Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/23/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1017 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...CURRENT FORECASTS STILL ON TRACK. WINDS QUITE GUSTY
ALONG AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...WITH CURRENT GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.
WESTERLY WINDS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. 1500 M
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM GRAND JUNCTION TO DENVER NOW AT 10.59 MB.
LATEST RAP SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW PEAKING
AT 40 KTS AROUND 20Z THEN STEADILY DECREASING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL HELP INCREASE WINDS ACROSS REST OF
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS STILL LOOKING REASONABLE. WESTERLY
WINDS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. WEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 21Z...AS NORTHWEST WINDS MIX TO
THE SURFACE. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KDEN AND KAPA
THROUGH 22Z. WINDS TO THEN TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE AFTER 00Z. VFR
TO PREVAIL WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THROUGH 2PM...THEN DECREASE.
HUMIDITY READINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT TO BETWEEN 14 AND 18%. FIRE
DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS LOGAN...SEDGWICK...PHILLIPS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH DOWNWARD
MOTION FROM SUBSIDENCE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BRING A WARM AND BREEZY DAY TODAY TO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. WARM ADVECTION AND THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
WINDIEST AREAS WILL BE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE STATE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND NOON OR JUST
AFTER THEN DECREASE.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND SLIGHTLY LESS WINDY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN TO THE 20S OVER THE PLAINS WITH
READINGS CLOSER TO 30 NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE MILDER
THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL SURROUND CHANCE OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COLORADO PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A RELATIVELY EARLY HIGH WITH READINGS
THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE MOVES DOWN THE SPINE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS ADVERTISED TO BRING WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
LIFT ACROSS COLORADO FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
BE WEAK BUT UP TO NEAR 10K FEET. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO...NOT TO MENTION SOME JET DYNAMICS...SHOULD LEAD TO THE
PRODUCTION OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY A FEW MODERATE
BANDS DEPENDING HOW UPPER JET PATTERN EVOLVES. THIS STILL LOOKS
LIKE A GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW EVENT OVERALL WITH 1-3 INCH TYPE
SNOWFALLS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR...AND MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE COMING IN A LITTLE EARLIER
SO ALSO SPED UP THE TIMING A FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE COULD BE RATHER ICY CONSIDERING WARM PAVEMENT TEMPS OF
LATE AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES.
MUCH DRIER WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING
OCCUR. WARMING TREND WILL RESUME FRIDAY WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE ARE STILL NOT IMMUNE FROM WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
NEXT THREAT OF ANY WEATHER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY WHEN
ECMWF ADVERTISES ANOTHER STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. OVERALL LIKED THE ECMWF HANDLING OF THIS POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVE GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOME
SIGNS THIS PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN COULD FINALLY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY THE 1ST WEEK OF FEBRUARY...AND IT WILL NEED TO IF WE
WANT TO KEEP OUR MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK CLOSE TO NORMAL.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DRAINAGE WINDS AT DENVER AREA AIRPORT TERMINALS.
KDEN IS CURRENTLY STRONGER...BUT GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH
MID-MORNING...THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 6-12KTS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON THEN A
RETURN TO DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SURFACING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS TODAY SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH...PEAKING BETWEEN 11AM AND 2PM BEFORE
DECREASING. WITH HUMIDITIES REDUCING TO 14-18%...THE FIRE DANGER
IS ELEVATED...MAINLY FOR LOGAN...SEDGWICK...PHILLIPS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAY HIT CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE HOURS
BUT WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
927 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY OVER THE FORECAST REGION
THIS EVENING...AND SHOULDN`T SEE ANY PASSING BY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. SO NICE NIGHT TO GET IN SOME STAR GAZING. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALSO DECOUPLED FROM THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT... SO SFC WINDS HAVE EASED UP...ESPLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE WINDS IN PARTS OF LOGAN AND
PHILLIPS COUNTIES GUSTED 40-50 MPH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL ASSUME THEIR TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS. WHEREAS MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ON THE FRONT RANGE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE ON
EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN LARIMER COUNTY AND 30-40 MPH
GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER COUNTY TOWARDS MORNING. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TIGHT CROSS MOUNTAIN PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND THE WARMING AT THE BASE OF
THE FOOTHILLS WILL ENHANCE THIS GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE
1ST AND 2ND PERIODS. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE BUMPED UP LATE NIGHT
WIND SPEEDS UP IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS AT DENVER AREA AIRPORT TERMINALS GENERALLY
UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
6-12KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...WINDS STILL GUSTY ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER...THOUGH
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING. EARLIER A GUST TO 55 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT HOLYOKE AT 155 PM. THERE WAS ALSO SOME BLOWING DUST
IN THE AREA. FURTHER WEST...WINDS MUCH WEAKER. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GRADIENT WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z WITH
WINDS DECREASING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BEHIND EXITING UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST RAP SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW
INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KTS AT MOUNTAIN TOP. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
OVERHEAD WILL HELP INCREASE DOWNWARD MOTION AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH A POSSIBILITY. CLEARING SKIES
AND LESS WIND WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20S...EXCEPT TEENS LOW LYING
AREAS AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO COLORADO.
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP GUSTY
WINDS GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG FOOTHILLS. THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AND FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS. GRADIENT MUCH WEAKER THAT TODAY...SO GUSTS WON`T BE AS
STRONG. WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON WED IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK UPPER LVL TROUGH. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NERN
CO BY WED AFTN WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN
YESTERDAY. THUS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER NERN CO. FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING WEST OF THE AREA AS ONLY SOME WK MID
LVL QG ASCENT IS SHOWN. IN ADDITION AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW
LVL UPSLOPE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. CURRENT CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN CO. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE MUCH
COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.
BY THU AFTN MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN CO WITH NO LOW
LVL UPSLOPE AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS EAST AND SE OF THE
AREA. THUS SNOW CHANCES SHOULD END BY MIDDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI RATHER DRY NNW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SO
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND
WITH READINGS IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO.
FOR THE WEEKEND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NWLY WITH NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NEAR THE
WY...NE BORDER. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL
ACROSS NERN CO BASED ON LATEST DATA.
AVIATION...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK SURGE
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO DECREASE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY
02Z. DRAINAGE FLOW TO THEN DEVELOP WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KDEN
AND KAPA AND WESTERLY AT KBJC. SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KBJC OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 8 KTS. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER/D_L
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...BAKER/D_L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
532 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WHILE
AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REACH THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY AS
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY.
YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB. IN TERMS
OF THE FGEN BANDING, THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE BANDING BETTER THAN
THE HI RES NMM OR ARW. IMPRESSIVE FGEN FORCING THAT MAXIMIZED AT
18Z IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. THE BAND THAT
PRODUCED 2-3 INCH RATES ALONG THE 195 CORRIDOR HAS WEAKENED. THIS
HAS PERMITTED HEAVIER SNOW TO ONCE AGAIN EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD.
MEANWHILE LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAVE
AVOIDED THE HEAVIER SNOW SO FAR.
THE EVOLUTION INTO THIS EVENING IS FOR THE FGEN FORCING INDUCED
SNOW TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH THE DPVA
INDUCED SNOW CLIPPING THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA THE HARDEST. THE
CROSS HAIRS OF OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH ARE MAXIMIZING NOW FROM I95
NORTHWARD (EXCEPT POCONOS) AND EXIT THOSE REGIONS BY 00Z. SO WHILE
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN RANGE (EXCEPT
ALONG I95 WHERE WE ARE NOW TOWARD THE HIGH END OF THE 10-14"
GRAPHIC), ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY 00Z.
WITH THE TROF YET TO PASS UNTIL 12Z, THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD TAKE ITS TIME BEFORE IT ENDS. THIS
IS NOT COINCIDING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW (AS
BANDING IS MAINLY INLAND WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE OCCURRING) SO NO
BLIZZARD RELATED HEADLINES. REGARDLESS CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. PLEASE DO NOT DRIVE IF YOU DO
NOT HAVE TO.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME HIER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE POCONOS MIGHT TOUCH WARNING CRITERIA. COVERAGE
AND CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR AN UPGRADE. MIN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
STAT GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... A VERY
COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER DAY IN WHICH MAX TEMPS WILL FAIL
TO REACH THE 20 DEGREE MARK THIS JANUARY. ANY SMALL COMFORT WILL
BE THAT THE DAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHOULD BE
DECREASING AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAX TEMPS ARE
BELOW STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF OUR FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS MOSTLY QUIET, BUT COLD THIS
TIME AROUND. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW COVER
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THEN BY THU, A WK ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE
SYS WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION AND CUD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT
OVERALL QPF IS VERY LIGHT AND THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHICH AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP. THE GFS IS MORE
FOCUSED N AND W. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA.
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYS, A VAST AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SLIDE SEWD AND KEEP THINGS DRY THU NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT.
THEN, BY SAT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN SERN CAN WILL MOVE EWD. ITS
ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL MOVE EWD AND CROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E
DURG THE SECOND HALF OF SAT. THIS SYS COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
SNOW, THOUGH AGAIN ALL QPF IS LIGHT.
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEN, ANOTHER WK SYS WILL MOVE ACRS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AGAIN, THE MDLS DIFFER
IN THE EXACT DETAILS, WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A MORE NRN TRACK AND
AFFECTING MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. THE GFS HAS A MORE
SRN TRACK AND IMPACTS MORE OF THE AREA. AGAIN OVERALL QPF IS LIGHT
ATTM, BUT TEMPS ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH
THIS EVENT AS WELL.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PD LOOKS TO BE SAT, WHERE TEMPS SHOULD
RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AND THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS FOLKS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE REST OF THE PD, TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
JUST THINK, MARCH IS ABOUT A MONTH AWAY BY THE END OF THE PD....
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3
MILES WITH PERIODS OF 1/4-1/2 MILE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS.
WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN
THE 25 TO NEAR 30 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING
SNOW TO OCCUR AND WILL DECREASE VISIBILITIES EVEN AFTER THE SNOW
HAS CEASED FALLING. CEILINGS ARE VARIED ACROSS THE REGION BUT ARE
MOSTLY AROUND 500 TO 1200 FEET. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THE SNOW WILL END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WE
SHOULD START TO MARKED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL
RISE BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY BUT WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
STILL IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WITH THE WINDS WHIPPING AROUND
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE SNOW BE BLOWN ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS AND
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE WINDS WILL
START TO SUBSIDE AND LOSE THE GUSTINESS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THU...VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWER CONDITIONS IF SNOW
SHOWERS OCCUR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN LOWER CONDS PSBL AS CDFNT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST BRINGING THE CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25
KT. MDT CONFIDENCE.
SUN...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES ARE UNDERWAY. WE PEAKED WIND GUSTS AT 45 KNOTS. THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR FREEZING SPRAY WILL INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD START DECREASING DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY BE A BIT TOO LONG WITH THE GALE WARNING
ON DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME SUB
ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY HAVE AN SCA FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
PD.
THU-FRI...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE WATERS AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT ON SAT.
SEAS WILL TO BUILD SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ008>010-
012>027.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WHILE
AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN REACH
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY AS ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. YET
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO ANY OF THE HEADLINES.
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB. IN TERMS OF
THE FGEN BANDING, THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE BANDING BETTER THAN THE
HI RES NMM OR ARW. IMPRESSIVE FGEN FORCING THAT MAXIMIZED AT 18Z IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. THE BAND THAT PRODUCED 2-3
INCH RATES ALONG THE 195 CORRIDOR HAS WEAKENED. THIS HAS PERMITTED
HEAVIER SNOW TO ONCE AGAIN EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. MEANWHILE LOCATIONS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAVE AVOIDED THE HEAVIER SNOW SO
FAR AND EVEN SOME RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SUSSEX COUNTY DE.
THE EVOLUTION INTO THIS EVENING IS FOR THE FGEN FORCING INDUCED SNOW
TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH THE DPVA INDUCED SNOW
CLIPPING THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA THE HARDEST. THE CROSS
HAIRS OF OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH ARE MAXIMIZING NOW FROM I95
NORTHWARD (EXCEPT POCONOS) AND EXIT THOSE REGIONS BY 00Z. SO
WHILE THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN RANGE (EXCEPT
ALONG I95 WHERE WE ARE NOW TOWARD THE HIGH END OF THE 10-14"
GRAPHIC), ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY 00Z.
WITH THE TROF YET TO PASS UNTIL 12Z, THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD TAKE ITS TIME BEFORE IT ENDS. THIS IS
NOT COINCIDING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW (AS
BANDING IS MAINLY INLAND WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE OCCURRING) SO NO
BLIZZARD RELATED HEADLINES. REGARDLESS CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. PLEASE DO NOT DRIVE IF YOU DO
NOT HAVE TO.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME HIER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE POCONOS MIGHT TOUCH WARNING CRITERIA. COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR AN UPGRADE. MIN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW STAT
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER DAY IN WHICH MAX TEMPS WILL
FAIL TO REACH THE 20 DEGREE MARK THIS JANUARY. ANY SMALL COMFORT
WILL BE THAT THE DAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHOULD BE
DECREASING AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAX TEMPS ARE
BELOW STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF OUR FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS MOSTLY QUIET, BUT COLD THIS
TIME AROUND. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW COVER
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THEN BY THU, A WK ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE
SYS WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION AND CUD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT
OVERALL QPF IS VERY LIGHT AND THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHICH AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP. THE GFS IS MORE
FOCUSED N AND W. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA.
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYS, A VAST AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SLIDE SEWD AND KEEP THINGS DRY THU NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT.
THEN, BY SAT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN SERN CAN WILL MOVE EWD. ITS
ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL MOVE EWD AND CROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E
DURG THE SECOND HALF OF SAT. THIS SYS COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
SNOW, THOUGH AGAIN ALL QPF IS LIGHT.
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEN, ANOTHER WK SYS WILL MOVE ACRS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AGAIN, THE MDLS DIFFER
IN THE EXACT DETAILS, WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A MORE NRN TRACK AND
AFFECTING MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. THE GFS HAS A MORE
SRN TRACK AND IMPACTS MORE OF THE AREA. AGAIN OVERALL QPF IS LIGHT
ATTM, BUT TEMPS ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH
THIS EVENT AS WELL.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PD LOOKS TO BE SAT, WHERE TEMPS SHOULD RISE
ABOVE FREEZING, AND THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS FOLKS. IT APPEARS THAT
THE REST OF THE PD, TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
JUST THINK, MARCH IS ABOUT A MONTH AWAY BY THE END OF THE PD....
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3
MILES WITH PERIODS OF 1/4-1/2 MILE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS. WINDS
ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO
NEAR 30 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW TO OCCUR
AND WILL DECREASE VISIBILITIES EVEN AFTER THE SNOW HAS CEASED
FALLING. CEILINGS ARE VARIED ACROSS THE REGION BUT ARE MOSTLY AROUND
500 TO 1200 FEET. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THE SNOW WILL END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WE
SHOULD START TO MARKED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL
RISE BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY BUT WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS STILL
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WITH THE WINDS WHIPPING AROUND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE SNOW BE BLOWN ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS AND THIS MAY
CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE WINDS WILL START TO
SUBSIDE AND LOSE THE GUSTINESS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THU...VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWER CONDITIONS IF SNOW
SHOWERS OCCUR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN LOWER CONDS PSBL AS CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST BRINGING THE CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KT.
MDT CONFIDENCE.
SUN...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGE TO MARINE HEADLINES. GALES ARE UNDERWAY. WE PEAKED WIND
GUSTS AT 45 KNOTS. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR FREEZING SPRAY WILL INCREASE
AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD START
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY BE A BIT TOO LONG
WITH THE GALE WARNING ON DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME SUB
ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY HAVE AN SCA FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE PD.
THU-FRI...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE WATERS AND SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT ON SAT. SEAS
WILL TO BUILD SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ008>010-
012>027.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN REACH THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SATURDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
OUR REGION LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN START BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. THE LATEST 06Z GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS ARE KEYING ON THE MAX SNOWFALL
AXIS ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR. LOCATION REMAINS THE LONGEST IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AREA (HIGHER RATIOS) AS WELL AS THE AXIS OF
INCREASING FGEN FORCING. IF ANYTHING THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
HARDER FRONT END HIT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHTER RATES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT.
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER, BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO RAMP UP.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE MORNING RUSH LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY UNAFFECTED...
THE BAD NEWS IS THE EVENING RUSH WON`T BE SO LUCKY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING, THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE BROAD EAST COAST TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA, IT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING, GENERALLY AFTER OR AT THE
TAIL END OF THE MORNING RUSH, AS MOISTURE/LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE,
THEN SPREAD EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, STRONG 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENIC FORCING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS A SOLID PORTION OF
THE AREA, INCREASING OMEGAS THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED THE
HEAVIEST CORRIDOR OF SNOW NORTHWEST AGAIN, AND HAS INCREASE AMOUNTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE, WE HAVE PUSHED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING NORTHWESTWARD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES. SO EVERYONE IS IN
THE WARNING EXCEPT CARBON/MONROE, PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX, NEW
JERSEY. AS OF NOW, THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL DELMARVA WHERE 8-10 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE BANDING OCCURS. HOWEVER, EITHER SIDE OF THIS
SWATH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH 6-8
INCHES POSSIBLE. CARBON/MONROE, PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX, NEW JERSEY
MAY MISS OUT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AS THE HEAVY BANDS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL THE SNOW MOVES OUT OF THESE AREAS.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. ALONG WITH THE SNOWFALL, BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD GET
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THESE CONDITIONS OCCURRING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS FRONTOGENIC FORCING AND OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE WILL BE MAXED. HOWEVER, AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING AND TOWARD
THE THE MIDNIGHT HOUR, THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING
OVERHEAD, ALLOWING THE FORCING TO MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW SNOWFALL TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE LONGEST TO HOLD ON TO THE SNOWFALL, BUT
EVERYONE SHOULD BE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THE CONCERN THEN TURNS TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. NOT ONLY WILL THERE CONTINUE TO BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, WIND CHILL WILL BECOME QUITE LOW ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -15 FOR MOST PLACES, TO EVEN LOW -20S
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE WE HAVE ALSO
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVERYWHERE. CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES
MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALL THE FUN IS IN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THE
LONGTERM STARTS OFF WITH THE SLOPPY LEFTOVERS FROM THE INTENSIFYING
COASTAL LOW. WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WE KEEP CHANCES ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT ON LAND. OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STIFF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...DOESN`T HAVE TO BE ACTIVELY SNOWING FOR
BLOWING SNOW. THE FRESH SNOWCOVER AND CAA WON`T ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO GET OUT OF TEENS TOMORROW. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY,
THOUGH NOT TOTALLY SURE WE COMPLETELY LOSE THEM, EITHER WAY SINGLE
DIGITS ARE EXPECTED...TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE COLDER MAVMOS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY
THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL ONLY HAVE SO MUCH TIME
TO GATHER SOME OFF THE LAKES, IF THEY ARE NOT ICED OVER BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT WITH MORE OF A WEST FLOW BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE/FREEZING.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES PAST DAY 4 WITH TODAYS SYSTEM BARRELING
DOWN ON US.
THEN WE GO DOWNWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SUB 500DM
1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST AS THE THERMAL TROF MOVES
THROUGH. MIN TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO THE COLDER MEX MOS VALUES AND MAY
NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. RECORD LOWS OTHER THAN GED (6 IN 1987) ARE AROUND
ZERO OR BELOW.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. THIS MODERATION IS BECOMING MORE MUTED. SCATTERED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEN COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY. TIMING ISSUES
WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR MONDAY. FOR NOW WE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE
IN KEEPING IT DRY. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE A DOWNTURN
TO MVFR AND IFR/LIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW IS ON THE WAY,
AND WILL BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING, AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS, IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR
CONDITIONS TO BECOME IFR. WE EXPECT THE SNOW TO BEGIN IN THE 13Z-15Z
TIME PERIOD, AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND INCREASE FROM THERE. WE
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, HENCE THE 1/2 TO 1/4 SM VSBYS. ALSO, WINDS WILL
BECOME QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY, SO THERE WILL BE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, EVEN AFTER THE SNOWFALL ENDS. THEREFOR WE
HAVE KEPT VSBYS LOWER THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
20-25 KT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEMS ON
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWER CONDITIONS IF
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWER CONDITIONS IF
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS AND STRENGTHENS OFF THE
COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS EXPECTED, WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD
AIR TEMPERATURES, FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROBLEM. WE
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY STARTING AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
WARNING AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY GOES SAME TIME PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP OFF THEREAFTER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROPPING TO SUB-ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS LOOK TO BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING, THE 22ND, LOOK MOSTLY OUT OF
REACH, THEY ARE HISTORICALLY LOW.
IF PHILADELPHIA HAS 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW, IT WILL BE THE THIRD
EVENT OF THIS WINTER THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. THIS HAS NEVER
OCCURRED BEFORE FEBRUARY DATING BACK TO 1884. THERE HAS NEVER BEEN
A FOURTH.
"FLUFF FACTORS": OF THE FIFTY-SIX SIX INCH OR GREATER EVENTS IN
PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1950, ONLY SIX HAVE OCCURRED WITH SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT RATIOS OF GREATER THAN 15:1. HIGHER RATIOS ARE NOT JUST
A FUNCTION OF THE AIR MASS BEING COLDER, ALTHOUGH IT OBVIOUSLY
DOESNT HURT. THE AMOUNT OF TIME SPENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA, THE
AMOUNT OF BOTH IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA AND NEAR THE SURFACE WIND,
HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW ACCUMULATES (SLOW AND STEADY VS MOSTLY IN
FOUR HOURS) ALL ARE AS MUCH FACTORS AS THE TEMPERATURES. THE
JANUARY 2ND-3RD EVENT, THE LOWEST SNOW TO WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS
IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE IN MONROE, CARBON AND SUSSEX COUNTIES NJ
AT ABOUT 10:1 EVEN THOUGH THEY AVERAGE SIX INCHES AND THEY WERE IN
THE TEENS WHEN IT WAS SNOWING. THE REASON WAS THE OMEGA AND SNOW
GROWTH AREA NEVER COINCIDED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ008>010-
012>027.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
849 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS
OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. AS A GENERAL RULE...VISIBILITIES HAVE
REMAINED ABOVE 1/4 MILE ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
REPORTED OR OBSERVED PER WEBCAMS. NOT SURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER
THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. A VERY
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW /OR LIGHT W-NW WINDS/ WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WOULD BE THE BEST
CANDIDATES FOR AN ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW BUT WILL
MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY. WE ARE ALSO GETTING REPORTS AND
SEEING SNOW FLURRIES ON A COUPLE OF WEBCAMS IN BOISE...WITH ONE
REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW IN TWIN FALLS EARLIER THIS EVENING. WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE
TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST NAM MODEL STILL SHOWS MUCH DRIER E-SE FLOW MOVING IN JUST
ABOVE THE INVERSION ON THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HELP ERODE
THE STRATUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AT LEAST FROM MOUNTAIN HOME
EAST...BUT THE CLEARING COULD MAKE IT TO BOISE. STILL EXPECTING
THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY. DENSE FOG ALREADY OCCURRING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY...INCLUDING KJER. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MORE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT...BUT IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 15 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.
&&
.AIR STAGNATION...STAGNANT PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STRATUS BELOW AROUND 5000
FT MSL IS BEING OVERRIDDEN BY PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS SW
IDAHO...WHICH IS LIMITING SOLAR COMPONENT FAVORABLE FOR ERODING
THE PESKY BLEAK GRAY LAYER OVER SW IDAHO. NORTH TO EAST WINDS
ALOFT AND A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRATUS...PROBABLY FROM BOISE TO PAYETTE
TO BAKER CITY...FOR A FEW HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
KEEP UPSLOPE STRATUS GOING ACROSS THE NW MAGIC VALLEY AS THE SOUTH
FRINGE OF THE STRATUS ERODES SOUTH OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OPTIMISTIC ON GETTING RID
OF THE STRATUS ABOVE 2500-3000 FT MSL AND INVERSION REFORMS ANYWAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SO OTHER THAN MINOR SLOSHING AROUND WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS THE STRATUS LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BELOW 3500-5000
FT MSL IN THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES
TO THE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BLOCKING
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
DEEP ARCTIC LOWS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. CONTINUED FOG AND STRATUS IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND MAGIC VALLEYS AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ABOVE 5K FEET
MSL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN NEXT
WEEK AFTER TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO OUR AREA
AND BETTER MIXING POSSIBLE.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....MT
AIR STAGNATION...VM
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1053 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1053 AM CST
INTENSE MID LAKE CONVERGENCE LES BAND PERSISTING DOWN THE LENGTH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING ONLY SLOWLY MIGRATING EASTWARD AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SINGLE CONVERGENT LES
BAND THE TYPE OF WHICH MADE BUFFALO NY FAMOUS FOR HEAVY SNOW IS MUCH
RARER FOR CHICAGO. HRRR AND LOCAL WORKSTATION WRF SHOWING
CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY RELAXING AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOWS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
UPSTREAM AIRMASS ALSO DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO HELP TO TREND SNOW TO BECOME LESS INTENSE.
BUT NOT BEFORE THE DAMAGE IS DONE... AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNING
FOR LAKE AND ADVISORY FOR PORTER EACH 2 HOURS LONGER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS SLOWER EVOLUTION. EVEN WITH EXTENDING THE HEADLINES BELIEVE
FINAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL ON TARGET GIVEN TRANSITORY NATURE
OF THE NARROW BAND. SOME OSCILLATING EXPECTED LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE OVERALL TREND WILL BE EASTWARD. (OSCILLATING
CURRENTLY DUE TO SECONDARY CONVERGENCE BAND UPSTREAM AHEAD OF
RIDGING/TIGHTENING GRADIENT.) BUT NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH FOR THOSE
UNDERNEATH AS NARROW BUT INTENSE BLINDING SNOW WITH TRAVEL CAMS
AND GROUND TRUTH INDICATING NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. DEBATED
WARNING FOR PORTER BUT GIVEN LES SNOWFALL ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS THUS FAR... BELIEVE TRANSITORY NATURE COMBINED WITH SNOW
RATES COMING DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON (BUT STILL INCH TO INCH
AND A HALF PER HOUR) SHOULD KEEP SNOW TOTALS 6 INCHES OR LESS MOST
LOCATIONS. EVEN GIVEN SUCH... FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT
IN NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL... AND
WILL HIGHLIGHT SUCH IN STATEMENTS AND NOWCASTS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
330 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE TRANSIENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD AID IN PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SET THE ORIENTATION OVER DOWNTOWN CHICAGO EARLY...THEN PUSH EAST
ACROSS LAKE COUNTY IN...INTO PORTER COUNTY IN. LCL HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN HANDLING THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE LES BAND
RELATIVELY WELL...HOWEVER THE DRIVING FEATURE KEEPING THE BAND
LOCATED FURTHER WEST HAS BEEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STEERING WINDS TO
ULTIMATELY CONTROL THE BAND IN PUSHING IT EAST THIS MORNING.
EARLY THIS MORNING DRY AIR CONTINUED TO POUR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WAS IMPRESSIVE TO WATCH THE RADAR RETURNS QUICKLY ERODE.
DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...AND ARE EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO BE BELOW
ZERO. TEMPS ARE ALSO QUICKLY FALLING...AND EXPECT PLACES ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LASALLE TO EVANSTON LINE TO BE BELOW ZERO JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. UNFORTUNATELY WITH A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE ISALLOBARIC PRES CHG OVER THE REGION
IS POISED TO KEEP GUSTY WINDS THRU THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GIVEN SLR ARND 25:1 TO 30:1...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL EASILY
BLOW SNOW AROUND. THUS HAVE ADDED IN A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW FOR
THIS MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WILL BE ON DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
AGAIN THE PRIME AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
LASALLE TO EVANSTON WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL TO ARND -20
TO -25 DEG F THRU MID-MORNING. EXPECT AN ADDTL 2-4" OF SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF COOK COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY. FOR PORTER COUNTY VALUES
SHOULD LIKELY FALL WITHIN A 3-5" WITH A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS
RECEIVING UP TO 6" BEFORE THE LAKE BAND DISSIPATES.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY...WHICH WILL BE VERY DECEIVING GIVEN
THE STRONG COLD AIR THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO TODAY...WITH AN ARCTIC THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD OF -15 TO
-19 DEG C.
SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE...SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER
RIDING ON IT`S HEELS WILL BE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER. WINDS WILL BE
BACKING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL LINGER FOR THE EARLY EVENING...THAT
LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS NEXT CLIPPER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL ARND
MIDNIGHT. SO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW...BUT WITH THE CONFIDENCE IN
LGT SNOW DEVELOPING...HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AFT MIDNIGHT TO HIGH CHC.
ALONG THE IL/WISC STATELINE HAVE NUDGED TO LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD EASILY RADIATE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...WHILE THE LOCAL IN HOUSE WRF IS INDICATING A FEW POCKETS OF
TEMPS DIPPING TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THIS APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER...THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED TEMPS FROM GETTING THAT COLD. HOWEVER
IF WINDS CAN REMAIN LGT...AND SFC RIDGE LINGER OVERHEAD...A FEW
AREAS IN OUR WESTERN CWFA COULD DIP TO ARND -10 TO -12 DEG F. WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING JUST BELOW WIND CHILL CRITERIA
OR ARND -15 TO -19 DEG F. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEW HEADLINES FOR
TONIGHT...BUT COULD SEE THE NEED FOR A FEW AREAS DEPENDING ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINDS FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN LAKE SNOW TIMING/SNOWFALL TOTALS...MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH THE CLIPPER SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
DEPARTURE OF THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...COUPLED WITH A
VERY POTENT SFC RIDGE POISED TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL
CANADA...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WED EVE/OVERNIGHT.
HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIP A LITTLE LONGER WED EVE BEFORE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE RETURNS AND ERODES THE LLVL MOISTURE. 500MB TROUGH AXIS
LAGS BEHIND THE MAIN VORT EARLY THUR...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF -18 TO
-22 DEG C AIR AT 850MB. THIS WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT BAND...HOWEVER THIS TIME AROUND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY TO PREVENT NORTHEAST IL FROM SEEING THE SNOW. THE
TRADITIONAL DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...PORTER COUNTY IN
APPEAR TO BE IN THE MORE FAVORED ZONE.
SFC RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THUR
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST. HOWEVER THE GRADIENT
MAINTAINS ITSELF...SO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SFC RIDGE WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
AIR PREVAILING THROUGH THUR NGT. TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND INTO THE
TEENS...HOWEVER THIS IS YET ANOTHER TEASE AS THE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
THUR WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. BOTH WED NGT AND THUR NGT APPEARS TO BE YET ANOTHER CANDIDATE
FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS...AS VALUES HOVER ARND -25 WED NGT.
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING THUR NGT WIND CHILL WARNING CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE CHALLENGE THUR NGT WILL BE BACKING WINDS TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND WARM AIR BEGINNING TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION
AS TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB AFT MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILL VALUES...MEDIUM/HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED
TO POINT TOWARDS NEARLY A +5 SIGMA 500MB RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
STRETCHING INTO EASTERN ALASKA/YUKON AREA. THE DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE 500MB VORT OVER HUDSON
BAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEND LOBES OF VORTICITY OR
CLIPPERS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
TOWARDS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LVL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE PATTERN TO BEGIN TO
MODERATE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THAT STRETCHES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
COULD PREVENT THE HUDSON BAY VORT FROM LIFTING NORTHEAST FOR VERY
LONG...AND COULD MAKE A RETURN.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS/VIS
LIKELY...OCNL IFR POSSIBLE.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
UNRESTRICTED CIG/VIS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT GYY. A LAKE EFFECT PLUME CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER
THE GYY TERMINAL AREA WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. WHILE THE TREND
FOR THE SNOW PLUME IS TO WEAKEN...GYY WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY SNOW
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION TOMORROW. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL DROP THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
AREA. THE CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING ANY HEAVIER SNOW NORTH OF THE
WISCONSIN BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BE WITHOUT
SOME IMPACT TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW...BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NRN IL/NWRN IN DURG THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHICH COULD DROP CIGS/VIS INTO IFR LEVELS DURG THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL START OUT THE DAY SWLY...BUT SHOULD
SHIFT TO NWLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
BLSN. CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS.
FRIDAY...STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH BLSN. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND MVFR CIGS DURING THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH BLSN. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND IFR.
SUNDAY....CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SEVERAL HEADLINE WORTHY WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE LAKE WILL
ABATE LATER TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TURN THE
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE TO
STRONG...AT LEAST UNTIL THE CLIPPER PASSES EAST OF THE LAKE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS OCCURS...A STRONG PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL SETUP SOME GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LAKE. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE HIGHEST
THREAT FOR GALES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF
THE LAKE...INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES INTO
THURSDAY. GALES OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR PROBABLE DURING THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG GALES WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS EVENT AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH END SOUTHWESTERLY
GALES OF 45 KT COULD OCCUR INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
STORM FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS EVENT...BUT I WILL HOLD OFF
ON PUTTING THAT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
IF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY GALES COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. SO IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...INZ001 UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ002 UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
503 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST WED JAN 22 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A 505DM CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG PV HEIGHT ANOMALY IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGRESSING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING SOUTH
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
REGARDING PRECIP...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS/SATELLITE IN LINE WITH INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST CHANCES 03-09Z PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. I DID BUMP POPS UP A LITTLE TO CATEGORICAL (80)
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/UPSLOPE
WIND/CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED. MODELS STILL FAVORING GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND GENERALLY ONE HALF IN OR LESS THE FURTHER EAST IN THE
CWA. MODELS HAVE SPED UP EXIT OF PRECIP IN THE NORTH WITH VERY
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTH WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ARCTIC AIR MASS ADVECTS SOUTH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OF -15F OR LESS ARE ADVERTISED TO ADVECT INTO THE
NORTHEAST...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. IN FACT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS MY CURRENT FORECAST LOW OF -7F COULD BE OPTIMISTIC FOR
MCCOOK. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
REGARDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE
WILL SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 F RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DESPITE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. I
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WC ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA AND THE FIRST TWO
TIER OF OUR NW KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THESE
CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE CWA COULD STILL END UP BEING CLOSE
DEPENDING ON WIND/SKY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDDAY (POSSIBLY
EARLIER)...WITH A DRY/COLD DAY EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS 20-25F WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS SLOW TO PULL EAST. AT LEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT (10 MPH OR LESS) WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND BRIEF
COOL DOWNS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND ONE FRONT...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HOWEVER...COULD NOT REACH A CONSENSUS FOR A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ATTM. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME SO NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THIS PERIOD WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN WINDS INCREASE TO BREEZY/WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT RH VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR
NOW. MONDAY WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
COLD SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
MUCH COLDER AIR AND A LITTLE SNOW IS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 03Z-08Z AT GLD
WHERE CONDITIONS FLIRT WITH MVFR AS THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW FALLING DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 12Z...A COLD HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVES INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS
WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-028-
029.
CO...NONE.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
208 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. THE CHANGES WERE MAINLY NEEDED FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PORTION WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG INTO THE AREA. IN THAT SAME AREA THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 513 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF THE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKING IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
NE/KS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE APPARENT BY DRY LAYER ON WV IMAGERY AND
PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SOUTHERN NE/NORTHERN KS...IS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA.
REGARDING CURRENT WIND ADVISORY...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE
CURRENTLY HITTING CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 39-40KT REPORTED. WHILE IT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD YET...UPSTREAM OBS ARE WELL OVER CRITERIA...AND AN
AREA OF BLOWING DUST ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE. WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME WITH
PEAK DAYTIME MIXING THAT I AM COMFORTABLE LETTING THE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AS IS. I DO HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT NEAR RFW
CRITERIA BEING MET...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
HIGHER TD VALUES ADVECTING FROM THE NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SO I
WILL MONITOR SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RH WILL PROBABLY HOLD STEADY OR
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LOCATIONS WHERE
WINDS GO CALM COULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS GOOD WAA ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING LEE TROUGH
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO MILD TEMPS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. RH VALUES RANGING FROM 13-18 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA COULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS ON
NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...AND I AM WONDERING WHETHER WE WILL
REALLY SEE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER...SO I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING
ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2014
WEEKEND WILL BE MILD AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ARCTIC FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
PROMINENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURE...AND WHILE THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
DOES SUFFER SOME WEAKENING DUE TO AN UPPER LOW THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THE RIDGE COMES BACK JUST AS
STRONG BY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST AT UPPER LEVELS
WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN LOWER LEVELS. POSSIBLE ARCTIC FRONT ON
MONDAY...BUT ABNORMALLY LARGE SPREAD LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/STRENGTH.
FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MIXES WITH
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO START WITH CLOUD
COVER POURING IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY..LIMITING SURFACE
HEATING. ANY SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND FROM THE WED-THURS SYSTEM
COULD ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT SO THAT MIGHT NOT BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY AND MILD. TOSS UP AS TO WHICH DAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 10 HIGHS NEAR 60 LOOK PRETTY
GOOD. CLOUD COVER COULD CUT THAT BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT GENERALLY A
MILD PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS
MIN RH VALUES REACH THE LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS BREEZY AT 15
TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
MONDAY..ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SIMILAR BUT NOT AS POTENT AS THE ONE
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. AS WITH THIS PAST SYSTEM THE ECMWF HAS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER WEST WITH COLDER TEMPS...BRINGING THE 850MB 0C
LINE WELL INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. GFS MEANWHILE SHOWS MONDAY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY AND KEEPS THE COLD AIR FARTHER EAST. ECMWF ALSO
PRODUCES SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH
WITH RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES HARD TO PIN DOWN LOCATION AND
PTYPES...BUT COULD SEE IT ENDING UP SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS SYSTEM
WITH A NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW BAND OF
LOW CLOUD COVER NEAR THE UPPER END OF MVFR HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK. THIS IS BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO STAY
TO THE EAST OF KMCK. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO
MAKE THE NEEDED CHANGES. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AT THAT TIME A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FROM LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1041 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. THE CHANGES WERE MAINLY NEEDED FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PORTION WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG INTO THE AREA. IN THAT SAME AREA THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 513 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF THE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKING IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
NE/KS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE APPARENT BY DRY LAYER ON WV IMAGERY AND
PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SOUTHERN NE/NORTHERN KS...IS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA.
REGARDING CURRENT WIND ADVISORY...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE
CURRENTLY HITTING CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 39-40KT REPORTED. WHILE IT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD YET...UPSTREAM OBS ARE WELL OVER CRITERIA...AND AN
AREA OF BLOWING DUST ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE. WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME WITH
PEAK DAYTIME MIXING THAT I AM COMFORTABLE LETTING THE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AS IS. I DO HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT NEAR RFW
CRITERIA BEING MET...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
HIGHER TD VALUES ADVECTING FROM THE NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SO I
WILL MONITOR SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RH WILL PROBABLY HOLD STEADY OR
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LOCATIONS WHERE
WINDS GO CALM COULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS GOOD WAA ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING LEE TROUGH
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO MILD TEMPS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. RH VALUES RANGING FROM 13-18 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA COULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS ON
NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...AND I AM WONDERING WHETHER WE WILL
REALLY SEE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER...SO I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING
ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. POPS WILL DECREASE WITH TIME FROM EAST
TO WEST WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH
THE LIFT THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE
BRIEF WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW, GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH. PLAN TO HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MOST AVAILABLE TO FLURRIES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. MOISTURE DRIES SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SO POPS WILL GO BACK TO NIL.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH
MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER
50S SUNDAY COOLING DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MONDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW BAND OF
LOW CLOUD COVER NEAR THE UPPER END OF MVFR HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK. THIS IS BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO STAY
TO THE EAST OF KMCK. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO
MAKE THE NEEDED CHANGES. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AT THAT TIME A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FROM LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
629 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A DEEP
TROUGH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAINTAIN FRIGID WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
630 PM EST UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...AND SKYCON. CHALLENGE THIS
TERM CONTINUES TO BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRES IS CONTINUING ITS TREK ACROSS THE
NW ATLC AND IS FCST TO PASS WELL S AND E OF NOVA SCOTIA. A
GLANCING BLOW OF SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL AFFECTING MAINLY THE COAST
AND EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR AND RUC HAD THIS SYSTEM HANDLED WELL W/PUSHING THE
SNOW INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE MARITIMES BY 00Z W/LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE, THE DECISION HERE WAS TO
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WASHINGTON COUNTY
COAST.
THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND WIND CHILLS. THE 12Z UA SHOWED COLD AIR SITTING BACK
IN QUEBEC READY TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. THINKING IS ONCE THE LOW
EXITS TO THE E, THAT COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT W/SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-15 MPH RIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THIS CLEARING IS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY W/CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO HIT 10 TO 20 BELOW AND THIS COUPLED W/THE
WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SOME DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
READINGS. NORTHWEST AND WESTERN MAINE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS REACH
WARNING CRITERIA(AOB -34F) BY 3-4 AM THURSDAY. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE
SOME CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. IF THIS DOES TAKE HOLD,
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP SOME, ALLOWING FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS TO STAY ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS
WHETHER AN UPGRADE TO A WIND CHILL WARNING IS NEEDED. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS SET UP FOR CENTRAL AND THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
INCLUDING BANGOR TO CALAIS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS WIND CHILLS COULD
HIT 20 BELOW W/TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 5 BELOW.
FOR THURSDAY, AN UPPER TROF IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE AT 700MBS IS SHOWN ESPECIALLY BY THE
GFS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK LIFT.
THE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG AND DECIDED TO STAY BELOW
15% FOR PRECIP CHANCES. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP ARCTIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BITTER COLD
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A FAST MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A NEW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PRESS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PULL STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW. NORMALLY WHEN A LOW LIFTS TO OUR
WEST BRINGING A STRONG SOUTH WIND, TEMPERATURES BECOME WARM ENOUGH
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. HOWEVER, THE ARCTIC AIR IS SO DEEP THAT
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL BUT
COASTAL LOCATIONS SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST IN EASTERN SPOTS WHERE A WEAK
SECONDARY REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST MAY FORM
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME ADDED SUPPORT TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. A FRESH SURGE OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY WITH
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY WILL QUICKLY SWING EAST
NORTHEAST APPROACHING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEW GFS IS NOW COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THIS SMALL LOW. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR, SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE FAVORED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BITTER COLD AND
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO THURSDAY. THE CAVEAT TO THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH AS KFVE AND KCAR AS
SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY W/THE NW FLOW. ATTM, DID NOT GO W/MVFR CIGS IN THE
NORTHERN TAFS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN IFR ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE IFR THROUGHOUT THE AREA IN
LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE GALE
WARNING OUT THROUGH 11 PM AS WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. 44027 ALREADY CLOSING IN ON 40 KT GUSTS PER THE 2 PM
OB. WAVE HEIGHTS ALSO NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THE LATEST
TRENDS SHOWED HIGHER SEAS THAN WHAT WAS BEING FCST. THE SWAN
GUIDANCE CAUGHT ON TO THE HIGHER SEAS OF 7-8 FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER ON AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY. THE GALE WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE
TRANSITIONED TO A SCA BY THE LATE EVENING FCST CYCLE.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR STRONG SOUTH
WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. A GALE MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. AN
SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003-004-
010.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GRAY ME
1152 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST ABOUT AREAWIDE. HAVE YET
TO SEE A DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURE READING THIS MORNING... THOUGH
AT LEAST ALL THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS ARE GONE. UPPER AIR SOUNDING
THIS MORNING SHOWED VERY DEEP COLD AIR... NOT ALLOWING MUCH MIXING
TO RAISE TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS NOW HAVE THEIR MAX TEMPERATURE
LOWERED BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES TODAY.
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR TODAY AND
ISSUED NEW ONES FOR TONIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY BASED ON
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES PLUS SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
COASTAL MAINE ALONG WITH MERRIMACK AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... SPREADING
INTO COASTAL MAINE THIS EVENING.
645AM UPDATE...
***A CLOSE CALL EXPECTED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY***
A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS THIS PACKAGE THROUGH 9 AM.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING AND THICKENING LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. LEANED
TOWARDS COLDER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS TODAY...WITH OUR
SHALLOW...BUT ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOWFALL AS FAR NORTH AS
THE PORTSMOUTH AREAS BY 23Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTH INTO OUR INITIALLY DRY AIR THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST EAST COAST INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAROCLINIC
LEAF DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALL AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE
BRINGS THIS SYSTEM OFF THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE TONIGHT...
DEEPENING IT FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME... MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST ABOUT .25 INCHES QPF IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ME/NH COAST. THERE WILL BE HIGH WATER
EQUIVALENT RATIONS... LENDING TO SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 2 TO
4 INCH RANGE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...IT STILL APPEARS THAT CLOSE TO 6 INCHES WILL
ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS
SECOND PERIOD EVENT. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD CHANGE
THESE TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE ME/NH COASTLINE. A QUICK LOOK AT THE UPCOMING 12Z RUN
AND SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS THIS MORNING.
FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY...ALLOWING THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THIS BORDERLINE
WARNING EVENT FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COULD EASILY SEE THE COASTLINE REQUIRING ADVISORIES DUE TO THE
FLUFF FACTOR. IT IS A SHORT DISTANCE FROM OUR CURRENT 2-4 INCH
FORECAST TO A 3-6 INCH ADVISORIES.
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COASTLINE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...LEADING TO SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN KEEPS THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW
STATIONARY WHICH MEANS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DRY BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. OVER THE WEEKEND A CLIPPER WILL SET OFF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY EXTREME COLD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. USED
SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES/POPS. EXACT TIMING OF FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT. NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING LIKELY CAUSING
IFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTLINE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
AS THE COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE EAST. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ012>014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018-023>028.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003>005-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ008-010.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
902 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR TODAY AND
ISSUED NEW ONES FOR TONIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY BASED ON
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES PLUS SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
COASTAL MAINE ALONG WITH MERRIMACK AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... SPREADING
INTO COASTAL MAINE THIS EVENING.
645AM UPDATE...
***A CLOSE CALL EXPECTED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY***
A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS THIS PACKAGE THROUGH 9 AM.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING AND THICKENING LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. LEANED
TOWARDS COLDER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS TODAY...WITH OUR
SHALLOW...BUT ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOWFALL AS FAR NORTH AS
THE PORTSMOUTH AREAS BY 23Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTH INTO OUR INITIALLY DRY AIR THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST EAST COAST INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAROCLINIC
LEAF DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALL AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE
BRINGS THIS SYSTEM OFF THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE TONIGHT...
DEEPENING IT FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME... MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST ABOUT .25 INCHES QPF IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ME/NH COAST. THERE WILL BE HIGH WATER
EQUIVALENT RATIONS... LENDING TO SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 2 TO
4 INCH RANGE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...IT STILL APPEARS THAT CLOSE TO 6 INCHES WILL
ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS
SECOND PERIOD EVENT. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD CHANGE
THESE TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE ME/NH COASTLINE. A QUICK LOOK AT THE UPCOMING 12Z RUN
AND SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS THIS MORNING.
FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY...ALLOWING THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THIS BORDERLINE
WARNING EVENT FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COULD EASILY SEE THE COASTLINE REQUIRING ADVISORIES DUE TO THE
FLUFF FACTOR. IT IS A SHORT DISTANCE FROM OUR CURRENT 2-4 INCH
FORECAST TO A 3-6 INCH ADVISORIES.
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COASTLINE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...LEADING TO SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN KEEPS THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW
STATIONARY WHICH MEANS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DRY BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. OVER THE WEEKEND A CLIPPER WILL SET OFF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY EXTREME COLD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. USED
SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES/POPS. EXACT TIMING OF FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT. NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING LIKELY CAUSING
IFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTLINE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
AS THE COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE EAST. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ012>014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018-023>028.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003>005-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ008-010.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
648 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
***A CLOSE CALL EXPECTED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY***
A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS THIS PACKAGE THROUGH 9 AM.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING AND THICKENING LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. LEANED
TOWARDS COLDER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS TODAY...WITH OUR
SHALLOW...BUT ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOWFAL AS FAR NORTH AS
THE PORTSMOUTH AREAS BY 23Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTH INTO OUR INITIALLY DRY AIR THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST EAST COAST IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAROCLINIC LEAF
DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALL AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE
BRINGS THIS SYSTEM OFF THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE
TONIGHT...DEEPENING IT FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST. AT
THIS TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST ABOUT ~.25 INCHES QPF IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ME/NH COAST. THERE WILL BE HIGH WATER
EQUIVALENT RATIONS...LENDING TO SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 2 TO
4 INCH RANGE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...IT STILL APPEARS THAT CLOSE TO 6 INCHES WILL
ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS
SECOND PERIOD EVENT. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD CHANGE
THESE TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE ME/NH COASTLINE. A QUICK LOOK AT THE UPCOMING 12Z RUN
AND SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS THIS MORNING.
FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY...ALLOWING THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THIS BORDERLINE
WARNING EVENT FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COULD EASILY SEE THE COASTLINE REQUIRING ADVISORIES DUE TO THE
FLUFF FACTOR. IT IS A SHORT DISTANCE FROM OUR CURRENT 2-4 INCH
FORECAST TO A 3-6 INCH ADVISORIES.
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...WITH -SN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTLINE.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...LEADING TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN KEEPS THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW
STATIONARY WHICH MEANS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI DRY BUT VERY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED. OVER
THE WEEKEND A CLIPPER WILL SET OFF SCT SNW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY
EXTREME COLD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. USED SUPERBLEND FOR
TEMPS/POPS. EXACT TIMING OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT.
NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING LIKELY CAUSING
IFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS WED NIGHT THRU FRI AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL SAT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTLINE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT GALES WILL CONITNUE OVER THE WATERS
AS THE COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE EAST. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
250 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS THIS PACKAGE.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING AND THICKENING LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. LEANED
TOWARDS COLDER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS TODAY...WITH OUR
SHALLOW...BUT ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOWFAL AS FAR NORTH AS
THE BOSTON AREA BY 19Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO HEAD
NORTH INTO OUR INITIALLY DRY AIR THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST EAST COAST IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ALL AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE BRINGS
THIS SYSTEM OFF THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE TONIGHT...DEEPENING IT
FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
ABOUT .25 INCHES QPF IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE
HIGH WATER EQUIVALENT RATIONS...LENDING TO SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE
2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...IT STILL APPEARS THAT CLOSE TO 6 INCHES WILL
ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS
SECOND PERIOD EVENT.
FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY...ALLOWING THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THIS BORDERLINE
WARNING EVENT FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COULD EASILY SEE THE COASTLINE REQUIRING ADVISORIES DUE TO THE
FLUFF FACTOR. IT IS A SHORT DISTANCE FROM OUR CURRENT 2-4 INCH
FORECAST TO A 3-6 INCH ADVISORIES.
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...WITH -SN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTLINE.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...LEADING TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN KEEPS THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW
STATIONARY WHICH MEANS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI DRY BUT VERY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED. OVER
THE WEEKEND A CLIPPER WILL SET OFF SCT SNW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY
EXTREME COLD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. USED SUPERBLEND FOR
TEMPS/POPS. EXACT TIMING OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT.
NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING LIKELY CAUSING
IFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS WED NIGHT THRU FRI AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL SAT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTLINE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT GALES WILL CONITNUE OVER THE WATERS
AS THE COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE EAST. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ007>009 AND MEZ012>014.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NHZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1209 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS...WITH NORTHERN AREAS NOW BELOW ZERO. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A LOWERING OF WIND CHILL VALUES.
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TIMING OF A LARGE AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING AROUND 16Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING NORTH AND EAST.
PREV DISC...COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT HAS MADE QUICKER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE TERRAIN TO THE NORTH IS NOT AS
HIGH AND THUS DID NOT BLOCK THE ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR AS MUCH.
THE FRONT HAS NOW MADE IT THROUGH AUGUSTA MAINE AND PLYMOUTH NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH TEMPERATURE DROPS OF 5 TO 7 DEGREES AS IT GOES
THROUGH. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO OCCURRING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS YET... BUT EXPECT A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH TO FALL... WITH ISOLATED TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS
SEEING AN INCH OR TWO.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING AS THE COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ARE SOLIDLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. EXPECT
READINGS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
TONIGHT... WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH COLD ADVECTION GOING STRONG... WINDS
WILL NOT DIE DOWN MUCH OVERNIGHT... WITH A 10 TO 15 MPH BREEZE
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
WIND WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL TO 30 BELOW OR COLDER IN
THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS WHERE A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH OF THERE WHERE WIND
CHILLS MAY FALL TO 20 BELOW OR COLDER BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR KEEPS A FIRM GRIP ON THE AREA TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY
RISE INTO THE TEENS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE
THE MOST WE CAN MANAGE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE
OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING THAT MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL GET SCRAPED BY THE
FRINGE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL TOTALS AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE QUITE DRY. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR
WILL ALSO MAKE FOR HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. ALTHOUGH TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO 0.25 ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTLINE... WITH HIGH SNOW RATIOS THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO 4 TO 6
INCHES OF POWDERY SNOW. USED A TOOL TO BASE SNOW RATIOS ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO GET THE FINAL SNOWFALL FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE HEAVIEST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE OF MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AS THIS IS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE UP TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW. THERE WERE IMPACT CONSIDERATIONS WHEN ISSUING THIS
WATCH AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 30 MPH... CAUSING THE POWDERY
SNOW TO BLOW AND DRIFT AROUND QUITE A BIT. THIS IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HEADLINES ISSUED FROM THE BOSTON FORECAST OFFICE
FOR NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MASSACHUSETTS. SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH WINDS ALSO STAYING UP AS
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE AREA
EXPECTED TO SEE 20 BELOW WIND CHILLS OR COLDER. WILL LIKELY NEED
TO ISSUE ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
INLAND MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE THIS
ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER CURRENTLY WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED TO AVOID CONFUSION.
SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING... IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE COASTAL LOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY... LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER COLD NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DROPPING BELOW ZERO
TO THE COAST WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS LIKELY OVER AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY A JET STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH... PULLING THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WITH 1000 500 THICKNESS BELOW 500DM,
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK.
FRIDAY THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION AND THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS... WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS
FALLING AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AND REQUIRING THE
COLD AIR TO SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION... THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING... AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THIS SYSTEM STALL INTO LATE SUNDAY BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES. ALREADY
MODELS HAVE A 12HR SPREAD IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING... HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SNOW THIS EVENING... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
TUESDAY EVENING LIKELY CAUSING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM... MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR RKD INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. FOR CEILING/VISIBILITY... EXPECT VFR FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE WEEKEND STORM PERIODS OF IFR ARE
LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER WATERS
AND PENOBSCOT BAY AS WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
COLD ADVECTION. WILL SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY BEFORE GALE CONDITIONS
BEGIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF OF CAPE COD.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING... BUT GALES
ARE MOST LIKELY AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALSO... MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND EXPANDING ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED LONGER AS COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK FOR GALES OVER THE WATERS AS
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT... WITH THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR A FEW
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL... PARTICULARLY ON THE
OUTER AND MORE EASTERN WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A PROBLEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ007>009.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ001-002.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
934 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...AND SFC OBS INDICATED THAT THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW HAD MOVED INTO NW LOWER MICHIGAN.
THE DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG NRLY FLOW
ACROSS THE PARTIALLY FROZEN WRN LAKE WAS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MODERATE
TO HEAVY LES. AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY HAVE BEEN EVEN GREATER WITHOUT
THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER. A HEAVIER LES BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE MESO-LOW OVER SOUTH CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WAS
ALSO MOVING INTO THE NRN KEWEENAW PENINSULA. HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO DROP TO THE SOUTH THROUGH BARAGA AND
MARQUETTE COUNTIES BTWN 05Z-09Z BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH
(1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES) ALONG WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN
NORTH WINDS AND BLSN. SINCE THE BAND SHOULD BE MORE
TRANSIENT...OVERALL SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES WERE UPGRADED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS OVER GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE SNOW REPORTS
RANGED FROM 2-4 INCHES AT IRONWOOD TO 5-6 INCHES AT ROCKLAND. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW HAS FALLEN SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE DROPPED VSBY AOB 1/4SM IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE EXPOSED TERRAIN IN THE
KEWEENAW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALSO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
OVERALL...THE MAIN STORY IS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS...AND LOW WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THIS WEEK MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE
INITIAL PASSING OF THE LARGER SCALE LOW PRESSURE. ORIGINAL THINKING
WAS THAT THE MESO LOW WOULD SEND A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE 6Z AND 12Z RUNS
SENT THIS BAND FURTHER NORTH INTO THE KEWEENAW DURING THIS TIME
FRAME/WHICH HAPPENS TO BE CORRECT PER RECENT OBS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE LOW AND THE APPROACHING
HIGH HAS BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. BEST ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT/SLIGHT RISE AND FALL COUPLET IS OVER THE KEWEENAW BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SINKING INTO NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUNTY/BARAGA LATE TONIGHT...AND INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE/ALGER
COUNTIES TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS HAVE
DETERIORATED ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS A RESULT OF THESE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH VISIBILITY OVER THE KEWEENAW DOWN TO 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...AND EXTENSIVE BLOWING SNOW AS
OF 1930Z. KIWD WAS EXPERIENCING VISIBILITY OF A 1/2 TO 1/4 OF A MILE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WERE OVERALL LIGHT.
OBSERVERS REPORTED LOTS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW BECAUSE OF THE
WINDS. KEPT THE OVERALL TREND AND SIMILAR SNOW TOTALS FROM THE MID
SHIFT FORECAST...BUT DELAYED THINGS BY ABOUT 3 HOURS AS THE 12Z RUNS
BROUGHT THINGS IN A LITTLE SLOWER. KEPT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES
FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/SOUTHERN HOUGHTON/BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW. THOUGHT
ABOUT PUTTING A WARNING UP FOR BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES...AS MODELS
VARIED QUITE A BIT ON QPF AND THEY NOW BRING THE WORST OF THE
CONDITIONS INTO MARQUETTE CITY TOWARDS THE MORNING COMMUTE.
HOWEVER...TRENDED IN THE MIDDLE FOR AMOUNTS FOR NOW...AND ONLY HAVE
3 TO 6 INCHES TOTAL IN FOR MOST THE COUNTIES. WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS MORNING FOR THESE AREAS.
BARAGA/NORTHERN MARQUETTE COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE MOST OF THIS LATE
AT NIGHT...WHEN IMPACTS ARE NOT AS HIGH. STILL...LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURON MOUNTAINS/HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -12F TO NEAR 2F ABOVE...AND
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE MENTIONED WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -20F TO -30F IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
AND PUT UP A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR IRON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES.
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WILL BE LIGHTER...SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MUCH MORE THAN A BRIEF MENTION OF LOW WIND CHILLS IN ALGER COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH RDGG OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA AND BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CONTINENT INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL ENSURE
THAT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO FEATURED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE MAINLY
NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND FRI...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BE ENDING OVER THE FAR NE CWA AS WINDS BACK SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. QUICK MOISTENING OF MID-LVLS ALONG WITH
MODERATE MID-LVL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 280-285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOC WITH CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD DUSTING
WEST TO MAYBE AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW EAST LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRI EVENING WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPS INTO SATURDAY. THE OTHER MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE NW-WNW SNOWBELTS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SATURDAY. AS THE POLAR VORTEX DESCENDS TO JAMES
BAY SATURDAY MORNING...8H TEMPS FALLING TO -25C TO -28C OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN POOR SNOW GROWTH AND SMALL SNOWFLAKE
SIZE FOR LES AS THE DGZ WILL BE SQUASHED NEAR THE LAKE SFC. THE
COMBINATION OF POOR SNOW GROWTH AND LIMITED FETCH DUE TO EXTENSIVE
ICE COVER WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MINIMAL LES ACCUMULATION OVER THE
WRN COUNTIES. LONGER FETCH OF OPEN WATER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF LES ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE EVENT
FOR THE ERN COUNTIES. NW WINDS GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS INDICATED BY MODEL FCST SNDGS
WILL ALSO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW OVER ERN
COUNTIES.
WITH CAA TAKING PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...NOT EXPECTING HIGH
TEMPS TO RISE MUCH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY SINGLE DIGITS
WEST TO AROUND 12F EAST...WITH LIKELY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS. WIND CHILLS DURING THE NOQUEMANON SKI MARATHON IN MQT
ON SATURDAY COULD APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT OVER ERN COUNTIES AND MAY
BE ENHANCED BY INCREASED LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE FROM LAND BREEZES OFF
UPPER MI AND ONTARIO. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THEN INTO SRN WI/NRN IL EARLY SUN WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SINGLE DIGIT BLO ZERO
READINGS. INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ASSOC WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A BIT TOWARD SUNRISE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW SURGE OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR
IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY MORNINGS CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH 8H TEMPS
FALLING TO -28C TO -30C BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS SUN AFTERNOON AND
BITTER COLD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER N-NW SNOWBELTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPEN WATER UPSTREAM. DGZ WILL BE
NONEXISTENT SO MAIN IMPACT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE REDUCED VSBY
DUE TO SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE. LES BANDS WILL SHIFT MORE OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES MON INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK MORE WNW. LOW TEMPS SUN
NIGHT AND MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST TO MID TO UPPER TEENS BLO ZERO OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST ALONG THE WI BORDER. NW GRAD WIND OF AROUND 10 MPH
AHEAD OF STRONG 1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ERN MT AND THE
DAKOTAS COMBINED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPS WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO DANGEROUS LEVELS DURING NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT WIND CHILL READINGS DURING THESE PERIODS TO DIP TO 20 TO 25
BELOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO WEST TO SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO EAST.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFYING
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH 8H TEMPS RISING TO -15 TO -17C BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEN TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY AND
8H TEMPS RISE DECREASING OVER WATER INSTABILITY. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPS
WILL TO REMAIN BELOW ZERO TUE NIGHT BUT HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR TO 10 TO
15 ABOVE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS OF 20-30
KNOTS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE BLSN ARE LEADING TO VLIFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH CMX AND IWD WITH VSBY DOWN TO 1/4SM-1/2SM. EXPECT THE
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS BOTH THE WIND AND SNOW DIMINISH.
THE LINGERING LES WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND IWD BUT MAY LINGER AT CMX.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN THE
MESOLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY/MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE KEWEENAW WILL MOVE INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DROP TO LIFR BY 10Z...AS MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS COMBINE
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS COULD REACH
VLIFR CRITERIA BRIEFLY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING...AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND THE LES
MOVES TO THE EAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
GALE WARNINGS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST GALES 35 TO 45 KNOTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS...A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION AND A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AND BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA THURSDAY
MORNING INTO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
GALES TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE PARENT LOW
MOVES INTO QUEBEC...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30
KNOTS. LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NORTH-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS LAKE SUPERIOR IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE LOW OVER
QUEBEC AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.
WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHWEST...GENERALLY
BELOW 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-264-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ264-
265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLB
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MCD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
509 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM
AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER
THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE
THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS
BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST
OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER
CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL.
HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN
AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA
THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD
MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN
ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL
EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING
INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC
TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.
SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE
OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER
REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING
ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES.
THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI
THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY
SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY.
WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/.
AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF
ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING
THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF
BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC.
WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT
TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO
-12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF
COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK
OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW
LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF
THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL
GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND
10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES
OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
LINGERING LES INTO CMX WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR VSBY WITH MVFR
CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CLOUDS AT SAW WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...PER SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS -SN AND IFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD AND KCMX WITH MVFR BY WED MORNING AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH WILL
PLACE A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING...DURING WHICH IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
AND PASS A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
503 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM
AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER
THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE
THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS
BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST
OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER
CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL.
HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN
AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA
THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD
MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN
ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL
EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING
INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC
TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.
SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE
OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER
REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING
ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES.
THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI
THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY
SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY.
WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/.
AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF
ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING
THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF
BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC.
WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT
TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO
-12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF
COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK
OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW
LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF
THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL
GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND
10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES
OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
LINGERING LES INTO CMX WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR VSBY WITH MVFR
CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CLOUDS AT SAW WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...PER SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS -SN AND IFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD AND KCMX WITH MVFR BY WED MORNING AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO AN END TODAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AS WINDS DIE DOWN. NEXT GALE EVENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE
FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH
MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD
AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1155 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ALF OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN CUTOFF UPR LO OVER QUEBEC AND RDG ALONG
THE W COAST. AT THE SFC...ARCTIC HI PRES IS CENTERED OVER SCENTRAL
CANADA. N FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -29C
AT PICKLE LAKE AND MOOSONEE IN ONTARIO...ACRS LK SUP IS CAUSING NMRS
WIND PARALLEL BANDS OF LK EFFECT SN THAT ARE AFFECTING DOWNSTREAM
AREAS NEAR THE BIG LAKE DESPITE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI AS WELL AS THE
FEED OF VERY DRY LLVL ARCTIC AIR. 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS SHOWED INVRN
BASE JUST BLO H9 UNDER THIS SUBSIDENCE. THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
HAS CAUSED SKIES TO TURN PCLDY OVER THE SCENTRAL. THERE IS ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV OVER THE DAKOTAS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALF...BUT
THIS DISTURBANCE IS ON A TRACK THAT WL TAKE IT WELL TO THE SW OF UPR
MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LES POPS AND SN AMOUNTS
AS WELL AS WIND CHILLS AND GOING HEADLINES.
TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC UNDER
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALF AND ON THE NRN FRINGES OF DAKOTA CLIPPER
SAILING SEWD TO THE S OF THE CWA. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO FALL TO AS
LO AS ABOUT -25C...SO LES WL CONTINUE IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS. BUT
AS THE SFC HI PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA SINKS TO SW MN BY 12Z TUE...
THE LLVL FLOW OVER UPR MI IS FCST TO BACK SLOWLY FM THE N TOWARD THE
NW WITH TIME...SO THE SN BANDS SHOULD SHIFT ACCORDINGLY. ALTHOUGH
THE LARGER SCALE H925-85 WL BE BACKING...A NUMBER OF THE HIER RES
MODELS STILL SHOW A NEAR SFC ENE LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF ONTARIO
ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING IMPACTING THE ERN CWA AND SHARPENING
LLVL CNVGC IN ALGER/WRN LUCE/ NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. DESPITE THE
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE... FCST SDNGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW INVRN BASES
UP NEAR 7K FT WITH LONGER FETCH OVER MORE OPEN ICE FREE WATER
ENHANCING MIXING. ALTHOUGH THE DGZ IS FCST TO LOWER TO WITHIN 1-2K
FT OF THE SFC...THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR GOING LES ADVY FOR THIS AREA.
SHIFTING WINDS/MORE ICE COVER OVER WRN LK SUP/LOWER INVRN BASE NEAR
3-4K FT/NEAR ABSENCE OF DGZ OVER THE W WITH COLDER...MORE UNMODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES WL FALL OVER THE
W. SINCE THE BACKING FLOW WL INTRODUCE MORE UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE W HALF OF UPR MI WITH MIN SFC TEMPS FALLING WELL BLO
ZERO...WL MAINTAIN GOING WIND CHILL ADVY EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT
MEET THE MINIMUM 10 MPH CRITERIA AT MANY LOCATIONS.
TUE...SFC ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT INTO FAR NW IL BY
00Z WED...RESULTING IN A SLOW BACKING/WEAKENING OF THE LLVL WINDS.
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE ACYC FLOW...THE LES
OVER THE W SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE BANDS SHIFT MAINLY INTO THE
KEWEENAW BY LATER IN THE DAY. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...LLVL CNVGC
INTO THE ERN CWA IS ALSO FCST TO WEAKEN. IN CONCERT WITH TREND
TOWARD MORE DISORGANIZED BAND STRUCTURE WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS AND
A FCST LOWERING OF THE INVRN BASE UNDER THE SUSTAINED QVECTOR
DVGC... LES INTENSITY IN THE ADVY AREA OVER THE E SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE AFTN. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABV ZERO OVER
THE INTERIOR W...BUT DIMINISHING WIND WL MODERATE WIND CHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A BROAD
TROUGH ENVELOPS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTINENT INCLUDING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND LESSER CHCS FOR SNOW FOR
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS INDICATE LAND
BREEZES OFF ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH MESOLOW AND ASSOC
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFFSHORE OF ERN COUNTIES AND OUT OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS OF COURSE WOULD RESULT IN A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR ERN COUNTIES. AT SAME
TIME...MODELS ALSO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM DESCENDING THROUGH
MANITOBA/ONTARIO TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED WHICH IN TURN WILL ENHANCE MID-LAKE CONVERGNCE...LAKE-INDUCED
TROUGH AND ASSOC MESOLOW FEATURES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEP LAYER
MODERATE Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD DUSTING OF LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF CLIPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP WIND CHILLS GENERALLY GREATER THAN
-20F OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE NIGHT.
WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MESOLOWS AND MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE BANDS ONSHORE
INTO UPPER MI BRINGING THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH WIND SHIFT...EXPECT MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE OVER MAINLY OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MOVE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENT TO MESOLOWS AND
MID LAKE CONVERGENCE LES BANDS RESIDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY. NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW ALSO SHOW STRONG PRES RISES IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FCST SNDGS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS 35-40 KTS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEL QPF FIELDS SUGGEST HEAVIEST BANDS WILL
FOCUS INTO MQT COUNTY WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FCST FOR HEAVY LES AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MQT COUNTY WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. FOR NOW ONLY INCLUDED MQT COUNTY IN
WATCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HEADLINES WILL ALSO BE NEEDED
FOR BARAGA AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AS WINDS BACK NW WITH APPROACH OF SFC RDG FM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE LES BANDS WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING LIGHT LES EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FAR ERN
SHORELINE...WINDS BACKING WSW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LES OUT OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING A VERY BRIEF BREAK FROM SNOW THU EVENING
BEFORE YET ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS IN A CHC FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING LATE FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
INCREASED MOISTENING...DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV ALONG WITH CONVERGENT
W-WNW FLOW FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING TO BRING AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LES INTO THE NW CWA. WITH BLYR WINDS FCST
OVER 30 KTS ACROSS KEWEENAW AND LK SUPERIOR...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT BLSN/DRSN AND POOR VSBY AS WELL.
MOST MODELS SHOW POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING NEAR TIP OF JAMES BAY THIS
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT HEART OF COLDEST AIR (8H TEMPS
-35F OR LOWER) WILL STAY NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT SHORTWAVE
LOBES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE COULD BRING WAVE OF 8H TEMPS OF
-28 TO -30F ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS AROUND 10F TO LOWER TEENS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH ABV ZERO
AT SOME WRN INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT NW FLOW LES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
A COLD N WIND BRINGING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN TO UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY
BACK SW OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...BRINGING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TEMPORARILY. THE COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL
SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. THUS...CONDITIONS MAY
VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IS USUALLY THE CASE DURING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
KCMX WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY -SHSN...AND CONDITIONS THERE WILL
LIKELY VARY BTWN MVFR AND IFR FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE BRIEF LIFR AS WELL. -SHSN AT KCMX WON`T END
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS BACK TO THE SW. KIWD WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH -SHSN AT TIMES REDUCING VIS TO IFR.
BACKING WINDS COMBINED WITH ICE COVER OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.
WHILE THERE MAY BE AN OCNL MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT...KSAW WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VFR WITH MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THRU THE PERIOD.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS EVENING MAY BRING -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
TO KIWD NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
WITH NNW WINDS UP TO 20-30 KTS ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO CONTINUE INTO TUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT DIMINISHING WINDS ON
TUE WILL CAUSE THIS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. NEXT
GALE EVENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ANOTHER
GALE IS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-
250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
938 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
AT 9 PM CST...THE RAP MODEL PLACES THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF THE H850 CIRCULATION IS AROUND
STANLEY. THIS PLACES A NORTHERLY H850 GRADIENT OF 30 KTS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH UNDER WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY APPROACHING 20 BELOW DEVILS
LAKE BASIN TO RUGBY THIS WILL BE PLENTY TO LOWER THE WIND CHILLS
TO 40 BELOW OR COLDER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS TO REACH THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY AS IS TYPICAL FOR ARCTIC AIR EVENTS. CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE RAPID COOLING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. NOTHING TO STOP
THIS TREND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE A
COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TO 30 BELOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THIS SETUP DELIVERS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOME OF ITS COLDEST TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER IN SOME AREAS LIKE THE WEST
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STAY A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED.
WIND CHILLS IN THE COLDEST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 40 TO 55
BELOW ZERO. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO
A WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST UP TO WILLIAMS
COUNTY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TOMORROW AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD START SOMETIME AFTER 12 UTC.
THUS POSSIBLE HEADLINES COULD BE TAKEN OUT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS CONDITIONS WARM UP.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
AN ACTIVE EARLY LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS
AFFECTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST WARM
FRONT/COLD FRONT CLIPPER IS SLATED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THE SECOND SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES FORM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG
SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IS REFLECTED ACROSS THE WEST WITH H85
TEMPS RISING TO +4C TO +6C BY 18Z FRIDAY. BETWEEN 18Z FRIDAY AND 00Z
SATURDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH NORTH AND EAST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AND
SPREADING SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION EITHER
A RAIN/SNOW PRECIPITATION REGIME AS PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE
TRANSITION ZONE/WARM SECTOR IS MEAGER. WITH A QUICK SURGE TO H85
TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 30S
THERE WILL BE A QUICK TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN. THERE COULD BE A
NARROW/BRIEF AREA OF A WINTRY MIX...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD WITH THIS IDEA. FOR THIS IS UNCERTAIN AND
WILL ADJUST IF NECESSARY AS WE GET CLOSER. ANOTHER PRESSURE RISE OF
7 TO 10MB/6HR ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD AIR ADVECTION POCKET OF
-10C/12HR WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM FRIDAYS EVENT WILL
RESIDE MAINLY IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT CLIPPER THEN RIDES ALONG THE FRONT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
MORE EXPANSIVE AND STRONGER 6HR PRESSURE RISE OF 16-18MB/6HR MOVING
THROUGH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SNOW RECEIVED SATURDAY/SUNDAY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CONCERN FOR BLOWING SNOW AND MUCH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. WIND CHILL VALUES
BETWEEN 25 AND 38 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST.
FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 1040MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA MONDAY WILL DRIFT TO NEAR ABERDEEN BY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT VERY COLD
WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 15 ABOVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZERO. THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL LOOKS TO ACHIEVE WIND CHILL CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A RETURN
FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WIND CHILLS TO 50 BELOW
06Z-15Z WILL PRESENT A HAZARD TO SURFACE OPERATIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THURSDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-010>013-018>023-025-033>037-042-045>048-050-051.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THURSDAY FOR
NDZ009-017-031-032-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM/MM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SNOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ARE STRONGER THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AND
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. ASOS/AWOS INDICATES VSBY 1/2SM TO 3/4SM...WHICH LIKELY
MEANS OPEN AREAS ARE LESS THAN 1/2SM. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THIS AREA WHERE THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 18-22 KNOTS INTO MID-AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID INCREASE POPS T0
100% WHERE IT IS...AND WILL SNOW.
WILL TACKLE THE STRONG COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS...WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW EVENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY THIS MORNING FIRMLY WITHIN THE 25 TO 40
BELOW RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY DIPPING EVEN COLDER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WIND FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BRINGING WARM ADVECTION SNOW AHEAD OF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE. A SOLID INCH IS EXPECTED WITH UPWARDS OF TWO IN SOME
SPOTS. MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS...ALTHOUGH THE
RAP IS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR AROUND 18 UTC WITH 30
KTS. IF THE STRONGER RAP VERIFIES...GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PROBABILITY OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION BELOW 1/2 MILE IS AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR
A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE
BLOWING SNOW MODEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT TODAY IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE TREES OF NORTHWEST MN TO THE LOWER
TEENS WEST OF THE VALLEY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW TO 850 HPA AND MIXED
LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW...BUT STRONGEST WINDS WON/T MATERIALIZE
UNTIL AFTER 06 UTC TONIGHT...SO WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT VIEW A
COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE A DECISION IS MADE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO
HOIST A NEW WIND CHILL HEADLINE. EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK
INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY ALL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD (20 TO 25
BELOW) WITH CLEAR SKIES AS A 1048 TO 1050 HPA SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS EAST
OF THE HIGH CENTER ALLOWING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 40
BELOW. SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...
BUT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THURSDAY MID-
AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS DEEP
POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND THEN MOVES
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. AS IT DROPS SOUTH LOOK FOR A 500 MB SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY GIVING INCREASED WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. AHEAD
OF IT ON FRIDAY A BRIEF WARM UP WITH WEST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH SAT NIGHT-MON AS TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET AT ALL
POINTS...20 KT WINDS WILL ASSIST TO REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES TO ARD
1/2SM. WIND SHIFT LINE FROM S TO NW CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
MINOT-BISMARCK LINE...SHOULD MAKE IT TO OUR SITES THIS EVENING WITH
SUSTAINED OF 20 KTS AND GUSTS TOWARD 30. BLSN WILL THUS REMAIN AN
ISSUE THROUGH WED. MVFR CIGS CLOSELY LINKED TO SNOW AREA WILL LIFT
TO VFR ONCE SNOW ENDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-
016-026>030-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-
002-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SNOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ARE STRONGER THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AND
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. ASOS/AWOS INDICATES VSBY 1/2SM TO 3/4SM...WHICH LIKELY
MEANS OPEN AREAS ARE LESS THAN 1/2SM. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THIS AREA WHERE THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 18-22 KNOTS INTO MID-AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID INCREASE POPS T0
100% WHERE IT IS...AND WILL SNOW.
WILL TACKLE THE STRONG COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS...WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW EVENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY THIS MORNING FIRMLY WITHIN THE 25 TO 40
BELOW RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY DIPPING EVEN COLDER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WIND FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BRINGING WARM ADVECTION SNOW AHEAD OF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE. A SOLID INCH IS EXPECTED WITH UPWARDS OF TWO IN SOME
SPOTS. MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS...ALTHOUGH THE
RAP IS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR AROUND 18 UTC WITH 30
KTS. IF THE STRONGER RAP VERIFIES...GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PROBABILITY OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION BELOW 1/2 MILE IS AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR
A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE
BLOWING SNOW MODEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT TODAY IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE TREES OF NORTHWEST MN TO THE LOWER
TEENS WEST OF THE VALLEY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW TO 850 HPA AND MIXED
LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW...BUT STRONGEST WINDS WON/T MATERIALIZE
UNTIL AFTER 06 UTC TONIGHT...SO WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT VIEW A
COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE A DECISION IS MADE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO
HOIST A NEW WIND CHILL HEADLINE. EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK
INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY ALL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD (20 TO 25
BELOW) WITH CLEAR SKIES AS A 1048 TO 1050 HPA SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS EAST
OF THE HIGH CENTER ALLOWING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 40
BELOW. SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...
BUT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THURSDAY MID-
AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS DEEP
POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND THEN MOVES
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. AS IT DROPS SOUTH LOOK FOR A 500 MB SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY GIVING INCREASED WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. AHEAD
OF IT ON FRIDAY A BRIEF WARM UP WITH WEST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH SAT NIGHT-MON AS TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MAINLY
MVFR CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH AN OCCASIONAL MIDDAY GUST UP TO 22 KTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. CEILINGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3000 FT AGL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-052-
053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-
016-026>030-054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ003-005-006-008-
009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-
002-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
WIND CHILL VALUES IMPROVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT A FEW NEARBY OBSERVATIONS
STILL REPORTING VALUES FROM 25 TO 30 BELOW. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF IT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY LATER THIS MORNING.
RADAR ECHOES INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL ND WITH ROLLA/RUGBY/CANDO NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS 1.5 MILES. CURRENT POPS/WX LOOK
GOOD WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW EVENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY THIS MORNING FIRMLY WITHIN THE 25 TO 40
BELOW RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY DIPPING EVEN COLDER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WIND FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BRINGING WARM ADVECTION SNOW AHEAD OF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE. A SOLID INCH IS EXPECTED WITH UPWARDS OF TWO IN SOME
SPOTS. MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS...ALTHOUGH THE
RAP IS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR AROUND 18 UTC WITH 30
KTS. IF THE STRONGER RAP VERIFIES...GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PROBABILITY OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION BELOW 1/2 MILE IS AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR
A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE
BLOWING SNOW MODEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT TODAY IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE TREES OF NORTHWEST MN TO THE LOWER
TEENS WEST OF THE VALLEY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW TO 850 HPA AND MIXED
LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW...BUT STRONGEST WINDS WON/T MATERIALIZE
UNTIL AFTER 06 UTC TONIGHT...SO WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT VIEW A
COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE A DECISION IS MADE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO
HOIST A NEW WIND CHILL HEADLINE. EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK
INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY ALL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD (20 TO 25
BELOW) WITH CLEAR SKIES AS A 1048 TO 1050 HPA SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS EAST
OF THE HIGH CENTER ALLOWING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 40
BELOW. SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...
BUT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THURSDAY MID-
AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS DEEP
POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND THEN MOVES
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. AS IT DROPS SOUTH LOOK FOR A 500 MB SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY GIVING INCREASED WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. AHEAD
OF IT ON FRIDAY A BRIEF WARM UP WITH WEST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH SAT NIGHT-MON AS TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MAINLY
MVFR CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH AN OCCASIONAL MIDDAY GUST UP TO 22 KTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. CEILINGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3000 FT AGL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-027>030-
038-039-049-052-053.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW EVENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY THIS MORNING FIRMLY WITHIN THE 25 TO 40
BELOW RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY DIPPING EVEN COLDER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WIND FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BRINGING WARM ADVECTION SNOW AHEAD OF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE. A SOLID INCH IS EXPECTED WITH UPWARDS OF TWO IN SOME
SPOTS. MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS...ALTHOUGH THE
RAP IS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR AROUND 18 UTC WITH 30
KTS. IF THE STRONGER RAP VERIFIES...GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PROBABILITY OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION BELOW 1/2 MILE IS AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR
A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE
BLOWING SNOW MODEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT TODAY IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE TREES OF NORTHWEST MN TO THE LOWER
TEENS WEST OF THE VALLEY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW TO 850 HPA AND MIXED
LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW...BUT STRONGEST WINDS WON/T MATERIALIZE
UNTIL AFTER 06 UTC TONIGHT...SO WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT VIEW A
COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE A DECISION IS MADE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO
HOIST A NEW WIND CHILL HEADLINE. EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK
INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY ALL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD (20 TO 25
BELOW) WITH CLEAR SKIES AS A 1048 TO 1050 HPA SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS EAST
OF THE HIGH CENTER ALLOWING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 40
BELOW. SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...
BUT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THURSDAY MID-
AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS DEEP
POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND THEN MOVES
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. AS IT DROPS SOUTH LOOK FOR A 500 MB SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY GIVING INCREASED WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. AHEAD
OF IT ON FRIDAY A BRIEF WARM UP WITH WEST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH SAT NIGHT-MON AS TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY ALONG WITH A SNOW BAND MOVING
WEST TO EAST AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...MOVING EAST
THEREAFTER. THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD IN
THE VALLEY AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH FRESH POWDER TO
BLOW AROUND.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-027>030-
038-039-049-052-053.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
357 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH BY TONIGHT...ENDING THE SNOWFALL. MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVES IN TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT CROSS THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SENT AN UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH...AND PORTIONS OF KY AND WV ADJACENT TO THE OH RIVER.
RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THE BACK EDGE OF MODERATE SNOWFALL ALREADY
PASSED HTS...AND PKB...REACHING CRW BY 20Z. ONLY FLURRIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THIS PARTICULAR AND FORMER ADVISORY AREA.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM UNTIL ALL
THE SNOW EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WIND CHILL WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE OH RIVER BY 18Z. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...WITH
SNOW AND WIND DIMINISHING SOME...SPREADING WEST TO EAST. SFC OBS
INDICATE SNOWFALL STOPPED AT UPSTREAM STATIONS WEST OF PERRY
COUNTY AND OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OH.
SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AT HTS...CRW...AND PKB AROUND
2-3PM THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS CONTINUING WITH LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL TRIM DOWN
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV COUNTIES ALONG THE
OH RIVER BY 3PM.
THE MOUNTAINS COUNTIES WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER. BASED POPS USING THE RUC13 WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT
WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF WV...AND SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 4-6 PM. LINGERING MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF
FORCING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS STILL ON TAP TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MAINLY ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES OF WV...AND ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
H5 CHARTS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH WITH STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING
JUST SOUTH...ACROSS TN INTO THE COROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST WIND FLOW BECOMING STRONG FROM THE NORTH BRINGING H85
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MINUS 22C. THEREFORE...EXPECT MUCH COLDER
AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F AT TIMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BELOW -10F ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWLANDS...SPECIFICALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY...AND NORTHERN WV LOWLAND
COUNTIES. THEREFORE...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOOSES ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION...CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED OR ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING CENTRAL WV UNTIL ALL SNOW STOPS.
PREVIOUS SNOW TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS IN SYNC WITH GROUND
REPORTS...FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES LOWLANDS...RANGING TO 5 TO 7 INCHES
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL NOT BE SURPRISE TO HAVE 8 TO 10 ACROSS
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A DEEP LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SWING OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW
TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LOWLANDS TO RIGHT AROUND ZERO
AT THE RIDGES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ABUNDANT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY ONCE THE TROUGH PUSHES PAST. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES
WITH AN 1 OR LESS LOWER DOWN. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING THEN PERSIST THROUGH
DAY...MAKING WIND CHILLS A CONTINUED CONCERN AS AN EVEN COLDER AIR
MASS PUSHES IN.
THE AXIS OF A DEEPER AND COLDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WEST
VIRGINIA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY PUTTING THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CENTERED
RIGHT OVER THE AREA AS SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND SKIES CLEAR
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD NIGHT
TIME LOWS...ESPECIALLY IF WE MANAGE TO HANG ON TO WIDESPREAD SNOW
COVER IN THE LOWLANDS. SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY MAKING FOR A RATHER NICE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IF STILL
BELOW FREEZING DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO KEEP A TROUGH FIRMLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
DRY LOW LEVELS SUGGEST THAT ANY PRECIP THAT BEGINS WILL BE SNOW OR
PERHAPS A MIX.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN
THE 20S ON MONDAY. REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. MEX
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED STILL COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO SINGLE DIGITS
MONDAY NIGHT AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 20S IN THE
LOWLANDS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST OHIO BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL CROSSING THE OH RIVER ATTM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS
OF TOTAL DEFORMATION TO AFFECT ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
CRW...NORTHEAST TO CKB. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE
LOWLAND SITES AS ONE OF THE MAIN SNOW BANDS MOVES EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNDER GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AFTER 22Z...ALONG
WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 24 KTS
ACROSS LOWLANDS AND UP TO 30 KTS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES ARE
POSSIBLE.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MOUNTAINS ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...WITH IFR CIGS HANGING ON THERE LONGER THAN LOWLANDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVE CONDITIONS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON THE END OF SNOWFALL. IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LONGER
THAN FORECAST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES
TONIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L M L L L L L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H L M M L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRLX RADAR REMAINS IN SERVICE. LEGACY RADAR PRODUCTS SHOULD BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF ACTUAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DUAL POLARIZATION
PRODUCTS MAY BE UNRELIABLE UNTIL REPLACEMENT HARDWARE ARRIVES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ008-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009>011-019-020-030>032-035>040.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LS/JR
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ARJ
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
254 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH BY TONIGHT...ENDING THE SNOWFALL. MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVES IN TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT CROSS THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SENT AN UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH...AND PORTIONS OF KY AND WV ADJACENT TO THE OH RIVER.
RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THE BACK EDGE OF MODERATE SNOWFALL ALREADY
PASSED HTS...AND PKB...REACHING CRW BY 20Z. ONLY FLURRIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THIS PARTICULAR AND FORMER ADVISORY AREA.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM UNTIL ALL
THE SNOW EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WIND CHILL WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE OH RIVER BY 18Z. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...WITH
SNOW AND WIND DIMINISHING SOME...SPREADING WEST TO EAST. SFC OBS
INDICATE SNOWFALL STOPPED AT UPSTREAM STATIONS WEST OF PERRY
COUNTY AND OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OH.
SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AT HTS...CRW...AND PKB AROUND
2-3PM THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS CONTINUING WITH LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL TRIM DOWN
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV COUNTIES ALONG THE
OH RIVER BY 3PM.
THE MOUNTAINS COUNTIES WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER. BASED POPS USING THE RUC13 WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT
WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF WV...AND SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 4-6 PM. LINGERING MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF
FORCING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS STILL ON TAP TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MAINLY ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES OF WV...AND ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
H5 CHARTS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH WITH STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING
JUST SOUTH...ACROSS TN INTO THE COROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST WIND FLOW BECOMING STRONG FROM THE NORTH BRINGING H85
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MINUS 22C. THEREFORE...EXPECT MUCH COLDER
AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F AT TIMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BELOW -10F ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWLANDS...SPECIFICALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY...AND NORTHERN WV LOWLAND
COUNTIES. THEREFORE...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOOSES ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION...CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED OR ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING CENTRAL WV UNTIL ALL SNOW STOPS.
PREVIOUS SNOW TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS IN SYNC WITH GROUND
REPORTS...FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES LOWLANDS...RANGING TO 5 TO 7 INCHES
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL NOT BE SURPRISE TO HAVE 8 TO 10 ACROSS
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP FREEZE CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOWSTORM...WITH UPPER
LEVEL L/W TROUGH LARGE AND IN CHARGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONTINENT.
THE HIGH BRINGS AN END TO ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WED MORNING...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WED FOR AN OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD DAY.
THE NEXT S/W TROUGH AND REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR APPROACH LATE
WED NT AND CROSS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DRIVES A SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PASSING N OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES. HAVE POPS INCREASING W
TO E WED NT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE WED NT THROUGH THU AT
LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE 06Z NAM12 THROWS IN A BIT OF A WRINKLE
HERE...WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING ESEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE W FRI MORNING...WINDS BACK...AND THE SENSE OF THERMAL
ADVECTION REVERSES.
BLENDED IN MAINLY NAM AND MET BASED VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH
VALUES CLOSE TO OR A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WED NT...FOLLOWED BY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE
TOWARD DAWN THU AND THROUGH THE DAY THU...NEARLY FLAT-LINE
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DURING THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES DO FALL A BIT IN THE
COLD ADVECTION THU MORNING BEFORE A SMALL RECOVERY TAKES PLACE THU
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH OVERALL FORECAST IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. LONG
WAVE TROUGH ASSOC WITH HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
AND VARYING DEGREES OF COLD TEMPS. DID TEMPER OUR `WARMUP` ON
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM LOW 20S NORTHERN LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS...BASED ON LATEST MOS GUIDE
AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPS. WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY...BUT EVEN HERE WENT A BIT COOLER VERSUS PREV FCST WITH
850/925MB TEMPS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR
LOWLANDS...WITH NORTHERN LOWLAND ZONES STRUGGLING TO CRACK THE
FREEZING MARK. STILL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY...YET WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY WPC...WITH MAX
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW-MID 30S LOWLANDS. NONETHELESS...WILL
POINT OUT THAT SHOULD THIS FRONT ARRIVE QUICKER...SUNDAY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND...GENERALLY KEPT INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAY. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO KEEP PRECIP-TYPE AS ALL SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. EVEN WITH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...DRY LOW LEVELS AND A LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WOULD
MEAN ANY PRECIP THAT INITIALLY BEGINS AS RAIN WILL VERY QUICKLY
CHANGE TO A MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. FINALLY...REGARDING MAX TEMPS ON
MONDAY...LOWERED JUST A BIT FROM PREV FCST TO TREND COOLER TO
REFLECT LOW/MID 20S LOWLANDS...WITH UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS. HOWEVER...LATEST MEX GUIDE ALREADY REFLECTING TEENS FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS CRW FOR MONDAY. LATEST ECM HOLDING ONTO A HIGH OF
27 FOR CRW. OPERATIONAL GFS/EC 925MB TEMPS OF ~13C WITH CLOUD COVER
WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS FOR THE LOWLANDS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE TEENS. STANDARD DEVIATIONS ASSOC WITH THOSE MOS TEMPS ARE WAY UP
AROUND 5-6 AND WITH MONDAY STILL BEING 7 DAYS OUT. BUT THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR MONDAY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL CROSSING THE OH RIVER ATTM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS
OF TOTAL DEFORMATION TO AFFECT ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
CRW...NORTHEAST TO CKB. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE
LOWLAND SITES AS ONE OF THE MAIN SNOW BANDS MOVES EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNDER GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AFTER 22Z...ALONG
WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 24 KTS
ACROSS LOWLANDS AND UP TO 30 KTS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES ARE
POSSIBLE.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MOUNTAINS ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...WITH IFR CIGS HANGING ON THERE LONGER THAN LOWLANDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVE CONDITIONS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON THE END OF SNOWFALL. IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LONGER
THAN FORECAST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES
TONIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L M L L L L L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H L M M L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRLX RADAR REMAINS IN SERVICE. LEGACY RADAR PRODUCTS SHOULD BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF ACTUAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DUAL POLARIZATION
PRODUCTS MAY BE UNRELIABLE UNTIL REPLACEMENT HARDWARE ARRIVES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ008-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009>011-019-020-030>032-035>040.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ
EQUIPMENT...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH BY TONIGHT...ENDING THE SNOWFALL. MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVES IN TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT CROSS THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE OH RIVER BY 18Z. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...WITH
SNOW AND WIND DIMINISHING SOME...SPREADING WEST TO EAST. SFC OBS
INDICATE SNOWFALL STOPPED AT UPSTREAM STATIONS WEST OF PERRY
COUNTY AND OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OH.
SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AT HTS...CRW...AND PKB AROUND
2-3PM THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS CONTINUING WITH LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL TRIM DOWN
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV COUNTIES ALONG THE
OH RIVER BY 3PM.
THE MOUNTAINS COUNTIES WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER. BASED POPS USING THE RUC13 WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT
WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF WV...AND SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 4-6 PM. LINGERING MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF
FORCING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS STILL ON TAP TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MAINLY ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES OF WV...AND ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
H5 CHARTS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH WITH STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING
JUST SOUTH...ACROSS TN INTO THE COROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST WIND FLOW BECOMING STRONG FROM THE NORTH BRINGING H85
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MINUS 22C. THEREFORE...EXPECT MUCH COLDER
AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F AT TIMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BELOW -10F ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWLANDS...SPECIFICALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY...AND NORTHERN WV LOWLAND
COUNTIES. THEREFORE...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOOSES ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION...CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED OR ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING CENTRAL WV UNTIL ALL SNOW STOPS.
PREVIOUS SNOW TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS IN SYNC WITH GROUND
REPORTS...FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES LOWLANDS...RANGING TO 5 TO 7 INCHES
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL NOT BE SURPRISE TO HAVE 8 TO 10 ACROSS
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP FREEZE CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOWSTORM...WITH UPPER
LEVEL L/W TROUGH LARGE AND IN CHARGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONTINENT.
THE HIGH BRINGS AN END TO ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WED MORNING...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WED FOR AN OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD DAY.
THE NEXT S/W TROUGH AND REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR APPROACH LATE
WED NT AND CROSS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DRIVES A SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PASSING N OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES. HAVE POPS INCREASING W
TO E WED NT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE WED NT THROUGH THU AT
LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE 06Z NAM12 THROWS IN A BIT OF A WRINKLE
HERE...WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING ESEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE W FRI MORNING...WINDS BACK...AND THE SENSE OF THERMAL
ADVECTION REVERSES.
BLENDED IN MAINLY NAM AND MET BASED VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH
VALUES CLOSE TO OR A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WED NT...FOLLOWED BY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE
TOWARD DAWN THU AND THROUGH THE DAY THU...NEARLY FLAT-LINE
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DURING THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES DO FALL A BIT IN THE
COLD ADVECTION THU MORNING BEFORE A SMALL RECOVERY TAKES PLACE THU
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH OVERALL FORECAST IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. LONG
WAVE TROUGH ASSOC WITH HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
AND VARYING DEGREES OF COLD TEMPS. DID TEMPER OUR `WARMUP` ON
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM LOW 20S NORTHERN LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS...BASED ON LATEST MOS GUIDE
AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPS. WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY...BUT EVEN HERE WENT A BIT COOLER VERSUS PREV FCST WITH
850/925MB TEMPS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR
LOWLANDS...WITH NORTHERN LOWLAND ZONES STRUGGLING TO CRACK THE
FREEZING MARK. STILL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY...YET WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY WPC...WITH MAX
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW-MID 30S LOWLANDS. NONETHELESS...WILL
POINT OUT THAT SHOULD THIS FRONT ARRIVE QUICKER...SUNDAY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND...GENERALLY KEPT INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAY. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO KEEP PRECIP-TYPE AS ALL SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. EVEN WITH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...DRY LOW LEVELS AND A LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WOULD
MEAN ANY PRECIP THAT INITIALLY BEGINS AS RAIN WILL VERY QUICKLY
CHANGE TO A MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. FINALLY...REGARDING MAX TEMPS ON
MONDAY...LOWERED JUST A BIT FROM PREV FCST TO TREND COOLER TO
REFLECT LOW/MID 20S LOWLANDS...WITH UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS. HOWEVER...LATEST MEX GUIDE ALREADY REFLECTING TEENS FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS CRW FOR MONDAY. LATEST ECM HOLDING ONTO A HIGH OF
27 FOR CRW. OPERATIONAL GFS/EC 925MB TEMPS OF ~13C WITH CLOUD COVER
WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS FOR THE LOWLANDS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE TEENS. STANDARD DEVIATIONS ASSOC WITH THOSE MOS TEMPS ARE WAY UP
AROUND 5-6 AND WITH MONDAY STILL BEING 7 DAYS OUT. BUT THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR MONDAY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL CROSSING THE OH RIVER ATTM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS
OF TOTAL DEFORMATION TO AFFECT ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
CRW...NORTHEAST TO CKB. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE
LOWLAND SITES AS ONE OF THE MAIN SNOW BANDS MOVES EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNDER GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AFTER 22Z...ALONG
WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 24 KTS
ACROSS LOWLANDS AND UP TO 30 KTS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES ARE
POSSIBLE.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MOUNTAINS ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...WITH IFR CIGS HANGING ON THERE LONGER THAN LOWLANDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVE CONDITIONS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON THE END OF SNOWFALL. IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LONGER
THAN FORECAST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES
TONIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H L L L L L L L L H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRLX RADAR REMAINS IN SERVICE. LEGACY RADAR PRODUCTS SHOULD BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF ACTUAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DUAL POLARIZATION
PRODUCTS MAY BE UNRELIABLE UNTIL REPLACEMENT HARDWARE ARRIVES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ005>007-009>011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ008-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009>011-019-020-030>032-035>040.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ076-
085>087.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ066-067-075-083-084.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ
EQUIPMENT...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
600 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST THIS
EVENING...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDY AND FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. COLDER THAN NORMAL WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
STARTED TO TRIM BACK THE ADVISORY AND WARNING FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS/FORECAST.
FROM EARLIER...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FIELDS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT/S STEADY AS SHE GOES
WITH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MEAN ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL QPF. OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWFALL AND
SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT INDICATE ABOUT A 15:1 RATIO SO FAR.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY STEADILY DECREASE OVER CENTRAL AND SWRN
PENN...WITH THE STEADIEST /AND MDT TO OCNLY HEAVY/ SNOW BECOMING
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...AT THE
NW EDGE OF A FAIRLY PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH 1-2SM VSBYS THROUGH
00-02Z ACROSS ERN YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTY...BEFORE
ENDING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE.
AS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING WIND...AND LOWERING WIND CHILLS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COMPLICATING
MATTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS /RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR. A FEW SPOTS IN OUR
FAR SE CWA COULD SEE 9 OR 10 INCHES.
PLEASE REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. SEVERAL
REPORTS OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE COME IN FROM YORK AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS
SO FAR.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOUR WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN TIER...TEENS THROUGHOUT MOST OF CENTRAL
PENN...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SE METRO AREAS.
THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE FROM NW TO SE EARLY
TONIGHT...AS DEEP DRY/FRIGID AIR PUSHES INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHALLOW STRATO CU AND -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.
BUFKIT NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO AROUND 25KTS BY THIS EVENING
EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK ABOUT 20-30 DEG OVERNIGHT TO A MORE NORTH
TO NNW DIRECTION /AND INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5-10
KTS/. GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NW. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND BITTER COLD TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO 15F IN THE SE TO
AROUND -20F ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND -5F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WESTERN MTNS...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. BUNDLE UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE A BITTER COLD NW FLOW...A FROZEN LK ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW
INVERSION HGT AND BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ABSENCE OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD CREATE BKN STRATOCU AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MCLEAR SKIES APPEAR LIKELY EAST/DOWNWIND
OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850TEMPS OF ARND -20C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM ARND 5 ABV ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO JUST THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX
PERSISTING THRU THE MED RANGE FCST...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF
WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBERTA CLIPPERS
ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY...AND SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THE NEXT
CLIPPER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...BASED ON TIMING OF ALL
MED RANGE MDLS. INCREASING MDL SPREAD MAKES TIMING OF THIRD
SHORTWAVE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...MON/TUE. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF COLD WX MAY COME TO AN END BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO WORK
IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA. HOWEVER COLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM STARTING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
MAIN SNOW BANDS WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE MDT AND LNS
AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAF
PACKAGE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF PENN IN LIGHT SNOW.
PERIODS OF VLIFR ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ACROSS THE KLNS...KMDT AND
KTHV VICINITY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS AS
SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BCMG SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVR THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. THE SNOW WILL BE OF
RELATIVELY LOW WATER CONTENT/FLUFFY GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE BLSN AT MDT/LNS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST AROUND 22/00Z.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVE /AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED/ WITH
CONDS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM PA.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
THUR...MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF -SN.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ056-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ036-
057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
446 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST LATE
TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDY AND FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX WILL RESULT
IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND 8H TEMP ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FIELDS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT/S STEADY AS SHE GOES WITH
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MEAN
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL QPF. OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWFALL AND
SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT INDICATE ABOUT A 15:1 RATIO SO FAR.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY STEADILY DECREASE OVER CENTRAL AND SWRN
PENN...WITH THE STEADIEST /AND MDT TO OCNLY HEAVY/ SNOW BECOMING
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...AT THE
NW EDGE OF A FAIRLY PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH 1-2SM VSBYS THROUGH
00-02Z ACROSS ERN YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTY...BEFORE
ENDING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE.
AS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING WIND...AND LOWERING WIND CHILLS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COMPLICATING
MATTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS /RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR. A FEW SPOTS IN OUR
FAR SE CWA COULD SEE 9 OR 10 INCHES.
PLEASE REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. SEVERAL
REPORTS OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE COME IN FROM YORK AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS
SO FAR.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOUR WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN TIER...TEENS THROUGHOUT MOST OF CENTRAL
PENN...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SE METRO AREAS.
THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE FROM NW TO SE EARLY
TONIGHT...AS DEEP DRY/FRIGID AIR PUSHES INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHALLOW STRATO CU AND -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.
BUFKIT NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO AROUND 25KTS BY THIS EVENING
EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK ABOUT 20-30 DEG OVERNIGHT TO A MORE NORTH
TO NNW DIRECTION /AND INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5-10
KTS/. GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NW. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND BITTER COLD TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO 15F IN THE SE TO
AROUND -20F ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND -5F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WESTERN MTNS...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. BUNDLE UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE A BITTER COLD NW FLOW...A FROZEN LK ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW
INVERSION HGT AND BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ABSENCE OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD CREATE BKN STRATOCU AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MCLEAR SKIES APPEAR LIKELY EAST/DOWNWIND
OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850TEMPS OF ARND -20C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM ARND 5 ABV ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO JUST THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX
PERSISTING THRU THE MED RANGE FCST...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF
WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBERTA CLIPPERS
ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY...AND SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THE NEXT
CLIPPER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...BASED ON TIMING OF ALL
MED RANGE MDLS. INCREASING MDL SPREAD MAKES TIMING OF THIRD
SHORTWAVE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...MON/TUE. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF COLD WX MAY COME TO AN END BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO WORK
IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA. HOWEVER COLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM STARTING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
MAIN SNOW BANDS WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE MDT AND LNS
AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAF
PACKAGE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF PENN IN LIGHT SNOW.
PERIODS OF VLIFR ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ACROSS THE KLNS...KMDT AND
KTHV VICINITY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS AS
SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BCMG SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVR THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. THE SNOW WILL BE OF
RELATIVELY LOW WATER CONTENT/FLUFFY GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE BLSN AT MDT/LNS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST AROUND 22/00Z.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVE /AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED/ WITH
CONDS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM PA.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
THUR...MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF -SN.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ024>028-050-052-056-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ033>036-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
402 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST LATE
TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDY AND FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX WILL RESULT
IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND 8H TEMP ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FIELDS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT/S STEADY AS SHE GOES WITH
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MEAN
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL QPF. OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWFALL AND
SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT INDICATE ABOUT A 15:1 RATIO SO FAR.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY STEADILY DECREASE OVER CENTRAL AND SWRN
PENN...WITH THE STEADIEST /AND MDT TO OCNLY HEAVY/ SNOW BECOMING
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...AT THE
NW EDGE OF A FAIRLY PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH 1-2SM VSBYS THROUGH
00-02Z ACROSS ERN YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTY...BEFORE
ENDING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE.
AS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING WIND...AND LOWERING WIND CHILLS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COMPLICATING
MATTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS /RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR. A FEW SPOTS IN OUR
FAR SE CWA COULD SEE 9 OR 10 INCHES.
PLEASE REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. SEVERAL
REPORTS OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE COME IN FROM YORK AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS
SO FAR.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOUR WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN TIER...TEENS THROUGHOUT MOST OF CENTRAL
PENN...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SE METRO AREAS.
THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE FROM NW TO SE EARLY
TONIGHT...AS DEEP DRY/FRIGID AIR PUSHES INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHALLOW STRATO CU AND -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.
BUFKIT NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO AROUND 25KTS BY THIS EVENING
EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK ABOUT 20-30 DEG OVERNIGHT TO A MORE NORTH
TO NNW DIRECTION /AND INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5-10
KTS/. GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NW. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND BITTER COLD TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO 15F IN THE SE TO
AROUND -20F ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND -5F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WESTERN MTNS...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. BUNDLE UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE A BITTER COLD NW FLOW...A FROZEN LK ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW
INVERSION HGT AND BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ABSENCE OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD CREATE BKN STRATOCU AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MCLEAR SKIES APPEAR LIKELY EAST/DOWNWIND
OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850TEMPS OF ARND -20C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM ARND 5 ABV ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO JUST THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX
PERSISTING THRU THE MED RANGE FCST...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF
WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBERTA CLIPPERS
ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY...AND SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THE NEXT
CLIPPER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...BASED ON TIMING OF ALL
MED RANGE MDLS. INCREASING MDL SPREAD MAKES TIMING OF THIRD
SHORTWAVE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...MON/TUE. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF COLD WX MAY COME TO AN END BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO WORK
IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA. HOWEVER COLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF PENN IN LIGHT SNOW.
PERIODS OF VLIFR ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ACROSS THE KLNS...KMDT AND
KTHV VICINITY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS AS
SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BCMG SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVR THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. THE SNOW WILL BE OF
RELATIVELY LOW WATER CONTENT/FLUFFY GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE BLSN AT MDT/LNS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST AROUND 22/00Z.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVE /AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED/ WITH
CONDS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM PA.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
THUR...MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF -SN.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ024>028-050-052-056-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ033>036-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
248 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST LATE
TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDY AND FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX WILL RESULT
IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND 8H TEMP ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FIELDS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT/S STEADY AS SHE GOES WITH
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MEAN
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL QPF. OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWFALL AND
SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT INDICATE ABOUT A 15:1 RATIO SO FAR.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY STEADILY DECREASE OVER CENTRAL AND SWRN
PENN...WITH THE STEADIEST /AND MDT TO OCNLY HEAVY/ SNOW BECOMING
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...AT THE
NW EDGE OF A FAIRLY PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH 1-2SM VSBYS THROUGH
00-02Z ACROSS ERN YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTY...BEFORE
ENDING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE.
AS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING WIND...AND LOWERING WIND CHILLS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COMPLICATING
MATTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS /RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR. A FEW SPOTS IN OUR
FAR SE CWA COULD SEE 9 OR 10 INCHES.
PLEASE REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. SEVERAL
REPORTS OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE COME IN FROM YORK AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS
SO FAR.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOUR WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN TIER...TEENS THROUGHOUT MOST OF CENTRAL
PENN...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SE METRO AREAS.
THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE FROM NW TO SE EARLY
TONIGHT...AS DEEP DRY/FRIGID AIR PUSHES INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHALLOW STRATO CU AND -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.
BUFKIT NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO AROUND 25KTS BY THIS EVENING
EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK ABOUT 20-30 DEG OVERNIGHT TO A MORE NORTH
TO NNW DIRECTION /AND INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5-10
KTS/. GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NW. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND BITTER COLD TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO 15F IN THE SE TO
AROUND -20F ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND -5F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WESTERN MTNS...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. BUNDLE UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE A BITTER COLD NW FLOW...A FROZEN LK ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW
INVERSION HGT AND BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ABSENCE OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD CREATE BKN STRATOCU AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MCLEAR SKIES APPEAR LIKELY EAST/DOWNWIND
OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850TEMPS OF ARND -20C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM ARND 5 ABV ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO JUST THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX
PERSISTING THRU THE MED RANGE FCST...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF
WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBERTA CLIPPERS
ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT CLIPPER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY...BASED ON TIMING OF ALL MED RANGE MDLS. INCREASING MDL
SPREAD MAKES TIMING OF THIRD SHORTWAVE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT
PROBABLY MON/TUE. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF COLD
WX MAY COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC
ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF PENN IN LIGHT SNOW.
PERIODS OF VLIFR ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ACROSS THE KLNS...KMDT AND
KTHV VICINITY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS AS
SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BCMG SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVR THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. THE SNOW WILL BE OF
RELATIVELY LOW WATER CONTENT/FLUFFY GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE BLSN AT MDT/LNS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST AROUND 22/00Z.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVE /AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED/ WITH
CONDS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM PA.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
THUR...MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF -SN.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ024>028-050-052-056-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ033>036-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1011 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY EAST OF VIRGINIA
BEACH LATE TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX WILL
RESULT IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND 8H TEMP ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRIMARY CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN TO EXPAND THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO COVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND
WED MORNING...WHERE APPARENT TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE -10 TO -15
RANGE AT TIMES. BIG QUESTION DURING THAT PERIOD WILL BE THE DURATION
OF HIGHER WINDS AND FREQUENCY OF WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AT THE SFC
LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT SLIDES OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...EMPHASIS WILL BE PLACED ON THE SNOWFALL RATES OF
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FAR SERN ZONES OVER AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
13Z RUC INDICATES A PERSISTENT/STRENGTHENING BELT OF STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING DEVELOPING ACROSS LANCASTER...YORK AND THE SERN
HALF OF ADAMS COUNTY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
AREA OF STRONG/DEEP UVVEL SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 30-35DBZ
REFLECTIVITY AND VSBYS AOB 1/4SM MILE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING/MOVING EAST AROUND DUSK.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY...SCENT MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...STEADY LIGHT TO MDT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AND ACCUMULATE
AROUND 1/2 INCH PER HOUR...WHILE NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIGHT
/AOB 1/4 INCH PER HOUR/ WITH VSBYS AVERAGING 1-2SM.
LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
BESIDES THE SNOW...COLD IS THE WORD FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPS TODAY WILL GO PRACTICALLY NOWHERE...HOLDING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN TIER...TEENS THROUGHOUT MOST OF CENTRAL
PENN...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SE METRO AREAS.
BY LATE IN THE DAY...SECONDARY COASTAL LOW IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY JUST E OF VIRGINIA BEACH. DURING THIS TIME FRAME STRONG FGEN
FORCING IS INDICATED BY THE 00Z OPER RUNS ACROSS EXTREME SE
PA...WHERE A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MDL CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS IS
INDICATING A GOOD INSTABILITY SIGNATURE AND POTENTIAL OF SLANTWISE
CONVECTION BANDING ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES BTWN 18Z-00Z WITH A LAYER
OF NEGATIVE EPV LOCATED IN THE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE/POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN UNSETTLING
WIDE RANGE IN THE 03Z SREF PLUMES FOR KLNS /WITH LEQ PRECIP RANGING
FROM 0.05 TO 1.25 INCHES/ AS LATE AS THE 03Z AND 09Z RUNS /WHICH IS
IN THE HEART OF OUR WINT STORM WARNING/...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MEAN QPF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FOR BTWN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE TREND HAS BEEN SLOWLY
UP IN THE SREF/S MEAN LEQ OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
WILL CONSIDER INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY /BY ABOUT 1/2 TO
1 INCH/ ACROSS SOME CENTRAL ZONES AS SOME MDTLY ENHANCED/NARROW FGEN
BANDS DRIFT NORTH BRINGING PERIODS OF 3/4SM SNOW. WILL BE WATCHING
THE RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT CLOSELY IN REGARD TO THIS
MODIFICATION.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH SNOW/WATER RATIOS WITH BULK
OF LIFT OCCURRING WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. SNL/S OF SOMEWHERE
BTWN 15 AND 20 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 10 TO 12 INCHES WHERE
HEAVY SNOW BAND FORMS /MOST LIKELY OVR YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES/.
AS THE SNOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS SE PA LATE TODAY...EXPECT IT TO
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...WHERE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON NORTHERLY FLOW.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WEST OF DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL ALSO
CREATE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA LATE TODAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO ARND 25KTS
BY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...AS
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE WINDS AT 8H QUICKLY BACK TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL PULL IN DRY AIR...BUT IT WILL ALSO BE
BITTERLY COLD. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE 5-10KTS IN THE NORTH BUT
STRONGER IN THE SE. RESULTING WIND CHILLS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
DANGER CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...WHERE
APPARENT TEMPS BTWN 15-20 BELOW ZERO APPEAR LIKELY. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SUSTAINED WCHILLS BLW OUR -15F CRITERIA
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...SO HAVE LEFT THEM
OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST HAVE LOWER ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THUS HAVE HOISTED WCHILL
ADVISORIES.
DESPITE A BITTER COLD NW FLOW...A FROZEN LK ERIE COMBINED WITH
LOW INVERSION HGT AND BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ABSENCE OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD CREATE BKN STRATOCU AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MCLEAR SKIES APPEAR LIKELY EAST/DOWNWIND
OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850TEMPS OF ARND -20C SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM ARND 5 ABV ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO JUST THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX
PERSISTING THRU THE MED RANGE FCST...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF
WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBERTA CLIPPERS
ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT CLIPPER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY...BASED ON TIMING OF ALL MED RANGE MDLS. INCREASING MDL
SPREAD MAKES TIMING OF THIRD SHORTWAVE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT
PROBABLY MON/TUE. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF COLD
WX MAY COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC
ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF PENN IN LIGHT SNOW.
PERIODS OF VLIFR ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ACROSS THE KLNS...KMDT AND
KTHV VICINITY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS SFC PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...BCMG SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVR THE SRN
1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. THE SNOW WILL BE OF LOW WATER CONTENT/FLUFFY
GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE ADDED
BLSN AT MDT/LNS WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST AROUND 22/00Z.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVE/AFTER 00Z/22 WITH CONDS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM
PA.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
THUR...MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF -SN.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ024>028-050-052-056-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ033>036-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPOKANE WA
659 PM PST Wed Jan 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The Idaho Panhandle and portions of northeast Washington will have
a good chance of seeing sunshine on Thursday. Those that see
sunshine on Thursday should do their best to enjoy it. Strong high
pressure will return Thursday night into Friday, and chances are
good that low clouds and fog will return for the weekend. This
dry and stagnant weather pattern is expected through early next
week. The next small chance of precipitation is next Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update this evening was to adjust some min temperatures along with
sky cover. Looking at the models this evening along with cross
sections and time heights for many locations, do not believe there
will be any clearing overnight except for maybe around Omak as
well as the Bonners Ferry/Sandpoint area. So, adjusted sky cover
as well as increased some temperatures. Some locations like Pullman
as well as Winchester were already below their forecasted low, so
dropped them down a degree or two more. Added some fog to the
Spokane areas west of I-90 and the Highway 2 interchange,
including the airport, Airway Heights and west towards Davenport.
Models still showing drier air moving in tomorrow with clearing
expected for most locations. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The low cloud deck has been much slower to dissipate today
than we thought it would be. The stratus lifted a few hundred feet
this morning, but has remained pretty much status quo this afternoon
from Spokane to Pullman to Moses Lake to Wenatchee. The NAM, GFS,
RUC and HRRR have been of little use. The models have not been able
to resolve the inversion and the moisture trapped just below it.
Confidence in the 00z TAFs continues to be low. I began to mix out
the stratus at KCOE, KSFF, KGEG, KPUW and KLWS within a few hours of
the onset of 10-15kt northeast winds in the 850-700mb layer. This is
roughly the elevation of the stratus. Perhaps this will be enough
mixing to break it up. If the ~1000ft deck does disperse this
evening, some shallow fog is a possibility overnight. Airports in
the deep Columbia Basin like Moses Lake and Wenatchee will have the
lowest probability of breaking out of the expansive stratus deck.
Northeast winds at these locations are not down slope and tend to be
less effective dispersing low stable cloud layers. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 25 36 25 28 27 31 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 23 38 27 30 27 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 24 40 28 32 26 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 27 40 28 33 29 36 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 27 40 25 33 26 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 24 38 26 34 28 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 23 39 29 39 29 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 26 34 27 31 27 34 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 34 28 30 28 33 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 26 37 25 30 28 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Coeur d`Alene
Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses
Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan
Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
412 PM PST Wed Jan 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The Idaho Panhandle and portions of northeast Washington will have
a good chance of seeing sunshine on Thursday. Those that see
sunshine on Thursday should do their best to enjoy it. Strong high
pressure will return Thursday night into Friday, and chances are
good that low clouds and fog will return for the weekend. This
dry and stagnant weather pattern is expected through early next
week. The next small chance of precipitation is next Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: Will we have a chance to see the sun
tomorrow? The NAM and GFS models say chances are very good. These
models don`t always resolve inversions well and struggle to handle
the moisture trapped under these stable layers. So...this is a
hard forecast.
The passage of last night`s upper level disturbance did lift the
low cloud deck a few hundred feet in many areas today. Places like
Pullman, Davenport, Wilbur, and Airway Heights were in thick fog
for a good portion of the day yesterday. Today, the fog has mostly
lifted to a low cloud deck. The cloud deck rose partly because the
inversion weakened last night with the arrival of some cooler air
introduced into the 850-700mb layer. The NAM and GFS continue to
cool the mean temperature through this layer tonight as winds
above the inversion become northeasterly. As a result, forecast
sounding mix the low stratus out of north Idaho and northeast
Washington this evening. It would be surprising if the low clouds
dissipated that quickly since very little of the low clouds have
dissipated so far. Perhaps late this evening through tomorrow
morning, there will be enough weakening of the inversion that the
stratus will be able to mix vertically. At least that is the plan.
Not a high confidence forecast. Places that have the best chance
of seeing sun tomorrow will probably be in the Idaho Panhandle,
Okanogan Valley and northeast Washington around Colville,
Republic and Metaline Falls. Wenatchee, Moses Lake and Tri Cities
probably have the lowest chance since clearing will likely spread
from North (or northeast) toward the south. Areas that experience
sunshine tomorrow will warm into the mid 30s to low 40s. Mid
elevations (2500-4000ft) that experience good mixing through the
day could hit mid to upper 40s. /GKoch
Friday through Sunday night: The region will continue to remain
under the influence of a high pressure ridge. Any sort of break
up to the fog and low stratus in the valleys on Thursday is
expected to fill back in by Friday morning. The inversion will
strengthen through Saturday with some warming expected at the 850
mb level. This will likely make it harder for any low clouds that
develop through Friday morning to burn off during the afternoon
Friday and again on Saturday. The inversion does not appear to be
as strong on Sunday, so I left a sliver of hope for some stratus
dissipation during the afternoon. Best chances would be across the
southeastern portion of the forecast area, which would include the
Palouse and L-C Valley. We may see some clearing across the
northeastern valleys into the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene areas, but
chances for any thinning of the stratus does not appear as good
further southwest into the basin. Went mainly persistence with the
temperatures. I did warm up temperatures a bit more across the
southeast on Sunday with the idea that possibly some sun will
shine through in the afternoon. /SVH
Monday through Wednesday night...Monday will likely see one last
day of fog/stratus over many valley locations, but it will also
begin a transition to a more active weather pattern. The ridge
that will have set up along the west coast will begin to break
down, or at least the amplification will get suppressed, leaving
the Inland Northwest in a west-southwest to an eventually a west-
northwest flow aloft. Intermittent shortwaves embedded in the flow
will bring chances for precipitation, but temperatures should
slowly moderate toward normal. This will keep many valleys warm
enough for rain during the afternoon, but the mountains should get
snow. Specific details in the precipitation chances and type can
get worked out in future forecasts. The flow pattern would suggest
that a shadow effect will keep the lee of the Cascades mainly dry.
/ty
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The low cloud deck has been much slower to dissipate today
than we thought it would be. The stratus lifted a few hundred feet
this morning, but has remained pretty much status quo this afternoon
from Spokane to Pullman to Moses Lake to Wenatchee. The NAM, GFS,
RUC and HRRR have been of little use. The models have not been able
to resolve the inversion and the moisture trapped just below it.
Confidence in the 00z TAFs continues to be low. I began to mix out
the stratus at KCOE, KSFF, KGEG, KPUW and KLWS within a few hours of
the onset of 10-15kt northeast winds in the 850-700mb layer. This is
roughly the elevation of the stratus. Perhaps this will be enough
mixing to break it up. If the ~1000ft deck does disperse this
evening, some shallow fog is a possibility overnight. Airports in
the deep Columbia Basin like Moses Lake and Wenatchee will have the
lowest probability of breaking out of the expansive stratus deck.
Northeast winds at these locations are not down slope and tend to be
less effective dispersing low stable cloud layers. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 24 36 25 28 27 31 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 23 38 27 30 27 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 27 40 28 32 26 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 27 40 28 33 29 36 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 21 40 25 33 26 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 24 38 26 34 28 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 23 39 29 39 29 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 26 34 27 31 27 34 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 34 28 30 28 33 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 20 37 25 30 28 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Coeur d`Alene
Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses
Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan
Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE MAY
AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
FEATURES OF NOTE FOR THIS POTENTIAL ARE A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
FIRST IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE LATEST NAM AND RAP HAVE SHIFTED THE
AREA OF THE BEST LIFT A BIT FURTHER SE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ON THE PV
1.5 LAYER...THE BAND OF POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION IS BRIEFLY OVER
THE NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT 21Z...BEFORE PROPAGATING
APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE FROM KILG TO KTTN FOR 00 TO 03Z. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AS
IT IS IN OUR AREA.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY...WITH 850 TO 700MB LAPSE RATES RANGING
FROM 5 TO 7 C/KM AND MU CAPE VALUES OF 20 TO 30 J/KG. HOWEVER...ONE
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
PHL. DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THAT DEVELOPS...IT COULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PA.
ALL THAT SAID...THE HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE DELAWARE
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF PHL FROM ABOUT 23 TO 03Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY LIFT NE THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING AN
ABRUPT END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND THE WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT...COULD SEE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS
SUCH...MAY SEE A FEW PLACES REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND NW NEW JERSEY. HOWEVER...THIS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SONG, DIFFERENT VERSE, AS THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SEVERAL AREAS OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DURG THE EXTENDED PD. IN
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL TO AT
LEAST POTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT THE START OF THE PD, ON FRI, THE HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
AND EXPECT COLD AND DRY WX TO PREVAIL INTO FRI NIGHT. THEN, THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT SEWD AND THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE IN ERN
CAN TO TRACK EWD. ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL MOVE W TO E ACRS THE
AREA DURG SAT. THIS ALBERTA CLIPPER SYS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMS, MAINLY OVER NRN
AREAS.
BEHIND THE CFP, THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEN ANOTHER VERY WK LOW IS FCST TO MOVE OUT OF THE MID MS VLY AND
TRACK EWD TWD THE MID ATLC FOR SUN NIGHT INTO ERLY MON. THE MDLS
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYS THIS CYCLE. THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE NWD SYS AND EVEN LESS QPF OVER OUR AREA.
SO FOR NOW, WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS, WITHOUT CHANGES, BUT IF THESE
TREND CONTINUE THEY COULD PSBLY BE LOWERED MORE OR REMOVED ENTIRELY.
ONCE THIS LOW MOVES BY TO THE NORTH ANOTHER MASSIVE HIGH WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND COVER ABOUT 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WX RATHER QUIET BUT COLD THRU MIDWEEK.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH BELOW NRML. THE OPTIMISTIC TEMP
FCST HAS SOME AREAS GETTING ABV FREEZING ON SAT AND MON. THE
PESSIMISTIC TEMP FCST KEEPS MOST EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING THRU THE
ENTIRE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ONE EXCEPTION IS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA...INCLUDING KABE AND
KRDG...WHERE CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO OVC020 BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...BUT
THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SHSN BETWEEN
21 AND 03Z. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE BEST LIFT WITH THE
LATEST RUNS FURTHER TO THE SE. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN PA MAY INHIBIT ANY SHSN FROM DEVELOPING
THERE. THUS NOW EXPECT THE HIGHEST RISK OF SHSN...AND WITH IT MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...AT KILG AND KRDG. THERE IS SOME RISK OF
THE SHSN MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS KPHL.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY AND LIGHT...THOUGH 10G19KT IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 23Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
PSBLY IFR IN SNOW SHWRS AS A CDFNT TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST. ALSO,
GUSTY SW TO W WIND EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. MDT CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUN NIGHT AND MON...VFR EARLY WITH POSSIBLE LOWER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHWRS.
THIS SYS HAS TRENDED FURTHER N THIS CYCLE AND THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SNOW SHWRS WOULD BE OVER NRN AREA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT. THOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER...WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ON THE BAY...WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT THIS EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
BEFORE DECIDING ON AN SCA OR NOT.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ICE ACCRETION RATES ABOVE
THE CURRENT 0.1 TO 0.2 IN/HR TODAY OR TONIGHT. THUS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE NEEDING A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH NW WIND GUSTS REACHING AROUND
30 KNOTS.
FRI NIGHT...CONDS MAY DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR A TIME.
SAT...A CFP IS EXPECTED, WITH THE SW FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE LOOK
PROBABLE, WITH SEAS INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY AS WELL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IN THE 15Z- 20Z SATURDAY AFTN
TIME-FRAME IN THE STILL VERY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FOR THE ATLC
SNJ AND DEL WATERS.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...DECREASING WIND FROM GALE TO SCA AND SHOULD BE SUB
ADVISORY BY LATER SUN. SEAS WILL LIKELY RESPOND IN KIND.
MON...ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION AND AREA WATERS INTO
MON, WITH SCA LEVELS EXPECTED AND A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
FREEZING SPRAY OF VARYING RATES IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEASONALLY..KILG AND KPHL ARE NOW RANKED TOP 25 SNOWFALL THROUGH
AT LEAST 120 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING.
KPHL FOR JANUARY IS NOW TOP 5 ALL TIME SNOWFALL DATING BACK TO 1872.
KPHL JAN SNOWFALL RANKING
1 33.9 1996
2 28.9 1918
3 25.2 2011
4 23.4 1978
5 22.5 2014
6 21.5 1935
7 20.0 1893
8 19.7 1961
9 16.1 1912
10 16.0 1966
THE RANKING BOTH SEASONALLY AND MONTHLY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AS
SOME OF THE CLIMATE WEEKLY INFORMATION HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 WEEKS. COLDER THAN
NORMAL AND POSSIBLE SNOW EVENTS.
VULNERABLE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WE ARE FCSTG TO BE
APPROACHED WITHIN 2 DEGREES.
1/28
KRDG 2 2005
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
241 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
AS OF 3 AM CST...2 AM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLOUDY. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP UNDER THE DENSE CLOUD COVER...ONLY REACHING
THE LOW 10S TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WSR-88D RADAR DATA
INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST COLORADO. SO FAR AT
GOODLAND...ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN RECEIVED BUT SNOWFALL
RATES HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO AN HOUR OR TWO AGO.
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...MOVING SOUTH. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND TODAY...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
PRESSING SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SNOWFALL SHOULD
QUICKLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING AND HAVE COMPLETELY EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z...NOON CST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT BUT ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SUN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
20S. AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE TODAY
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
REGARDING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE LATEST RUNS OF CONSSHORT AND THE HRRR SHOW THE LOW AT
KMCK AROUND -1. WITH WEAKENING WINDS...THERE ARE SOME DOUBTS THAT WE
WILL REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE AND
IF CRITERIA IS MET...IT WILL BE MARGINAL. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE
ADVISORY RUNNING AS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE WE REACH CRITERIA AT A
FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS REMAIN HIGHER.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY INCREASE IN
SPEED OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AS CUSTOMARY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...SOME OF THE
LOWER LYING AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO GO CALM BRIEFLY WILL BE ABLE TO
DROP LIKE A ROCK BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN ONCE THE WINDS RETURN. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO MID TEENS ARE
ADVERTISED.
A DRASTIC FLIP BACK TO WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850 MB MOVING IN BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD RECEDE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST. MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED IN SPREAD SOME FOR
FRIDAY BUT AM CONFIDENT IN THE WARMER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ANOTHER 700 MB JET OF
WINDS WILL NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
MIXING...STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE
YET AGAIN. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...MORE INFO ON THIS BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE AGAIN...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS
FOR SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN FRIDAY. ALSO...HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...KEEPING THE HUMIDITIES SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR MASS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND
ALLBLEND GAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY. DECIDED RAIN
OR SNOW FOR THE WEATHER GRIDS GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WET BULB TEMPERATURES
WOULD LIKELY BE AROUND OR BELOW ZERO MAKING SNOW MOST LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO GLD THROUGH ABOUT 10Z WITH
A TRANSITION THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF
BETWEEN 10-12Z. AFTER 12Z...GLD WILL BE VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER
SUNSET.
AT MCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER 11Z AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. SOME OF THE
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE CANADIAN AND THE NAM...INCREASE DEWPOINTS
DURING THE DAY INTO THE 20S AND 30S. SIMPLY DO NOT BELIEVE THIS
BASED ON INDICATIONS FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE FACT THE AIR IS
COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL FOR
DEWPOINTS WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE DRY AIR MUCH BETTER. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN. DAYTIME
MIXING SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE STRONGER WINDS AND BRING THE
GUSTS DOWN. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH. THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS THAT STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
BEFORE A WARNING. FIRST...POTENTIAL CLOUDS MOVING IN THE AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES IN. SECOND...ANY POTENTIAL SNOW COVER
REMAINING COULD PREVENT HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING OFF AS MUCH AS
CURRENTLY THOUGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ079>081.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1104 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST WED JAN 22 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A 505DM CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG PV HEIGHT ANOMALY IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGRESSING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING SOUTH
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
REGARDING PRECIP...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS/SATELLITE IN LINE WITH INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST CHANCES 03-09Z PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. I DID BUMP POPS UP A LITTLE TO CATEGORICAL (80)
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/UPSLOPE
WIND/CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED. MODELS STILL FAVORING GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND GENERALLY ONE HALF IN OR LESS THE FURTHER EAST IN THE
CWA. MODELS HAVE SPED UP EXIT OF PRECIP IN THE NORTH WITH VERY
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTH WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ARCTIC AIR MASS ADVECTS SOUTH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OF -15F OR LESS ARE ADVERTISED TO ADVECT INTO THE
NORTHEAST...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. IN FACT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS MY CURRENT FORECAST LOW OF -7F COULD BE OPTIMISTIC FOR
MCCOOK. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
REGARDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE
WILL SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 F RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DESPITE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. I
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WC ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA AND THE FIRST TWO
TIER OF OUR NW KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THESE
CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE CWA COULD STILL END UP BEING CLOSE
DEPENDING ON WIND/SKY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDDAY (POSSIBLY
EARLIER)...WITH A DRY/COLD DAY EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS 20-25F WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS SLOW TO PULL EAST. AT LEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT (10 MPH OR LESS) WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND BRIEF
COOL DOWNS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND ONE FRONT...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HOWEVER...COULD NOT REACH A CONSENSUS FOR A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ATTM. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME SO NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THIS PERIOD WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN WINDS INCREASE TO BREEZY/WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT RH VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR
NOW. MONDAY WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
COLD SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO GLD THROUGH ABOUT 10Z WITH
A TRANSITION THROUGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF
BETWEEN 10-12Z. AFTER 12Z...GLD WILL BE VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER
SUNSET.
AT MCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER 11Z AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 20Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1217 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...AND SFC OBS INDICATED THAT THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW HAD MOVED INTO NW LOWER MICHIGAN.
THE DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG NRLY FLOW
ACROSS THE PARTIALLY FROZEN WRN LAKE WAS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MODERATE
TO HEAVY LES. AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY HAVE BEEN EVEN GREATER WITHOUT
THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER. A HEAVIER LES BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE MESO-LOW OVER SOUTH CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WAS
ALSO MOVING INTO THE NRN KEWEENAW PENINSULA. HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO DROP TO THE SOUTH THROUGH BARAGA AND
MARQUETTE COUNTIES BTWN 05Z-09Z BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH
(1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES) ALONG WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN
NORTH WINDS AND BLSN. SINCE THE BAND SHOULD BE MORE
TRANSIENT...OVERALL SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES WERE UPGRADED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS OVER GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE SNOW REPORTS
RANGED FROM 2-4 INCHES AT IRONWOOD TO 5-6 INCHES AT ROCKLAND. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW HAS FALLEN SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE DROPPED VSBY AOB 1/4SM IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE EXPOSED TERRAIN IN THE
KEWEENAW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALSO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
OVERALL...THE MAIN STORY IS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS...AND LOW WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THIS WEEK MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE
INITIAL PASSING OF THE LARGER SCALE LOW PRESSURE. ORIGINAL THINKING
WAS THAT THE MESO LOW WOULD SEND A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE 6Z AND 12Z RUNS
SENT THIS BAND FURTHER NORTH INTO THE KEWEENAW DURING THIS TIME
FRAME/WHICH HAPPENS TO BE CORRECT PER RECENT OBS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE LOW AND THE APPROACHING
HIGH HAS BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. BEST ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT/SLIGHT RISE AND FALL COUPLET IS OVER THE KEWEENAW BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SINKING INTO NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUNTY/BARAGA LATE TONIGHT...AND INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE/ALGER
COUNTIES TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS HAVE
DETERIORATED ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS A RESULT OF THESE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH VISIBILITY OVER THE KEWEENAW DOWN TO 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...AND EXTENSIVE BLOWING SNOW AS
OF 1930Z. KIWD WAS EXPERIENCING VISIBILITY OF A 1/2 TO 1/4 OF A MILE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WERE OVERALL LIGHT.
OBSERVERS REPORTED LOTS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW BECAUSE OF THE
WINDS. KEPT THE OVERALL TREND AND SIMILAR SNOW TOTALS FROM THE MID
SHIFT FORECAST...BUT DELAYED THINGS BY ABOUT 3 HOURS AS THE 12Z RUNS
BROUGHT THINGS IN A LITTLE SLOWER. KEPT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES
FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/SOUTHERN HOUGHTON/BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW. THOUGHT
ABOUT PUTTING A WARNING UP FOR BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES...AS MODELS
VARIED QUITE A BIT ON QPF AND THEY NOW BRING THE WORST OF THE
CONDITIONS INTO MARQUETTE CITY TOWARDS THE MORNING COMMUTE.
HOWEVER...TRENDED IN THE MIDDLE FOR AMOUNTS FOR NOW...AND ONLY HAVE
3 TO 6 INCHES TOTAL IN FOR MOST THE COUNTIES. WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS MORNING FOR THESE AREAS.
BARAGA/NORTHERN MARQUETTE COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE MOST OF THIS LATE
AT NIGHT...WHEN IMPACTS ARE NOT AS HIGH. STILL...LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURON MOUNTAINS/HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -12F TO NEAR 2F ABOVE...AND
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE MENTIONED WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -20F TO -30F IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
AND PUT UP A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR IRON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES.
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WILL BE LIGHTER...SO DID NOT INCLUDE
MUCH MORE THAN A BRIEF MENTION OF LOW WIND CHILLS IN ALGER COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH RDGG OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA AND BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CONTINENT INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL ENSURE
THAT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO FEATURED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE MAINLY
NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND FRI...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BE ENDING OVER THE FAR NE CWA AS WINDS BACK SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. QUICK MOISTENING OF MID-LVLS ALONG WITH
MODERATE MID-LVL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 280-285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOC WITH CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD DUSTING
WEST TO MAYBE AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW EAST LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRI EVENING WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPS INTO SATURDAY. THE OTHER MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE NW-WNW SNOWBELTS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SATURDAY. AS THE POLAR VORTEX DESCENDS TO JAMES
BAY SATURDAY MORNING...8H TEMPS FALLING TO -25C TO -28C OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN POOR SNOW GROWTH AND SMALL SNOWFLAKE
SIZE FOR LES AS THE DGZ WILL BE SQUASHED NEAR THE LAKE SFC. THE
COMBINATION OF POOR SNOW GROWTH AND LIMITED FETCH DUE TO EXTENSIVE
ICE COVER WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MINIMAL LES ACCUMULATION OVER THE
WRN COUNTIES. LONGER FETCH OF OPEN WATER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF LES ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE EVENT
FOR THE ERN COUNTIES. NW WINDS GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS INDICATED BY MODEL FCST SNDGS
WILL ALSO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW OVER ERN
COUNTIES.
WITH CAA TAKING PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...NOT EXPECTING HIGH
TEMPS TO RISE MUCH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY SINGLE DIGITS
WEST TO AROUND 12F EAST...WITH LIKELY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS. WIND CHILLS DURING THE NOQUEMANON SKI MARATHON IN MQT
ON SATURDAY COULD APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT OVER ERN COUNTIES AND MAY
BE ENHANCED BY INCREASED LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE FROM LAND BREEZES OFF
UPPER MI AND ONTARIO. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THEN INTO SRN WI/NRN IL EARLY SUN WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE
EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SINGLE DIGIT BLO ZERO
READINGS. INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ASSOC WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A BIT TOWARD SUNRISE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW SURGE OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR
IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY MORNINGS CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH 8H TEMPS
FALLING TO -28C TO -30C BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS SUN AFTERNOON AND
BITTER COLD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER N-NW SNOWBELTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPEN WATER UPSTREAM. DGZ WILL BE
NONEXISTENT SO MAIN IMPACT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE REDUCED VSBY
DUE TO SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE. LES BANDS WILL SHIFT MORE OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES MON INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK MORE WNW. LOW TEMPS SUN
NIGHT AND MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST TO MID TO UPPER TEENS BLO ZERO OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST ALONG THE WI BORDER. NW GRAD WIND OF AROUND 10 MPH
AHEAD OF STRONG 1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ERN MT AND THE
DAKOTAS COMBINED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPS WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO DANGEROUS LEVELS DURING NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT WIND CHILL READINGS DURING THESE PERIODS TO DIP TO 20 TO 25
BELOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO WEST TO SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO EAST.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFYING
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH 8H TEMPS RISING TO -15 TO -17C BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEN TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY AND
8H TEMPS RISE DECREASING OVER WATER INSTABILITY. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPS
WILL TO REMAIN BELOW ZERO TUE NIGHT BUT HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR TO 10 TO
15 ABOVE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS OF 20-30
KNOTS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE BLSN ARE LEADING TO VLIFR CONDITIONS AT
CMX WITH VSBY DOWN TO 1/4SM. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT AS BOTH THE WIND AND SNOW DIMINISH. THE LINGERING LES
WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON AND IWD BUT MAY LINGER AT CMX.
IWD...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS AND BLSN HAVE DIMINISHED...THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO KEEP VSBY IN THE IFR RANGE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...AS WINDS BACK AND HIGH PRES BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVED TO
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME WRLY.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHEN A
HEAVIER SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A MESO LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MARQUETTE COUNTY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO VLIFR BY 08Z...AS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY LATE
MORNING...AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND THE LES MOVES TO THE EAST. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME WRLY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
GALE WARNINGS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST GALES 35 TO 45 KNOTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS...A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION AND A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS AND BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA THURSDAY
MORNING INTO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
GALES TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE PARENT LOW
MOVES INTO QUEBEC...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30
KNOTS. LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NORTH-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS LAKE SUPERIOR IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE LOW OVER
QUEBEC AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.
WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHWEST...GENERALLY
BELOW 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR MIZ002-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263>266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLB
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MCD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
345 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TODAY...AND WINDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY MORNING WERE NOT TRENDING AS LOW AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE RUC13 MODEL H925 WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST AT AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA (WHERE THE ARCTIC HIGH AXIS WAS SITUATED) THE RUC13 WAS
SHOWING WEST WINDS AT 5 MPH. THIS WAS APPARENTLY ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP
SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
CREATE JUST ENOUGH MIXING SO THAT TEMPERATURES WERE NOT BOTTOMING
OUT AS THEY WOULD IN CALM CONDITIONS.
THAT SAID...WIND CHILLS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO AT 3 AM
CST. THUS WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WARNING SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE AND DO
NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES WITH WIND CHILL HEADLINES...AND WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...REACHING IOWA/KANSAS BY EVENING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA THIS
MORNING TO THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
WINDS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH.
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND A
QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED - MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT (AN INCH OR LESS)...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT RECOVERING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE
ZERO TO 5 TO 15 ABOVE CENTRAL AND 15 TO 25 IN THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM HIGHS TODAY WITH PLENTY OF MIXING
AND SINCE THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE.
THIS WILL SET UP FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
A CLIPPER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY GENERATING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL
GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE GENERALLY ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF
HIGHWAY 52...AND GENERALLY ALL SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY 52. AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION
SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD FRIDAY EVENING IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
BY SATURDAY...A BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM MINOT TO ROLLA TO
JAMESTOWN...AND FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM CROSBY TO GARRISON TO
BISMARCK.
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD GENERATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS STATEWIDE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT IS A DAY 4
FORECAST...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING WATCH HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
BY MONDAY...DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS
FROM 25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE STATE.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
PATTERN. THE ECMWF PROGS ANOTHER CLIPPER TO AFFECT THE STATE WHEREAS
THE GFS KEEPS THE CLIPPER AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
ROCKIES. WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH AND INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT 06Z IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z...AND TO IOWA/MISSOURI
BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA TO HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST...THEN INCREASE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20
KTS...THEN TURN WESTERLY AFT 00Z. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN VFR CIGS MOVE IN MAINLY AFT 00Z. WIND
CHILLS TO 50 BELOW 06Z-15Z WILL PRESENT A HAZARD TO SURFACE
OPERATIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ001>005-010>013-018>023-025-033>037-042-045>048-050-051.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ009-017-031-032-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
AT MIDNIGHT CST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. CALM WINDS CENTRAL...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES WERE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED
TO 5 TO 15 BELOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
RUGBY AND TIOGA REPORTING 18 BELOW. WIND CHILLS WERE MOSTLY IN THE
20 TO 30 BELOW RANGE...WITH RUGBY REPORTING THE LOWEST AT 38 BELOW.
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO AND WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 50 BELOW. THE ONLY CHANGES WAS IN
SLIGHT HOURLY TEMP/WIND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
AT 9 PM CST...THE RAP MODEL PLACES THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF THE H850 CIRCULATION IS AROUND
STANLEY. THIS PLACES A NORTHERLY H850 GRADIENT OF 30 KTS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH UNDER WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY APPROACHING 20 BELOW DEVILS
LAKE BASIN TO RUGBY THIS WILL BE PLENTY TO LOWER THE WIND CHILLS
TO 40 BELOW OR COLDER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS TO REACH THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY AS IS TYPICAL FOR ARCTIC AIR EVENTS. CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE RAPID COOLING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. NOTHING TO STOP
THIS TREND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE A
COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TO 30 BELOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THIS SETUP DELIVERS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOME OF ITS COLDEST TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER IN SOME AREAS LIKE THE WEST
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STAY A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED.
WIND CHILLS IN THE COLDEST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 40 TO 55
BELOW ZERO. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO
A WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST UP TO WILLIAMS
COUNTY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TOMORROW AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD START SOMETIME AFTER 12 UTC.
THUS POSSIBLE HEADLINES COULD BE TAKEN OUT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS CONDITIONS WARM UP.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
AN ACTIVE EARLY LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS
AFFECTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST WARM
FRONT/COLD FRONT CLIPPER IS SLATED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THE SECOND SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES FORM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG
SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IS REFLECTED ACROSS THE WEST WITH H85
TEMPS RISING TO +4C TO +6C BY 18Z FRIDAY. BETWEEN 18Z FRIDAY AND 00Z
SATURDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH NORTH AND EAST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AND
SPREADING SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION EITHER
A RAIN/SNOW PRECIPITATION REGIME AS PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE
TRANSITION ZONE/WARM SECTOR IS MEAGER. WITH A QUICK SURGE TO H85
TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 30S
THERE WILL BE A QUICK TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN. THERE COULD BE A
NARROW/BRIEF AREA OF A WINTRY MIX...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD WITH THIS IDEA. FOR THIS IS UNCERTAIN AND
WILL ADJUST IF NECESSARY AS WE GET CLOSER. ANOTHER PRESSURE RISE OF
7 TO 10MB/6HR ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD AIR ADVECTION POCKET OF
-10C/12HR WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM FRIDAYS EVENT WILL
RESIDE MAINLY IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT CLIPPER THEN RIDES ALONG THE FRONT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
MORE EXPANSIVE AND STRONGER 6HR PRESSURE RISE OF 16-18MB/6HR MOVING
THROUGH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SNOW RECEIVED SATURDAY/SUNDAY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CONCERN FOR BLOWING SNOW AND MUCH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. WIND CHILL VALUES
BETWEEN 25 AND 38 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST.
FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 1040MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA MONDAY WILL DRIFT TO NEAR ABERDEEN BY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT VERY COLD
WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 15 ABOVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZERO. THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL LOOKS TO ACHIEVE WIND CHILL CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A RETURN
FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT 06Z IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z...AND TO IOWA/MISSOURI
BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA TO HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST...THEN INCREASE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20
KTS...THEN TURN WESTERLY AFT 00Z. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN VFR CIGS MOVE IN MAINLY AFT 00Z. WIND
CHILLS TO 50 BELOW 06Z-15Z WILL PRESENT A HAZARD TO SURFACE
OPERATIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ001>005-010>013-018>023-025-033>037-042-045>048-050-051.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ009-017-031-032-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM/MM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
359 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT TO THE COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST IN A NEVER-ENDING RUN OF ARCTIC COLD FRONTS HAS CROSSED
THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED. ONE OF THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES THIS
MORNING WAS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE SKY GRIDS...AS A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF CLEARING DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY THE RAP SEEMED
TO BE PICKING UP ON THE SCOURING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SO IT
WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO LUMBER EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN AXIS CROSSING THE ILN CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
SNOW...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHEASTERN ILN CWA.
ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY) WILL BE VERY LIGHT. FLURRIES WERE KEPT IN
THE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING...WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE ACTUALLY NOT BEEN QUITE AS COLD AS
INITIALLY FORECAST...BUT THE COLD ADVECTION IS STILL WELL ON ITS
WAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO VERIFY
EASILY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH THAT SAID...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED CWA-WIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...IN ORDER TO ALLOW THE HEADLINE TO LAST THROUGH
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND CHILLS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UNLIKELY TO RISE ABOVE
ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BE UNDERGOING A TRANSITION ON FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING BRIEFLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN CWA FIRMLY INTO A RELATIVELY
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...FROM A STARTING POINT OF NEAR ZERO
DEGREES. SUFFICE TO SAY...IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES ANY HIGHER THAN THE TEENS.
FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...VERY STRONG
AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN A MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A THOUSAND MILES SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY...AS FORCING INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LARGE PV ANOMALY MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A FAST-MOVING BUT POTENT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE ILN CWA. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CROSS THE CWA IN ONLY ABOUT SIX
HOURS (MAXIMIZED AROUND 09Z SATURDAY MORNING). QPF AMOUNTS ARE ON
THE ORDER OF 0.15-0.25 INCHES...BUT THE WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR RATIOS TO BE ESPECIALLY HIGH. AN
EARLY (AND VERY PRELIMINARY) FORECAST OF 2 INCHES (SOUTHWEST ILN CWA)
TO 4 INCHES (NORTHEAST ILN CWA) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT...PUTTING THIS EVENT INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY AT FIRST
GUESS. MOST OF THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO FALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. THE KEY ELEMENT WILL
BE THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST (AND THEN EAST) INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL SPREAD ON THE
STRENGTH...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE LAST COUPLE SLATES OF
MODEL RUNS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN OHIO OR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS SORT OF TRACK WOULD MAKE
IT HARD TO FIND FAVOR IN A PARTICULARLY SNOWY FORECAST FOR THE ILN
CWA...AND IN FACT...THE WARMING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW MIGHT
BE ENOUGH TO PUSH PARTS OF THE CWA ABOVE FREEZING. OF ALL
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST...EVEN GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM IS THE ONE PRESENTING THE GREATEST CHALLENGE IN TERMS OF
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE LARGE SCALE CHANGES WERE NOT MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN OF SIGNIFICANT COLD BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING WELL INTO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND A MENTION OF THIS COLD
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
COLDER AIR AND HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS.
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE INTRICACIES OF THE FLOW IN THE LAST DAY OR TWO
OF THE FORECAST. GFS IS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW THURSDAY
WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN IS NOT. TEMPERATURES TUES NIGHT COULD BE MUCH
COLDER IF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST THROUGH ALL TAF SITES BUT
KCMH/KLCK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCOMPANYING IT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KTS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VSBYS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. VSBYS IN THE BAND OF
SNOW HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IFR WITH SOME BRIEF DROPS TO LIFR IN THE
HEAVIEST BURSTS OF SNOW. CIGS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN MVFR WITH A
QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST...THE REGION WILL SEE CONTINUED 20
TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES TO
BE IMPACTED BY ANY SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT EXTEND. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND ONLY LIGHT ACTIVITY EXPECTED HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR
ALL TAF SITES BUT KCVG/KLUK.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>044-051>053-060>062.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ045-046-
054>056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/HATZOS
AVIATION...KURZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1014 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. AN EAST
WEST COLD FRONT FROM BOSTON TO BUFFALO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MORE LOW
PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
ARCTIC HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...BANDS OF BRIEFLY MDT TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED LATER
THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY N OF KPHL WITH 1/2-1 INCH AMTS IN AN HR OR OR
LESS. THIS PER 10Z HRRR AND RAP AS WELL VERY LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES...
DECENT BL RH OVER 50 PCT AND COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. NOT SURE
OF BEST AXIS FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...THO MASS FIELDS OF VORTICITY
AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST VCNTY KMPO-KABE ESEWD THRU KSMQ AND KTTN.
FROM THE 630 AM DISCUSSION BELOW.
FIRST IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE LATEST NAM AND RAP HAVE SHIFTED THE
AREA OF THE BEST LIFT A BIT FURTHER SE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ON THE PV
1.5 LAYER...THE BAND OF POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION IS BRIEFLY OVER
THE NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT 21Z...BEFORE PROPAGATING
APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE FROM KILG TO KTTN FOR 00 TO 03Z. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AS
IT IS IN OUR AREA.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY...WITH 850 TO 700MB LAPSE RATES RANGING
FROM 5 TO 7 C/KM AND MU CAPE VALUES OF 20 TO 30 J/KG. HOWEVER...ONE
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
PHL. DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THAT DEVELOPS...IT COULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY LIFT NE THROUGH THE EVENING
BRINGING AN ABRUPT END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND THE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...COULD SEE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...MAY SEE A FEW PLACES REACH WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND NW NEW
JERSEY. HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES.
FRIDAY...A COLDER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NW WIND GUST 20 MPH
IN THE MORNING BACK TO W DURING THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SONG, DIFFERENT VERSE, AS THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SEVERAL AREAS OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DURG THE EXTENDED PD. IN
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL TO AT
LEAST POTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT THE START OF THE PD, THE HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE AND EXPECT
COLD AND DRY WX TO PREVAIL INTO FRI NIGHT. THEN, THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT A BIT SEWD AND THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE IN ERN CAN TO
TRACK EWD. ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL MOVE W TO E ACRS THE AREA DURG
SAT. THIS ALBERTA CLIPPER SYS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMS, MAINLY OVER NRN AREAS.
BEHIND THE CFP, THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEN ANOTHER VERY WK LOW IS FCST TO MOVE OUT OF THE MID MS VLY AND
TRACK EWD TWD THE MID ATLC FOR SUN NIGHT INTO ERLY MON. THE MDLS
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYS THIS CYCLE. THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE NWD SYS AND EVEN LESS QPF OVER OUR AREA.
SO FOR NOW, WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS, WITHOUT CHANGES, BUT IF THESE
TREND CONTINUE THEY COULD PSBLY BE LOWERED MORE OR REMOVED ENTIRELY.
ONCE THIS LOW MOVES BY TO THE NORTH ANOTHER MASSIVE HIGH WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND COVER ABOUT 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WX RATHER QUIET BUT COLD THRU MIDWEEK.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH BELOW NRML. THE OPTIMISTIC TEMP
FCST HAS SOME AREAS GETTING ABV FREEZING ON SAT AND MON. THE
PESSIMISTIC TEMP FCST KEEPS MOST EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING THRU THE
ENTIRE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR BECOMING CIGS AOA 3500 FT THIS AFTN WITH SCT BRIEF IFR
CONDS IN IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS (BANDS OF)...MOSTLY N OF KPHL. WEST
WINDS G 20 KT.
TONIGHT...SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT WITH REMAINING SCT IFR CONDS IN SNOW
SHOWERS PROGRESSING SEWD VCNTY KPNE-KPHL-KMIV-KACY AND KILG 00Z-06Z
TIME FRAME WITH A WSHIFT TO NW AND A FEW G15-20KT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SEWD THRU THE TAF SITES.
FRIDAY...VFR. NW WIND G 20 KT IN THE MORNING BACK TO W DURING THE
AFTN. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
PSBLY IFR IN SNOW SHWRS AS A CDFNT TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST. ALSO,
GUSTY SW TO W WIND EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. MDT CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUN NIGHT AND MON...VFR EARLY WITH POSSIBLE LOWER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHWRS.
THIS SYS HAS TRENDED FURTHER N THIS CYCLE AND THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SNOW SHWRS WOULD BE OVER NRN AREA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT. THOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER...WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ON THE BAY...WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT THIS EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
BEFORE DECIDING ON AN SCA OR NOT.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
MARGINAL MDT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURING IN PLACES TODAY...NOT QUITE
ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
ICE IS FORMING ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE AND DELAWARE BAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND THICKENSS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH NW WIND GUSTS REACHING AROUND
30 KNOTS.
FRI NIGHT...CONDS MAY DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR A TIME.
SAT...A CFP IS EXPECTED, WITH THE SW FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE LOOK
PROBABLE, WITH SEAS INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY AS WELL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IN THE 15Z- 20Z SATURDAY AFTN
TIME-FRAME IN THE STILL VERY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FOR THE ATLC
SNJ AND DEL WATERS.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...DECREASING WIND FROM GALE TO SCA AND SHOULD BE SUB
ADVISORY BY LATER SUN. SEAS WILL LIKELY RESPOND IN KIND.
MON...ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION AND AREA WATERS INTO
MON, WITH SCA LEVELS EXPECTED AND A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
FREEZING SPRAY OF VARYING RATES IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEASONALLY..KILG AND KPHL ARE NOW RANKED TOP 25 SNOWFALL THROUGH
AT LEAST 120 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING.
KPHL FOR JANUARY IS NOW TOP 5 ALL TIME SNOWFALL DATING BACK TO 1872.
KPHL JAN SNOWFALL RANKING
1 33.9 1996
2 28.9 1918
3 25.2 2011
4 23.4 1978
5 22.5 2014
6 21.5 1935
7 20.0 1893
8 19.7 1961
9 16.1 1912
10 16.0 1966
THE RANKING BOTH SEASONALLY AND MONTHLY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AS
THE LAGGED ENSEMBLE CFSV2 FOR THE PAST 9 DAYS (SINCE THE 13TH) HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 4 WEEKS (THRU AT LEAST MID FEBRUARY). COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
POSSIBLE SNOW EVENTS. AM FAR FROM SURE WHATS DRIVING THE PATTERN...
IT APPEARS TO BE COMBINED -EPO AND THE CURRENTLY STRONG +PNA.
N ATLC BLOCKING (-NAO) HAS BEEN NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE MOST OF THE
WINTER SO FAR... AND SO IT APPEARS THE NAO HAS NOT BEEN MUCH..IF
ANY..FACTOR IN THIS WINTERS COLD.
IN ANY CASE...THE DEVELOPING PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN (VARIABILITY
DOES ALLOW FOR A DAY OR 2 PER WEEK OF NORMAL TEMPS) ASSURES US OF
A WELL BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY AVG TEMPS HERE IN THE MOUNT HOLLY FCST
AREA FOR JANUARY AND PROBABLY THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FIRST
HALF OF FEBRUARY AT LEAST MODELED BY THE CFSV2. THIS FITS THE CPC
DAY8-14 AND MONTHLY OUTLOOKS AS CURRENTLY POSTED THIS MORNING.
VULNERABLE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WE ARE FCSTG TO BE
APPROACHED WITHIN 2 DEGREES ARE LISTED BELOW.
WHILE WE THOUGHT KACY WOULD GET CLOSE TO RER LOW THIS MORNING...THE
WIND MIXED JUST ENOUGH ALL NIGHT AND THE LOW THERE WAS 6 ABOVE...
WHILE IT DROPPED TO 5 BELOW AT KMIV AT THE LAST MINUTE VIA LATE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
1/28
KRDG 2 2005
THE NEXT 10 DAYS...
00Z/23 GFS/ECMWF OP FCSTS HAVE TEMPS 15 BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW-
FRIDAY THE 24TH, AND THEN AGAIN TUE AND WED OF NEXT WEEK (28 AND
29).
FOR KPHL...THE JANUARY AVG TEMP IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE NEAR
28.1 OR 4.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...NOT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE 60 DAYS
OF PERSISTENT EXCESSIVE COLD OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS BUT STILL
SIGNIFICANT. SINCE LATE NOVEMBER...OUR AVG TEMP IN THE PHL CWA
HAS AVG`D BELOW NORMAL!
THE PROJECTED MONTHLY JANUARY AVG TEMP FOR PHL SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST SINCE 2004 WHEN THE AVG TEMPS WAS 26.1 DEGREES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1015A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1015A
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1015A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1015A
CLIMATE...1015A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. AN EAST
WEST COLD FRONT FROM BOSTON TO BUFFALO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MORE LOW
PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
ARCTIC HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...BANDS OF BRIEFLY MDT TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
LATER THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY N OF KPHL WITH 1/2-1 INCH AMTS IN AN
HR OR OR LESS. THIS PER 10Z HRRR AND RAP AS WELL VERY LARGE LOW
LVL LAPSE RATES...DECENT BL RH OVER 50 PCT AND COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE OF BEST AXIS FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...THO MASS FIELDS OF
VORTICITY AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST VCNTY KMPO-KABE ESEWD THRU KSMQ
AND KTTN.
FROM THE 630 AM DISCUSSION BELOW.
FIRST IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE LATEST NAM AND RAP HAVE SHIFTED THE
AREA OF THE BEST LIFT A BIT FURTHER SE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ON THE PV
1.5 LAYER...THE BAND OF POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION IS BRIEFLY OVER
THE NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT 21Z...BEFORE PROPAGATING
APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE FROM KILG TO KTTN FOR 00 TO 03Z. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AS
IT IS IN OUR AREA.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY...WITH 850 TO 700MB LAPSE RATES RANGING
FROM 5 TO 7 C/KM AND MU CAPE VALUES OF 20 TO 30 J/KG. HOWEVER...ONE
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
PHL. DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THAT DEVELOPS...IT COULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY LIFT NE THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING AN
ABRUPT END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND THE WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT...COULD SEE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS
SUCH...MAY SEE A FEW PLACES REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND NW NEW JERSEY. HOWEVER...THIS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SONG, DIFFERENT VERSE, AS THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SEVERAL AREAS OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DURG THE EXTENDED PD. IN
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL TO AT
LEAST POTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT THE START OF THE PD, ON FRI, THE HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
AND EXPECT COLD AND DRY WX TO PREVAIL INTO FRI NIGHT. THEN, THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT SEWD AND THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE IN ERN
CAN TO TRACK EWD. ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL MOVE W TO E ACRS THE
AREA DURG SAT. THIS ALBERTA CLIPPER SYS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMS, MAINLY OVER NRN
AREAS.
BEHIND THE CFP, THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEN ANOTHER VERY WK LOW IS FCST TO MOVE OUT OF THE MID MS VLY AND
TRACK EWD TWD THE MID ATLC FOR SUN NIGHT INTO ERLY MON. THE MDLS
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYS THIS CYCLE. THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE NWD SYS AND EVEN LESS QPF OVER OUR AREA.
SO FOR NOW, WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS, WITHOUT CHANGES, BUT IF THESE
TREND CONTINUE THEY COULD PSBLY BE LOWERED MORE OR REMOVED ENTIRELY.
ONCE THIS LOW MOVES BY TO THE NORTH ANOTHER MASSIVE HIGH WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND COVER ABOUT 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WX RATHER QUIET BUT COLD THRU MIDWEEK.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH BELOW NRML. THE OPTIMISTIC TEMP
FCST HAS SOME AREAS GETTING ABV FREEZING ON SAT AND MON. THE
PESSIMISTIC TEMP FCST KEEPS MOST EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING THRU THE
ENTIRE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR BECOMING CIGS AOA 3500 FT THIS AFTN WITH SCT BRIEF IFR
CONDS IN IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS (BANDS OF)...MOSTLY N OF KPHL. WEST
WINDS G 20 KT.
TONIGHT...SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT WITH REMAINING SCT IFR CONDS IN SNOW
SHOWERS PROGRESSING SEWD VCNTY KPNE-KPHL-KMIV-KACY AND KILG 00Z-
06Z TIME FRAME WITH A WSHIFT TO NW AND A FEW G15-20KT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SEWD THRU THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
PSBLY IFR IN SNOW SHWRS AS A CDFNT TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST. ALSO,
GUSTY SW TO W WIND EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. MDT CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUN NIGHT AND MON...VFR EARLY WITH POSSIBLE LOWER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHWRS.
THIS SYS HAS TRENDED FURTHER N THIS CYCLE AND THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SNOW SHWRS WOULD BE OVER NRN AREA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT. THOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER...WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ON THE BAY...WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT THIS EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
BEFORE DECIDING ON AN SCA OR NOT.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ICE ACCRETION RATES ABOVE
THE CURRENT 0.1 TO 0.2 IN/HR TODAY OR TONIGHT. THUS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE NEEDING A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH NW WIND GUSTS REACHING AROUND
30 KNOTS.
FRI NIGHT...CONDS MAY DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR A TIME.
SAT...A CFP IS EXPECTED, WITH THE SW FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE LOOK
PROBABLE, WITH SEAS INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY AS WELL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IN THE 15Z- 20Z SATURDAY AFTN
TIME-FRAME IN THE STILL VERY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FOR THE ATLC
SNJ AND DEL WATERS.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...DECREASING WIND FROM GALE TO SCA AND SHOULD BE SUB
ADVISORY BY LATER SUN. SEAS WILL LIKELY RESPOND IN KIND.
MON...ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION AND AREA WATERS INTO
MON, WITH SCA LEVELS EXPECTED AND A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
FREEZING SPRAY OF VARYING RATES IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEASONALLY..KILG AND KPHL ARE NOW RANKED TOP 25 SNOWFALL THROUGH
AT LEAST 120 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING.
KPHL FOR JANUARY IS NOW TOP 5 ALL TIME SNOWFALL DATING BACK TO 1872.
KPHL JAN SNOWFALL RANKING
1 33.9 1996
2 28.9 1918
3 25.2 2011
4 23.4 1978
5 22.5 2014
6 21.5 1935
7 20.0 1893
8 19.7 1961
9 16.1 1912
10 16.0 1966
THE RANKING BOTH SEASONALLY AND MONTHLY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AS
THE LAGGED ENSEMBLE CFSV2 FOR THE PAST 9 DAYS (SINCE THE 13TH) HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 4 WEEKS (THRU AT LEAST MID FEBRUARY). COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
POSSIBLE SNOW EVENTS. AM FAR FROM SURE WHATS DRIVING THE PATTERN...
IT APPEARS TO BE COMBINED -EPO AND THE CURRENTLY STRONG +PNA.
N ATLC BLOCKING (-NAO) HAS BEEN NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE MOST OF THE
WINTER SO FAR... AND SO IT APPEARS THE NAO HAS NOT BEEN MUCH..IF
ANY..FACTOR IN THIS WINTERS COLD.
IN ANY CASE...THE DEVELOPING PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN (VARIABILITY
DOES ALLOW FOR A DAY OR 2 PER WEEK OF NORMAL TEMPS) ASSURES US OF
A WELL BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY AVG TEMPS HERE IN THE MOUNT HOLLY FCST
AREA FOR JANUARY AND PROBABLY THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FIRST
HALF OF FEBRUARY AT LEAST MODELED BY THE CFSV2. THIS FITS THE CPC
DAY8-14 AND MONTHLY OUTLOOKS AS CURRENTLY POSTED THIS MORNING.
VULNERABLE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WE ARE FCSTG TO BE
APPROACHED WITHIN 2 DEGREES ARE LISTED BELOW.
WHILE WE THOUGHT KACY WOULD GET CLOSE TO RER LOW THIS MORNING...THE
WIND MIXED JUST ENOUGH ALL NIGHT AND THE LOW THERE WAS 6 ABOVE...
WHILE IT DROPPED TO 5 BELOW AT KMIV AT THE LAST MINUTE VIA LATE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
1/28
KRDG 2 2005
FINALLY...THE 00Z/23 GFS/ECMWF OP FCSTS HAVE TEMPS 15 BELOW
NORMAL TOMORROW-FRIDAY THE 24TH, AND THEN AGAIN TUE AND WED OF
NEXT WEEK (28 AND 29).
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 9A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 9A
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 9A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 9A
CLIMATE...9A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
623 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE MAY
AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...06Z MODELS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAVE
TRENDED MORE MOIST...ESPECIALLY IN SE PA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
THERE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE FEATURES OF NOTE FOR THIS POTENTIAL ARE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
FIRST IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE LATEST NAM AND RAP HAVE SHIFTED THE
AREA OF THE BEST LIFT A BIT FURTHER SE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ON THE PV
1.5 LAYER...THE BAND OF POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION IS BRIEFLY OVER
THE NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT 21Z...BEFORE PROPAGATING
APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE FROM KILG TO KTTN FOR 00 TO 03Z. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AS
IT IS IN OUR AREA.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY...WITH 850 TO 700MB LAPSE RATES RANGING
FROM 5 TO 7 C/KM AND MU CAPE VALUES OF 20 TO 30 J/KG. HOWEVER...ONE
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
PHL. DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THAT DEVELOPS...IT COULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PA.
ALL THAT SAID...THE HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE DELAWARE
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF PHL FROM ABOUT 23 TO 03Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY LIFT NE THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING AN
ABRUPT END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND THE WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT...COULD SEE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS
SUCH...MAY SEE A FEW PLACES REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND NW NEW JERSEY. HOWEVER...THIS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SONG, DIFFERENT VERSE, AS THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SEVERAL AREAS OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DURG THE EXTENDED PD. IN
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL TO AT
LEAST POTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT THE START OF THE PD, ON FRI, THE HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
AND EXPECT COLD AND DRY WX TO PREVAIL INTO FRI NIGHT. THEN, THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT SEWD AND THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE IN ERN
CAN TO TRACK EWD. ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL MOVE W TO E ACRS THE
AREA DURG SAT. THIS ALBERTA CLIPPER SYS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMS, MAINLY OVER NRN
AREAS.
BEHIND THE CFP, THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEN ANOTHER VERY WK LOW IS FCST TO MOVE OUT OF THE MID MS VLY AND
TRACK EWD TWD THE MID ATLC FOR SUN NIGHT INTO ERLY MON. THE MDLS
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYS THIS CYCLE. THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE NWD SYS AND EVEN LESS QPF OVER OUR AREA.
SO FOR NOW, WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS, WITHOUT CHANGES, BUT IF THESE
TREND CONTINUE THEY COULD PSBLY BE LOWERED MORE OR REMOVED ENTIRELY.
ONCE THIS LOW MOVES BY TO THE NORTH ANOTHER MASSIVE HIGH WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND COVER ABOUT 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WX RATHER QUIET BUT COLD THRU MIDWEEK.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH BELOW NRML. THE OPTIMISTIC TEMP
FCST HAS SOME AREAS GETTING ABV FREEZING ON SAT AND MON. THE
PESSIMISTIC TEMP FCST KEEPS MOST EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING THRU THE
ENTIRE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLIDE IN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THESE
CLOUDS EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SHSN BETWEEN 18 AND 03Z. THE FAVORED
AREA...WITH THE BEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN SE
AND THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. THIS INCLUDES
KPHL...KILG...AND KRDG. HOWEVER...ALL TAF SITES DO HAVE SOME
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER INTERMITTENT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF THE NAM SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER
AROUND 2000 AGL OVER THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND MID DAY...AND SOME
WINDS NEAR 10G20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
PSBLY IFR IN SNOW SHWRS AS A CDFNT TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST. ALSO,
GUSTY SW TO W WIND EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. MDT CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUN NIGHT AND MON...VFR EARLY WITH POSSIBLE LOWER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHWRS.
THIS SYS HAS TRENDED FURTHER N THIS CYCLE AND THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SNOW SHWRS WOULD BE OVER NRN AREA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT. THOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER...WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ON THE BAY...WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT THIS EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
BEFORE DECIDING ON AN SCA OR NOT.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ICE ACCRETION RATES ABOVE
THE CURRENT 0.1 TO 0.2 IN/HR TODAY OR TONIGHT. THUS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE NEEDING A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH NW WIND GUSTS REACHING AROUND
30 KNOTS.
FRI NIGHT...CONDS MAY DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR A TIME.
SAT...A CFP IS EXPECTED, WITH THE SW FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE LOOK
PROBABLE, WITH SEAS INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY AS WELL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IN THE 15Z- 20Z SATURDAY AFTN
TIME-FRAME IN THE STILL VERY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FOR THE ATLC
SNJ AND DEL WATERS.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...DECREASING WIND FROM GALE TO SCA AND SHOULD BE SUB
ADVISORY BY LATER SUN. SEAS WILL LIKELY RESPOND IN KIND.
MON...ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION AND AREA WATERS INTO
MON, WITH SCA LEVELS EXPECTED AND A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
FREEZING SPRAY OF VARYING RATES IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEASONALLY..KILG AND KPHL ARE NOW RANKED TOP 25 SNOWFALL THROUGH
AT LEAST 120 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING.
KPHL FOR JANUARY IS NOW TOP 5 ALL TIME SNOWFALL DATING BACK TO 1872.
KPHL JAN SNOWFALL RANKING
1 33.9 1996
2 28.9 1918
3 25.2 2011
4 23.4 1978
5 22.5 2014
6 21.5 1935
7 20.0 1893
8 19.7 1961
9 16.1 1912
10 16.0 1966
THE RANKING BOTH SEASONALLY AND MONTHLY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AS
SOME OF THE CLIMATE WEEKLY INFORMATION HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 WEEKS. COLDER THAN
NORMAL AND POSSIBLE SNOW EVENTS.
VULNERABLE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WE ARE FCSTG TO BE
APPROACHED WITHIN 2 DEGREES.
1/28
KRDG 2 2005
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
430 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
AS OF 3 AM CST...2 AM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLOUDY. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP UNDER THE DENSE CLOUD COVER...ONLY REACHING
THE LOW 10S TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WSR-88D RADAR DATA
INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST COLORADO. SO FAR AT
GOODLAND...ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN RECEIVED BUT SNOWFALL
RATES HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO AN HOUR OR TWO AGO.
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...MOVING SOUTH. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND TODAY...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
PRESSING SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SNOWFALL SHOULD
QUICKLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING AND HAVE COMPLETELY EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z...NOON CST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT BUT ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SUN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
20S. AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE TODAY
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
REGARDING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE LATEST RUNS OF CONSSHORT AND THE HRRR SHOW THE LOW AT
KMCK AROUND -1. WITH WEAKENING WINDS...THERE ARE SOME DOUBTS THAT WE
WILL REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE AND
IF CRITERIA IS MET...IT WILL BE MARGINAL. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE
ADVISORY RUNNING AS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE WE REACH CRITERIA AT A
FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS REMAIN HIGHER.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY INCREASE IN
SPEED OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AS CUSTOMARY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...SOME OF THE
LOWER LYING AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO GO CALM BRIEFLY WILL BE ABLE TO
DROP LIKE A ROCK BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN ONCE THE WINDS RETURN. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO MID TEENS ARE
ADVERTISED.
A DRASTIC FLIP BACK TO WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850 MB MOVING IN BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD RECEDE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST. MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED IN SPREAD SOME FOR
FRIDAY BUT AM CONFIDENT IN THE WARMER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ANOTHER 700 MB JET OF
WINDS WILL NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
MIXING...STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE
YET AGAIN. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...MORE INFO ON THIS BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE AGAIN...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS
FOR SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN FRIDAY. ALSO...HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...KEEPING THE HUMIDITIES SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR MASS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND
ALLBLEND GAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY. DECIDED RAIN
OR SNOW FOR THE WEATHER GRIDS GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WET BULB TEMPERATURES
WOULD LIKELY BE AROUND OR BELOW ZERO MAKING SNOW MOST LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AT KGLD AS
THE LOW CIGS/VIS DUE TO SNOW MOVE SOUTH. ONE LAST BAND OF
SNOW THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM YUMA COLORADO TO ST FRANCIS
KANSAS MUST PASS THROUGH FIRST. AFTER THAT...CLEARING SKIES AND NO
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. KMCK WILL BE VFR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES IN
DURING THE DAY...LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH
MOVES OUT...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN. AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN TONIGHT...WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AT
KGLD AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. SOME OF THE
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE CANADIAN AND THE NAM...INCREASE DEWPOINTS
DURING THE DAY INTO THE 20S AND 30S. SIMPLY DO NOT BELIEVE THIS
BASED ON INDICATIONS FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE FACT THE AIR IS
COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL FOR
DEWPOINTS WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE DRY AIR MUCH BETTER. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN. DAYTIME
MIXING SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE STRONGER WINDS AND BRING THE
GUSTS DOWN. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH. THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS THAT STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
BEFORE A WARNING. FIRST...POTENTIAL CLOUDS MOVING IN THE AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES IN. SECOND...ANY POTENTIAL SNOW COVER
REMAINING COULD PREVENT HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING OFF AS MUCH AS
CURRENTLY THOUGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ079>081.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
947 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
DECIDED TO HANG ONTO THE CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THIS
UPDATE. WIND CHILLS OVERALL REMAIN 15 TO 25 BELOW WEST...AND 25
TO 40 BELOW EAST. CONDTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THOUGH THE
MORNING...AND WILL MONITOR IN CASE SOME AREAS CAN BE CANCELLED
EARLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RADIATED AS COLD AS MODELS WERE ADVERTISING
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE NOT
REFLECTING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REPLACE
THE WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. AREAS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE CLOSE TO 40 BELOW ZERO...SO KEPT THE
WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TODAY...AND WINDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY MORNING WERE NOT TRENDING AS LOW AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE RUC13 MODEL H925 WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST AT AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA (WHERE THE ARCTIC HIGH AXIS WAS SITUATED) THE RUC13 WAS
SHOWING WEST WINDS AT 5 MPH. THIS WAS APPARENTLY ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP
SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
CREATE JUST ENOUGH MIXING SO THAT TEMPERATURES WERE NOT BOTTOMING
OUT AS THEY WOULD IN CALM CONDITIONS.
THAT SAID...WIND CHILLS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO AT 3 AM
CST. THUS WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WARNING SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE AND DO
NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES WITH WIND CHILL HEADLINES...AND WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...REACHING IOWA/KANSAS BY EVENING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA THIS
MORNING TO THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
WINDS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH.
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND A
QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED - MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT (AN INCH OR LESS)...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT RECOVERING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE
ZERO TO 5 TO 15 ABOVE CENTRAL AND 15 TO 25 IN THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM HIGHS TODAY WITH PLENTY OF MIXING
AND SINCE THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE.
THIS WILL SET UP FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
A CLIPPER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY GENERATING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL
GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE GENERALLY ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF
HIGHWAY 52...AND GENERALLY ALL SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY 52. AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION
SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD FRIDAY EVENING IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
BY SATURDAY...A BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM MINOT TO ROLLA TO
JAMESTOWN...AND FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM CROSBY TO GARRISON TO
BISMARCK.
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD GENERATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS STATEWIDE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT IS A DAY 4
FORECAST...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING WATCH HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
BY MONDAY...DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS
FROM 25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE STATE.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
PATTERN. THE ECMWF PROGS ANOTHER CLIPPER TO AFFECT THE STATE WHEREAS
THE GFS KEEPS THE CLIPPER AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
ROCKIES. WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH AND INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
WIND CHILLS TO 45 BELOW 06Z-15Z WILL PRESENT A HAZARD TO SURFACE
OPERATIONS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 12Z IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER BY 18Z. AS
THIS OCCURS...A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN CANADA TO HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST...THEN INCREASE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20
KTS...THEN TURN WESTERLY AFT 00Z. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN VFR CIGS MOVE IN MAINLY AFT 00Z. MVFR CIGS
MOVE INTO KISN/KMOT/KDIK AFT 03Z AND TO KBIS/KJMS AFT 04Z-05Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-
012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
659 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RADIATED AS COLD AS MODELS WERE ADVERTISING
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE NOT
REFLECTING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REPLACE
THE WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. AREAS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE CLOSE TO 40 BELOW ZERO...SO KEPT THE
WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TODAY...AND WINDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY MORNING WERE NOT TRENDING AS LOW AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE RUC13 MODEL H925 WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST AT AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA (WHERE THE ARCTIC HIGH AXIS WAS SITUATED) THE RUC13 WAS
SHOWING WEST WINDS AT 5 MPH. THIS WAS APPARENTLY ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP
SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
CREATE JUST ENOUGH MIXING SO THAT TEMPERATURES WERE NOT BOTTOMING
OUT AS THEY WOULD IN CALM CONDITIONS.
THAT SAID...WIND CHILLS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO AT 3 AM
CST. THUS WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WARNING SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE AND DO
NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES WITH WIND CHILL HEADLINES...AND WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...REACHING IOWA/KANSAS BY EVENING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA THIS
MORNING TO THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
WINDS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH.
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND A
QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED - MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT (AN INCH OR LESS)...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT RECOVERING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE
ZERO TO 5 TO 15 ABOVE CENTRAL AND 15 TO 25 IN THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM HIGHS TODAY WITH PLENTY OF MIXING
AND SINCE THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE.
THIS WILL SET UP FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
A CLIPPER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY GENERATING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL
GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE GENERALLY ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF
HIGHWAY 52...AND GENERALLY ALL SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY 52. AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION
SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD FRIDAY EVENING IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
BY SATURDAY...A BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM MINOT TO ROLLA TO
JAMESTOWN...AND FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM CROSBY TO GARRISON TO
BISMARCK.
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD GENERATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS STATEWIDE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT IS A DAY 4
FORECAST...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING WATCH HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
BY MONDAY...DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS
FROM 25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE STATE.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
PATTERN. THE ECMWF PROGS ANOTHER CLIPPER TO AFFECT THE STATE WHEREAS
THE GFS KEEPS THE CLIPPER AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
ROCKIES. WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH AND INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
WIND CHILLS TO 45 BELOW 06Z-15Z WILL PRESENT A HAZARD TO SURFACE
OPERATIONS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 12Z IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER BY 18Z. AS
THIS OCCURS...A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN CANADA TO HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST...THEN INCREASE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20
KTS...THEN TURN WESTERLY AFT 00Z. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN VFR CIGS MOVE IN MAINLY AFT 00Z. MVFR CIGS
MOVE INTO KISN/KMOT/KDIK AFT 03Z AND TO KBIS/KJMS AFT 04Z-05Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-
012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT TO THE COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST IN A NEVER-ENDING RUN OF ARCTIC COLD FRONTS HAS CROSSED
THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED. ONE OF THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES THIS
MORNING WAS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE SKY GRIDS...AS A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF CLEARING DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY THE RAP SEEMED
TO BE PICKING UP ON THE SCOURING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SO IT
WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO LUMBER EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN AXIS CROSSING THE ILN CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
SNOW...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHEASTERN ILN CWA.
ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY) WILL BE VERY LIGHT. FLURRIES WERE KEPT IN
THE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING...WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE ACTUALLY NOT BEEN QUITE AS COLD AS
INITIALLY FORECAST...BUT THE COLD ADVECTION IS STILL WELL ON ITS
WAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO VERIFY
EASILY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH THAT SAID...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED CWA-WIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...IN ORDER TO ALLOW THE HEADLINE TO LAST THROUGH
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND CHILLS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UNLIKELY TO RISE ABOVE
ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BE UNDERGOING A TRANSITION ON FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING BRIEFLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN CWA FIRMLY INTO A RELATIVELY
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...FROM A STARTING POINT OF NEAR ZERO
DEGREES. SUFFICE TO SAY...IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES ANY HIGHER THAN THE TEENS.
FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...VERY STRONG
AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN A MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A THOUSAND MILES SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY...AS FORCING INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LARGE PV ANOMALY MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A FAST-MOVING BUT POTENT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE ILN CWA. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CROSS THE CWA IN ONLY ABOUT SIX
HOURS (MAXIMIZED AROUND 09Z SATURDAY MORNING). QPF AMOUNTS ARE ON
THE ORDER OF 0.15-0.25 INCHES...BUT THE WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR RATIOS TO BE ESPECIALLY HIGH. AN
EARLY (AND VERY PRELIMINARY) FORECAST OF 2 INCHES (SOUTHWEST ILN CWA)
TO 4 INCHES (NORTHEAST ILN CWA) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT...PUTTING THIS EVENT INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY AT FIRST
GUESS. MOST OF THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO FALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. THE KEY ELEMENT WILL
BE THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST (AND THEN EAST) INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL SPREAD ON THE
STRENGTH...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE LAST COUPLE SLATES OF
MODEL RUNS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN OHIO OR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS SORT OF TRACK WOULD MAKE
IT HARD TO FIND FAVOR IN A PARTICULARLY SNOWY FORECAST FOR THE ILN
CWA...AND IN FACT...THE WARMING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW MIGHT
BE ENOUGH TO PUSH PARTS OF THE CWA ABOVE FREEZING. OF ALL
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST...EVEN GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM IS THE ONE PRESENTING THE GREATEST CHALLENGE IN TERMS OF
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE LARGE SCALE CHANGES WERE NOT MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN OF SIGNIFICANT COLD BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING WELL INTO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND A MENTION OF THIS COLD
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
COLDER AIR AND HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS.
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE INTRICACIES OF THE FLOW IN THE LAST DAY OR TWO
OF THE FORECAST. GFS IS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW THURSDAY
WHEREAS THE EUROPEAN IS NOT. TEMPERATURES TUES NIGHT COULD BE MUCH
COLDER IF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY AFTERNOON
EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS. FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES MAY ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY IS LOW...DECIDED TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR KCMH/KLCK AS
THEY WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE IF THE SNOW DOES INDEED
MATERIALIZE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>044-051>053-060>062.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ045-046-
054>056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/HATZOS
AVIATION...KURZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
547 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.AVIATION...
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WAS POISED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KLBB THIS
MORNING AS THE STRONGER SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
INTO THE REGION. TIMING THIS LAYER IS DIFFICULT WITH INCONSISTENCIES
AMONG THE SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND THE LAYER NOW PARTIALLY HIDDEN
BY HIGHER CLOUDS...BUT WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH
MOVES A 2000 FOOT DECK OVER KLBB BY 12Z TO 13Z. MUCH DRIER AIR
ALREADY WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO KCDS WHICH WILL MAKE A LOWER
CLOUD DECK VERY DIFFICULT TODAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OVERHEAD AS WELL...THOUGH THE DRYING WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE FOR CLEARING BY
THIS EVENING WHILE THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LET UP BY THEN
AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
VERY DRY AND COLDER AIR WAS INCREASINGLY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS THE SECONDARY SURGE WAS UNDERWAY. THIS DRY AIR WAS
UNDERCUTTING THE MODEST LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA WITH DECREASING RADAR TRENDS AND MORE
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE TO THE CLOUD BANDS. YET...WITH THE SURGING
ARCTIC AIRMASS THERE ALSO WERE EXPANDING LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. WE WILL RETAIN A SLIM
MENTION FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY BELIEVING
MODEL TRENDS SHOWING THE MAIN DRYING SPREADING EAST TO WEST DURING
THE DAY. VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES STILL SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME OVER WESTERN BORDER AREAS...WITH A MINOR DUSTING NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY UPWARDS THOUGH ACTUAL OUTCOME WILL DEPEND ON
ABILITY OF CLOUDS TO BREAK. ADJUSTED MAXIMUMS TODAY ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MOST RECENT TRENDS FOR A STILL
COLD DAY NONE-THE-LESS. BY LATER TODAY THE DRY AIR WILL BE FULLY
ENTRENCHED WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND WE WILL GO INTO THE EARLY NIGHT
WITH A CLEARING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP
DURING THE EVENING...MAYBE APPROACHING MINIMUMS ON THE CAP-ROCK BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS. THIS
SHOULD HOLD UP MINIMUMS EARLY FRIDAY...PROBABLY STARTING MINOR
MODERATION BEFORE DAYBREAK NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THESE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILL READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LOWS FOR
TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE 40S AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF A 1040 MB
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. LOCATIONS NEAR THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES WITH THE QUICKER
SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND GREATER DISPLACEMENT FROM THE COLD DOME.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP ITS LONG STRANGLEHOLD ON THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER SUNDAY...LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE BOTH OF
THESE FRONTS...INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL EQUATE TO A FANTASTIC
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S EACH DAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE
PRECURSOR TO A POLAR AIRMASS LOOKING TO MOVE IN BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK. AFTER TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...COLD
AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN AS A SURFACE RIDGE LIES IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE AREA TUESDAY. WOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A
FASTER PUSH OF THIS FEATURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND AN ASSOCIATED
RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL THEREFORE ELECT TO LOWER HIGHS
FOR TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 40S WHILE STAYING ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS
IN THE 30S. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVERLY OPTIMISTIC IN
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE LIFT...SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WARMING SHOULD ENSUE BY MIDWEEK WHILE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS/EASTERN PACIFIC MAY FINALLY ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 27 9 48 24 63 / 20 0 0 0 0
TULIA 27 9 48 25 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 28 9 47 25 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 31 10 47 25 63 / 10 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 30 11 46 26 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 32 12 44 26 62 / 10 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 32 12 44 26 63 / 10 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 30 11 50 27 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 31 12 46 27 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 32 13 47 28 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
153 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TRANQUIL...BUT
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEAR TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGH-LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY A PRODUCT OF LATENT HEAT
RELEASE OFF THE GREAT LAKES INDUCED BY FRIGID 850 HPA TEMPS RANGING
FROM -20 TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION.
DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING
REFLECTS DRY LOW-LEVELS AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AND DIFFUSE DIABATIC HEATING BOUNDARY WAS
ALSO APPARENT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL SPAWN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
AS EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND
LOCAL HI-RES WRF. HOWEVER DUE TO DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THESE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOW TEENS ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO HINDER WIND CHILL
VALUES SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO -14F BELOW ZERO.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BAND
OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND REACHING
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. OUR LOCAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
INLAND EXTENT TOOL AND PREVIOUS CSTAR RESEARCH ALSO INDICATE A
SINGLE BAND ORIENTED ALONG THE 290 DEGREE VECTOR DEVELOPING AMIDST A
SEVERE INSTABILITY AND WEAKLY-SHEARED REGIME...BUT REMAINING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A LACK OF A MULTI-LAKE
CONNECTION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
BAND. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
LIGHT IN NATURE...A COATING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LEADING TO
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST 850 HPA
AIR OF -24 TO -28C IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY AND WARNING
CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND WILL ADDRESS THESE HEADLINES
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SET UP AS WELL...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID AND UPPER TEENS FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY ROBUST FOR A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM...WITH FORECASTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE VALUES SUB-990 HPA.
ALOFT...A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE CARVING ITS WAY
THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED
WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...A STRONG 300 HPA 160+KT JET WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ALLOWING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BE UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AND BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WILL RESULT IN A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
WHILE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LEVEL OF
IMPACT ANY MESOSCALE INFLUENCE MAY HAVE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP...ALLOWING 850 HPA
TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND -10C. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT BEING WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT BEING THE
PRIMARY DRIVERS BEHIND EVENTUAL SNOWFALL TOTALS. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A WEAK BOUNDARY LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IF ANY FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT...COULD
ALSO ENHANCE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WHILE LIMITING THE SHADOWING EFFECT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
FURTHER SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL EVENT WILL BE LIKELY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS NEAR 20:1.
WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEING CLOSE TO THE GROUND DUE TO THE
COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...ENHANCED LIFT EITHER FROM ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT OR UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE TO EASILY BE TAPPED...WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED FOR A 3-7
INCH SNOWFALL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ALONG WITH IT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW AND BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. 850 HPA TEMPS ALSO TUMBLE TO
AROUND -20C AGAIN AND WITH A FRESH SNOWFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL
TUMBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE WITH
THE ULTIMATE DEGREE OF COOLING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS ON THE
GROUND. WITH A GUSTY WIND COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES...WIND
CHILL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.
SCATTERED LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORM SUNDAY...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THEIR ROLLER COASTER RIDE...WARMING TO NEAR -10C AND ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND A SERIES OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WRN DACKS
AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS IN THE LONG TERM.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SRN QUEBEC
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHORT OF ARCTIC AIR
WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -22C T -27C ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE SHOW A W/NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE BAND MAY ACTUALLY BACK FROM THE
W/NW TO THE W...INITIALLY IMPACTING THE NRN CATSKILLS...AND WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THEN THE WRN DACKS REGION. VERY COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO PROMOTE WIND CHILL HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...AND ERN CATSKILLS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 15
BELOW RANGE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND GENERALLY SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW INCHES OR LESS. THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. LAKE
EFFECT AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS...NRN TACONICS...BERKS...AND WRN
DACKS...WHERE SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL WITH TEENS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOWER TO M20S FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE SPEEDING UP THE NEXT CLIPPER TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE
CONSENSUS IS NOW FOR THE CLIPPER TO MOVE OVER THE NY-PA BORDER
TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION. IT MAY TAP A LITTLE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY VALUES FOR MOST OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. STRONG CONVERGENCE...
ISENTROPIC AND QG LIFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC WAVE WILL
PROMOTE SOME SNOW WITH PERHAPS 1-4 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD. THE GEFS ARE SHOWING 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IN THE LATEST KALB PLUME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION TO FOLLOW BY MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND. THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
/PERHAPS A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE WRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY ON IN THE TEENS AND L20S...EXCEPT FOR
SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED WITH WIND CHILLS HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN. THE
GEFS CONTINUE TO HAVE H925/H850 TEMPS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. OUR FCST GOES CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. THE SRN DACKS
COULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE ONCE AGAIN. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN STREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE NW ZONES INTO TUE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE FRIGID WITH LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE SRN DACKS
AND SRN GREEN MTNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE PERSISTENT COLD CONTINUES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM NEAR THE TN VALLEY. ANOTHER BELOW
ZERO NIGHT FOR THE REGION IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND /MIN
TEMPS GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW/. EVEN SO...WIND CHILL/APPARENT
TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S. OVERALL...JANUARY LOOKS TO FINISH
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY-PA BORDER THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH JUST AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRI.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THE
CIGS COULD LOWER TO 5-6 KFT AGL BY EVENING. AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES BY THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AFTER 00Z/FRI WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE MID CLOUDS WOULD PERSIST
THE LONGEST FROM KPSF AND KPOU SOUTH AND EAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO.
THE WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT 6-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN TO 4-8
KTS AFTER 00Z/FRI...EXCEPT AT KALB/KPOU WHERE THE WINDS WILL HOLD
NEARLY STEADY AFTER 06Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB AND KPSF AROUND 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN. SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. SHSN LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND IT WILL
REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER AND LAKE
ICE TO THICKEN.
IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TRANQUIL...BUT
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEAR TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGH-LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY A PRODUCT OF LATENT HEAT
RELEASE OFF THE GREAT LAKES INDUCED BY FRIGID 850 HPA TEMPS RANGING
FROM -20 TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION.
DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING
REFLECTS DRY LOW-LEVELS AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AND DIFFUSE DIABATIC HEATING BOUNDARY WAS
ALSO APPARENT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL SPAWN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
AS EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND
LOCAL HI-RES WRF. HOWEVER DUE TO DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THESE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOW TEENS ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO HINDER WIND CHILL
VALUES SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO -14F BELOW ZERO.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BAND
OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND REACHING
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. OUR LOCAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
INLAND EXTENT TOOL AND PREVIOUS CSTAR RESEARCH ALSO INDICATE A
SINGLE BAND ORIENTED ALONG THE 290 DEGREE VECTOR DEVELOPING AMIDST A
SEVERE INSTABILITY AND WEAKLY-SHEARED REGIME...BUT REMAINING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A LACK OF A MULTI-LAKE
CONNECTION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
BAND. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
LIGHT IN NATURE...A COATING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LEADING TO
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST 850 HPA
AIR OF -24 TO -28C IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY AND WARNING
CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND WILL ADDRESS THESE HEADLINES
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SET UP AS WELL...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID AND UPPER TEENS FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
QUITE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW
AS WELL.
DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...850 MB TEMPS NEVER GET ABOVE -10
DEGREES CELSIUS...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN ALL
AREAS SATURDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS. THESE LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY DURING THE NIGHT...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATER AT NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND A SERIES OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WRN DACKS
AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS IN THE LONG TERM.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SRN QUEBEC
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHORT OF ARCTIC AIR
WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -22C T -27C ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE SHOW A W/NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE BAND MAY ACTUALLY BACK FROM THE
W/NW TO THE W...INITIALLY IMPACTING THE NRN CATSKILLS...AND WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THEN THE WRN DACKS REGION. VERY COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO PROMOTE WIND CHILL HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...AND ERN CATSKILLS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 15
BELOW RANGE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND GENERALLY SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW INCHES OR LESS. THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. LAKE
EFFECT AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS...NRN TACONICS...BERKS...AND WRN
DACKS...WHERE SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL WITH TEENS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOWER TO M20S FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE SPEEDING UP THE NEXT CLIPPER TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE
CONSENSUS IS NOW FOR THE CLIPPER TO MOVE OVER THE NY-PA BORDER
TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION. IT MAY TAP A LITTLE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY VALUES FOR MOST OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. STRONG CONVERGENCE...
ISENTROPIC AND QG LIFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC WAVE WILL
PROMOTE SOME SNOW WITH PERHAPS 1-4 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD. THE GEFS ARE SHOWING 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IN THE LATEST KALB PLUME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION TO FOLLOW BY MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND. THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
/PERHAPS A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE WRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY ON IN THE TEENS AND L20S...EXCEPT FOR
SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED WITH WIND CHILLS HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN. THE
GEFS CONTINUE TO HAVE H925/H850 TEMPS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. OUR FCST GOES CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. THE SRN DACKS
COULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE ONCE AGAIN. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN STREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE NW ZONES INTO TUE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE FRIGID WITH LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE SRN DACKS
AND SRN GREEN MTNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE PERSISTENT COLD CONTINUES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM NEAR THE TN VALLEY. ANOTHER BELOW
ZERO NIGHT FOR THE REGION IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND /MIN
TEMPS GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW/. EVEN SO...WIND CHILL/APPARENT
TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S. OVERALL...JANUARY LOOKS TO FINISH
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY-PA BORDER THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH JUST AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRI.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THE
CIGS COULD LOWER TO 5-6 KFT AGL BY EVENING. AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES BY THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AFTER 00Z/FRI WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE MID CLOUDS WOULD PERSIST
THE LONGEST FROM KPSF AND KPOU SOUTH AND EAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO.
THE WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT 6-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN TO 4-8
KTS AFTER 00Z/FRI...EXCEPT AT KALB/KPOU WHERE THE WINDS WILL HOLD
NEARLY STEADY AFTER 06Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB AND KPSF AROUND 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN. SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. SHSN LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND IT WILL
REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER AND LAKE
ICE TO THICKEN.
IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1211 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TRANQUIL...BUT
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEAR TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGH-LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY A PRODUCT OF LATENT HEAT
RELEASE OFF THE GREAT LAKES INDUCED BY FRIGID 850 HPA TEMPS RANGING
FROM -20 TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION.
DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING
REFLECTS DRY LOW-LEVELS AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AND DIFFUSE DIABATIC HEATING BOUNDARY WAS
ALSO APPARENT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL SPAWN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
AS EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND
LOCAL HI-RES WRF. HOWEVER DUE TO DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THESE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOW TEENS ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO HINDER WIND CHILL
VALUES SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO -14F BELOW ZERO.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BAND
OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND REACHING
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. OUR LOCAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
INLAND EXTENT TOOL AND PREVIOUS CSTAR RESEARCH ALSO INDICATE A
SINGLE BAND ORIENTED ALONG THE 290 DEGREE VECTOR DEVELOPING AMIDST A
SEVERE INSTABILITY AND WEAKLY-SHEARED REGIME...BUT REMAINING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A LACK OF A MULTI-LAKE
CONNECTION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
BAND. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
LIGHT IN NATURE...A COATING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LEADING TO
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST 850 HPA
AIR OF -24 TO -28C IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY AND WARNING
CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND WILL ADDRESS THESE HEADLINES
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SET UP AS WELL...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID AND UPPER TEENS FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
QUITE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW
AS WELL.
DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...850 MB TEMPS NEVER GET ABOVE -10
DEGREES CELSIUS...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN ALL
AREAS SATURDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS. THESE LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY DURING THE NIGHT...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATER AT NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND A SERIES OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WRN DACKS
AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS IN THE LONG TERM.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SRN QUEBEC
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHORT OF ARCTIC AIR
WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -22C T -27C ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE SHOW A W/NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE BAND MAY ACTUALLY BACK FROM THE
W/NW TO THE W...INITIALLY IMPACTING THE NRN CATSKILLS...AND WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THEN THE WRN DACKS REGION. VERY COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO PROMOTE WIND CHILL HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...AND ERN CATSKILLS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 15
BELOW RANGE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND GENERALLY SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW INCHES OR LESS. THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. LAKE
EFFECT AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS...NRN TACONICS...BERKS...AND WRN
DACKS...WHERE SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL WITH TEENS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOWER TO M20S FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE SPEEDING UP THE NEXT CLIPPER TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE
CONSENSUS IS NOW FOR THE CLIPPER TO MOVE OVER THE NY-PA BORDER
TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION. IT MAY TAP A LITTLE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY VALUES FOR MOST OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH HIGH CHC TO THE SOUTH. STRONG CONVERGENCE...
ISENTROPIC AND QG LIFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC WAVE WILL
PROMOTE SOME SNOW WITH PERHAPS 1-4 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD. THE GEFS ARE SHOWING 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IN THE LATEST KALB PLUME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION TO FOLLOW BY MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND. THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
/PERHAPS A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE WRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY ON IN THE TEENS AND L20S...EXCEPT FOR
SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED WITH WIND CHILLS HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN. THE
GEFS CONTINUE TO HAVE H925/H850 TEMPS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. OUR FCST GOES CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. THE SRN DACKS
COULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE ONCE AGAIN. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN STREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE NW ZONES INTO TUE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE FRIGID WITH LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE SRN DACKS
AND SRN GREEN MTNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE PERSISTENT COLD CONTINUES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM NEAR THE TN VALLEY. ANOTHER BELOW
ZERO NIGHT FOR THE REGION IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND /MIN
TEMPS GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW/. EVEN SO...WIND CHILL/APPARENT
TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO L20S. OVERALL...JANUARY LOOKS TO FINISH
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY-PA BORDER TODAY WITH JUST
AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF
SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRI.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING. SOME THE CIGS
COULD LOWER TO 5-6 KFT AGL BY THE EARLY PM ESPECIALLY FROM KPSF TO
KPOU SOUTH AND EAST. AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES BY THE SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR AFTER 00Z/FRI WITH JUST SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND. THE MID CLOUDS WOULD PERSIST THE LONGEST FROM KPSF
AND KPOU SOUTH AND EAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W/NW AT 6-12 KTS IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF. EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN TO 4-8 KTS AFTER
00Z/FRI...EXCEPT AT KALB/KPOU WHERE THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 06Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN. SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. SHSN LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND IT WILL
REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER AND LAKE
ICE TO THICKEN.
IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE INFLUENCING THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK; ALTHOUGH, A
FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MAKING A BRIEF RETURN FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY, WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA. FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST, SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...BANDS OF BRIEFLY MDT TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY N AND NW OF KPHL WITH 1/2-1
INCH AMTS IN AN HR OR OR LESS. HRRR AND RAP STILL MODEL AND WE/VE
SEEN 1/2MI AT KAVP THIS AFTN. INSTABILITY CONTS TO INCREASE AND WE
THINK WE HAVE TIL ABOUT 8 OR 9 PM TO SEND A COUPLE OF BANDS SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW MAP REPOSTED AT 2026Z. MINOR AMTS AND I MAY
HAVE MADE TOO BIG A DEAL ABOUT THIS EVENT.
TONIGHT...THE CFRONT PASSES SEWD THRU THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 07Z AND WITH WINDS SHIFTING LIGHT NW (GUST NEAR 15 MPH URBAN
CENTERS)... AND SNOWCOVER..TEMPS PLUMMET LATE AFTER THE PRE COLD
FRONTAL WARMER WEDGE OF TEMPS IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. SO SCT-BKN
CLOUDS THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR LATE.
WARMER NAM TEMPS THIS EVENING THEN COLDER MAV TEMPS LATE AS
DECOUPLING OCCURS. OTRW 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/23 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
WITH COUNTRYSIDE MODIFICATION DOWN 2-3 DEGS IN NJ.
ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVY POCONOS FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 6Z/23-16Z/24.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...A COLDER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN THE VALUES OF TODAY .. IE ABOUT 18 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL! NW WIND GUST 20 MPH IN THE MORNING BACKS TO WEST DURING THE
AFTN. 12Z/23 50 50 BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE APPLIED EXCEPT FCST USING
THE COLDER GFS MOS TEMPS. -20C AT 850...TOUGH TO WARM MUCH AT ALL
FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS OVER THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK.
TO START THE LONG TERM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY
MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA DURING SATURDAY, SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. OVERALL, THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY, MAKING FOR A BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AMPLE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, THOUGH, AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, AND WE ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE ECMWF,
GFS, AND OTHERS, WITH ABOUT ONE TO TWO INCHES ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR VICINITY AND CLOSER TO TWO TO FOUR INCHES
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BY SATURDAY EVENING, AND A
LITTLE RAIN COULD ALSO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME AS
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM, A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY NOSES INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MOST OF SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM THEN ON THE HORIZON WILL AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST
STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT,
THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM, AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP MORE OF A NORTHERLY TRACK
WITH THIS FEATURE. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS OUR
REGION MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING LOWER QPF
VALUES AS THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH. WE WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 02Z...VFR CIGS AOA 3500 FT WITH ISOLD OR SCT BRIEF IFR CONDS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS (BANDS OF)...MOSTLY N AND NW OF KPHL. W WINDS
G20 KT.
TONIGHT AFTER 02Z...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLDS AOA 3500 FT. WIND SHIFT TO
NW AND A FEW G15KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR OR FEW AOA 3500 FT. NW WIND GUST 20 KT IN THE
MORNING BACK TO WEST DURING THE AFTN. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHWRS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS FROM
WEST TO EAST. ALSO, GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR EARLY WITH POSSIBLE LOWER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHWRS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH
OF THE KPHL METRO AREA.
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA POSTED ATLC WATERS THRU FRI NIGHT. OCNL GUST 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS
4 TO 5 FT.
SCA POSTED DE BAY THRU FRIDAY MORNING TO COVER CAA NW WIND GUSTS
NEAR 25 KT.
FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES AT VARYING RATES THROUGH FRIDAY. MDT ZY
SHOULD OCCUR ON PORTIONS OF THE ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING AND AN
ADVY ISSUED (SEE MWW).
ICE IS FORMING ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE AND DELAWARE BAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS AND A LITTLE INFO IN
THE MWW.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR OUR ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY FROM 09Z SATURDAY THROUGH 0Z SUNDAY.
FURTHER DETAILS ON CONDITIONS SATURDAY ARE BELOW. THE START AND END
TIMES OF GALE CONDITIONS MAY DIFFER AND NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY IF/WHEN THE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A
GALE WARNING.
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY INCREASING. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40
TO 45 KNOT RANGE LOOK PROBABLE, WITH SEAS INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY
AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IN THE 15Z-20Z
SATURDAY AFTN TIMEFRAME IN THE STILL VERY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
FOR THE ATLC SNJ AND DEL WATERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE DECREASING TO SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS MAY DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO, MARGINAL BLOW OUT
TIDES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY ALONG THE COASTS OF NJ, DE, AND INTO DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AND AREA
WATERS MONDAY MORNING, WITH SCA LEVELS EXPECTED AND A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
EXPECTED.
FREEZING SPRAY OF VARYING RATES IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
WATER ISSUES ALONG THE COAST, ALONG DELAWARE BAY AND ON THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING MARGINAL BLOW OUT TIDES AT MOST AROUND THE TIMES OF LOW
TIDE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEASONALLY..KILG AND KPHL ARE NOW RANKED TOP 25 SNOWFALL THROUGH
AT LEAST 120 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING.
KPHL FOR JANUARY IS NOW TOP 5 ALL TIME SNOWFALL DATING BACK TO 1872.
KPHL JAN SNOWFALL RANKING
1 33.9 1996
2 28.9 1918
3 25.2 2011
4 23.4 1978
5 22.5 2014
6 21.5 1935
7 20.0 1893
8 19.7 1961
9 16.1 1912
10 16.0 1966
THE RANKING BOTH SEASONALLY AND MONTHLY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AS
THE LAGGED ENSEMBLE CFSV2 FOR THE PAST 9 DAYS (SINCE THE 13TH) HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 4 WEEKS (THRU AT LEAST MID FEBRUARY). COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
POSSIBLE SNOW EVENTS. AM FAR FROM SURE WHATS DRIVING THE PATTERN...
IT APPEARS TO BE COMBINED -EPO AND THE CURRENTLY STRONG +PNA.
N ATLC BLOCKING (-NAO) HAS BEEN NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE MOST OF THE
WINTER SO FAR... AND SO IT APPEARS THE NAO HAS NOT BEEN MUCH..IF
ANY..FACTOR IN THIS WINTERS COLD.
IN ANY CASE...THE DEVELOPING PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN (VARIABILITY
DOES ALLOW FOR A DAY OR 2 PER WEEK OF NORMAL TEMPS) ASSURES US OF
A WELL BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY AVG TEMPS HERE IN THE MOUNT HOLLY FCST
AREA FOR JANUARY AND PROBABLY THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FIRST
HALF OF FEBRUARY AT LEAST MODELED BY THE CFSV2. THIS FITS THE CPC
DAY8-14 AND MONTHLY OUTLOOKS AS CURRENTLY POSTED THIS MORNING.
VULNERABLE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WE ARE FCSTG TO BE
APPROACHED WITHIN 2 DEGREES ARE LISTED BELOW.
WHILE WE THOUGHT KACY WOULD GET CLOSE TO RER LOW THIS MORNING...THE
WIND MIXED JUST ENOUGH ALL NIGHT AND THE LOW THERE WAS 6 ABOVE...
WHILE IT DROPPED TO 5 BELOW AT KMIV AT THE LAST MINUTE VIA LATE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
1/28
KRDG 2 2005
KMPO -4 2005
THE NEXT 10 DAYS...
00Z/23 GFS/ECMWF OP FCSTS HAVE TEMPS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TOMORROW-FRIDAY THE 24TH, AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK (28) AND
THE ECMWF MAY BE BACKING OFF ON WEDNESDAY THE 29TH DUE TO A SNOW RISK.
FOR KPHL...THE JANUARY AVG TEMP IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE NEAR
28.1 OR 4.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...NOT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE 60 DAYS
OF PERSISTENT EXCESSIVE COLD OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS BUT STILL
SIGNIFICANT. SINCE LATE NOVEMBER...OUR AVG TEMP IN THE PHL CWA
HAS AVG`D BELOW NORMAL!
THE PROJECTED MONTHLY JANUARY AVG TEMP FOR PHL SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST SINCE 2004 WHEN THE AVG TEMPS WAS 26.1 DEGREES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1205 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. AN EAST WEST
COLD FRONT FROM BOSTON TO BUFFALO LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MORE LOW
PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
ARCTIC HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM ESTF UPDATE SENT 1145 AM WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. WEST
WIND GUSTS INCREASED SLIGHTLY.
TODAY...BANDS OF BRIEFLY MDT TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED LATE
THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY N AND NW OF KPHL WITH 1/2-1 INCH AMTS IN AN
HR OR OR LESS. THIS PER 15Z HRRR AND RAP AS WELL VERY LARGE LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES... DECENT BL RH OVER 50 PCT AND COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE OF BEST AXIS FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...THO MASS FIELDS OF VORTICITY
AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST VCNTY KMPO-KABE ESEWD THRU KSMQ AND KTTN.
WILL ADJUST AT 3 PM AS RADAR AND REALITY DICTATE.
TONIGHT...THE CFRONT PASSES SEWD THRU THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 07Z AND WITH WINDS SHIFTING LIGHT NW (GUST NEAR 15 MPH URBAN
CENTERS)... AND SNOWCOVER..TEMPS PLUMMET LATE AFTER THE PRE COLD
FRONTAL WARMER WEDGE OF TEMPS IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. SO SCT-BKN
CLOUDS THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR LATE.
WARMER NAM TEMPS THIS EVENING THEN COLDER MAV TEMPS LATE AS
DECOUPLING OCCURS. OTRW 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/23 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.
WILL PROBABLY ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVY POCONOS AT 330 PM FOR THE
PERIOD 6Z/23-16Z/24.
ALL THE UPDATED 12Z/23 TEMP/DEW/WIND AND GUST GRIDS ARE SENT AND
IN THE PRODUCTS.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...A COLDER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NW WIND GUST 20
MPH IN THE MORNING BACK TO W DURING THE AFTN. 12Z/23 50 50 BLENDED
MOS GUIDANCE ALREADY APPLIED TO THE PRODUCTS EXCEPT RAN WITH THE
COLDER GFS TEMPS. -20C AT 850...TOUGH TO WARM MUCH AT ALL FROM 12Z
THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SONG, DIFFERENT VERSE, AS THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SEVERAL AREAS OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DURG THE EXTENDED PD. IN
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL TO AT
LEAST POTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT THE START OF THE PD, THE HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE AND EXPECT
COLD AND DRY WX TO PREVAIL INTO FRI NIGHT. THEN, THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT A BIT SEWD AND THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE IN ERN CAN TO
TRACK EWD. ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL MOVE W TO E ACRS THE AREA DURG
SAT. THIS ALBERTA CLIPPER SYS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMS, MAINLY OVER NRN AREAS.
BEHIND THE CFP, THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEN ANOTHER VERY WK LOW IS FCST TO MOVE OUT OF THE MID MS VLY AND
TRACK EWD TWD THE MID ATLC FOR SUN NIGHT INTO ERLY MON. THE MDLS
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYS THIS CYCLE. THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE NWD SYS AND EVEN LESS QPF OVER OUR AREA.
SO FOR NOW, WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS, WITHOUT CHANGES, BUT IF THESE
TREND CONTINUE THEY COULD PSBLY BE LOWERED MORE OR REMOVED ENTIRELY.
ONCE THIS LOW MOVES BY TO THE NORTH ANOTHER MASSIVE HIGH WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND COVER ABOUT 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WX RATHER QUIET BUT COLD THRU MIDWEEK.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH BELOW NRML. THE OPTIMISTIC TEMP
FCST HAS SOME AREAS GETTING ABV FREEZING ON SAT AND MON. THE
PESSIMISTIC TEMP FCST KEEPS MOST EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING THRU THE
ENTIRE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR BECOMING CIGS AOA 3500 FT THIS AFTN WITH SCT
BRIEF IFR CONDS IN IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS (BANDS OF)...MOSTLY N AND
NW OF KPHL. WNW WINDS G 20 KT BACKING TO WSW LATER THIS AFTN.
TONIGHT...SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT WITH REMAINING SCT IFR CONDS IN SNOW
SHOWERS PROGRESSING SEWD VCNTY KPNE-KPHL-KMIV-KACY AND KILG 00Z-06Z
TIME FRAME WITH A WSHIFT TO NW AND A FEW G15KT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES SEWD THRU THE TAF SITES.
FRIDAY...VFR. NW WIND GUST 20 KT IN THE MORNING BACK TO WEST DURING
THE AFTN. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
PSBLY IFR IN SNOW SHWRS AS A CDFNT TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST. ALSO,
GUSTY SW TO W WIND EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. MDT CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUN NIGHT AND MON...VFR EARLY WITH POSSIBLE LOWER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHWRS.
THIS SYS HAS TRENDED FURTHER N THIS CYCLE AND THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SNOW SHWRS WOULD BE OVER NRN AREA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT. THOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER...WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ON THE BAY...WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT THIS EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK
BEFORE DECIDING ON AN SCA OR NOT.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
MARGINAL MDT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING IN PLACES TODAY...NOT QUITE
ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
ICE IS FORMING ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE AND DELAWARE BAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH NW WIND GUSTS REACHING AROUND
30 KNOTS.
FRI NIGHT...CONDS MAY DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR A TIME.
SAT...A CFP IS EXPECTED, WITH THE SW FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE LOOK
PROBABLE, WITH SEAS INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY AS WELL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IN THE 15Z- 20Z SATURDAY AFTN
TIME-FRAME IN THE STILL VERY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FOR THE ATLC
SNJ AND DEL WATERS.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...DECREASING WIND FROM GALE TO SCA AND SHOULD BE SUB
ADVISORY BY LATER SUN. SEAS WILL LIKELY RESPOND IN KIND.
MON...ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION AND AREA WATERS INTO
MON, WITH SCA LEVELS EXPECTED AND A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
FREEZING SPRAY OF VARYING RATES IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEASONALLY..KILG AND KPHL ARE NOW RANKED TOP 25 SNOWFALL THROUGH
AT LEAST 120 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING.
KPHL FOR JANUARY IS NOW TOP 5 ALL TIME SNOWFALL DATING BACK TO 1872.
KPHL JAN SNOWFALL RANKING
1 33.9 1996
2 28.9 1918
3 25.2 2011
4 23.4 1978
5 22.5 2014
6 21.5 1935
7 20.0 1893
8 19.7 1961
9 16.1 1912
10 16.0 1966
THE RANKING BOTH SEASONALLY AND MONTHLY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AS
THE LAGGED ENSEMBLE CFSV2 FOR THE PAST 9 DAYS (SINCE THE 13TH) HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 4 WEEKS (THRU AT LEAST MID FEBRUARY). COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
POSSIBLE SNOW EVENTS. AM FAR FROM SURE WHATS DRIVING THE PATTERN...
IT APPEARS TO BE COMBINED -EPO AND THE CURRENTLY STRONG +PNA.
N ATLC BLOCKING (-NAO) HAS BEEN NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE MOST OF THE
WINTER SO FAR... AND SO IT APPEARS THE NAO HAS NOT BEEN MUCH..IF
ANY..FACTOR IN THIS WINTERS COLD.
IN ANY CASE...THE DEVELOPING PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN (VARIABILITY
DOES ALLOW FOR A DAY OR 2 PER WEEK OF NORMAL TEMPS) ASSURES US OF
A WELL BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY AVG TEMPS HERE IN THE MOUNT HOLLY FCST
AREA FOR JANUARY AND PROBABLY THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FIRST
HALF OF FEBRUARY AT LEAST MODELED BY THE CFSV2. THIS FITS THE CPC
DAY8-14 AND MONTHLY OUTLOOKS AS CURRENTLY POSTED THIS MORNING.
VULNERABLE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WE ARE FCSTG TO BE
APPROACHED WITHIN 2 DEGREES ARE LISTED BELOW.
WHILE WE THOUGHT KACY WOULD GET CLOSE TO RER LOW THIS MORNING...THE
WIND MIXED JUST ENOUGH ALL NIGHT AND THE LOW THERE WAS 6 ABOVE...
WHILE IT DROPPED TO 5 BELOW AT KMIV AT THE LAST MINUTE VIA LATE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
1/28
KRDG 2 2005
THE NEXT 10 DAYS...
00Z/23 GFS/ECMWF OP FCSTS HAVE TEMPS 15 BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW-
FRIDAY THE 24TH, AND THEN AGAIN TUE AND WED OF NEXT WEEK (28 AND
29).
FOR KPHL...THE JANUARY AVG TEMP IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE NEAR
28.1 OR 4.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...NOT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE 60 DAYS
OF PERSISTENT EXCESSIVE COLD OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS BUT STILL
SIGNIFICANT. SINCE LATE NOVEMBER...OUR AVG TEMP IN THE PHL CWA
HAS AVG`D BELOW NORMAL!
THE PROJECTED MONTHLY JANUARY AVG TEMP FOR PHL SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST SINCE 2004 WHEN THE AVG TEMPS WAS 26.1 DEGREES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1205P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1205P
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 1205P
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG 1205P
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
954 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
AS OF 3 AM CST...2 AM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLOUDY. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP UNDER THE DENSE CLOUD COVER...ONLY REACHING
THE LOW 10S TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WSR-88D RADAR DATA
INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST COLORADO. SO FAR AT
GOODLAND...ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN RECEIVED BUT SNOWFALL
RATES HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO AN HOUR OR TWO AGO.
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...MOVING SOUTH. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND TODAY...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
PRESSING SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SNOWFALL SHOULD
QUICKLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING AND HAVE COMPLETELY EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z...NOON CST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT BUT ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SUN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
20S. AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE TODAY
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
REGARDING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE LATEST RUNS OF CONSSHORT AND THE HRRR SHOW THE LOW AT
KMCK AROUND -1. WITH WEAKENING WINDS...THERE ARE SOME DOUBTS THAT WE
WILL REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE AND
IF CRITERIA IS MET...IT WILL BE MARGINAL. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE
ADVISORY RUNNING AS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE WE REACH CRITERIA AT A
FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS REMAIN HIGHER.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY INCREASE IN
SPEED OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AS CUSTOMARY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...SOME OF THE
LOWER LYING AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO GO CALM BRIEFLY WILL BE ABLE TO
DROP LIKE A ROCK BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN ONCE THE WINDS RETURN. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO MID TEENS ARE
ADVERTISED.
A DRASTIC FLIP BACK TO WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850 MB MOVING IN BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD RECEDE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST. MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED IN SPREAD SOME FOR
FRIDAY BUT AM CONFIDENT IN THE WARMER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ANOTHER 700 MB JET OF
WINDS WILL NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
MIXING...STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE
YET AGAIN. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...MORE INFO ON THIS BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE AGAIN...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS
FOR SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN FRIDAY. ALSO...HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...KEEPING THE HUMIDITIES SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR MASS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND
ALLBLEND GAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY. DECIDED RAIN
OR SNOW FOR THE WEATHER GRIDS GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WET BULB TEMPERATURES
WOULD LIKELY BE AROUND OR BELOW ZERO MAKING SNOW MOST LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 951 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN
COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST THU JAN 23 2014
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. SOME OF THE
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE CANADIAN AND THE NAM...INCREASE DEWPOINTS
DURING THE DAY INTO THE 20S AND 30S. SIMPLY DO NOT BELIEVE THIS
BASED ON INDICATIONS FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE FACT THE AIR IS
COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL FOR
DEWPOINTS WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE DRY AIR MUCH BETTER. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN. DAYTIME
MIXING SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE STRONGER WINDS AND BRING THE
GUSTS DOWN. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH. THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS THAT STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
BEFORE A WARNING. FIRST...POTENTIAL CLOUDS MOVING IN THE AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES IN. SECOND...ANY POTENTIAL SNOW COVER
REMAINING COULD PREVENT HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING OFF AS MUCH AS
CURRENTLY THOUGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
FIRE WEATHER...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
321 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE
BRINGS A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. THE WARM UP WILL BE
BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT AND USHERS IN COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS VERY THIN CIRRUS LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AND QUESTION IS WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON OVERNIGHT
RADIATIVE COOLING IN OTHERWISE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR VERY COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE...BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE
THAT HIGH LEVEL RH WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ABOUT 06Z. COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...IT SHOULD RESULT IN RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THUS...DON/T
SEE A REASON TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS AND TEMPS BASICALLY
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM
-7F AT SPRINGFIELD TO -20 TO -28F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NE
KINGDOM. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...GENERALLY LOOKING FOR -10 TO
-20F. WIND CHILL WILL NOT BE A PARTICULAR ISSUE WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 5 MPH OR LESS. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT IN A RECENTLY ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF COLD BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND S-SW
WINDS PICKING UP TO 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTN
FLURRY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH POPS 10-20 PERCENT...BUT
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. AIR MASS MODERATES
SLIGHTLY AS WELL WITH DEVELOPING S-SW FLOW...THOUGH IT WILL STILL
BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. STAYED ON THE HIGHER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW BASED ON PREVAILING S-SW FLOW AND AS A CARRY
OVER OF LOW MOS TEMP BIAS OBSERVED THIS AFTN. HIGHS GENERALLY
AROUND 10F EXCEPT MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR FAR NERN VT.
DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT
INDUCES A STRONGER SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/GEORGIAN BAY
VCNTY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASING P-GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPS LIKELY RISE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (INTO
THE TEENS) AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOULD SEE 15-25
MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. POPS INCREASE 40-70 PERCENT RANGE 06-12Z SATURDAY...HIGHEST
WEST. SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN SPOTS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WITH LOWEST AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SOME
SHADOWING EFFECTS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS NRN NY...INDUCING BROAD
SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
(PW VALUES ONLY 0.1-0.2")...SO TOTAL SNOWFALL AMTS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 1-3" RANGE. CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTN WITH
GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES. MAY SEE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO LIGHT
SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY...BUT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT ADVISORIES BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. SWD
EXTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD THRU THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND SHIFT AND FALLING TEMPS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN/CENTRAL GREENS BEFORE AIR MASS DRIES OUT. AN
ADDITION INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF. TEMPS WILL FALL STEADILY SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO AROUND -25C ACROSS NRN NY BY 06Z SUNDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM 0 TO +5F ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VT...BUT 0 TO -10F ACROSS
NRN NY AND FAR NRN VT WITH THIS NEXT ARCTIC SURGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 221 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING INTO SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER COLD
MORNING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HRS...SHIFTING EAST OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON AS
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE GREAT LKS REGION. MDL DIFFERENCES AS
TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH LATEST GFS TAKING SYSTEM OVER THE
CWA AND THE LATEST ECMWF TAKING CLIPPER JUST TO OUR NORTH. GFS
SOLUTION WILL BRING BETTER CHANCE FOR -SW...BUT WILL OPT FOR A
SPLIT OF THE TWO MDL RUNS AND KEEP SYSTEM TRACKING OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. GFS IS FASTER CLRING PRECIP AS WELL DUE TO MORE OF A
WEST-EAST TRACK VERSUS A NE TRACK IN THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF LINGERING -SW ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM W/ HIR ELEV SEEING
BEST CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE -SW FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AFTNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...SFC RIDGE SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...KEEPING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA RE-ENFORCED
BY A COUPLE TROUGHS PASSING THRU THE GREAT LKS REGION FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME LIGHT -SW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE DACKS WITH SW FLOW
COMING OFF LK ONTARIO. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS AND OVERNGT LOWS AS EACH
SUCCESSIVE SYSTEM BRINGS DOWN A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF CD CANADIAN
AIR. MON NGT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLDEST WITH RIDGE
CRESTING OVER REGION BFR SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. TEMPS TO
RANGE HERE FROM -5F TO -15F BUT WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT FROM
EXITING WNW UPSLOPE CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR COND THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SCT-BKN LOW AND MID CLDS...FROM SCT020 SCT-BKN100-150. SOME MVFR
HZ IN SLK FOR 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. MAINLY LGT/VAR THRU 07Z-09Z FRIDAY
THEN WSW 5-10KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS
WITH EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED HZ/IC POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS/BTV BTWN
08Z-12Z FRIDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF WIND SHEAR/TURBULENCE WL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. ARCTIC BOUNDARY SWINGS ACRS
OUR TAF SITES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR LIKELY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SFC HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION...HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
FOLLOWING:
1/24
BTV -22F/1948
MSS -30F/1976
MPV -22F/2011
1V4 -34F/1907
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/TABER
CLIMATE...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
106 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.UPADTE...
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...SO CANCELED THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. THE NEXT WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO
RISE UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION. OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
DECIDED TO HANG ONTO THE CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THIS
UPDATE. WIND CHILLS OVERALL REMAIN 15 TO 25 BELOW WEST...AND 25
TO 40 BELOW EAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THOUGH THE
MORNING...AND WILL MONITOR IN CASE SOME AREAS CAN BE CANCELED
EARLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RADIATED AS COLD AS MODELS WERE ADVERTISING
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE NOT
REFLECTING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REPLACE
THE WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. AREAS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE CLOSE TO 40 BELOW ZERO...SO KEPT THE
WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TODAY...AND WINDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY MORNING WERE NOT TRENDING AS LOW AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE RUC13 MODEL H925 WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST AT AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA (WHERE THE ARCTIC HIGH AXIS WAS SITUATED) THE RUC13 WAS
SHOWING WEST WINDS AT 5 MPH. THIS WAS APPARENTLY ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP
SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
CREATE JUST ENOUGH MIXING SO THAT TEMPERATURES WERE NOT BOTTOMING
OUT AS THEY WOULD IN CALM CONDITIONS.
THAT SAID...WIND CHILLS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO AT 3 AM
CST. THUS WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WARNING SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE AND DO
NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES WITH WIND CHILL HEADLINES...AND WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...REACHING IOWA/KANSAS BY EVENING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA THIS
MORNING TO THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
WINDS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH.
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND A
QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED - MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT (AN INCH OR LESS)...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT RECOVERING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE
ZERO TO 5 TO 15 ABOVE CENTRAL AND 15 TO 25 IN THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM HIGHS TODAY WITH PLENTY OF MIXING
AND SINCE THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE.
THIS WILL SET UP FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
A CLIPPER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY GENERATING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL
GENERATE PRECIP CHANCES...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE GENERALLY ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF
HIGHWAY 52...AND GENERALLY ALL SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY 52. AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION
SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD FRIDAY EVENING IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
BY SATURDAY...A BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM MINOT TO ROLLA TO
JAMESTOWN...AND FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM CROSBY TO GARRISON TO
BISMARCK.
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD GENERATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS STATEWIDE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT IS A DAY 4
FORECAST...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING WATCH HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT
AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
BY MONDAY...DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS
FROM 25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE STATE.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
PATTERN. THE ECMWF PROGS ANOTHER CLIPPER TO AFFECT THE STATE WHEREAS
THE GFS KEEPS THE CLIPPER AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
ROCKIES. WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH AND INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ALL AERODROMES BACK TO
VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. AN FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE ACROSS AS THE
WAVE PASSES...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR
KMOT AND KJMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
354 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
DROP. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
AND EVEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SLOWLY SWING TOWARDS N TX TONIGHT WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. COLD AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CONROE NORTHWARD MAINLY AROUND 9PM. FREEZING TEMPS THEN
WORK NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR HOUSTON
ALTHOUGH IT COULD HAPPEN SOONER WITH PRECIP FALLING AND WET BULB
THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MODELS CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING THIS DRIER AIR OUT OF THE AREA OR SLOWLY MOVING IN MIXING
WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT IS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
AS JET DYNAMICS SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OVER THE AREA...NAM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT.
GFS NOT AS MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SOLID 0.1 TO 0.25
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRI. NAM ALSO HAS QUITE
A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS IN SEVERAL LAYERS MAINLY 850MB-700MB
PEAKING AROUND 06Z THROUGH 12Z. THE MAIN ISSUE BEFORE WAS WOULD
THERE BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP AND WHETHER DRY SUB FREEZING LAYER
WOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING GROUND. THAT HAS CHANGED AND AS A
RESULT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE MET ACROSS THE
AREA. LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER 18Z FRI SO EXPECT
PRECIP TO END IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM STILL HOLDS ONTO
PRECIP LONGER ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THINK AREAS NORTH OF CONROE WILL START WITH
RAIN TRANSITION TO MIX SLEET/FZRA UNTIL 06Z FRI. MAY THEN SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS.
POSSIBLE TO HAVE A BAND OF 1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
CALDWELL/COLLEGE STATION ACROSS HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. ICE
ACCUMULATION MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE A MESS
OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BASICALLY CONROE SOUTH THOUGH HOUSTON TO THE
COAST EXPECT RAIN GOING TO FZRA/SLEET APPROACHING MIDNIGHT WHEN
TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AT SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BUT SUPPOSE A FLAKE OR TWO COULD MIX IN WITH
SLEET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM NOSE AROUND 850-800MB IN
SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT SLEET AND DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF
SUBFREEZING LAYER...FREEZING RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. POSSIBLE TO
GET FREEZING RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS GALVESTON BY 12Z FRI WHICH COULD
CAUSE FURTHER TRAVEL ISSUES.
ACCUMULATIONS...OVERALL EXPECT HALF INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR
NORTHERN AREAS AS OUTLINED ABOVE. GIVE MESO MODEL OUTPUT FROM TX
TECH WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS...EVEN 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS. FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERAL 0.05 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ICE
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG I-10 AND US59 AND BACK TOWARDS
HOUSTON. LOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BUT STILL
A RISK MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WEEKEND DOES LOOK TO BE WARMER AFTER FRIDGID FRIDAY. NEXT FRONT
STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL PUT MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW
FREEZING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WINTER
WEATHER SCENARIO AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED OUT WITH FRONT.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
ALREADY SEEING SNOW IN CLL OBS THIS AFTN. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING
PCPN TYPES/TIMES WITH AMENDMENTS THUS FAR. END TIMES FOR THE
WINTRY MIX MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED PAST THE 15Z CURRENTLY IN THE
TAFS FOR TO- MORROW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NRN SITES (CLL/UTS/CXO).
41
&&
.MARINE...
WENT AHEAD WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OUR MARINE AREAS WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE AND NO CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT CONFIGURATIONS WILL
BE COMING WITH THIS NEXT PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO DE-
CREASE BY TOMORROW/FRI AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND
BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE TX
AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUN OVERNIGHT/VERY EARLY MON. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 26 36 29 60 41 / 70 30 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 28 35 30 60 41 / 80 50 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 30 37 36 56 48 / 70 60 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...
TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...
LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
WALLER...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1205 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
22 TO 23 UTC...THEN DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON FRIDAY AND BECOME BREEZY BY AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
UPDATE...
COLD AND VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND WITH CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP.
11 AM WEST TEXAS MESONET READINGS RANGE FROM 28 IN DENVER CITY TO
15 AT FRIONA. WE EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO BE PRETTY STUBBORN
TODAY...SUCH THAT OUR FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS OF UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. STILL...THERE MAY
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WARMING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IF THE CLOUDS
DO BREAK UP...SO FOR THIS UPDATE WE/VE ONLY BROUGHT THE FORECAST
HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...STILL VERY
CHILLY EITHER WAY. WE ARE ALSO STILL LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES ACROSS THE DW TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OF THE VIRGA VARIETY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
AVIATION...
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WAS POISED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KLBB THIS
MORNING AS THE STRONGER SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
INTO THE REGION. TIMING THIS LAYER IS DIFFICULT WITH INCONSISTENCIES
AMONG THE SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND THE LAYER NOW PARTIALLY HIDDEN
BY HIGHER CLOUDS...BUT WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH
MOVES A 2000 FOOT DECK OVER KLBB BY 12Z TO 13Z. MUCH DRIER AIR
ALREADY WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO KCDS WHICH WILL MAKE A LOWER
CLOUD DECK VERY DIFFICULT TODAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OVERHEAD AS WELL...THOUGH THE DRYING WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE FOR CLEARING BY
THIS EVENING WHILE THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LET UP BY THEN
AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
VERY DRY AND COLDER AIR WAS INCREASINGLY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS THE SECONDARY SURGE WAS UNDERWAY. THIS DRY AIR WAS
UNDERCUTTING THE MODEST LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA WITH DECREASING RADAR TRENDS AND MORE
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE TO THE CLOUD BANDS. YET...WITH THE SURGING
ARCTIC AIRMASS THERE ALSO WERE EXPANDING LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. WE WILL RETAIN A SLIM
MENTION FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY BELIEVING
MODEL TRENDS SHOWING THE MAIN DRYING SPREADING EAST TO WEST DURING
THE DAY. VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES STILL SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME OVER WESTERN BORDER AREAS...WITH A MINOR DUSTING NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY UPWARDS THOUGH ACTUAL OUTCOME WILL DEPEND ON
ABILITY OF CLOUDS TO BREAK. ADJUSTED MAXIMUMS TODAY ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MOST RECENT TRENDS FOR A STILL
COLD DAY NONE-THE-LESS. BY LATER TODAY THE DRY AIR WILL BE FULLY
ENTRENCHED WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND WE WILL GO INTO THE EARLY NIGHT
WITH A CLEARING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP
DURING THE EVENING...MAYBE APPROACHING MINIMUMS ON THE CAP-ROCK BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS. THIS
SHOULD HOLD UP MINIMUMS EARLY FRIDAY...PROBABLY STARTING MINOR
MODERATION BEFORE DAYBREAK NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THESE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILL READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LOWS FOR
TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE 40S AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF A 1040 MB
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. LOCATIONS NEAR THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES WITH THE QUICKER
SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND GREATER DISPLACEMENT FROM THE COLD DOME.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP ITS LONG STRANGLEHOLD ON THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER SUNDAY...LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE BOTH OF
THESE FRONTS...INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL EQUATE TO A FANTASTIC
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S EACH DAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE
PRECURSOR TO A POLAR AIRMASS LOOKING TO MOVE IN BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK. AFTER TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...COLD
AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN AS A SURFACE RIDGE LIES IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE AREA TUESDAY. WOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A
FASTER PUSH OF THIS FEATURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND AN ASSOCIATED
RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL THEREFORE ELECT TO LOWER HIGHS
FOR TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 40S WHILE STAYING ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS
IN THE 30S. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVERLY OPTIMISTIC IN
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE LIFT...SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WARMING SHOULD ENSUE BY MIDWEEK WHILE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS/EASTERN PACIFIC MAY FINALLY ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 22 9 48 24 63 / 20 0 0 0 0
TULIA 22 9 48 25 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 23 9 47 25 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 25 10 47 25 63 / 10 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 26 11 46 26 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 27 12 44 26 62 / 10 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 26 12 44 26 63 / 10 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 25 11 50 27 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 28 12 46 27 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 30 13 47 28 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
COLD AND VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND WITH CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP.
11 AM WEST TEXAS MESONET READINGS RANGE FROM 28 IN DENVER CITY TO
15 AT FRIONA. WE EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO BE PRETTY STUBBORN
TODAY...SUCH THAT OUR FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS OF UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. STILL...THERE MAY
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WARMING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IF THE CLOUDS
DO BREAK UP...SO FOR THIS UPDATE WE/VE ONLY BROUGHT THE FORECAST
HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...STILL VERY
CHILLY EITHER WAY. WE ARE ALSO STILL LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES ACROSS THE DW TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OF THE VIRGA VARIETY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
AVIATION...
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WAS POISED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KLBB THIS
MORNING AS THE STRONGER SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
INTO THE REGION. TIMING THIS LAYER IS DIFFICULT WITH INCONSISTENCIES
AMONG THE SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND THE LAYER NOW PARTIALLY HIDDEN
BY HIGHER CLOUDS...BUT WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH
MOVES A 2000 FOOT DECK OVER KLBB BY 12Z TO 13Z. MUCH DRIER AIR
ALREADY WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO KCDS WHICH WILL MAKE A LOWER
CLOUD DECK VERY DIFFICULT TODAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OVERHEAD AS WELL...THOUGH THE DRYING WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE FOR CLEARING BY
THIS EVENING WHILE THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LET UP BY THEN
AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
VERY DRY AND COLDER AIR WAS INCREASINGLY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS THE SECONDARY SURGE WAS UNDERWAY. THIS DRY AIR WAS
UNDERCUTTING THE MODEST LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA WITH DECREASING RADAR TRENDS AND MORE
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE TO THE CLOUD BANDS. YET...WITH THE SURGING
ARCTIC AIRMASS THERE ALSO WERE EXPANDING LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. WE WILL RETAIN A SLIM
MENTION FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY BELIEVING
MODEL TRENDS SHOWING THE MAIN DRYING SPREADING EAST TO WEST DURING
THE DAY. VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES STILL SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME OVER WESTERN BORDER AREAS...WITH A MINOR DUSTING NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY UPWARDS THOUGH ACTUAL OUTCOME WILL DEPEND ON
ABILITY OF CLOUDS TO BREAK. ADJUSTED MAXIMUMS TODAY ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MOST RECENT TRENDS FOR A STILL
COLD DAY NONE-THE-LESS. BY LATER TODAY THE DRY AIR WILL BE FULLY
ENTRENCHED WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND WE WILL GO INTO THE EARLY NIGHT
WITH A CLEARING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP
DURING THE EVENING...MAYBE APPROACHING MINIMUMS ON THE CAP-ROCK BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS. THIS
SHOULD HOLD UP MINIMUMS EARLY FRIDAY...PROBABLY STARTING MINOR
MODERATION BEFORE DAYBREAK NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THESE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILL READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LOWS FOR
TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE 40S AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF A 1040 MB
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. LOCATIONS NEAR THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES WITH THE QUICKER
SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND GREATER DISPLACEMENT FROM THE COLD DOME.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP ITS LONG STRANGLEHOLD ON THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER SUNDAY...LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE BOTH OF
THESE FRONTS...INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL EQUATE TO A FANTASTIC
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S EACH DAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE
PRECURSOR TO A POLAR AIRMASS LOOKING TO MOVE IN BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK. AFTER TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...COLD
AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN AS A SURFACE RIDGE LIES IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE AREA TUESDAY. WOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A
FASTER PUSH OF THIS FEATURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND AN ASSOCIATED
RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL THEREFORE ELECT TO LOWER HIGHS
FOR TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 40S WHILE STAYING ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS
IN THE 30S. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVERLY OPTIMISTIC IN
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE LIFT...SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WARMING SHOULD ENSUE BY MIDWEEK WHILE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS/EASTERN PACIFIC MAY FINALLY ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 22 9 48 24 63 / 20 0 0 0 0
TULIA 22 9 48 25 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 23 9 47 25 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 25 10 47 25 63 / 10 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 26 11 46 26 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 27 12 44 26 62 / 10 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 26 12 44 26 63 / 10 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 25 11 50 27 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 28 12 46 27 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 30 13 47 28 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33