Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/27/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
903 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT
WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE
/DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE
SO WITH A WARNING.
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES
UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY
HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A
RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO
SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE
CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA
ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED
THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH
THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN
THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY
BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER
GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND
THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG
CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30
TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING
AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING
AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY
MORNING.
MTF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE
FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER
SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER
PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET
LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT
SNOW FOR EVERYONE.
FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE
PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR
REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND
ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE
THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY.
WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND
MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF
TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTING UP TO 35 KT...ONLY VERY GRADUAL
DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY.
* SNOW ENDING LATE EVENING...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
AND CONTAMINATION OF PLOWED SURFACES.
* MVFR CIG AROUND 2000 FT EXPECTED TO BECOMING SCT-BKN BUT RATHER
THIN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST IL AT 23Z. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS THROUGH 00-02Z. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG COLD
FRONT...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD THERMAL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND
CIG CONDITIONS TO LIFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. AFTER SNOWFALL OF
PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH/END BY LATE EVENING THOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST (290-310 DEG) EARLY THIS EVENING WITH FROPA. VERY
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND RESULTING GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL ONLY COMPOUND BLOWING/DRIFTING AND
VISIBILITIES IN EVENING SNOW SHOWERS. PEAK WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z OR SO...WITH A VERY...VERY...GRADUAL DECREASE
THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD...THOUGH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER END GUST MAGNITUDE THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY DETAILS IN BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MID-RANGE MVFR OR HIGHER SCT-BKN DECK
MONDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
151 PM CST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...RELATIVELY LIGHTER SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...A QUICKLY APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY HAS SINCE CHANGED THESE CONDITIONS...AND
REPLACED THEM WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE.
20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...BUT WITH THIS QUICKLY
CHANGING AS SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH GALES QUICKLY
BEING OBSERVED OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE AND NEARSHORE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST GALES CAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LINGERING INTO THE
REST OF THE DAY MONDAY. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING GALES
COULD LINGER SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN THE CURRENT GALE WARNING THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WITH REGARDS TO THE
POSSIBILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINE END TIME
AND JUST MENTION GALE FORCE GUSTS. A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BUT ALSO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023...3 AM
MONDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM
MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...3 AM MONDAY
TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019...3 AM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
547 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT
WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE
/DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE
SO WITH A WARNING.
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES
UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY
HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A
RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO
SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE
CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA
ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED
THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH
THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN
THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY
BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER
GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND
THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG
CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30
TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING
AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING
AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY
MORNING.
MTF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE
FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER
SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER
PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET
LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT
SNOW FOR EVERYONE.
FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE
PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR
REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND
ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE
THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY.
WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND
MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF
TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEST WINDS SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AND GUSTING UP TO 35-40 KT...ONLY VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY.
* 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WITH
LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
DUE TO VERY STRONG WINDS.
* SNOW ENDS BY LATE EVENING...THOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE
AND CONTAMINATION OF PLOWED SURFACES.
* MVFR CIG AROUND 2000 FT EXPECTED TO BECOMING SCT-BKN BUT RATHER
THIN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST IL AT 23Z. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS THROUGH 00-02Z. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG COLD
FRONT...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD THERMAL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND
CIG CONDITIONS TO LIFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. AFTER SNOWFALL OF
PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH/END BY LATE EVENING THOUGH BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST (290-310 DEG) EARLY THIS EVENING WITH FROPA. VERY
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND RESULTING GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL ONLY COMPOUND BLOWING/DRIFTING AND
VISIBILITIES IN EVENING SNOW SHOWERS. PEAK WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z OR SO...WITH A VERY...VERY...GRADUAL DECREASE
THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD...THOUGH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER END GUST MAGNITUDE THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VIS/CIG DETAILS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLOWING SNOW.
* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY DETAILS IN BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MID-RANGE MVFR OR HIGHER SCT-BKN DECK
MONDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
151 PM CST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...RELATIVELY LIGHTER SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...A QUICKLY APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY HAS SINCE CHANGED THESE CONDITIONS...AND
REPLACED THEM WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE.
20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...BUT WITH THIS QUICKLY
CHANGING AS SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH GALES QUICKLY
BEING OBSERVED OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE AND NEARSHORE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST GALES CAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LINGERING INTO THE
REST OF THE DAY MONDAY. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING GALES
COULD LINGER SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN THE CURRENT GALE WARNING THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WITH REGARDS TO THE
POSSIBILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINE END TIME
AND JUST MENTION GALE FORCE GUSTS. A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BUT ALSO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-
ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ032 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023...3 AM
MONDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM
MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...3 AM MONDAY
TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019...3 AM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-
LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565 UNTIL 9
AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
901 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING WINDS...SNOW...AND DIVING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND CAUSE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY START TO WARM BACK UP. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH THE EXTREME COLD WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES FOR SNOW THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
MILD EVENING BY RECENT STANDARDS AS TEMPS REMAIN FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AT 01Z. DO NOT BE FOOLED AS THIS VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
THE CLUTCHES OF OLD MAN WINTER WILL END ABRUPTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
A NUMBER OF ISSUES TO DELVE INTO AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT
LOCATION AT 01Z IS FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN/
CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE REASONABLY
WELL TO THIS POINT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL USE IT
AS A GENERAL GUIDE FOR TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. TO THIS POINT...SNOW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE BEEN HEAVIEST OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND EASTERN IOWA. PRECIP HAS ACTUALLY STARTED AS LIGHT RAIN FOR A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD AT ONSET FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS BACK INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA. COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN HERE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF
INDY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WITHIN THE LOW
LEVELS INITIALLY. AS STATED IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT RAIN AT
ONSET...EXPECT IT TO BE VERY BRIEF AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES
SHOULD ENABLE LOW LEVEL SATURATION WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE
COLUMN RAPIDLY FALLS BELOW FREEZING.
CURRENT HRRR CONTINUES TO BRING SQUALLS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY AFTER 02Z...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST QUICKLY. THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHALLOW BUT STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 900MB AND A THIN LAYER OF INSTABILITY TO BOOT
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH
40-50KTS NOTED AT ABOUT 3KFT...THE PRESENCE OF AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...ANTICIPATE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER
WITH THE SQUALLS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALONE WILL ONLY BE AN INCH OR SO AT MOST...THE COMBINATION
OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL BRING A RENEWED PERIOD OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS THE SQUALLS PASS ALONG WITH DIFFICULT IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT THE MOST
INTENSE PART OF THE SQUALLS NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE-BLOOMINGTON-
COLUMBUS LINE...AND WILL LIKELY ADD A STRONGLY WORDED SPS THAT
FOCUSES STRICTLY ON THE IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW SQUALLS TO GO ALONG
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AT THIS
POINT AND WILL MAKE ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS.
RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE RULE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED
300-400 MILES BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE INTENSE COLD ADVECTION AND
EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ENABLE ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONE ADDITIONAL PROBLEM COURTESY OF OUR RAPID THAW
TODAY AND REFREEZE TONIGHT AS TEMPS TUMBLE...ICY SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO
FORM WHERE ROADS EXPERIENCED MELTING. ALL IN ALL...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND CREATE YET ANOTHER DIFFICULT
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR ZERO BY
DAYBREAK WITH WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -10F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
EXTREME COLD WILL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH THE MORNING TO COVER WIND CHILLS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ANY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DUE TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE BUT CLOUD COVER
CLEARING OUT. BY LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD START A BIG
DESCENT AND AFTER THE SUN SETS THEY WILL PLUMMET. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -26C HAVE CUT FROM EVEN COLDEST GUIDANCE
NUMBERS WITH THEIR CLIMO BIAS AND WENT NEAR THE RAW MODEL NUMBERS
FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS. THIS YIELDED LOW TEMPERATURES FROM -18 IN
THE NORTH TO -4 IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING FROM DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE 10-20 MPH AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS OF -30 TO -40 FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -25 IN THE SOUTH. THUS WILL GO WITH A WIND
CHILL WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
SOUTH. WILL START THESE PRODUCTS AT THE SAME TIME /17Z/ AS THE END
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...ALTHOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA UNTIL AROUND 0Z TUESDAY BUT WILL
SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY IN THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WHEN WIND CHILLS WILL
GET ABOVE CRITERIA /-15/ AND STAY THERE. IN THE NORTH THOUGH EXPECT
WIND CHILLS TO GET A LITTLE BETTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT...SO FOR NOW WILL RUN THE
WARNING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THIS COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY...BUT
TRYING TO KEEP HEADLINES AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE.
FOR TUESDAY KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST RATHER THAN
GOING WITH WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT SHOW
MUCH WARMING AND THINK CLIMO BIAS IS BUMPING NUMBERS UP TOO MUCH.
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN USED RAW MODEL NUMBERS KEEPING LOWS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH TO
20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. WARMING STARTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND CONSALL HANDLED THIS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
MODELS AGREE THAT LATE NEXT WEEK A SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ALLOWING A MORE WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY. ALSO...FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEEK AND THEN POSSIBLY LIFT BACK NORTH
WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE BY SATURDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING LEVEL WITH ALL THICKNESSES ALL BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES. SO...WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOVE 32 DEGREES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES INCREASE A BIT AGAIN FRIDAY
WITH THE SOUTH LOOKING MORE LIKE RAIN AND THE NORTH RAIN OR SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS NOT THAT GREAT THIS FAR OUT
WITH POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO BE A BIG KEY.
FOR NOW WILL JUST ACCEPT REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRENDS BUT NOT AS MUCH THE EXACT NUMBERS AS
MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH THE FINE DETAILS ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND THUS IMPULSES COMING AND GOING
QUICKLY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 901 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO LAF/IND OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITIES IN
SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND FREEZING FOG FOR THE WORST OF THE COMING
SNOW SQUALLS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
VFR TO START THE PERIOD...BUT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY...PERHAPS DOWN TO
IFR WITH SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT BLASTS THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH AND THE SQUALLS HAVE ENDED...MAY SEE A
RETURN TO VFR WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT SOME
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TRAPPED MOISTURE COULD CREATE MVFR
CEILINGS AGAIN TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID
30KT RANGE LIKELY WITH THE SQUALLS AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
SOME DECREASE IN GUSTS INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR INZ051>056.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-065.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-057.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
INZ051>053-060>064-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
825 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING WINDS...SNOW...AND DIVING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND CAUSE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY START TO WARM BACK UP. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH THE EXTREME COLD WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES FOR SNOW THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
MILD EVENING BY RECENT STANDARDS AS TEMPS REMAIN FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AT 01Z. DO NOT BE FOOLED AS THIS VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
THE CLUTCHES OF OLD MAN WINTER WILL END ABRUPTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
A NUMBER OF ISSUES TO DELVE INTO AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT
LOCATION AT 01Z IS FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN/
CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE REASONABLY
WELL TO THIS POINT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL USE IT
AS A GENERAL GUIDE FOR TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. TO THIS POINT...SNOW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE BEEN HEAVIEST OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND EASTERN IOWA. PRECIP HAS ACTUALLY STARTED AS LIGHT RAIN FOR A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD AT ONSET FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS BACK INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA. COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN HERE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF
INDY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WITHIN THE LOW
LEVELS INITIALLY. AS STATED IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT RAIN AT
ONSET...EXPECT IT TO BE VERY BRIEF AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES
SHOULD ENABLE LOW LEVEL SATURATION WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE
COLUMN RAPIDLY FALLS BELOW FREEZING.
CURRENT HRRR CONTINUES TO BRING SQUALLS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY AFTER 02Z...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST QUICKLY. THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHALLOW BUT STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 900MB AND A THIN LAYER OF INSTABILITY TO BOOT
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH
40-50KTS NOTED AT ABOUT 3KFT...THE PRESENCE OF AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...ANTICIPATE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER
WITH THE SQUALLS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALONE WILL ONLY BE AN INCH OR SO AT MOST...THE COMBINATION
OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL BRING A RENEWED PERIOD OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS THE SQUALLS PASS ALONG WITH DIFFICULT IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT THE MOST
INTENSE PART OF THE SQUALLS NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE-BLOOMINGTON-
COLUMBUS LINE...AND WILL LIKELY ADD A STRONGLY WORDED SPS THAT
FOCUSES STRICTLY ON THE IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW SQUALLS TO GO ALONG
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AT THIS
POINT AND WILL MAKE ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS.
RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE RULE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED
300-400 MILES BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE INTENSE COLD ADVECTION AND
EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ENABLE ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONE ADDITIONAL PROBLEM COURTESY OF OUR RAPID THAW
TODAY AND REFREEZE TONIGHT AS TEMPS TUMBLE...ICY SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO
FORM WHERE ROADS EXPERIENCED MELTING. ALL IN ALL...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND CREATE YET ANOTHER DIFFICULT
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR ZERO BY
DAYBREAK WITH WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -10F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
EXTREME COLD WILL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH THE MORNING TO COVER WIND CHILLS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ANY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DUE TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE BUT CLOUD COVER
CLEARING OUT. BY LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD START A BIG
DESCENT AND AFTER THE SUN SETS THEY WILL PLUMMET. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -26C HAVE CUT FROM EVEN COLDEST GUIDANCE
NUMBERS WITH THEIR CLIMO BIAS AND WENT NEAR THE RAW MODEL NUMBERS
FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS. THIS YIELDED LOW TEMPERATURES FROM -18 IN
THE NORTH TO -4 IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING FROM DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE 10-20 MPH AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS OF -30 TO -40 FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -25 IN THE SOUTH. THUS WILL GO WITH A WIND
CHILL WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
SOUTH. WILL START THESE PRODUCTS AT THE SAME TIME /17Z/ AS THE END
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...ALTHOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA UNTIL AROUND 0Z TUESDAY BUT WILL
SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY IN THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WHEN WIND CHILLS WILL
GET ABOVE CRITERIA /-15/ AND STAY THERE. IN THE NORTH THOUGH EXPECT
WIND CHILLS TO GET A LITTLE BETTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT...SO FOR NOW WILL RUN THE
WARNING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THIS COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY...BUT
TRYING TO KEEP HEADLINES AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE.
FOR TUESDAY KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST RATHER THAN
GOING WITH WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT SHOW
MUCH WARMING AND THINK CLIMO BIAS IS BUMPING NUMBERS UP TOO MUCH.
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN USED RAW MODEL NUMBERS KEEPING LOWS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH TO
20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. WARMING STARTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND CONSALL HANDLED THIS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
MODELS AGREE THAT LATE NEXT WEEK A SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ALLOWING A MORE WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY. ALSO...FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEEK AND THEN POSSIBLY LIFT BACK NORTH
WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE BY SATURDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING LEVEL WITH ALL THICKNESSES ALL BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES. SO...WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOVE 32 DEGREES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES INCREASE A BIT AGAIN FRIDAY
WITH THE SOUTH LOOKING MORE LIKE RAIN AND THE NORTH RAIN OR SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS NOT THAT GREAT THIS FAR OUT
WITH POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO BE A BIG KEY.
FOR NOW WILL JUST ACCEPT REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRENDS BUT NOT AS MUCH THE EXACT NUMBERS AS
MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH THE FINE DETAILS ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND THUS IMPULSES COMING AND GOING
QUICKLY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
VFR TO START THE PERIOD...BUT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY...PERHAPS DOWN TO
IFR WITH SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT BLASTS THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH AND THE SQUALLS HAVE ENDED...MAY SEE A
RETURN TO VFR WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT SOME
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TRAPPED MOISTURE COULD CREATE MVFR
CEILINGS AGAIN TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID
30KT RANGE LIKELY WITH THE SQUALLS AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
SOME DECREASE IN GUSTS INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR INZ051>056.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-065.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-057.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
INZ051>053-060>064-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
552 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
Current surface analysis at 20Z shows a prefrontal trough located
across southern NE, while the cold front was not far behind in
central NE. The pressure gradient behind the front is rather
impressive as well as a 20 degree drop in temperature. Given the
current southward speed of the front as well as agreement between
the latest RAP and HRRR it should enter the forecast area around
23Z. By 01Z the front should stretch along a line from Abilene to
Leavenworth, and finally exiting the forecast area around 03Z.
Directly behind this front will be a rapid increase in winds gusting
40 to 50 mph across the entire area. There is the possibility across
the eastern half of the forecast area that gusts reach 50 to 55 mph
directly behind the front. Latest forecast soundings are also
suggesting an isolated rain or snow shower along the front. The
light precip combined with the strong winds could cause brief
periods of low visibilities...no accumulation is expected. Winds
will gradually decrease through the overnight hours still
sustained around 15 to 20 mph at sunrise. Overnight lows reach the
single digits causing wind chills to drop to 15 below zero. Given
the latest forecast trends have will make no changes to the wind and
wind chill advisories. Tomorrow high pressure continues to build
into the region and highs only reach the mid to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
For much of Monday night into Tuesday morning, some of the coldest
air of the season will be holding strong over the area while surface
high pressure dominates the region...centered on the northeast
corner of Kansas. Expect mostly clear skies through the overnight
hours as well, which along with nearly calm winds indicates a very
cold night is in store. It is climatologically very difficult to
fall below zero without snow cover, but it certainly seems possible
on Tuesday morning, especially in northeast KS. Will then have the
base of an upper trough rotate through the area during the day on
Tuesday with some indication of enough moisture and ascent to
support light snow...mainly over central KS. Will have to see how it
plays out as it doesn`t look like much of a precip maker at this
point. Even without precip, could see cloud cover building in after
the very cold morning which may keep daytime temps lower despite
warm advection.
Beyond Tuesday, the upper level flow pattern attempts a gradual
change away from the sharp northerly flow currently in place. A
series of weak disturbances will move through the more zonal flow
pattern, but they are so weak, fast moving, and somewhat lacking of
deep moisture that any precip chances appear very small locally with
each disturbance passing. One such small chance appears to be
maximized on Friday, while another is in store for Sunday. The late
weekend/early next week storm system has better access to deep
moisture with southwesterly upper flow and some Gulf of Mexico
influence but the main question is if the storm track will come
overhead or hold south of the area. Temperatures through the long
term appear fairly stable, and near normal or a bit colder than
normal. Also of note, the short wave troughs in the long term do not
look nearly as windy as the clipper systems of the past two weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
Strong cold front/pressure gradient moving southward will reach
the KMHK around 00z/27 and into the KFOE/KTOP terminals between
00Z and 01Z/27. As it does...winds will dramatically increase from
the north/northwest with gusts at times over 40kts along with vfr
sprinkles/flurries until near 03z before wind speeds decrease
slightly. Otherwise...dry and vfr conditions through the remainder
of the fcst with gradually decreasing north winds/gusts.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ021>024-026-034>040-
054>056-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY until 2 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ008>012-020.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 4 AM to 11 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ010>012.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
943 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...WESTERLY GRADIENT HAS DIMINISHED ON SCHEDULE. WITH VERY
LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A QUICK DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THEY WILL THEN STEADY OFF WITH THE ADVANCE OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...AND FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP STILL WELL WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUMPING AGAINST SOME
VERY DRY AIR. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO BRING STEADY LIGHT
SNOW TO EASTERN NEW YORK...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT...INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AHEAD OF THIS MAIN BAND...HOWEVER THE PRECIP
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AS SUBLIMATION OCCURS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
PREV DISC...SFC RIDGE AXIS IS APPROACHING THE AREA QUICKLY FROM
THE W ATTM. WILL SEE GUSTY WLY WINDS DROP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS A RESULT. HIGH CLOUD SPILLING OVER THE UPR RIDGE AXIS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE CWFA BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z. IT
SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR
CIGS TO LOWER AND ANY PCPN TO BEGIN. BROAD WAA AHEAD OF GREAT
LAKES LOW PRES WILL SUPPORT SCT SHSN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES WHERE TOPOGRAPHY WILL ASSIST IN LIFT. IN
ADDITION...INITIALLY A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SHSN REACHING INTO PARTS OF THE MIDCOAST AS WINDS BECOME
MORE SWLY. COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUM IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FARTHER S.
LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY/S HIGHS.
AFTER AN INITIAL DROP NEAR SUNSET...WAA SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP
READINGS MOSTLY STEADY OR RAISE TEMPS THRU THE NIGHT TO WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF CURRENT READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHSN LINGER IN WAA MON MORNING...WHILE COLD FNT APPROACHES
FROM THE W. FNT SHOULD ENTER WRN CWFA NEAR NOON ACROSS WRN
ZONES...AND EXIT THE ERN ZONES BY 00Z. ALONG FNT GUIDANCE
INDICATES ENOUGH FORCING FOR A CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHSN. SFC WAA
AHEAD OF FROPA WILL BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
COAST...WHERE SHSN MAY MIX WITH RA AT TIMES. LLVL RH PROFILES AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF MORE INTENSE
SQUALLS WITHIN THE LINE OF SHSN. QUICKLY FALLING TEMPS AFTER THE
FROPA WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME ICY SPOTS WHERE SNFL HAS MELTED.
LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN COULD TACK ON ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES IN
THE MTNS...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PAIR OF SURFACE CYCLONES REMAIN STUCK IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO
OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD AS RIDGING
BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME
LESS AMPLIFIED FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SE STATES. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIME FRAME.
IN THE INTERIM THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER FOR
NEW ENGLAND AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVELY
COLD AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES
TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE AS THE WEEK GOES ON. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOK ESPECIALLY COLD WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW CLEARING
CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A VERY DRY AIRMASS AS WELL WITH ANY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED. MAY NEED WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT WASHINGTON TO LAKE MOXIE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS AS A FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. MODELS SEEM TO
BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY WASHING THIS OUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND PARENT SURFACE LOW FILL. QPF/SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE
AIRMASS REMAINING ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. OTHER
DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW ALOFT MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE NOT BEING
RESOLVED WELL BY THE LONG TERM MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. BROAD WAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHSN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNFL.
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ON MON...UNTIL COLD
FNT SWEEPS THRU WITH A BAND OF SHSN ALONG IT. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NH AND WRN ME.
WLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND COLD FNT YET AGAIN LATE MON
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR WITH WSW WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. POSSIBLE
LINGERING MVFR IN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS SFC RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WINDS WILL
RELAX FOR A TIME. GALES ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA
CONDITIONS BEFORE 00Z...BUT SCA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. SCA IN THE BAYS WILL BE ABLE TO COME DOWN BY 00Z AS
WELL. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WAA
EASES THE THREAT. BEHIND COLD FNT LATE MON NIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE.
LONG TERM...SOMEWHAT GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
921 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND...AND WE EXTENDED THE MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. THE GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND OF SNOW WAS STARTING TO
DIMINISH...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE RAP13 SUGGESTED WOULD HAPPEN ABOUT
THIS TIME.
WINDS WERE STARTING TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35
MPH. WE WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GO UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...AND ARE LEANING TOWARD EXTENDING IT FOR BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON
COUNTIES. THOSE AREAS WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGHER ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WE`LL MONITOR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE MAKING OUR DECISION.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST AND WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THEM TONIGHT. VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH THE LOWEST READING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUED OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A GRAVITY WAVE IN THE KDLH RADAR
IMAGES. THE RAP SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z...SO WE
WILL INCREASE POPS/SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS/BAYFIELD
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. WE ALSO
INCREASED POPS ELSEWHERE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AT LEAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THE ONSET OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EWD THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
TAPER OFF OVER NE MN AND MUCH OF NW WI THIS EVENING. A STRONG
INFLUX OF COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH NRN BAYFIELD...AND
ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES INTO NRN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. THE STRONG
NW WINDS...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER PRETTY MUCH
THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND. THE LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR WHERE HIGHER
SNOW AMTS FELL LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
COINCIDE. THIS WILL BE APPROXIMATELY FROM THE LEECH LAKE/BRAINERD
LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS/I-35 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE NORTH
AND SOUTH SHORES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...A STRONG PUSH OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE N/NW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AND PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES -35 TO -45. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BACK DOWN LATE
MONDAY. A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH MODERATION EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WE
SHOULD SEE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 35 BELOW IN THE
NORTH TO 25 TO 30 BELOW IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA. WE EVEN
WENT WITH SOME 30 BELOW READINGS IN PORTIONS OF NW WI. WIND CHILL
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 BELOW RANGE IN THE
NORTH...AND 40 TO 50 BELOW RANGE IN THE SOUTH. THIS COULD EASILY BE
ONE OF OUR COLDER NIGHTS OF THE WINTER. H85 TEMPS ALREADY START TO
MODERATE ON TUESDAY...CLIMBING TO -16 TO -19C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WAA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NW
TO SE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
VALUES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ON
TUESDAY...THEY SHOULD REACH INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT LITTLE TO NO
SNOWFALL DURING THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY VERY MINOR
SYSTEMS. THE SIX TO TEN AND EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY FORECASTS CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH SOUNDS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
CEILINGS VARIED FROM LOW END VFR TO MVFR WITH A WIDE RANGE OF VSBYS
FROM 0.75 MILES TO 6+ MILES AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING
SNOW HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE THE LOWEST VSBYS. THE SNOW SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BUT NOT END UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THE LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED PLENTY OF CU/STRATOCU UPSTREAM...SO
WE EXPECT VARIABLE CEILINGS AT TIMES FROM 1500-4500 FEET INTO AT
LEAST EARLY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER VSBYS/CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST LONGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE DUE TO VERY COLD NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -23 -13 -29 -6 / 60 0 0 0
INL -27 -17 -33 -5 / 40 0 0 0
BRD -24 -13 -31 -3 / 30 0 0 0
HYR -21 -12 -32 -4 / 60 0 0 0
ASX -17 -11 -26 -2 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
025-026-033>038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
WIZ001>004-006>009.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
548 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUED OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A GRAVITY WAVE IN THE KDLH RADAR
IMAGES. THE RAP SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z...SO WE
WILL INCREASE POPS/SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS/BAYFIELD
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. WE ALSO
INCREASED POPS ELSEWHERE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AT LEAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THE ONSET OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EWD THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
TAPER OFF OVER NE MN AND MUCH OF NW WI THIS EVENING. A STRONG
INFLUX OF COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH NRN BAYFIELD...AND
ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES INTO NRN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. THE STRONG
NW WINDS...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER PRETTY MUCH
THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND. THE LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR WHERE HIGHER
SNOW AMTS FELL LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
COINCIDE. THIS WILL BE APPROXIMATELY FROM THE LEECH LAKE/BRAINERD
LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS/I-35 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE NORTH
AND SOUTH SHORES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...A STRONG PUSH OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE N/NW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AND PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES -35 TO -45. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BACK DOWN LATE
MONDAY. A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH MODERATION EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WE
SHOULD SEE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 35 BELOW IN THE
NORTH TO 25 TO 30 BELOW IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA. WE EVEN
WENT WITH SOME 30 BELOW READINGS IN PORTIONS OF NW WI. WIND CHILL
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 BELOW RANGE IN THE
NORTH...AND 40 TO 50 BELOW RANGE IN THE SOUTH. THIS COULD EASILY BE
ONE OF OUR COLDER NIGHTS OF THE WINTER. H85 TEMPS ALREADY START TO
MODERATE ON TUESDAY...CLIMBING TO -16 TO -19C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WAA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NW
TO SE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
VALUES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ON
TUESDAY...THEY SHOULD REACH INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT LITTLE TO NO
SNOWFALL DURING THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY VERY MINOR
SYSTEMS. THE SIX TO TEN AND EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY FORECASTS CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH SOUNDS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
CEILINGS VARIED FROM LOW END VFR TO MVFR WITH A WIDE RANGE OF VSBYS
FROM 0.75 MILES TO 6+ MILES AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING
SNOW HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE THE LOWEST VSBYS. THE SNOW SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BUT NOT END UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THE LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED PLENTY OF CU/STRATOCU UPSTREAM...SO
WE EXPECT VARIABLE CEILINGS AT TIMES FROM 1500-4500 FEET INTO AT
LEAST EARLY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER VSBYS/CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST LONGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE DUE TO VERY COLD NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -23 -13 -29 -6 / 40 0 0 0
INL -27 -17 -33 -5 / 10 0 0 0
BRD -24 -13 -31 -3 / 10 0 0 0
HYR -21 -12 -32 -4 / 50 0 0 0
ASX -17 -11 -26 -2 / 70 30 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
WIZ001>004-006>009.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ001>004-006>009.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
654 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...USHERING IN YET ANOTHER BLAST OF DANGEROUSLY
COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO
SUPERBOWL WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT AND ASSOC BAND OF LGT OVERRUNNING SNOW IS RAPIDLY
LIFTING THRU NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
AND RAP GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY LGT SNOW
WILL CLEAR THE N TIER COUNTIES BY ARND 00Z. ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR
LESS HAVE BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND
CENTRAL MTNS.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DRY WX FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ONLY FORCING SOUTH
OF WARM FRONT WILL BE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE N MTNS...BUT
MOISTURE SHOULD BE TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW FLURRIES. HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND
THE CENTRAL MTNS BY ARND 12Z. BLEND OF MDL QPF IMPLIES A FRESH
INCH OR SO IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW MTNS TOWARDS DAWN.
TEMPS ARE RISING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNDER CLOUD COVER AND WARM
ADVECTION. BY 12Z TEMPS SHOULD HAVE FALLEN BACK TO THE UTEENS
ACROSS THE NW MTNS BEHIND THE CDFRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...SREF
AND GEFS OUTPUT SUGGEST SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN PA MAY CREEP ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE LATEST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A MONTH OF STRONG ARCTIC FRONTS WILL
BE RACING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH THE TEMP STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON A GUSTY WNW WIND. BY EVENING...TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NW TO NEAR 20 IN
HARRISBURG. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RUNNING ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE
LAURELS AND NRN MOUNTAINS...AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 ABOVE ZERO
ELSEWHERE.
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE QPF...USING A BLEND OF
SREF/ECMWF/GFS AND HPC NUMBERS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE INCREDIBLY DRY
AND GETTING LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GR LAKES.
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AROUND 1 INCH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY THE
LAURELS UP THROUGH THE NW MOUNTAINS. CONCERN IS THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SQUALLS AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z
WRF. FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT
ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING HOWEVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR AND FLOW AROUND THE CIRCUMPOLAR VORTEX...EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IS FORECAST TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK. AIRFLOW OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN MAY ONCE AGAIN MAKE INROADS OUR WAY LATER IN THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER ALASKA IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION...AS WELL AS A
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR STORMINESS BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT LEADING THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL AFFECT PA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK HAVING MOVED THROUGH RIGHT
BEFORE THE START OF THE PERIOD. THUS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND DRY. COLD FROPA NEXT FRIDAY MAY STALL TO
THE SOUTH OF PA AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS SRN
STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PUSH EAST. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE RETURN
OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY BE INTERESTING
IN TERMS OF PCPN AS WE HEAD TOWARD GROUNDHOGS DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY LIGHT SNOW CAME IN REAL FAST THIS AFT...FASTER THAN
WHAT I WOULD EXPECTED. ANYWAY...THE SNOW HAS ALREADY MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA.
NOT SEEING MUCH OVERNIGHT.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...BUT
NOTHING AS INTENSE AS THE SQUALLS LAST NIGHT.
A LOT OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKES.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT JST AND BFD DUE TO UPSLOPE.
WINDS STAY TOO WESTERLY ON TUE FOR SEEING SNOW SHOWERS
IN UNV AND AOO.
AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW ON WED INTO THU...ALL SITES SHOULD
BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. MVFR WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT JST AND BFD.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>026-033>035-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
328 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WIND PROFILER SHOWS DEEPENING S/SW FLOW OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS WHICH HAS ASSISTED IN INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES
AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
MOSTLY NORTH OF MELBOURNE. DON`T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY LOW
VISIBILITIES SO THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY EVEN ALTHOUGH IT BEGINS TO
SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL KEEP LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDINESS IN
THE FORECAST PARTICULARLY FROM ABOUT OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES
NORTHWARD. RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT RECORD HIGHS AREN`T
EXPECTED.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO FLORIDA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY BUT CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE
LEFT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. NEITHER WIDESPREAD NOR SIGNIFICANT
FOG IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
TUESDAY...ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE SE ALTC COAST WITH A TRAILING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS WITH SOME FILTERED SUN ACROSS
SRN SECTIONS. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLGT CHC CENTRAL ZONES AND DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LWR-MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S/LWR
80S ACROSS SRN SECTIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND
PULL THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. PREVALENT
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE TWD NRN SECTIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM KISSIMMEE TO CAPE CANAVERAL.
WILL AGAIN KEEP A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
AND DRY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. LOWS MID 50S FAR NORTH AND LWR-MID 60S
FOR THE TREASURE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTENSIVE POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL. EXPECT LIKELY
SHOWERS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S FROM LEESBURG TO DAYTONA
BEACH...AROUND 70 IN MELBOURNE AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MARTIN
COUNTY.
WED NIGHT...GFS HINTS AT LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT WITH N-NE LOW LVL FLOW FROM THE SFC-H9...LOW LVL WAA AT H8 AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING H2 THROUGH AND
FAVORABLE RR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF RAIN SOME POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
FOR A TIME. SOME COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO NRN LAKE/INLAND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES WITH LOWS AROUND 40 DEGS. FOR RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE A COLD
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY
PRECIP IF GFS/NAM TEMP PROFILES VERIFY.
THU...00Z GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THU
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY LEANING TWD THE GFS AT THIS POINT. IF
GFS SLOW DOWN CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION MAY HAVE TO RAISE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE PRECIP PULLS OFFSHORE. HIGHS IN THE
60S NORTH TO LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.
FRI-SUN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GA TO START THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC WITH VEERING LOW LVL FLOW AND RISING MID LVL
HEIGHTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE CLIMO FOR
HIGHS BY SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80/LWR 80S SRN
SECTIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH NEAR SHORE OCEAN
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S. ENOUGH LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED BY SAT AFTN AND SUNDAY TO INSERT SOME SLGT SHOWER CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTH OF MLB VISYBS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH SOME TEMPO IFR. OCCASIONAL -RA POSSIBLE FROM ISM/MLB NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL CAUSE BRIEF LOWER VISBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TODAY
TO 10-15 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS
INCREASE A BIT TO 1-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE BUT WITH
PERIODS 9-10 SECONDS ONLY CHOP WILL BE FROM WINDS.
TUE-FRI...VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME S-SW
TUE NIGHT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND A FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY REQUIRED FOR MID WEEK. WINDS WILL
VEER AND LIGHTEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOW FOR MUCH
BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 56 73 55 / 30 10 30 40
MCO 76 57 78 59 / 20 10 20 30
MLB 79 59 77 63 / 20 10 10 20
VRB 79 57 79 62 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 74 56 75 53 / 30 10 20 40
SFB 76 57 76 57 / 30 10 20 30
ORL 75 58 77 58 / 30 10 20 30
FPR 79 56 79 63 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BOWEN
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
311 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT
WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE
/DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE
SO WITH A WARNING.
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES
UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY
HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A
RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO
SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE
CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA
ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED
THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH
THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN
THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY
BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER
GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND
THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG
CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30
TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING
AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING
AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY
MORNING.
MTF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE
FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER
SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER
PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET
LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT
SNOW FOR EVERYONE.
FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE
PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR
REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND
ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE
THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY.
WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND
MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF
TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRIFTING...BUT IMPACTS TO VSBY
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25KT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
LEADING TO VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW
30 KT RANGE...AND WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BLOWING SNOW IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE WAVES OF
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NIGHT LEADING TO VSBY
BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING AS
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
VERTICAL VISIBILITIES RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CIGS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO VSBY DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SPEED/TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CST
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WHILE STILL SEEING REPORTS OF GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
GALES BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT WILL THEN REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE
25-30KT RANGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH 30 KT WINDS...A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION
MIDWEEK MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING AT LEAST
A BRIEF LULL IN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL
NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
245 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT
WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE
/DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE
SO WITH A WARNING.
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES
UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY
HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A
RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO
SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE
CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA
ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED
THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH
THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN
THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY
BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER
GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND
THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG
CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30
TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING
AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING
AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY
MORNING.
MTF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE
FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER
SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER
PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET
LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT
SNOW FOR EVERYONE.
FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE
PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR
REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND
ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE
THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY.
WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND
MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF
TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VSBY AT TIMES.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EASING THIS EVENING.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
LEADING TO VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW
30 KT RANGE...AND WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BLOWING SNOW IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE WAVES OF
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NIGHT LEADING TO VSBY
BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING AS
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
VERTICAL VISIBILITIES RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CIGS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING VSBY CHANGES OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VARIABLE VSBY IN WAVES OF BLOWING SNOW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SPEED/TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CST
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WHILE STILL SEEING REPORTS OF GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
GALES BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT WILL THEN REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE
25-30KT RANGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH 30 KT WINDS...A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION
MIDWEEK MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING AT LEAST
A BRIEF LULL IN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL
NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1147 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT
WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE
/DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE
SO WITH A WARNING.
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES
UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY
HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A
RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO
SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE
CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA
ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED
THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH
THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN
THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY
BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER
GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND
THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG
CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30
TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING
AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING
AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY
MORNING.
MTF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE
FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER
SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER
PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET
LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT
SNOW FOR EVERYONE.
FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE
PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR
REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND
ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE
THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY.
WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND
MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF
TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VSBY AT TIMES.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EASING THIS EVENING.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
LEADING TO VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW
30 KT RANGE...AND WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BLOWING SNOW IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE WAVES OF
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NIGHT LEADING TO VSBY
BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING AS
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
VERTICAL VISIBILITIES RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CIGS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING VSBY CHANGES OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VARIABLE VSBY IN WAVES OF BLOWING SNOW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SPEED/TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
151 PM CST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...RELATIVELY LIGHTER SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...A QUICKLY APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY HAS SINCE CHANGED THESE CONDITIONS...AND
REPLACED THEM WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE.
20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...BUT WITH THIS QUICKLY
CHANGING AS SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH GALES QUICKLY
BEING OBSERVED OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE AND NEARSHORE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST GALES CAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LINGERING INTO THE
REST OF THE DAY MONDAY. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING GALES
COULD LINGER SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN THE CURRENT GALE WARNING THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WITH REGARDS TO THE
POSSIBILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINE END TIME
AND JUST MENTION GALE FORCE GUSTS. A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BUT ALSO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023...3 AM
MONDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM
MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...3 AM MONDAY
TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019...3 AM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1152 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING WINDS...SNOW...AND DIVING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND CAUSE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY START TO WARM BACK UP. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH THE EXTREME COLD WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES FOR SNOW THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
MILD EVENING BY RECENT STANDARDS AS TEMPS REMAIN FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AT 01Z. DO NOT BE FOOLED AS THIS VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
THE CLUTCHES OF OLD MAN WINTER WILL END ABRUPTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
A NUMBER OF ISSUES TO DELVE INTO AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT
LOCATION AT 01Z IS FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN/
CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE REASONABLY
WELL TO THIS POINT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL USE IT
AS A GENERAL GUIDE FOR TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. TO THIS POINT...SNOW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE BEEN HEAVIEST OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND EASTERN IOWA. PRECIP HAS ACTUALLY STARTED AS LIGHT RAIN FOR A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD AT ONSET FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS BACK INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA. COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN HERE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF
INDY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WITHIN THE LOW
LEVELS INITIALLY. AS STATED IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT RAIN AT
ONSET...EXPECT IT TO BE VERY BRIEF AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES
SHOULD ENABLE LOW LEVEL SATURATION WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE
COLUMN RAPIDLY FALLS BELOW FREEZING.
CURRENT HRRR CONTINUES TO BRING SQUALLS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY AFTER 02Z...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST QUICKLY. THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHALLOW BUT STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 900MB AND A THIN LAYER OF INSTABILITY TO BOOT
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH
40-50KTS NOTED AT ABOUT 3KFT...THE PRESENCE OF AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...ANTICIPATE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER
WITH THE SQUALLS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALONE WILL ONLY BE AN INCH OR SO AT MOST...THE COMBINATION
OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL BRING A RENEWED PERIOD OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS THE SQUALLS PASS ALONG WITH DIFFICULT IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT THE MOST
INTENSE PART OF THE SQUALLS NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE-BLOOMINGTON-
COLUMBUS LINE...AND WILL LIKELY ADD A STRONGLY WORDED SPS THAT
FOCUSES STRICTLY ON THE IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW SQUALLS TO GO ALONG
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AT THIS
POINT AND WILL MAKE ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS.
RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE RULE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED
300-400 MILES BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE INTENSE COLD ADVECTION AND
EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ENABLE ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONE ADDITIONAL PROBLEM COURTESY OF OUR RAPID THAW
TODAY AND REFREEZE TONIGHT AS TEMPS TUMBLE...ICY SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO
FORM WHERE ROADS EXPERIENCED MELTING. ALL IN ALL...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND CREATE YET ANOTHER DIFFICULT
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR ZERO BY
DAYBREAK WITH WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -10F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
EXTREME COLD WILL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH THE MORNING TO COVER WIND CHILLS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ANY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DUE TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE BUT CLOUD COVER
CLEARING OUT. BY LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD START A BIG
DESCENT AND AFTER THE SUN SETS THEY WILL PLUMMET. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -26C HAVE CUT FROM EVEN COLDEST GUIDANCE
NUMBERS WITH THEIR CLIMO BIAS AND WENT NEAR THE RAW MODEL NUMBERS
FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS. THIS YIELDED LOW TEMPERATURES FROM -18 IN
THE NORTH TO -4 IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING FROM DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE 10-20 MPH AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS OF -30 TO -40 FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -25 IN THE SOUTH. THUS WILL GO WITH A WIND
CHILL WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
SOUTH. WILL START THESE PRODUCTS AT THE SAME TIME /17Z/ AS THE END
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...ALTHOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA UNTIL AROUND 0Z TUESDAY BUT WILL
SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY IN THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WHEN WIND CHILLS WILL
GET ABOVE CRITERIA /-15/ AND STAY THERE. IN THE NORTH THOUGH EXPECT
WIND CHILLS TO GET A LITTLE BETTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT...SO FOR NOW WILL RUN THE
WARNING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THIS COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY...BUT
TRYING TO KEEP HEADLINES AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE.
FOR TUESDAY KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST RATHER THAN
GOING WITH WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT SHOW
MUCH WARMING AND THINK CLIMO BIAS IS BUMPING NUMBERS UP TOO MUCH.
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN USED RAW MODEL NUMBERS KEEPING LOWS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH TO
20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. WARMING STARTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND CONSALL HANDLED THIS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
MODELS AGREE THAT LATE NEXT WEEK A SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ALLOWING A MORE WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY. ALSO...FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEEK AND THEN POSSIBLY LIFT BACK NORTH
WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE BY SATURDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING LEVEL WITH ALL THICKNESSES ALL BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES. SO...WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOVE 32 DEGREES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES INCREASE A BIT AGAIN FRIDAY
WITH THE SOUTH LOOKING MORE LIKE RAIN AND THE NORTH RAIN OR SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS NOT THAT GREAT THIS FAR OUT
WITH POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO BE A BIG KEY.
FOR NOW WILL JUST ACCEPT REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRENDS BUT NOT AS MUCH THE EXACT NUMBERS AS
MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH THE FINE DETAILS ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND THUS IMPULSES COMING AND GOING
QUICKLY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
WINDS ARE A MAJOR IMPACT TO OPERATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTS
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD MAY REMAIN ABOVE 40KT
AT TIMES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT IS THROUGH ALL SITES...OR SHOULD BE AT ISSUANCE TIME...AND
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED OF 25+KT WITH GUSTS OF 40+KT
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT...AND GUSTS TOMORROW MAY ONLY BE TO NEAR 25-30KT.
MAY SEE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS BUT TOO TRANSIENT TO
BOTHER WITH INCLUSION.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE COLD ADVECTION TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW HAVE BACKED OFF TO
SCT025 WITH A BKN040 DECK. SREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AND GUSTS WILL END IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-065.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
INZ051>053-060>064-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1124 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
Will be updating the forecast to clear out some of the northern
counties from the wind advisory. All but a hand full of
observations mainly across east central KS have seen winds
gradually diminish. With both the RAP and NAM progging the pressure
gradient to weaken as the night progresses, the wind speeds should
continue a gradual weakening trend overnight and should remain
below advisory criteria.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
Current surface analysis at 20Z shows a prefrontal trough located
across southern NE, while the cold front was not far behind in
central NE. The pressure gradient behind the front is rather
impressive as well as a 20 degree drop in temperature. Given the
current southward speed of the front as well as agreement between
the latest RAP and HRRR it should enter the forecast area around
23Z. By 01Z the front should stretch along a line from Abilene to
Leavenworth, and finally exiting the forecast area around 03Z.
Directly behind this front will be a rapid increase in winds gusting
40 to 50 mph across the entire area. There is the possibility across
the eastern half of the forecast area that gusts reach 50 to 55 mph
directly behind the front. Latest forecast soundings are also
suggesting an isolated rain or snow shower along the front. The
light precip combined with the strong winds could cause brief
periods of low visibilities...no accumulation is expected. Winds
will gradually decrease through the overnight hours still
sustained around 15 to 20 mph at sunrise. Overnight lows reach the
single digits causing wind chills to drop to 15 below zero. Given
the latest forecast trends have will make no changes to the wind and
wind chill advisories. Tomorrow high pressure continues to build
into the region and highs only reach the mid to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
For much of Monday night into Tuesday morning, some of the coldest
air of the season will be holding strong over the area while surface
high pressure dominates the region...centered on the northeast
corner of Kansas. Expect mostly clear skies through the overnight
hours as well, which along with nearly calm winds indicates a very
cold night is in store. It is climatologically very difficult to
fall below zero without snow cover, but it certainly seems possible
on Tuesday morning, especially in northeast KS. Will then have the
base of an upper trough rotate through the area during the day on
Tuesday with some indication of enough moisture and ascent to
support light snow...mainly over central KS. Will have to see how it
plays out as it doesn`t look like much of a precip maker at this
point. Even without precip, could see cloud cover building in after
the very cold morning which may keep daytime temps lower despite
warm advection.
Beyond Tuesday, the upper level flow pattern attempts a gradual
change away from the sharp northerly flow currently in place. A
series of weak disturbances will move through the more zonal flow
pattern, but they are so weak, fast moving, and somewhat lacking of
deep moisture that any precip chances appear very small locally with
each disturbance passing. One such small chance appears to be
maximized on Friday, while another is in store for Sunday. The late
weekend/early next week storm system has better access to deep
moisture with southwesterly upper flow and some Gulf of Mexico
influence but the main question is if the storm track will come
overhead or hold south of the area. Temperatures through the long
term appear fairly stable, and near normal or a bit colder than
normal. Also of note, the short wave troughs in the long term do not
look nearly as windy as the clipper systems of the past two weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
VFR conditions should persist through the day Monday as a dry
arctic airmass builds into the area.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ034-035-037-040-
054>056-058-059.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 4 AM to 11 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ010>012.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
359 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
No changes to headlines are planned with this forecast.
The Arctic cold front has cleared the entire area. A brief period
of gusts 40 to 50 mph developed right behind the front, but winds
have dropped off quite a bit in most locations. The LAMP guidance
is generating near advisory level winds through 12Z over southeast
Missouri generally in a zone from Cape Girardeau to New Madrid,
so will plan on leaving the Wind Advisory alone. The 12Z
expiration should workout well.
The RUC has been doing well with temperature trends behind the
front, so have followed it fairly closely through the day today.
It is never a comfortable feeling when the current temperatures
are considerably higher than the forecast high temperatures, but
that is rightfully the case this morning. Should see temperatures
bottom out around 15Z when they will range from 8 or 9 along I-64,
to 19 or 20 near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. A slight
moderating trend is expected through mid-afternoon, but a band of
fairly solid mid-level clouds will hamper it, especially in the
south. May see more recovery in the north than in the south.
Wind chills will also bottom out around 15Z, but current forecast
wind chills are only expected to range from -6 to -10 in the
Advisory area. Will let the wind chill advisory continue with
slightly higher than preferred wind chills. There is enough
uncertainty in the wind and temperature forecasts to allow a
little buffer in case conditions are worse than currently
forecast. Regardless, wind chills in the north through the
afternoon are not likely to reach above zero, and only single
digits above zero are expected in the south.
For lows tonight, the latest guidance is warmer (relative term)
than the previous forecast. I tried to blend the two, which
results in sub-zero temperatures only along and north of I-64. The
00Z NAM and GFS each show a swath of mid-clouds coming back north
across the southern half of the area overnight, which should help
hold up temperatures there, especially over southeast Missouri.
Some portions of southeast Missouri may not drop into the single
digits.
Wind chills will continue to be below zero through the night in
the north and eventually will get there through the entire area.
Some portions of the I-64 corridor may touch -10 again, but winds
are expected to drop off considerably in that region, so it may
just be cold with actual temperatures dropping to near zero. Will
let the day shift take a look at things before deciding whether
another advisory is warranted for tonight and early Tuesday. Will
issue another SPS to address the extent of the cold conditions
today through Wednesday morning.
Should see good coverage of mid-cloud as the primary large-scale
trough moves through the region Tuesday. With the main low-level
cold pool overhead during the day temperatures will only warm
into the teens. For Tuesday night, the GFS is the slowest to
develop a pressure gradient over the region, and really keeps
winds light or calm through the night. The NAM and ECMWF are more
aggressive with the return of southerly winds across the area
overnight. Decided to lean toward the GFS, and took lows down to
or a bit below MAV numbers. With sub-zero dewpoints across the
area and highs only in the teens, it may not be that far-fetched
for some at least isolated areas to drop close to zero overnight.
The low-level cold pool pushes east of the area Wednesday, and
decent southwest low-level flow develops. This will allow
temperatures to warm up into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with
portions of southeast Missouri maybe actually reaching the
freezing mark.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
By the start of the extended forecast period, the ECMWF/GFS ensemble
means appear to be in reasonable agreement in solutions showing the
wrn U.S. mid/upper trof finally breaking down and eventually being
replaced by a longwave trof. This will put the PAH forecast area
into swrly flow aloft. The smaller scale details are more uncertain,
though at least the 00z GFS/ECMWF operational runs agree fairly well.
Highs are expected to get above freezing through the period.
Early Fri, it appears the PAH forecast area will be in the warm
sector of an approaching sfc low pressure system. "Warm" is
relative, though, as temps and the vertical profile still appear to
be cold enough for snow, and perhaps sleet during the day Fri near
the AR/TN borders. Fri night, a sfc trof of low pressure should
cross our region somewhere in the vicinity, depending on model
solution. Low level warm air advection should keep pcpn liquid for
most of the region, except perhaps the I-64 corridor where
snow/sleet is more probable. An attendant cold front is forecast to
move through the PAH forecast area sometime early Sat, and pcpn may
be snow in the nrn third of the region, transitioning to rain
further south. The latest GFS/ECMWF runs show dry high pressure in
place by Sat night, but the initialization blend still contained
chance PoPs all the way through Sun. This was left in the forecast
at this time because of recent instability in the models. If pcpn
does occur, it may be a wintry mix for roughly the nrn half of the
our region Sat night and Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
By the effective time of the 06z Monday TAF issuance, all of the
TAF locations will see the strong northwest winds in excess of 30
knots sustained and around 45 knot gusts. There will be a short
period behind the front where post frontal ceilings will fall into
the 2-2.5kft AGL range before lifting back to VFR category ceilings.
Transitioned remainder of forecast to reflect gradual decrease in
wind speeds.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
080>087.
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR KYZ001>022.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KYZ014-018-
019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
404 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TODAY AND DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC
WILL BRING A CLIPPER TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATE A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL FEATURE
OVERRUNNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AS A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER WITH A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 80 KT WINDS NEAR H850 BY
MIDDAY. THIS LLJ WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM SUBZERO READINGS IN
THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET.
IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER OF MAINE. UPSLOPE FACTORS
WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW IN ZONE 10 AND GREENVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MONTICELLO
AND MARS HILL. AM FAVORING THE REGIONAL GEMS AND NAM...AS WELL AS
THE HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEV ELOPEMENT IN NE MAINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDING STRETCHING FROM NE AROOSTOOK
TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE
ENTRANCE AREA OF A 170 KT UPPER JET WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW RATES MAY REACH OVER AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BANDING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE EVENT ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT OF ALL
THIS IS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1 THROUGH 6 AND ZONE 10 INTO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN NE AROOSTOOK.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE 31 IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND ZONE 11 IN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR INCLUSION TO THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 2 APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS BANGOR...THE OVERRUNNING SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD EQUATE
TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON THEIR
WAY TO THE UPPER 30S
A NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE
NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOW SINGLE DIGITS
BY DAYBREAK DOWN EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE END OF JANUARY. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN TUE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR WED EVENING...BUT
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE
THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION THU MORNING AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE MERCURY
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU PM. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
IS SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S NORTH AND M/U 20S DOWNEAST.
THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS A WEAK WAVE THAT
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE CANADIAN AND
LATEST 00Z/27TH ECMWF HAVE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN ONLY HAS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FROM ITS
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR THIS MORNING...LIFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL WITH VIS
IN SNOW DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 50KT AT FL020...BECOMING
SW LATER IN THE DAY. VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT
POSSIBLY FVE DUE TO MVFR CIGS.
SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRI. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY LATE WED IN ISO
-SHSN AND AGAIN FRI AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISO TO
SCT -SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SEAS
REACHING AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN SCA
THIS EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE IN WEST FLOW THAT WILL
TURN MORE SW TUE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUB ADVISORY
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING OVER THE WATERS THU.
ANOTHER SCA LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1130 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
WE ADDED POPS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL...PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WE WILL CANCEL THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY SHORTLY...EXCEPT FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES WHICH WE
EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z. A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SNOWBELT REGIONS OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND GUSTY
WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING GOING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND...AND WE EXTENDED THE MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. THE GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND OF SNOW WAS STARTING TO
DIMINISH...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE RAP13 SUGGESTED WOULD HAPPEN ABOUT
THIS TIME.
WINDS WERE STARTING TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35
MPH. WE WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GO UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...AND ARE LEANING TOWARD EXTENDING IT FOR BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON
COUNTIES. THOSE AREAS WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGHER ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WE`LL MONITOR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE MAKING OUR DECISION.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST AND WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THEM TONIGHT. VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH THE LOWEST READING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUED OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A GRAVITY WAVE IN THE KDLH RADAR
IMAGES. THE RAP SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z...SO WE
WILL INCREASE POPS/SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS/BAYFIELD
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. WE ALSO
INCREASED POPS ELSEWHERE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AT LEAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND THE ONSET OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EWD THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
TAPER OFF OVER NE MN AND MUCH OF NW WI THIS EVENING. A STRONG
INFLUX OF COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH NRN BAYFIELD...AND
ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES INTO NRN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. THE STRONG
NW WINDS...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER PRETTY MUCH
THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND. THE LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR WHERE HIGHER
SNOW AMTS FELL LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
COINCIDE. THIS WILL BE APPROXIMATELY FROM THE LEECH LAKE/BRAINERD
LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS/I-35 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE NORTH
AND SOUTH SHORES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...A STRONG PUSH OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE N/NW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AND PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES -35 TO -45. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BACK DOWN LATE
MONDAY. A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH MODERATION EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WE
SHOULD SEE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 35 BELOW IN THE
NORTH TO 25 TO 30 BELOW IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA. WE EVEN
WENT WITH SOME 30 BELOW READINGS IN PORTIONS OF NW WI. WIND CHILL
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 BELOW RANGE IN THE
NORTH...AND 40 TO 50 BELOW RANGE IN THE SOUTH. THIS COULD EASILY BE
ONE OF OUR COLDER NIGHTS OF THE WINTER. H85 TEMPS ALREADY START TO
MODERATE ON TUESDAY...CLIMBING TO -16 TO -19C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WAA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NW
TO SE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
VALUES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ON
TUESDAY...THEY SHOULD REACH INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT LITTLE TO NO
SNOWFALL DURING THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY VERY MINOR
SYSTEMS. THE SIX TO TEN AND EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY FORECASTS CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH SOUNDS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND AS THE VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WERE
OCCURRING IN SPOTS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
IN OTHERS IN SNOW SHOWERS. WE EXPECT VARIABLE CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING MOSTLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WE ALSO EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH LATE. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN WE WILL SEE A MVFR DECK OF CU DEVELOP ON
MONDAY...BUT WE DID NOT ADD ANY CEILINGS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -23 -13 -29 -6 / 60 10 0 0
INL -27 -17 -33 -5 / 40 10 0 0
BRD -24 -13 -31 -3 / 30 10 0 0
HYR -21 -12 -32 -4 / 60 10 0 0
ASX -17 -11 -26 -2 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ012-
019>021-037.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
025-026-033>038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
002-006>009.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
412 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...ARCTIC
AIR WILL SURGE BACK ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND USHER IN A RETURN
TO BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY. AT 400 AM...THE FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO
BUFFALO...WITH THIS BOUNDARY FORECAST TO RACE EASTWARD TO ROCHESTER
AND WATERTOWN AROUND DAYBREAK...AND EXITING EAST OF THE CWA BY
MID-MORNING. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATION...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 WHERE
TERRAIN WILL HELP ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK IN
PLACE...GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. THIS COMBINED WITH A SNOW BURST OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL PRODUCE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW WILL END ABRUPTLY FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LEANED ON THE HRRR FOR THE ULTRA-SHORT RANGE THROUGH
MID-MORNING...DUE TO ITS EXCELLENT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SATELLITE HINTS THAT A DRY SLOT OF AIR WILL MOVE IN IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PARTY SUNNY
SKIES TO THE REGION...AND IT IS ALSO LIKELY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THIS...EXPECT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND UPSLOPING TO PRODUCE A
GENERAL MODERATE SNOWFALL...FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN FACE OF THE TUG
HILL. AFTER THIS...WINDS WILL DROP OFF A BIT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A CONVERGENCE BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE MOISTURE...AND CAUSE THE
LAKE EFFECT BAND TO MEANDER NORTH AHEAD OF IT...AND THEN DROP SOUTH
WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BAND WILL STAY FOCUSED
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN
PLACE. OUTSIDE OF THIS...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES...SINCE LAKE ERIE IS PRIMARILY FROZEN.
OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY...FOLLOWING A RELATIVELY WARM START EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING
WINDS TONIGHT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 30 BELOW TONIGHT. WITH
A CONVERGENCE BAND FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT
WINDS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO STAY MORE WEST WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
COLDEST AIR TO REACH THESE AREAS AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL WARNING TO THESE ZONES AS WELL...BUT KEPT
THE ADVISORY IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW
OFF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY
MORNING AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED US
BY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO START THE DAY BELOW ZERO...WITH AROUND ZERO
AND BELOW ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A
SOUTHWEST WIND STILL 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS...WITH WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUING AS
OUTLINED BELOW. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...SOME 15 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ALSO ONGOING TUESDAY WILL BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT BEHIND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL LOWER LAKE INSTABILITY
FROM EXTREME TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WARMING WILL ALSO
LOWER THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM AND CAPE VALUES...THOUGH THAT
SAID THE LAKE BAND OF SNOW WILL STILL BE DUMPING SNOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO...THOUGH POSSIBLY NOT AT THE RATE IT WAS DOING MONDAY
NIGHT...AS IT ALSO LOSES ITS UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EXPANDS EASTWARD...AND AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OUR SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK SOME THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SUCH THAT THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL LIFT FROM OSWEGO COUNTY BACK INTO JEFFERSON
AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER THIS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR DIMINISHES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE LAKE EFFECT BAND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING. A STILL BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND
COMBINED WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL COLD WIND CHILLS WITH HEADLINES AGAIN LIKELY.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANY LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ENDING ACROSS
THE WATERTOWN AND NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE LAKE. WITH WINDS NOW
SOUTHERLY...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT OUR LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF ZERO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN NOAM REGION WILL SLIP
NORTHEASTWARD AND MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVES TROUGHS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CANADA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE INTEGRITY OF THE POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. THE ONE SUBTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS THAT THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO
QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
20S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LIKELY
TIMER PERIOD FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY...THOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS TO MOST
TAF SITES. AFTER THIS...EXPECT GUSTY WIND TO CAUSE SOME BLOWING
SNOW...WITH THIS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS TAPER
OFF A BIT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH OF ART THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR TO IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL UPGRADE TO GALES ON LAKE ERIE...FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP ON LAKE
ONTARIO AS A CLIPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ARCTIC AIR
SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THE GALES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TODAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THIS PAST STRETCH OF THREE MONTHS (NOVEMBER...DECEMBER...JANUARY TO
DATE) HAVE THUS FAR BEEN VERY COLD...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO
RECENT WINTER SEASONS. BUT HOW DOES THIS WINTER STRETCH COMPARE TO
SOME OF THE HISTORICAL COLD WINTERS OVER THIS SAME NOVEMBER TO
JANUARY STRETCH?
BELOW IS A RANKING OF COLD WINTER STRETCHES BASED ON THEIR
NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY MEAN TEMPERATURES. AGAIN FOR THIS LIST THE
WINTER STRETCH IS DEFINED AS NOVEMBER, DECEMBER AND JANUARY FOR
BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.
BUFFALO
RANK SEASON MEAN TEMPERATURE
1 1976-77 23.3
2 1917-18 23.3
3 1880-81 23.8
4 1919-20 25.8
5 1876-77 26.6
..
10 1904-05 27.6
..
12 1995-96 27.8
..
20 1958-59 28.7
21 2013-14 28.8 (VALUE THROUGH 1/26)
RECENT NOVEMBER-JANUARY STRETCHES...
SEASON MEAN TEMPERATURE
2010-11 29.7
2011-12 37.4
2012-13 35.2
ROCHESTER
RANK SEASON MEAN TEMPERATURE
1 1917-18 23.3
2 1976-77 24.8
3 1872-73 24.9
4 1880-81 25.6
5 1919-20 26.1
..
10 1876-77 26.7
..
19 1995-96 28.0
20 1942-43 28.1
..
30 1970-71 28.8
31 2002-03 29.0
32 2013-14 29.1 (VALUE THROUGH 1/26)
RECENT NOVEMBER-JANUARY STRETCHES...
SEASON MEAN TEMPERATURE
2010-11 29.3
2011-12 37.1
2012-13 35.2
AS WE CAN SEE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS HAVE BEEN VERY COLD,
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT WINTER SEASONS. IN FACT THIS 3
MONTH STRETCH WILL BE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE PAST 2
YEARS OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING THERE HAVE
BEEN MANY STRETCHES IN WINTER (NOVEMBER- DECEMBER- JANUARY) THAT
HAVE BEEN COLDER. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN
JANUARY...AND THIS RANKING WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS WE CLOSE OUT
THE MONTH...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THIS STRETCH OF THREE MONTHS WILL
BE THE COLDEST SINCE THE NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY STRETCH OF
1995-96. RECORDS FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO 1871.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ001>003-010>012-019-020-085.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ006>008.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ006>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-041.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043>045-
063>065.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED
ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA
TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW
SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP
TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN
VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS
DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL
MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL
HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED
PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL
LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD
FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS
OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND
LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND INTO CPV BTWN 15Z-
17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z. VALUES OFF THE
SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS ALSO
DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS
WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ`S MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS
OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM.
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED.
GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE
CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN
GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW
LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS
MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA.
PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z
TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO
THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO
M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F
HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55
TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT
OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR
REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE
ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES.
HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE
ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED
FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY
ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30
KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY
EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL
BE ACRS SLV/DACKS.
ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS
NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF
PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE
EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C
ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS
VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTHWEST FLW.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND
DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED
VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 5
ABOVE AND 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MILDEST READINGS
WILL BE IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS DUE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. COLD SPOTS WILL BE THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AS IT DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS BOTH
PERIODS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS 25 TO 30 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...BUT THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. GFS MAINTAINS ZONAL FLOW AND SHOWS LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE WHICH TRACKS OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP INTO SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLES PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AROUND 30. BOTH MODELS INDICATE CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AT BTV...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOSE TO 30 KTS AT BTV/MSS/SLK BY 12Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY 14-18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE
W-SW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH W-SW WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH W-SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A FEW MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED
ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA
TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW
SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP
TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN
VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS
DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL
MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL
HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED
PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL
LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD
FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS
OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND
LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND INTO CPV BTWN 15Z-
17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z. VALUES OFF THE
SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS ALSO
DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS
WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ`S MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS
OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM.
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED.
GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE
CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN
GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW
LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS
MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA.
PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z
TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO
THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO
M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F
HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55
TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT
OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR
REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE
ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES.
HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE
ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED
FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY
ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30
KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY
EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL
BE ACRS SLV/DACKS.
ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS
NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF
PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE
EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C
ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS
VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTHWEST FLW.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND
DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED
VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
AVERAGES FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NEWD
ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS
GENERALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ENOUGH WSWLY FLOW MAY PERSIST TO
BRING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SRN ST.
LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z GFS. A LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SRN PORTIONS OF ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...DESPITE DEVELOPING SWLY
WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR GOOD RADIATIVE
COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A LIGHT SOUTH/SW WIND
WILL PREVAIL IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS...KEEPING
TEMPS FROM FALLING QUICKLY IN THOSE AREAS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOW-MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS...TO 0 TO -8F ELSEWHERE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHTER WINDS. MID-UPPER FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO WSWLY
THURSDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BECOME S-SW AS WELL. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...FROM -20C TO -22C AT 18Z WEDNESDAY...UP TO AROUND
-10C BY 18Z THU. THIS - IN TURN - WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE MID-UPR 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THU-SUN. DECAYING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
THEREAFTER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BUT IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVES STAY GENERALLY SOUTH OF OUR
REGION IN 12Z GFS/ECMWF. HAVE TRENDED CONDITIONS DRIER FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH JUST 20-30 POPS FOR -SW ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AT BTV...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOSE TO 30 KTS AT BTV/MSS/SLK BY 12Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY 14-18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE
W-SW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH W-SW WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH W-SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A FEW MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
403 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THREE HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 6MB HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ONGOING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...
CAN/T RULE OUT GUSTY CONDITIONS WEST OF I-35 AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM12 AND RUC13 TRENDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD TONIGHT...BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALONG WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY BRING A ROUND OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND CALL FOR A MIXTURE OF SLEET
AND SNOW. ANY SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY
LIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO. THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
ROCKSPRINGS TO CUERO LINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AND SLEET
REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY... WHILE A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM
SAN ANTONIO NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IS LOW...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BUT GIVEN A NARROW REGION OF ORGANIZED LIFT...WE/LL ALSO MENTION
SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA COULD SEE
STRONGER LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND BOOSTED QPF A LITTLE.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR TUESDAY EVENING.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND COASTAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCREASE... A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS STILL IN
QUESTION AND WE/LL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 32 36 26 45 / - 20 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 30 36 22 43 / - 20 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 31 35 22 42 / - 10 30 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 44 27 36 22 44 / - 20 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 55 37 46 30 49 / 0 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 28 35 23 43 / - 20 20 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 33 39 24 48 / 0 10 20 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 47 31 35 22 43 / - 10 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 32 34 26 42 / - 10 40 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 51 35 37 27 45 / - 10 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 38 27 45 / - 10 20 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENT...LOCAL 88D IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWER BAND ALONG THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OSCEOLA/BREVARD COS AS
OF 15Z/10AM. EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THE BAND HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN
AND LAY OUT W-E AS ITS SOUTHWARD TACK HAS LOST CONSIDERABLE STEAM.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD COVER ALONG/NORTH OF
THE TROUGH/SHOWER BAND...WHILE SKIES ARE MCLEAR TO THE SOUTH. H20
VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANLYS SHOO ONE H50 IMPULSE DEPARTING OFFSHORE THE
FL EAST COAST...WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING INTO THE PENINSULA FROM THE
GOMEX. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS NORTH VS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...NORTH
LAKE/VOLUSIA WERE NEAR 60F WHILE THE LAKE OKEE/JUPITER REGION WAS
ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE M70S. MORNING RAOBS SHOW BOTH LOW LEVEL AND
MEAN MOISTURE HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS PROGGED
WITH PWATS ABOUT 1.3 TO 1.4"
REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE WEAK WILL DAMPEN OUT TODAY WITH THE RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTH FL BECOMING THE MAIN WX FEATURE. WEAK VORT ENERGY
ALOFT WILL ZIP ACROSS THE PENINSULA...REACHING THE ATLC SIDE BY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREMISE FOR PRECIP LOOKS ISOLATED AT BEST.
CLOUDS TO THE NORTH WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AS NRLY FLOW SLOWLY
BACKS AROUND TO WSW-SW....WHILE TO THE SOUTH...WARM SWRLY FLOW
WILL EASILY PUSH MAXES IN THE L80S...COMPARED TO M-U70S TO THE
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...SEVERAL AMDS NEEDED ACROSS LEE-SFB-DAB FOR STUBBORN
IFR CIGS BKN-OVC006-008...AND IT APPEARS THESE CLOUDS WILL NEED
A COUPLE MORE HRS TO BREAK UP AND LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO WRLY BREEZE WILL KEEP SEAS
1-2FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNSET. TOWARD
THIS END...SHAVED JUST A BIT OFF THE HIGH END OF SEA HGT GRIDS.
&&
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014/
TUESDAY...ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE SE ATLC COAST WITH A TRAILING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS WITH SOME FILTERED SUN ACROSS
SRN SECTIONS. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLGT CHC CENTRAL ZONES AND DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LWR-MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S/LWR
80S ACROSS SRN SECTIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND
PULL THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. PREVALENT
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE TWD NRN SECTIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM KISSIMMEE TO CAPE CANAVERAL.
WILL AGAIN KEEP A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
AND DRY FOR THE FAR SOUTH. LOWS MID 50S FAR NORTH AND LWR-MID 60S
FOR THE TREASURE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTENSIVE POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL. EXPECT LIKELY
SHOWERS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S FROM LEESBURG TO DAYTONA
BEACH...AROUND 70 IN MELBOURNE AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MARTIN
COUNTY.
WED NIGHT...GFS HINTS AT LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT WITH N-NE LOW LVL FLOW FROM THE SFC-H9...LOW LVL WAA AT H8 AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING H2 THROUGH AND
FAVORABLE RR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF RAIN SOME POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
FOR A TIME. SOME COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO NRN LAKE/INLAND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES WITH LOWS AROUND 40 DEGS. FOR RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE A COLD
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY
PRECIP IF GFS/NAM TEMP PROFILES VERIFY.
THU...00Z GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THU
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY LEANING TWD THE GFS AT THIS POINT. IF
GFS SLOW DOWN CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION MAY HAVE TO RAISE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE PRECIP PULLS OFFSHORE. HIGHS IN THE
60S NORTH TO LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.
FRI-SUN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GA TO START THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC WITH VEERING LOW LVL FLOW AND RISING MID LVL
HEIGHTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE CLIMO FOR
HIGHS BY SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80/LWR 80S SRN
SECTIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH NEAR SHORE OCEAN
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S. ENOUGH LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED BY SAT AFTN AND SUNDAY TO INSERT SOME SLGT SHOWER CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTH OF MLB VSBYS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH SOME TEMPO IFR. OCCASIONAL -RA POSSIBLE FROM ISM/MLB NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL CAUSE BRIEF LOWER VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TODAY
TO 10-15 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS
INCREASE A BIT TO 1-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE BUT WITH
PERIODS 9-10 SECONDS ONLY CHOP WILL BE FROM WINDS.
TUE-FRI...VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME S-SW
TUE NIGHT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND A FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY REQUIRED FOR MID WEEK. WINDS WILL
VEER AND LIGHTEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOW FOR MUCH
BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
609 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Will be updating shortly to expire the Wind Advisory. Some gusts
35 to 40 mph will be possible for a few more hours mainly over
southeast Missouri and adjacent portions of southern Illinois and
west Kentucky. As for the gridded forecast, skies, winds and
temperatures are reasonable shape, but the dewpoints have just
mixed down below zero over much of the area in the last hour.
Don`t usually mention dewpoints mixing down at sunrise, but this
isn`t an ordinary situation. Will attempt to adjust to the
exceedingly dry air, but all guidance is struggling to catch up to
it as well.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
No changes to headlines are planned with this forecast.
The Arctic cold front has cleared the entire area. A brief period
of gusts 40 to 50 mph developed right behind the front, but winds
have dropped off quite a bit in most locations. The LAMP guidance
is generating near advisory level winds through 12Z over southeast
Missouri generally in a zone from Cape Girardeau to New Madrid,
so will plan on leaving the Wind Advisory alone. The 12Z
expiration should workout well.
The RUC has been doing well with temperature trends behind the
front, so have followed it fairly closely through the day today.
It is never a comfortable feeling when the current temperatures
are considerably higher than the forecast high temperatures, but
that is rightfully the case this morning. Should see temperatures
bottom out around 15Z when they will range from 8 or 9 along I-64,
to 19 or 20 near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. A slight
moderating trend is expected through mid-afternoon, but a band of
fairly solid mid-level clouds will hamper it, especially in the
south. May see more recovery in the north than in the south.
Wind chills will also bottom out around 15Z, but current forecast
wind chills are only expected to range from -6 to -10 in the
Advisory area. Will let the wind chill advisory continue with
slightly higher than preferred wind chills. There is enough
uncertainty in the wind and temperature forecasts to allow a
little buffer in case conditions are worse than currently
forecast. Regardless, wind chills in the north through the
afternoon are not likely to reach above zero, and only single
digits above zero are expected in the south.
For lows tonight, the latest guidance is warmer (relative term)
than the previous forecast. I tried to blend the two, which
results in sub-zero temperatures only along and north of I-64. The
00Z NAM and GFS each show a swath of mid-clouds coming back north
across the southern half of the area overnight, which should help
hold up temperatures there, especially over southeast Missouri.
Some portions of southeast Missouri may not drop into the single
digits.
Wind chills will continue to be below zero through the night in
the north and eventually will get there through the entire area.
Some portions of the I-64 corridor may touch -10 again, but winds
are expected to drop off considerably in that region, so it may
just be cold with actual temperatures dropping to near zero. Will
let the day shift take a look at things before deciding whether
another advisory is warranted for tonight and early Tuesday. Will
issue another SPS to address the extent of the cold conditions
today through Wednesday morning.
Should see good coverage of mid-cloud as the primary large-scale
trough moves through the region Tuesday. With the main low-level
cold pool overhead during the day temperatures will only warm
into the teens. For Tuesday night, the GFS is the slowest to
develop a pressure gradient over the region, and really keeps
winds light or calm through the night. The NAM and ECMWF are more
aggressive with the return of southerly winds across the area
overnight. Decided to lean toward the GFS, and took lows down to
or a bit below MAV numbers. With sub-zero dewpoints across the
area and highs only in the teens, it may not be that far-fetched
for some at least isolated areas to drop close to zero overnight.
The low-level cold pool pushes east of the area Wednesday, and
decent southwest low-level flow develops. This will allow
temperatures to warm up into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with
portions of southeast Missouri maybe actually reaching the
freezing mark.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
By the start of the extended forecast period, the ECMWF/GFS ensemble
means appear to be in reasonable agreement in solutions showing the
wrn U.S. mid/upper trof finally breaking down and eventually being
replaced by a longwave trof. This will put the PAH forecast area
into swrly flow aloft. The smaller scale details are more uncertain,
though at least the 00z GFS/ECMWF operational runs agree fairly well.
Highs are expected to get above freezing through the period.
Early Fri, it appears the PAH forecast area will be in the warm
sector of an approaching sfc low pressure system. "Warm" is
relative, though, as temps and the vertical profile still appear to
be cold enough for snow, and perhaps sleet during the day Fri near
the AR/TN borders. Fri night, a sfc trof of low pressure should
cross our region somewhere in the vicinity, depending on model
solution. Low level warm air advection should keep pcpn liquid for
most of the region, except perhaps the I-64 corridor where
snow/sleet is more probable. An attendant cold front is forecast to
move through the PAH forecast area sometime early Sat, and pcpn may
be snow in the nrn third of the region, transitioning to rain
further south. The latest GFS/ECMWF runs show dry high pressure in
place by Sat night, but the initialization blend still contained
chance PoPs all the way through Sun. This was left in the forecast
at this time because of recent instability in the models. If pcpn
does occur, it may be a wintry mix for roughly the nrn half of the
our region Sat night and Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Latest guidance is keeping mid-level ceilings over the entire
region throughout the period, with little chance of any lower
cloud decks. Very gusty north winds will be strongest at the
beginning of the period for just a few hours and then a gradual
diminishing trend is expected through the remainder of the period.
The strongest winds this morning are likely to be at KCGI where
some gusts up to 35kts will still be possible for a few hours.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
080>087.
MO...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KYZ014-018-
019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
535 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
No changes to headlines are planned with this forecast.
The Arctic cold front has cleared the entire area. A brief period
of gusts 40 to 50 mph developed right behind the front, but winds
have dropped off quite a bit in most locations. The LAMP guidance
is generating near advisory level winds through 12Z over southeast
Missouri generally in a zone from Cape Girardeau to New Madrid,
so will plan on leaving the Wind Advisory alone. The 12Z
expiration should workout well.
The RUC has been doing well with temperature trends behind the
front, so have followed it fairly closely through the day today.
It is never a comfortable feeling when the current temperatures
are considerably higher than the forecast high temperatures, but
that is rightfully the case this morning. Should see temperatures
bottom out around 15Z when they will range from 8 or 9 along I-64,
to 19 or 20 near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. A slight
moderating trend is expected through mid-afternoon, but a band of
fairly solid mid-level clouds will hamper it, especially in the
south. May see more recovery in the north than in the south.
Wind chills will also bottom out around 15Z, but current forecast
wind chills are only expected to range from -6 to -10 in the
Advisory area. Will let the wind chill advisory continue with
slightly higher than preferred wind chills. There is enough
uncertainty in the wind and temperature forecasts to allow a
little buffer in case conditions are worse than currently
forecast. Regardless, wind chills in the north through the
afternoon are not likely to reach above zero, and only single
digits above zero are expected in the south.
For lows tonight, the latest guidance is warmer (relative term)
than the previous forecast. I tried to blend the two, which
results in sub-zero temperatures only along and north of I-64. The
00Z NAM and GFS each show a swath of mid-clouds coming back north
across the southern half of the area overnight, which should help
hold up temperatures there, especially over southeast Missouri.
Some portions of southeast Missouri may not drop into the single
digits.
Wind chills will continue to be below zero through the night in
the north and eventually will get there through the entire area.
Some portions of the I-64 corridor may touch -10 again, but winds
are expected to drop off considerably in that region, so it may
just be cold with actual temperatures dropping to near zero. Will
let the day shift take a look at things before deciding whether
another advisory is warranted for tonight and early Tuesday. Will
issue another SPS to address the extent of the cold conditions
today through Wednesday morning.
Should see good coverage of mid-cloud as the primary large-scale
trough moves through the region Tuesday. With the main low-level
cold pool overhead during the day temperatures will only warm
into the teens. For Tuesday night, the GFS is the slowest to
develop a pressure gradient over the region, and really keeps
winds light or calm through the night. The NAM and ECMWF are more
aggressive with the return of southerly winds across the area
overnight. Decided to lean toward the GFS, and took lows down to
or a bit below MAV numbers. With sub-zero dewpoints across the
area and highs only in the teens, it may not be that far-fetched
for some at least isolated areas to drop close to zero overnight.
The low-level cold pool pushes east of the area Wednesday, and
decent southwest low-level flow develops. This will allow
temperatures to warm up into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with
portions of southeast Missouri maybe actually reaching the
freezing mark.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
By the start of the extended forecast period, the ECMWF/GFS ensemble
means appear to be in reasonable agreement in solutions showing the
wrn U.S. mid/upper trof finally breaking down and eventually being
replaced by a longwave trof. This will put the PAH forecast area
into swrly flow aloft. The smaller scale details are more uncertain,
though at least the 00z GFS/ECMWF operational runs agree fairly well.
Highs are expected to get above freezing through the period.
Early Fri, it appears the PAH forecast area will be in the warm
sector of an approaching sfc low pressure system. "Warm" is
relative, though, as temps and the vertical profile still appear to
be cold enough for snow, and perhaps sleet during the day Fri near
the AR/TN borders. Fri night, a sfc trof of low pressure should
cross our region somewhere in the vicinity, depending on model
solution. Low level warm air advection should keep pcpn liquid for
most of the region, except perhaps the I-64 corridor where
snow/sleet is more probable. An attendant cold front is forecast to
move through the PAH forecast area sometime early Sat, and pcpn may
be snow in the nrn third of the region, transitioning to rain
further south. The latest GFS/ECMWF runs show dry high pressure in
place by Sat night, but the initialization blend still contained
chance PoPs all the way through Sun. This was left in the forecast
at this time because of recent instability in the models. If pcpn
does occur, it may be a wintry mix for roughly the nrn half of the
our region Sat night and Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Latest guidance is keeping mid-level ceilings over the entire
region throughout the period, with little chance of any lower
cloud decks. Very gusty north winds will be strongest at the
beginning of the period for just a few hours and then a gradual
diminishing trend is expected through the remainder of the period.
The strongest winds this morning are likely to be at KCGI where
some gusts up to 35kts will still be possible for a few hours.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ075>078-
080>087.
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR KYZ001>022.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KYZ014-018-
019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
957 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TODAY AND DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0930L: SNOW ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ATTM AS SFC LOW
PRES OVR SRN QUEBEC LIFTS NEWRD TOWARD THE AREA... STRONG WAA ON
THE E SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND UP ACROSS OUR AREA RESULTING IN BIG
TEMP DIFFS W/ TEMPS RANGING FROM JUST BLO ZERO FAR N TO THE LOWER
40S ON THE COAST. GETTING SOME COLD AIR DAMMING INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COAST AND THIS LEADING TO SOME PATCHY LGT FZRA BEING RPTD AT
KBGR LAST HR. HAVE UPDATE OUR GRIDS TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF
SOME LGT FZRA INTERIOR DOWNEAST THRU OUR CENTRAL ZNS TIL AROUND
NOON AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED
TRENDS. ANY ICE ACCUMS SHOULD BE LGT (<.05) BUT WILL ISSUE AN ADV
NONETHELESS FOR ZNS 15>17 AND 11/31/32.
7AM UPDATE...
REDUCED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON WARM ADVECTION. GOOD BANDING STILL APPEARS TO BE
LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING IN NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A
BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALL IN NORTHERN ZONES AS IT CROSSES.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC
WILL BRING A CLIPPER TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATE A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL FEATURE
OVERRUNNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AS A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER WITH A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 80 KT WINDS NEAR H850 BY
MIDDAY. THIS LLJ WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM SUBZERO READINGS IN
THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET.
IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER OF MAINE. UPSLOPE FACTORS
WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW IN ZONE 10 AND GREENVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MONTICELLO
AND MARS HILL. AM FAVORING THE REGIONAL GEMS AND NAM...AS WELL AS
THE HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEV ELOPEMENT IN NE MAINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDING STRETCHING FROM NE AROOSTOOK
TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE
ENTRANCE AREA OF A 170 KT UPPER JET WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW RATES MAY REACH OVER AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BANDING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE EVENT ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT OF ALL
THIS IS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1 THROUGH 6 AND ZONE 10 INTO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN NE AROOSTOOK.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE 31 IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND ZONE 11 IN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR INCLUSION TO THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 2 APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS BANGOR...THE OVERRUNNING SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD EQUATE
TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON THEIR
WAY TO THE UPPER 30S
A NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE
NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOW SINGLE DIGITS
BY DAYBREAK DOWN EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE END OF JANUARY. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN TUE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR WED EVENING...BUT
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE
THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION THU MORNING AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE MERCURY
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU PM. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
IS SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S NORTH AND M/U 20S DOWNEAST.
THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS A WEAK WAVE THAT
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE CANADIAN AND
LATEST 00Z/27TH ECMWF HAVE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN ONLY HAS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FROM ITS
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR THIS MORNING...LIFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL WITH VIS
IN SNOW DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 50KT AT FL020...BECOMING
SW LATER IN THE DAY. VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT
POSSIBLY FVE DUE TO MVFR CIGS.
SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRI. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY LATE WED IN ISO
-SHSN AND AGAIN FRI AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISO TO
SCT -SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SEAS
REACHING AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN SCA
THIS EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE IN WEST FLOW THAT WILL
TURN MORE SW TUE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUB ADVISORY
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING OVER THE WATERS THU.
ANOTHER SCA LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ015>017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/CB
MARINE...KHW/MCW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
655 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TODAY AND DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE...
REDUCED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON WARM ADVECTION. GOOD BANDING STILL APPEARS TO BE
LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING IN NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A
BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALL IN NORTHERN ZONES AS IT CROSSES.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC
WILL BRING A CLIPPER TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATE A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL FEATURE
OVERRUNNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AS A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER WITH A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 80 KT WINDS NEAR H850 BY
MIDDAY. THIS LLJ WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM SUBZERO READINGS IN
THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET.
IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER OF MAINE. UPSLOPE FACTORS
WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW IN ZONE 10 AND GREENVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MONTICELLO
AND MARS HILL. AM FAVORING THE REGIONAL GEMS AND NAM...AS WELL AS
THE HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEV ELOPEMENT IN NE MAINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDING STRETCHING FROM NE AROOSTOOK
TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE
ENTRANCE AREA OF A 170 KT UPPER JET WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW RATES MAY REACH OVER AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BANDING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE EVENT ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT OF ALL
THIS IS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1 THROUGH 6 AND ZONE 10 INTO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN NE AROOSTOOK.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE 31 IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND ZONE 11 IN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR INCLUSION TO THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 2 APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS BANGOR...THE OVERRUNNING SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD EQUATE
TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON THEIR
WAY TO THE UPPER 30S
A NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE
NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOW SINGLE DIGITS
BY DAYBREAK DOWN EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE END OF JANUARY. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN TUE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR WED EVENING...BUT
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE
THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION THU MORNING AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE MERCURY
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU PM. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
IS SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S NORTH AND M/U 20S DOWNEAST.
THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS A WEAK WAVE THAT
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE CANADIAN AND
LATEST 00Z/27TH ECMWF HAVE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN ONLY HAS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FROM ITS
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR THIS MORNING...LIFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL WITH VIS
IN SNOW DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 50KT AT FL020...BECOMING
SW LATER IN THE DAY. VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT
POSSIBLY FVE DUE TO MVFR CIGS.
SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRI. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY LATE WED IN ISO
-SHSN AND AGAIN FRI AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISO TO
SCT -SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SEAS
REACHING AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN SCA
THIS EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE IN WEST FLOW THAT WILL
TURN MORE SW TUE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUB ADVISORY
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING OVER THE WATERS THU.
ANOTHER SCA LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMES BAY. CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS NOW
SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -31C
850MB TEMPS INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -33C OVER FAR NE
MN. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...MESOLOW...MDT/HVY LES
AND STRONG WINDS MOVED ONSHORE IN ALGER COUNTY LAST NIGHT AS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ALGER
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SHIFTING STEADILY E AS WINDS
SLOWLY BACK. THESE MAIN LES BANDS ARE NOW EAST OF MUNISING. THERE
HASN`T BEEN MUCH LES WEST OF THESE HEAVIER LES BANDS OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN ALLOWED THE BROKEN
ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SOLIDIFY. HOWEVER...IN
THE LAST HR OR TWO...KMQT RADAR IS SHOWING LES BANDS BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE AND STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...A
SIGN THAT ICE MAY BE OPENING UP AGAIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T TAKE MUCH OPEN WATER TO GET LES GOING...
ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. OUT W...KCMX/KIWD HAVE HAD
VIS GENERALLY BTWN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM IN -SHSN/BLSN OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE THRU NE MN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN HEAVIER LES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS RIBBON OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A NOTABLE
DECLINE IN LES INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE HEAVIER LES EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE VERY COLD AIR
KEEPING THE COLUMN FREE OF THE DGZ. WILL ALLOW ONGOING HEADLINES
PERTAINING TO LES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOME AND HEAVIER LES
DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS E. THAT SAID...BLSN WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM
DURING THE AFTN IN OPEN AREAS. ADDED LES ADVY TO LUCE COUNTY AS
BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES AND VERY POOR VIS SHIFT ACROSS THE COUNTY...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE LES/BLSN WILL BECOME CONFINED MAINLY
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY. OUT
W...LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.
CERTAINLY SHSN...SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
AS THIS MORNING.
WIND CHILLS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE AS OF 5 AM EST OVER
MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI...AND A FEW SPOTS OUT W ARE NEARING
-35F NOW. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS AT MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL TO OR BLO -35F DURING THE MORNING
HRS.
WINDS BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT...SHIFTING LES TO BE CONFINED MORE TO NW
UPPER MI...KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE THE USUAL CONVERGENCE
INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION...BUT IT`S A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP DUE TO AREAS OF ICE
ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ALTERING THE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. IN ANY
EVENT...DID HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
SHIFTING N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DIDN`T
GO CRAZY WITH LOW TEMPS AS A STEADY WIND WILL BE BLOWING. IF HIGH
PRES WAS OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS
WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT
THAT`S NOT THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE
-10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL
FALL TO -30 TO -45F. ON A SIDE NOTE...NAM MOS SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY COLD
MINS TONIGHT (-30F AT KSAW/-23F AT KCMX/-16F AT KP59 FOR
EXAMPLE)...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE MODEL INCORRECTLY DEPICTING WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AS TOTALLY ICE COVERED. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
ICE COVER...OR THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER LIKELY BEING CALCULATED IN
SOME OF THE FCST MODELS IS HAVING AN IMPACT. RECENT HIGH WINDS HAVE
BROKEN UP MUCH OF THE ICE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
IMPACTED...AS WELL AS THE SMALL-SCALE MODELS THAT USE THE NAM AS A
BASELINE. SKY COVER...QPF...AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW IN
ONSHORE WIND SCENARIOS...AND WINDS COULD BE TOO LOW OR TOO STRONG.
THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FCST PROCESS. RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MORE HAND EDITING AS NEEDED TO FIT THE
CONCEPTUAL MODELS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST
NATIONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 20S. WE WILL NOT BE REACHING NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TO START OUT TUESDAY...WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
W-SW WINDS 10-15MPH AND TEMPS AROUND -10 TO -20F WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30 TO NEAR 45 BELOW ZERO RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W HALF...FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. WILL HOWEVER NEED NEW HEADLINES
FOR ALGER/N SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS CURRENT SNOW HEADLINES EXPIRE LATER
TODAY. FOR TUESDAY UPPER MI WILL REMAIN LOCKED BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER S HUDSON BAY THROUGH N QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
IN OUR STEADY W-NW FLOW OF COLD AIR...BEFORE SW WINDS SHIFT ANY
LINGERING LES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RISING FROM AN AVERAGE -25C TO -10C
BY 00Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS 15-20F.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY NOTHING
MORE THAN A 3-4HR DIFFERENCE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER TO
TURN THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND
BRING BACK LES. ASSUMING THAT THE STRONG WINDS OF 20-30KTS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TOO MUCH ICE FROM FORMING OVER THE
LAKE...CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE LES POTENTIAL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND EAST
OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DGZ EVEN MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS...AND WILL LIKELY PLAY A
ROLL IN HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST MOISTURE IS STILL JUST ABOVE THE DGZ.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NW TO W...SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END AT KIWD TODAY. UNTIL THEN...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
WILL TREND TO MVFR BY AFTN THEN TO VFR BY LATE AFTN. AT KCMX...
EXPECT CONDITIONS VARYING BTWN IFR AND LIFR THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
A TREND TO PREVAILING LIFR FOR THE AFTN AND TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK
MORE TO THE W AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...RESULTING IN MORE VIS
RESTRICTION FROM BLSN. NW TO W WINDS WILL BE THE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR
-SHSN AT KSAW WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. EXPECT
CONDITIONS VARYING BTWN VFR AND MVFR TODAY WITH VFR PREVAILING
TONIGHT UNDER DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES OF
35-45KTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINLING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...ANOTHE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN HUDSON BAY...AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OF EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>014-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-014-085.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-
266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
529 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMES BAY. CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS NOW
SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -31C
850MB TEMPS INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -33C OVER FAR NE
MN. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...MESOLOW...MDT/HVY LES
AND STRONG WINDS MOVED ONSHORE IN ALGER COUNTY LAST NIGHT AS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ALGER
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SHIFTING STEADILY E AS WINDS
SLOWLY BACK. THESE MAIN LES BANDS ARE NOW EAST OF MUNISING. THERE
HASN`T BEEN MUCH LES WEST OF THESE HEAVIER LES BANDS OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN ALLOWED THE BROKEN
ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SOLIDIFY. HOWEVER...IN
THE LAST HR OR TWO...KMQT RADAR IS SHOWING LES BANDS BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE AND STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...A
SIGN THAT ICE MAY BE OPENING UP AGAIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T TAKE MUCH OPEN WATER TO GET LES GOING...
ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. OUT W...KCMX/KIWD HAVE HAD
VIS GENERALLY BTWN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM IN -SHSN/BLSN OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE THRU NE MN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN HEAVIER LES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS RIBBON OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A NOTABLE
DECLINE IN LES INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE HEAVIER LES EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE VERY COLD AIR
KEEPING THE COLUMN FREE OF THE DGZ. WILL ALLOW ONGOING HEADLINES
PERTAINING TO LES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOME AND HEAVIER LES
DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS E. THAT SAID...BLSN WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM
DURING THE AFTN IN OPEN AREAS. ADDED LES ADVY TO LUCE COUNTY AS
BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES AND VERY POOR VIS SHIFT ACROSS THE COUNTY...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE LES/BLSN WILL BECOME CONFINED MAINLY
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY. OUT
W...LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.
CERTAINLY SHSN...SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
AS THIS MORNING.
WIND CHILLS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE AS OF 5 AM EST OVER
MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI...AND A FEW SPOTS OUT W ARE NEARING
-35F NOW. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS AT MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL TO OR BLO -35F DURING THE MORNING
HRS.
WINDS BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT...SHIFTING LES TO BE CONFINED MORE TO NW
UPPER MI...KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE THE USUAL CONVERGENCE
INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION...BUT IT`S A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP DUE TO AREAS OF ICE
ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ALTERING THE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. IN ANY
EVENT...DID HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
SHIFTING N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DIDN`T
GO CRAZY WITH LOW TEMPS AS A STEADY WIND WILL BE BLOWING. IF HIGH
PRES WAS OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS
WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT
THAT`S NOT THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE
-10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL
FALL TO -30 TO -45F. ON A SIDE NOTE...NAM MOS SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY COLD
MINS TONIGHT (-30F AT KSAW/-23F AT KCMX/-16F AT KP59 FOR
EXAMPLE)...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE MODEL INCORRECTLY DEPICTING WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AS TOTALLY ICE COVERED. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
ICE COVER...OR THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER LIKELY BEING CALCULATED IN
SOME OF THE FCST MODELS IS HAVING AN IMPACT. RECENT HIGH WINDS HAVE
BROKEN UP MUCH OF THE ICE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
IMPACTED...AS WELL AS THE SMALL-SCALE MODELS THAT USE THE NAM AS A
BASELINE. SKY COVER...QPF...AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW IN
ONSHORE WIND SCENARIOS...AND WINDS COULD BE TOO LOW OR TOO STRONG.
THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FCST PROCESS. RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MORE HAND EDITING AS NEEDED TO FIT THE
CONCEPTUAL MODELS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST
NATIONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 20S. WE WILL NOT BE REACHING NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TO START OUT TUESDAY...WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
W-SW WINDS 10-15MPH AND TEMPS AROUND -10 TO -20F WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30 TO NEAR 45 BELOW ZERO RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W HALF...FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. WILL HOWEVER NEED NEW HEADLINES
FOR ALGER/N SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS CURRENT SNOW HEADLINES EXPIRE LATER
TODAY. FOR TUESDAY UPPER MI WILL REMAIN LOCKED BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER S HUDSON BAY THROUGH N QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
IN OUR STEADY W-NW FLOW OF COLD AIR...BEFORE SW WINDS SHIFT ANY
LINGERING LES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RISING FROM AN AVERAGE -25C TO -10C
BY 00Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS 15-20F.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY NOTHING
MORE THAN A 3-4HR DIFFERENCE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER TO
TURN THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND
BRING BACK LES. ASSUMING THAT THE STRONG WINDS OF 20-30KTS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TOO MUCH ICE FROM FORMING OVER THE
LAKE...CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE LES POTENTIAL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND EAST
OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DGZ EVEN MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS...AND WILL LIKELY PLAY A
ROLL IN HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST MOISTURE IS STILL JUST ABOVE THE DGZ.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX THROUGH TODAY AS WINDS BACK
TO A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR THE FINE FLAKE SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW THAT WOULD LEAD TO AIRFIELD LANDING MINS. ALTHOUGH THE SLOW
BACKING TREND WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO IWD
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY IFR VSBY UNTIL MORNING WHEN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS LIKELY.
THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR LES AT KSAW WITH
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE SITE. SO...MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CIGS EVEN LIFTING TO VFR AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES OF
35-45KTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINLING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...ANOTHE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN HUDSON BAY...AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OF EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-014-085.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-
266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
919 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED
ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST MONDAY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES NEEDED TO TODAY`S
FORECAST THIS MORNING MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TEMP AND RADAR
TRENDS. SNOW STILL HOLDING BACK IN THE SLV AS OF 9AM BUT WILL BE
RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE SURFACE
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT HAVE SHOT UP ABOVE 40 DEGREES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY
FALLING TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL
IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER
LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE
COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC
COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT
WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND
COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY
DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND
INTO CPV BTWN 15Z- 17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z.
VALUES OFF THE SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS
ALSO DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ`S MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM.
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED.
GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE
CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN
GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW
LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS
MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA.
PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z
TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO
THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO
M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F
HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55
TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT
OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR
REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE
ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES.
HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE
ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED
FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY
ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30
KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY
EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL
BE ACRS SLV/DACKS.
ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS
NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF
PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE
EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C
ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS
VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTHWEST FLW.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND
DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED
VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 5
ABOVE AND 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MILDEST READINGS
WILL BE IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS DUE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. COLD SPOTS WILL BE THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AS IT DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS BOTH
PERIODS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS 25 TO 30 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...BUT THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. GFS MAINTAINS ZONAL FLOW AND SHOWS LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE WHICH TRACKS OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP INTO SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLES PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AROUND 30. BOTH MODELS INDICATE CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z WITH BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT FROPA IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 15Z-16Z AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AT MPV/RUT. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT AT SLK WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.
SOUTH WINDS QUITE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS
EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY WITH W-SW WINDS
GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED
ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EST MONDAY...FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE TIMING OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FASTER WITH PRECIP ARRIVING/DEPARTING OUR CWA
TODAY...WITH CRNT RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE SLV.
THIS WL EXPAND INTO THE DACKS BY 12Z AND INTO THE CPV BTWN 13Z-15Z
TODAY. ALSO...EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACRS THE MTNS OF VT
BY 14Z TODAY. HAVE INCREASED TIMING BY 1 TO 2 HRS ON HRLY POP
GRIDS...BUT KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THE SAME. HAVE NOTED SNINCR`S
AT ROC/BUF OF 1 INCH IN 1 HR ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND THE
ACCOMPANYING SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WITH VIS BRIEFLY < 1/4SM. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACRS PARTS OF OUR CWA TODAY. ALSO...HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES BEFORE FROPA OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN CPV. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
QUICKLY FALL THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL
IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER
LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE
COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC
COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT
WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND
COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY
DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND
INTO CPV BTWN 15Z- 17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z.
VALUES OFF THE SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS
ALSO DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ`S MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM.
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED.
GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE
CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN
GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW
LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS
MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA.
PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z
TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO
THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO
M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F
HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55
TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT
OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR
REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE
ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES.
HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE
ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED
FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY
ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30
KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY
EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL
BE ACRS SLV/DACKS.
ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS
NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF
PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE
EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C
ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS
VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTHWEST FLW.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND
DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED
VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 5
ABOVE AND 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MILDEST READINGS
WILL BE IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS DUE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. COLD SPOTS WILL BE THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AS IT DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS BOTH
PERIODS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS 25 TO 30 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...BUT THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. GFS MAINTAINS ZONAL FLOW AND SHOWS LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE WHICH TRACKS OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP INTO SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLES PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AROUND 30. BOTH MODELS INDICATE CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AT BTV...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOSE TO 30 KTS AT BTV/MSS/SLK BY 12Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY 14-18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE
W-SW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH W-SW WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH W-SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A FEW MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
906 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
FALLING. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT READINGS WILL STEADY OUT BY
MIDDAY AND THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY MINOR DIURNAL
BUMP. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS WHICH MAY DELAY WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE SUB -25 RANGE. BUT DO NOT PLAN ON ANY CHANGES TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING. MID CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE BITTER COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSES IN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL LKLY BE
THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON RANGING FROM -16 OVER THE NW TO -7 SE.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACRS THE NW AND STRUGGLE
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SE.
STRONG WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW
TO 35 BELOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR THESE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
THERE WILL LKLY BE A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTN WHERE WIND CHILLS VALUES
ARE ABOVE THE -25 WARNING CRITERIA AND ABOVE -10 OVER THE SOUTH FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BUT THESE READINGS WILL DROP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER BITTER COLD
NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS IN 5 BELOW TO 10
BELOW ZERO RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THRU THE DAY TUESDAY THRU WED MORNING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE BUT STILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR LESS PRECIPITATION.
BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN SHARPEN UP LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW IN THE NORTH BUT A MIX AND THEN
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AS A STRONG COLD FRONT EXITS
EAST. LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAP MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT SOUTHERN
TAF SITES CVG LUK AND ILN...WHILE NORTHERN SITES DAY CMH AND LCK
WILL SEE SCT MID CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH
SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ078-079-081-082-088.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073-074.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK TO MORE
SEASONABLE READINGS BUT PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOCUS TODAY IS ON BITTER COLD OUTBREAK AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MID/UPR FLOW WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM S
CNTRL CANADA WILL DROP SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WORKING TO AMPLIFY
THE TROF OVER THE REGION. SFC LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TRACK TO THE NE WITH WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER
FAR EASTERN OHIO...EASTERN KY. STG PRESSURE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET
HAD EARLY RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FROPA.
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ATTM. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED WIND
ADVISORY.
STRONG CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS WAS RESULTING IN
TEMPS FALLING TO READINGS FROM THE SINGLE DIGEST NW TO UPPER TEENS
SE BY SUNRISE.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POOL OF 8H TEMPS OF -23 TO -28 C TO PUSH
INTO OHIO THIS AFTN AND ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH FALLING TEMPS TODAY WITH READINGS BY LATE AFTN BELOW ZERO NW
TO SINGLE DIGITS SE.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. SO HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
WIND CHILL REACHING -10 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACRS THE NW 2 THIRDS THIS MORNING. SO HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY
FOR THIS AREA THRU THE MORNING. WITH WIND CHILLS PLUNGING BY
EVENING TO 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW EXPECT TO START TO APPROACH WIND
CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE KEPT
WINCH CHILL WARNING BEGINNING AT NOON. ACRS THE FAR SOUTH HAVE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY STARTING AT NOON WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING 10
BELOW LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE BITTER COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSES IN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL LKLY BE
THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON RANGING FROM -16 OVER THE NW TO -7 SE.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACRS THE NW AND STRUGGLE
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SE.
STRONG WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW
TO 35 BELOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR THESE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
THERE WILL LKLY BE A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTN WHERE WIND CHILLS VALUES
ARE ABOVE THE -25 WARNING CRITERIA AND ABOVE -10 OVER THE SOUTH FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BUT THESE READINGS WILL DROP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER BITTER COLD
NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS IN 5 BELOW TO 10
BELOW ZERO RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THRU THE DAY TUESDAY THRU WED MORNING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE BUT STILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR LESS PRECIPITATION.
BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN SHARPEN UP LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW IN THE NORTH BUT A MIX AND THEN
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AS A STRONG COLD FRONT EXITS
EAST. LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAP MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT SOUTHERN
TAF SITES CVG LUK AND ILN...WHILE NORTHERN SITES DAY CMH AND LCK
WILL SEE SCT MID CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH
SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ078-079-081-082-088.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073-074.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
538 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR IS BEING FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE TODAY
WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO 35 KT BY THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ARCTIC FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF
AUS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SAT BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS. GUSTS TO OVER 30 KT WILL SOON FOLLOW THE FROPA. MODELS ARE
NOT DEVELOPING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT SO
HAVE INCLUDED MAINLY CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF FORECAST. HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW SOME HIGHER
RH VALUES AROUND 850MB LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE
BROUGHT IN SOME DECKS AT THIS LEVEL BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY MVFR
CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST HAS LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AROUND THE AUS
AREA...BUT WITH POP SO LOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE AUS TAF AT
THIS TIME. SAME REASONING GOES WITH SAT/SSF LATER ON TUE WITH LOW
CHANCE POP FOR -FZRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THREE HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 6MB HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ONGOING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...
CAN/T RULE OUT GUSTY CONDITIONS WEST OF I-35 AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM12 AND RUC13 TRENDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD TONIGHT...BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALONG WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY BRING A ROUND OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND CALL FOR A MIXTURE OF SLEET
AND SNOW. ANY SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY
LIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO. THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
ROCKSPRINGS TO CUERO LINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AND SLEET
REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY... WHILE A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM
SAN ANTONIO NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IS LOW...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BUT GIVEN A NARROW REGION OF ORGANIZED LIFT...WE/LL ALSO MENTION
SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA COULD SEE
STRONGER LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND BOOSTED QPF A LITTLE.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR TUESDAY EVENING.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND COASTAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCREASE... A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS STILL IN
QUESTION AND WE/LL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 32 36 26 45 / - 20 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 30 36 22 43 / - 20 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 31 35 22 42 / - 10 30 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 44 27 36 22 44 / - 20 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 55 37 46 30 49 / 0 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 28 35 23 43 / - 20 20 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 33 39 24 48 / 0 10 20 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 47 31 35 22 43 / - 10 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 32 34 26 42 / - 10 40 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 51 35 37 27 45 / - 10 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 38 27 45 / - 10 20 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1135 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Will be updating shortly to expire the Wind Advisory. Some gusts
35 to 40 mph will be possible for a few more hours mainly over
southeast Missouri and adjacent portions of southern Illinois and
west Kentucky. As for the gridded forecast, skies, winds and
temperatures are reasonable shape, but the dewpoints have just
mixed down below zero over much of the area in the last hour.
Don`t usually mention dewpoints mixing down at sunrise, but this
isn`t an ordinary situation. Will attempt to adjust to the
exceedingly dry air, but all guidance is struggling to catch up to
it as well.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
No changes to headlines are planned with this forecast.
The Arctic cold front has cleared the entire area. A brief period
of gusts 40 to 50 mph developed right behind the front, but winds
have dropped off quite a bit in most locations. The LAMP guidance
is generating near advisory level winds through 12Z over southeast
Missouri generally in a zone from Cape Girardeau to New Madrid,
so will plan on leaving the Wind Advisory alone. The 12Z
expiration should workout well.
The RUC has been doing well with temperature trends behind the
front, so have followed it fairly closely through the day today.
It is never a comfortable feeling when the current temperatures
are considerably higher than the forecast high temperatures, but
that is rightfully the case this morning. Should see temperatures
bottom out around 15Z when they will range from 8 or 9 along I-64,
to 19 or 20 near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. A slight
moderating trend is expected through mid-afternoon, but a band of
fairly solid mid-level clouds will hamper it, especially in the
south. May see more recovery in the north than in the south.
Wind chills will also bottom out around 15Z, but current forecast
wind chills are only expected to range from -6 to -10 in the
Advisory area. Will let the wind chill advisory continue with
slightly higher than preferred wind chills. There is enough
uncertainty in the wind and temperature forecasts to allow a
little buffer in case conditions are worse than currently
forecast. Regardless, wind chills in the north through the
afternoon are not likely to reach above zero, and only single
digits above zero are expected in the south.
For lows tonight, the latest guidance is warmer (relative term)
than the previous forecast. I tried to blend the two, which
results in sub-zero temperatures only along and north of I-64. The
00Z NAM and GFS each show a swath of mid-clouds coming back north
across the southern half of the area overnight, which should help
hold up temperatures there, especially over southeast Missouri.
Some portions of southeast Missouri may not drop into the single
digits.
Wind chills will continue to be below zero through the night in
the north and eventually will get there through the entire area.
Some portions of the I-64 corridor may touch -10 again, but winds
are expected to drop off considerably in that region, so it may
just be cold with actual temperatures dropping to near zero. Will
let the day shift take a look at things before deciding whether
another advisory is warranted for tonight and early Tuesday. Will
issue another SPS to address the extent of the cold conditions
today through Wednesday morning.
Should see good coverage of mid-cloud as the primary large-scale
trough moves through the region Tuesday. With the main low-level
cold pool overhead during the day temperatures will only warm
into the teens. For Tuesday night, the GFS is the slowest to
develop a pressure gradient over the region, and really keeps
winds light or calm through the night. The NAM and ECMWF are more
aggressive with the return of southerly winds across the area
overnight. Decided to lean toward the GFS, and took lows down to
or a bit below MAV numbers. With sub-zero dewpoints across the
area and highs only in the teens, it may not be that far-fetched
for some at least isolated areas to drop close to zero overnight.
The low-level cold pool pushes east of the area Wednesday, and
decent southwest low-level flow develops. This will allow
temperatures to warm up into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with
portions of southeast Missouri maybe actually reaching the
freezing mark.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
By the start of the extended forecast period, the ECMWF/GFS ensemble
means appear to be in reasonable agreement in solutions showing the
wrn U.S. mid/upper trof finally breaking down and eventually being
replaced by a longwave trof. This will put the PAH forecast area
into swrly flow aloft. The smaller scale details are more uncertain,
though at least the 00z GFS/ECMWF operational runs agree fairly well.
Highs are expected to get above freezing through the period.
Early Fri, it appears the PAH forecast area will be in the warm
sector of an approaching sfc low pressure system. "Warm" is
relative, though, as temps and the vertical profile still appear to
be cold enough for snow, and perhaps sleet during the day Fri near
the AR/TN borders. Fri night, a sfc trof of low pressure should
cross our region somewhere in the vicinity, depending on model
solution. Low level warm air advection should keep pcpn liquid for
most of the region, except perhaps the I-64 corridor where
snow/sleet is more probable. An attendant cold front is forecast to
move through the PAH forecast area sometime early Sat, and pcpn may
be snow in the nrn third of the region, transitioning to rain
further south. The latest GFS/ECMWF runs show dry high pressure in
place by Sat night, but the initialization blend still contained
chance PoPs all the way through Sun. This was left in the forecast
at this time because of recent instability in the models. If pcpn
does occur, it may be a wintry mix for roughly the nrn half of the
our region Sat night and Sun.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Northerly
winds at 12-14 knots gusting to 18-24 knots will continue through
00Z, then drop to aob 10 knots for the remainder of the period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
514 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF
22Z. COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PLUNGE EASTWARD ON GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS DURING THE LAST HOUR HAVE
BEEN OVER 30 KTS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WILL STILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.
LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL RUNS BRING RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DESPITE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THROUGH
TUESDAY.
PREV DISC...COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND IS GENERALLY ALONG A CARIBOU/FARMINGTON/CONCORD LINE. WE WILL
SEE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE IT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUING OVER THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH PW VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR STATION 50 YR MINIMUMS.
THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL INHIBIT THE COOLING PROCESSES
SOMEWHAT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -30 F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN EXPECTING LOWS NEAR ZERO WITH WIND
CHILLS AROUND -5 F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW WILL BE COLD WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. WSW WILL BE GUSTY BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THEY WILL BE
THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
INTO THE TEENS SOUTH IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AIRMASS WILL
HAVE MODERATED SLIGHTLY BUT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
QUITE AS COLD ACROSS THE NORTH. STILL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAN L/WV TROF POSITION OVER THE GT LAKES WILL BE VERY SLOWLY
RETROGRADING LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS IN
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A MORE
ZONAL WSWLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH ONLY MINOR S/WVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. THE DEEP
ARCTIC AMS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA WILL RETREAT AND REMAIN OVER
CANADA. WITH THIS PATTERN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED.
STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND MODEL GUID FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND REMAIN GUSTY WELL AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXCEPT
PSBLY MVFR IN SCT SNW SHWRS THU NIGHT OR FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS. THE
OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS AND OUTER
WATERS.
LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS. THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE E ALLOWING INCREASING S SW FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WITH
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. A COLD FNT MOVES THRU FRIDAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING AT SCA LEVELS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MEZ007>009.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ012-013.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR NHZ001>003.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NHZ004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1235 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE TODAY AND DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1225L: STRONG WAA AHEAD OF LOW PASSING JUST NW OF THE AREA
HAS PUSHED MILD ABV FREEZING SFC TEMPS TO A NE-SW LINE FROM KHUL
TO JUST NW OF KBGR... HAVE UPDATED HRLY TEMPS AND WX GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. HAVE ALSO DROPPED THE WNTR WX
ADV FOR ZNS 15>17 AND 11/32 AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABV FREEZING AND
NO LONGER A THREAT OF FZRA...
UPDATE 0930L: SNOW ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ATTM AS SFC LOW
PRES OVR SRN QUEBEC LIFTS NEWRD TOWARD THE AREA... STRONG WAA ON
THE E SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND UP ACROSS OUR AREA RESULTING IN BIG
TEMP DIFFS W/ TEMPS RANGING FROM JUST BLO ZERO FAR N TO THE LOWER
40S ON THE COAST. GETTING SOME COLD AIR DAMMING INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COAST AND THIS LEADING TO SOME PATCHY LGT FZRA BEING RPTD AT
KBGR LAST HR. HAVE UPDATE OUR GRIDS TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF
SOME LGT FZRA INTERIOR DOWNEAST THRU OUR CENTRAL ZNS TIL AROUND
NOON AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED
TRENDS. ANY ICE ACCUMS SHOULD BE LGT (<.05) BUT WILL ISSUE AN ADV
NONETHELESS FOR ZNS 15>17 AND 11/31/32.
7AM UPDATE...
REDUCED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON WARM ADVECTION. GOOD BANDING STILL APPEARS TO BE
LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING IN NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A
BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALL IN NORTHERN ZONES AS IT CROSSES.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC
WILL BRING A CLIPPER TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATE A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER DAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL FEATURE
OVERRUNNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AS A POWERFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER WITH A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 80 KT WINDS NEAR H850 BY
MIDDAY. THIS LLJ WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM SUBZERO READINGS IN
THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S AS FAR NORTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET.
IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER OF MAINE. UPSLOPE FACTORS
WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW IN ZONE 10 AND GREENVILLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MONTICELLO
AND MARS HILL. AM FAVORING THE REGIONAL GEMS AND NAM...AS WELL AS
THE HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEV ELOPEMENT IN NE MAINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BANDING STRETCHING FROM NE AROOSTOOK
TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE
ENTRANCE AREA OF A 170 KT UPPER JET WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SNOW RATES MAY REACH OVER AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BANDING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE EVENT ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSHOT OF ALL
THIS IS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 1 THROUGH 6 AND ZONE 10 INTO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN NE AROOSTOOK.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE 31 IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND ZONE 11 IN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR INCLUSION TO THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ZONE 2 APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS BANGOR...THE OVERRUNNING SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD EQUATE
TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON THEIR
WAY TO THE UPPER 30S
A NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 RANGE
NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOW SINGLE DIGITS
BY DAYBREAK DOWN EAST.&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THE END OF JANUARY. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN TUE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR WED EVENING...BUT
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE
THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION THU MORNING AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE MERCURY
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU PM. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA FRI WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
IS SEASONABLE FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S NORTH AND M/U 20S DOWNEAST.
THE MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS A WEAK WAVE THAT
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE CANADIAN AND
LATEST 00Z/27TH ECMWF HAVE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN ONLY HAS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FROM ITS
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR THIS MORNING...LIFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL WITH VIS
IN SNOW DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 50KT AT FL020...BECOMING
SW LATER IN THE DAY. VFR RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT EXCEPT
POSSIBLY FVE DUE TO MVFR CIGS.
SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRI. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...MAINLY LATE WED IN ISO
-SHSN AND AGAIN FRI AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISO TO
SCT -SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SEAS
REACHING AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACE BY AN SCA
THIS EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE IN WEST FLOW THAT WILL
TURN MORE SW TUE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SUB ADVISORY
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING OVER THE WATERS THU.
ANOTHER SCA LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001>006-010-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/CB
MARINE...KHW/MCW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EDGE OF EXPANSIVE POLAR
VORTEX CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR OR SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. CORE OF THE
COLDEST ARCTIC AIR MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C. WITH BEST FORCING ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE
NOW EAST OF THE CWA...LES BANDS ON RADAR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE
GENERALLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND BECOME MORE SPACED APART DUE TO
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR UPSTREAM.
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE
ERN SHORELINE PRODUCING OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. WIND CHILLS CONTINUE IN THE -23 TO -30F RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS TO FALL TO THE -30F TO -35F RANGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK WESTERLY BY LATE EVENING...FOCUSING LES
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE ERN SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION COULD
ENHANCED LES TONIGHT OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE AREAS WHERE LES ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EAST AND INTO TUE MORNING OVER THE
KEWEENAW. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE AND LACK OF A DGZ.
HOWEVER...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING VSBY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WHERE LES IS OCCURRING.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD EXPECT
GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE BECAUSE A STEADY WIND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED MORE OVER THE AREA
INSTEAD OF OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN
THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT THAT WON`T BE THE CASE TONIGHT.
OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
ALONG THE WRN INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL TO -30 TO -45F OVER MUCH OF AREA AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL WARRANT CONTINUED WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FAR EAST CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR.
WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK WEST OR WSW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LES
OFFSHORE OF THE ERN SHORELINE AREAS BY EARLY TUE AND GRADUALLY PUSH
LES INTO MAINLY KEWEENAW COUNTY OVER THE NW BY TUE AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR HIGHS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY
AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEN...THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT
OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND
LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL
THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SNOW BELTS TO
START TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. BUT AS THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE DETRIMENTAL AFFECTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH 875MB TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND -24C...THE WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER WESTERLY
WINDS WILL END UP LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE
LAKE EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH...A FAIRLY NICE BUT COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER MOVING
EAST THROUGH ONTARIO) TO SWEEP ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL SINK...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD/FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ...SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW
RATIOS TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE IF SNOW
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A LIGHT DUSTING TO AN INCH IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P.
AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -17C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS FOR THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE
EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE
12Z GFS FAILS TO SHOW A LOW. WAS HOPING THAT EACH MODELS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD LEAD TO SOME SUPPORT IN EITHER
DIRECTION...BUT THEY ALL WERE AROUND 50/50 ON WHETHER A LOW WILL
OCCUR. THUS...WILL FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND BELTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY WRLY WIND FLOW OR SPECIFICALLY
KCMX. HOWEVER...GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL STILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO MVFR AT KSAW AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
KIWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT KCMX...EXPECT GENERALLY PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE W THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...RESULTING IN MORE VIS
RESTRICTION FROM BLSN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST
WED MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES TO
40 KTS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TO 35 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW GALES TO 35 KT
WED NIGHT WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THU INTO FRI MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMES BAY. CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS NOW
SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -31C
850MB TEMPS INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -33C OVER FAR NE
MN. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...MESOLOW...MDT/HVY LES
AND STRONG WINDS MOVED ONSHORE IN ALGER COUNTY LAST NIGHT AS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ALGER
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SHIFTING STEADILY E AS WINDS
SLOWLY BACK. THESE MAIN LES BANDS ARE NOW EAST OF MUNISING. THERE
HASN`T BEEN MUCH LES WEST OF THESE HEAVIER LES BANDS OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN ALLOWED THE BROKEN
ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SOLIDIFY. HOWEVER...IN
THE LAST HR OR TWO...KMQT RADAR IS SHOWING LES BANDS BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE AND STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...A
SIGN THAT ICE MAY BE OPENING UP AGAIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T TAKE MUCH OPEN WATER TO GET LES GOING...
ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. OUT W...KCMX/KIWD HAVE HAD
VIS GENERALLY BTWN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM IN -SHSN/BLSN OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE THRU NE MN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN HEAVIER LES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS RIBBON OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A NOTABLE
DECLINE IN LES INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE HEAVIER LES EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE VERY COLD AIR
KEEPING THE COLUMN FREE OF THE DGZ. WILL ALLOW ONGOING HEADLINES
PERTAINING TO LES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOME AND HEAVIER LES
DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS E. THAT SAID...BLSN WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM
DURING THE AFTN IN OPEN AREAS. ADDED LES ADVY TO LUCE COUNTY AS
BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES AND VERY POOR VIS SHIFT ACROSS THE COUNTY...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE LES/BLSN WILL BECOME CONFINED MAINLY
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY. OUT
W...LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.
CERTAINLY SHSN...SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
AS THIS MORNING.
WIND CHILLS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE AS OF 5 AM EST OVER
MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI...AND A FEW SPOTS OUT W ARE NEARING
-35F NOW. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS AT MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL TO OR BLO -35F DURING THE MORNING
HRS.
WINDS BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT...SHIFTING LES TO BE CONFINED MORE TO NW
UPPER MI...KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE THE USUAL CONVERGENCE
INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION...BUT IT`S A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP DUE TO AREAS OF ICE
ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ALTERING THE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. IN ANY
EVENT...DID HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
SHIFTING N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DIDN`T
GO CRAZY WITH LOW TEMPS AS A STEADY WIND WILL BE BLOWING. IF HIGH
PRES WAS OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS
WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT
THAT`S NOT THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE
-10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL
FALL TO -30 TO -45F. ON A SIDE NOTE...NAM MOS SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY COLD
MINS TONIGHT (-30F AT KSAW/-23F AT KCMX/-16F AT KP59 FOR
EXAMPLE)...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE MODEL INCORRECTLY DEPICTING WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AS TOTALLY ICE COVERED. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY
AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEN...THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT
OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND
LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL
THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SNOW BELTS TO
START TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. BUT AS THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE DETRIMENTAL AFFECTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH 875MB TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND -24C...THE WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER WESTERLY
WINDS WILL END UP LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE
LAKE EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH...A FAIRLY NICE BUT COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER MOVING
EAST THROUGH ONTARIO) TO SWEEP ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL SINK...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD/FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ...SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW
RATIOS TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE IF SNOW
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A LIGHT DUSTING TO AN INCH IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P.
AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -17C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS FOR THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE
EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE
12Z GFS FAILS TO SHOW A LOW. WAS HOPING THAT EACH MODELS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD LEAD TO SOME SUPPORT IN EITHER
DIRECTION...BUT THEY ALL WERE AROUND 50/50 ON WHETHER A LOW WILL
OCCUR. THUS...WILL FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND BELTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY WRLY WIND FLOW OR SPECIFICALLY
KCMX. HOWEVER...GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL STILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO MVFR AT KSAW AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
KIWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT KCMX...EXPECT GENERALLY PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE W THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...RESULTING IN MORE VIS
RESTRICTION FROM BLSN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES OF
35-45KTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINLING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...ANOTHE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN HUDSON BAY...AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OF EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
107 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMES BAY. CORE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS NOW
SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -31C
850MB TEMPS INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS -33C OVER FAR NE
MN. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...MESOLOW...MDT/HVY LES
AND STRONG WINDS MOVED ONSHORE IN ALGER COUNTY LAST NIGHT AS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO ALGER
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SHIFTING STEADILY E AS WINDS
SLOWLY BACK. THESE MAIN LES BANDS ARE NOW EAST OF MUNISING. THERE
HASN`T BEEN MUCH LES WEST OF THESE HEAVIER LES BANDS OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS THE PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN ALLOWED THE BROKEN
ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SOLIDIFY. HOWEVER...IN
THE LAST HR OR TWO...KMQT RADAR IS SHOWING LES BANDS BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE AND STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WRN ALGER COUNTY...A
SIGN THAT ICE MAY BE OPENING UP AGAIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T TAKE MUCH OPEN WATER TO GET LES GOING...
ESPECIALLY WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXTREME. OUT W...KCMX/KIWD HAVE HAD
VIS GENERALLY BTWN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM IN -SHSN/BLSN OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE THRU NE MN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN HEAVIER LES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS RIBBON OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A NOTABLE
DECLINE IN LES INTENSITY. EVEN WITH THE HEAVIER LES EARLY THIS
MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE VERY COLD AIR
KEEPING THE COLUMN FREE OF THE DGZ. WILL ALLOW ONGOING HEADLINES
PERTAINING TO LES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOME AND HEAVIER LES
DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS E. THAT SAID...BLSN WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM
DURING THE AFTN IN OPEN AREAS. ADDED LES ADVY TO LUCE COUNTY AS
BANDS OF MDT/HVY LES AND VERY POOR VIS SHIFT ACROSS THE COUNTY...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE LES/BLSN WILL BECOME CONFINED MAINLY
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY. OUT
W...LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.
CERTAINLY SHSN...SOME BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
AS THIS MORNING.
WIND CHILLS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE AS OF 5 AM EST OVER
MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI...AND A FEW SPOTS OUT W ARE NEARING
-35F NOW. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS AT MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL TO OR BLO -35F DURING THE MORNING
HRS.
WINDS BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT...SHIFTING LES TO BE CONFINED MORE TO NW
UPPER MI...KEWEENAW IN PARTICULAR...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE THE USUAL CONVERGENCE
INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION...BUT IT`S A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP DUE TO AREAS OF ICE
ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ALTERING THE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. IN ANY
EVENT...DID HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
SHIFTING N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...DIDN`T
GO CRAZY WITH LOW TEMPS AS A STEADY WIND WILL BE BLOWING. IF HIGH
PRES WAS OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS
WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT
THAT`S NOT THE CASE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE
-10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILLS WILL
FALL TO -30 TO -45F. ON A SIDE NOTE...NAM MOS SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY COLD
MINS TONIGHT (-30F AT KSAW/-23F AT KCMX/-16F AT KP59 FOR
EXAMPLE)...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE MODEL INCORRECTLY DEPICTING WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AS TOTALLY ICE COVERED. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
ICE COVER...OR THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER LIKELY BEING CALCULATED IN
SOME OF THE FCST MODELS IS HAVING AN IMPACT. RECENT HIGH WINDS HAVE
BROKEN UP MUCH OF THE ICE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
IMPACTED...AS WELL AS THE SMALL-SCALE MODELS THAT USE THE NAM AS A
BASELINE. SKY COVER...QPF...AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW IN
ONSHORE WIND SCENARIOS...AND WINDS COULD BE TOO LOW OR TOO STRONG.
THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FCST PROCESS. RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MORE HAND EDITING AS NEEDED TO FIT THE
CONCEPTUAL MODELS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST
NATIONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 20S. WE WILL NOT BE REACHING NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TO START OUT TUESDAY...WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
W-SW WINDS 10-15MPH AND TEMPS AROUND -10 TO -20F WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30 TO NEAR 45 BELOW ZERO RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W HALF...FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CURRENT WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. WILL HOWEVER NEED NEW HEADLINES
FOR ALGER/N SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS CURRENT SNOW HEADLINES EXPIRE LATER
TODAY. FOR TUESDAY UPPER MI WILL REMAIN LOCKED BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER S HUDSON BAY THROUGH N QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
IN OUR STEADY W-NW FLOW OF COLD AIR...BEFORE SW WINDS SHIFT ANY
LINGERING LES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RISING FROM AN AVERAGE -25C TO -10C
BY 00Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS 15-20F.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY NOTHING
MORE THAN A 3-4HR DIFFERENCE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER TO
TURN THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND
BRING BACK LES. ASSUMING THAT THE STRONG WINDS OF 20-30KTS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TOO MUCH ICE FROM FORMING OVER THE
LAKE...CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE LES POTENTIAL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND EAST
OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DGZ EVEN MAKES A BRIEF
APPEARANCE IN THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS...AND WILL LIKELY PLAY A
ROLL IN HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST MOISTURE IS STILL JUST ABOVE THE DGZ.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY WRLY WIND FLOW OR SPECIFICALLY
KCMX. HOWEVER...GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL STILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO MVFR AT KSAW AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
KIWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT KCMX...EXPECT GENERALLY PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE W THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...RESULTING IN MORE VIS
RESTRICTION FROM BLSN. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES OF
35-45KTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINLING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...ANOTHE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND EASTERN HUDSON BAY...AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A LOW TO SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE OF EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-
266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
313 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBS...AND WEBCAMS SHOW A BAND
OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM ERN MT THROUGH NERN WY INTO
SWRN SD. THIS BAND WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL
AS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET THAT WAS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SWRN CWA OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE NOT GONE TOO LOW WITH MIN TEMPS
THERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BE RISING LATE TNGT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE RAP MODEL INDICATE
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER BLKHLS OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT
WARRANTED GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES AS WELL AS PWAT NEAR 0.05
INCHES.
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON TUESDAY AS SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING ENSUES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER NERN WY IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA WITH
INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
ALL OF THE CWA. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
THAT AREA...ROUGHLY A 5-MB DIFFERENCE FROM KECS TO KSPF. WIND SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED...BUT MAY NEED TO DO SO EVEN MORE IN LATER
SHIFTS. IT ALSO WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH PARTS OF THE NERN
FOOTHILLS STAYING IN THE 20S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA FROM LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION FOR A BRIEF TIME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT THIS POINT...UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OR
SO...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OVER NORTHEASTERN WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW....THOUGH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ALSO LOOK TO BE LIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A
BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT STILL IN THE RANGE OF 15 KNOTS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN ENTERS CENTRAL
MEXICO. FOR LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INCLUDING THE AUSTIN
METRO AREA. DUE TO THE LOW POP OF 10 PERCENT...WILL NOT MENTION IT
FOR KAUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOVE MENTIONED NEARS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...LOW POPS REMAIN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND
MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR IS BEING FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE TODAY
WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO 35 KT BY THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ARCTIC FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF
AUS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SAT BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS. GUSTS TO OVER 30 KT WILL SOON FOLLOW THE FROPA. MODELS ARE
NOT DEVELOPING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT SO
HAVE INCLUDED MAINLY CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF FORECAST. HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW SOME HIGHER
RH VALUES AROUND 850MB LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE
BROUGHT IN SOME DECKS AT THIS LEVEL BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY MVFR
CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST HAS LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AROUND THE AUS
AREA...BUT WITH POP SO LOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE AUS TAF AT
THIS TIME. SAME REASONING GOES WITH SAT/SSF LATER ON TUE WITH LOW
CHANCE POP FOR -FZRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THREE HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 6MB HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ONGOING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...
CAN/T RULE OUT GUSTY CONDITIONS WEST OF I-35 AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM12 AND RUC13 TRENDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD TONIGHT...BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALONG WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY BRING A ROUND OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND CALL FOR A MIXTURE OF SLEET
AND SNOW. ANY SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY
LIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO. THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
ROCKSPRINGS TO CUERO LINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AND SLEET
REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY... WHILE A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM
SAN ANTONIO NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IS LOW...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BUT GIVEN A NARROW REGION OF ORGANIZED LIFT...WE/LL ALSO MENTION
SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA COULD SEE
STRONGER LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND BOOSTED QPF A LITTLE.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR TUESDAY EVENING.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND COASTAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCREASE... A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS STILL IN
QUESTION AND WE/LL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 32 36 26 45 30 / 20 20 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 30 36 22 43 25 / 20 20 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 31 35 22 42 25 / 10 30 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 27 36 22 44 29 / 20 20 10 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 37 46 30 49 34 / 10 10 10 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 28 35 23 43 28 / 20 20 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 33 39 24 48 27 / 10 20 20 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 31 35 22 43 25 / 10 20 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 32 34 26 42 31 / 10 40 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 35 37 27 45 31 / 10 20 20 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 35 38 27 45 30 / 10 20 20 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30