Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/16/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 104 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN
NOTED. THE LATEST RUC13 DEPICTS RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE REGION TO THE N/W OF DEVELOPING
SFC WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT PERIODS OF
RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DECREASING
FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM. SO...FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS S AND E...THE RAIN SHOULD STILL BE
FALLING DURING THE BULK OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME WET SNOW MIXES IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING...BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER APPEARS TO WARM FOR VALLEY LOCALES TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW...DESPITE STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN F-GEN BANDS.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...OR
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...PARTICUALRLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SO...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER PCPN WILL END EARLY TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 20S...BUT IF ENOUGH CLOUDINESS LINGERS THROUGH THE NIGHT...
THEN EXPECT TEMPS TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE SO SLOW MOVING THAT THE THREAT OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES WITH THE BEST FORCING
OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY BE FORECASTING 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE POPS DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THE POPS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER TO ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S...THEN HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO FEATURE A
RATHER CHAOTIC PATTERN WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DURING THIS TIME ONLY
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE TROUGHS MAY IMPACT OUR AREA...WITH
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINING TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
NEAR SURFACE TEMPS LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.

SOME GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HOWEVER...OUR REGION LOOKS TO
ESCAPE ANY BITTER COLD WHICH SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION IN
CANADA. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
LOOKS MURKY AT BEST. WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TO
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. MODELS DEPICTING VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
THOUGH...AS THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS CHAOTIC. IF THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED LIKE THE ECMWF IS IMPLYING...THIS WOULD FAVOR
COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS SHOWING A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE GGEM LIES SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN DEPICTING MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT. BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO RULE OUT ANY SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT SO WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT TO THE FRIGID READINGS THE
MODELS WERE IMPLYING THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE STILL REMAINING IN A
MEAN UPPER TROUGH...THE TROUGH IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE FLATTER AND
LESS AMPLIFIED...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE REALLY COLD AIR BOTTLED UP
NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE
TROUGH COULD OCCUR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING...AS
SATURATION HAS BEEN GRADUAL. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL IFR AS WELL BY 15Z-18Z.
WILL MENTION IFR IN TEMPOS. RAIN SHOULD END AROUND 23Z-24Z...AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL BECOME NEAR CALM DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
RAINFALL.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 3-9 KT...THEN
DECREASE TO 3-5 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A VARIABLE DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BECOME NEAR
CALM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE JAM MOVEMENT HAS OCCURRED AT SCHENECTADY AND ALONG THE HOOSICK
RIVER NEAR BUSKIRK. RIVER LEVELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD AS THE ICE
MOVES DOWNSTREAM AND BREAKS UP...SO NO FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. FORECAST
QPF GENERALLY RANGES FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH. THESE
RAINFALL AMTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON
RIVERS/STREAMS AT THIS TIME.

MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE POSSIBLE WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THESE WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ONCE AGAIN...AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WORKWEEK...THEN TURN COLDER THIS WEEKEND AT WHICH TIME ICE MAY AGAIN
BEGIN TO FORM ON ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 1256 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY AND PASS EAST OF LONG ISLAND
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE LOWS IMPACT THE NORTHEAST
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

REGION CURRENTLY IN...AND FORECAST TO BE UNDER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF 170+ KT 250 HPA JET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FORCING...AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN WATER VAPOR
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR REMAINDER OF DAY. COULD
SEE SOME LULLS IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...SO WENT WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...EXPECT ANY VISIBILITIES
TO GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 3 MILES.

GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT
IN TEMPERATURE TODAY...SO HAVE UPDATED BASED UPON BLEND OF
LAV/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND RUC 2-METER TEMPERATURES WHICH
REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA EARLY THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS NO STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT SO CLEARING WILL BE
SLOW. THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT.

EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NAM
MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK OVERDONE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG AT OUTLYING LOCATIONS. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 30S IN METRO NY/NJ.

AS ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT ANOTHER WILL DIVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE
SFC...WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA ON WED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGHS ON WED ARE TRICKY AS THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP STRATUS ON A
S-SE FLOW...WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC WITH A SW FLOW.
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MORE OPTIMISTIC AND WARMER GFS FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE MODELS HANDLING
OF THE EVOLUTION OF MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. PERIOD STARTS
OFF AND GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER A AMPLIFYING TROUGH...RESULTING IN A
EXTENDED THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF COASTAL
LOW FORMATIONS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WED. FIRST ISSUE AT HAND IS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING THE OUTLIER ON THE PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH. GENERAL CONSENSUS WOULD LEND WITH THE LOW FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURS MORNING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHES OFFSHORE. THE LOW TREKS TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY...PASSING EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AROUND 00Z
FRI. 00Z NAM/CMC DEVELOP A MUCH DEEPER LOW...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENING DURING THE
DAY. AS SUCH...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION
PUSHES THURS. WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WED
NIGHT...THEN MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
CHANCE POPS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND INTO CT. LATEST MODEL RUNS DO
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE
LOW...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
FURTHER WEST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST BY
THURS NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IN PLACE LATE THURS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE REGION SITS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE IN.
THE LATTER LOW WILL PLAY THE PART IN BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...ONCE AGAIN THE
MODELS DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FRI NIGHT. AS A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE TROUGH...EXPECTING A MUCH DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
COASTAL LOW SAT-SAT NIGHT THAN WAS SEEN WITH THE COASTAL LOW
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. GFS...AS IT TENDS TO BE...IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN MOVING THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...THUS ALLOWING FOR MOST OF ITS
DEEPENING TO OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.
ECMWF AND CMC LAG A BIT MORE...SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER INTO SAT EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL CAP WITH CHANCE
POPS...THOUGH THIS IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION SAT...WITH THE TIMING THE UNKNOWN FACTOR.

THE PASSING OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW COULD BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...WITH EVEN THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER
POSSIBLE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY THAT COULD KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY/FORCING TO
THE NORTH...AND THUS KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND SHOULD FINALLY USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS. TEMPS THEN HOVER NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SIDED WITH A BLEND OF ECE/WPC
FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. TERMINALS NEAR THE COASTS MAY
HAVE CONDS DROP TO LIFR FROM TIME TO TIME WHEN THE RAIN LETS UP.
OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR UNTIL RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 01Z-04Z.

SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER RAIN ENDS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...AND WITHOUT
A SURGE OF COOLER/DRYER AIR INTO THE REGION...CAN EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL TEMPO
MVFR/IFR FOG FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

SOUTH WINDS BECOME W/NW GOING INTO THE EVENING...THEN WILL BACK TO
THE S WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY. OCNL LIFR CIGS INTO THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...IFR CONDS IN RAIN...IMPROVING LATE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY. CONDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS EVENING IN RAIN...IMPROVING LATE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY. CONDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS EVENING IN RAIN...IMPROVING LATE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY. CONDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS EVENING IN RAIN...IMPROVING LATE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY. OCNL LIFR CONDS INTO THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...IFR CONDS IN RAIN...IMPROVING LATE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY. OCNL LIFR CONDS INTO THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...IFR CONDS IN RAIN...IMPROVING LATE.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WINTRY MIX N/W
OF NYC TERMINALS...RAIN ELSEWHERE. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. TIMING UNCERTAIN.
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
.SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW. CHANCE
W-NW GUSTS 25 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS AT 44017 DOWN TO 4.3 FT FOR PAST FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND ONLY SEEING 1.6 FT OF
SWELL UPSTREAM AT 44066...AND WAVEWATCH RUNNING 1 TO 2 FT TOO
HIGH...HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT 5 FT
SEAS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT. LIKELY WILL LOWER SEAS TO 4 FT WITH
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF EACH COASTAL LOW AND WHERE IT
DEPENDS THE MOST...COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS FORM. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 25-30 KTS SAT INTO MON. GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL SAT-
SUN ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST 5 FT
EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE
SEAS BUILD 6-9 FT OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH THE INCREASING
WIND FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON TUE...BUT
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.
WHILE THIS WILL NOT GENERATE ANY FLOOD THREATS...THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS. ANY OBSERVED OR
REPORTED ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD
WARNING WITH LITTLE NOTICE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.

DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.

DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...24/MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...24/MALOIT
EQUIPMENT...









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 1140 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY AND PASS EAST OF LONG ISLAND
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE LOWS IMPACT THE NORTHEAST
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

REGION CURRENTLY IN...AND FORECAST TO BE UNDER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF 170+ KT 250 HPA JET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FORCING...AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN WATER VAPOR
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR REMAINDER OF DAY. COULD
SEE SOME LULLS IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...SO WENT WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...EXPECT ANY VISIBILITIES
TO GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 3 MILES.

GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT
IN TEMPERATURE TODAY...SO HAVE UPDATED BASED UPON BLEND OF
LAV/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND RUC 2-METER TEMPERATURES WHICH
REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA EARLY THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS NO STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT SO CLEARING WILL BE
SLOW. THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT.

EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NAM
MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK OVERDONE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG AT OUTLYING LOCATIONS. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 30S IN METRO NY/NJ.

AS ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT ANOTHER WILL DIVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE
SFC...WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA ON WED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGHS ON WED ARE TRICKY AS THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP STRATUS ON A
S-SE FLOW...WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC WITH A SW FLOW.
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MORE OPTIMISTIC AND WARMER GFS FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE MODELS HANDLING
OF THE EVOLUTION OF MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. PERIOD STARTS
OFF AND GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER A AMPLIFYING TROUGH...RESULTING IN A
EXTENDED THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF COASTAL
LOW FORMATIONS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WED. FIRST ISSUE AT HAND IS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING THE OUTLIER ON THE PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH. GENERAL CONSENSUS WOULD LEND WITH THE LOW FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURS MORNING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHES OFFSHORE. THE LOW TREKS TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY...PASSING EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AROUND 00Z
FRI. 00Z NAM/CMC DEVELOP A MUCH DEEPER LOW...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENING DURING THE
DAY. AS SUCH...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION
PUSHES THURS. WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WED
NIGHT...THEN MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
CHANCE POPS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND INTO CT. LATEST MODEL RUNS DO
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE
LOW...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
FURTHER WEST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST BY
THURS NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IN PLACE LATE THURS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE REGION SITS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE IN.
THE LATTER LOW WILL PLAY THE PART IN BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...ONCE AGAIN THE
MODELS DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FRI NIGHT. AS A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE TROUGH...EXPECTING A MUCH DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
COASTAL LOW SAT-SAT NIGHT THAN WAS SEEN WITH THE COASTAL LOW
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. GFS...AS IT TENDS TO BE...IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN MOVING THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...THUS ALLOWING FOR MOST OF ITS
DEEPENING TO OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.
ECMWF AND CMC LAG A BIT MORE...SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER INTO SAT EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL CAP WITH CHANCE
POPS...THOUGH THIS IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION SAT...WITH THE TIMING THE UNKNOWN FACTOR.

THE PASSING OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW COULD BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...WITH EVEN THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER
POSSIBLE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY THAT COULD KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY/FORCING TO
THE NORTH...AND THUS KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND SHOULD FINALLY USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS. TEMPS THEN HOVER NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SIDED WITH A BLEND OF ECE/WPC
FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. VFR DETERIORATES TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR AHEAD OF IT WITH
STRATUS...FOG...AND RAIN MOVING IN ESPECIALLY IN THE TIME FRAME OF
MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 15Z-22Z.
EXPECT SOME VARIABILITY AND FLUCTUATION OF CATEGORIES WITHIN THE
TIME FRAME FROM SITE TO SITE WITH AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO BETTER
REFINE TIMING OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MVFR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS RAIN EVENTUALLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. STRATUS SHOULD
SCATTER...WITH FOG LINGERING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING
MOISTURE. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DIRECTION S-SW BECOMING W-NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE...TAKING A MORE
ONSHORE DIRECTION BY WED MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH WIND SPEED FORECAST AND MODERATE
WITH THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AS TIMING OF LOWERING CATEGORY COULD BE OFF BY
1-3 HOURS...LIKELY BEING LATER THAN FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MINIMUM CATEGORIES TODAY COULD BE END UP BEING ONE LEVEL
HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE TODAY. MVFR AND IFR MAY OCCUR 1-3 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE TODAY. MVFR AND IFR MAY OCCUR 1-3 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE TODAY. MVFR AND IFR MAY OCCUR 1-3 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE TODAY. MVFR AND IFR MAY OCCUR 1-3 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE TODAY. IFR AND LIFR MAY OCCUR 1-3 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE TODAY. MVFR AND IFR MAY OCCUR 1-3 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED...POSSIBLE MVFR IN MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
.WED NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WINTRY MIX N/W OF NYC
TERMINALS...RAIN ELSEWHERE. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.THU-THU EVE...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE - TIMING UNCERTAIN.
.LATE THU NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR.
.SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR AND MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE - TIMING
UNCERTAIN. CHANCE W-NW GUSTS 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS AT 44017 DOWN TO 4.3 FT FOR PAST FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND ONLY SEEING 1.6 FT OF
SWELL UPSTREAM AT 44066...AND WAVEWATCH RUNNING 1 TO 2 FT TOO
HIGH...HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT 5 FT
SEAS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT. LIKELY WILL LOWER SEAS TO 4 FT WITH
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF EACH COASTAL LOW AND WHERE IT
DEPENDS THE MOST...COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS FORM. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 25-30 KTS SAT INTO MON. GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL SAT-
SUN ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST 5 FT
EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE
SEAS BUILD 6-9 FT OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH THE INCREASING
WIND FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON TUE...BUT
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.
WHILE THIS WILL NOT GENERATE ANY FLOOD THREATS...THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS. ANY OBSERVED OR
REPORTED ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD
WARNING WITH LITTLE NOTICE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.

DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.

DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...24/SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/24/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/24
EQUIPMENT...





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 959 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY AND PASS EAST OF LONG ISLAND
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE LOWS IMPACT THE NORTHEAST
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION CURRENTLY IN...AND FORECAST TO BE UNDER RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF 170+ KT 250 HPA JET ALL DAY. BASED ON THIS FORCING...AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN WATER VAPOR HAVE CONTINUED
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR REMAINDER OF DAY. COULD SEE SOME LULLS
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...SO WENT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. WHILE SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...EXPECT ANY VISIBILITIES TO GENERALLY BE
AT OR ABOVE 3 MILES...SO HAVE REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM THE
FORECAST.

GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT
IN TEMPERATURE TODAY...SO HAVE UPDATED BASED UPON BLEND OF
LAV/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND HRRR 2-METER TEMPERATURES WHICH
REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA EARLY THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS NO STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT SO CLEARING WILL BE
SLOW. THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT.

EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NAM
MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK OVERDONE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG AT OUTLYING LOCATIONS. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 30S IN METRO NY/NJ.

AS ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT ANOTHER WILL DIVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE
SFC...WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA ON WED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGHS ON WED ARE TRICKY AS THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP STRATUS ON A
S-SE FLOW...WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC WITH A SW FLOW.
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MORE OPTIMISTIC AND WARMER GFS FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE MODELS HANDLING
OF THE EVOLUTION OF MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. PERIOD STARTS
OFF AND GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER A AMPLIFYING TROUGH...RESULTING IN A
EXTENDED THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF COASTAL
LOW FORMATIONS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WED. FIRST ISSUE AT HAND IS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING THE OUTLIER ON THE PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH. GENERAL CONSENSUS WOULD LEND WITH THE LOW FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURS MORNING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHES OFFSHORE. THE LOW TREKS TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY...PASSING EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AROUND 00Z
FRI. 00Z NAM/CMC DEVELOP A MUCH DEEPER LOW...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENING DURING THE
DAY. AS SUCH...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION
PUSHES THURS. WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE WED
NIGHT...THEN MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
CHANCE POPS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND INTO CT. LATEST MODEL RUNS DO
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE
LOW...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
FURTHER WEST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST BY
THURS NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IN PLACE LATE THURS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE REGION SITS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE IN.
THE LATTER LOW WILL PLAY THE PART IN BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...ONCE AGAIN THE
MODELS DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FRI NIGHT. AS A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE TROUGH...EXPECTING A MUCH DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
COASTAL LOW SAT-SAT NIGHT THAN WAS SEEN WITH THE COASTAL LOW
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. GFS...AS IT TENDS TO BE...IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN MOVING THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...THUS ALLOWING FOR MOST OF ITS
DEEPENING TO OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.
ECMWF AND CMC LAG A BIT MORE...SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER INTO SAT EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL CAP WITH CHANCE
POPS...THOUGH THIS IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION SAT...WITH THE TIMING THE UNKNOWN FACTOR.

THE PASSING OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW COULD BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...WITH EVEN THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER
POSSIBLE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY THAT COULD KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY/FORCING TO
THE NORTH...AND THUS KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH.

TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND SHOULD FINALLY USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS. TEMPS THEN HOVER NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SIDED WITH A BLEND OF ECE/WPC
FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. VFR DETERIORATES TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR AHEAD OF IT WITH
STRATUS...FOG...AND RAIN MOVING IN ESPECIALLY IN THE TIME FRAME OF
MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 15Z-22Z.
EXPECT SOME VARIABILITY AND FLUCTUATION OF CATEGORIES WITHIN THE
TIME FRAME FROM SITE TO SITE WITH AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO BETTER
REFINE TIMING OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MVFR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS RAIN EVENTUALLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. STRATUS SHOULD
SCATTER...WITH FOG LINGERING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING
MOISTURE. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DIRECTION S-SW BECOMING W-NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE...TAKING A MORE
ONSHORE DIRECTION BY WED MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH WIND SPEED FORECAST AND MODERATE
WITH THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AS TIMING OF LOWERING CATEGORY COULD BE OFF BY
1-3 HOURS...LIKELY BEING LATER THAN FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MINIMUM CATEGORIES TODAY COULD BE END UP BEING ONE LEVEL
HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE TODAY. MVFR AND IFR MAY OCCUR 1-3 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE TODAY. MVFR AND IFR MAY OCCUR 1-3 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE TODAY. MVFR AND IFR MAY OCCUR 1-3 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE TODAY. MVFR AND IFR MAY OCCUR 1-3 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE TODAY. IFR AND LIFR MAY OCCUR 1-3 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY AS CONDITIONS COULD
FLUCTUATE TODAY. MVFR AND IFR MAY OCCUR 1-3 HRS LATER THAN
FORECAST.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED...POSSIBLE MVFR IN MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
.WED NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WINTRY MIX N/W OF NYC
TERMINALS...RAIN ELSEWHERE. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.THU-THU EVE...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE - TIMING UNCERTAIN.
.LATE THU NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR.
.SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR AND MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE - TIMING
UNCERTAIN. CHANCE W-NW GUSTS 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT 44017 DOWN TO 4.3 FT FOR PAST TWO HOURS...WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND ONLY SEEING 1.6 FT OF
SWELL UPSTREAM AT 44066...AND WAVEWATCH RUNNING 1 TO 2 FT TOO
HIGH...HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT 5 FT
SEAS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT. LIKELY WILL LOWER SEAS TO 4 FT WITH
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB- SCA WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF EACH COASTAL LOW AND WHERE IT
DEPENDS THE MOST...COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS FORM. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 25-30 KTS SAT INTO MON. GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL SAT-
SUN ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST 5 FT
EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE
SEAS BUILD 6-9 FT OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH THE INCREASING
WIND FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON TUE...BUT
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.
WHILE THIS WILL NOT GENERATE ANY FLOOD THREATS...THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS. ANY OBSERVED OR
REPORTED ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD
WARNING WITH LITTLE NOTICE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.

DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.

DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST TODAY
     FOR ANZ353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...24/SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/24/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/24
EQUIPMENT...





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 540 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET WAS HELPING SUPPORT SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED BUT
THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SHOW COVERAGE INCREASING AGAIN LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS INCREASE APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE
AREA. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST FROM ABOUT 1100 AM TO 100 PM. DRYING BEHIND THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BECOME
DOMINATE BEGINNING AROUND 100 PM ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS. WE
WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
MIXING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST APPEARS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT POPS LESS THAN
20 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL PART TO 20 TO 50 PERCENT IN
THE NORTH PART WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS THE
LEAST MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLAN TO FORECAST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH PART AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS.
THE HIGHER NAM MOS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING FOR SNOW IN THE NORTH PART BUT WITH
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME. THE NAM... GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE DRYING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60 WEDNESDAY. THE WARM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY APPEAR REASONABLE BECAUSE OF WARMING THAT WILL OCCUR
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO
AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE NATION. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED LESS MOISTURE
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. WE
MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS INCREASED FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS INDICATED BY THE
GFS...ECMWF AND EKD MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
NOW ENTERING THE TN VALLEY. EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AROUND 15Z-16Z TODAY. IN ADDITION...LLWS MAY BE A CONCERN UNTIL 15Z
AS WELL WITH SW WINDS AROUND 30 KTS AT 2 KFT. THREAT OF RAIN WILL
END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER FRONT PASSES LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR WITH RISING CIGS. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIP OR
RESTRICTIONS...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 243 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET WAS HELPING SUPPORT SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED BUT
THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SHOW COVERAGE INCREASING AGAIN LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS INCREASE APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE
AREA. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST FROM ABOUT 1100 AM TO 100 PM. DRYING BEHIND THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BECOME
DOMINATE BEGINNING AROUND 100 PM ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS. WE
WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
MIXING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST APPEARS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT POPS LESS THAN
20 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL PART TO 20 TO 50 PERCENT IN
THE NORTH PART WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS THE
LEAST MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLAN TO FORECAST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH PART AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS.
THE HIGHER NAM MOS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING FOR SNOW IN THE NORTH PART BUT WITH
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME. THE NAM... GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE DRYING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60 WEDNESDAY. THE WARM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY APPEAR REASONABLE BECAUSE OF WARMING THAT WILL OCCUR
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO
AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE NATION. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED LESS MOISTURE
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. WE
MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS INCREASED FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS INDICATED BY THE
GFS...ECMWF AND EKD MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING UPPER
IMPULSE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA...WITH THE
BACK EDGE HAVING CLEARED AGS/DNL. SECONDARY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE
SATURATED. LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS CIGS DOWN TO IFR...WITH MVFR
VSBYS...WITH MOST RESTRICTIONS IN THE 08Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE MID TO LATE MORNING TUE...EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY WITH RISING CIGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIP OR
RESTRICTIONS...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 1139 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

JUST ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
30 FOR TUESDAY. THE ADVISORY IS FOR A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE 00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE LATEST
HRRR AND RUC13 STILL SUGGEST ACCUMULATING SNOW SPREADING OVER THE
AREA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE MAY BE
A MIX AT THE ONSET ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I80 BUT TO THE NORTH IT
SHOULD BE BRIEF IF AT ALL. 18Z/00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN THE 7 TO 8 C/KM RANGE WHEN THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH
SUGGESTING A CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE SNOW. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME STRONG REFLECTIVITIES OVER THE NORTH
THIRD BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. I/M NOT SURE IT WILL THUNDER...BUT IT
CERTAINLY LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE SOME BRIEF BUT HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW
FOR SOME AREAS TOMORROW MORNING. KEPT AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE BUT ADDED THE LOCALLY HIGHER CAVEAT WITH THE POTENTIAL
CONVECTION. THE WIND SHOULD KICK WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING.
MENTIONED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER
DEVELOPING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR. WIND GUSTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIX LAYER ARE PROGGED TO BE 40 TO 45 KTS. IF MODELS
MAINTAIN THESE STRONG ELEVATED WINDS IN LATER RUNS THEN THIS COULD
LEAD TO A WIND ADVISORY BEING ISSUED LATER TONIGHT...SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TO END ANY SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

A DYNAMIC AND CHALLENGING FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANALYSIS AND
VERIFICATION AT NOON INDICATE A FAST MOVING AND QUITE INTENSE
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM IS DIVING RAPIDLY SE AND IS NOW MOVING INTO
MONTANA AS OF 2 PM CST. PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLETS...WINDS AND
PRESSURE ALL INDICATE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND DIGGING MORE THAN
MOST SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z. THIS SUPPORTS OCCLUSION AND PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING TO EXPLODE BEFORE IT GETS TO FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH NON
LINEARITY OF THE IMBALANCES DUE TO ACCELERATIONS (NON-HYDROSTATIC)
AND MIXING (NON-ADIABATIC) SUGGEST LOTS OF CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH
IMPACTS ON TRACKS OF SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WIND AND
WIND GUSTS. LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES ALL SUGGEST NORTHERN 1/2 OF
AREA THE BIGGEST AFFECTED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH LOBE
ON INTENSE BUT NARROW SNOW BAND PASSING TOWARD MORNING. UPSTREAM
ENERGY AND ANALYSIS INDICATE MORE CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH A LARGER
AND STRONGER SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

TONIGHT...ONE OF THE STRONGER ALBERTA CLIPPER TO AFFECT FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT WELL INTO TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION WING SNOW WITH
SOME SLEET AND RAIN FAR SE SECTIONS THAT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DUE
TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BLOOM ACROSS MID PORTIONS OF IOWA
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL REACH NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AROUND 6 AM WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE PER "LIFT"
TOOL ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. EXPECT A 10-30 MILE WIDE BAND OF 30-40+
DBZ ECHOES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1+ INCH AN HOUR THAT MAY LAST
ANYWHERE FROM 15 MINUTES TO OVER AN HOUR. MOST LOCATIONS WILL PICK
UP .75 TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 WITH HEAVIEST SNOWS
NORTH OF TRIPLE POINT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO TO
20+ MPH OVERNIGHT. MINS 25 TO 32 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
LOWS MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG AND VERY GUSTY WINDS. STRONG
COLD FRONT WITH SNOWS DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES BY MID/LATE MORNING
WITH NW WINDS ARRIVING FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 6 AM AND 11 AM. LOCAL
TOOLS ALL INDICATE 25 TO 35+ MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
THAT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MINOR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DUE TO ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
THE LOW/MID TWENTIES TOWARD DUSK WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE FAR NW
SECTIONS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE AN OPTION IF SNOWS
LINGER AND ARE A BIT HIGHER ON SNOW AMOUNTS.     NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
TO CONTINUE INTO TUE EVENING...AND PROBABLY NOT DROPPING OFF TO
10-15 MPH TIL LATE IF BULK OF WRAP AROUND STRATUS MAINTAINS ACRS THE
AREA. MORE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW OR SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING OFF TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...BUT DEEPENING CYCLONIC FLOW COULD
CONTINUE TO WRING OUT FLURRIES ACRS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WELL INTO
THE NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO VARY ON HOW COLD IT WILL
GET BY WED MORNING...AND IF CLOUDS AND BRISK MIXING WINDS LINGER
INTO WED MORNING THE MILDER OF THE LOW TEMP GUIDANCE MAY VERIFY
BETTER. BUT STRENGTH OF LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO MUST BE TAKEN
INTO ACCOUNT AND FEEL A BLEND OF ALL SOLUTIONS MAY TAKE ALL OF THESE
VARIABLES INTO ACCOUNT. WIND CHILLS MAY STILL GET TO 10 BELOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY WED MORNING. A PASSING BOUT OF BOTH SFC
AND UPPER RIDGING TO MAKE FOR A FAIR WX DAY WED WITH LATE DAY RETURN
FLOW HELPING TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THEN AN INTENSE ALBERTA TYPE CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STILL BEING SLATED BY THE MODELS TO RIDE ACRS NORTHWEST
PACIFIC RIDGE AND DUMP DOWN TOWARD THE WESTERN LK SUPERIOR BSN
THROUGH THU MORNING. WILL THROW OUT THE 12Z GFS WHICH KEEPS THE DVN
CWA DRY OVERNIGHT AND THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANKING WARM AIR ADVECTION
WING OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF US...WHILE THE BULK OF THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS SWEEP SOME TYPE OF ELEVATED SNOW BAND ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA INTO EARLY THU MORNING. WILL EXPAND THE CHC POPS SOUTHWARD.
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EVEN OCCUR ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80
BY 12Z THU. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL
FLOW ACRS THE AREA TO THE LEE OF THIS SYSTEM...LOW TEMPS MAY OCCUR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. BUT EVAPO-COOLING FROM ANY PRECIP WING MAY MAKE FOR STEADY
TEMP PERIODS AS WELL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUB 990 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE LOOKING TO DIG
DOWN ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL GRT LKS THU. LATEST PLACEMENT
AND HANDLING ON 12Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT
AFTER WHAT EVEN WAA WING OF PRECIP THAT MANAGES TO MAKE IT ACRS THE
LOCAL ARE CLEARS OFF TO THE EAST THU MORNING...THE DVN CWA WILL
TEMPORARILY BE IN A DRY SLOT AND TYPE OF WARM SECTOR...BEFORE A VERY
STRONG IN-WRAPPING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS ALL
OF IA BY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. RATHER MILD HIGHS IN THE
30S MAY OCCUR THU MORNING...BEFORE TEMPS FALL OFF AGAIN. BUT THE
MAIN WX STORY STILL LOOKS LIKE WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WINDS SURGING
ACRS THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND LASTING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THU NIGHT. VERY TIGHT LLVL CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT...A PROBABLE
VERY LARGE PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET TO ENHANCE ISALLOBARIC SURGE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...AND EARLY SIGNS OF A TROP-FOLD DOWN TO
UNDER 550 MB ROTATING ACRS THE REGION THU EVENING SHOULD MAKE FOR
HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET IN OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
CWA. EARLY INDICATIONS STILL POINT AT GUSTS OF 45 TO NEAR 50 MPH BY
THUR EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS IN WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS THU
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MAY MAKE FOR GREATLY REDUCED LOCALIZED
VSBYS. GENERAL ENSEMBLES AND GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT ALSO POINT TO -20C
H85 MB COLD POOL TO GET ADVECTED DOWN ACRS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING. DESPITE MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...STOUT LLVL COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO DRIVE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...TO LOWER TEENS THROUGH FRI MORNING. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE NEARED IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY EARLY
FRI MORNING. INCOMING RIDGE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON FRI UNTIL WIND DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
UPSTREAM RIDGE DRAWS CLOSER. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS AT
SOME RENEWED DIURNAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FRI MORNING BEFORE THEY
DECAY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. BRUNT OF LLVL COLD POOL PROGGED TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO RECOVER TO THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH OF I80...UPPER TEENS SOUTH. RIDGE OVERHEAD...SFC WIND
DECOUPLE AND CLOUD CLEAR-OFF MAY MAKE FOR A SUBZERO NIGHT
IN PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA. BUT THE 1Z GFS SHUTTLES A CLIPPER DOWN IN
FRESHLY HIGH AMPLIFIED NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROF BASE. THUS THIS MODEL STARTS TO WARM AIR ADVECT
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS PRODUCE 1-3+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA BY SAT MORNING. BULK OF OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE DRY AND COLD AND WILL SIDE THAT WAY FOR NOW. PROBABLY
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR FRI NIGHT LOWS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MODEL RUN VARIANCES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS
AND THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THEMSELVES CONTINUE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. BUT
AGAIN...ASSESSING THE GENERAL TRENDS AND BEHAVIOR OF UPPER JET
DYNAMICS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY FLATTENING OUT OF THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN
ACRS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUAL TEMP
MODERATION BACK INTO THE 30S OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP MAKERS EVIDENT AT THIS POINT AS WELL DURING
THIS PERIOD. BUT TRENDS IN THE OSCILLATIONS AND SOME INFLUENCE OFF
THE NORTH PACIFIC...POINT TO THE COLD CORE L/W TROF SNAPPING BACK
INTO PLACE ACRS THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CONUS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
BOTH THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS IDEA
WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC SURGE FLOWING DOWN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MS RVR VALLEY NEXT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX
TRIES TO MIGRATE SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AGAIN. UPPER RIDGES TO AGAIN
REIGN OFF THE COASTS.      ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST REACHING SOUTHWESTERN WI TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. AROUND 09Z SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST WITH
THE SNOW SPREADING EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z. AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 COULD SEE A BRIEF...LESS THAN ONE
HOUR...PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH THE SNOW WHILE TO THE
SOUTH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF
RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANY MIXED PCPN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER CAN/T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND MID MORNING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND
35KTS. THE STRONG WIND WITH NEW SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW
WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO IN A
NUTSHELL VFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN LOWERING
MVFR/IFR TOWARD MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY. THE WIND WILL BE
DIMINISHING SOME AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DLF
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...DLF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1234 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

THE HRRR MODEL STILL HAS A GOOD HANDLE WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT THIS TREND AS WELL...SO NO MAJOR
UPDATE WAS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE REFRESHED A BIT
USING THE LATEST DATA...BUT ALL IN THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THROUGH
12Z TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1037 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS
BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...IT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN
THE WAY OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AS A
RESULT...UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER TO DELAY THE EXIT OF THE RAIN ONCE
MORE. LATEST HRRR INITIATED WELL WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS...SO LEANED
TOWARDS THIS MODEL...AS WELL AS CURRENT TRENDS...TO COME UP WITH
TIMING OVER THE REST OF TONIGHT. CIGS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LOWERING
ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEARLY
STEADY...WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO INCLUDE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE EXITING RAINFALL BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...AS LATEST RADAR RETURNS AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE ARE BOTH
SUPPORTING THIS TREND. IN FACT...MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO UPDATE TO
SLOW THE TIMING EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO...LATEST SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST MOIST CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO FORM
ITSELF INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. DID BLEND IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA JUST TO MAKE SURE...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS IT WILL
BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS. THE 20Z ANALYSIS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND TN VALLEY. AHEAD OF THESE...WARMER TEMPS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH A GOOD SWATH OF RAIN
STILL MOVING THROUGH THE STATE OF KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN PORTIONS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY ABOUT 14Z TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE
RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINS ITS PROGRESSIVE
CHARACTERISTICS TO IT AS ALL THE MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED IN SO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
BUT A GOOD SHOT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS EVENT WILL LEAVE A BIT HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS THAN ADVERTISED SO BUMPED UP QPF AMOUNTS A TAD.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM EXITS AND ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF STUBBORN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE VORT MAX WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY STOUT AND
WITH A GOOD SHOT OF MOISTURE AS RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THIS
FRONT QUITE QUICKLY AS RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 06Z TUESDAY
NIGHT. A GOOD BIT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH THIS FRONT AND
THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES BUT WITH THE WARM DAYS WE HAVE
HAD...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY AND WILL KEEP A COUPLE
TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AT LEAST BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 12Z WEDNESDAY...THIS IS ALL THE
SNOW EXPECTED RIGHT NOW. DUE TO THE GOOD INSTABILITY AND UP SLOPE
COMPONENT AVAILABLE...WILL DECIDE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT WITH AN SPS
FOR NOW...AS A WSW MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW MORE FORECAST PERIODS.

WITH THE CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL
VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LONG WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE US. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN
WHICH IS DRIVING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OUT AHEAD OF IT. ON TUESDAY NIGHT
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...THEY WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH UPPER ELEVATIONS MAYBE
GETTING TWO TO THREE INCHES. LOOK FOR A LULL ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A CLIPPER WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE BOTTOM EDGE MAY SKIRT THE
FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING A SKIFF OF SNOW.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. MODEL TIMING STARTS TO DIVERGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS IS CAUSING SOME FLUCTUATION BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. WENT AHEAD AND FORECAST FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO DUE
TO THIS FLUCTUATION. AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY STILL LIES AS TO WHETHER
FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF SOME OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
NEAR THE SURFACE...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A GOOD INDICATION OF MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT.
IFR CIGS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED JUST UPSTREAM...AND FROM TIME TO
TIME AT THE TAF SITES.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT IN THE MORNING AS A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AND DECENT MIXING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA BRINGS THE
RETURN OF LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE AIRPORTS AFTER 1Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...AR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 236 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK. EACH OF THESE LOWS PROVIDE A ROUND
OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND EACH ONE WILL ALSO BRING
WAVES OF COLDER AIR. THE FIRST SYSTEM CROSSED THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ONE DAY BREAK ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN SATURDAY. AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
 &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING...THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD...AND WILL
ALL OF THE RAIN TODAY...WILL NOT BE INCLUDING ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IN THE GRIDS.

LATEST HRRR RUN HAS THE PRECIP ENDING AROUND 03Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING IN JUST ABOUT ALL
OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...SO THERE COULD BE SOME SLICK SPOTS
AND BLACK ICE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. FIRST DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL WEAKEN AND HEAD INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY
BRING SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COASTLINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO HAVE A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REORGANIZES
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL
REMAIN OFF THE COAST...HOWEVER THIS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG TO FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AND A WEST COAST RIDGE. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEP OUR WEATHER MILD BUT
UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WHILE MODELS AGREE
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST AND DELIVER MUCH
COLDER AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES. BY
MONDAY...WE`RE LEFT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE NUMERICALS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEEPEN AND DELIVER A FRESH SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IN THE DAILIES...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON THURSDAY THEN PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...AND USHER MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY A FEW LOCATIONS WITH LIFR.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI NIGHT - SAT...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW.
                  NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT PSBL SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
FOR SEAS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING IN
THE WATERS OFF THE MIDCOAST.

LONG TERM...

SAT - SUN...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SUGAR RIVER AT WEST CLAREMONT IS SITTING VERY CLOSE TO ITS
FLOOD STAGE. WILL LIKELY BE LOWERING THE WARNING FOR THIS RIVER
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 938 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK. EACH OF THESE LOWS PROVIDE A ROUND
OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION... AND EACH ONE WILL ALSO BRING
WAVES OF COLDER AIR. THE FIRST SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION TODAY...
AND WILL BRING SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN IN THE HILLS AND
MOUNTAINS... BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER ONE DAY BREAK ON FRIDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.... WHEN IT WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE MAINLY SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
MESONET DATA NOW SHOWING ALL COMMUNITIES ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY WARMED TO THEIR HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD LEVEL
OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COLDEST SECTIONS
OF THE ADVISORY REGION. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TODAY.

LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP OUT OF NH BY
AROUND 02Z. IN THE MEANTIME...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
RAIN NOW SLOWLY ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN SPOTTY LOCATIONS IN THE HILLY AREAS
FROM CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MAINE.
STILL A THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT ICING THIS MORNING IN THESE AREAS.
SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY... HOWEVER... HAS RISEN SAFELY ABOVE
FREEZING AND THUS FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED THERE. THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY ONLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT... BUT IS
FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF REACHING THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SOME MESONET STATIONS ACROSS THIS AREA
ARE IN THE 40S... WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. AS
A RESULT... STILL EXPECT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY MAKE IT MORE
DANGEROUS WHEN DRIVING AS IT MAKES IT MORE LIKELY TO RUN ACROSS
UNEXPECTED AREAS OF ICING. SOME PARTS OF MERRIMACK AND BELKNAP
COUNTY ARE BELOW FREEZING WITH RAIN SPREADING IN THIS MORNING. DID
NOT EXPAND THE ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AS THE POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LOCALIZED AND CAN BE HANDLED
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IF THEY DO NOT RISE BEFORE THE
RAIN ARRIVES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESONET TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PARTS OF
THE ADVISORY EARLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR FROM ALL THE
VALLEYS... CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SOME COOLER AIR BACK IN BEHIND IT... WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE... LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE RAIN/SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S AND
30S BY MORNING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY... WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE 500 MB PATTERN GENERALLY HOLDS ONTO ITS +PNA
CHARACTERISTICS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK... AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WOBBLES AROUND SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TROUGH ACTIVE WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH... AND DEVELOP /MOSTLY/ WEAKER SURFACE LOWS THAT WILL
TRACK QUICKLY UP THE COAST. EACH WAVE WILL ALSO DRAG
INCREMENTALLY COLDER AIR SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE... AND
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL... BUT BY
NO MEANS AS COLD AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS MONTH.

THE FIRST SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS... AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASS EACH
OTHER IN THE NIGHT. COASTAL ZONES CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAIN ON
THURSDAY...WITH SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON... AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS JUST TO THE NORTH.
FRIDAY LOOKS COOLER... BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH SOME
SUNSHINE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND MORE NORTHERN CLOSED LOW ATTEMPT TO INTERACT.
MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT.... WITH THE 00Z EURO SHOWING A PHASING
SYSTEM... AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL... WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHOWS
LESS PHASING AND TOO FAR TO OUR EAST TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SNOW
SHOWERS. ONE FINAL 500MB WAVE FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...
AND USHERS IN A RETURN TO WINTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO THE IFR RANGE THIS MORNING
AS RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MOIST AIR
MOVES OVER THE SNOW PACK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
AND BEGIN TO CLEAR THINGS OUT AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
EXPECT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND SATURDAY... WITH A BREAK ON FRIDAY.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY BE MINIMAL AND INTERMITTENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... THEN EXPECT VFR FRIDAY. MAY SEE JUST ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH MODELS DO
DIFFER... AND COULD SEE A STEADY SNOWFALL... WITH EXTENDED IFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 25 OR 30 KT
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OR
LONGER.

LONG TERM...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS IN SW FLOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT... BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SCA... AND POSSIBLE GALES
IN NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRESSURE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL SOME ICE JAMS OUT THERE... AND LOOKS LIKE SOME ICE MOVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE TODAY... BUT GRADUAL COOLING SHOULD MITIGATE THE ICE
JAM FLOOD THREAT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR
THE SUGAR RIVER AT CLAREMONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 824 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK. EACH OF THESE LOWS PROVIDE A ROUND
OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION... AND EACH ONE WILL ALSO BRING
WAVES OF COLDER AIR. THE FIRST SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION TODAY...
AND WILL BRING SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN IN THE HILLS AND
MOUNTAINS... BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER ONE DAY BREAK ON FRIDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.... WHEN IT WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE MAINLY SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
WARMED TO THEIR HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COLDEST SECTIONS OF THE
ADVISORY REGION. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TODAY.

LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP OUT OF NH BY
AROUND 02Z. IN THE MEANTIME...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
RAIN NOW SLOWLY ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN SPOTTY LOCATIONS IN THE HILLY AREAS
FROM CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MAINE.
STILL A THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT ICING THIS MORNING IN THESE AREAS.
SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY... HOWEVER... HAS RISEN SAFELY ABOVE
FREEZING AND THUS FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED THERE. THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY ONLY.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT... BUT IS
FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF REACHING THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SOME MESONET STATIONS ACROSS THIS AREA
ARE IN THE 40S... WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. AS
A RESULT... STILL EXPECT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY MAKE IT MORE
DANGEROUS WHEN DRIVING AS IT MAKES IT MORE LIKELY TO RUN ACROSS
UNEXPECTED AREAS OF ICING. SOME PARTS OF MERRIMACK AND BELKNAP
COUNTY ARE BELOW FREEZING WITH RAIN SPREADING IN THIS MORNING. DID
NOT EXPAND THE ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AS THE POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LOCALIZED AND CAN BE HANDLED
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IF THEY DO NOT RISE BEFORE THE
RAIN ARRIVES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESONET TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PARTS OF
THE ADVISORY EARLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR FROM ALL THE
VALLEYS... CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SOME COOLER AIR BACK IN BEHIND IT... WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE... LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE RAIN/SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S AND
30S BY MORNING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY... WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE 500 MB PATTERN GENERALLY HOLDS ONTO ITS +PNA
CHARACTERISTICS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK... AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WOBBLES AROUND SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TROUGH ACTIVE WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH... AND DEVELOP /MOSTLY/ WEAKER SURFACE LOWS THAT WILL
TRACK QUICKLY UP THE COAST. EACH WAVE WILL ALSO DRAG
INCREMENTALLY COLDER AIR SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE... AND
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL... BUT BY
NO MEANS AS COLD AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS MONTH.

THE FIRST SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS... AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASS EACH
OTHER IN THE NIGHT. COASTAL ZONES CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAIN ON
THURSDAY...WITH SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON... AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS JUST TO THE NORTH.
FRIDAY LOOKS COOLER... BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH SOME
SUNSHINE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND MORE NORTHERN CLOSED LOW ATTEMPT TO INTERACT.
MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT.... WITH THE 00Z EURO SHOWING A PHASING
SYSTEM... AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL... WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHOWS
LESS PHASING AND TOO FAR TO OUR EAST TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SNOW
SHOWERS. ONE FINAL 500MB WAVE FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...
AND USHERS IN A RETURN TO WINTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO THE IFR RANGE THIS MORNING
AS RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MOIST AIR
MOVES OVER THE SNOW PACK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
AND BEGIN TO CLEAR THINGS OUT AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
EXPECT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND SATURDAY... WITH A BREAK ON FRIDAY.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY BE MINIMAL AND INTERMITTENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... THEN EXPECT VFR FRIDAY. MAY SEE JUST ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH MODELS DO
DIFFER... AND COULD SEE A STEADY SNOWFALL... WITH EXTENDED IFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 25 OR 30 KT
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OR
LONGER.

LONG TERM...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS IN SW FLOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT... BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SCA... AND POSSIBLE GALES
IN NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRESSURE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL SOME ICE JAMS OUT THERE... AND LOOKS LIKE SOME ICE MOVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE TODAY... BUT GRADUAL COOLING SHOULD MITIGATE THE ICE
JAM FLOOD THREAT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR
THE SUGAR RIVER AT CLAREMONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ007>009-012-
     013.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ001>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 449 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER SRN WI WAS MOVING TOWARD SRN LOWER MI. AT THE SFC
CIRCULATION AROUND A 999 MB LOW PRES OVER E CNTRL WI RESULTED IN
STRONG NE WINDS INTO SRN UPPER MI. INCREASING NRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -13C TO -16C RANGE SUPPORTED
LIGHT LES FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NNE WINDS. STRONG 700-500 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND FGEN (FN/FS CONV) NEAR THE SHRTWV PIVOT POINT HAS
PRODUCED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR OVER FAR
SRN UPPER (MNM) MI WHERE 7 INCHES HAD FALLEN BY 20Z. THIS ALSO
ALIGNED WELL WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS...PER IR
LOOP.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE SHRTWV WILL
MOVE INTO LAKE MI THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z-03Z AND DRAG THE BACK END OF
THE SNOW OUT OF THE SRN CWA. UNTIL THEN...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH ALONG WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
30 MPH. EXPECT THE LES IN CONVERGENT NRLY FLOW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY
TO INCREASE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM EDGES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART AFT
06Z...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS CAA DROPS 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-17C. MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR AU TRAIN/EBEN/CHATHAM...PER CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RES MODELS. OVER THE WEST...INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 3K FT SHOULD
LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN AN INCH.

WED....MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN LAKES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIVING TOWARD SRN MANITOBA AND NRN MN. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE FROM MN INTO NW ONTARIO WILL BUILD TOWARD THE SRN
GREAT LAKES AS A DEEP CLIPPER LOW MOVES TO NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG.
THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -16C THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LAKE INSTABILITY
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LINGERING LAKE EFFECT. BUT WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
WINDS TO QUICKLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY. THE BACKING WINDS...ALONG
WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT OVER
THE WEST AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

RIDGE WEST...TROUGH EAST. THE PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FOR AN OVERVIEW OF WHAT WILL BE HAPPENING ALOFT...THE 500MB LOW OVER
N MANITOBA AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL SWEEP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE W
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT THE LOW WILL
SLOW DOWN QUITE A BIT...AND REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE THE LINGERING TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND LAKE HURON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP NNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MONDAY.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...THE SFC LOW NEAR THE S MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER
JUST PRIOR TO 06Z THURSDAY SHOULD SHIFT SE INTO S CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR/AND THE W HALF OF UPPER MI BY 18Z. S-SSW WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 10-20KT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
SWEEP IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S...THANKS TO THE
MID AFTERNOON LOW PASSAGE ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE -5
TO -7F RANGE. EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO EXIT FAR E UPPER MI THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE LOW...LOOK FOR A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK BETWEEN THE STRONG W-SSW WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN THE N-NNW WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 15F COOLER OVER W AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI...WHILE ONLY A COULD DEGREES COOLER E.

ALTHOUGH FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BE PRETTY FROZEN...THERE IS LIKELY
PLENTY OF RELATIVELY WARM OPEN WATER STILL AVAILABLE N OF THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS TO ALLOW THE MAINLY N FLOW OF COLD AIR TO PRODUCE
MODERATE LES FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE W-NW OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING AS
WAA TAKES HOLD AND 850MB TEMPS THAT WERE ON THE ORDER OF -14 TO -17C
QUICKLY JUMP UP TO AROUND -10C. LES WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST NEAR
AND E OF MUNISING INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW
LONG THE FETCH REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THIS AREA...AS THE 12Z ECMWF IS
GOING WITH A MORE W FLOW NEAR THE SFC...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST
CHANCE OF LES ONLY RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE E SATURDAY...IF NOT OFF
SHORE.

A SIZABLE RIDGE EXTENDING UP FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRIEFLY MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
RIDGE...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE
CANADIAN MODEL.

OTHERWISE PAST SUNDAY EVENING WE GET BACK INTO THE PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AGAIN ALOFT...THANKS TO THE MAIN 500MB LOW SLIDING FROM N
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...ACROSS JAMES BAY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MAIN LOW RETREATS BACK
N...A MODERATED PIECE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO DIVE IN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK /AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO THE 12Z ECMWF/. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT N-NNW FLOW...HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO LIKELY AND DEFINITE CATEGORIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX AND KIWD BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO IFR AT KSAW BY MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
AS THERE IS MORE OF A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

NORTH WINDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW
PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION WILL PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING LAKE WINNIPEG LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL THEN SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY.
SW GALES OF 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
N-NW GALES OF 35 KTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THE LOW. THE LOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY...WHILE KEEPING A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ011.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ012.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LSZ248>251-265>267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
     245-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 359 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER SRN WI WAS MOVING TOWARD SRN LOWER MI. AT THE SFC
CIRCULATION AROUND A 999 MB LOW PRES OVER E CNTRL WI RESULTED IN
STRONG NE WINDS INTO SRN UPPER MI. INCREASING NRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -13C TO -16C RANGE SUPPORTED
LIGHT LES FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NNE WINDS. STRONG 700-500 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND FGEN (FN/FS CONV) NEAR THE SHRTWV PIVOT POINT HAS
PRODUCED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR OVER FAR
SRN UPPER (MNM) MI WHERE 7 INCHES HAD FALLEN BY 20Z. THIS ALSO
ALIGNED WELL WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS...PER IR
LOOP.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE SHRTWV WILL
MOVE INTO LAKE MI THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z-03Z AND DRAG THE BACK END OF
THE SNOW OUT OF THE SRN CWA. UNTIL THEN...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH ALONG WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
30 MPH. EXPECT THE LES IN CONVERGENT NRLY FLOW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY
TO INCREASE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM EDGES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART AFT
06Z...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS CAA DROPS 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-17C. MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR AU TRAIN/EBEN/CHATHAM...PER CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RES MODELS. OVER THE WEST...INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 3K FT SHOULD
LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN AN INCH.

WED....MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN LAKES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIVING TOWARD SRN MANITOBA AND NRN MN. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE FROM MN INTO NW ONTARIO WILL BUILD TOWARD THE SRN
GREAT LAKES AS A DEEP CLIPPER LOW MOVES TO NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG.
THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -16C THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LAKE INSTABILITY
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LINGERING LAKE EFFECT. BUT WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
WINDS TO QUICKLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY. THE BACKING WINDS...ALONG
WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT OVER
THE WEST AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
LIKELY EVEN BEYOND THAT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE AXIS
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE CONUS AND CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUND THE RIDGE
AND DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND REINFORCE THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE THE MODELS
(GEM/GFS/ECMWF) ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES...IT IS THE MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT DIFFER AND LEAD TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND DEPART WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON AT 12Z WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL STRETCH FROM COLORADO THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -16C THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LAKE INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LINGERING LAKE EFFECT. BUT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO QUICKLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY. THESE BACKING WINDS...ALONG
WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT OVER
THE WEST AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE SHORTWAVE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
IS ROUNDING THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY
DIVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INITIAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROAD AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY
MORNING. MODEL HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER ON THE SNOWFALL WITH THIS
INITIAL SURGE AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST (GENERAL 1-2
INCHES). IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A QUICK 3-6HR PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW THAT MOVES THROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY WAVE AND LOW
ARRIVING MID TO LATE DAY THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THAT SNOW...EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (20-30KTS) TO PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. WITH THE LATEST TRENDS FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...DON/T THINK AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIMIT
SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT IT SHOULD QUICKLY MOISTEN
AFTER 06-09Z WHEN THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL
WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS EXPECT THE
ENHANCEMENT TO BE FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED
YESTERDAY. DAY SHIFT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THAT IDEA
WITH IT STAYING EAST OF A LINE FROM MANISTIQUE TO TAHQUAMENON
FALLS. HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES IN THAT AREA AND
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WOULD THINK AN ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED
IN THE FUTURE. EXPECT THE ENHANCEMENT TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE HOW THE LOW DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA EVOLVES. 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
STARTED YESTERDAY WITH A WEAKER AND MORE SOUTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF MID LEVEL
(850/700MB) POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS SHOWING THE BEST ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY
WAVE DIVES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THIS IS
LIKELY LEADING TO THE WEAKENING TREND TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. VERY LEERY ON GETTING TOO
SPECIFIC ON THE LOW TRACK/INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER FEATURES
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD...LARGELY DUE TO THE
STRUGGLE SEEN WITH THE LOW TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP FOR THE LOW
TODAY. WAS HOPING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD HELP...BUT THEY ALL SEEM TO
SIDE WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. ALSO...SEEING
SIGNIFICANT JUMPS WITH TODAY/S SYSTEM LEADS TO MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR THE EXACT DETAILS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THESE
LOW LEVEL FEATURES SINCE THE COLD AIR SURGING IN WILL LEAD TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND THEN LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...WILL OPT TO TREND THE FORECAST
TOWARDS A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET AND AWAY FROM THE
STRONGER GFS AND FARTHER NORTH NAM. THIS SOLUTION WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY (AND POTENTIALLY THE ENTIRE DAY)...BEFORE THE
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND REALLY DEVELOPS THE LAKE ENHANCED AND THEN
EFFECT SNOW. THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS PROBABLY
THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE THE DEFINITE
POPS IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS. AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
INTENSITY/POSITION OF THE LOW (WHICH LOOKS TO SLOW OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING) AND THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THUS...WITH THE FAVORABLE LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT
CONDITIONS...HAVE TRENDED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO BE IN THE 3-6IN
RANGE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WHEN FACTORING IN SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WITH THE WINDS (20-35MPH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR)...THINK AT LEAST ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. WITH THE WEAKER
LOW PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHTER WINDS...WILL TREND TOWARDS
LESS HARSH WORDING.

PAST THIS SYSTEM...APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER COUPLE
SHORTWAVES/CLIPPERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. ONE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER
BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS VARY ON 850MB TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH A TREND TOWARDS WARMER VALUES OVER THE LAST 2-4
RUNS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...FOLLOWED A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS WITH SOME INCREASE IN POPS WHEN LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED. THE
SECOND CLIPPER WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY AND LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SHOULD SEE
A WEAK RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX AND KIWD BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO IFR AT KSAW BY MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
AS THERE IS MORE OF A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

NORTH WINDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW
PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION WILL PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING LAKE WINNIPEG LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL THEN SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY.
SW GALES OF 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
N-NW GALES OF 35 KTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THE LOW. THE LOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY...WHILE KEEPING A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ011.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ012.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 118 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

A BURST OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TOWARD MID DAY.
THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR NORTH OF I-96.  THIS SNOW SHOULD
DIMINISH ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE IT
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.  THEN BY TONIGHT MORE
SNOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.  THIS SNOW WILL
FINALLY DIMINISH TOWARD MID DAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK
BY TONIGHT CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

WHERE THE SNOW IS THE MOST PERSISTENT...MAINLY NORTH OF A MUSKEGON
TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY
NOON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY....WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

WILL ADD OTTAWA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN TO THE ADVISORY FOR THE
WRAPAROUND SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT. WILL RUN IT FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WILL
BE TWEAKING SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN FOR TODAY AS SFC LOW IS TRACKING TOO
FAR NORTH TO GIVE FORECAST AREA AS MUCH SNOW AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A LULL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

I DID SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OUR SHORT TERM GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE
START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS...PLUS THE 06Z NAM12 SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL NOT GET
STARTED IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM. GIVEN
THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAT WOULD MAKE SENSE TOO. ALSO
USING THE TIMING TOOL IT ALSO SUGGESTS EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
LAKE SHORE COUNTIES.

THE PRIMARY BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES... IN THE ADVISORY AREA... COULD
SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE 3 INCH AMOUNTS BEING NORTH OF ROUTE 10.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES.  FIRST WILL
DELAY THE START TIME UNTIL 16Z.  THEN WILL ALSO ADD MUSKEGON COUNTY
TO THE ADVISORY.

VERY WRAPPED UP CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WED.  MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK TO THE SURFACE LOW...GENERALLY JUST
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10.  THIS WILL KEEP THE STEADIEST SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER WHERE THE ADVISORY IS PRESENTLY.  EXPECT A BURST OF
WARM ADVECTION SNOW ARRIVING AROUND 16Z...WHEN THE ADVISORY WILL GO
INTO AFFECT.  THIS SHOULD IMPACT AREAS NW OF A HOLLAND TO CLARE LINE
WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW...WITH AREAS SE SEEING A MORE SHORT LIVED
BURST.

THEN TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A DRY SLOT PUNCH INTO THE
CWA.  EXPECT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE A LULL
IN THE SNOWFALL.  IT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ADVISORY REGION...BUT
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT.

THEN INTO MID/LATE EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO WED MORNING...THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DRAG ACROSS ALL THE CWA WITH A RETURN TO
STEADIER SNOWS.  HAVE ADDED MUSKEGON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY FOR
MAINLY A STEADIER SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH A WSW FLOW.  THE FLOW PIVOTS TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL SPRAY ALL THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

ACCUMS BY NOON WED SHOULD BE IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE FOR AREAS IN
THE ADVISORY...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE.

WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT.  AS
WE GET INTO THE COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING.  WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY IN AREA IF THIS
BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY THEN IT MAY BE QUIET INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THEN OVER THE PAST
WEEKEND BUT NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL. SOME
WARMING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG.

WE CURRENTLY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT OVER
NORTHERN RUSSIA (SIBERIA)... NEAR 10MB. THIS MATTERS BECAUSE THE
RESULT OF THIS IS TYPICALLY A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX. YOU MAY
REMEMBER WE SAW THIS HAPPEN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY TOO.
SIMILARLY THE POLAR VORTEX SPLIT THEN TOO. SINCE THE MODELS DO IN
FACT SHOW THIS HAPPENING ONCE AGAIN AND ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT IT WOULD SEEM THIS EVENT WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

THE RESULT OF THE SPLITTING OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL BE A SOUTHWARD
DISPLACEMENT PART OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTH AMERICA. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW THIS. THE ONLY QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THIS HAPPENS.
THE PART OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTH AMERICA DROPS SOUTH FROM
ARCTIC OCEAN SHORES OF CANADA TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY.
CLEARLY THIS WILL BRING THE VERY COLD AIR MUCH CLOSER TO MICHIGAN
THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST FOUR DAYS.

WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE ECMWF
DRIVES A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
IN SOUTHERN ALASKA SOUTH OF CHICAGO BY FRIDAY MORNING. IT DIGS IT SO
STRONGLY IT CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HAS CONTINUITY IN THE ECMWF FOR AT LEAST THE
PAST 3 RUNS BUT THE 14TH/00Z VERSION OF THIS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE OTHERS. THE CANADIAN GEM IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TOO. IN ANY
EVENT THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN HOW COLD WE GET AND HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
TILL THURSDAY MORNING...THEN THAT ECMWF MORE STRONGLY DIGGING UPPER
WAVE BRINGS COLDER AIR SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY THAN IS
SHOWN BUT THE GFS. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER THAN
THE GFS IN TERMS OF MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE WAY THE
CANADIAN GEM IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS ON THIS
FEATURE.

THE RESULT OF ALL THIS IS RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THAT SHOULD QUIET DOWN ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT WOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT
A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT SETS UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING SNOW TO THE
LAKE SHORE COUNTIES NORTH OF MKG BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT IS HARD TO TOTALLY SAY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT THERE WOULD BE A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW ON THURSDAY AND IT
WOULD AMOUNT TO MORE SNOW COVERING A LARGELY AREA OF OUR CWA. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT WE DO NOT GET MUCH SNOW ANYWHERE IN OR CWA AS MOST OF
THE DYNAMICS WOULD BE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.

SINCE THE GFS DOES NOT DIG THE LEAD SYSTEM AS MUCH...TRAILING WAVE
ENERGY DEVELOPS A SYSTEM ON SATURDAY THAT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT HAVE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND THE
NEXT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL FAVOR A DRY PERIOD
FROM SAT INTO MONDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WOULD
BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THAT WOULD BRING DOWN VERY COLD AIR
BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

BAND OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM JUST WEST OF KMKG TO NEAR CHICAGO IS
POISED TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
KMKG SHOULD SEE IT START AROUND 18Z...WITH IT SPREADING EAST FROM
THERE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A BURST OF ABOUT 2 HRS WORTH OF IFR AND
LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW AT EACH SITE BEFORE IT DIMINISHES
GREATLY AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN. EACH SITE WILL BE LEFT WITH SOME
FLURRIES...DZ...OR FZDZ DEPENDING ON THE SFC TEMP IN SOME REDUCED
VSBYS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SW TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OR
SO.

SNOW WILL MOVE BACK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR WILL BE LIKELY AT MOST
WRN LOCATIONS AS THE SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA DUE TO SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. INLAND LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER CHC AT
REMAINING MVFR BUT HAVE A CHANCE AT IFR. SNOW SHOULD THEN DIMINISH
ON WED MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY.  THEN RAMPED UP TO A
GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE KALAMAZOO RIVER AT NEW
RICHMOND...THE SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT...AND THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
AT SCOTTVILLE. ALL THESE RIVERS ARE ABOVE BANKFULL BUT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RIVERS
IS THE MAIN IMPACT.

ELSEWHERE...RISES CONTINUE ON MANY LARGE AND SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO IMMEDIATE FLOODING RISKS ARE NOTED. ICE COVERAGE ON
THE GRAND AT ROBINSON TWP IS THINNING AND CURRENTLY STABLE (NOT
MOVING IN CHUNKS). THIS IS GOOD NEWS AND REDUCES THE THREAT FOR ICE
JAMS. NO ABRUPT RISES ARE SHOWN ON AREA HYDROGRAPHS...ANOTHER
INDICATOR THAT ICE IS BEHAVING.

THE OUTLOOK FOR RIVERS THIS WEEK IS FOR THEM TO BE CRESTING (IF THEY
HAVEN`T ALREADY) AND THEN FALLING BACK DOWN. A REFORMATION OF ICE IS
LIKELY ON RIVERS THAT ONLY HAD SMALL RISES FROM THE RECENT RAINS AND
SNOW MELT. MAXIMUM ICE DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
ICE DEVELOPMENT.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES (VIA NOHRSC ANALYSIS AND IN-SITU
MEASUREMENTS) ARE QUITE HIGH ACROSS SW LOWER MI...GENERALLY BETWEEN
1 AND 4 INCHES. THESE VALUES WILL ONLY BE GOING UP THIS WEEK AS WE
ADD FRESH SNOW TO A VERY DENSE AND CRUSTY SNOW PACK. SOMETHING TO BE
THINKING ABOUT WHENEVER THE NEXT THAW COMES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ056-064-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...OSTUNO





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1247 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

A BURST OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TOWARD MID DAY.
THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR NORTH OF I-96.  THIS SNOW SHOULD
DIMINISH ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE IT
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.  THEN BY TONIGHT MORE
SNOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.  THIS SNOW WILL
FINALLY DIMINISH TOWARD MID DAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK
BY TONIGHT CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

WHERE THE SNOW IS THE MOST PERSISTENT...MAINLY NORTH OF A MUSKEGON
TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE...5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY
NOON WEDNESDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE
SHOULD SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

I DID SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OUR SHORT TERM GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE
START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS...PLUS THE 06Z NAM12 SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL NOT GET
STARTED IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM. GIVEN
THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAT WOULD MAKE SENSE TOO. ALSO
USING THE TIMING TOOL IT ALSO SUGGESTS EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
LAKE SHORE COUNTIES.

THE PRIMARY BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES... IN THE ADVISORY AREA... COULD
SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE 3 INCH AMOUNTS BEING NORTH OF ROUTE 10.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES.  FIRST WILL
DELAY THE START TIME UNTIL 16Z.  THEN WILL ALSO ADD MUSKEGON COUNTY
TO THE ADVISORY.

VERY WRAPPED UP CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WED.  MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK TO THE SURFACE LOW...GENERALLY JUST
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10.  THIS WILL KEEP THE STEADIEST SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER WHERE THE ADVISORY IS PRESENTLY.  EXPECT A BURST OF
WARM ADVECTION SNOW ARRIVING AROUND 16Z...WHEN THE ADVISORY WILL GO
INTO AFFECT.  THIS SHOULD IMPACT AREAS NW OF A HOLLAND TO CLARE LINE
WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW...WITH AREAS SE SEEING A MORE SHORT LIVED
BURST.

THEN TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A DRY SLOT PUNCH INTO THE
CWA.  EXPECT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE A LULL
IN THE SNOWFALL.  IT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ADVISORY REGION...BUT
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT.

THEN INTO MID/LATE EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO WED MORNING...THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DRAG ACROSS ALL THE CWA WITH A RETURN TO
STEADIER SNOWS.  HAVE ADDED MUSKEGON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY FOR
MAINLY A STEADIER SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH A WSW FLOW.  THE FLOW PIVOTS TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL SPRAY ALL THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

ACCUMS BY NOON WED SHOULD BE IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE FOR AREAS IN
THE ADVISORY...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE.

WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT.  AS
WE GET INTO THE COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING.  WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY IN AREA IF THIS
BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY THEN IT MAY BE QUIET INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THEN OVER THE PAST
WEEKEND BUT NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL. SOME
WARMING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG.

WE CURRENTLY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT OVER
NORTHERN RUSSIA (SIBERIA)... NEAR 10MB. THIS MATTERS BECAUSE THE
RESULT OF THIS IS TYPICALLY A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX. YOU MAY
REMEMBER WE SAW THIS HAPPEN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY TOO.
SIMILARLY THE POLAR VORTEX SPLIT THEN TOO. SINCE THE MODELS DO IN
FACT SHOW THIS HAPPENING ONCE AGAIN AND ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT IT WOULD SEEM THIS EVENT WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

THE RESULT OF THE SPLITTING OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL BE A SOUTHWARD
DISPLACEMENT PART OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTH AMERICA. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW THIS. THE ONLY QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THIS HAPPENS.
THE PART OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTH AMERICA DROPS SOUTH FROM
ARCTIC OCEAN SHORES OF CANADA TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY.
CLEARLY THIS WILL BRING THE VERY COLD AIR MUCH CLOSER TO MICHIGAN
THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST FOUR DAYS.

WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE ECMWF
DRIVES A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
IN SOUTHERN ALASKA SOUTH OF CHICAGO BY FRIDAY MORNING. IT DIGS IT SO
STRONGLY IT CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HAS CONTINUITY IN THE ECMWF FOR AT LEAST THE
PAST 3 RUNS BUT THE 14TH/00Z VERSION OF THIS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE OTHERS. THE CANADIAN GEM IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TOO. IN ANY
EVENT THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN HOW COLD WE GET AND HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
TILL THURSDAY MORNING...THEN THAT ECMWF MORE STRONGLY DIGGING UPPER
WAVE BRINGS COLDER AIR SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY THAN IS
SHOWN BUT THE GFS. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER THAN
THE GFS IN TERMS OF MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE WAY THE
CANADIAN GEM IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS ON THIS
FEATURE.

THE RESULT OF ALL THIS IS RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THAT SHOULD QUIET DOWN ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT WOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT
A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT SETS UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING SNOW TO THE
LAKE SHORE COUNTIES NORTH OF MKG BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT IS HARD TO TOTALLY SAY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT THERE WOULD BE A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW ON THURSDAY AND IT
WOULD AMOUNT TO MORE SNOW COVERING A LARGELY AREA OF OUR CWA. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT WE DO NOT GET MUCH SNOW ANYWHERE IN OR CWA AS MOST OF
THE DYNAMICS WOULD BE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.

SINCE THE GFS DOES NOT DIG THE LEAD SYSTEM AS MUCH...TRAILING WAVE
ENERGY DEVELOPS A SYSTEM ON SATURDAY THAT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT HAVE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND THE
NEXT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL FAVOR A DRY PERIOD
FROM SAT INTO MONDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WOULD
BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THAT WOULD BRING DOWN VERY COLD AIR
BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

BAND OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM JUST WEST OF KMKG TO NEAR CHICAGO IS
POISED TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
KMKG SHOULD SEE IT START AROUND 18Z...WITH IT SPREADING EAST FROM
THERE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A BURST OF ABOUT 2 HRS WORTH OF IFR AND
LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW AT EACH SITE BEFORE IT DIMINISHES
GREATLY AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN. EACH SITE WILL BE LEFT WITH SOME
FLURRIES...DZ...OR FZDZ DEPENDING ON THE SFC TEMP IN SOME REDUCED
VSBYS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SW TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OR
SO.

SNOW WILL MOVE BACK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR WILL BE LIKELY AT MOST
WRN LOCATIONS AS THE SNOW MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA DUE TO SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. INLAND LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER CHC AT
REMAINING MVFR BUT HAVE A CHANCE AT IFR. SNOW SHOULD THEN DIMINISH
ON WED MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY.  THEN RAMPED UP TO A
GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE KALAMAZOO RIVER AT NEW
RICHMOND...THE SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT...AND THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
AT SCOTTVILLE. ALL THESE RIVERS ARE ABOVE BANKFULL BUT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RIVERS
IS THE MAIN IMPACT.

ELSEWHERE...RISES CONTINUE ON MANY LARGE AND SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO IMMEDIATE FLOODING RISKS ARE NOTED. ICE COVERAGE ON
THE GRAND AT ROBINSON TWP IS THINNING AND CURRENTLY STABLE (NOT
MOVING IN CHUNKS). THIS IS GOOD NEWS AND REDUCES THE THREAT FOR ICE
JAMS. NO ABRUPT RISES ARE SHOWN ON AREA HYDROGRAPHS...ANOTHER
INDICATOR THAT ICE IS BEHAVING.

THE OUTLOOK FOR RIVERS THIS WEEK IS FOR THEM TO BE CRESTING (IF THEY
HAVEN`T ALREADY) AND THEN FALLING BACK DOWN. A REFORMATION OF ICE IS
LIKELY ON RIVERS THAT ONLY HAD SMALL RISES FROM THE RECENT RAINS AND
SNOW MELT. MAXIMUM ICE DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
ICE DEVELOPMENT.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES (VIA NOHRSC ANALYSIS AND IN-SITU
MEASUREMENTS) ARE QUITE HIGH ACROSS SW LOWER MI...GENERALLY BETWEEN
1 AND 4 INCHES. THESE VALUES WILL ONLY BE GOING UP THIS WEEK AS WE
ADD FRESH SNOW TO A VERY DENSE AND CRUSTY SNOW PACK. SOMETHING TO BE
THINKING ABOUT WHENEVER THE NEXT THAW COMES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...OSTUNO







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 745 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

A BURST OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TOWARD MID DAY.
THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR NORTH OF I-96.  THIS SNOW SHOULD
DIMINISH ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE IT
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.  THEN BY TONIGHT MORE
SNOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.  THIS SNOW WILL
FINALLY DIMINISH TOWARD MID DAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK
BY TONIGHT CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

WHERE THE SNOW IS THE MOST PERSISTENT...MAINLY NORTH OF A MUSKEGON
TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE...5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY
NOON WEDNESDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE
SHOULD SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

I DID SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OUR SHORT TERM GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE
START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS...PLUS THE 06Z NAM12 SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL NOT GET
STARTED IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM. GIVEN
THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAT WOULD MAKE SENSE TOO. ALSO
USING THE TIMING TOOL IT ALSO SUGGESTS EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
LAKE SHORE COUNTIES.

THE PRIMARY BAND OF SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES... IN THE ADVISORY AREA... COULD
SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE 3 INCH AMOUNTS BEING NORTH OF ROUTE 10.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES.  FIRST WILL
DELAY THE START TIME UNTIL 16Z.  THEN WILL ALSO ADD MUSKEGON COUNTY
TO THE ADVISORY.

VERY WRAPPED UP CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WED.  MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK TO THE SURFACE LOW...GENERALLY JUST
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10.  THIS WILL KEEP THE STEADIEST SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER WHERE THE ADVISORY IS PRESENTLY.  EXPECT A BURST OF
WARM ADVECTION SNOW ARRIVING AROUND 16Z...WHEN THE ADVISORY WILL GO
INTO AFFECT.  THIS SHOULD IMPACT AREAS NW OF A HOLLAND TO CLARE LINE
WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW...WITH AREAS SE SEEING A MORE SHORT LIVED
BURST.

THEN TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A DRY SLOT PUNCH INTO THE
CWA.  EXPECT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE A LULL
IN THE SNOWFALL.  IT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ADVISORY REGION...BUT
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT.

THEN INTO MID/LATE EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO WED MORNING...THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DRAG ACROSS ALL THE CWA WITH A RETURN TO
STEADIER SNOWS.  HAVE ADDED MUSKEGON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY FOR
MAINLY A STEADIER SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH A WSW FLOW.  THE FLOW PIVOTS TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL SPRAY ALL THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

ACCUMS BY NOON WED SHOULD BE IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE FOR AREAS IN
THE ADVISORY...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES ELSEWHERE.

WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT.  AS
WE GET INTO THE COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING.  WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY IN AREA IF THIS
BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY THEN IT MAY BE QUIET INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THEN OVER THE PAST
WEEKEND BUT NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL. SOME
WARMING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG.

WE CURRENTLY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT OVER
NORTHERN RUSSIA (SIBERIA)... NEAR 10MB. THIS MATTERS BECAUSE THE
RESULT OF THIS IS TYPICALLY A SPLIT IN THE POLAR VORTEX. YOU MAY
REMEMBER WE SAW THIS HAPPEN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY TOO.
SIMILARLY THE POLAR VORTEX SPLIT THEN TOO. SINCE THE MODELS DO IN
FACT SHOW THIS HAPPENING ONCE AGAIN AND ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT IT WOULD SEEM THIS EVENT WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

THE RESULT OF THE SPLITTING OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL BE A SOUTHWARD
DISPLACEMENT PART OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTH AMERICA. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW THIS. THE ONLY QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT THIS HAPPENS.
THE PART OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTH AMERICA DROPS SOUTH FROM
ARCTIC OCEAN SHORES OF CANADA TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY.
CLEARLY THIS WILL BRING THE VERY COLD AIR MUCH CLOSER TO MICHIGAN
THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST FOUR DAYS.

WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE ECMWF
DRIVES A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
IN SOUTHERN ALASKA SOUTH OF CHICAGO BY FRIDAY MORNING. IT DIGS IT SO
STRONGLY IT CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HAS CONTINUITY IN THE ECMWF FOR AT LEAST THE
PAST 3 RUNS BUT THE 14TH/00Z VERSION OF THIS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE OTHERS. THE CANADIAN GEM IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TOO. IN ANY
EVENT THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN HOW COLD WE GET AND HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
TILL THURSDAY MORNING...THEN THAT ECMWF MORE STRONGLY DIGGING UPPER
WAVE BRINGS COLDER AIR SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY THAN IS
SHOWN BUT THE GFS. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER THAN
THE GFS IN TERMS OF MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE WAY THE
CANADIAN GEM IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS ON THIS
FEATURE.

THE RESULT OF ALL THIS IS RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THAT SHOULD QUIET DOWN ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT WOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT
A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT SETS UP AND THIS SHOULD BRING SNOW TO THE
LAKE SHORE COUNTIES NORTH OF MKG BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT IS HARD TO TOTALLY SAY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT THERE WOULD BE A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW ON THURSDAY AND IT
WOULD AMOUNT TO MORE SNOW COVERING A LARGELY AREA OF OUR CWA. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT WE DO NOT GET MUCH SNOW ANYWHERE IN OR CWA AS MOST OF
THE DYNAMICS WOULD BE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.

SINCE THE GFS DOES NOT DIG THE LEAD SYSTEM AS MUCH...TRAILING WAVE
ENERGY DEVELOPS A SYSTEM ON SATURDAY THAT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT HAVE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND THE
NEXT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL FAVOR A DRY PERIOD
FROM SAT INTO MONDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WOULD
BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THAT WOULD BRING DOWN VERY COLD AIR
BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES...LAN
HAS MVFR IN HAZE. AS THE COMPACT STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
HEADS EAST SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING IT HAS A BAND OF SNOW ABOUT 3 HOURS WIDE IN FRONT OF IT.
THIS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE TAF SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TOO.

ONCE THAT BAND MOVES THROUGH I EXPECT THE DRY SLOT TO END THE SNOW
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THAT IS GOING ON EXPECT MVFR CIGS. AFTER
06Z THE SNOW BAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WITH
GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY.  THEN RAMPED UP TO A
GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE KALAMAZOO RIVER AT NEW
RICHMOND...THE SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT...AND THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
AT SCOTTVILLE. ALL THESE RIVERS ARE ABOVE BANKFULL BUT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RIVERS
IS THE MAIN IMPACT.

ELSEWHERE...RISES CONTINUE ON MANY LARGE AND SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO IMMEDIATE FLOODING RISKS ARE NOTED. ICE COVERAGE ON
THE GRAND AT ROBINSON TWP IS THINNING AND CURRENTLY STABLE (NOT
MOVING IN CHUNKS). THIS IS GOOD NEWS AND REDUCES THE THREAT FOR ICE
JAMS. NO ABRUPT RISES ARE SHOWN ON AREA HYDROGRAPHS...ANOTHER
INDICATOR THAT ICE IS BEHAVING.

THE OUTLOOK FOR RIVERS THIS WEEK IS FOR THEM TO BE CRESTING (IF THEY
HAVEN`T ALREADY) AND THEN FALLING BACK DOWN. A REFORMATION OF ICE IS
LIKELY ON RIVERS THAT ONLY HAD SMALL RISES FROM THE RECENT RAINS AND
SNOW MELT. MAXIMUM ICE DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
ICE DEVELOPMENT.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES (VIA NOHRSC ANALYSIS AND IN-SITU
MEASUREMENTS) ARE QUITE HIGH ACROSS SW LOWER MI...GENERALLY BETWEEN
1 AND 4 INCHES. THESE VALUES WILL ONLY BE GOING UP THIS WEEK AS WE
ADD FRESH SNOW TO A VERY DENSE AND CRUSTY SNOW PACK. SOMETHING TO BE
THINKING ABOUT WHENEVER THE NEXT THAW COMES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...OSTUNO







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 446 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. A CLIPPER SHRTWV INTO NRN MONTANA WAS MOVING SE INTO
THE DAKOTAS.  AT THE SFC...COLDER AIR WAS MOVING INTO UPPER MI
BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO THROUGH ERN UPPER MI
INTO WRN LOWER MI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTH
END OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN MN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY TO AROUND
-13C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM NE
MN...LITTLE/NO LES HAS DEVELOPED INTO NW UPPER MI THROUGH 20Z.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CAA DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LES FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WRLY FLOW THIS
EVENING. AS WINDS VEER N TO NW OVERNIGHT...ANY LES WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REST OF WRN UPPETHE R MI AND FOR LOCATIONS FROM P53
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
ONLY TO 4K FT WILL LIMIT INTENSITY AND KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
AN INCH.

TUESDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING TO NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE MI BY 00Z/WED. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND STRONGEST 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND MID LEVEL
FGEN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GRAZE THE SRN PORTION OF THE
CWA NEAR MNM WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS TO AROUND 0.15
INCH WITH SLR VALUES NEAR 18/1 WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AMOUNTS TO NEAR 3
INCHES. CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS STILL LIMITED SINCE THE
AREA IS ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SIGNIFCANT QPF FCST. LES INTO THE N
CNTRL CWA NEAR P53 IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHERE THE CONVERGENT
NRLY FLOW IS FOCUSED. OVER THE WEST...THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
MORE ACYC FLOW WILL ALSO REDUCE LES CHANCES/AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
LIKELY EVEN BEYOND THAT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE AXIS
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE CONUS AND CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUND THE RIDGE
AND DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND REINFORCE THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE THE MODELS
(GEM/GFS/ECMWF) ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES...IT IS THE MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT DIFFER AND LEAD TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND DEPART WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON AT 12Z WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL STRETCH FROM COLORADO THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -16C THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LAKE INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LINGERING LAKE EFFECT. BUT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO QUICKLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY. THESE BACKING WINDS...ALONG
WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT OVER
THE WEST AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE SHORTWAVE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
IS ROUNDING THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY
DIVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INITIAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROAD AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY
MORNING. MODEL HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER ON THE SNOWFALL WITH THIS
INITIAL SURGE AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST (GENERAL 1-2
INCHES). IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A QUICK 3-6HR PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW THAT MOVES THROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY WAVE AND LOW
ARRIVING MID TO LATE DAY THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THAT SNOW...EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (20-30KTS) TO PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. WITH THE LATEST TRENDS FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...DON/T THINK AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIMIT
SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT IT SHOULD QUICKLY MOISTEN
AFTER 06-09Z WHEN THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL
WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS EXPECT THE
ENHANCEMENT TO BE FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED
YESTERDAY. DAY SHIFT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THAT IDEA
WITH IT STAYING EAST OF A LINE FROM MANISTIQUE TO TAHQUAMENON
FALLS. HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES IN THAT AREA AND
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WOULD THINK AN ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED
IN THE FUTURE. EXPECT THE ENHANCEMENT TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE HOW THE LOW DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA EVOLVES. 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
STARTED YESTERDAY WITH A WEAKER AND MORE SOUTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF MID LEVEL
(850/700MB) POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS SHOWING THE BEST ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY
WAVE DIVES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THIS IS
LIKELY LEADING TO THE WEAKENING TREND TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. VERY LEERY ON GETTING TOO
SPECIFIC ON THE LOW TRACK/INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER FEATURES
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD...LARGELY DUE TO THE
STRUGGLE SEEN WITH THE LOW TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP FOR THE LOW
TODAY. WAS HOPING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD HELP...BUT THEY ALL SEEM TO
SIDE WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. ALSO...SEEING
SIGNIFICANT JUMPS WITH TODAY/S SYSTEM LEADS TO MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR THE EXACT DETAILS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THESE
LOW LEVEL FEATURES SINCE THE COLD AIR SURGING IN WILL LEAD TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND THEN LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...WILL OPT TO TREND THE FORECAST
TOWARDS A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET AND AWAY FROM THE
STRONGER GFS AND FARTHER NORTH NAM. THIS SOLUTION WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY (AND POTENTIALLY THE ENTIRE DAY)...BEFORE THE
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND REALLY DEVELOPS THE LAKE ENHANCED AND THEN
EFFECT SNOW. THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS PROBABLY
THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE THE DEFINITE
POPS IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS. AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
INTENSITY/POSITION OF THE LOW (WHICH LOOKS TO SLOW OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING) AND THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THUS...WITH THE FAVORABLE LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT
CONDITIONS...HAVE TRENDED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO BE IN THE 3-6IN
RANGE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WHEN FACTORING IN SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WITH THE WINDS (20-35MPH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR)...THINK AT LEAST ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. WITH THE WEAKER
LOW PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHTER WINDS...WILL TREND TOWARDS
LESS HARSH WORDING.

PAST THIS SYSTEM...APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER COUPLE
SHORTWAVES/CLIPPERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. ONE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER
BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS VARY ON 850MB TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH A TREND TOWARDS WARMER VALUES OVER THE LAST 2-4
RUNS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...FOLLOWED A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS WITH SOME INCREASE IN POPS WHEN LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED. THE
SECOND CLIPPER WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY AND LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SHOULD SEE
A WEAK RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AT IWD AND CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING DIMINISH TO 25 KTS ON
TUESDAY WHILE BECOMING NORTHWEST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH
BRIEFLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING LAKE
WINNIPEG LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL THEN SINK ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SW GALES OF 35-40KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. N-NW GALES OF 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FOLLOWING THE LOW. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WHILE KEEPING A WEAK
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ012.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1157 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. A CLIPPER SHRTWV INTO NRN MONTANA WAS MOVING SE INTO
THE DAKOTAS.  AT THE SFC...COLDER AIR WAS MOVING INTO UPPER MI
BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO THROUGH ERN UPPER MI
INTO WRN LOWER MI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTH
END OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN MN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY TO AROUND
-13C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM NE
MN...LITTLE/NO LES HAS DEVELOPED INTO NW UPPER MI THROUGH 20Z.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CAA DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LES FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WRLY FLOW THIS
EVENING. AS WINDS VEER N TO NW OVERNIGHT...ANY LES WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REST OF WRN UPPETHE R MI AND FOR LOCATIONS FROM P53
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
ONLY TO 4K FT WILL LIMIT INTENSITY AND KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
AN INCH.

TUESDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING TO NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE MI BY 00Z/WED. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND STRONGEST 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND MID LEVEL
FGEN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GRAZE THE SRN PORTION OF THE
CWA NEAR MNM WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS TO AROUND 0.15
INCH WITH SLR VALUES NEAR 18/1 WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AMOUNTS TO NEAR 3
INCHES. CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS STILL LIMITED SINCE THE
AREA IS ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SIGNIFCANT QPF FCST. LES INTO THE N
CNTRL CWA NEAR P53 IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHERE THE CONVERGENT
NRLY FLOW IS FOCUSED. OVER THE WEST...THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
MORE ACYC FLOW WILL ALSO REDUCE LES CHANCES/AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED INDICATES A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND WESTERN CANADA WHILE TROUGHING DOMINATES
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST
WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL END UP BLO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE TIME...BUT NOT BY THAT MUCH. WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF STRONGER COLD FRONT. WARMING TREND DEVELOPS AT
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH HOW QUICK THAT OCCURS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS ECMWF/GFS SHOW LIMITED CONSISTENCY IN HOW FAST
TO EXIT THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AT THAT TIME RANGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAINLY
FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NNW WINDS. IN THE LARGE SCALE...HIGH PRESSURE
RESULTS IN NEUTRAL TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
5KFT. CONVERGENCE STRONGEST OVER ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT
AND MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE LAYER WILL BE WITHIN DGZ. ADVY LEVEL SNOW
COULD OCCUR BUT WOULD PROBABLY BE SPREAD FM LATE AFTN ON TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. LIKELY WILL BE LAKE EFFECT OVER WESTERN
SNOWBELTS TOO...BUT SINCE THAT AREA IS FARTHER INTO AFFECTS OF SFC
HIGH...INTENSITY/ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD LINGER
OVER ALGER COUNTY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN ONCE WINDS IN THE BLYR
FINALLY BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS SFC-H85 RIDGE CROSSES UPPER GREAT
LAKES. EVEN WITH WARMING AT H85...COOLER AIR LINGERS BLO...SO TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SIMILAR TO READINGS ON TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE
TEENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ATTN IS ON STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING
FM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW MOVES VCNTY OF WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT H85-H7
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT 280-285K WILL SUPPORT
SWATH OF LGT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. MIXING RATIOS AT H7 ONLY NEAR
1.5G/KG SO OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO 1-3 INCHES.
COUPLE OF ITEMS TO NOTE THOUGH. FIRST IS POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SSW WINDS IN BLYR WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND -12C ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULT IN THIS POTENTIAL. AS IT LOOKS
NOW...AREAS MAINLY TO EAST OF KISQ AND TOWARD KERY WOULD BE FAVORED
03Z-15Z THURSDAY. SLR/S PROBABLY IN THE 13-16:1 RANGE AS GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW ISOTHERMAL LAYER FM H9 TO H75 AROUND -13C. SEEMS
THAT ADVY SNOWS COULD OCCUR IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP. SECOND ISSUE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER THE CWA AS THE SNOW IS
OCCURRING...ADDING A BIT MORE OF AN IMPACT TO THE OTHERWISE LGT SNOW
ACCUMS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH POINT TO WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AS THE
SNOW OCCURS WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE LOW MAY START
TO WEAKEN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRETTY CERTAIN THAT SOME HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH THE HIGHEST CERTAINTY COMING OVER THE SE ZONES
DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND BLSN CLOSER TO LK MICHIGAN SHORE. IF
STRONGER FORCING WAS PRESENT FOR LONGER DURATION AND AIRMASS IN THE
LOW-LEVEL SSW FLOW WAS COLDER...COULD EVEN SEE NEED FOR WARNING. NOT
SURE IF HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE SINCE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ON
LOWER SIDE AND SINCE ONLY EXPECTING MARGINALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS (30
KTS IN BLYR VERSUS 50 KTS). CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THAT OUT THOUGH.

BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND BEYOND...GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH NOT SURE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF ECMWF
AND GEM-NH WERE STRONGER WITH THE SFC LOW WHILE THE 12Z GFS TRENDED
STRONGER. GFS DOES ALSO SHOW THE LOW EVENTUALLY FILLING LATER ON
THURSDAY AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY MAINLY IMPACTS THE
WIND FIELDS ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHEN COLD FRONT CROSSES LK
SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG BUT THE
REALLY STRONG WINDS WOULD BE MITIGATED SOME WITHOUT TIGHTER SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NOTHING CERTAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN MORE CONSIDERABLE
BLSN OVER EXPOSED AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
CWA AS MORE ICE IS BUILT UP IN THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.
LAKE EFFECT THAT DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PROBABLY GETS
A BOOST INTO FRIDAY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND H85-H7 CROSS THE
AREA. WIND DIRECTION NOT CLEAR THOUGH AS WEAKER SYSTEM AS ECMWF
SHOWS RESULTS IN NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WHILE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT
THE GEM-NH WOULD IMPACT N/NE FLOW AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SWITCH
TO MORE OF A N/NW FLOW AREAS ON FRIDAY. WINDS BACKING LATER FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPS IN LOW-LEVELS WARMING SLIGHTLY
SHOULD DIMINISH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT BY SATURDAY.

REST OF EXTENDED...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER THE FCST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS UNCERTAIN WITH HANDLING OF EXITING
OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH. 12Z ECMWF BACK TO SHOWING ONE LAST PUSH OF
CHILLY AIR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPS BLO -20C. 00Z
ECMWF HAD THIS COLD AIR PUSH WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS NEARING
0C AT H85 PUSHING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...LATEST GFS
LOOKS LIKE 00Z ECMWF RUN FM LAST NIGHT WITH WARMING SPREADING INTO
UPR LAKES TO CLOSE NEXT WEEKEND. RAN WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE
GRIDS UNTIL TIMING/WESTERN EXTENT OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH CAN BE
WORKED OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AT IWD AND CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING DIMINISH TO 25 KTS ON
TUESDAY WHILE BECOMING NORTHWEST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH
BRIEFLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING LAKE
WINNIPEG LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL THEN SINK ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SW GALES OF 35-40KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. N-NW GALES OF 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FOLLOWING THE LOW. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WHILE KEEPING A WEAK
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 113 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

ADDED WASHBURN AND SAWYER COUNTY TO WSY BASED ON REPORT OF 5
INCHES 3 MILES SOUTH OF SPOONER AND SAT IMAGERY STILL SHOWING
CONVECTIVE CLOUS MOVING NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

CHANGED SOUTH SHORE FORECAST AS 925/85H WIND ALIGNS AMIDST A
RELATIVELY MOIST SYNOPTIC SCALE WITH COLD ADVECTION IN BNDRY LYR.
CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF NE MN ZONES
AS PER LATEST SAT ANIMATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF 85H FRONTOGENESIS IS MOVING
ACROSS SERN CORNER OF CWA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE
TO CLOUD MASS OVER SERN CWA WITH REPORTED SFC OBS UNDERNEATH OF
1/2SM TO 1 1/2SM VISIBILITY. LATEST HOPWRF AND HRRR 3KM INDICATE 3
TO 5 INCHES SHOULD FALL OVER SRN PRICE COUNTY. A FEW INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SRN SAWYER/WASHBURN COUNTY AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN AS DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. ONE CHALLENGE TODAY IS CLOUD COVER. SKIES HAVE
PARTIALLY CLEARED IN WRN/NRN CWA SO HAVE LOWERED COVERAGE IN
GRIDS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE INDICATED ON RAP40 OVER SRN MANITOBA
...ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC SHEAR FROM UPPER JET...IS MOVING SOUTH
AND HAS SPREAD ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NWRN CORNER OF
MN. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS THIS AFTN OVER WRN CWA AND ADDED
FLURRIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. LOWERED MAX TEMPS JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON LATEST OBS AND LAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

AT 315AM/0915Z...THERE WAS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAD A SUBTLE
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NNW THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN MANITOBA. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AND SOUTH HAD
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THE HEAVIES SNOW WAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS
A BAND OF LOW OVERCAST CLOUDS ALONG AND NEAR THE INVERTED
TROUGH...AND THE BAND WAS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NW MINNESOTA. THE WINDS WERE CALM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAD VERY LIGHT N
TO NNE WINDS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 20S IN NW WISCONSIN
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.

TODAY...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODELS INDICATED A BIT MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH...ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PRICE COUNTY COULD
SEE ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES. AREAS SOUTH OF
HINCKLEY...GRANTSBURG...SPOONER...AND HAYWARD COULD SEE ABOUT 2 TO
3 INCHES IN THEIR RESPECTIVE COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AND EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA DUE TO THE LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE CLIPPER OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NE MINNESOTA.

TONIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE CLEARING AND DECREASING
WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON
AND ASHLAND COUNTIES DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL MOVE NW SASKATCHEWAN
TO CENTRAL MANITOBA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL QUICKLY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ITS APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST. I
INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES QUITE A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS
BEING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. I LEANED ON THE SREF FOR THOSE
PCPN CHANCES. MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA WILL GET ABOUT A HALF TO 1.5
INCHES BY THE EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. I
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONSET OF
THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW DUE TO SATURATION TO THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT
ONCE THE INITIAL MAIN BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH...THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SATURATION COULD BE LOST...LEAVING A RELATIVELY WARM
LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTAL
NUCLEATION FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

EMPHASIS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE EARLY AND REVOLVE AROUND
SNOW AND WIND WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
FROM MANITOBA WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THE EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE. STRONG CAA WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE WAA/SHORTWAVE AND WE HAVE
SNOWFALL JUST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM A HALF TO AROUND 3
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD...AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION SEEING THE LOWER
AMOUNTS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE NORTHLAND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...THERE DOES REMAIN SOME ISSUES
ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL PLAY
A CRITICAL ROLE IN HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AND WHEN THE PEAK WIND
PERIOD WILL OCCUR. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF...THEN INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THEM DROPPING
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA DUE TO THE STRONG CAA.
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. MOST AREAS THURSDAY
SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOWBELT OF THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES...WILL
SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT CAUSING MOST OF THE SNOW TO END. NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

A WEAK LOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS RELATIVELY
DRY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
LOWER TO MID TWENTIES OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM 5 TO 15...THEN THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
REACHING THE TWENTIES FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

VFR SKIES COVER MOST OF TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR HYR WHERE IFR CIGS
ARE OCCURING BECAUSE OF SNOW. THERE IS A AREA OF MVFR-IFR CIGS
MOVING EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN AND WILL OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AFTER
21Z. THERE WILL BE A IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR-VFR TONIGHT BEFORE MVFR
CIGS MOVE BACK IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -2  12   9  23 /   0  70  60  50
INL -12  16  15  16 /  10  70  70  50
BRD  -5  17  15  21 /  10  80  50  50
HYR  -1  13  11  25 /  20  30  70  50
ASX   1  14  12  27 /  40  20  70  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ007>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...STEWART







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

 1207 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

ADDED WASHBURN AND SAWYER COUNTY TO WSY BASED ON REPORT OF 5
INCHES 3 MILES SOUTH OF SPOONER AND SAT IMAGERY STILL SHOWING
CONVECTIVE CLOUS MOVING NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

CHANGED SOUTH SHORE FORECAST AS 925/85H WIND ALIGNS AMIDST A
RELATIVELY MOIST SYNOPTIC SCALE WITH COLD ADVECTION IN BNDRY LYR.
CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF NE MN ZONES
AS PER LATEST SAT ANIMATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF 85H FRONTOGENESIS IS MOVING
ACROSS SERN CORNER OF CWA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE
TO CLOUD MASS OVER SERN CWA WITH REPORTED SFC OBS UNDERNEATH OF
1/2SM TO 1 1/2SM VISIBILITY. LATEST HOPWRF AND HRRR 3KM INDICATE 3
TO 5 INCHES SHOULD FALL OVER SRN PRICE COUNTY. A FEW INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SRN SAWYER/WASHBURN COUNTY AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN AS DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. ONE CHALLENGE TODAY IS CLOUD COVER. SKIES HAVE
PARTIALLY CLEARED IN WRN/NRN CWA SO HAVE LOWERED COVERAGE IN
GRIDS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE INDICATED ON RAP40 OVER SRN MANITOBA
...ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC SHEAR FROM UPPER JET...IS MOVING SOUTH
AND HAS SPREAD ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NWRN CORNER OF
MN. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS THIS AFTN OVER WRN CWA AND ADDED
FLURRIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. LOWERED MAX TEMPS JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON LATEST OBS AND LAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

AT 315AM/0915Z...THERE WAS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAD A SUBTLE
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NNW THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN MANITOBA. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AND SOUTH HAD
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THE HEAVIES SNOW WAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS
A BAND OF LOW OVERCAST CLOUDS ALONG AND NEAR THE INVERTED
TROUGH...AND THE BAND WAS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NW MINNESOTA. THE WINDS WERE CALM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAD VERY LIGHT N
TO NNE WINDS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 20S IN NW WISCONSIN
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.

TODAY...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODELS INDICATED A BIT MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH...ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PRICE COUNTY COULD
SEE ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES. AREAS SOUTH OF
HINCKLEY...GRANTSBURG...SPOONER...AND HAYWARD COULD SEE ABOUT 2 TO
3 INCHES IN THEIR RESPECTIVE COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AND EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA DUE TO THE LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE CLIPPER OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NE MINNESOTA.

TONIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE CLEARING AND DECREASING
WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON
AND ASHLAND COUNTIES DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL MOVE NW SASKATCHEWAN
TO CENTRAL MANITOBA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL QUICKLY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ITS APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST. I
INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES QUITE A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS
BEING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. I LEANED ON THE SREF FOR THOSE
PCPN CHANCES. MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA WILL GET ABOUT A HALF TO 1.5
INCHES BY THE EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. I
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONSET OF
THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW DUE TO SATURATION TO THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT
ONCE THE INITIAL MAIN BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH...THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SATURATION COULD BE LOST...LEAVING A RELATIVELY WARM
LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTAL
NUCLEATION FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

EMPHASIS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE EARLY AND REVOLVE AROUND
SNOW AND WIND WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
FROM MANITOBA WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THE EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE. STRONG CAA WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE WAA/SHORTWAVE AND WE HAVE
SNOWFALL JUST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM A HALF TO AROUND 3
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD...AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION SEEING THE LOWER
AMOUNTS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE NORTHLAND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...THERE DOES REMAIN SOME ISSUES
ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL PLAY
A CRITICAL ROLE IN HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AND WHEN THE PEAK WIND
PERIOD WILL OCCUR. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF...THEN INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THEM DROPPING
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA DUE TO THE STRONG CAA.
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. MOST AREAS THURSDAY
SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOWBELT OF THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES...WILL
SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT CAUSING MOST OF THE SNOW TO END. NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

A WEAK LOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS RELATIVELY
DRY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
LOWER TO MID TWENTIES OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM 5 TO 15...THEN THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
REACHING THE TWENTIES FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

A CLIPPER MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE EAST TODAY. SNOW WAS FALLING FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WERE
OCCURRING DUE TO THE CLIPPER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND. MORE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WERE MOVING SOUTH FROM FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR UNDER THESE
CLOUDS. THE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MOVING SOUTH SHOULD ARRIVE IN KHIB
OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...AND IN KDLH IN 3 TO 4 HOURS. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TONIGHT IN HOW QUICKLY THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DISSIPATE. AT THIS TIME...WE THINK SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO LAKE PROCESSES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -2  12   9  23 /   0  70  60  50
INL -12  16  15  16 /  10  70  70  50
BRD  -5  17  15  21 /  10  80  50  50
HYR  -1  13  11  25 /  20  30  70  50
ASX   1  14  12  27 /  40  20  70  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ007>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

 1128 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

CHANGED SOUTH SHORE FORECAST AS 925/85H WIND ALIGNS AMIDST A
RELATIVELY MOIST SYNOPTIC SCALE WITH COLD ADVECTION IN BNDRY LYR.
CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF NE MN ZONES
AS PER LATEST SAT ANIMATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF 85H FRONTOGENESIS IS MOVING
ACROSS SERN CORNER OF CWA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE
TO CLOUD MASS OVER SERN CWA WITH REPORTED SFC OBS UNDERNEATH OF
1/2SM TO 1 1/2SM VISIBILITY. LATEST HOPWRF AND HRRR 3KM INDICATE 3
TO 5 INCHES SHOULD FALL OVER SRN PRICE COUNTY. A FEW INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SRN SAWYER/WASHBURN COUNTY AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN AS DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. ONE CHALLENGE TODAY IS CLOUD COVER. SKIES HAVE
PARTIALLY CLEARED IN WRN/NRN CWA SO HAVE LOWERED COVERAGE IN
GRIDS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE INDICATED ON RAP40 OVER SRN MANITOBA
...ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC SHEAR FROM UPPER JET...IS MOVING SOUTH
AND HAS SPREAD ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NWRN CORNER OF
MN. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS THIS AFTN OVER WRN CWA AND ADDED
FLURRIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. LOWERED MAX TEMPS JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON LATEST OBS AND LAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

AT 315AM/0915Z...THERE WAS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAD A SUBTLE
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NNW THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN MANITOBA. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AND SOUTH HAD
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THE HEAVIES SNOW WAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS
A BAND OF LOW OVERCAST CLOUDS ALONG AND NEAR THE INVERTED
TROUGH...AND THE BAND WAS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NW MINNESOTA. THE WINDS WERE CALM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAD VERY LIGHT N
TO NNE WINDS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 20S IN NW WISCONSIN
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.

TODAY...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODELS INDICATED A BIT MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH...ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PRICE COUNTY COULD
SEE ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES. AREAS SOUTH OF
HINCKLEY...GRANTSBURG...SPOONER...AND HAYWARD COULD SEE ABOUT 2 TO
3 INCHES IN THEIR RESPECTIVE COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AND EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA DUE TO THE LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE CLIPPER OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NE MINNESOTA.

TONIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE CLEARING AND DECREASING
WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON
AND ASHLAND COUNTIES DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL MOVE NW SASKATCHEWAN
TO CENTRAL MANITOBA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL QUICKLY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ITS APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST. I
INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES QUITE A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS
BEING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. I LEANED ON THE SREF FOR THOSE
PCPN CHANCES. MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA WILL GET ABOUT A HALF TO 1.5
INCHES BY THE EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. I
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONSET OF
THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW DUE TO SATURATION TO THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT
ONCE THE INITIAL MAIN BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH...THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SATURATION COULD BE LOST...LEAVING A RELATIVELY WARM
LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTAL
NUCLEATION FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

EMPHASIS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE EARLY AND REVOLVE AROUND
SNOW AND WIND WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
FROM MANITOBA WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THE EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE. STRONG CAA WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE WAA/SHORTWAVE AND WE HAVE
SNOWFALL JUST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM A HALF TO AROUND 3
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD...AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION SEEING THE LOWER
AMOUNTS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE NORTHLAND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...THERE DOES REMAIN SOME ISSUES
ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL PLAY
A CRITICAL ROLE IN HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AND WHEN THE PEAK WIND
PERIOD WILL OCCUR. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF...THEN INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THEM DROPPING
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA DUE TO THE STRONG CAA.
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. MOST AREAS THURSDAY
SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOWBELT OF THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES...WILL
SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT CAUSING MOST OF THE SNOW TO END. NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

A WEAK LOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS RELATIVELY
DRY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
LOWER TO MID TWENTIES OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM 5 TO 15...THEN THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
REACHING THE TWENTIES FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

A CLIPPER MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE EAST TODAY. SNOW WAS FALLING FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WERE
OCCURRING DUE TO THE CLIPPER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND. MORE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WERE MOVING SOUTH FROM FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR UNDER THESE
CLOUDS. THE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MOVING SOUTH SHOULD ARRIVE IN KHIB
OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...AND IN KDLH IN 3 TO 4 HOURS. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TONIGHT IN HOW QUICKLY THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DISSIPATE. AT THIS TIME...WE THINK SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO LAKE PROCESSES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  14  -2  12   9 /  20   0  70  60
INL   9 -12  16  15 /  10  10  70  70
BRD  16  -5  17  15 /  90  10  80  50
HYR  18  -1  13  11 /  80  20  30  70
ASX  17   1  14  12 /  60  40  20  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

 1038 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF 85H FRONTOGENESIS IS MOVING
ACROSS SERN CORNER OF CWA. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE
TO CLOUD MASS OVER SERN CWA WITH REPORTED SFC OBS UNDERNEATH OF
1/2SM TO 1 1/2SM VISIBILITY. LATEST HOPWRF AND HRRR 3KM INDICATE 3
TO 5 INCHES SHOULD FALL OVER SRN PRICE COUNTY. A FEW INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SRN SAWYER/WASHBURN COUNTY AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN AS DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. ONE CHALLENGE TODAY IS CLOUD COVER. SKIES HAVE
PARTIALLY CLEARED IN WRN/NRN CWA SO HAVE LOWERED COVERAGE IN
GRIDS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE INDICATED ON RAP40 OVER SRN MANITOBA
...ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC SHEAR FROM UPPER JET...IS MOVING SOUTH
AND HAS SPREAD ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NWRN CORNER OF
MN. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS THIS AFTN OVER WRN CWA AND ADDED
FLURRIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. LOWERED MAX TEMPS JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON LATEST OBS AND LAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

AT 315AM/0915Z...THERE WAS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAD A SUBTLE
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NNW THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN MANITOBA. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AND SOUTH HAD
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THE HEAVIES SNOW WAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS
A BAND OF LOW OVERCAST CLOUDS ALONG AND NEAR THE INVERTED
TROUGH...AND THE BAND WAS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NW MINNESOTA. THE WINDS WERE CALM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAD VERY LIGHT N
TO NNE WINDS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 20S IN NW WISCONSIN
UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.

TODAY...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODELS INDICATED A BIT MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH...ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PRICE COUNTY COULD
SEE ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES. AREAS SOUTH OF
HINCKLEY...GRANTSBURG...SPOONER...AND HAYWARD COULD SEE ABOUT 2 TO
3 INCHES IN THEIR RESPECTIVE COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AND EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA DUE TO THE LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE CLIPPER OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NE MINNESOTA.

TONIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE CLEARING AND DECREASING
WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE MIGHT BE SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON
AND ASHLAND COUNTIES DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL MOVE NW SASKATCHEWAN
TO CENTRAL MANITOBA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL QUICKLY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ITS APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST. I
INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES QUITE A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS
BEING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. I LEANED ON THE SREF FOR THOSE
PCPN CHANCES. MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA WILL GET ABOUT A HALF TO 1.5
INCHES BY THE EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. I
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONSET OF
THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW DUE TO SATURATION TO THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT
ONCE THE INITIAL MAIN BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH...THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SATURATION COULD BE LOST...LEAVING A RELATIVELY WARM
LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTAL
NUCLEATION FOR SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

EMPHASIS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE EARLY AND REVOLVE AROUND
SNOW AND WIND WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
FROM MANITOBA WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THE EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE. STRONG CAA WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE WAA/SHORTWAVE AND WE HAVE
SNOWFALL JUST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM A HALF TO AROUND 3
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD...AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION SEEING THE LOWER
AMOUNTS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE NORTHLAND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...THERE DOES REMAIN SOME ISSUES
ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL PLAY
A CRITICAL ROLE IN HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AND WHEN THE PEAK WIND
PERIOD WILL OCCUR. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF...THEN INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THEM DROPPING
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA DUE TO THE STRONG CAA.
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. MOST AREAS THURSDAY
SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOWBELT OF THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES...WILL
SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT CAUSING MOST OF THE SNOW TO END. NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

A WEAK LOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS RELATIVELY
DRY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
LOWER TO MID TWENTIES OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM 5 TO 15...THEN THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
REACHING THE TWENTIES FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

A CLIPPER MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE EAST TODAY. SNOW WAS FALLING FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION EAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WERE
OCCURRING DUE TO THE CLIPPER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND. MORE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WERE MOVING SOUTH FROM FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR UNDER THESE
CLOUDS. THE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MOVING SOUTH SHOULD ARRIVE IN KHIB
OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...AND IN KDLH IN 3 TO 4 HOURS. OVERALL...WE
EXPECT MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TONIGHT IN HOW QUICKLY THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DISSIPATE. AT THIS TIME...WE THINK SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO LAKE PROCESSES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  14  -2  12   9 /  20   0  70  60
INL   9 -12  16  15 /  10   0  70  70
BRD  16  -5  17  15 /  90  10  80  50
HYR  18  -1  13  11 /  80  10  30  70
ASX  17   1  14  12 /  40  20  20  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 1052 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2014

.UPDATE...

SNOWFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE FOOTHILLS
AREAS WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING. WEBCAMS
CURRENTLY SHOWING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...ACROSS BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO FOR THESE AREAS WITH
ANOTHER 2 OR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...HAVE LET ALL WINTER HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE AT 10AM EXCEPT
FOR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 5PM. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ROOTS IN A PINEAPPLE
CONNECTION IS BEING REAL EFFICIENT AND PRODUCING SO FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. BAND IS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AN IS MOST INTENSE OVER STILLWATER
AND CARBON COUNTIES WHERE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
NUDGE THE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE EAST. THIS CAN BE SEEN AS
BILLINGS PRESSURE IS RISING LIVINGSTON IS FALLING...SO
FRONTOGENESIS IS PICKING ALONG THE BAND...WHICH IS ALSO AIDED BY
SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE PRYOR MOUNTAINS AND BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE
FOOTHILLS.

FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW FAST DOES THIS BAND MIGRATE
EASTWARD BEFORE RISING HEIGHTS STABILIZE THE AIRMASS TOO MUCH AND
DOWNSLOPE ERODES THE PRECIPITATION. RUC MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE THAT
REALLY TRACKED THE PRECIP WELL EARLIER AND IT SHIFTS THE AXIS INTO
YELLOWSTONE AND BIG HORN COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WANE. THIS SEEMS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SO INCREASING POPS FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES. JUST GOT REPORT
OF 12 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW IN RED LODGE AND GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS WILL UPGRADE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN CARBON COUNTY
TO A WINTER STORM WARMING. WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WYOMING UNTIL 10 AM. EXPECT AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN BILLINGS AND AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES FOR
THE ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND ANOTHER 3 FOR THE WARNING AREA.
PROBABLY SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING DUE TO WINDS ABOVE 20
MPH BUT EARLY SPOTTER REPORTS SAY IT WAS STICKY AND NOT REALLY
MOVING.

OTHERWISE AS LEESIDE TROUGHING WINDS INCREASE...TEMPERATURES
INCREASE AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WINDY
DAY BUT ANY FRONTAL PUSH LOOKS TO BE LATER AT NIGHT...SO NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT LOW ELEVATION WINDS. LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR GAP FLOW AREAS BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODELS TO DECIDE. BORSUM


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

DRY NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA INTO SAT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ON SUN IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. HOWEVER...AIRMASS LOOKED
DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO HAVE LIMITED LOW POPS TO JUST
THE MOUNTAINS. GFS HAD A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ON MON
FROM THE N WHILE ECMWF MAINTAINED A QUIETER NW FLOW. FOR
NOW...JUST HAD SOME MOUNTAIN POPS FOR MON. A DRY NW FLOW
PREVAILED ON TUE. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LEE TROUGHINESS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN THE GAP
FLOW AREAS AND BIG TIMBER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM E OF KLVM TO SW OF
KMLS...INCLUDING NEAR KBIL AND KSHR...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THAT REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT AVIATION ACROSS THE
EAST...INCLUDING BAKER...THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN ROUTES...INCLUDING KLVM AND BIG TIMBER.
THE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 031/051 028/041 030/049 028/050 032/047 028/044
    7/N 11/N    10/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B
LVM 042 034/049 030/040 030/047 033/047 038/046 032/043
    1/N 11/N    10/B    00/N    00/U    01/N    11/B
HDN 039 023/049 023/039 020/045 018/048 022/043 019/040
    6/B 11/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B
MLS 034 025/044 022/034 019/041 020/040 022/040 018/035
    1/B 11/N    10/N    00/B    00/U    01/U    11/B
4BQ 034 025/048 024/034 019/042 018/042 024/043 020/039
    4/B 01/N    00/N    00/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 031 024/045 020/027 018/037 017/039 022/041 017/034
    1/B 11/N    11/N    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B
SHR 037 023/050 022/038 020/045 023/047 023/047 022/044
    8/W 01/U    10/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    10/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
      AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 412 AM MST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ROOTS IN A PINEAPPLE
CONNECTION IS BEING REAL EFFICIENT AND PRODUCING SO FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. BAND IS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AN IS MOST INTENSE OVER STILLWATER
AND CARBON COUNTIES WHERE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
NUDGE THE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE EAST. THIS CAN BE SEEN AS
BILLINGS PRESSURE IS RISING LIVINGSTON IS FALLING...SO
FRONTOGENESIS IS PICKING ALONG THE BAND...WHICH IS ALSO AIDED BY
SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE PRYOR MOUNTAINS AND BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE
FOOTHILLS.

FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW FAST DOES THIS BAND MIGRATE
EASTWARD BEFORE RISING HEIGHTS STABILIZE THE AIRMASS TOO MUCH AND
DOWNSLOPE ERODES THE PRECIPITATION. RUC MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE THAT
REALLY TRACKED THE PRECIP WELL EARLIER AND IT SHIFTS THE AXIS INTO
YELLOWSTONE AND BIG HORN COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WANE. THIS SEEMS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SO INCREASING POPS FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES. JUST GOT REPORT
OF 12 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW IN RED LODGE AND GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS WILL UPGRADE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN CARBON COUNTY
TO A WINTER STORM WARMING. WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WYOMING UNTIL 10 AM. EXPECT AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN BILLINGS AND AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES FOR
THE ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND ANOTHER 3 FOR THE WARNING AREA.
PROBABLY SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING DUE TO WINDS ABOVE 20
MPH BUT EARLY SPOTTER REPORTS SAY IT WAS STICKY AND NOT REALLY
MOVING.

OTHERWISE AS LEESIDE TROUGHING WINDS INCREASE...TEMPERATURES
INCREASE AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WINDY
DAY BUT ANY FRONTAL PUSH LOOKS TO BE LATER AT NIGHT...SO NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT LOW ELEVATION WINDS. LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR GAP FLOW AREAS BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODELS TO DECIDE. BORSUM


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

DRY NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA INTO SAT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ON SUN IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. HOWEVER...AIRMASS LOOKED
DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO HAVE LIMITED LOW POPS TO JUST
THE MOUNTAINS. GFS HAD A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ON MON
FROM THE N WHILE ECMWF MAINTAINED A QUIETER NW FLOW. FOR
NOW...JUST HAD SOME MOUNTAIN POPS FOR MON. A DRY NW FLOW
PREVAILED ON TUE. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LEE TROUGHINESS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN THE GAP
FLOW AREAS AND BIG TIMBER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM E OF KLVM TO SW OF
KMLS...INCLUDING KBIL AND KSHR...THIS MORNING DUE TO SNOW.
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS WILL BE OBSCURED THIS
MORNING. EXPECT LOCALIZED OBSCURATION OVER THE CRAZYS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WILL RETURN TO THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 031/051 028/041 030/049 028/050 032/047 028/044
    7/J 11/N    10/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B
LVM 042 034/049 030/040 030/047 033/047 038/046 032/043
    1/N 11/N    10/B    00/N    00/U    01/N    11/B
HDN 039 023/049 023/039 020/045 018/048 022/043 019/040
    6/J 11/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B
MLS 034 025/044 022/034 019/041 020/040 022/040 018/035
    1/N 11/N    10/N    00/B    00/U    01/U    11/B
4BQ 034 025/048 024/034 019/042 018/042 024/043 020/039
    2/J 01/N    00/N    00/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 031 024/045 020/027 018/037 017/039 022/041 017/034
    1/N 11/N    11/N    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B
SHR 037 023/050 022/038 020/045 023/047 023/047 022/044
    8/J 01/U    10/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    10/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS
      MORNING FOR ZONE 38.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING
      FOR ZONES 39-56.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS
      MORNING FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
      AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 334 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR ON SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD AS IT
IS APPROACHES RALEIGH BUT IS IT STILL LAGS A BIT TO THE SOUTH. A
POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS RUNNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. THE 18Z UTC RUC IS SHOWING THE 850 LOW LEVEL JET MAX CENTERED
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE
AREA BY 22 UTC. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE WHAT IS ENHANCING THE LOW TOP
CONVECTION IN INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

SEA FOG IS NOW BREAKING UP ALONG THE GEORGETOWN COAST AND WILL
LINGER FOR THE NEXT HALF HOUR BEFORE BECOMING A NONE FACTOR.

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT TO THE COAST BY 7 PM BUT THE
MODELS MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THEN SLOWLY TAPER THE
RAIN OFF OVERNIGHT. QPF VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN A HALF OF AN
INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WILL A LITTLE SNOW FALL EARLY THURS OR
NOT IS THE QUESTION...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG COLD FRONT WELL OFF
SHORE IN DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON WED. EXPECT SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPS UP CLOSER TO 60 BUT THIS
TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY PUSHING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT. A POTENT VORT
MAX WILL RIDE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AS THE TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH BEST UPWARD VV WITHIN
THE FEW HOURS SURROUNDING DAYBREAK. BY NOON ON THURS ALL PCP
SHOULD MOVE OFF SHORE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND A
HALF INCH WITH MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING BEST SATURATION IN THE
LAYER BETWEEN BETWEEN 1500 FT AND 5K FT THROUGH THURS MORNING.
OVERALL NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND BORDERLINE TEMP
PROFILES UP THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SNOW.

IT WILL BE TRICKY AS TO HOW FAST THE COLD AIR MOVES IN VS. HOW
MUCH LINGERING MOISTURE THERE IS TO SQUEEZE OUT. SFC FRONT BRINGS
COOLER AIR IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AT THE SURFACE BUT WARM NOSE ALOFT
STILL EVIDENT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH CAA INCREASING THROUGH
LATE MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW ALOFT...BUT THIS WILL
ALSO INCREASE DRYING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PLUS DIURNAL WARMING
WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MIXED PCP OR SNOW TO FALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. INLAND WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC AS THEY WILL SEE
COOLER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT BEFORE DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW.

SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS REMAIN RIGHT AROUND FREEZING AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS REACHING
BELOW FREEZING INLAND SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT JUST
AROUND DAYBREAK CLOSE TO THE COAST. THEREFORE WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TAKEN INTO EFFECT...WOULD SAY LIKELIHOOD OF ANY MIXED PCP
WILL BE INLAND. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE SOME MIXED PCP INLAND BUT
WILL KEEP RAIN ALONG THE COAST...BUT WOULD NOT DISCOUNT SOME SNOW
MIXING IN BEFORE IT ALL ENDS. ALL PCP WILL END BY NOON AS SUBSIDENCE
AND FURTHER DRYING OCCURS ON BACK END OF SYSTEM AND TEMPS REACH
UP CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES. CLEARING WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PLAGUE THE EAST COAST
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED. THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COLD TROUGH RELOADS
ONCE AGAIN AND PUSHES SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FAST AND ACTIVE FLOW CONTINUES...IN A PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED THE
ENTIRE WINTER THUS FAR. DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS AXIS WEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG VORT
SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS DRIVES A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT...PLAN TO KEEP INHERITED DRY FORECAST AS THETA-E
RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED OFFSHORE AND PWATS ARE QUITE LOW. BIGGER
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG CAA...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THIS FRONT...COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH RELOADING AS A
SECOND VORT SWINGS THROUGH...WITH THE BEST FORCING AGAIN REMAINING
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE WKND...AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR OCCURS LATE
SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP WITH THESE
FEATURES...BUT WINTRY PRECIP WON`T BE TOO FAR REMOVED TO THE NORTH.

MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY WEEK AS A RENEWED TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIVE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY...DRIVING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. THIS PUSHES THE HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...WHICH...ALTHOUGH IT WEAKENS CREATING A RATHER DIFFUSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...STILL PROMOTES SW RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS RISING
TO CLIMO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MON/TUE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS INLAND AT THE ONSET...WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON...POST FRONTAL. WITH ALL THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...FOG IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. WILL GO WITH MAINLY IFR...HOWEVER LIFR IS A REASONABLE
POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY IF THE CIRRUS BECOMES SCATTERED.
WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY ONCE THE FOG MIXES OUT WHICH SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUICK AFTER SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SO
LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THURSDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 PM AS IT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND ADVECT TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT FOR THE WATERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WATERS IS EXPECTED AFTER 7 PM AND
WITH THIS FRONT A GOOD PUSH OF OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AND THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT 8 PM SOUTH OF LITTLE
RIVER INLET AND 2 AM FOR THE WATERS TO THE NORTH. SEAS SHOULD RELAX
LATE AND WILL BEGIN AT 4 TO 6 FEET BUT WILL SETTLE OUT TO A RANGE
OF 2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 5 FEET AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FRONTS ON WED WITH
ONE EXITING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND ONE MARCHING EAST TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT W-SW
WINDS TO START. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST UP NEAR 20
KTS. A VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE
WEST AS YET ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS INCREASING TO 2-4
FEET BY WED NIGHT INTO THURS. MAY SEE A FEW 5 FTERS IN OUTER
WATERS AS WINDS SPIKE UP ON THURS. A SHARP RISE WILL BEGIN JUST AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE PERIOD...ONE SATURDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER SUNDAY EVE.
THIS CREATES TWO PERIODS OF INCREASED WINDS...AND MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE
FIRST FRONT ON FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS FRIDAY
NIGHT...DRIVING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW AT 15-25
KTS BEFORE EASING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE HIGHEST SEAS GET
PUSHED AWAY FROM SHORE. THIS LEAVES 2-4 FT SEAS MUCH OF SATURDAY.
WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT...WEAKER...COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
AGAIN TURNS WINDS TO THE NW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO 3-5 FT DURING SUNDAY.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL/DRH









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1257 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...SLOWING
OVER THE CAROLINAS AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF
THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
AHEAD OF A 100KT 500MB JET THAT PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A DRY PUNCH WAS MOVING EAST
ACROSS TENNESSEE AND APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...
AND THIS DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...THE 12Z KGSO SOUNDING INDICATED DEEP
MOISTURE WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT...PARTLY
NOTED BY 850MB WINDS GREATER THAN WHAT THE RAP WAS FORECASTING EARLY
THIS MORNING...AROUND 40KT. AS THE LIFTING SYNOPTIC FEATURES MOVE
EAST AND NORTHEAST...DRIER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE BY 23Z EVEN AS
FAR EAST AS THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FALLING TO 0.75 INCH OR LESS BY 00Z. LOOKING AT THE TIMING OF THE
DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH THE HRRR WRF RAINFALL FORECAST WOULD
INDICATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE DRYING IN THE TRIAD AROUND
18Z...IN THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE BETWEEN 19Z AND 2030Z...AND
IN THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 22Z. CLEARING MAY BE DELAYED FROM
THAT ABOUT AN HOUR...BUT IT SHOULD BE CLOSE. DID NOT MODIFY
TEMPERATURES MUCH...MAYBE A DEGREE LOWER...DUE TO THE ALREADY WARM
VALUES MOSTLY ONLY A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW FORECAST MAXIMUMS. MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND
AMPLIFY THE MEAN MID-UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHOSE EASTWARD PROGRESS
HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN NWP GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND IS NOW FORECAST TO
CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WED. THIS
SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES TURNS NNE UP
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WAITS FOR UPSTREAM ENERGY TO PUSH
THE TROUGH EASTWARD...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
50S...WITH SKY COVER MOSTLY SUNNY EAST TO BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
WEST.

THE FORECAST - A BELOW AVERAGE ONE GIVEN CONTINUED LARGER THAN AVG
MODEL SPREAD - GETS MORE INTERESTING WED NIGHT...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED 150-180 METERS MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DIG ACROSS THE SAVANNAH BASIN AND OFFSHORE THE SC
COAST - A TRACK FAVORABLE FOR "NW FLOW" PRECIPITATION (NORTH OF THE
VORT TRACK) ACROSS NC. WHILE NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK/OPEN
SURFACE WAVE MAY ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS NC...SOME
DEGREE OF COASTAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS AS THE STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE GULF STREAM AND LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE
JUST OFFSHORE - THE ONE THAT CROSSES OUR REGION TODAY. NWP GUIDANCE
HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH BOTH THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AS WELL AS UPON WHICH BOUNDARY - THE
QUASI-STATIONARY OFFSHORE ONE OR CROSSING ARCTIC ONE - THE PRIMARY
LOW DEVELOPS. THIS REMAINING QUESTION WILL HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON
DURATION AND INLAND-EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WHOSE TYPE WOULD
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE DEEP LAYER COOLING CRASHES COAST-
WARD PER BOTH PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WHOSE
PARENT MASS FIELDS AND QPF OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE PREFERRED ECMWF/EC ENSEMBLE MEAN.

IN THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHANCE
RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY THU HOURS...WITH
WORDING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT IN EITHER SCENARIO...SINCE AN UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE
WOULD LEAVE LITTLE TIME FOR THE OFFSHORE LOW TO LINGER OFF THE NC
COAST. THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO LATER THIS
MORNING....THOUGH ASSOCIATED IMPACTS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE VERY
MINIMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE 20S...USHERED IN BY A
BREEZY NW WIND...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

STRONGLY PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH PERSIST IN THE MEANS...WITH AN UNDERCUTTING SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE GOM AND SW ATLANTIC. IN THIS PATTERN...A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL
WAVE/SYSTEM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
PRONOUNCED BUT SHORT-LIVED POST-FRONTAL COLD...FOLLOWED BY ALSO
BRIEF PRE-FRONTAL MODIFICATION.

AS SUCH...THU WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR AND CHILLY BETWEEN 40-45
DEGREES...FOLWITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PERTURBATIONS MOVING
THROUGH IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW... LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA... AND LIFT IS ENHANCED BY
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN
PART OF THE CWA AROUND 15Z... AND CLEAR THE CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES... AND DRY AIR
MOVES IN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH A PERIOD OF SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE WEST... HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S. A MILD START
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S IN THE EAST... DESPITE
THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND MODERATION INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FRI. FRONTAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY INVOF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK AS SPLIT
STREAMS ALIGN FAVORABLY FOR STRONG ASCENT CENTERED OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS...THOUGH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAST-
MOVING IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW. DESPITE LARGER THAN AVG MODEL SPREAD
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THERE IS A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL IN NWP
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY WITH THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE
PROVEN MORE ACCURATE PARTICULARLY IN RECENT DAYS...SUCH THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION - AGAIN LIKELY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW - IS
JUSTIFIED FOR LATE FRI FRI NIGHT. COOLER SAT...THEN MODERATING
SUN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE LOW SCHEDULED FOR MON...THOUGH
THIS ONE APPEARS MORE MOISTURE-STARVED AND FARTHER NORTH AS THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN RELAXES BRIEFLY AND THE ZONAL INDEX INCREASES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS CANADA
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...SO THE NEXT BUCKLE IN THE FLOW
THAT BOTH THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS WOULD SEND THIS AIR
MASS OUR WAY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUESDAY...

LIGHT RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
TAKING THE IFR CONDITIONS WITH IT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS
EVENING...BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN...ENOUGH THAT...WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...EVEN SOMEWHAT ALOFT...AND THE RECENT
RAIN...SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE. SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF FOG SHOULD BE OUTSIDE OF THE TRIAD WHERE THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE
FORECAST SHOWS CONDITIONS OF MVFR FOG IN THE TRIAD AND IFR FOG
ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR AREAS
OF FOG LATE TONIGHT REGARDLESS OF TRAVEL IN AND AROUND CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE TRIAD AT THE VERY END OF THE
18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT SLOWS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN PUSHES OFF THE
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT OR TWO MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TOWARD THE TRIAD
AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALSO THE
THREAT OF A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THEN. SIMILAR WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...SEC/DJF
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 925 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WEATHER OF THE CAROLINAS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH DRIER
AIR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
AND INDUCE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
AHEAD OF A 100KT 500MB JET THAT PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A DRY PUNCH WAS MOVING EAST
ACROSS TENNESSEE AND APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...
AND THIS DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...THE 12Z KGSO SOUNDING INDICATED DEEP
MOISTURE WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT...PARTLY
NOTED BY 850MB WINDS GREATER THAN WHAT THE RAP WAS FORECASTING EARLY
THIS MORNING...AROUND 40KT. AS THE LIFTING SYNOPTIC FEATURES MOVE
EAST AND NORTHEAST...DRIER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE BY 23Z EVEN AS
FAR EAST AS THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FALLING TO 0.75 INCH OR LESS BY 00Z. LOOKING AT THE TIMING OF THE
DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH THE HRRR WRF RAINFALL FORECAST WOULD
INDICATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE DRYING IN THE TRIAD AROUND
18Z...IN THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE BETWEEN 19Z AND 2030Z...AND
IN THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 22Z. CLEARING MAY BE DELAYED FROM
THAT ABOUT AN HOUR...BUT IT SHOULD BE CLOSE. DID NOT MODIFY
TEMPERATURES MUCH...MAYBE A DEGREE LOWER...DUE TO THE ALREADY WARM
VALUES MOSTLY ONLY A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW FORECAST MAXIMUMS. MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND
AMPLIFY THE MEAN MID-UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHOSE EASTWARD PROGRESS
HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN NWP GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND IS NOW FORECAST TO
CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WED. THIS
SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES TURNS NNE UP
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WAITS FOR UPSTREAM ENERGY TO PUSH
THE TROUGH EASTWARD...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
50S...WITH SKY COVER MOSTLY SUNNY EAST TO BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
WEST.

THE FORECAST - A BELOW AVERAGE ONE GIVEN CONTINUED LARGER THAN AVG
MODEL SPREAD - GETS MORE INTERESTING WED NIGHT...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED 150-180 METERS MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DIG ACROSS THE SAVANNAH BASIN AND OFFSHORE THE SC
COAST - A TRACK FAVORABLE FOR "NW FLOW" PRECIPITATION (NORTH OF THE
VORT TRACK) ACROSS NC. WHILE NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK/OPEN
SURFACE WAVE MAY ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS NC...SOME
DEGREE OF COASTAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS AS THE STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE GULF STREAM AND LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE
JUST OFFSHORE - THE ONE THAT CROSSES OUR REGION TODAY. NWP GUIDANCE
HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH BOTH THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AS WELL AS UPON WHICH BOUNDARY - THE
QUASI-STATIONARY OFFSHORE ONE OR CROSSING ARCTIC ONE - THE PRIMARY
LOW DEVELOPS. THIS REMAINING QUESTION WILL HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON
DURATION AND INLAND-EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WHOSE TYPE WOULD
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE DEEP LAYER COOLING CRASHES COAST-
WARD PER BOTH PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WHOSE
PARENT MASS FIELDS AND QPF OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE PREFERRED ECMWF/EC ENSEMBLE MEAN.

IN THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHANCE
RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY THU HOURS...WITH
WORDING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT IN EITHER SCENARIO...SINCE AN UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE
WOULD LEAVE LITTLE TIME FOR THE OFFSHORE LOW TO LINGER OFF THE NC
COAST. THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO LATER THIS
MORNING....THOUGH ASSOCIATED IMPACTS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE VERY
MINIMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE 20S...USHERED IN BY A
BREEZY NW WIND...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

STRONGLY PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH PERSIST IN THE MEANS...WITH AN UNDERCUTTING SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE GOM AND SW ATLANTIC. IN THIS PATTERN...A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL
WAVE/SYSTEM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
PRONOUNCED BUT SHORT-LIVED POST-FRONTAL COLD...FOLLOWED BY ALSO
BRIEF PRE-FRONTAL MODIFICATION.

AS SUCH...THU WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR AND CHILLY BETWEEN 40-45
DEGREES...FOLWITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PERTURBATIONS MOVING
THROUGH IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW... LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA... AND LIFT IS ENHANCED BY
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN
PART OF THE CWA AROUND 15Z... AND CLEAR THE CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES... AND DRY AIR
MOVES IN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH A PERIOD OF SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE WEST... HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S. A MILD START
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S IN THE EAST... DESPITE
THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND MODERATION INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FRI. FRONTAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY INVOF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK AS SPLIT
STREAMS ALIGN FAVORABLY FOR STRONG ASCENT CENTERED OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS...THOUGH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAST-
MOVING IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW. DESPITE LARGER THAN AVG MODEL SPREAD
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THERE IS A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL IN NWP
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY WITH THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE
PROVEN MORE ACCURATE PARTICULARLY IN RECENT DAYS...SUCH THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION - AGAIN LIKELY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW - IS
JUSTIFIED FOR LATE FRI FRI NIGHT. COOLER SAT...THEN MODERATING
SUN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE LOW SCHEDULED FOR MON...THOUGH
THIS ONE APPEARS MORE MOISTURE-STARVED AND FARTHER NORTH AS THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN RELAXES BRIEFLY AND THE ZONAL INDEX INCREASES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS CANADA
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...SO THE NEXT BUCKLE IN THE FLOW
THAT BOTH THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS WOULD SEND THIS AIR
MASS OUR WAY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 701 AM TUESDAY...

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST... WITH RAPID CLEARING AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z TUES AND 00Z WED.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE INTO THE WEEKEND... WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...SEC/DJF
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 117 AM EST TUES JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM MONDAY...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

WEAK S/W VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF AN ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED S/W TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EJECT NEWD
AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS IS
JUST NOW STARTING TO FILL IN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...TAKING SOME
TIME TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN PLACE(PWATS 0.3-0.5"). WHILE BROAD
MOISTENING WILL SEND PWATS TO 1.0" IN THE WEST TO 1.2" IN THE
EAST...THE STRONG/BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ALL OF THE HI-RES CAM MODELS AND RAP SHOWING
THE RAIN BAND MOVING EASTWARD IN A WEAKENING/FRAGMENTED STATE.

POPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING VARY FROM LOW END LIKELY NW TO
CATEGORICAL GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. MIN TEMPS RELATIVELY
MILD FOR JANUARY...RANGING FROM MID 40S NW TO AROUND SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL CROSS CENTRAL
NC TUESDAY MORNING...EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WILL ADVECT DRIER
STABLE AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS AIRMASS WILL AID TO
DIMINISH SHOWER COVERAGE WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THIS
DECREASING POP TREND WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY LATE
MORNING...PROGRESSING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MID AFTERNOON.
APPEARS THAT SKIES MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
TO ALLOW FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST AND
PARTIAL SUN WEST SHOULD YIELD A UNIFORM MAX TEMPS FILED TUESDAY.
DOWNSLOPE WARMING DUE TO W-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OFFSET INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAX TEMPS UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE.

DRIER AND NOTICEABLY COOLER AIRMASS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE QUICKLY
TRANSLATING EAST. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION
OF A DEEP L/W TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THER GREAT LAKES SWD
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...ADVANCING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.
A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE THE FORMATION
OF A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SFC WAVE OVER WESTERN
NC. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE S/W AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION...MORE SO IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ONCE THIS S/W LIFTS NWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE PIEDMONT WILL BE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW...
ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD BE MAINLY LIQUID. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT BECOMES DEEPER/CLOSER TO THE SURFACE.

BEST FORCING FOR RAIN SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE NW-NORTHERN
PIEDMONT WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. WILL VARY
POPS FROM CHANCE NW TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. DID ADJUST MAX TEMPS UP
3-5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MAX TEMPS MID 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE. IF RAIN SHOWERS HOLD OFF AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE BECOMES SLOWER...MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES.

AS THE S/W APPROACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE. THE WRAP AROUND FROM THIS
SYSTEM MAY CAUSE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE TRIANGLE AREA. THE
ECMWF STILL FAVORS A MORE INLAND INFLUENCE COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH
REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE. CONSIDERING THE PROBABLE BAROCLINICITY
THAT MAY EXIST OFFSHORE...LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF. THUS EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS BUT NOT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO RAISE ANY CONCERNS. MIN
TEMPS MID 20S WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING TO
NEAR 30 IN THE EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY/DIG SWD AS A POTENT S/W ADVANCES
SEWD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MID-UPPER
FLOW TO BACK TO A SW DIRECTION AND ADVECT MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION
BY THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD BECOME PARTLY-
MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRESENCE
OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL HOLD COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. MIN TEMPS THU NIGHT IN THE UPPER
20S-LOWER 30S. -WSS

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANOTHER POTENT DIGGING S/W ALOFT WILL HELP
AMPLIFY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AGAIN ON
FRIDAY... AND SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARD
TO THE AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH THOUGH. THE
GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP US DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER... THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE SHOWING
SOME PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...
WITH SOME OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS SNOW. FOR NOW WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL... GENERALLY IN THE
30S AND 40S (ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY). WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL FOR MONDAY. -BSD

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA... WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM WEST
TO EAST... WITH RAPID CLEARING AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA BETWEEN 18Z TUES AND 00Z WED.

OUTLOOK... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NC ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS/NP/BSD
AVIATION...SEC/SMITH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 329 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

SKY COVER AND TEMPS THE ISSUE TONIGHT. BAND OF STRATOCU CU OVER
ERN ND ATTM AND HOW/WHEN THIS CLEARS OUT WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR LOW
TEMPS. HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS DO BRING CLEARING TO ERN
ND/RRV THIS EVE AND SPREADS IT EAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOO AND
WITH LIKELY CLEARING/CLEAR SKY FOR A WHILE TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY
INTO THE 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO RANGE MOST AREAS WITH A FEW TEEN BELOW
ZERO TEMPS LIKELY IN PARTS OF FAR NW MN. CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD INTO WRN FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND TEMPS WARM...SO PERIOD OF COLD TEMPS IS SMALL.

STRONG 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH IT ENDING AS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT THE TAIL END. BUT MODELS DO APPEAR TO BUT
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE COLD AIR TO THE EAST OF THE WARM FRONT
SO THINK ICING WILL BE MINIMAL. THUS NO ADVISORIES ISSUED. BUT
LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WED AFTN OVER ERN ND WITH TEMPS 32F
OR HIGHER AS 925 MB REACH +2C. IT WILL BE TURN WINDY AS WELL ESP
WEST OF THE VALLEY WHERE 45-50 KT 925 MB WINDS WILL BE PRESENT.
HOWEVER WITH WARMER AIR COMING OVER THE COLDER SURFACE AN
INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT AND THUS MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. THUS
DONT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES FOR WIND/BLSN WED AFTN/EVE.
VERY CLOSE THOUGH WED EVE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH WIND POTENTIAL.

ARCTIC FRONT WILL START DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FAR NRN VALLEY
06Z-09Z AND THEN PLUNGE SOUTH REACHING FAR SRN FCST AREA SOON
AFTER 12Z THU. 925 MB WINDS OF 50 KTS BECOME MORE NORTH-SOUTH AND
WITH STRONG SURAFCE COOLING SOUNDINGS SHOW ADIABATIC CONDITIONS UP
TO AROUND 870 MB. THUS EXPECT THE FRONT TO ARRIVE WITH A STRONG
PUNCH ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THUS EXPECT A QUICK DOWNTURN
INTO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT THRU THE LATE
NIGHT WED NIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE THE FAR EAST (TREES) IN BLIZZARD WATCH.

WHILE SNOWFALL WILL END IN ERN ND/RRV WED NIGHT DO LOOK FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION..WHERE TOTAL
NEW SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

THURSDAY SHOULD SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE PRAIRIE
REGION....ERN ND/RRV (ROX-FFM WESTWARD). STRONG COLD ADVECTION
STRONG LAPSE RATES WITH GOOD MIXING OF 50 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SFC SHOULD ENSURE BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT
TIMES...ESP OUT OF TOWN. ANY FALLING SNOWFALL WILL ADD TO THE VSBY
ISSUES. IT WILL BE A FAST MOVING BLIZZARD IN THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY IN THE NORTH AND IN THE EARLY EVENING IN
THE SOUTH.

CONDITIONS MUCH IMPROVED BY 12Z FRI AS SFC HIGH AND CLEARING MOVE
IN WITH LIGHTER WINDS. NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO ERN ND
FRI AFTN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.

FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME THE FA REMAINS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE WEAK SFC LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FRI
NIGHT SO LEFT SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WITH IT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PASS NORTH OF THE FA SUN NIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AGAIN MON AND MON NIGHT. NEITHER SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR PRODUCING MUCH SNOW. THE UP AND DOWN
TEMP PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH WARMER AIR MOVING BACK IN
ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM  CST TUE JAN 14 2014

THE BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING THEN OCCURRING IN ITS
WAKE. SEEING SOME PRETTY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL LAST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY LATE EVENING
AND THEN SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY WED MORNING. WILL ONCE AGAIN
SEE THE WINDS BECOME PRETTY GUSTY BY MID TO LATE WED MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING BACK IN. AT THIS POINT THE LIGHT SNOW LOOKS
TO AFFECT KGFK/KTVF AND KBJI MORE SO THAN KFAR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ038-039-049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-022-027-029-030-040.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013>015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1006 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE CREST OF
A PERSISTENT WEST-COAST UPPER RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DIGGING INTO A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH FORMING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
EACH PIECE OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
MAINTENANCE OF THE TROUGHING...AND SUPPORT SUCCESSIVE INTRUSIONS
OF REINFORCING COLDER AIR INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN THIS PATTERN
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED NEAR THE EAST COAST BUT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH OR IF ANY OF THE COASTAL WAVES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS FOR A
MODERATELY COLDER PERIOD WITH DAILY TEMPERATURES TRENDING LOWER ON
THE WHOLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY LIGHT RAIN COVERS THE CWA SE OF KBFD AND IS ONLY SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE EAST. TIMING ON RECENT HRRR AND RUC RUNS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH GOING GRID POPS...AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS.
TEMPS SHOULD STAY LEVEL OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. A FEW DEG RISE IS POSS IN THE S...AND A FEW DEG FALL IS POSS
IN THE NW WHERE THE COLD AIR IS STARTING TO ARRIVE. WIND SHIFT NOW
PAST BFD AND JST.

PREV...
630AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD BASED ON CONSOBS AND
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WHICH SHOW
SOME LCLY MOD RAINS MOVG ACRS THE SUSQ VLY. ALSO...ISSUED FLW FOR
THE SWATARA CREEK ABOVE MIDDLETOWN. ICE JAM EFFECTS APPARENTLY
CAUSED THE CREEK TO RISE VERY RAPIDLY ABV FS. SEE HYDRO SECTION
FOR DETAILS.

LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE ERN GRT LKS/UPPER OH VLY SWD THRU THE TN VLY
WILL LIFT NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVG ACRS WRN PA...EWD THRU
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. NEAR TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES THE BEST
MSTR/PWATS AND THETA-E ADV HAS SHIFTED E OF THE AREA...BUT THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL WAVE AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TO MAINTAIN PERIODS OF
MAINLY LGT RAIN. DAY 1 QPF AMTS ARE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH. A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THE NW EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS BLYR
TEMPS BECOME MARGINALLY COLD OVER NW PA. THE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA AFT 18Z.

RIDGING SFC/ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE A
MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND ASSOCD HEIGHT FALLS CURRENTLY DIVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL
AMPLIFY A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS ENERGY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER POTENT CLIPPER LOW TRACKING EWD
ACRS LWR MI TO A MEAN POSITION/OCCLUSION INVOF LAKE HURON/SRN
ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. GUIDANCE SHOWS A RIBBON OF LGT PCPN ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE APPLCHNS WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL BE A FACTOR.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MAKE FOR LGT SNOW WITH A COATING
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE PRIMARY PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/CLOSED H5 LOW SHEARS AND
LIFTS NEWD INTO THE LWR LKS...THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGS EWD THRU THE DEEP SOUTH AND TAKES ON A NEG TILT INTO THE SERN
STATES. THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH SMALLER THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. AT THIS
TIME...THE 00Z GFS IS DEFINITELY THE FASTEST WITH THIS UPPER TROF
WHICH IS AGAINST THE MULTI-DAY SPAGHETTI TRENDS WHICH HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE SPREAD
CONTINUES TO BUILD AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST
WITH JET-INDUCED COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT COMMENCING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY 16/1200Z...THE ENSEMBLE LOW PLOTS SHOW A
LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SURFACE LOWS DEPICTED ANYWHERE
WITHIN A 1000 KM RADIUS. INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ARE ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN ESSENTIALLY IN THE CENTER OF THIS SPREAD. IN FACT...THE 00Z
ECMWF IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CLUSTERING WHICH MAKES IT SEEM
LIKE A SLOW OUTLIER. FWIW...TRENDS IN THE 00-06Z GFS/12-00Z GEFS
SEEM TO BE FAVORING A SLOWER SYSTEM WITH A MORE SRN LOW POSITION
AT 16/12Z...WHICH CLUSTERS REASONABLY WELL WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC.
WHILE A CONVERGENCE OF SOLNS MAY BE STARTING TO EMERGE...WILL
EMPLOY A ENSEMBLE/CONSENSUS APPROACH TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST.

CONCERNING QPF POTENTIAL...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A QPF AXIS
JUST AHEAD OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT
OR NEAR/JUST E OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE FROM THE MTNS OF WV/VA
NEWD INTO NERN PA. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WHICH RESULTED IN A RELATIVELY NARROW SWATH OF VERY
LGT SNOW ACCUMS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH FROM THE S-CNTRL MTNS
INTO THE SRN POCONOS.

THE PATTERN NEARLY REPEATS ITSELF INTO DAY 3/THURS AS RIDGING SFC
AND ALOFT AGAIN GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND
BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVG INTO THE GRT LKS. BY DAY 4/FRI THE
MODEL SPREAD IS CLEARLY EVIDENT...WITH THE GFS AND NAM
REPRESENTING THE TWO TIMING EXTREMES (GFS FASTEST/NAM SLOWEST).
THEREFORE WPC LEANED ON THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SOME BROAD SUPPORT
FROM THE CMC. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING IN TERMS
OF QPF AND POTENTIAL SNOWAMT FRI NGT BUT CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER
THAN ON DAYS 2-3.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 14/00Z GFS-ECMWF CAMPS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY
SATURDAY WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SFC FEATURES...WHICH ONLY GETS
WORSE WITH TIME. DESPITE THIS...THERE REMAINS DECENT AGREEMENT ON
A LONGWAVE SIGNAL WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUING TO
MAINTAIN/OCCASIONALLY AMPLIFY A MEAN ERN TROUGH. THE 500MB FLOW
APPEARS TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OR
TWO CLIPPERS STREAKING BY TO THE NORTH. A MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH IS
PROJECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY COLDER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE RAIN AND FOG HAVE NOT BEEN
VERY DETRIMENTAL TO THE VISBYS BUT FOR ONLY A SHORT TIME AT JST.

EXPECT ANY IFR CIGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND THE OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. SHOWERS WILL
LAST WELL INTO MID DAY IN EASTERN AREAS...WHILE ENDING DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING IN THE WEST. BFD SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH FINISHED
WITH PRECIP FOR THE DAY.

BRIEF RIDGING VISITS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE
NEXT WEAK FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROBABLY WILL
ALLOW CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
KEEP WESTERN MOUNTAIN IN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERED CIGS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY MAKE IT MORE SNOW THAN RAIN BUT A MIX IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR CIGS/-SHRASN LIKELY W MTNS.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...MVFR CIGS/-SHSN LIKELY W MTNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLW STILL RUNNING FOR THE SWATARA CREEK ABOVE MIDDLETOWN. WHILE IT
HAS GONE BELOW FLOOD AND CAUTION STAGES FOR THE MOMENT...WILL KEEP
THE FLW GOING FOR JUST A BIT LONGER TO ALLOW FOR ANY REJUVINATION
OF THE CLOG DOWNSTREAM. BOTH HARRISBURG AND MIDDLETOWN GAGES ARE
CURRENTLY FALLING THOUGH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU
HYDROLOGY...CTP










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 113 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT CROSSES TENNESSEE. EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO BRING MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 110 AM EST TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  THEREFORE
OPTED NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POPS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM
AS THEY LOOK IN LINE WITH THE LATEST TRENDS.  WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITS INTO THE CENTRAL NC PIEDMONT AND SC
MIDLANDS/LOWCOUNTRY PER LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT.
OTHERWISE... TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

630 PM UPDATE...AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE PREFRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN HAS NOW
TRANSLATED EAST AND IS SET TO AFFECT MAINLY THE PIEDMONT. SW FLOW
STILL SUGGESTED BY POSITION OF TROUGH ON WV IMAGERY AND IS SEEN IN
LOWER LEVELS ON VAD WINDS FROM RADAR ACRS THE AREA. DPVA AHEAD OF
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN HALF
OF TENN AND NRN ALABAMA. THUS EVEN AREAS WEST OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND
STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING RAINFALL. LATEST RAP QPF SUGGESTS
THE BAND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE...BUT WITH SW FLOW
CONTINUING AND THE S/W STILL MOVING IN...PRECIP IS REINTRODUCED FROM
THE WEST.

AS OF 215 PM...A 500 MB POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE AREA. A BAND OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL WORK ACRS THE
CWFA FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FORCED MAINLY
BY RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT UPR DIVERGENCE AND LLVL ISENT LIFT. THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR BETTER RAIN RATES APPEAR TO BE WEAK MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT WILL BE SIPHONED OFF BY
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST. GIVEN THE STRONG UPR SUPPORT...WILL
CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT...WITH QPF IN THE TENTH
TO QUARTER INCH RANGE. SWLY FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS MAY SEE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. LLVL CAA WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SO A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ABOVE 3500 FT...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUM IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP.

UPR JET AND SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND END TO PRECIP. THICKNESSES
FALL LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIKELY CANCELING
OUT LLVL CAA. SO I BLENDED IN THE WARMER MET FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DEEP UPPER TROFFING DIGGING DOWN OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
STEEP UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. THE TROF AXIS WILL
LIKELY AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD MOVE OVER
THE CWFA BY EARLY THURS. AS THE AXIS LIFTS NE OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROF IS REINFORCED AND DEEPENS AGAIN JUST TO
OUR WEST AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWFA
EARLY WED MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS SURGE
OF COLD AIR WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
MTNS BY DAYBREAK...WITH FCST PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND FCST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN OR SNOW EVENT. THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH A
TRANSITION TO A NW FLOW SNOW SCENARIO EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED FOR THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES THRU THURS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
COOL MARKEDLY BEHIND THE FROPA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP QUITE A BIT WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL BE COLD LATE WED/EARLY THURS BUT HAVE BEEN
INCREASED A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. MINS IN THE
TEENS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE VALUES IN
THE MID TO LOW 20S ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEX
WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME LINGERING NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE CWFA...AND SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY 12Z OR SO. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MID JAN WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT WARMING AT LEAST A
CATEGORY AS THICKNESSES BEGIN TO REBOUND AS WE MOVE INTO FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EST MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE STARTS WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. WPC
COMMENTED THAT THEY FAVOR SLOWER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING WITH THIS  PATTERN...THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THEY
APPEAR TO HAVE GONE WITH A SERIES OF ENSEMBLE BLENDS FOR THE
EXTENDED RANGE. THE 12 UTC OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS NOW QUITE A BIT
SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE 12 UTC GFS WITH ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
LONG WAVE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A
SHOT OF STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FA...INDUCING SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OVER WRN NC FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IN TURN BRINGS PCPN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE NC ZONES. THE GFS IS SO MUCH
FARTHER EAST THAT MOST OF IT/S PCPN RESULTS FROM NW FLOW SNOW. I/M
NOT GOING TO JUMP ON THE NEW ECMWF SOLUTION JUST YET CONSIDERING HOW
MUCH DRIER THE GFS IS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF QPF WOULD IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY. I/LL ADD A
TAG FOR MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NC MTNS TO THE HWO FOR
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AND PERHAPS EVEN LIFR AT
CHARLOTTE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH
LOW END VFR CIGS KEEPING -RA DUE TO WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.  PER LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO SATURATE FURTHER.  AROUND THE 10Z
TIMEFRAME...GUIDANCE AGAIN INDICATES FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CIGS
TO IFR LEVELS AS THE HEAVIER RA MOVES OUT ALLOWING THE NEAR SURFACE
LAYERS TO SETTLE/CONDENSE.  THUS...PREVAILED -SHRA WITH AN MVFR VISB
AND AN IFR CIG AT 008FT WITH BR.  FURTHERMORE...PREVIOUS TAF HAD
PROB30 FOR LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW IN
THE MORNING.  HAD TO MAKE A DECISION ON THIS AND SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
ABOUT 50/50 WENT WITH A TEMPO FOR 3SM VISB AND 003FT LIFR CIG.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO MVFR AROUND THE 16Z TIMEFRAME AND REACHING SOLID VFR BY AROUND
18Z.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WITH
INCREASING FLOW BY LATE MORNING WHERE WINDS VEER TO THE NW AROUND
8-10KTS WITH 15-18KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.  ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...HAD TO
LEAVE OFF DUE TO LINE RESTRAINTS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO ADD THAT WINDS
WILL BACK SOUTHERLY YET AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WAVE
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR/IFR TO POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATED.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION PUSHES EAST ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
-SHRA.  IN RESPONSE...THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL LIKELY SETTLE SOMEWHAT
AND REMAIN SATURATED.  THEREFORE...BROUGHT ALL SITES DOWN TO IFR BY
AROUND DAYBREAK WITH A 4HR TEMPO AT EACH SITE FOR POSSIBLE LIFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS.  FOG WILL ALSO PRESENT AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AMIDST THE
-SHRA THUS ADDED MENTION OF REDUCED VISB AT ALL SITES.  CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR PREVAILING BY AROUND NOON.  LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE MORNING HOURS AT ALL SITES
AND WILL PREVAIL FROM THE NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY BACKING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WAVE NEAR THE END OF
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
OVER SOME OF THE AREA WITH THIS NEXT FRONT. YET ANOTHER FRONT MAY
ONCE AGAIN BRING PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS TO THE MTNS FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   73%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  81%     MED   65%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  80%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  87%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CDG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 1027 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

SOME CHANGES TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST BASED UPON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND RAP/HRRR DEPICTION. AS NOTED BELOW...THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM ADVECTION HAS PRIMARILY SHIFTED INTO THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE 900 MB FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN THE
BUFFALO RIDGE AND MINNESOTA RIVER...SOME LIGHTS NOW COULD STILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT BETTER CHANCE
REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST. INSTEAD...LOOKING AT THE MAIN FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD INTO IOWA. EXPECT A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION...SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...TO CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE OVER CENTRAL SD THROUGH 03Z AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. TO THE NORTH OF THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM...AM EXPECTING THAT A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL SET UP PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE LIGHT AND...EXCEPT IN SW MN WHERE
DURATION MAY BE FOR A FEW HOURS...THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL
KEEP AMOUNTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...THAT IS A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING THE PTYPE WILL BE DRIVEN BY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. IN OTHER WORDS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING
IT WILL EITHER BE RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW WHILE WHERE IT IS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IT WILL BE ALL SNOW. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING 925 MB
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT THAT AS
PRECIPITATION STARTS AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST...MOST
AREAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND COLD AIR MOVES SOUTH...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AND CHANGE IT TO SNOW. FOR THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...THE COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY LAG FAR ENOUGH BEHIND
THE PRECIPITATION TO KEEP IT ALL RAIN. IN SW MN...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE SNOW ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY START AS A MIX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS EVENING AS MODELS HAVING A PRETTY
DIFFICULT TIME DETERMINING PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTPUT WHICH CORRELATES MORE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MAIN REASONS ARE THAT THE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS ALREADY NORTH OF THE CWA AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO...SO
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING WEIGH HEAVILY UPON
GETTING ANYTHING TO DEVELOP AS A VORTICITY LOBE MOVES FROM THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. NOT BANKING ON MUCH
FROM THIS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND RAP ARE PRETTY EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WITHIN THIS LOCATION. WITH LITTLE OR NO LOW
AND MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND A FAIRLY DRY LOWER LAYER
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION SHOULD BE PRETTY DIFFICULT TO COME BY. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EVERYWHERE. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WHICH
HAS ALLOWED THE WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FARTHER
NORTHEAST....WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE 925MB FRONT AND ALREADY MOVING
INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SO...HAVE MOVED THE START TIME OF THE
ADVISORY TO 6Z WHICH CORRELATES MORE TO THE INCREASE IN NORTHWEST
WINDS WHICH IF WE HAVE ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND WOULD START TO BLOW
AROUND.

TEMPERATURES STEADY TO FALLING ON TUESDAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA LOOKS SOLID AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 45
TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE QUICK DOWNTREND ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEDGE OF CLEARING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS. WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP FAIRLY COOL
WITH 925 HPA COLD PUSH -12 TO -16C IN THE EASTERN HALF. SOME LOWS
DOWN CLOSER TO ZERO NEAR AND ADVANCE OF RIDGE AXIS...BUT SOME
LINGERING GRADIENT IN THE FAR EAST MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT
THAT...ESPECIALLY IF SHORT TERM SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK
DISAPPOINTING IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS.

STRONG WAVE WILL START TO MOVE INTO AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/CANADIAN BORDER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. GANGLY WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD WILL TRUDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
A CONSENSUS OF NEAR THE I29 CORRIDOR BY 00Z THU. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL DEVELOP A STOUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH A
WESTERLY PUSH OF WARMER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. NOW LOOKING
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH NET LIFT WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE
TO WARRANT A CHANCE LEVEL MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW EVOLVING AS
BOUNDARY WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE SOME BETTER SUPPORT TO DEEPER DIV Q. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS EARLY ON...BUT SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST
LATER IN THE DAY...OR AT A MINIMUM A THINNING TO HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS. ONE SHORTCOMING THAT LOOKED TO BE A FACTOR IN THE MODELS
WAS ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND RAISED
TEMPS OVER GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN IN THE WEST...BACK CLOSER TO WHERE
PREVIOUS FORECAST RESIDED.

STILL LOOKING TO THE WIND THREAT THURSDAY AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ISSUE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
THE ABSOLUTE STRONGEST WINDS TIED TO WHEN LARGEST LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC SUPPORT FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL INITIATE...WITH UP TO 12H
DIFFERENCE BRACKETING SOLUTIONS OF NAM /SLOWEST/ TO GFS /FASTEST/.
AT THIS POINT...MAY SEE A LITTLE PARTIAL DECOUPLING IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVERNIGHT WHEN LIKELY TO GET SOME CONTINUED RISING TEMPS IN
THE EAST FOR A WHILE INTO THE NIGHT. MAY LIMIT SPEED POTENTIAL A
BIT...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO
GET COUPLING TO KICK IN THOUGH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTING
AFTER 06Z. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE
WITH MIXING OF +2 TO -2 925 HPA TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. WITH
45 TO 55 KNOTS IN THE MID TO UPPER MIXED LAYER...WOULD PUT
PROSPECT OF NEEDING A HIGH WIND WATCH TO BE QUITE HIGH. FOR
NOW...WILL WORK THROUGH CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS FIRST BEFORE
COMPLICATING MATTERS WITH THE NEXT...BUT CONTINUE TO HIT MENTION
HARD IN WEATHER STORY/HWO/SOCIAL MEDIA.

HAVE PUSHED MENTION TO LIGHT SNOW UP TOWARD LOWER LIKELY POPS IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND TRIED TO TIME WITH AN EC/18Z
GFS CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS BEEN TREND IN MAJORITY SOLUTIONS TODAY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH VISIBILITY ISSUES AS WELL...AS WILL BE QUITE
LOW AT TIMES OF ANY FALLING SNOW...BUT NOT SURE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH SNOW FROM EARLIER TO MAKE WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW A LARGE
ENOUGH THREAT. DID CONTINUE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY OF BLOWING
SNOW. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS STARTING TO FALL DURING THE
DAY... WHICH BY EVENING WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME
-20 TO -25 WIND CHILLS IN AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. COLD AIR DIGS INTO THE EASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AND WILL GO
WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS EAST TO LOWER 30S WEST AS ANOTHER RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LITTLE TO HANG ONES HAT ON AS FAR AS TIMING OR LOCATION OF
FEATURES IN THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. SHOULD TO CONTINUE
TO SEE A CLIPPERY NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WITH RIDGE AXIS NUDGING
EAST...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WILL BE LEFT TO A CHASE OF THE
POTENTIAL NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ONE PERIOD TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY... AND WITH STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION IN TYPES OF
SYSTEM... WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME MIXED TYPE PRECIPITATION IF
SUCH A SOLUTION WOULD EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

FOR AVIATION INTERESTS...IT APPEARS THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE
OVER SW MN...WHERE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN.
OTHERWISE...FOR TAF LOCATIONS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
RAIN OVER NIGHT AT KFSD AND KHON BUT ANY PCPN WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED AND THE DURATION WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT SUCH THAT DID
NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING 2000 TO 3000 FT CIGS OVER CENTRAL ND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL SD AND TRAJECTORIES BRING THESE CLOUDS TO KHON
AROUND 06Z AND KFSD AROUND 08Z. STRONG FLOW AND SOME MIXING WILL
HELP TO ADVECT CLOUDS EAST AND SLOWLY RAISE CIGS TUESDAY MORNING
SO THAT EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATE IN THE MORNING.
WINDS EXPECTED TO ALSO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KTS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ038-039-050-052>071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ040.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ098.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-081-089-090-097.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 959 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A NICE DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SUNSHINE THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS
HELPING TEMPS WARM QUICKLY. CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE
STARTING TO MOVE INTO NE ARKANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR KEEPS THIS PRECIP NORTH OF THE TN/MS
BORDER SO DECREASED POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MS AND SE WEST TN
THIS AFTERNOON OTRW FORECAST LOOKS GREAT.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014/

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE NORTH WITH 40S
TO THE SOUTH. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US. THE COLD FRONT THAT AFFECTED US YESTERDAY HAS QUICKLY MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST COAST AND A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY DROPPED
DOWN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTERLY AND APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.

SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SEND TWO
COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS.TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY SHOULD WARM RATHER QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MILD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
AND POSSIBLY SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. NNW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH SUSTAINED 10 TO 20 MPH
THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY COOL.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A FAIRLY STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG CAA AND DECENT LIFT WILL
LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MOISTURE WILL BE
EXTREMELY LIMITED...SO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT OF THE GROUND BEING TOO WARM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR...OF THE CANADIAN KIND WILL FUNNEL
INTO THE MID-SOUTH. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DURING THE DAYTIME. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
QUICKLY MODIFIED BY THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINANT. THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WELL. ANOTHER STRONG
ARCTIC FRONT...ALSO LACKING ANY KIND OF REAL MOISTURE...WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS AIRMASS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AND DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY OF FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW QUICKLY
THE AIRMASS WILL WARM THIS WEEKEND. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT BREAK FROM THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN HINTING AT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN RETURNING BY MID TO LATE
WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AVERAGING BETWEEN 10-12
KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND LOWER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SWITCH
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD BE MID AFTERNOON AT KJBR...LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT
KMEM AND KMKL...AND THIS EVENING AT KTUP. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  58  29  40  29 /  20  20  10   0
MKL  57  27  37  22 /  20  20  10   0
JBR  55  27  39  26 /  20  10  10   0
TUP  60  30  41  24 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 618 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ONE
TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WESTERN EDGE OF SHORT WAVE ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND BETTER COVERAGE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW ON THE RADAR HAD REACHED
CLAYTOR LAKE...GALAX AND WILKESBORO AS OF 6PM. HAVE INCREASES
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. ADVISORY
IN TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED. LITTLE FORCING ASIDE
FROM UPSLOPE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IN THE AREA OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES IS OVER. ADDITIONAL LIGHT AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
NEIGHBORING GRAYSON COUNTY VA. HERE A BRIEF AND RELATIVELY WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOWFALL UNTIL THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD OF THIS AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN THIS AREA BECAUSE OF
THIS...AND ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO CANCEL IF NEED BE BASED UPON
THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT
SNOW OR A MIX OF THE TWO THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM ROUGHLY FLOYD VA NORTH TO NEAR LEXINGTON VA. HERE AMOUNTS WILL
APPROACH ONE INCH OF SNOW AT ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE ROUGHLY 2000
FEET MSL.

ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST AREAS WILL BE TOO MILD FOR ALL SNOW...BUT
MORE LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREA OVER SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE
LIGHT...AND BE FIGHTING WITH THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATE. VERY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR TRACE AMOUNTS AT BEST.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FROM TODAY...AND THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE WE EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE WILL
BE A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH A LONG WAVE FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS PATTERN WILL
SUBJECT OUR FORECAST AREA TO A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COLDEST OF THE AIR...M14
TO M16 DEG C...IS FCST TO MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S ON SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

PRECIPITATION THREAT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.  TWO CLIPPERS ARE FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS
THE AREA.  THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...THE
SECOND SYSTEM TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK SATURDAY NIGHT.   THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE ARE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY
FRIDAY.  CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY...BUT THINK THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 1-3
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...THE MTNS OF FAR
SOUTHWESTERN VA...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE
PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH WIND
CHILLS NEAR ZERO.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO COME QUICK ON THE HEELS OF
FRIDAY NIGHTS WINTRY BLAST...WITH REPEAT THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT OFFERING ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN THE FAVORED HIGHLAND AREAS WHICH ARE PRONE TO THESE
NORTHWEST FLOW SORT OF SYSTEMS.  EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...BUT THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING OF THE WIND TENDS TO
ELIMINATE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR SEEING ANYTHING MEASURABLE THERE. IN
ORDER TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE SYSTEM
WOULD NEED TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRACK
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...TAKING THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
THE MASON DIXON.  THIS SORT OF TRACK WOULD SUGGEST THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THREAT WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA FROM PENNSYLVANIA
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

CLIPPER LOW DARTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...LEAVING A GOOD
BURST OF WIND AND SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE COLD
AIR AS IT CROSSES INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND PIEDMONT. SOME 40KT
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW NC INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
BOUNDARY CROSSES...AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN GREENBRIER AND BATH
COUNTY. WAA AND WINDS REMAINING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MEANS A WELL
MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND MIN TEMPS POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
EVEN MORE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER WITH MANY 50F MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE GREENBRIER VALLEY WILL BE STUNTED
SOMEWHAT BY LATE ARRIVING CLOUDS. MORE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY DAYS
LIKE THIS AND SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS MAY BEGIN TO MOUNT.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT SLATED FOR TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT...THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN UNCHARACTERISTICALLY
SUBPAR SINCE ITS LATEST UPDATE...AND A LITTLE HESITANT TO TRUST IT
OVER THE GFS ATTM. NONETHELESS...-20C H85 AIR MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. UP FOR DEBATE
IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE MAIN WAVE DIVES...WHICH HAS A LOT TO DUE WITH
ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. REGARDLESS THERE STILL WILL BE AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF THE FRONT IS
SLOWER...WHICH IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS DEEP INTO THE
FORECAST...THEN TUESDAY COULD STILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR ALL
AREAS OUTSIDE OF SE WEST VA. HEART OF THE COLDEST AIR IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE TEENS ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SE WEST VA.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WILL LEAN ON LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MESO MODEL RUNS FOR TIMING OF
CIGS/WX. BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT EXTENDING DOWN
FROM CLIPPER IN THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEEN MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS
EWD AND EXPECTING IT TO BREAK UP IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS REGAIN SOME VIGOR AS IT INTERACTS WITH
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST LATE. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THEY BECOME
NWLY/NLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BEGIN TO SLACKEN AND BACK
TOMORROW.

BELIEVE KBLF/KLWB WILL SEE BEST SHOT OF -SHSN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL STAY WITH UPSLOPE -SHSN AND NO BETTER THAN MVFR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KBCB TO SEE MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
-SHSN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
WAITING UNTIL THE SHARP UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
KROA SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR THIS EVENING.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT KDAN WERE HANGING TOUGH AT ISSUANCE TIME BUT VIS
SAT LOOP WAS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE CLOUDS. BELIEVE
THE IFR AT KDAN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE
TAF. KDAN/KLYH WILL STAY VFR EARLY BUT AS THE WEAK FRONT MAKES IT
TO THE PIEDMONT...EXPECTING SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
THROUGH JUST ABOUT DAYBREAK. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT
SHOWERS TO BEGIN AS LIQUID WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEM RACING
THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT ONE EVERY TWO DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH THESE FEATURES
FOLLOWED BY A VFR CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...MBS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 249 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A much quieter weather pattern will continue to develop over the
Inland Northwest as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the
Inland Northwest. While fairly benign weather is expected, areas
of fog will be possible each morning through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...The Inland Northwest remains on the eastern
fringes of a building ridge, with northwest flow remaining for the
remainder of the day. Very light snow showers continue over the
highest elevations of the Idaho Panhandle, but little in the way
of accumulations are expected. Snow shower chances will remain for
the afternoon over these same locations as a shortwave rounds the
top of the ridge.

We continue to monitor the development of stratus and fog this
morning. The winds have calmed considerably over most locations
early this morning, but have remained up enough that fog and
stratus development has been delayed. Stratus has finally
developed over far eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle near
and north of I-90 (and moving westward). A quick look over area web
cams doesn`t show much in the way of fog, keeping most of it low
stratus so far. While patchy fog is possible this morning,
especially with winds becoming fairly light and the boundary layer
saturating, it might be a little too late for any fog of
significance. Better chances for fog will occur Tuesday night as
the ridge builds even further inland and temperature inversions
strengthen.

The thinking is that much less mixing combined with the cloud
cover will keep most areas cooler this afternoon than yesterday.
However, places like Omak, Wenatchee, and Moses lake will be on
the fringes of the cloud cover, so less cloud cover may lead to a
warmer forecast by a few degrees. ty

Wednesday through Saturday...Strong high pressure aloft will
dominate the Inland Northwest promoting strengthening temperature
inversions. Under the inversion expect increasing areas of stratus
and fog in the valleys while the mountains will be mostly clear
and mild for this time of year. Precise depth of stratus is where
the most uncertainty lies with GFS model soundings indicating the
potential for some break up of the stratus each afternoon and thus
forecast still calls for a 10-15 diurnal temperature swing between
low and high temperatures. However given the low January sun angle
and quite a bit of boundary layer moisture present its possible
that some areas will stay in the stratus all day and night. Where
this occurs expected actual conditions to be warmer than forecast
at night and cooler than forecast during the day making the
precise temperature forecast more uncertain. JW

Saturday night through Tuesday...Models in decent agreement that a
strong 500 mb ridge will remain parked over the region through
this period...however some guidance is still hinting at a weak
shortwave trough moving through ridge Saturday night/Sunday. The
ECMWF has backed off on this notion a bit from the previous run
and leaves the Canadian as the deepest outlier. Given the strength
of the longwave ridge...the drier solutions are most likely the
way to trend. We will keep some small pops in the forecast...but
given the weakening trend and swift easterly track most will
either be intercepted by the Cascade crest or the northern
mountains. Whether or not this system amounts to much...it will be
rapidly followed by more amplification of the ridge for a good
shot of dry weather into early next week as well as mild
temperatures (at least for the mountains). By Tuesday the model
consistency begins to falter as the ECMWF shows a potent shortwave
trough crossing the ridge while the GEM shows a much weaker
shortwave and the GFS shows barely a ripple of a disturbance
tracking through central BC. Since that is so far out into the
forecast...we will trend toward climatology across the far
northern zones...and keep the southern half of the forecast area
generally dry. Temperatures will remain tricky in the valleys as
high temperatures will depend on the ability to mix out any
inversions which are likely to form. Since winds in this pattern
are expected to be light...the mixing potential should be
low...especially if widespread stratus and fog is able to develop.
We will generally utilize a temperature forecast near or slightly
above normal in the valleys...and keep things well above normal
over the mountains. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Main aviation impacts through 23z will be incr threat for
stratus along the WA/ID border then spreading west toward Moses
Lake.  Models are overdoing the boundary layer moisture at this hour
so delayed the timing of stratus and also raised cigs frm previous
fcst based on obs vcnty KCOE.  High Res HRRR does not support
restrictions anywhere in the forecast area but BUFKIT/MOS do and
opted to keep fcst trends this direction as winds decr near 10kts
and swing arnd to the S/SE.  Following a short break in the stratus
Tue aftn...areas of low clouds and fg will return arnd 06z Wed.  /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  29  40  27  38  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  28  42  27  39  26 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  31  44  31  44  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       50  30  47  30  44  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       39  28  37  25  36  24 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      39  29  39  26  37  24 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        40  29  39  29  39  28 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     48  25  44  25  42  23 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      47  26  43  26  40  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           44  25  37  24  36  23 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 950 PM PST Mon Jan 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
One last evening of breezy winds and lingering mountain
snow/valley rain showers today before a much quieter weather
pattern develops over the Inland Northwest. A ridge of high
pressure will develop on Tuesday, with dry weather persisting into
the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Minor update to the forecast to adjust winds and
lower Pops/QPF. Winds are decreasing this evening as cross CWA
pressure gradients rapidly diminish from near 20mb this afternoon
toward 9mb as of 8PM. There are still a few isolated windy spots
in the East Slopes of the Cascades which could be dealing with
somewhat of a mountain wave given the sharp inversion noted on the
KUIL sounding and NAM forecast cross section through the Cascades.
Entiat RAWS was blowing around 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph with
subtle weakening this last hour. Further north, the Aeneas and
Leecher RAWS were also gusting into the 55 mph range but each have
since diminished considerably.

Northwest flow into the ID Panhandle and Cascade Crest continues
to bring scattered light showers with spotty 0.01" here and there.
Most cams suggest this is mainly in the form of flurries which
is supported by the lack of moisture in the dendritic layer.
Consequently, Pops have been reduced but weren`t very high to
start with.  /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Main aviation impacts through 23z will be incr threat for
stratus along the WA/ID border then spreading west toward Moses
Lake.  Models are overdoing the boundary layer moisture at this hour
so delayed the timing of stratus and also raised cigs frm previous
fcst based on obs vcnty KCOE.  High Res HRRR does not support
restrictions anywhere in the forecast area but BUFKIT/MOS do and
opted to keep fcst trends this direction as winds decr near 10kts
and swing arnd to the S/SE.  Following a short break in the stratus
Tue aftn...areas of low clouds and fg will return arnd 06z Wed.  /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        32  43  27  40  25  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  32  43  26  42  25  38 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        34  47  30  44  30  44 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       34  50  29  47  29  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       31  39  29  37  22  35 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      33  39  29  39  24  36 /  10  10  10  10  10   0
Kellogg        33  40  29  39  28  38 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  46  24  44  22  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      30  44  25  43  24  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           28  39  23  37  21  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 553 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

HAVE REDUCED POP FORECASTS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 14.06Z NAM...14.08Z HRRR AND
RADAR TRENDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT BAND OF SNOW HAS PROGRESSED
THROUGH ALMOST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE DEFORMATION
BAND SITTING UP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. ALREADY SIGNS THAT THE
DEFORMATION BAND TRYING TO DROP SOUTH SOME ON MPX RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

AT 3 AM...A 998 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MANKATO
MINNESOTA. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS LOW AND JUST EAST OF THERE
ARE REPORTS OF SNOW. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A
MILE NEAR ST CLOUD MINNESOTA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...THE WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASED INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

THE 14.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 THIS MORNING...AND EAST TO
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY 15.00Z. THIS IS A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AND MUCH SLOWER TRACK THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN IN 13.00Z AND 13.12Z
MODEL RUNS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A DEFORMATION BAND EXTENDS
WESTWARD ABOUT 300 MILES. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THIS LONGER DURATION MEANT THAT THE SNOW TOTALS
ALSO HAD TO BE INCREASED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE THIS AREA WILL SEE SNOW TOTALS IN THE 5 TO 7 INCH
RANGE. AS A RESULT...UPGRADED THE CLARK..TAYLOR...JACKSON...
JUNEAU...AND ADAMS COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WE ALSO
EXTENDED THE END TIME OF THE WARNING AND ADVISORY IN WISCONSIN
BACK TO EITHER 15.00Z OR 15.06Z. ADAMS AND JUNEAU COUNTIES WILL
SEE THEIR WARNING EXTEND THE LONGEST TO THE DEFORMATION BAND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.

WITH A STRONG FALL SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA THIS MORNING AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY. WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THESE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IN THESE AREAS. SINCE THE WINDS ARE SLOWER AT
SLACKENING...EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS
UNTIL 15.00Z. FURTHER NORTH THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 MPH
FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE 15.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE RAISED A BIT MORE. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES /UP TO 70 PERCENT/ WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO AN
INCH SNOW. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO AN INCH.

ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER THAN EITHER THE NAM...GEM...OR ECMWF. SINCE THE GFS
LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER...TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE LATTER
MODELS. BEHIND THIS WAVE...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION... THE TROPOPAUSE WILL
DROP DOWN TO 700 MB. THIS RESULTS IN RAPID INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE AND THE WINDS WILL GUST TO 45 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO AND
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WILL PRODUCE WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE -20 TO -25 RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

OVERALL THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS RESULTS
IN LESS SNOW FOR THE TAF SITES OVERALL...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW REMAINS AND THE WINDS LOOK STRONGER. THIS MEANS MORE BLOWING
SNOW POTENTIAL. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

VISIBILITIES SHOULD CLIMB FROM IFR TO MVFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AT BOTH TAF SITES...THEN REMAIN NEAR THERE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THEN SNOW OVER THE TWIN CITIES LOOKS TO DROP DOWN OVER THE TAF
SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING VISIBILITIES BACK DOWN TO
IFR. THE WHOLE SNOW AREA SHOULD PULL OUT BETWEEN 22-23Z...ALLOWING
VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. THE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOWED
DOWN BY BLOWING SNOW...BUT THINK BY 01-02Z VISIBILITIES WILL HAVE
CLIMBED TO VFR. CEILINGS...ON THE OTHER HAND...LOOK TO CLIMB FROM
IFR/LIFR CURRENTLY TO MVFR BY NOON...THEN STAY THERE THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GUSTING TO 35 KT AT RST BY 13Z AND 30 KT AT LSE BY 16Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ032-
     033-041-042-053>055-061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ043-044.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017-029-
     034.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 358 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN QUICKLY RETURN FOR
SATURDAY...WHILE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND DEEP LAYERED MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS
POISED TO SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
WITH IMPRESSIVE PVA NOTED ON THE LATEST RUC40 300MB-700MB 2 HOUR
PROG AT 08Z THIS MORNING. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING OVER THE GULF
STREAM EAST OF CHARLESTON ALONG THE FRONT WITH BACK EDGE OF THE
CLEARING LINE MOVING IN ON THE I-95 CORRIDOR. RADAR INDICATES AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN FROM THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS TO THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA WITH THE BAND SLIPPING OFF TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COOL UNDER THE CLOUD SHIELD BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA...FALLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S UNDER THE SCATTERED
CLOUDS/CLEAR SKIES TO THE W OF SAVANNAH. LATEST RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LIQUID
AS IT MOVES OUT. MEASURABLE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE FOR 2-3 MORE HOURS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL SCOOT QUICKLY AWAY AFTER
DAWN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW GOING ZONAL RAPIDLY BY 18Z AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE SQUEEZES UNDER THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE AFTER THE EXODUS OF
THE EARLY MORNING SYSTEM AS STRONG UPPER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS THROUGH
A DRY DEEP LAYERED ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST HIGHS MANY AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 TODAY BUT OF
NOTE WAS NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE COMING IN 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE AND QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS. WE
BUMPED OUR MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO IN SOME AREAS BUT MAINTAINED
SIMILAR TRENDS TOWARD A MUCH COOLER DAY THE LOW TO MID 60S SEEN ON
WEDNESDAY.

TRICKY TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AS FIRST GLANCE HAD US WONDERING IF
OUR LOWS ARE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT
RADIATIONAL SETUP. LOW LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
WE ADJUSTED SOME NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TO TREND BUT DID NOT OPT FOR READINGS SEEN IN THE 00Z CO-
OP MOS GUIDANCE WHICH WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AT PLACES SUCH AS
ALLENDALE AND ROCKY FORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT. THE CORRELATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATE
IN THE DAY. SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION COULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY...YET
STILL ONLY PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SUGGESTS KEEPING RAIN CHANCES BELOW
15 PERCENT ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST INCREASING SKY COVER ACCOMPANYING
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM. A STRONG SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL BE PASSING OFFSHORE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL THUS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO REBUILD FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...YET QUICKLY
BECOME SUPPRESSED OVERNIGHT BY ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERING A COLD
AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS THE CONSISTENTLY
REINFORCED LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT...TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY COULD BE QUITE COLD. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WHEN ALSO
FACTORING IN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WIND
CHILLS COULD BE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S. NIGHTTIME LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH
SUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S.

SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO PSEUDO-ZONAL...AND WITH
THESE CHANGES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO PEAK 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER CLEARING
SKIES...WITH RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...YET
GRADUALLY BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF A FRONTAL TROUGH LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE BRIEF ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION BACK INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETUP. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT REGARDING THE TIMING OF AN EARLY WEEK
FRONT...INDICATING ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HAVE ADVERTISED MORE MILD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 60S...BEFORE
INDICATING ANOTHER COOLING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BECOME QUITE COLD BEHIND THE
FRONT...FALLING INTO THE 20 DEGREE RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERHAPS THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DYNAMIC DURING THE EARLY AND MID WEEK PERIOD...MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WITH ANY FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED TO CAP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END AT KCHS BY DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CAROLINA COAST AND ALL OF
GEORGIA/S WATERS. ISALLOBARIC PRES RISES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE TO THIS POINT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BUT THE NAM PROGS
1 MB/HOUR THROUGH 12Z AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST
ANALYSIS.

STRONGEST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR SEAWARD FROM THE SAVANNAH
PILOT BUOY TO GRAYS REEF WITH NW FLOW 20 KT GUST 30 KT AT TIMES.
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS FROM WIND WAVE WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ADVECTION PATTERN DIMINISHES AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN
THE WAKE OF THE BIG UPPER TROUGH. AN OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT MAINLY
IN THE 15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MARINE
ZONES ON FRIDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SUBSEQUENT
COLD ADVECTION AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THUS THE LULL IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIDDAY SATURDAY
WILL END BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF THE WATERS GOING
BACK TOWARD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 441 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR EAST ON
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DECIDED ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE DOWNEAST AND COAST THIS
MORNING AFTER COORDINATING W/GYX. THANKS FOR THE HEADS UP MIKE.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE THE BIG DEAL THIS MORNING W/AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AT TIMES ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS PASSING ACROSS WESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT
SNOW. THE HRRR AND NAM WERE DOING WELL W/THE CLOUDS AND FOG AS
WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
UP THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR BLACK ICE THIS MORNING AND REFREEZING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
THIS MORNING TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE. CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO LIFT LATER THIS MORNING BUT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HANG ON A WHILE LONGER THIS MORNING
W/A LIGHT SSE WIND.

ATTENTION TURNS TO ANOTHER S/WV EXPECTED TO MOVE UP ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRES AT THE SFC PASSES
SE OF THE REGION. THE NAM HAS THIS FEATURE HANDLED WELL AS OF 06Z
AS IT WAS SETTING OFF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NYS AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
THIS FEATURE WILL SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DECIDED TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES UP TO 40% W/SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF POSSIBLY AN INCH OR LESS. THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME
TONIGHT AS AIR AND SFC TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN. QPF AMOUNTS ATTM
ARE FCST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" W/A SNOW RATIO OF 10-12:1.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR THE MAXES TODAY W/LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. THE MINS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN
HOW THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING LOW THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
UNTIL THE UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST, SEE NO REASON FOR A
DRAMATIC COOLDOWN UNTIL AFTER FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN
THE LONG TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY WILL BE A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
FROM TIME TO TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BE
TURNING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR ESPECIALLY FOR KBGR AND KBHB THIS MORNING WITH
DENSE FOG. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DROP BACK TO IFR
W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY IN LIGHT SNOW
NORTH AND SNOW/RAIN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS EXTENDED THROUGH 10 AM. SEAS ARE
STILL RUNNING AT 6-7 FT BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF DROPPING BACK.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW 10 KT AND WAVE
HEIGHTS DROP TO 3-4 FT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD ME NEEDED FOR SEAS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
         MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 315 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 306 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2014

Three disturbances imbedded within NW upper flow will impact our
area through late this afternoon today.

The first is producing an area of pcpn that has greatly expanded
early this morning and is now moving into STL metro.  Reports from
spotters and media indicate rather solid light accums, ranging from
a dusting to a half inch.  While not much, it may still have a
decent impact with slick spots on untreated areas as we head into
the morning rush hour.  Expect this area of pcpn to push thru
continuing with light accums, including STL metro.  Areas further to
the N and W will also experience some changeover in pcpn types to
rain or sleet as warmer air attempts to push in ahead of yet another
surface reflection of a clipper system.

There is a second area of pcpn moving thru NW MO and into SE IA, but
this thus far has taken the form of a very narrow band of pcpn.  4km
NMM and ARW WRF models want to expand and amplify this as it drops
SE thru the CWA, but other models want to discount.  Will keep an
eye on this and make adjustments as needed, but for now am leaning
towards just chance PoPs.

The third area will be in the wake of the cold front associated with
the clipper system.  While the main pcpn effects from the clipper
proper will be well to our N and E, scattered rain and snow showers
will be expected later this afternoon with a late surge of lo level
CAA.

It will also get windy behind the cold front this afternoon, with
gusts to 35-40mph, especially in northeast and central MO.  A modest
temp drop will also occur this afternoon, but will be largely
restricted to N MO and central IL with the bulk of the strong CAA
holding off until late and tonight.

TES


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2014

Another shot of cold air will drop sewd into our forecast area tgt
as shortwaves continue to drop sewd through the region and deepen
the upper level trough over the Great Lakes region. The models
lower the 850 mb temperatures down to around -20 degrees C at
least across portions of nern MO and w cntrl IL by 12z Friday.
There will also be some light snow, snow showers or at least
flurries tgt. Flurries may linger Friday mrng across the IL
counties of our forecast area until the upper level trough shifts
east of the region. Temperatures will be below normal for Thursday
ngt and Friday. With increasing low-mid level waa Friday ngt and
the surface wind becoming swly, temperatures will fall Friday evng
but then may become nearly steady late Friday ngt. A Clipper type,
nw flow upper level low and associated weak sfc low will drop sewd
through portions of swrn WI, ern IA and nrn IL on Saturday,
although the models have slight differences on the exact track. It
still appears that the more significant snow will remain ne of our
forecast area Saturday aftn and evng, although there may be light
snow or at least flurries across the IL counties of our forecast
area especially if the track of the low is a little further sw.
This upper level low and associated sfc low will bring a quick
shot of colder air into our area Saturday ngt, but then
temperatures will warm back up quickly for Sunday as upper level
heights begin to rise and the surface wind backs around to a swly
direction. Colder air will gradually sag swd into our area Monday
and Monday ngt with upper level troughing developing over the
Great Lakes region and a relatively strong sfc ridge building sewd
into MO, particularly as depicted by the GFS model. After above
normal high temperatures on Sunday and Monday, highs will return
to below normal for Tuesday.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2014

Clouds across the CWA continue to thicken and gradually lower late
this evening with sustained WAA as well as approach of upper level
shortwave. Much of the latest guidance...including the RUC and
HRRR...is a bit more enthusiastic about precip during the predawn
hours, so have introduced some MVFR vsbys (with VFR cigs) in light
snow for UIN and STL area TAFS for several hours.  Concern also
continues for LLWS. While surface obs suggest that some gustiness
(which will lessen LLWS) should impact UIN believe that the slightly
stronger surface winds will not materialize elsewhere, and as a
result have introduced LLWS at COU and STL area for 1.5-2kft winds
250/45kts. Surface winds will ramp up later Thursday morning and
into the afternoon due to strong pressure gradient from surface low
dropping into Great Lakes, and this combined with fairly deep mixing
should produce west to northwest winds of 20-30kts. Steepening low
level lapse rates combined with a bit of diurnal heating should also
produce CU/SC ceilings of 3-5kft late in the morning and especially
during the afternoon. Very little decrease is expected in wind
speeds heading into Thursday night as the primary cold air surge
enters the region, with occasional snow flurries accompanying the
arrival of the much colder airmass

Specifics for KSTL: Based on above reasoning have introduced some
MVFR vsbys in light snow (with VFR cigs) in the 08-11z time frame,
followed by partial clearing and a threat of LLWS as forecast
soundings are indicating winds of 250/45 kts between 1.5 and 2kft.
Surface winds will slow veer and increase in speed from mid
morning into midday, with west/northwest winds gusting into the
25-30kt range throughout the afternoon. Expecting CU/SC deck
between 3-5kft to accompany the gusty winds and deep mixing.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1201 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1159 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2014

Made a few changes to the going forecast for the rest of the
night. Short range guidance is trending toward a stronger signal
for some light snow. Showing decent 925-850mb frontogenesis on the
RAP and NAM for the rest of the night ahead of the low level
shortwave, and then another band of frontogenesis higher
up...850-700mb and even some higher than that as the primary 500mb
wave digs across Missouri after 12Z Thursday. Also, upstream
surface obs are showing some light precip under some of the
stronger radar returns over southern Iowa and northwest Missouri.
Have therefore increased PoPs a bit for the rest of the night into
Thursday morning. The lower atmosphere is still pretty dry with
dewpoint depressions of 10-15 degrees and even more in some
spots...so I think that any precip that does reach the ground will
be very light. Have also increased wind speed and gusts on
Thursday. Models are indicating strong gradient winds tomorrow
around 20kts or more with gusts to at least 30kts.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 321 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2014

Main concern tonight will be chance of light snow.  ECMWF/NAM/GFS
are all similar in showing that a shortwave trough currently will
drop out of south central Canada and move into Missouri by 12Z
tomorrow morning.  This system will produce some modest ascent
during the late evening and overnight hours, particularly over the
the northeastern half of the area.  The main limiting factor will be
dry air in the low levels, so have kept with slight or low chance
pops.

Temperatures will only fall into the lower-mid 20s tonight in the
warm air advection regime.   Went lower than MOS guidance as these
values are not much lower than current temperatures.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2014

Roller coaster ride to continue with cold front/shortwave trof
exiting forecast area on Thursday. Most of energy to remain just
northeast and east of forecast area. So just have silent slight
chance pops for most of forecast area and low chance pops far
east. With temperatures warming up into the low to mid 40s, the
precipitation may start out as light snow/flurries, but will see
it mixed with light rain/sprinkles during the afternoon hours.
Amounts will be very light, so do not expect any accumulations.

Secondary shortwave, which is a bit stronger, to rotate around
surface low Thursday night. Best chances of light snow will be over
northeast MO...west central/southwestern IL. So have low chance pops
going there...slight chance pops to the west. Little or no
accumulation is expected by early Friday morning with this system.
Lows Thursday night will range from around 9 degrees far north to
around 18 degrees far south.

Surface ridge to build in on Friday with highs only in the upper
teens to mid 20s. Could see some lingering flurries early Friday
morning.

Then surface ridge to move off to the east Friday night as next cold
front approaches region. Lows will be in the mid to upper teens.
Cold front to move through on Saturday with a chance of some light
snow mainly along and east of Mississippi River once again. High
temperatures will range from the low 30s far northeast to low 40s
degrees over central and southern MO. Lows Saturday night will be in
the low to mid 20s.

For the rest of the forecast period, active pattern to continue with
temperatures warming up into the low 40s to low 50s on Sunday ahead
of next cold front that will slide southeast through forecast area
Sunday night. Extended models have differing solutions on placement
and timing of system. For now will keep forecast dry and slightly
cooler temps by Tuesday, in the upper 20s to near 40, then dip down
to mid 20s to mid 30s by Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2014

Clouds across the CWA continue to thicken and gradually lower late
this evening with sustained WAA as well as approach of upper level
shortwave. Much of the latest guidance...including the RUC and
HRRR...is a bit more enthusiastic about precip during the predawn
hours, so have introduced some MVFR vsbys (with VFR cigs) in light
snow for UIN and STL area TAFS for several hours.  Concern also
continues for LLWS. While surface obs suggest that some gustiness
(which will lessen LLWS) should impact UIN believe that the slightly
stronger surface winds will not materialize elsewhere, and as a
result have introduced LLWS at COU and STL area for 1.5-2kft winds
250/45kts. Surface winds will ramp up later Thursday morning and
into the afternoon due to strong pressure gradient from surface low
dropping into Great Lakes, and this combined with fairly deep mixing
should produce west to northwest winds of 20-30kts. Steepening low
level lapse rates combined with a bit of diurnal heating should also
produce CU/SC ceilings of 3-5kft late in the morning and especially
during the afternoon. Very little decrease is expected in wind
speeds heading into Thursday night as the primary cold air surge
enters the region, with occasional snow flurries accompanying the
arrival of the much colder airmass

Specifics for KSTL: Based on above reasoning have introduced some
MVFR vsbys in light snow (with VFR cigs) in the 08-11z time frame,
followed by partial clearing and a threat of LLWS as forecast
soundings are indicating winds of 250/45 kts between 1.5 and 2kft.
Surface winds will slow veer and increase in speed from mid
morning into midday, with west/northwest winds gusting into the
25-30kt range throughout the afternoon. Expecting CU/SC deck
between 3-5kft to accompany the gusty winds and deep mixing.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 320 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO BIG
STORMS ARE ON THE HORIZON...SO ANY RAIN OR SNOW WE DO GET WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITS TO
OUR EAST AND A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. STILL
NOTING THOUGH AN ELONGATED AREA OF ENHANCED PV BEHIND THE FRONT ON
LATEST WV ANALYSIS WITH SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON CURRENT RADAR
SOUTHWEST OF GLENS FALLS DOWN INTO CENTRAL PA. LATEST RUC BASED
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR/RUC13 AND LOCAL 6KM WRF HANDLING CURRENT
CONDITIONS VERY WELL AND SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
UPSTREAM ENERGY TO PEAL OFF THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
THROUGH THE DAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPS TODAY CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...BASICALLY RUNNING WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
INTRODUCING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING REALLY SIGNIFICANT WITH A LACK OF ANY REAL
DEEP MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AS THE REMNANTS OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
HIGH WINDS AND SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WEAKENS AFTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREATS LAKES AND TRACKS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ONLY LOOKING AT SNOW ACCUMS OF A DUSTING TO 2" AT BEST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 224 AM EST THURSDAY...TONIGHT`S MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN
OVERALL GOOD CONTINUITY DURING THE DAY 4-7 TIME FRAME (SUN-WED)
OFFERING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48
IN SHOWING A MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY DEEPER AND
COLDER OVER TIME...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION
AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW. BEING OF CENTRAL CANADIAN ORIGIN...THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED PRODUCING ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR FLURRIES/SHSN ACROSS OUR AREA AND DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES. NONETHELESS...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESP DURING SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING WHEN THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES CROSSES OUR REGION. OF
FURTHER INTEREST IS THE FACT THAT THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS THAT
A MORE CONCERTED PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MAY MAKE INROADS BACK INTO OUR
REGION BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD. FOR THE SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE...I WISH I
COULD OFFER A POTENTIAL BIGGER STORM SYSTEM OUT THERE ON THE
HORIZON...BUT WITH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS LYING NEARLY ATOP
OUR AREA THE GOMEX/WRN ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAM WILL LIKELY LIE
TOO FAR EAST/OFFSHORE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER FOR NOW. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S SUN/MON...THEN COLDER BEHIND POLAR FRONT WITH
READINGS IN THE TEENS BY TUESDAY...AND 5 TO 15 ABOVE BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS AN INITIAL PROGNOSIS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER (5 TO 15 ABOVE SUN/MON NIGHTS...TRENDING COLDER THEREAFTER).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CONDS ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF IFR AT
KMPV THROUGH 12Z...AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A WEAK RIPPLE OR TWO IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS VT TERMINALS THROUGH MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MAINLY DRY AT NRN NY TERMINALS TO THE
WEST OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE. SOME DRY PERIODS AS WELL. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME IFR FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
KMPV...BUT AGAIN BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS GENERALLY THE RULE. WINDS
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY MAINLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A TROF OF LOW PRES WL CONT TO DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHCS FOR OCCASIONAL IFR VIS/CIGS
WL BE AT SLK/MPV ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE
EXPECTED AT MSS/BTV/RUT/PBG.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM...HOWEVER
IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR THEM TO ARRIVE. THUS...THERE IS
NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE RADAR WILL BE
RESTORED TO FULL SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1216 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES OF
8MB/3HRS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE RUC13 BRINGS THIS DOWN IN
CHUNKS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THAT WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONG PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS PER CURRENT/PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. STRONGEST WIND GUST THUS FAR OCCURRED AT 1155 PM CST
WEDNESDAY WITH 71 MPH AT MINOT AIR FORCE BASE. VISIBILITIES OF
AROUND ONE QUARTER MILE IN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NO MAJOR UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS/FORECASTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014

THE MINOT RADAR INDICATES SNOW SHOWERS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBS ARE
REPORTING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST. AS A RESULT...ADDED
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
SURFACE OBS.

OTHERWISE...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEP
LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE
HIGHEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD. THE CURRENT WIND AND
BLIZZARD HEADLINES CONTINUE TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES
REQUIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ROLLA HAS
ALREADY GUSTED TO 62 MPH AND THE OB AT CROSBY HAD SUSTAINED WINDS
AT 40 MPH WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. THE HIGHER WINDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE NPW TO FRESHEN UP THE EVENING
WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS FORECAST IS THE STRONG WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING SNOW. BASED ON MANY HOURS OF SURFACE OBS ACROSS CANADA SO
FAR TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...AND WINDS
GUSTING TO 60 MPH ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA...
BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW IS LOW ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 40S
OVER MOST IF THE AREA. AS A RESULT A HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES
FOR WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM CARRINGTON SOUTH TO ELLENDALE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW IS GREATER AS THE SNOW COVER IS LESS
CRUSTED. GFS-NAM MODELS FORECAST A H850 WIND FIELD OF 65 TO 75 KTS
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER CLIPPER
PROPAGATING ACROSS WINNIPEG FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDING
FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 0.5 KM WINDS OF 45-50
KTS ARE FORECAST WITH ISALLOBARIC FORCING VIA A 10-12MB/6 HR
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE. AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS BORDERLINE FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA...HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THEREAFTER...THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME ON NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR CLIPPERS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 40KT AND 50KT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AERODROMES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WITH VISIBILITIES OF LIFR TO VLIFR AT KJMS WITH CIGS RANGING
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. ELSEWHERE GUSTY WINDS WITH MVFR CIGS TO LOW
VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>047-050.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ025-037-048-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 345 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

...GUSTY NW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST FAR SE PLAINS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...

OBS AT 2 AM THIS MORNING SHOWED A WIDE SWING IN TEMPS. BANANA BELT
AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE S MTNS WERE LIVING UP TO THEIR REPUTATION AS
TEMPS WERE IN TH 40S. EVEN KPUB...WITH W WINDS AT 10 KNTS...WAS
HOLDING ONTO A 40F TEMP. FURTHER EAST WHERE THE WINDS WERE
LIGHT...TEMPS HAD FALLEN  INTO THE U20S/L30S. THE MIDDLE OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY (SLV) WERE NEAR ZERO WHILE THE REST OF THE VALLEYS AND
MTNS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TODAY...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS OVER E PLAINS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY
NW WINDS AS 120 KNT JET IMPINGES OVER REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT 700 MBS AT 50 KNTS OVER FAR E PLAINS SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE
A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVER FAR E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY E KIOWA COUNTY.
BLOWING DUST WILL BE AN ISSUE GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM KLHX DOWN TO
KSPD.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE PLAINS. VARIABLE MID/HI CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT.

REST OF AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. NO PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATE ANYWHERE OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...

WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SFC
WESTERLIES OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPS WILL BE MORE UNIFORM (AND
COOL...TEENS) OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. KALS SHOULD GET DOWN INTO
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SUNDAY
WITH WARMING ALOFT UNDERNEATH BUILDING RIDGE. THERE WILL STILL BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH EXPECTED GOOD MIXING LEADING TO BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH WITH DECREASING WINDS
ALOFT...DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. PASSING WAVE REMAINS TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO PRODUCE
ANY PRECIPITATION BUT LOOKS TO SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK SOME 5-15F ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER RIDGING REBUILDING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW MOVES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM UNDERCUTTING RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE EC STRONGER AND FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS IS WEAKER AND MOVES IT ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY. WITH CONTINUED DIFFERENCES LIKELY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
ENERGY UNDERCUTTING RIDGE...HAVE KEPT THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS. WINDS AT KPUB AND KALS WILL BE LIGHT. AT KCOS..WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT DIRECTION MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LEADING
EDGE OF NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL EXTEND ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY.
HOW FAR WEST THESE NW WINDS MAKE IT BACK TO THE MTNS IS UNCERTAIN.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SFC WINDS AT KCOS COULD VARY FROM S TO SW...AND
THEN GO NW FOR AWHILE THIS AFTERNOON...TO EVENTUALLY GOING N THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS IN HRRR DATA AND ISSUE
APPROPRIATE FCST AT 1120 UTC.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 950 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...FIRST FREEZE SINCE LAST WINTER TONIGHT MANY AREAS...
...COLDER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT THE
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE RAPIDLY CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT THE SPACE CENTER WERE RECORDING NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 20 MPH FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 3500 FEET. THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN DURING THE MORNING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FROM
NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WERE SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S. THE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH SOME
LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THEIR
SEASONAL UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

MORNING UPDATE TO REMOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINE AND INTRODUCE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BEING LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS ZONE DISCUSSION

TONIGHT LTST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LIGHT FREEZE SOUTH TO
AT LEAST LAKE OKEE WITH MUCH LIGHTER TO NEAR CALM WINDS AND OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY
FALL WITH DARKNESS. THE FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE COUNTIES INLAND FROM THE COAST AND METRO ORLANDO. RURAL AREAS
OF WEST ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS NORTH
OF I-4 EARLY FRI SHOULD PREVENT FULL COOLDOWN INTO THE UPR 20S.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S AREAWIDE NEAR SUNRISE. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 8AM. WHILE IT WILL BE A SLOW
CLIMB EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TOUCH THE MIDDLE 60S IF
ONLY BRIEFLY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ENGULFS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER TIME AND
PUSH YET ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS NEAR SUNRISE WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BUT STAY BELOW 10 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION BELOW MENTIONABLE IN THE FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH GULF FRI NIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS FRI EVENING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
MPH LATE OVERNIGHT.

LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FORECAST TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ARE FORECAST MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE...EXCEPT AND TREASURE COAST/BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD PREVAIL.

SAT-SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCY OVER MUCH OF
THE GOMEX AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGHING
INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL FLATTEN
OUT A BIT BY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A CONTINUED WESTERLY COMPONENT OF
WIND NEAR THE SURFACE.

COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SAT...MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOWER 60S
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. A WARM-UP EXPECTED FOR SUN
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE. WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA SAT
OVERNIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH OF KMCO-KMLB. MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FORECAST NORTH
OF HERE SAT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SUN OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

MON-WED...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN SEABOARD NORTH OF FLORIDA DEAL WITH A CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN THROUGH EARLY TUE AND ANOTHER
SURFACE FRONT PRESSES THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TUE. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW...THOUGH A SMALL POP MAY BE
INTRODUCED LATER BY FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS WITH THIS LATEST
FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD JUST YET
IN THIS COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN.

MON-TUE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES
FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WITH WED COMING IN A LITTLE COOLER ONCE AGAIN
FOR HIGHS SURROUNDING THE LATEST FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS THROUGH 5 PM.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...MOST RECENT BUOY REPORTS SHOWED THE BUOY
42NM EAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
27 KNOTS AND 7 FOOT SEAS. THE BUOY 20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WAS
RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEING RECORDED EARLIER. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4NM
EAST OF PORT CANAVERAL AND 6NM NORTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE INLET WERE
RECORDING 2 AND 4 FOOT SEAS RESPECTIVELY.

THE LATEST LOCAL WRF AND RUC13 MODELS WERE INDICATING THAT THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN SYNC
WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 4PM/21Z BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS FOR ANY TRENDS TO THE CONTRARY.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TODAY AND TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE ATLC WATERS
WL KEEP SOLID ADVISORY CONDS IN PLACE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THEN
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEAS TO FOLLOW. SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TAPER BACK TO CAUTION OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...WITH
COUNTERING WINDS ALONG GULFSTREAM KEEPING SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS
NR THE CURRENT AND OFFSHORE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI OVERNIGHT.
INITIAL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KTS OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT
WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT OFFSHORE LATE AND AROUND 3 FT NEAR SHORE FRI
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. WNW-NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
DURING THE DAY BECOMING 10-15 KTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A
TAIL END OF ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT
OVERNIGHT CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN WITH WNW
WINDS NORTH OF THE CAPE INCREASING IN UPWARDS OF 15-20 KTS VERY
LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD ON SAT TO 5-7 FT WELL OFFSHORE AND 3-5 FT NEAR
SHORE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE AND 3-4 FT NEAR
SHORE SAT NIGHT.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS STEADILY
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON SUN AND REMAINING BELOW 15 KTS ON MON
WHILE KEEPING A WESTERLY COMPONENT. SEAS 4-6 FT OFFSHORE/NORTH OF
THE CAPE SUN WILL ALSO STEADILY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD DRY AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY
THE WESTERN HALF WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
LESS THAN 35 PERCENT.

THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 40
PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHING THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD 35 PERCENT...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS JUST UNDER 15
MPH AND DRYING SMALL FUELS WILL MAKE FOR A FIRE SENSITIVE DAY FOR
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION

QUITE COOL CONDITIONS BEHIND THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR...HOWEVER VERY LOW RH WILL STILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL DUE A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES. REPORTED ERCS IN PORTIONS OF THE ORLANDO
DISTRICT NEAR 30 REQUIRED THE RED FLAG WARNING WHEN COMBINED WITH
MIN RH AND WINDS FORECAST.

FRI-MON...RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS ON FRI...WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF ORLANDO DOWN
TOWARDS OKEECHOBEE FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRI OVERNIGHT NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN RETURNING
FOR SAT. RH`S FROM NEAR KISSIMMEE NORTHWARD WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
WITH 30S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE SAT AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RETURN FOR SUN-MON. 20 FT/TRANSPORT
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  56  35  65  41 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  58  35  64  45 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  60  36  66  46 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  59  34  66  50 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  56  31  65  42 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  57  35  65  43 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  56  36  64  46 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  59  33  65  49 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INDIAN RIVER-
     INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-OSCEOLA-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ORANGE-SEMINOLE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...KELLY







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 546 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

Mid level shortwave and associated vorticity was located over IA and
NE around 09Z and will continue to dig southward through out the day
today. This wave is pushing a surface cold front southward which is
currently located across portions of southeast and south central NE.
Winds ahead of the front are light out of the west although directly
behind the front become northwesterly and increase rapidly. Forecast
soundings continue to show that the boundary will mix into 50-60 kts
winds as early as 10 am lasting through most of the afternoon. There
are a few factors that could limit the momentum transfer of the wind
today which include weak subsidence and stratus within the mixing
layer. The stratus should remain confined to far northeast KS during
the afternoon hours while partly cloudy elsewhere. The last few runs
of the RAP and HRRR continue to agree that most areas along and
north of interstate 35 will experience surface gusts around 35-45
kts and approaching 50 kts in the far northwest portion of the
forecast area. Therefore have upgraded the advisory to a high wind
warning in that location. The strongest wind gusts should subside
around sunset this evening although will remain gusty through most
of the night. High temperatures today are generally in the 40s
although look to occur mostly before noon. There is a slight chance
for sprinkles and or flurries in far northeast KS during the
afternoon and evening as a vort max rotates through the trough axis.
During the afternoon cold air advection increases sending
temperatures into the mid to upper 10s by Friday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

A longer wave-length upper level trough will continue across the
east central conus with a longer wave-length upper level ridge
along the the western coast of North America through the forecast
period.

The amplified upper level trough across the eastern conus will move
east into the mid Atlantic states on Sunday. A secondary upper level
trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes States into the Mid
Atlantic States on Sunday.

Friday and Friday night, a surface ridge of high pressure will shift
southeast of the CWA by late afternoon. Northwest winds will
diminish during the early afternoon hours and become southerly
across north central KS. Highs Friday will only reach the lower to
mid 30s across northeast and east central KS, with lower 40s across
north central KS. Lows Friday night will drop into the 20s, shortly
after midnight with temperatures remaining steady or lowly rising
through the morning hours of Saturday.

Saturday, as the H5 trough digs southeast across the Great Lakes a weak
cold front will push southward across the CWA during the afternoon
hours. Highs ahead of the front should warm into the upper 40s to
around 50 degrees across much of the CWA. Temperatures across the
northern counties could slowly fall through the 40s during the mid
and late afternoon hours as winds shift from the west-southwest to
the northwest.

Sunday, The upper flow will become more zonal as a lee surface
trough deepens across western KS and southeast CO. Southwest surface
winds will advect warmer downslope air northeast across central
and eastern KS. Highs will warm into the mid 50s to around 60
degrees with mostly sunny skies.

Another upper level trough will dig southeast out west central
Canada and across the northern plains, and into the mid MS river
valley and OH river valley. This will bring a surge of colder air
southward across the northern plains into eastern KS. Highs on
Monday will cool into the mid 40s to around 50 and down into the
30s to around 40 on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The latest
data as well as the sounding at TOP does not show much of an issue
with low level wind shear this morning as previously thought. It
is rather borderline with about 40-45 kts of shear in the lowest 2
kft and should only last a few hours. Winds are still forecast to
increase later this morning and last most of the period with the
exception of MHK which may drop the gusts earlier towards the end
of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 543 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

Very high rangeland fire danger criteria will be met across much of
north central, northeast and east central KS this Afternoon. Minimum
RH`s will drop to 25 to 35 percent along with very strong
northwest winds of 30 to 40 MPH with gusts of 40 to 55 MPH, even
some 60 MPH wind gusts across Republic and Cloud counties. Given
the strong northwest winds and dry fuels, any outdoor burning will
lead to uncontrollable wild fires late this morning and through
the afternoon hours. All planned outdoor burning Today will need
to be rescheduled.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening
FOR KSZ009>012-021>024-026-034>040-054-055.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening FOR KSZ008-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 534 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

Mid level shortwave and associated vorticity was located over IA and
NE around 09Z and will continue to dig southward through out the day
today. This wave is pushing a surface cold front southward which is
currently located across portions of southeast and south central NE.
Winds ahead of the front are light out of the west although directly
behind the front become northwesterly and increase rapidly. Forecast
soundings continue to show that the boundary will mix into 50-60 kts
winds as early as 10 am lasting through most of the afternoon. There
are a few factors that could limit the momentum transfer of the wind
today which include weak subsidence and stratus within the mixing
layer. The stratus should remain confined to far northeast KS during
the afternoon hours while partly cloudy elsewhere. The last few runs
of the RAP and HRRR continue to agree that most areas along and
north of interstate 35 will experience surface gusts around 35-45
kts and approaching 50 kts in the far northwest portion of the
forecast area. Therefore have upgraded the advisory to a high wind
warning in that location. The strongest wind gusts should subside
around sunset this evening although will remain gusty through most
of the night. High temperatures today are generally in the 40s
although look to occur mostly before noon. There is a slight chance
for sprinkles and or flurries in far northeast KS during the
afternoon and evening as a vort max rotates through the trough axis.
During the afternoon cold air advection increases sending
temperatures into the mid to upper 10s by Friday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

A longer wave-length upper level trough will continue across the
east central conus with a longer wave-length upper level ridge
along the the western coast of North America through the forecast
period.

The amplified upper level trough across the eastern conus will move
east into the mid Atlantic states on Sunday. A secondary upper level
trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes States into the Mid
Atlantic States on Sunday.

Friday and Friday night, a surface ridge of high pressure will shift
southeast of the CWA by late afternoon. Northwest winds will
diminish during the early afternoon hours and become southerly
across north central KS. Highs Friday will only reach the lower to
mid 30s across northeast and east central KS, with lower 40s across
north central KS. Lows Friday night will drop into the 20s, shortly
after midnight with temperatures remaining steady or lowly rising
through the morning hours of Saturday.

Saturday, as the H5 trough digs southeast across the Great Lakes a weak
cold front will push southward across the CWA during the afternoon
hours. Highs ahead of the front should warm into the upper 40s to
around 50 degrees across much of the CWA. Temperatures across the
northern counties could slowly fall through the 40s during the mid
and late afternoon hours as winds shift from the west-southwest to
the northwest.

Sunday, The upper flow will become more zonal as a lee surface
trough deepens across western KS and southeast CO. Southwest surface
winds will advect warmer downslope air northeast across central
and eastern KS. Highs will warm into the mid 50s to around 60
degrees with mostly sunny skies.

Another upper level trough will dig southeast out west central
Canada and across the northern plains, and into the mid MS river
valley and OH river valley. This will bring a surge of colder air
southward across the northern plains into eastern KS. Highs on
Monday will cool into the mid 40s to around 50 and down into the
30s to around 40 on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The latest
data as well as the sounding at TOP does not show much of an issue
with low level wind shear this morning as previously thought.
Winds are still forecast to increase later this morning and last
most of the period with the exception of MHK which may drop the
gusts earlier towards the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 526 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

Very high rangeland fire danger criteria will be met across much of
north central, northeast and east central KS this Afternoon. Minimum
RH`s will drop to 25 to 35 percent along with very strong
northwest winds of 30 to 40 MPH with gusts of 40 to 55 MPH, even
some 60 MPH wind gusts across Republic and Cloud counties. Given
the strong northwest winds and dry fuels, any outdoor burning will
lead to uncontrollable wild fires late this morning and through
the afternoon hours. All planned outdoor burning Today will need
to be rescheduled.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening
FOR KSZ009>012-021>024-026-034>040-054-055.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening FOR KSZ008-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 423 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AT THE 500MB
LEVEL STRONG 585DM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH EASTERN
FLANK EXTENDING TO GREAT BASIN...AND 511DM CLOSED LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN CANADA. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
DEEP SURFACE-300MB UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE PLAINS. UPSTREAM VWP WOULD INDICATE A 75+ JET AT 700MB AND
95+JET AT 500MB ALREADY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A STRONG PV15
HEIGHT ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN LINE WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ROUNDING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT
BY MID LEVEL DRYING ON WV IMAGERY WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS/EASTERN MONTANA. EAST OF THIS IS A PLUME MOISTURE ON WV
IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS DECK.

AXIS OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OVER CWA AS FRONT
QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS
POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH ACROSS SW CWA DURING THE DAY. AREA OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON WV IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OVER OUR
CWA...SUPPORTING GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION AND CLEARING IN THE EAST.
HIGH CLOUDS COULD HAVE IMPACT ON MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY IN THE
WEST...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY DRY
MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENT ORIENTATION OF
MOISTURE PLUME ON WV MATCHING H5-H3 MODEL RH WOULD INDICATE
CIRRUS MAINLY IMPACTING OUR FAR WEST/SW WHERE MODEL WINDS ARE
ALREADY LIGHTER.

LATEST RAP HAS COME IN STRONGER WITH WIND AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER
OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND GREELEY KS NEAR 50KT. ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE IS LOWER WITH VALUES IN THE 35-45KT RANGE...AND
LATEST HRRR WIND GUST FIELD KEEPS GUSTS SUB WARNING OVER THESE
COUNTIES. WITH CONCERN ALREADY REGARDING CLOUDS I THINK THE
ONGOING WIND ADVISORY COVERS POTENTIAL GUSTS FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES..

TOP OF MIXED LAYER ON ALL GUIDANCE ACROSS REST OF CWA IS IN THE
800-780MB LAYER AND STILL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-55KT RANGE.
ALL MODELS SHOW MUCH STRONGER WINDS IN THE 60KT+ RANGE (MATCH
TRENDS ON UPSTREAM VWP)...AND IF THESE STRONGER WINDS WERE TO
MIX DOWN WE COULD SEE WINDS AS HIGH AS 80MPH. BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL MIXING HEIGHTS THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT IT IS WORTH
MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE DAYTIME UPDATES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING BY THIS WEEKEND. WHILE WE GET A REPRIEVE FROM
WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD
BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (GUSTS 45MPH+) TO OUR CWA. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

NEXT WEEK LOOKS SIMILAR TO THIS WEEK WITH MILD TEMPS AND A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IN SIGHT GIVEN THE
CURRENT PATTERN. AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE A SHOT OF
COLD AIR ARRIVING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AIR WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG AS THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE FARTHER EAST.

SENSIBLE WX BENIGN FOR THE PERIOD. MILD ON SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH 850MB
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE RECORD HIGHS AT MCK AND HLC
WHICH ARE ONLY 66. GEM IS SIMILAR...BUT GFS IS NOT AS WARM. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
SUNDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE AIR
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES WITH WINDS ALREADY
GUSTING OUT OF THE NW 25-30KT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AT
BOTH TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS AROUND 55KT AT BOTH TAF
SITES SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING
DUST...WITH MVFR VIS (5SM) LIKELY BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE VISIBILITIES
ACTUALLY APPROACH 1/2SM OR LESS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO GO THAT LOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THIS EVENT UNFOLDS...SO I KEPT
TEMPO 1SM GROUP FOR AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH GUSTS TO 30KT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

REGARDING RFW CONDITIONS...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY/CURED
FUELS THERE IS A CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. THE ONE
CAVEAT IS RH VALUES RIGHT AT 20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
APPROACHING 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST TODAY. WHILE THESE RH VALUES ARE
CERTAINLY MARGINAL IN THE WEST...AFTER PREVIOUSLY COORDINATING
WITH PARTNERS IT WAS DECIDED TO COVER OUR ENTIRE AREA WITH AN
RFW DURING THE EVENING SHIFT...AND I SEE NO REASON TO MAKE A CHANGE
CONSIDERING THE IMPACT OF THE WINDS ON THE ALREADY CURED FUELS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-042.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ041.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 412 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

Mid level shortwave and associated vorticity was located over IA and
NE around 09Z and will continue to dig southward through out the day
today. This wave is pushing a surface cold front southward which is
currently located across portions of southeast and south central NE.
Winds ahead of the front are light out of the west although directly
behind the front become northwesterly and increase rapidly. Forecast
soundings continue to show that the boundary will mix into 50-60 kts
winds as early as 10 am lasting through most of the afternoon. There
are a few factors that could limit the momentum transfer of the wind
today which include weak subsidence and stratus within the mixing
layer. The stratus should remain confined to far northeast KS during
the afternoon hours while partly cloudy elsewhere. The last few runs
of the RAP and HRRR continue to agree that most areas along and
north of interstate 35 will experience surface gusts around 35-45
kts and approaching 50 kts in the far northwest portion of the
forecast area. Therefore have upgraded the advisory to a high wind
warning in that location. The strongest wind gusts should subside
around sunset this evening although will remain gusty through most
of the night. High temperatures today are generally in the 40s
although look to occur mostly before noon. There is a slight chance
for sprinkles and or flurries in far northeast KS during the
afternoon and evening as a vort max rotates through the trough axis.
During the afternoon cold air advection increases sending
temperatures into the mid to upper 10s by Friday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

A longer wave-length upper level trough will continue across the
east central conus with a longer wave-length upper level ridge
along the the western coast of North America through the forecast
period.

The amplified upper level trough across the eastern conus will move
east into the mid Atlantic states on Sunday. A secondary upper level
trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes States into the Mid
Atlantic States on Sunday.

Friday and Friday night, a surface ridge of high pressure will shift
southeast of the CWA by late afternoon. Northwest winds will
diminish during the early afternoon hours and become southerly
across north central KS. Highs Friday will only reach the lower to
mid 30s across northeast and east central KS, with lower 40s across
north central KS. Lows Friday night will drop into the 20s, shortly
after midnight with temperatures remaining steady or lowly rising
through the morning hours of Saturday.

Saturday, as the H5 trough digs southeast across the Great Lakes a weak
cold front will push southward across the CWA during the afternoon
hours. Highs ahead of the front should warm into the upper 40s to
around 50 degrees across much of the CWA. Temperatures across the
northern counties could slowly fall through the 40s during the mid
and late afternoon hours as winds shift from the west-southwest to
the northwest.

Sunday, The upper flow will become more zonal as a lee surface
trough deepens across western KS and southeast CO. Southwest surface
winds will advect warmer downslope air northeast across central
and eastern KS. Highs will warm into the mid 50s to around 60
degrees with mostly sunny skies.

Another upper level trough will dig southeast out west central
Canada and across the northern plains, and into the mid MS river
valley and OH river valley. This will bring a surge of colder air
southward across the northern plains into eastern KS. Highs on
Monday will cool into the mid 40s to around 50 and down into the
30s to around 40 on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
warm front was passing through the region with winds gradually
veering from south to northwest. Before the surface winds begin to
increase behind the front, there is the potential for a couple of
hours of llws as winds near 1500-2000ft start to reach near 50kts.
Surface winds are expected to quickly increase after sunrise and
remain very breezy through the day and even through the evening
hours. During the afternoon hours there is a good potential for the
TAF sites to reach sustained winds near 30kts and gusts upwards of
40kts and possibly even higher.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

Very high rangeland fire danger criteria will be met across much of
north central, northeast and east central KS this Afternoon. Minimum
RH`s will drop to 25 to 35 percent along with very strong
northwest winds of 30 to 40 MPH with gusts of 40 to 55 MPH, even
some 60 MPH wind gusts across Republic and Cloud counties. Given
the strong northwest winds and dry fuels, any outdoor burning will
lead to uncontrollable wild fires late this morning and through
the afternoon hours. All planned outdoor burning Today will need
to be rescheduled.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening
FOR KSZ009>012-021>024-026-034>040-054-055.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening FOR KSZ008-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 308 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AT THE 500MB
LEVEL STRONG 585DM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH EASTERN
FLANK EXTENDING TO GREAT BASIN...AND 511DM CLOSED LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN CANADA. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
DEEP SURFACE-300MB UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE PLAINS. UPSTREAM VWP WOULD INDICATE A 75+ JET AT 700MB AND
95+JET AT 500MB ALREADY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A STRONG PV15
HEIGHT ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN LINE WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ROUNDING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT
BY MID LEVEL DRYING ON WV IMAGERY WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS/EASTERN MONTANA. EAST OF THIS IS A PLUME MOISTURE ON WV
IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS DECK.

AXIS OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OVER CWA AS FRONT
QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS
POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH ACROSS SW CWA DURING THE DAY. AREA OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON WV IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OVER OUR
CWA...SUPPORTING GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION AND CLEARING IN THE EAST.
HIGH CLOUDS COULD HAVE IMPACT ON MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY IN THE
WEST...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY DRY
MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENT ORIENTATION OF
MOISTURE PLUME ON WV MATCHING H5-H3 MODEL RH WOULD INDICATE
CIRRUS MAINLY IMPACTING OUR FAR WEST/SW WHERE MODEL WINDS ARE
ALREADY LIGHTER.

LATEST RAP HAS COME IN STRONGER WITH WIND AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER
OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND GREELEY KS NEAR 50KT. ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE IS LOWER WITH VALUES IN THE 35-45KT RANGE...AND
LATEST HRRR WIND GUST FIELD KEEPS GUSTS SUB WARNING OVER THESE
COUNTIES. WITH CONCERN ALREADY REGARDING CLOUDS I THINK THE
ONGOING WIND ADVISORY COVERS POTENTIAL GUSTS FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES..

TOP OF MIXED LAYER ON ALL GUIDANCE ACROSS REST OF CWA IS IN THE
800-780MB LAYER AND STILL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-55KT RANGE.
ALL MODELS SHOW MUCH STRONGER WINDS IN THE 60KT+ RANGE (MATCH
TRENDS ON UPSTREAM VWP)...AND IF THESE STRONGER WINDS WERE TO
MIX DOWN WE COULD SEE WINDS AS HIGH AS 80MPH. BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL MIXING HEIGHTS THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT IT IS WORTH
MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE DAYTIME UPDATES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING BY THIS WEEKEND. WHILE WE GET A REPRIEVE FROM
WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD
BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (GUSTS 45MPH+) TO OUR CWA. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

NEXT WEEK LOOKS SIMILAR TO THIS WEEK WITH MILD TEMPS AND A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IN SIGHT GIVEN THE
CURRENT PATTERN. AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE A SHOT OF
COLD AIR ARRIVING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AIR WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG AS THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE FARTHER EAST.

SENSIBLE WX BENIGN FOR THE PERIOD. MILD ON SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH 850MB
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE RECORD HIGHS AT MCK AND HLC
WHICH ARE ONLY 66. GEM IS SIMILAR...BUT GFS IS NOT AS WARM. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
SUNDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE AIR
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 926 PM MST WED JAN 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE IFR TO MVFR
VISIBILITY STILL POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE BLOWING DUST. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND A STRONG JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE
TAF SITES...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW MID-DAY.
MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING ONTO THE MIXING LAYER HEIGHT IN A 55 TO
60 KT JET SO HAVE KEPT GUSTS AT KGLD AT 52 KTS STARTING AT 17Z AND
GUSTS AT KMCK AT 55 KTS STARTING AT 16Z. THE TEMPO GROUP STILL
ACCOUNTS FOR POSSIBLE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO THE BLOWING
DUST...HAVE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1SM FOR KGLD AND 2SM FOR KMCK.
VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES AS WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE EVENT UNFOLDS. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECLINE AROUND SUNSET...WITH GUSTS AROUND 24 KTS AT KMCK
AND 27 KTS AT KGLD AROUND 0Z/01Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

REGARDING RFW CONDITIONS...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY/CURED
FUELS THERE IS A CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. THE ONE
CAVEAT IS RH VALUES RIGHT AT 20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
APPROACHING 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST TODAY. WHILE THESE RH VALUES ARE
CERTAINLY MARGINAL IN THE WEST...AFTER PREVIOUSLY COORDINATING
WITH PARTNERS IT WAS DECIDED TO COVER OUR ENTIRE AREA WITH AN
RFW DURING THE EVENING SHIFT...AND I SEE NO REASON TO MAKE A CHANGE
CONSIDERING THE IMPACT OF THE WINDS ON THE ALREADY CURED FUELS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-
     042.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ041.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ090-091.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR COZ092.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...ALW/RRH
FIRE WEATHER...DR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 1042 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

Light snow has been falling across portions of southern Indiana and
west central Kentucky this morning. Area webcams show any
accumulations are mainly on sidewalks and grassy surfaces, though
there have been some reports of slick roads under the heaviest
bursts of snow. All in all, accumulations should be fairly light
through the day with a dusting to up to an inch of snow possible. Am
a bit unsure about how much of this precipitation will change over
to rain this afternoon as temperatures are difficult. Extensive
cloud cover and precipitation will be offset by strong southerly
winds. In general, trended temps down a few degrees this afternoon.
Also went ahead and issued a Special Weather Statement for south and
east central Kentucky discussing the possibility of snow
accumulations tonight and tomorrow.

Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

Forecast this morning looks largely on track.  Latest radar imagery
looks a bit more menacing than reality, as it appears it`s taking
awhile for the low-levels to saturate enough to get precip to the
ground.  The best band of snow so far has been in and around the STL
metro, where there have been a few reports of accumulations near an
inch.  The latest RAP and HRRR have a pretty good handle on this
band of snow, and actually weaken it substantially as it heads into
the LMK CWA this morning.  Looking at the last few frames of the
radar mosaic, this appears to already be occurring.  The HRRR does
however develop additional precipitation behind this initial batch
for this afternoon, which may be more of a rain/snow mix along the
Ohio River, with more snow possible in southern Indiana.  All in
all, amounts of up to an inch still look good across southern
Indiana, with up to a few tenths of an inch possible along the Ohio
River.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

...Light snow accumulations possible today through Friday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a broad, deep trough
across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, thanks to an amplified,
blocking ridge across the eastern Pacific.  Multiple disturbances
will drop through this trough aloft this period, bringing a few
chances for precipitation.

Current water vapor imagery depicts the first quick-hitting
shortwave trough diving southeast through portions of Iowa this
morning.  Ascent ahead of this feature has led to a band of snow
across MO and IL.  Surface observations show much of this snow not
hitting the ground, likely due to a rather dry sub-cloud layer.
However, the band appears to have intensified a bit (Quincy, IL now
down to 2SM in light snow) over the past hour, and expect a slow
strengthening trend to continue through the morning hours.  This
band will approach southern IN by morning, spreading into northern
KY by late morning.

One complicating factor to the forecast today will be the brisk
southwesterly winds, which will likely push temperatures above
freezing in most locations.  However, forecast soundings depict
rather dry low-level air, which will keep wet bulb temperatures
below freezing for much of northern KY and southern IN through the
afternoon.  Therefore, despite surface temperatures creeping above
freezing, think precip will fall as mostly snow through noon.  By
early afternoon, enough warm air may work in to change the precip
over to a rain/snow mix for areas along the Ohio River, but southern
IN will likely remain snow throughout much of the event.
South-central KY will not see much precipitation at all today, but
anything that does fall will likely just be light rain/drizzle.  Any
snow accumulations will be confined to areas along and north of
I-64.  Up to an inch may be possible across far northern Dubois,
Orange, Washington, Scott, and Jefferson IN counties, tapering to
only a  tenth or two further south in areas along the Ohio River
(including the Louisville metro).  Will be issuing an SPS to
highlight these possible light accumulations.

A surface cold front will push through the region tonight, bringing
an end to the "warmer" temperatures as cooler air quickly pushes
in.  Forecast soundings show lapse rates quickly steepening, which
will support convective snow showers overnight.  Typically, these
type of showers tend to thrive more in the daylight hours given
better available instability.  Hi-res guidance remains split on just
how widespread these showers will be overnight, leading to a low
confidence forecast with respect to coverage.  Given the low-level
profiles coupled with the forcing from the upper-level trough axis
swinging through, think 30-40 pops seem reasonable overnight,
increasing to 40-50 by the daylight hours Friday.  The best coverage
will likely be late Friday morning/early afternoon across the
Northern Bluegrass and the Cumberland region, due to upslope flow
and the trough axis swinging through at a more favorable time of
day.  As is typical in these scenarios, snowfall amounts will be
quite variable.  Some locations could receive amounts in excess of
an inch, while others see nothing.  These showers could be moving
through during the morning commute, so there may be some negative
impacts from these snow showers Friday morning. These impacts,
coupled with possible amounts in excess of an inch in some
locations, may warrant a Winter Weather Advisory in coming forecasts
once confidence in timing/coverage/intensity increases.

After highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s today, the passing cold
front will drop readings into the low and mid 20s tonight.
Temperatures will not recover much at all on Friday due to the
strong cold air advection, remaining in the low to mid 20s.  By
Friday afternoon/evening, wind chills will be in the upper single
digits to lower teens!

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

The long term will be characterized by general troughing over the
eastern CONUS and ridging over the west. Multiple shortwaves will
dive through this northwesterly flow and reinforce the trough and
bring chances for snow showers to the region. Confidence is fairly
high that temperatures will run mostly below normal, but there is
much more uncertainty in the timing of any disturbances and
associated snow chances, as well as the magnitude of the temp
departures.

A fairly vigorous Clipper will dive SE into the upper Ohio Valley
late on Saturday, with snow chances in our north and east.
Tremendous bust potential with Sat afternoon max temps, as the GFS
MOS seems to reflect stronger warm advection into west-central KY
resulting in temps nearly 10 degrees warmer than any other guidance.
Have stayed with raw model consensus, which ranges from lower 30s
over the Bluegrass to upper 30s near BWG. Light accumulations
possible Sat night, especially toward the Bluegrass region.

Dry weather and moderating temps Sunday into Monday as heights rise
and a flatter pattern aloft directs the Clippers more across the
Great Lakes. The pattern becomes more amplified toward the middle of
the week, as the cold air is reinforced again. Not confident enough
to include POPs this far out. Temps will trend colder than the
previous forecast, but not as cold as the latest extended GFS MOS,
which is about 10 degrees colder than previous runs for Wed-Thu.
ECMWF is progressive enough that the core of the cold air never
quite settles into the Ohio Valley. Lows in the teens and highs in
the 20s seem to be a safe bet, but it remains to be seen whether we
will be on the higher end or the lower end of that range.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 600 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

An area of low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley today.  Out
ahead of this system, southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20
knots, with gusts to around 25 knots.  Precipitation will move
mainly into KSDF late this morning, initially falling as light
snow.  This snow may just be heavy enough to reduce cigs/vsbys to
MVFR thresholds for a few hours.  However, precipitation will begin
to mix with rain and decrease in intensity by the mid to late
afternoon, bringing conditions back up into VFR thresholds.  At KLEX
and KBWG, a stray shower or two is possible, but do not expect many
impacts to operations from today`s system, other than the increasing
winds.

A cold front will push through all sites tonight.  Scattered snow
showers will develop, which may be moderate to locally heavy at
times overnight into Friday morning.  Will continue to handle with
VCSH wording for now, but cigs/vsbys within these showers may
briefly be reduced to MVFR or even IFR thresholds while dropping
quick, light accumulations.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 625 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

Forecast this morning looks largely on track.  Latest radar imagery
looks a bit more menacing than reality, as it appears it`s taking
awhile for the low-levels to saturate enough to get precip to the
ground.  The best band of snow so far has been in and around the STL
metro, where there have been a few reports of accumulations near an
inch.  The latest RAP and HRRR have a pretty good handle on this
band of snow, and actually weaken it substantially as it heads into
the LMK CWA this morning.  Looking at the last few frames of the
radar mosaic, this appears to already be occurring.  The HRRR does
however develop additional precipitation behind this initial batch
for this afternoon, which may be more of a rain/snow mix along the
Ohio River, with more snow possible in southern Indiana.  All in
all, amounts of up to an inch still look good across southern
Indiana, with up to a few tenths of an inch possible along the Ohio
River.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

...Light snow accumulations possible today through Friday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a broad, deep trough
across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, thanks to an amplified,
blocking ridge across the eastern Pacific.  Multiple disturbances
will drop through this trough aloft this period, bringing a few
chances for precipitation.

Current water vapor imagery depicts the first quick-hitting
shortwave trough diving southeast through portions of Iowa this
morning.  Ascent ahead of this feature has led to a band of snow
across MO and IL.  Surface observations show much of this snow not
hitting the ground, likely due to a rather dry sub-cloud layer.
However, the band appears to have intensified a bit (Quincy, IL now
down to 2SM in light snow) over the past hour, and expect a slow
strengthening trend to continue through the morning hours.  This
band will approach southern IN by morning, spreading into northern
KY by late morning.

One complicating factor to the forecast today will be the brisk
southwesterly winds, which will likely push temperatures above
freezing in most locations.  However, forecast soundings depict
rather dry low-level air, which will keep wet bulb temperatures
below freezing for much of northern KY and southern IN through the
afternoon.  Therefore, despite surface temperatures creeping above
freezing, think precip will fall as mostly snow through noon.  By
early afternoon, enough warm air may work in to change the precip
over to a rain/snow mix for areas along the Ohio River, but southern
IN will likely remain snow throughout much of the event.
South-central KY will not see much precipitation at all today, but
anything that does fall will likely just be light rain/drizzle.  Any
snow accumulations will be confined to areas along and north of
I-64.  Up to an inch may be possible across far northern Dubois,
Orange, Washington, Scott, and Jefferson IN counties, tapering to
only a  tenth or two further south in areas along the Ohio River
(including the Louisville metro).  Will be issuing an SPS to
highlight these possible light accumulations.

A surface cold front will push through the region tonight, bringing
an end to the "warmer" temperatures as cooler air quickly pushes
in.  Forecast soundings show lapse rates quickly steepening, which
will support convective snow showers overnight.  Typically, these
type of showers tend to thrive more in the daylight hours given
better available instability.  Hi-res guidance remains split on just
how widespread these showers will be overnight, leading to a low
confidence forecast with respect to coverage.  Given the low-level
profiles coupled with the forcing from the upper-level trough axis
swinging through, think 30-40 pops seem reasonable overnight,
increasing to 40-50 by the daylight hours Friday.  The best coverage
will likely be late Friday morning/early afternoon across the
Northern Bluegrass and the Cumberland region, due to upslope flow
and the trough axis swinging through at a more favorable time of
day.  As is typical in these scenarios, snowfall amounts will be
quite variable.  Some locations could receive amounts in excess of
an inch, while others see nothing.  These showers could be moving
through during the morning commute, so there may be some negative
impacts from these snow showers Friday morning. These impacts,
coupled with possible amounts in excess of an inch in some
locations, may warrant a Winter Weather Advisory in coming forecasts
once confidence in timing/coverage/intensity increases.

After highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s today, the passing cold
front will drop readings into the low and mid 20s tonight.
Temperatures will not recover much at all on Friday due to the
strong cold air advection, remaining in the low to mid 20s.  By
Friday afternoon/evening, wind chills will be in the upper single
digits to lower teens!

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

The long term will be characterized by general troughing over the
eastern CONUS and ridging over the west. Multiple shortwaves will
dive through this northwesterly flow and reinforce the trough and
bring chances for snow showers to the region. Confidence is fairly
high that temperatures will run mostly below normal, but there is
much more uncertainty in the timing of any disturbances and
associated snow chances, as well as the magnitude of the temp
departures.

A fairly vigorous Clipper will dive SE into the upper Ohio Valley
late on Saturday, with snow chances in our north and east.
Tremendous bust potential with Sat afternoon max temps, as the GFS
MOS seems to reflect stronger warm advection into west-central KY
resulting in temps nearly 10 degrees warmer than any other guidance.
Have stayed with raw model consensus, which ranges from lower 30s
over the Bluegrass to upper 30s near BWG. Light accumulations
possible Sat night, especially toward the Bluegrass region.

Dry weather and moderating temps Sunday into Monday as heights rise
and a flatter pattern aloft directs the Clippers more across the
Great Lakes. The pattern becomes more amplified toward the middle of
the week, as the cold air is reinforced again. Not confident enough
to include POPs this far out. Temps will trend colder than the
previous forecast, but not as cold as the latest extended GFS MOS,
which is about 10 degrees colder than previous runs for Wed-Thu.
ECMWF is progressive enough that the core of the cold air never
quite settles into the Ohio Valley. Lows in the teens and highs in
the 20s seem to be a safe bet, but it remains to be seen whether we
will be on the higher end or the lower end of that range.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 600 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

An area of low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley today.  Out
ahead of this system, southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20
knots, with gusts to around 25 knots.  Precipitation will move
mainly into KSDF late this morning, initially falling as light
snow.  This snow may just be heavy enough to reduce cigs/vsbys to
MVFR thresholds for a few hours.  However, precipitation will begin
to mix with rain and decrease in intensity by the mid to late
afternoon, bringing conditions back up into VFR thresholds.  At KLEX
and KBWG, a stray shower or two is possible, but do not expect many
impacts to operations from today`s system, other than the increasing
winds.

A cold front will push through all sites tonight.  Scattered snow
showers will develop, which may be moderate to locally heavy at
times overnight into Friday morning.  Will continue to handle with
VCSH wording for now, but cigs/vsbys within these showers may
briefly be reduced to MVFR or even IFR thresholds while dropping
quick, light accumulations.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 652 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR EAST ON
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: EXTENDED THE FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE DOWNEAST
AND COAST BUT BROUGHT VSBYS UP ABOVE 1 MILE BY THAT TIME. DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS THROUGH 9 AM. WILL ALLOW
FOG TO FALL OUT OF THE FCST BY 10 AM ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN
AREAS. ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES UPWARD AS READINGS HAVE STAYED
IN TH UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND HELD IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO
RISE SOME TODAY BUT LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MOVES IN LATER ON. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING ACROSS WESTERN MAINE THIS
MORNING TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE HRRR AND NAM WERE DOING
WELL W/THE CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HANG ON A WHILE LONGER THIS MORNING W/A LIGHT
SSE WIND.

ATTENTION TURNS TO ANOTHER S/WV EXPECTED TO MOVE UP ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRES AT THE SFC PASSES
SE OF THE REGION. THE NAM HAS THIS FEATURE HANDLED WELL AS OF 06Z
AS IT WAS SETTING OFF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NYS AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
THIS FEATURE WILL SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DECIDED TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES UP TO 40% W/SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF POSSIBLY AN INCH OR LESS. THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME
TONIGHT AS AIR AND SFC TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN. QPF AMOUNTS ATTM
ARE FCST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" W/A SNOW RATIO OF 10-12:1.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR THE MAXES TODAY W/LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. THE MINS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN
HOW THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING LOW THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
UNTIL THE UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST, SEE NO REASON FOR A
DRAMATIC COOLDOWN UNTIL AFTER FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN
THE LONG TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY WILL BE A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
FROM TIME TO TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BE
TURNING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR ESPECIALLY FOR KBGR AND KBHB THIS MORNING WITH
DENSE FOG. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DROP BACK TO IFR
W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY IN LIGHT SNOW
NORTH AND SNOW/RAIN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS EXTENDED THROUGH 10 AM. SEAS ARE
STILL RUNNING AT 6-7 FT BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF DROPPING BACK.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW 10 KT AND WAVE
HEIGHTS DROP TO 3-4 FT.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD ME NEEDED FOR SEAS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 954 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA
REGION AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO MOST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...

SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACRS ERN ZONES AND FLURRIES ARE NOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THUS HV EXPANDED FLURRIES BACK
TO THE WEST AND EXPECT THESE SHUD DIMINISH BY 18Z AS DRIER LOW-LVL
AIR WORKS IN.

HV ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLRNG
AS 12Z RAOB FM KBUF INDICATED SATD LYR ARND 800MB. HV FOLLOWED
850-700MB RH FIELDS FM RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING WITH
AREAS ALONG I-81 RMNG MOCLDY THRU 16Z AND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EAST FM THERE. THUS, LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH
CLRNG DELAYED. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCO BLO...

SCT -SHSN CONTINUE ACRS ERN ZONES. WATER VAPOR SHOW THE UPR LVL
TROF MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS AND THIS WILL BRING THIS ACTIVITY TO
AN END LATER THIS MRNG. WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SEE
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTN WITH MAXES GNRLY IN THE L/M30S.

BROADENING TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH SVRL S/WV`S HELPING TO CARVE
OUT THIS FEATURE. INITIAL S/WV AND SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEWD ACRS
THE CNTRL GTLAKES ON FRI...KEEPING BEST SYNOPTIC MSTR TO OUR NW.
SLGT CHC POPS AFTER 06Z FOR THE POTNL OF SOME FLURRIES MOVG INTO
THE REGION DUE TO THIS FEATURE. MINS MAINLY IN THE M20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROF CONTINUES. NEXT S/WV MOVS THRU
LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG WITH HINTS OF A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING ACRS
PA. GOOD FORCING WITH THIS COMPACT SYSTEM IN THE QVEC AND DEF
FIELDS. NXT S/WV APRCHS SAT NGT. NAM/GEM TRACK THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE TN VLY WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACRS THE MID ATLC
STATES...SUGGESTING THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE SIG
EFFECTS ON THE BGM CWA. THE GFS/EURO SUGGEST A MORE NRLY TRACK AND
INDICATE POTNL FOR -SHSN AND LGT ACCUMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WE
LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. WE DO NOTE THAT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME RNG.
IF ONE OF THESE S/WV`S AMPLIFIES MORE THAN CRNTLY INDICATED...WE
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM WITH THEM. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTNL WOULD APPEAR TO BE LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG ACRS THE POCONOS
AND SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR ARCTIC AIR MASS DESCENDING ON REGION
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING COLDER AND NOW
JOINS ECMWF IN HAVING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES INTO THE 490S
DECAMETER RANGE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED COLDER REFLECTING LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE /AND MODEL TRENDS/. FURTHER LOWERING MAY BE NEEDED IF
UPCOMING RUNS CONTINUE DOWN THIS PATH...AS SUGGESTED BY RAW MODEL
00Z GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

AHEAD OF THAT...GENERAL THEME OF LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE
SAME...PASSING CLIPPERS OFFERING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AS DISCUSSED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN ENDLESS LINE IN A PARADE OF CLIPPERS WL AFFECT THE CWA THRU THE
END OF THE EXTNDD. STRONG S/WV WL DROP THRU THE UPR MIDWEST INTO
THE OH VLY FM 00Z-12Z SUNDAY. AS IT HEADS EAST ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE IT WL WEAKEN AND MAY SPREAD LGT SNOW INTO THE AREA SUN
MRNG. HWVR UNCERTAINTY IS ENUF TO KEEP JUST SLGT CHC POPS SOUTH OF
THE STATE LINE WITH THE MAIN CHC EXPECTED TO BE IN LK EFFECT
ZONES.

FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT PROGGED TO MV THRU PER 12Z GFS AND EC DRG THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY 12Z MONDAY AS EURO DVLPS SFC
LOW ACRS CWA AND GFS INDICATES JUST A WK TROF MVG THRU. OPTED TO GO
WITH JUST 20 POPS THRU THIS TIME, HIGHER THAN WPC GRIDS INDICATE.
YET ANOTHER WV MVS THRU TUE INTO TUE NGT WITH CHC SNOW SHOWERS THRU
THE END OF THE LONG TERM. 12Z EURO SHOWING SIGNS OF DEEP H5 LOW
DVLPNG ACRS NERN U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THICKNESS VALUES BLO
500DM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING IN...BUT WEAKENING MID
LEVEL FRONT IS STILL YIELDING -SN THIS MORNING KBGM-KAVP...INCLUDING
OCCASIONAL IFR VIS FOR KAVP THROUGH 13Z. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED LIGHT NNW FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A LAYER OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED MUCH OF THE MORNING...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT
MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIG. AS SURFACE RIDGE PASSES WEST TO EAST
MIDDAY...EXPECTING BREAKUP OF MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIG AS WINDS GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LONGEST FOR KBGM-KAVP. LIGHT SE TO
S WIND TONIGHT. NEW HIGH CLOUD DECK WILL IN ABOVE 10 KFT AGL LATE
EVENING BUT THEN DROPPING CLOSE TO MVFR TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

FRI TO MON...OCNL RESTRICTIONS FROM -SHSN THRU THE PD...AS
MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MDP/PVN
AVIATION...MDP





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 942 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO BIG
STORMS ARE ON THE HORIZON...SO ANY RAIN OR SNOW WE DO GET WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 941 AM EST THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AS WELL AS THE
ALBANY AND THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEY IN NEW YORK MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT
AT THIS TIME. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...RUC13 MODEL
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED ON THE
THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND THE 06Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 625 AM EST THURSDAY...QUICK MORNING
UPDATE TO INTRODUCE HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS MID-LEVEL PV WHICH I MENTIONED IN MY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LATEST RUC13 NOW SHOWS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF VERMONT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AND INCH OR TWO...MAINLY ON
GRASSY SURFACES. AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. TEMPS TODAY CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...BASICALLY RUNNING WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
INTRODUCING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING REALLY SIGNIFICANT WITH A LACK OF ANY REAL
DEEP MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AS THE REMNANTS OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
HIGH WINDS AND SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WEAKENS AFTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREATS LAKES AND TRACKS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ONLY LOOKING AT SNOW ACCUMS OF A DUSTING TO 2" AT BEST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 224 AM EST THURSDAY...TONIGHT`S MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN
OVERALL GOOD CONTINUITY DURING THE DAY 4-7 TIME FRAME (SUN-WED)
OFFERING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48
IN SHOWING A MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY DEEPER AND
COLDER OVER TIME...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION
AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW. BEING OF CENTRAL CANADIAN ORIGIN...THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED PRODUCING ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR FLURRIES/SHSN ACROSS OUR AREA AND DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES. NONETHELESS...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESP DURING SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING WHEN THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES CROSSES OUR REGION. OF
FURTHER INTEREST IS THE FACT THAT THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS THAT
A MORE CONCERTED PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MAY MAKE INROADS BACK INTO OUR
REGION BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD. FOR THE SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE...I WISH I
COULD OFFER A POTENTIAL BIGGER STORM SYSTEM OUT THERE ON THE
HORIZON...BUT WITH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS LYING NEARLY ATOP
OUR AREA THE GOMEX/WRN ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAM WILL LIKELY LIE
TOO FAR EAST/OFFSHORE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER FOR NOW. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S SUN/MON...THEN COLDER BEHIND POLAR FRONT WITH
READINGS IN THE TEENS BY TUESDAY...AND 5 TO 15 ABOVE BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS AN INITIAL PROGNOSIS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER (5 TO 15 ABOVE SUN/MON NIGHTS...TRENDING COLDER THEREAFTER).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VRB CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS BACK SIDE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
TERRAIN TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. OUTSIDE A FEW FLURRIES/SHSN MAINLY DRY AT NRN NY
TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK/KPBG WHERE MAINLY BKN/OVC VFR BRIEF MVFR
WILL PREVAIL. AT VERMONT TERMINALS BKN/OVC MVFR OCCNL IFR MORE
LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF AT KBTV BY
18Z OR SO...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER TO NEAR 00Z AT KRUT/KMPV. WINDS
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR
CIGS WITH OCCNL PERIODS OF IFR IN OCCNL PERIODS OF STEADIER LIGHT
SNOWS/SHSN. HIGHEST THREAT OF IFR TO OCCUR SUN/SUN NT WITH PASSAGE
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM...HOWEVER
IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR THEM TO ARRIVE. THUS...THERE IS
NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE RADAR WILL BE
RESTORED TO FULL SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 633 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO BIG
STORMS ARE ON THE HORIZON...SO ANY RAIN OR SNOW WE DO GET WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EST THURSDAY...QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO INTRODUCE
HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AS MID-LEVEL PV WHICH I MENTIONED IN MY PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. LATEST RUC13 NOW SHOWS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AND THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AND INCH OR TWO...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.
AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. TEMPS TODAY CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...BASICALLY RUNNING WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
INTRODUCING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING REALLY SIGNIFICANT WITH A LACK OF ANY REAL
DEEP MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AS THE REMNANTS OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
HIGH WINDS AND SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WEAKENS AFTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREATS LAKES AND TRACKS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ONLY LOOKING AT SNOW ACCUMS OF A DUSTING TO 2" AT BEST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 224 AM EST THURSDAY...TONIGHT`S MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN
OVERALL GOOD CONTINUITY DURING THE DAY 4-7 TIME FRAME (SUN-WED)
OFFERING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48
IN SHOWING A MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY DEEPER AND
COLDER OVER TIME...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION
AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW. BEING OF CENTRAL CANADIAN ORIGIN...THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED PRODUCING ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR FLURRIES/SHSN ACROSS OUR AREA AND DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES. NONETHELESS...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESP DURING SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING WHEN THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES CROSSES OUR REGION. OF
FURTHER INTEREST IS THE FACT THAT THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS THAT
A MORE CONCERTED PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MAY MAKE INROADS BACK INTO OUR
REGION BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD. FOR THE SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE...I WISH I
COULD OFFER A POTENTIAL BIGGER STORM SYSTEM OUT THERE ON THE
HORIZON...BUT WITH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS LYING NEARLY ATOP
OUR AREA THE GOMEX/WRN ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAM WILL LIKELY LIE
TOO FAR EAST/OFFSHORE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER FOR NOW. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S SUN/MON...THEN COLDER BEHIND POLAR FRONT WITH
READINGS IN THE TEENS BY TUESDAY...AND 5 TO 15 ABOVE BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS AN INITIAL PROGNOSIS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER (5 TO 15 ABOVE SUN/MON NIGHTS...TRENDING COLDER THEREAFTER).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VRB CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS BACK SIDE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
TERRAIN TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. OUTSIDE A FEW FLURRIES/SHSN MAINLY DRY AT NRN NY
TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK/KPBG WHERE MAINLY BKN/OVC VFR BRIEF MVFR
WILL PREVAIL. AT VERMONT TERMINALS BKN/OVC MVFR OCCNL IFR MORE
LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF AT KBTV BY
18Z OR SO...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER TO NEAR 00Z AT KRUT/KMPV. WINDS
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR
CIGS WITH OCCNL PERIODS OF IFR IN OCCNL PERIODS OF STEADIER LIGHT
SNOWS/SHSN. HIGHEST THREAT OF IFR TO OCCUR SUN/SUN NT WITH PASSAGE
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM...HOWEVER
IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR THEM TO ARRIVE. THUS...THERE IS
NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE RADAR WILL BE
RESTORED TO FULL SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 625 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO BIG
STORMS ARE ON THE HORIZON...SO ANY RAIN OR SNOW WE DO GET WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EST THURSDAY...QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO INTRODUCE
HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AS MID-LEVEL PV WHICH I MENTIONED IN MY PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. LATEST RUC13 NOW SHOWS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AND THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AND INCH OR TWO...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.
AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. TEMPS TODAY CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...BASICALLY RUNNING WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
INTRODUCING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING REALLY SIGNIFICANT WITH A LACK OF ANY REAL
DEEP MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AS THE REMNANTS OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
HIGH WINDS AND SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WEAKENS AFTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREATS LAKES AND TRACKS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ONLY LOOKING AT SNOW ACCUMS OF A DUSTING TO 2" AT BEST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 224 AM EST THURSDAY...TONIGHT`S MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN
OVERALL GOOD CONTINUITY DURING THE DAY 4-7 TIME FRAME (SUN-WED)
OFFERING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48
IN SHOWING A MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY DEEPER AND
COLDER OVER TIME...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION
AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW. BEING OF CENTRAL CANADIAN ORIGIN...THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED PRODUCING ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR FLURRIES/SHSN ACROSS OUR AREA AND DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES. NONETHELESS...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESP DURING SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING WHEN THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES CROSSES OUR REGION. OF
FURTHER INTEREST IS THE FACT THAT THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS THAT
A MORE CONCERTED PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MAY MAKE INROADS BACK INTO OUR
REGION BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD. FOR THE SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE...I WISH I
COULD OFFER A POTENTIAL BIGGER STORM SYSTEM OUT THERE ON THE
HORIZON...BUT WITH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS LYING NEARLY ATOP
OUR AREA THE GOMEX/WRN ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAM WILL LIKELY LIE
TOO FAR EAST/OFFSHORE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER FOR NOW. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S SUN/MON...THEN COLDER BEHIND POLAR FRONT WITH
READINGS IN THE TEENS BY TUESDAY...AND 5 TO 15 ABOVE BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS AN INITIAL PROGNOSIS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER (5 TO 15 ABOVE SUN/MON NIGHTS...TRENDING COLDER THEREAFTER).

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CONDS ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF IFR AT
KMPV THROUGH 12Z...AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A WEAK RIPPLE OR TWO IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS VT TERMINALS THROUGH MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MAINLY DRY AT NRN NY TERMINALS TO THE
WEST OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE. SOME DRY PERIODS AS WELL. CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME IFR FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
KMPV...BUT AGAIN BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS GENERALLY THE RULE. WINDS
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY MAINLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A TROF OF LOW PRES WL CONT TO DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHCS FOR OCCASIONAL IFR VIS/CIGS
WL BE AT SLK/MPV ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE
EXPECTED AT MSS/BTV/RUT/PBG.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A FAILED POWER
SUPPLY. PARTS ARE ON ORDER TO REPAIR THE PROBLEM...HOWEVER
IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR THEM TO ARRIVE. THUS...THERE IS
NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE RADAR WILL BE
RESTORED TO FULL SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 940 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM THURSDAY...

A DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WAS
DIMINISHING ON RADAR AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
CLEARING LINE WAS ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS U.S. 1...AND THE CLEARING
COULD BE SLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE RAP SOUNDINGS AND ITS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST...PLUS THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST FROM THE
HRRR WRF...INDICATE ONLY GRADUAL DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
WEST TO EAST. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE U.S. 1
CORRIDOR FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... BUT
IT MAY TAKE INTO MID-AFTERNOON OR SO IN MANY PART OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GOLDSBORO. LEFT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ABOUT AS IS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WARMING A CATEGORY IN THE
TRIAD UNDER GOOD SUN AND WHERE KGSO HAS WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S. -DJF

THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND NOSING
ACROSS NC LATER TODAY SLIPS QUICKLY TO OUR SE TONIGHT... AND EXPECT
FAIR SKIES WITH N WIND BACKING AROUND TO W AND SW OVERNIGHT....
LEADING TO STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISING THICKNESSES LATE WITH THE ONSET
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW. HAVE BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO TO 27-30.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER SEASONABLE DAY AS THICKNESSES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMALS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH NO GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT ANY LEVEL... ALTHOUGH A DECK OF MOSTLY MID
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 100-120
M. OVERALL THE COLUMN SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP DESPITE
THE HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DPVA. HIGHS AROUND
50 TO 55... A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO
THE MID 20S FRI NIGHT WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A DRY CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THICKNESS START OUR AROUND 1270M SATURDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT NOT IN TIME TO
MODERATE TEMPS VERY MUCH...WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING TO AROUND 900MB GIVING UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.  WHILE MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE...THE MOISTURE RETURNS IS BRIEF/WEAK
AND MOST LY CONFINED TO THE MID-LEVELS AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BASED ON THIS AND THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED DRYING TREND IN MODEL RUNS.  LOWS 26-30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AT LEAST A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES DIVING OUT OF CANADA AND HELPING TO AMPLIFY
THE TROUGH.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOT IN EVERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OR AMPLITUDE OF SUCH WAVES...AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS A RATHER PRONOUNCED WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GFS HAS WAVES
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE PATTERN STILL FAVORS
MOSTLY DRY SYSTEMS WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR AFTER A BRIEF
WARM UP ON MONDAY.  WITHOUT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ITS DIFFICULT TO
ADD ANY MENTION OF PRECIP TO THE FORECAST.  ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON MONDAY WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE 40S BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z FRI AT INT/GSO.
HOWEVER... AT RDU/FAY AND ESPECIALLY RWI... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO HOLD UNTIL AROUND 16Z-19Z THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL SLIP TO COASTAL NC THIS
MORNING... BRINGING DRIER AIR IN SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY...
KEEPING PLENTY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 1500 AGL AND 6000 AGL. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE AT RDU/RWI
BEFORE 14Z... BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR THEN UNLIMITED SKIES AT RDU/FAY BY 19Z ... AND AT RWI
BY 21Z AS THE FRONT ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
DOMINATE AT ALL SITES FROM SUNSET THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
MONDAY. A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL NC...
FIRST FRI EVENING AND AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT. BETWEEN THESE TIMES...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 955 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.
SOME SNOW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE OF THE ACTIVITY IS
REACHING THE GROUND. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE THREAT OF SNOW
FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING
WORDING BUT NO BIG CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SLOW WAA HAS BEGUN TO TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE NEAR 30 IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH 20S TO THE EAST WHERE WINDS HAVEN`T QUITE
PICKED UP YET. TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF THE CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE WE QUICKLY WARM BY
LATE MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH...WARMING US INTO THE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND BACK THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL MOVE THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH...SO NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...JUST A SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLY BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR 50 DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEFLY TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST BUT ENOUGH TO REALLY
MODIFY THE AIRMASS TOO MUCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...MLK DAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...
MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
WE REMAIN UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO BE IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
DOMINANT AND HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO STAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
BIG STORY THIS CYCLE WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-18 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-28 KTS. WINDS
WILL VEER WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN SPEEDS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  53  29  35  25 /  10  10   0   0
MKL  50  23  31  18 /  10  10  10   0
JBR  51  22  33  21 /  10  10   0   0
TUP  53  28  38  21 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 534 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SLOW WAA HAS BEGUN TO TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE NEAR 30 IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH 20S TO THE EAST WHERE WINDS HAVEN`T QUITE
PICKED UP YET. TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF THE CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE WE QUICKLY WARM BY
LATE MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH...WARMING US INTO THE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND BACK THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL MOVE THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH...SO NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...JUST A SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLY BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR 50 DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEFLY TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST BUT ENOUGH TO REALLY
MODIFY THE AIRMASS TOO MUCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...MLK DAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...
MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
WE REMAIN UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO BE IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
DOMINANT AND HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO STAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
BIG STORY THIS CYCLE WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-18 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-28 KTS. WINDS
WILL VEER WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN SPEEDS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  53  29  35  25 /  10  10   0   0
MKL  50  23  31  18 /  10  10  10   0
JBR  51  22  33  21 /  10  10   0   0
TUP  53  28  38  21 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 434 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SLOW WAA HAS BEGUN TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE NEAR 30 IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 20S TO THE EAST WHERE
WINDS HAVEN`T QUITE PICKED UP YET. TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA LIGHT
SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT FLURRIES MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF THE CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE WE
QUICKLY WARM BY LATE MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LONGWAVE
TROUGH...WARMING US INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND BACK THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL MOVE THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH...SO NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...JUST A SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLY BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR 50 DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEFLY TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST BUT ENOUGH TO REALLY
MODIFY THE AIRMASS TOO MUCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...MLK DAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...
MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
WE REMAIN UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO BE IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
DOMINANT AND HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO STAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN AROUND TO THE S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND INCREASE
TO 10 KTS. AFTER 14Z...SW WINDS OF 12-16 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR. DIRECTION WILL SWITCH TO THE W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT KJBR. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE W
BETWEEN 23-01Z. SPEED WILL ALSO DECREASE TO 8-10 KTS AFTER 0Z.

KRM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  53  29  35  25 /  10  10   0   0
MKL  50  23  31  18 /  10  10  10   0
JBR  51  22  33  21 /  10  10   0   0
TUP  53  28  38  21 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 531 AM PST Thu Jan 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A much quieter weather pattern will continue over the Inland
Northwest as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the region.
While fairly benign weather is expected, areas of fog will be
possible each morning through the rest of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update to this morning forecast to issue a dense fog advisory.
Although we still cannot see the fog on the satellite fog product
(due to high clouds)...local web cams and suggest the fog is
becoming increasingly widespread. Meanwhile with sub-freezing
temperatures we expect that some of the area roads are quite icy
and could make for a hazardous morning commute. Looks like most of
the fog is concentrated around the Spokane area into Post Falls
with the poorest visibilities found on the West Plains. The 12z
Spokane sounding shows a very pronounced...yet shallow inversion.
This suggests the fog should (emphasis on should) be able to
dissipate by midday...and this notion is finally supported by the
latest HRRR model run. We will go with a 11am expiration time for
now however there is a chance it may have to be extended as the
dprog/dt from the hourly model is showing an slowing clearing trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Cloud free sky has allowed for optimal surface cooling and
an inversion to set up over the region. This has produced wide
spread fog and low level stratus with the airfield minimums being
reached at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE. These locations are expected to be near
the minimums until 18Z. The other TAF sites are expected to remain
MVFR with periods of stratus near the surface. With no major changes
to the overall weather pattern expected, this cycle of weather can
expect to return Thursday night. /JDC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  27  37  28  35  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  27  38  29  36  27 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        45  30  41  31  42  31 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       41  30  38  29  42  29 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       41  24  37  30  35  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      40  25  36  27  36  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        39  28  40  29  40  29 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     42  24  37  26  37  26 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      42  28  36  29  37  27 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           36  23  34  28  34  26 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for Coeur
     d`Alene Area.

WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses
     Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan
     Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for Spokane Area.

&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 343 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW WHAT DAYTIME
HEATING THAT OCCURRED TO QUICKLY RADIATE UPWARD DURING THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES FALL SHARPLY DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO DROP
OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PUSH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE 30S AROUND MIDNIGHT. NEAR
FREEZING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INLAND FROM THE
COAST AND OUTSIDE HEAVILY URBANIZED AREAS (I.E. ORLANDO). THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 4 AND
THE SOUTHERN OSCEOLA/OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES WHERE SOME UPPER 20S ARE
POSSIBLE.

FRI...A CHILLY/COLD START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
30S MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL EXPERIENCE A RISE
THROUGH THE UPPER 30S AND INTO THE 40S MID MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WINDS SHOULD FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AND LIGHT MOST OF THE DAY. CLEAR SKIES...FULL SUN AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW AND MID 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SAT-SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCY OVER MUCH OF
THE GOMEX AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGHING
INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL FLATTEN
OUT A BIT BY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A CONTINUED WESTERLY COMPONENT OF
WIND NEAR THE SURFACE.

COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SAT...MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOWER 60S
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. A WARM-UP EXPECTED FOR SUN
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE. WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA SAT
OVERNIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH OF KMCO-KMLB. MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FORECAST NORTH
OF HERE SAT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SUN OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

MON-WED...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN SEABOARD NORTH OF FLORIDA DEAL WITH A CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN THROUGH EARLY TUE AND ANOTHER
SURFACE FRONT PRESSES THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TUE. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW...THOUGH A SMALL POP MAY BE
INTRODUCED LATER BY FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS WITH THIS LATEST
FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD JUST YET
IN THIS COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN.

MON-TUE...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
VALUES FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WITH WED COMING IN A LITTLE COOLER ONCE
AGAIN FOR HIGHS SURROUNDING THE LATEST FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE
AFTERNOON THEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE LATEST LOCAL WRF AND RUC13 MODELS WERE INDICATING
THAT THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS LATE AFTERNOON
THEN CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4PM/21Z THEN WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND E-W ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLC. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NW-N WIND FLOW
AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST IN THE
AFTN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

FRI NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH STRONG
W/NW WINDS INCREASING 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FEET OFFSHORE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. WNW-NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
DURING THE DAY BECOMING 10-15 KTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A
TAIL END OF ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT
OVERNIGHT CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN WITH WNW
WINDS NORTH OF THE CAPE INCREASING IN UPWARDS OF 15-20 KTS VERY
LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD ON SAT TO 5-7 FT WELL OFFSHORE AND 3-5 FT NEAR
SHORE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE AND 3-4 FT NEAR
SHORE SAT NIGHT.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS STEADILY
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON SUN AND REMAINING BELOW 15 KTS ON MON
WHILE KEEPING A WESTERLY COMPONENT. SEAS 4-6 FT OFFSHORE/NORTH OF
THE CAPE SUN WILL ALSO STEADILY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRI-MON...RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS ON FRI...WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF ORLANDO DOWN
TOWARDS OKEECHOBEE FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRI OVERNIGHT NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN RETURNING
FOR SAT. RH`S FROM NEAR KISSIMMEE NORTHWARD WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
WITH 30S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE SAT AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RETURN FOR SUN-MON. 20 FT/TRANSPORT
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  32  65  39  54 /  10  10  10   0
MCO  34  65  43  56 /  10  10  10   0
MLB  34  65  44  56 /  10  10  10   0
VRB  35  65  46  59 /  10  10  10   0
LEE  32  64  41  54 /  10  10  10   0
SFB  34  66  42  56 /  10  10  10   0
ORL  35  65  44  55 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  34  65  48  58 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INDIAN RIVER-
     INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE-SEMINOLE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 1150 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

Mid level shortwave and associated vorticity was located over IA and
NE around 09Z and will continue to dig southward through out the day
today. This wave is pushing a surface cold front southward which is
currently located across portions of southeast and south central NE.
Winds ahead of the front are light out of the west although directly
behind the front become northwesterly and increase rapidly. Forecast
soundings continue to show that the boundary will mix into 50-60 kts
winds as early as 10 am lasting through most of the afternoon. There
are a few factors that could limit the momentum transfer of the wind
today which include weak subsidence and stratus within the mixing
layer. The stratus should remain confined to far northeast KS during
the afternoon hours while partly cloudy elsewhere. The last few runs
of the RAP and HRRR continue to agree that most areas along and
north of interstate 35 will experience surface gusts around 35-45
kts and approaching 50 kts in the far northwest portion of the
forecast area. Therefore have upgraded the advisory to a high wind
warning in that location. The strongest wind gusts should subside
around sunset this evening although will remain gusty through most
of the night. High temperatures today are generally in the 40s
although look to occur mostly before noon. There is a slight chance
for sprinkles and or flurries in far northeast KS during the
afternoon and evening as a vort max rotates through the trough axis.
During the afternoon cold air advection increases sending
temperatures into the mid to upper 10s by Friday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

A longer wave-length upper level trough will continue across the
east central conus with a longer wave-length upper level ridge
along the the western coast of North America through the forecast
period.

The amplified upper level trough across the eastern conus will move
east into the mid Atlantic states on Sunday. A secondary upper level
trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes States into the Mid
Atlantic States on Sunday.

Friday and Friday night, a surface ridge of high pressure will shift
southeast of the CWA by late afternoon. Northwest winds will
diminish during the early afternoon hours and become southerly
across north central KS. Highs Friday will only reach the lower to
mid 30s across northeast and east central KS, with lower 40s across
north central KS. Lows Friday night will drop into the 20s, shortly
after midnight with temperatures remaining steady or lowly rising
through the morning hours of Saturday.

Saturday, as the H5 trough digs southeast across the Great Lakes a weak
cold front will push southward across the CWA during the afternoon
hours. Highs ahead of the front should warm into the upper 40s to
around 50 degrees across much of the CWA. Temperatures across the
northern counties could slowly fall through the 40s during the mid
and late afternoon hours as winds shift from the west-southwest to
the northwest.

Sunday, The upper flow will become more zonal as a lee surface
trough deepens across western KS and southeast CO. Southwest surface
winds will advect warmer downslope air northeast across central
and eastern KS. Highs will warm into the mid 50s to around 60
degrees with mostly sunny skies.

Another upper level trough will dig southeast out west central
Canada and across the northern plains, and into the mid MS river
valley and OH river valley. This will bring a surge of colder air
southward across the northern plains into eastern KS. Highs on
Monday will cool into the mid 40s to around 50 and down into the
30s to around 40 on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

VFR conditions should persist. Strong northwest winds will
continue to be the biggest impact. A few gusts may breach the
forecast, but think they will hold the vast majority of
conditions. BKN deck could drop down to near MVFR levels but again
expect brief issues at worst.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ009>012-021>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ008-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1025 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AT THE 500MB
LEVEL STRONG 585DM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH EASTERN
FLANK EXTENDING TO GREAT BASIN...AND 511DM CLOSED LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN CANADA. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
DEEP SURFACE-300MB UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE PLAINS. UPSTREAM VWP WOULD INDICATE A 75+ JET AT 700MB AND
95+JET AT 500MB ALREADY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A STRONG PV15
HEIGHT ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN LINE WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ROUNDING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT
BY MID LEVEL DRYING ON WV IMAGERY WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS/EASTERN MONTANA. EAST OF THIS IS A PLUME MOISTURE ON WV
IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS DECK.

AXIS OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OVER CWA AS FRONT
QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS
POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH ACROSS SW CWA DURING THE DAY. AREA OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON WV IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OVER OUR
CWA...SUPPORTING GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION AND CLEARING IN THE EAST.
HIGH CLOUDS COULD HAVE IMPACT ON MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY IN THE
WEST...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY DRY
MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENT ORIENTATION OF
MOISTURE PLUME ON WV MATCHING H5-H3 MODEL RH WOULD INDICATE
CIRRUS MAINLY IMPACTING OUR FAR WEST/SW WHERE MODEL WINDS ARE
ALREADY LIGHTER.

LATEST RAP HAS COME IN STRONGER WITH WIND AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER
OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND GREELEY KS NEAR 50KT. ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE IS LOWER WITH VALUES IN THE 35-45KT RANGE...AND
LATEST HRRR WIND GUST FIELD KEEPS GUSTS SUB WARNING OVER THESE
COUNTIES. WITH CONCERN ALREADY REGARDING CLOUDS I THINK THE
ONGOING WIND ADVISORY COVERS POTENTIAL GUSTS FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES..

TOP OF MIXED LAYER ON ALL GUIDANCE ACROSS REST OF CWA IS IN THE
800-780MB LAYER AND STILL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-55KT RANGE.
ALL MODELS SHOW MUCH STRONGER WINDS IN THE 60KT+ RANGE (MATCH
TRENDS ON UPSTREAM VWP)...AND IF THESE STRONGER WINDS WERE TO
MIX DOWN WE COULD SEE WINDS AS HIGH AS 80MPH. BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL MIXING HEIGHTS THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT IT IS WORTH
MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE DAYTIME UPDATES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING BY THIS WEEKEND. WHILE WE GET A REPRIEVE FROM
WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD
BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (GUSTS 45MPH+) TO OUR CWA. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

NEXT WEEK LOOKS SIMILAR TO THIS WEEK WITH MILD TEMPS AND A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IN SIGHT GIVEN THE
CURRENT PATTERN. AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE A SHOT OF
COLD AIR ARRIVING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AIR WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG AS THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE FARTHER EAST.

SENSIBLE WX BENIGN FOR THE PERIOD. MILD ON SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH 850MB
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE RECORD HIGHS AT MCK AND HLC
WHICH ARE ONLY 66. GEM IS SIMILAR...BUT GFS IS NOT AS WARM. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
SUNDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE AIR
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER JET AXIS WILL BE LOCATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING
SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50-60KT RANGE BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST THU JAN 16 2014

REGARDING RFW CONDITIONS...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY/CURED
FUELS THERE IS A CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. THE ONE
CAVEAT IS RH VALUES RIGHT AT 20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
APPROACHING 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST TODAY. WHILE THESE RH VALUES ARE
CERTAINLY MARGINAL IN THE WEST...AFTER PREVIOUSLY COORDINATING
WITH PARTNERS IT WAS DECIDED TO COVER OUR ENTIRE AREA WITH AN
RFW DURING THE EVENING SHIFT...AND I SEE NO REASON TO MAKE A CHANGE
CONSIDERING THE IMPACT OF THE WINDS ON THE ALREADY CURED FUELS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-042.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ041.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 1202 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

Light snow has been falling across portions of southern Indiana and
west central Kentucky this morning. Area webcams show any
accumulations are mainly on sidewalks and grassy surfaces, though
there have been some reports of slick roads under the heaviest
bursts of snow. All in all, accumulations should be fairly light
through the day with a dusting to up to an inch of snow possible. Am
a bit unsure about how much of this precipitation will change over
to rain this afternoon as temperatures are difficult. Extensive
cloud cover and precipitation will be offset by strong southerly
winds. In general, trended temps down a few degrees this afternoon.
Also went ahead and issued a Special Weather Statement for south and
east central Kentucky discussing the possibility of snow
accumulations tonight and tomorrow.

Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

Forecast this morning looks largely on track.  Latest radar imagery
looks a bit more menacing than reality, as it appears it`s taking
awhile for the low-levels to saturate enough to get precip to the
ground.  The best band of snow so far has been in and around the STL
metro, where there have been a few reports of accumulations near an
inch.  The latest RAP and HRRR have a pretty good handle on this
band of snow, and actually weaken it substantially as it heads into
the LMK CWA this morning.  Looking at the last few frames of the
radar mosaic, this appears to already be occurring.  The HRRR does
however develop additional precipitation behind this initial batch
for this afternoon, which may be more of a rain/snow mix along the
Ohio River, with more snow possible in southern Indiana.  All in
all, amounts of up to an inch still look good across southern
Indiana, with up to a few tenths of an inch possible along the Ohio
River.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

...Light snow accumulations possible today through Friday...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a broad, deep trough
across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, thanks to an amplified,
blocking ridge across the eastern Pacific.  Multiple disturbances
will drop through this trough aloft this period, bringing a few
chances for precipitation.

Current water vapor imagery depicts the first quick-hitting
shortwave trough diving southeast through portions of Iowa this
morning.  Ascent ahead of this feature has led to a band of snow
across MO and IL.  Surface observations show much of this snow not
hitting the ground, likely due to a rather dry sub-cloud layer.
However, the band appears to have intensified a bit (Quincy, IL now
down to 2SM in light snow) over the past hour, and expect a slow
strengthening trend to continue through the morning hours.  This
band will approach southern IN by morning, spreading into northern
KY by late morning.

One complicating factor to the forecast today will be the brisk
southwesterly winds, which will likely push temperatures above
freezing in most locations.  However, forecast soundings depict
rather dry low-level air, which will keep wet bulb temperatures
below freezing for much of northern KY and southern IN through the
afternoon.  Therefore, despite surface temperatures creeping above
freezing, think precip will fall as mostly snow through noon.  By
early afternoon, enough warm air may work in to change the precip
over to a rain/snow mix for areas along the Ohio River, but southern
IN will likely remain snow throughout much of the event.
South-central KY will not see much precipitation at all today, but
anything that does fall will likely just be light rain/drizzle.  Any
snow accumulations will be confined to areas along and north of
I-64.  Up to an inch may be possible across far northern Dubois,
Orange, Washington, Scott, and Jefferson IN counties, tapering to
only a  tenth or two further south in areas along the Ohio River
(including the Louisville metro).  Will be issuing an SPS to
highlight these possible light accumulations.

A surface cold front will push through the region tonight, bringing
an end to the "warmer" temperatures as cooler air quickly pushes
in.  Forecast soundings show lapse rates quickly steepening, which
will support convective snow showers overnight.  Typically, these
type of showers tend to thrive more in the daylight hours given
better available instability.  Hi-res guidance remains split on just
how widespread these showers will be overnight, leading to a low
confidence forecast with respect to coverage.  Given the low-level
profiles coupled with the forcing from the upper-level trough axis
swinging through, think 30-40 pops seem reasonable overnight,
increasing to 40-50 by the daylight hours Friday.  The best coverage
will likely be late Friday morning/early afternoon across the
Northern Bluegrass and the Cumberland region, due to upslope flow
and the trough axis swinging through at a more favorable time of
day.  As is typical in these scenarios, snowfall amounts will be
quite variable.  Some locations could receive amounts in excess of
an inch, while others see nothing.  These showers could be moving
through during the morning commute, so there may be some negative
impacts from these snow showers Friday morning. These impacts,
coupled with possible amounts in excess of an inch in some
locations, may warrant a Winter Weather Advisory in coming forecasts
once confidence in timing/coverage/intensity increases.

After highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s today, the passing cold
front will drop readings into the low and mid 20s tonight.
Temperatures will not recover much at all on Friday due to the
strong cold air advection, remaining in the low to mid 20s.  By
Friday afternoon/evening, wind chills will be in the upper single
digits to lower teens!

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

The long term will be characterized by general troughing over the
eastern CONUS and ridging over the west. Multiple shortwaves will
dive through this northwesterly flow and reinforce the trough and
bring chances for snow showers to the region. Confidence is fairly
high that temperatures will run mostly below normal, but there is
much more uncertainty in the timing of any disturbances and
associated snow chances, as well as the magnitude of the temp
departures.

A fairly vigorous Clipper will dive SE into the upper Ohio Valley
late on Saturday, with snow chances in our north and east.
Tremendous bust potential with Sat afternoon max temps, as the GFS
MOS seems to reflect stronger warm advection into west-central KY
resulting in temps nearly 10 degrees warmer than any other guidance.
Have stayed with raw model consensus, which ranges from lower 30s
over the Bluegrass to upper 30s near BWG. Light accumulations
possible Sat night, especially toward the Bluegrass region.

Dry weather and moderating temps Sunday into Monday as heights rise
and a flatter pattern aloft directs the Clippers more across the
Great Lakes. The pattern becomes more amplified toward the middle of
the week, as the cold air is reinforced again. Not confident enough
to include POPs this far out. Temps will trend colder than the
previous forecast, but not as cold as the latest extended GFS MOS,
which is about 10 degrees colder than previous runs for Wed-Thu.
ECMWF is progressive enough that the core of the cold air never
quite settles into the Ohio Valley. Lows in the teens and highs in
the 20s seem to be a safe bet, but it remains to be seen whether we
will be on the higher end or the lower end of that range.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2014

Light snow continues to move across the area this afternoon and will
mainly affect SDF and LEX. Visibilities at SDF will bounce between
MVFR and IFR over the next few hours before this batch of light snow
moves out. This is weakening as it moves east, so reductions to IFR
visibility at LEX are less certain this afternoon. Winds today will
continue to be out of the south with gusts to 20 knots at times.

Winds will shift to westerly tonight as a cold front crosses the
area. They will again become gusty during the morning hours
tomorrow. An upper level disturbance crossing the area late tonight
into tomorrow will bring another round of snow showers which will
reduce visibilities and ceilings. However, timing of the heavier
bands is rather uncertain at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 335 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

995 MB SFC LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WI/MI BORDER HAS BEEN SLOWLY
FILLING TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS LOW HAS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT NOW
ROLLING SOUTH ACROSS IA. 6-10 MB 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE ARCTIC FRONTS WAKE HAS HELPED WINDS GUST
TO AROUND 50 MPH FOR WHERE THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. THESE HAVE NOT BEEN THE STRONGEST WINDS HOWEVER...AS WIND
GUSTS HAVE BEEN PUSHING 60 MPH FROM SE SODAK INTO WRN IA...IN
ACCORDANCE WITH WHERE THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST H85 WINDS ARE GOING.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE
OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THESE UPPER WAVES HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT SNOW JOINING
IN WITH THE BLOWING SNOW...WHICH HAS HELPED WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.

AS FOR THE HEADLINES...TEMPERATURES THAT GOT UP TO BETWEEN 32 AND 35
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THE MORNING MOISTENED UP THE
SNOW PACK ENOUGH TO MAKE THE SNOW A LITTLE LESS BLOWABLE. THIS HAS
LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES WE HAVE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST AT THE 10 FOOT LEVEL WHERE AIRPORT
VISIBILITY EQUIPMENT RESIDES. HOWEVER...SEEING PICTURES ON SOCIAL
MEDIA FROM ACROSS THE AREA AND MNDOT WEBCAMS...WE ARE SEEING THAT
DOWN CLOSER TO GROUND LEVEL...THE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE A BIT WORSE
AT TIMES...WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED. EVEN IF THE
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING OBSERVED...THE SNOW BLOWING ACROSS
THE ROADWAYS IS RESULTING IN VERY ICY CONDITIONS ON THE ROADS...AND
WHEN COMBINING ICY ROADS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH PUSHING
VEHICLES AROUND...TRAVEL REMAINS QUITE TREACHEROUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...MADE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES.

LOOKING AT WINDS...THEY LIKELY REACHED THEIR PEAK BETWEEN NOON AND 3
PM. WITH THE ISALLOBARIC HIGH NOW PUSHING INTO THE SIOUX FALLS
AREA...WE WILL START TO SLOWLY SEE THEM SUBSIDE THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS WELL.

OF COURSE THESE WINDS HAVE ALSO BROUGHT IN SOME MUCH COLDER AIR...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE FACT THAT SINCE GETTING TO THE OFFICE HERE IN
CHANHASSEN AT 7 THIS MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE HAS FALLEN FROM ITS
DOWNRIGHT BALMY 34 DOWN TO JUST 9 ABOVE AT 3 PM. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND THIS IS WITH WIND CHILLS. AT THE
MOMENT...APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING ARE FORECAST
TO DIP TO BETWEEN -25 AND -30 TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...MEANING A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS
EVENING. WE ALREADY HAVE THE WIND CHILLS MENTIONED IN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...SO SUSPECT THAT ONCE IT IS DECIDED TO DROP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IT WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

AFTER TONIGHT...REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS PRETTY QUITE AS A SFC
RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY...GIVING US A RATHER COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SKIES CLEAR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...RECENT HISTORY
OF MODEL PERFORMANCE WOULD SAY TO AVOID THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE...SO HAVE FAVORED LOWS TONIGHT TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
ECMWF AND RAW MODEL DATA...WHICH STILL GIVES YOU LOWS AROUND -10 IN
THE WEST...ZERO IN THE TWIN CITIES AND AROUND 5 ABOVE IN THE FAR
EASTERN MPX AREA.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

ALMOST A BROKEN RECORD FOR THIS WINTER SEASON AS THE NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW NORMAL WITH SEVERAL SHRTWV/S
EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW KEEPING CHC/S OF SNOW THRU THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THIS NW FLOW...MOST OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK AND FAST IN TERMS OF DEVELOPING AND ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION IN A 12 TO 24 HR PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE SHRTWV/S
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTN. AS WITH MOST CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS...PWATS ARE
LOW KEEPING SNOWFALL RATIOS HIGH OR ROUGHLY 20 TO 25-1.
THEREFORE...EVEN A LOW AMT OF QPF 0.10 TO 0.20"...WILL TRANSLATE
TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...THE
STRONG NATURE OF HOW THESE SYSTEM WRAP UP QUICKLY OR
INTENSIFY...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BECOME A PROBLEM. THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY NOTED IN WC/SC MN WHERE TODAY/S SYSTEM BROUGHT
BLIZZARD CONDS TO THE AREA. ONE MINOR CHG TO SUNDAY/S FORECAST IS
TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIS IS BASED ON A MORE NW FLOW AND
KEEPS THE WARMER PACIFIC AIR MASS FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. A BIGGER CONCERN DEVELOPS OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST TIME
FRAME WHICH IS THE WEEKEND OF JAN 25TH. AS WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THE FIRST WEEK OF
JANUARY...THERE IS A SIMILAR SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA THE WEEKEND OF JAN 25/26TH. 85H TEMPS ARE SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
HOW COLD IT COULD GET ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

WINDS BEGINNING INTENSIFY AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THAT IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING IOWA. PRESSURE RISES ON THE
ORDER OF 10 MB IN 3 HRS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH NODAK HELPING TO
BOOST WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST. CURRENT TAFS HAD WINDS HANDLED
WELL...SO CHANGED THEM LITTLE. VIS STARTING TO RESPOND TO THIS
SECOND BURST OF WIND AS WELL...SO DID TEMPO IN SOME 1/2SM VSBYS IN
BLSN FOR AXN/RWF. CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AS SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER WAVE OVER THE ARROWHEAD DROPS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PER THE HRRR AND RAP. GFSLAMP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO FOLLOWED THAT AS A
START FOR BRINGING -SN AND MVFR CIGS BACK. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
TO SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH THIS CLEARING
LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THE EAU AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRI.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST...BUT DO BELIEVE
CURRENT TAF IS ON THE HIGHER END OF WHERE WE WILL SEE THINGS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SNOW MOVING BACK IN...BUT WITH THE
HRRR AND GFSLAMP SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
REINTRODUCE -SN AND MVFR CONDS. HARD TO SAY IF CIGS WILL RETURN TO
MVFR CONDS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...AS BLSN IS CONTAMINATING MANY
OF THE LOWER CIGS WE ARE SEEING TO THE NW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR AND -SN DEVELOPING. WINDS S AT 15KTS.
SAT...MVFR/-SN IN MORNING...THEN VFR. WINDS NW AT 20G30KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ041-047>049-
     054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     050>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1227 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

THE LONG AWAITED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...AND THESE WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE LACK OF
FALLING SNOW WILL CONFINE THE PURE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS TO OPEN
AREAS. HOWEVER ROADS ARE ALREADY CLOSED IN NORTHWEST MN...SO WOULD
EXPECT THESE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
MN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEAR 50KT GUST POTENTIAL WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH 40KT GUSTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE
DAY. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
VORT MAX ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ROLLS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH FRIDAY MORNING LOWS BOTTOMING
OUT NEAR -10F ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...NEAR ZERO ACROSS EASTERN
MN...AND SINGLE DIGITS IN WESTERN WI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

WITH THE POTENT BLIZZARD-MAKING SYSTEM HAVING SHIFTED INTO THE ERN
GRT LKS BY FRI MRNG...A SPOKE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDING NEWD FROM ITS
CENTER OVER SRN SD/NRN IA WILL SLIDE E OVER THE AREA DURG THE DAY
FRI. THIS WILL ONLY BE A SHORT-LIVED BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE
TROF OVER THE ERN NOAM STRENGTHENS...MAKING MORE OF A MERIDIONAL
UPR LVL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NOAM. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW A COMPACT LOW
PRES CENTER DRIVE SSE FROM WRN CANADA INTO MN FRI NIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL THEN EJECT OUT INTO WI/IL BY MIDDAY SAT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH AMONG THE MODELS IN BOTH TIMING AND IMPACTS AS IT LOOKS TO
CARRY ENOUGH LIFT AND QPF TO PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL-ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MRNG. HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR DURG THE DAY ON FRI AS ITS PROGRESS HAS SLOWED A BIT...BUT IT
WILL PUSH THRU THE CWFA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MRNG. TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE SNOW WILL BE A DRY POWDERY SNOW...
THEN COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...ATTM...WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO BE NOT STRONG ENOUGH SUCH THAT BLIZZARD CONDS WOULD
DEVELOP. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN NO ORGANIZED
STORM SYSTEMS LOOK TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON QUITE THE ROLLER
COASTER OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES IN THE H5
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RIDGE-LIKE WAVES THAT WILL RESULT IN
SOME WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCEMENT OF THE ERN TROF
WITH A WRN RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
TO DROP INTO THE REGION STARTING TUE. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 30S
BY SUN...THEN DROP BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

WINDS BEGINNING INTENSIFY AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THAT IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING IOWA. PRESSURE RISES ON THE
ORDER OF 10 MB IN 3 HRS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH NODAK HELPING TO
BOOST WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST. CURRENT TAFS HAD WINDS HANDLED
WELL...SO CHANGED THEM LITTLE. VIS STARTING TO RESPOND TO THIS
SECOND BURST OF WIND AS WELL...SO DID TEMPO IN SOME 1/2SM VSBYS IN
BLSN FOR AXN/RWF. CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AS SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER WAVE OVER THE ARROWHEAD DROPS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PER THE HRRR AND RAP. GFSLAMP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO FOLLOWED THAT AS A
START FOR BRINGING -SN AND MVFR CIGS BACK. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
TO SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH THIS CLEARING
LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THE EAU AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRI.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST...BUT DO BELIEVE
CURRENT TAF IS ON THE HIGHER END OF WHERE WE WILL SEE THINGS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SNOW MOVING BACK IN...BUT WITH THE
HRRR AND GFSLAMP SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
REINTRODUCE -SN AND MVFR CONDS. HARD TO SAY IF CIGS WILL RETURN TO
MVFR CONDS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...AS BLSN IS CONTAMINATING MANY
OF THE LOWER CIGS WE ARE SEEING TO THE NW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR AND -SN DEVELOPING. WINDS S AT 15KTS.
SAT...MVFR/-SN IN MORNING...THEN VFR. WINDS NW AT 20G30KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ041-047>049-
     054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     050>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 257 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA
REGION AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO MOST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...

SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACRS ERN ZONES AND FLURRIES ARE NOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THUS HV EXPANDED FLURRIES BACK
TO THE WEST AND EXPECT THESE SHUD DIMINISH BY 18Z AS DRIER LOW-LVL
AIR WORKS IN.

HV ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLRNG
AS 12Z RAOB FM KBUF INDICATED SATD LYR ARND 800MB. HV FOLLOWED
850-700MB RH FIELDS FM RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING WITH
AREAS ALONG I-81 RMNG MOCLDY THRU 16Z AND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EAST FM THERE. THUS, LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH
CLRNG DELAYED. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCO BLO...

SCT -SHSN CONTINUE ACRS ERN ZONES. WATER VAPOR SHOW THE UPR LVL
TROF MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS AND THIS WILL BRING THIS ACTIVITY TO
AN END LATER THIS MRNG. WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SEE
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTN WITH MAXES GNRLY IN THE L/M30S.

BROADENING TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH SVRL S/WV`S HELPING TO CARVE
OUT THIS FEATURE. INITIAL S/WV AND SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEWD ACRS
THE CNTRL GTLAKES ON FRI...KEEPING BEST SYNOPTIC MSTR TO OUR NW.
SLGT CHC POPS AFTER 06Z FOR THE POTNL OF SOME FLURRIES MOVG INTO
THE REGION DUE TO THIS FEATURE. MINS MAINLY IN THE M20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROF CONTINUES. NEXT S/WV MOVS THRU
LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG WITH HINTS OF A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING ACRS
PA. GOOD FORCING WITH THIS COMPACT SYSTEM IN THE QVEC AND DEF
FIELDS. NXT S/WV APRCHS SAT NGT. NAM/GEM TRACK THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE TN VLY WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACRS THE MID ATLC
STATES...SUGGESTING THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE SIG
EFFECTS ON THE BGM CWA. THE GFS/EURO SUGGEST A MORE NRLY TRACK AND
INDICATE POTNL FOR -SHSN AND LGT ACCUMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WE
LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. WE DO NOTE THAT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME RNG.
IF ONE OF THESE S/WV`S AMPLIFIES MORE THAN CRNTLY INDICATED...WE
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM WITH THEM. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTNL WOULD APPEAR TO BE LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG ACRS THE POCONOS
AND SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A VERY ACTIVE AND INTERESTING FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING MULT SHORTWAVE TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THESE CLIPPERS WILL BRING COOLER
AIR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR NY AND PA. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

THE MAIN EXCITEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DURING THE
TIME PERIOD OF WED/THURS WHEN A PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR BREAKS OFF
FROM THE POLAR VORTEX. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -25 DEGREES
CELSIUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED WITH 1000MB TO 500MB
HEIGHT THICKNESS IN THE 490S. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER THE
REGION TO BE QUITE COLD. LOW TEMPS WED AND THURS MORNING WILL BE
QUITE COLD AND FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. WINDS WITH THIS ARCTIC
BLAST WILL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE LAST BLAST
THUS... WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW -20 ATTM.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1255 PM EST UPDATE...
A STUBBORN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NY. THESE BANDS WILL HOPEFULLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TRYING
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS IN CIGS SHOULD
BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AND LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION. FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SNOW. DECIDED TO PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON THE START TIME OF THIS EVENT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT TO TUES...OCNL RESTRICTIONS FROM -SHSN THRU THE PD...AS
MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 1256 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA
REGION AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO MOST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...

SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACRS ERN ZONES AND FLURRIES ARE NOW
OCCURRING ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THUS HV EXPANDED FLURRIES BACK
TO THE WEST AND EXPECT THESE SHUD DIMINISH BY 18Z AS DRIER LOW-LVL
AIR WORKS IN.

HV ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLRNG
AS 12Z RAOB FM KBUF INDICATED SATD LYR ARND 800MB. HV FOLLOWED
850-700MB RH FIELDS FM RUC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING WITH
AREAS ALONG I-81 RMNG MOCLDY THRU 16Z AND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EAST FM THERE. THUS, LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH
CLRNG DELAYED. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCO BLO...

SCT -SHSN CONTINUE ACRS ERN ZONES. WATER VAPOR SHOW THE UPR LVL
TROF MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS AND THIS WILL BRING THIS ACTIVITY TO
AN END LATER THIS MRNG. WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SEE
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTN WITH MAXES GNRLY IN THE L/M30S.

BROADENING TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH SVRL S/WV`S HELPING TO CARVE
OUT THIS FEATURE. INITIAL S/WV AND SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEWD ACRS
THE CNTRL GTLAKES ON FRI...KEEPING BEST SYNOPTIC MSTR TO OUR NW.
SLGT CHC POPS AFTER 06Z FOR THE POTNL OF SOME FLURRIES MOVG INTO
THE REGION DUE TO THIS FEATURE. MINS MAINLY IN THE M20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROF CONTINUES. NEXT S/WV MOVS THRU
LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG WITH HINTS OF A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING ACRS
PA. GOOD FORCING WITH THIS COMPACT SYSTEM IN THE QVEC AND DEF
FIELDS. NXT S/WV APRCHS SAT NGT. NAM/GEM TRACK THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE TN VLY WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACRS THE MID ATLC
STATES...SUGGESTING THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE SIG
EFFECTS ON THE BGM CWA. THE GFS/EURO SUGGEST A MORE NRLY TRACK AND
INDICATE POTNL FOR -SHSN AND LGT ACCUMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WE
LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. WE DO NOTE THAT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME RNG.
IF ONE OF THESE S/WV`S AMPLIFIES MORE THAN CRNTLY INDICATED...WE
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM WITH THEM. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTNL WOULD APPEAR TO BE LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG ACRS THE POCONOS
AND SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR ARCTIC AIR MASS DESCENDING ON REGION
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING COLDER AND NOW
JOINS ECMWF IN HAVING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES INTO THE 490S
DECAMETER RANGE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED COLDER REFLECTING LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE /AND MODEL TRENDS/. FURTHER LOWERING MAY BE NEEDED IF
UPCOMING RUNS CONTINUE DOWN THIS PATH...AS SUGGESTED BY RAW MODEL
00Z GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

AHEAD OF THAT...GENERAL THEME OF LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE
SAME...PASSING CLIPPERS OFFERING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AS DISCUSSED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN ENDLESS LINE IN A PARADE OF CLIPPERS WL AFFECT THE CWA THRU THE
END OF THE EXTNDD. STRONG S/WV WL DROP THRU THE UPR MIDWEST INTO
THE OH VLY FM 00Z-12Z SUNDAY. AS IT HEADS EAST ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE IT WL WEAKEN AND MAY SPREAD LGT SNOW INTO THE AREA SUN
MRNG. HWVR UNCERTAINTY IS ENUF TO KEEP JUST SLGT CHC POPS SOUTH OF
THE STATE LINE WITH THE MAIN CHC EXPECTED TO BE IN LK EFFECT
ZONES.

FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT PROGGED TO MV THRU PER 12Z GFS AND EC DRG THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY 12Z MONDAY AS EURO DVLPS SFC
LOW ACRS CWA AND GFS INDICATES JUST A WK TROF MVG THRU. OPTED TO GO
WITH JUST 20 POPS THRU THIS TIME, HIGHER THAN WPC GRIDS INDICATE.
YET ANOTHER WV MVS THRU TUE INTO TUE NGT WITH CHC SNOW SHOWERS THRU
THE END OF THE LONG TERM. 12Z EURO SHOWING SIGNS OF DEEP H5 LOW
DVLPNG ACRS NERN U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THICKNESS VALUES BLO
500DM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1255 PM EST UPDATE...
A STUBBORN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NY. THESE BANDS WILL HOPEFULLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TRYING
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS IN CIGS SHOULD
BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AND LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION. FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SNOW. DECIDED TO PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON THE START TIME OF THIS EVENT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT TO TUES...OCNL RESTRICTIONS FROM -SHSN THRU THE PD...AS
MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MDP/PVN
AVIATION...KAH











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 142 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM THURSDAY...

A DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WAS
DIMINISHING ON RADAR AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
CLEARING LINE WAS ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS U.S. 1...AND THE CLEARING
COULD BE SLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE RAP SOUNDINGS AND ITS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST...PLUS THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST FROM THE
HRRR WRF...INDICATE ONLY GRADUAL DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
WEST TO EAST. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE U.S. 1
CORRIDOR FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... BUT
IT MAY TAKE INTO MID-AFTERNOON OR SO IN MANY PART OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GOLDSBORO. LEFT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ABOUT AS IS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WARMING A CATEGORY IN THE
TRIAD UNDER GOOD SUN AND WHERE KGSO HAS WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S. -DJF

THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND NOSING
ACROSS NC LATER TODAY SLIPS QUICKLY TO OUR SE TONIGHT... AND EXPECT
FAIR SKIES WITH N WIND BACKING AROUND TO W AND SW OVERNIGHT....
LEADING TO STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISING THICKNESSES LATE WITH THE ONSET
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW. HAVE BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO TO 27-30.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER SEASONABLE DAY AS THICKNESSES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMALS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH NO GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT ANY LEVEL... ALTHOUGH A DECK OF MOSTLY MID
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 100-120
M. OVERALL THE COLUMN SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP DESPITE
THE HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DPVA. HIGHS AROUND
50 TO 55... A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO
THE MID 20S FRI NIGHT WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
(ALBEIT DRY) IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE DICTATED PRIMARILY BY A
`FINAL` ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ AND AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER-
TYPE SFC LOW APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NW ON SAT BEFORE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT. THE LATEST 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY FOR CENTRAL NC...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM (LITTLE CHANCE FOR MOISTURE
RECOVERY) AND THAT THE BEST DPVA /LAYER-LIFTING/ WILL OCCUR WELL TO
THE NORTH IN VICINITY OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY IN ASSOC/W COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT. ONE WOULD THINK TEMPERATURES SAT
NIGHT WOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FALLING GIVEN A TIGHTENING MSLP
GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NW...THOUGH EVEN SEVERAL HOURS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AFTER SUNSET COULD EASILY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S
GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC CLIPPER LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH... ANTICIPATE THAT A RELATIVELY
TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S IF A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE IS PRESENT MOST OF THE EVENING/NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BRIEF RETURN
TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BY SUN/MON. EXPECT
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE SAT NIGHT CLIPPER LOW...WITH A MODERATING TREND ON MON/MON
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A MORE ACTIVE/AMPLIFIED `EAST COAST TROUGH` TYPE
PATTERN APPEARS POISED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY MID-WEEK...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS
PRECIPITATION LATE TUE/EARLY WED AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
WED/THU. GIVEN THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN A LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH YET TO DEVELOP...AND THAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
HAD A RELATIVELY DIFFICULT TIME (W/REGARD TO QPF) IN THE SIMILAR
PATTERN IN PLACE THIS WEEK...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
120+ HRS OUT. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND THAT THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERATE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP LATE TUE/EARLY WED...PREFER
TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM THURSDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH 22Z. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PERSIST THEN THROUGH THE 18Z
VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND SLOWLY BACK...WITH A FEW
SOUTHWEST GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20KT DEVELOPING WITH MIXING
FRIDAY MORNING.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE FRIDAY EVENING...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS
FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRWI WHERE THE GFS FORECAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S KTS. THE GFS MODEL ALSO
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY TOWARD KFAY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OTHERWISE A HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DJF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 131 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM THURSDAY...

A DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WAS
DIMINISHING ON RADAR AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
CLEARING LINE WAS ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS U.S. 1...AND THE CLEARING
COULD BE SLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE RAP SOUNDINGS AND ITS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST...PLUS THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST FROM THE
HRRR WRF...INDICATE ONLY GRADUAL DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
WEST TO EAST. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE U.S. 1
CORRIDOR FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... BUT
IT MAY TAKE INTO MID-AFTERNOON OR SO IN MANY PART OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GOLDSBORO. LEFT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ABOUT AS IS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WARMING A CATEGORY IN THE
TRIAD UNDER GOOD SUN AND WHERE KGSO HAS WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S. -DJF

THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND NOSING
ACROSS NC LATER TODAY SLIPS QUICKLY TO OUR SE TONIGHT... AND EXPECT
FAIR SKIES WITH N WIND BACKING AROUND TO W AND SW OVERNIGHT....
LEADING TO STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISING THICKNESSES LATE WITH THE ONSET
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW. HAVE BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO TO 27-30.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER SEASONABLE DAY AS THICKNESSES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMALS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH NO GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT ANY LEVEL... ALTHOUGH A DECK OF MOSTLY MID
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 100-120
M. OVERALL THE COLUMN SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP DESPITE
THE HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DPVA. HIGHS AROUND
50 TO 55... A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO
THE MID 20S FRI NIGHT WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
(ALBEIT DRY) IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE DICTATED PRIMARILY BY A
`FINAL` ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ AND AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER-
TYPE SFC LOW APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NW ON SAT BEFORE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT. THE LATEST 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY FOR CENTRAL NC...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM (LITTLE CHANCE FOR MOISTURE
RECOVERY) AND THAT THE BEST DPVA /LAYER-LIFTING/ WILL OCCUR WELL TO
THE NORTH IN VICINITY OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY IN ASSOC/W COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT. ONE WOULD THINK TEMPERATURES SAT
NIGHT WOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FALLING GIVEN A TIGHTENING MSLP
GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NW...THOUGH EVEN SEVERAL HOURS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AFTER SUNSET COULD EASILY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S
GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC CLIPPER LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH... ANTICIPATE THAT A RELATIVELY
TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S IF A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE IS PRESENT MOST OF THE EVENING/NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AT LEAST A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES DIVING OUT OF CANADA AND HELPING TO AMPLIFY
THE TROUGH.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOT IN EVERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OR AMPLITUDE OF SUCH WAVES...AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS A RATHER PRONOUNCED WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GFS HAS WAVES
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE PATTERN STILL FAVORS
MOSTLY DRY SYSTEMS WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR AFTER A BRIEF
WARM UP ON MONDAY.  WITHOUT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ITS DIFFICULT TO
ADD ANY MENTION OF PRECIP TO THE FORECAST.  ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON MONDAY WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE 40S BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM THURSDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH 22Z. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PERSIST THEN THROUGH THE 18Z
VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND SLOWLY BACK...WITH A FEW
SOUTHWEST GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20KT DEVELOPING WITH MIXING
FRIDAY MORNING.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE FRIDAY EVENING...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS
FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRWI WHERE THE GFS FORECAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S KTS. THE GFS MODEL ALSO
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY TOWARD KFAY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OTHERWISE A HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DJF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1235 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM THURSDAY...

A DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WAS
DIMINISHING ON RADAR AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
CLEARING LINE WAS ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS U.S. 1...AND THE CLEARING
COULD BE SLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE RAP SOUNDINGS AND ITS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST...PLUS THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST FROM THE
HRRR WRF...INDICATE ONLY GRADUAL DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
WEST TO EAST. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE U.S. 1
CORRIDOR FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... BUT
IT MAY TAKE INTO MID-AFTERNOON OR SO IN MANY PART OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GOLDSBORO. LEFT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ABOUT AS IS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WARMING A CATEGORY IN THE
TRIAD UNDER GOOD SUN AND WHERE KGSO HAS WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S. -DJF

THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND NOSING
ACROSS NC LATER TODAY SLIPS QUICKLY TO OUR SE TONIGHT... AND EXPECT
FAIR SKIES WITH N WIND BACKING AROUND TO W AND SW OVERNIGHT....
LEADING TO STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISING THICKNESSES LATE WITH THE ONSET
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW. HAVE BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO TO 27-30.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER SEASONABLE DAY AS THICKNESSES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMALS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH NO GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT ANY LEVEL... ALTHOUGH A DECK OF MOSTLY MID
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 100-120
M. OVERALL THE COLUMN SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP DESPITE
THE HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DPVA. HIGHS AROUND
50 TO 55... A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO
THE MID 20S FRI NIGHT WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A DRY CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THICKNESS START OUR AROUND 1270M SATURDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT NOT IN TIME TO
MODERATE TEMPS VERY MUCH...WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING TO AROUND 900MB GIVING UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT.  WHILE MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE...THE MOISTURE RETURNS IS BRIEF/WEAK
AND MOST LY CONFINED TO THE MID-LEVELS AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BASED ON THIS AND THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED DRYING TREND IN MODEL RUNS.  LOWS 26-30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AT LEAST A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES DIVING OUT OF CANADA AND HELPING TO AMPLIFY
THE TROUGH.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOT IN EVERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OR AMPLITUDE OF SUCH WAVES...AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS A RATHER PRONOUNCED WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GFS HAS WAVES
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE PATTERN STILL FAVORS
MOSTLY DRY SYSTEMS WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR AFTER A BRIEF
WARM UP ON MONDAY.  WITHOUT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ITS DIFFICULT TO
ADD ANY MENTION OF PRECIP TO THE FORECAST.  ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON MONDAY WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE 40S BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM THURSDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH 22Z. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PERSIST THEN THROUGH THE 18Z
VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND SLOWLY BACK...WITH A FEW
SOUTHWEST GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20KT DEVELOPING WITH MIXING
FRIDAY MORNING.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE FRIDAY EVENING...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS
FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRWI WHERE THE GFS FORECAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S KTS. THE GFS MODEL ALSO
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY TOWARD KFAY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OTHERWISE A HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DJF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 228 PM PST THU JAN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALLOWING VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
WHILE MILD AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR COASTAL
AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. A WEAK FRONT ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER AGAIN
NEXT WEEK AND BRING MORE OF SAME WEATHER OF LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIES BETWEEN 1000
AND 3000 FEET TODAY...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING AT LEAST 20
DEGREES AS ONE GOES UP BETWEEN THESE TWO ELEVATIONS. WHILE RAWS
STATIONS HAVE A WARM BIAS ON LOW WIND...SUNNY DAYS...60S CERTAINLY
ABOUND ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER HILLS IN THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...NORTH OF I84 IN
THE PORTLAND METRO AREA AND ALONG THE KELSO TO CASTLE ROCK CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS CERTAINLY INTERESTING THAT MCMINNVILLE AND
HILLSBORO CLEARED BEFORE KTTD AND KPDX. THE HRRR INDICATES LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER NEAR KPDX
AND KTTD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT SO THESE AREAS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
GO COMPLETELY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
TRENDS. WHAT CLEARING DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS AND
FOG FILL BACK IN QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT KDLS-KTTD PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HOVERING NEAR 4MB AND
SHOULD RAMP UP LATER TONIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY 6MB...PERHAPS 7MB.
BECAUSE THE KDLS-KTTD PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ONLY BE STRONGER
FRIDAY MANY OF THE SAME AREAS WILL CLEAR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PLUS
THOSE THAT WERE OH SO CLOSE TODAY INCLUDING CLARK COUNTY AND PERHAPS
SALEM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR FRIDAY...BUT A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY.

OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO SLIDE EASTWARD
WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A DYING FRONT
INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHWEST OREGON COAST AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...DPROG/DT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS IS LESS AND
LESS LIKELY. RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC ON SUNDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ACT AS A WARM FRONT...BRINGING ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN MODELS SEEM
TO BE TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO POPS WERE KEPT GENERALLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FEW CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. AFTER THE WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN AND BY TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ALONG OR NEAR THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF
AND GFS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT SPLITS NEAR 140W EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CA COAST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
UNTIL THE FORECAST MODELS GIVE A STRONG REASON TO BELIEVE
OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE REMAIN IN PLACE AND
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

A RETURN OF DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS LIKELY FOR THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...THOUGH THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO
SEE LESS FOG AND/OR BREAK OUT EARLIER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON EAST WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHILE LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMS.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...COMPLICATED EVOLUTION TO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD LOW LEVEL AIR HAS KEPT AN ONSHORE GRADIENT DOWN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND THE PORTLAND TO TROUTDALE GRADIENT IS STILL 0.7 MB.
MEANWHILE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT IS ERODING CLOUDS FROM THE TOP
DOWN. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN MOST PERSISTENT FROM SALEM SOUTH...AND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER FROM SCAPPOOSE TO NEAR PORTLAND. STILL
DO EXPECT SOME CLEARING AT KTTD AND KPDX AND AT HIO. CHANCES ARE
THAT KSLE SEES A BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT WE RETURN
TO IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN WITH FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DEPENDING ON IF
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...AND LIKELY VERY QUICKLY. AT LEAST
PERSISTENCE RULES AT KEUG.

ALSO COMPLICATED WIND FORECAST AS THE HRRR KEEPS THE ONSHORE
GRADIENT IN PLACE FROM KPDX-KTTD AND KEEPS THE EAST WIND CONFINED
TO THE GORGE THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE MOS GUIDANCE
AND HI RESOLUTION NAM SPREADS IT IN MUCH SOONER. EXPECT THAT IT
WILL EVENTUALLY GET IN AS THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT GETS A BIT
STRONGER LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO ALLOW NORTH VALLEY CLEARING
AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY. KMD

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO LIFR FOG AND OR LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH MORNING...THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY IN THE EAST OPERATIONS AREA WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO ERODE CLOUDS OR AT LEAST LIFT CLOUDS AND VSBYS WITH GOOD
CLEARING FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  KMD

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN WEAK PRES GRADIENTS AND E WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS...THOUGH EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT FROM TIME TO
TIME...MAINLY ON FRI. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT NOT MUCH
IN WAY OF WIND. WILL SEE SEVERAL SWELL TRAINS OF 10 TO 12 FT
ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.       ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1117 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 955 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.
SOME SNOW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE OF THE ACTIVITY IS
REACHING THE GROUND. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE THREAT OF SNOW
FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING
WORDING BUT NO BIG CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SLOW WAA HAS BEGUN TO TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE NEAR 30 IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH 20S TO THE EAST WHERE WINDS HAVEN`T QUITE
PICKED UP YET. TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF THE CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE WE QUICKLY WARM BY
LATE MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH...WARMING US INTO THE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND BACK THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL MOVE THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH...SO NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...JUST A SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLY BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR 50 DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEFLY TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST BUT ENOUGH TO REALLY
MODIFY THE AIRMASS TOO MUCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...MLK DAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...
MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
WE REMAIN UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO BE IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
DOMINANT AND HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO STAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (16/18Z-17/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS STRONG AND GUSTY
FROM THE SW-W THIS AFTERNOON...WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE W-NW FRIDAY MORNING.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  53  29  35  25 /  10  10   0   0
MKL  50  23  31  18 /  10  10  10   0
JBR  51  22  33  21 /  10  10   0   0
TUP  53  28  38  21 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 345 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING THE PASSING 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS...AND SHIFTS THIS
AREA EAST OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE BY 02Z FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1/2 INCH IN ANY HEAVIER ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING. HRRR AND THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE INDICATING A BREAK IN
THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IN DENDRITE ZONE AS THE EVENING GOES ON. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SO THE DRY
PERIOD MAY INDEED OCCUR.

FOR NOW...WENT WITH LOWER POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTHWEST IF DRYING
OCCURS AS SHOWN IN MODELS. CONTINUED TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN THE
EVENING...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SOME DRIFTING ISSUES MAY OCCUR ON
NORTH TO SOUTH ROADS THIS EVENING.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITHIN DENDRITE ZONE. THIS CORRESPONDS
WITH NEXT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AFFECTING THE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SO...BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE SCATTERED RANGE DURING
THIS PERIOD. THINGS DRY OUT IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO
BROUGHT DRY CONDITIONS THERE. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. THESE VALUES LINGER ON
FRIDAY. WENT SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH AND CENTRAL...WITH 10 TO
12 ABOVE NORTH. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS
WEST...TO THE LOWER 20S FAR EAST. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO THE 10 TO
15 BELOW ZERO RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.


.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

RIDGING BRINGS A QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT THEN FOCUS IS ON
VIGOROUS...COMPACT SHORT WAVE DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 160 KNOT JET DROPPING A SURFACE LOW
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL MN...OVER THE
VICINITY OF ROCHESTER/LA CROSSE TO NEAR OR SOUTH OF CHICAGO BY 00Z
SUNDAY

12Z ECMWF NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND GEMNH
WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN
12Z NAM AND THE 00Z ECMWF.

NAM AND GEM KEEP WAA PCPN OUT OF CWA PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY...WITH
GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH BRING SNOW INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z. WILL ACKNOWLEDGE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
FAR WEST AFTER 09Z.

RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITH IMPRESSIVE 850-300MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSING THE REGION...WITH OMEGA OF 8 TO 10 MICROBARS
INTERSECTING THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE.

EVERYONE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE MORNING...THEN
TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL A QUESTION TO
AMOUNTS. NAM THE OUTLIER WITH HIGHER QPF...WHICH HAS BEEN A
REPEATING TREND THIS WINTER. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF QPF AND
SNOW RATIOS WHICH YIELDS FROM 2 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE FAR SW AND FAR
NE...UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE SE CWA WITH A CONSENSUS LOW TRACK
BRINGING THE AXIS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF A
DELLS...WATERTOWN TO KENOSHA LINE. IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER WEST
THAN CURRENT FORECAST...IT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LAKE-ENHANCED/
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW TO THE EAST.

LOWS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 925 MB THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
REGION AT 06Z THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS WITH WAA BRING STEADY
TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK. DIFFERING
TRACKS OF SYSTEM BRINGS VARYING DEGREES OF WARMTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. BLENDED TEMPS BRING HIGHS AROUND 20 TO 25.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRY WEATHER WITH WEAK RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS
SLOWLY COOL WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS CLOSED UPPER LOW AROUND HUDSON BAY
DEEPENS...BRINGS STEADY TEMPS WITH ANOTHER SLOW RISE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED OF TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING -8C TO -10C 925MB
TEMPS INTO SRN WI BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF STILL AT OR
ABOVE 0C AT 00Z MONDAY. A CONSENSUS YIELDS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT IF THE WARMER NAM AND ECMWF
VERIFY...COULD SEE TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LOW.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT TO DEGREE OF COLD AIR BEHIND COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO -20C TO -25C BY TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON MODEL.
ADJUSTED ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD TO REFLECT COLDER LOOK. THE
LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF SURFACE LOW ON GEM...BUT ENOUGH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION UNDER CLOSED HUDSON BAY LOW TO WARRANT
POPS. MODELS KEEP AREA DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED PARADE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COULD BRING AT LEAST ROUNDS OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BETTER
CHANCE COMES WITH DEEPER WAVE THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THOUGH DIFFERING
MODEL TIMING SMEARS LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VISIBILITIES BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WITH CEILINGS OF 1000 TO 1500
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST NORTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY AT MADISON BY 22Z THURSDAY...AND AT THE EASTERN
SITES BY 00Z FRIDAY. SOME BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS EXPECTED
ON NORTH TO SOUTH RUNWAYS. A QUICK 1/2 INCH OR SO IN A HALF HOUR IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 02Z TO 06Z
FRIDAY...WITH VFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS. GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...BUT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES MUCH.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AT MADISON...AND THE AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN SITES.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. AGAIN...COULD
SEE A QUICK 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IN A HALF HOUR WITH ANY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS...TOTALS UP TO AN INCH AT BEST. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LINGER...BUT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY ONCE AGAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY...AFTER A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THESE WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE FALLING SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT.
ANY HIGH WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS THIS EVENING WILL SUBSIDE BY
LATER TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH WAVES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM