Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/24/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
850 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Rest of Tonight]... The main story will be the continuation of our cold weather. The large scale pattern this evening is highlighted by a trough from mid-Atlc to low over Srn Great Lakes WSW towards 4 corners leaving SE region in weak cyclonic or almost zonal flow at base of trough. Extensive mid and mainly high clouds streaming Ewd over Srn Conus. Shortwaves continue to eject from trough from the Rockies east kicking reinforcing cold fronts Ewd. At surface, 1045mb high over Cntrl Conus and a poorly defined arctic cold front aligned largely across Ern Big Bend at 01z. Front marked mainly by slight increase NW winds behind front vs near calm winds ahead...and especially by sharp dew point gradient...10 to 19 degrees just upstream and 25 to 30 just downstream. Dew points across N/Cntrl AL already in single digits. All this reflected in area RAP 13 soundings with light NLY flow sfc to H85 then strong WSW flow H85 to H2. PWAT only about 0.3 inches even with passing front. Cold front should be east of I-75 in next few hours. Satellite...00z TAE RAOB...HRRR high cloud model show high clouds H6 and above moving WNW over waters and mainly S/E of I-10 into midnight. NW winds will increase beginning in the next few hours 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts...higher along the coast. Strong cold air advection will develop dropping dew points to single digits inland to around 10 degrees at the coast by sunrise. This will send low temperatures below freezing. A model blend gives lows ranging from around 20 deg north of Albany and Dothan, to upper 20s around Cross City and along the FL beaches. Hard freeze warning includes all of our forecast area (except for the beaches). This is probably a little bigger than it needs to be, but it matches our neighbors. The rather strong winds will combine with the cold temperatures to send wind chills into the teens necessitating a wind chill advisory for our entire area. && .Aviation...[Through 00Z Saturday] Mainly mid and upper level cloudiness will stream over the terminals through mid morning Friday. Gusty northerly winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots between 06z and 08z before decreasing in the 16 to 18z timeframe on Friday. Thereafter, clear skies and light winds will continue through the end of the 00z TAF cycle. && .Prev Discussions [250 PM EST]... .Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... After the passage of another Arctic front tonight, temperatures will struggle to warm during the day on Friday. The official forecast went closer to the raw model consensus for Friday high temperatures rather than the MOS due to poor performance of the MOS during the Arctic outbreak earlier this month (MOS was too warm during the day and too cold at night almost everywhere in our area) and good performance of the raw model consensus, particularly the locally generated CAM ensemble mean. On Friday night, an elongated area of high pressure is expected to be centered over the region, providing the opportunity for favorable radiational cooling conditions provided high clouds stay to the south. MOS tends to perform better in radiational cooling scenarios, so the forecast leaned closer to the MOS consensus for Friday night. This yields another hard freeze over most of the area except for the coastal zones. A temporary warm-up back to near average temperatures for this time of year will commence on Saturday as winds turn more to the west and southwest. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... Models still continue to show a weak Gulf low developing over the weekend and ejecting ENE to north Florida by Sunday night. This should allow for an increase in cloud cover and rain chances Sunday into Monday with moderating temperatures. The rain would most likely be light. Another cold front is expected Monday with the east coast trough amplifying again. This should provide a return to overnight freezes and cool days for the remainder of the forecast period as a Canadian high moves in behind the cold front. .Marine... Northerly winds and seas will rapidly increase to advisory levels tonight as another Arctic cold front passes over the northern Gulf. Advisory conditions will then quickly diminish by Friday afternoon as the calm center of high pressure spreads south. However, advisory conditions will once again be possible this weekend with the approach of another frontal system with strong westerly winds. .Fire Weather... An unusually dry airmass will move into the area tonight and Friday. Despite a cold day on Friday, we still expect RH values to drop a little below 20% Friday afternoon, with Red Flag conditions in Southeast AL. It will be more humid on Saturday so Red Flag conditions are unlikely. However, an increase in winds may cause daytime dispersion values to exceed 75. .Hydrology... Area creeks and rivers are steady or falling with no hydrologic concerns. No significant rainfall is expected through the next week. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 25 43 21 62 38 / 0 0 0 10 10 Panama City 28 44 31 60 43 / 0 0 0 10 10 Dothan 22 39 25 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 21 38 23 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 23 41 22 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 28 46 23 62 40 / 0 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 30 45 27 60 45 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ Friday for Calhoun-Central Walton- Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf- Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden- Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf- Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton- Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton- Washington. Hard Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Friday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes- Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton- Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington. Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon- Liberty-Madison-Washington. GA...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt- Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. Hard Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift- Turner-Worth. Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt- Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. Hard Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT/DVD AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...DVD/BLOCK FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
305 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STRATUS BELOW AROUND 5000 FT MSL IS BEING OVERRIDDEN BY PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS SW IDAHO...WHICH IS LIMITING SOLAR COMPONENT FAVORABLE FOR ERODING THE PESKY BLEAK GRAY LAYER OVER SW IDAHO. NORTH TO EAST WINDS ALOFT AND A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRATUS...PROBABLY FROM BOISE TO PAYETTE TO BAKER CITY...FOR A FEW HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY KEEP UPSLOPE STRATUS GOING ACROSS THE NW MAGIC VALLEY AS THE SOUTH FRINGE OF THE STRATUS ERODES SOUTH OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OPTOMISTIC ON GETTING RID OF THE STRATUS ABOVE 2500-3000 FT MSL AND INVERSION REFORMS ANYWAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SO OTHER THAN MINOR SLOSHING AROUND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THE STRATUS LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BELOW 3500-5000 FT MSL IN THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH DEEP ARCTIC LOWS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. CONTINUED FOG AND STRATUS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND MAGIC VALLEYS AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK AFTER TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO OUR AREA AND BETTER MIXING POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FZFG AT KBOI KONO KTWF KJER KBKE. STRATUS TOPS AT 5K FEET MSL IN TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AT KMYL KBNO. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 15- 25KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT AT 0Z THU. && .AIR STAGNATION...STAGNANT PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE SHORT TERM...VM LONG TERM....KA/WH AVIATION.....KA AIR STAGNATION...VM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LINCOLN IL
218 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 211 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 WILL BE EXTENDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING STRONG COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE OF THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS BELOW -15F THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN WAY OF RECOVERY TOMORROW AS LOWEST HEIGHTS ARE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH THE 1049 MB HIGH MOVING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST, PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AND NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW -10F FOR WIND CHILL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET FOR A WHILE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE IJX AREA SOUTHEAST INTO LWV, IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. PLAN ON EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. MAIN RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF UNDER CLEAR SKIES. UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, SOME AREAS, PARTICULAR ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS, MAY BE COLDER FRIDAY MORNING THAN TOMORROW MORNING. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT, TEMPS MAY START TO RISE IN THE WEST, BUT THE INCREASE IN WIND WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND CHILL. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE IN FULL SWING. LONG TERM...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THERMAL EVOLUTION, BUT EVEN TIMING OF FAST-MOVING CLIPPERS IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN REASONABLE SYNC. WARMING WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB 10C OR SO DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. NEXT MAJOR WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF IT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. LATEST MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE SUGGESTS THE TRACK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD CUTOFF BETWEEN IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL NEAR THE LOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. VERY COLD AIR WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS FALLING CLOSE TO READINGS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR CURRENT COLD BLAST. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BARKER && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1145 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 COLD FRONT STARTING TO CROSS KPIA AT MIDDAY AND SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL CENTRAL ILLINOIS TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. NARROW CLEAR SLOT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM IOWA WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME, ALTHOUGH MANY UPSTREAM OBS IN CENTRAL IOWA HAVE CEILINGS BACK UP TO AROUND 4000 FEET OR SO. LARGER AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO MINNESOTA. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS THESE CEILINGS AFFECTING CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING, BUT THIS AREA APPEARS MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE, AND WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW WELL IT HOLDS TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET. SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES OCCURRING IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE KPIA-KCMI CORRIDOR, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY EVENING, GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GEELHART && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1218 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... 320 AM CST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... WHEN TRYING TO DESCRIBE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...IT IS SIMILAR TO A CAR STUCK IN NEUTRAL. THE ENGINE STARTS UP...BUT DOESN`T GO ANYWHERE. MOTHER NATURE CLEARLY HAS DECIDED TO LOCK THE REGION INTO A COLD PATTERN...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE PROGGED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SO IF YOU ENJOYED THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...GOOD NEWS...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. ALAS WE ARE WITHIN TWO WEEKS OF SEEING WHAT A SPECIAL GROUNDHOG WILL PREDICT. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN RELATIVELY QUIET...HOWEVER THIS WILL MERELY BE A TEASE AS A CLIPPER CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE ACROSS WISC SPREADING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS NEXT WAVE HAVE STRENGTHENED MARGINALLY...WITH A NARROW CHANNEL OF MOISTENING/ASCENDING PARCELS INTO A FAVORABLE DGZ. THE BEST AREA FOR LIGHT ACCUMUS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A DIXON TO KANKAKEE TO FOWLER LINE...WITH GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.0 SNOWFALL. SOUTH OF THIS LINE UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE...MEANWHILE A NARROW AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST IL COULD SEE UP TO 2.0 INCHES OF FRESH POWDERY SNOWFALL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE LINGERING POTENT THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THAT TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM WITH WINDS HAVING BECOME SOUTHERLY. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS. CLIPPER WILL PUSH INTO WESTCENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...WITH A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. A SHARP INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT AS A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...AND UNFORTUNATELY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO TO ARND 0 NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND WELL BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS WEST OF I-355. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 30-35 MPH AND FORECAST TEMPS...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO ARND -20 TO -25 TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY IN FORECAST TEMPS/WINDS...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY/FORECAST...HIGH. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WHILE THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...THE EFFECTS WILL LINGER WITH CLOUDS HOLDING THRU THUR MORNING BEFORE THE STRONG SFC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO ERODE THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THE AFTN HOURS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA THUR...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS IN THE FAR WESTERN CWFA STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO THUR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY THUR...HOWEVER NOT AS POTENT AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS IT APPEARS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE CRITERIA TO -5 TO -15 DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED UP WITH YET ANOTHER BLUSTERY NIGHT HEADING INTO FRI. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY THUR EVENING...ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ALOFT WILL STEADILY WARM THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT STARTING ARND -20 DEG C TO ARND -9 DEG C BY DAYBREAK FRI. WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CHALLENGE FOR SFC TEMPS...AND CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THUR EVE BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND AFT MIDNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNS THUR NGT/EARLY FRI...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING WIND CHILL VALUES BACK TO AT LEAST -20 TO -25 TO POSSIBLY NEARING -30 DEG F BY MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SO DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST ANY WIND CHILL WATCH YET. ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES EAST ACROSS MANITOBA TOWARDS JAMES BAY FRI...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL FRI NGT. PRIOR TO FROPA...WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS COULD SEE A QUICK BUMP INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPR 20S FRI...AND THAT MAY EVEN BE A TAD TOO CONSERVATIVE. WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A HANDFUL OF POINTS TAG 30-32 DEGREES...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATE WEEK WAVE...INDICATING SNOW ACCUMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT RATIOS WILL HOVER IN THE 20:1 TO 25:1...WITH POSSIBLY 1-3" OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK SAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A DIXON IL TO FOWLER IN LINE. CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THUR NGT...HIGH. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PATTERN...HOWEVER SOME MINOR RELAXING MAY TAKE PLACE TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIODS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THROUGH AT LEAST MON...THE WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WILL FLIRT WITH +4 SIGMA. THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LOCKS THE TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS HAVE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR SUN...AND PRESENTLY IS EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED MARGINALLY WITH THE RECENT CYCLES BEGINNING TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS FAVORABLE ON THE NOSE OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH A FLATTENING IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. THIS MAY BE AN EARLY INDICATION THAT AN FGEN BAND COULD DEVELOP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS YET AGAIN DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT AND STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW SUN...MEDIUM/HIGH. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * LIGHT SNOW ENDING WITHIN THE HOUR BUT WITH LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR/IFR VIS POSSIBLE. * A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. * SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VIS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. RODRIGUEZ //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY EXIT WITHIN THE HOUR...BUT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONT. THIS SNOW IS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH DONT EXPECT THE BETTER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOWEST VISIBILITY IN THIS SNOW COULD STILL DROP TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES...BUT WITH THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 MILES UNTIL THIS SNOW EXITS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING...AS A BULK OF THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN. DID CLEAR OUT SKIES OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS CLOUD SHIELD APPEARS TO BE NARROW IN COVERAGE PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ORIENTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WHILE INCREASING WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF AROUND 30KT STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING RODRIGUEZ //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SNOW TRENDS WITHIN THE HOUR...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SNOW TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD. * MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. RODRIGUEZ //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW LIKELY. A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...CHANCE SNOW. IFR POSSIBLE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. KJB && .MARINE... 339 AM CST A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL HEADLINE WORTHY WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE LAKE. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE LAKE...A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL SETUP SOME GALE FORCE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. THEREFORE I UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND MOVED IT UP A FEW HOURS. I ALSO INCLUDED MY INDIANA NEAR SHORES IN THIS WARNING...AS IT APPEARS A NARROW CHANNEL OF STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40 KT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LAND-LAKE CONVERGENCE LAKE EFFECT BAND. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF GALES ALONG MY ILLINOIS NEAR SHORES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT HERE...I FELT BETTER GOING WITH A 30 KT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND MENTIONING SOME 35 KT GALE FORCE GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ABATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG GALES WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS EVENT AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HIGH END SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF 45 KT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY ON BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EVEN OCCUR WITH THIS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. I HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. A GALE WATCH OR STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT. IF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY GALES UP TO 40 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744- LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1145 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1000 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014 Cold front approaching the western CWA late this morning, about to cross the Mississippi River shortly. Areas of light snow and flurries have been moving through mainly the northern half of the forecast area, periodically reducing visibilities to around 4 miles, although some heavier snow showers going through the Quad Cities have brought visibilities down to around 2 miles. Have increased PoP`s across mainly the northern CWA. The grids and zones are a bit difficult to reconcile in this situation, as there will likely be a widespread area of flurries, but only about a 30-40% chance that it would accumulate. Anything measurable would likely be over the next few hours as the front passes. A narrow clear slot, about 30-50 miles wide, will be moving into the northwest CWA shortly, but a larger area of clouds behind the front will keep skies mostly cloudy overall through the day. Geelhart && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1145 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014 Cold front starting to cross KPIA at midday and should be through all central Illinois TAF sites by mid afternoon. Narrow clear slot will advance through the area, but additional clouds moving in from Iowa will produce MVFR ceilings for a time, although many upstream obs in central Iowa have ceilings back up to around 4000 feet or so. Larger area of MVFR ceilings from northern Iowa into Minnesota. Will need to watch this as the RAP model suggests these ceilings affecting central Illinois this evening, but this area appears more diurnal in nature, and will wait to see how well it holds together after sunset. Some lower visibilities occurring in scattered snow showers, mainly in the KPIA-KCMI corridor, and this will continue for a few more hours. Northwest winds will ramp up behind the front and by evening, gusts of 20-30 knots are expected. This will likely persist into Thursday morning. Geelhart && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 308 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014 Will issue a wind chill advisory across central and southeast IL from 9 pm this evening through noon on Thursday for wind chills between 15 and 25 below zero. Northern areas will come close to wind chill warning criteria of 25 below zero or colder late tonight into mid morning Thursday. A wind chill advisory may be needed again Thursday night into mid morning Friday. SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night A long wave upper level trof will remain over the eastern states through next week with temps staying below normal, though some brief modification this weekend. Series of clipper systems/ northern stream short waves will continue to dive SE into the region every few days bring periodic chances of light snow. 1st one to mainly pass to our NE today and then next one arriving Friday night and another one on Sunday with better chance of light snow accumulations Friday night and Sunday. 504 dm 500 mb low between Hudson Bay and Lake Superior will send a northern stream short wave/clipper SE into the great lakes region today. Central IL will be on the SW fringe of this system and only expect a chance of light snow or flurries today with light dusting from I-74 NE. Short wave quickly exits SE into the upper Ohio river valley while 1048 mb arctic high pressure settles into the central Plains Thu and into AR/western TN by dawn Friday. Arctic cold front passes SE through central IL this afternoon with brisk NW winds behind the front driving down wind chills. Arctic air mass in place through Friday morning to ensure wind chills of 15 to 25 below zero after 9 pm this evening, though SE counties will likely not reach the criteria until during overnight and continue Thu morning. Areas from I-74 north could see wind chills reach 25 below zero or colder for a few hours late tonight into mid morning Thu and may need to upgrade to a wind chill warning. Another very cold night expected Thursday night with lows zero to 5 below zero while wind chills back down to 15 to 23 below zero Thu night into mid morning Friday. Increased SW winds Friday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely and helping to raise temps into the mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with SW areas 30-32F by Jacksonville and west. Another strong clipper system dives into the Great Lakes region Friday night and appears to bring better chances of light snow accumulations to central IL with up to 1 inch possible and possibly a bit more NE of I-74. Will be windy with some blowing of this snow Friday night into Saturday morning as light snow diminishes then. Highs Sat range from mid 20s north of Peoria to 30-35F from I-72 south. LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday Yet another clipper system to bring a chance of light snow to the IL river valley overnight Sat night and across the area on Sunday as it moves into the great lakes region. Could be light snow accumulations again near 1 inch or less especially from I-74 NE. Highs Sunday in the upper 20s NE and 30-35F SW areas. Then another surge of arctic air to arrive early next work week and wind chills could reach 15 to 20 below zero Monday night. The 8-14 day outlook through Feb 4 continues 50-65% chance of below normal temperatures and 40% chance of above normal precipitation which would likely fall as more snow. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to Noon CST Thursday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
340 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... 320 AM CST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... WHEN TRYING TO DESCRIBE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...IT IS SIMILAR TO A CAR STUCK IN NEUTRAL. THE ENGINE STARTS UP...BUT DOESN`T GO ANYWHERE. MOTHER NATURE CLEARLY HAS DECIDED TO LOCK THE REGION INTO A COLD PATTERN...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE PROGGED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SO IF YOU ENJOYED THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...GOOD NEWS...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. ALAS WE ARE WITHIN TWO WEEKS OF SEEING WHAT A SPECIAL GROUNDHOG WILL PREDICT. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN RELATIVELY QUIET...HOWEVER THIS WILL MERELY BE A TEASE AS A CLIPPER CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE ACROSS WISC SPREADING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS NEXT WAVE HAVE STRENGTHENED MARGINALLY...WITH A NARROW CHANNEL OF MOISTENING/ASCENDING PARCELS INTO A FAVORABLE DGZ. THE BEST AREA FOR LIGHT ACCUMUS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A DIXON TO KANKAKEE TO FOWLER LINE...WITH GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.0 SNOWFALL. SOUTH OF THIS LINE UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE...MEANWHILE A NARROW AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST IL COULD SEE UP TO 2.0 INCHES OF FRESH POWDERY SNOWFALL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE LINGERING POTENT THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THAT TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM WITH WINDS HAVING BECOME SOUTHERLY. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS. CLIPPER WILL PUSH INTO WESTCENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...WITH A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. A SHARP INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT AS A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...AND UNFORTUNATELY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO TO ARND 0 NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND WELL BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS WEST OF I-355. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 30-35 MPH AND FORECAST TEMPS...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO ARND -20 TO -25 TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY IN FORECAST TEMPS/WINDS...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY/FORECAST...HIGH. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WHILE THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...THE EFFECTS WILL LINGER WITH CLOUDS HOLDING THRU THUR MORNING BEFORE THE STRONG SFC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO ERODE THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THE AFTN HOURS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA THUR...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS IN THE FAR WESTERN CWFA STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO THUR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY THUR...HOWEVER NOT AS POTENT AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS IT APPEARS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE CRITERIA TO -5 TO -15 DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED UP WITH YET ANOTHER BLUSTERY NIGHT HEADING INTO FRI. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY THUR EVENING...ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ALOFT WILL STEADILY WARM THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT STARTING ARND -20 DEG C TO ARND -9 DEG C BY DAYBREAK FRI. WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CHALLENGE FOR SFC TEMPS...AND CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THUR EVE BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND AFT MIDNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNS THUR NGT/EARLY FRI...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING WIND CHILL VALUES BACK TO AT LEAST -20 TO -25 TO POSSIBLY NEARING -30 DEG F BY MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SO DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST ANY WIND CHILL WATCH YET. ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES EAST ACROSS MANITOBA TOWARDS JAMES BAY FRI...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL FRI NGT. PRIOR TO FROPA...WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS COULD SEE A QUICK BUMP INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPR 20S FRI...AND THAT MAY EVEN BE A TAD TOO CONSERVATIVE. WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A HANDFUL OF POINTS TAG 30-32 DEGREES...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATE WEEK WAVE...INDICATING SNOW ACCUMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT RATIOS WILL HOVER IN THE 20:1 TO 25:1...WITH POSSIBLY 1-3" OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK SAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A DIXON IL TO FOWLER IN LINE. CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THUR NGT...HIGH. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PATTERN...HOWEVER SOME MINOR RELAXING MAY TAKE PLACE TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIODS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THROUGH AT LEAST MON...THE WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WILL FLIRT WITH +4 SIGMA. THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LOCKS THE TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS HAVE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR SUN...AND PRESENTLY IS EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED MARGINALLY WITH THE RECENT CYCLES BEGINNING TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS FAVORABLE ON THE NOSE OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH A FLATTENING IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. THIS MAY BE AN EARLY INDICATION THAT AN FGEN BAND COULD DEVELOP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS YET AGAIN DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT AND STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW SUN...MEDIUM/HIGH. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS. * PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE. * COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...AND WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VIS AND CONTAMINATE PLOWED SURFACES. KJB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS SET TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THE SNOW COULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT SETS UP IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST TIME FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED...SO I DID NOT STRAY FROM THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE BETTER SNOWFALL. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS AND A HOUR OR SO SOONER AT KRFD. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KT FOR A PERIOD. THESE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. DUE TO THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF BLSN...EVEN AFTER THE SNOW STOPS FALLING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...BUT LIKELY NOT BELOW 5SM. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GRADUAL LOWERING VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/IMPACTS OF SNOW ON VIS/CIG CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD. KJB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF ORD/MDW. FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WITH BLOWING SNOW LIKELY...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. MONDAY...VFR. RATZER/KB && .MARINE... 339 AM CST A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL HEADLINE WORTHY WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE LAKE. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE LAKE...A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL SETUP SOME GALE FORCE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. THEREFORE I UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND MOVED IT UP A FEW HOURS. I ALSO INCLUDED MY INDIANA NEAR SHORES IN THIS WARNING...AS IT APPEARS A NARROW CHANNEL OF STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40 KT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LAND-LAKE CONVERGENCE LAKE EFFECT BAND. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF GALES ALONG MY ILLINOIS NEAR SHORES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT HERE...I FELT BETTER GOING WITH A 30 KT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND MENTIONING SOME 35 KT GALE FORCE GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ABATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG GALES WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS EVENT AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HIGH END SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF 45 KT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY ON BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EVEN OCCUR WITH THIS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. I HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. A GALE WATCH OR STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT. IF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY GALES UP TO 40 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744- LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 330 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 308 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014 Will issue a wind chill advisory across central and southeast IL from 9 pm this evening through noon on Thursday for wind chills between 15 and 25 below zero. Northern areas will come close to wind chill warning criteria of 25 below zero or colder late tonight into mid morning Thursday. A wind chill advisory may be needed again Thurday night into mid morning Friday. SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night A long wave upper level trof will remain over the eastern states through next week with temps staying below normal, though some brief modification this weekend. Series of clipper systems/ northern stream short waves will continue to dive se into the region every few days bring periodic chances of light snow. 1st one to mainly pass to our ne today and then next one arriving Friday night and another one on Sunday with better chance of light snow accumulations Friday night and Sunday. 504 dm 500 mb low between Hudson Bay and Lake Superior will send a northern stream short wave/clipper se into the great lakes region today. Central IL will be on the sw fringe of this system and only expect a chance of light snow or flurries today with light dusting from I-74 ne. Short wave quickly exits se into the upper ohio river valley while 1048 mb arctic high pressure settles into the central Plains Thu and into AR/western TN by dawn Friday. Arctic cold front passes se through central IL this afternoon with brisk nw winds behind the front driving down wind chills. Arctic air mass in place through Friday morning to ensure wind chills of 15 to 25 below zero after 9 pm this evening, though se counties will likely not reach the criteria until during overnight and continue Thu morning. AReas from I-74 north could see wind chills reach 25 below zero or colder for a few hours late tonight into mid morning Thu and may need to upgrade to a wind chill warning. Another very cold night expected Thursday night with lows zero to 5 below zero while wind chills back down to 15 to 23 below zero Thu night into mid morning Friday. Increased sw winds Friday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely and helping to raise temps into the mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with sw areas 30-32F by Jacksonville and west. Another strong clipper system dives into the Great Lakes region Friday night and appears to bring better chances of light snow accumulations to central IL with up to 1 inch possible and possibly a bit nore ne of I-74. Will be windy with some blowing of this snow Friday night into Saturday morning as light snow diminishes then. Highs Sat range from mid 20s north of Peoria to 30-35F from I-72 south. LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday Yet another clipper system to bring a chance of light snow to the IL river valley overnight Sat night and across the area on Sunday as it moves into the great lakes region. Could be light snow accumulations again near 1 inch or less especilly from I-74 ne. Highs Sunday in the upper 20s ne and 30-35F sw areas. Then another surge of arctic air to arrive early next work week and wind chills could reach 15 to 20 below zero Monday night. The 8-14 day outlook through Feb 4 continues 50-65% chance of below normal temperatures and 40% chance of above normal precipitation which would likely fall as more snow. 07 && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1105 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014 Main forecast challenge will be if cigs drop to MVFR Wednesday afternoon and evening behind another strong surge of Arctic air. Cloud bases continue to slowly lower late this evening and expect this trend to continue overnight as another fast moving weather system approaches our area from the northwest. Already seeing some isolated flurries being reported over parts of central and eastern Iowa in advance of the upper wave. Coverage of activity out to our west is quite limited and based on the 00Z ILX sounding, the dry atmosphere present in our area may keep the flurries from being much of a factor thru most of this forecast period. A few models suggest cigs may lower to MVFR after the cold frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. Both the HRRR and RAP models indicate cig bases will lower to between 3000-3500 feet by afternoon just behind the cold front. We trended in that direction with the 00z forecast and see no strong evidence at this point to make any significant changes. Another concern will be with the gusty northwest winds that will be dominant behind the Arctic cold front tomorrow afternoon thru tomorrow night. Initially, surface winds will be light southerly late tonight, and then south to southwest at 10 to 15 kts tomorrow morning. Just after FROPA, expect northwest winds to prevail at 12 to 17 kts with Bufkit soundings indicating gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Smith && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to Noon CST Thursday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1148 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 .DISCUSSION... 913 PM CST FOR EVENING UPDATE... HAVE CANCELLED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER COUNTY PRIOR TO ITS ORIGINAL MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION...AS LAKE SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 03Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING EAST ACROSS IL...WITH DIMINISHING/BACKING WINDS HELPING TO ALLOW EARLIER STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOW WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE LINGERS INTO NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY...THOUGH REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND EXPECT CONTINUED DECAY AS RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND JUST ALOFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST. OVER NORTHERN IL...EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVER SNOW COVER HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY SPOTS AWAY FROM CHICAGO...THOUGH INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW THESE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAKER MEMBER OF A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH THE IL/WI STATE LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN/NORTH CENTRAL IL BY SUNRISE. HAVE PUSHED THE START OF POPS BACK JUST A LITTLE FROM 06-09Z IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS/TSECTS...WHICH INDICATE SOME MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS MUST OCCUR FIRST AS LARGE SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO INCREASE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES MADE INTO TOMORROW. RATZER //PREV DISCUSSION... 322 PM CST SYNOPSIS...BUSY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE CLIPPER COUNT CONTINUING TO INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES AND UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHARP RIDGING IS STRETCHED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A CORRIDOR OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS RATHER SUBTLE BUT PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE NEXT WAVE IS MORE ORGANIZED AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. OVERALL THIS SAME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TRACKS OF THE VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS WILL VARY QUITE A BIT. LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...FIRST UP IS CONTINUING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA. SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAS BEGUN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWING AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE BAND FURTHER UP THE LAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS KEEPING A STEADIER NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION...WHILE THE FLOW TO THE EAST HAS BEEN WEAKER AND MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MESOSCALE LAKE INFLUENCES. AS A RESULT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND HAS BEEN ORIENTED TO THE SOUTHWEST KEEPING IT ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS/EDDIES MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAND WHICH HAVE BEEN HELPING THE BAND TO UNDULATE BACK AND FORTH FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT THE INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE BAND SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A MORE PRONOUNCED TRACK TO THE EAST...THOUGH THIS MAY BE GRADUAL. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WITH THE WEAK FLOW REGIME OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE... LAND BREEZE PROCESS MAY TAKE OVER AND HELP UNDULATE THE BAND BACK WEST AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. DO EXPECT THAT THE WESTERLY AND EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH THE CONVERGENCE BACK OFFSHORE SOME TIME LATE THIS EVENING BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR. WITH ALL OF THIS WILL LET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUE UNTIL 5 PM CST FOR LAKE COUNTY WITH THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO PORTER BY ABOUT THAT TIME. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR PORTER AND EXTEND IT UNTIL MIDNIGHT THINKING THAT SNOW COVERAGE MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE/BECOME MORE BROKEN WITH TIME. INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY STILL OCCUR...BUT THEY MAY BE FOR A SHORTER DURATION. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS...WITH SOME CHANCE PORTER WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED IF THE REFLECTIVITY REMAINS PERSISTENT AND THAT LAKE COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED. MDB/ED F TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE ARRIVING EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS PRONOUNCED THAN IT CURRENTLY IS. THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD BE CENTERED ABOVE THE DENDRITIC ZONE GIVEN HOW LOW IT IS DUE TO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS FIRST WAVE OF FORCING WILL PUSH ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND LOOKS TO BRING AROUND A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION TO MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME OF THE MORNING GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION GIVEN HOW FAR SOUTH IT EXTENDS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE CURRENT TIME...SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SNOW. THE BETTER ORGANIZED WAVE NOTED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL THEN PIVOT THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL IN TURN DRAG A SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SECOND ROUND OF SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER FORCING IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE SO A BRIEF BUT INTENSE PERIOD OF SNOW MAY RESULT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT TOO WITH A DRY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL AMOUNTS BY EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH AT THIS POINT BUT IF THE AFTERNOON SNOW IS MORE INTENSE THEN THIS MAY ITSELF BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES...ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE REACHED EARLY TONIGHT...IN THE 0 TO 7 OR 8 BELOW RANGE...BEFORE WARMING TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT SO WIND CHILLS LOOK TO BE JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH. HIGHS DO LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT INTO THE TEENS BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH LOWS BACK TO AROUND OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ALSO RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TURN WINDS NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE A STRONG HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPING WINDS FURTHER WEST NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR CONVERGENCE DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE ASCENT OVER THE LAKE AND THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN IT LOOKED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DURATION OF FAVORABLE WINDS LOOKS QUITE A BIT SHORTER THAN THE CURRENT EVENT. AS SEEN WITH THE CURRENT EVENT...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT WILL IMPACT THE WIND FIELD BEHIND IT AND ULTIMATELY THE PLACEMENT OF A LAKE BAND. SHOULD THE CURRENT TRACK HOLD THEN IT DOES APPEAR THAT SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A WESTWARD MOVING BAND THURSDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST SOME IMPACT POSSIBLE IN THE CWA. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS GIVEN WHAT NEEDS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THAT TIME AND THE RECENT DIFFICULTY OF GUIDANCE IN HANDLING OF SURFACE LOW TRACKS. OTHERWISE...BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE ARCTIC AIR AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND OF 5 TO 10 BELOW THURSDAY NIGHT TO CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO HEADLINE CRITERIA...WITH WARNINGS POSSIBLE. FRIDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS HUDSON BAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP BY FRIDAY MORNING COMBINING WITH WARMING ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THANKS TO THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. SEVERAL MORE CLIPPERS LOOK ON TRACK STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOKING POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MDB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS. * PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE. * COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...AND WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VIS AND CONTAMINATE PLOWED SURFACES. KJB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS SET TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THE SNOW COULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT SETS UP IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST TIME FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED...SO I DID NOT STRAY FROM THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE BETTER SNOWFALL. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS AND A HOUR OR SO SOONER AT KRFD. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KT FOR A PERIOD. THESE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. DUE TO THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF BLSN...EVEN AFTER THE SNOW STOPS FALLING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...BUT LIKELY NOT BELOW 5SM. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GRADUAL LOWERING VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/IMPACTS OF SNOW ON VIS/CIG CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD. KJB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF ORD/MDW. FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WITH BLOWING SNOW LIKELY...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. MONDAY...VFR. RATZER/KB && .MARINE... 426 PM CST MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ISSUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...GALES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE. A FAIRLY BUSY FORECAST PERIOD STARTED OFF WITH A DIMINISHING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THESE LIGHTER SPEEDS WILL BE OBSERVED TONIGHT BUT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NEW LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE AS WINDS BECOME MORE WEST NORTHWEST. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FURTHER AND GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777- LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1115 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 835 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014 High pressure centered over central Illinois early this evening will shift off to our east overnight allowing a light southerly wind to develop over the area. That combined with an increase in clouds will keep temperatures from falling off much further this evening, especially across the west. Latest surface observations out to our west indicate some flurries occurring over parts of central Iowa ahead of another quick moving upper level wave and associated cold front, which is slated to push across our area on Wednesday. That cold front will deliver another bone chilling cold air mass with dangerously cold wind chills Wednesday night through Thursday. Have made some changes to the early evening temperature trends across the forecast area as well as adding a slight chance for flurries well after midnight mainly over the west. Should have the updated zone forecast out by 900 pm. && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1105 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014 Main forecast challenge will be if cigs drop to MVFR Wednesday afternoon and evening behind another strong surge of Arctic air. Cloud bases continue to slowly lower late this evening and expect this trend to continue overnight as another fast moving weather system approaches our area from the northwest. Already seeing some isolated flurries being reported over parts of central and eastern Iowa in advance of the upper wave. Coverage of activity out to our west is quite limited and based on the 00Z ILX sounding, the dry atmosphere present in our area may keep the flurries from being much of a factor thru most of this forecast period. A few models suggest cigs may lower to MVFR after the cold frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. Both the HRRR and RAP models indicate cig bases will lower to between 3000-3500 feet by afternoon just behind the cold front. We trended in that direction with the 00z forecast and see no strong evidence at this point to make any significant changes. Another concern will be with the gusty northwest winds that will be dominant behind the Arctic cold front tomorrow afternoon thru tomorrow night. Initially, surface winds will be light southerly late tonight, and then south to southwest at 10 to 15 kts tomorrow morning. Just after FROPA, expect northwest winds to prevail at 12 to 17 kts with Bufkit soundings indicating gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Smith && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 240 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014 Models continue to reflect the persistance of the longwave trough anchored over eastern North America. Occasional clippers bring light precip and reinforcing cold air to the upstream side of the trough in the northwest flow. Main differences in the models is the amount of moisture available with each of these weak systems and the amount of cold air surging into the area in the wake of each system. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday Quick northwest flow continues to produce a train of systems across the midwest. High pressure ridge extending from southwest Wisconsion into eastern Kansas this afternoon will move across Illinois this evening. The light winds, mostly clear skies, and cold airmass should enable temperatures to fall early this evening. After midnight, southerly winds are expected to develop on the backside of the ridge and ahead of the next weak clipper. With the winds picking up, temperatures should rise. There may be a brief period of time as the winds first start to increase where wind chills may drop to near advisory levels, but this period should be short-lived and a wind chill advisory will likely not be needed. The moisture-starved clipper system moves northeast of the forecast area on Wednesday. a few flurries will be possible with the best chances northeast of I-74. 12z NAM is the only model from the latest suite to indicate chance of measurable so will keep meantion as flurries. The system will trail a cold front through the area during the afternoon reinforcing the arctic air mass in place. Forecasted temperatures at 850 mb drop below 20C across much of the forecast area by 12z Thursday. Cold temperatures (from -7F GBG to +6C LWV) coupled with northwest winds of 10-20 mph should once again drop wind chills below -15F across most of the forecast area. It is likely that an advisory will be required. Highs will only rise a few degrees from morning lows on Thursday as cold northwest winds persist. LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday Another cold night Thursday Night can be expected though not quite as cold as Wednesday Night as winds shift to the southwest ahead of the next system. Temperatures should climb almost back to normal for the latter half of January for Friday through Sunday... before a strong cold front moves through Illinois early next week. There is some range in model temperature solutions for the weekend. On the edges of the envelope are the GEM raising 850 mb temperatures to near 0C by 12z Sunday while the ECMWF is almost 20 degrees C colder. At this time will split the difference which is slightly above the 12z MEX guidance. Colder air returns for Monday and Tuesday with temperatures once again more consistent between models and resulting in highs mostly in the teens and lows near zero. Although moisture remains rather limited, appears there may be a chance of light snow Friday night with sligh chances through much of the weekend with skies generally mostly cloudy. At this time it appears that any snow amounts should be less than an inch. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
325 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS SMALLER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE DEVELOPING IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS UPPED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTH HALF OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT LIKELY POPS EARLY THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WELL ABOVE MOS POPS BUT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS FEEL THIS IS PRUDENT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MOST FORCING EXITS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING THERE. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WENT CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET MOS/RAW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL AREAS TONIGHT...STARTING AT 100 AM NORTH AND 400 AM SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 A LOT TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...SNOWFALL...AND WINDS. KEPT LOW POPS NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND PROVIDES DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS PLUS SOME UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH A FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY MORNING AND DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...AS CORE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. THIS IS CLOSE TO MET MOS/MODEL BLEND. SAME AIRMASS KEEP LOWS BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS. READINGS REBOUND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE MANY AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH HALF. WINDS WILL LESSEN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE ABOVE...EVEN THOUGH WIND CHILL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DECIDED JUST TO KEEP IT SIMPLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE ANOTHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN THE SAME. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THIS COULD CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES WITH ANY SNOW THAT FALLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 FASCINATING TO WATCH MODEL LOOPS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS/ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE AREA BETWEEN JAMES BAY/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ABOUT 3000 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER OUR AREA. THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/ASSOCIATED LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE FOR US WITH THE SNOW COVER WE HAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS ENDS THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGIONAL BLEND OF THE MODELS DURING THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT ROTATES ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING MAKING IT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/21Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 CHANGES MADE TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR OCCURRING IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...DWM AVIATION...DWM/NIELD VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS SMALLER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE DEVELOPING IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS UPPED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTH HALF OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT LIKELY POPS EARLY THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WELL ABOVE MOS POPS BUT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS FEEL THIS IS PRUDENT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MOST FORCING EXITS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING THERE. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WENT CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET MOS/RAW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL AREAS TONIGHT...STARTING AT 100 AM NORTH AND 400 AM SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 A LOT TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...SNOWFALL...AND WINDS. KEPT LOW POPS NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND PROVIDES DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS PLUS SOME UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH A FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY MORNING AND DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...AS CORE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. THIS IS CLOSE TO MET MOS/MODEL BLEND. SAME AIRMASS KEEP LOWS BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS. READINGS REBOUND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE MANY AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH HALF. WINDS WILL LESSEN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE ABOVE...EVEN THOUGH WIND CHILL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DECIDED JUST TO KEEP IT SIMPLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE ANOTHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN THE SAME. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THIS COULD CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES WITH ANY SNOW THAT FALLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 FASCINATING TO WATCH MODEL LOOPS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS/ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE AREA BETWEEN JAMES BAY/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ABOUT 3000 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER OUR AREA. THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/ASSOCIATED LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE FOR US WITH THE SNOW COVER WE HAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS ENDS THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGIONAL BLEND OF THE MODELS DURING THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT ROTATES ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING MAKING IT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 22/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION PRODUCING SEVERAL CHANCES OF SNOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 939 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SO UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. THUS MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODEL DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SNOW ARRIVING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES COULD REACH WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO MADE NO CHANGES TO SNOW CHANCES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A DRY OUTLIER WITH THIS EVENINGS SYSTEM WHILE THE NAM HAS TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD BE A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 18 BELOW LATE TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS IN. THESE WIND CHILLS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL EVEN BE COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING ALL AREAS BY THEN. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES YET...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTH THURSDAY AS THE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE AREAS. MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WETTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. IN MOST CASES FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER FOR THURSDAY AND GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES THOSE PERIODS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 FASCINATING TO WATCH MODEL LOOPS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS/ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE AREA BETWEEN JAMES BAY/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ABOUT 3000 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER OUR AREA. THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/ASSOCIATED LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE FOR US WITH THE SNOW COVER WE HAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS ENDS THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGIONAL BLEND OF THE MODELS DURING THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT ROTATES ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING MAKING IT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 22/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...DWM VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION PRODUCING SEVERAL CHANCES OF SNOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 939 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SO UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. THUS MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODEL DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SNOW ARRIVING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES COULD REACH WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO MADE NO CHANGES TO SNOW CHANCES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A DRY OUTLIER WITH THIS EVENINGS SYSTEM WHILE THE NAM HAS TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD BE A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 18 BELOW LATE TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS IN. THESE WIND CHILLS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL EVEN BE COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING ALL AREAS BY THEN. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES YET...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTH THURSDAY AS THE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE AREAS. MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WETTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. IN MOST CASES FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER FOR THURSDAY AND GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES THOSE PERIODS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND A MEAN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EACH WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE TAIL END OF THE FIRST WAVE...RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND WAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST BECOMES LOW. AT THIS TIME...LATEST INITIALIZATION IS NOT PULLING IN ANY PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH HINTING AT YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT INSERT POPS SINCE THIS IS DAY 7...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER INITIALIZATIONS START INTRODUCING PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN UPPER TROUGH. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 22/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...DWM VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
106 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM MST WED JAN 22 2014 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A 505DM CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG PV HEIGHT ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PROGRESSING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. REGARDING PRECIP...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS/SATELLITE IN LINE WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST CHANCES 03-09Z PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. I DID BUMP POPS UP A LITTLE TO CATEGORICAL (80) OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/UPSLOPE WIND/CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED. MODELS STILL FAVORING GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND GENERALLY ONE HALF IN OR LESS THE FURTHER EAST IN THE CWA. MODELS HAVE SPED UP EXIT OF PRECIP IN THE NORTH WITH VERY DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTH WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ARCTIC AIR MASS ADVECTS SOUTH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF -15F OR LESS ARE ADVERTISED TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. IN FACT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS MY CURRENT FORECAST LOW OF -7F COULD BE OPTIMISTIC FOR MCCOOK. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. REGARDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 F RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DESPITE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. I DECIDED TO ISSUE A WC ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA AND THE FIRST TWO TIER OF OUR NW KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THESE CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE CWA COULD STILL END UP BEING CLOSE DEPENDING ON WIND/SKY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. THURSDAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDDAY (POSSIBLY EARLIER)...WITH A DRY/COLD DAY EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS 20-25F WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS SLOW TO PULL EAST. AT LEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT (10 MPH OR LESS) WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 1226 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014 THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND BRIEF COOL DOWNS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND ONE FRONT...AND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HOWEVER...COULD NOT REACH A CONSENSUS FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ATTM. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THIS PERIOD WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN WINDS INCREASE TO BREEZY/WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT RH VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR NOW. MONDAY WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE COLD SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST WED JAN 22 2014 COLD FRONT STILL NORTH OF KMCK TERMINAL IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER 2500-4000FT STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED FURTHER SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND CANT RULE OUT BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK. AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AROUND 25KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. PRECIP FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH KMCK LIKELY REMAINING SNOW FREE. MVFR CIG/VIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AT KGLD WITH LIGHT SNOW. WHILE SREF DOES HINT AT IFR AT KGLD...THIS WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOW BAND IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND WOULD BE A TEMPORARY CONDITION OTHERWISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH BY 12Z...AND HAVE TAFS REFLECTING THIS TREND. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016. CO...NONE. NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
320 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAINTAIN FRIGID WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. LOW PRES IS CONTINUING ITS TREK ACROSS THE NW ATLC AND IS FCST TO PASS WELL S AND E OF NOVA SCOTIA. A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL AFFECTING MAINLY THE COAST AND EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND RUC HAD THIS SYSTEM HANDLED WELL W/PUSHING THE SNOW INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE MARITIMES BY 00Z W/LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE, THE DECISION HERE WAS TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WIND CHILLS. THE 12Z UA SHOWED COLD AIR SITTING BACK IN QUEBEC READY TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. THINKING IS ONCE THE LOW EXITS TO THE E, THAT COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT W/SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH RIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THIS CLEARING IS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY W/CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO HIT 10 TO 20 BELOW AND THIS COUPLED W/THE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SOME DANGEROUS WIND CHILL READINGS. NORTHWEST AND WESTERN MAINE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS REACH WARNING CRITERIA(AOB -34F) BY 3-4 AM THURSDAY. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE SOME CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. IF THIS DOES TAKE HOLD, THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP SOME, ALLOWING FOR WIND CHILL READINGS TO STAY ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS WHETHER AN UPGRADE TO A WIND CHILL WARNING IS NEEDED. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS SET UP FOR CENTRAL AND THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING BANGOR TO CALAIS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS WIND CHILLS COULD HIT 20 BELOW W/TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 5 BELOW. FOR THURSDAY, AN UPPER TROF IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE AT 700MBS IS SHOWN ESPECIALLY BY THE GFS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK LIFT. THE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG AND DECIDED TO STAY BELOW 15% FOR PRECIP CHANCES. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A DEEP ARCTIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BITTER COLD WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A FAST MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A NEW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRESS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PULL STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW. NORMALLY WHEN A LOW LIFTS TO OUR WEST BRINGING A STRONG SOUTH WIND, TEMPERATURES BECOME WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. HOWEVER, THE ARCTIC AIR IS SO DEEP THAT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST IN EASTERN SPOTS WHERE A WEAK SECONDARY REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST MAY FORM QUICKLY ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME ADDED SUPPORT TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRESH SURGE OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY WILL QUICKLY SWING EAST NORTHEAST APPROACHING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEW GFS IS NOW COMING IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THIS SMALL LOW. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR, SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FAVORED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BITTER COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO THURSDAY. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH AS KFVE AND KCAR AS SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY W/THE NW FLOW. ATTM, DID NOT GO W/MVFR CIGS IN THE NORTHERN TAFS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE IFR THROUGHOUT THE AREA IN LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING OUT THROUGH 11 PM AS WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. 44027 ALREADY CLOSING IN ON 40 KT GUSTS PER THE 2 PM OB. WAVE HEIGHTS ALSO NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THE LATEST TRENDS SHOWED HIGHER SEAS THAN WHAT WAS BEING FCST. THE SWAN GUIDANCE CAUGHT ON TO THE HIGHER SEAS OF 7-8 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER ON AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY. THE GALE WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A SCA BY THE LATE EVENING FCST CYCLE. SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY. A GALE MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003-004- 010. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1250 PM UPDATE...NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS READINGS ARE STILL RUNNING BELOW 0F. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. THEREFORE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WILL BE LUCKY TO CLIP 0F WHILE IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION, STAYED W/THE SINGLE NUMBERS ATTM. ON THE PRECIP END, SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES AND SNOWFALL/QPF AMOUNTS PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE 15Z RUC WAS DOING WELL W/SHOWING THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING OVER EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. SOME REPORTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN WASHINGTON COUNTY, OTHERWISE, A DUSTING. A NEW FCST PACKAGE WAS SHIPPED OUT TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING; WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN DOWNEAST MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE 0 TO 10 ABOVE WITH THE IMMEDIATE COAST JUST A BIT WARMER. FOR TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING, SO THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE COLD AND DRY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS THEY HAVE EARLY THIS MORNING, SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... CONTD VERY COLD XPCTD THU THRU FRI AS WEAK S/WVS ALF MOVG W TO E ACROSS THE REGION BRING OCNL CLDNSS AND PERHAPS FLURRIES/ICE CRYSTALS SPCLY ACROSS THE NR HLF OF THE FA. AN W TO E ORIENTATED SFC RIDGE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW VLY DECOUPLING FOR MID TO LATE THU NGT...BUT THE AMOUNT AND THICKNESS OF LOW CLDNSS WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GAMBLE WITH BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE LOWS WEIGHTED A LITTLE TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE TO HIGHLIGHT SOMEWHAT COLDER OVRNGT LOWS IN PROTECTED VLYS. OTHERWISE...LEANED MORE TOWARD CONSOLIDATED GUIDANCE FOR DYTM HI TEMPS FOR THU AND FRI AFTN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OVR MOST SINGLE AND OTHER BLENDED GUIDANCE IN A COLD REGIME SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AFT A FAIR CONDITIONS FRI EVE...CLDS INCREASE OVRNGT FRI WITH A CHC OF OVRRNG LGT SNFL SPCLY OVR WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY ERLY SAT MORN AS A MDTLY STRONG S/WV APCHS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LGT OVRRNG SNFL WILL CONT TO OVRSPRD THE REST OF THE FA SAT MORN AS A S/WV FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS APCHS AND THEN TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SAT NGT AS IT CROSSES THE FA. WE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR ALL OF THE FA SAT AFTN...THEN DECREASE TO CHC SN SHWRS SAT NGT AS A MID LVL DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE FA...GIVEN THAT THE MAIN SFC LOW ACTUALLY TRACKS NE THRU ERN QB JUST W OF THE ST LAWRENCE VLY WITH A WEAK TRIPLE POINT OCCLUSION LOW TRACKING OVR NE ME. WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE IN ENTRAINING ATLC MOISTURE...EQUIV QPF AND SNFL LOOK RELATIVELY LGT ATTM...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT LCLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALG THE ERN ME/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER JUST AS DEEPER ATLC MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ALSO...A MDTLY STRONG LLVL JET MAY BRING GUSTY S/SW SFC WINDS AND MILD ENOUGH TEMPS ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST FOR SN TO MIX WITH RN ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER SAT AFTN INTO ERLY SAT EVE BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS LATER SAT NGT. AFT A AN INITIAL WEAK FALL IN TEMPS BEHIND A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE FA WED LATE EVE...TEMPS WILL SHARPLY FALL BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SN SHWRS...SPCLY ACROSS THE N. GIVEN THE PRISTINENESS OF THE AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL NOT LIKELY RECOVER MUCH DURING THE DAY SUN...AND IN REALITY MAY A CONTINUE A SLOW FALL THRU THE DAY UNDER BRISK WRLY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER MSLY FAIR SKIES SUN EVE...WITH INCREASING HI/MID CLDNSS SPCLY ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS ANOTHER S/WV...THIS TM FROM THE OH VLY RESULTING IN SFC LOW PRES FROM THE MID ATLC STATES INTO THE GULF OF ME. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SN...SPCLY TO THE SE HLF OF THE FA MON INTO MON EVE WHERE WE WENT WITH LOW LIKELY POPS (AND LESSER CHC POPS FURTHER NW) BEFORE TAPERING TO SCT SN SHWRS LATE MON NGT. GIVEN THIS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...THIS EVENT WOULD BE COLDER THAN THE SAT EVENT WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER SN RATIOS PERHAPS RESULTING IN WNTR HDLNS... FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED VERY COLD...BUT MSLY FAIR CONDITIONS ON TUE. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z IN LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW MOVES TO THE EAST. SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU INTO FRI...WITH MVFR CLGS POSSIBLE ATTMS OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AND THU NGT. CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR FRI NGT AND TO IFR SAT IN LOW CLDNSS AND FALLING SNFL. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE SAT NGT TO MVFR IN REMAINING SN SHWRS AND TO VFR ON SUN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY, LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT INTO THIS EVENING. THE GALE WARNING THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY SCA CONDITIONS OR LESS THU AND FRI... WITH GALE FORCE SRLY WINDS POSSIBLE SAT AHEAD OF LOW PRES AND A COLD FRONT...THEN GALE FORCE WRLY WINDS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUN. WENT WITH A BLEND OF 00Z WW3 WITH SWAN NAM/GFS WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS/ WIND GUSTS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ002- 005-006-010. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001- 003-004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ030. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
424 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL. HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS. TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 424 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 NAM SHOWS A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF 12Z THU. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE NORTH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE 12Z FRI AND FRI NIGHT. COUPLE DIFFERENT CLIPPER SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA WITH ONE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND ANOTHER FOR FRI NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE ON FRI MORNING AND WENT LIKELY POPS OVER THE CWA THEN. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AND PERSISTENCE LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SAT. PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH VERY COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIKELY POPS IN NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS. WENT WITH COLDER CONSALL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED AS ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WERE TOO WARM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BRING -SN TO THE AREA. -SN HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT KIWD/KCMX. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR PREVAILING IFR VIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AT KIWD/KCMX...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM. SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS WELL. AT KSAW...SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW INITIALLY SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT N AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLSN WILL RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY A PERIOD OF VLIFR AT KCMX LATE AFTN/EVENING WHEN CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION IS NOT TYPICALLY THE FAVORED DIRECTION FOR VERY LOW VIS AT KCMX... BUT GIVEN EXPECTED WIND STRENGTH...LIFR/VLIFR APPEAR LIKELY. WITH WINDS/SNOW NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN IFR THERE...BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE. AT KSAW... CONDITIONS WON`T DETERIORATE BLO IFR UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH WILL PLACE A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND PASS A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266. GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ264-265. GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ265. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-264. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1153 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL. HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS. TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES. THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/. AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC. WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO -12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BRING -SN TO THE AREA. -SN HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT KIWD/KCMX. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR PREVAILING IFR VIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AT KIWD/KCMX...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM. SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS WELL. AT KSAW...SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW INITIALLY SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT N AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLSN WILL RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY A PERIOD OF VLIFR AT KCMX LATE AFTN/EVENING WHEN CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION IS NOT TYPICALLY THE FAVORED DIRECTION FOR VERY LOW VIS AT KCMX... BUT GIVEN EXPECTED WIND STRENGTH...LIFR/VLIFR APPEAR LIKELY. WITH WINDS/SNOW NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN IFR THERE...BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE. AT KSAW... CONDITIONS WON`T DETERIORATE BLO IFR UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH WILL PLACE A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND PASS A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ249-250-264>266. GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263>265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1126 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 INCREASED WIND/GUSTS OVER SWRN CWA IN AREA OF FCST HRRR MAXIMUM TODAY. ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN SAME GENERAL VICINITY. BIG QUESTION REMAINS AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR CONSIDERING RECENT INCREASE IN ICE COVERAGE. RECENTLY EXPANDED AREA OF ICE COVERAGE HAS APPROXIMATE THICKNESS LESS THAN 4 INCHES ACCORDING TO ENV CAN ICE SERVICE CHART. WITH OPEN AREA ALONG NSHORE AND INCREASING NW WINDS SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE OPENINGS AND CREATE ADDITIONAL FISSURES IN EXISTING ICE COVER. IN THEORY THIS WILL INCREASE PROBABILITY OF LATENT HEAT CONTRIBUTION. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE TO CU FIELD STRETCHING FROM CTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NRN BAYFIELD COUNTY. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH WINDS. AS OF 09Z...THIS FRONT WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED WEST. AHEAD OF IT THERE ARE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN LIGHT BANDS AND TEMPORARILY LOWERED VISIBILITIES. LITTLE...IF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 TODAY THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A STRONG ISALLOBARIC RISE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND BETWEEN THAT AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLOW 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AT TIMES AND FOR CERTAIN AREAS TO NEAR 30 MPH. THIS IS GOING TO TAKE THE FRESH SNOW THAT WE GOT OVERNIGHT AND REALLY BLOW IT AROUND...AND EXPOSED AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SINCE WE ONLY GOT AN INCH LAST NIGHT...AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SINCE THE RECENT FREEZING RAIN EVENT THE IMPRESSIVE SNOW PACK WE HAVE IS NOT GOING TO ALL BLOW AWAY. IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WE ALREADY HAVE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE DELAYED START TIME OF ADVISORY TO 00Z THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO A WIND CHILL WARNING WITH VALUES PUSHING 40 BELOW LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE MENTIONING THIS CONCERN IN BOTH WSW AND HWO THIS MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHEN WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT...FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AN AMAZING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. THE ONE ISSUE THAT MAKES THIS EVENT CONDITIONAL IS THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. MONDAY THERE WERE STILL LARGE ICE FREE AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE OPEN WATERS AREAS. HOWEVER... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A LOT MORE ICE HAS FORMED...AND THE LAKE IS NEARLY 90 PERCENT COMPLETELY ICE COVERED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. SOME OPEN AREAS REMAIN...BUT IT IS A LARGE QUESTION MARK AS TO WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. SO...WE ARE EITHER GOING TO GET LITTLE IF ANY SNOW...OR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 6 PLUS INCHES OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE COUNTIES OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL MENTION THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT IN THE PUBLIC PRODUCT...AS WELL AS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE SNOW BANDS ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND GO FROM THERE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AND THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WILL PROBABLY BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. I LEANED ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY WEIGHTED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY THIS FAR OUT. THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SNOWFALL CHANCES AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION CLOUDY. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY GET AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL OFFER A VERY BRIEF WARMUP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN REACHES OF CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST...BUT WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND TIMING. THE GFS TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND MOSTLY DRY. THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS THOUGH BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. ALSO...THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT CONSIDERING THE CURRENT HEAVY ICE COVER OVER THE LAKE. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE ICE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LAKE NEEDS ABOUT 80 PERCENT OR MORE ICE COVER BEFORE THERE IS ANY SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW. EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION...PROVIDING DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND BLSN OVER NE MN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND HYR...DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND BACK TO THE W/SW TONIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -1 -21 -3 -5 / 30 10 0 60 INL -4 -29 -1 -3 / 20 10 0 50 BRD 0 -22 -1 -5 / 10 10 0 20 HYR 4 -21 -1 -5 / 50 40 0 40 ASX 4 -15 -2 -3 / 80 90 10 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>037. WI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001-006-007. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ002>004-008-009. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LE SHORT TERM...LE LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1034 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 INCREASED WIND/GUSTS OVER SWRN CWA IN AREA OF FCST HRRR MAXIMUM TODAY. ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN SAME GENERAL VICINITY. BIG QUESTION REMAINS AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR CONSIDERING RECENT INCREASE IN ICE COVERAGE. RECENTLY EXPANDED AREA OF ICE COVERAGE HAS APPROXIMATE THICKNESS LESS THAN 4 INCHES ACCORDING TO ENV CAN ICE SERVICE CHART. WITH OPEN AREA ALONG NSHORE AND INCREASING NW WINDS SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE OPENINGS AND CREATE ADDITIONAL FISSURES IN EXISTING ICE COVER. IN THEORY THIS WILL INCREASE PROBABILITY OF LATENT HEAT CONTRIBUTION. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE TO CU FIELD STRETCHING FROM CTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NRN BAYFIELD COUNTY. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH WINDS. AS OF 09Z...THIS FRONT WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED WEST. AHEAD OF IT THERE ARE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN LIGHT BANDS AND TEMPORARILY LOWERED VISIBILITIES. LITTLE...IF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 TODAY THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A STRONG ISALLOBARIC RISE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND BETWEEN THAT AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLOW 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AT TIMES AND FOR CERTAIN AREAS TO NEAR 30 MPH. THIS IS GOING TO TAKE THE FRESH SNOW THAT WE GOT OVERNIGHT AND REALLY BLOW IT AROUND...AND EXPOSED AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SINCE WE ONLY GOT AN INCH LAST NIGHT...AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SINCE THE RECENT FREEZING RAIN EVENT THE IMPRESSIVE SNOW PACK WE HAVE IS NOT GOING TO ALL BLOW AWAY. IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WE ALREADY HAVE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE DELAYED START TIME OF ADVISORY TO 00Z THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO A WIND CHILL WARNING WITH VALUES PUSHING 40 BELOW LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE MENTIONING THIS CONCERN IN BOTH WSW AND HWO THIS MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHEN WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT...FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AN AMAZING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. THE ONE ISSUE THAT MAKES THIS EVENT CONDITIONAL IS THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. MONDAY THERE WERE STILL LARGE ICE FREE AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE OPEN WATERS AREAS. HOWEVER... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A LOT MORE ICE HAS FORMED...AND THE LAKE IS NEARLY 90 PERCENT COMPLETELY ICE COVERED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. SOME OPEN AREAS REMAIN...BUT IT IS A LARGE QUESTION MARK AS TO WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. SO...WE ARE EITHER GOING TO GET LITTLE IF ANY SNOW...OR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 6 PLUS INCHES OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE COUNTIES OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL MENTION THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT IN THE PUBLIC PRODUCT...AS WELL AS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE SNOW BANDS ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND GO FROM THERE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AND THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WILL PROBABLY BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. I LEANED ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY WEIGHTED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY THIS FAR OUT. THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SNOWFALL CHANCES AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION CLOUDY. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY GET AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL OFFER A VERY BRIEF WARMUP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN REACHES OF CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST...BUT WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND TIMING. THE GFS TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND MOSTLY DRY. THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS THOUGH BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. ALSO...THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT CONSIDERING THE CURRENT HEAVY ICE COVER OVER THE LAKE. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE ICE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LAKE NEEDS ABOUT 80 PERCENT OR MORE ICE COVER BEFORE THERE IS ANY SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW. EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION...PROVIDING DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DUE TO -SN AND BLSN IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN. STRONG AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME GRADUAL CLEARING/SCATTERING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WEAKENING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -1 -21 -2 -5 / 30 10 0 60 INL -4 -29 0 -3 / 20 10 0 50 BRD 0 -22 -1 -5 / 10 10 0 20 HYR 4 -21 -1 -5 / 50 40 0 40 ASX 4 -15 0 -3 / 90 90 20 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>037. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ038. WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CANNON SYNOPSIS...LE SHORT TERM...LE LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014 H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE SERN STATES. UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...SECONDARY SHORT WAVES WERE NOTED ACROSS SRN UTAH AND SRN COLORADO. RIDGING EXTENDED FROM OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS INTO THE YUKON AND EASTERN ALASKA. DECENT HT RISES WERE NOTED OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF STATES FROM MN WEST TO IDAHO. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER SRN COLORADO...CONTINUED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO THIS MORNING...AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WIDE SWATH OF SNOW FROM THE SWRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SWRN PORTIONS OF DUNDY COUNTY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST RANGED FROM 19 AT BROKEN BOW...TO 25 AT OGALLALA...THEDFORD AND VALENTINE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014 A WARM FRONT...LOCATED BETWEEN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTH TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM OVER 15 DEGREES BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 12Z FRIDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO STAY UP BETWEEN 10KTS AND 15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OCCURRING AROUND MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOWS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES...YET EXPECTING TEMPERATURES AT 12Z ROUGHLY FROM 15 TO 30 DEGREES. FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY ARE THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THAT TOPIC. IN TERMS OF HIGHS...THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GFS HAS TEMPERATURES IN SW NEBRASKA UP NEAR 8C WHILE THE NAM HAS ABOUT 4-5C. IN TURN...STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS QUITE THE RANGE...FROM 53F TO 62F AT KLBF. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR GUIDANCE TO BE TOO COOL MOST INSTANCES...SO FELT LIKE THE 52 FROM THE MET WAS TOO COOL...YET THERE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND DON/T EXPECT MIXING TO 700MB WHICH WOULD BE NEEDED FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S. THIS TREND WAS SIMILAR ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AREA WIDE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. WITH MIXING EXPECTED BETWEEN 850MB AND 800MB...WINDS AT THOSE LEVELS WILL BE 40 TO 45 KTS. THE FORECAST WILL PUT SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE UPPER 20S WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WHICH IS JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. DID CONTEMPLATE ADDING BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST FOR WHAT HAS BECOME THE FAVORED AREA FOR IT...ROUGHLY FROM LEWELLEN TO HAYES CENTER AS DID GET THIS TO OCCUR THE OTHER DAY WITH WINDS NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY YET ON THE WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT AT THIS POINT AND NEXT SHIFT CAN PUT IT IN IF THE STRONGER WINDS LOOK MORE LIKELY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE THIS WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...STALLING FROM AROUND VALENTINE TO BROKEN BOW BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A LIMITED THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. ATTM...LIFT IN THE MID LAYERS IS RATHER LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20 PERCENT FOR NOW...AND HAVE CONFINED THEM ALONG THE SD/NEBR BORDER...WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS DEEPEST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL UNDERNEATH THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ELSEWHERE...LOW TEMPS WILL BE ELEVATED BY PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE COLD PRONE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. ON SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST BY LATE MORNING. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WEST OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MOST THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE FRONT MAY NOT PUSH THROUGH HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH THIS MORNINGS RUNS...TRENDED HIGH TEMPS DOWNWARD IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MIXED INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SO A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY...ON SUNDAY A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY MORNING...TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO HIGHS SUNDAY...AND THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS HAVE DEMONSTRATED SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS MORNINGS RUNS. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...AND THUS IS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY...WHILE THE SLOWER GFS SOLN IS WARMER. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLN...LOCATIONS OVER NRN NEBRASKA...WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...AM ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE ARCTIC AIR HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDOWN. INHERITED FCST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FCST. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM -22C IN THE NORTHEAST TO -10 IN THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL LEAD TO DECENT NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HIT THIS IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILLS AT...OR NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IS DECENT. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MODIFYING SLIGHTLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED WITH A POSSIBLE PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEKEND AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014 980 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN HUDSON BAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO SRN HUDSON BAY AND DEEPEN TO AROUND 975 MB BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL ROCKIES TO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 30025G35KT FRIDAY. THE FCST AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR STRONGER WINDS PERHAPS REACHING 30030G40KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NRN NEB. THE RAP MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE NAM AND GEM REG MODELS ALSO SUGGEST LOCAL IFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 355 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014 PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FRIDAY AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TEENS RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT IN AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CRESCENT LAKE NWR TO OGALLALA TO CURTIS...PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 204/210/219. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT DEWPOINTS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TEENS WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THEM. IF THIS OCCURS...WILL INSTEAD SEE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 20 TO 25 PERCENT. EITHER WAY...A DAY TO PAY ATTENTION TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF HUMIDITY AND AS IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL PORTION OF THE DISTRICTS MAY REACH THESE LEVELS ANYWAY...DID NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...BROOKS LONG TERM...CLB AVIATION...CDC FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1141 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT. GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS. ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WAA/CAA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH WINDS. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH TODAY...AND WHILE IT IS CURRENTLY STILL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WONT BE TOO MUCH LONGER BEFORE IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS USHERING IN GUSTY WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF...BUT ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WONT BE UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. WONT BE SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...REMAINING N/NWRLY. SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...AND CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FLAKES AT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT CEILINGS VFR AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS AT TIMES DIPPING IN TO THE UPPER END OF MVFR CRITERIA. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ072-073-082-083. KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...HEINLEIN SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...FAY AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
638 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT. GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS. ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WAA/CAA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ072-073-082-083. KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...HEINLEIN SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...FAY AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
558 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT. GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS. ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WAA/CAA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ072-073-082-083. KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...FAY AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
517 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT. GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS. ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WAA/CAA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS UNTIL 15Z OR 16Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ072-073-082-083. KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...FAY AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1253 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO DECREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN CWA. ALSO INCREASED DEWPOINTS CENTRAL AND EAST AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN CWA. INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS WE LIE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF STRATUS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH UPPER AIR PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A RESULT OF CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND TROUGHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE GULF. SKY COVER HAS BEEN VARIABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT THE CWA CURRENTLY SEEING A BIT OF A BREAK AND GETTING A BETTER SHOT OF SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SURFACE...A NOTABLE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SET UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO WRN KS...JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NRN TX INTO MN/WI. THIS HAS LEFT THE CWA WITH SOUTH...TO GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AS THAT FRONT HAS INCHED CLOSER...AND HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL SEE A RISE IN TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF THE WINDS CAN GET SWITCHED TO THE WEST SOON...OTHERWISE TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL SIDE...AT 3PM SITTING IN THE MID 20S IN THE EAST TO MID 30S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT WITH THEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA...SO WILL THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. NOT TO SAY THERE WILL BE NO IMPACT...THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY MIDDAY MOST/IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW /MAINLY THE AFTERNOON/...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING SOUTH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT THE HIGHEST...WITH A FEW MODELS TRYING TO SHOW THE CHANCE FOR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP SLIDING INTO THE AREA...BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRETTY DRY...PROB WOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES IF ANYTHING DID FALL. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST INCLUDES BUMPING UP WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS /ESP THE AFTERNOON/...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES AFFECTING THE CWA...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADV SPEEDS. ALSO TRENDED BACK HIGHS FOR TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES WITH THAT NEXT BATCH OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN...WITH FORECAST CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 30S IN THE SW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 ALOFT: DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE AND THE TROF OVER THE E WILL AMPLIFY WED-THU. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THE INCREASED AMPLITUDE WILL RESULT IN BOUTS OF CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS. HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BLOSSOM TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FRI AND REMAIN ABOVE 2 SD THRU MON. THIS WILL FORCE MORE BITTER COLD INTO THE ERN USA AND THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS COLD. KEEP IN MIND THAT BITTER COLD IN NW FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DOESNT LAST LONG HERE. WE NEED A TROF IN THE W AND THAT MAY BE COMING IN EARLY FEB. THRU THE END OF THE MONTH THIS MEANS WILD TEMP SWINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH DECIDEDLY MORE BRUSHES WITH WINTERS COLD. SEE THE PATTERN SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON WHAT MAY BE COMING. AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE BENIGN TAIL ENDS OF TROFS ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU 12AM-12PM THU...12AM-12PM FRI. UNCERTAINTY ON SUN-MON BUT SOMETHING WILL BE APPROACHING. ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT WE WILL CONTINUE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET STREAKS FOR PRODUCING ANY WX. SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES /NEARLY 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL SLIP S THRU THE PLAINS...CROSSING THE FCST AREA THU. DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND A SURFACE TROF WILL FOLLOW FRI IN THE "WARM" SECTOR OF VERY DEEP LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE IN FRI NIGHT...BUT THE CORE OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL MISS TO THE E. HIGH PRES RAPIDLY DARTS THRU THE REGION SAT. A CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO MT LATE...WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS NEB/KS. THIS CLIPPER WILL RACE ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR TOP BY DAYBREAK SUN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY SUN- TUE...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROF ALOFT AND THIS COLD SURGE. THE GEM AND EC ARE SHARPER AND MORE POTENT THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENT 1-DAY BLAST OF ARCTIC COLD. THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD? HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW WITH MODERATION IN TEMPS TUE-WED. HAZARDS: A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE 10PM WED-11AM THU FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WIND EVENT FRI. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS. DAILY DETAILS... WED NIGHT: COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/ CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS WERE ACTUALLY INCREASED 4-7F DUE TO WINDS AND CLOUDS WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART OVER THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO BE DOWN TO -25F NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BEFORE MIDNIGHT VIA THE BURST OF CAA. WINDS WILL DECREASE THEREAFTER...BUT THAT IS WHEN TEMPS WILL COMPENSATE. THU: A STEADY WIND OF 10-15 MPH IS EXPECTED AT DAWN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE SUB-ZERO EVERYWHERE...BUT COLDEST FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. ANY LEFTOVER HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SRN SKY DEPARTS LEAVING BRILLIANT SUNSHINE...BUT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 3-4F USING A 50-50 BLEND OF GFS AND GEM 2M TEMPS...WHICH NOW PUTS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS. THU NIGHT: INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. RISING TEMPS APPEAR PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A NON- TRADITIONAL TEMP CURVE IS IN THE FCST. FRI: MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. THAT COMPLICATES TEMPS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 49-59F...WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. SAT: DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS...TEMPS COULD BE WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING. BELIEVE YOU CAN PROBABLY SAFELY ADD ANOTHER 5F TO THE FCST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN 50-60F...WARMEST SW FROM BEAVER CITY TO PLAINVILLE KS. SUN: FAIR AND DRY. WE FINISH UP ANOTHER 3-DAY STRETCH OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. MON-TUE: COLDER THEN TEMPS PLUNGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL. PATTERN: ENSEMBLES FROM MULTIPLE CENTERS PERSIST IN INDICATING A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVES COME FEB. THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE IS FCST TO BREAK DOWN WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PACIFIC. THIS TELECONNECTS TO A WRN USA TROF. THE BIAS CORRECTED GEFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PNA PATTERN TURNING NEGATIVE. THIS SUGGESTS WE MAY NOT ESCAPE THIS WINTER WITHOUT SUFFERING THE BRUNT OF A BLIZZARD OR TWO. OVERALL DEC-JAN HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL. THAT COULD CHANGE. ARCTIC COLD POURING INTO A WRN USA TROF MEANS THAT LONGER STRETCHES OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPS BECOME MORE LIKELY. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SIGNS OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBILITIES AROUND FEB 2-3...WHICH WOULD DELIVER SERIOUS WINTER COLD AND "POSSIBLY" SNOW. ALL THIS SAID...ARE THE ENSEMBLES CORRECT? THE POOL OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS REMAINS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. HARD TO IGNORE THE EFFECTS GIVEN THAT POOL HAS SUPPORTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 13 MONTHS! WE DID SEE A PATTERN CHANGE FROM DEC93-JAN94 TO FEB DESPITE A NE PACIFIC WARM POOL. SO IT CAN HAPPEN. IF IT DOES...BELIEVE WE HAVE SOME NASTY PERIODS OF WINTER STILL IN THE OFFING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS UNTIL 15Z OR 16Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HEINLEIN SHORT TERM...ADO LONG TERM...HALBLAUB AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH UPPER AIR PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A RESULT OF CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND TROUGHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE GULF. SKY COVER HAS BEEN VARIABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT THE CWA CURRENTLY SEEING A BIT OF A BREAK AND GETTING A BETTER SHOT OF SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SURFACE...A NOTABLE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SET UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO WRN KS...JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NRN TX INTO MN/WI. THIS HAS LEFT THE CWA WITH SOUTH...TO GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AS THAT FRONT HAS INCHED CLOSER...AND HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL SEE A RISE IN TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF THE WINDS CAN GET SWITCHED TO THE WEST SOON...OTHERWISE TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL SIDE...AT 3PM SITTING IN THE MID 20S IN THE EAST TO MID 30S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT WITH THEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA...SO WILL THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. NOT TO SAY THERE WILL BE NO IMPACT...THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY MIDDAY MOST/IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW /MAINLY THE AFTERNOON/...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING SOUTH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT THE HIGHEST...WITH A FEW MODELS TRYING TO SHOW THE CHANCE FOR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP SLIDING INTO THE AREA...BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRETTY DRY...PROB WOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES IF ANYTHING DID FALL. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST INCLUDES BUMPING UP WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS /ESP THE AFTERNOON/...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES AFFECTING THE CWA...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADV SPEEDS. ALSO TRENDED BACK HIGHS FOR TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES WITH THAT NEXT BATCH OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN...WITH FORECAST CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 30S IN THE SW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 ALOFT: DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE AND THE TROF OVER THE E WILL AMPLIFY WED-THU. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THE INCREASED AMPLITUDE WILL RESULT IN BOUTS OF CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS. HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BLOSSOM TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FRI AND REMAIN ABOVE 2 SD THRU MON. THIS WILL FORCE MORE BITTER COLD INTO THE ERN USA AND THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS COLD. KEEP IN MIND THAT BITTER COLD IN NW FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DOESNT LAST LONG HERE. WE NEED A TROF IN THE W AND THAT MAY BE COMING IN EARLY FEB. THRU THE END OF THE MONTH THIS MEANS WILD TEMP SWINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH DECIDEDLY MORE BRUSHES WITH WINTERS COLD. SEE THE PATTERN SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON WHAT MAY BE COMING. AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE BENIGN TAIL ENDS OF TROFS ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU 12AM-12PM THU...12AM-12PM FRI. UNCERTAINTY ON SUN-MON BUT SOMETHING WILL BE APPROACHING. ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT WE WILL CONTINUE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET STREAKS FOR PRODUCING ANY WX. SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES /NEARLY 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL SLIP S THRU THE PLAINS...CROSSING THE FCST AREA THU. DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND A SURFACE TROF WILL FOLLOW FRI IN THE "WARM" SECTOR OF VERY DEEP LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE IN FRI NIGHT...BUT THE CORE OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL MISS TO THE E. HIGH PRES RAPIDLY DARTS THRU THE REGION SAT. A CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO MT LATE...WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS NEB/KS. THIS CLIPPER WILL RACE ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR TOP BY DAYBREAK SUN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY SUN- TUE...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROF ALOFT AND THIS COLD SURGE. THE GEM AND EC ARE SHARPER AND MORE POTENT THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENT 1-DAY BLAST OF ARCTIC COLD. THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD? HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW WITH MODERATION IN TEMPS TUE-WED. HAZARDS: A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE 10PM WED-11AM THU FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WIND EVENT FRI. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS. DAILY DETAILS... WED NIGHT: COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/ CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS WERE ACTUALLY INCREASED 4-7F DUE TO WINDS AND CLOUDS WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART OVER THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO BE DOWN TO -25F NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BEFORE MIDNIGHT VIA THE BURST OF CAA. WINDS WILL DECREASE THEREAFTER...BUT THAT IS WHEN TEMPS WILL COMPENSATE. THU: A STEADY WIND OF 10-15 MPH IS EXPECTED AT DAWN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE SUB-ZERO EVERYWHERE...BUT COLDEST FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. ANY LEFTOVER HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SRN SKY DEPARTS LEAVING BRILLIANT SUNSHINE...BUT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 3-4F USING A 50-50 BLEND OF GFS AND GEM 2M TEMPS...WHICH NOW PUTS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS. THU NIGHT: INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. RISING TEMPS APPEAR PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A NON- TRADITIONAL TEMP CURVE IS IN THE FCST. FRI: MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. THAT COMPLICATES TEMPS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 49-59F...WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. SAT: DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS...TEMPS COULD BE WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING. BELIEVE YOU CAN PROBABLY SAFELY ADD ANOTHER 5F TO THE FCST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN 50-60F...WARMEST SW FROM BEAVER CITY TO PLAINVILLE KS. SUN: FAIR AND DRY. WE FINISH UP ANOTHER 3-DAY STRETCH OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. MON-TUE: COLDER THEN TEMPS PLUNGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL. PATTERN: ENSEMBLES FROM MULTIPLE CENTERS PERSIST IN INDICATING A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVES COME FEB. THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE IS FCST TO BREAK DOWN WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PACIFIC. THIS TELECONNECTS TO A WRN USA TROF. THE BIAS CORRECTED GEFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PNA PATTERN TURNING NEGATIVE. THIS SUGGESTS WE MAY NOT ESCAPE THIS WINTER WITHOUT SUFFERING THE BRUNT OF A BLIZZARD OR TWO. OVERALL DEC-JAN HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL. THAT COULD CHANGE. ARCTIC COLD POURING INTO A WRN USA TROF MEANS THAT LONGER STRETCHES OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPS BECOME MORE LIKELY. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SIGNS OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBILITIES AROUND FEB 2-3...WHICH WOULD DELIVER SERIOUS WINTER COLD AND "POSSIBLY" SNOW. ALL THIS SAID...ARE THE ENSEMBLES CORRECT? THE POOL OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS REMAINS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. HARD TO IGNORE THE EFFECTS GIVEN THAT POOL HAS SUPPORTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 13 MONTHS! WE DID SEE A PATTERN CHANGE FROM DEC93-JAN94 TO FEB DESPITE A NE PACIFIC WARM POOL. SO IT CAN HAPPEN. IF IT DOES...BELIEVE WE HAVE SOME NASTY PERIODS OF WINTER STILL IN THE OFFING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS UNTIL 15Z OR 16Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADO LONG TERM...HALBLAUB AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
641 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COLD AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER WEATHER THEN RETURNS BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 641 PM EST THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND OTHER THAN SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT T/TD DATA AND SKY COVER TRENDS NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT COLD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS VERY THIN CIRRUS LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND QUESTION IS WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON OVERNIGHT RADIATIVE COOLING IN OTHERWISE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE...BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE THAT HIGH LEVEL RH WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ABOUT 06Z. COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...IT SHOULD RESULT IN RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS...DON/T SEE A REASON TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS AND TEMPS BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM -7F AT SPRINGFIELD TO -20 TO -28F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NE KINGDOM. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...GENERALLY LOOKING FOR -10 TO -20F. WIND CHILL WILL NOT BE A PARTICULAR ISSUE WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5 MPH OR LESS. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT IN A RECENTLY ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF COLD BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS PICKING UP TO 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTN FLURRY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH POPS 10-20 PERCENT...BUT GENERALLY ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. AIR MASS MODERATES SLIGHTLY AS WELL WITH DEVELOPING S-SW FLOW...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. STAYED ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW BASED ON PREVAILING S-SW FLOW AND AS A CARRY OVER OF LOW MOS TEMP BIAS OBSERVED THIS AFTN. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 10F EXCEPT MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR FAR NERN VT. DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INDUCES A STRONGER SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/GEORGIAN BAY VCNTY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASING P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPS LIKELY RISE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (INTO THE TEENS) AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOULD SEE 15-25 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. POPS INCREASE 40-70 PERCENT RANGE 06-12Z SATURDAY...HIGHEST WEST. SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN SPOTS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH LOWEST AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS NRN NY...INDUCING BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM (PW VALUES ONLY 0.1-0.2")...SO TOTAL SNOWFALL AMTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-3" RANGE. CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTN WITH GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES. MAY SEE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY...BUT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVISORIES BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. SURFACE LOW TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. SWD EXTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD THRU THE REGION DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND SHIFT AND FALLING TEMPS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN/CENTRAL GREENS BEFORE AIR MASS DRIES OUT. AN ADDITION INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF. TEMPS WILL FALL STEADILY SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -25C ACROSS NRN NY BY 06Z SUNDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO +5F ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VT...BUT 0 TO -10F ACROSS NRN NY AND FAR NRN VT WITH THIS NEXT ARCTIC SURGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 221 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING INTO SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HRS...SHIFTING EAST OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE GREAT LKS REGION. MDL DIFFERENCES AS TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH LATEST GFS TAKING SYSTEM OVER THE CWA AND THE LATEST ECMWF TAKING CLIPPER JUST TO OUR NORTH. GFS SOLUTION WILL BRING BETTER CHANCE FOR -SW...BUT WILL OPT FOR A SPLIT OF THE TWO MDL RUNS AND KEEP SYSTEM TRACKING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. GFS IS FASTER CLRING PRECIP AS WELL DUE TO MORE OF A WEST-EAST TRACK VERSUS A NE TRACK IN THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LINGERING -SW ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM W/ HIR ELEV SEEING BEST CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE -SW FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AFTNOON/EARLY EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...SFC RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST...KEEPING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA RE-ENFORCED BY A COUPLE TROUGHS PASSING THRU THE GREAT LKS REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME LIGHT -SW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE DACKS WITH SW FLOW COMING OFF LK ONTARIO. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS AND OVERNGT LOWS AS EACH SUCCESSIVE SYSTEM BRINGS DOWN A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF CD CANADIAN AIR. MON NGT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLDEST WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER REGION BFR SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. TEMPS TO RANGE HERE FROM -5F TO -15F BUT WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT FROM EXITING WNW UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR COND WITH SCT-BKN LOW/MID CLDS RANGING FROM 4KFT TO 15KFT. SOME MVFR FG/VCSH FOR SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY. NNW WINDS 5-10KTS BECM WSW 5-10KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY SSW 5-15KTS BY 18Z-20Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED HZ/IC POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS/BTV BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE WL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. ARCTIC BOUNDARY SWINGS ACRS OUR TAF SITES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR LIKELY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SFC HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING INTO TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... WITH ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION...HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE FOLLOWING: 1/24 BTV -22F/1948 MSS -30F/1976 MPV -22F/2011 1V4 -34F/1907 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JN CLIMATE...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
629 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE BRINGS A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. THE WARM UP WILL BE BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND USHERS IN COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS VERY THIN CIRRUS LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND QUESTION IS WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON OVERNIGHT RADIATIVE COOLING IN OTHERWISE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE...BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE THAT HIGH LEVEL RH WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ABOUT 06Z. COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...IT SHOULD RESULT IN RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS...DON/T SEE A REASON TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS AND TEMPS BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM -7F AT SPRINGFIELD TO -20 TO -28F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NE KINGDOM. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...GENERALLY LOOKING FOR -10 TO -20F. WIND CHILL WILL NOT BE A PARTICULAR ISSUE WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5 MPH OR LESS. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT IN A RECENTLY ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF COLD BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS PICKING UP TO 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTN FLURRY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH POPS 10-20 PERCENT...BUT GENERALLY ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. AIR MASS MODERATES SLIGHTLY AS WELL WITH DEVELOPING S-SW FLOW...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. STAYED ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW BASED ON PREVAILING S-SW FLOW AND AS A CARRY OVER OF LOW MOS TEMP BIAS OBSERVED THIS AFTN. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 10F EXCEPT MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR FAR NERN VT. DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INDUCES A STRONGER SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/GEORGIAN BAY VCNTY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASING P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPS LIKELY RISE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (INTO THE TEENS) AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOULD SEE 15-25 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. POPS INCREASE 40-70 PERCENT RANGE 06-12Z SATURDAY...HIGHEST WEST. SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN SPOTS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH LOWEST AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS NRN NY...INDUCING BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM (PW VALUES ONLY 0.1-0.2")...SO TOTAL SNOWFALL AMTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-3" RANGE. CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTN WITH GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES. MAY SEE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY...BUT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVISORIES BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. SURFACE LOW TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. SWD EXTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD THRU THE REGION DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND SHIFT AND FALLING TEMPS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN/CENTRAL GREENS BEFORE AIR MASS DRIES OUT. AN ADDITION INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF. TEMPS WILL FALL STEADILY SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -25C ACROSS NRN NY BY 06Z SUNDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO +5F ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VT...BUT 0 TO -10F ACROSS NRN NY AND FAR NRN VT WITH THIS NEXT ARCTIC SURGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 221 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING INTO SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HRS...SHIFTING EAST OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE GREAT LKS REGION. MDL DIFFERENCES AS TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH LATEST GFS TAKING SYSTEM OVER THE CWA AND THE LATEST ECMWF TAKING CLIPPER JUST TO OUR NORTH. GFS SOLUTION WILL BRING BETTER CHANCE FOR -SW...BUT WILL OPT FOR A SPLIT OF THE TWO MDL RUNS AND KEEP SYSTEM TRACKING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. GFS IS FASTER CLRING PRECIP AS WELL DUE TO MORE OF A WEST-EAST TRACK VERSUS A NE TRACK IN THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LINGERING -SW ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM W/ HIR ELEV SEEING BEST CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE -SW FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AFTNOON/EARLY EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...SFC RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST...KEEPING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA RE-ENFORCED BY A COUPLE TROUGHS PASSING THRU THE GREAT LKS REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME LIGHT -SW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE DACKS WITH SW FLOW COMING OFF LK ONTARIO. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS AND OVERNGT LOWS AS EACH SUCCESSIVE SYSTEM BRINGS DOWN A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF CD CANADIAN AIR. MON NGT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLDEST WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER REGION BFR SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. TEMPS TO RANGE HERE FROM -5F TO -15F BUT WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT FROM EXITING WNW UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR COND WITH SCT-BKN LOW/MID CLDS RANGING FROM 4KFT TO 15KFT. SOME MVFR FG/VCSH FOR SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY. NNW WINDS 5-10KTS BECM WSW 5-10KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY SSW 5-15KTS BY 18Z-20Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED HZ/IC POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS/BTV BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE WL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. ARCTIC BOUNDARY SWINGS ACRS OUR TAF SITES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR LIKELY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SFC HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING INTO TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... WITH ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION...HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE FOLLOWING: 1/24 BTV -22F/1948 MSS -30F/1976 MPV -22F/2011 1V4 -34F/1907 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JN CLIMATE...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1207 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WHILE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 937 AM WED...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS TAIL OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE LINGERING SHOWERS. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS LATE MORNING...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW 10F IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WIND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WINDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS HAVE DROPPED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW THIS CRITERIA. SO WILL ALSO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO EXPIRE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... AS OF 4 AM WED...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TEENS INLAND TO LOW 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY REINFORCEMENT OF THE DEEP EASTERN US TROF LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE W/NW DOMINATED FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC FRONT BUT STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS UPR 30S N TO LOWER 40S S. A DRY COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD IN THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRI MORNING. VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S. CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 45-50F DURING THE WEEKEND. SAT LOOKS RATHER WINDY AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS ESPCLY NEAR THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONT. HIGHS NEXT TUESDAY FALL BACK AGAIN INTO THE 30S AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SPREADS S INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... AS OF 1206 PM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAVE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME CONTINUED SNOW AND LOW CIGS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AM EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR AREA WIDE BY MID AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IFR IN SOUTHERN TAFS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1002 AM WED...NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE HAVE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL SEE A SMALL LOOSENING OF GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND IN THE TEENS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET IN NORTHERN WATERS AND AROUND 6 FEET IN SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL KEEP SCA GOING WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND WILL GO FROM GALE TO SCA IN THOSE AREAS. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 5-15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...GENERALLY ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS OCCASIONAL REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGES LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS/SEAS. BRIEF BREAK IN HIGHER WINDS/SEAS FIRST PART OF THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WNW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE LATE THU AS FRONT CROSSES...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS LATER THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THESE NW WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 FT OVER THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL WTRS EARLY FRI. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATER FRI AND FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. W/SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER FRI NIGHT AND ESPCLY SAT AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE STRONG SW WINDS SAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 11 FEET OVER THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 6 FT ALL WTRS SUN AS WINDS DIMINISH. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 22ND: TEMP YEAR CAPE HATTERAS 26 1970 MANTEO 25 1970 OCRACOKE 30 1970 NEW BERN 30 1970 WILLIAMSTON 31 1994 KINSTON 19 1985 GREENVILLE 27 1970 BAYBORO 29 1970 MOREHEAD CITY 31 1970 WASHINGTON 32 2011 && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150- 152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...CGG SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...RF/CGG MARINE...RF/CGG CLIMATE...CQD/SEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1003 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WHILE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 937 AM WED...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS TAIL OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE LINGERING SHOWERS. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS LATE MORNING...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW 10F IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WIND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WINDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS HAVE DROPPED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW THIS CRITERIA. SO WILL ALSO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO EXPIRE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... AS OF 4 AM WED...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TEENS INLAND TO LOW 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY REINFORCEMENT OF THE DEEP EASTERN US TROF LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE W/NW DOMINATED FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC FRONT BUT STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS UPR 30S N TO LOWER 40S S. A DRY COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD IN THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRI MORNING. VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S. CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 45-50F DURING THE WEEKEND. SAT LOOKS RATHER WINDY AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS ESPCLY NEAR THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONT. HIGHS NEXT TUESDAY FALL BACK AGAIN INTO THE 30S AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SPREADS S INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 AM WED...AREA OF STCU ADVECTING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AS WELL AS BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1002 AM WED...NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE HAVE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL SEE A SMALL LOOSENING OF GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND IN THE TEENS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET IN NORTHERN WATERS AND AROUND 6 FEET IN SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL KEEP SCA GOING WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND WILL GO FROM GALE TO SCA IN THOSE AREAS. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 5-15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...GENERALLY ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS OCCASIONAL REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGES LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS/SEAS. BRIEF BREAK IN HIGHER WINDS/SEAS FIRST PART OF THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WNW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE LATE THU AS FRONT CROSSES...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS LATER THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THESE NW WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 FT OVER THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL WTRS EARLY FRI. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATER FRI AND FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. W/SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER FRI NIGHT AND ESPCLY SAT AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE STRONG SW WINDS SAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 11 FEET OVER THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 6 FT ALL WTRS SUN AS WINDS DIMINISH. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 22ND: TEMP YEAR CAPE HATTERAS 26 1970 MANTEO 25 1970 OCRACOKE 30 1970 NEW BERN 30 1970 WILLIAMSTON 31 1994 KINSTON 19 1985 GREENVILLE 27 1970 BAYBORO 29 1970 MOREHEAD CITY 31 1970 WASHINGTON 32 2011 && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...CGG SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...RF/SK MARINE...RF/CGG CLIMATE...CQD/SEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
658 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 655 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BLIZZARD HITTING IN FULL FORCE OVER THE AREA AS ARCTIC FRONT IS NOW MOVING TOWARD WATERTOWN SD AND WILLMAR MN. FACEBOOK POSTS AND OTHER REPORTS INDICATE WIDESPREAD ZERO VSBY IN MOST OF THE AREA AND EVEN IN TOWN/CITIES VSBYS ONE QUARTER MILE. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH PAST FEW HOURS. 925 MB WINDS ON RAP STILL HAVE 40 KTS IN THE NRN-CNTRL RRV THRU 15Z AND INTO THE SRN VALLEY INTO 18Z. SO EXPECT SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF THESE CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 WHOA WHAT A NIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT AND WIND PUSH NOW MOVING SOUTH THRU THE CENTRAL RRV HAVING PASSED GFK-RDR-CKN SINCE 3 AM. VSBYS QUICKLY GO TO ZERO TO 100 FT IN OPEN COUNTRY AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KTS. SIMILAR WINDS UPSTREAM TO WINNIPEG CURRENTLY AND WENT AHD AND ISSUED BLIZZARD WARNING JUST PRIOR TO 3 AM BASED ON INITIAL REPORTS IN PEMBINA-CAVALIER COUNTIES. 925 MB SHOW 40KTS TO MIX DOWN AND HAVE HAD 41 KTS IN WALHALLA. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AND BEST COLD ADVECTION NOW THRU 15Z...THEN THINGS START TO LEVEL OFF 18Z-21Z PERIOD. WENT AHD WITH BLIZZARD WARNING THRU 21Z FOR NOW...AS DO THNK IT WILL GET A LOT BETTER AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTN. ABR/MPX GOING BLIZZARD WARNINGS AS WELL IN THEIR WIND PRONE AREAS TODAY. DID GO WINTER WX ADV IN THE FAR EAST AS WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO 30 KTS THERE TOO AND NEW 2 INCHES OF FLUFF FELL IN BEMIDJI AREA YESTERDAY SO WOULD THINK SOME LOCAL BLOWING/DRIFTING LIKELY. IT WAS STRESSED IN ALL PRODUCTS THIS IS A GROUND BLIZZARD OUT OF TOWN BLIZZARD AND NOT IN CITY/TOWNS WHERE VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT TIMES BUT MUCH HIGHER. THINGS TRANSITION TO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES LATE THIS AFTN INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SPOTS AROUND -40F OR SO BUT EVERYONE KEPT ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ACTUALLY MOST OF THE -40F AND COLDER TEMPS OCCUR IN THE AFTN IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING PERIOD IN NE ND/NW MN. HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS QUICKLY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A COLD NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FARTHER WEST THIS TIME AND THUS -20S A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN CNTRL/ERN ND THAN PREVIOUS COOL DOWNS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP THU NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH IN THE ENDLESS CLIPPER PARADE WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING SOUTH LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY WITH 30-35 IN MUCH OF THE RRV/ERN ND AS IN THE PAST THE WEST WINDS HAVE OVERPERFORMED TEMP WISE. THEN THE ARCTIC SURGE WILL OCCUR AGAIN FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR WINDS TO 30-40 KTS AND LIKELY ANOTHER BLOWING SNOW EVENT. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS POLAR VORTEX SETTLES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE SATURDAY/SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL COUPLE WITH 100+ KT 300 HPA JET. MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. STRONG COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ON SUNDAY USHERING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. AS A RESULT...HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY. MINIMAL WARMING ON TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS STILL TOPPING OUT RIGHT AROUND THE ZERO MARK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 655 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 TAFS ARE PRETTY MUCH A NIGHTMARE AS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON CHANGING VSBY AND SUSPENDED SNOW CAUSING IFR OR MVFR CIGS. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS SKIES CLEAR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049- 052>054. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004- 007-013>015-022-027-029-030-040. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ005- 006-008-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
443 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON THURSDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER AFTERNOON SQUALLS. ADDITIONAL ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW POCKETS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND-CHILLS IN A FEW PLACE ARE STILL IN THE -10F RANGE. CLOUDS ARE RACING EASTWARD WITH A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT. A RACE BETWEEN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND IR ABSORBING CLOUDS. IN WESTERN REGIONS...GUIDANCE IMPLIES SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAP AND 4KM NAM ARE FASTER WITH SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS HAVE THE SNOW LATER AND SOME TOWARD THE AM HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE SREF/GEFS IMPLY CHANCE SNOW IS HIGHER IN THIS PERIOD IN THE WESTERN AREA. LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. THESE DATA ALSO A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR AND AN ARCTIC FRONT IN OHIO THURSDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW AND SHOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT GOOD SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL IN WESTERN AREAS. PREVIOUS: THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER WILL DELIVER WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH...WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS. UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE APPROACHING ADVISORY SNOWFALL THURSDAY STRONG POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIFTED. IN ADDITION...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SQUALLS IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT NOW LOOKS QUITE HIGH...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LIFT AS THE UPPER TROF PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION THU AFTERNOON PRODUCING SNSQ PARAMETER VALUES OF 1 TO 3. 4KM SPC WRF ALSO DEPICTS SOME 30DBZ+ RADAR SIMULATED ECHOES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THU AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN LOCAL WHITEOUTS AS A RESULT...FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX PERSISTING FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE LARGE QUASI STATIONARY LOW ROTATES OVER THE BAY...AND MOVES EVER SLOWLY EASTWARD...ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS THAT ONE CLIPPER WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER SUN NITE/MONDAY. BEHIND EACH CLIPPER...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF FRIGID WX COULD COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WEST COAST RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA. WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AN EVER PRESENT ARCTIC AIR MASS THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A FEW PERIODS OF LOW WIND CHILLS...GENERALLY OVER THE ELEVATED REGIONS...THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED CONDITIONS IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN SOMERSET COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 21Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. MVFR AND LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED ON THU AS THE CLIPPER PASSES. LOCAL SQUALLS AND VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRFIELDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX. SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN. SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR LONG TERM...CERU AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
421 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON THURSDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER AFTERNOON SQUALLS. ADDITIONAL ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW POCKETS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND-CHILLS IN A FEW PLACE ARE STILL IN THE -10F RANGE. CLOUDS ARE RACING EASTWARD WITH A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT. A RACE BETWEEN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND IR ABSORBING CLOUDS. IN WESTERN REGIONS...GUIDANCE IMPLIES SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAP AND 4KM NAM ARE FASTER WITH SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS HAVE THE SNOW LATER AND SOME TOWARD THE AM HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE SREF/GEFS IMPLY CHANCE SNOW IS HIGHER IN THIS PERIOD IN THE WESTERN AREA. LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. THESE DATA ALSO A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR AND AN ARCTIC FRONT IN OHIO THURSDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW AND SHOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT GOOD SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL IN WESTERN AREAS. PREVIOUS: THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER WILL DELIVER WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH...WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS. UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE APPROACHING ADVISORY SNOWFALL THURSDAY STRONG POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIFTED. IN ADDITION...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SQUALLS IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT NOW LOOKS QUITE HIGH...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LIFT AS THE UPPER TROF PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION THU AFTERNOON PRODUCING SNSQ PARAMETER VALUES OF 1 TO 3. 4KM SPC WRF ALSO DEPICTS SOME 30DBZ+ RADAR SIMULATED ECHOES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THU AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN LOCAL WHITEOUTS AS A RESULT...FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX PERSISTING FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE LARGE QUASI STATIONARY LOW ROTATES OVER THE BAY...AND MOVES EVER SLOWLY EASTWARD...ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS THAT ONE CLIPPER WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER SUN NITE/MONDAY. BEHIND EACH CLIPPER...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF FRIGID WX COULD COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WEST COAST RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA. WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AN EVER PRESENT ARCTIC AIR MASS THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A FEW PERIODS OF LOW WIND CHILLS...GENERALLY OVER THE ELEVATED REGIONS...THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED CONDITIONS IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN SOMERSET COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. MVFR AND LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED ON THU AS THE CLIPPER PASSES. LOCAL SQUALLS AND VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRFIELDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX. SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN. SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR LONG TERM...CERU AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
951 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014 .DISCUSSION... MID EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTHWEST (AROUND THE CLL AND CALDWELL AREA) TO THE MID 30S IN THE HOUSTON AREA TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT THE COAST. WINDS ARE HOWLING AND GUSTY...GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH WELL INLAND...20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND AT THE BEACHES. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR PRECIP...THERE HAS BEEN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH AN OCCASIONAL SHOW FLURRY REPORTED ON SURFACE OBS AND VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. WHILE RADAR IS TRENDING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE...MODELS INDICATE MORE DEVELOPMENT FROM ROUGHLY I-10 SOUTHWARD AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STAY SAFE! 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/ DISCUSSION... 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... A WINTRY TAF WITH PERIODS OF -RA...TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET- RAIN...WITH A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW FLURRIES FROM GENERALLY THE CITY NORTHWARD. FORECAST HAS MANY INTERIOR HUBS FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ..COASTAL TERMINALS FALLING TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEP ENOUGH SUB-FREEZING LAYER WITHIN THIS OVERRUNNING SITUATION TO ALLOW FOR MID-LAYER LIGHT RAIN TO PARTIALLY FREEZE INTO SLEET ON ITS WAY THROUGH IT. LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET FALLING ONTO COLD SURFACES (I.E., AIRCRAFT HULLS, ELEVATED METALLIC STRUCTURES) MAY FREEZE UPON CONTACT. THIS FROZEN MIXTURE MAY LINGER ON INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRY AIR MOVES IN AND SCOURS OUT THE MID TO LOWER LAYERS. EARLY PERIOD MVFR DECKS FALLING TO IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH QUITE THE ROBUST NORTHEAST WIND IN THE 15-25G35 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. 31 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/ .WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY... DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND EVEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SLOWLY SWING TOWARDS N TX TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING CONROE NORTHWARD MAINLY AROUND 9PM. FREEZING TEMPS THEN WORK NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR HOUSTON ALTHOUGH IT COULD HAPPEN SOONER WITH PRECIP FALLING AND WET BULB THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MODELS CONSISTENTLY KEEPING THIS DRIER AIR OUT OF THE AREA OR SLOWLY MOVING IN MIXING WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT IS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION. AS JET DYNAMICS SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE AREA...NAM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. GFS NOT AS MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SOLID 0.1 TO 0.25 OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRI. NAM ALSO HAS QUITE A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS IN SEVERAL LAYERS MAINLY 850MB-700MB PEAKING AROUND 06Z THROUGH 12Z. THE MAIN ISSUE BEFORE WAS WOULD THERE BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP AND WHETHER DRY SUB FREEZING LAYER WOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING GROUND. THAT HAS CHANGED AND AS A RESULT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE MET ACROSS THE AREA. LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER 18Z FRI SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM STILL HOLDS ONTO PRECIP LONGER ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. PRECIPITATION TYPE...THINK AREAS NORTH OF CONROE WILL START WITH RAIN TRANSITION TO MIX SLEET/FZRA UNTIL 06Z FRI. MAY THEN SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS. POSSIBLE TO HAVE A BAND OF 1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM CALDWELL/COLLEGE STATION ACROSS HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. ICE ACCUMULATION MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE A MESS OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE...BASICALLY CONROE SOUTH THOUGH HOUSTON TO THE COAST EXPECT RAIN GOING TO FZRA/SLEET APPROACHING MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AT SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BUT SUPPOSE A FLAKE OR TWO COULD MIX IN WITH SLEET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM NOSE AROUND 850-800MB IN SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT SLEET AND DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF SUB-FREEZING LAYER...FREEZING RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. POSSIBLE TO GET FREEZING RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS GALVESTON BY 12Z FRI WHICH COULD CAUSE FURTHER TRAVEL ISSUES. ACCUMULATIONS...OVERALL EXPECT HALF INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN AREAS AS OUTLINED ABOVE. GIVE MESO MODEL OUTPUT FROM TX TECH WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS...EVEN 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERAL 0.05 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG I-10 AND US59 AND BACK TOWARDS HOUSTON. LOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BUT STILL A RISK MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEEKEND DOES LOOK TO BE WARMER AFTER FRIDGID FRIDAY. NEXT FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL PUT MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED OUT WITH FRONT. 39 MARINE... WENT AHEAD WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OUR MARINE AREAS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AND NO CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT CONFIGURATIONS WILL BE COMING WITH THIS NEXT PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO DE- CREASE BY TOMORROW/FRI AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE TX AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUN OVERNIGHT/VERY EARLY MON. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 26 36 29 60 41 / 70 30 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 28 35 30 60 41 / 80 50 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 30 37 36 56 48 / 70 60 20 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS... COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS... HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER... WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS... JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014 .DISCUSSION... 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... A WINTRY TAF WITH PERIODS OF -RA...TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET- RAIN...WITH A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW FLURRIES FROM GENERALLY THE CITY NORTHWARD. FORECAST HAS MANY INTERIOR HUBS FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ...COASTAL TERMINALS FALLING TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEP ENOUGH SUB-FREEZING LAYER WITHIN THIS OVERRUNNING SITUATION TO ALLOW FOR MID-LAYER LIGHT RAIN TO PARTIALLY FREEZE INTO SLEET ON ITS WAY THROUGH IT. LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET FALLING ONTO COLD SURFACES (I.E., AIRCRAFT HULLS, ELEVATED METALLIC STRUCTURES) MAY FREEZE UPON CONTACT. THIS FROZEN MIXTURE MAY LINGER ON INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRY AIR MOVES IN AND SCOURS OUT THE MID TO LOWER LAYERS. EARLY PERIOD MVFR DECKS FALLING TO IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH QUITE THE ROBUST NORTHEAST WIND IN THE 15-25G35 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/ ..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY... DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND EVEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SLOWLY SWING TOWARDS N TX TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING CONROE NORTHWARD MAINLY AROUND 9PM. FREEZING TEMPS THEN WORK NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR HOUSTON ALTHOUGH IT COULD HAPPEN SOONER WITH PRECIP FALLING AND WET BULB THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MODELS CONSISTENTLY KEEPING THIS DRIER AIR OUT OF THE AREA OR SLOWLY MOVING IN MIXING WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT IS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION. AS JET DYNAMICS SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE AREA...NAM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. GFS NOT AS MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SOLID 0.1 TO 0.25 OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRI. NAM ALSO HAS QUITE A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS IN SEVERAL LAYERS MAINLY 850MB-700MB PEAKING AROUND 06Z THROUGH 12Z. THE MAIN ISSUE BEFORE WAS WOULD THERE BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP AND WHETHER DRY SUB FREEZING LAYER WOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING GROUND. THAT HAS CHANGED AND AS A RESULT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE MET ACROSS THE AREA. LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER 18Z FRI SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM STILL HOLDS ONTO PRECIP LONGER ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. PRECIPITATION TYPE...THINK AREAS NORTH OF CONROE WILL START WITH RAIN TRANSITION TO MIX SLEET/FZRA UNTIL 06Z FRI. MAY THEN SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS. POSSIBLE TO HAVE A BAND OF 1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM CALDWELL/COLLEGE STATION ACROSS HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. ICE ACCUMULATION MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE A MESS OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE...BASICALLY CONROE SOUTH THOUGH HOUSTON TO THE COAST EXPECT RAIN GOING TO FZRA/SLEET APPROACHING MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AT SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BUT SUPPOSE A FLAKE OR TWO COULD MIX IN WITH SLEET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM NOSE AROUND 850-800MB IN SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT SLEET AND DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF SUB-FREEZING LAYER...FREEZING RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. POSSIBLE TO GET FREEZING RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS GALVESTON BY 12Z FRI WHICH COULD CAUSE FURTHER TRAVEL ISSUES. ACCUMULATIONS...OVERALL EXPECT HALF INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN AREAS AS OUTLINED ABOVE. GIVE MESO MODEL OUTPUT FROM TX TECH WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS...EVEN 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERAL 0.05 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG I-10 AND US59 AND BACK TOWARDS HOUSTON. LOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BUT STILL A RISK MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEEKEND DOES LOOK TO BE WARMER AFTER FRIDGID FRIDAY. NEXT FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL PUT MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED OUT WITH FRONT. 39 AVIATION... ALREADY SEEING SNOW IN CLL OBS THIS AFTN. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING PCPN TYPES/TIMES WITH AMENDMENTS THUS FAR. END TIMES FOR THE WINTRY MIX MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED PAST THE 15Z CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS FOR TO- MORROW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NRN SITES (CLL/UTS/CXO). 41 MARINE... WENT AHEAD WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OUR MARINE AREAS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AND NO CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT CONFIGURATIONS WILL BE COMING WITH THIS NEXT PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO DE- CREASE BY TOMORROW/FRI AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE TX AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUN OVERNIGHT/VERY EARLY MON. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 26 36 29 60 41 / 70 30 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 28 35 30 60 41 / 80 50 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 30 37 36 56 48 / 70 60 20 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON... TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS... JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...WHARTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...31
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 808 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE SNOW THAT IS ENTERING THE AREA AND WITH HOW MUCH WILL FALL. STARTING TO HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO SEE AS MUCH AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY...THE FIRST WAVE IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. VISIBILITIES ARE ONLY AROUND 4SM RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. THAT WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FIRST BAND. THE SECOND WAVE IS THE MORE POTENT WAVE AND WILL COME THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT WHAT IS COMING OUR WAY...MANY OF THE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA ARE IN THE 2SM RANGE AND IS ONLY OVER A NARROW SWATH. THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE NOT BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE REFLECTIVITY TRENDS BUT AT LEAST MIRROR WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. WHILE THE LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS DECENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT...WOULD REALLY PREFER TO SEE A TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TO GET INTO THE HEAVIER SNOWS. WHILE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE...QPF STILL LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT AROUND 0.05". AT THIS POINT...THINKING THAT 3" LOOKS LIKE A HIGH MARK TO HIT FROM THIS SNOW WITH 2" OR LESS LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING AIM ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH SLIDING THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. GOOD QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. THERMODYNAMICS ARE ALSO GOOD...WITH 925-700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K SFCS LEADING THE CHARGE - MAXED IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. SATURATION ISN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT DEEP ENOUGH PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. MOST FAVORABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WITH THIS AMPLE FORCING AND SUFFICIENT SATURATION...THE AREA CAN EXPECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AS FOR HOW MUCH...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS VIA THE NAM AND GFS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONE GROWTH REGION FROM THE SFC TO NEARLY 8 KFT FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK LIFT DURING THIS TIME. BIG...FLUFFY FLAKES ARE LIKELY...AND RAPID ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY THOUGH...AND QPF IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THIS WILL HOLD DOWN THE AMOUNTS. SNOW RATIOS OF 20/30 TO 1 STILL LOOK GOOD...RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 INCHES TOTALS. WINDS ARE GOING TO PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IOWA...AND AREA RIDGE-TOPS. NOT SURE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SO COVER THESE IMPACTS...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SWEEPS IN WITH THE TROUGH AND PASSING SFC COLD FRONT WED MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS FROM THE MORNING READINGS. CLOUDS COULD LINGER FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EAST FOR A BETTER PART OF THE WED NIGHT...INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT LOWS SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT FROM THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COUPLE THIS WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 25 TO 35 BELOW OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH THU MORNING. ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED - OR PERHAPS WINTER WEATHER ADV IF BLOWING SNOW IS AN ISSUE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 GOOD CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS - GFS/ECMWF/GEM - WITH DROPPING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION. BOTH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...AND COULD SEE TWO SEPARATE BANDS SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SATURATION ISN/T THAT GREAT...AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...WHICH WILL KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN. HARD TO QUANTIFY AT THIS TIME...BUT LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR LESS AT THIS MOMENT. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES FOR FRIDAY...AND HIGHS COULD VENTURE BACK TO THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE RETURN WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THE STRONGER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. 850 MB TEMPS WOULD DROP TO -24 C ON SAT VIA THE GFS. HIGHS ON SAT COULD OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY/FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. MIGHT AS WELL JUMP ON THE WAVE TRAIN...AS YOUR TICKET HAS ALREADY BEEN PUNCHED. WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD SLIP ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN. TIMING AND POSITIONING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/IF IT WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WHEREVER IT TRACKS...SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RESULT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY MVFR WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE WHILE CEILINGS RANGE FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR. THE MAIN BAND OF IFR IS NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT LSE HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING IFR THAN RST DOES...THOUGH IT COULD GO EAST OF THE SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 30KTS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW AT RST...THOUGH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH THE BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBACH SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
358 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 Today: Primary focus will be on strong wind potential and critical fire danger (see FIRE WEATHER section below). For the umpteenth time this month, yet another strong mid level gyre will drop south from central Canada, replacing the arctic air with increasingly mild conditions. Surface pressures which started out at around 1044mb at 00Z, will crash to near 1014mb by 00Z this evening. Aches and pains alert! Incredible 30mb/24-hour pressure falls, coupled with 50-60 knot 925mb flow, will once again set the stage for very windy conditions across the region. As has been the case with the last several wind events, strong vertical mixing and downward momentum transfer will contribute to very strong gusts that will be well above what is "typically" expected for forecast sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph. Other than scattered mid cloud, ample sunshine should help realize nearly maximum gust potential, with the RAP and HRRR both suggesting widespread gusts exceeding 40 knots from late morning through mid afternoon, as the pressure wave pushes southeast. Have collaborated a wind advisory which will run from 10AM through 2PM across far NW MO/NE KS, and through 6PM across most of west central/central/northeast MO into far eastern Kansas. Despite the southwest winds, warm advection will lag quite a bit, with most of the diurnal temperature boost coming in the 11AM-3PM time frame. As a result, another very cold start expected this morning with wind chills in the -5 to -10F range as the kids head to the bus stop. Tonight-Saturday: Deep mixing will keep temperatures relatively mild tonight with lows running some 20 degrees warmer than this morning. A few flurries to a light dusting of snow could glance the far NE counties, but the bulk of any very minor accumulations should once again fall well east of the region as the strongest mid level ascent shifts into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Weak cyclonic flow and cloud cover beneath and intense upper jet will lend to a challenging temperature forecast Saturday. High temperatures will range some 15-20 degrees from the upper 20s near Kirksville to the mid 40s across west central MO, and the gradient magnitude varies considerably among the 00Z models. Sunday-Sunday Night: Low level temps will steadily warm Saturday night and early Sunday ahead of the next arctic blast. 925mb temps could reach +10C, suggesting that temperatures will likely reach the low-mid 50s across all but far nrn MO before frontal passage late in the afternoon. Definitely the mildest day in the coming week. In a reversal of fortune so to speak, surface pressures will increase 30mb from 12Z Sunday to 12Z Monday, coincident with a strong arctic blast trailing yet another Canadian Clipper. Temperatures will plummet some 45 to 50 degrees from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning, and I would not be surprised to see wind gusts again in the 30-40 mph range Sunday evening. (Need to do some research as I cannot ever recall this magnitude of wind in January across Missouri). Monday-Thursday: See no change in the overall upper flow pattern to round out the end of the month. Above average confidence in little to no measurable precipitation, and above average confidence in much below normal temperatures Monday/Tuesday, then trending back toward normal Wednesday/Thursday ahead of the next closed low in the sequence dropping south through the Canadian Prairies. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected along and south of a St. Joseph to Carrollton to Moberly line from late morning through mid afternoon. Early morning observations show a very dry boundary layer in place with dewpoints in the single digits below zero. Very little moderate of this airmass is expected as temperatures steadily warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, yielding relative humidity values between 18 and 25%. The very dry airmass and 10-hour fuel stick moistures of 7-8% will contribute to a very volatile setup as southwest winds increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Given the potential for rapid grassland fire spread, a red flag warning remains in effect from 10AM thru 8PM for the aforementioned areas. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1111 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014 VFR conditions are expected through the entire forecast. The biggest concern will be from very strong and gusty south/southwesterly winds. Winds will increase around sunrise as the surface high pressure slides to the south and east and the pressure gradient really strengthens across the area. As deeper mixing develops later in the morning and this afternoon winds will become quite strong and gusty. Have increased winds into the 25kt sustained 35kt gust range. Winds potentially could be stronger if the pressure gradient and deepest mixing occur together. But for now this looks to occur south and east of the terminals. A secondary concern is for LLWS late tonight through a few hours after sunrise, before deeper mixing develops. Winds aloft will be very strong, possibly around 50 kts. This will occur prior to the surface pressure gradient strengthening. As a result have added LLWS to the forecast. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105. WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105. WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ025-102. MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ020>022-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ008-017-021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ001>007-011>016-020. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bookbinder AVIATION...CDB FIRE WEATHER...Bookbinder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 The large Arctic high will continue to sink southward away from the region today while the next frontal system begins driving southward into the northern Plains. In between the surface pressure gradient will tighten up as will the height field, resulting in rather strong winds through the lower trop. The combination of this along with mixing will produce strong and gusty southwest winds. Both MOS values and wind gusts from the HRRR and RAP suggest winds will meet advisory criteria across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with wind gusts of 40 kts possible. This regime is also favorable for a good warm-up even with the very cold start, and have highs above the MOS guidance. Glass .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 A nw flow shortwave and attendant ULJ will dig into the area tonight sending another cold front through the region. As has been the case recently, strong and gusty northwest winds will accompany the front. Large scale ascent associated with the shortwave appears sufficient to produce an area of light snow across northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Currently it looks like the St. Louis region will be on the western fringe of the snow field. I have bumped up pops in the high chance to likely category within the aforementioned zone, and anticipate amounts from a dusting to less than an inch. We remain in cyclonic flow and northwest winds on Saturday with temperatures expected to remain below average. The temperature see-saw then continues on Sunday as the weak high pressure ridge departs quickly on Saturday night and we are well into low-level warm advection just after midnight. Strong warm advection on Sunday and gusty southwest-west winds once again suggest a good warm-up with highs getting well above normal. Enjoy the "warmth" because it is all downhill after Sunday. The next formidable Arctic front/blast comes roaring into the region on Sunday night and the airmass with this front is the coldest since the early January Arctic outbreak. A large full latitude longwave trof will continue to dominate central and eastern NOAM through the middle of next week keeping very cold conditions locked in across the region. The models are finally showing signs this blocky cold pattern breaking down and by early February suggest a negative phase of the PNA pattern will become established. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2014 VFR fcst with sfc ridge settling south into TX tonight. Main story will be the gusty SSW winds on Friday. Winds are in the process of going sthrly tonight. All model guidance indicates 40 to 60 kts of wind just a couple thousand feet off the ground. Some of this is fcst to mix to the sfc. The pressure gradient also increases significantly tomorrow. This means sustained wind near 20 kts with gusts 30 to 35kts. This could lead to crosswind concerns on certain runway configurations. Removed the mention of LLWS except at KCPS and KSUS. Think that the threat remains marginal as the winds aloft arrive just before mixing begins. I think there may still be a brief window of a couple hrs as mixing is delayed due to the location of the arpts in river valleys. Otherwise...expect an increase in mid/high level cloudiness and continued gusty winds. Specifics for KSTL: VFR fcst with the main concern gusty SSW winds. This will likley become a crosswind concern later Friday morning and continuing thru the rest of the day. Winds eventually will become NW by Saturday morning. I removed the mention of LLWS as the window of opportunity looks too narrow on the order of a couple hrs. The stronger winds aloft arrive just before mixing begins. 2% && .FIRE WEATHER: Issued at 215 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2014 After coordinating with surrounding offices, as well as USFS and MO Dept of Conservation, will be issuing a Red Flag Warning for parts of central and east central Missouri, as well as much of southeast Missouri, for late Friday morning into Friday evening. Setup looks favorable for a strong warmup while surface ridge to our south blocks any significant moisture return. Red Flag criteria should easily be met...10hr fuel moisture values below 8% (criteria less than 9%), sustained SW winds at least 20 mph (criteria greater than 15 mph) with higher gusts, and latest temp/dewpoint forecasts suggests afternoon RH values below 20% roughly along and south of a COU- Ste. Genevieve line (criteria less than 25%). Truett && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO- Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
224 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 .DISCUSSION... WILL LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 12Z. SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS FARTHER SOUTH OF TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS DIVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AROUND 850 MBARS ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH WINDS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TURN WESTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA. LATEST RUC SOUNDING SHOWING VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. I/R SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS FIBRATUS SCOOTING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH 160 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPING AM EXPECTING TEMPS TONIGHT TO ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS PRESENTS KNOWN HERE IN THE MID STATE AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CONTINUING EAST OF INTERSTATE 24 SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A HALF INCH ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND SATURDAY MORNING. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ITS NOT AS COLD BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AS PREVIOUS CLIPPERS. SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AROUND 50 MANY AREAS WITH MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE PLATEAU. A STRONGER CLIPPER COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE WORK WEEK LOOKS COLD AND SOMEWHAT A REPEAT OF WHAT WE JUST HAD. LOOKING FARTHER OUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET BECOMES DOMINATE. THIS BEGINS TO SHOW UP ON THE EURO BY THE 31ST OF JANUARY AND CONTINUES PAST GROUNDHOG DAY. LETS HOPE ITS A CLOUDY DAY WHEN HE EMERGES FROM HIS BURROW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 26 22 42 22 / 0 20 10 05 CLARKSVILLE 26 23 38 20 / 0 30 10 05 CROSSVILLE 23 20 34 19 / 0 10 30 05 COLUMBIA 27 22 42 22 / 0 10 10 05 LAWRENCEBURG 29 23 43 23 / 0 05 10 05 WAVERLY 26 23 40 21 / 0 20 10 05 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011- 032>034-065-066-078>080. && $$ BOYD 01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 .DISCUSSION... SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS LOOK LIKELY FROM MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLDSPRING. QUITE A LULL IN PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO THE REGION AND RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES WILL START TO FREEZE. TXDOT IS REPORTING ICE ON MANY ROADS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND THIS APPEARS TO BE BACKED UP BY RADAR WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY NOT MEET WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA BUT DON`T SEE THE SENSE IN SWITCHING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. WILL RE-EVALUATE AT 12Z ONCE THE MORNING SOUNDINGS COME IN...BUT FEEL THE WSW COULD BE DROPPED BY 15Z. DON`T BE SURPRISED IF AN UPDATED FORECAST IS ISSUED BETWEEN 6-7 AM. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING FROM THE TOP SO SNOW NORTH OF HOUSTON WILL LOSE THEIR ICE CRYSTALS AND PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO ICE PELLETS OR FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...06Z SOUNDING LAUNCHED AT THE UNIV OF HOUSTON SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 900-700 MB AND A SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM 900 MB TO NEAR 1000 MB. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE WILL AFFECT HOUSTON METRO AREAS FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE ENDING. THE STRONG RRQ WHICH HAS ENHANCED LIFT IS PULLING AWAY AND OMEGA WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING SO FEEL MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS CLOUDY ALL DAY SO DON`T EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL RELAX LATER TODAY. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST THRU 15Z BUT THE TREND IS FOR WINDS TO RELAX THIS MORNING. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SAT/SUN AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S TUES/WED MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE DRY WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHILE THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 37 29 59 40 67 / 40 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 36 31 59 42 67 / 70 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 37 37 55 48 64 / 70 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS... COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS... HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER... WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON... MATAGORDA. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FORT BEND...HARRIS...WHARTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014 .DISCUSSION... 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS LATEST PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING THIS WINTRY MIX TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. AS THE EARLY PRE-DAWN COLUMN COOLS FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING (FROM LIGHT PRECIPITATION) AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WILL TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MANY OF THE INTERIOR TERMINALS. THERE IS A DECENT POSSIBILITY THAT THE (NEAR) COASTAL HUBS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL. HIGH REZ MODELING DEPICTS A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FILL IN OF -PLSN OR -SN FROM AROUND 09Z THROUGH 13-15Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WINTER PRECIPITATION AND AMPED NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH LATE MORNING. CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT VRB WINDS BY EARLY EVENING. THUS...THE NEXT 8 HOURS WILL BE THE WORST OF IT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/ DISCUSSION... MID EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTHWEST (AROUND THE CLL AND CALDWELL AREA) TO THE MID 30S IN THE HOUSTON AREA TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT THE COAST. WINDS ARE HOWLING AND GUSTY...GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH WELL INLAND...20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND AT THE BEACHES. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR PRECIP...THERE HAS BEEN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH AN OCCASIONAL SHOW FLURRY REPORTED ON SURFACE OBS AND VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. WHILE RADAR IS TRENDING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE...MODELS INDICATE MORE DEVELOPMENT FROM ROUGHLY I-10 SOUTHWARD AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STAY SAFE! 42 && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/ DISCUSSION... 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... A WINTRY TAF WITH PERIODS OF -RA...TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET- RAIN...WITH A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW FLURRIES FROM GENERALLY THE CITY NORTHWARD. FORECAST HAS MANY INTERIOR HUBS FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT .COASTAL TERMINALS FALLING TO FREEZING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEP ENOUGH SUB-FREEZING LAYER WITHIN THIS OVERRUNNING SITUATION TO ALLOW FOR MID-LAYER LIGHT RAIN TO PARTIALLY FREEZE INTO SLEET ON ITS WAY THROUGH IT. LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET FALLING ONTO COLD SURFACES (I.E., AIRCRAFT HULLS, ELEVATED METALLIC STRUCTURES) MAY FREEZE UPON CONTACT. THIS FROZEN MIXTURE MAY LINGER ON INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRY AIR MOVES IN AND SCOURS OUT THE MID TO LOWER LAYERS. EARLY PERIOD MVFR DECKS FALLING TO IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH QUITE THE ROBUST NORTHEAST WIND IN THE 15-25G35 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. 31 && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014/ WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY... DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND EVEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SLOWLY SWING TOWARDS N TX TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING CONROE NORTHWARD MAINLY AROUND 9PM. FREEZING TEMPS THEN WORK NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR HOUSTON ALTHOUGH IT COULD HAPPEN SOONER WITH PRECIP FALLING AND WET BULB THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MODELS CONSISTENTLY KEEPING THIS DRIER AIR OUT OF THE AREA OR SLOWLY MOVING IN MIXING WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT IS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION. AS JET DYNAMICS SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE AREA...NAM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. GFS NOT AS MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SOLID 0.1 TO 0.25 OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRI. NAM ALSO HAS QUITE A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS IN SEVERAL LAYERS MAINLY 850MB-700MB PEAKING AROUND 06Z THROUGH 12Z. THE MAIN ISSUE BEFORE WAS WOULD THERE BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP AND WHETHER DRY SUB FREEZING LAYER WOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING GROUND. THAT HAS CHANGED AND AS A RESULT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE MET ACROSS THE AREA. LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER 18Z FRI SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM STILL HOLDS ONTO PRECIP LONGER ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. PRECIPITATION TYPE...THINK AREAS NORTH OF CONROE WILL START WITH RAIN TRANSITION TO MIX SLEET/FZRA UNTIL 06Z FRI. MAY THEN SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS. POSSIBLE TO HAVE A BAND OF 1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM CALDWELL/COLLEGE STATION ACROSS HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. ICE ACCUMULATION MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE A MESS OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE...BASICALLY CONROE SOUTH THOUGH HOUSTON TO THE COAST EXPECT RAIN GOING TO FZRA/SLEET APPROACHING MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AT SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BUT SUPPOSE A FLAKE OR TWO COULD MIX IN WITH SLEET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM NOSE AROUND 850-800MB IN SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT SLEET AND DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF SUB-FREEZING LAYER...FREEZING RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. POSSIBLE TO GET FREEZING RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS GALVESTON BY 12Z FRI WHICH COULD CAUSE FURTHER TRAVEL ISSUES. ACCUMULATIONS...OVERALL EXPECT HALF INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN AREAS AS OUTLINED ABOVE. GIVE MESO MODEL OUTPUT FROM TX TECH WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS...EVEN 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERAL 0.05 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG I-10 AND US59 AND BACK TOWARDS HOUSTON. LOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BUT STILL A RISK MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEEKEND DOES LOOK TO BE WARMER AFTER FRIDGID FRIDAY. NEXT FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL PUT MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED OUT WITH FRONT. 39 && .MARINE... WENT AHEAD WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OUR MARINE AREAS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AND NO CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT CONFIGURATIONS WILL BE COMING WITH THIS NEXT PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO DE- CREASE BY TOMORROW/FRI AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE TX AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUN OVERNIGHT/VERY EARLY MON. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 26 36 29 60 41 / 70 30 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 28 35 30 60 41 / 80 50 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 30 37 36 56 48 / 70 60 20 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS... COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS... HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER... WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS... JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
543 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 STRONG WAA LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HELPING TO PUSH MAX TEMPS ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS. THE LATEST ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST WITH TODAYS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE LATELY WITH THESE QUICK ONE DAY WARM-UPS. IF MIXED TO JUST 900MB...TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY WHICH RESULTED IN WARMING TEMPS UP 5 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO MIX SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH BETTER SUNSHINE...SO WIND GUSTS MAY TEETER ON ADVISORY LEVEL FOR A SHORT TIME FRAME LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A QUICK SHOT OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN TIERS OF FORECAST THRU 18Z. HIRES ARW/NMM WRF MODELS BARELY HAVE ANY PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THE LATEST HOPWRF (24.06Z) AND HRRR (24.06Z) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEM. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING FROM 13-17Z AND KEPT MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE HIRES ARW/NMM WRF MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY 22Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. SO WENT DRY 18Z TO 21Z AND CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF IOWA COUNTIES. MCW SOUNDING QUICKLY BECOMES DEEPLY SATURATED BY AROUND 00Z AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SNOW/RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST...AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW MELT PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 WEATHER WILL BE VERY ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT HEADLINE EVENTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...INCLUDING WHAT MAY BE A BLIZZARD LATE SUNDAY. INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...WHICH WILL NOT BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...SHOULD BE ENTERING NRN IA AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS HUDSON BAY LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DEEP BUT SOMEWHAT PATCHY WITH NAM LIFT MORE BULLISH THAN GFS OR ECMWF. WITH FAST MOVEMENT AND FOLLOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...ANY UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FLEETING. AFOREMENTIONED WARMER SOLUTIONS BRING MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE OR AT LEAST NEAR THE FREEZING MARK MAKING THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE RAIN SW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER NORTHEAST. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL ALSO RAISE LOWEST 1KM TEMPS HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW RATIOS SO ONLY EXPECT ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS FAR NORTHEAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN FOLLOW SAT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN LITTLE DIURNAL REBOUND. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAKE HIGHS AND LOWS PROBLEMATIC WITH LOWER/RISING TEMPS AT TIMES CENTERED AROUND DAYS/NIGHTS RESPECTIVELY. ATTENTION WILL THEN QUICKLY TURN UPSTREAM WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP NW-SE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE DEEP...AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DECENT KINEMATIC LIFT...IT SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY STRONG AND IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING /THETA-E ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS/. THIS DEEP LIFT AND COOLER COLUMN TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN TONIGHT...WELL INTO THE TEENS. RATIOS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...OVER 20...BUT THE MAX LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE 1-2KM AND MAINLY BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED RATIOS AND FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT...LIKELY SNOWING LESS THAN SIX HOURS AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION...SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN THE FAR NE CORNERS AS WELL /MASON CITY/WATERLOO NORTH/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT THE GREATEST ON AMOUNTS HOWEVER AS ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED THEIR SNOW AXIS EMPHASIS. ECMWF NOW EMPHASIZES MORE NELY TRACK. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE BIG IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS NOT SEEN UNTIL SUN AND SUN EVENING. MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS...BUT LARGER PROBLEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND A BIG CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS OFTEN 40-55KTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH. NO HEADLINES AS OF YET IN THIS PERIOD...BUT OPTIONS MAY ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM WIND ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS TO FULL FLEDGED BLIZZARD WARNINGS IF FORECASTED SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOMEWHAT OF A WORSE CASE SCENARIO WITH A MYRIAD OF HAZARDS INTO MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS NE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH...READINGS MAY SURGE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK NW-SE ALONG THE SWRN FRINGE OF SNOW ACCUMS WITH SOME MINOR MELTING FOLLOWED BY A FLASH FREEZE WITH SHARP TEMP DROP LATER IN THE EVENING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER ARCTIC COLD WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ISSUES AND CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW NE HALF. SERIOUS...LIFE THREATENING TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NE HALF MON MORNING. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TO MAKE ANY HEADWAY...ASSUMING FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS OF COURSE. THIS WOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 45 BELOW. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN INTO TUE...AND PERSISTENT NWLY WINDS...TEMPS AT MASON CITY FOR INSTANCE MAY NOT TOP ZERO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A 30 HOUR PERIOD WITH AT LEAST MINOR BLOWING SNOW AND WARNING CRITERIA WIND CHILLS /-30F/. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL NEED CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS SOMEWHAT MORE INACTIVE THANKFULLY WITH ONLY PRECIP WINDOW AROUND WED NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS A LOBE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO END THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...24/12Z ISSUED AT 543 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND HAVE GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING. NEXT ISSUE IS WITH QUICK SHORTWAVE TONIGHT TO BRING MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY VIS FOR LIGHT SNOW/RAIN. SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS THIS EVENING...BUT STRATUS LOOKS TO STICK AROUND WITH THE STRONG CAA DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK LONG TERM...SMALL AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 STRONG WAA LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HELPING TO PUSH MAX TEMPS ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS. THE LATEST ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST WITH TODAYS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE LATELY WITH THESE QUICK ONE DAY WARM-UPS. IF MIXED TO JUST 900MB...TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY WHICH RESULTED IN WARMING TEMPS UP 5 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO MIX SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH BETTER SUNSHINE...SO WIND GUSTS MAY TEETER ON ADVISORY LEVEL FOR A SHORT TIME FRAME LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A QUICK SHOT OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN TIERS OF FORECAST THRU 18Z. HIRES ARW/NMM WRF MODELS BARELY HAVE ANY PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THE LATEST HOPWRF (24.06Z) AND HRRR (24.06Z) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEM. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING FROM 13-17Z AND KEPT MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE HIRES ARW/NMM WRF MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY 22Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. SO WENT DRY 18Z TO 21Z AND CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF IOWA COUNTIES. MCW SOUNDING QUICKLY BECOMES DEEPLY SATURATED BY AROUND 00Z AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SNOW/RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST...AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW MELT PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 WEATHER WILL BE VERY ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT HEADLINE EVENTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...INCLUDING WHAT MAY BE A BLIZZARD LATE SUNDAY. INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...WHICH WILL NOT BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...SHOULD BE ENTERING NRN IA AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS HUDSON BAY LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DEEP BUT SOMEWHAT PATCHY WITH NAM LIFT MORE BULLISH THAN GFS OR ECMWF. WITH FAST MOVEMENT AND FOLLOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...ANY UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FLEETING. AFOREMENTIONED WARMER SOLUTIONS BRING MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE OR AT LEAST NEAR THE FREEZING MARK MAKING THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE RAIN SW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER NORTHEAST. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL ALSO RAISE LOWEST 1KM TEMPS HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW RATIOS SO ONLY EXPECT ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS FAR NORTHEAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN FOLLOW SAT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN LITTLE DIURNAL REBOUND. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAKE HIGHS AND LOWS PROBLEMATIC WITH LOWER/RISING TEMPS AT TIMES CENTERED AROUND DAYS/NIGHTS RESPECTIVELY. ATTENTION WILL THEN QUICKLY TURN UPSTREAM WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP NW-SE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE DEEP...AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DECENT KINEMATIC LIFT...IT SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY STRONG AND IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING /THETA-E ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS/. THIS DEEP LIFT AND COOLER COLUMN TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN TONIGHT...WELL INTO THE TEENS. RATIOS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...OVER 20...BUT THE MAX LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE 1-2KM AND MAINLY BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED RATIOS AND FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT...LIKELY SNOWING LESS THAN SIX HOURS AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION...SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN THE FAR NE CORNERS AS WELL /MASON CITY/WATERLOO NORTH/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT THE GREATEST ON AMOUNTS HOWEVER AS ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED THEIR SNOW AXIS EMPHASIS. ECMWF NOW EMPHASIZES MORE NELY TRACK. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE BIG IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS NOT SEEN UNTIL SUN AND SUN EVENING. MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS...BUT LARGER PROBLEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND A BIG CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS OFTEN 40-55KTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH. NO HEADLINES AS OF YET IN THIS PERIOD...BUT OPTIONS MAY ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM WIND ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS TO FULL FLEDGED BLIZZARD WARNINGS IF FORECASTED SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOMEWHAT OF A WORSE CASE SCENARIO WITH A MYRIAD OF HAZARDS INTO MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS NE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH...READINGS MAY SURGE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK NW-SE ALONG THE SWRN FRINGE OF SNOW ACCUMS WITH SOME MINOR MELTING FOLLOWED BY A FLASH FREEZE WITH SHARP TEMP DROP LATER IN THE EVENING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER ARCTIC COLD WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ISSUES AND CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW NE HALF. SERIOUS...LIFE THREATENING TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NE HALF MON MORNING. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TO MAKE ANY HEADWAY...ASSUMING FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS OF COURSE. THIS WOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 45 BELOW. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN INTO TUE...AND PERSISTENT NWLY WINDS...TEMPS AT MASON CITY FOR INSTANCE MAY NOT TOP ZERO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A 30 HOUR PERIOD WITH AT LEAST MINOR BLOWING SNOW AND WARNING CRITERIA WIND CHILLS /-30F/. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL NEED CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS SOMEWHAT MORE INACTIVE THANKFULLY WITH ONLY PRECIP WINDOW AROUND WED NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS A LOBE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO END THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...24/06Z ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FRIDAY AND TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER. PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH CIGS LOWERING AND MVFR VSBYS. MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KDSM AND OTM. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK LONG TERM...SMALL AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1010 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR MORE WILL BECOME LIKELY. THIS WIND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH RECENT SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BECOME WORSE THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA ALONG WITH MORE WIND AND COLD AIR. THIS COULD PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF IMPACT TO THE AREA WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. MORE COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT WILL RULE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1008 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE LAKE ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT IS STARTING TO INCREASE AND SHOULD BE GOING STRONG BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM. THERE MAY BE A SORT OF LULL FOR A FEW HOURS THEN THE MORE SYNOPTIC PART OF THE STORM KICKS IN AROUND 7 PM AND SHOULD GO TILL AROUND 6 AM. IT DURING THAT TIME MOST OF THE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS OF 10 AM WE HAVE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW OVER MOST OF OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AND BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW NORTH OF THERE. AS THE WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE SO I EXPECT OVERALL THE WIND CHILLS TO WARM SOME...BEING IN THE 0 TO 10 BELOW RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOW THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES WILL HAVE 50 TO 55 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER (3000 FT IN DEPTH) FROM 1 PM TILL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH RANGE MKG...GRR AND BIV HAVE VISIBILITIES UNDER 3 MILES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ONCE THE SNOW RATES INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH WE WILL BE SEEING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF WE NEED TO UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING... HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT STILL SEEMS TO ME WE CAN GO AHEAD WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE. ONE OTHER ISSUE TO ADDRESS LATER IS THE LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THE STORM SATURDAY. I COULD SEE EXPANDED THE WARNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF US-131. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVENT EXPECTED FOR TODAY INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA AS CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS. THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT HAS DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES AS THE UPPER JET IS SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CLOUDS HOLDING IN THUS FAR HAVE KEPT TEMPS AND RESULTING WIND CHILLS IN CHECK. WE DO EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CLEARING FROM THE S WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE SE WITH THE FLOW GOING SW. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP AND DRIVE THE WIND CHILLS DOWN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND REALLY GET CRANKING AROUND MID MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR CENTERED AROUND 18Z +/- A COUPLE OF HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. THESE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WHILE LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS FALLING THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL HAVE THE FRESH SNOW FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. HOW MUCH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SNOW STARTS FALLING IS UNCERTAIN. THIS IS ONE REASON WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP UP NORTH WITH THE BETTER WINDS STILL IN PLACE...SO THE WARNING AREA UP NORTH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED A BIT CLOSER. THE WORST BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL OCCUR WHILE THE WINDS ARE STILL UP THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THE SNOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH. THIS SNOW PORTION OF THE EVENT WILL BE A COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH DELTA T/S EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS C BY THAT TIME. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME FAIRLY ROBUST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA LIKELY DUE TO THE WINDS COMING OFF OF THE LAKE AND DUE TO THE FLOW AND THE CONTOUR OF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS SIMILAR TO THE EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE DGZ IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HELP WITH ACCUMS. THIS PART OF THE EVENT WILL HELP THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA SEE THE HIGHEST ACCUMS DURING THE EVENT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THIS EVENING...AND THE THE CWFA WILL BE PLACED UNDER THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET DIVING IN WHICH WILL HELP ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE WINDS AND GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE CORE OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE SNOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWFA BY 12Z SAT...LEAVING LAKE EFFECT IN ITS WAKE. THE UPPER JET WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...ALLOWING FOR DECENT INVERSION HTS/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ACROSS THE NW AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WITH MEAN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD OVERHEAD. SAT NIGHT COULD BE A COLD NIGHT INLAND WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 MORE HIGH IMPACT/HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW....AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO. SCHOOL/BUSINESS CLOSURES ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WHERE FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL APPEAR LIKELY AGAIN. THE NEXT CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GRTLKS REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND PLACEMENT/COVERAGE OF HIGHEST SYNOPTIC SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH HOWEVER IN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RIVAL THAT OF JANUARY 6-7 WHICH IRONICALLY WAS ALSO A MONDAY/TUESDAY EVENT. FINE SNOWFLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 BUT WILL STILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES AND ICY ROAD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LIFTS OUT... BUT MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY AS CYCLONIC WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. WINDS BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 23 TO 28 KNOTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS LIKELY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL LIKELY TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY JUST THE MKG AND GRR TERMINALS... WHERE AN INCREASE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS AT MKG AND GRR. MEANWHILE SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO OCCASIONAL BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN SNOW EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE TERMINAL TONIGHT... WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT MKG AND GRR. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 327 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 LITTLE QUESTION ON THE GALE WINDS FRIDAY BUT WHAT I THROUGH WE WOULD ALSO NEED WAS A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SO I ADD THAT TO THE HEADLINE MIX IN THE NEAR SHORE PRODUCTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 135 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 RIVERS LEVELS ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. STABLE ICE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER. THE ICE JAM THREAT IS LOW AND THERE IS NO CURRENT INDICATIONS OF ANY ICE JAMS ON THE RIVER NETWORK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043- 044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ039-040- 045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074. LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...MEADE HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
608 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 VERY BUSY SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH STRONG NW WINDS RETURNING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW ISSUES. STRONG WAA IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCE BY TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BE STEADILY RISING 2 TO 4 DEGREES PER HOUR FOR MOST LOCATIONS SINCE MIDNIGHT AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS DROPPING SE FROM NODAK/NW MN. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SEEN WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH AT TIMES IN WRN MN...WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT ANY BLOWABLE SNOW WAS BLOWN OUT OF THE AREA WITH THE BLIZZARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS OCCURRING...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...GOOD CALL BY EARLIER SHIFTS NOT TO GO WITH ANOTHER BLIZZARD WARNING FOR LAST NIGHT. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SRN CANADA HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 30 AND 45 DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THE MPX CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY 2 TO 8 DEGS BELOW ZERO...EVEN A 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE OF 40 DEGREES WOULD NET YOU HIGHS OF 35 TO 40...WHICH IS WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SW OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THESE FORECAST HIGHS MATCH UP WELL WITH WHAT THE GEM AND ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED HIGHS HAVE FOR TODAY...WHICH ARE THE PIECES OF GUIDANCE THAT HAVE SHOWN THE BEST VERIFICATION THIS WINTER WHEN WE HAVE SEEN OUR OCCASIONAL WARM PUFFS OF AIR. THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST. WE HAVE SEEN A VERY NARROW BAND OF SNOW DEVELOP WITH PRETTY HEALTHY SNOWFALL RATES /AS EVIDENCED VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN TO 3/4SM/...BUT SNOW HAS BEEN ONLY LASTING 1 TO 2 HOURS...WITH A QUICK HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW BEING PICKED UP AS THE BAND WORKS THROUGH. THE RAP/HRRR HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THE BAND THIS MORNING...SO USED THOSE MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE THIS NARROW BAND THROUGH THE MPX CWA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE TWIN CITIES...THIS SNOW BAND IS STILL IN STORE TO IMPACT THE METRO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THIS MORNING...SO WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOW MORNING COMMUTE. ROUND TWO OF SNOW TODAY WILL COME ABOUT 8 HOURS AFTER ROUND ONE AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE HEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE MPX AREA BETWEEN 6PM AND MIDNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT PRECIP BLOSSOMING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AROUND 21Z AND DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A REASON I MENTION PRECIP AND NOT SNOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW 925 MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 0Z COMING UP A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MN RIVER AND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE SW CWA EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...IT MEANS P-TYPE IS AT ISSUE. HAVE IT WARM ENOUGH TO GET ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF LAC QUI PARLE AND WRN YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES...WITH A RA/SN MIX OUT TO THE MN RIVER. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SNOW EVERYWHERE ELSE...BUT QPF AMOUNTS AGAIN LOOK LIGHT...WITH ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY AGAIN FOR THE TWIN CITIES...THIS LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO START JUST IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE...THOUGH HOPEFULLY TEMPERATURE UP CLOSE TO FREEZING WILL KEEP THINGS FLOWING A LITTLE FASTER. TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDING SHOWING TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIXING AGAIN GOING OVER 40 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE MN CWA AS CAA CREATES DEEP AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CERTAINLY WINDS LIKE THIS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...BUT DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANY HEADLINES FOR 3 REASONS. 1...AS WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE THIS WINTER...THESE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MOISTEN UP THE SNOWPACK...MAKING IT CONSIDERABLY LESS BLOWABLE. 2...AS WE SAW OVERNIGHT...THE BLIZZARD WEDNESDAY BLEW CLEAR MOST OF THE SNOW THAT COULD BE BLOWN AROUND AND WHAT WE ARE GETTING TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL NOT BE THE 25+:1 TYPE STUFF. 3...WITH A POTENTIALLY MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SITUATION SETTING UP ON SUNDAY...DID NOT WANT TONIGHT TO LIMIT THE FOCUS ON THAT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 407 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH FOR A BLIZZARD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR MN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS HIGH ON A DEEPENING CLIPPER MOVING FROM ND TO SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SNOW IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY CWA WIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONE REAL INTERESTING CHANGE TONIGHT IS THAT THE ECMWF IS NOW GENERATING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A 700 MB LOW MOVING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS...ADDING MORE FUEL TO THE FIRE. POPS WERE RAISED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA ON SUNDAY. THE GRIDS ARE SET FOR A BLIZZARD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH...IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE HIGHEST ON SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 40 MPH STRETCHING FROM MONTEVIDEO TO ALBERT LEA BY SUNDAY EVENING. COLLABORATION WITH OUR WESTERN NEIGHBORS WAS TO HOLD OFF ON SUNDAY AT THIS POINT DUE TO WATCHES BEING ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WEST AND NORTH. NO CHANGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS PARKED OVER THE DAKOTAS. LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL BE FROM 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. FACTOR IN THAT BRISK NORTHWEST WIND AND WIND CHILL VALUES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ARE 40 TO 50 BELOW ZERO. HENCE... WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS THEN MET FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A VERY BRUTAL PERIOD AHEAD. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHES. SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW ARE IN FOR THESE PERIODS. THE ECMWF IS ADAMANT THAT MORE ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK/WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 546 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH WILL MAINLY IMPACT WRN WI...AS SNOW REPORTS HAVE BEEN HARD TO COME BY WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES. EXPECT A LONG BREAK IN SNOW UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE HRRR ALONG WITH OTHER HI-RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP BREAKING OUT AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN AROUND 20Z OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. 06Z TAFS HAD THIS TRENDED WELL...AND ONLY REALLY DELAYED SNOW ONSET BY AN HOUR. CIGS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING...AS STRONG SW WINDS ARE ALSO BRING WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. RAP WOULD SAY MVFR CIGS REMAIN TODAY NORTH OF I-94...WHILE THE NAM JUST TAKES A BAND ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SNOW. GIVEN EXNTENSIVE MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN MN...WENT WITH THE IDEA OF THE RAP...WITH THE NRN MN CIGS SLIDING SE INTO WRN WI TODAY. HAVE TEMPO MVFR CONDS IN THE MORNING FOR THE I-94 TAFS IN MN...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE LIGHT SNOW STARTS TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOP. SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. AS FOR BLSN...COMBINATION OF BLOWABLE SNOW BLOWN AWAY ON WEDNESDAY AND MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY SHOULD LIMIT THE AM0UNT OF BLSN WE SEE...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON BLSN MENTION IN TAFS. KMSP...LOOKING LIKE MSP WILL LARGELY MISS OUT ON SNOW THIS MORNING GIVEN LACK OF SNOW OBS MAKING INTO THE TWIN CITES. MSP WILL ALSO BE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE CIGS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 020 FOR A TIME THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS MUCH BETTER...WITH STRONG AGREEMENT ON ITS RETURN IN ALL GUIDANCE. EXPECT A RAPID CLEARING THIS AS NW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS BETWEEN 3Z AND 8Z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. MVFR/IFR -SN OVERNIGHT. WIND NW 10-15KTS BCMG W/SW LATE. SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SN. WINDS S BECOMING NW AT 20G35KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10G15KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
546 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 The large Arctic high will continue to sink southward away from the region today while the next frontal system begins driving southward into the northern Plains. In between the surface pressure gradient will tighten up as will the height field, resulting in rather strong winds through the lower trop. The combination of this along with mixing will produce strong and gusty southwest winds. Both MOS values and wind gusts from the HRRR and RAP suggest winds will meet advisory criteria across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with wind gusts of 40 kts possible. This regime is also favorable for a good warm-up even with the very cold start, and have highs above the MOS guidance. Glass .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 A nw flow shortwave and attendant ULJ will dig into the area tonight sending another cold front through the region. As has been the case recently, strong and gusty northwest winds will accompany the front. Large scale ascent associated with the shortwave appears sufficient to produce an area of light snow across northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Currently it looks like the St. Louis region will be on the western fringe of the snow field. I have bumped up pops in the high chance to likely category within the aforementioned zone, and anticipate amounts from a dusting to less than an inch. We remain in cyclonic flow and northwest winds on Saturday with temperatures expected to remain below average. The temperature see-saw then continues on Sunday as the weak high pressure ridge departs quickly on Saturday night and we are well into low-level warm advection just after midnight. Strong warm advection on Sunday and gusty southwest-west winds once again suggest a good warm-up with highs getting well above normal. Enjoy the "warmth" because it is all downhill after Sunday. The next formidable Arctic front/blast comes roaring into the region on Sunday night and the airmass with this front is the coldest since the early January Arctic outbreak. A large full latitude longwave trof will continue to dominate central and eastern NOAM through the middle of next week keeping very cold conditions locked in across the region. The models are finally showing signs this blocky cold pattern breaking down and by early February suggest a negative phase of the PNA pattern will become established. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 546 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 As surface ridge moves off the south today, next system to approach area from the north tightening the gradient. So will see winds pickup and veer to the southwest this morning with gusts near 35 kts at times, especially over central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois. Mid and high clouds to be on the increase as system gets closer. Then winds to diminish just a bit this evening before veering to the west to northwest after 06z Saturday as frontal boundary moves through, but winds will continue to gust to near 25kts at times. Cigs to lower to low end vfr/high end mvfr as front moves through. Some light snow is possible with this front, mainly along and east of Mississippi River, so added mention to KUIN with flurries in metro area tafs. Specifics for KSTL: As surface ridge moves off the south today, next system to approach area from the north tightening the gradient. So will see winds pickup and veer to the southwest this morning with gusts near 30 kts at times. Mid and high clouds to be on the increase as system gets closer. Then winds to diminish just a bit by 03z Saturday before veering to the northwest by 09z Saturday as frontal boundary moves through, but winds will continue to gust to near 25kts at times. Cigs to lower to low end vfr as front moves through. Some light snow is possible with this front, mainly east of Mississippi River, so added mention of flurries in metro area tafs. Byrd && .FIRE WEATHER: Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 The previously coordinated and issued Red Flag Warning still looks on target with strong and gusty southwest winds, very low afternoon RH, and 10h fuel moisture below 9%. The only change was to add a few more counties to the northwest of the previous area due to warmer temps and lower RH, so now all of central, east central, and southeast Missouri is under a Red Flag Warning. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO- Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 Today: Primary focus will be on strong wind potential and critical fire danger (see FIRE WEATHER section below). For the umpteenth time this month, yet another strong mid level gyre will drop south from central Canada, replacing the arctic air with increasingly mild conditions. Surface pressures which started out at around 1044mb at 00Z, will crash to near 1014mb by 00Z this evening. Aches and pains alert! Incredible 30mb/24-hour pressure falls, coupled with 50-60 knot 925mb flow, will once again set the stage for very windy conditions across the region. As has been the case with the last several wind events, strong vertical mixing and downward momentum transfer will contribute to very strong gusts that will be well above what is "typically" expected for forecast sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph. Other than scattered mid cloud, ample sunshine should help realize nearly maximum gust potential, with the RAP and HRRR both suggesting widespread gusts exceeding 40 knots from late morning through mid afternoon, as the pressure wave pushes southeast. Have collaborated a wind advisory which will run from 10AM through 2PM across far NW MO/NE KS, and through 6PM across most of west central/central/northeast MO into far eastern Kansas. Despite the southwest winds, warm advection will lag quite a bit, with most of the diurnal temperature boost coming in the 11AM-3PM time frame. As a result, another very cold start expected this morning with wind chills in the -5 to -10F range as the kids head to the bus stop. Tonight-Saturday: Deep mixing will keep temperatures relatively mild tonight with lows running some 20 degrees warmer than this morning. A few flurries to a light dusting of snow could glance the far NE counties, but the bulk of any very minor accumulations should once again fall well east of the region as the strongest mid level ascent shifts into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Weak cyclonic flow and cloud cover beneath and intense upper jet will lend to a challenging temperature forecast Saturday. High temperatures will range some 15-20 degrees from the upper 20s near Kirksville to the mid 40s across west central MO, and the gradient magnitude varies considerably among the 00Z models. Sunday-Sunday Night: Low level temps will steadily warm Saturday night and early Sunday ahead of the next arctic blast. 925mb temps could reach +10C, suggesting that temperatures will likely reach the low-mid 50s across all but far nrn MO before frontal passage late in the afternoon. Definitely the mildest day in the coming week. In a reversal of fortune so to speak, surface pressures will increase 30mb from 12Z Sunday to 12Z Monday, coincident with a strong arctic blast trailing yet another Canadian Clipper. Temperatures will plummet some 45 to 50 degrees from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning, and I would not be surprised to see wind gusts again in the 30-40 mph range Sunday evening. (Need to do some research as I cannot ever recall this magnitude of wind in January across Missouri). Monday-Thursday: See no change in the overall upper flow pattern to round out the end of the month. Above average confidence in little to no measurable precipitation, and above average confidence in much below normal temperatures Monday/Tuesday, then trending back toward normal Wednesday/Thursday ahead of the next closed low in the sequence dropping south through the Canadian Prairies. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected along and south of a St. Joseph to Carrollton to Moberly line from late morning through mid afternoon. Early morning observations show a very dry boundary layer in place with dewpoints in the single digits below zero. Very little moderate of this airmass is expected as temperatures steadily warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, yielding relative humidity values between 18 and 25%. The very dry airmass and 10-hour fuel stick moistures of 7-8% will contribute to a very volatile setup as southwest winds increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Given the potential for rapid grassland fire spread, a red flag warning remains in effect from 10AM thru 8PM for the aforementioned areas. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 535 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 Low level wind shear will continue for the next couple of hours (SE 50 knots at 2Kft AGL), until stronger winds begin to mix down to the surface by mid morning. Already seeing the beginning of that with 20-25 knot gusts across NW MO. Conservatively could see winds gust 30 to 35 knots during the late morning and most of the afternoon, and would not be surprised to see a few gusts in the 40 to 45 knot range, especially where favored at MCI. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period with patches of mid-high cloud today. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105. WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105. WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ025-102. MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ020>022-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ008-017-021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ001>007-011>016-020. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bookbinder AVIATION...Bookbinder FIRE WEATHER...Bookbinder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
425 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 The large Arctic high will continue to sink southward away from the region today while the next frontal system begins driving southward into the northern Plains. In between the surface pressure gradient will tighten up as will the height field, resulting in rather strong winds through the lower trop. The combination of this along with mixing will produce strong and gusty southwest winds. Both MOS values and wind gusts from the HRRR and RAP suggest winds will meet advisory criteria across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with wind gusts of 40 kts possible. This regime is also favorable for a good warm-up even with the very cold start, and have highs above the MOS guidance. Glass .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 A nw flow shortwave and attendant ULJ will dig into the area tonight sending another cold front through the region. As has been the case recently, strong and gusty northwest winds will accompany the front. Large scale ascent associated with the shortwave appears sufficient to produce an area of light snow across northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Currently it looks like the St. Louis region will be on the western fringe of the snow field. I have bumped up pops in the high chance to likely category within the aforementioned zone, and anticipate amounts from a dusting to less than an inch. We remain in cyclonic flow and northwest winds on Saturday with temperatures expected to remain below average. The temperature see-saw then continues on Sunday as the weak high pressure ridge departs quickly on Saturday night and we are well into low-level warm advection just after midnight. Strong warm advection on Sunday and gusty southwest-west winds once again suggest a good warm-up with highs getting well above normal. Enjoy the "warmth" because it is all downhill after Sunday. The next formidable Arctic front/blast comes roaring into the region on Sunday night and the airmass with this front is the coldest since the early January Arctic outbreak. A large full latitude longwave trof will continue to dominate central and eastern NOAM through the middle of next week keeping very cold conditions locked in across the region. The models are finally showing signs this blocky cold pattern breaking down and by early February suggest a negative phase of the PNA pattern will become established. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2014 VFR fcst with sfc ridge settling south into TX tonight. Main story will be the gusty SSW winds on Friday. Winds are in the process of going sthrly tonight. All model guidance indicates 40 to 60 kts of wind just a couple thousand feet off the ground. Some of this is fcst to mix to the sfc. The pressure gradient also increases significantly tomorrow. This means sustained wind near 20 kts with gusts 30 to 35kts. This could lead to crosswind concerns on certain runway configurations. Removed the mention of LLWS except at KCPS and KSUS. Think that the threat remains marginal as the winds aloft arrive just before mixing begins. I think there may still be a brief window of a couple hrs as mixing is delayed due to the location of the arpts in river valleys. Otherwise...expect an increase in mid/high level cloudiness and continued gusty winds. Specifics for KSTL: VFR fcst with the main concern gusty SSW winds. This will likley become a crosswind concern later Friday morning and continuing thru the rest of the day. Winds eventually will become NW by Saturday morning. I removed the mention of LLWS as the window of opportunity looks too narrow on the order of a couple hrs. The stronger winds aloft arrive just before mixing begins. 2% && .FIRE WEATHER: Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 The previously coordinated and issued Red Flag Warning still looks on target with strong and gusty southwest winds, very low afternoon RH, and 10h fuel moisture below 9%. The only change was to add a few more counties to the northwest of the previous area due to warmer temps and lower RH, so now all of central, east central, and southeast Missouri is under a Red Flag Warning. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO- Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
520 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 .AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE... LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CEILINGS IMPACT KCKV TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KCKV. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/ DISCUSSION... WILL LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 12Z. SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS FARTHER SOUTH OF TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS DIVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AROUND 850 MBARS ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH WINDS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TURN WESTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA. LATEST RUC SOUNDING SHOWING VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. I/R SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS FIBRATUS SCOOTING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH 160 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPING AM EXPECTING TEMPS TONIGHT TO ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS PRESENTS KNOWN HERE IN THE MID STATE AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CONTINUING EAST OF INTERSTATE 24 SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A HALF INCH ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND SATURDAY MORNING. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ITS NOT AS COLD BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AS PREVIOUS CLIPPERS. SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AROUND 50 MANY AREAS WITH MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE PLATEAU. A STRONGER CLIPPER COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE WORK WEEK LOOKS COLD AND SOMEWHAT A REPEAT OF WHAT WE JUST HAD. LOOKING FARTHER OUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET BECOMES DOMINATE. THIS BEGINS TO SHOW UP ON THE EURO BY THE 31ST OF JANUARY AND CONTINUES PAST GROUNDHOG DAY. LETS HOPE ITS A CLOUDY DAY WHEN HE EMERGES FROM HIS BURROW. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011- 032>034-065-066-078>080. && $$ TB12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
739 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 .UPDATE... DROPPING WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST. && .DISCUSSION... GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED SO WILL DROP THE ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WILL LET THE WSW CONTINUE DEPITE THE DWINDLING THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP. ROADS ARE ICY EVERYWHERE AND FEEL IT IS BEST JUST TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/ DISCUSSION... SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. MARINE DISCUSSION INCLUDED AS WELL. 40 AVIATION... RADAR TRENDS WERE ENDING THE PRECIP OVER KCLL AND KUTS. THINK THAT THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR ICE PELLETS THROUGH 13Z. TRENDED THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP AT KCXO AND KIAH. WAS LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP FROM KHOU AND KSGR TO THE COAST. RADAR INDICATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS CONTINUING TO GENERATE PRECIP WELL WEST OF KLBX. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR FREEZING THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING. THE MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THESE TWO SITES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND EARLY THIS EVENING TOWARD THE COAST. 40 MARINE... GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT. 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/ DISCUSSION... SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS LOOK LIKELY FROM MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLDSPRING. QUITE A LULL IN PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO THE REGION AND RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES WILL START TO FREEZE. TXDOT IS REPORTING ICE ON MANY ROADS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND THIS APPEARS TO BE BACKED UP BY RADAR WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY NOT MEET WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA BUT DON`T SEE THE SENSE IN SWITCHING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. WILL RE-EVALUATE AT 12Z ONCE THE MORNING SOUNDINGS COME IN...BUT FEEL THE WSW COULD BE DROPPED BY 15Z. DON`T BE SURPRISED IF AN UPDATED FORECAST IS ISSUED BETWEEN 6-7 AM. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING FROM THE TOP SO SNOW NORTH OF HOUSTON WILL LOSE THEIR ICE CRYSTALS AND PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO ICE PELLETS OR FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...06Z SOUNDING LAUNCHED AT THE UNIV OF HOUSTON SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 900-700 MB AND A SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM 900 MB TO NEAR 1000 MB. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE WILL AFFECT HOUSTON METRO AREAS FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE ENDING. THE STRONG RRQ WHICH HAS ENHANCED LIFT IS PULLING AWAY AND OMEGA WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING SO FEEL MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS CLOUDY ALL DAY SO DON`T EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL RELAX LATER TODAY. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST THRU 15Z BUT THE TREND IS FOR WINDS TO RELAX THIS MORNING. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SAT/SUN AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S TUES/WED MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE DRY WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHILE THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 37 29 59 40 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 36 31 59 42 67 / 20 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 37 37 55 48 64 / 40 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS... COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS... HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER... WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON... MATAGORDA. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 .DISCUSSION... SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. MARINE DISCUSSION INCLUDED AS WELL. 40 && .AVIATION... RADAR TRENDS WERE ENDING THE PRECIP OVER KCLL AND KUTS. THINK THAT THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR ICE PELLETS THROUGH 13Z. TRENDED THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP AT KCXO AND KIAH. WAS LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP FROM KHOU AND KSGR TO THE COAST. RADAR INDICATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS CONTINUING TO GENERATE PRECIP WELL WEST OF KLBX. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR FREEZING THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING. THE MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THESE TWO SITES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND EARLY THIS EVENING TOWARD THE COAST. 40 && .MARINE... GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/ DISCUSSION... SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS LOOK LIKELY FROM MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLDSPRING. QUITE A LULL IN PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO THE REGION AND RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES WILL START TO FREEZE. TXDOT IS REPORTING ICE ON MANY ROADS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND THIS APPEARS TO BE BACKED UP BY RADAR WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY NOT MEET WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA BUT DON`T SEE THE SENSE IN SWITCHING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. WILL RE-EVALUATE AT 12Z ONCE THE MORNING SOUNDINGS COME IN...BUT FEEL THE WSW COULD BE DROPPED BY 15Z. DON`T BE SURPRISED IF AN UPDATED FORECAST IS ISSUED BETWEEN 6-7 AM. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING FROM THE TOP SO SNOW NORTH OF HOUSTON WILL LOSE THEIR ICE CRYSTALS AND PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO ICE PELLETS OR FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...06Z SOUNDING LAUNCHED AT THE UNIV OF HOUSTON SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 900-700 MB AND A SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM 900 MB TO NEAR 1000 MB. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE WILL AFFECT HOUSTON METRO AREAS FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE ENDING. THE STRONG RRQ WHICH HAS ENHANCED LIFT IS PULLING AWAY AND OMEGA WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING SO FEEL MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS CLOUDY ALL DAY SO DON`T EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL RELAX LATER TODAY. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST THRU 15Z BUT THE TREND IS FOR WINDS TO RELAX THIS MORNING. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SAT/SUN AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S TUES/WED MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE DRY WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHILE THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 37 29 59 40 67 / 40 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 36 31 59 42 67 / 70 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 37 37 55 48 64 / 70 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS... COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS... HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER... WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON... MATAGORDA. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FORT BEND...HARRIS...WHARTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...43 AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NEW MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH STALLED AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS GENERALLY TREATED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. LOSING SOME OF THAT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT TO THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THAT TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY SLOWLY RELAX TO NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS BY TOMORROW. THAT SNEAKY LITTLE TROPICALLY INFLUENCED IMPULSE ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST NOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN BAJA WITH SOME MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT JUST AHEAD OF IT INTO NORTHERN SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE .44 PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING WILL PUSH INTO THE .55 RANGE THIS EVENING...MAYBE A TOUCH HIGHER OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODEL LAYERED MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY DEEPEN THE MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS FOR BORDER AREAS. WEAK ECHOES FILLING IN ON THE RADAR AS THIS OCCURS BUT NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND YET. LATEST HRRR 3KM HAS LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND 6-7PM WITH VIRGA AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TUCSON AREA AROUND 10-11PM. STILL LOOKING FOR UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE (TRACE - .03) IN SOUTHERN AREAS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE (LIKE TUCSON). SOME CLEARING SATURDAY FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...HELPED BY A SECONDARY WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WRAPPING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA. NOT MUCH LEFT OF THE COOLER AIR THAT WORKED INTO EASTERN AREAS FROM THE EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR MANY AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES UNTIL SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A BROADER SCALED SPLIT MEAN TROUGH POSITION THROUGH THE CONUS BUCKLING THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE (THE PORTION PROTECTING US) AROUND NEXT WEEKEND TO START FEBRUARY. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z. SCT-BKN120 OVC200...AFT 25/06Z SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL AND OVC CLOUDS AOA 15K FT AGL...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AFTER 25/18Z. ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND OF 10-16 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS UNTIL 25/03Z. SURFACE WIND DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 25/08Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL EASE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY. WINDS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WILL BE DIURNAL IN DIRECTION WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON WESTERLIES BEING A BIT STRONGER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN. A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON MEYER/CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COOLER TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF THINGS GOING ON THIS MORNING. FIRST IS THE DECAYING AND STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH COOLER AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM NEW MEXICO. GUSTY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SO FAR THE FORECAST HANDLES THIS PRETTY WELL WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY IN SPOTS BUT BELOW ANY ADVISORY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A TREND OUT WEST BUT THE 6-10 DEGREES OF COOLING IN EASTERN AREAS SEEMS GOOD AS LONG AS THINGS DON`T WASH OUT TOO MUCH. TUCSON IN BETWEEN...STILL SEEMS LIKE A DECENT BET TO KNOCK 1-4 DEGREES OFF OF YESTERDAY`S LOWER 70S AT TIA. SECONDLY...WE HAVE A WEAK TROPICALLY INFLUENCED IMPULSE ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODEL LAYERED MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY DEEPEN THE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BORDER TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR 3KM HAS LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND 01Z WITH VIRGA AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS THE GREEN VALLEY AREA AROUND 03Z. DON`T EXPECT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWARD PROGRESS THAN MAYBE TUCSON AND THE CATALINAS SO WE`LL KEEP THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS FAR NORTH AS THE GREATER TUCSON AREA TONIGHT. AFTER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THESE TRENDS WELL. STILL LOOKING FOR UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE (TRACE - .02) IN SOUTHERN AREAS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE (LIKE TUCSON). I GUESS ANY PRECIP IS WORTH MENTIONING WHEN YOU HAVE BEEN DRY FOR OVER A MONTH DURING YOUR SECONDARY WET SEASON. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THIS MORNING. LATEST MODELS SHOWED THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING BY SATURDAY FOR LESS WIND. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...DAYTIME READINGS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH NEXT WEEK UNDER THE DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8K-12K FT AGL AND OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 25/12Z...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AFTER 25/18Z. ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND OF 12-20 KTS AND GUSTS OF 22-30 KTS UNTIL 24/23Z. SURFACE WIND DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 25/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. SOME WIND PRONE LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. AFTER TODAY...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON MEYER/CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2014 .UPDATE... && .SHORT TERM...OVERALL...CURRENT FORECASTS ON TRACK. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG FOOTHILLS AND HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME... HIGHEST GUSTS WERE AROUND 30 MPH. 1500M PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM GRAND JUNCTION TO DENVER HAS INCREASED TO 10.36 MB...UP FROM 9.17 MB AT 15Z. WEAK MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION AND MOUNTAIN WAVE CREATING THE GUSTY WINDS. MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN INTO THE EVENING...SO THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST RAP SPATIAL CROSS SECTION INDICATING CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW OF AROUND 25 KTS...SO ANY THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS LOW. RAP AND HRRR SHOW GUST POTENTIAL OF 40-45 KTS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...SO SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS WITH THE RECENT SNOW FROM YESTERDAY. FOR NOW WILL JUST COVER IN NOWCASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME MIXING AND INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. THERE MAY BE SOME BLOWING SNOW THERE AS WELL...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST WITH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY TODAY...TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 40S ALONG AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH 30S MOST AREAS ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. LAGGING BEHIND ARE LOCATIONS IN THE LOW LYING AREAS FROM GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. .AVIATION...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY 19Z. POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KTS WITH PERHAPS 30 KTS AT KBJC. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUGGESTING LIGHTER WINDS BY 20Z AT KDEN AND KAPA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING EXPECTED...NOT SURE ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERLIES OCCURRING EVEN WITH THE SNOW COVER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE CURRENT TAFS...AND MONITOR FOR ANY WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...STILL LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL. CEILINGS AS LOW AS 6000 FEET AGL LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT. DRAINAGE TO DEVELOP BY 02Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2014/ SHORT TERM...WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE KICKED IN. THERE IS A MEAN STATE CRITICAL LAYER IN PLACE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS IN AND RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT IS ONLY ABOUT 25-30 KTS SO DONT SEE ANY HIGH WIND THREAT AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE BOOSTED WIND FORECAST A LITTLE MORE. THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY POWDERY SNOW FROM YESTERDAY COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN OPEN AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 93 AND POINTS CLOSER TO THE WYOMING BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO SNOW COVER...SHALLOW STRONG INVERSIONS...AND AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME... EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SCOUR OUT WITH INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE A CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN LOW LYING AREAS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE GREELEY-FORT MORGAN CORRIDOR AND THEN DOWN INTO LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE NOT SURE IF INVERSIONS WILL BREAK WITH SNOW COVER. ALSO EXPECT A DECENT WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SPILLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. MAY EVEN SEE A LITTLE VIRGA CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AND A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW ANY GUSTY WINDS TO DECREASE IN THE EVENING. LONG TERM...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS WARM AIR UNDER THE LARGE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS SATURDAY. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS YIELDING TO AN ARCTIC INTRUSION DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITIONAL AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT AND COLD AIR BEGINS POURING INTO THE STATE. ALOFT...STRONG CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FRONTOGENESIS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A LARGE BAND OF SNOWFALL THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THEN THE BIG STORY ON MONDAY IS GOING TO BE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER BE IN THE UPPER TEENS OR LOWER 20S AS THE SNOWFALL CONTINUES. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY ALSO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STILL BE OVER THE STATE...BUT MAY BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN. EACH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION THROUGH TUESDAY. LESS AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS GOING TO BE UNDERCUT BY SOME ZONAL FLOW OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW PRODUCTION GOING WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PLAINS LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER WITH MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND CLIMATOLOGY...IF NOT A LITTLE WARMER. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. ENHANCED DRAINAGE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AT KDEN AND KAPA BY 18Z-20Z. KBJC COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS. MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK ABOVE 12000 FEET EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL CEILINGS AS LOW AS 6000 FT AGL COULD OCCUR JUST EAST OF KDEN FROM 17Z-03Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...D-L LONG TERM....DANKERS AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1201 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 ...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 STRONG WAA LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HELPING TO PUSH MAX TEMPS ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS. THE LATEST ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST WITH TODAYS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE LATELY WITH THESE QUICK ONE DAY WARM-UPS. IF MIXED TO JUST 900MB...TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY WHICH RESULTED IN WARMING TEMPS UP 5 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO MIX SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH BETTER SUNSHINE...SO WIND GUSTS MAY TEETER ON ADVISORY LEVEL FOR A SHORT TIME FRAME LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A QUICK SHOT OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN TIERS OF FORECAST THRU 18Z. HIRES ARW/NMM WRF MODELS BARELY HAVE ANY PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THE LATEST HOPWRF (24.06Z) AND HRRR (24.06Z) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEM. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING FROM 13-17Z AND KEPT MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE HIRES ARW/NMM WRF MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY 22Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. SO WENT DRY 18Z TO 21Z AND CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF IOWA COUNTIES. MCW SOUNDING QUICKLY BECOMES DEEPLY SATURATED BY AROUND 00Z AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SNOW/RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST...AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW MELT PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 WEATHER WILL BE VERY ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT HEADLINE EVENTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...INCLUDING WHAT MAY BE A BLIZZARD LATE SUNDAY. INITIAL SYSTEM TONIGHT...WHICH WILL NOT BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...SHOULD BE ENTERING NRN IA AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS HUDSON BAY LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DEEP BUT SOMEWHAT PATCHY WITH NAM LIFT MORE BULLISH THAN GFS OR ECMWF. WITH FAST MOVEMENT AND FOLLOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...ANY UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FLEETING. AFOREMENTIONED WARMER SOLUTIONS BRING MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE OR AT LEAST NEAR THE FREEZING MARK MAKING THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE RAIN SW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER NORTHEAST. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL ALSO RAISE LOWEST 1KM TEMPS HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW RATIOS SO ONLY EXPECT ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS FAR NORTHEAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN FOLLOW SAT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN LITTLE DIURNAL REBOUND. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAKE HIGHS AND LOWS PROBLEMATIC WITH LOWER/RISING TEMPS AT TIMES CENTERED AROUND DAYS/NIGHTS RESPECTIVELY. ATTENTION WILL THEN QUICKLY TURN UPSTREAM WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP NW-SE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE DEEP...AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DECENT KINEMATIC LIFT...IT SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY STRONG AND IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING /THETA-E ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS/. THIS DEEP LIFT AND COOLER COLUMN TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAN TONIGHT...WELL INTO THE TEENS. RATIOS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...OVER 20...BUT THE MAX LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE 1-2KM AND MAINLY BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED RATIOS AND FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT...LIKELY SNOWING LESS THAN SIX HOURS AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION...SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN THE FAR NE CORNERS AS WELL /MASON CITY/WATERLOO NORTH/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT THE GREATEST ON AMOUNTS HOWEVER AS ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED THEIR SNOW AXIS EMPHASIS. ECMWF NOW EMPHASIZES MORE NELY TRACK. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE BIG IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS NOT SEEN UNTIL SUN AND SUN EVENING. MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS...BUT LARGER PROBLEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND A BIG CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS OFTEN 40-55KTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH. NO HEADLINES AS OF YET IN THIS PERIOD...BUT OPTIONS MAY ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM WIND ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS TO FULL FLEDGED BLIZZARD WARNINGS IF FORECASTED SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOMEWHAT OF A WORSE CASE SCENARIO WITH A MYRIAD OF HAZARDS INTO MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS NE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH...READINGS MAY SURGE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK NW-SE ALONG THE SWRN FRINGE OF SNOW ACCUMS WITH SOME MINOR MELTING FOLLOWED BY A FLASH FREEZE WITH SHARP TEMP DROP LATER IN THE EVENING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER ARCTIC COLD WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ISSUES AND CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW NE HALF. SERIOUS...LIFE THREATENING TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NE HALF MON MORNING. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TO MAKE ANY HEADWAY...ASSUMING FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS OF COURSE. THIS WOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 45 BELOW. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN INTO TUE...AND PERSISTENT NWLY WINDS...TEMPS AT MASON CITY FOR INSTANCE MAY NOT TOP ZERO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A 30 HOUR PERIOD WITH AT LEAST MINOR BLOWING SNOW AND WARNING CRITERIA WIND CHILLS /-30F/. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL NEED CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS SOMEWHAT MORE INACTIVE THANKFULLY WITH ONLY PRECIP WINDOW AROUND WED NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS A LOBE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO END THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...24/18Z ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z SAT. WINDS GENERALLY TO STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND GUSTS TO IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. STARTING AROUND 22Z FRI...WINTRY PRECIP WILL START OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES...REACHING BOTH KDSM AND KALO BY AROUND 23Z AND KOTM BY 01Z SAT. KMCW AND KALO WILL HAVE -SN...KFOD -RASN...AND BOTH KDSM AND KOTM -RN. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO KALO AND KMCW DURING PERIODS OF SNOW. CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AS PRECIP MOVES IN. SKIES CLEARING BY 12Z SAT FOR ALL TAF SITES. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK LONG TERM...SMALL AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1243 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR MORE WILL BECOME LIKELY. THIS WIND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH RECENT SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BECOME WORSE THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA ALONG WITH MORE WIND AND COLD AIR. THIS COULD PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF IMPACT TO THE AREA WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. MORE COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT WILL RULE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1008 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE LAKE ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT IS STARTING TO INCREASE AND SHOULD BE GOING STRONG BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM. THERE MAY BE A SORT OF LULL FOR A FEW HOURS THEN THE MORE SYNOPTIC PART OF THE STORM KICKS IN AROUND 7 PM AND SHOULD GO TILL AROUND 6 AM. IT DURING THAT TIME MOST OF THE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS OF 10 AM WE HAVE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW OVER MOST OF OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AND BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW NORTH OF THERE. AS THE WIND INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE SO I EXPECT OVERALL THE WIND CHILLS TO WARM SOME...BEING IN THE 0 TO 10 BELOW RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOW THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES WILL HAVE 50 TO 55 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER (3000 FT IN DEPTH) FROM 1 PM TILL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH RANGE MKG...GRR AND BIV HAVE VISIBILITIES UNDER 3 MILES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ONCE THE SNOW RATES INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH WE WILL BE SEEING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF WE NEED TO UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING... HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT STILL SEEMS TO ME WE CAN GO AHEAD WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE. ONE OTHER ISSUE TO ADDRESS LATER IS THE LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THE STORM SATURDAY. I COULD SEE EXPANDED THE WARNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF US-131. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVENT EXPECTED FOR TODAY INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA AS CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS. THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT HAS DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES AS THE UPPER JET IS SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CLOUDS HOLDING IN THUS FAR HAVE KEPT TEMPS AND RESULTING WIND CHILLS IN CHECK. WE DO EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CLEARING FROM THE S WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE SE WITH THE FLOW GOING SW. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP AND DRIVE THE WIND CHILLS DOWN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND REALLY GET CRANKING AROUND MID MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR CENTERED AROUND 18Z +/- A COUPLE OF HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. THESE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WHILE LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS FALLING THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL HAVE THE FRESH SNOW FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. HOW MUCH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SNOW STARTS FALLING IS UNCERTAIN. THIS IS ONE REASON WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP UP NORTH WITH THE BETTER WINDS STILL IN PLACE...SO THE WARNING AREA UP NORTH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED A BIT CLOSER. THE WORST BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL OCCUR WHILE THE WINDS ARE STILL UP THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THE SNOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH. THIS SNOW PORTION OF THE EVENT WILL BE A COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH DELTA T/S EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS C BY THAT TIME. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME FAIRLY ROBUST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA LIKELY DUE TO THE WINDS COMING OFF OF THE LAKE AND DUE TO THE FLOW AND THE CONTOUR OF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS SIMILAR TO THE EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE DGZ IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HELP WITH ACCUMS. THIS PART OF THE EVENT WILL HELP THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA SEE THE HIGHEST ACCUMS DURING THE EVENT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THIS EVENING...AND THE THE CWFA WILL BE PLACED UNDER THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET DIVING IN WHICH WILL HELP ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE WINDS AND GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE CORE OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE SNOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWFA BY 12Z SAT...LEAVING LAKE EFFECT IN ITS WAKE. THE UPPER JET WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...ALLOWING FOR DECENT INVERSION HTS/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ACROSS THE NW AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WITH MEAN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD OVERHEAD. SAT NIGHT COULD BE A COLD NIGHT INLAND WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 MORE HIGH IMPACT/HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW....AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO. SCHOOL/BUSINESS CLOSURES ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WHERE FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL APPEAR LIKELY AGAIN. THE NEXT CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GRTLKS REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND PLACEMENT/COVERAGE OF HIGHEST SYNOPTIC SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH HOWEVER IN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RIVAL THAT OF JANUARY 6-7 WHICH IRONICALLY WAS ALSO A MONDAY/TUESDAY EVENT. FINE SNOWFLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 BUT WILL STILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES AND ICY ROAD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LIFTS OUT... BUT MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY AS CYCLONIC WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL ALSO FALL AT KMKG/KGRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VSBYS WILL BE LOWEST AT KMKG. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL FALL MID EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 327 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 LITTLE QUESTION ON THE GALE WINDS FRIDAY BUT WHAT I THROUGH WE WOULD ALSO NEED WAS A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SO I ADD THAT TO THE HEADLINE MIX IN THE NEAR SHORE PRODUCTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 135 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 RIVERS LEVELS ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. STABLE ICE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER. THE ICE JAM THREAT IS LOW AND THERE IS NO CURRENT INDICATIONS OF ANY ICE JAMS ON THE RIVER NETWORK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043- 044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ039-040- 045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074. LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...93 HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1201 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 .UPDATE: Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 Going forecasts still looking pretty good for this afternoon. Strong winds and low RH values are the primary concerns for the FA, and area/timing of going headlines still appear to be on the mark. Only real concern regarding sensible weather trends is temperatures, which appear to be warming slower than initially expected. Given the depth of the cold air that the mixing is trying to erode we may be a bit too warm on afternoon max temps, but given very favorable synoptic setup for a pronounced warmup am hesitant to make too much of a downward adjustment at this time. Truett && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 The large Arctic high will continue to sink southward away from the region today while the next frontal system begins driving southward into the northern Plains. In between the surface pressure gradient will tighten up as will the height field, resulting in rather strong winds through the lower trop. The combination of this along with mixing will produce strong and gusty southwest winds. Both MOS values and wind gusts from the HRRR and RAP suggest winds will meet advisory criteria across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with wind gusts of 40 kts possible. This regime is also favorable for a good warm-up even with the very cold start, and have highs above the MOS guidance. Glass .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 A nw flow shortwave and attendant ULJ will dig into the area tonight sending another cold front through the region. As has been the case recently, strong and gusty northwest winds will accompany the front. Large scale ascent associated with the shortwave appears sufficient to produce an area of light snow across northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Currently it looks like the St. Louis region will be on the western fringe of the snow field. I have bumped up pops in the high chance to likely category within the aforementioned zone, and anticipate amounts from a dusting to less than an inch. We remain in cyclonic flow and northwest winds on Saturday with temperatures expected to remain below average. The temperature see-saw then continues on Sunday as the weak high pressure ridge departs quickly on Saturday night and we are well into low-level warm advection just after midnight. Strong warm advection on Sunday and gusty southwest-west winds once again suggest a good warm-up with highs getting well above normal. Enjoy the "warmth" because it is all downhill after Sunday. The next formidable Arctic front/blast comes roaring into the region on Sunday night and the airmass with this front is the coldest since the early January Arctic outbreak. A large full latitude longwave trof will continue to dominate central and eastern NOAM through the middle of next week keeping very cold conditions locked in across the region. The models are finally showing signs this blocky cold pattern breaking down and by early February suggest a negative phase of the PNA pattern will become established. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 Strong surface winds will highlight this TAF period...with intense SW winds this afternoon transitioning to the NW late tonight and Saturday morning with a passage of yet another fast moving cold front. Core of highest winds this afternoon should be along the COU/UIN corridor, with frequent gusts in the 30-35kt range. Cloud will be limited to the mid and high levels this afternoon (aoa 10kft), but will lower this evening as the cold front presses into the region. Believe much of this cloudiness will remain in the VFR cat (3-5kft), but areas of snow clipping the Mississippi River will produce briefly lower conditions (MVFR/IFR), primarily at UIN and just east of STL metro. Specifics for KSTL: Into the early evening forecast will be dominated by SW surface winds (210-230 degrees) gusting to near 30kts along with patches of mid and high level cloudiness. Winds will veer overnight as cold front moves in, which should also be accompanied by ceilings lowering to the 3-5kft range. Have continued mention of flurries for a few predawn hours, but latest short range guidance is suggesting that bulk of the snow...and the lowest conditions...will be occurring just northeast or east of STL. Truett && .FIRE WEATHER: Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 Although have made minor tweeks to winds, temps, and dewpoints/RH, timing and area of Red Flag Warning which covers central, east central and southeast Missouri still looks very good. If temperatures don`t warm as much as expected a few of the eastern fringe areas may not reach the critical RH below 25%, but at this point, but for reasons noted in short range AFD discussion no major adjustments made at this time. Truett && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Dent MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO- St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Adams IL-Brown IL- Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 Today: Primary focus will be on strong wind potential and critical fire danger (see FIRE WEATHER section below). For the umpteenth time this month, yet another strong mid level gyre will drop south from central Canada, replacing the arctic air with increasingly mild conditions. Surface pressures which started out at around 1044mb at 00Z, will crash to near 1014mb by 00Z this evening. Aches and pains alert! Incredible 30mb/24-hour pressure falls, coupled with 50-60 knot 925mb flow, will once again set the stage for very windy conditions across the region. As has been the case with the last several wind events, strong vertical mixing and downward momentum transfer will contribute to very strong gusts that will be well above what is "typically" expected for forecast sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph. Other than scattered mid cloud, ample sunshine should help realize nearly maximum gust potential, with the RAP and HRRR both suggesting widespread gusts exceeding 40 knots from late morning through mid afternoon, as the pressure wave pushes southeast. Have collaborated a wind advisory which will run from 10AM through 2PM across far NW MO/NE KS, and through 6PM across most of west central/central/northeast MO into far eastern Kansas. Despite the southwest winds, warm advection will lag quite a bit, with most of the diurnal temperature boost coming in the 11AM-3PM time frame. As a result, another very cold start expected this morning with wind chills in the -5 to -10F range as the kids head to the bus stop. Tonight-Saturday: Deep mixing will keep temperatures relatively mild tonight with lows running some 20 degrees warmer than this morning. A few flurries to a light dusting of snow could glance the far NE counties, but the bulk of any very minor accumulations should once again fall well east of the region as the strongest mid level ascent shifts into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Weak cyclonic flow and cloud cover beneath and intense upper jet will lend to a challenging temperature forecast Saturday. High temperatures will range some 15-20 degrees from the upper 20s near Kirksville to the mid 40s across west central MO, and the gradient magnitude varies considerably among the 00Z models. Sunday-Sunday Night: Low level temps will steadily warm Saturday night and early Sunday ahead of the next arctic blast. 925mb temps could reach +10C, suggesting that temperatures will likely reach the low-mid 50s across all but far nrn MO before frontal passage late in the afternoon. Definitely the mildest day in the coming week. In a reversal of fortune so to speak, surface pressures will increase 30mb from 12Z Sunday to 12Z Monday, coincident with a strong arctic blast trailing yet another Canadian Clipper. Temperatures will plummet some 45 to 50 degrees from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning, and I would not be surprised to see wind gusts again in the 30-40 mph range Sunday evening. (Need to do some research as I cannot ever recall this magnitude of wind in January across Missouri). Monday-Thursday: See no change in the overall upper flow pattern to round out the end of the month. Above average confidence in little to no measurable precipitation, and above average confidence in much below normal temperatures Monday/Tuesday, then trending back toward normal Wednesday/Thursday ahead of the next closed low in the sequence dropping south through the Canadian Prairies. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 Gusty southwest winds will continue through the day around 20 to 30 kts with gusts approaching 35 to 40 kts at times. Although winds will gradually diminish through the evening to overnight hours expect winds to remain around 10 to 15 kts. There will be a gradual shift from SW to NW as a frontal passage comes through the area. By the end of the forecast period, expect winds to be out of the NW around 15 to 25 kts, likely increasing after this forecast period. There could be a brief period of MVFR stratus as the frontal passage occurs, but considering how uncertain the soundings look and the brief time it would occur, kept that period VFR for now, and will reassess as the front approaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected along and south of a St. Joseph to Carrollton to Moberly line from late morning through mid afternoon. Early morning observations show a very dry boundary layer in place with dew points in the single digits below zero. Very little moderate of this air mass is expected as temperatures steadily warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, yielding relative humidity values between 18 and 25%. The very dry air mass and 10-hour fuel stick moisture of 7-8% will contribute to a very volatile setup as southwest winds increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Given the potential for rapid grassland fire spread, a red flag warning remains in effect from 10AM through 8PM for the aforementioned areas. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ057-060-103>105. WIND ADVISORY until 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ025-102. MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ020>025- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ008-017-021>025- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. WIND ADVISORY until 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ001>007- 011>016-020. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bookbinder AVIATION...Leighton FIRE WEATHER...Bookbinder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1159 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 .UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. UNCERTAINTIES...ACTUAL CEILING PROGRESSION DEVELOPMENTAL TIMING AFTER 25/03Z...IMPACTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHWRS CSV AND LLWS POTENTIAL 25/09Z-25/18Z. AS NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID STATE BY 25/03Z...EXPECT BKN CI CEILINGS TO TRANSITION TO STRATUS VFR CEILINGS BY 25/09Z. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT FOR LIGHT SNOW SHWRS CSV FROM 25/12Z-25/18Z...BUT AM INITIALLY EXPECTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND ICING POTENTIAL MINIMAL. TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SFC GUSTS 20-25KTS 25/09Z-25/18Z. JUST ABOVE SFC...MODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINUANCE OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH POTENTIAL LLWS TO 60KTS 25/10Z-25/18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/ AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE... LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CEILINGS IMPACT KCKV TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KCKV. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/ DISCUSSION... WILL LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 12Z. SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS FARTHER SOUTH OF TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS DIVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AROUND 850 MBARS ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH WINDS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TURN WESTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA. LATEST RUC SOUNDING SHOWING VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. I/R SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS FIBRATUS SCOOTING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH 160 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPING AM EXPECTING TEMPS TONIGHT TO ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS PRESENTS KNOWN HERE IN THE MID STATE AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CONTINUING EAST OF INTERSTATE 24 SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A HALF INCH ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND SATURDAY MORNING. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ITS NOT AS COLD BEHIND THIS CLIPPER AS PREVIOUS CLIPPERS. SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AROUND 50 MANY AREAS WITH MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE PLATEAU. A STRONGER CLIPPER COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE WORK WEEK LOOKS COLD AND SOMEWHAT A REPEAT OF WHAT WE JUST HAD. LOOKING FARTHER OUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE WHERE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET BECOMES DOMINATE. THIS BEGINS TO SHOW UP ON THE EURO BY THE 31ST OF JANUARY AND CONTINUES PAST GROUNDHOG DAY. LETS HOPE ITS A CLOUDY DAY WHEN HE EMERGES FROM HIS BURROW. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DANGEROUS...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING...WIND CHILLS OF -35 TO -45 EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THIS EVENING BRINING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW 1.5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIFTING AND POSSIBLY BLOWING SNOW THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SLICK STRETCHES ON AREA ROADS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY THIS EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A POTENT SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS ZONE OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE FLUFFY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH DRIFTING SNOW. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THEN SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO -30 TO -45. THE COMBINATION OF THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER WIND PRONE AREAS COULD CREATE A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION IF YOU WERE TO BECOME STRANDED OUTDOORS. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE AT RECORD LOW VALUES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE -20 TO -25 RANGE. WIND CHILL VALUES OF -35 TO -45 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO TEENS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AND IT WILL PRODUCE A 4 TO 5 HOUR BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AS IT COMES THROUGH. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THE SNOW WITH THE 24.14Z HRRR SHOWING IT STARTING AT BOTH TAF SITES AROUND 22Z WHILE THE 24.12Z NAM DOES NOT BRING IT IN UNTIL 00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND HAVE STAYED WITH THAT TIMING OF 23Z. EXPECT TO SEE THE VISIBILITY GO DOWN TO IFR IN THE SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE SNOW ENDS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AT KRST WITH MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN ENOUGH FOR THE BLOWING SNOW TO END AT KRST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. && .CLIMATE...MONDAY ISSUED AT 325 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BETWEEN -5 AND -15 ON MONDAY...SEVERAL RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET OR TIED. MANY OF THESE RECORDS WERE SET IN EITHER 1902 OR 1972. BELOW ARE THE RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THAT DAY. AUSTIN MN -2 IN 1950 CHARLES CITY IA -5 IN 1904 DECORAH IA -4 IN 1902 LA CROSSE WI -4 IN 1902 MEDFORD WI -8 IN 1902 NEILLSVILLE WI -10 IN 1902 PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI -1 IN 1904 RICHLAND CENTER WI 2 IN 1972 ROCHESTER MN -5 IN 1966 SPARTA WI -1 IN 1972 THEILMAN MN -8 IN 1972 WINONA MN -9 IN 1972 && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WIZ061. MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MNZ086-087-094-095. IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...04 CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1110 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING...PER LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS RESULTING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY FROM THE I-94 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...A BIT STRONGER...DROPS IN TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW. OVERALL...1 TO 2 INCHES LOOKS LIKELY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS COMING THIS EVENING. BLUSTERY WINDS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER...SOME DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY...SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS STORM...WATCHES...WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES. PART 1 NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY LEADING IT IN. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K SFCS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN...WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER BULLS-EYEING THE AREA AT 12Z. HEFTY THERMODYNAMICS...BUT QUICK MOVING. THE STORM/S SFC WARM FRONT MOVES IN FIRST...ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUN...WITH A SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE INDICATED VIA SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST RUNNING X-SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS EAST INTO MICH. SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD COME WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS/QG CONVERGENCE FROM 850-500 MB/AND THE LEADING PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THE SNOW WILL MOVE IN BY LATE SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SNOW BAND SHIFTING EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE...SOUNDINGS AND X- SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT A WINTRY MIX WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POTENTIALITY COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH MORE WARMING AND A SHALLOWER CLOUD DEPTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SUGGESTS A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD AND POSSIBLY SOME MELTING...THUS BRINGING LIQUID/SLEET INTO THE PICTURE. THAT SAID...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH/ICE IN CLOUD THAT IT WOULD BE SNOW. STILL...ANOTHER ELEMENT TO WHAT IS GOING TO BE SOME VERY UNPLEASANT DAYS. AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE...WITH THE QUICK NATURE OF THIS STORM HOLDING AMOUNTS DOWN. SOME ICING COULD ALSO RESULT...SHOULD FREEZING PCPN/SLEET BE REALIZED. PART 2 WINDS ARE GOING TO INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON...STAYING STRONG INTO THE NIGHT. THE NAM IS VERY STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...MIXING DOWN AS MUCH AS 47 KTS AT KRST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS ABOUT 10 KTS LESS. EITHER SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA...ALONG WITH RIDGE-TOPS...COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...VSBYS 1/2 MILE OR LESS WITH LOTS OF BLOWING ACROSS ROADWAYS. PART 3 BRUTAL...POTENTIALLY DEADLY COLD MOVES IN FOR MON/TUE POST THIS SUNDAY STORM. ECMWF 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES FALL TO -2.5 BY 12 MON...WITH -28C AT 850 MB DEPICTED IN THE GFS. HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE REGION HOLDS UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHILE A SFC HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE PLAINS. CLOUDS OBVIOUSLY ADD AN INSULATION FACTOR...WHILE CLEAR SKIES WOULD GIVE AN ADDITIONAL DROP IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...LOWS IN THE -20S ARE PROBABLE TUE...WITH MINUS TEENS MON/WED. HIGHS AREN/T LIKELY TO CRACK ZERO UNTIL WED. IN FACT...THE WHOLE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WILL BE SUB ZERO. ADD IN WINDS...AND WIND CHILLS -40 OR COLDER ARE LIKELY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. THIS COLD GOES FROM DANGEROUS TO DEADLY IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. SOMEWHAT QUIET FOR SNOW CHANCES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OR WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE WITH HOW TO HANDLE A SHORTWAVE THAT BOTH SUGGEST WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THU. THE GFS FAVORS KEEPING ITS INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE EC RIDES ITS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. DON/T HAVE A PREFERRED SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS THIS GO AROUND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AND IT WILL PRODUCE A 4 TO 5 HOUR BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AS IT COMES THROUGH. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THE SNOW WITH THE 24.14Z HRRR SHOWING IT STARTING AT BOTH TAF SITES AROUND 22Z WHILE THE 24.12Z NAM DOES NOT BRING IT IN UNTIL 00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND HAVE STAYED WITH THAT TIMING OF 23Z. EXPECT TO SEE THE VISIBILITY GO DOWN TO IFR IN THE SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE SNOW ENDS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AT KRST WITH MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN ENOUGH FOR THE BLOWING SNOW TO END AT KRST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...04