Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/21/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1024 AM MST SUN JAN 19 2014
.UPDATE...SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY THROUGH TODAY EXCEPT FOR A BAND
OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM WYOMING. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY...LEADING TO LESS
WIND OVER THE FOOTHILLS AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE
ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. SOME WEST WINDS TODAY
AND MORE SOUTHERLIES TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM MST SUN JAN 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...BROAD UPPER RIDGING HAS NUDGED INLAND A BIT ALONG
THE WEST COAST WITH RESULTANT DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER COLORADO. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE BUT THERE IS A WEAK
RIPPLE WHICH WILL RESULT IN JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES LATER
THIS AM AND AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY AS
700MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +3C WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD HIGH IN
DENVER IS 68 TODAY BUT DON`T THINK WILL GET QUITE THAT WARM. THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND BASE OF THE
FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING WITH MODEST STABLE INVERSION AT 700MB THIS
AM. ALREADY SEEING SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE IN THE
NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. LATEST RAP CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING
WINDS DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL A DECENT SURFACE
GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT
COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TO 30KT.
LONG TERM...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO COLORADO
DURING MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES OR COOLER
OVER THE PLAINS COMPARED TO TODAY. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE LESS OF A
CHANGE..PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THIS FRONT IS DRY AND ONLY
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. ALREADY BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT...WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE. WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY IN ADDITION TO THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OUT OF CANADA IS NOT THE
BEST...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TO HAVE MORE OF A PUSH. HAVE
COOLED TEMPERATURES BOTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE DEPTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND CONTINUE SOUTH
PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE...DID NOT GO AS DRASTICALLY LOW
AS THE ECMWF WITH TEENS AS THE MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT STAYED
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AN UPPER LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY THEN ALL THREE MODELS...EC...GFS AND GEM SHOW
THIS LOW RETROGRADING INTO THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT...SO PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN ITS
CLOSEST...THEN WE SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN.
AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. SOME HIGH CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS AT BJC THIS AM IN THE 20-30KT RANGE
BUT WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS AT APA/DEN
WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOME STRONGER W-NW WINDS
SURFACING BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
410 AM MST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...BROAD UPPER RIDGING HAS NUDGED INLAND A BIT ALONG
THE WEST COAST WITH RESULTANT DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER COLORADO. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE BUT THERE IS A WEAK
RIPPLE WHICH WILL RESULT IN JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES LATER
THIS AM AND AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY AS
700MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +3C WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S OVER THE PLAINS. RECORD HIGH IN
DENVER IS 68 TODAY BUT DON`T THINK WILL GET QUITE THAT WARM. THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND BASE OF THE
FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING WITH MODEST STABLE INVERSION AT 700MB THIS
AM. ALREADY SEEING SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE IN THE
NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. LATEST RAP CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING
WINDS DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL A DECENT SURFACE
GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT
COULD STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TO 30KT.
.LONG TERM...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO COLORADO
DURING MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES OR COOLER
OVER THE PLAINS COMPARED TO TODAY. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE LESS OF A
CHANGE..PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THIS FRONT IS DRY AND ONLY
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. ALREADY BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT...WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE. WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY IN ADDITION TO THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OUT OF CANADA IS NOT THE
BEST...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TO HAVE MORE OF A PUSH. HAVE
COOLED TEMPERATURES BOTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE DEPTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND CONTINUE SOUTH
PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE...DID NOT GO AS DRASTICALLY LOW
AS THE ECMWF WITH TEENS AS THE MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT STAYED
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AN UPPER LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY THEN ALL THREE MODELS...EC...GFS AND GEM SHOW
THIS LOW RETROGRADING INTO THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT...SO PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN ITS
CLOSEST...THEN WE SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. SOME HIGH CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS AT BJC THIS AM IN THE 20-30KT RANGE
BUT WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS AT APA/DEN
WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOME STRONGER W-NW WINDS
SURFACING BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
111 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE MIDWEST APPROACHES AND
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MORE SNOW TO THE REGION DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE
GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN THE UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR BTWN 09Z-12Z OVER THE WRN DACKS...AS A
SFC TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACH FROM
W-CNTRL PA AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SOME WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL
RIDGING HAS ALLOWED THE SKIES TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES THERE.
EXPECT LOWS TO STILL BE IN THE TEENS TO L20S. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AND BACK TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN A
BIT AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. NEVERTHELESS...THE SEEDER-FEEDER
SCENARIO REMAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN AS THE COLUMN
MOISTENS SO DOES THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. AS THIS UPPER WAVE PASSES QUICKLY TO THE
EAST...BUFR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ON
THE INCREASE. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SMALL IMPULSES WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL POINT TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THIS TOO IS SEEN IN THE
EXPERIENTIAL 4KM WRF REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WHERE WE WILL PLACE
THE HIGHER POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND INTO THE TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM
TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. TRENDS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHICH WILL FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH LAKE ONTARIO FOR
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...CATSKILLS. LAKE BANDS ARE STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN
DUE TO INCREASE SHEAR PROFILES AND INLAND PENETRATION. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WELL FOR A
BRISK NIGHT EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AT OR BELOW ZERO FOR THE TERRAIN.
MONDAY...
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FROPA WILL OCCUR AT THE LATEST MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS H850 TEMPS BEGIN
THEIR FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS BY DAYS END. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AND BRING SOME SNOW MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I90. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY
WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEANING AGAINST THIS IDEA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COUPLE PV ANOMALIES PER THE
1.5PVU...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BRISK CONDITIONS REMAINING.
MONDAY NIGHT...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD AS H850 TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW -20C. FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION...LESS THAN
FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORY AND DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD MINIMIZE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL /JUST FLURRIES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACT APPEARS TO BE FROM WIND
CHILLS APPROACHING ADVISORY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE DACKS WITH 0-10 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MIGHTY COLD.
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EAST WILL PRODUCE AN INCESSANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW AND A
COUPLE OF CLIPPERS WILL DRIVE -20C TO -25C H850 TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ONE CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF OUR REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY. ENERGY FROM THIS CLIPPER
WILL TRANSFER TO A PRODUCE A MUCH LARGER OCEAN STORM THAT THE
GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TAKE WELL OUT TO SEA. THE FLOW LOOKS
TO BE MORE NORTHERLY (AS OPPOSED TO WESTERLY) WHICH COULD PREVENT
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM HAPPENING IN OUR REGION. HAVE KEPT THE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD DRY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION...NOT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS ONE COULD BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
OR SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT WILL HAVE VERY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
(PWATS OFF THE GFS WERE AROUND 0.1 INCHES). FOR NOW...JUST PLACED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN FOR THURSDAY.
AFTER THAT CLIPPER RACES OFFSHORE...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS
TO ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY. AS STRONGER CLIPPER APPROACHES...TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY...BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PICK UP
NEGATING ANY BENEFIT OF SLIGHTLY LESS COLD TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.
THEREFORE...FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH RATHER HARSH CONDITIONS...EXACERBATED BY A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND THAT COULD DRIVE WIND CHILLS TO NEAR DANGEROUS LEVELS AT TIMES.
HOW COLD WILL IT BE?
LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO AVERAGE IN THE
TEENS TO AROUND 20 FROM ALBANY SOUTH...ONLY SINGLE DIGITS WELL NORTH
OF ALBANY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO TO ABUT +10
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
AND ACROSS THE ELEVATED AREAS AS WELL.
BY SATURDAY...HIGHS LOOK TO REACH BACK INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER ACTIVITY IN THE NEAR TERM.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE SOME WEAK RIDGING NOSING INTO REGION
WHICH HAS CAUSED A DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
HIGHER CLOUDS STREAM IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DRAGGING ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS IS THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC AIR.
AN AREA OF WEAK RETURNS HAVE DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT ITS DIFFICULT TO TIME
SO HAVE RUN WITH A VICINITY SHOWER IN TAFS TO ADDRESS THREAT.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AT KPSF
DUE TO UPSLOPE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
IF A SNOW SHOWER IMPACTS A TAF SITES MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
WHILE AT KGFL A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SHIFTING MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY ESPECIALLY AT
KALB AND KPSF WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
REGARDLESS...THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. AS A RESULT...STREAM FLOWS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH...THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY MONDAY WILL ALLOW RIVER AND LAKE ICE TO
REFORM AND THICKEN ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1232 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE MIDWEST APPROACHES AND
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MORE SNOW TO THE REGION DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE
GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN THE UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR BTWN 09Z-12Z OVER THE WRN DACKS...AS A
SFC TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACH FROM
W-CNTRL PA AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SOME WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL
RIDGING HAS ALLOWED THE SKIES TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES THERE.
EXPECT LOWS TO STILL BE IN THE TEENS TO L20S. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AND BACK TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN A
BIT AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. NEVERTHELESS...THE SEEDER-FEEDER
SCENARIO REMAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN AS THE COLUMN
MOISTENS SO DOES THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. AS THIS UPPER WAVE PASSES QUICKLY TO THE
EAST...BUFR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ON
THE INCREASE. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SMALL IMPULSES WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL POINT TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THIS TOO IS SEEN IN THE
EXPERIENTIAL 4KM WRF REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WHERE WE WILL PLACE
THE HIGHER POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND INTO THE TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM
TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. TRENDS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHICH WILL FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH LAKE ONTARIO FOR
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...CATSKILLS. LAKE BANDS ARE STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN
DUE TO INCREASE SHEAR PROFILES AND INLAND PENETRATION. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WELL FOR A
BRISK NIGHT EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AT OR BELOW ZERO FOR THE TERRAIN.
MONDAY...
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FROPA WILL OCCUR AT THE LATEST MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS H850 TEMPS BEGIN
THEIR FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS BY DAYS END. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AND BRING SOME SNOW MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I90. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY
WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEANING AGAINST THIS IDEA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COUPLE PV ANOMALIES PER THE
1.5PVU...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BRISK CONDITIONS REMAINING.
MONDAY NIGHT...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD AS H850 TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW -20C. FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION...LESS THAN
FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORY AND DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD MINIMIZE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL /JUST FLURRIES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACT APPEARS TO BE FROM WIND
CHILLS APPROACHING ADVISORY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE DACKS WITH 0-10 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MIGHTY COLD.
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EAST WILL PRODUCE AN INCESSANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW AND A
COUPLE OF CLIPPERS WILL DRIVE -20C TO -25C H850 TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ONE CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF OUR REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY. ENERGY FROM THIS CLIPPER
WILL TRANSFER TO A PRODUCE A MUCH LARGER OCEAN STORM THAT THE
GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TAKE WELL OUT TO SEA. THE FLOW LOOKS
TO BE MORE NORTHERLY (AS OPPOSED TO WESTERLY) WHICH COULD PREVENT
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM HAPPENING IN OUR REGION. HAVE KEPT THE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD DRY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION...NOT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS ONE COULD BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
OR SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT WILL HAVE VERY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
(PWATS OFF THE GFS WERE AROUND 0.1 INCHES). FOR NOW...JUST PLACED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN FOR THURSDAY.
AFTER THAT CLIPPER RACES OFFSHORE...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS
TO ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY. AS STRONGER CLIPPER APPROACHES...TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY...BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PICK UP
NEGATING ANY BENEFIT OF SLIGHTLY LESS COLD TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.
THEREFORE...FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH RATHER HARSH CONDITIONS...EXACERBATED BY A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND THAT COULD DRIVE WIND CHILLS TO NEAR DANGEROUS LEVELS AT TIMES.
HOW COLD WILL IT BE?
LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO AVERAGE IN THE
TEENS TO AROUND 20 FROM ALBANY SOUTH...ONLY SINGLE DIGITS WELL NORTH
OF ALBANY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO TO ABUT +10
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
AND ACROSS THE ELEVATED AREAS AS WELL.
BY SATURDAY...HIGHS LOOK TO REACH BACK INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EST...THE SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED OR TAPERED TO
FLURRIES AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR
OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS VFR CIGS EVEN GOING SCATTERED. HOWEVER...
THERE COULD BE BRIEFLY MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. IF SOME
CLEARING WERE TO TAKE PLACE AT KGFL...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR FOG
COULD BRIEFLY POP UP. THE RISK OF THIS LOOKED LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 50
PERCENT)...TO EMIT FROM THE TAFS...BUT DID INCLUDE MIFG FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AT THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES WILL
INSURE GOOD VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THAT BREEZE WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OR A LITTLE HIGHER AT
KALB/KPSF UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND SUNDAY BUT IT NOW LOOKS
AS THE THREAT OF SNOW IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AS THE CENTER
OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
WE LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH THE CLOUDS JUST
ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD...EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE WE HOLD THEM AT
3000 FEET AGL.
THE WIND ON SUNDAY WILL TURN SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY...AVERAGING
CLOSE TO 10KTS...WITH GUST TO 20 AT KALB AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
REGARDLESS...THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. AS A RESULT...STREAM FLOWS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH...THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY MONDAY WILL ALLOW RIVER AND LAKE ICE TO
REFORM AND THICKEN ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
710 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
.UPDATE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
COMPRISED OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS
TROUGH IN THE EAST IS RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS VORTICITY CENTER IS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ARCTIC SURGE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG ITS PATH. THIS ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER IN
TERMS OF A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN STARTING LATE TOMORROW AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES OF THE DAY HAVE GIVEN WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORCED ON THE
CONVERGENT NOSE/LER QUADRANT OF A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET CUTTING
ACROSS THE GULF HAVE OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW THE LOW
LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR LIFT AND
A RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. ONLY SMALL
EXCEPTION MAY BE DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS LATE TONIGHT WHERE NWP
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WOULD EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES AT MOST. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST...BUT AT THIS
TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. LOW TEMPS
BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TO THE
LOW/MID 50S FROM I-4 SOUTHWARD.
TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT A BAD WEATHER DAY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE KEY WORD IS "OVERALL"...AS WE WILL HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS TO DEAL WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A RATHER GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND. DESPITE DODGING A FEW RAIN DROPS...THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. SLIGHT COOLER
ALONG THE NATURE COAST WITH THE WIND OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF
WATERS. MAY STILL SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING DOWN TOWARD
FORT MYERS...BUT THESE SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT AREA OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER INTO THE NATURE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY PIVOT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
TAMPA BAY AND DOWN THE SUN COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT...BUT THE FORCING SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GO WITH
CHANCE 30-40% RAIN CHANCES. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY
PIVOTING EAST FROM THE TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS WILL BE FORCING AN AREA
OF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS NEAR AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS INTENSIFYING LOW WILL ACTUALLY HELP TO STRENGTHEN
THE FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...
SHARPENING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR ASCENT. THIS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
ASCENT ALONG WITH A DECENT SWATH OF DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC
FORCING/QVECTOR-CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO ARGUE AGAINST A LIKELY NARROW BUT ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE DURATION OF RAIN IS
LIKELY TO BE SHORT...THE CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE MAY GO UP IN THE
FORECAST SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.
TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONT QUICKLY EXITS TO OUR SOUTH WITH STRONG CAA
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN ITS WAKE. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS WILL END BY MIDDLE EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES INLAND. THE CAA WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT WE LIKELY
WILL SEE SOME LOWER STRATOCU DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE NEAR THE
COAST AS LONG AS THE WINDS STAY NW. LATE AT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THEY VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THIS INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS
WILL STAY MORE OFFSHORE. THIS FRONT HAS ARCTIC ORIGINS AND THE
CLASSIC LOW LEVEL THERMAL SIGNATURE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS BEING
PROJECTED BY MOST OF THE RELIABLE NWP GUIDANCE SETS. THE GFS FOR
INSTANCE DEFINITELY HAS AN INVERTED THERMAL STRUCTURE WITH THE
COLDEST AIR IN THE VERY LOW LEVELS. AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE 850MB
TEMPS AT GAINSEVILLE IS AROUND +3C WHILE THE 950MB TEMPS IS AROUND
-2C. SIMILAR STRUCTURE EXISTS DOWN NEAR TAMPA WHERE THE 850MB TEMPS
IS GREATER THAN +6C WHILE THE 950MB TEMPS IS CLOSE TO 0C. ALL THIS
SUGGESTS THE STATISTICAL MOS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN TUESDAY NIGHT...SO THE COLDEST AIR
WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL LATE NIGHT. BY SUNRISE...THERE WILL BE SOME
THREAT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS TO THE NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE. TEMPS WILL
STAY ABOVE FREEZING FURTHER SOUTH FROM HERE...BUT A STEADY BREEZE
WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL COLD FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOORS PLANS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP FROST FROM BEING A THREAT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPS AND/OR FROST.
&&
.AVIATION...
21/00Z-22/00Z: PREVAILING VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS BUT
OCNL BKN HIGH CLOUDS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HOWEVER FOG
FAVORED KLAL AND KPGD CAN EXPECT MVFR BR AND SCT STRATUS TOWARD
SUNRISE. APPROACHING FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WESTERLY AND GUSTY
DURING THE DAY AND RESULT IN VCSH AT KTPA...KPIE...KLAL...AND KSRQ
LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH A TURN IN THE WIND TO
THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS OR SO ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE NOW UP STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12 FEET OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 56 71 41 55 / 10 30 10 0
FMY 57 75 47 62 / 10 20 30 0
GIF 53 71 38 56 / 10 30 10 0
SRQ 55 73 46 58 / 10 30 10 0
BKV 46 72 37 53 / 10 40 0 0
SPG 59 70 46 56 / 10 30 10 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
941 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.UPDATE...THE MAIN FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE A SHORT WAVE PUSHING
A LINE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODELS
WERE NOT HANDLING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS VERY
WELL...HOWEVER LOCAL HI RES HRRR AND WRF ARE DEPICTING THIS LINE
TO PUSH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING
TO FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE TAMPA BAY AREA. WILL SIDE WITH
THE LOCAL MODELS SO BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM BEFORE THE LINE MOVES SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY ON
SHORE WINDS ALONG AREA BEACHES WILL CREATE A RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH
TONIGHT. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. ANY CEILINGS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 3500 FEET. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IN THE TAFS UNTIL TIMING AND DURATION
BECOME MORE CLEAR.
&&
.MARINE...WEST WINDS TO PERSIST TODAY AND REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE
NEXT UPDATE. FOR AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...INCREASED RAIN
POTENTIAL TODAY WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY SHIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF. OTHERWISE... NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FOR INLAND
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...INCREASED RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THIS WILL NOT REACH
THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS...MAINLY EAST OF I 75 TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE SUNRISE. RH WILL MODERATE BY TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 50 69 55 / 30 0 0 10
FMY 70 51 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 68 48 70 52 / 30 0 0 10
SRQ 69 50 70 54 / 30 0 0 10
BKV 68 37 70 45 / 30 0 0 10
SPG 67 54 69 57 / 30 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
AVIATION...21/JELSEMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
910 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...WEAK SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA
THIS MORNING...WHICH KEPT WINDS CALM OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS ALL BUT THE BARRIER
ISLANDS EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 20S IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS.
AFTER THIS CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY QUICKLY
RECOVERED INTO THE 40S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE BIG BEND REGION HAS HELD TOGETHER SO FAR BETTER THAN
MODELS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. HOWEVER DESPITE THE SHARP TROUGH THAT
WILL DRIVE IT THROUGH THE STATE LATER TODAY...IT WILL BE RUNNING
INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER PENINSULA FLORIDA. MORNING SOUNDINGS
AROUND 0.30" AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LAYER RH VALUES AT 20-40
PERCENT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE
AND NW VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO COVER ANY ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS THIS BAND APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EVERYONE
ELSE...THE IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-23 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4 AFTER 19Z WITH MINIMAL
IMPACT.
&&
.MARINE...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15-20 KTS OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF AROUND 20KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE CAPE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SHORT
DURATION/MARGINAL NATURE OF EVENT. WILL KEEP WITH CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS.
SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE/3-4 FT OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM WITH POTENTIAL OF
SOME 5 FT SEAS THIS EVENING OFFSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE. WESTERLY 20 FOOT
WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. DISPERSION
WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
MOSES/VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1236 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SUNDAY. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
SUNRISE. LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT THINK
THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY...AND LATEST MET GUIDANCE INDICATING POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE
PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUING TO LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MIXING AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE BREEZY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS
NEAR 25 KNOTS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE SURFACE RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. WARMING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE NATION DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS
INDICATE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH REINFORCING COLD FRONTS
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY DURING THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WV LOOP SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
AROUND 5 TO 6 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAINLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BE FROM THE WEST
AROUND 5 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
320 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CST
LATE EVENING UPDATE...
ALL WINTER HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED OR BEEN CANCELLED THIS EVENING AS
SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER SNOW MOVES OFF INTO
INDIANA AND OHIO OVERNIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS ERODED CLOUD COVER OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 9 PM CST...WHICH ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH COL AREA NORTH OF SFC LOW HAS ALLOWED
SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METRO
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. FOG SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG...AS WINDS BACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO DISSIPATE IT. THOSE SAME
CLEAR/CALM WIND CONDITIONS OVER OUR NEW SNOW COVER WERE ALSO
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS ALREADY IN OUR TYPICALLY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SPOTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL AND THE FOX VALLEY AREA. HAVE
LOWERED MINS A BIT ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMP TREND IN
HOURLY GRIDS ACTUALLY STABILIZING OR COMING BACK UP A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF AFOREMENTIONED WIND/MIXING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
228 PM CST
REST OF TODAY...
SURFACE LOW IS DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW STRETCHING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. SYSTEM HAS
BEEN FAIRLY WELL BEHAVED SO FAR WITH REPORTS OF AROUND 3-4 INCHES IN
THE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW THUS FAR. DECENT PACKING OF
THE PRESSURE IS NOTED ON THE 280-285K THETA SURFACES...WITH THE BEST
ASCENT PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA BY MID
EVENING. RAP H7 F-GEN SEEMS TO INITIALIZE NICELY...LINING UP WELL
WITH RADAR AND STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH SUBURBS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA...AND PIVOTING TO THE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. THE RAP DOES
PICK UP ON F-GEN RESTRENGTHENING THIS EVENING OVER A SIMILAR AREA
AND GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...DID SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF SNOW
ENDING THIS EVENING IN THE GRIDS BY A FEW HOURS.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE POTENT UPPER WAVE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA TODAY WILL DEPART
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH MID/UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN LAKES REGION.
STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE QUICKLY DEPARTING
LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. FAIRLY STRONG HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE PRECIPITATION. ONCE THE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER AIR WILL
ADVECT OVERHEAD...WITH H85 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 2-3C BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY
TOMORROW.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ...
MAIN CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLD
ARCTIC AIR. WEST COAST RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WEEKEND...STRETCHING NORTH ACROSS ALASKA WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH A
DEEPENING LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL DISLODGE AIR FROM THE ARCTIC SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SINK SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS SOUTH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. H85 TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND -20C AND GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR COLD AIR CU WITH SOME FLURRIES
DEVELOPING IF NOT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA...WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE
WHICH WILL BE RAMPING UP...AND APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE TO SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN OR NEAR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
OVER LAND...LAPSE RATES WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT AND APPEARS THAT WE
SHOULD BE WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD/DRY AIR TUESDAY LEADING TO
MOST AREAS STAYING DRY OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
REGION REMAINS UNDER AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF SNOWFALL AS WAVES
ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE
ROBUST UPPER WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION MIDWEEK. SHOULD THIS
PAN OUT...MIGHT SEE A BRIEF/MODEST WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THEN EVEN COLDER AIR SPILLING BEHIND. BOTH GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE
TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -24C AT H85 WEDNESDAY. WHILE ITS PROBABLY A
BIT FAR OUT TO START TALKING LOW TRACK AND POTENTIAL SNOW...FOR NOW
AT LEAST MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME BY FRIDAY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAINLY WEST/SOUTH OF TAF SITES THRU 11Z.
* GUSTY WINDS FROM 230-250 DEG UP TO 28 KT DEVELOP ARND 14Z AND
PERSIST THRU 00Z.
* GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND SLIGHT REDUCTION
TO VSBYS...BUT VSBYS SHUD REMAIN 6SM OR GREATER.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW/CLIPPER SYSTEM...THE WINDS HAVE BECOME
VERY LGT TO VRB AT TIMES. THE ABUNDANCE OF LINGERING NEAR SFC
MOISTURE WITH CLEARING SKIES ALOFT...AS ALLOWED PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
TO DEVELOP. THIS ONLY APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARY AS WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. IR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A THICK MID/UPR LVL CLOUD SHIELD ROTATING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS. TIMING APPEARS TO
ARRIVE AT TAF SITES ARND 12Z AND STEADILY THICKENS. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH CONSIDERABLE WIND DEVELOPING JUST AFT
DAYBREAK...WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND GUSTING AT TIMES TO 28KT.
IT DOES APPEARS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN SOMEWHAT BY
18-20Z...THEN CLOSER TO 00Z THE FURTHER DIMINISHES WITH WINDS
BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN. CLOUDS LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFT
06Z MON.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW
DEVELOPING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERIODIC CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
308 AM CST
GALES BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...AND WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH WITH GALES
DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING...HAS A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WAS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN UP IN THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGION. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE GALES DEVELOPING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE LATER THIS MORNING...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEN THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN OFF...AND WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST/NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAING HAZARDOUS WAVES
FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THEN THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA AND SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING WINDS TO INCREASE TOWARDS
30KT...POSSIBLY A FEW GALES FOR THE OPEN WATERS. THEN THIS SFC
RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TUE...UNFORTUNATELY THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN. WINDS BRIEFLY
DIMINISH WED...BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED. WED NGT/THUR
THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER YET
ANOTHER STRONG SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS LIKELY GOING TO SETUP A PERIOD OF
GALES FOR THUR AFTN THROUGH FRI FOR THE OPEN WATERS.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868 UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1202 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CST
LATE EVENING UPDATE...
ALL WINTER HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED OR BEEN CANCELLED THIS EVENING AS
SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER SNOW MOVES OFF INTO
INDIANA AND OHIO OVERNIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS ERODED CLOUD COVER OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 9 PM CST...WHICH ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH COL AREA NORTH OF SFC LOW HAS ALLOWED
SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METRO
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. FOG SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG...AS WINDS BACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO DISSIPATE IT. THOSE SAME
CLEAR/CALM WIND CONDITIONS OVER OUR NEW SNOW COVER WERE ALSO
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS ALREADY IN OUR TYPICALLY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SPOTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL AND THE FOX VALLEY AREA. HAVE
LOWERED MINS A BIT ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMP TREND IN
HOURLY GRIDS ACTUALLY STABILIZING OR COMING BACK UP A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF AFOREMENTIONED WIND/MIXING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
228 PM CST
REST OF TODAY...
SURFACE LOW IS DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW STRETCHING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. SYSTEM HAS
BEEN FAIRLY WELL BEHAVED SO FAR WITH REPORTS OF AROUND 3-4 INCHES IN
THE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW THUS FAR. DECENT PACKING OF
THE PRESSURE IS NOTED ON THE 280-285K THETA SURFACES...WITH THE BEST
ASCENT PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA BY MID
EVENING. RAP H7 F-GEN SEEMS TO INITIALIZE NICELY...LINING UP WELL
WITH RADAR AND STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH SUBURBS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA...AND PIVOTING TO THE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. THE RAP DOES
PICK UP ON F-GEN RESTRENGTHENING THIS EVENING OVER A SIMILAR AREA
AND GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...DID SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF SNOW
ENDING THIS EVENING IN THE GRIDS BY A FEW HOURS.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE POTENT UPPER WAVE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA TODAY WILL DEPART
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH MID/UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN LAKES REGION.
STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE QUICKLY DEPARTING
LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. FAIRLY STRONG HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE PRECIPITATION. ONCE THE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER AIR WILL
ADVECT OVERHEAD...WITH H85 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 2-3C BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY
TOMORROW.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ...
MAIN CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLD
ARCTIC AIR. WEST COAST RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WEEKEND...STRETCHING NORTH ACROSS ALASKA WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH A
DEEPENING LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL DISLODGE AIR FROM THE ARCTIC SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL SINK SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS SOUTH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. H85 TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND -20C AND GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR COLD AIR CU WITH SOME FLURRIES
DEVELOPING IF NOT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA...WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE
WHICH WILL BE RAMPING UP...AND APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE TO SEE SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN OR NEAR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
OVER LAND...LAPSE RATES WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT AND APPEARS THAT WE
SHOULD BE WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD/DRY AIR TUESDAY LEADING TO
MOST AREAS STAYING DRY OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
REGION REMAINS UNDER AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF SNOWFALL AS WAVES
ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE
ROBUST UPPER WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION MIDWEEK. SHOULD THIS
PAN OUT...MIGHT SEE A BRIEF/MODEST WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THEN EVEN COLDER AIR SPILLING BEHIND. BOTH GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE
TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -24C AT H85 WEDNESDAY. WHILE ITS PROBABLY A
BIT FAR OUT TO START TALKING LOW TRACK AND POTENTIAL SNOW...FOR NOW
AT LEAST MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME BY FRIDAY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS SHUD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 630-7Z.
* SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAINLY WEST/SOUTH OF TAF SITES THRU 7Z.
* GUSTY WINDS FROM 230-250 DEG UP TO 28 KT DEVELOP ARND 14Z AND
PERSIST THRU 00Z.
* GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND SLIGHT REDUCTION
TO VSBYS...BUT VSBYS SHUD REMAIN 6SM OR GREATER.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW/CLIPPER SYSTEM...THE WINDS HAVE BECOME
VERY LGT TO VRB AT TIMES. THE ABUNDANCE OF LINGERING NEAR SFC
MOISTURE WITH CLEARING SKIES ALOFT...AS ALLOWED PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
TO DEVELOP. THIS ONLY APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARY AS WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. IR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A THICK MID/UPR LVL CLOUD SHIELD ROTATING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS. TIMING APPEARS TO
ARRIVE AT TAF SITES ARND 12Z AND STEADILY THICKENS. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH CONSIDERABLE WIND DEVELOPING JUST AFT
DAYBREAK...WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND GUSTING AT TIMES TO 28KT.
IT DOES APPEARS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN SOMEWHAT BY
18-20Z...THEN CLOSER TO 00Z THE FURTHER DIMINISHES WITH WINDS
BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN. CLOUDS LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFT
06Z MON.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW
DEVELOPING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERIODIC CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
307 PM CST
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING HEADLINES AS GALES ARE STILL
EXPECTED.
THE LOW IS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WHILE IT IS
FILLING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FILL AS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN IL. A SECOND LOW IS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO GALES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
TO THE LAKE. WINDS TURN WEST ACROSS THE LAKE AND INCREASE TO LOW END
GALES BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY
COME DOWN BEFORE THE END OF THE GALE WARNING.
WINDS THEN TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AT 20
TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES
SOUTHEAST REACHING THE SE US WEDNESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND
BECOME WEST. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN REGARDS TO THE PATTERN MID NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF FEATURES A DEEP LOW OVER THE LAKE WHILE THE GFS HAS
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. BOTH DO FEATURE A HIGH MOVING OVER THE
PLAINS. SO HAVE WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND/OR NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IF THE LOW IS DEEPER...WINDS COULD BE STRONGER. AS THE
HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK...WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME
WEST.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM SUNDAY TO 9
AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868 UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM
SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...3 AM SUNDAY TO 10
PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN MANY AREAS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S EAST TO THE LOWER 30S WEST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
GUSTY WINDS ARRIVED ON SCHEDULE IN MOST AREAS AS CLEARING WAS
WORKING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN
CAUSING WIDESPREAD DRIFTING SNOW AND POCKETS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH
SOME SITES DROPPING BELOW 2 MIELS AT TIMES. SPS WAS ISSUED EARLIER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS CONCERNS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO RISE NE AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER. ALL AREAS SHOULD GET WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF FORECAST HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
EWD BREAKDOWN OF MEAN TROUGH THROUGH THE LAKES ON TAP THIS PD AS
CONUS HGT PATTN BRIEFLY RELAXES. HWVR THIS WILL YIELD PROBS TDA AS
LLJ RAMPS QUICKLY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR JET LIFTING OUT THROUGH
THE ERN LAKES. PRIMARY QN IS HOW DEEP SFC BASED MIXED LYR CAN DVLP
OVERTOP DECENT SNOWPACK ACRS THE AREA. RUC ALG W/VARIOUS BUFR SNDG
DATA SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MIXING TO TAP INTO MUCH HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
JUST OFF THE DECK WITHIN A CORE OF 35KT FLW AT H95. THUS
W/POTENTIAL 35-40 MPH GUSTS...XPC SIG BLOWING/DRIFTING FM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE ABATING THIS EVENING.
SECONDARY CONCERNS EXIST THIS EVENING AHD OF NEXT CDFNT DROPPING SWD
ACRS THE LAKES. DEEPENING SFC BASED MOIST LYR ALG SFC CDFNT AND
SHALLOW ASCENT INDICATE A PD OF FZDZ PSBL BFR ADDNL SATURATION DEPTH
WITHIN COOLING LL COLUMN SPRTS -SHSN AND ADDED MENTION GIVEN GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF FZDZ VS -SHSN OCCURRING UNTIL LT TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
VERY COLD PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD WITH REGION LOCKED IN
UNDER DEEP EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES IN
PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVES
MON NIGHT/TUE AND AGAIN WED NIGHT/THU.
COLD ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT MON
WITH TEMPS STEADY/FALLING. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
AFFORD SOME LIGHT ACCUMS. GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING
FIRST IN PARADE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND SECONDARY SFC TROUGH THROUGH
LATE MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT. COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2" OF FLUFF WITH WAVE
GIVEN DEEP DGZ.
ATTENTION IN WAKE OF THIS WAVE WILL TURN TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES (20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TUE-WED AND POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT MON NIGHT-TUE MORNING IN FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI. SYNOPTIC FLOW LOCKS IN NORTHERLY DURING THIS
TIME WITH EXTREME OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND FLOW DIRECTED PARALLEL
TO LONG AXIS OF LAKE LIKELY SUPPORTING STRONG CONVERGENCE. EXPECT
EXCELLENT SNOW GROWTH / RATIOS 30:1 OR SO / WITH OMEGA BULLSEYE IN
UPPER PORTION OF DGZ. MESOSCALE PROCESSES (MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT/LAND
BREEZE/AGGREGATE TROUGHING/ETC) WILL NO DOUBT MODULATE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TRAJECTORIES AND WHERE POTENTIAL INTENSE SINGLE BAND WILL SET
UP. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON ANY PERIOD 4 HEADLINES GIVEN NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING...WITH BEST CHANCES
FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWS/IMPACTS IN LA PORTE/STARKE/WESTERN ST JOE
IN/BERRIEN COUNTIES.
NEXT PV ANOMALY DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WED-WED
EVE WITH NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW EVENT LATER WED NIGHT-THU. AND YEP...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BY LATER FRI INTO SAT
PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ON FOR THE TIME BEING AT BOTH TAF SITES.
CONCERNS EXIST WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR OR
POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR VSBYS FROM BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KTS OR MORE (GUSTS OVER 30 KTS) PERSIST AT
BOTH SITES. WILL MONITOR SITES NEXT HOUR OR 2 AND MAY NEED TO
AMEND TO COVER THIS...BUT THINK AMOUNT OF TIME THIS WILL OCCUR
ENOUGH TO IMPACT FLGT OPERATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN HALF.
MAINTAINED WIND SHEAR MENTION WITH VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.
FOCUS THE SHIFTS TO INCREASING LL MSTR MAINLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY HI RES SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A
NEARLY SATURATED LAYER THROUGH ABOUT 5000 FT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RATHER WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE MVFR RANGE.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL LIFT WITH THIS INCREASED MSTR AND
TEMPERATURES UNDER 12 C ALOFT WILL CAUSE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS OF A LOT OF POCKETS OF
CLEAR AREAS WAS TEMPTED TO BACK OFF ON CIGS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MSTR SHOULD STILL BE AROUND TO WARRANT
HOLDING ON BUT KEEP ANY FZDZ MENTION OUT AND ADRESS CLOSER WITH
00Z ISSUANCE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
615 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN MANY AREAS. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S EAST TO THE LOWER 30S
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
EWD BREAKDOWN OF MEAN TROUGH THROUGH THE LAKES ON TAP THIS PD AS
CONUS HGT PATTN BRIEFLY RELAXES. HWVR THIS WILL YIELD PROBS TDA AS
LLJ RAMPS QUICKLY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR JET LIFTING OUT THROUGH
THE ERN LAKES. PRIMARY QN IS HOW DEEP SFC BASED MIXED LYR CAN DVLP
OVERTOP DECENT SNOWPACK ACRS THE AREA. RUC ALG W/VARIOUS BUFR SNDG
DATA SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MIXING TO TAP INTO MUCH HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
JUST OFF THE DECK WITHIN A CORE OF 35KT FLW AT H95. THUS
W/POTENTIAL 35-40 MPH GUSTS...XPC SIG BLOWING/DRIFTING FM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE ABATING THIS EVENING.
SECONDARY CONCERNS EXIST THIS EVENING AHD OF NEXT CDFNT DROPPING SWD
ACRS THE LAKES. DEEPENING SFC BASED MOIST LYR ALG SFC CDFNT AND
SHALLOW ASCENT INDICATE A PD OF FZDZ PSBL BFR ADDNL SATURATION DEPTH
WITHIN COOLING LL COLUMN SPRTS -SHSN AND ADDED MENTION GIVEN GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF FZDZ VS -SHSN OCCURRING UNTIL LT TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
VERY COLD PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD WITH REGION LOCKED IN
UNDER DEEP EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES IN
PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVES
MON NIGHT/TUE AND AGAIN WED NIGHT/THU.
COLD ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT MON
WITH TEMPS STEADY/FALLING. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
AFFORD SOME LIGHT ACCUMS. GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING
FIRST IN PARADE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND SECONDARY SFC TROUGH THROUGH
LATE MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT. COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2" OF FLUFF WITH WAVE
GIVEN DEEP DGZ.
ATTENTION IN WAKE OF THIS WAVE WILL TURN TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES (20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TUE-WED AND POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT MON NIGHT-TUE MORNING IN FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI. SYNOPTIC FLOW LOCKS IN NORTHERLY DURING THIS
TIME WITH EXTREME OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND FLOW DIRECTED PARALLEL
TO LONG AXIS OF LAKE LIKELY SUPPORTING STRONG CONVERGENCE. EXPECT
EXCELLENT SNOW GROWTH / RATIOS 30:1 OR SO / WITH OMEGA BULLSEYE IN
UPPER PORTION OF DGZ. MESOSCALE PROCESSES (MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT/LAND
BREEZE/AGGREGATE TROUGHING/ETC) WILL NO DOUBT MODULATE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TRAJECTORIES AND WHERE POTENTIAL INTENSE SINGLE BAND WILL SET
UP. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON ANY PERIOD 4 HEADLINES GIVEN NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING...WITH BEST CHANCES
FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWS/IMPACTS IN LA PORTE/STARKE/WESTERN ST JOE
IN/BERRIEN COUNTIES.
NEXT PV ANOMALY DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WED-WED
EVE WITH NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW EVENT LATER WED NIGHT-THU. AND YEP...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BY LATER FRI INTO SAT
PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
SECONDARY BAND OF STRATUS THINNING RAPIDLY ALG WRN FLANK IN
RESPONSE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W LEAD BAND OF MID-HIGH CLDS ADVTG
SEWD OUT OF WI. OTRWS PRIMARY PROB THIS PD CONTS TO BE RAPID SEWD
DVLPMNT OF STG LLJ CORE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR JET STREAK
LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE ERN LAKES AND NOTED IN UPSTREAM VWP PLOTS.
RETAINED PRIOR LLWS MENTION ISSUANCE FOR XPCD TURBULENT BNDRY LYR
FLW DVLPG AFT SUNRISE AND PEAKING THIS AFTN W/SFC GUSTS AOA 30KTS
LIKELY. LOW BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC 15-21Z.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
335 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST
AREAS AS BRIEF CLEARING OCCURS. OTHERWISE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN MANY AREAS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE UPPER 20S EAST TO THE LOWER 30S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
EWD BREAKDOWN OF MEAN TROUGH THROUGH THE LAKES ON TAP THIS PD AS
CONUS HGT PATTN BRIEFLY RELAXES. HWVR THIS WILL YIELD PROBS TDA AS
LLJ RAMPS QUICKLY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR JET LIFTING OUT THROUGH
THE ERN LAKES. PRIMARY QN IS HOW DEEP SFC BASED MIXED LYR CAN DVLP
OVERTOP DECENT SNOWPACK ACRS THE AREA. RUC ALG W/VARIOUS BUFR SNDG
DATA SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MIXING TO TAP INTO MUCH HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
JUST OFF THE DECK WITHIN A CORE OF 35KT FLW AT H95. THUS
W/POTENTIAL 35-40 MPH GUSTS...XPC SIG BLOWING/DRIFTING FM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE ABATING THIS EVENING.
SECONDARY CONCERNS EXIST THIS EVENING AHD OF NEXT CDFNT DROPPING SWD
ACRS THE LAKES. DEEPENING SFC BASED MOIST LYR ALG SFC CDFNT AND
SHALLOW ASCENT INDICATE A PD OF FZDZ PSBL BFR ADDNL SATURATION DEPTH
WITHIN COOLING LL COLUMN SPRTS -SHSN AND ADDED MENTION GIVEN GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF FZDZ VS -SHSN OCCURRING UNTIL LT TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
VERY COLD PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD WITH REGION LOCKED IN
UNDER DEEP EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES IN
PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVES
MON NIGHT/TUE AND AGAIN WED NIGHT/THU.
COLD ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT MON
WITH TEMPS STEADY/FALLING. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
AFFORD SOME LIGHT ACCUMS. GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING
FIRST IN PARADE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND SECONDARY SFC TROUGH THROUGH
LATE MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT. COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2" OF FLUFF WITH WAVE
GIVEN DEEP DGZ.
ATTENTION IN WAKE OF THIS WAVE WILL TURN TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES (20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TUE-WED AND POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT MON NIGHT-TUE MORNING IN FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI. SYNOPTIC FLOW LOCKS IN NORTHERLY DURING THIS
TIME WITH EXTREME OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND FLOW DIRECTED PARALLEL
TO LONG AXIS OF LAKE LIKELY SUPPORTING STRONG CONVERGENCE. EXPECT
EXCELLENT SNOW GROWTH / RATIOS 30:1 OR SO / WITH OMEGA BULLSEYE IN
UPPER PORTION OF DGZ. MESOSCALE PROCESSES (MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT/LAND
BREEZE/AGGREGATE TROUGHING/ETC) WILL NO DOUBT MODULATE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TRAJECTORIES AND WHERE POTENTIAL INTENSE SINGLE BAND WILL SET
UP. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON ANY PERIOD 4 HEADLINES GIVEN NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING...WITH BEST CHANCES
FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWS/IMPACTS IN LA PORTE/STARKE/WESTERN ST JOE
IN/BERRIEN COUNTIES.
NEXT PV ANOMALY DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WED-WED
EVE WITH NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW EVENT LATER WED NIGHT-THU. AND YEP...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BY LATER FRI INTO SAT
PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
SW DISTURBANCE OVR CNTRL OH AND ON THE WAY OUT AS LARGER SCALE LW
TROUGH BREAKS DOWN. RAPID CLRG OCCURRING ON WRN FLANK OF CLD SHIELD
YIELDING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS AND FOSTERING DENSE GROUND FOG
DVLPMNT. HWVR SECONDARY BAND OF STRATUS WITHIN WK LL THERMAL TROUGH
WRAPPING QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF LWR MI SHLD STAVE OFF FOG PERSISTING
FOR MORE THAN FEW HOURS. OTRWS PRIMARY PROB THIS PD WILL BE RAPID
EWD DVLPMNT OF STG LLJ CORE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR JET STREAK
LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE ERN LAKES. ADDED A LLWS MENTION W/06Z
ISSUANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT SHLD BE A TURBULENT BNDRY LYR AFT
SUNRISE AND XPC SWRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 30KTS PSBL TWD 18Z ASSUMING A
SUFFICIENT SFC BASED MIXED LYR CAN DVLP UNDERNEATH STRENGTHENING
INVERSION ALOFT. LOW BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC 15-21Z.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1235 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST
AREAS AS BRIEF CLEARING OCCURS. OTHERWISE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN MANY AREAS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE UPPER 20S EAST TO THE LOWER 30S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014
TWO CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM: DURATION/INTENSITY/AMOUNT OF SNOW
AND MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS WELL FORECAST BY THE MODELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MORNING INITIALIZATIONS WERE NEARLY SPOT ON. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR
DATA SHOW THE DEEPENING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR ASSENT ON
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AREA IS HOLDING TOGETHER WELL. EXPECT TO SEE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA
BETWEEN 2-4 PM EST AND THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST DURING THE
EVENING. AM CONCERNED THAT THE DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND
THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE A VERY NARROW
PRECIPITATION BAND. AS MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW...THIS WILL BE A
RAPIDLY MOVING SYSTEM AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF FAVORABLE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...THE RAPID TRANSITORY NATURE WILL RESULT
GENERAL AREAS OF SNOWFALL WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL.
BY MIDNIGHT...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND
THIS WILL BRING THE SNOWFALL TO A QUICK END FROM WEST TO EAST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS/STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT THIS LEADS TO THE SECOND CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD. AS THE
TROF OPENS UP AND THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING SKIES IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. AS A RESULT HAVE TRIMMED THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES. THE RUC AND LOCAL WRF ARE BY FAR THE
COOLEST OF THE MODELS AT THIS TIME AND GIVEN THE CLEARING NOTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...FEEL COMPELLED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
SOLUTIONS. ONLY A MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE.
EXPECT TO SEE A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH FAVORED AREAS NEAR THE SHORELINE AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
AND NORTH OF US-30.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014
ONCE AGAIN VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG TERM WITH PERSISTENT BUT
ACTIVE PATTERN. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER WEST COAST. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP THE POLAR EXPRESS OF SHORT WAVES ON TRACK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING FOR ABOUT THE
ENTIRE PERIOD BUT BACKING AND VEERING WINDS MAKE BAND ORIENTATION
AND PLACEMENT DIFFICULT AT BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE.
NEXT ARCTIC BOUNDARY STILL SET TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. EARLY MORNING HIGHS EXPECTED WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DEEPENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD AIR DEEPENS.
LAKE EFFECT TO LIKELY BE SLOW AND LIGHT AT FIRST BUT AS SECONDARY
FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVE IN LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE CRANK INTO
FULL GEAR. STILL EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SINGLE BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST BERRIEN COUNTY AND PORTER COUNTY IN NW INDIANA.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF CONVERGENCE. UPSTREAM CONDITIONING
EXPECTED WITH LONG FETCH AND EXTREME DELTA TS SO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY...JUST A QUESTION OF EXACTLY WHERE. STILL NEED
A FEW MORE MODEL ITERATIONS BEFORE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO PICK UP THESE PERIODS.
REST OF THE WEEK TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF MEANDERING LAKE EFFECT
BANDS AND COLD TEMPS. AS WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING...HIGHS IN SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO TO 6 BELOW RIGHT NOW. REALLY
EXPECT SOME COLDER READINGS...ESPECIALLY IF WE DECOUPLE AND ARE
CLEAR TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND FRESH SNOWPACK.
COULD SEE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN RURAL AREAS IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE
AGAIN IF IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FOR NOW STAYED ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF COLDER BLENDS AROUND 5 BELOW.
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND REINFORCED SHOT OF COLD AIR AROUND MID
WEEK WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS GOING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HINT AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE SINGLE BAND BEHIND THIS WAVE. LOWS THU
NIGHT HAVE POTENTIAL TO GO EVEN LOWER THAN CURRENT FCST LOWS IF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES IN AND WE DECOUPLE AGAIN.
SLIGHT MODERATION IN MODELS BEING SHOWN FOR DAY 7 BEFORE NEXT POLAR
EXPRESS SHORT WAVE MOVES IN EARLY IN WEEK TWO PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
SW DISTURBANCE OVR CNTRL OH AND ON THE WAY OUT AS LARGER SCALE LW
TROUGH BREAKS DOWN. RAPID CLRG OCCURRING ON WRN FLANK OF CLD SHIELD
YIELDING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS AND FOSTERING DENSE GROUND FOG
DVLPMNT. HWVR SECONDARY BAND OF STRATUS WITHIN WK LL THERMAL TROUGH
WRAPPING QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF LWR MI SHLD STAVE OFF FOG PERSISTING
FOR MORE THAN FEW HOURS. OTRWS PRIMARY PROB THIS PD WILL BE RAPID
EWD DVLPMNT OF STG LLJ CORE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR JET STREAK
LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE ERN LAKES. ADDED A LLWS MENTION W/06Z
ISSUANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT SHLD BE A TURBULENT BNDRY LYR AFT
SUNRISE AND XPC SWRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 30KTS PSBL TWD 18Z ASSUMING A
SUFFICIENT SFC BASED MIXED LYR CAN DVLP UNDERNEATH STRENGTHENING
INVERSION ALOFT. LOW BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC 15-21Z.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
729 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. THE CHANGES WERE MAINLY NEEDED FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PORTION WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG INTO THE AREA. IN THAT SAME AREA THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 513 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF THE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKING IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
NE/KS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE APPARENT BY DRY LAYER ON WV IMAGERY AND
PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SOUTHERN NE/NORTHERN KS...IS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA.
REGARDING CURRENT WIND ADVISORY...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE
CURRENTLY HITTING CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 39-40KT REPORTED. WHILE IT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD YET...UPSTREAM OBS ARE WELL OVER CRITERIA...AND AN
AREA OF BLOWING DUST ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE. WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME WITH
PEAK DAYTIME MIXING THAT I AM COMFORTABLE LETTING THE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AS IS. I DO HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT NEAR RFW
CRITERIA BEING MET...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
HIGHER TD VALUES ADVECTING FROM THE NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SO I
WILL MONITOR SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RH WILL PROBABLY HOLD STEADY OR
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LOCATIONS WHERE
WINDS GO CALM COULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS GOOD WAA ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING LEE TROUGH
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO MILD TEMPS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. RH VALUES RANGING FROM 13-18 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA COULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS ON
NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...AND I AM WONDERING WHETHER WE WILL
REALLY SEE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER...SO I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING
ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. POPS WILL DECREASE WITH TIME FROM EAST
TO WEST WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH
THE LIFT THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE
BRIEF WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW, GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH. PLAN TO HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MOST AVAILABLE TO FLURRIES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. MOISTURE DRIES SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SO POPS WILL GO BACK TO NIL.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH
MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER
50S SUNDAY COOLING DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MONDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 437 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER AT KGLD FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS...THERE WILL BE CEILINGS/OBSCURATIONS ALOFT
JUST ABOVE VFR DUE TO BLOWING DUST. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL
HAVE A LOT OF CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED. THE GUSTY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
12Z. THEN A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH CAUSING A WIND
SHIFT TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
708 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014
The current forecast was tracking pretty well, specifically in
terms of expected winds and gust speeds. Made some minor
adjustments to these as well as temperature and dewpoint based on
timing of the coldest incoming temps. The main change was to add a
chance for flurries for the northeastern portion of Kansas.
Flurries have been ongoing across eastern Nebraska and that
airmass should track into areas from Nemaha, Jackson, and Shawnee
counties and points east this evening. Forecast soundings from the
last several runs of the RAP and the NAM support this in
maintaining 20 to 40 J/KG of CAPE through around 4000 feet AGL
during this period in a layer that coincides with the dendritic
growth temperature zone. A few of these flurries could combine
with the wind to briefly reduce visibility to one mile or less.
Barjenbruch
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014
Upper wave was moving south in northwest flow this afternoon across
Nebraska and into northern Kansas. Water vapor showing area of
subsidence working its way into northern Kansas. Temperatures have
warmed into the lower and mid 50s this afternoon with the colder air
poised to come into eastern Kansas tonight.
Forecast soundings keep lower boundary layer well mixed tonight with
winds near 39 kts near the top of the mixed layer. With the strong
subsidence behind the wave and a tight pressure gradient in
northeast Kansas tonight will see winds sustained around 25 mph with
gusts to near 45 mph for much of the evening. The pressure gradient
weakens after 06Z and should see a slow decrease in the wind. Will
issue a wind advisory for much of northeast and east central Kansas
from 6 PM until Midnight. Strong cold air advection brings 850 mb
temperatures down into the -11C to -15C degree range by 12Z Tuesday.
Lowered temperatures down into the single digits along and north of
I-70 with low teens south of I-35.
Expect a less windy day on Tuesday as high pressure moves across the
cwa with return flow in the afternoon from the south. Temperatures
will be cooler and range from the lower 20s in the far northeast to
the lower 30s near central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014
Another clipper system will drop southeast across the Great Lakes
into Wednesday with a reinforcing shot of Arctic air which will
begin to affect the far northern counties by midday and the southern
counties in the afternoon. Therefore...lows Wednesday morning will
generally be from the mid teens northeast corner to lower 20s south
and west... with highs making it into the 30s by midday...but likely
falling through the afternoon as 850 temps cool some 8-12 degrees
C...with 850 mb temps near -20 C in the far northeast corner by
Thursday sunrise. Low temps will be in the single digits...but
winds will lower wind chill indices into the -14 to -18 deg c range.
Highs Thursday will only rise back into the teens. As the sfc
highs slides off to the east by Friday...warm air advection will
keep lows to 5 to 10 above with temps steadily rising into the
30s and lower 40s for highs on Friday. The northwest flow pattern
will hold through the weekend with another weaker clipper
moderating temps into the 40s and lower 50s on Saturday before the
passage of the clipper cools temps for Sunday into the upper 30s
and 40s...with colder air arriving Sunday night with highs Monday
in the upper 20s and low to mid 30s. Will introduce a slight
chance for light snow on Monday as a weak shortwave trough
approaches the area in the northwest flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 504 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014
Winds will gust in the 35 to 40 kt range at TOP/FOE (about 5 kts
lighter at MHK) through at least 04Z with a very slow decrease
thereafter. There seems to be a good chance for sct to bkn cloud
cover in the 2k to 3k foot range between 04Z and 10Z, with the
best chance for MVFR ceilings at TOP/FOE. Expect VFR and lighter
winds for all sites beyond 10Z or so and through the remainder of
the TAF.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ010>012-023-024-
026-038>040-055-056.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
516 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 513 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF THE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKING IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
NE/KS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE APPARENT BY DRY LAYER ON WV IMAGERY AND
PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SOUTHERN NE/NORTHERN KS...IS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA.
REGARDING CURRENT WIND ADVISORY...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE
CURRENTLY HITTING CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 39-40KT REPORTED. WHILE IT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD YET...UPSTREAM OBS ARE WELL OVER CRITERIA...AND AN
AREA OF BLOWING DUST ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE. WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME WITH
PEAK DAYTIME MIXING THAT I AM COMFORTABLE LETTING THE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AS IS. I DO HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT NEAR RFW
CRITERIA BEING MET...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
HIGHER TD VALUES ADVECTING FROM THE NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SO I
WILL MONITOR SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RH WILL PROBABLY HOLD STEADY OR
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LOCATIONS WHERE
WINDS GO CALM COULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS GOOD WAA ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING LEE TROUGH
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO MILD TEMPS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. RH VALUES RANGING FROM 13-18 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA COULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS ON
NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...AND I AM WONDERING WHETHER WE WILL
REALLY SEE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER...SO I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING
ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. POPS WILL DECREASE WITH TIME FROM EAST
TO WEST WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH
THE LIFT THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE
BRIEF WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW, GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH. PLAN TO HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MOST AVAILABLE TO FLURRIES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. MOISTURE DRIES SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SO POPS WILL GO BACK TO NIL.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH
MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER
50S SUNDAY COOLING DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MONDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 437 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER AT KGLD FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS...THERE WILL BE CEILINGS/OBSCURATIONS ALOFT
JUST ABOVE VFR DUE TO BLOWING DUST. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL
HAVE A LOT OF CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED. THE GUSTY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
12Z. THEN A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH CAUSING A WIND
SHIFT TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
441 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
NE/KS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE APPARENT BY DRY LAYER ON WV IMAGERY AND
PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SOUTHERN NE/NORTHERN KS...IS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA.
REGARDING CURRENT WIND ADVISORY...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE
CURRENTLY HITTING CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 39-40KT REPORTED. WHILE IT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD YET...UPSTREAM OBS ARE WELL OVER CRITERIA...AND AN
AREA OF BLOWING DUST ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE. WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME WITH
PEAK DAYTIME MIXING THAT I AM COMFORTABLE LETTING THE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AS IS. I DO HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT NEAR RFW
CRITERIA BEING MET...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
HIGHER TD VALUES ADVECTING FROM THE NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SO I
WILL MONITOR SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RH WILL PROBABLY HOLD STEADY OR
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LOCATIONS WHERE
WINDS GO CALM COULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS GOOD WAA ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING LEE TROUGH
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO MILD TEMPS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. RH VALUES RANGING FROM 13-18 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA COULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS ON
NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...AND I AM WONDERING WHETHER WE WILL
REALLY SEE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER...SO I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING
ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. POPS WILL DECREASE WITH TIME FROM EAST
TO WEST WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH
THE LIFT THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE
BRIEF WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW, GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH. PLAN TO HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MOST AVAILABLE TO FLURRIES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. MOISTURE DRIES SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SO POPS WILL GO BACK TO NIL.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH
MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER
50S SUNDAY COOLING DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MONDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 437 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER AT KGLD FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS...THERE WILL BE CEILINGS/OBSCURATIONS ALOFT
JUST ABOVE VFR DUE TO BLOWING DUST. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL
HAVE A LOT OF CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED. THE GUSTY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
12Z. THEN A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH CAUSING A WIND
SHIFT TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-091.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
312 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2014
Our uneventful clipper system is quickly tracking east. Guidance 24
hours ago was in good agreement that 1-2 inches of snow was likely
across portions of the forecast area, thus warranting the issuance
of a Winter Weather Advisory. The rather poor job of numerical
guidance handling the dry lower atmosphere, the warm-air advection
ahead of the surface low, and certainly my interpretation of this
data and past trends this winter did not produce a good forecast.
The lingering dry lower atmosphere severely cut down our snow
chances late yesterday afternoon and evening. Then, the warm-air
advection ahead of the system overnight boosted temperatures into
the middle 30s over snowpack regions, with upper 30s and lower 40s
across southern Kentucky. Precipitation that was originally forecast
to be snow was now falling in the form of rain. There was some snow
observed, so it was not all rain, but a large majority was liquid.
Pretty disappointing to say the least.
Breezy/gusty west and northwest winds are behind the precip early
this morning, with plenty of time to help dry any pavement that
happened to get wet before any freezing temperatures arrive later
this morning. So, believe there will not be any roadway concerns
this morning from this system. With this, have cancelled the Winter
Weather Advisory. However, remnant slick roads from the previous
snowfall are still possible.
As this system exits this morning, we will enter a dry stretch for
the remainder of the short-term period. The rest of the day will
feature clearing skies from west to east and will remain mostly
clear tonight. West-northwest winds will transition to southwesterly
breezes by the afternoon and remain that way through tonight.
Temperatures should range from around 30 across our northeast to
upper 30s across our southwest CWA. With steady southwest winds
tonight in the 10-15 mph range, expect temperatures to stay up a
bit, even with clear skies. Temperatures should range from middle
20s to lower 30s. Clouds will gradually increase from the north
Monday as a cold front drops south into the Ohio Valley. Still
expecting a dry day and temperatures will edge up a few degrees,
with middle 30s to middle 40s on tap.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2014
Broad eastern CONUS trof will dominate the upper pattern through
most of the coming week. Main challenge will be the timing and
sensible weather impacts of any in a series of Clippers that will
swing through the base of this trough, and the extent of the Arctic
intrusions behind each system.
First Clipper swings through late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Surface reflection is weak, but models show the upper impulse on the
back end becoming a bit sharper as it digs into the Ohio Valley.
Therefore went for the more bullish POPs in the NAM MOS and will
carry a solid chance of snow showers across roughly the northeastern
half of the area. Temp curve has been massaged to show a slow fall
Monday night, and little or no daytime recovery on Tuesday as 850mb
temps plunge to around -18C.
Unseasonably cold air mass will take over for the remainder of the
work week, with another Clipper to reinforce the Arctic high on
Wednesday night. This system looks like more of a glancing blow, so
for now will limit POPs to a slight chance for snow showers across
the Bluegrass. Thursday temps will be similar to Tuesday, but with a
colder start and decent NW winds as the high builds in, morning wind
chills will be near or below zero over southern Indiana and parts of
north central Kentucky.
Thermal trof looks progressive enough that temps will begin to
recover by Friday, but will not really approach seasonal normals
until Saturday, when a WSW gradient tightens up between the surface
high along the Gulf coast, and the next Clipper diving out of the
Upper Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1235 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2014
The final wave of precip is tracking eastward across Kentucky. With
areal coverage decreasing, will just run with VCSH early this
morning. Most of the precip is falling as rain, with a few obs of
snow, but not many. So, no impacts are expected with this precip.
However, LAMP and RAP guidance as well as upstream obs indicate cigs
will drop to MVFR post precip at SDF and LEX, and gradually improve
to VFR through the morning hours. Still believe BWG will remain VFR
through the period. Southwest winds will become breezy and
transition to westerly through the early morning hours, then back to
southwesterly after daybreak and remain breezy through the afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........MJP
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........MJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1255 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO FURTHER TAKE DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS...POPS...
AND DEWPOINTS. VERY DRY AIR...WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW THE LATEST CONSSHORT GUIDANCE...HAVE SOPPED UP ANY PCPN FALLING
OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
THRUST OF PCPN...STILL AWFULLY LIGHT ON THE MOSAIC RADAR...IS JUST
NOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. THE HRRR AND LATEST
NAM12 KEEP THE QPF WITH THIS QUITE LIMITED. IN ADDITION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE ALSO
ADDING P-TYPE ISSUES TO ONGOING CONCERNS FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
TONIGHT. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS...AND BARRING
ANY UPTICK IN PCPN COVERAGE...OR SNOW REPORTS OF SUBSTANCE...AS THIS
WAVE MOVES EAST WILL BE DROPPING THE ADVISORIES WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
WILL STILL CARRY AN SPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THOUGH...FOR LINGERING
CONCERNS OF A DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW FALLING ON ROADS THAT ARE
PROBABLY SUBFREEZING IN PLACES. ALL IN ALL THIS SYSTEM...SIMILAR TO
THE ONE LAST WEEK...HAS BEEN A BUST SO FAR. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. SOME SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED NORTH OF I 64. BASED ON THE NCEP
ANALYSIS...THERE IS A WARM FRONT NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT STERLING
TO PIKEVILLE. THERE IS A LOW JUST NORTH OF DECATUR ILLINOIS WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THOUGH THE TIP OF ILLINOIS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DUE EAST...SO IT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM 1 AM THROUGH 6
AM. THIS IS WHEN THE MOST WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. RIGHT NOW JUST EXPECTING UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW OVER MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MOUNTAIN AREAS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER MAY SEE UP TO
TWO INCHES OF SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN
FEATURE BEING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH...NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. A TRACK TO OUR NORTH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
SNOW OF SIGNIFICANCE...EVEN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. MODELS DO GENERATE
PRECIP TONIGHT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT. PLUS...TEMPS IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA ARE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH MOS DATA AND THE RAW NAM SHOWING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS FOR PART
OF THE NIGHT. THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR
LESS. IF AN ADVISORY HAD NOT BEEN INHERITED...ONE WOULD NOT BE ISSUED
AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...FOR CANCELING AN ADVISORY THAT IS ALREADY
IN PLACE...THE BURDEN OF PROOF TENDS TO BE ON SHOWING THAT THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CHANCE THAT ANY PROBLEMS WILL RESULT...SO AS NOT TO
RESULT IN A FLIP/FLOP FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...WILL LEAVE IT IN
PLACE...AND IF IT DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES...
EVENING OR MID SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT.
AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PULL OUT ON
SUNDAY...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP...WITH FAIR
WEATHER THEN PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CONUS. A QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS WHETHER OR
NOT OUR VALLEYS CAN DECOUPLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT HAVE
ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF A RIDGE/VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE...BUT
FURTHER ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014
COLD WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIKE THE RULE FOR THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PROGRESSIVE
SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW FROM TIME TO TIME. TIMING OF THESE
MINOR IMPULSES REMAINS CHALLENGING THIS FAR OUT...SO STUCK FAIRLY
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND INHERITED FORECAST.
MONDAY WILL START OUT DRY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE
APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING
THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. A GOOD SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
MAY WIND UP BEING MORE IN THE MORNING IF THE TIMING HOLDS. LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GET DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF
THE VALLEYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN HOLD FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS BEYOND...AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
DRIER WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT LOOKS TO BRUSH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN
THE 20S...AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.
READINGS WILL THEN MODIFY A BIT INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO ABOVE FREEZING.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND...THE MODELS HAD BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION PRETTY FAR
SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. THE LATEST 12Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS
SCENARIO...KEEPING IT MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN STATES...WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA LIKELY NOT GETTING AS COLD AS WHAT WE
WILL SEE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WORKWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVN FORECAST...
THOUGH THERE LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR FROM BOTH CIGS AND VIS
WITH THE REMNANT OF THE PCPN COMING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS. THE
LOWER CIGS WILL LINGER...IN THE WAKE OF THE FLEETING SNOW...INTO MID
MORNING BEFORE THESE TOO BREAK UP FOR VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE REST OF
DAY...SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST FOR TIME AS THE LOW
PASSES WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 15 KTS OR SO...BEFORE THEY SWING
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1235 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 939 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2014
Combination of dry air and warm temperatures at the surface has led
to no appreciable snowfall across the area. In fact, a few snow
flurries has been the most that we`ve seen this evening. However,
we have a batch of rain/snow showers out to the west that is pushing
through southern IL. These will pass through southern IN and
central KY overnight.
Thermal profiles still show some warmer air near the surface and we
still have temperatures out to our west in the upper 30s to the
lower 40s. So as this shower activity pushes in, it will probably
start off as rain showers or a rain/snow mix that transitions over
to snow during the overnight period. With the expected mix,
snowfall accumulations overnight look less...with a dusting to
perhaps as much as an inch in some spots. With temperatures falling
into the upper 20s by morning, we could have some travel problems
late tonight and Sunday morning.
With regards to the advisory...after coordinating with WFO JKL, plan
on leaving the advisory up for impact sake. The rain/snow mix going
over to snow late will probably lead to some very minor
accumulations. That, along with the expected temperature drop could
lead to some slick spots overnight and towards dawn Sunday.
We will have updated forecast products and grids out shortly.
Update issued 622 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2014
Model proximity soundings, ACARS soundings and radar reflectivity
trends show that antecedent dry airmass in place is really eating up
the precipitation band that has been working in from the west. The
column is gradually saturating from the top downward, but by the
time this occurs in the I-65 corridor, much of the precipitation
will be off to the east. In general, it looks like we`ll probably
see a little light snow this evening across central KY and southeast
Indiana, but the main snows will be located well north of here.
Overall, not expecting much in the way of accumulation this evening
with this initial band moving through. A dusting to a couple of
tenths of an inch at best looks more likely. With temperatures
staying around freezing, we could have some slick spots develop this
evening...mainly NE of a line from near Fort Knox to London KY.
Though with the clipper moving north of us, some light warm air
advection may push temperatures a degree or two higher this evening
before more nocturnal cooling commences later this evening.
Some additional snow shower activity over in the St. Louis area will
move into the region later tonight. These snow showers will be
scattered in nature and may produce another light dusting to a
couple of tenths of an inch of accumulation. While model soundings
do show the potential for convective snows, it should be noted that
the moisture profiles are quite shallow. Thus, these showers will
not be as efficient as those we saw Friday morning. However, we
will continue to monitor this activity through the evening hours.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 235 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2014
...A Round of Light Snow, Followed by Snow Showers Later This
Evening...
The main focus will be on the Clipper system moving through the CWA
later this evening and overnight. Overall, am going to downplay the
event a bit as main band of snow associated with the warm conveyor
belt wrapping into the system will quickly move through with only
light to briefly moderate snow. This band can currently be seen in
southern Illinois and watch for it to swing into southern IN and
north central KY over the next few hours. This initial snowfall will
waste some time saturating the column as it has some dry air to
overcome. Therefore, only expect around a half an inch up to 1 inch
across southern IN and north central Kentucky as it slides through.
Best timing with this band will be 4-7 PM EST west of I-65 and 7-10
PM EST east of I-65.
Thereafter, really just expect scattered snow showers through the
rest of the evening into the overnight, with only light additional
accumulations with each shower. Some of the forecast soundings show
showers taking on a bit more of a convective look later tonight,
however deeper moisture will already be exiting so don`t think the
showers will be quite as efficient as we saw yesterday. Do
anticipate some brief moderate snow and reduced visibilities in any of
these showers if traveling.
Overall, have bumped snow totals down, but will leave the Advisory
in place for a couple of reasons. 1.) We still expect a quick
hitting band of snow that could produce periods of moderate snowfall
and accumulations up to 1", initially. This could lead to some
travel problems. 2.) Lingering snow showers into the overnight may
continue to provide additional light accumulations. The most likely
locations with the best shot to see 1" to locally 2" will be across
Orange to Jefferson county Indiana, then over to Harrison county
Kentucky. South of this line, everyone else should expect up to 1".
Main reason to leave our eastern counties in the Advisory will be
for the upslope enhanced snow showers later this evening where up to
1" will be possible.
Did want to mention that areas outside of the Advisory will also see
a mix of rain/snow initially and will change to scattered snow
showers later this evening. A dusting up to a half an inch will be
possible.
Otherwise, surface temperatures have warmed into the mid and upper
20s in most spots, with several obs in south central KY in the
lower 30s. These temps will continue to slowly rise over the next
few hours on a warm advective component, and despite the heavy cloud
cover. Temperatures will likely hover in the low 30s for much of the
overnight as we stay in the warm sector of the clipper until just
after Midnight. Temperatures will begin to fall back into the upper
20s toward dawn.
May see a few lingering flurries in our east to start the day on
Sunday, however expect skies to clear pretty quickly from west to
east thereafter. Highs tomorrow will be somewhat dependent on how
much snow falls or snowpack remains, but in general expect low 30s
north to mid and upper 30s central and south.
Tomorrow night will feature mostly clear skies and steady SW winds.
This will help keep the boundary layer mixy enough for lows to only
drop into the upper 20s to around 30. Colder temperatures may be
possible dependent on lingering snow pack and decoupled valleys.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2014
A broad upper level trough with embedded clippers/cold air
intrusions will continue over the Midwest through much of the long
term period. However, there is more uncertainty for the Thurs-Sat
forecast as to how far south the broad upper trough will remain and
the exact southern extent of cold air intrusions.
For Mon night/Tues, another clipper system looks to quickly swing
through the region potentially bringing some light snow accums.
Forcing with this clipper doesn`t look quite a good as in previous
clippers so snow accums may be limited to a half inch or less.
Behind this clipper, cold air certainly looks to follow with breezy
conditions on Tues. While Monday`s highs will likely warm into the
upper 30s to mid 40s on a southwesterly flow, Tuesday`s highs will
likely be limited to the low to mid 20s over much of the area.
Wed/Wed night another quick hitting clipper looks to pass mainly to
the north of our region but 12Z ensembles do indicate a decent
signal for some isld snow showers so will include a 20% chance with
this forecast package over southern Indiana, northern KY, and east
central KY. This will re-enforce cold air over the region with
another breezy, cold day expected on Thurs. Highs on Wed should
range throughout the 20s with highs on Thurs dropping back into the
upper teens to mid 20s.
Low temps will range through the single digits to mid teens Wed
morning through Friday morning.
For Thurs-Sat the forecast becomes a little more uncertain as models
vary on if the western ridge will break down some as an upper low
potentially gets trapped off the southern California coast. These
features may cause our upstream trough to weaken/lift and push east
a smidge. Thus, recent models have generally come in drier and
somewhat warmer for next weekend. Will continue a dry forecast and
cautiously increase temps into the upper 20s/30s for Fri and 30s to
lower 40s for Saturday. GFS and ECMWF op models really disagree on
if we get a colder air intrusion at the beginning of next week. Stay
tuned!
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1235 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2014
The final wave of precip is tracking eastward across Kentucky. With
areal coverage decreasing, will just run with VCSH early this
morning. Most of the precip is falling as rain, with a few obs of
snow, but not many. So, no impacts are expected with this precip.
However, LAMP and RAP guidance as well as upstream obs indicate cigs
will drop to MVFR post precip at SDF and LEX, and gradually improve
to VFR through the morning hours. Still believe BWG will remain VFR
through the period. Southwest winds will become breezy and
transition to westerly through the early morning hours, then back to
southwesterly after daybreak and remain breezy through the afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning
FOR KYZ025-028>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077-078-082.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning
FOR INZ076>079-083-084-090>092.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......MJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
644 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ALF OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN CUTOFF UPR LO OVER QUEBEC AND RDG ALONG
THE W COAST. AT THE SFC...ARCTIC HI PRES IS CENTERED OVER SCENTRAL
CANADA. N FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -29C
AT PICKLE LAKE AND MOOSONEE IN ONTARIO...ACRS LK SUP IS CAUSING NMRS
WIND PARALLEL BANDS OF LK EFFECT SN THAT ARE AFFECTING DOWNSTREAM
AREAS NEAR THE BIG LAKE DESPITE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI AS WELL AS THE
FEED OF VERY DRY LLVL ARCTIC AIR. 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS SHOWED INVRN
BASE JUST BLO H9 UNDER THIS SUBSIDENCE. THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
HAS CAUSED SKIES TO TURN PCLDY OVER THE SCENTRAL. THERE IS ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV OVER THE DAKOTAS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALF...BUT
THIS DISTURBANCE IS ON A TRACK THAT WL TAKE IT WELL TO THE SW OF UPR
MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LES POPS AND SN AMOUNTS
AS WELL AS WIND CHILLS AND GOING HEADLINES.
TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC UNDER
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALF AND ON THE NRN FRINGES OF DAKOTA CLIPPER
SAILING SEWD TO THE S OF THE CWA. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO FALL TO AS
LO AS ABOUT -25C...SO LES WL CONTINUE IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS. BUT
AS THE SFC HI PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA SINKS TO SW MN BY 12Z TUE...
THE LLVL FLOW OVER UPR MI IS FCST TO BACK SLOWLY FM THE N TOWARD THE
NW WITH TIME...SO THE SN BANDS SHOULD SHIFT ACCORDINGLY. ALTHOUGH
THE LARGER SCALE H925-85 WL BE BACKING...A NUMBER OF THE HIER RES
MODELS STILL SHOW A NEAR SFC ENE LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF ONTARIO
ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING IMPACTING THE ERN CWA AND SHARPENING
LLVL CNVGC IN ALGER/WRN LUCE/ NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. DESPITE THE
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE... FCST SDNGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW INVRN BASES
UP NEAR 7K FT WITH LONGER FETCH OVER MORE OPEN ICE FREE WATER
ENHANCING MIXING. ALTHOUGH THE DGZ IS FCST TO LOWER TO WITHIN 1-2K
FT OF THE SFC...THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR GOING LES ADVY FOR THIS AREA.
SHIFTING WINDS/MORE ICE COVER OVER WRN LK SUP/LOWER INVRN BASE NEAR
3-4K FT/NEAR ABSENCE OF DGZ OVER THE W WITH COLDER...MORE UNMODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES WL FALL OVER THE
W. SINCE THE BACKING FLOW WL INTRODUCE MORE UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE W HALF OF UPR MI WITH MIN SFC TEMPS FALLING WELL BLO
ZERO...WL MAINTAIN GOING WIND CHILL ADVY EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT
MEET THE MINIMUM 10 MPH CRITERIA AT MANY LOCATIONS.
TUE...SFC ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT INTO FAR NW IL BY
00Z WED...RESULTING IN A SLOW BACKING/WEAKENING OF THE LLVL WINDS.
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE ACYC FLOW...THE LES
OVER THE W SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE BANDS SHIFT MAINLY INTO THE
KEWEENAW BY LATER IN THE DAY. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...LLVL CNVGC
INTO THE ERN CWA IS ALSO FCST TO WEAKEN. IN CONCERT WITH TREND
TOWARD MORE DISORGANIZED BAND STRUCTURE WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS AND
A FCST LOWERING OF THE INVRN BASE UNDER THE SUSTAINED QVECTOR
DVGC... LES INTENSITY IN THE ADVY AREA OVER THE E SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE AFTN. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABV ZERO OVER
THE INTERIOR W...BUT DIMINISHING WIND WL MODERATE WIND CHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A BROAD
TROUGH ENVELOPS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTINENT INCLUDING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND LESSER CHCS FOR SNOW FOR
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS INDICATE LAND
BREEZES OFF ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH MESOLOW AND ASSOC
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFFSHORE OF ERN COUNTIES AND OUT OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS OF COURSE WOULD RESULT IN A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR ERN COUNTIES. AT SAME
TIME...MODELS ALSO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM DESCENDING THROUGH
MANITOBA/ONTARIO TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED WHICH IN TURN WILL ENHANCE MID-LAKE CONVERGNCE...LAKE-INDUCED
TROUGH AND ASSOC MESOLOW FEATURES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEP LAYER
MODERATE Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD DUSTING OF LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF CLIPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP WIND CHILLS GENERALLY GREATER THAN
-20F OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE NIGHT.
WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MESOLOWS AND MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE BANDS ONSHORE
INTO UPPER MI BRINGING THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH WIND SHIFT...EXPECT MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE OVER MAINLY OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MOVE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENT TO MESOLOWS AND
MID LAKE CONVERGENCE LES BANDS RESIDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY. NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW ALSO SHOW STRONG PRES RISES IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FCST SNDGS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS 35-40 KTS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEL QPF FIELDS SUGGEST HEAVIEST BANDS WILL
FOCUS INTO MQT COUNTY WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FCST FOR HEAVY LES AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MQT COUNTY WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. FOR NOW ONLY INCLUDED MQT COUNTY IN
WATCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HEADLINES WILL ALSO BE NEEDED
FOR BARAGA AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AS WINDS BACK NW WITH APPROACH OF SFC RDG FM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE LES BANDS WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING LIGHT LES EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FAR ERN
SHORELINE...WINDS BACKING WSW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LES OUT OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING A VERY BRIEF BREAK FROM SNOW THU EVENING
BEFORE YET ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS IN A CHC FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING LATE FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
INCREASED MOISTENING...DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV ALONG WITH CONVERGENT
W-WNW FLOW FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING TO BRING AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LES INTO THE NW CWA. WITH BLYR WINDS FCST
OVER 30 KTS ACROSS KEWEENAW AND LK SUPERIOR...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT BLSN/DRSN AND POOR VSBY AS WELL.
MOST MODELS SHOW POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING NEAR TIP OF JAMES BAY THIS
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT HEART OF COLDEST AIR (8H TEMPS
-35F OR LOWER) WILL STAY NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT SHORTWAVE
LOBES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE COULD BRING WAVE OF 8H TEMPS OF
-28 TO -30F ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS AROUND 10F TO LOWER TEENS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH ABV ZERO
AT SOME WRN INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT NW FLOW LES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
A COLD N WIND SLOWLY BACKING NW TO W OVER THE NEXT 24HRS WILL BRING
LAKE EFFECT -SHSN TO UPPER MI THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A FEED OF
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOW INVERSION BASE ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HI
PRES OVER SCNTRL CANADA WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
SHSN. ON THE OTHER HAND...COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL
SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. THUS...CONDITIONS MAY
VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IS OFTEN THE CASE DURING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
KCMX WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY -SHSN...AND CONDITIONS THERE WILL
LIKELY VARY BTWN MVFR AND IFR FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE BRIEF LIFR AS WELL. WITH BACKING WINDS AND ICE
COVER OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...KIWD SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR WITH FLURRIES OR -SHSN AT TIMES TONIGHT. BACKING WINDS SHOULD
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TUE. KSAW MAY REMAIN MOSTLY VFR FOR THIS FCST
PERIOD WITH MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
WITH NNW WINDS UP TO 20-30 KTS ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO CONTINUE INTO TUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT DIMINISHING WINDS ON
TUE WILL CAUSE THIS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. NEXT
GALE EVENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ANOTHER
GALE IS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 11 AM EST
/10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-
250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ALF OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR TROF OVER EASTERN NAMERICA AND A RDG
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DISTURBANCE/
SFC LO PRES MOVING INTO WRN QUEBEC IS IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING N-E
THRU UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GENERALLY LGT SN
MAINLY NEAR LK SUP. MUCH COLDER AIR WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -27C
AT YPL IS FOLLOWING THIS FNT...AND SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
FALLING OVER THE NRN TIER. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AIR...
THE COMBINATION OF DNVA AHEAD OF AN APRCHG SHRTWV RDG/LOWERING INVRN
BASE TOWARD 3K FT PER SHORT TERM FCST SDNGS AND ADVECTION OF DRIER
LLVL AIR OSBVD IN ONTARIO IS TENDING TO HAMPER THE INTENSITY OF LES
FOLLOWING THE FROPA. IN FACT...VSBL STLT IMAGERY IS SHOWING QUITE A
BIT OF CLRG OVER THE N HALF OF LK SUP. THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV NEAR
LK WINNIPEG THAT IS DIVING ESEWD TOWARD THE CWA. STLT IMAGERY DOES
SHOW SOME ENHANCED CLD IN THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...BUT THE LLVL DRYING IN THE NNE FLOW TO THE S OF SFC
ARCTIC HI PRES CENTERED OVER NRN MANITOBA IS LIMITING SN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWV OVER ALBERTA IS MOVING
SEWD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE LES/SN AMOUNTS/GOING
HEADLINES AND IMPACT OF CLIPPER SHRTWVS THAT WL BE DIVING SEWD THRU
THE UPR LKS.
TNGT...SFC COLD FNT NOW DROPPING SWD THRU UPR MI WL CLEAR MENOMINEE
BY 00Z MON. INFLUX OF COLD AIR IN THE LLVL NLY FLOW BEHIND THIS
FROPA THAT IS FCST TO DROP H85 TEMPS TO ARND -23C OR -24C OVER THE
NRN TIER BY 12Z MON WL GENERATE LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS.
ALTHOUGH LLVL DRYING/LO INVRN BASE WL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN IN THE SHORT TERM...ARRIVAL OF DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF UPSTREAM CLIPPER SHRTWVS IS
FCST TO SLOWLY RAISE FCST INVRN BASE AND BRING ABOUT SOME DEEPER
MOISTENING. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCRS IN LES INTENSITY
ESPECIALLY E OF MQT...WHERE LONGER FETCH OVER ICE FREE WATER AND
SHARPER LLVL CNVGC OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES ON WRN FLANK
OF LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF ONTARIO WL TEND TO PLAY A POSITIVE ROLE
DESPITE SOME SLOWLY SHIFTING LLVL WINDS ACCOMPANYING PASSAGE OF UPR
DISTURBANCE. GOING LES ADVY FOR THE ERN CWA SEEMS APPROPIATE. AWAY
FM MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH LK SUP...DYNAMIC SUPPORT FM CLIPPER
SHRTWV WL PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT LGT SHSN WITH LLVL
DRYING OFFSETTING THE ACCOMPANYING UPWARD MOTION. NLY FLOW OFF LK
SUP/ABUNDANT CLD COVER WL TEND TO MODERATE MIN TEMPS DESPITE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR.
MON...CLIPPER NOW OVER ALBERTA/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST/UPR LKS
IN THE MRNG. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN HIER INVRN BASE AND
PERSISTENT LES NEAR LK SUP AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO ARND -26C IN SLOWLY
SHIFTING LLVL NLY FLOW. BUT THE DIMINISHING DGZ DEPTH ACCOMPANYING
INFLUX OF EVEN COLDER AIR AS WELL AS SLOWLY SHIFTING LLVL WINDS WL
TEND TO LIMIT SN TOTALS. BUT WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LES IN
THE FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MQT. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FREQUENT
SHSN EARLY NEAR IWD CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THIS SECOND CLIPPER...
WENT WITH NO MORE THAN LIKELY POPS OVER THE WRN SN BELTS CONSIDERING
WEAKER LLVL CNVGC/MORE ICE COVER. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND
ABUNDANT CLD COVER IN GENERAL N FLOW OFF LK SUP...EXPECT LTL DIURNAL
TEMP RECOVERY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DETAILS ON LES
AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON WED.
STARTING 00Z TUE...THE CWA WILL BE BENEATH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS
WILL START OUT AOB -25C. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NNW AS
THE CWA IS BETWEEN A SFC TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND A 1040MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER ND. A TROUGH WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE SSE INTO ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...PROMOTING CYCLONIC FLOW THERE...WHILE FLOW OVER FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC. LES WILL BE ONGOING
IN ALL NNW WIND SNOWBELT...BUT THE MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE
DOWNWIND OF ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY LES /INCLUDING INVERSION
TOPS AROUND 7KFT/. NOT MUCH CHANGES THROUGH THE REST OF MON
NIGHT...EXCEPT THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE TO FAR SW MN...MAKING
FOR EVEN LESS FAVORABLE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS. THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCAL EFFECTS IS WITH ICE COVERAGE OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THAT MAY CLOSE DOWN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TO LES. THERE WAS
GOOD ICE COVERAGE OVER THE W WHEN LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH STRONG SW WINDS LAST NIGHT TURNING MORE NWLY
TODAY...NOT SURE ABOUT THE COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THAT ICE INTO
THE FUTURE. THE NIGHT SHIFT LAST NIGHT PUT UP AN ADVISORY FOR
ALGER...NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD
THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THEN FOR TUE...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SE AS THE SFC TROUGH
OVER THE ERN LAKE DIMINISHES. FLOW BECOME VERY ANTICYCLONIC OVER ALL
BUT EXTREME ERN LAKE SUPERIOR /WHERE IT WILL BE NEUTRAL/ BY 00Z WED.
850MB TEMPS ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND -20C UNDER THE SFC RIDGE TUE.
SHOULD SEE LES DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL. EVEN WITH CONDITIONS BEING UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LES
OVER CENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW...WHICH WOULD MAINLY BE AREAS N OFF THE
PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NWRN CWA. EXTENDED PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
HEADLINES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LAKE TROUGHING SHOULD STICK AROUND
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...HELPING TO CONTINUE LES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. TUE LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE CWA STARTING TUE
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO N OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN ONTARIO BY 12Z
WED...BRINGING A BROAD...WEAK SFC LOW TO THE AREA. THIS LOW LOOKS TO
BE ENHANCED BY LAKE AGGREGATE AS A MESO LOW MAY FORM OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT TO WHAT MAGNITUDE AND EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN. THE
12Z/19 NAM...00Z/19 GLOBAL GEM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 00Z/19 ECMWF
FAVOR THE MESO LOW TO MOVE OVER E CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...MOVING
INTO UPPER MI SOMEWHERE E OF MARQUETTE WED EVENING. THIS PATH IS
TYPICALLY WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...BUT THE EXACTLY WHERE THAT LOW
MOVES WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE STRONGEST SNOW AND WIND WILL FOCUS.
THIS COULD BE QUITE AN INTERESTING EVENT OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
AS THE MESO LOW WILL VERY QUICKLY SHIFT SE AS IT MOVES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A 1050MB HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING A 1030MB SFC RIDGE INTO
THE CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE GUSTY
WINDS AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISE...BUT
THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE
POSSIBLE MESO LOW...WHERE BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NNE FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE MESO LOW AND FROM JUST AHEAD TO JUST BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...NCENTRAL UPPER MI WOULD BE FAVORED FOR UPSLOPE AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT THAT MAY MAKE FOR VERY TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS SOMEWHERE
IN THE LATE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING TIME FRAME.
AGAIN...THESE ARE PRETTY LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO EXACTLY PREDICT EVENT A DAY OUT...BUT THE CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NCENTRAL UPPER MI IS PRETTY GOOD
GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN. OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA AFFECTED BY
THE MESO LOW...THE REST OF NWRN UPPER MI LOOKS FAVORED FOR A GOOD
BURST OF SNOW AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES.
EXPECT LES WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM NLY TO NWLY WITH
-25C 850MB TEMPS...BUT WITH THE SFC RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ON
THU...THE LES SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN THU MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BY LATER THU...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AHEAD OF
ANOTHER CLIPPER THAT WILL STAY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA. THE MORE
FAVORABLE CURVATURE TO THE FLOW WILL FAVORED THE KEWEENAW FOR LES AS
STRONG WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WSW THROUGH 06Z FRI...VEERING OUT OF
THE WNW BEHIND THE CLIPPER BY 18Z FRI. 850MB TEMPS LATE THU THROUGH
FRI WILL BE IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE...WHICH WILL PUT MORE OF THE
THERMAL PROFILE IN THE DGZ...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TO ONLY BE
4-5KFT.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE
NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES THIS FAR
OUT. ONE TREND THAT CAN BE NOTED IS THAT THE COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS
BELOW -30C/ SHOWN IN PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL RUNS MOVING OVER THE CWA
IS NOW BEING SHOWS AS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
TO THE NE. THIS COULD CHANGE...BUT AT LEAST IT IS A NOTABLE TREND
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
A COLD NNE FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR OFF LK SUP WL BRING LK EFFECT -SHSN TO
THE TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. BUT A FEED OF LLVL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD HI PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN. SO MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE. THE
BEST CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT IWD ON MON MRNG...WHEN A
PASSING DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF A FVRBL NNE FLOW AND DEEPER
MSTR MAY ENHANCE THE SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
EXPECT N TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT AND MON E OF ARCTIC
HI PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES...THE RESULTING WAVE ACTION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY IF NOT LONGER AS AREA IS ENTRENCHED IN COLD
AIR. NEXT GALE EVENTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAME AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ243-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1152 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW VERY FAMILIAR UPR
AIR PATTERN WITH DEEP TROF OVER CENTRAL/ERN NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF
HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W. ALTHOUGH SOME LO CLDS/LGT SHSN OR
FLURRIES WERE ARND INTO EARLY AFTN WITH LLVL MSTR TRAPPED UNDER LO
INVRN SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS...ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR
DEPICTED ON THE INL RAOB HAS TENDED TO DIMINISH THIS LO CLD.
OTRW...THERE IS RELATIVELY QUIET WX OVER UPR MI TDAY GIVEN SHRTWV
RDG/MID LVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE RAOBS DOMINATING THE UPR LKS TO THE
N OF POTENT CLIPPER SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU THE MIDWEST. NEXT
DISTURBANCE IN THE NEVER ENDING PARADE OF CLIPPER SHRTWVS IS NOW
DIGGING SSEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. FAIRLY
SHARP PRES FALLS AND EXTENSIVE CLD COVER ARE EVIDENT IN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE IMPACT ON POPS/WINDS/
BLSN OF SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO NW ONTARIO AND TEMPS TRENDS TNGT.
TNGT...SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO OVER NW ONTARIO THIS EVNG ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUN...WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FNT REACHING THE KEWEENAW TOWARD 12Z. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LO WL
DEEPEN FM ABOUT 995MB THIS EVNG TO 985MB ON SUN MRNG AS THE SHRTWV
DIGS INTO THE MEAN UPR TROF. ALTHOUGH BULK OF THE ACCOMPANYING
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO SWING THRU ONTARIO AND N
OF THE CWA IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME...SOME OF THIS FORCING DOES
IMPACT UPR MI. MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING...WHICH IS
BACKED UP BY COLDER CLD TOPS AND UPSTREAM OBS IN NRN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN SHOWING FAIRLY WDSPRD LGT SN EVEN ON THE ACYC SIDE OF
SHRTWV TRACK. GIVEN THESE OBS...SUSPECT THE HIER QPF UP TO 0.20 INCH
OVER THE W THRU 12Z SUN SHOWN BY THE 12Z NAM/REGIONAL GEM MAY BE ON
THE RIGHT TRACK DESPITE MARGINAL H85 TEMPS FOR LES. STRENGTHENING
UPSLOPE W-SW FLOW WOULD ALSO TEND TO ENHANCE PCPN TOTALS IN THIS
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SN AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
MORE EXPOSED KEWEENAW PENINSULA ACCENTUATED BY H925 WINDS UP TO
35-40 KTS WL LIKELY CAUSE BLSN/SHARPLY REDUCED VSBY. PLAN TO REISSUE
SPS FOR THIS AREA. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF WSW FLOW WL TEND TO LIMIT QPF
OVER THE CNTRL ZNS. AS FOR TEMPS...READINGS MAY FALL OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY UNDER CLR-PCLDY SKIES...BUT COMBINATION OF INCRSG
CLDS/WINDS BY LATE EVNG SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO REBOUND...ESPECIALLY
IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
SUN...AS SHRTWV/SFC LO MOVE INTO QUEBEC...ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL
CROSS UPR MI...CLRG MENOMINEE ARND 18Z. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER SHSN/BLSN NEAR LK SUP E OF MQT ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA WITH
WSHFT TO THE NW AND GUSTY WINDS/H925 WINDS STILL NEAR 30 KTS. OPTED
TO INCLUDE THIS AREA IN SPS ISSUED FOR THE NW CWA TNGT. ALTHOUGH
FCST NNW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
ARND -20C OVER THE NRN TIER BY 00Z MON WL BE FVRBL FOR LES IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS...DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
SHRTWV PASSAGE THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN INVRN ARND 3K FT WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE LES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W DOWNWIND OF
MORE ICE BUILDUP OVER WRN LK SUP. EXPECT LESS BLSN IN THE AFTN GIVEN
TREND FOR DIMINISHING WINDS WITH CLOSER APRCH OF ARCTIC HI PRES.
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV IS FCST TO MOVE INTO NRN MN LATER IN
THE DAY WITH SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IMPACTING UPR
MI...FCST SDNGS HINT THERE WL BE TOO MUCH DRYING IN THE WAKE OF
STRONGER QUEBEC CLIPPER TO ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE THAN BKN CLDS AWAY FM
THE LES AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014
A SERIES OF CLIPPERS AND ARCTIC AIR WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
PATTERN AS DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA GENERALLY REMAINS IN
PLACE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
JAMES BAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...SENDING A SERIES OF TROUGHS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CONTINUED ADVECTION
OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE N TO NNW
SNOW BELTS IS EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE AS LAKE EQUILIBRIUM
VALUES SURPASS 9KFT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE AND EVEN SOME MEDIUM-RES GUIDANCE IS ALSO STARTING TO
INDICATE A LAKE-INDUCED SFC TROUGH/EASTERLY LAND BREEZE CONV ZONE
NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS. THE LAKE-ICE COVER IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER FAR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND WHITEFISH BAY IS
COMPLETELY FROZEN OVER PER TODAYS SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE LAND BREEZE CONV ZONE TO SET UP FARTHER WEST TODAY...AND
WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR BEHAVIOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH
QUITE COLD AIR FLOWING OFF ONTARIO. LITTLE SHOULD CHANGE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS PERSISTENT NNW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS THE ARCTIC
AIR TENDS TO MAKE SLR VALUES LOWER. HOWEVER...FROM EXPERIENCE SO FAR
THIS SEASON...THE EXTENDED FETCH FOR THE EASTERN CWA MAY ALLOW FOR
MORE MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR...RESULTING IN A DEEPER FAVORABLE
SNOW GROWTH LAYER. HAVE THUS INCREASED RATIOS A BIT ACROSS THE EAST
WHILE LOWERED THEM ELSEWHERE. ALSO...POROUS ICE COVER DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LIMIT LES TO SOME
DEGREE...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF ISLE ROYALE. OVERALL...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREME SNOWFALL UNLESS A CONVERGENT BAND REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN MUNISING AND
GRAND MARAIS...FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. LOW-END ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH GENERALLY 3 TO
6 INCHES...THOUGH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL BACK WINDS ON TUESDAY AND
PUSH LES ACTIVITY OFF SHORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF H8 TEMPS AROUND -25C WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING RATHER COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
MONTH. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN MUCH LIGHTER EXCEPT ALONG
THE WARMER LAKE SHORES. STILL...WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL...A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WITH CHILLS DOWN TO -30F.
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER POTENT CLIPPER WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST RIGHT OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPPER PV
ANOMALY. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE
TRENDED WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...INCREASING N TO
NE GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN A LAGGING 1020 MB LAKE-INDUCED TROUGH AND
IMPINGING 1044 MB HIGH WILL BRING A POSSIBLY INTENSE BOUT OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW TO NORTH-CENTRAL UPPER MI. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
CONSIDERABLY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS
HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THURSDAY AFTER
ANOTHER SHOT OF -25C H8 TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT DEVOTE
MUCH TIME TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY GIVEN MODEL DISAGREEMENT
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WEIGHTED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER POTENT TROUGH AND
ACTIVE FEW DAYS OF WX WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH PERSISTENT LES FOR WNW SNOW BELTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL SEND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT S INTO THE UPPER LAKES OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...W TO SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT. COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLSN
WHIPPED UP BY THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO VIS VARYING BTWN IFR AND
MVFR AT KIWD AND LIKELY A PREVAILING LIFR VIS AT THE MORE EXPOSED
KCMX LOCATION. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED WSW FLOW WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN VFR WX AT KSAW EVEN AFTER -SN BEGINS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA THIS MORNING SHOULD
LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW/BLSN...BUT IFR VIS IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU THE MORNING AT KCMX BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN
THE AFTN. WSHFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE NNW DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE MVFR THIS AFTN/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WSW
GALE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER LAKES S OF DEEPENING LO PRES
CROSSING ONTARIO. THE GALES WILL VEER TO THE NW ON SUN MORNING
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE WINDS WILL TEND TO
DIMINISH TO 25-30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING WINDS...ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER ABOUT
THE E HALF...SO STARTED THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR THIS
AREA AT 18Z SUN. GOING GALE HEADLINE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS BACK AND WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF A SFC RIDGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A POTENT SYSTEM
TRACKING SE OVER UPPER MI WEDNESDAY MAY BRING N TO NE GALES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE
WILL DIMINISH AND BACK WINDS TO THE SW ON THURSDAY. THEN...SW GALES
TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE VEERING TO THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245-263>265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ243-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2014
WEATHER HAS BEEN QUIETING DOWN QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS
STRONG CLIPPER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER HAS
HELPED CLEAR SKIES OUT...SAVE FOR A LINGERING ZONE OF FGEN AROUND H7
THAT HAS KEPT AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW FLURRIES GOING FROM THE
TWIN CITIES BACK TOWARD EAU...THOUGH EVEN THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY
FADE AWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TOWARD THE SW AS A MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM NOSE
WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING BACK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...290-295K SFCS OFF THE NAM SHOWING ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE FAR NE CWA TO
GENERATE SOME -SN AS THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVES IN. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS...SO
INTRODUCED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THAT...THOUGH ONLY ONE OR TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY IF ANYTHING DOES FALL. THIS WAA
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY ALREADY ABOVE 30 OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE MN CWA INTO THE LOW/MID 20S BY THE
START OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THE WARM START MEANS THE MILD DAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. FOLLOWED MORE THE GEM/ECMWF FOR HIGHS SUNDAY
WITH MOST OF THE AREA GETTING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. IF YOU WOULD
LIKE TO AVOID THOUGHTS OF NEEDING A VACATION TO A WARMER CLIMATE...I
SUGGEST YOU STOP READING NOW...AS THESE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL NOT BE A
LASTING TREND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2014
THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO CENTRAL MN AND WI. STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO ABOUT 3KFT
IN STRONG CAA REGIME AND AN ISOTHERMAL MOIST TEMPERATURE PROFILE
WITHIN THE DGZ BETWEEN 3KFT TO 10KFT SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL DRIER AIR WORKS IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOOSTED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE...BUT
THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH CHANCE/LOW PRECIP EVENT WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS REMAINING GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF RECEIVING UP TO AN INCH WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN
WHERE A VORTICITY MAX SLIDES SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT ENOUGH
TO GET A BIT MORE ROBUST SNOWFALL.
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO WESTERN MN MONDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND
FRESH SNOWFALL WILL EASILY ALLOW FOR A STOUT INVERSION TO SET UP
WHICH SHOULD ALSO DECOUPLE THE WIND. IF THE WIND FULLY
DECOUPLES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 20S
BELOW ACROSS MN /EXCEPT FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO/ AND TEENS BELOW
ACROSS WI. SOME SPOTS IN CENTRAL MN MAY DROP TO 30 BELOW AGAIN.
FORECASTING TEMPERATURES IN SUCH A SITUATION IS INHERENTLY
DIFFICULT AS LOCATIONS CAN VARY GREATLY WITH ENHANCED LOCAL
INFLUENCES. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND IT
IS IMPOSSIBLE TO CONVEY THESE HIGHLY VARIED LOCAL INFLUENCES WITH
MUCH PRECISION IN THE GRIDS. UNLIKE THE LAST COLD OUTBREAK...THE
COLDER MOS NUMBERS MAY NOT BE AS FAR OFF FROM REALITY IN THE
DECOUPLED ENVIRONMENT. TOOK A COMPROMISE OF THE MOS NUMBERS AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS NUMBERS FOR TEMPS HOPING SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCE WILL SUFFICE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WITH IT WILL COME A NOSE OF WARMER AIR IN OVERNIGHT
AND A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER POLAR HIGH
WILL BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
BE A NEARLY IDENTICAL SET UP TO MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOW TEMP GRID
IS QUITE SIMILAR AS WELL.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MUCH MILDER SOLUTION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS RUNS. IT SHOWS THE TROUGH BEING CONFINED TO NEW ENGLAND AND
AN EXPANSIVE ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS.
PREFER THE MORE STABLE ECMWF SHOWING A CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF
POLAR FRONTS THROUGH DAY 10. NOT SEEING MUCH TO INDICATE THE
CURRENT PATTERN WILL CHANGE AND GIVEN HOW LONG IT HAS PERSISTED
THIS WINTER...IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT MORE CONVINCING BEFORE A
CHANGE IN DIRECTION IS NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
...PRIMARILY AFFECTING KSTC AND POSSIBLY KRNH/KEAU.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN MVFR CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN MN WILL SINK INTO
CENTRAL MN/WI. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z MONDAY AS THE
LOWER CLOUDS BUILD IN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15Z-18Z SUNDAY.
KMSP...
SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS COULD SKIRT THE NORTHERN EDGES OF KMSP
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE HIGHER CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 00Z MON...WITH LIGHT SNOW APPEARING POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z MON.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z SUNDAY.
SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS THRU PD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHANCE MVFR/SN THRU MORNING. WINDS N 10KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CIGS/-SN TUE NIGHT. WINDS W-SW 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10G20KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
254 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Overall pattern remains unchanged with a
strong upper ridge over the west coast and dry northwest flow
aloft. Models move a weak short wave embedded within the northwest
flow aloft through the area late this evening. Surface winds will
shift to the north for a few hours. The RUC and the European
models develop light qpf near the Little Belts as a result of this
weak upslope flow. HRRR analysis also develops qpf in this area
for a few hours late this evening. Have gone with low pops to
support this possibility. The surface gradient is not as tight on
Monday allowing for lighter winds. Monday and Tuesday will
continue dry with a northerly flow aloft. Temperatures will remain
above seasonal averages.
Tuesday night through Sunday...The main change in the extended
period was to increase the chances for rain/snow Wednesday into
Wednesday night...as both the EC/GFS continue to show an upper
level disturbance moving southward through the region. There looks
to be a bit more moisture with this disturbance...thus pops have
been increased...especially in the mountains around Kings Hill.
Snow accumulations still look to be on the low side...with most
lower elevation locations only seeing around 1 inch of
snowfall...and about 2 to 3 inches in the mountains. After this
disturbance moves through little to no precipitation is expected
from Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures will cool a bit
Wednesday as the disturbance moves through the region...with high
temperatures likely in the morning and then falling in the
afternoon. It will be cold Wednesday night as skies clear out a
bit...and with the possible fresh snow cover...temperatures will
fall rather quickly early Thursday morning. Otherwise...expect
afternoon temperatures to generally be about 5 to 10 degrees above
normal starting as early as Thursday afternoon and then continuing
into next weekend. Brusda
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1815Z.
VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the TAF period. Mid
level clouds will spread south across the area through the
day...with clearing expected overnight. Breezy conditions can be
expected through the afternoon hours across North Central and
Central Montana. Suk
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 26 46 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 20 44 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 23 43 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 20 39 19 42 / 0 0 0 0
WEY 7 32 8 33 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 22 41 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 22 35 20 40 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 23 39 25 44 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1159 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
.UPDATE...
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. NUDGED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD WITH BETTER MIXING AND TWEAKED DEWPOINTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RAP IS SHOWING SOME BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL COMPARED TO
THE NAM/GFS. TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 50S AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WARM TO RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING
SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY DRY AND THIS ALONG WITH LACK OF SNOWCOVER
SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPERATURES. DO HAVE SOME INCREASING CIRRUS
TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. RECORDS FOR TODAY ARE 60
AT OMAHA/65 AT LINCOLN AND 66 AT NORFOLK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING
CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUD CIGS MONDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR AND PUSH OF COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA. WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY 10 TO 15KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO BELOW 10KTS
TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN INCREASING TO 15 TO 20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 15Z MONDAY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ALL FACTORS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A VERY WARM MID WINTER DAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE FROM SATURDAY HAS
BUILT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
NEBRASKA/IOWA HAS TURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN TO
HELP WITH THE MIXING POTENTIAL. WE CURRENTLY FEEL THE MODELS ARE
STILL STRUGGLING TO MIX SUFFICIENTLY GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS AND
WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS A CAT OR TWO MOST AREAS TODAY. WE ARE
STILL LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF ANY RECORDS...BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE
THE 60 DEGREE MARK MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE OMAHA
METRO AND POINTS TO THE WEST. LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER AND EAST
WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S TODAY.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ALBERTA.
THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND ALLOW FOR A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO PUSH SWWD INTO THE FA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOST MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE GEM AND EC/ INDICATE A SECONDARY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ALONG THIS TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ENHANCING THE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. EVEN IF THE WEAKER NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS PROVE BETTER
THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN FA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUING SWWD
MONDAY EVENING. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CAT FOR
LATE MON AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND THEN EXPANDED THOSE SOUTHWEST
DURING MONDAY EVENING. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH...BUT SOME
-SN APPEARS LIKELY. SEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY AND WE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN FA WHERE MIXING
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ALONG THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.
A BRIEF WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE THE NEXT
POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. THIS FRONT DOESN`T APPEAR
TO HAVE THE MOISTURE THAT THE MONDAY FRONT WILL HAVE...BUT THE AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT APPEARS JUST AS COLD IF NOT COLDER FOR WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN FA FALLING BELOW ZERO.
AS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN THIS WINTER THE COLD AIR DOESN`T HANG
AROUND LONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY NEXT FRI AND SAT
ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD INTO THE FA. WITH AN EXPECTED
CONTINUED LACK OF SNOW COVER AT THAT TIME GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO
COOL FOR HIGHS NEXT FRI/SAT AND WE HAVE INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE
40S.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
205 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT AND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN GENERAL EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EST SUNDAY...BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH DEPARTURE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS PREFERRED FOR MOST
OF VERMONT AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER. ACTIVITY WILL THEN INCREASE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS
EVENING WITH APPROACH OF ARCTIC FRONT. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR
TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS BEHAVING MUCH LIKE WE EXPECTED. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
WHICH NOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TOWARD THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...SO FOR TODAY WE`LL BE DEALING WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. LATEST WV IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE BEST PVA SLIDES TO OUR
SOUTH TODAY...BUT 13KM RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY
BREAKING OFF AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING.
WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL PERFORMANCE OF THE RAP OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
IT`S HARD TO IGNORE IT...AND OVERALL IT MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE
UPPER FLOW TRENDING SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT SAID...WE`LL SEE PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY...WITH A BREAK
IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE AWAKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. OVERALL QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EXPECTED...AMOUNTING TO JUST
A DUSTING TO MAYBE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE THE
LAST ABOVE NORMALS WE`LL SEE FOR AWHILE AND GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO A FEW LOW 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOCUS TURNS
TOWARDS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SWING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SAID FEATURE WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NOW POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
OVERALL...FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL WRF`S AND RAP CONTINUING TO
SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW SQUALLS. THINKING ANOTHER
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THAT
LIKELY OCCURRING IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. COME MONDAY
MORNING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOWERS AROUND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
UNDER STRONG CAA ON NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF VT WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BONE CHILLING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT TO
TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW REMAINING
BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW WE`LL LIKELY BE
LOOKING AT SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FOR TUESDAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY FOR AN OVERALL QUIET PERIOD THRU THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST KEEPS SOME CLOUDS AROUND AS
RIDGING BUILDS JUST TO THE WEST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ONLY SLGT CHC FOR
SNOW SHOWERS TO SRN VT. COLD AIR CONTINUES WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -24C AND 925MB TEMPS OF -20C TO -26C. AT THE SFC THIS WILL
MEAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH
MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT BELOW ZERO.
ON FRIDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...PUTTING THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN MODERATING SW FLOW...AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTICEABLE AT THE SFC WITH
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND FRIDAY NGT MIN TEMPS ABOVE
ZERO.
GFS STARTS TO BRING SNOW FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM INTO THE SLV
LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RIDGE SLOW
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SE. OVERALL INCREASING THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NGT INTO SATURDAY...WITH BULK OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WARM TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING SUNDAY MAX TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS TO L20S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING. LGT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...SO OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS FROM 19Z TO AT LEAST
00Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NEAR 03Z IN THE SLV AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...PRODUCING SNOW SQUALLS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
DIFFICULT TO PINPT TIMING OF THIS FRONT...AS MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION. AT THIS PT...EXPECT FRONT AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO AFFECT KMSS BTWN 03Z-08Z...CPV 04Z-
10Z...KMPV 06Z- 11Z AND KRUT AFTER 08Z BUT WEAKENING. KSLK MAY
SEE IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE UPSLOPE SW
FLOW STARTING 21Z...WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE AREA AROUND 05Z-
10Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS SNOW SHOWERS
TAPER OFF. PSBL EXCEPTION AT KSLK IN CONTINUED UPSLOPE.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE S-SW AT 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20-30KTS...PSBLY HIGHER IN THE SLV. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER DAYBREAK AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 21Z MONDAY...TRENDING VFR THOUGH SOME
LINGERING MVFR/IFR SHSN POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC FRONT CLEARS SOUTH OF
THE REGION.
21Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1251 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT AND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN GENERAL EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EST SUNDAY...BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH DEPARTURE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS PREFERRED FOR MOST
OF VERMONT AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER. ACTIVITY WILL THEN INCREASE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS
EVENING WITH APPROACH OF ARCTIC FRONT. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR
TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS BEHAVING MUCH LIKE WE EXPECTED. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
WHICH NOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TOWARD THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...SO FOR TODAY WE`LL BE DEALING WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. LATEST WV IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE BEST PVA SLIDES TO OUR
SOUTH TODAY...BUT 13KM RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY
BREAKING OFF AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING.
WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL PERFORMANCE OF THE RAP OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
IT`S HARD TO IGNORE IT...AND OVERALL IT MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE
UPPER FLOW TRENDING SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT SAID...WE`LL SEE PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY...WITH A BREAK
IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE AWAKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. OVERALL QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EXPECTED...AMOUNTING TO JUST
A DUSTING TO MAYBE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE THE
LAST ABOVE NORMALS WE`LL SEE FOR AWHILE AND GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO A FEW LOW 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOCUS TURNS
TOWARDS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SWING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SAID FEATURE WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NOW POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
OVERALL...FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL WRF`S AND RAP CONTINUING TO
SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW SQUALLS. THINKING ANOTHER
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THAT
LIKELY OCCURRING IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. COME MONDAY
MORNING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOWERS AROUND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
UNDER STRONG CAA ON NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF VT WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BONE CHILLING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT TO
TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW REMAINING
BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW WE`LL LIKELY BE
LOOKING AT SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FOR TUESDAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET...COLD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN WILL
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AND LIKELY BEYOND AS ARCTIC AIR HAS A
DIRECT PATHWAY INTO OUR REGION. THIS IS A VERY STABLE
PATTERN...AND UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY CAN CRASH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...THE CURRENT HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN SHOULD MORE OR LESS HOLD IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
10 DAYS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY THOUGH WITH SOME SLIGHT
AIRMASS MODERATION BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
CONSISTENTLY BELOW ZERO WITH COLDEST NIGHT OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN WIDESPREAD 10 TO 20 BELOW READINGS LIKELY. A WEAK CLIPPER LOW
PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS SFC RIDGE DEPARTS EAST
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SLOWLY...REACHING NEAR MID-WINTER
SEASONAL NORMS FOR ONE BRIEF DAY ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ACCOMPANIED BY YET ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
TO THEN SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
I`LL MAINTAIN SOLID CHC POPS FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHSN.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST WE`LL ONCE AGAIN ENTER
THE DEEP FREEZE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARD
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WISH
I COULD PAINT A MORE INTERESTING AND/OR COMFORTABLE PATTERN...BUT
ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST VERY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING. LGT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...SO OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS FROM 19Z TO AT LEAST
00Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NEAR 03Z IN THE SLV AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...PRODUCING SNOW SQUALLS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
DIFFICULT TO PINPT TIMING OF THIS FRONT...AS MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION. AT THIS PT...EXPECT FRONT AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO AFFECT KMSS BTWN 03Z-08Z...CPV 04Z-
10Z...KMPV 06Z- 11Z AND KRUT AFTER 08Z BUT WEAKENING. KSLK MAY
SEE IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE UPSLOPE SW
FLOW STARTING 21Z...WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE AREA AROUND 05Z-
10Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS SNOW SHOWERS
TAPER OFF. PSBL EXCEPTION AT KSLK IN CONTINUED UPSLOPE.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE S-SW AT 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20-30KTS...PSBLY HIGHER IN THE SLV. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER DAYBREAK AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 21Z MONDAY...TRENDING VFR THOUGH SOME
LINGERING MVFR/IFR SHSN POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC FRONT CLEARS SOUTH OF
THE REGION.
21Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT AND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN GENERAL EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EST SUNDAY...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS REGION THIS
MORNING...AND THIS COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN RATHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 3 INCHES.
AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA TOWARDS MIDDAY...LOOK FOR A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS WHERE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN LIKELIHOOD OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF ARCTIC FRONT. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL...SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S STILL
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR
TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS BEHAVING MUCH LIKE WE EXPECTED. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
WHICH NOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TOWARD THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...SO FOR TODAY WE`LL BE DEALING WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. LATEST WV IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE BEST PVA SLIDES TO OUR
SOUTH TODAY...BUT 13KM RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY
BREAKING OFF AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING.
WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL PERFORMANCE OF THE RAP OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
IT`S HARD TO IGNORE IT...AND OVERALL IT MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE
UPPER FLOW TRENDING SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT SAID...WE`LL SEE PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY...WITH A BREAK
IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE AWAKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. OVERALL QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EXPECTED...AMOUNTING TO JUST
A DUSTING TO MAYBE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE THE
LAST ABOVE NORMALS WE`LL SEE FOR AWHILE AND GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO A FEW LOW 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOCUS TURNS
TOWARDS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SWING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SAID FEATURE WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NOW POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
OVERALL...FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL WRF`S AND RAP CONTINUING TO
SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW SQUALLS. THINKING ANOTHER
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THAT
LIKELY OCCURRING IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. COME MONDAY
MORNING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOWERS AROUND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
UNDER STRONG CAA ON NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF VT WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BONE CHILLING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT TO
TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW REMAINING
BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW WE`LL LIKELY BE
LOOKING AT SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FOR TUESDAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET...COLD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN WILL
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AND LIKELY BEYOND AS ARCTIC AIR HAS A
DIRECT PATHWAY INTO OUR REGION. THIS IS A VERY STABLE
PATTERN...AND UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY CAN CRASH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...THE CURRENT HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN SHOULD MORE OR LESS HOLD IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
10 DAYS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY THOUGH WITH SOME SLIGHT
AIRMASS MODERATION BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
CONSISTENTLY BELOW ZERO WITH COLDEST NIGHT OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN WIDESPREAD 10 TO 20 BELOW READINGS LIKELY. A WEAK CLIPPER LOW
PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS SFC RIDGE DEPARTS EAST
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SLOWLY...REACHING NEAR MID-WINTER
SEASONAL NORMS FOR ONE BRIEF DAY ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ACCOMPANIED BY YET ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
TO THEN SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
I`LL MAINTAIN SOLID CHC POPS FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHSN.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST WE`LL ONCE AGAIN ENTER
THE DEEP FREEZE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARD
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WISH
I COULD PAINT A MORE INTERESTING AND/OR COMFORTABLE PATTERN...BUT
ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST VERY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING. LGT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...SO OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS FROM 19Z TO AT LEAST
00Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NEAR 03Z IN THE SLV AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...PRODUCING SNOW SQUALLS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
DIFFICULT TO PINPT TIMING OF THIS FRONT...AS MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION. AT THIS PT...EXPECT FRONT AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO AFFECT KMSS BTWN 03Z-08Z...CPV 04Z-
10Z...KMPV 06Z- 11Z AND KRUT AFTER 08Z BUT WEAKENING. KSLK MAY
SEE IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE UPSLOPE SW
FLOW STARTING 21Z...WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE AREA AROUND 05Z-
10Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS SNOW SHOWERS
TAPER OFF. PSBL EXCEPTION AT KSLK IN CONTINUED UPSLOPE.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE S-SW AT 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20-30KTS...PSBLY HIGHER IN THE SLV. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER DAYBREAK AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 21Z MONDAY...TRENDING VFR THOUGH SOME
LINGERING MVFR/IFR SHSN POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC FRONT CLEARS SOUTH OF
THE REGION.
21Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1010 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT AND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN GENERAL EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EST SUNDAY...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS REGION THIS
MORNING...AND THIS COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN RATHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 3 INCHES.
AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA TOWARDS MIDDAY...LOOK FOR A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS WHERE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN LIKELIHOOD OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF ARCTIC FRONT. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL...SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S STILL
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR
TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS BEHAVING MUCH LIKE WE EXPECTED. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
WHICH NOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TOWARD THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...SO FOR TODAY WE`LL BE DEALING WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. LATEST WV IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE BEST PVA SLIDES TO OUR
SOUTH TODAY...BUT 13KM RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY
BREAKING OFF AND TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING.
WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL PERFORMANCE OF THE RAP OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
IT`S HARD TO IGNORE IT...AND OVERALL IT MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE
UPPER FLOW TRENDING SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT SAID...WE`LL SEE PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY...WITH A BREAK
IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE AWAKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. OVERALL QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EXPECTED...AMOUNTING TO JUST
A DUSTING TO MAYBE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE THE
LAST ABOVE NORMALS WE`LL SEE FOR AWHILE AND GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO A FEW LOW 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOCUS TURNS
TOWARDS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SWING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SAID FEATURE WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NOW POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
OVERALL...FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL WRF`S AND RAP CONTINUING TO
SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW SQUALLS. THINKING ANOTHER
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THAT
LIKELY OCCURRING IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. COME MONDAY
MORNING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOWERS AROUND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
UNDER STRONG CAA ON NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF VT WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BONE CHILLING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT TO
TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW REMAINING
BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW WE`LL LIKELY BE
LOOKING AT SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FOR TUESDAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET...COLD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN WILL
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AND LIKELY BEYOND AS ARCTIC AIR HAS A
DIRECT PATHWAY INTO OUR REGION. THIS IS A VERY STABLE
PATTERN...AND UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY CAN CRASH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...THE CURRENT HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN SHOULD MORE OR LESS HOLD IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
10 DAYS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY THOUGH WITH SOME SLIGHT
AIRMASS MODERATION BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
CONSISTENTLY BELOW ZERO WITH COLDEST NIGHT OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN WIDESPREAD 10 TO 20 BELOW READINGS LIKELY. A WEAK CLIPPER LOW
PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS SFC RIDGE DEPARTS EAST
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SLOWLY...REACHING NEAR MID-WINTER
SEASONAL NORMS FOR ONE BRIEF DAY ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ACCOMPANIED BY YET ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
TO THEN SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
I`LL MAINTAIN SOLID CHC POPS FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHSN.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST WE`LL ONCE AGAIN ENTER
THE DEEP FREEZE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARD
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WISH
I COULD PAINT A MORE INTERESTING AND/OR COMFORTABLE PATTERN...BUT
ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST VERY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VRB CONDS OF VFR/MVFR/OCCNL IFR EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SCT LIGHT SNOWS/FLURRIES AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH 18Z...THEN MORE DISCRETE BANDS/AREAS OF SHSN AND POSSIBLE
SQUALLS AFTER 00Z WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT BANDED HEAVIER SHSN/SQUALLS LIKELY
DURING A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD IN WHICH BRIEF LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR
IN THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME ON MONDAY AND FOR ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME...KEPT MORE GENERIC SHSN WORDING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OCCURS LATER TODAY.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY...INCREASING INTO THE
10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND TRENDING QUITE GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESP AT KBTV/KSLK/KMSS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A WIND SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY ABATING
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...TRENDING VFR THOUGH SOME LINGERING
MVFR/IFR SHSN POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC FRONT CLEARS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT AND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN GENERAL EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
BEHAVING MUCH LIKE WE EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW
DOWN THE APPROACH OF AN ARCTIC FRONT WHICH NOW LOOKS TO AFFECT
THE NORTH COUNTRY TOWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SO FOR TODAY
WE`LL BE DEALING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. LATEST WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA
THAT THE BEST PVA SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...BUT 13KM RAP
CONTINUES TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND TRACKING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL
PERFORMANCE OF THE RAP OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE
IT...AND OVERALL IT MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE UPPER FLOW TRENDING
SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT SAID...WE`LL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY...WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
AND WE AWAKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT. OVERALL QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EXPECTED...AMOUNTING TO JUST A DUSTING TO
MAYBE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE
NORMALS WE`LL SEE FOR AWHILE AND GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO A FEW
LOW 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOCUS TURNS
TOWARDS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SWING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SAID FEATURE WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NOW POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
OVERALL...FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL WRF`S AND RAP CONTINUING TO
SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW SQUALLS. THINKING ANOTHER
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THAT
LIKELY OCCURRING IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. COME MONDAY
MORNING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOWERS AROUND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
UNDER STRONG CAA ON NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF VT WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BONE CHILLING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT TO
TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW REMAINING
BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW WE`LL LIKELY BE
LOOKING AT SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FOR TUESDAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET...COLD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN WILL
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AND LIKELY BEYOND AS ARCTIC AIR HAS A
DIRECT PATHWAY INTO OUR REGION. THIS IS A VERY STABLE
PATTERN...AND UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY CAN CRASH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...THE CURRENT HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN SHOULD MORE OR LESS HOLD IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
10 DAYS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY THOUGH WITH SOME SLIGHT
AIRMASS MODERATION BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
CONSISTENTLY BELOW ZERO WITH COLDEST NIGHT OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN WIDESPREAD 10 TO 20 BELOW READINGS LIKELY. A WEAK CLIPPER LOW
PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS SFC RIDGE DEPARTS EAST
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SLOWLY...REACHING NEAR MID-WINTER
SEASONAL NORMS FOR ONE BRIEF DAY ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ACCOMPANIED BY YET ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
TO THEN SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
I`LL MAINTAIN SOLID CHC POPS FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHSN.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST WE`LL ONCE AGAIN ENTER
THE DEEP FREEZE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARD
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WISH
I COULD PAINT A MORE INTERESTING AND/OR COMFORTABLE PATTERN...BUT
ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST VERY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VRB CONDS OF VFR/MVFR/OCCNL IFR EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SCT LIGHT SNOWS/FLURRIES AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH 18Z...THEN MORE DISCRETE BANDS/AREAS OF SHSN AND POSSIBLE
SQUALLS AFTER 00Z WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT BANDED HEAVIER SHSN/SQUALLS LIKELY
DURING A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD IN WHICH BRIEF LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR
IN THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME ON MONDAY AND FOR ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME...KEPT MORE GENERIC SHSN WORDING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS POINT UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OCCURS LATER TODAY.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY...INCREASING INTO THE
10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND TRENDING QUITE GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESP AT KBTV/KSLK/KMSS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A WIND SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY ABATING
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...TRENDING VFR THOUGH SOME LINGERING
MVFR/IFR SHSN POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC FRONT CLEARS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT AND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN GENERAL EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
BEHAVING MUCH LIKE WE EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW
DOWN THE APPROACH OF AN ARCTIC FRONT WHICH NOW LOOKS TO AFFECT
THE NORTH COUNTRY TOWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SO FOR TODAY
WE`LL BE DEALING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. LATEST WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA
THAT THE BEST PVA SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...BUT 13KM RAP
CONTINUES TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND TRACKING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL
PERFORMANCE OF THE RAP OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE
IT...AND OVERALL IT MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE UPPER FLOW TRENDING
SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT SAID...WE`LL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY...WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
AND WE AWAKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT. OVERALL QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EXPECTED...AMOUNTING TO JUST A DUSTING TO
MAYBE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE
NORMALS WE`LL SEE FOR AWHILE AND GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO A FEW
LOW 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOCUS TURNS
TOWARDS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SWING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF SAID FEATURE WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NOW POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
OVERALL...FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL WRF`S AND RAP CONTINUING TO
SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW SQUALLS. THINKING ANOTHER
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THAT
LIKELY OCCURRING IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. COME MONDAY
MORNING FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOWERS AROUND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
UNDER STRONG CAA ON NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF VT WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BONE CHILLING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT TO
TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW REMAINING
BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW WE`LL LIKELY BE
LOOKING AT SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF FOR TUESDAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET...COLD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN WILL
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AND LIKELY BEYOND AS ARCTIC AIR HAS A
DIRECT PATHWAY INTO OUR REGION. THIS IS A VERY STABLE
PATTERN...AND UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY CAN CRASH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...THE CURRENT HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN SHOULD MORE OR LESS HOLD IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
10 DAYS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY THOUGH WITH SOME SLIGHT
AIRMASS MODERATION BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
CONSISTENTLY BELOW ZERO WITH COLDEST NIGHT OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN WIDESPREAD 10 TO 20 BELOW READINGS LIKELY. A WEAK CLIPPER LOW
PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS SFC RIDGE DEPARTS EAST
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SLOWLY...REACHING NEAR MID-WINTER
SEASONAL NORMS FOR ONE BRIEF DAY ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ACCOMPANIED BY YET ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
TO THEN SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
I`LL MAINTAIN SOLID CHC POPS FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHSN.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST WE`LL ONCE AGAIN ENTER
THE DEEP FREEZE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARD
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WISH
I COULD PAINT A MORE INTERESTING AND/OR COMFORTABLE PATTERN...BUT
ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST VERY COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VRB CONDS OF VFR/MVFR/OCCNL IFR EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SCT LIGHT SNOWS/FLURRIES AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH 18Z...THEN MORE DISCRETE BANDS/AREAS OF SHSN AND POSSIBLE
SQUALLS 18-06Z WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. BEST
SHOT OF IFR THROUGH 18Z TO OCCUR AT KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY KMSS.
WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT AND BANDED HEAVIER SHSN/SQUALLS...IFR
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS WILL
GENERALLY OCCUR IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME ON MONDAY AND FOR ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME...KEPT MORE GENERIC SHSN WORDING IN TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS POINT UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OCCURS
LATER TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...EVEN NEARLY CALM AT SELECTED TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z. THEREAFTER SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AFTER
12Z AND TRENDS QUITE GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...ESP AT KBTV/KSLK/KMSS.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/IFR IN SHSN AS ARCTIC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BEST SHSN COVERAGE 18-06Z.
12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY JANUARY 21.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALL SITES. GUSTS
OVER 30KTS MAY OCCUR AT CSM/HBR/OKC/OUN THIS AFTN. WIND DIMINISH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST SITES BY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014/
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST DEWPOINTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON... AND EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO THESE LOWER
DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES FORECAST. 12Z OUN AND MOST REGIONAL SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOVE THE 850 MB
LEVEL. THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW MIXING BEYOND
THE INVERSION. THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED ANOTHER 5
TO 10 DEGREES CLOSER TO THE RAP FORECAST. ..SPEG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS EFFECTIVE THEN FOR THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
THE COMING WEEK WILL SEE 3 FRONTAL PASSAGES - EARLY MONDAY,
WEDNESDAY, THEN SATURDAY. WHILE COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW
EACH, NO REALLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLER DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE THESE FRONTS
AND MILD AIR MASSES SOUTH FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY WARM-UPS. NO
MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 36 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 68 34 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 37 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 71 29 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 66 32 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 66 40 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>040-042-
044-045.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1033 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST DEWPOINTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON... AND EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO THESE LOWER
DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES FORECAST. 12Z OUN AND MOST REGIONAL SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOVE THE 850 MB
LEVEL. THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW MIXING BEYOND
THE INVERSION. THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED ANOTHER 5
TO 10 DEGREES CLOSER TO THE RAP FORECAST. ..SPEG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS EFFECTIVE THEN FOR THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
THE COMING WEEK WILL SEE 3 FRONTAL PASSAGES - EARLY MONDAY,
WEDNESDAY, THEN SATURDAY. WHILE COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW
EACH, NO REALLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLER DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE THESE FRONTS
AND MILD AIR MASSES SOUTH FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY WARM-UPS. NO
MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 36 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 68 34 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 37 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 71 29 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 66 32 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 66 40 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>040-042-
044-045.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
800 PM PST MON JAN 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM IN. 21/00Z GFS IN THROUGH 78HR.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE MEDFORD CWA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REFORMING IN THE
ROGUE AND UMPQUA VALLEYS...AND A LAYER OF MARINE STRATUS
APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST. TUESDAY WILL LOOK A LOT LIKE TODAY
DID...EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST WHERE THE MARINE
STRATUS MOVES ONSHORE.
A LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND IT
WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE SOON...BUT A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF IT WILL BEAT IT DOWN A BIT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE OVER WASHINGTON STATE TUESDAY EVENING. IT WILL PUSH A
FRONT ONSHORE WITH IT...BUT IT WILL BE VERY WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH.
THE NORTH COAST MIGHT SEE SOME RAIN...BUT ANY AMOUNTS THAT DO FALL
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE SCOURING OUT OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WITH INCREASED
WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM LOOKS TOO WEAK AT THIS TIME TO
REALLY CLEAN US OUT.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL ZIP THROUGH EASTERN OREGON WEDNESDAY AS IT
MOVES DOWN THE OTHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE...THEN THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO PLACE. EXPECT THURSDAY WEATHER TO BE A LOT
LIKE IT WAS OVER THE PAST WEEKEND WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL REX PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
UNDERCUTTING LOW UNDER THE HIGH IN THE REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
WEST COAST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THESE SOLUTIONS ARE THE
STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
PATTERN BREAKING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SYSTEM FINALLY
BRINGING PRECIP AND MIXING TO THE STAGNANT AIR MONDAY. SVEN
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/00Z TAF CYCLE.
A SURGE OF FOG AND STRATUS IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 10 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE CURRY COUNTY COAST.
THE HRRR 3KM MODEL HAS THE BEST READ ON THIS AND BRINGS IT IN TO
NORTH BEND BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. IT IS NOT VERIFYING NEARLY AS WELL
OVER THE LAND AS THE WATER SO, SINCE THE OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SUPPORT A BROKEN DECK OR FOG, DECIDED TO ENTER A SCATTERED IFR
LEVEL DECK FOR 09Z THROUGH 15Z, KEEPING THE AIRFIELD VFR FOR NOW,
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE FATE OF THE STRATUS. OTHERWISE,
A LITTLE MORE CLEARING ACROSS INLAND AREAS TODAY WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHTLY LATER 02Z-06Z START TO LIFR DENSE FOG IN THE ROGUE AND
UMPQUA VALLEYS INCLUDING MEDFORD AND ROSEBURG, WHILE GRANTS PASS
IS AGAIN UNLIKELY TO CLEAR. EXPECT CLEARING TO COMMENCE ABOUT AN
HOUR FASTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK SYSTEM BRUSHING OVER THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION, WEAKENING IT SLIGHTLY. BTL
&&
.MARINE...ANOTHER ROUND OF LONG PERIOD, MODERATE WEST SWELL IS
DEVELOPING NOW AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RECENTER
INLAND OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RETURN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. BTL
&&
.CLIMATE...FROM THE EVENING OF JANUARY 20TH...
THE 3 PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE LAST
WEEK, INDICATE A BREAK DOWN IN THE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST AROUND DAY 10, JANUARY 28TH. MODELS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CONSISTENT IN TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, AND THERE IS GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE IN THIS TREND. A STRONG
AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION IN AND AROUND INDONESIA HAS BEEN
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY REFOCUSING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THIS FEATURE IS
REFLECTED IN FORECAST MJO INDICES. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A DIP IN
THE JET STREAM COMING OFF OF THE COAST OF ASIA ARE EXPECTED TO SEND
FORTH ENOUGH ENHANCED JET STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO WEAKEN
AND BUMP THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS DO INDICATE A BREAKDOWN IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE,
THEY DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON RELATED DETAILS- PRIMARILY HOW FAST
THIS BREAKDOWN OCCURS AND HOW FAST WE GET WET. THE CFS INDICATES THE
WET PART WON`T BEGIN UNTIL THE WEEK THAT BEGINS FEBRUARY 2ND,
WHEREAS THE FASTER OPERATIONAL ECMWF MODEL INDICATES A NOTABLE STORM
ARRIVING ON THE 28TH OF JANUARY. BTL
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ021-023.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORZ023-024-026.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
$$
15/15/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
853 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
THIS EVENING. STRONGER PRESSURE RISES NOTED LAGGING OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE FRONT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS. SPED FRONT UP SLIGHTLY FROM AFTERNOON
PACKAGE...IN LINE WITH LATEST NAM12 AND RUC GUIDANCE. SHOULD REACH
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA AROUND 05Z AND TO THE COAST AROND 07Z-08Z.
A STRONG 45-55 KT NNE 925MB WIND FIELD WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY 12Z. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING
THAN NEARSHORE AND LAND AREAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD
SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE THEREFORE
HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH NOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE MORNING (ROUGHLY AROUND 15Z-18Z)
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS WHERE
LAPSE RATES DO INCREASE TO ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER MIXING.
MAY SEE EASTERN AREAS OF COASTAL COUNTIES FLIRT OR MEET WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO
GET A BETTER LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE HOISTING WIND ADVISORY.
RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD FOR THE MOMENT...NO CHANGES MADE
THERE. STRONGER AXIS OF THE 925MB LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW MOVES EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND...ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXING...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS ASIDE FROM BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF FROPA AT KVCT. DRY COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS S TX
TONIGHT TO BRING STRONG NRLY WINDS TO THE REGION. SEABREEZE HAS
CREPT PASSED KCRP LATE AFTN WITH BREEZY SE WINDS OCCURRING IN ITS
WAKE...BUT SE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT SSW WIND OCCRNG MOST OF EVENING. KCT/KALI TO HAVE LIGHT
SW/W WINDS THIS EVENING WITH KLRD LIGHT AND VRB WITH PERHAPS MORE
OF A LIGHT NW COMPONENT. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY POOL AT KVCT BEFORE
FROPA TO ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS. FROPA XPCTD TO
BE THRU KLRD/KVCT/KALI AOB 6Z AND KCRP AOB 7Z. STRONG GUSTY SFC
WINDS TO DVLP AFTER FROPA AND CONTINUE THRU MID/LATE MRNG TUES.
VERY STRONG LLVL WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SFC /FCST TO BE 55+ KTS
AT 925MB AT TIMES/ REQUIRES MENTION OF NON CONVECTIVE LLWS FOR
KCRP/KVCT/KALI FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES MRNG DESPITE STRONG SFC
WINDS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT ALL
TERMINALS FROM LATE MRNG THRU AFTN. SOME PASSING CI THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE GENERALLY SKC THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 49 64 37 66 53 / 10 10 0 10 10
VICTORIA 44 62 32 65 48 / 10 10 0 10 20
LAREDO 48 67 40 70 51 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALICE 47 65 35 68 50 / 10 0 0 10 10
ROCKPORT 49 63 39 64 54 / 10 10 0 10 20
COTULLA 43 65 34 68 48 / 0 0 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 48 65 35 68 51 / 10 10 0 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 50 62 42 65 57 / 10 10 0 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2014
.AVIATION...
THE KCDS ASOS HAS BEEN REPORTING A CLOUD LAYER THIS EVENING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE METEOROLOGICALLY. ONLY THE RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTION IS
SHOWING MOISTURE NEAR THIS LEVEL...THOUGH MAINLY JUST TO THE EAST
IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A SLOPED SHALLOW FRONTOGENETICALLY
FORCED REGION. THE DIFFERENCE CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE NOT
CLEARLY DEPICTED ANY CLOUD FEATURE IN THE KCDS AREA...THOUGH THERE
APPEAR TO BE VERY SUBTLE CONTRAST DIFFERENCES SUGGESTING PERHAPS
SMALL ISOLATED CLOUD FEATURES ARE POSSIBLE. AND A CALL TO THE AREA
DID NOT REVEAL ANY NOTABLE CLOUDS. STILL...BECAUSE OF THE
PERSISTENT REPORTING IN ASOS WE HAVE ADDED A SCATTERED 3000 FOOT
CLOUD LAYER AT KCDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR AND A HALF...FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THE REPORT IS CORRECT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF BOTH THE KCDS AND KLBB TAF
FORECASTS WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THAT SHOULD INITIATE BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS APPEAR JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT
DUST VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT KLBB...THOUGH AS LOW AS 6 STATUTE
MILES SEEMS REMOTE AT THE PRESENT TIME. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUING IN VERY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...FOLLOWED BY SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS SUNDAY MORNING AND THE ONSET OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST
BREEZES AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION MAINLY AT KLBB...WE WILL
TAKE A LOOK AGAIN FOLLOWING RELEASE OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2014/
SHORT TERM...
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA BEHIND A
WIND SHIFT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. NO COOLING WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RUNNING
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AT THIS SAME TIME. THE BREEZY
AND WARM WINDS...COUPLED WITH DRY CONDITIONS...WERE ALSO ACTING TO
ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER. THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS DEEPER MIXING ENDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY SKIRT THE FAR NORTHEASTERLY ZONES...BUT
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FOR
MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ZONES AND A FEW 30S POSSIBLE OUT EAST.
SUNDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...SPURRED
ON BY DEVELOPING GUSTY DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE DRY
AIR MASS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ENVELOP THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL
PEAK ABOVE TODAY/S LEVELS AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST NWP SHOWS A 850 MB LOW LEVEL
JET OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH
MIXING IS NOT PROGGED TO BE VERY DEEP...WE SHOULD STILL TAP THIS
JET...SUPPORTING PLENTY OF GUSTINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE
IN THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 MPH A GOOD BET THERE. WOULD NOT EVEN BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS IN THIS AREA THREATEN LOW-END ADVISORY
LEVELS /31-39 MPH SUSTAINED/. ELSEWHERE...FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND
20-25 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS GUSTY WINDS COULD EVEN LOFT A BIT
OF BLOWING DUST...AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE PATCHY BLOWING DUST
MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
DID ALSO DECIDE TO INCLUDE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST.
ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT...TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARM...DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER INTO THE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL CATEGORY THOUGH. SEE THE BELOW FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES THIS AFTN AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD A STAGNANT
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. ONLY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
STATES WILL BRING SUBTLE DIFFERENCES TO THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEK. SPECIFICALLY...WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGES ABOUT EVERY TWO TO
THREE DAYS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS JUST EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS
MOST DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH A
STRONGER TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO CREST THE WEST COAST UPPER
RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH VARIOUS RUNS SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH AND POSITIONING...BUT NONE ATTM PROGGING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CHANGE FOR THE FCST AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH HAVE COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND RH VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO ELEVATE
THE FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT VALID UNTIL 00Z FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...ENDING THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER FOR THE
DAY.
EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY...AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20-30 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND HUMIDITIES FALLING
WELL INTO THE TEENS. THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE MORE MARGINAL
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL. HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
BE EXTREME BY WEST TEXAS STANDARDS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIP TO 10-15
PERCENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
SUNDAY EVENING AS WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES
RISE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 22 68 27 56 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 23 68 26 57 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 21 68 26 59 22 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 23 68 27 61 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 24 68 28 62 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 25 68 30 63 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 24 68 28 63 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 29 72 30 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 28 71 29 62 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 25 73 31 65 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
846 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014
.UPDATE...
THE HRRR KEEPS THE MAIN LAKE SNOW BAND JUST SOUTH OF KENOSHA.
RADAR SHOWS THE MAIN LAKE SNOW BAND IS PUSHING SOUTH SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE ILLINOIS SHORE AREA BUT MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF KENOSHA
COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAKER BAND HAS CAUSED SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
ACCUMULATIONS IN FAR SOUTHERN MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND PORTIONS OF
KENOSHA COUNTY.
WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE.
ELSEWHERE THE LIGHT SNOW FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.
STRONG 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH MINUS 22 CELSIUS BY
MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECT A STEADY DROP IN
TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY AS THE LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES/ENDS. NO
CHANGES IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE AS A LAKE BAND
BRUSHES THE LAKESHORE AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR
AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES/ENDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY NOON TUESDAY.
BRISK AND VERY COLD NORTH WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014/
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THREE MAIN ISSUES TO ZERO IN ON. FIRST IS THE ENDING OF THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWS. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR THE NE EXTENT OF SNOW SWATH.
WILL BASE FORECAST ON RADAR ANIMATION BRINGING A STEADIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS SW 1/2 OF CWA. SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
EXPECTED TO LOSE INFLUENCE BEYOND MID EVENING OR SO. UPSTREAM VSBYS
IN THE MAIN BAND 1-2SM SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. NEXT FOCUS
IS ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A WINDOW OF
BORDERLINE ONSHORE FLOW EVOLVING VCNTY MID LAKE EAST OF KMTW. DELTA T
RISES AS HIGH AS 20-22 WITH THE ARCTIC INVASION WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
RISING TO NEAR 7K FEET. HOWEVER FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO NOTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION. 4KM
WRF SHOWS THE BAND STAYING JUST EAST OF THE SHORE WITH THE THE OTHER
MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF BRUSHING THE FAR SE CORNER.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING IN THE FAR SE LATER IN THE NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL. LAST CONCERN BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST IS
THE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO DROP AS LOW AS -19
TO -21C WITH 25 KNOTS. WITH WIND CHILLS PROGGD TO REACH -20 IN AT
LEAST THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTIES...WILL EXPAND WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. COORD WITH KLOT ON THIS.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AT THE OUTSET. PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGD TO
STILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT THOUGH GRADUALLY EASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO WRN WI. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. COLD THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS -17 TO -19C.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY...AND BEING
ABSORBED BY...A STRONGER WAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY
EVENING DRY THEN BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS INTO ALL BUT THE FAR EAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH MAINLY ISENTROPIC FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD
WAVE...AND WENT WITH CONSENSUS BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY AS MAIN SHORT
WAVE PASSES THROUGH. MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL IN THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS ALL MODELS BUT THE NAM CURRENTLY LIMITING SNOW AFTER
18Z TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES....WHICH IS WHY THE CONSENSUS BLEND
SHOWS NO BETTER THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD...SO
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE MORNING AND DROP THEM TO SLIGHTS IN
THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING FOR LOWS AROUND 12 MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERN TIP
OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER AREA...THEN TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. APPARENT TEMPERATURES APPROACH WIND CHILL
CRITERIA AROUND 06Z THEN RISE WITH THE TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER NOON THEN FALLING TEMPS AS SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
ARCTIC AIR STREAMS BACK IN ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AS BROAD HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
925 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING
BELOW ZERO EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKESHORE...AND CLOSE TO 10 BELOW IN THE
FAR WEST. EXPECT TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA EVERYWHERE
BUT THE FAR EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE STIFF WINDS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ONLY
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER CLOSED 500 MB LOW DOWN TOWARD JAMES BAY
FRIDAY WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO MODIFY 925MB-850
MB TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY....THOUGH BELOW ZERO LOWS AND WEST
WINDS BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THURSDAY NIGHT.
NON-DIURNAL TRENDS TO TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF TROUGH
DROPPING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 24 HOUR HIGHS REACHED LATE
IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING FRIDAY...AND BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY.
CHANCE OF SNOW AS COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
MONDAY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS...ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL KEEP THE LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO THIS
EVENING. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WILL BE
WATCHING FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND BRUSHING AREAS FROM KMKE
SOUTHWARD. GRADUAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL RH LATER TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE...WITH NORTH WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL GO AHEAD AND START THE SMALL CRAFT WITH THE MID
AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. IN ADDITION EXPECTING A PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND INFLUX
OF ARCTIC AIR. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH SURFACE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL EASE
AND TURN A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-
047-051-052-056>060-062>072.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
927 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY OVER THE FORECAST REGION
THIS EVENING...AND SHOULDN`T SEE ANY PASSING BY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. SO NICE NIGHT TO GET IN SOME STAR GAZING. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALSO DECOUPLED FROM THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT... SO SFC WINDS HAVE EASED UP...ESPLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE WINDS IN PARTS OF LOGAN AND
PHILLIPS COUNTIES GUSTED 40-50 MPH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
THE PLAINS WILL ASSUME THEIR TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS. WHEREAS MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ON THE FRONT RANGE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE ON
EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN LARIMER COUNTY AND 30-40 MPH
GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER COUNTY TOWARDS MORNING. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TIGHT CROSS MOUNTAIN PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND THE WARMING AT THE BASE OF
THE FOOTHILLS WILL ENHANCE THIS GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE
1ST AND 2ND PERIODS. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE BUMPED UP LATE NIGHT
WIND SPEEDS UP IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS AT DENVER AREA AIRPORT TERMINALS GENERALLY
UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
6-12KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...WINDS STILL GUSTY ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER...THOUGH
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING. EARLIER A GUST TO 55 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT HOLYOKE AT 155 PM. THERE WAS ALSO SOME BLOWING DUST
IN THE AREA. FURTHER WEST...WINDS MUCH WEAKER. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GRADIENT WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z WITH
WINDS DECREASING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BEHIND EXITING UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST RAP SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW
INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KTS AT MOUNTAIN TOP. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
OVERHEAD WILL HELP INCREASE DOWNWARD MOTION AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH A POSSIBILITY. CLEARING SKIES
AND LESS WIND WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20S...EXCEPT TEENS LOW LYING
AREAS AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO COLORADO.
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP GUSTY
WINDS GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG FOOTHILLS. THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AND FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS. GRADIENT MUCH WEAKER THAT TODAY...SO GUSTS WON`T BE AS
STRONG. WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON WED IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK UPPER LVL TROUGH. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NERN
CO BY WED AFTN WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN
YESTERDAY. THUS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER NERN CO. FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING WEST OF THE AREA AS ONLY SOME WK MID
LVL QG ASCENT IS SHOWN. IN ADDITION AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW
LVL UPSLOPE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. CURRENT CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN CO. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE MUCH
COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE PLAINS.
BY THU AFTN MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN CO WITH NO LOW
LVL UPSLOPE AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS EAST AND SE OF THE
AREA. THUS SNOW CHANCES SHOULD END BY MIDDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI RATHER DRY NNW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SO
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND
WITH READINGS IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO.
FOR THE WEEKEND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NWLY WITH NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NEAR THE
WY...NE BORDER. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL
ACROSS NERN CO BASED ON LATEST DATA.
AVIATION...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK SURGE
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO DECREASE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY
02Z. DRAINAGE FLOW TO THEN DEVELOP WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KDEN
AND KAPA AND WESTERLY AT KBJC. SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KBJC OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 8 KTS. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER/D_L
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...BAKER/D_L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
208 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. THE CHANGES WERE MAINLY NEEDED FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PORTION WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG INTO THE AREA. IN THAT SAME AREA THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 513 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF THE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKING IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
NE/KS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE APPARENT BY DRY LAYER ON WV IMAGERY AND
PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SOUTHERN NE/NORTHERN KS...IS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA.
REGARDING CURRENT WIND ADVISORY...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE
CURRENTLY HITTING CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 39-40KT REPORTED. WHILE IT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD YET...UPSTREAM OBS ARE WELL OVER CRITERIA...AND AN
AREA OF BLOWING DUST ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE. WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME WITH
PEAK DAYTIME MIXING THAT I AM COMFORTABLE LETTING THE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AS IS. I DO HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT NEAR RFW
CRITERIA BEING MET...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
HIGHER TD VALUES ADVECTING FROM THE NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SO I
WILL MONITOR SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RH WILL PROBABLY HOLD STEADY OR
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LOCATIONS WHERE
WINDS GO CALM COULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS GOOD WAA ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING LEE TROUGH
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO MILD TEMPS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. RH VALUES RANGING FROM 13-18 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA COULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS ON
NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...AND I AM WONDERING WHETHER WE WILL
REALLY SEE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER...SO I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING
ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2014
WEEKEND WILL BE MILD AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ARCTIC FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
PROMINENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURE...AND WHILE THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
DOES SUFFER SOME WEAKENING DUE TO AN UPPER LOW THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THE RIDGE COMES BACK JUST AS
STRONG BY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST AT UPPER LEVELS
WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN LOWER LEVELS. POSSIBLE ARCTIC FRONT ON
MONDAY...BUT ABNORMALLY LARGE SPREAD LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/STRENGTH.
FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MIXES WITH
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO START WITH CLOUD
COVER POURING IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY..LIMITING SURFACE
HEATING. ANY SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND FROM THE WED-THURS SYSTEM
COULD ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT SO THAT MIGHT NOT BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY AND MILD. TOSS UP AS TO WHICH DAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 10 HIGHS NEAR 60 LOOK PRETTY
GOOD. CLOUD COVER COULD CUT THAT BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT GENERALLY A
MILD PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS
MIN RH VALUES REACH THE LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS BREEZY AT 15
TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
MONDAY..ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SIMILAR BUT NOT AS POTENT AS THE ONE
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. AS WITH THIS PAST SYSTEM THE ECMWF HAS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER WEST WITH COLDER TEMPS...BRINGING THE 850MB 0C
LINE WELL INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. GFS MEANWHILE SHOWS MONDAY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY AND KEEPS THE COLD AIR FARTHER EAST. ECMWF ALSO
PRODUCES SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH
WITH RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES HARD TO PIN DOWN LOCATION AND
PTYPES...BUT COULD SEE IT ENDING UP SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS SYSTEM
WITH A NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW BAND OF
LOW CLOUD COVER NEAR THE UPPER END OF MVFR HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK. THIS IS BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO STAY
TO THE EAST OF KMCK. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO
MAKE THE NEEDED CHANGES. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AT THAT TIME A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FROM LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1041 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. THE CHANGES WERE MAINLY NEEDED FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PORTION WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG INTO THE AREA. IN THAT SAME AREA THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 513 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF THE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKING IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
NE/KS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE APPARENT BY DRY LAYER ON WV IMAGERY AND
PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SOUTHERN NE/NORTHERN KS...IS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA.
REGARDING CURRENT WIND ADVISORY...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE
CURRENTLY HITTING CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 39-40KT REPORTED. WHILE IT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD YET...UPSTREAM OBS ARE WELL OVER CRITERIA...AND AN
AREA OF BLOWING DUST ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE. WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME WITH
PEAK DAYTIME MIXING THAT I AM COMFORTABLE LETTING THE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AS IS. I DO HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT NEAR RFW
CRITERIA BEING MET...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
HIGHER TD VALUES ADVECTING FROM THE NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SO I
WILL MONITOR SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RH WILL PROBABLY HOLD STEADY OR
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LOCATIONS WHERE
WINDS GO CALM COULD BE AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COOL DOWN WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS GOOD WAA ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING LEE TROUGH
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO MILD TEMPS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. RH VALUES RANGING FROM 13-18 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA COULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS ON
NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE...AND I AM WONDERING WHETHER WE WILL
REALLY SEE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER...SO I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING
ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. POPS WILL DECREASE WITH TIME FROM EAST
TO WEST WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH
THE LIFT THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE
BRIEF WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW, GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH. PLAN TO HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MOST AVAILABLE TO FLURRIES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. MOISTURE DRIES SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SO POPS WILL GO BACK TO NIL.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH
MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER
50S SUNDAY COOLING DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MONDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST MON JAN 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW BAND OF
LOW CLOUD COVER NEAR THE UPPER END OF MVFR HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK. THIS IS BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO STAY
TO THE EAST OF KMCK. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO
MAKE THE NEEDED CHANGES. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AT THAT TIME A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FROM LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
250 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS THIS PACKAGE.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING AND THICKENING LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. LEANED
TOWARDS COLDER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS TODAY...WITH OUR
SHALLOW...BUT ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOWFAL AS FAR NORTH AS
THE BOSTON AREA BY 19Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO HEAD
NORTH INTO OUR INITIALLY DRY AIR THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST EAST COAST IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ALL AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE BRINGS
THIS SYSTEM OFF THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE TONIGHT...DEEPENING IT
FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
ABOUT .25 INCHES QPF IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE
HIGH WATER EQUIVALENT RATIONS...LENDING TO SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE
2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...IT STILL APPEARS THAT CLOSE TO 6 INCHES WILL
ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS
SECOND PERIOD EVENT.
FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY...ALLOWING THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THIS BORDERLINE
WARNING EVENT FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COULD EASILY SEE THE COASTLINE REQUIRING ADVISORIES DUE TO THE
FLUFF FACTOR. IT IS A SHORT DISTANCE FROM OUR CURRENT 2-4 INCH
FORECAST TO A 3-6 INCH ADVISORIES.
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...WITH -SN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTLINE.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...LEADING TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN KEEPS THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW
STATIONARY WHICH MEANS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI DRY BUT VERY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED. OVER
THE WEEKEND A CLIPPER WILL SET OFF SCT SNW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY
EXTREME COLD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. USED SUPERBLEND FOR
TEMPS/POPS. EXACT TIMING OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT.
NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING LIKELY CAUSING
IFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS WED NIGHT THRU FRI AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL SAT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTLINE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT GALES WILL CONITNUE OVER THE WATERS
AS THE COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE EAST. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ007>009 AND MEZ012>014.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NHZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1209 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS...WITH NORTHERN AREAS NOW BELOW ZERO. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A LOWERING OF WIND CHILL VALUES.
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TIMING OF A LARGE AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING AROUND 16Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING NORTH AND EAST.
PREV DISC...COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT HAS MADE QUICKER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE TERRAIN TO THE NORTH IS NOT AS
HIGH AND THUS DID NOT BLOCK THE ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR AS MUCH.
THE FRONT HAS NOW MADE IT THROUGH AUGUSTA MAINE AND PLYMOUTH NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH TEMPERATURE DROPS OF 5 TO 7 DEGREES AS IT GOES
THROUGH. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO OCCURRING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS YET... BUT EXPECT A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH TO FALL... WITH ISOLATED TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS
SEEING AN INCH OR TWO.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING AS THE COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA ARE SOLIDLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. EXPECT
READINGS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
TONIGHT... WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH COLD ADVECTION GOING STRONG... WINDS
WILL NOT DIE DOWN MUCH OVERNIGHT... WITH A 10 TO 15 MPH BREEZE
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
WIND WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL TO 30 BELOW OR COLDER IN
THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS WHERE A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH OF THERE WHERE WIND
CHILLS MAY FALL TO 20 BELOW OR COLDER BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR KEEPS A FIRM GRIP ON THE AREA TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY
RISE INTO THE TEENS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE
THE MOST WE CAN MANAGE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE
OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING THAT MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL GET SCRAPED BY THE
FRINGE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL TOTALS AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE QUITE DRY. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR
WILL ALSO MAKE FOR HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. ALTHOUGH TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO 0.25 ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTLINE... WITH HIGH SNOW RATIOS THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO 4 TO 6
INCHES OF POWDERY SNOW. USED A TOOL TO BASE SNOW RATIOS ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO GET THE FINAL SNOWFALL FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE HEAVIEST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE OF MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AS THIS IS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE UP TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW. THERE WERE IMPACT CONSIDERATIONS WHEN ISSUING THIS
WATCH AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 30 MPH... CAUSING THE POWDERY
SNOW TO BLOW AND DRIFT AROUND QUITE A BIT. THIS IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HEADLINES ISSUED FROM THE BOSTON FORECAST OFFICE
FOR NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MASSACHUSETTS. SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH WINDS ALSO STAYING UP AS
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE AREA
EXPECTED TO SEE 20 BELOW WIND CHILLS OR COLDER. WILL LIKELY NEED
TO ISSUE ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
INLAND MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE THIS
ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER CURRENTLY WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED TO AVOID CONFUSION.
SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING... IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE COASTAL LOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY... LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER COLD NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DROPPING BELOW ZERO
TO THE COAST WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS LIKELY OVER AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY A JET STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH... PULLING THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WITH 1000 500 THICKNESS BELOW 500DM,
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK.
FRIDAY THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION AND THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS... WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS
FALLING AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AND REQUIRING THE
COLD AIR TO SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION... THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING... AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THIS SYSTEM STALL INTO LATE SUNDAY BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES. ALREADY
MODELS HAVE A 12HR SPREAD IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING... HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SNOW THIS EVENING... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
TUESDAY EVENING LIKELY CAUSING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM... MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR RKD INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. FOR CEILING/VISIBILITY... EXPECT VFR FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE WEEKEND STORM PERIODS OF IFR ARE
LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER WATERS
AND PENOBSCOT BAY AS WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
COLD ADVECTION. WILL SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY BEFORE GALE CONDITIONS
BEGIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF OF CAPE COD.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING... BUT GALES
ARE MOST LIKELY AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALSO... MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND EXPANDING ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED LONGER AS COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK FOR GALES OVER THE WATERS AS
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT... WITH THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR A FEW
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL... PARTICULARLY ON THE
OUTER AND MORE EASTERN WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A PROBLEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ007>009.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ001-002.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1155 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ALF OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN CUTOFF UPR LO OVER QUEBEC AND RDG ALONG
THE W COAST. AT THE SFC...ARCTIC HI PRES IS CENTERED OVER SCENTRAL
CANADA. N FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -29C
AT PICKLE LAKE AND MOOSONEE IN ONTARIO...ACRS LK SUP IS CAUSING NMRS
WIND PARALLEL BANDS OF LK EFFECT SN THAT ARE AFFECTING DOWNSTREAM
AREAS NEAR THE BIG LAKE DESPITE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI AS WELL AS THE
FEED OF VERY DRY LLVL ARCTIC AIR. 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS SHOWED INVRN
BASE JUST BLO H9 UNDER THIS SUBSIDENCE. THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
HAS CAUSED SKIES TO TURN PCLDY OVER THE SCENTRAL. THERE IS ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV OVER THE DAKOTAS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALF...BUT
THIS DISTURBANCE IS ON A TRACK THAT WL TAKE IT WELL TO THE SW OF UPR
MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LES POPS AND SN AMOUNTS
AS WELL AS WIND CHILLS AND GOING HEADLINES.
TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC UNDER
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALF AND ON THE NRN FRINGES OF DAKOTA CLIPPER
SAILING SEWD TO THE S OF THE CWA. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO FALL TO AS
LO AS ABOUT -25C...SO LES WL CONTINUE IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS. BUT
AS THE SFC HI PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA SINKS TO SW MN BY 12Z TUE...
THE LLVL FLOW OVER UPR MI IS FCST TO BACK SLOWLY FM THE N TOWARD THE
NW WITH TIME...SO THE SN BANDS SHOULD SHIFT ACCORDINGLY. ALTHOUGH
THE LARGER SCALE H925-85 WL BE BACKING...A NUMBER OF THE HIER RES
MODELS STILL SHOW A NEAR SFC ENE LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF ONTARIO
ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING IMPACTING THE ERN CWA AND SHARPENING
LLVL CNVGC IN ALGER/WRN LUCE/ NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. DESPITE THE
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE... FCST SDNGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW INVRN BASES
UP NEAR 7K FT WITH LONGER FETCH OVER MORE OPEN ICE FREE WATER
ENHANCING MIXING. ALTHOUGH THE DGZ IS FCST TO LOWER TO WITHIN 1-2K
FT OF THE SFC...THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR GOING LES ADVY FOR THIS AREA.
SHIFTING WINDS/MORE ICE COVER OVER WRN LK SUP/LOWER INVRN BASE NEAR
3-4K FT/NEAR ABSENCE OF DGZ OVER THE W WITH COLDER...MORE UNMODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS INDICATE NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES WL FALL OVER THE
W. SINCE THE BACKING FLOW WL INTRODUCE MORE UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE W HALF OF UPR MI WITH MIN SFC TEMPS FALLING WELL BLO
ZERO...WL MAINTAIN GOING WIND CHILL ADVY EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT
MEET THE MINIMUM 10 MPH CRITERIA AT MANY LOCATIONS.
TUE...SFC ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT INTO FAR NW IL BY
00Z WED...RESULTING IN A SLOW BACKING/WEAKENING OF THE LLVL WINDS.
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE ACYC FLOW...THE LES
OVER THE W SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE BANDS SHIFT MAINLY INTO THE
KEWEENAW BY LATER IN THE DAY. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...LLVL CNVGC
INTO THE ERN CWA IS ALSO FCST TO WEAKEN. IN CONCERT WITH TREND
TOWARD MORE DISORGANIZED BAND STRUCTURE WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS AND
A FCST LOWERING OF THE INVRN BASE UNDER THE SUSTAINED QVECTOR
DVGC... LES INTENSITY IN THE ADVY AREA OVER THE E SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE AFTN. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABV ZERO OVER
THE INTERIOR W...BUT DIMINISHING WIND WL MODERATE WIND CHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A BROAD
TROUGH ENVELOPS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTINENT INCLUDING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND LESSER CHCS FOR SNOW FOR
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS INDICATE LAND
BREEZES OFF ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH MESOLOW AND ASSOC
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFFSHORE OF ERN COUNTIES AND OUT OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS OF COURSE WOULD RESULT IN A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR ERN COUNTIES. AT SAME
TIME...MODELS ALSO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM DESCENDING THROUGH
MANITOBA/ONTARIO TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED WHICH IN TURN WILL ENHANCE MID-LAKE CONVERGNCE...LAKE-INDUCED
TROUGH AND ASSOC MESOLOW FEATURES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEP LAYER
MODERATE Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD DUSTING OF LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF CLIPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP WIND CHILLS GENERALLY GREATER THAN
-20F OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE NIGHT.
WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MESOLOWS AND MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE BANDS ONSHORE
INTO UPPER MI BRINGING THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH WIND SHIFT...EXPECT MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE OVER MAINLY OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MOVE INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENT TO MESOLOWS AND
MID LAKE CONVERGENCE LES BANDS RESIDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY. NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW ALSO SHOW STRONG PRES RISES IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FCST SNDGS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS 35-40 KTS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEL QPF FIELDS SUGGEST HEAVIEST BANDS WILL
FOCUS INTO MQT COUNTY WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. GIVEN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FCST FOR HEAVY LES AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MQT COUNTY WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. FOR NOW ONLY INCLUDED MQT COUNTY IN
WATCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HEADLINES WILL ALSO BE NEEDED
FOR BARAGA AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AS WINDS BACK NW WITH APPROACH OF SFC RDG FM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE LES BANDS WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING LIGHT LES EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FAR ERN
SHORELINE...WINDS BACKING WSW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LES OUT OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING A VERY BRIEF BREAK FROM SNOW THU EVENING
BEFORE YET ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS IN A CHC FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING LATE FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
INCREASED MOISTENING...DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV ALONG WITH CONVERGENT
W-WNW FLOW FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING TO BRING AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LES INTO THE NW CWA. WITH BLYR WINDS FCST
OVER 30 KTS ACROSS KEWEENAW AND LK SUPERIOR...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT BLSN/DRSN AND POOR VSBY AS WELL.
MOST MODELS SHOW POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING NEAR TIP OF JAMES BAY THIS
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT HEART OF COLDEST AIR (8H TEMPS
-35F OR LOWER) WILL STAY NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT SHORTWAVE
LOBES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE COULD BRING WAVE OF 8H TEMPS OF
-28 TO -30F ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS AROUND 10F TO LOWER TEENS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH ABV ZERO
AT SOME WRN INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT NW FLOW LES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
A COLD N WIND BRINGING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN TO UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY
BACK SW OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...BRINGING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TEMPORARILY. THE COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL
SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. THUS...CONDITIONS MAY
VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IS USUALLY THE CASE DURING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
KCMX WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY -SHSN...AND CONDITIONS THERE WILL
LIKELY VARY BTWN MVFR AND IFR FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE BRIEF LIFR AS WELL. -SHSN AT KCMX WON`T END
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS BACK TO THE SW. KIWD WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH -SHSN AT TIMES REDUCING VIS TO IFR.
BACKING WINDS COMBINED WITH ICE COVER OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.
WHILE THERE MAY BE AN OCNL MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT...KSAW WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VFR WITH MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THRU THE PERIOD.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS EVENING MAY BRING -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
TO KIWD NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014
WITH NNW WINDS UP TO 20-30 KTS ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO CONTINUE INTO TUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT DIMINISHING WINDS ON
TUE WILL CAUSE THIS HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. NEXT
GALE EVENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ANOTHER
GALE IS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-
250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW EVENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY THIS MORNING FIRMLY WITHIN THE 25 TO 40
BELOW RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY DIPPING EVEN COLDER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WIND FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BRINGING WARM ADVECTION SNOW AHEAD OF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE. A SOLID INCH IS EXPECTED WITH UPWARDS OF TWO IN SOME
SPOTS. MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS...ALTHOUGH THE
RAP IS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR AROUND 18 UTC WITH 30
KTS. IF THE STRONGER RAP VERIFIES...GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PROBABILITY OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION BELOW 1/2 MILE IS AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR
A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE
BLOWING SNOW MODEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT TODAY IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE TREES OF NORTHWEST MN TO THE LOWER
TEENS WEST OF THE VALLEY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW TO 850 HPA AND MIXED
LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW...BUT STRONGEST WINDS WON/T MATERIALIZE
UNTIL AFTER 06 UTC TONIGHT...SO WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT VIEW A
COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE A DECISION IS MADE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO
HOIST A NEW WIND CHILL HEADLINE. EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK
INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY ALL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD (20 TO 25
BELOW) WITH CLEAR SKIES AS A 1048 TO 1050 HPA SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS EAST
OF THE HIGH CENTER ALLOWING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 40
BELOW. SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...
BUT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THURSDAY MID-
AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS DEEP
POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND THEN MOVES
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. AS IT DROPS SOUTH LOOK FOR A 500 MB SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY GIVING INCREASED WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. AHEAD
OF IT ON FRIDAY A BRIEF WARM UP WITH WEST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH SAT NIGHT-MON AS TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY ALONG WITH A SNOW BAND MOVING
WEST TO EAST AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...MOVING EAST
THEREAFTER. THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD IN
THE VALLEY AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH FRESH POWDER TO
BLOW AROUND.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-027>030-
038-039-049-052-053.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN REACH THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SATURDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
OUR REGION LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN START BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. THE LATEST 06Z GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS ARE KEYING ON THE MAX SNOWFALL
AXIS ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR. LOCATION REMAINS THE LONGEST IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AREA (HIGHER RATIOS) AS WELL AS THE AXIS OF
INCREASING FGEN FORCING. IF ANYTHING THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
HARDER FRONT END HIT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHTER RATES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT.
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER, BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO RAMP UP.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE MORNING RUSH LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY UNAFFECTED...
THE BAD NEWS IS THE EVENING RUSH WON`T BE SO LUCKY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING, THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE BROAD EAST COAST TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA, IT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING, GENERALLY AFTER OR AT THE
TAIL END OF THE MORNING RUSH, AS MOISTURE/LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE,
THEN SPREAD EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, STRONG 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENIC FORCING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS A SOLID PORTION OF
THE AREA, INCREASING OMEGAS THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED THE
HEAVIEST CORRIDOR OF SNOW NORTHWEST AGAIN, AND HAS INCREASE AMOUNTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE, WE HAVE PUSHED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING NORTHWESTWARD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES. SO EVERYONE IS IN
THE WARNING EXCEPT CARBON/MONROE, PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX, NEW
JERSEY. AS OF NOW, THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL DELMARVA WHERE 8-10 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE BANDING OCCURS. HOWEVER, EITHER SIDE OF THIS
SWATH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH 6-8
INCHES POSSIBLE. CARBON/MONROE, PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX, NEW JERSEY
MAY MISS OUT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AS THE HEAVY BANDS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL THE SNOW MOVES OUT OF THESE AREAS.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. ALONG WITH THE SNOWFALL, BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD GET
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THESE CONDITIONS OCCURRING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS FRONTOGENIC FORCING AND OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE WILL BE MAXED. HOWEVER, AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING AND TOWARD
THE THE MIDNIGHT HOUR, THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING
OVERHEAD, ALLOWING THE FORCING TO MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW SNOWFALL TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE LONGEST TO HOLD ON TO THE SNOWFALL, BUT
EVERYONE SHOULD BE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THE CONCERN THEN TURNS TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. NOT ONLY WILL THERE CONTINUE TO BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, WIND CHILL WILL BECOME QUITE LOW ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -15 FOR MOST PLACES, TO EVEN LOW -20S
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE WE HAVE ALSO
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVERYWHERE. CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES
MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALL THE FUN IS IN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THE
LONGTERM STARTS OFF WITH THE SLOPPY LEFTOVERS FROM THE INTENSIFYING
COASTAL LOW. WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WE KEEP CHANCES ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT ON LAND. OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STIFF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...DOESN`T HAVE TO BE ACTIVELY SNOWING FOR
BLOWING SNOW. THE FRESH SNOWCOVER AND CAA WON`T ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO GET OUT OF TEENS TOMORROW. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY,
THOUGH NOT TOTALLY SURE WE COMPLETELY LOSE THEM, EITHER WAY SINGLE
DIGITS ARE EXPECTED...TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE COLDER MAVMOS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY
THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL ONLY HAVE SO MUCH TIME
TO GATHER SOME OFF THE LAKES, IF THEY ARE NOT ICED OVER BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT WITH MORE OF A WEST FLOW BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE/FREEZING.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES PAST DAY 4 WITH TODAYS SYSTEM BARRELING
DOWN ON US.
THEN WE GO DOWNWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SUB 500DM
1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST AS THE THERMAL TROF MOVES
THROUGH. MIN TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO THE COLDER MEX MOS VALUES AND MAY
NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. RECORD LOWS OTHER THAN GED (6 IN 1987) ARE AROUND
ZERO OR BELOW.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. THIS MODERATION IS BECOMING MORE MUTED. SCATTERED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEN COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY. TIMING ISSUES
WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR MONDAY. FOR NOW WE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE
IN KEEPING IT DRY. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE A DOWNTURN
TO MVFR AND IFR/LIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW IS ON THE WAY,
AND WILL BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING, AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS, IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR
CONDITIONS TO BECOME IFR. WE EXPECT THE SNOW TO BEGIN IN THE 13Z-15Z
TIME PERIOD, AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND INCREASE FROM THERE. WE
EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, HENCE THE 1/2 TO 1/4 SM VSBYS. ALSO, WINDS WILL
BECOME QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY, SO THERE WILL BE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, EVEN AFTER THE SNOWFALL ENDS. THEREFOR WE
HAVE KEPT VSBYS LOWER THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
20-25 KT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEMS ON
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWER CONDITIONS IF
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWER CONDITIONS IF
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS AND STRENGTHENS OFF THE
COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS EXPECTED, WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD
AIR TEMPERATURES, FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROBLEM. WE
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY STARTING AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
WARNING AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY GOES SAME TIME PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP OFF THEREAFTER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROPPING TO SUB-ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS LOOK TO BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING, THE 22ND, LOOK MOSTLY OUT OF
REACH, THEY ARE HISTORICALLY LOW.
IF PHILADELPHIA HAS 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW, IT WILL BE THE THIRD
EVENT OF THIS WINTER THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. THIS HAS NEVER
OCCURRED BEFORE FEBRUARY DATING BACK TO 1884. THERE HAS NEVER BEEN
A FOURTH.
"FLUFF FACTORS": OF THE FIFTY-SIX SIX INCH OR GREATER EVENTS IN
PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1950, ONLY SIX HAVE OCCURRED WITH SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT RATIOS OF GREATER THAN 15:1. HIGHER RATIOS ARE NOT JUST
A FUNCTION OF THE AIR MASS BEING COLDER, ALTHOUGH IT OBVIOUSLY
DOESNT HURT. THE AMOUNT OF TIME SPENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA, THE
AMOUNT OF BOTH IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA AND NEAR THE SURFACE WIND,
HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW ACCUMULATES (SLOW AND STEADY VS MOSTLY IN
FOUR HOURS) ALL ARE AS MUCH FACTORS AS THE TEMPERATURES. THE
JANUARY 2ND-3RD EVENT, THE LOWEST SNOW TO WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS
IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE IN MONROE, CARBON AND SUSSEX COUNTIES NJ
AT ABOUT 10:1 EVEN THOUGH THEY AVERAGE SIX INCHES AND THEY WERE IN
THE TEENS WHEN IT WAS SNOWING. THE REASON WAS THE OMEGA AND SNOW
GROWTH AREA NEVER COINCIDED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ008>010-
012>027.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
902 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR TODAY AND
ISSUED NEW ONES FOR TONIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY BASED ON
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES PLUS SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
COASTAL MAINE ALONG WITH MERRIMACK AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... SPREADING
INTO COASTAL MAINE THIS EVENING.
645AM UPDATE...
***A CLOSE CALL EXPECTED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY***
A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS THIS PACKAGE THROUGH 9 AM.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING AND THICKENING LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. LEANED
TOWARDS COLDER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS TODAY...WITH OUR
SHALLOW...BUT ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOWFALL AS FAR NORTH AS
THE PORTSMOUTH AREAS BY 23Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTH INTO OUR INITIALLY DRY AIR THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST EAST COAST INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAROCLINIC
LEAF DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALL AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE
BRINGS THIS SYSTEM OFF THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE TONIGHT...
DEEPENING IT FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME... MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST ABOUT .25 INCHES QPF IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ME/NH COAST. THERE WILL BE HIGH WATER
EQUIVALENT RATIONS... LENDING TO SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 2 TO
4 INCH RANGE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...IT STILL APPEARS THAT CLOSE TO 6 INCHES WILL
ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS
SECOND PERIOD EVENT. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD CHANGE
THESE TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE ME/NH COASTLINE. A QUICK LOOK AT THE UPCOMING 12Z RUN
AND SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS THIS MORNING.
FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY...ALLOWING THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THIS BORDERLINE
WARNING EVENT FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COULD EASILY SEE THE COASTLINE REQUIRING ADVISORIES DUE TO THE
FLUFF FACTOR. IT IS A SHORT DISTANCE FROM OUR CURRENT 2-4 INCH
FORECAST TO A 3-6 INCH ADVISORIES.
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COASTLINE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...LEADING TO SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN KEEPS THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW
STATIONARY WHICH MEANS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DRY BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. OVER THE WEEKEND A CLIPPER WILL SET OFF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY EXTREME COLD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. USED
SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES/POPS. EXACT TIMING OF FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT. NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING LIKELY CAUSING
IFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTLINE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
AS THE COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE EAST. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ012>014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018-023>028.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003>005-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ008-010.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
648 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
***A CLOSE CALL EXPECTED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY***
A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS THIS PACKAGE THROUGH 9 AM.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING AND THICKENING LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. LEANED
TOWARDS COLDER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS TODAY...WITH OUR
SHALLOW...BUT ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOWFAL AS FAR NORTH AS
THE PORTSMOUTH AREAS BY 23Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTH INTO OUR INITIALLY DRY AIR THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST EAST COAST IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAROCLINIC LEAF
DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALL AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE
BRINGS THIS SYSTEM OFF THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE
TONIGHT...DEEPENING IT FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST. AT
THIS TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST ABOUT ~.25 INCHES QPF IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ME/NH COAST. THERE WILL BE HIGH WATER
EQUIVALENT RATIONS...LENDING TO SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 2 TO
4 INCH RANGE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...IT STILL APPEARS THAT CLOSE TO 6 INCHES WILL
ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS
SECOND PERIOD EVENT. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD CHANGE
THESE TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE ME/NH COASTLINE. A QUICK LOOK AT THE UPCOMING 12Z RUN
AND SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS THIS MORNING.
FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY...ALLOWING THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THIS BORDERLINE
WARNING EVENT FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COULD EASILY SEE THE COASTLINE REQUIRING ADVISORIES DUE TO THE
FLUFF FACTOR. IT IS A SHORT DISTANCE FROM OUR CURRENT 2-4 INCH
FORECAST TO A 3-6 INCH ADVISORIES.
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...WITH -SN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTLINE.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...LEADING TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN KEEPS THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW
STATIONARY WHICH MEANS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI DRY BUT VERY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED. OVER
THE WEEKEND A CLIPPER WILL SET OFF SCT SNW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY
EXTREME COLD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. USED SUPERBLEND FOR
TEMPS/POPS. EXACT TIMING OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT.
NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING LIKELY CAUSING
IFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS WED NIGHT THRU FRI AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL SAT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTLINE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT GALES WILL CONITNUE OVER THE WATERS
AS THE COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE EAST. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
WIND CHILL VALUES IMPROVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY...BUT A FEW NEARBY OBSERVATIONS
STILL REPORTING VALUES FROM 25 TO 30 BELOW. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF IT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY LATER THIS MORNING.
RADAR ECHOES INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL ND WITH ROLLA/RUGBY/CANDO NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS 1.5 MILES. CURRENT POPS/WX LOOK
GOOD WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW EVENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY THIS MORNING FIRMLY WITHIN THE 25 TO 40
BELOW RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY DIPPING EVEN COLDER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WIND FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BRINGING WARM ADVECTION SNOW AHEAD OF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE. A SOLID INCH IS EXPECTED WITH UPWARDS OF TWO IN SOME
SPOTS. MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS...ALTHOUGH THE
RAP IS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR AROUND 18 UTC WITH 30
KTS. IF THE STRONGER RAP VERIFIES...GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PROBABILITY OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION BELOW 1/2 MILE IS AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR
A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE
BLOWING SNOW MODEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT TODAY IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE TREES OF NORTHWEST MN TO THE LOWER
TEENS WEST OF THE VALLEY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW TO 850 HPA AND MIXED
LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW...BUT STRONGEST WINDS WON/T MATERIALIZE
UNTIL AFTER 06 UTC TONIGHT...SO WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT VIEW A
COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE A DECISION IS MADE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO
HOIST A NEW WIND CHILL HEADLINE. EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK
INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY ALL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD (20 TO 25
BELOW) WITH CLEAR SKIES AS A 1048 TO 1050 HPA SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS EAST
OF THE HIGH CENTER ALLOWING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 40
BELOW. SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...
BUT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THURSDAY MID-
AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS DEEP
POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND THEN MOVES
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. AS IT DROPS SOUTH LOOK FOR A 500 MB SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY GIVING INCREASED WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. AHEAD
OF IT ON FRIDAY A BRIEF WARM UP WITH WEST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH SAT NIGHT-MON AS TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MAINLY
MVFR CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH AN OCCASIONAL MIDDAY GUST UP TO 22 KTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. CEILINGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3000 FT AGL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-027>030-
038-039-049-052-053.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1011 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY EAST OF VIRGINIA
BEACH LATE TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX WILL
RESULT IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND 8H TEMP ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRIMARY CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN TO EXPAND THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO COVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND
WED MORNING...WHERE APPARENT TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE -10 TO -15
RANGE AT TIMES. BIG QUESTION DURING THAT PERIOD WILL BE THE DURATION
OF HIGHER WINDS AND FREQUENCY OF WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AT THE SFC
LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT SLIDES OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...EMPHASIS WILL BE PLACED ON THE SNOWFALL RATES OF
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FAR SERN ZONES OVER AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
13Z RUC INDICATES A PERSISTENT/STRENGTHENING BELT OF STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING DEVELOPING ACROSS LANCASTER...YORK AND THE SERN
HALF OF ADAMS COUNTY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
AREA OF STRONG/DEEP UVVEL SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 30-35DBZ
REFLECTIVITY AND VSBYS AOB 1/4SM MILE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING/MOVING EAST AROUND DUSK.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY...SCENT MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...STEADY LIGHT TO MDT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AND ACCUMULATE
AROUND 1/2 INCH PER HOUR...WHILE NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIGHT
/AOB 1/4 INCH PER HOUR/ WITH VSBYS AVERAGING 1-2SM.
LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
BESIDES THE SNOW...COLD IS THE WORD FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPS TODAY WILL GO PRACTICALLY NOWHERE...HOLDING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN TIER...TEENS THROUGHOUT MOST OF CENTRAL
PENN...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SE METRO AREAS.
BY LATE IN THE DAY...SECONDARY COASTAL LOW IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY JUST E OF VIRGINIA BEACH. DURING THIS TIME FRAME STRONG FGEN
FORCING IS INDICATED BY THE 00Z OPER RUNS ACROSS EXTREME SE
PA...WHERE A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MDL CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS IS
INDICATING A GOOD INSTABILITY SIGNATURE AND POTENTIAL OF SLANTWISE
CONVECTION BANDING ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES BTWN 18Z-00Z WITH A LAYER
OF NEGATIVE EPV LOCATED IN THE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE/POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN UNSETTLING
WIDE RANGE IN THE 03Z SREF PLUMES FOR KLNS /WITH LEQ PRECIP RANGING
FROM 0.05 TO 1.25 INCHES/ AS LATE AS THE 03Z AND 09Z RUNS /WHICH IS
IN THE HEART OF OUR WINT STORM WARNING/...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MEAN QPF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FOR BTWN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE TREND HAS BEEN SLOWLY
UP IN THE SREF/S MEAN LEQ OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
WILL CONSIDER INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY /BY ABOUT 1/2 TO
1 INCH/ ACROSS SOME CENTRAL ZONES AS SOME MDTLY ENHANCED/NARROW FGEN
BANDS DRIFT NORTH BRINGING PERIODS OF 3/4SM SNOW. WILL BE WATCHING
THE RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT CLOSELY IN REGARD TO THIS
MODIFICATION.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH SNOW/WATER RATIOS WITH BULK
OF LIFT OCCURRING WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. SNL/S OF SOMEWHERE
BTWN 15 AND 20 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 10 TO 12 INCHES WHERE
HEAVY SNOW BAND FORMS /MOST LIKELY OVR YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES/.
AS THE SNOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS SE PA LATE TODAY...EXPECT IT TO
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...WHERE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON NORTHERLY FLOW.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WEST OF DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL ALSO
CREATE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA LATE TODAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO ARND 25KTS
BY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...AS
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE WINDS AT 8H QUICKLY BACK TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL PULL IN DRY AIR...BUT IT WILL ALSO BE
BITTERLY COLD. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE 5-10KTS IN THE NORTH BUT
STRONGER IN THE SE. RESULTING WIND CHILLS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
DANGER CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...WHERE
APPARENT TEMPS BTWN 15-20 BELOW ZERO APPEAR LIKELY. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SUSTAINED WCHILLS BLW OUR -15F CRITERIA
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...SO HAVE LEFT THEM
OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST HAVE LOWER ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THUS HAVE HOISTED WCHILL
ADVISORIES.
DESPITE A BITTER COLD NW FLOW...A FROZEN LK ERIE COMBINED WITH
LOW INVERSION HGT AND BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ABSENCE OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD CREATE BKN STRATOCU AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MCLEAR SKIES APPEAR LIKELY EAST/DOWNWIND
OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850TEMPS OF ARND -20C SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM ARND 5 ABV ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO JUST THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX
PERSISTING THRU THE MED RANGE FCST...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF
WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBERTA CLIPPERS
ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT CLIPPER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY...BASED ON TIMING OF ALL MED RANGE MDLS. INCREASING MDL
SPREAD MAKES TIMING OF THIRD SHORTWAVE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT
PROBABLY MON/TUE. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF COLD
WX MAY COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC
ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF PENN IN LIGHT SNOW.
PERIODS OF VLIFR ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ACROSS THE KLNS...KMDT AND
KTHV VICINITY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS SFC PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...BCMG SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVR THE SRN
1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. THE SNOW WILL BE OF LOW WATER CONTENT/FLUFFY
GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE ADDED
BLSN AT MDT/LNS WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST AROUND 22/00Z.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVE/AFTER 00Z/22 WITH CONDS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM
PA.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
THUR...MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF -SN.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ024>028-050-052-056-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ033>036-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1017 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...CURRENT FORECASTS STILL ON TRACK. WINDS QUITE GUSTY
ALONG AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...WITH CURRENT GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.
WESTERLY WINDS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. 1500 M
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM GRAND JUNCTION TO DENVER NOW AT 10.59 MB.
LATEST RAP SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW PEAKING
AT 40 KTS AROUND 20Z THEN STEADILY DECREASING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL HELP INCREASE WINDS ACROSS REST OF
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS STILL LOOKING REASONABLE. WESTERLY
WINDS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. WEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 21Z...AS NORTHWEST WINDS MIX TO
THE SURFACE. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KDEN AND KAPA
THROUGH 22Z. WINDS TO THEN TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE AFTER 00Z. VFR
TO PREVAIL WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THROUGH 2PM...THEN DECREASE.
HUMIDITY READINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT TO BETWEEN 14 AND 18%. FIRE
DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS LOGAN...SEDGWICK...PHILLIPS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH DOWNWARD
MOTION FROM SUBSIDENCE AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BRING A WARM AND BREEZY DAY TODAY TO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. WARM ADVECTION AND THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
WINDIEST AREAS WILL BE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE STATE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND NOON OR JUST
AFTER THEN DECREASE.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND SLIGHTLY LESS WINDY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN TO THE 20S OVER THE PLAINS WITH
READINGS CLOSER TO 30 NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE MILDER
THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL SURROUND CHANCE OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COLORADO PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A RELATIVELY EARLY HIGH WITH READINGS
THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE MOVES DOWN THE SPINE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS ADVERTISED TO BRING WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
LIFT ACROSS COLORADO FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
BE WEAK BUT UP TO NEAR 10K FEET. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO...NOT TO MENTION SOME JET DYNAMICS...SHOULD LEAD TO THE
PRODUCTION OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY A FEW MODERATE
BANDS DEPENDING HOW UPPER JET PATTERN EVOLVES. THIS STILL LOOKS
LIKE A GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW EVENT OVERALL WITH 1-3 INCH TYPE
SNOWFALLS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR...AND MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE COMING IN A LITTLE EARLIER
SO ALSO SPED UP THE TIMING A FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE COULD BE RATHER ICY CONSIDERING WARM PAVEMENT TEMPS OF
LATE AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES.
MUCH DRIER WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING
OCCUR. WARMING TREND WILL RESUME FRIDAY WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE ARE STILL NOT IMMUNE FROM WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
NEXT THREAT OF ANY WEATHER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY WHEN
ECMWF ADVERTISES ANOTHER STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. OVERALL LIKED THE ECMWF HANDLING OF THIS POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVE GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOME
SIGNS THIS PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN COULD FINALLY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY THE 1ST WEEK OF FEBRUARY...AND IT WILL NEED TO IF WE
WANT TO KEEP OUR MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK CLOSE TO NORMAL.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DRAINAGE WINDS AT DENVER AREA AIRPORT TERMINALS.
KDEN IS CURRENTLY STRONGER...BUT GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH
MID-MORNING...THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 6-12KTS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON THEN A
RETURN TO DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SURFACING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS TODAY SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH...PEAKING BETWEEN 11AM AND 2PM BEFORE
DECREASING. WITH HUMIDITIES REDUCING TO 14-18%...THE FIRE DANGER
IS ELEVATED...MAINLY FOR LOGAN...SEDGWICK...PHILLIPS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAY HIT CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE HOURS
BUT WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
532 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WHILE
AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REACH THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY AS
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY.
YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB. IN TERMS
OF THE FGEN BANDING, THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE BANDING BETTER THAN
THE HI RES NMM OR ARW. IMPRESSIVE FGEN FORCING THAT MAXIMIZED AT
18Z IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. THE BAND THAT
PRODUCED 2-3 INCH RATES ALONG THE 195 CORRIDOR HAS WEAKENED. THIS
HAS PERMITTED HEAVIER SNOW TO ONCE AGAIN EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD.
MEANWHILE LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAVE
AVOIDED THE HEAVIER SNOW SO FAR.
THE EVOLUTION INTO THIS EVENING IS FOR THE FGEN FORCING INDUCED
SNOW TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH THE DPVA
INDUCED SNOW CLIPPING THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA THE HARDEST. THE
CROSS HAIRS OF OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH ARE MAXIMIZING NOW FROM I95
NORTHWARD (EXCEPT POCONOS) AND EXIT THOSE REGIONS BY 00Z. SO WHILE
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN RANGE (EXCEPT
ALONG I95 WHERE WE ARE NOW TOWARD THE HIGH END OF THE 10-14"
GRAPHIC), ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY 00Z.
WITH THE TROF YET TO PASS UNTIL 12Z, THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD TAKE ITS TIME BEFORE IT ENDS. THIS
IS NOT COINCIDING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW (AS
BANDING IS MAINLY INLAND WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE OCCURRING) SO NO
BLIZZARD RELATED HEADLINES. REGARDLESS CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. PLEASE DO NOT DRIVE IF YOU DO
NOT HAVE TO.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME HIER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE POCONOS MIGHT TOUCH WARNING CRITERIA. COVERAGE
AND CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR AN UPGRADE. MIN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
STAT GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... A VERY
COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER DAY IN WHICH MAX TEMPS WILL FAIL
TO REACH THE 20 DEGREE MARK THIS JANUARY. ANY SMALL COMFORT WILL
BE THAT THE DAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHOULD BE
DECREASING AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAX TEMPS ARE
BELOW STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF OUR FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS MOSTLY QUIET, BUT COLD THIS
TIME AROUND. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW COVER
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THEN BY THU, A WK ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE
SYS WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION AND CUD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT
OVERALL QPF IS VERY LIGHT AND THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHICH AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP. THE GFS IS MORE
FOCUSED N AND W. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA.
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYS, A VAST AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SLIDE SEWD AND KEEP THINGS DRY THU NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT.
THEN, BY SAT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN SERN CAN WILL MOVE EWD. ITS
ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL MOVE EWD AND CROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E
DURG THE SECOND HALF OF SAT. THIS SYS COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
SNOW, THOUGH AGAIN ALL QPF IS LIGHT.
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEN, ANOTHER WK SYS WILL MOVE ACRS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AGAIN, THE MDLS DIFFER
IN THE EXACT DETAILS, WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A MORE NRN TRACK AND
AFFECTING MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. THE GFS HAS A MORE
SRN TRACK AND IMPACTS MORE OF THE AREA. AGAIN OVERALL QPF IS LIGHT
ATTM, BUT TEMPS ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH
THIS EVENT AS WELL.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PD LOOKS TO BE SAT, WHERE TEMPS SHOULD
RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AND THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS FOLKS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE REST OF THE PD, TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
JUST THINK, MARCH IS ABOUT A MONTH AWAY BY THE END OF THE PD....
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3
MILES WITH PERIODS OF 1/4-1/2 MILE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS.
WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN
THE 25 TO NEAR 30 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING
SNOW TO OCCUR AND WILL DECREASE VISIBILITIES EVEN AFTER THE SNOW
HAS CEASED FALLING. CEILINGS ARE VARIED ACROSS THE REGION BUT ARE
MOSTLY AROUND 500 TO 1200 FEET. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THE SNOW WILL END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WE
SHOULD START TO MARKED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL
RISE BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY BUT WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
STILL IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WITH THE WINDS WHIPPING AROUND
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE SNOW BE BLOWN ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS AND
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE WINDS WILL
START TO SUBSIDE AND LOSE THE GUSTINESS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THU...VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWER CONDITIONS IF SNOW
SHOWERS OCCUR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN LOWER CONDS PSBL AS CDFNT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST BRINGING THE CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25
KT. MDT CONFIDENCE.
SUN...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES ARE UNDERWAY. WE PEAKED WIND GUSTS AT 45 KNOTS. THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR FREEZING SPRAY WILL INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD START DECREASING DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY BE A BIT TOO LONG WITH THE GALE WARNING
ON DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME SUB
ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY HAVE AN SCA FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
PD.
THU-FRI...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE WATERS AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT ON SAT.
SEAS WILL TO BUILD SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ008>010-
012>027.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WHILE
AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN REACH
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY AS ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. YET
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO ANY OF THE HEADLINES.
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB. IN TERMS OF
THE FGEN BANDING, THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE BANDING BETTER THAN THE
HI RES NMM OR ARW. IMPRESSIVE FGEN FORCING THAT MAXIMIZED AT 18Z IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. THE BAND THAT PRODUCED 2-3
INCH RATES ALONG THE 195 CORRIDOR HAS WEAKENED. THIS HAS PERMITTED
HEAVIER SNOW TO ONCE AGAIN EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. MEANWHILE LOCATIONS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAVE AVOIDED THE HEAVIER SNOW SO
FAR AND EVEN SOME RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SUSSEX COUNTY DE.
THE EVOLUTION INTO THIS EVENING IS FOR THE FGEN FORCING INDUCED SNOW
TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH THE DPVA INDUCED SNOW
CLIPPING THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA THE HARDEST. THE CROSS
HAIRS OF OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH ARE MAXIMIZING NOW FROM I95
NORTHWARD (EXCEPT POCONOS) AND EXIT THOSE REGIONS BY 00Z. SO
WHILE THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN RANGE (EXCEPT
ALONG I95 WHERE WE ARE NOW TOWARD THE HIGH END OF THE 10-14"
GRAPHIC), ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY 00Z.
WITH THE TROF YET TO PASS UNTIL 12Z, THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD TAKE ITS TIME BEFORE IT ENDS. THIS IS
NOT COINCIDING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW (AS
BANDING IS MAINLY INLAND WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE OCCURRING) SO NO
BLIZZARD RELATED HEADLINES. REGARDLESS CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE. PLEASE DO NOT DRIVE IF YOU DO
NOT HAVE TO.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME HIER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS IN THE POCONOS MIGHT TOUCH WARNING CRITERIA. COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR AN UPGRADE. MIN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW STAT
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER DAY IN WHICH MAX TEMPS WILL
FAIL TO REACH THE 20 DEGREE MARK THIS JANUARY. ANY SMALL COMFORT
WILL BE THAT THE DAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHOULD BE
DECREASING AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAX TEMPS ARE
BELOW STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF OUR FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS MOSTLY QUIET, BUT COLD THIS
TIME AROUND. WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW COVER
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THEN BY THU, A WK ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE
SYS WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION AND CUD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT
OVERALL QPF IS VERY LIGHT AND THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHICH AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP. THE GFS IS MORE
FOCUSED N AND W. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA.
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYS, A VAST AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
PLAINS WILL SLIDE SEWD AND KEEP THINGS DRY THU NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT.
THEN, BY SAT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN SERN CAN WILL MOVE EWD. ITS
ATTENDANT CDFNT WILL MOVE EWD AND CROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E
DURG THE SECOND HALF OF SAT. THIS SYS COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
SNOW, THOUGH AGAIN ALL QPF IS LIGHT.
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEN, ANOTHER WK SYS WILL MOVE ACRS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AGAIN, THE MDLS DIFFER
IN THE EXACT DETAILS, WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A MORE NRN TRACK AND
AFFECTING MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. THE GFS HAS A MORE
SRN TRACK AND IMPACTS MORE OF THE AREA. AGAIN OVERALL QPF IS LIGHT
ATTM, BUT TEMPS ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH
THIS EVENT AS WELL.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PD LOOKS TO BE SAT, WHERE TEMPS SHOULD RISE
ABOVE FREEZING, AND THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS FOLKS. IT APPEARS THAT
THE REST OF THE PD, TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
JUST THINK, MARCH IS ABOUT A MONTH AWAY BY THE END OF THE PD....
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3
MILES WITH PERIODS OF 1/4-1/2 MILE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS. WINDS
ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO
NEAR 30 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW TO OCCUR
AND WILL DECREASE VISIBILITIES EVEN AFTER THE SNOW HAS CEASED
FALLING. CEILINGS ARE VARIED ACROSS THE REGION BUT ARE MOSTLY AROUND
500 TO 1200 FEET. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THE SNOW WILL END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WE
SHOULD START TO MARKED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL
RISE BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY BUT WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS STILL
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WITH THE WINDS WHIPPING AROUND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE SNOW BE BLOWN ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS AND THIS MAY
CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE WINDS WILL START TO
SUBSIDE AND LOSE THE GUSTINESS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THU...VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWER CONDITIONS IF SNOW
SHOWERS OCCUR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN LOWER CONDS PSBL AS CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST BRINGING THE CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-25 KT.
MDT CONFIDENCE.
SUN...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGE TO MARINE HEADLINES. GALES ARE UNDERWAY. WE PEAKED WIND
GUSTS AT 45 KNOTS. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR FREEZING SPRAY WILL INCREASE
AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD START
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY BE A BIT TOO LONG
WITH THE GALE WARNING ON DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME SUB
ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY HAVE AN SCA FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE PD.
THU-FRI...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE WATERS AND SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT ON SAT. SEAS
WILL TO BUILD SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ008>010-
012>027.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1053 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1053 AM CST
INTENSE MID LAKE CONVERGENCE LES BAND PERSISTING DOWN THE LENGTH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING ONLY SLOWLY MIGRATING EASTWARD AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SINGLE CONVERGENT LES
BAND THE TYPE OF WHICH MADE BUFFALO NY FAMOUS FOR HEAVY SNOW IS MUCH
RARER FOR CHICAGO. HRRR AND LOCAL WORKSTATION WRF SHOWING
CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY RELAXING AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOWS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
UPSTREAM AIRMASS ALSO DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO HELP TO TREND SNOW TO BECOME LESS INTENSE.
BUT NOT BEFORE THE DAMAGE IS DONE... AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNING
FOR LAKE AND ADVISORY FOR PORTER EACH 2 HOURS LONGER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS SLOWER EVOLUTION. EVEN WITH EXTENDING THE HEADLINES BELIEVE
FINAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL ON TARGET GIVEN TRANSITORY NATURE
OF THE NARROW BAND. SOME OSCILLATING EXPECTED LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE OVERALL TREND WILL BE EASTWARD. (OSCILLATING
CURRENTLY DUE TO SECONDARY CONVERGENCE BAND UPSTREAM AHEAD OF
RIDGING/TIGHTENING GRADIENT.) BUT NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH FOR THOSE
UNDERNEATH AS NARROW BUT INTENSE BLINDING SNOW WITH TRAVEL CAMS
AND GROUND TRUTH INDICATING NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. DEBATED
WARNING FOR PORTER BUT GIVEN LES SNOWFALL ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS THUS FAR... BELIEVE TRANSITORY NATURE COMBINED WITH SNOW
RATES COMING DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON (BUT STILL INCH TO INCH
AND A HALF PER HOUR) SHOULD KEEP SNOW TOTALS 6 INCHES OR LESS MOST
LOCATIONS. EVEN GIVEN SUCH... FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT
IN NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL... AND
WILL HIGHLIGHT SUCH IN STATEMENTS AND NOWCASTS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
330 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE TRANSIENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD AID IN PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SET THE ORIENTATION OVER DOWNTOWN CHICAGO EARLY...THEN PUSH EAST
ACROSS LAKE COUNTY IN...INTO PORTER COUNTY IN. LCL HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN HANDLING THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE LES BAND
RELATIVELY WELL...HOWEVER THE DRIVING FEATURE KEEPING THE BAND
LOCATED FURTHER WEST HAS BEEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STEERING WINDS TO
ULTIMATELY CONTROL THE BAND IN PUSHING IT EAST THIS MORNING.
EARLY THIS MORNING DRY AIR CONTINUED TO POUR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WAS IMPRESSIVE TO WATCH THE RADAR RETURNS QUICKLY ERODE.
DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...AND ARE EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO BE BELOW
ZERO. TEMPS ARE ALSO QUICKLY FALLING...AND EXPECT PLACES ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LASALLE TO EVANSTON LINE TO BE BELOW ZERO JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. UNFORTUNATELY WITH A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE ISALLOBARIC PRES CHG OVER THE REGION
IS POISED TO KEEP GUSTY WINDS THRU THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GIVEN SLR ARND 25:1 TO 30:1...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL EASILY
BLOW SNOW AROUND. THUS HAVE ADDED IN A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW FOR
THIS MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WILL BE ON DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
AGAIN THE PRIME AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
LASALLE TO EVANSTON WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL TO ARND -20
TO -25 DEG F THRU MID-MORNING. EXPECT AN ADDTL 2-4" OF SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF COOK COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY. FOR PORTER COUNTY VALUES
SHOULD LIKELY FALL WITHIN A 3-5" WITH A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS
RECEIVING UP TO 6" BEFORE THE LAKE BAND DISSIPATES.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY...WHICH WILL BE VERY DECEIVING GIVEN
THE STRONG COLD AIR THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO TODAY...WITH AN ARCTIC THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD OF -15 TO
-19 DEG C.
SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE...SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER
RIDING ON IT`S HEELS WILL BE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER. WINDS WILL BE
BACKING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL LINGER FOR THE EARLY EVENING...THAT
LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS NEXT CLIPPER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL ARND
MIDNIGHT. SO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY WED MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW...BUT WITH THE CONFIDENCE IN
LGT SNOW DEVELOPING...HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AFT MIDNIGHT TO HIGH CHC.
ALONG THE IL/WISC STATELINE HAVE NUDGED TO LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD EASILY RADIATE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...WHILE THE LOCAL IN HOUSE WRF IS INDICATING A FEW POCKETS OF
TEMPS DIPPING TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THIS APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER...THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED TEMPS FROM GETTING THAT COLD. HOWEVER
IF WINDS CAN REMAIN LGT...AND SFC RIDGE LINGER OVERHEAD...A FEW
AREAS IN OUR WESTERN CWFA COULD DIP TO ARND -10 TO -12 DEG F. WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING JUST BELOW WIND CHILL CRITERIA
OR ARND -15 TO -19 DEG F. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEW HEADLINES FOR
TONIGHT...BUT COULD SEE THE NEED FOR A FEW AREAS DEPENDING ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINDS FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN LAKE SNOW TIMING/SNOWFALL TOTALS...MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH THE CLIPPER SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
DEPARTURE OF THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...COUPLED WITH A
VERY POTENT SFC RIDGE POISED TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL
CANADA...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WED EVE/OVERNIGHT.
HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIP A LITTLE LONGER WED EVE BEFORE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE RETURNS AND ERODES THE LLVL MOISTURE. 500MB TROUGH AXIS
LAGS BEHIND THE MAIN VORT EARLY THUR...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF -18 TO
-22 DEG C AIR AT 850MB. THIS WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT BAND...HOWEVER THIS TIME AROUND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY TO PREVENT NORTHEAST IL FROM SEEING THE SNOW. THE
TRADITIONAL DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...PORTER COUNTY IN
APPEAR TO BE IN THE MORE FAVORED ZONE.
SFC RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THUR
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST. HOWEVER THE GRADIENT
MAINTAINS ITSELF...SO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SFC RIDGE WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
AIR PREVAILING THROUGH THUR NGT. TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND INTO THE
TEENS...HOWEVER THIS IS YET ANOTHER TEASE AS THE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
THUR WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. BOTH WED NGT AND THUR NGT APPEARS TO BE YET ANOTHER CANDIDATE
FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS...AS VALUES HOVER ARND -25 WED NGT.
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING THUR NGT WIND CHILL WARNING CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE CHALLENGE THUR NGT WILL BE BACKING WINDS TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND WARM AIR BEGINNING TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION
AS TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB AFT MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILL VALUES...MEDIUM/HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED
TO POINT TOWARDS NEARLY A +5 SIGMA 500MB RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
STRETCHING INTO EASTERN ALASKA/YUKON AREA. THE DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE 500MB VORT OVER HUDSON
BAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEND LOBES OF VORTICITY OR
CLIPPERS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
TOWARDS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LVL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE PATTERN TO BEGIN TO
MODERATE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THAT STRETCHES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
COULD PREVENT THE HUDSON BAY VORT FROM LIFTING NORTHEAST FOR VERY
LONG...AND COULD MAKE A RETURN.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS/VIS
LIKELY...OCNL IFR POSSIBLE.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
UNRESTRICTED CIG/VIS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT GYY. A LAKE EFFECT PLUME CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER
THE GYY TERMINAL AREA WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. WHILE THE TREND
FOR THE SNOW PLUME IS TO WEAKEN...GYY WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY SNOW
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION TOMORROW. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL DROP THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
AREA. THE CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING ANY HEAVIER SNOW NORTH OF THE
WISCONSIN BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BE WITHOUT
SOME IMPACT TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW...BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NRN IL/NWRN IN DURG THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHICH COULD DROP CIGS/VIS INTO IFR LEVELS DURG THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL START OUT THE DAY SWLY...BUT SHOULD
SHIFT TO NWLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
BLSN. CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS.
FRIDAY...STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH BLSN. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND MVFR CIGS DURING THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH BLSN. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND IFR.
SUNDAY....CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SEVERAL HEADLINE WORTHY WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE LAKE WILL
ABATE LATER TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TURN THE
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE TO
STRONG...AT LEAST UNTIL THE CLIPPER PASSES EAST OF THE LAKE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS OCCURS...A STRONG PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL SETUP SOME GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LAKE. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE HIGHEST
THREAT FOR GALES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF
THE LAKE...INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES INTO
THURSDAY. GALES OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR PROBABLE DURING THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG GALES WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS EVENT AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH END SOUTHWESTERLY
GALES OF 45 KT COULD OCCUR INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
STORM FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS EVENT...BUT I WILL HOLD OFF
ON PUTTING THAT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
IF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY GALES COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. SO IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...INZ001 UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ002 UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GRAY ME
1152 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST ABOUT AREAWIDE. HAVE YET
TO SEE A DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURE READING THIS MORNING... THOUGH
AT LEAST ALL THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS ARE GONE. UPPER AIR SOUNDING
THIS MORNING SHOWED VERY DEEP COLD AIR... NOT ALLOWING MUCH MIXING
TO RAISE TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS NOW HAVE THEIR MAX TEMPERATURE
LOWERED BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES TODAY.
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR TODAY AND
ISSUED NEW ONES FOR TONIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY BASED ON
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES PLUS SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
COASTAL MAINE ALONG WITH MERRIMACK AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... SPREADING
INTO COASTAL MAINE THIS EVENING.
645AM UPDATE...
***A CLOSE CALL EXPECTED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY***
A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS THIS PACKAGE THROUGH 9 AM.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING AND THICKENING LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. LEANED
TOWARDS COLDER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS TODAY...WITH OUR
SHALLOW...BUT ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOWFALL AS FAR NORTH AS
THE PORTSMOUTH AREAS BY 23Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTH INTO OUR INITIALLY DRY AIR THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST EAST COAST INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAROCLINIC
LEAF DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALL AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE
BRINGS THIS SYSTEM OFF THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE TONIGHT...
DEEPENING IT FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME... MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST ABOUT .25 INCHES QPF IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ME/NH COAST. THERE WILL BE HIGH WATER
EQUIVALENT RATIONS... LENDING TO SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 2 TO
4 INCH RANGE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...IT STILL APPEARS THAT CLOSE TO 6 INCHES WILL
ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS
SECOND PERIOD EVENT. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD CHANGE
THESE TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE ME/NH COASTLINE. A QUICK LOOK AT THE UPCOMING 12Z RUN
AND SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS THIS MORNING.
FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY...ALLOWING THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THIS BORDERLINE
WARNING EVENT FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COULD EASILY SEE THE COASTLINE REQUIRING ADVISORIES DUE TO THE
FLUFF FACTOR. IT IS A SHORT DISTANCE FROM OUR CURRENT 2-4 INCH
FORECAST TO A 3-6 INCH ADVISORIES.
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COASTLINE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...LEADING TO SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN KEEPS THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW
STATIONARY WHICH MEANS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DRY BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. OVER THE WEEKEND A CLIPPER WILL SET OFF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY EXTREME COLD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. USED
SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES/POPS. EXACT TIMING OF FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT. NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING LIKELY CAUSING
IFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTLINE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
AS THE COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE EAST. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ012>014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018-023>028.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003>005-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ008-010.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
509 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM
AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER
THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE
THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS
BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST
OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER
CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL.
HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN
AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA
THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD
MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN
ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL
EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING
INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC
TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.
SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE
OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER
REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING
ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES.
THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI
THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY
SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY.
WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/.
AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF
ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING
THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF
BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC.
WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT
TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO
-12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF
COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK
OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW
LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF
THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL
GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND
10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES
OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
LINGERING LES INTO CMX WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR VSBY WITH MVFR
CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CLOUDS AT SAW WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...PER SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS -SN AND IFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD AND KCMX WITH MVFR BY WED MORNING AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THIS HIGH WILL
PLACE A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING...DURING WHICH IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
AND PASS A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
503 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM
AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER
THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE
THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS
BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST
OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER
CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL.
HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN
AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA
THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD
MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN
ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE
ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL
EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING
INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC
TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.
SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE
OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER
REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING
ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES.
THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI
THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY
SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY.
WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/.
AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF
ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING
THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF
BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC.
WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT
TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO
-12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF
COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK
OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW
LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF
THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL
GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND
10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES
OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
LINGERING LES INTO CMX WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR VSBY WITH MVFR
CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CLOUDS AT SAW WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...PER SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS -SN AND IFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD AND KCMX WITH MVFR BY WED MORNING AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO AN END TODAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AS WINDS DIE DOWN. NEXT GALE EVENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE
FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH
MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD
AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SNOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ARE STRONGER THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AND
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. ASOS/AWOS INDICATES VSBY 1/2SM TO 3/4SM...WHICH LIKELY
MEANS OPEN AREAS ARE LESS THAN 1/2SM. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THIS AREA WHERE THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 18-22 KNOTS INTO MID-AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID INCREASE POPS T0
100% WHERE IT IS...AND WILL SNOW.
WILL TACKLE THE STRONG COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS...WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW EVENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY THIS MORNING FIRMLY WITHIN THE 25 TO 40
BELOW RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY DIPPING EVEN COLDER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WIND FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BRINGING WARM ADVECTION SNOW AHEAD OF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE. A SOLID INCH IS EXPECTED WITH UPWARDS OF TWO IN SOME
SPOTS. MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS...ALTHOUGH THE
RAP IS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR AROUND 18 UTC WITH 30
KTS. IF THE STRONGER RAP VERIFIES...GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PROBABILITY OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION BELOW 1/2 MILE IS AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR
A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE
BLOWING SNOW MODEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT TODAY IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE TREES OF NORTHWEST MN TO THE LOWER
TEENS WEST OF THE VALLEY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW TO 850 HPA AND MIXED
LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW...BUT STRONGEST WINDS WON/T MATERIALIZE
UNTIL AFTER 06 UTC TONIGHT...SO WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT VIEW A
COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE A DECISION IS MADE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO
HOIST A NEW WIND CHILL HEADLINE. EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK
INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY ALL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD (20 TO 25
BELOW) WITH CLEAR SKIES AS A 1048 TO 1050 HPA SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS EAST
OF THE HIGH CENTER ALLOWING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 40
BELOW. SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...
BUT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THURSDAY MID-
AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS DEEP
POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND THEN MOVES
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. AS IT DROPS SOUTH LOOK FOR A 500 MB SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY GIVING INCREASED WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. AHEAD
OF IT ON FRIDAY A BRIEF WARM UP WITH WEST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH SAT NIGHT-MON AS TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET AT ALL
POINTS...20 KT WINDS WILL ASSIST TO REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES TO ARD
1/2SM. WIND SHIFT LINE FROM S TO NW CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
MINOT-BISMARCK LINE...SHOULD MAKE IT TO OUR SITES THIS EVENING WITH
SUSTAINED OF 20 KTS AND GUSTS TOWARD 30. BLSN WILL THUS REMAIN AN
ISSUE THROUGH WED. MVFR CIGS CLOSELY LINKED TO SNOW AREA WILL LIFT
TO VFR ONCE SNOW ENDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-
016-026>030-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-
002-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SNOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ARE STRONGER THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AND
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. ASOS/AWOS INDICATES VSBY 1/2SM TO 3/4SM...WHICH LIKELY
MEANS OPEN AREAS ARE LESS THAN 1/2SM. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THIS AREA WHERE THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 18-22 KNOTS INTO MID-AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID INCREASE POPS T0
100% WHERE IT IS...AND WILL SNOW.
WILL TACKLE THE STRONG COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS...WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW EVENTS TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY THIS MORNING FIRMLY WITHIN THE 25 TO 40
BELOW RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY DIPPING EVEN COLDER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WIND FROM THE WEST. CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BRINGING WARM ADVECTION SNOW AHEAD OF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE. A SOLID INCH IS EXPECTED WITH UPWARDS OF TWO IN SOME
SPOTS. MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS...ALTHOUGH THE
RAP IS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR AROUND 18 UTC WITH 30
KTS. IF THE STRONGER RAP VERIFIES...GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PROBABILITY OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION BELOW 1/2 MILE IS AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR
A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE
BLOWING SNOW MODEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT TODAY IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE TREES OF NORTHWEST MN TO THE LOWER
TEENS WEST OF THE VALLEY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW TO 850 HPA AND MIXED
LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW...BUT STRONGEST WINDS WON/T MATERIALIZE
UNTIL AFTER 06 UTC TONIGHT...SO WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT VIEW A
COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE A DECISION IS MADE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO
HOIST A NEW WIND CHILL HEADLINE. EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK
INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY ALL DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD (20 TO 25
BELOW) WITH CLEAR SKIES AS A 1048 TO 1050 HPA SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS EAST
OF THE HIGH CENTER ALLOWING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 40
BELOW. SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...
BUT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THURSDAY MID-
AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS DEEP
POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND THEN MOVES
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. AS IT DROPS SOUTH LOOK FOR A 500 MB SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY GIVING INCREASED WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. AHEAD
OF IT ON FRIDAY A BRIEF WARM UP WITH WEST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH SAT NIGHT-MON AS TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MAINLY
MVFR CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH AN OCCASIONAL MIDDAY GUST UP TO 22 KTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. CEILINGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3000 FT AGL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-052-
053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-
016-026>030-054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ003-005-006-008-
009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-
002-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
357 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH BY TONIGHT...ENDING THE SNOWFALL. MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVES IN TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT CROSS THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SENT AN UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH...AND PORTIONS OF KY AND WV ADJACENT TO THE OH RIVER.
RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THE BACK EDGE OF MODERATE SNOWFALL ALREADY
PASSED HTS...AND PKB...REACHING CRW BY 20Z. ONLY FLURRIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THIS PARTICULAR AND FORMER ADVISORY AREA.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM UNTIL ALL
THE SNOW EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WIND CHILL WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE OH RIVER BY 18Z. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...WITH
SNOW AND WIND DIMINISHING SOME...SPREADING WEST TO EAST. SFC OBS
INDICATE SNOWFALL STOPPED AT UPSTREAM STATIONS WEST OF PERRY
COUNTY AND OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OH.
SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AT HTS...CRW...AND PKB AROUND
2-3PM THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS CONTINUING WITH LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL TRIM DOWN
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV COUNTIES ALONG THE
OH RIVER BY 3PM.
THE MOUNTAINS COUNTIES WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER. BASED POPS USING THE RUC13 WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT
WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF WV...AND SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 4-6 PM. LINGERING MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF
FORCING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS STILL ON TAP TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MAINLY ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES OF WV...AND ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
H5 CHARTS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH WITH STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING
JUST SOUTH...ACROSS TN INTO THE COROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST WIND FLOW BECOMING STRONG FROM THE NORTH BRINGING H85
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MINUS 22C. THEREFORE...EXPECT MUCH COLDER
AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F AT TIMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BELOW -10F ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWLANDS...SPECIFICALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY...AND NORTHERN WV LOWLAND
COUNTIES. THEREFORE...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOOSES ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION...CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED OR ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING CENTRAL WV UNTIL ALL SNOW STOPS.
PREVIOUS SNOW TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS IN SYNC WITH GROUND
REPORTS...FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES LOWLANDS...RANGING TO 5 TO 7 INCHES
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL NOT BE SURPRISE TO HAVE 8 TO 10 ACROSS
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A DEEP LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SWING OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW
TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LOWLANDS TO RIGHT AROUND ZERO
AT THE RIDGES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ABUNDANT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY ONCE THE TROUGH PUSHES PAST. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES
WITH AN 1 OR LESS LOWER DOWN. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING THEN PERSIST THROUGH
DAY...MAKING WIND CHILLS A CONTINUED CONCERN AS AN EVEN COLDER AIR
MASS PUSHES IN.
THE AXIS OF A DEEPER AND COLDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WEST
VIRGINIA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY PUTTING THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CENTERED
RIGHT OVER THE AREA AS SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND SKIES CLEAR
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD NIGHT
TIME LOWS...ESPECIALLY IF WE MANAGE TO HANG ON TO WIDESPREAD SNOW
COVER IN THE LOWLANDS. SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY MAKING FOR A RATHER NICE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IF STILL
BELOW FREEZING DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO KEEP A TROUGH FIRMLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
DRY LOW LEVELS SUGGEST THAT ANY PRECIP THAT BEGINS WILL BE SNOW OR
PERHAPS A MIX.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN
THE 20S ON MONDAY. REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. MEX
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED STILL COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO SINGLE DIGITS
MONDAY NIGHT AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 20S IN THE
LOWLANDS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST OHIO BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL CROSSING THE OH RIVER ATTM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS
OF TOTAL DEFORMATION TO AFFECT ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
CRW...NORTHEAST TO CKB. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE
LOWLAND SITES AS ONE OF THE MAIN SNOW BANDS MOVES EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNDER GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AFTER 22Z...ALONG
WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 24 KTS
ACROSS LOWLANDS AND UP TO 30 KTS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES ARE
POSSIBLE.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MOUNTAINS ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...WITH IFR CIGS HANGING ON THERE LONGER THAN LOWLANDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVE CONDITIONS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON THE END OF SNOWFALL. IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LONGER
THAN FORECAST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES
TONIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L M L L L L L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H L M M L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRLX RADAR REMAINS IN SERVICE. LEGACY RADAR PRODUCTS SHOULD BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF ACTUAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DUAL POLARIZATION
PRODUCTS MAY BE UNRELIABLE UNTIL REPLACEMENT HARDWARE ARRIVES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ008-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009>011-019-020-030>032-035>040.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LS/JR
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ARJ
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
254 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH BY TONIGHT...ENDING THE SNOWFALL. MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVES IN TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT CROSS THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SENT AN UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH...AND PORTIONS OF KY AND WV ADJACENT TO THE OH RIVER.
RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THE BACK EDGE OF MODERATE SNOWFALL ALREADY
PASSED HTS...AND PKB...REACHING CRW BY 20Z. ONLY FLURRIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THIS PARTICULAR AND FORMER ADVISORY AREA.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM UNTIL ALL
THE SNOW EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WIND CHILL WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE OH RIVER BY 18Z. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...WITH
SNOW AND WIND DIMINISHING SOME...SPREADING WEST TO EAST. SFC OBS
INDICATE SNOWFALL STOPPED AT UPSTREAM STATIONS WEST OF PERRY
COUNTY AND OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OH.
SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AT HTS...CRW...AND PKB AROUND
2-3PM THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS CONTINUING WITH LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL TRIM DOWN
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV COUNTIES ALONG THE
OH RIVER BY 3PM.
THE MOUNTAINS COUNTIES WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER. BASED POPS USING THE RUC13 WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT
WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF WV...AND SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 4-6 PM. LINGERING MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF
FORCING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS STILL ON TAP TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MAINLY ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES OF WV...AND ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
H5 CHARTS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH WITH STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING
JUST SOUTH...ACROSS TN INTO THE COROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST WIND FLOW BECOMING STRONG FROM THE NORTH BRINGING H85
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MINUS 22C. THEREFORE...EXPECT MUCH COLDER
AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F AT TIMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BELOW -10F ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWLANDS...SPECIFICALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY...AND NORTHERN WV LOWLAND
COUNTIES. THEREFORE...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOOSES ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION...CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED OR ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING CENTRAL WV UNTIL ALL SNOW STOPS.
PREVIOUS SNOW TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS IN SYNC WITH GROUND
REPORTS...FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES LOWLANDS...RANGING TO 5 TO 7 INCHES
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL NOT BE SURPRISE TO HAVE 8 TO 10 ACROSS
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP FREEZE CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOWSTORM...WITH UPPER
LEVEL L/W TROUGH LARGE AND IN CHARGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONTINENT.
THE HIGH BRINGS AN END TO ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WED MORNING...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WED FOR AN OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD DAY.
THE NEXT S/W TROUGH AND REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR APPROACH LATE
WED NT AND CROSS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DRIVES A SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PASSING N OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES. HAVE POPS INCREASING W
TO E WED NT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE WED NT THROUGH THU AT
LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE 06Z NAM12 THROWS IN A BIT OF A WRINKLE
HERE...WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING ESEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE W FRI MORNING...WINDS BACK...AND THE SENSE OF THERMAL
ADVECTION REVERSES.
BLENDED IN MAINLY NAM AND MET BASED VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH
VALUES CLOSE TO OR A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WED NT...FOLLOWED BY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE
TOWARD DAWN THU AND THROUGH THE DAY THU...NEARLY FLAT-LINE
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DURING THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES DO FALL A BIT IN THE
COLD ADVECTION THU MORNING BEFORE A SMALL RECOVERY TAKES PLACE THU
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH OVERALL FORECAST IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. LONG
WAVE TROUGH ASSOC WITH HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
AND VARYING DEGREES OF COLD TEMPS. DID TEMPER OUR `WARMUP` ON
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM LOW 20S NORTHERN LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS...BASED ON LATEST MOS GUIDE
AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPS. WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY...BUT EVEN HERE WENT A BIT COOLER VERSUS PREV FCST WITH
850/925MB TEMPS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR
LOWLANDS...WITH NORTHERN LOWLAND ZONES STRUGGLING TO CRACK THE
FREEZING MARK. STILL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY...YET WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY WPC...WITH MAX
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW-MID 30S LOWLANDS. NONETHELESS...WILL
POINT OUT THAT SHOULD THIS FRONT ARRIVE QUICKER...SUNDAY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND...GENERALLY KEPT INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAY. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO KEEP PRECIP-TYPE AS ALL SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. EVEN WITH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...DRY LOW LEVELS AND A LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WOULD
MEAN ANY PRECIP THAT INITIALLY BEGINS AS RAIN WILL VERY QUICKLY
CHANGE TO A MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. FINALLY...REGARDING MAX TEMPS ON
MONDAY...LOWERED JUST A BIT FROM PREV FCST TO TREND COOLER TO
REFLECT LOW/MID 20S LOWLANDS...WITH UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS. HOWEVER...LATEST MEX GUIDE ALREADY REFLECTING TEENS FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS CRW FOR MONDAY. LATEST ECM HOLDING ONTO A HIGH OF
27 FOR CRW. OPERATIONAL GFS/EC 925MB TEMPS OF ~13C WITH CLOUD COVER
WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS FOR THE LOWLANDS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE TEENS. STANDARD DEVIATIONS ASSOC WITH THOSE MOS TEMPS ARE WAY UP
AROUND 5-6 AND WITH MONDAY STILL BEING 7 DAYS OUT. BUT THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR MONDAY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL CROSSING THE OH RIVER ATTM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS
OF TOTAL DEFORMATION TO AFFECT ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
CRW...NORTHEAST TO CKB. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE
LOWLAND SITES AS ONE OF THE MAIN SNOW BANDS MOVES EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNDER GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AFTER 22Z...ALONG
WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 24 KTS
ACROSS LOWLANDS AND UP TO 30 KTS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES ARE
POSSIBLE.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MOUNTAINS ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...WITH IFR CIGS HANGING ON THERE LONGER THAN LOWLANDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVE CONDITIONS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON THE END OF SNOWFALL. IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LONGER
THAN FORECAST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES
TONIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L M L L L L L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H L M M L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRLX RADAR REMAINS IN SERVICE. LEGACY RADAR PRODUCTS SHOULD BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF ACTUAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DUAL POLARIZATION
PRODUCTS MAY BE UNRELIABLE UNTIL REPLACEMENT HARDWARE ARRIVES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ008-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009>011-019-020-030>032-035>040.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ
EQUIPMENT...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH BY TONIGHT...ENDING THE SNOWFALL. MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVES IN TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT CROSS THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE OH RIVER BY 18Z. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...WITH
SNOW AND WIND DIMINISHING SOME...SPREADING WEST TO EAST. SFC OBS
INDICATE SNOWFALL STOPPED AT UPSTREAM STATIONS WEST OF PERRY
COUNTY AND OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OH.
SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AT HTS...CRW...AND PKB AROUND
2-3PM THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS CONTINUING WITH LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL TRIM DOWN
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV COUNTIES ALONG THE
OH RIVER BY 3PM.
THE MOUNTAINS COUNTIES WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER. BASED POPS USING THE RUC13 WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT
WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF WV...AND SHOULD EXIT THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 4-6 PM. LINGERING MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF
FORCING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS STILL ON TAP TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MAINLY ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES OF WV...AND ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
H5 CHARTS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH WITH STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING
JUST SOUTH...ACROSS TN INTO THE COROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST WIND FLOW BECOMING STRONG FROM THE NORTH BRINGING H85
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MINUS 22C. THEREFORE...EXPECT MUCH COLDER
AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F AT TIMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BELOW -10F ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWLANDS...SPECIFICALLY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY...AND NORTHERN WV LOWLAND
COUNTIES. THEREFORE...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LOOSES ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION...CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED OR ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING CENTRAL WV UNTIL ALL SNOW STOPS.
PREVIOUS SNOW TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS IN SYNC WITH GROUND
REPORTS...FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES LOWLANDS...RANGING TO 5 TO 7 INCHES
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL NOT BE SURPRISE TO HAVE 8 TO 10 ACROSS
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN HIGHEST PEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP FREEZE CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOWSTORM...WITH UPPER
LEVEL L/W TROUGH LARGE AND IN CHARGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONTINENT.
THE HIGH BRINGS AN END TO ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WED MORNING...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WED FOR AN OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD DAY.
THE NEXT S/W TROUGH AND REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR APPROACH LATE
WED NT AND CROSS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DRIVES A SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PASSING N OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES. HAVE POPS INCREASING W
TO E WED NT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE WED NT THROUGH THU AT
LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE 06Z NAM12 THROWS IN A BIT OF A WRINKLE
HERE...WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING ESEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE W FRI MORNING...WINDS BACK...AND THE SENSE OF THERMAL
ADVECTION REVERSES.
BLENDED IN MAINLY NAM AND MET BASED VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH
VALUES CLOSE TO OR A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WED NT...FOLLOWED BY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE
TOWARD DAWN THU AND THROUGH THE DAY THU...NEARLY FLAT-LINE
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DURING THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES DO FALL A BIT IN THE
COLD ADVECTION THU MORNING BEFORE A SMALL RECOVERY TAKES PLACE THU
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH OVERALL FORECAST IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. LONG
WAVE TROUGH ASSOC WITH HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
AND VARYING DEGREES OF COLD TEMPS. DID TEMPER OUR `WARMUP` ON
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM LOW 20S NORTHERN LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS...BASED ON LATEST MOS GUIDE
AND PROGGED 925MB TEMPS. WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY...BUT EVEN HERE WENT A BIT COOLER VERSUS PREV FCST WITH
850/925MB TEMPS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR
LOWLANDS...WITH NORTHERN LOWLAND ZONES STRUGGLING TO CRACK THE
FREEZING MARK. STILL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY...YET WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY WPC...WITH MAX
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW-MID 30S LOWLANDS. NONETHELESS...WILL
POINT OUT THAT SHOULD THIS FRONT ARRIVE QUICKER...SUNDAY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND...GENERALLY KEPT INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAY. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO KEEP PRECIP-TYPE AS ALL SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. EVEN WITH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...DRY LOW LEVELS AND A LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WOULD
MEAN ANY PRECIP THAT INITIALLY BEGINS AS RAIN WILL VERY QUICKLY
CHANGE TO A MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. FINALLY...REGARDING MAX TEMPS ON
MONDAY...LOWERED JUST A BIT FROM PREV FCST TO TREND COOLER TO
REFLECT LOW/MID 20S LOWLANDS...WITH UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS. HOWEVER...LATEST MEX GUIDE ALREADY REFLECTING TEENS FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS CRW FOR MONDAY. LATEST ECM HOLDING ONTO A HIGH OF
27 FOR CRW. OPERATIONAL GFS/EC 925MB TEMPS OF ~13C WITH CLOUD COVER
WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS FOR THE LOWLANDS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE TEENS. STANDARD DEVIATIONS ASSOC WITH THOSE MOS TEMPS ARE WAY UP
AROUND 5-6 AND WITH MONDAY STILL BEING 7 DAYS OUT. BUT THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR MONDAY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL CROSSING THE OH RIVER ATTM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS
OF TOTAL DEFORMATION TO AFFECT ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
CRW...NORTHEAST TO CKB. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE
LOWLAND SITES AS ONE OF THE MAIN SNOW BANDS MOVES EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNDER GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AFTER 22Z...ALONG
WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 24 KTS
ACROSS LOWLANDS AND UP TO 30 KTS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES ARE
POSSIBLE.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MOUNTAINS ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...WITH IFR CIGS HANGING ON THERE LONGER THAN LOWLANDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVE CONDITIONS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON THE END OF SNOWFALL. IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LONGER
THAN FORECAST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES
TONIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H L L L L L L L L H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRLX RADAR REMAINS IN SERVICE. LEGACY RADAR PRODUCTS SHOULD BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF ACTUAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DUAL POLARIZATION
PRODUCTS MAY BE UNRELIABLE UNTIL REPLACEMENT HARDWARE ARRIVES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ005>007-009>011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ008-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009>011-019-020-030>032-035>040.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ076-
085>087.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ066-067-075-083-084.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ
EQUIPMENT...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
600 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST THIS
EVENING...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDY AND FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. COLDER THAN NORMAL WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
STARTED TO TRIM BACK THE ADVISORY AND WARNING FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS/FORECAST.
FROM EARLIER...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FIELDS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT/S STEADY AS SHE GOES
WITH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MEAN ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL QPF. OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWFALL AND
SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT INDICATE ABOUT A 15:1 RATIO SO FAR.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY STEADILY DECREASE OVER CENTRAL AND SWRN
PENN...WITH THE STEADIEST /AND MDT TO OCNLY HEAVY/ SNOW BECOMING
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...AT THE
NW EDGE OF A FAIRLY PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH 1-2SM VSBYS THROUGH
00-02Z ACROSS ERN YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTY...BEFORE
ENDING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE.
AS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING WIND...AND LOWERING WIND CHILLS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COMPLICATING
MATTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS /RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR. A FEW SPOTS IN OUR
FAR SE CWA COULD SEE 9 OR 10 INCHES.
PLEASE REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. SEVERAL
REPORTS OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE COME IN FROM YORK AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS
SO FAR.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOUR WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN TIER...TEENS THROUGHOUT MOST OF CENTRAL
PENN...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SE METRO AREAS.
THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE FROM NW TO SE EARLY
TONIGHT...AS DEEP DRY/FRIGID AIR PUSHES INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHALLOW STRATO CU AND -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.
BUFKIT NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO AROUND 25KTS BY THIS EVENING
EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK ABOUT 20-30 DEG OVERNIGHT TO A MORE NORTH
TO NNW DIRECTION /AND INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5-10
KTS/. GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NW. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND BITTER COLD TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO 15F IN THE SE TO
AROUND -20F ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND -5F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WESTERN MTNS...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. BUNDLE UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE A BITTER COLD NW FLOW...A FROZEN LK ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW
INVERSION HGT AND BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ABSENCE OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD CREATE BKN STRATOCU AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MCLEAR SKIES APPEAR LIKELY EAST/DOWNWIND
OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850TEMPS OF ARND -20C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM ARND 5 ABV ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO JUST THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX
PERSISTING THRU THE MED RANGE FCST...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF
WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBERTA CLIPPERS
ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY...AND SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THE NEXT
CLIPPER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...BASED ON TIMING OF ALL
MED RANGE MDLS. INCREASING MDL SPREAD MAKES TIMING OF THIRD
SHORTWAVE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...MON/TUE. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF COLD WX MAY COME TO AN END BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO WORK
IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA. HOWEVER COLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM STARTING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
MAIN SNOW BANDS WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE MDT AND LNS
AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAF
PACKAGE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF PENN IN LIGHT SNOW.
PERIODS OF VLIFR ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ACROSS THE KLNS...KMDT AND
KTHV VICINITY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS AS
SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BCMG SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVR THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. THE SNOW WILL BE OF
RELATIVELY LOW WATER CONTENT/FLUFFY GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE BLSN AT MDT/LNS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST AROUND 22/00Z.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVE /AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED/ WITH
CONDS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM PA.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
THUR...MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF -SN.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ056-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ036-
057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
446 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST LATE
TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDY AND FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX WILL RESULT
IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND 8H TEMP ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FIELDS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT/S STEADY AS SHE GOES WITH
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MEAN
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL QPF. OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWFALL AND
SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT INDICATE ABOUT A 15:1 RATIO SO FAR.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY STEADILY DECREASE OVER CENTRAL AND SWRN
PENN...WITH THE STEADIEST /AND MDT TO OCNLY HEAVY/ SNOW BECOMING
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...AT THE
NW EDGE OF A FAIRLY PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH 1-2SM VSBYS THROUGH
00-02Z ACROSS ERN YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTY...BEFORE
ENDING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE.
AS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING WIND...AND LOWERING WIND CHILLS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COMPLICATING
MATTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS /RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR. A FEW SPOTS IN OUR
FAR SE CWA COULD SEE 9 OR 10 INCHES.
PLEASE REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. SEVERAL
REPORTS OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE COME IN FROM YORK AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS
SO FAR.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOUR WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN TIER...TEENS THROUGHOUT MOST OF CENTRAL
PENN...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SE METRO AREAS.
THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE FROM NW TO SE EARLY
TONIGHT...AS DEEP DRY/FRIGID AIR PUSHES INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHALLOW STRATO CU AND -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.
BUFKIT NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO AROUND 25KTS BY THIS EVENING
EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK ABOUT 20-30 DEG OVERNIGHT TO A MORE NORTH
TO NNW DIRECTION /AND INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5-10
KTS/. GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NW. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND BITTER COLD TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO 15F IN THE SE TO
AROUND -20F ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND -5F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WESTERN MTNS...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. BUNDLE UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE A BITTER COLD NW FLOW...A FROZEN LK ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW
INVERSION HGT AND BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ABSENCE OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD CREATE BKN STRATOCU AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MCLEAR SKIES APPEAR LIKELY EAST/DOWNWIND
OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850TEMPS OF ARND -20C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM ARND 5 ABV ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO JUST THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX
PERSISTING THRU THE MED RANGE FCST...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF
WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBERTA CLIPPERS
ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY...AND SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THE NEXT
CLIPPER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...BASED ON TIMING OF ALL
MED RANGE MDLS. INCREASING MDL SPREAD MAKES TIMING OF THIRD
SHORTWAVE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...MON/TUE. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF COLD WX MAY COME TO AN END BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO WORK
IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA. HOWEVER COLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM STARTING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
MAIN SNOW BANDS WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE MDT AND LNS
AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAF
PACKAGE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF PENN IN LIGHT SNOW.
PERIODS OF VLIFR ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ACROSS THE KLNS...KMDT AND
KTHV VICINITY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS AS
SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BCMG SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVR THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. THE SNOW WILL BE OF
RELATIVELY LOW WATER CONTENT/FLUFFY GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE BLSN AT MDT/LNS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST AROUND 22/00Z.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVE /AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED/ WITH
CONDS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM PA.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
THUR...MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF -SN.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ024>028-050-052-056-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ033>036-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
402 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST LATE
TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDY AND FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX WILL RESULT
IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND 8H TEMP ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FIELDS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT/S STEADY AS SHE GOES WITH
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MEAN
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL QPF. OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWFALL AND
SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT INDICATE ABOUT A 15:1 RATIO SO FAR.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY STEADILY DECREASE OVER CENTRAL AND SWRN
PENN...WITH THE STEADIEST /AND MDT TO OCNLY HEAVY/ SNOW BECOMING
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...AT THE
NW EDGE OF A FAIRLY PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH 1-2SM VSBYS THROUGH
00-02Z ACROSS ERN YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTY...BEFORE
ENDING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE.
AS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING WIND...AND LOWERING WIND CHILLS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COMPLICATING
MATTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS /RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR. A FEW SPOTS IN OUR
FAR SE CWA COULD SEE 9 OR 10 INCHES.
PLEASE REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. SEVERAL
REPORTS OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE COME IN FROM YORK AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS
SO FAR.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOUR WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN TIER...TEENS THROUGHOUT MOST OF CENTRAL
PENN...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SE METRO AREAS.
THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE FROM NW TO SE EARLY
TONIGHT...AS DEEP DRY/FRIGID AIR PUSHES INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHALLOW STRATO CU AND -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.
BUFKIT NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO AROUND 25KTS BY THIS EVENING
EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK ABOUT 20-30 DEG OVERNIGHT TO A MORE NORTH
TO NNW DIRECTION /AND INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5-10
KTS/. GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NW. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND BITTER COLD TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO 15F IN THE SE TO
AROUND -20F ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND -5F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WESTERN MTNS...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. BUNDLE UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE A BITTER COLD NW FLOW...A FROZEN LK ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW
INVERSION HGT AND BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ABSENCE OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD CREATE BKN STRATOCU AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MCLEAR SKIES APPEAR LIKELY EAST/DOWNWIND
OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850TEMPS OF ARND -20C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM ARND 5 ABV ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO JUST THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX
PERSISTING THRU THE MED RANGE FCST...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF
WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBERTA CLIPPERS
ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY...AND SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THE NEXT
CLIPPER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...BASED ON TIMING OF ALL
MED RANGE MDLS. INCREASING MDL SPREAD MAKES TIMING OF THIRD
SHORTWAVE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...MON/TUE. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF COLD WX MAY COME TO AN END BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO WORK
IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA. HOWEVER COLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF PENN IN LIGHT SNOW.
PERIODS OF VLIFR ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ACROSS THE KLNS...KMDT AND
KTHV VICINITY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS AS
SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BCMG SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVR THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. THE SNOW WILL BE OF
RELATIVELY LOW WATER CONTENT/FLUFFY GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE BLSN AT MDT/LNS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST AROUND 22/00Z.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVE /AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED/ WITH
CONDS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM PA.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
THUR...MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF -SN.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ024>028-050-052-056-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ033>036-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
248 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST LATE
TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDY AND FRIGID AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX WILL RESULT
IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND 8H TEMP ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FIELDS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT/S STEADY AS SHE GOES WITH
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MEAN
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL QPF. OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWFALL AND
SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT INDICATE ABOUT A 15:1 RATIO SO FAR.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY STEADILY DECREASE OVER CENTRAL AND SWRN
PENN...WITH THE STEADIEST /AND MDT TO OCNLY HEAVY/ SNOW BECOMING
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...AT THE
NW EDGE OF A FAIRLY PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH 1-2SM VSBYS THROUGH
00-02Z ACROSS ERN YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTY...BEFORE
ENDING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE.
AS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING WIND...AND LOWERING WIND CHILLS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COMPLICATING
MATTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS /RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR. A FEW SPOTS IN OUR
FAR SE CWA COULD SEE 9 OR 10 INCHES.
PLEASE REFER TO PHLPNSCTP FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. SEVERAL
REPORTS OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE COME IN FROM YORK AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS
SO FAR.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOUR WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN TIER...TEENS THROUGHOUT MOST OF CENTRAL
PENN...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SE METRO AREAS.
THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE FROM NW TO SE EARLY
TONIGHT...AS DEEP DRY/FRIGID AIR PUSHES INTO THE COMMONWEALTH.
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHALLOW STRATO CU AND -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES.
BUFKIT NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TO AROUND 25KTS BY THIS EVENING
EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK ABOUT 20-30 DEG OVERNIGHT TO A MORE NORTH
TO NNW DIRECTION /AND INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5-10
KTS/. GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NW. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND BITTER COLD TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO 15F IN THE SE TO
AROUND -20F ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND -5F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WESTERN MTNS...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. BUNDLE UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE A BITTER COLD NW FLOW...A FROZEN LK ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW
INVERSION HGT AND BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ABSENCE OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LYR OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD CREATE BKN STRATOCU AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE MCLEAR SKIES APPEAR LIKELY EAST/DOWNWIND
OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850TEMPS OF ARND -20C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM ARND 5 ABV ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO JUST THE MTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX
PERSISTING THRU THE MED RANGE FCST...WITH ONE PIECE LINGERING JUST
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES IN THE
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF
WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALBERTA CLIPPERS
ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT CLIPPER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY...BASED ON TIMING OF ALL MED RANGE MDLS. INCREASING MDL
SPREAD MAKES TIMING OF THIRD SHORTWAVE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT
PROBABLY MON/TUE. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE OUR LONG STRETCH OF COLD
WX MAY COME TO AN END BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN GEFS AND EC
ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO WORK IT/S WAY EAST TOWARD PA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF PENN IN LIGHT SNOW.
PERIODS OF VLIFR ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ACROSS THE KLNS...KMDT AND
KTHV VICINITY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS AS
SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BCMG SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVR THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. THE SNOW WILL BE OF
RELATIVELY LOW WATER CONTENT/FLUFFY GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE BLSN AT MDT/LNS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST AROUND 22/00Z.
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVE /AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED/ WITH
CONDS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM PA.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
THUR...MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF -SN.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR-IFR IN AREAS OF -SN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ024>028-050-052-056-058.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ033>036-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT