Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/26/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH STALLED AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
GENERALLY TREATED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST RIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOSING SOME OF THAT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT
ENHANCEMENT TO THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THAT TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY SLOWLY RELAX TO NORMAL DIURNAL
TRENDS BY TOMORROW.
THAT SNEAKY LITTLE TROPICALLY INFLUENCED IMPULSE ROTATING UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST NOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN BAJA WITH SOME MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT JUST AHEAD OF IT INTO NORTHERN SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THE .44 PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING
WILL PUSH INTO THE .55 RANGE THIS EVENING...MAYBE A TOUCH HIGHER
OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODEL LAYERED MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
BRIEFLY DEEPEN THE MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS FOR BORDER
AREAS. WEAK ECHOES FILLING IN ON THE RADAR AS THIS OCCURS BUT
NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND YET. LATEST HRRR 3KM HAS LIGHT SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND 6-7PM WITH VIRGA AND
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TUCSON AREA AROUND
10-11PM. STILL LOOKING FOR UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE (TRACE
- .03) IN SOUTHERN AREAS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE (LIKE TUCSON).
SOME CLEARING SATURDAY FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...HELPED BY A
SECONDARY WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WRAPPING A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA. NOT MUCH LEFT OF THE COOLER AIR THAT
WORKED INTO EASTERN AREAS FROM THE EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR MANY
AREAS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES UNTIL SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A
BROADER SCALED SPLIT MEAN TROUGH POSITION THROUGH THE CONUS BUCKLING
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE (THE PORTION PROTECTING US) AROUND NEXT
WEEKEND TO START FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z. SCT-BKN120 OVC200...AFT 25/06Z
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL AND OVC CLOUDS AOA 15K FT AGL...THEN
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL
AFTER 25/18Z. ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND OF 10-16 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS UNTIL 25/03Z. SURFACE WIND DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 25/08Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL EASE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY. WINDS FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD WILL BE DIURNAL IN DIRECTION WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
WESTERLIES BEING A BIT STRONGER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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MEYER/CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COOLER TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF THINGS GOING ON THIS MORNING. FIRST IS THE
DECAYING AND STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN AREAS THIS
MORNING WITH COOLER AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM NEW MEXICO. GUSTY
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. SO FAR THE FORECAST HANDLES THIS PRETTY WELL WITH BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY IN SPOTS BUT BELOW ANY ADVISORY LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A TREND OUT WEST BUT THE 6-10
DEGREES OF COOLING IN EASTERN AREAS SEEMS GOOD AS LONG AS THINGS
DON`T WASH OUT TOO MUCH. TUCSON IN BETWEEN...STILL SEEMS LIKE A
DECENT BET TO KNOCK 1-4 DEGREES OFF OF YESTERDAY`S LOWER 70S AT TIA.
SECONDLY...WE HAVE A WEAK TROPICALLY INFLUENCED IMPULSE ROTATING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA
LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODEL LAYERED MOISTURE
FIELDS CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY DEEPEN THE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BORDER TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR 3KM HAS LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND 01Z WITH VIRGA AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS THE GREEN VALLEY AREA AROUND 03Z. DON`T
EXPECT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWARD PROGRESS THAN MAYBE TUCSON AND THE
CATALINAS SO WE`LL KEEP THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS FAR NORTH AS THE
GREATER TUCSON AREA TONIGHT. AFTER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THESE TRENDS WELL. STILL LOOKING FOR UP TO A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE (TRACE - .02) IN SOUTHERN AREAS AND
MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE (LIKE TUCSON). I GUESS
ANY PRECIP IS WORTH MENTIONING WHEN YOU HAVE BEEN DRY FOR OVER A
MONTH DURING YOUR SECONDARY WET SEASON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THIS MORNING. LATEST MODELS SHOWED THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING BY SATURDAY FOR LESS WIND. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY...DAYTIME READINGS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK UNDER THE DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8K-12K FT AGL AND OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K
FT AGL THRU 25/12Z...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AFTER 25/18Z. ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND OF
12-20 KTS AND GUSTS OF 22-30 KTS UNTIL 24/23Z. SURFACE WIND
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 25/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. SOME WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER
THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. AFTER
TODAY...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. A
FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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MEYER/CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...OVERALL...CURRENT FORECASTS ON TRACK. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG FOOTHILLS AND HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME... HIGHEST GUSTS WERE
AROUND 30 MPH. 1500M PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM GRAND JUNCTION TO
DENVER HAS INCREASED TO 10.36 MB...UP FROM 9.17 MB AT 15Z. WEAK
MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION AND MOUNTAIN WAVE CREATING THE GUSTY WINDS.
MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN INTO THE EVENING...SO THE
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST RAP SPATIAL CROSS SECTION
INDICATING CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW OF AROUND 25 KTS...SO ANY THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS IS LOW. RAP AND HRRR SHOW GUST POTENTIAL OF 40-45 KTS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SO SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN WIND PRONE
AREAS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF BLOWING
SNOW IN OPEN AREAS WITH THE RECENT SNOW FROM YESTERDAY. FOR NOW
WILL JUST COVER IN NOWCASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME MIXING AND
INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. THERE MAY BE SOME BLOWING SNOW THERE AS
WELL...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST WITH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY TODAY...TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE 40S ALONG AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH 30S MOST AREAS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE PLAINS. LAGGING BEHIND ARE LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS FROM GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
TO MORE OF A WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY 19Z. POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20
KTS WITH PERHAPS 30 KTS AT KBJC. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUGGESTING
LIGHTER WINDS BY 20Z AT KDEN AND KAPA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING EXPECTED...NOT SURE ABOUT THE
SOUTHEASTERLIES OCCURRING EVEN WITH THE SNOW COVER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF THE CURRENT TAFS...AND MONITOR FOR ANY WIND SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...STILL LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12000 FEET
AGL. CEILINGS AS LOW AS 6000 FEET AGL LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS
POINT. DRAINAGE TO DEVELOP BY 02Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2014/
SHORT TERM...WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITH READINGS RISING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE KICKED IN. THERE IS A MEAN STATE
CRITICAL LAYER IN PLACE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF
GUSTY MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS IN AND RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT IS ONLY ABOUT 25-30 KTS
SO DONT SEE ANY HIGH WIND THREAT AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE BOOSTED
WIND FORECAST A LITTLE MORE. THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY POWDERY SNOW
FROM YESTERDAY COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN OPEN AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 93 AND POINTS CLOSER
TO THE WYOMING BORDER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO SNOW COVER...SHALLOW
STRONG INVERSIONS...AND AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS
TIME... EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SCOUR OUT WITH INCREASING WINDS
DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE A CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IN LOW LYING AREAS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE GREELEY-FORT
MORGAN CORRIDOR AND THEN DOWN INTO LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE NOT SURE
IF INVERSIONS WILL BREAK WITH SNOW COVER.
ALSO EXPECT A DECENT WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SPILLING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. MAY EVEN SEE A LITTLE
VIRGA CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AND A RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW ANY GUSTY WINDS TO DECREASE IN THE
EVENING.
LONG TERM...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
AS WARM AIR UNDER THE LARGE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
STATE. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY...BUT NOT QUITE
AS WARM AS SATURDAY. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE DROPPING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS YIELDING TO AN
ARCTIC INTRUSION DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
TRANSITIONAL AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND COLD AIR BEGINS POURING INTO THE STATE. ALOFT...STRONG
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FRONTOGENESIS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE STRENGTHENING COLD
FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A LARGE BAND OF
SNOWFALL THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THEN THE BIG STORY ON MONDAY IS GOING TO BE THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS OR LOWER 20S AS THE SNOWFALL CONTINUES. TUESDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD DAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST
FLOW REMAINS OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STILL BE OVER
THE STATE...BUT MAY BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING THE
BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN. EACH OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION
THROUGH TUESDAY.
LESS AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES
SEEM THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS GOING TO BE UNDERCUT BY SOME ZONAL
FLOW OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW PRODUCTION
GOING WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PLAINS LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER WITH MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
AROUND CLIMATOLOGY...IF NOT A LITTLE WARMER.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. ENHANCED
DRAINAGE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY
TRANSITION MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AT KDEN AND KAPA BY 18Z-20Z. KBJC
COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS. MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK ABOVE 12000 FEET EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL CEILINGS AS
LOW AS 6000 FT AGL COULD OCCUR JUST EAST OF KDEN FROM 17Z-03Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1157 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
258 PM CST
SYNOPSIS...WINTER REALLY LOVES THE MIDWEST THIS YEAR. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH BITTER COLD EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FOR HEADLINES...
EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH
15Z/9AM CST SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LINGERING SNOW AND CONTINUED
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY OTHER HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE. ANOTHER
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ADVISORY...LIKE THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
BE FOR SNOW...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPS.
IN ADDITION...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW MONDAY NIGHT
LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH MIN WIND CHILLS LESS THAN -30F.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER HUDSON BAY WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH ST. LOUIS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
IS ALSO OVER HUDSON BAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED OUT OVER THE
GULF COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS/WARM FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND MORE MOIST AIR. HAVE A FEW ECHOES
ON RADAR...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS ARE AND LACK OF SURFACE
OBS REPORTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN SNOW FOR TODAY/TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY OVER NW WI AND WILL
SPREAD OVER NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING SO LEFT THE ADJUSTMENTS I MADE
THIS MORNING AS IS. STEADY SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE CWA BY
02Z/8PM CST. FORCING WILL BE FROM THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS/COLD
FRONT..AND IT EXTENDS UP THROUGH 300MB THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS 4500-5000 FT DEEP THIS EVENING SO A STEADY
SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY
MID MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA. ALL IN
ALL LOOKING AT 1 TO 3 INCHES. SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER NW
INDIANA...MAY SEE UP TO 4 INCHES. SNOW ENDS FROM NW TO SE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE SO
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z.
THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS AND RESULTANT
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. GUSTS UP TO 30KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WILL CREATE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. WE HAVE
ALREADY HEARD OF ROADS CLOSED OR SHUT DOWN TO ONE LANE ACROSS THE
CWA. PLEASE TAKE CAUTION ESPECIALLY AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS
EVENING IF YOU ARE TRAVELING!
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
QUICKLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS
SNOW TO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PASSES
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN IL SUNDAY BEFORE CONTINUING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON
ON SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE AND FORCING TAPERING OFF AFTER NOON. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SECONDARY BAND OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE EXCITED ABOUT THIS SCENARIO THAN
THE ECMWF WHICH IS WHY POPS ARE CAPPED IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE.
GIVEN THIS IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM...WENT WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER/POWDERY
SNOW RATIO. LOOKING AT IN GENERAL 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAVE NO FEAR THEY RETURN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MAX GUSTS AROUND
30KT ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.
FOR TEMPS...THE FIRST TASTE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT VARYING FROM -5 TO +5F ACROSS THE CWA. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20F AND 0F. THE LOWS
WEAK WARM FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT IN
GENERAL SUNDAY LOOKS WARMER. MAY EVEN SEE TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL IL. HOWEVER THE HAMMER FALLS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AS 925MB TEMPS FALL FROM 0C TO -20C. AS SUCH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE -1 TO -10F WITH MIN WIND CHILLS OF
-20F TO -35F. A WIND CHILL HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
COLD. BITTERLY COLD. 925MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -20C THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVERHEAD. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE CWA MID
WEEK. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN +1F AND -10F.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST WITH MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN
-30F AND -45F. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIP ALONG THE LOWS COLD FRONT THURSDAY THAN THE GFS...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE. OTHERWISE THE EXTENDED
LOOKS WARMER WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY AND IN THE
20S THURSDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SNOW BECOMING MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND ENDING PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...WITH TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITY.
* WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
* SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE INTO
THIS MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SWING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WHICH WILL
TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO BEHIND IT WILL EXIST SOME SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH STILL
MAY BRING TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITY. GUSTS SHOULD RE-INCREASE TO
AROUND 30 KT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON THANKS TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS CERTAINLY WILL
LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS...BUT WHETHER THAT IS
EXPERIENCED AT EACH AIRFIELD WILL DEPEND ON LOCAL CHARACTERISTICS.
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SURGE...SO CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO SCATTERED AT MOST.
GOING FORWARD INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND EVENTUALLY REACH THAT DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL
COME DOWN TONIGHT...BUT THEN RE-INCREASE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
BRING SNOW TO TAF SITES. THIS LOOKS TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT TO AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY FOR CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OR SO OF FAIRLY GOOD SNOWFALL RATES /ONE INCH
PER HOUR PLUS/ DURING SUNDAY MORNING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN SNOW END TIME AND VISIBILITY DURING SNOW THROUGH
DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT.
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
* WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW IT WILL IMPACT VISIBILITY.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY RESULTING
IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IFR/MVFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW AND RESULTING MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
MTF/RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
404 PM CST
A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LAKE...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF...WOULD EXPECT THESE
HIGHER WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WHILE GALES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE A
DIMINISHING TREND WITH A LULL IN THE GALE ACTIVITY FOR A TIME
TONIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE...ANTICIPATE IT ONLY TO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE GALES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN. GALES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE ENTIRE LAKE ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FIRST ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WINDS TO THEN
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
PM SATURDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1116 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 840 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
Snow continues to slowly increase in coverage over parts of
northwest into west central Illinois this evening as a frontal
boundary...currently over central Iowa...shifts east into our
area late tonight. The snow reports out to our northwest were
increasing with vsbys as low as 1 1/2sm in northeast and east
central Iowa. Some of the high res model sounding data indicate
enough warm air advecting northeast into far southwest Illinois
overnight where we may see a wintry mix of precip including
rain/freezing rain and snow. But still enough spread in the
ensemble members in this area to hold off making any significant
changes to the grids with respect to precip type overnight, but
that will have to be watched.
Quick look at the 00z NAM-WRF showing a trend closer to what the
current GFS model suggests with the better threat for accumulating
snows over the northeast half of the forecast area...roughly
around 1 inch with some isolated 2 inch reports possible east of
I-57. Gradient remains tight across central Illinois so even though
the snow accumulations will be minor, any snowfall with the gusty
winds will produce areas of blowing snow creating slippery travel
conditions overnight.
WRF ensembles suggest a quick exit to the snow...roughly in the
07z-10z time frame...which the current HRRR is latching on to. For
now, will hold on to the current idea of ending the snow from
northwest to southeast Saturday morning with actually a lull in
the precip chances thru the remainder of the day Saturday before
another clipper starts to affect our area after midnight Sat
night/Sun morning.
We have seen our overnight lows reached early this evening as the
persistent south to southwest low level flow will keep temps
steady or slowly rising overnight as the trof/wind shift line out
to our west tracks thru our area in the morning. Readings over far
west central Illinois may hover around 35 for several hours this
evening into the early morning hours before the boundary shifts
thru the area towards dawn.
Other than the usual tweaking of hourly temperatures in the grids
for this evening, the current ZFP has a good handle on the weather
trends this evening, so will not be needing an update at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1110 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
Snow has overspread much of the area this evening and should
continue through about 10z before pushing off to our east. MVFR
cigs with local IFR cigs were common in areas that have seen
a steadier snowfall. Upstream obs suggest mainly MVFR conditions
prevailing with tempo IFR in some of the heavier bursts of snow.
Once the snow ends towards dawn on Saturday, latest short term
models suggest a return to VFR conditons for the remainder of
Saturday. As the surface trof/wind shift moves across the area
from northwest to southeast in the 08z-11z time frame, models
suggest there may be a period of MVFR-IFR cigs for a time before
the trof shifts away from the area. Surface winds ahead of the
trof will be southwest at 15 to 25 kts...with occasional gusts
near 30 kts...then winds will turn into the northwest as the
trof moves off to our east late tonight into the predawn hours
of Saturday. Gusty winds out of the northwest are expected during
the day on Saturday with prevailing winds of 15 to 25 kts common
over the TAF sites, with occasional gusts up to 35 kts possible
during the afternoon with winds quickly diminishing after 00z.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 221 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
Plenty of winter-weather challenges with this forecast
package...including chances for accumulating snow tonight and
again Saturday night, followed by bitterly cold conditions early
next week.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday
Strong southerly winds have developed across central Illinois this
afternoon in response to a tightening gradient between high
pressure centered over the Gulf Coast and an approaching cold
front dropping into the Dakotas. Winds will remain strong and
gusty this evening, with forecast soundings and numeric guidance
suggesting continued gusts to between 30 and 35mph. Thanks to the
steady southerly flow and increasing cloud cover, low temperatures
for tonight will be achieved early this evening followed by rising
temps overnight. As low pressure tracks eastward across Hudson
Bay, a trailing cold front will sweep into the area tonight.
Models are in agreement that a period of light snow will accompany
the front, although with only weak upper support and limited
moisture, accumulations will remain light. Most locations will
pick up 1 inch of snow or less tonight, with locations north of
the I-74 corridor perhaps measuring as much as 1 to 2 inches.
Aside from the falling snow, strong winds will continue through
the night causing considerable blowing snow and reduced
visibilities. While the light precipitation will be quick to exit
toward dawn, brisk northwesterly winds gusting over 30 mph behind
the departing front will persist into Saturday. As a result, have
opted to extend the Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM Saturday.
Depending on how much snow falls overnight and how much
blowing/drifting occurs, the advisory may even need to be extended
further into Saturday.
After a brief lull during the day Saturday, the next clipper
system will quickly approach from the northwest by Saturday night.
Model trends have slowed this system just a bit, so have removed
POPs during the evening. Models are still not in perfect agreement
regarding the exact track of the upper wave, with the GFS
remaining further south than the NAM. Consensus tracks the 500mb
vort max along/near the I-80 corridor, which would generally keep
the heaviest snow just north of the KILX CWA late Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Given strong upper dynamics and track across
north-central Illinois, have increased POPs with this system. Will
carry categorical POPs along/north of I-74 tapering down to just
low chance along/south of I-70. Accumulations will once again be
on the light side across much of central Illinois, with most areas
seeing 1 inch or less. Further north, higher totals of 2 to 3
inches will be possible along/north of I-74 depending upon the
exact track of the clipper.
Once this system exits the region, mild/dry weather will be the
rule Sunday afternoon ahead of an Arctic cold front approaching
from the north. Sunday will be the warmest day of the forecast
period, with high temperatures reaching the upper 30s and lower
40s. Lift along cold front will be strong enough to support snow
flurries or perhaps a few snow-showers Sunday evening, followed by
windy and sharply colder conditions overnight. As has been
advertised for several days, a considerable chunk of polar air
will settle southward across much of the eastern CONUS early next
week, resulting in some of the coldest readings thus far this
winter. Numeric guidance is suggesting high temperatures on Monday
remaining in the single digits and lows Monday night plunging to
as low as the teens below zero in many areas. These extremely cold
temperatures combined with brisk northwesterly winds will create
wind-chill values of 25 below to 35 below zero at times from late
Sunday night through Tuesday. Wind chill advisories and/or
warnings will be needed as the time nears.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Friday
Aside from a generally dry frontal passage on Thursday, the
extended will be characterized by dry weather with a gradual
warming trend. After sub-zero temperatures early Wednesday
morning, an increasingly zonal upper flow pattern will allow temps
to warm into the upper 20s and lower 30s by Friday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-041>046-048-053>057-063.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
915 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
258 PM CST
SYNOPSIS...WINTER REALLY LOVES THE MIDWEST THIS YEAR. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH BITTER COLD EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FOR HEADLINES...
EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH
15Z/9AM CST SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LINGERING SNOW AND CONTINUED
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY OTHER HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE. ANOTHER
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ADVISORY...LIKE THE CURRENT ONE...WILL
BE FOR SNOW...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPS.
IN ADDITION...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW MONDAY NIGHT
LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH MIN WIND CHILLS LESS THAN -30F.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER HUDSON BAY WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH ST. LOUIS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
IS ALSO OVER HUDSON BAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED OUT OVER THE
GULF COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS/WARM FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND MORE MOIST AIR. HAVE A FEW ECHOES
ON RADAR...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS ARE AND LACK OF SURFACE
OBS REPORTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN SNOW FOR TODAY/TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY OVER NW WI AND WILL
SPREAD OVER NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING SO LEFT THE ADJUSTMENTS I MADE
THIS MORNING AS IS. STEADY SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE CWA BY
02Z/8PM CST. FORCING WILL BE FROM THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS/COLD
FRONT..AND IT EXTENDS UP THROUGH 300MB THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS 4500-5000 FT DEEP THIS EVENING SO A STEADY
SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY
MID MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA. ALL IN
ALL LOOKING AT 1 TO 3 INCHES. SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER NW
INDIANA...MAY SEE UP TO 4 INCHES. SNOW ENDS FROM NW TO SE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE SO
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z.
THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS AND RESULTANT
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. GUSTS UP TO 30KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WILL CREATE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. WE HAVE
ALREADY HEARD OF ROADS CLOSED OR SHUT DOWN TO ONE LANE ACROSS THE
CWA. PLEASE TAKE CAUTION ESPECIALLY AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS
EVENING IF YOU ARE TRAVELING!
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
QUICKLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS
SNOW TO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PASSES
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN IL SUNDAY BEFORE CONTINUING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON
ON SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE AND FORCING TAPERING OFF AFTER NOON. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SECONDARY BAND OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE EXCITED ABOUT THIS SCENARIO THAN
THE ECMWF WHICH IS WHY POPS ARE CAPPED IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE.
GIVEN THIS IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM...WENT WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER/POWDERY
SNOW RATIO. LOOKING AT IN GENERAL 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAVE NO FEAR THEY RETURN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MAX GUSTS AROUND
30KT ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.
FOR TEMPS...THE FIRST TASTE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT VARYING FROM -5 TO +5F ACROSS THE CWA. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20F AND 0F. THE LOWS
WEAK WARM FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT IN
GENERAL SUNDAY LOOKS WARMER. MAY EVEN SEE TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL IL. HOWEVER THE HAMMER FALLS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AS 925MB TEMPS FALL FROM 0C TO -20C. AS SUCH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE -1 TO -10F WITH MIN WIND CHILLS OF
-20F TO -35F. A WIND CHILL HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
COLD. BITTERLY COLD. 925MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -20C THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVERHEAD. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE CWA MID
WEEK. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN +1F AND -10F.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST WITH MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN
-30F AND -45F. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIP ALONG THE LOWS COLD FRONT THURSDAY THAN THE GFS...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE. OTHERWISE THE EXTENDED
LOOKS WARMER WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY AND IN THE
20S THURSDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT EASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE EVE.
WIND SHIFTS NORTHWEST EARLY SAT MORNING AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT
AGAIN.
* PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...WITH VISIBILITY SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BETWEEN 1-2SM AT TIMES TO BETTER THAN 6SM AT OTHERS.
PERIOD OF MORE SOLID IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE 05-08Z. SNOW ENDS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER TO VFR SATURDAY MORNING.
* GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT SATURDAY. MAY MAINTAIN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH SOME MVFR VSBY IMPACT ESPECIALLY
EARLY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WINDS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST HAVE COMBINED TO TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY...PRODUCING GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WHICH WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AT
ORD/MDW WHILE EASING A BIT TO THE WEST AT RFD. DESPITE GRADUAL
DECREASE EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN GENERALLY 25+ KT FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM 210-220 DEG TO 250-260 DEG AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FROPA 07-09Z AT
RFD AND 08-10Z IN CHICAGO WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST 300-320 DEG...BUT WITH WINDS COMING BACK UP 25-30 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. VERY GRADUAL DECREASE THEN
EXPECTED IN SPEEDS/GUSTS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW...AND VIS/CIG IMPLICATIONS...
STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO ADVECT FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THIS STORM SYSTEM...AS NOTED IN THE OMA 12Z RAOB
FROM THIS MORNING WHICH WAS BONE DRY BELOW ABOUT 600 MB. DESPITE
STRONG DYNAMICS/ASCENT...MOST OF THE LIFT IS GOING INTO LONG
PROCESS OF SATURATION AND CLOUD/PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD
SNOW WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL VORT
DIGGING SOUTH- SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE WITH SLOWER SATURATION OCCURRING...HAVE INDICATED SOME
A GRADUAL MINOR VSBY REDUCTION THROUGH ABOUT 04Z IN TAFS WITH
THE 04-10Z PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR VSBYS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE STRONGEST LIFT IS ABOVE
THE BETTER SNOW GROWTH THERMAL RANGE...AND SOME DRYING BEGINS AT
THE TOP OF THIS LAYER BY 10Z OR SO...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF BEYOND THAT TIME. OF COURSE GUSTY WINDS WILL WORSEN
BLOWING/DRIFTING AND VSBY ISSUES WITH NEW FALLING SNOW. SOME
BLOWING SNOW MAY LINGER SATURDAY MORNING AFTER SNOW ACTUALLY STOPS
FALLING...THOUGH DIFFICULT TO ASSES IMPACT TO VISIBILITY WITH MUCH
DETAIL AT THIS TIME ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CHICAGO TERMINALS.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING AND VSBY/INTENSITY TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR SATURDAY...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN VSBY WITH SOME LINGERING BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORNING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY RESULTING
IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IFR/MVFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW AND RESULTING MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
404 PM CST
A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LAKE...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF...WOULD EXPECT THESE
HIGHER WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WHILE GALES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE A
DIMINISHING TREND WITH A LULL IN THE GALE ACTIVITY FOR A TIME
TONIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE...ANTICIPATE IT ONLY TO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE GALES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN. GALES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE ENTIRE LAKE ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FIRST ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WINDS TO THEN
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
PM SATURDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
849 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 840 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
Snow continues to slowly increase in coverage over parts of
northwest into west central Illinois this evening as a frontal
boundary...currently over central Iowa...shifts east into our
area late tonight. The snow reports out to our northwest were
increasing with vsbys as low as 1 1/2sm in northeast and east
central Iowa. Some of the high res model sounding data indicate
enough warm air advecting northeast into far southwest Illinois
overnight where we may see a wintry mix of precip including
rain/freezing rain and snow. But still enough spread in the
ensemble members in this area to hold off making any significant
changes to the grids with respect to precip type overnight, but
that will have to be watched.
Quick look at the 00z NAM-WRF showing a trend closer to what the
current GFS model suggests with the better threat for accumulating
snows over the northeast half of the forecast area...roughly
around 1 inch with some isolated 2 inch reports possible east of
I-57. Gradient remains tight across central Illinois so even though
the snow accumulations will be minor, any snowfall with the gusty
winds will produce areas of blowing snow creating slippery travel
conditions overnight.
WRF ensembles suggest a quick exit to the snow...roughly in the
07z-10z time frame...which the current HRRR is latching on to. For
now, will hold on to the current idea of ending the snow from
northwest to southeast Saturday morning with actually a lull in
the precip chances thru the remainder of the day Saturday before
another clipper starts to affect our area after midnight Sat
night/Sun morning.
We have seen our overnight lows reached early this evening as the
persistent south to southwest low level flow will keep temps
steady or slowly rising overnight as the trof/wind shift line out
to our west tracks thru our area in the morning. Readings over far
west central Illinois may hover around 35 for several hours this
evening into the early morning hours before the boundary shifts
thru the area towards dawn.
Other than the usual tweaking of hourly temperatures in the grids
for this evening, the current ZFP has a good handle on the weather
trends this evening, so will not be needing an update at this
time.
Smith
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 535 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
Main forecast concern will be the timing of the snow into the
forecast area this evening and how quickly the cigs drop down
to MVFR or lower. Looks as if the timing of the snow from north
to south will be from 02z-04z at PIA and BMI and then from 04z
to 06z for points further south and east. VFR cigs will lower
to MVFR cigs once the snow begins with our northern TAF sites
(PIA, BMI and CMI) seeing tempo IFR cigs in some of the brief
bursts of heavier snow that will accompany a trof/wind shift
line late tonight. Most of the snow should be east of the TAF
sites by 14z with skies gradually clearing from northwest to
southeast in the 15z-18z time frame with VFR conditions expected
in the afternoon. Surface winds will be gusty tonight but not
as strong as today`s winds. South to southwest winds will range
from 13 to 18kts with gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible. Look for
winds to shift into the northwest in the 10z-14z time frame
Saturday with gusty winds once again expected, especially during
the afternoon with a few locations seeing gusts around 30 kts
at times.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 221 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
Plenty of winter-weather challenges with this forecast
package...including chances for accumulating snow tonight and
again Saturday night, followed by bitterly cold conditions early
next week.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday
Strong southerly winds have developed across central Illinois this
afternoon in response to a tightening gradient between high
pressure centered over the Gulf Coast and an approaching cold
front dropping into the Dakotas. Winds will remain strong and
gusty this evening, with forecast soundings and numeric guidance
suggesting continued gusts to between 30 and 35mph. Thanks to the
steady southerly flow and increasing cloud cover, low temperatures
for tonight will be achieved early this evening followed by rising
temps overnight. As low pressure tracks eastward across Hudson
Bay, a trailing cold front will sweep into the area tonight.
Models are in agreement that a period of light snow will accompany
the front, although with only weak upper support and limited
moisture, accumulations will remain light. Most locations will
pick up 1 inch of snow or less tonight, with locations north of
the I-74 corridor perhaps measuring as much as 1 to 2 inches.
Aside from the falling snow, strong winds will continue through
the night causing considerable blowing snow and reduced
visibilities. While the light precipitation will be quick to exit
toward dawn, brisk northwesterly winds gusting over 30 mph behind
the departing front will persist into Saturday. As a result, have
opted to extend the Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM Saturday.
Depending on how much snow falls overnight and how much
blowing/drifting occurs, the advisory may even need to be extended
further into Saturday.
After a brief lull during the day Saturday, the next clipper
system will quickly approach from the northwest by Saturday night.
Model trends have slowed this system just a bit, so have removed
POPs during the evening. Models are still not in perfect agreement
regarding the exact track of the upper wave, with the GFS
remaining further south than the NAM. Consensus tracks the 500mb
vort max along/near the I-80 corridor, which would generally keep
the heaviest snow just north of the KILX CWA late Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Given strong upper dynamics and track across
north-central Illinois, have increased POPs with this system. Will
carry categorical POPs along/north of I-74 tapering down to just
low chance along/south of I-70. Accumulations will once again be
on the light side across much of central Illinois, with most areas
seeing 1 inch or less. Further north, higher totals of 2 to 3
inches will be possible along/north of I-74 depending upon the
exact track of the clipper.
Once this system exits the region, mild/dry weather will be the
rule Sunday afternoon ahead of an Arctic cold front approaching
from the north. Sunday will be the warmest day of the forecast
period, with high temperatures reaching the upper 30s and lower
40s. Lift along cold front will be strong enough to support snow
flurries or perhaps a few snow-showers Sunday evening, followed by
windy and sharply colder conditions overnight. As has been
advertised for several days, a considerable chunk of polar air
will settle southward across much of the eastern CONUS early next
week, resulting in some of the coldest readings thus far this
winter. Numeric guidance is suggesting high temperatures on Monday
remaining in the single digits and lows Monday night plunging to
as low as the teens below zero in many areas. These extremely cold
temperatures combined with brisk northwesterly winds will create
wind-chill values of 25 below to 35 below zero at times from late
Sunday night through Tuesday. Wind chill advisories and/or
warnings will be needed as the time nears.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Friday
Aside from a generally dry frontal passage on Thursday, the
extended will be characterized by dry weather with a gradual
warming trend. After sub-zero temperatures early Wednesday
morning, an increasingly zonal upper flow pattern will allow temps
to warm into the upper 20s and lower 30s by Friday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-041>046-048-053>057-063.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1006 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 SOUTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS AND NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT ONLY TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
BITTER COLD WILL ALSO RETURN BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. THEN...SNOW
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND FINALLY A BREAK FROM
THE RELENTLESS WINDS EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. TEMPS HAD
TUMBLED QUICKLY IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AS OF 03Z.
ENDLESS STREAM OF CLIPPERS CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT ONE RAPIDLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES. HAVE SOME CONCERN
THAT DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL A BIT
AS THIS SYSTEM SWINGS INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMS BETWEEN 09-12Z...AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE DRY LAYER WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOT BEING
ERODED COMPLETELY. WHILE DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL INTENSITY...
RATIOS WILL BE UP IN THE 15-18 TO 1 RANGE WHICH WILL COMPENSATE A
BIT. 00Z NAM AND RAP HAVE BOTH COME IN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MAIN
SWATH OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK LIGHT SNOW WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70.
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 06-07Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE IN
RESPONSE TO CLOUDS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES AS THE PRECIP
ARRIVES. FORECAST LOWS LOOKED REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE.
PERTINENT PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVER EVOLVING AND HISTORIC
JANUARY 2014 WINTER. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AS WILL A CLIPPER THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. 285K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AFTER 09Z SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH AROUND 15Z. MIXING RATIOS
WERE FROM 2 TO 3 G/KG WHICH FOR A SOLID 12 HOUR SNOW WOULD NORMALLY
PRODUCE AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE BEST LIFT
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST 6 HOURS...2 TO 3 INCHES
LOOKS GOOD MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF INDIANAPOLIS AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TO THE NORTHWEST OF INDY.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESSER TO THE SOUTH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST AREAS COULD ALSO SEE A MIX OF THE SNOW WITH
RAIN WHICH COULD FURTHER REDUCE AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...WENT ON THE COLD
SIDE OF MOS WITH THE SNOW PACK AND TRENDS AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
MIX DOWN THERE AS OF YET. WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY SINCE
BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
WIND CHILLS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL WELL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY...AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WIND CHILLS BELOW 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE
LIKELY THERE BEFORE 12Z MONDAY...SO STARTED A WIND CHILL WATCH AT
10Z MONDAY. WE INCLUDED THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORT TERM
WILL SHOW THAT ALL COUNTIES SEE WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW NEGATIVE 15
BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON TRENDS AND SNOW PACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
TEMPERATURES...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE SHORT
TERM.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AXIS OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG JUST AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE...ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S. THEN...WINDS WILL DIE OFF A
BUT MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO REACH 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR LOWER UNDER CLEARING SKIES...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE
NEAR MINUS 40 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. THE SOUTH WILL ALSO BE
COLD BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILLS TO MINUS 20. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
SHOULD BE VERY NEAR WHAT THEY WERE AFTER THE SNOW STORM OF JANUARY
5TH OF THIS YEAR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH THE COLDEST 925
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES OF 27 BELOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY NOT EVEN WARM UP TO ZERO
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
A SLOW WARM UP IS PROGGED FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES START OUT
BITTERLY COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND THEN 20S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY THAT WILL
BRING SNOW TO THE AREA SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS GIVEN FROM
INITIALIZATION. BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE WARM ADVECTION
AND A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ACCESS TO
MOISTURE. UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN WILL WARM
AND SATURATE SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX. MADE
MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE INITIALIZATION FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
STILL SEEING SPORADIC WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KTS BUT IN GENERAL...WINDS
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 06Z WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FAST
APPROACHING CLIPPER.
00Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12 OR SO HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM THEREAFTER.
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW REMAIN A PROBLEM...BUT GUSTS ARE STARTING TO
DISSIPATE. WILL CARRY THEM FOR ANOTHER HOUR AT THE OUTLYING SITES
AND ANOTHER TWO HOURS AT IND. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY...BY AROUND 09-12Z. SNOW FROM NEXT SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY START AROUND 12Z ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MVFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY YET AGAIN...BUT LIKELY ONLY IN THE MID TO
HIGH 20KT RANGE. MAY GUST A BIT STRONGER AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD/RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1201 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
STRONG WAA LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HELPING
TO PUSH MAX TEMPS ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPS. THE LATEST ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST WITH
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND HAS BEEN THE
BEST GUIDANCE LATELY WITH THESE QUICK ONE DAY WARM-UPS. IF MIXED
TO JUST 900MB...TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY WHICH RESULTED IN WARMING TEMPS UP 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO MIX SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH BETTER
SUNSHINE...SO WIND GUSTS MAY TEETER ON ADVISORY LEVEL FOR A SHORT
TIME FRAME LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A QUICK SHOT OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN TIERS OF FORECAST THRU 18Z. HIRES ARW/NMM
WRF MODELS BARELY HAVE ANY PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THE LATEST HOPWRF (24.06Z) AND HRRR (24.06Z) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THEM. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING FROM 13-17Z AND
KEPT MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE HIRES
ARW/NMM WRF MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA
BY 22Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. SO WENT DRY 18Z TO 21Z AND CONFINED POPS TO
THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF IOWA COUNTIES. MCW SOUNDING QUICKLY
BECOMES DEEPLY SATURATED BY AROUND 00Z AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SNOW/RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST...AS
SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW MELT PRIOR TO
REACHING THE GROUND.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
WEATHER WILL BE VERY ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT HEADLINE EVENTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...INCLUDING WHAT MAY
BE A BLIZZARD LATE SUNDAY. INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...WHICH WILL NOT
BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...SHOULD BE ENTERING NRN IA AT BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS HUDSON BAY LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DEEP BUT SOMEWHAT PATCHY WITH
NAM LIFT MORE BULLISH THAN GFS OR ECMWF. WITH FAST MOVEMENT AND
FOLLOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...ANY UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FLEETING.
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER SOLUTIONS BRING MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE OR AT
LEAST NEAR THE FREEZING MARK MAKING THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE RAIN
SW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER NORTHEAST. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL
ALSO RAISE LOWEST 1KM TEMPS HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW RATIOS SO ONLY
EXPECT ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS FAR NORTHEAST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN FOLLOW SAT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
AND COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN LITTLE DIURNAL REBOUND. IN
FACT...NON-DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MAKE HIGHS AND LOWS PROBLEMATIC WITH LOWER/RISING TEMPS AT TIMES
CENTERED AROUND DAYS/NIGHTS RESPECTIVELY. ATTENTION WILL THEN
QUICKLY TURN UPSTREAM WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP NW-SE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
DEEP...AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DECENT KINEMATIC LIFT...IT
SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY STRONG AND IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
/THETA-E ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS/. THIS DEEP LIFT AND COOLER
COLUMN TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN TONIGHT...WELL
INTO THE TEENS. RATIOS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...OVER 20...BUT THE
MAX LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE 1-2KM AND MAINLY BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED RATIOS AND FAST
SYSTEM MOVEMENT...LIKELY SNOWING LESS THAN SIX HOURS AT ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION...SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN THE FAR NE CORNERS AS WELL
/MASON CITY/WATERLOO NORTH/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT THE GREATEST
ON AMOUNTS HOWEVER AS ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED THEIR
SNOW AXIS EMPHASIS. ECMWF NOW EMPHASIZES MORE NELY TRACK.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE BIG IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACTS NOT SEEN UNTIL SUN AND SUN EVENING. MAY SEE
SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS...BUT LARGER PROBLEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND A BIG
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY
DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS OFTEN 40-55KTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH. NO HEADLINES AS OF YET
IN THIS PERIOD...BUT OPTIONS MAY ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM WIND
ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS TO FULL FLEDGED BLIZZARD WARNINGS IF
FORECASTED SNOWFALL DEVELOPS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOMEWHAT OF A WORSE CASE SCENARIO WITH A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS INTO MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS NE WILL REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH...READINGS MAY SURGE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK NW-SE ALONG
THE SWRN FRINGE OF SNOW ACCUMS WITH SOME MINOR MELTING FOLLOWED BY A
FLASH FREEZE WITH SHARP TEMP DROP LATER IN THE EVENING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER ARCTIC COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ISSUES AND CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW NE HALF.
SERIOUS...LIFE THREATENING TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NE HALF
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TO MAKE ANY
HEADWAY...ASSUMING FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS OF COURSE. THIS WOULD BE
COINCIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 45 BELOW. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
PATTERN INTO TUE...AND PERSISTENT NWLY WINDS...TEMPS AT MASON CITY
FOR INSTANCE MAY NOT TOP ZERO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT
IN A 30 HOUR PERIOD WITH AT LEAST MINOR BLOWING SNOW AND WARNING
CRITERIA WIND CHILLS /-30F/. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WILL NEED CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD WITH CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS SOMEWHAT MORE INACTIVE
THANKFULLY WITH ONLY PRECIP WINDOW AROUND WED NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO
ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS A LOBE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z SAT. WINDS GENERALLY TO STAY IN THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE AND GUSTS TO IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. STARTING
AROUND 22Z FRI...WINTRY PRECIP WILL START OVER NORTHERN TAF
SITES...REACHING BOTH KDSM AND KALO BY AROUND 23Z AND KOTM BY 01Z
SAT. KMCW AND KALO WILL HAVE -SN...KFOD -RASN...AND BOTH KDSM AND
KOTM -RN. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO KALO
AND KMCW DURING PERIODS OF SNOW. CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AS
PRECIP MOVES IN. SKIES CLEARING BY 12Z SAT FOR ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
543 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
STRONG WAA LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HELPING
TO PUSH MAX TEMPS ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPS. THE LATEST ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST WITH
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND HAS BEEN THE
BEST GUIDANCE LATELY WITH THESE QUICK ONE DAY WARM-UPS. IF MIXED
TO JUST 900MB...TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY WHICH RESULTED IN WARMING TEMPS UP 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO MIX SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH BETTER
SUNSHINE...SO WIND GUSTS MAY TEETER ON ADVISORY LEVEL FOR A SHORT
TIME FRAME LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A QUICK SHOT OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN TIERS OF FORECAST THRU 18Z. HIRES ARW/NMM
WRF MODELS BARELY HAVE ANY PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THE LATEST HOPWRF (24.06Z) AND HRRR (24.06Z) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THEM. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING FROM 13-17Z AND
KEPT MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE HIRES
ARW/NMM WRF MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA
BY 22Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. SO WENT DRY 18Z TO 21Z AND CONFINED POPS TO
THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF IOWA COUNTIES. MCW SOUNDING QUICKLY
BECOMES DEEPLY SATURATED BY AROUND 00Z AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SNOW/RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST...AS
SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW MELT PRIOR TO
REACHING THE GROUND.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
WEATHER WILL BE VERY ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT HEADLINE EVENTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...INCLUDING WHAT MAY
BE A BLIZZARD LATE SUNDAY. INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...WHICH WILL NOT
BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...SHOULD BE ENTERING NRN IA AT BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS HUDSON BAY LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DEEP BUT SOMEWHAT PATCHY WITH
NAM LIFT MORE BULLISH THAN GFS OR ECMWF. WITH FAST MOVEMENT AND
FOLLOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...ANY UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FLEETING.
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER SOLUTIONS BRING MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE OR AT
LEAST NEAR THE FREEZING MARK MAKING THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE RAIN
SW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER NORTHEAST. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL
ALSO RAISE LOWEST 1KM TEMPS HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW RATIOS SO ONLY
EXPECT ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS FAR NORTHEAST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN FOLLOW SAT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
AND COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN LITTLE DIURNAL REBOUND. IN
FACT...NON-DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MAKE HIGHS AND LOWS PROBLEMATIC WITH LOWER/RISING TEMPS AT TIMES
CENTERED AROUND DAYS/NIGHTS RESPECTIVELY. ATTENTION WILL THEN
QUICKLY TURN UPSTREAM WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP NW-SE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
DEEP...AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DECENT KINEMATIC LIFT...IT
SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY STRONG AND IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
/THETA-E ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS/. THIS DEEP LIFT AND COOLER
COLUMN TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN TONIGHT...WELL
INTO THE TEENS. RATIOS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...OVER 20...BUT THE
MAX LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE 1-2KM AND MAINLY BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED RATIOS AND FAST
SYSTEM MOVEMENT...LIKELY SNOWING LESS THAN SIX HOURS AT ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION...SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN THE FAR NE CORNERS AS WELL
/MASON CITY/WATERLOO NORTH/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT THE GREATEST
ON AMOUNTS HOWEVER AS ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED THEIR
SNOW AXIS EMPHASIS. ECMWF NOW EMPHASIZES MORE NELY TRACK.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE BIG IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACTS NOT SEEN UNTIL SUN AND SUN EVENING. MAY SEE
SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS...BUT LARGER PROBLEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND A BIG
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY
DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS OFTEN 40-55KTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH. NO HEADLINES AS OF YET
IN THIS PERIOD...BUT OPTIONS MAY ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM WIND
ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS TO FULL FLEDGED BLIZZARD WARNINGS IF
FORECASTED SNOWFALL DEVELOPS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOMEWHAT OF A WORSE CASE SCENARIO WITH A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS INTO MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS NE WILL REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH...READINGS MAY SURGE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK NW-SE ALONG
THE SWRN FRINGE OF SNOW ACCUMS WITH SOME MINOR MELTING FOLLOWED BY A
FLASH FREEZE WITH SHARP TEMP DROP LATER IN THE EVENING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER ARCTIC COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ISSUES AND CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW NE HALF.
SERIOUS...LIFE THREATENING TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NE HALF
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TO MAKE ANY
HEADWAY...ASSUMING FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS OF COURSE. THIS WOULD BE
COINCIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 45 BELOW. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
PATTERN INTO TUE...AND PERSISTENT NWLY WINDS...TEMPS AT MASON CITY
FOR INSTANCE MAY NOT TOP ZERO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT
IN A 30 HOUR PERIOD WITH AT LEAST MINOR BLOWING SNOW AND WARNING
CRITERIA WIND CHILLS /-30F/. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WILL NEED CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD WITH CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS SOMEWHAT MORE INACTIVE
THANKFULLY WITH ONLY PRECIP WINDOW AROUND WED NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO
ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS A LOBE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND HAVE GUSTS NEAR 30
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING. NEXT ISSUE IS WITH QUICK SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT TO BRING MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY VIS FOR LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN. SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS THIS EVENING...BUT
STRATUS LOOKS TO STICK AROUND WITH THE STRONG CAA DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
STRONG WAA LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HELPING
TO PUSH MAX TEMPS ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPS. THE LATEST ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST WITH
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND HAS BEEN THE
BEST GUIDANCE LATELY WITH THESE QUICK ONE DAY WARM-UPS. IF MIXED
TO JUST 900MB...TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY WHICH RESULTED IN WARMING TEMPS UP 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO MIX SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH BETTER
SUNSHINE...SO WIND GUSTS MAY TEETER ON ADVISORY LEVEL FOR A SHORT
TIME FRAME LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A QUICK SHOT OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN TIERS OF FORECAST THRU 18Z. HIRES ARW/NMM
WRF MODELS BARELY HAVE ANY PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THE LATEST HOPWRF (24.06Z) AND HRRR (24.06Z) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THEM. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING FROM 13-17Z AND
KEPT MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE HIRES
ARW/NMM WRF MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA
BY 22Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. SO WENT DRY 18Z TO 21Z AND CONFINED POPS TO
THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF IOWA COUNTIES. MCW SOUNDING QUICKLY
BECOMES DEEPLY SATURATED BY AROUND 00Z AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SNOW/RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST...AS
SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW MELT PRIOR TO
REACHING THE GROUND.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
WEATHER WILL BE VERY ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT HEADLINE EVENTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...INCLUDING WHAT MAY
BE A BLIZZARD LATE SUNDAY. INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...WHICH WILL NOT
BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...SHOULD BE ENTERING NRN IA AT BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS HUDSON BAY LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DEEP BUT SOMEWHAT PATCHY WITH
NAM LIFT MORE BULLISH THAN GFS OR ECMWF. WITH FAST MOVEMENT AND
FOLLOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...ANY UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FLEETING.
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER SOLUTIONS BRING MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE OR AT
LEAST NEAR THE FREEZING MARK MAKING THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE RAIN
SW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER NORTHEAST. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL
ALSO RAISE LOWEST 1KM TEMPS HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW RATIOS SO ONLY
EXPECT ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS FAR NORTHEAST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN FOLLOW SAT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
AND COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN LITTLE DIURNAL REBOUND. IN
FACT...NON-DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MAKE HIGHS AND LOWS PROBLEMATIC WITH LOWER/RISING TEMPS AT TIMES
CENTERED AROUND DAYS/NIGHTS RESPECTIVELY. ATTENTION WILL THEN
QUICKLY TURN UPSTREAM WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP NW-SE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
DEEP...AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DECENT KINEMATIC LIFT...IT
SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY STRONG AND IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
/THETA-E ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS/. THIS DEEP LIFT AND COOLER
COLUMN TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN TONIGHT...WELL
INTO THE TEENS. RATIOS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...OVER 20...BUT THE
MAX LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE 1-2KM AND MAINLY BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED RATIOS AND FAST
SYSTEM MOVEMENT...LIKELY SNOWING LESS THAN SIX HOURS AT ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION...SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN THE FAR NE CORNERS AS WELL
/MASON CITY/WATERLOO NORTH/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT THE GREATEST
ON AMOUNTS HOWEVER AS ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED THEIR
SNOW AXIS EMPHASIS. ECMWF NOW EMPHASIZES MORE NELY TRACK.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE BIG IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACTS NOT SEEN UNTIL SUN AND SUN EVENING. MAY SEE
SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS...BUT LARGER PROBLEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND A BIG
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY
DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS OFTEN 40-55KTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH. NO HEADLINES AS OF YET
IN THIS PERIOD...BUT OPTIONS MAY ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM WIND
ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS TO FULL FLEDGED BLIZZARD WARNINGS IF
FORECASTED SNOWFALL DEVELOPS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOMEWHAT OF A WORSE CASE SCENARIO WITH A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS INTO MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS NE WILL REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH...READINGS MAY SURGE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK NW-SE ALONG
THE SWRN FRINGE OF SNOW ACCUMS WITH SOME MINOR MELTING FOLLOWED BY A
FLASH FREEZE WITH SHARP TEMP DROP LATER IN THE EVENING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER ARCTIC COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ISSUES AND CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW NE HALF.
SERIOUS...LIFE THREATENING TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NE HALF
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TO MAKE ANY
HEADWAY...ASSUMING FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS OF COURSE. THIS WOULD BE
COINCIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 45 BELOW. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
PATTERN INTO TUE...AND PERSISTENT NWLY WINDS...TEMPS AT MASON CITY
FOR INSTANCE MAY NOT TOP ZERO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT
IN A 30 HOUR PERIOD WITH AT LEAST MINOR BLOWING SNOW AND WARNING
CRITERIA WIND CHILLS /-30F/. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WILL NEED CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD WITH CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS SOMEWHAT MORE INACTIVE
THANKFULLY WITH ONLY PRECIP WINDOW AROUND WED NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO
ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS A LOBE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FRIDAY AND TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER. PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
CIGS LOWERING AND MVFR VSBYS. MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED AT THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KDSM
AND OTM.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1259 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. JUST TWEAKED THE TEMPS AND WINDS A BIT. THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE SNOW IS OVER HAMILTON OHIO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
THE 18Z GFS AND 0Z NAM HAVE A BIT HIGHER QPF FROM 12Z TO 18Z FROM
JACKSON AND ESTILL COUNTIES SOUTHWEST TOWARD WAYNE COUNTY AND THEN
EAST ACROSS LAUREL COUNTY TO WESTERN HARLAN COUNTY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE 22Z HRRR DATA IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER QPF THAT PERIOD NEARER TO THE TN BORDER INCLUDING OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE OPTED TO UP QPF IN THAT
AREA FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY PERIOD AND THIS ALSO UPPED SNOWFALL
AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...WE ALSO HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM 6Z TO 18Z A BIT TO ABOUT 13:1 OR NEAR THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. THIS LED TO VERY MINOR CHANGES AND BRINGS
AMOUNTS TO A SOLID 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...THE WSW STILL LOOKS WARRANTED AND VALID
TIMES ALSO LOOK GOOD. THE UPDATED SNOWFALL STILL FITS WITHIN THE
EARLIER RANGES SO NO CHANGES TO THE WSW TEXT PRODUCT ARE EXPECTED.
GRIDS WILL BE FRESHENED UP BASED ON THE 10 PM EST OBS AND A FRESHENED
UP ZFP WILL ALSO BE SENT TO COVER THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR HOURLY TEMP...WIND AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS. OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH PW IS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 0.4 INCHES DURING THIS EVENT...
THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS TO THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS FOR THIS
EVENT. MODEL TIMEHEIGHT SECTIONS DO NOT HAVE A DEEP SATURATED LEVEL
NEAR THE -10C LEVEL FOR A VERY SUSTAINED PERIOD AND FOR MOST OF THE
EVENT OMEGA APPEARS LIMITED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS NEAR
13:1. AT THIS POINT...OUR QPF IS CLOSER TO THE WETTER NAM AND HIGHER
THAN THE LATEST GFS AND WPC GUIDANCE. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT 2 TO
3 INCH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE COMMON BY SATURDAY EVENING. AMOUNTS NEARING
4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN ANY PARTICULAR QUADRANT OF THE CWA. THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND IN THE NW PART OF THE CWA.
THE 18Z MODEL DATA SUGGESTED SLIGHTLY STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS FROM
MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND GUSTS COULD REACH THE
30 TO 35 MPH RANGE AT TIMES DURING SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. THE 18Z NAM HAS SOME QPF FROM SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DURING
THE 0Z TO 3Z SUNDAY PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND IT APPEARS
THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH LATE EVENING
THERE AS WELL SO BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ALSO BE A THREAT THEN AS WELL.
WITH THAT IN MIND WE HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY IN TIME A
COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES TO MATCH AREAS TO OUR EAST.
OTHER THAN THE ADJUSTMENTS FOR TRENDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
AND GOING A BIT STRONGER WITH MIDDAY TO EARLY EVENING WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING EASTERN
CANADA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE
FEATURES FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
ALOFT...FLATTER FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN ENJOYING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND DESPITE
THE FRIGID START ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO MAKE
IT INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THANKS TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 60 KTS AT 850 MB...A LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...WILL PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS BEGINNING
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN CLOSER TO DAWN
FOR THE SOUTHEAST. 10 TO 20 MPH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH...WILL BLOW THE SNOW AROUND AT TIMES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND ALLOW FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE LINE UP DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN
THE STEADY SNOW WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SEEING A BRIEF WINDOW OF
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT LATER IN THE DAY. IN GENERAL...MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING PERHAPS A BIT
MORE WHERE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN LINGER THE LONGEST. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL COME TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS AND
THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE EASTERN
VALLEYS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BEFORE THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT BACK DOWN INTO THE 5 TO 10
DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO AVERAGE AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS THEY DEPICT INTRUSIONS AND SUBSEQUENT
RETREATS OF PORTIONS OF THE RESIDENT DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON AN UPSWING LOCALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LATEST
U.S. SPOKE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW
ITSELF RECHARGES AND BACK-BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE NEXT SURGE SOUTH TAKES PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING NODE
OF THIS CANADIAN TROUGH...THE BANE OF OUR RECENT WINTER DAYS...
SPILLING INTO THE STATES. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
KENTUCKY HELPING TO USHER THESE LOW HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE
OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH THE ENERGY STREAM THAT ACCOMPANIES
THEM. THE GEM...MEANWHILE...IS DISCOUNTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS IT
HAS A BROADER UPPER LOW AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN MOST PORTION OF THE LATEST SWIPE
FROM THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
AMPLIFICATION WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS MORE PROMINENT IN THE ECMWF
THAN THE GFS THIS ROUND. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS AREA FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS AS A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF A SOUTHERN LOW CAPABLE OF
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH VERY COLD AIR TO THE
NORTH AND GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS A VERSION OF THIS
BUT DOES TAKE ITS MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST QUICKER
AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS KEEP THE
ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE MOSTLY HARMLESSLY SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE
NEXT ITERATION IN THIS BOUT OF PERIODIC INVASIONS FROM CANADIAN TAKES
PLACE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN A CLOSED LOW SINKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...AGAIN MORE IMPRESSIVE...BUT FURTHER NORTH...IN THE
ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THIS PROGGED SHALLOWER PATH OF THE UPPER LOW/S
NODES LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELAXATION OF THE BITTER
COLD THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY A GOOD THING
IF MOISTURE RETURNS TOO FAST AND THE SFC DOESN/T WARM AS MUCH AS IT
DOES ALOFT...STAY TUNED. DID FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH
MIDWEEK BEFORE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF INTO FRIDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A NOTICEABLE WARM UP FOR EAST KENTUCKY
ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTS NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALONG WITH SOUTH WINDS AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY AND A FRESH SNOW PACK SO
THAT MANY SHELTERED PLACES MAY NOT GET MUCH PAST FREEZING INTO THE
EVENING. THIS SO CALLED WARMING WILL NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS THE
LOW RESPONSIBLE MOVES PAST TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND SENDS
ANOTHER VERSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY BY 12Z
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW...
PROBABLY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...AND BITTER COLD AIR POURING INTO
THE STATE. THUS THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT AND
TEMPS LIKELY DOWN NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH RESPONSIBLE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN EVEN COLDER MORNING
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SOUTHERN WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH
AS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING. SOME MODERATION BEGINS ON THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WOULD
IMPACT THE AREA THAT NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS THE MAIN THREAT BUT...
FOR A CHANGE...THE COLDEST AIR SKIRTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. THEN BEGINS OUR THAW...BUT CAN IT TAKE HOLD?
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN FAIRLY DECENT...BUT DID MAKE CHANGES MAINLY
TO A COUPLE OF LOW TEMP GRIDS AND POPS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...TO REFLECT HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN CONTROL FOR CHILLIER NIGHTS
AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
A FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS IT NEARS...THE
CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER. THE WINDS AREA ALSO INCREASING OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BE TRICKY THROUGH 9Z AS SOME OF THE TAFS
MAY DECOUPLE AND THE WINDS DROP OFF FOR A WHILE AND THEN BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN AS THE INVERSION BREAKS FROM THE HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE TAF
STATIONS BETWEEN 11-12Z. AS IT DOES THE CIGS WILL DROP...HOWEVER THE
MOST LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE VSBY. THE COMBINATION OF THE BANDS
OF HEAVY SNOW...ALONG WITH THE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE BRING THE VSBY
DOWN TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 22-00Z. AS
IT DOES...IT MAY BRING THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OF THE DAY WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AFTER 00Z AS THE ARCTIC AIR POURS BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104-106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ058-
068-069-079-080-083-084-108-111-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-118-120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ085>087-107-109-110-112-113-115>117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1007 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
THE 18Z GFS AND 0Z NAM HAVE A BIT HIGHER QPF FROM 12Z TO 18Z FROM
JACKSON AND ESTILL COUNTIES SOUTHWEST TOWARD WAYNE COUNTY AND THEN
EAST ACROSS LAUREL COUNTY TO WESTERN HARLAN COUNTY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE 22Z HRRR DATA IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER QPF THAT PERIOD NEARER TO THE TN BORDER INCLUDING OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE OPTED TO UP QPF IN THAT
AREA FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY PERIOD AND THIS ALSO UPPED SNOWFALL
AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...WE ALSO HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM 6Z TO 18Z A BIT TO ABOUT 13:1 OR NEAR THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. THIS LED TO VERY MINOR CHANGES AND BRINGS
AMOUNTS TO A SOLID 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...THE WSW STILL LOOKS WARRANTED AND VALID
TIMES ALSO LOOK GOOD. THE UPDATED SNOWFALL STILL FITS WITHIN THE
EARLIER RANGES SO NO CHANGES TO THE WSW TEXT PRODUCT ARE EXPECTED.
GRIDS WILL BE FRESHENED UP BASED ON THE 10 PM EST OBS AND A FRESHENED
UP ZFP WILL ALSO BE SENT TO COVER THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR HOURLY TEMP...WIND AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS. OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH PW IS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 0.4 INCHES DURING THIS EVENT...
THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS TO THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS FOR THIS
EVENT. MODEL TIMEHEIGHT SECTIONS DO NOT HAVE A DEEP SATURATED LEVEL
NEAR THE -10C LEVEL FOR A VERY SUSTAINED PERIOD AND FOR MOST OF THE
EVENT OMEGA APPEARS LIMITED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS NEAR
13:1. AT THIS POINT...OUR QPF IS CLOSER TO THE WETTER NAM AND HIGHER
THAN THE LATEST GFS AND WPC GUIDANCE. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT 2 TO
3 INCH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE COMMON BY SATURDAY EVENING. AMOUNTS NEARING
4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN ANY PARTICULAR QUADRANT OF THE CWA. THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND IN THE NW PART OF THE CWA.
THE 18Z MODEL DATA SUGGESTED SLIGHTLY STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS FROM
MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND GUSTS COULD REACH THE
30 TO 35 MPH RANGE AT TIMES DURING SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. THE 18Z NAM HAS SOME QPF FROM SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DURING
THE 0Z TO 3Z SUNDAY PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND IT APPEARS
THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH LATE EVENING
THERE AS WELL SO BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ALSO BE A THREAT THEN AS WELL.
WITH THAT IN MIND WE HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY IN TIME A
COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES TO MATCH AREAS TO OUR EAST.
OTHER THAN THE ADJUSTMENTS FOR TRENDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
AND GOING A BIT STRONGER WITH MIDDAY TO EARLY EVENING WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING EASTERN
CANADA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE
FEATURES FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
ALOFT...FLATTER FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN ENJOYING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND DESPITE
THE FRIGID START ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO MAKE
IT INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THANKS TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 60 KTS AT 850 MB...A LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...WILL PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS BEGINNING
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN CLOSER TO DAWN
FOR THE SOUTHEAST. 10 TO 20 MPH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH...WILL BLOW THE SNOW AROUND AT TIMES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND ALLOW FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE LINE UP DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN
THE STEADY SNOW WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SEEING A BRIEF WINDOW OF
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT LATER IN THE DAY. IN GENERAL...MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING PERHAPS A BIT
MORE WHERE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN LINGER THE LONGEST. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL COME TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS AND
THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE EASTERN
VALLEYS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BEFORE THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT BACK DOWN INTO THE 5 TO 10
DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO AVERAGE AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS THEY DEPICT INTRUSIONS AND SUBSEQUENT
RETREATS OF PORTIONS OF THE RESIDENT DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON AN UPSWING LOCALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LATEST
U.S. SPOKE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW
ITSELF RECHARGES AND BACK-BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE NEXT SURGE SOUTH TAKES PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING NODE
OF THIS CANADIAN TROUGH...THE BANE OF OUR RECENT WINTER DAYS...
SPILLING INTO THE STATES. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
KENTUCKY HELPING TO USHER THESE LOW HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE
OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH THE ENERGY STREAM THAT ACCOMPANIES
THEM. THE GEM...MEANWHILE...IS DISCOUNTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS IT
HAS A BROADER UPPER LOW AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN MOST PORTION OF THE LATEST SWIPE
FROM THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
AMPLIFICATION WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS MORE PROMINENT IN THE ECMWF
THAN THE GFS THIS ROUND. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS AREA FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS AS A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF A SOUTHERN LOW CAPABLE OF
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH VERY COLD AIR TO THE
NORTH AND GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS A VERSION OF THIS
BUT DOES TAKE ITS MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST QUICKER
AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS KEEP THE
ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE MOSTLY HARMLESSLY SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE
NEXT ITERATION IN THIS BOUT OF PERIODIC INVASIONS FROM CANADIAN TAKES
PLACE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN A CLOSED LOW SINKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...AGAIN MORE IMPRESSIVE...BUT FURTHER NORTH...IN THE
ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THIS PROGGED SHALLOWER PATH OF THE UPPER LOW/S
NODES LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELAXATION OF THE BITTER
COLD THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY A GOOD THING
IF MOISTURE RETURNS TOO FAST AND THE SFC DOESN/T WARM AS MUCH AS IT
DOES ALOFT...STAY TUNED. DID FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH
MIDWEEK BEFORE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF INTO FRIDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A NOTICEABLE WARM UP FOR EAST KENTUCKY
ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTS NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALONG WITH SOUTH WINDS AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY AND A FRESH SNOW PACK SO
THAT MANY SHELTERED PLACES MAY NOT GET MUCH PAST FREEZING INTO THE
EVENING. THIS SO CALLED WARMING WILL NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS THE
LOW RESPONSIBLE MOVES PAST TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND SENDS
ANOTHER VERSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY BY 12Z
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW...
PROBABLY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...AND BITTER COLD AIR POURING INTO
THE STATE. THUS THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT AND
TEMPS LIKELY DOWN NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH RESPONSIBLE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN EVEN COLDER MORNING
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SOUTHERN WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH
AS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING. SOME MODERATION BEGINS ON THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WOULD
IMPACT THE AREA THAT NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS THE MAIN THREAT BUT...
FOR A CHANGE...THE COLDEST AIR SKIRTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. THEN BEGINS OUR THAW...BUT CAN IT TAKE HOLD?
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN FAIRLY DECENT...BUT DID MAKE CHANGES MAINLY
TO A COUPLE OF LOW TEMP GRIDS AND POPS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...TO REFLECT HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN CONTROL FOR CHILLIER NIGHTS
AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER...MAINLY BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z...ALONG
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z IN BROAD VALLEYS AND
THE RIDGES...AND THEN MIXING SHOULD BRING THOSE TO ALL LOCATIONS
AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR BETWEEN 10 AND
15Z...WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO LIFR OR LOWER AT
TIMES DURING THE HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW AND WIND.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104-106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
KYZ058-068-069-079-080-083-084-108-111-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
KYZ088-118-120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
KYZ085>087-107-109-110-112-113-115>117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
817 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC
ON MONDAY DRIVING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IN NEW YORK STATE...A LONG LINE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...REACHING WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 07Z. THE INTENSITY OF THIS BAND SHOULD WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
USED WIND EFFECT TOOL TO BRING SLIGHTLY MORE SNOWFALL TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AS WNW FLOW DEVELOPS.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.
MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS PACKAGE.
PREV DISC...AT 19Z...A 984 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOW
WILL TRACK TO NEAR THE GASPE PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY DRAGGING THE
COLD FRONTS QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE`LL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION FROM THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER AREA WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION MAYBE JUST INLAND FROM THE MID COAST WHERE OCEAN
EFFECT CONTINUES. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID COAST...THE STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES UP WELL INTO THE 30S
WHERE MELTING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX WITH OR BRIEF CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AS FUNNELING BETWEEN THE VARIOUS PENINSULA`S MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WE`LL SEE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR...BUT VERY COLD AND WINDY ON SUNDAY AS ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT A
GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN APPRECIABLE WIND
CHILL. IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE WIND CHILL HEADLINES POSTED FOR AT
LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WINDS DROP OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER DUSK THEN SHOULD
STABILIZE AS CLOUDS ARRIVE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE...WITH LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOWS BREAKING OUT MAINLY
NORTH OF A LEBANON /KLEB/ TO PORTLAND /KPWM/ LINE IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEPLY AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY USHERING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR EVERY 24-36 HOURS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
MOISTURE RETURN ISN`T GOOD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT SHUTS
PRECIPITATION OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE NEAR 1-3 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
OVER THE MIDCOAST.
DENSE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. IT SUCCEEDS IN HOLDING OFF THE
NEXT SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY THIS TIME THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE MODERATED SOMEWHAT AND UPPER LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE ZERO DEGREE SURFACE ISOTHERM JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER.
AFTER A WARM UP INTO THE 20S AND 30S MONDAY...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS FROM NEAR ZERO TO -10 DEGREES
F AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS/20S SOUTH. A
SW/W WIND CONTRIBUTES TOWARDS A GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH WND GUSTS TO 25 KT. VFR SUNDAY WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO
25 KT. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING AFT 06Z MON IN LIGHT SNOW.
LONG TERM...AREAS OF LIFR/IFR/MVFR BECOMING VFR MONDAY BY NOON AS
SHOWERS MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PERIODS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY BE GUSTY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...GALES FOR ALL WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. A BREAK IN THE GALES IS
EXPECTED FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE THEY REDEVELOP BEHIND AN ARCTIC
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY RETURN
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...HENCE A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE BORDERLINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...HOWEVER WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5
FT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SEAS CALM DOWN SOMEWHAT FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001-
002.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
444 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC
ON MONDAY DRIVING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HRRR RUN FROM 21Z SHOWING SOME HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
NIGHT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PREV DISC...
AT 19Z...A 984 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL
TRACK TO NEAR THE GASPE PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY DRAGGING THE COLD
FRONTS QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE`LL SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION FROM THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER AREA WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION MAYBE JUST INLAND FROM THE MID COAST WHERE OCEAN
EFFECT CONTINUES. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID COAST...THE STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES UP WELL INTO THE 30S
WHERE MELTING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX WITH OR BRIEF CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AS FUNNELING BETWEEN THE VARIOUS PENINSULA`S MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WE`LL SEE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR...BUT VERY COLD AND WINDY ON SUNDAY AS ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT A
GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN APPRECIABLE WIND
CHILL. IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE WIND CHILL HEADLINES POSTED FOR AT
LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WINDS DROP OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER DUSK THEN SHOULD
STABILIZE AS CLOUDS ARRIVE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE...WITH LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOWS BREAKING OUT MAINLY
NORTH OF A LEBANON /KLEB/ TO PORTLAND /KPWM/ LINE IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEPLY AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY USHERING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR EVERY 24-36 HOURS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
MOISTURE RETURN ISN`T GOOD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT SHUTS
PRECIPITATION OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE NEAR 1-3 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
OVER THE MIDCOAST.
DENSE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. IT SUCCEEDS IN HOLDING OFF THE
NEXT SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY THIS TIME THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE MODERATED SOMEWHAT AND UPPER LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE ZERO DEGREE SURFACE ISOTHERM JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER.
AFTER A WARM UP INTO THE 20S AND 30S MONDAY...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS FROM NEAR ZERO TO -10 DEGREES
F AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS/20S SOUTH. A
SW/W WIND CONTRIBUTES TOWARDS A GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH WND GUSTS TO 25 KT. VFR SUNDAY WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO
25 KT. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING AFT 06Z MON IN LIGHT SNOW.
LONG TERM...AREAS OF LIFR/IFR/MVFR BECOMING VFR MONDAY BY NOON AS
SHOWERS MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PERIODS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY BE GUSTY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...GALE EXTENDED THROUGH 21Z
SUNDAY WITH THE NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GALES FOR ALL
WATERS INTO THIS EVENING FOR GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. A BREAK IN THE
GALES IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE THEY REDEVELOP BEHIND
AN ARCTIC FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY RETURN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM...ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE BORDERLINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...HOWEVER WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5
FT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SEAS CALM DOWN SOMEWHAT FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ022-025>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
101 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
SUNDAY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING MACKINAC COUNTY AND SOME OF THE NORTHWEST
LOWER COUNTIES. NOT A TON OF SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (2-4
INCHES WESTERN MACKINAC...1-3 INCHES CENTERED AROUND
ANTRIM/KALKASKA COUNTIES NORTHWEST LOWER)...BUT STILL BLOWING
AROUND A BIT SO EXTENDING THE HEADLINE IS THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET
(AND AMATEUR SECOND-GUESSING) AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/MOST OF NORTHWEST LOWER. ICE COVER
WEST OF THE STRAITS HAVING AN IMPACT WITH A STRIPE OF SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EXTENDING TOWARD THUNDER BAY. SO
HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS WHERE IT IS
NOT SNOWING. BEST SNOW SHOWERS FOCUSED TOWARD GRAND MARAIS WHERE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG LAKE INDUCED THERMAL RIDGE
MAXIMIZING CONVERGENCE...THIS BAND IS CONNECTING TO BEST SNOW
BANDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE MANITOU ISLANDS AND BEAVER
ISLAND...WHICH IS IMPACTING THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY. WILL
BE EVALUATING CURRENT HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WHICH ARE
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 16Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A GUSTY NW
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY EXITING EAST OUT OUR CWA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 15
KTS ARE PUSHING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND INTO N CENTRAL
AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN ATTM. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO MORE OF A TRUE NW FLOW
PATTERN...IMPACTING MAINLY WRN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES
WHERE OPEN UPSTREAM LAKE SUPERIOR WATER WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM LAKE
SNOW PRODUCTION...AND IMPACTING MAINLY NW AND N CENTRAL LWR
MICHIGAN ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. THESE AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO OF NEW SNOW TODAY...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUING TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, WILL KEEP ALL WINTER WX
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THRU THE MORNING. CAA HAS COMMENCED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 20S HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
TEENS...AND EXPECT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -20. STAY
WARM FOLKS!
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
ANOTHER FORECAST...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAYS DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS
WEATHER STILL IMPACTING OUR AREA...WITH ARCTIC FRONT MAKING STEADY
SOUTHEAST PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS STILL
A`BLOWING...BUT NOTHING EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WITH CORE OF MID LEVEL UPWARD QG SUPPORT ASSISTING FRONTAL
DRIVEN CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE SUCH. LAKE PROCESSES REALLY STARTING TO
RAMP UP ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS NOTED BY KMQT AND MONTREAL RIVER
RADARS AS WELL AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP MID LEVEL GYRE DRIVING
ALL THE ABOVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF HUDSON BAY...WITH DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ON ITS BACKSIDE DIVING RIGHT FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. LATEST HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS NEGATIVE 20C H8
AIR ALREADY DIGGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SIMPLY NOTHING TO
STOP AS IT SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FALL OUT OF THE
ABOVE...WITH HIGHER IMPACT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND LAKE INDUCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THE MAIN PRIORITY.
SYNOPTIC SNOWS GIVE WAY TO MORE MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES
HEADING THROUGH TODAY AS ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS STAGE RIGHT BY SUNRISE.
INTENSE CAA CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AS H8
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE NEGATIVE MIDDLE 20S CELSIUS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ESSENTIALLY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DECENT MOISTURE
PROFILES AND INVERSION LEVELS UP THROUGH H7 SUPPORTING GOOD LAKE
CONTRIBUTION. CONDITIONS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR LOOK QUITE INTERESTING
INDEED...WITH NARROWING OF OPEN WATER CHANNEL OVER THE CENTER PART
OF THE LAKE RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. TRENDS
SUPPORT THIS ENHANCED BAND SETTING UP EARLY THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY TARGETING LUCE COUNTY...PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR WESTERN
MACKINAC AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. LOSS OF DGZ FAVORS LOW SNOW/LIQUID
RATIOS...HELPING KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL TENTATIVELY HAVE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS...TAPERING AMOUNTS QUICKLY AS ONE
HEADS EAST. FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BAND LOOKS TO
SPILL SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST LOWER...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN ICE COVER WILL TAKE ITS TOLL ON SNOWFALL INTENSITY.
OTHERWISE...TYPICAL MULTI-BANDED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAVORED
AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES (THAT
SMALL NON-FLUFF PRODUCING FLAKE THING) OFFSETTING GOOD
THERMODYNAMICS. CAN SEE A FEW INCHES AT MOST WHERE BANDS REMAIN MOST
PERSISTENT. DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO RELATIVELY
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...CONTINUING THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL RESULT...WITH PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWN FROM EARLY MORNING READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...WITH READINGS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR
NORTHEAST EAST UPPER MICHIGAN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL RUN IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...PUSHING THE NEGATIVE LOWER
20S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HARSH WINTER DAY INDEED!
AS FOR HEADLINES: SNOW AMOUNTS/WIND CHILL VALUES DEFINITELY DO NOT
JUSTIFY AN EXTENSION OF CURRENT HEADLINES INTO TODAY. THAT
SAID...HIGH IMPACT EVENT YESTERDAY/OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUATION OF SNOW-COVERED ROADS...WITH SOME LIKELY NEARLY
IMPASSABLE IN EXPOSED AREAS. FALLING PIXIE DUST SNOWS WILL ONLY ADD
TO THE LOW VISIBILITY PRODUCED BY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALREADY ON
THE GROUND. DON`T WANT TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION ALL IS CLEAR BY
DROPPING THE HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HARDER HIT AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY
(DOWNGRADING THOSE IN WARNING) THROUGH THIS MORNING. EASTWARD
DISPLACED LAKE SUPERIOR CONVERGENCE BAND AND/OR BETTER THAN
ANTICIPATED LAKE SNOWS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MAY RESULT IN FURTHER
EXTENSIONS BY THE DAY CREW.
TONIGHT...LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE...ALBEIT AT A LIGHTER INTENSITY GIVEN
LOSS OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS. MAY SEE
SOME LINGERING BETTER SNOWS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER UNDER REMNANT
CONVERGENCE AXIS THIS EVENING...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD NOT ADD UP TO
TOO MUCH. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT WINDS...
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY ENTERS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF MICHIGAN. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I280) WILL DEVELOP FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY MORNING AS WAA PATTERN SETS UP AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THRU THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK THRU LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY
EVENING...PUSHING EAST OF MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN. APPEARS THAT VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA
WILL SEE SOME SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL BE A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. N/NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW CENTER WILL TARGET OUR SW CWA ALONG AND WEST OF US-131
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BOOST
SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EASTWARD AWAY FROM MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY...
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY A W/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIME.
CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE
TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS...NAMELY NW CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND NW LWR
MICHIGAN WEST OF I-75. HOWEVER...THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND SOME PLACES MAY VERY WELL NOT WARM
INTO POSITIVE NUMBERS. THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL NOT SUPPORT LARGE
FLAKE GROWTH...SO ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR (I.E. UP TO 2 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE
24 HOUR PERIOD).
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE SWINGS THRU NRN MICHIGAN ALONG THE
BASE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT TO
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT EVENT. NARROW/FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
QUICKLY PASS THRU MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKING TO THE SW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING SLIDES EAST AND IS GENERALLY
REPLACED WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE ONE GLANCING BLOW
FROM AN UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE TEENS...WHILE REDIRECTING
FOCUS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE STRAITS AND THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES. OUR ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SNOW ON THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AGAIN...THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE SW ON FRIDAY. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO -10 TO -12 C...
PRODUCING VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THUS VERY SMALL CHANCES OF
SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PLN/TVC/MBL WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
STRONG CAA WILL LEAD TO GALE PRODUCING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS BACK AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ015-
019>021-026>028-033.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
MARINE...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1103 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
SUNDAY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING MACKINAC COUNTY AND SOME OF THE NORTHWEST
LOWER COUNTIES. NOT A TON OF SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (2-4
INCHES WESTERN MACKINAC...1-3 INCHES CENTERED AROUND
ANTRIM/KALKASKA COUNTIES NORTHWEST LOWER)...BUT STILL BLOWING
AROUND A BIT SO EXTENDING THE HEADLINE IS THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET
(AND AMATEUR SECOND-GUESSING) AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/MOST OF NORTHWEST LOWER. ICE COVER
WEST OF THE STRAITS HAVING AN IMPACT WITH A STRIPE OF SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EXTENDING TOWARD THUNDER BAY. SO
HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS WHERE IT IS
NOT SNOWING. BEST SNOW SHOWERS FOCUSED TOWARD GRAND MARAIS WHERE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG LAKE INDUCED THERMAL RIDGE
MAXIMIZING CONVERGENCE...THIS BAND IS CONNECTING TO BEST SNOW
BANDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE MANITOU ISLANDS AND BEAVER
ISLAND...WHICH IS IMPACTING THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY. WILL
BE EVALUATING CURRENT HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WHICH ARE
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 16Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A GUSTY NW
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY EXITING EAST OUT OUR CWA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 15
KTS ARE PUSHING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND INTO N CENTRAL
AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN ATTM. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO MORE OF A TRUE NW FLOW
PATTERN...IMPACTING MAINLY WRN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES
WHERE OPEN UPSTREAM LAKE SUPERIOR WATER WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM LAKE
SNOW PRODUCTION...AND IMPACTING MAINLY NW AND N CENTRAL LWR
MICHIGAN ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. THESE AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO OF NEW SNOW TODAY...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUING TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, WILL KEEP ALL WINTER WX
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THRU THE MORNING. CAA HAS COMMENCED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 20S HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
TEENS...AND EXPECT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -20. STAY
WARM FOLKS!
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
ANOTHER FORECAST...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAYS DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS
WEATHER STILL IMPACTING OUR AREA...WITH ARCTIC FRONT MAKING STEADY
SOUTHEAST PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS STILL
A`BLOWING...BUT NOTHING EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WITH CORE OF MID LEVEL UPWARD QG SUPPORT ASSISTING FRONTAL
DRIVEN CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE SUCH. LAKE PROCESSES REALLY STARTING TO
RAMP UP ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS NOTED BY KMQT AND MONTREAL RIVER
RADARS AS WELL AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP MID LEVEL GYRE DRIVING
ALL THE ABOVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF HUDSON BAY...WITH DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ON ITS BACKSIDE DIVING RIGHT FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. LATEST HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS NEGATIVE 20C H8
AIR ALREADY DIGGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SIMPLY NOTHING TO
STOP AS IT SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FALL OUT OF THE
ABOVE...WITH HIGHER IMPACT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND LAKE INDUCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THE MAIN PRIORITY.
SYNOPTIC SNOWS GIVE WAY TO MORE MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES
HEADING THROUGH TODAY AS ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS STAGE RIGHT BY SUNRISE.
INTENSE CAA CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AS H8
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE NEGATIVE MIDDLE 20S CELSIUS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ESSENTIALLY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DECENT MOISTURE
PROFILES AND INVERSION LEVELS UP THROUGH H7 SUPPORTING GOOD LAKE
CONTRIBUTION. CONDITIONS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR LOOK QUITE INTERESTING
INDEED...WITH NARROWING OF OPEN WATER CHANNEL OVER THE CENTER PART
OF THE LAKE RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. TRENDS
SUPPORT THIS ENHANCED BAND SETTING UP EARLY THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY TARGETING LUCE COUNTY...PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR WESTERN
MACKINAC AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. LOSS OF DGZ FAVORS LOW SNOW/LIQUID
RATIOS...HELPING KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL TENTATIVELY HAVE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS...TAPERING AMOUNTS QUICKLY AS ONE
HEADS EAST. FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BAND LOOKS TO
SPILL SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST LOWER...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN ICE COVER WILL TAKE ITS TOLL ON SNOWFALL INTENSITY.
OTHERWISE...TYPICAL MULTI-BANDED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAVORED
AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES (THAT
SMALL NON-FLUFF PRODUCING FLAKE THING) OFFSETTING GOOD
THERMODYNAMICS. CAN SEE A FEW INCHES AT MOST WHERE BANDS REMAIN MOST
PERSISTENT. DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO RELATIVELY
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...CONTINUING THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL RESULT...WITH PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWN FROM EARLY MORNING READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...WITH READINGS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR
NORTHEAST EAST UPPER MICHIGAN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL RUN IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...PUSHING THE NEGATIVE LOWER
20S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HARSH WINTER DAY INDEED!
AS FOR HEADLINES: SNOW AMOUNTS/WIND CHILL VALUES DEFINITELY DO NOT
JUSTIFY AN EXTENSION OF CURRENT HEADLINES INTO TODAY. THAT
SAID...HIGH IMPACT EVENT YESTERDAY/OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUATION OF SNOW-COVERED ROADS...WITH SOME LIKELY NEARLY
IMPASSABLE IN EXPOSED AREAS. FALLING PIXIE DUST SNOWS WILL ONLY ADD
TO THE LOW VISIBILITY PRODUCED BY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALREADY ON
THE GROUND. DON`T WANT TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION ALL IS CLEAR BY
DROPPING THE HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HARDER HIT AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY
(DOWNGRADING THOSE IN WARNING) THROUGH THIS MORNING. EASTWARD
DISPLACED LAKE SUPERIOR CONVERGENCE BAND AND/OR BETTER THAN
ANTICIPATED LAKE SNOWS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MAY RESULT IN FURTHER
EXTENSIONS BY THE DAY CREW.
TONIGHT...LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE...ALBEIT AT A LIGHTER INTENSITY GIVEN
LOSS OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS. MAY SEE
SOME LINGERING BETTER SNOWS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER UNDER REMNANT
CONVERGENCE AXIS THIS EVENING...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD NOT ADD UP TO
TOO MUCH. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT WINDS...
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY ENTERS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF MICHIGAN. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I280) WILL DEVELOP FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY MORNING AS WAA PATTERN SETS UP AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THRU THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK THRU LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY
EVENING...PUSHING EAST OF MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN. APPEARS THAT VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA
WILL SEE SOME SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL BE A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. N/NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW CENTER WILL TARGET OUR SW CWA ALONG AND WEST OF US-131
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BOOST
SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EASTWARD AWAY FROM MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY...
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY A W/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIME.
CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE
TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS...NAMELY NW CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND NW LWR
MICHIGAN WEST OF I-75. HOWEVER...THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND SOME PLACES MAY VERY WELL NOT WARM
INTO POSITIVE NUMBERS. THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL NOT SUPPORT LARGE
FLAKE GROWTH...SO ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR (I.E. UP TO 2 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE
24 HOUR PERIOD).
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE SWINGS THRU NRN MICHIGAN ALONG THE
BASE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT TO
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT EVENT. NARROW/FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
QUICKLY PASS THRU MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKING TO THE SW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING SLIDES EAST AND IS GENERALLY
REPLACED WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE ONE GLANCING BLOW
FROM AN UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE TEENS...WHILE REDIRECTING
FOCUS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE STRAITS AND THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES. OUR ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SNOW ON THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AGAIN...THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE SW ON FRIDAY. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO -10 TO -12 C...
PRODUCING VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THUS VERY SMALL CHANCES OF
SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FREQUENTLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR WITHIN THESE
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES TONIGHT AS NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS AND SHIFT TO
THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
STRONG CAA WILL LEAD TO GALE PRODUCING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS BACK AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ015-
019>021-026>028-033.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1011 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
SUNDAY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/MOST OF NORTHWEST LOWER. ICE COVER
WEST OF THE STRAITS HAVING AN IMPACT WITH A STRIPE OF SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EXTENDING TOWARD THUNDER BAY. SO
HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS WHERE IT IS
NOT SNOWING. BEST SNOW SHOWERS FOCUSED TOWARD GRAND MARAIS WHERE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG LAKE INDUCED THERMAL RIDGE
MAXIMIZING CONVERGENCE...THIS BAND IS CONNECTING TO BEST SNOW
BANDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE MANITOU ISLANDS AND BEAVER
ISLAND...WHICH IS IMPACTING THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY. WILL
BE EVALUATING CURRENT HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WHICH ARE
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 16Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A GUSTY NW
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY EXITING EAST OUT OUR CWA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 15
KTS ARE PUSHING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND INTO N CENTRAL
AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN ATTM. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO MORE OF A TRUE NW FLOW
PATTERN...IMPACTING MAINLY WRN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES
WHERE OPEN UPSTREAM LAKE SUPERIOR WATER WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM LAKE
SNOW PRODUCTION...AND IMPACTING MAINLY NW AND N CENTRAL LWR
MICHIGAN ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. THESE AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO OF NEW SNOW TODAY...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUING TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, WILL KEEP ALL WINTER WX
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THRU THE MORNING. CAA HAS COMMENCED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 20S HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
TEENS...AND EXPECT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -20. STAY
WARM FOLKS!
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
ANOTHER FORECAST...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAYS DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS
WEATHER STILL IMPACTING OUR AREA...WITH ARCTIC FRONT MAKING STEADY
SOUTHEAST PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS STILL
A`BLOWING...BUT NOTHING EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WITH CORE OF MID LEVEL UPWARD QG SUPPORT ASSISTING FRONTAL
DRIVEN CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE SUCH. LAKE PROCESSES REALLY STARTING TO
RAMP UP ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS NOTED BY KMQT AND MONTREAL RIVER
RADARS AS WELL AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP MID LEVEL GYRE DRIVING
ALL THE ABOVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF HUDSON BAY...WITH DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ON ITS BACKSIDE DIVING RIGHT FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. LATEST HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS NEGATIVE 20C H8
AIR ALREADY DIGGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SIMPLY NOTHING TO
STOP AS IT SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FALL OUT OF THE
ABOVE...WITH HIGHER IMPACT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND LAKE INDUCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THE MAIN PRIORITY.
SYNOPTIC SNOWS GIVE WAY TO MORE MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES
HEADING THROUGH TODAY AS ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS STAGE RIGHT BY SUNRISE.
INTENSE CAA CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AS H8
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE NEGATIVE MIDDLE 20S CELSIUS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ESSENTIALLY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DECENT MOISTURE
PROFILES AND INVERSION LEVELS UP THROUGH H7 SUPPORTING GOOD LAKE
CONTRIBUTION. CONDITIONS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR LOOK QUITE INTERESTING
INDEED...WITH NARROWING OF OPEN WATER CHANNEL OVER THE CENTER PART
OF THE LAKE RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. TRENDS
SUPPORT THIS ENHANCED BAND SETTING UP EARLY THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY TARGETING LUCE COUNTY...PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR WESTERN
MACKINAC AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. LOSS OF DGZ FAVORS LOW SNOW/LIQUID
RATIOS...HELPING KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL TENTATIVELY HAVE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS...TAPERING AMOUNTS QUICKLY AS ONE
HEADS EAST. FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BAND LOOKS TO
SPILL SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST LOWER...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN ICE COVER WILL TAKE ITS TOLL ON SNOWFALL INTENSITY.
OTHERWISE...TYPICAL MULTI-BANDED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAVORED
AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES (THAT
SMALL NON-FLUFF PRODUCING FLAKE THING) OFFSETTING GOOD
THERMODYNAMICS. CAN SEE A FEW INCHES AT MOST WHERE BANDS REMAIN MOST
PERSISTENT. DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO RELATIVELY
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...CONTINUING THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL RESULT...WITH PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWN FROM EARLY MORNING READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...WITH READINGS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR
NORTHEAST EAST UPPER MICHIGAN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL RUN IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...PUSHING THE NEGATIVE LOWER
20S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HARSH WINTER DAY INDEED!
AS FOR HEADLINES: SNOW AMOUNTS/WIND CHILL VALUES DEFINITELY DO NOT
JUSTIFY AN EXTENSION OF CURRENT HEADLINES INTO TODAY. THAT
SAID...HIGH IMPACT EVENT YESTERDAY/OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUATION OF SNOW-COVERED ROADS...WITH SOME LIKELY NEARLY
IMPASSABLE IN EXPOSED AREAS. FALLING PIXIE DUST SNOWS WILL ONLY ADD
TO THE LOW VISIBILITY PRODUCED BY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALREADY ON
THE GROUND. DON`T WANT TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION ALL IS CLEAR BY
DROPPING THE HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HARDER HIT AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY
(DOWNGRADING THOSE IN WARNING) THROUGH THIS MORNING. EASTWARD
DISPLACED LAKE SUPERIOR CONVERGENCE BAND AND/OR BETTER THAN
ANTICIPATED LAKE SNOWS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MAY RESULT IN FURTHER
EXTENSIONS BY THE DAY CREW.
TONIGHT...LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE...ALBEIT AT A LIGHTER INTENSITY GIVEN
LOSS OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS. MAY SEE
SOME LINGERING BETTER SNOWS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER UNDER REMNANT
CONVERGENCE AXIS THIS EVENING...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD NOT ADD UP TO
TOO MUCH. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT WINDS...
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY ENTERS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF MICHIGAN. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I280) WILL DEVELOP FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY MORNING AS WAA PATTERN SETS UP AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THRU THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK THRU LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY
EVENING...PUSHING EAST OF MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN. APPEARS THAT VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA
WILL SEE SOME SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL BE A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. N/NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW CENTER WILL TARGET OUR SW CWA ALONG AND WEST OF US-131
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BOOST
SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EASTWARD AWAY FROM MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY...
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY A W/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIME.
CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE
TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS...NAMELY NW CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND NW LWR
MICHIGAN WEST OF I-75. HOWEVER...THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND SOME PLACES MAY VERY WELL NOT WARM
INTO POSITIVE NUMBERS. THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL NOT SUPPORT LARGE
FLAKE GROWTH...SO ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR (I.E. UP TO 2 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE
24 HOUR PERIOD).
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE SWINGS THRU NRN MICHIGAN ALONG THE
BASE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT TO
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT EVENT. NARROW/FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
QUICKLY PASS THRU MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKING TO THE SW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING SLIDES EAST AND IS GENERALLY
REPLACED WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE ONE GLANCING BLOW
FROM AN UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE TEENS...WHILE REDIRECTING
FOCUS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE STRAITS AND THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES. OUR ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SNOW ON THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AGAIN...THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE SW ON FRIDAY. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO -10 TO -12 C...
PRODUCING VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THUS VERY SMALL CHANCES OF
SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FREQUENTLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR WITHIN THESE
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES TONIGHT AS NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS AND SHIFT TO
THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
STRONG CAA WILL LEAD TO GALE PRODUCING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS BACK AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008-
015>017-019>022-025>028-031>033.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
635 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
SUNDAY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A GUSTY NW
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY EXITING EAST OUT OUR CWA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 15
KTS ARE PUSHING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND INTO N CENTRAL
AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN ATTM. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO MORE OF A TRUE NW FLOW
PATTERN...IMPACTING MAINLY WRN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES
WHERE OPEN UPSTREAM LAKE SUPERIOR WATER WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM LAKE
SNOW PRODUCTION...AND IMPACTING MAINLY NW AND N CENTRAL LWR
MICHIGAN ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. THESE AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO OF NEW SNOW TODAY...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUING TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, WILL KEEP ALL WINTER WX
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THRU THE MORNING. CAA HAS COMMENCED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 20S HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
TEENS...AND EXPECT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -20. STAY
WARM FOLKS!
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
ANOTHER FORECAST...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAYS DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS
WEATHER STILL IMPACTING OUR AREA...WITH ARCTIC FRONT MAKING STEADY
SOUTHEAST PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS STILL
A`BLOWING...BUT NOTHING EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WITH CORE OF MID LEVEL UPWARD QG SUPPORT ASSISTING FRONTAL
DRIVEN CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE SUCH. LAKE PROCESSES REALLY STARTING TO
RAMP UP ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS NOTED BY KMQT AND MONTREAL RIVER
RADARS AS WELL AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP MID LEVEL GYRE DRIVING
ALL THE ABOVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF HUDSON BAY...WITH DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ON ITS BACKSIDE DIVING RIGHT FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. LATEST HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS NEGATIVE 20C H8
AIR ALREADY DIGGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SIMPLY NOTHING TO
STOP AS IT SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FALL OUT OF THE
ABOVE...WITH HIGHER IMPACT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND LAKE INDUCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THE MAIN PRIORITY.
SYNOPTIC SNOWS GIVE WAY TO MORE MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES
HEADING THROUGH TODAY AS ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS STAGE RIGHT BY SUNRISE.
INTENSE CAA CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AS H8
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE NEGATIVE MIDDLE 20S CELSIUS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ESSENTIALLY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DECENT MOISTURE
PROFILES AND INVERSION LEVELS UP THROUGH H7 SUPPORTING GOOD LAKE
CONTRIBUTION. CONDITIONS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR LOOK QUITE INTERESTING
INDEED...WITH NARROWING OF OPEN WATER CHANNEL OVER THE CENTER PART
OF THE LAKE RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. TRENDS
SUPPORT THIS ENHANCED BAND SETTING UP EARLY THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY TARGETING LUCE COUNTY...PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR WESTERN
MACKINAC AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. LOSS OF DGZ FAVORS LOW SNOW/LIQUID
RATIOS...HELPING KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL TENTATIVELY HAVE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS...TAPERING AMOUNTS QUICKLY AS ONE
HEADS EAST. FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BAND LOOKS TO
SPILL SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST LOWER...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN ICE COVER WILL TAKE ITS TOLL ON SNOWFALL INTENSITY.
OTHERWISE...TYPICAL MULTI-BANDED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAVORED
AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES (THAT
SMALL NON-FLUFF PRODUCING FLAKE THING) OFFSETTING GOOD
THERMODYNAMICS. CAN SEE A FEW INCHES AT MOST WHERE BANDS REMAIN MOST
PERSISTENT. DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO RELATIVELY
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...CONTINUING THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL RESULT...WITH PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWN FROM EARLY MORNING READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...WITH READINGS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR
NORTHEAST EAST UPPER MICHIGAN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL RUN IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...PUSHING THE NEGATIVE LOWER
20S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HARSH WINTER DAY INDEED!
AS FOR HEADLINES: SNOW AMOUNTS/WIND CHILL VALUES DEFINITELY DO NOT
JUSTIFY AN EXTENSION OF CURRENT HEADLINES INTO TODAY. THAT
SAID...HIGH IMPACT EVENT YESTERDAY/OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUATION OF SNOW-COVERED ROADS...WITH SOME LIKELY NEARLY
IMPASSABLE IN EXPOSED AREAS. FALLING PIXIE DUST SNOWS WILL ONLY ADD
TO THE LOW VISIBILITY PRODUCED BY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALREADY ON
THE GROUND. DON`T WANT TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION ALL IS CLEAR BY
DROPPING THE HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HARDER HIT AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY
(DOWNGRADING THOSE IN WARNING) THROUGH THIS MORNING. EASTWARD
DISPLACED LAKE SUPERIOR CONVERGENCE BAND AND/OR BETTER THAN
ANTICIPATED LAKE SNOWS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MAY RESULT IN FURTHER
EXTENSIONS BY THE DAY CREW.
TONIGHT...LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE...ALBEIT AT A LIGHTER INTENSITY GIVEN
LOSS OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS. MAY SEE
SOME LINGERING BETTER SNOWS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER UNDER REMNANT
CONVERGENCE AXIS THIS EVENING...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD NOT ADD UP TO
TOO MUCH. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT WINDS...
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY ENTERS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF MICHIGAN. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I280) WILL DEVELOP FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY MORNING AS WAA PATTERN SETS UP AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THRU THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK THRU LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY
EVENING...PUSHING EAST OF MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN. APPEARS THAT VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA
WILL SEE SOME SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL BE A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. N/NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW CENTER WILL TARGET OUR SW CWA ALONG AND WEST OF US-131
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BOOST
SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EASTWARD AWAY FROM MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY...
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY A W/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIME.
CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE
TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS...NAMELY NW CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND NW LWR
MICHIGAN WEST OF I-75. HOWEVER...THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND SOME PLACES MAY VERY WELL NOT WARM
INTO POSITIVE NUMBERS. THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL NOT SUPPORT LARGE
FLAKE GROWTH...SO ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR (I.E. UP TO 2 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE
24 HOUR PERIOD).
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE SWINGS THRU NRN MICHIGAN ALONG THE
BASE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT TO
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT EVENT. NARROW/FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
QUICKLY PASS THRU MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKING TO THE SW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING SLIDES EAST AND IS GENERALLY
REPLACED WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE ONE GLANCING BLOW
FROM AN UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE TEENS...WHILE REDIRECTING
FOCUS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE STRAITS AND THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES. OUR ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SNOW ON THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AGAIN...THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE SW ON FRIDAY. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO -10 TO -12 C...
PRODUCING VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THUS VERY SMALL CHANCES OF
SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FREQUENTLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR WITHIN THESE
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES TONIGHT AS NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS AND SHIFT TO
THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
STRONG CAA WILL LEAD TO GALE PRODUCING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS BACK AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008-
015>017-019>022-025>028-031>033.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
SUNDAY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
ANOTHER FORECAST...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAYS DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS
WEATHER STILL IMPACTING OUR AREA...WITH ARCTIC FRONT MAKING STEADY
SOUTHEAST PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS STILL
A`BLOWING...BUT NOTHING EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WITH CORE OF MID LEVEL UPWARD QG SUPPORT ASSISTING FRONTAL
DRIVEN CONVERGENCE TO DRIVE SUCH. LAKE PROCESSES REALLY STARTING TO
RAMP UP ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS NOTED BY KMQT AND MONTREAL RIVER
RADARS AS WELL AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP MID LEVEL GYRE DRIVING
ALL THE ABOVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF HUDSON BAY...WITH DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ON ITS BACKSIDE DIVING RIGHT FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. LATEST HIGH RES RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS NEGATIVE 20C H8
AIR ALREADY DIGGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SIMPLY NOTHING TO
STOP AS IT SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FALL OUT OF THE
ABOVE...WITH HIGHER IMPACT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND LAKE INDUCED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THE MAIN PRIORITY.
SYNOPTIC SNOWS GIVE WAY TO MORE MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES
HEADING THROUGH TODAY AS ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS STAGE RIGHT BY SUNRISE.
INTENSE CAA CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AS H8
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE NEGATIVE MIDDLE 20S CELSIUS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ESSENTIALLY LOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DECENT MOISTURE
PROFILES AND INVERSION LEVELS UP THROUGH H7 SUPPORTING GOOD LAKE
CONTRIBUTION. CONDITIONS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR LOOK QUITE INTERESTING
INDEED...WITH NARROWING OF OPEN WATER CHANNEL OVER THE CENTER PART
OF THE LAKE RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. TRENDS
SUPPORT THIS ENHANCED BAND SETTING UP EARLY THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY TARGETING LUCE COUNTY...PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR WESTERN
MACKINAC AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. LOSS OF DGZ FAVORS LOW SNOW/LIQUID
RATIOS...HELPING KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL TENTATIVELY HAVE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS...TAPERING AMOUNTS QUICKLY AS ONE
HEADS EAST. FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR BAND LOOKS TO
SPILL SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST LOWER...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN ICE COVER WILL TAKE ITS TOLL ON SNOWFALL INTENSITY.
OTHERWISE...TYPICAL MULTI-BANDED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAVORED
AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES (THAT
SMALL NON-FLUFF PRODUCING FLAKE THING) OFFSETTING GOOD
THERMODYNAMICS. CAN SEE A FEW INCHES AT MOST WHERE BANDS REMAIN MOST
PERSISTENT. DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO RELATIVELY
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...CONTINUING THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL RESULT...WITH PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWN FROM EARLY MORNING READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...WITH READINGS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR
NORTHEAST EAST UPPER MICHIGAN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL RUN IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...PUSHING THE NEGATIVE LOWER
20S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HARSH WINTER DAY INDEED!
AS FOR HEADLINES: SNOW AMOUNTS/WIND CHILL VALUES DEFINITELY DO NOT
JUSTIFY AN EXTENSION OF CURRENT HEADLINES INTO TODAY. THAT
SAID...HIGH IMPACT EVENT YESTERDAY/OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUATION OF SNOW-COVERED ROADS...WITH SOME LIKELY NEARLY
IMPASSABLE IN EXPOSED AREAS. FALLING PIXIE DUST SNOWS WILL ONLY ADD
TO THE LOW VISIBILITY PRODUCED BY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALREADY ON
THE GROUND. DON`T WANT TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION ALL IS CLEAR BY
DROPPING THE HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HARDER HIT AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY
(DOWNGRADING THOSE IN WARNING) THROUGH THIS MORNING. EASTWARD
DISPLACED LAKE SUPERIOR CONVERGENCE BAND AND/OR BETTER THAN
ANTICIPATED LAKE SNOWS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MAY RESULT IN FURTHER
EXTENSIONS BY THE DAY CREW.
TONIGHT...LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE...ALBEIT AT A LIGHTER INTENSITY GIVEN
LOSS OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS. MAY SEE
SOME LINGERING BETTER SNOWS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER UNDER REMNANT
CONVERGENCE AXIS THIS EVENING...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD NOT ADD UP TO
TOO MUCH. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT WINDS...
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY ENTERS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF MICHIGAN. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I280) WILL DEVELOP FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY MORNING AS WAA PATTERN SETS UP AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THRU THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK THRU LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY
EVENING...PUSHING EAST OF MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN. APPEARS THAT VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA
WILL SEE SOME SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL BE A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. N/NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW CENTER WILL TARGET OUR SW CWA ALONG AND WEST OF US-131
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BOOST
SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EASTWARD AWAY FROM MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY...
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY A W/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIME.
CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE
TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS...NAMELY NW CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND NW LWR
MICHIGAN WEST OF I-75. HOWEVER...THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND SOME PLACES MAY VERY WELL NOT WARM
INTO POSITIVE NUMBERS. THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL NOT SUPPORT LARGE
FLAKE GROWTH...SO ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR (I.E. UP TO 2 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE
24 HOUR PERIOD).
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE SWINGS THRU NRN MICHIGAN ALONG THE
BASE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT TO
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT EVENT. NARROW/FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
QUICKLY PASS THRU MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKING TO THE SW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING SLIDES EAST AND IS GENERALLY
REPLACED WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE ONE GLANCING BLOW
FROM AN UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE TEENS...WHILE REDIRECTING
FOCUS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE STRAITS AND THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES. OUR ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SNOW ON THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AGAIN...THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE SW ON FRIDAY. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO -10 TO -12 C...
PRODUCING VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THUS VERY SMALL CHANCES OF
SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
IFR TONIGHT IN SN...SOME IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY.
SNOW CONTINUES IN WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...AND WILL UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
THEN. BEHIND THE FRONT...QUICK TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NEAR LAKE MI...WITH TVC GETTING THE WORST OF IT ON SATURDAY. OTHER
SITES WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR. WINDS VEER NW AND INCREASE
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH BLSN RETURNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
STRONG CAA WILL LEAD TO GALE PRODUCING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS BACK AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008-
015>017-019>022-025>028-031>033.
LH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1243 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH OR MORE WILL BECOME LIKELY. THIS WIND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH RECENT SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BECOME WORSE THIS AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT ON
SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA
ALONG WITH MORE WIND AND COLD AIR. THIS COULD PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF
IMPACT TO THE AREA WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. MORE
COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT WILL RULE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE LAKE ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW
SNOW EVENT IS STARTING TO INCREASE AND SHOULD BE GOING STRONG
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM. THERE MAY BE A SORT OF LULL FOR A FEW HOURS
THEN THE MORE SYNOPTIC PART OF THE STORM KICKS IN AROUND 7 PM AND
SHOULD GO TILL AROUND 6 AM. IT DURING THAT TIME MOST OF THE
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR.
AS OF 10 AM WE HAVE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW OVER MOST OF
OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AND BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW NORTH OF
THERE. AS THE WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE SO I
EXPECT OVERALL THE WIND CHILLS TO WARM SOME...BEING IN THE 0 TO 10
BELOW RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOW THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES WILL HAVE 50
TO 55 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER (3000 FT IN DEPTH) FROM 1 PM TILL 5
PM THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH RANGE MKG...GRR AND
BIV HAVE VISIBILITIES UNDER 3 MILES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ONCE
THE SNOW RATES INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR
40 MPH WE WILL BE SEEING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF WE NEED TO UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING...
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT STILL SEEMS TO ME WE CAN GO AHEAD WITH THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE.
ONE OTHER ISSUE TO ADDRESS LATER IS THE LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THE
STORM SATURDAY. I COULD SEE EXPANDED THE WARNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF US-131.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVENT EXPECTED FOR
TODAY INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES
TO THE HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA AS
CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.
THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN THIS
MORNING. RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT HAS DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES AS THE
UPPER JET IS SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. CLOUDS HOLDING IN THUS FAR HAVE KEPT TEMPS AND RESULTING WIND
CHILLS IN CHECK. WE DO EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS CLEARING FROM THE S WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE SE WITH THE
FLOW GOING SW. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP AND DRIVE THE WIND CHILLS
DOWN THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND REALLY GET CRANKING
AROUND MID MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR CENTERED
AROUND 18Z +/- A COUPLE OF HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. THESE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WHILE
LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS FALLING THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING. HOW MUCH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SNOW
STARTS FALLING IS UNCERTAIN. THIS IS ONE REASON WE ARE HOLDING OFF
ON A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP UP
NORTH WITH THE BETTER WINDS STILL IN PLACE...SO THE WARNING AREA UP
NORTH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED A BIT CLOSER.
THE WORST BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL OCCUR WHILE THE WINDS ARE
STILL UP THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THE SNOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SNOW PORTION OF THE EVENT WILL BE A COMBINATION OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH DELTA T/S EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS C BY THAT TIME. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
FAIRLY ROBUST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA LIKELY
DUE TO THE WINDS COMING OFF OF THE LAKE AND DUE TO THE FLOW AND THE
CONTOUR OF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
BANDS SIMILAR TO THE EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE DGZ IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HELP WITH ACCUMS. THIS
PART OF THE EVENT WILL HELP THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA SEE THE
HIGHEST ACCUMS DURING THE EVENT.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE THE CWFA WILL BE PLACED UNDER THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER JET DIVING IN WHICH WILL HELP ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE. BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE WINDS AND GUST
POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE CORE OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
THE SNOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE CWFA BY 12Z SAT...LEAVING LAKE EFFECT IN ITS WAKE. THE UPPER JET
WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
INVERSION HTS/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ACROSS THE NW AND SW
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WITH MEAN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED. LAKE
EFFECT WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS
NORTH AND WE SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD OVERHEAD. SAT NIGHT COULD
BE A COLD NIGHT INLAND WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
MORE HIGH IMPACT/HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW....AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.
SCHOOL/BUSINESS CLOSURES ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WHERE FREQUENT WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL APPEAR LIKELY AGAIN.
THE NEXT CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GRTLKS REGION ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PLACEMENT/COVERAGE OF HIGHEST SYNOPTIC SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH HOWEVER IN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF
BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
RIVAL THAT OF JANUARY 6-7 WHICH IRONICALLY WAS ALSO A MONDAY/TUESDAY
EVENT. FINE SNOWFLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG/WEST
OF HIGHWAY 131 BUT WILL STILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES AND ICY
ROAD CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LIFTS OUT... BUT MORE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS LIKELY AS CYCLONIC WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
ALSO FALL AT KMKG/KGRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES. VSBYS WILL BE LOWEST AT KMKG. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE A
LULL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. CIGS/VSBYS
WILL FALL MID EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
LITTLE QUESTION ON THE GALE WINDS FRIDAY BUT WHAT I THROUGH WE
WOULD ALSO NEED WAS A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SO I ADD THAT TO THE
HEADLINE MIX IN THE NEAR SHORE PRODUCTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
RIVERS LEVELS ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. STABLE
ICE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD
WEATHER. THE ICE JAM THREAT IS LOW AND THERE IS NO CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF ANY ICE JAMS ON THE RIVER NETWORK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ039-040-
045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1010 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH OR MORE WILL BECOME LIKELY. THIS WIND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH RECENT SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BECOME WORSE THIS AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT ON
SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA
ALONG WITH MORE WIND AND COLD AIR. THIS COULD PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF
IMPACT TO THE AREA WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. MORE
COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT WILL RULE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE LAKE ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW
SNOW EVENT IS STARTING TO INCREASE AND SHOULD BE GOING STRONG
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM. THERE MAY BE A SORT OF LULL FOR A FEW HOURS
THEN THE MORE SYNOPTIC PART OF THE STORM KICKS IN AROUND 7 PM AND
SHOULD GO TILL AROUND 6 AM. IT DURING THAT TIME MOST OF THE
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR.
AS OF 10 AM WE HAVE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW OVER MOST OF
OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AND BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW NORTH OF
THERE. AS THE WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE SO I
EXPECT OVERALL THE WIND CHILLS TO WARM SOME...BEING IN THE 0 TO 10
BELOW RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOW THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES WILL HAVE 50
TO 55 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER (3000 FT IN DEPTH) FROM 1 PM TILL 5
PM THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH RANGE MKG...GRR AND
BIV HAVE VISIBILITIES UNDER 3 MILES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ONCE
THE SNOW RATES INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR
40 MPH WE WILL BE SEEING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF WE NEED TO UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING...
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT STILL SEEMS TO ME WE CAN GO AHEAD WITH THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE.
ONE OTHER ISSUE TO ADDRESS LATER IS THE LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THE
STORM SATURDAY. I COULD SEE EXPANDED THE WARNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF US-131.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVENT EXPECTED FOR
TODAY INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES
TO THE HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA AS
CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.
THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN THIS
MORNING. RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT HAS DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES AS THE
UPPER JET IS SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. CLOUDS HOLDING IN THUS FAR HAVE KEPT TEMPS AND RESULTING WIND
CHILLS IN CHECK. WE DO EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS CLEARING FROM THE S WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE SE WITH THE
FLOW GOING SW. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP AND DRIVE THE WIND CHILLS
DOWN THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND REALLY GET CRANKING
AROUND MID MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR CENTERED
AROUND 18Z +/- A COUPLE OF HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. THESE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WHILE
LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS FALLING THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING. HOW MUCH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SNOW
STARTS FALLING IS UNCERTAIN. THIS IS ONE REASON WE ARE HOLDING OFF
ON A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP UP
NORTH WITH THE BETTER WINDS STILL IN PLACE...SO THE WARNING AREA UP
NORTH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED A BIT CLOSER.
THE WORST BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL OCCUR WHILE THE WINDS ARE
STILL UP THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THE SNOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SNOW PORTION OF THE EVENT WILL BE A COMBINATION OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH DELTA T/S EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS C BY THAT TIME. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
FAIRLY ROBUST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA LIKELY
DUE TO THE WINDS COMING OFF OF THE LAKE AND DUE TO THE FLOW AND THE
CONTOUR OF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
BANDS SIMILAR TO THE EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE DGZ IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HELP WITH ACCUMS. THIS
PART OF THE EVENT WILL HELP THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA SEE THE
HIGHEST ACCUMS DURING THE EVENT.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE THE CWFA WILL BE PLACED UNDER THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER JET DIVING IN WHICH WILL HELP ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE. BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE WINDS AND GUST
POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE CORE OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
THE SNOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE CWFA BY 12Z SAT...LEAVING LAKE EFFECT IN ITS WAKE. THE UPPER JET
WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
INVERSION HTS/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ACROSS THE NW AND SW
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WITH MEAN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED. LAKE
EFFECT WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS
NORTH AND WE SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD OVERHEAD. SAT NIGHT COULD
BE A COLD NIGHT INLAND WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
MORE HIGH IMPACT/HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW....AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.
SCHOOL/BUSINESS CLOSURES ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WHERE FREQUENT WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL APPEAR LIKELY AGAIN.
THE NEXT CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GRTLKS REGION ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PLACEMENT/COVERAGE OF HIGHEST SYNOPTIC SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH HOWEVER IN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF
BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
RIVAL THAT OF JANUARY 6-7 WHICH IRONICALLY WAS ALSO A MONDAY/TUESDAY
EVENT. FINE SNOWFLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG/WEST
OF HIGHWAY 131 BUT WILL STILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES AND ICY
ROAD CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LIFTS OUT... BUT MORE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS LIKELY AS CYCLONIC WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. WINDS
BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 23 TO 28
KNOTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS LIKELY.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING BUT
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL LIKELY TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY JUST THE MKG
AND GRR TERMINALS... WHERE AN INCREASE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS AT MKG AND GRR.
MEANWHILE SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN SNOW EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE TERMINAL
TONIGHT... WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT MKG AND GRR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
LITTLE QUESTION ON THE GALE WINDS FRIDAY BUT WHAT I THROUGH WE
WOULD ALSO NEED WAS A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SO I ADD THAT TO THE
HEADLINE MIX IN THE NEAR SHORE PRODUCTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
RIVERS LEVELS ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. STABLE
ICE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD
WEATHER. THE ICE JAM THREAT IS LOW AND THERE IS NO CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF ANY ICE JAMS ON THE RIVER NETWORK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ039-040-
045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
608 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
VERY BUSY SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH STRONG
NW WINDS RETURNING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.
STRONG WAA IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCE BY TEMPERATURES
THAT HAVE BE STEADILY RISING 2 TO 4 DEGREES PER HOUR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SINCE MIDNIGHT AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS DROPPING SE FROM NODAK/NW MN. ALTHOUGH
WE HAVE SEEN WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH AT TIMES IN WRN MN...WE
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THIS
IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT ANY BLOWABLE SNOW WAS BLOWN OUT OF THE AREA
WITH THE BLIZZARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS
OCCURRING...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...GOOD CALL
BY EARLIER SHIFTS NOT TO GO WITH ANOTHER BLIZZARD WARNING FOR LAST
NIGHT.
24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SRN CANADA HAVE
BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 30 AND 45 DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THE MPX CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY 2 TO 8 DEGS BELOW
ZERO...EVEN A 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE OF 40 DEGREES WOULD NET YOU HIGHS
OF 35 TO 40...WHICH IS WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND SW OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THESE FORECAST HIGHS MATCH
UP WELL WITH WHAT THE GEM AND ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED HIGHS HAVE FOR
TODAY...WHICH ARE THE PIECES OF GUIDANCE THAT HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
VERIFICATION THIS WINTER WHEN WE HAVE SEEN OUR OCCASIONAL WARM PUFFS
OF AIR.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST. WE HAVE SEEN A VERY NARROW BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOP WITH PRETTY HEALTHY SNOWFALL RATES /AS EVIDENCED
VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN TO 3/4SM/...BUT SNOW HAS BEEN ONLY LASTING
1 TO 2 HOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW BEING PICKED UP
AS THE BAND WORKS THROUGH. THE RAP/HRRR HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON
THE BAND THIS MORNING...SO USED THOSE MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE THIS
NARROW BAND THROUGH THE MPX CWA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE
TWIN CITIES...THIS SNOW BAND IS STILL IN STORE TO IMPACT THE METRO
BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THIS MORNING...SO WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOW MORNING
COMMUTE.
ROUND TWO OF SNOW TODAY WILL COME ABOUT 8 HOURS AFTER ROUND ONE AS
LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE HEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE MPX AREA BETWEEN 6PM AND MIDNIGHT.
HI-RES MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT PRECIP BLOSSOMING ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AROUND 21Z AND DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A REASON I MENTION PRECIP AND NOT SNOW. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW 925 MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 0Z COMING UP A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE MN RIVER AND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE SW CWA
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...IT MEANS P-TYPE IS AT
ISSUE. HAVE IT WARM ENOUGH TO GET ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF LAC QUI PARLE
AND WRN YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES...WITH A RA/SN MIX OUT TO THE MN
RIVER. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SNOW EVERYWHERE ELSE...BUT
QPF AMOUNTS AGAIN LOOK LIGHT...WITH ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY AGAIN FOR THE TWIN CITIES...THIS LIGHT SNOW
LOOKS TO START JUST IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE...THOUGH
HOPEFULLY TEMPERATURE UP CLOSE TO FREEZING WILL KEEP THINGS FLOWING
A LITTLE FASTER.
TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN...WITH NAM
BUFR SOUNDING SHOWING TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIXING AGAIN GOING OVER 40
KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE MN CWA AS CAA CREATES DEEP AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CERTAINLY WINDS LIKE THIS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...BUT DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR 3 REASONS. 1...AS WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE THIS
WINTER...THESE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MOISTEN UP THE
SNOWPACK...MAKING IT CONSIDERABLY LESS BLOWABLE. 2...AS WE SAW
OVERNIGHT...THE BLIZZARD WEDNESDAY BLEW CLEAR MOST OF THE SNOW THAT
COULD BE BLOWN AROUND AND WHAT WE ARE GETTING TODAY AND THIS EVENING
WILL NOT BE THE 25+:1 TYPE STUFF. 3...WITH A POTENTIALLY MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SITUATION SETTING UP ON SUNDAY...DID NOT WANT
TONIGHT TO LIMIT THE FOCUS ON THAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH FOR A BLIZZARD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR MN
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS
HIGH ON A DEEPENING CLIPPER MOVING FROM ND TO SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SNOW IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY
CWA WIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONE REAL INTERESTING CHANGE TONIGHT
IS THAT THE ECMWF IS NOW GENERATING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF A 700 MB LOW MOVING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL RESULT IN SNOW
SHOWERS...ADDING MORE FUEL TO THE FIRE. POPS WERE RAISED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA ON SUNDAY. THE GRIDS
ARE SET FOR A BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 55 MPH...IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE HIGHEST
ON SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 40 MPH STRETCHING FROM MONTEVIDEO TO ALBERT
LEA BY SUNDAY EVENING. COLLABORATION WITH OUR WESTERN NEIGHBORS WAS
TO HOLD OFF ON SUNDAY AT THIS POINT DUE TO WATCHES BEING ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WEST AND NORTH.
NO CHANGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO
THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE DAKOTAS. LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL BE
FROM 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL ONLY BE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. FACTOR IN THAT BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND AND WIND CHILL VALUES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE 40 TO 50 BELOW ZERO. HENCE... WIND
CHILL WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
THEN MET FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A VERY
BRUTAL PERIOD AHEAD.
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHES. SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW
ARE IN FOR THESE PERIODS. THE ECMWF IS ADAMANT THAT MORE ARCTIC
AIR WILL SURGE IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK/WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH WILL MAINLY IMPACT WRN WI...AS SNOW
REPORTS HAVE BEEN HARD TO COME BY WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES. EXPECT
A LONG BREAK IN SNOW UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE HRRR ALONG WITH
OTHER HI-RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP BREAKING OUT AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
MN AROUND 20Z OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SINK SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. 06Z TAFS HAD THIS TRENDED WELL...AND
ONLY REALLY DELAYED SNOW ONSET BY AN HOUR. CIGS ARE A BIT
PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING...AS STRONG SW WINDS ARE ALSO BRING WITH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. RAP WOULD SAY MVFR CIGS REMAIN TODAY NORTH OF
I-94...WHILE THE NAM JUST TAKES A BAND ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SNOW. GIVEN EXNTENSIVE MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN MN...WENT WITH THE
IDEA OF THE RAP...WITH THE NRN MN CIGS SLIDING SE INTO WRN WI
TODAY. HAVE TEMPO MVFR CONDS IN THE MORNING FOR THE I-94 TAFS IN
MN...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE LIGHT
SNOW STARTS TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOP. SHOULD
SEE A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. AS FOR
BLSN...COMBINATION OF BLOWABLE SNOW BLOWN AWAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY SHOULD LIMIT THE AM0UNT OF BLSN WE
SEE...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON BLSN MENTION IN TAFS.
KMSP...LOOKING LIKE MSP WILL LARGELY MISS OUT ON SNOW THIS MORNING
GIVEN LACK OF SNOW OBS MAKING INTO THE TWIN CITES. MSP WILL ALSO
BE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE CIGS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 020 FOR A TIME THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS MUCH
BETTER...WITH STRONG AGREEMENT ON ITS RETURN IN ALL GUIDANCE.
EXPECT A RAPID CLEARING THIS AS NW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS
BETWEEN 3Z AND 8Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MVFR/IFR -SN OVERNIGHT. WIND NW 10-15KTS BCMG W/SW LATE.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SN. WINDS S BECOMING NW AT 20G35KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10G15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1201 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
Going forecasts still looking pretty good for this
afternoon. Strong winds and low RH values are the primary concerns
for the FA, and area/timing of going headlines still appear to be
on the mark. Only real concern regarding sensible weather trends
is temperatures, which appear to be warming slower than initially
expected. Given the depth of the cold air that the mixing is
trying to erode we may be a bit too warm on afternoon max temps,
but given very favorable synoptic setup for a pronounced warmup am
hesitant to make too much of a downward adjustment at this time.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
The large Arctic high will continue to sink southward away from
the region today while the next frontal system begins driving
southward into the northern Plains. In between the surface
pressure gradient will tighten up as will the height field,
resulting in rather strong winds through the lower trop. The
combination of this along with mixing will produce strong and
gusty southwest winds. Both MOS values and wind gusts from the
HRRR and RAP suggest winds will meet advisory criteria across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with
wind gusts of 40 kts possible. This regime is also favorable for a
good warm-up even with the very cold start, and have highs above
the MOS guidance.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
A nw flow shortwave and attendant ULJ will dig into the area
tonight sending another cold front through the region. As has been
the case recently, strong and gusty northwest winds will accompany
the front. Large scale ascent associated with the shortwave
appears sufficient to produce an area of light snow across
northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Currently it looks like
the St. Louis region will be on the western fringe of the snow
field. I have bumped up pops in the high chance to likely category
within the aforementioned zone, and anticipate amounts from a
dusting to less than an inch. We remain in cyclonic flow and
northwest winds on Saturday with temperatures expected to remain
below average. The temperature see-saw then continues on Sunday as
the weak high pressure ridge departs quickly on Saturday night
and we are well into low-level warm advection just after midnight.
Strong warm advection on Sunday and gusty southwest-west winds
once again suggest a good warm-up with highs getting well above
normal. Enjoy the "warmth" because it is all downhill after
Sunday. The next formidable Arctic front/blast comes roaring into
the region on Sunday night and the airmass with this front is the
coldest since the early January Arctic outbreak.
A large full latitude longwave trof will continue to dominate
central and eastern NOAM through the middle of next week keeping
very cold conditions locked in across the region. The models are
finally showing signs this blocky cold pattern breaking down and by
early February suggest a negative phase of the PNA pattern will
become established.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
Strong surface winds will highlight this TAF period...with intense
SW winds this afternoon transitioning to the NW late tonight and
Saturday morning with a passage of yet another fast moving cold front.
Core of highest winds this afternoon should be along the COU/UIN
corridor, with frequent gusts in the 30-35kt range. Cloud will be
limited to the mid and high levels this afternoon (aoa 10kft), but
will lower this evening as the cold front presses into the region.
Believe much of this cloudiness will remain in the VFR cat
(3-5kft), but areas of snow clipping the Mississippi River will
produce briefly lower conditions (MVFR/IFR), primarily at UIN and
just east of STL metro.
Specifics for KSTL: Into the early evening forecast will be
dominated by SW surface winds (210-230 degrees) gusting to near
30kts along with patches of mid and high level cloudiness. Winds
will veer overnight as cold front moves in, which should also be
accompanied by ceilings lowering to the 3-5kft range. Have
continued mention of flurries for a few predawn hours, but latest
short range guidance is suggesting that bulk of the snow...and the
lowest conditions...will be occurring just northeast or east of
STL.
Truett
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
Although have made minor tweeks to winds, temps, and dewpoints/RH,
timing and area of Red Flag Warning which covers central, east
central and southeast Missouri still looks very good. If
temperatures don`t warm as much as expected a few of the eastern
fringe areas may not reach the critical RH below 25%, but at this
point, but for reasons noted in short range AFD discussion no
major adjustments made at this time.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin
MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-
St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis
MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau
MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby
MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Today: Primary focus will be on strong wind potential and critical
fire danger (see FIRE WEATHER section below).
For the umpteenth time this month, yet another strong mid level gyre
will drop south from central Canada, replacing the arctic air with
increasingly mild conditions. Surface pressures which started out at
around 1044mb at 00Z, will crash to near 1014mb by 00Z this evening.
Aches and pains alert! Incredible 30mb/24-hour pressure falls,
coupled with 50-60 knot 925mb flow, will once again set the stage
for very windy conditions across the region. As has been the case
with the last several wind events, strong vertical mixing and
downward momentum transfer will contribute to very strong gusts that
will be well above what is "typically" expected for forecast
sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph. Other than scattered mid cloud,
ample sunshine should help realize nearly maximum gust potential,
with the RAP and HRRR both suggesting widespread gusts exceeding 40
knots from late morning through mid afternoon, as the pressure wave
pushes southeast. Have collaborated a wind advisory which will run
from 10AM through 2PM across far NW MO/NE KS, and through 6PM across
most of west central/central/northeast MO into far eastern Kansas.
Despite the southwest winds, warm advection will lag quite a bit,
with most of the diurnal temperature boost coming in the 11AM-3PM
time frame. As a result, another very cold start expected this
morning with wind chills in the -5 to -10F range as the kids head to
the bus stop.
Tonight-Saturday:
Deep mixing will keep temperatures relatively mild tonight with lows
running some 20 degrees warmer than this morning. A few flurries to a
light dusting of snow could glance the far NE counties, but the bulk
of any very minor accumulations should once again fall well east of
the region as the strongest mid level ascent shifts into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Weak cyclonic flow and cloud cover beneath and intense upper jet will
lend to a challenging temperature forecast Saturday. High
temperatures will range some 15-20 degrees from the upper 20s near
Kirksville to the mid 40s across west central MO, and the gradient
magnitude varies considerably among the 00Z models.
Sunday-Sunday Night:
Low level temps will steadily warm Saturday night and early Sunday
ahead of the next arctic blast. 925mb temps could reach +10C,
suggesting that temperatures will likely reach the low-mid 50s across
all but far nrn MO before frontal passage late in the afternoon.
Definitely the mildest day in the coming week. In a reversal of
fortune so to speak, surface pressures will increase 30mb from 12Z
Sunday to 12Z Monday, coincident with a strong arctic blast trailing
yet another Canadian Clipper. Temperatures will plummet some 45 to 50
degrees from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning, and I would not be
surprised to see wind gusts again in the 30-40 mph range Sunday
evening. (Need to do some research as I cannot ever recall this
magnitude of wind in January across Missouri).
Monday-Thursday:
See no change in the overall upper flow pattern to round out the end
of the month. Above average confidence in little to no measurable
precipitation, and above average confidence in much below normal
temperatures Monday/Tuesday, then trending back toward normal
Wednesday/Thursday ahead of the next closed low in the sequence
dropping south through the Canadian Prairies.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Gusty southwest winds will continue through the day around 20 to 30
kts with gusts approaching 35 to 40 kts at times. Although winds will
gradually diminish through the evening to overnight hours expect
winds to remain around 10 to 15 kts. There will be a gradual shift
from SW to NW as a frontal passage comes through the area. By the end
of the forecast period, expect winds to be out of the NW around 15 to
25 kts, likely increasing after this forecast period. There could be
a brief period of MVFR stratus as the frontal passage occurs, but
considering how uncertain the soundings look and the brief time it
would occur, kept that period VFR for now, and will reassess as the
front approaches.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected along and south of a
St. Joseph to Carrollton to Moberly line from late morning through
mid afternoon.
Early morning observations show a very dry boundary layer in place
with dew points in the single digits below zero. Very little moderate
of this air mass is expected as temperatures steadily warm into the
upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, yielding relative humidity
values between 18 and 25%. The very dry air mass and 10-hour fuel
stick moisture of 7-8% will contribute to a very volatile setup as
southwest winds increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
Given the potential for rapid grassland fire spread, a red flag
warning remains in effect from 10AM through 8PM for the aforementioned
areas.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
WIND ADVISORY until 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ025-102.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ008-017-021>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY until 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ001>007-
011>016-020.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...Leighton
FIRE WEATHER...Bookbinder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
546 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
The large Arctic high will continue to sink southward away from
the region today while the next frontal system begins driving
southward into the northern Plains. In between the surface
pressure gradient will tighten up as will the height field,
resulting in rather strong winds through the lower trop. The
combination of this along with mixing will produce strong and
gusty southwest winds. Both MOS values and wind gusts from the
HRRR and RAP suggest winds will meet advisory criteria across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with
wind gusts of 40 kts possible. This regime is also favorable for a
good warm-up even with the very cold start, and have highs above
the MOS guidance.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
A nw flow shortwave and attendant ULJ will dig into the area
tonight sending another cold front through the region. As has been
the case recently, strong and gusty northwest winds will accompany
the front. Large scale ascent associated with the shortwave
appears sufficient to produce an area of light snow across
northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Currently it looks like
the St. Louis region will be on the western fringe of the snow
field. I have bumped up pops in the high chance to likely category
within the aforementioned zone, and anticipate amounts from a
dusting to less than an inch. We remain in cyclonic flow and
northwest winds on Saturday with temperatures expected to remain
below average. The temperature see-saw then continues on Sunday as
the weak high pressure ridge departs quickly on Saturday night
and we are well into low-level warm advection just after midnight.
Strong warm advection on Sunday and gusty southwest-west winds
once again suggest a good warm-up with highs getting well above
normal. Enjoy the "warmth" because it is all downhill after
Sunday. The next formidable Arctic front/blast comes roaring into
the region on Sunday night and the airmass with this front is the
coldest since the early January Arctic outbreak.
A large full latitude longwave trof will continue to dominate
central and eastern NOAM through the middle of next week keeping
very cold conditions locked in across the region. The models are
finally showing signs this blocky cold pattern breaking down and by
early February suggest a negative phase of the PNA pattern will
become established.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 546 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
As surface ridge moves off the south today, next system to
approach area from the north tightening the gradient. So will see
winds pickup and veer to the southwest this morning with gusts
near 35 kts at times, especially over central and northeast
Missouri as well as west central Illinois. Mid and high clouds to
be on the increase as system gets closer. Then winds to diminish
just a bit this evening before veering to the west to northwest
after 06z Saturday as frontal boundary moves through, but winds
will continue to gust to near 25kts at times. Cigs to lower to
low end vfr/high end mvfr as front moves through. Some light snow
is possible with this front, mainly along and east of Mississippi
River, so added mention to KUIN with flurries in metro area tafs.
Specifics for KSTL:
As surface ridge moves off the south today, next system to
approach area from the north tightening the gradient. So will see
winds pickup and veer to the southwest this morning with gusts
near 30 kts at times. Mid and high clouds to be on the increase as
system gets closer. Then winds to diminish just a bit by 03z
Saturday before veering to the northwest by 09z Saturday as frontal
boundary moves through, but winds will continue to gust to near
25kts at times. Cigs to lower to low end vfr as front moves
through. Some light snow is possible with this front, mainly east
of Mississippi River, so added mention of flurries in metro area
tafs.
Byrd
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
The previously coordinated and issued Red Flag Warning still
looks on target with strong and gusty southwest winds, very low
afternoon RH, and 10h fuel moisture below 9%. The only change was
to add a few more counties to the northwest of the previous area
due to warmer temps and lower RH, so now all of central, east
central, and southeast Missouri is under a Red Flag Warning.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-
Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St.
Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Today: Primary focus will be on strong wind potential and critical
fire danger (see FIRE WEATHER section below).
For the umpteenth time this month, yet another strong mid level gyre
will drop south from central Canada, replacing the arctic air with
increasingly mild conditions. Surface pressures which started out at
around 1044mb at 00Z, will crash to near 1014mb by 00Z this evening.
Aches and pains alert! Incredible 30mb/24-hour pressure falls,
coupled with 50-60 knot 925mb flow, will once again set the stage
for very windy conditions across the region. As has been the case
with the last several wind events, strong vertical mixing and
downward momentum transfer will contribute to very strong gusts that
will be well above what is "typically" expected for forecast
sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph. Other than scattered mid cloud,
ample sunshine should help realize nearly maximum gust potential,
with the RAP and HRRR both suggesting widespread gusts exceeding 40
knots from late morning through mid afternoon, as the pressure wave
pushes southeast. Have collaborated a wind advisory which will run
from 10AM through 2PM across far NW MO/NE KS, and through 6PM across
most of west central/central/northeast MO into far eastern Kansas.
Despite the southwest winds, warm advection will lag quite a bit,
with most of the diurnal temperature boost coming in the 11AM-3PM
time frame. As a result, another very cold start expected this
morning with wind chills in the -5 to -10F range as the kids head to
the bus stop.
Tonight-Saturday:
Deep mixing will keep temperatures relatively mild tonight with lows
running some 20 degrees warmer than this morning. A few flurries to a
light dusting of snow could glance the far NE counties, but the bulk
of any very minor accumulations should once again fall well east of
the region as the strongest mid level ascent shifts into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Weak cyclonic flow and cloud cover beneath and intense upper jet will
lend to a challenging temperature forecast Saturday. High
temperatures will range some 15-20 degrees from the upper 20s near
Kirksville to the mid 40s across west central MO, and the gradient
magnitude varies considerably among the 00Z models.
Sunday-Sunday Night:
Low level temps will steadily warm Saturday night and early Sunday
ahead of the next arctic blast. 925mb temps could reach +10C,
suggesting that temperatures will likely reach the low-mid 50s across
all but far nrn MO before frontal passage late in the afternoon.
Definitely the mildest day in the coming week. In a reversal of
fortune so to speak, surface pressures will increase 30mb from 12Z
Sunday to 12Z Monday, coincident with a strong arctic blast trailing
yet another Canadian Clipper. Temperatures will plummet some 45 to 50
degrees from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning, and I would not be
surprised to see wind gusts again in the 30-40 mph range Sunday
evening. (Need to do some research as I cannot ever recall this
magnitude of wind in January across Missouri).
Monday-Thursday:
See no change in the overall upper flow pattern to round out the end
of the month. Above average confidence in little to no measurable
precipitation, and above average confidence in much below normal
temperatures Monday/Tuesday, then trending back toward normal
Wednesday/Thursday ahead of the next closed low in the sequence
dropping south through the Canadian Prairies.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected along and south of a
St. Joseph to Carrollton to Moberly line from late morning through
mid afternoon.
Early morning observations show a very dry boundary layer in place
with dewpoints in the single digits below zero. Very little moderate
of this airmass is expected as temperatures steadily warm into the
upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, yielding relative humidity
values between 18 and 25%. The very dry airmass and 10-hour fuel
stick moistures of 7-8% will contribute to a very volatile setup as
southwest winds increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
Given the potential for rapid grassland fire spread, a red flag
warning remains in effect from 10AM thru 8PM for the aforementioned
areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Low level wind shear will continue for the next couple of hours (SE
50 knots at 2Kft AGL), until stronger winds begin to mix down to the
surface by mid morning. Already seeing the beginning of that with
20-25 knot gusts across NW MO.
Conservatively could see winds gust 30 to 35 knots during the late
morning and most of the afternoon, and would not be surprised to see
a few gusts in the 40 to 45 knot range, especially where favored at
MCI.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period with patches
of mid-high cloud today.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this
evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this
afternoon FOR KSZ025-102.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this
evening FOR MOZ020>022-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR MOZ008-017-021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this
afternoon FOR MOZ001>007-011>016-020.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...Bookbinder
FIRE WEATHER...Bookbinder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
425 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
The large Arctic high will continue to sink southward away from
the region today while the next frontal system begins driving
southward into the northern Plains. In between the surface
pressure gradient will tighten up as will the height field,
resulting in rather strong winds through the lower trop. The
combination of this along with mixing will produce strong and
gusty southwest winds. Both MOS values and wind gusts from the
HRRR and RAP suggest winds will meet advisory criteria across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with
wind gusts of 40 kts possible. This regime is also favorable for a
good warm-up even with the very cold start, and have highs above
the MOS guidance.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
A nw flow shortwave and attendant ULJ will dig into the area
tonight sending another cold front through the region. As has been
the case recently, strong and gusty northwest winds will accompany
the front. Large scale ascent associated with the shortwave
appears sufficient to produce an area of light snow across
northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Currently it looks like
the St. Louis region will be on the western fringe of the snow
field. I have bumped up pops in the high chance to likely category
within the aforementioned zone, and anticipate amounts from a
dusting to less than an inch. We remain in cyclonic flow and
northwest winds on Saturday with temperatures expected to remain
below average. The temperature see-saw then continues on Sunday as
the weak high pressure ridge departs quickly on Saturday night
and we are well into low-level warm advection just after midnight.
Strong warm advection on Sunday and gusty southwest-west winds
once again suggest a good warm-up with highs getting well above
normal. Enjoy the "warmth" because it is all downhill after
Sunday. The next formidable Arctic front/blast comes roaring into
the region on Sunday night and the airmass with this front is the
coldest since the early January Arctic outbreak.
A large full latitude longwave trof will continue to dominate
central and eastern NOAM through the middle of next week keeping
very cold conditions locked in across the region. The models are
finally showing signs this blocky cold pattern breaking down and by
early February suggest a negative phase of the PNA pattern will
become established.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2014
VFR fcst with sfc ridge settling south into TX tonight. Main story
will be the gusty SSW winds on Friday. Winds are in the process of
going sthrly tonight. All model guidance indicates 40 to 60 kts
of wind just a couple thousand feet off the ground. Some of this
is fcst to mix to the sfc. The pressure gradient also increases
significantly tomorrow. This means sustained wind near 20 kts with
gusts 30 to 35kts. This could lead to crosswind concerns on certain
runway configurations. Removed the mention of LLWS except at KCPS
and KSUS. Think that the threat remains marginal as the winds
aloft arrive just before mixing begins. I think there may still be
a brief window of a couple hrs as mixing is delayed due to the
location of the arpts in river valleys. Otherwise...expect an
increase in mid/high level cloudiness and continued gusty winds.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR fcst with the main concern gusty SSW winds. This will likley
become a crosswind concern later Friday morning and continuing
thru the rest of the day. Winds eventually will become NW by
Saturday morning. I removed the mention of LLWS as the window of
opportunity looks too narrow on the order of a couple hrs. The
stronger winds aloft arrive just before mixing begins.
2%
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
The previously coordinated and issued Red Flag Warning still
looks on target with strong and gusty southwest winds, very low
afternoon RH, and 10h fuel moisture below 9%. The only change was
to add a few more counties to the northwest of the previous area
due to warmer temps and lower RH, so now all of central, east
central, and southeast Missouri is under a Red Flag Warning.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-
Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St.
Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
358 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Today: Primary focus will be on strong wind potential and critical
fire danger (see FIRE WEATHER section below).
For the umpteenth time this month, yet another strong mid level gyre
will drop south from central Canada, replacing the arctic air with
increasingly mild conditions. Surface pressures which started out at
around 1044mb at 00Z, will crash to near 1014mb by 00Z this evening.
Aches and pains alert! Incredible 30mb/24-hour pressure falls, coupled
with 50-60 knot 925mb flow, will once again set the stage for very
windy conditions across the region. As has been the case with the
last several wind events, strong vertical mixing and downward
momentum transfer will contribute to very strong gusts that will be
well above what is "typically" expected for forecast sustained winds
of 15 to 25 mph. Other than scattered mid cloud, ample sunshine
should help realize nearly maximum gust potential, with the RAP and
HRRR both suggesting widespread gusts exceeding 40 knots from late
morning through mid afternoon, as the pressure wave pushes southeast.
Have collaborated a wind advisory which will run from 10AM through
2PM across far NW MO/NE KS, and through 6PM across most of west
central/central/northeast MO into far eastern Kansas.
Despite the southwest winds, warm advection will lag quite a bit,
with most of the diurnal temperature boost coming in the 11AM-3PM
time frame. As a result, another very cold start expected this
morning with wind chills in the -5 to -10F range as the kids head to
the bus stop.
Tonight-Saturday:
Deep mixing will keep temperatures relatively mild tonight with lows
running some 20 degrees warmer than this morning. A few flurries to a
light dusting of snow could glance the far NE counties, but the bulk
of any very minor accumulations should once again fall well east of
the region as the strongest mid level ascent shifts into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Weak cyclonic flow and cloud cover beneath and intense upper jet will
lend to a challenging temperature forecast Saturday. High
temperatures will range some 15-20 degrees from the upper 20s near
Kirksville to the mid 40s across west central MO, and the gradient
magnitude varies considerably among the 00Z models.
Sunday-Sunday Night:
Low level temps will steadily warm Saturday night and early Sunday
ahead of the next arctic blast. 925mb temps could reach +10C,
suggesting that temperatures will likely reach the low-mid 50s across
all but far nrn MO before frontal passage late in the afternoon.
Definitely the mildest day in the coming week. In a reversal of
fortune so to speak, surface pressures will increase 30mb from 12Z
Sunday to 12Z Monday, coincident with a strong arctic blast trailing
yet another Canadian Clipper. Temperatures will plummet some 45 to 50
degrees from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning, and I would not be
surprised to see wind gusts again in the 30-40 mph range Sunday
evening. (Need to do some research as I cannot ever recall this
magnitude of wind in January across Missouri).
Monday-Thursday:
See no change in the overall upper flow pattern to round out the end
of the month. Above average confidence in little to no measurable
precipitation, and above average confidence in much below normal
temperatures Monday/Tuesday, then trending back toward normal
Wednesday/Thursday ahead of the next closed low in the sequence
dropping south through the Canadian Prairies.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected along and south of a
St. Joseph to Carrollton to Moberly line from late morning through
mid afternoon.
Early morning observations show a very dry boundary layer in place
with dewpoints in the single digits below zero. Very little moderate
of this airmass is expected as temperatures steadily warm into the
upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, yielding relative humidity
values between 18 and 25%. The very dry airmass and 10-hour fuel
stick moistures of 7-8% will contribute to a very volatile setup as
southwest winds increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
Given the potential for rapid grassland fire spread, a red flag
warning remains in effect from 10AM thru 8PM for the aforementioned
areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
VFR conditions are expected through the entire forecast. The biggest
concern will be from very strong and gusty south/southwesterly winds.
Winds will increase around sunrise as the surface high pressure
slides to the south and east and the pressure gradient really
strengthens across the area. As deeper mixing develops later in the
morning and this afternoon winds will become quite strong and gusty.
Have increased winds into the 25kt sustained 35kt gust range. Winds
potentially could be stronger if the pressure gradient and deepest
mixing occur together. But for now this looks to occur south and east
of the terminals.
A secondary concern is for LLWS late tonight through a few hours
after sunrise, before deeper mixing develops. Winds aloft will be
very strong, possibly around 50 kts. This will occur prior to the
surface pressure gradient strengthening. As a result have added LLWS
to the forecast.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this
evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this afternoon
FOR KSZ025-102.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this
evening FOR MOZ020>022-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR MOZ008-017-021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this afternoon
FOR MOZ001>007-011>016-020.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...CDB
FIRE WEATHER...Bookbinder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
The large Arctic high will continue to sink southward away from
the region today while the next frontal system begins driving
southward into the northern Plains. In between the surface
pressure gradient will tighten up as will the height field,
resulting in rather strong winds through the lower trop. The
combination of this along with mixing will produce strong and
gusty southwest winds. Both MOS values and wind gusts from the
HRRR and RAP suggest winds will meet advisory criteria across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with
wind gusts of 40 kts possible. This regime is also favorable for a
good warm-up even with the very cold start, and have highs above
the MOS guidance.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
A nw flow shortwave and attendant ULJ will dig into the area
tonight sending another cold front through the region. As has been
the case recently, strong and gusty northwest winds will accompany
the front. Large scale ascent associated with the shortwave
appears sufficient to produce an area of light snow across
northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Currently it looks like
the St. Louis region will be on the western fringe of the snow
field. I have bumped up pops in the high chance to likely category
within the aforementioned zone, and anticipate amounts from a
dusting to less than an inch. We remain in cyclonic flow and
northwest winds on Saturday with temperatures expected to remain
below average. The temperature see-saw then continues on Sunday as
the weak high pressure ridge departs quickly on Saturday night
and we are well into low-level warm advection just after midnight.
Strong warm advection on Sunday and gusty southwest-west winds
once again suggest a good warm-up with highs getting well above
normal. Enjoy the "warmth" because it is all downhill after
Sunday. The next formidable Arctic front/blast comes roaring into
the region on Sunday night and the airmass with this front is the
coldest since the early January Arctic outbreak.
A large full latitude longwave trof will continue to dominate
central and eastern NOAM through the middle of next week keeping
very cold conditions locked in across the region. The models are
finally showing signs this blocky cold pattern breaking down and by
early February suggest a negative phase of the PNA pattern will
become established.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2014
VFR fcst with sfc ridge settling south into TX tonight. Main story
will be the gusty SSW winds on Friday. Winds are in the process of
going sthrly tonight. All model guidance indicates 40 to 60 kts
of wind just a couple thousand feet off the ground. Some of this
is fcst to mix to the sfc. The pressure gradient also increases
significantly tomorrow. This means sustained wind near 20 kts with
gusts 30 to 35kts. This could lead to crosswind concerns on certain
runway configurations. Removed the mention of LLWS except at KCPS
and KSUS. Think that the threat remains marginal as the winds
aloft arrive just before mixing begins. I think there may still be
a brief window of a couple hrs as mixing is delayed due to the
location of the arpts in river valleys. Otherwise...expect an
increase in mid/high level cloudiness and continued gusty winds.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR fcst with the main concern gusty SSW winds. This will likley
become a crosswind concern later Friday morning and continuing
thru the rest of the day. Winds eventually will become NW by
Saturday morning. I removed the mention of LLWS as the window of
opportunity looks too narrow on the order of a couple hrs. The
stronger winds aloft arrive just before mixing begins.
2%
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 215 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2014
After coordinating with surrounding offices, as well as USFS and
MO Dept of Conservation, will be issuing a Red Flag Warning for
parts of central and east central Missouri, as well as much of
southeast Missouri, for late Friday morning into Friday evening.
Setup looks favorable for a strong warmup while surface ridge to
our south blocks any significant moisture return. Red Flag
criteria should easily be met...10hr fuel moisture values below
8% (criteria less than 9%), sustained SW winds at least 20 mph
(criteria greater than 15 mph) with higher gusts, and latest
temp/dewpoint forecasts suggests afternoon RH values below 20%
roughly along and south of a COU- Ste. Genevieve line (criteria
less than 25%).
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-
Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St.
Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon
FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon
FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
344 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2014
AN ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR MOBRIDGE THROUGH HURON
SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A MIXED ATMOSPHERE ALSO KEEPING EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2014
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR A PIERRE THROUGH
ONEILL LINE BY 18Z TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT QUICKLY
EASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL ALSO THIN
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. WENT NEAR PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST IN THE 50S...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THE EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
INCLUDING ONEILL WHERE HIGHS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S.
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE COLOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
140 KNOT JET MAX WILL CONTINUE TO BRING EITHER SPRINKLES OR
SLIGHT CHC OF -RW TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
HYANNIS THROUGH NORTH PLATTE. FORECAST TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREAD INCREASES TO ABOUT 30 DEGREES WHICH IS NOT NEARLY AS
EXCESSIVE AS LAST TUESDAY WHEN THE SPREAD WAS ABOUT 50 DEGREES.
TONIGHT...MOST AREAS TO REMAIN MIXED WITH MILD H85 TEMPS NEAR 10C
IN SRN NEBR AT 06Z. MOST AREAS TO REMAIN WELL INTO THE 40S
THROUGH THE EVENING. DO EXPECT SOME DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S. MEANWHILE...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2014
COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE DAY.
SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS N CENTRAL. 850 MB WINDS
AROUND 50 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
HELP MIX THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. GUIDANCE GENERALLY CLOSE
TO OR ABOVE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG EAST OF A KVTN TO
KBBW LINE...THUS WILL ISSUE A WATCH. REST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER EXPECT AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. ALSO
EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES. INITIALLY COULD SEE A MIX RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPS COULD
STILL BE IN THE 30S AS PRECIP STARTS...HOWEVER THE MIX WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. TEMPS TRICKY AS TIMING OF THE FRONT CRITICAL TO
HIGHS. EXPECT MORNING HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH...THEN FALLING MORE
LIKE CRASHING TEMPS. EARLY HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY WELL INTO
THE 30S AND LOCALLY COULD TOP 40...HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 20S...IF NOT INTO THE TEENS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO TO AROUND ZERO AND
WINDS ARE SLOW TO DIMINISH...ANOTHER HEADLINE IS POSSIBLE. THIS
TIME FOR WIND CHILLS...AT LEAST TO 20 BELOW ZERO IS POSSIBLE...OR
ADVISORY CRITERIA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE CWA. TO EARLY
TO ISSUE THIS YET...BUT IT WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. SNOW
CHANCES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO UPSLOPE FLOW CLOSER TO THE
FRONT RANGE. CONTINUED FLURRIES IN FAR SW ZONES...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.
WORK WEEK STARTS OUT COLD WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS STRUGGLE FOR MOST AREAS
TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS...WITH 20S ACROSS THE SW. MODELS FAVOR
UPSLOPE LIGHT PRECIP TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS WITH WINDS STILL ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH 15 TO 20 MPH AS
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE
MID MISS RVR VALLEY...WHICH HAS BEEN THE FAVORED SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TRACK LATELY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO
EVENTUALLY FILL IN FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR STILL ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING AGAIN INTO THE TEENS AND
20S...THEN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE UNUSUALLY FOR THIS WINTER AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW...BREAKING THE WESTERN RIDGE DOWN A
LITTLE. WITH QUASI ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS
BRING A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THEN AS THE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE SW A BRIEF PERIOD BY NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS TO BE SW FLOW. STILL ISSUES WITH TIMING AND EXACT
TRACK...HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AS MEASURABLE
PRECIP IN A WHILE. INITIALLY WAVES WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH SO EXPECT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE GENERALLY
DRY...ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL...ALTHOUGH WITH THE ADDED CLOUD
COVER...LOWS MAY BE ON THE MILD SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
THE NAM...RAP...SREF AND RAP ARE SHOWING MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO
NCNTL NEB TONIGHT AND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE SREF SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A SMALL AREA OF
IFR CIGS NEAR KVTN-KANW FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. NONE OF
THESE CIGS WILL AFFECT KLBF. A FEW GUSTS TO 40KT CONTINUE TONIGHT
NEAR FROM KVTN- KBBW.
SO...WEST OF A LINE FROM KVTN-KBBW...VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND VFR IS EXPECTED EAST OF THIS LINE
AFTER ABOUT 21Z-00Z SATURDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NEZ005>010-026>029-038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1114 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS
TDY. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA. FURTHER
WEST...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM OREGON NWD INTO THE YUKON AND EASTERN
ALASKA. UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...A LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
NRN CALIFORNIA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...NNWRLY FLOW CONTINUED
WITH 50 TO 100 METER HT FALLS NOTED OVER NRN MN...SRN MANITOBA AND
WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDY CONDITIONS WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WERE COMMON WITH SOME INFREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AND PARTLY CLOUDY IN
THE WEST WITH SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM
CST RANGED FROM 49 AT ONEILL...TO 57 AT IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...AND A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LOOK
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
CONTINUE. HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST...WITH 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...WITH A GENERAL 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
GUIDANCE HAS WIND RELATIVELY STRONG /AOA 15 KTS AT THE SFC/ WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA. MOST AREAS WILL STAY AROUND FREEZING WITH TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER
IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN CONCERN COMES SUNDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. NAM...GFS...AND EURO ALL SHOW
SIMILAR TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WENT WITH GENERAL BLEND OF NAM AND GFS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
TEMPS CRASH BEHIND THE FRONT /AFTER 18Z/ SO NON-DIURNAL TREND USED
FOR NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. CROSS SECTIONS AND SIMULATED SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND QUASI ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA...WHERE RAIN/SNOW MIX WAS
INTRODUCED. ALL SNOW WAS KEPT NORTH...WHERE DROPPING TEMPS ARRIVE
EARLIER IN THE DAY. CROPPED PRECIP CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIP MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST FROM THE ROCKIES IS SOMEWHAT
LOW...SO KEPT PRECIP MENTION AS FLURRIES. HIGH WINDS ARE ALSO A
CONCERN AS GUIDANCE PUSHES WINDS TO ADVISORY AND EVEN NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES MONDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
DIMINISHING NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL CRASH OVERNIGHT
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 5 BELOW IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR
10 ABOVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND 20S FAR
SOUTH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH THE FIRST COLD WAVE CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
A SECOND WAVE ARRIVING LATE WEEK. MEX AND ECE ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT FOR DOWNWARD TRENDING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT SO LOWERED PREVIOUS MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
SPREAD WIDENS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AS THE
ECE ALLOWS WARMING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND MEX EXTENDING THE COLD
AIR FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS
MODERATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE IS VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND EURO ARE TRYING TO CHANGE THE PATTERN NEXT
WEEKEND BY FLATTENING THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND BRINGING WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH NO MOISTURE ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE GEM NHEM KEEPING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN...HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
THE NAM...RAP...SREF AND RAP ARE SHOWING MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO
NCNTL NEB TONIGHT AND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE SREF SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A SMALL AREA OF IFR
CIGS NEAR KVTN-KANW FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. NONE OF THESE
CIGS WILL AFFECT KLBF. A FEW GUSTS TO 40KT CONTINUE TONIGHT NEAR
FROM KVTN- KBBW.
SO...WEST OF A LINE FROM KVTN-KBBW...VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND VFR IS EXPECTED EAST OF THIS LINE
AFTER ABOUT 21Z-00Z SATURDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING BUT DID CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.
CONTINUED THE ADVISORY IN THE WEST BECAUSE OF SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING AND CONTINUED IT IN THE EAST WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. SNOW
SQUALLS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO SINCE 1 PM AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEARS DOWN UPON US. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO THE
SNOW SQUALLS AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH 7 PM...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TO PUSH INLAND INTO
THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH.
1000-850MB OMEGA HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB HIGHLIGHTING THIS
THREAT AND BOTH THE NAM12 AND RUC13 SHOWS THE PEAK HAS OCCURRED.
CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ADVISORY IN NW OHIO BUT THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS OVER NRN INDIANA WILL
SPREAD INTO NW OHIO AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...AN INCH OR LOCALLY UP TO 2...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW AN INCH. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH
HOWEVER THAT THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH CONTINUING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
AROUND 8-12 MPH BY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WHOLE AREA STARTING AFTER 10 PM AS THE NEXT PUSH OF REALLY
COLD AIR ARRIVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. SNOWFALL MAY BE AS HIGH AS 2-3 INCHES IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH BRISK WIND
TO CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO WHERE THE
LANDSCAPE IS MORE OPEN. ELSEWHERE SNOW WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS FROM TOLEDO TO
MOUNT VERNON BUT WANTED TO KEEP IT SEPARATE FROM THE CURRENT
HEADLINES AS THERE WILL BE A SIZEABLE BREAK IN THE SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON SUNDAY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN NW PA TO UPPER 2OS IN
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 DEGREES NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND -10 TO -15 DEGREES INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR -25 AND WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF
NEEDING EITHER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOK FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUSH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S.
STILL COLD AND RAW TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
GET INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AND SLIGHT WARM-UP FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FRIDAY THIS IS STILL ALMOST TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MULTI LAKE FETCH FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO LAKE ERIE CAUSING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CLUSTERS AND SQUALLS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CLEVELAND AREA. A FEW RENEGADE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE AT AKRON CANTON...YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 1 AM IN THE MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO
WANE BY 4 AM. FINDLAY AND MANSFIELD MAY SEE A FLURRY OR TWO BUT
ALONG WITH TOLEDO...OVERALL TREND IS FOR CLEARING SKIES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
AND NEW ROUND OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HIT US LIKE A
WALL...MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THEN BE DONE UNTIL THE LAKE
EFFECT KICKS IN. WE COULD SEE A MIXED BAG OF CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND FORCE SNOW SHOWERS UP
THE LAKE SHORE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO MONDAY. NON VFR MAINLY IN THE SNOW BELT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING TIL 10 AM THIS MORNING AFTER COORDINATING
WITH WFO BUF. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGH TODAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY.
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF ANOTHER GALE
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL HOLD THE LINE TO RIGHT BELOW GALE CRITERIA AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOK FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WAVES WILL BE OMITTED DUE TO THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR OHZ009>014-019>023-029>033-038-089.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001>003.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...BC/LAPLANTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
432 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. SNOW SQUALLS
HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO SINCE 1 PM AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEARS
DOWN UPON US. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO THE SNOW SQUALLS
AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
7 PM...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TO PUSH INLAND INTO THIS EVENING AND
WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH. 1000-850MB OMEGA HAS
BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AND BOTH THE NAM12
AND RUC13 SHOWS THE PEAK HAS OCCURRED. CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE
ADVISORY IN NW OHIO BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW BANDS OVER NRN INDIANA WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...AN
INCH OR LOCALLY UP TO 2...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW AN INCH.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH HOWEVER THAT THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH
CONTINUING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
AROUND 8-12 MPH BY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WHOLE AREA STARTING AFTER 10 PM AS THE NEXT PUSH OF REALLY
COLD AIR ARRIVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. SNOWFALL MAY BE AS HIGH AS 2-3 INCHES IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH BRISK WIND
TO CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO WHERE THE
LANDSCAPE IS MORE OPEN. ELSEWHERE SNOW WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS FROM TOLEDO TO
MOUNT VERNON BUT WANTED TO KEEP IT SEPARATE FROM THE CURRENT
HEADLINES AS THERE WILL BE A SIZEABLE BREAK IN THE SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON SUNDAY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN NW PA TO UPPER 2OS IN
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 DEGREES NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND -10 TO -15 DEGREES INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR -25 AND WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF
NEEDING EITHER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOK FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUSH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S.
STILL COLD AND RAW TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
GET INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AND SLIGHT WARM-UP FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FRIDAY THIS IS STILL ALMOST TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE TO
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST ALONG WITH A BAND OF
SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH IFR VSYS AND MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON ARE STREAMING OFF THOSE
LAKES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SO
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY BELOW 3
MILES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN TAFS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM CLE EAST TO ERI IN THE SNOWBELT.
TOWARD MORNING ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND ANOTHER AREA
OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z. CIGS AND VSBY WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE AREA WILL BE BRIEFLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THROUGH REGION. A BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO MONDAY. NON VFR MAINLY IN THE SNOW BELT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING TIL 10 AM THIS MORNING AFTER COORDINATING
WITH WFO BUF. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGH TODAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY.
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF ANOTHER GALE
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL HOLD THE LINE TO RIGHT BELOW GALE CRITERIA AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOK FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WAVES WILL BE OMITTED DUE TO THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR OHZ009>014-019>023-029>033-038-089.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001>003.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...BC/LAPLANTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
126 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND DRAG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE CLEARING AREA BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD SNOW
HAS MADE IT TO A LINE FROM NORWALK TO MARION BY 11 AM. THE
CLEARING IS OCCURRING AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST AS CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS HOWEVER IS NOT
THE END TO THE SNOW AS A HEAVY BURST OF SNOW IS ACCOMPANYING THE
COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. VISIBILITIES AT MOST SITES ARE DROPPING TO A QUARTER MILE
OR LESS WITH THE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT IN SE MICHIGAN. THE FRONT
HAS JUST REACHED DETROIT AND WILL PUSH INTO NW OHIO SOON. THE NAM
AND RUC ARE BOTH PARTICULARLY ENERGETIC WITH LOW LEVEL OMEGA WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON SO CONTINUED TO CARRY ABOUT AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IN NW OHIO...WITH 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES
IN NE OHIO/NW PA. THE FRESH SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND AS
WINDS GUST TO 30 MPH. THE AREAS THAT ARE BEING EFFECT BY BLOWING
SNOW THIS MORNING MAY CHANGE AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ORIGINAL...THE SNOW HAS ARRIVED WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO
2 MILES. THIS IS GOOD FOR A COUPLE TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION PER
HOUR. S TO SW FLOW CONTINUES TO BE VERY GUSTY BUT PEAK GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO GO DOWN. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS WITH WINDS PEAKING IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY
MID MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME DRYING MOVING INTO NW OH AND
SURFACE VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED. HEAVIER SNOW OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
COMING FROM LAKE MI SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING AS IS BUT WILL BACK OFF ON SNOW TOTALS SOME. MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL END UP WITH A TOTAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH JUST
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE BIG STORY AND EXPECT
A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING. LOT`S OF WARMER AIR JUST TO THE
WEST BUT THINK TEMPS ARE ABOUT DONE CLIMBING NOW THAT THE SNOW HAS
ARRIVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY THE START OF TONIGHT LEAVING
ONLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND. EXPECT THE W TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT TO ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT THAT WE WILL
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL LET DAY CREW
TAKE CARE OF THAT ONCE THE SNOW SETTLES DOWN. EXPECT THAT THE
STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE SHIFTED THE ICE FIELDS ON LAKE ERIE
AROUND. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
KCLE BUT BRIEF RIDGING WILL MAKE THE FLOW UNFAVORABLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE SNOW FROM THE NEXT CLIPPER DOWN A
FEW HOURS GIVEN NEW 00Z GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA GETS ANY SNOW. LOOKING LIKE A 1 TO 3 INCH
TYPE SYSTEM SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED MORE HEADLINES. EXPECT
THE SNOW TO DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL OF COURSE HAVE
TO DEAL WITH THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SNEAK INTO NW AND N CENTRAL OH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS
FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER THAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETS UP OVER THE
REGION. 850 MB TEMPS COULD AGAIN GET CLOSE TO NEG 30. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY TEMPS CHANGES TO THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT CLOUDS AND WINDS DO BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG
CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOK FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUSH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S.
STILL COLD AND RAW TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
GET INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AND SLIGHT WARM-UP FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FRIDAY THIS IS STILL ALMOST TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE TO
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST ALONG WITH A BAND OF
SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH IFR VSYS AND MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON ARE STREAMING OFF THOSE
LAKES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SO
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY BELOW 3
MILES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN TAFS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM CLE EAST TO ERI IN THE SNOWBELT.
TOWARD MORNING ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND ANOTHER AREA
OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z. CIGS AND VSBY WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE AREA WILL BE BRIEFLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THROUGH REGION. A BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO MONDAY. NON VFR MAINLY IN THE SNOW BELT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING TIL 10 AM THIS MORNING AFTER COORDINATING
WITH WFO BUF. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGH TODAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY.
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF ANOTHER GALE
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL HOLD THE LINE TO RIGHT BELOW GALE CRITERIA AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOK FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WAVES WILL BE OMITTED DUE TO THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1138 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND DRAG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE CLEARING AREA BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD SNOW
HAS MADE IT TO A LINE FROM NORWALK TO MARION BY 11 AM. THE
CLEARING IS OCCURRING AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST AS CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS HOWEVER IS NOT
THE END TO THE SNOW AS A HEAVY BURST OF SNOW IS ACCOMPANYING THE
COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. VISIBILITIES AT MOST SITES ARE DROPPING TO A QUARTER MILE
OR LESS WITH THE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT IN SE MICHIGAN. THE FRONT
HAS JUST REACHED DETROIT AND WILL PUSH INTO NW OHIO SOON. THE NAM
AND RUC ARE BOTH PARTICULARLY ENERGETIC WITH LOW LEVEL OMEGA WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON SO CONTINUED TO CARRY ABOUT AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IN NW OHIO...WITH 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES
IN NE OHIO/NW PA. THE FRESH SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND AS
WINDS GUST TO 30 MPH. THE AREAS THAT ARE BEING EFFECT BY BLOWING
SNOW THIS MORNING MAY CHANGE AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ORIGINAL...THE SNOW HAS ARRIVED WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO
2 MILES. THIS IS GOOD FOR A COUPLE TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION PER
HOUR. S TO SW FLOW CONTINUES TO BE VERY GUSTY BUT PEAK GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO GO DOWN. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS WITH WINDS PEAKING IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY
MID MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME DRYING MOVING INTO NW OH AND
SURFACE VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED. HEAVIER SNOW OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
COMING FROM LAKE MI SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING AS IS BUT WILL BACK OFF ON SNOW TOTALS SOME. MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL END UP WITH A TOTAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH JUST
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE BIG STORY AND EXPECT
A LOT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING. LOT`S OF WARMER AIR JUST TO THE
WEST BUT THINK TEMPS ARE ABOUT DONE CLIMBING NOW THAT THE SNOW HAS
ARRIVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY THE START OF TONIGHT LEAVING
ONLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND. EXPECT THE W TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT TO ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT THAT WE WILL
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL LET DAY CREW
TAKE CARE OF THAT ONCE THE SNOW SETTLES DOWN. EXPECT THAT THE
STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE SHIFTED THE ICE FIELDS ON LAKE ERIE
AROUND. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
KCLE BUT BRIEF RIDGING WILL MAKE THE FLOW UNFAVORABLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE SNOW FROM THE NEXT CLIPPER DOWN A
FEW HOURS GIVEN NEW 00Z GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA GETS ANY SNOW. LOOKING LIKE A 1 TO 3 INCH
TYPE SYSTEM SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED MORE HEADLINES. EXPECT
THE SNOW TO DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL OF COURSE HAVE
TO DEAL WITH THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SNEAK INTO NW AND N CENTRAL OH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS
FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER THAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETS UP OVER THE
REGION. 850 MB TEMPS COULD AGAIN GET CLOSE TO NEG 30. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY TEMPS CHANGES TO THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT CLOUDS AND WINDS DO BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG
CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER BY THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOK FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUSH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S.
STILL COLD AND RAW TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
GET INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AND SLIGHT WARM-UP FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FRIDAY THIS IS STILL ALMOST TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SOME EXCEPT FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND THEN SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW FOR THE SNOW BELT AREAS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAINLY IN THE SNOW BELT LATE TONIGHT. NON VFR
REDEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY. NON VFR MAINLY IN THE SNOW BELT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING TIL 10 AM THIS MORNING AFTER COORDINATING
WITH WFO BUF. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGH TODAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY.
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF ANOTHER GALE
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL HOLD THE LINE TO RIGHT BELOW GALE CRITERIA AT
THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOK FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WAVES WILL BE OMITTED DUE TO THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
449 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH VERY COLD/BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO IMPACT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN AT ALTOONA AND STATE COLLEGE AS
DOWNSLOPING DOES FINE WORK IN RETARDING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF
THE SNOW SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF OUR
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MESO ANAL SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ENTERING NW OHIO AS OF 17Z...WITH A
VERY HARD TO FIND WARM FRONT SNAKING UP THRU SERN PA. THIS FEATURE
SHOWS UP BEST IN THE LOW LEVEL LI FIELD...BUT TEMP AND WIND
CHANGES ACROSS THE BOUNDARY ARE SUBTLE AT BEST. STABILITY IS
ERODING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH OHIO...BUT AS YET THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF THE KIND OF SQUALL LINE THE HIGH RES WRF HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING. THE 16Z RAP DOESN`T SHOW A COHERENT LINE ADVANCING
THRU CENTRAL PA...JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART.
THE OTHER NOTEWORTHY ASPECT OF THE WEATHER MOVING OUR WAY WILL BE
THE INCREASINGLY GUSTY WIND AND INVADING COLD. UPSTREAM WINDS ARE
RUNNING 25-35MPH...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH...WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY MORNING.
HAVE DECIDED TO REMAIN WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY CONFIGURATION AS
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW...AS WELL A SECONDARY AREA OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST WHERE SOME UPSLOPE COMBINES WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RATIOS WILL BE
MORE IMPORTANT THERE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER...BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH
TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT..LEAVING A COLDER NW FLOW
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW-SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WEST AND NORTH...BUT WITH
LAKE ERIE BEING ALMOST TOTALLY FROZEN...LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ONLY THE BRIEFEST OF RESPITES IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER DEPARTS...AND THE NEXT IN THE WAVE
TRAIN APPROACHES. AT THIS POINT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST A DRY MORNING
GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO AT
LEAST MY WESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE
TYPICALLY LIMITED WITH THE NEXT WAVE...AND INSTABILITY IS NOT
ADVERTISED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO INSIGNIFICANT IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS ABOVE NOTED CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER WILD TEMPERATURE
SWING...FROM SLOWLY RISING TEMPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
/WHICH MAY BRING THE WARMEST READINGS OF THE ENTIRE WEEK TO MANY
LOCALES AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY/...FOLLOWED BY A PLUNGE IN THE MERCURY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD
FROND AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR AGAIN GRIPS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SFC CFRONT. 03Z SREF SHOWS
QUITE GOOD CLUSTERING OF PLUMES BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 LEQ ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
MONDAY...WHILE LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST HAVE SREF MEAN
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF OF LESS THAN 0.10. ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 2
INCHES ARE LIKELY...ACROSS CENTRAL PENN. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ANOTHER/SIMILAR ROUND OF ADVISORY CRITERIA 2-4 INCH SNOW OVER THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS...PRECEDING ANY OROGRAPHIC/LES SNOW
SHOWERS/LOCALIZED SQUALLS THAT OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WE
COULD SEE VERY SIMILAR TEMPS TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING THE EARLY
JANUARY...RECORD COLD OUTBREAK. MODEL GUIDANCE ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY
BRINGS LOW TEMPS BELOW ZERO TO ENTIRE CWA TUE AND WED MORNING...WITH
-10F OR COLDER IN THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. TUESDAY
WILL BRING THE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE WEEK...AS TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INCH ONLY INTO THE
MID TEENS IN THE SE.
THERE/S HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA /OF -15F/ BEING MET LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY /WITH A SEEMINGLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA OF
-25F ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST MAINLY MON NIGHT
INTO TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS FOR WED WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE WC WARNINGS...BUT EVEN A LIGHT BREEZE WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BACK BELOW -15 TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH COLDER TEMP READINGS
POSS AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES POTENTIALLY CLEAR OUT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST.
ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMS /MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY/ SHOULD BE STRICTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NW ZONES...AND
PERHAPS THE RIDGES OF WRN SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COUNTIES.
OTHER THAN THE BITTER COLD /TEMPS ABOUT 20F BELOW NORMAL/ THE
MID-LATE WEEK WEATHER WILL BE OVERALL QUIET AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN. FLOW TURNS MORE SW HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARD
ONLY 5-10F BELOW NORMAL. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK AS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE VERY
AMPLIFIED ERN TROUGH PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX AS THE STRONG WEST
COAST RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN...WHICH SHOULD BRING RELIEF FROM
THE BITTER COLD AS WE ENTER INTO FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE EAST YET AT SPOTS LIKE MDT AND LNS.
SOME PATCHY SNOW ACROSS THE UNV...AOO AREAS.
MAIN CONCERN IS LINE OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS JUST
ENTERING NW PA. ADJUSTED 21Z TAFS FOR THIS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SNOW OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE EVENING WHEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT AND COLDER-
DRIER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY. OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...OCNL MVFR/IFR IN THE
LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITY BEING THE MAIN ISSUE...AVERAGING 1-3
MILES IN THE LIGHT SNOW. SIMILAR TO WESTERN AREAS...CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT AND BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WNW OVERNIGHT...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30KT COMMON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES. THIS WILL
CREATE ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW WHERE ACCUM SNOW HAS OCCURRED
TODAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
A NEW SYSTEM APPROACHING SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW AND
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WHICH WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST BEGINNING BY
LATE MORNING IN THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR WITH -SHSN WEST...MAINLY VFR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS.
TUE...MVFR -SHSN NW. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-042-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH VERY COLD/BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO IMPACT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN AT ALTOONA AND STATE COLLEGE AS
DOWNSLOPING DOES FINE WORK IN RETARDING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF
THE SNOW SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF OUR
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MESO ANAL SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ENTERING NW OHIO AS OF 17Z...WITH A
VERY HARD TO FIND WARM FRONT SNAKING UP THRU SERN PA. THIS FEATURE
SHOWS UP BEST IN THE LOW LEVEL LI FIELD...BUT TEMP AND WIND
CHANGES ACROSS THE BOUNDARY ARE SUBTLE AT BEST. STABILITY IS
ERODING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH OHIO...BUT AS YET THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF THE KIND OF SQUALL LINE THE HIGH RES WRF HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING. THE 16Z RAP DOESN`T SHOW A COHERENT LINE ADVANCING
THRU CENTRAL PA...JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART.
THE OTHER NOTEWORTHY ASPECT OF THE WEATHER MOVING OUR WAY WILL BE
THE INCREASINGLY GUSTY WIND AND INVADING COLD. UPSTREAM WINDS ARE
RUNNING 25-35MPH...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH...WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY MORNING.
HAVE DECIDED TO REMAIN WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY CONFIGURATION AS
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW...AS WELL A SECONDARY AREA OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST WHERE SOME UPSLOPE COMBINES WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RATIOS WILL BE
MORE IMPORTANT THERE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER...BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH
TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT..LEAVING A COLDER NW FLOW
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW-SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WEST AND NORTH...BUT WITH
LAKE ERIE BEING ALMOST TOTALLY FROZEN...LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ONLY THE BRIEFEST OF RESPITES IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER DEPARTS...AND THE NEXT IN THE WAVE
TRAIN APPROACHES. AT THIS POINT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST A DRY MORNING
GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO AT
LEAST MY WESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE
TYPICALLY LIMITED WITH THE NEXT WAVE...AND INSTABILITY IS NOT
ADVERTISED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO INSIGNIFICANT IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS ABOVE NOTED CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER WILD TEMPERATURE
SWING...FROM SLOWLY RISING TEMPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
/WHICH MAY BRING THE WARMEST READINGS OF THE ENTIRE WEEK TO MANY
LOCALES AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY/...FOLLOWED BY A PLUNGE IN THE MERCURY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD
FROND AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR AGAIN GRIPS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SFC CFRONT. 03Z SREF SHOWS
QUITE GOOD CLUSTERING OF PLUMES BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 LEQ ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
MONDAY...WHILE LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST HAVE SREF MEAN
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF OF LESS THAN 0.10. ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 2
INCHES ARE LIKELY...ACROSS CENTRAL PENN. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ANOTHER/SIMILAR ROUND OF ADVISORY CRITERIA 2-4 INCH SNOW OVER THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS...PRECEDING ANY OROGRAPHIC/LES SNOW
SHOWERS/LOCALIZED SQUALLS THAT OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WE
COULD SEE VERY SIMILAR TEMPS TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING THE EARLY
JANUARY...RECORD COLD OUTBREAK. MODEL GUIDANCE ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY
BRINGS LOW TEMPS BELOW ZERO TO ENTIRE CWA TUE AND WED MORNING...WITH
-10F OR COLDER IN THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. TUESDAY
WILL BRING THE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE WEEK...AS TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INCH ONLY INTO THE
MID TEENS IN THE SE.
THERE/S HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA /OF -15F/ BEING MET LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY /WITH A SEEMINGLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA OF
-25F ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST MAINLY MON NIGHT
INTO TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS FOR WED WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE WC WARNINGS...BUT EVEN A LIGHT BREEZE WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BACK BELOW -15 TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH COLDER TEMP READINGS
POSS AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES POTENTIALLY CLEAR OUT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST.
ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMS /MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY/ SHOULD BE STRICTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NW ZONES...AND
PERHAPS THE RIDGES OF WRN SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COUNTIES.
OTHER THAN THE BITTER COLD /TEMPS ABOUT 20F BELOW NORMAL/ THE
MID-LATE WEEK WEATHER WILL BE OVERALL QUIET AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN. FLOW TURNS MORE SW HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARD
ONLY 5-10F BELOW NORMAL. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK AS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE VERY
AMPLIFIED ERN TROUGH PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX AS THE STRONG WEST
COAST RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN...WHICH SHOULD BRING RELIEF FROM
THE BITTER COLD AS WE ENTER INTO FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE EVENING WHEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT AND COLDER-
DRIER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY. OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...OCNL MVFR/IFR IN THE
LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITY BEING THE MAIN ISSUE...AVERAGING 1-3
MILES IN THE LIGHT SNOW. SIMILAR TO WESTERN AREAS...CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT AND BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WNW OVERNIGHT...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30KT COMMON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES. THIS WILL
CREATE ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW WHERE ACCUM SNOW HAS OCCURRED
TODAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
A NEW SYSTEM APPROACHING SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW AND
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WHICH WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST BEGINNING BY
LATE MORNING IN THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR WITH -SHSN WEST...MAINLY VFR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS.
TUE...MVFR -SHSN NW. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-042-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
142 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH VERY COLD/BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO IMPACT CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN AT ALTOONA AND STATE COLLEGE AS
DOWNSLOPING DOES FINE WORK IN RETARDING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF
THE SNOW SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF OUR
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MESO ANAL SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ENTERING NW OHIO AS OF 17Z...WITH A
VERY HARD TO FIND WARM FRONT SNAKING UP THRU SERN PA. THIS FEATURE
SHOWS UP BEST IN THE LOW LEVEL LI FIELD...BUT TEMP AND WIND
CHANGES ACROSS THE BOUNDARY ARE SUBTLE AT BEST. STABILITY IS
ERODING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH OHIO...BUT AS YET THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF THE KIND OF SQUALL LINE THE HIGH RES WRF HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING. THE 16Z RAP DOESN`T SHOW A COHERENT LINE ADVANCING
THRU CENTRAL PA...JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART.
THE OTHER NOTEWORTHY ASPECT OF THE WEATHER MOVING OUR WAY WILL BE
THE INCREASINGLY GUSTY WIND AND INVADING COLD. UPSTREAM WINDS ARE
RUNNING 25-35MPH...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH...WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY MORNING.
HAVE DECIDED TO REMAIN WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY CONFIGURATION AS
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW...AS WELL A SECONDARY AREA OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST WHERE SOME UPSLOPE COMBINES WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION TO BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RATIOS WILL BE
MORE IMPORTANT THERE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER...BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH
TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT..LEAVING A COLDER NW FLOW
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW-SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WEST AND NORTH...BUT WITH
LAKE ERIE BEING ALMOST TOTALLY FROZEN...LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ONLY THE BRIEFEST OF RESPITES IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER DEPARTS...AND THE NEXT IN THE WAVE
TRAIN APPROACHES. AT THIS POINT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST A DRY MORNING
GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO AT
LEAST MY WESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE
TYPICALLY LIMITED WITH THE NEXT WAVE...AND INSTABILITY IS NOT
ADVERTISED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO INSIGNIFICANT IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS ABOVE NOTED CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER WILD TEMPERATURE
SWING...FROM SLOWLY RISING TEMPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
/WHICH MAY BRING THE WARMEST READINGS OF THE ENTIRE WEEK TO MANY
LOCALES AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY/...FOLLOWED BY A PLUNGE IN THE MERCURY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD
FROND AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR AGAIN GRIPS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SFC CFRONT. 03Z SREF SHOWS
QUITE GOOD CLUSTERING OF PLUMES BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 LEQ ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
MONDAY...WHILE LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST HAVE SREF MEAN
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF OF LESS THAN 0.10. ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 2
INCHES ARE LIKELY...ACROSS CENTRAL PENN. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ANOTHER/SIMILAR ROUND OF ADVISORY CRITERIA 2-4 INCH SNOW OVER THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS...PRECEDING ANY OROGRAPHIC/LES SNOW
SHOWERS/LOCALIZED SQUALLS THAT OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WE
COULD SEE VERY SIMILAR TEMPS TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING THE EARLY
JANUARY...RECORD COLD OUTBREAK. MODEL GUIDANCE ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY
BRINGS LOW TEMPS BELOW ZERO TO ENTIRE CWA TUE AND WED MORNING...WITH
-10F OR COLDER IN THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. TUESDAY
WILL BRING THE COLDEST HIGHS OF THE WEEK...AS TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INCH ONLY INTO THE
MID TEENS IN THE SE.
THERE/S HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA /OF -15F/ BEING MET LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY /WITH A SEEMINGLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA OF
-25F ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST MAINLY MON NIGHT
INTO TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS FOR WED WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE WC WARNINGS...BUT EVEN A LIGHT BREEZE WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BACK BELOW -15 TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH COLDER TEMP READINGS
POSS AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES POTENTIALLY CLEAR OUT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST.
ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMS /MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY/ SHOULD BE STRICTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NW ZONES...AND
PERHAPS THE RIDGES OF WRN SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COUNTIES.
OTHER THAN THE BITTER COLD /TEMPS ABOUT 20F BELOW NORMAL/ THE
MID-LATE WEEK WEATHER WILL BE OVERALL QUIET AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN. FLOW TURNS MORE SW HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARD
ONLY 5-10F BELOW NORMAL. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK AS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE VERY
AMPLIFIED ERN TROUGH PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX AS THE STRONG WEST
COAST RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN...WHICH SHOULD BRING RELIEF FROM
THE BITTER COLD AS WE ENTER INTO FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE EVENING WHEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT AND COLDER-
DRIER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY. OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...OCNL MVFR/IFR IN THE
LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITY BEING THE MAIN ISSUE...AVERAGING 1-3
MILES IN THE LIGHT SNOW. SIMILAR TO WESTERN AREAS...CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT AND BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WNW OVERNIGHT...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30KT COMMON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES. THIS WILL
CREATE ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW WHERE ACCUM SNOW HAS OCCURRED
TODAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
A NEW SYSTEM APPROACHING SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW AND
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WHICH WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST BEGINNING BY
LATE MORNING IN THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR WITH -SHSN WEST...MAINLY VFR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS.
TUE...MVFR -SHSN NW. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-042-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
919 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO 750MB WITH
66KTS AT THE TOP OF LAYER. 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED 3MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE HEADING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SD PLAINS.
THIS CAUSED PEAK GUST OF THE DAY AT THE OFFICE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
LATEST RAP BUFKIT DEPICTIONS MATCH THIS FAIRLY WELL AND KEEP
STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 07Z. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE SQUEEZE ZONE NEAR RAPID CITY THROUGH 07Z AND
THE REST OF THE CWA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW NEAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA RESPONSIBLE FOR SLOW START TO
STRONG WINDS. WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND TRANSITION TO WEAK
COLD ADVECTION...LOCATIONS FROM K2WX-KRAP HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER
55MPH FOR THE LAST HOUR. WILL LET WIND HEADLINES RUN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
FROUDE/RH FAVORABLE FOR SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY MORNING. MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE NEXT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. A SLOW WARMUP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW WILL KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 918 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND VERY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TONIGHT ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS AREA AS UPSLOPE SNOW DEVELOPS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SD PLAINS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST /1 AM CST/ TONIGHT FOR SDZ001-
002-012>014-025-030-032-042>044-046-047-049-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR SDZ026-031-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
709 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO 750MB WITH
66KTS AT THE TOP OF LAYER. 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED 3MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE HEADING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SD PLAINS.
THIS CAUSED PEAK GUST OF THE DAY AT THE OFFICE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
LATEST RAP BUFKIT DEPICTIONS MATCH THIS FAIRLY WELL AND KEEP
STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 07Z. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE SQUEEZE ZONE NEAR RAPID CITY THROUGH 07Z AND
THE REST OF THE CWA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW NEAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA RESPONSIBLE FOR SLOW START TO
STRONG WINDS. WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND TRANSITION TO WEAK
COLD ADVECTION...LOCATIONS FROM K2WX-KRAP HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER
55MPH FOR THE LAST HOUR. WILL LET WIND HEADLINES RUN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
FROUDE/RH FAVORABLE FOR SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY MORNING. MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE NEXT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW AND QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. A SLOW WARMUP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW WILL KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND VERY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO
50 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TONIGHT ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS AREA AS UPSLOPE SNOW DEVELOPS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SD PLAINS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST /1 AM CST/ TONIGHT FOR SDZ001-
002-012>014-025-030-032-042>044-046-047-049-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR SDZ026-031-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1159 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...ACTUAL CEILING PROGRESSION DEVELOPMENTAL TIMING AFTER
25/03Z...IMPACTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHWRS CSV AND LLWS POTENTIAL 25/09Z-25/18Z.
AS NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID STATE BY 25/03Z...EXPECT BKN CI
CEILINGS TO TRANSITION TO STRATUS VFR CEILINGS BY 25/09Z. ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY BE PRESENT FOR LIGHT SNOW SHWRS CSV FROM 25/12Z-25/18Z...BUT AM
INITIALLY EXPECTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND ICING POTENTIAL MINIMAL.
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SFC GUSTS 20-25KTS
25/09Z-25/18Z. JUST ABOVE SFC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINUANCE OF
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH POTENTIAL LLWS TO 60KTS 25/10Z-25/18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID STATE.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE FIRST 18
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CEILINGS IMPACT KCKV
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF
PERIOD AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KCKV. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 12Z.
SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS
FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS SURFACE HIGH
SINKS FARTHER SOUTH OF TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS DIVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
AREAS. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AROUND 850
MBARS ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH WINDS JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO TURN WESTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA. LATEST RUC SOUNDING SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. I/R SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS
FIBRATUS SCOOTING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA ASSOCIATED
WITH 160 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 20S AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPING AM EXPECTING
TEMPS TONIGHT TO ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS PRESENTS KNOWN HERE IN THE MID STATE
AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CONTINUING EAST
OF INTERSTATE 24 SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A HALF INCH
ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ITS NOT AS
COLD BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AS PREVIOUS CLIPPERS. SURFACE HIGH
QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AROUND 50 MANY AREAS WITH MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE PLATEAU.
A STRONGER CLIPPER COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN
ONCE AGAIN. THE WORK WEEK LOOKS COLD AND SOMEWHAT A REPEAT OF WHAT
WE JUST HAD. LOOKING FARTHER OUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PATTERN
CHANGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET BECOMES
DOMINATE. THIS BEGINS TO SHOW UP ON THE EURO BY THE 31ST OF
JANUARY AND CONTINUES PAST GROUNDHOG DAY. LETS HOPE ITS A CLOUDY
DAY WHEN HE EMERGES FROM HIS BURROW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
520 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID STATE.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE FIRST 18
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CEILINGS IMPACT KCKV
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF
PERIOD AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KCKV. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 12Z.
SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS
FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS SURFACE HIGH
SINKS FARTHER SOUTH OF TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS DIVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
AREAS. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AROUND 850
MBARS ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH WINDS JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO TURN WESTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA. LATEST RUC SOUNDING SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. I/R SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS
FIBRATUS SCOOTING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA ASSOCIATED
WITH 160 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 20S AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPING AM EXPECTING
TEMPS TONIGHT TO ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS PRESENTS KNOWN HERE IN THE MID STATE
AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CONTINUING EAST
OF INTERSTATE 24 SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A HALF INCH
ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ITS NOT AS
COLD BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AS PREVIOUS CLIPPERS. SURFACE HIGH
QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AROUND 50 MANY AREAS WITH MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE PLATEAU.
A STRONGER CLIPPER COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN
ONCE AGAIN. THE WORK WEEK LOOKS COLD AND SOMEWHAT A REPEAT OF WHAT
WE JUST HAD. LOOKING FARTHER OUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PATTERN
CHANGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET BECOMES
DOMINATE. THIS BEGINS TO SHOW UP ON THE EURO BY THE 31ST OF
JANUARY AND CONTINUES PAST GROUNDHOG DAY. LETS HOPE ITS A CLOUDY
DAY WHEN HE EMERGES FROM HIS BURROW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011-
032>034-065-066-078>080.
&&
$$
TB12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
224 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WILL LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 12Z.
SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS
FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS SURFACE HIGH
SINKS FARTHER SOUTH OF TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS DIVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
AREAS. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AROUND 850
MBARS ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH WINDS JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO TURN WESTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA. LATEST RUC SOUNDING SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. I/R SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS
FIBRATUS SCOOTING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA ASSOCIATED
WITH 160 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 20S AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPING AM EXPECTING
TEMPS TONIGHT TO ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS PRESENTS KNOWN HERE IN THE MID STATE
AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CONTINUING EAST
OF INTERSTATE 24 SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A HALF INCH
ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ITS NOT AS
COLD BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AS PREVIOUS CLIPPERS. SURFACE HIGH
QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AROUND 50 MANY AREAS WITH MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE PLATEAU.
A STRONGER CLIPPER COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN
ONCE AGAIN. THE WORK WEEK LOOKS COLD AND SOMEWHAT A REPEAT OF WHAT
WE JUST HAD. LOOKING FARTHER OUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PATTERN
CHANGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET BECOMES
DOMINATE. THIS BEGINS TO SHOW UP ON THE EURO BY THE 31ST OF
JANUARY AND CONTINUES PAST GROUNDHOG DAY. LETS HOPE ITS A CLOUDY
DAY WHEN HE EMERGES FROM HIS BURROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 26 22 42 22 / 0 20 10 05
CLARKSVILLE 26 23 38 20 / 0 30 10 05
CROSSVILLE 23 20 34 19 / 0 10 30 05
COLUMBIA 27 22 42 22 / 0 10 10 05
LAWRENCEBURG 29 23 43 23 / 0 05 10 05
WAVERLY 26 23 40 21 / 0 20 10 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011-
032>034-065-066-078>080.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
739 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
DROPPING WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED SO WILL DROP THE ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. WILL LET THE WSW CONTINUE DEPITE THE DWINDLING THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP. ROADS ARE ICY EVERYWHERE AND FEEL IT IS
BEST JUST TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. MARINE DISCUSSION INCLUDED
AS WELL.
40
AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS WERE ENDING THE PRECIP OVER KCLL AND KUTS. THINK THAT
THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR ICE PELLETS
THROUGH 13Z. TRENDED THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP AT KCXO AND KIAH.
WAS LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP FROM KHOU AND
KSGR TO THE COAST. RADAR INDICATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS CONTINUING
TO GENERATE PRECIP WELL WEST OF KLBX. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
FREEZING THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE LATE MORNING. THE MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THESE
TWO SITES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND EARLY THIS EVENING TOWARD THE COAST.
40
MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS LOOK LIKELY FROM
MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLDSPRING. QUITE A LULL IN PRECIP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO
THE REGION AND RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES WILL START
TO FREEZE. TXDOT IS REPORTING ICE ON MANY ROADS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND THIS APPEARS TO BE BACKED UP BY RADAR WHICH
SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WILL PROBABLY NOT MEET WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA
BUT DON`T SEE THE SENSE IN SWITCHING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. WILL RE-EVALUATE AT 12Z ONCE THE MORNING SOUNDINGS
COME IN...BUT FEEL THE WSW COULD BE DROPPED BY 15Z. DON`T BE
SURPRISED IF AN UPDATED FORECAST IS ISSUED BETWEEN 6-7 AM.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING FROM THE TOP SO SNOW NORTH OF HOUSTON
WILL LOSE THEIR ICE CRYSTALS AND PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO ICE
PELLETS OR FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...06Z SOUNDING LAUNCHED AT
THE UNIV OF HOUSTON SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH A WARM NOSE
BETWEEN 900-700 MB AND A SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM 900 MB TO NEAR
1000 MB. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE WILL AFFECT HOUSTON METRO
AREAS FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE ENDING. THE STRONG RRQ WHICH
HAS ENHANCED LIFT IS PULLING AWAY AND OMEGA WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY
THIS MORNING SO FEEL MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END EARLY
THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS CLOUDY ALL DAY SO DON`T
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL RELAX LATER TODAY. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
COAST THRU 15Z BUT THE TREND IS FOR WINDS TO RELAX THIS MORNING.
WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SAT/SUN AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED 60
DEGREES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S TUES/WED MORNING
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS
ARE DRY WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHILE THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 37 29 59 40 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 36 31 59 42 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 37 37 55 48 64 / 40 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. MARINE DISCUSSION INCLUDED
AS WELL.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS WERE ENDING THE PRECIP OVER KCLL AND KUTS. THINK THAT
THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR ICE PELLETS
THROUGH 13Z. TRENDED THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP AT KCXO AND KIAH.
WAS LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP FROM KHOU AND
KSGR TO THE COAST. RADAR INDICATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS CONTINUING
TO GENERATE PRECIP WELL WEST OF KLBX. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
FREEZING THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE LATE MORNING. THE MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THESE
TWO SITES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND EARLY THIS EVENING TOWARD THE COAST.
40
&&
.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS LOOK LIKELY FROM
MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLDSPRING. QUITE A LULL IN PRECIP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO
THE REGION AND RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES WILL START
TO FREEZE. TXDOT IS REPORTING ICE ON MANY ROADS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND THIS APPEARS TO BE BACKED UP BY RADAR WHICH
SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WILL PROBABLY NOT MEET WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA
BUT DON`T SEE THE SENSE IN SWITCHING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. WILL RE-EVALUATE AT 12Z ONCE THE MORNING SOUNDINGS
COME IN...BUT FEEL THE WSW COULD BE DROPPED BY 15Z. DON`T BE
SURPRISED IF AN UPDATED FORECAST IS ISSUED BETWEEN 6-7 AM.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING FROM THE TOP SO SNOW NORTH OF HOUSTON
WILL LOSE THEIR ICE CRYSTALS AND PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO ICE
PELLETS OR FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...06Z SOUNDING LAUNCHED AT
THE UNIV OF HOUSTON SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH A WARM NOSE
BETWEEN 900-700 MB AND A SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM 900 MB TO NEAR
1000 MB. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE WILL AFFECT HOUSTON METRO
AREAS FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE ENDING. THE STRONG RRQ WHICH
HAS ENHANCED LIFT IS PULLING AWAY AND OMEGA WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY
THIS MORNING SO FEEL MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END EARLY
THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS CLOUDY ALL DAY SO DON`T
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL RELAX LATER TODAY. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
COAST THRU 15Z BUT THE TREND IS FOR WINDS TO RELAX THIS MORNING.
WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SAT/SUN AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED 60
DEGREES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S TUES/WED MORNING
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS
ARE DRY WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHILE THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 37 29 59 40 67 / 40 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 36 31 59 42 67 / 70 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 37 37 55 48 64 / 70 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: FORT BEND...HARRIS...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS LOOK LIKELY FROM
MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLDSPRING. QUITE A LULL IN PRECIP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO
THE REGION AND RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES WILL START
TO FREEZE. TXDOT IS REPORTING ICE ON MANY ROADS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND THIS APPEARS TO BE BACKED UP BY RADAR WHICH
SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WILL PROBABLY NOT MEET WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA
BUT DON`T SEE THE SENSE IN SWITCHING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. WILL RE-EVALUATE AT 12Z ONCE THE MORNING SOUNDINGS
COME IN...BUT FEEL THE WSW COULD BE DROPPED BY 15Z. DON`T BE
SURPRISED IF AN UPDATED FORECAST IS ISSUED BETWEEN 6-7 AM.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING FROM THE TOP SO SNOW NORTH OF HOUSTON
WILL LOSE THEIR ICE CRYSTALS AND PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO ICE
PELLETS OR FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...06Z SOUNDING LAUNCHED AT
THE UNIV OF HOUSTON SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH A WARM NOSE
BETWEEN 900-700 MB AND A SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM 900 MB TO NEAR
1000 MB. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE WILL AFFECT HOUSTON METRO
AREAS FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE ENDING. THE STRONG RRQ WHICH
HAS ENHANCED LIFT IS PULLING AWAY AND OMEGA WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY
THIS MORNING SO FEEL MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END EARLY
THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS CLOUDY ALL DAY SO DON`T
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL RELAX LATER TODAY. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
COAST THRU 15Z BUT THE TREND IS FOR WINDS TO RELAX THIS MORNING.
WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SAT/SUN AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED 60
DEGREES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S TUES/WED MORNING
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS
ARE DRY WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHILE THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 37 29 59 40 67 / 40 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 36 31 59 42 67 / 70 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 37 37 55 48 64 / 70 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: FORT BEND...HARRIS...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS LATEST PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING THIS WINTRY
MIX TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
EARLY PRE-DAWN COLUMN COOLS FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING (FROM LIGHT
PRECIPITATION) AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MANY OF THE INTERIOR TERMINALS.
THERE IS A DECENT POSSIBILITY THAT THE (NEAR) COASTAL HUBS WILL
ALSO EXPERIENCE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL. HIGH REZ MODELING DEPICTS
A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FILL IN OF -PLSN OR -SN FROM AROUND 09Z
THROUGH 13-15Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WINTER
PRECIPITATION AND AMPED NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH LATE MORNING. CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT VRB
WINDS BY EARLY EVENING. THUS...THE NEXT 8 HOURS WILL BE THE WORST
OF IT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MID EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTHWEST
(AROUND THE CLL AND CALDWELL AREA) TO THE MID 30S IN THE HOUSTON
AREA TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT THE COAST. WINDS ARE HOWLING AND
GUSTY...GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH WELL INLAND...20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND AT THE BEACHES. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59. GALE WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR PRECIP...THERE HAS
BEEN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH AN OCCASIONAL SHOW
FLURRY REPORTED ON SURFACE OBS AND VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. WHILE
RADAR IS TRENDING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE...MODELS INDICATE
MORE DEVELOPMENT FROM ROUGHLY I-10 SOUTHWARD AND OFF THE COAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...WILL NOT
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STAY SAFE! 42
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
A WINTRY TAF WITH PERIODS OF -RA...TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET-
RAIN...WITH A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FLURRIES FROM GENERALLY THE CITY NORTHWARD. FORECAST HAS MANY
INTERIOR HUBS FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
.COASTAL TERMINALS FALLING TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEP ENOUGH SUB-FREEZING LAYER
WITHIN THIS OVERRUNNING SITUATION TO ALLOW FOR MID-LAYER LIGHT
RAIN TO PARTIALLY FREEZE INTO SLEET ON ITS WAY THROUGH IT. LIGHT
RAIN OR SLEET FALLING ONTO COLD SURFACES (I.E., AIRCRAFT HULLS,
ELEVATED METALLIC STRUCTURES) MAY FREEZE UPON CONTACT. THIS FROZEN
MIXTURE MAY LINGER ON INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRY
AIR MOVES IN AND SCOURS OUT THE MID TO LOWER LAYERS. EARLY PERIOD
MVFR DECKS FALLING TO IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH QUITE
THE ROBUST NORTHEAST WIND IN THE 15-25G35 KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. 31
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY...
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
DROP. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
AND EVEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SLOWLY SWING TOWARDS N TX TONIGHT WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. COLD AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CONROE NORTHWARD MAINLY AROUND 9PM. FREEZING TEMPS THEN
WORK NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR HOUSTON
ALTHOUGH IT COULD HAPPEN SOONER WITH PRECIP FALLING AND WET BULB
THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MODELS CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING THIS DRIER AIR OUT OF THE AREA OR SLOWLY MOVING IN MIXING
WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT IS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
AS JET DYNAMICS SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OVER THE AREA...NAM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT.
GFS NOT AS MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SOLID 0.1 TO 0.25
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRI. NAM ALSO HAS QUITE
A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS IN SEVERAL LAYERS MAINLY 850MB-700MB
PEAKING AROUND 06Z THROUGH 12Z. THE MAIN ISSUE BEFORE WAS WOULD
THERE BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP AND WHETHER DRY SUB FREEZING LAYER
WOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING GROUND. THAT HAS CHANGED AND AS A
RESULT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE MET ACROSS THE
AREA. LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER 18Z FRI SO EXPECT
PRECIP TO END IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM STILL HOLDS ONTO
PRECIP LONGER ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THINK AREAS NORTH OF CONROE WILL START WITH
RAIN TRANSITION TO MIX SLEET/FZRA UNTIL 06Z FRI. MAY THEN SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS.
POSSIBLE TO HAVE A BAND OF 1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
CALDWELL/COLLEGE STATION ACROSS HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. ICE
ACCUMULATION MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE A MESS
OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BASICALLY CONROE SOUTH THOUGH HOUSTON TO THE
COAST EXPECT RAIN GOING TO FZRA/SLEET APPROACHING MIDNIGHT WHEN
TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AT SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BUT SUPPOSE A FLAKE OR TWO COULD MIX IN WITH
SLEET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM NOSE AROUND 850-800MB IN
SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT SLEET AND DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF
SUB-FREEZING LAYER...FREEZING RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. POSSIBLE
TO GET FREEZING RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS GALVESTON BY 12Z FRI WHICH
COULD CAUSE FURTHER TRAVEL ISSUES.
ACCUMULATIONS...OVERALL EXPECT HALF INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR
NORTHERN AREAS AS OUTLINED ABOVE. GIVE MESO MODEL OUTPUT FROM TX
TECH WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS...EVEN 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS. FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERAL 0.05 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ICE
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG I-10 AND US59 AND BACK TOWARDS
HOUSTON. LOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BUT STILL
A RISK MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WEEKEND DOES LOOK TO BE WARMER AFTER FRIDGID FRIDAY. NEXT FRONT
STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL PUT MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW
FREEZING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WINTER
WEATHER SCENARIO AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED OUT WITH FRONT. 39
&&
.MARINE... WENT AHEAD WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OUR MARINE
AREAS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AND NO CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT
CONFIGURATIONS WILL BE COMING WITH THIS NEXT PACKAGE. STILL
EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO DE- CREASE BY TOMORROW/FRI AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE TX AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
SUN OVERNIGHT/VERY EARLY MON. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 26 36 29 60 41 / 70 30 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 28 35 30 60 41 / 80 50 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 30 37 36 56 48 / 70 60 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1201 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANCHORED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
U.S. INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING
RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH. A SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...ALSO
PROVIDING FOR MINOR TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF UPSLOPE SNOW IN
THE ALLEGHANYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1120 AM EST SATURDAY...
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
AS OF 940 AM EST SATURDAY...
NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...WIND
AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT.
ROBUST ALBERTA CLIPPER IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. WITH KFCX WSR-88D LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS IN THE
EAST...EXPANDED THE SNOW FLURRIES INTO THE PIEDMONT. REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW STILL HIGHLIGHT
THE BEST FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. WILL MONITER THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW AND ITS ACCUMULATIONS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES...AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY WITH THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
AS OF 530 AM EST SATURDAY...
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER
THAT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR PRECEDES THIS SYSTEM WITH ALL
AREAS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND WELL BELOW NORMAL YET AGAIN THIS
MORNING. LWB AT -5F...WITH MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE PIEDMONT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR 10 TO 15F RANGE...PIEDMONT IN THE 15 TO 22 RANGE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BRING SOME WARMING INTO THE AREA
TODAY...BUT IT INDEED BE VERY BRIEF AS THE -20C 850MB ISOTHERM
RAPIDLY SURGES BACK TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS ALBERTA CLIPPER
ACTUALLY RESULTS IN FOUR WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT...WIND
CHILL...UPSLOPE SNOWFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NC/FAR SW VA...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL MAINLY BE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...LINGERING OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
OF EASTERN WV. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WELL BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SNOWFALL IN SW VA THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. WILL NEED TO WATCH THAT THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES FAR SW VA/NW NC AND 2-4
INCHES TAZEWELL VA NORTH TO GREENBRIER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
GREENBRIER AS USUAL...WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 5
INCHES BY SUN MORNING.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW VA/NW NC...BUT THE
MAIN INCREASE IN WIND WILL COME BEHIND THE CLIPPER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY AFT 00Z AND AFTER THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE W OR
WNW. FOR THIS CONCERN...HAVE POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR NC
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN
THE 00Z- 06Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT COULD APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA.
FINAL CONCERN IS ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS OUR NC PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. NCFS REQUESTED FWF/RFW FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH
10-HR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON FRI DROPPING INTO
THE 6-7 PERCENT RANGE COMBINED WITH THE WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES OF
15-20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR
MASS AND ADDITIONAL DOWNSLOPE DRYING...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED
WINDS...CONDITIONS CERTAINLY MEET RFW CRITERIA. THUS...HAVE
MATCHED GSP/RAH WITH RFW. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER FOR ALLEGHANY AND WILKES COUNTY NC WHERE FUELS ARE WETTER
AND RH VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
FOR TEMPERATURES...GRIDDED MODEL GFS/ECMWF TEMPS SEEM TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND
THE MINIMUMS FOR SUN. HOWEVER...THIS RESULTED IN READINGS AND
ESPECIALLY WIND CHILL READINGS TOO LOW AND OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH
NEIGHBORS. HAVE COMPROMISED WITH A GFS MOS/ECMWF MOS/GRIDDED GFS
SFC T BLEND...STILL YEILDING BELOW ZERO TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF
GREENBRIER COUNTY EARLY SUN...AND WIND CHILLS OF -5F TO -20F
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEST OF I-81 AND I-77 LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUN. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE POSTED A NEW WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS. IF TEMPS TREND MORE TOWARD ADVERTISED GFS/ECMWF
GRIDDED SFC T...A WIND CHILL WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
BATH/GREENBRIER/SUMMERS COUNTY...AND POSSIBLY OTHERS DOWN INTO SW
VA AND NW NC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...
ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. AGAIN
EXPECTING A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS JUST AHEAD AND ALONG
IT...WITH A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW BEHIND IT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE TO RISE THROUGH THE 40S...WITH FALLING TEMPS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...WITH MORNING HIGHS ACROSS SE WEST VA AS
TEMPS PLUMMET TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A LIGHT SNOWFALL...RIGHT AROUND MONDAY MORNING
RUSH HOUR...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH MOST SPOTS...BUT AN INCH OR TWO
ABOVE 3000 FEET ACROSS SW VA AND SE WEST VA. WITH H85 TEMPS TO -27C
ALONG NW GREENBRIER MONDAY NIGHT...AND SNOWCOVER...USED THE 2M GFS
TEMPS FOR MINS...AS THEY HAVE BEEN VERIFYING MUCH BETTER DURING
THESE ARCTIC BLASTS THAN THE MOS FOR MINS. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE BUSTED
BY 10F JUST A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THIS MOST RECENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
FOLLOWED THE SAME IDEA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY AND DECOUPLING EXPECTED. THIS MAY PUT THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
AROUND 5 BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 10F IN SE WEST VA. WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...
THE MASSIVE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA...OFTEN REFERRED TO AS
THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL MAINTAIN ITS POSITION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AS WELL AS ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER PATTERN.
WILL START MONDAY EVENING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. MONDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY...TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. AS SUCH...WILL START TUESDAY MORNING OFF WITH WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EASILY IN THE ADVISORY TERRITORY OF -5F
TO -15F...POSSIBLY DROPPING TO -20F OR LOWER ACROSS WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL REBOUND
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE.
THERE WAS CONCERN YESTERDAY OF A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SPREADING SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA. TODAY...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS
EVENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF STILL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MODEST
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST...AS AM HESITANT TO MAKE A
DRASTIC CHANGE UNTIL THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS EVENT.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS THE POLAR LOW IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING
DOWN. AS SUCH...WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. THE WARMING
TRENDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR LOW
RETREATS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1201 PM EST SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO IFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A KTNB-KMKJ-KHSP
LINE...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES OF KBLF AND KLWB. EAST OF THIS AREA
TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PATCHY AMONG A MORE PREDOMINATE LOW END VFR CEILING AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST
LOCATIONS AFTER ROUGHLY 02Z/8PM SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...850 MB WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH 50KTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA AT
THIS LEVEL. AT THE SURFACE...GUSTS WILL APPROACH 40 TO 45 KTS AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 25KTS WILL BE MORE COMMON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS...VISIBILITY AND WIND DURING THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCHANGED. FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING ALONG THE FLOW AND MOVING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR REGION. EACH OF THESE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS CONCURRENT AND IN THE
WAKE OF EACH SYSTEM.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR VAZ007-009>016-018>020.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ007.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-
020.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR WVZ042>045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-
043-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
944 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANCHORED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
U.S. INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING
RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH. A SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...ALSO
PROVIDING FOR MINOR TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF UPSLOPE SNOW IN
THE ALLEGHANYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST SATURDAY...
NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...WIND
AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT.
ROBUST ALBERTA CLIPPER IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. WITH KFCX WSR-88D LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS IN THE
EAST...EXPANDED THE SNOW FLURRIES INTO THE PIEDMONT. REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW STILL HIGHLIGHT
THE BEST FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. WILL MONITER THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW AND ITS ACCUMULATIONS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES...AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY WITH THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
AS OF 530 AM EST SATURDAY...
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER
THAT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR PRECEDES THIS SYSTEM WITH ALL
AREAS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND WELL BELOW NORMAL YET AGAIN THIS
MORNING. LWB AT -5F...WITH MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE PIEDMONT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR 10 TO 15F RANGE...PIEDMONT IN THE 15 TO 22 RANGE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BRING SOME WARMING INTO THE AREA
TODAY...BUT IT INDEED BE VERY BRIEF AS THE -20C 850MB ISOTHERM
RAPIDLY SURGES BACK TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS ALBERTA CLIPPER
ACTUALLY RESULTS IN FOUR WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT...WIND
CHILL...UPSLOPE SNOWFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NC/FAR SW VA...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL MAINLY BE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...LINGERING OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
OF EASTERN WV. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WELL BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SNOWFALL IN SW VA THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. WILL NEED TO WATCH THAT THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES FAR SW VA/NW NC AND 2-4
INCHES TAZEWELL VA NORTH TO GREENBRIER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
GREENBRIER AS USUAL...WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 5
INCHES BY SUN MORNING.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW VA/NW NC...BUT THE
MAIN INCREASE IN WIND WILL COME BEHIND THE CLIPPER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY AFT 00Z AND AFTER THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE W OR
WNW. FOR THIS CONCERN...HAVE POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR NC
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN
THE 00Z- 06Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT COULD APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA.
FINAL CONCERN IS ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS OUR NC PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. NCFS REQUESTED FWF/RFW FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH
10-HR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON FRI DROPPING INTO
THE 6-7 PERCENT RANGE COMBINED WITH THE WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES OF
15-20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR
MASS AND ADDITIONAL DOWNSLOPE DRYING...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED
WINDS...CONDITIONS CERTAINLY MEET RFW CRITERIA. THUS...HAVE
MATCHED GSP/RAH WITH RFW. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER FOR ALLEGHANY AND WILKES COUNTY NC WHERE FUELS ARE WETTER
AND RH VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
FOR TEMPERATURES...GRIDDED MODEL GFS/ECMWF TEMPS SEEM TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND
THE MINIMUMS FOR SUN. HOWEVER...THIS RESULTED IN READINGS AND
ESPECIALLY WIND CHILL READINGS TOO LOW AND OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH
NEIGHBORS. HAVE COMPROMISED WITH A GFS MOS/ECMWF MOS/GRIDDED GFS
SFC T BLEND...STILL YEILDING BELOW ZERO TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF
GREENBRIER COUNTY EARLY SUN...AND WIND CHILLS OF -5F TO -20F
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEST OF I-81 AND I-77 LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUN. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE POSTED A NEW WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS. IF TEMPS TREND MORE TOWARD ADVERTISED GFS/ECMWF
GRIDDED SFC T...A WIND CHILL WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
BATH/GREENBRIER/SUMMERS COUNTY...AND POSSIBLY OTHERS DOWN INTO SW
VA AND NW NC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SATURDAY...
ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. AGAIN
EXPECTING A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS JUST AHEAD AND ALONG
IT...WITH A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW BEHIND IT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE TO RISE THROUGH THE 40S...WITH FALLING TEMPS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...WITH MORNING HIGHS ACROSS SE WEST VA AS
TEMPS PLUMMET TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A LIGHT SNOWFALL...RIGHT AROUND MONDAY MORNING
RUSH HOUR...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH MOST SPOTS...BUT AN INCH OR TWO
ABOVE 3000 FEET ACROSS SW VA AND SE WEST VA. WITH H85 TEMPS TO -27C
ALONG NW GREENBRIER MONDAY NIGHT...AND SNOWCOVER...USED THE 2M GFS
TEMPS FOR MINS...AS THEY HAVE BEEN VERIFYING MUCH BETTER DURING
THESE ARCTIC BLASTS THAN THE MOS FOR MINS. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE BUSTED
BY 10F JUST A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THIS MOST RECENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
FOLLOWED THE SAME IDEA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY AND DECOUPLING EXPECTED. THIS MAY PUT THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
AROUND 5 BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 10F IN SE WEST VA. WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...
THE MASSIVE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA...OFTEN REFERRED TO AS
THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL MAINTAIN ITS POSITION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AS WELL AS ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER PATTERN.
WILL START MONDAY EVENING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. MONDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY...TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. AS SUCH...WILL START TUESDAY MORNING OFF WITH WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EASILY IN THE ADVISORY TERRITORY OF -5F
TO -15F...POSSIBLY DROPPING TO -20F OR LOWER ACROSS WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL REBOUND
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE.
THERE WAS CONCERN YESTERDAY OF A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SPREADING SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA. TODAY...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS
EVENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF STILL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MODEST
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST...AS AM HESITANT TO MAKE A
DRASTIC CHANGE UNTIL THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS EVENT.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS THE POLAR LOW IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING
DOWN. AS SUCH...WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. THE WARMING
TRENDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR LOW
RETREATS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EST FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z/7AM SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO IFR/MVFR BY 18Z/1PM WITH
ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A KTNB-KMKJ-KHSP
LINE...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES OF KBLF AND KLWB. EAST OF THIS AREA
TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PATCHY AMONG A MORE PREDOMINATE LOW END VFR CEILING AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST
LOCATIONS AFTER ROUGHLY 02Z/8PM SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST.
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. KBLF WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS
THAT WILL GET A BIT STRONGER AND GUSTIER TOWARD MORNING. DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY...SURFACE GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE
AFTER ABOUT 15Z/10AM. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...850 MB WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH 50KTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA AT
THIS LEVEL. AT THE SURFACE...GUSTS WILL APPROACH 40KTS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 25KTS WILL BE MORE COMMON.
AS OF 1234 PM EST FRIDAY...
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCHANGED. FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDING ALONG THE FLOW AND MOVING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR REGION. EACH OF THESE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS CONCURRENT AND IN THE
WAKE OF EACH SYSTEM.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR VAZ007-009>016-018>020.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
VAZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ007.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-
020.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR WVZ042>045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-
043-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
THE MAIN SNOW BAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH REPORTS COMING
IN OF AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK...THE LIQUID TO SNOW EQUIVALENT RATIO IS LOWER THAN
WHAT IT HAS BEEN FOR MANY OF OUR SNOWS THIS WINTER AT AROUND 11 TO
1. THE FIRST WAVE OF SNOW WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE REGION SITS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH WARMER AIR SITTING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...THE COLUMN HAS LOST ICE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS OCCURRING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ICY ROAD CONDITIONS IN AREAS
THAT ROADS HAVE NOT BEEN TREATED.
WHILE WINDS ARE PICKING UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THIS WARM
SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MANY
OBSERVATIONS IN THIS AREA SHOWING ANY LOW VISIBILITIES FROM
BLOWING SNOW. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DRIZZLE THAT IS OCCURRING
AND SINCE THIS WAS A HIGHER LIQUID CONTENT SNOWFALL. THE NEXT CONCERN
COMES OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM DULUTH WEST TOWARD FARGO...PUSHES THROUGH AND BRINGS A SECOND
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS WITH IT. RADAR/OBS
ALONG THIS FRONT SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE LOOKING SNOW SHOWERS THAT
ALONG WITH THE STRONGER WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY
DROPS DOWN TO LESS THAN A MILE. 25.00Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD
WHEN FROPA OCCURS. THIS MATCHES WHAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH WHERE SOME OBS HAVE BEEN IN THAT RANGE ALONG THE FRONT.
CONDITIONS THEN SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE WINDS DROP
DOWN AND SKIES CLEAR OUT AS COLD AIR MOVES BACK IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DANGEROUS...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING...WIND CHILLS OF -35 TO
-45 EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH
THIS EVENING BRINING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW 1.5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS
OF DRIFTING AND POSSIBLY BLOWING SNOW THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SLICK STRETCHES ON AREA ROADS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY THIS EVENING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
MOVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR A BRIEF BREAK
IN THE ACTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A POTENT SYSTEM TAKES AIM
ON THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THIS ZONE OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSHING
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND POSSIBLY
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE FLUFFY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF FRESHLY FALLEN
SNOW WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH
DRIFTING SNOW. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH
WITH THIS PACKAGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THEN SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO -30 TO
-45. THE COMBINATION OF THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER WIND PRONE AREAS COULD CREATE A LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION IF YOU WERE TO BECOME STRANDED OUTDOORS.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME WHEN THE WIND CHILLS DROP TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
OR LOWER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE AT RECORD LOW VALUES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE -20 TO -25 RANGE. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF -35 TO -45 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO TEENS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AS THE SNOW HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
THE CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. AS THE COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35KT
RANGE. THIS COULD BLOW AROUND THE SNOW A LITTLE BIT...BUT RST HAS
BEEN BLOWING AT 29KTS WITH VISIBILITIES UP AROUND 8SM. SO...DO NOT
THINK THAT THE BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE ANY LOWER VIS DESPITE THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS COMING IN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WITH
WHETHER ANY SNOW WILL BE MAKING IT INTO RST OR LSE IN THE EVENING.
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF...BUT GOING OVERNIGHT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOWERING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...MONDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BETWEEN -5 AND -15 ON
MONDAY...SEVERAL RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET OR TIED.
MANY OF THESE RECORDS WERE SET IN EITHER 1902 OR 1972. BELOW ARE
THE RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THAT DAY.
AUSTIN MN -2 IN 1950
CHARLES CITY IA -5 IN 1904
DECORAH IA -4 IN 1902
LA CROSSE WI -4 IN 1902
MEDFORD WI -8 IN 1902
NEILLSVILLE WI -10 IN 1902
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI -1 IN 1904
RICHLAND CENTER WI 2 IN 1972
ROCHESTER MN -5 IN 1966
SPARTA WI -1 IN 1972
THEILMAN MN -8 IN 1972
WINONA MN -9 IN 1972
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ061.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
THINGS EVOLVING ABOUT AS EXPECTED WITH LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW
FILLING IN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE MODELS HAD ADVERTISED IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME RIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HRRR IS SHOWING
THAT STEADY SNOW IS MAXIMIZED RIGHT NOW AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN
THE 1-2 MILE RANGE WITH SEVERAL SITES MEASURING.
ALREADY LOOKING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREA...AND HRRR MOVES THAT AREA THROUGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM SO NEED TO KEEP DECENT COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR AWHILE.
GIVEN THAT STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND STEADY SNOW WILL END
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...PLAN ON LETTING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY END AT MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL PUT DOWN AN INCH
OR SO OF FRESH SNOW. BUT CONDITIONS SEEM TO HAVE BECOME MARGINAL
ENOUGH TO LET HEADLINES EXPIRE ON TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE ENDING UP CLOSE TO 30F AS ADVERTISED ON WARM NOSE
RIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THEN FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN LEVEL OFF NEAR THOSE LEVELS IN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME. WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO RANGE...SO CERTAINLY MAY HAVE SOME MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS BUT SEEMS LIKE WE CAN ESCAPE WITHOUT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO
THE IFR RANGE WHILE CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HOLDING UP IN MVFR AREA.
BULK OF SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER BUT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS STILL
EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST.
&&
.MARINE...
LET THE GALE EXPIRE AT 9PM AND CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THAT RUNS ANOTHE 24 HOURS TO SATURDAY EVENING AT 9PM. STILL
GUSTING AROUND 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT GRADUALLY
WINDING DOWN AS EXPECTED AS GRADIENT RELAXES.
WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND WILL BE GUSTING
INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE STEADILY
RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME
MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD... BUT FALLING SNOW WITH MODERATE WINDS COULD LEAD TO
LOWER VISIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THUS...NO CHANGE TO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE THAT EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. CURRENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THIS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FRONTOGENESIS
AND WEAK OMEGA WILL LEAD TO SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN
INCH...MAYBE UP TO 2 IN A FEW SPOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND BECOME A LITTLE LIGHTER DURING THE SNOWFALL THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW. THERE COULD
STILL BE A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT PLAN ON
WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES TO BE
DROPPING.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WI ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT NO
FURTHER ACCUMULATION. THE WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BLOW THE RECENT SNOW
AROUND...SO PLAN ON REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIFTING AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PLANNED TO COVER THE BLOWING SNOW AT THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY JUST
HANDLE IT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS
AROUND 10 DEGREES SATURDAY WILL OCCUR RIGHT AWAY IN THE
MORNING...WITH STEADILY FALLING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
BY THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
SOUTHEAST AROUND CENTRAL CANADA VORTEX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
PATH OF WAVE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WI/IL
BORDER AREA SUNDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION SERVES TO RAPIDLY MOISTEN THE AIR MASS AROUND/AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE...SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING REMAINS
FARTHER NORTH. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
REACHING 30 UNITS AFFECTING SOUTHERN WI AROUND 12Z/26. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KEEP HIGH POPS GOING LATE SAT NIGHT...CARRYING OVER
INTO SUN MRNG.
SECONDARY SPOKE OF LAYER VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND POLAR LOW LATER
SUNDAY. WHILE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH THIS SECOND
SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH...IT DOES CONTRIBUTE TO ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WI SUN AFTN AND EVE. 85H TEMPS TUMBLE
TO AROUND -25 BY 12Z/MONDAY WITH THE COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIGHTLY MODIFYING. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW ZERO.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WINTER WX ADVY MAY BE ISSUED FOR FALLING SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
BLOWING SNOW THREAT ON SUNDAY...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO BE
NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WIND CHILL WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MAY BE ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS...HOWEVER WL GET CLOSE TO
WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA IN WESTERN AREAS BRIEFLY MON MRNG. AT
THIS POINT...MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD WITH LOWEST WIND CHILLS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
INITIALLY TRENDING TO LOW ON THU/FRI.
THE BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE PERIOD AS SLUG OF 85H AIR WITH TEMPS BTWN 18 AND 22 BELOW ZERO
LINGERS. 85H STANDARDIZED ANOMOLIES ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 3 FOR
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING LATER TUESDAY CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE/CLIPPERY TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED AROUND THU PERIOD. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
GTLAKES WED NGT AND THU...CARRYING VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI
EARLY THU. 12Z GFS HAS NOW SWITCHED TO A SIMILAR SOLUTION...WITH
CLIPPER AFFECTING WI ON THU. ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FAIR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCE
FOR -SN ON THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH REGION. SRN WI
RECEIVES ONLY A GLANCING BLOW FROM CORE OF COLD AIR LATER THU INTO
THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
RETURNING FOR FRI.
GFS 5 DAY ANOMOLIES CENTERED 00Z/29 SHOWS LARGE NEGATIVE ANOMOLY OF
200M ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR VORTEX OVER SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT DOES WEAKEN A BIT BY 00Z/01 AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST. APPEARS WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FINISH OFF THE MONTH.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...STRONG AND GUSTY SWLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO 1.0-3.0 KFT
BY EARLY EVENING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THE SNOW ARRIVAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE DELAYED A COUPLE OF
HOURS.
VSBYS WITH THE SNOW EXPECTED FALL TO AROUND 1 MILE. THE PASSAGE OF
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BEGIN TO DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT. THUS THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 09Z FOR
KMSN AND BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z OVER THE SE WI TAF SITES. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THIS PERIOD BUT BLOWING SNOW MAY
STILL LIMIT VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
MARINE...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING. AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
AFTERWARD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO CARRY A GALE AT THIS TIME.
THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT EVENING. THERE IS A LARGE ICE
COVER OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT HIGH WAVES AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ARE EXPECTED TOWARD OPEN WATERS WHERE MUCH LESS ICE EXISTS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ046-
047-051-052-056>060-062>072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CRAVEN
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
841 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
THE MAIN SNOW BAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH REPORTS COMING
IN OF AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK...THE LIQUID TO SNOW EQUIVALENT RATIO IS LOWER THAN
WHAT IT HAS BEEN FOR MANY OF OUR SNOWS THIS WINTER AT AROUND 11 TO
1. THE FIRST WAVE OF SNOW WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE REGION SITS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH WARMER AIR SITTING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...THE COLUMN HAS LOST ICE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS OCCURRING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ICY ROAD CONDITIONS IN AREAS
THAT ROADS HAVE NOT BEEN TREATED.
WHILE WINDS ARE PICKING UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THIS WARM
SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MANY
OBSERVATIONS IN THIS AREA SHOWING ANY LOW VISIBILITIES FROM
BLOWING SNOW. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DRIZZLE THAT IS OCCURRING
AND SINCE THIS WAS A HIGHER LIQUID CONTENT SNOWFALL. THE NEXT CONCERN
COMES OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM DULUTH WEST TOWARD FARGO...PUSHES THROUGH AND BRINGS A SECOND
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS WITH IT. RADAR/OBS
ALONG THIS FRONT SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE LOOKING SNOW SHOWERS THAT
ALONG WITH THE STRONGER WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY
DROPS DOWN TO LESS THAN A MILE. 25.00Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD
WHEN FROPA OCCURS. THIS MATCHES WHAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH WHERE SOME OBS HAVE BEEN IN THAT RANGE ALONG THE FRONT.
CONDITIONS THEN SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE WINDS DROP
DOWN AND SKIES CLEAR OUT AS COLD AIR MOVES BACK IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DANGEROUS...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING...WIND CHILLS OF -35 TO
-45 EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH
THIS EVENING BRINING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW 1.5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS
OF DRIFTING AND POSSIBLY BLOWING SNOW THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SLICK STRETCHES ON AREA ROADS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY THIS EVENING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
MOVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR A BRIEF BREAK
IN THE ACTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A POTENT SYSTEM TAKES AIM
ON THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THIS ZONE OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSHING
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND POSSIBLY
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE FLUFFY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF FRESHLY FALLEN
SNOW WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH
DRIFTING SNOW. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH
WITH THIS PACKAGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THEN SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO -30 TO
-45. THE COMBINATION OF THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER WIND PRONE AREAS COULD CREATE A LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION IF YOU WERE TO BECOME STRANDED OUTDOORS.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME WHEN THE WIND CHILLS DROP TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
OR LOWER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE AT RECORD LOW VALUES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE -20 TO -25 RANGE. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF -35 TO -45 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO TEENS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
SNOW HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO RST AND WILL REACH LSE SHORTLY AS AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE ABOUT A 3 HOUR SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO A HALF
MILE AT ITS WORSE PERIOD. BY 3Z...THE SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF BOTH
SITES THOUGH WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE
FIRST COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO 3SM OR
POSSIBLY LOWER. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR UNTIL THE SECOND COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AND COLDER AIR
IN WITH IT. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL COME AFTER THIS FRONT
COMES THROUGH WITH SOME 30 TO 40KT GUSTS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.CLIMATE...MONDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BETWEEN -5 AND -15 ON
MONDAY...SEVERAL RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET OR TIED.
MANY OF THESE RECORDS WERE SET IN EITHER 1902 OR 1972. BELOW ARE
THE RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THAT DAY.
AUSTIN MN -2 IN 1950
CHARLES CITY IA -5 IN 1904
DECORAH IA -4 IN 1902
LA CROSSE WI -4 IN 1902
MEDFORD WI -8 IN 1902
NEILLSVILLE WI -10 IN 1902
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI -1 IN 1904
RICHLAND CENTER WI 2 IN 1972
ROCHESTER MN -5 IN 1966
SPARTA WI -1 IN 1972
THEILMAN MN -8 IN 1972
WINONA MN -9 IN 1972
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ061.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DANGEROUS...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING...WIND CHILLS OF -35 TO
-45 EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH
THIS EVENING BRINING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW 1.5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS
OF DRIFTING AND POSSIBLY BLOWING SNOW THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SLICK STRETCHES ON AREA ROADS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY THIS EVENING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
MOVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR A BRIEF BREAK
IN THE ACTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A POTENT SYSTEM TAKES AIM
ON THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THIS ZONE OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSHING
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND POSSIBLY
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE FLUFFY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF FRESHLY FALLEN
SNOW WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH
DRIFTING SNOW. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH
WITH THIS PACKAGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THEN SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO -30 TO
-45. THE COMBINATION OF THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER WIND PRONE AREAS COULD CREATE A LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION IF YOU WERE TO BECOME STRANDED OUTDOORS.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME WHEN
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE AT RECORD LOW VALUES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE -20 TO -25 RANGE. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF -35 TO -45 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO TEENS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
THE REGION AS WELL AND IT WILL PRODUCE A 4 TO 5 HOUR BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AS IT COMES THROUGH. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF
THE SNOW WITH THE 24.14Z HRRR SHOWING IT STARTING AT BOTH TAF
SITES AROUND 22Z WHILE THE 24.12Z NAM DOES NOT BRING IT IN UNTIL
00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODELS AND HAVE STAYED WITH THAT TIMING OF 23Z. EXPECT TO SEE THE
VISIBILITY GO DOWN TO IFR IN THE SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE
SNOW ENDS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL COME
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BLOWING
SNOW AT KRST WITH MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN
ENOUGH FOR THE BLOWING SNOW TO END AT KRST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...MONDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BETWEEN -5 AND -15 ON
MONDAY...SEVERAL RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET OR TIED.
MANY OF THESE RECORDS WERE SET IN EITHER 1902 OR 1972. BELOW ARE
THE RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THAT DAY.
AUSTIN MN -2 IN 1950
CHARLES CITY IA -5 IN 1904
DECORAH IA -4 IN 1902
LA CROSSE WI -4 IN 1902
MEDFORD WI -8 IN 1902
NEILLSVILLE WI -10 IN 1902
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI -1 IN 1904
RICHLAND CENTER WI 2 IN 1972
ROCHESTER MN -5 IN 1966
SPARTA WI -1 IN 1972
THEILMAN MN -8 IN 1972
WINONA MN -9 IN 1972
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ061.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1110 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST WI EARLY
THIS MORNING...PER LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
RESULTING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY FROM THE I-94 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...A BIT STRONGER...DROPS IN
TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW. OVERALL...1
TO 2 INCHES LOOKS LIKELY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH MOST
ACCUMULATIONS COMING THIS EVENING. BLUSTERY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER...SOME
DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY...SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
STORM...WATCHES...WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES.
PART 1
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT/SUN...WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY LEADING IT IN. STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K SFCS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN...WITH LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER BULLS-EYEING THE AREA AT
12Z. HEFTY THERMODYNAMICS...BUT QUICK MOVING. THE STORM/S SFC WARM
FRONT MOVES IN FIRST...ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SUN...WITH A SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE INDICATED VIA
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST RUNNING X-SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS EAST
INTO MICH. SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD COME WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS/QG
CONVERGENCE FROM 850-500 MB/AND THE LEADING PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. THE SNOW WILL MOVE IN BY LATE SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE MAIN SNOW BAND SHIFTING EAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE...SOUNDINGS AND X-
SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT A WINTRY MIX WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POTENTIALITY
COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH MORE WARMING AND A SHALLOWER CLOUD DEPTH
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SUGGESTS A LOSS OF ICE IN
THE CLOUD AND POSSIBLY SOME MELTING...THUS BRINGING LIQUID/SLEET
INTO THE PICTURE. THAT SAID...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH/ICE IN CLOUD THAT IT WOULD BE
SNOW. STILL...ANOTHER ELEMENT TO WHAT IS GOING TO BE SOME VERY
UNPLEASANT DAYS. AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
THE QUICK NATURE OF THIS STORM HOLDING AMOUNTS DOWN. SOME ICING
COULD ALSO RESULT...SHOULD FREEZING PCPN/SLEET BE REALIZED.
PART 2
WINDS ARE GOING TO INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON...STAYING STRONG
INTO THE NIGHT. THE NAM IS VERY STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...MIXING DOWN
AS MUCH AS 47 KTS AT KRST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KTS LESS. EITHER SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA...ALONG WITH RIDGE-TOPS...COULD SEE
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...VSBYS 1/2 MILE OR LESS WITH LOTS
OF BLOWING ACROSS ROADWAYS.
PART 3
BRUTAL...POTENTIALLY DEADLY COLD MOVES IN FOR MON/TUE POST
THIS SUNDAY STORM. ECMWF 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES FALL TO -2.5 BY 12
MON...WITH -28C AT 850 MB DEPICTED IN THE GFS. HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL BE AROUND IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE REGION HOLDS UNDER THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHILE A SFC HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
CLOUDS OBVIOUSLY ADD AN INSULATION FACTOR...WHILE CLEAR SKIES WOULD
GIVE AN ADDITIONAL DROP IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW...LOWS IN THE -20S ARE PROBABLE TUE...WITH MINUS TEENS MON/WED.
HIGHS AREN/T LIKELY TO CRACK ZERO UNTIL WED. IN FACT...THE WHOLE
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WILL BE SUB ZERO. ADD
IN WINDS...AND WIND CHILLS -40 OR COLDER ARE LIKELY LATE SUN
NIGHT/MON MORNING AND AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. THIS COLD
GOES FROM DANGEROUS TO DEADLY IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. WIND
CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.
SOMEWHAT QUIET FOR SNOW CHANCES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK.
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OR WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DISAGREE WITH HOW TO HANDLE A SHORTWAVE THAT BOTH SUGGEST WILL DROP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THU. THE GFS FAVORS KEEPING ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE EC RIDES ITS A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. DON/T HAVE A
PREFERRED SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS THIS GO AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
THE REGION AS WELL AND IT WILL PRODUCE A 4 TO 5 HOUR BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AS IT COMES THROUGH. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF
THE SNOW WITH THE 24.14Z HRRR SHOWING IT STARTING AT BOTH TAF
SITES AROUND 22Z WHILE THE 24.12Z NAM DOES NOT BRING IT IN UNTIL
00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODELS AND HAVE STAYED WITH THAT TIMING OF 23Z. EXPECT TO SEE THE
VISIBILITY GO DOWN TO IFR IN THE SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE
SNOW ENDS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL COME
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BLOWING
SNOW AT KRST WITH MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN
ENOUGH FOR THE BLOWING SNOW TO END AT KRST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 SOUTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS AND NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT ONLY TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
BITTER COLD WILL ALSO RETURN BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. THEN...SNOW
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND FINALLY A BREAK FROM
THE RELENTLESS WINDS EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. TEMPS HAD
TUMBLED QUICKLY IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AS OF 03Z.
ENDLESS STREAM OF CLIPPERS CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT ONE RAPIDLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES. HAVE SOME CONCERN
THAT DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL A BIT
AS THIS SYSTEM SWINGS INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMS BETWEEN 09-12Z...AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE DRY LAYER WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOT BEING
ERODED COMPLETELY. WHILE DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL INTENSITY...
RATIOS WILL BE UP IN THE 15-18 TO 1 RANGE WHICH WILL COMPENSATE A
BIT. 00Z NAM AND RAP HAVE BOTH COME IN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MAIN
SWATH OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK LIGHT SNOW WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70.
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 06-07Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE IN
RESPONSE TO CLOUDS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES AS THE PRECIP
ARRIVES. FORECAST LOWS LOOKED REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE.
PERTINENT PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVER EVOLVING AND HISTORIC
JANUARY 2014 WINTER. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AS WILL A CLIPPER THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. 285K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AFTER 09Z SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH AROUND 15Z. MIXING RATIOS
WERE FROM 2 TO 3 G/KG WHICH FOR A SOLID 12 HOUR SNOW WOULD NORMALLY
PRODUCE AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE BEST LIFT
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST 6 HOURS...2 TO 3 INCHES
LOOKS GOOD MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF INDIANAPOLIS AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TO THE NORTHWEST OF INDY.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESSER TO THE SOUTH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST AREAS COULD ALSO SEE A MIX OF THE SNOW WITH
RAIN WHICH COULD FURTHER REDUCE AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...WENT ON THE COLD
SIDE OF MOS WITH THE SNOW PACK AND TRENDS AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
MIX DOWN THERE AS OF YET. WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY SINCE
BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
WIND CHILLS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL WELL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY...AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WIND CHILLS BELOW 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE
LIKELY THERE BEFORE 12Z MONDAY...SO STARTED A WIND CHILL WATCH AT
10Z MONDAY. WE INCLUDED THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORT TERM
WILL SHOW THAT ALL COUNTIES SEE WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW NEGATIVE 15
BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON TRENDS AND SNOW PACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
TEMPERATURES...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE SHORT
TERM.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AXIS OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG JUST AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE...ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S. THEN...WINDS WILL DIE OFF A
BUT MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO REACH 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR LOWER UNDER CLEARING SKIES...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE
NEAR MINUS 40 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. THE SOUTH WILL ALSO BE
COLD BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILLS TO MINUS 20. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
SHOULD BE VERY NEAR WHAT THEY WERE AFTER THE SNOW STORM OF JANUARY
5TH OF THIS YEAR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH THE COLDEST 925
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES OF 27 BELOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY NOT EVEN WARM UP TO ZERO
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
A SLOW WARM UP IS PROGGED FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES START OUT
BITTERLY COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND THEN 20S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY THAT WILL
BRING SNOW TO THE AREA SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS GIVEN FROM
INITIALIZATION. BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE WARM ADVECTION
AND A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ACCESS TO
MOISTURE. UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN WILL WARM
AND SATURATE SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX. MADE
MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE INITIALIZATION FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 WITHIN SNOW
NEAR DAYBREAK.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER DIVING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS ALREADY RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER...AND
EXPECT SKIES TO CLOUD UP BY 09-10Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRIER
AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING INTO THE DAY...WHICH MAY
LIMIT SNOWFALL A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...SWATH OF STEADIER SNOW APPEARS
TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MAIN IMPACTS
FROM SNOW LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO KLAF...AND POSSIBLY KIND AT
TIMES...THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY YET AGAIN BY MIDDAY WITH BLOWING SNOW ONCE
AGAIN AN ISSUE AT ALL TERMINALS. MAX GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT
25-30KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST BY
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION. ARCTIC FRONT POISED TO SWING INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...LIKELY PASSING THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 03-06Z. SHALLOW
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTIVE OF A BAND OR
BANDS OF SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...LIKELY BRINGING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...RYAN/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1250 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC
ON MONDAY DRIVING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBERVATIONAL DATA. ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS VT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NH AND ME OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ISOLD SNOW SQUALLS
ARE POSSIBLE AND RAPID TEMPERATURE DROPS ARE EXPECTED.
9 PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IN NEW YORK STATE...A LONG LINE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...REACHING WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 07Z. THE INTENSITY OF THIS BAND SHOULD WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
USED WIND EFFECT TOOL TO BRING SLIGHTLY MORE SNOWFALL TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AS WNW FLOW DEVELOPS.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.
MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS PACKAGE.
PREV DISC...AT 19Z...A 984 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOW
WILL TRACK TO NEAR THE GASPE PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY DRAGGING THE
COLD FRONTS QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE`LL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION FROM THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER AREA WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION MAYBE JUST INLAND FROM THE MID COAST WHERE OCEAN
EFFECT CONTINUES. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID COAST...THE STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES UP WELL INTO THE 30S
WHERE MELTING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX WITH OR BRIEF CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AS FUNNELING BETWEEN THE VARIOUS PENINSULA`S MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WE`LL SEE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR...BUT VERY COLD AND WINDY ON SUNDAY AS ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT A
GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN APPRECIABLE WIND
CHILL. IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE WIND CHILL HEADLINES POSTED FOR AT
LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WINDS DROP OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER DUSK THEN SHOULD
STABILIZE AS CLOUDS ARRIVE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE...WITH LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOWS BREAKING OUT MAINLY
NORTH OF A LEBANON /KLEB/ TO PORTLAND /KPWM/ LINE IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEPLY AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY USHERING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR EVERY 24-36 HOURS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
MOISTURE RETURN ISN`T GOOD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT SHUTS
PRECIPITATION OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE NEAR 1-3 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
OVER THE MIDCOAST.
DENSE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. IT SUCCEEDS IN HOLDING OFF THE
NEXT SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY THIS TIME THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE MODERATED SOMEWHAT AND UPPER LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE ZERO DEGREE SURFACE ISOTHERM JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER.
AFTER A WARM UP INTO THE 20S AND 30S MONDAY...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS FROM NEAR ZERO TO -10 DEGREES
F AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS/20S SOUTH. A
SW/W WIND CONTRIBUTES TOWARDS A GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH WND GUSTS TO 25 KT. VFR SUNDAY WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO
25 KT. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING AFT 06Z MON IN LIGHT SNOW.
LONG TERM...AREAS OF LIFR/IFR/MVFR BECOMING VFR MONDAY BY NOON AS
SHOWERS MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PERIODS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY BE GUSTY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...GALES FOR ALL WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. A BREAK IN THE GALES IS
EXPECTED FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE THEY REDEVELOP BEHIND AN ARCTIC
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY RETURN
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...HENCE A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE BORDERLINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...HOWEVER WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5
FT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SEAS CALM DOWN SOMEWHAT FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001-
002.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
324 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
Big warm-up on tap for today with well-above average temps. Winds
have already swung around to southerly overnight and temps have
been slowly creeping upward. The warm front now extending from the
surface low in north central Iowa into western MO will surge
eastward across the CWA this morning as the surface low moves into
the Great Lakes, with winds veering to southwest and then westerly
and strong warm advection across the area. I have boosted temps
from the previous forecast and am close to the last few hourly
runs of the RAP which appear to have a good handle on the current
temperatures here and upstream. Highs in most locations should get
into the 50s. Enjoy the warmth...it ends tonight!
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
A powerful Arctic cold front will drive like a freight train through
the CWA tonight. A strong pressure gradient and large pressure
rises behind the front all point to very strong and gusty NW winds
with the fropa. Have issued a wind advisory for all but southeast
Missouri anticipating a 3-4 period with sustained winds of 25-35
mph and gusts of 45+. In addition to intense cold advection and
plummeting temperatures, it appears that strong low level
frontogenetic forcing and weak large scale ascent will produce a
narrow band of snow immediately in the cold air. The band will be
moving so quickly and the wind blowing so hard that any
accumulations will be very light. Dangerous wind chills of 15 to
20 below zero are still on target late tonight and into Tuesday
morning across northeast MO into central IL due to various
combinations of the wind and bitterly cold ambient air
temperatures. The previously issued wind chill advisory looks
right on target for the anticipated high threat area. The bitterly
cold Arctic air mass will dominate the area into Tuesday, and will
be the coldest since the early January Arctic Outbreak.
During the later half of the week ahead and into next weekend the
upper air pattern finally breaks down. The longwave trof which has
dominated eastern NOAM for weeks will weaken and shift northeastward
as amplfication occurs from the eastern Pacific into the western
U.S. and the negative phase of the PNA pattern becomes established.
There are some important differences in the deterministic model
solutions during this time frame with regards to shortwave
features with the developing wsw flow aloft, the location of a
baroclinic zone and the depth/magnitude of cold air. This leads
to greater uncertainty than normal in the details, however all
guidance points to increasing precipitation chances next weekend
and potential for wintery precipitation.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2014
Low level wind shear continues to be the primary focus for the
rest of the night. A 50-60kt low level jet between 1000-2000ft
will develop over the next 2 to 6 hours from north to south ahead
of the next clipper to affect the region. Wind shear conditions
will persist until mid-morning when the low level inversion will
mix out and winds will begin to gust. Luckily by that time it
looks like the clipper will have turned the corner and begun
moving away so gusts should only be around 25kts across most of
the area. VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through
Sunday afternoon into the early evening. A sharp cold front will
move into the area between 00Z and 03Z Sunday evening. The front
will barrel through the area like a freight train with the wind
turning sharply to the north-northwest. Sustained winds in excess
of 30kts with gusts to 40kts or more look likely for several hours
behind the front. Some light snow also looks possible. Unsure how
low the ceilings will go, but MVFR is likely behind the front
with conditions possibly slipping to IFR in the snow showers.
Specifics for KSTL:
Low level wind shear continues to be the primary focus for the
rest of the night. A 50-60kt low level jet between 1000-2000ft
will develop toward 10Z ahead of the next clipper to affect the
region. Wind shear conditions will persist until mid-morning when
the low level inversion will mix out and winds will begin to gust.
Luckily by that time it looks like the clipper will have turned
the corner and begun moving away so gusts should be 25kts or less.
VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday
afternoon into the early evening. A sharp cold front will pass
across the terminal between 04-05Z. The front will barrel through
the area like a freight train with the wind turning sharply to the
north- northwest. Sustained winds in excess of 25kts with gusts to
40kts or more look likely for several hours behind the front. Some
light snow also looks possible. Unsure how low ceilings will go,
but MVFR is likely behind the front with conditions possibly
slipping to IFR in the snow showers.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 56 6 12 0 / 5 30 0 0
Quincy 49 -1 5 -7 / 10 40 0 0
Columbia 56 6 13 -2 / 0 30 0 0
Jefferson City 58 8 14 -1 / 0 30 0 0
Salem 51 6 10 -2 / 5 30 5 0
Farmington 58 10 15 -1 / 0 30 5 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Warren MO.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM Monday to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-
Shelby MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM Monday to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
330 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
TURNING WINDY AND SHARPLY COLD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HUDSON BAY AND AND SWINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS...ALLOWING
ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DRASTIC END TO OUR WARMER
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES
ABOARD INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS.
CURRENTLY A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN STEADY/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM
TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MILD IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS SOME MID LEVEL
WARM AIR HAS MIXED TO THE SFC THE TEMP AT ORD JUMPED TO 53 DEGREES
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH FOR THIS AREA TODAY.
UPSTREAM...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS ADVANCING SOUTH THRU CANADA
TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD WEATHER WITH STEADY/GUSTY
WINDS WITH WINDS TRENDING UP FURTHER BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INCREASES/DEEPENS.
THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING WILL SEE THE BIGGER WEATHER
CHANGES AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 21Z
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ARCTIC FRONT REACHES THE NEB/KS STATELINE
BY 00Z AND CLEARS OUR CWA BY 03Z. TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY FALL IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS N/S THIS AFTN/EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG VERY
IMPRESSIVE THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER
OF 12MB. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP MIXING AS HIGH AS H8
WILL LEAD TO INTENSE WINDS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/WIND GUSTS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES. STILL HAVE
CONCERNS FOR REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER PER RAP SOUNDINGS AVERAGE
NEAR 50KTS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY...AND
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNING IF WINDS TREND UP
MUCH FURTHER. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN FRONTOGENESIS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT WITH LLVL MOISTURE LACKING.
TONIGHT...A 1040MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FM THE DAKOTAS ONTO
THE PLAINS...AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD MORNING
AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPS IN THE ARCTIC AIR WITH THE STEADY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
FRIGID WIND CHILLS AT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR
LOCATIONS IN NEBRASKA ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE
COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION.
IF TEMPS TREND LOWER OR WINDS REMAIN STRONGER FARTHER SOUTH...THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WIND CHILLS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND CHILL
READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 20 BELOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 15 BELOW IN THE FAR NORTH
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THE FAR NORTH AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA OFF AND ON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS TIME THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
BOTH HAVE A LITTLE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014
THE FOCUS FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ON WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND WINDS WILL BE STEADY/GUSTY FROM
THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER ABOVE THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MAINTAINED LLWS IN THE TAF. THE WINDS BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
BY LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH NORTHWESTERLY. BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS KGRI WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING FURTHER. HAVE WENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 40KTS OR GREATER POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG/GUSTY IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THRU THE EVENING HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ072>077-082>087.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
...VERY WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN BITTER COLD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST SETTING UP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF ARCTIC FRONTS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LEFT US WITHIN A VERY MILD REGIME WITH
TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. WHILE TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT`S GOING TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE...MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA 18-21Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
21-00Z. HAVE NO DOUBT WE`LL MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...THE
BIG QUESTION IS IF WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA...AS THEY HAVE WITH SEVERAL PREVIOUS FRONTS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT WE`LL
MIX VERY DEEP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR UP TO 750/725 MB.
WINDS AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE QUITE STRONG AT 60 TO 70 KNOTS. NAM
AND RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL BOTH
SUGGESTING THAT SURFACE WINDS COULD GUST TO 50 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. OTHER MODEL SUITES AREN`T QUITE AS STRONG.
COMPOUNDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE WINDS...THERE COULD BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...INITIALLY RAIN AND THEN SNOW...WHICH WILL
HELP WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. NAM DOESN`T DEVELOP
MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT NEARLY ALL OTHER MODEL SUITES DO. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT A CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
SURGE OF COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY SHOWN BY 03Z HOPWRF RUNS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY VISIBILITY DROPS ONCE THE PRECIP CHANGES
TO SNOW AS WELL...AND WHETHER THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK HALF INCH OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
HAVE OPTED TO CONVERT THE HIGH WIND WATCH INTO A HIGH WIND
WARNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I80. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...THUS WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES...
WHERE MOMENTUM MIXING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG SINCE THE SUN WILL
HAVE SET BY THEN. HIGH WIND WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE CONVERTED
INTO A WIND ADVISORY AS SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL SUBSIDES THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT WOULD BEST BE MANAGED IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH
UPDATES BASED ON REAL TIME REPORTS.
SECONDARY IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY IS THE ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.
READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...SIMILAR TO THE ARCTIC SURGE OF LAST WEEK. WHEN COUPLED
WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 29 BELOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUS WILL HAVE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COLD DAY MONDAY...AND SUB ZERO
READINGS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MONDAY
MORNING...BUT BECAUSE IT`S COLDER...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 28 BELOW OVER SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
A COLD DAY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH THE EXTENDED INVOLVE ANOTHER FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DECENT POTENTIAL TO WARM BACK INTO THE 30S...THEN COLDER
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AND STILL SOME SMALL POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF
MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE THAT.
BIGGER CONCERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS
PAINTING A FAIRLY ROBUST WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES GIVING US
A PRETTY CHANCE OF SNOW. THE ECMWF ALSO HAVE A WAVE...BUT IS A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER AND WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...
WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE
THIS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SNOW CHANCES MAY BE INCREASING LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN SD WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO ERN IA BY 12Z
SUNDAY AND SHIFT SFC WINDS FROM SW TO NW AT TAF SITES BEFORE 09Z.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE COULD STILL
BRING WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES TONIGHT AS THESE WINDS
REMAIN STRONGER WITH MORE OF NORTH COMPONENT THAN SFC WINDS.
ALTHOUGH AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME NW LATER TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR
COULD BECOME LESS OF A THREAT. AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF WIND
GUSTS AS WINDS BECOME NW...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME IN THE
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MIDDAY AS MIXING DEEPENS.
AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL PRESS INTO NERN NEBR AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER NOON WILL RACE INTO SERN NEBR BY 00Z. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL BOOST TO WINDS AND SHIFT THEM TO MORE NRLY. IN
ADDITION...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG COOLING BEHIND
FRONT COULD BRING SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. MAIN THREAT
STILL APPEARED TO BE OVER NERN NEBR WHERE A PROB30 MENTION WAS
MAINTAINED IN KOFK TAF.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ045-050>053-065>067.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ068-078-088>093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ030-
042>045-050>053-065>068.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR IAZ090-091.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ069-079-
080-090-091.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
IAZ043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1129 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
I LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP AND WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL BE MET. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE
ERIE WERE DECREASING WHILE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO WOOD COUNTY WAS PRODUCING SOME SNOW. BOTH BANDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WINDS AT 925 MB SHIFTS FROM
THE NW TO THE WEST AND THEN THE SW BY DAYBREAK. INCREASED THE POPS
FOR A FEW HOURS OVER NW OHIO AND ADDED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. THE
BANDS OF SNOW OVER NE OHIO WILL SHIFT A LITTLE. NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. SNOW
SQUALLS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO SINCE 1 PM AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEARS DOWN UPON US. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO THE
SNOW SQUALLS AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH 7 PM...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TO PUSH INLAND INTO
THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH.
1000-850MB OMEGA HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB HIGHLIGHTING THIS
THREAT AND BOTH THE NAM12 AND RUC13 SHOWS THE PEAK HAS OCCURRED.
CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ADVISORY IN NW OHIO BUT THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS OVER NRN INDIANA WILL
SPREAD INTO NW OHIO AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...AN INCH OR LOCALLY UP TO 2...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW AN INCH. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH
HOWEVER THAT THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH CONTINUING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
AROUND 8-12 MPH BY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WHOLE AREA STARTING AFTER 10 PM AS THE NEXT PUSH OF REALLY
COLD AIR ARRIVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. SNOWFALL MAY BE AS HIGH AS 2-3 INCHES IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH BRISK WIND
TO CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO WHERE THE
LANDSCAPE IS MORE OPEN. ELSEWHERE SNOW WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS FROM TOLEDO TO
MOUNT VERNON BUT WANTED TO KEEP IT SEPARATE FROM THE CURRENT
HEADLINES AS THERE WILL BE A SIZEABLE BREAK IN THE SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON SUNDAY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN NW PA TO UPPER 2OS IN
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 DEGREES NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND -10 TO -15 DEGREES INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR -25 AND WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF
NEEDING EITHER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MODERATION IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AS THE POLAR
VORTEX LESSONS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND RETREATS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. HOWEVER ONE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
WILL PIVOT AROUND THE VORTEX NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE RATHER SIMILAR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WHICH ADDS TO FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
FRIGID TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODERATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING BUT WITH ONLY MODEST
COOLING AND WON`T BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE AIRMASS PRESENT OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST FOR SATURDAY AS A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MULTI LAKE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO LAKE ERIE. SOME
OF THE STRONGER BANDS ARE PRODUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. EXPECT AS FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE SOUTHWEST THAT
THESE BANDS WILL MIGRATE BACK NORTH TOWARD THE LAKE SHORE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP WITH TIME AND THEN
IMPROVE TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS
OTHER WISE WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO MONDAY. NON VFR MAINLY IN THE SNOW BELT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED SO WAVES ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. A
VERY CHANGEABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS QUICKLY
CROSSING THE REGION WITH WELL DEFINED WIND FIELDS THAT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW GALE WARNING THRESHOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON... WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CROSSES
THE CENTRAL LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...BC/LAPLANTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
706 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY. AROUND THE VORTEX...ONE SHORTWAVE IS
SWINGING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND MUCH STRONGER
WAVE IS DROPPING THRU SRN MANITOBA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. FIRST WAVE IS
SPREADING AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WI/NRN IL/NRN IN. SNOW THEN
EXTENDS BACK TO THE NW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE. FORCING AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING -SN SPREADING INTO THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE REALLY CHANGED THE
ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS WILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR
AS ICE COVER IN THE MODELS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT
STATE OF ICE. THUS...MODELS WILL BE INCORRECTLY HANDLING
WINDS/CONVERGENCE/LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THE ICE COVER THAT WAS ROUGHLY
BTWN MANITOU ISLAND AND SHOT POINT WEST TO KEWEENAW BAY IS CLEARLY
BROKEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECENT HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES AS WAS EVIDENT
FROM THE SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS THAT STREAMED INTO MARQUETTE/WRN
ALGER COUNTIES YESTEDAY. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS PLENTY OF
OPEN WATER. A BIG PORTION OF THE ICE THAT WAS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
APPEARS TO BE OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR NOW.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL FCST THINKING SINCE YESTERDAY.
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE WRN LAKES. THERE`S NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AS MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO
1G/KG. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCSTS...EXPECT A
GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL TODAY. SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL PROBABLY MAKE
FOR LOWER VIS THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE
850MB WINDS BACK ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AT LOWER LEVELS...WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE AS MESOLOW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ENHANCMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT N TO
NW AND STRENGTHEN WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE OPEN WATER...SNOW MAY BE HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE W. EVEN SO...WITH DGZ ELIMINATED BY COLD AIR...LOW
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
MORE CRITICAL PART OF THE FCST IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. DIMINISHING GRADIENT WIND FIELD AND STRENGTHENING LAND
BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY LEADING TO MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SE LAKE
SUPERIOR PER SFC/MARINE OBS. WITH STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY
SHORTWAVE...MESOLOW SHOULD REALLY SPIN UP TODAY AS IT DRIFTS N OR
NW. ALL HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS...BUT TREND
HAS BEEN FOR A MORE EWD TRACK AS THE LOW HEADS BACK S WITH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE LATE AFTN/EVENING. CONSENSUS IS GENERALLY FOR LANDFALL NEAR
GRAND MARAIS. A BAND OF HVY LES IS EXPECTED ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
LOW...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY INDICATING THIS BAND AFFECTING
THE AREA BTWN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL ICE
COVER TOO EXTENSIVE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW...WOULD EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT LES TO IMPACT AREAS FARTHER W IN ALGER COUNTY EVEN IF
LOW IN FACT DOES MOVE ONSHORE NEAR GRAND MARAIS. HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A CORE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS (950MB WINDS OF 40-50KT) ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LOW AIMED
TOWARD THE MUNISING AREA. COMBINED WITH MESOSCALE PRES RISE/FALL
COUPLET...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BTWN DEERTON AND MUNISING. HAVE THUS
CONVERTED BLIZZARD WATCH TO WARNING FOR ALGER COUNTY...AND ISSUED
LES ADVY FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WHERE WINDS FARTHER INLAND WON`T BE
NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT. WRN EDGE OF STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL CLIP
KEWEENAW COUNTY...SO ALSO ISSUED LES ADVY THERE TONIGHT/MON MORNING
FOR CONSIDERABLE BLSN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE 2-3
INCHES. DURING THE DAY...WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT EXPANDING
ADVY OVER WRN UPPER MI AS SUFFICIENT OPEN WATER EXISTS TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD -SHSN WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VIS WHEN COMBINED WITH
OCNL BLSN.
ELSEWHERE...CONVERTED WIND CHILL WATCH TO WARNING LATE TONIGHT AS
WIND CHILLS DROP TO NEAR OR BLO -35F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE FIRST 2 DAYS /THROUGH
TUESDAY/.
FOR MON...AT 12Z THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER FAR
SERN ONTARIO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE
SFC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SHARP AS THE CLIPPER LOW DEPARTS
THE REGION AND A 1040MB HIGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES...AND
HIGH RES MODEL INDICATE A MESO LOW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON
MORNING. ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESO LOW WILL BE VERY
STRONG WINDS AND A STRONG LES BAND THAT LOOKS TO BE OVER ALGER
COUNTY. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW 925MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS W OF THE MESO
LOW...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM MON
NIGHT /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION/ INTO MON MORNING. BY 18Z MON...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE
MESO LOW SHIFTING TO THE E...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
AND NW WINDS THAT WERE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO BECOME MORE WLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL SHIFT LES WHILE WEAKENING IT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING OUT. WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS FROM THE WINDS
AND SNOW MORE FOCUSED DURING SUN NIGHT /SHORT TERM FORECAST/...WILL
TALK ABOUT THE COLD TEMPS FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE -30C TO -35C FROM 12Z-18Z MON...WARMING TO -25C TO -30C BY 00Z
TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MON OF AROUND 0F E TO AROUND
-10F WEST WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -40F /COLDEST OVER THE W HALF
IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON/.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING A LITTLE MORE WLY MON NIGHT WHILE THE COLD 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -25C...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE SPARSE OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND CENTRAL U.P. MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS AROUND
-25F OVER THE WELL INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WILL BE AOB 10KTS.
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BELOW ZERO WITH WINDS TO 15-25KTS. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO -30F TO -45F DURING THIS TIME. LES WILL CONTINUE
MON NIGHT...BUT FOR MORE WNW FAVORED SNOW BELTS. WITH WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BARELY SHIFT MORE WLY ON TUE AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO -20C TO -25C. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUE LES IN WNW WIND
SNOWBELTS. WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE SHOULD GUST TO
30-35KTS...CONTINUING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
AFTER TUE...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE WED INTO
THU...WITH DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM STILL BEING SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
WILL FOCUS ATTENTION TO FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE LONG TERM GIVEN
IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR
FORECASTS DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SN TO THE AREA TODAY. DUE TO
ARCTIC AIR...SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SMALL AND THUS EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING
VIS. AS A RESULT...IFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TODAY...THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR ARE ALSO LIKELY.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS AFTN AND INCREASE TONIGHT.
COMBINATION OF -SHSN/BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD AND ESPECIALLY KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. IFR SHOULD
CONTINUE AT KSAW...BUT CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO LIFR IF SNOW IS
HEAVIER OR WIND STRONGER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NEWD THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AS IT DEEPENS THIS EVENING. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SINK TO THE SE CONUS BY
WED. EXPECT NW GALES TO 35 TO 40 KTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE
OPEN WATER REMAINS/ FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE UNDER THE SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW IN QUEBEC. THE GALES
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL SUBSIDE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/FLATTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO JAMES BAY ON THU...DRAGGING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
MAY DEVELOP ON WED NIGHT AND THU UNDER THE SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ001.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-264>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
656 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY. AROUND THE VORTEX...ONE SHORTWAVE IS
SWINGING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND MUCH STRONGER
WAVE IS DROPPING THRU SRN MANITOBA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. FIRST WAVE IS
SPREADING AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WI/NRN IL/NRN IN. SNOW THEN
EXTENDS BACK TO THE NW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE. FORCING AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING -SN SPREADING INTO THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE REALLY CHANGED THE
ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS WILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR
AS ICE COVER IN THE MODELS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT
STATE OF ICE. THUS...MODELS WILL BE INCORRECTLY HANDLING
WINDS/CONVERGENCE/LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THE ICE COVER THAT WAS ROUGHLY
BTWN MANITOU ISLAND AND SHOT POINT WEST TO KEWEENAW BAY IS CLEARLY
BROKEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECENT HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES AS WAS EVIDENT
FROM THE SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS THAT STREAMED INTO MARQUETTE/WRN
ALGER COUNTIES YESTEDAY. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS PLENTY OF
OPEN WATER. A BIG PORTION OF THE ICE THAT WAS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
APPEARS TO BE OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR NOW.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL FCST THINKING SINCE YESTERDAY.
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE WRN LAKES. THERE`S NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AS MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO
1G/KG. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCSTS...EXPECT A
GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL TODAY. SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL PROBABLY MAKE
FOR LOWER VIS THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE
850MB WINDS BACK ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AT LOWER LEVELS...WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE AS MESOLOW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ENHANCMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT N TO
NW AND STRENGTHEN WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE OPEN WATER...SNOW MAY BE HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE W. EVEN SO...WITH DGZ ELIMINATED BY COLD AIR...LOW
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
MORE CRITICAL PART OF THE FCST IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. DIMINISHING GRADIENT WIND FIELD AND STRENGTHENING LAND
BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY LEADING TO MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SE LAKE
SUPERIOR PER SFC/MARINE OBS. WITH STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY
SHORTWAVE...MESOLOW SHOULD REALLY SPIN UP TODAY AS IT DRIFTS N OR
NW. ALL HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS...BUT TREND
HAS BEEN FOR A MORE EWD TRACK AS THE LOW HEADS BACK S WITH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE LATE AFTN/EVENING. CONSENSUS IS GENERALLY FOR LANDFALL NEAR
GRAND MARAIS. A BAND OF HVY LES IS EXPECTED ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
LOW...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY INDICATING THIS BAND AFFECTING
THE AREA BTWN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL ICE
COVER TOO EXTENSIVE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW...WOULD EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT LES TO IMPACT AREAS FARTHER W IN ALGER COUNTY EVEN IF
LOW IN FACT DOES MOVE ONSHORE NEAR GRAND MARAIS. HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A CORE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS (950MB WINDS OF 40-50KT) ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LOW AIMED
TOWARD THE MUNISING AREA. COMBINED WITH MESOSCALE PRES RISE/FALL
COUPLET...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BTWN DEERTON AND MUNISING. HAVE THUS
CONVERTED BLIZZARD WATCH TO WARNING FOR ALGER COUNTY...AND ISSUED
LES ADVY FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WHERE WINDS FARTHER INLAND WON`T BE
NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT. WRN EDGE OF STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL CLIP
KEWEENAW COUNTY...SO ALSO ISSUED LES ADVY THERE TONIGHT/MON MORNING
FOR CONSIDERABLE BLSN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE 2-3
INCHES. DURING THE DAY...WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT EXPANDING
ADVY OVER WRN UPPER MI AS SUFFICIENT OPEN WATER EXISTS TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD -SHSN WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VIS WHEN COMBINED WITH
OCNL BLSN.
ELSEWHERE...CONVERTED WIND CHILL WATCH TO WARNING LATE TONIGHT AS
WIND CHILLS DROP TO NEAR OR BLO -35F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE FIRST 2 DAYS /THROUGH
TUESDAY/.
FOR MON...AT 12Z THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER FAR
SERN ONTARIO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE
SFC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SHARP AS THE CLIPPER LOW DEPARTS
THE REGION AND A 1040MB HIGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES...AND
HIGH RES MODEL INDICATE A MESO LOW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON
MORNING. ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESO LOW WILL BE VERY
STRONG WINDS AND A STRONG LES BAND THAT LOOKS TO BE OVER ALGER
COUNTY. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW 925MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS W OF THE MESO
LOW...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM MON
NIGHT /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION/ INTO MON MORNING. BY 18Z MON...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE
MESO LOW SHIFTING TO THE E...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
AND NW WINDS THAT WERE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO BECOME MORE WLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL SHIFT LES WHILE WEAKENING IT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING OUT. WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS FROM THE WINDS
AND SNOW MORE FOCUSED DURING SUN NIGHT /SHORT TERM FORECAST/...WILL
TALK ABOUT THE COLD TEMPS FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE -30C TO -35C FROM 12Z-18Z MON...WARMING TO -25C TO -30C BY 00Z
TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MON OF AROUND 0F E TO AROUND
-10F WEST WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -40F /COLDEST OVER THE W HALF
IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON/.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING A LITTLE MORE WLY MON NIGHT WHILE THE COLD 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -25C...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE SPARSE OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND CENTRAL U.P. MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS AROUND
-25F OVER THE WELL INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WILL BE AOB 10KTS.
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BELOW ZERO WITH WINDS TO 15-25KTS. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO -30F TO -45F DURING THIS TIME. LES WILL CONTINUE
MON NIGHT...BUT FOR MORE WNW FAVORED SNOW BELTS. WITH WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BARELY SHIFT MORE WLY ON TUE AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO -20C TO -25C. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUE LES IN WNW WIND
SNOWBELTS. WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE SHOULD GUST TO
30-35KTS...CONTINUING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
AFTER TUE...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE WED INTO
THU...WITH DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM STILL BEING SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
WILL FOCUS ATTENTION TO FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE LONG TERM GIVEN
IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR
FORECASTS DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH WINDS BACKING SOUTHWEST...THE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY
LATE TONIGHT AT CMX/SAW. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT....EXPECT THE
FINE FLAKES TO AGAIN BE GOOD AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND HAVE
LOWERED VALUES TO IFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGHT SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NEWD THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AS IT DEEPENS THIS EVENING. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SINK TO THE SE CONUS BY
WED. EXPECT NW GALES TO 35 TO 40 KTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE
OPEN WATER REMAINS/ FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE UNDER THE SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW IN QUEBEC. THE GALES
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL SUBSIDE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/FLATTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO JAMES BAY ON THU...DRAGGING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
MAY DEVELOP ON WED NIGHT AND THU UNDER THE SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ001.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-264>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ249>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
553 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
Big warm-up on tap for today with well-above average temps. Winds
have already swung around to southerly overnight and temps have
been slowly creeping upward. The warm front now extending from the
surface low in north central Iowa into western MO will surge
eastward across the CWA this morning as the surface low moves into
the Great Lakes, with winds veering to southwest and then westerly
and strong warm advection across the area. I have boosted temps
from the previous forecast and am close to the last few hourly
runs of the RAP which appear to have a good handle on the current
temperatures here and upstream. Highs in most locations should get
into the 50s. Enjoy the warmth...it ends tonight!
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
A powerful Arctic cold front will drive like a freight train through
the CWA tonight. A strong pressure gradient and large pressure
rises behind the front all point to very strong and gusty NW winds
with the fropa. Have issued a wind advisory for all but southeast
Missouri anticipating a 3-4 period with sustained winds of 25-35
mph and gusts of 45+. In addition to intense cold advection and
plummeting temperatures, it appears that strong low level
frontogenetic forcing and weak large scale ascent will produce a
narrow band of snow immediately in the cold air. The band will be
moving so quickly and the wind blowing so hard that any
accumulations will be very light. Dangerous wind chills of 15 to
20 below zero are still on target late tonight and into Tuesday
morning across northeast MO into central IL due to various
combinations of the wind and bitterly cold ambient air
temperatures. The previously issued wind chill advisory looks
right on target for the anticipated high threat area. The bitterly
cold Arctic air mass will dominate the area into Tuesday, and will
be the coldest since the early January Arctic Outbreak.
During the later half of the week ahead and into next weekend the
upper air pattern finally breaks down. The longwave trof which has
dominated eastern NOAM for weeks will weaken and shift northeastward
as amplfication occurs from the eastern Pacific into the western
U.S. and the negative phase of the PNA pattern becomes established.
There are some important differences in the deterministic model
solutions during this time frame with regards to shortwave
features with the developing wsw flow aloft, the location of a
baroclinic zone and the depth/magnitude of cold air. This leads
to greater uncertainty than normal in the details, however all
guidance points to increasing precipitation chances next weekend
and potential for wintery precipitation.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 552 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
As surface low weakens and tracks to the east into the great lakes
region, south to southwest winds to pickup near 15kts with gusts
to near 25kts at times with just some mid and high clouds. Still
experiencing LLWS mainly over KCOU and metro area tafs, so kept
mention for a few more hours this morning as winds continue to mix
down to the surface. Then gradient weakens by this afternoon ahead
of strong arctic front so winds to diminish. Then the cold front
to move into KUIN by 02z, KCOU by 03z and metro area by 04z. Winds
quickly veer to the northwest to north behind the boundary and
pickup with sustained winds near 30kts and gusts near 40kts. Low
end vfr cigs to move in with some light snow/snow showers. By late
in the forecast period, will see winds diminish just a bit but
continue to see gusts near 30kts.
Specifics for KSTL:
As surface low weakens and tracks to the east into the great lakes
region, south to southwest winds to pickup near 15kts with gusts
to near 25kts at times with just some mid and high clouds. Still
experiencing LLWS over metro area, so kept mention through 15z this
morning as winds continue to mix down to the surface. Then
gradient weakens by 22z this afternoon ahead of strong arctic
front so winds to diminish. Then the cold front to move into metro
area by 04z Monday. Winds quickly veer to the northwest to north behind
the boundary and pickup with sustained winds near 30kts and gusts
near 40kts. Low end vfr cigs to move in with some flurries/snow
showers. By 11z Monday, will see winds diminish just a bit but
continue to see gusts near 30kts.
Byrd
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 56 6 12 0 / 5 30 0 0
Quincy 49 -1 5 -7 / 10 40 0 0
Columbia 56 6 13 -2 / 0 30 0 0
Jefferson City 58 8 14 -1 / 0 30 0 0
Salem 51 6 10 -2 / 5 30 5 0
Farmington 58 10 15 -1 / 0 30 5 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Warren MO.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM Monday to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-
Shelby MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM Monday to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
520 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
TURNING WINDY AND SHARPLY COLD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HUDSON BAY AND AND SWINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS...ALLOWING
ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DRASTIC END TO OUR WARMER
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES
ABOARD INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS.
CURRENTLY A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN STEADY/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM
TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MILD IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS SOME MID LEVEL
WARM AIR HAS MIXED TO THE SFC THE TEMP AT ORD JUMPED TO 53 DEGREES
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH FOR THIS AREA TODAY.
UPSTREAM...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS ADVANCING SOUTH THRU CANADA
TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD WEATHER WITH STEADY/GUSTY
WINDS WITH WINDS TRENDING UP FURTHER BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INCREASES/DEEPENS.
THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING WILL SEE THE BIGGER WEATHER
CHANGES AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 21Z
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ARCTIC FRONT REACHES THE NEB/KS STATELINE
BY 00Z AND CLEARS OUR CWA BY 03Z. TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY FALL IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS N/S THIS AFTN/EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG VERY
IMPRESSIVE THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER
OF 12MB. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP MIXING AS HIGH AS H8
WILL LEAD TO INTENSE WINDS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/WIND GUSTS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES. STILL HAVE
CONCERNS FOR REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER PER RAP SOUNDINGS AVERAGE
NEAR 50KTS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY...AND
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNING IF WINDS TREND UP
MUCH FURTHER. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN FRONTOGENESIS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT WITH LLVL MOISTURE LACKING.
TONIGHT...A 1040MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FM THE DAKOTAS ONTO
THE PLAINS...AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD MORNING
AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPS IN THE ARCTIC AIR WITH THE STEADY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
FRIGID WIND CHILLS AT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR
LOCATIONS IN NEBRASKA ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE
COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION.
IF TEMPS TREND LOWER OR WINDS REMAIN STRONGER FARTHER SOUTH...THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WIND CHILLS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND CHILL
READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 20 BELOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 15 BELOW IN THE FAR NORTH
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THE FAR NORTH AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA OFF AND ON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS TIME THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
BOTH HAVE A LITTLE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARRIVING
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESSIVE
OF 40KTS ARE EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOWARD MONDAY MORNING
AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. FOR THE MOST PART CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT
VFR LEVELS BUT DID INCLUDE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS. OTHERWISE
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY WITH FROPA BUT
NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO INSERT IN TAF.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ072>077-082>087.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
507 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
...VERY WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN BITTER COLD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST SETTING UP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF ARCTIC FRONTS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LEFT US WITHIN A VERY MILD REGIME WITH
TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. WHILE TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT`S GOING TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE...MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA 18-21Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
21-00Z. HAVE NO DOUBT WE`LL MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...THE
BIG QUESTION IS IF WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA...AS THEY HAVE WITH SEVERAL PREVIOUS FRONTS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT WE`LL
MIX VERY DEEP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR UP TO 750/725 MB.
WINDS AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE QUITE STRONG AT 60 TO 70 KNOTS. NAM
AND RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL BOTH
SUGGESTING THAT SURFACE WINDS COULD GUST TO 50 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. OTHER MODEL SUITES AREN`T QUITE AS STRONG.
COMPOUNDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE WINDS...THERE COULD BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...INITIALLY RAIN AND THEN SNOW...WHICH WILL
HELP WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. NAM DOESN`T DEVELOP
MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT NEARLY ALL OTHER MODEL SUITES DO. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT A CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
SURGE OF COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY SHOWN BY 03Z HOPWRF RUNS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY VISIBILITY DROPS ONCE THE PRECIP CHANGES
TO SNOW AS WELL...AND WHETHER THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK HALF INCH OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
HAVE OPTED TO CONVERT THE HIGH WIND WATCH INTO A HIGH WIND
WARNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I80. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...THUS WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES...
WHERE MOMENTUM MIXING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG SINCE THE SUN WILL
HAVE SET BY THEN. HIGH WIND WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE CONVERTED
INTO A WIND ADVISORY AS SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL SUBSIDES THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT WOULD BEST BE MANAGED IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH
UPDATES BASED ON REAL TIME REPORTS.
SECONDARY IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY IS THE ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.
READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...SIMILAR TO THE ARCTIC SURGE OF LAST WEEK. WHEN COUPLED
WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 29 BELOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUS WILL HAVE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COLD DAY MONDAY...AND SUB ZERO
READINGS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MONDAY
MORNING...BUT BECAUSE IT`S COLDER...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 28 BELOW OVER SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
A COLD DAY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH THE EXTENDED INVOLVE ANOTHER FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DECENT POTENTIAL TO WARM BACK INTO THE 30S...THEN COLDER
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AND STILL SOME SMALL POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF
MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE THAT.
BIGGER CONCERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS
PAINTING A FAIRLY ROBUST WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES GIVING US
A PRETTY CHANCE OF SNOW. THE ECMWF ALSO HAVE A WAVE...BUT IS A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER AND WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...
WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE
THIS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SNOW CHANCES MAY BE INCREASING LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINSHOWERS/SNOWSHOWERS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AND HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
CLOUDS...GENERALLY FL040 TO FL100. THIS MORNING...THE WINDS ALOFT
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE SURGE OF COLD AIR THIS
AFTERNOON....THUS WINDS WILL BE MORE IN THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 35KT WITH GUSTS 40-50KT
AFTER 17-18Z AT KOFK AND REACHING KOMA AND KLNK 20-22Z.
RAINSHOWERS/SNOWSHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR...THUS WILL MENTION IN THE TAFS BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM AT KOFK
AND 2PM-5PM AT KOMA/KLNK. VSBYS MAY DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
FALLING SNOW AND WIND. DUE TO SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS CAN
BE REFINED AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. ALSO THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY...SO WILL NEED TO BE ALERT TO THIS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ078-088>090-092.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ068-091-093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ030-
042>045-050>053-065>068.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ090-091.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ069-079-
080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
418 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT
WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE
/DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE
SO WITH A WARNING.
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES
UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY
HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A
RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO
SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE
CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA
ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED
THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH
THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN
THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY
BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER
GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND
THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG
CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30
TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING
AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING
AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY
MORNING.
MTF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE
FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER
SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER
PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET
LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT
SNOW FOR EVERYONE.
FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE
PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR
REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND
ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE
THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY.
WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND
MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF
TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KT...SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST BY EARLY
EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME 35-40 KT GUSTS. WINDS BEGIN TO
VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH MIDNIGHT AND AFTER.
* SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EARLY EVENING BEHIND COLD
FRONT...LASTING 2-3 HOURS. SOME PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WITH VIS BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1SM AND
CIGS OR VV BRIEFLY BELOW 1000 FT.
* GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
WHICH MAY PRODUCE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND CONTAMINATION OF
PLOWED SURFACES OVERNIGHT.
* SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KTS.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VERY HAZARDOUS AVIATION CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACRTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
BE THE FOCUS...WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST AND BEGAN TO GUSTS AT TIMES TO ARND 20-25KT. CIGS HAVE BEGUN
TO LOWER AS WELL...NEARING MVFR CONDS. WITH THE POWDERY NATURE OF
THE SNOWFALL FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE GUSTS WILL EASILY
PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND LOWER VSBYS BRIEFLY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
CONDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ONCE THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ARRIVES ARND
1-2Z...AND WILL BRING VSBYS DOWN FURTHER WITH A BURST OF LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. POSSIBLY SEE VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE
WITHIN THIS BURST. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RAMP UP TO GUSTS NEARING
36KT AT THE ONSET. THEN GUSTS WILL RISE EVEN HIGHER NEARING 40KT
BY 3Z. CURRENTLY HAVE INDICATED VSBYS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE AT
3Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY GUSTY
WINDS PERSISTING AND LIKELY CAUSING CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
9Z...WITH CIGS HOVERING ARND HIGH END MVFR AND LOW END VFR THRU
DAYBREAK. THEN A STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR SHOULD BRING PARTIAL
CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS...HOWEVER THIS MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND A
CLOUD DECK APPEARS TO BE POISED TO REDEVELOP LATE MON MORNING.
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT NOT AS
STRONG AT 20-26KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWER TIMING/IMPACTS...EXCEPT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PROLONGED LIFR VSBYS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT-BKN STRATOCU DECK MID-RANGE MVFR OR
HIGHER LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
151 PM CST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...RELATIVELY LIGHTER SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...A QUICKLY APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY HAS SINCE CHANGED THESE CONDITIONS...AND
REPLACED THEM WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE.
20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...BUT WITH THIS QUICKLY
CHANGING AS SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH GALES QUICKLY
BEING OBSERVED OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE AND NEARSHORE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST GALES CAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LINGERING INTO THE
REST OF THE DAY MONDAY. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING GALES
COULD LINGER SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN THE CURRENT GALE WARNING THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WITH REGARDS TO THE
POSSIBILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINE END TIME
AND JUST MENTION GALE FORCE GUSTS. A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BUT ALSO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-
ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ032 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023...3 AM
MONDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM
MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...3 AM MONDAY
TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019...3 AM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-
LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565 UNTIL 9
AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT
WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE
/DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE
SO WITH A WARNING.
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES
UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY
HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A
RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO
SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE
CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA
ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED
THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH
THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN
THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY
BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER
GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND
THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG
CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30
TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING
AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING
AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY
MORNING.
MTF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE
FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER
SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER
PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET
LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT
SNOW FOR EVERYONE.
FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE
PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR
REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND
ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE
THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY.
WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND
MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF
TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WEST WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 20-26KT AT ONSET.
* NW WINDS BECOME VERY GUSTY QUICKLY ARND 1Z THRU 9Z...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 3-9Z NEARING 40KT AND MAY BE HIGHER.
* BURST OF SNOW WITH SNOW ARRIVAL...THEN ENDS ARND 3Z WITH
CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW.
* POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS WITH BURST OF SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW THIS
EVENING THRU OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN THEN LIKELY PERSIST THRU DAYBREAK
MON.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VERY HAZARDOUS AVIATION CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACRTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
BE THE FOCUS...WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST AND BEGAN TO GUSTS AT TIMES TO ARND 20-25KT. CIGS HAVE BEGUN
TO LOWER AS WELL...NEARING MVFR CONDS. WITH THE POWDERY NATURE OF
THE SNOWFALL FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE GUSTS WILL EASILY
PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND LOWER VSBYS BRIEFLY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
CONDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ONCE THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ARRIVES ARND
1-2Z...AND WILL BRING VSBYS DOWN FURTHER WITH A BURST OF LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. POSSIBLY SEE VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE
WITHIN THIS BURST. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RAMP UP TO GUSTS NEARING
36KT AT THE ONSET. THEN GUSTS WILL RISE EVEN HIGHER NEARING 40KT
BY 3Z. CURRENTLY HAVE INDICATED VSBYS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE AT
3Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY GUSTY
WINDS PERSISTING AND LIKELY CAUSING CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
9Z...WITH CIGS HOVERING ARND HIGH END MVFR AND LOW END VFR THRU
DAYBREAK. THEN A STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR SHOULD BRING PARTIAL
CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS...HOWEVER THIS MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND A
CLOUD DECK APPEARS TO BE POISED TO REDEVELOP LATE MON MORNING.
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT NOT AS
STRONG AT 20-26KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVAL...AND SNOW
ARRIVAL/ENDING.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING SNOW IMPACT ON VSBYS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
151 PM CST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...RELATIVELY LIGHTER SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...A QUICKLY APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY HAS SINCE CHANGED THESE CONDITIONS...AND
REPLACED THEM WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE.
20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...BUT WITH THIS QUICKLY
CHANGING AS SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH GALES QUICKLY
BEING OBSERVED OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE AND NEARSHORE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST GALES CAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LINGERING INTO THE
REST OF THE DAY MONDAY. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING GALES
COULD LINGER SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN THE CURRENT GALE WARNING THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WITH REGARDS TO THE
POSSIBILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINE END TIME
AND JUST MENTION GALE FORCE GUSTS. A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BUT ALSO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023...3 AM
MONDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM
MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...3 AM MONDAY
TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019...3 AM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM
MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6
PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...9 PM
SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...6 PM
SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
LMZ744-LMZ745...6 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1141 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1105 AM CST
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOWING
SNOW...WHICH WE HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF IN OPEN AREAS
AND JUST EXPERIENCED A SEVERAL MINUTE PERIOD OF 1/4SM IN BLOWING
SNOW HERE AT THE WFO WITH A GUST TO 37 MPH. IN ADDITION...PNT
RECENTLY GUSTED TO 45 MPH. FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT HAVE
INCREASED GUST STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...AND HAVE BOOSTED
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE THESE
FURTHER RAISE ONGOING CONCERNS ABOUT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FOR THIS
EVENING IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...CONTINUE TO
HIT HARD IN THE ONGOING HEADLINE.
RAPID UPPER TO MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA IS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE WAVE ALREADY OVER CENTRAL OH THAT
PRODUCED THE EARLIER TWO TO THREE AND A HALF INCHES OF SNOW. LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOW QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND
EVOLVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. THE WINDS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS
WARM FRONT WAS THE ZONE OF RAPID PRESSURE CHANGE THAT BROUGHT THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER GUSTS. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THIS
CLIPPER WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES
AND EVEN DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S...SOME SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR
IN THESE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLY MAKE EXISTING
SNOW COVER SOMEWHAT LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE CALLS AND INQUIRIES FOR VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS.
THE WORSE CONDITIONS REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE WE WOULD
LEAN TO AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR TONIGHT WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WORSE FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD.
AS FOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT...THE PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS
PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MASSIVE
LONG WAVE TROUGH. A STAGGERING 250M HEIGHT FALLS WERE OBSERVED AT
500MB THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THIS...WHICH IS
EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FOR A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING NEARLY
DUE SOUTH. THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL EVOLVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AND CORRELATE TO NARROW BUT STRONG FORCING IMMEDIATELY ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVES POTENTIAL VORTICITY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OCCURRING...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT AND HOURLY TIMING. THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS A GOOD SETUP
FOR SNOW SHOWERS...OR EVEN A RIBBON OF SNOW WITH THIS. CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE STRONG SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS OF THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /NEGATIVE EPV/ DIRECTLY
ABOVE THAT. SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS WITH LIKELY MENTIONED MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-88. HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT HIGH REFLECTIVITY WITHIN
THIS FORCING AND IT IS ATOP THE INTENSE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO THE COMBO OF BRIEFLY MODEST
SNOW AND HIGH WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR 1-2 HRS IN SOME
PLACES...AGAIN ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THATS WHERE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL VERY LIKELY OCCUR...AT LEAST
BRIEFLY. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BOOSTED TO 45 MPH FOR A 1-2 HR
PERIOD DURING THIS TIME AND ALREADY SEEING THESE TYPE OF
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM IN IA.
CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIVING CONDITIONS
BECOMING VERY POOR IN OUTLYING LOCATIONS AND LIKELY REMAINING SO
THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY IF NOT WELL INTO MONDAY.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
325 AM CST
SEVERAL WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCLUDING
ONGOING SNOW THIS MORNING...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO BLOWING
SNOW AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS TONIGHT WHICH
WILL STAY IN THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER NORTHERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT. STRONG
ASCENT AND A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE WILL PROMOTE DRIER THAN AVERAGE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AND
EXPECT A WINDOW OF NEARLY INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES. GOING FORECAST
WAS MOSTLY ON TRACK THOUGH MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE BAND OF 3-5
INCHES WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE
ROCKFORD AREA INTO THE SOUTH SUBURBS OF CHICAGO. ELSEWHERE...2-4
INCHES STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE...EXCEPT SOUTH OF A PERU TO FOWLER
LINE WHERE AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF.
A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE FIRST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO PUSH
EAST OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW LATER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURE MAY PUSH THE FREEZING MARK THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-80...AND AT THE SAME TIME WINDS WILL BECOME
VERY BREEZY. UPSTREAM OBS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
SHOW SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH AND EXPECT THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY LATE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE
WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHEARED MID LEVEL VORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
PROVIDING BROAD SCALE ASCENT WHILE F-GEN BAND IS SET TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL FORCING.
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO AROUND H8 WITH A
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO AROUND H7. THE BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE IS WELL CO-LOCATED IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT FALLS WITHIN COLDER AIR FARTHER NORTH WHICH
WILL LEAD TO INEFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION. IN ADDITION...STRONG
SHEAR WITH WINDS QUICKLY PUSHING TOWARDS 80KTS AT H7 WOULD BE
DETRIMENTAL TO SNOW GROWTH. SHALLOW MOISTURE AND FORCING QUICKLY
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
WITHIN THE F-GEN BAND WHICH LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SETTING UP SOUTH
OF I-80.
MORE CONCERNING TONIGHT WILL BE THE SHARP UPTICK IN WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA...BUT THE CWA WILL STILL SEE IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES OF
10-12MB/6HR...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE 40-45KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WHICH SHOULD MIX EFFICIENTLY TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES. LOCAL 8KM WRF SHOWS A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF WIND GUSTS
PUSHING 40 MPH BEFORE EASING SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
GIVEN THE DRY SNOW FALLING THIS MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS EVENING...REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT THE IMPACTS
FROM BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES MAY PUSH ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ADD SOME
DENSITY TO THE SNOW...BUT EVEN IF THIS IS THE CASE SUSPECT IT MAY
BE SOMEWHAT NEGLIGIBLE GIVEN HOW COLD THE GROUND TEMPS ARE. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS THOUGH WILL ONLY
COMPOUND VISIBILITY ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW.
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AND REASON FOR NOT GOING WITH A BLIZZARD
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME WILL BE THE SHORT DURATION OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS. WHILE I FULLY EXPECT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...AM NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT 3 HOURS OF OF 35 MPH WINDS TO
MEET THE STRICT CRITERIA FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING. BUT TO BE
CLEAR...EVEN WITH WINDS BLOWING 30 TO 35 MPH OVER THE DRY
SNOW...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NEAR ZERO OR ZERO VISIBILITY
PARTICULARLY IN OPEN AND RURAL AREAS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY. IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS
BAD AS YOU HEAD INTO THE HEART OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA.
NEXT WEEK...
WELL ADVERTISED COLD SNAP STILL ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE THE DEEP TROUGH
OVERHEAD...DO NOT SEE ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MAIN STORY CONTINUES
TO BE THE COLD WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS AROUND 40 BELOW NORTH OF I-80 TUESDAY WITH
-30 TO -40 SOUTH OF I-80. A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
TIER OF COUNTIES. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN IS STILL PROGGED TO DAMPEN SOME...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST BY MID-DAY AND THEN GUSTING
TO ARND 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTN.
* BLOWING SNOW FROM AFTN ON.
* WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35KT THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO GUSTS
ARND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER IOWA WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THEN TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AND THEN TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20S BY AROUND MID DAY.
THIS COULD CAUSE VSBY ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN
AREAS...MOST LIKELY AT RFD/DPA. AN ARCTIC FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO
20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KT...HIGHEST OUT
TOWARD RFD. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE BITTERLY COLD AIR POURING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG
PRESSURE RISES. FURTHERMORE...THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS WITH HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS IMPACTS ON CIGS. EITHER
WAY...THE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND AT LEAST NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...WHICH WOULD BE COMPOUNDED BY FALLING SNOW. HAVE
INDICATED A TEMPO 1/2 SM VSBY AT RFD AND DPA THIS EVENING...WITH
LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AT ORD/MDW/GYY.
AS AN ADDITIONAL NOTE ON THE SNOW THIS EVENING...RECENT RUNS OF
ONE OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NEAR TERM MODELS BRINGS A MORE
INTENSE BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY 23-05Z...WHILE
MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.
BELIEVE THAT THE SCENARIO PORTRAYED BY THE ONE HIGHER RES MODEL IS
OF LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO FURTHER ASSESS TODAY...AS CIG/VSBY IMPACTS WOULD BE
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR ALL TERMINALS IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR.
WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
THREAT FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTIONS GOING.
HAVE KEPT MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT RFD/DPA...WHICH CONCEIVABLY
COULD BE AT LEAST PERIODIC IFR.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS ON VSBY.
* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
432 AM CST
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...MANY MARINE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THEN LIFT BACK NORTHEAST TO LAKE HURON BY
THIS EVENING. THIS PATH WILL ENABLE WINDS TO RAMP UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GALES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OPEN WATERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTH HALF THIS EVENING...WITH VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ENABLING GALES TO RAMP UP TO 45 KT.
ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY MID
EVENING...NORTHWEST GALES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE NORTH HALF OF
THE LAKE. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR AN EARLIER ONSET THAN EXPECTED
THERE. BITTERLY COLD AIR RUSHING OVER THE LAKE THIS EVENING WILL
ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A WARNING STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOR THE OPEN WATERS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ALOFT ON
MONDAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE 25 TO 30
KT RANGE. IF THERE IS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...THE GALE WARNING MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND MONDAY MORNING FOR AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE LAKE. AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL STALL NEAR HUDSON BAY...KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT
FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH. SHOULD THERE BE A PERIOD OF
SUB GALES ON MONDAY...THEY COULD THEN REDEVELOP FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH VERY COLD AIR STILL OVER THE LAKE...BUT THE
NEXT GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR GALES WILL BE SOUTHWEST GALES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ICE COVERAGE IS A BIG FACTOR...BUT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 6PM THIS EVENING
UNTIL 9AM MONDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY FOR NON ICE
COVERED AREAS THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023...3 AM
MONDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM
MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...3 AM MONDAY
TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019...3 AM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM
SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6
PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...9 PM
SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...6 PM
SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
LMZ744-LMZ745...6 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1106 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 945 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
Huge gradient in weather conditions this morning along forecast
area boundaries. KDVN enduring near blizzard conditions while KGBG
and C75 have temperatures in the middle to upper 30s melting
remaining snow cover. Similar contrast is occuring between KBMI
and KPNT. warm front is moving across eastern forecast area this
morning and have increased high temperatures througout the
forecast area. With temps already near or above freezing through
entire forecast area much of any remaining snow cover should be
reduced significantly. Areas such as KIJX in which there already
is no snow cover will likely approach 50 degrees this afternoon.
Enjoy it today as winter returns this evening.
Barker
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
Warm front has swept eastward through terminals this morning with
winds becoming more westerly. With warming temperatures, snow has
been melting and blowing snow should not be an issue today. Any
Cigs should remain VFR or possibly occasionally MVFR. There will
liley be occasional periods without Cigs particularly at KSPI this
afternoon.
A strong cold front will push through the terminals this evening
(02z-04z) with winds shifting to 300-360 degrees and increasing.
With the frontal passage, a short-lived burst of heavy snow is
possible given the strong frotogenetic forcing and will include a
tempo group to reflect that. Latest HRRR suggests any LIFR vsbys
should be less than an hour. A brief period of IFR Cigs will also
be possible immediately behind the front. Clearing should develop
after 06z with gradual decrease in winds after 12z.
Barker
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 307 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
Concern today is the morning light snow, and then the arctic front
this evening.
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night.
Surface data this evening shows the next clipper low pressure
center over northwest IA. Upper wave in moisture channel over
southeast MN diving to the southeast and moving the enhanced pcpn
ahead of it over northern IL. Soundings at ILX and DVN at 00Z
showed the air column very dry and so the saturation of airmass
has been slowed over region. With dry air, have decreased expected
snow amounts this morning over the northern cwa counties.
Expect low to move much as progged, moving over northern IL and
second upper wave noted in moisture channel will drive the arctic
airmass into the region Sunday evening. Models all indicate
significant low level jet from the northwest over eastern IA into
central IL and northern MO behind the front. Will therefore issue
wind advisory for transport of the strong winds to the surface
behind the front this evening and overnight. Will be a brief
period of light snow for a couple hours after the front, with the
significant lift behind the front. Amounts will be very light, so
for that reason will see blowing snow reducing visibilities, but
amount of snow expected to be light, impact will be short lived.
Will have to watch this.
Continuing the wind chill warning and advisories as temperatures
still falling in arctic air and with strong winds. Monday morning
and Tuesday morning will still have the hazardous wind chills.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.
pattern finally shifts during the exceeded period, becoming more
zonal in nature aloft. With that, another front moves through on
Thursday with light snow, plus an overrunning low on Friday night
to also bring some light snow.
Goetsch
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST Tuesday
FOR ILZ040-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.
WIND CHILL WARNING from Midnight tonight to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-055-057.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
353 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
Current surface analysis at 20Z shows a prefrontal trough located
across southern NE, while the cold front was not far behind in
central NE. The pressure gradient behind the front is rather
impressive as well as a 20 degree drop in temperature. Given the
current southward speed of the front as well as agreement between
the latest RAP and HRRR it should enter the forecast area around
23Z. By 01Z the front should stretch along a line from Abilene to
Leavenworth, and finally exiting the forecast area around 03Z.
Directly behind this front will be a rapid increase in winds gusting
40 to 50 mph across the entire area. There is the possibility across
the eastern half of the forecast area that gusts reach 50 to 55 mph
directly behind the front. Latest forecast soundings are also
suggesting an isolated rain or snow shower along the front. The
light precip combined with the strong winds could cause brief
periods of low visibilities...no accumulation is expected. Winds
will gradually decrease through the overnight hours still
sustained around 15 to 20 mph at sunrise. Overnight lows reach the
single digits causing wind chills to drop to 15 below zero. Given
the latest forecast trends have will make no changes to the wind and
wind chill advisories. Tomorrow high pressure continues to build
into the region and highs only reach the mid to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
For much of Monday night into Tuesday morning, some of the coldest
air of the season will be holding strong over the area while surface
high pressure dominates the region...centered on the northeast
corner of Kansas. Expect mostly clear skies through the overnight
hours as well, which along with nearly calm winds indicates a very
cold night is in store. It is climatologically very difficult to
fall below zero without snow cover, but it certainly seems possible
on Tuesday morning, especially in northeast KS. Will then have the
base of an upper trough rotate through the area during the day on
Tuesday with some indication of enough moisture and ascent to
support light snow...mainly over central KS. Will have to see how it
plays out as it doesn`t look like much of a precip maker at this
point. Even without precip, could see cloud cover building in after
the very cold morning which may keep daytime temps lower despite
warm advection.
Beyond Tuesday, the upper level flow pattern attempts a gradual
change away from the sharp northerly flow currently in place. A
series of weak disturbances will move through the more zonal flow
pattern, but they are so weak, fast moving, and somewhat lacking of
deep moisture that any precip chances appear very small locally with
each disturbance passing. One such small chance appears to be
maximized on Friday, while another is in store for Sunday. The late
weekend/early next week storm system has better access to deep
moisture with southwesterly upper flow and some Gulf of Mexico
influence but the main question is if the storm track will come
overhead or hold south of the area. Temperatures through the long
term appear fairly stable, and near normal or a bit colder than
normal. Also of note, the short wave troughs in the long term do not
look nearly as windy as the clipper systems of the past two weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
Winds will quickly increase as a front pushes southward through
the taf sites. Have the front coming in slightly earlier and have
increased the winds after frontal passage. Latest guidance is
supporting wind gusts approaching 50 mph for a brief period behind
the front. There is also a slight chance for flurries or sprinkles
along and just behind the front, which could temporarily reduce
visibilities and bring in MVFR ceilings. Will continue to monitor
the latest data for a possible TEMPO period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Monday FOR
KSZ021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY until 2 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ008>012-020.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 4 AM to 11 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ010>012.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
516 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...WESTERLY GRADIENT HAS DIMINISHED ON SCHEDULE. WITH VERY
LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A QUICK DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THEY WILL THEN STEADY OFF WITH THE ADVANCE OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...AND FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP STILL WELL WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LATEST HRRR RUN BRING
STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN NEW YORK BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THEREAFTER LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISC...SFC RIDGE AXIS IS APPROACHING THE AREA QUICKLY FROM
THE W ATTM. WILL SEE GUSTY WLY WINDS DROP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS A RESULT. HIGH CLOUD SPILLING OVER THE UPR RIDGE AXIS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE CWFA BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z. IT
SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR
CIGS TO LOWER AND ANY PCPN TO BEGIN. BROAD WAA AHEAD OF GREAT
LAKES LOW PRES WILL SUPPORT SCT SHSN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES WHERE TOPOGRAPHY WILL ASSIST IN LIFT. IN
ADDITION...INITIALLY A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SHSN REACHING INTO PARTS OF THE MIDCOAST AS WINDS BECOME
MORE SWLY. COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUM IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FARTHER S.
LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY/S HIGHS.
AFTER AN INITIAL DROP NEAR SUNSET...WAA SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP
READINGS MOSTLY STEADY OR RAISE TEMPS THRU THE NIGHT TO WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF CURRENT READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHSN LINGER IN WAA MON MORNING...WHILE COLD FNT APPROACHES
FROM THE W. FNT SHOULD ENTER WRN CWFA NEAR NOON ACROSS WRN
ZONES...AND EXIT THE ERN ZONES BY 00Z. ALONG FNT GUIDANCE
INDICATES ENOUGH FORCING FOR A CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHSN. SFC WAA
AHEAD OF FROPA WILL BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
COAST...WHERE SHSN MAY MIX WITH RA AT TIMES. LLVL RH PROFILES AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF MORE INTENSE
SQUALLS WITHIN THE LINE OF SHSN. QUICKLY FALLING TEMPS AFTER THE
FROPA WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME ICY SPOTS WHERE SNFL HAS MELTED.
LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN COULD TACK ON ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES IN
THE MTNS...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PAIR OF SURFACE CYCLONES REMAIN STUCK IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO
OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD AS RIDGING
BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME
LESS AMPLIFIED FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SE STATES. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIME FRAME.
IN THE INTERIM THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER FOR
NEW ENGLAND AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVELY
COLD AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES
TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE AS THE WEEK GOES ON. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOK ESPECIALLY COLD WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW CLEARING
CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A VERY DRY AIRMASS AS WELL WITH ANY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED. MAY NEED WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT WASHINGTON TO LAKE MOXIE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS AS A FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. MODELS SEEM TO
BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY WASHING THIS OUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND PARENT SURFACE LOW FILL. QPF/SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE
AIRMASS REMAINING ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. OTHER
DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW ALOFT MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE NOT BEING
RESOLVED WELL BY THE LONG TERM MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. BROAD WAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHSN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNFL.
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ON MON...UNTIL COLD
FNT SWEEPS THRU WITH A BAND OF SHSN ALONG IT. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NH AND WRN ME.
WLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND COLD FNT YET AGAIN LATE MON
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR WITH WSW WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. POSSIBLE
LINGERING MVFR IN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS SFC RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WINDS WILL
RELAX FOR A TIME. GALES ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA
CONDITIONS BEFORE 00Z...BUT SCA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. SCA IN THE BAYS WILL BE ABLE TO COME DOWN BY 00Z AS
WELL. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WAA
EASES THE THREAT. BEHIND COLD FNT LATE MON NIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE.
LONG TERM...SOMEWHAT GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1224 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
THUS FAR FROM THE CLIPPER RUNNING A TOUCH ABOVE THE FORECAST.
THUS...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR TWO.
DID ADJUST THE GROUPINGS ON THE WIND CHILL WARNINGS TO ADD SOME
MENTIONS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
WANTED TO INCREASE THE AWARENESS OF THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR
THE NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS AS ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY. AROUND THE VORTEX...ONE SHORTWAVE IS
SWINGING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND MUCH STRONGER
WAVE IS DROPPING THRU SRN MANITOBA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. FIRST WAVE IS
SPREADING AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WI/NRN IL/NRN IN. SNOW THEN
EXTENDS BACK TO THE NW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE. FORCING AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING -SN SPREADING INTO THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE REALLY CHANGED THE
ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS WILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR
AS ICE COVER IN THE MODELS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT
STATE OF ICE. THUS...MODELS WILL BE INCORRECTLY HANDLING
WINDS/CONVERGENCE/LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THE ICE COVER THAT WAS ROUGHLY
BTWN MANITOU ISLAND AND SHOT POINT WEST TO KEWEENAW BAY IS CLEARLY
BROKEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECENT HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES AS WAS EVIDENT
FROM THE SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS THAT STREAMED INTO MARQUETTE/WRN
ALGER COUNTIES YESTEDAY. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS PLENTY OF
OPEN WATER. A BIG PORTION OF THE ICE THAT WAS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
APPEARS TO BE OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR NOW.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL FCST THINKING SINCE YESTERDAY.
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE WRN LAKES. THERE`S NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AS MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO
1G/KG. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCSTS...EXPECT A
GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL TODAY. SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL PROBABLY MAKE
FOR LOWER VIS THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE
850MB WINDS BACK ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AT LOWER LEVELS...WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE AS MESOLOW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ENHANCMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT N TO
NW AND STRENGTHEN WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE OPEN WATER...SNOW MAY BE HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE W. EVEN SO...WITH DGZ ELIMINATED BY COLD AIR...LOW
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
MORE CRITICAL PART OF THE FCST IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. DIMINISHING GRADIENT WIND FIELD AND STRENGTHENING LAND
BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY LEADING TO MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SE LAKE
SUPERIOR PER SFC/MARINE OBS. WITH STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY
SHORTWAVE...MESOLOW SHOULD REALLY SPIN UP TODAY AS IT DRIFTS N OR
NW. ALL HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS...BUT TREND
HAS BEEN FOR A MORE EWD TRACK AS THE LOW HEADS BACK S WITH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE LATE AFTN/EVENING. CONSENSUS IS GENERALLY FOR LANDFALL NEAR
GRAND MARAIS. A BAND OF HVY LES IS EXPECTED ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
LOW...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY INDICATING THIS BAND AFFECTING
THE AREA BTWN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL ICE
COVER TOO EXTENSIVE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW...WOULD EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT LES TO IMPACT AREAS FARTHER W IN ALGER COUNTY EVEN IF
LOW IN FACT DOES MOVE ONSHORE NEAR GRAND MARAIS. HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A CORE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS (950MB WINDS OF 40-50KT) ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LOW AIMED
TOWARD THE MUNISING AREA. COMBINED WITH MESOSCALE PRES RISE/FALL
COUPLET...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BTWN DEERTON AND MUNISING. HAVE THUS
CONVERTED BLIZZARD WATCH TO WARNING FOR ALGER COUNTY...AND ISSUED
LES ADVY FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WHERE WINDS FARTHER INLAND WON`T BE
NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT. WRN EDGE OF STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL CLIP
KEWEENAW COUNTY...SO ALSO ISSUED LES ADVY THERE TONIGHT/MON MORNING
FOR CONSIDERABLE BLSN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE 2-3
INCHES. DURING THE DAY...WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT EXPANDING
ADVY OVER WRN UPPER MI AS SUFFICIENT OPEN WATER EXISTS TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD -SHSN WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VIS WHEN COMBINED WITH
OCNL BLSN.
ELSEWHERE...CONVERTED WIND CHILL WATCH TO WARNING LATE TONIGHT AS
WIND CHILLS DROP TO NEAR OR BLO -35F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE FIRST 2 DAYS /THROUGH
TUESDAY/.
FOR MON...AT 12Z THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER FAR
SERN ONTARIO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE
SFC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SHARP AS THE CLIPPER LOW DEPARTS
THE REGION AND A 1040MB HIGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES...AND
HIGH RES MODEL INDICATE A MESO LOW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON
MORNING. ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESO LOW WILL BE VERY
STRONG WINDS AND A STRONG LES BAND THAT LOOKS TO BE OVER ALGER
COUNTY. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW 925MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS W OF THE MESO
LOW...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM MON
NIGHT /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION/ INTO MON MORNING. BY 18Z MON...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE
MESO LOW SHIFTING TO THE E...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
AND NW WINDS THAT WERE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO BECOME MORE WLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL SHIFT LES WHILE WEAKENING IT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING OUT. WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS FROM THE WINDS
AND SNOW MORE FOCUSED DURING SUN NIGHT /SHORT TERM FORECAST/...WILL
TALK ABOUT THE COLD TEMPS FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE -30C TO -35C FROM 12Z-18Z MON...WARMING TO -25C TO -30C BY 00Z
TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MON OF AROUND 0F E TO AROUND
-10F WEST WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -40F /COLDEST OVER THE W HALF
IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON/.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING A LITTLE MORE WLY MON NIGHT WHILE THE COLD 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -25C...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE SPARSE OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND CENTRAL U.P. MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS AROUND
-25F OVER THE WELL INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WILL BE AOB 10KTS.
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BELOW ZERO WITH WINDS TO 15-25KTS. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO -30F TO -45F DURING THIS TIME. LES WILL CONTINUE
MON NIGHT...BUT FOR MORE WNW FAVORED SNOW BELTS. WITH WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BARELY SHIFT MORE WLY ON TUE AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO -20C TO -25C. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUE LES IN WNW WIND
SNOWBELTS. WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE SHOULD GUST TO
30-35KTS...CONTINUING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
AFTER TUE...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE WED INTO
THU...WITH DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM STILL BEING SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
WILL FOCUS ATTENTION TO FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE LONG TERM GIVEN
IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR
FORECASTS DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING LIGHT...BUT GOOD VISIBILITY RESTRICTING...SNOWFALL TO
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CLIPPER SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LEAD TO
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES TONIGHT. THINK THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KCMX TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THEY WILL TURN
TO A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR THE FINE FLAKE SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO LEAD TO AIRFIELD LANDING MINS. COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT KIWD THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHEN WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST.
KSAW IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN ON THE EXACT CONDITIONS LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS IT DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THE MESO-LOW
BEING PULLED SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL STAY FAR TO THE EAST OF THE SITE...BUT COULD SEE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT INITIALLY BEFORE WINDS BACK TO
OFF/ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE IT WILL BE
GUSTY...HAVE HELD ONTO LOWER VISIBILITIES AS CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH THEM BOUNCING BETWEEN IFR/MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NEWD THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AS IT DEEPENS THIS EVENING. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SINK TO THE SE CONUS BY
WED. EXPECT NW GALES TO 35 TO 40 KTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE
OPEN WATER REMAINS/ FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE UNDER THE SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW IN QUEBEC. THE GALES
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL SUBSIDE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/FLATTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO JAMES BAY ON THU...DRAGGING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
MAY DEVELOP ON WED NIGHT AND THU UNDER THE SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ001.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-264>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1115 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
THUS FAR FROM THE CLIPPER RUNNING A TOUCH ABOVE THE FORECAST.
THUS...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR TWO.
DID ADJUST THE GROUPINGS ON THE WIND CHILL WARNINGS TO ADD SOME
MENTIONS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
WANTED TO INCREASE THE AWARENESS OF THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR
THE NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS AS ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY. AROUND THE VORTEX...ONE SHORTWAVE IS
SWINGING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND MUCH STRONGER
WAVE IS DROPPING THRU SRN MANITOBA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. FIRST WAVE IS
SPREADING AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WI/NRN IL/NRN IN. SNOW THEN
EXTENDS BACK TO THE NW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE. FORCING AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING -SN SPREADING INTO THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE REALLY CHANGED THE
ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS WILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR
AS ICE COVER IN THE MODELS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT
STATE OF ICE. THUS...MODELS WILL BE INCORRECTLY HANDLING
WINDS/CONVERGENCE/LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THE ICE COVER THAT WAS ROUGHLY
BTWN MANITOU ISLAND AND SHOT POINT WEST TO KEWEENAW BAY IS CLEARLY
BROKEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECENT HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES AS WAS EVIDENT
FROM THE SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS THAT STREAMED INTO MARQUETTE/WRN
ALGER COUNTIES YESTEDAY. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS PLENTY OF
OPEN WATER. A BIG PORTION OF THE ICE THAT WAS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
APPEARS TO BE OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR NOW.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL FCST THINKING SINCE YESTERDAY.
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE WRN LAKES. THERE`S NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AS MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO
1G/KG. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCSTS...EXPECT A
GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL TODAY. SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL PROBABLY MAKE
FOR LOWER VIS THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE
850MB WINDS BACK ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AT LOWER LEVELS...WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE AS MESOLOW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ENHANCMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT N TO
NW AND STRENGTHEN WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE OPEN WATER...SNOW MAY BE HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE W. EVEN SO...WITH DGZ ELIMINATED BY COLD AIR...LOW
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
MORE CRITICAL PART OF THE FCST IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. DIMINISHING GRADIENT WIND FIELD AND STRENGTHENING LAND
BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY LEADING TO MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SE LAKE
SUPERIOR PER SFC/MARINE OBS. WITH STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY
SHORTWAVE...MESOLOW SHOULD REALLY SPIN UP TODAY AS IT DRIFTS N OR
NW. ALL HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS...BUT TREND
HAS BEEN FOR A MORE EWD TRACK AS THE LOW HEADS BACK S WITH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE LATE AFTN/EVENING. CONSENSUS IS GENERALLY FOR LANDFALL NEAR
GRAND MARAIS. A BAND OF HVY LES IS EXPECTED ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
LOW...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY INDICATING THIS BAND AFFECTING
THE AREA BTWN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL ICE
COVER TOO EXTENSIVE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW...WOULD EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT LES TO IMPACT AREAS FARTHER W IN ALGER COUNTY EVEN IF
LOW IN FACT DOES MOVE ONSHORE NEAR GRAND MARAIS. HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A CORE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS (950MB WINDS OF 40-50KT) ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LOW AIMED
TOWARD THE MUNISING AREA. COMBINED WITH MESOSCALE PRES RISE/FALL
COUPLET...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BTWN DEERTON AND MUNISING. HAVE THUS
CONVERTED BLIZZARD WATCH TO WARNING FOR ALGER COUNTY...AND ISSUED
LES ADVY FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WHERE WINDS FARTHER INLAND WON`T BE
NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT. WRN EDGE OF STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL CLIP
KEWEENAW COUNTY...SO ALSO ISSUED LES ADVY THERE TONIGHT/MON MORNING
FOR CONSIDERABLE BLSN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE 2-3
INCHES. DURING THE DAY...WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT EXPANDING
ADVY OVER WRN UPPER MI AS SUFFICIENT OPEN WATER EXISTS TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD -SHSN WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VIS WHEN COMBINED WITH
OCNL BLSN.
ELSEWHERE...CONVERTED WIND CHILL WATCH TO WARNING LATE TONIGHT AS
WIND CHILLS DROP TO NEAR OR BLO -35F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE FIRST 2 DAYS /THROUGH
TUESDAY/.
FOR MON...AT 12Z THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER FAR
SERN ONTARIO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE
SFC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SHARP AS THE CLIPPER LOW DEPARTS
THE REGION AND A 1040MB HIGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES...AND
HIGH RES MODEL INDICATE A MESO LOW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON
MORNING. ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESO LOW WILL BE VERY
STRONG WINDS AND A STRONG LES BAND THAT LOOKS TO BE OVER ALGER
COUNTY. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW 925MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS W OF THE MESO
LOW...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM MON
NIGHT /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION/ INTO MON MORNING. BY 18Z MON...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE
MESO LOW SHIFTING TO THE E...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
AND NW WINDS THAT WERE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO BECOME MORE WLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL SHIFT LES WHILE WEAKENING IT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING OUT. WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS FROM THE WINDS
AND SNOW MORE FOCUSED DURING SUN NIGHT /SHORT TERM FORECAST/...WILL
TALK ABOUT THE COLD TEMPS FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE -30C TO -35C FROM 12Z-18Z MON...WARMING TO -25C TO -30C BY 00Z
TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MON OF AROUND 0F E TO AROUND
-10F WEST WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -40F /COLDEST OVER THE W HALF
IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON/.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING A LITTLE MORE WLY MON NIGHT WHILE THE COLD 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -25C...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE SPARSE OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND CENTRAL U.P. MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS AROUND
-25F OVER THE WELL INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WILL BE AOB 10KTS.
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BELOW ZERO WITH WINDS TO 15-25KTS. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO -30F TO -45F DURING THIS TIME. LES WILL CONTINUE
MON NIGHT...BUT FOR MORE WNW FAVORED SNOW BELTS. WITH WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BARELY SHIFT MORE WLY ON TUE AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO -20C TO -25C. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUE LES IN WNW WIND
SNOWBELTS. WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE SHOULD GUST TO
30-35KTS...CONTINUING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
AFTER TUE...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE WED INTO
THU...WITH DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM STILL BEING SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
WILL FOCUS ATTENTION TO FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE LONG TERM GIVEN
IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR
FORECASTS DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SN TO THE AREA TODAY. DUE TO
ARCTIC AIR...SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SMALL AND THUS EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING
VIS. AS A RESULT...IFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TODAY...THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR ARE ALSO LIKELY.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS AFTN AND INCREASE TONIGHT.
COMBINATION OF -SHSN/BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD AND ESPECIALLY KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. IFR SHOULD
CONTINUE AT KSAW...BUT CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO LIFR IF SNOW IS
HEAVIER OR WIND STRONGER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NEWD THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AS IT DEEPENS THIS EVENING. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SINK TO THE SE CONUS BY
WED. EXPECT NW GALES TO 35 TO 40 KTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE
OPEN WATER REMAINS/ FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE UNDER THE SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW IN QUEBEC. THE GALES
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL SUBSIDE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/FLATTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO JAMES BAY ON THU...DRAGGING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
MAY DEVELOP ON WED NIGHT AND THU UNDER THE SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ001.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-264>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1214 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
Big warm-up on tap for today with well-above average temps. Winds
have already swung around to southerly overnight and temps have
been slowly creeping upward. The warm front now extending from the
surface low in north central Iowa into western MO will surge
eastward across the CWA this morning as the surface low moves into
the Great Lakes, with winds veering to southwest and then westerly
and strong warm advection across the area. I have boosted temps
from the previous forecast and am close to the last few hourly
runs of the RAP which appear to have a good handle on the current
temperatures here and upstream. Highs in most locations should get
into the 50s. Enjoy the warmth...it ends tonight!
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
A powerful Arctic cold front will drive like a freight train through
the CWA tonight. A strong pressure gradient and large pressure
rises behind the front all point to very strong and gusty NW winds
with the fropa. Have issued a wind advisory for all but southeast
Missouri anticipating a 3-4 period with sustained winds of 25-35
mph and gusts of 45+. In addition to intense cold advection and
plummeting temperatures, it appears that strong low level
frontogenetic forcing and weak large scale ascent will produce a
narrow band of snow immediately in the cold air. The band will be
moving so quickly and the wind blowing so hard that any
accumulations will be very light. Dangerous wind chills of 15 to
20 below zero are still on target late tonight and into Tuesday
morning across northeast MO into central IL due to various
combinations of the wind and bitterly cold ambient air
temperatures. The previously issued wind chill advisory looks
right on target for the anticipated high threat area. The bitterly
cold Arctic air mass will dominate the area into Tuesday, and will
be the coldest since the early January Arctic Outbreak.
During the later half of the week ahead and into next weekend the
upper air pattern finally breaks down. The longwave trof which has
dominated eastern NOAM for weeks will weaken and shift northeastward
as amplification occurs from the eastern Pacific into the western
U.S. and the negative phase of the PNA pattern becomes established.
There are some important differences in the deterministic model
solutions during this time frame with regards to shortwave
features with the developing wsw flow aloft, the location of a
baroclinic zone and the depth/magnitude of cold air. This leads
to greater uncertainty than normal in the details, however all
guidance points to increasing precipitation chances next weekend
and potential for wintery precipitation.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
VFR for the first 6 hours with gusty west winds diminishing late
this afternoon. Attention then turns to the very strong arctic
front which will impact all terminals tonight between 01-05z. When
the front arrives, expect a sharp wind shift to the northwest and
a rapid increase in both the sustained wind speed and wind gusts.
Based on what`s been happening upstream, some gusts may even
exceed 40 kts. In addition to bitterly cold air, scattered snow
showers may also accompany the front. At this point I`m not sure
whether any visibility restrictions for the first few hours after
fropa would be due to falling/blowing snow, blowing dust, or both.
To some extent, this may depend on the land characteristics near
and upstream of each terminal, but the winds will certainly be
strong enough to lift loose dirt and dust since there is no snow
cover and temperatures warmed into the 40s- 50s today. Winds will
gradually diminish during the day tomorrow.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR for the first 6 hours with gusty west
winds diminishing late this afternoon. Attention then turns to
the very strong arctic front which will slam through the terminal
tonight around 03-04z. When the front arrives, expect a sharp wind
shift to the northwest and a rapid increase in both the sustained
wind speed and wind gusts. Based on what`s been happening
upstream, some gusts may even exceed 40 kts. In addition to
bitterly cold air, scattered snow showers may also accompany the
front. At this point I`m not sure whether any visibility
restrictions for the first few hours after fropa would be due to
falling/blowing snow, blowing dust, or both. Winds will gradually
diminish during the day tomorrow.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Warren MO.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM Monday to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-
Shelby MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM Monday to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1254 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
WITH OBS UPSTREAM GUSTING AT/ABOVE 58 MPH...VTN AT 63 MPH AND ANW
AT 58 MPH...DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE GUSTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
SURGE OF A PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND HAVE SO FAR BEEN
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...SO WENT WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY IN CASE A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION
IS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
TURNING WINDY AND SHARPLY COLD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HUDSON BAY AND AND SWINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS...ALLOWING
ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DRASTIC END TO OUR WARMER
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES
ABOARD INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS.
CURRENTLY A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN STEADY/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM
TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MILD IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS SOME MID LEVEL
WARM AIR HAS MIXED TO THE SFC THE TEMP AT ORD JUMPED TO 53 DEGREES
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH FOR THIS AREA TODAY.
UPSTREAM...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS ADVANCING SOUTH THRU CANADA
TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD WEATHER WITH STEADY/GUSTY
WINDS WITH WINDS TRENDING UP FURTHER BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INCREASES/DEEPENS.
THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING WILL SEE THE BIGGER WEATHER
CHANGES AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 21Z
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ARCTIC FRONT REACHES THE NEB/KS STATELINE
BY 00Z AND CLEARS OUR CWA BY 03Z. TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY FALL IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS N/S THIS AFTN/EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG VERY
IMPRESSIVE THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER
OF 12MB. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP MIXING AS HIGH AS H8
WILL LEAD TO INTENSE WINDS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/WIND GUSTS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES. STILL HAVE
CONCERNS FOR REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER PER RAP SOUNDINGS AVERAGE
NEAR 50KTS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY...AND
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNING IF WINDS TREND UP
MUCH FURTHER. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN FRONTOGENESIS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT WITH LLVL MOISTURE LACKING.
TONIGHT...A 1040MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FM THE DAKOTAS ONTO
THE PLAINS...AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD MORNING
AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPS IN THE ARCTIC AIR WITH THE STEADY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
FRIGID WIND CHILLS AT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR
LOCATIONS IN NEBRASKA ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE
COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION.
IF TEMPS TREND LOWER OR WINDS REMAIN STRONGER FARTHER SOUTH...THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WIND CHILLS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND CHILL
READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 20 BELOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 15 BELOW IN THE FAR NORTH
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THE FAR NORTH AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA OFF AND ON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS TIME THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
BOTH HAVE A LITTLE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA WILL BE
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...USHERING IN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30
TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AS ARE GUSTS NEAR/OVER 50 MPH.
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO SETTLE IN...GUSTY WINDS /THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING/ WILL LINGER EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW...SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DECIDED TO INSERT
A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT AND INITIAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR. LEFT AS A TEMPO AT
THIS POINT AS MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH WHETHER THE
TERMINAL WOULD BE AFFECTED...AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS THE
AFTERNOON PASSES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ072>077-082>087.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ060>064.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADO
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1137 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
TURNING WINDY AND SHARPLY COLD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HUDSON BAY AND AND SWINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS...ALLOWING
ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DRASTIC END TO OUR WARMER
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES
ABOARD INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS.
CURRENTLY A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN STEADY/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM
TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MILD IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS SOME MID LEVEL
WARM AIR HAS MIXED TO THE SFC THE TEMP AT ORD JUMPED TO 53 DEGREES
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH FOR THIS AREA TODAY.
UPSTREAM...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS ADVANCING SOUTH THRU CANADA
TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD WEATHER WITH STEADY/GUSTY
WINDS WITH WINDS TRENDING UP FURTHER BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INCREASES/DEEPENS.
THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING WILL SEE THE BIGGER WEATHER
CHANGES AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 21Z
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ARCTIC FRONT REACHES THE NEB/KS STATELINE
BY 00Z AND CLEARS OUR CWA BY 03Z. TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY FALL IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS N/S THIS AFTN/EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG VERY
IMPRESSIVE THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER
OF 12MB. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP MIXING AS HIGH AS H8
WILL LEAD TO INTENSE WINDS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/WIND GUSTS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES. STILL HAVE
CONCERNS FOR REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER PER RAP SOUNDINGS AVERAGE
NEAR 50KTS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY...AND
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNING IF WINDS TREND UP
MUCH FURTHER. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN FRONTOGENESIS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT WITH LLVL MOISTURE LACKING.
TONIGHT...A 1040MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FM THE DAKOTAS ONTO
THE PLAINS...AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD MORNING
AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPS IN THE ARCTIC AIR WITH THE STEADY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
FRIGID WIND CHILLS AT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR
LOCATIONS IN NEBRASKA ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE
COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION.
IF TEMPS TREND LOWER OR WINDS REMAIN STRONGER FARTHER SOUTH...THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WIND CHILLS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND CHILL
READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 20 BELOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 15 BELOW IN THE FAR NORTH
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THE FAR NORTH AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA OFF AND ON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS TIME THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
BOTH HAVE A LITTLE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA WILL BE
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...USHERING IN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30
TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AS ARE GUSTS NEAR/OVER 50 MPH.
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO SETTLE IN...GUSTY WINDS /THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING/ WILL LINGER EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW...SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DECIDED TO INSERT
A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT AND INITIAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR. LEFT AS A TEMPO AT
THIS POINT AS MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH WHETHER THE
TERMINAL WOULD BE AFFECTED...AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS THE
AFTERNOON PASSES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ072>077-082>087.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
...VERY WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN BITTER COLD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST SETTING UP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF ARCTIC FRONTS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LEFT US WITHIN A VERY MILD REGIME WITH
TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. WHILE TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT`S GOING TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE...MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA 18-21Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
21-00Z. HAVE NO DOUBT WE`LL MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...THE
BIG QUESTION IS IF WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA...AS THEY HAVE WITH SEVERAL PREVIOUS FRONTS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT WE`LL
MIX VERY DEEP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR UP TO 750/725 MB.
WINDS AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE QUITE STRONG AT 60 TO 70 KNOTS. NAM
AND RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL BOTH
SUGGESTING THAT SURFACE WINDS COULD GUST TO 50 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. OTHER MODEL SUITES AREN`T QUITE AS STRONG.
COMPOUNDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE WINDS...THERE COULD BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...INITIALLY RAIN AND THEN SNOW...WHICH WILL
HELP WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. NAM DOESN`T DEVELOP
MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT NEARLY ALL OTHER MODEL SUITES DO. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT A CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
SURGE OF COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY SHOWN BY 03Z HOPWRF RUNS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY VISIBILITY DROPS ONCE THE PRECIP CHANGES
TO SNOW AS WELL...AND WHETHER THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK HALF INCH OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
HAVE OPTED TO CONVERT THE HIGH WIND WATCH INTO A HIGH WIND
WARNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I80. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...THUS WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES...
WHERE MOMENTUM MIXING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG SINCE THE SUN WILL
HAVE SET BY THEN. HIGH WIND WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE CONVERTED
INTO A WIND ADVISORY AS SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL SUBSIDES THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT WOULD BEST BE MANAGED IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH
UPDATES BASED ON REAL TIME REPORTS.
SECONDARY IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY IS THE ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.
READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...SIMILAR TO THE ARCTIC SURGE OF LAST WEEK. WHEN COUPLED
WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 29 BELOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUS WILL HAVE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COLD DAY MONDAY...AND SUB ZERO
READINGS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MONDAY
MORNING...BUT BECAUSE IT`S COLDER...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 28 BELOW OVER SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
A COLD DAY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH THE EXTENDED INVOLVE ANOTHER FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DECENT POTENTIAL TO WARM BACK INTO THE 30S...THEN COLDER
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AND STILL SOME SMALL POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF
MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE THAT.
BIGGER CONCERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS
PAINTING A FAIRLY ROBUST WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES GIVING US
A PRETTY CHANCE OF SNOW. THE ECMWF ALSO HAVE A WAVE...BUT IS A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER AND WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...
WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE
THIS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SNOW CHANCES MAY BE INCREASING LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
COUPLE ISSUES OF INTEREST DURING THE FCST PD. FIRST IS BRIEF PD
OF CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS AFTN AS WELL AS GUSTY NW
WINDS. RADAR TRENDS LAST COUPLE HOURS SHOWING AREA OF RETURNS
OVER SD MAKING A QUICK DASH SWD WITH INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS. MOST
LIKELY THAT PCPN TYPE WHEN IT ARRIVES AT KOFK WILL BE -SN
ACCOMPANIED BY BLSN/LIFR VSBYS LATE THIS AFTN. AS FOR
KOMA/KLNK...PCPN TYPE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS BRUNT OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL JUST BE ARRIVING. SUSPECT PCPN TYPE AT THOSE SITES WILL BE
-RA/SN MIX MAINLY LATE THIS AFTN AND MAYBE EARLY EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUM EXPECTED AT ANY TERMINALS.
NEXT...INTENSE SFC HIGH BUILDING SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS AROUND
45KT THIS AFTN THEN AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THEN
BY 12Z MON MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ078-088>090-092.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ068-091-093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ030-
042>045-050>053-065>068.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ090-091.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ069-079-
080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
531 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...USHERING IN YET ANOTHER BLAST OF DANGEROUSLY
COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO
SUPERBOWL WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT AND ASSOC BAND OF LGT OVERRUNNING SNOW IS RAPIDLY
LIFTING THRU NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
AND RAP GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY LGT SNOW
WILL CLEAR THE N TIER COUNTIES BY ARND 00Z. ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR
LESS HAVE BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND
CENTRAL MTNS.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DRY WX FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ONLY FORCING SOUTH
OF WARM FRONT WILL BE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE N MTNS...BUT
MOISTURE SHOULD BE TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW FLURRIES. HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND
THE CENTRAL MTNS BY ARND 12Z. BLEND OF MDL QPF IMPLIES A FRESH
INCH OR SO IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW MTNS TOWARDS DAWN.
TEMPS ARE RISING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNDER CLOUD COVER AND WARM
ADVECTION. BY 12Z TEMPS SHOULD HAVE FALLEN BACK TO THE UTEENS
ACROSS THE NW MTNS BEHIND THE CDFRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...SREF
AND GEFS OUTPUT SUGGEST SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN PA MAY CREEP ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE LATEST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A MONTH OF STRONG ARCTIC FRONTS WILL
BE RACING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH THE TEMP STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON A GUSTY WNW WIND. BY EVENING...TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NW TO NEAR 20 IN
HARRISBURG. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RUNNING ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE
LAURELS AND NRN MOUNTAINS...AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 ABOVE ZERO
ELSEWHERE.
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE QPF...USING A BLEND OF
SREF/ECMWF/GFS AND HPC NUMBERS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE INCREDIBLY DRY
AND GETTING LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GR LAKES.
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AROUND 1 INCH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY THE
LAURELS UP THROUGH THE NW MOUNTAINS. CONCERN IS THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SQUALLS AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z
WRF. FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT
ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING HOWEVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR AND FLOW AROUND THE CIRCUMPOLAR VORTEX...EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IS FORECAST TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK. AIRFLOW OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN MAY ONCE AGAIN MAKE INROADS OUR WAY LATER IN THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER ALASKA IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION...AS WELL AS A
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR STORMINESS BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT LEADING THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL AFFECT PA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK HAVING MOVED THROUGH RIGHT
BEFORE THE START OF THE PERIOD. THUS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND DRY. COLD FROPA NEXT FRIDAY MAY STALL TO
THE SOUTH OF PA AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS SRN
STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PUSH EAST. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE RETURN
OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY BE INTERESTING
IN TERMS OF PCPN AS WE HEAD TOWARD GROUNDHOGS DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY LIGHT SNOW CAME IN REAL FAST THIS AFT...FASTER THAN
WHAT I WOULD EXPECTED.
ANYWAY...SOME CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS RACING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. AS
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES ARE THE FIRST TO PLUNGE...DOWN TO AROUND A
MILE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FCST AREA.
STILL BELIEVE THE SERN TERMINALS WILL BENEFIT FROM THE BULK OF
THE WEATHER LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION...REMAINING VFR INTO
MONDAY.
EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF SNOW
DEPARTS. BFD/JST MAY NOT SHARE IN THE IMPROVEMENT...BUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE VIZ/CIGS IMPROVE WITH THE ENDING
OF THE SNOW.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
AREA IMPROVING TO VFR. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
WHERE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE DRY ARCTIC AIR
BRINGS CLEARING SKIES EVEN THERE.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR WITH -SHSN WEST...MAINLY VFR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>026-033>035-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN