Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/22/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
323 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...WINDS STILL GUSTY ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER...THOUGH SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING. EARLIER A GUST TO 55 MPH WAS REPORTED AT HOLYOKE AT 155 PM. THERE WAS ALSO SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE AREA. FURTHER WEST...WINDS MUCH WEAKER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADIENT WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z WITH WINDS DECREASING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BEHIND EXITING UPPER TROUGH. LATEST RAP SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KTS AT MOUNTAIN TOP. WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD WILL HELP INCREASE DOWNWARD MOTION AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH A POSSIBILITY. CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20S...EXCEPT TEENS LOW LYING AREAS AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO COLORADO. MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. GRADIENT MUCH WEAKER THAT TODAY...SO GUSTS WON`T BE AS STRONG. WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. .LONG TERM...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON WED IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LVL TROUGH. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO BY WED AFTN WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THUS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER NERN CO. FOR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING WEST OF THE AREA AS ONLY SOME WK MID LVL QG ASCENT IS SHOWN. IN ADDITION AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LVL UPSLOPE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. CURRENT CROSS- SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN CO. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS. BY THU AFTN MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN CO WITH NO LOW LVL UPSLOPE AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS EAST AND SE OF THE AREA. THUS SNOW CHANCES SHOULD END BY MIDDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI RATHER DRY NNW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND WITH READINGS IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO. FOR THE WEEKEND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NWLY WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NEAR THE WY...NE BORDER. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO BASED ON LATEST DATA. && .AVIATION...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK SURGE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO DECREASE. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY 02Z. DRAINAGE FLOW TO THEN DEVELOP WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA AND WESTERLY AT KBJC. SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE AT KBJC OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 KTS. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...D-L LONG TERM....RPK AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
735 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 ...STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST... .UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... 00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY A VERY DEEP AND SHARP TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS NOW PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING AN IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN ITS WAKE OVERSPREADING THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THIS STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT/PV ANOMALY ARE CURRENTLY FORCING A RAPID AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THAT HAS BEEN...AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SNOWSTORM IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA IS A VERY WELL DEFINED AND STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS NOW ENTERED THE FLORIDA NATURE COAST AND WILL QUICKLY SURGE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE BEST DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOW EXITING TO OUR EAST...THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FOCUS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS. ALL RAIN CHANCES HAVE ENDED FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD AS OF THIS DISCUSSION...AND THE LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...LAST OF THE SHOWERS END OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. AS WAS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...THIS FRONT HAS AN ARCTIC ORIGIN AND THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS TYPE OF PROFILE CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY THE NWP GUIDANCE...AND VERIFIED BY UPSTREAM RAOBS. THE COLDEST AIR IS LOCATED IN THE LOWEST LEVELS 950-925MB...AND THEN WARMS/BECOMES INVERTED ABOVE THIS LEVEL TOWARD 850MB. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO REALLY FILTER IN THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE IN PLACE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE ONLY LOCATIONS IT APPEARS THE RUN THE RISK OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE UP TOWARD NORTHERN CITRUS/LEVY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND A STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY FOR ALL ZONES BY THE TIME FOLKS ARE HEADING OUT FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT...THE ARCTIC THERMAL PROFILE WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH ITS INVERTED STRUCTURE AND HENCE WE ARE LOOKING AT A WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. OUR NORTHERN AREA WILL STRUGGLE TOWARD 50 FOR A HIGH...WHILE THE I-4 CORRIDOR STRUGGLES INTO THE MIDDLE 50S...AND ONLY LOWER 60S DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS THE GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE UNDER A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR A LIKELY BOUNDARY LAYER DE-COUPLING SCENARIO...AND A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MORE LOCATIONS A THREAT FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MAKE FOR A MUCH LARGER DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURES FROM PLACE TO PLACE. MUCH OF THE AREA IS UNDER EITHER A FREEZE WATCH OR HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR SITE SPECIFIC FORECASTS AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAMPA FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED LOW TEMPS AND SPECIFIC WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR YOUR LOCATION. && .AVIATION... 22/00Z-23/00Z: ISOLD SHRA MOVING THROUGH BUT WITH ONLY LIMITED IMPACT TO KFMY AND KRSW WHICH HAVE VCSH TIL 04Z. PREVAILING VFR VSBY AND CIGS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN THE EVENING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BECOME NW THEN NORTH AND CALM DOWN IN THE MORNING AND BACK IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS GOING FOR ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINING GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF...AND EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 43 54 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 49 62 38 68 / 20 0 0 0 GIF 40 56 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 48 56 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 35 52 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 46 54 44 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE- COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE- HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY- INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS- POLK-SUMTER. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH- COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS. FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY. HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-POLK. FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS- INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE- INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK- SUMTER. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM- TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND- TAMPA BAY WATERS. && $$ UPDATE...MROCZKA AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
213 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NE/KS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE APPARENT BY DRY LAYER ON WV IMAGERY AND PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SOUTHERN NE/NORTHERN KS...IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. REGARDING CURRENT WIND ADVISORY...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE CURRENTLY HITTING CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 39-40KT REPORTED. WHILE IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD YET...UPSTREAM OBS ARE WELL OVER CRITERIA...AND AN AREA OF BLOWING DUST ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE. WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME WITH PEAK DAYTIME MIXING THAT I AM COMFORTABLE LETTING THE ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AS IS. I DO HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT NEAR RFW CRITERIA BEING MET...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HIGHER TD VALUES ADVECTING FROM THE NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SO I WILL MONITOR SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RH WILL PROBABLY HOLD STEADY OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS GO CALM COULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS GOOD WAA ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING LEE TROUGH TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO MILD TEMPS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. RH VALUES RANGING FROM 13-18 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA COULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...AND I AM WONDERING WHETHER WE WILL REALLY SEE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER...SO I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014 NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. POPS WILL DECREASE WITH TIME FROM EAST TO WEST WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH THE LIFT THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. PLAN TO HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MOST AVAILABLE TO FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. MOISTURE DRIES SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS WILL GO BACK TO NIL. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S. IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY COOLING DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON JAN 20 2014 MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTED VIS AS A RESULT OF BLOWING DUST. NW WINDS ALREADY COMING UP AT GLD AND EXPECT THE SAME BY 19Z AT KMCK BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS. EXPECTING GUSTS TO 40KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PRODUCE BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER AT KMCK. I AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD MORE THAN TEMPO VIS 6SM AT EITHER TERMINAL BASED ON PREVIOUS WIND EVENT WITH SIMILAR WIND VALUES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD REMAIN 12KT OR LESS THROUGH REMAINING TAF PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029. CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-091. NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1042 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 1030AM UPDATE... HAVE MADE ANOTHER BRIEF UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY COVER FORECAST. SOME CLEARING HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN AND DOWNSLOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERRAIN MAY KEEP IT FROM BEING A TOTALLY CLOUDY DAY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN. 930AM UPDATE... COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FRONT HAS CROSSED BERLIN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING 3 DEGREES AS IT MOVED IN. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT CONSISTENTLY ACROSS VERMONT AND CANADA THIS MORNING... AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MINOR INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SNOW SQUALLS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN ENHANCED AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP FORECAST TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COOLING BEHIND IT AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. 630AM UPDATE... THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR THE BML TO GNR REGION AS OF 1130Z. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF SQUALL IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z. ADJUSTED CLOUDS/POPS AND DEW POINTS AS WELL. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR RUN HAS THE SYSTEM REACHING THE COASTLINE BY ABOUT 19Z. IN ITS WAKE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND WITH A DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SQUALL WITH THIS EVENT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY TODAY IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 30S AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... ARCTIC CHILL ARRIVES IN FULL STEAM TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE COLDER MET MOS GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE. WITH NORTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING...WILL NEED WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES SURROUNDING THIS REGION IN THE FOOTHILLS. ON TUESDAY...THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TILT. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE SURFACE LOW BRUSHES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. COULD GO HIGHER ON THE POPS HOWEVER ALL OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE...OUT TO SEA SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS TREND WESTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE STORM FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ONLY POSSIBLY GRAZE PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES MAY MODIFY A LITTLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY BEING ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SINCE THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIODS OF BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AT TIMES. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LOCALLY DROP VSBYS/CIGS TODAY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LONG TERM...GUSTS TO 25 KT OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS VERY COLD AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ012>014. NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003-004. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...MARINE AVIATION...CANNON/MARINE MARINE...CANNON/MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
936 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 930AM UPDATE... COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FRONT HAS CROSSED BERLIN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING 3 DEGREES AS IT MOVED IN. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT CONSISTENTLY ACROSS VERMONT AND CANADA THIS MORNING... AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MINOR INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SNOW SQUALLS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN ENHANCED AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP FORECAST TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COOLING BEHIND IT AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. 630AM UPDATE... THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR THE BML TO GNR REGION AS OF 1130Z. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF SQUALL IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z. ADJUSTED CLOUDS/POPS AND DEW POINTS AS WELL. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR RUN HAS THE SYSTEM REACHING THE COASTLINE BY ABOUT 19Z. IN ITS WAKE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND WITH A DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SQUALL WITH THIS EVENT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY TODAY IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 30S AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... ARCTIC CHILL ARRIVES IN FULL STEAM TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE COLDER MET MOS GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE. WITH NORTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING...WILL NEED WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES SURROUNDING THIS REGION IN THE FOOTHILLS. ON TUESDAY...THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TILT. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE SURFACE LOW BRUSHES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. COULD GO HIGHER ON THE POPS HOWEVER ALL OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE...OUT TO SEA SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS TREND WESTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE STORM FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ONLY POSSIBLY GRAZE PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES MAY MODIFY A LITTLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY BEING ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SINCE THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIODS OF BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AT TIMES. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LOCALLY DROP VSBYS/CIGS TODAY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LONG TERM...GUSTS TO 25 KT OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS VERY COLD AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ012>014. NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003-004. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...MARINE AVIATION...CANNON/MARINE MARINE...CANNON/MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
624 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FROPA NEAR THE BML TO GNR REGION AS OF 1130Z. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF SQUALL IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z. ADJUSTED CLOUDS/POPS AND DEW POINTS AS WELL. PREV DISC...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR RUN HAS THE SYSTEM REACHING THE COASTLINE BY ABOUT 19Z. IN ITS WAKE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND WITH A DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SQUALL WITH THIS EVENT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY TODAY IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 30S AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ARCTIC CHILL ARRIVES IN FULL STEAM TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE COLDER MET MOS GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE. WITH NORTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING...WILL NEED WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES SURROUNDING THIS REGION IN THE FOOTHILLS. ON TUESDAY...THE GFS IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TILT. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE SURFACE LOW BRUSHES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. COULD GO HIGHER ON THE POPS HOWEVER ALL OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE...OUT TO SEA SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS TREND WESTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE STORM FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ONLY PSBLY GRAZE PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MRNG WITH SOME LGT SNOW. AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST WED AFTERNOON MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI AS HIGH PRES GRDLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NERN US. TEMPS MAY MODIFY A LITTLE SAT AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT WILL DRIVE SEWD FOR SUNDAY BEING ACCOMPANIED BY SNW SHWRS AND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SINCE THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIODS OF BITTER COLD TEMPS AT TIMES. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LOCALLY DROP VSBYS/CIGS TODAY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LONG TERM...GUSTS TO 25 KT OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS VERY COLD AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ012>014. NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003-004. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
656 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL. HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS. TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES. THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/. AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC. WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO -12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 655 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX AND UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD MID TO LATE EVENING...IFR CONDITIONS TO KCMX AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO KSAW LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR PREVAILING IFR VIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AT KIWD/KCMX...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WED MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT N AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY WED AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLSN WILL RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY VLIFR AT KCMX. WINDS/SNOW WON`T BE QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT AT KIWD WHERE CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN IFR... BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE. AT KSAW...CONDITIONS WON`T DETERIORATE BLO IFR UNTIL BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH WILL PLACE A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND PASS A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263>265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
528 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALF OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN CUTOFF UPR LO OVER QUEBEC AND RDG ALONG THE W COAST. AT THE SFC...ARCTIC HI PRES IS CENTERED OVER SCENTRAL CANADA. N FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -29C AT PICKLE LAKE AND MOOSONEE IN ONTARIO...ACRS LK SUP IS CAUSING NMRS WIND PARALLEL BANDS OF LK EFFECT SN THAT ARE AFFECTING DOWNSTREAM AREAS NEAR THE BIG LAKE DESPITE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI AS WELL AS THE FEED OF VERY DRY LLVL ARCTIC AIR. 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS SHOWED INVRN BASE JUST BLO H9 UNDER THIS SUBSIDENCE. THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS CAUSED SKIES TO TURN PCLDY OVER THE SCENTRAL. THERE IS ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV OVER THE DAKOTAS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALF...BUT THIS DISTURBANCE IS ON A TRACK THAT WL TAKE IT WELL TO THE SW OF UPR MI. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LES POPS AND SN AMOUNTS AS WELL AS WIND CHILLS AND GOING HEADLINES. TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC UNDER PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALF AND ON THE NRN FRINGES OF DAKOTA CLIPPER SAILING SEWD TO THE S OF THE CWA. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO FALL TO AS LO AS ABOUT -25C...SO LES WL CONTINUE IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS. BUT AS THE SFC HI PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA SINKS TO SW MN BY 12Z TUE... THE LLVL FLOW OVER UPR MI IS FCST TO BACK SLOWLY FM THE N TOWARD THE NW WITH TIME...SO THE SN BANDS SHOULD SHIFT ACCORDINGLY. ALTHOUGH THE LARGER SCALE H925-85 WL BE BACKING...A NUMBER OF THE HIER RES MODELS STILL SHOW A NEAR SFC ENE LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF ONTARIO ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING IMPACTING THE ERN CWA AND SHARPENING LLVL CNVGC IN ALGER/WRN LUCE/ NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. DESPITE THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE... FCST SDNGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW INVRN BASES UP NEAR 7K FT WITH LONGER FETCH OVER MORE OPEN ICE FREE WATER ENHANCING MIXING. ALTHOUGH THE DGZ IS FCST TO LOWER TO WITHIN 1-2K FT OF THE SFC...THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR GOING LES ADVY FOR THIS AREA. SHIFTING WINDS/MORE ICE COVER OVER WRN LK SUP/LOWER INVRN BASE NEAR 3-4K FT/NEAR ABSENCE OF DGZ OVER THE W WITH COLDER...MORE UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES WL FALL OVER THE W. SINCE THE BACKING FLOW WL INTRODUCE MORE UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE W HALF OF UPR MI WITH MIN SFC TEMPS FALLING WELL BLO ZERO...WL MAINTAIN GOING WIND CHILL ADVY EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT MEET THE MINIMUM 10 MPH CRITERIA AT MANY LOCATIONS. TUE...SFC ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT INTO FAR NW IL BY 00Z WED...RESULTING IN A SLOW BACKING/WEAKENING OF THE LLVL WINDS. WITH PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE ACYC FLOW...THE LES OVER THE W SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE BANDS SHIFT MAINLY INTO THE KEWEENAW BY LATER IN THE DAY. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...LLVL CNVGC INTO THE ERN CWA IS ALSO FCST TO WEAKEN. IN CONCERT WITH TREND TOWARD MORE DISORGANIZED BAND STRUCTURE WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS AND A FCST LOWERING OF THE INVRN BASE UNDER THE SUSTAINED QVECTOR DVGC... LES INTENSITY IN THE ADVY AREA OVER THE E SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE AFTN. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABV ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR W...BUT DIMINISHING WIND WL MODERATE WIND CHILLS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014 NO BIG CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTINENT INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND LESSER CHCS FOR SNOW FOR COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS INDICATE LAND BREEZES OFF ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH MESOLOW AND ASSOC LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFFSHORE OF ERN COUNTIES AND OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS OF COURSE WOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR ERN COUNTIES. AT SAME TIME...MODELS ALSO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM DESCENDING THROUGH MANITOBA/ONTARIO TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHICH IN TURN WILL ENHANCE MID-LAKE CONVERGNCE...LAKE-INDUCED TROUGH AND ASSOC MESOLOW FEATURES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEP LAYER MODERATE Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD DUSTING OF LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP WIND CHILLS GENERALLY GREATER THAN -20F OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE NIGHT. WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MESOLOWS AND MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE BANDS ONSHORE INTO UPPER MI BRINGING THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH WIND SHIFT...EXPECT MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE OVER MAINLY OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MOVE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENT TO MESOLOWS AND MID LAKE CONVERGENCE LES BANDS RESIDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW ALSO SHOW STRONG PRES RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FCST SNDGS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 35-40 KTS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEL QPF FIELDS SUGGEST HEAVIEST BANDS WILL FOCUS INTO MQT COUNTY WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. GIVEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FCST FOR HEAVY LES AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MQT COUNTY WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. FOR NOW ONLY INCLUDED MQT COUNTY IN WATCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HEADLINES WILL ALSO BE NEEDED FOR BARAGA AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS WINDS BACK NW WITH APPROACH OF SFC RDG FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE LES BANDS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING LIGHT LES EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FAR ERN SHORELINE...WINDS BACKING WSW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LES OUT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING A VERY BRIEF BREAK FROM SNOW THU EVENING BEFORE YET ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS IN A CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING LATE FRI/FRI EVENING WITH INCREASED MOISTENING...DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV ALONG WITH CONVERGENT W-WNW FLOW FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING TO BRING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LES INTO THE NW CWA. WITH BLYR WINDS FCST OVER 30 KTS ACROSS KEWEENAW AND LK SUPERIOR...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT BLSN/DRSN AND POOR VSBY AS WELL. MOST MODELS SHOW POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING NEAR TIP OF JAMES BAY THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT HEART OF COLDEST AIR (8H TEMPS -35F OR LOWER) WILL STAY NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT SHORTWAVE LOBES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE COULD BRING WAVE OF 8H TEMPS OF -28 TO -30F ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10F TO LOWER TEENS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH ABV ZERO AT SOME WRN INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT NW FLOW LES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014 A COLD N WIND SLOWLY BACKING NW WL BRING LK EFFECT -SHSN TO UPR MI THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A FEED OF LLVL DRY AIR AND LO INVRN BASE ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY VARY SGNFTLY AS IS OFTEN THE CASE DURING LK EFFECT SN EVENTS...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. IWD WL SEE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH FVRBL NNE FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF WRN LK SUP. THE BEST CHC FOR VFR WX WL BE AT SAW WITH A MORE DOWNSLOPE NW WIND AND AT IWD ON TUE MRNG ONCE THE FLOW BACKS SUFFICIENTLY TO FLOW OFF ICE BUILDUP AT THE SW END OF LK SUP. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014 WITH NNW WINDS UP TO 20-30 KTS ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO CONTINUE INTO TUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT DIMINISHING WINDS ON TUE WILL CAUSE THIS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. NEXT GALE EVENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007- 085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ005. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251- 267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ249- 250-266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244- 245-248-264-265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1150 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALF OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR TROF OVER EASTERN NAMERICA AND A RDG NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DISTURBANCE/ SFC LO PRES MOVING INTO WRN QUEBEC IS IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING N-E THRU UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GENERALLY LGT SN MAINLY NEAR LK SUP. MUCH COLDER AIR WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -27C AT YPL IS FOLLOWING THIS FNT...AND SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF FALLING OVER THE NRN TIER. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR... THE COMBINATION OF DNVA AHEAD OF AN APRCHG SHRTWV RDG/LOWERING INVRN BASE TOWARD 3K FT PER SHORT TERM FCST SDNGS AND ADVECTION OF DRIER LLVL AIR OSBVD IN ONTARIO IS TENDING TO HAMPER THE INTENSITY OF LES FOLLOWING THE FROPA. IN FACT...VSBL STLT IMAGERY IS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CLRG OVER THE N HALF OF LK SUP. THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG THAT IS DIVING ESEWD TOWARD THE CWA. STLT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME ENHANCED CLD IN THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT THE LLVL DRYING IN THE NNE FLOW TO THE S OF SFC ARCTIC HI PRES CENTERED OVER NRN MANITOBA IS LIMITING SN COVERAGE/ INTENSITY. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWV OVER ALBERTA IS MOVING SEWD. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE LES/SN AMOUNTS/GOING HEADLINES AND IMPACT OF CLIPPER SHRTWVS THAT WL BE DIVING SEWD THRU THE UPR LKS. TNGT...SFC COLD FNT NOW DROPPING SWD THRU UPR MI WL CLEAR MENOMINEE BY 00Z MON. INFLUX OF COLD AIR IN THE LLVL NLY FLOW BEHIND THIS FROPA THAT IS FCST TO DROP H85 TEMPS TO ARND -23C OR -24C OVER THE NRN TIER BY 12Z MON WL GENERATE LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS. ALTHOUGH LLVL DRYING/LO INVRN BASE WL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SHSN IN THE SHORT TERM...ARRIVAL OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF UPSTREAM CLIPPER SHRTWVS IS FCST TO SLOWLY RAISE FCST INVRN BASE AND BRING ABOUT SOME DEEPER MOISTENING. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCRS IN LES INTENSITY ESPECIALLY E OF MQT...WHERE LONGER FETCH OVER ICE FREE WATER AND SHARPER LLVL CNVGC OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES ON WRN FLANK OF LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF ONTARIO WL TEND TO PLAY A POSITIVE ROLE DESPITE SOME SLOWLY SHIFTING LLVL WINDS ACCOMPANYING PASSAGE OF UPR DISTURBANCE. GOING LES ADVY FOR THE ERN CWA SEEMS APPROPIATE. AWAY FM MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH LK SUP...DYNAMIC SUPPORT FM CLIPPER SHRTWV WL PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT LGT SHSN WITH LLVL DRYING OFFSETTING THE ACCOMPANYING UPWARD MOTION. NLY FLOW OFF LK SUP/ABUNDANT CLD COVER WL TEND TO MODERATE MIN TEMPS DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR. MON...CLIPPER NOW OVER ALBERTA/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST/UPR LKS IN THE MRNG. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN HIER INVRN BASE AND PERSISTENT LES NEAR LK SUP AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO ARND -26C IN SLOWLY SHIFTING LLVL NLY FLOW. BUT THE DIMINISHING DGZ DEPTH ACCOMPANYING INFLUX OF EVEN COLDER AIR AS WELL AS SLOWLY SHIFTING LLVL WINDS WL TEND TO LIMIT SN TOTALS. BUT WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MQT. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FREQUENT SHSN EARLY NEAR IWD CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THIS SECOND CLIPPER... WENT WITH NO MORE THAN LIKELY POPS OVER THE WRN SN BELTS CONSIDERING WEAKER LLVL CNVGC/MORE ICE COVER. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND ABUNDANT CLD COVER IN GENERAL N FLOW OFF LK SUP...EXPECT LTL DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DETAILS ON LES AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON WED. STARTING 00Z TUE...THE CWA WILL BE BENEATH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL START OUT AOB -25C. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NNW AS THE CWA IS BETWEEN A SFC TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND A 1040MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ND. A TROUGH WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE SSE INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...PROMOTING CYCLONIC FLOW THERE...WHILE FLOW OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC. LES WILL BE ONGOING IN ALL NNW WIND SNOWBELT...BUT THE MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY LES /INCLUDING INVERSION TOPS AROUND 7KFT/. NOT MUCH CHANGES THROUGH THE REST OF MON NIGHT...EXCEPT THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE TO FAR SW MN...MAKING FOR EVEN LESS FAVORABLE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCAL EFFECTS IS WITH ICE COVERAGE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THAT MAY CLOSE DOWN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TO LES. THERE WAS GOOD ICE COVERAGE OVER THE W WHEN LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY...BUT WITH STRONG SW WINDS LAST NIGHT TURNING MORE NWLY TODAY...NOT SURE ABOUT THE COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THAT ICE INTO THE FUTURE. THE NIGHT SHIFT LAST NIGHT PUT UP AN ADVISORY FOR ALGER...NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH MON NIGHT. THEN FOR TUE...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SE AS THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE ERN LAKE DIMINISHES. FLOW BECOME VERY ANTICYCLONIC OVER ALL BUT EXTREME ERN LAKE SUPERIOR /WHERE IT WILL BE NEUTRAL/ BY 00Z WED. 850MB TEMPS ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND -20C UNDER THE SFC RIDGE TUE. SHOULD SEE LES DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W AND CENTRAL. EVEN WITH CONDITIONS BEING UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LES OVER CENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW...WHICH WOULD MAINLY BE AREAS N OFF THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NWRN CWA. EXTENDED PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HEADLINES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LAKE TROUGHING SHOULD STICK AROUND OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...HELPING TO CONTINUE LES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TUE LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE CWA STARTING TUE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO N OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED...BRINGING A BROAD...WEAK SFC LOW TO THE AREA. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BE ENHANCED BY LAKE AGGREGATE AS A MESO LOW MAY FORM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT TO WHAT MAGNITUDE AND EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z/19 NAM...00Z/19 GLOBAL GEM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 00Z/19 ECMWF FAVOR THE MESO LOW TO MOVE OVER E CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...MOVING INTO UPPER MI SOMEWHERE E OF MARQUETTE WED EVENING. THIS PATH IS TYPICALLY WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...BUT THE EXACTLY WHERE THAT LOW MOVES WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE STRONGEST SNOW AND WIND WILL FOCUS. THIS COULD BE QUITE AN INTERESTING EVENT OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AS THE MESO LOW WILL VERY QUICKLY SHIFT SE AS IT MOVES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A 1050MB HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING A 1030MB SFC RIDGE INTO THE CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISE...BUT THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE POSSIBLE MESO LOW...WHERE BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NNE FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS ALONG AND BEHIND THE MESO LOW AND FROM JUST AHEAD TO JUST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NCENTRAL UPPER MI WOULD BE FAVORED FOR UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT MAY MAKE FOR VERY TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS SOMEWHERE IN THE LATE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING TIME FRAME. AGAIN...THESE ARE PRETTY LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO EXACTLY PREDICT EVENT A DAY OUT...BUT THE CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NCENTRAL UPPER MI IS PRETTY GOOD GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN. OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA AFFECTED BY THE MESO LOW...THE REST OF NWRN UPPER MI LOOKS FAVORED FOR A GOOD BURST OF SNOW AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. EXPECT LES WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM NLY TO NWLY WITH -25C 850MB TEMPS...BUT WITH THE SFC RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ON THU...THE LES SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN THU MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY LATER THU...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER THAT WILL STAY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA. THE MORE FAVORABLE CURVATURE TO THE FLOW WILL FAVORED THE KEWEENAW FOR LES AS STRONG WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WSW THROUGH 06Z FRI...VEERING OUT OF THE WNW BEHIND THE CLIPPER BY 18Z FRI. 850MB TEMPS LATE THU THROUGH FRI WILL BE IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE...WHICH WILL PUT MORE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE IN THE DGZ...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TO ONLY BE 4-5KFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. ONE TREND THAT CAN BE NOTED IS THAT THE COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS BELOW -30C/ SHOWN IN PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL RUNS MOVING OVER THE CWA IS NOW BEING SHOWS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH THE COLDEST AIR TO THE NE. THIS COULD CHANGE...BUT AT LEAST IT IS A NOTABLE TREND FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A FEED OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH COLD HI PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT TYPICALLY BRINGS VARIABLE CONDITIONS... SOMETIMES HIGHLY VARIABLE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE GENERAL PREVAILING CONDITION AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS...AND THE BEST CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KIWD THIS MORNING WHEN A PASSING DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF A FAVORABLE NNE FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE THE SHSN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 EXPECT N TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT AND MON E OF ARCTIC HI PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THE RESULTING WAVE ACTION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY IF NOT LONGER AS AREA IS ENTRENCHED IN COLD AIR. NEXT GALE EVENTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAME AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007- 085. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244- 245-248>251-264>267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ243-263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC/TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
901 PM MST TUE JAN 21 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM HARLOWTON TO RYEGATE AND DOWN INTO THE RED LODGE AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM JUST EAST OF ROUNDUP THROUGH HYSHAM AND DOWN TOWARD BROADUS. THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND IS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING. THEREFORE LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE BAND WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THE RAP HAS BEEN THE ONLY COMPUTER MODEL TO CATCH ONTO THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAND AND HAVE BEEN LEANING HEAVILY ON IT FOR THIS UPDATE...ALONG WITH THE QG FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS OF THE GFS. GIVEN THIS MODEL COMBINATION...BEST QG FORCING MATCHES UP WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE BAND WILL PUSH...AND WHETHER PARK COUNTY MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THERE. FOR THE RED LODGE AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS...THE FORCING MENTIONED ABOVE IS COMBINED WITH VERY DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH THE RAP SHOWING NORTHERLY WINDS ALL THE WAY TO 600 MB. WHILE THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS A LITTLE HIGH...ABOVE 700 MB...IT IS STILL ALMOST 100 MB DEEP WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE LAYER. THEREFORE...ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPSLOPE SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREA. CHURCH && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU... MODELS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING AIRMASS CHANGE...BUT NOTED THE WRF WAS MOVING PRECIPITATION SW THROUGH THE AREA FASTER THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW...LEANED ON THE GFS WHICH MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STRONG REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE S INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO AREAS E OF KBIL...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TO AREAS FROM JUDITH GAP TO HARLOWTON TO KSHR. THE COLDER AIR WILL BRING LOWS OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO KBHK...WITH TEENS AND 20S ELSEWHERE. SHORTWAVE SEEN OFF THE COAST OF BC AND THE PACIFIC NW IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SLIDE S THROUGH ID ON WED BRINGING SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION ...THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH E MT...REINFORCING THE COLDER AIR. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AND TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED THE UPPER SUPPORT WAS NOT DIRECTLY IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH WAS THE FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS MOVED QPF SW THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND HAD A BULLSEYE OF ABOUT .14 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE QPF AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH /.10/ OF AN INCH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM -2 DEGREES C W TO -16 DEGREES C E BY 00Z THU. THUS...AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S W TO TEENS E...EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. EXPECT AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A DUSTING E...TO 2 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS TO 3 INCHES IN THE NE BIG HORNS. THE UPPER FORCING WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING AND PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED POPS WED NIGHT. ONE ITEM OF NOTE WAS THAT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WED NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AND NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. EXPECT WED NIGHT TO BE COLD COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE REGION OF LATE. ADJUSTED LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS BELOW ZERO E TO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO W. A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION ON THU. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE E THU NIGHT MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AROUND KBHK AND KMLS...SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S TO THE 40S ON THU UNDER WARM ADVECTION. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THU NIGHT. ARTHUR .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE... EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SATURDAY THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE COLDEST AIR AS THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD AIR CLOSER TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDER WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR FURTHER WEST INTO OUR CENTRAL ZONES. MODELS BRING A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS AND PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP AND ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME BUT MOSTLY LIKELY THESE WILL NEED INCREASED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARRIVE BY MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY STILL DON`T LOOK TOO COLD GIVEN IT IS STILL JANUARY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIR JUST EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS...WILL NEED TO WATCH AND SEE IF THESE COLDER READINGS TREND WESTWARD. HOOLEY && .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT WILL BACK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN TONIGHT...THEN PUSH WEST TOWARD LIVINGSTON BY MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THE SNOW WILL BRING MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. THE SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. RICHMOND && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 028/032 011/039 028/049 031/049 029/043 022/037 024/044 47/S 40/N 01/N 11/N 11/B 22/W 22/W LVM 025/038 013/038 027/046 027/045 029/040 022/039 024/040 17/O 40/B 01/N 01/N 11/N 12/W 12/W HDN 024/030 003/035 024/048 028/047 025/040 019/035 020/040 46/S 30/U 01/B 11/B 12/W 22/J 22/W MLS 011/018 910/029 021/045 026/042 025/035 013/028 012/034 23/S 10/U 22/W 11/B 22/J 22/J 11/B 4BQ 019/026 907/026 019/044 027/043 025/037 014/030 014/036 45/S 10/U 12/W 11/B 12/J 22/J 11/B BHK 007/013 916/025 019/040 024/038 024/031 007/020 004/030 22/S 10/U 22/W 21/B 22/J 21/B 11/B SHR 023/033 002/032 018/045 027/045 025/040 019/036 018/039 36/S 30/U 01/B 10/B 11/B 23/J 23/J && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 28-34-41-42-56-63-66. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1042 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2014 Update to Aviation .UPDATE... Tonight...A weak disturbance is moving through the northwest flow aloft and an associated cold front moved through the northern zones and pushed into the central. This front is dry and the main effect will be cooler temperatures tonight and tomorrow. Updated to lower low temps for tonight across the northern and southern zones. Also freshened pops and wx. Zelzer && .AVIATION... UPDATED 542Z. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the TAF period. Mid level clouds will taper off by 10Z. Mercer && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2014/ Tonight through Tuesday...Overall pattern remains unchanged with a strong upper ridge over the west coast and dry northwest flow aloft. Models move a weak short wave embedded within the northwest flow aloft through the area late this evening. Surface winds will shift to the north for a few hours. The RUC and the European models develop light qpf near the Little Belts as a result of this weak upslope flow. HRRR analysis also develops qpf in this area for a few hours late this evening. Have gone with low pops to support this possibility. The surface gradient is not as tight on Monday allowing for lighter winds. Monday and Tuesday will continue dry with a northerly flow aloft. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages. Tuesday night through Sunday...The main change in the extended period was to increase the chances for rain/snow Wednesday into Wednesday night...as both the EC/GFS continue to show an upper level disturbance moving southward through the region. There looks to be a bit more moisture with this disturbance...thus pops have been increased...especially in the mountains around Kings Hill. Snow accumulations still look to be on the low side...with most lower elevation locations only seeing around 1 inch of snowfall...and about 2 to 3 inches in the mountains. After this disturbance moves through little to no precipitation is expected from Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures will cool a bit Wednesday as the disturbance moves through the region...with high temperatures likely in the morning and then falling in the afternoon. It will be cold Wednesday night as skies clear out a bit...and with the possible fresh snow cover...temperatures will fall rather quickly early Thursday morning. Otherwise...expect afternoon temperatures to generally be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal starting as early as Thursday afternoon and then continuing into next weekend. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 24 46 29 51 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 19 44 24 47 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 23 43 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 20 39 19 42 / 0 0 0 0 WEY 7 32 8 33 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 22 41 23 45 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 20 35 20 40 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 23 39 25 44 / 0 0 0 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST Monday Liberty. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
139 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 344 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 BROAD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE CONUS TONIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW NOTED OVER SRN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING UP THE WEST COAST INTO THE YUKON. A DECENT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 50 TO 80 METER HT FALLS NOTED OVER MT...THE DAKOTAS AND MN. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN...INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN SD AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NERN ND AND FAR NRN MN...WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN ND AND NEBRASKA. SOME 20S WERE NOTED OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHERE WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 139 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST ARE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR WAS PICKING UP A VERY WEAK BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WHICH WAS ROUGHLY FROM MERRIMAN TO BREWSTER TO BARTLETT. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AS THIS BAND HAS MOVED THROUGH. THE REFLECTIVITIES ARE VERY LIGHT...AND WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 50 MPH ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS...BELIEVE THE SNOW IS NOT ACTUALLY MEASURABLE AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. SO ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSEQUENT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...REPORTS OF SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SO ADDED THAT INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS WELL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS REACHED MAXIMUM MIXING HEIGHT AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT DON/T BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH FURTHER WARMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF WINDS...HAVE RECEIVED A FEW ISOLATED REPORTS OF GUSTS TO 58 MPH OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM MODELS WERE A BIT STRONG WITH PRESSURE RISES OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHEN COMPARED TO MSAS DATA. THESE EXTREME PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE RISES WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THINK IF ANY FURTHER GUSTS TO 58 MPH OCCUR IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND MOST PLACES WILL BE AT HIGH END ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL FORE-GO UPGRADING TO HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 344 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN NEBRASKA AROUND 15Z...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE KIND OF TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE ARCTIC FROPA. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS...HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY EARLY IN THE NORTH AROUND NOONTIME WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH...HIGHS WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE AND OCCUR IN THE MID AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TODAY CONTINUES TO RUN TOO COOL...IN PARTICULAR THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS A HIGH OF 37 FOR NORTH PLATTE. EVEN THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE OF 44 FALLS SHORT GIVEN THE FCST H85 TEMPS OF 1 TO 2C TDY AND DECENT MIXING POTENTIAL VIA INCREASING NRLY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. FOR VALENTINE...GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE CURRENT TEMP OF 33. BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S ALONG THE SD/NEBR BORDER. LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE NERN FORECAST AREA...THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. TIME SECTIONS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CWA...INDICATE A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER FROM H85-H70 ROUGHLY ACROSS HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES...WHICH IS COLOCATED WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS LIFT IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND IS CENTERED AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED LEAVE IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NERN FORECAST AREA...BUFFERED BY A BAND OF FLURRIES FROM NORTH OF AINSWORTH TO SOUTH OF EWING. THE FINAL FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH BE THE WIND THREAT TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND A NICE MID LEVEL PV MAX WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. H85 WINDS WILL PUSH 40 TO 50 KTS BY MID MORNING IN THE EAST...THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WEST. TYPICALLY IN THIS SETUP...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS END QUICKLY TOWARD SUNDOWN...HOWEVER...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST THROUGH MID EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...FEEL INCLINED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 3Z ROUGHLY EAST OF A VALENTINE TO ARNOLD LINE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NERN NEBRASKA TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDING BY LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD TONIGHT...RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 344 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS IS THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST REGION. MEANWHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...WITH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL...A WESTERLY CHINOOK WIND WILL BRING A VERY MILD DAY TO THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS WEST OF HWY 83 SEEING HIGHS OF 50 DEGREES OR BETTER. AS MENTIONED...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 1050 MB WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 18Z THURSDAY. WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF HIGHS THURSDAY...AS THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS QUITE COLD. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WARMING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BY SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEB. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014 WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. TOP WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...THEN AFTER 22Z SHOULD START TO DECREASE. STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF A KVTN TO KLBF LINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH. BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. A BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY HITTING AREAS ALONG A LINE FROM KVTN TO KODX. BY 12Z TUESDAY ONLY CLOUDS ABOVE 8K FEET ARE EXPECTED. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004- 022>024-035-036-056>059-069>071-094. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-025>029- 037-038. && $$ UPDATE...BROOKS SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
104 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 100 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 DECREASED DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE LATEST RAP NUMERICAL MODEL. EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON...NEAR H75 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER 45 TO 55KTS AND THREE HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES AVERAGE 3 TO 9 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA UNTIL 6 PM. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER INTO THE EVENING BEYOND THE 6 PM TIME FRAME DUE TO THE TIGHT GRADIENT/STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM AS WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES COOL. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER 20 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL DURING THE NIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE WINDS FOR TOMORROW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS THAT ARE IN THE GRIDS ARE JUST AT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL WAIT AT THIS TIME FOR WIND ADVISORY THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY IS A BITTERLY COLD DAY EVERYWHERE...WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY WARM TO BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TUESDAY...A 1040MB HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA ON TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A BRUSH OF COLD AIR WITH THE WORST OF THE COLD AIR SLIDING EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL PICK UP A SOUTHERLY OR EVEN WESTERLY SFC WIND COMPONENT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES TO OUR EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START TO MODERATE FROM WEST TO EAST AND KEEP THE COLD AIR FROM WORKING VERY FAR TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...COULD SEE A NICE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST. WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL BE A VERY DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. WILL KEEP NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND 30 FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE GOING WITH THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY REACH LATER IN THE DAY. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THURSDAY...SHOULD CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE TEENS NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. A 1045 SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE RIGHT OVER US ON SUNDAY...THIS IS SOME PRETTY COLD AIR. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY AND WARM WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 WIND WILL BE THE BIG CONCERN WITH INCREASED MIXING TO 750 MB. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WINDS THAT HAVE PICKED UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HEINLEIN SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JJW AVIATION...HEINLEIN FIRE WEATHER...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
936 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 936 PM EST TUESDAY...MAIN STORY AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS THE VERY COLD ACTUAL AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTER OF SFC ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE NOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. VERY STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MASSENA CURRENTLY IS TAKING THE CAKE FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR WITH A 20 BELOW ZERO READING AS OF 9 PM...BUT TEMPS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE COMMON IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ACROSS VERMONT...CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR ZER0 AT SPRINGFIELD TO 10 TO 13 BELOW IN NORTHERN VERMONT. WELL TO THE SOUTH IS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL CYCLONE ENHANCING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES DO REMAIN...THOUGH IN THE STRICTEST SENSE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS VERMONT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK BUT BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES THERE WILL COMPENSATE. ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL AREAWIDE WITH THE SHARPEST FALLS MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT. I DON`T THINK OUR CLIMATE SITES ARE IN ANY JEOPARDY OF BREAKING DAILY LOW RECORDS /SEE CLIMATE SECTION/...THOUGH MASSENA MAY COME CLOSE GIVEN ITS CURRENT READING. NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE IS SEVERAL DEGREES OFF CURRENT TEMPERATURES. BIAS CORRECTED RAP GUIDANCE AND ADJUSTED ECMWF MOS GENERALLY PERFORMING BETTER THAN OTHERS...AND SO I`VE CONTINUED TO LOWER HOURLY TEMPS DOWN BRINGING LOWS BETWEEN 3 BELOW TO -26 BELOW (COLDEST IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY). REGARDING POPS/WX...I DID REDUCE POPS FURTHER ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT BASED ON REFLECTIVITY TRENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL FEEL THAT A FEW FLAKES OF LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT...BUT NOT LIKELY TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OR SO AS THE GREATEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND DRY PBL AIR ALSO BEING A NEGATIVE. I DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH 09Z BASED ON STRONG LAKE-TO-AIR LAPSE RATES. ONLY A FEW HI-RES MODELS POINT TO SUCH DEVELOPMENT /PARTICULARLY THE NMM/ BUT THINK THE THREAT BECOMES MORE LIMITED AS WE HEAD INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 337 PM EST TUESDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE BIG STORY AS ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. COLD AIR WILL BE RE-ENFORCED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO ADVECT MORE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH THE COLD WILL COME RATHER QUIET WEATHER HOWEVER. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO GET ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND WILL RANGE FROM 5-10 ABOVE SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH WINDS FIGURE TO BE LIGHTER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDS ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SW FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PSBL IN THE SW FLOW ON FRIDAY...BEFORE PRECIP RELATED TO APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADS TO INCREASING WINDS AND WAA INTO FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE REGION AND MODERATING TEMPS. FRIDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRANSLATE ITS ENERGY INTO ERN ONTARIO AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRAVELS EWD INTO SWRN QUEBEC. LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NGT...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL SHOWING LGT QPF AMNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. SUNDAY MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...ESP OVER THE TRRN AS UPPER LVL VORTICITY CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. COLD SFC TEMPS RETURN WITH MAX TEMPS IN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LVL VORTICITY FOLLOWS MONDAY NGT WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THRU PERIOD. KMPV/KRUT WILL BE ON NRN EDGE OF SFC LOW MVG ARD 40N/70W BENCHMARK...OTHER THAN A STRAY FLAKE/TWO...NOT EXPECTING ANY OBSTRUCTION TO VSBY. THE CPV WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM THE WARM LAKE AND COLD AIR TEMPERATURES DEVELOP. KBTV MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS LIKE LAST NIGHT...MAINLY BTWN 04Z AND 08Z. BUT WITH MORE N-NNW WIND EXPECTED...AS OPPOSED TO LAST NGTS NNE WIND...MVFR CLDS AND -SHSN MAY AFFECT AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. SFC LOW WILL PULL INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MRNG...TAKING ANY MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AROUND SUNRISE PERSIST THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SFC LOW TO THE SE AND SFC HIGH TO OUR NW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 6-12 KTS FOR THE CPV EAST...WITH LIGHTER CONDITIONS TO THE WEST AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS ESP ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY S-SW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WHICH WL SHIFT TO THE W-NW BY SATURDAY NGT BEHIND SFC COLD FRNT. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL AS WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OUT OF THE W AT 5-15KTS. && .CLIMATE... WITH ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION...HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE FOLLOWING: 1/22 1/23 1/24 BTV -22F/1970 -19F/1970 -22F/1948 MSS -29F/2005 -26F/2000 -30F/1976 MPV -27F/1984 -18F/2000 -22F/2011 1V4 -28F/1984 -25F/2000 -34F/1907 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006- 016>019. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ001-002- 005-007>012. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026-027- 029>031-034-087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM/SLW CLIMATE...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
941 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW. MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 931 AM EST MONDAY...SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS ARCTIC FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT. SNOW BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT THIS DRYING TREND TO SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR REST OF THE MORNING FOR MOST AREAS...AND ADJUSTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP SLIGHTLY. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING MOST AREAS. LOOK FOR MIDDAY READINGS TO RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS AT MASSENA NY TO LOWER 30S AT SPRINGFIELD VT. EARLIER DISCUSSION... ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT THIS EARLY HOUR. TRENDS CONTINUE FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC PVA ANALYSIS TRAVERSE THE AREA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID-MORNING...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS...NOT A LOT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND EXPECT OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2"...BUT LOCALIZED SQUALLS REMAIN POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CRANK OUT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2". TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY OWING TO DIFFICULTY TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT AREAS NORTH OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REALIZE MAX TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR...TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OR CLIMB A BIT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BEFORE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH CLEARING WE`LL SEE AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THERE`S LOTS OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS AND WILL HEDGE TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY. THE RETURN OF ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES BEGINS TONIGHT THOUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW TONIGHT...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT (4-8 MPH)...THEY`LL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WILL BE THE RULE AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO GET ABOVE ZERO...BUT LIKELY WILL BY JUST A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 5-10 ABOVE SOUTH. WE`LL LIKELY HAVE A REPEAT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TEMPS DROP A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AND WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. I ENVISION ANOTHER ADVISORY BEING NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 450 AM EST MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO ON FRIDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE ZERO. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINTING AT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HOWEVER ARE SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS ARCTIC FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE THE GFS MODEL STILL HAS THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN CANADA APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL KEEPS IN A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WILL STAY WITH PREVIOUS CONTINUITY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A LOW TRACKING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ANYWAY...BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS CONTINUING AFTER 18Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 12Z TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>004-006>008-010-016>019. NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/KGM EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
723 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW. MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT THIS EARLY HOUR. TRENDS CONTINUE FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC PVA ANALYSIS TRAVERSE THE AREA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID-MORNING...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS...NOT A LOT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND EXPECT OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2"...BUT LOCALIZED SQUALLS REMAIN POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CRANK OUT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2". TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY OWING TO DIFFICULTY TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT AREAS NORTH OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REALIZE MAX TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR...TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OR CLIMB A BIT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BEFORE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH CLEARING WE`LL SEE AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THERE`S LOTS OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS AND WILL HEDGE TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY. THE RETURN OF ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES BEGINS TONIGHT THOUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW TONIGHT...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT (4-8 MPH)...THEY`LL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WILL BE THE RULE AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO GET ABOVE ZERO...BUT LIKELY WILL BY JUST A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 5-10 ABOVE SOUTH. WE`LL LIKELY HAVE A REPEAT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TEMPS DROP A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AND WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. I ENVISION ANOTHER ADVISORY BEING NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 450 AM EST MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO ON FRIDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE ZERO. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINTING AT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HOWEVER ARE SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS ARCTIC FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE THE GFS MODEL STILL HAS THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN CANADA APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL KEEPS IN A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WILL STAY WITH PREVIOUS CONTINUITY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A LOW TRACKING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ANYWAY...BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS CONTINUING AFTER 18Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 12Z TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>004-006>008-010-016>019. NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/KGM EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW. MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT THIS EARLY HOUR. TRENDS CONTINUE FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC PVA ANALYSIS TRAVERSE THE AREA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID-MORNING...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS...NOT A LOT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND EXPECT OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2"...BUT LOCALIZED SQUALLS REMAIN POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CRANK OUT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2". TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY OWING TO DIFFICULTY TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT AREAS NORTH OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REALIZE MAX TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR...TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OR CLIMB A BIT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BEFORE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH CLEARING WE`LL SEE AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THERE`S LOTS OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS AND WILL HEDGE TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY. THE RETURN OF ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES BEGINS TONIGHT THOUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW TONIGHT...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT (4-8 MPH)...THEY`LL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WILL BE THE RULE AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO GET ABOVE ZERO...BUT LIKELY WILL BY JUST A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 5-10 ABOVE SOUTH. WE`LL LIKELY HAVE A REPEAT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TEMPS DROP A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AND WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. I ENVISION ANOTHER ADVISORY BEING NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 450 AM EST MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO ON FRIDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE ZERO. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINTING AT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HOWEVER ARE SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS ARCTIC FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE THE GFS MODEL STILL HAS THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN CANADA APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL KEEPS IN A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WILL STAY WITH PREVIOUS CONTINUITY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A LOW TRACKING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ANYWAY...BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH SOME BRIEF AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS CONTINUING AFTER 18Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>004-006>008-010-016>019. NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/KGM EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
418 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW. MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT THIS EARLY HOUR. TRENDS CONTINUE FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC PVA ANALYSIS TRAVERSE THE AREA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID-MORNING...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS...NOT A LOT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND EXPECT OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2"...BUT LOCALIZED SQUALLS REMAIN POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CRANK OUT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2". TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY OWING TO DIFFICULTY TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT AREAS NORTH OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REALIZE MAX TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR...TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OR CLIMB A BIT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BEFORE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH CLEARING WE`LL SEE AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THERE`S LOTS OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS AND WILL HEDGE TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY. THE RETURN OF ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES BEGINS TONIGHT THOUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW TONIGHT...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT (4-8 MPH)...THEY`LL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WILL BE THE RULE AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO GET ABOVE ZERO...BUT LIKELY WILL BY JUST A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 5-10 ABOVE SOUTH. WE`LL LIKELY HAVE A REPEAT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TEMPS DROP A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AND WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. I ENVISION ANOTHER ADVISORY BEING NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 205 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR AN OVERALL QUIET PERIOD THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST KEEPS SOME CLOUDS AROUND AS RIDGING BUILDS JUST TO THE WEST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ONLY SLGT CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO SRN VT. COLD AIR CONTINUES WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -24C AND 925MB TEMPS OF -20C TO -26C. AT THE SFC THIS WILL MEAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT BELOW ZERO. ON FRIDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN MODERATING SW FLOW...AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTICEABLE AT THE SFC WITH FRIDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND FRIDAY NGT MIN TEMPS ABOVE ZERO. GFS STARTS TO BRING SNOW FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM INTO THE SLV LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RIDGE SLOW TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SE. OVERALL INCREASING THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NGT INTO SATURDAY...WITH BULK OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING SUNDAY MAX TEMPS INTO THE TEENS TO L20S. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH SOME BRIEF AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS CONTINUING AFTER 18Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>004-006>008-010-016>019. NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH/KGM EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
740 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM TUE...WE ARE MONITORING TRENDS TO THE WEST FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CWA COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LOW PRES IS CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER SE NC THIS EVENING. INC 850-700MB FGEN OBSERVED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF NC PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING WITH INTENSIFYING MESOSCALE BANDING FROM ROUGHLY ROANOKE RAPIDS TO FAYETTEVILLE PER RADAR RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER IR IMAGERY. NEAR TERM X-SECTION RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS BANDS PIVOTING/PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING ON COOL SIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM. SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE EFFICIENT GIVEN STRONG LIFT/OMEGA IN DENDRITE GROWTH REGION AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES AS THE BAND MIGRATES EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NE NC...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL AND NE NC. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...AS A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...VERY STRONG LIFT AND ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN WINTRY WX DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING RAPIDLY. PRECIP BEGINNING AS LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 7-10PM. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 264 AND NORTHERN OBX...WHERE COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COAST COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING. WARM TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY. WINTER WX ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT CARTERET/OBX HYDE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND INTO EARLY AM FOR THE OUTER BANKS. GUSTY NW WINDS STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW/MID 20S. SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS/BRIDGES ETC OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH FREEZING TEMPS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AM...WILL LIKELY COVER WITH AN SPS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUE...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC/NE COAST WED. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WED MORNING. WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CWA INTO WED MORNING WITH SLICK SPOTS EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS. GIVEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS -14 TO -10C...VERY COLD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NC. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT REACH FREEZING...AND HIGHS GENERALLY 25-31 DEGREES. SOME RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY REINFORCEMENT OF THE DEEP EASTERN US TROF LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE W/NW DOMINATED FLOW ALOFT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CROSS WED NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS INLAND TO LOWER 20S BEACHES. LOW LVL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC FRONT BUT STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS UPR 30S N TO LOWER 40S S. A DRY COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD IN THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRI MORNING. LOOKS LIKE MANY AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 30F ON FRIDAY. CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 45-50F DURING THE WEEKEND. SAT LOOKS RATHER WINDY AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS ESPCLY NEAR THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONT. HIGHS NEXT TUESDAY FALL BACK AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 630 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP. THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED...MAINLY BTWN 00-03Z FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPO IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW LIKELY THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE INDLUDING IN TAFS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END BY 06-08Z. VFR WILL RETURN EARLY WED THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW N WINDS INC TO 35 KNOTS NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. GALE WARNINGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AND SOUNDS. NW WINDS WILL PEAK TONIGHT AT 25-35KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KT. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVEWATCH...AND HAVE SEAS PEAKING AT 8-12FT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WED...WILL STILL FREQ GUSTS TO 35KT EARLY WED AM. SCA WILL BE NEEDED BEHIND THE GALES...ESP NORTH OF OCRACOKE WHERE ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED EVENING. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS OCCASIONAL REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGES LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS/SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THU. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS WILL AGAIN BE RAMPING UP AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER FRI AND FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. W/SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER FRI NIGHT AND ESPCLY SAT AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 3 PM TUE...THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WATER LEVELS 1.5-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUND-SIDE PORTION OF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND WED. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 22ND: CAPE HATTERAS 26 MANTEO 25 OCRACOKE 30 NEW BERN 30 WILLIAMSTON 31 KINSTON 19 GREENVILLE 27 BAYBORO 29 MOREHEAD CITY 31 WASHINGTON 32 && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>094-098-103. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103- 104. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-135-156-158. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD NEAR TERM...CQD/TL SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...BTC AVIATION...BTC/CQD/TL MARINE...BTC/CQD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR REGINA SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND JAMESTOWN. MINOT WAS AT 35 DEGREES BUT RUGBY WAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AT 14 AND REPORTING LIGHT SNOW. JAMESTOWN WAS AT 29 WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT VALLEY CITY WAS AT 19 WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. THE FRONT WAS NEAR HARVEY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND CALM WINDS AT 27 DEGREES...AND CARRINGTON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW WITH 25 DEGREES. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AND CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE COMBINED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW. THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE FRONT IS STEEP...AND THERE MAY BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THE LIGHT SNOW FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED MINOT COULD SEE RAIN OR SNOW (AND THE MINOT AIR BASE REPORTED LIGHT RAIN FOR A SHORT TIME LATE SUNDAY EVENING). BISMARCK COULD ALSO SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN...BUT THE JAMESTOWN SOUNDING INDICATED ALL SNOW THERE. CURRENT FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM ON TRACK. NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO 25 TO 30 MPH...AND LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THE NORTH WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS WELL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED FROM NEAR REGINA SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINOT AND JAMESTOWN. UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY INDICATED OVER RENVILLE AND WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY WITH LIGHTER REFLECTIVITIES NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS TRACK THIS AREA OF SNOW SOUTHEAST WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER 06 UTC...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE WERE UPDATES TO HOURLY POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...AND FUTURE POPS BASED ON 02Z RAP AND 00Z NAM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST. MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO CUT BACK ON POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE STRATUS AND THAT SHOULD SPREAD WEST LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS EVENING. 22Z HRRR AND 23Z RAP MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 06Z. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS OF TODAY`S FORECAST IS WIND TOMORROW. 12 UTC NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS A LITTLE OVER 40 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER TO SQUASH MIXING THAN THE NAM...SUGGESTING THAT GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY NOT EVEN MATERIALIZE. THE FORECAST REMAINS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. RIGHT NOW...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SPEED UP ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN SLIDES ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND THERE IS GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT UP TO 2 INCHES WILL FALL ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND EAST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS UNDER A QUASI-ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING ALL OF THE COMING WORK WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WILL SEE SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/WV`S TRAVERSING NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH POSSIBLE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG 1040MB SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL NEAR 20 BELOW OVER MY EAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO 15 BELOW WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARMER WEST...ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE...THANKS TO RETURN FLOW/WEAK WAA. FIRST IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BROADER S/WV TROUGH WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW...THE FIRST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE (GRAZING MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND THE SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL ND. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH EACH FEATURE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG CAA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10KTS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND CHILL HEADLINES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POSSIBLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT...AND ARE ALSO FLUCTUATING MODEL RUN TO RUN. OVERALL...THE ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE THERMAL BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST AND WARMER SOUTHWEST. THE VERY COLD AIR PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS NOW CONSISTENTLY (OVER THE LAST 3-4 GFS/ECMWF RUNS) BEING DEPICTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE MAY STILL EXPERIENCE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 MVFR TO IFR STRATUS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. SNOW WILL LAG THE CLOUDS BY A FEW HOURS AT KJMS/KMOT/KBIS. SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT AND TIMING OF SNOWFALL. THEREAFTER...LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BECOME NORTHERLY...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JV SHORT TERM...SCHECK LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
650 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT. WINDY AND FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. COLDER THAN NORMAL WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... STARTED TO TRIM BACK THE ADVISORY AND WARNING FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS/FORECAST. FROM EARLIER... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FIELDS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT/S STEADY AS SHE GOES WITH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MEAN ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL QPF. OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWFALL AND SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT INDICATE ABOUT A 15:1 RATIO SO FAR. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD SEE THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY STEADILY DECREASE OVER CENTRAL AND SWRN PENN...WITH THE STEADIEST /AND MDT TO OCNLY HEAVY/ SNOW BECOMING CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...AT THE NW EDGE OF A FAIRLY PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH 1-2SM VSBYS THROUGH 00-02Z ACROSS ERN YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTY...BEFORE ENDING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE. AS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING WIND...AND LOWERING WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT THE REGION...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COMPLICATING MATTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TOTALS /RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR. A FEW SPOTS IN OUR FAR SE CWA COULD SEE 9 OR 10 INCHES. PLEASE REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE COME IN FROM YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS SO FAR. TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOUR WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN TIER...TEENS THROUGHOUT MOST OF CENTRAL PENN...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SE METRO AREAS. THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE FROM NW TO SE EARLY TONIGHT...AS DEEP DRY/FRIGID AIR PUSHES INTO THE COMMONWEALTH. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHALLOW STRATO CU AND -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES. BUFKIT NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO AROUND 25KTS BY THIS EVENING EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK ABOUT 20-30 DEG OVERNIGHT TO A MORE NORTH TO NNW DIRECTION /AND INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5-10 KTS/. GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NW. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND BITTER COLD TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO 15F IN THE SE TO AROUND -20F ACROSS THE NW MTNS. LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND -5F ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. BUNDLE UP. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... DESPITE A BITTER COLD NW FLOW...A FROZEN LK ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW INVERSION HGT AND BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ABSENCE OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD CREATE BKN STRATOCU AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MCLEAR SKIES APPEAR LIKELY EAST/DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850TEMPS OF ARND -20C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM ARND 5 ABV ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO JUST THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX PERSISTING THRU THE MED RANGE FCST...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE EARLY THURSDAY...AND SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...BASED ON TIMING OF ALL MED RANGE MDLS. INCREASING MDL SPREAD MAKES TIMING OF THIRD SHORTWAVE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...MON/TUE. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF COLD WX MAY COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA. HOWEVER COLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SNOW ACROSS THE SE...AT MDT AND LNS. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO WED AFT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE BFD AND PERHAPS JST...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CLDS AND SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AT THESE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO WED. IT WILL BE WINDY AS WELL INTO WED...AS COASTAL LOW DEEPENS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SE WED NIGHT INTO THU...WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO BFD AND JST ON THU. UNLIKE THIS EVENT...WINDS ALOFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THUS EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SQUALLS INTO BFD AND JST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFT...AS LARGE LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA SHIFTS THE WIND TO THE WEST...AND MILDER AIR MOVES IN. MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS MORE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW. OUTLOOK... THU...MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF -SHSN. FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX. SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN. SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ056-058. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ036- 057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1140 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 411 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 ON THE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS EVIDENT ON THE OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS BACKDOOR ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ELONGATED UPPER WAVE WITH ONE CENTER IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A SECOND IN NORTH DAKOTA...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY A THIRD IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. EXTREMELY COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM DEALING WITH CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE...POP DISTRIBUTION...AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE. TIMING OF BOUNDARY HAS COME INTO A CLEARER FOCUS ON 00Z/06Z SOLUTION SETS...BACKING TO HURON/SIOUX FALLS/SPENCER LINE BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 18Z...THEN CONTINUING A QUICKENING PACE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOCATION IS IMPORTANT AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POST FRONTAL...AND TO CONSIDER LOCATIONS WITH GREATER POTENTIAL TO WARM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WIND IS THE FIRST FEATURE OF THE SYSTEM TODAY. WILL BE FAIRLY WELL MIXED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL SEE 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATER MORNING AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC MISSOURI VALLEY TRACK TO STRONGEST OFF SURFACE WIND CORE FROM 925 TO 850 HPA. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING MASSIVE PRESSURE RISES OF 8-12 HPA/3H ASSOCIATED WITH THE FINAL WAVE WHICH TIMES OUT TO DIG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PROVIDE A STRONG PULSE TO WINDS WHICH WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THEN INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY END UP HAVING TO ADD COUPLE MORE TIERS OF COUNTIES EASTWARD INTO THE WIND ADVISORY IF TRENDS IN 06Z NAM WIND/PRESSURE TENDENCY CONTINUE TO BECOME EVIDENT. NO REASON TO DOUBT WITH 9-10 HPA/3H RISES ON CURRENT ANALYSIS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DID SLOW UP THE ONSET SOME EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WILL GET A STRONG COOLING AND SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. LIFT PROVIDED PRIMARILY WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR...A SHALLOW FORCING. COULD BE A LITTLE BROADENING OF THE PRECIP AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH PASSAGE OF THIRD UPPER WAVE ENERGY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FLAVOR OF THE SNOW DISTRIBUTION IS TIED TO THE 925-850 HPA FRONTOGENESIS. WILL LIKELY END UP WITH A BAND OF A INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL SD INTO NW IA...TAPERING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE MELTED TO SNOW FREE PRIOR TO SNOWFALL TODAY...AND GREATER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS. CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WITH A PERSISTENT MODEST WEST NORTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS. WILL HAVE THESE CLOUDS THIN SOMEWHAT LATE IN CURRENT NIGHT...AND IF WINDS DROP A BIT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN. HIGHS UP NORTH ARE CERTAINLY GOING TO BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN SEE A DRASTIC PLUNGE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY. COMPLEX FORECAST AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WARM IT MAY GET AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR PUSH THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY...WITH WARMEST SOLUTION IN RAP SUGGESTING SOME LOWER TO MID 40S ARE AN EASY REACH. MADE SOME DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY...WARMING UP SOME LOCATIONS 7-10 DEGREES FROM EARLIER FORECAST...AND EVEN UP A HALF DOZEN IN THE NORTH IN PLACES WITH HOPES THAT DO NOT GET TOO MUCH OF A LATE NIGHT DIP. FINALLY...WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT FROM JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR IN SD TO JUST EAST OF IT AROUND KSUX. WHILE REALIZE THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL KICK INTO CRITERIA A BIT SOONER AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS LATER...BUT STARTED ALL LOCATIONS UP AT THE SAME TIME FOR SIMPLICITY. DID THROUGH DROP OFF THE WESTERN HALF LATE AT NIGHT GIVEN THE SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE AND LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT WINDS...COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST IN SW MN AND NW IA. EVEN WITHOUT WINDS...WILL SEE SOME LOWS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT ALSO SHOULD START TO GET SOME MODIFICATION TO READINGS LATER IN THE WEST WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THICKER HIGH CLOUDS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 411 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 A VERY COLD START TO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. SOME WARMING WILL TRY TO DEVELOP BUT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS THE STUBBORN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT THE PUSH OF WARMER AIR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM ABOUT THE MID 30S NEAR GREGORY SD TO NEAR 10 ABOVE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR OVERNIGHT BUT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RISE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THOSE CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR ZERO IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO NEAR 20 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR BUT ONLY IN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH. IN FACT...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY DARN COLD AS A 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. AND WITH WEAK MIXING ON THURSDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SPOTS WITH 15 TO 20 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. IN THE OUTER PERIODS...FRI/SUN...A FAIRLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REESTABLISHES WHICH KEEPS THE AREA WITHIN A VARIABLE THERMAL REGIME. WILL NOT LEAN HARD IN ANY ONE DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT IS LARGE ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA THAT THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY WAVE WILL MAKE POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE DIFFERENCES. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY BUT THIS LIKE THE TEMPERATURES IS A BIT VARIABLE SO NO BIG CHANCES NOR ANY THREAT FOR ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 ARCTIC BOUNDARY SURGING SOUTH WITH SNOWFALL TEMPERARILY REDUCING VISILITY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS. CEILINGS WILL ALSO TUMBLE INTO THE MVFR IF NOT BRIEFLY THE IFR CATEGORY...BEFORE IMPROVING AGAIN THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS EVENING. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ050-052-053- 057>060-063>065-068>071. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ039-040-055-056-062-067. MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-097-098. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090. IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ020-031. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001-012. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032. NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ013-014. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
627 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 411 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 ON THE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS EVIDENT ON THE OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS BACKDOOR ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ELONGATED UPPER WAVE WITH ONE CENTER IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A SECOND IN NORTH DAKOTA...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY A THIRD IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. EXTREMELY COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM DEALING WITH CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE...POP DISTRIBUTION...AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE. TIMING OF BOUNDARY HAS COME INTO A CLEARER FOCUS ON 00Z/06Z SOLUTION SETS...BACKING TO HURON/SIOUX FALLS/SPENCER LINE BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 18Z...THEN CONTINUING A QUICKENING PACE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOCATION IS IMPORTANT AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POST FRONTAL...AND TO CONSIDER LOCATIONS WITH GREATER POTENTIAL TO WARM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WIND IS THE FIRST FEATURE OF THE SYSTEM TODAY. WILL BE FAIRLY WELL MIXED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL SEE 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATER MORNING AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC MISSOURI VALLEY TRACK TO STRONGEST OFF SURFACE WIND CORE FROM 925 TO 850 HPA. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING MASSIVE PRESSURE RISES OF 8-12 HPA/3H ASSOCIATED WITH THE FINAL WAVE WHICH TIMES OUT TO DIG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PROVIDE A STRONG PULSE TO WINDS WHICH WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THEN INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY END UP HAVING TO ADD COUPLE MORE TIERS OF COUNTIES EASTWARD INTO THE WIND ADVISORY IF TRENDS IN 06Z NAM WIND/PRESSURE TENDENCY CONTINUE TO BECOME EVIDENT. NO REASON TO DOUBT WITH 9-10 HPA/3H RISES ON CURRENT ANALYSIS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DID SLOW UP THE ONSET SOME EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WILL GET A STRONG COOLING AND SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. LIFT PROVIDED PRIMARILY WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR...A SHALLOW FORCING. COULD BE A LITTLE BROADENING OF THE PRECIP AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH PASSAGE OF THIRD UPPER WAVE ENERGY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FLAVOR OF THE SNOW DISTRIBUTION IS TIED TO THE 925-850 HPA FRONTOGENESIS. WILL LIKELY END UP WITH A BAND OF A INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL SD INTO NW IA...TAPERING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE MELTED TO SNOW FREE PRIOR TO SNOWFALL TODAY...AND GREATER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS. CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WITH A PERSISTENT MODEST WEST NORTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS. WILL HAVE THESE CLOUDS THIN SOMEWHAT LATE IN CURRENT NIGHT...AND IF WINDS DROP A BIT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN. HIGHS UP NORTH ARE CERTAINLY GOING TO BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN SEE A DRASTIC PLUNGE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY. COMPLEX FORECAST AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WARM IT MAY GET AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR PUSH THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY...WITH WARMEST SOLUTION IN RAP SUGGESTING SOME LOWER TO MID 40S ARE AN EASY REACH. MADE SOME DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY...WARMING UP SOME LOCATIONS 7-10 DEGREES FROM EARLIER FORECAST...AND EVEN UP A HALF DOZEN IN THE NORTH IN PLACES WITH HOPES THAT DO NOT GET TOO MUCH OF A LATE NIGHT DIP. FINALLY...WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT FROM JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR IN SD TO JUST EAST OF IT AROUND KSUX. WHILE REALIZE THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL KICK INTO CRITERIA A BIT SOONER AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS LATER...BUT STARTED ALL LOCATIONS UP AT THE SAME TIME FOR SIMPLICITY. DID THROUGH DROP OFF THE WESTERN HALF LATE AT NIGHT GIVEN THE SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE AND LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT WINDS...COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST IN SW MN AND NW IA. EVEN WITHOUT WINDS...WILL SEE SOME LOWS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT ALSO SHOULD START TO GET SOME MODIFICATION TO READINGS LATER IN THE WEST WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THICKER HIGH CLOUDS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 411 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 A VERY COLD START TO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. SOME WARMING WILL TRY TO DEVELOP BUT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS THE STUBBORN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT THE PUSH OF WARMER AIR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM ABOUT THE MID 30S NEAR GREGORY SD TO NEAR 10 ABOVE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR OVERNIGHT BUT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RISE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THOSE CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR ZERO IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO NEAR 20 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR BUT ONLY IN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH. IN FACT...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY DARN COLD AS A 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. AND WITH WEAK MIXING ON THURSDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SPOTS WITH 15 TO 20 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. IN THE OUTER PERIODS...FRI/SUN...A FAIRLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REESTABLISHES WHICH KEEPS THE AREA WITHIN A VARIABLE THERMAL REGIME. WILL NOT LEAN HARD IN ANY ONE DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT IS LARGE ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA THAT THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY WAVE WILL MAKE POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE DIFFERENCES. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY BUT THIS LIKE THE TEMPERATURES IS A BIT VARIABLE SO NO BIG CHANCES NOR ANY THREAT FOR ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 614 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 VERY COMPLEX AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING FROM NORTHERN SD INTO CENTRAL IA...AND ARCTIC BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. LIFR STRATUS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND THERE WILL ALSO BE AN AREA OF SNOWFALL WORKING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 2 MILES ON THE AVERAGE...PERHAPS BRIEFLY 1/2 MILE... FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS WILL ALSO EXCEED 35 KNOTS FOR KHON/KFSD AND KSUX BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND EVEN EARLY EVENING AT KSUX. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ050-057-058-063-064-068-069. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ039-040-055-056-062-067. MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-097-098. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090. IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001-012. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
412 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 411 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 ON THE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS EVIDENT ON THE OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS BACKDOOR ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ELONGATED UPPER WAVE WITH ONE CENTER IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A SECOND IN NORTH DAKOTA...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY A THIRD IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. EXTREMELY COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM DEALING WITH CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE...POP DISTRIBUTION...AND WIND ASSOSICATED WITH THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE. TIMING OF BOUNDARY HAS COME INTO A CLEARER FOCUS ON 00Z/06Z SOLUTION SETS...BACKING TO HURON/SIOUX FALLS/SPENCER LINE BEHIND WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 18Z...THEN CONTINUING A QUICKENING PACE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOCATION IS IMPORTANT AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POST FRONTAL...AND TO CONSIDER LOCATIONS WITH GREATER POTENTIAL TO WARM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WIND IS THE FIRST FEATURE OF THE SYSTEM TODAY. WILL BE FAIRLY WELL MIXED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL SEE 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATER MORNING AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC MISSOURI VALLEY TRACK TO STRONGEST OFF SURFACE WIND CORE FROM 925 TO 850 HPA. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING MASSIVE PRESSURE RISES OF 8-12 HPA/3H ASSOCIATED WITH THE FINAL WAVE WHICH TIMES OUT TO DIG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PROVIDE A STRONG PULSE TO WINDS WHICH WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...THEN INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY END UP HAVING TO ADD COUPLE MORE TIERS OF COUNTIES EASTWARD INTO THE WIND ADVISORY IF TRENDS IN 06Z NAM WIND/PRESSURE TENDENCY CONTINUE TO BECOME EVIDENT. NO REASON TO DOUBT WITH 9-10 HPA/3H RISES ON CURRENT ANALYSIS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DID SLOW UP THE ONSET SOME EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WILL GET A STRONG COOLING AND SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE. LIFT PROVIDED PRIMARILY WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR...A SHALLOW FORCING. COULD BE A LITTLE BROADENING OF THE PRECIP AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH PASSAGE OF THIRD UPPER WAVE ENERGY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FLAVOR OF THE SNOW DISTRIBUTION IS TIED TO THE 925-850 HPA FRONTOGENESIS. WILL LIKELY END UP WITH A BAND OF A INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL SD INTO NW IA...TAPERING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE MELTED TO SNOW FREE PRIOR TO SNOWFALL TODAY...AND GREATER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS. CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WITH A PERSISTENT MODEST WEST NORTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS. WILL HAVE THESE CLOUDS THIN SOMEWHAT LATE IN CURRENT NIGHT...AND IF WINDS DROP A BIT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN. HIGHS UP NORTH ARE CERTAINLY GOING TO BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN SEE A DRASTIC PLUNGE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY. COMPLEX FORECAST AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WARM IT MAY GET AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR PUSH THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY...WITH WARMEST SOLUTION IN RAP SUGGESTING SOME LOWER TO MID 40S ARE AN EASY REACH. MADE SOME DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY...WARMING UP SOME LOCATIONS 7-10 DEGREES FROM EARLIER FORECAST...AND EVEN UP A HALF DOZEN IN THE NORTH IN PLACES WITH HOPES THAT DO NOT GET TOO MUCH OF A LATE NIGHT DIP. FINALLY...WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT FROM JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR IN SD TO JUST EAST OF IT AROUND KSUX. WHILE REALIZE THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL KICK INTO CRITERIA A BIT SOONER AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS LATER...BUT STARTED ALL LOCATIONS UP AT THE SAME TIME FOR SIMPLICITY. DID THROUGH DROP OFF THE WESTERN HALF LATE AT NIGHT GIVEN THE SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE AND LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT WINDS...COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST IN SW MN AND NW IA. EVEN WITHOUT WINDS...WILL SEE SOME LOWS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT ALSO SHOULD START TO GET SOME MODIFICATION TO READINGS LATER IN THE WEST WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THICKER HIGH CLOUDS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 411 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 A VERY COLD START TO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. SOME WARMING WILL TRY TO DEVELOP BUT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS THE STUBBORN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT THE PUSH OF WARMER AIR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM ABOUT THE MID 30S NEAR GREGORY SD TO NEAR 10 ABOVE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR OVERNIGHT BUT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RISE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THOSE CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR ZERO IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO NEAR 20 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR BUT ONLY IN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH. IN FACT...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY DARN COLD AS A 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. AND WITH WEAK MIXING ON THURSDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SPOTS WITH 15 TO 20 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. IN THE OUTER PERIODS...FRI/SUN...A FAIRLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REESTABLISHES WHICH KEEPS THE AREA WITHIN A VARIABLE THERMAL REGIME. WILL NOT LEAN HARD IN ANY ONE DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT IS LARGE ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA THAT THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY WAVE WILL MAKE POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE DIFFERENCES. OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY BUT THIS LIKE THE TEMPERATURES IS A BIT VARIABLE SO NO BIG CHANCES NOR ANY THREAT FOR ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER 09Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z ON MONDAY...CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ050-057-058-063-064-068-069. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ039-040-055-056-062-067. MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-097-098. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090. IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001-012. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...JM
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
808 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 808 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE SNOW THAT IS ENTERING THE AREA AND WITH HOW MUCH WILL FALL. STARTING TO HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO SEE AS MUCH AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY...THE FIRST WAVE IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. VISIBILITIES ARE ONLY AROUND 4SM RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. THAT WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FIRST BAND. THE SECOND WAVE IS THE MORE POTENT WAVE AND WILL COME THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT WHAT IS COMING OUR WAY...MANY OF THE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA ARE IN THE 2SM RANGE AND IS ONLY OVER A NARROW SWATH. THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE NOT BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE REFLECTIVITY TRENDS BUT AT LEAST MIRROR WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. WHILE THE LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS DECENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT...WOULD REALLY PREFER TO SEE A TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TO GET INTO THE HEAVIER SNOWS. WHILE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE...QPF STILL LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT AROUND 0.05". AT THIS POINT...THINKING THAT 3" LOOKS LIKE A HIGH MARK TO HIT FROM THIS SNOW WITH 2" OR LESS LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING AIM ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH SLIDING THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. GOOD QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. THERMODYNAMICS ARE ALSO GOOD...WITH 925-700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K SFCS LEADING THE CHARGE - MAXED IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. SATURATION ISN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT DEEP ENOUGH PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. MOST FAVORABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WITH THIS AMPLE FORCING AND SUFFICIENT SATURATION...THE AREA CAN EXPECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AS FOR HOW MUCH...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS VIA THE NAM AND GFS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONE GROWTH REGION FROM THE SFC TO NEARLY 8 KFT FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK LIFT DURING THIS TIME. BIG...FLUFFY FLAKES ARE LIKELY...AND RAPID ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY THOUGH...AND QPF IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THIS WILL HOLD DOWN THE AMOUNTS. SNOW RATIOS OF 20/30 TO 1 STILL LOOK GOOD...RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 INCHES TOTALS. WINDS ARE GOING TO PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IOWA...AND AREA RIDGE-TOPS. NOT SURE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SO COVER THESE IMPACTS...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SWEEPS IN WITH THE TROUGH AND PASSING SFC COLD FRONT WED MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS FROM THE MORNING READINGS. CLOUDS COULD LINGER FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EAST FOR A BETTER PART OF THE WED NIGHT...INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT LOWS SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT FROM THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COUPLE THIS WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 25 TO 35 BELOW OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH THU MORNING. ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED - OR PERHAPS WINTER WEATHER ADV IF BLOWING SNOW IS AN ISSUE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 GOOD CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS - GFS/ECMWF/GEM - WITH DROPPING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION. BOTH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...AND COULD SEE TWO SEPARATE BANDS SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SATURATION ISN/T THAT GREAT...AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...WHICH WILL KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN. HARD TO QUANTIFY AT THIS TIME...BUT LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR LESS AT THIS MOMENT. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES FOR FRIDAY...AND HIGHS COULD VENTURE BACK TO THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE RETURN WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THE STRONGER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. 850 MB TEMPS WOULD DROP TO -24 C ON SAT VIA THE GFS. HIGHS ON SAT COULD OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY/FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. MIGHT AS WELL JUMP ON THE WAVE TRAIN...AS YOUR TICKET HAS ALREADY BEEN PUNCHED. WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD SLIP ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN. TIMING AND POSITIONING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/IF IT WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WHEREVER IT TRACKS...SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RESULT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 553 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW IS WITH THE SNOW ABOUT TO REACH THE REGION FOLLOWED BY HOW MUCH BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AFTER A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH. LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND IS TRACKING TO THE EAST. VISIBILITY IS MAINLY AROUND 4SM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW FURTHER WEST WHERE VIS IS AROUND 1 TO 2SM. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKENING TO THIS BAND AS IT TRACKS EAST THIS EVENING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF SNOW COMING IN JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN BETWEEN THE SNOW BANDS TONIGHT THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINLY STAY AT LEAST MVFR. START UP TIME FOR THE SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AROUND 2Z AT RST AND 5Z AT LSE WITH IT ENDING AROUND DAY BREAK TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AND MARKS THE END OF THE MAIN SNOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE AND CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW AT RST. HOW LOW CONDITIONS GO IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...THEY SHOULD STAY AT LEAST MVFR WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBACH SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
343 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014 .TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THREE MAIN ISSUES TO ZERO IN ON. FIRST IS THE ENDING OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR THE NE EXTENT OF SNOW SWATH. WILL BASE FORECAST ON RADAR ANIMATION BRINGING A STEADIER SNOW BAND ACROSS SW 1/2 OF CWA. SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING EXPECTED TO LOSE INFLUENCE BEYOND MID EVENING OR SO. UPSTREAM VSBYS IN THE MAIN BAND 1-2SM SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. NEXT FOCUS IS ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A WINDOW OF BORDERLINE ONSHORE FLOW EVOLVING VCNTY MID LAKE EAST OF KMTW. DELTA T RISES AS HIGH AS 20-22 WITH THE ARCTIC INVASION WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO NEAR 7K FEET. HOWEVER FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION. 4KM WRF SHOWS THE BAND STAYING JUST EAST OF THE SHORE WITH THE THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF BRUSHING THE FAR SE CORNER. WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING IN THE FAR SE LATER IN THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL. LAST CONCERN BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST IS THE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO DROP AS LOW AS -19 TO -21C WITH 25 KNOTS. WITH WIND CHILLS PROGGD TO REACH -20 IN AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTIES...WILL EXPAND WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. COORD WITH KLOT ON THIS. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AT THE OUTSET. PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGD TO STILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT THOUGH GRADUALLY EASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO WRN WI. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. COLD THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS -17 TO -19C. .SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY...AND BEING ABSORBED BY...A STRONGER WAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY EVENING DRY THEN BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS INTO ALL BUT THE FAR EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH MAINLY ISENTROPIC FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD WAVE...AND WENT WITH CONSENSUS BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY AS MAIN SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH. MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS ALL MODELS BUT THE NAM CURRENTLY LIMITING SNOW AFTER 18Z TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES....WHICH IS WHY THE CONSENSUS BLEND SHOWS NO BETTER THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD...SO RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE MORNING AND DROP THEM TO SLIGHTS IN THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR LOWS AROUND 12 MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERN TIP OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER AREA...THEN TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. APPARENT TEMPERATURES APPROACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA AROUND 06Z THEN RISE WITH THE TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER NOON THEN FALLING TEMPS AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. ARCTIC AIR STREAMS BACK IN ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AS BROAD HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY. 925 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING BELOW ZERO EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKESHORE...AND CLOSE TO 10 BELOW IN THE FAR WEST. EXPECT TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE STIFF WINDS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER CLOSED 500 MB LOW DOWN TOWARD JAMES BAY FRIDAY WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO MODIFY 925MB-850 MB TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY....THOUGH BELOW ZERO LOWS AND WEST WINDS BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THURSDAY NIGHT. NON-DIURNAL TRENDS TO TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF TROUGH DROPPING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 24 HOUR HIGHS REACHED LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING FRIDAY...AND BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY. CHANCE OF SNOW AS COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS...ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL KEEP THE LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND BRUSHING AREAS FROM KMKE SOUTHWARD. GRADUAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RH LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE...WITH NORTH WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL GO AHEAD AND START THE SMALL CRAFT WITH THE MID AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. IN ADDITION EXPECTING A PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH SURFACE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ046- 047-051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...99 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
340 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... 320 AM CST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... WHEN TRYING TO DESCRIBE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...IT IS SIMILAR TO A CAR STUCK IN NEUTRAL. THE ENGINE STARTS UP...BUT DOESN`T GO ANYWHERE. MOTHER NATURE CLEARLY HAS DECIDED TO LOCK THE REGION INTO A COLD PATTERN...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE PROGGED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SO IF YOU ENJOYED THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...GOOD NEWS...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. ALAS WE ARE WITHIN TWO WEEKS OF SEEING WHAT A SPECIAL GROUNDHOG WILL PREDICT. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN RELATIVELY QUIET...HOWEVER THIS WILL MERELY BE A TEASE AS A CLIPPER CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE ACROSS WISC SPREADING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS NEXT WAVE HAVE STRENGTHENED MARGINALLY...WITH A NARROW CHANNEL OF MOISTENING/ASCENDING PARCELS INTO A FAVORABLE DGZ. THE BEST AREA FOR LIGHT ACCUMUS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A DIXON TO KANKAKEE TO FOWLER LINE...WITH GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.0 SNOWFALL. SOUTH OF THIS LINE UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE...MEANWHILE A NARROW AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST IL COULD SEE UP TO 2.0 INCHES OF FRESH POWDERY SNOWFALL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE LINGERING POTENT THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THAT TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM WITH WINDS HAVING BECOME SOUTHERLY. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS. CLIPPER WILL PUSH INTO WESTCENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...WITH A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. A SHARP INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT AS A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...AND UNFORTUNATELY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO TO ARND 0 NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND WELL BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS WEST OF I-355. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 30-35 MPH AND FORECAST TEMPS...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO ARND -20 TO -25 TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY IN FORECAST TEMPS/WINDS...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY/FORECAST...HIGH. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WHILE THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...THE EFFECTS WILL LINGER WITH CLOUDS HOLDING THRU THUR MORNING BEFORE THE STRONG SFC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO ERODE THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THE AFTN HOURS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA THUR...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS IN THE FAR WESTERN CWFA STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO THUR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY THUR...HOWEVER NOT AS POTENT AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS IT APPEARS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE CRITERIA TO -5 TO -15 DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED UP WITH YET ANOTHER BLUSTERY NIGHT HEADING INTO FRI. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY THUR EVENING...ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ALOFT WILL STEADILY WARM THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT STARTING ARND -20 DEG C TO ARND -9 DEG C BY DAYBREAK FRI. WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CHALLENGE FOR SFC TEMPS...AND CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THUR EVE BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND AFT MIDNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNS THUR NGT/EARLY FRI...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING WIND CHILL VALUES BACK TO AT LEAST -20 TO -25 TO POSSIBLY NEARING -30 DEG F BY MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SO DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST ANY WIND CHILL WATCH YET. ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES EAST ACROSS MANITOBA TOWARDS JAMES BAY FRI...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL FRI NGT. PRIOR TO FROPA...WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS COULD SEE A QUICK BUMP INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPR 20S FRI...AND THAT MAY EVEN BE A TAD TOO CONSERVATIVE. WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A HANDFUL OF POINTS TAG 30-32 DEGREES...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATE WEEK WAVE...INDICATING SNOW ACCUMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT RATIOS WILL HOVER IN THE 20:1 TO 25:1...WITH POSSIBLY 1-3" OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK SAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A DIXON IL TO FOWLER IN LINE. CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THUR NGT...HIGH. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PATTERN...HOWEVER SOME MINOR RELAXING MAY TAKE PLACE TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIODS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THROUGH AT LEAST MON...THE WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WILL FLIRT WITH +4 SIGMA. THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LOCKS THE TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS HAVE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR SUN...AND PRESENTLY IS EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED MARGINALLY WITH THE RECENT CYCLES BEGINNING TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS FAVORABLE ON THE NOSE OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH A FLATTENING IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. THIS MAY BE AN EARLY INDICATION THAT AN FGEN BAND COULD DEVELOP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS YET AGAIN DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT AND STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW SUN...MEDIUM/HIGH. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS. * PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE. * COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...AND WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VIS AND CONTAMINATE PLOWED SURFACES. KJB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS SET TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THE SNOW COULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT SETS UP IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST TIME FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED...SO I DID NOT STRAY FROM THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE BETTER SNOWFALL. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS AND A HOUR OR SO SOONER AT KRFD. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KT FOR A PERIOD. THESE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. DUE TO THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF BLSN...EVEN AFTER THE SNOW STOPS FALLING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...BUT LIKELY NOT BELOW 5SM. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GRADUAL LOWERING VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/IMPACTS OF SNOW ON VIS/CIG CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD. KJB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF ORD/MDW. FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WITH BLOWING SNOW LIKELY...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. MONDAY...VFR. RATZER/KB && .MARINE... 339 AM CST A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL HEADLINE WORTHY WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE LAKE. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE LAKE...A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL SETUP SOME GALE FORCE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. THEREFORE I UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND MOVED IT UP A FEW HOURS. I ALSO INCLUDED MY INDIANA NEAR SHORES IN THIS WARNING...AS IT APPEARS A NARROW CHANNEL OF STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40 KT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LAND-LAKE CONVERGENCE LAKE EFFECT BAND. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF GALES ALONG MY ILLINOIS NEAR SHORES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT HERE...I FELT BETTER GOING WITH A 30 KT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND MENTIONING SOME 35 KT GALE FORCE GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ABATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG GALES WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS EVENT AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HIGH END SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF 45 KT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY ON BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EVEN OCCUR WITH THIS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. I HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. A GALE WATCH OR STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT. IF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY GALES UP TO 40 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744- LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 330 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 308 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014 Will issue a wind chill advisory across central and southeast IL from 9 pm this evening through noon on Thursday for wind chills between 15 and 25 below zero. Northern areas will come close to wind chill warning criteria of 25 below zero or colder late tonight into mid morning Thursday. A wind chill advisory may be needed again Thurday night into mid morning Friday. SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night A long wave upper level trof will remain over the eastern states through next week with temps staying below normal, though some brief modification this weekend. Series of clipper systems/ northern stream short waves will continue to dive se into the region every few days bring periodic chances of light snow. 1st one to mainly pass to our ne today and then next one arriving Friday night and another one on Sunday with better chance of light snow accumulations Friday night and Sunday. 504 dm 500 mb low between Hudson Bay and Lake Superior will send a northern stream short wave/clipper se into the great lakes region today. Central IL will be on the sw fringe of this system and only expect a chance of light snow or flurries today with light dusting from I-74 ne. Short wave quickly exits se into the upper ohio river valley while 1048 mb arctic high pressure settles into the central Plains Thu and into AR/western TN by dawn Friday. Arctic cold front passes se through central IL this afternoon with brisk nw winds behind the front driving down wind chills. Arctic air mass in place through Friday morning to ensure wind chills of 15 to 25 below zero after 9 pm this evening, though se counties will likely not reach the criteria until during overnight and continue Thu morning. AReas from I-74 north could see wind chills reach 25 below zero or colder for a few hours late tonight into mid morning Thu and may need to upgrade to a wind chill warning. Another very cold night expected Thursday night with lows zero to 5 below zero while wind chills back down to 15 to 23 below zero Thu night into mid morning Friday. Increased sw winds Friday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely and helping to raise temps into the mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with sw areas 30-32F by Jacksonville and west. Another strong clipper system dives into the Great Lakes region Friday night and appears to bring better chances of light snow accumulations to central IL with up to 1 inch possible and possibly a bit nore ne of I-74. Will be windy with some blowing of this snow Friday night into Saturday morning as light snow diminishes then. Highs Sat range from mid 20s north of Peoria to 30-35F from I-72 south. LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday Yet another clipper system to bring a chance of light snow to the IL river valley overnight Sat night and across the area on Sunday as it moves into the great lakes region. Could be light snow accumulations again near 1 inch or less especilly from I-74 ne. Highs Sunday in the upper 20s ne and 30-35F sw areas. Then another surge of arctic air to arrive early next work week and wind chills could reach 15 to 20 below zero Monday night. The 8-14 day outlook through Feb 4 continues 50-65% chance of below normal temperatures and 40% chance of above normal precipitation which would likely fall as more snow. 07 && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1105 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014 Main forecast challenge will be if cigs drop to MVFR Wednesday afternoon and evening behind another strong surge of Arctic air. Cloud bases continue to slowly lower late this evening and expect this trend to continue overnight as another fast moving weather system approaches our area from the northwest. Already seeing some isolated flurries being reported over parts of central and eastern Iowa in advance of the upper wave. Coverage of activity out to our west is quite limited and based on the 00Z ILX sounding, the dry atmosphere present in our area may keep the flurries from being much of a factor thru most of this forecast period. A few models suggest cigs may lower to MVFR after the cold frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. Both the HRRR and RAP models indicate cig bases will lower to between 3000-3500 feet by afternoon just behind the cold front. We trended in that direction with the 00z forecast and see no strong evidence at this point to make any significant changes. Another concern will be with the gusty northwest winds that will be dominant behind the Arctic cold front tomorrow afternoon thru tomorrow night. Initially, surface winds will be light southerly late tonight, and then south to southwest at 10 to 15 kts tomorrow morning. Just after FROPA, expect northwest winds to prevail at 12 to 17 kts with Bufkit soundings indicating gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Smith && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to Noon CST Thursday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1148 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 .DISCUSSION... 913 PM CST FOR EVENING UPDATE... HAVE CANCELLED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER COUNTY PRIOR TO ITS ORIGINAL MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION...AS LAKE SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 03Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING EAST ACROSS IL...WITH DIMINISHING/BACKING WINDS HELPING TO ALLOW EARLIER STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOW WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE LINGERS INTO NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY...THOUGH REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND EXPECT CONTINUED DECAY AS RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND JUST ALOFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST. OVER NORTHERN IL...EARLIER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVER SNOW COVER HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY SPOTS AWAY FROM CHICAGO...THOUGH INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW THESE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAKER MEMBER OF A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH THE IL/WI STATE LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN/NORTH CENTRAL IL BY SUNRISE. HAVE PUSHED THE START OF POPS BACK JUST A LITTLE FROM 06-09Z IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS/TSECTS...WHICH INDICATE SOME MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS MUST OCCUR FIRST AS LARGE SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO INCREASE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES MADE INTO TOMORROW. RATZER //PREV DISCUSSION... 322 PM CST SYNOPSIS...BUSY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE CLIPPER COUNT CONTINUING TO INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES AND UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHARP RIDGING IS STRETCHED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A CORRIDOR OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS RATHER SUBTLE BUT PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE NEXT WAVE IS MORE ORGANIZED AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. OVERALL THIS SAME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TRACKS OF THE VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS WILL VARY QUITE A BIT. LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...FIRST UP IS CONTINUING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA. SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAS BEGUN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWING AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE BAND FURTHER UP THE LAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS KEEPING A STEADIER NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION...WHILE THE FLOW TO THE EAST HAS BEEN WEAKER AND MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MESOSCALE LAKE INFLUENCES. AS A RESULT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND HAS BEEN ORIENTED TO THE SOUTHWEST KEEPING IT ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS/EDDIES MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAND WHICH HAVE BEEN HELPING THE BAND TO UNDULATE BACK AND FORTH FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT THE INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE BAND SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A MORE PRONOUNCED TRACK TO THE EAST...THOUGH THIS MAY BE GRADUAL. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WITH THE WEAK FLOW REGIME OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE... LAND BREEZE PROCESS MAY TAKE OVER AND HELP UNDULATE THE BAND BACK WEST AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. DO EXPECT THAT THE WESTERLY AND EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH THE CONVERGENCE BACK OFFSHORE SOME TIME LATE THIS EVENING BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR. WITH ALL OF THIS WILL LET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUE UNTIL 5 PM CST FOR LAKE COUNTY WITH THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO PORTER BY ABOUT THAT TIME. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR PORTER AND EXTEND IT UNTIL MIDNIGHT THINKING THAT SNOW COVERAGE MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE/BECOME MORE BROKEN WITH TIME. INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY STILL OCCUR...BUT THEY MAY BE FOR A SHORTER DURATION. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS...WITH SOME CHANCE PORTER WOULD NEED TO BE UPGRADED IF THE REFLECTIVITY REMAINS PERSISTENT AND THAT LAKE COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED. MDB/ED F TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE ARRIVING EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS PRONOUNCED THAN IT CURRENTLY IS. THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD BE CENTERED ABOVE THE DENDRITIC ZONE GIVEN HOW LOW IT IS DUE TO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS FIRST WAVE OF FORCING WILL PUSH ACROSS DURING THE MORNING AND LOOKS TO BRING AROUND A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION TO MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME OF THE MORNING GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION GIVEN HOW FAR SOUTH IT EXTENDS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE CURRENT TIME...SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SNOW. THE BETTER ORGANIZED WAVE NOTED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL THEN PIVOT THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL IN TURN DRAG A SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SECOND ROUND OF SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER FORCING IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE SO A BRIEF BUT INTENSE PERIOD OF SNOW MAY RESULT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT TOO WITH A DRY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL AMOUNTS BY EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH AT THIS POINT BUT IF THE AFTERNOON SNOW IS MORE INTENSE THEN THIS MAY ITSELF BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES...ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE REACHED EARLY TONIGHT...IN THE 0 TO 7 OR 8 BELOW RANGE...BEFORE WARMING TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT SO WIND CHILLS LOOK TO BE JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH. HIGHS DO LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT INTO THE TEENS BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH LOWS BACK TO AROUND OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ALSO RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TURN WINDS NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE A STRONG HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPING WINDS FURTHER WEST NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR CONVERGENCE DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE ASCENT OVER THE LAKE AND THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN IT LOOKED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DURATION OF FAVORABLE WINDS LOOKS QUITE A BIT SHORTER THAN THE CURRENT EVENT. AS SEEN WITH THE CURRENT EVENT...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT WILL IMPACT THE WIND FIELD BEHIND IT AND ULTIMATELY THE PLACEMENT OF A LAKE BAND. SHOULD THE CURRENT TRACK HOLD THEN IT DOES APPEAR THAT SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A WESTWARD MOVING BAND THURSDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST SOME IMPACT POSSIBLE IN THE CWA. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS GIVEN WHAT NEEDS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THAT TIME AND THE RECENT DIFFICULTY OF GUIDANCE IN HANDLING OF SURFACE LOW TRACKS. OTHERWISE...BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE ARCTIC AIR AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND OF 5 TO 10 BELOW THURSDAY NIGHT TO CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO HEADLINE CRITERIA...WITH WARNINGS POSSIBLE. FRIDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS HUDSON BAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP BY FRIDAY MORNING COMBINING WITH WARMING ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THANKS TO THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. SEVERAL MORE CLIPPERS LOOK ON TRACK STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOKING POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MDB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS. * PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE. * COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...AND WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VIS AND CONTAMINATE PLOWED SURFACES. KJB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS SET TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THE SNOW COULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT SETS UP IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST TIME FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED...SO I DID NOT STRAY FROM THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE BETTER SNOWFALL. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS AND A HOUR OR SO SOONER AT KRFD. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KT FOR A PERIOD. THESE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. DUE TO THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF BLSN...EVEN AFTER THE SNOW STOPS FALLING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...BUT LIKELY NOT BELOW 5SM. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GRADUAL LOWERING VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/IMPACTS OF SNOW ON VIS/CIG CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD. KJB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF ORD/MDW. FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WITH BLOWING SNOW LIKELY...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. MONDAY...VFR. RATZER/KB && .MARINE... 426 PM CST MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ISSUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...GALES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE. A FAIRLY BUSY FORECAST PERIOD STARTED OFF WITH A DIMINISHING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THESE LIGHTER SPEEDS WILL BE OBSERVED TONIGHT BUT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NEW LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE AS WINDS BECOME MORE WEST NORTHWEST. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FURTHER AND GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777- LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1115 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 835 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014 High pressure centered over central Illinois early this evening will shift off to our east overnight allowing a light southerly wind to develop over the area. That combined with an increase in clouds will keep temperatures from falling off much further this evening, especially across the west. Latest surface observations out to our west indicate some flurries occurring over parts of central Iowa ahead of another quick moving upper level wave and associated cold front, which is slated to push across our area on Wednesday. That cold front will deliver another bone chilling cold air mass with dangerously cold wind chills Wednesday night through Thursday. Have made some changes to the early evening temperature trends across the forecast area as well as adding a slight chance for flurries well after midnight mainly over the west. Should have the updated zone forecast out by 900 pm. && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1105 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014 Main forecast challenge will be if cigs drop to MVFR Wednesday afternoon and evening behind another strong surge of Arctic air. Cloud bases continue to slowly lower late this evening and expect this trend to continue overnight as another fast moving weather system approaches our area from the northwest. Already seeing some isolated flurries being reported over parts of central and eastern Iowa in advance of the upper wave. Coverage of activity out to our west is quite limited and based on the 00Z ILX sounding, the dry atmosphere present in our area may keep the flurries from being much of a factor thru most of this forecast period. A few models suggest cigs may lower to MVFR after the cold frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. Both the HRRR and RAP models indicate cig bases will lower to between 3000-3500 feet by afternoon just behind the cold front. We trended in that direction with the 00z forecast and see no strong evidence at this point to make any significant changes. Another concern will be with the gusty northwest winds that will be dominant behind the Arctic cold front tomorrow afternoon thru tomorrow night. Initially, surface winds will be light southerly late tonight, and then south to southwest at 10 to 15 kts tomorrow morning. Just after FROPA, expect northwest winds to prevail at 12 to 17 kts with Bufkit soundings indicating gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Smith && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 240 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2014 Models continue to reflect the persistance of the longwave trough anchored over eastern North America. Occasional clippers bring light precip and reinforcing cold air to the upstream side of the trough in the northwest flow. Main differences in the models is the amount of moisture available with each of these weak systems and the amount of cold air surging into the area in the wake of each system. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday Quick northwest flow continues to produce a train of systems across the midwest. High pressure ridge extending from southwest Wisconsion into eastern Kansas this afternoon will move across Illinois this evening. The light winds, mostly clear skies, and cold airmass should enable temperatures to fall early this evening. After midnight, southerly winds are expected to develop on the backside of the ridge and ahead of the next weak clipper. With the winds picking up, temperatures should rise. There may be a brief period of time as the winds first start to increase where wind chills may drop to near advisory levels, but this period should be short-lived and a wind chill advisory will likely not be needed. The moisture-starved clipper system moves northeast of the forecast area on Wednesday. a few flurries will be possible with the best chances northeast of I-74. 12z NAM is the only model from the latest suite to indicate chance of measurable so will keep meantion as flurries. The system will trail a cold front through the area during the afternoon reinforcing the arctic air mass in place. Forecasted temperatures at 850 mb drop below 20C across much of the forecast area by 12z Thursday. Cold temperatures (from -7F GBG to +6C LWV) coupled with northwest winds of 10-20 mph should once again drop wind chills below -15F across most of the forecast area. It is likely that an advisory will be required. Highs will only rise a few degrees from morning lows on Thursday as cold northwest winds persist. LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday Another cold night Thursday Night can be expected though not quite as cold as Wednesday Night as winds shift to the southwest ahead of the next system. Temperatures should climb almost back to normal for the latter half of January for Friday through Sunday... before a strong cold front moves through Illinois early next week. There is some range in model temperature solutions for the weekend. On the edges of the envelope are the GEM raising 850 mb temperatures to near 0C by 12z Sunday while the ECMWF is almost 20 degrees C colder. At this time will split the difference which is slightly above the 12z MEX guidance. Colder air returns for Monday and Tuesday with temperatures once again more consistent between models and resulting in highs mostly in the teens and lows near zero. Although moisture remains rather limited, appears there may be a chance of light snow Friday night with sligh chances through much of the weekend with skies generally mostly cloudy. At this time it appears that any snow amounts should be less than an inch. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
424 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL. HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS. TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 424 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 NAM SHOWS A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF 12Z THU. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE NORTH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE 12Z FRI AND FRI NIGHT. COUPLE DIFFERENT CLIPPER SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA WITH ONE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND ANOTHER FOR FRI NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE ON FRI MORNING AND WENT LIKELY POPS OVER THE CWA THEN. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AND PERSISTENCE LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SAT. PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH VERY COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIKELY POPS IN NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS. WENT WITH COLDER CONSALL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED AS ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WERE TOO WARM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BRING -SN TO THE AREA. -SN HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT KIWD/KCMX. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR PREVAILING IFR VIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AT KIWD/KCMX...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM. SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS WELL. AT KSAW...SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW INITIALLY SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT N AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLSN WILL RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY A PERIOD OF VLIFR AT KCMX LATE AFTN/EVENING WHEN CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION IS NOT TYPICALLY THE FAVORED DIRECTION FOR VERY LOW VIS AT KCMX... BUT GIVEN EXPECTED WIND STRENGTH...LIFR/VLIFR APPEAR LIKELY. WITH WINDS/SNOW NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN IFR THERE...BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE. AT KSAW... CONDITIONS WON`T DETERIORATE BLO IFR UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH WILL PLACE A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND PASS A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266. GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ264-265. GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ265. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-264. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1153 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL. HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS. TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES. THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/. AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC. WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO -12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BRING -SN TO THE AREA. -SN HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT KIWD/KCMX. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR PREVAILING IFR VIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AT KIWD/KCMX...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM. SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS WELL. AT KSAW...SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW INITIALLY SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT N AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLSN WILL RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY A PERIOD OF VLIFR AT KCMX LATE AFTN/EVENING WHEN CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION IS NOT TYPICALLY THE FAVORED DIRECTION FOR VERY LOW VIS AT KCMX... BUT GIVEN EXPECTED WIND STRENGTH...LIFR/VLIFR APPEAR LIKELY. WITH WINDS/SNOW NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN IFR THERE...BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE. AT KSAW... CONDITIONS WON`T DETERIORATE BLO IFR UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH WILL PLACE A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND PASS A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ249-250-264>266. GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263>265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1253 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO DECREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN CWA. ALSO INCREASED DEWPOINTS CENTRAL AND EAST AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN CWA. INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS WE LIE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF STRATUS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH UPPER AIR PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A RESULT OF CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND TROUGHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE GULF. SKY COVER HAS BEEN VARIABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT THE CWA CURRENTLY SEEING A BIT OF A BREAK AND GETTING A BETTER SHOT OF SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SURFACE...A NOTABLE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SET UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO WRN KS...JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NRN TX INTO MN/WI. THIS HAS LEFT THE CWA WITH SOUTH...TO GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AS THAT FRONT HAS INCHED CLOSER...AND HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL SEE A RISE IN TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF THE WINDS CAN GET SWITCHED TO THE WEST SOON...OTHERWISE TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL SIDE...AT 3PM SITTING IN THE MID 20S IN THE EAST TO MID 30S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT WITH THEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA...SO WILL THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. NOT TO SAY THERE WILL BE NO IMPACT...THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY MIDDAY MOST/IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW /MAINLY THE AFTERNOON/...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING SOUTH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT THE HIGHEST...WITH A FEW MODELS TRYING TO SHOW THE CHANCE FOR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP SLIDING INTO THE AREA...BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRETTY DRY...PROB WOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES IF ANYTHING DID FALL. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST INCLUDES BUMPING UP WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS /ESP THE AFTERNOON/...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES AFFECTING THE CWA...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADV SPEEDS. ALSO TRENDED BACK HIGHS FOR TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES WITH THAT NEXT BATCH OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN...WITH FORECAST CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 30S IN THE SW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 ALOFT: DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE AND THE TROF OVER THE E WILL AMPLIFY WED-THU. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THE INCREASED AMPLITUDE WILL RESULT IN BOUTS OF CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS. HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BLOSSOM TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FRI AND REMAIN ABOVE 2 SD THRU MON. THIS WILL FORCE MORE BITTER COLD INTO THE ERN USA AND THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS COLD. KEEP IN MIND THAT BITTER COLD IN NW FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DOESNT LAST LONG HERE. WE NEED A TROF IN THE W AND THAT MAY BE COMING IN EARLY FEB. THRU THE END OF THE MONTH THIS MEANS WILD TEMP SWINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH DECIDEDLY MORE BRUSHES WITH WINTERS COLD. SEE THE PATTERN SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON WHAT MAY BE COMING. AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE BENIGN TAIL ENDS OF TROFS ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU 12AM-12PM THU...12AM-12PM FRI. UNCERTAINTY ON SUN-MON BUT SOMETHING WILL BE APPROACHING. ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT WE WILL CONTINUE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET STREAKS FOR PRODUCING ANY WX. SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES /NEARLY 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL SLIP S THRU THE PLAINS...CROSSING THE FCST AREA THU. DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND A SURFACE TROF WILL FOLLOW FRI IN THE "WARM" SECTOR OF VERY DEEP LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE IN FRI NIGHT...BUT THE CORE OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL MISS TO THE E. HIGH PRES RAPIDLY DARTS THRU THE REGION SAT. A CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO MT LATE...WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS NEB/KS. THIS CLIPPER WILL RACE ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR TOP BY DAYBREAK SUN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY SUN- TUE...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROF ALOFT AND THIS COLD SURGE. THE GEM AND EC ARE SHARPER AND MORE POTENT THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENT 1-DAY BLAST OF ARCTIC COLD. THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD? HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW WITH MODERATION IN TEMPS TUE-WED. HAZARDS: A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE 10PM WED-11AM THU FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WIND EVENT FRI. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS. DAILY DETAILS... WED NIGHT: COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/ CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS WERE ACTUALLY INCREASED 4-7F DUE TO WINDS AND CLOUDS WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART OVER THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO BE DOWN TO -25F NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BEFORE MIDNIGHT VIA THE BURST OF CAA. WINDS WILL DECREASE THEREAFTER...BUT THAT IS WHEN TEMPS WILL COMPENSATE. THU: A STEADY WIND OF 10-15 MPH IS EXPECTED AT DAWN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE SUB-ZERO EVERYWHERE...BUT COLDEST FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. ANY LEFTOVER HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SRN SKY DEPARTS LEAVING BRILLIANT SUNSHINE...BUT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 3-4F USING A 50-50 BLEND OF GFS AND GEM 2M TEMPS...WHICH NOW PUTS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS. THU NIGHT: INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. RISING TEMPS APPEAR PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A NON- TRADITIONAL TEMP CURVE IS IN THE FCST. FRI: MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. THAT COMPLICATES TEMPS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 49-59F...WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. SAT: DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS...TEMPS COULD BE WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING. BELIEVE YOU CAN PROBABLY SAFELY ADD ANOTHER 5F TO THE FCST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN 50-60F...WARMEST SW FROM BEAVER CITY TO PLAINVILLE KS. SUN: FAIR AND DRY. WE FINISH UP ANOTHER 3-DAY STRETCH OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. MON-TUE: COLDER THEN TEMPS PLUNGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL. PATTERN: ENSEMBLES FROM MULTIPLE CENTERS PERSIST IN INDICATING A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVES COME FEB. THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE IS FCST TO BREAK DOWN WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PACIFIC. THIS TELECONNECTS TO A WRN USA TROF. THE BIAS CORRECTED GEFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PNA PATTERN TURNING NEGATIVE. THIS SUGGESTS WE MAY NOT ESCAPE THIS WINTER WITHOUT SUFFERING THE BRUNT OF A BLIZZARD OR TWO. OVERALL DEC-JAN HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL. THAT COULD CHANGE. ARCTIC COLD POURING INTO A WRN USA TROF MEANS THAT LONGER STRETCHES OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPS BECOME MORE LIKELY. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SIGNS OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBILITIES AROUND FEB 2-3...WHICH WOULD DELIVER SERIOUS WINTER COLD AND "POSSIBLY" SNOW. ALL THIS SAID...ARE THE ENSEMBLES CORRECT? THE POOL OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS REMAINS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. HARD TO IGNORE THE EFFECTS GIVEN THAT POOL HAS SUPPORTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 13 MONTHS! WE DID SEE A PATTERN CHANGE FROM DEC93-JAN94 TO FEB DESPITE A NE PACIFIC WARM POOL. SO IT CAN HAPPEN. IF IT DOES...BELIEVE WE HAVE SOME NASTY PERIODS OF WINTER STILL IN THE OFFING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS UNTIL 15Z OR 16Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HEINLEIN SHORT TERM...ADO LONG TERM...HALBLAUB AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH UPPER AIR PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A RESULT OF CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND TROUGHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE GULF. SKY COVER HAS BEEN VARIABLE TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT THE CWA CURRENTLY SEEING A BIT OF A BREAK AND GETTING A BETTER SHOT OF SOME SUNSHINE. AT THE SURFACE...A NOTABLE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SET UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO WRN KS...JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NRN TX INTO MN/WI. THIS HAS LEFT THE CWA WITH SOUTH...TO GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AS THAT FRONT HAS INCHED CLOSER...AND HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL SEE A RISE IN TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF THE WINDS CAN GET SWITCHED TO THE WEST SOON...OTHERWISE TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL SIDE...AT 3PM SITTING IN THE MID 20S IN THE EAST TO MID 30S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT WITH THEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA...SO WILL THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. NOT TO SAY THERE WILL BE NO IMPACT...THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST THROUGH THE REGION...AND BY MIDDAY MOST/IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW /MAINLY THE AFTERNOON/...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING SOUTH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT THE HIGHEST...WITH A FEW MODELS TRYING TO SHOW THE CHANCE FOR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP SLIDING INTO THE AREA...BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRETTY DRY...PROB WOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES IF ANYTHING DID FALL. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST INCLUDES BUMPING UP WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS /ESP THE AFTERNOON/...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES AFFECTING THE CWA...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADV SPEEDS. ALSO TRENDED BACK HIGHS FOR TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES WITH THAT NEXT BATCH OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN...WITH FORECAST CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 30S IN THE SW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 ALOFT: DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE AND THE TROF OVER THE E WILL AMPLIFY WED-THU. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...BUT THE INCREASED AMPLITUDE WILL RESULT IN BOUTS OF CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS. HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BLOSSOM TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FRI AND REMAIN ABOVE 2 SD THRU MON. THIS WILL FORCE MORE BITTER COLD INTO THE ERN USA AND THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS COLD. KEEP IN MIND THAT BITTER COLD IN NW FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DOESNT LAST LONG HERE. WE NEED A TROF IN THE W AND THAT MAY BE COMING IN EARLY FEB. THRU THE END OF THE MONTH THIS MEANS WILD TEMP SWINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH DECIDEDLY MORE BRUSHES WITH WINTERS COLD. SEE THE PATTERN SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON WHAT MAY BE COMING. AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE BENIGN TAIL ENDS OF TROFS ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU 12AM-12PM THU...12AM-12PM FRI. UNCERTAINTY ON SUN-MON BUT SOMETHING WILL BE APPROACHING. ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT WE WILL CONTINUE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET STREAKS FOR PRODUCING ANY WX. SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES /NEARLY 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL SLIP S THRU THE PLAINS...CROSSING THE FCST AREA THU. DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND A SURFACE TROF WILL FOLLOW FRI IN THE "WARM" SECTOR OF VERY DEEP LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE IN FRI NIGHT...BUT THE CORE OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL MISS TO THE E. HIGH PRES RAPIDLY DARTS THRU THE REGION SAT. A CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO MT LATE...WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS NEB/KS. THIS CLIPPER WILL RACE ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR TOP BY DAYBREAK SUN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY SUN- TUE...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROF ALOFT AND THIS COLD SURGE. THE GEM AND EC ARE SHARPER AND MORE POTENT THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENT 1-DAY BLAST OF ARCTIC COLD. THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD? HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW WITH MODERATION IN TEMPS TUE-WED. HAZARDS: A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE 10PM WED-11AM THU FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WIND EVENT FRI. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS. DAILY DETAILS... WED NIGHT: COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/ CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS WERE ACTUALLY INCREASED 4-7F DUE TO WINDS AND CLOUDS WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART OVER THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO BE DOWN TO -25F NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BEFORE MIDNIGHT VIA THE BURST OF CAA. WINDS WILL DECREASE THEREAFTER...BUT THAT IS WHEN TEMPS WILL COMPENSATE. THU: A STEADY WIND OF 10-15 MPH IS EXPECTED AT DAWN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE SUB-ZERO EVERYWHERE...BUT COLDEST FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. ANY LEFTOVER HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SRN SKY DEPARTS LEAVING BRILLIANT SUNSHINE...BUT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 3-4F USING A 50-50 BLEND OF GFS AND GEM 2M TEMPS...WHICH NOW PUTS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS. THU NIGHT: INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. RISING TEMPS APPEAR PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A NON- TRADITIONAL TEMP CURVE IS IN THE FCST. FRI: MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. THAT COMPLICATES TEMPS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 49-59F...WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. SAT: DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS...TEMPS COULD BE WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING. BELIEVE YOU CAN PROBABLY SAFELY ADD ANOTHER 5F TO THE FCST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN 50-60F...WARMEST SW FROM BEAVER CITY TO PLAINVILLE KS. SUN: FAIR AND DRY. WE FINISH UP ANOTHER 3-DAY STRETCH OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. MON-TUE: COLDER THEN TEMPS PLUNGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL. PATTERN: ENSEMBLES FROM MULTIPLE CENTERS PERSIST IN INDICATING A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVES COME FEB. THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE IS FCST TO BREAK DOWN WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PACIFIC. THIS TELECONNECTS TO A WRN USA TROF. THE BIAS CORRECTED GEFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PNA PATTERN TURNING NEGATIVE. THIS SUGGESTS WE MAY NOT ESCAPE THIS WINTER WITHOUT SUFFERING THE BRUNT OF A BLIZZARD OR TWO. OVERALL DEC-JAN HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL. THAT COULD CHANGE. ARCTIC COLD POURING INTO A WRN USA TROF MEANS THAT LONGER STRETCHES OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPS BECOME MORE LIKELY. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SIGNS OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBILITIES AROUND FEB 2-3...WHICH WOULD DELIVER SERIOUS WINTER COLD AND "POSSIBLY" SNOW. ALL THIS SAID...ARE THE ENSEMBLES CORRECT? THE POOL OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS REMAINS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. HARD TO IGNORE THE EFFECTS GIVEN THAT POOL HAS SUPPORTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 13 MONTHS! WE DID SEE A PATTERN CHANGE FROM DEC93-JAN94 TO FEB DESPITE A NE PACIFIC WARM POOL. SO IT CAN HAPPEN. IF IT DOES...BELIEVE WE HAVE SOME NASTY PERIODS OF WINTER STILL IN THE OFFING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS UNTIL 15Z OR 16Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADO LONG TERM...HALBLAUB AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 808 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE SNOW THAT IS ENTERING THE AREA AND WITH HOW MUCH WILL FALL. STARTING TO HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO SEE AS MUCH AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY...THE FIRST WAVE IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. VISIBILITIES ARE ONLY AROUND 4SM RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. THAT WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FIRST BAND. THE SECOND WAVE IS THE MORE POTENT WAVE AND WILL COME THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT WHAT IS COMING OUR WAY...MANY OF THE OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA ARE IN THE 2SM RANGE AND IS ONLY OVER A NARROW SWATH. THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE NOT BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE REFLECTIVITY TRENDS BUT AT LEAST MIRROR WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. WHILE THE LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS DECENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT...WOULD REALLY PREFER TO SEE A TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TO GET INTO THE HEAVIER SNOWS. WHILE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE...QPF STILL LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT AROUND 0.05". AT THIS POINT...THINKING THAT 3" LOOKS LIKE A HIGH MARK TO HIT FROM THIS SNOW WITH 2" OR LESS LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING AIM ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH SLIDING THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. GOOD QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. THERMODYNAMICS ARE ALSO GOOD...WITH 925-700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K SFCS LEADING THE CHARGE - MAXED IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. SATURATION ISN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT DEEP ENOUGH PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. MOST FAVORABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WITH THIS AMPLE FORCING AND SUFFICIENT SATURATION...THE AREA CAN EXPECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AS FOR HOW MUCH...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS VIA THE NAM AND GFS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONE GROWTH REGION FROM THE SFC TO NEARLY 8 KFT FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK LIFT DURING THIS TIME. BIG...FLUFFY FLAKES ARE LIKELY...AND RAPID ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY THOUGH...AND QPF IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THIS WILL HOLD DOWN THE AMOUNTS. SNOW RATIOS OF 20/30 TO 1 STILL LOOK GOOD...RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 INCHES TOTALS. WINDS ARE GOING TO PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IOWA...AND AREA RIDGE-TOPS. NOT SURE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SO COVER THESE IMPACTS...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SWEEPS IN WITH THE TROUGH AND PASSING SFC COLD FRONT WED MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS FROM THE MORNING READINGS. CLOUDS COULD LINGER FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EAST FOR A BETTER PART OF THE WED NIGHT...INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT LOWS SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT FROM THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COUPLE THIS WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 25 TO 35 BELOW OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH THU MORNING. ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED - OR PERHAPS WINTER WEATHER ADV IF BLOWING SNOW IS AN ISSUE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 GOOD CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS - GFS/ECMWF/GEM - WITH DROPPING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION. BOTH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...AND COULD SEE TWO SEPARATE BANDS SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SATURATION ISN/T THAT GREAT...AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...WHICH WILL KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN. HARD TO QUANTIFY AT THIS TIME...BUT LOOKS LIKE AN INCH OR LESS AT THIS MOMENT. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES FOR FRIDAY...AND HIGHS COULD VENTURE BACK TO THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE RETURN WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THE STRONGER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. 850 MB TEMPS WOULD DROP TO -24 C ON SAT VIA THE GFS. HIGHS ON SAT COULD OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY/FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. MIGHT AS WELL JUMP ON THE WAVE TRAIN...AS YOUR TICKET HAS ALREADY BEEN PUNCHED. WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD SLIP ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN. TIMING AND POSITIONING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/IF IT WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WHEREVER IT TRACKS...SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RESULT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY MVFR WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE WHILE CEILINGS RANGE FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR. THE MAIN BAND OF IFR IS NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT LSE HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING IFR THAN RST DOES...THOUGH IT COULD GO EAST OF THE SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 30KTS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW AT RST...THOUGH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH THE BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBACH SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
638 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT. GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS. ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WAA/CAA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ072-073-082-083. KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...HEINLEIN SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...FAY AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
558 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT. GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS. ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WAA/CAA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ072-073-082-083. KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...FAY AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
517 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT. GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS. ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WAA/CAA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CEILINGS AS WE SEEM TO BE TEETERING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS HEIGHT ALSO SEEMS TO BE TEETERING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS UNTIL 15Z OR 16Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND STAY ELEVATED WELL INTO THE EVENING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ072-073-082-083. KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...FAY AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1003 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WHILE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 937 AM WED...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS TAIL OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE LINGERING SHOWERS. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS LATE MORNING...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW 10F IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WIND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WINDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS HAVE DROPPED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW THIS CRITERIA. SO WILL ALSO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO EXPIRE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... AS OF 4 AM WED...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TEENS INLAND TO LOW 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY REINFORCEMENT OF THE DEEP EASTERN US TROF LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE W/NW DOMINATED FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC FRONT BUT STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS UPR 30S N TO LOWER 40S S. A DRY COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD IN THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRI MORNING. VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S. CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 45-50F DURING THE WEEKEND. SAT LOOKS RATHER WINDY AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS ESPCLY NEAR THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONT. HIGHS NEXT TUESDAY FALL BACK AGAIN INTO THE 30S AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SPREADS S INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 AM WED...AREA OF STCU ADVECTING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AS WELL AS BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1002 AM WED...NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE HAVE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL SEE A SMALL LOOSENING OF GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND IN THE TEENS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET IN NORTHERN WATERS AND AROUND 6 FEET IN SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL KEEP SCA GOING WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND WILL GO FROM GALE TO SCA IN THOSE AREAS. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 5-15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...GENERALLY ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS OCCASIONAL REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGES LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS/SEAS. BRIEF BREAK IN HIGHER WINDS/SEAS FIRST PART OF THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WNW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE LATE THU AS FRONT CROSSES...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS LATER THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THESE NW WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 FT OVER THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL WTRS EARLY FRI. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATER FRI AND FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. W/SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER FRI NIGHT AND ESPCLY SAT AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE STRONG SW WINDS SAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 11 FEET OVER THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 6 FT ALL WTRS SUN AS WINDS DIMINISH. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 22ND: TEMP YEAR CAPE HATTERAS 26 1970 MANTEO 25 1970 OCRACOKE 30 1970 NEW BERN 30 1970 WILLIAMSTON 31 1994 KINSTON 19 1985 GREENVILLE 27 1970 BAYBORO 29 1970 MOREHEAD CITY 31 1970 WASHINGTON 32 2011 && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...CGG SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...RF/SK MARINE...RF/CGG CLIMATE...CQD/SEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
658 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 655 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BLIZZARD HITTING IN FULL FORCE OVER THE AREA AS ARCTIC FRONT IS NOW MOVING TOWARD WATERTOWN SD AND WILLMAR MN. FACEBOOK POSTS AND OTHER REPORTS INDICATE WIDESPREAD ZERO VSBY IN MOST OF THE AREA AND EVEN IN TOWN/CITIES VSBYS ONE QUARTER MILE. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH PAST FEW HOURS. 925 MB WINDS ON RAP STILL HAVE 40 KTS IN THE NRN-CNTRL RRV THRU 15Z AND INTO THE SRN VALLEY INTO 18Z. SO EXPECT SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF THESE CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 WHOA WHAT A NIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT AND WIND PUSH NOW MOVING SOUTH THRU THE CENTRAL RRV HAVING PASSED GFK-RDR-CKN SINCE 3 AM. VSBYS QUICKLY GO TO ZERO TO 100 FT IN OPEN COUNTRY AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KTS. SIMILAR WINDS UPSTREAM TO WINNIPEG CURRENTLY AND WENT AHD AND ISSUED BLIZZARD WARNING JUST PRIOR TO 3 AM BASED ON INITIAL REPORTS IN PEMBINA-CAVALIER COUNTIES. 925 MB SHOW 40KTS TO MIX DOWN AND HAVE HAD 41 KTS IN WALHALLA. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AND BEST COLD ADVECTION NOW THRU 15Z...THEN THINGS START TO LEVEL OFF 18Z-21Z PERIOD. WENT AHD WITH BLIZZARD WARNING THRU 21Z FOR NOW...AS DO THNK IT WILL GET A LOT BETTER AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTN. ABR/MPX GOING BLIZZARD WARNINGS AS WELL IN THEIR WIND PRONE AREAS TODAY. DID GO WINTER WX ADV IN THE FAR EAST AS WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO 30 KTS THERE TOO AND NEW 2 INCHES OF FLUFF FELL IN BEMIDJI AREA YESTERDAY SO WOULD THINK SOME LOCAL BLOWING/DRIFTING LIKELY. IT WAS STRESSED IN ALL PRODUCTS THIS IS A GROUND BLIZZARD OUT OF TOWN BLIZZARD AND NOT IN CITY/TOWNS WHERE VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT TIMES BUT MUCH HIGHER. THINGS TRANSITION TO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES LATE THIS AFTN INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SPOTS AROUND -40F OR SO BUT EVERYONE KEPT ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ACTUALLY MOST OF THE -40F AND COLDER TEMPS OCCUR IN THE AFTN IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING PERIOD IN NE ND/NW MN. HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS QUICKLY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A COLD NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FARTHER WEST THIS TIME AND THUS -20S A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN CNTRL/ERN ND THAN PREVIOUS COOL DOWNS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP THU NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH IN THE ENDLESS CLIPPER PARADE WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING SOUTH LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY WITH 30-35 IN MUCH OF THE RRV/ERN ND AS IN THE PAST THE WEST WINDS HAVE OVERPERFORMED TEMP WISE. THEN THE ARCTIC SURGE WILL OCCUR AGAIN FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR WINDS TO 30-40 KTS AND LIKELY ANOTHER BLOWING SNOW EVENT. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS POLAR VORTEX SETTLES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE SATURDAY/SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL COUPLE WITH 100+ KT 300 HPA JET. MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. STRONG COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ON SUNDAY USHERING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. AS A RESULT...HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY. MINIMAL WARMING ON TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS STILL TOPPING OUT RIGHT AROUND THE ZERO MARK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 655 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 TAFS ARE PRETTY MUCH A NIGHTMARE AS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON CHANGING VSBY AND SUSPENDED SNOW CAUSING IFR OR MVFR CIGS. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS SKIES CLEAR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049- 052>054. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004- 007-013>015-022-027-029-030-040. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ005- 006-008-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
305 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STRATUS BELOW AROUND 5000 FT MSL IS BEING OVERRIDDEN BY PATCHY MID CLOUDS ACROSS SW IDAHO...WHICH IS LIMITING SOLAR COMPONENT FAVORABLE FOR ERODING THE PESKY BLEAK GRAY LAYER OVER SW IDAHO. NORTH TO EAST WINDS ALOFT AND A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRATUS...PROBABLY FROM BOISE TO PAYETTE TO BAKER CITY...FOR A FEW HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY KEEP UPSLOPE STRATUS GOING ACROSS THE NW MAGIC VALLEY AS THE SOUTH FRINGE OF THE STRATUS ERODES SOUTH OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OPTOMISTIC ON GETTING RID OF THE STRATUS ABOVE 2500-3000 FT MSL AND INVERSION REFORMS ANYWAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SO OTHER THAN MINOR SLOSHING AROUND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THE STRATUS LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BELOW 3500-5000 FT MSL IN THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH DEEP ARCTIC LOWS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. CONTINUED FOG AND STRATUS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND MAGIC VALLEYS AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK AFTER TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO OUR AREA AND BETTER MIXING POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FZFG AT KBOI KONO KTWF KJER KBKE. STRATUS TOPS AT 5K FEET MSL IN TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AT KMYL KBNO. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 15- 25KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT AT 0Z THU. && .AIR STAGNATION...STAGNANT PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE SHORT TERM...VM LONG TERM....KA/WH AVIATION.....KA AIR STAGNATION...VM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LINCOLN IL
218 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 211 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 WILL BE EXTENDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING STRONG COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE OF THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY SOUTH OF I-70. THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS BELOW -15F THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN WAY OF RECOVERY TOMORROW AS LOWEST HEIGHTS ARE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH THE 1049 MB HIGH MOVING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST, PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AND NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW -10F FOR WIND CHILL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET FOR A WHILE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE IJX AREA SOUTHEAST INTO LWV, IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. PLAN ON EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. MAIN RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF UNDER CLEAR SKIES. UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, SOME AREAS, PARTICULAR ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS, MAY BE COLDER FRIDAY MORNING THAN TOMORROW MORNING. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT, TEMPS MAY START TO RISE IN THE WEST, BUT THE INCREASE IN WIND WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND CHILL. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE IN FULL SWING. LONG TERM...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THERMAL EVOLUTION, BUT EVEN TIMING OF FAST-MOVING CLIPPERS IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN REASONABLE SYNC. WARMING WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB 10C OR SO DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. NEXT MAJOR WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF IT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. LATEST MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE SUGGESTS THE TRACK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD CUTOFF BETWEEN IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL NEAR THE LOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. VERY COLD AIR WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS FALLING CLOSE TO READINGS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR CURRENT COLD BLAST. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BARKER && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1145 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 COLD FRONT STARTING TO CROSS KPIA AT MIDDAY AND SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL CENTRAL ILLINOIS TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. NARROW CLEAR SLOT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM IOWA WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME, ALTHOUGH MANY UPSTREAM OBS IN CENTRAL IOWA HAVE CEILINGS BACK UP TO AROUND 4000 FEET OR SO. LARGER AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO MINNESOTA. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS THESE CEILINGS AFFECTING CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING, BUT THIS AREA APPEARS MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE, AND WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW WELL IT HOLDS TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET. SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES OCCURRING IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE KPIA-KCMI CORRIDOR, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY EVENING, GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GEELHART && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1218 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... 320 AM CST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... WHEN TRYING TO DESCRIBE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...IT IS SIMILAR TO A CAR STUCK IN NEUTRAL. THE ENGINE STARTS UP...BUT DOESN`T GO ANYWHERE. MOTHER NATURE CLEARLY HAS DECIDED TO LOCK THE REGION INTO A COLD PATTERN...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE PROGGED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SO IF YOU ENJOYED THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...GOOD NEWS...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. ALAS WE ARE WITHIN TWO WEEKS OF SEEING WHAT A SPECIAL GROUNDHOG WILL PREDICT. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN RELATIVELY QUIET...HOWEVER THIS WILL MERELY BE A TEASE AS A CLIPPER CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE ACROSS WISC SPREADING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS NEXT WAVE HAVE STRENGTHENED MARGINALLY...WITH A NARROW CHANNEL OF MOISTENING/ASCENDING PARCELS INTO A FAVORABLE DGZ. THE BEST AREA FOR LIGHT ACCUMUS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A DIXON TO KANKAKEE TO FOWLER LINE...WITH GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.0 SNOWFALL. SOUTH OF THIS LINE UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE...MEANWHILE A NARROW AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST IL COULD SEE UP TO 2.0 INCHES OF FRESH POWDERY SNOWFALL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE LINGERING POTENT THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THAT TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM WITH WINDS HAVING BECOME SOUTHERLY. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS. CLIPPER WILL PUSH INTO WESTCENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...WITH A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. A SHARP INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT AS A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...AND UNFORTUNATELY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO TO ARND 0 NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND WELL BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS WEST OF I-355. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 30-35 MPH AND FORECAST TEMPS...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO ARND -20 TO -25 TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY IN FORECAST TEMPS/WINDS...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY/FORECAST...HIGH. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WHILE THE CLIPPER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...THE EFFECTS WILL LINGER WITH CLOUDS HOLDING THRU THUR MORNING BEFORE THE STRONG SFC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO ERODE THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THE AFTN HOURS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA THUR...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS IN THE FAR WESTERN CWFA STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO THUR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY THUR...HOWEVER NOT AS POTENT AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS IT APPEARS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE CRITERIA TO -5 TO -15 DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED UP WITH YET ANOTHER BLUSTERY NIGHT HEADING INTO FRI. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY THUR EVENING...ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ALOFT WILL STEADILY WARM THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT STARTING ARND -20 DEG C TO ARND -9 DEG C BY DAYBREAK FRI. WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CHALLENGE FOR SFC TEMPS...AND CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THUR EVE BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND AFT MIDNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNS THUR NGT/EARLY FRI...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING WIND CHILL VALUES BACK TO AT LEAST -20 TO -25 TO POSSIBLY NEARING -30 DEG F BY MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SO DO NOT PLAN TO HOIST ANY WIND CHILL WATCH YET. ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES EAST ACROSS MANITOBA TOWARDS JAMES BAY FRI...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL FRI NGT. PRIOR TO FROPA...WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS COULD SEE A QUICK BUMP INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPR 20S FRI...AND THAT MAY EVEN BE A TAD TOO CONSERVATIVE. WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A HANDFUL OF POINTS TAG 30-32 DEGREES...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATE WEEK WAVE...INDICATING SNOW ACCUMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT RATIOS WILL HOVER IN THE 20:1 TO 25:1...WITH POSSIBLY 1-3" OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK SAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A DIXON IL TO FOWLER IN LINE. CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THUR NGT...HIGH. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PATTERN...HOWEVER SOME MINOR RELAXING MAY TAKE PLACE TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIODS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PARKED OVER WESTERN CANADA. THROUGH AT LEAST MON...THE WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WILL FLIRT WITH +4 SIGMA. THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LOCKS THE TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS HAVE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR SUN...AND PRESENTLY IS EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED MARGINALLY WITH THE RECENT CYCLES BEGINNING TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS FAVORABLE ON THE NOSE OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH A FLATTENING IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. THIS MAY BE AN EARLY INDICATION THAT AN FGEN BAND COULD DEVELOP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS YET AGAIN DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT AND STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW SUN...MEDIUM/HIGH. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * LIGHT SNOW ENDING WITHIN THE HOUR BUT WITH LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR/IFR VIS POSSIBLE. * A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. * SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VIS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. RODRIGUEZ //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY EXIT WITHIN THE HOUR...BUT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONT. THIS SNOW IS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH DONT EXPECT THE BETTER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOWEST VISIBILITY IN THIS SNOW COULD STILL DROP TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES...BUT WITH THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 MILES UNTIL THIS SNOW EXITS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING...AS A BULK OF THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN. DID CLEAR OUT SKIES OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS CLOUD SHIELD APPEARS TO BE NARROW IN COVERAGE PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ORIENTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WHILE INCREASING WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF AROUND 30KT STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING RODRIGUEZ //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SNOW TRENDS WITHIN THE HOUR...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SNOW TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD. * MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. RODRIGUEZ //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW LIKELY. A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...CHANCE SNOW. IFR POSSIBLE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. KJB && .MARINE... 339 AM CST A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL HEADLINE WORTHY WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE LAKE. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE LAKE...A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL SETUP SOME GALE FORCE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DOWN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. THEREFORE I UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND MOVED IT UP A FEW HOURS. I ALSO INCLUDED MY INDIANA NEAR SHORES IN THIS WARNING...AS IT APPEARS A NARROW CHANNEL OF STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40 KT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LAND-LAKE CONVERGENCE LAKE EFFECT BAND. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF GALES ALONG MY ILLINOIS NEAR SHORES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT HERE...I FELT BETTER GOING WITH A 30 KT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND MENTIONING SOME 35 KT GALE FORCE GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ABATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG GALES WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS EVENT AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HIGH END SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF 45 KT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY ON BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EVEN OCCUR WITH THIS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. I HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. A GALE WATCH OR STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT. IF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY GALES UP TO 40 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744- LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878...6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1145 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1000 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014 Cold front approaching the western CWA late this morning, about to cross the Mississippi River shortly. Areas of light snow and flurries have been moving through mainly the northern half of the forecast area, periodically reducing visibilities to around 4 miles, although some heavier snow showers going through the Quad Cities have brought visibilities down to around 2 miles. Have increased PoP`s across mainly the northern CWA. The grids and zones are a bit difficult to reconcile in this situation, as there will likely be a widespread area of flurries, but only about a 30-40% chance that it would accumulate. Anything measurable would likely be over the next few hours as the front passes. A narrow clear slot, about 30-50 miles wide, will be moving into the northwest CWA shortly, but a larger area of clouds behind the front will keep skies mostly cloudy overall through the day. Geelhart && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1145 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014 Cold front starting to cross KPIA at midday and should be through all central Illinois TAF sites by mid afternoon. Narrow clear slot will advance through the area, but additional clouds moving in from Iowa will produce MVFR ceilings for a time, although many upstream obs in central Iowa have ceilings back up to around 4000 feet or so. Larger area of MVFR ceilings from northern Iowa into Minnesota. Will need to watch this as the RAP model suggests these ceilings affecting central Illinois this evening, but this area appears more diurnal in nature, and will wait to see how well it holds together after sunset. Some lower visibilities occurring in scattered snow showers, mainly in the KPIA-KCMI corridor, and this will continue for a few more hours. Northwest winds will ramp up behind the front and by evening, gusts of 20-30 knots are expected. This will likely persist into Thursday morning. Geelhart && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 308 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2014 Will issue a wind chill advisory across central and southeast IL from 9 pm this evening through noon on Thursday for wind chills between 15 and 25 below zero. Northern areas will come close to wind chill warning criteria of 25 below zero or colder late tonight into mid morning Thursday. A wind chill advisory may be needed again Thursday night into mid morning Friday. SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night A long wave upper level trof will remain over the eastern states through next week with temps staying below normal, though some brief modification this weekend. Series of clipper systems/ northern stream short waves will continue to dive SE into the region every few days bring periodic chances of light snow. 1st one to mainly pass to our NE today and then next one arriving Friday night and another one on Sunday with better chance of light snow accumulations Friday night and Sunday. 504 dm 500 mb low between Hudson Bay and Lake Superior will send a northern stream short wave/clipper SE into the great lakes region today. Central IL will be on the SW fringe of this system and only expect a chance of light snow or flurries today with light dusting from I-74 NE. Short wave quickly exits SE into the upper Ohio river valley while 1048 mb arctic high pressure settles into the central Plains Thu and into AR/western TN by dawn Friday. Arctic cold front passes SE through central IL this afternoon with brisk NW winds behind the front driving down wind chills. Arctic air mass in place through Friday morning to ensure wind chills of 15 to 25 below zero after 9 pm this evening, though SE counties will likely not reach the criteria until during overnight and continue Thu morning. Areas from I-74 north could see wind chills reach 25 below zero or colder for a few hours late tonight into mid morning Thu and may need to upgrade to a wind chill warning. Another very cold night expected Thursday night with lows zero to 5 below zero while wind chills back down to 15 to 23 below zero Thu night into mid morning Friday. Increased SW winds Friday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely and helping to raise temps into the mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with SW areas 30-32F by Jacksonville and west. Another strong clipper system dives into the Great Lakes region Friday night and appears to bring better chances of light snow accumulations to central IL with up to 1 inch possible and possibly a bit more NE of I-74. Will be windy with some blowing of this snow Friday night into Saturday morning as light snow diminishes then. Highs Sat range from mid 20s north of Peoria to 30-35F from I-72 south. LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday Yet another clipper system to bring a chance of light snow to the IL river valley overnight Sat night and across the area on Sunday as it moves into the great lakes region. Could be light snow accumulations again near 1 inch or less especially from I-74 NE. Highs Sunday in the upper 20s NE and 30-35F SW areas. Then another surge of arctic air to arrive early next work week and wind chills could reach 15 to 20 below zero Monday night. The 8-14 day outlook through Feb 4 continues 50-65% chance of below normal temperatures and 40% chance of above normal precipitation which would likely fall as more snow. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to Noon CST Thursday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
325 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS SMALLER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE DEVELOPING IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS UPPED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTH HALF OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT LIKELY POPS EARLY THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WELL ABOVE MOS POPS BUT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS FEEL THIS IS PRUDENT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MOST FORCING EXITS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING THERE. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WENT CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET MOS/RAW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL AREAS TONIGHT...STARTING AT 100 AM NORTH AND 400 AM SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 A LOT TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...SNOWFALL...AND WINDS. KEPT LOW POPS NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND PROVIDES DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS PLUS SOME UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH A FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY MORNING AND DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...AS CORE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. THIS IS CLOSE TO MET MOS/MODEL BLEND. SAME AIRMASS KEEP LOWS BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS. READINGS REBOUND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE MANY AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH HALF. WINDS WILL LESSEN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE ABOVE...EVEN THOUGH WIND CHILL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DECIDED JUST TO KEEP IT SIMPLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE ANOTHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN THE SAME. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THIS COULD CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES WITH ANY SNOW THAT FALLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 FASCINATING TO WATCH MODEL LOOPS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS/ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE AREA BETWEEN JAMES BAY/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ABOUT 3000 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER OUR AREA. THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/ASSOCIATED LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE FOR US WITH THE SNOW COVER WE HAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS ENDS THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGIONAL BLEND OF THE MODELS DURING THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT ROTATES ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING MAKING IT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/21Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 CHANGES MADE TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR OCCURRING IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...DWM AVIATION...DWM/NIELD VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS SMALLER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MORE DEVELOPING IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS UPPED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTH HALF OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT LIKELY POPS EARLY THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WELL ABOVE MOS POPS BUT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS FEEL THIS IS PRUDENT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MOST FORCING EXITS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING THERE. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WENT CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET MOS/RAW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL AREAS TONIGHT...STARTING AT 100 AM NORTH AND 400 AM SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 A LOT TO FOCUS ON THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...SNOWFALL...AND WINDS. KEPT LOW POPS NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND PROVIDES DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS PLUS SOME UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH A FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY MORNING AND DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...AS CORE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. THIS IS CLOSE TO MET MOS/MODEL BLEND. SAME AIRMASS KEEP LOWS BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS. READINGS REBOUND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE MANY AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH HALF. WINDS WILL LESSEN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE ABOVE...EVEN THOUGH WIND CHILL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DECIDED JUST TO KEEP IT SIMPLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE ANOTHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN THE SAME. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THIS COULD CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES WITH ANY SNOW THAT FALLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 FASCINATING TO WATCH MODEL LOOPS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS/ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE AREA BETWEEN JAMES BAY/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ABOUT 3000 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER OUR AREA. THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/ASSOCIATED LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE FOR US WITH THE SNOW COVER WE HAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS ENDS THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGIONAL BLEND OF THE MODELS DURING THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT ROTATES ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING MAKING IT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 22/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....DWM AVIATION...DWM VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION PRODUCING SEVERAL CHANCES OF SNOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 939 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SO UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. THUS MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODEL DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SNOW ARRIVING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES COULD REACH WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO MADE NO CHANGES TO SNOW CHANCES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A DRY OUTLIER WITH THIS EVENINGS SYSTEM WHILE THE NAM HAS TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD BE A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 18 BELOW LATE TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS IN. THESE WIND CHILLS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL EVEN BE COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING ALL AREAS BY THEN. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES YET...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTH THURSDAY AS THE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE AREAS. MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WETTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. IN MOST CASES FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER FOR THURSDAY AND GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES THOSE PERIODS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 FASCINATING TO WATCH MODEL LOOPS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS/ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE AREA BETWEEN JAMES BAY/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ABOUT 3000 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER OUR AREA. THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/ASSOCIATED LOWS AND COLD FRONTS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE FOR US WITH THE SNOW COVER WE HAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA. BUT...MAY BE ABLE TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS ENDS THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGIONAL BLEND OF THE MODELS DURING THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT ROTATES ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING MAKING IT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 22/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...DWM VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION PRODUCING SEVERAL CHANCES OF SNOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 939 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SO UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. THUS MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODEL DATA STILL SHOWS SOME SNOW ARRIVING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES COULD REACH WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO MADE NO CHANGES TO SNOW CHANCES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A DRY OUTLIER WITH THIS EVENINGS SYSTEM WHILE THE NAM HAS TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. THERE COULD BE A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 18 BELOW LATE TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS IN. THESE WIND CHILLS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL EVEN BE COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING ALL AREAS BY THEN. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES YET...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTH THURSDAY AS THE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE AREAS. MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WETTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. IN MOST CASES FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER FOR THURSDAY AND GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES THOSE PERIODS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND A MEAN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EACH WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE TAIL END OF THE FIRST WAVE...RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND WAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ON MONDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST BECOMES LOW. AT THIS TIME...LATEST INITIALIZATION IS NOT PULLING IN ANY PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH HINTING AT YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT INSERT POPS SINCE THIS IS DAY 7...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER INITIALIZATIONS START INTRODUCING PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN UPPER TROUGH. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 22/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 STILL RUNNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THAT ANY -SNSH ARE STAYING WELL NORTH OF AREA...BUT ONLY KBMI CARRYING -SNSH AT THIS TIME. RAP MODEL HAS REMOVED ALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 23/09Z SO LOOKING AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR -SNSH. WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR THEM TO OCCUR FOR THIS EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO AREA TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER FRIGID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO AREA PRIOR TO NEXT PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE FRIDAY EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...DWM VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
106 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM MST WED JAN 22 2014 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A 505DM CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG PV HEIGHT ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PROGRESSING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. REGARDING PRECIP...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS/SATELLITE IN LINE WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST CHANCES 03-09Z PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. I DID BUMP POPS UP A LITTLE TO CATEGORICAL (80) OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/UPSLOPE WIND/CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED. MODELS STILL FAVORING GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND GENERALLY ONE HALF IN OR LESS THE FURTHER EAST IN THE CWA. MODELS HAVE SPED UP EXIT OF PRECIP IN THE NORTH WITH VERY DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS QUICKLY ADVECTING SOUTH WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ARCTIC AIR MASS ADVECTS SOUTH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF -15F OR LESS ARE ADVERTISED TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. IN FACT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS MY CURRENT FORECAST LOW OF -7F COULD BE OPTIMISTIC FOR MCCOOK. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. REGARDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 F RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DESPITE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. I DECIDED TO ISSUE A WC ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA AND THE FIRST TWO TIER OF OUR NW KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THESE CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE CWA COULD STILL END UP BEING CLOSE DEPENDING ON WIND/SKY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. THURSDAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDDAY (POSSIBLY EARLIER)...WITH A DRY/COLD DAY EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS 20-25F WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS SLOW TO PULL EAST. AT LEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT (10 MPH OR LESS) WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 1226 PM MST WED JAN 22 2014 THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND BRIEF COOL DOWNS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND ONE FRONT...AND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HOWEVER...COULD NOT REACH A CONSENSUS FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ATTM. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THIS PERIOD WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN WINDS INCREASE TO BREEZY/WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT RH VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR NOW. MONDAY WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE COLD SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST WED JAN 22 2014 COLD FRONT STILL NORTH OF KMCK TERMINAL IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER 2500-4000FT STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED FURTHER SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND CANT RULE OUT BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK. AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AROUND 25KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. PRECIP FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH KMCK LIKELY REMAINING SNOW FREE. MVFR CIG/VIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AT KGLD WITH LIGHT SNOW. WHILE SREF DOES HINT AT IFR AT KGLD...THIS WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOW BAND IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND WOULD BE A TEMPORARY CONDITION OTHERWISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH BY 12Z...AND HAVE TAFS REFLECTING THIS TREND. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016. CO...NONE. NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
320 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAINTAIN FRIGID WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. LOW PRES IS CONTINUING ITS TREK ACROSS THE NW ATLC AND IS FCST TO PASS WELL S AND E OF NOVA SCOTIA. A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL AFFECTING MAINLY THE COAST AND EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND RUC HAD THIS SYSTEM HANDLED WELL W/PUSHING THE SNOW INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE MARITIMES BY 00Z W/LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE, THE DECISION HERE WAS TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WIND CHILLS. THE 12Z UA SHOWED COLD AIR SITTING BACK IN QUEBEC READY TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. THINKING IS ONCE THE LOW EXITS TO THE E, THAT COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT W/SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH RIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THIS CLEARING IS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY W/CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO HIT 10 TO 20 BELOW AND THIS COUPLED W/THE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SOME DANGEROUS WIND CHILL READINGS. NORTHWEST AND WESTERN MAINE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS REACH WARNING CRITERIA(AOB -34F) BY 3-4 AM THURSDAY. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE SOME CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. IF THIS DOES TAKE HOLD, THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP SOME, ALLOWING FOR WIND CHILL READINGS TO STAY ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS WHETHER AN UPGRADE TO A WIND CHILL WARNING IS NEEDED. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS SET UP FOR CENTRAL AND THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING BANGOR TO CALAIS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS WIND CHILLS COULD HIT 20 BELOW W/TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 5 BELOW. FOR THURSDAY, AN UPPER TROF IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE AT 700MBS IS SHOWN ESPECIALLY BY THE GFS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK LIFT. THE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG AND DECIDED TO STAY BELOW 15% FOR PRECIP CHANCES. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A DEEP ARCTIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BITTER COLD WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A FAST MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A NEW ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRESS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PULL STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW. NORMALLY WHEN A LOW LIFTS TO OUR WEST BRINGING A STRONG SOUTH WIND, TEMPERATURES BECOME WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. HOWEVER, THE ARCTIC AIR IS SO DEEP THAT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST IN EASTERN SPOTS WHERE A WEAK SECONDARY REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST MAY FORM QUICKLY ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME ADDED SUPPORT TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRESH SURGE OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY WILL QUICKLY SWING EAST NORTHEAST APPROACHING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEW GFS IS NOW COMING IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THIS SMALL LOW. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR, SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FAVORED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BITTER COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART INTO THURSDAY. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH AS KFVE AND KCAR AS SOME MVFR CIGS COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY W/THE NW FLOW. ATTM, DID NOT GO W/MVFR CIGS IN THE NORTHERN TAFS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE IFR THROUGHOUT THE AREA IN LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING OUT THROUGH 11 PM AS WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. 44027 ALREADY CLOSING IN ON 40 KT GUSTS PER THE 2 PM OB. WAVE HEIGHTS ALSO NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THE LATEST TRENDS SHOWED HIGHER SEAS THAN WHAT WAS BEING FCST. THE SWAN GUIDANCE CAUGHT ON TO THE HIGHER SEAS OF 7-8 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER ON AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY. THE GALE WARNING WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A SCA BY THE LATE EVENING FCST CYCLE. SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY. A GALE MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003-004- 010. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1250 PM UPDATE...NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS READINGS ARE STILL RUNNING BELOW 0F. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. THEREFORE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WILL BE LUCKY TO CLIP 0F WHILE IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION, STAYED W/THE SINGLE NUMBERS ATTM. ON THE PRECIP END, SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES AND SNOWFALL/QPF AMOUNTS PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE 15Z RUC WAS DOING WELL W/SHOWING THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING OVER EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. SOME REPORTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN WASHINGTON COUNTY, OTHERWISE, A DUSTING. A NEW FCST PACKAGE WAS SHIPPED OUT TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING; WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN DOWNEAST MAINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE 0 TO 10 ABOVE WITH THE IMMEDIATE COAST JUST A BIT WARMER. FOR TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING, SO THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE COLD AND DRY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS THEY HAVE EARLY THIS MORNING, SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... CONTD VERY COLD XPCTD THU THRU FRI AS WEAK S/WVS ALF MOVG W TO E ACROSS THE REGION BRING OCNL CLDNSS AND PERHAPS FLURRIES/ICE CRYSTALS SPCLY ACROSS THE NR HLF OF THE FA. AN W TO E ORIENTATED SFC RIDGE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW VLY DECOUPLING FOR MID TO LATE THU NGT...BUT THE AMOUNT AND THICKNESS OF LOW CLDNSS WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GAMBLE WITH BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE LOWS WEIGHTED A LITTLE TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE TO HIGHLIGHT SOMEWHAT COLDER OVRNGT LOWS IN PROTECTED VLYS. OTHERWISE...LEANED MORE TOWARD CONSOLIDATED GUIDANCE FOR DYTM HI TEMPS FOR THU AND FRI AFTN WHICH HAS SHOWN SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OVR MOST SINGLE AND OTHER BLENDED GUIDANCE IN A COLD REGIME SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AFT A FAIR CONDITIONS FRI EVE...CLDS INCREASE OVRNGT FRI WITH A CHC OF OVRRNG LGT SNFL SPCLY OVR WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY ERLY SAT MORN AS A MDTLY STRONG S/WV APCHS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LGT OVRRNG SNFL WILL CONT TO OVRSPRD THE REST OF THE FA SAT MORN AS A S/WV FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS APCHS AND THEN TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SAT NGT AS IT CROSSES THE FA. WE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR ALL OF THE FA SAT AFTN...THEN DECREASE TO CHC SN SHWRS SAT NGT AS A MID LVL DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE FA...GIVEN THAT THE MAIN SFC LOW ACTUALLY TRACKS NE THRU ERN QB JUST W OF THE ST LAWRENCE VLY WITH A WEAK TRIPLE POINT OCCLUSION LOW TRACKING OVR NE ME. WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE IN ENTRAINING ATLC MOISTURE...EQUIV QPF AND SNFL LOOK RELATIVELY LGT ATTM...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT LCLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALG THE ERN ME/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER JUST AS DEEPER ATLC MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ALSO...A MDTLY STRONG LLVL JET MAY BRING GUSTY S/SW SFC WINDS AND MILD ENOUGH TEMPS ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST FOR SN TO MIX WITH RN ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER SAT AFTN INTO ERLY SAT EVE BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS LATER SAT NGT. AFT A AN INITIAL WEAK FALL IN TEMPS BEHIND A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE FA WED LATE EVE...TEMPS WILL SHARPLY FALL BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SN SHWRS...SPCLY ACROSS THE N. GIVEN THE PRISTINENESS OF THE AIR MASS...TEMPS WILL NOT LIKELY RECOVER MUCH DURING THE DAY SUN...AND IN REALITY MAY A CONTINUE A SLOW FALL THRU THE DAY UNDER BRISK WRLY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER MSLY FAIR SKIES SUN EVE...WITH INCREASING HI/MID CLDNSS SPCLY ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS ANOTHER S/WV...THIS TM FROM THE OH VLY RESULTING IN SFC LOW PRES FROM THE MID ATLC STATES INTO THE GULF OF ME. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SN...SPCLY TO THE SE HLF OF THE FA MON INTO MON EVE WHERE WE WENT WITH LOW LIKELY POPS (AND LESSER CHC POPS FURTHER NW) BEFORE TAPERING TO SCT SN SHWRS LATE MON NGT. GIVEN THIS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...THIS EVENT WOULD BE COLDER THAN THE SAT EVENT WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER SN RATIOS PERHAPS RESULTING IN WNTR HDLNS... FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED VERY COLD...BUT MSLY FAIR CONDITIONS ON TUE. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z IN LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW MOVES TO THE EAST. SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU INTO FRI...WITH MVFR CLGS POSSIBLE ATTMS OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AND THU NGT. CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR FRI NGT AND TO IFR SAT IN LOW CLDNSS AND FALLING SNFL. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE SAT NGT TO MVFR IN REMAINING SN SHWRS AND TO VFR ON SUN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY, LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT INTO THIS EVENING. THE GALE WARNING THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY SCA CONDITIONS OR LESS THU AND FRI... WITH GALE FORCE SRLY WINDS POSSIBLE SAT AHEAD OF LOW PRES AND A COLD FRONT...THEN GALE FORCE WRLY WINDS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUN. WENT WITH A BLEND OF 00Z WW3 WITH SWAN NAM/GFS WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS/ WIND GUSTS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ002- 005-006-010. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001- 003-004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ030. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1126 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 INCREASED WIND/GUSTS OVER SWRN CWA IN AREA OF FCST HRRR MAXIMUM TODAY. ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN SAME GENERAL VICINITY. BIG QUESTION REMAINS AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR CONSIDERING RECENT INCREASE IN ICE COVERAGE. RECENTLY EXPANDED AREA OF ICE COVERAGE HAS APPROXIMATE THICKNESS LESS THAN 4 INCHES ACCORDING TO ENV CAN ICE SERVICE CHART. WITH OPEN AREA ALONG NSHORE AND INCREASING NW WINDS SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE OPENINGS AND CREATE ADDITIONAL FISSURES IN EXISTING ICE COVER. IN THEORY THIS WILL INCREASE PROBABILITY OF LATENT HEAT CONTRIBUTION. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE TO CU FIELD STRETCHING FROM CTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NRN BAYFIELD COUNTY. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH WINDS. AS OF 09Z...THIS FRONT WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED WEST. AHEAD OF IT THERE ARE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN LIGHT BANDS AND TEMPORARILY LOWERED VISIBILITIES. LITTLE...IF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 TODAY THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A STRONG ISALLOBARIC RISE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND BETWEEN THAT AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLOW 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AT TIMES AND FOR CERTAIN AREAS TO NEAR 30 MPH. THIS IS GOING TO TAKE THE FRESH SNOW THAT WE GOT OVERNIGHT AND REALLY BLOW IT AROUND...AND EXPOSED AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SINCE WE ONLY GOT AN INCH LAST NIGHT...AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SINCE THE RECENT FREEZING RAIN EVENT THE IMPRESSIVE SNOW PACK WE HAVE IS NOT GOING TO ALL BLOW AWAY. IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WE ALREADY HAVE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE DELAYED START TIME OF ADVISORY TO 00Z THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO A WIND CHILL WARNING WITH VALUES PUSHING 40 BELOW LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE MENTIONING THIS CONCERN IN BOTH WSW AND HWO THIS MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHEN WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT...FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AN AMAZING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. THE ONE ISSUE THAT MAKES THIS EVENT CONDITIONAL IS THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. MONDAY THERE WERE STILL LARGE ICE FREE AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE OPEN WATERS AREAS. HOWEVER... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A LOT MORE ICE HAS FORMED...AND THE LAKE IS NEARLY 90 PERCENT COMPLETELY ICE COVERED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. SOME OPEN AREAS REMAIN...BUT IT IS A LARGE QUESTION MARK AS TO WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. SO...WE ARE EITHER GOING TO GET LITTLE IF ANY SNOW...OR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 6 PLUS INCHES OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE COUNTIES OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL MENTION THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT IN THE PUBLIC PRODUCT...AS WELL AS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE SNOW BANDS ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND GO FROM THERE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AND THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WILL PROBABLY BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. I LEANED ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY WEIGHTED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY THIS FAR OUT. THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SNOWFALL CHANCES AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION CLOUDY. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY GET AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL OFFER A VERY BRIEF WARMUP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN REACHES OF CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST...BUT WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND TIMING. THE GFS TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND MOSTLY DRY. THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS THOUGH BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. ALSO...THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT CONSIDERING THE CURRENT HEAVY ICE COVER OVER THE LAKE. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE ICE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LAKE NEEDS ABOUT 80 PERCENT OR MORE ICE COVER BEFORE THERE IS ANY SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW. EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION...PROVIDING DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND BLSN OVER NE MN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND HYR...DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND BACK TO THE W/SW TONIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -1 -21 -3 -5 / 30 10 0 60 INL -4 -29 -1 -3 / 20 10 0 50 BRD 0 -22 -1 -5 / 10 10 0 20 HYR 4 -21 -1 -5 / 50 40 0 40 ASX 4 -15 -2 -3 / 80 90 10 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>037. WI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001-006-007. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ002>004-008-009. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LE SHORT TERM...LE LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1034 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 INCREASED WIND/GUSTS OVER SWRN CWA IN AREA OF FCST HRRR MAXIMUM TODAY. ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN SAME GENERAL VICINITY. BIG QUESTION REMAINS AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR CONSIDERING RECENT INCREASE IN ICE COVERAGE. RECENTLY EXPANDED AREA OF ICE COVERAGE HAS APPROXIMATE THICKNESS LESS THAN 4 INCHES ACCORDING TO ENV CAN ICE SERVICE CHART. WITH OPEN AREA ALONG NSHORE AND INCREASING NW WINDS SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE OPENINGS AND CREATE ADDITIONAL FISSURES IN EXISTING ICE COVER. IN THEORY THIS WILL INCREASE PROBABILITY OF LATENT HEAT CONTRIBUTION. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE TO CU FIELD STRETCHING FROM CTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NRN BAYFIELD COUNTY. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH WINDS. AS OF 09Z...THIS FRONT WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED WEST. AHEAD OF IT THERE ARE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN LIGHT BANDS AND TEMPORARILY LOWERED VISIBILITIES. LITTLE...IF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 TODAY THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A STRONG ISALLOBARIC RISE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND BETWEEN THAT AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLOW 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AT TIMES AND FOR CERTAIN AREAS TO NEAR 30 MPH. THIS IS GOING TO TAKE THE FRESH SNOW THAT WE GOT OVERNIGHT AND REALLY BLOW IT AROUND...AND EXPOSED AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SINCE WE ONLY GOT AN INCH LAST NIGHT...AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO SINCE THE RECENT FREEZING RAIN EVENT THE IMPRESSIVE SNOW PACK WE HAVE IS NOT GOING TO ALL BLOW AWAY. IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WE ALREADY HAVE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE DELAYED START TIME OF ADVISORY TO 00Z THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO A WIND CHILL WARNING WITH VALUES PUSHING 40 BELOW LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE MENTIONING THIS CONCERN IN BOTH WSW AND HWO THIS MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHEN WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT...FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AN AMAZING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. THE ONE ISSUE THAT MAKES THIS EVENT CONDITIONAL IS THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. MONDAY THERE WERE STILL LARGE ICE FREE AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE OPEN WATERS AREAS. HOWEVER... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A LOT MORE ICE HAS FORMED...AND THE LAKE IS NEARLY 90 PERCENT COMPLETELY ICE COVERED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. SOME OPEN AREAS REMAIN...BUT IT IS A LARGE QUESTION MARK AS TO WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. SO...WE ARE EITHER GOING TO GET LITTLE IF ANY SNOW...OR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 6 PLUS INCHES OVER THE SOUTH SHORE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE COUNTIES OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL MENTION THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT IN THE PUBLIC PRODUCT...AS WELL AS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE SNOW BANDS ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND GO FROM THERE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AND THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WILL PROBABLY BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. I LEANED ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY WEIGHTED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY THIS FAR OUT. THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SNOWFALL CHANCES AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION CLOUDY. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY GET AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL OFFER A VERY BRIEF WARMUP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN REACHES OF CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST...BUT WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND TIMING. THE GFS TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND MOSTLY DRY. THE ECMWF AND GEM TRACKS THOUGH BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. ALSO...THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT CONSIDERING THE CURRENT HEAVY ICE COVER OVER THE LAKE. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE ICE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LAKE NEEDS ABOUT 80 PERCENT OR MORE ICE COVER BEFORE THERE IS ANY SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW. EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION...PROVIDING DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DUE TO -SN AND BLSN IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN. STRONG AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME GRADUAL CLEARING/SCATTERING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WEAKENING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -1 -21 -2 -5 / 30 10 0 60 INL -4 -29 0 -3 / 20 10 0 50 BRD 0 -22 -1 -5 / 10 10 0 20 HYR 4 -21 -1 -5 / 50 40 0 40 ASX 4 -15 0 -3 / 90 90 20 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>037. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ038. WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CANNON SYNOPSIS...LE SHORT TERM...LE LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1141 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WIND CHILLS/TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH AS THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO REALLY START GOING ON THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE W MODEL SOLUTION. THE WRF AND SREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES TODAY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR AWHILE. ALSO...SKY COVER COULD BE TRICKY AS THE HRRR AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD HOLD ON TO SOME STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRISK FROM THE NORTH...AND I USED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS...WHICH WERE A BIT MORE STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT COMPARED TO OUR STANDARD WIND GUST TOOL. CONSRAW HAS BEEN QUITE RELIABLE LATELY AND STUCK WITH IT. GUIDANCE REALLY TANKS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WIND JUST A BIT MORE ELEVATED...I WENT A BIT ABOVE GENERAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL QUITE COLD IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SOLID IN OUR NORTHEAST...AND A LITTLE MORE SHAKY IN OUR SOUTHWEST. SPLIT THE ADVISORY INTO TWO SECTIONS...STARTING SOONER IN THE NORTHEAST. IF WIND SPEED WINDS UP BEING A BIT LIGHTER...WE COULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION IN OUR SOUTHWEST. FURNAS COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY IS ALREADY DICEY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS I HAVE IN THERE NOW. ALSO...I TOOK OUT THE FLURRIES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS NUMERICAL MODELS TREND EVEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 BRRR...ON THURSDAY A COLD 1049MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -15C AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F LOOK REASONABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WARMING AIRMASS. ON FRIDAY...THE WARMER AIR SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY IN INCREASING/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BUT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND MIXING TO AROUND H9. HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 50F. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW H825...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES FOR AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 130KT JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WAA/CAA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH WINDS. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH TODAY...AND WHILE IT IS CURRENTLY STILL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WONT BE TOO MUCH LONGER BEFORE IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS USHERING IN GUSTY WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF...BUT ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WONT BE UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. WONT BE SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...REMAINING N/NWRLY. SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...AND CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FLAKES AT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT CEILINGS VFR AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS AT TIMES DIPPING IN TO THE UPPER END OF MVFR CRITERIA. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-074>077-084>087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ072-073-082-083. KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...HEINLEIN SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...FAY AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1207 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WHILE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 937 AM WED...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS TAIL OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE LINGERING SHOWERS. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS LATE MORNING...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW 10F IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WIND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WINDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS HAVE DROPPED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW THIS CRITERIA. SO WILL ALSO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO EXPIRE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... AS OF 4 AM WED...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TEENS INLAND TO LOW 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY REINFORCEMENT OF THE DEEP EASTERN US TROF LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE W/NW DOMINATED FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC FRONT BUT STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS UPR 30S N TO LOWER 40S S. A DRY COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD IN THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRI MORNING. VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S. CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 45-50F DURING THE WEEKEND. SAT LOOKS RATHER WINDY AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS ESPCLY NEAR THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH HIGHS UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONT. HIGHS NEXT TUESDAY FALL BACK AGAIN INTO THE 30S AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SPREADS S INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... AS OF 1206 PM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAVE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME CONTINUED SNOW AND LOW CIGS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AM EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR AREA WIDE BY MID AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IFR IN SOUTHERN TAFS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY ARCTIC AIR DOMINATING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1002 AM WED...NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE HAVE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL SEE A SMALL LOOSENING OF GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND IN THE TEENS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET IN NORTHERN WATERS AND AROUND 6 FEET IN SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL KEEP SCA GOING WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND WILL GO FROM GALE TO SCA IN THOSE AREAS. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 5-15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WED...GENERALLY ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS OCCASIONAL REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGES LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS/SEAS. BRIEF BREAK IN HIGHER WINDS/SEAS FIRST PART OF THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WNW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO INCREASE LATE THU AS FRONT CROSSES...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS LATER THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THESE NW WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 FT OVER THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL WTRS EARLY FRI. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATER FRI AND FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. W/SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER FRI NIGHT AND ESPCLY SAT AS DEEP LOW CROSSES WELL TO THE N WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE STRONG SW WINDS SAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 11 FEET OVER THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 6 FT ALL WTRS SUN AS WINDS DIMINISH. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 22ND: TEMP YEAR CAPE HATTERAS 26 1970 MANTEO 25 1970 OCRACOKE 30 1970 NEW BERN 30 1970 WILLIAMSTON 31 1994 KINSTON 19 1985 GREENVILLE 27 1970 BAYBORO 29 1970 MOREHEAD CITY 31 1970 WASHINGTON 32 2011 && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150- 152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...CGG SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...RF/CGG MARINE...RF/CGG CLIMATE...CQD/SEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
443 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON THURSDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER AFTERNOON SQUALLS. ADDITIONAL ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW POCKETS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND-CHILLS IN A FEW PLACE ARE STILL IN THE -10F RANGE. CLOUDS ARE RACING EASTWARD WITH A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT. A RACE BETWEEN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND IR ABSORBING CLOUDS. IN WESTERN REGIONS...GUIDANCE IMPLIES SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAP AND 4KM NAM ARE FASTER WITH SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS HAVE THE SNOW LATER AND SOME TOWARD THE AM HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE SREF/GEFS IMPLY CHANCE SNOW IS HIGHER IN THIS PERIOD IN THE WESTERN AREA. LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. THESE DATA ALSO A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR AND AN ARCTIC FRONT IN OHIO THURSDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW AND SHOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT GOOD SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL IN WESTERN AREAS. PREVIOUS: THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER WILL DELIVER WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH...WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS. UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE APPROACHING ADVISORY SNOWFALL THURSDAY STRONG POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIFTED. IN ADDITION...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SQUALLS IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT NOW LOOKS QUITE HIGH...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LIFT AS THE UPPER TROF PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION THU AFTERNOON PRODUCING SNSQ PARAMETER VALUES OF 1 TO 3. 4KM SPC WRF ALSO DEPICTS SOME 30DBZ+ RADAR SIMULATED ECHOES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THU AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN LOCAL WHITEOUTS AS A RESULT...FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX PERSISTING FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE LARGE QUASI STATIONARY LOW ROTATES OVER THE BAY...AND MOVES EVER SLOWLY EASTWARD...ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS THAT ONE CLIPPER WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER SUN NITE/MONDAY. BEHIND EACH CLIPPER...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF FRIGID WX COULD COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WEST COAST RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA. WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AN EVER PRESENT ARCTIC AIR MASS THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A FEW PERIODS OF LOW WIND CHILLS...GENERALLY OVER THE ELEVATED REGIONS...THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED CONDITIONS IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN SOMERSET COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 21Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. MVFR AND LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED ON THU AS THE CLIPPER PASSES. LOCAL SQUALLS AND VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRFIELDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX. SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN. SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR LONG TERM...CERU AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
421 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON THURSDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER AFTERNOON SQUALLS. ADDITIONAL ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW POCKETS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND-CHILLS IN A FEW PLACE ARE STILL IN THE -10F RANGE. CLOUDS ARE RACING EASTWARD WITH A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT. A RACE BETWEEN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND IR ABSORBING CLOUDS. IN WESTERN REGIONS...GUIDANCE IMPLIES SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAP AND 4KM NAM ARE FASTER WITH SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS HAVE THE SNOW LATER AND SOME TOWARD THE AM HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE SREF/GEFS IMPLY CHANCE SNOW IS HIGHER IN THIS PERIOD IN THE WESTERN AREA. LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. THESE DATA ALSO A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR AND AN ARCTIC FRONT IN OHIO THURSDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW AND SHOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT GOOD SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL IN WESTERN AREAS. PREVIOUS: THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER WILL DELIVER WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH...WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS. UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE APPROACHING ADVISORY SNOWFALL THURSDAY STRONG POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIFTED. IN ADDITION...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SQUALLS IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT NOW LOOKS QUITE HIGH...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LIFT AS THE UPPER TROF PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION THU AFTERNOON PRODUCING SNSQ PARAMETER VALUES OF 1 TO 3. 4KM SPC WRF ALSO DEPICTS SOME 30DBZ+ RADAR SIMULATED ECHOES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THU AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN LOCAL WHITEOUTS AS A RESULT...FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX PERSISTING FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE LARGE QUASI STATIONARY LOW ROTATES OVER THE BAY...AND MOVES EVER SLOWLY EASTWARD...ALBERTA CLIPPERS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS THAT ONE CLIPPER WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER SUN NITE/MONDAY. BEHIND EACH CLIPPER...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF FRIGID WX COULD COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WEST COAST RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA. WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AN EVER PRESENT ARCTIC AIR MASS THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A FEW PERIODS OF LOW WIND CHILLS...GENERALLY OVER THE ELEVATED REGIONS...THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED CONDITIONS IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN SOMERSET COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. MVFR AND LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED ON THU AS THE CLIPPER PASSES. LOCAL SQUALLS AND VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRFIELDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX. SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN. SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR LONG TERM...CERU AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER