Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/24/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
850 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2014
.Near Term [Through Rest of Tonight]...
The main story will be the continuation of our cold weather. The
large scale pattern this evening is highlighted by a trough from
mid-Atlc to low over Srn Great Lakes WSW towards 4 corners leaving
SE region in weak cyclonic or almost zonal flow at base of trough.
Extensive mid and mainly high clouds streaming Ewd over Srn
Conus. Shortwaves continue to eject from trough from the Rockies
east kicking reinforcing cold fronts Ewd. At surface, 1045mb high
over Cntrl Conus and a poorly defined arctic cold front aligned
largely across Ern Big Bend at 01z. Front marked mainly by slight
increase NW winds behind front vs near calm winds ahead...and
especially by sharp dew point gradient...10 to 19 degrees just
upstream and 25 to 30 just downstream. Dew points across N/Cntrl
AL already in single digits. All this reflected in area RAP 13
soundings with light NLY flow sfc to H85 then strong WSW flow H85
to H2. PWAT only about 0.3 inches even with passing front.
Cold front should be east of I-75 in next few hours. Satellite...00z
TAE RAOB...HRRR high cloud model show high clouds H6 and above
moving WNW over waters and mainly S/E of I-10 into midnight. NW
winds will increase beginning in the next few hours 10 to 15 mph
with higher gusts...higher along the coast. Strong cold air
advection will develop dropping dew points to single digits inland
to around 10 degrees at the coast by sunrise. This will send low
temperatures below freezing. A model blend gives lows ranging from
around 20 deg north of Albany and Dothan, to upper 20s around
Cross City and along the FL beaches.
Hard freeze warning includes all of our forecast area (except for
the beaches). This is probably a little bigger than it needs to
be, but it matches our neighbors. The rather strong winds will
combine with the cold temperatures to send wind chills into the
teens necessitating a wind chill advisory for our entire area.
&&
.Aviation...[Through 00Z Saturday]
Mainly mid and upper level cloudiness will stream over the terminals
through mid morning Friday. Gusty northerly winds will increase to
15 to 20 knots between 06z and 08z before decreasing in the 16 to
18z timeframe on Friday. Thereafter, clear skies and light winds
will continue through the end of the 00z TAF cycle.
&&
.Prev Discussions [250 PM EST]...
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
After the passage of another Arctic front tonight, temperatures
will struggle to warm during the day on Friday. The official
forecast went closer to the raw model consensus for Friday high
temperatures rather than the MOS due to poor performance of the
MOS during the Arctic outbreak earlier this month (MOS was too
warm during the day and too cold at night almost everywhere in our
area) and good performance of the raw model consensus,
particularly the locally generated CAM ensemble mean. On Friday
night, an elongated area of high pressure is expected to be
centered over the region, providing the opportunity for favorable
radiational cooling conditions provided high clouds stay to the
south. MOS tends to perform better in radiational cooling
scenarios, so the forecast leaned closer to the MOS consensus for
Friday night. This yields another hard freeze over most of the
area except for the coastal zones. A temporary warm-up back to
near average temperatures for this time of year will commence on
Saturday as winds turn more to the west and southwest.
.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Models still continue to show a weak Gulf low developing over the
weekend and ejecting ENE to north Florida by Sunday night. This
should allow for an increase in cloud cover and rain chances
Sunday into Monday with moderating temperatures. The rain would
most likely be light. Another cold front is expected Monday with
the east coast trough amplifying again. This should provide a
return to overnight freezes and cool days for the remainder of the
forecast period as a Canadian high moves in behind the cold front.
.Marine...
Northerly winds and seas will rapidly increase to advisory levels
tonight as another Arctic cold front passes over the northern
Gulf. Advisory conditions will then quickly diminish by Friday
afternoon as the calm center of high pressure spreads south.
However, advisory conditions will once again be possible this
weekend with the approach of another frontal system with strong
westerly winds.
.Fire Weather...
An unusually dry airmass will move into the area tonight and
Friday. Despite a cold day on Friday, we still expect RH values
to drop a little below 20% Friday afternoon, with Red Flag
conditions in Southeast AL. It will be more humid on Saturday so
Red Flag conditions are unlikely. However, an increase in winds
may cause daytime dispersion values to exceed 75.
.Hydrology...
Area creeks and rivers are steady or falling with no hydrologic
concerns. No significant rainfall is expected through the next
week.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 25 43 21 62 38 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 28 44 31 60 43 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 22 39 25 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 21 38 23 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 23 41 22 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 28 46 23 62 40 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 30 45 27 60 45 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 11
AM EST /10 AM CST/ Friday for Calhoun-Central Walton-
Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
Washington.
Hard Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9
AM CST/ Friday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington.
Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
Liberty-Madison-Washington.
GA...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday
for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
Tift-Turner-Worth.
Hard Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for Baker-Ben
Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
Turner-Worth.
Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
Hard Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT/DVD
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...DVD/BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
305 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STRATUS BELOW AROUND 5000
FT MSL IS BEING OVERRIDDEN BY PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS SW
IDAHO...WHICH IS LIMITING SOLAR COMPONENT FAVORABLE FOR ERODING
THE PESKY BLEAK GRAY LAYER OVER SW IDAHO. NORTH TO EAST WINDS
ALOFT AND A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRATUS...PROBABLY FROM BOISE TO PAYETTE
TO BAKER CITY...FOR A FEW HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
KEEP UPSLOPE STRATUS GOING ACROSS THE NW MAGIC VALLEY AS THE SOUTH
FRINGE OF THE STRATUS ERODES SOUTH OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OPTOMISTIC ON GETTING RID OF
THE STRATUS ABOVE 2500-3000 FT MSL AND INVERSION REFORMS ANYWAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SO OTHER THAN MINOR SLOSHING AROUND WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS THE STRATUS LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BELOW 3500-5000
FT MSL IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES
TO THE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BLOCKING
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
DEEP ARCTIC LOWS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. CONTINUED FOG AND STRATUS IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND MAGIC VALLEYS AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ABOVE 5K FEET
MSL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN NEXT
WEEK AFTER TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO OUR AREA
AND BETTER MIXING POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FZFG AT
KBOI KONO KTWF KJER KBKE. STRATUS TOPS AT 5K FEET MSL IN TREASURE
AND MAGIC VALLEY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AT
KMYL KBNO. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 15-
25KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT AT 0Z THU.
&&
.AIR STAGNATION...STAGNANT PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA/WH
AVIATION.....KA
AIR STAGNATION...VM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LINCOLN IL
218 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 211 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
WILL BE EXTENDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
STRONG COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE OF THE
INCOMING ARCTIC AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL LEAD TO
WIND CHILLS BELOW -15F THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN WAY OF RECOVERY TOMORROW AS LOWEST
HEIGHTS ARE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH THE 1049 MB HIGH MOVING SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST,
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AND NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW -10F FOR
WIND CHILL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET FOR A WHILE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN THE IJX AREA SOUTHEAST INTO LWV, IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL
LIKELY FALL BACK INTO CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. PLAN ON
EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
MAIN RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF UNDER CLEAR SKIES. UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS, SOME AREAS, PARTICULAR ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS,
MAY BE COLDER FRIDAY MORNING THAN TOMORROW MORNING. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT, TEMPS MAY START TO
RISE IN THE WEST, BUT THE INCREASE IN WIND WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND CHILL. BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE IN FULL SWING.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT,
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THERMAL EVOLUTION, BUT EVEN TIMING OF
FAST-MOVING CLIPPERS IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN REASONABLE SYNC.
WARMING WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
RESPONDING TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED
TO CLIMB 10C OR SO DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE
BULK OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
NEXT MAJOR WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF IT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. LATEST MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE SUGGESTS THE TRACK
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD CUTOFF BETWEEN IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL
NEAR THE LOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
VERY COLD AIR WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS FALLING
CLOSE TO READINGS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR CURRENT COLD BLAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BARKER
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
COLD FRONT STARTING TO CROSS KPIA AT MIDDAY AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
ALL CENTRAL ILLINOIS TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. NARROW CLEAR SLOT
WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM IOWA WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME, ALTHOUGH MANY
UPSTREAM OBS IN CENTRAL IOWA HAVE CEILINGS BACK UP TO AROUND 4000
FEET OR SO. LARGER AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO
MINNESOTA. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS
THESE CEILINGS AFFECTING CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING, BUT THIS
AREA APPEARS MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE, AND WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW WELL
IT HOLDS TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET.
SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES OCCURRING IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN THE KPIA-KCMI CORRIDOR, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY EVENING,
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1218 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHEN TRYING TO DESCRIBE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...IT IS SIMILAR
TO A CAR STUCK IN NEUTRAL. THE ENGINE STARTS UP...BUT DOESN`T GO
ANYWHERE. MOTHER NATURE CLEARLY HAS DECIDED TO LOCK THE REGION
INTO A COLD PATTERN...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE PROGGED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SO IF YOU ENJOYED THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...GOOD NEWS...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. ALAS WE ARE WITHIN TWO
WEEKS OF SEEING WHAT A SPECIAL GROUNDHOG WILL PREDICT.
THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN RELATIVELY QUIET...HOWEVER THIS WILL MERELY
BE A TEASE AS A CLIPPER CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ARRIVE ACROSS WISC SPREADING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH
LATER THIS MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
DYNAMICS WITH THIS NEXT WAVE HAVE STRENGTHENED MARGINALLY...WITH A
NARROW CHANNEL OF MOISTENING/ASCENDING PARCELS INTO A FAVORABLE DGZ.
THE BEST AREA FOR LIGHT ACCUMUS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DIXON TO KANKAKEE TO FOWLER LINE...WITH GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.0
SNOWFALL. SOUTH OF THIS LINE UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS
POSSIBLE...MEANWHILE A NARROW AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST IL COULD SEE
UP TO 2.0 INCHES OF FRESH POWDERY SNOWFALL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
TEENS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE
LINGERING POTENT THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THAT
TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM WITH WINDS
HAVING BECOME SOUTHERLY. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW TO UPPER
TEENS.
CLIPPER WILL PUSH INTO WESTCENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE...WITH A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
IL AND VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. A
SHARP INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT AS A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...AND
UNFORTUNATELY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO TO ARND 0 NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WELL BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS WEST OF I-355. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 30-35 MPH AND FORECAST TEMPS...WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO ARND -20 TO -25 TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY IN FORECAST TEMPS/WINDS...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY/FORECAST...HIGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WHILE THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...THE EFFECTS WILL
LINGER WITH CLOUDS HOLDING THRU THUR MORNING BEFORE THE STRONG SFC
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO ERODE THE LINGERING MOISTURE
BY THE AFTN HOURS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWFA THUR...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS IN THE FAR WESTERN CWFA
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO THUR. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY THUR...HOWEVER NOT AS
POTENT AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS IT APPEARS WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL RISE ABOVE CRITERIA TO -5 TO -15 DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED UP WITH YET ANOTHER BLUSTERY NIGHT HEADING
INTO FRI.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY THUR EVENING...ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY
WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
STEADILY WARM THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT STARTING ARND -20 DEG C TO ARND
-9 DEG C BY DAYBREAK FRI. WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CHALLENGE FOR
SFC TEMPS...AND CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THUR EVE
BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND AFT MIDNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNS THUR NGT/EARLY FRI...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING WIND CHILL
VALUES BACK TO AT LEAST -20 TO -25 TO POSSIBLY NEARING -30 DEG F BY
MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WIND CHILL WARNING
CRITERIA...SO DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST ANY WIND CHILL WATCH YET.
ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES EAST ACROSS MANITOBA TOWARDS JAMES
BAY FRI...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN IL FRI NGT. PRIOR TO FROPA...WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS COULD SEE A QUICK BUMP INTO THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPR 20S FRI...AND THAT MAY EVEN BE A TAD TOO
CONSERVATIVE. WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A HANDFUL OF
POINTS TAG 30-32 DEGREES...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LATE WEEK WAVE...INDICATING SNOW ACCUMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT RATIOS WILL HOVER IN THE 20:1 TO 25:1...WITH
POSSIBLY 1-3" OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK SAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DIXON IL TO FOWLER IN LINE.
CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THUR NGT...HIGH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG MINIMAL CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN...HOWEVER SOME MINOR RELAXING MAY TAKE PLACE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIODS WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN CANADA.
THROUGH AT LEAST MON...THE WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WILL FLIRT WITH +4
SIGMA. THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LOCKS THE TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS HAVE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR
SUN...AND PRESENTLY IS EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
MARGINALLY WITH THE RECENT CYCLES BEGINNING TO HAVE SOME
CONSISTENCY. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS FAVORABLE ON THE NOSE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH A FLATTENING IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWFA. THIS MAY BE AN EARLY INDICATION THAT AN FGEN BAND
COULD DEVELOP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
ARCTIC AIR RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS YET AGAIN
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT AND STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW SUN...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LIGHT SNOW ENDING WITHIN THE HOUR BUT WITH LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR/IFR VIS
POSSIBLE.
* A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE INCREASING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING.
* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VIS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
EXIT WITHIN THE HOUR...BUT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND FRONT. THIS SNOW IS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH DONT EXPECT THE BETTER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR
MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOWEST VISIBILITY IN THIS SNOW COULD
STILL DROP TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES...BUT WITH THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 MILES UNTIL THIS SNOW EXITS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EVENING...AS A BULK OF THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. DID CLEAR OUT SKIES OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS CLOUD SHIELD APPEARS TO BE NARROW IN COVERAGE PER
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ORIENTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WHILE
INCREASING WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF AROUND 30KT STILL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SNOW TRENDS WITHIN THE HOUR...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE WITH SNOW TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW
LIKELY. A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...CHANCE SNOW. IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
339 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SEVERAL HEADLINE WORTHY WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE LAKE.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE LAKE...A STRONG PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL SETUP SOME GALE FORCE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
THEREFORE I UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND MOVED IT UP A
FEW HOURS. I ALSO INCLUDED MY INDIANA NEAR SHORES IN THIS
WARNING...AS IT APPEARS A NARROW CHANNEL OF STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40
KT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LAND-LAKE CONVERGENCE
LAKE EFFECT BAND. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF GALES ALONG MY
ILLINOIS NEAR SHORES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT HERE...I FELT BETTER GOING WITH A 30 KT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND MENTIONING SOME 35 KT GALE FORCE GUSTS. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL ABATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG GALES WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS EVENT AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HIGH END
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF 45 KT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY ON BOTH THE NORTH
AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL EVEN OCCUR WITH THIS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. I HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. A
GALE WATCH OR STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT.
IF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY GALES UP TO 40 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON
THURSDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9 PM
WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...3 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1145 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1000 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014
Cold front approaching the western CWA late this morning, about to
cross the Mississippi River shortly. Areas of light snow and
flurries have been moving through mainly the northern half of the
forecast area, periodically reducing visibilities to around 4
miles, although some heavier snow showers going through the Quad
Cities have brought visibilities down to around 2 miles. Have
increased PoP`s across mainly the northern CWA. The grids and
zones are a bit difficult to reconcile in this situation, as there
will likely be a widespread area of flurries, but only about a
30-40% chance that it would accumulate. Anything measurable would
likely be over the next few hours as the front passes.
A narrow clear slot, about 30-50 miles wide, will be moving into
the northwest CWA shortly, but a larger area of clouds behind the
front will keep skies mostly cloudy overall through the day.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014
Cold front starting to cross KPIA at midday and should be through
all central Illinois TAF sites by mid afternoon. Narrow clear slot
will advance through the area, but additional clouds moving in
from Iowa will produce MVFR ceilings for a time, although many
upstream obs in central Iowa have ceilings back up to around 4000
feet or so. Larger area of MVFR ceilings from northern Iowa into
Minnesota. Will need to watch this as the RAP model suggests
these ceilings affecting central Illinois this evening, but this
area appears more diurnal in nature, and will wait to see how well
it holds together after sunset.
Some lower visibilities occurring in scattered snow showers,
mainly in the KPIA-KCMI corridor, and this will continue for a few
more hours.
Northwest winds will ramp up behind the front and by evening,
gusts of 20-30 knots are expected. This will likely persist into
Thursday morning.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014
Will issue a wind chill advisory across central and southeast IL
from 9 pm this evening through noon on Thursday for wind chills
between 15 and 25 below zero. Northern areas will come close to
wind chill warning criteria of 25 below zero or colder late
tonight into mid morning Thursday. A wind chill advisory may be
needed again Thursday night into mid morning Friday.
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night
A long wave upper level trof will remain over the eastern states
through next week with temps staying below normal, though some
brief modification this weekend. Series of clipper systems/
northern stream short waves will continue to dive SE into the
region every few days bring periodic chances of light snow. 1st
one to mainly pass to our NE today and then next one arriving
Friday night and another one on Sunday with better chance of light
snow accumulations Friday night and Sunday.
504 dm 500 mb low between Hudson Bay and Lake Superior will send
a northern stream short wave/clipper SE into the great lakes
region today. Central IL will be on the SW fringe of this system
and only expect a chance of light snow or flurries today with
light dusting from I-74 NE. Short wave quickly exits SE into the
upper Ohio river valley while 1048 mb arctic high pressure settles
into the central Plains Thu and into AR/western TN by dawn Friday.
Arctic cold front passes SE through central IL this afternoon with
brisk NW winds behind the front driving down wind chills. Arctic
air mass in place through Friday morning to ensure wind chills of
15 to 25 below zero after 9 pm this evening, though SE counties
will likely not reach the criteria until during overnight and
continue Thu morning. Areas from I-74 north could see wind chills
reach 25 below zero or colder for a few hours late tonight into
mid morning Thu and may need to upgrade to a wind chill warning.
Another very cold night expected Thursday night with lows zero to
5 below zero while wind chills back down to 15 to 23 below zero
Thu night into mid morning Friday. Increased SW winds Friday with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely and helping to raise temps into the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with SW areas 30-32F by
Jacksonville and west. Another strong clipper system dives into
the Great Lakes region Friday night and appears to bring better
chances of light snow accumulations to central IL with up to 1
inch possible and possibly a bit more NE of I-74. Will be windy
with some blowing of this snow Friday night into Saturday morning
as light snow diminishes then. Highs Sat range from mid 20s north
of Peoria to 30-35F from I-72 south.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday
Yet another clipper system to bring a chance of light snow to the
IL river valley overnight Sat night and across the area on Sunday
as it moves into the great lakes region. Could be light snow
accumulations again near 1 inch or less especially from I-74 NE.
Highs Sunday in the upper 20s NE and 30-35F SW areas. Then another
surge of arctic air to arrive early next work week and wind chills
could reach 15 to 20 below zero Monday night. The 8-14 day outlook
through Feb 4 continues 50-65% chance of below normal temperatures
and 40% chance of above normal precipitation which would likely
fall as more snow.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to Noon CST Thursday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
340 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHEN TRYING TO DESCRIBE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...IT IS SIMILAR
TO A CAR STUCK IN NEUTRAL. THE ENGINE STARTS UP...BUT DOESN`T GO
ANYWHERE. MOTHER NATURE CLEARLY HAS DECIDED TO LOCK THE REGION
INTO A COLD PATTERN...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE PROGGED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SO IF YOU ENJOYED THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...GOOD NEWS...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. ALAS WE ARE WITHIN TWO
WEEKS OF SEEING WHAT A SPECIAL GROUNDHOG WILL PREDICT.
THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN RELATIVELY QUIET...HOWEVER THIS WILL MERELY
BE A TEASE AS A CLIPPER CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ARRIVE ACROSS WISC SPREADING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH
LATER THIS MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
DYNAMICS WITH THIS NEXT WAVE HAVE STRENGTHENED MARGINALLY...WITH A
NARROW CHANNEL OF MOISTENING/ASCENDING PARCELS INTO A FAVORABLE DGZ.
THE BEST AREA FOR LIGHT ACCUMUS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DIXON TO KANKAKEE TO FOWLER LINE...WITH GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.0
SNOWFALL. SOUTH OF THIS LINE UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS
POSSIBLE...MEANWHILE A NARROW AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST IL COULD SEE
UP TO 2.0 INCHES OF FRESH POWDERY SNOWFALL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
TEENS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE
LINGERING POTENT THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THAT
TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM WITH WINDS
HAVING BECOME SOUTHERLY. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW TO UPPER
TEENS.
CLIPPER WILL PUSH INTO WESTCENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE...WITH A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
IL AND VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. A
SHARP INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT AS A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...AND
UNFORTUNATELY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO TO ARND 0 NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WELL BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS WEST OF I-355. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 30-35 MPH AND FORECAST TEMPS...WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO ARND -20 TO -25 TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY IN FORECAST TEMPS/WINDS...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY/FORECAST...HIGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WHILE THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...THE EFFECTS WILL
LINGER WITH CLOUDS HOLDING THRU THUR MORNING BEFORE THE STRONG SFC
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO ERODE THE LINGERING MOISTURE
BY THE AFTN HOURS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWFA THUR...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS IN THE FAR WESTERN CWFA
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO THUR. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY THUR...HOWEVER NOT AS
POTENT AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS IT APPEARS WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL RISE ABOVE CRITERIA TO -5 TO -15 DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED UP WITH YET ANOTHER BLUSTERY NIGHT HEADING
INTO FRI.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY THUR EVENING...ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY
WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
STEADILY WARM THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT STARTING ARND -20 DEG C TO ARND
-9 DEG C BY DAYBREAK FRI. WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CHALLENGE FOR
SFC TEMPS...AND CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THUR EVE
BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND AFT MIDNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNS THUR NGT/EARLY FRI...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING WIND CHILL
VALUES BACK TO AT LEAST -20 TO -25 TO POSSIBLY NEARING -30 DEG F BY
MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WIND CHILL WARNING
CRITERIA...SO DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST ANY WIND CHILL WATCH YET.
ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES EAST ACROSS MANITOBA TOWARDS JAMES
BAY FRI...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN IL FRI NGT. PRIOR TO FROPA...WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS COULD SEE A QUICK BUMP INTO THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPR 20S FRI...AND THAT MAY EVEN BE A TAD TOO
CONSERVATIVE. WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A HANDFUL OF
POINTS TAG 30-32 DEGREES...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LATE WEEK WAVE...INDICATING SNOW ACCUMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT RATIOS WILL HOVER IN THE 20:1 TO 25:1...WITH
POSSIBLY 1-3" OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK SAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DIXON IL TO FOWLER IN LINE.
CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THUR NGT...HIGH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG MINIMAL CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN...HOWEVER SOME MINOR RELAXING MAY TAKE PLACE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIODS WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN CANADA.
THROUGH AT LEAST MON...THE WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WILL FLIRT WITH +4
SIGMA. THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LOCKS THE TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS HAVE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR
SUN...AND PRESENTLY IS EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
MARGINALLY WITH THE RECENT CYCLES BEGINNING TO HAVE SOME
CONSISTENCY. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS FAVORABLE ON THE NOSE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH A FLATTENING IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWFA. THIS MAY BE AN EARLY INDICATION THAT AN FGEN BAND
COULD DEVELOP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
ARCTIC AIR RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS YET AGAIN
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT AND STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW SUN...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS.
* PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE.
* COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...AND WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VIS AND
CONTAMINATE PLOWED SURFACES.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS SET TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THE
SNOW COULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT SETS
UP IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST TIME FOR IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS
THIS WELL HANDLED...SO I DID NOT STRAY FROM THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE BETTER SNOWFALL. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS AND A HOUR OR SO SOONER AT KRFD.
ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KT FOR A PERIOD.
THESE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF
BLSN...EVEN AFTER THE SNOW STOPS FALLING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...BUT LIKELY NOT BELOW 5SM.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GRADUAL LOWERING VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/IMPACTS OF SNOW ON VIS/CIG
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW JUST OFF TO THE
EAST OF ORD/MDW.
FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WITH BLOWING
SNOW LIKELY...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR.
RATZER/KB
&&
.MARINE...
339 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SEVERAL HEADLINE WORTHY WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE LAKE.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE LAKE...A STRONG PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL SETUP SOME GALE FORCE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
THEREFORE I UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND MOVED IT UP A
FEW HOURS. I ALSO INCLUDED MY INDIANA NEAR SHORES IN THIS
WARNING...AS IT APPEARS A NARROW CHANNEL OF STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40
KT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LAND-LAKE CONVERGENCE
LAKE EFFECT BAND. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF GALES ALONG MY
ILLINOIS NEAR SHORES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT HERE...I FELT BETTER GOING WITH A 30 KT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND MENTIONING SOME 35 KT GALE FORCE GUSTS. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL ABATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG GALES WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS EVENT AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HIGH END
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF 45 KT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY ON BOTH THE NORTH
AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL EVEN OCCUR WITH THIS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. I HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. A
GALE WATCH OR STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT.
IF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY GALES UP TO 40 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
THURSDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...3 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014
Will issue a wind chill advisory across central and southeast IL
from 9 pm this evening through noon on Thursday for wind chills
between 15 and 25 below zero. Northern areas will come close to
wind chill warning criteria of 25 below zero or colder late
tonight into mid morning Thursday. A wind chill advisory may be
needed again Thurday night into mid morning Friday.
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night
A long wave upper level trof will remain over the eastern states
through next week with temps staying below normal, though some
brief modification this weekend. Series of clipper systems/
northern stream short waves will continue to dive se into the
region every few days bring periodic chances of light snow. 1st
one to mainly pass to our ne today and then next one arriving
Friday night and another one on Sunday with better chance of light
snow accumulations Friday night and Sunday.
504 dm 500 mb low between Hudson Bay and Lake Superior will send
a northern stream short wave/clipper se into the great lakes
region today. Central IL will be on the sw fringe of this system
and only expect a chance of light snow or flurries today with
light dusting from I-74 ne. Short wave quickly exits se into the
upper ohio river valley while 1048 mb arctic high pressure settles
into the central Plains Thu and into AR/western TN by dawn Friday.
Arctic cold front passes se through central IL this afternoon with
brisk nw winds behind the front driving down wind chills. Arctic
air mass in place through Friday morning to ensure wind chills of
15 to 25 below zero after 9 pm this evening, though se counties
will likely not reach the criteria until during overnight and
continue Thu morning. AReas from I-74 north could see wind chills
reach 25 below zero or colder for a few hours late tonight into
mid morning Thu and may need to upgrade to a wind chill warning.
Another very cold night expected Thursday night with lows zero to
5 below zero while wind chills back down to 15 to 23 below zero
Thu night into mid morning Friday. Increased sw winds Friday with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely and helping to raise temps into the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with sw areas 30-32F by
Jacksonville and west. Another strong clipper system dives into
the Great Lakes region Friday night and appears to bring better
chances of light snow accumulations to central IL with up to 1
inch possible and possibly a bit nore ne of I-74. Will be windy
with some blowing of this snow Friday night into Saturday morning
as light snow diminishes then. Highs Sat range from mid 20s north
of Peoria to 30-35F from I-72 south.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday
Yet another clipper system to bring a chance of light snow to the
IL river valley overnight Sat night and across the area on Sunday
as it moves into the great lakes region. Could be light snow
accumulations again near 1 inch or less especilly from I-74 ne.
Highs Sunday in the upper 20s ne and 30-35F sw areas. Then another
surge of arctic air to arrive early next work week and wind chills
could reach 15 to 20 below zero Monday night. The 8-14 day outlook
through Feb 4 continues 50-65% chance of below normal temperatures
and 40% chance of above normal precipitation which would likely
fall as more snow.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014
Main forecast challenge will be if cigs drop to MVFR Wednesday
afternoon and evening behind another strong surge of Arctic air.
Cloud bases continue to slowly lower late this evening and expect
this trend to continue overnight as another fast moving weather
system approaches our area from the northwest. Already seeing some
isolated flurries being reported over parts of central and eastern
Iowa in advance of the upper wave. Coverage of activity out to our
west is quite limited and based on the 00Z ILX sounding, the dry
atmosphere present in our area may keep the flurries from being much
of a factor thru most of this forecast period. A few models suggest
cigs may lower to MVFR after the cold frontal passage tomorrow
afternoon. Both the HRRR and RAP models indicate cig bases will lower
to between 3000-3500 feet by afternoon just behind the cold front.
We trended in that direction with the 00z forecast and see no strong
evidence at this point to make any significant changes.
Another concern will be with the gusty northwest winds that will
be dominant behind the Arctic cold front tomorrow afternoon thru
tomorrow night. Initially, surface winds will be light southerly
late tonight, and then south to southwest at 10 to 15 kts tomorrow
morning. Just after FROPA, expect northwest winds to prevail at 12
to 17 kts with Bufkit soundings indicating gusts in the 25 to 30 kt
range tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to Noon CST Thursday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1148 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
913 PM CST
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER COUNTY PRIOR
TO ITS ORIGINAL MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION...AS LAKE SNOW BAND CONTINUES
TO DETERIORATE. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
03Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
IL...WITH DIMINISHING/BACKING WINDS HELPING TO ALLOW EARLIER
STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. RADAR TRENDS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOW WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE LINGERS INTO
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY...THOUGH REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND EXPECT CONTINUED DECAY AS RIDGE AXIS AT
THE SURFACE AND JUST ALOFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST.
OVER NORTHERN IL...EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVER SNOW COVER HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS IN MANY SPOTS AWAY FROM CHICAGO...THOUGH INCREASING
HIGH/MID CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THESE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEAKER MEMBER OF A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH
THE IL/WI STATE LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN/NORTH CENTRAL IL BY
SUNRISE. HAVE PUSHED THE START OF POPS BACK JUST A LITTLE FROM
06-09Z IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS/TSECTS...WHICH INDICATE
SOME MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS MUST OCCUR FIRST AS LARGE SCALE
FORCING BEGINS TO INCREASE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES MADE INTO TOMORROW.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 PM CST
SYNOPSIS...BUSY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLIPPER COUNT CONTINUING TO INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES AND UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHARP RIDGING IS STRETCHED FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IS A CORRIDOR OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS RATHER
SUBTLE BUT PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THE NEXT WAVE IS MORE ORGANIZED AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. OVERALL THIS SAME PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TRACKS OF THE VARIOUS
SURFACE LOWS WILL VARY QUITE A BIT.
LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...FIRST UP IS CONTINUING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA. SYNOPTIC SCALE
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAS BEGUN TO
TURN WESTERLY WITH SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWING AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE
BAND FURTHER UP THE LAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS A BIT BETTER
ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO EASTERN
ILLINOIS KEEPING A STEADIER NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION...WHILE THE
FLOW TO THE EAST HAS BEEN WEAKER AND MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MESOSCALE
LAKE INFLUENCES. AS A RESULT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND HAS
BEEN ORIENTED TO THE SOUTHWEST KEEPING IT ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE CIRCULATIONS/EDDIES MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAND WHICH
HAVE BEEN HELPING THE BAND TO UNDULATE BACK AND FORTH FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT THE
INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE BAND
SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A MORE PRONOUNCED TRACK TO THE EAST...THOUGH
THIS MAY BE GRADUAL. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WITH THE WEAK FLOW
REGIME OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE... LAND BREEZE PROCESS
MAY TAKE OVER AND HELP UNDULATE THE BAND BACK WEST AGAIN LATER THIS
EVENING. DO EXPECT THAT THE WESTERLY AND EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH THE CONVERGENCE BACK OFFSHORE SOME TIME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR. WITH ALL
OF THIS WILL LET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUE UNTIL 5 PM
CST FOR LAKE COUNTY WITH THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO WORK
INTO PORTER BY ABOUT THAT TIME. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR PORTER
AND EXTEND IT UNTIL MIDNIGHT THINKING THAT SNOW COVERAGE MAY BEGIN
TO DECREASE/BECOME MORE BROKEN WITH TIME. INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
WILL LIKELY STILL OCCUR...BUT THEY MAY BE FOR A SHORTER DURATION.
THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS...WITH SOME CHANCE
PORTER WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED IF THE REFLECTIVITY REMAINS
PERSISTENT AND THAT LAKE COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
MDB/ED F
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE
ARRIVING EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS PRONOUNCED THAN IT CURRENTLY IS. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING SHOULD BE CENTERED ABOVE THE DENDRITIC ZONE GIVEN HOW LOW IT
IS DUE TO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS FIRST WAVE OF FORCING
WILL PUSH ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND LOOKS TO BRING AROUND A HALF
INCH OF ACCUMULATION TO MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME OF THE MORNING
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION GIVEN HOW
FAR SOUTH IT EXTENDS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE CURRENT
TIME...SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW. THE BETTER ORGANIZED WAVE NOTED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL THEN PIVOT THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL IN TURN DRAG A SHARP
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND ROUND OF SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER FORCING IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE SO
A BRIEF BUT INTENSE PERIOD OF SNOW MAY RESULT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT TOO WITH
A DRY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL AMOUNTS BY EARLY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH AT THIS POINT BUT IF THE AFTERNOON
SNOW IS MORE INTENSE THEN THIS MAY ITSELF BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES...ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH WARM
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE
REACHED EARLY TONIGHT...IN THE 0 TO 7 OR 8 BELOW RANGE...BEFORE
WARMING TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT SO WIND
CHILLS LOOK TO BE JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH. HIGHS DO
LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT INTO THE TEENS BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
PUSH LOWS BACK TO AROUND OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ALSO RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NORTH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE A STRONG HIGH MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPING WINDS FURTHER WEST NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR CONVERGENCE DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE AGAIN FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSE ASCENT OVER THE LAKE AND THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN IT LOOKED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DURATION OF FAVORABLE WINDS LOOKS QUITE A BIT
SHORTER THAN THE CURRENT EVENT. AS SEEN WITH THE CURRENT EVENT...THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT WILL IMPACT THE WIND FIELD BEHIND IT
AND ULTIMATELY THE PLACEMENT OF A LAKE BAND. SHOULD THE CURRENT
TRACK HOLD THEN IT DOES APPEAR THAT SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A WESTWARD MOVING BAND THURSDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST
SOME IMPACT POSSIBLE IN THE CWA. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS GIVEN WHAT
NEEDS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THAT TIME AND THE RECENT DIFFICULTY OF
GUIDANCE IN HANDLING OF SURFACE LOW TRACKS. OTHERWISE...BRISK NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE ARCTIC AIR
AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND OF 5 TO 10 BELOW
THURSDAY NIGHT TO CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO HEADLINE
CRITERIA...WITH WARNINGS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS HUDSON BAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET
UP BY FRIDAY MORNING COMBINING WITH WARMING ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS
IN THE LOW 20S. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THANKS TO THE ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
WITH THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. SEVERAL
MORE CLIPPERS LOOK ON TRACK STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOKING POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS.
* PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE.
* COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...AND WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VIS AND
CONTAMINATE PLOWED SURFACES.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS SET TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THE
SNOW COULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT SETS
UP IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST TIME FOR IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS
THIS WELL HANDLED...SO I DID NOT STRAY FROM THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE BETTER SNOWFALL. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS AND A HOUR OR SO SOONER AT KRFD.
ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KT FOR A PERIOD.
THESE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF
BLSN...EVEN AFTER THE SNOW STOPS FALLING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...BUT LIKELY NOT BELOW 5SM.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GRADUAL LOWERING VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/IMPACTS OF SNOW ON VIS/CIG
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW JUST OFF TO THE
EAST OF ORD/MDW.
FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WITH BLOWING
SNOW LIKELY...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR.
RATZER/KB
&&
.MARINE...
426 PM CST
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ISSUES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...GALES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE.
A FAIRLY BUSY FORECAST PERIOD STARTED OFF WITH A DIMINISHING TREND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BUILD SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THESE LIGHTER
SPEEDS WILL BE OBSERVED TONIGHT BUT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
WEST NORTHWEST. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES TO
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...BEFORE
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER AND GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1115 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 835 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014
High pressure centered over central Illinois early this evening
will shift off to our east overnight allowing a light southerly
wind to develop over the area. That combined with an increase in
clouds will keep temperatures from falling off much further this
evening, especially across the west. Latest surface observations
out to our west indicate some flurries occurring over parts of
central Iowa ahead of another quick moving upper level wave and
associated cold front, which is slated to push across our area
on Wednesday. That cold front will deliver another bone chilling
cold air mass with dangerously cold wind chills Wednesday night
through Thursday. Have made some changes to the early evening
temperature trends across the forecast area as well as adding a
slight chance for flurries well after midnight mainly over the
west. Should have the updated zone forecast out by 900 pm.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014
Main forecast challenge will be if cigs drop to MVFR Wednesday
afternoon and evening behind another strong surge of Arctic air.
Cloud bases continue to slowly lower late this evening and expect
this trend to continue overnight as another fast moving weather
system approaches our area from the northwest. Already seeing some
isolated flurries being reported over parts of central and eastern
Iowa in advance of the upper wave. Coverage of activity out to our
west is quite limited and based on the 00Z ILX sounding, the dry
atmosphere present in our area may keep the flurries from being much
of a factor thru most of this forecast period. A few models suggest
cigs may lower to MVFR after the cold frontal passage tomorrow
afternoon. Both the HRRR and RAP models indicate cig bases will lower
to between 3000-3500 feet by afternoon just behind the cold front.
We trended in that direction with the 00z forecast and see no strong
evidence at this point to make any significant changes.
Another concern will be with the gusty northwest winds that will
be dominant behind the Arctic cold front tomorrow afternoon thru
tomorrow night. Initially, surface winds will be light southerly
late tonight, and then south to southwest at 10 to 15 kts tomorrow
morning. Just after FROPA, expect northwest winds to prevail at 12
to 17 kts with Bufkit soundings indicating gusts in the 25 to 30 kt
range tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014
Models continue to reflect the persistance of the longwave trough
anchored over eastern North America. Occasional clippers bring light
precip and reinforcing cold air to the upstream side of the trough
in the northwest flow. Main differences in the models is the
amount of moisture available with each of these weak systems and
the amount of cold air surging into the area in the wake of each
system.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday
Quick northwest flow continues to produce a train of systems
across the midwest. High pressure ridge extending from southwest
Wisconsion into eastern Kansas this afternoon will move across
Illinois this evening. The light winds, mostly clear skies, and
cold airmass should enable temperatures to fall early this
evening. After midnight, southerly winds are expected to develop
on the backside of the ridge and ahead of the next weak clipper.
With the winds picking up, temperatures should rise. There may be
a brief period of time as the winds first start to increase where
wind chills may drop to near advisory levels, but this period
should be short-lived and a wind chill advisory will likely not be
needed.
The moisture-starved clipper system moves northeast of the
forecast area on Wednesday. a few flurries will be possible with
the best chances northeast of I-74. 12z NAM is the only model from
the latest suite to indicate chance of measurable so will keep
meantion as flurries. The system will trail a cold front through
the area during the afternoon reinforcing the arctic air mass in
place. Forecasted temperatures at 850 mb drop below 20C across
much of the forecast area by 12z Thursday. Cold temperatures (from
-7F GBG to +6C LWV) coupled with northwest winds of 10-20 mph should
once again drop wind chills below -15F across most of the forecast
area. It is likely that an advisory will be required. Highs will
only rise a few degrees from morning lows on Thursday as cold
northwest winds persist.
LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Another cold night Thursday Night can be expected though not quite
as cold as Wednesday Night as winds shift to the southwest ahead
of the next system. Temperatures should climb almost back to
normal for the latter half of January for Friday through Sunday...
before a strong cold front moves through Illinois early next week.
There is some range in model temperature solutions for the
weekend. On the edges of the envelope are the GEM raising 850 mb
temperatures to near 0C by 12z Sunday while the ECMWF is almost 20
degrees C colder. At this time will split the difference which is
slightly above the 12z MEX guidance. Colder air returns for Monday
and Tuesday with temperatures once again more consistent between
models and resulting in highs mostly in the teens and lows near
zero.
Although moisture remains rather limited, appears there may be a
chance of light snow Friday night with sligh chances through much
of the weekend with skies generally mostly cloudy. At this time it
appears that any snow amounts should be less than an inch.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
325 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS SMALLER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL
INDIANA...WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE DEVELOPING
IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTH HALF OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE
POPS SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT LIKELY POPS EARLY
THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WELL ABOVE MOS
POPS BUT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS FEEL THIS IS
PRUDENT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MOST
FORCING EXITS.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING THERE. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FLOWS
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET MOS/RAW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES.
THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...STARTING AT 100 AM NORTH AND 400 AM SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
A LOT TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING
TEMPERATURES...SNOWFALL...AND WINDS.
KEPT LOW POPS NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND PROVIDES DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS PLUS SOME UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH A FRONT WILL
RESULT IN LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY MORNING AND DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...AS CORE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. THIS
IS CLOSE TO MET MOS/MODEL BLEND. SAME AIRMASS KEEP LOWS BELOW ZERO
THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS. READINGS REBOUND
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE MANY AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH HALF. WINDS WILL LESSEN
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL BE MET ONCE AGAIN.
GIVEN THE ABOVE...EVEN THOUGH WIND CHILL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET FOR
A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DECIDED JUST TO KEEP IT SIMPLE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LET THE ADVISORY
EXPIRE THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE ANOTHER
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN THE SAME.
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THIS COULD
CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES WITH ANY SNOW THAT FALLS. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
FASCINATING TO WATCH MODEL LOOPS AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LOWS/ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE AREA
BETWEEN JAMES BAY/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
ABOUT 3000 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER OUR AREA.
THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/ASSOCIATED LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. THIS MAKES
SOME SENSE FOR US WITH THE SNOW COVER WE HAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO BE A LITTLE BIT
WARMER AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR
MASS ENDS THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGIONAL BLEND OF THE
MODELS DURING THE PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT ROTATES ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING MAKING IT
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
CHANGES MADE TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR
OCCURRING IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE
STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS
TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL
CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...DWM
AVIATION...DWM/NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS SMALLER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL
INDIANA...WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE DEVELOPING
IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTH HALF OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE
POPS SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT LIKELY POPS EARLY
THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WELL ABOVE MOS
POPS BUT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS FEEL THIS IS
PRUDENT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MOST
FORCING EXITS.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING THERE. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FLOWS
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET MOS/RAW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES.
THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...STARTING AT 100 AM NORTH AND 400 AM SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
A LOT TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING
TEMPERATURES...SNOWFALL...AND WINDS.
KEPT LOW POPS NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND PROVIDES DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS PLUS SOME UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH A FRONT WILL
RESULT IN LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY MORNING AND DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...AS CORE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. THIS
IS CLOSE TO MET MOS/MODEL BLEND. SAME AIRMASS KEEP LOWS BELOW ZERO
THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS. READINGS REBOUND
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE MANY AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH HALF. WINDS WILL LESSEN
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL BE MET ONCE AGAIN.
GIVEN THE ABOVE...EVEN THOUGH WIND CHILL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET FOR
A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DECIDED JUST TO KEEP IT SIMPLE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LET THE ADVISORY
EXPIRE THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE ANOTHER
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN THE SAME.
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THIS COULD
CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES WITH ANY SNOW THAT FALLS. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
FASCINATING TO WATCH MODEL LOOPS AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LOWS/ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE AREA
BETWEEN JAMES BAY/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
ABOUT 3000 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER OUR AREA.
THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/ASSOCIATED LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. THIS MAKES
SOME SENSE FOR US WITH THE SNOW COVER WE HAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO BE A LITTLE BIT
WARMER AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR
MASS ENDS THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGIONAL BLEND OF THE
MODELS DURING THE PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT ROTATES ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING MAKING IT
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 22/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE
STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS
TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL
CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...DWM
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
EASTERN CANADA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION PRODUCING
SEVERAL CHANCES OF SNOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 939 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD
REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SO UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. THUS MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
LATEST MODEL DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SNOW ARRIVING MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES COULD
REACH WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
THIS WELL SO MADE NO CHANGES TO SNOW CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. BUT THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE A DRY OUTLIER WITH THIS EVENINGS SYSTEM WHILE THE NAM
HAS TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD BE A HALF INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 18 BELOW
LATE TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS IN. THESE WIND CHILLS WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL EVEN BE COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING ALL AREAS BY THEN.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES YET...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTH THURSDAY
AS THE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE AREAS.
MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WETTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT
NOW APPEARS THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.
IN MOST CASES FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER FOR THURSDAY AND GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS AND
STRONG WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A
MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES THOSE PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
FASCINATING TO WATCH MODEL LOOPS AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LOWS/ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE AREA
BETWEEN JAMES BAY/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
ABOUT 3000 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER OUR AREA.
THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/ASSOCIATED LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. THIS MAKES
SOME SENSE FOR US WITH THE SNOW COVER WE HAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO BE A LITTLE BIT
WARMER AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR
MASS ENDS THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGIONAL BLEND OF THE
MODELS DURING THE PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT ROTATES ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING MAKING IT
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 22/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE
STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS
TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL
CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...DWM
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
EASTERN CANADA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION PRODUCING
SEVERAL CHANCES OF SNOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 939 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD
REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SO UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. THUS MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
LATEST MODEL DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SNOW ARRIVING MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES COULD
REACH WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
THIS WELL SO MADE NO CHANGES TO SNOW CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. BUT THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE A DRY OUTLIER WITH THIS EVENINGS SYSTEM WHILE THE NAM
HAS TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD BE A HALF INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 18 BELOW
LATE TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS IN. THESE WIND CHILLS WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL EVEN BE COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING ALL AREAS BY THEN.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES YET...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTH THURSDAY
AS THE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE AREAS.
MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WETTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT
NOW APPEARS THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.
IN MOST CASES FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER FOR THURSDAY AND GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS AND
STRONG WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A
MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES THOSE PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND A MEAN UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EACH WAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE TAIL END OF THE FIRST WAVE...RESULTING
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND WAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN FROM MANITOBA
AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ON
MONDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
WHEN CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST BECOMES LOW. AT THIS TIME...LATEST
INITIALIZATION IS NOT PULLING IN ANY PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT GFS
AND EURO ARE BOTH HINTING AT YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSING ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT INSERT POPS SINCE THIS IS
DAY 7...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER INITIALIZATIONS START
INTRODUCING PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ON BACK SIDE
OF MEAN UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 22/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE
STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS
TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL
CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...DWM
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
106 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST WED JAN 22 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A 505DM CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG PV HEIGHT ANOMALY IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGRESSING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING SOUTH
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
REGARDING PRECIP...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS/SATELLITE IN LINE WITH INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST CHANCES 03-09Z PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. I DID BUMP POPS UP A LITTLE TO CATEGORICAL (80)
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/UPSLOPE
WIND/CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED. MODELS STILL FAVORING GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND GENERALLY ONE HALF IN OR LESS THE FURTHER EAST IN THE
CWA. MODELS HAVE SPED UP EXIT OF PRECIP IN THE NORTH WITH VERY
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTH WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ARCTIC AIR MASS ADVECTS SOUTH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OF -15F OR LESS ARE ADVERTISED TO ADVECT INTO THE
NORTHEAST...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. IN FACT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS MY CURRENT FORECAST LOW OF -7F COULD BE OPTIMISTIC FOR
MCCOOK. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
REGARDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE
WILL SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 F RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DESPITE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. I
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WC ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA AND THE FIRST TWO
TIER OF OUR NW KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THESE
CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE CWA COULD STILL END UP BEING CLOSE
DEPENDING ON WIND/SKY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDDAY (POSSIBLY
EARLIER)...WITH A DRY/COLD DAY EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS 20-25F WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS SLOW TO PULL EAST. AT LEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT (10 MPH OR LESS) WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND BRIEF
COOL DOWNS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND ONE FRONT...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HOWEVER...COULD NOT REACH A CONSENSUS FOR A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ATTM. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME SO NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THIS PERIOD WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN WINDS INCREASE TO BREEZY/WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT RH VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR
NOW. MONDAY WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
COLD SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST WED JAN 22 2014
COLD FRONT STILL NORTH OF KMCK TERMINAL IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER 2500-4000FT STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED FURTHER
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND CANT RULE OUT BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK. AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AROUND
25KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. PRECIP FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH KMCK
LIKELY REMAINING SNOW FREE. MVFR CIG/VIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AT
KGLD WITH LIGHT SNOW. WHILE SREF DOES HINT AT IFR AT KGLD...THIS
WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOW BAND IN EASTERN
COLORADO...AND WOULD BE A TEMPORARY CONDITION OTHERWISE. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH BY
12Z...AND HAVE TAFS REFLECTING THIS TREND.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
320 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A DEEP
TROUGH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAINTAIN FRIGID WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
LOW PRES IS CONTINUING ITS TREK ACROSS THE NW ATLC AND IS FCST TO
PASS WELL S AND E OF NOVA SCOTIA. A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
STILL AFFECTING MAINLY THE COAST AND EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF
WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND RUC HAD THIS
SYSTEM HANDLED WELL W/PUSHING THE SNOW INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE
MARITIMES BY 00Z W/LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE,
THE DECISION HERE WAS TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST.
THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND WIND CHILLS. THE 12Z UA SHOWED COLD AIR SITTING BACK
IN QUEBEC READY TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. THINKING IS ONCE THE LOW
EXITS TO THE E, THAT COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT W/SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-15 MPH RIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THIS CLEARING IS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY W/CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO HIT 10 TO 20 BELOW AND THIS COUPLED W/THE
WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SOME DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
READINGS. NORTHWEST AND WESTERN MAINE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS REACH
WARNING CRITERIA(AOB -34F) BY 3-4 AM THURSDAY. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE
SOME CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. IF THIS DOES TAKE HOLD,
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP SOME, ALLOWING FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS TO STAY ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS
WHETHER AN UPGRADE TO A WIND CHILL WARNING IS NEEDED. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS SET UP FOR CENTRAL AND THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
INCLUDING BANGOR TO CALAIS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS WIND CHILLS COULD
HIT 20 BELOW W/TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 5 BELOW.
FOR THURSDAY, AN UPPER TROF IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE AT 700MBS IS SHOWN ESPECIALLY BY THE
GFS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK LIFT.
THE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG AND DECIDED TO STAY BELOW
15% FOR PRECIP CHANCES. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP ARCTIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BITTER COLD
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A FAST MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A NEW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PRESS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PULL STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW. NORMALLY WHEN A LOW LIFTS TO OUR
WEST BRINGING A STRONG SOUTH WIND, TEMPERATURES BECOME WARM ENOUGH
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. HOWEVER, THE ARCTIC AIR IS SO DEEP THAT
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL BUT
COASTAL LOCATIONS SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST IN EASTERN SPOTS WHERE A WEAK
SECONDARY REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST MAY FORM
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME ADDED SUPPORT TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. A FRESH SURGE OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY WITH
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY WILL QUICKLY SWING EAST
NORTHEAST APPROACHING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEW GFS IS NOW COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THIS SMALL LOW. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR, SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE FAVORED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BITTER COLD AND
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO THURSDAY. THE CAVEAT TO THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH AS KFVE AND KCAR AS
SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY W/THE NW FLOW. ATTM, DID NOT GO W/MVFR CIGS IN THE
NORTHERN TAFS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN IFR ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE IFR THROUGHOUT THE AREA IN
LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE GALE
WARNING OUT THROUGH 11 PM AS WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. 44027 ALREADY CLOSING IN ON 40 KT GUSTS PER THE 2 PM
OB. WAVE HEIGHTS ALSO NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THE LATEST
TRENDS SHOWED HIGHER SEAS THAN WHAT WAS BEING FCST. THE SWAN
GUIDANCE CAUGHT ON TO THE HIGHER SEAS OF 7-8 FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER ON AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY. THE GALE WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE
TRANSITIONED TO A SCA BY THE LATE EVENING FCST CYCLE.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR STRONG SOUTH
WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. A GALE MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. AN
SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003-004-
010.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1250 PM UPDATE...NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS READINGS ARE
STILL RUNNING BELOW 0F. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION,
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. THEREFORE,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WILL BE LUCKY TO
CLIP 0F WHILE IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION, STAYED W/THE
SINGLE NUMBERS ATTM.
ON THE PRECIP END, SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES AND SNOWFALL/QPF
AMOUNTS PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE 15Z RUC WAS DOING WELL
W/SHOWING THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING OVER EXTREME EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SOME REPORTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN WASHINGTON
COUNTY, OTHERWISE, A DUSTING. A NEW FCST PACKAGE WAS SHIPPED OUT
TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS
TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING;
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE. THE WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN
DOWNEAST MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE 0 TO 10 ABOVE WITH
THE IMMEDIATE COAST JUST A BIT WARMER.
FOR TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING, SO THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE COLD AND DRY UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUITE AS MUCH
AS THEY HAVE EARLY THIS MORNING, SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CONTD VERY COLD XPCTD THU THRU FRI AS WEAK S/WVS ALF MOVG W TO E
ACROSS THE REGION BRING OCNL CLDNSS AND PERHAPS FLURRIES/ICE CRYSTALS
SPCLY ACROSS THE NR HLF OF THE FA. AN W TO E ORIENTATED SFC RIDGE
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW VLY DECOUPLING FOR MID TO LATE
THU NGT...BUT THE AMOUNT AND THICKNESS OF LOW CLDNSS WILL MAKE IT
VERY DIFFICULT TO GAMBLE WITH BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE LOWS WEIGHTED
A LITTLE TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE TO HIGHLIGHT SOMEWHAT COLDER OVRNGT
LOWS IN PROTECTED VLYS. OTHERWISE...LEANED MORE TOWARD CONSOLIDATED
GUIDANCE FOR DYTM HI TEMPS FOR THU AND FRI AFTN WHICH HAS SHOWN
SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OVR MOST SINGLE AND OTHER BLENDED GUIDANCE
IN A COLD REGIME SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
AFT A FAIR CONDITIONS FRI EVE...CLDS INCREASE OVRNGT FRI WITH A
CHC OF OVRRNG LGT SNFL SPCLY OVR WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY
ERLY SAT MORN AS A MDTLY STRONG S/WV APCHS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LGT OVRRNG SNFL WILL CONT TO OVRSPRD THE REST OF THE FA SAT MORN
AS A S/WV FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS APCHS AND THEN TAKES A NEGATIVE
TILT SAT NGT AS IT CROSSES THE FA. WE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
ALL OF THE FA SAT AFTN...THEN DECREASE TO CHC SN SHWRS SAT NGT AS
A MID LVL DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE FA...GIVEN THAT THE MAIN SFC
LOW ACTUALLY TRACKS NE THRU ERN QB JUST W OF THE ST LAWRENCE VLY
WITH A WEAK TRIPLE POINT OCCLUSION LOW TRACKING OVR NE ME. WITH
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN ENTRAINING ATLC MOISTURE...EQUIV QPF AND SNFL
LOOK RELATIVELY LGT ATTM...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT LCLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALG THE ERN ME/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER JUST AS DEEPER ATLC
MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ALSO...A MDTLY STRONG
LLVL JET MAY BRING GUSTY S/SW SFC WINDS AND MILD ENOUGH TEMPS ALG
THE DOWNEAST COAST FOR SN TO MIX WITH RN ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
LATER SAT AFTN INTO ERLY SAT EVE BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS LATER
SAT NGT.
AFT A AN INITIAL WEAK FALL IN TEMPS BEHIND A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT
ACROSS THE FA WED LATE EVE...TEMPS WILL SHARPLY FALL BEHIND A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SN SHWRS...SPCLY ACROSS THE N. GIVEN THE PRISTINENESS
OF THE AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL NOT LIKELY RECOVER MUCH DURING THE
DAY SUN...AND IN REALITY MAY A CONTINUE A SLOW FALL THRU THE DAY
UNDER BRISK WRLY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER MSLY FAIR
SKIES SUN EVE...WITH INCREASING HI/MID CLDNSS SPCLY ACROSS THE
SRN HLF OF THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE
REGION. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS ANOTHER S/WV...THIS TM
FROM THE OH VLY RESULTING IN SFC LOW PRES FROM THE MID ATLC STATES
INTO THE GULF OF ME. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO MAY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SN...SPCLY TO THE SE HLF OF THE FA MON INTO MON EVE
WHERE WE WENT WITH LOW LIKELY POPS (AND LESSER CHC POPS FURTHER NW)
BEFORE TAPERING TO SCT SN SHWRS LATE MON NGT. GIVEN THIS TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW...THIS EVENT WOULD BE COLDER THAN THE SAT EVENT WITH
POTENTIALLY HIGHER SN RATIOS PERHAPS RESULTING IN WNTR HDLNS...
FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED VERY COLD...BUT MSLY FAIR CONDITIONS ON TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z IN LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW MOVES TO THE EAST.
SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU INTO FRI...WITH MVFR
CLGS POSSIBLE ATTMS OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AND THU NGT. CONDITIONS
LOWER TO MVFR FRI NGT AND TO IFR SAT IN LOW CLDNSS AND FALLING
SNFL. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE SAT NGT TO MVFR IN REMAINING SN
SHWRS AND TO VFR ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY, LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT INTO THIS EVENING. THE
GALE WARNING THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY SCA CONDITIONS OR LESS THU AND FRI...
WITH GALE FORCE SRLY WINDS POSSIBLE SAT AHEAD OF LOW PRES AND A
COLD FRONT...THEN GALE FORCE WRLY WINDS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON SUN. WENT WITH A BLEND OF 00Z WW3 WITH SWAN NAM/GFS
WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS/
WIND GUSTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ002-
005-006-010.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
003-004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
424 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM
AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER
THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE
THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS
BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST
OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER
CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL.
HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN
AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA
THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD
MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN
ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL
EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING
INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC
TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.
SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
NAM SHOWS A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF 12Z THU. UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES OUT OF THE NORTH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE 12Z FRI AND FRI NIGHT. COUPLE
DIFFERENT CLIPPER SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA WITH ONE LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI AND ANOTHER FOR FRI NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE
ON FRI MORNING AND WENT LIKELY POPS OVER THE CWA THEN.
OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AND
PERSISTENCE LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
OVER MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SAT.
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH VERY COLD AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ALSO
MEAN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIKELY
POPS IN NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS. WENT WITH COLDER CONSALL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED AS ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WERE TOO
WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS FCST
PERIOD WILL BRING -SN TO THE AREA. -SN HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT
KIWD/KCMX. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL
LIKELY MAKE FOR PREVAILING IFR VIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AT
KIWD/KCMX...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM. SOME PERIODS
OF MVFR WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS WELL. AT KSAW...SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW
INITIALLY SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT N
AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX...ESPECIALLY
AT KCMX. COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLSN WILL RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AND
PROBABLY A PERIOD OF VLIFR AT KCMX LATE AFTN/EVENING WHEN CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS NOT TYPICALLY THE FAVORED DIRECTION FOR VERY LOW VIS AT KCMX...
BUT GIVEN EXPECTED WIND STRENGTH...LIFR/VLIFR APPEAR LIKELY. WITH
WINDS/SNOW NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
IFR THERE...BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE. AT KSAW...
CONDITIONS WON`T DETERIORATE BLO IFR UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH WILL
PLACE A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING...DURING WHICH IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
AND PASS A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 7
AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM
EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1153 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM
AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER
THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE
THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS
BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST
OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER
CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL.
HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN
AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA
THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD
MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN
ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL
EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING
INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC
TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.
SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE
OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER
REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING
ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES.
THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI
THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY
SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY.
WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/.
AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF
ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING
THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF
BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC.
WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT
TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO
-12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF
COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK
OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW
LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF
THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL
GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND
10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES
OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS FCST
PERIOD WILL BRING -SN TO THE AREA. -SN HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT
KIWD/KCMX. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL
LIKELY MAKE FOR PREVAILING IFR VIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AT
KIWD/KCMX...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM. SOME PERIODS
OF MVFR WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS WELL. AT KSAW...SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW
INITIALLY SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT N
AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX...ESPECIALLY
AT KCMX. COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLSN WILL RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AND
PROBABLY A PERIOD OF VLIFR AT KCMX LATE AFTN/EVENING WHEN CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS NOT TYPICALLY THE FAVORED DIRECTION FOR VERY LOW VIS AT KCMX...
BUT GIVEN EXPECTED WIND STRENGTH...LIFR/VLIFR APPEAR LIKELY. WITH
WINDS/SNOW NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
IFR THERE...BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE. AT KSAW...
CONDITIONS WON`T DETERIORATE BLO IFR UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH WILL
PLACE A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING...DURING WHICH IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
AND PASS A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LSZ249-250-264>266.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1126 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
INCREASED WIND/GUSTS OVER SWRN CWA IN AREA OF FCST HRRR MAXIMUM
TODAY. ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN SAME GENERAL VICINITY. BIG
QUESTION REMAINS AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
CONSIDERING RECENT INCREASE IN ICE COVERAGE. RECENTLY EXPANDED AREA
OF ICE COVERAGE HAS APPROXIMATE THICKNESS LESS THAN 4 INCHES
ACCORDING TO ENV CAN ICE SERVICE CHART. WITH OPEN AREA ALONG
NSHORE AND INCREASING NW WINDS SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE
OPENINGS AND CREATE ADDITIONAL FISSURES IN EXISTING ICE COVER. IN
THEORY THIS WILL INCREASE PROBABILITY OF LATENT HEAT CONTRIBUTION.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE TO CU FIELD
STRETCHING FROM CTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NRN BAYFIELD
COUNTY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING JUST NORTH
OF THE ARROWHEAD IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH
DAKOTA...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH
WINDS. AS OF 09Z...THIS FRONT WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED
WEST. AHEAD OF IT THERE ARE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
WISCONSIN WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW MOVED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING
IN LIGHT BANDS AND TEMPORARILY LOWERED VISIBILITIES. LITTLE...IF
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
TODAY THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST...DRAGGING
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT A STRONG ISALLOBARIC RISE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...AND BETWEEN THAT AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLOW
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AT TIMES AND FOR CERTAIN AREAS TO NEAR 30
MPH. THIS IS GOING TO TAKE THE FRESH SNOW THAT WE GOT OVERNIGHT AND
REALLY BLOW IT AROUND...AND EXPOSED AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SINCE WE
ONLY GOT AN INCH LAST NIGHT...AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SINCE THE
RECENT FREEZING RAIN EVENT THE IMPRESSIVE SNOW PACK WE HAVE IS NOT
GOING TO ALL BLOW AWAY. IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WE
ALREADY HAVE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE DELAYED START TIME OF ADVISORY TO 00Z
THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WE
MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO A WIND CHILL WARNING
WITH VALUES PUSHING 40 BELOW LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE MENTIONING THIS
CONCERN IN BOTH WSW AND HWO THIS MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHEN WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT...FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AN AMAZING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. THE ONE ISSUE
THAT MAKES THIS EVENT CONDITIONAL IS THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE
SUPERIOR. MONDAY THERE WERE STILL LARGE ICE FREE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE OPEN WATERS AREAS. HOWEVER... MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY A LOT MORE ICE HAS FORMED...AND THE LAKE IS NEARLY 90
PERCENT COMPLETELY ICE COVERED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
SOME OPEN AREAS REMAIN...BUT IT IS A LARGE QUESTION MARK AS TO
WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. SO...WE ARE EITHER GOING TO GET LITTLE
IF ANY SNOW...OR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 6 PLUS INCHES OVER THE SOUTH
SHORE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
THE SOUTH SHORE COUNTIES OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT IN THE PUBLIC
PRODUCT...AS WELL AS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE IF THE SNOW BANDS ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND GO FROM THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AND
THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WILL PROBABLY BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE
NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. I LEANED ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY WEIGHTED TOO
MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY THIS FAR OUT.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND SNOWFALL CHANCES AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION CLOUDY. MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY GET AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING
THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL OFFER A VERY BRIEF WARMUP WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE POLAR
VORTEX DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN REACHES OF CANADA INTO THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION.
THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT DURING THIS
TIME. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST...BUT WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND TIMING.
THE GFS TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND
MOSTLY DRY. THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS THOUGH BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHLAND. ALSO...THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACROSS NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT CONSIDERING THE CURRENT HEAVY
ICE COVER OVER THE LAKE. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE ICE CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LAKE NEEDS ABOUT 80 PERCENT OR MORE ICE
COVER BEFORE THERE IS ANY SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
REGION...PROVIDING DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND BLSN OVER NE MN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND HYR...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BECOMING VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS
TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND BACK TO THE W/SW TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -1 -21 -3 -5 / 30 10 0 60
INL -4 -29 -1 -3 / 20 10 0 50
BRD 0 -22 -1 -5 / 10 10 0 20
HYR 4 -21 -1 -5 / 50 40 0 40
ASX 4 -15 -2 -3 / 80 90 10 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>037.
WI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ001-006-007.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ002>004-008-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1034 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
INCREASED WIND/GUSTS OVER SWRN CWA IN AREA OF FCST HRRR MAXIMUM
TODAY. ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN SAME GENERAL VICINITY. BIG
QUESTION REMAINS AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
CONSIDERING RECENT INCREASE IN ICE COVERAGE. RECENTLY EXPANDED AREA
OF ICE COVERAGE HAS APPROXIMATE THICKNESS LESS THAN 4 INCHES
ACCORDING TO ENV CAN ICE SERVICE CHART. WITH OPEN AREA ALONG
NSHORE AND INCREASING NW WINDS SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE
OPENINGS AND CREATE ADDITIONAL FISSURES IN EXISTING ICE COVER. IN
THEORY THIS WILL INCREASE PROBABILITY OF LATENT HEAT CONTRIBUTION.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE TO CU FIELD
STRETCHING FROM CTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NRN BAYFIELD
COUNTY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING JUST NORTH
OF THE ARROWHEAD IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH
DAKOTA...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH
WINDS. AS OF 09Z...THIS FRONT WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED
WEST. AHEAD OF IT THERE ARE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
WISCONSIN WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW MOVED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING
IN LIGHT BANDS AND TEMPORARILY LOWERED VISIBILITIES. LITTLE...IF
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
TODAY THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST...DRAGGING
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT A STRONG ISALLOBARIC RISE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...AND BETWEEN THAT AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLOW
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AT TIMES AND FOR CERTAIN AREAS TO NEAR 30
MPH. THIS IS GOING TO TAKE THE FRESH SNOW THAT WE GOT OVERNIGHT AND
REALLY BLOW IT AROUND...AND EXPOSED AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SINCE WE
ONLY GOT AN INCH LAST NIGHT...AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SINCE THE
RECENT FREEZING RAIN EVENT THE IMPRESSIVE SNOW PACK WE HAVE IS NOT
GOING TO ALL BLOW AWAY. IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WE
ALREADY HAVE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE DELAYED START TIME OF ADVISORY TO 00Z
THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WE
MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO A WIND CHILL WARNING
WITH VALUES PUSHING 40 BELOW LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE MENTIONING THIS
CONCERN IN BOTH WSW AND HWO THIS MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHEN WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT...FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AN AMAZING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. THE ONE ISSUE
THAT MAKES THIS EVENT CONDITIONAL IS THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE
SUPERIOR. MONDAY THERE WERE STILL LARGE ICE FREE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE OPEN WATERS AREAS. HOWEVER... MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY A LOT MORE ICE HAS FORMED...AND THE LAKE IS NEARLY 90
PERCENT COMPLETELY ICE COVERED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
SOME OPEN AREAS REMAIN...BUT IT IS A LARGE QUESTION MARK AS TO
WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. SO...WE ARE EITHER GOING TO GET LITTLE
IF ANY SNOW...OR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 6 PLUS INCHES OVER THE SOUTH
SHORE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
THE SOUTH SHORE COUNTIES OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT IN THE PUBLIC
PRODUCT...AS WELL AS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE IF THE SNOW BANDS ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND GO FROM THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AND
THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WILL PROBABLY BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE
NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. I LEANED ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY WEIGHTED TOO
MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY THIS FAR OUT.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND SNOWFALL CHANCES AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION CLOUDY. MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY GET AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING
THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL OFFER A VERY BRIEF WARMUP WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE POLAR
VORTEX DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN REACHES OF CANADA INTO THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION.
THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT DURING THIS
TIME. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST...BUT WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND TIMING.
THE GFS TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND
MOSTLY DRY. THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS THOUGH BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHLAND. ALSO...THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACROSS NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT CONSIDERING THE CURRENT HEAVY
ICE COVER OVER THE LAKE. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE ICE CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LAKE NEEDS ABOUT 80 PERCENT OR MORE ICE
COVER BEFORE THERE IS ANY SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
REGION...PROVIDING DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DUE TO -SN AND BLSN IS EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN. STRONG AND GUSTY NNW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME GRADUAL
CLEARING/SCATTERING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WEAKENING
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -1 -21 -2 -5 / 30 10 0 60
INL -4 -29 0 -3 / 20 10 0 50
BRD 0 -22 -1 -5 / 10 10 0 20
HYR 4 -21 -1 -5 / 50 40 0 40
ASX 4 -15 0 -3 / 90 90 20 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>037.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ038.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SYNOPSIS...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE SERN
STATES. UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...SECONDARY SHORT WAVES WERE NOTED
ACROSS SRN UTAH AND SRN COLORADO. RIDGING EXTENDED FROM OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS INTO THE YUKON AND EASTERN ALASKA. DECENT HT
RISES WERE NOTED OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF STATES FROM MN
WEST TO IDAHO. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DISTURBANCE OVER SRN COLORADO...CONTINUED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO THIS MORNING...AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WIDE SWATH OF SNOW FROM THE SWRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SWRN PORTIONS OF DUNDY COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 3 PM CST RANGED FROM 19 AT BROKEN BOW...TO 25 AT
OGALLALA...THEDFORD AND VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
A WARM FRONT...LOCATED BETWEEN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK
SOUTH TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM OVER 15 DEGREES BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY
AND 12Z FRIDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO STAY UP BETWEEN 10KTS AND 15KTS FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
THE WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...LOOKING AT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OCCURRING AROUND MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOWS LOOK TO RANGE
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES...YET EXPECTING TEMPERATURES AT 12Z
ROUGHLY FROM 15 TO 30 DEGREES.
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY ARE THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AND
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THAT
TOPIC. IN TERMS OF HIGHS...THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES
ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GFS HAS TEMPERATURES IN SW NEBRASKA UP
NEAR 8C WHILE THE NAM HAS ABOUT 4-5C. IN TURN...STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
HAS QUITE THE RANGE...FROM 53F TO 62F AT KLBF. THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR GUIDANCE TO BE TOO COOL MOST INSTANCES...SO FELT LIKE THE 52
FROM THE MET WAS TOO COOL...YET THERE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND DON/T
EXPECT MIXING TO 700MB WHICH WOULD BE NEEDED FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE
60S. THIS TREND WAS SIMILAR ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S AREA WIDE.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. WITH MIXING EXPECTED BETWEEN 850MB AND
800MB...WINDS AT THOSE LEVELS WILL BE 40 TO 45 KTS. THE FORECAST
WILL PUT SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE UPPER 20S WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WHICH IS JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. DID CONTEMPLATE ADDING
BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST FOR WHAT HAS BECOME THE FAVORED AREA
FOR IT...ROUGHLY FROM LEWELLEN TO HAYES CENTER AS DID GET THIS TO
OCCUR THE OTHER DAY WITH WINDS NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY YET ON THE WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT
AT THIS POINT AND NEXT SHIFT CAN PUT IT IN IF THE STRONGER WINDS
LOOK MORE LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE THIS WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...STALLING FROM
AROUND VALENTINE TO BROKEN BOW BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
LIMITED THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. ATTM...LIFT IN THE
MID LAYERS IS RATHER LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20 PERCENT
FOR NOW...AND HAVE CONFINED THEM ALONG THE SD/NEBR BORDER...WHERE
THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS DEEPEST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD IN
THE EAST AND CENTRAL UNDERNEATH THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ELSEWHERE...LOW TEMPS WILL BE ELEVATED BY PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE COLD PRONE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S.
ON SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK EAST BY LATE MORNING. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
WEST OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MOST THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE
FRONT MAY NOT PUSH THROUGH HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH THIS MORNINGS
RUNS...TRENDED HIGH TEMPS DOWNWARD IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MIXED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...SO A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA.
SUNDAY...ON SUNDAY A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY MORNING...TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO HIGHS
SUNDAY...AND THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS HAVE DEMONSTRATED SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS MORNINGS RUNS. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...AND THUS IS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER TEMPS
SUNDAY...WHILE THE SLOWER GFS SOLN IS WARMER. REGARDLESS OF MODEL
SOLN...LOCATIONS OVER NRN NEBRASKA...WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING
WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...AM
ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDOWN. INHERITED FCST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL
AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FCST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM -22C IN THE NORTHEAST TO -10 IN THE SOUTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL LEAD TO DECENT NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL HIT THIS IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILLS
AT...OR NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IS DECENT. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MODIFYING SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED WITH A POSSIBLE PATTERN SHIFT NEXT
WEEKEND AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
980 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN HUDSON BAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO SRN HUDSON BAY AND DEEPEN TO AROUND 975 MB BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL ROCKIES TO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA FRIDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 30025G35KT FRIDAY. THE
FCST AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR STRONGER WINDS PERHAPS REACHING
30030G40KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NRN NEB.
THE RAP MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE NAM AND GEM REG MODELS
ALSO SUGGEST LOCAL IFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY TO RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FRIDAY AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TEENS RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT IN AREAS SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM CRESCENT LAKE NWR TO OGALLALA TO CURTIS...PORTIONS OF
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 204/210/219. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO THE LOW TEENS WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THEM. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL INSTEAD SEE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 20 TO 25
PERCENT. EITHER WAY...A DAY TO PAY ATTENTION TO FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF HUMIDITY AND AS IT LOOKS
LIKE A SMALL PORTION OF THE DISTRICTS MAY REACH THESE LEVELS
ANYWAY...DID NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1141 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND
CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL
SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS
THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON
TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A
BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT.
GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST
A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR
SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER
IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE
COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN
OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH
THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE
FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER
QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS.
ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE
AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE
PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF
WAA/CAA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH WINDS. A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH
TODAY...AND WHILE IT IS CURRENTLY STILL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA...WONT BE TOO MUCH LONGER BEFORE IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS FRONT IS USHERING IN GUSTY WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND GUSTS OF 35 TO
40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAPER OFF...BUT ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WONT BE UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING. WONT BE SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...REMAINING
N/NWRLY. SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL...AND CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FLAKES AT THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT CEILINGS VFR AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH...WHICH IS AT TIMES DIPPING IN TO THE UPPER END OF MVFR
CRITERIA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ072-073-082-083.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
638 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND
CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL
SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS
THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON
TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A
BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT.
GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST
A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR
SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER
IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE
COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN
OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH
THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE
FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER
QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS.
ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE
AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE
PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF
WAA/CAA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE
TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ072-073-082-083.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
558 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND
CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL
SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS
THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON
TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A
BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT.
GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST
A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR
SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER
IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE
COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN
OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH
THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE
FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER
QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS.
ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE
AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE
PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF
WAA/CAA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE
TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ072-073-082-083.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
517 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND
CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL
SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS
THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON
TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A
BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT.
GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST
A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR
SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER
IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE
COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN
OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH
THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE
FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER
QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS.
ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE
AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE
PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF
WAA/CAA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE
TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS UNTIL 15Z
OR 16Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ072-073-082-083.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO DECREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN CWA. ALSO
INCREASED DEWPOINTS CENTRAL AND EAST AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS IN
THE WESTERN CWA. INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS WE
LIE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF STRATUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH UPPER AIR PROFILER
AND SATELLITE DATA NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN. THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A RESULT OF
CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND TROUGHING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE GULF. SKY COVER HAS BEEN
VARIABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT
THE CWA CURRENTLY SEEING A BIT OF A BREAK AND GETTING A BETTER
SHOT OF SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SURFACE...A NOTABLE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS SET UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO WRN
KS...JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM NRN TX INTO MN/WI. THIS HAS LEFT THE CWA WITH SOUTH...TO
GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AS THAT FRONT HAS INCHED
CLOSER...AND HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE. WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL SEE A RISE IN
TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF THE WINDS CAN GET SWITCHED TO THE
WEST SOON...OTHERWISE TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN
ON THE COOL SIDE...AT 3PM SITTING IN THE MID 20S IN THE EAST TO
MID 30S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT
WITH THEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA...SO WILL
THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. NOT TO SAY THERE WILL BE NO
IMPACT...THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE WEST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY MIDDAY MOST/IF NOT ALL OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW /MAINLY THE AFTERNOON/...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE SWINGING SOUTH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT THE
HIGHEST...WITH A FEW MODELS TRYING TO SHOW THE CHANCE FOR PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT PRECIP SLIDING INTO THE AREA...BUT WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PRETTY DRY...PROB WOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
FLURRIES IF ANYTHING DID FALL. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST
INCLUDES BUMPING UP WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS /ESP THE
AFTERNOON/...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES AFFECTING THE
CWA...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADV
SPEEDS. ALSO TRENDED BACK HIGHS FOR TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES WITH
THAT NEXT BATCH OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN...WITH FORECAST CURRENTLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 30S IN THE SW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
ALOFT: DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE AND THE TROF OVER THE E
WILL AMPLIFY WED-THU. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...BUT THE INCREASED AMPLITUDE WILL RESULT IN BOUTS OF
CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS.
HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BLOSSOM TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FRI AND REMAIN ABOVE 2 SD THRU MON.
THIS WILL FORCE MORE BITTER COLD INTO THE ERN USA AND THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS COLD.
KEEP IN MIND THAT BITTER COLD IN NW FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DOESNT
LAST LONG HERE. WE NEED A TROF IN THE W AND THAT MAY BE COMING
IN EARLY FEB. THRU THE END OF THE MONTH THIS MEANS WILD TEMP
SWINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH DECIDEDLY MORE BRUSHES WITH
WINTERS COLD. SEE THE PATTERN SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON WHAT MAY
BE COMING.
AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE BENIGN TAIL ENDS OF TROFS ARE FCST TO
MOVE THRU 12AM-12PM THU...12AM-12PM FRI. UNCERTAINTY ON SUN-MON
BUT SOMETHING WILL BE APPROACHING. ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT WE WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET STREAKS FOR PRODUCING ANY
WX.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES /NEARLY 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL SLIP S
THRU THE PLAINS...CROSSING THE FCST AREA THU. DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND A SURFACE TROF WILL FOLLOW FRI IN THE "WARM" SECTOR OF VERY
DEEP LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE IN FRI NIGHT...BUT THE CORE OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR
WILL MISS TO THE E. HIGH PRES RAPIDLY DARTS THRU THE REGION SAT. A
CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO MT LATE...WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
ACROSS NEB/KS. THIS CLIPPER WILL RACE ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR TOP
BY DAYBREAK SUN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY SUN-
TUE...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROF
ALOFT AND THIS COLD SURGE. THE GEM AND EC ARE SHARPER AND MORE
POTENT THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENT 1-DAY
BLAST OF ARCTIC COLD. THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD? HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW WITH MODERATION IN TEMPS TUE-WED.
HAZARDS: A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE 10PM WED-11AM THU
FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WIND
EVENT FRI. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.
DAILY DETAILS...
WED NIGHT: COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/ CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.
LOW TEMPS WERE ACTUALLY INCREASED 4-7F DUE TO WINDS AND CLOUDS
WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART OVER THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO BE DOWN TO -25F NE OF THE
TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BEFORE MIDNIGHT
VIA THE BURST OF CAA. WINDS WILL DECREASE THEREAFTER...BUT THAT
IS WHEN TEMPS WILL COMPENSATE.
THU: A STEADY WIND OF 10-15 MPH IS EXPECTED AT DAWN. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE SUB-ZERO EVERYWHERE...BUT COLDEST FROM THE TRI-CITIES N
AND E.
ANY LEFTOVER HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SRN SKY DEPARTS LEAVING BRILLIANT
SUNSHINE...BUT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 3-4F USING
A 50-50 BLEND OF GFS AND GEM 2M TEMPS...WHICH NOW PUTS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS.
THU NIGHT: INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. RISING TEMPS APPEAR
PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A NON- TRADITIONAL TEMP CURVE IS IN THE
FCST.
FRI: MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. BY
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. THAT
COMPLICATES TEMPS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 49-59F...WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST.
SAT: DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS...TEMPS COULD BE WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATING. BELIEVE YOU CAN PROBABLY SAFELY ADD ANOTHER 5F TO THE
FCST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN 50-60F...WARMEST SW FROM BEAVER CITY TO
PLAINVILLE KS.
SUN: FAIR AND DRY. WE FINISH UP ANOTHER 3-DAY STRETCH OF MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH.
MON-TUE: COLDER THEN TEMPS PLUNGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
PATTERN: ENSEMBLES FROM MULTIPLE CENTERS PERSIST IN INDICATING A
MAJOR SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVES COME FEB. THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE IS
FCST TO BREAK DOWN WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PACIFIC.
THIS TELECONNECTS TO A WRN USA TROF. THE BIAS CORRECTED GEFS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PNA PATTERN TURNING NEGATIVE. THIS
SUGGESTS WE MAY NOT ESCAPE THIS WINTER WITHOUT SUFFERING THE BRUNT
OF A BLIZZARD OR TWO. OVERALL DEC-JAN HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL.
THAT COULD CHANGE.
ARCTIC COLD POURING INTO A WRN USA TROF MEANS THAT LONGER
STRETCHES OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPS BECOME MORE LIKELY. WE ARE ALSO
SEEING SIGNS OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBILITIES AROUND FEB
2-3...WHICH WOULD DELIVER SERIOUS WINTER COLD AND "POSSIBLY" SNOW.
ALL THIS SAID...ARE THE ENSEMBLES CORRECT? THE POOL OF ANOMALOUSLY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS REMAINS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. HARD TO IGNORE
THE EFFECTS GIVEN THAT POOL HAS SUPPORTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 13 MONTHS! WE DID SEE A PATTERN
CHANGE FROM DEC93-JAN94 TO FEB DESPITE A NE PACIFIC WARM POOL.
SO IT CAN HAPPEN. IF IT DOES...BELIEVE WE HAVE SOME NASTY PERIODS
OF WINTER STILL IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE
TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS UNTIL 15Z
OR 16Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH UPPER AIR PROFILER
AND SATELLITE DATA NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN. THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A RESULT OF
CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND TROUGHING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE GULF. SKY COVER HAS BEEN
VARIABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT
THE CWA CURRENTLY SEEING A BIT OF A BREAK AND GETTING A BETTER
SHOT OF SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SURFACE...A NOTABLE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS SET UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO WRN
KS...JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM NRN TX INTO MN/WI. THIS HAS LEFT THE CWA WITH SOUTH...TO
GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AS THAT FRONT HAS INCHED
CLOSER...AND HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE. WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL SEE A RISE IN
TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF THE WINDS CAN GET SWITCHED TO THE
WEST SOON...OTHERWISE TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN
ON THE COOL SIDE...AT 3PM SITTING IN THE MID 20S IN THE EAST TO
MID 30S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT
WITH THEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA...SO WILL
THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. NOT TO SAY THERE WILL BE NO
IMPACT...THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE WEST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY MIDDAY MOST/IF NOT ALL OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW /MAINLY THE AFTERNOON/...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE SWINGING SOUTH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT THE
HIGHEST...WITH A FEW MODELS TRYING TO SHOW THE CHANCE FOR PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT PRECIP SLIDING INTO THE AREA...BUT WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PRETTY DRY...PROB WOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
FLURRIES IF ANYTHING DID FALL. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST
INCLUDES BUMPING UP WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS /ESP THE
AFTERNOON/...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES AFFECTING THE
CWA...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADV
SPEEDS. ALSO TRENDED BACK HIGHS FOR TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES WITH
THAT NEXT BATCH OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN...WITH FORECAST CURRENTLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 30S IN THE SW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
ALOFT: DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE AND THE TROF OVER THE E
WILL AMPLIFY WED-THU. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...BUT THE INCREASED AMPLITUDE WILL RESULT IN BOUTS OF
CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS.
HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BLOSSOM TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FRI AND REMAIN ABOVE 2 SD THRU MON.
THIS WILL FORCE MORE BITTER COLD INTO THE ERN USA AND THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS COLD.
KEEP IN MIND THAT BITTER COLD IN NW FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DOESNT
LAST LONG HERE. WE NEED A TROF IN THE W AND THAT MAY BE COMING
IN EARLY FEB. THRU THE END OF THE MONTH THIS MEANS WILD TEMP
SWINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH DECIDEDLY MORE BRUSHES WITH
WINTERS COLD. SEE THE PATTERN SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON WHAT MAY
BE COMING.
AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE BENIGN TAIL ENDS OF TROFS ARE FCST TO
MOVE THRU 12AM-12PM THU...12AM-12PM FRI. UNCERTAINTY ON SUN-MON
BUT SOMETHING WILL BE APPROACHING. ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT WE WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET STREAKS FOR PRODUCING ANY
WX.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES /NEARLY 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL SLIP S
THRU THE PLAINS...CROSSING THE FCST AREA THU. DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND A SURFACE TROF WILL FOLLOW FRI IN THE "WARM" SECTOR OF VERY
DEEP LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE IN FRI NIGHT...BUT THE CORE OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR
WILL MISS TO THE E. HIGH PRES RAPIDLY DARTS THRU THE REGION SAT. A
CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO MT LATE...WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
ACROSS NEB/KS. THIS CLIPPER WILL RACE ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR TOP
BY DAYBREAK SUN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY SUN-
TUE...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROF
ALOFT AND THIS COLD SURGE. THE GEM AND EC ARE SHARPER AND MORE
POTENT THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENT 1-DAY
BLAST OF ARCTIC COLD. THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD? HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW WITH MODERATION IN TEMPS TUE-WED.
HAZARDS: A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE 10PM WED-11AM THU
FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WIND
EVENT FRI. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.
DAILY DETAILS...
WED NIGHT: COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/ CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.
LOW TEMPS WERE ACTUALLY INCREASED 4-7F DUE TO WINDS AND CLOUDS
WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART OVER THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO BE DOWN TO -25F NE OF THE
TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BEFORE MIDNIGHT
VIA THE BURST OF CAA. WINDS WILL DECREASE THEREAFTER...BUT THAT
IS WHEN TEMPS WILL COMPENSATE.
THU: A STEADY WIND OF 10-15 MPH IS EXPECTED AT DAWN. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE SUB-ZERO EVERYWHERE...BUT COLDEST FROM THE TRI-CITIES N
AND E.
ANY LEFTOVER HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SRN SKY DEPARTS LEAVING BRILLIANT
SUNSHINE...BUT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 3-4F USING
A 50-50 BLEND OF GFS AND GEM 2M TEMPS...WHICH NOW PUTS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS.
THU NIGHT: INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. RISING TEMPS APPEAR
PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A NON- TRADITIONAL TEMP CURVE IS IN THE
FCST.
FRI: MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. BY
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. THAT
COMPLICATES TEMPS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 49-59F...WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST.
SAT: DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS...TEMPS COULD BE WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATING. BELIEVE YOU CAN PROBABLY SAFELY ADD ANOTHER 5F TO THE
FCST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN 50-60F...WARMEST SW FROM BEAVER CITY TO
PLAINVILLE KS.
SUN: FAIR AND DRY. WE FINISH UP ANOTHER 3-DAY STRETCH OF MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH.
MON-TUE: COLDER THEN TEMPS PLUNGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
PATTERN: ENSEMBLES FROM MULTIPLE CENTERS PERSIST IN INDICATING A
MAJOR SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVES COME FEB. THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE IS
FCST TO BREAK DOWN WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PACIFIC.
THIS TELECONNECTS TO A WRN USA TROF. THE BIAS CORRECTED GEFS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PNA PATTERN TURNING NEGATIVE. THIS
SUGGESTS WE MAY NOT ESCAPE THIS WINTER WITHOUT SUFFERING THE BRUNT
OF A BLIZZARD OR TWO. OVERALL DEC-JAN HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL.
THAT COULD CHANGE.
ARCTIC COLD POURING INTO A WRN USA TROF MEANS THAT LONGER
STRETCHES OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPS BECOME MORE LIKELY. WE ARE ALSO
SEEING SIGNS OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBILITIES AROUND FEB
2-3...WHICH WOULD DELIVER SERIOUS WINTER COLD AND "POSSIBLY" SNOW.
ALL THIS SAID...ARE THE ENSEMBLES CORRECT? THE POOL OF ANOMALOUSLY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS REMAINS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. HARD TO IGNORE
THE EFFECTS GIVEN THAT POOL HAS SUPPORTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 13 MONTHS! WE DID SEE A PATTERN
CHANGE FROM DEC93-JAN94 TO FEB DESPITE A NE PACIFIC WARM POOL.
SO IT CAN HAPPEN. IF IT DOES...BELIEVE WE HAVE SOME NASTY PERIODS
OF WINTER STILL IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE
TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS UNTIL 15Z
OR 16Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
641 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COLD AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER WEATHER THEN RETURNS BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 641 PM EST THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
OTHER THAN SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT T/TD DATA AND SKY COVER
TRENDS NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVING
IN OVERNIGHT COLD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS VERY THIN CIRRUS
LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND QUESTION IS WHAT
IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON OVERNIGHT RADIATIVE COOLING IN OTHERWISE
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH PREVAILING
DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION
LATE...BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE THAT HIGH LEVEL RH WILL TREND
LOWER AFTER ABOUT 06Z. COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...IT SHOULD
RESULT IN RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS...DON/T SEE A REASON TO STRAY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS AND TEMPS BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM -7F AT SPRINGFIELD TO
-20 TO -28F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NE KINGDOM. IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...GENERALLY LOOKING FOR -10 TO -20F. WIND CHILL
WILL NOT BE A PARTICULAR ISSUE WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5 MPH OR LESS.
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
A RECENTLY ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF COLD BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND S-SW
WINDS PICKING UP TO 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTN
FLURRY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH POPS 10-20 PERCENT...BUT
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. AIR MASS MODERATES
SLIGHTLY AS WELL WITH DEVELOPING S-SW FLOW...THOUGH IT WILL STILL
BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. STAYED ON THE HIGHER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW BASED ON PREVAILING S-SW FLOW AND AS A CARRY
OVER OF LOW MOS TEMP BIAS OBSERVED THIS AFTN. HIGHS GENERALLY
AROUND 10F EXCEPT MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR FAR NERN VT.
DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT
INDUCES A STRONGER SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/GEORGIAN BAY
VCNTY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASING P-GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPS LIKELY RISE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (INTO
THE TEENS) AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOULD SEE 15-25
MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. POPS INCREASE 40-70 PERCENT RANGE 06-12Z SATURDAY...HIGHEST
WEST. SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN SPOTS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WITH LOWEST AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SOME
SHADOWING EFFECTS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS NRN NY...INDUCING BROAD
SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
(PW VALUES ONLY 0.1-0.2")...SO TOTAL SNOWFALL AMTS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 1-3" RANGE. CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTN WITH
GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES. MAY SEE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO LIGHT
SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY...BUT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT ADVISORIES BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. SWD
EXTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD THRU THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND SHIFT AND FALLING TEMPS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN/CENTRAL GREENS BEFORE AIR MASS DRIES OUT. AN
ADDITION INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF. TEMPS WILL FALL STEADILY SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO AROUND -25C ACROSS NRN NY BY 06Z SUNDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM 0 TO +5F ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VT...BUT 0 TO -10F ACROSS
NRN NY AND FAR NRN VT WITH THIS NEXT ARCTIC SURGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 221 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING INTO SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER COLD
MORNING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HRS...SHIFTING EAST OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON AS
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE GREAT LKS REGION. MDL DIFFERENCES AS
TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH LATEST GFS TAKING SYSTEM OVER THE
CWA AND THE LATEST ECMWF TAKING CLIPPER JUST TO OUR NORTH. GFS
SOLUTION WILL BRING BETTER CHANCE FOR -SW...BUT WILL OPT FOR A
SPLIT OF THE TWO MDL RUNS AND KEEP SYSTEM TRACKING OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. GFS IS FASTER CLRING PRECIP AS WELL DUE TO MORE OF A
WEST-EAST TRACK VERSUS A NE TRACK IN THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF LINGERING -SW ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM W/ HIR ELEV SEEING
BEST CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE -SW FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AFTNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...SFC RIDGE SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...KEEPING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA RE-ENFORCED
BY A COUPLE TROUGHS PASSING THRU THE GREAT LKS REGION FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME LIGHT -SW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE DACKS WITH SW FLOW
COMING OFF LK ONTARIO. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS AND OVERNGT LOWS AS EACH
SUCCESSIVE SYSTEM BRINGS DOWN A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF CD CANADIAN
AIR. MON NGT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLDEST WITH RIDGE
CRESTING OVER REGION BFR SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. TEMPS TO
RANGE HERE FROM -5F TO -15F BUT WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT FROM
EXITING WNW UPSLOPE CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR COND WITH SCT-BKN LOW/MID CLDS RANGING
FROM 4KFT TO 15KFT. SOME MVFR FG/VCSH FOR SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY. NNW
WINDS 5-10KTS BECM WSW 5-10KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY SSW
5-15KTS BY 18Z-20Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS
WITH EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED HZ/IC POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS/BTV BTWN
08Z-12Z FRIDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE WL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. ARCTIC BOUNDARY SWINGS ACRS
OUR TAF SITES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR LIKELY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SFC HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION...HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
FOLLOWING:
1/24
BTV -22F/1948
MSS -30F/1976
MPV -22F/2011
1V4 -34F/1907
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
629 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE
BRINGS A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. THE WARM UP WILL BE
BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT AND USHERS IN COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS VERY THIN CIRRUS LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AND QUESTION IS WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON OVERNIGHT
RADIATIVE COOLING IN OTHERWISE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR VERY COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE...BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE
THAT HIGH LEVEL RH WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ABOUT 06Z. COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...IT SHOULD RESULT IN RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS...DON/T
SEE A REASON TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS AND TEMPS BASICALLY
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM
-7F AT SPRINGFIELD TO -20 TO -28F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NE
KINGDOM. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...GENERALLY LOOKING FOR -10 TO
-20F. WIND CHILL WILL NOT BE A PARTICULAR ISSUE WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 5 MPH OR LESS. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT IN A RECENTLY ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF COLD BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND S-SW
WINDS PICKING UP TO 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTN
FLURRY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH POPS 10-20 PERCENT...BUT
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. AIR MASS MODERATES
SLIGHTLY AS WELL WITH DEVELOPING S-SW FLOW...THOUGH IT WILL STILL
BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. STAYED ON THE HIGHER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW BASED ON PREVAILING S-SW FLOW AND AS A CARRY
OVER OF LOW MOS TEMP BIAS OBSERVED THIS AFTN. HIGHS GENERALLY
AROUND 10F EXCEPT MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR FAR NERN VT.
DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT
INDUCES A STRONGER SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/GEORGIAN BAY
VCNTY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASING P-GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPS LIKELY RISE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (INTO
THE TEENS) AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOULD SEE 15-25
MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. POPS INCREASE 40-70 PERCENT RANGE 06-12Z SATURDAY...HIGHEST
WEST. SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN SPOTS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WITH LOWEST AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SOME
SHADOWING EFFECTS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS NRN NY...INDUCING BROAD
SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
(PW VALUES ONLY 0.1-0.2")...SO TOTAL SNOWFALL AMTS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 1-3" RANGE. CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTN WITH
GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES. MAY SEE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO LIGHT
SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY...BUT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT ADVISORIES BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. SWD
EXTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD THRU THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND SHIFT AND FALLING TEMPS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN/CENTRAL GREENS BEFORE AIR MASS DRIES OUT. AN
ADDITION INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF. TEMPS WILL FALL STEADILY SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO AROUND -25C ACROSS NRN NY BY 06Z SUNDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM 0 TO +5F ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VT...BUT 0 TO -10F ACROSS
NRN NY AND FAR NRN VT WITH THIS NEXT ARCTIC SURGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 221 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING INTO SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER COLD
MORNING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HRS...SHIFTING EAST OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON AS
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE GREAT LKS REGION. MDL DIFFERENCES AS
TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH LATEST GFS TAKING SYSTEM OVER THE
CWA AND THE LATEST ECMWF TAKING CLIPPER JUST TO OUR NORTH. GFS
SOLUTION WILL BRING BETTER CHANCE FOR -SW...BUT WILL OPT FOR A
SPLIT OF THE TWO MDL RUNS AND KEEP SYSTEM TRACKING OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. GFS IS FASTER CLRING PRECIP AS WELL DUE TO MORE OF A
WEST-EAST TRACK VERSUS A NE TRACK IN THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF LINGERING -SW ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM W/ HIR ELEV SEEING
BEST CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE -SW FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AFTNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...SFC RIDGE SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...KEEPING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA RE-ENFORCED
BY A COUPLE TROUGHS PASSING THRU THE GREAT LKS REGION FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME LIGHT -SW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE DACKS WITH SW FLOW
COMING OFF LK ONTARIO. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS AND OVERNGT LOWS AS EACH
SUCCESSIVE SYSTEM BRINGS DOWN A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF CD CANADIAN
AIR. MON NGT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLDEST WITH RIDGE
CRESTING OVER REGION BFR SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. TEMPS TO
RANGE HERE FROM -5F TO -15F BUT WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT FROM
EXITING WNW UPSLOPE CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR COND WITH SCT-BKN LOW/MID CLDS RANGING
FROM 4KFT TO 15KFT. SOME MVFR FG/VCSH FOR SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY. NNW
WINDS 5-10KTS BECM WSW 5-10KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY SSW
5-15KTS BY 18Z-20Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS
WITH EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED HZ/IC POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS/BTV BTWN
08Z-12Z FRIDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE WL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. ARCTIC BOUNDARY SWINGS ACRS
OUR TAF SITES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR LIKELY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SFC HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION...HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
FOLLOWING:
1/24
BTV -22F/1948
MSS -30F/1976
MPV -22F/2011
1V4 -34F/1907
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1207 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY
WHILE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM WED...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS TAIL OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGS THROUGH. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE LINGERING SHOWERS. AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THIS LATE MORNING...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW 10F IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WIND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE
DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL ALLOW WIND
CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WINDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN
BELOW THIS CRITERIA. SO WILL ALSO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO
EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TEENS
INLAND TO LOW 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY REINFORCEMENT OF THE DEEP EASTERN US TROF LEADING
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. MINIMAL
PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS GIVEN
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE W/NW DOMINATED FLOW ALOFT.
LOW LVL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT BUT STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS UPR 30S N TO LOWER 40S S.
A DRY COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD IN
THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRI MORNING. VERY COLD AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION FRI AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH MAINLY UPPER
20S.
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON
AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 45-50F DURING THE WEEKEND. SAT LOOKS
RATHER WINDY AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS
ESPCLY NEAR THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S/LOW
50S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONT. HIGHS NEXT
TUESDAY FALL BACK AGAIN INTO THE 30S AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SPREADS S INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1206 PM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE HAVE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME CONTINUED SNOW AND LOW CIGS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.
WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AM EXPECTING SKIES
TO CLEAR AREA WIDE BY MID AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IFR IN SOUTHERN TAFS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
DRY ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1002 AM WED...NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE HAVE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL SEE A SMALL
LOOSENING OF GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND IN THE TEENS IN SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET IN NORTHERN WATERS AND AROUND 6 FEET IN SOUTHERN
WATERS. WILL KEEP SCA GOING WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND WILL
GO FROM GALE TO SCA IN THOSE AREAS.
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 5-15 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE INLET.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...GENERALLY ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS OCCASIONAL REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGES LEAD
TO INCREASING WINDS/SEAS. BRIEF BREAK IN HIGHER WINDS/SEAS FIRST
PART OF THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WNW WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN START TO INCREASE LATE THU AS FRONT CROSSES...THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS LATER THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THESE NW
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 FT OVER THE OUTER NRN AND
CNTRL WTRS EARLY FRI. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATER FRI AND FRI
EVENING AS HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. W/SW WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER FRI NIGHT AND ESPCLY SAT AS DEEP LOW
CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE STRONG SW
WINDS SAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 11 FEET OVER THE OUTER CNTRL AND
SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 6 FT ALL WTRS SUN AS WINDS
DIMINISH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 22ND:
TEMP YEAR
CAPE HATTERAS 26 1970
MANTEO 25 1970
OCRACOKE 30 1970
NEW BERN 30 1970
WILLIAMSTON 31 1994
KINSTON 19 1985
GREENVILLE 27 1970
BAYBORO 29 1970
MOREHEAD CITY 31 1970
WASHINGTON 32 2011
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/CGG
CLIMATE...CQD/SEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1003 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY
WHILE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM WED...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS TAIL OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGS THROUGH. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE LINGERING SHOWERS. AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THIS LATE MORNING...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW 10F IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WIND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE
DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL ALLOW WIND
CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WINDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN
BELOW THIS CRITERIA. SO WILL ALSO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO
EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TEENS
INLAND TO LOW 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY REINFORCEMENT OF THE DEEP EASTERN US TROF LEADING
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. MINIMAL
PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS GIVEN
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE W/NW DOMINATED FLOW ALOFT.
LOW LVL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT BUT STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS UPR 30S N TO LOWER 40S S.
A DRY COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD IN
THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRI MORNING. VERY COLD AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION FRI AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH MAINLY UPPER
20S.
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON
AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 45-50F DURING THE WEEKEND. SAT LOOKS
RATHER WINDY AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS
ESPCLY NEAR THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S/LOW
50S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONT. HIGHS NEXT
TUESDAY FALL BACK AGAIN INTO THE 30S AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SPREADS S INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM WED...AREA OF STCU ADVECTING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AS WELL AS BRINGING
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
DRY ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1002 AM WED...NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE HAVE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL SEE A SMALL
LOOSENING OF GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND IN THE TEENS IN SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET IN NORTHERN WATERS AND AROUND 6 FEET IN SOUTHERN
WATERS. WILL KEEP SCA GOING WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND WILL
GO FROM GALE TO SCA IN THOSE AREAS.
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 5-15 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE INLET.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...GENERALLY ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS OCCASIONAL REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGES LEAD
TO INCREASING WINDS/SEAS. BRIEF BREAK IN HIGHER WINDS/SEAS FIRST
PART OF THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WNW WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN START TO INCREASE LATE THU AS FRONT CROSSES...THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS LATER THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THESE NW
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 FT OVER THE OUTER NRN AND
CNTRL WTRS EARLY FRI. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATER FRI AND FRI
EVENING AS HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. W/SW WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER FRI NIGHT AND ESPCLY SAT AS DEEP LOW
CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE STRONG SW
WINDS SAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 11 FEET OVER THE OUTER CNTRL AND
SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 6 FT ALL WTRS SUN AS WINDS
DIMINISH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 22ND:
TEMP YEAR
CAPE HATTERAS 26 1970
MANTEO 25 1970
OCRACOKE 30 1970
NEW BERN 30 1970
WILLIAMSTON 31 1994
KINSTON 19 1985
GREENVILLE 27 1970
BAYBORO 29 1970
MOREHEAD CITY 31 1970
WASHINGTON 32 2011
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/CGG
CLIMATE...CQD/SEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
658 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BLIZZARD HITTING IN FULL FORCE OVER THE AREA AS ARCTIC FRONT IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD WATERTOWN SD AND WILLMAR MN. FACEBOOK POSTS AND
OTHER REPORTS INDICATE WIDESPREAD ZERO VSBY IN MOST OF THE AREA
AND EVEN IN TOWN/CITIES VSBYS ONE QUARTER MILE. STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH PAST FEW HOURS. 925 MB WINDS ON RAP STILL HAVE
40 KTS IN THE NRN-CNTRL RRV THRU 15Z AND INTO THE SRN VALLEY INTO
18Z. SO EXPECT SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF THESE CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
WHOA WHAT A NIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT AND WIND PUSH NOW MOVING SOUTH
THRU THE CENTRAL RRV HAVING PASSED GFK-RDR-CKN SINCE 3 AM. VSBYS
QUICKLY GO TO ZERO TO 100 FT IN OPEN COUNTRY AS WINDS GUST TO
30-35 KTS. SIMILAR WINDS UPSTREAM TO WINNIPEG CURRENTLY AND WENT
AHD AND ISSUED BLIZZARD WARNING JUST PRIOR TO 3 AM BASED ON
INITIAL REPORTS IN PEMBINA-CAVALIER COUNTIES. 925 MB SHOW 40KTS TO
MIX DOWN AND HAVE HAD 41 KTS IN WALHALLA. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AND
BEST COLD ADVECTION NOW THRU 15Z...THEN THINGS START TO LEVEL OFF
18Z-21Z PERIOD. WENT AHD WITH BLIZZARD WARNING THRU 21Z FOR
NOW...AS DO THNK IT WILL GET A LOT BETTER AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTN. ABR/MPX GOING BLIZZARD WARNINGS AS WELL IN THEIR WIND PRONE
AREAS TODAY. DID GO WINTER WX ADV IN THE FAR EAST AS WIND GUSTS
LIKELY TO 30 KTS THERE TOO AND NEW 2 INCHES OF FLUFF FELL IN
BEMIDJI AREA YESTERDAY SO WOULD THINK SOME LOCAL BLOWING/DRIFTING
LIKELY.
IT WAS STRESSED IN ALL PRODUCTS THIS IS A GROUND BLIZZARD OUT OF
TOWN BLIZZARD AND NOT IN CITY/TOWNS WHERE VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT
TIMES BUT MUCH HIGHER.
THINGS TRANSITION TO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES LATE THIS AFTN INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SPOTS AROUND -40F OR SO BUT EVERYONE KEPT
ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ACTUALLY MOST OF THE -40F AND COLDER TEMPS
OCCUR IN THE AFTN IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING PERIOD IN NE ND/NW MN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS QUICKLY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A COLD NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FARTHER
WEST THIS TIME AND THUS -20S A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN CNTRL/ERN ND
THAN PREVIOUS COOL DOWNS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP THU NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTH IN THE ENDLESS CLIPPER PARADE WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING
SOUTH LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY WITH 30-35
IN MUCH OF THE RRV/ERN ND AS IN THE PAST THE WEST WINDS HAVE
OVERPERFORMED TEMP WISE. THEN THE ARCTIC SURGE WILL OCCUR AGAIN
FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR WINDS TO 30-40 KTS AND
LIKELY ANOTHER BLOWING SNOW EVENT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS POLAR VORTEX SETTLES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. BEST SNOW
CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE SATURDAY/SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
COUPLE WITH 100+ KT 300 HPA JET. MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS
REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
STRONG COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ON SUNDAY USHERING IN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. AS A RESULT...HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
ZERO BY MONDAY. MINIMAL WARMING ON TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS STILL
TOPPING OUT RIGHT AROUND THE ZERO MARK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
TAFS ARE PRETTY MUCH A NIGHTMARE AS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON CHANGING
VSBY AND SUSPENDED SNOW CAUSING IFR OR MVFR CIGS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE
AS SKIES CLEAR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-
007-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ005-
006-008-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
443 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH ON THURSDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW
HEAVIER AFTERNOON SQUALLS. ADDITIONAL ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROUNDING
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
POCKETS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND-CHILLS IN A FEW PLACE ARE STILL
IN THE -10F RANGE.
CLOUDS ARE RACING EASTWARD WITH A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT.
A RACE BETWEEN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND IR ABSORBING CLOUDS.
IN WESTERN REGIONS...GUIDANCE IMPLIES SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAP AND 4KM NAM ARE
FASTER WITH SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS
HAVE THE SNOW LATER AND SOME TOWARD THE AM HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SREF/GEFS IMPLY CHANCE SNOW IS HIGHER IN THIS PERIOD IN THE
WESTERN AREA. LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. THESE DATA ALSO A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD AIR AND AN ARCTIC FRONT IN OHIO THURSDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE SOME SNOW AND SHOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VERY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT GOOD SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL IN WESTERN AREAS.
PREVIOUS:
THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER WILL DELIVER WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH...WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS. UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE APPROACHING ADVISORY SNOWFALL THURSDAY STRONG
POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIFTED.
IN ADDITION...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SQUALLS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT NOW LOOKS QUITE HIGH...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
CONTINUED LIFT AS THE UPPER TROF PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION THU
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SNSQ PARAMETER VALUES OF 1 TO 3. 4KM SPC WRF
ALSO DEPICTS SOME 30DBZ+ RADAR SIMULATED ECHOES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA THU AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN LOCAL WHITEOUTS AS A RESULT...FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SPLIT IN THE POLAR
VORTEX PERSISTING FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING
JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN
THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FCST OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE LARGE
QUASI STATIONARY LOW ROTATES OVER THE BAY...AND MOVES EVER SLOWLY
EASTWARD...ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS THAT ONE CLIPPER WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER SUN NITE/MONDAY. BEHIND
EACH CLIPPER...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF
FRIGID WX COULD COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND
EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WEST COAST RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD
PA. WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AN EVER PRESENT ARCTIC AIR MASS
THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A FEW PERIODS OF LOW WIND CHILLS...GENERALLY
OVER THE ELEVATED REGIONS...THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED CONDITIONS IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS IN SOMERSET COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM. MVFR AND LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED ON THU AS
THE CLIPPER PASSES. LOCAL SQUALLS AND VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRFIELDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
421 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH ON THURSDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW
HEAVIER AFTERNOON SQUALLS. ADDITIONAL ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROUNDING
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
POCKETS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND-CHILLS IN A FEW PLACE ARE STILL
IN THE -10F RANGE.
CLOUDS ARE RACING EASTWARD WITH A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT. A
RACE BETWEEN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND IR ABSORBING CLOUDS.
IN WESTERN REGIONS...GUIDANCE IMPLIES SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAP AND 4KM NAM ARE
FASTER WITH SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS
HAVE THE SNOW LATER AND SOME TOWARD THE AM HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SREF/GEFS IMPLY CHANCE SNOW IS HIGHER IN THIS PERIOD IN THE
WESTERN AREA. LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. THESE DATA ALSO A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD AIR AND AN ARCTIC FRONT IN OHIO THURSDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE SOME SNOW AND SHOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VERY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT GOOD SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL IN WESTERN AREAS.
PREVIOUS:
THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER WILL DELIVER WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH...WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS. UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE APPROACHING ADVISORY SNOWFALL THURSDAY STRONG
POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIFTED.
IN ADDITION...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SQUALLS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT NOW LOOKS QUITE HIGH...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
CONTINUED LIFT AS THE UPPER TROF PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION THU
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SNSQ PARAMETER VALUES OF 1 TO 3. 4KM SPC WRF
ALSO DEPICTS SOME 30DBZ+ RADAR SIMULATED ECHOES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA THU AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN LOCAL WHITEOUTS AS A RESULT...FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SPLIT IN THE POLAR
VORTEX PERSISTING FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING
JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN
THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FCST OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE LARGE
QUASI STATIONARY LOW ROTATES OVER THE BAY...AND MOVES EVER SLOWLY
EASTWARD...ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS THAT ONE CLIPPER WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER SUN NITE/MONDAY. BEHIND
EACH CLIPPER...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF
FRIGID WX COULD COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND
EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WEST COAST RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD
PA. WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AN EVER PRESENT ARCTIC AIR MASS
THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A FEW PERIODS OF LOW WIND CHILLS...GENERALLY
OVER THE ELEVATED REGIONS...THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED CONDITIONS IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS IN SOMERSET COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED ON THU AS THE CLIPPER PASSES. LOCAL
SQUALLS AND VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRFIELDS IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
951 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MID EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTHWEST
(AROUND THE CLL AND CALDWELL AREA) TO THE MID 30S IN THE HOUSTON
AREA TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT THE COAST. WINDS ARE HOWLING AND
GUSTY...GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH WELL INLAND...20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND AT THE BEACHES. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59. GALE WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR PRECIP...THERE HAS
BEEN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH AN OCCASIONAL SHOW
FLURRY REPORTED ON SURFACE OBS AND VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. WHILE
RADAR IS TRENDING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE...MODELS INDICATE
MORE DEVELOPMENT FROM ROUGHLY I-10 SOUTHWARD AND OFF THE COAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...WILL NOT
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STAY SAFE! 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
A WINTRY TAF WITH PERIODS OF -RA...TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET-
RAIN...WITH A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FLURRIES FROM GENERALLY THE CITY NORTHWARD. FORECAST HAS MANY
INTERIOR HUBS FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
..COASTAL TERMINALS FALLING TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEP ENOUGH SUB-FREEZING LAYER
WITHIN THIS OVERRUNNING SITUATION TO ALLOW FOR MID-LAYER LIGHT
RAIN TO PARTIALLY FREEZE INTO SLEET ON ITS WAY THROUGH IT. LIGHT
RAIN OR SLEET FALLING ONTO COLD SURFACES (I.E., AIRCRAFT HULLS,
ELEVATED METALLIC STRUCTURES) MAY FREEZE UPON CONTACT. THIS FROZEN
MIXTURE MAY LINGER ON INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRY
AIR MOVES IN AND SCOURS OUT THE MID TO LOWER LAYERS. EARLY PERIOD
MVFR DECKS FALLING TO IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH QUITE
THE ROBUST NORTHEAST WIND IN THE 15-25G35 KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
.WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY...
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
DROP. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
AND EVEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SLOWLY SWING TOWARDS N TX TONIGHT WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. COLD AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CONROE NORTHWARD MAINLY AROUND 9PM. FREEZING TEMPS THEN
WORK NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR HOUSTON
ALTHOUGH IT COULD HAPPEN SOONER WITH PRECIP FALLING AND WET BULB
THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MODELS CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING THIS DRIER AIR OUT OF THE AREA OR SLOWLY MOVING IN MIXING
WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT IS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
AS JET DYNAMICS SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OVER THE AREA...NAM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT.
GFS NOT AS MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SOLID 0.1 TO 0.25
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRI. NAM ALSO HAS QUITE
A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS IN SEVERAL LAYERS MAINLY 850MB-700MB
PEAKING AROUND 06Z THROUGH 12Z. THE MAIN ISSUE BEFORE WAS WOULD
THERE BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP AND WHETHER DRY SUB FREEZING LAYER
WOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING GROUND. THAT HAS CHANGED AND AS A
RESULT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE MET ACROSS THE
AREA. LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER 18Z FRI SO EXPECT
PRECIP TO END IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM STILL HOLDS ONTO
PRECIP LONGER ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THINK AREAS NORTH OF CONROE WILL START WITH
RAIN TRANSITION TO MIX SLEET/FZRA UNTIL 06Z FRI. MAY THEN SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS.
POSSIBLE TO HAVE A BAND OF 1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
CALDWELL/COLLEGE STATION ACROSS HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. ICE
ACCUMULATION MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE A MESS
OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BASICALLY CONROE SOUTH THOUGH HOUSTON TO THE
COAST EXPECT RAIN GOING TO FZRA/SLEET APPROACHING MIDNIGHT WHEN
TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AT SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BUT SUPPOSE A FLAKE OR TWO COULD MIX IN WITH
SLEET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM NOSE AROUND 850-800MB IN
SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT SLEET AND DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF
SUB-FREEZING LAYER...FREEZING RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. POSSIBLE
TO GET FREEZING RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS GALVESTON BY 12Z FRI WHICH
COULD CAUSE FURTHER TRAVEL ISSUES.
ACCUMULATIONS...OVERALL EXPECT HALF INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR
NORTHERN AREAS AS OUTLINED ABOVE. GIVE MESO MODEL OUTPUT FROM TX
TECH WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS...EVEN 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS. FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERAL 0.05 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ICE
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG I-10 AND US59 AND BACK TOWARDS
HOUSTON. LOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BUT STILL
A RISK MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WEEKEND DOES LOOK TO BE WARMER AFTER FRIDGID FRIDAY. NEXT FRONT
STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL PUT MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW
FREEZING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WINTER
WEATHER SCENARIO AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED OUT WITH FRONT.
39
MARINE...
WENT AHEAD WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OUR MARINE AREAS WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE AND NO CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT CONFIGURATIONS WILL
BE COMING WITH THIS NEXT PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO DE-
CREASE BY TOMORROW/FRI AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND
BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE TX
AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUN OVERNIGHT/VERY EARLY MON. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 26 36 29 60 41 / 70 30 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 28 35 30 60 41 / 80 50 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 30 37 36 56 48 / 70 60 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WINTRY TAF WITH PERIODS OF -RA...TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET-
RAIN...WITH A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FLURRIES FROM GENERALLY THE CITY NORTHWARD. FORECAST HAS MANY
INTERIOR HUBS FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
...COASTAL TERMINALS FALLING TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEP ENOUGH SUB-FREEZING LAYER
WITHIN THIS OVERRUNNING SITUATION TO ALLOW FOR MID-LAYER LIGHT
RAIN TO PARTIALLY FREEZE INTO SLEET ON ITS WAY THROUGH IT. LIGHT
RAIN OR SLEET FALLING ONTO COLD SURFACES (I.E., AIRCRAFT HULLS,
ELEVATED METALLIC STRUCTURES) MAY FREEZE UPON CONTACT. THIS FROZEN
MIXTURE MAY LINGER ON INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRY
AIR MOVES IN AND SCOURS OUT THE MID TO LOWER LAYERS. EARLY PERIOD
MVFR DECKS FALLING TO IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH QUITE
THE ROBUST NORTHEAST WIND IN THE 15-25G35 KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY...
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
DROP. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
AND EVEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SLOWLY SWING TOWARDS N TX TONIGHT WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. COLD AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CONROE NORTHWARD MAINLY AROUND 9PM. FREEZING TEMPS THEN
WORK NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR HOUSTON
ALTHOUGH IT COULD HAPPEN SOONER WITH PRECIP FALLING AND WET BULB
THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MODELS CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING THIS DRIER AIR OUT OF THE AREA OR SLOWLY MOVING IN MIXING
WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT IS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
AS JET DYNAMICS SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OVER THE AREA...NAM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT.
GFS NOT AS MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SOLID 0.1 TO 0.25
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRI. NAM ALSO HAS QUITE
A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS IN SEVERAL LAYERS MAINLY 850MB-700MB
PEAKING AROUND 06Z THROUGH 12Z. THE MAIN ISSUE BEFORE WAS WOULD
THERE BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP AND WHETHER DRY SUB FREEZING LAYER
WOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING GROUND. THAT HAS CHANGED AND AS A
RESULT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE MET ACROSS THE
AREA. LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER 18Z FRI SO EXPECT
PRECIP TO END IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM STILL HOLDS ONTO
PRECIP LONGER ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THINK AREAS NORTH OF CONROE WILL START WITH
RAIN TRANSITION TO MIX SLEET/FZRA UNTIL 06Z FRI. MAY THEN SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS.
POSSIBLE TO HAVE A BAND OF 1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
CALDWELL/COLLEGE STATION ACROSS HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. ICE
ACCUMULATION MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE A MESS
OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BASICALLY CONROE SOUTH THOUGH HOUSTON TO THE
COAST EXPECT RAIN GOING TO FZRA/SLEET APPROACHING MIDNIGHT WHEN
TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AT SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BUT SUPPOSE A FLAKE OR TWO COULD MIX IN WITH
SLEET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM NOSE AROUND 850-800MB IN
SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT SLEET AND DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF
SUB-FREEZING LAYER...FREEZING RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. POSSIBLE
TO GET FREEZING RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS GALVESTON BY 12Z FRI WHICH
COULD CAUSE FURTHER TRAVEL ISSUES.
ACCUMULATIONS...OVERALL EXPECT HALF INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR
NORTHERN AREAS AS OUTLINED ABOVE. GIVE MESO MODEL OUTPUT FROM TX
TECH WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS...EVEN 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS. FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERAL 0.05 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ICE
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG I-10 AND US59 AND BACK TOWARDS
HOUSTON. LOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BUT STILL
A RISK MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WEEKEND DOES LOOK TO BE WARMER AFTER FRIDGID FRIDAY. NEXT FRONT
STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL PUT MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW
FREEZING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WINTER
WEATHER SCENARIO AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED OUT WITH FRONT.
39
AVIATION...
ALREADY SEEING SNOW IN CLL OBS THIS AFTN. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING
PCPN TYPES/TIMES WITH AMENDMENTS THUS FAR. END TIMES FOR THE
WINTRY MIX MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED PAST THE 15Z CURRENTLY IN THE
TAFS FOR TO- MORROW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NRN SITES (CLL/UTS/CXO).
41
MARINE...
WENT AHEAD WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OUR MARINE AREAS WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE AND NO CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT CONFIGURATIONS WILL
BE COMING WITH THIS NEXT PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO DE-
CREASE BY TOMORROW/FRI AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND
BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE TX
AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUN OVERNIGHT/VERY EARLY MON. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 26 36 29 60 41 / 70 30 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 28 35 30 60 41 / 80 50 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 30 37 36 56 48 / 70 60 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...
TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE SNOW THAT IS
ENTERING THE AREA AND WITH HOW MUCH WILL FALL. STARTING TO HAVE
CONCERNS THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO SEE AS MUCH AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY...THE FIRST WAVE IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AIR MASS.
VISIBILITIES ARE ONLY AROUND 4SM RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD NOT CHANGE
MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. THAT WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FIRST BAND. THE SECOND WAVE IS THE MORE
POTENT WAVE AND WILL COME THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT WHAT IS COMING OUR
WAY...MANY OF THE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
2SM RANGE AND IS ONLY OVER A NARROW SWATH. THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE NOT BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS BUT AT LEAST MIRROR WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING. WHILE THE LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
LOOKS DECENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT...WOULD REALLY PREFER TO
SEE A TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TO GET
INTO THE HEAVIER SNOWS. WHILE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER
SIDE...QPF STILL LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT AROUND 0.05". AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THAT 3" LOOKS LIKE A HIGH MARK TO HIT FROM THIS
SNOW WITH 2" OR LESS LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING AIM ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
SLIDING THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. GOOD QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE. THERMODYNAMICS ARE ALSO GOOD...WITH 925-700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K SFCS LEADING THE CHARGE -
MAXED IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. SATURATION ISN/T THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT DEEP ENOUGH PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. MOST FAVORABLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
WITH THIS AMPLE FORCING AND SUFFICIENT SATURATION...THE AREA CAN
EXPECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AS FOR HOW MUCH...LATEST
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS VIA THE NAM AND GFS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC ZONE GROWTH REGION FROM THE SFC TO NEARLY 8 KFT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK LIFT DURING
THIS TIME. BIG...FLUFFY FLAKES ARE LIKELY...AND RAPID ACCUMULATIONS
COULD OCCUR. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY THOUGH...AND QPF IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THIS WILL HOLD DOWN THE AMOUNTS. SNOW RATIOS OF
20/30 TO 1 STILL LOOK GOOD...RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 INCHES TOTALS.
WINDS ARE GOING TO PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IOWA...AND AREA RIDGE-TOPS. NOT SURE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SO COVER THESE IMPACTS...BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SWEEPS IN WITH THE TROUGH AND PASSING SFC
COLD FRONT WED MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
FROM THE MORNING READINGS. CLOUDS COULD LINGER FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EAST FOR A BETTER PART OF THE WED NIGHT...INHIBITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT LOWS SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT FROM THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COUPLE THIS WITH THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 25
TO 35 BELOW OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH THU MORNING. ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED - OR PERHAPS WINTER WEATHER ADV IF BLOWING
SNOW IS AN ISSUE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
GOOD CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS - GFS/ECMWF/GEM - WITH
DROPPING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION. BOTH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...AND COULD SEE TWO SEPARATE BANDS SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. SATURATION ISN/T THAT GREAT...AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY...WHICH WILL KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN. HARD TO QUANTIFY AT THIS
TIME...BUT LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR LESS AT THIS MOMENT.
WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES FOR FRIDAY...AND
HIGHS COULD VENTURE BACK TO THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE RETURN WOULD
BE VERY BRIEF AS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THE STRONGER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. 850 MB TEMPS
WOULD DROP TO -24 C ON SAT VIA THE GFS. HIGHS ON SAT COULD OCCUR IN
THE EARLY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY/FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY.
MIGHT AS WELL JUMP ON THE WAVE TRAIN...AS YOUR TICKET HAS ALREADY
BEEN PUNCHED. WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD SLIP ACROSS THE REGION SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TIMING AND POSITIONING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/IF IT WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. WHEREVER IT TRACKS...SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY MVFR WITH VISIBILITY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE WHILE CEILINGS RANGE FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR. THE
MAIN BAND OF IFR IS NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND IS EXPECTED TO
SWING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT LSE HAS A BETTER
CHANCE OF GETTING IFR THAN RST DOES...THOUGH IT COULD GO EAST OF
THE SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK WITH
WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 30KTS.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW AT RST...THOUGH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT HOW LOW
CONDITIONS WILL GET. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THOUGH THE BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
358 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Today: Primary focus will be on strong wind potential and critical
fire danger (see FIRE WEATHER section below).
For the umpteenth time this month, yet another strong mid level gyre
will drop south from central Canada, replacing the arctic air with
increasingly mild conditions. Surface pressures which started out at
around 1044mb at 00Z, will crash to near 1014mb by 00Z this evening.
Aches and pains alert! Incredible 30mb/24-hour pressure falls, coupled
with 50-60 knot 925mb flow, will once again set the stage for very
windy conditions across the region. As has been the case with the
last several wind events, strong vertical mixing and downward
momentum transfer will contribute to very strong gusts that will be
well above what is "typically" expected for forecast sustained winds
of 15 to 25 mph. Other than scattered mid cloud, ample sunshine
should help realize nearly maximum gust potential, with the RAP and
HRRR both suggesting widespread gusts exceeding 40 knots from late
morning through mid afternoon, as the pressure wave pushes southeast.
Have collaborated a wind advisory which will run from 10AM through
2PM across far NW MO/NE KS, and through 6PM across most of west
central/central/northeast MO into far eastern Kansas.
Despite the southwest winds, warm advection will lag quite a bit,
with most of the diurnal temperature boost coming in the 11AM-3PM
time frame. As a result, another very cold start expected this
morning with wind chills in the -5 to -10F range as the kids head to
the bus stop.
Tonight-Saturday:
Deep mixing will keep temperatures relatively mild tonight with lows
running some 20 degrees warmer than this morning. A few flurries to a
light dusting of snow could glance the far NE counties, but the bulk
of any very minor accumulations should once again fall well east of
the region as the strongest mid level ascent shifts into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Weak cyclonic flow and cloud cover beneath and intense upper jet will
lend to a challenging temperature forecast Saturday. High
temperatures will range some 15-20 degrees from the upper 20s near
Kirksville to the mid 40s across west central MO, and the gradient
magnitude varies considerably among the 00Z models.
Sunday-Sunday Night:
Low level temps will steadily warm Saturday night and early Sunday
ahead of the next arctic blast. 925mb temps could reach +10C,
suggesting that temperatures will likely reach the low-mid 50s across
all but far nrn MO before frontal passage late in the afternoon.
Definitely the mildest day in the coming week. In a reversal of
fortune so to speak, surface pressures will increase 30mb from 12Z
Sunday to 12Z Monday, coincident with a strong arctic blast trailing
yet another Canadian Clipper. Temperatures will plummet some 45 to 50
degrees from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning, and I would not be
surprised to see wind gusts again in the 30-40 mph range Sunday
evening. (Need to do some research as I cannot ever recall this
magnitude of wind in January across Missouri).
Monday-Thursday:
See no change in the overall upper flow pattern to round out the end
of the month. Above average confidence in little to no measurable
precipitation, and above average confidence in much below normal
temperatures Monday/Tuesday, then trending back toward normal
Wednesday/Thursday ahead of the next closed low in the sequence
dropping south through the Canadian Prairies.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected along and south of a
St. Joseph to Carrollton to Moberly line from late morning through
mid afternoon.
Early morning observations show a very dry boundary layer in place
with dewpoints in the single digits below zero. Very little moderate
of this airmass is expected as temperatures steadily warm into the
upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, yielding relative humidity
values between 18 and 25%. The very dry airmass and 10-hour fuel
stick moistures of 7-8% will contribute to a very volatile setup as
southwest winds increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
Given the potential for rapid grassland fire spread, a red flag
warning remains in effect from 10AM thru 8PM for the aforementioned
areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
VFR conditions are expected through the entire forecast. The biggest
concern will be from very strong and gusty south/southwesterly winds.
Winds will increase around sunrise as the surface high pressure
slides to the south and east and the pressure gradient really
strengthens across the area. As deeper mixing develops later in the
morning and this afternoon winds will become quite strong and gusty.
Have increased winds into the 25kt sustained 35kt gust range. Winds
potentially could be stronger if the pressure gradient and deepest
mixing occur together. But for now this looks to occur south and east
of the terminals.
A secondary concern is for LLWS late tonight through a few hours
after sunrise, before deeper mixing develops. Winds aloft will be
very strong, possibly around 50 kts. This will occur prior to the
surface pressure gradient strengthening. As a result have added LLWS
to the forecast.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this
evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this afternoon
FOR KSZ025-102.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this
evening FOR MOZ020>022-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR MOZ008-017-021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this afternoon
FOR MOZ001>007-011>016-020.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...CDB
FIRE WEATHER...Bookbinder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
The large Arctic high will continue to sink southward away from
the region today while the next frontal system begins driving
southward into the northern Plains. In between the surface
pressure gradient will tighten up as will the height field,
resulting in rather strong winds through the lower trop. The
combination of this along with mixing will produce strong and
gusty southwest winds. Both MOS values and wind gusts from the
HRRR and RAP suggest winds will meet advisory criteria across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with
wind gusts of 40 kts possible. This regime is also favorable for a
good warm-up even with the very cold start, and have highs above
the MOS guidance.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
A nw flow shortwave and attendant ULJ will dig into the area
tonight sending another cold front through the region. As has been
the case recently, strong and gusty northwest winds will accompany
the front. Large scale ascent associated with the shortwave
appears sufficient to produce an area of light snow across
northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Currently it looks like
the St. Louis region will be on the western fringe of the snow
field. I have bumped up pops in the high chance to likely category
within the aforementioned zone, and anticipate amounts from a
dusting to less than an inch. We remain in cyclonic flow and
northwest winds on Saturday with temperatures expected to remain
below average. The temperature see-saw then continues on Sunday as
the weak high pressure ridge departs quickly on Saturday night
and we are well into low-level warm advection just after midnight.
Strong warm advection on Sunday and gusty southwest-west winds
once again suggest a good warm-up with highs getting well above
normal. Enjoy the "warmth" because it is all downhill after
Sunday. The next formidable Arctic front/blast comes roaring into
the region on Sunday night and the airmass with this front is the
coldest since the early January Arctic outbreak.
A large full latitude longwave trof will continue to dominate
central and eastern NOAM through the middle of next week keeping
very cold conditions locked in across the region. The models are
finally showing signs this blocky cold pattern breaking down and by
early February suggest a negative phase of the PNA pattern will
become established.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2014
VFR fcst with sfc ridge settling south into TX tonight. Main story
will be the gusty SSW winds on Friday. Winds are in the process of
going sthrly tonight. All model guidance indicates 40 to 60 kts
of wind just a couple thousand feet off the ground. Some of this
is fcst to mix to the sfc. The pressure gradient also increases
significantly tomorrow. This means sustained wind near 20 kts with
gusts 30 to 35kts. This could lead to crosswind concerns on certain
runway configurations. Removed the mention of LLWS except at KCPS
and KSUS. Think that the threat remains marginal as the winds
aloft arrive just before mixing begins. I think there may still be
a brief window of a couple hrs as mixing is delayed due to the
location of the arpts in river valleys. Otherwise...expect an
increase in mid/high level cloudiness and continued gusty winds.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR fcst with the main concern gusty SSW winds. This will likley
become a crosswind concern later Friday morning and continuing
thru the rest of the day. Winds eventually will become NW by
Saturday morning. I removed the mention of LLWS as the window of
opportunity looks too narrow on the order of a couple hrs. The
stronger winds aloft arrive just before mixing begins.
2%
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 215 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2014
After coordinating with surrounding offices, as well as USFS and
MO Dept of Conservation, will be issuing a Red Flag Warning for
parts of central and east central Missouri, as well as much of
southeast Missouri, for late Friday morning into Friday evening.
Setup looks favorable for a strong warmup while surface ridge to
our south blocks any significant moisture return. Red Flag
criteria should easily be met...10hr fuel moisture values below
8% (criteria less than 9%), sustained SW winds at least 20 mph
(criteria greater than 15 mph) with higher gusts, and latest
temp/dewpoint forecasts suggests afternoon RH values below 20%
roughly along and south of a COU- Ste. Genevieve line (criteria
less than 25%).
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-
Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St.
Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon
FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon
FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
224 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WILL LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 12Z.
SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS
FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS SURFACE HIGH
SINKS FARTHER SOUTH OF TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS DIVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
AREAS. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AROUND 850
MBARS ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH WINDS JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO TURN WESTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA. LATEST RUC SOUNDING SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. I/R SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS
FIBRATUS SCOOTING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA ASSOCIATED
WITH 160 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 20S AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPING AM EXPECTING
TEMPS TONIGHT TO ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS PRESENTS KNOWN HERE IN THE MID STATE
AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CONTINUING EAST
OF INTERSTATE 24 SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A HALF INCH
ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ITS NOT AS
COLD BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AS PREVIOUS CLIPPERS. SURFACE HIGH
QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AROUND 50 MANY AREAS WITH MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE PLATEAU.
A STRONGER CLIPPER COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN
ONCE AGAIN. THE WORK WEEK LOOKS COLD AND SOMEWHAT A REPEAT OF WHAT
WE JUST HAD. LOOKING FARTHER OUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PATTERN
CHANGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET BECOMES
DOMINATE. THIS BEGINS TO SHOW UP ON THE EURO BY THE 31ST OF
JANUARY AND CONTINUES PAST GROUNDHOG DAY. LETS HOPE ITS A CLOUDY
DAY WHEN HE EMERGES FROM HIS BURROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 26 22 42 22 / 0 20 10 05
CLARKSVILLE 26 23 38 20 / 0 30 10 05
CROSSVILLE 23 20 34 19 / 0 10 30 05
COLUMBIA 27 22 42 22 / 0 10 10 05
LAWRENCEBURG 29 23 43 23 / 0 05 10 05
WAVERLY 26 23 40 21 / 0 20 10 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011-
032>034-065-066-078>080.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS LOOK LIKELY FROM
MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLDSPRING. QUITE A LULL IN PRECIP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO
THE REGION AND RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES WILL START
TO FREEZE. TXDOT IS REPORTING ICE ON MANY ROADS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND THIS APPEARS TO BE BACKED UP BY RADAR WHICH
SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WILL PROBABLY NOT MEET WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA
BUT DON`T SEE THE SENSE IN SWITCHING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. WILL RE-EVALUATE AT 12Z ONCE THE MORNING SOUNDINGS
COME IN...BUT FEEL THE WSW COULD BE DROPPED BY 15Z. DON`T BE
SURPRISED IF AN UPDATED FORECAST IS ISSUED BETWEEN 6-7 AM.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING FROM THE TOP SO SNOW NORTH OF HOUSTON
WILL LOSE THEIR ICE CRYSTALS AND PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO ICE
PELLETS OR FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...06Z SOUNDING LAUNCHED AT
THE UNIV OF HOUSTON SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH A WARM NOSE
BETWEEN 900-700 MB AND A SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM 900 MB TO NEAR
1000 MB. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE WILL AFFECT HOUSTON METRO
AREAS FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE ENDING. THE STRONG RRQ WHICH
HAS ENHANCED LIFT IS PULLING AWAY AND OMEGA WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY
THIS MORNING SO FEEL MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END EARLY
THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS CLOUDY ALL DAY SO DON`T
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL RELAX LATER TODAY. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
COAST THRU 15Z BUT THE TREND IS FOR WINDS TO RELAX THIS MORNING.
WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SAT/SUN AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED 60
DEGREES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S TUES/WED MORNING
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS
ARE DRY WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHILE THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 37 29 59 40 67 / 40 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 36 31 59 42 67 / 70 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 37 37 55 48 64 / 70 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: FORT BEND...HARRIS...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS LATEST PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING THIS WINTRY
MIX TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
EARLY PRE-DAWN COLUMN COOLS FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING (FROM LIGHT
PRECIPITATION) AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MANY OF THE INTERIOR TERMINALS.
THERE IS A DECENT POSSIBILITY THAT THE (NEAR) COASTAL HUBS WILL
ALSO EXPERIENCE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL. HIGH REZ MODELING DEPICTS
A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FILL IN OF -PLSN OR -SN FROM AROUND 09Z
THROUGH 13-15Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WINTER
PRECIPITATION AND AMPED NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH LATE MORNING. CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT VRB
WINDS BY EARLY EVENING. THUS...THE NEXT 8 HOURS WILL BE THE WORST
OF IT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MID EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTHWEST
(AROUND THE CLL AND CALDWELL AREA) TO THE MID 30S IN THE HOUSTON
AREA TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT THE COAST. WINDS ARE HOWLING AND
GUSTY...GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH WELL INLAND...20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND AT THE BEACHES. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59. GALE WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR PRECIP...THERE HAS
BEEN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH AN OCCASIONAL SHOW
FLURRY REPORTED ON SURFACE OBS AND VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. WHILE
RADAR IS TRENDING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE...MODELS INDICATE
MORE DEVELOPMENT FROM ROUGHLY I-10 SOUTHWARD AND OFF THE COAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...WILL NOT
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STAY SAFE! 42
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
A WINTRY TAF WITH PERIODS OF -RA...TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET-
RAIN...WITH A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FLURRIES FROM GENERALLY THE CITY NORTHWARD. FORECAST HAS MANY
INTERIOR HUBS FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
.COASTAL TERMINALS FALLING TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEP ENOUGH SUB-FREEZING LAYER
WITHIN THIS OVERRUNNING SITUATION TO ALLOW FOR MID-LAYER LIGHT
RAIN TO PARTIALLY FREEZE INTO SLEET ON ITS WAY THROUGH IT. LIGHT
RAIN OR SLEET FALLING ONTO COLD SURFACES (I.E., AIRCRAFT HULLS,
ELEVATED METALLIC STRUCTURES) MAY FREEZE UPON CONTACT. THIS FROZEN
MIXTURE MAY LINGER ON INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRY
AIR MOVES IN AND SCOURS OUT THE MID TO LOWER LAYERS. EARLY PERIOD
MVFR DECKS FALLING TO IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH QUITE
THE ROBUST NORTHEAST WIND IN THE 15-25G35 KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. 31
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY...
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
DROP. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
AND EVEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SLOWLY SWING TOWARDS N TX TONIGHT WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. COLD AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CONROE NORTHWARD MAINLY AROUND 9PM. FREEZING TEMPS THEN
WORK NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR HOUSTON
ALTHOUGH IT COULD HAPPEN SOONER WITH PRECIP FALLING AND WET BULB
THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MODELS CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING THIS DRIER AIR OUT OF THE AREA OR SLOWLY MOVING IN MIXING
WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT IS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
AS JET DYNAMICS SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OVER THE AREA...NAM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT.
GFS NOT AS MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SOLID 0.1 TO 0.25
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRI. NAM ALSO HAS QUITE
A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS IN SEVERAL LAYERS MAINLY 850MB-700MB
PEAKING AROUND 06Z THROUGH 12Z. THE MAIN ISSUE BEFORE WAS WOULD
THERE BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP AND WHETHER DRY SUB FREEZING LAYER
WOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING GROUND. THAT HAS CHANGED AND AS A
RESULT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE MET ACROSS THE
AREA. LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER 18Z FRI SO EXPECT
PRECIP TO END IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM STILL HOLDS ONTO
PRECIP LONGER ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THINK AREAS NORTH OF CONROE WILL START WITH
RAIN TRANSITION TO MIX SLEET/FZRA UNTIL 06Z FRI. MAY THEN SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS.
POSSIBLE TO HAVE A BAND OF 1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
CALDWELL/COLLEGE STATION ACROSS HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. ICE
ACCUMULATION MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE A MESS
OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BASICALLY CONROE SOUTH THOUGH HOUSTON TO THE
COAST EXPECT RAIN GOING TO FZRA/SLEET APPROACHING MIDNIGHT WHEN
TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AT SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BUT SUPPOSE A FLAKE OR TWO COULD MIX IN WITH
SLEET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM NOSE AROUND 850-800MB IN
SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT SLEET AND DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF
SUB-FREEZING LAYER...FREEZING RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. POSSIBLE
TO GET FREEZING RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS GALVESTON BY 12Z FRI WHICH
COULD CAUSE FURTHER TRAVEL ISSUES.
ACCUMULATIONS...OVERALL EXPECT HALF INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR
NORTHERN AREAS AS OUTLINED ABOVE. GIVE MESO MODEL OUTPUT FROM TX
TECH WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS...EVEN 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS. FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERAL 0.05 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ICE
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG I-10 AND US59 AND BACK TOWARDS
HOUSTON. LOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BUT STILL
A RISK MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WEEKEND DOES LOOK TO BE WARMER AFTER FRIDGID FRIDAY. NEXT FRONT
STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL PUT MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW
FREEZING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WINTER
WEATHER SCENARIO AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED OUT WITH FRONT. 39
&&
.MARINE... WENT AHEAD WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OUR MARINE
AREAS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AND NO CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT
CONFIGURATIONS WILL BE COMING WITH THIS NEXT PACKAGE. STILL
EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO DE- CREASE BY TOMORROW/FRI AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE TX AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
SUN OVERNIGHT/VERY EARLY MON. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 26 36 29 60 41 / 70 30 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 28 35 30 60 41 / 80 50 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 30 37 36 56 48 / 70 60 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
543 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
STRONG WAA LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HELPING
TO PUSH MAX TEMPS ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPS. THE LATEST ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST WITH
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND HAS BEEN THE
BEST GUIDANCE LATELY WITH THESE QUICK ONE DAY WARM-UPS. IF MIXED
TO JUST 900MB...TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY WHICH RESULTED IN WARMING TEMPS UP 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO MIX SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH BETTER
SUNSHINE...SO WIND GUSTS MAY TEETER ON ADVISORY LEVEL FOR A SHORT
TIME FRAME LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A QUICK SHOT OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN TIERS OF FORECAST THRU 18Z. HIRES ARW/NMM
WRF MODELS BARELY HAVE ANY PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THE LATEST HOPWRF (24.06Z) AND HRRR (24.06Z) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THEM. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING FROM 13-17Z AND
KEPT MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE HIRES
ARW/NMM WRF MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA
BY 22Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. SO WENT DRY 18Z TO 21Z AND CONFINED POPS TO
THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF IOWA COUNTIES. MCW SOUNDING QUICKLY
BECOMES DEEPLY SATURATED BY AROUND 00Z AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SNOW/RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST...AS
SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW MELT PRIOR TO
REACHING THE GROUND.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
WEATHER WILL BE VERY ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT HEADLINE EVENTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...INCLUDING WHAT MAY
BE A BLIZZARD LATE SUNDAY. INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...WHICH WILL NOT
BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...SHOULD BE ENTERING NRN IA AT BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS HUDSON BAY LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DEEP BUT SOMEWHAT PATCHY WITH
NAM LIFT MORE BULLISH THAN GFS OR ECMWF. WITH FAST MOVEMENT AND
FOLLOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...ANY UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FLEETING.
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER SOLUTIONS BRING MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE OR AT
LEAST NEAR THE FREEZING MARK MAKING THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE RAIN
SW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER NORTHEAST. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL
ALSO RAISE LOWEST 1KM TEMPS HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW RATIOS SO ONLY
EXPECT ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS FAR NORTHEAST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN FOLLOW SAT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
AND COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN LITTLE DIURNAL REBOUND. IN
FACT...NON-DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MAKE HIGHS AND LOWS PROBLEMATIC WITH LOWER/RISING TEMPS AT TIMES
CENTERED AROUND DAYS/NIGHTS RESPECTIVELY. ATTENTION WILL THEN
QUICKLY TURN UPSTREAM WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP NW-SE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
DEEP...AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DECENT KINEMATIC LIFT...IT
SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY STRONG AND IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
/THETA-E ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS/. THIS DEEP LIFT AND COOLER
COLUMN TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN TONIGHT...WELL
INTO THE TEENS. RATIOS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...OVER 20...BUT THE
MAX LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE 1-2KM AND MAINLY BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED RATIOS AND FAST
SYSTEM MOVEMENT...LIKELY SNOWING LESS THAN SIX HOURS AT ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION...SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN THE FAR NE CORNERS AS WELL
/MASON CITY/WATERLOO NORTH/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT THE GREATEST
ON AMOUNTS HOWEVER AS ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED THEIR
SNOW AXIS EMPHASIS. ECMWF NOW EMPHASIZES MORE NELY TRACK.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE BIG IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACTS NOT SEEN UNTIL SUN AND SUN EVENING. MAY SEE
SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS...BUT LARGER PROBLEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND A BIG
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY
DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS OFTEN 40-55KTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH. NO HEADLINES AS OF YET
IN THIS PERIOD...BUT OPTIONS MAY ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM WIND
ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS TO FULL FLEDGED BLIZZARD WARNINGS IF
FORECASTED SNOWFALL DEVELOPS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOMEWHAT OF A WORSE CASE SCENARIO WITH A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS INTO MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS NE WILL REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH...READINGS MAY SURGE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK NW-SE ALONG
THE SWRN FRINGE OF SNOW ACCUMS WITH SOME MINOR MELTING FOLLOWED BY A
FLASH FREEZE WITH SHARP TEMP DROP LATER IN THE EVENING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER ARCTIC COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ISSUES AND CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW NE HALF.
SERIOUS...LIFE THREATENING TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NE HALF
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TO MAKE ANY
HEADWAY...ASSUMING FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS OF COURSE. THIS WOULD BE
COINCIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 45 BELOW. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
PATTERN INTO TUE...AND PERSISTENT NWLY WINDS...TEMPS AT MASON CITY
FOR INSTANCE MAY NOT TOP ZERO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT
IN A 30 HOUR PERIOD WITH AT LEAST MINOR BLOWING SNOW AND WARNING
CRITERIA WIND CHILLS /-30F/. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WILL NEED CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD WITH CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS SOMEWHAT MORE INACTIVE
THANKFULLY WITH ONLY PRECIP WINDOW AROUND WED NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO
ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS A LOBE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND HAVE GUSTS NEAR 30
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING. NEXT ISSUE IS WITH QUICK SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT TO BRING MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY VIS FOR LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN. SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS THIS EVENING...BUT
STRATUS LOOKS TO STICK AROUND WITH THE STRONG CAA DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
STRONG WAA LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HELPING
TO PUSH MAX TEMPS ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPS. THE LATEST ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST WITH
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND HAS BEEN THE
BEST GUIDANCE LATELY WITH THESE QUICK ONE DAY WARM-UPS. IF MIXED
TO JUST 900MB...TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY WHICH RESULTED IN WARMING TEMPS UP 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO MIX SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH BETTER
SUNSHINE...SO WIND GUSTS MAY TEETER ON ADVISORY LEVEL FOR A SHORT
TIME FRAME LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A QUICK SHOT OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN TIERS OF FORECAST THRU 18Z. HIRES ARW/NMM
WRF MODELS BARELY HAVE ANY PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THE LATEST HOPWRF (24.06Z) AND HRRR (24.06Z) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THEM. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING FROM 13-17Z AND
KEPT MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE HIRES
ARW/NMM WRF MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA
BY 22Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. SO WENT DRY 18Z TO 21Z AND CONFINED POPS TO
THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF IOWA COUNTIES. MCW SOUNDING QUICKLY
BECOMES DEEPLY SATURATED BY AROUND 00Z AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SNOW/RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST...AS
SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW MELT PRIOR TO
REACHING THE GROUND.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
WEATHER WILL BE VERY ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT HEADLINE EVENTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...INCLUDING WHAT MAY
BE A BLIZZARD LATE SUNDAY. INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...WHICH WILL NOT
BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...SHOULD BE ENTERING NRN IA AT BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS HUDSON BAY LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DEEP BUT SOMEWHAT PATCHY WITH
NAM LIFT MORE BULLISH THAN GFS OR ECMWF. WITH FAST MOVEMENT AND
FOLLOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...ANY UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FLEETING.
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER SOLUTIONS BRING MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE OR AT
LEAST NEAR THE FREEZING MARK MAKING THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE RAIN
SW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER NORTHEAST. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL
ALSO RAISE LOWEST 1KM TEMPS HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW RATIOS SO ONLY
EXPECT ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS FAR NORTHEAST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN FOLLOW SAT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
AND COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN LITTLE DIURNAL REBOUND. IN
FACT...NON-DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MAKE HIGHS AND LOWS PROBLEMATIC WITH LOWER/RISING TEMPS AT TIMES
CENTERED AROUND DAYS/NIGHTS RESPECTIVELY. ATTENTION WILL THEN
QUICKLY TURN UPSTREAM WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP NW-SE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
DEEP...AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DECENT KINEMATIC LIFT...IT
SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY STRONG AND IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
/THETA-E ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS/. THIS DEEP LIFT AND COOLER
COLUMN TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN TONIGHT...WELL
INTO THE TEENS. RATIOS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...OVER 20...BUT THE
MAX LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE 1-2KM AND MAINLY BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED RATIOS AND FAST
SYSTEM MOVEMENT...LIKELY SNOWING LESS THAN SIX HOURS AT ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION...SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN THE FAR NE CORNERS AS WELL
/MASON CITY/WATERLOO NORTH/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT THE GREATEST
ON AMOUNTS HOWEVER AS ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED THEIR
SNOW AXIS EMPHASIS. ECMWF NOW EMPHASIZES MORE NELY TRACK.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE BIG IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACTS NOT SEEN UNTIL SUN AND SUN EVENING. MAY SEE
SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS...BUT LARGER PROBLEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND A BIG
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY
DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS OFTEN 40-55KTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH. NO HEADLINES AS OF YET
IN THIS PERIOD...BUT OPTIONS MAY ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM WIND
ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS TO FULL FLEDGED BLIZZARD WARNINGS IF
FORECASTED SNOWFALL DEVELOPS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOMEWHAT OF A WORSE CASE SCENARIO WITH A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS INTO MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS NE WILL REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH...READINGS MAY SURGE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK NW-SE ALONG
THE SWRN FRINGE OF SNOW ACCUMS WITH SOME MINOR MELTING FOLLOWED BY A
FLASH FREEZE WITH SHARP TEMP DROP LATER IN THE EVENING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER ARCTIC COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ISSUES AND CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW NE HALF.
SERIOUS...LIFE THREATENING TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NE HALF
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TO MAKE ANY
HEADWAY...ASSUMING FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS OF COURSE. THIS WOULD BE
COINCIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 45 BELOW. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
PATTERN INTO TUE...AND PERSISTENT NWLY WINDS...TEMPS AT MASON CITY
FOR INSTANCE MAY NOT TOP ZERO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT
IN A 30 HOUR PERIOD WITH AT LEAST MINOR BLOWING SNOW AND WARNING
CRITERIA WIND CHILLS /-30F/. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WILL NEED CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD WITH CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS SOMEWHAT MORE INACTIVE
THANKFULLY WITH ONLY PRECIP WINDOW AROUND WED NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO
ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS A LOBE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FRIDAY AND TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER. PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
CIGS LOWERING AND MVFR VSBYS. MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED AT THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KDSM
AND OTM.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1010 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH OR MORE WILL BECOME LIKELY. THIS WIND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH RECENT SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BECOME WORSE THIS AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT ON
SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA
ALONG WITH MORE WIND AND COLD AIR. THIS COULD PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF
IMPACT TO THE AREA WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. MORE
COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT WILL RULE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE LAKE ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW
SNOW EVENT IS STARTING TO INCREASE AND SHOULD BE GOING STRONG
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM. THERE MAY BE A SORT OF LULL FOR A FEW HOURS
THEN THE MORE SYNOPTIC PART OF THE STORM KICKS IN AROUND 7 PM AND
SHOULD GO TILL AROUND 6 AM. IT DURING THAT TIME MOST OF THE
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR.
AS OF 10 AM WE HAVE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW OVER MOST OF
OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AND BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW NORTH OF
THERE. AS THE WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE SO I
EXPECT OVERALL THE WIND CHILLS TO WARM SOME...BEING IN THE 0 TO 10
BELOW RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOW THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES WILL HAVE 50
TO 55 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER (3000 FT IN DEPTH) FROM 1 PM TILL 5
PM THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH RANGE MKG...GRR AND
BIV HAVE VISIBILITIES UNDER 3 MILES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ONCE
THE SNOW RATES INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR
40 MPH WE WILL BE SEEING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF WE NEED TO UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING...
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT STILL SEEMS TO ME WE CAN GO AHEAD WITH THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE.
ONE OTHER ISSUE TO ADDRESS LATER IS THE LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THE
STORM SATURDAY. I COULD SEE EXPANDED THE WARNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF US-131.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVENT EXPECTED FOR
TODAY INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES
TO THE HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA AS
CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.
THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN THIS
MORNING. RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT HAS DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES AS THE
UPPER JET IS SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. CLOUDS HOLDING IN THUS FAR HAVE KEPT TEMPS AND RESULTING WIND
CHILLS IN CHECK. WE DO EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS CLEARING FROM THE S WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE SE WITH THE
FLOW GOING SW. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP AND DRIVE THE WIND CHILLS
DOWN THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND REALLY GET CRANKING
AROUND MID MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR CENTERED
AROUND 18Z +/- A COUPLE OF HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. THESE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WHILE
LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS FALLING THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING. HOW MUCH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SNOW
STARTS FALLING IS UNCERTAIN. THIS IS ONE REASON WE ARE HOLDING OFF
ON A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP UP
NORTH WITH THE BETTER WINDS STILL IN PLACE...SO THE WARNING AREA UP
NORTH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED A BIT CLOSER.
THE WORST BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL OCCUR WHILE THE WINDS ARE
STILL UP THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THE SNOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SNOW PORTION OF THE EVENT WILL BE A COMBINATION OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH DELTA T/S EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS C BY THAT TIME. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
FAIRLY ROBUST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA LIKELY
DUE TO THE WINDS COMING OFF OF THE LAKE AND DUE TO THE FLOW AND THE
CONTOUR OF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
BANDS SIMILAR TO THE EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE DGZ IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HELP WITH ACCUMS. THIS
PART OF THE EVENT WILL HELP THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA SEE THE
HIGHEST ACCUMS DURING THE EVENT.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE THE CWFA WILL BE PLACED UNDER THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER JET DIVING IN WHICH WILL HELP ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE. BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE WINDS AND GUST
POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE CORE OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
THE SNOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE CWFA BY 12Z SAT...LEAVING LAKE EFFECT IN ITS WAKE. THE UPPER JET
WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
INVERSION HTS/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ACROSS THE NW AND SW
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WITH MEAN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED. LAKE
EFFECT WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS
NORTH AND WE SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD OVERHEAD. SAT NIGHT COULD
BE A COLD NIGHT INLAND WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
MORE HIGH IMPACT/HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW....AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.
SCHOOL/BUSINESS CLOSURES ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WHERE FREQUENT WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL APPEAR LIKELY AGAIN.
THE NEXT CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GRTLKS REGION ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PLACEMENT/COVERAGE OF HIGHEST SYNOPTIC SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH HOWEVER IN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF
BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
RIVAL THAT OF JANUARY 6-7 WHICH IRONICALLY WAS ALSO A MONDAY/TUESDAY
EVENT. FINE SNOWFLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG/WEST
OF HIGHWAY 131 BUT WILL STILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES AND ICY
ROAD CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LIFTS OUT... BUT MORE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS LIKELY AS CYCLONIC WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. WINDS
BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 23 TO 28
KNOTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS LIKELY.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING BUT
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL LIKELY TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY JUST THE MKG
AND GRR TERMINALS... WHERE AN INCREASE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS AT MKG AND GRR.
MEANWHILE SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN SNOW EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE TERMINAL
TONIGHT... WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT MKG AND GRR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
LITTLE QUESTION ON THE GALE WINDS FRIDAY BUT WHAT I THROUGH WE
WOULD ALSO NEED WAS A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SO I ADD THAT TO THE
HEADLINE MIX IN THE NEAR SHORE PRODUCTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
RIVERS LEVELS ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. STABLE
ICE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD
WEATHER. THE ICE JAM THREAT IS LOW AND THERE IS NO CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF ANY ICE JAMS ON THE RIVER NETWORK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ039-040-
045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
608 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
VERY BUSY SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH STRONG
NW WINDS RETURNING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.
STRONG WAA IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCE BY TEMPERATURES
THAT HAVE BE STEADILY RISING 2 TO 4 DEGREES PER HOUR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SINCE MIDNIGHT AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS DROPPING SE FROM NODAK/NW MN. ALTHOUGH
WE HAVE SEEN WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH AT TIMES IN WRN MN...WE
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THIS
IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT ANY BLOWABLE SNOW WAS BLOWN OUT OF THE AREA
WITH THE BLIZZARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS
OCCURRING...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...GOOD CALL
BY EARLIER SHIFTS NOT TO GO WITH ANOTHER BLIZZARD WARNING FOR LAST
NIGHT.
24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SRN CANADA HAVE
BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 30 AND 45 DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THE MPX CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY 2 TO 8 DEGS BELOW
ZERO...EVEN A 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE OF 40 DEGREES WOULD NET YOU HIGHS
OF 35 TO 40...WHICH IS WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND SW OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THESE FORECAST HIGHS MATCH
UP WELL WITH WHAT THE GEM AND ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED HIGHS HAVE FOR
TODAY...WHICH ARE THE PIECES OF GUIDANCE THAT HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
VERIFICATION THIS WINTER WHEN WE HAVE SEEN OUR OCCASIONAL WARM PUFFS
OF AIR.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST. WE HAVE SEEN A VERY NARROW BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOP WITH PRETTY HEALTHY SNOWFALL RATES /AS EVIDENCED
VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN TO 3/4SM/...BUT SNOW HAS BEEN ONLY LASTING
1 TO 2 HOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW BEING PICKED UP
AS THE BAND WORKS THROUGH. THE RAP/HRRR HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON
THE BAND THIS MORNING...SO USED THOSE MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE THIS
NARROW BAND THROUGH THE MPX CWA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE
TWIN CITIES...THIS SNOW BAND IS STILL IN STORE TO IMPACT THE METRO
BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THIS MORNING...SO WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOW MORNING
COMMUTE.
ROUND TWO OF SNOW TODAY WILL COME ABOUT 8 HOURS AFTER ROUND ONE AS
LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE HEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE MPX AREA BETWEEN 6PM AND MIDNIGHT.
HI-RES MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT PRECIP BLOSSOMING ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AROUND 21Z AND DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A REASON I MENTION PRECIP AND NOT SNOW. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW 925 MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 0Z COMING UP A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE MN RIVER AND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE SW CWA
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...IT MEANS P-TYPE IS AT
ISSUE. HAVE IT WARM ENOUGH TO GET ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF LAC QUI PARLE
AND WRN YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES...WITH A RA/SN MIX OUT TO THE MN
RIVER. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SNOW EVERYWHERE ELSE...BUT
QPF AMOUNTS AGAIN LOOK LIGHT...WITH ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY AGAIN FOR THE TWIN CITIES...THIS LIGHT SNOW
LOOKS TO START JUST IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE...THOUGH
HOPEFULLY TEMPERATURE UP CLOSE TO FREEZING WILL KEEP THINGS FLOWING
A LITTLE FASTER.
TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN...WITH NAM
BUFR SOUNDING SHOWING TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIXING AGAIN GOING OVER 40
KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE MN CWA AS CAA CREATES DEEP AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CERTAINLY WINDS LIKE THIS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...BUT DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR 3 REASONS. 1...AS WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE THIS
WINTER...THESE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MOISTEN UP THE
SNOWPACK...MAKING IT CONSIDERABLY LESS BLOWABLE. 2...AS WE SAW
OVERNIGHT...THE BLIZZARD WEDNESDAY BLEW CLEAR MOST OF THE SNOW THAT
COULD BE BLOWN AROUND AND WHAT WE ARE GETTING TODAY AND THIS EVENING
WILL NOT BE THE 25+:1 TYPE STUFF. 3...WITH A POTENTIALLY MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SITUATION SETTING UP ON SUNDAY...DID NOT WANT
TONIGHT TO LIMIT THE FOCUS ON THAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH FOR A BLIZZARD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR MN
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS
HIGH ON A DEEPENING CLIPPER MOVING FROM ND TO SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SNOW IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY
CWA WIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONE REAL INTERESTING CHANGE TONIGHT
IS THAT THE ECMWF IS NOW GENERATING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF A 700 MB LOW MOVING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL RESULT IN SNOW
SHOWERS...ADDING MORE FUEL TO THE FIRE. POPS WERE RAISED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA ON SUNDAY. THE GRIDS
ARE SET FOR A BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 55 MPH...IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE HIGHEST
ON SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 40 MPH STRETCHING FROM MONTEVIDEO TO ALBERT
LEA BY SUNDAY EVENING. COLLABORATION WITH OUR WESTERN NEIGHBORS WAS
TO HOLD OFF ON SUNDAY AT THIS POINT DUE TO WATCHES BEING ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WEST AND NORTH.
NO CHANGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO
THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE DAKOTAS. LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL BE
FROM 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL ONLY BE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. FACTOR IN THAT BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND AND WIND CHILL VALUES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE 40 TO 50 BELOW ZERO. HENCE... WIND
CHILL WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
THEN MET FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A VERY
BRUTAL PERIOD AHEAD.
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHES. SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW
ARE IN FOR THESE PERIODS. THE ECMWF IS ADAMANT THAT MORE ARCTIC
AIR WILL SURGE IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK/WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH WILL MAINLY IMPACT WRN WI...AS SNOW
REPORTS HAVE BEEN HARD TO COME BY WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES. EXPECT
A LONG BREAK IN SNOW UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE HRRR ALONG WITH
OTHER HI-RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP BREAKING OUT AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
MN AROUND 20Z OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SINK SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. 06Z TAFS HAD THIS TRENDED WELL...AND
ONLY REALLY DELAYED SNOW ONSET BY AN HOUR. CIGS ARE A BIT
PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING...AS STRONG SW WINDS ARE ALSO BRING WITH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. RAP WOULD SAY MVFR CIGS REMAIN TODAY NORTH OF
I-94...WHILE THE NAM JUST TAKES A BAND ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SNOW. GIVEN EXNTENSIVE MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN MN...WENT WITH THE
IDEA OF THE RAP...WITH THE NRN MN CIGS SLIDING SE INTO WRN WI
TODAY. HAVE TEMPO MVFR CONDS IN THE MORNING FOR THE I-94 TAFS IN
MN...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE LIGHT
SNOW STARTS TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOP. SHOULD
SEE A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. AS FOR
BLSN...COMBINATION OF BLOWABLE SNOW BLOWN AWAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY SHOULD LIMIT THE AM0UNT OF BLSN WE
SEE...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON BLSN MENTION IN TAFS.
KMSP...LOOKING LIKE MSP WILL LARGELY MISS OUT ON SNOW THIS MORNING
GIVEN LACK OF SNOW OBS MAKING INTO THE TWIN CITES. MSP WILL ALSO
BE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE CIGS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 020 FOR A TIME THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS MUCH
BETTER...WITH STRONG AGREEMENT ON ITS RETURN IN ALL GUIDANCE.
EXPECT A RAPID CLEARING THIS AS NW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS
BETWEEN 3Z AND 8Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MVFR/IFR -SN OVERNIGHT. WIND NW 10-15KTS BCMG W/SW LATE.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SN. WINDS S BECOMING NW AT 20G35KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10G15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
546 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
The large Arctic high will continue to sink southward away from
the region today while the next frontal system begins driving
southward into the northern Plains. In between the surface
pressure gradient will tighten up as will the height field,
resulting in rather strong winds through the lower trop. The
combination of this along with mixing will produce strong and
gusty southwest winds. Both MOS values and wind gusts from the
HRRR and RAP suggest winds will meet advisory criteria across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with
wind gusts of 40 kts possible. This regime is also favorable for a
good warm-up even with the very cold start, and have highs above
the MOS guidance.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
A nw flow shortwave and attendant ULJ will dig into the area
tonight sending another cold front through the region. As has been
the case recently, strong and gusty northwest winds will accompany
the front. Large scale ascent associated with the shortwave
appears sufficient to produce an area of light snow across
northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Currently it looks like
the St. Louis region will be on the western fringe of the snow
field. I have bumped up pops in the high chance to likely category
within the aforementioned zone, and anticipate amounts from a
dusting to less than an inch. We remain in cyclonic flow and
northwest winds on Saturday with temperatures expected to remain
below average. The temperature see-saw then continues on Sunday as
the weak high pressure ridge departs quickly on Saturday night
and we are well into low-level warm advection just after midnight.
Strong warm advection on Sunday and gusty southwest-west winds
once again suggest a good warm-up with highs getting well above
normal. Enjoy the "warmth" because it is all downhill after
Sunday. The next formidable Arctic front/blast comes roaring into
the region on Sunday night and the airmass with this front is the
coldest since the early January Arctic outbreak.
A large full latitude longwave trof will continue to dominate
central and eastern NOAM through the middle of next week keeping
very cold conditions locked in across the region. The models are
finally showing signs this blocky cold pattern breaking down and by
early February suggest a negative phase of the PNA pattern will
become established.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 546 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
As surface ridge moves off the south today, next system to
approach area from the north tightening the gradient. So will see
winds pickup and veer to the southwest this morning with gusts
near 35 kts at times, especially over central and northeast
Missouri as well as west central Illinois. Mid and high clouds to
be on the increase as system gets closer. Then winds to diminish
just a bit this evening before veering to the west to northwest
after 06z Saturday as frontal boundary moves through, but winds
will continue to gust to near 25kts at times. Cigs to lower to
low end vfr/high end mvfr as front moves through. Some light snow
is possible with this front, mainly along and east of Mississippi
River, so added mention to KUIN with flurries in metro area tafs.
Specifics for KSTL:
As surface ridge moves off the south today, next system to
approach area from the north tightening the gradient. So will see
winds pickup and veer to the southwest this morning with gusts
near 30 kts at times. Mid and high clouds to be on the increase as
system gets closer. Then winds to diminish just a bit by 03z
Saturday before veering to the northwest by 09z Saturday as frontal
boundary moves through, but winds will continue to gust to near
25kts at times. Cigs to lower to low end vfr as front moves
through. Some light snow is possible with this front, mainly east
of Mississippi River, so added mention of flurries in metro area
tafs.
Byrd
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
The previously coordinated and issued Red Flag Warning still
looks on target with strong and gusty southwest winds, very low
afternoon RH, and 10h fuel moisture below 9%. The only change was
to add a few more counties to the northwest of the previous area
due to warmer temps and lower RH, so now all of central, east
central, and southeast Missouri is under a Red Flag Warning.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-
Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St.
Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Today: Primary focus will be on strong wind potential and critical
fire danger (see FIRE WEATHER section below).
For the umpteenth time this month, yet another strong mid level gyre
will drop south from central Canada, replacing the arctic air with
increasingly mild conditions. Surface pressures which started out at
around 1044mb at 00Z, will crash to near 1014mb by 00Z this evening.
Aches and pains alert! Incredible 30mb/24-hour pressure falls,
coupled with 50-60 knot 925mb flow, will once again set the stage
for very windy conditions across the region. As has been the case
with the last several wind events, strong vertical mixing and
downward momentum transfer will contribute to very strong gusts that
will be well above what is "typically" expected for forecast
sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph. Other than scattered mid cloud,
ample sunshine should help realize nearly maximum gust potential,
with the RAP and HRRR both suggesting widespread gusts exceeding 40
knots from late morning through mid afternoon, as the pressure wave
pushes southeast. Have collaborated a wind advisory which will run
from 10AM through 2PM across far NW MO/NE KS, and through 6PM across
most of west central/central/northeast MO into far eastern Kansas.
Despite the southwest winds, warm advection will lag quite a bit,
with most of the diurnal temperature boost coming in the 11AM-3PM
time frame. As a result, another very cold start expected this
morning with wind chills in the -5 to -10F range as the kids head to
the bus stop.
Tonight-Saturday:
Deep mixing will keep temperatures relatively mild tonight with lows
running some 20 degrees warmer than this morning. A few flurries to a
light dusting of snow could glance the far NE counties, but the bulk
of any very minor accumulations should once again fall well east of
the region as the strongest mid level ascent shifts into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Weak cyclonic flow and cloud cover beneath and intense upper jet will
lend to a challenging temperature forecast Saturday. High
temperatures will range some 15-20 degrees from the upper 20s near
Kirksville to the mid 40s across west central MO, and the gradient
magnitude varies considerably among the 00Z models.
Sunday-Sunday Night:
Low level temps will steadily warm Saturday night and early Sunday
ahead of the next arctic blast. 925mb temps could reach +10C,
suggesting that temperatures will likely reach the low-mid 50s across
all but far nrn MO before frontal passage late in the afternoon.
Definitely the mildest day in the coming week. In a reversal of
fortune so to speak, surface pressures will increase 30mb from 12Z
Sunday to 12Z Monday, coincident with a strong arctic blast trailing
yet another Canadian Clipper. Temperatures will plummet some 45 to 50
degrees from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning, and I would not be
surprised to see wind gusts again in the 30-40 mph range Sunday
evening. (Need to do some research as I cannot ever recall this
magnitude of wind in January across Missouri).
Monday-Thursday:
See no change in the overall upper flow pattern to round out the end
of the month. Above average confidence in little to no measurable
precipitation, and above average confidence in much below normal
temperatures Monday/Tuesday, then trending back toward normal
Wednesday/Thursday ahead of the next closed low in the sequence
dropping south through the Canadian Prairies.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected along and south of a
St. Joseph to Carrollton to Moberly line from late morning through
mid afternoon.
Early morning observations show a very dry boundary layer in place
with dewpoints in the single digits below zero. Very little moderate
of this airmass is expected as temperatures steadily warm into the
upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, yielding relative humidity
values between 18 and 25%. The very dry airmass and 10-hour fuel
stick moistures of 7-8% will contribute to a very volatile setup as
southwest winds increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
Given the potential for rapid grassland fire spread, a red flag
warning remains in effect from 10AM thru 8PM for the aforementioned
areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Low level wind shear will continue for the next couple of hours (SE
50 knots at 2Kft AGL), until stronger winds begin to mix down to the
surface by mid morning. Already seeing the beginning of that with
20-25 knot gusts across NW MO.
Conservatively could see winds gust 30 to 35 knots during the late
morning and most of the afternoon, and would not be surprised to see
a few gusts in the 40 to 45 knot range, especially where favored at
MCI.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period with patches
of mid-high cloud today.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this
evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this
afternoon FOR KSZ025-102.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this
evening FOR MOZ020>022-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR MOZ008-017-021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this
afternoon FOR MOZ001>007-011>016-020.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...Bookbinder
FIRE WEATHER...Bookbinder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
425 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
The large Arctic high will continue to sink southward away from
the region today while the next frontal system begins driving
southward into the northern Plains. In between the surface
pressure gradient will tighten up as will the height field,
resulting in rather strong winds through the lower trop. The
combination of this along with mixing will produce strong and
gusty southwest winds. Both MOS values and wind gusts from the
HRRR and RAP suggest winds will meet advisory criteria across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with
wind gusts of 40 kts possible. This regime is also favorable for a
good warm-up even with the very cold start, and have highs above
the MOS guidance.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
A nw flow shortwave and attendant ULJ will dig into the area
tonight sending another cold front through the region. As has been
the case recently, strong and gusty northwest winds will accompany
the front. Large scale ascent associated with the shortwave
appears sufficient to produce an area of light snow across
northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Currently it looks like
the St. Louis region will be on the western fringe of the snow
field. I have bumped up pops in the high chance to likely category
within the aforementioned zone, and anticipate amounts from a
dusting to less than an inch. We remain in cyclonic flow and
northwest winds on Saturday with temperatures expected to remain
below average. The temperature see-saw then continues on Sunday as
the weak high pressure ridge departs quickly on Saturday night
and we are well into low-level warm advection just after midnight.
Strong warm advection on Sunday and gusty southwest-west winds
once again suggest a good warm-up with highs getting well above
normal. Enjoy the "warmth" because it is all downhill after
Sunday. The next formidable Arctic front/blast comes roaring into
the region on Sunday night and the airmass with this front is the
coldest since the early January Arctic outbreak.
A large full latitude longwave trof will continue to dominate
central and eastern NOAM through the middle of next week keeping
very cold conditions locked in across the region. The models are
finally showing signs this blocky cold pattern breaking down and by
early February suggest a negative phase of the PNA pattern will
become established.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2014
VFR fcst with sfc ridge settling south into TX tonight. Main story
will be the gusty SSW winds on Friday. Winds are in the process of
going sthrly tonight. All model guidance indicates 40 to 60 kts
of wind just a couple thousand feet off the ground. Some of this
is fcst to mix to the sfc. The pressure gradient also increases
significantly tomorrow. This means sustained wind near 20 kts with
gusts 30 to 35kts. This could lead to crosswind concerns on certain
runway configurations. Removed the mention of LLWS except at KCPS
and KSUS. Think that the threat remains marginal as the winds
aloft arrive just before mixing begins. I think there may still be
a brief window of a couple hrs as mixing is delayed due to the
location of the arpts in river valleys. Otherwise...expect an
increase in mid/high level cloudiness and continued gusty winds.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR fcst with the main concern gusty SSW winds. This will likley
become a crosswind concern later Friday morning and continuing
thru the rest of the day. Winds eventually will become NW by
Saturday morning. I removed the mention of LLWS as the window of
opportunity looks too narrow on the order of a couple hrs. The
stronger winds aloft arrive just before mixing begins.
2%
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
The previously coordinated and issued Red Flag Warning still
looks on target with strong and gusty southwest winds, very low
afternoon RH, and 10h fuel moisture below 9%. The only change was
to add a few more counties to the northwest of the previous area
due to warmer temps and lower RH, so now all of central, east
central, and southeast Missouri is under a Red Flag Warning.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-
Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St.
Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
520 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID STATE.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE FIRST 18
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CEILINGS IMPACT KCKV
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF
PERIOD AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KCKV. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 12Z.
SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS
FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS SURFACE HIGH
SINKS FARTHER SOUTH OF TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS DIVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
AREAS. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AROUND 850
MBARS ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH WINDS JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO TURN WESTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA. LATEST RUC SOUNDING SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. I/R SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS
FIBRATUS SCOOTING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA ASSOCIATED
WITH 160 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 20S AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPING AM EXPECTING
TEMPS TONIGHT TO ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS PRESENTS KNOWN HERE IN THE MID STATE
AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CONTINUING EAST
OF INTERSTATE 24 SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A HALF INCH
ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ITS NOT AS
COLD BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AS PREVIOUS CLIPPERS. SURFACE HIGH
QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AROUND 50 MANY AREAS WITH MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE PLATEAU.
A STRONGER CLIPPER COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN
ONCE AGAIN. THE WORK WEEK LOOKS COLD AND SOMEWHAT A REPEAT OF WHAT
WE JUST HAD. LOOKING FARTHER OUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PATTERN
CHANGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET BECOMES
DOMINATE. THIS BEGINS TO SHOW UP ON THE EURO BY THE 31ST OF
JANUARY AND CONTINUES PAST GROUNDHOG DAY. LETS HOPE ITS A CLOUDY
DAY WHEN HE EMERGES FROM HIS BURROW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011-
032>034-065-066-078>080.
&&
$$
TB12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
739 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
DROPPING WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED SO WILL DROP THE ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. WILL LET THE WSW CONTINUE DEPITE THE DWINDLING THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP. ROADS ARE ICY EVERYWHERE AND FEEL IT IS
BEST JUST TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. MARINE DISCUSSION INCLUDED
AS WELL.
40
AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS WERE ENDING THE PRECIP OVER KCLL AND KUTS. THINK THAT
THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR ICE PELLETS
THROUGH 13Z. TRENDED THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP AT KCXO AND KIAH.
WAS LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP FROM KHOU AND
KSGR TO THE COAST. RADAR INDICATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS CONTINUING
TO GENERATE PRECIP WELL WEST OF KLBX. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
FREEZING THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE LATE MORNING. THE MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THESE
TWO SITES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND EARLY THIS EVENING TOWARD THE COAST.
40
MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS LOOK LIKELY FROM
MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLDSPRING. QUITE A LULL IN PRECIP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO
THE REGION AND RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES WILL START
TO FREEZE. TXDOT IS REPORTING ICE ON MANY ROADS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND THIS APPEARS TO BE BACKED UP BY RADAR WHICH
SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WILL PROBABLY NOT MEET WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA
BUT DON`T SEE THE SENSE IN SWITCHING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. WILL RE-EVALUATE AT 12Z ONCE THE MORNING SOUNDINGS
COME IN...BUT FEEL THE WSW COULD BE DROPPED BY 15Z. DON`T BE
SURPRISED IF AN UPDATED FORECAST IS ISSUED BETWEEN 6-7 AM.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING FROM THE TOP SO SNOW NORTH OF HOUSTON
WILL LOSE THEIR ICE CRYSTALS AND PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO ICE
PELLETS OR FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...06Z SOUNDING LAUNCHED AT
THE UNIV OF HOUSTON SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH A WARM NOSE
BETWEEN 900-700 MB AND A SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM 900 MB TO NEAR
1000 MB. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE WILL AFFECT HOUSTON METRO
AREAS FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE ENDING. THE STRONG RRQ WHICH
HAS ENHANCED LIFT IS PULLING AWAY AND OMEGA WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY
THIS MORNING SO FEEL MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END EARLY
THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS CLOUDY ALL DAY SO DON`T
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL RELAX LATER TODAY. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
COAST THRU 15Z BUT THE TREND IS FOR WINDS TO RELAX THIS MORNING.
WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SAT/SUN AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED 60
DEGREES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S TUES/WED MORNING
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS
ARE DRY WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHILE THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 37 29 59 40 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 36 31 59 42 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 37 37 55 48 64 / 40 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. MARINE DISCUSSION INCLUDED
AS WELL.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS WERE ENDING THE PRECIP OVER KCLL AND KUTS. THINK THAT
THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR ICE PELLETS
THROUGH 13Z. TRENDED THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP AT KCXO AND KIAH.
WAS LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP FROM KHOU AND
KSGR TO THE COAST. RADAR INDICATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS CONTINUING
TO GENERATE PRECIP WELL WEST OF KLBX. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
FREEZING THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE LATE MORNING. THE MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THESE
TWO SITES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND EARLY THIS EVENING TOWARD THE COAST.
40
&&
.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS LOOK LIKELY FROM
MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLDSPRING. QUITE A LULL IN PRECIP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO
THE REGION AND RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES WILL START
TO FREEZE. TXDOT IS REPORTING ICE ON MANY ROADS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND THIS APPEARS TO BE BACKED UP BY RADAR WHICH
SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WILL PROBABLY NOT MEET WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA
BUT DON`T SEE THE SENSE IN SWITCHING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. WILL RE-EVALUATE AT 12Z ONCE THE MORNING SOUNDINGS
COME IN...BUT FEEL THE WSW COULD BE DROPPED BY 15Z. DON`T BE
SURPRISED IF AN UPDATED FORECAST IS ISSUED BETWEEN 6-7 AM.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING FROM THE TOP SO SNOW NORTH OF HOUSTON
WILL LOSE THEIR ICE CRYSTALS AND PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO ICE
PELLETS OR FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...06Z SOUNDING LAUNCHED AT
THE UNIV OF HOUSTON SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH A WARM NOSE
BETWEEN 900-700 MB AND A SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM 900 MB TO NEAR
1000 MB. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE WILL AFFECT HOUSTON METRO
AREAS FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE ENDING. THE STRONG RRQ WHICH
HAS ENHANCED LIFT IS PULLING AWAY AND OMEGA WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY
THIS MORNING SO FEEL MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END EARLY
THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS CLOUDY ALL DAY SO DON`T
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL RELAX LATER TODAY. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
COAST THRU 15Z BUT THE TREND IS FOR WINDS TO RELAX THIS MORNING.
WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SAT/SUN AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED 60
DEGREES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S TUES/WED MORNING
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS
ARE DRY WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHILE THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 37 29 59 40 67 / 40 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 36 31 59 42 67 / 70 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 37 37 55 48 64 / 70 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: FORT BEND...HARRIS...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH STALLED AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
GENERALLY TREATED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST RIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOSING SOME OF THAT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT
ENHANCEMENT TO THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THAT TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY SLOWLY RELAX TO NORMAL DIURNAL
TRENDS BY TOMORROW.
THAT SNEAKY LITTLE TROPICALLY INFLUENCED IMPULSE ROTATING UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST NOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN BAJA WITH SOME MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT JUST AHEAD OF IT INTO NORTHERN SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THE .44 PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING
WILL PUSH INTO THE .55 RANGE THIS EVENING...MAYBE A TOUCH HIGHER
OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODEL LAYERED MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
BRIEFLY DEEPEN THE MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS FOR BORDER
AREAS. WEAK ECHOES FILLING IN ON THE RADAR AS THIS OCCURS BUT
NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND YET. LATEST HRRR 3KM HAS LIGHT SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND 6-7PM WITH VIRGA AND
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TUCSON AREA AROUND
10-11PM. STILL LOOKING FOR UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE (TRACE
- .03) IN SOUTHERN AREAS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE (LIKE TUCSON).
SOME CLEARING SATURDAY FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...HELPED BY A
SECONDARY WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WRAPPING A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA. NOT MUCH LEFT OF THE COOLER AIR THAT
WORKED INTO EASTERN AREAS FROM THE EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR MANY
AREAS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES UNTIL SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A
BROADER SCALED SPLIT MEAN TROUGH POSITION THROUGH THE CONUS BUCKLING
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE (THE PORTION PROTECTING US) AROUND NEXT
WEEKEND TO START FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z. SCT-BKN120 OVC200...AFT 25/06Z
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL AND OVC CLOUDS AOA 15K FT AGL...THEN
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL
AFTER 25/18Z. ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND OF 10-16 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS UNTIL 25/03Z. SURFACE WIND DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 25/08Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL EASE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY. WINDS FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD WILL BE DIURNAL IN DIRECTION WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
WESTERLIES BEING A BIT STRONGER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COOLER TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF THINGS GOING ON THIS MORNING. FIRST IS THE
DECAYING AND STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN AREAS THIS
MORNING WITH COOLER AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM NEW MEXICO. GUSTY
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. SO FAR THE FORECAST HANDLES THIS PRETTY WELL WITH BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY IN SPOTS BUT BELOW ANY ADVISORY LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A TREND OUT WEST BUT THE 6-10
DEGREES OF COOLING IN EASTERN AREAS SEEMS GOOD AS LONG AS THINGS
DON`T WASH OUT TOO MUCH. TUCSON IN BETWEEN...STILL SEEMS LIKE A
DECENT BET TO KNOCK 1-4 DEGREES OFF OF YESTERDAY`S LOWER 70S AT TIA.
SECONDLY...WE HAVE A WEAK TROPICALLY INFLUENCED IMPULSE ROTATING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA
LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODEL LAYERED MOISTURE
FIELDS CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY DEEPEN THE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BORDER TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR 3KM HAS LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND 01Z WITH VIRGA AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS THE GREEN VALLEY AREA AROUND 03Z. DON`T
EXPECT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWARD PROGRESS THAN MAYBE TUCSON AND THE
CATALINAS SO WE`LL KEEP THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS FAR NORTH AS THE
GREATER TUCSON AREA TONIGHT. AFTER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THESE TRENDS WELL. STILL LOOKING FOR UP TO A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE (TRACE - .02) IN SOUTHERN AREAS AND
MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE (LIKE TUCSON). I GUESS
ANY PRECIP IS WORTH MENTIONING WHEN YOU HAVE BEEN DRY FOR OVER A
MONTH DURING YOUR SECONDARY WET SEASON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THIS MORNING. LATEST MODELS SHOWED THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING BY SATURDAY FOR LESS WIND. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY...DAYTIME READINGS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK UNDER THE DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8K-12K FT AGL AND OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K
FT AGL THRU 25/12Z...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AFTER 25/18Z. ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND OF
12-20 KTS AND GUSTS OF 22-30 KTS UNTIL 24/23Z. SURFACE WIND
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 25/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. SOME WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER
THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. AFTER
TODAY...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. A
FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...OVERALL...CURRENT FORECASTS ON TRACK. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG FOOTHILLS AND HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME... HIGHEST GUSTS WERE
AROUND 30 MPH. 1500M PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM GRAND JUNCTION TO
DENVER HAS INCREASED TO 10.36 MB...UP FROM 9.17 MB AT 15Z. WEAK
MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION AND MOUNTAIN WAVE CREATING THE GUSTY WINDS.
MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN INTO THE EVENING...SO THE
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST RAP SPATIAL CROSS SECTION
INDICATING CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW OF AROUND 25 KTS...SO ANY THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS IS LOW. RAP AND HRRR SHOW GUST POTENTIAL OF 40-45 KTS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SO SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN WIND PRONE
AREAS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF BLOWING
SNOW IN OPEN AREAS WITH THE RECENT SNOW FROM YESTERDAY. FOR NOW
WILL JUST COVER IN NOWCASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME MIXING AND
INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. THERE MAY BE SOME BLOWING SNOW THERE AS
WELL...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST WITH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY TODAY...TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE 40S ALONG AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH 30S MOST AREAS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE PLAINS. LAGGING BEHIND ARE LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS FROM GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
TO MORE OF A WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY 19Z. POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20
KTS WITH PERHAPS 30 KTS AT KBJC. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUGGESTING
LIGHTER WINDS BY 20Z AT KDEN AND KAPA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING EXPECTED...NOT SURE ABOUT THE
SOUTHEASTERLIES OCCURRING EVEN WITH THE SNOW COVER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF THE CURRENT TAFS...AND MONITOR FOR ANY WIND SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...STILL LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12000 FEET
AGL. CEILINGS AS LOW AS 6000 FEET AGL LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS
POINT. DRAINAGE TO DEVELOP BY 02Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2014/
SHORT TERM...WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITH READINGS RISING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE KICKED IN. THERE IS A MEAN STATE
CRITICAL LAYER IN PLACE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF
GUSTY MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS IN AND RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT IS ONLY ABOUT 25-30 KTS
SO DONT SEE ANY HIGH WIND THREAT AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE BOOSTED
WIND FORECAST A LITTLE MORE. THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY POWDERY SNOW
FROM YESTERDAY COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN OPEN AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 93 AND POINTS CLOSER
TO THE WYOMING BORDER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO SNOW COVER...SHALLOW
STRONG INVERSIONS...AND AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS
TIME... EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SCOUR OUT WITH INCREASING WINDS
DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE A CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IN LOW LYING AREAS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE GREELEY-FORT
MORGAN CORRIDOR AND THEN DOWN INTO LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE NOT SURE
IF INVERSIONS WILL BREAK WITH SNOW COVER.
ALSO EXPECT A DECENT WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SPILLING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. MAY EVEN SEE A LITTLE
VIRGA CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AND A RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW ANY GUSTY WINDS TO DECREASE IN THE
EVENING.
LONG TERM...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
AS WARM AIR UNDER THE LARGE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
STATE. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY...BUT NOT QUITE
AS WARM AS SATURDAY. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE DROPPING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS YIELDING TO AN
ARCTIC INTRUSION DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
TRANSITIONAL AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND COLD AIR BEGINS POURING INTO THE STATE. ALOFT...STRONG
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FRONTOGENESIS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE STRENGTHENING COLD
FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A LARGE BAND OF
SNOWFALL THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THEN THE BIG STORY ON MONDAY IS GOING TO BE THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS OR LOWER 20S AS THE SNOWFALL CONTINUES. TUESDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD DAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST
FLOW REMAINS OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STILL BE OVER
THE STATE...BUT MAY BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING THE
BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN. EACH OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION
THROUGH TUESDAY.
LESS AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES
SEEM THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS GOING TO BE UNDERCUT BY SOME ZONAL
FLOW OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW PRODUCTION
GOING WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PLAINS LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER WITH MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
AROUND CLIMATOLOGY...IF NOT A LITTLE WARMER.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. ENHANCED
DRAINAGE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY
TRANSITION MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AT KDEN AND KAPA BY 18Z-20Z. KBJC
COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS. MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK ABOVE 12000 FEET EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL CEILINGS AS
LOW AS 6000 FT AGL COULD OCCUR JUST EAST OF KDEN FROM 17Z-03Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1201 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
STRONG WAA LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HELPING
TO PUSH MAX TEMPS ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPS. THE LATEST ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST WITH
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND HAS BEEN THE
BEST GUIDANCE LATELY WITH THESE QUICK ONE DAY WARM-UPS. IF MIXED
TO JUST 900MB...TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY WHICH RESULTED IN WARMING TEMPS UP 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO MIX SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH BETTER
SUNSHINE...SO WIND GUSTS MAY TEETER ON ADVISORY LEVEL FOR A SHORT
TIME FRAME LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A QUICK SHOT OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN TIERS OF FORECAST THRU 18Z. HIRES ARW/NMM
WRF MODELS BARELY HAVE ANY PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THE LATEST HOPWRF (24.06Z) AND HRRR (24.06Z) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THEM. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING FROM 13-17Z AND
KEPT MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE HIRES
ARW/NMM WRF MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA
BY 22Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. SO WENT DRY 18Z TO 21Z AND CONFINED POPS TO
THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF IOWA COUNTIES. MCW SOUNDING QUICKLY
BECOMES DEEPLY SATURATED BY AROUND 00Z AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SNOW/RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST...AS
SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW MELT PRIOR TO
REACHING THE GROUND.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
WEATHER WILL BE VERY ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT HEADLINE EVENTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...INCLUDING WHAT MAY
BE A BLIZZARD LATE SUNDAY. INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...WHICH WILL NOT
BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...SHOULD BE ENTERING NRN IA AT BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS HUDSON BAY LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DEEP BUT SOMEWHAT PATCHY WITH
NAM LIFT MORE BULLISH THAN GFS OR ECMWF. WITH FAST MOVEMENT AND
FOLLOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...ANY UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FLEETING.
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER SOLUTIONS BRING MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE OR AT
LEAST NEAR THE FREEZING MARK MAKING THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE RAIN
SW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER NORTHEAST. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL
ALSO RAISE LOWEST 1KM TEMPS HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW RATIOS SO ONLY
EXPECT ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS FAR NORTHEAST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN FOLLOW SAT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
AND COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN LITTLE DIURNAL REBOUND. IN
FACT...NON-DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MAKE HIGHS AND LOWS PROBLEMATIC WITH LOWER/RISING TEMPS AT TIMES
CENTERED AROUND DAYS/NIGHTS RESPECTIVELY. ATTENTION WILL THEN
QUICKLY TURN UPSTREAM WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP NW-SE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
DEEP...AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DECENT KINEMATIC LIFT...IT
SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY STRONG AND IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
/THETA-E ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS/. THIS DEEP LIFT AND COOLER
COLUMN TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN TONIGHT...WELL
INTO THE TEENS. RATIOS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...OVER 20...BUT THE
MAX LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE 1-2KM AND MAINLY BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED RATIOS AND FAST
SYSTEM MOVEMENT...LIKELY SNOWING LESS THAN SIX HOURS AT ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION...SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN THE FAR NE CORNERS AS WELL
/MASON CITY/WATERLOO NORTH/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT THE GREATEST
ON AMOUNTS HOWEVER AS ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED THEIR
SNOW AXIS EMPHASIS. ECMWF NOW EMPHASIZES MORE NELY TRACK.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE BIG IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACTS NOT SEEN UNTIL SUN AND SUN EVENING. MAY SEE
SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS...BUT LARGER PROBLEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND A BIG
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY
DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS OFTEN 40-55KTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH. NO HEADLINES AS OF YET
IN THIS PERIOD...BUT OPTIONS MAY ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM WIND
ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS TO FULL FLEDGED BLIZZARD WARNINGS IF
FORECASTED SNOWFALL DEVELOPS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOMEWHAT OF A WORSE CASE SCENARIO WITH A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS INTO MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS NE WILL REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH...READINGS MAY SURGE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK NW-SE ALONG
THE SWRN FRINGE OF SNOW ACCUMS WITH SOME MINOR MELTING FOLLOWED BY A
FLASH FREEZE WITH SHARP TEMP DROP LATER IN THE EVENING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER ARCTIC COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ISSUES AND CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW NE HALF.
SERIOUS...LIFE THREATENING TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NE HALF
MON MORNING. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TO MAKE ANY
HEADWAY...ASSUMING FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS OF COURSE. THIS WOULD BE
COINCIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 45 BELOW. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
PATTERN INTO TUE...AND PERSISTENT NWLY WINDS...TEMPS AT MASON CITY
FOR INSTANCE MAY NOT TOP ZERO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT
IN A 30 HOUR PERIOD WITH AT LEAST MINOR BLOWING SNOW AND WARNING
CRITERIA WIND CHILLS /-30F/. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WILL NEED CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD WITH CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS SOMEWHAT MORE INACTIVE
THANKFULLY WITH ONLY PRECIP WINDOW AROUND WED NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO
ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS A LOBE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z SAT. WINDS GENERALLY TO STAY IN THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE AND GUSTS TO IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. STARTING
AROUND 22Z FRI...WINTRY PRECIP WILL START OVER NORTHERN TAF
SITES...REACHING BOTH KDSM AND KALO BY AROUND 23Z AND KOTM BY 01Z
SAT. KMCW AND KALO WILL HAVE -SN...KFOD -RASN...AND BOTH KDSM AND
KOTM -RN. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO KALO
AND KMCW DURING PERIODS OF SNOW. CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AS
PRECIP MOVES IN. SKIES CLEARING BY 12Z SAT FOR ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1243 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH OR MORE WILL BECOME LIKELY. THIS WIND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH RECENT SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BECOME WORSE THIS AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT ON
SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA
ALONG WITH MORE WIND AND COLD AIR. THIS COULD PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF
IMPACT TO THE AREA WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. MORE
COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT WILL RULE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE LAKE ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW
SNOW EVENT IS STARTING TO INCREASE AND SHOULD BE GOING STRONG
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM. THERE MAY BE A SORT OF LULL FOR A FEW HOURS
THEN THE MORE SYNOPTIC PART OF THE STORM KICKS IN AROUND 7 PM AND
SHOULD GO TILL AROUND 6 AM. IT DURING THAT TIME MOST OF THE
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR.
AS OF 10 AM WE HAVE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW OVER MOST OF
OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AND BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW NORTH OF
THERE. AS THE WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE SO I
EXPECT OVERALL THE WIND CHILLS TO WARM SOME...BEING IN THE 0 TO 10
BELOW RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOW THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES WILL HAVE 50
TO 55 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER (3000 FT IN DEPTH) FROM 1 PM TILL 5
PM THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH RANGE MKG...GRR AND
BIV HAVE VISIBILITIES UNDER 3 MILES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ONCE
THE SNOW RATES INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR
40 MPH WE WILL BE SEEING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF WE NEED TO UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING...
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT STILL SEEMS TO ME WE CAN GO AHEAD WITH THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE.
ONE OTHER ISSUE TO ADDRESS LATER IS THE LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THE
STORM SATURDAY. I COULD SEE EXPANDED THE WARNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF US-131.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVENT EXPECTED FOR
TODAY INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES
TO THE HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA AS
CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.
THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN THIS
MORNING. RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT HAS DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES AS THE
UPPER JET IS SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. CLOUDS HOLDING IN THUS FAR HAVE KEPT TEMPS AND RESULTING WIND
CHILLS IN CHECK. WE DO EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS CLEARING FROM THE S WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE SE WITH THE
FLOW GOING SW. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP AND DRIVE THE WIND CHILLS
DOWN THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND REALLY GET CRANKING
AROUND MID MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR CENTERED
AROUND 18Z +/- A COUPLE OF HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. THESE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WHILE
LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS FALLING THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING. HOW MUCH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SNOW
STARTS FALLING IS UNCERTAIN. THIS IS ONE REASON WE ARE HOLDING OFF
ON A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP UP
NORTH WITH THE BETTER WINDS STILL IN PLACE...SO THE WARNING AREA UP
NORTH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED A BIT CLOSER.
THE WORST BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL OCCUR WHILE THE WINDS ARE
STILL UP THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THE SNOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SNOW PORTION OF THE EVENT WILL BE A COMBINATION OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH DELTA T/S EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS C BY THAT TIME. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
FAIRLY ROBUST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA LIKELY
DUE TO THE WINDS COMING OFF OF THE LAKE AND DUE TO THE FLOW AND THE
CONTOUR OF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
BANDS SIMILAR TO THE EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE DGZ IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HELP WITH ACCUMS. THIS
PART OF THE EVENT WILL HELP THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA SEE THE
HIGHEST ACCUMS DURING THE EVENT.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS EVENING...AND THE THE CWFA WILL BE PLACED UNDER THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER JET DIVING IN WHICH WILL HELP ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE. BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE WINDS AND GUST
POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE CORE OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
THE SNOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE CWFA BY 12Z SAT...LEAVING LAKE EFFECT IN ITS WAKE. THE UPPER JET
WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...ALLOWING FOR DECENT
INVERSION HTS/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ACROSS THE NW AND SW
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WITH MEAN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED. LAKE
EFFECT WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS
NORTH AND WE SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD OVERHEAD. SAT NIGHT COULD
BE A COLD NIGHT INLAND WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
MORE HIGH IMPACT/HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW....AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.
SCHOOL/BUSINESS CLOSURES ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WHERE FREQUENT WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL APPEAR LIKELY AGAIN.
THE NEXT CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GRTLKS REGION ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
PLACEMENT/COVERAGE OF HIGHEST SYNOPTIC SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH HOWEVER IN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF
BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
RIVAL THAT OF JANUARY 6-7 WHICH IRONICALLY WAS ALSO A MONDAY/TUESDAY
EVENT. FINE SNOWFLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG/WEST
OF HIGHWAY 131 BUT WILL STILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES AND ICY
ROAD CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LIFTS OUT... BUT MORE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS LIKELY AS CYCLONIC WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
ALSO FALL AT KMKG/KGRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES. VSBYS WILL BE LOWEST AT KMKG. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE A
LULL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. CIGS/VSBYS
WILL FALL MID EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
LITTLE QUESTION ON THE GALE WINDS FRIDAY BUT WHAT I THROUGH WE
WOULD ALSO NEED WAS A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SO I ADD THAT TO THE
HEADLINE MIX IN THE NEAR SHORE PRODUCTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
RIVERS LEVELS ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. STABLE
ICE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD
WEATHER. THE ICE JAM THREAT IS LOW AND THERE IS NO CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF ANY ICE JAMS ON THE RIVER NETWORK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ039-040-
045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1201 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
Going forecasts still looking pretty good for this
afternoon. Strong winds and low RH values are the primary concerns
for the FA, and area/timing of going headlines still appear to be
on the mark. Only real concern regarding sensible weather trends
is temperatures, which appear to be warming slower than initially
expected. Given the depth of the cold air that the mixing is
trying to erode we may be a bit too warm on afternoon max temps,
but given very favorable synoptic setup for a pronounced warmup am
hesitant to make too much of a downward adjustment at this time.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
The large Arctic high will continue to sink southward away from
the region today while the next frontal system begins driving
southward into the northern Plains. In between the surface
pressure gradient will tighten up as will the height field,
resulting in rather strong winds through the lower trop. The
combination of this along with mixing will produce strong and
gusty southwest winds. Both MOS values and wind gusts from the
HRRR and RAP suggest winds will meet advisory criteria across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with
wind gusts of 40 kts possible. This regime is also favorable for a
good warm-up even with the very cold start, and have highs above
the MOS guidance.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
A nw flow shortwave and attendant ULJ will dig into the area
tonight sending another cold front through the region. As has been
the case recently, strong and gusty northwest winds will accompany
the front. Large scale ascent associated with the shortwave
appears sufficient to produce an area of light snow across
northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Currently it looks like
the St. Louis region will be on the western fringe of the snow
field. I have bumped up pops in the high chance to likely category
within the aforementioned zone, and anticipate amounts from a
dusting to less than an inch. We remain in cyclonic flow and
northwest winds on Saturday with temperatures expected to remain
below average. The temperature see-saw then continues on Sunday as
the weak high pressure ridge departs quickly on Saturday night
and we are well into low-level warm advection just after midnight.
Strong warm advection on Sunday and gusty southwest-west winds
once again suggest a good warm-up with highs getting well above
normal. Enjoy the "warmth" because it is all downhill after
Sunday. The next formidable Arctic front/blast comes roaring into
the region on Sunday night and the airmass with this front is the
coldest since the early January Arctic outbreak.
A large full latitude longwave trof will continue to dominate
central and eastern NOAM through the middle of next week keeping
very cold conditions locked in across the region. The models are
finally showing signs this blocky cold pattern breaking down and by
early February suggest a negative phase of the PNA pattern will
become established.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
Strong surface winds will highlight this TAF period...with intense
SW winds this afternoon transitioning to the NW late tonight and
Saturday morning with a passage of yet another fast moving cold front.
Core of highest winds this afternoon should be along the COU/UIN
corridor, with frequent gusts in the 30-35kt range. Cloud will be
limited to the mid and high levels this afternoon (aoa 10kft), but
will lower this evening as the cold front presses into the region.
Believe much of this cloudiness will remain in the VFR cat
(3-5kft), but areas of snow clipping the Mississippi River will
produce briefly lower conditions (MVFR/IFR), primarily at UIN and
just east of STL metro.
Specifics for KSTL: Into the early evening forecast will be
dominated by SW surface winds (210-230 degrees) gusting to near
30kts along with patches of mid and high level cloudiness. Winds
will veer overnight as cold front moves in, which should also be
accompanied by ceilings lowering to the 3-5kft range. Have
continued mention of flurries for a few predawn hours, but latest
short range guidance is suggesting that bulk of the snow...and the
lowest conditions...will be occurring just northeast or east of
STL.
Truett
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
Although have made minor tweeks to winds, temps, and dewpoints/RH,
timing and area of Red Flag Warning which covers central, east
central and southeast Missouri still looks very good. If
temperatures don`t warm as much as expected a few of the eastern
fringe areas may not reach the critical RH below 25%, but at this
point, but for reasons noted in short range AFD discussion no
major adjustments made at this time.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin
MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-
St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis
MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau
MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby
MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Today: Primary focus will be on strong wind potential and critical
fire danger (see FIRE WEATHER section below).
For the umpteenth time this month, yet another strong mid level gyre
will drop south from central Canada, replacing the arctic air with
increasingly mild conditions. Surface pressures which started out at
around 1044mb at 00Z, will crash to near 1014mb by 00Z this evening.
Aches and pains alert! Incredible 30mb/24-hour pressure falls,
coupled with 50-60 knot 925mb flow, will once again set the stage
for very windy conditions across the region. As has been the case
with the last several wind events, strong vertical mixing and
downward momentum transfer will contribute to very strong gusts that
will be well above what is "typically" expected for forecast
sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph. Other than scattered mid cloud,
ample sunshine should help realize nearly maximum gust potential,
with the RAP and HRRR both suggesting widespread gusts exceeding 40
knots from late morning through mid afternoon, as the pressure wave
pushes southeast. Have collaborated a wind advisory which will run
from 10AM through 2PM across far NW MO/NE KS, and through 6PM across
most of west central/central/northeast MO into far eastern Kansas.
Despite the southwest winds, warm advection will lag quite a bit,
with most of the diurnal temperature boost coming in the 11AM-3PM
time frame. As a result, another very cold start expected this
morning with wind chills in the -5 to -10F range as the kids head to
the bus stop.
Tonight-Saturday:
Deep mixing will keep temperatures relatively mild tonight with lows
running some 20 degrees warmer than this morning. A few flurries to a
light dusting of snow could glance the far NE counties, but the bulk
of any very minor accumulations should once again fall well east of
the region as the strongest mid level ascent shifts into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Weak cyclonic flow and cloud cover beneath and intense upper jet will
lend to a challenging temperature forecast Saturday. High
temperatures will range some 15-20 degrees from the upper 20s near
Kirksville to the mid 40s across west central MO, and the gradient
magnitude varies considerably among the 00Z models.
Sunday-Sunday Night:
Low level temps will steadily warm Saturday night and early Sunday
ahead of the next arctic blast. 925mb temps could reach +10C,
suggesting that temperatures will likely reach the low-mid 50s across
all but far nrn MO before frontal passage late in the afternoon.
Definitely the mildest day in the coming week. In a reversal of
fortune so to speak, surface pressures will increase 30mb from 12Z
Sunday to 12Z Monday, coincident with a strong arctic blast trailing
yet another Canadian Clipper. Temperatures will plummet some 45 to 50
degrees from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning, and I would not be
surprised to see wind gusts again in the 30-40 mph range Sunday
evening. (Need to do some research as I cannot ever recall this
magnitude of wind in January across Missouri).
Monday-Thursday:
See no change in the overall upper flow pattern to round out the end
of the month. Above average confidence in little to no measurable
precipitation, and above average confidence in much below normal
temperatures Monday/Tuesday, then trending back toward normal
Wednesday/Thursday ahead of the next closed low in the sequence
dropping south through the Canadian Prairies.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Gusty southwest winds will continue through the day around 20 to 30
kts with gusts approaching 35 to 40 kts at times. Although winds will
gradually diminish through the evening to overnight hours expect
winds to remain around 10 to 15 kts. There will be a gradual shift
from SW to NW as a frontal passage comes through the area. By the end
of the forecast period, expect winds to be out of the NW around 15 to
25 kts, likely increasing after this forecast period. There could be
a brief period of MVFR stratus as the frontal passage occurs, but
considering how uncertain the soundings look and the brief time it
would occur, kept that period VFR for now, and will reassess as the
front approaches.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected along and south of a
St. Joseph to Carrollton to Moberly line from late morning through
mid afternoon.
Early morning observations show a very dry boundary layer in place
with dew points in the single digits below zero. Very little moderate
of this air mass is expected as temperatures steadily warm into the
upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, yielding relative humidity
values between 18 and 25%. The very dry air mass and 10-hour fuel
stick moisture of 7-8% will contribute to a very volatile setup as
southwest winds increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
Given the potential for rapid grassland fire spread, a red flag
warning remains in effect from 10AM through 8PM for the aforementioned
areas.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
WIND ADVISORY until 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ025-102.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ008-017-021>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY until 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ001>007-
011>016-020.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...Leighton
FIRE WEATHER...Bookbinder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1159 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...ACTUAL CEILING PROGRESSION DEVELOPMENTAL TIMING AFTER
25/03Z...IMPACTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHWRS CSV AND LLWS POTENTIAL 25/09Z-25/18Z.
AS NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID STATE BY 25/03Z...EXPECT BKN CI
CEILINGS TO TRANSITION TO STRATUS VFR CEILINGS BY 25/09Z. ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY BE PRESENT FOR LIGHT SNOW SHWRS CSV FROM 25/12Z-25/18Z...BUT AM
INITIALLY EXPECTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND ICING POTENTIAL MINIMAL.
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SFC GUSTS 20-25KTS
25/09Z-25/18Z. JUST ABOVE SFC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINUANCE OF
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH POTENTIAL LLWS TO 60KTS 25/10Z-25/18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID STATE.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE FIRST 18
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CEILINGS IMPACT KCKV
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF
PERIOD AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KCKV. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 12Z.
SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS
FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS SURFACE HIGH
SINKS FARTHER SOUTH OF TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS DIVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
AREAS. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AROUND 850
MBARS ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH WINDS JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO TURN WESTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA. LATEST RUC SOUNDING SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. I/R SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS
FIBRATUS SCOOTING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA ASSOCIATED
WITH 160 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 20S AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPING AM EXPECTING
TEMPS TONIGHT TO ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS PRESENTS KNOWN HERE IN THE MID STATE
AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CONTINUING EAST
OF INTERSTATE 24 SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A HALF INCH
ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ITS NOT AS
COLD BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AS PREVIOUS CLIPPERS. SURFACE HIGH
QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AROUND 50 MANY AREAS WITH MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE PLATEAU.
A STRONGER CLIPPER COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN
ONCE AGAIN. THE WORK WEEK LOOKS COLD AND SOMEWHAT A REPEAT OF WHAT
WE JUST HAD. LOOKING FARTHER OUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PATTERN
CHANGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET BECOMES
DOMINATE. THIS BEGINS TO SHOW UP ON THE EURO BY THE 31ST OF
JANUARY AND CONTINUES PAST GROUNDHOG DAY. LETS HOPE ITS A CLOUDY
DAY WHEN HE EMERGES FROM HIS BURROW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DANGEROUS...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING...WIND CHILLS OF -35 TO
-45 EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH
THIS EVENING BRINING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW 1.5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS
OF DRIFTING AND POSSIBLY BLOWING SNOW THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SLICK STRETCHES ON AREA ROADS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY THIS EVENING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
MOVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR A BRIEF BREAK
IN THE ACTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A POTENT SYSTEM TAKES AIM
ON THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THIS ZONE OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSHING
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND POSSIBLY
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE FLUFFY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF FRESHLY FALLEN
SNOW WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH
DRIFTING SNOW. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH
WITH THIS PACKAGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THEN SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO -30 TO
-45. THE COMBINATION OF THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER WIND PRONE AREAS COULD CREATE A LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION IF YOU WERE TO BECOME STRANDED OUTDOORS.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME WHEN
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE AT RECORD LOW VALUES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE -20 TO -25 RANGE. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF -35 TO -45 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO TEENS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
THE REGION AS WELL AND IT WILL PRODUCE A 4 TO 5 HOUR BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AS IT COMES THROUGH. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF
THE SNOW WITH THE 24.14Z HRRR SHOWING IT STARTING AT BOTH TAF
SITES AROUND 22Z WHILE THE 24.12Z NAM DOES NOT BRING IT IN UNTIL
00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODELS AND HAVE STAYED WITH THAT TIMING OF 23Z. EXPECT TO SEE THE
VISIBILITY GO DOWN TO IFR IN THE SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE
SNOW ENDS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL COME
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BLOWING
SNOW AT KRST WITH MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN
ENOUGH FOR THE BLOWING SNOW TO END AT KRST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...MONDAY
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BETWEEN -5 AND -15 ON
MONDAY...SEVERAL RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET OR TIED.
MANY OF THESE RECORDS WERE SET IN EITHER 1902 OR 1972. BELOW ARE
THE RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THAT DAY.
AUSTIN MN -2 IN 1950
CHARLES CITY IA -5 IN 1904
DECORAH IA -4 IN 1902
LA CROSSE WI -4 IN 1902
MEDFORD WI -8 IN 1902
NEILLSVILLE WI -10 IN 1902
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI -1 IN 1904
RICHLAND CENTER WI 2 IN 1972
ROCHESTER MN -5 IN 1966
SPARTA WI -1 IN 1972
THEILMAN MN -8 IN 1972
WINONA MN -9 IN 1972
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ061.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1110 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST WI EARLY
THIS MORNING...PER LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
RESULTING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY FROM THE I-94 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...A BIT STRONGER...DROPS IN
TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW. OVERALL...1
TO 2 INCHES LOOKS LIKELY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH MOST
ACCUMULATIONS COMING THIS EVENING. BLUSTERY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER...SOME
DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY...SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
STORM...WATCHES...WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES.
PART 1
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT
NIGHT/SUN...WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY LEADING IT IN. STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K SFCS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN...WITH LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER BULLS-EYEING THE AREA AT
12Z. HEFTY THERMODYNAMICS...BUT QUICK MOVING. THE STORM/S SFC WARM
FRONT MOVES IN FIRST...ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SUN...WITH A SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE INDICATED VIA
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST RUNNING X-SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS EAST
INTO MICH. SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD COME WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS/QG
CONVERGENCE FROM 850-500 MB/AND THE LEADING PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. THE SNOW WILL MOVE IN BY LATE SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE MAIN SNOW BAND SHIFTING EAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE...SOUNDINGS AND X-
SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT A WINTRY MIX WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POTENTIALITY
COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH MORE WARMING AND A SHALLOWER CLOUD DEPTH
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SUGGESTS A LOSS OF ICE IN
THE CLOUD AND POSSIBLY SOME MELTING...THUS BRINGING LIQUID/SLEET
INTO THE PICTURE. THAT SAID...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH/ICE IN CLOUD THAT IT WOULD BE
SNOW. STILL...ANOTHER ELEMENT TO WHAT IS GOING TO BE SOME VERY
UNPLEASANT DAYS. AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
THE QUICK NATURE OF THIS STORM HOLDING AMOUNTS DOWN. SOME ICING
COULD ALSO RESULT...SHOULD FREEZING PCPN/SLEET BE REALIZED.
PART 2
WINDS ARE GOING TO INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON...STAYING STRONG
INTO THE NIGHT. THE NAM IS VERY STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...MIXING DOWN
AS MUCH AS 47 KTS AT KRST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KTS LESS. EITHER SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA...ALONG WITH RIDGE-TOPS...COULD SEE
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...VSBYS 1/2 MILE OR LESS WITH LOTS
OF BLOWING ACROSS ROADWAYS.
PART 3
BRUTAL...POTENTIALLY DEADLY COLD MOVES IN FOR MON/TUE POST
THIS SUNDAY STORM. ECMWF 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES FALL TO -2.5 BY 12
MON...WITH -28C AT 850 MB DEPICTED IN THE GFS. HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL BE AROUND IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE REGION HOLDS UNDER THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHILE A SFC HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
CLOUDS OBVIOUSLY ADD AN INSULATION FACTOR...WHILE CLEAR SKIES WOULD
GIVE AN ADDITIONAL DROP IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW...LOWS IN THE -20S ARE PROBABLE TUE...WITH MINUS TEENS MON/WED.
HIGHS AREN/T LIKELY TO CRACK ZERO UNTIL WED. IN FACT...THE WHOLE
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WILL BE SUB ZERO. ADD
IN WINDS...AND WIND CHILLS -40 OR COLDER ARE LIKELY LATE SUN
NIGHT/MON MORNING AND AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. THIS COLD
GOES FROM DANGEROUS TO DEADLY IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. WIND
CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.
SOMEWHAT QUIET FOR SNOW CHANCES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK.
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OR WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DISAGREE WITH HOW TO HANDLE A SHORTWAVE THAT BOTH SUGGEST WILL DROP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THU. THE GFS FAVORS KEEPING ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE EC RIDES ITS A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. DON/T HAVE A
PREFERRED SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS THIS GO AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
THE REGION AS WELL AND IT WILL PRODUCE A 4 TO 5 HOUR BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AS IT COMES THROUGH. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF
THE SNOW WITH THE 24.14Z HRRR SHOWING IT STARTING AT BOTH TAF
SITES AROUND 22Z WHILE THE 24.12Z NAM DOES NOT BRING IT IN UNTIL
00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODELS AND HAVE STAYED WITH THAT TIMING OF 23Z. EXPECT TO SEE THE
VISIBILITY GO DOWN TO IFR IN THE SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE
SNOW ENDS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL COME
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BLOWING
SNOW AT KRST WITH MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN
ENOUGH FOR THE BLOWING SNOW TO END AT KRST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04