Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/22/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
323 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...WINDS STILL GUSTY ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER...THOUGH
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING. EARLIER A GUST TO 55 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT HOLYOKE AT 155 PM. THERE WAS ALSO SOME BLOWING DUST
IN THE AREA. FURTHER WEST...WINDS MUCH WEAKER. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GRADIENT WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z WITH
WINDS DECREASING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BEHIND EXITING UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST RAP SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW
INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KTS AT MOUNTAIN TOP. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
OVERHEAD WILL HELP INCREASE DOWNWARD MOTION AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH A POSSIBILITY. CLEARING SKIES
AND LESS WIND WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20S...EXCEPT TEENS LOW LYING
AREAS AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO COLORADO.
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP GUSTY
WINDS GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG FOOTHILLS. THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AND FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS. GRADIENT MUCH WEAKER THAT TODAY...SO GUSTS WON`T BE AS
STRONG. WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON WED IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK UPPER LVL TROUGH. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NERN
CO BY WED AFTN WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN
YESTERDAY. THUS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER NERN CO. FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING WEST OF THE AREA AS ONLY SOME WK MID
LVL QG ASCENT IS SHOWN. IN ADDITION AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW
LVL UPSLOPE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. CURRENT CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN CO. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE MUCH
COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.
BY THU AFTN MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN CO WITH NO LOW
LVL UPSLOPE AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS EAST AND SE OF THE
AREA. THUS SNOW CHANCES SHOULD END BY MIDDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI RATHER DRY NNW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SO
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND
WITH READINGS IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO.
FOR THE WEEKEND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NWLY WITH NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NEAR THE
WY...NE BORDER. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL
ACROSS NERN CO BASED ON LATEST DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK SURGE
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO DECREASE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY
02Z. DRAINAGE FLOW TO THEN DEVELOP WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KDEN
AND KAPA AND WESTERLY AT KBJC. SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KBJC OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 8 KTS. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
735 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
...STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST...
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY A VERY
DEEP AND SHARP TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS NOW
PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING AN
IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN ITS WAKE OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THIS STRONG DISTURBANCE
ALOFT/PV ANOMALY ARE CURRENTLY FORCING A RAPID AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THAT HAS BEEN...AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ONGOING SNOWSTORM IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN
STATES.
TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA IS A VERY
WELL DEFINED AND STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS NOW ENTERED THE
FLORIDA NATURE COAST AND WILL QUICKLY SURGE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE BEST DEEP
LAYER SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOW EXITING TO OUR EAST...THERE
IS STILL SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FOCUS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS. ALL RAIN CHANCES
HAVE ENDED FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD AS OF THIS
DISCUSSION...AND THE LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...LAST OF THE SHOWERS END OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. AS WAS DISCUSSED LAST
NIGHT...THIS FRONT HAS AN ARCTIC ORIGIN AND THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS TYPE
OF PROFILE CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY THE NWP GUIDANCE...AND VERIFIED
BY UPSTREAM RAOBS. THE COLDEST AIR IS LOCATED IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
950-925MB...AND THEN WARMS/BECOMES INVERTED ABOVE THIS LEVEL TOWARD
850MB. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO REALLY FILTER IN THE COLDER AND
DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE IN PLACE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE ONLY
LOCATIONS IT APPEARS THE RUN THE RISK OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE UP TOWARD NORTHERN CITRUS/LEVY COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND A STEADY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY FOR ALL ZONES BY THE
TIME FOLKS ARE HEADING OUT FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT...THE ARCTIC THERMAL PROFILE WILL INHIBIT
DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH ITS INVERTED STRUCTURE AND HENCE
WE ARE LOOKING AT A WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. OUR NORTHERN AREA WILL
STRUGGLE TOWARD 50 FOR A HIGH...WHILE THE I-4 CORRIDOR STRUGGLES
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S...AND ONLY LOWER 60S DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE AND
LEE COUNTIES. THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS THE GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE UNDER A VERY
DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR A
LIKELY BOUNDARY LAYER DE-COUPLING SCENARIO...AND A VERY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MORE
LOCATIONS A THREAT FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MAKE FOR
A MUCH LARGER DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURES FROM PLACE TO PLACE. MUCH
OF THE AREA IS UNDER EITHER A FREEZE WATCH OR HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR SITE SPECIFIC FORECASTS AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAMPA FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED LOW
TEMPS AND SPECIFIC WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR YOUR LOCATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
22/00Z-23/00Z: ISOLD SHRA MOVING THROUGH BUT WITH ONLY LIMITED
IMPACT TO KFMY AND KRSW WHICH HAVE VCSH TIL 04Z. PREVAILING VFR VSBY
AND CIGS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN THE EVENING.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BECOME NW THEN NORTH AND CALM DOWN IN THE
MORNING AND BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS GOING FOR ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINING GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A RE-ENFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF...AND EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY HEADLINES
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 43 54 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 49 62 38 68 / 20 0 0 0
GIF 40 56 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 48 56 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 35 52 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 46 54 44 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.
HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
LEVY-INLAND PASCO-POLK.
FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COASTAL PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK-
SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
213 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
NE/KS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE APPARENT BY DRY LAYER ON WV IMAGERY AND
PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SOUTHERN NE/NORTHERN KS...IS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA.
REGARDING CURRENT WIND ADVISORY...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE
CURRENTLY HITTING CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 39-40KT REPORTED. WHILE IT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD YET...UPSTREAM OBS ARE WELL OVER CRITERIA...AND AN
AREA OF BLOWING DUST ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE. WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME WITH
PEAK DAYTIME MIXING THAT I AM COMFORTABLE LETTING THE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AS IS. I DO HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT NEAR RFW
CRITERIA BEING MET...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
HIGHER TD VALUES ADVECTING FROM THE NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SO I
WILL MONITOR SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RH WILL PROBABLY HOLD STEADY OR
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LOCATIONS WHERE
WINDS GO CALM COULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS GOOD WAA ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING LEE TROUGH
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO MILD TEMPS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. RH VALUES RANGING FROM 13-18 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA COULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS ON
NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...AND I AM WONDERING WHETHER WE WILL
REALLY SEE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER...SO I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING
ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. POPS WILL DECREASE WITH TIME FROM EAST
TO WEST WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH
THE LIFT THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE
BRIEF WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW, GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH. PLAN TO HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MOST AVAILABLE TO FLURRIES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. MOISTURE DRIES SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SO POPS WILL GO BACK TO NIL.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH
MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER
50S SUNDAY COOLING DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MONDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON JAN 20 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTED
VIS AS A RESULT OF BLOWING DUST. NW WINDS ALREADY COMING UP AT GLD
AND EXPECT THE SAME BY 19Z AT KMCK BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS.
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 40KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER AT KMCK. I AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ADD MORE THAN TEMPO VIS 6SM AT EITHER TERMINAL BASED ON PREVIOUS
WIND EVENT WITH SIMILAR WIND VALUES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND SHOULD REMAIN 12KT OR LESS THROUGH REMAINING TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-091.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1042 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1030AM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ANOTHER BRIEF UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY COVER FORECAST. SOME
CLEARING HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN AND
DOWNSLOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERRAIN MAY KEEP IT FROM BEING
A TOTALLY CLOUDY DAY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN.
930AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. FRONT HAS CROSSED BERLIN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 3 DEGREES AS IT MOVED IN. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT CONSISTENTLY ACROSS VERMONT AND
CANADA THIS MORNING... AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MINOR INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SNOW
SQUALLS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN ENHANCED
AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP FORECAST TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COOLING
BEHIND IT AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
630AM UPDATE...
THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR THE BML TO GNR REGION AS OF
1130Z. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
CROSSING THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF SQUALL IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z.
ADJUSTED CLOUDS/POPS AND DEW POINTS AS WELL.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE LATEST
HRRR RUN HAS THE SYSTEM REACHING THE COASTLINE BY ABOUT 19Z. IN
ITS WAKE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND WITH A
DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
SQUALL WITH THIS EVENT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY TODAY IN THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 30S
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC CHILL ARRIVES IN FULL STEAM TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE COLDER
MET MOS GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO RANGE. WITH NORTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING...WILL NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES SURROUNDING
THIS REGION IN THE FOOTHILLS.
ON TUESDAY...THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TILT. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE SURFACE LOW BRUSHES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. COULD
GO HIGHER ON THE POPS HOWEVER ALL OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MORE PROGRESSIVE...OUT TO SEA SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS TREND
WESTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE STORM FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ONLY POSSIBLY GRAZE PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS THE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
TEMPERATURES MAY MODIFY A LITTLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER THAT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY BEING ACCOMPANIED BY
SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SINCE THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIODS OF BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LOCALLY DROP VSBYS/CIGS TODAY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...GUSTS TO 25 KT OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
VERY COLD AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MEZ007>009.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ012>014.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR NHZ001-002.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NHZ003-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...CANNON/MARINE
MARINE...CANNON/MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
936 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
930AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. FRONT HAS CROSSED BERLIN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 3 DEGREES AS IT MOVED IN. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT CONSISTENTLY ACROSS VERMONT AND
CANADA THIS MORNING... AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MINOR INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SNOW
SQUALLS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN ENHANCED
AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP FORECAST TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COOLING
BEHIND IT AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
630AM UPDATE...
THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR THE BML TO GNR REGION AS OF
1130Z. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
CROSSING THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF SQUALL IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z.
ADJUSTED CLOUDS/POPS AND DEW POINTS AS WELL.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE LATEST
HRRR RUN HAS THE SYSTEM REACHING THE COASTLINE BY ABOUT 19Z. IN
ITS WAKE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND WITH A
DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
SQUALL WITH THIS EVENT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY TODAY IN THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 30S
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC CHILL ARRIVES IN FULL STEAM TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE COLDER
MET MOS GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO RANGE. WITH NORTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING...WILL NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES SURROUNDING
THIS REGION IN THE FOOTHILLS.
ON TUESDAY...THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TILT. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE SURFACE LOW BRUSHES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. COULD
GO HIGHER ON THE POPS HOWEVER ALL OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MORE PROGRESSIVE...OUT TO SEA SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS TREND
WESTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE STORM FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ONLY POSSIBLY GRAZE PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS THE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
TEMPERATURES MAY MODIFY A LITTLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER THAT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY BEING ACCOMPANIED BY
SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SINCE THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIODS OF BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LOCALLY DROP VSBYS/CIGS TODAY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...GUSTS TO 25 KT OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
VERY COLD AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MEZ007>009.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ012>014.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR NHZ001-002.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NHZ003-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...CANNON/MARINE
MARINE...CANNON/MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
624 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE FROPA NEAR THE BML TO GNR REGION AS OF 1130Z.
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF SQUALL IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z.
ADJUSTED CLOUDS/POPS AND DEW POINTS AS WELL.
PREV DISC...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN HAS THE SYSTEM REACHING THE COASTLINE BY ABOUT
19Z. IN ITS WAKE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND WITH A
DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
SQUALL WITH THIS EVENT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY TODAY IN THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 30S
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC CHILL ARRIVES IN FULL STEAM TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE COLDER
MET MOS GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO RANGE. WITH NORTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING...WILL NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES SURROUNDING
THIS REGION IN THE FOOTHILLS.
ON TUESDAY...THE GFS IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TILT. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE SURFACE LOW BRUSHES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. COULD
GO HIGHER ON THE POPS HOWEVER ALL OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MORE PROGRESSIVE...OUT TO SEA SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS TREND
WESTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE STORM FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ONLY PSBLY GRAZE PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MRNG WITH SOME LGT SNOW. AS THE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST WED AFTERNOON MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FOLLOW INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI AS HIGH PRES GRDLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NERN US. TEMPS MAY MODIFY A LITTLE SAT AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER THAT WILL DRIVE SEWD FOR SUNDAY BEING ACCOMPANIED BY SNW
SHWRS AND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SINCE THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIODS OF BITTER COLD TEMPS AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LOCALLY DROP VSBYS/CIGS TODAY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...GUSTS TO 25 KT OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
VERY COLD AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MEZ007>009.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ012>014.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR NHZ001-002.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NHZ003-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
656 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM
AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER
THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE
THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS
BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST
OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER
CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL.
HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN
AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA
THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD
MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN
ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL
EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING
INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC
TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.
SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE
OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER
REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING
ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES.
THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI
THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY
SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY.
WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/.
AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF
ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING
THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF
BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC.
WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT
TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO
-12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF
COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK
OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW
LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF
THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL
GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND
10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES
OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX
AND UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD MID TO LATE EVENING...IFR
CONDITIONS TO KCMX AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO KSAW
LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL
LIKELY MAKE FOR PREVAILING IFR VIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AT
KIWD/KCMX...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WED MORNING. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT N AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY WED AFTN AT
KIWD/KCMX...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLSN WILL RESULT
IN LIFR CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY VLIFR AT KCMX. WINDS/SNOW WON`T
BE QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT AT KIWD WHERE CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN IFR...
BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE. AT KSAW...CONDITIONS WON`T
DETERIORATE BLO IFR UNTIL BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH WILL
PLACE A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING...DURING WHICH IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
AND PASS A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
528 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ALF OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN CUTOFF UPR LO OVER QUEBEC AND RDG ALONG
THE W COAST. AT THE SFC...ARCTIC HI PRES IS CENTERED OVER SCENTRAL
CANADA. N FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -29C
AT PICKLE LAKE AND MOOSONEE IN ONTARIO...ACRS LK SUP IS CAUSING NMRS
WIND PARALLEL BANDS OF LK EFFECT SN THAT ARE AFFECTING DOWNSTREAM
AREAS NEAR THE BIG LAKE DESPITE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI AS WELL AS THE
FEED OF VERY DRY LLVL ARCTIC AIR. 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS SHOWED INVRN
BASE JUST BLO H9 UNDER THIS SUBSIDENCE. THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
HAS CAUSED SKIES TO TURN PCLDY OVER THE SCENTRAL. THERE IS ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV OVER THE DAKOTAS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALF...BUT
THIS DISTURBANCE IS ON A TRACK THAT WL TAKE IT WELL TO THE SW OF UPR
MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LES POPS AND SN AMOUNTS
AS WELL AS WIND CHILLS AND GOING HEADLINES.
TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC UNDER
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALF AND ON THE NRN FRINGES OF DAKOTA CLIPPER
SAILING SEWD TO THE S OF THE CWA. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO FALL TO AS
LO AS ABOUT -25C...SO LES WL CONTINUE IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS. BUT
AS THE SFC HI PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA SINKS TO SW MN BY 12Z TUE...
THE LLVL FLOW OVER UPR MI IS FCST TO BACK SLOWLY FM THE N TOWARD THE
NW WITH TIME...SO THE SN BANDS SHOULD SHIFT ACCORDINGLY. ALTHOUGH
THE LARGER SCALE H925-85 WL BE BACKING...A NUMBER OF THE HIER RES
MODELS STILL SHOW A NEAR SFC ENE LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF ONTARIO
ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING IMPACTING THE ERN CWA AND SHARPENING
LLVL CNVGC IN ALGER/WRN LUCE/ NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. DESPITE THE
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE... FCST SDNGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW INVRN BASES
UP NEAR 7K FT WITH LONGER FETCH OVER MORE OPEN ICE FREE WATER
ENHANCING MIXING. ALTHOUGH THE DGZ IS FCST TO LOWER TO WITHIN 1-2K
FT OF THE SFC...THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR GOING LES ADVY FOR THIS AREA.
SHIFTING WINDS/MORE ICE COVER OVER WRN LK SUP/LOWER INVRN BASE NEAR
3-4K FT/NEAR ABSENCE OF DGZ OVER THE W WITH COLDER...MORE UNMODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES WL FALL OVER THE
W. SINCE THE BACKING FLOW WL INTRODUCE MORE UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE W HALF OF UPR MI WITH MIN SFC TEMPS FALLING WELL BLO
ZERO...WL MAINTAIN GOING WIND CHILL ADVY EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT
MEET THE MINIMUM 10 MPH CRITERIA AT MANY LOCATIONS.
TUE...SFC ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT INTO FAR NW IL BY
00Z WED...RESULTING IN A SLOW BACKING/WEAKENING OF THE LLVL WINDS.
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE ACYC FLOW...THE LES
OVER THE W SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE BANDS SHIFT MAINLY INTO THE
KEWEENAW BY LATER IN THE DAY. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...LLVL CNVGC
INTO THE ERN CWA IS ALSO FCST TO WEAKEN. IN CONCERT WITH TREND
TOWARD MORE DISORGANIZED BAND STRUCTURE WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS AND
A FCST LOWERING OF THE INVRN BASE UNDER THE SUSTAINED QVECTOR
DVGC... LES INTENSITY IN THE ADVY AREA OVER THE E SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE AFTN. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABV ZERO OVER
THE INTERIOR W...BUT DIMINISHING WIND WL MODERATE WIND CHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A BROAD
TROUGH ENVELOPS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTINENT INCLUDING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND LESSER CHCS FOR SNOW FOR
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS INDICATE LAND
BREEZES OFF ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH MESOLOW AND ASSOC
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFFSHORE OF ERN COUNTIES AND OUT OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS OF COURSE WOULD RESULT IN A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR ERN COUNTIES. AT SAME
TIME...MODELS ALSO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM DESCENDING THROUGH
MANITOBA/ONTARIO TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED WHICH IN TURN WILL ENHANCE MID-LAKE CONVERGNCE...LAKE-INDUCED
TROUGH AND ASSOC MESOLOW FEATURES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEP LAYER
MODERATE Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD DUSTING OF LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF CLIPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP WIND CHILLS GENERALLY GREATER THAN
-20F OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE NIGHT.
WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MESOLOWS AND MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE BANDS ONSHORE
INTO UPPER MI BRINGING THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH WIND SHIFT...EXPECT MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE OVER MAINLY OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MOVE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENT TO MESOLOWS AND
MID LAKE CONVERGENCE LES BANDS RESIDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY. NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW ALSO SHOW STRONG PRES RISES IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FCST SNDGS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS 35-40 KTS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEL QPF FIELDS SUGGEST HEAVIEST BANDS WILL
FOCUS INTO MQT COUNTY WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FCST FOR HEAVY LES AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MQT COUNTY WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. FOR NOW ONLY INCLUDED MQT COUNTY IN
WATCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HEADLINES WILL ALSO BE NEEDED
FOR BARAGA AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AS WINDS BACK NW WITH APPROACH OF SFC RDG FM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE LES BANDS WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING LIGHT LES EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FAR ERN
SHORELINE...WINDS BACKING WSW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LES OUT OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING A VERY BRIEF BREAK FROM SNOW THU EVENING
BEFORE YET ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS IN A CHC FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING LATE FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
INCREASED MOISTENING...DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV ALONG WITH CONVERGENT
W-WNW FLOW FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING TO BRING AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LES INTO THE NW CWA. WITH BLYR WINDS FCST
OVER 30 KTS ACROSS KEWEENAW AND LK SUPERIOR...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT BLSN/DRSN AND POOR VSBY AS WELL.
MOST MODELS SHOW POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING NEAR TIP OF JAMES BAY THIS
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT HEART OF COLDEST AIR (8H TEMPS
-35F OR LOWER) WILL STAY NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT SHORTWAVE
LOBES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE COULD BRING WAVE OF 8H TEMPS OF
-28 TO -30F ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS AROUND 10F TO LOWER TEENS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH ABV ZERO
AT SOME WRN INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT NW FLOW LES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
A COLD N WIND SLOWLY BACKING NW WL BRING LK EFFECT -SHSN TO UPR MI
THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A FEED OF LLVL DRY AIR AND LO INVRN BASE
ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY VARY SGNFTLY AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE DURING LK EFFECT SN EVENTS...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. IWD WL SEE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT
TERM WITH FVRBL NNE FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF WRN LK SUP. THE BEST CHC
FOR VFR WX WL BE AT SAW WITH A MORE DOWNSLOPE NW WIND AND AT IWD ON
TUE MRNG ONCE THE FLOW BACKS SUFFICIENTLY TO FLOW OFF ICE BUILDUP AT
THE SW END OF LK SUP.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
WITH NNW WINDS UP TO 20-30 KTS ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO CONTINUE INTO TUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT DIMINISHING WINDS ON
TUE WILL CAUSE THIS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. NEXT
GALE EVENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ANOTHER
GALE IS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 11 AM EST
/10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-
250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1150 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ALF OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR TROF OVER EASTERN NAMERICA AND A RDG
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DISTURBANCE/
SFC LO PRES MOVING INTO WRN QUEBEC IS IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING N-E
THRU UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GENERALLY LGT SN
MAINLY NEAR LK SUP. MUCH COLDER AIR WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -27C
AT YPL IS FOLLOWING THIS FNT...AND SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
FALLING OVER THE NRN TIER. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR...
THE COMBINATION OF DNVA AHEAD OF AN APRCHG SHRTWV RDG/LOWERING INVRN
BASE TOWARD 3K FT PER SHORT TERM FCST SDNGS AND ADVECTION OF DRIER
LLVL AIR OSBVD IN ONTARIO IS TENDING TO HAMPER THE INTENSITY OF LES
FOLLOWING THE FROPA. IN FACT...VSBL STLT IMAGERY IS SHOWING QUITE A
BIT OF CLRG OVER THE N HALF OF LK SUP. THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV NEAR
LK WINNIPEG THAT IS DIVING ESEWD TOWARD THE CWA. STLT IMAGERY DOES
SHOW SOME ENHANCED CLD IN THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...BUT THE LLVL DRYING IN THE NNE FLOW TO THE S OF SFC
ARCTIC HI PRES CENTERED OVER NRN MANITOBA IS LIMITING SN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWV OVER ALBERTA IS MOVING
SEWD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE LES/SN AMOUNTS/GOING
HEADLINES AND IMPACT OF CLIPPER SHRTWVS THAT WL BE DIVING SEWD THRU
THE UPR LKS.
TNGT...SFC COLD FNT NOW DROPPING SWD THRU UPR MI WL CLEAR MENOMINEE
BY 00Z MON. INFLUX OF COLD AIR IN THE LLVL NLY FLOW BEHIND THIS
FROPA THAT IS FCST TO DROP H85 TEMPS TO ARND -23C OR -24C OVER THE
NRN TIER BY 12Z MON WL GENERATE LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS.
ALTHOUGH LLVL DRYING/LO INVRN BASE WL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN IN THE SHORT TERM...ARRIVAL OF DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF UPSTREAM CLIPPER SHRTWVS IS
FCST TO SLOWLY RAISE FCST INVRN BASE AND BRING ABOUT SOME DEEPER
MOISTENING. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCRS IN LES INTENSITY
ESPECIALLY E OF MQT...WHERE LONGER FETCH OVER ICE FREE WATER AND
SHARPER LLVL CNVGC OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES ON WRN FLANK
OF LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF ONTARIO WL TEND TO PLAY A POSITIVE ROLE
DESPITE SOME SLOWLY SHIFTING LLVL WINDS ACCOMPANYING PASSAGE OF UPR
DISTURBANCE. GOING LES ADVY FOR THE ERN CWA SEEMS APPROPIATE. AWAY
FM MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH LK SUP...DYNAMIC SUPPORT FM CLIPPER
SHRTWV WL PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT LGT SHSN WITH LLVL
DRYING OFFSETTING THE ACCOMPANYING UPWARD MOTION. NLY FLOW OFF LK
SUP/ABUNDANT CLD COVER WL TEND TO MODERATE MIN TEMPS DESPITE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR.
MON...CLIPPER NOW OVER ALBERTA/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST/UPR LKS
IN THE MRNG. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN HIER INVRN BASE AND
PERSISTENT LES NEAR LK SUP AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO ARND -26C IN SLOWLY
SHIFTING LLVL NLY FLOW. BUT THE DIMINISHING DGZ DEPTH ACCOMPANYING
INFLUX OF EVEN COLDER AIR AS WELL AS SLOWLY SHIFTING LLVL WINDS WL
TEND TO LIMIT SN TOTALS. BUT WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LES IN
THE FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MQT. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FREQUENT
SHSN EARLY NEAR IWD CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THIS SECOND CLIPPER...
WENT WITH NO MORE THAN LIKELY POPS OVER THE WRN SN BELTS CONSIDERING
WEAKER LLVL CNVGC/MORE ICE COVER. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND
ABUNDANT CLD COVER IN GENERAL N FLOW OFF LK SUP...EXPECT LTL DIURNAL
TEMP RECOVERY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DETAILS ON LES
AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON WED.
STARTING 00Z TUE...THE CWA WILL BE BENEATH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS
WILL START OUT AOB -25C. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NNW AS
THE CWA IS BETWEEN A SFC TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND A 1040MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER ND. A TROUGH WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE SSE INTO ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...PROMOTING CYCLONIC FLOW THERE...WHILE FLOW OVER FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC. LES WILL BE ONGOING
IN ALL NNW WIND SNOWBELT...BUT THE MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE
DOWNWIND OF ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY LES /INCLUDING INVERSION
TOPS AROUND 7KFT/. NOT MUCH CHANGES THROUGH THE REST OF MON
NIGHT...EXCEPT THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE TO FAR SW MN...MAKING
FOR EVEN LESS FAVORABLE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS. THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCAL EFFECTS IS WITH ICE COVERAGE OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THAT MAY CLOSE DOWN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TO LES. THERE WAS
GOOD ICE COVERAGE OVER THE W WHEN LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH STRONG SW WINDS LAST NIGHT TURNING MORE NWLY
TODAY...NOT SURE ABOUT THE COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THAT ICE INTO
THE FUTURE. THE NIGHT SHIFT LAST NIGHT PUT UP AN ADVISORY FOR
ALGER...NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD
THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THEN FOR TUE...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SE AS THE SFC TROUGH
OVER THE ERN LAKE DIMINISHES. FLOW BECOME VERY ANTICYCLONIC OVER ALL
BUT EXTREME ERN LAKE SUPERIOR /WHERE IT WILL BE NEUTRAL/ BY 00Z WED.
850MB TEMPS ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND -20C UNDER THE SFC RIDGE TUE.
SHOULD SEE LES DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL. EVEN WITH CONDITIONS BEING UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LES
OVER CENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW...WHICH WOULD MAINLY BE AREAS N OFF THE
PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NWRN CWA. EXTENDED PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
HEADLINES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LAKE TROUGHING SHOULD STICK AROUND
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...HELPING TO CONTINUE LES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. TUE LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE CWA STARTING TUE
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO N OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN ONTARIO BY 12Z
WED...BRINGING A BROAD...WEAK SFC LOW TO THE AREA. THIS LOW LOOKS TO
BE ENHANCED BY LAKE AGGREGATE AS A MESO LOW MAY FORM OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT TO WHAT MAGNITUDE AND EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN. THE
12Z/19 NAM...00Z/19 GLOBAL GEM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 00Z/19 ECMWF
FAVOR THE MESO LOW TO MOVE OVER E CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...MOVING
INTO UPPER MI SOMEWHERE E OF MARQUETTE WED EVENING. THIS PATH IS
TYPICALLY WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...BUT THE EXACTLY WHERE THAT LOW
MOVES WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE STRONGEST SNOW AND WIND WILL FOCUS.
THIS COULD BE QUITE AN INTERESTING EVENT OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
AS THE MESO LOW WILL VERY QUICKLY SHIFT SE AS IT MOVES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A 1050MB HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING A 1030MB SFC RIDGE INTO
THE CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE GUSTY
WINDS AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISE...BUT
THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE
POSSIBLE MESO LOW...WHERE BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NNE FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE MESO LOW AND FROM JUST AHEAD TO JUST BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...NCENTRAL UPPER MI WOULD BE FAVORED FOR UPSLOPE AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT THAT MAY MAKE FOR VERY TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS SOMEWHERE
IN THE LATE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING TIME FRAME.
AGAIN...THESE ARE PRETTY LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO EXACTLY PREDICT EVENT A DAY OUT...BUT THE CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NCENTRAL UPPER MI IS PRETTY GOOD
GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN. OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA AFFECTED BY
THE MESO LOW...THE REST OF NWRN UPPER MI LOOKS FAVORED FOR A GOOD
BURST OF SNOW AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES.
EXPECT LES WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM NLY TO NWLY WITH
-25C 850MB TEMPS...BUT WITH THE SFC RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ON
THU...THE LES SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN THU MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BY LATER THU...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AHEAD OF
ANOTHER CLIPPER THAT WILL STAY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA. THE MORE
FAVORABLE CURVATURE TO THE FLOW WILL FAVORED THE KEWEENAW FOR LES AS
STRONG WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WSW THROUGH 06Z FRI...VEERING OUT OF
THE WNW BEHIND THE CLIPPER BY 18Z FRI. 850MB TEMPS LATE THU THROUGH
FRI WILL BE IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE...WHICH WILL PUT MORE OF THE
THERMAL PROFILE IN THE DGZ...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TO ONLY BE
4-5KFT.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE
NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES THIS FAR
OUT. ONE TREND THAT CAN BE NOTED IS THAT THE COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS
BELOW -30C/ SHOWN IN PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL RUNS MOVING OVER THE CWA
IS NOW BEING SHOWS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
TO THE NE. THIS COULD CHANGE...BUT AT LEAST IT IS A NOTABLE TREND
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING
LAKE EFFECT -SHSN TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A FEED OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH COLD HI PRES
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.
ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT TYPICALLY BRINGS VARIABLE CONDITIONS...
SOMETIMES HIGHLY VARIABLE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE GENERAL
PREVAILING CONDITION AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS...AND THE BEST CHC
FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KIWD THIS MORNING WHEN A PASSING
DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF A FAVORABLE NNE FLOW AND DEEPER
MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE THE SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
EXPECT N TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT AND MON E OF ARCTIC
HI PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES...THE RESULTING WAVE ACTION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY IF NOT LONGER AS AREA IS ENTRENCHED IN COLD
AIR. NEXT GALE EVENTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAME AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248>251-264>267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ243-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
901 PM MST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM
HARLOWTON TO RYEGATE AND DOWN INTO THE RED LODGE AND BEARTOOTH
FOOTHILLS.
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM JUST EAST OF
ROUNDUP THROUGH HYSHAM AND DOWN TOWARD BROADUS. THE LOCATION OF
THIS BAND IS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING. THEREFORE LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE BAND WILL LIKELY
SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THE RAP HAS BEEN
THE ONLY COMPUTER MODEL TO CATCH ONTO THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAND
AND HAVE BEEN LEANING HEAVILY ON IT FOR THIS UPDATE...ALONG WITH
THE QG FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS OF THE GFS. GIVEN THIS
MODEL COMBINATION...BEST QG FORCING MATCHES UP WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. STILL SOME QUESTION
AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE BAND WILL PUSH...AND WHETHER PARK COUNTY
MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THERE.
FOR THE RED LODGE AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS...THE FORCING MENTIONED
ABOVE IS COMBINED WITH VERY DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH THE RAP
SHOWING NORTHERLY WINDS ALL THE WAY TO 600 MB. WHILE THE DENDRITIC
LAYER IS A LITTLE HIGH...ABOVE 700 MB...IT IS STILL ALMOST 100 MB
DEEP WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE LAYER. THEREFORE...ENHANCEMENT
FROM THE UPSLOPE SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS IN THESE
AREA.
CHURCH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
MODELS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING AIRMASS CHANGE...BUT NOTED THE WRF WAS MOVING
PRECIPITATION SW THROUGH THE AREA FASTER THAN THE GFS. FOR
NOW...LEANED ON THE GFS WHICH MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
STRONG REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE S INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO AREAS E OF
KBIL...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TO AREAS FROM JUDITH GAP TO
HARLOWTON TO KSHR. THE COLDER AIR WILL BRING LOWS OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO KBHK...WITH TEENS AND 20S ELSEWHERE.
SHORTWAVE SEEN OFF THE COAST OF BC AND THE PACIFIC NW IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SLIDE S THROUGH ID ON WED
BRINGING SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION
...THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN
UPPER JET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH E
MT...REINFORCING THE COLDER AIR. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE
TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AND TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED
THE UPPER SUPPORT WAS NOT DIRECTLY IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
SUPPORT WHICH WAS THE FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS
MOVED QPF SW THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND HAD A BULLSEYE
OF ABOUT .14 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE QPF AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH /.10/ OF AN INCH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM -2 DEGREES C
W TO -16 DEGREES C E BY 00Z THU. THUS...AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S W
TO TEENS E...EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. EXPECT AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING E...TO 2 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS TO 3
INCHES IN THE NE BIG HORNS.
THE UPPER FORCING WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING AND
PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED
POPS WED NIGHT. ONE ITEM OF NOTE WAS THAT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTED
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WED
NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY AND NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. EXPECT WED
NIGHT TO BE COLD COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
REGION OF LATE. ADJUSTED LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS BELOW ZERO E
TO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO W.
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION ON THU. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE E THU NIGHT MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AROUND
KBHK AND KMLS...SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S TO THE 40S ON
THU UNDER WARM ADVECTION. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THU NIGHT. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A MAINLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT THERE WILL REMAIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SATURDAY THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE COLDEST AIR
AS THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD AIR CLOSER TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDER
WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR FURTHER WEST INTO OUR
CENTRAL ZONES. MODELS BRING A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS AND PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND
MODEL SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP AND ALSO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME BUT MOSTLY LIKELY THESE WILL
NEED INCREASED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO NORMAL OR
BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARRIVE BY MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY STILL DON`T LOOK TOO COLD GIVEN IT
IS STILL JANUARY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIR JUST EAST
INTO THE DAKOTAS...WILL NEED TO WATCH AND SEE IF THESE COLDER
READINGS TREND WESTWARD. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BACK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
ALONG A LINE FROM BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN TONIGHT...THEN PUSH WEST
TOWARD LIVINGSTON BY MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THE SNOW WILL BRING MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. THE
SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/032 011/039 028/049 031/049 029/043 022/037 024/044
47/S 40/N 01/N 11/N 11/B 22/W 22/W
LVM 025/038 013/038 027/046 027/045 029/040 022/039 024/040
17/O 40/B 01/N 01/N 11/N 12/W 12/W
HDN 024/030 003/035 024/048 028/047 025/040 019/035 020/040
46/S 30/U 01/B 11/B 12/W 22/J 22/W
MLS 011/018 910/029 021/045 026/042 025/035 013/028 012/034
23/S 10/U 22/W 11/B 22/J 22/J 11/B
4BQ 019/026 907/026 019/044 027/043 025/037 014/030 014/036
45/S 10/U 12/W 11/B 12/J 22/J 11/B
BHK 007/013 916/025 019/040 024/038 024/031 007/020 004/030
22/S 10/U 22/W 21/B 22/J 21/B 11/B
SHR 023/033 002/032 018/045 027/045 025/040 019/036 018/039
36/S 30/U 01/B 10/B 11/B 23/J 23/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 28-34-41-42-56-63-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1042 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2014
Update to Aviation
.UPDATE...
Tonight...A weak disturbance is moving through the northwest flow
aloft and an associated cold front moved through the northern zones
and pushed into the central. This front is dry and the main effect
will be cooler temperatures tonight and tomorrow. Updated to lower
low temps for tonight across the northern and southern zones. Also
freshened pops and wx. Zelzer
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 542Z.
VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the TAF period. Mid
level clouds will taper off by 10Z. Mercer
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2014/
Tonight through Tuesday...Overall pattern remains unchanged with a
strong upper ridge over the west coast and dry northwest flow
aloft. Models move a weak short wave embedded within the northwest
flow aloft through the area late this evening. Surface winds will
shift to the north for a few hours. The RUC and the European
models develop light qpf near the Little Belts as a result of this
weak upslope flow. HRRR analysis also develops qpf in this area
for a few hours late this evening. Have gone with low pops to
support this possibility. The surface gradient is not as tight on
Monday allowing for lighter winds. Monday and Tuesday will
continue dry with a northerly flow aloft. Temperatures will remain
above seasonal averages.
Tuesday night through Sunday...The main change in the extended
period was to increase the chances for rain/snow Wednesday into
Wednesday night...as both the EC/GFS continue to show an upper
level disturbance moving southward through the region. There looks
to be a bit more moisture with this disturbance...thus pops have
been increased...especially in the mountains around Kings Hill.
Snow accumulations still look to be on the low side...with most
lower elevation locations only seeing around 1 inch of
snowfall...and about 2 to 3 inches in the mountains. After this
disturbance moves through little to no precipitation is expected
from Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures will cool a bit
Wednesday as the disturbance moves through the region...with high
temperatures likely in the morning and then falling in the
afternoon. It will be cold Wednesday night as skies clear out a
bit...and with the possible fresh snow cover...temperatures will
fall rather quickly early Thursday morning. Otherwise...expect
afternoon temperatures to generally be about 5 to 10 degrees above
normal starting as early as Thursday afternoon and then continuing
into next weekend. Brusda
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 24 46 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 19 44 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 23 43 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 20 39 19 42 / 0 0 0 0
WEY 7 32 8 33 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 22 41 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 20 35 20 40 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 23 39 25 44 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST Monday Liberty.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
139 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
BROAD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CONUS TONIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW NOTED OVER SRN PORTIONS OF HUDSON
BAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING UP THE WEST COAST INTO THE YUKON. A
DECENT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 50 TO 80 METER
HT FALLS NOTED OVER MT...THE DAKOTAS AND MN. AT THE SURFACE...AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN...INTO FAR
NORTHEASTERN SD AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS
FRONT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NERN ND AND FAR NRN MN...WHILE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN ND AND NEBRASKA. SOME 20S WERE NOTED OVER THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHERE WINDS WERE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING
DUST FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST ARE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR WAS
PICKING UP A VERY WEAK BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WHICH WAS ROUGHLY
FROM MERRIMAN TO BREWSTER TO BARTLETT. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AS THIS BAND HAS MOVED THROUGH. THE
REFLECTIVITIES ARE VERY LIGHT...AND WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 50 MPH
ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS...BELIEVE THE SNOW IS NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURABLE AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. SO
ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
SUBSEQUENT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE COLD
AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...REPORTS OF SOME PATCHY BLOWING
DUST HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SO ADDED THAT INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO
FALL OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS REACHED MAXIMUM MIXING HEIGHT AND WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT DON/T BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH FURTHER
WARMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF WINDS...HAVE RECEIVED A FEW ISOLATED REPORTS OF GUSTS
TO 58 MPH OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM MODELS WERE A BIT STRONG WITH PRESSURE RISES OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WHEN COMPARED TO MSAS DATA. THESE EXTREME PRESSURE RISES WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE RISES WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THINK IF ANY FURTHER
GUSTS TO 58 MPH OCCUR IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND MOST PLACES
WILL BE AT HIGH END ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL FORE-GO
UPGRADING TO HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN NEBRASKA
AROUND 15Z...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE KIND OF TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE ARCTIC FROPA.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS...HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY EARLY IN
THE NORTH AROUND NOONTIME WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS...WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH...HIGHS WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE AND
OCCUR IN THE MID AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TODAY CONTINUES TO RUN TOO
COOL...IN PARTICULAR THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS A HIGH OF
37 FOR NORTH PLATTE. EVEN THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE OF 44 FALLS
SHORT GIVEN THE FCST H85 TEMPS OF 1 TO 2C TDY AND DECENT MIXING
POTENTIAL VIA INCREASING NRLY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. FOR
VALENTINE...GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE CURRENT TEMP OF 33. BEFORE THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING...WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S ALONG THE SD/NEBR BORDER. LATER
THIS MORNING...AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE NERN
FORECAST AREA...THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. TIME SECTIONS ACROSS THE FAR NERN
CWA...INDICATE A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER FROM H85-H70 ROUGHLY ACROSS
HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES...WHICH IS COLOCATED WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN
THE DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS LIFT IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND IS CENTERED
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED LEAVE IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NERN FORECAST AREA...BUFFERED BY A
BAND OF FLURRIES FROM NORTH OF AINSWORTH TO SOUTH OF EWING. THE
FINAL FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE THE WIND THREAT TODAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND A NICE MID LEVEL PV MAX WILL
PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. H85 WINDS WILL PUSH 40 TO 50 KTS BY MID MORNING IN
THE EAST...THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WEST. TYPICALLY IN
THIS SETUP...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS END QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNDOWN...HOWEVER...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE
EAST THROUGH MID EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...FEEL INCLINED TO
EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 3Z ROUGHLY EAST OF A VALENTINE TO
ARNOLD LINE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NERN NEBRASKA
TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDING BY LATE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD TONIGHT...RANGING FROM AROUND
ZERO IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE IN
THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THIS IS THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST REGION. MEANWHILE A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES. OUR
AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL
BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...WITH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SET TO
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL...A WESTERLY
CHINOOK WIND WILL BRING A VERY MILD DAY TO THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
LOCATIONS WEST OF HWY 83 SEEING HIGHS OF 50 DEGREES OR BETTER.
AS MENTIONED...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
1050 MB WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 18Z THURSDAY.
WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF HIGHS THURSDAY...AS THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS QUITE COLD.
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WARMING
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BY SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS
WESTERN NEB. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. TOP
WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...THEN AFTER 22Z SHOULD START
TO DECREASE. STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF A KVTN TO KLBF
LINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AND
SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH. BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY...MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. A
BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY HITTING
AREAS ALONG A LINE FROM KVTN TO KODX. BY 12Z TUESDAY ONLY CLOUDS
ABOVE 8K FEET ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004-
022>024-035-036-056>059-069>071-094.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-025>029-
037-038.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
104 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
DECREASED DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWING CLOSER
TO THE LATEST RAP NUMERICAL MODEL. EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH
ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXING IN
THE AFTERNOON...NEAR H75 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER 45 TO
55KTS AND THREE HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES AVERAGE 3 TO 9 MB MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA UNTIL 6 PM. HAVE
CONCERNS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER INTO THE EVENING BEYOND
THE 6 PM TIME FRAME DUE TO THE TIGHT GRADIENT/STRONG PRESSURE RISES
AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM AS WIND SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE
AS TEMPERATURES COOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER 20 MPH FOR THE MOST
PART.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL DURING THE NIGHT. STILL EXPECT
THAT THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE WINDS FOR TOMORROW. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS THAT
ARE IN THE GRIDS ARE JUST AT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL WAIT AT
THIS TIME FOR WIND ADVISORY THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHEAST AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY IS A
BITTERLY COLD DAY EVERYWHERE...WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
WARM TO BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TUESDAY...A 1040MB HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO IOWA ON TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A BRUSH OF COLD AIR WITH
THE WORST OF THE COLD AIR SLIDING EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL PICK UP A SOUTHERLY OR EVEN WESTERLY SFC WIND COMPONENT
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES TO OUR EAST...WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START TO MODERATE FROM WEST TO EAST AND
KEEP THE COLD AIR FROM WORKING VERY FAR TO THE WEST.
THEREFORE...COULD SEE A NICE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 EAST TO THE MID 40S
WEST.
WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL BE A VERY DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA AND TIMING OF THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. WILL KEEP NORTHEAST
ZONES AROUND 30 FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE GOING WITH THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR KANSAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY REACH
LATER IN THE DAY. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW WITH THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO MENTION IT IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
THURSDAY...SHOULD CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE
COLD AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE TEENS NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. A 1045 SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE RIGHT OVER US ON
SUNDAY...THIS IS SOME PRETTY COLD AIR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY AND WARM WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
WIND WILL BE THE BIG CONCERN WITH INCREASED MIXING TO 750 MB.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WINDS THAT HAVE PICKED UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JJW
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
936 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW ZERO. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 936 PM EST TUESDAY...MAIN STORY AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING
REMAINS THE VERY COLD ACTUAL AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTER OF SFC ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE NOW
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. VERY
STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MASSENA CURRENTLY IS TAKING THE
CAKE FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR WITH A 20 BELOW ZERO
READING AS OF 9 PM...BUT TEMPS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE COMMON
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ACROSS VERMONT...CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR ZER0 AT SPRINGFIELD TO 10 TO 13 BELOW
IN NORTHERN VERMONT. WELL TO THE SOUTH IS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL
CYCLONE ENHANCING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEEPING THE STRONGEST
WINDS MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES DO
REMAIN...THOUGH IN THE STRICTEST SENSE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER
ACROSS VERMONT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK BUT BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES THERE WILL
COMPENSATE.
ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL AREAWIDE WITH
THE SHARPEST FALLS MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR
NORTHERN VERMONT. I DON`T THINK OUR CLIMATE SITES ARE IN ANY
JEOPARDY OF BREAKING DAILY LOW RECORDS /SEE CLIMATE
SECTION/...THOUGH MASSENA MAY COME CLOSE GIVEN ITS CURRENT
READING. NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE IS SEVERAL DEGREES OFF CURRENT
TEMPERATURES. BIAS CORRECTED RAP GUIDANCE AND ADJUSTED ECMWF MOS
GENERALLY PERFORMING BETTER THAN OTHERS...AND SO I`VE CONTINUED TO
LOWER HOURLY TEMPS DOWN BRINGING LOWS BETWEEN 3 BELOW TO -26 BELOW
(COLDEST IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY).
REGARDING POPS/WX...I DID REDUCE POPS FURTHER ACROSS EASTERN
VERMONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT BASED ON REFLECTIVITY TRENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL FEEL THAT A FEW FLAKES OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT...BUT
NOT LIKELY TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OR SO AS THE
GREATEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND DRY PBL AIR ALSO BEING
A NEGATIVE. I DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH 09Z BASED
ON STRONG LAKE-TO-AIR LAPSE RATES. ONLY A FEW HI-RES MODELS POINT
TO SUCH DEVELOPMENT /PARTICULARLY THE NMM/ BUT THINK THE THREAT
BECOMES MORE LIMITED AS WE HEAD INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EST TUESDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE BIG
STORY AS ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
COLD AIR WILL BE RE-ENFORCED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO ADVECT MORE
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH THE COLD WILL COME RATHER
QUIET WEATHER HOWEVER. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO GET ABOVE
ZERO NORTH AND WILL RANGE FROM 5-10 ABOVE SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH WINDS FIGURE TO BE LIGHTER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDS ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW AS
SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SW
FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PSBL IN THE SW FLOW ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE PRECIP RELATED TO APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADS TO INCREASING WINDS
AND WAA INTO FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
OVER THE REGION AND MODERATING TEMPS. FRIDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S ON SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRANSLATE ITS ENERGY INTO
ERN ONTARIO AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRAVELS EWD INTO SWRN QUEBEC.
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NGT...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL SHOWING LGT
QPF AMNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
SUNDAY MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...ESP OVER THE TRRN
AS UPPER LVL VORTICITY CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. COLD SFC
TEMPS RETURN WITH MAX TEMPS IN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NGT INTO MONDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LVL
VORTICITY FOLLOWS MONDAY NGT WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
PSBL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THRU PERIOD. KMPV/KRUT WILL BE ON NRN EDGE OF SFC LOW MVG ARD
40N/70W BENCHMARK...OTHER THAN A STRAY FLAKE/TWO...NOT EXPECTING
ANY OBSTRUCTION TO VSBY.
THE CPV WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WARM LAKE AND COLD
AIR TEMPERATURES DEVELOP. KBTV MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS LIKE LAST NIGHT...MAINLY BTWN 04Z AND 08Z. BUT WITH
MORE N-NNW WIND EXPECTED...AS OPPOSED TO LAST NGTS NNE
WIND...MVFR CLDS AND -SHSN MAY AFFECT AREAS FURTHER SOUTH.
SFC LOW WILL PULL INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MRNG...TAKING ANY MOISTURE WITH
IT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AROUND SUNRISE PERSIST THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SFC LOW TO THE SE AND SFC
HIGH TO OUR NW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 6-12
KTS FOR THE CPV EAST...WITH LIGHTER CONDITIONS TO THE WEST AROUND
5KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
00Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF SNOW
SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE NW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS ESP ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY S-SW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...WHICH WL SHIFT TO THE W-NW BY SATURDAY NGT BEHIND SFC
COLD FRNT.
12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL AS WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OUT OF THE
W AT 5-15KTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION...HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
FOLLOWING:
1/22 1/23 1/24
BTV -22F/1970 -19F/1970 -22F/1948
MSS -29F/2005 -26F/2000 -30F/1976
MPV -27F/1984 -18F/2000 -22F/2011
1V4 -28F/1984 -25F/2000 -34F/1907
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-
016>019.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-
005-007>012.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
029>031-034-087.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/SLW
CLIMATE...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
941 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN OF
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW. MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 931 AM EST MONDAY...SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. SNOW
CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS ARCTIC
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT. SNOW BEGINNING
TO WIND DOWN IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT THIS DRYING TREND TO SPREAD SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR REST
OF THE MORNING FOR MOST AREAS...AND ADJUSTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
SLIGHTLY. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING MOST AREAS. LOOK FOR
MIDDAY READINGS TO RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS AT MASSENA NY TO
LOWER 30S AT SPRINGFIELD VT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT THIS EARLY HOUR. TRENDS CONTINUE FOR
A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC PVA ANALYSIS
TRAVERSE THE AREA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LIKELY POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID-MORNING...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS...NOT
A LOT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND EXPECT OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2"...BUT LOCALIZED
SQUALLS REMAIN POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CRANK OUT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2".
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY OWING TO DIFFICULTY TIMING THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT AREAS NORTH OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY REALIZE MAX TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS TO
MID 20S...SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR...TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OR CLIMB A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BEFORE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE`LL SEE AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE`S LOTS OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE
SOME BREAKS AND WILL HEDGE TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY. THE RETURN OF
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES BEGINS TONIGHT THOUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW TONIGHT...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT (4-8 MPH)...THEY`LL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD
WILL BE THE RULE AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OVER THE REGION AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO GET ABOVE
ZERO...BUT LIKELY WILL BY JUST A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND 5-10 ABOVE SOUTH. WE`LL LIKELY HAVE A REPEAT OF
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TEMPS DROP
A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AND WINDS REMAIN ABOUT
5-10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. I ENVISION ANOTHER ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EST MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT TO BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH
OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY 10 TO
15 ABOVE ZERO ON FRIDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
REMAINING ABOVE ZERO. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINTING AT SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HOWEVER ARE
SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS
ARCTIC FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE
THE GFS MODEL STILL HAS THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN CANADA
APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
MODEL SUGGESTS A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
MODEL KEEPS IN A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WILL STAY WITH
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A LOW TRACKING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ANYWAY...BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH AREAS OF IFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS CONTINUING
AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>004-006>008-010-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
723 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN OF
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW. MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT THIS EARLY
HOUR. TRENDS CONTINUE FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON LATEST WV
IMAGERY AND RUC PVA ANALYSIS TRAVERSE THE AREA...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH
MID-MORNING...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS...NOT A LOT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND EXPECT OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE GENERALLY A
DUSTING TO 2"...BUT LOCALIZED SQUALLS REMAIN POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
CRANK OUT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2". TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY
OWING TO DIFFICULTY TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT AREAS
NORTH OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REALIZE MAX TEMPS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...SLOWLY FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR...TEMPS
REMAIN STEADY OR CLIMB A BIT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BEFORE
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE`LL SEE AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE`S LOTS OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE
SOME BREAKS AND WILL HEDGE TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY. THE RETURN OF
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES BEGINS TONIGHT THOUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW TONIGHT...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT (4-8 MPH)...THEY`LL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD
WILL BE THE RULE AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OVER THE REGION AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO GET ABOVE
ZERO...BUT LIKELY WILL BY JUST A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND 5-10 ABOVE SOUTH. WE`LL LIKELY HAVE A REPEAT OF
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TEMPS DROP
A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AND WINDS REMAIN ABOUT
5-10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. I ENVISION ANOTHER ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EST MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT TO BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH
OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY 10 TO
15 ABOVE ZERO ON FRIDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
REMAINING ABOVE ZERO. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINTING AT SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HOWEVER ARE
SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS
ARCTIC FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE
THE GFS MODEL STILL HAS THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN CANADA
APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
MODEL SUGGESTS A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
MODEL KEEPS IN A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WILL STAY WITH
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A LOW TRACKING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ANYWAY...BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH AREAS OF IFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS CONTINUING
AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>004-006>008-010-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN OF
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW. MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT THIS EARLY
HOUR. TRENDS CONTINUE FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON LATEST WV
IMAGERY AND RUC PVA ANALYSIS TRAVERSE THE AREA...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH
MID-MORNING...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS...NOT A LOT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND EXPECT OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE GENERALLY A
DUSTING TO 2"...BUT LOCALIZED SQUALLS REMAIN POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
CRANK OUT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2". TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY
OWING TO DIFFICULTY TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT AREAS
NORTH OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REALIZE MAX TEMPS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...SLOWLY FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR...TEMPS
REMAIN STEADY OR CLIMB A BIT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BEFORE
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE`LL SEE AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE`S LOTS OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE
SOME BREAKS AND WILL HEDGE TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY. THE RETURN OF
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES BEGINS TONIGHT THOUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW TONIGHT...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT (4-8 MPH)...THEY`LL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD
WILL BE THE RULE AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OVER THE REGION AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO GET ABOVE
ZERO...BUT LIKELY WILL BY JUST A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND 5-10 ABOVE SOUTH. WE`LL LIKELY HAVE A REPEAT OF
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TEMPS DROP
A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AND WINDS REMAIN ABOUT
5-10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. I ENVISION ANOTHER ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EST MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT TO BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH
OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY 10 TO
15 ABOVE ZERO ON FRIDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
REMAINING ABOVE ZERO. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINTING AT SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HOWEVER ARE
SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS
ARCTIC FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE
THE GFS MODEL STILL HAS THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN CANADA
APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
MODEL SUGGESTS A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
MODEL KEEPS IN A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WILL STAY WITH
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A LOW TRACKING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ANYWAY...BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH SOME BRIEF AREAS OF IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS CONTINUING
AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>004-006>008-010-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
418 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN OF
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW. MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT THIS EARLY
HOUR. TRENDS CONTINUE FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON LATEST WV
IMAGERY AND RUC PVA ANALYSIS TRAVERSE THE AREA...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH
MID-MORNING...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS...NOT A LOT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND EXPECT OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE GENERALLY A
DUSTING TO 2"...BUT LOCALIZED SQUALLS REMAIN POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
CRANK OUT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2". TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY
OWING TO DIFFICULTY TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT AREAS
NORTH OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REALIZE MAX TEMPS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...SLOWLY FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR...TEMPS
REMAIN STEADY OR CLIMB A BIT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BEFORE
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE`LL SEE AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND THERE`S LOTS OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE
SOME BREAKS AND WILL HEDGE TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY. THE RETURN OF
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES BEGINS TONIGHT THOUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW TONIGHT...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT (4-8 MPH)...THEY`LL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD
WILL BE THE RULE AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OVER THE REGION AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO GET ABOVE
ZERO...BUT LIKELY WILL BY JUST A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND 5-10 ABOVE SOUTH. WE`LL LIKELY HAVE A REPEAT OF
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TEMPS DROP
A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AND WINDS REMAIN ABOUT
5-10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. I ENVISION ANOTHER ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY FOR AN OVERALL QUIET PERIOD THRU THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST KEEPS SOME CLOUDS AROUND AS
RIDGING BUILDS JUST TO THE WEST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ONLY SLGT CHC FOR
SNOW SHOWERS TO SRN VT. COLD AIR CONTINUES WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -24C AND 925MB TEMPS OF -20C TO -26C. AT THE SFC THIS WILL
MEAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH
MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT BELOW ZERO.
ON FRIDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...PUTTING THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN MODERATING SW FLOW...AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTICEABLE AT THE SFC WITH
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND FRIDAY NGT MIN TEMPS ABOVE
ZERO.
GFS STARTS TO BRING SNOW FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM INTO THE SLV
LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RIDGE SLOW
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SE. OVERALL INCREASING THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NGT INTO SATURDAY...WITH BULK OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WARM TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING SUNDAY MAX TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS TO L20S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH SOME BRIEF AREAS OF IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS CONTINUING
AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>004-006>008-010-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
740 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUE...WE ARE MONITORING TRENDS TO THE WEST FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN
CWA COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LOW PRES IS CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER
SE NC THIS EVENING. INC 850-700MB FGEN OBSERVED OVER THE PIEDMONT
AND COASTAL PLAIN OF NC PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE VERIFYING WITH INTENSIFYING MESOSCALE BANDING FROM ROUGHLY
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO FAYETTEVILLE PER RADAR RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD
TOPS PER IR IMAGERY. NEAR TERM X-SECTION RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS BANDS PIVOTING/PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING ON
COOL SIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM. SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE
EFFICIENT GIVEN STRONG LIFT/OMEGA IN DENDRITE GROWTH REGION AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR
SNOW RATES AS THE BAND MIGRATES EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS
1000MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NE NC...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL AND NE NC. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST AND STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...AS A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS. THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE...VERY STRONG LIFT AND ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN WINTRY
WX DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING RAPIDLY.
PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 7-10PM. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK LIKE ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 264 AND NORTHERN
OBX...WHERE COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
INCH. CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COAST COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING. WARM
TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS
SLIGHTLY. WINTER WX ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT
CARTERET/OBX HYDE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND INTO EARLY AM FOR THE OUTER BANKS. GUSTY NW
WINDS STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW/MID 20S. SOME
SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS/BRIDGES ETC OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED WITH FREEZING TEMPS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH
THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AM...WILL LIKELY COVER
WITH AN SPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
UP THE MID-ATLANTIC/NE COAST WED. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WED MORNING. WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CWA INTO WED MORNING WITH SLICK SPOTS
EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS. GIVEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS -14 TO -10C...VERY COLD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NC. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT REACH FREEZING...AND HIGHS GENERALLY 25-31
DEGREES. SOME RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY REINFORCEMENT OF
THE DEEP EASTERN US TROF LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE W/NW
DOMINATED FLOW ALOFT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CROSS WED NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HAVE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS INLAND
TO LOWER 20S BEACHES. LOW LVL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU
AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC FRONT BUT STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS UPR 30S
N TO LOWER 40S S. A DRY COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL SPREAD IN THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS
INLAND WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRI MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
MANY AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 30F ON FRIDAY.
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON
AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 45-50F DURING THE WEEKEND. SAT LOOKS
RATHER WINDY AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS
ESPCLY NEAR THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S/LOW
50S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONT. HIGHS NEXT
TUESDAY FALL BACK AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AS LIGHT PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DEVELOP. THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED...MAINLY
BTWN 00-03Z FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPO IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW
LIKELY THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE INDLUDING
IN TAFS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END BY 06-08Z. VFR WILL RETURN EARLY
WED THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY ARCTIC AIR
DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW N WINDS INC TO 35 KNOTS NORTHERN
WATERS BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND
IT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. GALE WARNINGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS AND SOUNDS. NW WINDS WILL PEAK TONIGHT AT 25-35KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 KT. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF
NWPS/WAVEWATCH...AND HAVE SEAS PEAKING AT 8-12FT OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
WED...WILL STILL FREQ GUSTS TO 35KT EARLY WED AM. SCA WILL BE
NEEDED BEHIND THE GALES...ESP NORTH OF OCRACOKE WHERE ELEVATED
SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
OCCASIONAL REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGES LEAD TO INCREASING
WINDS/SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE
IMPROVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THU.
HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS WILL AGAIN BE RAMPING UP AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THRU THE AREA WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATER FRI AND FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW. W/SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND ESPCLY SAT AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AGAIN SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WATER
LEVELS 1.5-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUND-SIDE PORTION
OF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND WED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 22ND:
CAPE HATTERAS 26
MANTEO 25
OCRACOKE 30
NEW BERN 30
WILLIAMSTON 31
KINSTON 19
GREENVILLE 27
BAYBORO 29
MOREHEAD CITY 31
WASHINGTON 32
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ029-
044>047-079>081-090>094-098-103.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-
104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-135-156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD/TL
MARINE...BTC/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR REGINA SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD TO
JUST EAST OF MINOT AND JAMESTOWN. MINOT WAS AT 35 DEGREES BUT RUGBY
WAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AT 14 AND REPORTING LIGHT SNOW.
JAMESTOWN WAS AT 29 WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT
VALLEY CITY WAS AT 19 WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. THE FRONT WAS NEAR
HARVEY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND CALM WINDS AT 27 DEGREES...AND CARRINGTON
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW WITH 25 DEGREES. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AND CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE COMBINED WITH
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW. THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS
THE FRONT IS STEEP...AND THERE MAY BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THE
LIGHT SNOW FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED MINOT COULD SEE RAIN OR SNOW
(AND THE MINOT AIR BASE REPORTED LIGHT RAIN FOR A SHORT TIME LATE
SUNDAY EVENING). BISMARCK COULD ALSO SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN...BUT THE JAMESTOWN SOUNDING INDICATED ALL SNOW THERE.
CURRENT FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TONIGHT TO 25 TO 30 MPH...AND LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THE NORTH WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED FROM NEAR REGINA SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINOT AND JAMESTOWN. UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON WV
IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY INDICATED OVER RENVILLE
AND WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY WITH LIGHTER REFLECTIVITIES NORTHWARD
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS TRACK THIS AREA OF SNOW SOUTHEAST WITH MORE LIGHT
SNOW FILLING IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER 06 UTC...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE WERE UPDATES
TO HOURLY POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR...AND FUTURE POPS BASED ON 02Z RAP AND 00Z NAM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
THE WEST. MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO CUT BACK ON POPS OVER
THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE
STRATUS AND THAT SHOULD SPREAD WEST LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS
EVENING. 22Z HRRR AND 23Z RAP MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING
INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 06Z. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF TODAY`S FORECAST IS WIND TOMORROW. 12 UTC
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE HOUR
PERIOD OF FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS A LITTLE OVER 40
KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER TO SQUASH MIXING THAN THE
NAM...SUGGESTING THAT GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY NOT EVEN
MATERIALIZE. THE FORECAST REMAINS BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
RIGHT NOW...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SPEED UP ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SLIDES ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND
THERE IS GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT UP TO 2 INCHES WILL FALL ALONG
THE U.S. HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS UNDER A QUASI-ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DURING ALL OF THE COMING WORK WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WILL SEE SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/WV`S TRAVERSING NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG 1040MB SURFACE HIGH
PROPAGATING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL NEAR 20 BELOW
OVER MY EAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO 15 BELOW WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARMER WEST...ZERO TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE...THANKS TO RETURN FLOW/WEAK WAA.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BROADER S/WV TROUGH WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW...THE FIRST ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE (GRAZING MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND THE SECOND
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL ND. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH EACH FEATURE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG CAA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR
10KTS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND CHILL HEADLINES
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POSSIBLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT...AND
ARE ALSO FLUCTUATING MODEL RUN TO RUN. OVERALL...THE ACTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE THERMAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST AND WARMER
SOUTHWEST. THE VERY COLD AIR PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR NEXT WEEKEND
IS NOW CONSISTENTLY (OVER THE LAST 3-4 GFS/ECMWF RUNS) BEING
DEPICTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH
WE MAY STILL EXPERIENCE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OVER ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. SNOW WILL LAG THE CLOUDS BY
A FEW HOURS AT KJMS/KMOT/KBIS. SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT AND TIMING OF SNOWFALL.
THEREAFTER...LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BECOME NORTHERLY...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
650 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST THIS
EVENING...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDY AND FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. COLDER THAN NORMAL WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
STARTED TO TRIM BACK THE ADVISORY AND WARNING FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS/FORECAST.
FROM EARLIER...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FIELDS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT/S STEADY AS SHE GOES
WITH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MEAN ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL QPF. OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWFALL AND
SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT INDICATE ABOUT A 15:1 RATIO SO FAR.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY STEADILY DECREASE OVER CENTRAL AND SWRN
PENN...WITH THE STEADIEST /AND MDT TO OCNLY HEAVY/ SNOW BECOMING
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...AT THE
NW EDGE OF A FAIRLY PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH 1-2SM VSBYS THROUGH
00-02Z ACROSS ERN YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTY...BEFORE
ENDING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE.
AS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING WIND...AND LOWERING WIND CHILLS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COMPLICATING
MATTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS /RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR. A FEW SPOTS IN OUR
FAR SE CWA COULD SEE 9 OR 10 INCHES.
PLEASE REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. SEVERAL
REPORTS OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE COME IN FROM YORK AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS
SO FAR.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOUR WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN TIER...TEENS THROUGHOUT MOST OF CENTRAL
PENN...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SE METRO AREAS.
THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE FROM NW TO SE EARLY
TONIGHT...AS DEEP DRY/FRIGID AIR PUSHES INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHALLOW STRATO CU AND -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.
BUFKIT NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO AROUND 25KTS BY THIS EVENING
EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK ABOUT 20-30 DEG OVERNIGHT TO A MORE NORTH
TO NNW DIRECTION /AND INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5-10
KTS/. GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NW. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND BITTER COLD TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO 15F IN THE SE TO
AROUND -20F ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND -5F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WESTERN MTNS...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. BUNDLE UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE A BITTER COLD NW FLOW...A FROZEN LK ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW
INVERSION HGT AND BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ABSENCE OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD CREATE BKN STRATOCU AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MCLEAR SKIES APPEAR LIKELY EAST/DOWNWIND
OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850TEMPS OF ARND -20C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM ARND 5 ABV ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO JUST THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX
PERSISTING THRU THE MED RANGE FCST...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF
WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBERTA CLIPPERS
ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY...AND SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THE NEXT
CLIPPER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...BASED ON TIMING OF ALL
MED RANGE MDLS. INCREASING MDL SPREAD MAKES TIMING OF THIRD
SHORTWAVE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...MON/TUE. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF COLD WX MAY COME TO AN END BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO WORK
IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA. HOWEVER COLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SNOW ACROSS THE SE...AT MDT AND LNS.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS
INTO WED AFT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE BFD AND PERHAPS JST...WHERE
THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CLDS AND SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AT THESE
SITES OVERNIGHT INTO WED.
IT WILL BE WINDY AS WELL INTO WED...AS COASTAL LOW DEEPENS.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SE WED NIGHT INTO THU...WILL
LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO BFD AND JST ON THU.
UNLIKE THIS EVENT...WINDS ALOFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THUS EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME SNOW SQUALLS INTO BFD AND JST.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFT...AS LARGE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CANADA SHIFTS THE WIND TO THE WEST...AND MILDER AIR
MOVES IN.
MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS MORE
COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF -SHSN.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ056-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ036-
057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1140 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
ON THE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS EVIDENT ON THE OVERNIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS BACKDOOR ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ELONGATED
UPPER WAVE WITH ONE CENTER IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A SECOND IN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY A THIRD IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
EXTREMELY COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM DEALING WITH CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE...POP DISTRIBUTION...AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE. TIMING OF BOUNDARY HAS COME INTO A CLEARER FOCUS
ON 00Z/06Z SOLUTION SETS...BACKING TO HURON/SIOUX FALLS/SPENCER LINE
BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 18Z...THEN
CONTINUING A QUICKENING PACE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATION IS IMPORTANT AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POST FRONTAL...AND TO CONSIDER LOCATIONS WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
TO WARM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
WIND IS THE FIRST FEATURE OF THE SYSTEM TODAY. WILL BE FAIRLY WELL
MIXED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL SEE 925 HPA WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATER MORNING AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC MISSOURI VALLEY TRACK TO STRONGEST
OFF SURFACE WIND CORE FROM 925 TO 850 HPA. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING
MASSIVE PRESSURE RISES OF 8-12 HPA/3H ASSOCIATED WITH THE FINAL WAVE
WHICH TIMES OUT TO DIG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD PROVIDE A STRONG PULSE TO WINDS WHICH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...THEN INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY END UP HAVING TO ADD COUPLE MORE TIERS
OF COUNTIES EASTWARD INTO THE WIND ADVISORY IF TRENDS IN 06Z NAM
WIND/PRESSURE TENDENCY CONTINUE TO BECOME EVIDENT. NO REASON TO
DOUBT WITH 9-10 HPA/3H RISES ON CURRENT ANALYSIS.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST ADVERTISED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DID SLOW UP THE ONSET SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WILL GET A STRONG COOLING AND
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. LIFT PROVIDED PRIMARILY WITH THE
ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR...A SHALLOW FORCING. COULD BE A LITTLE
BROADENING OF THE PRECIP AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH PASSAGE OF THIRD UPPER WAVE
ENERGY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FLAVOR OF THE SNOW DISTRIBUTION
IS TIED TO THE 925-850 HPA FRONTOGENESIS. WILL LIKELY END UP WITH A
BAND OF A INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL SD INTO
NW IA...TAPERING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW
AS STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE MELTED TO
SNOW FREE PRIOR TO SNOWFALL TODAY...AND GREATER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE WITH A PERSISTENT MODEST WEST NORTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS. WILL HAVE THESE
CLOUDS THIN SOMEWHAT LATE IN CURRENT NIGHT...AND IF WINDS DROP A BIT
WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN. HIGHS UP NORTH ARE CERTAINLY GOING TO BE
EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN SEE A DRASTIC PLUNGE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY. COMPLEX FORECAST AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WARM
IT MAY GET AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR PUSH THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY
TODAY...WITH WARMEST SOLUTION IN RAP SUGGESTING SOME LOWER TO MID
40S ARE AN EASY REACH. MADE SOME DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE TEMP
FORECAST FOR TODAY...WARMING UP SOME LOCATIONS 7-10 DEGREES FROM
EARLIER FORECAST...AND EVEN UP A HALF DOZEN IN THE NORTH IN PLACES
WITH HOPES THAT DO NOT GET TOO MUCH OF A LATE NIGHT DIP.
FINALLY...WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT FROM JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR IN SD TO JUST
EAST OF IT AROUND KSUX. WHILE REALIZE THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL KICK
INTO CRITERIA A BIT SOONER AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS LATER...BUT
STARTED ALL LOCATIONS UP AT THE SAME TIME FOR SIMPLICITY. DID
THROUGH DROP OFF THE WESTERN HALF LATE AT NIGHT GIVEN THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE RIDGE AND LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT WINDS...COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER EAST IN SW MN AND NW IA. EVEN WITHOUT WINDS...WILL SEE SOME
LOWS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT ALSO SHOULD START TO GET
SOME MODIFICATION TO READINGS LATER IN THE WEST WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND THICKER HIGH CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
A VERY COLD START TO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. SOME WARMING WILL TRY TO DEVELOP BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AS THE STUBBORN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT THE PUSH OF WARMER
AIR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM ABOUT THE MID 30S NEAR GREGORY SD
TO NEAR 10 ABOVE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
TOO FAR OVERNIGHT BUT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RISE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THOSE CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR ZERO IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO
NEAR 20 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR BUT ONLY IN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE
COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH. IN FACT...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY DARN COLD AS A 1050 MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL WELL INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. AND WITH WEAK MIXING ON
THURSDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SPOTS WITH
15 TO 20 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS...FRI/SUN...A FAIRLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT REESTABLISHES WHICH KEEPS THE AREA WITHIN A VARIABLE
THERMAL REGIME. WILL NOT LEAN HARD IN ANY ONE DIRECTION DURING THIS
TIME AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT IS LARGE ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA THAT
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY WAVE WILL MAKE POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCES. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY BUT THIS LIKE THE
TEMPERATURES IS A BIT VARIABLE SO NO BIG CHANCES NOR ANY THREAT FOR
ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
ARCTIC BOUNDARY SURGING SOUTH WITH SNOWFALL TEMPERARILY REDUCING
VISILITY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS. CEILINGS WILL ALSO
TUMBLE INTO THE MVFR IF NOT BRIEFLY THE IFR CATEGORY...BEFORE
IMPROVING AGAIN THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE THIS EVENING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ050-052-053-
057>060-063>065-068>071.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR SDZ039-040-055-056-062-067.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ071-097-098.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ020-031.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR IAZ001-012.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
627 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
ON THE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS EVIDENT ON THE OVERNIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS BACKDOOR ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ELONGATED
UPPER WAVE WITH ONE CENTER IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A SECOND IN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY A THIRD IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
EXTREMELY COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM DEALING WITH CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE...POP DISTRIBUTION...AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE. TIMING OF BOUNDARY HAS COME INTO A CLEARER FOCUS
ON 00Z/06Z SOLUTION SETS...BACKING TO HURON/SIOUX FALLS/SPENCER LINE
BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 18Z...THEN
CONTINUING A QUICKENING PACE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATION IS IMPORTANT AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POST FRONTAL...AND TO CONSIDER LOCATIONS WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
TO WARM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
WIND IS THE FIRST FEATURE OF THE SYSTEM TODAY. WILL BE FAIRLY WELL
MIXED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL SEE 925 HPA WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATER MORNING AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC MISSOURI VALLEY TRACK TO STRONGEST
OFF SURFACE WIND CORE FROM 925 TO 850 HPA. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING
MASSIVE PRESSURE RISES OF 8-12 HPA/3H ASSOCIATED WITH THE FINAL WAVE
WHICH TIMES OUT TO DIG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD PROVIDE A STRONG PULSE TO WINDS WHICH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...THEN INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY END UP HAVING TO ADD COUPLE MORE TIERS
OF COUNTIES EASTWARD INTO THE WIND ADVISORY IF TRENDS IN 06Z NAM
WIND/PRESSURE TENDENCY CONTINUE TO BECOME EVIDENT. NO REASON TO
DOUBT WITH 9-10 HPA/3H RISES ON CURRENT ANALYSIS.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST ADVERTISED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DID SLOW UP THE ONSET SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WILL GET A STRONG COOLING AND
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. LIFT PROVIDED PRIMARILY WITH THE
ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR...A SHALLOW FORCING. COULD BE A LITTLE
BROADENING OF THE PRECIP AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH PASSAGE OF THIRD UPPER WAVE
ENERGY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FLAVOR OF THE SNOW DISTRIBUTION
IS TIED TO THE 925-850 HPA FRONTOGENESIS. WILL LIKELY END UP WITH A
BAND OF A INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL SD INTO
NW IA...TAPERING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW
AS STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE MELTED TO
SNOW FREE PRIOR TO SNOWFALL TODAY...AND GREATER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE WITH A PERSISTENT MODEST WEST NORTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS. WILL HAVE THESE
CLOUDS THIN SOMEWHAT LATE IN CURRENT NIGHT...AND IF WINDS DROP A BIT
WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN. HIGHS UP NORTH ARE CERTAINLY GOING TO BE
EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN SEE A DRASTIC PLUNGE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY. COMPLEX FORECAST AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WARM
IT MAY GET AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR PUSH THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY
TODAY...WITH WARMEST SOLUTION IN RAP SUGGESTING SOME LOWER TO MID
40S ARE AN EASY REACH. MADE SOME DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE TEMP
FORECAST FOR TODAY...WARMING UP SOME LOCATIONS 7-10 DEGREES FROM
EARLIER FORECAST...AND EVEN UP A HALF DOZEN IN THE NORTH IN PLACES
WITH HOPES THAT DO NOT GET TOO MUCH OF A LATE NIGHT DIP.
FINALLY...WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT FROM JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR IN SD TO JUST
EAST OF IT AROUND KSUX. WHILE REALIZE THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL KICK
INTO CRITERIA A BIT SOONER AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS LATER...BUT
STARTED ALL LOCATIONS UP AT THE SAME TIME FOR SIMPLICITY. DID
THROUGH DROP OFF THE WESTERN HALF LATE AT NIGHT GIVEN THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE RIDGE AND LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT WINDS...COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER EAST IN SW MN AND NW IA. EVEN WITHOUT WINDS...WILL SEE SOME
LOWS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT ALSO SHOULD START TO GET
SOME MODIFICATION TO READINGS LATER IN THE WEST WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND THICKER HIGH CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
A VERY COLD START TO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. SOME WARMING WILL TRY TO DEVELOP BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AS THE STUBBORN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT THE PUSH OF WARMER
AIR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM ABOUT THE MID 30S NEAR GREGORY SD
TO NEAR 10 ABOVE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
TOO FAR OVERNIGHT BUT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RISE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THOSE CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR ZERO IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO
NEAR 20 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR BUT ONLY IN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE
COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH. IN FACT...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY DARN COLD AS A 1050 MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL WELL INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. AND WITH WEAK MIXING ON
THURSDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SPOTS WITH
15 TO 20 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS...FRI/SUN...A FAIRLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT REESTABLISHES WHICH KEEPS THE AREA WITHIN A VARIABLE
THERMAL REGIME. WILL NOT LEAN HARD IN ANY ONE DIRECTION DURING THIS
TIME AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT IS LARGE ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA THAT
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY WAVE WILL MAKE POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCES. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY BUT THIS LIKE THE
TEMPERATURES IS A BIT VARIABLE SO NO BIG CHANCES NOR ANY THREAT FOR
ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
VERY COMPLEX AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING FROM NORTHERN SD INTO CENTRAL IA...AND ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. LIFR STRATUS WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND THERE WILL ALSO BE AN
AREA OF SNOWFALL WORKING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 2 MILES ON THE AVERAGE...PERHAPS BRIEFLY 1/2 MILE...
FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS WILL ALSO
EXCEED 35 KNOTS FOR KHON/KFSD AND KSUX BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND EVEN EARLY EVENING AT KSUX.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SDZ050-057-058-063-064-068-069.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR SDZ039-040-055-056-062-067.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ071-097-098.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR IAZ001-012.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
412 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
ON THE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS EVIDENT ON THE OVERNIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS BACKDOOR ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ELONGATED
UPPER WAVE WITH ONE CENTER IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A SECOND IN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY A THIRD IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
EXTREMELY COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM DEALING WITH CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE...POP DISTRIBUTION...AND WIND ASSOSICATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE. TIMING OF BOUNDARY HAS COME INTO A CLEARER FOCUS
ON 00Z/06Z SOLUTION SETS...BACKING TO HURON/SIOUX FALLS/SPENCER LINE
BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 18Z...THEN
CONTINUING A QUICKENING PACE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATION IS IMPORTANT AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POST FRONTAL...AND TO CONSIDER LOCATIONS WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
TO WARM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
WIND IS THE FIRST FEATURE OF THE SYSTEM TODAY. WILL BE FAIRLY WELL
MIXED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL SEE 925 HPA WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATER MORNING AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC MISSOURI VALLEY TRACK TO STRONGEST
OFF SURFACE WIND CORE FROM 925 TO 850 HPA. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING
MASSIVE PRESSURE RISES OF 8-12 HPA/3H ASSOCIATED WITH THE FINAL WAVE
WHICH TIMES OUT TO DIG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD PROVIDE A STRONG PULSE TO WINDS WHICH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...THEN INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY END UP HAVING TO ADD COUPLE MORE TIERS
OF COUNTIES EASTWARD INTO THE WIND ADVISORY IF TRENDS IN 06Z NAM
WIND/PRESSURE TENDENCY CONTINUE TO BECOME EVIDENT. NO REASON TO
DOUBT WITH 9-10 HPA/3H RISES ON CURRENT ANALYSIS.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST ADVERTISED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DID SLOW UP THE ONSET SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WILL GET A STRONG COOLING AND
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. LIFT PROVIDED PRIMARILY WITH THE
ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR...A SHALLOW FORCING. COULD BE A LITTLE
BROADENING OF THE PRECIP AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH PASSAGE OF THIRD UPPER WAVE
ENERGY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FLAVOR OF THE SNOW DISTRIBUTION
IS TIED TO THE 925-850 HPA FRONTOGENESIS. WILL LIKELY END UP WITH A
BAND OF A INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL SD INTO
NW IA...TAPERING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW
AS STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE MELTED TO
SNOW FREE PRIOR TO SNOWFALL TODAY...AND GREATER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE WITH A PERSISTENT MODEST WEST NORTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS. WILL HAVE THESE
CLOUDS THIN SOMEWHAT LATE IN CURRENT NIGHT...AND IF WINDS DROP A BIT
WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN. HIGHS UP NORTH ARE CERTAINLY GOING TO BE
EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN SEE A DRASTIC PLUNGE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY. COMPLEX FORECAST AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WARM
IT MAY GET AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR PUSH THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY
TODAY...WITH WARMEST SOLUTION IN RAP SUGGESTING SOME LOWER TO MID
40S ARE AN EASY REACH. MADE SOME DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE TEMP
FORECAST FOR TODAY...WARMING UP SOME LOCATIONS 7-10 DEGREES FROM
EARLIER FORECAST...AND EVEN UP A HALF DOZEN IN THE NORTH IN PLACES
WITH HOPES THAT DO NOT GET TOO MUCH OF A LATE NIGHT DIP.
FINALLY...WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT FROM JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR IN SD TO JUST
EAST OF IT AROUND KSUX. WHILE REALIZE THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL KICK
INTO CRITERIA A BIT SOONER AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS LATER...BUT
STARTED ALL LOCATIONS UP AT THE SAME TIME FOR SIMPLICITY. DID
THROUGH DROP OFF THE WESTERN HALF LATE AT NIGHT GIVEN THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE RIDGE AND LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT WINDS...COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER EAST IN SW MN AND NW IA. EVEN WITHOUT WINDS...WILL SEE SOME
LOWS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT ALSO SHOULD START TO GET
SOME MODIFICATION TO READINGS LATER IN THE WEST WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND THICKER HIGH CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014
A VERY COLD START TO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. SOME WARMING WILL TRY TO DEVELOP BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AS THE STUBBORN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT THE PUSH OF WARMER
AIR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM ABOUT THE MID 30S NEAR GREGORY SD
TO NEAR 10 ABOVE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
TOO FAR OVERNIGHT BUT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RISE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THOSE CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR ZERO IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO
NEAR 20 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR BUT ONLY IN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE
COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH. IN FACT...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY DARN COLD AS A 1050 MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL WELL INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. AND WITH WEAK MIXING ON
THURSDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SPOTS WITH
15 TO 20 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS...FRI/SUN...A FAIRLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT REESTABLISHES WHICH KEEPS THE AREA WITHIN A VARIABLE
THERMAL REGIME. WILL NOT LEAN HARD IN ANY ONE DIRECTION DURING THIS
TIME AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT IS LARGE ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA THAT
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY WAVE WILL MAKE POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCES. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY BUT THIS LIKE THE
TEMPERATURES IS A BIT VARIABLE SO NO BIG CHANCES NOR ANY THREAT FOR
ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AFTER 09Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
15Z ON MONDAY...CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SDZ050-057-058-063-064-068-069.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR SDZ039-040-055-056-062-067.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ071-097-098.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR IAZ001-012.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
808 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE SNOW THAT IS
ENTERING THE AREA AND WITH HOW MUCH WILL FALL. STARTING TO HAVE
CONCERNS THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO SEE AS MUCH AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY...THE FIRST WAVE IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AIR MASS.
VISIBILITIES ARE ONLY AROUND 4SM RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD NOT CHANGE
MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. THAT WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FIRST BAND. THE SECOND WAVE IS THE MORE
POTENT WAVE AND WILL COME THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT WHAT IS COMING OUR
WAY...MANY OF THE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
2SM RANGE AND IS ONLY OVER A NARROW SWATH. THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE NOT BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS BUT AT LEAST MIRROR WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING. WHILE THE LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
LOOKS DECENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT...WOULD REALLY PREFER TO
SEE A TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TO GET
INTO THE HEAVIER SNOWS. WHILE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER
SIDE...QPF STILL LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT AROUND 0.05". AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THAT 3" LOOKS LIKE A HIGH MARK TO HIT FROM THIS
SNOW WITH 2" OR LESS LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING AIM ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
SLIDING THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. GOOD QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE. THERMODYNAMICS ARE ALSO GOOD...WITH 925-700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K SFCS LEADING THE CHARGE -
MAXED IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. SATURATION ISN/T THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT DEEP ENOUGH PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. MOST FAVORABLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
WITH THIS AMPLE FORCING AND SUFFICIENT SATURATION...THE AREA CAN
EXPECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AS FOR HOW MUCH...LATEST
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS VIA THE NAM AND GFS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC ZONE GROWTH REGION FROM THE SFC TO NEARLY 8 KFT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK LIFT DURING
THIS TIME. BIG...FLUFFY FLAKES ARE LIKELY...AND RAPID ACCUMULATIONS
COULD OCCUR. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY THOUGH...AND QPF IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THIS WILL HOLD DOWN THE AMOUNTS. SNOW RATIOS OF
20/30 TO 1 STILL LOOK GOOD...RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 INCHES TOTALS.
WINDS ARE GOING TO PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IOWA...AND AREA RIDGE-TOPS. NOT SURE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SO COVER THESE IMPACTS...BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SWEEPS IN WITH THE TROUGH AND PASSING SFC
COLD FRONT WED MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
FROM THE MORNING READINGS. CLOUDS COULD LINGER FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EAST FOR A BETTER PART OF THE WED NIGHT...INHIBITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT LOWS SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT FROM THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COUPLE THIS WITH THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 25
TO 35 BELOW OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH THU MORNING. ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED - OR PERHAPS WINTER WEATHER ADV IF BLOWING
SNOW IS AN ISSUE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
GOOD CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS - GFS/ECMWF/GEM - WITH
DROPPING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION. BOTH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...AND COULD SEE TWO SEPARATE BANDS SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. SATURATION ISN/T THAT GREAT...AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY...WHICH WILL KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN. HARD TO QUANTIFY AT THIS
TIME...BUT LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR LESS AT THIS MOMENT.
WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES FOR FRIDAY...AND
HIGHS COULD VENTURE BACK TO THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE RETURN WOULD
BE VERY BRIEF AS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THE STRONGER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. 850 MB TEMPS
WOULD DROP TO -24 C ON SAT VIA THE GFS. HIGHS ON SAT COULD OCCUR IN
THE EARLY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY/FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY.
MIGHT AS WELL JUMP ON THE WAVE TRAIN...AS YOUR TICKET HAS ALREADY
BEEN PUNCHED. WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD SLIP ACROSS THE REGION SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TIMING AND POSITIONING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/IF IT WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. WHEREVER IT TRACKS...SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW IS WITH THE SNOW ABOUT TO REACH
THE REGION FOLLOWED BY HOW MUCH BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
AFTER A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE AND IS TRACKING TO THE EAST. VISIBILITY IS MAINLY AROUND 4SM
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW FURTHER WEST
WHERE VIS IS AROUND 1 TO 2SM. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKENING TO THIS BAND AS IT TRACKS
EAST THIS EVENING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF SNOW COMING IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
LULL IN BETWEEN THE SNOW BANDS TONIGHT THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD
MAINLY STAY AT LEAST MVFR. START UP TIME FOR THE SNOW STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE AROUND 2Z AT RST AND 5Z AT LSE WITH IT ENDING
AROUND DAY BREAK TOMORROW MORNING.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AND MARKS THE END OF THE MAIN
SNOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE AND CAUSE
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT RST. HOW LOW CONDITIONS GO IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AND IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS OVERNIGHT.
REGARDLESS...THEY SHOULD STAY AT LEAST MVFR WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
343 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014
.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THREE MAIN ISSUES TO ZERO IN ON. FIRST IS THE ENDING OF THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWS. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR THE NE EXTENT OF SNOW SWATH.
WILL BASE FORECAST ON RADAR ANIMATION BRINGING A STEADIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS SW 1/2 OF CWA. SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
EXPECTED TO LOSE INFLUENCE BEYOND MID EVENING OR SO. UPSTREAM VSBYS
IN THE MAIN BAND 1-2SM SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. NEXT FOCUS
IS ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A WINDOW OF
BORDERLINE ONSHORE FLOW EVOLVING VCNTY MID LAKE EAST OF KMTW. DELTA T
RISES AS HIGH AS 20-22 WITH THE ARCTIC INVASION WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
RISING TO NEAR 7K FEET. HOWEVER FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO NOTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION. 4KM
WRF SHOWS THE BAND STAYING JUST EAST OF THE SHORE WITH THE THE OTHER
MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF BRUSHING THE FAR SE CORNER.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING IN THE FAR SE LATER IN THE NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL. LAST CONCERN BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST IS
THE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO DROP AS LOW AS -19
TO -21C WITH 25 KNOTS. WITH WIND CHILLS PROGGD TO REACH -20 IN AT
LEAST THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTIES...WILL EXPAND WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. COORD WITH KLOT ON THIS.
.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AT THE OUTSET. PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGD TO
STILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT THOUGH GRADUALLY EASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO WRN WI. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. COLD THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS -17 TO -19C.
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY...AND BEING
ABSORBED BY...A STRONGER WAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY
EVENING DRY THEN BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS INTO ALL BUT THE FAR EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH MAINLY ISENTROPIC FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD
WAVE...AND WENT WITH CONSENSUS BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY AS MAIN SHORT
WAVE PASSES THROUGH. MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL IN THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS ALL MODELS BUT THE NAM CURRENTLY LIMITING SNOW AFTER
18Z TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES....WHICH IS WHY THE CONSENSUS BLEND
SHOWS NO BETTER THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD...SO
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE MORNING AND DROP THEM TO SLIGHTS IN
THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING FOR LOWS AROUND 12 MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERN TIP
OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER AREA...THEN TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. APPARENT TEMPERATURES APPROACH WIND CHILL
CRITERIA AROUND 06Z THEN RISE WITH THE TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER NOON THEN FALLING TEMPS AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
ARCTIC AIR STREAMS BACK IN ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AS BROAD HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
925 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING
BELOW ZERO EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKESHORE...AND CLOSE TO 10 BELOW IN THE
FAR WEST. EXPECT TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA EVERYWHERE
BUT THE FAR EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE STIFF WINDS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ONLY
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER CLOSED 500 MB LOW DOWN TOWARD JAMES BAY
FRIDAY WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO MODIFY 925MB-850
MB TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY....THOUGH BELOW ZERO LOWS AND WEST
WINDS BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THURSDAY NIGHT.
NON-DIURNAL TRENDS TO TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF TROUGH
DROPPING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 24 HOUR HIGHS REACHED LATE
IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING FRIDAY...AND BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY.
CHANCE OF SNOW AS COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS...ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL KEEP THE LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO THIS
EVENING. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WILL BE
WATCHING FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND BRUSHING AREAS FROM KMKE
SOUTHWARD. GRADUAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RH LATER TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...WITH NORTH WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL GO AHEAD AND START THE SMALL CRAFT WITH THE MID
AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. IN ADDITION EXPECTING A PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND INFLUX
OF ARCTIC AIR. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL EASE
AND TURN A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-
047-051-052-056>060-062>072.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...99
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
340 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHEN TRYING TO DESCRIBE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...IT IS SIMILAR
TO A CAR STUCK IN NEUTRAL. THE ENGINE STARTS UP...BUT DOESN`T GO
ANYWHERE. MOTHER NATURE CLEARLY HAS DECIDED TO LOCK THE REGION
INTO A COLD PATTERN...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE PROGGED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SO IF YOU ENJOYED THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...GOOD NEWS...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. ALAS WE ARE WITHIN TWO
WEEKS OF SEEING WHAT A SPECIAL GROUNDHOG WILL PREDICT.
THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN RELATIVELY QUIET...HOWEVER THIS WILL MERELY
BE A TEASE AS A CLIPPER CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ARRIVE ACROSS WISC SPREADING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH
LATER THIS MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
DYNAMICS WITH THIS NEXT WAVE HAVE STRENGTHENED MARGINALLY...WITH A
NARROW CHANNEL OF MOISTENING/ASCENDING PARCELS INTO A FAVORABLE DGZ.
THE BEST AREA FOR LIGHT ACCUMUS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DIXON TO KANKAKEE TO FOWLER LINE...WITH GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.0
SNOWFALL. SOUTH OF THIS LINE UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS
POSSIBLE...MEANWHILE A NARROW AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST IL COULD SEE
UP TO 2.0 INCHES OF FRESH POWDERY SNOWFALL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
TEENS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE
LINGERING POTENT THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THAT
TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM WITH WINDS
HAVING BECOME SOUTHERLY. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW TO UPPER
TEENS.
CLIPPER WILL PUSH INTO WESTCENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE...WITH A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
IL AND VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. A
SHARP INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT AS A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...AND
UNFORTUNATELY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO TO ARND 0 NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WELL BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS WEST OF I-355. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 30-35 MPH AND FORECAST TEMPS...WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO ARND -20 TO -25 TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY IN FORECAST TEMPS/WINDS...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY/FORECAST...HIGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WHILE THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...THE EFFECTS WILL
LINGER WITH CLOUDS HOLDING THRU THUR MORNING BEFORE THE STRONG SFC
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO ERODE THE LINGERING MOISTURE
BY THE AFTN HOURS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWFA THUR...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS IN THE FAR WESTERN CWFA
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO THUR. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY THUR...HOWEVER NOT AS
POTENT AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS IT APPEARS WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL RISE ABOVE CRITERIA TO -5 TO -15 DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED UP WITH YET ANOTHER BLUSTERY NIGHT HEADING
INTO FRI.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY THUR EVENING...ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY
WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
STEADILY WARM THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT STARTING ARND -20 DEG C TO ARND
-9 DEG C BY DAYBREAK FRI. WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CHALLENGE FOR
SFC TEMPS...AND CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THUR EVE
BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND AFT MIDNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNS THUR NGT/EARLY FRI...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING WIND CHILL
VALUES BACK TO AT LEAST -20 TO -25 TO POSSIBLY NEARING -30 DEG F BY
MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WIND CHILL WARNING
CRITERIA...SO DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST ANY WIND CHILL WATCH YET.
ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES EAST ACROSS MANITOBA TOWARDS JAMES
BAY FRI...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN IL FRI NGT. PRIOR TO FROPA...WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS COULD SEE A QUICK BUMP INTO THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPR 20S FRI...AND THAT MAY EVEN BE A TAD TOO
CONSERVATIVE. WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A HANDFUL OF
POINTS TAG 30-32 DEGREES...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LATE WEEK WAVE...INDICATING SNOW ACCUMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT RATIOS WILL HOVER IN THE 20:1 TO 25:1...WITH
POSSIBLY 1-3" OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK SAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DIXON IL TO FOWLER IN LINE.
CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THUR NGT...HIGH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG MINIMAL CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN...HOWEVER SOME MINOR RELAXING MAY TAKE PLACE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIODS WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN CANADA.
THROUGH AT LEAST MON...THE WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WILL FLIRT WITH +4
SIGMA. THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LOCKS THE TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS HAVE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR
SUN...AND PRESENTLY IS EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
MARGINALLY WITH THE RECENT CYCLES BEGINNING TO HAVE SOME
CONSISTENCY. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS FAVORABLE ON THE NOSE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH A FLATTENING IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWFA. THIS MAY BE AN EARLY INDICATION THAT AN FGEN BAND
COULD DEVELOP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
ARCTIC AIR RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS YET AGAIN
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT AND STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW SUN...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS.
* PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE.
* COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...AND WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VIS AND
CONTAMINATE PLOWED SURFACES.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS SET TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THE
SNOW COULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT SETS
UP IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST TIME FOR IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS
THIS WELL HANDLED...SO I DID NOT STRAY FROM THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE BETTER SNOWFALL. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS AND A HOUR OR SO SOONER AT KRFD.
ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KT FOR A PERIOD.
THESE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF
BLSN...EVEN AFTER THE SNOW STOPS FALLING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...BUT LIKELY NOT BELOW 5SM.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GRADUAL LOWERING VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/IMPACTS OF SNOW ON VIS/CIG
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW JUST OFF TO THE
EAST OF ORD/MDW.
FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WITH BLOWING
SNOW LIKELY...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR.
RATZER/KB
&&
.MARINE...
339 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SEVERAL HEADLINE WORTHY WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE LAKE.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE LAKE...A STRONG PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL SETUP SOME GALE FORCE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
THEREFORE I UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND MOVED IT UP A
FEW HOURS. I ALSO INCLUDED MY INDIANA NEAR SHORES IN THIS
WARNING...AS IT APPEARS A NARROW CHANNEL OF STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40
KT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LAND-LAKE CONVERGENCE
LAKE EFFECT BAND. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF GALES ALONG MY
ILLINOIS NEAR SHORES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT HERE...I FELT BETTER GOING WITH A 30 KT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND MENTIONING SOME 35 KT GALE FORCE GUSTS. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL ABATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG GALES WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS EVENT AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HIGH END
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF 45 KT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY ON BOTH THE NORTH
AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL EVEN OCCUR WITH THIS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. I HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. A
GALE WATCH OR STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT.
IF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY GALES UP TO 40 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
THURSDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...3 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014
Will issue a wind chill advisory across central and southeast IL
from 9 pm this evening through noon on Thursday for wind chills
between 15 and 25 below zero. Northern areas will come close to
wind chill warning criteria of 25 below zero or colder late
tonight into mid morning Thursday. A wind chill advisory may be
needed again Thurday night into mid morning Friday.
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night
A long wave upper level trof will remain over the eastern states
through next week with temps staying below normal, though some
brief modification this weekend. Series of clipper systems/
northern stream short waves will continue to dive se into the
region every few days bring periodic chances of light snow. 1st
one to mainly pass to our ne today and then next one arriving
Friday night and another one on Sunday with better chance of light
snow accumulations Friday night and Sunday.
504 dm 500 mb low between Hudson Bay and Lake Superior will send
a northern stream short wave/clipper se into the great lakes
region today. Central IL will be on the sw fringe of this system
and only expect a chance of light snow or flurries today with
light dusting from I-74 ne. Short wave quickly exits se into the
upper ohio river valley while 1048 mb arctic high pressure settles
into the central Plains Thu and into AR/western TN by dawn Friday.
Arctic cold front passes se through central IL this afternoon with
brisk nw winds behind the front driving down wind chills. Arctic
air mass in place through Friday morning to ensure wind chills of
15 to 25 below zero after 9 pm this evening, though se counties
will likely not reach the criteria until during overnight and
continue Thu morning. AReas from I-74 north could see wind chills
reach 25 below zero or colder for a few hours late tonight into
mid morning Thu and may need to upgrade to a wind chill warning.
Another very cold night expected Thursday night with lows zero to
5 below zero while wind chills back down to 15 to 23 below zero
Thu night into mid morning Friday. Increased sw winds Friday with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely and helping to raise temps into the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with sw areas 30-32F by
Jacksonville and west. Another strong clipper system dives into
the Great Lakes region Friday night and appears to bring better
chances of light snow accumulations to central IL with up to 1
inch possible and possibly a bit nore ne of I-74. Will be windy
with some blowing of this snow Friday night into Saturday morning
as light snow diminishes then. Highs Sat range from mid 20s north
of Peoria to 30-35F from I-72 south.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday
Yet another clipper system to bring a chance of light snow to the
IL river valley overnight Sat night and across the area on Sunday
as it moves into the great lakes region. Could be light snow
accumulations again near 1 inch or less especilly from I-74 ne.
Highs Sunday in the upper 20s ne and 30-35F sw areas. Then another
surge of arctic air to arrive early next work week and wind chills
could reach 15 to 20 below zero Monday night. The 8-14 day outlook
through Feb 4 continues 50-65% chance of below normal temperatures
and 40% chance of above normal precipitation which would likely
fall as more snow.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014
Main forecast challenge will be if cigs drop to MVFR Wednesday
afternoon and evening behind another strong surge of Arctic air.
Cloud bases continue to slowly lower late this evening and expect
this trend to continue overnight as another fast moving weather
system approaches our area from the northwest. Already seeing some
isolated flurries being reported over parts of central and eastern
Iowa in advance of the upper wave. Coverage of activity out to our
west is quite limited and based on the 00Z ILX sounding, the dry
atmosphere present in our area may keep the flurries from being much
of a factor thru most of this forecast period. A few models suggest
cigs may lower to MVFR after the cold frontal passage tomorrow
afternoon. Both the HRRR and RAP models indicate cig bases will lower
to between 3000-3500 feet by afternoon just behind the cold front.
We trended in that direction with the 00z forecast and see no strong
evidence at this point to make any significant changes.
Another concern will be with the gusty northwest winds that will
be dominant behind the Arctic cold front tomorrow afternoon thru
tomorrow night. Initially, surface winds will be light southerly
late tonight, and then south to southwest at 10 to 15 kts tomorrow
morning. Just after FROPA, expect northwest winds to prevail at 12
to 17 kts with Bufkit soundings indicating gusts in the 25 to 30 kt
range tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to Noon CST Thursday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1148 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
913 PM CST
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER COUNTY PRIOR
TO ITS ORIGINAL MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION...AS LAKE SNOW BAND CONTINUES
TO DETERIORATE. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
03Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
IL...WITH DIMINISHING/BACKING WINDS HELPING TO ALLOW EARLIER
STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. RADAR TRENDS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOW WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE LINGERS INTO
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY...THOUGH REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND EXPECT CONTINUED DECAY AS RIDGE AXIS AT
THE SURFACE AND JUST ALOFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST.
OVER NORTHERN IL...EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVER SNOW COVER HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS IN MANY SPOTS AWAY FROM CHICAGO...THOUGH INCREASING
HIGH/MID CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THESE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEAKER MEMBER OF A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH
THE IL/WI STATE LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN/NORTH CENTRAL IL BY
SUNRISE. HAVE PUSHED THE START OF POPS BACK JUST A LITTLE FROM
06-09Z IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS/TSECTS...WHICH INDICATE
SOME MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS MUST OCCUR FIRST AS LARGE SCALE
FORCING BEGINS TO INCREASE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES MADE INTO TOMORROW.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 PM CST
SYNOPSIS...BUSY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLIPPER COUNT CONTINUING TO INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES AND UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHARP RIDGING IS STRETCHED FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IS A CORRIDOR OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS RATHER
SUBTLE BUT PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THE NEXT WAVE IS MORE ORGANIZED AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. OVERALL THIS SAME PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TRACKS OF THE VARIOUS
SURFACE LOWS WILL VARY QUITE A BIT.
LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...FIRST UP IS CONTINUING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA. SYNOPTIC SCALE
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAS BEGUN TO
TURN WESTERLY WITH SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWING AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE
BAND FURTHER UP THE LAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS A BIT BETTER
ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO EASTERN
ILLINOIS KEEPING A STEADIER NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION...WHILE THE
FLOW TO THE EAST HAS BEEN WEAKER AND MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MESOSCALE
LAKE INFLUENCES. AS A RESULT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND HAS
BEEN ORIENTED TO THE SOUTHWEST KEEPING IT ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE CIRCULATIONS/EDDIES MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAND WHICH
HAVE BEEN HELPING THE BAND TO UNDULATE BACK AND FORTH FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT THE
INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE BAND
SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A MORE PRONOUNCED TRACK TO THE EAST...THOUGH
THIS MAY BE GRADUAL. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WITH THE WEAK FLOW
REGIME OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE... LAND BREEZE PROCESS
MAY TAKE OVER AND HELP UNDULATE THE BAND BACK WEST AGAIN LATER THIS
EVENING. DO EXPECT THAT THE WESTERLY AND EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH THE CONVERGENCE BACK OFFSHORE SOME TIME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR. WITH ALL
OF THIS WILL LET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUE UNTIL 5 PM
CST FOR LAKE COUNTY WITH THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO WORK
INTO PORTER BY ABOUT THAT TIME. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR PORTER
AND EXTEND IT UNTIL MIDNIGHT THINKING THAT SNOW COVERAGE MAY BEGIN
TO DECREASE/BECOME MORE BROKEN WITH TIME. INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
WILL LIKELY STILL OCCUR...BUT THEY MAY BE FOR A SHORTER DURATION.
THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS...WITH SOME CHANCE
PORTER WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED IF THE REFLECTIVITY REMAINS
PERSISTENT AND THAT LAKE COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
MDB/ED F
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE
ARRIVING EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS PRONOUNCED THAN IT CURRENTLY IS. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING SHOULD BE CENTERED ABOVE THE DENDRITIC ZONE GIVEN HOW LOW IT
IS DUE TO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS FIRST WAVE OF FORCING
WILL PUSH ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND LOOKS TO BRING AROUND A HALF
INCH OF ACCUMULATION TO MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME OF THE MORNING
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION GIVEN HOW
FAR SOUTH IT EXTENDS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE CURRENT
TIME...SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW. THE BETTER ORGANIZED WAVE NOTED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL THEN PIVOT THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL IN TURN DRAG A SHARP
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND ROUND OF SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER FORCING IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE SO
A BRIEF BUT INTENSE PERIOD OF SNOW MAY RESULT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT TOO WITH
A DRY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL AMOUNTS BY EARLY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH AT THIS POINT BUT IF THE AFTERNOON
SNOW IS MORE INTENSE THEN THIS MAY ITSELF BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES...ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH WARM
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE
REACHED EARLY TONIGHT...IN THE 0 TO 7 OR 8 BELOW RANGE...BEFORE
WARMING TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT SO WIND
CHILLS LOOK TO BE JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH. HIGHS DO
LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT INTO THE TEENS BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
PUSH LOWS BACK TO AROUND OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ALSO RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NORTH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE A STRONG HIGH MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPING WINDS FURTHER WEST NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR CONVERGENCE DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE AGAIN FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSE ASCENT OVER THE LAKE AND THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN IT LOOKED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DURATION OF FAVORABLE WINDS LOOKS QUITE A BIT
SHORTER THAN THE CURRENT EVENT. AS SEEN WITH THE CURRENT EVENT...THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT WILL IMPACT THE WIND FIELD BEHIND IT
AND ULTIMATELY THE PLACEMENT OF A LAKE BAND. SHOULD THE CURRENT
TRACK HOLD THEN IT DOES APPEAR THAT SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A WESTWARD MOVING BAND THURSDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST
SOME IMPACT POSSIBLE IN THE CWA. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS GIVEN WHAT
NEEDS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THAT TIME AND THE RECENT DIFFICULTY OF
GUIDANCE IN HANDLING OF SURFACE LOW TRACKS. OTHERWISE...BRISK NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE ARCTIC AIR
AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND OF 5 TO 10 BELOW
THURSDAY NIGHT TO CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO HEADLINE
CRITERIA...WITH WARNINGS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS HUDSON BAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET
UP BY FRIDAY MORNING COMBINING WITH WARMING ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS
IN THE LOW 20S. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THANKS TO THE ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
WITH THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. SEVERAL
MORE CLIPPERS LOOK ON TRACK STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOKING POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS.
* PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE.
* COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...AND WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VIS AND
CONTAMINATE PLOWED SURFACES.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS SET TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THE
SNOW COULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT SETS
UP IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST TIME FOR IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS
THIS WELL HANDLED...SO I DID NOT STRAY FROM THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE BETTER SNOWFALL. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS AND A HOUR OR SO SOONER AT KRFD.
ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KT FOR A PERIOD.
THESE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF
BLSN...EVEN AFTER THE SNOW STOPS FALLING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...BUT LIKELY NOT BELOW 5SM.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GRADUAL LOWERING VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/IMPACTS OF SNOW ON VIS/CIG
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW JUST OFF TO THE
EAST OF ORD/MDW.
FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WITH BLOWING
SNOW LIKELY...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR.
RATZER/KB
&&
.MARINE...
426 PM CST
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ISSUES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...GALES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE.
A FAIRLY BUSY FORECAST PERIOD STARTED OFF WITH A DIMINISHING TREND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BUILD SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THESE LIGHTER
SPEEDS WILL BE OBSERVED TONIGHT BUT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NEW LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
WEST NORTHWEST. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES TO
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...BEFORE
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER AND GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1115 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 835 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014
High pressure centered over central Illinois early this evening
will shift off to our east overnight allowing a light southerly
wind to develop over the area. That combined with an increase in
clouds will keep temperatures from falling off much further this
evening, especially across the west. Latest surface observations
out to our west indicate some flurries occurring over parts of
central Iowa ahead of another quick moving upper level wave and
associated cold front, which is slated to push across our area
on Wednesday. That cold front will deliver another bone chilling
cold air mass with dangerously cold wind chills Wednesday night
through Thursday. Have made some changes to the early evening
temperature trends across the forecast area as well as adding a
slight chance for flurries well after midnight mainly over the
west. Should have the updated zone forecast out by 900 pm.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014
Main forecast challenge will be if cigs drop to MVFR Wednesday
afternoon and evening behind another strong surge of Arctic air.
Cloud bases continue to slowly lower late this evening and expect
this trend to continue overnight as another fast moving weather
system approaches our area from the northwest. Already seeing some
isolated flurries being reported over parts of central and eastern
Iowa in advance of the upper wave. Coverage of activity out to our
west is quite limited and based on the 00Z ILX sounding, the dry
atmosphere present in our area may keep the flurries from being much
of a factor thru most of this forecast period. A few models suggest
cigs may lower to MVFR after the cold frontal passage tomorrow
afternoon. Both the HRRR and RAP models indicate cig bases will lower
to between 3000-3500 feet by afternoon just behind the cold front.
We trended in that direction with the 00z forecast and see no strong
evidence at this point to make any significant changes.
Another concern will be with the gusty northwest winds that will
be dominant behind the Arctic cold front tomorrow afternoon thru
tomorrow night. Initially, surface winds will be light southerly
late tonight, and then south to southwest at 10 to 15 kts tomorrow
morning. Just after FROPA, expect northwest winds to prevail at 12
to 17 kts with Bufkit soundings indicating gusts in the 25 to 30 kt
range tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014
Models continue to reflect the persistance of the longwave trough
anchored over eastern North America. Occasional clippers bring light
precip and reinforcing cold air to the upstream side of the trough
in the northwest flow. Main differences in the models is the
amount of moisture available with each of these weak systems and
the amount of cold air surging into the area in the wake of each
system.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday
Quick northwest flow continues to produce a train of systems
across the midwest. High pressure ridge extending from southwest
Wisconsion into eastern Kansas this afternoon will move across
Illinois this evening. The light winds, mostly clear skies, and
cold airmass should enable temperatures to fall early this
evening. After midnight, southerly winds are expected to develop
on the backside of the ridge and ahead of the next weak clipper.
With the winds picking up, temperatures should rise. There may be
a brief period of time as the winds first start to increase where
wind chills may drop to near advisory levels, but this period
should be short-lived and a wind chill advisory will likely not be
needed.
The moisture-starved clipper system moves northeast of the
forecast area on Wednesday. a few flurries will be possible with
the best chances northeast of I-74. 12z NAM is the only model from
the latest suite to indicate chance of measurable so will keep
meantion as flurries. The system will trail a cold front through
the area during the afternoon reinforcing the arctic air mass in
place. Forecasted temperatures at 850 mb drop below 20C across
much of the forecast area by 12z Thursday. Cold temperatures (from
-7F GBG to +6C LWV) coupled with northwest winds of 10-20 mph should
once again drop wind chills below -15F across most of the forecast
area. It is likely that an advisory will be required. Highs will
only rise a few degrees from morning lows on Thursday as cold
northwest winds persist.
LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Another cold night Thursday Night can be expected though not quite
as cold as Wednesday Night as winds shift to the southwest ahead
of the next system. Temperatures should climb almost back to
normal for the latter half of January for Friday through Sunday...
before a strong cold front moves through Illinois early next week.
There is some range in model temperature solutions for the
weekend. On the edges of the envelope are the GEM raising 850 mb
temperatures to near 0C by 12z Sunday while the ECMWF is almost 20
degrees C colder. At this time will split the difference which is
slightly above the 12z MEX guidance. Colder air returns for Monday
and Tuesday with temperatures once again more consistent between
models and resulting in highs mostly in the teens and lows near
zero.
Although moisture remains rather limited, appears there may be a
chance of light snow Friday night with sligh chances through much
of the weekend with skies generally mostly cloudy. At this time it
appears that any snow amounts should be less than an inch.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
424 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM
AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER
THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE
THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS
BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST
OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER
CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL.
HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN
AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA
THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD
MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN
ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL
EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING
INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC
TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.
SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
NAM SHOWS A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF 12Z THU. UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES OUT OF THE NORTH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE 12Z FRI AND FRI NIGHT. COUPLE
DIFFERENT CLIPPER SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA WITH ONE LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI AND ANOTHER FOR FRI NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE
ON FRI MORNING AND WENT LIKELY POPS OVER THE CWA THEN.
OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AND
PERSISTENCE LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
OVER MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SAT.
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH VERY COLD AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ALSO
MEAN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIKELY
POPS IN NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS. WENT WITH COLDER CONSALL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED AS ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WERE TOO
WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS FCST
PERIOD WILL BRING -SN TO THE AREA. -SN HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT
KIWD/KCMX. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL
LIKELY MAKE FOR PREVAILING IFR VIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AT
KIWD/KCMX...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM. SOME PERIODS
OF MVFR WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS WELL. AT KSAW...SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW
INITIALLY SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT N
AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX...ESPECIALLY
AT KCMX. COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLSN WILL RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AND
PROBABLY A PERIOD OF VLIFR AT KCMX LATE AFTN/EVENING WHEN CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS NOT TYPICALLY THE FAVORED DIRECTION FOR VERY LOW VIS AT KCMX...
BUT GIVEN EXPECTED WIND STRENGTH...LIFR/VLIFR APPEAR LIKELY. WITH
WINDS/SNOW NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
IFR THERE...BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE. AT KSAW...
CONDITIONS WON`T DETERIORATE BLO IFR UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH WILL
PLACE A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING...DURING WHICH IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
AND PASS A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 7
AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM
EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1153 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM
AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER
THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE
THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS
BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST
OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER
CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL.
HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN
AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA
THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD
MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN
ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL
EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING
INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC
TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.
SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE
OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER
REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING
ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES.
THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI
THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY
SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY.
WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/.
AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF
ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING
THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF
BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC.
WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT
TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO
-12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF
COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK
OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW
LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF
THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL
GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND
10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES
OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS FCST
PERIOD WILL BRING -SN TO THE AREA. -SN HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT
KIWD/KCMX. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL
LIKELY MAKE FOR PREVAILING IFR VIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AT
KIWD/KCMX...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM. SOME PERIODS
OF MVFR WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS WELL. AT KSAW...SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW
INITIALLY SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT N
AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX...ESPECIALLY
AT KCMX. COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLSN WILL RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AND
PROBABLY A PERIOD OF VLIFR AT KCMX LATE AFTN/EVENING WHEN CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION
IS NOT TYPICALLY THE FAVORED DIRECTION FOR VERY LOW VIS AT KCMX...
BUT GIVEN EXPECTED WIND STRENGTH...LIFR/VLIFR APPEAR LIKELY. WITH
WINDS/SNOW NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
IFR THERE...BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE. AT KSAW...
CONDITIONS WON`T DETERIORATE BLO IFR UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH WILL
PLACE A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING...DURING WHICH IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
AND PASS A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LSZ249-250-264>266.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO DECREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN CWA. ALSO
INCREASED DEWPOINTS CENTRAL AND EAST AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS IN
THE WESTERN CWA. INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS WE
LIE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF STRATUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH UPPER AIR PROFILER
AND SATELLITE DATA NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN. THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A RESULT OF
CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND TROUGHING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE GULF. SKY COVER HAS BEEN
VARIABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT
THE CWA CURRENTLY SEEING A BIT OF A BREAK AND GETTING A BETTER
SHOT OF SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SURFACE...A NOTABLE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS SET UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO WRN
KS...JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM NRN TX INTO MN/WI. THIS HAS LEFT THE CWA WITH SOUTH...TO
GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AS THAT FRONT HAS INCHED
CLOSER...AND HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE. WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL SEE A RISE IN
TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF THE WINDS CAN GET SWITCHED TO THE
WEST SOON...OTHERWISE TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN
ON THE COOL SIDE...AT 3PM SITTING IN THE MID 20S IN THE EAST TO
MID 30S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT
WITH THEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA...SO WILL
THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. NOT TO SAY THERE WILL BE NO
IMPACT...THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE WEST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY MIDDAY MOST/IF NOT ALL OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW /MAINLY THE AFTERNOON/...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE SWINGING SOUTH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT THE
HIGHEST...WITH A FEW MODELS TRYING TO SHOW THE CHANCE FOR PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT PRECIP SLIDING INTO THE AREA...BUT WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PRETTY DRY...PROB WOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
FLURRIES IF ANYTHING DID FALL. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST
INCLUDES BUMPING UP WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS /ESP THE
AFTERNOON/...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES AFFECTING THE
CWA...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADV
SPEEDS. ALSO TRENDED BACK HIGHS FOR TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES WITH
THAT NEXT BATCH OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN...WITH FORECAST CURRENTLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 30S IN THE SW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
ALOFT: DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE AND THE TROF OVER THE E
WILL AMPLIFY WED-THU. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...BUT THE INCREASED AMPLITUDE WILL RESULT IN BOUTS OF
CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS.
HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BLOSSOM TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FRI AND REMAIN ABOVE 2 SD THRU MON.
THIS WILL FORCE MORE BITTER COLD INTO THE ERN USA AND THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS COLD.
KEEP IN MIND THAT BITTER COLD IN NW FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DOESNT
LAST LONG HERE. WE NEED A TROF IN THE W AND THAT MAY BE COMING
IN EARLY FEB. THRU THE END OF THE MONTH THIS MEANS WILD TEMP
SWINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH DECIDEDLY MORE BRUSHES WITH
WINTERS COLD. SEE THE PATTERN SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON WHAT MAY
BE COMING.
AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE BENIGN TAIL ENDS OF TROFS ARE FCST TO
MOVE THRU 12AM-12PM THU...12AM-12PM FRI. UNCERTAINTY ON SUN-MON
BUT SOMETHING WILL BE APPROACHING. ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT WE WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET STREAKS FOR PRODUCING ANY
WX.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES /NEARLY 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL SLIP S
THRU THE PLAINS...CROSSING THE FCST AREA THU. DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND A SURFACE TROF WILL FOLLOW FRI IN THE "WARM" SECTOR OF VERY
DEEP LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE IN FRI NIGHT...BUT THE CORE OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR
WILL MISS TO THE E. HIGH PRES RAPIDLY DARTS THRU THE REGION SAT. A
CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO MT LATE...WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
ACROSS NEB/KS. THIS CLIPPER WILL RACE ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR TOP
BY DAYBREAK SUN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY SUN-
TUE...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROF
ALOFT AND THIS COLD SURGE. THE GEM AND EC ARE SHARPER AND MORE
POTENT THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENT 1-DAY
BLAST OF ARCTIC COLD. THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD? HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW WITH MODERATION IN TEMPS TUE-WED.
HAZARDS: A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE 10PM WED-11AM THU
FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WIND
EVENT FRI. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.
DAILY DETAILS...
WED NIGHT: COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/ CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.
LOW TEMPS WERE ACTUALLY INCREASED 4-7F DUE TO WINDS AND CLOUDS
WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART OVER THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO BE DOWN TO -25F NE OF THE
TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BEFORE MIDNIGHT
VIA THE BURST OF CAA. WINDS WILL DECREASE THEREAFTER...BUT THAT
IS WHEN TEMPS WILL COMPENSATE.
THU: A STEADY WIND OF 10-15 MPH IS EXPECTED AT DAWN. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE SUB-ZERO EVERYWHERE...BUT COLDEST FROM THE TRI-CITIES N
AND E.
ANY LEFTOVER HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SRN SKY DEPARTS LEAVING BRILLIANT
SUNSHINE...BUT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 3-4F USING
A 50-50 BLEND OF GFS AND GEM 2M TEMPS...WHICH NOW PUTS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS.
THU NIGHT: INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. RISING TEMPS APPEAR
PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A NON- TRADITIONAL TEMP CURVE IS IN THE
FCST.
FRI: MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. BY
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. THAT
COMPLICATES TEMPS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 49-59F...WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST.
SAT: DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS...TEMPS COULD BE WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATING. BELIEVE YOU CAN PROBABLY SAFELY ADD ANOTHER 5F TO THE
FCST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN 50-60F...WARMEST SW FROM BEAVER CITY TO
PLAINVILLE KS.
SUN: FAIR AND DRY. WE FINISH UP ANOTHER 3-DAY STRETCH OF MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH.
MON-TUE: COLDER THEN TEMPS PLUNGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
PATTERN: ENSEMBLES FROM MULTIPLE CENTERS PERSIST IN INDICATING A
MAJOR SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVES COME FEB. THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE IS
FCST TO BREAK DOWN WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PACIFIC.
THIS TELECONNECTS TO A WRN USA TROF. THE BIAS CORRECTED GEFS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PNA PATTERN TURNING NEGATIVE. THIS
SUGGESTS WE MAY NOT ESCAPE THIS WINTER WITHOUT SUFFERING THE BRUNT
OF A BLIZZARD OR TWO. OVERALL DEC-JAN HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL.
THAT COULD CHANGE.
ARCTIC COLD POURING INTO A WRN USA TROF MEANS THAT LONGER
STRETCHES OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPS BECOME MORE LIKELY. WE ARE ALSO
SEEING SIGNS OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBILITIES AROUND FEB
2-3...WHICH WOULD DELIVER SERIOUS WINTER COLD AND "POSSIBLY" SNOW.
ALL THIS SAID...ARE THE ENSEMBLES CORRECT? THE POOL OF ANOMALOUSLY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS REMAINS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. HARD TO IGNORE
THE EFFECTS GIVEN THAT POOL HAS SUPPORTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 13 MONTHS! WE DID SEE A PATTERN
CHANGE FROM DEC93-JAN94 TO FEB DESPITE A NE PACIFIC WARM POOL.
SO IT CAN HAPPEN. IF IT DOES...BELIEVE WE HAVE SOME NASTY PERIODS
OF WINTER STILL IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE
TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS UNTIL 15Z
OR 16Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH UPPER AIR PROFILER
AND SATELLITE DATA NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN. THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A RESULT OF
CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND TROUGHING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE GULF. SKY COVER HAS BEEN
VARIABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT
THE CWA CURRENTLY SEEING A BIT OF A BREAK AND GETTING A BETTER
SHOT OF SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SURFACE...A NOTABLE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS SET UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO WRN
KS...JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM NRN TX INTO MN/WI. THIS HAS LEFT THE CWA WITH SOUTH...TO
GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AS THAT FRONT HAS INCHED
CLOSER...AND HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE. WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL SEE A RISE IN
TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF THE WINDS CAN GET SWITCHED TO THE
WEST SOON...OTHERWISE TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN
ON THE COOL SIDE...AT 3PM SITTING IN THE MID 20S IN THE EAST TO
MID 30S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT
WITH THEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA...SO WILL
THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. NOT TO SAY THERE WILL BE NO
IMPACT...THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE WEST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY MIDDAY MOST/IF NOT ALL OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW /MAINLY THE AFTERNOON/...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE SWINGING SOUTH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT THE
HIGHEST...WITH A FEW MODELS TRYING TO SHOW THE CHANCE FOR PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT PRECIP SLIDING INTO THE AREA...BUT WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PRETTY DRY...PROB WOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
FLURRIES IF ANYTHING DID FALL. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST
INCLUDES BUMPING UP WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS /ESP THE
AFTERNOON/...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES AFFECTING THE
CWA...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADV
SPEEDS. ALSO TRENDED BACK HIGHS FOR TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES WITH
THAT NEXT BATCH OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN...WITH FORECAST CURRENTLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 30S IN THE SW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
ALOFT: DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE AND THE TROF OVER THE E
WILL AMPLIFY WED-THU. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...BUT THE INCREASED AMPLITUDE WILL RESULT IN BOUTS OF
CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS.
HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BLOSSOM TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FRI AND REMAIN ABOVE 2 SD THRU MON.
THIS WILL FORCE MORE BITTER COLD INTO THE ERN USA AND THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS COLD.
KEEP IN MIND THAT BITTER COLD IN NW FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DOESNT
LAST LONG HERE. WE NEED A TROF IN THE W AND THAT MAY BE COMING
IN EARLY FEB. THRU THE END OF THE MONTH THIS MEANS WILD TEMP
SWINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH DECIDEDLY MORE BRUSHES WITH
WINTERS COLD. SEE THE PATTERN SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON WHAT MAY
BE COMING.
AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE BENIGN TAIL ENDS OF TROFS ARE FCST TO
MOVE THRU 12AM-12PM THU...12AM-12PM FRI. UNCERTAINTY ON SUN-MON
BUT SOMETHING WILL BE APPROACHING. ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT WE WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET STREAKS FOR PRODUCING ANY
WX.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES /NEARLY 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL SLIP S
THRU THE PLAINS...CROSSING THE FCST AREA THU. DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND A SURFACE TROF WILL FOLLOW FRI IN THE "WARM" SECTOR OF VERY
DEEP LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE IN FRI NIGHT...BUT THE CORE OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR
WILL MISS TO THE E. HIGH PRES RAPIDLY DARTS THRU THE REGION SAT. A
CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO MT LATE...WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
ACROSS NEB/KS. THIS CLIPPER WILL RACE ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR TOP
BY DAYBREAK SUN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY SUN-
TUE...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROF
ALOFT AND THIS COLD SURGE. THE GEM AND EC ARE SHARPER AND MORE
POTENT THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENT 1-DAY
BLAST OF ARCTIC COLD. THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD? HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW WITH MODERATION IN TEMPS TUE-WED.
HAZARDS: A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE 10PM WED-11AM THU
FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WIND
EVENT FRI. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.
DAILY DETAILS...
WED NIGHT: COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/ CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.
LOW TEMPS WERE ACTUALLY INCREASED 4-7F DUE TO WINDS AND CLOUDS
WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART OVER THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO BE DOWN TO -25F NE OF THE
TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BEFORE MIDNIGHT
VIA THE BURST OF CAA. WINDS WILL DECREASE THEREAFTER...BUT THAT
IS WHEN TEMPS WILL COMPENSATE.
THU: A STEADY WIND OF 10-15 MPH IS EXPECTED AT DAWN. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE SUB-ZERO EVERYWHERE...BUT COLDEST FROM THE TRI-CITIES N
AND E.
ANY LEFTOVER HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SRN SKY DEPARTS LEAVING BRILLIANT
SUNSHINE...BUT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 3-4F USING
A 50-50 BLEND OF GFS AND GEM 2M TEMPS...WHICH NOW PUTS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS.
THU NIGHT: INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. RISING TEMPS APPEAR
PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A NON- TRADITIONAL TEMP CURVE IS IN THE
FCST.
FRI: MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. BY
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. THAT
COMPLICATES TEMPS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 49-59F...WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST.
SAT: DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS...TEMPS COULD BE WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATING. BELIEVE YOU CAN PROBABLY SAFELY ADD ANOTHER 5F TO THE
FCST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN 50-60F...WARMEST SW FROM BEAVER CITY TO
PLAINVILLE KS.
SUN: FAIR AND DRY. WE FINISH UP ANOTHER 3-DAY STRETCH OF MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH.
MON-TUE: COLDER THEN TEMPS PLUNGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
PATTERN: ENSEMBLES FROM MULTIPLE CENTERS PERSIST IN INDICATING A
MAJOR SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVES COME FEB. THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE IS
FCST TO BREAK DOWN WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PACIFIC.
THIS TELECONNECTS TO A WRN USA TROF. THE BIAS CORRECTED GEFS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PNA PATTERN TURNING NEGATIVE. THIS
SUGGESTS WE MAY NOT ESCAPE THIS WINTER WITHOUT SUFFERING THE BRUNT
OF A BLIZZARD OR TWO. OVERALL DEC-JAN HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL.
THAT COULD CHANGE.
ARCTIC COLD POURING INTO A WRN USA TROF MEANS THAT LONGER
STRETCHES OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPS BECOME MORE LIKELY. WE ARE ALSO
SEEING SIGNS OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBILITIES AROUND FEB
2-3...WHICH WOULD DELIVER SERIOUS WINTER COLD AND "POSSIBLY" SNOW.
ALL THIS SAID...ARE THE ENSEMBLES CORRECT? THE POOL OF ANOMALOUSLY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS REMAINS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. HARD TO IGNORE
THE EFFECTS GIVEN THAT POOL HAS SUPPORTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 13 MONTHS! WE DID SEE A PATTERN
CHANGE FROM DEC93-JAN94 TO FEB DESPITE A NE PACIFIC WARM POOL.
SO IT CAN HAPPEN. IF IT DOES...BELIEVE WE HAVE SOME NASTY PERIODS
OF WINTER STILL IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE
TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS UNTIL 15Z
OR 16Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE SNOW THAT IS
ENTERING THE AREA AND WITH HOW MUCH WILL FALL. STARTING TO HAVE
CONCERNS THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO SEE AS MUCH AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY...THE FIRST WAVE IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AIR MASS.
VISIBILITIES ARE ONLY AROUND 4SM RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD NOT CHANGE
MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. THAT WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FIRST BAND. THE SECOND WAVE IS THE MORE
POTENT WAVE AND WILL COME THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT WHAT IS COMING OUR
WAY...MANY OF THE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
2SM RANGE AND IS ONLY OVER A NARROW SWATH. THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE NOT BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS BUT AT LEAST MIRROR WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING. WHILE THE LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
LOOKS DECENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT...WOULD REALLY PREFER TO
SEE A TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TO GET
INTO THE HEAVIER SNOWS. WHILE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER
SIDE...QPF STILL LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT AROUND 0.05". AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THAT 3" LOOKS LIKE A HIGH MARK TO HIT FROM THIS
SNOW WITH 2" OR LESS LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING AIM ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
SLIDING THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. GOOD QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE. THERMODYNAMICS ARE ALSO GOOD...WITH 925-700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K SFCS LEADING THE CHARGE -
MAXED IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. SATURATION ISN/T THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT DEEP ENOUGH PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. MOST FAVORABLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
WITH THIS AMPLE FORCING AND SUFFICIENT SATURATION...THE AREA CAN
EXPECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AS FOR HOW MUCH...LATEST
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS VIA THE NAM AND GFS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC ZONE GROWTH REGION FROM THE SFC TO NEARLY 8 KFT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK LIFT DURING
THIS TIME. BIG...FLUFFY FLAKES ARE LIKELY...AND RAPID ACCUMULATIONS
COULD OCCUR. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY THOUGH...AND QPF IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THIS WILL HOLD DOWN THE AMOUNTS. SNOW RATIOS OF
20/30 TO 1 STILL LOOK GOOD...RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 INCHES TOTALS.
WINDS ARE GOING TO PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IOWA...AND AREA RIDGE-TOPS. NOT SURE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SO COVER THESE IMPACTS...BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SWEEPS IN WITH THE TROUGH AND PASSING SFC
COLD FRONT WED MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
FROM THE MORNING READINGS. CLOUDS COULD LINGER FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EAST FOR A BETTER PART OF THE WED NIGHT...INHIBITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT LOWS SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT FROM THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COUPLE THIS WITH THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 25
TO 35 BELOW OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH THU MORNING. ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED - OR PERHAPS WINTER WEATHER ADV IF BLOWING
SNOW IS AN ISSUE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
GOOD CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS - GFS/ECMWF/GEM - WITH
DROPPING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION. BOTH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...AND COULD SEE TWO SEPARATE BANDS SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. SATURATION ISN/T THAT GREAT...AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY...WHICH WILL KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN. HARD TO QUANTIFY AT THIS
TIME...BUT LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR LESS AT THIS MOMENT.
WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES FOR FRIDAY...AND
HIGHS COULD VENTURE BACK TO THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE RETURN WOULD
BE VERY BRIEF AS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THE STRONGER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. 850 MB TEMPS
WOULD DROP TO -24 C ON SAT VIA THE GFS. HIGHS ON SAT COULD OCCUR IN
THE EARLY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY/FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY.
MIGHT AS WELL JUMP ON THE WAVE TRAIN...AS YOUR TICKET HAS ALREADY
BEEN PUNCHED. WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD SLIP ACROSS THE REGION SAT
NIGHT/SUN. TIMING AND POSITIONING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/IF IT WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. WHEREVER IT TRACKS...SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY MVFR WITH VISIBILITY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE WHILE CEILINGS RANGE FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR. THE
MAIN BAND OF IFR IS NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND IS EXPECTED TO
SWING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT LSE HAS A BETTER
CHANCE OF GETTING IFR THAN RST DOES...THOUGH IT COULD GO EAST OF
THE SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK WITH
WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 30KTS.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW AT RST...THOUGH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT HOW LOW
CONDITIONS WILL GET. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THOUGH THE BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
638 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND
CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL
SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS
THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON
TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A
BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT.
GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST
A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR
SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER
IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE
COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN
OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH
THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE
FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER
QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS.
ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE
AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE
PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF
WAA/CAA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE
TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ072-073-082-083.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
558 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND
CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL
SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS
THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON
TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A
BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT.
GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST
A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR
SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER
IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE
COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN
OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH
THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE
FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER
QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS.
ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE
AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE
PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF
WAA/CAA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE
TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ072-073-082-083.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
517 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND
CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL
SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS
THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON
TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A
BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT.
GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST
A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR
SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER
IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE
COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN
OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH
THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE
FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER
QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS.
ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE
AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE
PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF
WAA/CAA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE
TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS UNTIL 15Z
OR 16Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ072-073-082-083.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1003 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY
WHILE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM WED...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS TAIL OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGS THROUGH. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE LINGERING SHOWERS. AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THIS LATE MORNING...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW 10F IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WIND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE
DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL ALLOW WIND
CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WINDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN
BELOW THIS CRITERIA. SO WILL ALSO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO
EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TEENS
INLAND TO LOW 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY REINFORCEMENT OF THE DEEP EASTERN US TROF LEADING
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. MINIMAL
PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS GIVEN
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE W/NW DOMINATED FLOW ALOFT.
LOW LVL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT BUT STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS UPR 30S N TO LOWER 40S S.
A DRY COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD IN
THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRI MORNING. VERY COLD AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION FRI AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH MAINLY UPPER
20S.
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON
AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 45-50F DURING THE WEEKEND. SAT LOOKS
RATHER WINDY AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS
ESPCLY NEAR THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S/LOW
50S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONT. HIGHS NEXT
TUESDAY FALL BACK AGAIN INTO THE 30S AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SPREADS S INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM WED...AREA OF STCU ADVECTING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AS WELL AS BRINGING
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
DRY ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1002 AM WED...NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE HAVE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL SEE A SMALL
LOOSENING OF GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND IN THE TEENS IN SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET IN NORTHERN WATERS AND AROUND 6 FEET IN SOUTHERN
WATERS. WILL KEEP SCA GOING WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND WILL
GO FROM GALE TO SCA IN THOSE AREAS.
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 5-15 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE INLET.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...GENERALLY ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS OCCASIONAL REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGES LEAD
TO INCREASING WINDS/SEAS. BRIEF BREAK IN HIGHER WINDS/SEAS FIRST
PART OF THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WNW WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN START TO INCREASE LATE THU AS FRONT CROSSES...THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS LATER THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THESE NW
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 FT OVER THE OUTER NRN AND
CNTRL WTRS EARLY FRI. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATER FRI AND FRI
EVENING AS HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. W/SW WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER FRI NIGHT AND ESPCLY SAT AS DEEP LOW
CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE STRONG SW
WINDS SAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 11 FEET OVER THE OUTER CNTRL AND
SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 6 FT ALL WTRS SUN AS WINDS
DIMINISH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 22ND:
TEMP YEAR
CAPE HATTERAS 26 1970
MANTEO 25 1970
OCRACOKE 30 1970
NEW BERN 30 1970
WILLIAMSTON 31 1994
KINSTON 19 1985
GREENVILLE 27 1970
BAYBORO 29 1970
MOREHEAD CITY 31 1970
WASHINGTON 32 2011
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/CGG
CLIMATE...CQD/SEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
658 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BLIZZARD HITTING IN FULL FORCE OVER THE AREA AS ARCTIC FRONT IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD WATERTOWN SD AND WILLMAR MN. FACEBOOK POSTS AND
OTHER REPORTS INDICATE WIDESPREAD ZERO VSBY IN MOST OF THE AREA
AND EVEN IN TOWN/CITIES VSBYS ONE QUARTER MILE. STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH PAST FEW HOURS. 925 MB WINDS ON RAP STILL HAVE
40 KTS IN THE NRN-CNTRL RRV THRU 15Z AND INTO THE SRN VALLEY INTO
18Z. SO EXPECT SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF THESE CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
WHOA WHAT A NIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT AND WIND PUSH NOW MOVING SOUTH
THRU THE CENTRAL RRV HAVING PASSED GFK-RDR-CKN SINCE 3 AM. VSBYS
QUICKLY GO TO ZERO TO 100 FT IN OPEN COUNTRY AS WINDS GUST TO
30-35 KTS. SIMILAR WINDS UPSTREAM TO WINNIPEG CURRENTLY AND WENT
AHD AND ISSUED BLIZZARD WARNING JUST PRIOR TO 3 AM BASED ON
INITIAL REPORTS IN PEMBINA-CAVALIER COUNTIES. 925 MB SHOW 40KTS TO
MIX DOWN AND HAVE HAD 41 KTS IN WALHALLA. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AND
BEST COLD ADVECTION NOW THRU 15Z...THEN THINGS START TO LEVEL OFF
18Z-21Z PERIOD. WENT AHD WITH BLIZZARD WARNING THRU 21Z FOR
NOW...AS DO THNK IT WILL GET A LOT BETTER AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTN. ABR/MPX GOING BLIZZARD WARNINGS AS WELL IN THEIR WIND PRONE
AREAS TODAY. DID GO WINTER WX ADV IN THE FAR EAST AS WIND GUSTS
LIKELY TO 30 KTS THERE TOO AND NEW 2 INCHES OF FLUFF FELL IN
BEMIDJI AREA YESTERDAY SO WOULD THINK SOME LOCAL BLOWING/DRIFTING
LIKELY.
IT WAS STRESSED IN ALL PRODUCTS THIS IS A GROUND BLIZZARD OUT OF
TOWN BLIZZARD AND NOT IN CITY/TOWNS WHERE VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT
TIMES BUT MUCH HIGHER.
THINGS TRANSITION TO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES LATE THIS AFTN INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SPOTS AROUND -40F OR SO BUT EVERYONE KEPT
ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ACTUALLY MOST OF THE -40F AND COLDER TEMPS
OCCUR IN THE AFTN IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING PERIOD IN NE ND/NW MN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS QUICKLY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A COLD NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FARTHER
WEST THIS TIME AND THUS -20S A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN CNTRL/ERN ND
THAN PREVIOUS COOL DOWNS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP THU NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTH IN THE ENDLESS CLIPPER PARADE WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING
SOUTH LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY WITH 30-35
IN MUCH OF THE RRV/ERN ND AS IN THE PAST THE WEST WINDS HAVE
OVERPERFORMED TEMP WISE. THEN THE ARCTIC SURGE WILL OCCUR AGAIN
FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR WINDS TO 30-40 KTS AND
LIKELY ANOTHER BLOWING SNOW EVENT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS POLAR VORTEX SETTLES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. BEST SNOW
CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE SATURDAY/SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
COUPLE WITH 100+ KT 300 HPA JET. MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS
REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
STRONG COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ON SUNDAY USHERING IN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. AS A RESULT...HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
ZERO BY MONDAY. MINIMAL WARMING ON TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS STILL
TOPPING OUT RIGHT AROUND THE ZERO MARK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
TAFS ARE PRETTY MUCH A NIGHTMARE AS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON CHANGING
VSBY AND SUSPENDED SNOW CAUSING IFR OR MVFR CIGS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE
AS SKIES CLEAR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-
007-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ005-
006-008-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
305 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STRATUS BELOW AROUND 5000
FT MSL IS BEING OVERRIDDEN BY PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS SW
IDAHO...WHICH IS LIMITING SOLAR COMPONENT FAVORABLE FOR ERODING
THE PESKY BLEAK GRAY LAYER OVER SW IDAHO. NORTH TO EAST WINDS
ALOFT AND A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRATUS...PROBABLY FROM BOISE TO PAYETTE
TO BAKER CITY...FOR A FEW HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
KEEP UPSLOPE STRATUS GOING ACROSS THE NW MAGIC VALLEY AS THE SOUTH
FRINGE OF THE STRATUS ERODES SOUTH OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OPTOMISTIC ON GETTING RID OF
THE STRATUS ABOVE 2500-3000 FT MSL AND INVERSION REFORMS ANYWAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SO OTHER THAN MINOR SLOSHING AROUND WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS THE STRATUS LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BELOW 3500-5000
FT MSL IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES
TO THE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BLOCKING
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
DEEP ARCTIC LOWS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. CONTINUED FOG AND STRATUS IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND MAGIC VALLEYS AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ABOVE 5K FEET
MSL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN NEXT
WEEK AFTER TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO OUR AREA
AND BETTER MIXING POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FZFG AT
KBOI KONO KTWF KJER KBKE. STRATUS TOPS AT 5K FEET MSL IN TREASURE
AND MAGIC VALLEY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AT
KMYL KBNO. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 15-
25KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT AT 0Z THU.
&&
.AIR STAGNATION...STAGNANT PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA/WH
AVIATION.....KA
AIR STAGNATION...VM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LINCOLN IL
218 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 211 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
WILL BE EXTENDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
STRONG COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE OF THE
INCOMING ARCTIC AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL LEAD TO
WIND CHILLS BELOW -15F THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN WAY OF RECOVERY TOMORROW AS LOWEST
HEIGHTS ARE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH THE 1049 MB HIGH MOVING SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST,
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AND NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW -10F FOR
WIND CHILL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET FOR A WHILE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN THE IJX AREA SOUTHEAST INTO LWV, IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL
LIKELY FALL BACK INTO CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. PLAN ON
EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
MAIN RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF UNDER CLEAR SKIES. UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS, SOME AREAS, PARTICULAR ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS,
MAY BE COLDER FRIDAY MORNING THAN TOMORROW MORNING. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT, TEMPS MAY START TO
RISE IN THE WEST, BUT THE INCREASE IN WIND WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND CHILL. BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE IN FULL SWING.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT,
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THERMAL EVOLUTION, BUT EVEN TIMING OF
FAST-MOVING CLIPPERS IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN REASONABLE SYNC.
WARMING WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
RESPONDING TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED
TO CLIMB 10C OR SO DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE
BULK OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
NEXT MAJOR WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF IT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. LATEST MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE SUGGESTS THE TRACK
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD CUTOFF BETWEEN IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL
NEAR THE LOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
VERY COLD AIR WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS FALLING
CLOSE TO READINGS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR CURRENT COLD BLAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BARKER
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
COLD FRONT STARTING TO CROSS KPIA AT MIDDAY AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
ALL CENTRAL ILLINOIS TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. NARROW CLEAR SLOT
WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM IOWA WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME, ALTHOUGH MANY
UPSTREAM OBS IN CENTRAL IOWA HAVE CEILINGS BACK UP TO AROUND 4000
FEET OR SO. LARGER AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO
MINNESOTA. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS
THESE CEILINGS AFFECTING CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING, BUT THIS
AREA APPEARS MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE, AND WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW WELL
IT HOLDS TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET.
SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES OCCURRING IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN THE KPIA-KCMI CORRIDOR, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY EVENING,
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1218 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHEN TRYING TO DESCRIBE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...IT IS SIMILAR
TO A CAR STUCK IN NEUTRAL. THE ENGINE STARTS UP...BUT DOESN`T GO
ANYWHERE. MOTHER NATURE CLEARLY HAS DECIDED TO LOCK THE REGION
INTO A COLD PATTERN...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE PROGGED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SO IF YOU ENJOYED THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...GOOD NEWS...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. ALAS WE ARE WITHIN TWO
WEEKS OF SEEING WHAT A SPECIAL GROUNDHOG WILL PREDICT.
THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN RELATIVELY QUIET...HOWEVER THIS WILL MERELY
BE A TEASE AS A CLIPPER CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ARRIVE ACROSS WISC SPREADING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH
LATER THIS MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
DYNAMICS WITH THIS NEXT WAVE HAVE STRENGTHENED MARGINALLY...WITH A
NARROW CHANNEL OF MOISTENING/ASCENDING PARCELS INTO A FAVORABLE DGZ.
THE BEST AREA FOR LIGHT ACCUMUS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DIXON TO KANKAKEE TO FOWLER LINE...WITH GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.0
SNOWFALL. SOUTH OF THIS LINE UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS
POSSIBLE...MEANWHILE A NARROW AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST IL COULD SEE
UP TO 2.0 INCHES OF FRESH POWDERY SNOWFALL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
TEENS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE
LINGERING POTENT THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THAT
TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM WITH WINDS
HAVING BECOME SOUTHERLY. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW TO UPPER
TEENS.
CLIPPER WILL PUSH INTO WESTCENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE...WITH A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
IL AND VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. A
SHARP INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT AS A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...AND
UNFORTUNATELY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO TO ARND 0 NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WELL BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS WEST OF I-355. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 30-35 MPH AND FORECAST TEMPS...WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO ARND -20 TO -25 TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY IN FORECAST TEMPS/WINDS...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY/FORECAST...HIGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WHILE THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...THE EFFECTS WILL
LINGER WITH CLOUDS HOLDING THRU THUR MORNING BEFORE THE STRONG SFC
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO ERODE THE LINGERING MOISTURE
BY THE AFTN HOURS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWFA THUR...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS IN THE FAR WESTERN CWFA
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO THUR. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY THUR...HOWEVER NOT AS
POTENT AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS IT APPEARS WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL RISE ABOVE CRITERIA TO -5 TO -15 DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED UP WITH YET ANOTHER BLUSTERY NIGHT HEADING
INTO FRI.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY THUR EVENING...ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY
WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
STEADILY WARM THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT STARTING ARND -20 DEG C TO ARND
-9 DEG C BY DAYBREAK FRI. WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CHALLENGE FOR
SFC TEMPS...AND CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THUR EVE
BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND AFT MIDNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNS THUR NGT/EARLY FRI...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING WIND CHILL
VALUES BACK TO AT LEAST -20 TO -25 TO POSSIBLY NEARING -30 DEG F BY
MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WIND CHILL WARNING
CRITERIA...SO DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST ANY WIND CHILL WATCH YET.
ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES EAST ACROSS MANITOBA TOWARDS JAMES
BAY FRI...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN IL FRI NGT. PRIOR TO FROPA...WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS COULD SEE A QUICK BUMP INTO THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPR 20S FRI...AND THAT MAY EVEN BE A TAD TOO
CONSERVATIVE. WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A HANDFUL OF
POINTS TAG 30-32 DEGREES...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LATE WEEK WAVE...INDICATING SNOW ACCUMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT RATIOS WILL HOVER IN THE 20:1 TO 25:1...WITH
POSSIBLY 1-3" OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK SAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DIXON IL TO FOWLER IN LINE.
CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THUR NGT...HIGH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG MINIMAL CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN...HOWEVER SOME MINOR RELAXING MAY TAKE PLACE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIODS WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN CANADA.
THROUGH AT LEAST MON...THE WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WILL FLIRT WITH +4
SIGMA. THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LOCKS THE TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS HAVE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR
SUN...AND PRESENTLY IS EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
MARGINALLY WITH THE RECENT CYCLES BEGINNING TO HAVE SOME
CONSISTENCY. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS FAVORABLE ON THE NOSE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH A FLATTENING IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWFA. THIS MAY BE AN EARLY INDICATION THAT AN FGEN BAND
COULD DEVELOP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
ARCTIC AIR RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS YET AGAIN
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT AND STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW SUN...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LIGHT SNOW ENDING WITHIN THE HOUR BUT WITH LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR/IFR VIS
POSSIBLE.
* A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE INCREASING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING.
* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VIS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
EXIT WITHIN THE HOUR...BUT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND FRONT. THIS SNOW IS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH DONT EXPECT THE BETTER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR
MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOWEST VISIBILITY IN THIS SNOW COULD
STILL DROP TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES...BUT WITH THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 MILES UNTIL THIS SNOW EXITS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EVENING...AS A BULK OF THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. DID CLEAR OUT SKIES OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS CLOUD SHIELD APPEARS TO BE NARROW IN COVERAGE PER
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ORIENTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WHILE
INCREASING WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF AROUND 30KT STILL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SNOW TRENDS WITHIN THE HOUR...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE WITH SNOW TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW
LIKELY. A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH BLOWING
SNOW...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...CHANCE SNOW. IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
339 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SEVERAL HEADLINE WORTHY WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE LAKE.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE LAKE...A STRONG PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL SETUP SOME GALE FORCE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
THEREFORE I UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND MOVED IT UP A
FEW HOURS. I ALSO INCLUDED MY INDIANA NEAR SHORES IN THIS
WARNING...AS IT APPEARS A NARROW CHANNEL OF STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40
KT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LAND-LAKE CONVERGENCE
LAKE EFFECT BAND. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF GALES ALONG MY
ILLINOIS NEAR SHORES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT HERE...I FELT BETTER GOING WITH A 30 KT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND MENTIONING SOME 35 KT GALE FORCE GUSTS. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL ABATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG GALES WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS EVENT AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HIGH END
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF 45 KT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY ON BOTH THE NORTH
AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL EVEN OCCUR WITH THIS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. I HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. A
GALE WATCH OR STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT.
IF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY GALES UP TO 40 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON
THURSDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9 PM
WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...3 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1145 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1000 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014
Cold front approaching the western CWA late this morning, about to
cross the Mississippi River shortly. Areas of light snow and
flurries have been moving through mainly the northern half of the
forecast area, periodically reducing visibilities to around 4
miles, although some heavier snow showers going through the Quad
Cities have brought visibilities down to around 2 miles. Have
increased PoP`s across mainly the northern CWA. The grids and
zones are a bit difficult to reconcile in this situation, as there
will likely be a widespread area of flurries, but only about a
30-40% chance that it would accumulate. Anything measurable would
likely be over the next few hours as the front passes.
A narrow clear slot, about 30-50 miles wide, will be moving into
the northwest CWA shortly, but a larger area of clouds behind the
front will keep skies mostly cloudy overall through the day.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014
Cold front starting to cross KPIA at midday and should be through
all central Illinois TAF sites by mid afternoon. Narrow clear slot
will advance through the area, but additional clouds moving in
from Iowa will produce MVFR ceilings for a time, although many
upstream obs in central Iowa have ceilings back up to around 4000
feet or so. Larger area of MVFR ceilings from northern Iowa into
Minnesota. Will need to watch this as the RAP model suggests
these ceilings affecting central Illinois this evening, but this
area appears more diurnal in nature, and will wait to see how well
it holds together after sunset.
Some lower visibilities occurring in scattered snow showers,
mainly in the KPIA-KCMI corridor, and this will continue for a few
more hours.
Northwest winds will ramp up behind the front and by evening,
gusts of 20-30 knots are expected. This will likely persist into
Thursday morning.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014
Will issue a wind chill advisory across central and southeast IL
from 9 pm this evening through noon on Thursday for wind chills
between 15 and 25 below zero. Northern areas will come close to
wind chill warning criteria of 25 below zero or colder late
tonight into mid morning Thursday. A wind chill advisory may be
needed again Thursday night into mid morning Friday.
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night
A long wave upper level trof will remain over the eastern states
through next week with temps staying below normal, though some
brief modification this weekend. Series of clipper systems/
northern stream short waves will continue to dive SE into the
region every few days bring periodic chances of light snow. 1st
one to mainly pass to our NE today and then next one arriving
Friday night and another one on Sunday with better chance of light
snow accumulations Friday night and Sunday.
504 dm 500 mb low between Hudson Bay and Lake Superior will send
a northern stream short wave/clipper SE into the great lakes
region today. Central IL will be on the SW fringe of this system
and only expect a chance of light snow or flurries today with
light dusting from I-74 NE. Short wave quickly exits SE into the
upper Ohio river valley while 1048 mb arctic high pressure settles
into the central Plains Thu and into AR/western TN by dawn Friday.
Arctic cold front passes SE through central IL this afternoon with
brisk NW winds behind the front driving down wind chills. Arctic
air mass in place through Friday morning to ensure wind chills of
15 to 25 below zero after 9 pm this evening, though SE counties
will likely not reach the criteria until during overnight and
continue Thu morning. Areas from I-74 north could see wind chills
reach 25 below zero or colder for a few hours late tonight into
mid morning Thu and may need to upgrade to a wind chill warning.
Another very cold night expected Thursday night with lows zero to
5 below zero while wind chills back down to 15 to 23 below zero
Thu night into mid morning Friday. Increased SW winds Friday with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely and helping to raise temps into the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with SW areas 30-32F by
Jacksonville and west. Another strong clipper system dives into
the Great Lakes region Friday night and appears to bring better
chances of light snow accumulations to central IL with up to 1
inch possible and possibly a bit more NE of I-74. Will be windy
with some blowing of this snow Friday night into Saturday morning
as light snow diminishes then. Highs Sat range from mid 20s north
of Peoria to 30-35F from I-72 south.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday
Yet another clipper system to bring a chance of light snow to the
IL river valley overnight Sat night and across the area on Sunday
as it moves into the great lakes region. Could be light snow
accumulations again near 1 inch or less especially from I-74 NE.
Highs Sunday in the upper 20s NE and 30-35F SW areas. Then another
surge of arctic air to arrive early next work week and wind chills
could reach 15 to 20 below zero Monday night. The 8-14 day outlook
through Feb 4 continues 50-65% chance of below normal temperatures
and 40% chance of above normal precipitation which would likely
fall as more snow.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to Noon CST Thursday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
325 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS SMALLER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL
INDIANA...WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE DEVELOPING
IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTH HALF OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE
POPS SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT LIKELY POPS EARLY
THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WELL ABOVE MOS
POPS BUT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS FEEL THIS IS
PRUDENT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MOST
FORCING EXITS.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING THERE. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FLOWS
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET MOS/RAW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES.
THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...STARTING AT 100 AM NORTH AND 400 AM SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
A LOT TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING
TEMPERATURES...SNOWFALL...AND WINDS.
KEPT LOW POPS NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND PROVIDES DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS PLUS SOME UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH A FRONT WILL
RESULT IN LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY MORNING AND DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...AS CORE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. THIS
IS CLOSE TO MET MOS/MODEL BLEND. SAME AIRMASS KEEP LOWS BELOW ZERO
THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS. READINGS REBOUND
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE MANY AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH HALF. WINDS WILL LESSEN
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL BE MET ONCE AGAIN.
GIVEN THE ABOVE...EVEN THOUGH WIND CHILL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET FOR
A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DECIDED JUST TO KEEP IT SIMPLE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LET THE ADVISORY
EXPIRE THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE ANOTHER
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN THE SAME.
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THIS COULD
CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES WITH ANY SNOW THAT FALLS. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
FASCINATING TO WATCH MODEL LOOPS AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LOWS/ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE AREA
BETWEEN JAMES BAY/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
ABOUT 3000 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER OUR AREA.
THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/ASSOCIATED LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. THIS MAKES
SOME SENSE FOR US WITH THE SNOW COVER WE HAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO BE A LITTLE BIT
WARMER AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR
MASS ENDS THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGIONAL BLEND OF THE
MODELS DURING THE PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT ROTATES ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING MAKING IT
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
CHANGES MADE TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR
OCCURRING IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE
STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS
TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL
CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...DWM
AVIATION...DWM/NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS SMALLER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL
INDIANA...WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE DEVELOPING
IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTH HALF OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE
POPS SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT LIKELY POPS EARLY
THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WELL ABOVE MOS
POPS BUT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS FEEL THIS IS
PRUDENT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MOST
FORCING EXITS.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING THERE. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FLOWS
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET MOS/RAW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES.
THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...STARTING AT 100 AM NORTH AND 400 AM SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
A LOT TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING
TEMPERATURES...SNOWFALL...AND WINDS.
KEPT LOW POPS NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND PROVIDES DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS PLUS SOME UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH A FRONT WILL
RESULT IN LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY MORNING AND DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...AS CORE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. THIS
IS CLOSE TO MET MOS/MODEL BLEND. SAME AIRMASS KEEP LOWS BELOW ZERO
THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS. READINGS REBOUND
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE MANY AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH HALF. WINDS WILL LESSEN
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL BE MET ONCE AGAIN.
GIVEN THE ABOVE...EVEN THOUGH WIND CHILL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET FOR
A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DECIDED JUST TO KEEP IT SIMPLE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LET THE ADVISORY
EXPIRE THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE ANOTHER
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN THE SAME.
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THIS COULD
CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES WITH ANY SNOW THAT FALLS. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
FASCINATING TO WATCH MODEL LOOPS AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LOWS/ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE AREA
BETWEEN JAMES BAY/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
ABOUT 3000 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER OUR AREA.
THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/ASSOCIATED LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. THIS MAKES
SOME SENSE FOR US WITH THE SNOW COVER WE HAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO BE A LITTLE BIT
WARMER AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR
MASS ENDS THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGIONAL BLEND OF THE
MODELS DURING THE PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT ROTATES ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING MAKING IT
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 22/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE
STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS
TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL
CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...DWM
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
EASTERN CANADA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION PRODUCING
SEVERAL CHANCES OF SNOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 939 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD
REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SO UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. THUS MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
LATEST MODEL DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SNOW ARRIVING MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES COULD
REACH WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
THIS WELL SO MADE NO CHANGES TO SNOW CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. BUT THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE A DRY OUTLIER WITH THIS EVENINGS SYSTEM WHILE THE NAM
HAS TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD BE A HALF INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 18 BELOW
LATE TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS IN. THESE WIND CHILLS WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL EVEN BE COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING ALL AREAS BY THEN.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES YET...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTH THURSDAY
AS THE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE AREAS.
MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WETTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT
NOW APPEARS THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.
IN MOST CASES FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER FOR THURSDAY AND GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS AND
STRONG WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A
MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES THOSE PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
FASCINATING TO WATCH MODEL LOOPS AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LOWS/ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE AREA
BETWEEN JAMES BAY/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
ABOUT 3000 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER OUR AREA.
THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/ASSOCIATED LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. THIS MAKES
SOME SENSE FOR US WITH THE SNOW COVER WE HAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO BE A LITTLE BIT
WARMER AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR
MASS ENDS THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGIONAL BLEND OF THE
MODELS DURING THE PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT ROTATES ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING MAKING IT
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 22/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE
STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS
TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL
CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...DWM
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
EASTERN CANADA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION PRODUCING
SEVERAL CHANCES OF SNOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 939 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD
REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SO UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. THUS MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
LATEST MODEL DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SNOW ARRIVING MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES COULD
REACH WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
THIS WELL SO MADE NO CHANGES TO SNOW CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. BUT THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE A DRY OUTLIER WITH THIS EVENINGS SYSTEM WHILE THE NAM
HAS TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD BE A HALF INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 18 BELOW
LATE TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS IN. THESE WIND CHILLS WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL EVEN BE COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING ALL AREAS BY THEN.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES YET...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTH THURSDAY
AS THE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE AREAS.
MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WETTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT
NOW APPEARS THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.
IN MOST CASES FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER FOR THURSDAY AND GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS AND
STRONG WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A
MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES THOSE PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND A MEAN UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EACH WAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE TAIL END OF THE FIRST WAVE...RESULTING
IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND WAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN FROM MANITOBA
AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ON
MONDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
WHEN CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST BECOMES LOW. AT THIS TIME...LATEST
INITIALIZATION IS NOT PULLING IN ANY PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT GFS
AND EURO ARE BOTH HINTING AT YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSING ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT INSERT POPS SINCE THIS IS
DAY 7...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER INITIALIZATIONS START
INTRODUCING PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ON BACK SIDE
OF MEAN UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 22/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014
STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE
STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS
TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL
CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...DWM
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
106 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST WED JAN 22 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A 505DM CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG PV HEIGHT ANOMALY IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGRESSING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING SOUTH
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
REGARDING PRECIP...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS/SATELLITE IN LINE WITH INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST CHANCES 03-09Z PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. I DID BUMP POPS UP A LITTLE TO CATEGORICAL (80)
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/UPSLOPE
WIND/CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED. MODELS STILL FAVORING GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND GENERALLY ONE HALF IN OR LESS THE FURTHER EAST IN THE
CWA. MODELS HAVE SPED UP EXIT OF PRECIP IN THE NORTH WITH VERY
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTH WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ARCTIC AIR MASS ADVECTS SOUTH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OF -15F OR LESS ARE ADVERTISED TO ADVECT INTO THE
NORTHEAST...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. IN FACT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS MY CURRENT FORECAST LOW OF -7F COULD BE OPTIMISTIC FOR
MCCOOK. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
REGARDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE
WILL SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 F RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DESPITE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. I
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WC ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA AND THE FIRST TWO
TIER OF OUR NW KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THESE
CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE CWA COULD STILL END UP BEING CLOSE
DEPENDING ON WIND/SKY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDDAY (POSSIBLY
EARLIER)...WITH A DRY/COLD DAY EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS 20-25F WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS SLOW TO PULL EAST. AT LEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT (10 MPH OR LESS) WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND BRIEF
COOL DOWNS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND ONE FRONT...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HOWEVER...COULD NOT REACH A CONSENSUS FOR A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ATTM. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME SO NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THIS PERIOD WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN WINDS INCREASE TO BREEZY/WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT RH VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR
NOW. MONDAY WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
COLD SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST WED JAN 22 2014
COLD FRONT STILL NORTH OF KMCK TERMINAL IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER 2500-4000FT STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED FURTHER
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND CANT RULE OUT BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK. AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AROUND
25KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. PRECIP FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH KMCK
LIKELY REMAINING SNOW FREE. MVFR CIG/VIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AT
KGLD WITH LIGHT SNOW. WHILE SREF DOES HINT AT IFR AT KGLD...THIS
WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOW BAND IN EASTERN
COLORADO...AND WOULD BE A TEMPORARY CONDITION OTHERWISE. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH BY
12Z...AND HAVE TAFS REFLECTING THIS TREND.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
320 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A DEEP
TROUGH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAINTAIN FRIGID WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
LOW PRES IS CONTINUING ITS TREK ACROSS THE NW ATLC AND IS FCST TO
PASS WELL S AND E OF NOVA SCOTIA. A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
STILL AFFECTING MAINLY THE COAST AND EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF
WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND RUC HAD THIS
SYSTEM HANDLED WELL W/PUSHING THE SNOW INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE
MARITIMES BY 00Z W/LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE,
THE DECISION HERE WAS TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST.
THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND WIND CHILLS. THE 12Z UA SHOWED COLD AIR SITTING BACK
IN QUEBEC READY TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. THINKING IS ONCE THE LOW
EXITS TO THE E, THAT COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT W/SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-15 MPH RIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THIS CLEARING IS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY W/CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO HIT 10 TO 20 BELOW AND THIS COUPLED W/THE
WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SOME DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
READINGS. NORTHWEST AND WESTERN MAINE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS REACH
WARNING CRITERIA(AOB -34F) BY 3-4 AM THURSDAY. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE
SOME CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. IF THIS DOES TAKE HOLD,
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP SOME, ALLOWING FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS TO STAY ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS
WHETHER AN UPGRADE TO A WIND CHILL WARNING IS NEEDED. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS SET UP FOR CENTRAL AND THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
INCLUDING BANGOR TO CALAIS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS WIND CHILLS COULD
HIT 20 BELOW W/TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 5 BELOW.
FOR THURSDAY, AN UPPER TROF IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE AT 700MBS IS SHOWN ESPECIALLY BY THE
GFS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK LIFT.
THE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG AND DECIDED TO STAY BELOW
15% FOR PRECIP CHANCES. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP ARCTIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BITTER COLD
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A FAST MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A NEW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PRESS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PULL STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW. NORMALLY WHEN A LOW LIFTS TO OUR
WEST BRINGING A STRONG SOUTH WIND, TEMPERATURES BECOME WARM ENOUGH
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. HOWEVER, THE ARCTIC AIR IS SO DEEP THAT
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL BUT
COASTAL LOCATIONS SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST IN EASTERN SPOTS WHERE A WEAK
SECONDARY REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST MAY FORM
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME ADDED SUPPORT TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. A FRESH SURGE OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY WITH
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY WILL QUICKLY SWING EAST
NORTHEAST APPROACHING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEW GFS IS NOW COMING IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THIS SMALL LOW. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR, SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE FAVORED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BITTER COLD AND
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO THURSDAY. THE CAVEAT TO THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH AS KFVE AND KCAR AS
SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY W/THE NW FLOW. ATTM, DID NOT GO W/MVFR CIGS IN THE
NORTHERN TAFS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN IFR ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE IFR THROUGHOUT THE AREA IN
LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE GALE
WARNING OUT THROUGH 11 PM AS WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. 44027 ALREADY CLOSING IN ON 40 KT GUSTS PER THE 2 PM
OB. WAVE HEIGHTS ALSO NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THE LATEST
TRENDS SHOWED HIGHER SEAS THAN WHAT WAS BEING FCST. THE SWAN
GUIDANCE CAUGHT ON TO THE HIGHER SEAS OF 7-8 FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER ON AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY. THE GALE WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE
TRANSITIONED TO A SCA BY THE LATE EVENING FCST CYCLE.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR STRONG SOUTH
WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. A GALE MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. AN
SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003-004-
010.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1250 PM UPDATE...NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS READINGS ARE
STILL RUNNING BELOW 0F. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION,
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. THEREFORE,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WILL BE LUCKY TO
CLIP 0F WHILE IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION, STAYED W/THE
SINGLE NUMBERS ATTM.
ON THE PRECIP END, SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES AND SNOWFALL/QPF
AMOUNTS PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE 15Z RUC WAS DOING WELL
W/SHOWING THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING OVER EXTREME EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SOME REPORTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN WASHINGTON
COUNTY, OTHERWISE, A DUSTING. A NEW FCST PACKAGE WAS SHIPPED OUT
TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS
TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING;
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE. THE WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN
DOWNEAST MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE 0 TO 10 ABOVE WITH
THE IMMEDIATE COAST JUST A BIT WARMER.
FOR TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING, SO THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE COLD AND DRY UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUITE AS MUCH
AS THEY HAVE EARLY THIS MORNING, SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CONTD VERY COLD XPCTD THU THRU FRI AS WEAK S/WVS ALF MOVG W TO E
ACROSS THE REGION BRING OCNL CLDNSS AND PERHAPS FLURRIES/ICE CRYSTALS
SPCLY ACROSS THE NR HLF OF THE FA. AN W TO E ORIENTATED SFC RIDGE
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW VLY DECOUPLING FOR MID TO LATE
THU NGT...BUT THE AMOUNT AND THICKNESS OF LOW CLDNSS WILL MAKE IT
VERY DIFFICULT TO GAMBLE WITH BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE LOWS WEIGHTED
A LITTLE TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE TO HIGHLIGHT SOMEWHAT COLDER OVRNGT
LOWS IN PROTECTED VLYS. OTHERWISE...LEANED MORE TOWARD CONSOLIDATED
GUIDANCE FOR DYTM HI TEMPS FOR THU AND FRI AFTN WHICH HAS SHOWN
SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OVR MOST SINGLE AND OTHER BLENDED GUIDANCE
IN A COLD REGIME SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
AFT A FAIR CONDITIONS FRI EVE...CLDS INCREASE OVRNGT FRI WITH A
CHC OF OVRRNG LGT SNFL SPCLY OVR WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY
ERLY SAT MORN AS A MDTLY STRONG S/WV APCHS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LGT OVRRNG SNFL WILL CONT TO OVRSPRD THE REST OF THE FA SAT MORN
AS A S/WV FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS APCHS AND THEN TAKES A NEGATIVE
TILT SAT NGT AS IT CROSSES THE FA. WE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
ALL OF THE FA SAT AFTN...THEN DECREASE TO CHC SN SHWRS SAT NGT AS
A MID LVL DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE FA...GIVEN THAT THE MAIN SFC
LOW ACTUALLY TRACKS NE THRU ERN QB JUST W OF THE ST LAWRENCE VLY
WITH A WEAK TRIPLE POINT OCCLUSION LOW TRACKING OVR NE ME. WITH
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN ENTRAINING ATLC MOISTURE...EQUIV QPF AND SNFL
LOOK RELATIVELY LGT ATTM...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT LCLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALG THE ERN ME/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER JUST AS DEEPER ATLC
MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ALSO...A MDTLY STRONG
LLVL JET MAY BRING GUSTY S/SW SFC WINDS AND MILD ENOUGH TEMPS ALG
THE DOWNEAST COAST FOR SN TO MIX WITH RN ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
LATER SAT AFTN INTO ERLY SAT EVE BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS LATER
SAT NGT.
AFT A AN INITIAL WEAK FALL IN TEMPS BEHIND A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT
ACROSS THE FA WED LATE EVE...TEMPS WILL SHARPLY FALL BEHIND A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SN SHWRS...SPCLY ACROSS THE N. GIVEN THE PRISTINENESS
OF THE AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL NOT LIKELY RECOVER MUCH DURING THE
DAY SUN...AND IN REALITY MAY A CONTINUE A SLOW FALL THRU THE DAY
UNDER BRISK WRLY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER MSLY FAIR
SKIES SUN EVE...WITH INCREASING HI/MID CLDNSS SPCLY ACROSS THE
SRN HLF OF THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE
REGION. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS ANOTHER S/WV...THIS TM
FROM THE OH VLY RESULTING IN SFC LOW PRES FROM THE MID ATLC STATES
INTO THE GULF OF ME. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO MAY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SN...SPCLY TO THE SE HLF OF THE FA MON INTO MON EVE
WHERE WE WENT WITH LOW LIKELY POPS (AND LESSER CHC POPS FURTHER NW)
BEFORE TAPERING TO SCT SN SHWRS LATE MON NGT. GIVEN THIS TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW...THIS EVENT WOULD BE COLDER THAN THE SAT EVENT WITH
POTENTIALLY HIGHER SN RATIOS PERHAPS RESULTING IN WNTR HDLNS...
FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED VERY COLD...BUT MSLY FAIR CONDITIONS ON TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z IN LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW MOVES TO THE EAST.
SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU INTO FRI...WITH MVFR
CLGS POSSIBLE ATTMS OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AND THU NGT. CONDITIONS
LOWER TO MVFR FRI NGT AND TO IFR SAT IN LOW CLDNSS AND FALLING
SNFL. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE SAT NGT TO MVFR IN REMAINING SN
SHWRS AND TO VFR ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY, LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT INTO THIS EVENING. THE
GALE WARNING THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY SCA CONDITIONS OR LESS THU AND FRI...
WITH GALE FORCE SRLY WINDS POSSIBLE SAT AHEAD OF LOW PRES AND A
COLD FRONT...THEN GALE FORCE WRLY WINDS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON SUN. WENT WITH A BLEND OF 00Z WW3 WITH SWAN NAM/GFS
WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS/
WIND GUSTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ002-
005-006-010.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
003-004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1126 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
INCREASED WIND/GUSTS OVER SWRN CWA IN AREA OF FCST HRRR MAXIMUM
TODAY. ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN SAME GENERAL VICINITY. BIG
QUESTION REMAINS AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
CONSIDERING RECENT INCREASE IN ICE COVERAGE. RECENTLY EXPANDED AREA
OF ICE COVERAGE HAS APPROXIMATE THICKNESS LESS THAN 4 INCHES
ACCORDING TO ENV CAN ICE SERVICE CHART. WITH OPEN AREA ALONG
NSHORE AND INCREASING NW WINDS SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE
OPENINGS AND CREATE ADDITIONAL FISSURES IN EXISTING ICE COVER. IN
THEORY THIS WILL INCREASE PROBABILITY OF LATENT HEAT CONTRIBUTION.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE TO CU FIELD
STRETCHING FROM CTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NRN BAYFIELD
COUNTY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING JUST NORTH
OF THE ARROWHEAD IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH
DAKOTA...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH
WINDS. AS OF 09Z...THIS FRONT WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED
WEST. AHEAD OF IT THERE ARE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
WISCONSIN WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW MOVED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING
IN LIGHT BANDS AND TEMPORARILY LOWERED VISIBILITIES. LITTLE...IF
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
TODAY THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST...DRAGGING
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT A STRONG ISALLOBARIC RISE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...AND BETWEEN THAT AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLOW
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AT TIMES AND FOR CERTAIN AREAS TO NEAR 30
MPH. THIS IS GOING TO TAKE THE FRESH SNOW THAT WE GOT OVERNIGHT AND
REALLY BLOW IT AROUND...AND EXPOSED AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SINCE WE
ONLY GOT AN INCH LAST NIGHT...AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SINCE THE
RECENT FREEZING RAIN EVENT THE IMPRESSIVE SNOW PACK WE HAVE IS NOT
GOING TO ALL BLOW AWAY. IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WE
ALREADY HAVE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE DELAYED START TIME OF ADVISORY TO 00Z
THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WE
MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO A WIND CHILL WARNING
WITH VALUES PUSHING 40 BELOW LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE MENTIONING THIS
CONCERN IN BOTH WSW AND HWO THIS MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHEN WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT...FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AN AMAZING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. THE ONE ISSUE
THAT MAKES THIS EVENT CONDITIONAL IS THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE
SUPERIOR. MONDAY THERE WERE STILL LARGE ICE FREE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE OPEN WATERS AREAS. HOWEVER... MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY A LOT MORE ICE HAS FORMED...AND THE LAKE IS NEARLY 90
PERCENT COMPLETELY ICE COVERED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
SOME OPEN AREAS REMAIN...BUT IT IS A LARGE QUESTION MARK AS TO
WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. SO...WE ARE EITHER GOING TO GET LITTLE
IF ANY SNOW...OR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 6 PLUS INCHES OVER THE SOUTH
SHORE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
THE SOUTH SHORE COUNTIES OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT IN THE PUBLIC
PRODUCT...AS WELL AS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE IF THE SNOW BANDS ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND GO FROM THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AND
THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WILL PROBABLY BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE
NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. I LEANED ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY WEIGHTED TOO
MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY THIS FAR OUT.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND SNOWFALL CHANCES AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION CLOUDY. MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY GET AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING
THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL OFFER A VERY BRIEF WARMUP WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE POLAR
VORTEX DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN REACHES OF CANADA INTO THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION.
THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT DURING THIS
TIME. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST...BUT WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND TIMING.
THE GFS TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND
MOSTLY DRY. THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS THOUGH BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHLAND. ALSO...THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACROSS NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT CONSIDERING THE CURRENT HEAVY
ICE COVER OVER THE LAKE. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE ICE CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LAKE NEEDS ABOUT 80 PERCENT OR MORE ICE
COVER BEFORE THERE IS ANY SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
REGION...PROVIDING DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND BLSN OVER NE MN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND HYR...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BECOMING VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS
TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND BACK TO THE W/SW TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -1 -21 -3 -5 / 30 10 0 60
INL -4 -29 -1 -3 / 20 10 0 50
BRD 0 -22 -1 -5 / 10 10 0 20
HYR 4 -21 -1 -5 / 50 40 0 40
ASX 4 -15 -2 -3 / 80 90 10 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>037.
WI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ001-006-007.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ002>004-008-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1034 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
INCREASED WIND/GUSTS OVER SWRN CWA IN AREA OF FCST HRRR MAXIMUM
TODAY. ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN SAME GENERAL VICINITY. BIG
QUESTION REMAINS AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
CONSIDERING RECENT INCREASE IN ICE COVERAGE. RECENTLY EXPANDED AREA
OF ICE COVERAGE HAS APPROXIMATE THICKNESS LESS THAN 4 INCHES
ACCORDING TO ENV CAN ICE SERVICE CHART. WITH OPEN AREA ALONG
NSHORE AND INCREASING NW WINDS SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE
OPENINGS AND CREATE ADDITIONAL FISSURES IN EXISTING ICE COVER. IN
THEORY THIS WILL INCREASE PROBABILITY OF LATENT HEAT CONTRIBUTION.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE TO CU FIELD
STRETCHING FROM CTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NRN BAYFIELD
COUNTY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING JUST NORTH
OF THE ARROWHEAD IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH
DAKOTA...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH
WINDS. AS OF 09Z...THIS FRONT WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED
WEST. AHEAD OF IT THERE ARE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
WISCONSIN WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW MOVED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING
IN LIGHT BANDS AND TEMPORARILY LOWERED VISIBILITIES. LITTLE...IF
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
TODAY THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST...DRAGGING
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT A STRONG ISALLOBARIC RISE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...AND BETWEEN THAT AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLOW
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AT TIMES AND FOR CERTAIN AREAS TO NEAR 30
MPH. THIS IS GOING TO TAKE THE FRESH SNOW THAT WE GOT OVERNIGHT AND
REALLY BLOW IT AROUND...AND EXPOSED AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SINCE WE
ONLY GOT AN INCH LAST NIGHT...AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SINCE THE
RECENT FREEZING RAIN EVENT THE IMPRESSIVE SNOW PACK WE HAVE IS NOT
GOING TO ALL BLOW AWAY. IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WE
ALREADY HAVE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE DELAYED START TIME OF ADVISORY TO 00Z
THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WE
MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO A WIND CHILL WARNING
WITH VALUES PUSHING 40 BELOW LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE MENTIONING THIS
CONCERN IN BOTH WSW AND HWO THIS MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHEN WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT...FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AN AMAZING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. THE ONE ISSUE
THAT MAKES THIS EVENT CONDITIONAL IS THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE
SUPERIOR. MONDAY THERE WERE STILL LARGE ICE FREE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE OPEN WATERS AREAS. HOWEVER... MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY A LOT MORE ICE HAS FORMED...AND THE LAKE IS NEARLY 90
PERCENT COMPLETELY ICE COVERED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
SOME OPEN AREAS REMAIN...BUT IT IS A LARGE QUESTION MARK AS TO
WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. SO...WE ARE EITHER GOING TO GET LITTLE
IF ANY SNOW...OR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 6 PLUS INCHES OVER THE SOUTH
SHORE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
THE SOUTH SHORE COUNTIES OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT IN THE PUBLIC
PRODUCT...AS WELL AS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE IF THE SNOW BANDS ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND GO FROM THERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AND
THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WILL PROBABLY BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE
NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. I LEANED ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY WEIGHTED TOO
MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY THIS FAR OUT.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND SNOWFALL CHANCES AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION CLOUDY. MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY GET AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING
THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL OFFER A VERY BRIEF WARMUP WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE POLAR
VORTEX DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN REACHES OF CANADA INTO THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION.
THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT DURING THIS
TIME. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST...BUT WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND TIMING.
THE GFS TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND
MOSTLY DRY. THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS THOUGH BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHLAND. ALSO...THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACROSS NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT CONSIDERING THE CURRENT HEAVY
ICE COVER OVER THE LAKE. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE ICE CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LAKE NEEDS ABOUT 80 PERCENT OR MORE ICE
COVER BEFORE THERE IS ANY SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
REGION...PROVIDING DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DUE TO -SN AND BLSN IS EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN. STRONG AND GUSTY NNW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME GRADUAL
CLEARING/SCATTERING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WEAKENING
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -1 -21 -2 -5 / 30 10 0 60
INL -4 -29 0 -3 / 20 10 0 50
BRD 0 -22 -1 -5 / 10 10 0 20
HYR 4 -21 -1 -5 / 50 40 0 40
ASX 4 -15 0 -3 / 90 90 20 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>037.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ038.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SYNOPSIS...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1141 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND
CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL
SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS
THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON
TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A
BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT.
GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST
A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR
SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER
IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE
COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN
OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH
THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE
FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER
QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS.
ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE
AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE
PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF
WAA/CAA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH WINDS. A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH
TODAY...AND WHILE IT IS CURRENTLY STILL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA...WONT BE TOO MUCH LONGER BEFORE IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS FRONT IS USHERING IN GUSTY WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND GUSTS OF 35 TO
40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAPER OFF...BUT ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WONT BE UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING. WONT BE SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...REMAINING
N/NWRLY. SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL...AND CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FLAKES AT THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT CEILINGS VFR AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH...WHICH IS AT TIMES DIPPING IN TO THE UPPER END OF MVFR
CRITERIA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ072-073-082-083.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1207 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY
WHILE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM WED...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS TAIL OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGS THROUGH. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE LINGERING SHOWERS. AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN THIS LATE MORNING...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW 10F IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WIND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE
DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL ALLOW WIND
CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WINDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN
BELOW THIS CRITERIA. SO WILL ALSO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO
EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TEENS
INLAND TO LOW 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY REINFORCEMENT OF THE DEEP EASTERN US TROF LEADING
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. MINIMAL
PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS GIVEN
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE W/NW DOMINATED FLOW ALOFT.
LOW LVL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT BUT STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS UPR 30S N TO LOWER 40S S.
A DRY COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD IN
THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRI MORNING. VERY COLD AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION FRI AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH MAINLY UPPER
20S.
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON
AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 45-50F DURING THE WEEKEND. SAT LOOKS
RATHER WINDY AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS
ESPCLY NEAR THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S/LOW
50S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONT. HIGHS NEXT
TUESDAY FALL BACK AGAIN INTO THE 30S AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SPREADS S INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1206 PM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE HAVE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME CONTINUED SNOW AND LOW CIGS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.
WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AM EXPECTING SKIES
TO CLEAR AREA WIDE BY MID AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IFR IN SOUTHERN TAFS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
DRY ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1002 AM WED...NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE HAVE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL SEE A SMALL
LOOSENING OF GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND IN THE TEENS IN SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET IN NORTHERN WATERS AND AROUND 6 FEET IN SOUTHERN
WATERS. WILL KEEP SCA GOING WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND WILL
GO FROM GALE TO SCA IN THOSE AREAS.
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 5-15 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE INLET.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...GENERALLY ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS OCCASIONAL REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGES LEAD
TO INCREASING WINDS/SEAS. BRIEF BREAK IN HIGHER WINDS/SEAS FIRST
PART OF THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WNW WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN START TO INCREASE LATE THU AS FRONT CROSSES...THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS LATER THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THESE NW
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 FT OVER THE OUTER NRN AND
CNTRL WTRS EARLY FRI. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATER FRI AND FRI
EVENING AS HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. W/SW WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER FRI NIGHT AND ESPCLY SAT AS DEEP LOW
CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE STRONG SW
WINDS SAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 11 FEET OVER THE OUTER CNTRL AND
SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 6 FT ALL WTRS SUN AS WINDS
DIMINISH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 22ND:
TEMP YEAR
CAPE HATTERAS 26 1970
MANTEO 25 1970
OCRACOKE 30 1970
NEW BERN 30 1970
WILLIAMSTON 31 1994
KINSTON 19 1985
GREENVILLE 27 1970
BAYBORO 29 1970
MOREHEAD CITY 31 1970
WASHINGTON 32 2011
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/CGG
CLIMATE...CQD/SEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
443 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH ON THURSDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW
HEAVIER AFTERNOON SQUALLS. ADDITIONAL ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROUNDING
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
POCKETS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND-CHILLS IN A FEW PLACE ARE STILL
IN THE -10F RANGE.
CLOUDS ARE RACING EASTWARD WITH A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT.
A RACE BETWEEN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND IR ABSORBING CLOUDS.
IN WESTERN REGIONS...GUIDANCE IMPLIES SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAP AND 4KM NAM ARE
FASTER WITH SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS
HAVE THE SNOW LATER AND SOME TOWARD THE AM HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SREF/GEFS IMPLY CHANCE SNOW IS HIGHER IN THIS PERIOD IN THE
WESTERN AREA. LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. THESE DATA ALSO A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD AIR AND AN ARCTIC FRONT IN OHIO THURSDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE SOME SNOW AND SHOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VERY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT GOOD SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL IN WESTERN AREAS.
PREVIOUS:
THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER WILL DELIVER WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH...WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS. UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE APPROACHING ADVISORY SNOWFALL THURSDAY STRONG
POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIFTED.
IN ADDITION...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SQUALLS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT NOW LOOKS QUITE HIGH...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
CONTINUED LIFT AS THE UPPER TROF PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION THU
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SNSQ PARAMETER VALUES OF 1 TO 3. 4KM SPC WRF
ALSO DEPICTS SOME 30DBZ+ RADAR SIMULATED ECHOES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA THU AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN LOCAL WHITEOUTS AS A RESULT...FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SPLIT IN THE POLAR
VORTEX PERSISTING FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING
JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN
THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FCST OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE LARGE
QUASI STATIONARY LOW ROTATES OVER THE BAY...AND MOVES EVER SLOWLY
EASTWARD...ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS THAT ONE CLIPPER WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER SUN NITE/MONDAY. BEHIND
EACH CLIPPER...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF
FRIGID WX COULD COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND
EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WEST COAST RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD
PA. WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AN EVER PRESENT ARCTIC AIR MASS
THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A FEW PERIODS OF LOW WIND CHILLS...GENERALLY
OVER THE ELEVATED REGIONS...THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED CONDITIONS IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS IN SOMERSET COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM. MVFR AND LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED ON THU AS
THE CLIPPER PASSES. LOCAL SQUALLS AND VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRFIELDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
421 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH ON THURSDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW
HEAVIER AFTERNOON SQUALLS. ADDITIONAL ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROUNDING
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
POCKETS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND-CHILLS IN A FEW PLACE ARE STILL
IN THE -10F RANGE.
CLOUDS ARE RACING EASTWARD WITH A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT. A
RACE BETWEEN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND IR ABSORBING CLOUDS.
IN WESTERN REGIONS...GUIDANCE IMPLIES SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAP AND 4KM NAM ARE
FASTER WITH SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS
HAVE THE SNOW LATER AND SOME TOWARD THE AM HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SREF/GEFS IMPLY CHANCE SNOW IS HIGHER IN THIS PERIOD IN THE
WESTERN AREA. LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. THESE DATA ALSO A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD AIR AND AN ARCTIC FRONT IN OHIO THURSDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE SOME SNOW AND SHOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VERY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT GOOD SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL IN WESTERN AREAS.
PREVIOUS:
THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER WILL DELIVER WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH...WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS. UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE APPROACHING ADVISORY SNOWFALL THURSDAY STRONG
POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIFTED.
IN ADDITION...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SQUALLS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT NOW LOOKS QUITE HIGH...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
CONTINUED LIFT AS THE UPPER TROF PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION THU
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SNSQ PARAMETER VALUES OF 1 TO 3. 4KM SPC WRF
ALSO DEPICTS SOME 30DBZ+ RADAR SIMULATED ECHOES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA THU AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN LOCAL WHITEOUTS AS A RESULT...FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SPLIT IN THE POLAR
VORTEX PERSISTING FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING
JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN
THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FCST OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE LARGE
QUASI STATIONARY LOW ROTATES OVER THE BAY...AND MOVES EVER SLOWLY
EASTWARD...ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS THAT ONE CLIPPER WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER SUN NITE/MONDAY. BEHIND
EACH CLIPPER...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF
FRIGID WX COULD COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND
EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WEST COAST RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD
PA. WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AN EVER PRESENT ARCTIC AIR MASS
THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A FEW PERIODS OF LOW WIND CHILLS...GENERALLY
OVER THE ELEVATED REGIONS...THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED CONDITIONS IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS IN SOMERSET COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED ON THU AS THE CLIPPER PASSES. LOCAL
SQUALLS AND VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRFIELDS IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER