABLE READINGS BUT PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOCUS TODAY IS ON BITTER COLD OUTBREAK AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MID/UPR FLOW WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM S
CNTRL CANADA WILL DROP SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WORKING TO AMPLIFY
THE TROF OVER THE REGION. SFC LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TRACK TO THE NE WITH WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER
FAR EASTERN OHIO...EASTERN KY. STG PRESSURE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET
HAD EARLY RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FROPA.
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ATTM. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED WIND
ADVISORY.
STRONG CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS WAS RESULTING IN
TEMPS FALLING TO READINGS FROM THE SINGLE DIGEST NW TO UPPER TEENS
SE BY SUNRISE.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POOL OF 8H TEMPS OF -23 TO -28 C TO PUSH
INTO OHIO THIS AFTN AND ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH FALLING TEMPS TODAY WITH READINGS BY LATE AFTN BELOW ZERO NW
TO SINGLE DIGITS SE.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. SO HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
WIND CHILL REACHING -10 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACRS THE NW 2 THIRDS THIS MORNING. SO HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY
FOR THIS AREA THRU THE MORNING. WITH WIND CHILLS PLUNGING BY
EVENING TO 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW EXPECT TO START TO APPROACH WIND
CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE KEPT
WINCH CHILL WARNING BEGINNING AT NOON. ACRS THE FAR SOUTH HAVE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY STARTING AT NOON WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING 10
BELOW LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE BITTER COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSES IN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL LKLY BE
THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON RANGING FROM -16 OVER THE NW TO -7 SE.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACRS THE NW AND STRUGGLE
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SE.
STRONG WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW
TO 35 BELOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR THESE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
THERE WILL LKLY BE A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTN WHERE WIND CHILLS VALUES
ARE ABOVE THE -25 WARNING CRITERIA AND ABOVE -10 OVER THE SOUTH FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BUT THESE READINGS WILL DROP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER BITTER COLD
NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS IN 5 BELOW TO 10
BELOW ZERO RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THRU THE DAY TUESDAY THRU WED MORNING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE BUT STILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR LESS PRECIPITATION.
BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN SHARPEN UP LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW IN THE NORTH BUT A MIX AND THEN
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AS A STRONG COLD FRONT EXITS
EAST. LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAP MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT SOUTHERN
TAF SITES CVG LUK AND ILN...WHILE NORTHERN SITES DAY CMH AND LCK
WILL SEE SCT MID CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH
SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ078-079-081-082-088.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073-074.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
313 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBS...AND WEBCAMS SHOW A BAND
OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM ERN MT THROUGH NERN WY INTO
SWRN SD. THIS BAND WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL
AS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET THAT WAS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SWRN CWA OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE NOT GONE TOO LOW WITH MIN TEMPS
THERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BE RISING LATE TNGT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE RAP MODEL INDICATE
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER BLKHLS OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT
WARRANTED GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES AS WELL AS PWAT NEAR 0.05
INCHES.
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON TUESDAY AS SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING ENSUES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER NERN WY IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA WITH
INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
ALL OF THE CWA. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
THAT AREA...ROUGHLY A 5-MB DIFFERENCE FROM KECS TO KSPF. WIND SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED...BUT MAY NEED TO DO SO EVEN MORE IN LATER
SHIFTS. IT ALSO WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH PARTS OF THE NERN
FOOTHILLS STAYING IN THE 20S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA FROM LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION FOR A BRIEF TIME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT THIS POINT...UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OR
SO...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OVER NORTHEASTERN WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW....THOUGH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ALSO LOOK TO BE LIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A
BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT STILL IN THE RANGE OF 15 KNOTS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN ENTERS CENTRAL
MEXICO. FOR LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INCLUDING THE AUSTIN
METRO AREA. DUE TO THE LOW POP OF 10 PERCENT...WILL NOT MENTION IT
FOR KAUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOVE MENTIONED NEARS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...LOW POPS REMAIN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND
MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR IS BEING FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE TODAY
WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO 35 KT BY THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ARCTIC FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF
AUS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SAT BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS. GUSTS TO OVER 30 KT WILL SOON FOLLOW THE FROPA. MODELS ARE
NOT DEVELOPING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT SO
HAVE INCLUDED MAINLY CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF FORECAST. HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW SOME HIGHER
RH VALUES AROUND 850MB LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE
BROUGHT IN SOME DECKS AT THIS LEVEL BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY MVFR
CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST HAS LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AROUND THE AUS
AREA...BUT WITH POP SO LOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE AUS TAF AT
THIS TIME. SAME REASONING GOES WITH SAT/SSF LATER ON TUE WITH LOW
CHANCE POP FOR -FZRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THREE HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 6MB HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ONGOING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...
CAN/T RULE OUT GUSTY CONDITIONS WEST OF I-35 AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM12 AND RUC13 TRENDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD TONIGHT...BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALONG WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY BRING A ROUND OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND CALL FOR A MIXTURE OF SLEET
AND SNOW. ANY SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY
LIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO. THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
ROCKSPRINGS TO CUERO LINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AND SLEET
REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY... WHILE A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM
SAN ANTONIO NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IS LOW...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BUT GIVEN A NARROW REGION OF ORGANIZED LIFT...WE/LL ALSO MENTION
SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA COULD SEE
STRONGER LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND BOOSTED QPF A LITTLE.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR TUESDAY EVENING.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND COASTAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCREASE... A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS STILL IN
QUESTION AND WE/LL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 32 36 26 45 30 / 20 20 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 30 36 22 43 25 / 20 20 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 31 35 22 42 25 / 10 30 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 27 36 22 44 29 / 20 20 10 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 37 46 30 49 34 / 10 10 10 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 28 35 23 43 28 / 20 20 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 33 39 24 48 27 / 10 20 20 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 31 35 22 43 25 / 10 20 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 32 34 26 42 31 / 10 40 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 35 37 27 45 31 / 10 20 20 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 35 38 27 45 30 / 10 20 20 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
538 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR IS BEING FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE TODAY
WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO 35 KT BY THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ARCTIC FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF
AUS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SAT BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS. GUSTS TO OVER 30 KT WILL SOON FOLLOW THE FROPA. MODELS ARE
NOT DEVELOPING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT SO
HAVE INCLUDED MAINLY CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF FORECAST. HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW SOME HIGHER
RH VALUES AROUND 850MB LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE
BROUGHT IN SOME DECKS AT THIS LEVEL BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY MVFR
CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST HAS LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AROUND THE AUS
AREA...BUT WITH POP SO LOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE AUS TAF AT
THIS TIME. SAME REASONING GOES WITH SAT/SSF LATER ON TUE WITH LOW
CHANCE POP FOR -FZRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THREE HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 6MB HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ONGOING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...
CAN/T RULE OUT GUSTY CONDITIONS WEST OF I-35 AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM12 AND RUC13 TRENDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD TONIGHT...BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALONG WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY BRING A ROUND OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND CALL FOR A MIXTURE OF SLEET
AND SNOW. ANY SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY
LIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO. THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
ROCKSPRINGS TO CUERO LINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AND SLEET
REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY... WHILE A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM
SAN ANTONIO NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IS LOW...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BUT GIVEN A NARROW REGION OF ORGANIZED LIFT...WE/LL ALSO MENTION
SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA COULD SEE
STRONGER LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND BOOSTED QPF A LITTLE.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR TUESDAY EVENING.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND COASTAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCREASE... A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS STILL IN
QUESTION AND WE/LL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 32 36 26 45 / - 20 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 30 36 22 43 / - 20 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 31 35 22 42 / - 10 30 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 44 27 36 22 44 / - 20 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 55 37 46 30 49 / 0 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 28 35 23 43 / - 20 20 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 33 39 24 48 / 0 10 20 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 47 31 35 22 43 / - 10 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 32 34 26 42 / - 10 40 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 51 35 37 27 45 / - 10 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 38 27 45 / - 10 20 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
403 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THREE HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 6MB HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ONGOING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...
CAN/T RULE OUT GUSTY CONDITIONS WEST OF I-35 AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM12 AND RUC13 TRENDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD TONIGHT...BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALONG WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY BRING A ROUND OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND CALL FOR A MIXTURE OF SLEET
AND SNOW. ANY SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY
LIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO. THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
ROCKSPRINGS TO CUERO LINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AND SLEET
REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY... WHILE A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM
SAN ANTONIO NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IS LOW...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BUT GIVEN A NARROW REGION OF ORGANIZED LIFT...WE/LL ALSO MENTION
SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA COULD SEE
STRONGER LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND BOOSTED QPF A LITTLE.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR TUESDAY EVENING.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND COASTAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCREASE... A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS STILL IN
QUESTION AND WE/LL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 32 36 26 45 / - 20 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 30 36 22 43 / - 20 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 31 35 22 42 / - 10 30 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 44 27 36 22 44 / - 20 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 55 37 46 30 49 / 0 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 28 35 23 43 / - 20 20 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 33 39 24 48 / 0 10 20 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 47 31 35 22 43 / - 10 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 32 34 26 42 / - 10 40 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 51 35 37 27 45 / - 10 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 38 27 45 / - 10 20 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
328 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A STALL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE
INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA INTO THIS MORNING.
THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO ALL SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AHEAD OF
THIS TRANSITION LINE.
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THIS
SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE BELOW
FREEZING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE LATEST SPC WRF INDICATED SNOW ENDING IN THE WEST PART BETWEEN
400 AM AND 600 AM...AND THE EAST PART DURING THE 600 AM TO 900 AM
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW
MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW AND GETTING BELOW THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 200 AM TO 600 AM TIME FRAME...SO THE
SNOW MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER AND POSSIBLY BECOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEFORE ENDING.
MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING
THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER
SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN
OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIPITATION-TYPE EVENT.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PIEDMONT...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM MCCORMICK TO
SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA TO AIKEN TO
COLUMBIA PLUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS
FROM CAMDEN TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA A
MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECASTED. THIS
INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG
AND ORANGEBURG...TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH.
THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT-
OVER SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND
FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY
WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE
REMNANT SNOW/ICE. SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES
TONIGHT...WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF LEVELS OUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW
WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 40
TO 45 WITH 50 TO 55 FRIDAY AND AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND IN THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING. &&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER TX. LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE TN
VALLEY SUNDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST THRU THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN IFR/MVFR AS SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. OBSERVATIONS FROM SITES TO OUR WEST
WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED SHOW VFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD
AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH TODAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-
018-020-021-025-026.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-
022-027>031-035>038-041.
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ077.
&&
$$
02/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
113 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A STALL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE
INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA INTO THIS MORNING.
THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO ALL SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AHEAD OF
THIS TRANSITION LINE.
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THIS
SUPPORTS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE BELOW
FREEZING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE LATEST SPC WRF INDICATED SNOW ENDING IN THE WEST PART BETWEEN
400 AM AND 600 AM...AND THE EAST PART DURING THE 600 AM TO 900 AM
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW
MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW AND GETTING BELOW THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 200 AM TO 600 AM TIME FRAME...SO THE
SNOW MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER AND POSSIBLY BECOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEFORE ENDING.
MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING
THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER
SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN
OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIPITATION-TYPE EVENT.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PIEDMONT...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM MCCORMICK TO
SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS...THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA TO AIKEN TO
COLUMBIA PLUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS
FROM CAMDEN TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA A
MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECASTED. THIS
INCLUDES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG
AND ORANGEBURG...TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH.
THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT-
OVER SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND
FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY
WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE
REMNANT SNOW/ICE. SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES
TONIGHT...WITH BLACK ICE LIKELY ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH READINGS BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS SHOWING INDICATING BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...STALLING IT TO
OUR SOUTH. CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN IFR/MVFR AS SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. OBSERVATIONS FROM SITES TO OUR WEST
WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED SHOW VFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD
AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH TODAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-
016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
318 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH A
BROAD DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NAMERICA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN
THE AROUND -25C...LES CONTINUES OFF MAINLY NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A W-WSW WIND FLOW WHERE VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST
MODIS IMAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF OPEN WATER. MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE ICE-COVERED EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A
NARROW PORTION JUST WEST OF THE KEWEENAW ALTHOUGH WAA MID-HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING
DOWN FM NRN ONTARIO MAKING IT HARDER TO DISCERN ICE COVERAGE OVER
WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KCMX HAS
REPORTED OCCASIONAL VSBY OF 1/2SM OR LOWER...VSBY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW BASED ON WEBCAMS. THUS...DECIDED TO CANCEL LAKE
EFFECT ADVISORY ON MORNING UPDATE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN UP TO
NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AS NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WIND
CHILLS AT KCMX ARE STILL SOLIDLY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY (-30F OR
LOWER) WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25F
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS.
AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL KEEP
CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE
ADDING BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES...SO COUNTIES FROM BARAGA
AND IRON WESTWARD WILL BE IN ADVISORIES THROUGH 16Z WED. PORTIONS OF
WRN MQT COUNTY COULD REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
BUT MOST OF THE COUNTY SHOULD STAY ABV -25F SO DECIDED AGAINST
HEADLINE THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER
INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE OR JUST ABV ADVISORY CRITERIA.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT A BIG FALL
IN TEMPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SW CWA NEAR THE WI BDR WHERE LOWS COULD
APPROACH -12F IN A FEW SPOTS.
RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE IN
THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FROM THE RECENT BELOW ZERO HIGHS...NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY
AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD
BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
OUR STREAK OF DAYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONTINUES...WITH TODAY BEING
THE 54TH DAY IN A ROW. LOOKING AT LONG TERM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA...NONE OF THE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND ONLY A RUN OR TWO NEAR DAY 15. THUS...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL WE WILL BE NEARING THE RECORD OF 72 DAYS (SET IN
1978-1979) WHEN WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z THURSDAY AND
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO JAMES BAY BY 18Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT AND DEPART THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
FRONT (WHICH AFFECTS MUCH OF THE U.P.) WILL BE A LITTLE MOISTURE
STARVED AND WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY NEAR EACH OTHER THERE COULD
BE AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TOWARDS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING
OVER THE WEST HALF...BUT IF THE INTENSITY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (MUCH OF THE
FORCING/CLOUD IN THE DGZ).
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P.
AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -16C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. IN
ADDITION...WITH ICE COVER BUILDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT THAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IS
UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND LOW
END DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND
SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN
THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. 12Z
ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE GFS IS STARTING TO COME AROUND
TO IT. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT
IDEA. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
AND WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE
SLIGHT POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.
BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERLY WIND BELTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW...DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
VERY COLD AIR AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AT KCMX...FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS...THROUGH WED
MORNING. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VSBY BLO
AIRFIELD MINIMUMS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.
AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW FLURRIES MAY
LINGER AT SAW OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BLO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS
ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. INITIAL GALES TO
40KTS WILL LINGER INTO MID MONRNING E...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
CENTRAL EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL DRIFT
E...WHILE BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. A LOW OVER S
HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TRACKS W-E
ACROSS ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A TROUGH
ACROSS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT S-SW GALES TO 40KTS IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE E HALF. ANOTHER HIGH
WILL THEN MOVE SE FROM ALBERTA TO THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY...WHILE KEEPING A WEAK RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THEN ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001>004-009-010-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1206 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH A
BROAD DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NAMERICA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN
THE AROUND -25C...LES CONTINUES OFF MAINLY NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A W-WSW WIND FLOW WHERE VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST
MODIS IMAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF OPEN WATER. MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE ICE-COVERED EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A
NARROW PORTION JUST WEST OF THE KEWEENAW ALTHOUGH WAA MID-HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING
DOWN FM NRN ONTARIO MAKING IT HARDER TO DISCERN ICE COVERAGE OVER
WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KCMX HAS
REPORTED OCCASIONAL VSBY OF 1/2SM OR LOWER...VSBY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW BASED ON WEBCAMS. THUS...DECIDED TO CANCEL LAKE
EFFECT ADVISORY ON MORNING UPDATE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN UP TO
NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AS NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WIND
CHILLS AT KCMX ARE STILL SOLIDLY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY (-30F OR
LOWER) WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25F
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS.
AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL KEEP
CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE
ADDING BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES...SO COUNTIES FROM BARAGA
AND IRON WESTWARD WILL BE IN ADVISORIES THROUGH 16Z WED. PORTIONS OF
WRN MQT COUNTY COULD REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
BUT MOST OF THE COUNTY SHOULD STAY ABV -25F SO DECIDED AGAINST
HEADLINE THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER
INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE OR JUST ABV ADVISORY CRITERIA.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT A BIG FALL
IN TEMPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SW CWA NEAR THE WI BDR WHERE LOWS COULD
APPROACH -12F IN A FEW SPOTS.
RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE IN
THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FROM THE RECENT BELOW ZERO HIGHS...NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY
AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD
BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
OUR STREAK OF DAYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONTINUES...WITH TODAY BEING
THE 54TH DAY IN A ROW. LOOKING AT LONG TERM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA...NONE OF THE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND ONLY A RUN OR TWO NEAR DAY 15. THUS...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL WE WILL BE NEARING THE RECORD OF 72 DAYS (SET IN
1978-1979) WHEN WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z THURSDAY AND
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO JAMES BAY BY 18Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT AND DEPART THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
FRONT (WHICH AFFECTS MUCH OF THE U.P.) WILL BE A LITTLE MOISTURE
STARVED AND WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY NEAR EACH OTHER THERE COULD
BE AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TOWARDS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING
OVER THE WEST HALF...BUT IF THE INTENSITY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (MUCH OF THE
FORCING/CLOUD IN THE DGZ).
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P.
AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -16C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. IN
ADDITION...WITH ICE COVER BUILDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT THAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IS
UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND LOW
END DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND
SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN
THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. 12Z
ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE GFS IS STARTING TO COME AROUND
TO IT. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT
IDEA. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
AND WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE
SLIGHT POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.
BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERLY WIND BELTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW...DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
VERY COLD AIR AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AT KCMX...FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS...THROUGH WED
MORNING. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VSBY BLO
AIRFIELD MINIMUMS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.
AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW FLURRIES MAY
LINGER AT SAW OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BLO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS
ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. EXPECT WSW GALES TO
40 KTS OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AS WINDS AGAIN SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001>004-009-010-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-263-
264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
220 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING. A CHILLY
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING... WHEN A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE UNCHANGED THIS EVENING.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND REGIONAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY VALUES
BLOSSOMED AND INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING...AS A PAIR OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAKS
(INCLUDING A MEASURED 175 KTS IN THE NORTHERN ONE OVER KBNA) BECOME
INCREASINGLY PHASED FROM THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THERE WAS EARLIER CONCERN THAT SNOW TOTALS MAY BE TOO HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS...WHERE A
700-850 MB WARM NOSE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 3 DEGREES NOSED INTO
THOSE AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN
PRECIPITATION FELL PRIMARILY AS SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF COOLING OF THE WARM NOSE EVIDENT IN
FORECAST THICKNESSES...BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND MOST RECENTLY ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THESE AREAS
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM THERE...WITH
CONTINUED ALL SNOW ELSEWHERE. WHILE THE NEW/00Z NAM HAS VERIFIED TOO
HIGH BY ABOUT DOUBLE WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPIATION
AMOUNTS...THE HRRR AND RUC HAVE VERIFIED MUCH BETTER AND INDICATE AN
AVERAGE OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 1 AM AND 5 AM...YIELDING A TOTAL OF AN TWO TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT EAST OF A WADESBORO TO
RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS LINE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF I-
95. THESE LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WOULD WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER 2 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN SNOW RATIOS OF 8-15:1...LOWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS
WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED RELATIVE WARMTH IN THE H7-850 LAYER RESIDES.
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WADESBORO TO RALEIGH TO
ROANOKE RAPIDS LINE - A LINE THAT NOT SURPRISINGLY COINCIDES WITH
THE H85 TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS - MAY EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 1 OR 2 AM...WHERE A SATURATED LAYER DEPTH
IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE NUCLEATION/MIXED PHASE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. THIS ALREADY SHALLOW SATURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...INCLUDING THE TRIAD.
THE OTHER BIG IMPACT WILL BE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS...WHEN COMBINED WITH A 5-15 MPH WIND...WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. DURING OUR MULTIPLE
SNOW MEASURING TRIPS OUTSIDE HERE ON NCSU CENTENNIAL CAMPUS...THE
COMBINATION OF COLD...WIND...AND DAMPNESS HAS INDEED BEEN BONE-
CHILLING. ALL OBSERVED SNOW REPORTS CAN BE FOUND IN BOTH THE LSR AND
PNS PRODUCTS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENTLY UPDATED AS NEW
REPORTS COME IN...THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THE WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE ARA IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE
DEPARTING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BUT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MID MORNING.
A LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHEAR EASTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY
WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EAST AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY BUT VERY
COLD CONDITIONS. SOME CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL YIELD TO A
PERIOD OF HIGH OVERCAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER
AND COLD AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN
SUBFREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO FALL WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW
PACK AND LITTLE WIND. GUIDANCE HAS HINTED THAT SOME PRECIPITATION
MAY BACK INLAND ACROSS THE NC COAST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TOUGH AXIS. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS TOO MUCH BUT AM CONCERNED
THAT SOME CIRRUS MAY INHIBIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO
FOR NOW WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES.
CONTINUED COLD BUT NOT AS COLD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 16-24 RANGE WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A WELCOME WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL EDGE UP INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...AND A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MINS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING TO THE MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES OFFSHORE AND WE ENJOY SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT.
CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
WELL ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY 40 TO 45. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LOW
AMPLITUDE = NEAR ZONAL AS THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SEASONABLY MILD HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST...AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER EXTENDED
FORECAST...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. CONCURRENTLY...
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ALIGNING MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND
STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WOULD
BE CONDUCIVE TO A COUPLE OF CLOUDY AND DAMP DAYS TO START THE WORK
WEEK. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...NO ARCTIC AIR IS IN THE PIPELINE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE BOTH DAYS...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...
INT/GSO IS SEEING VFR CONDITIONS AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. AT RDU... CURRENT MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AND
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL HOLD ON UNTIL AROUND 11-12Z... WHEN PRECIP WILL
HAVE MOVED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING INCLUDING A TREND TO
JUST HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. AT FAY/RWI... CURRENT MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN SNOWFALL WILL HOLD EVEN LONGER... THROUGH 14-
16Z... WITH AVIATION CONDITIONS TRENDING TO PRIMARILY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR CIGS AFTER THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT
THESE LOCATIONS AFTER 18Z... WITH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN FROM THE NNE THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NNW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON... UNDER 10 KTS AT INT/GSO/RDU BUT AROUND 10-12 KTS AT
RWI/FAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGH THU EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE REGION. A
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS MAINLY AT FAY/RWI THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME BY MIDDAY FRI EVERYWHERE... THEN
MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN FRI EVENING/NIGHT MAINLY AT FAY/RDU/RWI.
IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO SUN AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR JANUARY 30TH
GSO 4 DEGREES SET IN 1966
RDU 7 DEGREES SET IN 1977
FAY 8 DEGREES SET IN 1934
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007-
021>024-038-039-073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...ELLIS/TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
431 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR
MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE
THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON
THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS
MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS.
WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN
ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE
WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH
NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN
COOLER.
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF...
CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE
TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES
NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL
GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION
THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE
REGION.
OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE
REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A
RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE
ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY
BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL
REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL
HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE
THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN
FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
LAST BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW EAST OF KDAN AND KLYH THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THROUGH
29/09Z. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IS WORKING IN AND CEILINGS FOR MOST
STATIONS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH SUNRISE. KBLF WILL MAINTAIN
IFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS AS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS LOW
CEILINGS AND THE OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRY THAT REDUCES VISIBILITY...
HOWEVER THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ABATE BY SUNRISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
ONCE AREA AIRPORTS SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN...EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 29/06Z TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TOWARD 15 KT DURING THE DAY DUE
TO DECENT PRESSURE RISES OVER THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
911 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY AS A STORM PASSES
WELL OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRIER WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW MILDER
TEMPERATURES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER RETURNS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
905 AM UPDATE...CORRECTED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
REPORTS SO FAR INDICATE WIDESPREAD 2-5 INCH TOTALS ON CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS WITH A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS...AND ABOUT 1 INCH BACK TO I-95
CORRIDOR.
BACK EDGE OF SNOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD COAST. MAIN BAND
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS
AFFECTING NANTUCKET BUT WAS NARROWING AS IT HEADS E. HRRR HAS A
GREAT HANDLE ON RADAR TRENDS AND IS WEIGHED HEAVILY INTO FORECAST
THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON CAPE
COD/NANTUCKET BEFORE SNOW ENDS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLEARING WAS ALREADY WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
REACH COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS IN TEENS AND 20S
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE AXIS
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL BRING LESS COLD AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MAKE
ROOM FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WHICH MEANS A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
WE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT YIELDS NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND TEENS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ALOFT
THURSDAY CLIMB TO AROUND -16C TO -17C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
- A STORM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...EXACT OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN
- COLD AND DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
- ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK
*/ OVERVIEW...
HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR ROUND
WHICH INCIPIENT DISTURBANCES WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CONSIDERING NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEAMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NORTHERN STREAM POLAR WAVES REMAIN
MOISTURE DEPRIVED BY THE MORE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME...WHEREAS SOUTHERN
STREAM PACIFIC WAVES ARE ABLE TO USURP WARM-MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF
NORTHWARD THEREBY ENHANCING THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WEST.
CONSEQUENTIAL INSIDE-RUNNER PATTERN OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
RESULT IN INITIAL PRECIP-TYPE CHALLENGES AS WARMER AIR OVERRUNS
LINGERING ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE...BUT SEEMINGLY AS COLDER AIR IS
SCOURED OUT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER-WET WEATHER TRENDS...FOLLOWED
BY THE REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REAR.
*/ MODEL PREFERENCE...
MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INCONSISTENCIES...NEVERTHELESS TRENDS ARE
WELL-ESTABLISHED AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED
BLEND IS PREFERRED OUT THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE HELD UP FROM PROGRESSING FURTHER SOUTH.
WITH THE LOW CENTER SO FAR NORTH AND MODEST WAA / SOUTHERLY FLOW
STIFLES THE SAG OF THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC IS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST.
WITH BEST DYNAMICS / FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF MOISTURE /MORE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS/ HAVE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF
OUTCOMES FORCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/ MAINLY
THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES
AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE /FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME/. WILL PUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS N/W MA AND
S NH CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. LIGHT ACCUMS IF ANY. BLUSTERY SOUTH
WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND CAA.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
A PAIRING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WHICH DO NOT
APPEAR TO PHASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF
THE TWO SEEMINGLY INDICATES THAT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR WAVE
RACES AHEAD CUTTING OFF FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE FLOW TO WHICH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC WAVE WITHIN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
RETAINS. SUBSEQUENTLY...PER INDICATIONS...THERE IS A BREAK IN THE
ACTION ACROSS THE NE CONUS. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INCONSISTENCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE LEND TO UNCERTAINTY.
INITIAL CHALLENGES INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE INITIAL WARM-FRONT
AND PRECIP-TYPE CONSIDERATIONS /COULD BE TOO DRY OR PERHAPS PRECIP
WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT HEADLINES INITIALLY...NEVERTHELESS
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE PREVAILED SUCH
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST/. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS PREFERRED AS BRANCHING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS INVOKES A MODEST WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF
REGION INTO THE NE CONUS /SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS GETTING TO THE
SURFACE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE/...THIS LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. AGAIN...PRECIP-
TYPES AN ISSUE.
WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
AND INVOCATION OF A COASTAL LOW IN PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ALONG THE BETTER BAROCLINIC ZONE...SHOULD SEE AN END TO ACTIVITY BY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. COLD-AIR DAMMING SETUP
EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER INSIDE-RUNNER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT.
MIDWEEK...
A SECOND INSIDE-RUNNER LOW. LIKELY SOME INITIAL PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES
AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. WILL ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW AS
THE GREATEST DISPARITY AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS MAINLY WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING OF OUTCOMES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
1405Z UPDATE:
IFR/LIFR GRADUALLY IMPROVES ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY
AS VFR CONDITIONS SPREAD E. W WINDS GUST O AROUND 20 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY
WHILE VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY. VFR CONTINUES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LEFTOVER -SN ENDS BY LATE
MORNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR / IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
WITH -SN. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH BLUSTERY S WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY W WINDS TO THE REAR.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DETERIORATING WITH PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES.
BLUSTERY S/SW WINDS WITH POTENTIAL LLWS IMPACTS...ALL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING OUT TO SEA. THIS
HAS BROUGHT AN AREA OF SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITY TO THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN WATERS.
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THIS WIND WILL HELP BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS...LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BLUSTERY S WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR TURBULENT SEAS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINING BREEZY.
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE WATERS.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STORM LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS WILL RENEW
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. SMALL-
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
907 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY AS A STORM PASSES
WELL OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRIER WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW MILDER
TEMPERATURES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER RETURNS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
905 AM UPDATE...
REPORTS SO FAR INDICATE WIDESPREAD 2-5 INCH TOTALS ON CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS WITH A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS...AND ABOUT 1 INCH BACK TO I-95
CORRIDOR.
BACK EDGE OF SNOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD COAST. MAIN BAND
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS
AFFECTING NANTUCKET BUT WAS NARROWING AS IT HEADS E. HRRR HAS A
GREAT HANDLE ON RADAR TRENDS AND IS WEIGHED HEAVILY INTO FORECAST
THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON CAPE
COD/NANTUCKET BEFORE SNOW ENDS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLEARING WAS ALREADY WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
REACH COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS IN TEENS TO AROUND
20 ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE AXIS
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL BRING LESS COLD AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MAKE
ROOM FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WHICH MEANS A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
WE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT YIELDS NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND TEENS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ALOFT
THURSDAY CLIMB TO AROUND -16C TO -17C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
- A STORM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...EXACT OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN
- COLD AND DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
- ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK
*/ OVERVIEW...
HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR ROUND
WHICH INCIPIENT DISTURBANCES WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CONSIDERING NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEAMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NORTHERN STREAM POLAR WAVES REMAIN
MOISTURE DEPRIVED BY THE MORE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME...WHEREAS SOUTHERN
STREAM PACIFIC WAVES ARE ABLE TO USURP WARM-MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF
NORTHWARD THEREBY ENHANCING THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WEST.
CONSEQUENTIAL INSIDE-RUNNER PATTERN OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
RESULT IN INITIAL PRECIP-TYPE CHALLENGES AS WARMER AIR OVERRUNS
LINGERING ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE...BUT SEEMINGLY AS COLDER AIR IS
SCOURED OUT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER-WET WEATHER TRENDS...FOLLOWED
BY THE REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REAR.
*/ MODEL PREFERENCE...
MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INCONSISTENCIES...NEVERTHELESS TRENDS ARE
WELL-ESTABLISHED AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. A CONSENSUS WEIGHTED
BLEND IS PREFERRED OUT THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE HELD UP FROM PROGRESSING FURTHER SOUTH.
WITH THE LOW CENTER SO FAR NORTH AND MODEST WAA / SOUTHERLY FLOW
STIFLES THE SAG OF THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC IS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST.
WITH BEST DYNAMICS / FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF MOISTURE /MORE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS/ HAVE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF
OUTCOMES FORCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/ MAINLY
THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES
AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE /FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME/. WILL PUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS N/W MA AND
S NH CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. LIGHT ACCUMS IF ANY. BLUSTERY SOUTH
WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WEST
WINDS AND CAA.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
A PAIRING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WHICH DO NOT
APPEAR TO PHASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF
THE TWO SEEMINGLY INDICATES THAT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR WAVE
RACES AHEAD CUTTING OFF FROM THE BETTER MOISTURE FLOW TO WHICH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC WAVE WITHIN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
RETAINS. SUBSEQUENTLY...PER INDICATIONS...THERE IS A BREAK IN THE
ACTION ACROSS THE NE CONUS. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INCONSISTENCIES
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE LEND TO UNCERTAINTY.
INITIAL CHALLENGES INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE INITIAL WARM-FRONT
AND PRECIP-TYPE CONSIDERATIONS /COULD BE TOO DRY OR PERHAPS PRECIP
WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT HEADLINES INITIALLY...NEVERTHELESS
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE PREVAILED SUCH
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST/. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS PREFERRED AS BRANCHING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS INVOKES A MODEST WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF
REGION INTO THE NE CONUS /SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS GETTING TO THE
SURFACE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE/...THIS LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. AGAIN...PRECIP-
TYPES AN ISSUE.
WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
AND INVOCATION OF A COASTAL LOW IN PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ALONG THE BETTER BAROCLINIC ZONE...SHOULD SEE AN END TO ACTIVITY BY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. COLD-AIR DAMMING SETUP
EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER INSIDE-RUNNER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT.
MIDWEEK...
A SECOND INSIDE-RUNNER LOW. LIKELY SOME INITIAL PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES
AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. WILL ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW AS
THE GREATEST DISPARITY AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS MAINLY WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING OF OUTCOMES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
1405Z UPDATE:
IFR/LIFR GRADUALLY IMPROVES ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY
AS VFR CONDITIONS SPREAD E. W WINDS GUST O AROUND 20 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY
WHILE VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY. VFR CONTINUES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LEFTOVER -SN ENDS BY LATE
MORNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR / IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
WITH -SN. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH BLUSTERY S WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY W WINDS TO THE REAR.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DETERIORATING WITH PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES.
BLUSTERY S/SW WINDS WITH POTENTIAL LLWS IMPACTS...ALL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING OUT TO SEA. THIS
HAS BROUGHT AN AREA OF SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITY TO THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN WATERS.
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THIS WIND WILL HELP BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS...LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BLUSTERY S WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR TURBULENT SEAS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINING BREEZY.
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE WATERS.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STORM LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS WILL RENEW
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. SMALL-
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
540 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING...CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
AND A DEEP DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP PLUME OF SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH IS NOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF SEEMS TO BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SUNCOAST CURRENTLY...HOWEVER THE DROP IN
DEWPOINTS IS LAGGING A BIG BEHIND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A MUCH
COOLER...DAMP...CLOUDY...AND SHOWERY PATTERN DESCENDING ON THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS...A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 40S IS OCCURRING UP BY CHIEFLAND. A COLD AND STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DRAIN MORE COLDER
AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO THE PENINSULA TODAY...AND WITH THE SHOWERS
FALLING...IT WILL BE QUITE A COOL DAY FOR FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF
I-4.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A RATHER MESSY PATTERN OF MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL...
WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOUR OR
SO (PERHAPS LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES). THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PUT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL IN THE
FORECAST...BUT DID THE BEST WE COULD TO ADD SOME DECISION MAKING
VALUE. THE ISSUE WILL BE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS NOT A SINGLE SHORTWAVE
ENTITY MOVING THROUGH...BUT RATHER A SERIES OF IMPULSES...SOME
STRONGER THAN OTHERS...THAT WILL BRING THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND
BATCHES OF SHOWERS. SO...THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL NOT BE RAINING
ALL THE TIME IN ANY ONE AREA (ACTUALLY FAR FROM IT)...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE A WETTING RAIN AT SOME POINT...AND HENCE THE LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES. BACKED AWAY FROM THE TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL MOS GUIDANCE
FOR THE RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY ACTUALLY. MOST OF THE RELIABLE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...BOTH FROM NCEP AND LOCALLY RUN...SHOW THE BEST
SHOWERS CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER THE NATURE COAST...WITH THE I-4
CORRIDOR BEING THE TRANSITION ZONES TO LESS SHOWER COVERAGE. USED
THIS CONSENSUS AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NATURE COAST AND THEN
TAPER RAIN CHANCES DOWN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS MAKES SINCE THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE FIRST PASSING SHORTWAVE IS MAXIMIZED OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES...ALONG WITH THE BETTER POSITIONS UNDERNEATH THE
RRQ OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER JET. LATER IN THE DAY...WOULD EXPECT
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SUNCOAST AND INLAND INTERIOR ZONES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE NOT MOVING MUCH TODAY. IN FACT...IF
ANYTHING WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME DROP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE RAINFALL WILL BE DESCENDING INTO A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE NORTH AND RESULT IN PERIODIC
WET-BULB INFLUENCES.
TONIGHT...MORE SHOWERS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING BY...AND
EVEN CLOSER THAN THE ONE TODAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A BROAD SWATH OF
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE/SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SEEING
THIS SETUP AS WELL...AS MOST OF THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE THE BEST RAIN
COVERAGE AFTER DARK. HAVE ESSENTIALLY JUST GIVEN A WIDESPREAD 60-70%
RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA. DO NOT LIKE TO "BROAD BRUSH" THE FORECAST
THAT MUCH...BUT THE PATTERN ALMOST INSISTS UPON IT. SO...IT WILL BE
A COOL...SHOWERY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE
40S...WITH NEAR 50 DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND IN THE 30S UP TOWARD
LEVY COUNTY. AS WAS TALKED ABOUT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
WET-BULB EFFECTS BRING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE UP TOWARD
CHIEFLAND EVER SO CLOSE TO SOME FREEZING RAIN POCKETS. SPENT ANOTHER
NIGHT SEARCHING OVER SOUNDING AFTER SOUNDING...AND IT SEEMS THAT FOR
NOW...TEMPS WILL STILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHILE ANY PRECIP IS
FALLING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ONE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN
PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ACTUALLY A DECENT PIECE
OF ENERGY...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER DECENT SWATH OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING PASSING OVER THE PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DRIER AIR AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
NATURE COAST...SO THE TREND WILL BE TO TAPER THE POPS OFF THROUGH
THE DAY TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL STAY IN THE
SHOWER ZONES WHERE THIS LIFT ENCOUNTERS STILL PLENTIFUL COLUMN
MOISTURE. FINALLY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL
PASS BY AND ALLOW LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO FINALLY MOVE OVERHEAD.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-4 DURING THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN
END RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A BIG WARMUP TAKES PLACE QUICKLY AFTER A COUPLE
OF COOL FLORIDA DAY. MANY SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUND SOME 10-15 OR MORE DEGREES BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE TALKING 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80 SOUTH UNDER A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS LOOK ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS FROM THE WESTERN TO THE CENTRAL CONUS
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER FL AND CUBA FROM THE ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC RIDGES TO THE SE U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WAVY TROUGH LIKE FEATURE LIFTS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS FL. FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES DOWN OVER CENTRAL FL AS A FRONT SAGS IN ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...GENERALLY STAYING NORTH OF THE
FL STATE LINE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...FROM 29/00Z...ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FL REGION. THE WAVY TROUGH BRINGS ENOUGH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT AND SUN...
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS MOISTURE DEPARTS MON-TUE
AND ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOWS RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE HIGHS REACH THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
29/06Z-30/06Z: EXPECT IFR TO LCL LIFR/IN A MIXTURE OF BR/FG WITH
STRATUS/ AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AND LATE NIGHT HOURS. BKN BANDS OF SHRA...ALONG A
SLOW MOVING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL...WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE
TERMINALS TODAY BUT LIMITED TO JUST VCSH. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHIFT
THROUGH THE WEST AND NW TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CLEAR THE FORECAST WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF
DENSE SEA FOG ALONG THE SUNCOAST WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT TO ADVISORY LEVELS WITH BUILDING SEAS.
THESE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING AND THEN SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD AND UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A MUCH
COOLER...DAMP...AND SHOWERY PATTERN FOR THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY
FOR JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. MIXING HEIGHTS AND RESULTING LDSI VALUES
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS
WILL END WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERABLE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER NO DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED AFTER THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 44 58 51 / 60 70 60 20
FMY 69 52 68 59 / 60 60 60 30
GIF 62 44 58 52 / 60 70 60 20
SRQ 62 46 62 54 / 60 70 60 20
BKV 55 42 55 46 / 60 70 50 10
SPG 60 47 59 53 / 60 70 60 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-DESOTO-HIGHLANDS-INLAND
CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
ISLAND SOUND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
756 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE PULLS
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING AN END TO THE WINTER STORM.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND...AND WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN-SITU ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEAST GA
FINALLY DROPPED BELOW FREEZING JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TODAY WHILE
CONTINUED PRECIP OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH OF THE PRECIP
HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF
WITH SOME SLEET MIXING IN. FARTHER NORTH WE HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW WITH A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN. THERE
WAS A LULL IN THE PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT A SECONDARY BAND
HAS SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE UP THE
SC/GA COAST THIS MORNING. WITH DEEP-LAYERED DRYING ACROSS INTERIOR
GA/SC AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
ZONES...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM STATESBORO TO HAMPTON
TO ST GEORGE. CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON AND
SAVANNAH METRO AREAS...THE FINAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST. WE
ARE SHOWING UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG OUR COAST. THE BRUNT OF ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW OR FREEZING
RAIN WILL LINGER AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MESOSCALE MODELS...AND EVEN MORE SO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS...
ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE NEAR-TERM PROGS. EVEN THE RUC13 IS
NOT INITIALIZING THE SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA BEING AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY WE DO NOT SEE MUCH HOPE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL
GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...ONLY PARTIAL MELTING IS EXPECTED
FOR EXISTING ACCUMULATIONS.
TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS
TO DEVELOP OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME MOISTURE
ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. FARTHER INLAND WE
EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER WINDS AND THUS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS INLAND AND CLOSE TO 30 AT THE COAST. THUS...ANY MELTED
WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL RE-FREEZE MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING AT LEAST UNTIL
THE CURRENT PRECIP TAPERS OFF. THERE IS A CHANCE WE WILL REPLACE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SIGNIFICANT BLACK ICE ISSUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM ONE THAT HAS BEEN
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LATELY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE
MOVING OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE
GULF...AND THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A 130 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET...WILL ASSIST
IN TRIGGERING ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WELL EAST OF THE SE COAST. WHILE THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE...ITS FORMATION DOES
PREVENT THE DEEPER DRIER AIR FROM PENETRATING TO OUR IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS FOUND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND ARCTIC HIGH.
GIVEN THAT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD THERE BE ANY SHIFT
WEST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE...THERE COULD BE A SMALL RISK FOR A
LITTLE FREEZING RAINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OF BIGGER CONCERN
HOWEVER WILL BE A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE MORNING WHERE THE STANDING
MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER WILL CREATE A SITUATION WHERE
BLACK ICE WILL BE COMMON ON UNTREATED SURFACES. OTHERWISE...THE AIR
MASS DOES START DRYING OUT WELL INLAND UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A SPRAWLING RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AIR
MASS MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AND THAT ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME
INSOLATION INLAND WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLY WARMER DAY...BUT STILL
FAR BELOW TYPICAL LATE JANUARY NORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SHOVE THE SURFACE
HIGH FURTHER EAST...WHICH IN TURN FORCES THE DRIER AIR TO PUSH
FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
20S MOST AREAS INLAND FROM US-17. RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE AIR MASS...AND THAT ALONG WITH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AND RISING HEIGHTS WITH A ZONAL FLOW UPSTAIRS WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE AREA WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
ATLANTIC...WHOSE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL STRETCH WESTWARD JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST ZONES. THIS POSITION OF THE HIGH ALLOWS FOR A
COASTAL TROUGH TO FORM OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM...STUCK FROM
SHIFTING WEST BY THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. THE ONSHORE FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE RISE IN TEMPS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS OUR REASONING FOR SHOWING SMALL
POPS ON SATURDAY...THANKFULLY IN LIQUID FORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A DE-AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ALOFT...WITH A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND BAHAMAS...WHILE A SPLIT FLOW FORMS OUT WEST. WE/LL BE
SITUATED WITHIN A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE...WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY THE COASTAL TROUGH FALLS APART AND ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. A SOUTH AND SW FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED INCREASED IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONGER WIND FIELDS IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS. WARM ADVECTION IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL
AND WE/LL ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS REACHING 70 IN SOME PLACES AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST...ALBEIT A
LOW END ONE...WILL BE THE RISK FOR SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND
EVENTUALLY MORE HUMID AIR OVER-RIDES THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TIMING IS SLOWER THAN WE SAW THIS
TIME YESTERDAY ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW HAVING DELAYED IT ABOUT
24 HOURS WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT KSAV AND KCHS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF. CEILINGS WILL
TEETER NEAR THE MVFR/IFR RANGE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
VFR WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND...OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE BETWEEN A
STALLED FRONT A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SE COAST AND AN ARCTIC
HIGH THAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE EAST AND SE STATES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED WITH
AS MUCH AS A 2-3 MB SPREAD FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.
THAT ALONG WITH BOUTS OF COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION
OF ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE
WILL BE ABOUT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THE 0-20 NM WATERS LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT COULD FALL JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT THIS IS
ONLY TEMPORARY. ON AVERAGE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH 20-25 KT AND
GUSTY BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
REACH AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT AND 8-9 FT NEAR 60 NM OUT
TODAY...BEFORE DROPPING AROUND A FOOT OR TWO TONIGHT/THURSDAY. AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL 0-20 NM LEGS
WILL COME DOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR LESS THAN 15-20 KT
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT A MIX OF WINTRY
WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE VASTLY
IMPROVED DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE LOCAL WATERS GENERALLY
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM OVER OR NEARBY...AND WILL PREVENT
WINDS FROM VEERING TOO QUICKLY. BUT ONCE WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY...THERE IS A LOW END RISK FOR SEA
FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...BUT TIMING OF THE
ACTUAL PASSAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION THIS FAR IN ADVANCE WITH
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF IT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE FELL JUST SHY OF THE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE...PEAKING AROUND 6.85 FT MLLW.
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK GIVEN THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES...SUGGESTING THAT SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MAY STILL
YET OCCUR WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 29TH...
KCHS...41 SET IN 2000.
KCHL...36 SET IN 1897.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1897.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ087-
088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...33/RJB
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...33
MARINE...33
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
915 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY PULLING A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG
THE COASTLINE AS OF THE MID MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE MAINLAND AS OF 14Z. THIS
PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 27 BELOW LAST NIGHT AT PITTSTON FARM.
PREV DISC...
UPDATED TO INCREASE CHC OF PRCP CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH NOW
PUTS PSM INTO A SLGT CHC. A FEW FLURRIES FELL EARLIER AND CIG HAS
LOWERED DUE TO PRCP FROM OCEAN LOW AND FNT TO THE SE. THE LOW AND
FNT ARE STILL WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACT
SHOULD STAY OFF THE COAST. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NE BRINGING
THE FNT OUT TO SEA WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONT TO HIGH AND SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS ALONG
THE COAST AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS TO THE N AND
W...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN SYSTEM.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRCP FROM THE OCEAN SYSTEM SINCE IT IS SO FAR
AWAY AND AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. ANY PRCP SHOWING UP ON RADAR WILL
REMAIN ALOFT OVER OUR COASTAL AND ADJACENT INTERIOR ZONES. SHOULD
SEE THE CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E DURING THE DAY AS THE
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE
SW.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 FOR NRN AREAS AND LOWER 20S
IN THE SOUTH. LGT WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG...THOUGH IT WILL CREATE A BIT OF A
WIND CHILL IT WON`T BE ANY WHERE NEAR CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANY
ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TNGT
THEN SLIDES OFF SHORE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TNGT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME MOSTLY LGT AND SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY CLR THOUGH PARTIAL CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO NORTH
TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. A FEW COLDER SPORTS UP
NORTH COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW COLDER
SPOTS IN THE SOUTH DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST WE GET A
RETURN FLOW OF S SW WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WARMING SW FLOW
ALOFT TO GIVE US MILDER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND IN THE 20S SOUTH. SOME COASTAL TOWNS
MAY APPROACH 30 DEGREES. THE WX SHOULD STAY DRY ON THURSDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
A SERIES OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. THE COLD WILL EASE BUT WE`LL ALSO TURN
WETTER AND STORMIER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY
PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS
SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SW TODAY AND TNGT THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY. PASSING OCEAN LOW AND FNT TODAY WILL NOT IMPACT THE FCST
AREA...EXCEPT IT HAS PRODUCED MVFR CIG AT PSM WHICH WILL CONT FOR
A FEW HOURS THEN IMPROVE.
LONG TERM...
FRI...SCT MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT PM - SUN AM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. ISSUED
AN SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATER TNGT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TNGT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATER ENHANCES WIND GUSTS.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE TNGT AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN.
SEAS WILL PICK UP TODAY THEN DROP OFF LATE TNGT...MORE SO OVER THE
OPEN WATERS THAN OVER THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY... THOUGH THE RETURN FLOW OF S SW WINDS PICKS UP LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAY CREATE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. WILL FCST
LGT FREEZING SPRAY TODAY AND TNGT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZING SPRAY ADV.
LONG TERM...
FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
SAT PM - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
536 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SLIGHTLY EXTENDED SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SNOW
MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS STARTING TO
LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE ROBUST. OUR PRIMARY SUSPECT IN THIS CASE CAN
BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H4-H3 PV ANALYSIS ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE WASH/BC
BORDER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME IN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT SURROUNDING
AROUND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD.
AS FOR THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...MODELS SIMILAR WITH SHOWING THE
WASH/BC PV FEATURE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THURSDAY MORNING ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF A 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK HEADING FOR IOWA...SO WE
WILL BE ADDING LEFT EXIT DYNAMICS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING.
AT THE SFC...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS ALBERTA WILL HAVE FOUND ITS WAY INTO NRN IOWA AND UP INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. OF MICH BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER FORCING
CATCHES UP WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY...WE SEE A GOOD AREA OF LIFT
BLOSSOM ALONG THE 295K THETA AS WARM AIR GETS PULLED UP AND OVER THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THE 295K SFC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT THE BEST FORCING IS CENTERED DOWN ALONG
THE IA BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 15Z. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT
WITH WHERE THE PV FEATURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS. TO NO SURPRISE...
SRN MN...BETWEEN ABOUT ST. PETER AND THE IA BORDER IS WHERE ALL
MODELS SHOW THE MOST QPF FALLING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A
QUARTER INCH OF QPF FALLING DOWN THERE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS AND
INDIVIDUAL SREF MEMBERS SHOW OVER A HALF INCH OF QPF FALLING IN THIS
AREA AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWS /6 INCHES/ DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. IN
FACT...THE PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE 29.03
SREF IS UP OVER 60 PERCENT DOWN BETWEEN ST. PETER AND IA. WHAT WAS
DONE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO BOOST POPS EVERYWHERE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND USED A BLEND OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR QPF. THIS RESULTED AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW
DOWN IN SRN MN...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES UP IN THE METRO THAT WILL FALL
DURING THE MORNING RUSH ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CERTAINLY
SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT 2 INCHES
OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH HERE WILL NOT CAUSE AS MANY PROBLEMS
AS THE 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EVENING RUSH IN ATLANTA DID
YESTERDAY.
WE DID HAVE SOME HEALTHY DISCUSSION THIS MORNING WITH DMX AND ARX
ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVY FOR THIS EVENT FOR A FEW REASONS. NUMBER
ONE...TIMING WISE THIS WILL IMPACT MORNING DRIVES INTO WORK/SCHOOL.
IN ADDITION...IF WE DO END UP SEEING SNOWFALL TOTALS UP CLOSER TO
THE 5 INCH MARK...THEN THAT MEANS WE WOULD BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES
UP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR. FINALLY...ON THE BACK END OF THE
SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...MEANING THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
CONCERNS AS WELL. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH AS TO JUST HOW
MUCH QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW THIS WILL PRODUCE...AS A RESULT WE
DECIDED THAT THERE WAS ENOUGH TIME WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY ON SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET ONE MORE LOOK AT MODEL RUNS BEFORE
DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
PAST THURSDAY/S SYSTEM...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHGS SOME. THE
MAIN CHG IS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FOR MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FROM THE ROCKIES TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD KEEP
THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHG RELATED TO THE UPPER JET WHICH HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERN JET COMPARED TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET. ALTHOUGH TWO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DO MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK...THIS IS
MAINLY REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. AS PER THE STRONGER SOUTHERN
JET TAKING PLACE THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE
ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
LOOKING AT NORMALIZED ANOMALY EXTREMES OFF THE GEFS FOR 92/85/70H
TEMPS...NO BIG COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED WITH ONLY THE TEMPORARY TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS BLW ZERO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ABV ZERO. THIS IS STILL WELL BLW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEKS. IF YOU COMPARE
THESE EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY WHERE TEMPS
FELL TO -23 AT MSP...THESE EXTREME VALUES WERE 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. NEXT WEEK THESE EXTREME VALUES ARE 1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE SPENT WITH VFR CONDS AND
INCREASING SW WINDS AS THE REGION SITS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND ACROSS MN AND
INTO WI OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER...SNOW WILL START TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. FOR THE SNOW...USED TIMING FROM THE SREF/NAM
TO BRING SNOW IN TO TERMINALS. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO IF DRY AIR CAN
BE OVERCOME AT AXN AND STC FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUGH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REST OF TERMINALS SEEING SNOW. THIS WILL BE
A QUICK HITTER...THOUGH HEAVY BURST OF SNOW. SNOW DOES NOT LOOK TO
LAST MUCH MORE THAN 6 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...BUT THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR FOR ABOUT 3 OF
THOSE HOURS.
KMSP...SNOW COMING IN THU MORNING LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 10Z AND
12Z. ONCE IT DOES MOVE IN...SHOULD WASTE NO TIME IN GETTING IFR
VSBYS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR MSP...MOST OF THIS
TIMED PERFECTLY WITH THE MORNING PUSH WITH RATES IN THE 3/4 INCH
PER HOUR RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL SEE STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TODAY. FROPA WILL COME IN THE 8-10Z PERIOD...WITH WINDS
QUICKLY TURNING TO THE NW IN ITS WAKE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...BCMG VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5KTS EARLY BCMG NW AT 10G15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
047>053-055>063-065>070-075>078-083>085-093.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SLIGHTLY EXTENDED SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SNOW
MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS STARTING TO
LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE ROBUST. OUR PRIMARY SUSPECT IN THIS CASE CAN
BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H4-H3 PV ANALYSIS ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE WASH/BC
BORDER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME IN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT SURROUNDING
AROUND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD.
AS FOR THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...MODELS SIMILAR WITH SHOWING THE
WASH/BC PV FEATURE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THURSDAY MORNING ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF A 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK HEADING FOR IOWA...SO WE
WILL BE ADDING LEFT EXIT DYNAMICS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING.
AT THE SFC...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS ALBERTA WILL HAVE FOUND ITS WAY INTO NRN IOWA AND UP INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. OF MICH BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER FORCING
CATCHES UP WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY...WE SEE A GOOD AREA OF LIFT
BLOSSOM ALONG THE 295K THETA AS WARM AIR GETS PULLED UP AND OVER THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THE 295K SFC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT THE BEST FORCING IS CENTERED DOWN ALONG
THE IA BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 15Z. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT
WITH WHERE THE PV FEATURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS. TO NO SURPRISE...
SRN MN...BETWEEN ABOUT ST. PETER AND THE IA BORDER IS WHERE ALL
MODELS SHOW THE MOST QPF FALLING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A
QUARTER INCH OF QPF FALLING DOWN THERE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS AND
INDIVIDUAL SREF MEMBERS SHOW OVER A HALF INCH OF QPF FALLING IN THIS
AREA AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWS /6 INCHES/ DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. IN
FACT...THE PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE 29.03
SREF IS UP OVER 60 PERCENT DOWN BETWEEN ST. PETER AND IA. WHAT WAS
DONE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO BOOST POPS EVERYWHERE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND USED A BLEND OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR QPF. THIS RESULTED AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW
DOWN IN SRN MN...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES UP IN THE METRO THAT WILL FALL
DURING THE MORNING RUSH ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CERTAINLY
SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT 2 INCHES
OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH HERE WILL NOT CAUSE AS MANY PROBLEMS
AS THE 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EVENING RUSH IN ATLANTA DID
YESTERDAY.
WE DID HAVE SOME HEALTHY DISCUSSION THIS MORNING WITH DMX AND ARX
ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVY FOR THIS EVENT FOR A FEW REASONS. NUMBER
ONE...TIMING WISE THIS WILL IMPACT MORNING DRIVES INTO WORK/SCHOOL.
IN ADDITION...IF WE DO END UP SEEING SNOWFALL TOTALS UP CLOSER TO
THE 5 INCH MARK...THEN THAT MEANS WE WOULD BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES
UP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR. FINALLY...ON THE BACK END OF THE
SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...MEANING THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
CONCERNS AS WELL. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH AS TO JUST HOW
MUCH QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW THIS WILL PRODUCE...AS A RESULT WE
DECIDED THAT THERE WAS ENOUGH TIME WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY ON SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET ONE MORE LOOK AT MODEL RUNS BEFORE
DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
PAST THURSDAY/S SYSTEM...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHGS SOME. THE
MAIN CHG IS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FOR MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FROM THE ROCKIES TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD KEEP
THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHG RELATED TO THE UPPER JET WHICH HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERN JET COMPARED TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET. ALTHOUGH TWO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DO MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK...THIS IS
MAINLY REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. AS PER THE STRONGER SOUTHERN
JET TAKING PLACE THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE
ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
LOOKING AT NORMALIZED ANOMALY EXTREMES OFF THE GEFS FOR 92/85/70H
TEMPS...NO BIG COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED WITH ONLY THE TEMPORARY TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS BLW ZERO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ABV ZERO. THIS IS STILL WELL BLW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEKS. IF YOU COMPARE
THESE EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY WHERE TEMPS
FELL TO -23 AT MSP...THESE EXTREME VALUES WERE 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. NEXT WEEK THESE EXTREME VALUES ARE 1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL FILL WITH HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SNOW PUSHING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY
AND GUST TO 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...LITTLE CONCERNS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF WHEN SNOW BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/-SN WITH IFR/LIFR AND SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW AT
5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W BECOMING NW AT 10G15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
047>053-055>063-065>070-075>078-083>085-093.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NO ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY
AND TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT A MOSAIC OF 88D RADARS ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...PCPN COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOME SINCE MIDNIGHT.
THE MAIN ACTIVITY LIES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD TO AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THE 0 TO 6KM LAYER MAX WET-BULB TEMP
FROM THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST IDEA WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE
FOR ALL SNOW AND THE WINTRY MIX RESIDES WITH SFC OBS FROM ACROSS
THE FA CONFIRMING. GOING WITH THIS IDEA...LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT WX TYPE FOR THE ILM CWA BY
DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME SNOW BANDING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AT THE MOMENT. THE QUESTION NOW RESIDES IS WHETHER THE
REMAINING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER UP A SNOW-BURST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA BEFORE IT ALL FINALLY COMES TO AN END
THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3
INCHES LOOKS LIKE WILL COVER IT. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...UP
TO 4 INCHES...REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK AND DO NOT SEE MUCH MELTING TO OCCUR. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ROADWAYS THAT ARE TREATED BY YOUR LOCAL
AND STATE DOT. BUT EVEN THESE TREATED AREAS MAY FREEZE BACK UP
TONIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT WINTER STORM THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE OF THE NORM...MOST WANT TO
KNOW ABOUT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE SHORT
ANSWER FOR MOST PLACES IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE MID TO UPPER 30S THE MELTING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE WELL OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FLUNG TOWARDS THE
COAST YIELDING A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND THEY MAY HAVE SOME DIURNAL VARIATION IN
PTYPE...BUT WITH SUCH DRY MID LEVELS THEY SHOULD ALSO BE TRACE
AMOUNTS IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP THE SNOWPACK/SLEET SHEET COMFORTABLY IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD KEEP NC COASTAL COUNTIES FROM GROWING AS
COLD AS OTHER REGIONS...STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. IT SEEMS MORE
LIKE FRIDAY THAT WE HAVE TO LOOK TO FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT...IF NOT
TOTAL MELTING OF THE SNOW AND ICE AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM UP TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50. MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO STAY A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH SOLAR INSOLATION GOING TO MELTING FOR PART OR
MOST OF THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF HIGH OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A WARMUP. MID LEVEL
RIDGE ALSO OFFSHORE GIVING A WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
OTHERWISE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND THIS COULD YIELD SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE FLUX BUT STILL FEEL SATURDAY REMAINS DRY IN THE ABSENCE OF
LIFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND PROBABLY ONLY SLOWLY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AT A VERY GRADUAL PACE. NO ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY AND SO TEMPERATURES MERELY GET KNOCKED DOWN FROM THE
WEEKEND WARMTH BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AS WINTRY PRECIP TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...MVFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY TONIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
WINTRY PRECIP...MAINLY -SN/-PL...WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...WITH -SNPL CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED AT KFLO...AND -SN AT KILM/KCRE. GIVEN LIGHT INTENSITY DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ATTM...BUT COULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PATCH. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF LOW CIGS WILL
ALLOW FOR MVFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS...NORTH WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
INLAND...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY. WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATE TODAY. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS BREACHING GALE FORCE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED ACROSS THE ILM WATERS TODAY...THEN RELAX ENOUGH
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO DROP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
WITH MAINLY A NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...SIGNIFICANT SEA GROWTH IS
NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DUE TO THE LIMITED FETCH FROM
THIS OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION. THE SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
MORNING ROUGHLY IN THE 4 TO 8 FOOT RANGE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO 3 TO 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO WHERE SCEC HEADLINES
ARE NEEDED DUE TO 5 FT SEAS ON THURSDAY. THE WATERS WILL FIND
THEMSELVES BETWEEN STRONG AREA OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND AND
A WAVE MOVING UP ARCTIC BOUNDARY A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE. THE
OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE WAVE
SHADOWING HOWEVER AND THE 5 FT SEAS MAY NOT TAKE UP ENOUGH OF THE
COASTAL ZONES TO WARRANT THE HEADLINES...USUALLY RESERVED FOR A 4 TO
5 FT FCST. THE WAVE SHADOWING IN OTHER WORDS WILL FAVOR 3 TO 5 FT.
THE EXIT OF THE WAVE AND THE INCREASED PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH BY
FRIDAY WILL DECREASE AND BACK THE WINDS AND ALLOW SEAS TO EASE
MAINLY IN THE PREVIOUSLY STIRRED UP OUTER REACHES OF THE 20 NM FCST
ZONES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE ARCTIC HIGH APPEARS
TO WASH OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE MAIN CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS WELL EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS THE WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY BUT
VERY SLOWLY AND THE DAYTIME CHANGE IN WIND/SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL.
BOTH SHOULD RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY
TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
516 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NO ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY
AND TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT A MOSAIC OF 88D RADARS ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...PCPN COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOME SINCE MIDNIGHT.
THE MAIN ACTIVITY LIES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD TO AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THE 0 TO 6KM LAYER MAX WET-BULB TEMP
FROM THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST IDEA WHERE THE DIVIDING LINE
FOR ALL SNOW AND THE WINTRY MIX RESIDES WITH SFC OBS FROM ACROSS
THE FA CONFIRMING. GOING WITH THIS IDEA...LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT WX TYPE FOR THE ILM CWA BY
DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME SNOW BANDING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AT THE MOMENT. THE QUESTION NOW RESIDES IS WHETHER THE
REMAINING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER UP A SNOW-BURST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA BEFORE IT ALL FINALLY COMES TO AN END
THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3
INCHES LOOKS LIKE WILL COVER IT. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...UP
TO 4 INCHES...REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK AND DO NOT SEE MUCH MELTING TO OCCUR. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ROADWAYS THAT ARE TREATED BY YOUR LOCAL
AND STATE DOT. BUT EVEN THESE TREATED AREAS MAY FREEZE BACK UP
TONIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT WINTER STORM THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE OF THE NORM...MOST WANT TO
KNOW ABOUT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE SHORT
ANSWER FOR MOST PLACES IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE MID TO UPPER 30S THE MELTING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE WELL OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FLUNG TOWARDS THE
COAST YIELDING A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE SOME VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND THEY MAY HAVE SOME DIURNAL VARIATION IN
PTYPE...BUT WITH SUCH DRY MID LEVELS THEY SHOULD ALSO BE TRACE
AMOUNTS IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP THE SNOWPACK/SLEET SHEET COMFORTABLY IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD KEEP NC COASTAL COUNTIES FROM GROWING AS
COLD AS OTHER REGIONS...STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. IT SEEMS MORE
LIKE FRIDAY THAT WE HAVE TO LOOK TO FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT...IF NOT
TOTAL MELTING OF THE SNOW AND ICE AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM UP TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50. MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO STAY A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH SOLAR INSOLATION GOING TO MELTING FOR PART OR
MOST OF THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF HIGH OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A WARMUP. MID LEVEL
RIDGE ALSO OFFSHORE GIVING A WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
OTHERWISE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND THIS COULD YIELD SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE FLUX BUT STILL FEEL SATURDAY REMAINS DRY IN THE ABSENCE OF
LIFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND PROBABLY ONLY SLOWLY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AT A VERY GRADUAL PACE. NO ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY AND SO TEMPERATURES MERELY GET KNOCKED DOWN FROM THE
WEEKEND WARMTH BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...RADAR...SURFACE OBS AND PUBLIC REPORTS INDICATE SNOW IS
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AT KLBT/KFLO...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT -SN TO CONTINUE AT
KLBT AND KFLO THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND TEMPO IFR
CIGS AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER AREAS OF SNOW. SLEET WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION TO A BRIEF SLEET/SNOW MIX AT KILM...KCRE AND KMYR BY 12Z.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS
IN MODERATE SLEET/SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ALONG THE COAST
BY 15Z OR SO. NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT. VFR WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MVFR CIGS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT EXPECT VFR AT
ALL SITES BY 00Z THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY. WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATE TODAY. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS BREACHING GALE FORCE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED ACROSS THE ILM WATERS TODAY...THEN RELAX ENOUGH
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO DROP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
WITH MAINLY A NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...SIGNIFICANT SEA GROWTH IS
NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DUE TO THE LIMITED FETCH FROM
THIS OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION. THE SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
MORNING ROUGHLY IN THE 4 TO 8 FOOT RANGE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO 3 TO 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO WHERE SCEC HEADLINES
ARE NEEDED DUE TO 5 FT SEAS ON THURSDAY. THE WATERS WILL FIND
THEMSELVES BETWEEN STRONG AREA OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND AND
A WAVE MOVING UP ARCTIC BOUNDARY A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE. THE
OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE WAVE
SHADOWING HOWEVER AND THE 5 FT SEAS MAY NOT TAKE UP ENOUGH OF THE
COASTAL ZONES TO WARRANT THE HEADLINES...USUALLY RESERVED FOR A 4 TO
5 FT FCST. THE WAVE SHADOWING IN OTHER WORDS WILL FAVOR 3 TO 5 FT.
THE EXIT OF THE WAVE AND THE INCREASED PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH BY
FRIDAY WILL DECREASE AND BACK THE WINDS AND ALLOW SEAS TO EASE
MAINLY IN THE PREVIOUSLY STIRRED UP OUTER REACHES OF THE 20 NM FCST
ZONES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE ARCTIC HIGH APPEARS
TO WASH OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE MAIN CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS WELL EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS THE WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY BUT
VERY SLOWLY AND THE DAYTIME CHANGE IN WIND/SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL.
BOTH SHOULD RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY
TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
957 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
14 UTC RAP STILL SHOWING 925 HPA SOUTHWEST WIND FROM 45 TO 50 KTS
CUTTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18 UTC AND THIS IS
VERIFIED BY LATEST WSR-88D VAD PROFILE WHICH SHOWS 50 KTS AT 2000
FT AGL. LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...HOWEVER...IS TOO STRONG SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS TO REFLECT MUCH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ONCE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 900 HPA THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING
WINDS DROP TO AROUND 25 KTS...SO HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND TODAY TO
BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ND. DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S
WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES/WIND/SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
A FEW AREAS REMAIN IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 12Z...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AND ALLOWED ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL NOT SURE HOW DEEP WE
WILL BE ABLE TO MIX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAP HAS INCREASED
950MB-925MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA
(INDICATING 925MB WINDS 45-50 KNOTS). SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
WIND CHILLS STILL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY...BUT STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXPIRATION OF 12Z.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
PLACE THE REGION IN A WARMER AIRMASS TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE MINOR CONCERNS WITH WIND SPEED. FIRST...IN THE WARM
SECTOR...MODELS INDICATE THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 925MB WINDS WILL BE
40-50 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS (SUCH AS EAST OF THE VALLEY)
MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. WILL
MONITOR...BUT EVEN IF SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE
FORECAST...ADDITIONAL HAZARDS WOULD BE MINOR. SECOND...WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS INDICATE BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL...BUT 925MB WINDS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS. WITH EACH
SCENARIO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW (ALTHOUGH DRIFTING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE). REGION IS BACK IN A COLDER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...AND
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL AGAIN BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS THAT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ESCORT A SERIES
OF DRY FROPAS FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SHOTS OF CANADIAN AIRMASSES.
AS A RESULT A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
STORM TRACK AND ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE WIND SPEEDS AND WIND SHIFT TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL
AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
A FEW AREAS REMAIN IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 12Z...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AND ALLOWED ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL NOT SURE HOW DEEP WE
WILL BE ABLE TO MIX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAP HAS INCREASED
950MB-925MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA
(INDICATING 925MB WINDS 45-50 KNOTS). SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
WIND CHILLS STILL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY...BUT STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXPIRATION OF 12Z.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
PLACE THE REGION IN A WARMER AIRMASS TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE MINOR CONCERNS WITH WIND SPEED. FIRST...IN THE WARM
SECTOR...MODELS INDICATE THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 925MB WINDS WILL BE
40-50 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS (SUCH AS EAST OF THE VALLEY)
MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. WILL
MONITOR...BUT EVEN IF SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE
FORECAST...ADDITIONAL HAZARDS WOULD BE MINOR. SECOND...WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS INDICATE BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL...BUT 925MB WINDS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS. WITH EACH
SCENARIO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW (ALTHOUGH DRIFTING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE). REGION IS BACK IN A COLDER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...AND
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL AGAIN BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS THAT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ESCORT A SERIES
OF DRY FROPAS FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SHOTS OF CANADIAN AIRMASSES.
AS A RESULT A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
STORM TRACK AND ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE WIND SPEEDS AND WIND SHIFT TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL
AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1105 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY
ADJUSTED GRIDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS LOWERING TEMPS A FEW NOTCHES
WHILE ALSO RELAXING WINDS SLIGHTLY. NOT MUCH EFFECT ON WIND CHILL
INDEX SO ADVISORY STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION
AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR
MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE
THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON
THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS
MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS.
WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN
ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE
WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH
NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN
COOLER.
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF...
CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE
TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES
NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL
GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION
THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE
REGION.
OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE
REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A
RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE
ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY
BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL
REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL
HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE
THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN
FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
RADAR INDICATES THAT ORGANIZED SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS. EVEN THESE WILL DIMINISH
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL...AND SHOULD SEE SKC
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. KBLF WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND PINS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS
WILL ERODE BY AROUND 15Z. MAY EXPERIENCE THE OCCASIONAL 15KT GUST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH VFR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN A SOUTHERLY
SHIFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE REGION EXPERIENCES SOME RELIEF. HERE ARE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 30TH...
TEMP YEAR
ROANOKE31966
LYNCHBURG41934
DANVILLE81966
BLACKSBURG-101966
BLUEFIELD-111966
LEWISBURG 7 2004
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/PM
CLIMATE...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1005 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY
ADJUSTED GRIDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS LOWERING TEMPS A FEW NOTCHES
WHILE ALSO RELAXING WINDS SLIGHTLY. NOT MUCH EFFECT ON WIND CHILL
INDEX SO ADVISORY STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION
AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR
MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE
THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON
THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS
MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS.
WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN
ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE
WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH
NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN
COOLER.
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF...
CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE
TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES
NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL
GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION
THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE
REGION.
OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE
REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A
RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE
ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY
BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL
REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL
HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE
THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN
FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
RADAR INDICATES THAT ORGANIZED SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS. EVEN THESE WILL DIMINISH
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL...AND SHOULD SEE SKC
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. KBLF WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND PINS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS
WILL ERODE BY AROUND 15Z. MAY EXPERIENCE THE OCCASIONAL 15KT GUST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH VFR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN A SOUTHERLY
SHIFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
603 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR
MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE
THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON
THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS
MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS.
WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN
ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE
WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH
NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN
COOLER.
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF...
CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE
TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES
NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL
GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION
THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE
REGION.
OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE
REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A
RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE
ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY
BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL
REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL
HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE
THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN
FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
RADAR INDICATES THAT ORGANIZED SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE WEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS. EVEN THESE WILL DIMINISH
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL...AND SHOULD SEE SKC
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. KBLF WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND PINS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS
WILL ERODE BY AROUND 15Z. MAY EXPERIENCE THE OCCASIONAL 15KT GUST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH VFR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN A SOUTHERLY
SHIFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
514 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N ON FRIDAY...AND STALLS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...IT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
515PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POP FORECAST.
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
WESTERLY WINDS CAUSE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS IN COORDINATION WITH A
PASSING TROUGH. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
THEIR WAY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE COASTLINE.
WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL APPROACH 20
BELOW IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE
ISOLATED...SO WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD REGION OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY.
IT WILL FEEL MUCH MILDER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP UP TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL +PNA PATTERN AT 500 MB CONTINUES...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE MEAN TROUGHINESS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS EVERY DAY OR TWO...BUT NO BIG
STORMS IN SIGHT. THE RIDGING REACHING POLEWARD ACROSS ALASKA
WILL CUT OFF THE COLDEST HEMISPHERIC AIR...HOLDING OVER SIBERIA
INTO NEXT WEEK. SO...IT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE TRENDING TO A PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WE GET INTO SOME
STAGNANT FLOW AT LOW LEVELS... AND THE MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
WELL LINED UP. A WEAKENING 500 MB WAVE TRACKS JUST TO OUR NORTH
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE... WHERE IT LOOKS TO STALL THROUGH
SATURDAY... WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS... MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY... WHICH IS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION... WHICH WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW... EXCEPT SOME RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT SHOULD START TO
CLEAR OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WITH SOME COOLER AIR IN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK... BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
SURFACE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR ON FRIDAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
PERSISTING THRU MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH GRADIENT INCREASING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING...WILL LEAVE SCAS UP FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...SCA WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH ON FRIDAY... WITH FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF WINTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
303 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N ON FRIDAY...AND STALLS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...IT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
THEIR WAY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE COASTLINE.
WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL APPROACH 20
BELOW IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE
ISOLATED...SO WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACH OF
A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY.
IT WILL FEEL MUCH MILDER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP UP TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL +PNA PATTERN AT 500 MB CONTINUES...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC INTO
ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE MEAN TROUGHINESS IN PLACE OVER ERN
NOAM...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS EVERY DAY OR TWO...BUT NO BIG STORMS IN
SIGHT. THE RIDGING REACHING POLEWARD ACROSS ALASKA WILL CUT OFF
THE COLDEST HEMISPHERIC AIR...HOLDING OVER SIBERIA INTO NEXT WEEK.
SO...IT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE TRENDING TO A PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AS WE GET INTO SOME
STAGNANT FLOW AT LOW LVLS...AND THE MID-HIGH LVL FLOW BECOMES
WELL LINED UP. A WEAKENING 500 MB WAVE TRACKS JUST TO OUR N LATE
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SF COLD FRONT S INTO NRN
ME...WHERE IT LOOKS TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY....WHICH COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHSN...MAINLY IN THE N. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK EWD
ALONG THE FRONT LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH IS THE BETTER
CHC FOR PRECIP...WHICH WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...EXCEPT SOME RAIN MAY
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT SHOULD START TO CLEAR
OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME COOLER AIR IN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO
BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS SFC TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR ON FRI...THEN POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER IN SN SAT NIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SUN AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THRU MON.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH GRADIENT INCREASING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING...WILL LEAVE SCAS UP FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...SCA WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH ON FRI...WITH FAIRLY QUIET CONDS
FOR THE MIDDLE OF WINTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1217 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY PULLING A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
REMAIN ARE NOW OFF THE COASTLINE. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST...ALLOWING FOR FULL SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE MAINLAND AS OF 14Z. THIS
PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 27 BELOW LAST NIGHT AT PITTSTON FARM.
PREV DISC...
UPDATED TO INCREASE CHC OF PRCP CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH NOW
PUTS PSM INTO A SLGT CHC. A FEW FLURRIES FELL EARLIER AND CIG HAS
LOWERED DUE TO PRCP FROM OCEAN LOW AND FNT TO THE SE. THE LOW AND
FNT ARE STILL WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACT
SHOULD STAY OFF THE COAST. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NE BRINGING
THE FNT OUT TO SEA WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONT TO HIGH AND SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS ALONG
THE COAST AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS TO THE N AND
W...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN SYSTEM.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRCP FROM THE OCEAN SYSTEM SINCE IT IS SO FAR
AWAY AND AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. ANY PRCP SHOWING UP ON RADAR WILL
REMAIN ALOFT OVER OUR COASTAL AND ADJACENT INTERIOR ZONES. SHOULD
SEE THE CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY EXITING TO THE E DURING THE DAY AS THE
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE
SW.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 FOR NRN AREAS AND LOWER 20S
IN THE SOUTH. LGT WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG...THOUGH IT WILL CREATE A BIT OF A
WIND CHILL IT WON`T BE ANY WHERE NEAR CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANY
ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TNGT
THEN SLIDES OFF SHORE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TNGT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME MOSTLY LGT AND SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY CLR THOUGH PARTIAL CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO NORTH
TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. A FEW COLDER SPORTS UP
NORTH COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW COLDER
SPOTS IN THE SOUTH DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST WE GET A
RETURN FLOW OF S SW WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WARMING SW FLOW
ALOFT TO GIVE US MILDER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND IN THE 20S SOUTH. SOME COASTAL TOWNS
MAY APPROACH 30 DEGREES. THE WX SHOULD STAY DRY ON THURSDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
A SERIES OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. THE COLD WILL EASE BUT WE`LL ALSO TURN
WETTER AND STORMIER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. IN THE DAILIES...A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY
PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS
SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SW TODAY AND TNGT THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY. PASSING OCEAN LOW AND FNT TODAY WILL NOT IMPACT THE FCST
AREA...EXCEPT IT HAS PRODUCED MVFR CIG AT PSM WHICH WILL CONT FOR
A FEW HOURS THEN IMPROVE.
LONG TERM...
FRI...SCT MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT PM - SUN AM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. ISSUED
AN SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATER TNGT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TNGT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATER ENHANCES WIND GUSTS.
WINDS DROP OFF LATE TNGT AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN.
SEAS WILL PICK UP TODAY THEN DROP OFF LATE TNGT...MORE SO OVER THE
OPEN WATERS THAN OVER THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY... THOUGH THE RETURN FLOW OF S SW WINDS PICKS UP LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAY CREATE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. WILL FCST
LGT FREEZING SPRAY TODAY AND TNGT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZING SPRAY ADV.
LONG TERM...
FRI...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
SAT PM - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1235 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
THE COLD WEATHER WILL EASE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 TODAY...THEN INTO THE 20S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SNOW WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MID DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS NORTH AND WEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WHICH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL
WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS BY THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE.
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
A DECENT AMOUNT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ONGOING AT MIDDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN A CORRIDOR
DOWNWIND OF THE LONGEST FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. SO...FROM HOLLAND AND MUSKEGON TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
GRAND RAPIDS AND IONIA OVER TOWARDS ALMA WE ARE SEEING A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW.
THE HRRR SHOWS THE GUSTS SETTLING DOWN EACH HOUR THOUGH AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY 400PM IT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED DOWN
QUITE A BIT...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING GUSTS COMING DOWN UNDER 20
KNOTS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. GIVEN THE WIND IS AT ITS PEAK TODAY WILL
NOT HOIST ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE FOR THE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY FALLING SNOW AND WE HAVE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 7 MILES
ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...IONIA IS AT 3/4 OF A MILE. LOCALLY
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOR AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DOWN WIND OF OPEN
FIELDS.
STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...IN TERMS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WILL BE LOOKING INTO THIS FURTHER THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THERE
WILL STILL BE ISSUES WITH DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS TODAY...BUT
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL. THE WIND CHILL WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE EXTENDED BITTER COLD. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE THAT SPARKED THE INCREASED COVERAGE LATE LAST NIGHT HAS
MOVED EAST. MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WAVE IS VERY SHALLOW...AND ALONG
WITH LIMITED LIFT...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH.
OPEN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES WITH A SW WIND
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
IT SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET TONIGHT AS WE WARM ALOFT AND SEE THE LAST
OF ANY LAKE EFFECT END. THE ONLY ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE BRISK SSW WINDS STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH.
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BY MID DAY THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT MOVES
IN RIGHT AROUND THE EVENING COMMUTE TIME WHEN THE STEADIEST SNOWS
SHOULD BE OCCURRING. ON TOP OF THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN THE GUSTY SSW
WINDS...MAKING FOR CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THE WINDS DO
FINALLY DROP OFF AS THE BAGGY GRADIENT MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT
THURSDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH SOME WSW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD PUT DOWN 3 TO 5 INCHES WEST AND NORTH
OF GRR...AND GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THE EVENT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM ROUGHLY
MID THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT CROSS THE CWA...SO HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO FRIDAY SOUTH OF I-96.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE
HAVE A SHOT AT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DROPPING SNOW ON
SATURDAY AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 4 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND PROBABLY BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014
THE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
BE WINDS AND RESULTING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AS OF 17Z THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF WIND
MOVES OUT. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF INLAND THIS EVENING
FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER CORE OF WIND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND WIND GUSTS
WILL PICK UP EVERYONE ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z
THU AND INCREASE TO 35+ KNOTS BY THEN.
VSBYS ARE NOT REALLY BEING IMPACTED PER THE LATEST OBS AROUND THE
AREA. KGRR IS REPORTING 4SM WITH BLSN. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY HOW MUCH VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED. WE HAVE TRENDED VSBYS DOWN WITH
BLSN IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND THU IN CONCERT WITH THE INCREASE
IN WINDS.
SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 2500 FT REMAINS
AT THE TERMINALS NORTH OF I-94 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. SOME HIGH
AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING. FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THU...BUT AFTER THE
VALID PERIOD OF THIS SET OF FCSTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
EXTENDED THE SCA AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING INTO TONIGHT.
THEN WE SHOULD REACH SSW GALES BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF
THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
NO REAL CHANGES REGARDING HYDRO ISSUES. A FEW SITES ARE SHOWING SOME
ICE AFFECTED SPIKES OCCASIONALLY...BUT ALL RIVER GAGING SITES ARE
SHOWING FLAT GRAPHS WELL BELOW ADVISORY STAGE. THE ICE IS LOCKED IN
AND NOT CHANGING MUCH GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WE ARE
GROWING IT. GIVEN THE CONSTANT COLD WEATHER RIVER ICE IS EXPANDING
IN DEPTH WHICH MAY BECOME A PROBLEM WHEN WE WARM UP DOWN THE ROAD.
THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY RISE WAS ROCKFORD WHICH JUMPED 2 FEET
YESTERDAY AND THEN LEVELED OFF. WE ARE MONITORING THAT SPOT...BUT
ALL OTHERS ARE STABLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
THE COLD WEATHER WILL EASE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 TODAY...THEN INTO THE 20S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SNOW WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MID DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS NORTH AND WEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WHICH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL
WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS BY THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE.
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVES BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
A DECENT AMOUNT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ONGOING AT MIDDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN A CORRIDOR
DOWNWIND OF THE LONGEST FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. SO...FROM HOLLAND AND MUSKEGON TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
GRAND RAPIDS AND IONIA OVER TOWARDS ALMA WE ARE SEEING A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW.
THE HRRR SHOWS THE GUSTS SETTLING DOWN EACH HOUR THOUGH AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY 400PM IT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED DOWN
QUITE A BIT...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING GUSTS COMING DOWN UNDER 20
KNOTS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. GIVEN THE WIND IS AT ITS PEAK TODAY WILL
NOT HOIST ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE FOR THE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY FALLING SNOW AND WE HAVE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 7 MILES
ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...IONIA IS AT 3/4 OF A MILE. LOCALLY
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOR AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DOWN WIND OF OPEN
FIELDS.
STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...IN TERMS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WILL BE LOOKING INTO THIS FURTHER THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THERE
WILL STILL BE ISSUES WITH DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS TODAY...BUT
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL. THE WIND CHILL WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE EXTENDED BITTER COLD. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE THAT SPARKED THE INCREASED COVERAGE LATE LAST NIGHT HAS
MOVED EAST. MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WAVE IS VERY SHALLOW...AND ALONG
WITH LIMITED LIFT...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH.
OPEN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES WITH A SW WIND
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
IT SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET TONIGHT AS WE WARM ALOFT AND SEE THE LAST
OF ANY LAKE EFFECT END. THE ONLY ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE BRISK SSW WINDS STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH.
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BY MID DAY THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT MOVES
IN RIGHT AROUND THE EVENING COMMUTE TIME WHEN THE STEADIEST SNOWS
SHOULD BE OCCURRING. ON TOP OF THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN THE GUSTY SSW
WINDS...MAKING FOR CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THE WINDS DO
FINALLY DROP OFF AS THE BAGGY GRADIENT MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT
THURSDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH SOME WSW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD PUT DOWN 3 TO 5 INCHES WEST AND NORTH
OF GRR...AND GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THE EVENT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM ROUGHLY
MID THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT CROSS THE CWA...SO HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO FRIDAY SOUTH OF I-96.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE
HAVE A SHOT AT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DROPPING SNOW ON
SATURDAY AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 4 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL STATES IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND PROBABLY BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO FLURRIES AND DECK OF
STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WEST MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING GOING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014
EXTENDED THE SCA AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING INTO TONIGHT.
THEN WE SHOULD REACH SSW GALES BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF
THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
NO REAL CHANGES REGARDING HYDRO ISSUES. A FEW SITES ARE SHOWING SOME
ICE AFFECTED SPIKES OCCASIONALLY...BUT ALL RIVER GAGING SITES ARE
SHOWING FLAT GRAPHS WELL BELOW ADVISORY STAGE. THE ICE IS LOCKED IN
AND NOT CHANGING MUCH GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WE ARE
GROWING IT. GIVEN THE CONSTANT COLD WEATHER RIVER ICE IS EXPANDING
IN DEPTH WHICH MAY BECOME A PROBLEM WHEN WE WARM UP DOWN THE ROAD.
THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY RISE WAS ROCKFORD WHICH JUMPED 2 FEET
YESTERDAY AND THEN LEVELED OFF. WE ARE MONITORING THAT SPOT...BUT
ALL OTHERS ARE STABLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SLIGHTLY EXTENDED SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SNOW
MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS STARTING TO
LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE ROBUST. OUR PRIMARY SUSPECT IN THIS CASE CAN
BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H4-H3 PV ANALYSIS ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE WASH/BC
BORDER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE COME IN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT SURROUNDING
AROUND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD.
AS FOR THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...MODELS SIMILAR WITH SHOWING THE
WASH/BC PV FEATURE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THURSDAY MORNING ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF A 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK HEADING FOR IOWA...SO WE
WILL BE ADDING LEFT EXIT DYNAMICS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING.
AT THE SFC...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS ALBERTA WILL HAVE FOUND ITS WAY INTO NRN IOWA AND UP INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. OF MICH BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER FORCING
CATCHES UP WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY...WE SEE A GOOD AREA OF LIFT
BLOSSOM ALONG THE 295K THETA AS WARM AIR GETS PULLED UP AND OVER THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THE 295K SFC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT THE BEST FORCING IS CENTERED DOWN ALONG
THE IA BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 15Z. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT
WITH WHERE THE PV FEATURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS. TO NO SURPRISE...
SRN MN...BETWEEN ABOUT ST. PETER AND THE IA BORDER IS WHERE ALL
MODELS SHOW THE MOST QPF FALLING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A
QUARTER INCH OF QPF FALLING DOWN THERE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS AND
INDIVIDUAL SREF MEMBERS SHOW OVER A HALF INCH OF QPF FALLING IN THIS
AREA AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWS /6 INCHES/ DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. IN
FACT...THE PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE 29.03
SREF IS UP OVER 60 PERCENT DOWN BETWEEN ST. PETER AND IA. WHAT WAS
DONE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO BOOST POPS EVERYWHERE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND USED A BLEND OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR QPF. THIS RESULTED AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW
DOWN IN SRN MN...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES UP IN THE METRO THAT WILL FALL
DURING THE MORNING RUSH ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CERTAINLY
SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT 2 INCHES
OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH HERE WILL NOT CAUSE AS MANY PROBLEMS
AS THE 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EVENING RUSH IN ATLANTA DID
YESTERDAY.
WE DID HAVE SOME HEALTHY DISCUSSION THIS MORNING WITH DMX AND ARX
ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVY FOR THIS EVENT FOR A FEW REASONS. NUMBER
ONE...TIMING WISE THIS WILL IMPACT MORNING DRIVES INTO WORK/SCHOOL.
IN ADDITION...IF WE DO END UP SEEING SNOWFALL TOTALS UP CLOSER TO
THE 5 INCH MARK...THEN THAT MEANS WE WOULD BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES
UP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR. FINALLY...ON THE BACK END OF THE
SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...MEANING THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
CONCERNS AS WELL. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH AS TO JUST HOW
MUCH QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW THIS WILL PRODUCE...AS A RESULT WE
DECIDED THAT THERE WAS ENOUGH TIME WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY ON SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT GET ONE MORE LOOK AT MODEL RUNS BEFORE
DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
PAST THURSDAY/S SYSTEM...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHGS SOME. THE
MAIN CHG IS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH A MORE
POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FOR MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FROM THE ROCKIES TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD KEEP
THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHG RELATED TO THE UPPER JET WHICH HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERN JET COMPARED TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET. ALTHOUGH TWO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DO MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK...THIS IS
MAINLY REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. AS PER THE STRONGER SOUTHERN
JET TAKING PLACE THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE
ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
LOOKING AT NORMALIZED ANOMALY EXTREMES OFF THE GEFS FOR 92/85/70H
TEMPS...NO BIG COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED WITH ONLY THE TEMPORARY TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS BLW ZERO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ABV ZERO. THIS IS STILL WELL BLW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEKS. IF YOU COMPARE
THESE EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY WHERE TEMPS
FELL TO -23 AT MSP...THESE EXTREME VALUES WERE 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL. NEXT WEEK THESE EXTREME VALUES ARE 1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014
VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL
REMAIN ON TRACK TO BEGIN GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
QUICKLY CLIMBED AS EXPECTED...AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...MOST HEAVILY IMPACTING THE TC METRO AND AREAS SOUTH TO THE
IOWA BORDER. TERMINALS IN THIS REGION CAN GENERALLY EXPECT 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW...PRIMARILY COMING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW.
CIGS WILL LIKELY TO DROP TO LIFR FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME
PERIOD. STC AND AXN REMAIN A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TO BE AS HEAVILY
IMPACTED...AND WILL SEE LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS AND BETTER OVERALL
CIGS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE INCOMING
FRONT. THE SNOW WILL END BY ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY AND VFR CIGS
WILL QUICKLY RETURN UNDER CAA AND CLEARING SKIES WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS.
KMSP...1230Z TO 1500Z LOOKS TO BE LIFR WITH MOST OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
TODAY HAS INCREASED OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY AND TIMING
OF THIS INCOMING SNOW. DO EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 1K FT DURING THIS PERIOD. TOMORROW AFTN WILL SEE MAJOR
IMPROVEMENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS. TURNING COLD.
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5KTS EARLY BCMG NW AT 10G15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
326 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND COLD
NORTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAW...BUT RECENT TRENDS HAVE PUSHED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FARTHER NORTH. 19UTC RAP/HR RR ARE EVEN FARTHER NORTH PUSHING
NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VERY LIGHT RETURNS...LIKELY NOT HITTING
THE GROUND ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...AS WELL AS
FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA...HINTING THE FARTHER NORTH MESCAL MODELS
MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. 12 UTC NAM/GS BU FR DATA INDICATE A PERIOD OF
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WITHIN A WELL SATURATED LAYER. THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE PRECIPITATION AREA FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS/PF AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING GOLVA...HETTINGER...MARMARTH AND BOWMAN. AND
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
BOWMAN COUNTY. AMOUNTS TAPER TO AROUND AN INCH FROM BEACH TO
DICKINSON...EL GIN AND ASHLEY. AND A HALF INCH OR LESS FROM WAT FORD
CITY TO BISMARCK AND ELLEN DALE.
ACROSS THE NORTH..COLD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. FOR NOW WILL ONLY GO THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TOMORROW WITH
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES SOUTH AND WEST ADDED ON AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES
OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE COLD WEATHER AND
ASSOCIATED WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES.
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE REGIONS WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD INFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE H500 IMPULSES WILL
MAINTAIN A COLD EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY REGIME IN
THE EXTENDED.
COLD WIND CHILLS...CLOSE TO AND WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA...LOOK POSSIBLE
DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS INTO THE MORNING THROUGH THE EXTENDED
STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AREAS ALONG...NORTH...AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER COULD GET WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TADS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014
COLD FR NT HAS MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WILLISTON AND MINOT AROUND 18Z...BUT HAVE
ALREADY SCATTERED OUT. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS YET THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT A SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. 12 UTC MODEL SUITE KEEP ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS IN LIGHT SNOW WAS ADDED TO KDIK AROUND 03-08 UTC.
WILL INFORM THE EVENING SHIFT OF CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS INTO KISN AND KB IS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
ND001>005-010>013-023-025.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWA
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
114 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR ROSEAU TO CROOKSTON TO
CASSELTON WHILE THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN WITH ITS LEADING EDGE FROM CAVALIER TO NEAR CARRINGTON.
NORTHWEST WIND ALONG AND RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH
30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS WAS THE CASE AT DEVILS LAKE...RUGBY AND
CARRINGTON. HOWEVER...RAP 925 HPA WINDS STILL DECREASE TO AROUND
25 KTS BY MID-AFTERNOON...SO SURFACE WINDS IN THE 15 O 25 MPH
RANGE SEEM REASONABLE. COULD BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW...BUT ASOS/AWOS
VISIBILITY GENERALLY 10 SM. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BEHIND THE FRONT WHEREAS AREAS DOWNSTREAM WILL STILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ONCE SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH
MINIMAL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
14 UTC RAP STILL SHOWING 925 HPA SOUTHWEST WIND FROM 45 TO 50 KTS
CUTTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18 UTC AND THIS IS
VERIFIED BY LATEST WSR-88D VAD PROFILE WHICH SHOWS 50 KTS AT 2000
FT AGL. LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...HOWEVER...IS TOO STRONG SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS TO REFLECT MUCH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ONCE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 900 HPA THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING
WINDS DROP TO AROUND 25 KTS...SO HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND TODAY TO
BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ND. DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S
WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES/WIND/SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
A FEW AREAS REMAIN IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 12Z...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AND ALLOWED ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL NOT SURE HOW DEEP WE
WILL BE ABLE TO MIX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAP HAS INCREASED
950MB-925MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA
(INDICATING 925MB WINDS 45-50 KNOTS). SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
WIND CHILLS STILL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY...BUT STILL ON TRACK FOR AN EXPIRATION OF 12Z.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL
PLACE THE REGION IN A WARMER AIRMASS TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE MINOR CONCERNS WITH WIND SPEED. FIRST...IN THE WARM
SECTOR...MODELS INDICATE THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 925MB WINDS WILL BE
40-50 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS (SUCH AS EAST OF THE VALLEY)
MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. WILL
MONITOR...BUT EVEN IF SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE
FORECAST...ADDITIONAL HAZARDS WOULD BE MINOR. SECOND...WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODELS INDICATE BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL...BUT 925MB WINDS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS. WITH EACH
SCENARIO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW (ALTHOUGH DRIFTING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE). REGION IS BACK IN A COLDER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...AND
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 29 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL AGAIN BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS THAT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ESCORT A SERIES
OF DRY FROPAS FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SHOTS OF CANADIAN AIRMASSES.
AS A RESULT A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
STORM TRACK AND ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD
BE DRY WITH NO RESTRICTION TO VSBY AND VFR CIGS. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT ANY RESTRICTION TO VSBY AS GUSTY S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT
SWITCH TO THE NW FROM W-E ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
256 PM PST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER AIR IS MOVING IN
ALOFT...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER. EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT PASS LEVEL WHERE RAIN WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL THIS
EVENING TO CHANGE TO SNOW. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...
THEN DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN DRY BUT
COOL WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER BLUSTERY MUCH OF THE DAY AS S-N PRESSURE
GRADIENTS INCREASE WITH THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING A RESURGENCE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS CLARK COUNTY
AND ANOTHER POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN CLACKAMAS AND MARION COUNTIES. NO
THUNDER YET...AND THUNDER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS CONVECTION
REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW WITH TOPS UP TO 12-15KFT...NOT HIGH OR COLD
ENOUGH FOR GOOD CHARGE SEPARATION. BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SQUALLS...BUT THERE JUST IS NOT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO FULLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DECENT LOW-MID
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE FOR THESE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
OTHER THAN THE LINES OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS...
EXPECT MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWERING IN THE
CASCADES...WHERE WESTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR MORE PERSISTENT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW IS
INCREASING ABOVE 4500-5500 FT ALREADY...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REACH
THE PASSES THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS
REACHING 2000-2500 FT BY THU MORNING. FOR NOW IT APPEARS 1-3 INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADE PASSES AND 4-8 INCHES UP ABOVE PASS
ELEVATIONS BEFORE PRECIP WINDS DOWN THU MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT APPEARS TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS A
COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES COME DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA IN BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER FOOTHILL
ELEVATIONS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY AS THE MAIN PACIFIC JET SHIFTS
TO OUR SOUTH. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE/SPLIT
FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BURGESS
&&
.AVIATION....BREEZY VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO 10-15 KT AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY
MVFR PREVAILING...BUT SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THURSDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THURSDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS 2500-3500
FT THROUGH 06Z THU. CIGS MAY DROP TO 1500 FT BY 10Z LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
04Z-06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 15 KT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. /27
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COASTAL JET HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35-38 KT TO THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL
STILL EXPECTING THE GUSTS TO STAY PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL. OVERALL WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...DROPPING BELOW 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS BY
06Z THU. GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
DUE TO THE VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS...SEVERAL 5 TO 9 FT SWELLS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK SO
EXPECT A RATHER CHAOTIC SEA DURING THIS TIME. THE END RESULT WILL
BE COMBINED SEAS HOVERING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT DURING
THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS. /NEUMAN/27
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
PST THURSDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1248 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY
ADJUSTED GRIDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS LOWERING TEMPS A FEW NOTCHES
WHILE ALSO RELAXING WINDS SLIGHTLY. NOT MUCH EFFECT ON WIND CHILL
INDEX SO ADVISORY STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION
AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
ELONGATED SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN AIR MASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE AIR
MASS AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO DRIES OUT. MAY TAKE A BIT LINGER TO ERODE
THE LOW CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW ON
THE GROUND WILL BE STAYING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
RADAR SHOWED SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
WAS NOT PICKING UP THE VERY SHALLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE HAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 11Z/6AM. HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS
MORNING FOR BOTH OF THESE TRENDS.
WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT 4AM SINCE SNOW HAS ENDED IN
ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
WILL START THURSDAY OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND...WHEN FACTORING IN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...BELIEVE
WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF. AS SUCH...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WARMER RIDGE TOPS EACH
NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN
COOLER.
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE 29/00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF...
CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A LATER ARRIVAL OF
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME...AND AM STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE
TIMING OF EVENTS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT NOW COVERAGE DOES
NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS IT DID IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT AND ONWARD...MODEL
GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY AS TO ANY BUCKLING THIS FRONT DOES NORTH AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS COMPLICATES THE SITUATION IN REGARDS TO WHEN OR IF
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE TYPE OF THE PRECIPITATION
THANKS WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DOES OR DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE
REGION.
OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF THAT BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT BUCKLES THE FRONT NORTH AGAIN OVER THE
REGION. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS A
RETURN OF THE WARM NOSE OVER COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY...THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION AND THE FRONT AGAIN BUCKLES
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUB 0C AIR AT 850 MB RETURNS TO THE AREA. WE
ARE BACK TO A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR EYES TURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP HERE AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AND THEN INTO OUR REGION BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY...ITS AFFECTS MAY
BE FELT AS FAR EAST AS OUR REGION THANKS TO ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH OUR BUCKLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUR FORECAST WILL
REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE WEST. INITIALLY WE WILL
HAVE A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PLACE
THAT WARM NOSE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN
FORECAST AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEING
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
TAFS ARE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY WEST WINDS WILL BE LESSENING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BUT REMAINING LIGHT AND NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE REGION EXPERIENCES SOME RELIEF. HERE ARE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 30TH...
TEMP YEAR
ROANOKE31966
LYNCHBURG41934
DANVILLE81966
BLACKSBURG-101966
BLUEFIELD-111966
LEWISBURG 7 2004
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/PC
CLIMATE...CF